Why is the price of oil so low now? In fact, why are all commodity prices so low? I see the problem as being an affordability issue that has been hidden by a growing debt bubble. As this debt bubble has expanded, it has kept the sales prices of commodities up with the cost of extraction (Figure 1), even though wages have not been rising as fast as commodity prices since about the year 2000. Now many countries are cutting back on the rate of debt growth because debt/GDP ratios are becoming unreasonably high, and because the productivity of additional debt is falling.
If wages are stagnating, and debt is not growing very rapidly, the price of commodities tends to fall back to what is affordable by consumers. This is the problem we are experiencing now (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Author’s illustration of problem we are now encountering.
I will explain the situation more fully in the form of a presentation. It can be downloaded in PDF form: Oops! The world economy depends on an energy-related debt bubble. Let’s start with the first slide, after the title slide.
Slide 2
Growth is incredibly important to the economy (Slide 2). If the economy is growing, we keep needing to build more buildings, vehicles, and roads, leading to more jobs. Existing businesses find demand for their products rising. Because of this rising demand, profits of many businesses can be expected to rise over time, thanks to economies of scale.
Something that is not as obvious is that a growing economy enables much greater use of debt than would otherwise be the case. When an economy is growing, as illustrated by the ever-increasing sizes of circles, it is possible to “borrow from the future.” This act of borrowing gives consumers the ability to buy more things now than they would otherwise would be able to afford–more “demand” in the language of economists. Customers can thus afford cars and homes, and businesses can afford factories. Companies issuing stock can expect that price of shares will most likely rise in the future.
Without economic growth, it would be very hard to have the financial system that we have today, with its stable banks, insurance companies, and pension plans. The pattern of economic growth makes interest and dividend payments easier to make, and reduces the likelihood of debt default. It allows financial planners to set up savings plans for retirement, and gives people confidence that the system will “be there” when it is needed. Without economic growth, debt is more of a last resort–something that might land a person in debtors’ prison if things go wrong.
Slide 3
It should be obvious that the economic growth story cannot be true indefinitely. We would run short of resources, and population would grow too dense. Pollution, including CO2 pollution, would become an increasing problem.
Slide 4
The question without an obvious answer is “When does the endless economic growth story become untrue?” If we listen to the television, the answer would seem to be somewhere in the distant future, if a slowdown in economic growth happens at all.
Most of us who read financial newspapers are aware that more debt and lower interest rates are the types of stimulus provided to the economy, to try to help it grow faster. Our current “run up” in debt seems to have started about the time of World War II. This growing debt allows “demand” for goods like houses, cars, and factories to be higher. Because of this higher demand, commodity prices can be higher than they otherwise would be.
Thus, if debt is growing quickly enough, it allows the sales price of energy products and other commodities to stay as high as their cost of extraction. The problem is that debt/GDP ratios can’t rise endlessly. Once debt/GDP ratios stop rising quickly enough, commodity prices are likely to fall. In fact, the run-up in debt is a bubble, which is itself in danger of collapsing, because of too many debt defaults.
Slide 5
The economy is made up of many parts, including businesses and consumers. The consumers have a second role as well–many of them are workers, and thus get their wages from the system. Governments have many roles, including providing financial systems, building roads, and providing laws and regulations. The economy gradually grows and changes over time, as new businesses are added, and others leave, and as laws change. Consumers make their decisions based on available products in the marketplace and they amount they have to spend. Thus, the economy is a self-organized networked system–see my post Why Standard Economic Models Don’t Work–Our Economy is a Network.
One key feature of a self-organized networked system is that it tends to grow over time, as more energy becomes available. As its grows, it changes in ways that make it difficult to shrink back. For example, once cars became the predominant method of transportation, cities changed in ways that made it difficult to go back to using horses for transportation. There are now not enough horses available for this purpose, and there are no facilities for “parking” horses in cities when they are not needed. And, of course, we don’t have services in place for cleaning up the messes that horses leave.
Slide 6
When businesses start, they need capital. Very often they sell shares of stock, and they may get loans from banks. As companies grow and expand, they typically need to buy more land, buildings and equipment. Very often loans are used for this purpose.
As the economy grows, the amount of loans outstanding and the number of shares of stock outstanding tends to grow.
Slide 7
Businesses compete by trying to make goods and services more efficiently than the competition. Human labor tends to be expensive. For example, a sweater knit by hand by someone earning $10 per hour will be very expensive; a sweater knit on a machine will be much less expensive. If a company can add machines to leverage human labor, the workers using those machines become more productive. Wages rise, to reflect the greater productivity of workers, using the machines.
We often think of the technology behind the machines as being important, but technology is only part of the story. Machines reflecting the latest in technology are made using energy products (such as coal, diesel and electricity) and operated using energy products. Without the availability of affordable energy products, ideas for inventions would remain just that–simply ideas.
The other thing that is needed to make technology widely available is some form of financing–debt or equity financing. So a three-way partnership is needed for economic growth: (1) ideas for inventions, (2) inexpensive energy products and other resources to make them happen, and (3) some sort of financing (debt/equity) for the undertaking.
Workers play two roles in the economy; besides making products and services, they are also consumers. If their wages are rising fast enough, thanks to growing efficiency feeding back as higher wages, they can buy increasing amounts of goods and services. The whole system tends to grow. I think of this as the normal “growth pump” in the economy.
If the “worker” growth pump isn’t working well enough, it can be supplemented for a time by a “more debt” growth pump. This is why debt-based stimulus tends to work, at least for a while.
Slide 8
There are really two keys to economic growth–besides technology, which many people assume is primary. One key is the rising availability of cheap energy. When cheap energy is available, businesses find it affordable to add machines and equipment such as trucks to allow workers to be more productive, and thus start the economic growth cycle.
The other key is availability of debt, to finance the operation. Businesses use debt, in combination with equity financing, to add new plants and equipment. Customers find long-term debt helpful in financing big-ticket items such as homes and cars. Governments use debt for many purposes, including “stimulating the economy”–trying to get economic growth to speed up.
Slide 9
Slide 9 illustrates how workers play a key role in the economy. If businesses can create jobs with rising wages for workers, these workers can in turn use these rising wages to buy an increasing quantity of goods and services.
It is the ability of workers to afford goods like homes, cars, motorcycles, and boats that helps the economy to grow. It also helps to keep the price of commodities up, because making these goods uses commodities like iron, steel, copper, oil, and coal.
Slide 10
In the 1900 to 1998 period, the price of electricity production fell (shown by the falling purple, red, and green lines) as the production of electricity became more efficient. At the same time, the economy used an increasing quantity of electricity (shown by the rising black line). The reason that electricity use could grow was because electricity became more affordable. This allowed businesses to use more of it to leverage human labor. Consumers could use more electricity as well, so that they could finish tasks at home more quickly, such as washing clothes, leaving more time to work outside the home.
Slide 11
If we compare (1) the amount of energy consumed worldwide (all types added together) with (2) the world GDP in inflation-adjusted dollars, we find a very high correlation.
Slide 12
In Slide 12, GDP (represented by the top line on the chart–the sum of the red and the blue areas) was growing very slowly back in the 1820 to 1870 period, at less than 1% per year. This growth rate increased to a little under 2% a year in the 1870 to 1900 and 1900 to 1950 periods. The big spurt in growth of nearly 5% per year came in the 1950 to 1965 period. After that, the GDP growth rate has gradually slowed.
On Slide 12, the blue area represents the growth rate in energy products. We can calculate this, based on the amount of energy products used. Growth in energy usage (blue) tends to be close to the total GDP growth rate (sum of red and blue), suggesting that most economic growth comes from increased energy use. The red area, which corresponds to “efficiency/technology,” is calculated by subtraction. The period of time when the efficiency/technology portion was greatest was between 1975 and 1995. This was the period when we were making major changes in the automobile fleet to make cars more fuel efficient, and we were converting home heating to more fuel-efficient heating, not using oil.
Slide 13
If we look at economic growth rates and the growth in energy use over shorter periods, we see a similar pattern. The growth in GDP is a little higher than the growth in energy consumption, similar to the pattern we saw on Slide 12.
If we look carefully at Slide 13, we see that changes in the growth rate for energy (blue line) tends to happen first and is followed by changes in the GDP growth rate (red line). This pattern of energy changes occurring first suggests that growth in the use of energy is a cause of economic growth. It also suggests that lack of growth in the use of energy is a reason for world recessions. Recently, the rate of growth in the world’s consumption of energy has dropped (Slide 13), suggesting that the world economy is heading into a new recession.
Slide 14
There is nearly always an investment of time and resources, in order to make something happen–anything from the growing of food to the mining of coal. Very often, it takes more than one person to undertake the initial steps; there needs to be a way to pay the other investors. Another issue is the guarantee of payment for resources gathered from a distance.
Slide 15
We rarely think about how all-pervasive promises are. Many customs of early tribes seem to reflect informal rules regarding the sharing of goods and services, and penalties if these rules are not followed.
Now, financial promises have to some extent replaced informal customs. The thing that we sometimes forget is that the bonds companies offer for sale, and the stock that companies issue, have no value unless the company issuing the stock or bonds is actually successful. As a result, the many promises that are made are, in a sense, contingent promises: the bond will be repaid, if the company is still in business (or if the company is dissolved, if the amount received from the sale of assets is great enough). The future value of a company’s stock also depends on the success of the company.
Slide 16
Governments become an important part of the web of promises. Governments collect their assessments through taxes. As an economy grows, the amount of government services tends to increase, and taxes tend to increase.
The roles of governments and businesses vary somewhat depending on the type of economy of a country. In a sense, this type of variation is not important. It is the functioning of the overall networked system that is important.
Slide 17
There was a very large run up in US debt about the time of World War II, not just in the US, but also in the other countries involved in World War II.
Adding the debt for World War II helped pull the US out of the lingering effects of the Depression. Many women started working outside the home for the first time. There was a ramp-up of production, aimed especially at the war effort.
Slide 18 – From The United States’ 65-Year Debt Bubble
What does a country do when a war is over? Send the soldiers back home again, without jobs, and the women who had been working to support the war effort back home again, also without jobs? This was a time period when non-government debt ramped up in the US. In fact, it seems to have ramped up elsewhere around the world as well. The new debt helped support many growing industries at the time–helping rebuild Europe, and helping build homes and cars for citizens in the US. As noted previously, both energy use and GDP soared during this time period.
Slide 19
I haven’t found very good records of debt going back very far, but what I can piece together suggests that the rate of debt growth (total debt, including both government and private debt) was similar to the rate of growth of GDP, up until about 1975. Then, debt began growing much more rapidly than GDP.
Slide 20
The big issue that led to a big increase in the need for debt in the early 1970s was an increase in the price of oil. Oil is the single largest source of energy. It is used in many important ways, including making food, transporting coal, and extracting metals. Thus, when the price of oil rises, so does the price of many other goods.
As we noted on Slides 11, 12, and 13, it is the growing quantity of energy consumption that is important in providing economic growth. The natural tendency with high energy prices is to cut back on energy-related consumption. Increasing debt, if it is at a sufficiently low interest rate, helps counteract this natural tendency toward less energy usage. For example, the availability of debt at a low interest makes it possible for more consumers to purchase big-ticket items like houses, cars, and motorcycles. These products indirectly lead to the growing consumption of energy products, because energy is used in making these big-ticket items and because they use energy in their continuing operation.
Slide 21
Many people have been concerned about what they call “peak oil”–the idea that oil supply would suddenly drop because we reach geological limits. I think that this is a backward analysis regarding how the system works. There is plenty of oil available, if only the price would rise high enough and stay high for long enough.
Much of this oil is non-conventional oil–oil that cannot be extracted using the inexpensive approaches we used in the early days of oil production. In some cases, non-conventional oil is so viscous it needs to be melted with steam, before it will flow freely. Some of the unconventional oil can only be extracted by “fracking.” Some of the unconventional oil is very deep under the ocean. Near Brazil, this oil is under a layer of salt. If prices would remain high enough, for long enough, we could get this oil out.
The problem is that in order to get this unconventional oil out, costs are higher. These higher costs are sometimes described as reflecting diminishing returns–more capital goods are needed, as are more resources and human labor, to produce additional barrels of oil. The situation is equivalent to the system of oil extraction becoming less and less efficient, because we need to add more steps to the operation, raising the cost of producing finished oil products. The higher price of oil products spills over to a higher cost for producing food, because oil is used in operating farm equipment and transporting food to market. The higher cost of oil also spills over to the cost of almost anything that is shipped long distance, because oil is used as a transportation fuel.
You will remember that increased efficiency is what makes an economy grow faster (Slide 7, also Slide 37). Diminishing returns is the opposite of increased efficiency, so it tends to push the economy toward contraction. We are running into many other forms of increased inefficiency. One such type of inefficiency involves adding devices to reduce pollution, for example in electricity production. Another type of inefficiency involves switching to higher-cost methods of generation, such as solar panels and offshore wind, to reduce pollution. No matter how beneficial these techniques may be from some perspectives, from the perspective of economic growth, they are a problem. They tend to make the economy grow more slowly, rather than faster.
The standard workaround for slow economic growth is more debt. If the interest rate is low enough and the length of the loan is long enough, consumers can “sort of” afford increasingly expensive cars and homes. Young people with barely adequate high school grades can “sort of” afford higher education. With cheap debt, businesses can afford to buy back company stock, making reported earnings per share rise–even though after the buy-back, the actual investment used to generate future earnings is lower. With sufficient cheap debt, shale companies can create models showing that even if their cash flow is negative at $100 per barrel oil prices ($2 out for $1 in) and even more negative at $50 per barrel ($4 out for $1 in), somehow, the companies will be profitable in the very long run.
The technique of adding more debt doesn’t fix the underlying problem of growing inefficiency, instead of growing efficiency. Instead, as more debt is added, the additional debt becomes increasingly unproductive. It mostly provides a temporary cover-up for economic growth problems, rather than fixing them.
Slide 22
A common belief has been that as we reach limits of a finite world, oil prices and perhaps other prices will spike. In my view, this is a wrong understanding of how things work.
What we have is a combination of rising costs of production for many kinds of goods at the same time that wages are not rising very quickly. This problem can be temporarily hidden by a rising amount of debt at ever-lower interest rates, but this is not a long-term solution.
We end up with a conflict between the prices businesses need and the prices that workers can afford. For a while, this conflict can be resolved by a spike in prices, as we experienced in the 2005-2008 period. These spikes tend to lead to recession, for reasons shown on the next slide. Recession tends to lead to lower prices again.
Slide 26
The image on Slide 26 shows an exaggeration to make clear the shift that takes place, if the price of oil spikes. When the price of one necessary part of consumers’ budgets increases–namely the food and gasoline segment–there is a problem. Debt payments already committed to, such as those on homes and automobiles, remain constant. Consumers find that they must cut back on discretionary spending–in other words, “Everything else,” shown in green. This tends to lead to recession.
Slide 27
If we look at oil prices since 2000, we see that the period is marked by steep rises and falls in oil prices. In Slides 27 – 29, we will see that changes in the price of oil tend to correspond to changes in debt availability and cost.
In 2008, oil prices rose to a peak in July, and then dropped precipitously to under $40 per barrel in December of the same year. Slide 27 shows that the United States began its program of Quantitative Easing (QE) in late 2008. This helped to lower interest rates, especially longer-term interest rates. China and a number of other countries also raised their debt levels during this period. We would expect greater debt and lower interest rates to increase demand for commodities, and thus raise their prices, and in fact, this is what happened between December 2008 and 2011.
The drop in prices in 2014 corresponds to the time that the US phased out its program of QE, and China cut back on debt availability. Here, the economy is encountering less cheap debt availability, and the impact is in the direction expected–a drop in prices.
Slide 28 – From The United States’ 65-Year Debt Bubble
If we go back to the steep drop in oil prices in July 2008, we find that the timing of the drop in prices matches the timing when US non-governmental debt started falling. In my academic article, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis, I show that this drop in debt outstanding takes place for both mortgages and credit card debt.
Slide 29
The US government, as well as other governments around the world, responded by sharply increasing their debt levels. This increase in governmental debt (known as sovereign debt) is part of what helped oil and other commodity prices to rise again after 2008.
Slide 30
We often hear about the drop in oil prices, but the drop in prices is far more widespread. Nearly all commodities have dropped in price since 2011. Today’s commodity price levels are below the cost of production for many producers, for all of these types of commodities. In fact, for oil, there is hardly any country that can produce at today’s price level, even Saudi Arabia and Iraq, when needed tax levels by governments are considered as well.
Producers don’t go out of business immediately. Instead, they tend to “hold on” as best they can, deferring new investment and trying to generate as much cash flow as possible. Because most of them have no alternative way of making a living, they often continue producing, as best they can, even with low prices, deferring the day of bankruptcy as long as possible. Thus, the glut of supply doesn’t go away quickly. Instead, low prices tend to get worse, and low prices tend to persist for a very long period.
Slide 31
In 2008, we had an illustration of what can go wrong when the economy runs into too many headwinds. In that situation, the price of oil and other commodities dropped dramatically.
Now we have a somewhat different set of headwinds, but the impact is the same–the price of commodities has dropped dramatically. Wages are not rising much, so they are not providing the necessary uplift to the economy. Without wage growth, the only other approach to growing the economy is debt, but this reaches limits as well. See my post, Why We Have an Oversupply of Almost Everything (Oil, labor, capital, etc.)
There is some evidence that the Great Depression in the 1930s involved the collapse of a debt bubble. It seems to me that it may very well have also involved wages that were falling in inflation-adjusted terms for a significant number of wage-earners. I say this, because farmers were moving to the city in the early 1900s, as mechanization led to lower prices for food and less need for farmers. I haven’t seen figures on incomes of farmers, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they were dropping as well, especially for the many farmers who couldn’t afford mechanization. Wages for those who wanted to work as laborers on farms were likely also dropping, since they now needed to compete with mechanization.
In many ways, the situation that led up to the Great Depression appears to be not too different from our situation today. In the early 1900s, many farmers were being displaced by changes to agriculture. Now, wages for many are depressed, as workers in developed economies increasingly compete with workers in historically low-wage countries. Additional mechanization of manufacturing also plays a role in reducing job opportunities.
If my conjecture is right, the Great Depression may have been caused by problems similar to what we are seeing today–wages that were too low for a large segment of the economy, thus reducing economic growth, and a temporary debt bubble that tended to cover up the wage problem. Once the debt bubble collapsed, demand for commodities of all types collapsed, and prices collapsed. This problem was very difficult to fix.
Slide 32
When we add more debt to the economy, users of debt-financing find that more of their future income goes toward repaying that debt, cutting off the ability to buy other goods. For example, a young person with a large balance of student loans is unlikely to be able to afford buying a house as well.
A way of somewhat mitigating the problem of too much income going toward debt repayment is lowering interest rates. In fact, in quite a few countries, the interest rates governments pay on debt are now negative.
Slide 33
If the cost of producing commodities continues to rise, but the price that consumers can afford to pay does not rise sufficiently, at some point there is a problem. Instead of continuing to rise, prices start to fall below their cost of production. This drop can be very sharp, as it was in 2008.
The falling price of commodities is the same situation we encountered in 2008 (Slide 27); it is the same situation we reached at the beginning of the Great Depression back in 1929. It seems to happen when wage growth is inadequate, and the debt level is not growing fast enough to hide the inadequate wage growth. This time around, we are also challenged by the cost of producing commodities rising, something that was not a problem at the time of the Great Depression.
Slide 34
If we think about the situation, having prices fall behind the cost of production is a disaster. We can’t get oil out of the ground, if prices are too low. Farmers can’t afford to grow food commercially, if prices remain too low.
Prices of assets such as the value of farmland, the value of oil held by leases, and the value of metal ores in mines will fall. Assets such as these secure many loans. If an oil company has a loan secured by the value of oil held by lease, and this value falls permanently, there is a significant chance that the oil company will default on the loan.
The usual belief is, “The cure for low prices is low prices.” In other words, the situation will fix itself. What really happens, though, is that everyone is so afraid of a big crash that all parties make extreme efforts to avoid a crash. In fact, there is evidence today that banks are “looking the other way,” rather than taking steps to cut off lending to shale drillers, when current operations are clearly unprofitable.
By the time the crash does come around, it is likely to be a huge one, affecting many segments of the economy at once. Oil exporters and exporters of other commodities will be especially affected. Some of them, such as Venezuela, Yemen, and even Iraq may collapse. Financial institutions are likely to find themselves burdened with many “underwater loans.” The usual technique of lowering interest rates to try to aid the economy doesn’t look like it would work this time, because rates are already so low. Governments are not in sufficiently good financial condition to be able to bail out all of the banks and others needing assistance. In fact, governments may fail. The fall of the former Soviet Union occurred when oil prices were low.
Once there are major debt defaults, lenders will want to wait to see that prices will stay consistently high for a period (say, two or three years) before extending credit again. Thus, even if commodity prices should bounce back in 2017, it is doubtful that producers will be able to find financing at a reasonable interest rate until, say, 2020. By that time, depletion will have taken its toll. It will be impossible to make up for the many years of low investment at that time. Production is likely to continue falling, even if prices do rise.
The indirect impact of low oil and other commodity prices is likely to be a collapse in our current debt bubble. This collapsing bubble may lead to the failures of banks and even governments. It seems quite possible that these indirect impacts will affect us most, even more than the direct loss of commodities. These impacts could come quite quickly–in the next few months, in some cases.
Slide 35
Stocks, bonds, pension programs, insurance programs, bank accounts, and many other things of a financial nature seem to be very “solid” things–things that we can expect to be here and grow, for many years to come. Yet these things, directly and indirectly, depend on the ability of our system to produce goods and services. If something goes terribly wrong, we may find that financial assets have little more value than the pieces of paper that represent them.
Slide 36
I won’t try to explain Slide 36 further.
Slide 37
Slide 37 illustrates the principle of increased efficiency. If a smaller amount of resources and human labor can be used to create a larger amount of end product, this is growing efficiency. If more and more resources and labor are used to produce a smaller amount of end product, this is growing inefficiency.
The other part of the story is that simply automating processes is not enough. Instead, the economy must also produce a sufficiently large number of jobs, and these jobs must pay high enough wages that the workers can afford to buy the output of the economy. It is really the health of the whole interconnected system that is important.
Slide 38
Our low price problems are here now. That is why we need very cheap non-polluting energy products now, in large quantity, if there is any chance of fixing the system. These energy products must work in today’s devices, so we aren’t faced with the cost and delay involved with changing to new devices, such as cars and trucks that use a different fuel than petroleum.
Slide 39
Regarding Slides 39 and 40, we are sitting on the edge, waiting to see what will happen next.
The US economy temporarily seems to be in somewhat of a bubble, now that it does not have QE, while several other countries still do. This bubble is related to a “flight to quality,” and leads to a higher dollar, relative to other currencies. It also leads to high stock market valuations. As a result, the US economy seems to be doing better than much of the rest of the world.
Regardless of how well the US economy seems to be doing, the underlying problems of rising costs of producing commodities and prices that lag below the cost of production are still present, making the situation unstable. Wages continue to lag behind as well. We should not be too surprised if the economy starts taking major downward steps in the next few months.
Slide 40
Macy’s Blames “Tepid Spending” On Revenue Miss: Same Store Sales Tumble; Slashes Guidance
The “unexpected” weakness among US consumption, that segment accountable for 70% of US GDP, continues this morning when moments ago Macy’s reported a trifecta of weak data, reporting a miss on Q3 sales which came at $5.87 billion below the $6.1 billion expected, and down from the $6.2 billion a year ago, but also a plunge in comparable store sales which tumbled by 3.9%, far worse than the expected drop of -0.4%, and nearly three times as bad as the 1.4% drop a year ago.
Finally, M also slashed its full year same store guidance down from flat to -1.8% to -2.2% with sales projected to drop -2.7% to -3.1%, compared to a previous guidance of -1%, as contrary to the propaganda, the discretionary spending of the US consumer is bad and getting worse by the day.
Here is the company’s explanation for this debacle:
“We are disappointed that the pace of sales did not improve in the third quarter, as we had expected. Spending by domestic customers remained tepid, especially in key apparel and accessory categories. Simultaneously, the slowdown in buying by international visitors continued to significantly impact Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s stores in tourist centers, which are some of our company’s largest-volume and most profitable locations,” said Terry J. Lundgren, chairman and chief executive officer of Macy’s, Inc.
“Moving forward, we are accelerating steps needed to adapt in response to changing customer shopping preferences so we can restore our annual comparable sales growth on an owned plus licensed basis in the years ahead to the level of 2 percent to 3 percent while re-attaining an EBITDA rate as percent of sales of 14 percent.
This includes building on our strength as a leading omnichannel innovator with consistent growth in online sales,” Lundgren said. “No other retailer has our track record of mastering change and creating shareholder value with a model of customer centricity.
We have a deep and resourceful management team that is skilled in creating and executing successful strategies. Since the beginning of fiscal 2009, we have returned nearly $9 billion to shareholders. Our Total Shareholder Return has been 540 percent during that period, compared with a 121 percent increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-11/macys-tumbles-after-missing-revenue-same-store-sales-tumble-guidance-slashed-lack-sp
Death by a thousand cuts…. then one final slash taking the head off
Hm, so is the next trigger point here?
Few minutes ago clearly for the evening net traffic “Die Zeit” published the most aggresive attack on Merkel allowed in German massmedia so far. In case the article – commentary is later down or covered by other events the top page opens with her picture head deeply down like in shame and text goes:
“Angela Merkel: The Beginning of the End
Merkel “We can do it” is abolished. She herself remains silent.
So the myth ends of the crisis manager, who never loses. ”
http://www.zeit.de/index
http://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2015-11/angela-merkel-fluechtlinge-dublin
It has been crafted in plain direct language so easily robot translatable via Google as well..
So good riddance Mrs. Witch, but understandably she was just yet another figure clown..
Hopefull the event itself my stir some consequences as the heirs to the chair are even more so pandemonic figures.
The speed of the whole refugee story amazes me. It starts about four months ago. For the two months the info system tells us we love it and it is good. Then it turns. Now the info system tells us we hate it and it is bad. Now the French police are storming “camps” at 2am and firing “gas”. Where one month ago there was no thought of enforcing any law in France.
Does this mean there are factions of TPTB fighting each other?
When a hundred thousand refugees are coming, the main consern is not to have racial violence escalate. When a million refugees are coming, the main consern is how to change large parts of the economy (incl. society structures, housing, schools, job markets, shops etc. etc.) to restructure for this sudden change. But when it looks like a million each year, and no end in sight, the main consern is how to build fences on the borders to stop these millions from tipping over an already ailing economy.
People are scared.
I agree Van Kent – basic responses to scales of influx. We’ll probably see a lot more fence building.
The latest migrant invasion development is the ongoing summit of ~60heads of EU+north african countries. Yes you could guessed it, from now on Europeans will officialy pay in protection racket. It’s the decadency of late Roman Empire rehash again, hopefully Ugo Bardi will write something about it soon.
Many finiteworlders think Ugo Bardi is too positive and thinks that small solutions can help. I do not know but he is a smart guy and postet a text about this on 9/14:
http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.co.at/2015/09/fortress-europe-wall-to-keep-foreigners.html
I have learned a lot from Ugo over the years, even though I don’t always agree with him. This article is very good.
Ugo says, ” I think it can be proposed that the border fortifications were such an economic burden that they were a major factor leading to the eventual demise of the Empire.” I don’t think that Ugo makes the connection that renewable energy would be such an economic burden that it would bring down the economy in perhaps a slightly different way.
I think there will be a two fold plan from the Europeans. Firstly to help the MENA people, or actually small farm holders, in their origin countries. No need for a fence, if the millions stay outside of Europe. Secondly make human smuggling as difficult as possible.
In my view the plan was, and that’s based on the ideas of economist’s drum beating it in the media (and prior to that in halls of power) to import large mass of people to boost the demographics/debt horror charts TPTB have already seen and as a bonus mixing up the population so further austerity “reforms” down the road of effects of finite world issues would be pushed more easily in times of chaos.
Chaos they brought in but way sooner and differently they planned. For one thing, after few weeks and some early profiling/statistics screenings they realized 1/ the incoming wave is bigger they anticipated already saturating the capacities 2/ more importantely large part maybe more than 3/4 of these people were identified as abosolutely unfit for Germany to ever assimilate, no vocation, illiteracy, plus piggybacking welfare migrants of Pakistan, Albania and other countries inside the flow etc. So the workaround was “solidarity” i.e. keep the non conflicting minority of migrants with degrees or some training and dump the rest on the other countries inside Europe. That blowed up as well. And that’s linked witht the third reason this fiasco served in no time as catalyst of already disjointed union, feeding the forces of tearing it apart even quicker. And that we can’t have since the EUR project costed already so much political and economic capital. They have to stop it now, somehow without masacres. At the moment it’s still in a silly way for instance they want to return migrants into precisely the EU land of first entry but with the exception of Greece, because that’s the biggest hole in the EU border and Greece would collapse over weekend with the following domino effect on rest of the PIIGS and NordEUR itself.
If it wasn’t so sad, how they are destroying Europe, it would be the best comedy ever.
Fyi http://www.startribune.com/minneapolis-fed-taps-neel-kashkari-key-figure-in-government-bailout-as-new-president/344696172/
I just keep imagining the people who participate on this blog in wheelchairs talking about collapse in 20 years. Not that I think the blog is incorrect in fact I think Gails work is one of the few that is giving a accurate assessment. I feel much much more informed because of Gails writings. But its still holding together. Wouldnt it be rather dismal if one lived ones whole life as if collapse was going to happen for sure next week but it never came?
Easy. It’s up to you evaluate the risks, timelines vis a vis your personal abilities, surroundings etc. Life itself is the utmost risk but you can’t bet 100% on single outcome that’s plainly gambling. However hedging your options e.g. 20% fast collapse, 70% slow grinding peak/plateau collapse, 10% techno future corcnocupia is one approach possible. I’m not saying it’s the best or correct one and even inside this approach several people would perform quite different sub strategies.
I like this approach. Hadn’t seen it like that. I tend to throw everything in one direction. Not good, I know. But individual energy and resources are limited if you know what I mean. For the past seven years I was throwing everything at the techno future cornucopia in the hope that everything else would sort itself out. In other words, trusting that innovation would solve all problems. Now I’m in the fast collpase camp. I just don’t see how slow grind and plateaus can be sustained for very long when something snaps. It’s an illusion sustained by the band that keeps playing until their part of the ship goes down too.
Another analogy I use for this is that of a merry go round that gradually increases its speed. At first, everything is wonderful, the ride is smooth, people step off and on with ease, its safe for children and the elderly. But as the speed increases the less secure begin not to participate. The more adventurous continue to jump on and off. They can handle risk with ease. The ride is already taking in less money though and it can’t stop increasing the speed for some reason. At some point, the remaining people on the ride can’t jump off. It’s going too fast. So they tighten their grip and pretend that everything is perfectly normal. Some of them have stopped smiling though. They begin to suspect that something is up. As the ride reaches its maximum speed the remaining riders are thrown off and everyone tries to run away as the merry go round explodes.
As you can imagine, the “20/70/10” scenarios and similar ones can be approached simultaneously by getting mostly the same type of gear and literature, but might widely differ on subjects for instance in case of choosing location, employment/business, family preferences-schools for children, care for elderly parents etc.
In terms of fast collapse and to some extent it’s valid for slower grind, you have to be honest with yourself first, but on the utmost very brutal sincere type of honesty. For instance, what kind of health and age issues do I have already, including hereditary background in the family like bad knees, spine, tooths, cancer etc. Simply, is it worth it “duke it out” with such genetics material at all ? Again, remember I said brutal self honesty. Those very few guys emerging on the opposing bank of the “River fast collapse” are going to be pretty special breed of characters and bodily functions.
Agreed. Ruthlessness will continue to be rewarded post collapse.
Good analogy
Thanks. S’funny, I didn’t know what to think of your posts when I first read this blog. Now, I’ve become somewhat of a fan and look forward to them. You have a way with words and cut through the BS like nothing I’ve seen before. I can assure you that the effect is profound. Have you ever seen this quote…
“Very few beings really seek knowledge in this world. Mortal or immortal, few really ask. On the contrary, they try to wring from the unknown the answers they have already shaped in their own minds – justifications, confirmations, forms of consolation without which they can’t go on. To really ask is to open the door to the whirlwind. The answer may annihilate the question and the questioner.”
– Anne Rice, The Vampire Lestat
Fast Eddy = the whirlwind.
Excellent quote — I had not heard it.
Along the same lines… I enjoy the writings of Colonel Kurtz…. even though he is not real …. (Heart of Darkness is of course real — and contains some outstanding thoughts as well… civilization is indeed a thin veneer…. what a great observation!)
His way of thinking and his actions contain excellent messages …. not literally (nailing heads on stakes is a bit much ….) … but his willingness to ‘open the door to the whirlwind’
I think “fast v slow” is overly simplistic and assumes a global uniformity that does not exist.
Fast vs. Slow > Usually, it’s meant as shortcut to further detailed discussion..
To the contrary global uniformity does exist in the sense that as of now everybody still has to dance around the holy cult of debt based money and it’s Mr. EverGrowth The Prophet. And hence true global uniformity stops functioning only when/if something of substance changes/brakes in that formula. Not there yet at least in the visible plane.
We may see an answer in Greece. As soon as the ECB gets tired of lending money to itself.
Dead on.
I have thought long and hard about this. Maybe I had too much time on my hands. But the sense of foreboding has been growing for the past seven years, not diminishing. And believe me, I was hitting the hopium pipe as hard as I could to overcome this. Techno-fantasy futures galore! In the end, wish-making only gets you so far. Sooner or later, cold hard reality slaps you in the face. And here we are. Staring into the abyss.
So, what to do, what to do?
Even a fleeting knowledge of the true situation we’re in will change your brain chemistry forever. In fact, the more anyone delves, the more hope drains away. When your salvation requires a miracle, even the most faithful begin to lose their faith.
An honest person will put their emotions to one side and stare at the cold, hard facts. When what they see is not to their liking, they may mourn or scramble to find solutions i.e. miracles to ease the pain.
Is there a slim chance that one of these miracles takes hold and lifts us out of the pit? Possibly. Akin to winning the galactic lottery and have aliens decloak as they shower us with their antimatter reactors and lollipops for all. A probability nearing zero.
I would say that things are absolutely not holding together. Global trade is fighting an uphill battle and losing. And our whole existence is dependent on that trade. We just haven’t reached the tipping point yet when the whole cart gets overturned. I would like to believe that there are more tricks up the central bankers sleeves, but more than anything, we’re dealing with fundamental laws of nature. Systems grow, they reach a sustained peak for a while and then they implode. Not even stars escape it.
So what do you do when the odds are stacked against you? I carry on as best as possible and make a few adjustments accordingly. Personally, I will never snuff out the candle of hope that I carry in my heart. I need it. Others can do as they see fit. But no, I don’t believe in prepping for the apocalypse and such. Now that is a waste of energy.
My question, to stimulate some interesting reflection, would be: “If, say a billionaire like James Cameron came to your door, and hired you to be his personal prepping consultant, what consultancy would you offer Cameron?”
Now, if you had all the resources for prepping you could possibly imagine, what would you do?
My answer would probably be something like: “Lets start a Organic Food Co-Ops. You don´t have to be a farmer, if you´ve got a thousand people Co-Op, who buy their weekly share of locally grown food from dozens of local organic farmers.”
Can´t imagine any sort of scenario where hunkering down alone, would beat pre-established relationships with many local farms and doing things together, getting to know the other Co-Op-people. In my mind, the best way to survive the collapse of civilization is to have a thousand people on your side, have food, warmth, security and entertainment.
But that´s just me.
James Cameron has bought up loads of farming operations in New Zealand….
Now Cameron just needs a loads of people he can trust. Good for him, though, smart man.
The NZ immigration videos tell me skilled farm labor is in shortage in NZ. By skilled they mean holds a drivers license. LOL. Maybe I can get a job on Cameron’s farm. That is how my grandparents made it through the depression on the farm of the president of Chase Manhattan bank. All the food they and he needed.
There is a point system — I believe you need to hit 100 points or forget about getting into New Zealand…. age, health, skills, language, education, etc….
Potential employer must advertise the position and demonstrate it is impossible to fill locally.
I doubt 1% of the people making their way into the EU would qualify to get into New Zealand.
Probably he likes the prospect of upto ~2weeks extended “bau” after the impact.
Animated map: http://www.nucleardarkness.org/warconsequences/hundredfiftytonessmoke/
https://fas.org/pir-pubs/nuclear-war-nuclear-winter-and-human-extinction/
The problem of consumer-producer CoOp arrangement is that you need high ratio of solvent consumers vs. single food producers, i.e. diversified economy huming on some high EROEI base line energy source like fossil fuels up to this time. That’s historical anomaly, it used to work like this only in smaller cities with most of the people still in the country. The normal model looks rather differently everybody is engaged in its own food production (4/5) and small minority (1/5) of the society is in crafts, arts, administration, army, clergy etc.
Hanuman, SHTF has so many variables and unknowns, that its extremely hard to say exactly what you can use and where, after the dust settles, if the dust settles. But most likely there will be a huge need for all sorts of infrastructure build up (meaning dragging trailers to farms, or building a barns and root cellars). And because such things as money, banks and capital is lacking, the only way of building something is by having work parties or voluntary work, which co-ops can manage. And when fossile fuels run out, you´ve got the extra hands you need to continue farming.Two different plans, Pre-Collapse and Post-Collapse, n’est-ce pas?
Sorry, I should have said that I wouldn’t do more than what you stated here – all very good advice. I merely meant that I wouldn’t go beyond that and build underground bunkers filled to the brim with dried food and assorted weaponry! Not a bad idea, but I won’t be doing it.
Javier I disagree. Maybe because the 10 people that make up our family are builders, farmers and hunters and fishermen but we are not just going to sit around and let this “thing” roll over us. If you are in the eastern part of north America – move! Find a place far enough away from a city that you don’t get sucked in the nightmare that awaits all city dwellers. Learn how to process a chicken how to castrate a pig and grow a permaculture garden. If you know what is coming and decide to sit and wait for it – well that’s a waste of energy. Besides prepping is kinda fun, I’m learning basic organic chemistry and about to teach my grandchildren how to make gunpowder from chicken shit!
“Besides prepping is kinda fun”
Definitely better than sitting around Facebooking or watching Dancing with Stars…. working in the garden is also good exercise — and the feeling of growing stuff is also mentally therapeutic + it makes you feel like you have not just given up….
Don’t worry, I only said what I said because I’m already in about as good a location as I can be with a local community that knows how to handle itself if things get tough. Looks like your in a similar “good spot”. Don’t know if I’ll be learning how to make gunpowder from chicken shit though!
“in wheelchairs talking about collapse in 20 years”
One might ask the question ‘Do you think money printing can keep the economy going for another 20 years?’
But I won’t — because we are printing like crazy and the economy is stalling out….
So the question is — ‘does anyone think the economy will not collapse if it fails to grow?’
Grow or Die.
Fast Eddy, what I can discern about the availability of capital, the state-backed investment/ loan institutions have got new instructions to approve all business plans if they can turn any sort of profit. Specially global franchise-chain start-ups get any capital they ask for. The loan approval rates are something like 60% of all applications get approved and like 90% of all franchise start-ups get any sum of capital they want .
20 years, no way. But yet a few months more, with this all this capital start-ups could ever want scheme..
> So, what to do, what to do?
Save. Don’t watch TV. And prepare your boat for cruising!
2forte, I live as if nothing will happen for the most part. I do make a few preps but I try not to dwell on collapse.
2 fortea – I’ve got my piles of compost out back …. and am off to eastern Europe for 5 weeks in December…
I may not have gone to Europe if the end of the world were not imminent… so this can work both ways….
Then there are those who are going about their everyday lives — like cattle in the field eating the same meals of grass day after day — then suddenly a steel bolt gets fired through their heads…
hopefully you’ll share some of your views of Europe’s prospects. Friends who have travelled there recently see no signs of any refugee concerns while I get the impression from the news they are being overrun.
I suspect I won’t even be aware of the immigration issue…. the MSM would have us believe the hordes are pouring over the walls…. really – the numbers are not very significant…
I was in Cairo during the protests — unless you went down to the spots where there were protests and violence happening — you would have thought the city was at peace…
I highly recommend strife travel — the hotel rates are collapsed (I had a $500 buck suite for $120 next to Tahrir Square….) — museums and other sites are empty….
Someone needs to start a website http://www.strifetravel.com
Yeah, like waiting for something that never comes. Reminds me of the movie Dark City in which Murdoch is trying to find Shell Beach. At one point he’s in a subway depot and one goes by that has written on the front, “Shell Beach”. He asks someone working the platform why it didn’t stop and the answer is, “That’s the express.”
2fortea, I’ve been linked into the peak oil stuff since about 2005 on The Oil Drum, which as we all know is now defunct. Many websites popped up in its absence, like Gail’s and Ron’s. The conjecture still goes on as to what year will be the year of collapse, yet year after year pass without such an event as we face the close out of 2015. Sure, it must happen sometime, right? I use to think in terms of a sudden hard collapse, but I’m now in the slow grinding descent camp. I’m not doing much to set up for post collapse. I just figure the rules will continually change while the whole shebang truncates into lower states of itself. No three week starvation occurrence, but rather a steady diet of higher fees, charges, renewals, local taxes, utilities, healthcare against a backdrop of stagnating wages. Same price for all groceries, but smaller packages. A gradual chipping away at our standards of living while high ticket items get pricier. At some point many people will be in 2nd hand cloths while the super rich are competing for longest personal yacht.
I think our minds seek black and white answers. We want light switch analogies because it’s so much easier to see things as on or off, but the subtle yet terrifying nuances of a slow grinding descent do not easily play out in our minds. It’s more complex, harder to see. So we conclude collapse must occur some Monday morning and then the whole thing goes south in short order. That we can understand and make arrangements to meet head on. The idea of no TV, used clothing, a bicycle instead of a truck, some food but not enough, cold in the winter and hot in the summer, weeks without a shower are things we don’t want to think about because we want to be pampered or shot, because both have an easy way to view them. The slow grind will be very hard. Nothing worse than slowly getting whittled down to size.
Stilgar, we are in agreement the slow grind. Increasing fees, taxes, medical, co-pays, medicine, … The invisible hand of the market place will control the rationing.
As a New Englander I have a bit of positive feel for frugality. I have yet to see anyone car pooling. I did not buy a pastry at the store the other day because the price was ridiculous. On the other hand I have not made one at home yet. I bought a shirt the other day $60. I did at least think “time to make my own clothes”. Have I done so, no.
We’ve been in a slow grind for 40+ years. The only reason it doesn’t appear obvious is because it’s been papered over with debt. In 1970, a 30-something high school graduate could support a family, have his wife stay at home, buy a house and perhaps have some small savings.
Today, it’s practically 180 degrees: Starbucks won’t accept applications to anyone without a college degree. Two incomes, college debt, no savings, etc. It’s such a different world, yet not many have any knowledge of the past and/or are consumed with iToys.
But there’s no reason to get upset or disappointed. In reality, the sheep never had a chance – the forces they were contending with are just too powerful. So, the wise person understands that the game is to simply stay the course. That is, the slow grind. To make it more effective, wholesale population substitution makes it that much easier to control the people.
So, don’t pine for the “good old days”; rather, get a clue, figure out what’s going on, and get in there and play the sheep for all they’re worth.
In addition a pension and retirement medical for himself and his wife.
Yep, we often tried to hammer this into people’s head here that most of the per capita statistics stuff peaked already in 1970s and quite likely in socio-cultural sphere it’s pretty downhill as well.. So those past 40yrs in aggregate were likely bumpy plateau with first signs of sudden brake downs into way lower temporary balance.
Youth back in time was reknown for roaring mutli liter engines and loud sound stages, fast forward today’s youth is watching life on few watt smartphone video and speakerphones. The next leg down would likely involve even something more substantial like less food (and its variety) and also fewer real not nominal freedoms available to them. So there you have it that’s collapse in 2-3generations counting since 1960-70s.
“more substantial” like less car ownership and less home ownership and less family formation. We are already there.
Next step down 90% live in micro apartments 250 sqft, walk to work, walk to food, no marriage, few children (1.0 per woman or less in the “educated classes”).
Just some perspective if you subscribe to the slow grinding collapse scenario.
The year 1800 saw the world population at 1B. It took humans seventy odd thousand years to attain that level. In 1900 we reached 1.7B and we began to use oil in earnest. By 1927 we were 2B. 1960 3B, 1974 4B, 1987 5B. We are now approximately 7.4 billion and adding 72 million annually.
7.4 billion are supported by oil. Oil enabled massive deforestation everywhere. It enabled rampant fisheries destruction. Rivers are dammed and polluted, wetlands destroyed, coral reefs dynamited to get the remaining fish. Enormous spaces are covered in cities, suburbs and towns to house us. The skies are crisscrossed with contrails and the atmosphere contaminated with aerosols and greenhouse gasses.
We have been slow grinding for a while now. Collapsing in everything but the name. The ship hit an iceberg a good while ago.
Now after considering how we got here over the last 100 years. How does one envisage a “slow grinding” fall? I think the ubiquitous Titanic analogy is perfect.
Try not to think of this from your personal perspective. There is a big picture, much bigger than all of us. One that involves a myriad of support systems to keep the ship afloat and we are all trapped on the ship. The ship could even be the Earth.
Good thing no one with national technical means has figured this out or they might reduce the population from 7B to 0.5B
Just pay attention to the possibility that they may cook that number too. Why admit that the human population is no longer growing? It’s not like you can check. Just like you can’t check oil production. Just sayn.
“Wouldnt it be rather dismal if one lived ones whole life as if collapse was going to happen for sure next week but it never came?”
Depends. Would you prefer living in ignorance of such trends and then one day, like an unsuspecting cow, you get a bolt fired into the temple? Actually, that would be the best outcome for the ignoratti and denialists. No preparations will make you a beggar immediately, with few to no prospects. Imagine the panic and fear build when you finally realize you’ve been misled and lied to, and your world is suddenly upside down. Better to be the ones turning them away at the gates, in sadness for their plight.
Yes that is true — assuming that anyone who survives does not feel they would have been better off dead….
I’m reading some of the comments, and I must remind people that we don’t really face an energy problem. At least, not immediately. Eventually yes, but not right now. We are swimming in more fossil fuel energy than the entire history of industrial civilization. We have so much of it, that we build ugly towers in the sky that nobody wants to live or work in. We transport middle class sheeple in huge airplanes, above the clouds all over the world. We drive automobiles aimlessly in every direction. We keep the lights on all the time, all through the night. We keep the elderly going on machines in hospitals. We fill up our rooms with huge screens that give us vapid entertainments.
We are voracious users of energy, and everything else. Conservation? Ha!
What we face really is a growth/financial/political/social problem. A problem that has plagued people since the dawn of time – how do you organize society? All attempts have failed except for feudalism and its variants. Feudalism has proved to be durable and sustainable. So that’s what we are going back to, no matter what forms of energy we do or do not have. That is the vision that we must always keep in mind.
No amount of energy, fossil fuel or otherwise, can sustain what global financial industrial capitalism has morphed into. And therefore, it will fail, and all attempts to maintain it, whatever trickery is resorted to, will also fail.
Solar panels and nuclear power plants and goo from algae are interesting, but that’s all they are…interesting. They won’t solve the problem, nor are they meant to.
We do all the funny and idiotic modes of employment, because growth is needed tu run the system.
The next turn of the dissipative growth-spiral needs to become more funny and idiotic, but this is not possible because we will run out of growing quantities of cheap fuel.
https://i.imgur.com/R7TEmeW.jpg
Saludos
el mar
That’s an awesome image. And to think it’s a mural. The more I have tried to accept modern life, the greater my distaste for it. Even if we are not headed for the edge of the cliff, I would vote for radical changes in the way we live. The problem is, most people seem to be content with things the way they are. Working for the man just to get by or to upgrade their trinkets every six months. Maybe when the social safety nets go…
Subscribing to the general idea as you probably already noticed.
I’d only add to the issue of durability-sustainability under feudalism, that one of the key features or THE defining feature in this debate is the “managable” down to human scale aspect both in time and space, simply put it’s the most conforming to be operated on our human scale and nature giving our past millennia of domestication, it’s just fitting best.
To name just a few specifics, one of those clearly idiotic aspects (perhaps on purpose) of “modern democracies” is the short termistic election/office holding cycle, in 4yrs nothing can be done properly, it’s only breading infested environment for undue influence-special interest/corruption/waste. In contrast administration tenure within the feudal sturcture based on previous merit achievements for the minimum of 8-12yrs with direct link to performance is way to go. Another of the key aspects is the mutual dependance inside feudal structures where the multi generational local-regional patron is not some flyby night global grasshoper wealth sucking parasite.
Obviously we have entered transition period where proto-feudal features will be introduced slowly and in times of ubrupt crises phased-in likely more rapidly, basically in our lives we can expect some sort of mixed system and towards say 2045-2100 during the post ELM effect period more crystalized forms of feudalism emerging.
At first you say we are swimming in fossil fuels and that energy is not the problem. And then you admit that no amount of energy can sustain growth. So which is it?
As has been repeated ad nauseam on this blog, it’s not the amount of energy that’s the problem, but the cost of extracting it. Having run out of cheap energy sources we’ve hit a brick wall and find ourselves in a predicament.
The only reason our economy and population exploded over the last 100-200 years is because of cheap oil and coal. And yes, that was probably financed with debt. It’s a virtuous cycle until it becomes a vicious one.
Now energy is not cheap and debt has gone through the roof. I think that even if we found a suitable cheap energy replacement at this stage, it wouldn’t solve the debt problem. Contraction would still happen as consumption would continue to diminish. A consumer revolution in the east would still not prop up the west but you never know. Will much of India and China ever be wealthy enough to buy the houses, cars, and electrical goods that have propped up the global economy thus far? They would need adequate, sustained, well paid employment to achieve this. Hmm…
“As has been repeated ad nauseam on this blog, it’s not the amount of energy that’s the problem, but the cost of extracting it. Having run out of cheap energy sources we’ve hit a brick wall and find ourselves in a predicament.”
Yes, not quantity in and of itself, but cost to get quantity that consumers can afford. That feedback dynamic will play itself out until we descend from a peak, which doesn’t seem far off.
Time for a reminder about the net energy cliff. Hall and others think our current civilization cannot be maintained below c. EROEI of 8. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/9b/Net_energy_cliff.gif
As always, no we don’t face an ENERGY problem at all. What we face is a HUMAN problem.
Yes, we need fewer people and we need it now.
At the end of 2014, only 1.42% of speculative corporate debt had gone into default for the year – near a record low. The only better year for speculative corporate debt in recent history was the top of the mortgage-debt boom in 2006. As you know, two years later, disaster struck. A new low for defaults in 2014 points to 2016 as the year when corporate debt will begin a new default cycle.
Martin Fridson, the world’s foremost expert on the high-yield bond market, says his “base-case scenario” is for between $1.6 trillion and $2 trillion in defaults in high-yield bonds over the next three to four years. We believe default rates will be a lot worse, simply because the market has grown so much, thanks to things like CDS credit protection and the securitization of subprime consumer lending.
Now, before you panic… here’s an idea you’ll see us repeat again and again over the next three to four years.
What’s happening – rising default rates, rising interest rates on corporate debt, and falling stock prices – doesn’t need to be a crisis for you, personally.
Instead, this period could be the best opportunity that you will ever get to buy great assets and great businesses at great prices.
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/11/10/were-in-the-early-stages-of-largest-debt-default-in-us-history/
Porter thinks there’s light at the end of the tunnel ….. unfortunately for him …. the light is that on the front of a bullet train traveling at 300km/hour…..
Record crop yields in Minnesota! Stay calm
http://www.winonadailynews.com/news/state-and-regional/mn/minnesota-farmers-poised-for-record-corn-soybean-crops/article_fa1feb90-f804-5c0c-b049-722363dc6436.html
A nice 10 degree warm up would be paradise here in New York State.
The Most Important Earnings Report You Should Know About
OK: Better than CAT as a barometer of macroeconomic/industrial trends
All industrial equipment uses semiconductors, and ROK (Rockwell Automation) is the premier industrial automation focused semiconductor company.
Factories and mines are hostile environments: lots of dust, heat, chemicals, liquids and vibrations. Less than ideal conditions for delicate components like semiconductors. But increased automation means more semiconductors, and ROK specializes in making hardy components.
ROK as best barometer
Breadth of industrial customer base: hard to find a company that touches more capital intensive projects.
Upstream in the demand chain: ROK demand comes in before CAT demand. In fact, that CAT extractor needed ROK chips
Correlation to US Industrial Production
ROK revenues strongly correlate to the US Industrial Production. That’s because much of the business is cyclical.
The advantage comes with ROK’s forward guidance: it’s 1:1 with developments in the manufacturing space and with regional growth.
The latest data says: US is deteriorating rapidly and so is China.
Latest Earnings: Bad News
Nothing pretty on today’s earnings call
3QCY Revenue dropped (-10%)
FY2016 Sales guidance lowered to -4% y/y
“As we progressed through the quarter, conditions softened. And September was especially weak, particularly in the U.S. product businesses….September typically is the strongest month of the year.” – Keith Norbusch, ROK CEO
More http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-10/most-important-earnings-report-you-should-know-about
for FE
Great video. The common language and experience these days? Consumer goods and mass media delivered “cultural events.” I’m not quite ready yet to say that that’s an organized conspiracy to do something “to us,” but more likely a collective wrong turn down a dead end delusional alley. But it is funny that even today’s third worlders, when exposed to our first world lifestyle, almost invariably want to emulate it. Not sure what to make of that. A viral malignancy of human thinking?
Test.
OK, previous comment lost for now. Maybe it will materialize again.
I suspect Morris would be with me regarding the Protocols of the Elders of Zion …. he is a wise man….
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Hm, there seems to be new development in the Portugal case, black swan potential, lozl?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/portugal/11986416/Portugal-on-collision-course-with-EU-as-centre-Right-government-falls-after-11-days.html
I think the problem with Portugal or Greece is that whatever deals or debt forgiveness Portugal (GDP 230B) or Greece (GDP 240B) get, Italy (GDP 2140B) and Spain (GDP 1404B) will also expect. And Deutsche Bank, therefore Angela Merkel, can not afford forgiving debts to Italy and Spain..
The Black Swan kind of depends how long the peoples of Portugal or Greece will or will not tolarate being treated like scum of the earth, I guess..
Or how long it takes them to find new friends in Russia and China.
The fun part is the increasing volatility of the system, not fun to govern it all.
The Germans now have to juggle dozens of hand granades:
– increasing negativity of natural german population toward migrant wave/invasion threatens the political order of past decades regionally and on federal level as political actors fear their seats, traditional power structure with various industrial interests is not happy about this
– the migrant circus triggered and empowered some underground processes, namely smaller EU central european states start coordinating more stuborn position against big players like Germany-France and their moralizing lackies like Holland/Sweden are not taken seriously anymore
– as per the article’s links inside “Latin revolt” incl. debts/austerity combo of Portugal, Spain and Greece would be too much to contain, so far Germany had to keep under the rag only Greece as the other PIIGS government gladly kicked the jack boot in the face of their own citizens as the ECB temporarily sterilized their ~400% gdp debt situation
– Germany is under attack on int scene (VW, “friendly espionage”, separate energy deals with Russia under revision EU/US)
– the Franco-German junior partner, yep France is currently governed by the worst bunch of incompetent nobodies ever, not good enough sidekick option for rough times. French are rooting for cheap Euro as well as Germany in this global devaluation festivities, but EUR is loosing appeal as number two %global reserves behind the USD, so the situation could be USD stays put, Yuan is gradualy more accepted for oil deals, hence EUR continues to loose appeal in the trade and reserve basket and stagflation punches Europe into face
– the Brits as always first smell the fresh blood so now launched the bargaining campaign to secure more optouts of the EU structure incl. some very core pillars like ending movement of people, ever closer (federalist) union etc. OR leaving the block for good by 2017 plebiscit
=> very nice overall setup for some black swan landing to shake it all down in relative fast order and it will be likely blamed on the Germans again, uber-lolz !
All European nations should welcome 3rd world migration up to a point with open arms. With ZPG and aging workers, an infusion of young, healthy workers will help lift Europe out of the population stagnation seen by Japan. For example, while the rest of the industrialized world continues to lose working age adults, the US will continue to benefit from a steady flow of hispanic populations to help eliminate the demographically catastrophic baby boom generation. IF they do it correctly, European societies will be invigorated (if not unchanged) by middle eastern migrants, but at some point borders will have to be closed in order to protect continuity of culture.
Some countries have immigration right — if you meet certain minimum requirements and have a skill that is in need – you get in.
If you have a boatload of cash to invest – you get in.
Canada and New Zealand are two places like this.
Europe is being flooded with people with no money and who are unlikely to find employment — in case people have not noticed – most EU countries have massive unemployment problems already…
The last thing they need is more people.
@FE
I heard that Canada ended the Immigrant Entrepreneur program in 2014.
Like you said, “the last thing they need is more people.”
No idea on that … but they still have a Skilled Migrant option — I was speaking to a guy who used to head up the emigration section at the Canadian consulate in HK recently — if I recall correctly there were only a grand total of 6 professions that were on the shortage list of recent….
I’m portuguese and don’t belive the new government (a coalition made of two different stripes of social-democrats and communists) will last long. I don’t give more than a year to a new election, because there’s too many ideological differences between the three partners.
I any case, they are, all of them, a bunch of delusionals or professional liars, who call this situation a mere “crisis” and attribute it to the greed of bankers and to financial deregulation. About energy and ecology they seem to be completely clueless, In their minds, they are still fighting the politcal struggles of the age of abundance, as if we were still in 1945. I don’t even listen them anymore, not even for a good laugh.
Anyway, they aren’t just clueless or liars, they are worse than that, they are powerless, in so far as the real decisions are made in the dungeons of ECB.
If any government tries to ‘F with the Jesus’ (e.g. break from the European Union) — the Elders will stick a gun up that person’s ass — and pull the trigger until it goes click…
Yes, and every leftist party have learned that lesson with the Syriza gov in Greece.
After being caught in the trap of debt, country sovereignity is over. No money, no party. Who pays the bills run the show. Indeed, even the electoral sheeps are learning that lesson, as we see by the deflating of the syriza-like Podemos at the polls in Spain.
Everything that goes up must come down. It’s all hot air, and now Podemos is being replaced by a more palatable combo with Ciudadanos which I think is just the old parties with a new paint job to capture younger voters. But as we know, none of that matters. Out with the old boss, in with the new. Nothing ever changes. The true masters pulling the strings are way ahead of the crowd.
By the way, how’s that 70% renewable energy going for you guys?
Well, you see, electricity represents only 15%-20% of the energy we consume, all the rest is fossil fuels…
But, yes, as long as we can keep the win turbines going, and the dams operational, we’ll not be completely in the dark. The problem is, I don’t know for how long we can keep them going in a post-BAU situation.
Saludos/cumprimentos
‘The rider changes, (or appears to) but the saddle stays on the mule.’ 🙂
JMS, the only power left to the debtor is the power of warfare. They need to pick up a gun if they want to take from Germany and France. I of course do not advocate violence of any kind as it would be illegal and only the rich are allowed to commit illegal acts.
JMS, it is exactly the same in the US. The politicians are fighting the fights from the age of abundance. Trump says “make America great again”, Sanders says raise the minimum wage and universal health care. The rest of the republicans are reliving the cold war saying “I am a bigger war hawk than the others”. Only Hillary is on a new agenda the homosexual everything agenda, the one supreme value of America is homosexuality. See Alexander Dugin.
I would think if any politician believed we could build our way out of this they would run a happy days massive building and jobs are here again campaign. This does seem to be the way the BRICS are going but none in the west. Why no candidate of building inn the west? Yes they all talk about more and more infrastructure, meaning highways to burn oil, but none talk about massive building of nuclear or solar (pv or wind).
I guess it’s a bit more nuanced, Trump speaks about reversing the capital leaving US for manufacturing in Asia etc., he thinks it’s reversable if corp taxes go to 10% . He is openly saying about the need for cutting the mil-industrial complex expenditures, he openly talks about the falling apart public infrustructure in the US. Simply, he had broken quite a few taboos in the open altready. We know most likely he can’t deliver any of it at this point but for my safety it’s better to have at least such candidate voicing openly this stuff than the usual shades of war mongers always ready around just few steps from launching the nukes. The other candidate Rand Paul said true conservatives don’t go broke on overdebtness and mil expenditures. Overall this was prohibited talk for decades in the US mainstream!, however most of the public still doesn’t get it. In a way these two guys plus Sanders put at least a bit of cold water splash on most of those other creepy candidates.
Nothing more than actors reading from scripts in ‘Days of our Lives’
The men who own the company that owns the printing press make the decisions that matter.
Ed,
Yea, all politicians had graduated in the School of Deceive, as we perfectly know. But we can’t forget that the democratic process demand they lie. Otherwise, how could they be elected? Unfortunately, the electors don’t want the truth. Or, as T.S.Eliot has nicely put it: “Humankind cannot bear very much reality.”
US Import Prices Tumble, Ex-Fuel Drop Biggest Since 2009 As World Races To Export Its Deflation
The global export of deflation continues as import prices to the US dropped 0.5% MoM in October (notably more than expected) and recent history was revised markedly lower with the 7th miss in 2015. Year-over-year, prices also fell more than expected – down 10.5% vs -9.4% exp. – the biggest miss since April and hovering near the weakest in the cycle. This is the 15th month in a row of year-over-year declines in import prices. But most critically, Ex-petroleum, this is the biggest drop in import prices since 2009.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-10/us-import-prices-tumble-again-biggest-miss-6-months
Are we being psychologically primed for a collapse future? If so, why?
How much has your thinking been influenced by all kinds of media of late?
I know that in my own case a sizeable portion of entertainment media consumed over the last ten years has undoubdetly – and not so subtley – prepared my mind for the possibility of a systemic collapse scenario. That alone begs further inspection to see if the pattern of deliberate propagation of a meme exists. Predictive programming is well understood in military intelligence and its propaganda arm – the MSM. Their are two reasons for this…
1. is to condition the public at a sub-concious level so that when structural change is enacted they react according to preplanned expaectations and within selected parameters.
2. refers to a rather more obscure “religious” need of the cabal to openly communicate to their victims what they are going to have to endure.
You may balk at the second reason but it’s common knowledge amongst those that study the religious aspect of the various orders that make up the secret societies. The Protocols are an excellent example of this as is the way that their source has been deliberately obfuscated to cause confusion. Of course, it matters not which group the message is attributed to – onlly that the message was put out into the ether. The authors of the Protocols knew very well what they were doing.
By far, one of the most glaringly blatant examples of this type of “programming” takes place in video games. And although movies and tv series still dominate, the consistent narrative predicting collapse scenarios forms the basis of storytelling far more frequently in interactive games.
It’s no secret that game developers contract military advisors for certain types of narratives, but it’s a little less known that psychologists and think-tank academics are directly influencing the kinds of scenarios that players will find themselves navigating as part of their “entertainment”.
Why then, over the last ten years or so of game development do we see an astonishingly high level of reference to post-apocalyptic survival scenarios almost always accompanied by an already established or declining state of martial law including check points, abuse, torture etc.
The level of detail depicted in these game experiences is also astounding. Obviously, the developers visit abandoned cities, crumbling industrial zones, even the area surrounding Chernobil for their inspiration and the realism achieved is both spooky and disturbing. Often, we see other species having suffered some mutation but more recently, wildlife is depicted as reclaiming the world that is left behind… a sentiment that grows stronger by the day – the idea that the world is better off without humanity.
Other common themes that the surviving humans generally experience are the need to scavenge, fight disease, traverse a hostile environment, fend off rival factions, and endure extreme climactic conditions, always under an impending cloud of doom – that despite all the effort, there is no hope of survival.
The Last of Us is exemplary at conveying the emotions felt in such a situation. I recommend watching the movie version of cut scenes on youtube just to get a feel for what it’s like. How it begins. How life transitions from “normal” to “never will be the same again”. And how and why certain people survive and sometimes wish they hadn’t…
What’s interesting in this particular narrative is that eventually a group sets up the basis for a new beginning at an old hydro-electric power station which they manage to get working again! How’s that for an improbable hopium twist finale!
Although most of these stories rely on various common trigger events to set the ball rolling, again, by far the most frequently reoccuring trigger that allows the plot to unfold is a plague of some sort – either natural or engineered. Nuclear war is still popular as ever, as is alien invasion, but an incurable bioweapon release combined with police state clamp down and rapid decline into chaos has continually created a highly plausible and nightmarish setting that has lead to some of the most emotionally devastating storylines to date.
It is because these stories are continuously tweaked and nudged in this direction by experts in social engineering that we should consider why this may be happening at a time when economic signals suggesting possible systemic collapse are off the charts.
Why, over the same period, have we witnessed multiple pandemic alerts, sometimes tied to bioweapons lab “accidents” involving transpotation of viruses etc? Why would military scientists develop race-specific bioweapons and other exotic concoctions in the first place? (A highly dubious concept – even for psycopaths – considering the amount of racial mixing we have in our species anyway.)
Is it all coincidence? Or do these militarily inspired and directly guided by military intelligence events constitute a plan for rapid population reduction in an attempt to establish some kind of order out of the ensuing chaos? Or are we simply witnessing how a sentient species openly expresses its deep rooted fears in order to overcome them? I fear the second option may be wishful thinking at best.
Some other depictions of systemic collapse in popular media include Children of Men, The Walking Dead, and The Road. Some of these include depictions of cannibalism along with the obvious symbolic representation of this through the use of zombies. We are also being acclimated to extreme acts of violence through these forms of entertainment, the obligatory torture scenes, and a deep sense of hopelessness. There are positive messages too, but these are usually few and far between in comparison.
More than anything, these symbols represent limits that humans generally don’t want to reach. You know you’ve hit rock bottom as a species when you have to chew on your neighbour’s leg to survive.
Isn’t it ironic then that if you type in “the” at the search engines, the number four suggestion (at least it is for me) is “the walking dead” after “the guardian” and other newspapers! What does that tell you about what is on people’s minds?
The only part of the not-human world that can survive is the part that is actively and effectively protected by humans. This is the idea I am waiting to see take hold. Only areas under rational control will be more than cesspools of waste products and human bodies.
Time for some group to take control of the future.
I’d like to know about your idea as I’m not sure I’ve guessed the full implications of it. Are you suggesting that a combination of human intelligence and military might makes right can turn things around for a substantial number of humans? At least, in some limited fashion. Possibly a military coup in a dominant state?
I could see Japan being a possible planned state. It would require the leadership taking to heart a different set of values. There is a surprisingly strong “green” streak in Russia maybe there. Yes, I see it as a totalitarian government in the areas of borders and breeding. It would help if the indigenous people saw themselves as a unique group worthy of securing a future for their children and culture.
I would have picked the UK before the massive immigration ended any sense of culture or people.
Australia and New Zealand have the isolation of being islands going for them. Not sure they have a culture or people they feel worth preserving.
No, I do not see the US doing it. A far better chance if it were the elite of China, Russia, and US but I do not see that huge gang of rich folks having a sea chance in their way of thinking.
It is absolutely true that we are being primed for collapse. Nevertheless, such movies and entertainments still have to be told within the acceptable limits of social discourse as in, the hero’s quest, hope, saving women, saving children. etc. This will be useful when new recruits are needed as cannon fodder for the military/paramilitary forces.
Meanwhile, the propaganda from the media and news (everything is better than ever) continues relentlessly.
Those of us who see this clearly, what we have is immunity to all of this…immunity to the propaganda.
So it’s just another form of propaganda. Just the other side of the coin. One side is full of promise and the other presents a dark future where heros will be called upon to save the day. Interesting.
I can also see how this causes confusion and cognitive disonance. Some people become paralysed with the conflciting messages. Or at least that’s what’s happening at a subconcious level. Later these implanted responses can be activated or manipulated to achieve desired results.
If any of this is true though, we truly belong to a sick and twisted society. One that flashes images of its own demise into the group conciousness as it is actually happening.
Ah, the old “does life imitate art, or does art imitate life?” conundrum. The most popular movie themes in the 30s were gangster flicks; 40s were directed war support; 50s were Westerns (hero representing USA standing up to bullies); 60s adventure spy movies.
I fall in the “art imitates life” category. The entertainment business is a tough but – it follows the traditional 90/10 rule ie 10% make enough money to cover the losses on the other 90%. They are desperate for a winning angle to achieve any kind of advantage. The fact that doom is popular today shows how far reaching the dawning awareness of limits has become.
I think it’s a bit of both. There is demonstrated input from intelligence agencies manipulating the narrative in much of our “entertainment” as well as mainstream news. But I guess it’s a feedback loop and it all just swills around feeding off of itself.
You’re absolutely right about the movies. Don’t forget to add a healthy dose of positive sci-fi depicting fantastic futures and technology. Although these are usually set in fairly distopian settings too.
I agree with the 90/10 rule but that would mean that we were facing imminent doom in the seventies. We had a glut of disaster movies and James Bond villains destroying the world! People couldn’t get enough.
Today we have zombies. And I think zombies are just a representation of the masses – people who are lost and ignorant of the way things really work. By showing the heroes gunning down these “masses” implants a message that they are worthless and expendable. Useless eaters, if you will.
I realised a while ago that at technocratic conferences when talkers mentioned humans they were referencing themselves and their buddies, not everyone else. This suggests that they truly believe they will inherit the earth along with a golden age of technology. We’ll see how that works out.
Javier, I have always enjoyed your posts and hoped you would post more. I am happy you are posting more. But I worry that you might be moving to despair. Fast or slow we have some advantage of knowing what it is. When the electric goes out for good and your neighbor is wasting his time protesting, you and I will not be demanding the impossible we will be getting on with the new world.
You say refurbishing chairs is claiming, might be time to pick up a few at the thrift shop.
xaiver, I think I confused Javier with yourself ooppss.
Ed
I’m having an identity crisis now……!
I highly recommend any kind of restoration as good for the soul: whatever way one looks at it, it’s a positive thing. One more item saved from the tip, and returned to usefulness. The best investment: a little money, and a lot of time and patience bear great fruit.
“I think zombies are just a representation of the masses – people who are lost and ignorant of the way things really work”
Absolutely. The association betwen zombies and the poor was even explicitly made in one of George Romeros’ movies, “Land of the Dead”, in wich he portrays – LOL – a zombie revolution.
We even have Zombie Banks!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zombie_bank
A zombie bank is a financial institution that has an economic net worth less than zero but continues to operate because its ability to repay its debts is shored up by implicit or explicit government credit support.
Spooky!
In the “The Martian” I wondered if he tryly had enough light n water available, why he didn´t use bags of some sorts to grow the potatoes in, that would have been a more efficient way to use the available soil, water and square meters.
I think there simply are not that many good scripts out there, or scriptwriters who could “If the four horsemen come knocking, offer beer” offer insights in to what a collapse scenario is about.
But that said “The Martian” had a different kind of message, something like: “Relax, everything is out of control. Pain belongs to life. The feeling of hunger is a good thing. Solve one problem at a time, and then the next, and the next, and you may have a home again, someday.”
If time permits, maybe we will have a blockbuster movie, or a game, with a good script. Something that offers insights in how many ways there are to start building something from nothing in an urban vs. rural environment. Our species is supposed to be adaptive and inventive, not seen that many scripts that reflect that.
So, just saying, if there is some hidden agenda behind what scriptwriters the entertainment industry chooses and uses, they are doing a below median job of it.
Keep in mind … Hollywood is producing content that is on the level of its audience i.e. slightly above idiocracy
So don’t expect much.
When and if does fossil fuel extraction of coal become unaffordable due to rising costs of production – high dependency machines using diesel fuel for extraction and transport? Many producers are making a loss now. Banks let them continue. In Australia, the Adani coal-mine project, biggest ever coal mine in Australia, was re-approved after first disapproval from failure to consider some local threatened species. Now there is another strong court challenge by Australian Conservation Foundation (a reputable and serious bunch) on failure to properly consider effects of cumulative carbon emissions on Great Barrier Reef. The biggest difficulty the mining project has faced seems to be getting finance. The economics are tricky, but the Indian coal mining billionaire Adani seems to think he can make more money than anyone else this way. What do rising energy costs of production and falling global commodity prices say? How soon is the abandonment time? With bank negative interest and funny money, how soon before we stop eating and drinking? Unfortunately the government still thinks we can still operate at the fossil fuel level of civilization for many years to come (quoting Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull) and discounts the natural water ecosystems which we permanently destroy in order get to the coal to export.
Arch Coal in the US seems to be on the verge of filing for bankruptcy:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/09/arch-coal-bankruptcy-idUSL8N1315FF20151109
The other thing to remember with the proposed Adani development is that it relies on government infrastructure investment in rail,port facilities and dredging.
At current thermal coal prices this is not a viable project not to mention the fact that Adani have a poor environmental compliance record in India.At todays current prices the Galilee Basin coal is a classic stranded asset.
“How soon is the abandonment time? With bank negative interest and funny money, how soon before we stop eating and drinking?”
Indeed. I have thought about this many times over the years. But never as intensely as now. In a way, this blog is a measure of convergence to a point – lets call it the omega point – of all the factors that suggest a contraction of the civilization bubble that has been inflated for the past 200 years or so.
Even so, there’s a clear divide between fast collapsers and slow or step down grinders with a few sustainers in between. Who’s right? I think we’d need a little more data to answer that question as it comes in and not just the usual cherrypicking that reflects a distinct bias one way or another. Truly objective data and therefore a truly objective preview of what is to come, and when, is hard to come by, but the general perception does seem to point to a quickening of events that even the sleepiest of players should begin to notice. But do they?
Of course they don’t. And I think that’s part of the reason why TPTB have been able to extend their trickery for so long and hopefully a while longer. Since we’re all players in a confidence game, and relative confidence has been maintained in the system, the system persists. As soon as the confidence goes… poof! the illusion disapears.
I currently hold two conflicting views for possible outcomes.
1. When we reach that tipping point… the world goes to shit in a month or two. Chaos ensues. Four horsemen arrive on the scene. You know the rest. Yes, there may be some survivors (southern hemisphere looks good) but our whole existence has become one that is based on hopes and dreams. When they go, humanity fades.
2. The planetary cabal have a particularly shiny card up their sleeve. One so powerful that it magically reinvents the economy, solves the world’s energy problems and global warming, and drastically reduces global population while maintaining next-level technological advantage – all in one fell swoop.
No.2 may be the plot of a science-fiction novel. But at this point, I’m open to any suggestions.
Javier, your No.2 would require something in a scale of a zero point energy batteries, cheap, never ending, reliable power, manufactured in Elon Musks superfactories, starting tomorrow..
So, what is the schedule for No.1? Key data for that reflection would be something like:
– Is there a Seneca Cliff for investments? Corporate profits go down, sure, but how long and how hard can profits diminish before investors, savers and sovereign wealth funds stop investing? And where do they move that money in that case? As profits go down we will be seeing massive layoffs, sure. But there is always the possibility of start ups if capital is available.
– Derivatives are what Warren Buffet called “Financial weapons of mass destruction”. But exactly what is the scenario when interest rate SWAPs start crashing the big banks? (+700 trillion in derivatives according to BIS, of which half are interest rate SWAPs, in comparison world GDP is about 80 trillion).
– Just how many years of negative interest rates does it take, and just how many hundred percent of debt to GDP does it take for the average Joe to loose confidence in the economy?
– How many days, weeks, months, years does it take to organize co-ops work parties, alternative currencies, international trade (by any means) when a national economy collapses?
Since this will be a one time experience, it is all a matter of opinion, no data available.
At the minimum I think it would not be that hard to determine existence of some crucial crossroads and/or trigger points, which can point to scenarios at hand, perhaps even help with timing etc.
For instance is there visible any real down to the earth application of the change/reform/reset of the current dominant global economic-financial order? We know something important is brewing since ~2008/2010 as the systemic large part of the developed world is no longer recirculating US gov issued debt as in prior time. But, where is any of the day to day visibility of it, when commodities including energy suffer and USD jumps up, some say it’s just the temporary “flight to quality” horor reaction.
Another traditional trigger example, are there any preasures visible in terms of core global trade routes and infrustructure choke points? Some say the Syrian war is about future natgas pipelined from Gulfies to Turkish border and bound into existing networks for European consumers. But do we know it with 100%, I don’t know for sure I’d put it at 75% probability. In the same vein, some mainstream press reported strange activities near the bottom of Baltic sea natgas pipelines, aka killer robot-submarines and is it true at all (at the moment no way to verify)?
Yet another example, the stability of core institutions. Well, it seems we are trending from few decades of window of unilateraly enforced will back to some block arrangement where actors seem to gain power while others are loosing ground: -US/EU vs. +China/Russia. But still going back to point one, in the visible sphere on the ground it still feels like the old days momentum keeps prevailing so far. For what it worth when e.g. high level UN administration for human rights is staffed with Saudi and/or EU Commission chief (sort of EU PM) is often shown visibly drunked like sailor when chairing summits, well this speaks for itself.
So, the situation is opaque, but the sense of something brewing seems real, from the vantage point of little people it’s unclear if the brewing phase slowly continues to develope or fast snap change is around the corner in terms of just few years. I guess we can at least proclaim the transition period is here already.
“…it is all a matter of opinion, no data available”.
That just about sums it up. So who is in a better position right now? The blissfully ignorant “everything is awesome” crowd or a tiny minority of doomers? The global contingent of scientists and engineers that are conscientiously working on “solutions” or a handful of blogs that predict systemic collapse of biblical proportions? Who do you believe and who has the better data?
As far as I know, the information provided here is the best big-picture analysis available. And if I have to align myself with any particular stream of thought in the comments, as much as it pains me to say it, I think Fast Eddy has the most accurate handle on this. The pain is caused by a deeply instinctive denial that catastrophe lies around the next corner. It’s all well and good when Oxford University professor Nick Bostrom pontificates about far off existential risks ascribing probability values accordingly. By the way, artificial intelligence is still up there on the list as the most likely cause of our demise. What can I say?
On the other hand, an understanding of the big picture based on openly visible market signals, of systems theory, and how everything in our globalised economy is deeply intertwined, thereby cursing it with a level of instability and vulnerability that has never before existed, inexorably leads to an entirely different conclusion. And not a pretty one at that.
I’m no economist but even I can put two and two together when enough pieces of the puzzle are revealed.
So, what is the schedule?
I agree with others here that sometime in the next year the snowball will gain speed and the dominoes will really start to topple. I don’t think it’s a case of central banks being able to pull more rabbits out of the hat. They may have some more tricks up their sleeve but it won’t make any difference at that point because all confidence will have been lost for other reasons. Something will happen that exposes the lie and even the most dumbed down believer on plantation earth will snap out of their coma and realise the jig is up. Of course, it’ll be too late to actually do anything at that point so most everyone will panic, blame everyone else for not having done something sooner and then demand that BAU is propped up as the bubblegum world they were sold begins to crumble around them. At this stage, the plantation workers will beg on their knees for solutions however draconian. Anything to keep the electronic slop flowing to their screens.
Corporate profits are not only down, bankruptcies and layoffs are really starting to pick up steam. People have been emptying their bank accounts in various “test” countries already and this will continue. Pension plans will be liquidated to pay the bills.
A year or two ago, I thought Harry Brownes Permanent Portfolio represented an excellent way to protect your wealth in an unstable investment environment. Now? I don’t care. Cash will do. Where I live, we have our own spring water, arable land, ocean for fish and seafood, and plentiful forests. What more can you do?
It’s funny, I tracked technology for the last ten years, mostly automation, robotics and AI. I was worried about how we would handle massive displacement of employees. The only solution I could envisage was a basic income guarantee of some sort – basically, helicopter money infinity! Now I find this to be laughable. I never really doubted that if push came to shove, a surviving technocratic elite would not miss a beat. They would simply allow the rest of us to die.
“+700 trillion in derivatives according to BIS”
If BIS dictates economic policy to all central banks and they already admitted earlier this year that there was nothing more they could do, then why haven’t they already tried to reform the global economic system before it gets worse? And I mean deep reform. Not patches on the walking dead.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11704051/The-world-is-defenseless-against-the-next-financial-crisis-warns-BIS.html
To be honest, I lost my faith in the economy and modern civilisation a long time ago. Consumerism is a disease. Planned obsolecense is a crime. Most of our media and entertainment is poison for the mind. Our treatment of the environment and animals is psychotic. Much of our economic activity is a lie which means that most people dedicate their entire lives to a lie. We live in a cesspit of fraud that is on a parralel with The Truman Show. What’s to like?
I think there will be an event – a very simple, clear signal – that every average Joe will not be able to ignore. That will be the point of no return. No more denial. No soul will question the message that that signal sends. Believe it or not, everyone already knows deep down what is happening. Some are simply better equipped for a life of denial.
There wouldn’t be much of a problem if only one or two national economies collapsed and that was that. But that’s already been happening. The dominant players though, despite appearances, are much worse off, in terms of debt, than smallfry like Greece. Many believe that global conflict involving the Us, Russia, China will be used to mask our economic woes and stimulate post-war growth. I don’t see this as possible due to the nuclear Mexican standoff these nations set up decades ago. Any attempt at a preemptive strike would be suicidal. Leaders giving those orders would be assasinated before turning the key.
I think alternative currencies would be coopted by TPTB and then destroyed. The only way to stop this would be to remove TPTB – possible, but not likely.
It would be great if debt could be pardoned or extended indefinately to be payed off by our asteroid mining decendents with pocket money. But of course, money in and of itself is not the problem. We need to replace cheap energy sources and we need to do it now. The only things I’ve come across that even attempt to address this part of the equation are ridiculously ambitious nuclear energy projects (Gen III reactors by the thousands) and GM bacteria projects to replace oil (this one still looks promising IMO). Oh, and things like Plasma Converters that tranform any kind of garbage into SynGas (very cool).
Can any of these practical solutions be rolled out in time? Based on what I’ve seen so far, it’s very hard to believe. But then, that would mean that all of those very smart people working on those projects all around the world… would be wrong. Something to think about.
But no, I don’t know exactly when the lights will go out. Or when the shelves will empty. All I know is that most people will not be prepared. Martial Law will be enacted and city dwellers will be lucky to get their ration of lentils and rice.
What kind of economic reform would you have BIS do? Last I checked Tim Jackson and Peter Victor who were working on steady-state economics, or Green Economics, had all their models crash by rampant unemployment. Unfortunately it seems Fast Eddy is right, either we grow, or we crash and burn. Kate Raworth also, last I checked, didn´t have any viable feasible models to transition to a steady-state economy. And this summers Club of Romes meetings seemed not to have produced any viable feasible solutions in their open workshops.
Yup, there are many bright people working on these problems, but zero, zip, zilch, nada on the solutions front so far.
Any Draconian measures would imply cancellation of the constitutions, not an easy thing to do in an Democracy.
We could give abundant capital to all kinds of Co-ops, by state-backed investment banks, to cut off the unemployment death spiral. That would be something Richard Wolff would like, but almost all other economists would hate. Unfortunately economics is not an science like physics or chemistry. Only in Economics you can get two opposite solution models for the same problem, both being equally right according to commonly accepted theory..
Unfortunately, I agree with your assessment on economic reform. I don’t discount steady state models entirely. They exist in nature in various forms so we have a precedent.
The problem is that the human family detached itself from natural processes some time ago and so here we are looking for alchemical ways to transform a pig into a rose. 90% of our population, our economy, infrastructure and other achievements were built on sand and are set to vaporize as the mirage dissolves to nothing.
Why do the models collapse? Because that is the mostly likely outcome and really shouldn’t surprise anyone. Unless the models are preloaded with junk data deliberately to force the desired result. Climate models appear to suffer from this too. Where there exists massive political incentive, you can expect manipulation on a massive scale. Our whole existence is one such massive manipulation. But even if we stay within the boundaries of mainstream understanding, we still face a problem of epic proportions. At least, from a human-centric point of view. The rest of the universe doesn’t give two hoots what happens to us. And even our own biosphere would recover given enough time or become a dead planet. Again, nature really doesn’t care.
On that note, why would TPTB deliberately obstruct any viable pathways leading to solutions and near enough steady state economies? Nuclear researchers make the claim that IFR (integral fast reactors) development was deliberately shut down in the ninetees using false proliferation issues as the excuse. These reactors would have provided near unlimited power for centuries and reduced existing waste fuel. The only conclusion I can arrive at is that there is no intention to do the right thing. There is an understanding that civilisation will unravel and that the Elect will survive and become gods.
So what are the examples of near steady state systems in nature? Well, there are trees that have lived for more than 4000 years. I would say that’s reasonably steady state, wouldn’t you? As in, the tree didn’t simply reach a peak and then immediately enter rapid decline and death. It sustained its existence at a steady state by conserving energy, not moving, and not requiring brainpower or advanced technology.
We can do better than that you say? We can develop closed systems that recycle everything we use. We can also conserve energy and keep population within sustainable limits. We can ration all resources or create a system where the commonwealth is equally distributed, at least for basic living needs.
The problem with resource based economic models is that they would require a level of dictatorship and global governence that most people are uncomfortable with. And yet, it’s the only way that any of these schemes could be implemented. And of course, the first requirement once opposition had been eliminated would be radical population reduction back to manageable levels. Remaining humanity would be corralled into super-efficient cities where every aspect of life is micro-managed. Not the brightest of prospects but faced with extinction, it’s better than nothing.
I am a member of BIEN – Basic Income Earth Network. A remnant of my days dreaming large about automation utopias which, you guessed it, lead to massive unemployment. Instead of entertaining the unthinkable population reduction scenario, many of us believed that somehow a basic income could be enacted to save us from annihilation. I still believe this would work to some extent, but it would require a radical transformation in the way we run things. No elite cabal would favour such a system unless it formed part of a population reduction scheme e.g. accept sterilisation for inclusion in the scheme.
To be honest, I don’t even think it’s feasible to manage the collapse of the bubble world in any kind of organised way. Beneath our civilised exterior we are savages and would rapidly revert to this state given the circumstances. There would be some value in coming together in co-ops as you suggest, but only as long as you are prepared to hand over your property and women to the protection brigades made up of ex military and cops as per Dmitry Orlov’s account of collapse in Russia.
Javier, I didn´t quite get the part how the Elect survive and become gods?
Circular Economy, or 100% circular economy is a pipe dream like 100% green economy. If a human has needs he uses resources, and entropy takes care that 100% can not be achieved. Sure, we can do a whole lot better then today, but to be fully sustainable, I think not.
Dmitry Orlov has excellent points. But if we don´t have oil, and cut petrol use, we become more local. So, if you hand your property and women to the protection brigades made up of ex military, who at this point are local, I think that´s just a personal weakness of not organizing enough resistance to those guys, locally. But then again, if you go with Fast Eddys scenario, it will all be so fast and furious, that there will be no time to think about any of this stuff.
“Tim Jackson and Peter Victor who were working on steady-state economics, or Green Economics, had all their models crash by rampant unemployment. …there are many bright people working on these problems, but zero, zip, zilch, nada on the solutions front so far.” I’m interested in following up; can you please post links? Is any of this work published?
Van Kent
“Unfortunately it seems Fast Eddy is right, either we grow, or we crash and burn.”
Um, I think this is Gail’s blog site, not FE’s… Perhaps she gets some acknowledgement?
There are quite a number of participants who hold this position…. I’m just the Poster Child for fast collapse… (Fast Collapse Eddy)
@Van Kent
“Javier, I didn´t quite get the part how the Elect survive and become gods?”
Only in their psychotic dreams of post-human futures that involve mind-uploading and living as robots on one of Saturn’s moons 😉
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ay_4ZllJ9qo&w=420&h=315%5D
I didn’t mean 100% closed loop economy, just as close to the tree example as possible – which I deliberately chose – to show how ridiculous that would be to even attempt. The tree dies anyway. It just lived a bit longer than usual.
We could also stop breathing to save energy and not emit CO2 but you get my point. I still think that something along the lines of your co-ops would work in a limited way as long as the rules were followed by all at all times and that’s the tricky part – we are not very good at that. In that way you would get closer to the goal of sustaining a community for longer than usual – by conserving energy – but as you say, it’s not a closed system and breaks down quickly anyway. That’s not to say it shouldn’t be pursued to extend survival rates for a while.
I suppose it would help if you have a large contingent of vets and cops in your community that would be prepared to take on the protection role for “rewards” other than property and women. It’s when they come in from other areas that’s a problem. And as others have said, Russia didn’t collapse in a vaccuum. The rest of the world was able to help out somewhat.
Even if a staggered collaspe occurs region by region allowing some local organisation to take place, you eventually end up in the same place as international trade and assistance dries up. Then it’s every man for himself.
Javier,
Why is it “every man for himself” ? Because its human nature? In adverse conditions I find our species working together and surviving, lone wolfs tending to wither away.
I just think there would be a lot to gain by co-operation:
-Start a local currency
-Start work parties and voluntary work groups
-Secure as much grain as possible, by negotiating with farmers what they need, and providing the farmers with what they need
-Secure mills and bakeries to build “Food Factories”
– Secure a radio station to entertain, inform, educate and recruit people
– Provide security to key resources on a few hundred miles radius from your HQ
– Secure breweries for ethanol, to fuel your generators
-(in coastal cities) International shipping containers are now useless. Secure all shipping containers to grow food. Combine shipping containers with useless windows to mass produce green houses.
– Mass produce rain water collecting systems and water tanks on top of buildings. Mass produce water filtration systems. Mass produce BioChar and activated charcoal for those filtration systems.
– Mass produce chicken coops, rabbit coops, potatoes grown in sacks, bug farms, hydroponic farming and greenhouse gutters for all available windows
– Build windmills on top of high buildings and structures, to pump water to the water towers etc. Use Mykonos style sails on windmills to maximize wind power.
– Mass produce useless freeze boxes and refrigerators as either earth sheltered root cellars (well ventilated) or fish tanks for hydroponics
– Mass produce bikes that have water pumps taken from useless cars, to pump water in fish tanks etc.
-Secure hundreds of cars to be used as food drying platforms.
– Mass produce (scavenge) bricks for fire places and masonry heaters. Mass produce efficient masonry heaters
Javier, I think that when push comes to shove, to get all the needed work done, we naturally organize ourselves in to efficient groups.
Nice list!
The risk is not AI. The risk is over population, resource depletion and toxic waste.
It is time for the threat assessment teams of the worlds militarys to reach the obvious conclusion and the needed actions.
Your wish may be granted sooner than you think. After ongoing removal of high ranking military personnel in the states and a high level of awareness among servicemen that they are being utilised by the banksters to do their dirty work, support for a military coup is at an all time high.
Whether it happens or not is another matter, but if there is any sector that can force the hand of the reigning plutocracy / cleptocracy it’s the military forces of the world. What comes after that though is not always pretty. But what other options do we have? Maybe the general public can hold the emergent governing body accountable somewhat. Iceland provided the model, but they were very small scale in comparison. But it’s a viable model none the less.
In fact, AI may be one of those hail Mary solutions that actually gets us through the bottleneck.
Good comment.
“Anything to keep the electronic slop flowing to their screens.” More like keep the calories flowing to their kitchens.
“We need to replace cheap energy sources and we need to do it now.” Physics says this is not going to happen.
A busy night in Asia began with a total collapse in Philippines Exports (-24.7% YoY – the biggest miss since Lehman).
This was quickly followed by a 0.3% drop (deflation) in CPI MoM (thanks to a drop in pork -1.9%, eggs -6.9%, and veggies -5.6%) which sparked buying in stocks (because moar stimulus). Chatter of a few large fund houses under investigation stymied the rally quickly but as nobody was summoned stocks recovered, then rallied strongly back into the green on renewed chatter of Stock Connect occurring sooner than expected. With CSI-300 (China’s S&P 500), up at the break, this is the longest winning streak since the peak of the bubble in May. And finally Shanghai Copper and Nickel tumbled to new multi-year lows, dragging Bloomberg’s Commodity Index to fresh 16-year lows.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-09/chinese-stocks-longest-win-streak-bubble-peak-after-cpi-commodities-tumble-philippin
What is important to watch is situation on “growing markerts”, that’s not Philippines but places like Vietnam etc. When these go double digits y/y into red then brace for impact not now. Lets not be hysteric..
AlexS wrote the blurb below, which was posted on Ron’s site.
“Just like high oil prices can’t last, a prolonged period of low prices is “also unsustainable, as it will induce large investment cuts and reduce the resilience of the oil industry, undermining the future security of supply and setting the scene for another sharp price rise,” the prince said in the remarks. “As a responsible and reliable producer with long-term horizon, the kingdom is committed to continue to invest in its oil and gas sector, despite the drop in the oil price.”
Sure, as supply at some point probably in 2016 or 2017 wanes, price will rise. But how much of a rise can consumers handle before tepid growth transitions from higher prices to no growth? Then the oil price must come back down with lower exploration occurring in tandem, further risking future supply. The lid on the boiling pot of ever increasing millions of barrels is tip tapping around with the peak of oil not far off.
I was just wondering what would happen if rationing was applied across the board in some wild attempt to stave off national bankruptcy. Instead of waiting for a war situation just do it now. Curb unnecesary travel, ration industrial and consumer energy use, ration food. And so on. And of course, the economy would implode. A disaster of epic proportions. So what can you realistically do?
Javier,
“I was just wondering what would happen if rationing was applied across the board in some wild attempt to stave off national bankruptcy.” Unfortunately, as tempting as it sounds I believe that rationing would accelerate economic collapse in many countries who are already on the margins. In stronger economies it would mean severe recession if not an outright depression.
Insane isn’t. The only solution is to keep speeding towards the edge of the cliff all the while stocking up on doughnuts and cream for the trip down.
Spain faced a possible breakup. Catalonia, Spain’s second-largest autonomous region, pledged a “disconnection from the Spanish state.” The Catalan legislature voted to initiate a process, opposed by the national government, to declare independence by 2017.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/09/catalonia-mps-to-vote-on-secession-plan-in-showdown-with-spains-government
100% not going to happen …
Just like the socialist government that won the elections in Portugal is not going to happen http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11949701/AEP-Eurozone-crosses-Rubicon-as-Portugals-anti-euro-Left-banned-from-power.html
“Whatever it takes”
Yes, it won’t happen: just look at the date for ‘independence’ – 2017. Lot’s of time for negotiation.
The leader of half the pro-independence group, Artur Mas the President of the Catalan Govt. actually said ‘There is after all, no such thing as real independence in the EU’. For obvious reasons, hardly anyone ever refers to that pregnant sentence…..
There are some pro-independence fanatics, but people like Mas are just keeping their votes up (tricky as an older, corrupt party in a lively political scene with two major new parties) and hoping to get a better tax deal from central govt. in Madrid.
It’s all theatre, although some of the actors and many of the voters don’t realise it.
As they say… “All the world’s a stage, And all the men and women merely players.”
And most of the time we’re being played like a fiddle.
I’m not quite sure if that’s a cause for optimism or utter despair. Of one thing I’m sure… we shall all find find out in due course.
On the other hand, isn’t one of the highly probable features of a collapse scenario the breakup of nation states into smaller regional units? So to say that something like the above “will never happen” may be a little shortsighted coming from collapse true believers like FE.
Assuming that TSHTF sometime soon, I can see individual nations managing the problem in different ways depending on specifics. I would think Martial Law would be the way to go followed by rationing of all commodities and travel. Failing this – i.e. a national government is left so weak as to even implement this – a neighbouring government will gladly move in to restore order in the hope of retaining the spoils. If neighbouring nations find themsleves to be in a similar predicament simultaneously because a global domino effect leads to system wide collapse, then you would expect the break up of these nations into smaller localised territories and “governing bodies” i.e. warlords.
Just as we look at oil exporting countries in terms of net oil available for export. We need to look at China in terms of net balance of trade. Fast shows us loads of data on a China slow down but it is from a western point of view. Less imports means less wealth in the west. But it seems China has shutdown imports much faster than exports so they have record earnings. From the Chinese point of view net international trade is booming.
True, yes it makes sense and last numbers from Europe/Germany suggest the machines/components orders bound to China are falling like a rock. Besides the Chinese business model is to order from the west new technology for lets say 4cities subways and to be performed in joint venture plus technology transfer, sometime they sugar up it by followup order for more 2 cities along the way. However, and here is the deal, when the contract time is up, they have got the know-how transfer, factory/scientists/skilled workers in place and the westeners won’t get build anything in next 20megacities, it’s all domestic from now on. Now, similar system works for most of their economy-sectors with some little exceptions like top jet engines (must buy from Russia) etc.
The moral of the story is such the end game (for the times) comes only when chinese feel saturated enough in knowhow imported, trade deals in the region and globally finally signed. We are getting close, but their advantage to kick the table and sidestep petrodollar system for good seems more like towards 2025. Hopefully the west won’t be able monkeywnrech it by WWIII since TPTB are already on the plan of pivoting to Asia leaving US/EU for bust. But obviously there is still some tiny risk outstanding of crazies taking over in the US and nuking everything for irational reasons.
“We are getting close, but their advantage to kick the table and sidestep petrodollar system for good seems more like towards 2025. Hopefully the west won’t be able monkeywnrech it by WWIII since TPTB are already on the plan of pivoting to Asia leaving US/EU for bust. But obviously there is still some tiny risk outstanding of crazies taking over in the US and nuking everything for irational reasons.”
Agree worldof… China loading up on physical gold many assert is to build up to the point of being the reserve currency supplanting the USD. The transition from the West to East is in progress. Possible crazy US prez could get into a war footing out of frustration of losing top dog position. I’m not so sure the risk is tiny, but rather a concern as people get angry about reductions in std. of living and possibly vote in a fascist or rapture visionary. Ben Carson is just such a guy, claiming he almost knifed a friend as a teenager and believes 100% in the coming rapture.
So you’re saying there’s a future for the nearly 3 billion souls in China and India? Yes, two governments alone (you could include the rest of south east asia) have to manage that many people and resources. I would say they’re not doing a very good job of it so far. Much of rural China and India are still in abject poverty. Meanwhile, the gov squanders valuable resources and labour on ghost cities, high speed trains, and manufacturing vast amounts of junk for the west. Both countries are ramping up their nuclear power projects and renewables. These would be solid investments if exports continued to stay high. But how can they if the rest of the world tanks?
I agree absolutely that the losers will throw a hissy fit. My preference would be cyberattacks, destabilisation strategies, proxy wars, weather wars etc. as oposed to nuclear. There are many ways to ruin a country whilst leaving the spoils intact. There’s no way a country would launch nukes – they would be flattened within minutes. But detonate a nuke in the deep sea fault line off the coast of your rival and any number of ageing nuclear power plants could could go critical from the resulting tsunami… not saying that’s ever happened of course…
Imports and exports re: China are weakening… weak imports indicate that people are consuming less domestically — weak exports indicate that people are buying less stuff overseas.
Grow — or collapse.
On Thursday the New York State Public Service Commission will hear from the community near my house. I will go. I will point out we will need about 240GW of PV panels for the state. That with storage the cost will be about one trillion dollars. That individual families will need access to 0.25% debt to pay for their $200,000 share of the system. I will ask when the state will arrange the low cost debt of the citizens. [I of course know the little people will never be allowed to be the owners of the means of production. It will be done by the electric monopolies already owned by the 0.1% that will get any 0.25% loans.]
At 0.25% interest building a trillion dollar energy system is a brilliant idea. Let the bankers and the holders of cash pay the price. As long a trust holds on until the system is built out we in New York will have a valuable physical asset and they will have worthless debt that will never be paid.
Dunk, it’s a pretty straightforward proposition: either humanity collectively drives off the cliff together, or as Javier suggests, the controlling powers – who certainly understand what is occurring – make the appropriate moves.
There is only one possible solution: population reduction in concert with (drastically) reduced per capita consumption. However, a baseline is required to maintain the core engine(s) of civilization, primarily oil production & electrical generation. Solve those two issues, and a scientific & technological elite can literally buy centuries of time.
So, the question thane becomes: who will determine the outcome? Who makes the moves? Again, I agree with Javier that we’re actually dealing with a very long line of ancient families, groups & associations. You have to then ask yourself: what are their characteristics? Outsiders ie the 98% representing the serfs cultivated & domesticated over millenia, call them psychopaths. But let’s reverse the equation – maybe the 2% are “normal”, and we, the 98%, are the ones with debilitating genetic deficiencies.
Lastly, it appears Paul is coming around. If you check my posts, I believe I quoted Travis from ZH awhile ago “The king kills the bankers.” The Elders have been kicked out of hundreds of countries – always when they’ve worn out their welcome. King John booted them from England in 1290 – go read why, and tell me how it was different than from today. LOL
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edict_of_Expulsion
So yes, as BAU comes apart at the seams, taking the debt-money regime with it, the old military organizations once again increase their public presence as they patiently explain (or not) to the sheep why their goose is cooked. No more gas guzzling monster 4×4 trucks for retards, no more massively energy consuming solar devices for hippies.
Rather, back to manual labor so that science can continue to work full-time towards the genetic silver bullet.
I like the way you think. I certainly believe there’s more going on here than meets the all-seeing eye. There is so much that we are not privy to that we can’t even begin to realistically fathom what’s at hand.
Consider that corporations (that were set up by the same military orders to dominate global trade and enslave nations) and deep underground military bases have been operating secret projects in the dark for the last hundred years. Consider that China and other countries are openly running advanced genetic programs. Consider then what they have been developing in secret. Food for thought?
“Outsiders ie the 98% representing the serfs cultivated & domesticated over millenia, call them psychopaths. But let’s reverse the equation – maybe the 2% are “normal”, and we, the 98%, are the ones with debilitating genetic deficiencies.”
Wow! I can guarantee you that not many people have looked at things in that way. I have long thought that psychopaths see themselves as normal. Brutal ruthlessness has lead them to believe that they and they alone have been granted the divine right to rule.
Without going too deeply into theories about why psychopahs rule the world, it’s worth adding that brain scans have shown functional “holes” in the brains of pyschopahs. Areas that normally light up when a subject feels empathy are totally dark. As you correctly suggest, this is neither normal nor abnormal, simply different.
And yet, that difference has created individuals that raised empires, slaughtered neighbouring tribes, created the banking system we now have, and the psychopathic corporations that wantonly destroy our planet for profit. Profit that feeds back into the black projects that further increase their power. And on it goes.
You have to wonder what the rest of humanity would have been like without the input of prominent psychopaths. Ultimately, we have to conclude that it is they that are “faulty” and not the rest of us. All we have to do is judge a tree by its fruit. Frankly, their fruit is as rotten as it gets. Nature would not want us to eat of it under any circumstances!
Since the ancient ones have obviously thought this through, there are two ways they could approach the continuation of their lust for power…
1. from the shadows. Retire to their underground bases and wait for rabble on the surface to kill each other off. All they have to do is maintain the spent fuel ponds until they resurface.
2. out in the open. Reveal their true nature to the serfs and control as much of the remaining polulation through the usual methods. Heads on spikes worked fairly well in the past. Every road led to Rome and every single one wreaked of rotting flesh.
Of course, it would be a bonus if the Elders and their most loyal minions could be gentically engineered to be radioresistant and photosynthetic (is that a word?) then the troublesome fuel ponds wouldn’t be so much of a problem and mealtime would constitute sunbathing.
Either way, I’m not sure it makes any difference. Whatever the outcome in a collapse scenario – fast and no one hangs on to merry go round or slow decline with psychopaths intact – neither is very appealing.
There is a slight problem with these theories…
If the Elites have a plan — then why in the hell are they going to so much bother to try to maintain the current paradigm?
Why didn’t they just say — in 2008 — sorry folks — but you all get to die now — there are too many of you useless feeders. Sayonara suckers…
That was the perfect opportunity to put an end to the damage being done by a massively over-populated world….
Surely the Elites would want to get on with this sooner than later — every day they push out the end game the more the hordes ravage the planet….
My apologies FE. You’re absolutely right. There’s a lot missing from the discussion. Allow me to explain…
There are several answers to this but all them form part of the bigger picture. So far, I’ve been addressing the mindset of a specific faction within the overall Elder network. Lets call this faction “the dark side”. These would be the black hats in the system. Their goal is to undermine progress, to infiltrate all institutions, and to bring about the destruction of mankind or God’s creation in their words. They have a deep hatred for mankind and follow a strict doctrine of obedience within a hierarchy. Whether you believe it not, this faction worships Lucifer and Satan and runs a global network of unsavory practices. The reason this faction doesn’t care too much about specifics or their own postioning post-collpase etc. is because they belong to a suicidal death cult. The end goal is more important to this group than any personal reward. They wish to satisfy their master by destroying themselves in the process – the ultimate sacrifice and symbol of obedience. If you think this implausible, just think for a moment what goes through the mind of an islamic suicide bomber as they prepare for an attack.
I’m asssuming that when you mention the Elders, you’re referring to the whole – a conglomerate of self-appointed rulers that run everything on the planet from organised religion to banking to the pharmaceutical industry to the world’s military forces. And you’d be right, but within the whole there exist many factions that constantly jostle for control, at times openly exposing the ridiculous nature of this dance e.g. MI6 or SAS operatives caught carrying out false flag terrorist attacks by MI5. Operatives within the highest levels of military intelligence may be aligned with any number of opposing factions and so are continually chasing each other’s tails. Sad but true.
And that brings me to the other prominant group of factions. Lets call these the White Hats. In general, these groups are made up of individuals that have made a commitment to protect the human race from the actions of the enemy within. In similar fashion, they undermine, infiltrate, and generally set back the plans of the dark side. And of course, many give their lives for the cause. This faction are responsible for the beneficial changes that have happened throughout our history. We have them to thank for all the stability we have enjoyed as a species in our time.
This battle has been fought throuhgout the ages and in ages past it may have been more apparent than it is now. We live in the age of obfuscation and the dumbed down consumer slave after all.
So there you have it. One group would love to end humanity right here, right now, even if it means going down with the ship. The other group, out of a deep love for their own kind, tries to save everyone even if it means they get destroyed by overpopulation.
Both points of view are irrational. But what can you do when most of human history and decision making is based on astrotheology and allegiances to imagined energetic beings. I certainly don’t see any evidence of this in nature so my only conclusion is that we are at the mercy of delusional apes with unusually large prefrontal cortexes.
In the end though, does any of it really matter. The family dynasties that stay permanently out of the limelight – the true masters – may believe themselves to be omnipotent but nature could wipe them out in the blink of an eye. There is no doubt though, that the darker minds among them would speed that process up if they could. They would love for the fuel ponds to erupt and finish it all corrupting God’s other creatures too. You have to understand the reversal of beauty in their minds and the hatred they have for all the things that we consider beautiful. No sane mind would invent chemical and radiological weapons, or genetically engineered bubonic plague or ebola and yet they have.
And that’s why I have to conclude that we’re being lead to believe something that may not be entirely true. Either that or the show really is up and the delusional Elders are screwed along with everone else.
Over to you…
I am skeptical of a power group existing whose goal is suicide… that would go against Mr DNA — who ultimately is in command…. I see no reason why powerful wealthy men would want to destroy themselves and the world.
I am also an atheist by profession — and I would expect the Elders are the same — I don’t think they’d go in for this good vs evil — god vs devil stuff….
I suspect there motto would be that there are no friends or enemies — no good or evil — only interests…. I think it was Kissinger who mentioned that….
I subscribe to a different theory on all of this ….. it mirrors what happens in the jungle….
– The luckiest, fittest, smartest, with the capability for ruthlessness survive – always have – always will
– Resources are finite and therefore ownership is a zero sum game
– The strong always take from the weak – if they do not then that is a sign of weakness and a competitor will take from the weak and will usurp the formerly strong dropping them into weakling status
– Humans tend to group by clan or on a broader basis by nationality (strength in numbers bonded by culture) and they compete with others for resources
– Competition always exist (I want it all!) but it becomes fiercer when resources are not sufficient to support competing clans or nations
– Tribal societies understand these dynamics because they cannot go to the grocery store for their food – so they are intimately aware of the daily battle to feed themselves and the competition for scare land and resources
– Modern affluent societies do not recognize this dynamic because for them resources are not scarce – they have more than enough.
– One of the main reasons that resources are not scarce in affluent societies is because they won the battle of the fittest (I would argue that luck is the precursor to all other advantages – affluent societies did not get that way because they started out smarter — rather they were lucky – and they parlayed that luck into advances in technology… including better war machines)
– As we have observed throughout history the strong always trample the weak. Always. History has always been a battle to take more in the zero sum game. The goal is to take all if possible (if you end up in the gutter eating grass the response has been – better you than me – because I know you’d do the same to me)
– And history demonstrates that the weak – given the opportunity – would turn the tables on the strong in a heartbeat. If they could they would beat the strong into submission and leave them bleeding in the streets and starving. As we see empire after empire after empire gets overthrown and a new power takes over. Was the US happy to share with Russia and vice versa? What about France and England? Nope. They wanted it all.
– Many of us (including me) in the cushy western world appear not to understand what a villager in Somalia does – that our cushy lives are only possible because our leaders have recognized that the world is not a fair place — Koobaya Syndrome has no place in this world — Koombaya will get you a bullet in the back — or a one way trip to the slum.
– Religious movements have attempted to change the course of human nature — telling us to share and get along — they have failed 100% – as expected. By rights we should be living in communes — Jesus was a communist was he not? We all know that this would never work. Because we want more. We want it all.
– But in spite of our hypocrisy, we still have this mythical belief that mankind is capable of good – that we make mistakes along the way (a few genocides here, a few there… in order to steal the resources of an entire content so we can live the lives we live) — ultimately we believe we are flawed but decent. We are not. Absolutely not.
– But our leaders — who see through this matrix of bullshit — realize that our cushy lives are based on us getting as much of the zero sum game as possible. That if they gave in to this wishy washy Koombaya BS we would all be living like Somalians.
– Of course they cannot tell us what I am explaining here — that we must act ruthlessly because if we don’t someone else will — and that will be the end of our cushy lives. Because we are ‘moral’ — we believe we are decent – that if we could all get along and share and sing Koombaya the world would be wonderful. We do not accept their evil premises.
– So they must lie to us. They must use propaganda to get us onside when they commit their acts of ruthlessness.
– They cannot say: we are going to invade Iraq to ensure their oil is available so as to keep BAU operating (BAU which is our platform for global domination). The masses would rise against that making things difficult for the PTB who are only trying their best to ensure the hypocrites have their cushy lives and 3 buck gas (and of course so that the PTB continue to be able to afford their caviar and champagne) …. Because they know if the hypocrites had to pay more or took at lifestyle hit – they’d be seriously pissed off (and nobody wants to be a Somalian)
– Which raises the question — are we fools for attacking the PTB when they attempt to throw out Putin and put in a stooge who will be willing to screw the Russian people so that we can continue to live large? When we know full well that Putin would do the same to us — and if not him someone more ruthless would come along and we’d be Somalians.
– Should we be protesting and making it more difficult for our leaders to make sure we get to continue to lead our cushy lives? Or should we be following the example of the Spartans https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZeYVIWz99I
– In a nutshell are our interests as part of the western culture not completely in line with those of our leaders – i.e. if they fail we fail – if they succeed we succeed.
– Lee Kuan Yew is famous for saying ‘yes I will eat very well but if I do so will you’ Why bite the hand that whips the weak to make sure you eat well…. If you bite it too hard it cannot whip the weak — making you the weak — meaning you get to feel the whip….
– Nation… clan … individual…. The zero sum game plays out amongst nations first … but as resources become more scarce the battle comes closer to home with clans battling for what remains…. Eventually it is brother against brother ….
– As the PTB run out of outsiders to whip and rob…. They turn on their own…. As we are seeing they have no problem with destroying the middle class because it means more for them… and when the weak rise against them they have no problem at all deploying the violent tactics that they have used against the weak across the world who have attempted to resist them
– Eventually of course they will turn against each other…. Henry Kissinger and Maddy Albright bashing each other over the head with hammers fighting over a can of spam – how precious!
Dear Fast Eddy, I’ve been away for a while and am trying to catch up. Something I have missed — The Elders. What do you mean by this? Does this mean Jewish Elders? You are very thought provoking, as always! Thanks, Lizzy
This topic is not allowed because I suppose it will bring out the Nazi hunters…
The most I will say is that The Elders refer to the Elders of Zion (aka the decision makers) …. when you google that you will find about 5000 results that say it is a hoax…. which of course means it is not a hoax and that you just need to dig further to find the rabbit hole….
FE, I agree with you. It doesn’t make sense for the Elites, the Elders, the PTB, whatever you want to call them to prolong this very long, or to go to such great lengths to create believable paradigms for the masses. I think there is too much hunting behind the headlines here to try and read the tea leaves that may not even exist. There are some crazy doomers on this site who let their imaginations and or paranoia get in the way of logical thought. Human beings are not wired for long-term planning and multi-generational ancient family cabals are simply myths that people want to believe in. In fact, all human organizations break down in short order. The sad truth is that no one is really in control of this predicament. There may have once been a time when this was true. There may even be PTB who still think they are in charge, but in reality events have spun too far out for anyone to control at this point. We are all just along for the ride now. Make your preps, enjoy your lives, and don’t worry too much about what is coming because it isn’t going to make much difference.
I have a slightly different slant on that…
There is very obviously a group controlling things …. they are continuing to make decisions regarding printing money — overriding democracy (see Portugal) — propping up the stock markets… etc…
But they are beginning to lose their ability to control the narrative…… because their tools are becoming dulled by overuse….
I can’t disagree with any of that. I don’t think it matters how powerful any of the controlling groups may have been, they too are reaching limits.
Definitely – their power is based on the control of money — and money is only a representation of energy …. therefore their levers of power are about to be mangled….
The Elders are at present extremely motivated to make use of all their ingenuity to keep BAU going as long as possible — because they understand that when it goes — their empire ends (along with their lives).
They are literally fighting for their lives (and ours)
There is nothing logical about human history.
Logic is a flawed human tool that people use to make preliminary assumptions about things they no nothing about. It’s common to hear talk of “it doesn’t make sense” or “it’s highly unlikely for that to be true” followed by accusations of paranoia, “crazy” etc. because the narrative does not suit one’s own preconceived ideas. You must protect that comfort zone at all times. But without actually looking into the topic at all.
Ask yourself how one family alone can rule for several centuries and you’ll get closer to the answer – and no, it’s not logical captain.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Medici
Then try to understand how it’s not the families or individuals that are important. Only the transfer of specific knowledge is required to maintain a continuum of dominance.
But yeah, I agree with the rest of what you said.
There is much discussion of spent fuel pools, and the danger of them losing water. (Eddy — are you reading this?) I asked a friend of mine, now retired, who was very high in the government nuclear establishment. He said that a dry pool would be very nasty, but he had no definitive number.
With the help of the gods of Google ( actually Bing ) I found this.
“The committee judges that successful terrorist attacks on spent fuel pools, though difficult, are possible. If an attack leads to a propagating zirconium cladding fire, it could result in the release of large amounts of radioactive material. ”
The whole thing can be read here.
http://www.cfr.org/weapons-of-mass-destruction/nuclear-spent-fuel-pools-secure/p8967
That looks like it is based on this :
A typical 1 GWe PWR core contains about 80 t fuels. Each year about one third of the core fuel is discharged into the pool. A pool with 15 year storage capacity will hold about 400 t spent fuel.
To estimate the Cs-137 inventory in the pool, for example, we assume the Cs137 inventory at shutdown is about 0.1 MCi/tU with a burn-up of 50,000 MWt-day/tU, thus the pool with 400 t of ten year old SNF would hold about 33 MCi Cs-137. [7]
Assuming a 50-100% Cs137 release during a spent fuel fire, [8] the consequence of the Cs-137 exceed those of the Chernobyl accident 8-17 times (2MCi release from Chernobyl). Based on the wedge model, the contaminated land areas can be estimated. [9] For example, for a scenario of a 50% Cs-137 release from a 400 t SNF pool, about 95,000 km² (as far as 1,350 km) would be contaminated above 15 Ci/km² (as compared to 10,000 km² contaminated area above 15 Ci/km² at Chernobyl).
http://belfercenter.hks.harvard.edu/publication/364/radiological_terrorism.html
If this is not an extinction event then it is in the very least going to make for a world filled with cancer patients…
95,000 sq km is about 300km by 300km or east 150 km, west 150km, north 150km, and south 150km. Do you live within 150km of a nuclear plant? Since there are none in NZ I am sure you do not.
When Tshernobyl blew, a radioactive cloud slowly spread across western Europe. Years later one could follow the Tshernobyl cloud spread by miscarriages and leukemia etc. “hot spots”. So, 150 km is not nearly enough if we end up having grid down nuclear meltdowns. If that is the case, it will be a bad idea to be outside in Western Europe, Northern America and Japan during SHTF. Or eat food grown in Western Europe, Northern America and Japan during SHTF.
Eating contaminated food won’t be a problem.
There will be no food grown – because the urea truck will not be delivering post SHTF.
Also — when a spent fuel pond blows — it is not like an atomic bomb — a one off — then you get back to business not long after…
A spent fuel pond just keeps on giving …. for decades… it spews its toxic innards…..
The reason to why the cloud from Chernobyl could spread that far is that they had a violent graphite fire going on for weeks. The energy in this fire explains why fallout could reach pretty far, it was pushed high up in the atmosphere. I was a little kid when this happened but I remember having iodine pills tasting odd. The winds brought a lot of the fallout to Sweden and Finland. These countries was hit hardest outside the Soviet. There is a “hot spot” in Sweden. I looked in a recent study about the consequences. It seems like no higher risk of miscarriages or leukemia was relly found. You used to be advised to not eat elk meat, blueberries or mushrooms in that area. This is since some time relaxed. Of, course the population density of this “hot spot” is quite low, which was lucky.
The spent fuel ponds don’t contain any huge amount of graphite. Furthermore, the spent fuel in the fuel ponds are less hot than the fuel used in chernobyl. For these reasons tspent fuel ponds are not really comparable to Chernobyl. A fuel pond accident is probably not good for the closest vicinity. But I am not convinced that they would destroy the whole of the surface of earth.
If any of the spent fuel rods in the pools do indeed catch fire, nuclear experts say, the high heat would loft the radiation in clouds that would spread the radioactivity.
“It’s worse than a meltdown,” said David A. Lochbaum, a nuclear engineer at the Union of Concerned Scientists who worked as an instructor on the kinds of General Electric reactors used in Japan. “The reactor is inside thick walls, and the spent fuel of Reactors 1 and 3 is out in the open.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/16/world/asia/16fuel.html
If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies. Such a scenario would emit radioactive particles into the atmosphere.
Pick your poison.
Fresh fuel is hotter and more radioactive, but is only one fuel assembly. A pool of spent fuel will have dozens of assemblies.
One report from Sankei News said that there are over 700 fuel assemblies stored in one pool at Fukushima. If they all caught fire, radioactive particles—including those lasting for as long as a decade—would be released into the air and eventually contaminate the land or, worse, be inhaled by people. “To me, the spent fuel is scarier. All those spent fuel assemblies are still extremely radioactive,” Dalnoki-Veress says.
It has been known for more than two decades that, in case of a loss of water in the pool, convective air cooling would be relatively ineffective in such a “dense-packed” pool.
Spent fuel recently discharged from a reactor could heat up relatively rapidly to temperatures at which the zircaloy fuel cladding could catch fire and the fuel’s volatile fission product, including 30-year half-life Cs, would be released.
The fire could well spread to older spent fuel.
The long-term land-contamination consequences of such an event could be significantly worse than those from Chernobyl.
http://science.time.com/2011/03/15/a-new-threat-in-japan-radioactive-spent-fuel/
Containing radiation equivalent to 14,000 times the amount released in the atomic bomb attack on Hiroshima 68 years ago, more than 1,300 used fuel rod assemblies packed tightly together need to be removed from a building that is vulnerable to collapse, should another large earthquake hit the area. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/14/us-japan-fukushima-insight-idUSBRE97D00M20130814
The problem is if the spent fuel gets too close, they will produce a fission reaction and explode with a force much larger than any fission bomb given the total amount of fuel on the site. All the fuel in all the reactors and all the storage pools at this site (1760 tons of Uranium per slide #4) would be consumed in such a mega-explosion.
In comparison, Fat Man and Little Boy weapons dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki contained less than a hundred pounds each of fissile material
See more at: http://www.dcbureau.org/20110314781/natural-resources-news-service/fission-criticality-in-cooling-ponds-threaten-explosion-at-fukushima.html
The mental health impact of Chernobyl is regarded by many experts as the largest public health problem unleashed by the accident to date. This paper reviews findings reported during the 20-y period after the accident regarding stress-related symptoms, effects on the developing brain, and cognitive and psychological impairments among highly exposed cleanup workers. With respect to stress-related symptoms, the rates of depressive, anxiety (especially post-traumatic stress symptoms), and medically unexplained physical symptoms are two to four times higher in Chernobyl-exposed populations compared to controls, although rates of diagnosable psychiatric disorders do not appear to be elevated
……
In general, the morbidity patterns are consistent with the psychological impairments documented after other toxic events, such as the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the Three Mile Island accident, and Bhopal.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18049228
………..
[ note that Three Mile Island had a very low release of radiation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Mile_Island_accident#Release_of_radioactive_material ]
]
Fast Eddy
Maybe this guy can give you some hope:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsutomu_Yamaguchi
I’m not a reactor physicist. Maybe you will have right. I didn’t know that heat alone could ignite a fissile chain reaction. But I guess that no one actually knows exactly how bad these spent fuel rods actually are. If you ask different experts about this you probably get different answers. Without a chain reaction it seems likely that the fallout shouldn’t reach the same altitude as in the Chernobyl accident were the main problem actually was the violent graphite fire. The fuel rods was not really pumping the fallout upwards in the atmosphere. In that case we will have 4000 local problems, not a global.
“The long-term land-contamination consequences of such an event could be significantly worse than those from Chernobyl.”
Note: these are the implications of a single pond. There are 4000 of them
http://science.time.com/2011/03/15/a-new-threat-in-japan-radioactive-spent-fuel/
The “could” word makes it a bit less definitive. Also, don’t forget that these researchers like to exaggerate things. It makes their research more important and enables more funding. I saw this closely when I was working on my ph.d thesis.
I don’t deny that what you describe is a possibility. I simply don’t regard it as a necessity.
I am so comforted that don’t think this is a possibility — even though you base that on absolutely nothing….
That analysis indicates what happens if one pond blows….
We are talking about 4000+ spent fuel ponds…. all going up in flames… pumping this stuff out for decades…
There is nowhere to hide from that.
Makes me wonder how the current EROEI on Nuclear as been calculated. If the majority of the waste up to date is still undisposed, because we don´t know how to dispose it safely. And we don´t know how to shut down a Nuclear reactor in less then a dedcade or two. And we don´t know how to survive grid down situations with Nuclear.
Seems to me Nuclear has an abyssmal EROEI.
Pingback: Oops! Low oil prices are related to a debt bubble | Doomstead Diner
@ Bruce’s comment about efficiency
(reply button doesn’t work for me, only on that comment: ??)
Gail has shown in a previous post (http://ourfiniteworld.com/2015/09/14/how-our-energy-problem-leads-to-a-debt-collapse-problem/) that increases in efficiency require big front-end investments, thus causing big increase of debt:
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/world-gdp-growth-divided-between-energy-and-efficiency1.png
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/growth-in-inflation-adusted-debt-and-gdp.png
That’s something we can’t really afford, moreover as the “low hanging fruits” of technological improvements have mostly been already gathered. We cannot expect future efficiency gains to keep pace to counter all the other negative trends linked to growth(s) and diminishing returns.
Not to mention the rebound effect (aka Jevons paradox).
Thank you, Stefeun — especially for mention of Jevons paradox. I’m an electric power engineer and can’t resist the temptation to fix these problems with clever technology, so it’s good to be tempered by the counterintuitive paradoxes of economics. 😉
It seems to me that, if the rebound effect holds, the only thing that gets us out of this mess is a program of energy conservation (voluntary or forced, more-likely the latter), which leads to reductions in energy consumption, which will lead to negative GDP growth. It’s interesting to me that this holds even if there is an effectively-infinite amount of oil underground, it only requires that the costs (in energy and/or dollars) of extraction go upward over time.
To reduce the energy consumption doesn’t work, because that eventually threatens the financial system (which holds everything together). To compensate we then have to increase debt levels like mad, which in the end of the day worsens the global situation. We’ve only delayed the crash, and by doing that, guaranteed to have a bigger one.
That’s exactly what we’re seeing today.
Huh — so there’s no chance at this point of managing a “soft landing” by slowly reducing energy consumption resulting in a modest sustained GDP contraction (-1% to -2% per year) over one or two decades or so, without something going nonlinear (crash) in the financial system?
I was wondering if this slow, languishing “recovery” that is not really a recovery but a contraction that looks like a recovery might be doing just that for us. Perhaps, however, the creative financial fictions that have sustained us thusfar are a house of cards that are ready to fall at any moment.
Basically the system is pushing/prolonging state of equilibrium on a system, which “itself wants to” for reasons of inner instablity snap into disequilibrium and somehow find new lower energy state plateau. Usuallly in historical context such “snap” events take days, weeks, months.. Look around the bastion of “tze stability” Germany has been lately pushed into brewing internal turmoil of unknown midterm consequences, similarly top EUcracts now talk openly about the posibility of EU brake up. Simply, in retrospect unimaginable stuff just a few years ago when the aparatus focused on light bulbs, and normalized vegetable shapes.
New (Nov.01st) post by Steve Ludlum:
“Between Rock and Hard Place”
http://www.economic-undertow.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Triangle-of-Doom-101715.png
“Figure 1: Petroleum markets go non-linear as peak oil theory predicted; the steadily increasing price leads to collapse, something peak oil theory missed; chart by TFC, (Click for Big). The cause is the breakdown in credit; customers are broke which in turn strands the drillers; then ultimately the lenders … leading to real, absolute fuel shortages when drillers can no longer borrow. We find ourselves, between the rock and the hard place; without fuel there is no industry, without credit, industry is insolvent.”
http://www.economic-undertow.com
Figure 1: Petroleum markets go non-linear as peak oil theory predicted; the steadily increasing price leads to collapse, something peak oil theory missed; chart by TFC, (Click for Big). The cause is the breakdown in credit; customers are broke which in turn strands the drillers; then ultimately the lenders … leading to real, absolute fuel shortages when drillers can no longer borrow. We find ourselves, between the rock and the hard place; without fuel there is no industry, without credit, industry is insolvent.
Yet some people believe the really rich people will be able to overcome the above — and continue living in their high tech — bubble of prosperity…
Think again.
The easiest way to think about this is in terms of Friedman’s “helicopter money”, [Friedman, M. 1960] with the government printing dollar bills and then using them to make a lump-sum payment to citizens.
But in modern reality:
It could involve either a tax cut or a public expenditure increase which would not otherwise occur.
It can be one-off or repeated over time.
And it would typically involve the creation of additional deposit rather than paper money. This would be initially in the form of deposit money in the government’s own current accounts which would then be transferred into private deposit accounts either as a tax cut or through additional public expenditure.
There are a number of ways in which the money could be “created” with different precise implications for the central bank balance sheet. They include:
The central bank directly credits the government current account (held either at the central bank itself or at a commercial bank) and records as an asset a non-interest-bearing non-redeemable “due from government” receivable
The government issues interest-bearing debt which the central bank purchases and which is then converted to a non-interest-bearing non-redeemable “due from government” asset
The government issues interest-bearing debt, which the central bank purchases , holds and perpetually rolls over (buying new government debt whenever the government repays old debt), returning to the government as profit the interest income it receives from the government. In this case the central bank must also credibly commit in advance to this perpetual rollover.
But the choice between these different precise mechanisms has no substantive economic consequences, since in all cases:
The consolidated balance sheet of the government and central bank together is the same.
The monetary base of irredeemable non-interest-bearing money is increased
And the government is thus able to cut taxes or increase expenditure without incurring any future liability to pay more interest, or to redeem the capital value of the money created.
More http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-06/stunning-admission-boe-central-banker-what-coming-helicopter-money-will-look
“The central bank directly credits the government current account (held either at the central bank itself or at a commercial bank) and records as an asset a non-interest-bearing non-redeemable “due from government” receivable”
Think about that for a moment…. the central bank — aka the Federal Reserve —- is a private company owned by the big banks …. and it’s going to create money out of thin air …. and basically loan it to the US government.
Now why doesn’t the US government tell the Fed to f&^% O&&%## and just create the money itself?
Anyone who thinks the owners of the Fed (aka the modern day descendants of the Elders of Zion) does not run the show — is incredibly naive….
Whoever or whatever entinty runs it, you can bet your doomsday stockpiles of scotch, that it certainly won’t be bothered by todays meager 350% levels of debt. Gail nicely explains in graphs how the increasing debt pie is shrinking the disposable income of consumers, that’s all logical and true. However, TPTB have many ways how to reshuffle various debts and therefore can kick the show for some more time. And as we know the show must go on..
Among other things maturities could be prolonged, debt servitude of lower classes might be repackaged in ways they can let more breathing space for continued consumption etc.
So, in my rough estimate there is at least 5-15yrs to delay real systemic shock till the ELM effect eruption, and after that 2-3decades more to keep in working order major infrustructure projects like the grid, long distance trade albeit at lower energy/consumption throughput via openly totalitarian societies.
Debt is simply not a issue for governments and banks and those chosen to receive credit. Binary bits being thrown about that represent microwatts in their c-mos RAM. the USA government debt is enough in 1 dollar bills stacked flat to reach the moon and back 4 times. That debt is miniscule compared to the 900 trillion in derivatives that the banks have created. In liu of the fact that debt instruments have been created that dwarf the value of everything on the planet concerns about debt does not seem valid to me. We are already at infinity. Why would two infinities matter?
That’s such a startling number! I come up with *only* a little more than 2.3 round trips (using $16.3 trillion debt and .0043 as thickness of bills).
It’s Official: The Baltic Dry Index Has Crashed To Its Lowest November Level In History
2015 has been an ‘odd’ year. Typically this time of year sees demand picking up amid holiday inventory stacking and measures of global trade such as The Baltic Dry Index rise from mid-summer to Thanksgiving. This year, it has not. In fact, it has plummeted as the world’s economic engines slow and reality under the covers of global stock markets suggests a massive deflationary wave (following a massive mal-investment boom). At a level of 631, this is the lowest cost for Baltic Dry Freight Index for this time of year in history.. and within a small drop of an all-time historical low.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/11/20151106_bdiy1_0.jpg
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-06/its-official-baltic-dry-index-has-crashed-its-lowest-november-level-history .
And the CEO of Maersk is saying as much as a man in his position can:
“We believe that global growth is slowing down,” he said in a phone interview. “Trade is currently significantly weaker than it normally would be under the growth forecasts we see.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-08/global-gdp-worse-than-official-forecasts-show-maersk-ceo-says
More reason to believe 2016 will be The Year of Living Dangerously.
Ha–Nils Andersen (Maersk CEO) was quoted in papers a couple years ago: “No tree grows to heaven, you know.” I put it in one of my email signature blocks.
622 today!
I fixed the link to the article–had an extra “w” at the end.
Yet the pot of long beach is continually backed up- cant unload the goods fast enough.
That’s a lot of marihuana…
Folks, the military is simply a branch of the government, which is why I didn’t mention it.
I do agree that governments and their militaries will be more powerful in the years ahead, while the influence of corporations is peaking now and will decline. Though, of course, we don’t know what structure these will take. Many governments could very well fail, and I fully expect civil war in the United States, for example.
Doesn’t mean I would give up a corporate gig to be a foot soldier. You still have to live in the present world, and being a soldier isn’t that much fun, despite what Hollywood portrays.
More symptoms of China’s economic sluggishness.
Exports fell by nearly 7%, marking the fourth-straight decline in dollar terms for the important sector of the world’s second-largest economy. Imports also dropped by a more than expected 19%, suggesting that internal demand in the People’s Republic remains soft.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-exports-slump-for-fourth-straight-month-2015-11-08
Doesn’t look good. The lower oil prices don’t seem to be leading to a lot more consumption on their part. Overall volume of imports was down 4% for the year.
@ Fast Eddy November 8, 2015 at 3:59 pm
Apparently we managed to survive the Toba super-eruption of prehistoric times with just a handful of survivors and managed to bounce back. Now I am not imagining we’ll see any “progress” after the “fall”, but humans are adaptable plus there will be a “lot” of junk left over from the industrial age they can salvage for quite a few centuries to come. After that gig’s ended though it’s all the way back to the “stone age” for whoever’s left. Spent fuel ponds and runaway global warming aside as the only real unknowns as mentioned. Cheers.
If we have wet bulb temperatures spreading from the equator both north and south, we don´t know whats going to happen to the golf stream. Constantly rising sea levels. Dying oceans. The small unknown of the Nuclears. And generally really bad, and really unpredictable weather. And all of the easy to get to resources spent, not including all of junk lying around that is broken and rusting that we have left behind.
Somehow all of that makes me think about walipinis, earth sheltered green houses in Chile, Argentina, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden.
Great article, Gail. You address efficiency, but only apply it at the power generation side of the equation. I was wondering how much low hanging fruit there may be on efficiency of consumption, if perhaps an extremely wasteful lifestyle to date could be made less-stupidly-wasteful and (at least for a time) lowering energy consumption could coincide with modestly-rising (1-2%) GDP growth, bucking the historical correlation?
I am doubtful that efficiency of consumption will be terribly helpful. For one thing, there has always been a financial incentive for energy efficient consumption. For another, there is the issue that any savings in one area tends to be spent in on something else. Also, the amount spent (even if inefficiently) helps make work for others. If one person has a boat, and takes it to a lake where it is used for recreation, this might be considered wasteful by some (especially if the vehicle towing it and the boat itself are powered by gasoline), but making the boat provides jobs for others. Also, without the boat, the person would have money to spend on something else–say driving to night clubs from time to time, or taking a vacation by airplane.
People can turn down the heat on their homes, but doing so rarely saves oil–it tends to save electricity (not made from oil) or natural gas. They again have more money to spend on other things.
So basically this blog’s core message can be summed up as this…
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ey1Z0VhAQdA?rel=0&w=560&h=315%5D
Think of TPTB as roughly divided up between
1) banks
2) governments
3) industrial corporations
A rough outline. Now, industrial corporations have done really well these past 40 years as they have been able to use debt to build up economies of scale, and sell a wide variety of products across the entire globe. This is over, finished. So if you concentrate on corporate profits as a measuring stick, you are missing the point.
The banks and governments live on. They are eternal, if you like, and only disrupted by violent overthrow or currency reset. But because of the very development of our systems, violent overthrow is near impossible. And if we have a currency reset, we will simply have another fiat currency to replace a failed one. On a long enough timeline they might lose control, but the question is how to get from point A to point B. It’s not going to be clean or easy, but it can be done.
I always thought the real PTB were the military . They have the best information system, and they have the big guns. In every economic collapse situation, in any country, who takes charge) Who is the last to fall? The military, always. Not the governments puppets, not the Bill Gates lookalikes, not even the Rockefelllers or the Windsors lookalikes.Many kings and bankers had been beheaded through history, and always by the guys with the big guns. But a general, let’s say, can only be killed by another general.
Bingo! What’s that quote about being ruled through the barrel of a gun? Monetary control brings the illusion of power only while there remains faith in the system. Once that dissapears what are you left with? Guns! And he who wields the bigger gun and has the balls to use it wins.
Today, polls in the US have concluded that 30% of the population would back a military coup. Interesting…
It’s no coincidence that TPTB are made up of military orders masquerading as corporations and religious institutions. It’s even in their names for heaven’s sake – the Sovereign MILITARY Order of Malta! SMOM or Knights of Malta along with other powerful orders such as The Society of Jesus (Jesuits), the Freemasons and the 13 ruling families, as they are known, constitute TPTB in my opinion. This means that we are literaly ruled over by entities that have, in one way or another, maintained their dominant position over centuries, possibly millenia. You have to ask yourself… how is it that a tiny minority of the human species is able to dominate the vast majority for so long and to such great effect. There are several reasons for this of which I’m sure you’re all aware – deception, manipulation, ruthlessness beyond your run-of-the-mill psychopathic tendencies, and an ability to plan ahead – to forge the future, so to speak. Add to this a level of secrecy that the rest of us can only begin to fathom and it becomes obvious that we will always be at a disadvantage when attempting to unravel the mysteries of this world.
One only has to observe the way uniforms and uniformity play such a huge role in the conditioning of the masses. Uniforms of all kinds have been shown to grant the wearer an inflated sense of authority. What sorcery is this? How can a mere change of “costume” make one human feel dominant over another? Of course, this goes back to tribal and even animal instincts where alpha males and females used posture, positioning (higher of the ground), brighter colors etc. to establish their dominant status. But why now? Why do we still have monarchies with all their regalia lording it over a fawning populace? Why do we still have young men giving their lives in combat in faraway places for a medal on their chest? Because it works, that’s why! These simple measures that now extend to our public education centers, the workplace and almost all areas of modern society are born of the essence of indoctrination – in other words, mind control. And I would suggest that we are all under a spell – an exceedingly high dose of mind control from the day we are born. There is no escaping it. The Elders (I call them the Elect but whatever…) have done their job well. They had the help of their “magicians”, their high priests, the best psychologists and machievelian manipulators.
That said, there are those who say their time is up. That the Old World Order is in decline, nay collapse. Much like the natural limits that are talked about here, the Elders reached their peak some time ago and are now fighting amongst themselves over the remaining scraps as they near the edge of the proverbial cliff. The problem is that, even if they wanted to, they are entirely unable to reform, to buy more time, for them and for the rest of us that they have also doomed with their arrogant ways.
The meek shall inherit the Earth, Ea, Gaia, Terra, whatever her name shall be when all is done. To me, the meek are not some faux christian brood but the hunter gatherer tribes that lived gently on the Earth. Ever since we disovered farming, humanity lost it’s respect for the environment in which it lived. It could have been contained at that level but something went wrong. A deep religious respect for the gifts of nature suddenly tranformed into a righteous entitlement allowing that lead to the rape of the entire bioshpere. Ooops! indeed.
Still, despte the facts staring us in the face, I still cling to my hopium pipe. It’s in my nature. The Old World Order, it is said, may be hiding something up their sleeve. Something that you or I would not have a clue about. A last card to play in the game they have set up. The military especially are very good at keeping such secrets. The ultimate advantage, so to speak. A ruse that would catch your enemy so off guard as to render him catatonic. Could what is unfolding indeed be part of an elaborate ruse?
The writings of the most famous freemasons reveal evidence that such a ruse may be at play. They talk of three world wars and a collapse of their grand scheme leading to the sunsequent rising up of a New Order to replace the old – the phoenix rising from the ashes. Why do I think this may be the case? For all the debate about reaching limits, there are still plenty of resources and novel ways to use them. The population can be rapidly reduced – there are onvious plans in place for this. The economic system can be revamped relatively quickly, if not in the blink of an eye. There is some evidence that this may be the next card up their sleeve too. This scenario does not equate to BAU. This scenario – which I believe was the plan all along – would represent the phoenix from the flames or a butterfly from the chaotic environment of the crysalis. Entirely possible. Entirely doable. All the REAL controllers need to do is buy more time.
This place has absolutely lost it. Talk of these obscure “Elders” (who control the world) and reference to a book of fiction (debunked time and again) to back up claims of people in control of the demise (of life as we know it) then resurrection of the economy (for “The Elders”) and others convinced the “grand plan” (nothing else) is to print untold amounts of money to create hyper-inflation and reset so we can start again. As I said this place is fu**ed in the head.
I agree, I think people are giving those in charge far too much credit. If they can imagine it at all, these types are not trying to shore up the status quo because they are attempting to forestall a human extinction event, but for its own sake. Because therein lies the key to their status and wealth, plus it’s all they know. Fo f#cks sake, it’s what most people know, especially in the West. The destruction of the industrial age and the decimation of its bloated population will happen irrespectively once fossil fuels commence their final, inexorable decline and the control and command systems fall apart. Doesn’t matter what anyone does in the meantime, consciously or unconsciously. It’s just “make work”.
Consider this…
Let’s say I started a private company …. this company was given the rights to print the reserve currency of the world — the USD.
I decide how much gets printed — I decide who gets how much of what is printed — I get interest off of every dollar I loan out.
If a country (or corporation or person) pisses me off — as in it refuses to take orders from me — I can destroy that country by driving their interest payments on their bonds higher and bankrupting them — and collapsing their economy….
I would almost never have to do this of course — the threat would be sufficient.
The obvious question here is who in their right mind would give me this power? Why would the US government not print its own currency — and use the interest payments to fund things like hospitals and schools….
It is absolutely insane to allocate these rights to me – no?
So then why do this?
Oh and btw…. think I will call my company the Federal Reserve – the shareholders will include the largest banks on the planet.
Now that you have considered that — I suggest you go back and read the Protocols…. because the final Protocols explain in great detail how to enact the structure that I have outlined above.
They also outline in great detail how to gain control of the MSM — and leverage this to control the global narrative as well as to ensure that the Elders are never identified as being the men behind the curtain.
https://www.rt.com/usa/223895-jim-clancy-cnn-leaves/
http://deadline.com/2010/10/cnns-rick-sanchez-gets-the-boot-after-anti-jon-stewart-and-anti-jew-rant-71757/
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2013/06/12/stifling-student-protest-northeastern-university/H7k5rk8VCsPlpWaJVS7eFI/story.html
You can either read the document in its entirety and make your own decision — or you can not read it — and simply spew more MSM bullshit that you’ve been force fed by the people who control the MSM who have a very strong interest in ensuring that the masses of unthinking idiots on this planet absolutely never identify them …..
Because if the masses of idiots became aware that their cherished democracies and constitutions were a bogus — that their elected reps defer to the owners of the Fed on all really important decisions… the pitchforks would come out….
I find it useful to include some quotations to back up an assertion … be sure to turn the Cognitive Dissonance dial to maximum before reading this ….. facts can be harmful to one’s mental health if one is not open to new ideas….
“I care not what puppet is placed on the throne of England to rule the Empire, … The man that controls Britain’s money supply controls the British Empire. And I control the money supply.” Nathan Rothschild
“Once a nation parts with the control of its currency and credit, it matters not who makes the nation’s laws. … Until the control of the issue of currency and credit is restored to government and recognized as its most sacred responsibility, all talk of the sovereignty of parliament and of democracy is idle and futile.” — Mackenzie King, Canadian Prime Minister 1935-1948.
“I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated Governments in the civilized world no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men.” – Woodrow Wilson, after signing the Federal Reserve into existence
“Some of the biggest men in the United States, in the field of commerce and manufacture, are afraid of somebody, are afraid of something. They know that there is a power somewhere so organized, so subtle, so watchful, so interlocked, so complete, so pervasive that they had better not speak above their breath when they speak in condemnation of it.” ― Woodrow Wilson
The mass of idiots are just that. No matter what anyone says all it takes it the president with his flag lapel pin to say fear not all is well. The government schools have produced totally conditioned slaves.
The process of how to reduce the masses to unthinking idiots is explained in great details in the Protocols…
Again — the plan has been executed brilliantly….
You are absolutely right. +++++
Some people have obviously never ventured off the beaten track of mainstream knowledge. Pity. Truth lies in the writings of the secret societies. Everything esle is twaddle for simple minds.
Then we have this — straight from the horse’s mouth:
“I care not what puppet is placed on the throne of England to rule the Empire, … The man that controls Britain’s money supply controls the British Empire. And I control the money supply.” Nathan Rothschild
There you have it — the king banker stating exactly what I am saying.
Yet — the vast majority of sheeple would say no — the owners of the Fed do not control the world… it’s not possible …
Of course it is possible — it is actually pretty easy — IF you have the right to print the reserve currency.
Even more so if you control the MSM — because if you control the MSM you can then squash anyone who tries to point out that you run the show and that democracy is a charade…. a charade that you pushed on the world — because it deflects the mob from targeting you when they get angry….
“Bingo! What’s that quote about being ruled through the barrel of a gun?”
You cannot fight a war with finance… See Napoleonic Wars https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rothschild_family#The_Napoleonic_Wars
Want to keep the generals in line?
Easy — promise them high paying jobs when they retire…. money talks… and the company that gets to print money will use it to get its way…..
Report: 70 Percent Of Retired Generals Took Jobs With Defense Contractors Or Consultants
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/19/defense-contractors-generals_n_2160771.html
From the Pentagon to the private sector: In large numbers, and with few rules, retiring generals are taking lucrative defense-firm jobs
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2010/12/26/defense_firms_lure_retired_generals/
And if you are getting paid big time — whether you are a general or a banker — why rock the boat?
Only a moron rocks the boat — because then you don’t get paid — and if you really rock the boat… you will be ruined — as this fool found out https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Webb
Money makes the world go around… the world go around…… always has… and will — up until the point the world collapses due to the end of cheap energy — then money will be confetti for the Parade of Death that marches around the world…
And those men who own the company that has the right to print the reserve currency? Well — there won’t be a reserve currency — so they will suffer and die along with the rest of us…
And that is why they are doing whatever possible to extend their reign for as long as possible…
A new definition of money: “confetti for the Parade of Death”.
Very true, since it only helps destroying our real capital faster.
You cannot fight a war with finance — should read… without finance….
Interesting tale about Gary Webb.
Michael Ruppert also fits in that fool category and so too committed suicide.
http://www.theverge.com/2014/7/22/5881501/the-unbelievable-life-and-death-of-michael-c-ruppert
Pretty much exposed the same about the government CIA drug dealings.
By the second Sunday of April this year, Michael C. Ruppert was broke. The 63-year-old cop-turned-writer and firebrand gained fame by starring in Collapse, a 2009 documentary in which he predicts society’s destruction. Publicity from the film was great — he went on a countrywide promotional tour — but compensation had fizzled out. By April, he was receiving just a couple hundred dollars per month in royalties to supplement his meager Social Security checks.
In an effort to simplify his life, Ruppert had gradually sold, tossed out, or given away nearly all of his possessions, which included an arsenal of guns, countless books, and government documents. All that remained was a collection of sentimental knickknacks, along with clothes appropriate for a man in his 60s: button-up shirts, dark-colored slacks, a few flannels, a couple of L.L. Bean jackets, and a gray cowboy hat. Everything he owned fit into his burgundy 2000 Lincoln Continental.
There is a connection to Webb
Then, Ruppert read a story that would change his life. It was a groundbreaking investigative report — a series of articles connecting the CIA to Nicaraguan drug runners. Published in August 1996 in the San Jose Mercury News, Gary Webb’s three-part series, “Dark Alliance,” provided compelling evidence that drug traffickers peddled cocaine on Los Angeles streets to fund CIA-supported Contras embroiled in a Nicaraguan civil war. The series’ assertions — that CIA officials aligned themselves with criminals and “helped spark a crack explosion in urban America” — inspired protests in black communities nationwide.
The uproar over “Dark Alliance” was also an opportunity for Ruppert to have his suspicions heard. In November 1996, CIA director John M. Deutch agreed to address the allegations in Webb’s series during a town hall meeting at a high school in South Los Angeles. The interaction was broadcast by C-SPAN, and Ruppert seized the opportunity to step into the spotlight.
Ruppert confronted CIA Director Deutsch, who lost his job afterwards
“I am a former Los Angeles police narcotics detective, and I worked South-Central Los Angeles,” Ruppert said into a microphone during the Q&A session in front of the jam-packed, audibly agitated, mostly African-American crowd. In the video — now legendary among Ruppert’s fans — Ruppert looks like a high-school social studies teacher, with combed-over gray hair, a manicured mustache, and wire-rimmed glasses. “I will tell you, Director Deutch,” Ruppert said, “emphatically and without equivocation that the agency has dealt drugs throughout this country for a long time.
And Ruppert further dug his grave with the movie Collapse
Ruppert told Smith he’d become convinced that the places we live, the cars we drive, the products we buy, the food we consume — the habits that shape industrial human civilization — were leading to our demise. Smith was intrigued. The resulting interviews in late March and early April 2009 became Collapse, a dark, ominous documentary. The film compiled some of the most intriguing facts Ruppert had amassed during his career, along with some of his most dire predictions. Among them: the imminent end of human industrial civilization. Ruppert made “Michael Moore sound like Mr. Rogers,” said one reviewer.
And the eerie part is he sounds a lot like our Fast Eddie at the end of his life
“He said, ‘I gotta come clean with you about something,’” she remembered. “He told me he was terrified of the state of the world and that he felt like all kinds of people were coming to him for answers and that he didn’t have any. And that he just wanted to let me know where his head was at. Then we talked a little bit more. He talked about near-term extinction and that he felt like things were not headed in a happy direction. He was like, ‘What’s the point?’
The point is without these fools we would be in deep poo poo
“At some point we must draw a line across the ground of our home and our being, drive a spear into the land and say to the bulldozers, earthmovers, government and corporations, “thus far and no further.” If we do not, we shall later feel, instead of pride, the regret of Thoreau, that good but overly-bookish man, who wrote, near the end of his life, “If I repent of anything it is likely to be my good behavior.”
– Edward Abbey
Personally, I am through forever with investigative journalism and public lecturing. I am leaving public life. It is my hope that by continuing to repeat this sincere position that many of the inexplicable difficulties which have dominated my life over the past months will ease. It is time to move on. I spent twenty-seven years as a dedicated public activist and that is something which I am no longer able or inclined to do. The price was ultimately too great
Another fool Michael Ruppert
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Ruppert
The intentions of such men are no doubt good ….
However they do not understand the implications of getting what they want…
The economy either grows — or it collapses into a primitive state …. there are no half measures where still get to have a bit of electricity … a grocery store…. maybe a simple cheap car…
Nope. It is all or nothing….
The bulldozers are most definitely going to stop if this continues…
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/10/CAT%202.jpg
When that happens … the air will be clean (except for the massive radiation…) …. the skies will be brilliant blue ….
And the grocery stores will be empty.
Yes, in general, I agree with everything you said.
But this may come as a surprise to you. Not all men are driven by monetary gain. And they are certainly not morons – far from it. And if they can avoid assasination there is much good they can do to pave the way for others. So, despite outward appearances, individuals in high places can act entirely selflessly to further a cause for good.
It seems you’ve made up your mind possibly years before the fat lady actually utters her first note. I can’t do that. I will seek a glimmer of hope to the bitter end. Even if it’s just a reprieve or a long grind on the way down to some new level. I want as many people to survive as possible. That’s just my nature.
“Not all men are driven by monetary gain.”
Yes, not all men are alpha males — but those that are beat the others to a pulp and rule the roost.
Always.
I would even argue that in a Koombaya Kommunity alpha males will emerge…. because even slightly assertive males will become dominant when there is a vacuum of very aggressive males…
Look at all the Kommunes that have been started – and failed — they fail because people are not docile…. they end up fighting amongst each other….
If you murdered all people over 6 ft tall from the planet — a 5’11” male who had never thought to play basketball …. would suddenly become a candidate for a $10 million dollar/year contract as the new starting centre for the LA Lakers….
FE is dedicated to his dystopian universe and you will not change him.
You are aware that Gail’s posts are pretty much in line with mine in terms of the outcome.
So perhaps you have come to the wrong place?
Anyone who thinks that the end of oil is going to be anything but a hellish nightmare is living in a delusional state…
You can make up all the fairy tales you like — you can ignore the facts — but that will not change the outcome.
Here’s a little experiment you can try that will give you a whiff of what it will be like to live in a world without being able to flick a switch and get light, fresh food, heat, AC, cooked food, pumped clean water etc….
On Friday go to your power box and pull the switch turning off the mains power – do not turn it back on until Monday. Put your car keys in a drawer and don’t touch them until Monday.
Then on Monday come back and tell us how that was.
If you really want to test your post-collapse mettle …. try this for a week – or better still a month.
This of course will be ‘Collapse Lite’ — nothing anywhere near the real deal…. there will still be police — hospitals — nobody will be trying to kill you to steal the food in your cupboard….
Yet it will still be useful — because you will get a sense of what its like to live in a world without energy.
“even slightly assertive males will become dominant when there is a vacuum of very aggressive males”
In “A Primate’s Memoir” Robert Sapolsky tells a story about baboons that allows the possibility of a different outcome. In a baboon community where alfa males were decimated by TB, the survivors (old, emasculated males, females and kids) began to behave nicely and politely, and every alfa male who arrived from outside, was teached the bland ways of that community. And the same with the male kids. So, if baboons can do it, why couldn’t we? Then, we just need to exterminate the psychopats!
After all, humans are also the product of culture and indoctrination. And in the first world countries humans have been indoctrinated to abhor violence for at least the last three or four generations. No wonder that the majority of males today would turn veggies if they had to kill a chicken. True, violence in movies seem to be very cool, but in reality you need to have a strong stomach to bear all the goriness that real violence involves.
In that sense, meekness is now part of human “nature”.
Then, I don’t believe we can cooperate peacefully in a post-BAU world. But I don’t believe either in a total war of all against all, because that is probably not in our “nature” anymore. We are too soft and too fat for gung-ho activities.
But then, maybe you are right. Who knows? Those who live will see.
If you read history — any community that tried that — was overrun by another ….
Kindness is perceived as weakness — there will always be someone who will take … particularly when overpopulation puts pressure on local resources…
Even a docile tribe when faced with such pressures will resort to violence — if they don’t they will be wiped out.
You either compete — or you end up in the dust bin….
The beginning of one of Jared Diamond’s book (Guns Germs Steel if I recall) begins with a true tale of a pacifist tribe being overrun and every last member being clubbed to death … he found the busted piles of bones as evidence…
If anything, this dynamic is going to be even more in evidence post collapse — because 7.4 billion people are going to be fighting over next to zero food available
“So perhaps you have come to the wrong place?” No, bub, I get a lot out of this site, including from some of your posts. I just happen to think you project much of the pathology that you claim is going to overtake us in short order. Gail is thoughtful when people disagree with her; you are just offensive.
When faced with Koombaya illogical wishful thinking bullshit — you can bet your bottom dollar I will respond with extreme vitriol…
Think of it as payback for the offensive comments one receives when posting on other sites where the participants are overwhelming fools who attack anyone who dares bust their bullshit bubbles.
“any community that tried that — was overrun by another”
A perfectly agree with this statement. Beyond a certain level of community organization (clan, horde, state), of course pacifism doesn’t work, and the history prove it. But post-collapse, in the fast chaotic scenario you portray, I think there is little chance that dominant males can reach the necessary level of coordination to form a coherent rulling horde. Gangs, yes, but not overpowering hordes a la Gengis Khan. For this you need plenty of time and social stability.
And the Baconian scenario of war of all against all, it’s just fiction. Never happened except in movies. We are social, we evolve to form teams, to cooperate agains external menaces, not to behave like gladiators in a arena, with the “winner takes it all” spirit.So, I believe a well defended community have all the chances to survive against scattered, ragged and poorly armed loiters (and that would be the case in my country, where almost anybody has fire-arms).
Besides, there’s the problem I mentioned: the majority of males today (alpha, beta or omega) can’t run even half a mile. In short, they are not fit for the joys of plunder and butchery. They would have fire guns, you’ll say, so they don’t need to be fast runners. That is true in USA, but not in Europe (or at least in Portugal).
Cheers!
“So, I believe a well defended community have all the chances to survive against scattered, ragged and poorly armed loiters”
Who says they will be defending against ragged poorly armed loiterers?
I would expect they would be defending against breakaway military units — armed, trained, dangerous….
Forget the alpha male bankers…. the alpha males in these military units will run the show when they defeat the farming communities who won’t have a chance of hell…
Then we will get back to the good ol days when well-organized tribes (communities) fought against other well organized tribes (communities) with the main goal being to take territory to grow food as their populations expand…
Same as it ever was….
Point taken. All wars are bankers wars.
And…
“War is a racket.” — United States Marine Corps Major General and two time Medal of Honor recipient Smedley D. Butler.
The moral of the story…
Unless you are a Vlad Putin type… and decide to fight against the empire .. because you want to be the new emperor….
Then there is no point is opposing the empire….
Best to work out how you can get paid by the empire… work out how you can kiss the ring so that you don’t miss out on the rewards of empire….
I like your quote,”To me, the meek are not some faux christian brood but the hunter gatherer tribes that lived gently on the Earth. Ever since we discovered farming, humanity lost it’s respect for the environment in which it lived.”
Thanks! I really wish we could follow this philosophy more closely.
I agree with Gail–I think this observation about the impact of the neolithic revolution is a core piece of the picture. Reminds me of Eisler’s Chalice and the Blade. But remember, hunter gatherer cultures often had some form of slavery and probably other behaviors we would consider highly unpleasant (not “Koombaya” as FE would say).
I wish there was a way to combine aspects of that culture with some of the benefits of our current one, like high tech science and medicine. And maybe less of the paranoid psychopathy FE and others believe is so universal in governance of our social structures.
JMS,
I´m not so sure about the military. The military depends on petrol, and most countries only have 90 or so days of emergency reserves. Without tanks, ships, helicopters, trucks, fighters etc. the military are pinned down, not able to move. That would mean that in SHTF, large areas will be controlled by those who have converted all terrain vehicles (with all the vehicles as roadblocks, I imagine roads to be pretty much useless) to run on ethanol or biogas, and have access to large quantities of ethanol and/ or biogas.
I would imagine a bunch of guys with ATV:s, a few DIY bowling ball cannons, some DIY explosives/ napalm could easily keep a general or two, who have zero fuel, in check, if they wanted to.
I would imagine, that a bunch of guys who have practical skills in chemistry and engineering can pretty much drive circles around any general in a SHTF-situation. Therefore, if farmers can protect themselves, from would be feudal military lords, this means the military will run out of food eventually. So, as long as the farmers can get access to chemistry and engineering knowhow, we will not be going back to a feudal situation.
I also don’t believe we will revert feudalism for two reasons. History doesn’t run backwards, so other arrangements will arise in the wake of the end of industrialism and feudalism was a complex social system relying on large compact groups to run the show. These groups will just not be around as what humans remain once the die-off has run its course will be in the order of just a few million and scattered about various locations.
I forgot to mention that feudal societies were also highly organised and stable, relying on the concepts of duty and fealty or give and take from lord to servant and vice versa. It wasn’t all one way as some here have described it. However, during the die-off phase we will have disorganisation, competition for remaining easily obtainable resources and altogether general chaos, which will leave little opportunity for such a complex social arrangement to form.
I tend to agree with you. It would be very difficult for feudalism to come back again.
Concerning this I recall something I read about the black death. The black death entered europe in the mid 14th century and it killed about half the population. The new europe that emerged later on was a lot wealthier and freer since the feudal power structures was hit hard by the black death. Hence, this rebooting may have had some good effects.
One impact the plague had was that it put more power — and higher wages – into the hands of the workers….
Because so many had died …. there were fewer workers left alive … so they were able to command better working conditions and salaries….
It wasn’t just the feudal power structure that was hit hard by the black death; there was a lot more arable land per person. Thus, farmers could have bigger farms, and thus earn more, in terms of food they could produce. They were truly wealthier. They could afford more goods. Governments could tax more, and still leave their population well off.
If only we could wind back to simpler times — when civilization was not high tech and reliant on global supply chains… when energy came from trees … (or slaves)… when there were no spent fuel ponds… when we didn’t farm with chemicals….
When a mega pandemic like the Black Death could cull huge chunks of people — allowing us to just reset the system — and start over a again… with a better and brighter future ahead….
I agree that even the military are hooked on BAU, but not so much as the bankers, the CEOs and the governments. Besides, they have the advantage of knowing EXACTLY what’s going on, i.e, they have the advantage of foreknowledge. And that, plus guns, plus chains of command, plus access to solid bunkers, plus confiscating power, etc, etc, is surely a trump in a transition period. But of course they can’t maintain any sort of BAU. I’m just saying they have the means to ride the wave of descent (or the wave of chaos) much better than me, you and anybody else. I’m sure they are fully aware that BAU is dead, that they are preppering for what is coming, and that they know the ultimate power is theirs, not the bankers nor the kings.
Can you imagine the elite and military scuttling to their underground bases and tearing each other apart. Even relatively “normal” people tend not to keep it together in control situations…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanford_prison_experiment
US strategic oil reserve is 700 million barrels of oil.
Assuming they can keep the refineries operational — then they will be able to impose martial law for as long as that oil holds up…
I expect the military men to overthrow the Elders — the Elders will have nothing to offer post collapse —- they are experts in overseeing BAU and all its systems including finance…. they are able to pay the military men …. but post collapse there will be no BAU — no money — no cushy post retirement jobs on offer…
The door will hit the Elders in the ass as they exit….
Four years ago the top two graduates of West Point (army college) were Jewish women. Sure the military will save us. I will noot be holding my breathe.
I wouldn’t mind being alive to see that.
There is a level of schadenfreude in seeing emperors dethroned… in this case though the victory will be Pyrric given we get flushed down the toilet along with them…
One thing that I think most people will find disappointing is that when all of this plays out …. communications will halt… no internet … no teevee… no newspapers….
So we’ll no have any idea what is transpiring around the world once the power goes off….
We’ll go from ‘always on’ — to complete off — forever.
Funny how we take so many things for granted.
You’re right. In this scenario, even the most powerful military grinds to a halt and everyone involved joins the rank of scavenger along with the rest of the survivors. Quite the level playing field I should imagine.
The most important asset to carry over would be knowledge. And I’m not sure that would fare too well either. Most people in the west wouldn’t know where to start without being able to boot up their laptop to look up “how to make a sword.”
Colleges need to introduce a new course:
Introduction to Sword Making
Perhaps offer a double major that includes Making Chainmail 101
Cancel the football programme and introduce Sword Fighting….
LOL!
Real inflation happens by wage – price -spiral. and real credit-money what is mirrored by collateral. Faith in currency is still existing. People are believing in dept to be paid back.
You are talking about hyperinflation and producing counterfeit what nobody will accept sooner or later because it is just paper. Faith we will have been gone than. Barter only!
The final of deflation is hyperinflation. Inflation has happend many decades now.
Saludos
el mar
“The final of deflation is hyperinflation.”
That makes sense. When the deflationary death spiral hits… and the economy is crashing into shambles… money will have little or no value….
https://keripeardon.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/somali_wheelbarrow.jpg
Right on, guys…yep too bad Bernanke and company did not actually print all those trillions as paper bills. They would make fine toilet tissue, and as you probably have seen has significantly shrunk in size in the last few years, along with coffee amounts, salad dressing, a pound of bacon, mayo and just about everything else…no inflation BS
Banks and governments depends on the real producers of the economy–the people (workers) and the industrial corporations. IF these stop producing, both the banks and governments fall flat.
Hello,
what do you (Gail & readers) think of abiotic oil ?
I’m reading various articles on the subject and cannot conclude.
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/011205_no_free_pt2.shtml
http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/266424
http://www.principia-scientific.org/russians-nasa-discredit-fossil-fuel-theory-demise-of-junk-co2-science.html
I tend to think that oil is organic but one thing bother me, it don’t fit at all with the conventional theory : if we have found hydrocarbon lakes on Titan Saturn’s moon it means that fossil fuel IS abiotic (and maybe contaminated later by baterias). Don’t you think ?
It’s an important question regarding the fact that oil is finite or not …
What do I think?
In all honesty — I think it is crazy talk
I don’t care if it’s crazy. Those who dismiss abiotic oil theory don’t speak about hydrocarbon on Titan (at least in what I have read) … and I’m searching for answers.
You asked… I answered…
Right now I have found that on a forum :
“The lakes of hydrocarbons on Titan are simple molecules like ethane, IIRC, nothing as complex as the constituents of crude.”
Is your abiotic statement referring that oil fields will never deplete?
yes, if oil is produced by the earth itself, then, it could (if the rythm is sufficient) replete . Some proponent of abiotic theory pretend that’s the reason we didn’t reach peak oil as predicted … and we never will …
There’s no evidence that oil can regenerate on time scales that would remotely affect the outcome of peak oil.
yoananda,
First, oil’s hydrocarbons, molecular weights, and other organic compositions aside, because is not relevant to the largest issue we are trying to get to the bottom here.
Second, my first job: Zapata Marine Service, in Brazil.
a) There are evidence, that I can find, that oil fields refills itself.
b) Peak CONVENTIONAL oil already happened. Basically, what we’re seeing is enhanced recovery (wheels injections) plus UNCONVENTIONAL oil (tar sands and shale).
The world will never run out of oil. Humanity will run out of alternatives in how to extract it.
Diminishing Return:
If you visit Venango County, Pennsylvania, we will find the birth of the US oil industry. To this day, they still pumping oil out of it.
Can you tell how many barrels of oil it’s pumped?
40 barrels…………A YEAR!
http://www.roadsideamerica.com/story/15765
Or you could make your own using bacteria, dirty water and sunshine as these guys are doing…
http://www.jouleunlimited.com/
I know someone doing it, but with algae.
Time will tell if, and how well it will work.
Nonsense. It certainly is not being produced at the rate we need, in a way that we can cheaply gather it. Even if they could prove it exists, it is not helpful.
How oil is made is not the point. The issue is how cheaply and quickly it can be extracted. We need lots of it, at a price of $20 per barrel or less. I don’t think I have heard of any abiotic oil advocates claiming that there is a lot of abiotic oil that can be extracted for $20 barrel.
I suppose oil does replenish itself…. the problem is that it took billions of years to create all the oil that we have burned up in less than 200 years…
“Somehow, I find it hard to believe that the “big bang” occurred on its own, and the laws of physics were put together on their own, and that the all of the biological structures came to be, without some divine oversight of the whole evolutionary process.”
The problem is believing that if there’s a conscious being (just like us!) who is omnipotent, than it leads humans to think that this being condones everything that they do as a group. Believing in God, makes most humans consider themselves the only important lifeform in existance. This is COMPLETELY divorced from reality, but this point-of-view, is featured predominantly in the Bible. The Bible is thoroughly pro-civilization and pro-growth “go forth and multiply” and denies that God would subject humans to ecological limits, with parables like “The Feeding of the 5,000” by Jesus. The Bible contains grains of truth, such as the first humans being better off in the Garden of Eden, which is REALLY a hunter-gathering lifestyle, when you think about it. HOWEVER. God didn’t force humans to leave Eden because they got smart. Humans did that all on their own. Too many believers look down on non-civilized human cultures that ironically resemble a hunter gathering lifestyle similar to that in Eden. There’s also the line about how humans speaking in multiple tongues is “bad” because we all started off with one language. To me, that is condoning the kind of centralization that leads humans towards unsustainable activities such as civilization. Believing in God, practicing the ten commandments will do little for humans going forward because religious faith has done little to keep human ambition down and human ambition is what is going to drive humans into extinction.
At the same time, I find a lot of religious views to be pretty silly. But I can see that there is a real need to keep human population down, so fighting over different religious views may be “built into” the current system of differing religious views–it is a “feature” of the current system, not a “bug.” The only religion that would be useful, imo, after this civilization collapses is one that is purely reactive to civilization. That would rule out most of the dominant religions since the Middle Ages, all of them monotheistic.
Your comments on religion leads me to believe that It doesn’t matter if It doesn’t matter if God exists or not, just like it doesn’t matter whether materialism is sustainable or not. What matters is humans need to be able to control the behavior of other humans. That’s what all human social behavior is all about and someone will ALWAYS take it to an irrational extreme because that is what humans DO when they believe in something.
On population reduction, you may want to look at the greatest causes of death per year globally…
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs310/en/index2.html
War or any other such costly and labaorious scheme comes way down the list when it comes to ways in which to kill large numbers of people. Even commincable diseases are tricky to implement or give free reign because those pesky humans find ways to circumvent the spread. By far, the best way to eliminate a large number of “useless eaters” is to make the production and selling of tobacco legal. The same chemical conglomerates that produce doctored tobacco weed can substitute real food with artificial alternatives that clog arteries and reduce sperm count. You can also substitute real preventative health knowledge and wisdom with Rockefeller style “medicine” and take a few more lives there. You can contaminate the water supply and routine vaccines with sterilization agents.
You can also unleash the dogs of war occasionaly but compared to the more systematic approaches, the death yield is glaringly poor.
On the other hand, the spectacle of heavily financed global conflict does put the fear of God into every man, woman and child on the planet so it serves this purpose well. And if the world does decend into this level of organised chaos once more you can be assured that famine and pestilence follow in short order to satisfy the most biblical of prophesies.
Fossil fuels have changed a lot of things. Back before fossil fuels, I am sure that the distribution of causes of death was very different. War also amounted to a bigger percentage of total deaths.
If someone holds a religious belief which is ‘irrational’ but as a result they treat others decently ‘as a brother or sister’, in the name of Jesus , or Mohammed, or Allah, or whatever, then all is well and good.
I knew a very pious muslim – a brilliant doctor – who was in may ways personally revolted by his patients, (over-weight, stupid, demanding, etc) but who told me that he considered that Allah had called him to heal the sick, and he would therefore do his very best for everyone.
Equally, the ‘rational’ atheist who considers someone to be a ‘class enemy’ and to be eliminated without any emotion -see Communism, Anarchism, Nazism, in the 20th century – is just as frightening in my book as any crazed religious fundamentalist……
Right Xabier,
I personally consider religions as a tool, a mean for individuals to behave accordingly to guidelines (as well as for some to acheive spiritual/psychological goals), and -much more- for the elites to control the masses (in both peace and war times).
As much we don’t need religion to feel empathy (we’re pre-wired for that, see mirror-neurons), we don’t need it either to wage war or enslave foreign peoples. Religion simply makes things simpler, probably because it’s more convenient to hide behind a mask and externalize one’s responsibility, especially in unpleasant cases. If it’s God’s will, then there’s no possible discussion.
How does one human take control over another human, without the claim that somehow “God is directing the action”? It certainly makes the process easier, if it is not essential.
Psychopathy does not rely on religion.
If people have a problem with something like a Big Bang creating the universe….
Wouldn’t it be at least as incredible if an omnipotent entity was created out of nothing?
Sometimes nothing is a cool hand
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zDYyg0QskRo
Hmmm… wrong video — try again:
Fast, one thing for certain there IS a Cosmic Jester, and George Carlin fits the bill.
The Bible contains a lot of stories and myths handed down from generation to generation. They need a lot of interpretation–what are you supposed to learn from them? The point is not necessarily the point that first jumps out at you.
As I indicated before, all religions seem to be a way of handing down what people have learned about how to best succeed on earth. These things change and vary. In some times and place, keeping population up ( or at least providing offspring to care for elderly parents) was an issue. Then, “Be fruitful and multiply was the right advice.” Other religions demanded sacrifices of first-born children, as a way of keeping the population down.
A lot of what any religion is about is how to live now, on this earth. Some people have missed this point.
For some strange reason early mosks pointed towards Petra and not Mecca. Like right after Muhammed flew the winged horse to the Temple Mount they didn´t know which town he came from. Looks a lot like the Qurans origin story is much the same as the old testaments (completely made up in the babylonian captivity), new testament (Matthews gospel which it is largely based on, was probably written or at least commented by Josephus, probably sponsored by the Roman Vespanian emperors) and the buddhist add ons to the four noble truths and the eightfold path, stories told and retold, each generation putting some new spin on them.
As far as historians can accurately discern, religions as we know them are completely made up. Might be more reasonable not to have winged horses in SHTF. All imaginary friends and wishful thinking probably isn´t the best way for people to adapt to completely new circumstances. Just saying, I think we´ll be needing our wits about us, not stamped out by imaginery friends and dogmas.
But since the human species is able to believe anything (that we have proved with our silly religions), there will no doubt, if something survives SHTF, be a new religion written by the elites of that day, at that time.
I am with George — it makes total sense to worship the sun:
Some thoughts on inflation and deflation…
The cost of most ‘stuff’ has been inflating — yet the price of commodities has been deflating… and meanwhile corporate profits are collapsing…
One would think that the opposite would be happening … profits should be thundering ahead…
I wonder if this can be explained by the fact that extraction costs for most resources are increasing as we go after the high hanging fruit…
Corporations need higher prices in order to turn a profit… but if the prices are too high the consumer cuts back and we get a deflationary death spiral…
Is the inflation we are seeing in stuff a balancing game i.e. increase prices but not quite enough to blow up the market?
So, three to five years until international trade falters and the grid is down in most countries?
If the economy must grow, or die. But we have money printing ´til infinity. These two forces makes this Mother of all Collapses delayed as much as possible? Meanwhile a million more refugees there, a week of closed stock markets here, a failed national economy one year, unemployment going through the roof, three more failed national economies the next year, and so on, and so forth. Ever escalating, all the time building more momentum, building more debt, printing money to a deluge. Even with a domino effect of big corporate bankruptcies, the powers that be will close the stock markets for a month, print money like crazy and try to stop the domino effect.
So, is it three to five years until currencies including IMF+BIS SDR:s become so volatile that international trade, with long delivery times, become impossible to predict the price of the product when it finally arrives in a shipping container, that international trade falters. And with that economies collapse, the grid comes down and the hasslehooey-times begin with ernest?
Massive amounts of money are being printed every single day of the week – the EU and Japan are leading the way…. who knows what other stimulus is being applied — we are not told.
Yet corporate profits are crashing (down 7.4% year on year) — commodity prices are collapsing … the layoffs and the bankruptcies are starting …
It appears to me that the stimulus is — as expected – no longer having much of an impact.
We are starting the deflationary death spiral.
Unless the central banks have another trick to roll out — and I doubt they do because money printing has always been the last act of desperate players — then I find it hard to imagine we make it past 2016 without the the SHTF in a big way.
FE,
I think we will se two more major phases from the central banks before grid down SHTF.
First negative interest rates from the central banks, in the euro-area, US and Japan. Today only Switzerland, Denmark and Sweden have negative interest rates. Negative interest rates will give a small temporary boost to those big ticket items Gail has been talking about (and therefore some corporate profits). This will result in financial advice like “take as much debt as you want, never pay it back, just take care of your interest payments, which will be very low” For instance, Swedes take very long mortgages, some, with no intention of ever paying back any of the principal.
And secondly the central banks of the central banks IMF and BIS, will be doing their QE by printing their Special Drawing Rights to failing economies. Keeping financial meltdowns compartmentalized as much as possible. Because both IMF and BIS have been taking their shares of the government bonds SWAP derivatives profits, I think both IMF and BIS have pretty large reserves they can play around with.
This winter, and the year 2016 won´t be very nice. For the millions who are laid off SHTF already begins. Foodstamps, social security, welfare states are diminished as much, and as fast as possible, everywhere. But I think the most of us will get to 2017 – 2018, with stock markets closed a week — two weeks — three weeks — a month at a time in different parts of the world.
The economy is a confidence game, and because the big masses of peoples simply will not accept a possibility of Collapse in their conscious minds, I think we will get to 2017 – 2018 before the house of cards goes down.
That sounds like a good plan…. we are in uncharted waters with this … difficult to say if such policies would have significant impact … and if they did — how long that would last…
The thing is…
When you start to push on a string — pushing harder generally doesn’t move the string …
FE,
Agreed.
The string doesn´t move, Collapse can not be avoided, only delayed by a few measly months.
At this point I guess we’ll take what we can get…. even a few more months…
FE,
There is one way in which your 2016 schedule might prove to be right..
Scenario: Derivatives Bubble
– Greece comes to a point where it can not, and will not, pay its debt interests.
– Greece declared insolvent, bankrupt, and is cut off from EU and all Greece debts principals are nullified (they refuse to pay).
– This leads to a failure in new bond issuance in Spain, Italy, Ireland, Japan etc. Investors demand higher interest rates in fear of a possibility of actually losing that money.
– Modest interest rates rises in Spain, Italy, Ireland, Japan etc.
– A second failure in new bond issuance in Spain, Italy, Ireland, Japan etc. Investors demand even higher interest rates, in fear of losing all of their money they invested in bonds.
– Interest rates soar globally.
– 300 trillion in derivatives interest rate SWAPs blow up. JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley implode.
– As the global financial transactions simply stops, so does the global economy.
– SHTF
I reckon the biggest risk would be one that the Elders have no power to control….
And that would be that corporate profits continue to slide…. they struggle to survive by slashing costs … laying off large numbers of workers…. which of course exacerbates the problem…
Eventually you get a tipping point as things spiral downwards ever more quickly — eventually leading to defaults taking down the financial system.
It won’t be possible to micro manage this because it will be too big…
This is what was happening in 08/09 — the response was macro — trillions of dollars of stimulus were thrown at it….
This time however I am doubtful we can get a repeat act… the stimulus continues to roar into the economy … yet it’s sinking…
Perhaps we can get one final gasp via some draconian policies… my fear is that if the central banks do something obviously absurd … the masses will begin to wake up to the fact that this is as good as it gets… and they will revolt and/or stop spending altogether….
You, Gail and others have been surprised that the elite have managed to keep things going as long as they have since 2008. Maybe they can keep things going even longer then most of us can imagine.
I still think the real collapse is a few years away but I can imagine that more and more people will really start to worry by 2019/2020 at the latest. At the moment how many people do you know are really talking about any of the issues discussed on here? I know hardly anyone that is worried in the slightest and think everything is fine.
National and personal debts are just going to keep piling up all over the world. No one government wants to be the first to admit there is a major problem and will just try and keep things running as smoothly as possible for as long as possible.
Van Kent
I tend to agree, for what it’s worth.
Negative interest rates, the gradual abolition of cash for all except the most minor transactions, and continued extension of credit to those who are really not worthy of it but who can conceivably just cover the interest payments.
The retrenchment in social security is the other major trend.
Germany was check-mated and in retreat, with defeat inevitable, by 1943, but kept on fighting hard until 1945 with one expedient after another.
As in war, so in economics……
Well said +10
It is possible you are right. By the way, did you see this article http://www.tickld.com/x/economicsexplained Your approaches remind me of this article.
Click through to the link to read the rest of the story.
🙂
There are a lot of things we don’t know for sure, but we can suspect. Money printing only works when the system as a whole is working well enough to make it work. It electricity is off, it likely won’t do much; it is not even clear it can be created.
We have the technology to automate most jobs, war fighting, security forces. So just need the 1%, the 5% retainer class and the machines.
That’s how I envisioned things playing out too. A plausible scenario, at least.
Until I came across this blog…
And that changed everything. It would still take some time to reach the level of robotics and AI that you suggest. I too used to believe in the automation of everything as the obvious outcome of current technological progress. Even without going into the obvious socioeconomic problems associated with machines doing all the work, I now somewhat understand the underlying and techno-dream crippling limits to growth that makes further globalised technological expansion near impossible.
The fact that everything required by a suitably positioned elite to create this technological buffer relies on globally aquired scarce resources and some semblance of economic BAU means that they wouldn’t be able to maintain control, supply, production at any rate nearing their needs. So no space-based lasers and EMP weapons, not even a fighter jet or two.
Einstein said that future wars would be fought with sticks and stones. Maybe he was right after all…
Yes, Einstein will be proved right.
But, The Planet of Apes will be proved wrong.
If that makes you feel better.
I’m not sure it makes me feel better… I would feel some sadness either way. I don’t hate the human species. I just think we could have done things a little better, used the available resources more wisely. Chosen to run a marathon instead of 100m dash…
But if we switch off our species bias for even a moment then the underlying natural patterns become more evident. A flower in the field germinates, grows to it’s maximum potential and at its peak, withers and dies. Every star of billions in a neighbouring galaxy goes through a similar process. Energy converts to matter and reverts back to whence it came. Natural Law at play. Why then should we be exempt?
And yet, look at the promise that our own species holds. Look at the plans being laid by our greatest minds – a future so bright you have to wear shades. Do none of these brilliant scientists and inventors understand the predicament that we now face? Do they know something that the rest of us don’t? Do some of them belong to secret societies that hold the belief that BAU lite is possible and they have been chosen to join the elite in some kind of utopian rapture event?
Who knows? All I can say is that if other species – let’s say squirrels – do eventually take the “top dog” position after we have long gone, what’s to say that nature won’t repeat itself yet again. After all, the underlying rules will apply to every organism that attempts to break them. No matter how advanced the squirrels become, how sophisticated their economic systems, their technology, they would come up against the same limits that we have. Or maybe they could be smarter than us? Would that alone make a difference?
In the grand scheme of things this would lead to a conclusion that there isn’t much purpose to anything. There is no evidence that any organism anywhere has ever made it to a Type III civilisation on the Kardashev scale. It’s pure speculative fantasy on our part. And as far as I know, there is no evidence of life on other planets although I think it would be safe to assume that the universe is in fact teeming with life. To think otherwise would mean that we had won the biggest lottery imaginable… and I’m not that lucky.
Back to energy. Energy can neither be created nor destroyed. That means that energy has always existed. It’s always there – a constant. It’s what we are. It’s what we’ve always been. We’re not going anywhere. We’re already here. If that’s any consolation.
What needed to happen was that we needed to continue living like hunter gatherers… once we got on the good ship Progress…. that was the beginning of the end….
Since there is no steady state of BAU — you either continue on the ship — or it sinks… (and we collapse back to a primitive state)
Unfortunately we’ve ruined our soils and creative mega death spent fuel ponds… when we sink we don’t revert to a primitive existence… we likely will go extinct…
If you think about all other animals on the planet — they don’t really progress (they do evolve very slowly over many years — but that is adaption rather than progress) — they don’t generally make use of tools…. they do little more than survive…
Progress is our downfall…
There was never any choice in the matter …. it’s not as if the caveman who harnessed fire was going to step back and say ‘better not do this because eventually it is going to destroy the species’
“Progress is Our Most Important Product”—General Electric Corporation
Natural selection was our problem, way back in the hunter-gatherer period. People tended to have more offspring than they needed to reproduce themselves. They also wanted to live as long as possible. When humans learned to control fire and use it to burn biomass, to cook food, boil water, and serve other useful purposes, it was possible to support a bigger population on the same amount of land. We gradually added to our abilities to produce a lot of food, and to overcome problems with predators. So we got on the good ship Progress very early.
There is no evidence that any civilization has made it to Type I.
“Einstein said that future wars would be fought with sticks and stones. Maybe he was right after all…”
Definitely
The all seducing power of the techno-dream might have some interesting side effects. I believe some people will simply refuse to live outside of it. They have to be dragged out kicking and screaming to the real world.
I believe that the refusal to abandon the techno-dream will be so severe, that a large portion of the urban population will simply “do nothing” for the first week or two in SHTF.
Then they get hungry, and the new reality starts to set in. But not without a severe case of PTSD.
Might be, that the readers of this blog will experience something like: “Am I the only one Zen around here” among all the disillusioned PTSD masses.
Here’s a sneak preview of what will happen:
Makes the “Walking Dead” look tame in comparison…
Picked up a book title “Hitler’s Prisons; Legal Terror in Nazi Germany” by a Nikolaus Wachsman (2004) Yale Press
Book focused a how the legal system was used as a tool of control and provide the Nazi rule a cover of legitimacy for police terror and exploitation of elements that were deemed undesirable.
In the United States today with the Patriot Act, Home Guard and surveillance, we are one step away from the same being implemented when times get tuff.
http://www.amazon.com/Hitlers-Prisons-Legal-Terror-Germany/dp/0300217293
State prisons played an indispensable part in the terror of the Third Reich, incarcerating many hundreds of thousands of men and women: political opponents, ‘racial aliens’ and many other social outsiders. For most of the Nazi era, these prisons held more inmates than SS concentration camps. This important book illuminates the previously unknown world of Nazi prisons and their victims, and the judicial and penal officials who built and operated this system of legal terror. Nikolaus Wachsmann describes the operation and function of legal terror in the Third Reich and brings Nazi prisons to life through the harrowing stories of individual inmates. Drawing on a vast array of archival materials, he traces the series of changes in prison policies and practice that led to racial abuse, brutal violence, slave labour, starvation and mass killings. Wachsmann demonstrates that ‘ordinary’ legal officials were ready collaborators who helped to turn courts and prisons into key components in the Nazi web of terror. He concludes with a discussion of the whitewash of the Nazi legal system in post-war West Germany. ‘One of the most important books to be published on Nazi Germany in many years’, Richard J. Evans, University of Cambridge ‘An outstanding piece of work – one of the best studies of the Third Reich to appear for a long time. No serious future work on the Nazi state will be able to bypass this book.’ Sir Ian Kershaw Nikolaus Wachsmann is lecturer in modern history at the University of Sheffield. He was born in Munich and has also taught history at the University of London and at Cambridge University where he was a research fellow. In 2001 he was jointly awarded the Fraenkel Prize in Contemporary History for his research on German prisons
It was a long step process for the US as well, lets jump over the 1913 Fed act and prior stuff, there was a clear distinctive change after the end WWII when the US security apparatus assimilated and employed lot of old nazi networks, now hoping using it against the USSR block. Few sponsored nasty coups around the world here and there in the 50s, but in the 60’s-70’s they were strong and psychotic enough in their ways they sponsored the wave of political assasinations, which crippled even any soft alternative inside the domestic US political apparatus. And continuity with Nixon boys just sealed it with the global petrodollar scheme. From here on again we have wave of international interventions both visible and in the shadows. Basically the US adopted the “nazi virus” culminating in Reichstag fire v2.0 2001, which was a braking point for launching visible domestic opression as well. Now with Obama-Kerry weakish actors and the wider Asians building their own monetary (and trade block) reserve system we are probably in the Gorbi years equivalent, and who will be the american Yeltsin-esque clown sending the US empire into the dustbin finally, Trump/Hillary or further down the road?
Exactly! The twin towers 9/11 crisis, the wars that have followed and terrorists fears have enabled a launch point for a totalitarian regime. It has appeared not as
But for all practically purposes it is already in place.
TPTB are using the same tactics as the German Hitlerite era without much meaningful resistance, other than some street protests.
If they desire, a staged domestic attack and economic crisis can easily have the citizens
pleading for any measures for order and security.
Of course, scapegoats will be selected to justify any undemocratic and military style court justice. I can hardly wait for the show to begin!
One might say that a parasite found a new host….
If the parasite kills the host it too dies. The parasite needs new blood to eat. Maybe China? I think Russia is inoculated from its recent experience 1900-1970.
Folks, take a breath. We know for absolute certain:
1) we have barely begun the decline; real decline begins shortly yes, but we have hardly even started it; forget your memories of 2001 or 2008, they are in the rear view mirror and now only useful as examples of what can happen
2) they will create currency; and when they are finished creating currency, they will create more; they will print and print and print all the way down the slide
Keep your eyes on the ball. Never, ever take your eyes off the fact that currency can be created out of nothing. If you miss that, you’ll get everything wrong, again and again. Our system cannot be reformed. They are simply going to create currency, that will be their response. Throw out any idea that you have that governments or banks are honest, trustworthy, or interested in the betterment of mankind.
The world of finance is not scientific. It does not operate according to the laws of the physical universe. That’s why every single breakdown in the history of our species, dating back thousands of years, is always accompanied by currency creation.
Pay close attention to the first sentence:
THE PERFECT STORM (see p. 58 onwards)
The economy is a surplus energy equation, not a monetary one, and growth in output (and in the global population) since the Industrial Revolution has resulted from the harnessing of ever-greater quantities of energy.
But the critical relationship between energy production and the energy cost of extraction is now deteriorating so rapidly that the economy as we have known it for more than two centuries is beginning to unravel.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/files/2013/01/Perfect-Storm-LR.pdf
Now let’s play a game — called What If…
What If Elon Musk loaded the !1% (for 500k each…) into solar powered Tesla space cars… and raced off to Mars…
What If … on your advice he brought along a few money printing machines… and a lot of paper…. because you informed him that in order to have prosperity, consumer goods, food… and plenty of energy … you need large amounts of money…
How do you see that working out?
Did I say currency creation creates prosperity, consumer goods, food, or energy? No, I didn’t say that. I never said that. Let me repeat to you, and everybody else reading this, that I fully understand that currency creation can do nothing of the sort. I fully understand that everything we see around us is the result of production in the physical economy.
But again, I’m talking about what they will do. Every single problem, every single breakdown from this point forward, will be met with currency creation. That is simply the way that it’s going to go down. 100% guaranteed. Every single currency in the world today, they will create more and more of it.
This process is in fact genetically wired in us. We are incapable of allowing currency to be finite and appreciate relative to the world of goods and services. Might as well wish to grow four eyes or a pair of wings.
What’s my point? My agenda is to convince everybody here that deflation is an impossibility, that it cannot happen. Deflation is as impossible as finding unlimited energy. Neither of these is in the equation, not now, not ever. If I’ve convinced just one of you then my posts are worth it. To those of you who are unconvinced, well, let’s see where we are 10, 20 years from now, and get back to me.
“Inflationary depression”. If you want a short way to express what is going to happen moving forward.
Stagflation. In economics, stagflation, a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation, is a situation in which the inflation rate is high, the economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high.
Exactly, people lost the sight of the ball, because they don’t connect the dots of why there has been recently so rapid inflation in debt instruments and securitization, art collectibles, estate properties etc. Simply, the whole TPTB administrative apparatus globally focused on primarily looting and secondary on preventing for a while the destruction of currency in the low level visible plane aka street level inflation, although this inflation is measurable and quite bad in aggregate for past decades already. But at some point, most likely after some short deflation/stagflation (living now) like period the dam will break loose and instruments like direct bail in of banks accounts, effective purchasing power of pensions and healthcare cut to almost 100% would be unleashed on the lower classes.
So, we ought to debate and think it through based on empirical evidence how this latter phase would evolve in timing and sequencing. Gail and FE argue for relatively fast one step collapse event, others me included try to point out this is somewhat ahistorical approach because this stuff always goes rather like a bumpy volatile ride of calmer plateaus and disruptive peaks. And as long as infrustructure and some energy is in place and maintained in hodge podge fashion, let say next 2-4decades, there will be likely organized some sort of new regime based on lower energy throughput, but with still existing int trade flows, currencies etc.
You many not have said it — but you implied in — and you continue to imply it:
“Every single problem, every single breakdown from this point forward, will be met with currency creation.”
I agree – they will continue down this path — but where we diverge is that I do not see how money printing can prop up the system for much longer.
I just dropped a post explaining this …. at some point … the money printing stops working … it fails to generate growth ….
We are at that point.
We grow — or we collapse. There is no soft landing… no step down….
There is a moment akin to this:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/.a/6a00d83451b31c69e2019103c29e77970c-pi
Followed by:
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03366/wile_3366650b.jpg
When the central banks run out of ammo — the hordes will scramble over the barriers and slit our throats…
http://blogs.ft.com/tech-blog/files/typepadimport/575537f1b5c0d2c54421bf9cc99a5fb3.jpg
Paul, when Dolph, myself or others refer to money printing, it’s never presented as an **equitable ** solution meant to provide the greatest “good”, or create a foundation for balanced aggregate activity. Rather, it is meant solely to facilitate continuity of government and the respective command and control systems necessary to maintain the security state.
That’s it; really, there’s nothing more to it. So, when you respond with charts, graphs and other statistical data & analyses in an attempt to disprove this assertion on a fundamental level, you are entirely missing the point.
Sometimes I think you’re just being obstinate, others I realize you might really not just get it. Here’s an easy thought exercise: map out where humanity needs to be in 100-200 years if it is to reach some kind of sustainable balance while maintaining/increasing scientific & technological research & development. For instance, it’s where I come up with global population of 500m @ a 95% reduction in consumption for the 98%, but with the 2% continuing to push all know boundaries of understanding.
If you can draw the arc to that point, what steps take place in the interim? We know debt-money was born at the same time as the steam engine & industrial revolution. Absent continued growth in production, consumption and capital investment, the debt-money system simply stops serving any useful purpose ie it doesn’t work. Some what kind of transitional phase will we go through before it’s widely accepted that sovereigns are once again in charge of national currency? (Even if it is a global body like the SDR.)
That’s what the short-hand term “money printing” means. Simply a means to an end, the end being the status quo remaining in power. It’s really not more complicated than that.
Hello B9K9,
So the essential difference between your two camps is that you think that the population will be laid waste, but that modern elites will still be in charge when BAU ends, whereas Fast Eddy believes that almost one will be spared and there will be nobody left in control? Is this correct?
I can’t answer for B9K9, but my own answer is; As things deteriorate due to diminishing returns with limits to borrowing exceeded to the point of currency collapse, followed by a new less valuable currency (causing huge losses in the transition), the rules and locales of the one’s providing essential services for the one’s with the gold or whatever form of value that may take (even after all the losses), a reserve class will emerge but only in select areas. A map of patchwork vibrant and suffering regions.
That reserve class will include sufficient security to protect them from the disenfranchised suffering and dwindling masses. Those descending standard of living masses will not just be hung out to dry in one fell swoop, but instead a strategy of slow strangulation will occur by providing them with simple but dwindling basics. Meanwhile each one of them will have an even chance to become part of the service or security industry. No sense in causing a mass revolt, but instead a slow agonizing retreat into the dark shadows while they are offered up a smidgeon of hope.
People are very adaptable, so it makes sense that all of us won’t go into that goodnight as a whole, but rather there will be a fragmenting of society, as globalization devolves into localization taking advantage of remaining resources.
I agree, people are very adaptable and there will be a lot to scavenge for a few centuries at least. The biggest unknowns are the spent fuel ponds and possibly runaway global warming. Especially if we do manage another 30 years of BAU using as much of the rest of the dirty coal and other unconventional fossil fuel reserves left at our disposal.
I struggle with that prognosis ….
Spent fuel ponds aside….
7.4+ billion people who are starving — without any electricity… without any energy at all…. not only the masses but also the elites…. (you can only stockpile so much or hide in your bunker for so long…)
There will be a situation of utter vicious chaos when this rolls over….
I really don’t see how anyone — even the military men with all the guns and ammo — will be able to survive… particularly in places with dense populations such as the United States…
We will not be able to grow food for the most part — and whatever food can be grown will quickly be raided by the hordes…
Food will be the issue — not DNA experimentation and technology… Progress ends when BAU ends….
Fast Eddy:
You already showed us that when all the food is gone it will take three weeks and 90% of the population will be dead. That is not so long a period to stay in a bunker ?
Spent fuel ponds…. the endless nightmare….
“Inequality/class war was the essence of the Holocaust.”
If I hear some of the posts correctly, by overpaying one class or people (banking, government, elites/academia/educated-members-of-our-society) so they won’t lose job security and their retirement, while the backlash can be managed all while the economy deteriorates for everyone else?
My answer: I can see that happened. Actually, it has been happening, exponentially, since 1971.
But here’s the problem: When our politics shift to the Right/Nationalists/Fascists. America is a perfect breeding ground as the America middleclass lifestyle, consumption, and American exceptionalism fails and its demised can no longer be disguised by propaganda, self-deception, and stupidity.
“The naive doesn’t see the danger until it is at his throat.” — Noam Chomsky
You are the one who fails to understand the situation.
Technology (and civilization) is not a product of money printing.
It is a product of cheap energy.
The cheap energy is gone. Finished. Burned up. Done.
Fear does strange things to people…. including preventing them from seeing reality — even when it is staring them in the face.
See Ramses & telepathy.
As long as the printing press is working, and the electricity is working, they will print currency. If they can’t get basic things to work, then there is a problem.
We have an interesting situation in our 2500 homes gated community in a rural setting. The water/sewer company is a private company with a charter to handle the water/sewer in our association. Just a year ago it cost 135 for two months of service, or 67.50 a month. Even though we got ample water in our area in spite of the drought and the State of CA stated that not all areas needed to restrict water usage or raise rates, the private company in our area raised the rates to 210 for two months citing the drought as an excuse and claimed the State of CA required it. That’s a 35% rate increase (even though we are told by the govt. inflation is 1-2%).
So I started asking questions to high ranking officials at our association and what they said was, “We don’t have anything to do with water/sewer.” I can’t get any other answer, so I suppose the rates will just keep going up, up, up. However, my suspicion is someone is getting super wealthy off of these rate hikes. And that is something that seems to becoming more and more prevalent, i.e. people in situations where they have the opportunity to gouge people for much more, are doing so in what appears to be a desperate attempt to accumulate as much wealth as possible while the going is good. I keep wondering if the slow witted masses are not so slow witted after all. Maybe they sense there is a limited time to squirrel away as much wealth as possible.
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We are in an economic depression masked by debt. It is going to get worse, but things will not be sigificantly different 5 years from now. Economic depression does not equal economic collapse. It may lead to it, but we cannot be certain of that. This should be obvious to anyone who is capable of basic reasoning.
We had an economic collapse and avoided a total global meltdown in 2008 by dumping helicopter money at the problem and those were the words of Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke.
I do agree that we are in a depression and have been since 2008. We are seeing every major eCONomy doing exactly the same stupid thing trying to fix the problems with “financial glue and duct tape”. A collapse of the global eCONomy is pretty much a 99.999% certainty. When it happens is anyone’s guess? But basic reasoning tells us you can’t keep up with these current debt levels around the world and pile on with a total global derivatives bubble that’s exceeding 1.5 quadrillion dollars and not expect something bad to happen. The blowback will come when the lightbulb goes off on the serfs that they’ve been hoodwinked since 2008 and sold that we have a prosperous eCONomy with 5.0% unemployment.
I might add that the only keeping the system functioning at this point is “FAITH” in the system and governments. Once “FAITH” is questioned is when the fireworks show starts. That’s exactly what got the ball rolling in 2008 with AIG and Lehman Bros.
You have a very strange definition of collapse. 2008 was not a collapse.
“Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke have a very strange definition of collapse. 2008 was not a collapse.”
There fixed it for ya ! Now please stick to a subject you know what you’re talking about, you look silly.
No, they said it would have collapsed. It did not collapse. There, fixed your inability to reason for you.
When GM Motors collapsed, Chrysler, AIG, Lehman Bros, the 5 TBTF Banks, the stock market shock, that’s a collapse. That’s a major system shock, any day, no matter which way you approach it. Now what kept it all from going worldwide and having the global eCONomy coming to a literal screeching halt was saving the banks. Because according to Paulson, we were starring at having tanks on the street and martial law. The collapse happened albeit it was temporary by saving the banks.
No not a collapse just old ossified failed businesses going out of business. If we had just let them die (and their rich owners become poorer) we would have allowed new healthy businesses to form. But we did not so we are stuck with the failed businesses. The answer is still clear liquidate, liquidate, liquidate. Yes there is be “friction” during the transition.
I don’t buy that Ed, regarding businesses that were failing anyway. Those are the same businesses that were around and made it thru the Great Depression and numerous recessions. And some of those recessions were outright brutal i.e. Carter and Reagan recessions. The Banks also failed and it was partly due to greed by gambling their money in a corrupt system. The system had become broken and failed and the players took advantage of the failed system.
If a singular piece or component to the system fails, that’s a crash. When everything fails at the same time, that’s a collapse. Which is exactly what happened in 2008. What Paulson and Bernanke were trying to avoid was this exact same thing playing out worldwide, which was a collapse to the global system, then everything stops. Throwing money at the problem brought the patient back from cardiac arrest.
“Sprott predicts, “There has to be a collapse. It will be way bigger than 2008. We had a debt problem in ‘07 and ‘08 and the debt has exploded.”
http://usawatchdog.com/us-is-broke-and-by-far-the-biggest-issue-eric-sprott/
The only thing I disagree with is this part ‘doing exactly the same stupid thing ‘
On the contrary, the fact that we are still here eating and breathing and typing is testament to the creative genius of the Elders… I am amazed that they have been able to levitate BAU for so many years…
Look at China — it was unraveling a few months ago — and now they have a bull market — even though the economic indicators are worsening by the day.
Harry Houdini would stand and applaud the Elders for that trick.
We are not in an economic depression – because the global economy has been growing since 2008.
When the global economy shrinks – as it did dramatically during the Crisis — if the central banks are unable to reverse the shrinkage — we will initially experience a recession then an economic depression then we will experience a complete collapse of the global economy.
Profits of corporations are down significantly and other key indicators such as shipping are falling — which likely means we are already in the recessionary phase….
More stimulus please…
A “super contango” in the futures market put a floor under oil in 2009. That can’t happen now because the oil glut has already saturated the futures market via arbitrage. Speculators tried to put a floor under oil, and in the process exhausted all storage capacity. The potential for a “super contango” no longer exists. The next leg down will be fast and brutal as the spot market is flooded by oversupply dragging down the entire term structure aka. futures, via arbitrage…
http://www.ponziworld.blogspot.co.uk/2015/11/black-swan-event-oil-on-verge-of.html
The last I looked, storage capacity looked pretty good simply because of seasonality of oil use. The next few months are likely to raise the amount stored, but I don’t know how close that will bring storage to capacity. To some exent, it is not the overall storage amount that is important, but limits on storage for particular fuels (too much diesel) or in particular places (Saudi oil tanks, for example) that makes a difference.
Hi Gail
My question is
If I make you stop oil wells, or an oil refinery or a biofuels plant stops? Does the implementation is again difficult? ¿It carries extra expenses? Is it necessary to maintain the structure running at any cost?
I think the ease of stopping and restarting oil wells, oil refineries, and biofuel plants varies.
At least at one point, there was the belief that the Saudis were letting some of their fields “rest” from time to time, to get more oil in total out of them. This was the reason that they could temporarily scale back production, without too much penalty. When a person looks at the dates when they actually scaled back production, it turns out to be when prices were low–so maybe they were trying to hold back production until they could get a better price for the oil.
I don’t really know the details of how “shutting in” oil and gas production works. It can be done. Companies prefer not to do it, in part because they have ongoing expenses, including repayment of debt, that they need to pay. Any cash flow helps, even if the price is too low.
I know with oil refineries, it takes quite a while (says?) to fully restart them.
If anything is offline for very long, there get to be a lot of issues. A company’s biggest cost is staff. If the company lays off its staff, will it be able to find well-trained new staff, when it is time to ramp up again? How about suppliers? I know that a lot of fracking companies are going out of business. I would expect that those making replacement parts for biofuel refineries will be going out of business as well. So as a practical matter, it may not really be possible to restart, after an installation is closed for a while.
If seems like suppliers are hit first–drilling rig manufacturers for example, and those making new offshore oil platforms. Once suppliers are lost, it is much harder to restart the system.
Some “radical new thinking” is needed by the Central Banisters
Deflation Risks May Warrant Radical New Central-Bank Thinking, the IMF’s Chief Economist Says
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/11/05/deflation-risks-may-warrant-radical-new-central-bank-thinking-the-imfs-chief-economist-says/
The Bank of Japan and other central banks around the world may need to try radical new easy-money policies to stave off the rising specter of deflation and revive sickly economic prospects, the International Monetary Fund’s new chief economist warns.
“I worry about deflation globally,” new IMF Economic Counselor Maurice Obstfeld said in an interview ahead of an annual IMF research conference that focuses this year on unconventional monetary policies and exchange rate regimes. “It may be time to start thinking outside the box.”
Weak—and in some cases falling—price growth has plagued Japan, Europe, the U.S. and other major economies since the financial crisis. Plummeting commodity prices are exacerbating the so-called “lowflation” and deflation problems that curb investment, spending and growth.
Surveying several dozen of the largest economies around the world, Mr. Obstfeld said the number of countries experiencing low inflation is rising. Combined with slowing emerging market output, ballooning government debt and monetary policy constrained by the lower limits of interest rates, the deflation risk is fueling fears the global economy could be fast stuck into a deep low-growth mire.
“You can always, always deal with high inflation,” Mr. Obstfeld said. But, “at the zero lower bound, our options are much more limited.”
“In order to bring inflation expectations firmly back to 2% in the advanced countries, where we’d like to see it, it’s probably going to be necessary to have some overshooting of the 2% level, or at least to entertain that as a possibility,” he said
Next on the agenda hyperinflation…
What we need is higher wages, especially for those currently below the median. Not going to happen, though.
The Administration and certain states have been pushing for rising wages.
Some Union contracts are pushing wages upwards and even service workers in fast food are demanding higher wages.
This Mr. Obsfeld of the IMF has no idea of what he’s talking about or just telling a lie about it is easier to deal with high inflation. Sorry but it is not and the elite have no doubt be preparing for this to take place.
Forgive me, but in the 3rd century AD high inflation ravaged the Roman Empire and the denarius went from pure silver to a base copper coin with a silver wash after it they created a double denarius! The citizens were overtaxed, the military was expanded and so too the government apparatus and bureaucracies. The wealthy protected themselves the best they could by evading civic offices that required huge outlays of personal funds and building isolated estates worked by later called serfs.
The central government became more oppressive and demanding, such as, insisting taxes be paid in gold or real goods. In that day central governments did not have the means to run up deficits or national debt. The Emperor Docletion is known to have tried to impose price controls by edit that, of course, failed.
We shall see high inflation, they have no choice.
So wage deflation and interest rate reductions have been a feature of world economies for ten years, which is a thorn in the side of your continual bleating that hyperinflation is just around the corner and the best you can come up with is an obscure and unsubstantiated rambling that “The Administration and certain states have been pushing for rising wages. Some Union contracts are pushing wages upwards and even service workers in fast food are demanding higher wages”.
I think you will need a little more evidence than that to get anyone to listen. But you need to listen to Chris Matensons Crash Course. Take particular note on how money is destroyed. Understand that debt creation has been accelerating towards light speed for nearly two decades. That debt cannot be printed away. Debt is actually what is sustaining the system, it keeps businesses in business, it enables them to pay wages, it keeps governments in business, it keeps energy flowing and most of all it keeps banks lending and able to create more debt to complete the cycle. Everything is balanced on a knife’s edge. Uncontrolled deflation or inflation will cause an overbalance and everything falls into chaos.
It really does not matter at all if anyone listens. That is the beauty of this forum.
It is all ready set in place…the outcome that is.
The FED is telling you their objective…what is the old saying
“Don’t fight the FED”.
Anyway, I lived in the 70’s and seen inflation…many here were not around.
We just got a glimpse of it so far.
There is so much debt, the only way to pay is with cheaper $$$$
Hmmmm…
China’s $1.6 Trillion Stock Rally Seen Doomed Without Earnings
Hao Hong has seen this movie before, and it didn’t end well for China’s stock-market bulls.
Five months after an equity boom built on weak corporate profits turned into a $5 trillion crash, a similar scenario is playing out in China today. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index has surged 20 percent from its Aug. 26 low, despite third-quarter profits that trailed analyst estimates at 68 percent of companies in the index, the eighth straight quarter of disappointing results.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-05/china-s-stock-market-bulls-are-back-but-where-are-the-earnings-
This deserves a song…
10 out of 10 for that outfit.
Details!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-05/us-planes-fired-fleeing-civilians-doctors-without-borders-says
Whatever it takes…
Feudalism
It gets referred to a lot, but what does it mean in practice? It’s nicely summed up in the food distribution in the Great Hall of a lord in the Middle Ages, basically Germanic war lord culture with a bit of refinement:
The Lord sits on the only chair, under a canopy (everyone else gets a stool, including the wife.) on a raised platform. No-one may speak to him unless invited – same rule still applies to the British Royal Family.
Bread is distributed thus:
Fresh bread baked that day: the Lord. And any VIP. Not sure if that included the wife, possibly not….
Two-day old bread: other higher-class people at the Lord’s table.
Three or four-day old bread: everyone else.
Food is served on stale bread ‘plates’. These, soaked with juices from the meal, together with any left-over food, bones, etc, are then collected and given at the end of the meal to the poor who do not have the right to eat in the Great Hall. Actually quite nutritious I should have thought.
All the servers and higher servants have to test the food offered to the Lord before he eats or drinks, to ensure against poisoning.
Hierarchical, but not exactly brutal or degrading. It was regarded as very bad manners for the lord to stuff himself and leave the worst for others,
Yes, it was a protection racket of sorts.
You referred to an early stage, lets say even way before 13th century.
By that time several outside centers of power wanted to split the this racket’s top chair position, namely competing factions of clergy and their orders, including “global” financial houses of the time like the Maltese Cross/Johanities. The king was also increasingly under preassure from semi independent city states and their financial/mil powers and or lesser nobility striking luck in war/uprising efforts when attempting to building own fief/kingdoms, afterwards necessary to reach some deal sharing compromise with those newcomers etc..
The predominate feature of feudal societies – whether Europe, Japan, or elsewhere – was that of being in a low state of energy. Without productive surplus, organizational efforts became de-centralized, and thus fell on local communities. Therefore, once Roman garrisons were abandoned, it was the responsibility of local fiefdoms to patrol/control their regional domains.
Without the ability to dominate the population on a pervasive level, rules & routines had to be simplified ie to “reduce overhead”. The counter to that was to increase the severity of sanction & punishment for any violations. Thus, because there weren’t any prisons (as we commonly know them today), except jails for traitors awaiting execution, we see the Tyburn tree utilized extensively for such infractions as petty theft.
Many look at this period with horror, but realistically, there was probably a lot more freedom among serfs to do as they pleased as long as two basic conditions were met: (a) tend the fields to deliver the necessary harvest quotas; and (b) don’t fvck with the PTB. That included not only the lord, but the church as well – treason/heresy was a straight shot to perdition. So, as long as you performed your baseline work, and didn’t grumble & complain about your condition in life, then you were pretty free to do what you wanted: fornicate, do drugs, get drunk, etc.
Projecting forward to another low energy state of nature, the 98% of the 500m remaining (once population levels are radically reduced) will once again be expected to just keep minimal oil production going, electrical generating plants operating, and essential foodstuffs harvested and delivered.
The pay-off for the serfs will be excellent health, all kinds of mind-altering experiences, whether drug induced or stimulated by new discoveries in brain chemistry & sense stimuli, and sufficient calories to not want for food. If you ask how the above will be achieved, that is what the 2% will be responsible for.
The current trajectory of science & technology is such that we pretty much have the entire DNA sequence down for examination. We know now that all multi-cellular organisms are related to simple, single cell bacteria, yeast, etc. The deal for radically reducing per capita consumption by around 95% is that the precious, incredible value of fossil fuels will be dedicated to maintaining further research & development, rather than powering 4×4 trucks for redneck retards, or expensive AE vanity projects for simpering hippies.
Everyone enjoys a Revelation style apocalypse story, but that’s not the way reality works. It’s constantly in transition, so the key is understand where one stands in any respective cycle. In contemporary terms, we’re at the point where the debt-money system no longer works, so we’ll simply move to straight up printing (we can call itNIRP) to keep essential sectors – like the military – working.
Being one of your futuristic stoner serfs doesn’t actually sound like a bad deal, so I kind of hope you’re right, B9K9. Well, as long as I’m not one of the ‘reduced’.
I live in a region that is perhaps ground zero for the highest per capita consumption on the globe. No wonder illegals want to (and do) move here. It doesn’t take long before they too can qualify for a no money down, no interest loan on a shiny new big truck.
Lets say these big trucks get around 10mpg and have 30 gallon tanks. So, they can travel around 300 miles, or 5 hours of power @ 60mph. In contract, a Honda 2000 generator can run for up to 10 hours on 1 gallon of gas in eco-mode. Eco-mode probably produces enough wattage to power 3 computers (I can re-charge my RV’s house batteries in under 2 hours in eco-mode.)
Now, multiply that simple comparison across millions of vehicles, and one quickly realizes that the most important element in the history of mankind, the one thing that could possibly (outside chance) launch Sapiens into another spatial dimension, is being wasted by at astronomical levels.
Right now, everyone is in la-la land; don’t get me wrong, I enjoy it as much as the next guy. But when push comes to shove – probably in 50+- years, hard decisions are going to have to be made. Does the race of humanity simply waste its heritage, or are movements going to take place that put society on some kind of sustainable basis?
It’s estimated that the death tolls in the English and continental civil wars that raged over Christian doctrine reached over 10% of the total population. This is just one indicator of what people are capable once they decide they cannot live with an intractable problem. Shit just gets done.
I think the death statistic reached way above 10% on the continent and especially during the 30yrs war around german speaking areas and the pre-reformation wars/crusades in Bohemian kingdom 200yrs earlier..
I should have continued by saying 3 computers for 10 hours on 1 gallon of fuel equals 900 hours on 30 gallons. So, we could have 3 research scientists working for 1/2 of the year on the same amount of fuel it takes to drive my RV for 5 hours.
While they could using their data base tools & simulation software to tease out new & interesting DNA combinations to combat disease, create super-productive gains, or just get people wired, all I’ve done is move up/down the California coast.
It’s all fun & games until someone starts crying; in other words, party now because the clock is ticking before some hard decisions are going to be made.
Does that same gen set make the coffee, power the modem, lights, air con, microwave, telephone and EV they drive to get to work.
Very radical! And much more appealing that starvation, disease, violence, suffering and deprivation. I always thought the 60’s would have been a groovy time to have grown up….
Interesting! The system needed to “work” for it to continue.
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Every last drop of oil
Maersk Line to Cut Capacity and Jobs as Global Demand Sags
“The Danish company, which last month lowered its profit forecast for 2015 citing a gloomier outlook for the global shipping market, will shed 4,000 jobs in its Maersk Line unit as part of a program to “simplify the organization,” it said in an e-mailed statement on Wednesday.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-04/maersk-line-to-cut-capacity-reduce-jobs-to-defend-market-role
The shipping industry and international trade data seem to give a fairly good indication of where we are. Caterpillar is also an oft-cited bellwether, especially for the health of the emerging market economies, and they are heading for their fourth year in a row of declining sales. I noticed this morning that their rivals JCB are cutting jobs, too:
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/nov/04/jcb-to-lay-off-nearly-300-staff-after-dramatic-fall-in-export-orders
That tells the tale doesn’t it…. the MSM talking heads can blather on all day about recovery this and recovery that…
But one can easily dismiss that simply by looking at the CAT numbers…
Maybe we should have use a CAT Index to get a true reading of the global economy…
Or create an index of say 10 key bell weather companies…
JCB seems to specialize in construction equipment. I don’t think it is in the oil and gas sector as heavily as Caterpillar is. So JCBs downturn may be more indicative of a broader downturn.
The pressures are building… eventually we’ll get this:
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/E_hci9vrvfw/hqdefault.jpg
Being dim. What on earth is it?
Implosion.