Falling interest rates have huge power. My background is as an actuary, so I am very much aware of the great power of interest rates. But a lot of people are not aware of this power, including, I suspect, some of the people making today’s decisions to raise interest rates. Similar people want to sell securities now being held by the Federal Reserve and by other central banks. This would further ramp up interest rates. With high interest rates, practically nothing that is bought using credit is affordable. This is frightening.
Another group of people who don’t understand the power of interest rates is the group of people who put together the Peak Oil story. In my opinion, the story of finite resources, including oil, is true. But the way the problem manifests itself is quite different from what Peak Oilers have imagined because the economy is far more complex than the Hubbert Model assumes. One big piece that has been left out of the Hubbert Model is the impact of changing interest rates. When interest rates fall, this tends to allow oil prices to rise, and thus allows increased production. This postpones the Peak Oil crisis, but makes the ultimate crisis worse.
The new crisis can be expected to be “Peak Economy” instead of Peak Oil. Peak Economy is likely to have a far different shape than Peak Oil–a much sharper downturn. It is likely to affect many aspects of the economy at once. The financial system will be especially affected. We will have gluts of all energy products, because no energy product will be affordable to consumers at a price that is profitable to producers. Grid electricity is likely to fail at essentially the same time as other parts of the system.
Interest rates are very important in determining when we hit “Peak Economy.” As I will explain in this article, falling interest rates between 1981 and 2014 are one of the things that allowed Peak Oil to be postponed for many years.
Figure 1. 10-year Treasury Interest Rates. Chart prepared by St. Louis Fed.
These falling interest rates allowed oil prices to be much higher than they otherwise would have been, and thus allowed far more oil to be extracted than would otherwise have been the case.
Since mid 2014, the big change that has taken place was the elimination of Quantitative Easing (QE) by the US. This change had the effect of disrupting the “carry trade” in US dollars (borrowing in US dollars and purchasing investments, often debt with a slightly higher yield, in another currency).
Figure 2. At this point, oil prices are both too high for many would-be consumers and too low for producers.
As a result, the US dollar rose, relative to other currencies. This tended to send oil prices to a level that is too low for oil producers to make an adequate profit (Figure 2). In addition, governments of oil exporting countries (such as Venezuela, Nigeria, and Saudi Arabia) cannot collect adequate taxes. This kind of problem does not lead to immediate collapse. Instead, it “sets the wheels in motion,” leading to collapse. This is a major reason why “Peak Economy” seems to be ahead, even if no one attempts to raise interest rates.
The problem is not yet very visible, because oil prices that are too low for producers are favorable for importers of oil, such as the US and Europe. Our economy actually functions better with these low oil prices. Unfortunately, this situation is not sustainable. In fact, rising interest rates are likely to make the situation much worse, quickly.
In this post, I will explain more details relating to these problems.
Low interest rates are extremely beneficial to the economy; high interest rates are a huge problem.
Low interest rates allow consumers to purchase high-priced goods with affordable monthly payments. With low interest rates, consumers can afford to buy more consumer goods (such as homes and cars) than they could otherwise. Thus, low interest rates tend to lead to high demand for commodities of all kinds, thus raising the price of commodities, such as oil.
Low interest rates are also good for businesses and governments. Their borrowing costs are favorable. Because consumers are doing well, business revenues and tax revenues tend to grow at a brisk pace. It becomes easier to afford new factories, roads, and schools.
While low interest rates are good, a reduction in interest rates is even better.
A reduction in interest rates tends to make asset prices rise. The reason this happens is because if someone already owns an asset (examples: a home, factory, a business, shares of stock) and interest rates fall, that asset suddenly becomes more affordable to other people, so the price of that asset rises because of increased demand. For example, if the monthly mortgage payment for a house suddenly drops from $600 per month to $500 per month because of a reduction in interest rates, many more potential homeowners can afford to buy the house. The price of the house may be bid up to a new higher level–perhaps to a price level where the monthly payment is $550 per month–higher than previously, but still below the old payment amount.
Furthermore, if interest rates fall, owners of homes that have risen in value can refinance their mortgages and obtain the new lower interest rate. Often, they can withdraw the “excess equity” and spend it on something else, such as a new car or home improvements. This extra spending tends to stimulate the economy, and thus tends to raise commodity prices. Suddenly, investments in oil fields that previously looked too expensive to extract, and mines with ores of very low grade, start looking profitable. Businesses hire workers to staff the investments that are now profitable, stimulating the economy.
Businesses receive other benefits, as well, when interest rates fall. Their borrowing cost on new loans falls, making new investment more affordable. Demand for their products tends to rise. The additional demand that results from lower interest rates allows economies of scale to work their magic, and thus allows profits to rise.
Companies that have large portfolios of investments, such as insurance companies and pension funds, find that the values of their assets (stocks, bonds, and other investments) rise when interest rates fall. Thus, their balance sheets look better. (Of course, the low interest payments when interest rates are low provide a different problem for these companies. Here, we are talking about the impact of falling interest rates.)
Of course, the reverse of all of these things is also true. It is truly bad news when interest rates rise!
Wages Depend on Interest Rates and Debt Growth
When interest rates fall, debt levels tend to rise. This happens because expensive goods such as homes, cars, and factories become more affordable, so customers can buy more of them. Thus, falling interest rates are very closely associated with rising debt levels.
We find that when we look at debt levels, rising debt levels seem to be highly correlated with rising US per capita wages, (especially up until China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, and globalization took off). “Per capita wages” are calculated by dividing total wages and salaries by total population. Per capita wages thus reflect the impact of both (a) changes in the wages of individual workers and (b) changes in workforce participation. Using this measure “makes sense,” if we think of the total population as being supported by the wages of the working population, either directly or indirectly (such as through taxes).
Figure 3. Growth in US Wages vs. Growth in Non-Financial Debt. Wages from US Bureau of Economics “Wages and Salaries.” Non-Financial Debt is discontinued series from St. Louis Federal Reserve. (Note chart does not show a value for 2016.) Both sets of numbers have been adjusted for growth in US population and for growth in CPI Urban.
What does oil price depend upon?
Oil price depends upon the amount customers can afford to pay for oil and the finished products it produces. The amount customers can afford, in turn, depends very much on interest rates, since these influence both wages and monthly payments on loans. If the price that a significant share of consumers can afford is below the selling price of oil, we get an oil glut, as we have today.
It is important to note that oil and other energy products are important in determining the cost of finished products, such as cars, homes, and factories. Thus, high prices on energy products tend to ripple through the economy in many different ways. Many people consider only the change in the cost of filling a car’s gasoline tank; this approach gives a misleading impression of the impact of oil prices.
Affordability is also affected by growing wage disparity. Growing wage disparity tends to occur because of growing complexity and specialization. Globalization also contributes to wage disparity. These are other problems we encounter as we approach energy limits. Demand for commodities is to a significant extent determined by the wages of non-elite workers because there are so many of them. High wage workers tend to influence commodity prices less because their purchases are skewed toward a greater share of services, and toward the purchase of financial assets.
Because interest rates, debt, wages, and oil prices (and, in fact, commodity prices of all kinds) are linked, the system is much more complex than what most early modelers assumed was the case.
Hubbert’s Theory Underlies Many Mainstream Energy Beliefs
Today’s mainstream beliefs about our energy problems seem to be strongly influenced by Peak Oil theory. Peak Oil theory, in turn, is based on an analysis by geophysicist M. King Hubbert. This view does not consider interest rates, debt, or prices.
Figure 4. M. King Hubbert’s symmetric curve explaining the way he saw resources depleting from Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels, published in 1956.
In this view, the amount of any exhaustible resource that we can extract depends on the resources in the ground, plus the technology we have to extract these resources. In general, Hubbert expected an approximately symmetric curve of extraction, as illustrated in Figure 4. The peak is expected when about 50% of the resource is extracted. Hubbert believed that improved technology might allow more exhaustible resources to be extracted after peak, making the actual extraction pattern somewhat asymmetric, with a larger share of a resource, such as oil, being extracted after peak.
With this theory, we can expect to extract a considerable amount of resources in the future, even if the energy supply of a particular type starts to fall, because it is “past peak.” With the relatively slow decline rate shown in Figure 4, it should be possible to “stretch” supplies for some years, especially if technology continues to improve.
At some point, the standard view is that we will “run out” of energy supplies if we don’t make substitutions or conserve the use of these nonrenewable resources. Thus, an increase in efficiency is viewed as one part of the solution. Another part of the solution is viewed as substitution, such as with wind and solar energy.
In the mainstream view, the major influence on commodity prices is scarcity, not affordability. The expectation is that scarcity will cause oil prices will rise; as a result, expensive substitutes will become cost competitive. The higher prices will also encourage more conservation and more high-cost technologies. In theory, these can keep the economy operating for a very long time. The very inadequate models that economists have developed have encouraged these views.
The Usual Energy Model Is Overly Simple
Hubbert assumed that the amount of oil extracted would depend only upon the amount of resources available and available technologies. In fact, the amount of oil extracted depends on price, in part because price determines which technologies can be used. It also governs whether oil can be extracted in areas that are inherently expensive–for example, deep under the sea, or heavily polluted with some other material that must be removed at significant cost. Because of this, if oil prices are high, new technologies can be brought into play, and resources that are expensive to reach can be pursued.
If oil prices are lower than really needed, for example in the $40 to $80 per barrel range, the situation is more complex. The problem is that taxes on oil are important, especially for oil exporters. In this range, many producers can continue to produce, but their governments collect inadequate taxes. Their governments find it necessary to borrow money to maintain programs upon which the populations of the countries depend. Governments with inadequate tax revenue tend to get into more conflicts with other countries, such as is happening today with other Middle Eastern countries fighting with Qatar.
The situation of inadequate tax revenue is inherently unstable. It can eventually be expected to lead to the collapse of oil exporting countries.
Factors Underlying the Rise and Fall of Historical Oil Prices
The fundamental problem regarding the cost of resource extraction is that we tend to extract the cheapest-to-extract resources first. Thus, the cost of extracting many types of resources, including oil, tends to rise over time. Wages grow much more slowly.
Figure 5. Average per capita wages computed by dividing total “Wages and Salaries” as reported by US BEA by total US population, and adjusting to 2016 price level using CPI-Urban. Average inflation adjusted oil price is based primarily on Brent oil historical oil price as reported by BP, also adjusted by CPI-urban to 2016 price level.
This mismatch between wages and oil price tends to cause increasing affordability problems over time, even as we switch to cheaper fuels and increased efficiency. Part of the reason why affordability problems get worse has to do with our inability to keep reducing interest rates; at some point, they reach an irreducible minimum. Also, as I mentioned previously, there is a growing wage disparity problem caused by growing complexity and globalization. Those with low wages find themselves increasingly unable to afford goods such as homes and cars that require oil products in their construction and use.
Looking at Figure 5, we see two major price “humps.” The first of these is in the 1970-1998 period, and the second is in the 1999 to present period. In the first of these two periods, we often hear that the run up in oil prices was the result of an oil supply problem. This occurred because the US oil supply peaked in 1970, and the Arabs made the situation worse with an oil embargo.
In fact, I think that at least half of the problem in the 1970-1981 period may have been that wages were growing rapidly during this period. The rapid run up in wages allowed oil prices to increase in response to a fairly small oil shortage. Thus, the run up in prices was caused to a significant extent by greater demand, made possible by greater affordability. Note that timing of wage increases is slightly ahead of the timing of increases in CPI Urban. This suggests that wage growth tends to cause price inflation. It seems likely that globalization reduces the influence of US wages on oil prices, and thus on price inflation, in recent years.
Figure 6. Growth in US wages versus increase in CPI Urban. Wages are total “Wages and Salaries” from US Bureau of Economic Analysis. CPI-Urban is from US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The large increases in wage payments shown in Figure 6 were made possible by growing total population, by rapidly growing productivity, and by an increasing share of women being added to the workforce. Figure 6 shows that the big increases in wages stopped after interest rates were raised to a very high level in 1981.
Economists hope that rising oil prices will bring about new supply, substitution, and greater efficiency. In the 1970s and 1980s, oil prices did seem to come back down for precisely these reasons. I explain the situation in more detail in the Appendix. Rising inflation rates and interest rates were a problem during this period for insurance companies. One insurance company I worked for went bankrupt; another almost did.
We have not been able to achieve the same new supply–substitution–efficiency result in the 1999 to 2016 period, partly because whatever easy efficiency and substitution changes could inexpensively be made were made earlier, and partly because we are reaching diminishing returns with respect to extracting energy products, especially oil. Also, the wage disparity of workers is growing. Growing wage disparity makes debt growth increasingly ineffective in raising wages. Instead of debt growth funding more wages and more affordable goods for the working poor, the additional debt seems to go to the already rich.
The decreases in interest rates since 1981 have given the economy an almost continuous upward lift. This long-term decrease tends to get overlooked because it has gone on for such a long time. The major exception to the long-term decrease in interest rates since 1981 was the big increase by the Federal Reserve in target interest rates in the 2004-2006 period (shown indirectly in Figure 7).
Figure 7. Three-month treasury rates. Graph prepared by the St. Louis Fed.
The problem started when Alan Greenspan dropped target interest rates very low in the 2001-2004 period to stimulate the economy, and then raised them in the 2004-2006 period to cut back growth (Figure 7). This seems to have been one of the major causes of the Great Recession. The other major cause of the Great Recession was fact that oil prices rose far more rapidly than wages during the 2003-2008 period. More information is provided in the Appendix.
Where We Are Now
We have many leaders who do not seem to understand what our real problems are, and how successful programs have been to date in keeping the system from crashing. Way too much of their understanding has come from traditional models regarding “land, labor and capital,” “supply and demand,” and “higher prices bring substitution.” These models are not suitable for understanding how the economy, as a self-organized networked system, really works.
These leaders seem to believe that QE worldwide is no longer working well enough, so it should be removed. In addition, securities currently held by central banks should be sold. Also, the growth in debt should be slowed, because it is getting too high. Whether or not debt is too high, this strategy will lead to “Peak Economy.” As I explained in an earlier post, debt is what pulls an economy forward. It is the promise (which may or may not actually be kept) of future goods and services. These goods will be made with energy resources and other resources that we may or may not actually have in the future. Once we pare back our expectations, the system is likely to spiral downward.
It is not entirely clear the extent to which interest rates have already started to influence the economy. Long term interest rates, such as 10 year Treasuries, have not yet changed in yield (Exhibit 1). But short-term interest rates clearly have increased (Figure 7). An increase from 0% to 1% is a huge increase, if someone is using very short-term interest rates to fund highly levered investments.
Worldwide, the International Institute of Finance reported an increase in debt of $70 trillion, to $215 trillion between 2006 and 2016. This sounds like a huge increase, but it only amounts to a 4.0% increase per year during that period. It is doubtful this is enough to support the GDP growth the world needs, plus the increase in commodity prices demanded by diminishing returns.
There is evidence the economy is already headed downward. A recent report indicates that in the US, the smallest increase in consumer credit in 6 years took place in April 2017.
Another worrying area is auto loans. This is an area where interest rates have already begun to increase a bit, making monthly payments on cars higher.
Figure 8. Finance rate on 48-month new car loans through February 2017. Chart by St. Louis Fed.
The average finance rate in February 2017 was 4.52%, compared to an average finance rate of 4.00% in November 2015 (the low point). We don’t yet have information on what the increase would be to May 2017. A person would expect that if finance rates are following the interest rates on short to medium term US government securities, the finance rate would continue to rise. This interest rate rise would be one of the things that discounts provided by auto dealers would act to offset.
Because of the higher cost to the buyer of rising auto financing rates, a person would expect such a rise to adversely affect new auto sales. Higher interest rates would also affect lease prices and auto resale prices. We don’t yet know the extent to which higher interest rates are currently affecting auto sales, but the kinds of changes we are seeing are precisely the kinds of changes we would expect to see from higher interest rates. We have had a long history of falling interest rates (plus longer maturities) helping to prop up auto sales. Simply getting to the end of this cycle could be part of the problem.
Peak Economy is likely not very far away. We do not need to encourage it, by raising interest rates and selling securities held by the Federal Reserve. We badly need more people to understand the connection between interest rates and oil prices, and how important it is that interest rates not rise–in fact, more QE would be better.
Appendix – More Detail on Changes Affecting Oil Prices
(a) Between 1973 and 1981. Our oil problems started when US oil production began to decline in 1970, and Arab countries took advantage of our problems with an oil embargo. We immediately started work on extracting oil from other locations that we knew had oil available (Alaska, North Sea, and Mexico). Also, Japan was already making smaller cars. We started building smaller, more fuel-efficient cars in the US, too. We also began to substitute other fuels for oil in home heating and in the making of electricity.
(b) Between 1981 and 1998. In 1981, Paul Volker decided to force oil prices down by raising target interest rates to a very high level. He knew that such a high interest rate would lead to recession, which would reduce demand and thus prices. Also, earlier efforts at new oil supply and demand reduction approaches began to be effective. The new oil supply was somewhat higher priced than the pre-1970 oil. Falling interest rates made it possible for consumers to tolerate the somewhat higher oil prices required by the new higher priced oil.
(c) Between 1999 and 2008. Oil prices rose rapidly during this period, in large part because of rising demand. Globalization added huge demand for oil. Also, Alan Greenspan reduced target interest rates at about the time of the 2001 recession. (Target interest rates affect 3-month interest rates, shown in Figure 7.) At the same time, banks were encouraged to be more lenient in lending standards, and to offer loans based on the very favorable short-term interest rates available at that time. This combination of factors led to rapidly rising housing debt and much refinancing activity. All of this activity also added to oil demand.
Fortunately, these demand increases coincided with an increase in the cost of oil extraction. The world’s supply of “conventional oil” was becoming limited in supply, and began to decline in 2005. The higher demand raised prices, thus encouraging producers to pursue more expensive unconventional oil production.
(d) The 2008 Crash occurred after the Federal Reserve raised target interest rates in the 2004-2006 period, in an attempt to damp down rising food and energy prices. This interest rate rise made home buying more expensive. Oil prices were also increasing in the 2002-2008 period. The combination of rising interest rates and rising oil prices reduced demand for new homes and cars. Home prices fell, debt levels fell, and oil prices fell. Many people blamed the problems on loose mortgage underwriting standards, but the basic issue was falling affordability of oil, as oil prices rose and as higher interest rates took away the huge boost the economy previously had received. See my article, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis.
(e) 2009-2011 ramp up in prices was enabled by QE. This QE brought a broad range of interest rates to very low levels.
(f) 2011-2014. Oil prices gradually slid downward, because there was no longer enough upward “push” created by QE, since interest rates were no longer falling very much.
(g) Mid to late 2014 to Present. The US removed its QE, leading to a sharp reduction in carry trade in US dollars. Many currencies fell relative to the US dollar, making oil products less affordable in these currencies. As a result, oil prices fell to a level far below that needed by oil producers, especially oil exporters.
‘WORSE THAN 2007’:former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements, warns of looming wave of worldwide bankruptcies
http://www.businessinsider.com/worse-than-2007-top-banker-warns-of-looming-wave-of-worldwide-bankruptcies-2016-1
That quote from William White, chairman of the OECD’s review committee and former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements, made quite an impression on me, so refreshingly frank and clearly correct it was. I’ve also heard him talk about how the the global economy needs to be understood as a self-organising complex adaptive system – unusual for a ‘mainstream’ economist.
Today it is the CEO of LVMH talking sense, the final paragraph aside:
“A financial crisis could be just around the corner, according to the chief executive of LVMH, who has described the global economic outlook as “scary”.
“”For the economic climate, the present situation is…mid-term scary,” Bernard Arnault told CNBC Thursday.
“”I don’t think we will be able to globally avoid a crisis when I see the interest rates so low, when I see the amounts of money flowing into the world, when I see the stock prices which are much too high, I think a bubble is building and this bubble, one day, will explode.”
“Arnault, who is responsible for the world’s largest luxury goods company, couldn’t say whether the crash would be imminent or within the next few years, but he insisted that almost a decade on from the global financial crisis of 2008, one was due.
“”There has not been a big crisis for almost ten years now and since I’ve had a business I have seen crises more than every ten years, so be careful.”
“Longer term, however, Arnault said he was “optimistic”, pointing to advances in technology and innovation, which he said would stimulate the economy.”
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/15/be-careful-a-global-crisis-is-coming-says-lvmh-ceo.html
We are all Neapolitans.
Eventually…….KABOOM!
http://i.imgur.com/RufJRYl.gifv
Be easier to walk … no?
He fell off because he had to take his complexity machine with him, and be cool.
If he had just used his feet alone he would have been safe (er).
An idiot and his bike with clip-in/less pedals. Locked to his bike on a gnarly section. What a noob.
http://www.active.com/Assets/Cycling/Clipless.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/ydqCoj5.gifv
Actually I’m neither dumb nor deluded. I’m observing reality as it is happening right now.
Here’s another tidbit. My town is filling up with Muslims and blacks. No joke. But all the Muslims are professionals with families. All the blacks are employed. So far no terrorists, no criminals, etc.
It could be that we are getting the better ones. Long ago we already filled up with Chinese and Indians, all of them are well off.
Eventually I know this is going to be problematic, just like eventually I know things will break down. But so far they haven’t! Not even close.
And what are the news stories that you guys post – that rural America is collapsing! You guys are confirming your own incorrect analysis. Rural, redneck America is doing poorly. Metro, multicultural America is overflowing with abundance.
America, on average, is doing better than the rest of the world, right now. The world average is pretty bad, because currencies are still low relative to the dollar, and commodity prices are low for those making them.
That is consistent with the collapse process: the centres and favoured groups able to access credit thrive and it seems it can never end.
The rest are ground down and excluded (and blamed for their ill-luck and inevitable destiny as disposable citizens).
Apparent prosperity does not invalidate the validity of collapse. In fact, it may well confirm it.
I have friends who live in the bubble known as Princeton NJ…. they are adamant that the US is not in dire straits … that Obama fixed the unemployment problem … and just about everything else ….
Completely oblivious to what reality is for the 102 million who do not have work
They of course despise Trump… so they will blame him when it call caves in…. I can hear it now… in that short period just before BAU takes its last breath— the I told you so’s from the liberals…..
Even in America there are some ominous signs:
“General Motors will extend shutdowns at some of its factories this summer as sales slow and inventories fill up, according to the Wall Street Journal… Ford is also temporarily shutting down some plants. Automakers across the board are seeing some drops in demand.”
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/14/gm-extending-summer-factory-shutdown-as-car-sales-slow.html
Elon Musk reveals vision for a city on Mars
http://www.rawstory.com/2017/06/elon-musk-reveals-vision-for-a-city-on-mars/
I agree this is pretty crazy.
Whatever Elon! I am speachless.
“By talking about the SpaceX Mars architecture, I want to make Mars seem possible—make it seem as though it is something that we can do in our lifetime.” His use of the word “seem” tripped me up. Here he lets slip his real function. He’s a conjurer and a salesman. His job, above all else, is to push the Mars / Space Colonization narrative and convince the public to believe in it.
Yes, potholes in the road you could dive into, but Mars is our future.
At least we do not have to wear Elon badges, model our dress on him, attend marches and wave flags… Yet.
This is totalitarian manipulation of the public 21st- century style.
He’s a dreadful actor though, isn’t he? I suppose he could only fool people who are not used to real human interactions and who just live through their glowing screens, which seems to define many in the rising (or is that sinking) generation.
watch this video where a lady say neither vote Hillary clinton or Donald trump instead
she write god in election this called peak disillusion
https://youtu.be/TVUvahu3WP8?t=2m48s
btw this video shows coal power plants are shutting down in usa and
trump cant do nothing because at ofw we know the reasons
what are the reasons?
Collapse of Rural America Underway
CASH-STRAPPED TOWNS ARE UN-PAVING ROADS THEY CAN’T AFFORD TO FIX
https://www.wired.com/2016/07/cash-strapped-towns-un-paving-roads-cant-afford-fix/
INCARCERATION IS SKYROCKETING IN RURAL AMERICA
https://www.wired.com/story/why-incarceration-is-skyrocketing-in-rural-america/
Rural America Is the New ‘Inner City’
https://www.wsj.com/articles/rural-america-is-the-new-inner-city-1495817008
In Maine towns are opting out of incorporation and becoming unincorporated territories.
Old article but it’s been accelerating
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4697054
In the past we have had Permies on here discussing how they are making fuel from their gardens to power their pick up trucks post BAU…..
Not sure where they will be going — or how they plan to drive when the roads are giant pot holes…
Perhaps better to buy a couple of these? And some spare parts….
http://www.mohren-plavina.com/uploads/tx_templavoila/mountainbike11.jpg
Yes, and don’t forget to pimp up the metal steed with some hunting gear:
https://gearjunkie.com/legacy/images/14329.jpg
Fatbikes works fine on snow as well:
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/g0ti-SSMEog/maxresdefault.jpg
But yeah, perhaps nothing for the slacktivist couch potato. Not that they would survive long post BAU anyway.
Some experts still maintain that smart technology will be a gamechanger:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2017-06-13/next-energy-revolution
It’ interesting to see what they are not considering.
Sorry, even from the first preview lines it smells like their typical bullcrap propaganda piece..
The “smart technology” only means intensification of everything, including the negative or competing trends. For example, China has build just in few years time thousands of domestic fast rail on their own technology (formerly in part and older revision supplied by the West), now they are deploying it in wider Euroasia, East Africa, South America.. They are loaning money-credit in higher amounts than all the traditional “development programs” to these countries. Now, it’s not only trains, it’s everything, jets, highways, grid, pharma, tools, machinery, ..
Simply, the West is already redundant. The only thread hanging are nuclear weapons and the fact all the world’s upper classes (incl. those of 2.5-3rd world) “need” constant influx of luxury goods, albeit often no longer manufactured than still designed in the West.
You see, this is pretty thin wire to base an (“claimed superior”) existence on.
Yes, some argue we could be just on the very end of the energy affordability rope (and depletion threshold), so the relative advantage won’t have enough time to be played to the fullest effect. But some argue we can have more ~5-10yrs of mixed stagnation, meaning effective relative fall in some regions still. And then what? Acceptance of humiliation, nuclear war, instant global collapse, triage and antagonistic blocks of countries, .. ??
The US is still strong enough to be king among the poor, leader of the poor world, the exemplar of triage. It still has great institutions that might better be focusing on how to make something worthwhile out of nothing.
Those are not experts. That article is grade A 100% bullshit. Almost nothing in it is factual.
When you realize the scope of the predicament you stop reading everything “mainstream” including the so-called “high-end” publications such as foreignaffairs, the economist, etc….
Absolutely pointless…
They are expert DelusiSTANIS….
I remember reading the The Economist when I was a student, with….reverence. Holy writ. 🙂
Likewise…
And yes… it is all much ado about nothing…. there is only one issue worth exploring … along with others that are closely related to the main issue….
I look through the Economist for charts. There are occasionally things of interest.
A wise man once said..
http://izquotes.com/quotes-pictures/quote-believe-nothing-no-matter-where-you-read-it-or-who-said-it-even-if-i-have-said-it-unless-it-buddha-293284.jpg
Energy revolution….HaHaHa
Reality Check: Have the Greek bailouts worked?
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40288065
But seven years on, and many more billions of euros later, was this price worth paying, both from the point of view of Greece’s creditors and of the Greek people?
It is impossible to know what the situation would be like now had Greece not received the bailouts, but the consequences of receiving them have been painful.
Half of under-25s unemployed
For the Greek people, the bailouts and the austerity measures implemented with them have come at a huge cost.
Unemployment remains staggeringly high: 22.5% of Greeks were unemployed in March 2017. And almost half of people under the age of 25 were out of work
Those who do work, earn less. The minimum monthly wage at the beginning of the crisis was €863. It has now fallen to €684
Pensioners have been hit particularly hard. Pension changes since 2010 mean 43% of pensioners now live on less than €660 a month, according to the Greek government
Government spending on health was almost halved between 2010 and 2015, while the education budget was cut by 20%
Greece’s creditors, strongly influenced by Germany, demanded that Greece start spending less than it earned.
In 2016, for the first time, Greece achieved this. The surplus is small, at €1.3bn or 0.7% of GDP.
But this can hardly be seen as a success – the economy has shrunk and the overall debt pile is still going up, not down.
What to do about the debt is the main stumbling block between Greece’s creditors, the eurozone countries and the IMF.
Some countries, including Germany and the Netherlands, do not want to release any more money unless the IMF agrees to be part of the third rescue programme for Greece.
They think that, without the IMF, the EU institutions would be too soft on Greece in their demands for changes.
The IMF has so far refused to get involved because it says Greece’s debts are unsustainable and need restructuring.
http://www.politico.eu/article/why-greece-is-germanys-de-facto-colony/
Just last month, Tsipras pushed through cuts to pensions, a move once unthinkable.
From the beginning of the crisis, part of Germany’s strategy for dealing with Greece has been not to make the process too easy. Though German officials won’t say so publicly, making an example of Greece has always been part of their plan.
And it’s worked. Across Europe, Greece has become synonymous with economic incompetence. Officials in other European capitals refer to Athens like a wayward, unrepentant relative. No one wants to be like Greece.
“Greece is de facto a colony,” Polish Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski said in an interview with POLITICO, explaining his country’s resistance to joining the euro. “We don’t want to repeat this scenario.”
. One big reason he wants debt relief now is that it would allow the European Central Bank to include Greece in its bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing.
That would go a long way toward boosting investor confidence in Greece’s stability. But Greece won’t be eligible for the program as long as its debt burden isn’t deemed sustainable. And with the ECB’s program set to be wound down soon, Greece may never benefit.
Tsipras may yet try to resist a deal this week and take the matter to next week’s summit of European leaders in Brussels. That’s unlikely to make much difference.
Truth is, Europe stopped listening to Greece a long time ago
Where is the collapse? Can’t HEAR You? LOL
Good article quotes, the intent to perform some sort of rat lab tests through Greek population is beyond obvious now.
Nevertheless, still under reality check, ~ €700 a month is bucolic frivolous lifestyle compared to 2.5-3rd world standards. Obviously I get it, Greeks being relatively on the prolonged end of continental supply chains, makes many things a bit more expensive. On the other hand they have sunshine and mild winters.. to compensate..
The real question is why and for how long will be Greece allowed in the upper club. And since Turkey seems to definitely jumped the ship into the Alliance of the East, the Greeks will have to be supported by TPTB for a while longer as the flank/border state..
Depends on ones cost of living as far as the pension check is concerned.
Also, if you are one of the unlucky souls without a income….
By all accounts this is far worse for the Greeks than the Great Depression of the 1930s
Is Greece Worse Off Than the U.S. During the Great Depression?
By LIZ ALDERMAN, LARRY BUCHANAN, EDUARDO PORTER and KARL RUSSELL JULY 9, 2015
The economy has been in disarray. People have been out of work for years. The banks have been running out of money. It sounds a lot like the Great Depression in the United States. But it is Greece – and in some ways, the situation is worse.
“Greece is in its own Great Depression. But unlike the United States, it won’t be able to get back on its feet as quickly,” said Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. Greece “is shackled by onerous rules and regulations, an aging population and a dysfunctional domestic political system,” he added, and the country is “sharing important elements of sovereignty with its own creditors
Seems the aged and children suffer
The gift of food is precious in Greece, as it is estimated that as many as much as 25 percent of school children were underfed and suffering from hunger in 2015, according to the Prolepsis Institute of Preventive Medicine, Environmental and Occupational Health. The same study revealed that 60 percent of school children were suffering from food insecurity, meaning that they did not get enough food. The cause was determined as the study concluded that in 61 percent of the cases, one of the two parents were without income and 17 percent of the families had no income at all
Here’s detail about the Aged
http://www.ekathimerini.com/219126/article/ekathimerini/business/pensions-not-enough-to-cover-costs-of-medicines-bills-and-food
Three in every four pensioners already find themselves financially crippled, while upcoming cuts to pensions combined with bailout interventions in their allowances are expected to lead to a total reduction of pensioners’ incomes by up to 70 percent.
This is the conclusion of a survey conducted by the United Pensioners network, which paints a picture of pensioners today as poor, demoralized and disappointed. It adds that the pension most retirees receives doesn’t even cover the costs of spending on medications, bills and food.
The head of the network, Nikos Hatzopoulos, notes that “the reductions that pensioners’ incomes have suffered are huge. It’s not just the cuts, it’s also the [social security] contribution hikes, tax hikes and all the levies that have impoverished the veterans of the work force. Pensions corresponding to revenues withheld from a lifetime’s work have been turned into a mere gratuity through the bailout agreement regulations.”
The network’s data are quite staggering: Some 1.5 million pensioners with annual incomes up to 4,500 euros have sunk into poverty while new cuts to current pension will in 2019 have led to a total loss of income of 70 percent since Greece entered the bailout mechanism in 2010.
New main pensions will not exceed 655 euros per month for average-paid workers. At the same time supplementary pensions have been savaged, as the seven rounds of cuts inflicted on them average at 50 percent in total. There are pensioners whose original supplementary pensions came to 585.20 euros per month and today amount to just 138.80 euros. This signifies a reduction of 78 percent.
Of the total figure of 2.89 million pensioners, 2.15 million (or 74 percent) have to make ends meet on monthly pensions that do not exceed 1,000 euros.
http://bestanimations.com/Music/Instruments/Violins/playing-violin-animated-gif-8.gif
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/files/2016/03/19family.jpg
http://ceburyugaku.jp/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/p-4.jpg
https://image.jimcdn.com/app/cms/image/transf/dimension=820×10000:format=jpg/path/s9524a0afdc5b40b0/image/i41a0c57a30ee89c9/version/1484570037/smokey-mountain-the-slums-of-manila-philippines-sabrina-iovino-justonewayticket-com.jpg
And we must bear in mind that those pensions, which might seem not so bad to the superficial,are, as in Spain, supporting extended families, not going on the elderly alone.
In fact, pensions are the national welfare system.
Well, the Teutons have shown their true natures once more: heavy-handed and unimaginative, with a touch of self-righteous cruelty and profound mental imbalance.
As Goebbels said: ‘I don’t know why it is, but we always screw up, no one loves us.’
Funniest words in his diaries, and true.
“with a touch of self-righteous cruelty and profound mental imbalance”
Like the inquisition you mean?
In the words of Ellen Ripley from the classic movie(s) Alien(s):
“At least you don’t see them f*cking each other over for a godd@mn percentage.”
Poverty is poverty whatever the weather – and in mountainous Mediterranean lands, Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, etc, it is nasty enough to kill you in the winter, above all if you are underfed and poorly clothed.
And the summer sun in these regions is not the friend that palid Northerners like to imagine. It is your enemy.
All too many people now live in modern apartments which do not function well without air-conditioning.
I’d like to stick fatty Merkel in the Greek sun or up a mountain in winter.
I was in Crete and Mykonos in March — I would not consider it a mild climate… as it is often referred to….
‘worked’
Most definitely — the intent was not for Greece to recover — it was to keep Greece on life support — feed them just enough so that their banks did not collapse — because if they banks collapsed then that would set off another Lehman moment….
And if the Greek people are going to complain … they need to understand … without the support the country is getting from the CBs …. life would be like this
http://www.historicalstockphotos.com/images/xsmall/2310_people_in_poverty.jpg
Maybe it’s YOU that needs to understand! Fast Eddy the Almighty!
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/greece-poverty-bailout-debt-depression-
photographs-images-athens-economy-food-life-a7593356.html
Everyone is going through hard times – all of Greece is,” said Eva Agkisalaki, 61, a former teacher who volunteers there. Agkisalaki did not qualify for a pension because her contract ended when the retirement age was lifted to 67 under the bailout programme and she could not find work, she said. Part of her husband’s pension, cut to €600 from €980, also under reforms demanded by the international lenders, goes to her son and daughter’s families
It’s real easy for all of us here to say, “Ahh, they don’t have it bad”,
Suppose like the old saying, If your neighbor loses their job, it’s a recession, if you do it’s a depression.
Coming SOON to YOU. What you read about over in Greece.
Nope, what we (I) said previously is rather about the relative change.
Even poor Greeks are still very affluent comparatively to many regions of the world. But they have obviously suffered a noticeable hair cut in living standards in comparison with previous years, which was based on dubiously high levels to begin with.
So, lets focus on the above scenario, where pensioner couple (only one person eligible for ~ €600) have to even share the pittance to some degree with struggling (un/low employed) families of their own (grand-)children. Well, they can always sell their family home in the village to a German summer visitor (move families together in one place) and or force change on the gov playing stronger hard-ball, e.g. threatening to leave NATO, selling stakes in core companies to Asia etc. For some reason, they are not brave enough pursuing neither..
And there are many countries trapped like Greece, again we are back full circle into the debate of relative strength, the pecking order, power and control.
And again, some naively think, these relationships will magically end up in one instantaneous moment of econ crash, for everywhere across the board, uh ah lolz, pls..
World….can’t a Guy have some FUN? Let Fast Eddy blow his load instead of you!
Yo, Fast Eddy…looks like 300,000 in Athens can’t afford electric!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JgkoitD1Jl4
What’s you talking about? The Fast Eddy Challenge?
It’s not ALL about photo ops Eddie, No Sir
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JgkoitD1Jl4
That’s right….get it right for a change…
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Qw9oX-kZ_9k
Oh that is too bad….. for them.
An estimated 1.2 billion people – 16% of the global population – did not have access to electricity according to WEO-2016, 15 million fewer than reported in the previous year.
http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/resources/energydevelopment/energyaccessdatabase/
It actually amuses me when I see first world people (who are often smug) dropping into 3rd world living standards…. they seem to think they actually deserve to live better than those people… they believe that living large is an entitlement….
Where’s my violin…
http://bestanimations.com/Music/Instruments/Violins/playing-violin-animated-gif-2.gif
‘Fast Eddy the Almighty!’ Good stuff!
Far worse is headed my way — in the meantime if we need to chop off rotting limbs to keep BAU alive so I can LLL …. then all I an say is — too bad for them — and better them than me.
They are on the losing team. We are on the winning teams…. so far…..
They should be happy with the fact that they still have electricity — petrol — police – a government — police – running water — food ……
They could be this
http://www.technologystudent.com/pse_flsh/slum1.png
What more should we be doing? I reckon we are already doing more than enough. They failed — too bad. Weaklings would normally be left to die.
Well, if they are fed and don’t know anything else in life, who is to say it’s so bad?
They’ll get use to it…. humans are very adaptive — notice how they don’t even bother to protest… just a bit of whimpering once in a while… like beaten dogs
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wgVfxR-YhbI
Think you are All MiXeD up Fast Eddy…for these Things eek people it is definitely CoLlAPsE
No income, no electric, inadequate food. No employment prospects, being very old or young makes it worse…defenseless…you show pics of other people and places….seems that the surrounding make it worse?.can’t be seems it’s not so bad for them they are having babies!!!
YOU are confusing to different states…Collapse and Chaos.
When there is Chaos that’s when the SHTF..?got it, Fast Eddy!?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IvGzvP75_f8
That’s what the u mean kiddo…NEXT
Speaking of chaos…. I have no idea what you are trying to convey… perhaps it is a plea to help you escape from DelusiSTAN?
I would say the greeks are living large, at least compared with the portuguese.
In Portuga the minimum monthly wage is 557 €, and the median income is 650€. And 80% of the pensioners live with 365 €. Lucky greeks! They still have a long descent to reach our level of austerity (and we have an even longer one to reach the level of somalian people.)
The funny thing is that here nobody complains. The consumer confidence index is in its highest level of last 20 years! This is freaking hilarious.
Saw this Greek-American stand-up comedian last year at the Just for Laughs festival here in Montreal…hilarious guy…here’s his take on Greeks lol:
🙂 Grreat plan. Or, as they say, if you owe $ 100,000 to the bank, you have a problem, if you owe 1 billion, the bank as a problem.
All of the grocery stores in my area are full, all the time, overflowing with food. Just today I went and was just stunned, really. I don’t want all this abundance, I actually want a little hardship! My town has grown from some 200,000 people to 290,000. Everybody is driving everywhere, all the time. It actually makes me sick, I look forward to a world of less people, of less consumption.
Now, look, I’m not a bad person, but I myself am confused about this. Every single day for me is an exercise in cognitive dissonance. By all accounts this should not be happening, yet there it is. Nonstop growth, nonstop fuel consumption.
I just don’t know what to think. Where is the collapse?
Dolph
Just keep in mind:
‘The candle shines brightest just before it goes out.’
That’s the stage we are at.
Just like a star has the highest temperature just before it collapses:
“Lane reached the apparently paradoxical result that a star by losing heat and contracting actually grew hotter. A star shrinking under gravitation to half its linear size and remaining built on the same model, or “homologous” (i.e., the densities at two corresponding points at any two stages remaining the same fraction of the mean density) would be eight times as dense, and the internal pressures would be sixteen times as great as the overlying material is attracted four times as strongly and its weight is held up on only a quarter of the area. From the formula connecting temperature with pressure and density, given earlier in the chapter, it will be seen that the temperature in this example would be twice as great. By such reasoning, Lane concluded that as stars get smaller they grow hotter to withstand gravitation and resist collapse.” –Doig, Peter. An Outline of Stellar Astronomy. Hutchinson, 1947, p. 76.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-bOKsOveYD0
With just-in-time delivery things either work or the break. Right now it is working where you are. Nonstop growth is impossible. The industrial revolution is not very old (200 years) in terms of the age of modern humans (250000 years). And modern conveniences such as the electric grid and grocery stores, even less so.
So, lets say the modern grocery store is 70 years old. How old is that on a time scale we can understand – a human lifespan? If we say humans are 250000 years old and the modern grocery store has been around 70 years, and put that into the time scale of a typical lifespan (80 years), it turns out the modern grocery store is about 8 days old on the scale of a human lifetime. 8 days!
It is an 8 day old infant susceptible to all forms of maladies. He isn’t sick yet but any reasonable person would expect the 8 day old to get infections and fevers any day and cannot survive on his own yet. Despite that the entire town is relying on the 8 day old for survival.
It amazes me how much faith people have in something so untested, so new, so young, so vulnerable. And this applies not only to the grocery store but every link in the chain leading from the time the produce leaves the field until in is consumed by you (and even after is is flushed down the toilet). Our lives depend on an infantile and untested (on a time scale that matters) number of increasingly complex and fragile technologies.
Strangest analogy ever. At least it wasn’t a sports analogy.
It isn’t really an analogy it is putting things into perspective. We have a normalcy bias that needs correcting.
And when they break, suddenly you can do nothing at all: recently no less than 4 places I went to in town -banks and shops – about my daily business could not service me, or could only do so very partially, because of problems with their computerised systems.
They had no lower level of complexity to fall back on and function.
I was helpless to get my needs met. The staff could do nothing.
It was an instructional experience.
This is Silicon Valley UK, by the way…… 🙂
We’ve only had ready-meals since 1979, when pre-prepared chicken Kiev dinners arrived in Marks & Spencer. I sometimes wonder if circa 40 years of ultra-convenient eating represents the very pinnacle of the evolutionary process on this planet. If so, the Universal Intelligence might want to try a *tiny* bit harder next time round.
dolph you are as dumb as they come
Yes Dolph the grocery store was busy… the restaurants you go to are busy…. and you are ment..ally reta..rded.
Dolph, people are “living large” because the Fed is printing Trillions. When the dollar is davalued, this will change big time.
Why would that happen?
http://imgur.com/a/v0IIl
It probably would have worked sometimes in the past. But with today’s tech in the hands of the military and TPTB.
http://pop.h-cdn.co/assets/15/47/1447868775-a10-firing.gif
The Second Amendment serves no purpose.
Just been reviewing the 2017 BP statistical review. Primary energy consumption in the OECD countries was practically flat. The Middle East showed the largest rate of growth.
From a historical perspective looking back year over year this has to be about the worst growth seen.
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ExxonMobil
In early September 2008, just prior to the financial crisis, Exxon had recently reported revenues of $72 billion, with $11.1 billion in net operating cashflow.
For the first quarter of 2017 the company reported revenues of $61 billion and net operating cashflow of $8 billion.
Plus, ExxonMobil managed to add nearly $20 billion in debt to its balance sheet over that same period.
So over 8-years, Exxon is making less money and has more debt. Yet its stock price is actually HIGHER.
I guess Exxon’s stock price is higher because they stopped wasting money exploring for more oil. Hahahaha.
“For the first quarter of 2017 the company reported revenues of $61 billion and net operating cashflow of $8 billion.”
Making less but still making massive amounts of $’s. So how does that one stat bode for supposed collapse of the oil industry?
“Exxon Mobil Corp. said its quarterly profit dropped 60%, again plumbing a new low since the 1999 merger of Exxon and Mobil, as the oil giant remains racked by low energy prices. ”
I don’t think this is a good sign at all. What is going to happen to Exxon if oil prices do not rise?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/exxon-profit-and-revenue-slide-again-1469795286
I am not sure if those numbers are accurate or not. i copied it from an article I read that didn’t provide a link .
http://imgur.com/xciwJcl
I guess we are approaching another milestone.
The previous one was the depletion of even expensive domestic sources (e.g. oil and gas of the North Sea), followed by subsidy front-loaded renewabels build up. Plus a couple of foreign wars to capture and or deny access to ME/NA fossil sources to other players.
Now, this new incoming milestone as the above graph suggests would be a transition from cloaked subsidies to domestic energy sector into much more direct and in plain sight support. This could mean some combo of nationalization plus rationing. Some doomer-futurologists predict (mid term) massive can kicking effort via natgasing commercial and passenger fleets. I’m looking forward on which set of conditions this could be phased in, most likely candidates of approaches are market crash, war (domestic/foreign), climate change, pandemic, grid instability, ..)
It is my understanding that Exxon is getting killed on upstream — but making good money on the downstream side of its business
Even though Downstream operations are dwarfed by ExxonMobil’s Upstream division, the company is still by far the largest oil refiner on the planet, with 32 refineries throughout North America, Europe, Asia, the Pacific and the Middle East. Perhaps just as surprisingly, the typical consumer’s interaction with ExxonMobil- filling one’s tank at the local franchised retail outlet- represents only a small part of downstream activity. In addition to its automotive products, the company also makes industrial lubricants that literally grease the wheels of commerce across multiple sectors. While you might not ever be personally responsible for the upkeep of a wind turbine or mining shovel, the people who are will spend millions of dollars daily on Mobil-branded gear oils and more.
http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/041414/exxonmobils-massive-and-reliable-money-machine-xom-aapl-cvx.aspx#ixzz4k6Betd99
You’ve heard of the Chicago School of Economics?
Well… this is The Twilight Zone School of Economics. Often referred to as The New Normal.
Percentage of Young Americans Living With Parents Rises to 75-Year High
https://www.wsj.com/articles/percentage-of-young-americans-living-with-parents-rises-to-75-year-high-1482316203
Illinois economic growth is worse than during the Great Depression
https://www.illinoispolicy.org/illinois-economic-growth-is-worse-than-during-the-great-depression/
US shale oil alone cannot meet the world’s growing demand for crude, Chevron CEO warns
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/01/us-shale-cannot-meet-the-worlds-growing-oil-demand-chevron-ceo-warns.html
Shale oil is a retirement party. How can anyone think shale oil is of any use if it take 2500 shale oil wells to do what 60 conventional wells do? And those 2500 shale well will deplete in 3 to 5 years while the conventional well produces for decades. It is a no brainer.
Well, hold on now. This site is always claiming we are in de-growth/collapse, but if crude demand is growing, then isn’t the world economy growing? In any case, it certainly doesn’t point towards collapse.
If crude demand was growing wouldn’t the price go up?
Debt (gravity) grows faster than the GDP (thermal energy), so that the system accrues an ever deeper deficit of thermal energy and eventually collapses.
This growing deficit of thermal energy is what you mistake for demand. Thus, the growing “demand” for oil indicates that the system approaches its collapse.
The word “deficit” implies that mankind desperately needs oil but cannot pay an adequate price for it.
Tha is why a “deficit” should not be mistaken for a “demand”.
So, we’re using more and more debt and energy to get less and less energy out of the ground.
Love breaking it down……………..(thanks Logos)
but, but, Elon said…………………..
Debt certificates are called “bonds”. That is why financial debt is a form of binding energy, like the nuclear binding energy of a star:
“Each successive nuclear burning stage releases less energy than the previous stage, so the lifetime in each stage becomes progressively shorter. For a 20 MSun star:
Main sequence lifetime ~ 10 million years
Helium burning (3-α) ~ 1 million years
Carbon burning ~ 300 years
Oxygen burning ~ 2/3 year
Silicon burning ~ 2 days
The iron core’s collapse into a temporary neutron star ~ a few milliseconds
—Gene Smith’s Astronomy Tutorial. University of California, San Diego http://cass.ucsd.edu/public/tutorial/SN.html
The entire involution of a star is directed towards ever deeper deficit of thermal energy and ever higher thermal conductivity. The endpoint is a neutron star whose superfluid interior has an infinite thermal conductivity, so that portions of heat are literally teleported from one locus to another.
Mankind is currently a star at the stage of a red supergiant. After the red supergiant’s instantaneous collapse into an ultracompact neutron star, people will be able to teleport from one place of the Earth to another.
Thanks, maybe we should call you “Brad”???
The world economy is growing. It has been growing since the 2008 recession.
Please print this out — put it on a frame — and hang it on your wall.
You will know when the global economy stops growing — because the power will go off soon after that happens… and you will be eating boiled rats… then you will be dead
Crude demand is growing because the petroleum industry is consuming more to produce finished products. Per capita energy supply is falling.
Only through the piling up of huge quantities of unsustainable debt by the central banks.
https://dj0s31cxqi9ot.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Central-Bank-Balance-Sheet-Percentage-GDP.png?x65756
This should be obvious to anyone half aware of what’s been going these past 10 years or so, especially if they’ve made it onto a site like OFW. Are you trolling about here?
‘This site is always claiming we are in de-growth/collapse’
Global GDP is growing.
Global Oil Consumption Rate Grows
http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/150582/global_oil_consumption_rate_grows
Global debt (gravity) grows progressively faster that the global production of petroleum (thermal energy). The system tries to offset this disparity by using its ever more deficient thermal energy ever more synergetically.
Thermal energy provides buoyancy against the centripetal force of gravity. In a young system, low‑temperature heat is stored in multiple “buoyancy bags”, which are isolated from each other. In a mature (interindebted) system, high‑temperature heat is generally much more scarce and is synergetically shared between interconnected “buoyancy bags”, so that the system effectively has just a single “buoyancy bag”. A ship with a single “buoyancy bag” will lose its buoyancy instantaneously, not gradually. So, the resultant global network of “buoyancy bags” (the global economy) is fragile.
Think of how much diesel a shale drill rig uses. Millions of gallons of water and frack fluids trucked in and out. Each one is a small army consuming fuel.
The petroleum industry with all it auxiliary related support businesses is consuming more of its production then it is bringing to market. That’s why the price can’t rise. There is no productive growth.
I’m not sure everyone is seeing the significance of what the petroleum industry is doing. It’s created it’s own feedback loop. Since much of the cost of operation is its own product and the core business is living on debt the price only has downward pressure.
Isn’t it strange that no other country in the world is producing shale oil…. now we know there is shale oil in other countries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale_reserves
Given that shale is cheaper to produce than conventional you would assume the shale experts would be expanding across the planet….
Oh right… I see….
http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/blog170209e.gif
Canadian tight oil production decreased after 2014 due to less drilling activity
http://www.neb-one.gc.ca/nrg/ntgrtd/mrkt/snpsht/2017/06-03cndntghtlprdctn-eng.html
Cash-strapped Houston sells off $2M worth of city streets
http://www.chron.com/news/politics/houston/article/Cash-strapped-city-sells-some-streets-11213664.php?ipid=ntk
They should sell naming rights to streets…. surely some of the jack asses who buy custom auto plates would be willing to put up the dosh to take the naming rights of the streets they live on?
And for the larger roads and highways with a lot of traffic — those could be flogged off to corporations for large annual fees…
Coca Cola Drive…. McDonalds Way….. Monstanto Road…. this could bring massive amounts of cash.
Just noticed The Automatic Earth site has Goya’s painting of Saturn Devouring his Son. To any Christmas lovers that is it’s origin. Saturnalia the Roman festival. Saturn is the cannibal god of antiquity. In Chaldean canni equals priest and bal is lord or owner. So the priest who offered child sacrifice would eat a portion of the offering.
The decorations on the Christmas trees originally represented the heads of the children that were sacrificed.
The Yule log tradition is the rebirth of Tammuz the reincarnation of Nimrod. This is the origin of the rebirth of the Sun god. The log represents Nimrod who was cut down the Christmas tree represents Tammuz the reborn Nimrod. In the mix is Nimrods wife Semiramis who gave birth to Tammuz . This is the origin of the Trinity rooted in Babylonian religion.
Any of this sounding familiar yet?
The child god often pictured being held by the “mother” of god?
Good Catholic’s are taught to pray to Mary to seek her favor in appealing to a temperamental rathful childish god. The teaching of hellfire originates from these beliefs.
The mother of god is also associated as the wife of god. From here comes the origin of fertility goddesses. Semiramis being the first.
That brings us to all the Easter lovers. Astarte’ from whom the name Easter is derived is a fertility goddess. Hence the bunny and the egg.
Now back to Christmas any wonder about the date of Dec 25? Clearly not Jesus birthday which isn’t recorded in the Bible. Rather it was traditionally held as Nimrods birthday.
It is worth noting the Birthday celebrations are a chief concern among Satanist. Because they believe that each person is a god to themselves. Hence the birth of a god.
Any of this sounding familiar yet? “You will be like God knowing good and bad”.
So what’s the point?
Simply this the world has been subjected to a system of lies for thousands of years. The average person can not recognize truth so why expect them to. And why ridicule them when they don’t.
Truth can be found but you can’t be lazy you have to dig. Either there is a God or there isn’t. Either he created this earth or he didn’t. Either he sent his Son or he didn’t. Can’t be both.
Will it matter what you believe when this system implodes? I’ll leave that to you to decide.
Can’t “count your time” on posting here JT, listen to the “admonishments” of the “Governing Body” in Warwick.
And now for something completely scary
I’m not interested in time. I care about people. Life is precious and rare in the universe. Though it’s mysterious to some it’s really not a mystery. What we choose to believe demonstrates who we are and aren’t. But it remains our choice.
Well put JT, but I think the choice part becomes diluted by the power of group think (among other things too). People don’t care about origins of what they do, they do because everybody else does it.
Look at Thanksgiving in the US, YAY, genocide and theft of the indigenous people and their land, pass the drumstick.
JD-
So you are a loyal member of the Jehovahs Witnesses. Strictly speaking, the members of the one true faith believe you belong to an heretical sect and all the things you say about about people not following the truth apply to you, not the other way around;-)
I’m not going to waste anyone’s time here arguing about religion accept in the broadest of strokes, that being the situation we are in would have been the same with or without it as far as energy goes.
What I will argue is that what we believe demonstrates who we are, that is true to an extent but I don’t think in the sense you are using it here.
There are so many things that constrain a human being from knowing the truth that it is impossible to make a right judgment about their character. Parents, upbringing, culture, genetics, age, location, and energy availability all shape what we believe and how we perceive the truth.
Even the most likeminded people in a religious group can come to see things in very different ways and experience a schism over it. Each side claiming they are following the truth.
My point being that any judgment we pass on others for not believing what we do is in the realm of the subjective. What appears as a choice to us may appear as nothing of the kind to them. “To whom most is given”.
That being said, you are a brilliant guy JT, and I have gained great insight from your posts.
So complicated. And incestuous.
You see… this is why I worship the Easter Bunny, the Tooth Fairy … and Santa Claus.
I like the simplicity of — a tooth falls out — you put it under the pillow — and money appears….. you poke around the house… and lo and behold a chocolate bunny appears…. go to the department store and lie to Santa about being good all year… leave him some cookies and milk…. and you get stuff.
And best of all they never ask you to worship them wasting your Sunday morning … and they most definitely never ask for money …. and if you don’t believe in them — you dont go to hell… but you also don’t get the money chocolate or stuff.
What’s not to like?
Meanwhile in Norway: This year we are phasing out FM radio in favour of DAB. Why have less complexity when you can have more – the only way is up!
As a rule I don’t watch television, but I’ve seen parts of your country with the Norway Railcam mounted to the engine of a train. Very nice scenery!
“Slow TV” it’s been named – minute by minute, hour by hour real time. Apart from the train trip you refer to (7 hours) the programs include a passenger ship journey (7 days), fireplace (6 hours) and moving a flock of reindeer (7 days) – great TV if you ask me!
In the Middle Ages, all they could do to stimulate spending was legislate to make every man, say, wear a woolly hat on Sundays. This was law in England.
Today, force everyone to buy new devices by needlessly increasing complexity, even when those they have work perfectly well.
And ‘crappify’ those devices so they don’t last too long……
I’m not throwing my FM radios away, they will come in handy at a later time …
In case anyone thinks there is some coordination of efforts. Think again.
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/06/14/markets-blow-off-the-fed-until-next-financial-event/
The Fed simply doesn’t understand the are the defacto buyer of last resort. I don’t think they’ll get far this time likely the wheels come of the bus in September.
I look at this kinda like Brexit…. all talk… no action ……
One of the Fed’s mandates is to say things that inspire confidence that a recovery is underway… or a reset…. unwinding QE is not going to happen — because it would drive interest rates up…. a 12 year old would understand that…. so certainly the highly trained men and women at the Fed understand this…
As for these rate hikes… they are minuscule … as we are seeing they are having no impact…. again I think they are more symbolic than anything — they are always coupled with announcements indicating the economy is strengthening so time to hike (even though the economy is obviously worsening)…..
As I have suggested earlier —these slight bumps might be a message to speculators… in an attempt to tamp down the property bubbles around the world….
Notice a car park sold for USD650k in Hong Kong this week.
The lagging wages of Volkswagen Bratislava plant pose a major threat which is going to cause the first cessation of the plant’s production in its history:
http://195.46.72.16/free/jsp3/search/view/ViewerPure_en.jsp?Document=..%2F..%2FInput_text%2Fonline%2F17%2F06%2Ftbtbzaje09z.dat_160700.1%40Fondy&QueryText=
The quality of the workforce in Germany will probably be not so bright as the brighter demographic predictions:
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/04/population-ageing-and-immigration-germanys-demographic-question
U.S. gasoline demand falls for third consecutive month -EIA
U.S. gasoline demand fell year-over-year for the third consecutive month in March, according to federal data released Thursday, putting the country on track for its first year-over-year decline since 2012.
http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL1N1IX1GT
And back in Feb there was this:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-07/goldman-stunned-collapse-gasoline-demand-would-require-us-recessionGoldman Stunned By Collapse In Gasoline Demand: “This Would Require A US Recession”
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/01/17/20170119_DOE5_0.jpg
The cattle are broke.
Gas is still too expensive. At current prices it’s about double historical averages. It can’t drive growth so the demand is sliding with the economy.
When it hits $25.00 per barrel it’s going to get very interesting. The majors will be shuttering their business and people will be talking about how low prices will boost the economy. Then the next day they’ll realize the local gas station isn’t open because it didn’t receive its delivery. That’s ok I’ll just Uber to work. Oops the electric powered autonomous vehicles were only a dream. Well I’ll work from home today.
I figure it’ll be around that moment that the lights will go out.
So now standing in a pitch black informational fog. Armed only with previous memories of the MSM narrative what’s your chances?
It is also interesting to note that we are heading into what is historically, the peak summer driving season. It will be interesting to see if gasoline demand continues to decline.
Who Killed The Electric Car 2
Who Killed the Electric Car? 2 is a 2017 documentary film that explores the creation, limited commercialization, and subsequent destruction of the battery electric vehicle in the United States, specifically the Tesla.
In this follow up to the original, various MOREons complain that the gubbermints are conspiring to destroy Tesla by removing hand outs from taxpayers to subsidize rich men’s wet dreams.
Michael Moore aka the Fat Sloppy Pig King of MOREons has a cameo where he is seen screaming at politicians ‘you bastards need to vote to keep giving billions to Elon Musk because he is saving he world!’
What are these governments thinking? All Tesla needs is another ten years or so — and maybe 40 billion dollars of free money …. and they might even sell 5000 cars a month in America.
We are so close!!!
It’s Confirmed: Without Government Subsidies, Tesla Sales Implode
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/06/04/tesla%20denamrk_0.png
Hong Kong’s love affair with Tesla vehicles looks set to grind to a halt
https://qz.com/917491/hong-kongs-love-affair-with-tesla-tsla-vehicles-looks-set-to-grind-to-a-halt/
Gigafactories will save us!
Bank of America to lay off more workers
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-bank-of-america-layoffs-idUSKBN1960AD?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Top+News%29
And roll in AI. Software bankers enabled by our semiconductor overlords.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-banks-watson-idUSKCN10M0CV
https://digiday.com/marketing/banks-using-watson/
As Ghawar depletes, so will the middle class.
The fossil fueled jobs program is soon to be OVER!
If you are paying attention, you will see more and more stories positioned by the mainstream media steering the public away from a ‘Hard BREXIT’ and reminding people that, ‘the public mood has changed since the referendum,’ and that ‘maybe it’s easier for Britain to just stay in the EU.’
For anyone who bothered to read it at the time, the Conservative agenda for Britain to renegotiate its position with the EU was outlined in in February 2016 in David Cameron’s Best of Both Worlds document.
Viewed in this way, it’s very likely that Theresa May and the Tory ‘Leave’ has only been play-acting in order to co-opt the UK Independence (UKIP) movement and party platform, and ultimately destroy the UKIP Party – which they have done rather easily.
The rest is just a question of repeated delaying, and nudging by Westminster, until the public lose interest and the media can be reading from the same hymn sheet, altogether singing that old Tory spiritual tune, “The Best of Both Worlds”…
http://21stcenturywire.com/2017/06/14/reverse-brexit-puppet-macron-signals-to-may-that-uk-can-remain-in-the-eu/
Democracy…. hahahahahahahaha…. what a ridiculous notion!
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-y8HpjjzGqb4/WUBRTAS2UXI/AAAAAAAAvhw/hCKdYVmXO0sG01WFdD-JBJ4Ez-NY7poIwCLcBGAs/s640/Screenshot%2B2017-05-19%2Bat%2B10.57.14%2BAM.png
UN warns of Gaza’s ‘total collapse’ amid power crisis
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/06/warns-gaza-total-collapse-power-crisis 170614180853307.html
Now that would be a ‘Challenging’ situation
Gail have you read this https://static1.squarespace.com/static/585c3439be65942f022bbf9b/t/591a2e4be6f2e1c13df930c5/1494888038959/RethinkX+Report_051517.pdf
Executive Summary
We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential
disruptions of transportation in history. By 2030, within 10 years of
regulatory approval of autonomous vehicles (AVs), 95% of U.S. passenger
miles traveled will be served by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles
owned by fleets, not individuals, in a new business model we call “transportas-a-service”
(TaaS).
The TaaS disruption will have enormous implications
across the transportation and oil industries, decimating entire portions
of their value chains, causing oil demand and prices to plummet, and
destroying trillions of dollars in investor value — but also creating trillions of
dollars in new business opportunities, consumer surplus and GDP growth.
The disruption will be driven by economics. Using TaaS, the average
American family will save more than $5,600 per year in transportation costs,
equivalent to a wage raise of 10%. This will keep an additional $1 trillion
per year in Americans’ pockets by 2030, potentially generating the largest
infusion of consumer spending in history.
We have reached this conclusion through exhaustive analysis of data,
market, consumer and regulatory dynamics, using well-established cost
curves and assuming only existing technology. This report presents
overwhelming evidence that mainstream analysis is missing, yet again, the
speed, scope and impact of technology disruption. Unlike those analyses,
which produce linear and incremental forecasts, our modeling incorporates
systems dynamics, including feedback loops, network effects and market
forces, that better reflect the reality of fast-paced technology-adoption
S-curves.
These systems dynamics, unleashed as adoption of TaaS begins,
will create a virtuous cycle of decreasing costs and increasing quality of
service and convenience, which will in turn drive further adoption along an
exponential S-curve. Conversely, individual vehicle ownership, especially
of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, will enter a vicious cycle of
increasing costs, decreasing convenience and diminishing quality of service.
This is totally ridiculous…. what amazes me is that it looks like a whole lot of money and effort were wasting on that clap trap…. I won’t even bother to destroy it…. because a) it would be too easy and b) I am too busy laughing…
Here – check me out:
Hilarious!
I recall when the drop in oil price was meant to leave US consumers with a fantastic ‘surplus’ which they would, of course, straight away spend on all kinds of stuff. How did that prediction bear out?
So, ‘saving’ $5,000 a year or so as a consequence of TAAS is meant to do the same thing for the economy?
I suppose these people haven’t grasped the implications of consumer indebtedness? This would not be equivalent to a ‘pay-rise’!
And the clowns who wrote this crap… no doubt held very serious meetings discussing their findings in very somber voices… truly believing in their mission…. no doubts whatsoever.
This gives new meaning to the word DelusiSTANI. Ultra-DelusiSTANIS… Super DelusisTANIS
Imagine being a kid of one of these clowns…. totally indoctrinated with Koombaya from birth…
Every last ounce of logic and common sense hammered out of you by the age of 5… destined to bang the Koombaya drum and dance around the campfire….. yearning for a Tesla and a few solar panels….
Pity the children.
Isn’t amazing how completely ignorant people have become. Simple math skills are none existent. Unbelievable!!!!!!!!!!
Of course they probably thought the Carousel of Progress was a reality show.
I saw a Mish article where he commented that all trucking would be self-driving by 2022.
No doubt he also thinks we’ll be living on Mars by 2030
And people give this guy their money to manage.
Just had to look at the author and…..neeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeext!!!
Tony Seba…again here is his delusional video that I have already posted a couple of times here…
I like this quote from the executive summary:
“We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential
disruptions of transportation in history” – I agree. We will go from driving autos to walking. Quite the disruption I would say.
Haha Greg, I would go further…we will go from driving autos to being dead… 😉
At least they got one thing right…..
“In a nation that was proud of hard work, strong families, close-knit communities, and our faith in God, too many of us now tend to worship self-indulgence and consumption. Human identity is no longer defined by what one does, but by what one owns. But we’ve discovered that owning things and consuming things does not satisfy our longing for meaning.” Jimmy Carter
And the people voted for…… MORE!
And Jimmy became the laughing stock of America….
Yeast in a cup of sugar….. yeast in a cup of sugar….
God damn this is funny!
MORE MORE MORE MORE MORE!!! 🙂
Time to put this dog down…..
http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/human-extinction.jpg
The zoo is more orderly.
http://www.governing.com/topics/transportation-infrastructure/gov-nuclear-plant-closure.html
“There’s at least one thing worse than having a nuclear power plant in your town. That’s having your nuclear power plant shut down. “
Cuba Scrambles As Venezuela’s Oil Industry Collapses
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Cuba-Scrambles-As-Venezuelas-Oil-Industry-Collapses.html
“…the Cuban government has been combatting the stemmed fuel flow with regular energy rationing. In an attempt to avoid blackouts, the government has ordered cuts in electricity and fuel consumption to most state-run companies and entities (a huge pool in a communist country) by 50 percent, resulting in workers hours slashed and access to vehicles severely restricted. This April, they also began restricting sales of premium gas to government officials and diplomats.”
It seems that if Cuba decided to live large on their diminished supply of Venezuela oil, they’d die sooner.
I can believe this. I visited Cuba a couple of years ago. In fact, I wrote an article about Cuba, after I visited.https://ourfiniteworld.com/2015/05/26/cuba-figuring-out-pieces-of-the-puzzle-full-text/ As an island nation, they tend to use a lot of oil for electricity. They have been dependent on Venezuela for this. Cuba was doing badly in 2015. They were hoping increased US tourism would help.
One thing that is interesting is FE has become the defacto site moderator. Which is ok because he’s usually right. But as an observation that is highly unusual.
Perhaps it is a connecting of the dots. But in the end I think there are more views that could be expressed if readers dared to express them.
He posts excellent articles proving time and time again that the gig is almost up + he has the patience to take the time to destroy delusistanis (like GS from a few months back)….
FE has a way with words.
He certainly helped me loose any hope I had for the future faster than I otherwise would have.
That would be lose. Sheesh my typing sucks.
That would be a good thing Joe — I hope it encourages you to Drink More Beer NOW. 🙂
Lol, that and many other things;-)
OH, another drinking song???
Lol!
I agree with that — however I think there needs to be rules…
Someone can express their point of view — with the understanding that it is going to come under heavy scrutiny…. so they better be able to back up their position with facts and logic.
If they fail to do that — and when faced with facts and logic that destroy their position — continue to post their unsupported position making ITEO puke in his mouth….
Then surely we must agree —- the gloves need to come off….. the knives need to be sharpened….
The thing is…. 99% of the time these ‘new positions’ are not new at all — they generally involve old positions … EVs…. solar… wind … steady state….. etc…
http://www.kitchenknifeking.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/What-is-a-Whetstone.gif
I think nobody likes to agree with FE. When he arrived here, still under the nickname of Paul, I thought: What a nihilistic nietzschean guy, I suppose he’s painting the picture so black just to scare the people, or maybe for fun. But then I coldly considered the facts he presents and was forced to acknowledge that he is mostly right.
I am still not convinced that this is going to be an ELE, even with the nuclear fuel ponds, since there’s no guarantee that there will not be at least some 10,000 people capable of surviving tolerable levels of radiation, in the southern hemisphere. But that’s pretty much the only thing I can disagree with FE.
Also, I think prepping, in the right place and with a (large) bunch of like-minded people, makes all the sense and could, at least in theory, guarantee survival. Unfortunately, I don’t live in the right place and i don’t know any like-minded people…
My views of the situation have darkened by shades over the years …. to where I suspect they are now mostly in line with the hosts (other than the salvation deal…)
My intent is not to scare people … it is to help people who are making the same mistakes that I did…. to realize the futility of the situation.
No doubt realizing the futility of the situation is horrifying for many…. those people should avoid FW
If only there had been a Fast Eddy character on here years ago — that would have accelerated my learning curve many times over — now we have quite a number of Fast Eddy characters…. how lucky the newbies are.
http://eskipaper.com/images/dark-20.jpg
I think the highland tribes in Papua New Guinea and Irian Java, plus some other “primitive” peoples living in isolation of BAU will likely hear the news of the big crash and die off on their coconut wireless. after a few decades to centuries, they may be able to repopulate the Earth, like they did many thousands of year ago, while carefully avoiding hot spots with lethal radiation levels. of course, if the global warming already created continues to worsen, even they may not be able to survive the climate change. so the ELE may already to in place, and their is probably not a thing that we can do to stop it, unfortunately.
“FE has become the defacto site moderator”
Yes, “Moderator” or “Mind Control Post Adjustor”. If someone writes what he doesn’t agree with he goes after them until they either change their mind or quit posting or are tough enough to find a way to continue to post their opinions in spite of those attacks. My strategy, which works for me, is to be blind to every one of his posts, even though there are more than any other poster, and because I never read them I have no sense of being moderated/adjusted. You are also right, that the effect of what he does reduces the range of viewpoints (and because of that many have stopped posting like Reverse Engineer). I view it as an unfortunate situation on this site, but there is apparently no way to change it, so we just have to live with it if we want to continue to take part.
I regard Eddy as the top predator in our little ecosystem. Without him, the place would be absolutely overrun with varmints, vermin ,nuisances and pests of all sorts and Gail’s shotgun would never be able to cope with them. You wouldn’t want that on your conscience, now would you?
Bergen …. try to post a comment involving facts, logic… and common sense…. and you won’t get booted down the well..
This is a blog to discuss finite world issues. To agree upon things is not the goal here. Sure Fast Eddy heats up the debate and challenges every view, but if you can’t take the heat then you might not be confident enough in your arguments etc. and need to refine them some more. In this aspect, FE’s harsh line might raise the level of debate.
And he keeps the utopian green tech renewable sustainable crowd away from this great site!
“Door guard wanted. Must be cocksure and big mouthed.”
Sounds like e nice venue …
Isn’t that what all the punters who were turned away by the doorman say when they are barred entrance to an elite club?
Door guards on a venue around here used to bully people with “wrong foreign look”, don’t be that door guard.
This isn’t a disco….. facts and logic will get you in
In BP’s 2016 Statistical Review, it shows that Venezuela has 300 billion barrels of oil reserves… the largest on the planet. I find this quite interesting now that the country is in total collapse mode, suffering from hyperinflation and now resorting to eating dogs to stay alive when the country “supposedly” has the most oil reserves in the world.
Doesn’t anyone else find this a bit ODD??? Maybe it has something to do with the fact that they are sitting on a lot of HEAVY OIL RESERVES that aren’t really commercially viable. I would suggest that if Venezuela was sitting on 300 billion barrels of LIGHT SWEET ARABIAN STYLE CRUDE OIL RESERVES as the Middle East was blessed with, I highly doubt they would be eating dogs and suffering massive hyperinflation.
-steve
Yup
And it was dirt cheap to extract. Still there is the problem with other resources as well. But, if Venezuela did indeed have another Ghawar that would help extend the day of reckoning a bit more.
Venezuela is like a millionaire who can only access 10$ per day of his millions…rich on paper, but in all actuality quite poor…
There is a saying that communists would run out of sand on Sahara.
Must be why we need them currently for space travel.
And oil.
But kinda agree, not good with consumer stuff– but you need reliable space delivery vehicles, a 2000 mile pipeline, a dam, any large project, give them a call.
Using wikipedia as a reference for aggregate oil reserves left on the planet, and dividing said reserves by one year of global oil consumption, we’ve got 69 years left. Because said reserves are likely exaggerated and not fully recoverable at current pricing, global oil discoveries at nil puts humanity in the worst predicament ever. Ideology has little to do with what’s going on.
Exactly i1, this is a real physical problem, nothing to do with ideology…
he Chinese are building a heavy oil refinery in Venezuela, that will process huge amounts of that heavy oil.
The question is, can the government last that long? Goldman Sachs and the Chinese are betting they will.
Interesting, I don’t follow it closely, but though they were ‘months’ from collapse.
https://robertscribbler.com/
Multiple gigi factories?
We can always use Unicorn Farts for fuel:
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/c9/cd/52/c9cd5232feee65a5e8c6d7cf699827b5.jpg
Rainbow unicorn farts…. Feel the Power!
And Unicorn M&Ms — Delicious!
More likely skittles 🙂
What a loud Eco chamber
I am anti Eco anything … anti Green Groupie….
I am all about Burning More Coal and L(iving) L(arge) L(onger)
So what? Are you saying that what is discussed here is flawed? If so, how so?
“So what? Are you saying that what is discussed here is flawed? If so, how so?”
Well, one very loud “my view is the truth” voice completely outshouting all other isn’t exactly sound, is it?
Go ahead, give us an idea how we get out of this predicament…the floor is yours!
The thing is we still do NOT know how this all will pan out…especially Fast Eddy!
Evan Gail states the same….regarding the time frame, if it will be sudden or in stages or a domino regional. Up to now, sees to have surprise us all in this view.
Looks like BAU is a lot tuffer than ANYONE of us thought it could be.
I imagine we are going to have more entertainment and surprised ahead.
I tend to agree with now deceased Admiral Rickover when he stated in like words..more likely we will end up destroying ourselves with nuclear weapons.
Afraid we just can’t help it, it’s a “toy” and we are gonna use it for the easiest, quick permanent “fix”. Judging from the latest posturing in the world today, that’s not far off.
Also, the United States is not going down without a good brawl fight out.
Remember, our way of life is NOT negotiable, or for that matter…sustainable.
Now back to the Fast Eddy Show…
Show ME the MONEY
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=u3jCyRaOp8g
I suspect Gail is trying to sugar coat the situation … feed the troops a little bit of hopium….
This is what will happen:
It will keep growing … and then one day it will stop growing…. and soon after the electricity will go off…. globally … because this is a JIT system…. and we will die
Have you read this? If not you really need to read it. It is fundamental in terms of understanding how precarious BAU is…. BAU is like a fine tuned race horse…. but a slight tear in a tendon … and he’s over on his head and off to the glue factory
http://www.feasta.org/2012/06/17/trade-off-financial-system-supply-chain-cross-contagion-a-study-in-global-systemic-collapse/
http://l7.alamy.com/zooms/119785a039224be3b5eff2b9a4a5dc3a/horse-and-jockey-having-an-accident-during-a-race-liverpool-uk-cnbna8.jpg
“Go ahead, give us an idea how we get out of this predicament…the floor is yours!”
Did I ever give the impression that we can get out?
I just call for less amounts of cocksure and loud because *nobody knows*, OK?
Nobody knows? Really???
We are about to lose our energy supply … the thing that feeds 7.5 B of us… the thing that keeps spent fuel ponds cool… the thing that provides us with medicines and hospitals…. the thing that keeps the lights on … homes warm/cool…
That we know.
And anyone with an IQ over 80 can work out that that means starvation … suffering … death …disease… rape…. murder…. and quite likely an extinction event.
The only thing we don’t know is what triggers the end game. That is the big mystery that keeps us coming back to FW on a daily basis.
BTW – where is Norman? Can some BAU Liters post a few comments… that should wake him up….
Did someone call my name?
Repug reality moment:
UPDATE: House Natural Resources Committee says the hearing on @RepJeffDuncan’s bill to deregulate gun silencers has been canceled
If I was them, I would stop wearing RED baseball uniforms at charity softball games.
Just saying….
More amazing analysis of the parlous state of the oil industry and wider eCONomy. Read it, and puke…
WARNING: The Global Oil & Gas Industry Is Cannibalizing Itself To Stay Alive
While the Mainstream media continues to put out hype that technology will bring on abundant energy supplies for the foreseeable future, the global oil and gas industry is actually cannibalizing itself just to stay alive. Increased finance costs, falling capital expenditures and the downgrade of oil reserves are the factors, like flesh-eating bacteria, that are decimating the once great oil and gas industry.
This is all due to the falling EROI – Energy Returned On Investment in oil and gas industry. Unfortunately, most of the public and energy analysts still don’t understand how the Falling EROI is gutting the entire system. They don’t see it because the world has become so complex, they are unable to connect-the-dots. However, if we look past all the over-specialized data and analysis, we can see how bad things are getting in the global oil and gas industry.
https://dj0s31cxqi9ot.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Global-Oil-Consumption-2016-vs-Discoveries.png?x65756
Meanwhile in Norway: Ordinary people I know just bought a house for $ 1.4 million *and* a holiday house in Italy (cost unknown). A substantial part of the money is borrowed of course, but they think it’s all upwards from here; no problem. Another ordinary couple I know have bough a small vine farm in Italy. They plan to sell everything in Norway, move to Italy and make a living from making wine. They are office workers, they don’t know how to make wine, she hates garden work, they don’t speak Italian; no problem.
Like the couple planning going to Italy to grow wine….work?..come now…just hire some of refugees and a small stipend, room and board…labor problem solved!
Speak Italian? Just use your hands when expressing yourself.
It sounds like a nice dream, just like living with Helen and Scott Nearing sapping Maple syrup in Vermont!
Thanks for the post, nice to read of folks chasing their BLISS
Buying property in a Latin country, oh so dangerous…..
And one thinks of all the British ex-pats who have been left unable to sell their lovely houses in rural France.
It’s possible to get a ‘bargain’ there now, but for a very good reason.
But how can Norwegians be very confident, as the Norwegian fields deplete? Has too long a run of prosperity clouded peoples judgement?
Most Norwegians don’t know that our oil production has peaked and gone into irreversible decline almost 20 years ago. That also goes for most people in the oil business.
You are probably right regarding too long run of prosperity. There are basically no poverty, and even if you just have a job at a grocery store you can live a pretty comfortable life. I guess Gail’s arguments about non-elites getting decent wages has good support in “the old country”. Very little inequality here, both nominally, socially and culturally.
That goes for all the nordic countries I guess. Good places to be for the coming years of turmoil.
How absurd! Its one thing if you wanted to write a book saying supply will meet demand and everything will be okay. Its totally another to argue we are going to be FLOODED with oil.
http://imgur.com/EuSmHQ8
So many books, so much BS ,,,
Lynch is the perfect contrarian indicator.
Leonardo Maugeri is in the same category as Daniel Yergin….excellent oil analysts (sarc!)
Yergin is to peak oil as Krugman is to QE as Musk is to EVs and solar… all have been invited onto Team End of the World … and each has an important role in keeping the cattle calm….
Donuts, every one of them. Well paid donuts, but donuts nonetheless. Did you know that Yergin was a peak oiler in his college days? But oil follows no rule but the one to make money…
Actually I’m not deluded, I’m just thinking in a different framework than you guys.
You guys are still stuck in capitalism vs. socialism, growth vs. collapse mode. As such, you haven’t been able to see where all of this is actually headed. Namely, right back to feudalism.
Look around you, we are in many ways already there. What is society now other than a great mass of serfs lumbering to their dead end jobs, and a handful of rich people networking and passing money to each other?
The average American, right now, in the year 2017, will gladly labor for hours and days on end, as long he gets his beer and football game and hollywood movie one day of the week. He won’t raise a peep about collapse, about inequality, about the wars, about how he is a slave to his mortgage, about how if he ever needs healthcare it will bankrupt him and send his family into poverty. He will willingly break his back for 30 years and end up overdosing on oxycontin. Again, he willingly does this. Wrap your head around that one.
I understand America better than you do. You think Americans are intelligent, democratic, yeoman citizens dedicated to the good of the country and the world. I know that that they are debt slaves, addicts, and celebrity worshippers. And that’s exactly what will prevent collapse! The Mexicans are even more deluded. America couldn’t have asked for anything better…a whole country whose population is so poor, they are ready to provide an infinite and always compliant workforce, ready to toil without pay or benefits, just to escape the heat and misery of Mexico. Even China has nothing like this, they have to brutally suppress their workers because they haven’t accomplished the neofeudal model.
America is modern feudalism perfected. It is the dream of every rich tyrant in human history: an endless population of willing slaves.
“You think Americans are intelligent, democratic, yeoman citizens dedicated to the good of the country and the world.” HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA…yeah Donnie I’m sure most here on OFW have that opinion (sarc!)
Dolph…. why?
Yep, Dolph, noble yeomen went out c. 1550…….
The physical degradation of people today is also disgusting and lamentable.
I have wide-ranging tastes, but I do not much like women with single buttocks wider than my whole torso, a sight which is becoming all too frequent around here!
I suspect I would end it all if I were to visit a Walmart…….but the UK is hurrying to catch up. Spanish getting fatter, too.
“Worldwide, the International Institute of Finance reported an increase in debt of $70 trillion, to $215 trillion between 2006 and 2016. This sounds like a huge increase, but it only amounts to a 4.0% increase per year during that period.”
– LOL!!! Sorry, you could be an actuary by background, BUT, nevertheless this is nonsense, this is BASIC math – third grade…
Not sure what you mean but 145T$ to 215T$ in 10 years comes out to 4% per year…
What was that? It is 4%. No one has any competence.
He is probably dyslexic and is seeing “from 70T$” instead of “of 70T$” 🙂
They done done did it,!
shrinking the size of its balance sheet.
The basic idea will be that the Fed will stop reinvesting the principal of securities when they mature.
Put another way, when a 10-year Treasury on the Fed’s books comes due, the money it gets back from that investment will not be used to go out and buy another Treasury.
The slowing of reinvestment will be phased in over time. To start, the Fed will only invest money back into the market if it gets back more than $6 billion in principal returned a month. From there, the “cap” will increase by $6 billion every three months over the course of a year until it hits $30 billion a month.
The Fed said in the end it will have a balance sheet “appreciably below that seen in recent years but larger than before the financial crisis” because banks need for higher reserves at the Fed. This is a pretty broad end point given that the Fed held roughly $800 billion in assets before the financial crisis and $4.5 trillion now.
Here’s the full plan via the Fed:
All participants agreed to augment the Committee’s Policy Normalization Principles and Plans by providing the following additional details regarding the approach the FOMC intends to use to reduce the Federal Reserve
http://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-rate-hike-plan-to-unwind-45-trillion-balance-sheet-2017-6
The increase in the short-term rate by a quarter-point to a still-low range of 1 percent to 1.25 percent could lead to higher borrowing costs for consumers and businesses and slightly better returns for savers.
The central bank chose to raise rates again despite an economic slowdown at the start of 2017, which it predicts will prove temporary.
o one expects the Fed’s rate hikes to turn aggressive. If nothing else, the chronically low inflation and the political fights and uncertainty in Washington — over investigations into Russia’s ties to President Donald Trump’s campaign, health care legislation, tax-cut plans and about whether Congress will raise the nation’s borrowing limit and pass a new budget — could lead the Fed to raise rates more slowly than it otherwise would.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-federal-reserve-raises-interest-rate-20170614-story.html
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017/06/14/federal-reserve-raises-rates-plans-to-reduce-balance-sheet-this-year.html
Don’t need to be coy, Roy…just set yourself free….
The Shooters FB profile. He was a Bernie supporter!
https://www.facebook.com/jthodgkinson
As we’ve said as the system progressively shuts in people will think it’s a Social, Political, Religious issue.
No one can reasonably argue that the Republican congressmen shot today didn’t deserve it. They absolutely did. They created this situation of unparalleled division. They’re trying to destroy society to line their own pockets.
We are certainly getting our money’s worth out of the End of the World — how incredibly entertaining!
And to think… we ain’t seen nothing yet
The Fat Lady is primed and ready!
I have a busy schedule on the End of the World Tour in the coming few months…. I need Ben to step in and help BAU make it until late September minimum.
Rather amusing … I am unloading a hunk of land to ensure I can fund the Tour and other investments in frivolous extravagances and ‘experiences’ — and because there is no point in retaining ownership of this ‘investment’ because the future is now… it’s either now or never….
I’ve got a buyer — he’s haggling over a few points —- and I am saying not a problem — here’s the account — let me know when you’ve deposited the funds… he drones on and on about details (I take the phone from my ear and entertain Madame Fast with various funny faces …)
http://appamatix.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/a10f3823a974b74e29b983e483add74e.jpg
Finally… I say look…. I don’t care about anything else…. show me the money! show me the money! show me the money! Here’s the lawyers number —- he’ll make it all happen… just email me when the numbers are in the account. Gotta go…. no no — no more discussing …. I gotta run … nope – not interested in that…. look forward to your email — cya….
This is one of the massive advantages of KNOWING….. I know – and he does not — I know that I am selling him a piece of land that is worthless. It does have a very nice view … but I may as well be selling him a hectare of swampland on Mars….or a hunk of the F789ing Gobi Desert…..
He on the other hand no doubt thinks I am a sucker because I am not haggling much on the price…. in fact I am selling a little under market price — in the interest of just getting this done before the SHTF…. I am all about NOW…. my strategy is to sell NOW… later is no good….
He probably thinks I am a MOREon.
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/01/35/2b/01352b00e1914879039530fb36f1373a.jpg
Well said FE…like I have said before, the way we profit from this “inside information” that we have acquired is living in the NOW…and yes it’s always tricky to put a timeline on such a big event, likely the biggest this biosphere has ever seen (surely dwarfing the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs (at least we little hamsters survived to become the lean (actually fat now for many across the world)-mean-eating machines that we are!!))…but we are not off by decades, That’s.For.Sure…a few years at best….
Here is Fast Eddy when he bought the place he’s selling….so FUNNY
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EIvjz2X-Kok
mmmmm been thinking about doing the same with some of mine….
Just sold my home as well, renting a house instead. Now me and my family can live decently off the “excess equity” for the next couple of years.
It’s really unreasonable for the public to expect truth from politicians. The public loves being lied to.
“Sure if you vote for me you can retire at 45 with two pensions”
Please the public is just as guilty.
The repugs are lucky a skilled and competent shooter was not involved.
It would of been a bloodbath.
No one can reasonably argue that the Republican congressmen shot today didn’t deserve it. They absolutely did. They created this situation of unparalleled division. They’re trying to destroy society to line their own pockets.
Arguably, we all get what we deserve according to the dictates of karma. Nevertheless, it seems a bit harsh blaming this hit on Republican congressmen and giving everyone else a free pass. Do you always blame the victims of a terror attack on the basis that their demographic created the situation leading to their victimhood, or are Republican congressmen a special group uniquely deserving to be shot? Do you think Republicans deserve further attacks of this nature (after all, the recent attack only affected a minority of their congressmen), and if the same sort of things start happening to Democrats, are you going to display an equal measure of schadenfreude at that?
It takes more than one side or one group to create a nationwide division of this magnitude. Also the current division is hardly unparalleled. The ones Americans created in the 1770s~80s and in the 1850s~60s were real doozies. And the 1930s~40s one between the haves and have-nots was also deeper than it is today. What’s different today is the presence of powerful media (including antisocial media) that exert a constant negative influence on everyone, a general lack of economic, psychological and physical security, and the ubiquity of junk food, dangerous mind-altering drugs, loud-mouthed pushy opinions, and mobs of people protesting this, that or the other or else singing USA! USA! USA! USA!
Personally I blame Dr. Spock for telling mothers to spare the rod……
I agree with you Tim. We can’t go blaming the victim. We probably need to be blaming growing complexity, rising wage disparity, and falling energy per capita.
Better watch out who you p-iss off:
Crows, rooks and ravens have the brains to lead an animal revolution: what’s more, they can eat the casualties!
Ever looked into a rook’s eyes?
They have quite an expression: humans have mostly been only rotting carrion to them, after all our battles.
We are a feast in waiting……
Here it comes capitulation.
How the mighty have fallen.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-14/wtirbob-tumble-after-unexpected-gasoline-inventory-build-production-rise
“in fact, more QE would be better.”
Well, one way or another, I keep thinking of the analogy of addiction — eventually, continuing results in something like liver failure.
Or delusional parasitosis.
The analogy I use is Antibiotics…work a treat for a while then the feedback loops kick in and before you know it…down to very few options!
http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/World-Oil-Supply-5.jpg
The Twist and Spin Machine
MARKET INSIDER
Fed is expected to hike interest rates Wednesday, but inflation is the wild card for markets
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by a quarter point Wednesday, but it will have to answer questions about how it can hike in a period of weakening inflation.
CPI inflation data is released at 8:30 a.m. ET, and it could show inflation remains at a depressed level.
Weak inflation has created doubts in the market that the Fed can hike two more times this year.
Patti Domm
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/13/fed-is-expected-to-hike-interest-rates-wednesday-but-inflation-is-the-wild-card-for-markets.html
Weak INFLATION??
We shall see what happens, maybe raise it to lower them later….that’s the plan Stan
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0H5chfbcWtY
“We shall see what happens, maybe raise it to lower them later”
I asked about that earlier, here’s Gail’s response
Gail Tverberg says:
June 12, 2017 at 4:04 pm
Part of their problem is that they are running out of securities to buy. No one would consider selling them high-coupon bonds, for example, and they have already bought up a significant share of the low coupon bonds.
If the CBs actually reverse course, I am afraid it would be too late before they figure out that they were very wrong.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-14/hong-kong-billionaire-kwok-loses-appeal-in-corruption-case
https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i1QWw3ASD9aM/v0/1000x-1.jpg
What an odd looking man….
http://www.doctormacro.com/Images/Marx%20Brothers/Annex/Annex%20-%20Marx%20Brothers_14.jpg
Maybe a wig?
I hope he has, at least, acquired a decent-looking mistress with all that money!
https://www.pinterest.com/pin/385480049330472037/