Many people are concerned today with the low price of oil. Others are concerned about slowing or stopping COVID-19. Is there any way forward?
I gave a few hints regarding what is ahead in my last post, Economies won’t be able to recover after shutdowns. We live in a world with a self-organizing economy, made up of components such as businesses, customers, governments and interest rates. Our basic problem is a finite world problem. World population has outgrown its resource base.
Some sort of economy might work with the current resource base, but not the present economy. The COVID-19 crisis and the lockdowns used to try to contain the crisis push the economy farther along the route toward collapse. In this post, I suggest the possibility that some core parts of the world economy might temporarily be saved if they can be made to operate fairly independently of each other.
Let’s look at some parts of the problem:
[1] The world economy works like a pump.
To use a hand water pump, a person forces a lever down, and the desired output (water) appears. Human energy is required to power this pump. Other versions of water pumps use electricity, or burn gasoline or diesel. However the pump operates, there needs to be some form of energy input, for the desired output, water, to be produced.
An economy follows a similar pattern, except that the list of inputs and outputs is longer. With an economy, we need the following inputs, including energy inputs:
- Human energy
- Supplemental energy, such as burned biomass, animal power, electricity, and fossil fuel.
- Other resources, including fertile land, fresh water and raw materials of various kinds.
- Capital goods, built in previous cycles of the “pump.” These might include factories and machines to put into the factories.
- Structure and support provided by governments, including laws, roads and schools.
- Structure and support provided by business hierarchies and their innovations.
- A financial sector to provide a time-shifting function, so that goods and services with future value can be paid for (in actual physical output) over their expected lifetimes.
The output of the economy is goods and services, such as the following:
- Food and the ability to store and cook this food
- Other goods, such as homes, cars, trucks, televisions and diesel fuel
- Services such as education, healthcare and vacation travel
[2] Adequate growth in supplemental energy (such as fossil fuels) is important for keeping the economy operating properly.
The more human energy is applied to a manual water pump, the faster it can pump. The economy seems to work somewhat similarly.
If we look back historically, the world economy grew well when energy supplies were growing rapidly.
Figure 2. Average growth in energy consumption for 10 year periods, based on the estimates of Vaclav Smil from Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects (Appendix) together with BP Statistical Data for 1965 and subsequent.
Economic growth encompasses both population growth and rising standards of living. Figure 3 below takes the same information used in Figure 2 and divides it into (a) the portion underlying population growth, and (b) the portion of the energy supply growth available for improved standards of living.
Figure 3. Figure similar to Figure 2, except that energy devoted to population growth and growth in living standards are separated. An ellipse is added showing the recent growth in energy is primarily the result of China’s temporary growth in coal supplies.
Looking at Figure 3, we see that, historically, more than half of energy consumption growth has been associated with population growth. There is a reason for this connection: Food is an energy product for humans. Growing food requires a lot of energy, both energy from the sun and other energy. Today, a large share of this other energy is provided by diesel fuel, which is used to operate farm equipment and trucks.
Another thing we can see from Figure 3 is that peaks in living standards tend to go with good times for the economy; valleys tend to go with bad times. For example, the 1860 valley came just before the US Civil War. The 1930 valley came between World War I and World War II, at the time of the Great Depression. The 1991-2000 valley corresponds to the reduced energy consumption of many countries affiliated with the Soviet Union after its central government collapsed in 1991. All of these times of low energy growth were associated with low oil (and food) prices.
[3] Even before COVID-19 came along, the world’s economic pump was reaching limits. This can be seen in several different ways.
(a) China’s problems. China’s growth in coal production started lagging about 2012 (Figure 4). As long as its coal supply was growing rapidly (2002 to 2012), this rapidly growing source of inexpensive energy helped pull the world economy along.
Figure 4. China energy production by fuel, based on 2019 BP Statistical Review of World Energy data. “Other Ren” stands for “Renewables other than hydroelectric.” This category includes wind, solar, and other miscellaneous types, such as sawdust burned for electricity.
Once China needed to depend on importing more energy to keep its energy consumption growth, it began running into difficulties. China’s cement production started to fall in 2017. Effective January 1, 2018, China found it needed to shut down most of its recycling. Auto sales suddenly starting falling in 2018 as well, suggesting that the economy was not doing well.
(b) Too much world debt growth. It is possible to artificially raise economic growth by offering purchasers of goods and services debt that they cannot really afford to pay back, to use for the purchase of goods and services. Clearly, this was happening before the 2008-2009 recession, leading to debt defaults at that time. The rise in debt to GDP ratios since that time suggest that it is continuing to happen today. If the world economy stumbles, much debt is likely to become impossible to repay.
(c) The need to lower interest rates to keep the world economy growing. If the world economy is growing rapidly, as it was in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, the economy is able to grow in spite of increasing interest rates (Figure 5). After energy supply growth slowed about 1980 (Figure 2), interest rates have needed to fall (Figure 5) to hide the slowing energy consumption growth. In fact, interest rates are near zero now, similar to the way they were in the 1930s. Interest rates are now about as low as they can go, suggesting that the economy is reaching a limit.
Figure 5. 3-month and 10-year US Treasury rates. Graph provided FRED.
(d) Growing wage disparity. Increased technology is viewed positively, but if it leads to too much wage disparity, it can create huge problems by bringing the wages of non-elite workers below the level they need to support a reasonable lifestyle. Globalization adds to this problem. Income disparity is now at a peak, around the level of the late 1920s.
Figure 6. U. S. Income Shares of Top 1% and Top 0.1%, Wikipedia exhibit by Piketty and Saez.
(e) Excessively low commodity prices, even before COVID-19 problems. With the world’s wage disparity problem, many workers find themselves unable to afford homes, cars, and restaurant food. Their lack of purchasing power to buy these end products tends to keep commodity prices too low for producers to make an adequate profit. Oil prices were already too low for producers in 2019, before lockdowns associated with COVID-19 were added. Producers of oil will go out of business at this price. In fact, other commodity prices, including those of liquified natural gas, copper, and lithium are all too low for producers.
[4] The COVID-19 problem, and in fact epidemic problems in general, are not going away.
The publicity recently has been with respect to the COVID-19 virus and the need to “flatten the curve” of infected individuals, so that the health care system is not overwhelmed. The solutions offered revolve around social distancing. This includes reduced air travel and fewer large gatherings.
The problem with these solutions is that they make the world’s problems related to slow economic growth and too much debt a great deal worse. Growing businesses are built on economies of scale. Social distancing requirements lead to less efficient use of buildings and furnishings. For example, if a restaurant can only serve 25% as many customers as previously, its overhead quickly becomes too high, relative to the customers it can serve. It needs to lay off workers. Laid off workers add to the problem of low demand for goods like new homes, vehicles and gasoline. Indirectly, they push commodity prices of all kinds down, including oil prices.
If this were a two-week temporary problem, the situation might be tolerable, but the virus causing COVID-19 is not easily subdued. Many cases of COVID-19 seem to be infectious during their latency period. They may also be infectious after the illness seems to be over. Without an absurd amount of testing (plus much more accurate testing than seems to be really available), it is impossible to know whether a particular airline pilot for a plane bringing cargo is infectious. No one can tell whether a factory worker going back to work is really infectious, either. Citizens don’t understand the futility of trying to contain the virus; they expect that an ever-large share of our limited resources will be spent on beating back the virus.
To make matters worse, from what we know today, a person cannot count on life-long immunity after having the disease. A person who seems to be immune today, may not be immune next week or next year. Putting a badge on a person, showing that that person seems to be immune today, doesn’t tell you much about whether that person will be immune next week or next year. With all of these issues, it is pretty much impossible to get rid of COVID-19. We will likely need to learn to live with it, coming back year after year, perhaps in mutated form.
Even if we could somehow work around COVID-19’s problems, we can still expect to have other pandemic problems. The problem with epidemics has existed as long as humans have inhabited the earth. Antibiotics and other products of the fossil fuel age have allowed a temporary reprieve from some types of epidemics, but the overall problem has not disappeared. Our attention is toward COVID-19, but there are many other kinds of plant and animal epidemics we are facing. For example:
- Bananas are being attacked by a fungus in many parts of the world.
- African swine fever has killed tens of millions of pigs in China and elsewhere.
- Locusts are attacking crops in Africa.
- Human pathogens are constantly evolving, so that today’s antibiotics work much less well.
Even if COVID-19 does not do significant harm to the world economy, with all of the resource limits and economic problems we are encountering, certainly some future worldwide pandemic will.
[5] Historically, the way the world economy has been organized is as a large number of almost separate economies, each acting like a separate economic pump. Such an arrangement is much more stable than a single tightly networked world economy.
If a world economy is organized as a group of individual economies, with loose links to other economies, there are several advantages:
(a) Epidemics become less of a problem.
(b) Each economy has more control over its own future. It can create its own financial system if it desires. It can decide who owns what. It can decree that wages will be very equal, or not so equal.
(c) If population rises relative to resources in one economy, or if weather/climate takes a turn for the worse, that particular economy can collapse without the rest of the world’s economy collapsing. After a rest period, forests can regrow and soil fertility can improve, allowing a new start later.
(d) The world economy is in a sense much more stable, because it is not dependent upon “everything going correctly, everywhere.”
[6] The COVID-19 actions taken to date, together with the poor condition the economy was in previously, lead me to believe that the world economy is headed for a major reset.
Recently, we have experienced world leaders everywhere falling in line with the idea of shutting down major parts of their economies, to slow the spread of COVID-19. Citizens are worried about the illness and want to “do something.” In a way, however, the shutdowns make no sense at all:
(a) Potential for starvation. Any world leader should know that a large share of its population is living “on the edge.” People without savings cannot get along without income for for a long period, maybe not even a couple of weeks. Poor people are likely to be pushed toward starvation, unless somehow income to buy food is made available to these people. This is especially a problem for India and the poor countries of Africa. The loss of population in poor countries due to starvation is likely to be far higher than the 2% death rate expected from COVID-19.
(b) Potential for oil prices and other commodity prices to fall far too low for producers. With a large share of the world economy shut down, prices for many goods fall too low. As I am writing this, the WTI oil price is shown as $1.26 per barrel. Such a low price is simply absurd. It will cut off all production. If food cannot be sold in restaurants, its price may fall too low as well, causing producers to plow it under, rather than send it to market.
(c) Potential for huge debt defaults and huge loss of asset value. The financial system is built on promises. These promises can only be met if oil can continue to be pumped and goods made with fossil fuels can continue to be sold. Today’s economic system is threatening to fall apart. Even at this point in the epidemic, we are seeing a huge problem with oil prices. Other problems, such as problems with derivatives, are likely not far away.
The economy is a self-organizing system. If there really is the potential for some parts of the world economic system to be saved, while others are lost, I expect that the self-organizing nature of the system will work in this direction.
[7] A reset world economy will likely end up with “pieces” of today’s economy surviving, but within a very different framework.
There are clearly parts of the world economy that are not working:
- The financial system is way too large. There is too much debt, and asset prices are inflated based on very low interest rates.
- World population is way too high, relative to resources.
- Wage and wealth disparity is too great.
- Too much of income is going to the financial system, healthcare, education, entertainment, and travel.
- All of the connectivity of today’s world is leading to epidemics of many kinds traveling around the world.
Even with these problems, there may still be some core parts of the world economy that perhaps can be made to work. Each would have a smaller population than today. They would function much more independently than today, like mostly separate economic pumps. The nature of these economies will be different in different parts of the world.
In a less connected world, what we think of today as assets will likely have much less value. High rise buildings will be worth next to nothing, for example, because of their ability to transfer pathogens around. Public transportation will lose value for the same reason. Manufacturing that depends upon supply lines around the world will no longer work either. This means that manufacturing of computers, phones and today’s cars will likely no longer be possible. Products built locally will need to depend almost exclusively on local resources.
Pretty much everything that is debt today can be expected to default. Shares of stock will have little value. To try to save parts of the system, governments will need to take over assets that seem to have value such as farm land, mines, oil and gas wells, and electricity transmission lines. They will also likely need to take over banks, insurance companies and pension plans.
If oil products are available, governments may also need to make certain that farms, trucking companies and other essential users are able to get the fuel they need so that people can be fed. Water and sanitation are other systems that may need assistance so that they can continue to operate.
I expect that eventually, each separate economy will have its own currency. In nearly all cases, the currency will not be the same as today’s currency. The currency will be paid only to current workers in the economy, and it will only be usable for purchasing a limited range of goods made by the local economy.
[8] These are a few of my ideas regarding what might be ahead:
(a) There will be a shake-out of governmental organizations and intergovernmental organizations. Most intergovernmental organizations, such as the United Nations and European Union, will disappear. Many governments of countries may disappear, as well. Some may be overthrown. Others may collapse, in a manner similar to the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union in 1991. Governmental organizations take energy; if energy is scarce, they are dispensable.
(b) Some countries seem to have a sufficient range of resources that at least the core portion of them may be able to go forward, for a while, in a fairly modern state:
- United States
- Canada
- Russia
- China
- Iran
Big cities will likely become problematic in each of these locations, and populations will fall. Alaska and other very cold places may not be able to continue as part of the core, either.
(c) Countries, or even smaller units, will want to continue to limit trade and travel to other areas, for fear of contracting illnesses.
(d) Europe, especially, looks ripe for a big step back. Its fossil fuel resources tend to be depleted. There may be parts that can continue with the use of animal labor, if such animal labor can be found. Big protests and failing debt are likely by this summer in some areas, including Italy.
(e) Governments of the Middle Eastern countries and of Venezuela cannot continue long with very low oil prices. These countries are likely to see their governments overthrown, with a concurrent reduction in exports. Population will also fall, perhaps to the level before oil exploration.
(f) The making of physical goods will experience a major setback, starting immediately. Many supply chains are already broken. Medicines made in India and China are likely to start disappearing. Automobile manufacturing will depend on individual countries setting up their own manufacturing supply chains if the making of automobiles is to continue.
(g) The medical system will suffer a major setback from COVID-19 because no one will want to come to see their regular physician anymore, for fear of catching the disease. Education will likely become primarily the responsibility of families, with television or the internet perhaps providing some support. Universities will wither away. Music may continue, but drama (on television or elsewhere) will tend to disappear. Restaurants will never regain their popularity.
(h) It is possible that Quantitative Easing by many countries can temporarily prop up the prices of shares of stock and homes for several months, but eventually physical shortages of many goods can be expected. Food in particular is likely to be in short supply by spring a year from now. India and Africa may start seeing starvation much sooner, perhaps within weeks.
(i) History shows that when energy resources are not growing rapidly (see discussion of Figure 3), there tend to be wars and other conflicts. We should not be surprised if this happens again.
Conclusion
We seem to be reaching the limit of making our current global economic system work any longer. The only hope of partial salvation would seem to be if core parts of the world economy can be made to work in a more separate fashion for at least a few more years. In fact, oil and other fossil fuel production may continue, but for each country’s own use, with very limited trade.
There are likely to be big differences among economies around the world. For example, hunter-gathering may work for a few people, with the right skills, in some parts of the world. At the same time, more modern economies may exist elsewhere.
The new economy will have far fewer people and far less complexity. Each country can be expected to have its own currency, but this currency will likely be used only on a limited range of locally produced goods. Speculation in asset prices will no longer be a source of wealth.
It will be a very different world!
Why Sweden Has Already Won The Debate On COVID-19 “Lockdown” Policy
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/why-sweden-has-already-won-debate-covid-19-lockdown-policy
Boots on ground in Sweden. Another article here…. True or false? Sorry to keep bothering those in Sweden. Too many misinformation, propaganda and half truths around to be 100% sure. I would rather trust those who are there. I still hear 50% against and 50% for, so I don’t know what to believe. What is correct last week may not be correct this week. Thanks !
Even without the same degree of lockdowns as most other countries, life in Sweden is dramatically different compared to before the corona. The hospitals are at this point not really overwhelmed, Stockholm is more stressed than other places. People are isolating themselves, particularly 65+. If you can you are supposed to work remotely and it’s common. Each last of April=Walpurgis celebration there is usually lots of festivities, this year nothing.
Swedens solution is likely better than most other countries solutions, but still not good enough to save the economy.
Sweden is plugged into the global economy …. so if everyone else is locked down and nobody is travelling or buying much of what Sweden exports … no matter what Sweden does they are as screwed as everone else.
Even if everyone kept to lockdowns on the swedish level, it wouldn’t be enough to save the economy.
Probably not given the global economy was set to collapse pre-Covid (according to the FT)
It seems like some typical gaslighting…In Sweden, all is not what it seems:
Sweden has a very large elderly population. The death toll in elder-care facilities and among the old in immigrant families has been excruciating. Medical and social workers, who realize that they may be asymptomatic shedders, do not want to perform work without protective clothing, but all such materials are reserved for those treating confirmed cases. Many Swedes are horrified, especially as the government claimed from the beginning to be focusing its strategy on protecting the most vulnerable, the elderly.
The effect of virus-fighting efforts on the Swedish economy has been devastating. A very large number of small businesses have collapsed. All but essential industries closed down almost immediately and many face bankruptcy. People have been told to refrain from all non-essential travel. Virtually all air travel has been suspended. Unemployment figures are soaring. The opposition parties deem government counter-measures to be too little too late. They are also mainly in the form of interest-bearing loans that are not offered with any expectation that they will be forgiven. Hence companies are fearful of applying for support. Many suspect that some measures are a back-door to socializing large private companies.
Contrary to impressions created in American media, Sweden’s approach to handling the pandemic has not been “relaxed,” but essentially the same as in other Western countries. This country of 10 million has been at least as preoccupied with the pandemic as other countries. Whether its approach has been as efficient remains to be seen. What may stand out as exceptional in the end is Sweden’s glaring lack of preparedness for a pandemic, especially for protecting its elderly, and that the dead are disproportionately recent immigrants.
Asian and Arab immigrants are notable for not liking fresh air and sunlight, exercise and for living hugger mugger – so no surprise there.
The dead are disproportionately recent immigrants.
Now why would that be?
My first assumption would be that immigrants from sunnier countries would be darker skinned and therefore less efficient at manufacturing vitamin D from Swedish sunlight. Also, those from the Middle East and North Africa are know to be fond of covering up their bodies in public, which leads to vitamin D deficiency even in those sunny climes. Low vitamin D levels are correlated with high rates of a large number of diseases. For instance:
Vitamin D3 deficiency can result in obesity, diabetes, hypertension, depression, fibromyalgia, chronic fatigue syndrome, osteoporosis and neuro-degenerative diseases including Alzheimer’s disease. Vitamin D deficiency may even contribute to the development of cancers, especially breast, prostate, and colon cancers. Current research indicates vitamin D deficiency plays a role in causing seventeen varieties of different cancers as well as heart disease, stroke, autoimmune diseases, birth defects, and periodontal disease. Vitamin D3 is believed to play a role in controlling the immune system (possibly reducing one’s risk of cancers and autoimmune diseases), increasing neuromuscular function and improving mood, protecting the brain against toxic chemicals, and potentially reducing pain
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3068797/
Current situation nicely put by Ugo Bardi:
“Of course, no model could have predicted that the turning point would have been triggered by a world pandemic — as it happened. But “something” had to give and the virus is not a cause of anything, it is just the straw that breaks the camel’s back. The little push that sent the system in a direction where it had to go.”
https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-most-accurate-model-based.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ResourceCrisis+%28RESOURCE+CRISIS%29
Ugo Bardi hits the nail on the head: The virus is the straw that broke the camel’s back. If the economy had been in a better position, recovery would have been possible. In fact, the whole idea of shutdown would have been less appealing to policymakers.
Gail, right on, for those that need a visual….this is the one displays the poor camels back being broken by BAU….look out when you crash and fall not to get hurt too bad….
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SEChXfNzqmo
You know, Camels, are so ugly they are kinda of cute!👴
Heard from someone they are rather nasty and my spit at you out of nowhere, just
like this China Virus.
Need another visual?👍
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Hs9foJmmJoQ
The recorder nailed it.
Ugo is taking an optimistic stance, however:
«Indeed, the coming crisis might turn out to be so bad to push us back to the Middle Ages. But it is also true that all major epidemics in history have seen a robust rebound after the collapse. Consider that, in the mid-14th century, the “black death” killed perhaps 40% of the population of Europe but, a century later, Europeans were discovering America and starting their attempt of conquering the world. It may be that the black death was instrumental in this rebound: the temporary reduction of the European population had freed the resources necessary for a new leap forward.
Could we see a similar rebound of our society in the future? Why not? After all, the coronavirus could be doing us a favor by forcing us to abandon the obsolete and polluting fossil fuels we use today. The current low market prices are the result of the contraction of the demand and are likely to be the straw that breaks the back of the oil industry. That will leave space for new and more efficient technologies. Today, solar energy has become so cheap that it is possible to think of a society fully based on renewable energy. It won’t be easy, but recent studies show that it can be done.
That doesn’t mean that the near term collapse can be avoided. The transition to a new energy infrastructure will require enormous investments, impossible to find in a moment of economic contraction we expect for the near future. But, in the long run, the transition is unavoidable and there is hope for a “Seneca rebound” toward a new society based on clean and renewable energy, no more plagued by the threats of depletion and climate change. It will take time, but we can heal the poor camel’s back.» https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2020/04/collapse-coronavirus-is-not-cause-it-is.html?m=1
He has a reference to a paper he co-authored https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094009/meta
Ever-optimistic Ugo. He also has been a big fan of kites to generate electricity. It is easier to get contracts to do work for the Club of Rome with an optimistic stance than a pessimistic stance, I expect.
Fossil fuels obsolete…..you are in LaLa land.
after previous plagues, humankind always had untapped energy resources waiting to be exploited
this time there are no ‘new resources’ waiting for us, to lift us up to a new level of sophisticated ‘civilisation’
I am amazed at Ugo talking about ‘enormous investments’—- that someone of his supposed intellect could imagine our problem to be a monetery one, rather than an energy one.
It has been shown time and again that the energy output from ‘renewable’ sources cannot sustain our current living standard, or come even close to it
Moreover, the huge death toll from plagues actually enabled natural resources to recuperate -here, the woods grew in size which was a great help to future generations.
Oh Gawd … did he really say all that?
Ugo:
https://pumpkinperson.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/retarded.jpg
I was in two minds as to whether to put in the link or not, and just cherry pick the good quote, for this very reason. Ugo’s posts tend to be rather doomer-ish on the whole, for good reason of course.
Ya but he smashed all his fingers to bits before he finally hit a nail.
Yep, Ugo Bardi still pathetically believes in a solar future.
Gail, I don’t think that “the virus is the straw”. I think that’s what we are supposed to be led to believe. “The virus” did not force a universal lockdown out of all proportion to risk—politicians did!
Not only is it intentional to begin with, they intentionally want to extend it in the face of controverting information.
Those who make huge errors usually tend to persist in them, so that’s what we can expect of our ‘leaders’.
Ditto for the dumb epidemiologists, for whom this is their moment of glory and continued research grants.
Life Is Worth Losing – Dumb Americans – George Carlin
https://youtu.be/KLODGhEyLvk
George is an American comedian taking the mickey out of his fellow country men and women. But it is the same everywhere. He nails the situation very well, with a bit of humour.
What is truly amazing is that he told the absolute truth in the most blunt way possible and the people laughed. They laughed until they cried because …?
Why didn’t the audience get angry? I would bet big money that he could present the same material today and they would still laugh. How many here still think that he was funny?
https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2020/04/23/the-russians-and-the-chinese-are-your-enemy/
I would add:
The conservative/liberal is your enemy
Not the 0.1% that set up the networks to portray the liberal/conservative as such
The conservative/liberal is your enemy
Why did people laugh at Georges mickey taking?
It was the way he told it.
If he tried to mock greenies and Al Gore G W ies… the entire audience would walk out…
It’s ok to mock normies for being normies though… they don’t mind that
I saw Georges last performance in Santa Rosa:
(Carlin’s last HBO stand-up special, It’s Bad for Ya, aired live on March 1, 2008, from the Wells Fargo Center for the Arts in Santa Rosa, California.)
Sort of a fan, but one needs to keep in the shallow end of the pool.
Hint:
I ended up in the broadcast— but you will never know where
Writing the script for George?
Hat tip to Apneman over at the Megacancer blogspot:
Remdesivir in adults with severe COVID-19: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre trial
Published:April 29, 2020
Discussion
“Our trial found that intravenous remdesivir did not significantly improve the time to clinical improvement, mortality, or time to clearance of virus in patients with serious COVID-19 compared with placebo.”
https://bit.ly/2St5Njy
————————————————————————————————————————————
And, from Rob Mielcarski:
“Must not be a remdesivir investor.
Does anyone know if Fauci has financial interests? That would turn up fox in the hen house to eleven.”
Seems like the usual suspects are trying to make another quick buck.
A bit like statins, which they like to say everyone over 50 should have: of course, in a pandemic they can make vaccines, etc, mandatory.
My one consolation is that they also are mortal and will die -and that is when their lies and greed will catch up with them.
I have a mate who works in Big Pharma – he is obese – and was urging me to take statins…
I said – but I have 120 over 80 BP and I exercise hard 5 days per week (at least) — and by hard I mean high intensity stuff… I don’t eat shi t…. I do not think I am a likely candidate for a stroke or heart attack….. so why would I take statins…
He said even if you are fit and healthy they will help you… he actually believes they are awesome.
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/high-blood-cholesterol/in-depth/statin-side-effects/art-20046013
I think that the benefit that remdesivir supposedly gives is a slightly faster time to clinical improvement. This study saw a little of this effect, but it was not statistically significant.
It would seem possible that if the study were devoted to only patients with symptom duration of 10 days or less, there might be a better outcome. There may be details that need to be tweaked as well, such as the size of dose and when it is administered. I don’t think anyone is saying that remdesivir does very much, however.
A recent Chinese study found no discernable benefit, except for pharmaceutical companies able to sell a dose of the elixir for $1000 a pop.
So this drug is being pushed thru but the anti-malaria drug which many doctors say does in fact help the patient is being pushed aside?
More money to be made on this drug.
We haven’t heard anything more about Ivermectin. https://en.as.com/en/2020/04/04/other_sports/1585963017_478782.html
It is a generic that has been around since the 1980s; it seems to be safe. We haven’t heard much about Vitamins C and/or D and zinc either.
The antimalarial drug is not good for patients with heart issues.
Follow the money
And as Tim Watkins suspects, setting up for another hyped drug scam à la Tamiflu: https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2020/05/02/fool-me-twice/
Watkins points out:
He also points out that the treatment is $1,000 a dose. So the benefit needs to be quite high to be worth the cost.
There is a book out that suggests Fauci is evil incarnate, and RFK JNR has endorsed it. Even so, it might not be too bad.
From the Author
First of all I want to thank Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for bringing the world’s attention to this book on Instagram.
When science is good it is very good. The picture most people have of science is one of objectivity, integrity, good faith, and miracles. People of noble character use time-honored experimental procedures to give us a truthful picture of the reality we find ourselves situated in. But there is another side of science, a dark side. On that side of science there is prejudice, deception, and outright fraud. This little book is about that dark side.
From the Reviews
I assume you’ve heard of Anthony Fauci by now. In this book you’ll find a very unflattering portrait of his career as a government bureaucrat who influenced the tone and course of AIDS and CFS research in the US for decades. Based on the evidence presented, it’s hard not conclude that Fauci is at best a bad scientist with consistently poor judgement. Now he’s one of the key figures at the center of the Covid-19 epidemic.
https://www.amazon.com/Fauci-Science-Concealed-Syndrome-Epidemic/dp/B086C33Y64
He appears to be a deeply flawed character. Perfectly suited for imperial intrigue.
Anyone who enters underarm farting contests …. cannot be trusted or taken seriously.
Seems like an appropriate flunky to carry out the CDP. Probably had a few acting classes to help him keep a straight face while lying….
The Oil Nations On The Brink Of Collapse
https://d32r1sh890xpii.cloudfront.net/article/718×300/2020-05-01_oakkh5neot.jpg
Global upheaval is likely to result from the oil price crash, upending the current fragile balance of power because key oil-producing countries, including Iraq and Nigeria, can’t buy their way out of this crisis with near-zero-interest loans like the Saudis and Americans can.
Even with Brent at $25 (indeed, even when it fell below $20), the Saudis were throwing around cash at all kinds of investments, including COVID-sinking cruise lines. The American shale patch can bail itself out if it wishes to, even amid desperate talk of looming bankruptcies. But in Nigeria, where oil comprises about 9% of GDP and 90% of exports, and with a break-even price of around $57 a barrel (with a fiscal breakeven of around $100), the economy is in serious trouble. If the economy is in trouble, the government is in even bigger trouble. Roughly 20 million people are unemployed, and that is now expected to climb another 25%. It’s enough to bring down a government, with the only lifeline now a $3.4-billion IMF emergency loan just approved. But making matters worse is the fact that no one even wants to touch Nigerian oil right now because there isn’t enough demand for it–even at $10 a barrel. And it’s competing with overproduced U.S. crude (light and low in sulfur).
In Iraq, the fragility will translate into a boon for the Islamic State first and foremost, while Iran and the United States grapple for control in this proxy war setting. Massive political and social…
There are an awfully lot of oil nations that depend on tax revenue to support their economies. They also provide jobs, directly and indirectly. The low prices are a huge problem.
I find it hilarious that these countries all want a bailout loan, consisting of near worthless fiat. It is like saying, put more chains on us Massa.
Coronavirus Lockdowns: Half world’s workers may see livelihood destroyed
The International Labour Organisation’s updated analysis emphasises its severe impact on people in informal work.
It says many have already suffered massive damage to their capacity to earn a living.
Without alternative income, these workers and their families would have no means to survive, it says.
The new analysis says 1.6 billion people’s livelihoods are threatened by the virus, equivalent to almost half the global workforce.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52474849
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/15C68/production/_112029198_workinghour_decline_upt-nc.png
The outcome could not be clearer. Still, here in the UK the message to the bitter end is:
Stay at home, and don’t forget to clap on Thursday nights (outside your house, 8 pm, for medical workers)
My neighbours let off fireworks and bang saucepans to express their support for the NHS, quite hilarious.
In some places banging on pans = revolt….
Given we are already past the point of return… resistance is already futile…
We may as well:
http://www.clipartbest.com/cliparts/dT8/6yk/dT86yknTe.gif
That is quite the chart. Of course, most voters think of no one other than themselves and perhaps their parents. If shutdowns are saving them from this awful disease, the shutdowns must be beneficial. There is a financial aspect from the point of view of the voters as well: In the US, there are huge deductibles if a person is hospitalized. Also, the person who is ill may not get any reimbursement for lost wages. It is these financial aspects as much as the fear of dying that are driving the push for reducing the incidence of the disease.
“It is these financial aspects as much as the fear of dying that are driving the push for reducing the incidence of the disease.”
And yet there are so many other ways everyone meets their demise if it isn’t Coronavirus. But everyone thinks there will always be a tomorrow.
I find all the ‘woulds’ ‘maybes’ and possiblys’ in the financial reporting amusing: when it’s all as plain as a pikestaff.
Depression: a gaping abyss of economic turmoil, sector destruction and mass unemployment.
To be followed by waves of crime, disorder and drug addiction as people seek relief from a hopeless reality.
We don’t like to think about all of those things. Too many only see one piece of the story: These shutdowns are beneficial because they will save myself and my immediate relatives from death and huge hospital bills. In their view, any wage loss will probably be temporary and be offset by government programs to fix the problem.
Gail, I believe that your specialist subject is pension funds, or used to be.
A couple years ago I read an article about the pension fund that supports truck drivers in the USA. There may be more than one fund of course but I got the impression this was the THE fund used by truck drivers. It was insolvent and the relevant US govt agency told the fund managers to come up with a survival plan.
The gist of the article was that the fund managers were planning to cut payouts by a whopping 60% but the govt agency rejected this, on the grounds that it was not enough. Never heard how that worked out.
In the meantime, I have read nothing anywhere over the last few months about pension funds. At least her in the UK, the companies that have paid the most into these funds, so I have read, are the resource companies, especially oil companies but mining companies too. Some if not all of these companies have already announced cutbacks in dividend payments, or no payments.
Any idea why we are not hearing anything about pension funds? They cannot possibly be in good health.
Surely, if the problem is big enough the less you will be likely to hear?
The pension problem is vast, and cuts will come suddenly as a fait accompli.
Half of US cities apparently have pension funds which assumed higher rates of growth than actually happened, and are thus overpromised.
That’s why they all piled into junk bonds, to get a rate of return sufficiently high enough to fund the pensions and 401k’s of the baby boomers, who were promised an easy and graceful retirement. All future generations have been thrown under the bus, to meet this impossible dream.
I am not exactly a specialist in pensions. Some actuaries specialize in pensions. I came from a branch that specializes in things like medical malpractice, workers compensation, and liability insurance. I have been close enough to pensions that I can see what was/is happening.
Basically, there are two kinds of pensions:
(1) Government pensions, such as Social Security in the US, which are very close to “pay as you go.” Younger workers are taxed to pay for the benefits of retirees. Governments operate on something very close to a cash accounting system, so they do not accrue for promised benefits. They, in effect, say, “We expect to have young workers we can tax in the future. We will raise the taxes on the young workers, if necessary, so everything will work out in the long run. So there is no problem.
Of course, there really is a problem, if there are too many retirees relative to young workers, and the young workers are really not earning enough to live on. In the US, the taxes to pay for this system are regressive. As low-paid workers are laid off, funding for the system goes further into a deficit mode. This growing deficit is hidden in the US overall deficit, at least for payments in the current fiscal year.
(2) Private pensions, which are in addition to Government pensions, such as Social Security. These became popular when interest rates soared in the 1970s. It looked as if inflationary “growth” as well as dividend growth would continue in the future. Pension actuaries, looking at what had happened since World War II thought, “Wow! We can expect this growth/inflation pattern to continue indefinitely. If we set up funds to be half stocks (or more), and the remainder bonds, we can capture all of this growth for the fund.”
Pension funds were set up big companies (such as the ones I worked for). They were also set up by unions, such as the truckers. Governments especially set up pension funds. They seemed to tell government workers, “We may not be paying you well now, but just look at the huge pension benefits we are offering. You only have to work here for 10 years (or whatever) to quality, also.” So these pensions were a big draw, especially for aging workers who wanted to top up future income.
Of course, it started to become obvious that this scheme was not going to work. Big companies started dropping these plans for new workers many years ago, substituting plans that required employees to pay into their own “Investment Retirement Accounts.” The employer might match these contributions to some extent. But government programs and union programs lagged in making this change.
Now, pretty much all of these programs are very underfunded. This is hidden by artificially high expected future rates of return that actuaries have been told by regulators to use (alongside more reasonable returns) in making their funding calculation. Funding is done using the artificially high interest rate assumption, allowing pension owners not to feel too much pain.
The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation allegedly guarantees most/all of these private pensions, up to a selected annual amount per year, varying with when the person retired. I think it is something like $68,000 per year, now, so it is quite high. The catch is that the PBGC doesn’t really have any funds in it. The government has to vote to issue more debt, in order to pay groups of failing pension funds. The recent stories of Trump not wanting to bail out state governments seems to relate to failing state pension funds, among other things.
I expect that coronavirus problems are pushing pension problems off of the front page.
Everything depends on printed money. Nothing makes more good and services to share among citizens. The money given to retirees simply gives them a larger share of goods and services available.
“Everything depends on printed money”
Or extended credit… a money-like substitute, right up until it’s not.
Cheers,
-GBV
The ability to fund pensions is a losing battle over enough time.Corporate funds get more onerous to deliver as the number of employees a] diminishes and b] ages
Only a “monetary sovereign” government can pay without going bust. Then failure would be because the whole economy has gone belly up. As long as there is a financial system in operation, pensions can be paid. There is no other way, but bankruptcy. Tax is a fiction. It pays nothing, It just takes is all. Every other form of government will eventually go bust.
Except that all the government can do is allow the pensioners to share in the goods and services made by the workers. The workers and their families need enough as well. If supply lines are broken, there are fewer and fewer goods and services created. Something has to “give.” Somehow, the government (or the workers themselves) needs to make certain that the workers are the primary beneficiaries. Too many hangers on, including governmental hangers on, causes the system to collapse.
That’s what happens when the economy runs out of resources for sale. That is the proviso, the whole economy going belly up. I said that. You couldn’t even pay your soldiers. That would be interesting”
In the meantime, why worry?
A reset is coming. People wont accept limits they wont accept less than this idea of entitlement that they earned. When the facts are communicated they get angry. This is greed.
Maybe we could work out a less traumatic reset if people were willing to understand that things are unsustainable. Its too bad. Simple lifestyles are not that bad. WE have plenty of houses. We can work on food and medical. I think it would go a long way toward a message to the rest of the world if the USA would accept a simpler lifestyle.
One of the many disconnects is that people in the USA make many multiples of $ as the same person in another country. You cant have free markets and have mini economics to the extent that it has developed based on the distortion of fiat. Mini economics will balance without the funny money in a free market. Fiat is contrary to free markets.
Its worth noting that if interest rates were not kept at zero to keep the corporations solvent and support deficit spending the pension funds would be just fine with 7%.
The people have supported deficit spending in their blind belief of government and the power of fiat. They reap what they sow. There are many decent people. There are many greedy people.
We either live within our means of productivity and the limits of the planet or encounter the truth suddenly and with consequences. Even now we could be working toward a smoother transition to reality if we were willing to face facts. It would start by a understanding that the buying power of real goods and services that was in the 401ks, that is in the real estate values was not real. nothing has been lost. It was never real to begin with.
In this polarized blame game of hate that is called politics the possibility of realization of a graceful path forward is very remote.
This is a very clear headed analysis. Thank you.
Unfortunately, most will not accept the “truth” that the “candy” is not sufficient anymore to provide the fake lifestyle that so many live. Just look through facebook/instagram at all the narcissitic people who think their shit doesn’t stink. Can you imagine having to deal with these people when they find out the truth? LOL
Thanks. I was not aware of the recent history of private pension funds (why they were formed in the first place). If they are to continue existing at all, here in the UK, the USA, wherever, seems to me like large cuts to existing payouts are unavoidable. Painfully large cuts. And it might just occur to those still working that they won’t get any pension. First things first – let’s see how things pan out for the rest of this year.
It has seemed to me for a very long time that the payout assumption have been awfully high.
What has happened, in practice, is that the “boomer generation” has benefitted in many ways, at once. Jobs were readily available when they graduated, and they paid relatively well, compared to what it cost to attend school. The boomers were able to buy homes as low prices, with only a small amount down, and in that way benefit from asset appreciation. Then they got the benefit of the government program (Social Security) for retirement, plus the pension plans. Some of them, after they retire, continue to work at least part time, and benefit from that as well.
Meanwhile, young people get very much less out of the system. They find that they have to borrow a lot of money to attend school, and then wages aren’t high enough to support the amount paid back. They can’t afford homes or families.
The ones that were lucky enough to benefit from the rapid growth in energy supplies in the post World War II era have benefitted several times over. Now, without the growth in energy supplies, the result is a whole lot worse.
Coronavirus (UK): Half a million construction jobs could be lost if Boris Johnson gets lockdown exit strategy wrong, trade body warns
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-lockdown-strategy-coronavirus-trade-body-warning-a9495176.html
“Half a million jobs in the construction industry could be at risk if Boris Johnson gets his exit strategy from lockdown wrong, a trade body has warned.
… It comes after Rolls Royce became the latest firm said to be considering redundancies – with the BBC reporting the aircraft engine producer could cut 8,000 UK jobs due to strain in the aviation sector…”
“strain in the aviation sector” you gotta a laugh. Strain?!
This “Half a million construction jobs could be lost ” reminds me of Oil and Gas UK’s warning that 30,000 jobs ‘could’ be lost from the UK’s oil industry. There is no ‘could’ about it, they will be lost. With so many people with no job and no prospect of getting one (although there are jobs fruit and veg picking, not suitable for dapper couch potatoes), there is going to be a glut of new houses and flats in the country with damned few with the means to buy.
All good for the environment.
People keep getting poorer and poorer. They can afford fewer goods and services. The whole bubble economy collapses. One are of job loss leads to the next.
It is a bubble economy, and that is what makes the distinction between essential and inessential businesses absurd -one cannot prick ‘just a bit’ of a bubble! Whole bubble or none, that’s the deal….
“Who knows what the new normal for oil demand will be once Covid-19 is firmly in the rear view mirror? Not me, that’s for sure. But it is likely to be lower than it was in 2019, and it could be that way for many years. That’s going to create overcapacity throughout the oil supply chain and weigh on prices.
“Every time oil prices rise, producers will rush to use their idled capacity, undermining the recovery.”
https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/oils-recovery-could-take-decades-not-years
“Saudi Arabia will need to take “painful” measures and look for deep spending cuts as the kingdom faces a double crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic and the meltdown in global oil markets, its finance minister said on Saturday.
““The kingdom hasn’t witnessed a crisis of this severity over the past decades,” Mohammed Al-Jadaan said…
““We have to plan for the worst case scenario and take matters seriously,” he said. “I do not think the world or the kingdom will go back to the way things were before coronavirus.”
“Saudi Arabia’s outlook was cut to negative from stable by Moody’s Investors Service on Friday…”
https://www.arabianbusiness.com/politics-economics/446025-saudi-arabia-looking-at-painful-measures-to-address-economic-crisis
“Malaysia is weathering its worst economic recession in its history just as other developed nations are facing deep downturns due to the Covid-19 pandemic and Movement Control Order.”
https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2020/05/589338/malaysia-facing-worst-economic-recession-its-history
“Canada is likely going through its worst-ever recession, with more pain to come in May… The oil price collapse with the demand crash in the Covid-19 outbreak, and the month-long oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia are pressuring Canada’s economic activity…”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Canadas-Oil-Patch-Struggles-To-Survive-The-Worst-Recession-Ever.html
We are released from lockdown from tomorrow onwards with some opening in stages until mid of month. It is a lucky thing that savings rate is high as we don’t have social safety nets here. For many companies, there is not much work because international flights are still off limits, many other countries are still under lockdown and/or some supplies from outside Malaysia are still constrained. Seriously, due to globalization, Liebig Law of Minimum rules big time. Be it a locally bankrupt importer or logistics (transport issues), others cannot function well.
Let’s see what happens when infections spike in Malaysia…
Spike it will but what happens next? I am not sure. …
I expect that the beatings will resume until morale improves — the lockdown will be reinstated.
And anyone who had doubts about the lockdown policy … will be completely on board once they see the photos and videos of ERs with lots of flu patients.
Because they are morrrrons. Which is the default state of almost all humans
Every commodity has somewhat the same low-price problem, I am afraid.
“A massive wave of coronavirus infections is blasting through the world’s largest prison population in the United States… prison populations are more dense and harder to separate than nursing homes and cruise ships, two institutions hit hardest by the disease.
“They also operate at lower levels of hygiene, and a large number of inmates have preexisting conditions.”
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/1911928/coronavirus-sweeping-through-massive-us-prison-population
“Rioting inmates at a prison in the northern state of Amazonas [Brazil] held seven guards hostage for several hours Saturday… rumors that the virus has began to spread inside have been circulating on social media for weeks. Without visits, most families are entirely cut off from loved ones, with no way of getting in touch with them.
““They are getting sick and we can’t visit, or bring medicine. We have no news from them,” Regina Silva Barroso, whose 19-year-old son is inside the prison, told The Associated Press.”
https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/05/02/world/americas/ap-lt-brazil-prison-riot.html
“More than 40 people were reportedly killed after rioting broke out at a prison in Venezuela. Riots in the unsanitary and overcrowded prisons of Latin America have been increasing as governments introduce containment measures to help slow the coronavirus outbreak.
“Quarantine measures may mean that inmates cannot receive food brought by relatives, on which they may depend.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-52517167
Prisons are sure to be hit by COVID-19! There is no way to fix the situation.
I am afraid military are also at risk.
“Some 70,000 animals across Indonesia are at risk of starvation as zoos struggle financially due to social distancing restrictions amid the coronavirus pandemic.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-03/indonesia-orangutans-animals-at-risk-of-starvation-coronavirus/12209354
“A number of zoos around the world are reporting that their animals are becoming “lonely” without visitors. Zoos have had to close to members of the public due to Covid-19.
“Dublin Zoo said animals were also “wondering what’s happened to everyone”.
“Director Leo Oosterweghel said the animals look at him in surprise.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52493750
I am afraid that they may end up as meals for some hungry folks, looking for food. Zoos are sort of a luxury.
What does Greta want?
According to the BBC on Feb. 28 this year:
Greta says big governments and businesses around the world are not moving quickly enough to cut carbon emissions and has attacked world leaders for failing young people. Initially, her protests focused on the Swedish government’s climate targets, and she urged students around the world to make similar demands in their own countries.
But as her fame has grown, she has called for governments around the world to do more to cut global emissions. She has spoken at international meetings, including the UN’s 2019 climate change gathering in New York, and this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos.
At the forum, she called for banks, firms and governments to stop investing and subsidising fossil fuels, such as oil, coal and gas. “Instead, they should invest their money in existing sustainable technologies, research and in restoring nature,” she said.
Just over two month’s later, Greta has got quite a bit of what she says she wants. Carbon emissions are down, consumption is down, car and train travel has be more than decimated, and air travel is down by over 90%.
The Covid-19 lockdowns have resulted in a supply-side recession that is developing into a depression, and IMHO, is likely to extinguish mass-consumerism indefinitely. An early casualty has been the collapse in global oil prices, which is likely to slow investment in fossil fuels to a trickle. Market prices of other commodities will surely get cheaper over the short term as demand dries up and industries of all kinds wind down.
Here’s a pyramid.
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/98/86/9b/98869b0f464d8a464f36b5bcf405c7ed.png
And here’s a pie chart.
https://images.slideplayer.com/35/10295889/slides/slide_9.jpg
The USA and the societies in rest of the industrialized world have comparatively large service sectors, which means their employment pyramids are upside down compared to more traditional societies, with large numbers tertiary industry workers riding on the backs of relatively few secondary industry workers such as those in manufacturing, and even fewer primary industry workers such as those in agriculture and mining.
How would a mother-of-all-economic collapses play out in the various types of society? Which societies would fare better? Are we going to have along emergency? Are we going to have a partial recovery combined with more investment in what Greta calls “sustainable technology”? Or are we going to go the full Mad Max in short order?
Those are very nice charts. Thanks! Any ideas regarding the original sources?
We clearly need to shift our employment back away from services, toward primary and secondary industries. But this will be almost impossible to do. We can’t get workers to pick crops in the field, today. How would we ever be able to do agriculture in a less intensive way than we do now?
GGGEEETa is on dangerous ground here … when this sucker tips there might be a lot of people who blame her….. and she might end up skinned alive then roasted over a fire fueled by tyres….
The Economic Sectors one is from a German website http://www.regionales-wirtschaften.de
The site’s intro reads (according to Google Translate) The economic crisis, climate change and global peak oil production are the framework conditions that companies and municipalities are facing today. Achieving resilience to these threats should be part of corporate and community strategies. A PV system on the factory roof is not sufficient for this.
The Employment Structures was borrowed without attribution from Slideplayer.com
When you visit that site you are greeted with a mural-like picture illustrating an amusing take on the so-called human evolutionary ladder.
https://player.slideplayer.com/35/10295889/data/images/img0.jpg
I was just using those two charts as general props to try to make what I was waffling about a bit clearer.
Thanks! I found copies of them elsewhere, but if I decide to reference them, it would be helpful to find the originals.
“People in low-income and conflict-affected countries have so far largely escaped the high levels of Covid-19 infection seen in western Europe and the US, although this may be changing.
“The pandemic is killing them in different ways: lost jobs, ruined businesses, increased poverty, rising malnutrition and risk of famine, and a prospective increase in untreated, non-Covid preventable illnesses.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/03/while-the-west-fixates-on-covid-19-vulnerable-countries-pay-the-price
“Without urgent aid to clear arrears owed to official lenders, [Zimbabwe] faces “domestic collapse”, Mthuli Ncube, finance minister, told the IMF, African Development Bank and other institutions in a letter seen by the Financial Times.”
https://www.ft.com/content/29207bc7-cd4d-4c84-ac3f-4befa00ae906
““Businesses in [Nigeria’s] food supply chains are suffering and many will go under since farmhands cannot get to work, input supplies have been curtailed and planning has become impossible. This crisis has come at the beginning of the planting season, and so many farmers cannot produce, even for the post-COVID-19 needs.””
https://guardian.ng/features/covid-19-bleak-planting-season-signals-looming-famine/
“Mohammed Alsamaa is worried about the supplies and personnel shut out of Yemen since the country’s airspace closed in mid-March… He’s also worried about food supplies being disrupted by the shutdown measures. This is already a country where malnutrition is rife.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-52493609
““The virus of poverty, hunger, and bankruptcy is more dangerous than any other virus.”
“With these words, the Chairperson of the Syrian regime’s Federation of Industry and a member of the Syrian parliament, Fares al-Shihabi, has responded to the preventive economic measures taken by the Syrian regime’s government in the past few weeks to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus pandemic.”
https://english.enabbaladi.net/archives/2020/05/syrian-economy-resumes-activity-poverty-and-bankruptcy-outweigh-coronavirus/
“As Lebanon’s economic crisis continues to worsen, with the value of the Lebanese lira dipping, the prices of goods at stores have started to increase, with some products almost doubling in price.”
https://saudigazette.com.sa/article/592596/World/Mena/Prices-soar-as-Lebanonseconomic-crisis-worsens
“The reality is that a lockdown is not a cure, nor does it stop the spread of the virus. A lockdown is a pause, it may slow the spread of the virus…
“We will never know how many people died of starvation [in India], because no state government will admit to starvation deaths.”
https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/p-chidambaram-india-coronavirus-lockdown-migrants-hunger-6390882/
Apocalypse Soon
https://d1u4oo4rb13yy8.cloudfront.net/book/74083-iogxygdcki-1510922629.jpg
Good good good! This should result in plenty of violent riots.
Burn the city to the ground!!!
https://media.nbcbayarea.com/2019/09/GettyImages-1194553325.jpg
FE, a sincere question, as I understand the impulse, given the destruction we are inflicting on the biosphere and all the apparent greed and stupidity on display, but how do you square your own misanthropy with being human?
See my earlier post re God… Messiah etc….
I agree very much like the quote from the Indian Express article. This is a longer version:
People assume that a lockdown can do more than what it can really do.
The problem is that there are many places that are not in lockdown and they are not being overwhelmed.
But we don’t get much if any MSM coverage of these places e.g. Bali
Is it possible that different places respond to this pandemic differently based on demographics or other factors? Place A no lockdown = no problem. Place B no lockdown = hospitals overwhelmed and massive deaths? Sometimes the same action in different places does not have the same results…
This is utterly tragic: the workers could do the work, they have not been incapacitated by illness, and are being kept from it!
I have no time for the rich and elderly who demand lock-downs to save their soft skins without reflecting on the immense harm they are causing among those far less fortunate than themselves in both the advanced economies and worst of all among the poorer nations.
Lock-downs are, on the whole, criminal.
Yep – it’s mostly affluent people who are insisting on the continued lockdowns… I have some mates like that… they are a bit peeved with my position that the lockdowns need to stop
In the U.S., it seems more of a left-right thing. Freaked-out left-wingers want everyone to stay home, obey the gov.(!!) and collect “free” money, otherwise we’re all gonna die, while “the deplorables” seem to be those “resisting” the official narrative, preferring to get back to work, damn the torpedoes.
Agree. Wealthy liberal lefties are bleating for more lockdowns… I wonder if part of their motivation is because this lockdown sinks the economy and it might mean Trump does not get re-elected.
I really do not care which grocery clerk is POTUS — but I am hoping for a Trump re-election … because I love to hear the liberal lefties squeal like pigs.
https://thumbs.gfycat.com/FlimsyCavernousKite-small.gif
Fauci warns protesters about dangers of ending lockdowns prematurely: ‘It’s going to backfire’
Asked for his message to those protesting, Fauci told ABC, “The message is that clearly this is something that is hurting from the standpoint of economics … but unless we get the virus under control, the real recovery, economically, is not going to happen.”
Fauci went on to stress the importance of a gradual reopening.
“If you jump the gun, and go into a situation where you have a big spike, you’re going to set yourself back,” he said. “So as painful as it is to go by the careful guidelines of gradually phasing into a reopening — it’s going to backfire. That’s the problem.”
https://theweek.com/speedreads/909785/fauci-warns-protesters-about-dangers-ending-lockdowns-prematurely-going-backfire
Obviously what’s going to happen is some place will unlock — infections will spike — and they will clamour to be locked back down.
Of course we’ll be bombarded with images of people with the flu (and some with Covid) in hospitals in that city… tents (empty) etc… maybe a flashing red siren on a building to add of drama….
All the usual stuff
We need to clarify what the purpose of the lockdowns is. We have “flattened the curve.” That does mean lots of cases ahead, since the purpose was to delay cases. We cannot get rid of COVID-19, whatever we do.
Fauci stated we should have lockdowns until there were no new cases of CV:
https://rumble.com/v931rb-fauci-lift-social-distancing-restrictions-after-no-new-cases-no-new-deaths.html
Only way to avoid lockdowns?
A VACCINE.
Wow…. there you have it folks.
They obviously see what the impact of their lockdowns is on the global economy — yet they will stay the course. Obviously the goal is to run the ship into the iceberg at full speed.
CDP is locked in.
Queue starvation.
The morrons who support the lockdowns will shed a tear or two — they’ll toss a few coins in the Oxfam box… they’ll tune in to Bono in We are the World 2.0 and donate an amount less than the price of a bottle of wine … but ultimately they will be ok with all of that because that’s the price these poor buggers have to pay to save the morrons from the virus… it must be eliminated — everywhere.
Sometimes normies are a bit irritating… alas FE will have the last laugh… because first the el d ers came for the third world… and the normies said – great — they need to be locked down even if it causes a biblical famine —- then the el der s came for the first world…. and the normies said hang on … why are the shelves empty????
https://www.theloop.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/182460-excellent.gif
Meanwhile … in Lebanon 🙂
https://www.aljazeera.com/mritems/imagecache/mbdxxlarge/mritems/Images/2020/4/28/452f74dc4c514f15b70aebfabb7f0562_18.jpg
Just sharing some thoughts and elicit some ideas, suggestions and comments from those who are here. I am giving some thoughts on tourism. Yes, people may not like it but then it is a big cog in the wheel. Here is the data
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1099933/travel-and-tourism-share-of-gdp/
I am not sure if the “total” is really total related to tourism but I think it might not be. The airlines, restaurants, food supply, software system, AirBnB (local properties) and all supporting industries to the tourism (ranging from plumbers and electricians for AirBnB, hotels, ete). So, personally, the % might be a lot higher as the supply chain to tourism is really long and wide. It does feed a lot of mouths especially in Thailand, Spain and countries that really depend on foreign tourists.
The virus is always present. Hokkaido is locked down again after it was released. https://nypost.com/2020/04/30/hokkaido-hit-by-second-wave-of-coronavirus-after-ending-lockdown-early/
You can check out the webcam of a popular tourist area (I have been there, really lovely at this time of the year). https://www.stv.jp/webcam/otaru/index.html Otaru is deserted now. No pedestrian or traffic. The small red bridge in the middle of the picture is the place where one has to jostle to take photos of the canal. It should be overflowing with people. The entire street, ranging from the shops that sells clothes, wine, souvenirs, BBQ, 7-11 are probably suffering from a 75-90% drop in business. The buses, the petrol stations that fuels the cars (driving by tourist), the shops/diners serve the stomach of tourists (en-route from Sapporo) are all empty. How about the plumbers that service these diners? These shops/diners are far away from the tourist destination but it served as a “truck stop” for them. Are all these taken in to consideration when it comes to calculating the % of tourism in terms of GDP?
Germany- many conflicting reports from media and “experts” (I never trust anyone who says he/she is an expert) that cases in Germany is rising after the lockdown is release. Actually it is common sense that once lockdown is released, the cases will go up. It does not really take a genius to know that. The question here is – is that increase palatable to the public since the hysteria surrounding this virus is immense and probably unjustifiable?
One of the key industry that may not be able to see the light of the day even after months or years will be the airline industry. A majority of the passengers are not for work related but leisure. More so for those budget airlines. Tourism will not take place if (1) there is 14-day quarantine (2) borders can close anytime (3) flights can be cancelled anytime.
I believe it is unlikely that countries will open up to international travellers easily. China is still stopping foreigners coming in although it is the first country to be affected. Their data is not valid as I have friends in China who is telling me things that are not published in newspaper. Be it tourism or work related, if any country has a 14-day quarantine, then all bets are off.
Tourism at one location is successful because of the people who are visiting. It is the crowd, the atmosphere, the intensity, the vibrancy of the place that attracts people. People may complain that you need to spend lot of time queuing but if you turn it around and say that it is deserted at 20% utilization, people may think twice on going over because it lacks the “oomph”. Imagine going to Leaning Tower of Pisa. 70% of the shops are closed, only a few people are there, some of the services (maybe horse or buggy rides, etc) are not available and there is a chance that you are going to catch the virus. The richer but older people are not present, the expenditure from tourists are less. People visit places if the tourist attractions are open and the fun of visiting has to be present. If some of the of the tourist attrsactions are closed, then the person might not want to travel there anymore.
I sense that tourism industry is in a circular situation. A catch-22 or chicken and egg situation. Plane tickets will not be cheap because no one is flying. People are not flying because the tickets are expensive. Tourist attractions and hotels shutdown because of no tourists and tourists are not willing to fly over if they know the attractions are closed. So, unless this circular situation is resolved, it is not easy to move quickly to normalize (if that is even possible).
The other issue is money. With people having less money, worried about the uncertainty in life (Work, marriage, children, education, life, food on table, etc), it is only natural that people will pull back. Only those more.ons (those who are beyond help) will be buying unnecessary things. Being cost conscious is most important now, be it a haircut of even questioning the need to have the nails done or have food on the table for the children.
Yes, I know many people dislike tourists but it is, unfortunately, a very important cog in our economy. I have dived deep in to this area and found that it has an outsize effect on everyone, not just those in the tourist areas like Las Vegas. The supply chain (products and services) is very deep, long and wide. Politicians and most of the people jus say “Tourism is not important”. Unfortunately, that is not the case.
Let us bring this up for discussion. There is no right or wrongs. Appreciate any ideas, feedback, criticism and comments.
First off… one of my biggest regrets is choosing to visit Ireland instead of spending two weeks in Japan in October last year. The west coast of Ireland is a nice place but hardly worth traveling 24 hours in a tin can….. Damn… Damn Damn Damn….
As for tourism — even if flights open up are the precious people who will still have extra cash — going to get into tin cans and risk exposure to The COVID PLAGUE???
As I mentioned earlier — many of the restaurants in Queenstown won’t reopen because they are bankrupt — so there will be no ‘vibe’ in the town — which is half the attraction of many tourist towns…
Ya Venice is overwhelmed by tourism — but if it’s a ghost town will it attract the few who are still willing and able to travel.
It’s the old Korowicz thing … if you smash it … you can’t put it back together. If you are an F&B operator … how do you reopen when there are so few tourists…. you can never achieve lift off speed… so you rise a few metres then crash back down into bankruptcy…
The global economy well and truly is like the old dude hooked up to all the machines to stay alive..
The CBs are feeding the global economy oxygen, nutrients and circulating the blood… but make no mistake, this muthafukkkkahhhh is brain dead — all but the basic functions have ceased.
https://static01.nyt.com/images/2012/07/22/sunday-review/22LENIN/22LENIN-superJumbo.jpg
Let’s take a look at what life support looks like https://www.flightradar24.com/ANZ6082/2470d799
San Sebastian in Spain is like Queenstown, not worth visiting at all without the masses of bars and restaurants.
In so many places, if the hospitality trade is shut down, the town will simply die.
awwwww cmon—i go there lots
Kerry is a paradise—rain or shine
and the locals make you feel as if you’re the only visitor theyve seen all year—plus a few world class hotels and beaches–, what more do you want?
And did you lie outside at midnight and watch the milky way rotate over your head?
Just prior to lockdown M Fast and I tried to organize a couple of neighbours to have drinks at a the pub… they couldn’t make it (either busy or afraid not sure)….
We went on our own – there was nobody else in the place — they had the music off — and it felt like being at a funeral… or a morgue… After one pint we departed — and I said to M Fast — I wish we had not come — that was the most depressing beer ever.
all the countries that depend on oil and tourism are in big trouble. in Italy we put health first with 55 days of severe lock down. it is not clear the cost and the damage I think are still incalculable. then we will have a government that will put economy with Mario Draghi first. obviously he won’t be able to repair much. for August we will have the defoult.
Poverty and high unemployment will kill far more people than the virus ever could, and younger. It will be the same in Spain, certainly.
The 2020 Global Report on Food Crises was released, outlining the impact COVID-19 will have on countries with high volumes of food insecurity. Barron Segar, CEO of World Food Program USA, joins Yahoo Finance’s On The Move panel to break down the report.
=”More people will die of the economic consequences of coronavirus than from the virus itself”, said Barron Segar. “300,000 people a day are at risk of starvation over the next 3 months because of the economic fallout caused by CV-19. People are going to starve to death if they can’t make a living.”
This is a very good reference. Thanks for providing the link.
A tourist has to be 100% assured that they would not be locked up in quarantine at their destination if an outbreak occurred, and that they would allowed to fly or drive home and self-isolate there. Otherwise only a moron would take the risk.
It will be very nice here not to have the masses of very low-value Chinese tourists we have been getting, crowding out the place during the day although mercifully departing at night.
In a city with only one main historic street it has been nightmarish. And Chinese girls, the ones we see at least, are not all that pretty, unlike European tourists.
But will I notice as I hunt the gutters for scraps of cabbage and burgers?
When the Bali volcano was smoldering away for months I am told that tourism got smashed… not that people were afraid of getting killed… rather they were unsure if they could return home to their jobs if ash was keeping flights grounded.
I think the higher number (about 10% or 11%) is intended to include the indirect impacts of tourism. It would include the the shops that make their living indirectly from the tourist trade, for example.
I noticed China opened up tourist sites in April. This article is dated April 6. Chinese tourist sites packed as country comes out of lockdown, but experts say risk still high This is an image shown with the article:
https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/200406153843-01-huangshan-tourists-coronavirus-exlarge-169.jpg
I know when I visited China in 2011 as a tourist, the number of Chinese tourists greatly exceeded foreign tourists. So China seems to be making tourism work again. People are so sick of staying at home, they will go somewhere, if let out and told that travel is OK. No one seems to be asking for a six foot distance between people in China, either.
It will be trickier getting international air travel going again. There are too many “pieces” that could go wrong.
I had understood that tourist travel essentially underpinned/underwrote business travel. I’m wondering what the effect on business will be of not being able to have personnel move about. I don’t think a great number of essential things can be done by Zoom.
Doomie Prepper Task of the Week:
Collect all dirty clothing and bedding over the next 7 days they wash it by hand.
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/how-a-free-extremely-low-risk-er-technique-is-saving-lives-from-coronavirus-215640425.html
“But there’s an even simpler solution that’s quietly being implemented in emergency rooms across the globe, one that doctors say could be saving countless lives: proning.”
simple solution…
maybe as simple as masks…
Have the patient lie on his/her stomach! Sounds like an easy way to put of ventilator use. In fact, I expect patients at home could try this.
A leaf blower can be used as a ventilator if you put it on the lowest setting.
GREAT THINKERS
Fast Eddy 1965 – 2020
Thucydides, 460 – c. 395.
John Locke, 1632 – 1704.
Plato, c. 428 – c. 348.
The Federalist, 1787 – 1788.
Aristotle, 384 – 322.
Moses Maimonides, 1138 – 1204.
Thomas Aquinas, 1225 – 1274.
Adam Smith, 1723 – 1790.
Exam Question: Does Fast Eddy belong at the top of the list given he has the advantage of the internet and an IQ of 700-1000 — and what might those other names have accomplished if they had similar tools?
You have one hour to complete this examination.
perhaps some/many commenters will have great optimism (and maybe a big dose of schadenfreude) that you have put your deceased year at 2020… 😉
I must get into the self promotion business
obviously a good survival strategy
If Aquinas had internet access, he would have become a atheist, maybe one of the New Atheists. The Federalist writers would have jumped on various cranky bandwagons. Thucydides would be making YouTube videos and hitting people up on Patreon. Plato would be teaching at Esalen. Adam Smith was mainly interested in Presbyterian theology, so God knows how that would translate. I can’t see him as one of these mega-church people. Locke would be a regular at the Dalai Lama’s “Mind and Life” conferences on consciousness.
Keep in mind.. if you added up all the IQs of those other thinkers …. you’d barely surpass the IQ of Fast Eddy….
IQs are indexes : you can’t add them, you samrt guy!
shhhhhhh
delusions always trump reality
raining on someone else’s IQ parade is not considered to be polite
Where shall we send the flowers?
FE I hold you in the greatest esteem and would place you equal or above such great thinkers of our time like pee wee herman. PS you will still be here in 2021- unless you do something really really stupid and then im downgrading you to …. wait for it… dumber than a normie.
I guarantee you not a single person on that list would have seen through the scam and identified the CDP.
If they were alive they’d all be cowering in fear of The Virus.
Lightweights ever single one of them. (and I do mean that)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-beef-output-is-down-way-more-than-shutdowns-suggest/ar-BB13uowU?li=BBnb7Kz
“Cattle slaughter dropped 37% this week from a year ago, U.S. Department of Agriculture data show. That far outstrips the 10% to 15% in capacity that’s been halted with meat plants closed after coronavirus outbreaks among employees. Hog slaughter was down 35%, also topping the shutdown figure of 25% to 30%.”
meat in stores is soon going to be rare…
“rare”…
I shopped the other day and noticed that the supermarket candy section (a large selection) was probably one third empty on the dark chocolate items…
I think that 99% of the public haven’t caught on yet to what is happening…
perhaps in a few more months or so…
This is very ominous dark chocolate news.: now I’m starting to worry……..
I was reading the book by General de la Billiere on the first Gulf War, and he said that a gift of a cheap chocolate bar from home, sent by his daughter, really set him up to start the fighting. He had ‘learned the value of chocolate in the SAS’. 🙂
Collapse seems to take time. One thing fails and then the next.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/buffett-on-why-he-hasnt-made-any-big-investments-we-dont-see-anything-that-attractive.html
“Buffett on why he hasn’t made any big investments: ‘We don’t see anything that attractive’…”
in other words, the economy is toast and there is no company worth investing in…
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/warren-buffett-says-the-economy-will-overcome-coronavirus-nothing-can-basically-stop-america.html
“Warren Buffett says the economy will overcome coronavirus: ‘Nothing can basically stop America’…”
now we know for sure that he is not a systems thinker…
https://www.breitbart.com/news/warren-buffett-american-magic-will-spur-us-economic-recovery/
Billionaire investor Warren Buffet said Saturday he’s confident the US economy will bounce back from its pummeling by the coronavirus pandemic because “American magic has always prevailed.”
it’s always bounced back in the past…
that’s a totally illlogical arrrgument…
we should feel confident because it’s “magic”… 😉
Bob is 95 and has heart disease – advanced dementia – diabetes – and Covid. Bob fell down the stairs and busted his skull and is in a coma on life support.
Bob has always bounced back before.
This is the logic economists seem to use.
It is not necessary to have a very high IQ to make a lot of money… although you probably have to have an IQ above a normie…
From what I have observed in many people who are quite wealthy – say worth USD10M or more… is an extreme love of money … they are obsessed with the stuff …. they will kill for an extra .01 ROI… and heaven forbid anyone take their precious money from them in the form of say — a higher tax on capital gains… they literally will kill (if they can get away with it) to stop that from happening…
If you have an extreme passion for something and a decent IQ — and you were not born in a Manila slum … odds are you will become wealthy.
https://media.giphy.com/media/C8976bDqhEUk40i8XU/giphy.gif
oh yeah? USA meets “Nothing”.
Yes, American exceptionalism will overcome the laws of nature itself!
Silly old fart.
Good point!
When you think about it, this was always the upshot of the Peak Oil situation.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/who-us-just-reported-deadliest-day-for-coronavirus.html
“The U.S. saw 2,909 people die of Covid-19 in 24 hours, according to the data, which was collected as of 4 a.m. ET on Friday.
That’s the highest daily death toll in the U.S. yet based on a CNBC analysis of the WHO’s daily Covid-19 situation reports. ”
so what?
reopen everything everywhere right now…
so we can get the test started… the test to see how much (if any) the economy will recover…
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-kills-people-an-average-of-a-decade-before-their-time-11588424401
“People dying of Covid-19 could have expected to live on average for at least another decade, according to two studies that help fill in the developing picture of the human cost of the coronavirus pandemic.”
the slant of the article is that it is a big deal that these victims could have lived 10 more years…
it’s not a big deal…
almost all of them had other health issues, and we’re talking about the last 10 years of their lives… in other words, the most difficult years health wise…
Think of all the money the healthcare and pharmaceutical industries will not be getting as a consequence of all those lost last decades!
My mother survived a nasty fall 1 1/2 years ago, and we nursed her back to health: she now says that dying was not that bad an experience – mostly hallucinatory, weird and wonderful, but not frightening – and she suspects it would have been much better to have gone then as her life is more limited and depressing now.
She is also full of dread at the next thing to go wrong, which is likely to be most unpleasant unless a sudden heart failure.
But now it seems we all have to be sentimental about keeping the very frail alive in horrible ‘homes’.
Won’t be much of a recovery, either way, I think we’ve established that. Especially if you start getting 10x the number of deaths per day by lifting mitigation measures. Including young people, and those sick of other causes or injured in pursuit of their daily lives who can’t get into a hospital, because the medical system has been overrun by CV-19 cases.
I guess that’s probably the way it will play out in the end. First, we have a false sense of security brought on by delaying the onset of infection, so we open up again in a vain attempt to go back to the way things were, (although why one would want to return to life as it was is anyone’s guess?), and get complacent, fast, in the process. We already have evidence that this is what will happen.
Then, the virus roars back in, amongst a now mobile again population. The second wave proves deadlier than the first, mainly because we’ve exhausted our resources trying to keep things together during the first and because frontline medical staff and research scientists are increasingly its victims. Whatever slim hopes there were for a vaccine will go by the wayside as the economy, hollowed out by popping of the credit bubble, finally collapses.
“In fact, the Swedish economy is shrinking just as rapidly as its neighbors.”
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/coronavirus-reopen-economy-lockdowns-jobless-claims-sweden-south-korea.html
“airlines traffic [is] down by 95% not because airlines can’t find people to staff the planes, but because no one is buying tickets. (The planes that do fly are empty, not full.)”
Ending lockdowns is not going to change much, economies everywhere are toast..
speaking of airlines:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/warren-buffett-says-berkshire-sold-its-entire-position-in-airlines-because-of-the-coronavirus.html
The prior stake, worth north of $4 billion dollars, included positions in United, American, Southwest and Delta Airlines…
“The world has changed for the airlines. And I don’t know how it’s changed and I hope it corrects itself in a reasonably prompt way,” he said.
I think he knows how bad this is and how much worse it will get, but he can’t say it in public…
yes economies everywhere are toast…
I suspect that the USA will see all of its airlines go bankrupt this year, perhaps 2021 if the government does fooolish 2020 rescue/bailout programs…
I would guess that one passenger airline will remain, which would be all that is needed… the only question would be if it is still a private company or if it is nationalized…
The respected chief physician of a catholic hospital in Tyrol was asked in national tv, why people about 80 years die like the flies in his hospital while the nuns who care for them and are not really younger stay healthy?
He answered, that is an error, the letality of Covid-19 is NOT related to age but to the physical constitution. It is no wonder the nuns dont get ill they get up early, work hard and are running the whole day. No wonder their immune systems can overcome the virus.
If that is true Covid-19 is in a way an oil-related illness. Maybe a Bronze Age society is not as bad as we think today?
In an earlier form of society, without hospitals, epidemiologist and idiot lock-down king politicians, it would have passed through like whirlwind, carried off the weak and elderly and everyone would have got back to work after, at worst, a week or two of fever and coughing. No great shakes unless it happened to coincide with harvest or sowing when all hands were needed.
Xabier,
May I ask how you are personally dealing with the virus and surrounding issues? Looking forward do you have scenarios and what you might do to deal with them?
So much here is macro, beyond our control, beyond change by anything we as an individual do, but up close and personal.
As you probably know, I don’t plan on quitting.
Dennis L.
No expensive healthcare system that needed to be catered to.
The West: 10% of the global population, but 90% of the covid problem
if you accept the (fake) Chinese data as being real…
US data is of course 100% accurate – right?
The people of Africa would laugh if you told them they had to go into their mud huts and not come out. They have real diseases to deal with. Plus they know they would starve.
Indeed. The only reason elites can tell people to “eat cake”… er… “work from home” and still get salaries is because someone else is out there humping…
Another argument in support of extincting humans….
I can’t get why BCG vaccine isn’t massively used in some places, while the vast majority of the world does it. Possibly a main character in this play
the TB vaccine?
do you have any new(er) info on whether or not having had this shot in the past is helpful now against the C19 virus?
No new info, just the map every one knows
This is another inexpensive, possibly preventative approach, that people aren’t following up on, as far as I know. The interest is in expensive new treatments.
Why not everywhere?
Reusable mask for every Hongkonger as Covid-19 progress heralds easing of curbs
Hong Kong government plan to mask city’s 7.5 million population for free set for roll-out next week with preparations ‘at final stage’.
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3082635/coronavirus-all-hongkongers-be-given-masks-can-be
Ultimately this is also futile — it will not eliminate the virus. But the optics are wonderful
A neighbour who owns a pub told me yesterday that one of the biggest employers in QT (they own half a dozen significant tourism outfits) is not going to reopen any venues even if we go to Level 2 in mid-May (they are looking at closing for at least a year) – the govt wage subsidies end shortly so they intend to fire most staff.
The biggest restaurant group in town will only reopen 4 outlets and only on weekends (dinner only)… their other outlets are done. She says these guys are well-financed so if they are not opening outlets, she expects most of Queenstown will be a ghost town. Most retail and F&B in QT are baked.
No tourists and locals who are on welfare do not bode well for retail or F&B.
Most property projects from new hotels to villa developments to other tourist accommodation have been mothballed so once the tradies finish what’s in the pipeline they will mostly be out of work. Nobody will be building personal accommodation as there will be a massive glut of residential property.
That’s just the stuff she knows about.
Hmmm… I wonder where the tax $$$ is going to come from to run the city going forward – no property consents for new builds — sh—it loads of properties not paying rates when they go to foreclosure … retail and F&B paying mostly nothing…. etc etc etc…. half the city on welfare and getting food vouchers.
QT Council is cashed up so they are able to fork out 500k for food (that will have to end at some point …) I wonder about Councils in less cashed up areas of NZ — when the govt wage subsidies end what happens there?
Apparently there are loads of homes being dumped on the market at roughly 30% off — those will definitely not sell as they are still overpriced. The property market is going to get flattened due to forced sales and personal bankruptcies.
This is not only happening in QT – the entire country has been decimated by 6 weeks in restrictive lockdown.
Maybe Ardern (who has never had a real job in her entire life) should have listened to someone with both medical and finance experience – Burry nailed this https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/michael-burry-slams-virus-lockdowns-in-controversial-tweetstorm
6 months minimum of no international air travel? Multiple the above by the entire world…..
for once we are in agreement Eddy
not to worry
I shall seek medical advice for that problem on Monday
online/remote/virtual doctor visit?
I thought I’d better go to ER this morning (i still had the shakes from last night)
all they could suggest was euthanasia, which I thought was reasonable
That was terribly kind of them, Norman. How sweet.
well they did make the fair point that the UK health service would run perfectly if it wasn’t for all the sick people they have to deal with
FE can I get a good price on a house?
I reckon the only people who will bite on the 30% discounts are DelusiSTANIS…. these are the foools who believe the V-recovery headlines….
Watch what happens when the government wage subsidies run out in 5 weeks or so…. and the world is still mired in the massive economy disaster that Covid lockdowns have delivered…
There the serious desperation will start… then you’ll get the bankruptcies and forced selling by the banks…
Then of course as I informed my Westpac guy the other day — the banks will be faced with mega losses (I doubt they’ll be able to sell much of anything at any price). There is no way in hell I’d buy a house even if it was 10 cents on the dollar because there is no way to make a return on it .. few tourists so short term rates will be horrible …. (M Fast doesnt get out of bed … to clean … unless she can make at least 200 bucks on the rental…)…. the market will be flooded with long term rentals and nobody to rent them because there will be no jobs…
Watch this space if the ski hills (4 of them) announce in May that they will not open for the season.
I can’t see it happening – even if there is a ‘bubble’ with Aussies allowed in — I reckon a ski trip will not be a high priority when your export markets have cratered and the country is in an economic depression….
Hey maybe the Council and hand out ski passes like they are doing with food vouchers!!!
If the hills do not open that will put a spike through the heart of the city. Also if we go L2 and the restaurants that are not bankrupt already open – then shut because trade is lower than expected… that news will spread… and hack the head off the town.
This is a slow motion train wreck we are witnessing in QT and globally….
People try to remain hopeful — because otherwise they fall into depression and thoughts of sui ci de dance through their heads… (at least that’s what M Fast tells me).
For me it’s the exact opposite… I am uplifted by all the grim news …. oil price collapse – awesome… failed states – great! starvation imminent —- wonderful…… massive unemployment numbers – joyous….
Why do I take pleasure — well it’s because I want humans to be extinct… they had zero value to the planet (actually they destroy it)…. they think they are smart but they are morrrrons….
Having trouble understanding how I feel about humans? Just think about how you feel when you look at this — then multiple by 10000000000000000000
http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1399005/images/o-DIRTY-RAT-facebook.jpg
As I stated the other day, Queenstown a nice place to visit, but a horrible place to live when things turn down. There are no close food sources, everything has to be brought in.
it is certainly not the place I would want to be when the end of world happened. I much prefer to be in a food producing region.
Good luck FE, sounds like you will need it there…
The only good thing about being in Queenstown …. is I am about as far as you can get from the spent fuel pond plumes of radiation ….
So when your hair and scalp is sloughing off … and you are vomiting your intestines onto the ground (and the dogs are fighting over them)….
I’ll still be drinking whisky… and enjoying a few more sunsets…. waiting for the invisible grim reaper … to arrive.
https://media.giphy.com/media/YuBBsRbxHJgm4/giphy.gif
Nope, you will get those plumes around the same time as I get them, as our prevailing winds are from the southwest in the Southern Ocean, only we will not have died from starvation, nor masses descending upon us looking for food, because we are too far away from them. You have hordes from Queenstown/lakes district (pop ~40,000) after your food, we only have a few hundred within 15kms and the nearest town of a few thousand over 40km away, nearest area of 40,000 well over 100km away..
All those doomer preppers, well away from population centres are looking quite smart about now (if out of the range of the radiation plumes)…
I suspect that the last thing you will be thinking about is eating a salad when you have vomited your entrails onto the ground and your skin is sloughing off …
And btw — the salad will be chock full of bad stuff as the plume (that will persist for a few thousand years…) drops nasty stuff into your garden.
Ionizing radiation—the kind that minerals, atom bombs and nuclear reactors emit—does one main thing to the human body: it weakens and breaks up DNA, either damaging cells enough to kill them or causing them to mutate in ways that may eventually lead to cancer
The most common early symptoms of radiation sickness are the same as for many other illnesses — nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea. They can start within minutes of exposure, but they may come and go for several days.
End-of-life care. A person who has absorbed very large doses of radiation has little chance of recovery. Depending on the severity of illness, death can occur within two days or two weeks. People with a lethal radiation dose will receive medications to control pain, nausea, vomiting and diarrhea.
You can just pretend these are fa ke facts … and continue watering your garden with a plastic hose with water pumped from the tap… (pretend that the water will still come out of the tap post BAU too!)
I am prepared to measure the radioactivity while it kills me FE. Some time ago I four Geiger counters of different types at an auction for $100.
This sounds like a huge mess. Trying to kill the virus has put a tourniquet to the economy.
How do you kill something that technically isn’t alive?
At a basic level, viruses are proteins and genetic material that survive and replicate within their environment, inside another life form. In the absence of their host, viruses are unable to replicate and many are unable to survive for long in the extracellular environment. Therefore, if they cannot survive independently, can they be defined as being ‘alive’?
https://bit.ly/3b2ktwC
Similar to trying to kill a normie….
A good way to put it: I was reading about ancient Greek and Roman medicine,and thy knew about tourniquets, but didn’t know what to do next.
Very clever at safely sewing wounds together though.
We have the massive wound -the lab-produced virus -t and the emergency action -the tourniquet – and still the patient will be amputated or die, probably both.
Also, for centuries, all Greek and Roman doctors agreed that open wounds should be disturbed and not allowed to heal.
They adhered to this theory as good science, taught in all the best medical academies, despite the deaths that nearly always resulted. Their line was ‘There is no alternative, we must do it’. In fact, the history of medicine is littered with such stupidity on the part of experts.
Lock-downs anyone?
Idiot silo-thinking epidemiologists saying they must go on for ‘maybe years’ -who’s going to pay their salaries, I wonder, or feed them?
Silo thinking epidemiologists influence silo thinking voters, who can think no farther than “what might happen to me and my close relatives.” Economists have their models that say, “Whatever happened in the past must continue in the near future.” So any recession must be brief. Put it all together, and there is a big mess.
I think the scenario FE painted is a global one. I think that will play out a lot around the world. That’s why the best scenario is a deep Depression. A worst case scenario is a global economic collapse.
Who cares bud either way we were going down . Massive debt and massive population growth and massive consumption. Quit your crying…baby eddy
Who cares bud either way we were going down . Massive debt and massive population growth and massive consumption. Quit your crying…baby eddy
Yes I agree Fast Eddy only has one gear does not quite get it yet. He is probably a Baby boomer who was hoping that the crash would come when he was gone! Sorry old timer you are going to have to ride this one out too…ha…ha! I think I dis like the baby boomers more than the greenies!!!!!
Fast Eddy is to young (and he would probably say handsome) to be a Baby Boomer.
I’m as pessimistic as he is, and I too am not a Boomer.
Correct.
Yes one gear —- and one speed — 700IQ per hour.
http://d.ibtimes.co.uk/en/full/1485208/speed-light.jpg
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus
Official stats on India have 39,699 cases having added 2442 today, with added numbers escalating recently.
However, India has only done on average 708 tests for every 1 million people, which pales in comparison to more affluent countries. For example Russia has done 27,000 tests for every 1M and the US near 21,000. Bangladesh has only done 408 per 1M, Senegal just 28 per 1M.
So what we are seeing is poorer countries failing to test enough, which is likely disguising their case count, which will lead to it spreading faster. By Mid-Summer India and Bangladesh will be in the throes of an exploding situation. Those countries can’t social distance much because there’s too many people living together. Imagine living in a home with 63 people. If one gets it they all get exposed. With poor nutrition will worsen the symptoms and speed of transmission.
What was it the two doctors said (I think they repeated that a few times) … 96 of 100 people who get covid show minimal or no symptoms… 4 out of 100 will need to be hospitalized… of those 4 90% will recover and be fine.
And most people who die are old and busted up already.
Here’s some data on the deaths in Spain https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105596/covid-19-mortality-rate-by-age-group-in-spain-march/
https://larouchepac.com/sites/default/files/nothingburger.JPEG
And this is not a nothing burger:
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Clocks Massive $50 billion loss due to Coronavirus Lockdowns
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway on Saturday posted a record net loss of nearly $50 billion as the coronavirus pandemic pummeled its common stock investments.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/warren-buffetts-berkshire-posts-record-net-loss-of-nearly-50-billion-on-coronavirus.html
https://static.politico.com/dims4/default/9fef417/2147483647/resize/1160x%3E/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fs3-origin-images.politico.com%2F2015%2F03%2F02%2F20150302_warrenbuffet_getty_1160.jpg
You could literally have bought random old gold US coins twenty years ago, put them in a shoebox, and beat Buffett’s return on investment. Yet he’s the world’s greatest stock guru. I can’t think of another industry that needs to get whacked harder than finance.
100% agree thanks FE it is quite simple. As the lady in Wuhan said it is a lie.
LOL, you two should go and get yourselves some nothing burgers. Bon appetite! So the whole world has been duped and they don’t know it? That’s truly laughable. The virus only came on the scene a few months ago and it’s still in the early stages of spreading. There’s lots of people in the world, so it will take time for the numbers to reach a point in which you two are forced to acknowledge what’s happening. If you’re impatient, go eat some more nothing burgers and put on some nothing condiments.
Covid 19 was supposed to have exponential growth. And it does. Its spread as evidenced by the large number of people who have had it and recovered. Anywhere antibody tests have been done sizable portions of the population come back had it didnt know it, immune now. Dont know if you noticed but were in the 5th month of 2020.
You cant have it both ways. YOU ACKNOWLEDGE. If its not very infectious and hasnt spread its not the CRAZY KILLER CLOWN COVID fear mongering predicted. If it is infectious the death rates are a tenth of what the CRAZY KILLER CLOWN COVID fear mongering predicted.
The truth is its spread its not as bad as forecast. Not even close. The economic disaster is just starting. How long do you think is appropriate to wait before we come out our holes scared of our shadow?
If you think its dangerous by all means take all precautions you feel necessary. It your body and your life. Isolate for ten years if you want.
CRAZY KILLER CLOWN COVID ITS GOING TO GET YOU.
The damage has been done so even if the lockdowns stopped — there is no way back.
A guy down the road from me got it in January, before anybody knew about it. He had the classic symptoms, dry cough, moving into his chest. He said the weird thing was, when it was in his chest, he could breath in easily, but breathing out was kind of choked off. He got over it just fine, even though it moved into his chest. He is over the age of 50, and is a bit rotund, so he was not a shining example of health.
India might be in for a bad covid outbreak. Many people in India are in poor health. Covid is like a wolf. It takes down the feeble from the herd.
Let’s throw a scrap of meat to a normie….
Will New Zealand have a flu epidemic?
New Zealand experiences epidemics of seasonal flu each year.
This time of year is called “flu season.” In New Zealand, flu season occurs in the winter – flu outbreaks can happen as early as April and can last as late as October.
CDC (Center for Disease Control and Prevention) says the flu season begins when certain key flu indicators (for example, levels of influenza-like illness (ILI), hospitalisation and deaths) rise and remain elevated for a number of consecutive weeks.
Usually ILI increases first, followed by an increase in hospitalisations, which is then followed by increases in flu-associated deaths.
https://www.workinghealth.co.nz/all-your-flu-vaccine-questions-answered-here/
It is indeed a nothing burger. A fake pandemic with a massive serving of fake news.
The virus isn’t particularly dangerous and has only been responsible for just over 1% of the deaths so far this year and has only affected 0.04% of the population and has killed off a mere 0.0028% of it.
The novel coronavirus which has killed ~225,000 people to date (the vast majority of them very old and/or very sick). But even this is uncertain because it is unclear whether these deaths were actually caused by the coronavirus or whether the coronavirus just happened to be present in their bodies at the time of death and the vast majority of those who have died from it had comorbidities. E.g. elderly immunocompromised morbidly obese diabetics with high blood pressure, cancer and other potential fatal ailments have been particularly susceptible.
If you discard all fatal cases with comorbidities and only consider young healthy people, then the number of deaths where the new coronavirus is obviously the root cause is very low. In Australia the number is zero.
The World Health Organization establishes thresholds to determine whether to declare an influenza epidemic that range between 2.5% and 5%. The novel coronavirus misses the mark by a thousand-fold, yet the WHO has declared it to be the cause of a global pandemic. If this seems like an extreme overreaction, that is because it is an extreme overreaction.
CDP. Clearly CDP….
Obviously
You only commit suicide — because it’s less painful that dying from the disease itself.
So the whole world has been duped and they don’t know it? That’s truly laughable.
Or lamentable, depending on one’s point of view.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C4fRYejUcAErdyz.jpg
Assuming the death rate is 1%: 78M eventually leave earlier than planned
This would not even stop global population growth (in a ‘normal’ year).
1.6 billion out of a job – that could kill a lot more than 78M, and probably will.
If the lockdowns are successful at crashing the global economy: maybe we all die (in the UK anyway)
I don’t think we have long to wait, a few months should do it. In the meantime, I am discretely building up the family ‘final feast’ box. I appreciate how lucky I am to be able to do that when so many have no job and no food.
I have my wife’s family in the UK. It worries me greatly how they are being locked in and sleepwalking to a food disaster. Flour is already in short supply. I think they are on this side of forced starvation.
The UK people are well conditioned sheeple.
Yup, that’s why I never bought into the fear and hysteria. Thanks for the link !
yes, this is a mild pandemic, R0 is higher than flu and so is death rate, but it kills mostly older persons who are going to die soon anyway…
so no need at all for fear and hysteria…
then there is the Greater Depression which we are now in, and the permanent mass unemployment and dire poverty which is coming…
no need for fear and hysteria for that either…
For the people who are amping up the fear and hysteria, the R0 numbers are off the charts. For the people who are saying now wait a minute, the Flu kills more each year and the punishment doesn’t fit the crime. It’s why many are asking, was it necessary to shutdown the global economy?
But I do agree that the economic impact will kill more than Covid 19 and maybe just maybe that was what TPTB were hoping for because the system in it’s current form is unsustainable.
Now they have a scapegoat, Covid 19.
there is a theeorry that is new to me that I just saw…
that the Chinese Commmunists knew how bad this was, but they didn’t want to be the only ones suffering the consequences (health and economic), so they wanted it to spread worldwide…
to me, any theeeorry about “TPTB” and their involvement in this whole scenario must include the origin within the Chinese government…
how do you fit the Chinese government original responses into the following responses by “TPTB”?
there has to be a logical place for their original responses/lockdown…
I can’t say and don’t know the culpability of the CCP. The US Gov’t is leaning on the thought that the Chinese let this out of the Wuhan Lab, perhaps by accident. Gov’t’s typically have their research agencies developing vaccines for new viruses and some are created for just that purpose,
I can’t see why the CCP would intentionally release a known virus when the blowback has hurt them immensely.
Have a look at this:
A Special Report by Peter R. Breggin, MD, April 15, 2020
In 2015, American researchers and Chinese Wuhan Institute of Virology researchers collaborated to transform an animal coronavirus into one that can attack humans. Scientists from prestigious American universities and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) worked directly with the two coauthor researchers from Wuhan Institute of Virology, Xing-Yi Ge and Zhengli-Li Shi. Funding was provided by the Chinese and US governments. The team succeeded in modifying a bat coronavirus to make it capable of infecting humans.
The research was published in December 2015 in the prestigious British journal, Nature Medicine (volume 21, pages1508–1513). The paper by Vineet D. Menachery et al., “A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence” is available here as a PDF as well as on-line.i
Footnotes to the scientific paper disclose that the research was funded by both the Chinese and US Governments, including grants from the NIH’s National Institute of Allergy & Infectious Disease.
Footnotes also document that the two Chinese researchers were active in their own laboratories as part of this coronavirus project.
At the bottom of the first page, the affiliation of both Chinese coauthors is listed as “Key Laboratory of Special Pathogens and Biosafety, Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, China.” The Chinese were being aided by the American government, American universities and American researchers in developing a potential military weapon with the capacity to cause a pandemic intentionally or accidentally.
Multiple prestigious American researchers and institutions were involved. One is from the FDA’s National Center for Toxicological Research in Jefferson, Arkansas. The first author of the article, Vineet Menachery, is from the Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Several other authors are from the University of North Carolina and one is from Harvard Medical School. There is also a Swiss researcher.
The researchers themselves note in the text of the article that the risks associated with the creation of their human pathogen were significant. They openly wondered if their research compromised U.S. federal standards for research on dangerous pathogens.
The potential dangers of the creation of new human coronavirus pathogens in the American/Chinese Menachery research were discussed in a commentary by Jef Akst in The Scientist on November 16, 2015. However, the danger of the Chinese collaboration went unmentioned.
https://breggin.com/us-chinese-scientists-collaborate-on-coronavirus/
https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985
take a night off from doomerizing and watch this, for the sheer joy of it
You might also enjoy the Avalon Jazz Band – simply wonderful. Yes, the singer is very pretty and vivacious indeed -,some good lock-down lyrics, too.
The Five Eyes intelligence on the Coronavirus.
https://amp.dailytelegraph.com.au/coronavirus/bombshell-dossier-lays-out-case-against-chinese-bat-virus-program/news-story/55add857058731c9c71c0e96ad17da60
I edited the link a bit, and it now works for me.
This is a long article about the likelihood that the virus was man-made, based on a 15-page research document prepared by concerned Western governments. Quite a bit of it we have seen before. One part that I hadn’t seen before is the role that Australia played in this. This is a bit of the Australia section:
AUSTRALIA’S INVOLVEMENT
Their just like mini doggys with wings. Why isnt Shi at the Hauge?
Bats are wonderful creatures. They invented so much that we think of as ours. Reciprocal altruism: a starving bat will be fed by its nestmates. Chirp sonar, which we still cannot get right. Flying in formation at night, which no birds can do. One fourth of all mammal species are bats; the Chiroptera are by far the most successful Order in our Class.
And the dreaded vampire bats extract blood painlessly, and are very careful not to overgraze their food resource. Humans, please copy.
The meat thing is disturbing. I love bacon. I don’t eat no pork though.
https://nypost.com/2020/05/02/intelligence-report-says-china-lied-about-origin-of-coronavirus/
‘China lied about origin of coronavirus, leaked intelligence report says’
“A damning dossier leaked from the “Five Eyes” intelligence alliance claims that China lied to the world about human-to-human transmission of the virus, disappeared whistleblowers and refused to hand over virus samples so the West could make a vaccine.”
“The bombshell 15-page research document also indicated that the virus was leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, a claim initially dismissed as a conspiracy theory because Chinese officials insisted the virus came from the local wet markets, according to the Australian Daily Telegraph.”
‘The virus from a lab’ is now pretty much confirmed. Hopefully most of you got to see the video by Chris Martenson pinning this on the lab as well. I linked that video yesterday but you can find it easy enough on YouTube. It’s entitled: Newsweek Bombshell: Covid-19 Virus Lab-Made? Fauci Connected?
Yeah, find out how Fauci was connected to the funding of the research. Also, in his video is that scene from Jurassic Park when Jeff Goldblum says, “Your scientists were so busy wondering if they could do it, they never stopped to ask themselves if they should.”
The concern I have with a geo-engineered virus with random snipets (including HIV segments) spliced into that initial RNA viral fragment that got loose, is nothing on Earth evolved with it. It started with a natural bat virus, but once it was tweaked into a synthetic virus it was alien to our bodies with no history of exposure matter how far back we look.
Additionally, due to the random possible permutations our bodies will have as a reaction to a synthetic virus (which we are seeing with the huge number of possible symptoms and attacks on vital organs, blood clotting, etc), we don’t know what it’s capable of as far as mutating as needed to escape attack from drugs or vaccines or to be deadly to a higher percentage of the population. In fact, attempts to attack it may just make it alter it to dodge the attack or become a worse version of itself, i.e. become stronger, like bacteria has mutated into super germs via assault by anti-bodies.
And to think that we as a species unleashed this thing on ourselves; that’s palpable.
Apportioning blame in this instance is “like handing out speeding tickets at the Indy 500”.
https://nostalgiacentral.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/apocalypsenow_069-1.jpg
Cost of education: what is possible today in mathematics, college and high school level.
Our CC went Zoom after spring break, I miss the social interaction, my current class is Calc II, basic college math.
What I have learned. Zoom works fairly well, the texts are very good and there are subscription online services($30/month) that take students through the steps to solve a program and also provide online tutors – the top rated via thumbs up tutor now on line is a Penn State, MIT grad. included with the monthly fee, the service can be stopped/started any time.
You can study at any time and have an answer to your questions at any time of day/night. If you chose to cheat you can get answers to all the problems on line, I do all my own problems.
For lab courses establish some central labs in major cities, go in, do your experiments and go home. For the cost of most courses(we shall omit chemistry) rent materials to the students to do their experiment(yes, there are advanced courses, need a real, expensive lab).
This “plague” is going to require social distancing, I guess. Earlier I mentioned Harvard was thinking of going distance learning. Why go to Harvard if there are no on campus courses? Harvard and other schools of this level are networking experiences. For those who are exceptional, elite, top universities are not replaceable. For the rest of us say up to 98% percentile IQ this looks doable.
No one saw this one coming, I don’t think many see changes in higher ed coming. A guess is courses are becoming commoditized, they are becoming mostly like the best. Teachers get a fast thumbs up, thumbs down. Some students look for an easy way out, others look to learn.
It will be interesting to see what happens this fall. We have the auto industry, the airline industry, the travel industry with incredible changes. We worry about supply chains, if cars are not made, not a problem. Need a plane, Boeing already has an inventory ready and waiting. Want to get sick, marooned at sea for a few weeks, try a cruise(now, that is a bit of sarcasm).
We are told that after a rather modest amount, people are satisfied, it is enough. What if that is correct? What if people decide cooking is fun, and eating in a small group at a restaurant is not that much fun if one doesn’t have to work like hell all the time? Modern restaurants are noisy and seem designed to turn tables. What if people become social on a level not related to virtue signalling, not requiring to be seen with the largest house to signal status, not the trophy wife. What do the unhappy ultra wealthy signal? What if it is not important any more? Think the cover of People Magazine, divorce, depression, rehab, affairs and impossibly tight dresses for the women. Those who have seen fashion shoots know the clothes are held in place with clothespins, everything is accented, makeup artists stand by to fluff and puff.
This year of education has been an eye opener, it is all there for STEM, it does not require a classroom any more, the level of instruction for all but the Will Hunting’s of the world is very good.
Always the optimist, looking for the opportunities, the pluses, not the minuses.
Dennis L.
I highly recommend to anyone who is a student that they don’t bother with the false hope thing….
Revisit the 60’s… buy dope including acid… and do the free love thing….
Surely that is more interesting than studying for a calculus test when there is not job (or world) at the end of the tunnel.
FE,
It is fun to read things, supposedly mental exercise helps the brain. Math makes reading technical materials much easier if one is fluent. Have neither need nor interest in a job. Knowledge is portable, only age and disease can take it away.
I would recommend any student take two years of college math, wonderful foundation, a second language, some good literature that has withstood the test of time, Robert is the wizard at that, I look forward to his quotes from Malta I believe.
If not college bound, and I don’t see the need for most students, take a trade along with accounting, learn money. Money and a trade will serve a man well. As a woman, a suitable arrangement with a man is half the cost of making it alone, done right more time for both to live, what is saved is all after tax money. Who benefits from all this feminism? People selling things, If you are not >98% IQ, pretty hard to run in the fast track these days, even with hard work there are only so many hours. Groups do better than individuals, two do better than one, not easy to be sure. The elites on the cover of People are some of the most messed up people, not a very good role model.
At Madison I was a housefellow in the sixties, drugs, sex and rock and roll didn’t work very well. As a resident I saw STD, think hamburger, raw hamburger.
Musings of an old man, trying to understand parts of life, have heard many predictions, most of them have been wrong, trying to adapt what can be done to what is. I think it is going to be okay.
All the best,
Dennis L.
Alternatively…. if one wants to depart this world in an enlightened state… go through every article on OFW and read all posts from FE…. from the standpoint of knowing that Fast Eddy knows everything … and when he’s wrong he’ll change his mind … in the interest of maintaining a perfect track record…
You can actually witness the maturation of a massive intellect as it grows into a powerful 700-1000IQ unstoppable behemoth. It would be possible to power civilization for another 100+ years by connecting the grid to FE’s cranial output (quite dangerous though as the voltage is sky high…) but FE will not allow that because he feels that is not in Mother’s interests….
Anyone ever golfed? You know when you have that tough put and you misread it and the ball sails wide by 5cm….. and you think jeez if I could only hit that again I’d run it a little harder down that other line and I’d sink it… the rules of golf don’t allow you to do that.
These rules to not apply to FE. And FE does not golf.
“Teachers get a fast thumbs up, thumbs down.”
I had a colleague who would give his students a chocolate at the same time that he handed out the student assesment/feedback forms (assessing his teaching).
He used to laugh about what a huge difference it made in his assessments. A very cynical man, he was.
Dennis, if it’s so easy to cheat, then what will be the value of the credential?
http://grist.org/energy/in-the-middle-of-coronavirus-renewables-are-taking-over-the-grid/
For those who are convinced that green energy is the answer to all our energy issues, I would suggest perusing Alice Friedemann’s work at http://energyskeptic.com/
She has done an incredible amount of research into our dependence of fossil fuel energy and the actual feasibility of switching over.
Generally, she suggests we really do need fossil fuels for baseline energy.
also Solar and wind are great ideas at smaller scale but don’t really scale up to run civilization. In her latest article she reviews Moore’s film, Planet of the Humans. Worth a look…..
I saw MM film
I really like how Al Gore is exposed as a total fraud…. yet as the mouthpiece for G W… he is telling the truth — even though the G W thing… drives his renewable businesses….
https://media.giphy.com/media/TZKFBveHtquAM/giphy.gif
Thank you for the reference; a great contribution to the debate. However, I arrive at a slightly different conclusion. The problem is not how to scale up solar and wind to run our civilisation, but rather how to scale down our civilisation so it can be run by solar and wind. But that is a song sung very often in this forum.
I think as Gail. But i saw this link and i shared because was write 1 May
It is too variable and the mathematical issue is not unlike losing 20% of your capital and having to gain 25% to breakeven. More energy is necessary going up as compared to going down assuming killowatt-hours which is the power. The same thing happens driving, drive 10 mph under the average and driving 10 over the average does not balance. Kelly’s criterion does about the same thing.
Dennis L.
When we’ve scaled down our civilisation so it can be run by solar and wind, Robert, your wife is going to say to you every morning: “Do you want to do the hunting while I do the gathering today, dear? Or shall I do the hunting while you do the gathering?”
Tim, I don’t think the citizens of Babylon, Hellenistic Alexandria and Rome, or Renaissance Florence did much hunting and gathering. I think you underestimate the ingenuity of our species, which seems to be at its best when faced with limits, and at its worst when gifted with too many resources and too much technological hubris.
I’ve said this before, but I see this crisis as one that will replace false values with true values. Fiat money with sound money; wasteful technologies with finesse technologies that work with Nature rather than against her; Commedia dell’Arte plays instead of CGI monsters in wide screen; Greek tragedies in outdoor theatres designed with acoustics that actually work; holidays in the country a half day’s walk from the city gate; and, above all, a respect for this good earth and its natural limits. In other words, a real civilisation. The historical models, the social organisations, the old technologies are all there; we need only pay them heed.
a rather surprising comment, overlaying what was a world population that was less than probably 0.5 bn. with one that is now around 7.5 bn
coupled with the somewhat odd concept of open air theatres (where? I think you daydream of mediterranean climes, with no thought of the barbarians in the northern forests) I’m not too clear about the social structure of the ancient world, but I have my doubts about the rural peasantry of ancient Rome seeing much classical theatre, any more than a miner or farmworkers in late 18th c listening to a Beethoven or Mozart concert.
The citizens you mention didn’t do much hunting and gathering because they enslaved others or paid others to do it for them.
No matter how ingenious , a society can only sustain itself through the leverage available.
If your ‘leverage’ is the cartwheel, then that will be the limit of your ‘progress’. If your leverage is the steam engine, your progress gives the impression of being ‘unlimited’. That was our ultimate delusion of course.
We don’t hunt/gather because we can afford to distance ourselves from abbattoirs or the sweat of harvesting—we pay other people/machines to do that.
Every sophisticated society (at whatever level) must be supported by a resource of surplus energy, ours happens to be largely invisible. That is why we don’t have to hunt or gather.
yet
worth watching I think
https://youtu.be/ppv2f1yfwMM
Cool!
Is this supposed to be inspiring?
I find it to be the opposite. It seems extremely manipulative.
I didn’t watch it … because I expected it would be normie rubbish… and now I definitely will not watch it even though I am now intrigued by just how st u pi d it must be….
there will always be minds that waves of verse will leave untouched.
unless chalked on walls
seemed like no more than a gentle diversion
but we are all entitled to look for ulterior motives if we are so inclined
I wasn’t looking for ulterior motives. I should have just skipped the thing like FE.
My honest, felt, response was that it was cloying, annoying, and tendentious. Nothing gentle about it—it was about as subtle as a sledgehammer.
Normies like that sort of thing…. kinda like cats like strings…
https://media.giphy.com/media/Ow6GN06MImUaA/giphy.gif
The more I think about this video, the angrier I get.
Where does Mr. Smug Dad get his little poem? Has he memorized it? Apparently it is printed in some sort of “book” using some sort of “paper” (have you priced paper lately?).
The little fillip at the end where he blows out the candle is also excruciating. What candle? What bees? What cotton or linen for the wick? Even when we were half-a-billion-to-a-billion people, there was a phrase in several languages, “the game’s not worth the candle”. Candles were luxury items, and will be again, if anyone is left even alive to make them. Maybe the candle is rendered out of mum?
Oh, yes, we were all so terrible before: making paper and using candles and even presuming to go about in vehicles.. but now we’re no longer terrible.. everything is right as rain!
I haven’t even watched it and I feel like taking my hockey stick and cross checking him in the face
http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1155838/penaltyy.gif
life is too short to express such anger about something so utterly trivial
try these to focus different emotions
https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/people/theres-now-webcam-filming-york-station-goose-nest-2654756
https://metro.co.uk/video/american-woman-cuts-hole-face-mask-make-easier-breathe-2164644/
Britain could be at risk of blackouts as extremely low energy demand threatens to leave the electricity grid overwhelmed by surplus power.
National Grid asked the regulator yesterday for emergency powers to switch off solar and wind farms to prevent the grid from being swamped on the May 8 bank holiday, when demand is expected to be especially low.
In its urgent request to Ofgem, it warned of “a significant risk of disruption to security of supply” if the “last resort” powers to order plant disconnections were not granted.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/blackout-risk-as-low-demand-for-power-brings-plea-to-switch-off-wind-farms-xv36v575x
seems to be the same problem as the oil producers having nowhere to put their surplus oil
Wind and solar come when the economy doesn’t need them. They tend to make wholesale electricity prices negative. They get to be a huge problem, rather than a solution.
A solution, not politically possible now, but going forward?
For customers, take the number of negative kilowatt-hours multiply that by the cost plus profit of a killowatt hour from conventional and add that on to the bill for kilowatt-hours supplied by the plant. This covers all costs, cash and depreciation and also aids the environment. For those who object, a simple demand meter, turn off the lights when renewables aren’t working, it is a teaching moment as they say. This could be part of the reasoning behind smart meters. It mirrors reality and sooner or later reality wins.
I know it will not be done now, but going forward? For skin in the game, have those who support renewables be forced to invest their pensions in a cleaner, better future. The discussion will get real at this point and reasonable people can make reasonable decisions.
Dennis L.
The oversupply tends to come in the spring and fall, when heating and cooling of homes aren’t really needed.
Winter will likely be very cold and dark, if we depend on renewables.
Summer may have an excess for air conditioning. This is what made solar so attractive to some.
When demand falls, you reduce supply. Every business knows that; why does it take “emergency powers” to implement basic economics? Of course, because of rules and bureaucrats, the two surest ways to make organisations unfit for purpose.
Robert,
Traditionally in the US utilities were regarded as essential services and natural monopolies. Rates were set by state agencies to guarantee an adequate rate of return based on capital employed. I am not certain, but I suspect a certain percentage of available power at all hours and necessary capital entered into that. We had Enron which thought they could do it all with numbers, failed miserably. It is a guess going forward with very large sunk capital costs and once associated maintenance costs of that capital, skimp on maintenance and blackouts are the result, spend too much on capital and the return goes to heck. It worked well in the US prior to deregulation.
Dennis L.
Renewables have been allowed to “go first,” whether they are needed or not. When they do this, but the supply is really not needed, it translates to negative rates for others.
What will the CBs be unable to control that triggers the implosion…..
We have lots of choices: broken supply lines, closing businesses, rapidly rising unemployment, unavailable oil or electricity, unavailable letters of credit for transport, derivative failures to name a few.
Crisis In Processing – Thousands Of Meatpacking Workers Infected, Deaths Hit 20
“The president’s executive order will only ensure that more workers get sick, jeopardizing lives, family income, communities, and, of course, the country’s food supply chain,” said Kim Cordova, leader of the local United Food and Commercial Workers International Union chapter, which represents 3,000 workers at the JBS SA beef plant in Greeley, Colorado. She said the president’s executive order is no solution to the current supply issues developing.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crisis-processing-thousands-meatpacking-workers-infected-deaths-hit-20
My point is not on the virus or death but the supply chain.
At some point, we really need workers with antibodies against this virus working. But is there any way of getting to that point?
When my wife & I went to Italy in 2015, in Florence we paid for a Firenze Card that gave us VIP status to go to the front of lines and get into venues which helped greatly when there were long lines, like the Uffizi Gallery. the museum with ‘David’, etc. It had a chain with a plastic covered nice looking card.
Maybe those having tested positive to antibodies to Corona but exhibiting no symptoms should have a similar type of card. Those people would have VIP status to work or go anywhere.
“Maybe those having tested positive to antibodies to Corona but exhibiting no symptoms should have a similar type of card. Those people would have VIP status to work or go anywhere.”
“Mark of the Beast”, no thanks. That’s a slippery slop we should not start.
Thank you, Rodster, and I agree. Singapore had a similar scheme: tourists could obtain a special card than exempted them from sales tax, and many of the larger stores advertised on their doors that they accepted these cards. My observation (which won me few friends) was that a country that privileged its tourists above its citizens was already part of the Third World.
Singapore has no Nobel Prizes.
Denmark, about the same size has 14.
And don’t chew gum in Singapore, you might get jailed.
Singaporeans are very adept at thinking inside the box.
Fast Eddy, thank you for a most concise and pertinent observation. Please do more of the same! As for thinking “inside the box”, my last monograph on the failure of safety critical systems looked at Singapore’s MRT (“tube”) train collision. Computerisation gone mad. Later, I designed a low tech, analog alternative that needed no computers and no centralised control. It would work using chirp sonar, a technology perfected over 50 million years by our batty friends. They fly nose to tail and wingtip to wingtip, in three dimensions rather than one, and need no “bat traffic control” to fly safely. It seems evolution is, indeed, far cleverer than the Singapore land Transport Authority.
“At some point, we really need workers with antibodies against this virus working. But is there any way of getting to that point?”
Well obviously people need to be exposed to the virus to develop antibodies. The risk is minimal for those under 40. Social distancing for those under 40 works against antibodies being developed. If there was no social distancing for those under 40 perhaps we could get enough of population immune to function.
People need to take ownership of their bodies. If you want to feel good you need to take responsibility for the stewardship of your body. You eat healthy things. You exercise.
Instead of this we are going the other direction. I tend to like doctors. They are intelligent take good care of their bodies and are generally interesting. Some even have a desire to help people. They are not Harry potter. They cant “fix” your body with a wave of a wand. the philosophy that its the doctors and big pharmas job to maintain your body is delusional.
Yet this philosophy is widespread. People regard their own body like a computer they own. The geek fixes it. He talks a bunch of geekanese. Whatever. Just fix it.
We do not come to terms with our death. We live our lives like we live forever. Part of this is the illusion of control. The actions being taken are influenced by that illusion. OMG something is out of our control and it might kill us! Everything must come to a screeching halt until everything is under control. Safe. Last I checked we all die. Every single one of us will die. Yes it is sad. But life is a great joy. To give up the joy of life in order to try to chase the illusion of control is a sin. No you dont take unnecessary reckless risks. Part of the joy of life is respecting your life and body. You dont live your life in fear about things that are beyond your control either. Which is which? Thats common sense. Or it would seem the news tells you.
Maybe workers who can show they have the antibody get paid a premium!
Just guessing that a lot of meat packers smoke. Smokers should get paid less. Sorry thats not PC. Smoking is far harder to quit than heroin. How about this we give a 3x bonus to all non tobacco users, a 2x bonus to all smack users, and a 1x bonus to all smokers. Is that “fair”? If I was a employer i would pee test prior to hiring and test for nicotine along with the other illegal substances. When I see a attractive female nothing turns me off faster than a cigarette. EEEWWW
Hint:
1933 — Germany: Beloved & Respected Comrade Leader Adolf Hitler abolishes all labor unions.
Anyone have stats for meat packer infections and deaths re 2017/18 flu…
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm
It’s kinda how the Al Gore team says — WOW it was incredibly hot last summer in such and such a place… and provide it by showing temperature readings over the past 10 years…
They never show a longer term picture because inevitably there will be MUCH hotter periods and they often fall during the era when we burned FAR less fossil fuels.
This strategy is taught in PR 101…. ‘how to lie by cherry picking data’
I couldnt find 2017 flu deaths on the cdc website. One of the two nefarious doctors mentioned 30k to 60k flu deaths a year with 50k in 2017. So covid is more deadly than the flu. It may even end up being 2x as deadly as the flu. The flu doesnt have long term effects on the immune system and organs. Shi’s legacy is a nasty thing. Just not near as nasty as the fear mongers would have us believe.
This link says 38,230 deaths for 2016-2017. This link says 61,099 for 2017-2018.
So we are now already past those amounts for COVID-19 deaths.
But as Dr. Erickson pointed out in his video interview (he was the main speaker of the two Cali. docs), they were never incentivized previously to mark down flu deaths, whereas with Covid, they are.. plus it’s been reported hospitals are getting extra Covid-buck$ (important when they are disallowed from obtain income from non-emergency interventions). This really isn’t comparable to anything previous in terms of data-gathering, and I doubt it will ever truly be sorted out.
The good doc has got nothing but flack over his attempt to right many wrongs and try to help the re t ar d ed goy im….
He – and all the other doctors — should just keep quiet — keep marking Covid on the death certificates of skydivers who smashed into the ground but who had asymptomatic covid….
And collect the free money…
Why bother to
http://www.idioms4you.com/img/angif-rock-the-boat-def.gif
Data gathering and data crunching are really suspect. Death from all causes is the most likely accurate metric. The media talks about two metrics. Covid 19 cases and covid 19 deaths. The reason I am so skeptical is these two are never put in context. The case count is largely a function of testing because so many have been infected. A great question to put this metric in context would be how many have been infected based on the percentage of public tested. Thats the question Erickson asked and answered.
Instead the media portrayal is every positive test is a new infection that occurred – just now- to present a idea of a expanding crisis. The idea that every person who tests positive for the virus just got it the day or week before is not truthful. When they got it is crucial to understanding what the viruses status is. If you are presenting every positive test as brand new then the risk just starts then. If the infection occurred long before the risk is past. The real question that allows accurate analysis of the risk is when did the infection occur. Asking when would indicate responsible journalism without it reporting is suspect.
Another way accurate analysis could be presented is to present new cases side by side with new tests. That is not done. In fact until everyone is tested the outbreak can be represented as expanding even if those testing positive contracted it a long time ago.
The death count is suspect for many reasons. The comorbidity. The financial aspect. Even if you disregard those as not important the death count must be compared against normal death counts to give perspective. Usually we dont think about the usual 7000+ deaths that occur every day. When a large amount of deaths say 500 is mentioned it sure seems like a lot! Usually 7000 plus occur a day. Thats not mentioned in the media. Informing about normal death counts per day to give perspective would indicate responsible journalism without it reporting is suspect.
Many people dont believe in questioning the media. They feel confident in their trust that an accurate picture is being painted for them. They feel its the medias job to interpret and present that interpretation. Questioning that is like questioning any other trust met with skepticism and anger.
Default position of 99.9999% of humans is — once you accept that — you won’t be frustrated.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yKdcycwAXzg/VLVrlFy3w8I/AAAAAAABRLo/yr-2bpyLqR4/s1600/09-funny-gif-133-donkeys.gif
Yes for sure if we count all people who died from covid who actually died from various other diseases….
The wonderful thing about this is that Americans will be getting healthier — fewer dying from smoking related illnesses… diabetes numbers will be way down … all those things old farked people usually die up will be plummet
https://i1.wp.com/damnripped.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/00.jpg
The overall burden of influenza for the 2017-2018 season was an estimated 45 million influenza illnesses, 21 million influenza-associated medical visits, 810,000 influenza-related hospitalizations, and 61,000 influenza-associated deaths (Table: Estimated Influenza Disease Burden, by Season — United States, 2010-11 through 2017-18 Influenza Seasons).
yes, there is no good reason to disbelieve the official statistics…
was that flu “season” calculated as 120 or 150 days long?
the C19 “associated” deaths have surpassed that death number in the past 30 days…
I await your answer on how many days for that flu “season”…
thanks in advance…
This one is not trivial, substitution anyone?
“The agency cited difficulty maintaining social distancing and adhering to the heightened cleaning and disinfection guidance among the factors that increased risks for workers. There were 20 deaths among employees as the virus spread to 115 meat plants across 19 states, the CDC said in a report Friday, citing data covering April 9‒27”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-01/thousands-of-u-s-meat-workers-got-sick-with-deaths-reaching-20
Of course there are some problems, here goes the hedonic substitution of the economists and when there is substitution of non meat products for meat products it would not be that hard to imagine shortages of other foods.
So first we had a solution for climate issues, now we have a solution for cow farts and associated methane, kill all the cows. It would seem that the Green Deal may have been prescient. We will be healthy vegans peddling our bicycle generators to post on OFW. Those with solar can sell the popcorn – pays to plan ahead, film at eleven as they used to say.
All the worry was about parts for automobiles and long supply chains, the proximal issue is a relatively simple processing plant, within the continental US, without long shipping distances, with no shortage of supply, no shortage of demand, but a shortage of healthy workers for the meat plant.
Goes back to the farmer on YouTube at Walmart in wonder at people ignoring food and purchasing toilet paper. So as a means of exchange the question of the day, “How many rolls of toilet paper for a pound of ground round?”
Dennis L>
Iceagefarmer has a ton of material covering the food supply chain issues, highly recommend his work as a resource for those wanting to learn more….
it takes 30 grams of grain protein to produce one gram of meat protein. The grains used for meat production will provide 30x the protein. Theres a lot of grass fed beef where I live and thats a exception. You like your meat raise rabbits.
Have to post…Just when I thought the Fed and Uncle Sam ran out of games and tricks, silly me!
Dollar Diplomacy at its FINEST, better than a WIFE SWAP, Fast Eddy.😜
This is getting down and dirty, folks
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EWXPwG5gk_E&list=LL&index=2&t=1114s
Not really an investor, but this looks like a new Petro Dollar Scheme of some short….but already 15 countries signed up, more to come..Give me the Dollars!!!!
I am to sure I understand this entirely. My impression:
US is helping some countries but not others with “positive swap lines.” All countries likely to need US$, but negative swap line lines will have problem getting those $
Positive Swap Line – 15 countries allowed to convert local currency to US dollar. Half of a trillion dollars so far. Can use to help local companies. Examples: ECB, Japan
Negative Swap Lines – Other countries – These countries are likely to shut down mines and nationalize companies because sales prices of commodities is too low to pay back debt in US$. Use environmental excuse for shutting down. So there is a danger of loss of these mines to takeovers. This risk of takeover is not being priced into the prices of stocks.
The S&P 500 will crash next week?
Break…retest… rejection…and crash
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EXA8_DCX0AETIft?format=jpg&name=large
If so, then it will probably lead to a sell of in all asset classes as everyone seeks a safe haven in the dollar.
The recent run-up doesn’t really have much basis. It does look worrying!
Iwasaki says most of these myths are relatively innocuous but the danger is that falling for them will give you a false sense of security. One thing I do warn against is when people feel like they’re protected. They shouldn’t feel empowered to go out there and, you know, start having parties, she says.
Hi, Would like to introduce a friend of mine and he is not at ALL concerned about the unfolding crisis. As a matter of fact, he has a hearty appetite and enjoys the fresh air and sunshine with his significant other. Not too sure if he takes time to smell the flowers 😉? Some he may taste!
Everyone have a good day😜
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TrZLUelGsoc&t=2s
Love it! Reminds me of some humans I know!
No real statistics in the article, it appears to be from a site the “Progressive Secular Humanist.”
It is an interesting spiel don’t you think?
Dennis L.
Report: Bible Belt Christians Are Dying After Ignoring Social Distancing Guidelines
https://wp-media.patheos.com/blogs/sites/410/2020/04/BibleBeltCorona.png
Sad: After ignoring coronavirus social distancing guidelines, conservative Christians in the Bible Belt are dying in “frightening numbers.”
AlterNet reports:
Many Christian fundamentalists and evangelicals have been irresponsibly downplaying the dangers of COVID-19 and doing so with deadly results…
Evangelical fundamentalists who openly defied social distancing guidelines are dying of coronavirus in frightening numbers…
Not frightening whatsoever…a UK fearporn article.
It should be taken into account how unhealthy many of these people are , from how they eat. Lots of obesity….unfortunately.
A glance through the headlines of “the Friendly Atheist” will explain why:
https://friendlyatheist.patheos.com/
Hmm, I always look at the name, try and come up with what it means, etc.
“Bei Dawei is an assistant professor in the foreign language department of Hsuan Chuang University, Taiwan.”
Smart group here.
Dennis L.
They are strengthening the herd getting rid of the sick and weak. Making a might army of God. Ah diversity we hate it.
Not frightening at all. More U.K. fear pooo rn… what is frightening is the prevalence of obesity in the south. What is not said in the article is how many of these pastors were obese, had diabetes, or were aged, which many undoubtedly were.
Another thing that is frightening is that you posted this…..the only use for a post like this, is for ridicule.
But half the population of the U.S. fits into one or more of those categories.
https://cdn1.thr.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/landscape_928x523/2020/01/curb_your_enthusiasm_s10.jpg
Don’t click that link… no matter what you do do NOT click that link.
Well … if you have just scoffed down half a cake …. and are feeling guilty about that… then by all means click that link (but do NOT go back and eat the other half once we lift the guilt)
‘Frightening Numbers’
How many fat diabetes riddle hilll billleees have been classified falsely as death by covid?
Oooh….
https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1600/1*2GjzFv_bCZW7e8p1lBn2ng.png
BTW – the most disturbing thing those two doctors said in their presentation was that ER docs around the country were being forced/pressured to write covid on death certs… that’s likely why the presentation was flattened by Google.
And guess what – not a single doctor in America is going to make a peep about this.
And not a single reporter is going to contact ER doctors and survey them about this.
THAT is how you keep a secret a secret….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6y8dlhoMpo
Chris Martenson nails the virus as likely haven come from the Wuhan Lab. Go to 30:00 minutes of the video to get the bottom line or watch the whole thing. Also, Fauci gets implicated in earlier footage. If you’ve got some time watch the whole thing. It’s very good.
Chris Martenson is a little late to the party. That information was already out there once Wuhan, went into lockdown and all the fun began around the world. Although trying to take credit for something is good for business i.e. new member subscriptions.
Notice Martenson’s nice home in the videos he makes at home.
Brought to you buy the Renewable Energy sponsors of Peak Prosperity!
A theory put forward by French professor Luc Montagnier — award-winning co-discoverer of the AIDS virus but also mocked by some colleagues for some outrageous theories — has sparked a scientific firestorm.
According to the Nobel Prize winner in Medicine, a man used to controversy, the SARS-CoV-2 virus is the result of an attempt to manufacture a vaccine against the AIDS virus, Agence France Presse reported.
https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/french-prof-sparks-furor-with-lab-leak-theory/
So Fauci is the head of an organization that provided funding for the Wuhan Gain-of-Function research. In fact, that funding was not stopped untll April 24, 2020. That would seem to be a little problem!
Fauci son:
https://media.giphy.com/media/67SOpikwb5svEqopzh/giphy.gif
“Since the [UK] lockdown started, millions of workers have been furloughed or laid off by employers, and seen their pay fall as a result.
“Measures have been put in place to allow borrowers payment holidays and stall evictions, but the charity said that after these protections are lifted, millions face a “financial cliff edge”.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/01/long-lockdown-shrink-uk-economy-fifth-2020-study-coronavirus
“Britain’s economy will shrink by a fifth during 2020 if the continued presence of Covid-19 means a full lockdown has to remain in place for a year, according to a study.”
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/may/01/financial-covid-19-citizens-advice-bill-payments
^^^Got me links the wrong way round there. First link applies to second article and vice versa. I can’t imagine how they have come up with a 20% contraction for a year’s lockdown btw – something in excess of 50% would seem more logical to me, if not a total collapse of the economy.
“…it’s very apparent that the north of England is about to hit serious economic trouble…
“Naturally, very few parts of the UK will be spared serious damage. Yet, while the wealthier regions of London and much of the south could absorb the impact of another recession, there are a lot of indications that the north simply cannot go through that again.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/01/north-england-recession-coronavirus-financial-crash-economic
They are plucking figures out of the air.
20% for just a month or two sounds far more likely. A year will be impossible, and actually I suspect people will rebel, I can feel it building -sheer desperation to live normally. More and more breaking of the rules, just to have a chat mostly.
Maybe the kids will lead the rebellion?
Mother and children out for their 1 hour ‘permitted exercise’ (after truly horrendous screaming from baby heard as they approached:
Mother, (in an unconvinced and shaky voice): ‘Really, this walk’s going to be so, so cool, I promise!’
Kid (very sceptical voice): ‘Doesn’t sound like it! This walk is going to be NO FUN AT ALL’.
Exit, baby screaming head off…….
Thank God for my rural location, for all the good weather we’ve had and that my youngest is seven.
Trying to keep very young children amused through this must be hell, especially if you’re stuck in a city.
when i was about 7 or so, my father told my mother “we’re in the entertainment business”.
yeah so, but it only lasts for a brief time, based upon my experience.
Another month of this and mothers will gladly accept the free Fentanyl and shove a couple down the screaming child’s maw to shut it up … (permanently) before washing 4 down themselves with a tumbler of whisky.
Here’s an idea to make this kid friendly:
https://www.tintoyarcade.com/image/cache/data/product/Images_2601_2800/TTA2686-Mickie-Mouse-PEZ-01-1000×1000.jpg
EUROZONE COLLAPSE
“The V-Shaped Recovery Mirage Is Gone.”
Video.
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/eurozone-collapse-v-shaped-recovery-mirage-is-gone
“In simple terms, Spain admits it needs another bailout. ”
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/spain-seeks-another-bailout-as-deficit-skyrockets
“Europe will soon be confronted with a fundamental challenge: How will it prevent yet another Italian economic and sovereign debt crisis from causing the Euro to unravel?”
https://thebulwark.com/how-italy-could-crash-the-global-economy/
Yes and soon
Bone-Chilling WTF Charts of the Collapse in US Demand for Gasoline, Jet Fuel, and Diesel
Oil companies are reporting financial fiascos every day: Today Exxon reported its first quarterly loss since 1999 ($610 million), on a “market-related” $2.9 billion write-down. “We’ve never seen anything like what the world is facing today,” CEO Darren Woods said.
On Thursday, Texas-based shale-driller Concho Resources reported a quarterly loss of $9.3 billion, after writing down the value of its oil and gas assets by $12.6 billion.
Also on Thursday, it was reported that Oklahoma-based Chesapeake Energy, a pioneer in shale-drilling, was preparing to file for bankruptcy (what’s taking so long?).
Still on Thursday, Royal Dutch Shell shocked the markets when it announced that it would reduce its dividend for the first time since 1945 (by 66% from $0.47 to $0.16). “The duration of these impacts remains unclear with the expectation that the weaker conditions will likely extend beyond 2020,” the statement said. The already beaten-up shares plunged another 17% in two days. Shares are down 47% year to date.
https://wolfstreet.com/2020/05/01/the-bone-chilling-collapse-in-demand-for-gasoline-jet-fuel-and-diesel-in-the-us-in-charts/
“Global upheaval is likely to result from the oil price crash, upending the current fragile balance of power because key oil-producing countries, including Iraq and Nigeria, can’t buy their way out of this crisis with near-zero-interest loans like the Saudis and Americans can.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Oil-Nations-On-The-Brink-Of-Collapse.html
“Iraq’s revenues plummeted in April amid a historic oil price crash, the Oil Ministry said Friday, raising concerns over how the country will cope severe financial shortfalls while struggling to contain the coronavirus pandemic.”
https://aawsat.com/english/home/article/2262846/iraqs-revenues-plummet-raising-fears-economic-collapse
“Algerians are watching the collapse of oil prices with alarm as the energy markets on which the North African nation relies for most of its export revenues have been plunged into turmoil by the coronavirus crisis.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-algeria/weary-algerians-fear-fresh-economic-turmoil-as-oil-prices-dive-idUSKCN223218
“The crash in oil prices and the economic fallout from the coronavirus together pose what could be an existential threat for Africa’s largest economy [Nigeria] and biggest crude producer.
Read more at: https://www.vanguardngr.com/2020/05/oil-slump-coronavirus-create-a-perfect-storm-for-nigerias-economy/
All of these oil producers are going to have huge problems!
“The coronavirus pandemic is shutting the lights off for the global economy.
“The health crisis has morphed into economic catastrophe for Europe. The sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. shrank the most since the last recession and a gauge of factory output last month was the worst in the post-World War II era, data this week showed.”
Charts:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-01/charting-the-global-economy-contraction-becomes-common-theme
“Growth in emerging markets will not be enough to bail out the rest of the world as has happened during the global financial crisis…”
https://www.ftadviser.com/investments/2020/05/01/warning-world-can-t-rely-on-emerging-markets-to-bail-it-out/
It is becoming increasingly clear that the shutdowns are a catastrophe for the global economy.