I was asked to give a talk to a committee of actuaries who are concerned about modeling the financial future of programs, such as pension plans, given the energy problems that are often discussed. They (and the consultants that they hire) have been using an approach that puts problems far off into the future. I was trying to explain why the approach that they were using didn’t really make sense.
Below are the slides I used, and a little explanation. A PDF of my presentation can be downloaded at this link: The Mirror Image Problem.
Slide 1
FCAS stands for “Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society”; MAAA stands for “Member of the American Academy of Actuaries.” Actuaries tend not to be interested in academic degrees.
Slide 2
I try to explain how a more complex situation can be hidden in plain sight.
Slide 3
It is not obvious that both the needs of energy producers and energy consumers should be considered.
Slide 4
If we look back at what the discussions of the time were, we can see when remarks were that prices were too high for consumers, and when they were too low for producers. See for example my article, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis and my post, Beginning of the End? Oil Companies Cut Back on Spending. This latter article shows that companies were already cutting back on spending in 2013, when prices appeared to be high, because even at a $100+ per barrel level, they still were not high enough for producers.
Slide 5
Oil companies tend to extract the cheapest and easiest to extract oil first. Eventually, they find that they need to move on to more expensive to extract fields–even with technology enhancements, costs are rising. There seems to have been a step up in costs starting about the year 2000. The above chart is by Steve Kopits. This EIA data (in Figure 10) also shows a pattern of sharply rising costs about the same time.
The problem, of course, is that wages have not been spiking in the same pattern. As a result, we encounter the problem of prices being either too high for consumers, or too low for producers, as we saw on Slide 4.
Slide 6
The economy is “built up” from many different parts. It includes governments, businesses, and consumers. It also includes people with jobs in the economy, and individuals and businesses making investments in the economy. It gradually changes over time, as new businesses and new laws are added, and as other changes are made. The wages that workers earn influence how much they can spend. The economy keeps re-optimizing, based on the goods and services available at a given time. Thus, slide rules are no longer commonly sold; it is not easy to buy horse-drawn carriages. This is why I show the economy as hollow.
Slide 7
Let’s talk a little about how economic growth occurs in a networked economy.
Slide 8
Clearly, tools and technology can be very helpful in creating economic growth. I am using the term “tools” very broadly, to include any kind of structure or device we build to aid the economy. This would even include roads.
Slide 9
Making tools clearly requires energy. Operating these tools very often requires energy as well, such as energy provided by diesel or electricity. With the use of tools, humans can more efficiently make goods and services. For example, if small parts need to be transported to a business, it is nearly always more efficient to transport them by truck than to deliver the parts by walking and carrying these parts in our hands. Clearly, tools such as trucks also allow us to do things that we could never do otherwise, such as deliver large and heavy parts to users.
Economists often talk about “rising worker productivity,” as if this rising productivity came about because of actions undertaken by the worker–perhaps attempting to work faster. Another possibility would seem to be taking a course on how to work more efficiently. We would expect that most of the time this rising productivity would come about as a result of the use of additional tools, or better tools. Thus, it is really the tools, and the energy that they use, that are acting to leverage worker productivity.
Slide 10
It is not intuitive that adding tools requires debt, unless a person stops to realize that it generally takes quite a bit of resources to make a tool (human labor, plus metal ores and energy products). Using these tools will provide a benefit over quite a long period in the future. A business making these tools has a problem: it must buy the resources to make the tools and pay the workers, before the benefit of the tools actually comes into existence. It is necessary to have debt (or a debt-like financial instrument, such as shares of stock), to bridge this gap.
This same kind of mismatch occurs, even if goods being purchased with debt are not really tools. For example, a home purchased with debt and paid for with a mortgage is not really a tool. The buyer needs to pay interest to a bank or some other intermediary, in order to finance the home over a period of years. Thus, part of the worker’s wages is going to the financial system, rather than to obtain the goods and services he really wants. Financing the home with debt is generally more convenient than paying cash, however. Because of the convenience factor, debt is generally essential for most home purchases. If a new home is being purchased, the builder who builds the home will need to buy lumber and pay workers when the house is built, rather than over the lifetime of the house. Because of this, debt is necessary so that the builder will have the funds to buy lumber and pay the workers.
Analysts coming from engineering and other “hard sciences” often miss this need for debt. Since a person can’t see or touch it, it is easy to think it isn’t needed. Interest payments are important, because they transfer goods and services made by the economy away from workers to other sectors of the economy (such as the financial system, retirees, and pension programs). Thus, they represent a different use for energy products, other than making goods for the use of workers.
Slide 11
Slide 11 shows how an economy produces a growing quantity of goods and services. The three types of inputs I show are
- Energy products and other resources
- Workers
- Tools
I perhaps should include government services, such a roads, as well. If I did, I would show a fourth box down the side. Such a box didn’t fit easily on the slide, so I left it off.
Slide 12
As I noted in Slide 10, it takes debt to be able to have enough funds to pay everyone who makes tools, and in fact, other goods (such as vehicles and homes) that we pay for over the life of the goods. In Figure 12, I show that at least some of those providing inputs to the process receive “Future goods and services, plus interest,” rather than goods that have already been made. In this way, the system distributes more goods and services than would be available through the barter system.
In my notes to Slide 11, I commented that I perhaps should have included a government sector, as a fourth box down the side. That comment is also true here. On Slide 12, we are distributing the benefit of goods and services created, so we probably need to add even more boxes down the side. One of them would be “Payments Under Funded Pension Programs.” Another box would represent payments to individuals who sell appreciated shares of stock and real estate, and hope to buy goods and services with the proceeds of these sales. In the government sector, we would need to be certain that the category is large enough to include goods and services distributed to retiring “Baby Boomers” under Social Security and similar unfunded retirement programs.
People who do modeling can easily lose sight of the fact that we really live in a “calendar year” world. Each year, we can extract only so much oil, coal, gas, and metal ores, and use those resources to make goods and services. These goods and services are generally available for sale the same year. It is easy to add layers and layers of promises of “future goods and services” to the system, without ever checking to see whether the resource base provides enough resources to make promised future distributions of goods and services possible.
Slide 13
Often, it is the owners of resources who are paid in stock or debt. Workers are paid in money (which is a form of debt), but they very often want to spend most of it on goods and services that they can use today.
We can think of debt (and balances in bank accounts) as promises for future energy, and the goods it makes possible. Of course, if that energy isn’t really available, the promise is an empty promise.
Slide 14
There are many kinds of debt, and reciprocal obligations. This is a chart I found recently, giving one person’s view of the amount outstanding today, including a very large amount of derivatives. All of these debts make the assumption that energy will be available in the future so that goods and services can be created to fulfill these various types of promises.
Exeter Pyramid of Debt, created by Dr. Iris Mack.
Slide 15
Debt becomes very important in the whole system, because the higher the debt level, the higher that wages can be. Also, with a higher debt level, commodity prices, such as oil prices, can also be higher. Because more debt seems to make almost everyone richer, governments go out of their way to encourage additional debt, and more debt-like instruments. Of course, if interest rates go up, rather than down, interest on this debt becomes a big burden for borrowers. On Slide 12, the higher interest rates transfer a larger share of goods and services away from workers to other sectors of the economy (such as pensions).
Slide 16
Shrinking debt levels are similar to governmental cutbacks for programs. (In fact, governmental cutbacks in programs often result from shrinking debt levels.) Then fewer workers can be hired, and fewer goods and services can be purchased. The economy tends to shrink–similar to what happened during the 2008-2009 recession.
Slide 17
We often hear about “Supply and Demand.” A better name for “demand” might be “amount affordable.”
I mentioned in previous slides that wages and the amount of debt increase are important in determining the amount affordable. Other items that have a bearing are Item (3) the level of the dollar relative to other currencies, and Item (4) the extent to which productivity is rising. If the dollar is high relative to other currencies, the price of oil tends to be low, because those buying goods made with oil in non-US dollar currencies find the goods expensive.
Slide 18
Slide 18 illustrates the very significant impact that changing interest/debt levels can have on oil prices. Although I don’t mark the point on the graph, the peak in oil prices in 2008 came when US debt levels on consumer loans and mortgages started to fall. (See Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis for details.) The US began Quantitative Easing (QE) in late 2008, with the intent of lowering interest rates and making debt more available. It was not long after it began that oil prices began to rise. Once QE was discontinued in 2014, other currencies fell relative to the US dollar, and the price of oil again fell.
Slide 19
The situation we have now is very much like a Ponzi Scheme. We need to keep adding more debt to keep wages and commodity prices high enough. At the same time, interest rates need to stay very low, to keep payments manageable, and keep the whole system from collapsing.
The balance sheets of insurance companies, banks, and pension plans include much debt. If these institutions are to make good on their promises to those with bank accounts, insurance policies, and pension plans, it is necessary for this debt to be repaid with interest. Back many years ago, debt jubilees were often given to selected debtors. These are out of the question now, because banks, insurance companies, and pension plans depend upon the future payments that this debt represents.
Slide 20
We like to think that improved technology can add more and more benefit. In fact, technology seems to reach diminishing returns, just as almost any other type of investment does. We make the easy changes (smaller cars, for example) first. Later changes tend to be more incremental. Because of this pattern, we can’t count on huge future changes in technology saving us.
Slide 21
Most people do not realize that the laws of physics determine the way that markets work–for example, the prices at which sales take place, and whether or not there are enough suppliers of a given product in the market place. They assume that as we reach limits, markets will always work as they have in the past. This seems unlikely.
Slide 22
Physics is often taught in terms of what actions are expected in an “isolated” or a “closed” system. In fact, the earth receives energy from the sun. The economy also obtains energy from stored fossil fuels and from uranium. Because of these energy flows, the rules of an “open” system are more appropriate. These have only been studied in recent years. Ilya Prigogine received a Nobel Prize in 1977 for his work on dissipative structures.
What is surprising is that dissipative structures are always temporary. They grow for a time, but eventually collapse. We know that plants and animals have finite lifespans; generally new similar plants and animals replace them. It is less obvious that systems such as ecosystems and economies have finite lifetimes.
Slide 23
Figure 23 shows my idea of how the dissipative structure of an ecosystem might be represented. Its inputs include solar energy, water, air, minerals from the soil, and recycled waste products from plants and animals. There are no real waste products from the system, because waste products are recycled. Ecosystems tend to collapse, when very sharp fluctuations occur. For example, forest fires tend to occur when a large amount of waste wood has accumulated and weather conditions are dry. (Perhaps dry wood and leaves, if they do not degrade rapidly enough, might be considered a temporary waste output that can lead to the demise of the ecosystem through fire, when conditions are right.)
Slide 24
Figure 24 shows my idea of how the economy might be represented as a dissipative structure. One critical part is “other energy,” which makes the economy act much like a rocket. Another critical part of the economy is “tools and technology.” Tools and technology allow the various inputs to be used, and the economy to grow. In a way, they are parallel to the biological systems that allow plants and animals to grow in ecosystems.
With human economies, we have multiple problems that can occur:
[1] Quantity of resources needed for inputs falls short
[2] Population of humans rises disproportionately to inputs of energy and other resources
[3] Waste outputs of various types become a problem
Growing debt is one of the waste outputs. Since we voluntarily seek out debt, we think of debt as an input. But if we think about the situation, debt is really an adverse output. Required interest payments tend to pull funds out of the system that could otherwise be used to pay workers. Also, the rising use of debt tends to concentrate the ownership of “tools” among the already wealthy. Debt can grow for a while, but it has limits, because of the adverse impacts it creates for the economy.
Growing wage disparity occurs because of the increased specialization required by ever-rising use of tools and technology. Some people receive the benefit of advanced education and learning to use tools such as computers; others receive much less benefit. As a result, their wages lag behind. Wage disparity is another limit of the system. If a large share of the workers cannot afford to buy the output of the economy, “demand” falls too low, and commodity prices tend to fall.
Distorted prices (shown on Slide 24) have to do with the changes to prices that occur, both because of added debt, and because we are reaching limits. Prices are not the same as they would be in a pure barter economy. Added debt allows prices to be much higher. As we reach limits, prices can fall below the cost of production. Suppliers continue to produce energy products, at least for a time, until the low prices become a real problem.
Slide 25
There are many reasons why an economy, which acts like a rocket, cannot continue forever.
Many readers have heard of “Energy Returned on Energy Invested” (EROEI). This is a favorite metric of many energy researchers. It is calculated by dividing Energy Out of a system by required Energy Inputs. As I show on Slide 25, EROEI looks at one part of one problem that economies encounter. There are many other problems and parts of problems that EROEI doesn’t consider.
Slide 26
Many believe that renewables can replace “Other Energy.” One reason for this belief is the fanciful claims by some researchers. Another reason for this belief is the apparently fairly favorable EROEI calculations that seem to occur when these devices are examined. These calculations are very limited. They don’t examine the many adverse impacts of adding tools and technology, and the rapid rise in debt that would be required.
Slide 27
Trying to run the economy on solar electricity alone (or solar plus wind plus water) is a futile exercise. One reason is that it would require massive changes to allow long-haul trucks and airplanes to operate on electricity.
Also, electricity is a high-cost energy product. Today, our economy operates on a mix of high and low cost energy products, with low cost energy products keeping the average cost down. Trying to run the economy on electricity alone is a bit like trying to run the economy using only PhDs. In theory it could be done, but it would be expensive to have PhDs waiting on tables in restaurants and delivering mail.
Too often, researchers make models without determining the details of how the system would really need to operate and what the cost would be.
Slide 28
There are many different limits for any kind of system. For example, one limit for humans is having enough oxygen. Another limit for humans is having enough water. A third limit is having enough food. Any of these things are limits. The trick is trying to figure out which one is the first limit, in a particular situation.
EROEI based on fossil fuel inputs was developed when it looked like there would be a shortfall of fossil fuels. If, in fact, our problem is not being able to get the price of fossil fuels high enough, this is a different, more complex, problem.
I think of the ratio that is popularly computed as EROEI as “Fossil Fuel EROEI.” Fossil Fuel EROEI is popularly believed to be a limit, but it is not at all clear to me that it is the first limit. It is also not clear that the limit is any particular number (such as EROEI=1, or EROEI=10).
There is a different kind of EROEI that seems to me to be at least as likely, or more likely, to be the first limit that we will reach. That is the return that workers who are selling their labor simply as labor (without advanced education or supervisory responsibility) obtain. If these workers find that their wages drop too low, this will be a limit on the operation of the economy. Low wages will prevent these workers from buying houses and cars. If the wages of the large number of non-elite workers fall too low, commodity prices will tend to fall, and the system will tend to collapse because producers cannot make a profit at such a low price.
Biologists have been studying the return on the labor of animals for many years, because their populations tend to collapse, when animals are forced to expend too much labor in finding food. EROEI based on wages of non-elite workers would seem to be a closer parallel to the animal return on labor than fossil fuel EROEI.
Slide 29
I have laid out a few of the issues I see with EROEI of intermittent renewables on Slide 29. There are other issues as well. For example, because it is a prospective calculation, it is very easy for wishful thinking to lead to optimistic estimates of future energy production and expected lifetimes of the devices.
Slide 30
Energy researchers have defined “net energy” to be any energy in excess of EROEI = 1. There is a common misbelief that if the economy can continue to produce energy products with an EROEI above 1, everything should be fine. In fact, some studies commissioned by actuaries regarding whether the economy is reaching energy limits seem to be based on an assumption that producing energy products with an EROEI > 1 is sufficient to prevent energy problems in the future. This is not a high threshold. Given such an assumption, our problems with energy seem to be far, far in the future. Pensions can continue to be paid as planned.
On Slide 30, Ugo Bardi is saying that this assumption is not correct. It is not true that the system will crash when the net energy of a particular fuel (here oil) becomes negative. We cannot understand the behavior of a complex adaptive system such as the economy in terms of mere energy return considerations. Clearly, I am not the only one looking at the economy in broader terms than an EROEI ratio.
Slide 31
Where we are now.
Slide 32
It is hard to see any good fixes. Technology reaches diminishing returns. Neither renewables nor nuclear is really working well now.
Slide 33
The standard forecasts seem to be based on the assumption that the economy can grow forever.
Slide 34
We have many problems that have been missed by recent economic modeling, including models commissioned by actuaries.
Slide 35
Actuaries are involved primarily with insurance companies and pension plans. My concern is that the financial system will be the center of the storm, as we hit limits this time. This will affect actuaries and their work.
Whether or not a new economic system can arise to take the place of our existing system remains to be seen. It certainly is a concern.
Two Observations
- My write-up is probably more complete than the actual one-hour talk was.
- I don’t think that anyone can be “blamed” for the confusion about what EROEI means. Our understanding of how the economy works is gradually evolving. Written documentation about EROEI is found in a myriad of academic papers. The name “Net Energy” seems to give energy in excess of EROEI=1 more importance than it really has.
One thing that has not been mentioned regarding auto sales… is that manufacturers count a ‘sale’ as a vehicle rolling out of the assembly plant ….
It does not matter if the vehicle sits in a parking lot for months… unsold… it still counts as a sale…
We are told that ‘dealer inventories are now at the highest level that we have seen since the last financial crisis’
Obviously this means sales are a LOT weaker than the numbers are showing
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/03/27/Dimon%20LFP.jpg
A 3 comment per day limit per poster would do wonders for the quality of the comment section of this blog. FE occasionally has something to offer but has become a domineering presence and a bit of scourge.
As a daily reader/lurker would just like to say I really appreciate your work, Gail. Thank you for making this interesting space on the internet available to all of us.
Yep – I am a scourge… if you are a DelusiSTANI…..
DelusiSTANIS are renowned for their low IQ’s…. and because of this they are constantly hurting themselves because they are unable to learn…
For instance — when they burn their fingers on a stove… they do it again a few days later… and again a few days after that… and they are continuously sticking scissors into sockets…
But the one thing they fear — is Fast Eddy…. they do not like The Lash.
https://media.giphy.com/media/48dnXf0UF6isg/giphy.gif
A three comment per day limit would really stymie lively debate. FE can be acerbic but his views are well researched and he has a sense of humour.
I think because Gail’s blog deals with such weighty subject-matter it feels like the stakes are very high, so I totally get why commenters and lurkers are easily upset – but best just to skim past commenters that wind you up.
All these DelusiSTANIS are Soooooo Serious!
Lighten up people — it’s not like it’s the end of the world …. ooops … it is the end of the world.
All the more reason to…..
http://www.azquotes.com/picture-quotes/quote-eat-drink-and-be-merry-for-tomorrow-we-die-kurt-vonnegut-41-66-67.jpg
So it goes…;)
I agree Harry! I also appreciate FE’s comments. They are well researched as you said and it clearly shows that if you go beyond MSM BS, we are truly effed and very soon at that! If you don’t like FE’s comments, it’s easy: when you see Fast Eddy as the commenter name just…skip it..
Skip it… and remain in a delusional state…
“FE can be acerbic but his views are well researched and he has a sense of humour.”
This is false:
1. The only source I’ve ever seen him cite is a single physics professor. He ignores any other evidence presented to him in favor of his pet source.
2. He seems to think he is funny, but I’ve never seen him post anything genuinely witty or insightful. He just posts a lot of goofy pictures and insults.
He seriously detracts from the conversation here. I’m sure a lot of people have given up making a case because FE made a wall ‘o’ text containing exactly zero facts but a lot of unsourced speculation and personal abuse.
I should add that I’ve never seen FE admit that he’s wrong or even seem to consider the possibility that he MIGHT be wrong…about anything.
That’s a serious red flag for dogmatism and unwarranted certainty.
Actually … that is not correct… years ago I thought solar power and EVs were going to save us…
I also used to doomsday prep.
I even bought into the hope and change BS of Obama
I used to read the new york times believing it was not Pravda
I have been wrong many times.
That is why when I post something — you can assume I am generally right — most of my mistakes are behind me
@Fast Eddy:
If you can only admit that opinions you ONCE HELD might be wrong, but can’t admit that opinions that you HOLD NOW might be wrong, then any attempt at intelligent discussion with you is pointless. Intellectual humility is completely necessary for intelligent discussion, and you give no signs of having any of it.
Think of me as the bum and you are the rich guy with the pretty daughter. You cannot stand that the bum is getting down with your little girl.
How much will you pay me to go away?
@Fast Eddy:
If you want to waste what you are convinced are your last few years on earth venting spleen at strangers who happen to have a different opinion than you on the internet, go right ahead. Seems like you are already paying plenty in the most precious currency.
The thing is…
What I want is to spend some of my time remaining analyzing the end of BAU with others who share my curiosity …. who are also peeling back layers — who are citing facts logic and evidence….
Because such people help me learn and understand a very fascinating range of issues
As I have stated many times — I have no interest in trying to convince imbeciles that they are wrong…. I do not wish to argue with fools
That is why I attack them with the intention of driving them into an insane asylum…. in all seriousness — I want to crush and destroy them – I want to send them from the ring dripping in blood …. with brain damage and broken bones…
So that they know not to come back until they have learned that you either come here armed with facts… or not to come at all.
If you do not like that approach — then you need to look in the mirror if you want someone to blame
You – and others like you – are the problem.
I am the solution
‘I’m sure a lot of people have given up making a case’
A lot of people have given up posting their DelusiSTANI bullshit — because I destroy them when they try that
Which is EXACTLY what I want — DelusiSTANIS out – death to DelusiSTANIS. Off to Peak Prosperity with DelusiSTANIS
If you come here with facts and logic — I will debate you — if you come here with hopium and gibberish — the lash comes out…. if that does not work you get put to the sword.
Funny how I get ridiculed by the MOREons when I post sources supporting arguments — that I cut and paste a lot of stuff…. I expect nothing less from clowns like this who show up on FW
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWeG6Ea84zg
I think I have only once referenced a physics professor — on the spent fuel ponds it was — that is because I generally post comments related to financial issues — not really the area of expertise of physics experts – no? no? no?
What do you think?
Ok – let’s get down to business. Post something stoopid that you think it insightful. Throw me a hunk of raw meat
“A lot of people have given up posting their DelusiSTANI bullshit — because I destroy them when they try that”
If you conclude that people are delusional merely because they disagree with you, then you merely demonstrate that you lack the maturity and intellectual humility necessary to seriously examine your own beliefs. None of your rebuttals seem very “destructive” to me. You barely ever cite any sources.
“I think I have only once referenced a physics professor — on the spent fuel ponds it was — that is because I generally post comments related to financial issues — not really the area of expertise of physics experts – no? no? no?”
No, I’m specifically referring to the spent fuel ponds issue.
You rely entirely on an argument from authority on the basis of exactly one physics professor. But you never provide any argument for why that individual physics professor is so extremely right about everything that every other physics professor in the world, as well as all the experts and technicians in the nuclear energy industry, can simply be ignored.
Picking one source that happens to agree with your pre-existing opinions is not evidence-based reasoning. It’s called cherry picking. It’s a form of confirmation bias.
Only a small percentage of your posts are on financial issues. Most are just personal abuse. Personally, I’d rather see people sincerely make bad arguments than to see the circus sideshow that is you responding to them.
‘If you conclude that people are delusional merely because they disagree with you’
Wrong.
I conclude people are DelusiSTANI because they disagree with me but are unable to support their position with facts or logic.
When faced with facts and logic they refuse to acknowledge the facts and logic — and it ends up a debate with a MOREon….
The problem is compounded by the fact that the MOREon thinks he is a genius….
And as to be expected that just leads to frustration and an epic endless barrage of mockery….
Because the MOREon no matter what … thinks he is right …. even though it has been demonstrated that he is wrong…. he will never back down …. because that is what MOREons do.
https://image.spreadshirtmedia.com/image-server/v1/compositions/111549283/views/1,width=300,height=300,version=1473664654/universe-is-made-of-protons-neutrons-and-morons-t-shirts-men-s-premium-t-shirt.jpg
FE That image is simply too, too, exciting. 🙂
Perhaps the wrong approach … they may be enjoying the lash… I never thought of that!
For Gail:
MARTA Surveying Residents on Expanded Transit Service in Atlanta
https://www.planetizen.com/node/92056/marta-surveying-residents-expanded-transit-service-atlanta
Things are starting to be fun in Europe after the Brexit.
Attention, friends of OFW: UK is going to declare war on Spain haha…
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/gibraltar-war-falklands-lord-howard_uk_58e0ed0ee4b0c777f788130f?ir=UK+Politics&utm_hp_ref=uk-politics
Delirious 🙂
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39475127
http://s3.eestatic.com/2017/04/04/actualidad/Actualidad_205989710_32042858_1024x576.jpg
This article is interesting about the absurd historical struggle between the two nations.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/03/absurd-history-british-spanish-rivalry-henry-viii-gibraltar
The Spaniards do not care about the damn rock called Gibraltar, and we have nothing against the British, the opposite, actually.
I’m seriously starting contemplating to build for my home a mini shrine, specifically dedicated to Chancellor Mackerel. Because and despite as all these trends suggests we are going back to the old traditional settings of Europe, meaning wars punctuated with concerts of dominating big powers – she managed by that ~1Mio immigration wave substantially weaken Germany into the future. Hence, paradoxically provided better life for many Europeans.. Crazy surreal stuff, yet true.
Everything is starting to be totally surreal !!!
And this has only just begun… ay… my god! 🙂
the concept of the EU was formulated out of common wealth.
That common wealth was a surplus of cheap energy, from which we could manufacture ”stuff” to sell to each other. The nations of the original EU grew in prosperity from 1955 onwards, and gradually other nations joined the EU club, convinced that somehow the inter-national prosperity was somehow self perpetuating, in denial of the simple economic fact that the entire edifice was built on cheap oil coal and gas making the economy of the world circulate to everyone’s benefit.
What could possibly go wrong? The good times were/are forever.
But the EU is like any neighbourhood. As long as the area is communally prosperous, everything is fine. But the moment some neighbours let the area down by getting into debt, and expecting handouts from richer folks next door, then the concept of community begins to fall apart.
Inequality kicks in, then resentment.
Before you know it, the area dissolves into what it used to be, separate enclaves fighting one another over the right to exist.
Which describes Europe up until 1945.
And how does this affect the USA?
That too has been a common wealth held together by cheap energy.
Now that cheap surplus energy has gone, the USA will go the way of Europe and devolve into separate nation states during the coming century for no better reason than it will not possess the means to hold itself together.
There will be civil wars in denial of this of course, but warfare itself requires energy input, so the end result is a foregone conclusion.
As an Anglo-Spaniard, I shall have to arm myself with a pistol in each hand, and fire simultaneously in the air: honour satisified. I sincerely hope I will not have to intern myself in a camp. But if this should happen, Crates, please don’t forget to send me chorizo.
Xabier, you can count on that.
Of course it was the US that ordered the CW attack on the women and children in
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-04/trump-blames-obama-syrian-chemical-attack in 2013 — Seymour Hersh explained this — and of course he is only a pulizer prize winning journalist so this should not be picked up by the MSM – for obvious reasons … https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2014/04/07/syri-a07.html
Now isn’t this interesting… http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-04/trump-blames-obama-syrian-chemical-attack
Obama and the rest of his crew should swing from ropes… like Saddam … and what the hell… let’s just hang all former US presidents who are still alive.
Billions would cheer!
Pingback: les petites combines de la réserve fédérale ( pratie 2). | rocbalie
Pingback: rocbalie
The Danger of a Sell-off in U.S. Stocks Grows
You might put it as “what’s bad for General Motors is bad for the stock market.”
Recent history suggests American automobile sales indicate subsequent moves in U.S. equities. Declines in 2011 and 2012 were followed by a retreat in the S&P 500 index, and gains in the fall of 2015 came before a market rally. While the relationship isn’t exact, and correlation doesn’t equal causation, the surprising slump in vehicle sales last month comes just as investors are questioning how much to believe off-the-charts surveys of American confidence levels.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-04/danger-of-sell-off-in-u-s-stocks-grows-as-auto-sales-disappoint
https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iHJBDwgwfNTs/v2/800x-1.png
I can believe that a drop in car sales might precede drop in the stock market. Autos are big purchase. (Even auto leasing is a big decision.) If things are going wrong that affect autos, they likely affect a lot of other things.
LOL: “My friends and my road-fellows, pity the nation that is full of beliefs and empty of religion.
“Pity the nation that wears a cloth it does not weave, eats a bread it does not harvest, and drinks a wine that flows not from its own winepress.
“Pity the nation that acclaims the bully as hero, and that deems the glittering conqueror bountiful.
“Pity the nation that despises a passion in its dream, yet submits in its awakening.
“Pity the nation that raises not its voice save when it walks in a funeral, boasts not except when its neck is laid between the sword and the block.
“Pity the nation whose statesman is a fox, whose philosopher is a juggle, and whose art is the art of patching and mimicking.
“Pity the nation that welcomes its new ruler with trumpetings, and farewells him with hootings, only to welcome another with trumpetings again.
“Pity the nation whose sages are dumb with years and whose strong men are yet in the cradle.
“Pity the nation divided into fragments, each fragment deeming itself a nation.”
(THE GARDEN OF THE PROPHET by Kahlil Gibran)
“I pity the fool” — Mr. T
“Alright, alright, alright.” Mc C.
George saves me having to type what I feel
So deep…
So right….
So what…
I had an interesting thought. Imagine for a moment if we still had not discovered any fossil fuels. And, the highway system, electric cars, batteries, solar PV, wind turbines and the electric grid just popped outta thin air for free by some outside force and it was powering some socio-economic system. Then lets press the start button and played this scenario forward in time and, we discover fossil fuels. What do you think would happen to the solar PV and wind turbines?
We would milk them as long as they required no maintenance because they would provide free electricity?
Yes, that is an issue, they would need repair. Just thinking out of the box how would that be done? I am trying to see how solar PV and wind Turbines (even if kickstarted) could maintain themselves. Then if fossil fuels are discovered I don’t see how fossil fuels wouldn’t eventually replace the “gifted” solar PV and wind turbines.
well, we didn’t switch to fossil fuels out of necessity as far as I’m aware, we switched as a matter of convenience and efficacy, fossil fuels offer a greater return of effort to society. I imagine people would quickly realize the value to society of fossil fuels are and start adding it to the system until it takes over the inefficient (or low EROEI) system already in place.
We switched to coal because of massive deforestation problems in Europe
There were periods where felling a tree was a capital offense and life imprisonment was tooo expensive.
Cutting down a tree could get you exiled to Australia as well….
So this can all be pretty much summed up by calling it the epitome of a ‘ Potemkin Village ‘ .. with the only plausible answer if not solution painful as it may be being … Less …as in do less .. drive less .. buy less etc . Less . Funny .. those were the very warning bells of advice Jimmy Carter gave the US back in the 70’s .. which promptly lost him the election to Greed is Good and Too Much is Never Enough King Ronald . And here we are . Dealing with the consequences Carter warned us of … thanks to King Ronald and his UK lapdog Iron Lady
Yeah it is all about growth. And most of us on here know that the growth will stop at some point. And when growth stops the economy stops. The thing is most folks have normalized growth into their daily lives as we (in the USA) have been on a massive growth treadmill since WWII ended. Growth is so ingrained in modern finance that we hear phrases like: “sales dropped unexpectedly” or, “sustainable growth” or, “growth will normalize” or, “growth will return to normal”. We are truly mad (as in insane) to expect infinite growth in a finite world. How can a person not understand why you cannot have infinite growth in a finite world?
It’s always been about passing the buck … passing the problem on to the next generation … primarily because there is no choice …. unless we were willing to remain living like hunter gatherers – which nobody wanted to do – nor wants to do…
And it makes everyone feel better to believe that the next generation will figure things out … after all .. our generation did ok….all those clowns in the 60’s calling for collapse were wrong….
Unfortunately we are the generation for which the buck stops…. soon.
TJ Martin, by pinning our predicament on capitalism, you’re ignoring some harsh realities.
From a social point of view, we look down on people who live hand-to-mouth. 1.Consumption and social status are intimately related in a surplus society.
Living hand-to-mouth is indicative of low fitness for men who are trying to attract women .
Voluntary poverty is only practiced by isolated religious groups and those born into wealth. Among wealthy people, voluntary poverty is not hand-to-mouth living, it’s a reduction in consumption .Humans have a winner-takes-all attitude related to resources among different groups. The act of sharing resources equitably goes against this deeply ingrained winner-takes-all attitude. Only huge surpluses lead humans to share. Religion hasn’t removed our winner-takes-all attitude.
In my experience, people who talk about “the dark side of human nature” are almost always secretly talking about the dark side of THEIR OWN nature.
wysinwygymmv says: “In my experience, people who talk about “the dark side of human nature” are almost always secretly talking about the dark side of THEIR OWN nature”
Those people who talk about the “dark side of human nature” are almost always talking from personal experience while optimists are either sheltered and delusional people who believe most people don’t have “dark sides” because of their relative wealth/status and high fitness . People who don’t have to compete very much in life because they live lives of luxury have distorted views of competition–they either glorify it or think it’s an archaic relic that is no long necessary because they think everyone lives a life similar to them– a world of abundance.
Carter was an accidental president, also not aware of many important stuff how gov works and surrounded daily by TPTB’s line of defense by agents such as Brezinski and so on. Should the “awakening” inside the population be more of substance and less of passing fashion, some changes of course could have happened then, perhaps, very very theoretically, ..
If we zoom out a little bit, the historians claim that apart from many more or less isolated examples, we humanoids have had so far three attempts at sort of techno globalized world system. The first one was the Med/ME in Bronze Age, followed by at least 400 yrs of dark ages, and while the Egypt was for most of the time the boss it has not reached the levels of direct control like later under the “ver2.0” in Roman Empire system.
The second attempt was the Classical Antiquity – Roman Empire, which was slightly different model, from multi node arrangement it turned into a single central node, consuming the resources of the periphery, but at some stages the trade flows between the lesser nodes could be also discussed in terms of globalization patterns. Also, the dark ages then followed very differently, since many nodes survived and relatively thrived afterwards (East Roman Empire half – Byzantium, etc.), so the dark ages were regionally/time-wise delimited process.
And the third one is obviously our age, especially since the times of long distance fiat credit banking, so at least from ~17th century, consolidating into more or less single global cartel entity solidifying ~100yrs ago and few ad-hoc non/occasionally cooperating nodes such as USSR (early nationalist autarky ver; trockite-lite ver later), China (nationalist autarky; from ~1970s mixed model experimenting). The amount of resources used, trade flows, population surge, waste-enviro impact-destruction has again in this third attempt reached much higher levels by several factors.
As you can see, the conditions varied quite a bit during each of these periods, they had their own sub cycles, and peculiarities. Now, the “speed demon collapsniks” claim it all doesn’t matter in such fragile and “unique” global JIT system of ours now, while we have for example currently great difference between the (over)aged infrastructure of the US in contrast to that of newish and expanding in China etc. I’d posit, these nuances are very important afterall, and will help shape the later set of sub cycles towards the end of our period as well. Also, it may materialize very possibly in domains such as foreign help, aka how not to let certain stuff go kaboom (spent fuel ponds) around the world..
“Funny .. those were the very warning bells of advice Jimmy Carter gave the US back in the 70’s .. which promptly lost him the election to Greed is Good and Too Much is Never Enough King Ronald . And here we are . Dealing with the consequences Carter warned us of … thanks to King Ronald and his UK lapdog Iron Lady”
Very well put TJ! Also, one of the govt. funded projects Carter started was on Algae Oil and out of several hundred strains two in particular were very promising for scaling up to larger production. That’s what they were just about to do, i.e. scale up for industrial production of algae oil with those two best strains when Carter lost to Reagan and it was defunded and the whole program disposed of permanently. We will never know what may have developed over the decades out of that govt. funded program but we sure know it never had a chance once it was sh#tcanned.
Thank the heavens that the fool Carter lost…
This symbolizes how much of a koombaya klown Carter was:
Jimmy Carter installed 32 solar panels on the White House roof when he was president in the late 1970s. When Ronald Reagan took office in 1981, one of his first actions as president was to have the panels, which his chief-of-staff allegedly said Reagan felt were “just a joke,” removed.
If the US had continued down Carter’s Road to Ruin — the world would have collapsed decades ago.
As for Greed is Good – that is irrelevant — Greed is Us.
Don’t believe it?
Answer me this : If I had USD20,000,000 — and I offered to deposit it in your bank account today – no strings attached.
Would you refuse it?
Fast Eddy and HIS “world”! Would Collapse!!! Fast Eddy wake up, there is a much bigger world beyond BAU, don’t be so enthrocentric in how you see things.
THE SEVEN LAWS OF MONEY. The following laws were published in 1977 in ‘Seven laws of Money’ by Mike Phillips
The Seven Laws:
1. Do it! Money will come when you are doing the right thing.
2. Money has its own rules: records, budgets, saving, borrowing.
3. Money is a dream: a fantasy as alluring as the Pied Piper.
4. Money is a nightmare: in jail, robbery, fears of poverty.
5. You can never really give money away.
6. You can never really receive money as a gift.
7. There are worlds without money
Don’t let the title fool you: this has nothing to do with mutual funds, insurance premiums, brokerage houses, mortgages, small business loans or the GNP. Phillips & friends are interested in good karma, “”right livelihood,”” artists’ co-ops, free schools and communes. The friends who collaborated include Stewart Brand who fathered The Whole Earth Catalog, Salli Rasberry, a “”free spirit,”” Dick Raymond who started the Portola Institute and Jug n’ Candle, an impecunious wandering poet. Thus the anomaly of a money book which counsels that the end of good financial management is not more money but “”having a lot of fun”” or, as the First Law states: “”Do It! Money Will Come When You Are Doing the Right Thing.”” Those to whom the dollar is almighty are doomed to frustration, insecurity and loneliness. In a cosmic sense money is “”a dream,”” a fantasy as alluring as the Pied Piper. Phillips, himself a dropped-out banker, apparently believes that the media is the message and renders much of his mystical understanding of the cash flow via poetry and parable. One chapter gives some rudimentary advice on such things as savings, budgets, checking accounts and loans — obviously for folks who’ve spent most of their lives outside or on the fringes of the straight world. An easy book to like; a hard one to take seriously.
Fast Eddy, I feel very sorry for you. The system has warped your soul.
I wonder how much longer before you pack it in and head back to Hong Kong
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TkO_dVkfjV0
Too bad that Eddy even had a finite thought.LOL
Are you trying to make a point?
Yes, 99% of back to landers, homesteaders, end up BACK to whence they came within a few years. Not too many Helen and Scott Nearings out there.
If there is no collapse this year, you go back
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZK7hb1eidow
Maybe we can start a betting pool?
LOL
I still have no idea what you are on about
The list you are providing looks like it might have had some substance at one time. As we approach limits, it becomes less and less true. For example, “1. Do it! Money will come when you are doing the right thing,” sort of works, when we are far away from limits. When we are approaching limits, it is hard for young people to figure out anything that works. They try education in one field, and then another, hoping that they will find a job they sort of like that pays enough to support a house and family, and will pay back the educational debt. It doesn’t work, no matter how hard they tr
“As for Greed is Good – that is irrelevant — Greed is Us.
Don’t believe it?
Answer me this : If I had USD20,000,000 — and I offered to deposit it in your bank account today – no strings attached.”
Or more to the point ask someone if their willing to give up their retirement or savings. The seeds of the infinite growth mantra are planted by the very people who want a return on investment, i.e. pretty much everyone.. Greed is us indeed.
Exactly. It would be easier to snatch a bone from a vicious dog than to take away an entitlement from a person….
Surely the Koombayists would be willing to work for just the bare minimum….. just enough to be able to afford food and a simple roof over their heads.
But NNNNNNooooooooo!!! They go on strike for higher wages – to buy more stuff!
They insist on a minimum wage — and want it to be raised regularly – so they can buy more stuff!!!
Greedy greedy greedy!!!
Yet they think Gordon Gecko is somehow different from them.
He is different — he is smarter — while the donkeys scramble in the dirt chasing coins …. he is up there in his corner office …. listening to the ka-ching ka-ching of the register…
Both want the same thing though – MORE! MOAR MOAR MOAR….
I am sure that Jimmy Carter meant well. He wore his sweater, and tried to convince Americans to conserve energy. Of course, he was not re-elected. After this lesson, no other president wanted to follow the same approach.
Green Groupies are usually well-intentioned …. no doubt about that.
But they are dangerous.
The “rules” say that when you lose an election, you retire and write a book. But if what you were doing was indispensable, that approach to politics is inappropriate. If you’re doing something indispensable, “democracy” should not get in the way of doing it. You have to find a way to keep doing it…by any means necessary. Life before democracy!!!!!
You won’t like downsizing
Our most recent history shows that the slightest slowdown of our current economy by just a few percentage points brings an immediate chaos of unemployment and global destabilisation. Yet somehow that won’t apply to a permanent ‘downsizing’; that seems to follow a different set of social rules, as if we can do it and still retain a civilised existence. And of course without downsizing wages too much. We will still expect to eat, buy ‘stuff’ and carry on in employment and even retain our wheels, with the strange certainty that as long as we have wheels, we will have prosperity by involving ourselves in the exchanges of trade that will not differ much to what we have now.
http://www.endofmore.com/?p=1464
Less =
https://i0.wp.com/www.fivestarsandamoon.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Deflation-Downward-Spiral-Singapore.jpg
“Nanogrids, Microgrids, and Big Data: The Future of the Power Grid
“Distributed generation and automated transactions will change how we produce and consume electricity”
http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/renewables/nanogrids-microgrids-and-big-data-the-future-of-the-power-grid?utm_source=MIT+Technology+Review&utm_campaign=152aff0c09-The_Download_2017-03-30&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_997ed6f472-152aff0c09-153961373
http://spectrum.ieee.org/image/Mjg4MDMxMw.jpeg
“Growth in wind and solar has been brisk. The two together represent roughly 10 percent of the world’s installed capacity but contribute only about 4 percent of production.”
4% is far from dominating the world’s electricity production.
Without the fossil-fuel-based infrastructure, would the power grids even exist?
Wind growth looks linear.
I agree. The generation is just an add-on to the regular system. Without the regular system providing 24/7/375 backup, it doesn’t work. Someone must pay the regular system for sitting around idle. Wind and solar can’t possibly do this.
“Wind and solar can’t possibly do this.” – I agree. Solar and wind are energy capture devices. And the energy they capture is intermittent in nature. And the energy that is captured is converted to electricity. So it is also a lossy process.
Take fossil fuels, coal for example. Coal can be directly burned and produce heat AT ANY TIME DAY OR NIGHT! It is a source of fuel. You cannot do that with solar PV or wind turbines. Coal and wind turbines are not even comparable. However, that does not stop folks from creating inventive ways to compare solar PV, wind turbines and coal. This is done by a slight of hand with math to make them seem comparable – but, they are not.
To make matters worse (for solar PV and wind turbines) our infrastructure is already set up to burn organic carbon based fuels directly to move pistons and turn turbines to do useful work. Solar PV and wind turbines cannot do that and therefore do not fit into our current infrastructure – they piggy back off of it. They are parasitic. Everything I have learned about solar PV and wind turbines tells me that they will increase fossil fuel energy consumption not replace it.
Wind and solar can be stored in Tesla’s commercial sized batteries and fed back into the system, eliminating problems associated with intermittency and particularly at night. They are being used in Kauai and other locations recently being installed. Do a Google search on it.
Who will buy the battery, load it (with what electricity?) and feed it back (when) and who will pay?
How many charge/discharge cycles will these do before replacement is needed?
“Wind and solar can be stored in Tesla’s commercial sized batteries and fed back into the system, eliminating problems associated with intermittency and particularly at night” – Adding batteries adds cost and complexity that is not needed with coal and natural gas. That is why coal and natural gas are superior to wind turbines and solar panels. They don’t need crutches and band aids to make them work.
Elon says he can solve Australia’s problems…. hahaha
So can I – just build more coal powered electricity plants.
Simple
What about if we hooked the windmills up to the solar panels … and on sunny days with no wind… the electricity from the solar panels would power the windmills making them spin and creating electricity? Surely if we did that we could quickly wean off the fossil fuels?
“Everything I have learned about solar PV and wind turbines tells me that they will increase fossil fuel energy consumption not replace it.”
+++++++++++++
Yup! It’s a mass delusion, and add batteries to the mix and it’s even worse.
Coal can certainly be burned at any time to produce heat, but in order to produce cheap electricity it must be burned in large plants at high utilization (both temporally and output). That is why coal and nuclear are baseload resources which you supplement with NG (peaker plants) or hydro. They also take a long amount of time to plan and build and large upfront costs that must be financed. If you overbuild, you still have to pay for your idle (or worse, warm standby) plants.
Wind and solar present a different problem: they only produce cheap energy in favorable locations at favorable times. At other places & times energy can be moderate to expensive. This underproduction problem can just as easily be solved by the NG or hydro fairy the same way the overproduction problem of coal/nuclear is solved.
Adding in a small amount of (location optimized) wind or solar to a traditional baseload system provides net benefit because it reduces the amount of NG burned without affecting baseload. NG plants idle more but they’re cheap and have a operational lifetimes dictated mostly by use. When you increase wind or solar beyond that small amount, you are now sometimes competing with your baseload. This means for this time period the wind or solar is redundant with the legacy plant, increasing overall costs. If you have access to conventional hydro, you can change its usage to function like a battery and (up to a point) retain most of this redundant power (but this often requires turbine replacement/management, coordination, payment structure changes, etc) at very low cost (in some cases like Norway it can even handle seasonal deficits). Some other locations have access to pumped hydro opportunities that make short term storage cost effective.
If there is a future, it is not in coal or today’s fission. Theoretically, demand can be shifted to align with supply. This has occurred spatially since the beginning of electricity, where large energy users locate themselves where there is abundant, cheap energy. It also happens temporally where pretty much all power companies offer time of use plans. Not only can this shifting (theoretically) make a wind or solar predominant system work, it also allows legacy plants to provide value (to pay their bonds).
Currently in the US, NG is cheaper than everything else and doesn’t require lots of planning or investment so that is what is being added anywhere near pipelines. Long term this has good and bad effects. The good is that the plants may be decentralized (it is cheaper and less risky to operate like this) and wind and solar can eventually take advantage of these microgrids. The bad is that NG will be desperately needed for the next century to transition to a society built to function without FF. And burning it for baseload needs while it is cheaper/kwh than coal ensures it will not be affordable long term. Much like oil, we need to reduce our usage to preserve this valuable resource at low cost.
Tesla sure gets a lot of headlines — and government subsidies.. for a car that basically does not exist
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qzDNTKqZ6OM/V3fPRxgFLlI/AAAAAAAAzRc/tFHUWfSsgoUNwc633cnKdOyGT1ELUgYzgCLcB/s1600/USA%2Bbest-selling%2Bautos%2Bmarket%2Bshare%2Bchart%2BJune%2B2016.jpg
there is little point in examining various energy sources in isolation
without mechanisms by which it can be utilised, energy is like giving yourself a round of one handed applause.
when Faraday demonsrtated electrical existence in the 1820s, it was of little practical use until Edison developed the devices by which it could be put to use 50 years later
Good point!
Natural gas prices vary a lot. They are now higher than they have been, but in general their prices have been too low for profitability. The big issue is keeping the prices high enough to encourage natural gas production. Strange as it may seem, wind and solar tend to drive natural gas prices lower, because of their subsidies. Thus, they tend to put the natural gas that they need for backup out of business. This is not really a sustainable situation. I don’t see any possibility of keeping natural gas prices up high enough until next century.
The total cost of the whole arrangement, including electricity needed for backup, is extremely expensive. This is not something a person sees when a person only looks at “bid prices” for wind energy, by itself. Residentially electricity prices in Europe tend to be extremely high, if countries try to use very much wind and solar. This is not a point most people are aware of.
You need to read some of my articles on wind and solar. For example, https://ourfiniteworld.com/2017/01/30/the-wind-and-solar-will-save-us-delusion/
I read all your articles, but I certainly disagree on points. Germany has such high consumer rates because 1) they shut down nuke and coal plants way before they were paid for, the former being an over-reaction to fukushima 2) renewables were thrown in early in its learning curve 3) residential solar programs were very expensive boondoggles 4) Germans have refused new HV wires to transport excess energy in the north to the energy hungry south; instead it exports surplus to neighboring countries in the north and buys it back in the south.
Germany’s Expensive Gamble on Renewable Energy : Germany’s electricity prices soar to more than double that of the USA because when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind does not blow they have to operate and pay for a completely separate back up system that is fueled by lignite coal http://www.wsj.com/articles/germanys-expensive-gamble-on-renewable-energy-1409106602
Why Germany’s nuclear phaseout is leading to more coal burning
Between 2011 and 2015 Germany will open 10.7 GW of new coal fired power stations. This is more new coal coal capacity than was constructed in the entire two decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall. The expected annual electricity production of these power stations will far exceed that of existing solar panels and will be approximately the same as that of Germany’s existing solar panels and wind turbines combined. Solar panels and wind turbines however have expected life spans of no more than 25 years. Coal power plants typically last 50 years or longer. At best you could call the recent developments in Germany’s electricity sector contradictory. https://carboncounter.wordpress.com/2015/06/06/why-germanys-nuclear-phaseout-is-leading-to-more-coal-burning/
Germany Runs Up Against the Limits of Renewables
Even as Germany adds lots of wind and solar power to the electric grid, the country’s carbon emissions are rising. Will the rest of the world learn from its lesson? After years of declines, Germany’s carbon emissions rose slightly in 2015, largely because the country produces much more electricity than it needs. That’s happening because even if there are times when renewables can supply nearly all of the electricity on the grid, the variability of those sources forces Germany to keep other power plants running. And in Germany, which is phasing out its nuclear plants, those other plants primarily burn dirty coal. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601514/germany-runs-up-against-the-limits-of-renewables/
Is there something in my post you disagree with? Or are you simply providing links for (some of) what I said?
#Carmaggedon Not Yet, But Another Wheel Came Off
What I’ve been fretting about – declining auto sales despite the biggest incentives ever to overleveraged car buyers as the bottom is falling out of subprime auto loans and used car values – is now a reality.
Total new vehicle sales in March fell 1.6% year-over-year to 1.556 million cars and light trucks, according to Autodata, and are now down 1.5% year-to-date, with truck sales rising 5.2% and car sales plunging 10.6%.
This wouldn’t be so bad – just an “unexpected” sales decline – if automakers had not shelled out $3,768 per new vehicle sold, the highest ever for any March, according to J.D. Power. This would be about 10.4% of suggested retail price. The prior record for March occurred in 2009 as the industry was collapsing.
These are unit sales by franchised dealers to their customers, and by manufacturers to large fleets and to their own employees under their employee programs.
Inventories are bloated, and the number of days a vehicle sits on a dealer lot before being sold rose to 70 days on average in March, according to J.D. Power – the longest since July 2009.
Here’s the thing: As incentive spending in March surged 13.4% year-over-year, according to TrueCar estimates, total vehicle sales fell 1.5%!
“We think the industry is plateauing at some levels,” Ford Chief Economist Emily Kolinski Morris mused on a conference call.
And it surprised the industry soothsayers. TrueCar figured that sales would increase 0.2% to 1.586 million new cars and light trucks. J.D. Power and LMC Automotive expected sales to increase by 1.9%, to 1.62 million units, based on the surge in incentive spending. At the time (March 26), I just couldn’t help myself pooh-poohing these estimates:
If sales nevertheless fall, everyone will blame the winter storm that arrived in the winter – “unexpectedly” or something. And it is possible that sales might fall. There was no winter storm in February, which was one of the warmest Februaries on record. Yet, sales in February fell 1.1% year-over year. They edged down in January too. And sales in both months combined fell 1.4% from the same period a year ago.
To accomplish the feat of a 1.5% sales decline in March, auto makers spent a total of $5.54 billion in incentives, according to TrueCar estimates.
More http://wolfstreet.com/2017/04/04/carmaggedon-not-yet-declining-auto-sales-record-incentives/
http://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/US-automaker-sales-v-incentives.png
At this rate, GM would spend nearly $4 billion a quarter. Alas, in Q1 2015, GM reported global net income of only $2 billion. This math isn’t going to work out over the longer term.
And because we’re talking about a crazy month in the car business, a word about Tesla.
It sold 4,050 new vehicles in the US in March, according to Autodata. All automakers together sold 1.56 million new vehicles in the US. Tesla isn’t even a rounding error in this number. It doesn’t show up. It has lost money every year of its 10 years of existence, including $1.86 billion over the past three years.
It might never make any money. It might instead continue burning through investor money at an astounding clip.
Yet its shares surged today, and its market capitalization hit $45.4 billion, and intraday exceeded Ford’s market cap. That’s how crazy things have gotten.
See – Tesla is the model for the other auto makers… lose billions and prosper.
Is FE two people? No one can type that much.
This idi.. just doesn’t use quote marks.
He is the legendary “12 monkeys” … sitting at typewriters.
Only two?
The situation is crazy!
The Fed has got to be looking at the retail and auto sectors….. these are potential triggers…
Difficult to see how they can turn this around….
Yeah. I heard from a friend Tesla passed Ford in market cap today, I sent him this:
https://test59535.files.wordpress.com/2017/04/img_0051.jpg
See!
Elon is the Saviour – he is Jesus 2.0….
This is evidence of it – it is a miracle — right up there with walking on water…
He has been sent to earth to forgive us our sins of burning up all the carbon and wrecking the planet….
Some day when the dust settles on the end of BAU … and a utopian society of Green Groupies and Preppers emerges — where there is only peace and love — and wholesome organic food – and iphones and EVs for all….
A new religion will emerge — supplanting all others — it will be called Tesla — and it’s founder will be revered…
People will give thanks to Elon — they will pray to him every day…
I volunteer to nail Elon to the cross … someone has to do it. Fast Pilate Eddy … I am also working on a new song for utopia … it’s called Give War a Chance… All we are saying.. is Give War a Chance…. catchy … huh?
I agree that this is absurd.
Tesla, like most startups, are investing vast sums of R&D (and infrastructure/capex) in order to be massively profitable in the future. They don’t have to try to be a market leader in batteries, BMS, solar panels/roofing tiles, autonomous driving etc etc. But if they can figure out a way to make those compliment each other and the market is going to give them sufficient money to do so (with the expectation of high returns, like a startup), then why not? They may fail spectacularly but they’re certainly making a good show of (technical and marketing) achievement so far (with potential for future returns).
Um…. Tesla is not a start up — but feel free to just keep making stuff up… it seems that this is your calling in life
Founded July 1, 2003; 13 years ago (as Tesla Motors)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.
And because we’re talking about a crazy month in the car business, a word about Tesla. It sold 4,050 new vehicles in the US in March, according to Autodata.
All automakers together sold 1.56 million new vehicles in the US. Tesla isn’t even a rounding error in this number. It’s invisibly small. It has lost money every year of its 10 years of existence, including $1.86 billion over the past three years. It might never make any money.
It might instead continue burning through investor money at an astounding clip.
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/04/04/carmaggedon-not-yet-declining-auto-sales-record-incentives/
I’d imagine that more golf carts were sold in america in March
This is a F789ing joke.
“Tesla, like most startups”
Lol. You are clueless.
It’s a feast on FW today!!!
http://www.stevebloom.com/images/b/002351-SB1.jpg
Jeez … we better watch out or we’re gonna get fat on all these DelusiSTANIS
http://7657-presscdn-0-39.pagely.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Dachshund-before-diet.jpg
If Tesla was to actually succeed in creating a profitable EV. What patent have they got to prevent most other automakers from competing with them?
Funny … Mercedes and BMW both make electric cars… doesn’t seem to be impacting their market caps though… strange eh…
Now who would you buy an electric car from if you were delusional enough to go down that road….
Tesla is like Shale… it should not exist
DJ: They don’t have patents to prevent competition. What they do have:
1. The best battery management and charging tech (likely of any industry, but certainly auto) including many patents.
2. Resource acquisition contracts allowing for massive production capacity.
3. Fast charging networks along major highways.
4. Desirable cars/tech.
5. No dealerships or legacy obligations.
#5 is a big problem for the traditional automakers where most of their dealerships would prefer to sell gas cars that require more regular tuneups and their workers’ unions want humans more involved in assembly. If they get by that they hit #2 which gets more difficult and expensive every year (cobalt is really expensive to ramp up and lithium comes at either high expense or political risk). LG, Samsung, and smaller players are all ramping up larger cell sizes but the totals are not enough for major EV demand (much less the energy sector) . GM and Nissan will have access to good rates for 100k 60kwh units next year but should they want 500k in 2018 they will pay through the nose. Tesla already has 500k in the pipeline for 2018 (with any excess sold to energy instead of as M3s) and has access to 1M/yr starting in 2020.
Three months in a row of crummy sales, as interest rates start to rise. This shouldn’t be a huge surprise. With all of the vehicles coming off lease, there should be a lot of used car inventory as well.
I imagine that lease prices are rising as interest rates rise and as expected resale prices fall. Those leasing include a lot of young people who don’t have money for the down payment on a car. As lease payments rise, they will have a harder time affording to lease a car. They may be forced to cut back on other things.
On the car front: I live in a city that just upgraded its local commute distance interstate highway by widening 15 miles from 3 lanes each way to five, added sound walls to protect the ears of citizens and topped it all off with 3 flyovers to connect the spagetti junction. Granted we needed it since the city grew less than 0.1% in the last 12 months! 😖
I wonder how many homes and buildings, let alone sidewalks could have been built with all that steel, concrete and labor? And the worst part is that the flyovers are so high they don’t even provide decent shelter for the city’s countless homeless. What a country! “Barefoot water skiing” describes the last energy burn blowout quite well.
Sounds like Atlanta!
Morgan Stanley: Used Car Prices May Crash 50%
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-31/heres-why-used-car-prices-may-crash-50
That will destroy new car sales because….
A great many people will not be able to trade up to new cars because they will owe money on their car due to long amortization periods … which will be compounded by the fact that they won’t get very much to trade in or sell their current car.
So they will end up hanging onto their cars for longer periods — because they have no choice.
People are surprisingly loyal to the old system in many cultures.
The Han Empire of China died long time before it actually ended in 220 CE, but some people clung to the old system and continued it until 264 CE in a mountain hideaway.
The Emperor Go-Daigo of Japan restored old style direct rule by the Emperor in 1333. He was an incompetent ruler who abandoned his loyal vassals to die and listened to incompetent people, and he suffered a fatal defeat in 1336 but his supporters continued to be loyal to him, his son and his grandsons all the way till 1392.
The Byzantine Empire continued in Sparta (yes, that Sparta) for another decade after Constantinople fell.
The loyalty of some people to BAU can’t be underestimated – they will continue to serve their masters even thought the masters are bad and they are aware that the masters will easily throw them to the wolves. That’s because some people are simply wired to obey..
https://www.planetizen.com/node/91997/good-and-bad-planning-websites
Artleads • an hour ago
The sad truth is that planning-as-a-profession is an invention of a society with abundant surplus energy, and that world has gone with the wind.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/
Consistency with this view would demand that “planning” restrict itself to rearranging the deck chairs and organizing the passengers to be much more rational and imaginative than they might otherwise be. For want of a better term, I’d call that “passive planning.”
Its part of the conceit of the useful idiots; go get a DIP-loma in planning and then think you know best how to organise other peoples lives. The dormitory suburbs a-la Kunstlers raves are their crowning achievement. I wonder how many commuters stuck in traffic wonder at the wisdom of such seperation of work and residence across so many job types that could easily share spaces.
My local town (Taupo) has forced small enterprises back into town mainly because the local mafia-landlords had so many of their delapidated downtown buildings becoming vacant. I asked one of the town planners involved whether we should be learning the Russian national anthem?
The huge amount of time spent commuting is indeed a big problem.
One of the problems seems to be two spouses working. If the two jobs are far apart, one of the partners must commute. Another problem is the freqent layoffs by employers. Once one partner is laid off, it becomes difficult to afford the chosen housing. If another job is found, it is rarely close by the chosen housing. It is expensive to sell a house. It would be easier if everyone lived in rental units.
By the way, Atlanta does not follow the standard model well. Housing and businesses are mixed all over. Public transport becomes a problem, because there is little concentration in where people are traveling to work.
“Housing and businesses are mixed all over. Public transport becomes a problem, because there is little concentration in where people are traveling to work”
Even worse in Tampa. At least you have a subway system!
Combined with the reluctance of non-Africans to ride the Marta, moving the Africans rapidly through Atlanta.
Good for you. Baby steps. David vs Goliath.
Planning seems to always assume that business as usual will continue indefinitely. It cannot see turning points, so seems to put in place a lot of useless infrastructure that is no longer optimal. For example, if an are adds a lot of new home, it will have a lot of children in school for a while. But rather rapidly, those young people will leave, leaving a lot of empty nesters in houses that are too big for them.
Perhaps that’s even an overly optimistic view of planning, implying it has noble intentions at its root. I do think planners as people have noble intentions (I’m the case in point), but the true function of the profession is to facilitate the growth of the cancer. Planning maps out the path to the maximum power principle, builds the infrastructure to bring it into reality, and applies social lubricant to all the squeeky parts that might prevent it from happening.
I can’t speak for planning in the U.S., I’m a planner elsewhere in the world, but most I know are enthusiastic about creating ‘sustainable’ (lol) communities.
The problem is politics gets in the way, usually involving a politician chasing votes with a populist quick fix, and we end up with undesirable outcomes such as car dependency, inefficient resource allocation, etc, etc.
It is politicians that go to elections with infrastructure promises, and it is politicians that sign off on strategic plans. They aren’t interested in hearing anything that might remotely suggest that endless growth isn’t possible. Nor are they interested in hearing evidence that their pet infrastructure project is a poor use of resources if that was their election promise.
They want to rezone that prime agricultural land for housing.
They want to build that new car dependent suburb miles away from anything.
They want to invest in freeways rather than public transport.
Because thats what the voting public, the tabloids, and the shock jocks want. Who cares that the planners have evidence that demonstrates its a bad idea? Some other government will be in power by the time that becomes apparent.
Let me ask you this FE, do you have any idea what criticality means with respect to fissile material? Do you have any idea how a nuclear bomb works? Fuel rods don’t explode without something very powerful forcing them and keeping them together. If they go critical, they’d heat up and expand until they are sub-critical again. Fire still very bad though, you just don’t understand nuclear physics is all.
Neither do you, Tim. If the rods go critical, they will explode. Look up chain reaction, and uncontrolled chain reaction. It’s called a prompt criticality, like what probably happened at Fukushima reactor no. 4, per Arnie Gundersson.
Shall we watch Fukushima explode:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3_ZRO5oATk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dm9wL7uPdns
Now of course this explosion was caused by the rods in the reactor … NOT the thousands of rods in the spent fuel ponds….
The explosion would be a lot bigger if it involved the ponds — due to the volumes of fuel involved.
If the spent fuel rods had exploded then we would have experienced ‘The Devil’s Scenario’
Japan’s chief cabinet secretary called it “the devil’s scenario.”
Two weeks after the 11 March 2011 earthquake and tsunami devastated the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, causing three nuclear reactors to melt down and release radioactive plumes, officials were bracing for even worse.
They feared that spent fuel stored in the reactor halls would catch fire and send radioactive smoke across a much wider swath of eastern Japan, including Tokyo.
A major spent fuel fire at a U.S. nuclear plant “could dwarf the horrific consequences of the Fukushima accident,”
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/05/burning-reactor-fuel-could-have-worsened-fukushima-disaster
Attention Doomsday Preppers! Attention Doomsday Preppers!
Are you feeling despondent after reading all of these FACTS?
Are you feeling like all your efforts to ready yourself for the end of BAU are pointless?
Are doubts creeping in — are you wasting money … are you wasting time that could be better spent on enjoying the little time we have left?
It was already a long shot — what with the hordes who will be coming for your food … the diseases that will pour over the land… the drudgery of doing everything by hand including washing clothes… chopping trees… then there will be the violent desperate people headed to your oasis…
And now — the coup de grace — the invisible killer — everything you eat drink and breathe… will be chock full of cesium and other cancer causing demons….
C’est la vie… C’est la vie….
Nothing wrong with throwing the towel in …
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/09/11/01/382E9DB700000578-0-image-a-23_1473552962361.jpg
Yeah, it was just diffuse hydrogen gas-
https://youtu.be/W69thuv4e3o
Just blowing off a little steam…
Possible, but not likely. Again, if all you want to read is doom you will find it.
If you look for expert opinions, instead of listening to Arnie Gundersson on youtube or something to find your triggers, go to the scholar.google.com.
Here are two that you may find enlightening:
https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML0317/ML031760377.pdf
https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML0317/ML031760555.pdf
I should have said “detonate” not “explode”. My point still stands. Fire is a real threat, supercriticality resulting in the detonation of the rod(s), as in a nuclear bomb Is not possible. I am not claiming a fire would not be catastrophic, would not cause an “explosion”. A fire would definitely be bad business. But this nonsense about it exploding with the force of 4 quazillion Hiroshima type bombs is pure nonsense.
I am told 1+1=2. That is just plain nonsense. I cannot explain or prove — it just is … because I don’t like that outcome.
I want it to be 10.
I am not a nuclear physicist… and unlike clowns like Kurt who just make stuff up because they know nothing…
I have to rely on experts like this guy who has won a Nobel Prize…
Dr. Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress is Scientist-in-Residence at CNS and holds an MSc and PhD in high energy physics from Carleton University, Canada, specializing in ultra-low radioactivity background detectors and has professional experience in the field of astroparticle physics, primarily neutrino physics.
http://www.miis.edu/academics/faculty/FDalnokiVeress/node/23025
The problem is if the spent fuel gets too close, they will produce a fission reaction and explode with a force much larger than any fission bomb given the total amount of fuel on the site. All the fuel in all the reactors and all the storage pools at this site (1760 tons of Uranium per slide #4) would be consumed in such a mega-explosion. In comparison, Fat Man and Little Boy weapons dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki contained less than a hundred pounds each of fissile material
See more at: http://www.dcbureau.org/20110314781/natural-resources-news-service/fission-criticality-in-cooling-ponds-threaten-explosion-at-fukushima.html
If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies.
http://science.time.com/2011/03/15/a-new-threat-in-japan-radioactive-spent-fuel/
‘they will produce a fission reaction and explode with a force much larger than any fission bomb’
‘an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies’
Does that work for you? Or do you need more references?
I have more if you want….
Perhaps you can ask Kurt to make something up that contradicts the experts?
The Consequence of Cesium-137 Release
A 400 t PWR pool holds about 10 times more long-lived radioactivity than a reactor core. A radioactive release from such a pool would cause catastrophic consequences.
One major concern is the fission product cesium-137 (Cs-137), which made a major contribution (about three quarters) to the long-term radiological impact of the 1986 Chernobyl accident.
A spent fuel pool would contain tens of million curies of Cs-137. Cs-137 has a 30 year half-life; it is relatively volatile and a potent land contaminant.
In comparison, the April 1986 Chernobyl accident released about 2 Mega Curies (MCi) Cs-137 into the atmosphere from the core of the 1,000 MWe unit 4.
It is estimated that over 100,000 residents were permanently evacuated because of contamination by Cs-137.The total area of the radiation-control zone is about 10,000 km², in which the contamination level is greater than 15 Ci/km² of Cs-137. [6]
Assuming a 50-100% Cs137 release during a spent fuel fire, [8] the consequence of the Cs-137 exceed those of the Chernobyl accident 8-17 times (2MCi release from Chernobyl). Based on the wedge model, the contaminated land areas can be estimated. [9] For example, for a scenario of a 50% Cs-137 release from a 400 t SNF pool, about 95,000 km² (as far as 1,350 km) would be contaminated above 15 Ci/km² (as compared to 10,000 km² contaminated area above 15 Ci/km² at Chernobyl).
Harvard Kennedy School: http://www.belfercenter.org/publication/radiological-terrorism-sabotage-spent-fuel-pools
So…. a single pond would result in 8-17x Chernobyl’s release… let’s use the mid point of 12.5 Chernobyls…
4000 spent fuel ponds x 12.5 …. that looks to me like 50,000 Chernobyls …. pouring into the air and water… spreading across the land…
The toxic elements that would be released take many decades to degrade to the point where they are not dangerous.
So what this means is if you are alive post BAU — you will be eating things like Cesium —
Because it will spread far and wide and it will be in everything that you eat — fish – birds – animals — it will be in the air your breathe… it will be in the water you drink.
Facts About Cesium-137
Cesium-137 is the most abundant of the long-lived radionuclides released by the rupture of nuclear fuel rods
It has a 30 year half-life, meaning it persists in ecosystems 180-300 years
It is a water-soluble macro-nutrient and mimics Potassium
Quickly spreads throughout contaminated ecosystems
104 Curies per square mile of Cesium-137 contamination makes the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone uninhabitable. 15-40 Curies per square mile is still considered a strict dosage control zone.
In simple terms less than a dime’s weight of this toxic substance is sufficient to render New York’s Central Park uninhabitable.
Many nuclear power plants have more than 100 million Curies of Cesium-137 in storage.
One of the problematical effects of Cesium-137 is bio-accumulation. Toxins concentrate faster than they can be excreted. Its biological half-life is 110 days, meaning that if consumption stops, it will take around three years to fall to 1/1000th of the starting level. Concentrations magnify as one goes up the food chain just like mercury in fish. High concentrations can be found in meat, dairy, mushrooms and berries.
“Research done by Dr. Yuri Bandazhevsky, and his colleagues and students, in Belarus during the period 1991 through 1999, correlated whole body radiation levels of 10 to 30 Becquerels per kilogram of whole body weight with abnormal heart rhythms and levels of 50 Becquerels per kilogram of body weight with irreversible damage to the tissues of the heart and other vital organs.
http://whatisradiation.com/nuclear-fallout/effects-of-cesium-137.html
Shall we repeat the best part? Yes – why not:
Quickly spreads throughout contaminated ecosystems
104 Curies per square mile of Cesium-137 contamination makes the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone uninhabitable. 15-40 Curies per square mile is still considered a strict dosage control zone.
In simple terms less than a dime’s weight of this toxic substance is sufficient to render New York’s Central Park uninhabitable.
Now your making sense. You have very accurately described the problem. It.s the release and spread of the fissile material that is the problem, not a nuclear bomb like detonation. We’re still F$&@&d either way. 🙂
I’ve never said this was akin to nuclear war… it is much worse than that
Do you actually read any of what you put on here? And do you just scan for something that triggers you? Where did Monsieur Dalnoki-Veress say anything about spent fuel exploding (driven by fission reaction that is)?
That quote is from “former nuclear engineer” Albert Donnay in your decidedly non-expert reference. Google is my friend and I can assume with more than random chance that this is the expert https://www.linkedin.com/in/albertdonnay/. Former nuclear engineer my a$$.
Nuclear power plant failures are bad. Nuclear armageddon because of that…nonsense.
You are far too prolific a poster here to go through more of your “contributions”..
And I’m afraid that if I “gaze long into the abyss, the abyss also gazes into me”. Still, I picked one of your comments by chance and I find nonsense.
Take a break and read this: https://www.mentalhelp.net/articles/defining-features-of-personality-disorders-distorted-thinking-patterns/
I’m a PhD physicist but I think it would be fare more interesting and enlightening to analyse your personality…
Are you a nuclear physicist? If not then who gives a F789 about your PHD. Congratulations on that.
In case you have not noticed… those 3 letters do not intimidate me. The very fact that you even post that indicates that you are a clown — a fool.
Are you ready to have your face shoved into a toilet bowl filled with sh-it?
Take a deeeeep breathe…..
If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies. Such a scenario would emit radioactive particles into the atmosphere.
Pick your poison. Fresh fuel is hotter and more radioactive, but is only one fuel assembly. A pool of spent fuel will have dozens of assemblies. One report from Sankei News said that there are over 700 fuel assemblies stored in one pool at Fukushima. If they all caught fire, radioactive particles—including those lasting for as long as a decade—would be released into the air and eventually contaminate the land or, worse, be inhaled by people.
“To me, the spent fuel is scarier. All those spent fuel assemblies are still extremely radioactive,” Dalnoki-Veress says.
http://science.time.com/2011/03/15/a-new-threat-in-japan-radioactive-spent-fuel/
Surely given you have a PHD (I am in awe!) you can read? Or maybe you have poor eye-sight?
If that is the case then I suggest you pick up a magnifying glass and read this – as soon as you clean the fecal matter that is dripping from your chin….
If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies
If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies
If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies
If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies
If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies
If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies
Would you like some more?
You sure you didn’t obtain that by collecting bubble gum wrappers and mailing them into ButtF789k University Instant PHD? How many do you need to collect — maybe I’ll get me one of those PHD’s then I can introduce myself at dinner parties as Dr Fast Eddy
Hang on a sec… before I let you go…. let me give you something to remember me by
https://godlovesordinarywomendotorg.files.wordpress.com/2016/03/knockout-muhammad-ali.jpg
Just in case you missed that the first time…
If that is the case then I suggest you pick up a magnifying glass and read this – as soon as you clean the fecal matter that is dripping from your chin….
If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies
If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies
If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies
If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies
If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies
If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies
If that is the case then I suggest you pick up a magnifying glass and read this – as soon as you clean the fecal matter that is dripping from your chin….
If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies
If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies
If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies
If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies
If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies
If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies
Ok. That was the greatest rant ever!!! I don’t like FE much, but that made me laugh. I really have no opinion on the nuclear fuel rod issue.
Word salads. Another tell tale.
Again, not for you but maybe for others to read:
https://www.mentalhelp.net/articles/why-don-t-people-know-they-have-a-personality-disorder/
Slow Eddy said:
“All the fuel in all the reactors and all the storage pools at this site (1760 tons of Uranium per slide #4) would be consumed in such a mega-explosion.”
Wrong
Repeat after me Slow Eddy:
Combustion != Detonation
I’m starting to wonder about your sanity. Are you actually afraid humanity won’t be wiped off the planet?
He’s just an abusive bully. That’s all.
I have two suggestions:
1. Block him from commenting at least for a few days.
2. Limit comments from everybody to 3 per day. (or some other reasonable number)
That’s MY challenge.
1. Block him from commenting at least for a few days.
2. Limit comments from everybody to 3 per day. (or some other reasonable number)
We all know that is not going to happen… that would be like telling the police to stop policing for a few days…
How about this:
http://www.payfasteddymoneytoreducecomments.com
For every $1000 contribution I will promise to reduce my comments by one per day.
If you want me to comment less then stop posting such stoopid comments to begin with … you will notice that 95% of my comments are in response to stoopidity…
I know it won’t happen. The comment section has gone supercritical a while ago. Apparently similar to the situation in Fukushima reactor #4 or #2 or whatever.
“If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies”. Something like this anyways.
Again, not for you but maybe for others to read:
https://www.mentalhelp.net/articles/why-don-t-people-know-they-have-a-personality-disorder/
Actually … it’s because The Core is The Core… the font of all wisdom, knowledge and truth — therefore The Core is the forum on FW.
All else is drivel and idiocracy.
I am working on a filter that can determine the IQ of every person reading FW…. if the measurement drops below 80… then the filter kicks in preventing them from publishing comments. I will pass the code to Gail when it is ready. There are currently a few glitches… it is unable to handle the large volumes of sub 80’s without freezing up
“Actually … it’s because The Core is The Core… the font of all wisdom, knowledge and truth — therefore The Core is the forum on FW.”
The Core says “If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies”. The irony doesn’t end.
I prefer your shorter comments. They are still word salads, but they are funny.
Again, not for you but maybe for others to read:
https://www.mentalhelp.net/articles/why-don-t-people-know-they-have-a-personality-disorder/
No … The Core does not say that…
This guy says that:
Dr. Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress
Dr. Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress is Scientist-in-Residence at CNS and holds an MSc and PhD in high energy physics from Carleton University, Canada, specializing in ultra-low radioactivity background detectors and has professional experience in the field of astroparticle physics, primarily neutrino physics.
He has been involved in several major discoveries in the field of neutrino physics and has worked on several international collaborations in Canada, Germany, Italy, and the United States (see below) including the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory (SNO), Double Chooz and Borexino experiments. He was a member of the SNO Collaboration that won the 2015 Nobel Prize in physics. He is also a laureate along with his team of the 2016 Breakthrough Prize in Physics.
Has anyone been able to reach him on the phone to tell him he has this all wrong? 831.647.4638
Looks like he’s in California – he should be in his office in about 9 hours….
For DJ
So here come those Swedes again! 🙂 Sorry, DJ, I’m not going for this. Where’s the soul, the madness in it?
http://www.moderncities.com/article/2017-mar-ikea-introduces-solar-powered-prefab-house
We spend $40+/day, for unaccompanied children up to $500/day, housing asylum seekers. I believe the IKEA solution is thought of as dirt cheap.
For our own new built houses the standard is ridiculous, and also lots of mandatory fees that are just hidden taxes.
I knew a lot of swedes who think we are having a housing bubble, kind of like the tulip bubble, where we have gone insane and paying a lot more than what it is worth.
I still haven’t met ONE who realises the pricing is “fair”, we just can’t afford living like this.
A good point: if one factors in the destructiveness of modern housing and the ‘development’ industry (above all when it is so badly built that it can only possibly last for a few decades, not centuries with timely repairs) it should be very expensive indeed.
It is very expensive: it is killing our ecosystem!
Not wealth, but Death. But peropel want everything that brings death to us all to be as cheap as possible: junk food, holidays, housing, clothes….
A nearby village is being destroyed by no less than 13,000 new crappy ‘homes’ (get the sentimentality?) ie investment vehicles. This is one of the few ‘Growth Hubs in Britain, God help us……
Agreed totally, Xabier. Maybe my mantra is not too far off the mark: “Developers are the most dangerous people on the face of the earth.”
But there are many baby steps in the opposite direction. As always, David against Goliath…
Grassroots Activism Wins a Road Diet Instead of a Road Widening in Toledo
https://www.planetizen.com/node/92047/grassroots-activism-wins-road-diet-instead-road-widening-toledo
Solar is a real problem because it produces next to no electricity in the winter, when it is needed most. Sweden may possibly be able to get around this problem, by burning lots of trees and with its hydropower. ( I would have to look at the details.) Still, these other businesses would need to be subsidized in the summer, to be able to provide the huge quantity of power needed in the winter. Where does this subsidy come from? Fossil fuels?
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/chinas-central-bank-completes-digital-currency-trial-blockchain/
Look mom – no hands! – because there are no people…
Uhhhh. Seen it two years ago. Faster Eddy, faster.
Good grief, I’ve been waiting soooo long for another one of your cut and paste things from whenever or zerohedge. Please, don’t leave us in suspense. We know you don’t have an original thought, but the waiting is killing us!!!
“We know you don’t have an original thought,”
LMAO – You’ve got vacuous FE pegged right.
Everyone gather around — you don’t get to see this very often — here we have two DelusiSTANIS communicating with each other.
As we all know DelusiSTANIS are the stupi.dest of the branches of the human species… they seldom have IQs of over 50.
Listen to their moronic chatter — back and forth back and forth…. something has upset them…
This is how they react when there idi-ocy is exposed…. they flail and screech and lash out with more stup.idity
Oh watch … they are trying to work out how to climb steps… they have big problems with that… they can spend hours trying to figure out how to get to the top …. they are bewildered by the simplest of things that other branches of the human species take for granted…
Take a break and read this: https://www.mentalhelp.net/articles/defining-features-of-personality-disorders-distorted-thinking-patterns/
All that infrastructure dedicated to shipping junk, most of which will be in the landfill in a year or two.
Here’s some of today’s headlines in local paper:
Gasoline prices are climbing toward historic highs in the Lower Mainland.
Prices were as high as $1.42.9 at dozens of gas stations Sunday from Vancouver to Surrey, Coquitlam and Maple Ridge. That is a 13-cent price hike from just a week ago, and 29 cents more than what motorists paid a year ago.
And the reason? There’s not enough of it, according to Dan McTeague at gasbuddy.com, a website that tracks gas prices across North America.
“There are very few sellers of gasoline in the Pacific Northwest market,” McTeague said Sunday. “There’s just not enough to go around.”
And the tenuous supply has been made even worse with two refineries in the region shut down for maintenance.
http://www.theprovince.com/news/local+news/gasoline+shortage+fuels+price+hike+lower+mainland/13252123/story.html
While on the subject of petrol…. I had some jerry cans full of diesel stored for about a year… I always keep some on hand for the final run into the rock cut….
I was told by a mechanic that it might degrade over the period – he suggested using it up by mixing it with fresh diesel … which I did… then I tried filling half the tank from empty — and no problems…
So I am wondering how long can one store diesel without it going off?
I am going to refill all my jerry cans this week.
I have stored diesel for over 2 years and had no problems (no mixing with fresh) ; but then I deliberately own some older gear (89 Nissan Safari, older Fergie tractors) cos I think they can cope with a lower specification/quality.
I had several Euro tier 3 forestry machines back in the day; I wouldn’t dare use anything but fresh and carefully transported fuel in them.
Much obliged. I’ll just buy then use after 12 months then replace … perhaps I will only have to fill once more….
I use “old” petrol (up to three years old) mixed with engine oil for the chainsaw and the bush cutter/weed whacker (both 2-stroke) and have no trouble. But my bigger farm machines running on pure petrol are a lot more fussy about their diet. So I’ve learned to avoid running them on anything over 6 months old.
FE, I would suggest you buy clothes and lots of them so that you don’t meet the man in the sky naked?
“Look, I come like a thief! Blessed is the one who stays awake and remains clothed, so as not to go naked and be shamefully exposed.” Rev. 16:15
Hi jerry, you failed your last bible study assignment, but this one should be easier:
Quote just one bible verse – a single verse – where your god demands that humans commit genocide, rape, murder, or slavery. (You pick the atrocity).
Take your time (there are so many horrific and immoral bible verses to choose from!!) and then get back to us on what you learned.
Oh, and please don’t choose this one from Psalm 137:9,
“Blessed is he who grabs your babies and smashes them against the rocks!”
Cause that’s too easy, everyone knows that one.
(Btw, extra points awarded for a bible verse that contains a command from god to commit genocide AND rape AND murder AND slavery – all in the same sentence!!)
Cheers.
I’m Lov’in it!
Jerry please do pull more quotes from god urging the faithful to murder and rape… perhaps a revised 10 Commandments… I am sure you can do a much better job than me since you have memorized the bible… and I take bibles from hotel rooms and use them to start the fire in the winter.,..
Though shall commit murder
Though shall rape
Though shall pillage…
Though shall smash babies on rocks…
Though shall borrow the neighbour’s wife for the orgy
Though shall gouge out the eyes of the enemy
Though shall commit genocide
And so on….
The religions of the world are self-organized, just like everything else. (This doesn’t make them wrong, by the way!) The problem is distinguishing between “own people” and “others.” Thou shalt not kill refers to own people. The world has had an over-population problem forever. The commandment cannot refer to the outside the group, if in total it is to act to keep world population under control.
The same holds for other commandments. How they really apply depends on context, and this is perfectly OK. It is part of what makes economies as dissipative structures work.
I enrolled in a world’s religion course in uni once upon a time… I wrote a paper arguing that Christianity was moving quickly in the direction of Satanism…
Essentially — Christianity was ‘eroding’ and changing (or ignoring) the rules whenever it was deemed convenient.. or demanded… Churches would need to excommunicate their entire flocks if they were to stick to the original rules….
I think that the majority of Christians would identify more with this….
Satan represents indulgence instead of abstinence.
Satan represents vital existence instead of spiritual pipe dreams.
Satan represents undefiled wisdom instead of hypocritical self-deceit.
Satan represents kindness to those who deserve it, instead of love wasted on ingrates.
Satan represents vengeance instead of turning the other cheek.
Satan represents responsibility to the responsible instead of concern for psychic vampires.
Satan represents man as just another animal who, because of his “divine spiritual and intellectual development”, has become the most vicious animal of all.
Satan represents all of the so-called sins, as they all lead to physical, mental, or emotional gratification.
Satan has been the best friend the Church has ever had, as he has kept it in business all these years.[134]
Based on my scant review of the old testament — it would appear that the rules are completely different from the new testament….
In fact they more closely resemble the rules above.
I can only conclude that the Devil is God — and that Libtards have messed with the original intent… hired a PR man to write a kinder gentler new testament … and we now have a bastardized message preached in churches….
And that because of these contradictory messages — Christians are mired in schizophrenia…
Inside a Christians head:
Thou Shall not kill.
Ok … no killing.
Thou shall kill if the person is not a Christian because we need to keep population under control.
Meanwhile we are ordered to breed like rats (although there are more humans on the planet than rat so that should be changed to breed like humans)
Ok so I can kill anyone who is not a Christian — if they ask why I am killing them what should I say? Just say it’s for the population control. Don’t feel bad – we are also exterminating rats…
It must be very confusing trying to keep all of this straight…. so much easier just to believe in computer simulation model.
“The religions of the world are self-organized…This doesn’t make them wrong, by the way!…”
No one claimed that self-organized things are wrong, what are you referring to?
“The problem is distinguishing between “own people” and “others”.”
That’s usually not a problem at all.
“Thou shalt not kill refers to own people.”
Really? What source says that? Are you saying that anyone has god’s permission to kill “others” anytime without restraint?
“The commandment [thou shalt not kill] cannot refer to the outside group, if it is to keep world population under control”.
So, “thou shall not kill” is a biblical injunction to keep the population of “outside groups” under control? Really? What source says that?
“How [commandments] really apply depends on context, and this is perfectly OK.”
Good grief.
So, you believe it’s “perfectly OK” to commit genocide, rape, murder, and slavery when god commands it – as long as it’s in “context” and is done to “outside groups”?
In a nearly unbroken record of excellent posts, Gail, this one is not just out of character, but bizarre and sinister. Did you run this by your editors before posting it?
One can only hope that you mis-spoke and didn’t really mean what you wrote. Or maybe you didn’t have your first cup of coffee yet, at 7:17 am, to warm up the old neurons…
Cheers.
In the second line, you say, “No one claimed that self-organized things are wrong, what are you referring to?”
What I am referring to is the belief you express that that everything needs to be judged from the perspective of contemporary values. Many other primates are very territorial. This is part of being a k-selected species. In humans, it seems like religions are closely tied in with the territoriality instinct (among other things). Religions act as a way of passing down a set of values and ways of doing things to a close knit group. But religions (even very similar religions) also act to encourage friction among groups. Especially when resources are short (partly because population has risen too high), there is often a lot of killing among groups. Unfortunately, that is simply the way it is, for many types of animals, including humans. This is part of what has kept human population from exploding even more than it has.
But on one hand we are told to love thy neighbour … to not murder ….
But on the other we are told we can murder our neighbour — for a range of reasons including him not believing in the same god as us.
The contradictions are epic.
My mamma always told me …. if you are going to tell a lie … you need to make sure it is mostly based on truth —- because otherwise you get all tangled up and you contradict yourself…
I guess god was never taught this…
hawkeye
… what I understand with Gail’s comment is that if different human communities are dissipative structures that compete with each other, religion has the function of being a social glue of a human community that increases efficiency in the way of dissipating the gradient . From that point of view religions are “not mistaken”.
Gail, you walk on very bloodied ground when you relativize human values.
Your apparent belief that it’s “perfectly OK” to use genocide, rape, murder, and slavery as tools for acquiring territory and resources in the modern world – because we used these tools in the past – is disturbing.
Does it need to be said there can be no BAU with that type of behavior, nor any modern industry or global trade with that kind of public policy?
Does it need to be pointed out that a return to genocide, rape, murder, and slavery is not just horrifically immoral, but will accelerate supply line disruption, shortages, social upheaval, state violence, war, and the financial and economic collapse you wish to avoid?
I’m surprised and disappointed that you don’t recognize the consequences of what you’re suggesting: because we practiced these atrocities in the past, therefore, we are forced to use them in the present?
I don’t think you really believe that. You’ve simply been caught doing some lazy thinking.
For the record, the commandment to not kill is more accurately translated as to not murder. There is a significant difference and the first would make defending yourself unjust.
Jerry, using Bible quotes to convert people with no interest in religion is as pointless as those same people thinking they have all these “got ya” quotes that “prove” the Bible is wrong or “God” is screwed in the head.
As if people here with no interest in religion have not heard or read the Bible before or no religious person has ever seriously considered passages like Psalm 137:9.
Deuteronomy 17
If there be found among you, within any of thy gates which the LORD thy God giveth thee, man or woman, that hath wrought wickedness in the sight of the LORD thy God, in transgressing his covenant; 17:3 And hath gone and served other gods, and worshipped them, either the sun, or moon, or any of the host of heaven, which I have not commanded; 17:4 And it be told thee, and thou hast heard of it, and enquired diligently, and, behold, it be true, and the thing certain, that such abomination is wrought in Israel; 17:5 Then shalt thou bring forth that man or that woman, which have committed that wicked thing, unto thy gates, even that man or that woman, and shalt stone them with stones, till they die.
Deuteronomy 13:
6 If your very own brother, or your son or daughter, or the wife you love, or your closest friend secretly entices you, saying, “Let us go and worship other gods” (gods that neither you nor your ancestors have known, 7 gods of the peoples around you, whether near or far, from one end of the land to the other), 8 do not yield to them or listen to them. Show them no pity. Do not spare them or shield them. 9 You must certainly put them to death. Your hand must be the first in putting them to death, and then the hands of all the people. 10 Stone them to death, because they tried to turn you away from the Lord your God, who brought you out of Egypt, out of the land of slavery. 11 Then all Israel will hear and be afraid, and no one among you will do such an evil thing again.
12 If you hear it said about one of the towns the Lord your God is giving you to live in 13 that troublemakers have arisen among you and have led the people of their town astray, saying, “Let us go and worship other gods” (gods you have not known), 14 then you must inquire, probe and investigate it thoroughly. And if it is true and it has been proved that this detestable thing has been done among you, 15 you must certainly put to the sword all who live in that town. You must destroy it completely, both its people and its livestock. 16 You are to gather all the plunder of the town into the middle of the public square and completely burn the town and all its plunder as a whole burnt offering to the Lord your God. That town is to remain a ruin forever, never to be rebuilt.
Which begs the question … if god exists… should he not be locked up for life?
Hitler has nothing on him….. Pol Pot is a nobody by comparison … the Khan boys… not even close
‘As if people here with no interest in religion have not heard or read the Bible before or no religious person has ever seriously considered passages like Psalm 137:9.’
Yes of course … they conveniently ignore that sort of stuff… pretending it doesn’t exist.
Once again:
Then shalt thou bring forth that man or that woman, which have committed that wicked thing, unto thy gates, even that man or that woman, and shalt stone them with stones, till they die.>/i>
Well, obviously, this is not meant to be taken literally. It refers to any make of ginger wine. As for “till they die”, it can be interpreted as “till they fall down paralytic.”
Stone them with fake stones made of styrofoam stones? God was such a prankster. He was only kidding. He didn’t mean real stones – of course not! What kind of god would he be if he commanded that!!!!
Hi joebanana, you wrote:
“…to not kill…to not murder…There is a significant difference…”
Nope, not if you read the last part of the bible – they’re both forbidden by the demand to “turn the other cheek” and “love your enemy”. You have to read the entire book, joe, to fully understand it’s gross contradiction, hypocrisy, and horror.
“…as pointless as…”got ya” quotes that prove the Bible is wrong…”
Nope, not pointless at all, just the opposite, clear evidence that shows the bible is morally corrupt, ethically criminal, and spiritually fraudulent.
“…or “God” is screwed in the head.”
Well, that’s a mild way of putting it. Today we use the term “psychopathic killer”.
“As if…no religious person has ever seriously considered passages like Psalm 137:9”
Nope, we know for certain that no religious person has ever seriously considered passages like Psalm 137:9. How do we know?…… because all those horrific passages are still in the bible. Any healthy, mature, morally and intellectually honest person would have thrown them out long ago.
And if, by chance, there was a religious person who did consider those passages seriously, well…they would no longer be religious. They would quickly become an atheist – or at least a deist – and walk away saying, “Grab a baby by the leg and smash it’s head against a rock? Follow the teachings of a book based on committing human atrocities? Nope, don’t want anything to do with that evil, vicious, and depraved nonsense.”
You seem like a nice person, joe, and you can stay that way by avoiding religious discussions.
Cheers.
Thanks Joebanana:
Good points. My interest however, was never to convert but to open the eyes to the very real possibility that we are the generation to whom passages like Mathew 25 has become applicable to. Since I first came across peak oil some 20 years ago now I have followed it with extreme interest. When the bible prophesies a time of 7 years of great tribulation coming upon earth which never existed and will never exist again it turns ones thoughts to teachings about the end. The deindustriliazation of our world could very well be what the bible was refffering to next to the lawlessness this will create. To me it only seems logical and when you add to this the increasing urgency of governments to implement a cashless society well the dominoes are all falling into place. If the bankers have their ways there will be a rationing system implemented and guess what – will they do this by chip implantation as people like Rockerfeller desired? If so we have the 666 as prophesied. And look they want to do what also —— legislate morality!!!! Wow!
Now as for FE and others wow truly wow! It’s a shame, a crime really to reject so much important and vital information regarding our future and our salvation for what an emotional response over something they know truly nothing about whatsoever biblical religion!!! Wow, the anger and hatred? I had no idea that when I quoted a few scriptures it would lead to this and what I’m going to begin by going back to grade level teachings about why such commands exist. O good grief if this is what education has come to in our universities religion is truly screwed? Unbeleivable and here we are about to descend into a tribulation the likes of which no generation of mankind has ever experienced ever period!!!!
Oh My F789ing God.
Here we are on FW talking about a pretend man in the sky…. who apparently needs money…
If this is the way it needs to be — then can we further how Christianity supports murder?
Here are some of the acts that justify murdering someone:
http://www.evilbible.com/evil-bible-home-page/murder-in-the-bible/
> Anyone arrogant enough to reject the verdict of the judge or of the priest who represents the LORD your God must be put to death. (Deuteronomy 17:12 NLT)
> You should not let a sorceress live. (Exodus 22:17 NAB)
> “If a man lies with a male as with a women, both of them shall be put to death for their abominable deed; they have forfeited their lives.” (Leviticus 20:13 NAB)
> A man or a woman who acts as a medium or fortuneteller shall be put to death by stoning; (Leviticus 20:27 NAB)
> Whoever strikes his father or mother shall be put to death. (Exodus 21:15 NAB)
> All who curse their father or mother must be put to death. (Leviticus 20:9 NLT)
> If a man commits adultery with another man’s wife, both the man and the woman must be put to death. (Leviticus 20:10 NLT)
> A priest’s daughter who loses her honor by committing fornication and thereby dishonors her father also, shall be burned to death. (Leviticus 21:9 NAB)
> Whoever sacrifices to any god, except the Lord alone, shall be doomed. (Exodus 22:19 NAB)
More to come….
> Whoever sacrifices to any god, except the Lord alone, shall be doomed. (Exodus 22:19 NAB)
> If you find it is true (that a person worships another god) and can prove that such a detestable act has occurred among you, you must attack that town and completely destroy all its inhabitants, as well as all the livestock. Then you must pile all the plunder in the middle of the street and burn it. (Deuteronomy 13:13-19 NLT)
> Ifevidence of the girls virginity is not found on her wedding night, they shall bring the girl to the entrance of her fathers house and there her townsman shall stone her to death (Deuteronomy 22:20-21 NAB)
> If your own full brother, or your son or daughter, or your beloved wife, or you intimate friend, entices you secretly to serve other gods but kill him. (Deuteronomy 13:7-12 NAB)
> Anyone who blasphemes the LORD’s name must be stoned to death by the whole community (Leviticus 24:10-16 NLT)
> Anyone who desecrates the Sabbath by working on it must die (Exodus 31:12-15 NLT)
More here http://www.evilbible.com/evil-bible-home-page/murder-in-the-bible/
We have had a problem with refinery outages causing local price spikes for a long time. Those price spikes help attract supplies from outside the region to be shipped in on trucks. They also encourage deferring purchases, or filling up tanks when a vehicle travels to an area where supplies are more abundant.
When local officials put caps on prices, these favorable impacts don’t occur.
From Bloomberg news : “Carmakers are using heavy discounts to try to trim inventory that’s swelled to the highest level in more than a decade. ” – The economy is looking more and more dire by the day. Lot of signs pointing to a repeat of the 2008 crash.
Full article here:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-03/honda-sales-miss-estimates-as-shift-to-suvs-hurts-accord-civic?cmpid=yhoo.headline&yptr=yahoo
U.S. Auto Sales Miss Estimates as Cars Plunge Despite Discounts
GM’s Chevy Malibu, Ford’s Fusion each decline more than 35%
Carmakers ‘out of room’ to increase spending on incentives
U.S. auto sales trailed estimates, with Kia Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. reporting some of the biggest declines, as heavy incentive spending failed to contain plunging demand for sedan and compact models. Carmakers’ shares fell.
Combined deliveries for Kia and its affiliate Hyundai Motor Co. slumped 11 percent, and Ford’s dropped 7.2 percent last month, bigger drops than analysts estimated. General Motors Co., Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV and Toyota Motor Corp. also fell short of expectations.
March was supposed to be the month U.S. auto sales rebounded from decreases in January and February. Instead, ample discounts failed to stem the tide for models like the Chevrolet Malibu and Ford Fusion, which are being surpassed by crossovers as the new American family vehicle of choice. Deliveries of those models each plunged by more than 35 percent in March.
Classic example of pushing on a string…. a case of doing ‘whatever it takes’ as in — tearing up loan regulations and letting just about anyone walk off the lot with a vehicle…. but eventually running out of new (rotting) meat to sell to…
If this cannot be reversed — and how do you reverse it? — then a pillar of the economy is going to get hammered — major layoffs — car companies will again need huge bail outs….
This will create fear and kill confidence in the recovery meme… which will cause people to reconsider spending … which could trigger a deflationary collapse….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=siwpn14IE7E
On the POSITIVE SIDE!!! Tesla seems to be able to prosper even though they lose thousands of dollars on every car sold….. so the real car makers could just ask the government for hundreds of billions in subsidies…. reduce the sale price of their cars by half selling at a loss …. tap shareholders for rights calls every 2nd quarter to cover the losses…. and we could stagger on for years!
From that linked article:
“The industry’s annualized sales pace, adjusted for seasonal trends, slowed to 16.6 million in March, from 16.7 million a year earlier, according to researcher Autodata Corp.”
16.6 is 99.4% of 16.7, so it doesn’t seem like such a big drop overall. Some carmakers are doing better than others is all it appears from the stats in the article.
Jeez … ok let’s play this like we are explaining this to a 5 year old.
Billy … the people don’t have much money because they don’t have jobs that pay them much.
Because they don’t have so much money they have trouble paying for stuff like food and clothes.
Sometimes the people don’t pay at all. Which means it is difficult for them to borrow money to pay for stuff.
People need cars to go to work. And take the kids to soccer practice.
Car companies need to sell lots and lots of cars or they will go out of business.
So the men who run America decided to lend money to these people even though they might not pay it back – so they could buy cars.
And everything was great for a few years.
But now things are not great.
A lot of those people are not paying the money back because — you guessed it – they don’t have enough money.
And the other problem is that those people who bought cars still owe money on them so they cannot sell their used cars and buy new ones.
And another problem is that the car companies cannot find any new poor people to sell cars to because they already bought cars.
So why not reduce the price of the cars you say? Very good idea Billy.
They have been doing that — they are reducing by many thousands of dollars – and that has been helpful up until now.
But even with bigger reductions they are unable to increase their sales.
And they cannot reduce by much more because then they will not make money when they sell the cars.
And if they don’t make money they will not make any cars.
And that would be a bad thing. For everyone. Including the banks that the car companies owe money to.
Yes Billy the drop in sales is not that much but it is a drop.
The thing is…. if sales are dropping even with record discounts…. then how do you make sales grow again? Another GREAT question Billy!
What likely happens is we cannot reverse this — because we have used up all the tricks to help people buy cars already …
So like in 2007 sales were falling just a little (see that big fat arrow on the left) … and then:
http://dispatchist.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Auto-sales-drop.jpg
Thanks Uncle Fast. Now I get it! Even my brother Bergan who is a r.etar.d would be able to understand this.
That’s a lot of typing. For the 100th time – we get it. Go back into the storage container please.
Yes – I would hope you would when explained in those simple terms
Gold star for you
https://img.clipartfest.com/e487bd864b1e66a396405d31e094a3d2_reward-clipart-gold-star-clipart-free-gold-star-reward_800-800.png
I would like 100 gold stars please. And, I want them to all have FE on them. Thank you. Can you please cut and paste them like you do with all your contributions to this blog?
Kurt – are you familiar with foot notes.. references… that’s generally what you use when you want to support an argument with facts… unless of course you have the time to actually carry out the research on your own…
Of course you don’t know that … because there is no need to support your comments because wrong cannot be supported …
That is what defines a buffoon.
But I’m always correct and you keep peddling no turkey nonsense. Oh wait, doom coming tomorrow. Good call FE.
Look at the graph for goodness sakes. Other than a dip in the middle it’s flat. People have to realize that one of the ways business works these days is to make something out of nothing. Car sales have just not risen as much as the car companies would like so they put out this phony stuff to scare people the economy will cave if they don’t start buying more cars. It’s a form of advertisement. But nothing is there worth reporting about. It’s a non story. It gets people thinking about getting a car whereas they might not have even given it another thought. Next!
Auto sales fall 1.1% in Feb
http://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2017/03/01/auto-sales-fall-feb-slow-car-demand/98610420/
U.S. car, truck sales downshift in January; Toyota falls 11 percent
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-autos-idUSKBN15G4NF
Automakers sold 1.56 million new cars and trucks in March, a 1.6% decline compared with the same month a year ago.
U.S. auto industry sales fell short of expectations in March as car sales continued to plummet, raising concerns about rising incentives and bloated inventory even though the pace of new car sales remains robust from a historical standpoint.
http://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/2017/04/03/us-auto-sales-fall-16-march-industry-cools/99985380/
So… even with massive rebates … auto sales are falling… 3 months straight now….
And as it has been pointed out auto manufacturers cannot cut prices further — otherwise they ‘go Tesla’ and lose money on every auto they sell.
The takeaway — for someone with an IQ of 80 or higher — would be —- incentives are no longer driving the market — the market is falling — there appears to be no way to increase sales…
This is an ominous situation.
This is really not very complicated – tying one’s shoes is more challenging than understanding this.
Which part don’t you get?
More good news from the auto industry!
Despite massive incentives:
https://test59535.files.wordpress.com/2017/04/img_0050.png
“Automakers are using heavy discounts to try to trim inventory that’s swelled to the highest level in more than a decade.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-03/honda-sales-miss-estimates-as-shift-to-suvs-hurts-accord-civic
But no worries, it’s just a shift to SUVs so everything is A-OK. 👌
But as always, you get such heavy discounts only for (stupid) things unwanted, lolz, while brands which are currently in decent demand due to good match of affordability and practicality, e.g. in the entry/lower mid segment now such as Renault-Nissan (Dacia, AvtoVAZ, ..) or in upper segments, say LR-Jaguar, are actually in opposite trend increasing price per new models each release/facelift.
But ~99% shoppers are impulse buyers anyway (not mentioning targeting levels way up their income), not bothering with preceding rational analysis, what they actually need as a proper tool for their specific job..
If I ever get head hunted to run an investment bank…
Remind me never to hire you as an analyst….
Thanks for the nice compliment.
Yet, what do you not understand about today’s reality, e,g. Renault and LR-Jag waltzing (for now) above the graves of other brands, which overextended in stupid segments of the carz biz..
Moreover, my comment was more aimed at it from the viewpoint of a consumer. There are simply several long standing – verified truths, like not ever buying a car from ill performing company or too young new model product before subsequent technical fixes and refinements are done (i.e. after ~few years time of production, facelift etc.)
https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iHJBDwgwfNTs/v2/800x-1.png
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-04/danger-of-sell-off-in-u-s-stocks-grows-as-auto-sales-disappoint
Bad news = Good News.
In the new normal.
So this is absolutely fabulous …. I think I will open a bottle of champagne
For two decades, the U.S. was in a deflationary environment in which goods were cheaper to produce and cheaper to sell to consumers. That was buffered by record low interest rates, allowing many retailers to expand store counts quickly. But many retailers were selling in categories where
margins were extremely thin; categories like sporting goods or discount clothing.
Now, the deflationary spiral has bottomed. That has put pressures on margins for some retailers, even those that may have had positive cash flow.
The cost of operations has suddenly jumped up, “and that’s how you go bankrupt,” McLean said. “If you see further inflation, you’ll absolutely see an acceleration” in retail bankruptcies.
Beacon Economics founding partner Christopher Thornberg said the last time retail saw a spike in bankruptcies, during the Great Recession, it was clearly caused by consumer stress.
This time, consumers have not been reticent to spend their dollars. This past February alone, average consumer spending was the highest it had been since 2008, according to Gallup. And the rate appears to be increasing still.
Retail Hell: Bankruptcies Now Higher Than During Great Recession
https://www.forbes.com/sites/bisnow/2017/03/21/retail-hell-bankruptcies-now-higher-than-during-great-recession/2/#64adb85c4fdd
For Thornberg, that means Amazon is taking a bigger bite out of the brick-and-mortar sector than ever before.
While many are quick to point out online retailing only accounts for some 9% of all retail sales, McLean said that masks a greater truth. When you strip out gas, food services, autos and auto parts, Amazon now commands 25% of the incremental growth of U.S. retail sales as people’s buying habits increasingly go online, especially Millennials, who make up a disproportionate number of online consumers.
Not only do they shop differently, they are becoming a larger portion of the spending over time,” McLean said. “And they’re nowhere near the peak
Heidi Miller owns two boutique women’s clothing stores in California; one in Carlsbad and the other in Laguna Beach. She is a small retail veteran, having owned her business, Tight Assets, for 28 years. At one time, she owned as many as five stores. While the internet has taken business from her stores, it is not solely to blame.
“The economy is still bad. We haven’t come out of it yet,” Miller said. Miller said she always expects consumers to pull back on spending during election years. And this one, in her mind, was particularly divisive. But she said it is more than just political angst.
Several small clothing stores and restaurants have gone out of business in the fairly prosperous small town near me. The margins are thin. One owner of a clothing store told me they just needed two more purchases a day to make it. People are shopping online and they have cut back just enough on eating out to make it tough for the family oriented restaurants.
“People are shopping online…”
That’s it right there. Our family shifted to buying cloths online for two main reasons; considerably much more available, especially in different shoe sizes and much lower prices. With Amazon Prime delivery is free, although getting prime costs a little once a year. However I can see how unfortunate this is for retailers, but in a way they shot themselves in the foot by reducing inventory and number of shoe sizes available. The situation for walk in retailers is just going to get worse, much worse. The same thing is happening to Art. People see something they like from a particular artist in a fancy retail store then go home and find it online much cheaper and they don’t have to lug it around with them while on vacation.
It’s not so much the economy is suffering as much as people are just shopping online more every year. That’s where the money is going.
Always remember:
The MSM exists to control what you think.
The MSM exists to control what you think.
The MSM exists to control what you think.
Therefore – if you read anything in the MSM always be skeptical – always assume it is a lie. Because most of the time it is a lie.
The MSM tells you that the US has full employment. Under 5%. Do you believe that? If yes then what type of drugs are you taking and can I have some
The MSM tells you that the reason coal burning is dropping is because solar energy is replacing coal. Do you believe that? Again…. can I have some.
The MSM tells you the reason that retailers are collapsing is because of Amazon.
Well Amazon has been around for years… and people have been shopping online… So maybe there is another reason — maybe people are just tapped out… and spending less… because unemployment is far worse than we are told…. because most new jobs are part time and low paying…. because labour participation is actually hovering around record all-time lows (because a lot of people have just given up looking for jobs)…
So maybe… rather than just drinking the MSM kool aid …. you might want to look a little deeper … and if you did … you would find info on record personal debt in the US https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2016/10/12/average-credit-card-debt/91431058/ … you would find this http://www.gallup.com/opinion/chairman/181469/big-lie-unemployment.aspx
And best of all you might find this:
Retail department store sales are in a funk.
Macys, Nordstrom, Dillards, Kohls, and Ralph Lauren have all reported dismal sales or profits.
Is amazon the culprit?
Blaming most of this funk or even a third of it on Amazon is a bit misguided. Simple math explains why.
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/amazon-apparel-share.png
In the above chart, the percentage total excluding Amazon is 41.6% of the market. Amazon is 6.7%.
How much did Amazon grow in the last year? Two percentage points? One? Spread that growth out and Amazon cannot possibly be the largest problem.
Mish 12-Point Summation
Macys, Nordstrom, Dillards, Kohls, Ralph Lauren, etc., all overexpanded mightily. Stores are in such strong competition they cannibalize their own sales.
Boomers are retiring and have less money to spend. At some point they start wondering if they will outlive their savings.
The Millennials and generation Z don’t make as much as the retiring boomers did.
Priorities and attitudes of the millennials and generation Z are far different than that of their parents and grandparents. Relative to older generations, Millennials shun debt. Store executives still have not figured out this attitude shift.
Health care costs are going up far faster than wages. This weighs on consumers’ minds.
Consumers are tired of high prices.
Consumers have too much debt.
Women can only buy so many shoes and purses (I think).
Consumers sense a recession, even if analysts don’t.
It takes sales staff to run a store, overall profits decline at some point.
It takes inventory to fill a store, inventory-to-sales numbers rise as a result.
OK, somewhere in here blame Amazon.
https://mishtalk.com/2016/05/13/retail-department-store-carnage-amazon-to-blame-mish-12-point-summation/
You will NEVER see analysis like this in the MSM… because the MSM is tasked with controlling what you think.
And it is in the interest of everyone – that everyone believes that retail is not collapsing for want of customers…
NNNNNnnoooooooooo!!!! If the sheeple are told that then they will panic – they will not spend…. and if they don’t spend….
We go over the cliff much sooner….
Fast Eddy, you are BLOODY well RIGHT, but folks, like myself, just don’t buy from Amazon on the web…I’m not saying that the internet is the ONLY reason brick and mortar business are in trouble, but it is ONE reason. Also, nowadays everyone EXPECTS a discounted sale price…most refuse to pay retail or regular price for anything.
No wonder margins are thin. Also the younger generation is accustomed to the Internet.
It’s just going in that direction. I do not at all shop like I did when I was in my 20’s or 30’s.
I item is running shoes, that I use to buy at the speciality athletic store.
No way will I do that now, I use the web and very happy. For clothing, maybe TJ Max or Some store like that; most have name brands and nice selection.
We are in trouble, for sure…so many issues, so little time, LOL
Totally agree….. Online sales are definitely a big factor….
But the MSM would have us believe that it is the only real factor here….
The bricks retailers are being pounded by mortar bombs from all sides….
That ship is going to sink…. and trillions of dollars of debt owed on commercial properties… is going to go into default….
This is not good. This type of bad news… is bad.
It is often more convenient to shop on the web. Local stores don’t carry unusual sizes. Or if you want ratings, you need to go to the web. Or it is hard to know which store will carry a particular item. It is so quick and convenient, it is hard to avoid shopping at Amazon, or elsewhere on the web.
Good rant! Basically correct. It isn’t just Amazon though. Quite a few factors all combining to put the retailers and family oriented restaraunts out of business. Still, you need to calm down a little. It’s not like we are talking about a lack of turkey.
Ah … 6 months early … 6 months late… in the bigger picture… I will once again … be right.
We’re all like turkeys now… just waiting to go into the oven
Making health care mandatory was a problem for quite a few people, especially young people who ended up subsidizing the older people who need high cost health care.
We need to somehow believe that everything will be OK in the end. Main stream media allows us to think that between technology and our ability to manipulate interest rates, this is possible in this world. Common sense says this is not possible, but they are short on common sense.
For those who believe the MSM lie about retail dying due to Amazon … and not primarily because people are broke…
This would be useful reading http://wolfstreet.com/2017/02/22/u-s-restaurant-recession-becoming-structural/
So what is happening there — are people not going to restaurants and shopping online for meals?
Ah no…. what is happening is they are buying cheaper crap food in the Walmart and eating at home… because it is far cheaper than eating in even the crappiest fast food restaurant….
People are broke.
How hard is it to believe that?
Walmart Superstores with groceries do not just sell cheaper crap food…sorry it’s not so.
Not that I go out of my way to go there ( I prefer Public here), but it is just as good as other chain stores with as good or better selection. Organics veggies are available and all major store brands. BTW, Grocery margins are super thin, Walmart is NOT the cheapest place for food. Times are a changing.
Actually, now FAST Food at McDonalds and places like that are pricey, not cheap. Please raising prices and shrinking product size.
Best to buy ax bag of brown rice, potatoes, carrots, green beans, cans of various variety of beans, red, black, white, with other fresh foods grown from garden and eat well.
People are not stupid, they see what is happening and are displeased.
Like Gail pointed out, the paychecks bring home pay is lagging behind…
Wall Street and the Superrich are making out like. CRIMINALS, the working class
Forgetaboutit
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ni8KZmwwc1Q
I understand that Walmart is putting Whole Foods to the fire by selling organic food at much lower prices…..
But I doubt the people who were formerly eating at restaurants are suddenly buying healthy options at Walmart…
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/07/americas-obesity-epidemic-hits-a-new-high.html
What they are no doubt doing is loading up on cheap unhealthy options…
Major reason people are FAT is they do not MOVE their butts, plain and simple.
Especially the young! I’m a elder (59 age) and walk or run at least one hour a day.
Not too difficult to do. Where I work, we have down time….maybe one other old guy will go out for a stroll. Sorry, they are glued to their smart phones and make all kinds of excuses not to exercise.
Gail mentions health care crisis. I do not care what system we come up with if the general population are sedate and inactive. Plus there are many temptations of snack machines
glaring at you. A recipe for diabetes and obesity.
Great for the GNP!
“People are shopping online”
There once was a time when Wal-Mart drew the wrath of everyday Americans for putting small businesses, out of business. Now the tables have turned and it’s Amazon who’s doing that even more so than Wal-Mart could ever imagine. In fact Wal-Mart is on the receiving end of Amazon’s growth and are trying to play catch up with the online retailer.
The problem is that Amazon creates “virtually” no jobs unless you want to work in one of their sweatshop slave warehouses. Even that is due to change as Amazon is automating their warehouses with Robots.
The trend has been over the last several decades is for the Big Box stores to gobble up the smaller competition and now the big players are being gobbled up to the point where they are not producing jobs but in fact are taking it away from those same workers who are supposed to buy their products.
Now way out.
We’ve got a retail crisis building to a crescendo … and an auto crisis thundering towards us…
Both are easily of a magnitude to set off another massive financial crisis.
And we have the CBs on the wall … with only pea shooters remaining in the arsenals….
Forget about China… or the EU… or Japan…. the trigger(s) may once again be in the US
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/03/22/commercial-residential-real-estate-bubble-risk-to-financial-stability-feds-rosengren/
Crisis? What Crisis? The BEST album cover of the past century
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kLc9xGA_Qhw
And a song to go along Fast Eddy whining, Poor Boy
SUPERTRAMP LYRICS
“Poor Boy”
Can you believe me when I say, there’s nothing I like better,
Than just to sit here and talk with you.
Although I’ll rant and I’ll rave about one thing and another
The beauty of it is so pure to me, though,
I’m a poor boy,
I can still be happy,
As long as I can feel free.
So many people I know, get old way too early
(Well are you feelin’ kind of weary)
Just to impress you with the money they’ve made
(You better, you better change your theory)
One drop of rain, they complain, it’s the same about the ways they’re earning.
Well, that is not the way I’m gonna be,
Don’t mind the rain, don’t mind snow, don’t mind nothin’
If I know,
You will be right here with me
-We’ll let her stay, don’t mind a point of view,
How can we all afford to live like you;
This life is simply not enough,
We have no grievances, we must be tough-
Poor Boy-
If that’s the way it’s gonna be
-Poor Boy-
It’s you for you and me for me
-Poor Boy-
I’ve tried all I can, understanding, all the fools and all their money,
When half of what they’ve got, you know they never will use,
Enough to get by, suits me fine, I don’t care if they think I’m funny.
I’m never gonna change my point of view,
Don’t mind the rain, don’t mind snow, don’t mind nothing, if I know
You will be right here with me, all the way.
Na-na-na
Don’t mind the rain, don’t mind snow, don’t mind nothing if I know
You will be right here with me, all the way
Jeremy, you are chirpy today.
Here’s one from Genesis. They had our problem and the solution worked out almost half a century ago.
This is an announcement from Genetic Control:
“It is my sad duty to inform you of a four foot restriction on humanoid height.”
“I hear the directors of Genetic Control have been buying all the
properties that have recently been sold, taking risks oh so bold.
It’s said now that people will be shorter in height,
they can fit twice as many in the same building site.
(they say it’s alright),
Beginning with the tenants of the town of Harlow,
in the interest of humanity, they’ve been told they must go,
told they must go-go-go-go.”
https://youtu.be/3unmnCzmiwY
Nice, little overview in HuffPost of all places today:
“Although the consumer confidence remains high, something snapped in the US economy in December. Figure 1 presents the monthly growth of industrial and commercial loan stock in the US. It turned negative first in August last year, then in December and again in February…
“…China is running out of the road
“It is not well known that China had a minuscule recession in 2015 caused by squeeze in lending and fiscal shocks. To counter this, Beijing issued a massive debt-driven stimulation program which reignited the global growth.
“Another thing not fully internalized is that, since 2008, China has relied heavily on debt creation to stimulate its economy. This has increased the debt levels to dangerous levels in China…
“China has become the main trading partner of both the EU and Germany. Exports of goods and services also amount to over 27 % of GDP of the euro area. This is a much larger share than that of China (21.9 %) and the US (12.5 %).
“This means that the Eurozone cannot sustain its positive momentum, if the economies of China and the US tank. Europe is also battling with severe internal issues, including Brexit, the influx of migrants, and the still on-going debt crisis now turning acute in Greece. Thus, there is no way Europe to take the economic or political lead in the world economy…
“From a purely mathematical perspective, we are closing in a global recession. The mature business cycle of the US and the rising debt in China hamper the prospects of the global expansion…
“The US stock market bears another risk. If it crashes, the consumer confidence and the economy is likely to follow. Everywhere, the current asset valuations are now sustained through the artificial liquidity provided by the central banks (QE and very low interest rates), indicating that any crash may go global exceptionally fast. A panic in one of the major asset markets could thus cause a rapid deterioration of the global economy.
“The world economy needs to prepare for the worst. Especially, as the upcoming recession may turn out to be very different than anything we have seen in a long time.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/why-the-economy-is-heading-to-a-recession_us_58de6efee4b0fa4c09598874
“The popular Vix Index, Wall Street’s so-called “fear gauge” which measures the expected volatility of the US equity market implied by derivative contracts, currently stands at just 12.3 points, close to the record low of below 10 touched before the global financial crisis.”
http://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2084276/extraordinary-calm-markets-making-me-nervous
“By squelching demand from prime funds, commercial-paper rates relative to other money-market securities have risen, and are now at the highest levels since the financial crisis, causing borrowers to seek new sources of funding like the short-term securities lending market.
“Investors are also feeling the pinch — most money funds are stuck with Treasury bills offering paltry rates. What’s more, the massive shift toward funds that can only buy the safest U.S. debt has created the potential for a bottleneck if Congress is unable to resolve long-simmering disputes related to the nation’s debt ceiling.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-02/money-funds-overhaul-spurs-shakeup-of-dollar-financing-markets
“The deceleration in loans made to companies and consumers has befuddled some analysts who worry that the worst growth rate in about six years bodes ill for the U.S. recovery at a time when expectations remain high. With credit acting as the lubricant for economic expansion, solving the mystery of the downturn has gained fresh urgency.”
http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20170402/business/170409972/
“China’s central bank injected 618.99 billion yuan ($89.93 billion) into the financial system via short- and medium-term liquidity tools in March, up nearly 50 percent from the previous month, even as financial markets feared a cash crunch.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/china-economy-mlf-idUSL3N1H82SN
““Weak companies can’t sell bonds, which adds to the pressure on their cash flow,” said Liu Dongliang, a senior analyst at China Merchants Bank Co. in Shenzhen. “The pace of defaults will continue.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-02/china-just-had-its-worst-ever-start-to-a-year-for-bond-defaults
We have been depending on China to pull us forward. This is not a good sign.
At least China seems to understand the right direction for making adjustments.
We need a hero…
Whenever interest rates rise, those who are borrowing are adversely affected. We have been living in an artificial economy since 1981, with a long term decline in iqnterest rates hiding rising energ prices and other problems.
‘Everywhere, the current asset valuations are now sustained through the artificial liquidity provided by the central banks (QE and very low interest rates), indicating that any crash may go global exceptionally fast. A panic in one of the major asset markets could thus cause a rapid deterioration of the global economy.’
Yoo hooo…. BAU Liters…. Yoo hooo…..
I saw this article. It is very concerning. Regarding the exports of goods and services equal to 27% in the Euro area, I presume this is the result of individual countries being so small. Both the US and China are much larger. There is little a European country can make without international trade.
And meanwhile … John Key is relaxing enjoying the final months of BAU?
Why dance when you are soon to be dead?
“How’s he going to cut taxes and make it revenue neutral?” asked the CIO. “How’s he going to do massive infrastructure when we’re so deep in debt?” he continued.
“And why is the yield curve flattening? Why is loan demand declining? Why is consumer confidence at historic highs while retailer stocks are getting demolished?”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-02/hedge-fund-cio-what-if-trump-earnings-surge-was-just-illusion
Why is consumer confidence at historic highs while retailer stocks are getting demolished…
Um… because the consumer confidence stats are fake news? Either that or the retailers are actually doing very well but the fake news says they are not — and the hundreds of store closures are also fake news.
Or maybe retailers are like me, suddenly realizing life is better when you stop listening to commercials and stop buying shoddily made crap you never needed anyway. 🙂
If you look at the credit card debt people are holding .. that indicates the desire for more…. but when you have no munny … and your cards are maxxed out…
Well… the frustration must be off the charts….. they want to go to the Mall…they want to shop … but they haven’t the means…
There’s always the comfort of reality tv …
I think you are right about consumer spending. The retail stores are failing. Second hand stores are thriving in my area. One just moved out of a decrepit, old, ready-to-fall down building and moved into a handsome, almost new shop across the street. Most of my wardrobe comes from these shops. The rest of my clothes comes from my sisters who buy clothes at garage sales and then when they don’t work out, give them to me as Xmas and birthday gifts.
I have been surprised at the resale clothing stores appearing in nice malls. I also know several people who talk about getting much of their wardrobes at them. So I guess I shouldn’t be surprised. I was with my sister-in-law yesterday, and saw how reticent she was to spend even $20 on a piece of clothing. Incomes of many people are limited. Clothes are one thing that it is easy to cut back on.
The same in Slovakia: the marks with cheap quality characteristics like Pepco (clothes) and CCC (shoes) invaded the malls.
The majority of todays shoes are so called “fashion shoes”, i.e. they withstand nothing, you have problem return them when problems with their endurance arise.
I had a hard time returning a pair of shoes after three hour use (bad fit). Amazing someone should be able to return them after wear.
Remember folks, as civilization collapses around you…
https://youtu.be/Ep9Vzb6R_58
😉
Dear Gail, my reply, comment-121408, seems to have disappeared into the abyss.
The people in Slovakia believe that the mortgages will become less affordable and on year-over-year basis take record amounts of mortgages before the more strict conditions for providing mortgages set by the National Bank of Slovakia will come into force as of May.
http://finweb.hnonline.sk/spravy-zo-sveta-financii/937745-28-dni-do-tvrdsich-hypotek-ludia-mali-uverovy-osial
Idiots are idiots – there will be no such thing as less affordable debt… But personal income problems are more than sure.
This is a really great example of how the MSM is a steaming pile of dung…
Demand for the dirtiest fuel is on the wane. The International Energy Agency — which has tended to overestimate coal production, and underestimate renewables — doesn’t expect consumption to regain its 2014 levels until 2021. Investment in new mines is “drying up,” according to its latest market forecast.
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-04-02/coal-s-dirty-australian-secret-it-s-not-coming-back
You can see how it works… Bloomberg to write a coal story … Ministry of Truth reviews and says drop in something that implies renewables are the cause will ya…
David Fickel’s editors passes the message and David sticks in those 3 words ‘and underestimate renewables’
And never mentions the subject again in the rest of the article.
And the retards walk away from this feeling good — renewables are taking over — coal is finished…
I’m looking for new energy sources! What is the BTU output of this MSM “steaming pile of dung” that you mentioned in passing?
Not everybody is going to make it including yourself.
It may well be that David Fickel needs no such intervention from the Editor and his truth-loving overlords. I have a well-educated, intelligent friend with a distinguished career in the hydrocarbon industry who believes that electric cars and renewables are the future, and he is in very good company. Such assumptions are widespread. I think that’s as much to do with human nature as any intentional deception from on high.
Ya … he may actually believe that statement… who knows….
Had dinner with a buddy last year – he brought along a journalist friend who worked for a range of MSM including the Economist.
He was explaining how when you write for the MSM — you have very little freedom in terms of what you write…. everything is written with a specific narrative in mind…
If you deviate and actually try to write what you think the truth is — your copy will be tossed in the garbage and you will be reprimanded…
You quickly get the message.
This seems to be the case with academic publishers as well.
Here’s a good post by Charles Hugh Smith summarizing in a few paragraphs how political leadership is in chaos literally about what to do about anything anymore.
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar17/overlapping-crises3-17.html
What does it mean when a nation becomes so uncertain about the future of its economy that it suddenly stops buying clothes? We are about to find out.
According to UBS analyst Adam Cochrane and his team, who did a survey of 2,000 consumers’ spending intentions, there has been a sudden and significant drop in our desire to buy apparel compared to six months ago.
Although the UK has seen robust growth recently, Cochrane calls this a “false dawn.” To state the obvious, the only thing that changed in the economy between then and now is the certainty that the UK will leave the European Union:
https://static.businessinsider.com/image/58e0a20fdd08953b5f8b497f-1200/image.jpg
Many more interesting charts here https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-economy-article-50-trigger-2017-3#1KwMhh3cUMVD7KgY.99
I suppose it means that either Brits are flat out broke — or they expect BAU to end before their trousers wear out….
The Brits have tiny flats, you can’t pack in as much frivolous consumer crap as in other countries. They simply ran of place for yet another wardrobe, not mentioning years of heavy discounts for it prior to that.
hey fast eddy you were saying britain wont leave eu
You probably did not pay much attention, since the EU politburo put a lot traps into the negotiating period ahead. And since the UK Leave gov camp (a minority faction of the establishment) can loose easily any future early or regular elections for various reasons, including logs thrown by the EU into the commerce and free movement situation, this is NOT finished process by a long shot as of now..
No.
What I said was that if the Elder.s did not want them to leave then they would not be permitted to leave — or that if they were permitted to leave the Eld.ers had determined their leaving was irrelevant.
You do not cross the El.ders without enormous repercussions — ask Sylvio Berlusconi… his referendum idea resulted in him being sent into obscurity
Remember how Alexis Tsipras was going to tell the ECB to piss off and remove the yoke from the back of Greece? He’s done nothing of the sort… the El.ders say jump – he says how hi.
It does look like something has changed in Britain.
Dark ages after one of the first attempts at globalized world system, Bronze Age ~1200BC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRcu-ysocX4
The ~300yrs climate/drought pattern swing seems very plausible, but the whole cocktail of drought, famine, mass migration and invasions, likely done it.
and waves of earthquakes, and, and, ..
I think that there is more to the problem than drought. I have the book, and would need to look back at it. There were very long supply chains–tin coming from a distance, for example. It would not take much to disrupt such a complex economy.
Yep, it’s in the video lecture as well, e.g. the tin was imported to “ClubMed” sea ports from Afghanistan, Copper ores from Cyprus etc. The vessel tonnage was ~10t max, so when the “globalized” trade broke, no fancy bronze armies anymore, hence collapse (factor)..
But the timing sequence looks like -> famine-drought first, then wars/migration, chaos to established order, eventually no long distance trade..
It is easy for a combination of factors to work together. I know that Sing Chew has one or more books on this theme as well.
A little off topic…
Do you ever notice how whenever you eat … if you have a dog ….he plunks down in front like a beggar expecting (and usually getting) a few scraps? He follows your fork from the plate to your mouth… drooling… ‘please suh … may I have some’ -eyed….
Have you ever tried to plunk down in front of your dog like a beggar when he’s eating and plead with him to share a taste,, just a little to spread on a cracker … does he give you any food? Nooooooo! He doesn’t even know you exist. And if you intrude by trying to snatch the tiniest morsel — you walk away without all your fingers…
Where the fairness in all this?
the dog might give you a sloppy love lick, for trying.
Well, my cat brought me a cardinal the other day, he is very loyal.
We have a lot of things produced for us by robots and cheap labor, but we lack the energy: the truth about us is that we are more and more alone, immersed in securing our individual survivals and our population is on irreversible decline.
Here’s a fresh perspective that hasn’t been discussed much at all and which clearly bothers this writer and it is how would Theodore Herzl (1904) and Rabbi Fischmann (1947). the creators of Zionism have felt knowing what we now know about oil depletion? For a people to have worked and fought so hard for the Promised Land and to wake up that hey it was all for nothing or will be is a hard thing to accept.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/greater-israel-the-zionist-plan-for-the-middle-east/5324815?platform=hootsuite
That is why this Yinon Plan is especially frightening and brings up huge questions about so many things. If the last of the last of oil reserves is in the Middle East and these Zionists actually believe its their right to have it wow biblically then it raises the issues of the Apocalypse. The book of Revelation clearly says that a 200 hundred million man army will march across the Euphrates plain on there way to Jerusalem. Does this mean then that perhaps it is talking about the 2 largest populations in the world China and India from that interesting graph above not taking kindly to Jerusalem being the capital of the world which is the goal apparently by the elders?
I think for the first time in history we are beginning to see the fulfillment of what has been prophesied thousands of years ago? and wow again consider the quote from a previous thread:
What we are looking at are “the powers that be” backed by British and American (and Israeli) military might, pushing for control of the world’s oil supply to the detriment of the people who already have legal title to it. It is raw, naked power…ruthlessly projected. The United Nations Security Council has just approved the plan, which means that this whole farce is now turning out to be little more than ‘legalized’ stealing. Public opinion be damned.
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/Pfv1.cfm?pfvID=2612&SearchParam=Shamrock
Somehow I don’t think history is going to quite end the way many envision on this blog.
I am not sure that it is going to be the way you envision it either. Coal is pretty much just as important as oil. The fact that its consumption is down is a huge problem that has flown under practically everyone’s radar.
I am not convinced that Revelations tells us anything about the future. We have many types of writing that seem to tell us something about the future. It is possible that some of them may provide some helpful insights. But I don’t think we should count on it.
The fact that consumption is down in the first world is a testament to the unsustainability of our lifestyle (mostly finance). Impoverishment of the first world is a good thing if it either a) transitions us toward sustainability b) extends of lifetime of “affordable” resources. It almost certainly is and will do some of both. Whether we ever make it to sustainability or off Earth or whether we do either without a lot of blood is unknown to all. It seems unlikely to me to achieve either given my assessment of the current position and trajectory and incredibly unlikely without a lot of death. But it certainly seems possible.
Stunning ignorance
It certainly “seems possible” until a person looks at the details. I wish it really were possible.
The problem is that businesses cannot shrink, because they have high fixed costs. Governments cannot shrink, because many people are depending on the benefits that they provide (like Social Security, Medicare, etc.). We can’t go back to using horses, because there aren’t enough horses now, and we wouldn’t have any place to park them, or anyone to clean up after them.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/03/28/20170401_map1_0.jpg
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-01/
https://youtu.be/jfSNxVqprvM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C8X6mv9UMAA6O6V.jpg
Now, I do think blacks have been and will continue to be a part of the decline of America.
But, as I’ve said, they produce a reaction in whites, that makes whites double down on some of their
instincts for low taxation, limited government etc., which just makes the federal government, which never actually reduces spending, just go into deeper debt.
America is ungovernable because of its basic racial and class divisions, I’ve long believed this.
Homogeneous societies sure do seem to function a lot more smoothly. And I’m not a fan of the dysfunction in the urban black communities either, which is why I live far from them. I will say, as a lawyer, that black folks make better clients. More appreciative and less demanding. Middle class white people are the most pretentious group of know-it-alls and crybabies in America. 90% of the bitching and complaining is from middle class white people.
That’s what you get when you chain millions of people and drag them across the world then abuse them… white Americans need to look in the mirror to find the source of their problems….
I must say – I take great delight when I read Brits moan about how the country has been overrun by non-whites…
Forgetting that they overran the countries of the people that are emigrating to the UK in droves now… they should take solace in the fact that at least the immigrants are not invaders…
Karma?
Yep, I’ve always said that all they are (refugees etc) doing is two things 1) following their resources; resources that were strip mined out of their countries, and 2) trying to get behind the g.uns that are pointing at them in their countries all the time; g.uns that are made elsewhere.
People need to realise that money is just a ticket for the carnival; these tokens have no value when the circus either leaves town, or crashes and burns. Right now the owners of the circus are stealing the petrol out if the cars out in the carpark (shale gas anyone?) in order to keep the wheels turning. When the lights go out there will be nothing left to give the masses the chance to get out of Dodge.
I’m looking for the like button.
Clueless 0.1 percenters who cannot truly grasp what the end of BAU truly entails…I don’t think they hang out on OFW lol
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/01/30/doomsday-prep-for-the-super-rich
A concentrate of hopium
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kthhSwyv2H0
Saludos
el mar
When I started my path towards self-discovery 7 long years ago, I was reading/following all these guys blogs/websites…JMG, Orlov, Martenson, JHK…now not only do I never read what they write, I can’t stand them and their delusions…of the dozens of websites I was following over the years, now I limit myself to this one…what did it for me was Norman Pagett’s book End of More that I read back in June 2013 where I finally clicked that what we are facing is not a problem (which supposes a potential solution) but a predicament (of which there is NO solution)…I would love to add NP to that panel and see him destroy each of these delusionists one by one 🙂
‘now not only do I never read what they write, I can’t stand them and their delusions’
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
ITEOTWAWKI, I agree, but give Orlov the exception.This was a funded event, and therefore restrained, and Orlov is just trying to make a buck. The essence of his latest book is the same message as here, i.e., we are toast, and very few will make it through the next decade. In the meantime, it’s a good idea to live authentically, and as close to nature as possible, and it you want to try to survive the SHTF, go for it.
ITEOTWAWKI
My path was almost the same. It commenced in February 2012, when i found George Mobus blog. For a time i followed everything that were written by Heinberg, Martenson, JHK, Orlov, A. Turiel, G. McPherson, RE and Gail. In the last couple of years i gave up all of them except OFW. (Ok, sometimes i still read Orlov on politics).
I seldom comment, because my english is appaling, but I’m here every single day. It is my second home. No, it’s my hyperbaric chamber, the place where i detox myself from the hopium & wisful thinking that we breathe outside, in the disney world of mainstream press.
Unfortunately in my country, Portugal, the subject of financial and ecological collapse is a non issue in the news or in the blogosphere. Literally nobody talks about that. Never a mention. Zero. So it’s a particular lonely business to be an aware kollapsnik here. But, well, aside the intellectual reward of being in the know, I guess there’s also some moral compensation when we feel we are the one-eyed in the land of the blind…
Cheers!
Your English makes perfect sense to me…
There are many who appear to have good English skills on FW but who make no sense whatsoever.
Welcome! Glad to have you here!
Hi JMS you are right I followed all those blogs as well (excpet Turiel not sure who that is)…and it is lonely out there….no one has a clue about how unsustainable the system is, and those that have an inkling say “yeah but it will not be in my or my children’s lifetime” (how convenient loll)….but this collapse is happening soon…we have been on life support since 2008 and we owe that to the Herculean efforts of CBs…All we can do is take advantage of every day..Obrigado e boa sorte 🙂
The long version is worthy, the physics demeanor of the panelists is revealing.
Btw in this long decay process, it’s very likely there will be some attempts of putting up on pedestal in next elections before ~2030 some quasi Bernie type of limousine-champagne leftist with the goal of salvaging the “4th turning” reshuffle for TPTB’s longer term agenda. Not unlike FDR, which paved the road for future nazification through Truman and eventually Nixon..
0.1 percenters cluless?
Perhaps but the .01 certainly are not. They have either already granted access to the top “continuity of gov” mil bunker installations or own similar facilities privately in NA, CH, Asia-Oceania and other parts of the world, including stand-by jets inside climate controlled hangars.. Not mentioning the fact, there will be many events/cycles ongoing waayyy before considering such steps. Notably at least attempted re-feudalization of the domestic landscape firstly via fed mil/police, later by mercenaries, ..
I am sure the guy with the gun and his buddies are just going to stand guard at the gate when the fat old bastards relax enjoying fine champagnes and caviar inside the bunker…
Exactly what do the fat bastards have to offer him to keep him at his post?
On what authority? Oh right — they have the guys with the guns outside the gate to call — when the guys at the gate decide it’s time for a coup….
The military men will quickly realize that the formerly powerful rich fat old men have nothing to offer… and they will turn them out … with a swift kick in the ass… and they’ll celebrate with fine champagne and caviar.
Anyone who thinks the likes of Soros and Gates and Zuckerberg are going to maintain their positions …. is delusional.
http://www.newyorker.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/170130_r29354-690×533-1484862117.jpg
Are you for real? Have you actually seen real military, by that not meaning the bottom of the fish tank like that picture/render above? If that escapes you, there are already people manning the doomsday machine of the nuclear triad in 24/365 fashion. You don’t end up near COG facility being a wimp.. And from that silly example of three knocking on the door most likely only perhaps Gates (for past bribes global camaraderie) would be invited out of the other two, Zucker-nobody and Soros-walking intensive care unit..
What you describe, may actually happen only on two overall conditions/scenarios:
– elite infighting inside the COG facility AFTER some threshold event (e.g. nuclear war)
– elite infighting AFTER defeat in next civil war/successful secession movement
And as you can acknowledge both the options don’t happen instantly, there is a prelude, steps to these events..
I have not the slightest clue what you are on about with your upper case gibberish….
So I will leave you with this.
When the system that provides this guy with his wealth and power collapses:
http://media.salon.com/2016/01/henry_kissinger4-620×412.jpg
Do you think this guy is going to take orders from the guy above?
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/ca/ca/32/caca323f210ead4c7df77c38d9661de8.jpg
Not a F789ing chance.
Sorry, this is kinder garden logic on your part..
In reality, as long as the “military-patriotic” indoctrination (and/or money-promotion incentives) works to certain phase shift threshold of rebellion, the depicted mussels simply follow crazy TPTB head.
And, again this threshold of obedience to authority to be breach in the first place, certain steps must occur first, plural .. several steps a process .. It’s like weeks of Russians advancing Berlin, Adolf already in his under chancellery bunker last hold, yet some of his elite get away pilots and other servants are still with him, some refusing direct orders to leave till very last days, some chickening out on their own and flying into the US zone..
WW2 is not relevant – I don’t know why you are bringing up the hitler bunker.
We are talking about the end of the world – literally — no reset – no recovery – no energy.
We are talking about wealthy physically weak men whose power over other men rests in the ability to pay them and in their faith in a system that will reward their loyalty.
The system that supports the wealthy men will be vapourized — the system that commands there loyalty will be up in flames.
So what you will have is trained soldiers armed to the teeth — guarding men who have nothing to offer them.
They can offer them USD — but what use is that? They can promise them piles of gold – but what use is that.
Why would they guard these men and take orders from them? When you could easily kill them and take the bunker for yourself.
And what could these weak old men do about it?
Nothing. Absolutely nothing.
As soon as the guards recognize the situation for what it is … the alpha males are going to quickly work out that they can be the kings of the castles….
And George Soros and his mates will be squealing like stuck pigs as they rush for the exits… and into the streets to search for rats to boil
Patriotism?
We are talking about protecting George Soros and Jamie Dimon — who get to sit in their bunker and eat Matzo balls — and the former special forces guys are going to stand guard – out of patriotism???
They soldiers are going to abandon their families to the hordes and remain on the wall – to protect former fat cats who’s money is useful only to light a fire with.
Are you dreaming?
These guys are going to kill Jamie and George — and move their families and friends into the bunkers…
“..As soon as the guards recognize..”
And that’s exactly the hearth of the matter, I wrote about..
they won’t have the bird’s view of the situation till some very advanced point of chaos/abandonment stage and what have you. So, in the meanwhile they will behave accordingly as expected by their masters.
They won’t get suspicious when first their wages arent accepted as currency and then their food rations disappear?
Who needs rations when Jamie and George are tossing their scraps to you in exchange for protecting them …
I am sure this guy would be real pleased with that arrangement — he would not mind that his wife is likely being raped and is starving …. after all … the boss comes first… especially when they are bankers…
http://www.guns.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/French-Foreign-Legion-9.jpg
Hey – are Jamie and George still bankers — even when there are no banks? Are they still rich and powerful – when all assets are worthless?
Or are they just nobodies… to be shoved aside… by the new bosses… the guys with the guns…
Jamie would make a good butler I reckon….
George… I am not so sure what role George could play under the new management… he’s rather gnarly … I suppose he could be run through the grinder and fed to the attack dogs…
Again, it’s not my problem that you are not aware (of basics) of those dozens of thousand of soldiers and experts currently manning the various nuclear triad and COG (cont. of gov) installations around the globe (US, Russia, China, Israel, .. ), going about their duties irrespective of their families or their own poor souls. Partly they are that young-brainwashed and detached (traits selected for), there might well be a certain part of them prone to disobey orders or go prematurely rebellious, but that’s not the issue, as they are and will be the minority till the very advanced late stages of collapse anyway..
And there will be stages to the collapse!
I”ll give you a scenario, for example, do you think a Chinese rocket sinking in “their waters” US strike group, resulting in limited nuclear strike, partly halted, nevertheless resulting in huge market crash and loss of reserve currency (living standards in the west crashing to 1/x), few millions direct causalities somewhere and few hundred millions dead in 2.5-3rd world (mostly as econ consequences in few years time), would somehow IMMEDIATELY convince “J6P mercenary” that ~Kissinger/Gates types are responsible for it? You must be dreaming, it will be as always, the “Sea peoples” or the “Chinese” and simply “others” to blame.. That doesn’t mean the gov could not be toppled in next cycles due to cumulative effect of apparent mismanagement.
FE, again it boils down to the simple fact, YOU, for some personal reasons demand, fast and swift end of it all, which most likely won’t come in this fashion, hence your irrational childish outbursts as the toy is taken away from you..
“FE, again it boils down to the simple fact, YOU, for some personal reasons demand, fast and swift end of it all, which most likely won’t come in this fashion, hence your irrational childish outbursts as the toy is taken away from you..”
I mostly agree with that. It’s just not going to happen as FE wishes, no matter how much he wishes it. He hates humanity (he has acknowledged such) and can’t wait for it to end. What FE does not realize is that his fantasy will never come true. Life will degrade in fits and starts and the choice is ours whether we want to stick around and try and make it through.
I think it has been explained by the members of The Core why collapse – when it hits — will be rapid.
Those who believe it will be gradual – step-downs…. have not been able to explain how that can happen.
Once again — look at auto and retail sales…. they are no longer increasing.
Failure to increase means that these companies will not hire people.
As sales fall – these companies will lay people off…
If this is not reversed then we will get:
http://preparingyourfamily.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/DeflationarySpiral-320×2311.jpg
Now I can understand how many people do not like this outcome …. how — in spite of the facts — they will try to convince themselves that rapid collapse is not possible.
As we can see — delusion is powerful — no matter how we explain how collapse cannot be gradual….
They will not get it – they do not want to get it
Because getting it… is overwhelming for most people…. if they were to get it then they would look at those auto and retail numbers…
And they would get anxious… and scared…
I look at those numbers and there is a tinge of anxiety…. not for the species – as you point out my position is that the sooner humans are wiped out the better….
But for myself .. and family …. and friends… for all of the people on FW…. (even gl.en.n)
I am not overly excited about being wiped out … I am not so keen on dealing with violent and desperate people… disease… I dread the day I need to unlock the container door and grab the can opener….
So I do feel a bit of anxiety — but I have seen how the CBs have been able to shove the beast back behind the curtain before …. so I am able to keep my anxiety at a very manageable level…
That said… I am not sure how they keep the auto and commercial real estate juggernauts from taking down BAU…. they may have met their match
Believe you me, FE, I only wish the insta-collapse scenario was a sure thing. But things have a stubborn tendency to not go the way we expect them to, even when we are well-informed.
Things can bump along for a long time – as they have… but they cannot trend downwards for very long without completely collapsing BAU
Read – Learn
http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Trade_Off_Korowicz.pdf
There will come a point at which society realizes that infinite growth on a finite planet is not possible. A point when the collective subconscious realizes the gig is up. When certain hard physical limits cannot be denied. The only way I can make sense of the Great Depression, is as a collective psychological phenomenon. People thought things were great, until they didn’t. Of course, it’s all a confidence game. It is that – psychological limit – that will be the end. When people realize there is no point to sending more satellites in space, future drug research, and “progress” in general, no point to this whole charade called industrial civilization, the point of which, all along, was to deny death. IC is a monument to the gods as it were, like the Egyptian Pyramids…
I comfort myself knowing that no one can take away my freedom, should I ever choose to seize it.
I can play acronym games too!
LOL
OMG
And so on…
https://media.sproutsocial.com/uploads/2015/06/75-Social-Media-Acronyms-062.png
So….. do you really think that when BAU goes down… a soldier will wait hand and foot on George and Jamie who are ensconced in their luxury bunkers watching reruns of I Love Lucy with their entitled grand children… snacking on the 10 tonnes of deli foods stocked in the pantry….
Even if he has a wife and small kids cowering in the dark at his home … running out of food?
OH in terms of fast collapse vs BAU Lite… you are in the minority here…. DelusiSTANIS are outnumber by The Core. In fact one Core member is wiser than 1,000,000,000 DeluisTANIS combined.
after winning the key battle of Issus, Alexander was in hot pursuit of King Darius of Persia. he never saw him again. Alexander’s forward guard found the body of Darius in his coach on a remote road in the Persian desert, killed and robbed by his own security guards.
“after winning the key battle of Issus…”
It was Gaugamela not Issus.
Cheers.
oops, need to bush up on that, thanks.
But Alexander did not want him killed, but wanted him as a trophy.
Jeremy> no the point is we want to FE have it right, so we argue with legends about old Darius demise after huge defeat.. off the point to preceding discussion but lolz..
Oh, My BAD….Yep, Fast Eddy Bloody Well Right!
SUPERTRAMP LYRICS
Play “Bloody Well Right”
on Amazon Music
“Bloody Well Right”
So you think your schooling’s phoney
I guess it’s hard not to agree
You say it all depends on money
And who is in your family tree
Right, you’re bloody well right
you know you got a right to say
Right, you’re bloody well right
you know you got a right to say
Ha-ha you’re bloody well right
you know you’re right to say
Yeah-yeah you’re bloody well right
you know you’re right to say
Me, I don’t care anyway!
Write your problems down in detail
Take them to a higher place
You’ve had your cry – no, I should say wail
In the meantime hush your face
Right, quite right, you’re bloody well right
actually, it was Issus, as the battle of Gaugamela happened two years prior, per the Wiki.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Issus#/media/File:Battle_of_Issus_mosaic_-_Museo_Archeologico_Nazionale_-_Naples_BW.jpg
BTW, the above mossiac was “recovered” from the wall of a private manor in Pompei, no doubt owned by a member of the Roman elite in 79 AD.
“actually it was Issus…”
Nope, it was Gaugamela.
Issus was in 333 BC.
Gaugamela was in 331 BC, two years later.
Cheers.
Sorry, had some difficulty counting years forward in BC space.
But then there is the example of the retainers of Emperor Go-Daigo, who was decisively defeated in 1336 but his retainers stayed loyal to him all the way to 1392.
I seldom read the comments here anymore, I agree with most of them but they are repetitious, and all too often ad hominem. We are talking to ourselves. I suggest that we spend some of our commenting energy on other sites and spread OFW ideas outside of this walled garden.
Why spread the news? Didn’t we agree it would just hastened collapse and cause undue unhappiness in folks lives? Energy? After the lights go out , the energy will come from rubbing two sticks together and sunning ourselves.
I think this blog of Gails provides an outlet for us in the know.
We know deep down what the outcome really will be and hope it happens after we are pushing up daisies. At least that’s what I hoped.
Besides, when you start talking about this stuff with people they just kind of freak out. Eventually it gets around to the fact that there are too many people in the world. That doesn’t go over well with folks who have two kids and another one on the way. Just better to talk about sports.
Wasn’t that an exciting end to the College Basketball game between North Carolina vs Oregon?
I like the part where they made a touchdown!
Yeah, I’ve learned that lesson – avoid being the messenger of bad news. Just give them what they want – happy delightful impressions of BAU.
It is difficult enough keeping the DelusiSTANIS out of FW … without venturing into their home turf to do battle…
I prefer to stay on FW almost exclusively — agreed that there is some repetition … but there is a fair bit of new info and angles being posted to keep it interesting.
The situation is in constant flux
“We know deep down what the outcome really will be and hope it happens after we are pushing up daisies.”
Unless you are a really old man or have been struck by a fatal disease that will end your life in the very near future, I don’t think that will be happening unfortunately…I really can’t see how this whole charade can go on for even 5 years…the math just doesn’t add up…but like you, I so would have wished this could have gone on for a few more years, say 2030-35..by then I would be in my early 60s, which would have been a pretty good run for me (not as good as my 4 grandparents though who all went over 90, including one to 102…)…but to use one of my favourite expressions of the last few years: “It is what it is”
Stein’s Law: ” Things that can’t go on forever eventually stop”
Two lemmas ( mine — Interguru’s Lemmas )
1) They go on a lot longer than you think they can.
2) They stop suddenly without warning. Even those who see it coming have no idea when.
[ reposted ]
“1) They go on a lot longer than you think they can.”
Nothing would make me happier!!! 🙂
I must say… I was thrilled when we made it past the countdown on Dec 31!
“1) They go on a lot longer than you think they can.”
and going and going…
Yep, 5 years ago on this site, nobody thought we’d make it to 2013. Well, we’re still here! Things are more robust than they seem. People don’t just lay down to die. Lots of inertia in the system.
I would love it if the comments section was as international as Gail’s readership with ‘on the ground’ insights from around the world. I’m sure the language barrier is an issue but still – there must be many interesting voices and stories out there. Come on, you overseas lurkers!
I’m not a lurker, but I can give my 5 cents on situation in Finland. There are others here from Finland, so they might have an different view of the situation from mine.
Early this year all indicators in big businesses investing, expanding, hiring more people, went all way green. In the south, east, west, north, of Finland, simultaneously, all big businesses expanding. The common attitude is therefore very positive. Despite all the real financial indicators being heavily in the red. Yesterday a big Swedish investor Rune Andersson, said he will sell all stocks he has, because the fundamentals are gone. Lets see how that affects the big investors of Finland..
The government budget is as f:ed up as ever. Finland has one of the most scewed population pyramids in the world. Lots of people starting, or having, or enjoying their pension. The situation is so scewed, that in one of the business sectors I work with, 40% of the people making decisions, will retire this year, or in a year or two, nationwide. Nobody actually has a clue who would do all the actual work, in say, five years time.
One thing about increasing complexity. Now almost all business sectors employ consultants, regurlary. Having a consultant or two, in every business decision, is infuriating. The consultants don’t actually understand a thing about the business they are consulting, so, just a lot more complexity in all and every business decisions involved.
A couple of things that are still not so bad. A few thousand fresh water lakes with fish. National food security still above 100% because of expectations to be able to export lots of food to St. Petersburg Russia in the future. Lots of clean forests, lakes etc. With natural herbes, wild vegetables, berries and mushrooms. If just looking at carrying capacity of the land, and what naturally is still found. One of the few places in the world with the ability to actually support the whole present population, and actually even more than that. Lots of people with handy skills. Finnish babes aren’t that bad 😉 though there are some really super Swedish, Estonian or babes from St. Petersburg that easily outcompete the babes from Finland.
Thanks, Van Kent! Doesn’t sound like a bad place to ride out the phase-change if indeed it can be ridden out. Your English is really good btw.
Don’t forget ABBA, you all got Dancing Queen!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=O7mdPSW-7jQ
And Rudolph thre Reindeer and Santa Claus.
Sounds like a nice place.
I understand that this is a map of the nuclear power plants/spent fuel pond locations around the world…
I reckon that once BAU goes … there will not be a single animal (including people) alive within months… it will take a little longer for the radiation to make it to my neck of the woods… and the concentrations won’t be so strong… so I’ll likely have a year or so of suffering … before I am poisoned… or cancer gets me
https://i.stack.imgur.com/7lws6.png
The death of Fast Eddy, poor lad, a slow, agonizing painful end…poo hoo
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2bZo9FbJq_4
Remember, you are always right, bloody well right! LOL
Interesting video! This is from October 2014–shortly after prices for everything had started falling. Some of these issues make it into the Simpsons.
all the immediate area in red say within a diameter of 100 miles will be toast within months but people quite far away more than a couple thousand miles away might last another ten maybe twenty years who really knows
That is not correct – when Chernobyl blew — but was contained — cancer rates soared in surrounding countries…
With Fukushima plans to evacuate Tokyo were draw up ….
And these are reactors… child’s play compared to a spend fuel pond.
Not sure how many times this needs to get posted before it sinks in… but let’s try again:
Containing radiation equivalent to 14,000 times the amount released in the atomic bomb attack on Hiroshima 68 years ago, more than 1,300 used fuel rod assemblies packed tightly together need to be removed from a building that is vulnerable to collapse, should another large earthquake hit the area. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/14/us-japan-fukushima-insight-idUSBRE97D00M20130814
4000 spent fuel ponds x 14,000 = 56,000,000 Hiroshima bombs
Pick your poison. Fresh fuel is hotter and more radioactive, but is only one fuel assembly.
A pool of spent fuel will have dozens of assemblies. One report from Sankei News said that there are over 700 fuel assemblies stored in one pool at Fukushima. If they all caught fire, radioactive particles—including those lasting for as long as a decade—would be released into the air and eventually contaminate the land or, worse, be inhaled by people.
“To me, the spent fuel is scarier. All those spent fuel assemblies are still extremely radioactive,” Dalnoki-Veress says.
http://science.time.com/2011/03/15/a-new-threat-in-japan-radioactive-spent-fuel/
There are also people still living in the Chernobyl exclusion zone, eating out of their own gardens, who have been there since 1986 who refused to evacuate.
Chernobyl did not involve spent fuel ponds – and it was entombed under cement dropped from helicopters.
Interesting!
Dear FE;
When you are right, you are right. On this issue, you are completely and BORINGLY wrong. “Not sure how many times this needs to get posted before it sinks in… but let’s try again:”
First, an analysis from Sandia Laboratories
“These results should be considered in context with the fact that according to current practice, decay times as short as 30 days in reactor-sited pools and 11 year in away-from-reactor pools are possible.”
So, a significant proportion of the spent fuel rods have been used as much as possible in the reactor, and then have been stored safely for many years. The fuel that has been stored for more than five years can be dry casked. It doesn’t need water cooling at all. Since it can be stored in a dry cask, it can also be stored in the racks in the pool without overheating. Stated another way, that fuel is safe regardless of the existence of water in the pool. From the book:
“For most of the cases considered, a 3-year decay period is sufficient to keep the clad temperatures within safe limits even when there is no ventilation at all.”
The cases where fuel that has been stored for 3 years, and is unsafe, are due to tighter placement of the fuel, and smaller holes that restrict air circulation. The 3 year number is for spent fuel from a Pressurized water reactor (PWR) for fuel that was used in a Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) the time required is less. (There are more PWR reactors than BWR reactors.)
“… the amount of heatup occurring in the unventilated or underventilated away-from- reactor storage pool is considerably lower when the pool is filled with BWR fuel than when it is filled with PWR fuel.”
For spent fuel stored outside, or in a room with an open door and roof vent the study concluded that:
“1. Considering a complete pool drainage, the minimum allowable decay time for PWR spent fuel in a well-ventilated room varies from a best value of about 5 days, for open-frame storage configurations, to a worst value of about 700 days, for high-density closed-frame configurations with wall-to-wall spent fuel placement. Other storage configurations fall between these limits. The minimum allowable decay time is defined as the lower limit of safe decay times, such that shorter decay times would produce local clad failures due to rupture or melting.”
“2. The minimum allowable decay time for BWR spent fuel in a well-ventilated room varies from a best value of 5 days to a worst value of 150 days for the cases considered. A high-density storage rack design for BWRs would result in a somewhat higher value of the allowable decay time than presented here, but not as high as for PWR spent fuel.”
That is ALL fuel that has been stored for 700 days after BAU would be safe. Some fuel stored only 5 days would be safe. Interestingly, the author goes on to say that by making a few modifications to the racks, that 700 day number could be reduced to 80 days at no expense to the utility.
If the fuel is stored in a closed room with no ventilation, the spent fuel would need to be stored as long as 4 years before it was safe.
The author calculated that it would likely not be wise under any circumstances to stand at the edge of the pool after the water was gone. Just as obvious, the idea that all of the spent fuel known to exist would – as a matter of course – burn, melt, go critical and scatter radiation over vast areas is simply ridiculous, as I stated several days ago.
The second study from Brookhaven National Laboratory was charged with determining the damage that would be caused by the spent fuel that did overheat per the study at Sandia. In the “Consequence Evaluation” section of the Brookhaven study one finds:
“Because of several features in the health physics modeling in the CRAC2 code, the population dose results are not very sensitive to the estimated fission product release. A more sensitive measure of the accident severity appears to be the interdiction area (contaminated land area) which in the worst cases was about two hundred square miles. While the long-term health effects (i.e., person-rem) are potentially large, it is important to note that no “prompt fatalities” were predicted and the risk of injury was also negligible.”
In the later portions of the text, the author notes that the reason that there are no prompt fatalities, and the risk of injury was small is that the model used assumes what I would call BAU mitigation. So, yes their would be major health effects in the 200 square mile area if the fire happened post BAU.
Regarding their review and update of the Sandia work:
“Based on the previous results we have concluded that the modified SFUEL code (SFUELIW2) gives a reasonable estimate of the potential for propagation of self-sustaining clad oxidation from high power spent fuel to low power spent fuel. Under some conditions, propagation is predicted to occur for spent fuel that has been stored as long as 2 years. The investigation of the effect of insufficient ventilation in the fuel building indicated that oxygen depletion is a competing factor with heating of the building atmosphere and propagation is not predicted to occur for spent fuel that has been cooled for more than three years even without ventilation.”
Recall that under the worst conditions possible, the Sandia study found that spent fuel stored only 3 years might cause a large issue. The Brookhaven folks showed that fuel stored only 3 years might overheat, but would not create the worst fire possible.
Yup. The spent fuel will not be moved, it will not all be dry casked, it will be radioactive for centuries and dangerous for decades. It is entirely possible that every nuclear reactor that is in operation today will have a fire in the spent fuel pool(s) and it is entirely possible that the fire will be the worst possible. Assuming the worst happens at every facility, there will be roughly 1000 areas with a 15 mile radius that will be unsafe for the foreseeable future. If the population density in those 200 square mile area is high, millions will die or wish for death. Millions.
Spent fuel pools cannot:
1. Explode
2. Spread radiation uphill more that 20 – 30 miles
3. cause human extinction
Spent fuel pools will:
1. Contaminate surface and groundwater including the oceans
2. Make a terrible mess in the immediate area
Tell your tribe where the nukes are, and make sure the young ones know that it is crucial that their decedents never forget where those unsafe areas are. Do not live anywhere near one. No hysteria or histrionics are necessary, but FE lives for histrionics and hysteria, so please FE ignore the facts again. I will post this later.
Glowingly Yours,
Pintada
It is just amazing that I can post the facts over, and over and over again and no-one can (or will) study up on the subject.
Just as a hint … I get a lot of my information from textbooks. For those unfamiliar with those things, they are generally about 8″ x 10″ wide and about 2 inches thick. They usually have a picture on nearly every page, but the pictures are about the subject, not boobs.
If anyone is really interested in nuclear chemistry, and would like to know more about it than Fast Eddie. I recommend a textbook on the subject. Any actual science text would do, but this one is for high school level:
https://smile.amazon.com/Introduction-Nuclear-Chemistry-High-School/dp/1533248257/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1491259053&sr=8-1&keywords=nuclear+chemistry
What you have posted as a rebuttal to my research what quotes very credible sources… is that fuel ponds will not catch fire if they are not stored in closely together — essentially they could in theory be air cooled..
But for whatever reason – that is not how they are stored — that might be because that method is too expensive — or perhaps because it works in theory but nobody believes it will work in practice.
This is how spent fuel is stored – this is the reality – this is what is know as a fact:
It has been known for more than two decades that, in case of a loss of water in the pool, convective air cooling would be relatively ineffective in such a “dense-packed” pool.
Spent fuel recently discharged from a reactor could heat up relatively rapidly to temperatures at which the zircaloy fuel cladding could catch fire and the fuel’s volatile fission product, including 30-year half-life Cs, would be released. The fire could well spread to older spent fuel. The long-term land-contamination consequences of such an event could be significantly worse than those from Chernobyl. http://science.time.com/2011/03/15/a-new-threat-in-japan-radioactive-spent-fuel/
The problem is if the spent fuel gets too close, they will produce a fission reaction and explode with a force much larger than any fission bomb given the total amount of fuel on the site. All the fuel in all the reactors and all the storage pools at this site (1760 tons of Uranium per slide #4) would be consumed in such a mega-explosion. In comparison, Fat Man and Little Boy weapons dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki contained less than a hundred pounds each of fissile material – See more at: http://www.dcbureau.org/20110314781/natural-resources-news-service/fission-criticality-in-cooling-ponds-threaten-explosion-at-fukushima.html
And the coup de grace:
‘At most U.S. nuclear plants, spent fuel is densely packed in pools’ http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/05/spent-fuel-fire-us-soil-could-dwarf-impact-fukushima
Read all the theory you want — this is they way spent fuel is stored.
“The problem is if the spent fuel gets too close, they will produce a fission reaction and explode with a force much larger than any fission bomb given the total amount of fuel on the site. All the fuel in all the reactors and all the storage pools at this site (1760 tons of Uranium per slide #4) would be consumed in such a mega-explosion.”
This is completely and utterly false. Completely wrong on a fundamental physical level. You really should try and read a book on the subject.
Posting URLs from opinion pieces, or on-line blogs is not an argument, it is, at best a joke, and at worst, an insult. When you actually work to begin learning enough to talk about the issue then perhaps we can have a discussion. As it stands, I would need to start by explaining what the term “radioactivity” means.
Its the same reason that i stopped trying to educate global warming deniers. Those that are not paid trolls are so ignorant of the basic science that there is no common point from which to proceed. Don’t worry though, I will re-post the basic facts for you every time i catch you spewing nonsense.
You’re Welcome,
Pintada
Surely a Nobel Prize Winning nuclear physicist would not make this up? I have posted his email and phone number below …..
Why don’t you ring him up and explain to him how his statement below is utterly false.
I have suggested you do this previously — why the reluctance?
You seem to know it all — you can even quote your Sandia recommendations report… the one that was ignored…
Perhaps you could ask him why it was ignored — why is nuclear spent fuel stored in dense pack formation — a structure that is extremely dangerous — and prone to catching fire and exploding.
Instead of ranting at the messenger — I have given you the the contacts of the person who wrote the message.
Now off you go … off you go.. the professor is waiting….
“If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies. Such a scenario would emit radioactive particles into the atmosphere”
Dr. Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress
Location
CNS Building, 499 Van Buren St.
Email jdalnokiveress@miis.edu
Phone 831.647.4638
Scientist in Residence and Adjunct Professor
Dr. Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress is Scientist-in-Residence at CNS and holds an MSc and PhD in high energy physics from Carleton University, Canada, specializing in ultra-low radioactivity background detectors and has professional experience in the field of astroparticle physics, primarily neutrino physics.
He has been involved in several major discoveries in the field of neutrino physics and has worked on several international collaborations in Canada, Germany, Italy, and the United States (see below) including the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory (SNO), Double Chooz and Borexino experiments. He was a member of the SNO Collaboration that won the 2015 Nobel Prize in physics. He is also a laureate along with his team of the 2016 Breakthrough Prize in Physics.
He has contributed to more than 40 articles in refereed and non-refereed journals.
Science in the Public Interest
After a rewarding career as an experimental physicist he switched fields to physics in the public service. He concluded a postdoctoral position at Princeton University’s Physics Department in 2008 and became a Professional Specialist at the Princeton Program on Science and Global Security (Woodrow Wilson School of International and Public Affairs) working on the development of particle simulations of novel detection schemes for checking the declared HEU inventories of naval-reactor cores. He joined CNS in 2009, and focused on the proliferation of fissile materials, nuclear spent fuel management, nuclear reactor safety, emergency preparedness and verification of nuclear disarmament. His work analyzing radionuclide data from the Fukushima crisis has been quoted in Nature Magazine, New Scientist, Time Magazine, and newspapers. He recently contributed to a research project analyzing technical developments in the negotiations between the P5+1 and Iran.
Expertise
Nuclear Reactors, Spent Fuel, Neutrino Physics
Current Courses
Dr. Dalnoki-Veress recognizes that knowledge of science is crucial for understanding weapons of mass destruction and the security threats they pose. In this sense, he has focused on courses where science and policy meet. He coordinates the course Science for NPTS (NPTG 8559) which is a required course and is taught every semester. He also teaches a novel course titled Nuclear Treaty Verification in a Virtual World (NPTG 8612) which uses avatar based virtual reality to simulate the protocol for the verification of nuclear weapons.
http://www.miis.edu/academics/faculty/FDalnokiVeress/node/23025
Perhaps you can explain why the Japanese government had contingency plans to evacuate a city of nearly 20,000,000 people if the spent fuel ponds at Fukushima had boiled dry.
Japan’s chief cabinet secretary called it “the devil’s scenario.” Two weeks after the 11 March 2011 earthquake and tsunami devastated the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, causing three nuclear reactors to melt down and release radioactive plumes, officials were bracing for even worse.
They feared that spent fuel stored in the reactor halls would catch fire and send radioactive smoke across a much wider swath of eastern Japan, including Tokyo.
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/05/burning-reactor-fuel-could-have-worsened-fukushima-disaster
And for the thousandth time — the Sandia Report is decades old – it contains recommendations — none of which have been adopted.
Why not? I dunno …
Maybe because the costs would be astronomical?
Maybe because there is other research that has determined the Sandia recommendations are good in theory but in practice not helpful.
All I know is this:
‘It has been known for more than two decades that, in case of a loss of water in the pool, convective air cooling would be relatively ineffective in such a “dense-packed” pool.’
http://science.time.com/2011/03/15/a-new-threat-in-japan-radioactive-spent-fuel/
‘At most U.S. nuclear plants, spent fuel is densely packed in pools, heightening the fire risk’
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/05/spent-fuel-fire-us-soil-could-dwarf-impact-fukushima
‘more than 1,300 used fuel rod assemblies packed tightly together ‘
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/14/us-japan-fukushima-insight-idUSBRE97D00M20130814
In Sweden everything is great and destined to become even greater. Government running on surplus. Only minor problems are high private debt and unemployment among immigrants, and falling PISA scores (that are raising again).
Same in Denmark. The company I’m working for (a major wind turbine manufacturer) are still hiring like crazy. The economy is good. Unemployment rate is low. Gas prices are low. As far as I can see , my house went up 50% in value over 4 years, mostly due to low interest rates and people wanting to live in the big cities. It is now worth 3 times as much as I bought it for 14 years ago.
A big issue and worry in Denmark is immigration from Muslim countries. I used to worry a lot about that too, thinking we might end with civil war, but now I realize that is the least of our problems.
This Wolf Street article talks about the high level of debt in Denmark. http://wolfstreet.com/2017/03/31/denmark-household-debt-risks-full-employment/
This is a major reason for the increases in home values and the low unemployment rate.
Denmark is finding that it needs to subsidize its wind energy more and more, at the same time that its imports an increasing amount of electricity from elsewhere.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/netherlands-wind-energy-amount-paid-for-electricity-under-pso-compared-to-market-value.png
Long-term, It is not likely really a success story.
Swedish home prices up 75% since GFC (which wasn’t noticed here).
Invite lots of people.
To few homes so building more starts.
Put the new arrivals in less good neighborhoods.
People move from there to better.
A debt-fueled moving chain starts where buying a home for 10-15x taxed year salary is normal.
Every move means a profit of which 21% is taxed. (Rest used for a car, new kitchen, all-inclusive in Thailand)
The highly leveraged must mortgage 2% per year, most not at all.
Everyone assumes this will go on forever.
If population is shrinking, it is hard to justify any new debt. Adding immigrants allows a lot more debt. Japan has worked around this problem by issuing a lot of government debt. Also, encouraged banks to lend to businesses that would otherwise be failing.
And in reality, those millions of MENA immigrants that are being stopped at the border of Europe are exactly what Europe needs. When you are a continent with Zero Population Growth your demographic structure means there are no young workers paying taxes to support all of the older pensioners. Mass immigration of young people with families who are ready to work is exactly what European countries should try and accomplish otherwise they will all be like Japan in twenty years, or sooner.
Actuaries built their models assuming that population would grow and grow. The materials needed to make goods and services would grow and grow as well, so that end products needed by the public would grow and grow, in a similar fashion. Pollution would not be a problem.
One thing actuaries did figure out correctly for public pensions (such as Socail Security), and that is that the programs have to be on a pay as you go basis. Benefits are not guaranteed. The economy can only give out in pensions what is available in surplus in a given year.
The US has a little alleged prefunding. This was intended to try to do a workaround to handling the big bulge of baby boomers. But the prefunded money was really spent, since the us budget as a whole is pay as you go. So all that is left is a different type of debt–debt that is not held by the public at large. A person often sees two types of debt figures for the US. The extra Social Security funding is part of the difference.
In Alaska,
I suppose you wrote to me.
Trouble is: after 10 years (used to be 7 just about 3 years ago), 50% of working age immigrants are working.
Working defined as at least one hour per week of work. Or education. Or another occupation.
Unless we can’t figure out how to get them into work they will only function indirectly as a vehicle of debt creation.
Most of these refugees have no skills — and do not speak the language of the countries they have entered…
One only has to look to France — loads of Algerians piled in after Algeria beat the French decades ago — there have been a couple of generations of Algerian French born in France… they speak the language yet unemployment levels are off the charts… https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/dec/19/french-algerians-still-second-class
So if it has not worked in France how will it work in the nordic countries – or anywhere else?
Unskilled labourers in large numbers are not the type of immigrants any country needs
InAlaska> sadly it’s true large part for the immigration policies is guided by the twisted logic of dystopian bureaucrats like Mackerel-Holland, let’s have nice couple of retirement years before it all blows up. Let’s channel some digital credit to these MENA sourced immigrants to pretend taxation schemes and pensions are actually working for a while longer..
In contrast the Japanese approach is much better, perhaps we are going down demographically and economically, but at least we go down as Japan proper, not some disgusting hell hole of rapidly en-mixed cultures and ethnics..
“InAlaska> sadly it’s true large part for the immigration policies is guided by the twisted logic of dystopian bureaucrats like Mackerel-Holland, let’s have nice couple of retirement years before it all blows up. Let’s channel some digital credit to these MENA sourced immigrants to pretend taxation schemes and pensions are actually working for a while longer.”
I am afraid immigration, at least in the swedish example, will have the opposite effect on pensions. In fact it’s an economical catastrophe, which unfortunately has been denied by the establishment in Sweden for a long time. This american journalist recently visited Sweden and made the fact resistant journalists in the local duck pond quite nervous:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0p7Oyvql9s
Gradually but slowly people here are realizing the mistake and the extent of fanatism of leading swedish media and politicians. Questioning immigration levels used to mean having a witch hunt at your heels with ruined career and social life as a result.
“and spread OFW ideas outside of this walled garden.”
That’s exactly what I, doing, I never say outright what is really going on, just little tidbits here and there, except for my family, I felt duty bound to let them know what’s up, even my brother who has a full-time job and student loans to pay off. :-/ I think he might have been better off not knowing, but I had to tell him what was on my mind at some point.
Dolph….. dude….. Don’t despair.
Don’t let FE’s rosy picture cloud your judgment. He doesn’t even have any can-a-bals in it. It’ll be great. People will actually look up from their screens.
The Zombie Apocalypse is one of the hottest marketing opportunities of all time. They even have weekly updates on that zombie TV show on Google News.
Zombies are huge. Remember, Fake News is just another name for advertising.
I’ve got a fantastic plan for an investment fund that is bound to go exponential. It’s called –
ZA+x….”How Long Will You Last?”
We sell shares and build a pot and when the ZA comes we’ll make a payout to all the survivors at x days. I’m thinking something like a 51% payout in 21 days. I figure that half the population won’t last three weeks after the trucks stop running. The countdown starts when I can stand by my interstate, I-30, and see no trucks for five minutes. No food and no fuel deliveries happening. The starving hoards are just a few days away. And they’ll look a lot like zombies staggering around looking for something to eat.
So invest now and if you can last 21 days after the ZA you get all your money back plus at least a 1% dividend. That’s 1% in 3 weeks, which is 17% per annum. That’s not bad considering that everything else just went to zero.
The 50% reduction of the population in 21 days isn’t exactly set in stone. 21 is a number with lots of positive connotations such as winning at Blackjack and the legal age to purchase liquor etc. Half the population looks like they’re ready to keel over any minute, so 3 weeks of the ZA will take a big toll. I would certainly prefer to match the time frame with any actuarial data on rapid population decline if there is any available.
Unfortunately, when someone lays the cards on the table about what it will mean when you call 911 and get a recording…..there is a lot of denial. A previous comment said that people who didn’t do the prepper thing “did better”. And that the preppers “are working for a future that doesn’t arrive”. All I can say is…….yet. I sure don’t want to be in a city when the ZA shows up. There are quite a few of us that get the idea that this is a finite planet and that we’re due for a correction. These people are our investors. They’ll be all over ZA+x. After the first pay out we’ll have a 10% payout each week to the remaining survivors. For the next 3 weeks the number of survivors will go down each week so the amount of each share will go up. It’ll be fantastic. The total payout will be 81%, which leaves 19% for administrative cost
I know there will be questions about how we will get the payments out after the ZA. No problem. As soon as we get some money in the pot we’ll hire Elon Musk to do something like a PayPal 2.0. If he can fly tourists around the Moon, this little project will be a no-brainer.
This is a sure thing. Trust me. It’ll be fantastic.
HOW LONG WILL YOU LAST?
http://observer.com/2017/01/brace-for-the-oil-food-and-financial-crash-of-2018/
That’s a good article on peak oil.
‘unless we choose a fundamentally different path’
Wrong. Impossible.
Question for Doomsday Preppers:
Does stockpiling and growing food have a huge downside?
I was thinking about this last night over a beer watching a band with the Madame… I noticed when Madame walked to the bathroom as well as with other women — how the predominantly male crowd eyed them up
And I got to wondering — if there were no threat of the law (which there won’t be post BAU) — would not some of these characters get in their heads and think – I’ll have some of that — that Fast Eddy guy doesn’t look so tough… especially if I cane him with a bottle when he’s not looking… after all — who’s gonna do anything about it…
So fast forward a little…. there you are — doomsday prepper — all set up with carefully a prepared garden — the nice young wife/daughters/sons…. you’ve got it all worked out!
But then the guy with the bottle gets wind of your oasis … and he shows up with his mates… and you put up a fight — and he sticks a knife in you …. and takes the oasis…
But he doesn’t kill the women folk … oh no no no … he keeps them around…. for entertainment.. if ya knows what I means… while he eats you cans of beans…
And if there are any sons who don’t put up a fight and get stabbed… he yokes them and sends them into the garden to grow food for him… or maybe he does a Deliverance on them….
Does not doomsday prepping just lead to great suffering and misery for you and your family?
Doesn’t matter how tough you are — if you have what others want — there is no way you can fend them off… you won’t be able to tend the fields without becoming an easy target…
The worst elements will rise to the top when the police are gone… and they’ll be looking for food… and women…. a puff of smoke from the chimney will bring them charging towards you….
Your prepping is likely condemning your women to a brutal end.
Is it not better just to go down with the ship?
Another upbeat observation from our very own Fast Eddy.
I reckon that’s a highly likely outcome…. far more likely than people dancing about the campfire drinking organic beer and just ‘getting along’
However bad you may think things will get — it will be 1000x worse.
It will be a 1000x worse than any report you have ever written about a disastrous event in human history
It will be unthinkable
What Fast Eddy fails to realize is everything is temporary, nothing will be forever and there are other scenarios that may transpire in your neck of the woods.
Lady Fortuna was a held in high regard in the Ancient World, and the wheel of chance could easily turn in your favor.
In another words, even when the barbarians overran the Roman Provinces, there were villas and estates that remained unscratched by these savage tribesman.
They recognized the functioning operation was to their favor than rape and destruction.
So, if you are able to provide friends with benefits, who knows?
So Lady Fortuna favors the bold…isn’t that so?
Read your history — the predominant outcome when men do not have enough — is murder, pillage, rape…
And there most certainly is not going to be anywhere enough when BAU ends.
LOL! Fast Eddy must be in the Simpsons
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=o0tU9rvjW_E
One thing about Our Eddy….he is stubborn to the end…one thing Lady Fortuna frowns on,
Do not confuse stubborn with being right
What can I say Eddy, except this is YOUR SONG, kiddo,
https://m.youtube.com/watch?list=PL4A220A16E90792F9&v=JynwVKXzc9s
But I like organic beer! It goes great with turkey. Mmmmm, turkey and beer. Time for dinner!
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-j32QPe7-rGQ/WN_k6bl1VmI/AAAAAAAAsqI/zuUvty_plFwr1Dn2Yx181GTJqKD5TtQ2wCLcB/s640/Screenshot%2B2017-03-28%2Bat%2B8.48.37%2BPM.png
Says Kurt “I am wrong about everything therefore I exist”
With the hops, alcohol, and tryptophan, you will be one mellow human.
No one will be harshing your mellow.
Except for FE. He hates it when I bring up that turkey thing. Even during the financial apocalypse, there will be turkey. So it is written, so it shall be done.
Eddy, some of us have been in the core longer than you have. We discussed this many years ago. Basically you will need a group of like minded people (at least 6 adults), all physically fit and mentally prepared. A single family can’t go it alone. James Wesley Rawles has a web site (https://survivalblog.com/) and has written several books about how a dedicated group can survival the end of BAU. You really need to assess how old you are, and how much pain you are willing to endure. We are all going to die eventually. Surviving during a die off is going to be no fun. And what are you going to get in the end?
Too small, perhaps?
The minimum group for survival is surely the tribe.
A group of six can be finished in a moment: accident, aggression, illness, failed harvest, etc……
We think to much about personal survival.
I regret to inform you that if you believe what you have just posted … then you are not in The Core.
As I have posted on numerous occasions after questioning my own prepper delusions:
1. What happens if BAU goes down in winter or when the crop is not ready to harvest.
2. What happens when your neighbours show up at the farm – women and children — asking for food – and you have barely enough to feed you and your group – will you kill your neighbours
3. How do you defend a crop from a horde of hungry people who rush in at night and rip everything from the ground – are you going to post arm guards in the garden — do you think that a few armed guards waiting in the dark will not have their throats slit — or get a bullet in the head
4. How do work your fields when there are armed men trying to take your oasis — who shoot at you while you work
5. How do you defend a home when there are desperate armed men who know there is food – and women – to be had in that home. You are aware that when invaders showed up in the past… the serfs abandoned the farms and gathered inside the castle walls.. Do you have a castle wall to hide behind.
Doomsday prepping is a complete waste of time, money and effort.
The trick is to navigate through “end of times” in such a manner that your “oasis” is possibly taken (or attempted) at the very *last rounds-stages of chaos. I hope this is enough said to spark bright minds here about both the positive and negative aspects of this strategy and working out the details individually per given circumstances.
However, one still should make provisions for deliberate fast departure (out of this simulation lolz) on your own volition, should the plans vs grim reality not pan out as hoped..
*obviously your mileage may vary, the difference of hours, days, weeks, months, or even years comes to play..
Probably best to take a clinical and pre-emptive approach to those kinds of threats, FE.
Much better is to have a ship.
see cluborlov.com. saliboats = doomsday getaway craft. best to live aboard so when the time comes, you get to retain ownership.
Probably a way to last longer than everyone else…. because you can avoid the violence…
But sail boats don’t provide immunity to radiation … parts break and cannot be replaced… and so on…
It’s hard to think or imagine that we are all going to wake up one day to a suburban area very different from the one we went to sleep in. It reminds me of a story I heard some time ago from California. There was a massive power outage and all lights went out and people were walking out of their houses and apartments into the streets etc and were gazing up into the skies in wonder and awe and why? Well for the first time in their lives they actually saw what the skies look like when pitch dark. There were no artificial lights to drown out the heavens etc. The wonder of the heavens and the stars shimmering in all their glory it was just too much to gaze at. It was an experience that I heard many would not soon forget. Yeah, we have another outage coming soon to I’m afraid. Reminds me of:
“But watch yourselves lest your hearts be weighed down with dissipation and drunkenness and cares of this life, and that day come upon you suddenly like a trap.” Luke 21:34
Yeah, for those who don’t pay attention imagine the trap they will be in WOW! Thanks Gail for this website and blog learned a tremendous amount.
Likewise:
“People fainting with fear and with foreboding of what is coming on the world. For the powers of the heavens will be shaken.” Luke 21:26
My or our ultimate question however should be is given all of the climate changes occurring with the roaring of the seas and what not is this actually man induced or are we actually witnessing now the truth of these words?
“And there will be signs in sun and moon and stars, and on the earth distress of nations in perplexity because of the roaring of the sea and the waves, people fainting with fear and with foreboding of what is coming on the world. For the powers of the heavens will be shaken.” Luke 21:25-26
http://www.openbible.info/topics/mens_hearts_failing_them_for_fear
Apparently, it won’t be just the end of oil that we will be witnessing but a great deal more I’m afraid and His Crop Circles are a part of this warning to don’t you know? .
and:
“And when these things begin to come to pass, then look up, and lift up your heads; for your redemption draweth nigh.” Luke 21:28
Now there’s a promise to live by and here’s a thought to the hell with oil depletion! Let it come for we like Noah knew what the secret is and so do we all now know. Well hopefully anyway.
Amazing stuff and blog.
“And there will be signs in sun and moon and stars, and on the earth distress of nations in perplexity because of the roaring of the sea and the waves, people fainting with fear and with foreboding of what is coming on the world. For the powers of the heavens will be shaken.” Luke 21:25-26
Ya well you might apply that brilliant prediction to a thousand things that have happened since… world wars… tsunamis… giant volcanoes ….
Can you find something more specific… something like ‘and the world will be thrown into darkness, disease, death and radiation poisoning because man burned up all the easy to extract fossil fuels’
If you can’t find something like that then to tell you honestly — I am not interested in reading this bible thumping bull789t.
Hi jerry, here’s a bible study assignment you’ll find enlightening:
Quote the passages where your god commands humans to commit genocide, rape, murder, and slavery. This biblical wisdom seems far more relevant in a collapse situation, right?
Take your time (there’s so many!). Then get back to us, and explain what you’ve learned.
Cheers.
Wow, since a blog has no where near the room or time for me to answer consider instead:
fhttp://chuckbaldwinlive.com/Articles/tabid/109/ID/3581/This-Is-Not-Going-To-End-Well.aspx
I guess the one good thing about oil depletion is it will quickly kill all of the military aggression to be replaced unfortunately with ‘genocide, rape, murder and slavery’ of another kind. The way of the world and as it was at one time an eye for and eye and a tooth for a tooth Christ came to offer us all a different way but as He said Himself few there be that find it.
This is rather interesting http://www.evilbible.com/do-not-ignore-the-old-testament/ten-commandments/
Ten Commandments… as in the ENTIRE ten commandments…
1st. Commandment, Exodus 20:3 “Thou shalt have no other gods before me”. Old Testament punishment – Deuteronomy 17:1-5 “And hath gone and served other gods, and worshiped them, either the sun, or moon, or any of the host of heavens, which I have not commanded. Then shalt thou bring forth that man or that woman, which have committed that wicked thing and shalt stone them with stones, till they die”. Deuteronomy 14:6-10, “If thy brother, the son of thy mother, or thy son, or thy daughter, or the wife of thy bosom, or thy friend, which is of thine own soul, entice thee secretly, saying, Let us go and serve other gods, which thou hast not known, thou, nor thy fathers; Thou shalt not consent unto him, nor hearken unto him; neither shall thine eye pity him, neither shalt thou spare, neither shalt thou conceal him: But thou shalt surely kill him; thine hand shall be first upon him to put him to death, and afterwards the hand of all the people. Thou shalt stone him with stones, that he die; because he hath sought to thrust thee away from the Lord thy God.” Exodus 22:20 “He that sacrificeth unto any god, save unto the Lord only, he shall be utterly destroyed”. New Testament punishment – Mark 16:16 “He that believeth not, shall be damned”.
2nd. Commandment, Exodus 20:4 “Thou shalt not make unto thee any graven image, or any likeness of anything that is in heaven above, or that is on the earth beneath, or that is in the water below.” Old Testament punishment- Deuteronomy 27: 1 5 “Cursed be the man that maketh any graven or molten image.” That’s right kids don’t EVER draw, sculpt or paint or else god will curse you. Wanna be an artist, a photographer, take a picture of yourself or family? TOO BAD, God says no! You better drop out of art class before he smites you with boils.
3rd. Commandment, Exodus 20:7 “Thou shalt not take the name of the Lord in vain”. Old Testament punishment – Leviticus 24:16 “And he that blasphemeth the name of the Lord, he shall surely be put to death”, New Testament punishment – Matthew 12:32 “Whosoever speaketh against the Holy Ghost, it shall not be forgiven him, neither in this world, neither in the world to come”. Mark 3:29 – “He that shall blaspheme against the Holy Ghost hath never forgivness, but is in danger of eternal damnation”.
4th. Commandment, Exodus 20:8 “Remember the Sabbath day, to keep it holy”. Old Testament punishment – Exodus 31:15 “Whosoever shall work in the Sabbath day, he shall surely be put to death”. Numbers 15:32. “And while the children of Israel were in the wilderness, they found a man that gathered sticks upon the Sabbath day…And all the congregation brought him without the camp, and stoned him with stones, and he died; as the Lord commanded Moses.”
5th. Commandment, Exodus 20:12 “Honour thy father and thy mother”. Old Testament punishment – Exodus 21:15-17 “And he that smiteth his father, or his mother, shall be surely put to death”. More punishment – Exodus 21:17 “And he that curseth his father, or his mother, shall surely be put to death”.
6th. Commandment, Exodus 20:13 “Thou shalt not kill”. Strangely enough this is a commandment despite all the punishments that require death in the New Testament and the Old Testament. How can thou not kill when thou is commanded to kill at the same time? This hypocrisy should be pointed out if the ten commandments are posted in schools, court rooms and buildings of legislation. The confusion of this commandment would surely bring capitol punishment into question.
7th. Commandment, Exodus 20:14 “Thou shalt not commit adultery”. Old Testament punishment – Leviticus 20:10 “And the man that committeth adultery with another man’s wife, the adulterer and the adulteress shall be put to death”.
Much more http://www.evilbible.com/do-not-ignore-the-old-testament/ten-commandments/
“Will you sweep away the righteous with the wicked? What if there are fifty righteous people in the city? Will you really sweep it away and not spare the place for the sake of the fifty righteous people in it? Far be it from you to do such a thing – to kill the righteous with the wicked, treating the righteous and wicked alike. Far be it from you! Will not the Judge of all the earth do right?”
– Abraham (Gen 18:23-25)
Or in other words — a call to genocide
Very funny.
Of course, one can turn it around and say that, as clearly the people of the time were generally so brutal, the Divine limitation on beatings represented a great liberal step forward…..
Acute observers will have seen European gentlefolk carrying elegant canes in portraits: these were to beat servants, (generally only a sharp tap, as other servants administered heavier punishment -as the great Voltaire himself was beaten by an offended aristo) a habit only broken by the French Revolution, and in Russia not until 1917.
I think most of us regulars here don’t have an once of religiousness in us….I would say most of us are atheists…no one will save us…we are no more special than any other species..
God is a psychopathic computer programmer 🙂
Crom breathes the breath of life into us at the time of our birth.
Isn’t that enough? What more could we ask of our Creator?
https://youtu.be/RBMY3VV5AMA
“we are no more special than any other species.” – I would say we are less special. We have the capacity to destroy this planets ecosystem.
I was driving around my suburban area today and I thought, this place is simultaneously heaven and hell.
It’s heaven because of the amazing abundance of everything, the large houses, the manicured lawns, the seemingly prosperous people.
It’s hell because everybody is driving around everywhere, in large cars. And without a constant stream of inputs, things could go south pretty quickly.
I’m feeling confused and empty inside. I don’t know what to believe anymore.
We who “see through the predicament a bit earlier” are few but basically not that special, there have been transition/trend rupture period numerous time before. Yes, it could be an ordeal to be witnessing such a delicate balance ready to snap into other (chaotic) state, especially near very long term/hard kind of cycle reshuffles, as it is probably now. To be looking at both, the old dominant-legacy world and the new nascent world (crash and post crash) is maddening.
Follow The Core dolph…. we are The Truth.
Fast Eddy Enterprises has secured the exclusive rights to Abilify on FW…. anyone feeling anxious about the situation can click here to get a 241 deal … http://www.abilifydeal.com
Believe in….. yourself, of course!
David Bowie beat you to it!
Don’t believe in yourself, don’t deceive with belief
Knowledge comes with death’s release
Aah-aah, aah-aah, aah-aah, aah-aah…
https://youtu.be/oP2SS8ggLtU
dolph-
All our beliefs will be and are being tested. Whether religious or not, confusion and emptiness are what many of us are going to, or are, experiencing. I know many religious people feel that admitting what you have means they lack faith. It seems the same among atheists. As if facing death is nothing.
For what its worth, I think it is perfectly natural. Talking to others is a real help.
Say what you will about Kuntsler, as a city planner I’ve long appreciated this quote from The Geography of Nowhere: “Eighty percent of everything ever built in America has been built in the last fifty years, and most of it is depressing, brutal, ugly, unhealthy, and spiritually degrading.”
The built environment has a profound effect on psychology, and we’ve essentially built ourselves a prison to live in. Or maybe more appropriately, a zoo for hairless apes, with some exhibits nicer than others.
I studied one year at a school on the border with the US and would drive across regularly to fill up with cheap petrol… you could tell when you were in the US because it had a decrepit look about it… crumbling infrastructure … with a feel of desperation about it
That was 25 years ago … I would imagine it’s far worse now
OTOH, I was struck when driving through Nogales to Mexico how manicures and “green” and boxed in and “neat was the landscape here–as though all that green was in prison and forced to wear a crew cut. Then passing over to Mexico, where the landscape was ochre and simple, with no constricting elements. That was long ago. So the US landscape is hellish, one way or another.
I agree with this. My views differ from Kunstler’s on several points, but this he gets correct, IMO. Physical locations are viewed entirely in terms of their potential to create wealth. There is no consideration for beauty, posterity, or keeping nature intact. Nothing can be allowed to exist that doesn’t exist in service to the economy and infinite growth.
Regarding the EROEI of renewables, or any artifact for that matter, I find the concept of emergy analysis as defined by Odum to be helpful to fully realize how much embedded energy there is in a piece of high tech gear, and how dependent it is on the entire economic system supply chains to be possible to manufacture. With this approach, one finds that the EROEI values are much worse than commonly thought.
A minor point- in your description of economies as dissipative structures, I would say that human populations actually rise proportionately to the totality of inputs, just not the sustainable ones. When the one time fossil input stream declines, human populations will follow suite.
In a comment below, Creedon states “…the current 3 percent per year decline in net energy.” Any comment on how that 3 percent is derived?
For my own purposes I did an extremely simplistic back-of-the napkin calculation assuming a background depletion rate of conventional oil of ~4million barrels per day per year, and then translated the lost BTU’s into man hours of work. Those losses would easily explain the “hidden” deflationary force behind the economy.
Yes, I am aware of how simplistic this approach is, that waste heat has to be considered, the costs of refining, delivery of refined fuels, etc. etc. Also that there is at least one model that attempts calculate the net energy decline from conventional oil production.
Project Codename * buy Eddy a private jet, with a harem *
The story so far.. the world economy MUST grow. Everything, all calculations, all institutions, everything, depend on the world economy growing. Because we live in an finite world, thats why energy and raw materials and food become a problem, eventually. Growth ad infinitum on a finite world is.. impossible. Therefore some fine day, all banks, and all currencies and all stocks and bonds will go to zero. Simultaneously. SHTF.
But when? And what will happen in the meantime? Because there MUST be growth, governments have been borrowing , increasing debt loads. Doubling up on government debt in most countries in the world..
Currently the ECB is printing money in the billions, to buy corporate debt. To keep the economy growing..
Currently central banks as the swiss central bank, prints money to prop up stock. It buys stocks, with printed money (such as Apple and Facebook).
Central banks are printing money and buying every stock, every bond, every currency, every commodity and precious metal there is. We now live in an CB Twilight Zone global market.. it no longer follows any “natural” ‘market laws’
How long can this continue? How many doublings of government debt can we have? When will ZIRP and NIRP make the banks default, make pensions default?
Enter Project Codename * buy Eddy a private jet, with a harem *..
The central banks NEED ways to prop up the system. They NEED mystery buyers from Belgium to pop up here and there. The more we now go forward, the more distorted the global financial markets will become. Because governments are head over heels in debt, the governments need NIRP. But NIRP hurts the banks. The central banks from around the world will NEED to buy bank bonds in the trillions. But descreetly. So that confidence in the banks, or the markets, will not falter. Also ZIRP and NIRP will hurt pension funds. Make pensions default. Pension funds will NEED an investment opportunity that is sure to succeed heavily. Pension funds have a NEED to invest, and get heavy returns = pensions. Simultaneously the US debt NEEDs to double again, somehow. Simultaneously the UK, Chinese and the Japanese government debts need to double, yet again, somehow. AND simultaneously shale oil, oil, NG, coal, all kind of energy companies and raw material, food, commodities would need freshly printed money from the CBs in the trillions, somehow, fast.
Now how do we buy Eddy a private jet, with this info ?? How can we make sure he gets an harem with A-listers??
Well if the CBs have such a huge panic on how they can print money fast enough, in the trillions, and descreetly buy up the world markets, pretty much in everything. Banks NEED someone to buy their bonds in the trillions. And pension funds NEED a sure investment that will provide them with billions in earnings = pensions, fast. Then clearly we can offer to be the fall guy in between.. offer the CBs a financial service, where we get freshly printed money from the CBs. In the trillions. We buy up bank bonds in the trillions and make the banks invest globally trillions in all what was needed above. And we make it all look legit by taking investments in from pension funds, and give them earnings = pensions, in the trillions. And this way we can continue ZIRP and NIRP a few years more.
And this way, with just a miniscule cut of, hmm.. maybe 0,5% we are successfull with Project Codename * buy Eddy a private jet, with a harem * and Eddy finally gets his private jet and harem 😉
Sounds like a plan!
I have heard it argued that central bank interventions can keep the game going indefinitely and proponents of Modern Monetary Theory will even claim that there is a fiscal/monetary solution for our situation – but this is akin to claiming that a human with a nutritional deficit can be ‘cured’ via chemical means.
Sure, you can dull the pain of hunger pangs with opioids and temporarily boost lagging energy levels with amphetamines – but such interventions may in their own right prove fatal as they further destabilise a weakening system.
The problem is not fundamentally monetary in nature ergo there can be no monetary solution.
Who needs actual quality resources…maybe the virtual world the CBs live in can actually supercede the physical world…forever!!
Maybe the Global Economy can mimic this guy…no physical inputs whatsoever needed:
http://www.collective-evolution.com/2013/07/04/a-man-has-not-eaten-or-drank-any-liquids-for-70-years-science-examines-him/
Right! More debt is a temporary solution. It cannot be a permanent solution. It can temporarily prop up slowing growth in resources extracted per person, and thus finished goods and services produced per capita. But ultimately, it the goods and services per capita become a problem, with or without more debt. Look at Venezuela, Egypt, and Syria. Individual countries, with their programs, cannot prop up world demand sufficiently to keep commodity prices high enough.
Pension funds could be invested in securitized private student loans, if they haven’t been invested in securitized private student loans already. Under current U.S. laws, student who borrow cannot declare bankruptcy without serious repercussion, such as never being able to get a good job because of bad credit..or no welfare benefits.
So, provide us with some more “trade-able” hints and or how-to-s..
Simply, follow the people with “divine affinity” for money, they are often correct.
For example, I was personally advised (but foolishly not acted upon) by such one person early 2012 to expect short squeeze on TSLA and other tech stocks, months later (and with QE onslaught) it went up ~700%. Another case was the ~2014 prediction of “triangle of doom”, i.e. the energy deflation (affordability) scenario, shortly the energy companies and the funds following fossil fuels went down big time, gains at least in low hundreds of percent. Consequently, the resulting drop of Rubble and/or of Rosneft stocks reversed to big gains. Yet another one, the combined ticket of Trump-US (success) and Hofer-AUT (failure) election events was almost 1000%, again people envisioned this, shared the idea and arguments. Mind you, everything above, could have been performed by rudimentary retail instruments (stocks, even cash currencies, ETFs), no need for large commissions and delegated action upon trade agents for derivatives and other expertly stuff, where the true gains must have been gargantuan, i.e. the proverbial opulent FE style retirement before the age of 40-50..
I’m open to discuss another advice, but people are mostly silent these days, hah, which is kind of ominous sign, as the next big short will be perhaps impossible to collect on, lolz.
I would expect the kitchen sink will be thrown at gold around the $1280 level. A break above $1300 is game on.
After collapse, gold is worthless. Gold might be worth more if there is hyper inflation, but hyperinflation can not last long.
The hyperinflation scenario (as opposed to not allowed depression) also often correlates with inflationary stock market “growth” (not real value) and in other indices, hence a widow maker market for shorting.
I’d posit the tools increasingly used post 2008/9 to support the system, make the traditional plays like energy, core industrial stocks, less volatile by each cycle, they are sort of chained into a narrow channel with some but insignificant movement. And shallow corrections like -5/15% allowed by the gate keepers are useless for us retailers without special instruments of the big boys (derivates, various bond plays, ..) So, the energy of instability must go pushing some other place (apart from the bloated sphere of speculative sloshing)
There would probably appear some cracks first in areas not on the top priority list for TPTB micro management, something like a second and third tier of defense line. Wondering what could that be, some suggest the REITs might be allowed to fall next time soonish, they are useless in dot com shopping era, and banking losses could be papered over easily again. Who knows, however, I’d say it would be something even less debated sector next time.
Obviously, the hypothesis of openly acknowledged recession long overdue (and huge marker crash) is also possible, plus the officialdom reaction might include welcomed opportunity to push for even crazier surveillance police state. But as we have seen so many negative trends seem to collide around ~2023, it would be easier to keep kicking the can in sort of sideways market till then.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-31/bank-america-unexpectedly-warns-coming-manias-panics-and-crashes I personally think that the only thing that the big banks can’t control is the price of oil. They need the price to be higher. What they can’t control has the possibility of taking them out. We shall see.
I don’t agree with that – they ramped the priced of oil to well over $100 which encouraged investment into shale and various other high cost extraction plays… if not then the peak we saw in 2005 would have been the beginning of the end.
The reason oil is not price at $100+ now – and likely will never again be — is because oil that price poisons BAU with toxic side effects related to keeping BAU from imploding (see stimulus measures)….
The CBs essentially left BAU a rotting hunk of meat by keeping oil over 100 bucks for some years…
But the ends justified the means — if they had not done that — we would be dead already
totally agree… I bought gold in early 2007 — and am thinking of dumping most of it and spending the money on loose women and whiskey – then just wasting what remains
But as you point out there may be a period where having at least some delays the Eating of the Boiled Sewer Rat Under the Bridge Phase….
Gold is a 100% manipulated market… if the price goes beyond what the CBs are comfortable with … they can just smash it by dumping more paper gold into the market …
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-09/gold-silver-paper-has-been-rigged-20-years-podcast
You are correct. I would posit their comfort zone is priced at the $1280 level. Of course, they hate gold and silver not only because both represent real, constitutional money (article 1 sec. 10), but additionally, holding either metal has outperformed the S&P quite handily since the millennium, and done so with none of the risk.
Unless of course your name is Musk, Zuckerberg, Bezos, Tillerson, Johnson, et al which of course mine is not.
These are all attempts to overcome the current 3 percent per year decline in net energy. I believe that the fiat money system game is basically a confidence game. They still have confidence.
“I believe that the fiat money system game is basically a confidence game.”
Exactly. People perceive it has value as an accepted form of barter, therefore it does. The problem arises when that confidence wanes, which in the case of hyper-inflation, once it begins, historically proves to occur very fast. I’m amazed that with all the QE worldwide and borrowing vast sums inflation hasn’t taken hold on a big scale, but maybe it’s being offset by deflationary forces via decline in net energy.
John Williams of Shadow Stats has been saying for years that we will be hit suddenly by hyper inflation. I don’t know enough about how that takes place. To me global debt has already been hyper inflated.
It almost sounds like we need a new kind of infinity. Jesus is said to have fed the multitude from a small serving of fish and loaves. All it seemed to take was dividing it up as if to infinity. Somehow, everybody was convinced they had enough. So by subdividing complexity down somehow, we have something more like infinity to deal with. It’s a question of subdividing everything. “Subatomic” is a term I keep hearing. A subatomic level of the economic system? Is that related to the workings of negentropy? Now, if I could only figure out what beauty, intricacy, form, flow and refinement have to do with any of this, I might be getting somewhere.
Come the end of BAU … the ability to turn a loaf of bread into a thousand loaves… will be in high demand
I can turn a loaf of bread into 1000 really small ones.
What’s the answer to unsustainable complexity? A greater level of complexity. What is it Prew said? You can have non-equilibrium with order. Lacking someone to explain all this so I can understand it, I’m guessing, for practical purposes, it could mean that you make money out of smaller and smaller pieces of the pie. So you miniaturize your economy, while bringing it more into line with the natural world?
“According to the classical view, there was a sharp distinction between simple systems,
such as studied by physics or chemistry, and complex systems, such as studied by biology and human science. . . . Over the last decades, we have learned that, in non-equilibrium conditions, simple materials. . . can acquire complex behavior. This opens the way to new channels for transferring of knowledge from physics and mathematics to a variety of other fields (Prigogine 1985:19).”
http://courses.arch.vt.edu/courses/wdunaway/gia5524/Prew.pdf
Hi Art
I posted this originally after finding it when researching entropy. The point the author is making is in essence that Capitalism is a self organizing system out of equilibrium. So though it can have internal complexity it ultimately is creating chaos or entropy. The system will hold together as long as energy growth continues but when contraction begins it rapidly falls apart.
Like a hurricane it will grow until it runs out of energy flows. Which is like saying it runs until entropy stops the process.
Someone here posted an excellent reference on scarcity. Basically what we’re facing is a high entropy event. The non renewable commodities have such high levels of entropy the system can’t grow. But also can’t remain static it will dissipate.
In that process like a hurricane there will be gusts here and there. Maybe a few twisters pockets of low entropy being exploited. But until the system reaches equilibrium it will continue to collapse.
Interesting story from Euan’s site. The U.K. Intends to fuel an aircraft carrier with wood pellets. The concept is psychotic in that they plan to destroy one of their last standing forests in the name of going green. But it’s almost poetic in that the Brits destroyed their forests fueling the Elizabethan expansion.
Like Easter island once a system begins an unsustainable course it will play out quite predictably.
Globalization was a necessary element as local resources became restricted. Eventually the new world discoveries become played out. Then there is a snap back to local production because trade appears to be a net negative activity. Without the realization that local resources can’t support the system.
Politically we’re watching this play out right now.
Next comes fast collapse.
Wood pellet carrier? April Fool!!! (Sorry to have to point it out.)
The importation of wood pellets from Carolina to be burnt in the UK’s Drax power station almost could be satire. I’m assuming the ships that transport them are diesel-powered. The planned White Rose power station with sub-North Sea carbon capture capacity mentioned at the end of the article also sounds pretty far-fetched:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2014/12/141208-wood-pellet-energy-boom-driven-by-exports/
+++++++++++++++
Thanks for the explanation.
I like this train of thought…
Taking it further… as Rome collapsed the masses were kept occupied with bread and circuses…
I can provide modern day equivalent…
What I propose is what you said — but to make it palatable to the CBs — I will agree to wear a camera on my head 24/7….. much like the Truman Show — only I know that I am being watched…
Working Title: How to Blow a Billion Dollars in Year.
I will live the most depraved lifestyle for a year — essentially living like a disgusting pig — I will piss cash away on the most ridiculous things… total extravagance… I will appeal to the Paris Hilton fans by going by order of magnitude far beyond what she has ever done….
I will put Bieber to shame with the women I line up … Keith Richards wouldn’t be able to touch me in terms of the drug fueled orgies…
I’ll load into a kick ass yacht. private jet…. rent entire floors of the best hotels….
In fact I will send the private jet to Thailand just to pick up a crate of fresh mangoes… and since the jet is there I will load it up with pretty Thai uni students and they can feed me the mangoes (etc…)
I’ll pay poachers to bring me delicate meats from the rarest most endangered species on the planet…
I’ll flush the most expensive caviar down the toilet — just because I can….
Even the green groupies will feel compelled to tune in so they can enjoy some daily hate… so when they go to the Organic Coffee Shop in their Teslas they can hang about moaning ‘did you see what that pig Fast Eddy did today!!! He is sickening!!!’
Forget American Idol — or Star Wars — or The Titanic…. this will be absolutely HUGE!
The entire world will be following this.
I reckon the CBs fund… but why not also have a tiered pay per view annual subscription — in the wealthier countries let’s say 40 bucks a month per screen … in the third world we can do an entire village rate of say 100 bucks a year… bars of course need to pay commercial rates….
Then there will be tshirt and other memorabilia sales….
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/5d/70/49/5d704937f736a7b8781ffb8609990487.jpg
http://www.fashiontvromania.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Aniversare-Michel-Adam-05.jpg
(those are depictions of the ‘after’ pics to be taken when the billion is spent)
Musk to Test New Rocket in Late Summer Ahead of Tourist Mission
SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy key to sending customers around the moon
In keeping with Elon Musk’s mission to save the world with a series of green initiatives, Space X will fly anyone with a lot of money to spend on a sightseeing flight around the moon.
These flights will involve the burning of tonnes of rocket fuel which Musk says ‘is actually good for the environment because it offsets global warming’
Following the press conference Musk boarded his eco-friendly private jet to pick up his associate Lenny DiCaprio on the way to the Climate Summit in Geneva.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-31/musk-to-test-new-rocket-in-late-summer-ahead-of-tourist-mission
Elon Musk has produced a coloured drawing of a happy unicorn apparently farting into a device attached to one of his cars.
A rainbow and lots of smiley faces also appear.
‘Electric cars are good for the environment because electricity comes from magic.’
Follow his Twitter account to get the full Musk experience.
Is this how humanity ends, with such inane, and phoney, childishness?
The propaganda purpose of Musk Plc becomes ever more obvious:
‘It’s all alright, because we are going to the stars.’
And who really cares about resource limits, physics and all that stuff?
In the words of the film trailer that keeps on popping up:
‘Kong (ie Nature) thinks he’s king. It’s time to show Kong that MAN is King!’
Fighting the good fight against the evil oil companies, Trump supporting racists, and Darth Vader! Koombayah with a kick!
Bereft of dignity….
yeah, here’s the in flight movie-
https://youtu.be/BYbjK7sXUf8