Once upon a time, we worried about oil and other energy. Now, a song from 1930 seems to be appropriate:
Today, we have a surplus of oil, which we are trying to use up. That never happened before, or did it? Well, actually, it did, back around 1930. As most of us remember, that was not a pleasant time. It was during the Great Depression.
Figure 1. US ending stocks of crude oil, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Amounts will include crude oil in pipelines and in “tank farms,” awaiting processing. Businesses normally do not hold more crude oil than they need in the immediate future, because holding this excess inventory has a cost involved. Figure produced by EIA. Amounts through early 2016.
A surplus of a major energy commodity is a sign of economic illness; the economy is not balancing itself correctly. Energy supplies are available for use, but the economy is not adequately utilizing them. It is a sign that something is seriously wrong in the economy–perhaps too much income disparity.
Figure 2. U. S. Income Shares of Top 1% and Top 0.1%, Wikipedia exhibit by Piketty and Saez.
If incomes are relatively equal, it is possible for even the poorest citizens of the economy to be able to buy necessary goods and services. Things like food, homes, and transportation become affordable by all. It is easy for “Demand” and “Supply” to balance out, because a very large share of the population has incomes that are adequate to buy the goods and services created by the economy.
It is when we have too much income and wage disparity that we have gluts of oil and food supplies. Food gluts happened in the 1930s and are happening again now. We lose sight of the extent to which the economy can actually absorb rising quantities of commodities of many types, if they are inexpensive, compared to wages. The word “Demand” might better be replaced by the term “Quantity Affordable.” Top wage earners can always afford goods and services for their families; the question is whether earners lower in the wage hierarchy can. In today’s world, some of these low-wage earners are in India and Africa, or have no employment at all.
What is Going Right, As We Enter 2018?
[1] The stock market keeps rising.
The stock market keeps rising, month after month. Volatility is very low. In fact, the growth in the stock market looks rigged. A recent Seeking Alpha article notes that in 2017, the S&P 500 showed positive returns for all 12 months of the year, something that has never happened before in the last 90 years.
Very long runs of rising stock prices are not necessarily a good sign. According to the same article, the S&P 500 rose in 22 of 23 months between April 1935 and February 1937, in response to government spending aimed at jumpstarting the economy. By late 1937, the economy was again back in recession. The market experienced a severe correction that it would not fully recover from until after World War II.
The year 2006 was another notable year for stock market rise, with increases in 11 out of 12 months. According to the article,
Equity markets rallied amidst a volatility void in the lead-up to the Great Recession. Markets would make new all-time highs in late 2007 before collapsing in 2008, marking the worst annual returns (-37%) since the aforementioned infamous 1937 correction.
So while the stock market consistently rising looks like a good sign, it is not necessarily a good sign for market performance 6 to 24 months later. It could simply represent a bubble forming, which will later pop.
[2] Oil and other commodity prices are recently somewhat higher.
Recently, oil prices have been too low for most producers. Now, things are looking up. While prices still aren’t at an adequate level, they are somewhat higher. This gives producers (and lenders) hope that prices will eventually rise sufficiently that oil companies can make an adequate profit, and governments of oil exporters can collect adequate taxes to keep their economies operating.
Figure 3. Monthly average spot Brent oil prices, through December 2017, based on EIA data.
A major reason for the recent upward trend in commodity prices seems to be a shift in currency relativities for Emerging Markets.
Figure 4. Figure from Financial Times showing currency relativities based on the MSCI Emerging Market currency index.
While the currency relativities for emerging markets had fallen quite low when commodity prices first dropped, they have now made up most of their lost ground. This makes commodities more affordable in Emerging Market countries, and allows them to do more manufacturing, thus stimulating the world economy.
Of course, if China runs into debt problems, or if India runs into problems of some sort, or if oil prices rise further than they have to date, the run-up in currency relativities might run right back down again.
[3] US tax cuts create a bubble of wealth for corporations and the 1%.
With low commodity prices, returns have been far too low for many corporations involved with commodity production. “Fixing” the tax law will help these corporations continue to operate, even if commodity prices remain low, because taxes will be lower. These lower tax rates are important in helping commodity producers to avoid collapsing as a result of low commodity prices.
The problem that occurs is that the change in tax law opens up all kinds of opportunities for companies to improve their tax situation, either by changing the form of the corporation, or by merging with another company with a suitable tax situation, allowing the combined taxes to be minimized. See this recent Michael Hudson video for a discussion of some of the issues involved. This link is to a related Hudson video.
Groups evaluating the expected impact of the proposed tax law did their evaluations as if corporate structure would remain unchanged. We know that tax accountants will help companies quickly make changes to maximize the benefit of the new tax law. This is likely to mean that US governmental debt will need to rise much more than most forecasts have predicted.
In a way, this is a “good” impact, because more debt helps keep commodity prices and production to rise, and thus helps keep the economy from collapsing. But it does raise the question of how long, and by how much, governmental debt can rise. Will the addition of all of this new debt raise interest rates even above other planned interest rate increases?
[4] We have been experiencing artificially low oil prices since 2013. This helps the economic growth to be higher than it otherwise would be.
In February 2014, I published an article documenting that back in 2013, oil prices were too low for oil producers. If a person looks at Figure 3, oil prices were over $100 per barrel that year. Clearly, oil prices have been much too low for producers since that time.
Unfortunately, it looks like these artificially low oil prices may be coming to an end, simply because the “glut” of oil that developed is gradually being reduced. Figure 5 shows the timing of the recent glut of oil. It seems to have started early in 2014.
Figure 5. US Stocks of crude oil and petroleum products (including Strategic Petroleum Reserve), based on EIA data.
If we look at the combination of oil prices and amount of oil in storage, a person can make a rough estimate of how this glut of oil might disappear. Quite a bit of it may be gone by the end of 2018 (Figure 6).
Figure 6. Figure showing US oil stocks (crude plus oil products) together with the corresponding oil prices. Rough guess of how balance might disappear and future prices by author.
Of course, one of the big issues is that consumers cannot really afford high-priced oil products. If consumers could not afford $100+ prices back in 2013, how would it be possible for oil prices to rise to something like $97 per barrel by the end of 2018?
I am not certain that oil prices can really rise this high, or that they can stay at this level very long. Certainly, we cannot expect oil prices to rise to the level they did in July 2008, without recession causing oil prices to crash back down.
What the Economy Needs Is Rising Energy Per Capita
I have published energy per capita graphs in the past. Flat spots tend to represent problem periods.
Figure 7. World per Capita Energy Consumption with two circles relating to flat consumption. World Energy Consumption by Source, based on Vaclav Smil estimates from Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects (Appendix) together with BP Statistical Data for 1965 and subsequent, divided by population estimates by Angus Maddison.
The 1920-1940 flat period came shortly after the United Kingdom reached Peak Coal in 1913.
Figure 8. United Kingdom coal production since 1855, in figure by David Strahan. First published in New Scientist, 17 January 2008.
In fact, the UK invaded Mesopotamia (Iraq) in 1914, to protect its oil interests. The UK wasn’t stupid; it knew that if it didn’t have sufficient coal, it would need oil, instead.
There were many other disturbing events during this period, including World War I, the 1918 flu pandemic, the Great Depression, and World War II. If there are not enough energy resources to go around, many things tend to go wrong: countries tend to fight for available resources; jobs that pay well become less available; deflation becomes more likely; population becomes weakened, and epidemics become more likely. I wrote about the 1920 to 1940 period in a recent post, The Depression of the 1930s Was an Energy Crisis.
The 1980-2000 flat period included the collapse of the Soviet Union, in 1991. The Soviet Union was an oil producer. The Soviet Union collapsed after prices had been low for a long time.
Figure 9. Former Soviet Union oil consumption, production, and inflation-adjusted price, all from BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2015.
Even many years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, population growth in former Soviet Union countries and its affiliates was much lower than in the rest of the world.
Figure 10. World population growth rates between 2005 and 2010. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_growth_rate
Lower population (through falling birth rates, rising death rates, or rising emigration) are a major way that economies self-adjust because of falling energy per capita. Economies tend to fix the low-energy per capita problem by adjusting the population downward.
Recently, we have again been hitting flat periods in energy consumption per capita.
Figure 11. World per capita consumption of oil and of total energy, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy data and UN 2017 population data.
The slowdown in world energy consumption per capita in 2008-2009 was clearly a major problem. Oil, coal and natural gas consumption fell simultaneously. Oil consumption per capita fell more than the overall mix, especially affecting countries heavily dependent on oil (Greece with its tourism, but also the US, Japan, and Europe).
The recent shift in political strategy to more isolationist stances also seems to be the result of flat energy consumption per capita. It is doubtful that Donald Trump would have been elected in the US, if world energy consumption per capita had been growing robustly, and if wage disparity had been less of a problem.
The primary cause of the 2013 to 2016 flat trend in world energy consumption per capita (Figure 11) is falling coal consumption (Figure 12). Many people think coal is unimportant, but it is the world’s second largest source of energy, after oil. We don’t have a good way of getting natural gas production to rise enough, to make up for loss of coal production.
Figure 12
Wind and solar simply do not work for solving our problem of flat or shrinking energy consumption per capita. After spending trillions of dollars on them, they make up only a tiny (1%) share of world energy supply, according to the International Energy Agency. They are part of the little gray “Other” sliver on Figure 13.
Figure 13. Figure prepared by IEA showing Total Primary Energy Supply by type from this IEA document.
Something Has to “Give” When There Is Not Enough Energy Consumption per Capita
The predicament we are facing is that energy consumption per capita seems to be reaching a maximum. This happens because of affordability issues. Over time, the price of energy products needs to rise to keep up with the rising cost of creating these energy products. But if energy prices do rise, workers earning low wages cannot afford to buy goods and services made with high-priced energy products, plus honor all of their other commitments (such as mortgages, auto loans, and student loans). This leads to debt defaults, as it did in the 2008-2009 recession.
At some point, the affordability problem can be expected to hold down energy consumption. This could happen in many ways. Spiking prices and affordability issues could lead to a worse rerun of the 2008-2009 recession. Or if oil prices stay fairly low, oil-exporting countries (such as Venezuela) may collapse because of low prices. Even if oil prices do rise, we may find that higher prices do not lead to sufficient additional supply because investment in new oil fields has been low for many years, because of past low prices.
As long as the world economy is expanding (Figure 14), individual citizens can expect to benefit. Jobs that pay well are likely to be available, and citizens can afford to buy goods with their growing wages. People who sell shares of stock and people who get pension benefits can all receive part of this growing economic output.
Figure 14. Author’s image of an expanding economy.
Once the economy starts to shrink (Figure 15), we start having problems with dividing up the goods and services that are available. How much should retirees get? Governments? Today’s workers? Holders of shares of stocks and bonds? Not all commitments can be honored, simultaneously.
Figure 15. Author’s image of declining economy.
One obvious problem in a shrinking economy is that loans become harder to repay. The problem is that there is less left over for other goods and services, after debt plus interest is subtracted, in a shrinking economy.
Figure 16. Figure by author.
Changing interest rates can to some extent help offset problems related to higher energy prices and shrinking supply. The danger is that interest rates can move in the wrong direction and make our problems worse. In the lead-up to the Great Recession of 2008-2009, the US raised short-term interest rates, helping to puncture the sub-prime mortgage debt bubble.
Figure 17. Figure comparing Case-Shiller Seasonally Adjusted Home Price Index and Federal Reserve End of Quarter Target Interest Rates. See Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis for details.
We now hear a lot of talk about raising interest rates and selling QE securities (which would also tend to raise interest rates). If growth in energy consumption per capita is already flat, these changes could make the problems that the economy is facing even worse.
Our Economy Works Like a Bicycle
Have you ever wondered why a two-wheeled bicycle is able to stay upright? Research shows that a bicycle will stay upright, as long as its speed is greater than 2.3 meters (7.5 feet) per second. This is the result of the physics of the situation. A related academic article states, “This stability typically can occur at forward speeds v near to the square root of (gL), where g is gravity and L is a characteristic length (about 1 m for a modern bicycle).”
Thus, a bicycle will be able to continue in an upright manner, as long as it goes fast enough. If it slows down too much, it will fall down. Our economy is similar.
Gravity plays an important role in determining the speed of a bicycle. If the bicycle is going downhill, gravity gives an important boost to the speed of the bicycle. If the bicycle is going uphill, gravity very much pulls back on the bicycle.
I think of the situation of an economy having rising energy consumption per capita as being very much like riding on a bicycle, speeding down a hill. The person operating the bicycle would not need to provide much extra energy to keep the bicycle going.
If energy consumption per capita is flat, the person riding the bicycle must provide the energy to make it go fast enough, so it doesn’t fall over. This is somewhat of a problem. If energy consumption per capita actually falls, it is a true disaster. The bicyclist himself must provide the energy necessary to push the bicycle and rider uphill.
In fact, there are other ways that a speeding bicycle is analogous to the world economy.
Figure 18. Author’s view of analogies of speeding upright bicycle to speeding economy.
The economy needs a constant flow of outside energy. In the case of the bicycle, the human rider can provide the energy flow. In the case of the economy, the energy flow comes from a mixture of various fuel types, typically dominated by fossil fuels.
Growing debt (front wheel) is important as well. It tends to pull the economy along, because this debt can be used to pay wages and to buy materials to make additional goods and services. Thus, the effect of this increase in debt is indirect; it ultimately works through the bicyclist, the gears, and the back wheel.
In fact, the financial system as a whole is important for the “steering” of the economy. It tells investors which investments are likely to be profitable.
The gearing system of the bicycle plays a modest role in the system. Changing gears allows greater efficiency in the use of the energy that is available, under certain circumstances. But energy efficiency, by itself, cannot operate the system.
If the human rider does not provide sufficient energy for the bicycle to go rapidly enough, the bicycle glides for a while, and then falls over. The world economy seems to be similar. If the world economy does not obtain enough energy per capita, economic growth tends to slow and eventually collapses. The collapse can relate to the whole world economy, or to parts of the economy.
The Problem of Parts of the Economy Not Getting Enough Energy
We can think of the economy as being made up of many bicycles, operated by bicycle riders. At the beginning of the post, I talked about the problem of wage disparity. This issue occurred at the time of the 1930’s Great Depression and is occurring again now.
We might call wage disparity “too low a return on the labor of some workers.” In groups of animals in ecosystems, too low a return on the effort of these animals is what causes ecosystems to collapse. For example, if fish have to swim too far to obtain additional food, their population will collapse. It should not be surprising that economies tend to collapse, when the return on the efforts of part of their workers falls too low.
Wage disparity has to do with how well the operators of bicycles are doing. Are the operators of these bicycles receiving enough calories, so that they can keep pumping their bicycles fast enough so that the speed is high enough to remain upright?
If energy consumption per capita is growing, this greatly helps the operation of the economic system. If there is growing availability of inexpensive energy, machines of various types, including trucks, can be used to increasingly leverage the labor of workers. This increased leveraging helps each worker to become more “productive.” This growing productivity, thanks to growing energy consumption, allows more goods and services to be produced in total. It also allows the wages of the workers to stay high enough that they can afford to buy a reasonable share of the output of the economy. When this happens, “gluts” of unaffordable goods are less of a problem.
If energy consumption per capita is flat (or worse yet, falling), greater “complexity” is needed, to keep output of goods and services rising. Greater complexity involves more specialization and more training of individual members of the economy. Greater complexity leads to larger companies, more government services, and more wage disparity. Unfortunately, there are diminishing returns to complexity, according to Joseph Tainter in “The Collapse of Complex Societies.” Ultimately, increased complexity fails to provide an adequate number of high-paying jobs. Wage disparity becomes a problem that can cause an economy to collapse.
If there is not enough economic output, the physics of the economy tries to “freeze out” workers at the bottom of the hierarchy. Workers with low wages cannot afford homes and families. The incidence of depression rises. Debt levels of disadvantaged groups (such as young people in the US) may rise.
So the situation may not be that the whole world economy fails; it may be that parts of the economy collapse. In fact, we are already seeing evidence that this is taking place. For example, life expectancies for US men have been falling for two years, because of growing problems with drug overdoses.
Conclusions
In 2017, the world economy seemed to be gliding smoothly along because the economy has been able to get the benefit of artificially low energy prices and artificially low interest rates. These artificially low prices and interest rates have given a temporary boost to the world economy. Countries using large amounts of energy products, including the US, especially benefitted.
We cannot expect this temporary condition to continue, however. Low oil prices have already started to disappear, with Brent oil prices at nearly $69 per barrel at this writing. The trends in oil prices and oil stocks in Figure 6 are disturbing. If oil prices begin to rise toward the price needed by oil producers, they are likely to trigger a recession and a drop in world energy consumption, just as spiking prices did in 2008-2009. There is a significant chance of collapse in the next 12 to 24 months. It is hard to know how widespread such a collapse may be; it may primarily affect particular countries and population groups.
To make matters worse, our leaders do not seem to understand the situation. The world economy badly needs rising energy consumption per capita. Plans to raise interest rates and sell QE securities, when the economy is already “at the edge,” are playing with fire. If we are to keep the world economy operating, large quantities of additional energy supplies need to be found at very low cost. It is hard to be optimistic about this happening. High-cost energy supplies are worthless when it comes to operating the economy because they are unaffordable.
Many followers of the oil situation have had great faith in Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROI) analysis telling us which kinds of energy supplies we should increase. Unfortunately, EROI doesn’t tell us enough. It doesn’t tell us if a particular product is scalable at reasonable cost. Wind and solar are great disappointments, when total costs, including the cost of mitigating intermittency on the grid, are considered. They do not appear to be solutions on any major scale.
Other researchers looking at the energy situation have not understood how “baked into the cake” the need for economic growth, rising per capita energy consumption, and rising debt levels really are. Rising debt is not an error in how the financial system is put together; a bicycle needs a front wheel, or it cannot operate at all (Figure 18). I have written other articles regarding why debt is needed to pull the economic system forward.
This economic growth cannot be “fake growth” either, where a debt Ponzi Scheme seems to allow purchases that real-life consumers cannot afford. Quite a bit of what is reported as world GDP today is of a very “iffy” nature. If China builds a huge number of apartments that citizens cannot afford without subsidies, should these be counted as true GDP growth? How about unneeded roads, built using the rising debt of the Japanese government? Or recycling performed around the world, because it makes people “feel good,” but really requires substantial subsidies?
At this point, it is hard for us to know where we really are, because every government wants to make GDP results look as favorable as possible. It is clear, however, that 2018 and 2019 can be expected to have more challenges than 2017. We have interesting times ahead!
This Tourism Hotspot Could be the World’s First City to Run Out of Water (Video)
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For the first time, a major city may run out of water this year.
South Africa’s city of Cape Town has been grappling with water shortages that are the result of what the Weather Channel calls the worst drought to hit the country in 100 years. The situation may result in Cape Town officials shutting off all of the city’s water taps this April.
Irregularly dry winters have created exceedingly low dam levels within the country, leading city representatives to set a “Day Zero” date, which is when they believe the country will see dam levels drop below 13.5 percent and lead to the mandatory shutting off of all taps.
Currently, the date is set for April 22. That’s a week earlier than the previous date set for April 29, with the city’s current dam levels only providing 19.7 percent of water that is actually useable.
Going off the rails on a crazy train…
Not a good situation. The fancy video that doesn’t say a whole lot.
If the price of energy were free, countries would desalinate enough water for their population. So this is partly a high-cost energy problem.
It is also a population problem. The population of South Africa was 13.6 million in 1950 according to the UN; now it is something like 57 or 58 million. I imagine that the population of cities has grown even more than the total population. And people expect more landscaping, based on your photo.
A third issue is industrial use of water. Electric power plants use a lot of water; so do coal processing plants. I would presume that South Africa stays away from bottling water and other high water use industries.
So I wouldn’t blame the problem entirely on the drought.
This article says Cape Town’s water crisis: driven by politics more than drought. According to it,
The author blames the problems at the national level on “debt, mismanagement, and corruption.” Later it says,
If the place weren’t overpopulated (strike that – populated), they wouldn’t be in this predicament in the first place.
Sounds like a good candidate for the next peripheral country to collapse.
Look at these charts if you doubt the reality of AGW. The Arctic sea ice volume is at least 3 standard deviations below the average. What are the odds of that in a world that is not warming? 1:1,000,000 or more (am I wrong there Gail?). The methane is coming, soon.
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2018/01/piomas-january-2018.html
The simplest experiment to do is to place some water and ice in a pot. Put in a thermometer 0’C. Add heat, still 0’C until the ice melts, then watch the temperature rise.
It is staggering the number of people that do not understand latent heat and what is happening to the Earth’s volume of ice.
It appears that belief is more important than science.
Despite this, peak FF is still a much bigger issue, with no way out.
When oil prices next spike upwards, with CBs trying to control inflation at the same time, we get to enjoy (NOT) the next step down the Seneca cliff, hopefully not the big one!!
We can all agree that the climate is changing. It may be warming. The point is that we can do nothing about it.
We can do nothing about the finiteness of this world either… except talk 🙂
oh, no!
the methane is coming!
the methane is coming!
run for the hills!
But Al Gore bought ocean level property for $9M – why?
Could it be that he is right – renewable energy will put an end to ___ ___ and his property will triple in value?
Someone should check to see if Al is buying up ocean level properties around the world…
Now that would be smart!!!
So what will happen when all the arctic sea ice has melted?
Tears indicate total sincerity …. so feel free to let it all hang out….. after nearly 12 years being burdened and frustrated by the belief that we were destined to broil…. surely there must be some tears of relief … or even joy!!!
I am considering launching a class action suit against A l G ore…. citing mental anguish caused by his fra ud ulent scheme…. on a personal level I was at one point close to committing su ici de because of feelings of neg ativity about the future…. I will let the rest of you reformed ___ ___ ers
We really need to stick it to that Sun of a B it
ch …. flying around in that go dd a mn airplane and living large…. while telling us to walk to the corner store instead of driving …. if he’d had his way we’d all be living in blo ody grass huts while he luxuriates in his 9 million dollar mega mansion on the sea….
How dare he play us like that!!!!
I will let the rest of you ex- ___ ___ ers know if this law suit goes ahead. Maybe we can settle with him and get that mansion and a private jet.
“after nearly 12 years being burdened and frustrated by the belief”
Ah well there’s your problem, and also I imagine that of the rest of the BAU-or-bust club. Unrealistic beliefs invert themselves when their possessor realises they cannot be believed. Personally, I’ve never been one for beliefs of any kind, within any context.
jupiviv says, “Personally, I’ve never been one for beliefs of any kind, within any context.”
Absolutely sir!
But, when one tries to separate belief from fact, or belief from a likely truth, one has to have knowledge, and must be able to face the simple reality that we cannot know everything. We all have our main thing that we really understand, and the lucky among us have things that we are just now learning.
It is a sad and pathetic creature that claims to be sentient and yet believes that purposeful and hubristic ignorance is something of which to be proud. There are so many people out there with no clue, and no way to be educated that it is mind boggling to me. Worse than the fact that people don’t get science is the fact that many, a vast majority in my experience, also have no clue how to be decent. That is, they have no idea how a worthwhile person should interact with the world, their fellow man, or the universe. For example, most religious people go to church as a way to make more money.
So, now I find that BAU will likely go on yet another year, and humanity will get to rape and pillage for at least another 365 days. It is deeply saddening.
What makes you say, “Most religious people go to church as a way to make more money”?
Pintada, a lot of what you said about people resonates with me emotionally. Indeed, I’ve said a lot of the same things myself at one time or another. For example, I went through my anti-religion tirade as a teenager, and boy! was I disappointed as a young adult when I discovered that most people I encountered either personally or via the media never quite managed to make it past emotional adolescence.
But then again, the only person I have a modicum of power over is Yours Truly. Over others, at best I have influence. Lamenting the fact that over people fall short of my standards of decency, morality, maturity or intellectual excellence or pitying them for their faults or judging them unworthy on my scale is one of the ways I violate the precepts of being a decent, moral, mature and intellectually excellent being.
Why should we expect others to live up to our standards and why should we be peeved when they don’t? Isn’t it enough that we notice how others behave and how we react to their behavior?
I asked Uncle Bertie what he thought, and with all the subtlety of a well-baked fortune cookie, he told me:
https://dcbarroco.files.wordpress.com/2016/02/160225b-bertrand-russell.jpg
“Why should we expect others to live up to our standards and why should we be peeved when they don’t?”
Then why are you telling this to others, or being peeved when they don’t agree?
I’m not peeved in the least and I’m telling this to Pintada as a perfectly legitimate response to what Pintada wrote. Pintada’s writing literally wreaks of being peeved.
He/She/It/They appear(s) to be channelling Lisa Simpson.
https://youtu.be/epKaBv6ALcI
By the way, when you wrote “Then why…..”, you raised a non sequitur, which is a logical fallacy. If you’d have simply asked “Why….” you would have been standing on firm logical ground, but starting off with “Then” was an attempt to link two things that are in no way connected.
A non sequitur is something said that has nothing to do with what was said previously. Non sequiturs often sound a bit absurd because there is no logical leap from one statement to the next. If you don’t find it a bit absurd, that might be because you are tone deaf to logical consistency and therefore easy prey for True Believer cults of all kinds.
This is more of the same self-contradiction I pointed out earlier. Vanity of vanities; all is vanity!
OK, my bad. That should have been “reeks of being peeved”.
Being peeved, on the other hand, if it goes on too long, wreaks havoc on the human psyche. That’s why it’s a kindness to encourage sufferers to wean themselves off the habit.
It’s so very easy to see the vanity in other peoples words and deeds, but so difficult to recognize it in our own. Also, it’s no easy matter to be able to judge whether we are actually pointing out other people’s faults or merely projecting our own. Finally, a lot of what we are trying to communicate goes over the heads of the people it’s intended for because they are less intelligent or more stu-pid than we are or they aren’t paying attention. Don’t you agree?
For example, most religious people go to church as a way to make more money.
In my experience, most religious people go to church in order to practice their religion, and it usually costs them money. But perhaps your definition of “religious people” differs from mine.
Was she religious?
http://inspirationboost.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Mother-Teresa-Judge-Quotes.jpg
How about him?
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“The fate of mankind, as well as religion, depends on the emergence of a new faith in the future. Armed with such a faith, we might find it possible to re-sanctify the earth.”
—Al Gore
We have our first ___ ____ grooopy …. repenting…. look how easy it is… 3 small words…. just 3….
https://78.media.tumblr.com/af41b816b20c04d8bc02d31793d24802/tumblr_myykuuIUlO1r0fdszo1_500.gif
If anyone is having trouble saying these 3 words…. then how about some baby steps…. just type in a happy face – like this: 🙂 ….. I will take that as a sign that you admit you are wrong but prefer not to put it in writing
Of you could just post this . That would also be taken as a sign of repentance.
You’re forgiven.
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The screams of denial sound like the squealing of a pig beginning delivered to the butchers shop. The volume of their protestations being directly proportional to the proximity of their inevitable fate.
Two Brothers, Tied to the Land, Face Wrath of America’s Farm Bust
https://www.wsj.com/articles/two-brothers-tied-to-the-land-face-wrath-of-americas-farm-bust-1513615986
Trump, tweets couldn’t save U.S. auto jobs in 2017
https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/2018/01/12/trump-gm-ford-fiat-chrysler-jobs/1018786001/
A decline in US autos sold means that less capacity is needed. This is the fundamental problem behind job loss. I am not sure final numbers are out yet, but this article talks about US auto sales being down by 2%. http://www.jdpower.com/cars/articles/auto-sales/2017-us-auto-sales-finish-lower-despite-strength-trucks-suvs
I looked at a few other countries as well. I see China auto sales shrink in December, end year up 1.4%. This is not a good sign for world demand. http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/china-auto-sales-shrink-december-end-year-14-52300843
Japan’s auto sales seem to be up 5.3%! Wow! https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/salesfig_japan_2017
UK auto sales were down 5.7% for 2017. https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/
German sales were up 2.7%. https://www.best-selling-cars.com/germany/2017-full-year-germany-best-selling-car-manufacturers-brands/
Italy’s auto sales were up nearly 8 percent http://www.autonewsdatacenter.com/section/NUMBERS
Spain’s auto sales increased by nearly 8% as well. http://www.autonewsdatacenter.com/section/NUMBERS
France’s sales rise by nearly 5%. http://www.autonewsdatacenter.com/section/NUMBERS
Australia’s auto sales were up 0.9% https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/auto/2018/01/05/car-sales-figures-2017-utes-suvs/ A lot of these were imported SUVs
So outside the US, UK and China, auto sales seem to be doing pretty well. All we need to do is build for export.
Trump’s whole economic strategy is to point to the stock market as a sign of how well things are doing.
What get’s me is how the DOW went from him describing it as a bubble during his candidacy, when it was at 16,000 pts, to now being an economic miracle at 25,000 pts, now that he’s pres?
http://www.threadbombing.com/data/media/2/maxwell_smart__confused.gif
Stuuuupid humans:
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180112_ouch.png
Perhaps people are smart enough to know that savings won’t work. Debt and less savings is what keeps the economy going, at least temporarily.
It’s the consumer confidence part I was referring to…. 🙂
“Perhaps people are smart enough to know that savings won’t work.”
Bit of a non sequitur, since most people aren’t thinking about the whole economy when choosing to save/spend.
You are right. Most people don’t think about this issue. But if they do think about buying a house or a car or getting a university degree, a lot of them will figure out that they will need a loan. Otherwise, they will work their entire lives, and never save up enough.
It is capital that builds a strong economy and that can only come through savings. Debt binges always lead to a bust.
According to the conventional wisdom, some must save so that others can spend. Unless, of course, your numbers come up.
https://imfromyorkshire.uk.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/30th-September-pools-who-ate-all-the-pies-e1474889441737-1160×500.jpg
This is a day which Castleford woman, Viv Nicholson will never forget. On 30th September 1961, her and then husband, Keith scooped £152,319 from winning the football pools. In today’s money this would amount to £5m. When asked what she would do with her fortune, she famously replied, “I’m gonna spend, spend, spend.” Famously, with her new found wealth, Viv Nicholson’s life began to spiral out of control.
After blowing her fortune on lavish clothes, cars, holidays abroad and alcohol, their lives took a tragic turn when Keith was killed in a car crash in 1965. A court wrangle ensued, as Nicholson fought to gain what was left of their fortune, which was in his estate. She remarried in the 70s, but like Keith [he] was killed in another car accident. During her wealthy years and afterwards, when she had spent all the money, her life descended into alcoholism and bankruptcy. In the late 70s, after a short, abusive marriage, she quit drinking and became a Jehovas Witness. A book and film musical was made about her life in 1998 and she launched a short-lived fashion boutique. In older age Nicholson earned just a widow’s pension, but from time to time would appear on local television. By the time she had passed away in April 2015 she had gone through a £5m fortune (in today’s money) had five husbands, four children and plenty of champagne.
Sorry, conventional beliefs are wrong. Promises are the basis of everything. Debt is very similar to shares of stock. We need one type of “funding” or another. We started making promises of future payment, back when we were hunter-gatherers, so that specialization and economies of scale could take place. Promises don’t require anything. If we want to build a machine which has future usefulness, we need to pay the workers with the hoped-for future benefits of the machine. This necessitates debt.
Debit with interest is the problem because in order to pay off the interest you have to grow the economy which according to OFW is no longer possible.
No. The problem is a lot more basis than debt with interest. Partly, it is related to the fact that world population is constantly growing. We have to produce more and more, just to stay even.
In order to produce more and more, we have to extract resources that are increasingly difficult to extract. Somehow, this requires either higher cost, or increased complexity (machines and specialized jobs), or both.
Furthermore, to pay for this all, we need to have shares of stock, or perhaps debt. The amount of goods and services has to be continually rising to match up with the promises underlying the sale of shares of stock or of issuing debt.
I ran across an article in the WSJ called, Merkel Edges Closer to Fourth Term as Chancellor.
According to the article, it is not yet a “done deal,” but it looks like there is hope.
I would describe the magic ingredient as more debt. According to the article,
I think that the US tax change will be seen in retrospect to be very much a more debt scheme. There were goodies for almost everyone; it wasn’t just tax cuts for the rich. It seems like Germany is following the same route.
Perhaps all of the additional governmental debt will keep things together a bit longer, and allow fuel prices to rise a little higher.
If you cut taxes… you need to make up for that loss of revenue in some other manner… so yep — pile on more debt.
Alas it does not seem to matter – at least anytime soon …. look at Japan’s debt… the dung is piled so high it should have fallen over years ago….
You can use the debt to create lots of jobs. Eighty year old ladies can pour tea for visiting tourists.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2017/05/woman-cleaning-up-after-tea-ceremony.jpg
You can have crossing guards and extra police, wherever they might be helpful. You can pave every stream with stones.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/stones-in-creek-bed.jpg
You can build roads that have no cars, and bridges that are rarely used. And big concrete rocks to hold back the sea.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2017/05/man-made-rocks.jpg
People with jobs will feel good, because they are at least somewhat benefiting the system.
But at some point, the system worldwide has to stop working. The amount of resources extracted each year starts falling. Some “bicycles” will fall over. Maybe whole economies will fail.
The Czech presidential election 2018:
The dark-skinned FEMMEN activist attacks the current president and presidential candidate Milos Zeman (he worked in the area of economic forecasts during the communism) during his voting
https://volby.idnes.cz/milos-zeman-prezidentske-volby-aktivistka-utok-hlasovani-mistnost-1gi-/prezidentske-volby-2018.aspx?c=A180112_151018_prezidentske-volby-2018_ane
http://www.ahaonline.cz/clanek/zhave-drby/142806/utok-na-zemana-polonahou-utocnici-zpacifikovala-ochranka.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milo%C5%A1_Zeman
“The dark-skinned FEMMEN activist attacks the current president and presidential candidate Milos Zeman …”
Not much of an attack if you ask me. More like an over-reaction to a non-violent protest.
She was very close, entered into his private zone. According to other articles, her fater was from Angola and mother from Ukraine.
I ask myself, if it is possible that a white-skinned woman of European origin would attacked him, too? The text “Zeman is Putins s1 u t”, she had on her naked body, is just one part of this scene among various other components, like her biological characteristics.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-attacks-protections-for-immigrants-from-shithole-countries-in-oval-office-meeting/2018/01/11/bfc0725c-f711-11e7-91af-31ac729add94_story.html
is this guy is retarded does he know most of resources come for this shithole countries
I noticed his example of a good country is Norway according to Trump is a very high “energy per capita” country. The problematic countries are very low energy-per-capita countries. We need a less vulgar way of describing low energy-per-capita countries. People from low energy-per-capita countries have generally had very little education. (Either that, or we are taking the best-educated people from poor countries, and moving them to rich countries, leaving the low energy-er-capita countries worse off than they were before.) Education is a big piece of what high energy-per-capita buys. Culture may be a problem as well. Many very poor countries allow multiple wives, for example.
The reason why people want to move from the areas that Trump is concerned about is not that they currently have resources, but that they used to have resources. Too many of the countries were rich in resources at one time, but are no longer.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/yemen-oil-production-and-consumption.png
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/syria-oil-production-and-consumption-eia.png
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/egypt-oil-production-and-consumption.png
The museums of the industrial world are full of beautiful works of art originating in countries, continents and cities which once had resources, and empires.
Was in the British Museum a few years ago with M Fast…. and I commented how there was no admission fee… and M Fast said — that’s the least they could do considering everything in here is stolen.
Nice one Madame… very nice….
http://confesh-sesh.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/ba-dum-tss-gif-4.gif
The Victorian imperialists might have been thieves, but at least they had some style – they got the pick of the world.
Governance. That’s the key. A country may be well endowed with natural resources but if the rulers are kleptocrats – then it will be a ‘toilet bowl’.
In respect of the different amounts of liquid fossil fuels consumed per person per day, they are giving quite contradictory outcomes when I convert the values to liters/person/day.
First world countries should be above 12 liters; second world countries will be below 7 liters and above 3 ; third world will lie in range 3 liters or below. China and India should be in 1 to 2 liter range; India is, but China gives a value of almost 6! Data needs careful analysis.
Brian.
A country may be well endowed with natural resources but if the rulers are kleptocrats – then it will be a ‘toilet bowl’.
I prefer to call the rulers of these countries puppets…. we put them in power… they allow us to rape the resources… they get a nice slice of the pie for playing ball… and if they refuse to play ball…
Our long years of negotiations with foreign countries… have yielded no results thus far. With the oil revenues we could meet our entire budget and combat poverty, disease, and backwardness among our people. Another important consideration is that by the elimination of the power of the British company, we would also eliminate corruption and intrigue, by means of which the internal affairs of our country have been influenced. Once this tutelage has ceased, Iran will have achieved its economic and political independence. The Iranian state prefers to take over the production of petroleum itself. The company should do nothing else but return its property to the rightful owners. The nationalization law provide that 25% of the net profits on oil be set aside to meet all the legitimate claims of the company for compensation. It has been asserted abroad that Iran intends to expel the foreign oil experts from the country and then shut down oil installations. Not only is this allegation absurd; it is utter invention.[31]
They get this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammad_Mosaddegh#Plot_to_depose_Mosaddegh
All of our countries are going to be “Holes” once the depletion rates overtake the frackers……..
please tell mr trump about this thing
The mere presence of Mr Trump tends, in my humble opinion, to qualify a country as some kind of ‘ …..hole’.
Or perhaps an open-air lunatic asylum?
http://www.azquotes.com/picture-quotes/quote-dammit-america-is-a-hellhole-and-don-t-let-anyone-tell-you-otherwise-chris-christie-147-36-21.jpg
It is sort of ironic that Norway is in its current position because of its oil supply. In fact, it is headed downhill, for the same reason the other countries were, plus low prices.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/09/science/spacex-zuma-satellite.html
Mission “may” have failed? Ahhh, no. If the “mission” was extorting stock holder and taxpayer funds, “mission” accomplished.
Interesting point!
That makes no sense whatsoever. Business models on this scale are not based on failure or duping clients. To get future business they need other clients or at least investors and that can’t be based on conning people. If it is, it fails and their business model also fails. They will have to figure out what went wrong, convince people they’re past that problem to reinstill confidence/faith in future launchings.
The rocket was empty.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/01/180110141317.htm
Sorry to bring up the bad 7 letter word (science). Around here we are expecting some possible flooding today and this weekend from an early winter thaw.
As long as you follow your introduction with a suitable course of action (move uphill), there is no problem.
Or perhaps, tell people to reduce their meat consumption, to try to reduce our demands on world resources.
Yep – it rained in the winter… cuz of ___ ____. Then it snowed.
Where I am from – Northern Ontario – it was raining the other day — now it’s – 35 C with the wind chill. And so far it has been one of the coldest winters in a long time.
I guess that C02 blanket only covers select parts of the planet.
Colder winter in Norway this year as well! Which is great so I can Burn More Wood in the wood stove.
Thanks for the article…looks like we will roll BAU for 2018
Whatever it takes…and then some
Fed’s Dudley warns that tax cuts putting economy on an ‘unsustainable path’
New York Fed President William Dudley said recently passed tax cuts are putting the U.S. on an “unsustainable” fiscal path that will threaten growth in the future.
The comments echo recent remarks from Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who said in November that escalating public debt and deficits “should keep people awake at night.”
Despite his longer-term pessimism, Dudley raised his outlook for 2018 GDP growth from 2.5 percent to 2.75 percent
While he said the reforms that slash corporate taxes and lower rates for many earners will boost the economy in the near term, that “will come at a cost.”
“After all, there is no such thing as a free lunch,” Dudley said during a speech in New York, according to prepared remarks. “The legislation will increase the nation’s longer-term fiscal burden, which is already facing other pressures, such as higher debt service costs and entitlement spending as the baby-boom generation retires.”
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/01/11/dudley-warns-that-tax-cuts-putting-economy-on-an-unsustainable-path.html
Seems are long term planning now is year to year!
I agree; it is hard to do long term planning any more.
At some point, there has to be a conflict between the resources that are available and the resources that are needed for the world’s population. Also, the financial system cannot hold up under the strains.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-11/greeks-go-strike-be-allowed-strike
http://greece.greekreporter.com/files/u2_473_355.jpg
How does one do that?
Greek two year bonds are trading at a lower interest rate than US government two-year bonds? Things are getting very strange. Of course, Greece is one country that has benefitted from the lower oil prices since 2014. So there are some aspects that are better.
am i still invited to your end o’ de world party, o mighty one?
Of course. A little warm up happening this evening …
Uber to give us autonomous flying cars:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/11/autonomous-flying-vehicles-heres-what-the-future-of-cars-could-be.html
“With a push of a button, a flying vehicle could pick a passenger up and take them to their destination, he said. “This is something where we’re working with a variety of stakeholders… internationally to bring this technology about, including NASA.”
“Uber’s goal, he said, was to target the piloting of such a service by 2020 before rolling it out as a “mainstream service” in 2023.”
by 2023!
wow!
thanks, Uber!
That’s right up there with the Kodak money machine and __ ___ing in terms of total utter bull s h it.
https://images.fineartamerica.com/images-medium-large-5/spinning-out-of-control-eunice-gibb.jpg
Can FE be banned from posting pics?
Can – yes. Will – no. Pics tell 1000 words.
desperation: meet the Kodak KashMiner:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/10/this-3400-bitcoin-mining-machine-is-a-cornerstone-of-kodaks-crypto-pivot.html
but then their shares tripled!
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/10/kodak-shares-have-more-than-tripled-since-announcing-kodakcoin.html
KodakCoin: is this insane?
oh…
I should ask Oprah.
Cool – a perpetual economic prosperity machine.
Please tell me that is from a fake news site that is making this up?
Oh I see… it’s CNBC….
I feel better now.
We have to be really close to the edge… teetering in fact.
I guarantee you — people will be putting money down for that contraption.
What is sad is that there are people who are in some ways concerned about limits, but when they hear about these fantastic ideas, they assume that our problems have all been solved. Technology will save us!
I feel the need… to sacrifice a small animal…. maybe bite the head off of a rat or a bird….
a rat…
please…
let us know how it all went…
I’m told “tastes like chicken”
thanks.
I’d try to take down a DelusiSTANI… but I fear being infected
As has been pointed out — the purpose of GW…. is to distract the masses from the real problems we are facing – problems without solutions….
To keep the masses from panicking.
FEEL the PROPAGANDA!!!!
“A decade after An Inconvenient Truth (2006) brought climate change into the heart of popular culture comes the follow-up that shows just how close we are to a real energy revolution.”
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt6322922/
We are ALMOST THERE… just a little more effort…. let’s all pull together.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2017/12/iea-primary-energy-suppy-1973-and-2015.png
Ooops!
I don’t really research the subject, but I thought this was great.
The nobel laureate says physics is a pseudoscience. Global warming science begins with a hypotheses, and then only looks for things to confirm it. It becomes a religion.
In my opinion, about the time that interest in climate change started rising, many people were getting concerned about Peak Oil. Climate change looked like it might be a convenient “answer” to all of the concern about Peak Oil. Raising interest in Climate Change would get people to be concerned about something other than Peak Oil. Furthermore, if a solution could be found, it might answer the Peak Oil problem as well as the Climate Change problem. Of course, a solution has not been found for either Peak Oil or Climate Change.
The new focus has elevated the status of climate scientists, and given excuse for a lot of funding for “renewables.” It has made it look like we have a fairly distant, solvable problem rather than a fairly near-term predicament without a solution. Emphasizing climate change over peak oil is an expedient solution to a political problem.
OK ___ ___ groooopies….
Let’s distill this issue to its bare essence:
– Al Gore is the key figure in the __ __ debate
– he has been urging us to Take Action since 2006
– if we do not Take Action very quickly he predicts the Arctic will melt within the next 10 years and that Manhattan will be under water
– he lives in a mansion that uses 30x the energy of an average house
– he regularly flies in private jets for business purposes – and to cities where he makes appearances URGING us to stop burning fossil fuels now
– even though he believes Manhattan will be underwater within 10 years (and this means all coastal cities will be under water because water has this habit of seeking its own level) – he recently purchased a $9,000,000 home that sits on a beach — less than a 1 metre above sea level.
– when asked about any of this he will not comment
– when asked why his predictions have not come true he claims that ‘renewable’ energy has advanced to the point where it is mitigating the ___ ___ — conveniently ignoring the fact that we are burning far more fossil fuels now than in 2006
Ask yourself — are these things that the key player in the fight against ___ ___ would do if he truly believed what he was saying????
Now there is duuumb … and there is duuumbbber…… but if, after reading the above, you still believe that ____ ___ is not a hoax (aimed at distracting us from peak everything) …..
Then I am sorry to say — you are experiencing what is known as extreme R E T A R D A T I O N.
I regret to inform you that if the above facts and logic do not cure you…. then your R E T A R D A T I O N is permanent. Nothing will cure you.
The good news is that this defect will not impair your ability to function in society – 99.99999% of all people share your defect….. and they get along just fine.
Repent yee sinners repent!!! Salvation is at hand!!!
Who is going to be the first to have the courage to say: I WAS WRONG.
It is ok to be WRONG. Up until 6 months ago I was living in filthy sin as well — I too believed that the ___ ___ was real. I too mocked and ridiculed anyone who dissented…
But then … BUT THEN… BUT THEN!!!!!!!!!!!! I saw the light. The lord of logic pulled the wool from my eyes… and I began to rejoice…. and I asked myself Fast — how could you have been so f789ing steeewwpid????
You pride yourself and not being sucked in and played by the MSM…. but you formed your position based on the fact that the MSM overwhelming propones the ___ ___ narrative…. when you KNOW that when the MSM repeats something endlessly – that indicates that the MSM is lying.
But never mind that …. all that matters is that the light has broken through.
I was wrong. I was wrong. I WAS WRONG!!!!
Hallef789ingluya… I was wrong!
Come before The World Champion — psile… norman…. and yee other sinners…. throw the chains of propaganda and indoctrination from your bent shoulders…. smash them to pieces….
Come out of the darkness…
All together:
http://hoodmemorial.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/tumblr_lsxczq1g501qeh83so1_r1_500.png
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/f9/43/cb/f943cb2cdee9045183b23ea902117b54.jpg
https://itiswhatitiscolumn.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/admitting-wrong-is-an-act-of-the-strong_-1.png
https://i.pinimg.com/736x/ba/54/d8/ba54d8c56835958894eb869b9515bfca–regrets-and-mistakes-make-mistakes.jpg
the economy is unsustainable?
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/11/dudley-warns-that-tax-cuts-putting-economy-on-an-unsustainable-path.html
wow, what a shocker!
Don’t worry the Republicans are going to make us all rich just like they have with their southern strongholds!
https://imgur.com/a/3igtf
Credit scores are heavily used in auto and homeowners insurance rates as well. Those with low credit scores tend to get higher insurance rates, partly because there is more of a tendency for fraud among those who really cannot afford the insurance. There are likely other issues involved: more drug use and more carelessness among people who consider their current plight hopeless.
Southern Republican strongholds are areas that clearly need an average wage boost. The low wages in these areas seem to indicate that the value being added by workers in these areas is not very high. The value added can be high if a lot of energy leveraging is used–lots of machines, trucks, etc. Also, concentrations of jobs for managers and highly educated people tends to raise wages. These jobs for managers and highly educated people are largely the result of greater complexity. The complexity jobs seem to be concentrated in the Northeast and along the West Coast.
Originally, the jobs using energy leveraging were added in the Midwest especially (farms, and industries in Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and parts of the East). As oil costs rose, its benefit for leveraging became less. We became less competitive with countries that used coal more heavily in their mix. New jobs were added in the South, but at much lower wages, to better compete with overseas wages (and to reflect the fact that high oil costs reduce what we can pay as wages–reduce the benefit of oil leveraging). Population drained out of rural areas to cities, where jobs at higher wages were available. The South ended up with low wages. High divorce rates went along with low wages. https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/04/us-divorce-rate_n_4184261.html
How Trump’s policies will affect the situation remains to be seen. It will add a whole lot of debt, and some of this debt will lead to greater wages. It is clear, though, that the South (really Southeast) tends to be “worst off.”
Part 1 was the recent tax cuts are for the Rich. Part two is when entitlements get reduced dramatically and the deficits are reduced in size. It’s a balancing act on the shoulders of those with little or no power.
I question how much entitlements will get reduced; instead, the deficit will rise higher and higher, in an attempt to raise oil (and other fuel) prices to try and get more out. The biggest cuts may be in health care. It is hard to reduce Social Security by much.
At some point they’ll have to resort to helicopter money / universal income, I think, to attempt to counter debt deflation and push up commodity / energy prices. And it can be disguised as progressive social justice or something to boot.
From my very limited view of the world the poor have no debt. The system only needs them to have an income above riot level.
It is the “middle class” that is drowning in debt. They have decent income and no problem finding work. They need low/negative interest more than UBI. Low interest also has the advantage of keeping them from retirement.
Our whole path has been unsustainable. So what is new? More debt is what may enable hanging on a bit longer.
What does the MSM have to do with serious climate science? Please explain.
FoxNews is the main bunch that is pushing the anti-climate science spew. Somehow they have penetrated the brains of the dumbest illiterates on the planet(go USA) and installed some insane concept that GW is just some cooked up political stunt by the DNC and CNN.
Well, I would like to see some political operative contact and try to bribe a single scientist- much less an entire field of science. Just see what happens if you try offering a bribe to a group of natural scientists to create a new fake branch of science just to serve political ends.
Of course, scientists are competitors- individually, institutionally, regionally, nationally. They progress by destroying each others scientific conclusions. So any climate science “conspiracy” from America would be rapidly targeted and destroyed by natural scientists from other nations or honest institutions.
The climate clearly is changing. We can all agree that that is the case.
But there are a couple of widespread false assumptions:
1. GW models are all based on the assumption that far more fossil fuels can be extracted than is actually the case. This is an assumption of all MSM articles, in general. Climate scientists have no expertise in this areas. Even the low range FF estimates of future warming are quite possibly too high.
2. We humans, through our choice of fuels (fossil fuel, nuclear, etc.), can substantially change the GW trajectory.
The big issue with fossil fuels is that there really aren’t enough of them, at low enough cost, to power society. We don’t really have good options for changing. Substituting high-cost fuels is worse than worthless. Wind and solar do not work on electric grids at scale because of their intermittency. Offsetting this greatly increases the true cost of these approaches. The false pricing of these fuels drives other electricity producers out of business. There is also issue with scalability.
If there is a way that humans can slightly change our trajectory, I expect it comes from changing our food, not our supplemental energy. Meat and fish are higher on the food chain than plants. If we could cut back on our use of meat and fish, and eat a more vegetarian diet, it might be helpful. I wonder, too, if all of the meat-eating pets we keep for companionship are adding to the meat and fish demands of the world. This would cut back on the land area that needs to be farmed and the damage that we are doing to the oceans.
If the narrative changed to a different story–we humans are placing too many demands on the world and its resources, and in doing so, we are using resource faster than we should. We need to change our trajectory by eating a more vegetarian diet, and keeping fewer meat-eating pets that aren’t really useful for helping in any way. I expect that mostly what would happen, though, is that this shift would simply allow human population to grow more quickly, and the result would be about the same.
Anyhow, the narrative we are being told is not correct. It sounds like it should be correct, but there are a whole lot of wrong pieces to it.
If there is any way of fixing (slightly postponing) the problem, it likely includes eating less meat. And perhaps adding more debt, to try to get fossil fuel prices higher. If the GW folks would change their narrative, from their absurd statements about fossil fuels, the situation would be less objectionable.
I believe that diet is down the line slightly on the chain of causative events. For me, land use is among the very top on the list. But then I also put a feminist revolution at the top. Then I woke up thinking that feminism and land use were similar (or integrated) issues.
To simplify the subject for now I would say that we’re in a system run by patriarchy…and that patriarchy has co-evolved with civilization. We are all products of this system, which has of course produced many good things. But it’s produced too many people and used too many resources to be useful any longer. It’s also brought technology to such an advanced place that it compensates for the brawn that males traditionally supplied. (That means females are no longer as dependent on male upper body strength.) The budding feminist revolution we see around us has the makings of a corresponding land use revolution as well. The successful land use opposition movements in my area are led by women. Feminism is far less rapacious of natural resources than is patriarchy, although it’s too simple to say that feminism depends less on a meat diet than patriarchy. It “tends” to due to very complex and systemic correlates to feminism. And if women are given the education they want, and control over their reproductive choices, changes in living arrangements (and land use) might emerge from that and support massive population reduction (if and according to how it is needed)
“If the narrative changed to a different story–we humans are placing too many demands on the world and its resources, and in doing so, we are using resource faster than we should. We need to change our trajectory by eating a more vegetarian diet, and keeping fewer meat-eating pets that aren’t really useful for helping in any way. I expect that mostly what would happen, though, is that this shift would simply allow human population to grow more quickly, and the result would be about the same.”
“Feminism is far less rapacious of natural resources than is patriarchy,”
The resource surpluses and automation provided by industrial societies allows feminism to exist. It is entirely dependent upon rapacious consumption.
There is no alternative.
Maybe fishing could mostly be prohibited through international agreements, but hardly meat, dairy, eggs.
Best the future can hope for is a quick transition to wind and solar so we can shut down nuclear in an orderly fashion before/during collapse.
The klimate is changing … now … and since the beginning of time… and it will keep changing right up until the earth turns into a big dead rock
You’r right about many things, but not this.
This is one of the issues that I am 100% confident that I am right.
Perhaps you could explain to me why Al Gore stated that Manhattan would be under water within the next 10 years…. then bought a $9,000,000 ocean front property?
Let’s see how Mr Cognitive Dissonance takes over your peanut-sized brain …. and provides you some ridiculous excuse
http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/2014/01/observing.gif
“Let’s see how Mr Cognitive Dissonance takes over your peanut-sized brain …. and provides you some ridiculous excuse”
YOU’RE OUT OF LINE, BRO. Make sure you take your meds.
How about you answer the question first — then we can see if Fast Eddy is out of line….
https://memeguy.com/photos/images/mrw-waiting-for-gifs-to-load-on-reddit-mobile-174776.gif
maybe Al thinks sealevel will be lower where he lives. variable geoidal height due to microgravity variations in the crust and upper mantle, and plus spatial changes in ocean salinity…
Miami Beach/Elevation
1.2 m
perhaps he’s planning on moving into the higher floors and pretending he’s living the good life in Venice, Italy.
sadly, Tipper left him, saying he was a louzy kisser, among other things.
I just searched this:
al gore invests in gondola company
No results 🙁
It feels so good to beat the DelusiSTANIS to a pulp like this …. then kick them when they are unconscious….
I have decided to reward myself with
https://www.playhugelottos.com/uploads/newsThumbnails/1348754963.jpg
Dear Ms Tverberg;
You state, “1. GW models are all based on the assumption that far more fossil fuels can be extracted than is actually the case. This is an assumption of all MSM articles, in general. Climate scientists have no expertise in this areas. Even the low range FF estimates of future warming are quite possibly too high.”
This part: “GW models are all based on the assumption that far more fossil fuels can be extracted than is actually the case. This is an assumption of all MSM articles, in general. Climate scientists have no expertise in this areas. ”
Is absolutely, perfectly true. Climate scientists do not understand, and likely have no interest in peak affordable oil. They project FF extraction and burning through the end of the century as if that makes sense while it certainly does not.
This part: “Even the low range FF estimates of future warming are quite possibly too high.”
Is not correct, for several reasons:
1. You are well aware of the fact that publishers demand a positive last chapter at the end of a book, or a positive last paragraph at the end of an article. That bias and demand forces every climate scientist that wants to keep working to put a positive spin on their findings.
2. The reports from the IPCC are reviewed – and edited – by bureaucratic functionaries from the US, and Saudi Arabia. Those people change the text of those documents to minimize the effects of AGW.
3. The effect of the CO2 being emitted today will accumulate for 40 years. We are seeing the effect of the CO2 that was emitted 40 years ago.
4. The fact that China is burning coal like it’s going out of style – ahem – means that tons and tons of SO2 and particulates are being pumped into the air daily. That sulfur and dirt (which is airborne and spreads worldwide) reflects sunlight. If China stopped burning coal tomorrow, the temp of the planet would jump as much as 1.5C in just a few weeks. So, 0.8C is the current warming + 1.5C is per my math 2.3C that is baked in.
5. I have talked about the methane hydrates before. Assuming the Tverbergian collapse happens soon, that 2.3C temperature rise will not just go away. The oceans are slow to respond to warming, and when they reach the triple point of methane hydrate stability. It will melt. Not may melt, WILL melt. 2.3C gets you 4C, and 4C gets you 12C. At some point between 4C and 12C life on the surface of the Earth will become impossible for mammals of any size.
Maybe so. I am not convinced. If you are trying to prove that a new problem (GM) is the real problem, you don’t go out of your way to be conservative. We likely won’t be around in 40 years to find out.
https://orig00.deviantart.net/691b/f/2009/199/0/f/obsolete_by_satansgoalie.jpg
It will melt. Not may melt, WILL melt. 2.3C gets you 4C, and 4C gets you 12C. At some point between 4C and 12C life on the surface of the Earth will become impossible for mammals of any size.
Pintada, did you work all this out for yourself, or have you been relying on the findings of some higher authority such as God or Guy McPherson?
Just askin’, as your claim seems extraordinary enough to require extraordinary evidence.
Incidentally, the warmest era on Earth over the past 200 million years was probably the early Eocene about 55 to 50 million years ago. Estimates of the probable global temperature during that period are that it was 12 to 14 degrees C higher than during the present era, and according to the fossil record, mammals of many sizes flourished then. You do accept the validity of fossils being that old, I take it?
Don’t these inconvenient facts put a dent in your faith that mammalian life will become impossible under such conditions?
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5f/All_palaeotemps.svg/1760px-All_palaeotemps.svg.png
Tim … you need to keep in mind when reading Pintada’s comments… that I have thrashed him to the edge of life twice now — once over the spent fuel ponds and now over ____ _____.
He is in very poor shape … resembling Hawking …. without the math skills….
https://i2-prod.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article10728303.ece/ALTERNATES/s615b/Stephen-Hawking-symposium.jpg
So don’t expect much in the way of logic — there was not much to begin with
Poor Pintada… boo hoo…. 🙂
An Inconvenient Truth 2 – A film about the world getting better, is a humorous and hopeful discovery of Sweden’s’ eco solutions. Ranging from 100% renewable energy housing developments to cars running on ethanol and biogas, the film is a feel good moment for environmentalists.
Science Fiction has gotten pretty boring these days.
Useful post Sungr.
I am sitting here … asking myself…. now why would Al Gore buy a $9M house…. virtually at sea level….
When he claims that ___ ___ is going to cause a dramatic rise of the ocean within 10 years.
Who can help me to understand what he was thinking?
What is an effective way to break down a person’s cognitive dissonance in order to make them open to new ideas?
Reactance is a tendency to react defensively to a perceived threat to individual beliefs and preferences. Reactance happens between people quite frequently. Many times, when I perceive that someone has an agenda to disregard or change my beliefs, I shut down right away and have on some occasions become rude and unreasonable towards the person. Ask the Jehovah’s Witnesses who often lurk around my bus stop.
So, if someone detects that you want to make them open up to new ideas, interpersonal reactance on their part may be a problem.
Intrapersonal (inner) reactance happens, too. This is much the same as interpersonal reactance, except the entire process happens on different levels of an individual rather than between different people. Theoretically, inner reactance could be one of the causes of cognitive dissonance.
If you at one point decided that you enjoyed partying hard, eventually you may reach a point in which you wish to cut back. But you originally decided to party for a variety of reasons. Partying met some kind of need, whether it be social or anesthetic or whatever else. It was your decision. If someone else questioned your decision to party hard, you may have responded by closing off to them and justifying your behavior (reactance). And if you question your own decision and want to alter your behavior, parts of you may yet still respond by closing off to yourself and justifying your behavior (inner reactance).
The closing off of, in both instances, makes receptivity to new ideas unlikely.
So what’s the answer?
As Adb Ul-Rahman Lomax points out, compassion is a magnificent place to start. Compassion, understanding, and a willingness to identify merit in the other person’s point of view. And not only to identify, but also to express that you see the merit. A little acknowledgement goes a long way.
It’s a poetic irony that in order to be receptive to change, it is often necessary to accept that which is desired to change.
It is fruitless to declare war on ourselves and others, because what is struck will generally strike back. If we lunge at the beliefs of others, their beliefs will usually hide within impenetrable fortresses. If we accept the beliefs of others and show interest and compassion, being able to differentiate our own ideas from theirs, then conversation is possible.
https://www.quora.com/What-is-an-effective-way-to-break-down-a-persons-cognitive-dissonance-in-order-to-make-them-open-to-new-ideas
Compassion? COMPASSION????
Ok I can do that.
Poor GWWW Grooopies…. I really feel for you …. I shed tears when I see you mired so deep in your delusions and stewpidity…. unable to escape no matter how obviously wrong you are….
I have trouble sleeping when I think of how you struggle with accepting facts and logic…. if I cutting my finger off would help you with this you know I would….
I feel your pain when you are unable to recognize that you are being played… by Al G.ore and these other charlatans… it’s as if I too feel like I am ment ally r e tar ded too…. what a horrible feeling!!!
I feel your stewpidity … your id ioc…y…. your gullibility…. your im be cility….
Let’s have a moment shall we….. I know everyone is hurting inside … so let’s join hands and sing a song ….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vo9AH4vG2wA
https://i.pinimg.com/736x/e8/de/a8/e8dea8a10abc4877d5c100d230a340fb–shedding-tears-peace-maker.jpg
Boo Hoo… Boo F789ing Hoo….. I weep for your idi ocy…..
http://upliftconnect.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/CompassionateHands.jpg
DJ says:
January 11, 2018 at 11:39 am
As I wrote the defence was discarded about 15-20 years ago. Before that there were probably about 1M vs 2M.
Do you remember when Soviet won the afghan war?
Hello, Sweden had an army of 1 million 20 years ago. Out of a population of 9 million. Ha, ha, ha. Great joke. 😉
No, Soviets lost that one. America’s not doing too well there, either. But hey, the Russians won in Syria. 🙂
the Russians won in Syria?
why hasn’t that been in the (USA) news reports?
she said things will be better when she’s POTUS.
She will…
Make America Wonderful Again.
100% Renewable Energy and no __ ___ing by the end of her first term.
Guaranteed!
Yes, after hopey-changey, there’s a need for new age-y.
“Ha, ha, ha. Great joke. 😉”
Yes, 50k+ did military service (värnplikt) every year. Placed from 19 years old to about 35. A very few professionals and also “hemvärnet”, people to old or young to be placed for war.
1 million man standing army? Sweden?
https://media.giphy.com/media/O81fowdDGB7W0/giphy.gif
This is a GREAT documentary … have you seen it yet???
Complete bunk.
Great – we have our first convert.
Welcome on board!
Go and watch a thermometer.
GGGG WWWW Grooopies really need to watch this short interview…..
‘Why are your predictions totally wrong?’
Gore: ‘We’ve seen a lot of progress in renewable resources and that is why I got it wrong’ (obviously implying that solar and wind power have mitigated the impact of GGG WWWWW)
‘We need more renewable energy’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=39&v=ijQwncmQJdA
Sorry Al… but NO – there has been NO progress.. we are burning MORE coal than ever:
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2017/12/iea-primary-energy-suppy-1973-and-2015.png
And NO – solar and wind are not helpful at all.
Come on people – WAKE THE F789 up!!!! — he is pumping ‘renewable’ energy as The Solution to our Woes.
We all know that ‘renewable’ energy is not a solution. We all know that ‘renewable’ energy is NOT what caused him to be totally wrong.
Are you people really that STTTTUUUUPID????
You are being played. You are being taken for a ride.
And then we have this:
An Inconvenient Truth 2 – A film about the world getting better
An Inconvenient Truth 2 – A film about the world getting better, is a humorous and hopeful discovery of Sweden’s’ eco solutions. Ranging from 100% renewable energy housing developments to cars running on ethanol and biogas, the film is a feel good moment for environmentalists.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVmeQFhYqNk
The world is getting better…. there there now ….no need to panic….. we have EVs… and solar and wind power everywhere now …. and ICE vehicles will all be gone very soon…. just a few more years to a green perpetual utopia ….
Hello???? Hello????? Is anyone home??????
This is a HO AX…… Do I need to embed the truth in a large calibre bullet and fire it through your foreheads to get through to you??????
Holy F789…. I can’t believe people cannot see this … refuse to see this….
Well… enjoy the film F789 tards. Have some popcorn with your kool-aid… it’s hopium flavoured
http://food.fnr.sndimg.com/content/dam/images/food/fullset/2016/12/8/1/JE0205H_Cacio-Pepe-Popcorn_s4x3.jpg.rend.hgtvcom.616.462.suffix/1481216491893.jpeg
who’s Al Gore?
actually, I could ask Oprah.
Al Gore, Oprah, and Elon Musk walk into a bar. The bartender says, “What’ll ya have?”
Just because Al and Bill Mckibbin and others lie about how we can solve AGW – we can’t. Doesn’t mean that it does not exist. And just because we live in a society that is currently facing several unsolvable predicaments does not mean that those facts should be ignored.
Like I said — if Al Gore came clean and admitted ___ ___ was a ho.ax to distract from peak oil —- the ___ ___ would nail him to a cross.
Yep – the guy who put ___ ___ on the map is lying about it (basically admitting it is fake) — says the ___ ___ grooopie.
But that doesn’t matter.
Do you expect me to take you seriously ever again — after what has to be the most inane comment ever to grace the FW site.
https://nataliaantonova.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/cannot-handle-the-hysterical-laughter.gif
Love this one!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7Nru8ACIAIpo-d.jpg
http://aaronsenvironmental.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/AlGoresNewHouse.jpg
Look at how this lights up the comments https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-11/trump-why-do-we-want-people-these-shithole-countries-come-here
It’s working Don! Keep it up!
Carrier sends jobs to Mexico despite Trump deal
https://www.reuters.tv/v/fvq/2018/01/11/rescuers-look-for-survivors-in-deadly-california-mudslides
Baby Doomer – Many think we are in oil surplus. However, if countries like Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Nigeria, Venezuela, Ghaza, Cuba even Mexico and a score of others – allowed all the energy they need to prosperity, there will be no less than 20 million b/d shortage in the oil global market!
Even Australia is in chronic shortage of fossil fuels, having its massive FF resources exclusively dedicated to exports (Industrial metal smelters are systematically shut down, Toyota, GM and Ford have all closed down their Oz factories).
Thank to non-stop conflicts in oil-rich countries that made those people remain into the pre-industrial age, off of oil reality!
The rest of the world should be thankful to Winston Churchill who figured out earlier than 1914 how to deal with oil-rich nations in the Middle East, and to the 1990’s orchestrated collapse of the Soviet Union’s artificial lab experiment, which has spared another 5 million b/d after the decommissioning of the Soviet industrial base.
The Guardian writes (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/apr/19/iraq.arts):
Then, back in 1920, Iraq had the population of just 2 million people!
What oil surplus talked about? It is just a POMC (Peak Oil Musical Chairs) reality!
“Churchill was particularly keen on chemical weapons, suggesting they be used “against recalcitrant Arabs [in Iraq, soon after the 1914 British invasion] as an [entertaining circus?] experiment”. He dismissed objections as “unreasonable”. “I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes _ [to] spread a lively terror _” In today’s terms, “the Arab” needed to be shocked and awed. A good gassing might well do the job.
Excellent… even more entertaining than Trump. Bring Back Winston!
BTW – by any standard… Churchill is a war criminal… and deserves a position next to Hitler.
Bengal famine
In 1943, India, then still a British possession, experienced a disastrous famine in the north-eastern region of Bengal – sparked by the Japanese occupation of Burma the year before.
At least three million people are believed to have died – and Churchill’s actions, or lack thereof, have been the subject of criticism.
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-29701767
http://images.indianexpress.com/2017/03/churchill-hitler759.jpg
I can’t understand how the british empire can have such a good reputation. Also irish famine and that little slave thing.
Britain reminds me of a women who was once a ravishing beauty …. who has grown old, gnarly… and miserable …. because nobody pays her any attention….
Amazing how so many Brits take such great pride in their empire….. it would be like Germans claiming that Hitler was great….
“If other countries of the world had all they needed, we would have a huge deficit of oil.” That is a very good point! I agree. This is why surpluses of oil point to affordability problems. In fact, the countries using oil have tended to keep the others from using it. It is very important to civilization. This is a map of oil consumption per capita that I found.
https://www.indexmundi.com/map/?v=91000
Look at Russia. The data says 15 bbl/1000people, while the map indicates that Russia uses about the same as the US. Cant say what is going on.
Look at what the Legend says. It says 11 – 61 are all the same color. It is not a very good map in that respect. This map gives finer gradations.
http://burnanenergyjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/WorldMap_EnergyConsumptionPerCapita2010_v4_BargraphKey.jpg
All is based on energy exchange: coal for oil, nuclear for natural gas, human energy for coal etc. The reason for poverty of some countries is that some of the countries have very little energy for exchange, like Venezuela now, so they are imploding.
Oh wow – look at this psile!!!
https://images.theconversation.com/files/42709/original/6sh562kw-1393549698.jpg
https://images.theconversation.com/files/42708/original/2wpcp93j-1393549653.jpg
Yep, we’re going to hell. One way, or the other.
You first.
she said not until 2030.
I can live with that.
Written entirely without irony…
The Raw Materials That Fuel the Green Revolution
https://www.wind-watch.org/news/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/594066c08955f.image_.jpg
Records for renewable energy consumption were smashed around the world in 2017.
Looking at national and state grids, progress has been extremely impressive. In Costa Rica, for example, renewable energy supplied five million people with all of their electricity needs for a stretch of 300 consecutive days. Meanwhile, the U.K. broke 13 green energy records in 2017 alone, and California’s largest grid operator announced it got 67.2% of its energy from renewables (excluding hydro) on May 13, 2017.
The corporate front is also looking promising, and Google has led the way by buying 536 MW of wind power to offset 100% of the company’s electricity usage. This makes the tech giant the biggest corporate purchaser of renewable energy on the planet.
But while these examples are plentiful, this progress is only the tip of the iceberg – and green energy still represents a small but rapidly growing segment. For a full green shift to occur, we’ll need to 10x what we’re currently sourcing from renewables.
To do this, we will need to procure massive amounts of natural resources – they just won’t be the fossil fuels that we’re used to. …
you stopped just before the best part:
“GREEN METALS REQUIRED
A major theme of the conference is sustainable energy – and the math indeed makes it clear that to fully transition to a green economy, we’ll need vast amounts of metals like copper, silicon, aluminum, lithium, cobalt, rare earths, and silver.
These metals and minerals are needed to generate, store, and distribute green energy. Without them, the reality is that technologies like solar panels, wind turbines, lithium-ion batteries, nuclear reactors, and electric vehicles are simply not possible.”
green metals! bwahahahaha!
so load up those giant diesel powered mammoth trucks!
They forgot to mention ion drives. “Green”, the new “sustainable”. Lol.
Walmart is abruptly closing 63 Sam’s Club stores and laying off thousands of workers
http://www.businessinsider.com/walmart-suddenly-closes-sams-club-stores-2018-1
Walmart Suddenly Shutters Numerous Sam’s Club Stores without Notice, Chaos Breaks out on Twitter
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/01/11/walmart-suddenly-shutters-numerous-sams-club-stores-without-notice-chaos-breaks-out-on-twitter/
Walmart came out and announced they would raise their wages and give some bonuses out. And Trump and media went nuts. While thy also close fifty Sams Club’s and lay off thousands. ..
Geez…They didn’t even give out notices to their workers. Just changed the locks and goodbye! We should turn these old Sams clubs into homeless shelters
This news should drive the stock markets higher.
bad = good
warm = cold
war = peace
You know when Wal Mart starts to collapse the end isn’t far off. This is deferentially a canary in a coal mine.
Walmart is closing 10% of its Sam’s Clubs. They are not keeping up with COSCO.
running low on electricity for Bitcoin etc:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/11/cryptocurrency-mining-puts-electrical-grid-of-small-washington-state-county-to-the-test.html
hey, I have an idea:
Burn More Coal…
bwahahahaha.
Who is protesting?
Tunisians from different backgrounds are taking to the streets, though most are young. They include large numbers of students and the unemployed, many in towns that are in the neglected interior of Tunisia, away from the wealthier coastal areas.
Why are they protesting?
In the short term, demonstrators are angry at price and tax rises, imposed by the government to cut a soaring deficit and meet demands of international lenders. But protests are also fuelled by the lack of major economic improvement since the ousting in 2011 of the autocrat Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali. There is also widespread disillusionment with Tunisia’s political elite. One main protest group – Fesh Nestannew? (What Are We Waiting For?) – wants a return to the spirit of the 2011 revolt, demanding “employment, freedom, and national dignity”.
What are the authorities doing about it?
So far the response from politicians and officials has been to deploy thousands of police and even soldiers in some towns. There has been little attempt to engage with the grievances of the protesters and much effort to portray them as criminals. More than 300 arrests have been made. Hazem Chikhaoui, a 22-year-old student representative in Tunis, said the security forces were “aiming to terrorise and silence protesters through systematic violence”.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/11/who-protesting-tunisia-why-authorities-students-angry
https://tvcnews.tv/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/rising-oil-prices.jpg
Army deployed and more than 500 people arrested in demonstrations against price and tax rises that started at weekend
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/11/tunisia-hundreds-arrested-violent-protests-army-deployed-cities
Oil and gas countries are in a lot of trouble with prices as low as they have been. We should not be surprised by hikes in prices and protests.
sweet… ha ha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/11/california-climate-change-hypocrisy-exposed-by-big-oil-commentary.html
“Of course California is hardly alone in this hypocrisy. This is a national problem. The civil engineering organization and website StrongTowns.org has long documented the massive costs to our finances and environment caused by almost every state government’s reliance on car-centered infrastructure policies. That includes New York state, which has just decided to also sue the oil companies for the same claim of climate change science suppression.”
these states support the car-centric system, and they buy massive amounts of FF from the very companies they are suing!
irony, much?
U.S. Household Debt Reaches Record $13 Trillion: Watch Subprime Auto Loans
https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2017/11/14/debt-auto-loans/#33dea1f8ffbf
If loans aren’t rising, we have a big problem. A person has to go back to the data to put together graphs and percentage changes.
Americans’ household debt has surged by $605B this year
https://nypost.com/2017/11/26/new-yorkers-household-debt-has-surged-by-605b-this-year/
” I have written other articles regarding why debt is needed to pull the economic system forward.”
Will look at this later.
“This economic growth cannot be ‘fake growth’ either, where a debt Ponzi Scheme seems to allow purchases that real-life consumers cannot afford. Quite a bit of what is reported as world GDP today is of a very ‘iffy’ nature. If China builds a huge number of apartments that citizens cannot afford without subsidies, should these be counted as true GDP growth?”
If it isn’t true GDP growth, what would be a better example of it? Why?
“How about unneeded roads, built using the rising debt of the Japanese government?”
You mean they are using debt in a ‘worse’ way than they otherwise could?
“Or recycling performed around the world, because it makes people ‘feel good,’ but really requires substantial subsidies?”
I can understand why this isn’t ‘real,’ but am less clear what a real alternative to recycling (etc,) could be.
‘but am less clear what a real alternative to recycling (etc,) could be’
Just keep digging up new resources and making new stuff…. then toss it into the landfill where earth recycles it
“I can understand why this isn’t ‘real,’ but am less clear what a real alternative to recycling (etc,) could be.”
The only alternative is to go back to a one way road for all those raw materials, continue to load up landfill sites (which aren’t as easy to find now and are still being filled up with non-recyclable items), ignore the damage it does to the environment, especially oceans and be the irresponsible species we are always being blamed for being. To stop recycling would be tantamount to tossing in the proverbial towel and giving up.
We are going to continue to recycle and electrify energy and we’ll see if it can work or not, but we aren’t going to ignore environmental concerns for the sake of a lower cost of energy. Whatever comes this way as a result will be what we have to make adjustments to even if they are wholesale changes or reductions in living standards. Come hell or high water when you know what it is you need to do, you do it and figure out how to overcome the problems as you go along.
Are we running out of room for our garbage?
As I was trying to cram a greasy pizza box down my apartment building’s garbage chute yesterday, I couldn’t help but wonder: How much room can we possibly have for garbage in this country? When will the United States run out of landfill space?
Not for centuries. There are plenty of reasons to cut down on waste, but the amount of space left in the ground isn’t a pressing concern. Won’t you join the Lantern on a brief tour of American trash?
From the 1920s until the mid-1970s, most of our household garbage ended up in dumps—nothing more than manmade craters scattered across the country. They were, in many ways, an environmental disaster. All the liquids in the decomposing trash filtered down to the bottom of the hole and, from there, into the soil and groundwater.
This gloop, known as “leachate”, could have contained any number of hazardous chemicals, especially in an era when few people thought much about what they tossed. The rotting garbage also released significant amounts of methane, a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide, straight into the atmosphere.
When Congress passed the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act in 1976, it fundamentally changed the way we store trash. The law and its subsequent amendments require disposal facilities to line their gigantic trash holes with layers of either plastic or clay, or both. These liners, and a subterranean piping system, collect the leachate, which is then hauled to sewage treatment plants. Landfill operators must also install pipes to vent the methane gas, which is burned off—reducing the superpotent greenhouse gas to mere carbon dioxide. (Some facilities take advantage of the heat created in the process, using it to power turbines or turn the methane directly into liquid natural gas.)
Though the 1976 law was a huge win for the soil and groundwater, there are drawbacks. Technologically advanced landfills—the word dump now applies only to old-school holes in the ground—are more expensive to design and operate. To make up for these costs, landfill operators began to emphasize economies of scale. Rather than having lots of tiny dumps scattered everywhere, we now have a small number of mega-landfills. In 1986, there were 7,683 dumps in the United States. By 2009, there were just 1,908 landfills (PDF) nationwide—a 75 percent decline in disposal facilities in less than 25 years.
http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/the_green_lantern/2011/02/go_west_garbage_can.html
They had to go and spoil everything! 🙂 Capital turns everything to gold. Reminds me of someone…
I thought that nuclear waste could be distributed throughout the extent of their host countries, buried deep in tiny canisters whose respective exposure wouldn’t kill many. So the whole country would be at some risk, but less than if you dispose of everything in one place.
You know what thought did?
He thought he farted… but actually .. he sh it himself.
But that’s what we all would be doing if there is no plan of any sort. The alternative to thought may be certainty, which is damn stupid as well.
Cryptocurrencies: 1409
Market Cap: $704,894,570,338
apparently, the 1385 cryptocurrencies that the world had last week was not enough.
“Over $100 billion wiped off global cryptocurrency market following talk of South Korea trading ban”
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/11/bitcoin-ripple-ethereum-prices-fall-after-south-korea-trading-ban-talk.html
Things go up and down fast—-
It is as good as it gets with the market we have.
1410
Sort of like adding more debt.
Brexit could cost nearly 500,000 UK jobs: study
https://phys.org/news/2018-01-brexit-uk-jobs.html
WTI 64.64
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/block/1
Gasoline was 2.79 where I live today!
Brent $70.05…
$2.79 gasoline is incredibly cheap…
I burn about one gallon round trip for work…
while I wouldn’t want to pay anywhere near $27.90 for one gallon, it would still be well worth burning that gallon to have my job 15 miles away.
oh, is that controversial?
This is Gas Buddy’s take on the situation. The West Coast, Alaska and Hawaii are always highest.
http://www.gasbuddy.com/GasPriceMap?z=4
It’s approaching $3.00 in Oregon as I type this.
that’s a very inexpensive product relative to the benefits it provides.
what does a 20oz bottle of water cost per gallon?
Except that many times we “just burn it for fun”. There is no real benefit to society by driving to the ski slopes.
Most activities we engage in have no more benefit to society than driving to a mountain — being pulled to the top by machines…. and repeating that over and over….
yes, for fun!
I occasionally drive out of my way because I have some great music playing and I want to hear the complete piece…
car stereo volume at 40… that is max…
huh?
what did you just say?
More people should be doing that
great new article gail and it is interesting to see the price of oil spiking instead of dropping what does this tell us supply is dropping faster than demand we are about to see higher prices of oil which will translate to higher inflation as alan greenspan predicted we are entering stagflation this also tells us why the fed are raising rates they are simply acting in a predictable manner they know that the world is on the downslope of peak oil which means a permanent high price for oil prices this was all planned folks there are 140 days until the final stockmarket crash which will bring in the planned currency reset expect a very high permanent oil price which will allow the remaining barrels to be extracted to set up the renewable energy dream for a fraction of the world’s population what will happen to the rest of us we will be probably be living on a fraction of our current carbon footprint in a contracting economy we shall see some huge changes in the years to come such as no one being able to afford to run a car, family members moving in with well to do family ,education disappearing, paper currency replaced by digital currency, very high costs for food and health services, a wealth transfer from the stockmarket to precious metals and commodities elimination of the middle class, unless you play your cards right there is still time to protect yourself from whats coming learn to live on less learn to grow food learn to heal yourself naturally get some silver its still cheap and tell your family and friends the truth even if it results in them banning you from telling them when the system finally resets and all your well to do family members lose 99% of their wealth they may finally turn to you for help or give up on life.are you willing to gamble your life and your families lives that there is no plan B, that is the only choice we have make your choice wisely if you and your immediate family want to be around in ten years time.
why would I scare or even just worry anyone by telling them that a crash is coming at the end of May?
to be clear: I think that you are flat out wrong.
but, it seems no one is going to change your mind, right?
so, I will just say that it’s pretty sad to read about what you are going through…
it’s some kind of self imposed inner turmoil…
well, good luck with that…
I think you’ll still be posting here in June.
ps: the oil price is NOT spiking…
it’s creeping higher very slowly.
d day is first of june 2018 to be precise
again, it’s very sad that you are saying this…
the apt word is delusional…
please take care of yourself…
again, I’m sure you will be posting here after June 1st…
peace be with you.
I think you have been reading too many precious metals sites.
Oil prices have never stayed very high for very long in the past; it will be hard to for them to go very high, or to stay very high, for very long now. If interest rates rise, this will add to the effect. Recession will send oil prices down after a few months.
A lot of people have not understood that our economy is a networked system. Oil prices affect job availability as well as the cost of goods. Employment goes down as oil prices go up. This is a very bad combination.
I won’t go into the growing food issue. It is difficult to do, without a functioning economy.
Hi Gail,
Out of interest, what is your take on precious metals ? I do believe they might be a decent store of value, at least in the initial stages of collapse. Absent outright confiscation or extreme “capital gains” tax (by the way there are some european nations that have 0% capital gains tax on gold/bullion) The case for gold to hold purchasing power in inflationary times is very strong & clear. Perhaps less well known is that it could actually perform decent in deflation conditions as well; if too many loans were to turn delinquent / companies go bust, then banks get into trouble as well and various other investments such as stocks / corporate bonds & real estate are likely to tank as well. In such a scenario people might consider looking for other venues to park money. in a deflationary spiral the adage that “return OF capital is more important than return ON capital” seems to ring true to me. I’m not advocating to go “all-in” on precious metals, but some allocation seems prudent.
Similarly what is your take on crypto-currencies ? As far as i understand them, the blockchain seems to be mainly a tracking tool. Although bitcoin limits the total amount of tokens with complex “mining algorithms”, anybody could create new cryptocurrencies and evidently they are (ethereum, ripple etc…), so as a store of value i reckon they are very dangerous. They are touted to have high utility as medium of exchange & would reportedly deal a blow to the “monopolies” of banks, but frankly i doubt that. Are banks making much money on regular savings & deposit accounts ? I don’t think so ? For most other financial products you would still need an intermediary, albeit that the currency has changed. Additionally the question needs to be asked “utility for whom ?”, surely not the individual small saver who is perfectly capable of tracking is own savings, but certainly for the surveillance state that wants to track everything.
Thanks in advance
The issue is that things change quickly. As long as the system hangs together, and major recession doesn’t overtake they system, then prices of metals can rise with oil prices. But once the system starts to “break,” there is a problem of anything holding value. Oil prices will drop, as will precious metal prices.
Ultimately, the problem will be that there will not be enough production of products of all kinds for citizens. There will be many different people who would like a share of these products: those holding precious metals, those holding annuities from insurance companies, those who are getting government pensions, such as Social Security, and of course the workers who make the goods themselves.
It seems to me that it is the workers who make the goods should get first priority, or the system will fail altogether. I really don’t know for certain. Maybe there is a clean break, and we go from a high price, to not really working well at all.
I personally believe in diversification. Silver looks like it “might” be a store of value. It probably is a worthwhile place to put some money, if that is your interest. But I wouldn’t really count on it saving any of us. The real question will be how many goods and services are available to buy.
t he economy is a networked system that is in a flux of diminishing returns where job availability will get lower and lower think less of everything but the system will continue think of it if there was a cutback in car triips of 90 % that means the system could work with a lot less oil this is a realistic outlook of how the future will shape itself into. whats happening now is a transition into negative interest rates expectations of future entitlements will change into the real reality think 99% loss.
“set up the renewable energy dream for a fraction of the world’s population ”
What will stop the rest of us from smashing their PV panels?
rhe law
Who will enforce that law if only a small fraction are “in”?
fast eddy mantra of burn more coal is happening in Germany
Historic German church demolished to make way for brown coal mine
The demolition of a historic church to clear the way for the expansion of an open-cast mine this week has outraged locals in western Germany and environmentalists, as politicians moot giving up their own clean energy targets.
Built in large part by local people and consecrated in 1891, St Lambertus church in Immerath, North Rhine-Westphalia state, was ripped down by diggers’ hydraulic arms on Monday and Tuesday, leaving a heap of rubble where the neo-Roman nave and twin towers once stood.
Police brought in reinforcements Monday to manage a crowd of protesters who held up the demolition for five hours, local newspaper Rheinische Post reported.
“Those who destroy culture destroy people too,” a banner held up by Greenpeace demonstrators read.
Immerath and its church have been doomed since 2013, when Germany’s constitutional court found that there was an overwhelming public interest in allowing energy firm RWE to expand its nearby Garzweiler open-cast brown coal mine.
Almost all the 900 villagers have long since quit their homes, among a total of 7,900 people from the region making way for the mine, while the Catholic church was deconsecrated in preparation for its destruction.
The demolition has drawn attention to the nation’s mining of brown coal, as calls grow to reduce greenhouse emissions by ending use of the cheap but polluting fuel.
Germany has massively expanded renewable energy in recent years, part of its “energy transition” away from fossil fuels and nuclear power.
Environmentalists point out that at times of peak production energy firms now pay neighbouring countries to take surpluses generated from coal off their hands.
But power companies argue they need coal capacity as a stopgap for times when output from solar and wind is low.
Meanwhile, politicians are loath to impose an end to coal, an industry that still employed almost 20,000 miners in 2015 according to official figures.
As the towers fell in Immerath, talks between Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives and their historic rivals the Social Democrats were getting underway on renewing a left-right “grand coalition” that has ruled since 2013.
One of the first proposals to leak from the talks was giving up Germany’s 2020 goal of cutting carbon dioxide emissions by 40 percent compared with 1990’s level.
“Who is fighting for an exit from coal or a real reduction in CO2 emissions? No-one that I know of,” prominent Greens party figure Robert Habeck told news agency DPA.
https://www.thelocal.de/20180110/historic-church-demolished-to-make-way-for-brown-coal-mine
so… good news from Germany!
thanks!
oh…
and…
Burn More Coal… we need to sustain the energy per capita plateau!
I think that it is much more likely that wind and solar are causing problems with neighbors regarding excess supply, rather than coal. But I don’t expect environmentalists would understand that.
Wind and solar are making it harder and harder to run the grid. Unfortunately, something else is needed. Germany doesn’t have natural gas of its own, so it goes after brown coal. Such coal is of fairly low quality. So old churches get knocked down.
Actually the coal is not of low quality. We Germans have a perfect system for open pit mining with very large machines. You should see the industry in eastern germany which is way better than that at the Rhein region. The coal is used for generating electricity and heat. The heat is distributed in towns. The mine is fully operated on electricity to avoid fire. They need 20% of the generated electricity to operate the mine.
So thanks to logistics they can have very cheap electrity. But the CO2 amount is huge!
What I should say is “low energy density,” rather than low quality. The coal is still expensive to transport long distances, because you need a lot of it to get a given amount of it. It sounds like that heat from the coal is used for “cogeneration.” This is a good way of using it. (Also using it fairly close to where it is mined, so the high transport cost is not an issue.)
One thing you should be aware of is that where intermittent energy from wind and solar is added, it tends to make cogeneration less competitive, because some of the coal-fired-electricity needs to be sold for negative or zero rates. So it tends to drive cogeneration out of business, without subsidies. This is something you need to watch out for. Paul Frederik Bach writes about this issue in Denmark. This is part of why wind and solar are fake solutions.
Big power plants are close to the mines, as you said, to avoid transport. Then each town has a so called “Heizkraftwerk”, providing electricity and heat for housing. Remember, european countries are small, coal is transported by rail, which is operated by electricity.
What is happening now, to get away from the coal, power plants are switching to gas. Very cheap at the moment. And the wind energy that is too much, will be used in systems called “power to heat”. Meaning, big tanks of water are heated up and then the heat is used to warm houses. (Fernwärme)
But if it works out at the end, who knows?
I will look for Paul-Frederik Bach’s book.
Get ready for even more record cold temperatures around the world.
another great article from gail
Penrith, NSW, an outlier suburb of Sydney, was the hottest place on Earth a few days ago.
Power outages and fire bans as Sydney swelters through hottest day since 1939
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/heatwave.gif
Pretty much how it felt to be outside…
Excellent movie! To bad the good guys lost.
I find the notion that somehow Sydney didn’t experience its hottest day on record a bit annoying. Since the town of Richmond, which is not part of Sydney, was used to dilute the statistics. A complete crock, especially coming from such a leftie media outlet as SBS
Power outages again. We will need to watch over the next few months how much more of this problem occurs.
See what happens when a country moves off of coal-fired power generation …. they need to Burn More Coal…. and they will get record cold temperatures.
How many billions of tonnes of fossil fuels have we burned since 1939?
And still we can’t break the 1939 temperature record.
Weird that.
FE, it might surprise you that we get our coldest temperatures during the warmest years here in SE Australia. We had a record low of -6c in 2017, yet the fruit trees have flowered earlier than the average and fruit ripened earlier than average again last and this year.
The record cold comes because of unusually dry conditions at that time of early winter, another aspect changing.
While you seem to point out record colds snaps, you seem to inconveniently not see that ‘hot’ records out number ‘cold’ records by 3/1 over the last decade or so.
That is an indication of something warming ON AVERAGE.
Mind you I agree that it is irrelevant as collapse will get (most of) us first.
“Because we have the security policy situation we have today, we say that we will make our planning at government level to face a security crisis for three months,” says Eva-Lena Fjällström, Deputy Director of the County Administrative Board in Västerbotten.
Previously, it has been said that citizens will be able to cope for three days in the event of a crisis. Now it’s extended to one week.
“I think it’s important that you can manage yourself. Society has changed and is vulnerable and complex with many dependencies. It can easily be a disturbance so we have to manage ourselves, “says Eva-Lena Fjällström.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-10/swedish-government-warning-citizens-be-prepared-least-week-without-help
20 foot containers anyone?
Putinphobia
Partly silly Putin-phobia,(does he really have his eye on Scandinavia?) but also partly true.
This is the great irony: global JIT with its vast supply chains, vulnerable to state and private hackers, let alone disruptions to the financial system, means that we all -if prudent – have to have domestic food and water reserves like a good householder of the 14th century……
And candles (although headtorches with batteries are much more convenient).
Back in the dark ages, like before 1999, Sweden was capable to be self-sufficient and also maybe withstand a Soviet invasion.
When the russian became good guys the defense was discarded. Saved a lot of money.
Building it back up is to expensive.
JIT and europe. Putin could turn off the gas a cold winter and within months we want him to liberate us.
Sorry, there’s no way Sweden could have withstood a Soviet invasion back in the day. Especially as it was neutral, and had no nuclear deterrent.
Of course depends on how you define withstand and how much else Soviet has on its plate, the plan was more or less to give away 2/3 of the country on day 1.
Smaller, poorer and less prepared countries managed with hittills warfare.
Anyway, some years ago the commander announced Sweden could maybe defend its largest Island. For a week. I think he was optimistic.
This is a comparison of forces between one of the successor states to the USSR, the Russian Federation, and Sweden.
Please note that the balance of forces before the Soviet Union collapsed was even wider.
http://armedforces.eu/compare/country_Sweden_vs_Russia
So, tell us how Sweden could ever have prevented its almost instantaneous conquest, by the “Red Menace”?
As I wrote the defence was discarded about 15-20 years ago. Before that there were probably about 1M vs 2M.
Do you remember when Soviet won the afghan war?
As with the English and the Vikings, maybe one could buy off Putin with some rather nice gold watches? I believe he has a taste for them.
Or perhaps he’s like a Swedish estate for some of his bare-chested hunting expeditions?
What use does Putain have for Sweden? Stealing our gender identity experts?
We are just land area on the way to the atlantic. He could just peacefully pass through, like the not-sees in WW2.
“Stealing our gender identity experts?”
maybe just the blonde ones.
“Plans to raise interest rates and sell QE securities, when the economy is already “at the edge,” are playing with fire.”
The reason why they are doing that is because those pulling the economic strings at the Fed need to pretend our problems from the 08/09 mortgage meltdown debacle are behind us, even if that isn’t exactly true. And with that stated, let’s all congratulate Janet Yellen for getting out of there before the walls cave in and those QE securities need to raise their ugly head again.
Congrats Janet.
Thanks Gail for this fantastic provoking article;
A new POMC (Peak Oil Musical Chairs) reality doesn’t mean we turn all our cities everywhere to be another Raqqa, Mosul or Allepo, I hope.
There were seas of crude oil expended in building all above cities and towns (and many others) and sustaining their locals all last 90 years. What a crime and colossal loss if we now destroy them and kill their people, one place a time, bombarding them to the ground.
One should be careful what wishes for when keeping saying ‘collapse, collapse, collapse’! This how ‘Collapse’ looks like shown in the videos above, not a market crash, not a recession or depression, but total destruction.
‘Collapse’ should not be acceptable and submitted to as a majority-agreeable long-planned mission to deliberately take us all forcefully, one after another, into a pre-industrial age, no matter how Physics is evidently harsh and telling us that getting excess energy on Earth is a form of imprisonment and ‘The Tragedy of the Commons’ is, actually, having its roots in natural laws!
I hope everyone will agree with me that humanity CAN manage well without fossil fuels beside not demolishing everything was built in the past fossil fuel age, the way it has managed very well all the last 6 thousand years, and maybe more!
That Allepo video is particularly entertaining.
http://www.lovethispic.com/uploaded_images/20106-Farout-Man.gif
I hope everyone will agree with me that humanity CAN manage well without fossil fuels
https://previews.123rf.com/images/dskdesign/dskdesign1204/dskdesign120400536/13225131-business-man-writing-red-mark-on-strongly-disagree-choice-on-opinion-survey-form-Stock-Photo.jpg
strong in Darth Eddy, the sarc is…
“I hope everyone will agree with me that humanity CAN manage well without fossil fuels …”
No, sorry. And as Fast Eddy said … (as much as it pains me)
“I hope everyone will agree with me that humanity CAN manage well without fossil fuels”
Humanity in some collective sense, as in all or most humans presently living? No. Some subset will manage well enough to survive, but it will be painful.
Define humanity, because I find that word to be loaded and disgusting. 7.5 Billion humans who’ve ignorantly destroyed the entire planet while depleting its resources while simultaneously causing a collapse of the entire biosphere? Sounds heavenly for all the other creatures trying to occupy the same planet. Maybe a few hundred million could survive absent oil, but almost everyone else will perish a few days after the food and gas stop coming.
Nice article, Gail. One question – what if a decline in net energy consumption is due to an attempt to sustain energy production for longer? To use the bicycle analogy, it would be like the cyclist slowing down so that he doesn’t get tired.
“due to an attempt to sustain energy production for longer?”
An attempt to sustain? By who? (Or is it whom?)
Lots of people here and elsewhere have the idea that the global human society is “lead” by some secret group of geniuses. They think that somehow a rich person is actually smarter, or better able (for some other reason) to acquire and process information than us ordinary folks. Bunk.
This global civilization is a self-organizing system. There is no one in charge.
There are people, institutions, companies, etc. with great influence, but influence is not control.
“I care not what puppet is placed on the throne of England to rule the Empire, … The man that controls Britain’s money supply controls the British Empire. And I control the money supply.” Nathan Rothschild
“Once a nation parts with the control of its currency and credit, it matters not who makes the nation’s laws. … Until the control of the issue of currency and credit is restored to government and recognized as its most sacred responsibility, all talk of the sovereignty of parliament and of democracy is idle and futile.” — Mackenzie King, Canadian Prime Minister 1935-1948.
“I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated Governments in the civilized world no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men.” – Woodrow Wilson, after signing the Federal Reserve into existence
“Some of the biggest men in the United States, in the field of commerce and manufacture, are afraid of somebody, are afraid of something. They know that there is a power somewhere so organized, so subtle, so watchful, so interlocked, so complete, so pervasive that they had better not speak above their breath when they speak in condemnation of it.” ― Woodrow Wilson
https://katana17.files.wordpress.com/2017/05/realist-report-monika-schaefer-henry-ford-quote-on-the-protocols.jpg
blah blah blah
Does Janet Yellen control (CONTROL stup1d) Vladimir Putin?
There’s the rub…. the El ders empire is… (as the Empire of those men with that bad teeth and terrible food before them)….under threat… from both China and Russia….who see the El ders host country the US as weakened and vulnerable….
You will have noticed the trading of petroleum in Yuan…. that is like a big fat F789 You to the El ders.
Dangerous times
See if I got this right:
Elders (US and EU): The educated class. 80% Jews. 19% Christians (98% protestants, 2% Catholics). 0.5% Asians. 0.001% Muslins. The rest others.
F789: French Revolution
My ‘US internal’ take:
If, politically speaking, a nation politics move right, that nation will have a revolution sooner, in my opinion. Conservatives just cannot mange industrialization and their base as well as the liberals; and, even less when industrialization is closer to fail/collapse. Conservatives are better and stronger working locally. Locally suits conservatives better.
Now, the fail with the liberals is their religions as well. They even have a name for them: It’s called Technology and Environment.
However, technology and Environment exacerbate the problems, because technology leaves too many people behind. And Environment restricts federal land for use and exploration/exploitation.
Obama try to compensate these by giving chairs at the White Press Room for the Christian Right to appease to the right. A voice for religion nuts and hypocrites is not enough. Not sure how the liberals will divorce from these two issues/orthodoxies. Also the liberals have the immigration problem that they support.
Key problem for the liberals is that they have to change their approach on the environment and immigration to win most of the swing voters in 2020. Will they? I hope they do, because they have a better policy to stretch this current capitalist system longer than the conservatives.
Now US ‘external’ take: Arc ‘stretching’ wars.
“Hybrid Wars: The Indirect Adaptive Approach To Regime Change”…..unlike earlier researchers who have touched upon the topic, Andrew takes his work even further and uses the latest examples of the War on Syria and EuroMaidan to argue that the US has deployed a second, more dangerous step to its regime change toolkit. Hybrid Wars, as he labels them, are when the US meshes its Color Revolution and Unconventional Warfare strategies together………..
When a Color Revolution attempt fails, as it miserably did in Syria in 2011, the backup plan is to roll out an Unconventional War that builds directly upon the former’s social infrastructure and organizing methods. In the case of EuroMaidan, Andrew cites Western news sources such as Newsweek magazine, the Guardian, and Reuters in reminding everyone that in the days immediately prior to the coup’s successful completion, Western Ukraine was in full-scale rebellion against the central government and the stage was set for an Unconventional Syrian-esque War in the heart of Eastern Europe. Had it not been for the sudden overthrow of President Yanukovich, the US was prepared to take the country down the path of the Syrian scenario, which would have been its second full-fledged application of Hybrid War.
Thus, not only does Andrew describe the very essence of Hybrid Wars, but the final part of his book forecasts where he believes they may happen next. He introduces the groundbreaking concept of the Color Arc, a contiguous line of states stretching from Hungary to Kyrgyzstan and where the waging of Hybrid Wars would most seriously damage Russia’s national interests. This is the first time that Color Revolutions have ever been analyzed through a geopolitical prism, and it brings forth a completely different way of looking at this weapon’s utilization. This new paradigm is absolutely essential for understanding the US’ new approach to regime change and the form, both physical and geopolitical, it’s expected to take in the forthcoming years.
“Lots of people here and elsewhere have the idea that the global human society is “lead” by some secret group of geniuses.”
I agree. My question wasn’t about the Illuminati/elites creating a consumption decline, but whether such a decline might be purposefully undertaken by governments, populations etc. when the energy reality can no longer be denied or sugarcoated. And more importantly, whether it would work at least in the short term.
If we have continously falling affordability then it would kind of sort itself out. People will economically be forced to use less, i.e. car pool, take the bus or walk.
Ride sharing apps have gone mainstream.
Hey jupiviv;
You seem to be a smart guy, and I suspect that you have heard of the illuminati. I have it on good authority that this book – or series of books – is the source of the term.
https://smile.amazon.com/Illuminatus-Trilogy-Pyramid-Golden-Leviathan/dp/0440539811/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1515663444&sr=8-1&keywords=illuminatis+trilogy
I recommend it highly. Given the publication date one could call it groovy.
Masonic conspiracy theories have existed in American culture since at least the early 1800s. The working class anathema towards the liberal establishment isn’t new!
It’s now 2018 and there has been no fast collapse. Just a general breakdown with pockets of faster collapse.
So my question to people here is: how much time has to pass before you admit there is no fast collapse? Interesting question, isn’t it.
For instance, let’s say it’s 2030. Let’s say there has been nothing like a fast collapse, and you are still alive. Will you finally give up on the idea then, or will you double down, and say, any day now?
You may not like this, but my guess is that you people are fast collapsers, period. You will live every single day of your lives from here on out always with the belief that things are about to break down exponentially and it’s going to be lights out and game over for everybody, everywhere, all at once. It’s an interesting psychological belief that has no basis in reality, only in the way that your mind is interpreting various points of data.
We can see examples of collapse in the past that were slow to begin with, but then lurched into rapid collapse at or near the end. Sometimes a recovery may be apparent before the sharp crashing collapse. Examples would be the French Revolution, the Weimar Republic following the Wall Street crash, and Ancient Rome.
The current apparent global growth period is due to ultra low interest rates leading to enormous debt loads being taken on, without which it can be expected that the tight oil would not be flowing in such a sprightly manner, sharemarkets would be nowhere near their current or recent highs, residential real estate nominal values would not have rocketed upward to the extent that they have, and we would probably already be showing a global recession (or the continuation of the 2007 to 2009 recession).
“You may not like this, but my guess is that you people are fast collapsers, period.”
Collapse is happening right now, but its precise course is hard to predict. Too many unknown variables. Also, ‘fast’ is a relative term. Personally I think the effects of collapse will be palpable to everyone by 2025, but that may not be a fast collapse from someone’s perspective.
I will say this though: it is extremely unlikely that *all* of industrial civilisation will break down exponentially within a matter of days, or that the human race will go extinct due to the lack of BAU.
As Lemming John said to lemming Fred, while running,
“Everyone told us we will go over the cliff and kill ourselves by following this path”
“How wrong they all arrrrrrrrrrrrhhhh”.
It is clear to me that many know of our predicament of lower future energy, the basis of our civilization.
Everything that can possibly be done is happening to keep BAU going, but the toolbox is constantly shrinking. We currently have to have vast quantities of cheap money to keep the tight shale oil business producing, even though it is losing money. Without that cheap money (borrowing from the future), oil would be sky high already and the next crash/step down already underway.
As Dennis Meadows stated “Look around, this is what collapse looks like”.
Yes we are in the early stages of collapse, but we will get to the faster stages, depending on your situation and the country you live in, as too how long before it happens.
Go and tell a few pensioners in Greece how there is no fast collapse and wait for the response. I hope you can run fast!!
All complex structures decay slowly until they hit an inflection point where fast collapse takes over. Picture an old bridge: year after year, concrete falls away but it still stands, until suddenly in one big crash it all comes down.
Go tell Fast Eddy €650 a month is fast collapse. I hope you can run fast.
You really are totally f798ing re tar ded.
Welcome back, Dolph: the shrimps have missed you.
go, dolph go!
“You may not like this, but my guess is that you people are fast collapsers, period.”
c’mon, man!
you could call this bragging, but I put my self into a sorta middle category…
I don’t foresee The Collapse happening before 2030…
but, as others have pointed out…
there could be years of economic erosion which could weaken IC to the point where some critical aspect breaks and brings down the entire global JIT structure…
otherwise…
just having enough panic sweep through the population could also cause The Collapse…
and there wouldn’t even have to be a rational reason for the panic.
Yes, the mind seeks solutions. It seeks order, it looks for patterns. But there are really no order in this world, just chaos and randomness.
Many a COLLAPSISTANI has defined a set of rules that the economy must obey, or else a swift collapse ensues. But this is counteracted by 7.5 billion ants who want nothing else but to build a bigger heap. If some parts of the ant hill gets stomped on, many ants will die but most will go on.
good reasoning, Paul…
that should be made explicit:
that most of the 7+ billion persons in the world don’t want things to go downhill, and the majority of us will continue working to keep things going…
of course, OFW may be home territory for some who want The Collapse…
and soon.
So true. I think it is a wiring problem in the brain. They get an endorphin rush from contemplating and screaming about fast collapse. There have always been end of the worlders. Now, they have access to the internet.
Judging only from the species extinction rates and current state of global affairs and the environment, collapse is happening right now and it is accelerated. The reason no one is noticing is because WiFi still works.
Venezuela is inching closer to collapse
http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/09/news/economy/venezuela-oil-production/index.html
“It’s also a sign of mismanagement by the government of President Nicolas Maduro, who succeeded the late Hugo Chavez in 2013.”
very sad…
this shows how the leader of a country can sometimes bring great suffering to his people…
(putting aside the drop in oil revenues since 2014)…
very sad.
If oil was priced at $140…. Venezuela would not be in the news….
As it stands – you could drop the best government in the world into that country — and nothing would change.
Tango … I hope I didn’t cause your brain to explode.
That was some heavy logic to handle.
Take a Xanax and get some rest.
Dude I don’t even read most of your comments. They’re inane. Keep patting yourself on the back though plebe. Lmao.
Darth Eddy 1
Yoda Oscar 1
Enjoy your time in DelusiSTAN.
I if Martenson is a DelusiSTANi, then does that interview make Gail a DelusiSTANi associate or sympathizer?
🙂
This whole realm is a dream. The sooner you realize none of it matters the sooner you can go about having fun instead of wasting countless hours trying to impress people that don’t care. Go drink some scotch.
US oil well drilling and increased production has started, along with more fracking, but this oil won’t hit the market for 6 months. Look for oil to stay around $70 for another 6 months and then drop back to $50. As for depression cycles, i think rising home prices due to low interest rates is the main culprit for 2008 and 2000 recessions in USA and has little to do with energy consumption. Wage increases can’t keep up when home prices are doubling in 3 years. Never. The big move in oil prices came after these events, not before. If our treasury would just keep the prime at 5% and control illegal immigration we wouldn’t have had either 2000 or 2008 recession. We would have higher wages for working class and lower home prices, less bad debt.
I totally agree with Gail’s thinking on a global effect, but not on the USA.
“US oil well drilling and increased production has started, along with more fracking, but this oil won’t hit the market for 6 months. Look for oil to stay around $70 for another 6 months and then drop back to $50.”
so… more good news!
the good news just keeps on coming…
I can hardly stand it…
2018 is looking good!