Easily overlooked issues regarding COVID-19

We read a lot in the news about the new Wuhan coronavirus and the illness it causes (COVID-19), but some important points often get left out.

[1] COVID-19 is incredibly contagious.

COVID-19 transmits extremely easily from person to person. Interpersonal contact doesn’t need to be very long; a taxi driver can get the virus from a passenger, for example. The virus may be transmissible even before an infected person develops symptoms. It may also be transmissible for a few days after a person seems to be over the virus; it is possible to get positive virus tests, even after symptoms disappear. Some people may have the disease, but never show symptoms.

[2] The virus likely remains active on inanimate surfaces such as paper, plastic, or metal for many days.

There haven’t been tests on the COVID-19 virus per se, but studies on similar viruses suggest that human pathogens may remain infectious for up to eight days. Some viruses that only infect animals can survive for more than 28 days. China is reported to be destroying paper currency from the hardest hit area, because people do not want to accept money which may have viruses on it. Clearly, surfaces in airplanes, trains and buses may also harbor viruses, long after a passenger with the virus has left, unless they have been thoroughly wiped down with disinfectant.

[3] Given Issues [1] and [2], about the only way to avoid spreading COVID-19 seems to be geographic isolation. 

With all of today’s travel, geographic isolation doesn’t work very well in practice. People need food and medical supplies. They need to keep basic services such as electricity and garbage collection operating. Suppliers of food and other services need to come and leave the area and that tends to spread COVID-19. Also, the longer a geographic area is isolated, the larger the percentage of the people within the area that is likely to get COVID-19. The problem is that the people need to have contact with others in the area for purposes such as buying food, and that tends to spread the disease.

[4] The real story regarding the number of deaths and illnesses seems to be far worse than the story China is telling its own people and the world.

The real story seems to be that the number of deaths is far greater than the number reported–perhaps 10 times as high as being reported. The number of illnesses is also much higher. At one point, facilities doing cremations in the Wuhan area were reported to be doing four to five times the normal number of cremations. Some of the bodies in the Wuhan area now need to be sent to other areas of China because there is not enough local cremation capacity.

China doesn’t dare tell its people how bad the situation really is, for fear of panic. They want to tell a story of being in control and handling the situation well. The news media in the West repeat the stories that the government-controlled publications of China provide, even though they seem to present a much more favorable situation than really seems to be the case.

[5] Our ability to identify who has the new coronavirus is poor.

While there is a test for the coronavirus, it costs hundreds of dollars to administer. Even with this high cost, the results of the tests aren’t very reliable. The test tends to produce many false negatives. The virus may be present somewhere inside the person being tested, but not in the areas touched by swabs of the throat and nose.

[6] Some people get much more severe symptoms from COVID-19 than others.

Most people, perhaps 80% of people, seem to get a fairly light form of the COVID-19 illness. Groups that seem particularly prone to adverse outcomes include the elderly, smokers, those who are obese, and those with high blood pressure, diabetes, or poor immune systems. Males seem to have worse outcomes than females.

Strangely enough, there is speculation that people with East Asian ancestry (Chinese, Japanese, or Vietnamese) may have a higher risk of adverse outcomes than those of European or African ancestry. One of the things that is targeted by the disease is the ACE2 receptor. The 1000 Genome Project studied expected differences in ACE2 receptors among various groups. Based on this analysis, some researchers (in non-peer-reviewed studies, here and here) predict that those of European or African ancestry will tend to get lighter forms of the disease. These findings are contested in another, non-peer-reviewed study.

Bolstering the view that East Asians are more susceptible to viruses that target the ACE2 receptor is the fact that SARS, which also tends to target the ACE2 receptor, tended to stay primarily in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore. While there were cases elsewhere, they tended to have few deaths.

Observational data with respect to COVID-19 is needed to determine whether there truly is a difference in the severity of the illness among different populations.

[7] China has been using geographical quarantine to try to hold down the number of COVID-19 cases. The danger with such a quarantine is that once the economy is down, it is very difficult to come back to the pre-quarantine state.

Data shows that China’s economy is not reopening quickly after the extended New Year holiday finished.

Figure 2. China daily passenger flows, relative to Chinese New Year. Amounts are now down more than 80% and have not increased, even as some businesses are theoretically reopening. Chart by ANZ, copied by WSJ Daily Shot Feb. 17, 2020.

Figure 3. China property transactions, before and after Chinese New Year. Chart by Goldman Sachs. Reprinted by WSJ Daily Shot, Feb. 17, 2020.

All businesses will be adversely affected by a lack of sales if they need to continue to pay overhead expenses. Small and medium-sized businesses will be especially adversely affected. Bloomberg reports that if a shutdown lasts for three months, there is a substantial chance that these businesses will run through their savings and fail. Thus, these businesses may be permanently lost if the economy is down for several months.

Also, restarting after a shut-down is more difficult than it might appear. Take, for example, a mother who wants to go back to work. She will likely need:

  • Public transportation to be operating, so she has a way to get to work;
  • School to be open, so she doesn’t need to worry about her child while she is at work;
  • Masks to be available, so that she and her child can comply with requirements to wear them;
  • Stores providing necessities such as food to be open, or she may be too hungry to work

If anything is missing, the mother is likely not to go back to work. Required masks seem to be a problem right now, but other pieces could be missing as well.

Businesses, too, need a full range of workers to restart their operations. If the inspector doing the final inspection is not available, the business may not really be able to ship finished products, even if most of the workers are back.

[8] A shutdown of as little as three months is likely to be damaging to the world economy.

Multiple things are likely to go wrong:

(a) Commodity prices are likely to fall steeply, because of low demand from China. Oil prices, in particular, are likely to fall steeply, perhaps to $30 to $35 per barrel. Besides cutbacks in oil demand from China, there is the issue of a general reduction in long distance travel, because of fear of traveling with other passengers with COVID-19.

(b) US businesses, such as Apple, will find their supply chains broken. They won’t know when, and if, they can ship products.

(c) Debt defaults are likely to become more common, especially in China. The longer the slowdown/shutdown lasts, the greater the extent to which debt defaults are likely to spread around the world.

(d) The world economy is likely to be pushed into recession, without an easy way to get out again.

[9] The longer the shutdown lasts, the more likely there is to be a major collapse of the Chinese economy. 

In the event of a long-term shutdown, it would seem likely that, at a minimum, a new leader would take over. In fact, there would seem to be a significant chance of major changes within the economy. For example, the provinces of China that are able to restart might attempt to restart, leaving the more damaged areas behind. In such a case, instead of having a single Chinese government to deal with, there might be multiple governmental units to deal with.

Each governmental unit might consist of a few provinces trying to provide services such as they are able, without the benefit of the parts of the economy that are still shut down. Each governmental unit might have its own currency. If this should happen, China will be able to provide far fewer goods and services than it has in the recent past.

[10] Planners everywhere have been guilty of “putting too many eggs in one basket.”

Planners today look for efficiency. For example, placing a large share of the world’s industry in China looks like it is an efficient approach. Unfortunately, we are asking for trouble if the Chinese economy hits a bump in the road. Using just-in-time supply lines looks like a good idea as well, but if a major supplier cannot provide parts for a while, then having inventory on hand would have been a better approach.

If we want systems to be sustainable, they really need a lot of redundancy. Redundant systems are not as efficient, but they are much more likely to be sustainable through difficult times. There is a recent article in Nature that talks about this issue. One of the things it says is,

A system with a single cycle is the most unstable because the deletion of any cycle-node or link breaks the sustaining feedback mechanism.

“A system with a single cycle” is basically similar to “putting all of our eggs in one basket.” “Deletion of any cycle-node or link” is something like China running into coronavirus problems. We probably need a world economy that consists of many nearly separate local economies to be certain of long-term world economy stability. Alternatively, we need a great deal of redundancy built into our systems. For example, we need large inventories to work around the possibility of missing contributions from one country, in the case of a problem such as a major epidemic.

Conclusion

The world economy may become very different, simply because of COVID-19. The new virus doesn’t even need to directly affect the rest of the world very much to create a problem. The United States, Europe, and the rest of the world are very much dependent on the continued operation of China. The world economy has effectively put way too many eggs in one basket, and this basket is now not functioning as expected.

If China is barely producing anything for world markets, the rest of the world will suddenly discover that long supply chains weren’t such a good idea. There will be a big scramble to try to fill in the missing pieces of supply chains, but many goods are likely to be less available. We may discover quickly how much we depend upon China for everything from shoes to automobiles to furniture to electronics. World carbon dioxide emissions are likely to fall dramatically because of China’s problems, but will the accompanying issues be ones that the world economy can tolerate?

The thing that is ironic is that it is possible that the West’s fear of the new coronavirus may be overblown–we really won’t know what the impact will be with respect to people of European or of African descent until we have had a better chance to examine how the virus affects different populations. The next few weeks and months are likely to be quite instructive. For example, how will the Americans and Australians who caught COVID-19 on the cruise ships fare? What will the health outcomes be of non-Asians being brought back from Wuhan to their native countries on special planes?

 

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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2,589 Responses to Easily overlooked issues regarding COVID-19

  1. George Washington says:

    Ms. Tverberg,

    I greatly enjoy your writings. I am a frequent writer at Zero Hedge (under the pen name “George Washington”), and have closely followed the coronavirus pandemic.

    However, clicking through to the eTurboNews article – and then clicking through to the linked scientific articles – I don’t see any of the racial data depicted in the 1000 Genomes Project table.

    I may be missing it, but I think you’ve been taken in by fake news. If I’m wrong, I’ll happily confess. But I don’t see it.

    Please take a look.

    Thank you.

    • My understanding of the situation is that the analysis is based on different populations, shown in the chart I displayed. The results are based on how this analysis of how populations differ with respect to ACE2 receptors. So the analysis is not on races, per se, but on different populations, and how these populations (of somewhat mixed race) individuals differ.

      It looks to me as if American Indians (not shown separately but indirectly included in a bunch of other categories) seem to be high with respect to ACE2 receptor. They would likely be included in the following categories:

      Peruvians from Lima, Peru 78%
      Mexican Ancestry from Los Angeles USA 72%
      Gujarati Indian from Houston Texas 68%

      Genetically, they are related to East Asians, so this should not be terribly surprising.

      • George Washington says:

        Ms. Tverberg,

        I didn’t explain my question clearly. Specifically, the population data is shown in a table which purports to be from the 1000 Genomes Project. It is not clear whether the 1000 Genomes Project purportedly created the table, or whether someone else created the table based upon information gathered from the 1000 Genomes Project.

        However, I have spent weeks looking any confirmation that the 1000 Genomes Project actually gathered the data or created the table. I have found none.

        And I have read numerous scientific papers which purport to show different levels of Ace2 receptors and different populations, and have not found ANY (other than a single Chinese study with a sample size of literally 1).

        In other words, I understand the concept of Ace2 receptors, coronavirus, and different factors which might increase Ace2. I have written an article exploring one hypothesis: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-02-13/why-most-coronavirus-deaths-have-been-chinese-men . But I’m now skeptical of my own hypothesis.

        • I am afraid I am no medical expert.

          • George Washington says:

            Thanks. I have written to the 1000 Genomes Project to try to confirm or deny that it’s their data.

            • Read what is at the top of the image. It is supposedly based on their data. It is not their data directly.

            • I went back and changed the text of Section 6 a bit to make it clear that finding is based on two studies that have not been peer reviewed (which I link to). I also link to one new study (also not peer reviewed) which contests this finding. And I added a sentence at the end, saying “Observational data with respect to COVID-19 is needed to determine whether there truly is a difference in the severity of the illness among different populations.”

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  7. Curt Kurschus says:

    I’m surprised that the price of copper has not fallen more sharply since the onset of the corona virus situation. With the Chinese economy cutting back there should be a steep fall in demand for copper, yet the price isn’t too far off what it was in around July /August last year.

  8. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said he was watching the coronavirus impact on the economy with “grave concern,” in a nod to the growing toll the epidemic is taking on manufacturing activity and exports across Asia…

    “Massive business disruptions in China are starting to spillover into the global economy, with parts shortages rippling through supply chains as far away as the United States. Asian economies that are heavily reliant on exports to China and Chinese tourists are being hit hard on both fronts.”

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-global-economy/bojs-kuroda-says-watching-with-grave-concern-as-virus-hits-asian-economies-idUSKBN20F0MP

  9. Harry McGibbs says:

    “China car sales plunged 92% during the first two weeks of February as the coronavirus outbreak kept buyers away from showrooms. … It was even worse in the first week, when nationwide sales tumbled 96%…”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-21/china-car-sales-tumble-92-in-first-half-of-february-on-virus

  10. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The economic slowdown is wreaking havoc on the automobile industry in India. All major automakers in the country reported declining sales throughout the course of last year and the downturn continued this year, as well as manufacturers, reported a 13 percent decline in January year-on-year. Now, vehicle registration data has rubber-stamped the downturn.”

    https://www.cnbctv18.com/auto/vehicle-registration-down-over-7-annually-as-auto-slowdown-continues-5340971.htm

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