Many people are concerned today with the low price of oil. Others are concerned about slowing or stopping COVID-19. Is there any way forward?
I gave a few hints regarding what is ahead in my last post, Economies won’t be able to recover after shutdowns. We live in a world with a self-organizing economy, made up of components such as businesses, customers, governments and interest rates. Our basic problem is a finite world problem. World population has outgrown its resource base.
Some sort of economy might work with the current resource base, but not the present economy. The COVID-19 crisis and the lockdowns used to try to contain the crisis push the economy farther along the route toward collapse. In this post, I suggest the possibility that some core parts of the world economy might temporarily be saved if they can be made to operate fairly independently of each other.
Let’s look at some parts of the problem:
[1] The world economy works like a pump.
To use a hand water pump, a person forces a lever down, and the desired output (water) appears. Human energy is required to power this pump. Other versions of water pumps use electricity, or burn gasoline or diesel. However the pump operates, there needs to be some form of energy input, for the desired output, water, to be produced.
An economy follows a similar pattern, except that the list of inputs and outputs is longer. With an economy, we need the following inputs, including energy inputs:
- Human energy
- Supplemental energy, such as burned biomass, animal power, electricity, and fossil fuel.
- Other resources, including fertile land, fresh water and raw materials of various kinds.
- Capital goods, built in previous cycles of the “pump.” These might include factories and machines to put into the factories.
- Structure and support provided by governments, including laws, roads and schools.
- Structure and support provided by business hierarchies and their innovations.
- A financial sector to provide a time-shifting function, so that goods and services with future value can be paid for (in actual physical output) over their expected lifetimes.
The output of the economy is goods and services, such as the following:
- Food and the ability to store and cook this food
- Other goods, such as homes, cars, trucks, televisions and diesel fuel
- Services such as education, healthcare and vacation travel
[2] Adequate growth in supplemental energy (such as fossil fuels) is important for keeping the economy operating properly.
The more human energy is applied to a manual water pump, the faster it can pump. The economy seems to work somewhat similarly.
If we look back historically, the world economy grew well when energy supplies were growing rapidly.
Figure 2. Average growth in energy consumption for 10 year periods, based on the estimates of Vaclav Smil from Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects (Appendix) together with BP Statistical Data for 1965 and subsequent.
Economic growth encompasses both population growth and rising standards of living. Figure 3 below takes the same information used in Figure 2 and divides it into (a) the portion underlying population growth, and (b) the portion of the energy supply growth available for improved standards of living.
Figure 3. Figure similar to Figure 2, except that energy devoted to population growth and growth in living standards are separated. An ellipse is added showing the recent growth in energy is primarily the result of China’s temporary growth in coal supplies.
Looking at Figure 3, we see that, historically, more than half of energy consumption growth has been associated with population growth. There is a reason for this connection: Food is an energy product for humans. Growing food requires a lot of energy, both energy from the sun and other energy. Today, a large share of this other energy is provided by diesel fuel, which is used to operate farm equipment and trucks.
Another thing we can see from Figure 3 is that peaks in living standards tend to go with good times for the economy; valleys tend to go with bad times. For example, the 1860 valley came just before the US Civil War. The 1930 valley came between World War I and World War II, at the time of the Great Depression. The 1991-2000 valley corresponds to the reduced energy consumption of many countries affiliated with the Soviet Union after its central government collapsed in 1991. All of these times of low energy growth were associated with low oil (and food) prices.
[3] Even before COVID-19 came along, the world’s economic pump was reaching limits. This can be seen in several different ways.
(a) China’s problems. China’s growth in coal production started lagging about 2012 (Figure 4). As long as its coal supply was growing rapidly (2002 to 2012), this rapidly growing source of inexpensive energy helped pull the world economy along.
Figure 4. China energy production by fuel, based on 2019 BP Statistical Review of World Energy data. “Other Ren” stands for “Renewables other than hydroelectric.” This category includes wind, solar, and other miscellaneous types, such as sawdust burned for electricity.
Once China needed to depend on importing more energy to keep its energy consumption growth, it began running into difficulties. China’s cement production started to fall in 2017. Effective January 1, 2018, China found it needed to shut down most of its recycling. Auto sales suddenly starting falling in 2018 as well, suggesting that the economy was not doing well.
(b) Too much world debt growth. It is possible to artificially raise economic growth by offering purchasers of goods and services debt that they cannot really afford to pay back, to use for the purchase of goods and services. Clearly, this was happening before the 2008-2009 recession, leading to debt defaults at that time. The rise in debt to GDP ratios since that time suggest that it is continuing to happen today. If the world economy stumbles, much debt is likely to become impossible to repay.
(c) The need to lower interest rates to keep the world economy growing. If the world economy is growing rapidly, as it was in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, the economy is able to grow in spite of increasing interest rates (Figure 5). After energy supply growth slowed about 1980 (Figure 2), interest rates have needed to fall (Figure 5) to hide the slowing energy consumption growth. In fact, interest rates are near zero now, similar to the way they were in the 1930s. Interest rates are now about as low as they can go, suggesting that the economy is reaching a limit.
Figure 5. 3-month and 10-year US Treasury rates. Graph provided FRED.
(d) Growing wage disparity. Increased technology is viewed positively, but if it leads to too much wage disparity, it can create huge problems by bringing the wages of non-elite workers below the level they need to support a reasonable lifestyle. Globalization adds to this problem. Income disparity is now at a peak, around the level of the late 1920s.
Figure 6. U. S. Income Shares of Top 1% and Top 0.1%, Wikipedia exhibit by Piketty and Saez.
(e) Excessively low commodity prices, even before COVID-19 problems. With the world’s wage disparity problem, many workers find themselves unable to afford homes, cars, and restaurant food. Their lack of purchasing power to buy these end products tends to keep commodity prices too low for producers to make an adequate profit. Oil prices were already too low for producers in 2019, before lockdowns associated with COVID-19 were added. Producers of oil will go out of business at this price. In fact, other commodity prices, including those of liquified natural gas, copper, and lithium are all too low for producers.
[4] The COVID-19 problem, and in fact epidemic problems in general, are not going away.
The publicity recently has been with respect to the COVID-19 virus and the need to “flatten the curve” of infected individuals, so that the health care system is not overwhelmed. The solutions offered revolve around social distancing. This includes reduced air travel and fewer large gatherings.
The problem with these solutions is that they make the world’s problems related to slow economic growth and too much debt a great deal worse. Growing businesses are built on economies of scale. Social distancing requirements lead to less efficient use of buildings and furnishings. For example, if a restaurant can only serve 25% as many customers as previously, its overhead quickly becomes too high, relative to the customers it can serve. It needs to lay off workers. Laid off workers add to the problem of low demand for goods like new homes, vehicles and gasoline. Indirectly, they push commodity prices of all kinds down, including oil prices.
If this were a two-week temporary problem, the situation might be tolerable, but the virus causing COVID-19 is not easily subdued. Many cases of COVID-19 seem to be infectious during their latency period. They may also be infectious after the illness seems to be over. Without an absurd amount of testing (plus much more accurate testing than seems to be really available), it is impossible to know whether a particular airline pilot for a plane bringing cargo is infectious. No one can tell whether a factory worker going back to work is really infectious, either. Citizens don’t understand the futility of trying to contain the virus; they expect that an ever-large share of our limited resources will be spent on beating back the virus.
To make matters worse, from what we know today, a person cannot count on life-long immunity after having the disease. A person who seems to be immune today, may not be immune next week or next year. Putting a badge on a person, showing that that person seems to be immune today, doesn’t tell you much about whether that person will be immune next week or next year. With all of these issues, it is pretty much impossible to get rid of COVID-19. We will likely need to learn to live with it, coming back year after year, perhaps in mutated form.
Even if we could somehow work around COVID-19’s problems, we can still expect to have other pandemic problems. The problem with epidemics has existed as long as humans have inhabited the earth. Antibiotics and other products of the fossil fuel age have allowed a temporary reprieve from some types of epidemics, but the overall problem has not disappeared. Our attention is toward COVID-19, but there are many other kinds of plant and animal epidemics we are facing. For example:
- Bananas are being attacked by a fungus in many parts of the world.
- African swine fever has killed tens of millions of pigs in China and elsewhere.
- Locusts are attacking crops in Africa.
- Human pathogens are constantly evolving, so that today’s antibiotics work much less well.
Even if COVID-19 does not do significant harm to the world economy, with all of the resource limits and economic problems we are encountering, certainly some future worldwide pandemic will.
[5] Historically, the way the world economy has been organized is as a large number of almost separate economies, each acting like a separate economic pump. Such an arrangement is much more stable than a single tightly networked world economy.
If a world economy is organized as a group of individual economies, with loose links to other economies, there are several advantages:
(a) Epidemics become less of a problem.
(b) Each economy has more control over its own future. It can create its own financial system if it desires. It can decide who owns what. It can decree that wages will be very equal, or not so equal.
(c) If population rises relative to resources in one economy, or if weather/climate takes a turn for the worse, that particular economy can collapse without the rest of the world’s economy collapsing. After a rest period, forests can regrow and soil fertility can improve, allowing a new start later.
(d) The world economy is in a sense much more stable, because it is not dependent upon “everything going correctly, everywhere.”
[6] The COVID-19 actions taken to date, together with the poor condition the economy was in previously, lead me to believe that the world economy is headed for a major reset.
Recently, we have experienced world leaders everywhere falling in line with the idea of shutting down major parts of their economies, to slow the spread of COVID-19. Citizens are worried about the illness and want to “do something.” In a way, however, the shutdowns make no sense at all:
(a) Potential for starvation. Any world leader should know that a large share of its population is living “on the edge.” People without savings cannot get along without income for for a long period, maybe not even a couple of weeks. Poor people are likely to be pushed toward starvation, unless somehow income to buy food is made available to these people. This is especially a problem for India and the poor countries of Africa. The loss of population in poor countries due to starvation is likely to be far higher than the 2% death rate expected from COVID-19.
(b) Potential for oil prices and other commodity prices to fall far too low for producers. With a large share of the world economy shut down, prices for many goods fall too low. As I am writing this, the WTI oil price is shown as $1.26 per barrel. Such a low price is simply absurd. It will cut off all production. If food cannot be sold in restaurants, its price may fall too low as well, causing producers to plow it under, rather than send it to market.
(c) Potential for huge debt defaults and huge loss of asset value. The financial system is built on promises. These promises can only be met if oil can continue to be pumped and goods made with fossil fuels can continue to be sold. Today’s economic system is threatening to fall apart. Even at this point in the epidemic, we are seeing a huge problem with oil prices. Other problems, such as problems with derivatives, are likely not far away.
The economy is a self-organizing system. If there really is the potential for some parts of the world economic system to be saved, while others are lost, I expect that the self-organizing nature of the system will work in this direction.
[7] A reset world economy will likely end up with “pieces” of today’s economy surviving, but within a very different framework.
There are clearly parts of the world economy that are not working:
- The financial system is way too large. There is too much debt, and asset prices are inflated based on very low interest rates.
- World population is way too high, relative to resources.
- Wage and wealth disparity is too great.
- Too much of income is going to the financial system, healthcare, education, entertainment, and travel.
- All of the connectivity of today’s world is leading to epidemics of many kinds traveling around the world.
Even with these problems, there may still be some core parts of the world economy that perhaps can be made to work. Each would have a smaller population than today. They would function much more independently than today, like mostly separate economic pumps. The nature of these economies will be different in different parts of the world.
In a less connected world, what we think of today as assets will likely have much less value. High rise buildings will be worth next to nothing, for example, because of their ability to transfer pathogens around. Public transportation will lose value for the same reason. Manufacturing that depends upon supply lines around the world will no longer work either. This means that manufacturing of computers, phones and today’s cars will likely no longer be possible. Products built locally will need to depend almost exclusively on local resources.
Pretty much everything that is debt today can be expected to default. Shares of stock will have little value. To try to save parts of the system, governments will need to take over assets that seem to have value such as farm land, mines, oil and gas wells, and electricity transmission lines. They will also likely need to take over banks, insurance companies and pension plans.
If oil products are available, governments may also need to make certain that farms, trucking companies and other essential users are able to get the fuel they need so that people can be fed. Water and sanitation are other systems that may need assistance so that they can continue to operate.
I expect that eventually, each separate economy will have its own currency. In nearly all cases, the currency will not be the same as today’s currency. The currency will be paid only to current workers in the economy, and it will only be usable for purchasing a limited range of goods made by the local economy.
[8] These are a few of my ideas regarding what might be ahead:
(a) There will be a shake-out of governmental organizations and intergovernmental organizations. Most intergovernmental organizations, such as the United Nations and European Union, will disappear. Many governments of countries may disappear, as well. Some may be overthrown. Others may collapse, in a manner similar to the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union in 1991. Governmental organizations take energy; if energy is scarce, they are dispensable.
(b) Some countries seem to have a sufficient range of resources that at least the core portion of them may be able to go forward, for a while, in a fairly modern state:
- United States
- Canada
- Russia
- China
- Iran
Big cities will likely become problematic in each of these locations, and populations will fall. Alaska and other very cold places may not be able to continue as part of the core, either.
(c) Countries, or even smaller units, will want to continue to limit trade and travel to other areas, for fear of contracting illnesses.
(d) Europe, especially, looks ripe for a big step back. Its fossil fuel resources tend to be depleted. There may be parts that can continue with the use of animal labor, if such animal labor can be found. Big protests and failing debt are likely by this summer in some areas, including Italy.
(e) Governments of the Middle Eastern countries and of Venezuela cannot continue long with very low oil prices. These countries are likely to see their governments overthrown, with a concurrent reduction in exports. Population will also fall, perhaps to the level before oil exploration.
(f) The making of physical goods will experience a major setback, starting immediately. Many supply chains are already broken. Medicines made in India and China are likely to start disappearing. Automobile manufacturing will depend on individual countries setting up their own manufacturing supply chains if the making of automobiles is to continue.
(g) The medical system will suffer a major setback from COVID-19 because no one will want to come to see their regular physician anymore, for fear of catching the disease. Education will likely become primarily the responsibility of families, with television or the internet perhaps providing some support. Universities will wither away. Music may continue, but drama (on television or elsewhere) will tend to disappear. Restaurants will never regain their popularity.
(h) It is possible that Quantitative Easing by many countries can temporarily prop up the prices of shares of stock and homes for several months, but eventually physical shortages of many goods can be expected. Food in particular is likely to be in short supply by spring a year from now. India and Africa may start seeing starvation much sooner, perhaps within weeks.
(i) History shows that when energy resources are not growing rapidly (see discussion of Figure 3), there tend to be wars and other conflicts. We should not be surprised if this happens again.
Conclusion
We seem to be reaching the limit of making our current global economic system work any longer. The only hope of partial salvation would seem to be if core parts of the world economy can be made to work in a more separate fashion for at least a few more years. In fact, oil and other fossil fuel production may continue, but for each country’s own use, with very limited trade.
There are likely to be big differences among economies around the world. For example, hunter-gathering may work for a few people, with the right skills, in some parts of the world. At the same time, more modern economies may exist elsewhere.
The new economy will have far fewer people and far less complexity. Each country can be expected to have its own currency, but this currency will likely be used only on a limited range of locally produced goods. Speculation in asset prices will no longer be a source of wealth.
It will be a very different world!
So how is this any different from the bushmeat that the Chinese are criticised for eating? Last year, the swine flu killed some 400 million pigs in China, a large reason why people there resorted to consuming more exotic species to supplement their diet.
“We’re All Born Hunters” – Americans Turn To Hunting Game Amid Pandemic Food Shortage Fears
https://toronto.citynews.ca/wp-content/blogs.dir/sites/10/2018/09/06/CPT170497092_hd.jpg
The slowdown or even the shuttering of meat processing plants due to coronavirus outbreaks has led to meat shortages and soaring food inflation. Supermarket chain Kroger reported Friday that it has put “purchase limits” on ground beef and fresh pork at some of its stores following growing concerns of food supply chain disruptions. We noted last month that meat shortages could be seen at grocery stores across the US in the first half of May. The pandemic and all its chaos have led some Americans to purchase a hunting rifle and venture into the wilderness to hunt big-game to put food on their tables.
Reuters interviews several Americans and reviews hunting license data on a state level to determine that a growing number of people are hunting food big-game to feed their families during the pandemic.
David Elliot, an emergency manager at Holy Cross Hospital in Taos, New Mexico, said the pandemic had given him the urge to fill his freezer with free-range, super-lean meat that he will obtain through hunting elk. He recently received his elk license and plans to borrow a horse and rifle, and roam the vast plains in Taos, searching for big-game…
Let them eat cake.
I expect that at least part of the reason for the popularity of guns is the feeling of control this gives with respect to the food situation, at least in the US West. There is also concern regarding bears and other wildlife attacking people who are out in wild areas, shooting game animals.
This is a map of 2015 gun ownerhip by state:
https://d36tnp772eyphs.cloudfront.net/blogs/1/2017/09/gun-ownership.jpg
I live rural. I am used to seeing the normal ebb and flo of deer as hunters push them out of the national forest on to private land. They are not stupid. If they are getting killed in one spot and not in another they stay were they are not getting killed. Deer population got out of hand for a bit. The state issued twice the amount of tags. Deer population was decimated. I went from seeing 30-40 deer on my property to not seeing a single deer for a couple years. Game will not last long if there is no regulation. Those that dont get killed will do just what they do during hunting season. Bed during the day and graze at night. I wouldnt count on making it off large game. Rabbits and squirels maybe. Heading out to the boonies long term based on your three days hunting with canned goods your RV and side bye when you dropped the deer straight in a freezer is not a viable plan yet thats many peoples plan as they pat their favorite firearm. Funny thing they might find the roads impassable. D9 cat.
My father was a general practitioner physician in Wisconsin when I grew up. There were lots of hunting accidents that he had to try to fix up. These took place both during “bow and arrow” season and normal firearms season. I can imagine this issue will happen again.
Hunters were required to wear red jackets, I believe. Not all males can see red distinctly. One of my sons, for example, is color blind. This makes it difficult to see other hunters, even when they try to wear a distinctive color.
lol yes
can never figure out why they colour things red for danger when 10% of men can’t pick it out from shades of green and brown
I’m one of them
Deer are pests in NZ – they have no predators (other than humans).
Yet I have NEVER seen a single wild deer in 5 years here. Not on the side of the road… not in the bush when I hike or bike. NEVER.
The reason for that I am told is that there is no hunting season in NZ – you can shoot them 365. So they stay away from humans.
In Canada/US when collapse hits… the deer will be so far into the bush and so few of them… hunters will burn more energy tracking and hauling out a kill… that they get from the kill.
There is a reason that pre hunting laws wild game was decimated in north america….
I think the Alaska 61.7% to be low. 🙂
wrong time of year. hunting season is in the fall, for a good reason.
https://youtu.be/mJmqssxtxe0
‘96% reduction in service’
Good! Everything is proceeding exactly as I have foreseen.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ENYFeAJXYAAkihV.jpg
Who are we kidding — she said we had to end our wicked ways and she threatened us — so the PTB reacted as one might to an evil troll… and they shut the machine down….
Unfortunately for Geeeetttaaaa normies who were once her FB friends will turn on her when they see the CONSEQUENCES of what she has done…. and I fear Geeeeter will end up like this :
https://nation.com.pk/digital_images/large/2018-09-15/body-of-girl-hanging-from-tree-found-1537034423-2074.jpg
How dare you!
no, a stake burning using lumps of coal and petroleum-based lighter fluid. fitting for female martyr.
But but but… that’s not renewable.
May I suggest tying the little demon girl to one of those solar towers so that she may bathe in the full light and power of the sun reflected from a million mirrors. That way she can see a million tiny copies of herself staring back at her as she turns nice and crispy. Just an idea.
Michael Moore nuked the renewable thing …. and then there has been info dripping out about how it’s not possible to recycle over 90% of all plastic.
And then Al Gore the guy behind the g w frawd… was exposed as a renewable energy frawd (and the two are directly linked)…
I’m thinking there are many greenies/normies on suwecide watch 🙂
This video about the airline industry cutbacks is disturbing. And what happens after September 30?
One person’s disturbing is Fast Eddy’s Exciting!!!
As I watched that I found myself feeling uplifted… I had a mental or ga sm when he mentioned the key Sanfran hub operating at less than 1% of normal…..
And then there is the issue of post September — can governments just prop this thing up indefinitely with more billions?
What about all the other industries that are dead — autos come to mind. Who will be buying a new car in the coming months….
Then there are all those people out of work who will collect welfare – pay no taxes and buy very little?
Covid is a poison pill for the global economy … once you swallow it there is no antidote.
And that’s the great thing about what’s happened. There is no fixing it. Even if the PTB had a change of mind — they have bashed BAU’s brains in
https://lifeasadigitalsalad.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/tee-hee.gif
No need for a face shield – I doubt anyone is going to be coughing in your face — they’d be beaten to death…..
A cloth face mask prevents droplets from getting onto surfaces – and it prevents you from touching your face – these can be washed and reused.
So if you do not want to catch the flu, then I highly recommend a cloth mask – and so does the cdc
But Ardern doesn’t
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cloth-face-cover-faq.html
Let’s revisit the English mass murder:
Meet India’s Colonial Terrorists who looted and killed Indians without mercy
https://navrangindia.blogspot.com/2018/07/meet-indias-colonial-terrorists-who.html
Tell us how awesome he was Normie… how about a few quotes?
While you are at it can you grab a few of Hitler’s best comments?
You can’t make an omelette without breaking eggs. You don’t gain and run an empire by being nice to people, you snowflake. And at least we stopped the Indians killing each other while we were there – look what happened as soon as we left. And it’s happening again, LOL.
In fact, the Brits who ran India were disproportionately Scots.
Breaking eggs… hmmm… starving 10M Indians to death … interesting metaphor
They say Adolph broke a few eggs in pursuit of empire — 6M J ews is the estimate.
Stalin is still the king egg breaker — 20M starved and beaten to death… something like that
Breaking Egg – synonym – War Crime, Crime Against Humanity.
Technically Winston was not at war with India so let’s go with Crime Against Humanity… so he’s more Stalin that Hitler…
Although Hitler never declared war against the Jews because they were not a country … so maybe Winston is more Hitler than Stalin … because Stalin committed these crimes against people living within the Soviet empire… whereas Hitler murdered J ews both inside Germany and in occupied countries….
It’s all quite confusing — would occupied countries be considered the same as soviet satellite countries? The satellite countries would surely believe they were occupied…
What do you think Normies??????
Would you like another shot at this — or are you satisfied that you have been ground into a fine pulp and flushed down the toilet enough times for one day?
The Irish were over represented as well, both in the military and the civil service, despite what you may have been told about the supposed Irish attitude to the British empire.
Empire paid, and people always follow the money.
To a large degree, the aggressive English empire made the former wealth of Scotland.
“Half the world hates us. And half the world is civilized only because we have made it so.”
They don’t make movies like that any more. They wouldn’t dare.
https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51Y5D8MTJJL._SY445_.jpg
I guess the moral of the story is:
a few thousand die from virus in UK now – bad
a few million murdered by us – who cares
The latter was in the past admittedly, but some of it within living memory. I knew our shenanigans in India were bad, but not this bad. And I don’t remember being taught anything about this at school, or anywhere else. All in the name of Empire, or rather, the accumulation of wealth for the mighty. Still goes on today of course, slightly different methods.
I raise the point only because Norm the Normie idolizes Winston the War Criminal.
Tell us about what you’ve done to aotearoa and the Maori, Ed.
Nothing… actually… I certainly have not starved anyone to death.
BTW I was not born in NZ…. I’ve only been here for 5 years.
Let’s talk about how Winston murdered upwards of 10M ‘dirty’ Indians.
Or shall we discuss Hitler and Stalin?
Pol Pot is always interesting.
Did you know Winston was captured in the Boer War and was lucky to escape with his life?
It’s like one of those things.. if you could have killed Adolph before he got underway would you have? I most definitely would have put a bullet between Winston’s eyes if given that opportunity.
He was a fat, fame-seeking, pompous mass-murderer.
And Norm idolizes him 🙂
Hello!
https://twitter.com/businessinsider/status/1257367859182911491
if this kind of story spreads (like a virus) then there likely will be another wave of panic buying…
it’s getting serious when the panic buying isn’t to accumulate 100 rolls of TP, but to buy basic food…
how many waves of panic buying are coming soon?
High fashion in Manhattan
https://www.virology.ws/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/656F2696-DC20-4B6F-8D04-8AC45322A5EF.jpg
The video attached is short, shows the aircraft of American at Pittsburgh airport, never to fly again, 39,000 employees dismissed, furloughed or whatever.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tF1ZIPvFvok
Something will come after this, hopefully not too bad, I am starting to have my doubts; this mess is pretty tough to put back together.
Dennis L.
Title says “heartbreaking view of … ”
It doesn’t breat my heart 🙂
It makes me happy because it means extinction of the Vile Species… is near
State Governors and politicians in general just think you can flip a switch on the eCONomy but you can’t. It’s not like turning off and on the lights in your house. That’s not how eCONomies work. The global eCONomy is like steering a large cargo ship. Every turn and decision on where that ship is going to go, needs to be planned out 2-3 miles in advance.
Instead, politicians made a mess of things, now within a few short weeks millions are out of work and businesses large and small might never open their doors. And why should they? There’s absolutely NO assurances from those who made all these awful decisions that they won’t shut things down all over again.
We are entering the Greatest Depression ever and that usually precludes a giant size war.
did you mean “precedes” rather than “precludes”?
I think that Rodster meant “precedes.”
“State Governors and politicians in general just think you can flip a switch on the eCONomy but you can’t.”
yes, surely most/all of them are not systems thinkers…
it’s sort of a herd stooooopidity, though we could suspect that they mean well because they are trying to save the lives of lots of those older people who are the majority of voters…
Another potential step toward a solution–not really tested yet, however:
Universal Face Shields for COVID-19: The New and Improved Mask?
https://clf1.medpagetoday.com/media/images/86xxx/86273.jpg
No French-kissing in one of those, so a great moral improvement, too!
I think the future world is shaping up quite nicely. It needs to be an i-shield, so that you can imbibe propaganda and cute baby bat videos all day long. Get Elon onto it.
Masks and whips used to mean fun: now the mask means fear, and the whip will be to keep people back at a safe distance…..
Italia market sell of cars . Minus 97.5 per cent in April
About as close to zero cars sold as is possible!
https://www.ansa.it/canale_motori/notizie/industria/2020/05/04/auto-975-vendite-in-italia-a-maggio_81ab92ac-4da2-4881-bfd0-78ddef9c1956.html. Only 4300 cars solded
This is SO GOOD!
I suspect there are massive unacknowledged bailouts happening — otherwise every auto company on the planet would have ditched most of their workers by now.
Anyone thinking of buying another car anytime soon??? Keep in mind auto sales were tumbling for months before Covid.
If NZ goes to L2 next week I will buy nothing but absolute essentials.
I want to do my part in forcing extinction down the normies throats. I want them eliminated. Every last one of them. It’s the only way I can escape their bleating about G W… renewable energy… and all that jazz.
Some nerd with a spread sheet said “Hey, look my spread sheet says millions will die. Therefore you the whole world are now under house arrest.” How did 1000 years of English Common Laws get thrown out the window? How did the freedom fought and died for by millions get thrown in the garbage can? What new insanity will nerds with spread sheets force on us in the coming decades? Will there ever be push back?
We had too much Freedom. We was in overshoot in Freedom too. Freedom Need cheap oil. And now we pay difference in debit as Venezuela pay cheap gasoline and no investiment. In My Stupid Opinion
Marco, sadly, I feel there is much truth in what you say.
Think about all the rights of minorities. Womens. Handicap. People ill
Of someone at the WHO created models with the intention of justifying global lockdowns to kick of the CDP.
The freedoms our ancestors fought and died for were bargained away over the years for security, comfort and convenience. In exchange we accepted the three dumbs—dumb before meals, dumb after meals, and dumb between meals—which were steadily injected into our psyches, primarily via the medium of television.
https://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/images/5bexb2f_1141.png
Looks like somebody got their sums wrong:
Nightingale Hospital in London placed on standby
A spokesperson for the hospital previously said it would be a “mark of success” if the hospital did not operate at full capacity.
If a new hospital with 4000 beds treating 51 patients in 3 weeks counts as a success story then I think the bar for success is set a little too low.
At least I linked to a different news organisation (cf Malcopian’s post above).
i think it was called ‘worst case scenario’
it wasn’t possible to forecast with any certainty whether the hospital would be wanted or not.
maybe lockdown stopped it—certainly seems possible
if the beds had been needed, and they weren’t ready—then all hell would have broken loose about that too.
I agree with what you write, but still think there was a massive over-reaction.
If sars-cov-2 is so contagious that even in the open air we must maintain 2m distance from others, and if 2000 people were arriving in the UK from Wuhan every day in December, it’s impossible the virus wasn’t already circulating widely in the UK in January.
When the lockdown ends, there won’t be a second wave. That’s my prediction. We shall see soon enough.
nobody knows, you could be right
all this is new, govt’s are floundering just as much as you and i
I think Will be second wave After 4 weeks
Governments will loosen — infections will rise — they’ll relock.
And there will be minimal opposition to that
Already happening — see Hokkaido.
Speak for yourself Norman. I’m not floundering.
Interesting that you are an apologist for all things gov….including the Covid fraud and mismanagement.
not apologising for anyone—we get the government we deserve
if by some chance, you got exactly the govt you thought you wanted/deserved. ten million other people would be screaming hoax or fraud or something
governments in the broad sense can do very little, they do as we do : they get swept along on the tide of available energy. That is the exact measure of government power
If theres plenty to go around, they try to take credit for it.
If its scarce, they try to shift the blame on somebody else, or more likely try to steal it from somebody else (they call that war or ‘free trade’ btw)
‘Plenty to go around’ has been western industrial society since 1945. Now that time of ‘surplus’ is over, and our elected ones are rushing around trying to blame everything and everyone. All are in denial—including those who scream fraud and hoax—”if something doesn’t dovetail into my belief system, it must be a fraud/hoax”—that nonsense is literally everywhere.
the only fraud is perpetrated by ourselves, on ourselves, for refusing to recognise the mess we are in, and insisting it must be ‘somebody else’s fault’ (not our own of course).
COVID is not a separate entity–it arose from a grasping economic system that was using every animal species as a source of protein, under the insane illusion that the world is the private property of humankind. (the 1918 epidemic had the same root cause)
Plagues arise in dense overcrowding. That is only possible through surplus of energy. They then spread outward.
It’s actually a version of the flu… not The Plague.
Unless you are referring to the economic plague that the lockdowns have caused. And the famines that are imminent.
I can’t wait for the famines. So I can ram that down the throats of the Normies who support the lockdowns.
I am in contact with one of the chief architects of the NZ lockdowns – and have already let him know that he’s about to take the pedestal alongside Ardern, Fauci, Pol Pot, Stalin and a few others…. he’ll get a gentle reminder when we see the first million die….
He’s a total Normie so no doubt thinks these assertions are ridiculous. Of course he does.
Oh and let’s not forget your mate Churchill, Normie — he is a mass murderer extraordinaire!
I bet he’s in hell right now with Adolph having an argument – ‘I killed more! No I did. Well I caused more to suffer. No I did. Then Stalin shouts – 20 Million! 20 MILLION!!!! Pol Pot chimes in sheepishly… I finished off 2M… ‘
https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1p413TQr_RY/W1AjtKtF4dI/AAAAAAAAcSU/7pPVZQDGbSkKvkcw6iK0f_bpCqDrkHsKwCLcBGAs/s1600/images.jpg
Winston was a filthy pig… a vile fat pig of a man
http://krapps.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/LadyHuhFINAL.jpg
came across a problem recently Eddy, and it occurred to me that you might not have heard about it. I did some research and found it has affected quite a few people.
All to do with job sharing apparently
It seems that people carrying out IQ tests have been found to be doing decibel tests part time. (or the other way round–I forget which.)
The equipment used to determine IQ and noise look very similar, (as one might imagine)
Anyway, it seems some of these guys have been getting very careless (doing 2 jobs can be very tiring) and mixing up the equipment.
As you can imagine, when someone comes in for a IQ test, and the tester uses equipment for measuring decibels, you might get some very peculiar readings, (unusually high) or a tester goes into a factory to test for noise using IQ kit, that might give odd results too. (unusually low)
Not saying for one moment this has happened to you of course—but you never know.
Might be worth checking it out. Your 700 IQ, might in fact be a reading from a noise meter
Thank you very much for your point of view i Hope you continue to write more and more … end more )))
lol—thank you
right now I am trying to find a softer wall to bang my head against
I don’t want to overdramatize, but the view from my corner is that this mess is shaping up into yet another killing spree of genocidal proportions as millions of people are led softly softly into a situation in which they have little recourse but to starve or try to migrate.
For the first time, I’m seriously doubting whether there will be enough Thanksgiving turkeys to go round in the US this year.
Just waiting for the biblical famine to start….
https://www.beon.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/we-are-the-world.gif
‘killing spree’ suggests the likes of pol pot or someone
mass death has a quite different connotation
the end result might well be the same number of bodies, but the pre-intent i think is very different.
if that happens, i do not doubt that if there are any survivors, they will look back and blame the politicians/generals who were running things at the time and say it was a plot or conspiracy to do that.
but that can be shown to be a nonsense, because if humankind reduces to pre-industrial levels, the so called ‘plotters’ will be equally reduced to a primitive existence. 7.5 bn people can keep the lights on and the hospitals/food factories running. 1 Bn can’t. That is just basic logistics.
If 1 thousand people try to exist in a walled compound, they will need armed guards. Sooner or later those guards will eat them.
(Basic economic survival)
1 billion people cannot support an infrastructure that allows executive jets, and suchlike. They cannot exist.
Humankind is following a herd instinct towards mass culling. No one is ‘running a conspiracy’ to bring it about.
London NHS Nightingale hospital is placed on standby.
No 10 says decision is due to limited demand, with no coronavirus admissions expected in coming days
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/london-nhs-nightingale-hospital-placed-on-standby
Yea! Let’s hurry up and get this ridiculously unnecessary lockdown over with.
A sassy song to celebrate.
In Russia as in Italia. My Friends not have Money for buy food .but supermarket are full
only one conclusion to that:
full supermarkets get looted by hungry people
but after that the supermarkets do not get refilled
so people get hungry again
that’s when things get really nasty
Really true!!
This is an article regarding a specific meat processing plant with reported infection of 18% among workers. If this is accurate and the plant reopens what happens to the meat? Meat is stored cold, does the virus travel with the meat?
“The Smithfield slaughter plant in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, has been tied to 853 infections among 3,100 workers, said the Argus Leader newspaper. In a statement listing coronavirus precautions at its facilities, Smithfield said, “The company and its team members all want the same thing, namely, to protect employee health and safety while also safeguarding America’s food supply.” Workers and family members protested outside a Smithfield plant in Crete, Nebraska, over the weekend with signs that included “PPE for all,” reported.”
https://www.agriculture.com/news/business/as-meat-plants-reopen-iowa-south-dakota-pennsylvania-and-nebraska-are-coronavirus?did=520226-20200504&utm_campaign=todays-news_newsletter&utm_source=agriculture.com&utm_medium=email&utm_content=050420&cid=520226&mid=33261238862
Dennis L.
I would presume cooking would kill the virus, if there virus landed on the meat.
We know that there is a problem with chicken harboring bacteria which are antibiotic resistant and cause Urinary Tract Infections in humans. Cooking destroys these bacteria, but those preparing chicken need to be careful to wash their hands carefully after handling it. I would imagine those packaging chickens for sale might be at risk as well.
Maybe we need to follow the same approach for all meat. Assume that there are some sort of bacteria or viruses that can infect humans associated with them. Be careful about handling them and be sure to wash your hands well after handling them.
If it’s now. If it happens we had to fall down the cliff from now, the Coronavirus is a very convenient scapegoat, The common alien Enemy that stood against us. Not the limits of our resources, nor our intelligence or technology, not our inability to change our purposes or beliefs or our non questionable ways of life. Not the greed of the richest, not the failures of our leaders. Very convenient indeed. A common alien enemy is exactly what we need for when it all falls down. Then it’s a good for a bad.
I’m not in conspiracies theories, it’s just the thoughts that went through my mind.
Good points! Every leader needs a convenient scapegoat.
Is there a way toward!? Ah, so sorry, only looking backwards
When the despair of no longer having a job or health insurance meets those at the bottom of the economic scale who’ve run out of savings and necessities, it’ll be Katy Bar The Door!
The coronavirus hasn’t done anything to the economy, it’s politicians furthering their relentless power and money grabs. And the media, has only added gas to the fire!
It would have been more constructive for the entire world if we’d have treated this coronavirus as a real war and never rung the panic bell. The President could have gone on the air and told America: “This flu season, we are facing an additional flu strain that is particularly lethal via our respiratory systems. Our annual flu fatalities will increase because we are so unprepared, but we must go on, using practical flu transmission countermeasures, and produce the necessary medical equipment along with what we normally do as a nation everyday! The medical and scientific communities will be our armies in this war, and we WILL prevail!”
That scenario, however, would have required a leader with insight, leadership, and courage …. something this nation lacks on BOTH sides of the aisle!
Every year, between 250,000 and 500.000 deaths globally occur owing to the flu. Are those deaths not occurring this year? Of course they are but, unless it’s an accidental death, suicide, etc, and per CDC guidelines, all flu related deaths are to be attributed to Covid-19, irrespective of comorbidities. Absurd! If one gets this virus, there’s a better than 96% chance of survival with light to moderate symptoms (per the CDC, not me). If one is under 65, and not medically compromised in any way, the odds are better than 96%, as that 96% survival rate INCLUDES people who are medically compromised and over 65. So, the choice was: Stay home, race though ones savings and file bankruptcy, or get back to work, using common sense health and hygiene practices, and take ones chances with a 96%+ survival rate illness! The world made a bad choice!
Your reasoning cannot be faulted
unfortunately humankind doesn’t think that way, If 3 in every hundred die, thats a lot of bodies piling up—and someone being blamed for the death of grandad—your grandad—my grandad—me!!!
idiotic yes—but that’s the herd instinct for you
If you apply it to air travel—and say : 96% of passengers survive—what are you worrying about? No one would get on a plane.
We never think about how few people, relative to total population, are expected to die in a particular week. It doesn’t take very many extra deaths, relative to the population, to overwhelm the system.
’96 of 100 people have minimal or no symptoms when they contract covid. 90% of the 4 who are hospitalized will recover’
https://youtu.be/lJegzdhQjdI
Is Sweden overwhelmed? Is Bali overwhelmed? Any third world countries overwhelmed?
2017 they were https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patients/
And how odd… Covid did not overwhelm all of China … apparently only Hubei and particularly Wuhan were hit hard… so we are told.
The rest of China did not lockdown. And all it takes is one infected person to start a fire… millions would have been on the move out of Hubei during the chinese new year
Overwhelmed… I am not
This Time magazine article is from 2018. It indicates that at that time, the medical care system was overwhelmed by the larger than normal number of flu deaths. This was not a huge increase:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm
Total US Flus 2017-2018 44.8 million illnesses; 808,000 hospitalizations; 61,099 deaths
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2016-2017.html
Total US Flus 2016-2017 29.2 million illnesses; 497,000 hospitalizations; 38,230 deaths
Given that the hospitals were overwhelmed with and extra 300,000 or so hospitalizations and an extra 23,000 deaths, it is easy to see why medical people would be concerned about COVID-19.
Regarding whether the medical system in Sweden is overwhelmed, this is an article I ran across, Are Stockholm’s Hospitals About to Break? The issue isn’t a lack of beds, per se. (It isn’t in New York, either.) It is easy to put beds into auditoriums and into tents. The problem is finding enough trained health care providers (not a psychiatric resident, with no experience in this kind of thing). Health care providers can’t stand endless days of 12 hour shifts. Another continuing problem is lack of masks and other protective gear for the health care providers.
US was overwhelmed… the planes continue to fly though
Totally agreed, Herbie. You are very bright for a Volkswagen Beetle.
It would have been more constructive for the entire world if we’d have treated this coronavirus as a real war and never rung the panic bell.
Ah, panic! Where have we heard that word recently?
https://lybio.net/wp-content/uploads/Greta-Thunberg-I-Want-You-To-Panic.jpg
https://image.slidesharecdn.com/ackermanbale9282-141007083021-conversion-gate01/95/weapon-of-mass-destruction-4-638.jpg
Comic books.
Takes me back to my youth, and helped me to learn to read. Some were even educational, like classic comics which summarized historical or religious events. Then there was the DC Comics group featuring Superman, Batman, Flash Another group featured Archie, Jughead and his gang. Then there was a frontier type featuring Tomahawk, Cannonball, Frenchie and the settlers of America. But by far my favorite was Marvel. Stan Lee was a genius. Too bad he got ripped off by Disneyword or whoever paid him peanuts for his franchise. Spiderman, Daredevil, Thor, Fantastic Four, The Incredible Hulk, Iron man, Captain America. They inspired youth. Honesty. Decency. A fight against evil. Causes worth fighting for. Now, Captain Safe Space?
Indeed, “where have you gone Joe DiMaggio? A nation turns it’s lonely eyes to you.”
or the more appropriate line for today “Going to the candidates’ debate, laugh about it, shout about it, when you’ve got to chose, every way you look at it you lose.”
Ah, comics. My boarding school bought comics for us to read. The one they approved was the ‘Eagle’, which came out on Wednesdays. It features Dan Dare, pilot of the spaceways, his loyal batman Digby, and the evil Mekon, who wanted to take over the solar system.
I think we were supposed to identify with and emulate Dan Dare, who was clearly modelled after the RAF pilots of WWII. But I was a weedy kid, bad at sports, and scorned by the more athletic boys. I wanted to be the Mekon. “Welcome to the disintegration chamber, Dan Dare” Or in my case, Nigel Starmer Smith. O rimembranza!
DC and Archie are still around, and have been reimagined for newer generations (as they always are). Westerns, not so much, although there are a few indie series. Although superheroes have always dominated the US industry, and other genres mostly disappeared by the 1980s, some of them came back. Movie tie-ins often sell very well, for example, and there are a number of highbrow literary comics (think “Maus”) or nonfiction memoir. Here’s a bit of hard-hitting, super depressing comic-book journalism about the general situation in Kushinagar, the town in northern India where the Buddha died:
https://www.nybooks.com/daily/2012/05/19/joe-sacco-kushinagar/
Stan Lee was never Marvel’s owner, he was always a combination of company man and carnival barker. A lot of the creative work came from artists like Jack Kirby. (If anybody got ripped off, it was them.) Marvel has had several different parent companies before Disney, which bought it for four billion USD (about the same they paid for Star Wars). At one point in the 1990s, they almost went bankrupt. Besides distribution, another major issue has been the rising cost of printing. When I was a kid, comics cost a quarter and you could buy them at 7-11. Now they’re several dollars and have to be bought at special shops. (Archie is the exception due to the different sizes of its comics.) Kids hardly ever get into the habit of reading comics–for the last few decades they’ve been playing electronic games instead, and know Spider-Man etc. only through the movies and TV.
I always saw comics as story boarding for the final product in the form of live action in movies and tv shows. For example The Walking Dead comic book by Kirkman was very acurately transformed into the popular tv show. There’s so much more to the experience when performance, music, cinematography, costumes, effects, are taken into account.
Disney did a good job with the Avengers movies etc. but totally ruined the legacy of Star Wars. It all depends on the team involved. Unfortunately SJW politics has infected pretty much all entertainment products to the point of ridicule.
This policy has also infected genre fiction writing where many titles won’t be published unless the main protagonist is a black lesbian hunchback… every single time!
Because of this inhuman transgender agenda I advocate that content creators upload all their unadulterated material to their own platforms. To be fair, they should have ditched their agents and the main publishing houses long ago if they had any sense. They should have seen the writing on the wall and set themselves free.
The latest title – which FE would love – to suffer this shameful treatment is The Last Of Us Part Two which of course once again portrays christians in a bad light and has a transgender killing off the previously well loved protagonists. Spoilers be darned since it’s all over the web.
For those that don’t care about such things remember that they are multi-billion dollar enterprises and therefore formed part of the propping up of the illusion of BAU. So from that perspective just another cog in the One Machine starting to fall off before it all grinds to a halt.
https://theautomaticearth.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/NeverSetItTo2020.jpg
Any comics fans out there? For those who are not aware, the major US comics publishers–DC (Superman, Batman, Wonder Woman), Marvel (Spider-Man, the Avengers, the X-Men), and Image (uh, Bloodshot?)–used to all be distributed through a single company, Diamond, which would deliver the comics from the publisher to various local comic shops. Diamond was never very well run, and may now be on the verge of bankruptcy. They stopped delivering comics in early April, but will apparently start again in late May. A number of local comic shops are likely to close shop. (The economics behind them was never very good anyway.) While comics are also sold digitally, the remaining local comic shops would suffer if fans could buy digital copies before the physical issues were available, so the comics publishers avoid doing this.
The result is that there will be at least a month and a half before a limited number of comics have new issues available for sale. A large number have been cancelled or postponed, and the creative teams have been told to “lay down their pencils.” It may nor may not be relevant that some fans have complained of what they see as an SJW agenda on the part of the publishers, which has resulted in such new characters as the superheroes Snowflake and Safespace (not a joke). Anyway, it is conceivable that all this may signal the end of comic books as we know them (a century-old tradition), although surely many of them will be made available in some form (digital or TPB). Comics don’t earn a lot of money for their companies, but are most lucrative as a source of properties that can be adapted into films and such.
Interesting! Another example of things that were doing poorly, do even worse, now.
Yeah I’ve been tracking such things for a while. Everything entertainment in fact.
Any such industry that hasn’t become fully digital by now and makes decent money from that alone was doomed to perish anyway. Sure some still prefer to read a paperback but from a sales perspective digital is where you make your money.
I have been suggesting to others in such industries that they need to takes things further and create their own platforms with monetisation built in. Anyone can create their own comic and publish digitally on their own website either behind a paywall – which I detest – or supplemented by donations and merchandise.
Everything from movies, tv shows, games, books, comics has gone digital with direct downloads to comsumer’s devices. I would not bother catering to the odd customer that longs for some previous unsustainable method of delivery.
When things change, change with them or get left behind. Look at what happened to Kodak back in the day.
The problems we face now – brown outs, hack attacks, sabotage – greatly affect our ability to maintain those services online so it will be a challenge going forward.
Great video from Project Veritas!
In late April, a Project Veritas reporter spoke with Michael Lanza, the director of Staten
Island’s Colonial Funeral Home.
“To be honest with you, all of the death certificates are writing COVID on it, they’re writing
COVID on all the death certificates,” Lanza said.
Lanza said DeBlasio might see inflated COVID death tallies as a way to bring more money to New York City. “Whether they had a positive test or didn’t, so I think again this is my
personal opinion, I think like the mayor and our city–they’re looking for federal funding and the more they put COVID on the death certificate the more they can ask from the federal funds.”
The Staten Island funeral director said it did not add up to him.
“I think it’s political, so, I’m going to turn around and say: ‘You know, like, not everybody
that we have here that has COVID on the death certificate died of COVID.’ Can I prove that? No, but that is my suspicion.”
Josephine DiMiceli, president of the DiMiceli and Sons, a Queens-based funeral service told a Project Veritas journalist that a Supreme Court justice got involved in one case of a non-COVID-19 death that was listed as a casualty of the pandemic.
The sister of a deceased woman called DiMiceli and told her late sister suffered with
Alzheimer’s Disease and was not treated for COVID-19, she said.
“The sister refused to believe that her sister had COVID-19 and like I said, she was the one that said to me she says well my cousin is you know, Chief Justice of the Supreme Court,” DiMiceli said. “We’re gonna get an autopsy,’ and I said do what you gotta do, you know and she did what she had to do and sure enough I called her and I said to her that the doctor signed the death certificate did the autopsy – no COVID-19.”
DiMiceli said to the journalist that she was curious about who the justice was, but she was too busy and too sensitive to a grieving relative to ask for the name. “I wanted to ask
her, but I was like you know what, I’m so busy I just can’t, you know I mean like you can’t ask.”
Joseph Antioco, the director of Brooklyn’s Schaeffer Funeral Home, told another undercover journalist if the deceased was not under the care of a private physician, the
chances were very good their cause of death was going down as COVID-19.
“Two weeks ago, I had a 40-year-old man that died in his house, okay? They didn’t even go to the house, the guy had no underlying causes, no medical conditions, they released
him from the house without even going saying he had COVID-19 because he had a fever,” he said.
“But now, how do you know that’s what he had? You don’t. But, now the death certificate showed shows that he had COVID-19,” he said.
“If you don’t have a private doctor and you weren’t under any medical care, they’re automatically putting down on the death certificate COVID-19, because they don’t wanna go–they’re so overwhelmed,” Antioco said. “They’re putting everything as COVID-19, so
they’re padding the numbers.”
The Brooklyn funeral director said one reason the COVID-19 numbers are inflated is that personnel in the coroner’s office cannot keep up.
“They’re not going out to houses anymore,” he said. “They would go out to the house, they would investigate the scene, they would do some testing at the scene and then come up
with a conclusion as to: ‘He had heart disease.’”
https://www.projectveritas.com/news/breaking-funeral-directors-in-covid-19-epicenter-doubt-legitimacy-of-deaths/
I think at looking at actual deaths compared to expected deaths is the only way to get a reasonable estimate of the impact of COVID-19.
Even at that, there will be deaths caused by people who failed to go to the emergency room, when they were dying of something curable, which a trip to the ER would have fixed. These are more “fear of COVID-19 deaths.”
I agree…
now that we are seeing good data on actual deaths being much higher than expected deaths in many regions where the virus surged…
so far, NO ONE has been able to explain the rise of actual deaths above expected deaths which are based on previous years….
other than that is was caused by C19 related deaths…
this is called science…
good data?
I beg to disagree. I think this is called distorting facts to fit preconceived theories. Science would involve establishing the causes of each individual death accurately and tabulating the various causes accurately in order to determine as far as possible sci-en-ti-fi-cal-ly what was the reason for the excess deaths.
But trying to explain that to normies who are ruled by their preconceptions is a waste of breath frankly. One might as well talk to a brick wall. At least if one talks loudly enough, one may receive back an echo of one’s own voice from said wall.
While we leave that plate pinning in the air, let’s set up a new one. Is COVID-19 the same disease in all the places reporting it. Is it the same in Wuhan as in Lombardy and is it the same in Lombardy as in New York? If you assumed the answer was “Yes, obviously”, well, you might be advised to assume a bit less and think a bit more.
For those who have good memories and who are capable of holding onto information from one week or month to the next, you may recall that Wuhan is just about the most polluted place in China and that China is at the very least one of the most polluted places on earth. People were protesting/rioting in Wuhan last summer—not like in Hong Kong about their freedoms, but about the quality of the air.
You may recall, similarly, that Lombardy has the highest levels of air pollution in Europe and also has a lot of immigrants from countries to the South, many of who are infected with TB and suffer from severe vitamin D deficiency.
New York also has a lot of immigrants from countries to the South, many of who are infected with TB and suffer from severe vitamin D deficiency.
All in all, this disease is striking hardest those places where PM 2.5 and PM 10 levels are highest.
One more factor that seems to be worth taking into account is that we are around solar minimum in the 11-year cycle and this solar minimum has been deeper than usual with less sunspots. It may be that decreased solar UV light electromagnetic power is affecting our planet much more than most people would assume.
And let’s not forget the 5G rollout in both Wuhan and Lombardy last Autumn.
Please don’t assume there is just one cause that is responsible for all the so-called C19-related deaths. That’s simplistic to the point of absurdity.
If there is nothing to hide then why did the two California doctors get blocked on Youtube….
They run a major testing facility and they stated that the death rate is similar to any other flu.
I have discussed this with university epidemiologists in NZ and they support these assertions.
As this has the appearance of a plan to terminate BAU in a manner that reduces suffering, then the PTB will do whatever it takes to keep people off the scent — and that could include increasing the total number of deaths over the past two months to make it appear that Covid is killing a lot of people.
Unfortunately, the death rate for COVID-19 is not the same as for any other flu. This is well established. The two California doctors overstate their case. I am not an advocate of suggesting that people see this video. Its message is overstated. The real story is somewhat in the middle.
Italia today reopen. Most big problema are bus. Not enought. People fight for stay but driver call police
I am sure people will be crowded into buses as well. This will tend to spread whatever viruses are still around.
Fantastic, the more people crowd, the sooner we get to herd immunity.
We need to get people sneezing everywhere and people licking railings… this thing would end in a month.
“[W]hat people are trying to do is flatten the curve. I don’t really know why. But, what happens is if you flatten the curve, you also prolong, to widen it, and it takes more time. And I don’t see a good reason for a respiratory disease to stay in the population longer than necessary,” he said.
https://www.thecollegefix.com/epidemiologist-coronavirus-could-be-exterminated-if-lockdowns-were-lifted/
Let’s FATTEN the CURVE!
So this is where the powers that be are taking us (UK):
Coronavirus UK: health passports ‘possible in months’
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/03/coronavirus-health-passports-for-uk-possible-in-months
There is currently no compulsory ID in the UK. Looks like they have found an excuse.
China apparently was looking into the idea, based on stories appearing around April 15. How China’s ‘Colour Codes’ system could reopen the economy after the pandemic
But we don’t know to what extent they adopted it and whether it is working.
Somebody, somewhere, will implement this idea, I expect. If it were clearer who is immune, it would be a whole lot easier to implement.
How so when the tests in the UK are so inaccurate?
Even doctors and nurses can’t get access to 100% reliable tests.
A farce of a country (as we’ve known for a long time).
Roche are claiming to have created an antibody test with 99.8% accuracy, which will apparently be rolled out here *within weeks*. We shall see.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-antibody-test-with-almost-100-accuracy-could-be-in-uk-in-weeks-11982834
I thought it was very premature as well. As Gail has pointed out, it looks like having the virus once is no protection from getting it again. So the very idea seems nonsensical. Unless the purpose is to be able to issue identity cards. The UK government tried a few years ago and failed miserably.
If you do not get immunity after being infected by Covid (I find that hard to believe…) then why are we locking down?
Obviously we need to lock down permanently.
>>then why are we locking down?
Damned good question.
75,000 ill, 2,000 deaths, many thousands recovered: Can you get coronavirus twice?
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/02/19/coronavirus-after-2000-deaths-can-you-get-virus-again/4804905002/
“For many patients who have been cured, there is a likelihood of relapse.”
As a long time reader of Gail, on several occasions, she has wrote that the functional financial system may be the first causulty of the end of BAU… apparently this person at Forbes agrees!
May 3, 2020,07:11pm EDt
Donald Trump And The Fed Could Be About To Destroy The U.S. Banking System
Billy Bambrough
https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2020/05/03/donald-trump-and-the-fed-could-be-about-to-destroy-the-us-banking-system/amp/
Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve have gone to extraordinary lengths to prop up the U.S. economy in recent weeks.
The coronavirus pandemic and the lockdowns put in place to slow its spread have ravaged the U.S. economy—with the Fed and the Trump administration pumping a staggering $6 trillion in to the system since March and taking interest rates back to record lows to keep it on its feet.
Now, as the economic reality of a post-coronavirus world sinks in, president Trump and the Fed are edging closer to negative interest rates—something legendary investor Warren Buffett has warned could have “extreme consequences
Negative interest rates, meaning borrowers are paid to take out loans by the lender, have been adopted by a number of central banks around the world, led by some European central banks and the Bank of Japan
If a central bank sets its overnight deposit rate to below zero, lenders must pay their central bank to hold their reserves. Banks could then pass those costs on to their customers, charging fees for positive balances.
Some economists believe negative interest rates can jolt life into flatlining economies, encouraging money to be invested or spent, though others fear a negative interest rate policy could keep an economy subdued.
“We’re doing things that we don’t know [their] ultimate outcome,” Buffett said when asked about the possibility of negative interest rates in the U.S. at Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting on Saturday.
“[Negative interest rates are] probably the most interesting question that I’ve seen in economics,” Buffett said, speaking to shareholders via webcast and warning of “extreme consequences” if a negative interest rate policy is brought in.
Yes, Mr Buffett very Interesting indeed
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sTd_73Slj3Q
Negative interest rates really haven’t helped the economies of Europe or Japan. Instead, they seem to create problems for banks.
You are right. I agree with this writer.
No sign of a V-shaped recovery here, either. Estimated U.S. oil consumption has returned to a level not seen since 1971.
Oil flows spell deep recession
https://www.offshore-technology.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2019/01/Oil-rig-on-land.jpg
One of the indications of whether that is happening will be energy consumption worldwide. For comparison the U.S. Energy Information Administration reports that the decline in worldwide consumption of refined petroleum products between 2007 and the end of 2009 was 1.5 percent, the period now called the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). Total world energy consumption during the same period actually increased by 0.2 percent (though it declined by 1 percent between 2009 and 2010). We are currently looking at energy consumption declines of 20 times that for oil and probably many times that for total energy consumption. The latest consumption numbers for U.S. refined petroleum products do not provide any reason for optimism…
Good points!
The article you link is a Kurt Cobb write-up related to Art Berman’s recent analysis, which I posted a link to on OFW. I know both of these people from the US Association for the Study of Peak Oil meetings. Art Berman also wrote for The Oil Drum.
Thanks Gail!
“The days when stock and bond prices could be seen as a reliable indicator of the health of a nation’s economy are over, it seems. Central banks now pump in money which serves to reinflate bombed-out financial securities and make a nonsense of traditional risk measures…
“Do these measures signal our ability to control the ups and downs of the global economy? Or we are storing up trouble by staving off a mega correction that can only become more painful the longer it is delayed?”
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3082641/dangerous-disconnect-between-bullish-stock-markets-and-weak-global
Harry, I believe the Central Bankers, when the wheels finally do fall off the can, will be coming this song as they exit their walls of power and privilege,
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DxVkAhto0Ag
In a way, the chorus is already humming it as we see the common people hit the streets to protest. Wait until people really start to act up in the United States. No worry the Home Gaurd was established to protect and make the society safe.
“The coronavirus pandemic spurred a turn toward nationalism around the world. Now banks are in the vanguard of the movement…
“Intesa Sanpaolo, headquartered in Milan, is reinforcing an “Italy first” lending policy. Beijing-based Bank of China is retreating to its home market after a big push into the Middle East. In Frankfurt, Deutsche Bank put Indian expansion plans on hold while throwing resources at Germany. Bank of America is among several US institutions being more selective in their European lending.”
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/banking/global-banks-turn-inward-with-pandemic-upending-priorities
“””With global supply chains getting weaker, companies and countries will compete more fiercely for key raw materials and core technologies…””
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tech/2020/05/693_288886.html
“After the Great Depression there was a rise in nationalism around the world – as a direct result of the financial, social and emotional hardships of the depression – creating the conditions that eventually led to the second world war.
“There has been a similar rise in nationalism, populism and xenophobia during the coronavirus outbreak…”
https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/impact-coronavirus-compare-great-depression-200420070542882.html
“After the Great Depression there was a rise in nationalism around the world – as a direct result of the financial, social and emotional hardships of the depression – creating the conditions that eventually led to the second world war.
“There has been a similar rise in nationalism, populism and xenophobia during the coronavirus outbreak…”
………………………………….
Classic example of journalism as propaganda. They have a bag of boogie-man words and scenarios that they blend into a propagandistic word salad that we are all supposed to swallow.
And of course, most people, being free of independent knowledge (I always thought that the mainstream view as that it was the inequities of the Treaty of Versailles that was supposed to have led to WW2 – do people nowadays even know what that was?) and daring not to have an opinion of their own, do swallow it.
Remember, all of you people (evil nationalist populists) who want to escape the chains of globalism and rule yourself as sovereign nations under elected governments, if you don’t do as WHO and Bill Gates and the IMF tell you, there will be a World War!
America FIRST!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dIaoZqMrbCo
Kim, usually the dethroning of the top Superpower and the making of a new one entails
there will be a World War
When there is a not enough to go around, countries seem to act in a predictable way. They turn inward, to try to keep what they have.
Of course, this doesn’t work well with variable food supply. If countries don’t share their excesses, the overall supply is much lower.
Thank you for the good news. A rise in nationalism and populism means a fall in globalism, the destroyer of nations, peoples, and traditions. And WWII had nothing to do with the Great Depression; its two main causes were (a) the injustice done to Germany by the Treaty of Versailles, and (b) the injustice done to Russia by ripping away her western territories and giving them to Poland. Both, incidentally, at the urging of that blithering idiot Woodrow Wilson.
Actually, I think the turn toward nationalism started earlier, when countries figured out that there weren’t enough jobs that paid well within their own countries. Also, it was clear that China could not really grow as planned; dependence on China looked absurd. Hence, all of the tariffs.
COVID-19 was a way of increasing a trend that was already there. Our dependence on other countries was no longer working well.
The article does admit as much but you are right – governments were already turning protectionist and many trade wars were underway well before the pandemic, eg China vs. US, Japan vs. S Korea, UK vs. EU, and Nigeria vs. Ghana.
Boom
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-j-crew-group-bankruptcy/j-crew-files-for-bankruptcy-as-preppy-retailer-succumbs-to-covid-19-fallout-idUSKBN22G0O4
Not exactly a star performer before:
“Misery loves company when it comes to credit ratings in a retail world shut down by COVID-19.
“While J. Crew Group Inc., Neiman Marcus Group and J.C. Penney Co. Inc. are all seen as filing for bankruptcy within the next few weeks, the list of companies struggling with weak credit ratings and at risk of some kind of default are growing.”
https://wwd.com/business-news/financial/default-risk-grows-for-distressed-retailers-in-covid-19-shutdown-1203626298/
“While aggressive federal and state intervention and temporary corporate measures have prevented a surge in evictions and foreclosures, the housing and rental market has fallen into a severe crisis that threatens the ability of millions of Americans to stay in their homes even if the coronavirus pandemic eases in the coming months.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/03/may-rent-mortgages-coronavirus/
in not too long, we will see reports of how many people missed their May 1 rental payments and mortgage payments. Likely more than April 1.
These companies were having problem earlier.
“Asia’s factory activity was ravaged in April, business surveys showed on Monday, and the outlook dimmed further as government restrictions on movement to contain the coronavirus outbreak froze global production and slashed demand.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-global-economy/pandemic-slams-asias-factories-activity-hits-financial-crisis-lows-idUSKBN22G0AU
“Factories across Europe have suffered their bleakest month in decades as the coronavirus crisis has wreaked havoc with supply chains, production and demand, new figures show.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/europe-pmi-eurozone-coronavirus-factories-slump-080250140.html
Great news! Tipping point cannot be far off….
I just started buying luxury food items (luxury for us, certainly not expensive) for our ‘last suppers’, nothing fresh as it won’t keep. The family have not a clue and think I am acting strangely. ‘Just in case’ says I. They are ok with that, for now.
Before this is over, one’s shoes might start to look rather tasty…
Is it really impossible to talk frankly even with your family? Or are they just too depressed already?
dont worry about it till you find yourself trying to decide between which family member you love the most and which is the meatiest
They don’t want to know. Or rather, Mrs M certainly doesn’t, and I don’t want to be responsible for making the two teenagers very, very unhappy. I have been mentioning for some years that the ‘oil is running out’ and they are fine with that, they don’t understand the implications. Last night when I got home with the extra food, I did mention there with issues with food supplies worldwide. Again, they have no issues with that, they don’t understand what I am getting at, yet.
keep the faith!!!
when you show up one day with a slain deer across your back, and sling it across the kitchen table with the immortal words of the hunter:
“Skin and prepare that, woman; I want venison for dinner tonight!”
you willl be master in your own household again
Lots of people have been stockpiling so nothing odd about your doing that… it would not even raise an eyebrow…
Most stockpilers believe we may have a very rough patch where food is an issue — but then we will return to smooth sailing.
They cannot see
http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1691021/images/o-WAVES-OCEAN-facebook.jpg
I suspect that before people start eating shoes they’ll dine on human flesh first.
If anyone has not read The Road… I highly recommend it because the movie does not give justice to the part where they stumble upon the house and find the people locked in the basement… actually it’s more of an abattoir…
In the book they get into detail about what was going on in there… things like hacking body parts off of live persons and cooking them…. I can’t recall but were they not cauterizing the ‘wounds’ to keep them alive so they could have fresh meat?
Keep in mind there was no refrigeration and humans are very clever animals… eating an entire person in one go was a bit too much to chew … so this would be an excellent way to ensure the meat did not go off.
Those of you with young kids… keep them close in the coming months…..
I don’t think of it as hoarding. There won’t be much. I doubt many in the UK are hoarding – they are still in the ‘It will all be over soon (in a nice way)’ mode.
The Road – only book I have read in one night. Film was good too:
Excellent idea! I must get around to that. What’s the point of eating rice and canned stuff every day — then starving — well… I doubt I will starve before the radiation arrives…
The nearest ponds are in Japan and South China… quite a few in India as well…. once the power goes off … I suspect it will be less than a week before the wind delivers the first particles of death to NZ…. of course the particles will keep coming … and coming … and coming…
I wonder how long it will take before I start to feel sick?
You guys up there in Europe and North America are really screwed. So many ponds and reactors!!! You’ll get the full brunt of the plumes within a day or two of BAU’s death.
Maybe you should start starving now — I hear it’s a far better way to die than radiation poisoning.
This is worth downloading just so you get an idea of what’s coming – of course no spent fuel ponds were compromised in this accident (that’s where the serious amounts of fuel are of course….) but still worth checking out https://www.magnetdl.com/c/chernobyl/
http://nuclearinfo.net/twiki/pub/Nuclearpower/CurrentReactors/world_map.png
People don’t understand that all jobs are essential to have sufficient demand to keep commodity prices up. In fact, prices still drop too low, even with everyone working. This is indirectly what causes unrest in economies that depend heavily on resource extraction.
Eliminating jobs makes the situation much worse, because then there commodity prices fall greatly.
When different economies shut down at different times, supply lines break. If China’s economy is down, it affects all of Asia.
Or even just taking a pay cut, to keep your job. It’s called, ” raising productivity”.
“Welcome to the post-pandemic U.S. economy. The biggest companies are getting even bigger. Midsize players are running on fumes. Brick-and-mortar stores are struggling to get financing just to make it to next month. Startups — the building blocks of a competitive economy — are disappearing.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-03/the-big-keep-getting-bigger-in-the-pandemic-rearranged-economy
Meanwhile, at the other end of the spectrum:
“The majority of eligible Americans have now received stimulus checks through the CARES Act, except for the excluded workers — the forgotten ones — who we depend on in many facets of our lives. These forgotten — but essential — workers pick the ripe fruits we eat; they cook the warm meals at our favorite take-out restaurants; and they sanitize checkout devices at grocery stores late into the night…”
https://thehill.com/opinion/civil-rights/495690-the-forgotten-ones
“The physics of the low energy situation may be trying to “freeze out” the less efficient portions of the economy…
“Physicist François Roddier has examined how economies allocate resources when there is a problem with scarcity. He finds that when there is inadequate total energy supply, this shortage is reflected in growing wage and wealth disparity. Thus, the goods and services made possible by energy supplies are disproportionately allocated to a small proportion of individuals at the top of the economic hierarchy, while those at the bottom receive a falling share.
“He likens the increasing share of wages/wealth going to the top to steam rising. At the same time, he sees the falling share of energy consumption going to those at the bottom of the hierarchy as freezing out those who are contributing the least to the economy. Using this approach, some portion of the economy can be maintained in a period of temporary energy scarcity, even if the most vulnerable parts are lost.”
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2018/08/27/how-energy-shortages-really-affect-the-economy/
When there is not enough energy, it is the big/strong that benefit. The small are “frozen out.” What energy is available rises to the top. This would imply that big cities and big governments can continue, besides big businesses. But can they really?
At some point, there needs to be a moment of reckoning.
Right, as with your Leonardo sticks, Gail. It’s fascinating though, seeing the system sucking wealth, or at least money, upwards in this way as it attempts to remain viable.
Made me think of this article, too:
“…the mere perception of Fed backing helps risky firms borrow anew… The Fed encourages extremely risky behavior then bails out the risk takers… , this moral hazard bailout is the Third Major Transfer From the Middle Class to the Wealthy in 20 years.”
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/no-junk-debt-is-too-risky-thank-you-fed-202004281901
When you have no money you are no longer ‘middle class’. Well, at least then the transfers can stop….
Only aristocrats and peasants truly have a class, which comes from birth and long generations of descent (peasants longest of all!) – the rest is just the ups and downs of economic chance.
Many of the US ‘middle class’ were just ordinary workers in a boom time.
If the US survives this -if any of us do – I wonder if we will look more like Latin America?
Xabier, after moving to the USA in 1973, I puzzled for a long time about what I was seeing. It finally dawned on me: the US was a third world country. A very rich third world country, to be sure, but look deeper. Many homeless with no hope of ever finding good housing outside some rancid inner city ghetto. Massive street crime; much public transport totally unsafe; the elite in gated compounds under armed guard; political corruption at almost every level of government. A health care system designed to enrich hospitals, insurance companies, and lawyers. An education system that taught nothing useful, especially not the vocational training that has traditionally been the first rung on the ladder of employment success. A system of trades unions that fought with employers not for the workers, but for the union bosses. And on, and on.
that’s been my assessment from just occasional visits there—you just confirmed what i really didn’t want to admit to—always seem unreal somehow
“The US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, claimed on Sunday there is “enormous evidence” the coronavirus outbreak originated in a Chinese laboratory – but did not provide any of the alleged evidence.
“Pompeo’s claims, made in an interview with ABC’s This Week, represented an escalation in rhetoric.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/03/mike-pompeo-donald-trump-coronavirus-chinese-laboratory
“China’s upcoming defence budget will be only slightly hit by the economic downturn that followed the coronavirus outbreak, and a modest increase is still expected as it continues to develop its military capability, analysts said.”
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3082530/chinas-military-budget-will-still-rise-despite-coronavirus
Perhaps we should read this as, “There are a huge number of unemployed Chinese. By increasing military spending, we expect to employ at least a few of these unemployed people.”
“A company boss told employees that in south China, 80 percent of private companies rely on exports to survive. Now that these companies are losing their overseas customers from Europe and North America, a huge wave of layoffs is foreseeable.
“As long as the United States is struggling to combat the pandemic, there will be no improvement for China’s economy. Our business model is to produce about 85 to 90 percent of our products for export. In south China, 80 percent of private companies rely on exports, just like our company. How can we ever rely on China’s domestic demand? All our production is geared for export.
“No export means bankrupt factories. Bankruptcy means the Chinese will become jobless and not have income. It’s a chain reaction.”
https://www.theepochtimes.com/many-chinese-export-companies-face-bankruptcy_3312077.html
And debt, another of China’s exports, is also looking problematic:
“Amid the psychological rubble of the Covid-19 crisis, strands of China’s ‘New Silk Roads’ have been fused into a web of debt.
“What was a high-risk game of loans is now threatening cash-strapped countries as they struggle to combat the deadly coronavirus outbreak.”
https://asiatimes.com/2020/05/china-squeezes-debt-repayments-from-virus-hit-nations/
“The major Chinese commercial banks once had more dollar assets than liabilities. Not anymore.
“Chinese banks now owe more dollars than they are owed. In short, China’s Banks Are Running Out of Dollars.”
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/demand-for-dollars-is-high-chinese-banks-running-out
This chart ends 12/31/ 2018. A person wonders how bad the situation is now, in 2020.
The “New Silk Roads,” financed by China, seem to me to be more like the financing of projects in Africa and elsewhere using debt (available through the IMF and others). The main beneficiaries of the debt are the companies providing the development, not the countries supposedly doing the development.
Particularly as they seem to send huge numbers of Chinese out to do the work and direct things -which is why Tedros wanted to keep Africa open to flights from China I believe.
China needs both the US and Europe to be buying its products, in order to keep up its economy. Even if the US by itself could get itself back up and operating, this would not be enough.
this is worth posting again
https://youtu.be/KLODGhEyLvk
Lidia, I don’t know anyone in my day-to-day life who is aware that we are going through economic carnage (UK).
I posted a few of the articles from here over at Craig Murray’s (UK) website and the reaction was mostly hostile. I tried to point this out to my colleagues in our daily chats via the internet, as subtly as I could, and they were not having it. Most people here in the UK are right behind lockdown, they really believe it is for the greater good and expect everything to return to near-normal afterwards.
They have been well and truly taken in by the MSM propaganda.
UK public strongly in favour of lockdown continuing, poll shows
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-lockdown-britain-public-opnion-a9496346.html
The context for Ugo’s comment was the “Limits to Growth” study of 1972. What Ugo meant was what we are going through now was inevitable. The reaction to the virus (lockdowns) has speeded things up, quite considerably. Turned a slow, painful process into a quick one.
That is how I see it anyway.
Not sure how this post ended up here. It is in response to an earlier post from Lidia17 and I thought I had clicked ‘Reply’. Maybe it is an age thing.
For my part I am encouraging the belief that there will be a return to normal at the end of the summer: I see no point in alarming the complacent and trusting, they probably wouldn’t take it in anyway, nor do I wish to be known as that gloomy pariah.
Mr Positive, that’s my public persona. He who predicts doom will be the first to be targeted with anger when things go seriously wrong. No one ever thanks the prophet…..
I have told a friend who is, unfortunately, expecting a baby in the late summer that there maybe some slight food supply difficulties and that it would be wise to stock up a bit on basics as she goes along. What more can one do?
Buying all kinds of stuff online, I find that more and more lines are simply running out.
Deliveries and order fulfilment are becoming rather random, and one hardly sees a courier these days and this village used to hum with them before the lock-down.
Big logistics trucks still going along the main roads, and the regular supermarket lorries – for how much longer? If you go to a supermarket it still looks pretty much OK with only flour noticeably absent – people have no reason to suspect that it can’t all kick back into gear after the lock-downs.
The beautiful Spring weather makes it all the more surreal…..
I think you are right Xabier. It was the same when I ‘discovered’ peak oil in 2003. Whenever I brought it up in conversation, the usual response was anger, they understood perfectly well what the consequences meant for their lifestyle and did not want to know.
Same now with the economic fallout. The virus issue is something a bit more temporary and recoverable that folks can cope with.
Yep,they can trustingly hang on ‘Just until the vaccine is ready…’
I’ve quoted it before, but
Why pray for the fog to lift, when it will only show the tiger chasing you’.
People invariably look at the situation from their own limited perspective: What benefit might the lockdown have for me, in terms of preventing death of myself or a loved one?
They cannot imagine that there could be a downside. In their view, the economy will bounce back.
https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/22/there-is-no-empirical-evidence-for-these-lockdowns/?fbclid=IwAR1btuSgW93_w3ZITGR2ouC5I9EuCgB1JJZHejryIvUNoDQFwXHPi0-tuYk
A link to this article was posted earlier. I said at that time that I didn’t agree with the comparisons being made. It is too much apples to oranges.
‘Will we die of hunger?’: how Covid-19 lockdowns imperil street children
For millions of young people, coronavirus restrictions have made access to food, water and shelter even more precarious
Timothy, a teenager on the streets of Mombasa, wonders how he will eat. “Rich people can stay home … because they have a store well stocked with food,” he says. “For a survivor on the street your store is your stomach.”
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/apr/15/will-we-die-of-hunger-how-covid-19-lockdowns-imperil-street-children
http://buzzkenya.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/poverty-in-kenya2.jpg
How eloquently stated…
Let’s not forget that we ‘rich’ people are more important that the poor people so those poor people need to lockdown and eliminate the virus (too!!!). Because if they don’t some of these poor sods are going to wiggle into our covid free utopias and infect us again.
So we need to lock these people down … don’t care if millions of them starve — they don’t matter — we matter — and then only the wealthy ‘we’
Someone actually implied that in an email to me the other day…. which is just totally appalling…
I replied with Ardern is not only a morrrron … in a few more weeks she will also be complicit in mass murder….
A bit extreme but a far cry from suggesting millions should die…. yet it appears that I have seriously offended this person as they did not reply.
And to be frank — I am beyond giving a fkkkkk if anyone is offended by that type of comment.
I have had enough of having to listen to brain dead donkeys.
Why do they need to suffer — when all we need to do is flood their countries with Fentanyl?
regarding that photo of the village strung along the railway in Mombasa, if we erected a functioning birdbath fountain along the right-of-way, would anyone notice, even the birds? there is a certian flow and completeness in the setting. i’m starting to channel Artleads, but there’s some underlying symmetry there among that self-organized system. wierd.
Of course, lockdowns don’t really “eliminate the virus.” Instead, they add to the share of people without antibodies who can be infected on the next round.
They also get people in the right frame of mind to stay at home and starve.
https://news.yahoo.com/bolsonaro-tells-rally-brazil-lockdown-destroying-jobs-223312278.html
Bolsonaro blamed state governors for continuing the lockdown in a speech outside his presidential palace in Brasilia.
“The destruction of jobs by some governors is irresponsible and unacceptable. We will pay a high price in the future,”…
translated: they are destroying jobs right now, and it will only get worse in the future…
Interesting that the only three politicians against lockdowns are the rulers of the three biggest countries in the Americas (BoJo tried it, but we know what happened to him)
A person could interpret this as, “Countries with higher resources per capita are tending to push back against lockdowns. Countries which were already failing (indirectly because of too much population relative to resources) tend to push back less against lockdowns.”
Maybe they hope that the lock-downs will strengthen their case for aid and debt-forgiveness? Or the rulers fear riots and revolution if too many die?
WHY THEY ARE LYING US ? – People Need To Know The Truth !! – Dr. Andrew Kaufman
Warning, normies will find Dr. Kaufmean’s lack of faith in the official narrative disturbing.
https://youtu.be/oHREpsETpTM
I am not convinced that there is a real problem, however. Even with current instructions, there still seem to be more “excess deaths” (comparing to prior years’ death certificates) than there are COVID-19 counts. The issue is that it is extremely difficult to identify COVID-19 deaths, just as it is extremely difficult to identify people who have the illness.
Our tests tend to be flawed, even when they are performed. They are expensive and require bodies to be stored (refrigerated) until tests can be done. The cost/benefit of using these tests is very low. We can’t trace every contact of every person with COVID-19 without becoming like China.
OBEY OR:
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nypd-officer-on-modified-duty-following-taser-incident-in-east-village-commissioner/2400380/
https://edtvproductions.com/u-s-surgeon-general-adams-dumps-gates-cdc-who-predictive-contagion-model/
“I feel confident that some places will start to reopen in May and June. Other places won’t; it will be piece by piece, bit by bit, but will be data-driven,” he said.
so “other places” won’t even reopen by June…
very disappointing…
I want to see everything reopened everywhere… now…
so that the big test can begin…
the real life test to see how much the economy can recover from the massive damage…
hurry up and reopen already!
‘Data- driven; ‘based on the science’; ‘extreme caution’; ‘re-opening by stages’: God, give me a gun to shoot these imbeciles now!
Every business is essential: all have to open for the whole to function.
After the pandemic came the Dumb-demic. That’s what will do us in….
This is what happens when people are divorced from reality.
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=221497835751523
Perhaps the US will back down from the scare mongering a bit. Other countries will still do whatever they choose. People think about themselves and are worried. I am not certain that an about-face on model use at this point matters very much.
New Mexico Governor Quarantines Entire City, Closes All Roads That Lead Into Town
Taking a page out of the Wuhan coronavirus playbook, one New Mexico city has invoked the state’s Riot Control Act to lock down the entire city of Gallup, shutting down all roads leading into the city.
The decision was made by New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham and was done “to mitigate the uninhibited spread of COVID-19 in that city,” according to CBS News.
The governor’s office said on Friday of last week: “Effective at 12 p.m., May 1, all roads into Gallup are closed. Businesses in the city of Gallup will close from 5 p.m. through 8 a.m. Vehicles may only have a maximum of two individuals. Residents of the city should remain at home except for emergency outings and those essential for health, safety and welfare.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/governor-closes-roads-mexico-city-202637392.html
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8a/Scared_Child_at_Nighttime.jpg/1200px-Scared_Child_at_Nighttime.jpg
You prediction matches Donella Meadows’ et al. report Limits to Growth (1972).
Yes, definitely. The base model was approximately correct.
Depending on the model (current), they were amazingly correct.
https://www.peakprosperity.com/dennis-meadows-the-limits-to-growth/
(a realistic podcast- so not going to make one happy)
In regards to the discussion of IQ.
IQ is just one of the qualities of humans that can be regarded as desirable.
I would put compassion on that list also.
Many people might be amiable to considering different viewpoints but if a individual is presenting a viewpoint and his only concern is “being right” than it works against that consideration.
Not even the top physicists of the world regard their ideas as absolute.
They are smart enough to know that their ideas are only an opinion.
You can be right in a idea and very wrong in the way you present it.
One of Gails qualities is her humbleness. A second her tolerance. It allows her brilliance to be accepted. Only the first two qualities allow the third.
If someone was so ill as to think their being right or wrong defined who they were, their value, that would be a sad thing. Because their value is far greater than that. If their illness were to manifest in actions. It would make me sad. To realize the what doesnt make sense in the world only to demonstrate it in your actions is not ok.
As I have said… I don’t like the term IQ … but I use it because it’s something that most people can understand…
Someone with a 700 – 1000IQ is seen as someone very special considering nobody has ever busted 200. 700-1000… 10,000… 100,000…. all meaningless… E>M>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>P
You see what I am saying? It’s like comparing the IQ of a normie to a worm… but the scale is so much more extreme that than … you’d need to fill the Rose Bowl with a 1 and a trillion little zeros to even begin to grasp what you are looking at here on OFW…..
So IQ really cannot be used to measure the capabilities of FE… FE is beyond genius… more like a prophet or a messiah…. some might even say he is God. Not ‘a’ god. God. Or maybe Your Highness God of the Universe.
Would you apply IQ to an all-powerful, omnipotent entity like That?
https://muhaise.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/download.jpg
Let’s move onto a topic that is controversial.
thank you, friutloops… well said..
Paul Weston (an English Nationalist politician) talks some Coronavirus sense:
good one, that. looking forward to the rest.
While listening to that, my mind wandered and I started to identify the books on the shelves that I’d read, and just the topics that he reads, has read. Interesting stuff, but some loony things in there.
RYANAIR SAYS NO HOLIDAY FLIGHTS UNTIL JULY AND CUTS UP TO 3,000 JOBS
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/ryanair-job-cuts-flights-cancelled-coronavirus-lufthansa-air-france-heathrow-a9493531.html
“Europe’s biggest budget airline has said that it will not be running more than a skeleton service until July – and even then, only around half the expected passengers will travel.
Ryanair says it will cut up to 3,000 jobs [15% of its staff], mainly pilots and cabin crew, in response to the coronavirus pandemic. It will also impose unpaid leave and pay cuts of up to 20 per cent, and close some bases, “until traffic recovers”…”
Unpaid leave and big pay cuts. Even those who still have a job are going to struggle.
I work at a UK university, no job or pay cuts yet. But we have been warned of a massive shortfall in income for coming financial year. I think cuts are unavoidable, at most universities.
Hopefully your university offers nursing degrees…
I suggest watching the interview associated with the Ryan Air story — does he really think anyone is going to get into a metal tube with everyone wearing face masks and being temperature checked — and go on holiday — even if international flights are resumed?
Then what happens when they arrive at their destination? What about the quarantines?
He is dreaming if he thinks we are going to get back to anything approaching normal by mid summer.
I suppose he has to put lipstick on the pig otherwise his airline will collapse.
The USA has…well, somebody counted 6000 colleges and universities, but a bunch of these would be tiny Bible colleges, so let’s say 1000-2000 worth thinking about. Most of the private ones (not the Ivies) depend on tuition (fees) for survival, and even some of the public ones are finding their sponsoring governments less willing or able to bail them out. An uncertain, but surely large, proportion of entering freshmen will balk at paying a lot of money for virtual instruction, and delay college. How many substantial schools will go bankrupt this year? A few hundred? Probably all of the HBCUs.
In Taiwan, there are a bit less than 150 such institutions, some of them very specialized (like the Coast Guard Academy). There was rampant university growth starting in the late 1980s, paired with a declining population of university-age young people, so a lot of these schools were in trouble well before the coronavirus. I don’t see young people here as likely to shun virtual instruction, though–there’s not as much of a US-style “campus atmosphere,” and most of them just want the degree anyway.
It is hard to see why young people would be willing to pay much extra to attend a big “name” university, if attendance will only be online.
In fact, if a lot of low-paid jobs are missing, I would wonder if young people in general will be high enough to consider college. Even the cost of a local college is likely to be out of the question for many. I expect enrollments to be down in the fall at colleges, whether they are low-priced or high-priced.
The amusing thing is the students and younger academics in the UK were protesting about their future pensions with ‘strikes’ just before the lock-downs.
I often felt like saying that they were dreaming if they even thought that such a thing as pensions would be in existence in 40 years time, or the University itself.
Meanwhile, the US production of uraniumoxide has dropped off sharply:
“U.S. production of uranium concentrate (U3O8) in the first quarter of 2020 was 8,098 pounds, down 79% from the fourth quarter of 2019 and down 86% from the first quarter of 2019”
https://www.eia.gov/uranium/production/quarterly/
And euh: US coal-production over the first 17 weeks was 20% lower than the same period last year.
“U.S. year-to-date coal production totaled 182.2 MMst, 20.9% lower than the comparable year-to-date coal production in 2019”
https://www.eia.gov/coal/production/weekly/
I understand that energy consumption is lower … but … is that the consequence of the COVID-19-policies or is lowering energy-consumption the aim of the COVID-19-restrictions?
Back in 2008, I found that all energy prices fell simultaneously, including uranium. It is demand for finished products that ultimately determines commodity prices. Uranium and coal drop with all of the other energy prices, including oil and natural gas.
Self-organizing systems act strangely. Each person acts based on their own personal self-interest, without considering much of anyone else. We end up with results that seem sort of bizarre. Epidemiologists look at disease only from the point of helping the medical community, not damage to the rest of the economy. Individual citizens think primarily of their own health and that of their loved ones.
Of course there is much irony in the fact that the medical workers in hospitals are now one of the main at-risk groups ,mostly due to lack of PPE and very high daily exposure, and therefore one of the main sources of infection.
Watching a video by a UK hospital doctor, he says they are being driven to despair by the utterly crappy UK tests, which often return a negative result for colleagues who have obvious COVID symptoms of cough, fever, etc.
One can only imagine the stress of having to go into an under-resourced hospital and expose oneself every day.
I don’t think politicians have an appreciation of how poorly the tests work in practice.
I suspect that politicians spend much of their time looking at reports on what the public think and working out a spin on it.
2900 dead today. Let’s see, 2900 times 365 is um… a lot. But, but it will just go away!!! Like the flu!
No, it won’t. Interesting that people just cannot grasp the magnitude of this disaster. The problem with getting the economy going again is that all those old people have money, and they are scared. Go to a show or restaurant in nyc. Look around. All the bills are being paid by old people. Or were. Total economic collapse. But the lights are still on contrary to the instant Doomers previous posts.
Past the death count of the US in Vietnam War. That took 5 years,
Covid took 2+ months.
The Viet Nam war took mostly young people. COVID-19 is taking mostly older folks. It is an interesting comparison though.
Yeah, but they’re the ones with the money.
The Vietnam War death counted Americans who died while engaged in the Vietnam War. It may not have been totally accurate, but it was within the ballpark of significance.
Conversely, the Covid death count measures the number of people who died and subsequently had Covid listed as the cause of death on their death certificates; it signifies nothing because there is no proof that any of the those people died from Covid as opposed to with Covid.
which totally misses the meaning of the data which is being reported out of the UK and France and Italy and the NY/NJ area that there have been total deaths in recent weeks that are much higher than expected deaths, based on the data from previous years…
this is called science…
now, we know the 2003 spike in France (higher than the 2020 spike), where actual deaths were much higher than expected deaths, was due to the extreme heatwavve…
what is the cause of the 2020 actual deaths being much higher than expected deaths in all of these areas?
(ps: reopen Japan… and hurry!)
Here’s the model going forward in case anyone missed it:
Japanese Island Forced Back Into Lockdown After New Coronavirus Wave Strikes
Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido — the first area of the country to see a major coronavirus outbreak — was forced back into lockdown after lifting its stringent restrictions too early, according to new reports.
https://time.com/5826918/hokkaido-coronavirus-lockdown/
Fauci warns protesters about dangers of ending lockdowns prematurely: ‘It’s going to backfire’
Asked for his message to those protesting, Fauci told ABC, “The message is that clearly this is something that is hurting from the standpoint of economics … but unless we get the virus under control, the real recovery, economically, is not going to happen.”
“If you jump the gun, and go into a situation where you have a big spike, you’re going to set yourself back,” he said. “So as painful as it is to go by the careful guidelines of gradually phasing into a reopening — it’s going to backfire. That’s the problem.”
https://theweek.com/speedreads/909785/fauci-warns-protesters-about-dangers-ending-lockdowns-prematurely-going-backfire
Of course the doctors who exposed this are – as someone informed me ‘internet fraudsters’
See how powerful you are if you control the msm…. you just assassinate the character of well-intentioned men and then you don’t give them a chance to defend their position …
If you pop over to wa n ker Wolf Street — you can see that in action on a smaller scale…
He’s another guy I’d like to feed a stick
http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1155838/penaltyy.gif
And yet, I do not know a single person who has reportedly died of Covid 19. I do not know of anyone who knows a single person who has died if it. In almost every county in the nation, there are those who died in Vietnam. In many counties there are memorials with their names engraved.
I do however know one person that got it in January. Older than 60 and portly….and he lived just fine.
And you try make it sound like people are dropping dead everywhere.
Most of the people who have died from Covid did not actually die from Covid… so it’s highly unlikely any of us will know someone who died from Covid.
The increases in death counts around the globe are consistent with a new cause of death causing a big spike in deaths. Depending how the comparison is done, the increase in death counts is often in excess of the COVID-19 counts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/coronavirus-deaths-likely-60-higher-official-numbers-reflect-ft-finds
Coronavirus Deaths Likely 60% Higher Than Official Numbers Reflect, FT Finds
The US CDC provides a comparison of actual to expected deaths, by week, but I think the comparison is flawed. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
The CDC’s “expected death counts” ( yellow line) tends to be biased high. It should go through the tops of the individual week data, not float above it. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/cdc-estimate-of-expected-deaths.png
If the expected line is lowered a bit, the “excess death count” becomes higher, and more consistent with the FT’s finding.
1.2 million sick that had been drawing down $50000 each for a total of 60 billion dollars per year are now gone what a relief to society to the young worker to all. Hurray!
Let us hope Bill (Gates) has vials two and three ready for the next two years.
It is looking like Bill is smarter than FE.
I don’t see how that pencils out against the losses of trillions we are otherwise incurring.
Total dying from virus, if everyone gets it (unlikely) – maybe 1%, about 78 million people.
Total dying from economic meltdown – if it’s bad enough, 50%+, 4 billion.
>>But the lights are still on contrary to the instant Doomers previous posts.
I have not seen any posts suggesting instant doom. Riots have started already. And very long food queues. Famine tends to take a few months to kick in.
It’s building … see the video https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hunger-crisis-coronavirus-pandemic/
I think ‘Insta’ has always meant a year or so in practical terms, assuming no sudden financial collapse.
Anyway, let’s all sing along with Greer the Druid: ‘We’re on the Stair-step to Hell!’
But, as he likes to say, not everyone will die, so it’s OK really……
It’s very true of restaurants in the UK: a sea of grey hairs. Kids gone, done with cooking and wanting to have fun before the care home beckons. My prosperous retired customers are also manic holiday-makers.
shades of Sweeney Todd!!!!
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Truckers protested against low freight rates outside the White House Saturday, while heavily armed men surrounded the New Hampshire and Oregon capitols as anti-lockdown demonstrations continue into the weekend.
A convoy of around 70 trucks descended on Washington DC for a second day Saturday to protest against low freight rates that truckers say are hammering the industry and leaving them unable to put food on the table amid the coronavirus pandemic.
As truckers sought to get the attention of President Trump and urge him to provide some respite to the industry, other forms of protests were also taking place across the nation.
Anti-lockdown protesters marched on the capitol buildings in New Hampshire and Oregon Saturday demanding an end to stay-at-home orders.
http://www.stationgossip.com/2020/05/truckers-protest-against-low-freight.html
Low rates for truckers could very well be a major problem. I don’t really know how these rates really work, in practice. I know that we have trucks operated by a lot of different organizations. Some of the trucks are owned by individuals. I would expect interest rates would vary, depending on when the truck was purchase. It would seem like the truck needs to be driven full, pretty much continuously, to have the freight charges on individual small items to add up to the amount the trucker needs to pay the overhead on the truck, plus his own salary, plus fuel charges. Fuel charges recently would be low, so that wouldn’t be an issue.
I found this chart from DAT Trendlines. If I am understanding the chart, the issue is at more that not enough stuff is being shipped now, rather than lower rates by themselves. Comparing April 2020 to April 2019, spot rates seem to be down about 11%. But fuel prices are down 20% according to the same chart, so the would not seem to be desperately bad. It is more that “spot load posts” are down 73.9%, comparing the two months.
And that’s the problem with price deflation. It hurts everyone from the oil companies to the truckers. The only ones who take advantage of lower prices are the consumers only because they are trapped in a wide wage disparity gap. If truckers can’t make deliveries then supply chains break. Then we would get into Alice Friedemann’s scenario ” What would happen if trucks stopped running?”
Cheap petrol is awesome — except I don’t need any petrol because the furthest I drive is to the supermarket once/week…. but it is awesome…. except…. That said… I save more money by not driving anywhere than I would save if I were to buy more cheap petrol….
As Elon Musk says the best part is the part you can design out. It never fails and it costs zero dollars.
What’s the logical conclusion to that? Just design out the whole thing (Tesla car) as unnecessarily costly and prone to failure.
Cheap Petrol is not “awesome”. You have not been paying attention. Put away your video games and get out of your parents basement and look around. Go back and read some old post from Gail and maybe you will get it…
Ah a normie… poor you Dan … you didn’t get it …
That’s ok … here … you get a treat anyway
https://img.thrfun.com/img/083/730/homemade_pet_treats_l1.jpg
thank you, Dann…
Dan and David; Eddy was using sarcasm to mock the hypothetical ordinary normal person’s simplistic equating of cheap gasoline with all that’s good in life. According to some folks, it’s the highest form of wit.
https://www.freelancewriternow.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/happymotoring.jpg
sure, Foil Eddie uses sarc all the time… 😉
70 trucks? Why not 700 trucks? Why not park 700 trucks on the main streets of Washington and lockdown the city? Then other cities.
It would be interesting to see how the government reacted to that. I suspect that some sort of national security law would be breached — massive fines and long jail sentences would be used to deter these fellas.
This is a nothing burger.
Yes FE there is zero tolerance for slave uprisings here on the prison farm. Even better explain to the organizers before such an event even happens what will happen to them and their children and grandchildren should they even try such a move.
It would be an ‘attack on democracy and our way of life’ for sure.
In Spain people took to pursuing corrupt politicians to their homes and protesting directly outside.
This was rapidly outlawed as ‘interference with democratically elected representatives with the intention of preventing them from performing their duties’ -ie pocketing brown envelopes stuffed with cash.
The only way I think you can ‘win’ is if you are willing to literally burn things to the ground. And by that I mean large numbers of people have to be willing to burn everything – buildings, houses, cars – the works….
We’ve not seen any protest movement willing to do that. Even the Palestinians draw the line at suicide bombings.
In HK they insist on We Burn You Burn….. so far that is more metaphorical in that they mean We Burn then We Will Burn Your Economy. They have not demonstrated a willingness to push that too far — they allow the firefighters to pass when they start something on fire.
Of course this sort of victory is literally Pyrrhic (basically suicidal) so you really need to be pi ssed off to go that far…
Another straw to add to the piile on the camel’s back, LOL😜
https://www.yahoo.com/news/besides-millions-layoffs-plunging-gdp-100025061.html
Besides millions of layoffs and plunging GDP, here’s another worry for economy: Falling prices
USA TODAY
Paul Davidson, USA TODAY
As if Great Depression-size job losses and a cartoonish contraction in the nation’s economic output weren’t enough, analysts are starting to fret over a new risk from the coronavirus pandemic: deflation.
Deflation, or a sustained period of falling prices, may sound like a good thing: Goods and services cost less, saving consumers money. But deflation prompts shoppers to put off purchases on the expectation that prices will fall further if they wait. That can lead to a toxic cycle in which lower spending prompts businesses to cut wages, further pushing down consumer purchases and prices.
Deflation also can make it harder to repay mortgages and other debt, which become costlier in inflation-adjusted terms.
The economy can get stuck in a rut, similar to the “lost decade” that battered Japan in the 1990s.
Economists similarly worried about deflation during the Great Recession of 2007-09. But while average annual price increases dipped below 1% in 2010, they never declined. The current recession, however, has featured a more abrupt and dramatic blow to the economy.
“I think the risk of the U.S. falling into a deflationary trap is higher now than at any time during the Great Recession,” says economist Ryan Sweet of Moody’s Analytics.
It seems like used car prices will fall. Probably home prices will fall as well. Commercial real estate prices will fall, if it is hard to find occupants for the buildings.