Oops! The economy is like a self-driving car

Back in 1776, Adam Smith talked about the “invisible hand” of the economy. Investopedia explains how the invisible hand works as, “In a free market economy, self-interested individuals operate through a system of mutual interdependence to promote the general benefit of society at large.”

We talk and act today as if governments and economic policy are what make the economy behave as it does. Unfortunately, Adam Smith was right; there is an invisible hand guiding the economy. Today we know that there is a physics reason for why the economy acts as it does: the economy is a dissipative structure–something we will talk more about later.  First, let’s talk about how the economy really operates.

Our Economy Is Like a Self-Driving Car: Wages of Non-Elite Workers Are the Engine

Workers make goods and provide services. Non-elite workers–that is, workers without advanced education or supervisory responsibilities–play a special role, because there are so many of them. The economy can grow (just like a self-driving car can move forward) (1) if workers can make an increasing quantity of goods and services each year, and (2) if non-elite workers can afford to buy the goods that are being produced. If these workers find fewer jobs available, or if they don’t pay sufficiently well, it is as if the engine of the self-driving car is no longer working. The car could just as well fall apart into 1,000 pieces in the driveway.

If the wages of non-elite workers are too low, they cannot afford to pay very much in taxes, so governments are adversely affected. They also cannot afford to buy capital goods such as vehicles and homes. Thus, depressed wages of non-elite workers adversely affect both businesses and governments. If these non-elite workers are getting paid well, the “make/buy loop” is closed: the people whose labor creates fairly ordinary goods and services can also afford to buy those goods and services.

Recurring Needs of Car/Economy

The economy, like a car, has recurring needs, analogous to monthly lease payments, insurance payments, and maintenance costs. These would include payments for a variety of support services, including the following:

  • Government programs, including payments to the elderly and unemployed
  • Higher education programs
  • Healthcare

Needless to say, the above services tend to keep rising in cost, whether or not the wages of non-elite workers keep rising to keep up with these costs.

The economy also needs to purchase a portfolio of goods on a very regular basis (weekly or monthly), or it cannot operate. These include:

  • Fresh water
  • Food of many different types, including vegetables, fruits, and grains
  • Energy products of many types, such as oil, coal, natural gas, and uranium. These needs include many subtypes suited to particular refineries or electric power plants.
  • Minerals of many types, including copper, iron, lithium, and many others

Some of these goods are needed directly by the workers in the economy. Other goods are needed to make and operate the “tools” used by the workers. It is the growing use of tools that allows workers to keep becoming more productive–produce the rising quantity of goods and services that is needed to keep the economy growing. These tools are only possible through the use of energy products and other minerals of many kinds.

I have likened the necessary portfolio of goods the economy needs to ingredients in a recipe, or to chemicals needed for a particular experiment. If one of the “ingredients” is not available–probably because of prices that are too high for consumers or too low for producers–the economy needs to “make a smaller batch.” We saw this happen in the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009. Figure 1 shows that the use of several types of energy products, plus raw steel, shrank back at exactly the same time. In fact, the recent trend in coal and raw steel suggests another contraction may be ahead.

Figure 1. World Product Consumption, indexed to the year 2000, for selected products. Raw Steel based on World USGS data; other amounts based of BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2016 data.

Figure 1. World Product Consumption, indexed to the year 2000, for selected products. Raw Steel based on World USGS data; other amounts based of BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2016 data.

The Economy Re-Optimizes When Things Go Wrong 

If you have a Global Positioning System (GPS) in your car to give you driving directions, you know that whenever you make a wrong turn, it recalculates and gives you new directions to get you back on course. The economy works in much the same way. Let’s look at an example: 

Back in early 2014, I showed this graph from a presentation given by Steve Kopits. It shows that the cost of oil and gas extraction suddenly started on an upward trend, about the year 1999. Instead of costs rising at 0.9% per year, costs suddenly started to rise by an average of 10.9% per year.

Figure 1. Figure by Steve Kopits of Westwood Douglas showing trends in world oil exploration and production costs per barrel. CAGR is "Compound Annual Growth Rate."

Figure 2. Figure by Steve Kopits of Westwood Douglas showing trends in world oil exploration and production costs per barrel. CAGR is “Compound Annual Growth Rate.”

When costs were rising by only 0.9% per year, it was relatively easy for oil producers to offset the cost increases by efficiency gains. Once costs started rising much more quickly, it was a sign that we had in some sense “run out” of new fields of easy-to-extract oil and gas. Instead, oil companies were forced to start accessing fields with much more expensive-to-produce oil and gas, if they wanted to replace depleting fields with new fields. There would soon be a mismatch between wages (which generally don’t rise very much) and the cost of goods made with oil, such as food grown using oil products.

Did the invisible hand sit idly by and let business as usual continue, despite this big rise in the cost of extraction of oil from new fields? I would argue that it did not. It was clear to business people around the world that there was a large amount of coal in China and India that had been bypassed because these countries had not yet become industrialized. This coal would provide a much cheaper source of energy than the oil, especially if the cost of oil appeared likely to rise. Furthermore, wages in these countries were lower as well.

The economy took the opportunity to re-optimize. Part of this re-optimization can be seen in Figure 1, shown earlier in this post. It shows that world coal supply has grown rapidly since 2000, while oil supply has grown quite slowly.

Figure 3, below, shows a different kind of shift: a shift in the way oil supplies were distributed, after 2000. We see that China, Saudi Arabia, and India are all examples of countries with big increases in oil consumption. At the same time, many of the developed countries found their oil consumption shrinking, rather than growing.

Figure 2. Figure showing oil consumption growth since 2000 for selected countries, based on data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2016.

Figure 3. Figure showing oil consumption growth since 2000 for selected countries, based on data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2016.

A person might wonder why Saudi Arabia’s use of oil would grow rapidly after the year 2000. The answer is simple: Saudi Arabia’s oil costs are its costs as a producer. Saudi Arabia has a lot of very old wells from which oil extraction is inexpensive–perhaps $15 per barrel. When oil prices are high and the cost of production is low, the government of an  oil-exporting nation collects a huge amount of taxes. Saudi Arabia was in such a situation. As a result, it could afford to use oil for many purposes, including electricity production and increased building of highways. It was not an oil importer, so the high world oil prices did not affect the country negatively.

China’s rapid rise in oil production could take place because, even with added oil consumption, its overall cost of producing goods would remain low because of the large share of coal in its energy mix and its low wages. The huge share of coal in China’s energy mix can be seen in Figure 4, below. Figure 4 also shows the extremely rapid growth in China’s energy consumption that took place once China joined the World Trade Organization in late 2001.

Figure 3. China energy consumption by fuel, based on BP 2016 SRWE.

Figure 4. China energy consumption by fuel based on BP 2016 Statistical Review of World Energy.

India was in a similar situation to China, because it could also build its economy on cheap coal and cheap labor.

When the economy re-optimizes itself, job patterns are affected as well.  Figure 5 shows the trend in labor force participation rate in the US:

Figure 4. US Civilian labor force participation rate, based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, as graphed by fred.stlouisfed.org.

Figure 5. US Civilian labor force participation rate, based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, as graphed by fred.stlouisfed.org.

Was it simply a coincidence that the US labor force participation rate started falling about the year 2000? I don’t think so. The shift in energy consumption to countries such as China and India, as oil costs rose, could be expected to reduce job availability in the US. I know several people who were laid off from the company I worked for, as their jobs (in computer technical support) were shifted overseas. These folks were not alone in seeing their jobs shipped overseas.

The World Economy Is Like a Car that Cannot Make Sharp Turns 

The world economy cannot make very sharp turns, because there is a very long lead-time in making any change. New factories need to be built. For these factories to be used sufficiently to make economic sense, they need to be used over a long period.

At the same time, the products we desire to make more energy efficient, for example, automobiles, homes, and electricity generating plants, aren’t replaced very often. Because of the short life-time of incandescent light bulbs, it is possible to force a fairly rapid shift to more efficient types. But it is much more difficult to encourage a rapid change in high-cost items, which are typically used for many years. If a car owner has a big loan outstanding, the owner doesn’t want to hear that his car no longer has any value. How could he afford a new car, or pay back his loan?

A major limit on making any change is the amount of resources of a given type, available in a given year. These amounts tend to change relatively slowly, from year to year. (See Figure 1.) If more lithium, copper, oil, or any other type of resource is needed, new mines are needed. There needs to be an indication to producers that the price of these commodities will stay high enough, for a long enough period, to make this investment worthwhile. Low prices are a problem for many commodities today. In fact, production of many commodities may very well fall in the near future, because of continued low prices. This would collapse the economy.

The World Economy Can’t Go Very Far Backward, Without Collapsing

The 2007-2009 recession is an example of an attempt of the economy to shrink backward. (See Figure 1.) It didn’t go very far backward, and even the small amount of shrinkage that did occur was a huge problem. Many people lost their jobs, or were forced to take pay cuts. One of the big problems in going backward is the large amount of debt outstanding. This debt becomes impossible to repay, when the economy tries to shrink. Asset prices tend to fall as well.

Furthermore, while previous approaches, such as using horses instead of cars, may be appealing, they are extremely difficult to implement in practice. There are far fewer horses now, and there would not be places to “park” the horses in cities. Cleaning up after horses would be a problem, without businesses specializing in handling this problem.

What World Leaders Can Do to (Sort of) Fix the Economy

There are basically two things that governments can do, to try to make the economy (or car) go faster:

  1. They can encourage more debt. This is done in many ways, including lowering interest rates, reducing bank regulation, encouraging lower underwriting standards or longer term loans, taking out greater debt themselves, guaranteeing debt of non-creditworthy entities, and finding new markets for “recycled debt.”
  2. They can increase complexity levels. This means increasing output of goods and services through the use of more and better machines and through more training and specialization of workers. More complex businesses are likely to lead to more international businesses and longer supply chains.

Both of these actions work like turbocharging a car. They have the possibility of making the economy run faster, but they have the downside of extra cost. In the case of debt, the cost is the interest that needs to be paid; also the risk of “blow-up” if the economy slows. There is a limit on how low interest rates can go, as well. Ultimately, part of the output of the economy must go to debt holders, leaving less for workers.

In the case of complexity, the problem is that there gets to be increasing wage disparity, when some employees have wages based on special training, while others do not. Also, with capital goods, some individuals are owners of capital goods, while others are not. The arrangement creates wealth disparity, besides wage disparity.

In theory, both debt and increased complexity can help the economy grow faster. However, as I noted at the beginning, it is the wages of the non-elite workers that are especially important in allowing the economy to continue to move forward. The greater the proportion of the revenue that goes to high paid employees and to bond holders, the less that is available to non-elite workers. Also, there are diminishing returns to adding debt and complexity. At some point, the cost of each of these types of turbo-charging exceeds the benefit of the process.

Why the Economy Works Like a Self-Driving Car

The reason why the economy acts like a self-driving car is because the economy is, in physics terms, a dissipative structure. It grows and changes “on its own,” using energy sources available to it. The result is exactly the same effect that Adam Smith was observing. What makes the economy behave in this way is the fact that flows of energy are available to the economy. This happens because an economy is an open system, meaning its borders are permeable to energy flows.

When there is an abundance of energy available for use (from the sun, or from burning fossil fuels, or even from food), a variety of dissipative structures self-organize. One example is hurricanes, which self-organize over warm oceans. Another example is plants and animals, which self-organize and grow from small beginnings, if they have adequate food energy, plus other necessities of life. Another example is ecosystems, consisting of a number of different kinds of plants and animals, which interact together for the common good. Even stars, including our sun, are dissipative structures.

The economy is yet another type of a dissipative structure. This is why Adam Smith noticed the effect of the invisible hand of the economy. The energy that sustains the economy comes from a variety of sources. Humans have been able to obtain energy by burning biomass for over one million years. Other long-term energy sources include solar energy that provides heat and light for gardens, and wind energy that powers sail boats. More recently, other types of energy have been added, including fossil fuels energy.

When energy supplies are very cheap and easy to obtain, it is easy to ramp up their use. With growing supplies of energy, it is possible to keep adding more and better tools for people to work with. I use the term “tools” broadly. Besides machines to enable greater production, I include things like roads and advanced education, which also are helpful in making workers more effective. The use of growing energy supplies allows growing use of tools, and this growing use of tools increasingly leverages human labor. This is why we see growing productivity; we can expect to see falling human productivity if energy supplies should start to decline. Falling productivity will tend to push the economy toward collapse.

One problem for economies is diminishing returns of resource extraction. Diminishing returns cause the economy to become less and less efficient. Once energy extraction starts to have a significant problem with diminishing returns (such as in Figure 2), it is like losing energy resources into a sinkhole. More work is necessary, without greater output in terms of goods and services. Indirectly, economic growth must suffer. This seems to be the problem that the economy has been encountering in recent years. From the invisible hand’s point of view, $100 per barrel oil is very different from $20 per barrel oil.

One characteristic of dissipative structures is that they keep re-optimizing for the overall benefit of the dissipative structure. We saw in Figures 3 and 4 how fuel use and jobs rebalance around the world. Another example of rebalancing is the way the economy uses every part of a barrel of oil. If, for example, our only goal were to maximize the number of miles driven for automobiles, it would make sense to operate cars using diesel fuel, rather than gasoline. In fact, the energy mix available to the economy includes quite a bit of gasoline and natural gas liquids. If we need to use what is available, it makes sense to use gasoline in private passenger cars, and save diesel for commercial use.

Another characteristic of dissipative structures is that they are not permanent. They grow for a while, and then collapse. Later, new similar dissipative structures may develop and indirectly replace the ones that have collapsed. In this way, the overall system is able to evolve in a way that adapts to changing conditions.

What Are the Likely Events that Would Cause the Economy to Collapse?

I modeled the system as being like a self-driving car. The thing that keeps the system operating is the continued growth of inflation-adjusted wages of non-elite workers. This analogy was chosen because in ecosystems in general, the energy return on the labor of an animal is very important. The collapse of a population of fish, or of some other animal, tends to happen when the return on the labor of that animal falls too low.

In the case of the fish, the return on the labor of the fish falls too low when nearby supplies of food disappear, and the fish must swim too far to obtain new supplies of food. The return on human labor would seem to be the inflation-adjusted wages of non-elite workers. We know that wages for many workers have been falling in recent years, because of competition from globalization, and because of replacement of human labor by advanced machines, such as computers and robots.

Figure 6. Bottom 50% income share, from recent Piketty analysis.

Figure 6. Bottom 50% income share, from recent Piketty analysis.

Besides the problem of falling wages of non-elite workers, earlier in this post I mentioned a number of other issues that make the wages of these workers go less far. These include growing government spending, and the growing costs of education and healthcare. I also mentioned the problem of rising debt, and the increased concentration of wealth, as we try to add complexity to solve problems. All of these issues make it hard for “demand”–which might also be called “affordability”–to be sufficiently great to allow commodity prices to rise to the level producers need for profitability.

Prices Play a Very Important Role in the Economy

The pricing system is the communication system of the economy, as a dissipative structure. One use of energy is to create “information.” Prices are a high level form of information.

One big area where prices come up is with respect to the whole portfolio of products needed on a regular basis, which I mentioned earlier (water, food, energy products, and mineral products). In order for the system to continue working, the prices need to be both:

  • Affordable by consumers
  • High enough for producers to cover their costs, including a margin for taxes and reinvestment

Now, in 2017, prices are “sort of” affordable for consumers, but they are not high enough for producersOil companies will go out of business if these low prices persist.

Back in 2007 and 2008, we had the reverse problem. Prices were high enough for producers, but too high for consumers (especially non-elite workers). This is a big part of what pushed the economy into recession.

We noticed back in Figure 1 that quantities of energy products/goods tend to move up and down together. A similar phenomenon holds true for prices: commodity prices tend to rise and fall together (Figure 7).  The reason this happens is because when the world economy is moving swiftly forward (higher wages, more building activity, more debt), demand tends to be high for many different types of materials at the same time. When the economy slows, prices of all of these commodities tend to fall at the same time. Inflation tends to fall as well.

Figure 6. Prices of oil, call and natural gas tend to rise and fall together. Prices based on 2016 Statistical Review of World Energy data.

Figure 7. Prices of oil, coal and natural gas tend to rise and fall together. Prices based on 2016 Statistical Review of World Energy data.

If prices cannot rise high enough for producers, it is likely a sign that wages of non-elite workers are already too low. The affordability loop mentioned earlier is not being closed, so prices cannot stay up at a high enough level to maintain production.

Most Modelers Overlook the Fact that the Economy Is an Open System

Most energy models are based on one of two views of the world: (1) fossil fuel energy supply will eventually run short, so we must use it as sparingly as possible; or (2) we want to reduce the use of fossil fuels as quickly as possible, because of climate change. Because of these issues, we want to leverage the fossil fuel energy we have, to as great an extent as possible, with energy that we can somehow capture from renewable sources, such as the solar energy or wind. With this view of the situation, our major objective is to create “renewables” that use fossil fuel energy as efficiently as possible. The hope is that these renewables, together with the actions of governments, will allow the economy to gradually shrink back to a level that is somehow more sustainable.

Implicit is this model is the view that the economy, and the world in general, is a closed system. Our current government and business leaders are in charge; they can make the changes they would prefer, without the invisible hand causing an unforeseen problem. Very few have realized that the economy cannot really shrink back very much; past history, as well as the nature of dissipative structures, shows that economies tend to collapse. The only economies that have at least temporarily avoided that fate have shifted toward less complexity–for example, eliminating huge government programs, such as armies–rather than yielding to the temptation to add ever more complexity, such as wind turbines and solar panels.

The real situation is that we have a here-and-now problem of too low wages for non-elite workers. Commodity prices are also too low. Intermittent renewables such as wind and solar are thought to be solutions, but it is well-known that intermittent renewables cause too-low prices for other types of electricity generation, when added to the electric grid. Thus, they are likely part of the low-price problem, not part of the solution. Temporary solutions, if there are any, are likely in the direction of cutting back on government expenditures and reducing regulation of banks. In fact, with the election of Trump and the passage of Brexit, the economy seems to again be re-optimizing.

We also know that dissipative structures do not shrink back well, at all. They tend to collapse, instead. For example, you, as a human being, are a dissipative structure. If your food intake were cut back to, say, 500 calories per day, how well would you do? If you could not get along on a very low calorie diet, how would you expect the economy to shrink back to a renewables-only level? Renewables that can be used in a shrunken economy are scarce; we don’t have a huge number of trees to cut down. We cannot maintain the electric grid without fossil fuels.

The assumption that the economy is a closed system is pretty much standard when modeling our current energy situation. This occurs because, until recently, we did not understand that the self-organizing properties of inanimate systems were as important as they are. Also, modeling of the economy as a closed system, rather than an open system, makes modeling much easier. The problem is that closed system modeling doesn’t really tell the right story. For a discussion of some of the issues associated with this mis-modeling, see the recent academic paper, Is the increased use of biofuels the road to sustainability? Consequences of the methodological approach.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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2,573 Responses to Oops! The economy is like a self-driving car

  1. ITEOTWAWKI says:

    To my fellow Doomers (I prefer the term Realist myself) who agree that this whole IC thing is about to end (under 5 years), this is a good article:

    https://psmag.com/a-counterintuitive-route-to-happiness-10aed0493066#.58mrlnzbz

    • timl2k11 says:

      Seems to have the opposite effect on me (knowing time is limited) for whatever reason, I guess because I haven’t reached certain important goals. When I run out of my supply of klonopin I am royally screwed. I’ve always had a nervous disposition.

    • greg machala says:

      I too see myself as a realist. Not a doomer.

  2. Artleads says:

    Things aren’t looking good for climate change either:

    William P Hall (PhD)

    President, Kororoit Institute

    Evolutionary Biology of Species and Organisms

    Draft – 08-03-2017 University of Melbourne.

    Despite what KM says GM is not so alone afterall! 😮 Why am I not surprised? ::)

    My conclusion from what appears to be undeniable evidence is that we have already passed the tipping point where we had any hope of stopping warming at 2 or even 3 °C, and urgently need to focus on greatly improving our scientific understanding, and learning how to live with and survive decades of rapid heating, and to develop global geoengineering tools to actively remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere before most life on the planet (including ourselves) is exterminated from heat stroke and starvation in collapsing ecosystems.

    http://www.orgs-evolution-knowledge.net/Index/Essays/ClimateEmergency/Start%20of%20Runaway%20Warming.html

    A very comprehensive paper!

    Dr Hall is an evolutionary biologist by training (PhD Harvard, 1973) with completed research in comparative cytogenetics, systematics, speciation, and biogeography of North American lizards. He has significant teaching experience at Southern Illinois University, Edwardsville; Harvard University Extension; the University of Puerto Rico, Rio Piedras and the University of Colorado, Boulder in many areas of biology including vertebrate and invertebrate biology, marine biology, genetics (molecular and classical), evolutionary biology, biogeography. He was a University of Melbourne Research Fellow in Genetics from July 1977 through August 1979, and went back to the USA to teach for a year at University of Maryland, College Park.

    Commenter says:

    Re: IS THIS THE START OF RUNAWAY GLOBAL WARMING?

    Isn’t saying that something is “runaway” mean there is nothing stopping it?

    If so, perhaps the author’s last sentence should be changed to:

    My conclusion from what appears to be undeniable evidence is that we have already passed the tipping point where we had any hope of stopping warming at 2 or even 3 °C, and urgently need to focus on transitioning in a humane way most life on the planet (including ourselves) before natural processes take over and they are exterminated from heat stroke and starvation in collapsing ecosystems.

    • timl2k11 says:

      Yes, unfortunately there are positive feedback loops involved. Warmer air can hold more water vapor (also a greenhouse gas) which leads to warmer temperatures and so on until a new equilibrium is reached. Wow, young folks have no clue what is coming there way, either collapse or runaway global warming. Pick your poison. I think 1945, what a great year to be born! (Not me though, I’m only 40.

      • greg machala says:

        There are a number of limits to growth we are facing. The odds of any single one collapsing our system is small. But, together all these looming (and growing number of) threats have the potential to cause catastrophic damage to our current way of life on planet Earth.

  3. jerry says:

    You know I can’t begin to imagine what Trump is going to say to the country and world when his vision of a Great America doesn’t come to fruition. At some point lies catches up with us all. So imagine in year four ‘Ah, sorry I didn’t know there wasn’t or isn’t enough oil to run our economy lol.’

    • A Real Black Person says:

      Obama made up for being a lame duck in his fourth term by issuing a record number of presidential pardons. Trump will probably try to do something similar with the presidential powers he has.

    • i think it’s more important to imagine what the country is going to say/do when trumpanomics has crashed the economy

      • A Real Black Person says:

        We will get a cosmopolitan idealist* , someone committed to increasing complexity , and the economy will crash again.

        *Part of the The “lets spend more money on everything because we have plenty to go around, only our prejudices are preventing stuff from being more fairly distributed brigade so let’s just cut the checks, already”

      • Joebanana says:

        Norman
        The economy is already a dead man walking, imo. Is there really an alternative you would propose at this point that could help?

        • short of moving to Eddy’s hideaway, I don’t have an answer

        • greg machala says:

          I agree, the economy is in bad shape. Retail store closures are accelerating. This will put more downward pressure on oil prices as demand continues to wane.

    • Joel says:

      From your article:
      “Trudeau’s speech also touted his support for the Keystone XL pipeline, one of the few areas where he and President Donald Trump share common ground.”
      Sounds like they are practically buddies.
      http://campusy.unc.edu/files/2016/05/best-buddies.jpeg

    • Fast Eddy says:

      ‘The prime minister was also given an award for his efforts to balance environmental protection with energy production. ‘

      Now that is funny!!!

      • ITEOTWAWKI says:

        This moron probably does not even realize what an oxymoron that is….

      • Joebanana says:

        Fast-
        The Dear Leader is such a smooth talking fraud it makes anyone with two brain cells want to puke. He is the kind of guy you just wish would take a swing at you at a bar.

        Another smooth talking Obunghole type. The most dangerous of all types of politician. Those boys who gave him the award know exactly how great a spokesman he is for their interests. He will keep the protesters away.

        “You cannot make a choice anymore on what’s good for the environment, and what’s good for the economy,” How’s that for BS boilerplate?

  4. Joel says:

    Small relocation business growing, things looking up. Prepper getaway business, profit motivation lives on……

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-10/preppers-stuck-cities-elite-chartering-getaway-boats-case-manhattan-emergency

    “For Long Island, where millions of New Yorkers live, it would be 20-29 hours to get off the island…….

    That’s why those with means, and forethought, are now chartering emergency charters to get out of the city – probably a good idea, especially if the helicopter is out of your price range.

    You have to drive this boat yourself …. service costs an annual fee of $90,000 and is catered toward wealthy individuals and corporations who don’t have time to mastermind their own escape.”

  5. Duncan Idaho says:

    I expect the glut will be over by mid 2017, but if OPEC increases output at that point it might last a bit longer.

    I am very doubtful of claims by the IEA that US LTO output will increase significantly near $60/b, it might increase a bit due to increased completion rates in the Permian and Eagle Ford, but continued decline in the Bakken may offset some of this increase.

    The LTO oil companies will continue to lose money, at some point these companies become bankrupt, they have lasted much longer than I would have thought in Jan 2015. I do not think losing money year after year is a viable business model, but as long as investors are willing to part with their money, it will continue

    Dennis

    Everyone likes the color red

  6. Glenn Stehle says:

    Oil, Gas CEOs Optimistic about Future of E&P in North America
    http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?hpf=1&a_id=148812&utm_source=DailyNewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=2017-03-10&utm_content=&utm_campaign=feature_1

    Three industry executives – Continental Resources, Inc. CEO Harold Hamm, Range Resources Corporation’s CEO Jeff Ventura and Anadarko Petroleum Corporation’s CEO Al Walker – convened during the conference to discuss the future of E&P activity in North America – and what their respective companies are doing to prepare for it.

    Global demand for natural gas is expected to surge in the future, but Ventura believes the United States may have trouble meeting the production requirements.

    “Certain oil and gas plays are better than others,” said Ventura, whose company devoted the majority of its 2016 capital budget toward acreage in the Marcellus. “A misconception within the Marcellus and other plays is that all acreage is created equal.”

    The reality is there are core areas and sweet spots. Typically, the core area of the play is only 5 to 20 percent of the total area the play covers, meaning 80 to 95 percent of most plays are not core, he said.

    “According to IHS, a play-by-play review suggests all of the plays will face sweet spot exhaustion within 10 years except for the Permian and the Marcellus – which most likely means production from these plays could slow significantly prior to that,” Ventura said.

    With limited core acreage, a lot of non-core drilling will be required in order to meet demand.

    “The current futures price of roughly $3 for natural gas is too low and a higher price will be required to incentivize drilling in non-core areas,” Ventura said. “The good news is that on an energy equivalent basis, $3 gas is equivalent to $18 per barrel oil, so there’s ample room for the price to increase without impairing its cost effectiveness.”

    Technology will play an important role in execution of the anticipated E&P activity in the United States.

    “It’s been tremendous what has happened with technology,” Hamm said. “We’re not predicting that we’ll see increases this year in the overall cost portion because we tend to offset any cost increases with additional technology efficiencies.”

    Walker said with a pro-business administration, he’s positive about the outcomes in terms of what it means for the potential of energy independence in North America.

    Regulatory woes were also an issue for many oil and gas leaders who felt overregulation kept the industry from moving forward.

    Hamm said Trump saw the energy renaissance as a driver of the American economy.

    • Joel says:

      From your article:
      “The good news is that on an energy equivalent basis, $3 gas is equivalent to $18 per barrel oil, so there’s ample room for the price to increase without impairing its cost effectiveness.”
      Up in the north heat is good, today 17F. Like the $18 equivalent, that’s cheap energy!

    • Craig Moodie says:

      Sorry you mutt! Have you ever heard of people talking up their own book?

    • greg machala says:

      “Oil, Gas CEOs Optimistic about Future of E&P in North America” – So, were the CEO’s of Lehmann brothers before is collapsed.

  7. Glenn Stehle says:

    Baker Hughes: US Oil Rig Count Rises To Most Since Sept. 2015
    http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/148814/Baker_Hughes_US_Oil_Rig_Count_Rises_To_Most_Since_Sept_2015?utm_source=DailyNewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=2017-03-10&utm_content=&utm_campaign=industry_headlines_3

    U.S. drillers added oil rigs for an eighth week in a row to the most since September 2015, extending a ten-month recovery as energy companies boost spending to take advantage of a recovery in crude prices since OPEC agreed to cut production late last year.

    Drillers added eight oil rigs in the week to March 10, bringing the total count up to 617, versus 386 rigs a year ago, energy services firm Baker Hughes Inc said on Friday…..

    The move comes as Exxon Mobil Corp., Pioneer Natural Resources Co. and others have ramped up operations in the Permian, one of the cheapest places to pump oil in the United States.

    Additionally, U.S. shale oil producers said this week at the CERAWeek conference in Houston they are plotting ambitious production growth outside the red-hot Permian, where about two-thirds of the rigs have been added over the past 10 months.

    Drillers like Hess Corp., Chesapeake Energy Corp., Continental Resources Inc and others said at the conference they were planning to expand in North Dakota, Oklahoma and other shale regions.

    Oil production in North Dakota rose 38,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 980,000 bpd in January, monthly data from the state Industrial Commission showed this week.

    U.S. crude inventories hit a record high last week, after nine straight weeks of builds, while production was projected to rise from 8.9 million bpd in 2016 to 9.2 million bpd in 2017 and a record high of 9.6 million bpd in 2018, according to federal energy data.

    Senior Saudi energy officials, however, told top independent U.S. oil firms in a closed-door meeting this week that they should not assume OPEC would extend output curbs to offset rising production from U.S. shale fields, two industry sources told Reuters.

    Saudi Arabia’s energy minister also said at CERAWeek that there would be no “free rides” for U.S. shale producers benefiting from the upturn.

    • Duncan Idaho says:

      Growth in oil rig count stalled in key LTO plays.

      US oil rig count is up 8 units, but 6 of them are in conventional basins.

      Permian: +1
      Bakken: unchanged
      Eagle Ford: -1
      Cana Woodford: -1

      Only Niobrara added 4 rigs, but oil rig count there only returned to January levels after having declined in the past 2 months.

    • greg machala says:

      “Baker Hughes: US Oil Rig Count Rises To Most Since Sept. 2015? – Amazing how that correlates with oil prices that have been slowly rising and flirting with $50 since June of last year. When the price drops again (as it already is) then oil rig count will go back down again. This cycle has been going on for years. This is not news.

  8. InAlaska says:

    Massive oil discovery in Alaska is biggest onshore find in 30 years
    http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/10/investing/alaska-oil-discovery-repsol-spain/

    • psile says:

      According to best estimates there’s around 10% of conventional oil left to discover, which would include a giant oil field or two like this one. That it was found in a remote location like the North Slope indicates that it could very well be the last such “big” field left to find, before the end of financialisation brings the oil industry and business as usual crashing down.

      If it ever makes it into production at 120k bs p/d by 2021, as forecast, the oil will just add to the sum total of the oil overproduction that’s symptomatic of the so called oil-glut. But the avenues for storage are narrowing and unless everybody suddenly can afford to burn a LOT more oil at substantial discount, and at production rates that are capped, to draw down the surplus, which is about as likely as a week with two Tuesday’s in my opinion, then I’m not sure we will get that far.

      • Joel says:

        So that 10% does not translate into decades of BAU in your opinion? Finding oil now which is 5 years away from production, may not ever make it to market !

        • psile says:

          No, because the end customer is without the means to afford more which in turn burns more oil. Hence the money printing, etc to mask that fact.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        ‘giant oil field’

        Relative to…????

        • greg machala says:

          If Gail is right (which I suspect she is) then the current “oil-glut” is not really a glut, but an oversupply of expensive oil that economies of the world can no longer afford. If that is the case then, we are facing a massive problem. It means we are out of zone where oil is both profitable to producers and affordable enough to grow the economy. If that is true then financial collapse cannot be far off.

        • psile says:

          Giant oil field => More than 500m barrels of oil in place.

    • Duncan Idaho says:

      http://www.investopedia.com/news/alaska-oil-find-small-historical-standards/
      Alaska Oil Find Small by Historical Standards | Investopedia: “Some leading oil industry observers such as IHS Markit and Rystad Energy are seeing the early warning signs of declining global oil reserves. IHS recently updated a report published last year that warns conventional oil and gas discoveries outside North America are at their lowest levels since 1952. According to IHS, 2016 marked another low, with just 8.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent discovered. Barrels of oil equivalent (boe) are a blended calculation of oil and gas measured in barrels. Rystad Energy was even more pessimistic, reporting that global oil and gas discoveries are at a 70-year low, with just 6 billion boe discovered in 2016.”

    • jeremy890 says:

      Harrah! The United States consumed about 7 Billion barrels of oil…So this find might last Joe Six Pack a couple of months…

    • i1 says:

      fake news

  9. CTG says:

    Brexit trigger likely on 14th March. USA debt ceiling and Fed rate hike on 15th March. Netherlands election 15th March. Kind of too many events happening around that time and anyone can be a potential trigger.. Interesting times indeed. https://mishtalk.com/2017/03/10/uk-likely-to-trigger-article-50-by-tuesday-juncker-hopes-uk-will-re-enter-the-boat/

    • Speaking of Brexit, lets see what happens on Monday, we already discussed it here recently, there is ongoing TPTB attack on the “hard brexit” option. So triggering the Article 50 of leaving EU and following prospect of years of negotiations mean nothing in practicality. The Dutch situation is unclear, it’s doubtful the anti systemic party can form a government.. The same in France, Germany. And so on..

      Sorry, there is a reason, why the world is what it is, namely generational know how guiding TPTBs in properly steering the events aka properly running the human farm long term. That’s not going to be altered by few elections.

      • xabier says:

        On the whole, I find ‘events’ rather disappointing: nothing much changes, and the anticipation generates too much anxiety.

        If you wish to remain sane: observe, register, and then……….ignore them!

        • Yes that’s a good advice.

          I’m not saddened from the realistically low prospect of these movements.
          Gravitating towards being sort of cycle guy, I’m of the opinion we have not seen proper “dysfunction” yet.. Lot of the trends are still only brewing up – way to go before true fruition (demographic phase shift, visible depletion spikes, political realignments, .. , debt levels beyond 500/1000% etc.)

        • Xabier. Check out the Grey Enlightenment site. he argued that there would be no changes for many years. Things are too advanced to allow for a change in today’s world.

  10. timl2k11 says:

    I was frustrated by all the misleading information on the web about rooftop grid-tied Solar PV economics, so to clear the clutter of subsidies and other nonsense I made a simple spreadsheet. I know this is not news to people here, but looks like in most cases, as I suspected, it is an energy sink (on top of being intermittent)! The calculations are simple, I have no idea how anyone thinks it is worthwhile.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LAfVhK9ixOcbx6FAUT-tN-ZiwvJJZVjPvplC1DSxlMI/edit?usp=sharing

    • I haven’t looked at your spreadsheet (yet) but have you included all of the subsidies that fossil fuel producers need, in order to operate their facilities in an inefficient manner? Nuclear power plants particularly have a problem, because they find the rates that they receive for nuclear power turn negative part of the time.

      In fact, one of the big issues is that the pricing system does not provide enough revenue to have all of the various producers operating in an inefficient manner. Somehow, the non-intermittent electricity sources need subsidies, to keep operating.

      • timl2k11 says:

        I didn’t include that because I have no way to quantify it, it would cerainly be very good to know that too. Solar PV is worse than useless!

      • timl2k11 says:

        Also taxes, as you have mentioned before.

      • hkeithhenson says:

        ” the non-intermittent electricity sources need subsidies, to keep operating.”

        It occurs to me that what we need to go with the intermittent electrical power is loads that can work with intermittent power. If wind really gets down to 2 cent per kWh, that means we could use the power to make $50/bbl synthetic oil.

        • Keith. When will your satellites be ready? If you can pull it off you will join the ranks of Edison, Alexander Graham bell and Marconi. We don’t have too much time.

          • hkeithhenson says:

            “Keith. When will your satellites be ready? If you can pull it off you will join the ranks of Edison, Alexander Graham bell and Marconi. We don’t have too much time.”

            The pacing element is finishing the Skylon design and getting them into large scale production.

            Reaction Engines estimates the cost at $15 B and 7-10 years before the first flight to orbit. If the money tap were wide open it might cut 3-4 years off the timeline. The rest of the ground pieces, runways, hangers, LOX and LH2 plants are well within what we know how to do. There are several approaches to power satellite design. It’s not obvious which works better at this point.

            Construction crew habitat is expensive, around $9 B for shielding. Space construction requires two 2000 ton tugs powered by microwave beams from two 1/10th scale special power satellites that mass around 4000 tons each. Front end cost for a pilot scale construction project runs around $100 B. That is for production of 10-12 power satellites a year. It takes several years after that to reach 300 power satellites a year, then a decade at that construction rate to displace fossil fuel. It can do this entirely on income from selling power satellites for a price that cost the utilities around 3 cents a kWh (and make a vast profit).

            It’s not obvious that power satellites are the most cost effective approach, even if they undercut coal. StratoSolar, because it has built in gravity storage, looks like it will make base load power at around 5 cents a kWh. Startup cost to build the first one is no more than a billion dollars. Nanotech based PV and highly distributed storage might come along, along with someone figuring out how to do fusion.

            There seems to be more positive outcomes possible than FE’s negative ones. How it actually works out is just a guess.

            BTW, the Edison type credit would go to Dr. Peter Glaser (RIP) who invented the idea back in 1968. My efforts have been focused on the mundane problem getting the transport cost down enough for the whole project to make economic sense.

            This is a bit out of date http://www.htyp.org/design_to_cost#Video_Animations

            Changes since the first video are to build the propulsion power satellites in LEO and push them above the space junk with chemical propulsion then self power with arcjets out to station at 18,000 km. This approach raises the chances of a hit, but constructing them where humans can work on them is probably worth it.

            There is a google group, power satellite economics, where this is being discussed.

      • psile says:

        Fossil fuels ARE the subsidy.

    • edwinlloyd says:

      The governments of the world have always distrusted their citizens with rare and dangerous materials. Serfs could carry no weapon beyond a staff. Many can now not carry a firearm or even a respectable steel blade. When fossil fuels become rare I’m sure their use will be restricted for strategic purpose. Solar generation of some electricity might then come under the category of ‘priceless’. To only compare it against our current (no pun there) standards and costs may prove wrong.

      • timl2k11 says:

        You can’t really do much with solar without the fossil fuel infrastructure to support it..

      • xabier says:

        True, but the kings of England until the 16th century made military training obligatory for all subjects from boyhood until old age, with the most deadly weapon of the time, the longbow (think AK47 of the Middle Ages). People were also compelled to buy weapons according to their social class (useful as there was a domestic iron industry!)

        However, the penalty for even laying a hand on a member of the knightly class was…..to have that hand cut off.

  11. Fast Eddy says:

    My container is located near the top of a hill — well above sea level — the party will take place as per the schedule

  12. adonis says:

    Here is a piece of evidence that the elites may have a ‘masterplan’ for the world and events seem to be heading in this direction so don’t worry we may be around for a lot longer than we think ; At the Bilderberg Conference on June 6 to 9 of this year, in Baden-Baden, Germany, David Rockefeller (a Rothschild) made the following statement,

    “We are grateful to the Washington Post, the New York Times, Time Magazine, and other great publications whose directors have attended our meetings and respected their promises of discretion for almost 40 years.

    It would have been impossible for us to develop our plan for the world, if we had been subjected to the lights of publicity during those years.

    But the world is now more sophisticated and prepared to march towards a world government. The super-national sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national auto-determination practiced in past centuries.”

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Call me crazy — but if there was a plan — would the Elders be making public statements referencing it?

      • Kurt says:

        It’s every plan for itself from here on out.

      • Duncan Idaho says:

        They are making it up as they go like everyone else.

        • A Real Black Person says:

          There a consistency to the plans they’ve shared
          They think the solution to every problem is more complexity.
          More social complexity, (world government, credentialism, )
          more technological complexity (green energy, IOT, 3D-printing)

          They are terrified, and perhaps justifiably so, of any reduction in complexity on a subconscious level. That is why they are worried about nationalism more than terrorism (so. Terrorism doesn’t seem to bother the elite one bit because I think it’s something they feel like they can control.)

          • Joebanana says:

            ARBP-
            Spot on. Nationalism is far more worrisome to the powers that be. Terrorism is used to control us and the perfect tool for it.

            Globalism is just another term for the growth of complexity. One of the worst roads we could have travelled down and has become a one way street to hell.

      • adonis says:

        wasn’t a public statement , Content from external source
        “That statement and other remarks from the Bilderberg meeting were obtained by French intelligence agents, who were tasked with monitoring the gathering, because of the obvious implications for French national interests and security. The information was then leaked to two French publications. Hilaire du Berrier, a contributing editor to The New American, verified the authenticity of the reports through his friend, former head of French intelligence, Count Alexander de Marenches, and other sources, and provided the first account in English in his Monaco-based monthly HduB Reports in September 1991. It was then published shortly thereafter in The New American.”

        • Fast Eddy says:

          French intelligent agents monitoring some of the most secret meetings on the planet — involving the minions of the Elders….

          And the French just leaked all of this info…

          I suppose if you want people to believe in a leak this would be a nice way to present it so that people believe it

          Or maybe this is just completely made up…. sounds a bit James Bondish to me….

          • doomphd says:

            lots of oxymorons being bandied about: French intelligence, intellectual elite and world bankers…

          • Well, perhaps hard to believe it today.

            But the French had pretty good run of attempted quasi independence and doze of originality even after the WWII, the president de Gaul survived US sponsored assassination attempt/s, on the European realm they had the largest nuclear program both militarily and in power plants, first fast train network, precursor for the internet (dial up BBS system), and many other goodies in industries, culture, ..

            But drip but drip, they lost most of it. Perhaps the latest lukewarm nationalist as a head of state was Chirac, and it went very downhill since. The current establishment is a bunch of 3rd-4th class disgusting jello nobodies in comparison to preceding generations.

            • The French should have thrown the Towel at verdun in 1916 but it fought on. All the good ones died, replaced by those who had no feelings for France like Sarkozy or Strauss-Khan.

              Europe is dead. No one can revive it. F’k Chuck Fitzclarence.

          • SunGod says:

            Well this is a complete wild ass guess. The elites want people to know. Painting a Picasso and leaving it in your basement is not much fun. Having someone under your control when they don’t know they are under your control is not a true expression of power.

            Why building 7? The towers were hit by planes. No one would have raised any questions except a 36 story building not hit by planes and not hit by any substantial debris fell straight down through the path of most resistance through thousands of tons of structural steel.

            Even NIST has said that is impossible. Who cares? No one.

            They want people to know. They want the world to know. They wield power. Their control of the media is absolute. Any cockamamie story they invent becomes truth. Power by deception is not truly satisfying. If you could lose power by people learning the truth that would not be real power. They rule from the shadows but they want people to know.

            Building 7 was brought down so the world would know their power. Not much fun wielding power if everyone actually believes your cockamamie story that it was some nutcases living in caves. Not much fun if everyone believes that a nutcase living in a cave painted your Picasso.

            They want acknowledgment just like everyone else and they want true in your face power.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I doubt the Elders care what the feeders know or don’t know … if anything I could see them mocking the goy (cattle) at times…. then sitting around saying ‘look at stupid these F98866ers are!’

              The only plan there is would be the one we are seeing played out now — keep BAU going for as long as possible doing whatever it takes.

              The Elders are not gods — they are governed by the rules of physics – like all other animals

              If there were some other way — why would they bother to keep us alive — why pave over the planet? Why didnt they just roll the plan out decades ago?

              We are out of cheap oil — nobody can do anything about that – world government is bullshit — we can’t even hold the EU together! And even if it were possible how does change the fact that to have anything but the most primitive civilization — we need fossil fuels?

      • jerry says:

        O but there is a plan a very big plan https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLoBPAr0oTc

    • World government? When people are voting for Brexit and Trump? These folks are sort of confused.

      • adonis says:

        gail if they know what we know maybe a world government is on the cards and a whole lot more brexit and trump may be part of the plan

    • They could not stop Trump last year. I think that’s Peak-Bilderberg.

  13. Do I read it correctly that Berman expects from now ~1year long process of burning through today’s excessive stockpiles of crude with the price eventually growing towards ~ $70 again?
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-10/oil-price-plunge-turning-point

    Apart from the crude situation, that’s basically a rehash of the reflation scenario or plateau at least till Q3/2017 or later, only then the situation allows for some serious crash-correction.
    That’s hard to believe, since the CBs are not nakedly printing/pumping that much for sustaining 6x months (or more) of additional levitation.

  14. Fast Eddy says:

    The Death of the Great Bakken Oil Field has begun and very few Americans understand the significance. Just a few years ago, the U.S. Energy Industry and Mainstream media were gloating that the United States was on its way to “Energy Independence.”

    Unfortunately for most Americans, they believed the hype and are now back to driving BIG SUV’s and trucks that get lousy fuel mileage. And why not? Americans now think the price of gasoline will continue to decline because the U.S. oil industry is able to produce its “supposed” massive shale oil reserves for a fraction of the cost, due to the new wonders of technological improvement.

    I actually hear this all the time when I travel and talk to family, friends and strangers. I gather they have no clue that the Great Bakken Oil Field is now down a stunning 25% from its peak in just a little more than a year and half ago:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-17/death-bakken-field-has-begun-big-trouble-us

    • edwinlloyd says:

      It seems to me that most Americans plan ahead with the same forethought as a 3 year ild child. They think nothing of taking on a 6 year debt payment for an oversized vehicle that guzzles gasoline by looking at the price of gas on the way to the car dealer. They are much more interested in the weather forecast.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        They – like the rest of the sheeple on the planet — do exactly what Edward Bernays and Don Draper tell them to do — read what they are told to read – believe what they are told to believe — eat what they are told to eat — buy what they are told to buy

        They are not much different than cows….

        • Kurt says:

          Trust me, they don’t read.

        • i1 says:

          They’ll trade silver for a hershey bar, I’ve seen it.

        • They are not much different than cows….

          I had an interesting conversation along these lines with a guy at work this week. Normally I keep my thoughts to myself but I mentioned to him the ABC article on the South China seas & how any tension there could effect Australia’s energy security.

          He actually listened as I told him about how we are at the mercy of unhindered free access to the Strait of Malacca. I did all the basics of how everything’s made of oil & even my basic (& it is basic compared to the knowledge here) of finance.
          He brought up Tesla cars (we are in the auto trade) & I went on to explain how any renewable’s are extensions of fossil fuels blah blah blah. He actually sounded like he was getting the basics of the dire situation.

          After that he went back to work & never mentioned a thing again until he told me he was buying a house on the north coast of New South Wales where he was born & is hoping to rent it out until he’s ready to move there himself.
          He’s in his 40’s same as me & is still clinging to the prospect that he will have a pension when he retires, even a self funded one.

          I guess ignorance is bliss.

          I’ve long since past that point & like FE with his rock cutting I’ve picked the tree on my property I’m going to dangle from when the time comes & the Crow’s, Wedge-Tailed Eagles & wild pigs can recycle me……………………

          There’s a certain contentment in this knowledge that few people are even remotely capable of mustering.
          When one is aware of our predicament the statement of “What could possibly go wrong” losses it’s sting when it inevitably does & the End of World party gets into full swing…………

          Deck chairs outside the ASX to watch the jumpers…………………….

          • I wanted to add to this that there is a reason each of us writes here & a way we got here, something that went click in the head, heart, soul, whatever……..
            I’m trying to work out in my mind why folk here mostly see what’s on the horizon but few others do.
            I’m interested as to why anyone reading this is here. I’m guessing it’s got to be a psychological thing or perhaps a spiritual thing…………………?

            My own realization comes from a deep reverence for the Universe & how one species can believe it’s so special it can do whatever it wants without repercussion.

            When you leave this anthropocentric mindset to continue & fester over time something must give………………These consequences are now beginning to manifest…………..

            I’m not an engineer, mathematician nor University Scholar.

            I left school at 16 to become a motor mechanic……………………………..I’m flat out doing calculations without a calculator so if a dill like me can figure out what’s happening what does this say about the academics in this society………………………………?

            Thank you for your time.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I’m here to analyse and witness the most important event in the history of man. Fascinating stuff.

            • Joebanana says:

              Brendon-
              I ended up here because when I get interested in something I go all in to learn about it. Once I became interested in finance, and how the economy worked, it was perfectly natural to end up here since finance so quickly leads to energy for anyone who wants to know how it works.

              I don’t look at humans as all bad but subject to concupiscence. It is why I cannot really fault people who do not see what is going on. This subject is a process of discovery, and a very painful one.

              I’m no brainiac either, Brendon. Just a blue collar guy like yourself trying to figure out what the hell is going on in the world.

            • hkeithhenson says:

              “there is a reason each of us writes here”

              I was once lambasted by a federal judge for stating what motivates humans beyond immediate need.

              It’s status seeking.

              This makes sense in evolutionary terms because human males needed some degree of status to attract females when we were all hunter-gatherers. It’s not a bad motive. Acting in ways that get you recognition and positive feedback from others lies behind an awful lot of cultural and scientific advances.

              Of course, posting on the net is not as likely to get you extra nooky as dragging back a large chunk of meat did in the stone age. 🙂

          • xabier says:

            Possibly the best approach psychologically is to realise, and accept, that everything HAS gone wrong already.

            This is extraordinarily calming, at least in my experience.

          • Joel says:

            Glad I’m at 60 not 40, in our information age it must be tough for the young, the info is out there hard to miss. Future outlook poor, timing unknown, population over shoot, and what if anything would resolve this ?

            Not to mention the gloomy topic of discussion, whats a doomer to do, update a wiki site.
            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomer

            As I did the concern thing on peak oil the 1st time around, I should be in recovery by now or at least informed. Then there are the prophets…
            Special Report: The Prophets of Doom
            http://www.outsiderclub.com/report/the-prophets-of-doom/825

            • All these prophets are men, who work in the investment industry. It is possible to make money on falling prices, with some of today’s portfolios.

      • Joebanana says:

        Canadian are no different. There are 9 year payment plans for cars here.

  15. edwinlloyd says:

    I’m not enough of a data hound to know, so I’ll ask. Where, if anywhere, can I go to get info accurately tracking EROEI for all fuels over the last 10 years. It would be an average of current production and new finds. I’d love to see even some trys at that info. Thanks.

    • Duncan Idaho says:

      It is in constant change as resources decline, and the energy costs of extraction usually go up.
      http://peakoilbarrel.com/ is a great source for oil, as you are dealing with engineers actually drilling and selling oil.

  16. Duncan Idaho says:

    Growth in oil rig count stalled in key LTO plays.

    US oil rig count is up 8 units, but 6 of them are in conventional basins.

    Permian: +1
    Bakken: unchanged
    Eagle Ford: -1
    Cana Woodford: -1

    Only Niobrara added 4 rigs, but oil rig count there only returned to January levels after having declined in the past 2 months.

  17. Bergen Johnson says:

    http://bgr.com/2017/03/10/elon-musk-australia-mike-cannon-brookes/

    Elon Musk to Australia’s rescue with battery storage, available for peak demand to eliminate black outs.

  18. Joel says:

    Not sure what going on here, no longer watch TV/news.
    Live News video
    Huge Protests in South Korea After Impeachment
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUIXdVxLQ3Q

    Not everyone seems happy here, population density must be high to get these kind of crowds!

    • Joel says:

      Sorry, not Live my bad, just politics gone wrong

    • People are strange, why on Earth would you enter such a melee as that ~70+ yrs old senior who died there for nothing? I know almost nothing about the Korean history, but from the articles it seems people are agitated about some old grievances of past regimes and current corruption case..

    • I read an article about life expectancy for women in South Korea being the highest in the world–over 90–in some recent study, surpassing Japan.

      I have an expectation about what a society with a very long life expectance must look like. It is hard to believe that such a country can have very much discord of this kind taking place. Or perhaps it can.

      • The older people are crowding out younger people’s positions while the burden of supporting them is reaching intolerable levels in a country with fewer jobs for the young. The younger people are trying to leave it if they can.

        About 1.02 million babies were born in 1971. Less than 400,000 babies were born in 2016 and about 10% of them had foreign (mostly Southeast Asian) mothers. A disaster in the making.

      • Joel says:

        Peak life expectancy may well be upon us, your comment made me think of India so I checked, some progress has been made.
        http://www.bbc.com/news/business-24490252
        “India is home to an estimated 40 million widows – approximately 10% of all women.
        Ageing women are more vulnerable than men. Without any financial security or welfare infrastructure, many of them are abandoned in Vrindavan- where they live off charity while they wait to die.”
        Though old 2012 news, I see the cutoff shown below is 60, the above is a 2013 article which may paint the picture. Maybe SK can do much better.
        http://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/monthly-pension-of-widows-abandoned-women-increased-17025.html
        “New Delhi, Jul 16: Delhi government today decided to increase the monthly pension to Rs 1,500 from Rs 1,000 for widows, divorced, separated, abandoned and destitute women from economically weaker section.
        Officials said the beneficiary should be a resident of Delhi for more than five years and her age should be between 18 to 60 years.”

  19. Duncan Idaho says:

    Based on the most recent four week running average EIA data, the US was dependent on net crude oil imports for about half (47%) of the Crude + Condensate (C+C) inputs into US refineries (and of course, what the EIA calls “Crude oil” is actually C+C).

    In regard to net total liquids imports into the US, the EIA has updated the Annual Energy Review through 2016. Here’s the PDF link:

    http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec3_3.pdf

    Note that US net imports (total liquids, inclusive of refinery gains and biofuels) fell for 10 straight years, down from 12.5 million bpd in 2005 to 4.7 million bpd in 2015, a decline of 7.8 million bpd.

    However, for the first time since 2005, US net imports rose slightly in 2016, up from 4.7 million bpd in 2015 to 4.9 million bpd in 2016. Note that this is the first time since the pre-2005 time period that US and Chindia net imports both increased.

    Speaking of Chindia’s Net Imports (CNI), their net imports of total petroleum liquids (not quite the same metric as US total liquids imports) rose from 5.1 million bpd in 2005 to 10.9 million bpd in 2015 (BP). Note that the decline in US total liquids net imports exceeded the increase in CNI from 2005 to 2015.

    Arguably, the world economy would have been in a world of hurt if had not been for the very large decline in the US demand for Global Net Exports of oil (GNE) from 2005 to 2015. Of course, the challenge facing US producers going forward is the huge increase in volumetric decline in production from existing wells.

    Assuming about a 5%/year rate of decline in existing US C+C production in 2008 and assuming about a 15%/year rate of decline in existing production currently, the US only had to offset a volumetric decline of about 0.25 million bpd per year in existing C+C production in 2008, versus about 1.4 million bpd per year decline in existing production now.
    -Brown

    (we are importing more oil into the US currently)

    • Euan’s sounded pretty dismissive about (always) delayed Peak Oil, but in the comments agreed with Brown in general. People are just tired (and bored) of rapid scenarios.
      Most of us here would behave differently should it be known, say in mid 2000s, that ~20T deficits and 100T liabilities will constitute a new normal..

      • Fast Eddy says:

        If I thought we could get to the mid 2000’s I wouldn’t be here.

        • Sorry, I perhaps badly wrote that sentence. What I meant is simply, should I know around the years ~2003-2005 (Peakoil/FW getting prominence again after few decades of calm) that such craziness like ~20T/100T debt would be completely normal base case scenario a decade later, history (personal) would went different route..

          Therefore, I still do maintain we are not through all the craziness, whatever yet unimaginable levels and forms it could master in the near future. So, in the language of the “4th turning guys” we are now just barely starting this decades long process of realignment to very different reality.

    • InAlaska says:

      “Some 1.2 billion barrels of oil have been discovered in Alaska, marking the biggest onshore discovery in the U.S. in three decades.”
      http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/10/investing/alaska-oil-discovery-repsol-spain/

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Excellent — BAU gets extended by 12 days —- if we make it to the point where that oil actually emerges from the ground.

        Wonderful news!

  20. Duncan Idaho says:

    “The model shows that global oil exports peaked in 2006 at 37.87 Mbpd. They have since fallen very slowly to stand at 37.07 Mbpd in 2015, the last year for which we have data. Exports have effectively been on a plateau since 2005. What this means is that much of the production growth seen in the exporting countries has been swallowed by consumption growth in these same countries. “

    • Bergen Johnson says:

      True, but there’s also been a huge increase in US & Canadian oil production, albeit non-conventional, which has reduced their imports, in turn reducing other oil producing countries exports.

  21. Duncan Idaho says:

    OPEC CUT 40 PERCENT MORE IN FEBRUARY THAN PLEDGED IN OIL DEAL: KUWAIT

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-energy-opec-cuts-idUSKBN16F24K

    “Kuwait Oil Minister Essam Al-Marzouq said on Wednesday that OPEC’s compliance with an oil output cut reached last year stood at 140 percent in February, while non-OPEC members compliance was 50-60 percent.”

    Doesn’t Russian output usually have a significant drop in February? I’m not sure why it happens but can remember the pattern looking like that.

    Bonga is offline in Nigeria for up to 6 weeks so another 200,000 bpd will come off March figures for OPEC, but Angola is likely to show a significant increase.

  22. grayfox says:

    About recycling:
    Ideally, everything that we use would be easily recycled. All products and packaging would be biodegradable. Before the industrial revolution this was pretty much the case. In some remote places in the world you can still see people live this way.
    Plastics are particularly troublesome. Its best to avoid using them as much as possible. An example of an effort to ban some plastic packaging currently being made in my locale:
    https://sites.google.com/riverkeeper.org/albanyfoamban/home

    When industrial civilization runs its course we (whoever is alive) may see a natural, involuntary return to a zero waste “lifestyle”.

    • edwinlloyd says:

      Has the per acre price of landfills started rising yet? The mining of the future will be there. Humans are best at taking concentrated commodities and dispersing them all over the world. The landfills of today are places of concentrated ‘junk’ from overabundant energy. In tomorrow’s world they will be mined. We already do it with big items like cars and airplanes. Our children’s children will be mining for lawnmower and patio funiture parts. Another big item area will be abandoned shopping malls. There is a lot of steel there along with copper wiring.

      • have you ever dug up an old tin can?

        after a year or two the most you find is the ring from the top and bottom–after 5/10 years nothing at all.

        Even if stuff is found and dug up you need heat application to make it into something else. An old abandoned car junkyard for instance

        Sorry, dump mining is an old myth—nothing there.

        • Artleads says:

          But paper may be different. I’ve read of excavated phone books, buried for 50 years, being still readable. The concentration with which some landfil items are grouped might help prevent decay. And rusted items could have benefits for soil creation.

          • ive burned old phonebooks on a garden bonfire—then found days later only the outer leaves were burnt

            something bulky like that protects itself, but it’s still unusable in any other physical sense.

            to repulp paper you still need machinery of some kind—unless you’re prepared to mush it up by hand to make papier-mache. (which is what machinery does anyway)

            i cant think of any real use for that because it has no working strength

            basically dumps have fibrous material, metal material and plastic material, Plus maybe a few odds and ends I can’t think of.
            So any salvage has got to be of those 3 materials.

            • xabier says:

              The most significant instance of recycling, historically, must be the stones of Roman and Greek buildings during the Middle Ages?

              Already hewn and finished, just needed to be moved a short way – although I believe some columns were traded at greater distances.

              I suppose someone might dig up an old plastic bowl and reuse it. maybe as a hat for a tribal chief or the shaman. Although I suspect by then flayed human skins might be in fashion…..

            • our brave new world is going to need creativity

            • Fast Eddy says:

              We should smash all bottles asap

            • Quite a bit of the Great Wall of China has been recycled too, I believe.

            • Joebanana says:

              Fast Eddy will know who I am talking about, but in the book about the life of Stompin’ Tom Conner’s he used the scrotum of a bull for a hat when he was a lad.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Sudbury Saturday Night….

          • xabier says:

            Papier mache could be used to create cargo-cult versions of bank ATM’s and solar panels. maybe even a Mars Mission rocket ship or two…..

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Recycling takes energy

        • wait till humanity reaches the stage of mining landfills created from the junk that resulted from mining landfills that were created by dumping the junk that was created by mining the landfills that was created by………….

          aaaaarrrrrggggghhhhhhhhhh

          …………..—they’re coming to take me awayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Classic….

  23. Jeffrey Brown (commented at Euan’s) still maintains we are on the path of no net exports by ~2040. My addendum, obviously in the real world, if the model is generally correct should be preceded by ~10-15yrs of some geopolitical action. So, we are again at the ~2020-25 time frame for some visible sparks..
    http://euanmearns.com/peak-oil-exports/#comments

    • Duncan Idaho says:

      Actually, if you read the article, exports stopped increasing in 2006.
      That may be it.

      • Bouncing and bumpy plateau reached, possibly.

        But as we have just experienced the power of print-debt and msm indoctrination is so pervasive, the situation doesn’t turn on a dime. Also that recently linked security study on China reveals, they are now in a position to choose between ongoing systemic support or taking a step into dark – going solo by co-destroying the system they have been using to their advantage for past ~50yrs. Decisions, decisions,..

        Some critical threshold must be reached first.
        Gail thinks about break up in derivatives and so on first, others predict something more of material nature, e.g. unexpected depletion spike, war, geopolitical shift etc.

        • Duncan Idaho says:

          If Brown’s ELM is correct (and it seems rock solid), exported oil will not exceed 2006.
          Proof will be in the near future.

    • I wouldn’t hold my breath for anything to happen in 2040.

      I notice from the post and attachment that someone who appears to be Euan Mearns’ son has a degree in renewables for marine use. He is currently looking for a job. For now, he is helping with making nice looking graphs. At $50 per barrel, I would not hold out a lot of hope for projects making current or tidal renewable devices.

      • Duncan Idaho says:

        Tide has never worked for long.
        And Euan is a climate change denier.
        I take his analysis with a gran of salt.

      • Joebanana says:

        I can’t remember how much the thing weighs but we just dropped a big tidal turbine into the Bay of Fundy for testing. $300 a megawatt is the feed in tariff for the power produced.

        • LOL! Salt water means the life expectancy of these things is very short also.

          I read Euan’s posts, but I doubt he reads mine. Maybe if he understood how things worked, he would have counseled his son differently on a career choice. (Or maybe it wouldn’t have made any difference.)

  24. Joel says:

    Looks like OPEC needs to re-group, control of production just not there.
    “A slump below last November’s price levels would be the last thing OPEC planned for when it agreed to cut supply. This week’s price drop represents “the first proper challenge to OPEC and its resolve to cut production,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank.”
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-09/opec-deal-faces-litmus-test-as-oil-price-indicators-point-south
    Not a lot of interest in leaving it in the ground, will be interesting to watch I guess!

    • Kurt says:

      I think the Saudis are running out of options. I predict they will ramp up. Price will go down but they might gain more control over the market again. Hard to say. Either way, they are rapidly running out of cold hard cash. There’s just no way they can get the price up to 80 so now what???

      • Joel says:

        I thought they would be pumping water by now, my thinking 15+ years ago, no clue here on timing.

      • They are not hat stupid. They learned the hard way and know shale is propped up by FED/petrodollar regime. So should they allow drop of pricing even into ~ $30, not much happens to shale near term..

        So, the ruling faction could do nothing about the policy and just simply escape into exile and hope for respite with lot of money, and it’s someone’s else problem without solution to deal with.

        Or another possibility, perhaps the most likely, at some junction they will have to resort into asymmetric response anyway, i.e. most likely either stir some new war in the region or renounce the friendship/protection of the US. Which is not that much easy anyway nowadays, since the Chinese must know there is not enough exportable oil left anyway for such gambit.

  25. Glenn Stehle says:

    Exclusive – Saudis tell U.S. oil: OPEC won’t extend cuts to offset shale – sources
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ceraweek-saudi-shale-idUSKBN16G2TJ

    Senior Saudi energy officials told top independent U.S. oil firms in a closed-door meeting this week that they should not assume OPEC would extend output curbs to offset rising production from U.S. shale fields, two industry sources told Reuters on Thursday.

    Oil producers led by Saudi Arabia and top non-OPEC exporter Russia are in an uneasy truce with U.S. shale firms after a two-year price war that sent many shale producers to the wall. The Saudis and Russia led a deal to curb output in late 2016 to end a global supply glut that pushed oil prices to a 12-year low.

    The resulting rise in oil prices has sparked a rush of new output by shale producers, who this week outlined ambitious production growth plans across the United States.

    “One of the advisors said that OPEC would not take the hit for the rise in U.S. shale production,” a U.S. executive who was at the meeting told Reuters. “He said we and other shale producers should not automatically assume OPEC will extend the cuts.”

    The meeting came after OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo met hedge funds and shale producers in Houston earlier in the week, seeking to widen talks on how to tame the global glut.

    On Wednesday, oil prices plunged 5 percent to lowest levels this year after U.S. crude inventories surged to a record high, in part because of rising output from shale producers. The price continued to fall on Thursday.

    • Joel says:

      Where will it all go, I thought storage was kind of full? Not looking great for that Saudi IPO, not that I was watching maybe it already happened.

  26. MG says:

    The declining incomes of the workforce and the benefits paid by the state make the care for the elderly more and more difficult. The Slovak women caring for the elderly in Austria could lose their last benefit: children’s allowance for immigrant workers. The result would be that there may be lack of workforce to care for the elderly in Austria…

    https://ekonomika.sme.sk/c/20478264/opatrovatelka-v-rakusku-ak-mi-zoberu-pridavky-zarobim-tolko-ako-na-slovensku.html

    • Hunter-gatherers and quite a few societies since then have simply kicked out people who were no longer able to contribute. That idea is totally foreign to us, because we have always had resources to at least somewhat take care of the elderly.

      I remember a few years ago that there were stories about families dropping off Grandma or Grandpa at the Emergency Room, and simply disappearing. I suppose that this is one way people have found to solve the problem.

      • it’s something we all joke about

        but every last breath saved, whether very young or very old or somewhere in between is a drain on collective resources
        a society with enormous surplus energy resources can afford it, without surplus it becomes unaffordable.

        we are intended to bring our offspring to maturity–then help for a few years, then depart to make living room

        not advocating euthanasia here–just presenting facts as they stand

      • Joel says:

        Having been involved with taking care of parent with alzheimer’s disease can really take it’s toll, on the primary care person. The modern world isn’t kind to someone with this disease a small family farm of the past would have been far better.
        The alzheimer’s disease incidence rate is going up too, not great news: http://www.strategicallyspeaking.com/register/AD2/monograph/index.html
        http://www.strategicallyspeaking.com/register/AD2/monograph/index_files/image001.jpg

        • maybe the ideal is an 87 yr old guy , —couple of miles from me here–went to collect his new car 3 weeks ago,
          driving home, had a heart attack drove the car through the hedge and died.

          no one hurt—just shuffled off this mortal coil.

          • Joel says:

            Planned on a design goal of 55 with early self imposed retirement at 35. Worked until 43 now 60, 87 too old for me, but see it as possible now. I sort have gotten a wake up call on this life expectancy thing. A little late to re-think the plan, with global doom ahead who know’s ?

      • DJ says:

        I can imagine HG had to do something uncivilised with disabled. But plain old? Next winter they die of starvation and/or pneumonia.

        This scandinavian practice is a myth https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ättestupa

      • A modern style of the Korean-style funeral is Koreans (and some other Asians) traveling with some primitive country with their parents, and dump them at there. Usually the parents don’t return and never heard again.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          So how does it work …. the family says ‘hey Granny — let’s go for a Sunday drive’ And Granny shuffles into the back seat ….

          Look Granny – isn’t that a fantastic view! Granny peers out the window at the valley view …. Pappa hits the pedal and the car speeds up to 100km per hour…. son in law bob reaches over and flicks the door handle — then gives Granny a hard shove….

          The family cheers…. they put on some k-pop… and head off for kimchi buffet….

    • The Koreans had a great idea – the Goryeojang (Korean-style Funeral), in which the elderly was just dumped to the mountain to die.

  27. Glenn Stehle says:

    Whoa!

    Shale is takig names and kicking ass. This is what people in the industry are worried about, that another new flood of shale oil production could inundate the market with oil and crater prices again.

    US Oil Production Forecasts Revised Higher
    http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?hpf=1&a_id=148793&utm_source=DailyNewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=2017-03-09&utm_content=&utm_campaign=feature_2

    Crude production is expected to reach 9.53 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2017, according to the latest forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

    Forecast output for December 2017 has been revised up from 8.29 million bpd when the agency prepared its predictions in March last year (http://tmsnrt.rs/2moZoqc).

    The forecasts are contained in the “Short-Term Energy Outlook” EIA publishes every month. Forecast output has been revised higher every month since September 2016.

    Revisions are concentrated in output from the Lower 48 states, excluding federal waters in the Gulf of Mexico, so they are mostly about shale output, rather than offshore fields and Alaska (http://tmsnrt.rs/2moXWnN).

  28. China might well start acting before their demographic crisis kick in full swing.
    (That’s the window we discussed here as taking place sooner than ~2025-35)

    Establishment advisor offers similar perspective (bottom of the interview):
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-09/china-superpower-they-will-not-be-humiliated-again

  29. Fast Eddy says:

    India: The Burning City

    We investigate how an underground fire that has been burning for 100 years has led to one of India’s largest land grabs.

    Underground fires have been burning for more than a century beneath India’s largest coalfield, but in recent decades open-cast mining has brought the flames to the surface with devastating consequences for the local population.

    As communities are destroyed and thousands suffer from toxic fumes, what lies behind this human and environmental disaster?

    Filmmakers Gautam Singh and Dom Rotheroe went to find out.

    The devastating impact of coal mining

    After the US and China, India is currently the world’s third-largest energy consumer; a position that is set to consolidate in coming years as economic development, urbanisation, improved electricity access, and an expanding manufacturing base all add to demand.

    Right now much of those energy needs – up to two thirds of all electricity generated – are being met by domestically produced coal, of which India has abundant reserves.

    A significant proportion of that production comes from the Jharia mines in Jharkhand state in the east of the country, which are also India’s primary source of coking coal, an essential ingredient in steel production.

    But the Jharia coalfields, which cover some 270sq km around the city bearing the same name, also pose a dreadful environmental and health challenge for hundreds of thousands of local inhabitants.

    http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/peopleandpower/2016/07/india-burning-city-160711081146127.html

    It really doesnt get much better than this ….. this is the pinnacle…. very VERY impressive!

    http://www.aljazeera.com/mritems/Images/2016/7/11/418f8db25e34495487f277ba838534e3_18.jpg

  30. MG says:

    Small hydropower plants recently built in Slovakia are just a way how to spend EU money…

    https://domov.sme.sk/c/20479440/ako-sa-zaraba-na-vodnych-elektrarnach.html?ref=trz

    https://spectator.sme.sk/c/20479110/slovak-hydropower-plants-circumvented-rules.html

    …as they make no difference, as regards the energy supply and create additional environmental problems…

    • MG says:

      “Some – like the one in Nový Tekov – lack the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and, in general, the approval and licensing process was fast-tracked and too hasty most of the time. Thus, even the environmentalists failed to notice and warn that the small Nový Tekov plant is already the third one on a ten kilometre stretch of the Hron river – which, moreover, contains radioactive tritium from the nearby Mochovce nuclear power plant. Too many power plants in close proximity prevents dangerous waste liquids from diluting.”

  31. jeremy890 says:

    Seems we are past the point of no return…looking in the rear view mirror

    this presentation focuses on what appears to be the start of runaway warming in the Arctic that will very likely have profound effects on global climates over the next few years; and a plausible cause – the warming driven release of methane gas from permafrost forming a strong greenhouse cap over the Arctic Ocean. Evidence shows that over the last few years winter cooling over the Arctic Ocean has been significantly retarded when the sun is below the horizon for months, and heat absorbed over summers with 24 hour daylight should be radiating away to outer space. During the late autumn and winter over the last two to three years, monthly average temperatures over large areas of the Arctic Ocean have been 20​+ °C!! hotter than the 1989-2000 baseline averages for the same months.
    The observations summarized here are based on many millions of data points covering the entirety of the satellite era, beginning in 1979. To encapsulate summaries with the minimum of text and numeric data, I have used a number of animated maps where primary data is encoded in color. Changes in this data over time intervals ranging from days to months and years are shown as a stack of gif images forming short movies.
    To me, in addition to a continuing rise in arctic temperatures, the most conspicuous indication that we may have passed a tipping point where arctic warming is increasing at an ever faster rate as shown by the graph below. This depicts changes in the areas (extents) covered by sea ice on the whole planet. Over the last 5 months the area of the globe covered by sea ice has been by far the lowest it has ever been in the satellite era for this time of year and since about 7 January 2017 it has been the lowest ever reported for anytime of year since 1978 – a month earlier than the usual lowest point in the yearly variation in this measure.
    Now…read this..
    THIS THE START OF RUNAWAY GLOBAL WARMING?
    William P Hall (PhD)
    President, Kororoit Institute
    Evolutionary Biology of Species and Organisms
    Draft – 08-03-2017
    http://www.orgs-evolution-k
    My conclusion from what appears to be undeniable evidence is that we have already passed the tipping point where we had any hope of stopping warming at 2 or even 3 °C, and urgently need to focus on greatly improving our scientific understanding and learning learning how to live with and survive decades of rapid heating, and to develop global geoengineering tools to actively remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere before most life on the planet (including ourselves) is exterminated heat stroke and starvation in collapsing ecosystems

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Alaska’s Big Problem With Warmer Winters

      Juneau has no plan, little money for erosion or thawing permafrost.

      The wind that comes off the mountains across Cook Inlet in southern Alaska still feels plenty cold in February. But lately it’s not quite cold enough. From 1932 to 2017, the daily minimum temperature in Homer, a city on the eastern shore of the inlet, averaged 19F in February. Narrow that to the past 10 years and the average rises to 21F; for the past five years, 25F.

      Last February, Homer’s daily low averaged 30F—just two degrees colder than in Washington, D.C., 1,200 miles closer to the Equator.

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-09/alaska-s-big-problem-with-warmer-winters

    • i1 says:

      “develop global geoengineering tools to actively remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere ”

      classic DAU

    • Joel says:

      jeremy,
      The 20 footer is too small, pictorial included for reference on the old design, the sheep need room…
      2090 is a long way off, plenty of time to re-think the boat plans
      https://assets.answersingenesis.org/img/articles/2016/08/hagopian-lee-painting.jpg
      “The discovery of Noah’s Ark would be an unparalleled archaeological find.”
      https://answersingenesis.org/noahs-ark/noahs-ark-found/has-ark-been-found/

      • jeremy890 says:

        It gets even BETTER, Joel, in Bible belt Kentucky a actual replica of the Noah’s Ark has been created to PROVE the Bible is true word of God! All Fast Eddy needs to do now is grow a long white beard wearing a sheet gown with a rope belt holding a staff!
        https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uTbBuN3dP2I

        There you go…a NEW chapter of the Bible….Theme park verse one

      • stop worrying

        they’re building an island in the North Sea
        https://uk.news.yahoo.com/artificial-north-sea-island-danish-121745204.html

      • jerry says:

        One doesn’t need to travel to Mount Ararat to find the truth but to Swan Quarter, North Carolina.

        “There are only two possible explanations for what you are about to read. It was either the most phenomenal coincidence that ever occurred-or it was an act of God.
        Literally!
        And remember, as you learn what happened on that rainy Thursday afternoon a hundred summers ago, that a stack of sworn statements and legal documents say that it was so.
        There was just one problem with Swan Quarter, North Carolina. It was lowland, so naturally the choicest real estate was on the highest ground. In the event of a heavy rain, the closer you were to sea level, the harder you were hit.
        A little more than a hundred years ago the Methodists of Swan Quarter, North Carolina had no church, and the only lot available on which to build one was a plot of low-lying property on Oyster Creek Road.
        It was far from an ideal location, but they acquired the land and construction began.
        The church was to be white frame, small but sturdy, propped up on brick pilings. In 1876 the building was completed and on Sunday, September 16, a joyous dedication ceremony was celebrated.
        That was Sunday, September 16.
        Three days later, on Wednesday, a terrible storm lashed Swan Quarter. All day the wind howled and the rain came down in a gray wall of water.
        By nightfall, devastation.
        Much of the town was flooded; many roofs were ripped from homes by the cyclonic turbulence. The storm raged on all through the night and into the bleak morning.
        By Thursday afternoon the wind subsided, the rain all but stopped. For the first time in more than a day, there was an almost eerie calm. One by one the citizens of Swan Quarter threw back the shutters and peered from what was left of their homes.
        Most saw only a desolate waterscape, a community ravaged by nature. But those within sight of Oyster Creek Road beheld the most incredible sight they had ever seen.
        The church-the Swan Quarter Methodist Church-the whole building, intact-was floating down the street! The floodwaters had gently lifted the entire structure from the brick pilings on which it had rested and had sent it off, slowly, silently, down Oyster Creek Road.
        Within minutes, several concerned townsfolk were sloshing about in the street, waist-deep, fighting the rushing current, trying desperately to reach the still moving church so that they could moor it with lengths of rope.
        The ropes were fastened, but the effort was in vain. There was no stable structure secure enough to restrain the floating chapel.
        And as the building passed by, more attention was attracted, more aid was enlisted. To no avail. The church moved on.
        By now the building had made it to the center of town, still on Oyster Creek Road. Then as dozens, amazed, helpless, watched, the Swan Quarter Methodist Church, still floating, made a sharp inexplicable right turn and continued down that road, as though the chapel were alive-as though it had a mind of its own.
        For two more blocks the townspeople fought the ropes to hold it back, unsuccessfully. And then, in the same decisive manner with which it had moved, the church veered off the road, headed for the center of a vacant lot…and there…stopped.
        While the floodwater receded, the church remained-and is there to this day.
        Over a hundred Septembers have passed since the little white-framed church removed itself to the most desirable property in Swan Quarter.
        In the process of making up your own mind as to how and why what happened happened, you ought to know this one thing more, THE REST OF THE STORY.
        The choice highland lot where the chapel settled was the first choice of the town Methodists for the site of their church. And the shrewd, prosperous landowner whose property it was originally turned them down.
        But the next morning after the flood-after discovering the church in the middle of his lot-that same landowner went to the Methodist minister and, with trembling hands, presented him with the deed.” {Paul Aurandt pg.190-192}

  32. jerry says:

    replace renewables with recycling that I think if there is going to be any growth in the future we will all need to get into the garbage business. And if asteroid mining is really the future of the human race we will need to melt down 100 million cars to build the spaceships because hey we hit the motherlode on mars 10 trillion barrels of oil lol

    • Joel says:

      Space the final frontier…

      So we have some time to work this out. I am pleased to have checked out how things where going. Some really huge posts tonight. Transformed cars to spacecraft, I see some huge budget issues on this one.

      Will have to check back another time. Great post

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Now this is sure to piss of the Green Brigade… I am no longer going to recycle — because for the most part recycling is doing more harm than just tossing the stuff into a landfill.

      Money = energy — therefore if it is expensive to recycle that = a lot of energy is involved.

      https://www.bustle.com/articles/125641-is-recycling-worth-it-the-answer-might-surprise-you

  33. CTG says:

    Is it me only feeling it is it real – It seems that many people outside are not really believers of renewable anymore. The buzz and talk seems to be less and less and muted. Perhaps too many woke up and seeing the propaganda. This is especially so after Trump being elected. Even in the last posting by Gail on being delusional on renewables, the number of trolls coming in and hitting back is significantly less if that post were to be posted in 2012 or 2013.

    Am I the only one feeling it this way or is it real?

    • Kurt says:

      Too long. Point #35 – too long. Question #18 – why is your post so long? If it’s going to be that long, it needs to be a full on entertaining rant. Otherwise, step away from the keyboard please.

      • CTG says:

        Kurt, if you know what will happen, then good for you. Yo ucan skip reading but do take note that I will watching you on your comments to see if it strays.

        • Joebanana says:

          CTG-
          Excellent comments as always. I think it will be finance as well, and as a guy why works at one of these power plants, there is no way in hell I’ll be coming to work to finish off the last of the coal pile.

      • doomphd says:

        “Otherwise, step away from the keyboard please.” LOL! Careful with that axe, Eugene.

        CTD, I liked it. I hope you’re wrong, but I liked it.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        ADD?

      • Joel says:

        Not into the real big posts myself, it looked much bigger on the phone last night but I was laughing so hard I could not hardly see. I think your made the right call here, my reaction was of this was it’s certifiably totally gone, just a first thought.

    • jeremy890 says:

      Thanks CTG for connecting the dots in a very concise, well expressed format. It was important to put it all together in one place for all to have the predicament sink in our consciousness. For a change we had someone that took the time ( besides Gsil, of course}, to lay it out straight. Most just give one liners…

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Give it a few hours and the same cast of characters will be back regaling us with versions of BAU Lite.

        BTW – Glenn – where have you gone? Bring me a glass of wine…. and say something ridiculous…. entertain us….

  34. CTG says:

    Guys, this may be a repeat for Gail, Fast Eddy (aka Paul) and those who are on this website for a long time. The loss of electricity will be the effect of the collapse of the financial world.

    Many of us here are blessed with the ability to look at things in the macro view and can accept changes to our mindset. We are open to suggestion and I am 100% sure we realized this ourselves without anyone telling us about this problem we humans have.

    Humanity has a serious issue as reflected with Dunning-Kruger effect. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect Some of this effect while many has the inverse of this effect like sort of “don’t want to know” or cannot comprehend the big picture. The clearest example will be “Gas prices going up and driving is more expensive”. Response? “We drive less”. The problem with that is the thinking is very shallow and very short sighted. Either they don’t know (ignorant) that many other things are derived from petroleum (plastics, etc) or they refuse to acknowledge that. By refusing to acknowledge that, they are merely ignoring this issue because it is someone else’s issue and they are powerless to help. Therefore, they don’t want to know.

    When it comes to more complex stuff like those happening in the world of finance and banking, they are totally lost and hopeless. I took a lot of effort to understand this. I read through many websites, notably Zerohedge’s comment sections. I do not usually read the contents as am already aware of many things that are happening. I know that it is just a matter of time. However, there are many interest information nuggets in the comments sections. It throws some light on what other people think. I researched all the phrases and terminology that I do not uderstand, the concepts on how the financial product works, etc. I just come across to me that actually “how many people would spend this amount of time and effort to learn?”. I would suspect that many are just more interested in Facebook or Social Media.

    The following are just my comments and opinions and they are based on what I know. It may or may not be true but it is derived from facts and logic but not delusions.

    1. One man’s debts is another man’s assets. Your mortgages (and all other forms of debts – autos, commercial, student, credit cards, etc) are packaged together and sold off to pension funds and the returns are being distributed to all pensioners.

    2. The “interconnectedness” is horrendous.

    3. The entire process is high leveraged.

    4. To explain, your local bank A grouped all the 100 loans and sell it to an intermediate institution like investment banker. They will then chop/mix/match with types of loans and then sell them to institutional or retail investors. It may go through a few intermediaries and at each step, some addition and subtraction is executed and sold again and at each step, a little is skimmed off.
    5. It will be leverage. If one of the buyers needs cash, this entire tranche of “investment” may be posted as collateral (usually rated “AAA”) and the institution or buyer will get say 200% value of the posted collateral (because of ZIRP or friendly connections to Fed Reserve). This rehypothecation process can be repeat many times and while the underlying assets is only worth 10% of the end
    7. This is just one product. You have hundreds of these products and the main reason for this to happen is that “law of diminishing return” is always true on earth. You need to do more to get the same effect. Therefore, the banks must be very creative. This is known as financial engineering.
    product.
    6. If the underlying product happens to go bad (default), dropped in value or if the interest rate rises, then the entire chain will be impacted almost instantly and the billions, trillions or even quadrillions of funds sloshing around will suddenly become an issue. The bankers have taken and spent their bonuses. The money that this transfers around are all fake and they are in digital form. Money is created from thin air when loans are requested. So, all the leverage, nested and layered upon layer of obscurity, complexity will only make the matter worse.

    Question
    1. How does one even think of “debt jubilee”? How does one cancel all the debts? It is just not possible as it is too leverage, too obscure, too complex and one man’s debt is another assets. If all debts are cancelled in US, how will that work for Europe, Asia or other countries? How about the Treasurys? How about the pension fund that is invested in the bonds of companies or country? Suddenly, they cannot pay their pensioners?

    When the interest rate is set to go up on 15th March, I do believe the Fed has to do it because it is totalled cornered. They have raised once in 2015 and another in 2016. People will say that hey, look, they raised it then and there were no issues. So, they can raise it today without any issues. However, the situation now is so different from 2015 and 2016. Commercial loans are souring rapidly, the housing bubble looks very wobbly, political climate in USA and Europe is unstable. All the politicians are only backstabbing each other and none of them are talking about “progress”, “development” or any other topics related to economy or “growth” (not that it matter at all).

    We need banks and financial institutions. Our employers or business need banks to distribute salary, to provide bridging loans, letter of credit and other products are required to make the supply chain work. You are given a 30-day credit terms when you buy from a supplier and you have to give a 30-day term to your customers. No company (especially small ones) keep a lot of money in their accounts. They are being used (or turn around) for running the business. That is why they are known as “cash flow”. Sometimes, the company needs to have a 3-day loan to cover the extra purchase (they expect a good demand for their products) and the banks give the company the cash because they see they have a purchase order already.
    In 2008, the whole financial system froze and nothing moved. The banks were fearful of each other eventhough what happened then happened in USA. I was in Asia (still in Asia now) and I was at the epicentre of it. Our supplier demanded cash on delivery because their banks in Japan would not issue a letter of credit to them. Why? They main customer in USA is not paying as their banks have some issues with the mortgage collateral issue and they are like USD100m short of capital. The entire supply chain froze. We could not get any payment from our customer as their customer could not pay. When the end user cannot access the ATM for their cash, that will be the straw that broke the camel’s back. However, Hank Paulson came to the rescue with TARP and everything was released again and the credit wheel turned again and everything went back to “normal”. It is not the normal “normal” because the underlying issue was never resolved (until today). It was merely postponed. The debts grew a lot and the printing is non-stop since there. Had Paulson never come in with TARP, we would have our doomsday in 3 days because no company in our entire supply chain has the cash to pay their employees or our suppliers. For those who are not having their own company or involved in this work before, they will never understand the “finance of doing business”.

    So, just to conclude, electricity will only go out when the world of finance collapse. That is when the power plant does not have the fuel supply because the supplier was not paid and the trucker could not deliver the fuel or coal because no fuel. All sorts of things can happen. You just need to open your eyes.

    How fast will will happen? Very very fast. In 2008, it took less than a few days before the banks starts to go into “survival or preservation mode”. The inter-bank landing froze (that is the key) because they are scared of loaning to each other. It just take one bank to say “I don’t want to participant in inter-bank loans” to start the chain effect.

    What can the Fed Reserve or CBs do now? Nothing much because they have been printing (stealthy) for the last 9-10 years. The law of diminishing returns is now immutable. No amount of rule bending will help because all rules have been bend or broken (financial or accounting rules).

    Inflation has surged around the world, especially the last 12 months and since the last 6 months, it has been accelerating higher. The money that the CBs have printed began to leak out (especially from China). With less money to spend (ravaged by inflation), consumer spending will drop and it will have a bad effect on the overall economy and that in turn makes the financial world even more worse off (defaults, etc). It is a feedback-loop that does not stop until everything is destroyed (creative financial engineered products) and it comes to an equilibrium.

    We need money to survive in this world because bartering is not possible. We need credit and electronic payments because our world is too complex to go without them. With more than 50% of the American population cannot afford to write a USD500 check, what are the chances they have some money or food at home when the banks fail?
    It is not the loss of oil or climate change that will cause the great problem to human civilization but the collapse of financial system. Only those who live deep in the jungle are spared from this because they are not part of the modern society, other than those people, everyone else is.

    • CTG says:

      This is the reason why I say – it is “all or none”. We simply cannot have a step down in complexity because our system is way too energy intensive and complex. Any interest rate increase, fall in crude oil prices, continuous printing of money, loan defaults, less consumer spending will cause serious problems in the financial world and it will either “implode” or “not implode”. Just one small cog explodes in the complex machine, the entire mchine will grind to a halt because nobody designs a machine with redundancy in all its cogs.

      Like people use to say- You are either pregnant or not. You cannot be “a little pregnant”. Therefore, I find the “staircase step down civilization complexity ” a little hard to believe. So, we use fax machine now instead of email or half the company use email and another half use normal mail? or use normal mail and then later we use pigeons?

      • Duncan Idaho says:

        Or as Ken pointed out:
        “You are either on the bus, of off the bus”

      • Rainydays says:

        We can only move forward in time not go back to this or that decade of wealth/sustainability/technology/population levels. We won’t go back to previous situations and societies, the future will always be new, always different from the past.

        • hkeithhenson says:

          “the future will always be new, always different from the past.”

          So true.

          It’s fairly clear to me that the current energy sources will not continue to work very long into the future. But there is an awful lot of research work going on; some of it may change things in rather unexpected ways. For example, a solid way to prevent cancer would make nuclear reactors much more acceptable.

          Even the little items like nicotinamide riboside may have large effects. It seems to push out the lifespan of mice, but it also has the effect of giving older people more energy to get work done.

    • ITEOTWAWKI says:

      As always CTG, thanks for your excellent and well thought-out comments. Always a pleasure to read them 🙂

    • Rainydays says:

      Very well explained regarding the financial situation vs supply chains. But I find it highly unlikely that we will go down to a pure financial crash. Everybody understands that we are doomed if there are no supply chains. That’s why the High Wizard (i.e. Secretary of the Treasury) waved his magic wand and bailed out the banks in 2008 and the next Wizard will do the same when needed. 500 billions. Then 5 trillions. Then 50 trillions. Who cares, it’s just Monopoly Money. Whatever it takes.

      We are already in the decline of civilization. It is just moving so slowly we barely notice it.

      • Harry Gibbs says:

        From David Korowicz’s ‘Trade Off’, which looks at a Spanish default as a hypothetical trigger for global systemic failure (currently Italy and France, should Le Pen somehow win, look to be likelier candidates – but who knows?):

        “But as the US authorities prevented severe contagion after the fall of Lehman brothers, and bailed out the insurer AIG to protect counter-parties to derivative contracts, why could governments and central banks not do so again? The first reason is that the global financial system is understood to be in a more precarious state now… with the cracks apparent not just in Europe and the US, but in China, and elsewhere and with that there is less confidence, and more of its flip-side, fear. Secondly, this would now include a sovereign debt crisis and the break up of the Euro. Third, the tools that officials could wield in 2008 have become worn. Interest rates are already very low, and the crisis is likely to emerge as a consequence of a loss of faith in yet more ‘ big bazooka’ patches, and even more ECB liquidity.

        “The problem for governments and central banks in this context of global dis-integration is not just the escalating scale and breath of the problem, but the reality that it involves various monetary authorities and governments with conflicting perceptions of the crisis and diverse risk-reward decision frameworks. This highlights the issue of trust. There would be a likelihood of a growing divergence between the global and cooperative responses required to help stabilise the process and pressing national demands (and nationalism) to ‘protect our own’.

        “Central banks, the only party capable of responding, would be left with the option of recapitalising the world. That is, all critical insolvent countries and banks-because they would effectively been tied to the same platform. For example, the Fed and ECB would have to guarantee every liability across much of the insolvent global financial system. In the end the only backstop a central bank has is the ability to print infinite money, and if it has to go that far, it has failed because it will have destroyed confidence in the money.”

        • Rainydays says:

          Thanks for the input. I guess if the EU disintegrates then that will restrict the magical powers of the ECB.

          • Harry Gibbs says:

            You are welcome. ‘Trade Off’ (published 2012) is looking scary prescient right now.

  35. jerry says:

    You want something to really sink your teeth into check this out a question by Catherine:

    “Which raises the question – is it the bankers who are sending us to Mars – or the miners?”

    This is what I like to read and here about actual front line reports by someone who hears from the horses mouth and not the blasted CBS< NBC< ABC BBC REUTERS and the rest of the liars.
    This is another must read about what miners are finding or not finding rather! WOW!!!! PEAK EVERYTHING LADIES AND GENTLEMEN…………

    The View from Canada

    Catherine, News & Commentary, The Solari Report on March 9, 2017 at 6:03 pm · No Comments
    .https://solari.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/SBS_schneidrad02_540x360_01_aaa7c886dc.1442322095.jpg
    . .
    The Herrenknecht SBM produces blind shafts with diameters of up to 12 meters and depths of up to 2,000 meters.

    “I have an eccentric view on commodities not necessarily shared by my colleagues – or by almost anybody. And that is, we’re running out of everything.” ~Jeremy Grantham

    By Catherine Austin Fitts

    Our theme tonight on Monday & Markets on the Solari Report is “the view from Canada.”

    I am in Toronto for a week to attend the spring convention of the Developers and Prospectors Association of Canada.

    I took the opportunity to spend time with Rob Kirby of Kirby Analytics – this weeks interview with Rob on the Exchange Stabilization Fund is an amazing deep dive into the hidden system of finance that is engineering wealth into the top 1%.

    Rob hosted a lunch with Solari Report subscribers last Saturday. We had a fascinating roundtable discussion. One topic of interest was what is happening in the precious metals markets. We were joined by some of the top experts in the world, including Nick Barisheff and members of his team from BMG Bullion.

    The presentations at the conference underscore worldwide trends in mining exploration. One of the handouts circulating is from S&P on World Exploration Trends which provides a good overview of what has been happening as commodities prices have fallen.

    S&P Global Market Intelligence, “World Exploration Trends,” March 2017

    Key Points:
    •Last year marked the fourth consecutive year of declining exploration expenditure. The industry has slashed its budget to approximately one-third of the record high of $21.5 billion allocated in 2012;
    •The 2016 exploration budgets by 1,580 companies totaled $6.89 billion, a year-on-year drop of 21%; and
    •Gold remained the top-explored commodity in 2016

    Throughout the presentations, you hear the same themes – companies are having to dig up a lot more rock and dirt to get less metals. This is requiring them to go into more emerging and frontier markets and assume more political risk to do so.

    One of the most impressive presentations I saw was from German underground technology company Herrenknecht, whose tunneling tools were used to build the Gotthard Base Tunnel, on tools and technologies to help address this declining productivity curve.

    Some of the drop in industry productivity, no doubt, also comes from the rush of money as precious metals prices peaked in 2011.

    Deloitte circulated a piece, Tracking the trends 2017: The top 10 trends mining companies will face in the coming year. Several key points:
    •Mining sector stocks have significantly underperformed the FTSE 100, S&P 500 and ASK 200 since 2014, although they have been gaining since 2016:
    •Mining companies are feeling the heat for greater disclosure and transparency; and
    •Mining companies also have plenty of reasons to worry about cybersecurity.

    One of the themes that was evident throughout the presentations, materials and booth presentations was an emphasis on understanding the operating ecosystem and maintaining good relations and communications with workforce and communities. The stress on ESG criteria continues.

    If you sit back and appreciate the complexity that the mining industry manages in the face of digging deeper for less, you can appreciate why the interest in space and asteroid mining is growing. The mining industry needs the human race to become a multi-planetary civilization. Which raises the question – is it the bankers who are sending us to Mars – or the miners?

    Inflation is strong in Canada. The Toronto housing market has risen 20%+ for several years running. Looking through the paper and debt printing, our economics are being driven by a growing population competing for a shrinking supply of bountiful natural resources.

    Even in this North America land of plenty, the symptoms of “peak everything” are seeping into all aspects of our lives.

    https://solari.com/blog/the-view-from-canada/

    • Kurt says:

      Uh, I’m sorry. Some type of coherence would be appreciated.

    • SunGod says:

      Shouldn’t we go to the moon before we go to mars?

      • the moon and mars are safe from miners or bankers.

        why?

        because if the apollo program had brought back anything of consumable value..ie energy profitable… from the moon, the bankers would have put a commercial operation on there decades ago.
        Unfortunately they only brought back souvenirs and photographs.

        And when you go on vacation, what do you bring back?—
        Souvenirs and photographs.

        bankers aren’t interested in expensive vacations like that.

        Moon or mars or asteroids—have to give a greater return (EROEI) than it took to get there, or there’s no point in going. There’s nothing there.

        everything we use on earth, without exception, requires a convertible energy resource to make it function.
        the moon or mars has no convertible energy source in the sense that it could be exported back to earth at a profitable level.
        it might sustain a ‘colony’ for a while but the colony itself would have no long term purpose other than self-sustainability…..which would be very doubtful in any case.

        doubters should imagine the Jamestown colony unable to leave their huts—-ever!!
        other than in suits of armour.

  36. Fast Eddy says:

    The largest onshore oil discovery in America for at least 30 years just happened in Alaska

    http://www.businessinsider.com/repsol-onshore-oil-discovery-alaska-2017-3

    This calls for a celebration!!!! Hurrah hurrah hurrah…..

    http://www.holabirdsports.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/NewYearsParty_1000x500.jpg

    Hang on Mr Fast….

    We use nearly 100M barrels per day so:

    1,200,000,000 divided by 100,000,000 = 12.

    12 days of oil — and that’s the largest find in 30 years….

    https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/bc/5b/6d/bc5b6d51c62505cb78c20d397807d79f.jpg

    • timl2k11 says:

      “Initial production is expected to start in 2021 with the potential to extract up to 120,000 barrels of oil a day.”

      Woohoo!!! We’ll have a 0.1% increase in oil production 4 years from now! Party!!!

  37. Karl says:

    My power went out yesterday afternoon. I’m on a well, so no electricity, no water (just bought the place 8 months ago, adding whole house generator this summer). I’m in Ohio, so the temperature in the house was low 50’s this morning. Had to go to a relatives place to shower this morning. After work I dropped the wife and kids off at Grandmas, and was making my way home with two 5 gallon buckets of water (for flushing the toilet) and preparing to spend the night on the living room floor with the dog and a kerosene heater to keep the pipes from freezing.

    I was pleasantly surprised to find the juice was flowing when I got home. Only 24 hours without power and what a pain in the arse! I have a bunch of preps, but it served as a potent reminder of how easy fossil fuels make life. I was going to heat one of my buckets of water over a propane stove to do manually do the dishes. Probably would have taken over an hour. Instead I slapped ’em in the dishwasher and grabbed a cold beer from the fridge. I guess what I’m saying is ……BAU now, BAU tomorrow, BAU forever!

  38. Duncan Idaho says:

    Glenn, are you here Glenn?
    Why all that red?
    The LTO oil companies try to talk up their outlook to get investors to buy their stocks and bonds. At the same time they hope that lack of investment in big projects with long lead times (deep water and oil sands) along with continued cuts by OPEC will lead to higher oil prices.

    A lot of these analyses with low “break even” prices are ridiculous, using no rate of return on the money invested and ignoring land costs, royalties, taxes, transport along with using “typical” well profiles that are far from typical (they are often double the output of the average well).

    The real breakeven oil price for an average US LTO well (including full cycle costs) is probably over $85/b, possibly $90/b when interest costs are included.

    This is why the “robust recovery” of US LTO at $57/b is absurd.

  39. Duncan Idaho says:

    http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/598070-1.gif

    FE- I think even the $50 sale bonanza may need to be updated.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      And Glenn will need to find some spin that indicates shale is now profitable at $40 … due to ‘this amazing new technology’

      Sadly the ink is not even dry on the 50 Buck Club letterhead and now the lads need to change the name and re-order.

      Glenn – what will you do with the old letterhead? I recommend holding onto it — you can use it to light your sofa cushions on fire for the rat roast.

  40. Duncan Idaho says:

    Can you say El Niño?
    I know you could:
    http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

  41. Duncan Idaho says:

    Well, here is a game show for the near future:

    ‘Real Hunger Games’ gears up for TV launch from bear-infested island in Siberia
    By The Siberian Times reporter
    09 March 2017

    Real-life adventurers to a ‘professional blonde’ queue to participate in the ultimate brutal television reality contest, where ‘rape and murder’ are not banned.
    http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/n0894-real-hunger-games-gears-up-for-tv-launch-from-bear-infested-island-in-siberia/

    • Fast Eddy says:

      I was aware of this as I am a consultant on the project…… it’s all based on the Fast Eddy Challenge….

      Yevgeny was surfing FW and he saw my comments…. got in touch …. and we’ve been collaborating…

      Very exciting. Extremely…..

      • Duncan Idaho says:

        Gonna be Huge!
        Possibly get Cheeto Boy to grab some, well we know what.
        Might be a bit fat to waddle around the wilderness.

  42. Geneo says:

    I just learned it takes 10 minutes to drown in salt water unlike fresh water. Likewise the thought of starving to death seems equal and unnecessarily lengthy. Do your best & help others is a good plan for short or lengthy lives.

  43. dolph says:

    I realized today that I do have anxiety about the collapse of our system. I cannot deny that.
    Nevertheless, it must happen. It’s like ripping a band-aid off.
    We either collapse now or get a dozen little Hitlers and Stalins later. Somehow I don’t think we will make any changes.

    • Kenny Starfighter says:

      The power went out in half of the city where I live the other day. This usually never happens – we have an extremely stable grid in Denmark – but just for a second the thought occurred to me “It this it? Is this the end of it all?”.

      I then saw that the other half of the city still had power, so it was just a local problem. But it did give me a taste of the Fast Eddie Challenge. It taught me that no matter when it comes, I will not really be ready. Maybe it is like being a parent. You grow to it, you can’t really prepare for it.

      And my second thought was that the collapse would mostly be boring. Not much you can do without power! Well, I had my laptop for the few hours it lasted, but after that, I don’t know what I would have done.

      • As a dedicated doomster—we trust that you wasted your remaining battery power in OFW

        • Kenny Starfighter says:

          Wouldn’t looking for adult entertainment on the internet with the very last of my battery power be a better analogy for humankind’s time on earth? And the way I would also prefer to go 🙂

      • Joel says:

        I too have had anxiety about the collapse of our system and some time ago sort of gave up even the thought of preparation.
        We get frequent outages during thunderstorms due to the tall trees. The local power company does a great job of a quick restoration which is a plus. Have numerous small UPS for computer/light, light is nice.

      • Power grid failures increased in all countries connected to Germany recently indeed.
        Apart from the bottom line of crazy ideologies and cunning master race leading the area again, the technical reason is simple. Namely, the overcapacity of renewables vs. much slower build up of new inter-connectivity through Germany, so most of the countries around have to allow rather chaotic surges of supply (and demand) through their networks. The changing structure of baseload power generation also plays a role. Basically, its just another manifestation of the concept of exporting problems onto other parties.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        For those wasting time and money and fretting over prepping —- turn off the power for a few days — you will quickly realize that you have been wasting your time and money — and you will stop wasting your time and money when you turn the power back on.

        The true implications of the end of BAU really start to hit home when you have no power. Some people need to experience that to shake them out of their delusional Little House on the Prairie state.

        • DJ says:

          After turning of power and realizing life sucks, next step in your enlightment is slitting your throat.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            I have little doubt that for most people that is the first thought that will come to mind when BAU goes down.

            I am hoping for the family pack of eternal sleep pills in the post — courtesy of the Elders.

            If not — the rock cut with my name on it is – the last time I checked — still there

    • ITEOTWAWKI says:

      I am feeling very uneasy as well, like this thing is about to come down any day…..however I completely disagree with “we either collapse now or get a dozen little Hitlers and Stalins later”. When we collapse, I think the same way FE does, that within a year most of us will not be here any more…

    • timl2k11 says:

      Add me to that list. It really feels like things could come apart any day now.

      • Duncan Idaho says:

        “Survival not necessary”
        As one of my Zen friends once pointed out.

      • Stinging Nettle says:

        Come on all you religious doomer fanatics!
        Haven’t you heard the age of too cheap to meter shale oil is upon us? Haven’t you heard Elon Musk will save us all and we’ll live on Mars? That we will rid ourselves of these flawed biological bodies and upload our brains contents onto the universal conscience floating through the space-time fabric in an eternal bliss?

        🙂

        • Duncan Idaho says:

          And don’t forget about Neptune’s Moon Oily—
          With a worm hole we can have a endless supply of hydrocarbons.

      • Joel says:

        I had a great day yesterday and don’t feel that way at all. Checked out this site last night and was laughing so hard I could barely breathe, my eyes were watering a bit. Doomer sites can be tough sometimes, the movie Galaxy Qwest comes to mind http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0177789/ , keep on posting…

    • common phenomenon says:

      dolph says:
      I realized today that I do have anxiety about the collapse of our system.

      Joel says:
      I too have had anxiety about the collapse of our system

      DJ says:
      After turning of power and realizing life sucks, next step in your enlightment is slitting your throat.

      ITEOTWAWKI says:
      I am feeling very uneasy as well, like this thing is about to come down any day

      timl2k11 says:
      Add me to that list. It really feels like things could come apart any day now.

      Now look what you’ve been and gone and started, dolph. You do realise that, come The Great Emergency, anyone starting a sissy meme will be shot?

    • Just some thoughts says:

      Why would one be anxious about death? Death has always been the most certain of all eventualities in life. We always knew that we were going to die. That much is certain if nothing else. It is rather comic to act shocked or surprised when it happens. Why would one be anxious about it? Death is the transition back into the eternity of nothingness. For an eternity we did not exist and for an eternity we shall no longer exist as much as if we had never existed at all. Everything that we ever were shall be forgotten forever. We have no shortcomings in the eternal nothingness of forgetfulness. The surface of the pond shall be placid with its ripples, the stream shall flow onward through the grass. What is there to be anxious about in such a scenario? What is there to fear in death? Rather life is the region of anxiety, there is nothing to be anxious of in death. When all of the sound and fury is over, all of the crap, we shall pass back into the eternal night of peace and rest. All disturbance shall end, all illusion, all desire and anxiety. Life is a dream in the night soon gone, “signifying nothing”. Death is heaven. Life is heaven. The sooner that the capitalist state collapses the better.

      If we are honest about it then liberal capitalism did far more harm to humanity than A/H but like, whatever.

    • Joel says:

      Big graphs showing monthly changes very easy to read, who’s making the gulf go up?

      • Duncan Idaho says:

        Projects coming on line.
        It is a long process for the deep water gamble.
        Baldpate, Bullwinkle, Mad Dog, Magnolia, Mars, Petronius, and Thunder Horse. Notable individual wells include Jack 2 and Knotty Head.
        And also Tahiti.

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