Item of General Interest
July 25. I received notice today that an article I helped write is available for free download for the next fifty days. The corrected free link for the article is "An Oil Production Forecast for China Considering Economic Limits." The article discusses the possibility that oil prices may not rise endlessly, and evaluates three future price scenarios. Under the "low" scenario (prices remain under $50 per barrel), oil production in China has already peaked.
Tag Archives: debt defaults
2016: Oil Limits and the End of the Debt Supercycle
What is ahead for 2016? Most people don’t realize how tightly the following are linked: Growth in debt Growth in the economy Growth in cheap-to-extract energy supplies Inflation in the cost of producing commodities Growth in asset prices, such as … Continue reading
Posted in Financial Implications
Tagged debt defaults, debt growth, debt supercycle, financial collapse, low wages, oil price, oil storage
1,449 Comments
Economic growth: How it works; how it fails; why wealth disparity occurs
Economists have put together models of how an economy works, but these models were developed years ago, when the world economy was far from limits. These models may have been reasonably adequate when they were developed, but there is increasing … Continue reading
Why “supply and demand” doesn’t work for oil
The traditional understanding of supply and demand works in some limited cases–will a manufacturer make red dresses or blue dresses? The manufacturer’s choice doesn’t make much difference to the economic system as a whole, except perhaps in the amount of … Continue reading
Posted in Financial Implications
Tagged debt defaults, low oil prices, oil demand, oil production, peak oil, supply and demand
1,389 Comments
Oops! Low oil prices are related to a debt bubble
Why is the price of oil so low now? In fact, why are all commodity prices so low? I see the problem as being an affordability issue that has been hidden by a growing debt bubble. As this debt bubble has … Continue reading
Our Electricity Problem: Getting the Diagnosis Correct
What is really wrong with our energy system, particularly as it relates to electricity and natural gas? Are there any mitigations available? I have been asked to give a talk at an Electricity/Natural Gas conference that includes both producers and … Continue reading
