Oil prices are now as high as they have been for three years. At this writing, Brent is $74.14 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate is at $68.76. These prices aren’t really very high, if a person looks at the situation from a longer term point of view than the last three years.
Figure 1. EIA chart of weekly average Brent oil prices, through April 13, 2018.
There is always a question of how high oil prices can go, and for how long.
In fact, we have many resources, of many kinds, whose prices of extraction keep rising higher. For example, obtaining fresh water for the world’s population keeps getting more and more expensive. Some parts of the world need to resort to desalination.
The world economy cannot withstand high prices for any of these resources for very long. Certainly, it cannot withstand high prices for a combination of necessary resources, because people need to cut back on other purchases, in order to afford the necessities whose prices are rising. This article is a guest post by another actuary, who goes by the pseudonym Shunyata. He explains in a different way why high resource prices cannot last, whether they are for oil, or natural gas, water, or even fresh air.
Dear Readers:
As you are no doubt aware, Gail has created a fantastic portfolio of blogs that explore our energy/financial/economic system, blogs that reveal many hidden or misunderstood aspects of our situation. I have found these discussions invaluable and share them wherever I am able; to solve our societal problems we need to develop a societal understanding of these issues.
The problem I face is helping other people, like my grandparents, get a foothold in this complex discussion. They can understand why oil might “run out,” but trying to understand the problematic financial situation is more difficult. I like metaphors to explain things – metaphors that allow my grandparents to understand the major elements of the situation. The metaphors I am using are to the oil industry. My grandparents have been following the oil situation for a long time. If a person has been following the oil industry, they may be helpful.
Below you will see how I explain Gail’s detailed writing to my grandparents in three short chapters. I hope you find this outline helpful in your own discussions, and I welcome your suggestions for improving the transparency of the story.
PRODUCTION COST
What if air had to be produced from wells and purchased by businesses and families to conduct their normal affairs?
If air is readily available in the ground, we can always extract what we need, making it easy for businesses and families to operate, or even to grow.
What happens if air becomes harder to extract? Perhaps the easy air is gone and we are increasingly looking at extracting deep water air, or air dissolved in shale stone.
Technology may be able to help; sometimes it can help a lot. But there is an immediate production cost shock in funding the development of that technology. This cost shock occurs whether we are talking about conventional air or solar-based renewable air.
There is a lower but permanent increase in production cost, both to fund the complexity of the technology (a deep water air rig just costs more to operate than a land rig) and to pay off any debt needed to build the new technological infrastructure. This cost increase occurs whether we are talking about conventional air or solar-based renewable air.
This cost increase is a permanent drag on the economy. Wages don’t rise to compensate for the higher cost of air. There is no substitute for air, and air simply isn’t available in the quantities the economy previously enjoyed – unless we stop doing things that we were doing before and redirect those resources toward producing the same amount of air we used to have.
DEBT
In a modern financial system, we use “money” as a proxy for economic activity. In a barter system, I can obtain goods and services by trading my work product for your work product. But carting around packages of finished goods is unwieldy, so we use “money” as a medium of exchange. If you and I are both willing to trade our finished goods for a symbolic piece of paper, then I can trade my goods and services for paper, bring that paper to you and trade it for your goods and services. This medium of exchange makes it easy to trade complex goods and services over long distances, or at different points in time.
How would lending work in this barter system? Someone could produce many finished goods, trade it for symbolic paper, but not immediately trade it for other goods, and “save” their paper for later. Debt is a process of borrowing someone else’s saved symbolic paper to purchase goods and services for themselves. This is helpful when I need to build a deep water air rig but don’t have the money myself. I can borrow someone else’s money and pay them back later, after my rig is bringing in revenue.
This simple borrowing process only works if some people aren’t consuming goods and services in the economy, and are instead allowing others to “borrow” their ability to consume. What if there isn’t enough saving to make large borrowing possible? What if I want to maximize economic activity and don’t want people to defer their own individual consumption?
If we want more funding than barter can provide, this can be done in more than one way:
[a] Money can be loaned into existence. This happens every day, when people decide to buy a car, and take out a loan for that purpose. Or people buy something with a credit card, and decide to carry a balance, rather than pay it off immediately. Nearly all loans today represent new money to the system.
[b] Governments can also obtain money by issuing bonds. Or they can simply issue money certificates without having any backing for the money.
Let’s call the process of adding funding to the economy, over and above what would be available by debt, “money printing.” In each of these cases, symbolic paper is added to the economy without previous work having been performed.
[1] Money printing can be helpful when it represents an investment in growing the overall economy. Investment in deep water air rigs will make air more available in the economy and will spur an expansion of economic activity. In this case the goods and services in the economy eventually “grow into” the amount of money that has been printed and the extra economic activity in the future is used to repay the debt.
[2] Money printing is unhelpful when it simply becomes someone’s savings (i.e. growing wealth inequality). The economy is still obligated to repay the debt (usually through taxes) and economic activity becomes sequestered in wealthy people’s savings, without ever creating demand for someone else’s product.
[3] Money printing is also unhelpful when it is used to fund more air consumption without any investment in air production. For example, a family that borrows money for an air vacation (or for basic daily air subsistence):
- Now has a debt–repayment of which will reduce future air consumption
- Has created no permanent demand for air and does not require permanently expanding air production for the economy–so their vacation air demand tends to increase the cost of air for all other consumers.
PRICE
What happens when we put these two chapters together? When air becomes more difficult to extract:
[1] Production cost goes up permanently.
[2] Economic activity is redirected to maintain air production, and overall economic activity is reduced. With reduced overall economic activity there is a reduced need for air, resulting in excess air supply and a temporary reduction in air price.
[3] If air consumers spend their available money on air and defer other purchases, there is an additional reduction in economic activity, additional excess supply and further reduction in air price.
[4] Reduced price means less revenue to air producers.
[5] Owners of idled air rigs still have debts to pay (money borrowed to build air rig in the first place). They are willing to undercut the market price of air just to get revenue to pay their debts, even if they aren’t making a profit otherwise. This drives the price even lower.
So air prices fall, even though the cost of air production continues to rise.
This begins to look like an economic crisis. A natural response of governments is to print money so that consumers have more money available to purchase air, without deferring other purchases.
This can work for a while, but ultimately fails when there is no overall growth in economic activity to match the increased money supply. The debt comes due (usually in the form of higher taxes). There isn’t enough productive activity in the economy to easily pay back the debt. As a result, consumers must defer even more of their consumption to repay debt, ultimately resulting in even lower air prices.
Eventually either the debt market or air market runs the risk of failing entirely.
[1] When economic activity falters, people can no longer repay their debts (or earn enough income to pay taxes toward government debt). Either of these outcomes is bad both for borrowers and lenders.
[2] If economic activity falters, market forces push air producers to a zero-profit price point. At this point, producers have enough money to keep the rigs running and cover debt payments, but no more. Ultimately this cannibalizes the ability of air producers to maintain existing air supplies. They are unable to purchase replacement machines, if any one breaks. They cannot make new investments.
Clearly, this situation cannot continue. High prices cannot be passed on to consumers, or they will be unable to buy other necessities of life. At the same time, if the producers do not get high enough prices, they cannot continue to provide the air or any other commodity that is needed.
i can’t understand why people care so much about race /religion/Ethnic
we all know everything come to end eventually in this universe
look all human species before Homo sapiens also gone from earth forever
so nothing is permanent whether civilization or empire or country or ever homo sapiens
yes!
why do we care about the world economy, peak everything, OFW, science, fake science, fake news, real news, facts, art, sports, secks, food (dark chocolate!), warm dry shelter, good clothing, cars(!), friends, family, celebrities, the Flying Spaghetti Monster, Fast Eddy, BD, Third World person, Keith(!), that POTUS guy, Putin(!), me(!!!!!!!), flora and fauna and everything else?
why, oh, why?
relative to the 13.7 billion year history of this universe, human extinction is right around the corner…
but, wait!
isn’t a New Glorious Golden Age of rainbows and unicorns about to rise in a beautiful dawn of wondrous enlightenment cast down upon us from the Olympian heights where the Powers That Be look upon us and smile?
you know, June 1st?
Revenues from Canadian oil and gas extraction are declining
http://www.digitaljournal.com/business/revenues-from-canadian-oil-and-gas-extraction-are-declining/article/521345#ixzz5EXZxF5Q7
From first paragraph,
This is the problem. If net energy is truly too low, it is governments that get shorted, both in direct tax revenue and in taxed from non-elite workers. Ultimately, governments tend to collapse.
I think this effects countries which print their own currency differently than countries pegged to the U.S. dollar, or the eurozone nations. The canadian dollar has been a floating currency since 1970. The case in Saudi Arabia where as I understand it the Riyal is pegged to the dollar is different – since SA is essentially taxing their oil in U.S. dollars which they don’t control.
Canada does not need to tax oil companies in order to provision their government insofar as they can create Canadian dollars. The taxation arrangement represents a political decision to redistribute some of the surplus from the oil industry in this case. It may look like the government is going broke, but this would be a policy issue. You would also see the currency of Canada fall as the total real production of their economy falls and their real terms of trade would suffer – less goods and services available through international trade.
What you say is true, this does look like it would lead Canada toward governmental collapse. But that is only if they behave as if their currency were not fiat. They could radically change their policies and money finance to represent their dwindling resources. I think this would lead to social class conflict as the meaning of contracts, value and assets were radically redefined in order to hold the system together. In many ways I think we saw this already in the bailout of the banking systems. Some people are helped in order to keep the system together which causes resentment among those who eat the risk.
If governments/central banks truly do “whatever it takes” they will break the social contracts which represent the fabric of their nations, and it may be failure by populism rather than strict default.
“…But that is only if they behave as if their currency were not fiat. They could radically change their policies and money finance to represent their dwindling resources.”
TheBlondBeast, can you expand on that a little bit? I’m having trouble getting my head around what that would actually entail.
NIRP/ZIRP, pour money over whatever is about to break.
Sure thing. Every Canadian dollar is created by the Bank of Canada. In order for the economy to grow, new Canadian dollars must be created. The Bank of Canada distributes these in various ways through their policies in the banking system. They then choose a tax policy which reflects political goals and they represent to the public that this is how they fund their government. But this is not technically true. First they create (spend) the money, then they tax it. The function of taxation is redistribution, not funding. Acting like the central bank and political arms have a hard separation is at best incorrect, and at worst a purposeful obfuscation.
I did not always think this way but have been forced to seriously reconsider recently. It does not change the end result – that Canadian prosperity is declining – but the taxation issue for Canada is different than a country which uses taxation to fund the nation with real resources, rather than representing the distribution of resources.
I’m not exactly sure how the taxation works on the foreign exchange markets. If oil taxation in Canada is taxed like a tariff in U.S. dollars which are used to purchase international goods then I am dead wrong.
Yes it is hard imagining ”lack of faith in the system” bringing the system down when we are all locked into the same global fiat system.
Truly demonstrating lack of faith would be stop consuming and earning money, everything else is just bichting.
Sorry I think I missed part of your question. The government of Canada could simply spend money into existence by crediting accounts in the amount of the government budget. Fiat dollars are “points” and the government is the scorekeeper.
Thanks, TBB. Plenty to chew over there.
@DJ – I think “lack of faith” would be represented as demanding changes that are non-solutions. Things like subsidizing renewables, trade war issues, for instance.
In theory, governments of countries with fiat currencies could simply spend more money into existence but, in fact, they historically have taxed fossil fuel companies at quite a high rate–basically what the market would bear. The fossil fuel companies can’t run away like other companies facing high tax rates.
We know that in oil exporting countries, oil taxes are often nearly the entire source of government revenue. In the US, for many years Alaska did not have a state income tax; instead, residents got an annual rebate of part of the oil taxes/royalties paid by companies there. Oil and gas taxes tend to be very high, where they are available.
This is a map from 2013 of taxes as a percentage of operating income by state. The same chart is shown today. (I presume it is because the percentage stay pretty much the same.)
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/pe_worldmapunfold1-comp.jpg
Chart showing “government take” as a percentage of operating income by Barry Rodgers Oil and Gas Consulting.
I think of tax revenues on energy companies as transferring some of the energy surplus to the government. If tax revenues are falling, we have a major problem.
Thank you for the chart. I want to review this to see any connections between the balance of trade, sovereign currency status, and tendency for governments to rely on tax-funding.
Another way to look at the issue is that taxing fossil fuel companies limits their consumption (executives, employees, shareholders), leaving more ability to consume for the rest of the economy. Whether the money-printing government spends those same dollars or merely disappears them isn’t as functionally important as shifting the balance of who is entitled to consume goods and services (represented by having money). This works just fine as long as production is easy and cheap. High cost of production is another way of saying that the oil industry is consuming a lot more resources (and energy) – resulting in the tax problem which represents overall lack of surplus. But I don’t think the government is actually at risk unless the oil trade for the country effects the nations real terms of trade – meaning their ability to produce and import more net goods and services.
Well, CA just put the UK in the rear view mirror:
California now world’s 5th largest economy, surpassing UK
https://www.sfgate.com/news/us/article/California-now-world-s-5th-largest-economy-12888461.php
CA has lots of oil– but the UK has more.
If the cost of energy production is high, there is a second effect. The quantity of energy consumption tends to shrink, or not grow. The economy, to accommodate the lower total energy supply because of high prices, tends to automate more processes, putting quite a few non-elite workers out of jobs, or giving them very low wages (driving an Uber car, for example). The economy then has difficulty collecting enough taxes from these non-elite workers. The low wages of non-elite workers tends to be what reduces total taxes collected to too low a level.
This second, related problem goes together with not being able to collect enough energy taxes directly.
Also, “demand” for goods and services is at least as important as supply. With wage disparity, demand (and thus prices) tends to fall. This cuts off production of energy goods, eventually.
“CA has lots of oil– but the UK has more.”
I was mistaken about UK oil production…
they are at about 1 million bpd…
that’s much better than I had assumed…
about one tenth of US production, but unfortunately about one quarter the population…
enough oil to keep them in the core…
but for how long?
Gail writes: «If the cost of energy production is high, there is a second effect. The quantity of energy consumption tends to shrink, or not grow. The economy, to accommodate the lower total energy supply because of high prices, tends to automate more processes, putting quite a few non-elite workers out of jobs, or giving them very low wages (driving an Uber.»
But isn’t building this automation technology more energy demanding?
The self adjusting system in action ….
Peak Oil References
https://imgur.com/a/rBtIrfg
https://imgur.com/a/mvTRAll
JFK blah blah blah…
as long as there are humans, there will be wars…
does it matter at all if human extinction is caused by war or something else?
from now in 2018 and going forward, the one thing that is guaranteed for humanity is its extinction…
1,100 economists warn that Trump is repeating one of the biggest mistakes of the Great Depression
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/1100-economists-warn-that-trump-is-repeating-one-of-the-biggest-mistakes-of-the-great-depression/ar-AAwHqOQ?ocid=st
According to the article,”The economists cited a 1930 letter that warned Congress against passing the Smoot-Hawley Act, a large package of tariffs that many studies cite as a major reason for the depth of the Great Depression.”
The problem in the 1930s was the same one as now: virtually zero growth in energy consumption per capita. That was the cause of the problems then, and the problems were in many ways similar to the ones now. As a workaround for the problems (not enough energy go around, too much wage disparity), the same attempted solution was used then as now. Blaming the solution for the outcome is not correct, however. Economists have a way of missing energy problems.
Yep – at the time huge amounts of debt created capital investment, at a time where production could be ramped up to allow all this new money to be spent by workers on goods and services. Now there does not appear to be any meaningful way to get productivity returns on capital (especially energy sector), and I also don’t believe that huge money injections to consumers could be met with higher levels of production without spiking oil prices, and subsequently crashing the system.
outstanding
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-03/skripals-douma-globalist-pravda-network-reveals-its-true-face
fast eddy the way you talk in ofw
remind me of joe pesci in goodfellas
https://youtu.be/E84VqqCPI7w
Not brad pitt… or maybe george clooney?
There is some truth to the article, however. We do tend to believe news articles, even if circumstantial evidence suggests that they could not be true.
Its all a matter of dominating the news cycle for just long enough to program the slumbering masses that this narrative is the one to believe. Ask Alice in Wonderland how much the truth actually matters.
I think this summary in englisch of a report by an independent research organisation about a large scale CCS could be of interest to Gail and others.
https://blog.sintef.com/sintefenergy/ccs/industrial-opportunities-and-employment-prospects-in-large-scale-co2-management-in-norway/
Reading the title of the article immediately makes me want to say, “Good grief, how absurd!”
The very first energy conference I went to when I started looking at energy many years ago was at Georgia Tech. They had several experts explaining some of the issues concerning CCS, among other things. None of the scientists there could see more than the tiniest sliver of applicability to CCS. A few of the issues involved included:
–The quantity of CO2 transferred has to be huge, because the molecular weight of CO2 is 44, while the molecular weight of C is 12.
–The big issue with respect to energy supply is affordability. Separating CO2 out and transporting CO2 seems to be an expensive proposition. Storing it, and then following up on it for thousands fo years, would be an amazing expense. The cost is a truly long-term cost.
–CO2 is not inert. It tends to react with the rocks in the area where it is injected.
–Even if we store it, it is not at all clear that we can keep it from escaping from where we planned to store it. What is the point in all of this expense, if 100 years from now, or 1000 years from now, the CO2 gets away?
–If CO2 gets away, it tends to form a low lying cloud that smothers the people living in the area. This characteristic makes people say, “Not in my back yard.” This characteristic also adds a huge liability issue.
The article talks about the idea of the project leading to 30,000 jobs. There is an energy costs in feeding, housing, and transporting these 30,000 workers. Adding CCS is not making the energy system more efficient, just more costly. Somehow, we need to add efficiency savings to the system to get rid of the overhead now added by including the CCS. This happens because the cost of energy services (energy cost + energy efficiency gains) needs to fall, if the rest of the economy is to continue to grow.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2018/04/price-of-energy-services-has-been-falling.png
I agree, Gail, and a very good example of how scientific research papers are missing the bigger picture.
Someone posted not long ago a videolecture from Steve Keen. Here is another very interesting one. Skip the first 6-7 min before he digs into the question of economic theory and the laws of thermodynamics https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=f8KhlejNwyU&feature=youtu.be
Thanks for the tip!
I wish he would use written media rather than the spoken word. Listening to a 1.5 hour lecture and taking screen shots is not a great approach. I like to be able to look back at the material after the fact and refresh my memory, if I want to refer to the material again.
CCS is utterly stupid. There is 50x the CO2 in the oceans than in the air. Anything one might do to “reduce” CO2 in the air is negated by the oceans.
“Argentina’s central bank has hiked its interest rates by 300 basis points for a second time in less than a week, in its latest attempt to halt the peso’s dramatic slide against the US dollar.
“The country took the markets by surprise once again on Thursday with an ad hoc interest rate rise to 33.25 per cent. The move comes just six days after the bank raised rates from 27.25 per cent to 30.25 per cent.
“The drastic move comes as the country’s currency continues its precipitous descent against the greenback. The peso hit a fresh all-time low of 21.89 per dollar after sliding 3.4 per cent in early Thursday trade. It was trading at around 15 per dollar just a year ago.”
https://www.ft.com/content/54ed08cc-4ee2-11e8-a7a9-37318e776bab
“When Yolanda Abreu got her cheque for severance pay after five years working as a cardiologist, she let out a laugh of sheer disbelief: it was barely enough for a cup of coffee.
“Like her, millions of Venezuelans have seen their salaries decimated by rampant hyperinflation that is expected to drive prices up by 13,000 per cent this year, IMF figures show.”
https://gulfnews.com/business/economy/in-venezuela-five-years-of-severance-pay-now-buys-a-coffee-1.2214737
In Thailand she could always work in a gogo bar….
As Soviet Union was collapsing, there were coming russian nuclear scientists and professors to Finland for prostitutes. Quite a societal drop, from being high class worker turning to a c**k sucking expert in neighbouring country.
Then Putin came, and the neoliberal idiots from the West left.
The rest is history.
How satisfying would it be to see precious ‘finishing school’ debutants…. resort to those sorts of activities to try to stay alive… it would definitely give them some perspective given they surely stand in judgment of any woman who do ‘that’
It is a supply and demand thing
“As investors worry about what higher inflation means for [Turkey’s] central bank — which only just raised rates for the first time in a year last week in an attempt to balance the problem — they’re putting pressure on the lira, the country’s currency. It hit a fresh record low against the U.S. dollar, and so far this year, is down almost 10 percent.”
https://www.marketplace.org/2018/05/03/world/what-s-pushing-turkey-s-economy-danger-zone
Good time to visit Istanbul…. currency weakness… and no doubt there are hotel deals
All a person has to do is cross one’s fingers that there are no other major problems. Maybe if a person goes soon enough.
I wouldn’t worry about it… I went to Egypt during the crazy time… from watching the news one would have thought the entire country was in flames…. but in reality there were only a handful of specific areas that were affected… outside of those areas it was BAU….
Check out special offers for Turkey on my new website http://www.strifetravel.com We currently have excellent deals for Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Ukraine… and we just introduced a new series of tours to major US cities with hotel accommodation in the centre of collapsing downtowns including Detroit…
Go to Strive Travel NOW!
Then why isn’t she here in the US? For five years my doctor was a woman from Cuba. Four years ago when my wife went to nursing school one of her classmates was a woman from Venezuela who had been a dietitian for the 2012 Venezuelan Olympic team. She was from an upper-class family, one of her sisters is a judge. She could not convince them to join her in Florida. They were sure they could ride it out in their compounds.
It is hard to operate an economy with an interest rate of 33.25%!
“For years, the naysayers have been warning about the precariousness of the corporate credit market. In an environment where balance sheets have become more and more bloated from excess borrowing stoked by the Federal Reserve’s easy-money policies, shrinking bond yield premiums don’t make sense. At some point, they argue, there will have to be a reckoning.
“Could we be nearing that point?
“…there’s mounting anecdotal evidence of possible cracks in the credit facade. One place you can see them is in the latest monthly survey put out by the National Association of Credit Management. This organization surveys 1,000 trade credit managers in the manufacturing and service industries across the U.S. Like most surveys of its kind lately, the main index number was down a bit from its recent highs. But some Wall Street strategists are focusing on a more alarming data point showing a collapse in a category called “dollar collections.” The index covering that part of the survey — which measures the ability of creditors to collect the money they are owed from their customers — tumbled to 46.7 in April from 59.6 in March, putting it at its lowest level since early 2009, the height of the financial crisis…
““Rising interest rates will add pressure on corporates with large refinancing needs,” the Washington-based Institute of International Finance wrote in its report. It estimates about $3.8 trillion of loan repayments will be coming due annually.
“Credit is the lifeblood of the economy and financial markets. As such, it has a reputation for being a sort of early-warning system for investors and leading indicator for riskier assets such as equities. The equity strategists at Bloomberg Intelligence say they are noticing that stock performance is starting to correlate strongly with corporate balance sheet health as well as profitability. In an April report, they wrote that over the prior year, stocks of Standard & Poor’s 500 Index members with higher cash ratios outperformed low-ratio counterparts. Also, stocks of companies with higher net-debt ratios relative to both cash flow and market capitalization underperformed lower-debt counterparts, with average monthly return differentials of 1.1 percentage points.
“A growing number of influential Wall Street firms, from Guggenheim Partners to Pacific Investment Management Co., and from BlackRock Inc. to Greg Lippmann — who helped design the “Big Short” trade against subprime mortgages — are raising the alarm about the dangers growing in credit markets. It may well be that the reckoning is closer than we think.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-05-03/credit-market-cracks-are-showing-if-you-know-where-to-look
listen up boys if i’m right the elders will keep BAU going until we die in our sleep of old age the world is a stage and everything you see is an act think perpetual motion machine what do you think they’re really doing down at CERN looking for god particles or the holy grail of energy free unlimited energy from dark matter
This is what happens when you try to fight against the nihilism of a self-organized system … if you increase wages…. you make the situation worse… because the system will self organize…. staff will be cut… expenses slashed…
There is no free lunch…. the pie cannot be make bigger…
http://fmshooter.com/minimum-wage-hikes-what-happens-when-labor-cant-be-automated/
But, of course, it’s necessary for Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg to become quadrillionaires.
Otherwise everything will collapse, isn’t that right FE.
Doris Day has a song about that…
Que sera, sera, put up with your lot in life, young girl…
she still alive ?
she’s still kicking. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doris_Day
And here we have the Dum b F789 Award fo the week…. it goes to Steve…. who just sent this out…
Yes – Steve – the man who believes owning gold will make one immune to the rape – hunger – radiation – violence and diseases of the post BAU…
There is a king midas angle here somewhere….
https://srsroccoreport.com/gold-silver-eagle-sales-drop-sharply-due-to-central-bank-intervention/
I have not doubt that the average black person is not treated the same as the average white person — and so — apparently — do a lot of white people
Raw videos that show officers shooting and beating unarmed black people have stirred outrage and prompted disbelief. Captured by cellphones or police cameras, footage has spread through social media, shining a light on disturbing police encounters.
“A lot of white people are truly shocked by what these videos depict; I know very few African-Americans who are surprised,” said Paul D. Butler, a law professor at Georgetown University and a former prosecutor.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/08/19/us/police-videos-race.html
If this guy is white – does this happen? Nope. I guaran-f789ing-t-you
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Louis_Gates_arrest_controversy
VIDEO: Former Clinton Finance Team Member Tells Local N.J. Police To “Shut The F— Up!’
https://savejersey.com/2018/04/video-caren-turner-traffic-stop-hillary-clinton-port-authority/
Now imagine if a black woman told a cop to Shut the F789 Up! What do you reckon would happen.
Do you know any black Americans? If you do – then maybe you should ask them if they think they are treated the same as white people
The black Americans I know are mainly in the finance industry in Hong Kong – MBA types… they look and act like white men — one came out of that industry and runs one of the biggest entertainment groups in Hong Kong….
And if I put your question to them — they would laugh their asses off.. what you are asserting is totally ridiculous…. Black Americans are NOT treated the same as white Americans
What planet do you live on?
Clearly it is not earth — you need to get back down here quick because the cosmic rays are frying your brain.
In the US, there are indeed differences among races, and among how different races are treated. This is a PEW research report showing differences among races in wages. The analysis does not control for education, so the fact that blacks and hispanics tend to have less education on average tends to bring their wage levels down. Source: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/07/01/racial-gender-wage-gaps-persist-in-u-s-despite-some-progress/
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2018/05/white-men-out-earn-black-and-hispanic-men-and-women-pew.png
But it is clear that blacks are not the bottom of the barrel; hispanics are in this way of looking at the data. It is also clear that there are wide differences by race, with Asians on top. Of course, educated Asians are more likely to come to the US than less educated Asians. But there is also an aptitude and cultural difference among the races. Asians tend to do especially well on math, and that is a skill that is highly desired today.
If PEW controls for education, we still see a similar pattern. But the differences are much greater for men than for women. And Asians again come out on top.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2018/05/controlling-for-education-white-men-outearn-other-groups-pew.png
A PEW Survey also confirms that blacks disproportionately feel that they are discriminated against in the workplace.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2018/05/blacks-and-whites-workplace-views-vary-pew.png
We have tried all kinds of experiments to try to upgrade the status of blacks, but the results have often backfired. For example, colleges were encouraged to enroll blacks who only barely met their normal admission standards. The result was a high dropout rate for black students. They ended up with debt and no degree. They were worse off than they would have been, if they had not enrolled.
The subprime housing of the early 2000s in large part represented an attempt to increase homeownership among blacks citizens. Underwriting standards were changed so more individuals could qualify for loans. Also, new types of loans were developed with lower monthly payments, but more risk of higher monthly payments if interest rates rose. I know that in the Atlanta area where I live, the suburbs that are predominantly black were affect far more by the bubble in housing prices, and the loss of asset value, than other parts of the metropolitan area. So blacks came out worse in that attempt, as well.
The neighborhood where I live is very much mixed race. It also includes gay couples and mixed race couples. I think that this is often true in the Atlanta area. It is perhaps a little less true elsewhere.
But a small white woman would still be a little concerned, if she were to meet a poorly dressed black male, on a dark street at night. I think that this is a little related to cultural differences, similar to the ones Europe is facing with the recent immigrants from the Middle East. The system is self-organized. It is really difficult to try to “fix” a complex problem. Police officers tend not to be paid very well, and are concerned for their lives as well.
If we can’t admit that races that evolved separately for thousands of years in disparate environments have significant biological differences then we might as well call ourselves creationists.
I would agree. The strengths of blacks are not highly valued in today’s industrialized society. When I visited Cuba, I remember hearing that blacks were imported as slaves to work in the sugar fields because they were big and strong, and didn’t have trouble working in the hot sun all day. But those are not the qualities valued today. Blacks in Cuba seems to have racial discrimination problem today, perhaps because of this issue. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Racism_in_Cuba
According to the website:
When we see photos of the Cuban leadership, black faces are notably absent: a bit of an Hispanic stitch up?
So, you reckon all black people have the same opinion on police brutality…that it’s a widespread problem? To put police brutality in context, you would have to post some figures that show how often it happens and where it happens, and prove each time it happened there was a racist motive (such as with the Ron Zimmerman case). Then, you would have to control that data by comparing it it happens with any working class whites, and other minorities.
You won’t do that because that involves math, and the data might not reinforce you narrative.
You are using NYT, a liberal news source, liberal news sources are known for exaggerating the degree of racism and making it seem like things are just as bad as it was in 1903.
I know plenty of black people…just not the neurotic type who complain about racism in the most liberal of enclaves, who interpret everything as being racist.
What does it matter if average black are less intelligent than average white, we are not averages.
Intelligence has created a lot of our problems. Perhaps if some (but certainly not all) blacks are less intelligent, that may be a useful adaptation.
The exceptional blacks are not treated like an average white
On July 16, 2009, Harvard University professor Henry Louis Gates Jr. was arrested at his Cambridge, Massachusetts, home by local police officer Sgt. James Crowley, who was responding to a 9-1-1 caller’s report of men breaking and entering the residence.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Louis_Gates_arrest_controversy
A glimpse into the Post BAU world – before the radiation puts an end to everything…
Piss, sh it, blood, disease… everywhere… and remember – cholera epidemics were not just city specific… they hit rural areas big time … back when populations numbers were a fraction of what they are today….
When BAU goes – you’ll want to check out from the hell on earth that follows.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-03/crisis-cali-workers-face-buckets-feces-and-needles-homelessness-worsens
cali love
https://youtu.be/Ctfvo1QwIgQ
What is the human world?
The human world is a system for the protection of the human species.
What is human species?
Human species is a unity of animal and external accumulated energy. There are no humans without the external accumulated energy.
Can humans exist after the extraction of fossil fuels stops?
Yes, they can still survive, using the biomass or e.g. the fat of other animals or accumulated plastic and other combustible waste for fire.
I got me literally thousands of rounds of high and low powered ammo and a locker full of rifles and shotguns — that says — any animal that moves post BAU goes into the cook pot…. as I wait for the radiation .. or the bad guys… or the diseases… to arrive.
Kill Kill Kill!!!!
Don’t forget the ZOMBIES. Those starving hordes will look just like zombies, staggering around looking for anything to eat. THE ROAD cometh.
Louis Pasteur — ‘Messieurs, c’est les microbes qui auront le dernier mot. (Gentlemen, it is the microbes who will have the last word.)
Yep – if I don’t run into the rock cut at 100mph…. I suspect my last stand will involve shittting my guts out in the paddock out back as dysentary grabs hold… while I fire off rounds at the hordes who are trying to get to my garage full of canned beans….
The verdant fields of Little House … will be splattered with guts and sh it…. and rotting corpses…. and haunted by howls of women being raped.
We are humans – we are the most dangerous animals to ever walk the face of the earth — watch what happens when there are not enough bones….
Just been reading about the diseases of India suffered by the British colonists in the 19th century, and the decimation of the British army by cholera in the Crimean campaign.
Salutary to realise just how fast something like cholera can kill ( in some ways that’s merciful, typhus on the other hand can drag out horribly).
The end of the world for most of us is most likely to be, not zombies, starvation, nuclear war, or being knocked on the head to be eaten but : ‘I feel a bit faint, a little feverish: I’ll just……’
Really, not that bad at all.
‘In severe cases, shock and organ failure can occur. Without treatment, death can occur in more than 50% of cases within a few hours.’
Definitely better than being a permie doomer and having bad guys yoke to a plough you forcing you to feed them — while having to watch them rape you dotter and wife…
Cholera will be the doomie prepper’s best friend….
Bad is good. 2=2+7
this says it all for cholera—marvellous stuff by kipling
http://www.kiplingsociety.co.uk/poems_choleracamp.htm
Diseases from ticks, mosquitoes and fleas up 200% in usa since 2004
https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/dBZIY5XtWPqjxlZ0gmiXVnBtnmE=/1484×0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/WPWIWE4X3M6JZCRZJ45UV5MC24.png
another example of bau decline in usa
This is part of the program to obfuscate the Induced Impairment of the proles. Someone is responsible for the toxins in our air, food, and water so let’s don’t go there.
Insects did it. Viruses did it. Second hand smoke did it.
There is always the notion that the toxins are induced into the people to make money. Money is always good. But they could make money by making us more healthy.
Dr. Peter Cotzsche, leader of the Nordic Cochrane Center says that pharmaceuticals are the third leading cause of death after heart and cancer.
Form follows function. Law Of The Universe.
Induced Impairment is Big Brother’s response to failing per capita energy.
Falling per capita. whatever.
I am noticing that many people I know complain of gastro problems… acid reflux… bloating … stomach pain… etc…
I do not recall this being the case in recent times….
I am wondering if this has something to do with GMO foods…. and our bodies not recognizing this stuff … and reacting ….
An awfully lot of people are in terrible condition, health-wise. Any little problem becomes a major problem.
In the US, we are encouraged to use a huge number of medications. These have side effects and interact. These are indeed part of the problem.
Ponziworld today: Peak oil & cars
Today he refers to this zerohedge article: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-04/all-eyes-payrolls-real-story-ongoing-em-rout
The Real Story is the Ongoing EM Route
TRY = Turkish Lira
ZAR = South African Rand
IND = Indian Rupee
IDR = Indonesian Rupiah
It really sucks when you have debt in one currency … and you earn in another … and that currency slides…
I recall the Asian financial crisis…. traveling to Jakarta — almost no cars on the streets…. beggars everywhere… a buddy picked me up and he insisted I keep the windows closed as we rode through the city….
You could taste the desperation in the air…. it was bad to be Chinese during that time
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_1998_riots_of_Indonesia#Rapes_and_Sexual_Violence_on_Chinese_Minority
Dated a girl there who had been let go by one of the big hotel chains… I recall her commenting that ‘this place is now a hell hole’
On the bright side… if you had USD … and you acted quickly … you could buy a car for small money … dealers did not immediately reprice their stock….
the “Finite World” problem has finally been resolved
https://www.flatearthconventionuk.co.uk
you can all go home
is this start point of dark ages in western civilization ?
I think we’ll have radioactive “glowing ages” instead of dark ages, unfortunately.
+++++
https://goo.gl/images/ic8Qp8
http://www.webexhibits.org/causesofcolor/images/content/aurora/Cerenkov-radiation-reedZ.jpg
i think you missed the start—we’re already at the interval
We get a literal dark age this time — when the power goes out — and 7.8 billion energy starved souls burn everything that can be burned (keeping in mind trees are not easily burned when they are green…) then we will enter the Dark Age…
And it will be eternal.
If those living during The Dark Ages had not eventually worked out that they could burn fossil fuels… they would have Easter Islanded the planet …. and they’d have experienced true darkness…
We’ve used up all the accessible fossil fuels …. so instead we get the booby prize 🙂
and even boobies went extinct
Noam Chomsky and Daniel Ellsburg Discuss the Increasing Threat of Nuclear War
https://www.alternet.org/watch-noam-chomsky-and-daniel-ellsburg-discuss-increasing-threat-nuclear-war-and-disturbing-result?src=newsletter1091787
Chomsky said [55.43]:
The simple fact of advancing NATO to the Russian border… is virtually asking for disaster.
While both of our Presidential Candidates were nightmares, HRC was petal to the metal with NATO expansion.
At least the Golden Idiot hasn’t gone forward—-
I’m here discussing that there has been no recent increase in the threat of nuclear war…
1. Russia vs NATO is just aggressive bluffing…
2. NK situation has been calmed…
look, those 2 dudes are very smart…
but just because they say something, it isn’t necessarily true…
and let’s say (for fun) that the threat has increased…
from what, 0.5% to 1% in a calendar year?
let me go hide under my bed…
Critical Mass (2012)
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2261427/
That is the best collapse movie I have ever seen. A must watch, and only 2 dollars to rent on Amazon. Its also free if you have a prime membership.
Here is a link to the free torrent of that movie. For anyone who doesn’t want to pay.
https://torrentz2.eu/fdbdcd0c5416eb907ccd44b3944c1106b52ffe93
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Critical_Mass_(film)
It was good, but the psychology aspects were far too broad for me.
https://hdvix.com/movie/critical-mass-2012-11663/
Little know fact that those mice were ground up and sold as hot dogs in the late 60’s
It looks rather corny….very Hollywood…
https://youtu.be/XAO4aZkAFFs
That isn’t the same movie.
“A key gauge of business conditions in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector deteriorate to record lows in April as new orders contracted and job creation eased in the region’s biggest economy. That slowdown comes even as oil prices rallied this year and the Saudi Arabia, the biggest oil exporter in the world, boosted spending.”
https://www.thenational.ae/business/saudi-arabia-s-non-oil-economy-slows-in-april-as-new-orders-contract-1.726841
Ouch!
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-03/saudi-arabia-needs-88-oil
I can believe that Saudi Arabia need $88 per barrel oil.
I read another analysis that said even the old $70 number was about $30 low from what they really need to cover their liabilities.
“Saudi Arabia’s banks are preparing for muted lending growth this year, providing a reality check on the state of the country’s economy and government efforts to stimulate growth.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-banks-loans/cautious-saudi-bankers-give-reality-check-on-countrys-economic-health-idUSKBN1I4268
“The smallest oil producer in the Arabian Gulf will join Lebanon, Libya and Sudan in 2019 as the only countries in the Middle East and North Africa with debt that exceeds 100% of gross domestic product, according to the latest IMF economic outlook. Oil has to average $113 a barrel this year for Bahrain to meet its spending demands.”
http://www.gulf-times.com/story/591445/100-debt-club-is-set-to-add-a-member-from-Gulf
“Sudan is to close 13 overseas diplomatic missions and will slash the number of staff at its foreign ministry, state media reported Thursday, as the government faces a crippling economic crisis.”
http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/cash-strapped-sudan-closes-13-diplomatic-missions-2007995028
Read what happens when Koombaya crashes into reality
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2003/mar/09/biography.features
sudan is being clobbered by my Universal Law:
https://medium.com/@End_of_More/universal-law-16d41003fe2
when i wrote it, I thought it was ridiculous, but now nation after nation is getting hit by it, one way or another
“…as the U.S. takes on these unprecedented levels of debt during economic boom times, a potential crisis looms: Foreign investment in U.S. debt is currently at its lowest point since November 2016 and has been decreasing steadily since 2008, when foreigners owned about 55 percent of American debt…
Just like the quick sell-off of housing debt led, in part, to the financial crisis of 2008, “a sell-off of US debt could cause financial crisis,” said Goldwein. “But who’s big enough to bail out the U.S. federal government?””
http://www.newsweek.com/trump-tax-cuts-debt-china-907763
I think that US deficit spending a major reason for the China trade deficit. We can’t reduce the trade deficit without reducing the amount of US deficit spending, and doing this would send the US into recession.
Of course, someone has to buy all of this additional debt. If the US cuts QE, there is even more US debt on the market.
Isn’t that why interest rates have to go up? To make it more compelling to buy?
Right!
I don’t think so. It doesn’t really matter if China buys them or not. They already have U.S. dollars in “checking” accounts at the Fed. They can’t spend it all on goods or else they would lose their balance of trade preference. So they simply chose to hold dollars in savings instead of checking. China buying just represents swapping assets in a computer at the Fed from reserves to securities.
China wants to be a net-exporter to provide jobs. As such they can’t spend all the dollars they receive from trade. These have to wind up somewhere. Even if China chooses to buy foreign currencies, then someone else will hold the dollars. U.S. dollars will either return and create jobs (or inflate assets) through purchasing, or they will stay in savings.
From Wrandal Wray: “Under current law, special primary dealer banks must buy new issues of treasury bonds, and then they can either keep them, sell them to the public, or sell them to the Federal Reserve. But even if we didn’t have our current institutional structure, a currency-issuing government like the United States can always sell its bonds to the central bank.” We may lose credibility based on public perception of quantitative easing, but I am not sure such skepticism has as much merit.
Ultimately I think all our money represents all our goods and services. What I see is an increasing money/debt creation vs increase in the underlying real economy. This problem is physical, and doesn’t have much to do with nominal banking. We simply can’t combine labor+capital to increase production because our stock of base capital has a large metabolic cost, our energy resources are decreasing in quality, and our ability to use innovation to increase production is reaching diminishing marginal returns. Funny money won’t get us out of this.
“We simply can’t combine labor+capital to increase production because our stock of base capital has a large metabolic cost, our energy resources are decreasing in quality, and our ability to use innovation to increase production is reaching diminishing marginal returns. Funny money won’t get us out of this.”
You are right.
” Funny money won’t get us out of this.”
though above, you sure seem to be saying that it will extend things until “rationing”…
really good summaries of the unfolding situation… you are winning the internet today/tonight…
“Ultimately I think all our money represents all our goods and services. What I see is an increasing money/debt creation vs increase in the underlying real economy.”
did you mean to type “decrease in the underlying real economy”?
so…
doesn’t increasing money vs decreasing real economic activity = inflation?
do you think at your predicted stage of “rationing” that there might be hyperinflation?
this could be quite scary to the public…
good thing it’s years away…
“The legacy of the global financial crisis runs deep in a country [UK] still saddled with the cost of bailing out its banks. It led to the disillusionment that produced the Brexit vote to leave the European Union and a backlash against austerity at last year’s election.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-03/even-england-s-richest-region-is-struggling-to-make-ends-mee
“Banks have quietly cut their interest rates for savers, defying calls from the governor of the Bank of England to do more for customers after the recent base-rate rise.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/banks-slash-interest-rates-for-savers-25cbs9rx3
[ Sorry, that’s a bad link above; should be: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-03/even-england-s-richest-region-is-struggling-to-make-ends-meet ]
“One of the main architects of the UK’s post-crisis financial regulation has warned that the British banking system still has “dangerously high” levels of leverage after regulators “fell short” in the capital requirements they imposed on lenders.”
https://www.ft.com/content/f4a1e84e-4df5-11e8-97e4-13afc22d86d4
“When it comes to the strength of the global economy, there are few better indicators out there than trade volumes.
“After strengthening since early 2016, helped by a synchronised global economic upswing not seen before in the post-GFC era, there’s now growing evidence that suggests the best of the recovery is over.
“Soft economic data such as PMI reports, after scaling fresh cyclical peaks late last year and in early 2018, have come off the boil in recent months, including readings on export orders.
“Business sentiment has also started to waver, adding to signs the cycle may now be turning.
“Now the hard data is starting to back up those soft data readings, adding to evidence that global demand is waning.
“Take air freight volumes, for instance…”
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/global-economic-growth-iata-air-freight-trade-2018-5
“Recession have not become extinct and those who believe that the Fed and our government are up to the task of managing the economy well enough to avoid any future downturns will, at some point, be in for a big disappointment.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4168415-recession-coming
“Growth in the eurozone slowed in the first quarter this year, data showed Wednesday, adding to fears that the recovery in Europe was losing steam.”
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/eurozone-growth-slows-sharply-in-first-quarter-eu/articleshow/63999533.cms
Recession is good for the environment. But I only believe in recession once we see falling oil demand.
The corollary of such economic growth as we are seeing is a dangerous mountain of debt of various kinds, wherein existing debt is a worsening drag on growth and new debt is growing less and less productive, with China being the obvious example. The projected rise in oil demand is predicated on the mistaken assumption that those chickens will not come home to roost. Indeed they are likely to come home to roost sooner rather than later if the Fed tightens aggressively this year.
Recession might theoretically be a net positive for the environment, although companies looking to cut costs are highly unlikely to become more ‘green’ as a result. However, when weighed against the ecological nightmare that is the global economy/human endeavour in toto, any benefits to the environment look statistically negligible to me.
Except that I can’t see any evidence of recessions the the co2 data…
Falling oil demand comes from a reduction in debt levels (or debt collapsing from non-payment). The big drop in oil prices in July 2008 {Oops, originally said 2018) coincided with a drop in US borrowing in several categories. It would not be surprising if the same thing happens again, except that the drop in debt may be in China or Europe.
See my article, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis.
The Global Economy’s Wile E. Coyote Moment
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-03-09/the-global-economy-s-wile-e-coyote-moment
https://imgur.com/a/5bDPS7W
One month (March) is a little soon to start worrying about a slow-down in air freight growth, but it is something to watch.
“QE did succeed in reducing interest rates. So, QT can reasonably be expected to push them back up, which is arguably just what we are seeing. There is another potential consequence, however, that we should keep an eye on. That is, you could argue that QE also indirectly pushed stock prices up—and that QT could help push them down…”
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/will-quantitative-tightening-sink-the-market-38477.html
“While the trade disputes between Beijing and Washington are grabbing headlines as punitive tariffs and import restrictions threaten to affect China’s exports, a continuous rise in the US interest rate level – after the 10-year yield of the benchmark US treasury bills hit a four-year high – may translate into growing capital outflow pressure on China to disrupt Beijing’s efforts of reducing financial risks, analysts said.”
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2144514/us-china-trade-war-not-only-threat-beijing-rate-gap-shrinks
“Here’s a widely told yarn: Last year China successfully curtailed skyrocketing debt issuance without hurting growth.
“Like all good tall tales, it has some basis in truth. China’s debt-to-GDP ratio did level off in 2017, thanks largely to rebounding exports. What didn’t happen was a sharp slowdown in actual borrowing, until the end of 2017—meaning companies are only now feeling the pinch of tighter credit. Chinese property developer Zhonghong Holding Co. last week defaulted on more than $150 million of debt…”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/has-china-really-kicked-its-debt-addiction-1525251393
From the article:
China has to have higher rates than the US to assure capital inflows. This likely is true for other developing countries. This puts pressure on them to raise rates and cut off investment in their countries.
I would agree. Low interest rates push up asset prices of all kinds, including prices of shares of stock, prices of homes, and prices of farms.
What Ian Bremmer says in this video is very good, but it apparently does not set well with audiences who watch it, based on the relatively high share of “thumbs down ratings.” He talks about the fact that it is not an accident that anti-establishment candidates have been elected around the world, as more and more people find their own situation becoming worse.
Its amazing he can see all these changes happening, and then argue the economy is doing great. Obviously it is not, and that is why all these changes are happening. Duh…
Peak Oil And The Fall Of The Soviet Union: Lessons On The 20th Anniversary Of The Collapse
http://www.businessinsider.com/peak-oil-and-the-fall-of-the-soviet-union-lessons-on-the-20th-anniversary-of-the-collapse-2011-5
And when our peak oil supply shortages come it will cause a global economic collapse. Just like it did the Soviet Union nearly 30 years ago…
Think of the situation this way. Modeling peak oil and modeling climate change is similar to the situation of modeling a horse trying to jump over a series of hurdles of various heights. The peak oil analysis tries to tell you what will happen if the economy gets to the peak oil hurdle first. The climate change model tells what will happen if the economy gets to the climate change hurdle first.
The thing I keep trying to explain is that these are not the first hurdles. The economy hits a hurdle when energy consumption per capita stops rising enough. Since population is rising, this is when total energy consumption is still rising. This hurdle occurs before both of the hurdles mentioned above. There are clearly other hurdles as well, such as inadequate water per capita. Each researcher assumes that the problem he/she is looking at is the only problem, but it is not.
It’s looking more and more to me that if energy per capita can’t rise then labor can’t combine with capital to increase production and labor slides backward first. This shows up as private sector debt. Government money-financing takes over to try and keep the system moving – but this shifts more and more toward unproductive capital, as companies use access to easy credit to grow ventures which aren’t profitable from the standpoint of cash flow – which depends on sales.
I think government money-financing to support demand through some combination of hellicopter money, debt forgiveness, or something like this will be the next move, and is probably the only option to extend our efforts.
It seems to me like this will work until such a point as production of core necessities cannot be increased (food, housing) fast enough to avoid inflation. This is very likely to cause inflation, however, because subsidizing any industry creates competion.
For instance, money flowing into building hospitals causes competition with private sector construction projects. This isn’t such a problem from a labor standpoint – but it is from a materials and resources standpoint, which are under-girded by energy costs.
Those sorts of central bank interventions are fine but, not really a prophylactic for the sort of seismic financial shock we look to be headed for. I suppose they could pump up demand again after GFC 2.0, if indeed there is an after.
Good points!
Another way to say my response is that I think if the central banks decide to prop the system up it will destroy the social contract of what debts, assets and promises mean. The first hurdle to stop the run might be social unrest or violence in this way of thinking.
Yes – you’d imagine that all of the human ‘intangibles’ – investor/lender confidence, faith in fiat currencies and the security of bank deposits, such trust as there is in the competence of central banks and governments – that hold the system together would be at risk of evaporating under such contingencies. Spiralling social unrest and repressive government responses to that would certainly eventuate.
Yep – there is a lot of funny-money stuff we can do if all we care about is increasing production. Hell, we can nationalize the oil industry, and fund people’s bank accounts and pensions directly. The liability here is what will happen when people realize we are on a 100% guaranteed track to totalitarian financialized fascism, followed by inevitable shortages. I predict this is our course – first funny money, then rationing, then a breakdown.
I think the public can tolerate quite a bit of shenanigans, since the MSM might not share the OFW wisdom.
“I predict this is our course – first funny money, then rationing, then a breakdown.”
I think the public will not only tolerate but quite welcome the funny money… anything that keeps BAU up and running… even with flat productivity…
I usually enjoy a good bold prediction… thank you for yours!
if you are sort of correct, then the breakdown would seem to be years away, and would seem to be something that we could see coming down the road…
any ballpark prediction on dates?
and what do you think will be the actual first attempt at funny money?
If they really want to keep demand up enough to keep things running, the only option will be some kind of injection of money to consumers rather than banks. It’ll only work for a limited time before it becomes too inflationary, but it’s hard to see another path that can keep commodity demand strong enough to keep extraction going IMO.
Personally I’d give it till 2030 (+/- 2 years).
a prediction or guess involving the year 2030 usually sounds about right to me…
I am not confident that the central banks can keep the plates spinning until 2030. Not only are they going to have to pump up consumer demand but they are going to have to do that without a huge amount of ‘wiggle room’ to lower interest rates and in the face of constrained oil supply trying hard to push prices higher, a year or two hence.
The lack of investment we have seen in the oil industry these past few years looks to me like an existential threat to IC, however the details play out.
Central banks are also likely to have to mitigate a Minsky moment in the next few years in an environment of totally unrealistic asset prices, globally dispersed, and unprecedented amounts of debt.
An additional challenge is that each individual nation’s use of ‘funny money’ will have to be sufficiently balanced with that of other nations to ensure that the value of one currency is not rapidly eroded relative to others with all of the dangers that that entails.
+++++ difficult to see that happening… keeping in mind that Millennials cannot afford houses.. cars etc… and retiring people are downsizing… where is the driver?
Peak Oil May Be Imminent (Reynolds 2015) International Association for Energy Economics
https://www.scribd.com/document/378053568/Peak-Oil-May-Be-Imminent-Reynolds-2015
From the article;
That is, once peak oil starts, oil prices will rise. Once oil prices rise, systems will tighten due to the Neman Marcus strategy. Once systems tighten, you may get oil production declines rather than oil production increases. Consequently, supply is constrained all the more and oil prices rise all the more, inducing even greater government takes and so on. It could be a true oil price shock of epic proportions.
The Oil-Economy System
The world’s economy is really an oil-economy system that should be viewed as a physical-engineering system that relies on oil dependent technologies. When oil supplies decline, the oil based system is forced to use less oil, and consequently less oil-dependent technologies which then reduces productivity which must of necessity reduce GDP. Once GDP declines, monetary and fiscal policies, which are used to increase economic growth, kick in.
However, the G-8 (the top 8 developed countries) central banks’ abilities to use monetary policies are limited right now due to all of the quantitative easing already carried out for the 2008 financial crisis. Plus the G-8 governments’ abilities to use fiscal policies are limited due to all the debts already accrued to fight the same financial crisis. Therefore, the G-8 central banks and governments have no more leverage to change economic policy.
The world economy, then, may be rather less like riding an elephant with slow changes in momentum and slow turns and more like riding a surfboard where the slightest perturbation can cause a quick flip, which is exactly what happened to the former Soviet Union in the late 1980s. If the 2nd Hubbert oil cycle peaks soon, then oil prices will in-crease quickly, and then as happened in the U.S. and the West in 1970s, and as happened in the U.S.S.R. in the late 1980s, see Reynolds (2011a and 2011b), the peak in oil supplies could create a wage and price spiral that should increase the velocity of money and push all of that Federal Reserve quantitatively eased pile of high powered money back into the economy. This may create, as happened during the fall of the Soviet Union, hyperinflation with stagflation.
At that point, many will clamor for governments to put in place additional safety nets as the world’s economies suffer, yet governments around the world may soon enough be experiencing peak government and will not be able to help many people. Then it will be up to the free markets to overcome an oil shock, it’s just that there is very little ability for free markets to change the oil supply side and much more ability for free markets to change the oil demand side.
Indeed, it was the oil demand side that saved the U.S.S.R. when it endured a massive recession while the FSU adjusted its entire economy. The former Soviet oil shock of the late 1980s did not make the economy more efficient as much as it simply forced people to live with less. See Orlov (2008). Therefore, as the world is forced to endure an oil price shock, preparation cannot be done on a government level but on an individual, regional and corporate level.
The USSR represents the collapse of an oil exporter after an extended period of low prices. It defaulted on its debt as well.
Once oil prices rose again, and it began using Western ways (more debt within oil companies for example, and collaboration with outsiders), its production rose again.
to maybe simplify things further,
employment is energy-dependent.
thus…pre oil if you wanted a sword or a ploughshare, you needed a tree for charcoal, hand dug iron ore and a blacksmith to make it, one at a time.
the blacksmith was ”employed”…then you were ”employed” in using what he’d made…but that made swords and ploughshares extremely expensive, few could afford them.
thus the ”economic system” was self limiting—a village could maybe suppport one blacksmith, a couldnt ”outgrow” itself because the surrounding country couldn’t deliver more energy input than that
post fossil fuels, we could suddenly afford millions of blacksmiths, producing billions of metal things that we decided we needed.
that is what our employnent/commercial system is—the constant production of ”stuff” from raw materials
the business of buying and selling that ”stuff” is what provides the ongoing delusion of infinite growth
Economics is the production and consumption of goods and services by the application of energy using labor and capital to materials and activities as represented by money and debt in a system of entitlements and obligations.
“Labor without energy is a corpse, and capital without energy is a statue.”
How Puerto Rico’s Debt Created A Perfect Storm Before The Storm
The island’s own government borrowed billions of dollars to pay its bills, a practice that Puerto Rico’s current governor, Ricardo Rosselló, now calls “a big Ponzi scheme.”
https://www.npr.org/2018/05/02/607032585/how-puerto-ricos-debt-created-a-perfect-storm-before-the-storm
Puerto Rico (like Cuba, Haiti, and other island nations) badly needs very cheap energy supplies to operate in the world economy. One major problem is that electricity tends to be very high-priced, because it is impossible to create economic small-scale natural gas or coal systems. Island nations tend to burn oil as part of their electricity mix. This makes electricity very expensive, unless the cost of oil is very cheap. Wind and solar are not really the solutions that they are claimed to be. They don’t bring electricity prices down to the needed level. They are also very dependent on the electric grid, and this is easily disrupted by storms.
https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/business/Hurricane-Maria-Exposes-Problems-Within-Puerto-Ricos-Solar-Panel-Industry-471758064.html
The article indicates that the reason for them becoming roof ornaments is that they did not have backup batteries, so that they could not function if the grid was not functioning. The cost of backup batteries, plus the solar panels, would have been prohibitive for most people.
New report details experiences of graduates with student loan debt during the Great Recession
Marriage, housing, family decisions delayed; employment choices made based on the cost of education
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/05/180502104040.htm
UK Government at risk of ‘collapse’ as May warned by MPs Brexit customs partnership will sink her
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/6190095/theresa-may-told-her-government-will-collapse-over-eu-customs-deal/
new record high for US oil production:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/02/oil-markets-rising-us-crude-inventories-and-record-production-in-focus.html
“U.S. oil production also hit a fresh record of 10.62 million barrels per day (bpd), a jump of more than a quarter since mid-2016.
The United States now produces more crude oil than top exporter and OPEC-kingpin Saudi Arabia.
Only Russia currently pumps more oil, at around 11 million bpd.”
High prices and high oil production can be expected to go together. It is when prices fall that production falls.
dunno why i keep banging my head on this particular wall—i must be a masochist
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=33&t=6
in 2017 the usa consumed over 19m barrels of oil per day—which means that twice as much is consumed as is produced.
which is another way of describing bankruptcy
Actually, it is not as bad as you say. Current numbers show that US liquids consumption (including biofuels, natural gas liquids, and other “stuff”) was 19.9 million barrels per day. In comparison, US production (on the same basis, not “crude oil”) was 15.6 million barrels per day, or about 78% of the total. This is phenomenally good compared to Europe and Japan. Also, the amounts at the end of the year were a lot higher than at the beginning of the year. Production on this basis was 16.8 million barrels a day in November and 16.5 million barrels a day in December. So toward the end of the year, the US was producing an amount equal to more than 80% of its oil consumption. (It was also a net exporter of natural gas and of coal.)
Peak oilers have a standard set of woes that they like to go through, and this is one of them. The standard belief is becoming less and less true by the day. The problem you are talking about is especially true in Europe and Japan.
The real issues, as I see them, are
(1) Is the average price of the energy mix too high for users?
(2) Are energy producers obtaining a high enough prices for their output? This price needs to cover needed tax revenue for governments and necessary reinvestment to keep production up.
(3) Is total energy consumption rising fast enough to keep the economic system from collapsing?
By the way, the only way I know to get US total oil production is from the International Energy Browser. Total world liquids production is shown as follows in 000 barrels per day:
2015 – 96,707
2016 – 97,189
2017 – 97,977
World crude + condensate oil production is shown as
2015 – 80,571
2016 – 80,677
2017 – 81,002
So higher prices in 2017 allowed a greater increase in production than in 2016 with respect to both total liquids and crude and condensate.
Tesla stock drops as Elon Musk gives bizarre earnings call
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/02/tesla-stock-drops-as-elon-musk-gives-bizarre-earnings-call.html
“Tesla stock dropped more than 5% in after-hours trading as executives cut off Wall Street analysts in an earnings call dubbing their questions on Model 3 gross margins “boring.”
CEO Elon Musk took several questions, instead, from Gali Russell, a 25-year-old retail investor in Tesla and Youtuber.”
Musk may be melting down…the loss of Amber Heard may be too much…
but…
wait a minute!
there’s hope on the way!
“In answering questions from Gali Russell, Musk also revealed that Model Y production is not expected to begin for another two years, and that the vehicle won’t be produced at Tesla’s main, Fremont, Calif. factory.
Musk said, “We will not be starting production of the Model Y at the end of next year. It’s probably closer to 24 months from now, 2020… We could not fit the Model Y production at Fremont. We’re jammed to the gills here. One thing I know for sure is it’s not here.””
there it is!
Model Y!
the 2020s are going to be great!
The price of Musk cutting off analysts? For Tesla, it’s $2 billion
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-results/the-price-of-cutting-off-analysts-for-tesla-its-2-billion-idUSKBN1I32UC
He needs to get his ABC’s and 1,2,3’s in order first. Starting at the wrong end methinks.
plan B is digital currency replacing physical cash this will give central banks the ability to be permanently in negative interest rate land which should kick the can down the road for another twenty years giving us a slow decline . The results of this slow decline will be the elimination of the middle-class.Precious metals investment will keep you from starving to death as the slow decline leads to a mass die-off of the middle class and lower classes.Think of precious metals as the last good investment it will be just like bitcoin an ounce of silver will be 20 000 dollars which will mean financial freedom for precious metal holders The clock is ticking don’t miss out on your chance to survive what’s coming after01.06.18. Mark my words the elders have planned for this the new system will only be able to support a lower population . Your only chance is to hoard items of value along with precious metals. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-dollar-trade-war-reserve-currency-sdr-by-andrew-sheng-and-xiao-geng-2018-04
How do we eat precious metals?
Adonis – mega dunce
adonis!
now less than a month to go…
is this the ultimate excitement or what?
June 1 is not a Monday so I’m just a bit skeptical.
I agree on the negative, nominal and sometimes real, interest.
But that doesn’t lead to an instant die-off, just slowly grinding into poverty.
One thought: could large multinationals operate with a loss indefinitely, at least losing money more slowly than gvmt bonds?
I doubt their shareholders would be impressed. And their borrowing costs would rise.
If all roads leads to losing money, losing them slowly could be prefered.
But I agree – best keep the press going so at least nominal values are positive.
Color me skeptical about the above scenario, although I believe we have seen nothing yet in terms of future attempts to more authoritarian rule to face the crises. Simply put if they force permanent negative interest rates and cripple large/ish cash transactions (already a fact to large degree), they will have no problem to choke off other points, e.g. above mentioned transaction in the metals..
Sorry, there is no way how to fly unnoticed under the radar these times, you have to be member of some grouping first (protected racket), be it bankers cabal, politician to hire etc. And as long as you are somewhat useful they will let you enjoy the little spoils a bit..
As long as you can produce more than you consume you will be an appreciated slave.
I’d guess most people do not understand “cash”, ie fiat money. Think of entangled photons, and of that piece of paper with a number on it as one of a pair of photons. Somewhere there is a ledger entry which says “01234567”, for example, is worth something. If the issuer of the fiat money decides to alter or delete that ledger entry, the value of your “cash” instantly changes, even though the change is not apparent until you try to get the bank to make good on your loan to them.
Don’t think this is just about banks defaulting on promises to pay, concentrate on the idesa that the banks are well motivated to manipulate ledger entries to their advantage.
She didn’t get treated at the ER. But she got a $5,751 bill for an ice pack anyways
https://www.vox.com/2018/5/1/17261488/er-expensive-medical-bill
Tesla posts worst-ever quarterly loss, but says Model 3 production on track
http://business.financialpost.com/investing/tesla-posts-worst-ever-quarterly-loss-but-says-model-3-production-on-track
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-burns-cash/img/bills2.gif
Tesla Burns $12 Million Per Day As It Scrambles To Ramp Model 3 Production
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-02/tesla-burns-12-million-day-it-scrambles-ramp-model-3-production
Elon cracking under the pressure?
“Elon Musk is known for his outspoken views on a range of subjects, but his candour appears to have cost Tesla $2 billion (£1.47bn) overnight.
“That’s the total wiped off the electric vehicle company’s market value, seemingly in response to the CEO’s rude attitude during a quarterly earnings call yesterday.
“Tesla’s total market capitalisation – its total share value multiplied by shares held – was $51.3 billion (£37.7bn) at the close of the Nasdaq stock exchange.
“The billionaire branded one industry analyst a ‘boring bonehead’ during the bizarre session, saying another’s ‘questions are so dry they are killing me’.
“His lack of respect for the participants looks to have led to a five per cent nosedive in the business’ shares after trading closed yesterday…”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5685057/The-price-cutting-analysts-For-Tesla-2-billion.html
Farmers reap just pennies of total food cost, study finds
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/os-farmers-share-of-food-20180502-story.html
Things are becoming worse in South Africa. Eleven farm attacks in 100 hours.
http://www.quotehd.com/imagequotes/authors54/meir-kahane-clergyman-quote-no-trait-is-more-justified-than-revenge.jpg
Don’t we have a doomie prepper lurker on this site who is in South Africa?
Doesn’t matter where you are though — if you have an organic farm — if you have food — if you have solar panels … if you have smoke coming out of a chimney post BAU …. you are a target.
You are a dead man walking.
Tra la f789ing la…. just ignore those facts…. I know I know… it makes you feel better… kinda like how stewpid steve over there on scirrocco report has his golden security blanket… all hell breaks loose but if you have gold you will be fine….
Delusions abound.
i believe the Persians gave Emperor Crassus all the liquid gold he could drink.
Wasn’t Crassus the third member of the Triumvirate rather than Emperor?
how about co-Emperor? The others were J. Ceasar and Pompei. Then there were only two, then there was one.
Australia offert asylum for white south african farmers.
I heard people talking about that as a possibility, but I hadn’t heard any news of it actually happening. I looked it up and apparently they are offering something called humanitarian visas, which is good.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/03/south-africa-hails-retraction-of-australian-ministers-offer-to-white-farmers
Why is it that nobody offered black slaves ‘humanitarian visas’
Humanitarian visas didn’t exist back then. Not that such visas are guarantee even now. If you read the article you’d know South Africa farms still have to apply to like everyone else, and I’ve hear nothing about a grantee for them
Here is some info from in Australia for 2015–16 offshore visa grants by top ten countries of birth.
https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/about/corporate/information/fact-sheets/60refugee
Countries Number of visas granted
Iraq 4358
Syria 4261
Burma (Myanmar) 1951
Afghanistan 1714
Congo (DRC) 657
Bhutan 515
Somalia 437
Iran 337
Ethiopia 337
Eritrea 291
Other 694
Total 15,552
So don’t worry I’m sure many more of the Anglo people you pretend not to hate will die painful deaths tortures by black South Africans. As some some white people have done bad things throughout history surely that’s what we all deserve right?
‘So don’t worry I’m sure many more of the Anglo people you pretend not to hate will die painful deaths tortures by black South Africans. As some some white people have done bad things throughout history surely that’s what we all deserve right?’
I have to admit… I kinda like the idea.
https://aseemrastogi2.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/life-love-quotes-what-goes-around-comes.jpg
And let’s not forget what the Brits did to the Boers in those wars…. when they were losing they herded all the women and children of the Boers into concentration camps and literally starved them to death ….
‘Whatever it takes’ is not a new concept….
The thing is…. humans have long memories…. it will be very bad to be a Jones or a Smith in SA when BAU goes down…. it’s already getting bad….
Can we get a report from the FW lurker who mentioned his doomier prepper camp in some valley in SA? How’s it all goin down there? Must be getting a little bit anxious about all this…..
I think I said… like I say to all Doomie Preppers…. I told you so.
This is the fate that awaits all doomie preppers… horrendous violence will rain down upon thee… when 7.8 billion hungry vicious humans are unleashed…. you are wasting your time.
https://youtu.be/I6eQ78HCGEA
in the 1700s, the dutch turned up in south africa. to them it was ”empty land”
they had guns, the africans did not. the records of white oppression in africa from then until apartheid ended in the 1980s is appalling, and would have gone on had it not been for international condemnation.
little point in complaining about the results of it now, (sins of the fathers, etc etc)
in 1885, a european conference divided up africa between the then powers of europe. They proceeded to loot the country. Read up on the record of the belgians in the congo if your stomach can stand it.
As a side issue, are we to expect the white people in south africa to be dumped back on the shores of europe?
the current reaction in south africa to white occupation is inevitable—the africans now have guns, and are using them.
the situation in africa will get worse, because they are at the mercy of overpopulation climate change and energy depletion, just like the rest of us. As it begins to bite, the native african people will see the cause of their problem as the white man…(.before he showed up, they lived in their own eden, so to speak…)
they have the same delusions as everyone else.
So there will be civil war, and mutial self destruction. But no one will intervene, because when the africans have reduced themselves by 90% the land will still be rich in resources.
this is happening already, Africa is being looted again, this time by the chinese:
https://extranewsfeed.com/we-must-keep-our-wheels-turning-93c95d8f066f
and the africans are only too willing to cooperate in the looting—after all, it was africans who sold africans to the original slave traders
**********
All part of the collapsing world prosperity of course—taking on different aspects in different places at different times.
but all under the same driving forces, and all under a cloak of denial
As to australia, the native peoples there were listed under ”flora and fauna” in administrative terms.
Which tells you all you need to know about colonisation of that bit of the british empire
There is more than one view of this situation. Some think that the order brought on by colonial rule allowed the countries to progress far more than self-rule since that date.
Based on energy consumption per capita, Africa has been going nowhere under self-rule.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2018/04/per-capita-energy-consumption-italy-vs-africa1.png
the productive states of europe functioned on the legacy of the roman rule of law.
this manifested itself in different ways, over a period of 2000 years….eventually this morphed into the system that exists today
the african continent didnt have that benefit, instead we expected them to follow the european way immediately or be enslaved, or both
so now we have the result—which roughly equates to the period of tribal anarchy in europe after the romans left
Looks like a heart rate monitor on me when I hit the rock cut post BAU
There’s a parallel story in South Africa of riots against immigrants from other parts of Africa, as one would expect in a declining situation.
Survival Rule: don’t stick out! Black, brown, yellow or white. If you are not with the majority, get out.
I continue to be astonished at the stories of naive westerners – usually Brits – moving to S. Africa even though the information is readily available: do they not do any research?
I remember chatting to a S. African at a party in London some 20 years ago: ‘When I realised that my life was always having an automatic on me and a shotgun in the car, living behind high walls and razor-wire, and having a ‘rape-cage’ (anti-rape steel barriers) in the house, I knew it was time to go’.
that ”grouping” will happen everywhere as resources go into decline, because one sees security with one’s own kind, and rejection of others.
policing requires surplus energy—that is the critical factor that most reject or fail to understand.
when policing effectively ceeases, all hell will break loose
I know you are correct in this Norman, even though I believe the UK is a very tolerant society currently. I might see mass immigration as a deliberate attempt to sew chaos once resources begin declining and therefore providing an excuse for martial law, except that governments are usually reactive rather than proactive and incapable of planning so far ahead.
thats one reason the east europeans were encouraged in—they are white christians
Initially I could see the minorities around the world suffering… but because there will not be enough (there actually wont be any) … but that will quickly degrade and it will be white on white … black on black… brown on brown…
Where’s that oil industry chap who dropped in on us .. telling us about his self sufficient chateau in SA last year?
Yooooooo HOOOOOOOOOO…. wazzzzzz up?
Perhaps he has been overun….
Did I mention….
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mYK0QAEn8rs/VA5jKiQMH0I/AAAAAAAAMGI/M9P7xxsyiRQ/s1600/keep-calm-but-i-told-you-so.png
As a side issue, are we to expect the white people in south africa to be dumped back on the shores of europe?
https://nataliaantonova.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/cannot-handle-the-hysterical-laughter.gif
I guess the Dutch blame the other whites for f789ing them over in the Boer Wars …
WTFWTFWTF…. Imagine their’s no countries… Give peace a chance… It’s easy if you take enough Abilify… Kooombay my lord. etc. so it apparently goes
This is a MUST watch (check it out Nope)
‘There ain’t no white person in this room would change places with me – and I’m rich’
Hey nope would you change places….
Seriously wouldja????
https://youtu.be/0k_kIpxfWxA
I’ve heard a new PC word. First it was gl..ob..al w..ar..Ming then it was climate change, now it is “overpopulation climate change”. A continuation of the nonscientific BS.
Overpopulation results in resource depletion and habitat destruction and ecological waste. The albedo of the earth however is globally unaffected by man. Local changes, such as forest destruction, are not “climate change”.
a few days ago–i put a link on here for the flat earth society—perhaps you missed it
If the pizza delivery boy turns up late… no doubt kkklllimy ccchhhange is involved… it probably rained in America because I burned a bucket of coal overnight here in NZ… forcing him to drive more slowly on his scooter… making him 3 minutes and 17 seconds late….
https://tworiversblog.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/butterfly-effect.jpg
Viewing Employment Without Rose-Colored Glasses
http://realinvestmentadvice.com/viewing-employment-without-rose-colored-glasses/
“… every recession followed interim lows in jobless claims and the unemployment rate. We are confident that the dynamics leading into the next recession will not be any different.”
this conclusion has that kind of oh-yeah-that’s-obvious feel…
a recession ends and job numbers get better, but the numbers get worse as the next recession comes, and not before…
it will be interesting to see if that labor participation rate ever increases again…
I kind of doubt it…
In Mexico, $2-per-hour workers make $40,000 SUVs
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2017/09/26/low-wages-mexico-auto-plants/106023308/
Water seeks its level… if you pay 35 bucks and hour… you have to price higher… you sell fewer vehicles… you get a deflationary death spiral
Or simply rationalize away the humanoid automatons and upgrade the production line to silicon and metal workers.
Good riddance meat bags!
Our finite number of owners chant in unison:
MOAR ROBOTS!!!
Tesla apologists rationalizing burning $6500 per minute
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/05/elon-musk-says-dont-worry-about-teslas-burn-rate-he-might-be-right/
Gas prices hit three-year high nationwide
https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/gas-prices-hit-three-year-high-nationwide-1223545411909
People have already forgotten 2006-2008. Ford is eliminating all but two cars from their lineup.
If gas prices hit 2006 levels people are gonna be really sad they bought their Ford F750.
I guess cutting all car manufacturing was not popular in the board room!
Stephen Hawking’s final work turns theories about the universe on their head
It is based on string theory and turns science on its head, predicting the universe is finite, rather than infinite as previously suggested, and far simpler than many current theories about the big bang say.
https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/cambridge-news/stephen-hawking-hertog-final-theory-14604745
It’s a finite world and universe! OFU! 🙂
but in the same paper he say they are multiverse
and also this just a theory
A scientific theory is an explanation of an aspect of the natural world that can be repeatedly tested, in accordance with the scientific method, using a predefined protocol of observation and experiment.[1][2] Established scientific theories have withstood rigorous scrutiny and embody scientific knowledge.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_theory
We have to cross an awfully lot of scientific theories off the list with that definition.
Forecasts of future climate change do not represent a scientific theories under this definition. Peak oil is not a scientific theory under this definition.
A scientific theory might instead describe the situation in which two chemicals combine to form a third chemical (temperature, pressure), for example. Once scientists start getting into modeling, theres is no way to have a scientific theory, at least as far as I can see.
I will add that, as a professional geologist ret., I have followed the evolution of climate science for many years now. I know how to read a scientific study and also know if a study is biased or corrupted in some way.
Climate science is accurately documenting these massive earth changes and these changes mean big trouble for the future.
No scam. No lies. No Al Gore plots. Or other such nonsense.
But what happens when in the future is still a big mystery. The models do not assume the collapse of the world economy, for example. Scientists cannot really test the models. Mostly they can tell if the models are internally consistent.
But Al Gore said we’d be facing 7m sea rises within the next few years
Go f789 yourself and the rest of your kkkklimate chhhhange green groopie re tar ded MORE ons
Kkkkklimate Cccchnnange is a hoax
Lets check out Leo’s sea level island where he is spending millions on a cement eco resort
http://www.refinedguy.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/leonardo-dicaprio-blackadore-caye-belize.jpg
This is beyond ridiculous… you kk grooopies are not even worth the a handful of fecaled toilet paper. This is like someone insisted 2+2 = 9
I would also add that Guy McPherson is speaking for his own personal assessment in claiming exact dates of human extinction.
McPherson is claiming that the totality of climate research indicates human extinction may happen at a certain date in the near future. His opinion may or may not be correct but he does not represent the stated findings of the body of climate science.
Ya and the kkklllimate has been changing dramatically since the beginning of time…
DUH.
Change your handle to Dunce
Peak oil is a scientific theory…..All theories are true. Name one that isn’t?
You need a “sarc” tag on that one.
Peak oil theory is based on the observed rise, peak, fall, and depletion of aggregate production rate in oil fields over time. It is often confused with oil depletion; however, whereas depletion refers to a period of falling reserves and supply, peak oil refers to peak, before terminal depletion occurs. The concept of peak oil is often credited to geologist M. King Hubbert whose 1956 paper first presented a formal theory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
Peak oil theory is based on the observation of what happens when the economy is functioning normally–there are adequate energy supplies; governments are operating; if one oil field depletes, another takes its place.
It does not reflect what happens in a finite world. The economy stops functioning normally, when total per capita energy supplies stop rising quickly enough. This likely happens before oil supply turns down. Low energy prices of many kinds start becoming a problem (think of 2014 and following). It is the low prices that likely bring supply down. If not low prices, it is failing banks, or failing governments brought on by failing banks. The collapse of the economy does not wait for oil to peak!
Only on OFW are peak oilers seen as optimists. Ask any other person (not including Guy) and they are seen as pessimists. Guy is the only pessimist I know of wrt OFW.
You are probably correct.
Can Microbes Manipulate Our Minds?
https://www.technologynetworks.com/neuroscience/news/can-microbes-manipulate-our-minds-300210
‘In addition, our physiology may have adapted to make use of our associated microbes. Similar to the ‘hygiene hypothesis’, which posits that an absence of microbes impairs immune system development, we propose that we may have evolved to depend on our microbes for normal brain function, such that a change in our gut microbiome could have effects on behaviour.’
“It’s only Tuesday, and already it has been a record week for mergers and acquisitions, and indeed a record year so far, easily surpassing the previous, pre-financial crisis peak of 2007.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/05/01/must-stop-merger-madness-destroys-capitalism-within/
“The value of merger and acquisition (M&A) deals already done so far this year amounts to $1.7trn, says the FT. That’s now running ahead of the pre-financial crisis highs. That’s a bad sign, in that you pretty much always get a lot of M&A activity near the top of the market, rather than near the bottom.”
https://moneyweek.com/merger-and-acquisition-deals-are-being-done-faster-than-ever/
The reason for the phenomenon of M&A activity near the top of the market, rather than near the bottom, is because it represents the “big getting bigger.” It tends to add to the problems we have with a hierarchical society. It tends to concentrate wealth at the top, and push down the poor.
The antidote is recession/collapse.
““The global economy remains highly levered, and sensitive to interest rate movements,” he wrote. “Debt sustainability hinges on low debt service ratios, which in turn are predicated on persistently low interest rates. This will constrain central bank efforts to normalize rates.””
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-01/pimco-sees-high-debt-compressing-central-bank-interest-rates
It is hard to believe that the US Federal Reserve doesn’t seem to have figured this out.
Powell has got a plan, and his sticking to it so vehemently will ultimately be a mistake. The big difference between him and previous Fed Chairs will be his reluctance to alter that plan as conditions change. That might mean he keeps raising rates too long into an economic slowdown, but it could just as easily mean he doesn’t increase quickly enough in a dramatic economic uptick.
Powell’s reaction function is much, much less sensitive to short-term market and economic indicator fluctuations than previous Fed Chairs.
What does that mean for markets? The most obvious conclusion is that the yield curve will be much more volatile than I previously expected. Unfortunately trading yield-curve-options is something best suited for those with ISDAs.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-02/powell-has-plan
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
There was quite a lag last time.
“The private sector may hold the real clues to recession risk…
““The private sector yield curve reading stands at zero, or right on the threshold where trouble can be expected to begin,” Gave wrote in a note published on Tuesday. “Should this spread move into negative territory, I would expect a financial accident to occur outside of the U.S., a U.S. recession, or possibly both.”
“Either a U.S. recession has taken place within a year of the private sector yield curve inverting, or a “financial accident” has occurred in other economies with currency links to the greenback, according to Gave’s data…
“Based on this measure, “we are entering dangerous territory,” he concluded. If the private sector curve inverts “zombie companies will fail and capital spending will be cut, as firms move to service debt and repay principal. Workers will get laid off and the economy will move into recession.””
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-01/there-s-a-new-curve-in-town-and-it-s-flashing-red-gavekal-says
I hadn’t thought about a lack of spread in corporate interest rates to be a problem.
I always thought that the problem was a bank problem–they “borrow short and lend long.” If there isn’t a spread, they can’t make money. Also, if they try to get around this problem by paying too low a rate on deposits, they find themselves with a disintermediation problem, because those with savings can find a higher rate in money market funds and other funds that pay higher rates. This seems to be the problem now.
I suppose with little spread between short term borrowing rates and commercial bond rates, commercial customers would have little incentive to “borrow short.” They could just as well lock in a similar longer-term rate in the bond market. This would also tend to reduce business for banks.
If US interest rates get too high relative to other countries, there is a different problem. People will borrow in the other country’s currency and buy US treasuries paying a higher interest rate. (They also will seek a derivative to lock in the particular exchange rate in effect at the time of the transaction.) This is the carry trade. One risk is that the derivatives will eventually fail, if there is a sudden change in change in currency relativities.
Using the carry trade would seem also to have the potential to produce bubbles. It might also affect currency relativities.
Global military spending rose to $1.7 trillion in 2017
http://www.dw.com/en/sipri-global-military-spending-rose-to-17-trillion-in-2017/a-43610647
Malcolm understood fake news!
https://imgur.com/a/TtCkqoE
The stupid thing about this, is that the media is overwhelmingly liberal and is sympathetic to black people claiming white people are oppressing them constantly.
Paranoid schizophrenia is the most common type of schizophrenia. People with paranoid delusions are unreasonably suspicious of others.
https://www.webmd.com/schizophrenia/guide/schizophrenia-paranoia#1
There are more black people in jail now than there were in slavery during the 1850’s…
The black people in jail have a roof over their head. They are fed enough calories. This is better than a lot of people in the world have it. They don’t have to work a whole lot of hours.
I was a juror at a trial in which policemen testified that people (poor, but not particularly black) would try to get into jail, to avoid being outside during the cold months of the year. This is our free lodging program for people without jobs. In theory, they even get health care thrown in. Where else can they get such a deal?
This is a rather unnecessarily cynical opinion. I imagine that even for poor people in the third world, the average standard of living in US prisons is hardly preferable to their quotidian lives, especially since it involves largely unpaid menial labour. Unless of course the *only* alternative is death (either as punishment or as consequence of living conditions).
Perhaps I am being too cynical. I am sure that other forces were/are at work as well. Rich people not wanting burglars/drug addicts next door, for example.
Mental hospitals used to provide a lot of housing/food/care for people who could not take care of themselves. Then, in the 1960s, drugs came along that in theory could make some of these folks better. States did what they could to push these people out of the mental hospitals. These former mental patients, and people like them, are a disproportionate share of today’s drug addicts (self-medicating). They are also over-represented in prison populations.
There were also “poor farms,” or poorhouses. According to Wikipedia,
I remember going as a child and singing Christmas carols at the County Home, which was one of these facilities. This was well after 1950. Any economy has a large number of people who are somewhat retard, or have somewhat of metal health problem, or need some type of long-term assistance. Once these facilities were gone, there needed to be someplace to put all of these people.
It has become fashionable to house (as few as possible) of these people in community settings, with a rotating staff of low-paid health care givers. Some of these people in these community settings could work, if someone would provide transportation for them, but there doesn’t seem to be staffing for this. Instead, the residents sit around all day watching television.
I am sure that quite a few of the drop outs to the system end up as homeless or in jails.
@Gail, that is a different issue though. If someone is actually mentally ill/retarded (as opposed to merely having some disorder/addiction), they aren’t likely to be sent to prison for minor felonies.
My point was that it isn’t valid to say the prison system – in the developed world at least – serves to house and feed the poor. It’s a more complex issue, so your cynicism kind of defeats itself.
As for opioid use, while you’re correct that it is strongly correlated with mental disorders, stress and unhappiness in general also play a role.
I am trying to point out that there is more than one way of thinking of the prison/jail system. We have heard the story so often one way (send “We bad people to jail” or “We send way too many blacks to jail”) that we don’t think about the other functions it serves.
When we don’t have jobs that pay well for all of these people, and we have decided to cut back on other safety nets for these people, we end up with a large number who land in the local jail or in the prison system.
For example, THIS IS HOW YOU END THE FOSTER CARE TO PRISON PIPELINE:
https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/criminal-justice/reports/2016/07/18/141447/disabled-behind-bars/
Disabled behind bars
From the New England Journal of Medicine
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1606083
People who have opportunities… are far less likely to commit crimes
Exactly! If people have jobs that pay well available to them, they are unlikely to get into a life of crime. Also, there is less of the “envy” and “inferiority” issues. It is the depression that goes with feelings of inferiority and hopelessness that seem to lead to drug addiction and crime.
I know and have worked with these people. They keep doing things that they enjoy, such as recreational drugs, gambling, and fathering numerous children that they can not support. The white legal system has deemed these things illegal so blacks make up a disproportional amount of incarcerated individuals.
My grandfather was born in 1902 in the US South. He told this story that he said one farm owner told him. The farmer had a black man who was his top field hand that for some reason often got arrested on the weekend. After having to bail out the man yet again on Monday morning he ask the man why he kept getting arrested. The man replied, “Boss man, if you were a black man for one Saturday night you would understand.”
Most of them are not bad, we have just made their fun a crime.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5654107/Port-Authority-commissioner-filmed-flashing-golden-badge-traffic-stop.html
If she’s black… she gets tasered and jailed…
I’ve recently become a fan of some form of “Employer of Last Resort” or guaranteed job for these reasons. I understand the objections to this program, however I believe we wind up bearing the costs one way or another. And an ELR program guaranteeing a job could be a more efficient way of addressing this.
Coming from an agricultural community I’ve kicked around the idea of government subsidized agricultural employment. This could also help reduce some of the demand for immigrant labor.
Bottom line is that everyone who is going to stay alive is going to consume resources in some fashion. We don’t have full flexibility but we can choose to influence the mix of outcomes.
I’ve often cited the work of James Gilligan, the foremost expert on prison and felon psychology, on this matter.
Gilligan spent many years working in prisons and concluded that essentially violent criminals do what they do for a sense of respect or significance. Addressing recidivism is actually much easier than we thing, but have been so far unwilling to make the moral and practical compromises.
http://internationalpsychoanalysis.net/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/shamegilligan.pdf
employer of last resort fits my own concept of standing 100 men in a circle, with shovels….as each man digs a hole he sells the dirt to the man on his left, while buying dirt from the man on his right to fill his hole in again
they use money printed by the government
my point being….that employment must have a productive purpose—otherwise it is pointless
Not so sure about that…
I ski… the ski hill employs hundreds of people… whose main goal is to get me to the top of the hill so I can slide down… then go back up again…
Not a whole lot different than digging holes and filling them in ….
Aren’t virtually all activities similar to this — other than those involving the extraction or resources and producing food?
the ski helpers bring in food and power to help them do their job, you bring in energy to do your skiing thing
then theres the jobs you create in hospital care after you break something
not the same thing at all…all supported by outside energy resources
How about an economy where people get paid to drive round and round and round in cars 14 hours per day… with stops at the grocery store and petrol station…
Where all industrial activities are geared towards supporting this mono-economy.
hole digging saves on tyres and petrol
if you sell the dirt to outsiders—then they have to expend energy to fetch/buy it
this explains it better than i can
https://damnthematrix.wordpress.com/2018/05/02/its-the-consumption-stupid/
The author did a good job of explain the problem, I agree.
A Steady State Economy is equally absurd.
@Norman – you are correct that what they are doing is not “productive” in the traditional sense of the term – i.e. that the dollars paid through ELR would not make a profit on the open market
The question is whether or not paying people to do marginal work for a minimum wage is more productive than the alternative – which is either no production (unemployment, which represents propping up demand by letting free loaders consume purchased products) or in some cases is destructive.
This is by no means a comprehensive solution. At best it means “using up what we have faster.” I’m more interested in the description – which seems to be that we let a large and growing welfare/criminal class exist to preserve other class interests. No moral claims – maybe this is the right thing to do, or not – but it does seem to be what we are doing.
Why is it better paying people doing something entirely meaningless than just paying them the same for nothing?
You can always find something that is at least a bit meaningful for people to do. You can have them read stories to children. You can have them make fancy patterns in stones in the bottom of creeks. You can make concrete substitutes for rocks. You can build homes no one can afford, and you can build bridges that virtually no one will use. You can hire people to act as personal guides in museums. The list is endless.
You can have them write academic papers!
as i understand it, us prisons are private enterprises
the higher level of ”stock” the better the returns for ”investors”
sounds like another term for human trafficking to me
There can be other downsides. Prison rape?
Another sh t u pd comment. There are more people alive than for most of humanity’s time on Earth. Poor Blk Americans disproportionately commit more violent crimes. I wish it was drug trafficking, drug possessions and unpaid fines that they’re locked up for–because a claim that they are being singled out for harsher punishment would have more merit but that’s not the case.
More to the point most liberals don’t want to live next to poor black people. Many liberals are wealthy. Many gentrified areas are liberal. When white liberals move in, black people are forced to move out.
There are few liberals on FW… nor conservatives… so end that line of thought.
I have no issue with living next to black people – but I obviously would take issue with living next to a known criminal – black white purple or green.
The issue is – why are so many black people committing crimes? The reason is that they have been treated worse than dogs since they came to America – and they continue to experience real road blocks to inclusiveness in the white man’s world.
You would not of course know about that – because you clearly have never had a conversation about these issues with a black man
Fast Eddy, the creationist believer in Enlightenment liberal “Tabula Rasa”.
Also, think of what would happen if jails were closed. The jails provide a lot of jobs. The people who are being released are people who, before they were jailed, were disproportionately unable to find jobs that paid well enough to support themselves in the job market. Closing the jails would eliminate a lot of jobs, and add a lot of people with marginal skills to the job market. Taxes could go down, so I suppose that closing jails would appeal to a lot of people. Dmitry Orlov says that when collapse occurs, a likely outcome is that jails will be closed–jailing people is not a service that we can continue to afford.
I think the wage problem is the real problem. Having a large poor underclass is a form of wage protectionism. Whether you offer free jobs to people or have welfare this competes with private sector minimum wage jobs. So we’ll pay jailers and public safety workers more in order to maintain the spectrum of living standards, instead of having a broad minimum wage class which pulls down some of the slightly higher paid low-skill compensation.
until transportation came in, in uk most crimes were a hanging offence
i wonder if extreme punishments in the past were a way of population control. the pressure to reduce the number of mouths to feed has been around for 10,000+ years.
i think it was because jails were a drain on the public purse, and unaffordable.
Is the percentage of black people in jail in the USA now higher than the percentage that were slaves in the 1850s?
Maybe black people should stop committing such a large disproportionate amount of crime.
maybe they committ more crimes because they are dispossessed
Maybe some people should stop endlessly making excuses for them no mater what they do, or fail to do.
until 1865, black africans were property in the usa
if you study their history since then, it has been a period of constant unrelenting oppression at every level—if i were a black african-american i would be seriously pissed off with the system that had oppressed me, and excluded me from the era of american prosperity of the 20th c
collective resentment has been inevitable
I am surprised the blacks don’t just burn the country to the ground….
But then I am surprised that ‘the terrorists’ don’t rent apartments and offices on lower floors in buildings in New York city…. over time bring in incendiary/explosive materials… then light them up…. and entertain me.
It’s kinda like the Algerian traitors who fought with the French during the Algerian civil war who were allowed into France afterwards…
They were and are not treated as equals… could not find jobs… endure racism… which causes them to lash out… which makes the situation worse as the white French citizens hate them even more….
And it goes on and on and on.
It is very easy as a white man to sit back and say stop making excuses.
The funny thing is … my grandparents came from eastern Europe to Canada — they – and my father – who were white — experienced a great deal of racism … it is very difficult to get a management level job unless you had an anglo saxon name…. likewise if you were French living in Quebec… les anglais ran the show….
That is just a whiff of what people of colour have to deal with. When I mention that to anglo friends… they cannot believe it… they are clueless
You are clueless.
Fast Eddy, t’s hard to believe you have anglo friend. Does he know how much you despise his kind, or do you keep that to yourself?
I don’t despise my many anglo friends — if I did I would have very few friends … because 90%+ of my friends are anglos….
I am simply pointing out that people are generally oblivious to the perspectives of others….
i accept anybody as a friend
they are in short supply as it is
Norman Pagett, Maybe after slavery the African’s should have all been returned to their continent where they wouldn’t have had to live under white oppression. I’m sure they would have been much better off that way. One good thing about the possible end of BAU. There will no longer be any compulsions for people who hate each other to live together pretending to be of one tribe.
They actually tried that – check into Liberia — and guess what the former slaves did when they were returned…. you got it … they enslaved the Africans…. just like the persecuted j ews… persecute the Palestinians…
That’s what we do … we are humans… and our time has come….. extinction awaits….
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
And the funny thing is — we cheer for the oppressor… those MORE onic Palestinians… they just let those Israelis steal their land!!! What is wrong with them??????
after 250 years the african peoples were to be dumped back on the african coast?
Where exactly?
“after 250 years the african peoples were to be dumped back on the african coast?
Where exactly?”
Who said anything about African’s in American being returned to Africa in the present day? I’m saying that without external pressure people will natural congregate with those they view as their own kind so we wont have the situation we have today where people who hate each other live together in one country pretending that they are all one people.
If there is some kind of end of the current system in the chaos people would seek their own kind whatever they see that as in order to ride out the chaos. After things eventually stabilize who knows what the new world’s boundaries would look like, but at least people would be with their own kind which seems like an improvement.
Are/was blacks treated better in UK? And is the situation better?
the police don’t shoot any and there were fewer lynchings
and media in 18th century and 19th century were overwhelmingly pander to white people
say that they are civilize the savages
the pendulum always swing man
“hey are civilize the savages”
There’s some truth to that. There are cultural practices everyone here would find abhorrent if they came across a less complex society. The current outrage today is over female genital mutilation. What is normal to one culture is practically evil to another.
And we drop plane loads of bombs on innocent people on a regular basis…
Genital mutilation ….Big F789ing deal ….
payback is always a bit-ch.
Funny how people hate the blacks in America…. I know a few black people from the US… they have overcome the odds and are successful within the white man’s world.
One of my very good friends – we gave him a desk space when he started up his company so I got to know him very well — once mentioned when he and I and my brother were out for dinner after work once that he did not know who Neil Young was…. we couldn’t believe it….
He said — you need to understand what it is like in America —- I worked in a bank in Chicago — the white people were cordial — however not once would was I invited out to dinner or for a drink with white work colleagues… never ….
And he is one of the most gregarious engaging people you are ever going to meet — has an MBA… etc etc…
That is how difficult it is for a person of colour in America.
Oh … and he would be the first one to say yes the blacks are f789ed over…. but that is no excuse — get off your a sss …. and overcome….
Who’s fault is he that he doesn’t know who Neil Young is?
As for not getting invited to socializing events by white people, that’s not a sign of racism, that’s a sign of maybe they don’t have all that in common with him. They do not share, based on your anecdote, a common culture with him. and probably saved him some the awkwardness many blk people feel as being “the only black guy in the room” even though no one is being mean to them. Multiethnic almost always means multicultural and cultures do not always mix.
One of the worst things about institutionalized racism is that laws are not necessary to keep different ethnic groups with different cultures apart. Given an equal distribution of resources among two ethnic/cultural groups they will not mix unless one has something the other one doesn’t…this is what forces different cultures to interact. Otherwise, they do not have much in common with each other and will not interact.
And you are basically a f789ing idi ot so I will not bother to respond to your diarrhea.
Fast Eddy, you have a hard time accepting that maybe your “black friends” are exaggerating claims of racism by interpreting everything as a matter of skin color
as if skin color exists in a vacuum and people aren’t also judged on their looks, personality ,and if they have the right values.
As a non-black person, merely walking through many black areas of the USA would make you a likely victim of assault or robbery because of the colour of your skin. Likewise, non-black children in predominantly black schools are the victims of constant black aggression.
The reverse is not true. Black people can walk around in white neighbourhoods without fear of assault. Black children can attend predominantly white schools without constant risk of attack.
So who are the real racists? Would you rather be shunned for dinner invitations or be assaulted?
Not a debate I feel qualified to enter but I can’t resist posting this Lenny Kravitz track for you, Yorchichan. 😀
Ha! I’ll pick up anyone as long as they can walk (or at least their inability to stand is not due to over consumption of alcohol). All the black people I’ve had in my car have been great apart from some girls who were unhappy at my answer after they asked me would I vote for Trump or Hilary. Even they were ok with me the next time I saw them.
that is pretty much an accurate observation
Every day the media, their liberal schoolteachers and black leaders are tell telling them how it’s racism that is keeping them out of professional jobs, keeping them poor, putting them in jail for being black by framing them for crimes, shooting them unnecessarily, and making them drop out of school. If I was fed what blk kids are being fed today, it’s hard not to develop a lot of resentment towards whites.
This Is What It’s Like To Search For A Job As A Black Woman
We’re told from childhood we have to work twice as hard to get half of what white people get, but when job searching, sometimes even that’s not enough.
https://www.fastcompany.com/40504481/this-is-what-its-like-to-search-for-a-job-as-a-black-woman
Study: anti-black hiring discrimination is as prevalent today as it was in 1989
Racism is alive and well in America.
https://www.vox.com/identities/2017/9/18/16307782/study-racism-jobs
The American Economy Isn’t Getting Any Less Racist
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/09/the-american-economy-isnt-getting-any-less-racist.html
It would suck to be a r e tard ed MORE on … if one were to understand that is what one is.
You clearly do not — so are no doubt very pleased with yourself.
Everyone is discriminated against in the job place but it’s not based on race.
The biggest problem with black women, and many women, is that they don’t have any useful skills–which puts them in an zone where employers make non-objective decisions about how they’re hired.
Workers who are applying for low-level jobs and high-level executive jobs face the most discrimination, because who gets considered is based on internal referrals and ,without affirmative action, everyone refers their friends and many times their friends are very similar to themselves.
Race is not the only thing put under scrutiny. Education quality, personality, and cultural upbringing also come into play. Not having the right hobbies or right social experiences can work against a job applicant. To refer to your link, here is what the writer says
“Although my resume proved that I could fulfill the job duties, Hiring manager after hiring manager saw my blackness, and perhaps even my mild manner of speaking” This purely speculation.
I’m going to assume blackness has more to do with a chip-on-the-shoulder attitude than skin tone
She has made in into the job market without knowing what a “cultural fit” means and hints that she is introverted which is typically frowned at companies looking at people with the right “cultural fit”.
“Organizations want to fixate on the myth of the pipeline problem and not wanting to lower the bar, when the bar that we see lowered consistently is the bar for white leaders”
Cronyism is not racism.
Most high-level leaders at most organizations are there as a matter of cronyism. I remember reading about one WHITE MAN’s attempt to bring an executive’s compensation down and the board kept voting against it. Leaders don’t do anything. They may work long hours but it’s dubious as to what they do. They get paid what they do because they take ownership of the labor of lower-level workers. Leaders are the worst example of racism because it’s a club where the leadership role is passed to a small role of insiders who come from the same socioeconomic background, UNLESS they built a company from the ground-up. (Oprah).
I found that in consulting with mostly male clients, the expectation (at least a few years ago) was that consultants would be expected to go out drinking and to “strip joints” with the out of town visitors. I did not fit comfortably into that role. There was also an expectation of moving from office to office (often internationally) to help with unusual demands, or “for a broader perspective.” With a husband and family, this did not fit well with my needs.
Racism is alive and well in America
Correct. Here is the most blatant example of racism in America that you will ever come across:
https://downtrend.com/vsaxena/bonus-sat-points-for-being-black/
This will account for at least some of the discrimination when it comes to the success or failure of black applicants to obtain and get through interviews. If an employer doesn’t know whether a black applicant got into college based on merit or due to affirmative action, the sensible thing to do is to hire the Asian candidate whose qualifications are not in doubt.
That’s what happens when you drag millions of people in chains across the Atlantic … beat and torture them… treat them like donkeys….
Then free them… yet continue to treat them very badly….
Have a read of the comments on Zero Hedge that involves Obama or black NFL players or any other blacks….. you’ll get a pretty good feel for how a huge swathe of Americans feels about blacks
And you think that they are going to hand you roses and serenaded with Koombay when you venture into the hell hole ghettos that they have been shunted into since slavery
What f789ing planet do you live on????
Slavery ended in America 150 years ago, so it’s doubtful any black people alive today were ever slaves. Plenty of Northern Europeans were slaves too in the past, but we don’t constantly go on about it. Don’t you think it’s time black people got over it?
Black people are free to live any place they choose in the USA, if they can afford it. Lack of money may prevent the majority of them from living where they would like, but that applies equally to people of all races. If black people now live in hell holes, they are hell holes of their own creation.
Thirty years ago one of my Indonesian student flatmates told me a story of how he wandered by mistake into a black neighbourhood in NYC and emerged having been relieved of everything except his underpants. So, what have Indonesians done to upset black people?
The worst thing about segregation in the South, according to some text I read concerning Martin Luther King wasn’t the lynchings, it was the daily humiliations of separate and unequal facilities for blacks and whites. This is at the emotional root of the feelings of injustice and oppression–black people are constantly reminded that they aren’t as whites. They have no source of pride and self-esteem aside from fighting for their rights.
There is a reason why only CIVIL RIGHTS figures are given prominence in America.
The oppression-civil-right-minded-blacks ostracize any black person who did not want to use white guilt as a strategy to acquire resources. According to the oppression-civil-right-minded-blacks, all achievement is a matter of privilege. Whites should just give them black privilege, and they will be represented in High Culture and at elite firms despite lower grades, and work ethic.
You are like those Anglo Canadian friends of mine who have no idea that another white person could ever have experienced prejudice in the job market — because their name was not Jones or Smith….
i.e. you are ignorant — and clueless….
You really do need to speak to some real live black Americans… not the lower income ones… speak to a professional — a doctor.. a lawyer… maybe a banker…. ask them what it’s like
Obviously things have a changed somewhat since this …
Black Like Me, first published in 1961, is a nonfiction book by white journalist John Howard Griffin recounting his journey in the Deep South of the United States, at a time when African-Americans lived under Racial Segregation. Griffin was a native of Dallas, Texas, who had his skin temporarily darkened to pass as a black man. He traveled for six weeks throughout the racially segregated states of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, and Georgia to explore life from the other side of the color line. Sepia Magazine financed the project in exchange for the right to print the account first as a series of articles.
Griffin kept a journal of his experiences; the 188-page diary was the genesis of the book. When he started his project in 1959, race relations in America were particularly strained. The title of the book is taken from the last line of the Langston Hughes poem “Dream Variations”.
In 1964, a film version of Black Like Me, starring James Whitmore, was produced.[1] A generation later, Robert Bonazzi published a biographical book about Griffin, these events, and his life: Man in the Mirror: John Howard Griffin and the Story of Black Like Me (1997).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Like_Me
Someone needs to write an updated account…
your indonesian friend was ”different” thats all
Ya let’s just ‘get over it’
I am sure blacks in America would agree…. but the majority of whites still insist on calling them nig.gers (not to their faces of course)…
Another reason why collapse is a good thing… it puts an end to this behaviour
It will also put an end to as.sholes who insist that blacks have no grievances
Let me ask you a question. Do you think the average black person is being treated badly right now? Because like many social justice warriors you seem fixated in the past
Openly racist white on Zerohedge people do not make up a huge swath of white America….anymore than those Jewish racists on Half Sigma represented all Jewish men.
The troubling thing about racists is that these days they tend to have valid points. Slavery and Jim Crow is not a reason for black people to behave in self-destructive ways. Discrimination is not a reason for the problems in the African American community.
Self hatred is.
Something similar is happening on Native American reservations. Attempts by whites to make up for the past created a tradition of welfare dependency which saps the self esteem of many people. From what I read, Native Americans hating their heritage was a real problem on the reservations where the social dysfunction was the highest.
Birds of a feather flock together. That is a truth applying itself to mankind’s basic nature.
It doesn’t mean racism necessarily, though it also does not eliminate it. We now have a concerted effort by the mass media to “invent” a new culture. Every commercial movie, and show features interracial friends, families and relationships inhomes and at events, far from the norm…to the point of being ridiculously Unreal. Totally in your face. My prediction is mans basic nature will not change.
As far as racial hatred….we should love and respect our fellow man. Sorry for the sexist terminology. I have not yet transitioned to the new gender neutral terminology.
Some things like respect are usually given in measure.
Come on JJ…. let’s get with the program!!!
http://images.indianexpress.com/2018/02/justin-trudeau_759_yt1.jpg
Just thinking …
I remember in the 90’s living in Hong Kong … and asking local girls about what they thought about black Americans….
They generally replied saying they are ‘dangerous’
I asked them why they thought that…. ‘from watching tv shows’
Protest in Puerto Rico turns violent as thousands march against austerity measures
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/puerto-rico-hurricane-recovery/os-puerto-rico-protest-20180501-story.html
“Economists warn that the poverty rate on the island of 3.3 million people could increase from 45 percent to more than 60 percent.”
“could” increase? I think the poverty rate will increase to nearly 100%…
“… Ramon Caban, a 60-year-old retired worker from Puerto Rico’s power company, decided to join the march. “It will be unbearable,” he said. “The future of Puerto Rico is extremely unstable. It’s exasperating because nobody can make plans for the future.”
well, he could “un-retire”…
otherwise, join the club…
the future of the world is extremely unstable, and getting worse…
PR is just one of the places on the leading edge of decline…
lower energy per capita, lower productivity, lower job availability accompanied by lower wages, higher poverty, social disintegration, addiction crises, declining average lifespans…
but I don’t think we will see anyone “protesting” that reality…
Puerto pobre
as I’m trying to work out the possible short term (10 to 20 years) scenarios for “the world”, I keep coming back to what is actually happening now, and that seems more persuasive than any conceptual models about “the future”…
in American football, there was a semi-famous phrase that “the future is now”…
I think there are the beginnings of declining lifespans in the USA…
trends often stop or reverse, but can also gain momentum…
even as some peripheral areas are being overwhelmed by Creeping Collapse, core areas are being weakened internally…
no institutions or segments or systems of the core have failed (true or false?), but all institutions and segments and systems are beginning to be stretched and strained…
will there be a tipping point where parts of the core snap?
or will the tipping point produce a total collapse of IC?
the current information suggests that IC will “collapse” region by region…
I think… maybe…
true or false?
what’s the big picture?
Little by little then all at once. Luckily we don’t exactly know the time scale for that. I can’t see us making it past 2050 without a major collapse.
little by little is the current trend…
at some point, that trend will change…
it seems certain that there will be many regional collapses in the next 22 years…
perhaps the Big One also…
that’s tired math…
32 years until 2050…
Take what you see and extrapolate that. This has a decent chance of being somewhat accurate. So many people making models to match their own theories and predictions.
So what do we see? More inequality. Less consumable energy (more expensive, less purchasing power). Riots and upheaval in peripheral countries. The peripheral countries will turn into lawless territories and the less peripheral countries will start having trouble. And so on…
Watched some Jack Alpert videos. Explains the PR events perfectly!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18UdJzm32Yg&t=10s
The catch is that his solution is the… 1 child to 4 grandparents solution, and that has issues.
Which means – there are no solutions!
Alpert just rambles on repeating stuff over and over
In his podcast on JHK—-he delivers the conclusion that ultimately the world can support 50 million people in three areas of the world…NW USA, SouthAmerica somewhere and another location (I forget where) simply by having access to hydro-electric power.
According to Alpert, these 3 areas can maintain the civilisation we have now in pocketts of isolated normality, while the rest of the world just empties out of people altogether–Europe, Africa etc etc all gone.
I listened for a while but realised he’s lost it completely
he seems to deliver logical truth which cannot be disputed, then latches fantasy onto it on the assumption that people won’t know the difference
@Norman
You mean, that you can’t shortcut a global Society to 50 Million and they keep all the goodies that a global econoly of 7 billion provides?
For Example: Mining in the appropriate region, cheap labor too exploit, fossil fuels for stuff where electricity doesn’t work, a more global food network in case a location has a couple of bad weather seasons, a semoconductor industry to keep things running, etc. pp?
I admire Col. Wilkerson – Google him for more.
Ist class talk:
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/10/lawrence-wilkerson-the-empire-is-in-deep-deep-trouble.html
You forget the sarc tag at the end of that…. please tell me you did….
Yeah I listened to that as well. I think he’s right about the world having something in the range of 600M humans at the end of the century, but his solution ideas are weirdly utopian before even getting into the idea that he somehow thinks half the world could be convinced to vote for it (ignoring the fact that no global democratic body even exists to conduct said voting or carry out the plan…).
Hydroelectric is, of course, dependent on proper maintenance as well. And all it gives is electricity. It doesn’t maintain roads or electric power lines. It really is not much of a solution for keeping population up.
Alpert is also a “peak oiler” –doesn’t really see the connection between energy and the economy.
It appear that he is a…. MORE on
Agree on the podcast. But the population discussion was better I thought.