Many people are concerned today with the low price of oil. Others are concerned about slowing or stopping COVID-19. Is there any way forward?
I gave a few hints regarding what is ahead in my last post, Economies won’t be able to recover after shutdowns. We live in a world with a self-organizing economy, made up of components such as businesses, customers, governments and interest rates. Our basic problem is a finite world problem. World population has outgrown its resource base.
Some sort of economy might work with the current resource base, but not the present economy. The COVID-19 crisis and the lockdowns used to try to contain the crisis push the economy farther along the route toward collapse. In this post, I suggest the possibility that some core parts of the world economy might temporarily be saved if they can be made to operate fairly independently of each other.
Let’s look at some parts of the problem:
[1] The world economy works like a pump.
To use a hand water pump, a person forces a lever down, and the desired output (water) appears. Human energy is required to power this pump. Other versions of water pumps use electricity, or burn gasoline or diesel. However the pump operates, there needs to be some form of energy input, for the desired output, water, to be produced.
An economy follows a similar pattern, except that the list of inputs and outputs is longer. With an economy, we need the following inputs, including energy inputs:
- Human energy
- Supplemental energy, such as burned biomass, animal power, electricity, and fossil fuel.
- Other resources, including fertile land, fresh water and raw materials of various kinds.
- Capital goods, built in previous cycles of the “pump.” These might include factories and machines to put into the factories.
- Structure and support provided by governments, including laws, roads and schools.
- Structure and support provided by business hierarchies and their innovations.
- A financial sector to provide a time-shifting function, so that goods and services with future value can be paid for (in actual physical output) over their expected lifetimes.
The output of the economy is goods and services, such as the following:
- Food and the ability to store and cook this food
- Other goods, such as homes, cars, trucks, televisions and diesel fuel
- Services such as education, healthcare and vacation travel
[2] Adequate growth in supplemental energy (such as fossil fuels) is important for keeping the economy operating properly.
The more human energy is applied to a manual water pump, the faster it can pump. The economy seems to work somewhat similarly.
If we look back historically, the world economy grew well when energy supplies were growing rapidly.
Figure 2. Average growth in energy consumption for 10 year periods, based on the estimates of Vaclav Smil from Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects (Appendix) together with BP Statistical Data for 1965 and subsequent.
Economic growth encompasses both population growth and rising standards of living. Figure 3 below takes the same information used in Figure 2 and divides it into (a) the portion underlying population growth, and (b) the portion of the energy supply growth available for improved standards of living.
Figure 3. Figure similar to Figure 2, except that energy devoted to population growth and growth in living standards are separated. An ellipse is added showing the recent growth in energy is primarily the result of China’s temporary growth in coal supplies.
Looking at Figure 3, we see that, historically, more than half of energy consumption growth has been associated with population growth. There is a reason for this connection: Food is an energy product for humans. Growing food requires a lot of energy, both energy from the sun and other energy. Today, a large share of this other energy is provided by diesel fuel, which is used to operate farm equipment and trucks.
Another thing we can see from Figure 3 is that peaks in living standards tend to go with good times for the economy; valleys tend to go with bad times. For example, the 1860 valley came just before the US Civil War. The 1930 valley came between World War I and World War II, at the time of the Great Depression. The 1991-2000 valley corresponds to the reduced energy consumption of many countries affiliated with the Soviet Union after its central government collapsed in 1991. All of these times of low energy growth were associated with low oil (and food) prices.
[3] Even before COVID-19 came along, the world’s economic pump was reaching limits. This can be seen in several different ways.
(a) China’s problems. China’s growth in coal production started lagging about 2012 (Figure 4). As long as its coal supply was growing rapidly (2002 to 2012), this rapidly growing source of inexpensive energy helped pull the world economy along.
Figure 4. China energy production by fuel, based on 2019 BP Statistical Review of World Energy data. “Other Ren” stands for “Renewables other than hydroelectric.” This category includes wind, solar, and other miscellaneous types, such as sawdust burned for electricity.
Once China needed to depend on importing more energy to keep its energy consumption growth, it began running into difficulties. China’s cement production started to fall in 2017. Effective January 1, 2018, China found it needed to shut down most of its recycling. Auto sales suddenly starting falling in 2018 as well, suggesting that the economy was not doing well.
(b) Too much world debt growth. It is possible to artificially raise economic growth by offering purchasers of goods and services debt that they cannot really afford to pay back, to use for the purchase of goods and services. Clearly, this was happening before the 2008-2009 recession, leading to debt defaults at that time. The rise in debt to GDP ratios since that time suggest that it is continuing to happen today. If the world economy stumbles, much debt is likely to become impossible to repay.
(c) The need to lower interest rates to keep the world economy growing. If the world economy is growing rapidly, as it was in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, the economy is able to grow in spite of increasing interest rates (Figure 5). After energy supply growth slowed about 1980 (Figure 2), interest rates have needed to fall (Figure 5) to hide the slowing energy consumption growth. In fact, interest rates are near zero now, similar to the way they were in the 1930s. Interest rates are now about as low as they can go, suggesting that the economy is reaching a limit.
Figure 5. 3-month and 10-year US Treasury rates. Graph provided FRED.
(d) Growing wage disparity. Increased technology is viewed positively, but if it leads to too much wage disparity, it can create huge problems by bringing the wages of non-elite workers below the level they need to support a reasonable lifestyle. Globalization adds to this problem. Income disparity is now at a peak, around the level of the late 1920s.
Figure 6. U. S. Income Shares of Top 1% and Top 0.1%, Wikipedia exhibit by Piketty and Saez.
(e) Excessively low commodity prices, even before COVID-19 problems. With the world’s wage disparity problem, many workers find themselves unable to afford homes, cars, and restaurant food. Their lack of purchasing power to buy these end products tends to keep commodity prices too low for producers to make an adequate profit. Oil prices were already too low for producers in 2019, before lockdowns associated with COVID-19 were added. Producers of oil will go out of business at this price. In fact, other commodity prices, including those of liquified natural gas, copper, and lithium are all too low for producers.
[4] The COVID-19 problem, and in fact epidemic problems in general, are not going away.
The publicity recently has been with respect to the COVID-19 virus and the need to “flatten the curve” of infected individuals, so that the health care system is not overwhelmed. The solutions offered revolve around social distancing. This includes reduced air travel and fewer large gatherings.
The problem with these solutions is that they make the world’s problems related to slow economic growth and too much debt a great deal worse. Growing businesses are built on economies of scale. Social distancing requirements lead to less efficient use of buildings and furnishings. For example, if a restaurant can only serve 25% as many customers as previously, its overhead quickly becomes too high, relative to the customers it can serve. It needs to lay off workers. Laid off workers add to the problem of low demand for goods like new homes, vehicles and gasoline. Indirectly, they push commodity prices of all kinds down, including oil prices.
If this were a two-week temporary problem, the situation might be tolerable, but the virus causing COVID-19 is not easily subdued. Many cases of COVID-19 seem to be infectious during their latency period. They may also be infectious after the illness seems to be over. Without an absurd amount of testing (plus much more accurate testing than seems to be really available), it is impossible to know whether a particular airline pilot for a plane bringing cargo is infectious. No one can tell whether a factory worker going back to work is really infectious, either. Citizens don’t understand the futility of trying to contain the virus; they expect that an ever-large share of our limited resources will be spent on beating back the virus.
To make matters worse, from what we know today, a person cannot count on life-long immunity after having the disease. A person who seems to be immune today, may not be immune next week or next year. Putting a badge on a person, showing that that person seems to be immune today, doesn’t tell you much about whether that person will be immune next week or next year. With all of these issues, it is pretty much impossible to get rid of COVID-19. We will likely need to learn to live with it, coming back year after year, perhaps in mutated form.
Even if we could somehow work around COVID-19’s problems, we can still expect to have other pandemic problems. The problem with epidemics has existed as long as humans have inhabited the earth. Antibiotics and other products of the fossil fuel age have allowed a temporary reprieve from some types of epidemics, but the overall problem has not disappeared. Our attention is toward COVID-19, but there are many other kinds of plant and animal epidemics we are facing. For example:
- Bananas are being attacked by a fungus in many parts of the world.
- African swine fever has killed tens of millions of pigs in China and elsewhere.
- Locusts are attacking crops in Africa.
- Human pathogens are constantly evolving, so that today’s antibiotics work much less well.
Even if COVID-19 does not do significant harm to the world economy, with all of the resource limits and economic problems we are encountering, certainly some future worldwide pandemic will.
[5] Historically, the way the world economy has been organized is as a large number of almost separate economies, each acting like a separate economic pump. Such an arrangement is much more stable than a single tightly networked world economy.
If a world economy is organized as a group of individual economies, with loose links to other economies, there are several advantages:
(a) Epidemics become less of a problem.
(b) Each economy has more control over its own future. It can create its own financial system if it desires. It can decide who owns what. It can decree that wages will be very equal, or not so equal.
(c) If population rises relative to resources in one economy, or if weather/climate takes a turn for the worse, that particular economy can collapse without the rest of the world’s economy collapsing. After a rest period, forests can regrow and soil fertility can improve, allowing a new start later.
(d) The world economy is in a sense much more stable, because it is not dependent upon “everything going correctly, everywhere.”
[6] The COVID-19 actions taken to date, together with the poor condition the economy was in previously, lead me to believe that the world economy is headed for a major reset.
Recently, we have experienced world leaders everywhere falling in line with the idea of shutting down major parts of their economies, to slow the spread of COVID-19. Citizens are worried about the illness and want to “do something.” In a way, however, the shutdowns make no sense at all:
(a) Potential for starvation. Any world leader should know that a large share of its population is living “on the edge.” People without savings cannot get along without income for for a long period, maybe not even a couple of weeks. Poor people are likely to be pushed toward starvation, unless somehow income to buy food is made available to these people. This is especially a problem for India and the poor countries of Africa. The loss of population in poor countries due to starvation is likely to be far higher than the 2% death rate expected from COVID-19.
(b) Potential for oil prices and other commodity prices to fall far too low for producers. With a large share of the world economy shut down, prices for many goods fall too low. As I am writing this, the WTI oil price is shown as $1.26 per barrel. Such a low price is simply absurd. It will cut off all production. If food cannot be sold in restaurants, its price may fall too low as well, causing producers to plow it under, rather than send it to market.
(c) Potential for huge debt defaults and huge loss of asset value. The financial system is built on promises. These promises can only be met if oil can continue to be pumped and goods made with fossil fuels can continue to be sold. Today’s economic system is threatening to fall apart. Even at this point in the epidemic, we are seeing a huge problem with oil prices. Other problems, such as problems with derivatives, are likely not far away.
The economy is a self-organizing system. If there really is the potential for some parts of the world economic system to be saved, while others are lost, I expect that the self-organizing nature of the system will work in this direction.
[7] A reset world economy will likely end up with “pieces” of today’s economy surviving, but within a very different framework.
There are clearly parts of the world economy that are not working:
- The financial system is way too large. There is too much debt, and asset prices are inflated based on very low interest rates.
- World population is way too high, relative to resources.
- Wage and wealth disparity is too great.
- Too much of income is going to the financial system, healthcare, education, entertainment, and travel.
- All of the connectivity of today’s world is leading to epidemics of many kinds traveling around the world.
Even with these problems, there may still be some core parts of the world economy that perhaps can be made to work. Each would have a smaller population than today. They would function much more independently than today, like mostly separate economic pumps. The nature of these economies will be different in different parts of the world.
In a less connected world, what we think of today as assets will likely have much less value. High rise buildings will be worth next to nothing, for example, because of their ability to transfer pathogens around. Public transportation will lose value for the same reason. Manufacturing that depends upon supply lines around the world will no longer work either. This means that manufacturing of computers, phones and today’s cars will likely no longer be possible. Products built locally will need to depend almost exclusively on local resources.
Pretty much everything that is debt today can be expected to default. Shares of stock will have little value. To try to save parts of the system, governments will need to take over assets that seem to have value such as farm land, mines, oil and gas wells, and electricity transmission lines. They will also likely need to take over banks, insurance companies and pension plans.
If oil products are available, governments may also need to make certain that farms, trucking companies and other essential users are able to get the fuel they need so that people can be fed. Water and sanitation are other systems that may need assistance so that they can continue to operate.
I expect that eventually, each separate economy will have its own currency. In nearly all cases, the currency will not be the same as today’s currency. The currency will be paid only to current workers in the economy, and it will only be usable for purchasing a limited range of goods made by the local economy.
[8] These are a few of my ideas regarding what might be ahead:
(a) There will be a shake-out of governmental organizations and intergovernmental organizations. Most intergovernmental organizations, such as the United Nations and European Union, will disappear. Many governments of countries may disappear, as well. Some may be overthrown. Others may collapse, in a manner similar to the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union in 1991. Governmental organizations take energy; if energy is scarce, they are dispensable.
(b) Some countries seem to have a sufficient range of resources that at least the core portion of them may be able to go forward, for a while, in a fairly modern state:
- United States
- Canada
- Russia
- China
- Iran
Big cities will likely become problematic in each of these locations, and populations will fall. Alaska and other very cold places may not be able to continue as part of the core, either.
(c) Countries, or even smaller units, will want to continue to limit trade and travel to other areas, for fear of contracting illnesses.
(d) Europe, especially, looks ripe for a big step back. Its fossil fuel resources tend to be depleted. There may be parts that can continue with the use of animal labor, if such animal labor can be found. Big protests and failing debt are likely by this summer in some areas, including Italy.
(e) Governments of the Middle Eastern countries and of Venezuela cannot continue long with very low oil prices. These countries are likely to see their governments overthrown, with a concurrent reduction in exports. Population will also fall, perhaps to the level before oil exploration.
(f) The making of physical goods will experience a major setback, starting immediately. Many supply chains are already broken. Medicines made in India and China are likely to start disappearing. Automobile manufacturing will depend on individual countries setting up their own manufacturing supply chains if the making of automobiles is to continue.
(g) The medical system will suffer a major setback from COVID-19 because no one will want to come to see their regular physician anymore, for fear of catching the disease. Education will likely become primarily the responsibility of families, with television or the internet perhaps providing some support. Universities will wither away. Music may continue, but drama (on television or elsewhere) will tend to disappear. Restaurants will never regain their popularity.
(h) It is possible that Quantitative Easing by many countries can temporarily prop up the prices of shares of stock and homes for several months, but eventually physical shortages of many goods can be expected. Food in particular is likely to be in short supply by spring a year from now. India and Africa may start seeing starvation much sooner, perhaps within weeks.
(i) History shows that when energy resources are not growing rapidly (see discussion of Figure 3), there tend to be wars and other conflicts. We should not be surprised if this happens again.
Conclusion
We seem to be reaching the limit of making our current global economic system work any longer. The only hope of partial salvation would seem to be if core parts of the world economy can be made to work in a more separate fashion for at least a few more years. In fact, oil and other fossil fuel production may continue, but for each country’s own use, with very limited trade.
There are likely to be big differences among economies around the world. For example, hunter-gathering may work for a few people, with the right skills, in some parts of the world. At the same time, more modern economies may exist elsewhere.
The new economy will have far fewer people and far less complexity. Each country can be expected to have its own currency, but this currency will likely be used only on a limited range of locally produced goods. Speculation in asset prices will no longer be a source of wealth.
It will be a very different world!
New York warns of children’s illness linked to Covid-19 after three deaths
State reports 73 cases of children falling severely ill with toxic shock-like reaction that has symptoms similar to Kawasaki disease
The deaths of three children in New York of inflammatory complications possibly linked to Covid-19 has prompted Andrew Cuomo, the state’s governor, to warn of “an entirely different chapter” of a disease that had been believed to cause only mild symptoms in children.
The governor reported the first death, of a five-year old boy, on Friday. At his morning press conference on Saturday, Cuomo raised the number of fatalities to three, after the death of a seven-year-old and a teenager.
“The illness has taken the lives of three young New Yorkers,” Cuomo said. “This is new. This is developing.”
FEAR PANIC FEAR PANIC (always good to focus on the children)
https://democriticreviews.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/bravo.gif
At least 3 New York children have died from a mysterious, possibly coronavirus-related illness…
Breaking: two more NY children were run over by a bus today. It is suspected the driver had a corona virus related illness. (PS: just kidding)
For some perspective, infant mortality stood at a minimum 50% for all of recorded history -Cuomo is a politician, he clearly sees profit in this shameless and tasteless scare-mongering.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1244342772783394822
Amazing … this is happening all over the place yet the normies are still buying in … hahaha…
This is OUTSTANDING
https://twitter.com/i/status/1246111849667493888
If I were to post all the videos we’d hit 5000 posts on this article…
https://twitter.com/hashtag/filmyourhospitals?lang=en
https://twitter.com/i/status/1249158135832510467
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWCfwMIWkAA0jSj?format=png&name=900×900
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWHlhV_WsAA67CY?format=jpg&name=small
https://twitter.com/i/status/1257081273761148928
TORONTO — The Emergency Department is usually one of the busiest areas of any hospital, but now many ERs are full of empty beds, as patients with ailments and injuries unrelated to coronavirus are avoiding hospitals due to pandemic fears.
“It’s so strange to walk through an emergency room with so many empty beds,” Dr. Gaurav Puri of Southlake Regional Health Centre in Newmarket told CTV News.
“Here there are no wheelchairs and all of our rooms are empty.”
There has been a 30- to 40-per-cent drop in patients in many ERs in Canada.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/all-of-our-rooms-are-empty-hospital-ers-vacant-during-pandemic-1.4918208
Do you think its because our general smash-up roller derby way of life is on blocks for now?
There is that … but then there is the fact that there just are not overwhelming cases of Covid…
It’s all fa.ke.
Bali and Ethiopia were supposed to be overwhelmed because they allowed Wuhan flights in … they are not
https://twitter.com/i/status/1256335325162397697
So….. I just called the biggest hospital in Bali http://sanglahhospitalbali.com/v3/ (good chance to practice my Bhasa Indonesian and burn up a few minutes of the lockdown)
They have ‘a room’ for Covid patients that is separate from the main ER area….
When I asked if there were many Covid patients the person refused to answer saying we are not allowed to say. He also asked why I was asking…. to which I responded my son has sprained his ankle and I don’t want to be exposed if we go there.
I said so there are not so many Covid patients since there is just a room for them?
Yes there are not that many.
Hmmmm…… what do you reckon normies????
Perhaps it’s the epidemiologists we should suspend from the street lamps first? With their erroneous models and predictions on a placard around their necks?
And yet many of them are still preaching the gospel of perpetual lock-downs ‘until the vaccine comes’! Wholly blind to the economic destruction which is being wreaked.
They scent endless research grants, no doubt; and it must be nice to be important and directing policy for once in their dim and unglamorous little lives.
They are aware — and they know that the lockdowns are futile…
I have spoken to a number of them and they all are aware of the implications — but they are not policy advisors… they have absolutely no idea why the policy advisors are lying. But they know it must be something very big because collapsing the global economy is not a minor issue.
Recall the two US doctors also suggested was not right with this situation — but they refused to speculate.
Gestapo action https://freehk.live/
I am addicted to these feeds… I don’t want to miss a mall being burned down or a cop being set on fire….
Between that and Flight Radar I’ve got these lockdowns beat!
If there are protests in the USA and they get aggressive a lot of protesters will die. Why? Its very simple the courts have ruled law enforcement shoots are justified if the officer feels his life is in danger. If I had a raging mob pressing up against me I would feel like my life was endangered. Add to that the media seems to regard all lock downs as absolutely justified. There will not be any hue and cry. If you have ten officers one is going to flip the safety off if it gets real. The very first Molotov for sure. The unspoken rule in law enforcement is if one guy shoots they all shoot.
There is something else also. Im pretty sure that the courts would rule that any close encounter with anyone could be lethal in liu of cv19. Could be they dont know. Just like they dont know if that guy with the knife is going to try to stab them so they shoot him. In effect every human supposedly has the potential capability to kill another just by being within six feet. Now everybody is by default armed with an invisible weapon. That means law enforcement has the legal green light and even responsibility to end that threat including deadly force.
They cant give verbal command ie “drop the knife”. There is no “drop the rona”. This means by default anyone not openly displaying a clean test certification or vaccination could be considered a lethal threat if they were within six feet of someone OR had the capability of moving within six feet of someone before they were stopped. How this would play out against the right to peaceably to assemble is unknown. Law enforcement trains to keep themselves safe. For the most part they follow their training.
Good point:
“Now everybody is by default armed with an invisible weapon. That means law enforcement has the legal green light and even responsibility to end that threat including deadly force.”
The world economy is on the precipice of its worst crisis since World War II. As the newly updated Brookings-FT TIGER (Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery) makes clear, economic activity, financial markets, and private-sector confidence are all cratering. And if international cooperation remains at its current level, a far more severe collapse is yet to come.
To be sure, the current extraordinarily sharp downturn could prove to be relatively brief, with economic activity snapping back to previous levels once the COVID-19 contagion curve is flattened. But there is good reason to worry that the world economy is heading into a deep, protracted recession. Much will depend on the pandemic’s trajectory and whether policymakers’ responses are sufficient to contain the damage while rebuilding consumer and business confidence.
https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/anatomy-of-the-coronavirus-collapse/
“But there is good reason to worry that the world economy is heading into a deep, protracted recession.”
Gotta love a good bucket load dose of bullsh*t and spin. It’s NOT a recession. It’s a DEPRESSION. It’s the same BS we were spoon fed in 2008-09 calling it the Great Recession. It was a Global meltdown aka Depression that was suspended by The Fed printing Trillions of dollars to stop the bleeding. They are doing it again and already you can clearly see that it know longer works.
I was hoping for third time lucky
but it looks like this is it
we are all the third world now
I’d watch this interview — ‘when they relax the controls the virus flares back up’
Lockdowns are not going to happen.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/the-u-s-economic-crisis-is-even-worse-than-it-appears-heres-what-government-can-do
Lockdowns are not going to end…
Of course not !
It doesn’t matter anymore as the damage has already been done to the eCONomy.
https://www.onlygfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/true-stamp-4.png
This PBS article says,
No, it is not true that “obviously we have to avoid it.” There are a lot of other end points besides vaccine or a therapy. Economic collapse is one such end point. War is another.
It isn’t what you don’t know that hurts you. It is what you think you know for sure that is wrong that will hurt you.
However, a public health expert has suggested the latest figures on Covid-19 provided no evidence that the country was ready to move to level 2.
There were no new cases on two days during the week, but there have been four announced this weekend, with two confirmed cases reported today.
University of Otago epidemiologist Michael Baker said the country could use a few more weeks under level 3.
“People have lost their livelihoods over this, and we have to just make it worthwhile. And that means keeping your physical distance for a few more weeks, until we have a nice, clear patch of no infections. And then the big prize of that effort is that we can go back to life almost as normal.”
Baker said people would need to be extra vigilant in a lower alert level, whenever it went ahead.
He also said a mask should be mandatory for all public transport as a key line of defence.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/416300/covid-19-decision-looms-on-moving-to-alert-level-two
OH so now maks are good… how amazing….
Mike does not seem to get that 0 + tests will not mean 0 infections…. it means 0 people tested positive.
Of course he knows… yet…. people are going to be livid if they get 3 more weeks of this …
So maybe they will be forced to unlock — cases will increase …and then … we enter the final phase — permanent lockdown and starvation soon after
He clearly feels insulated from the consequences of these policies, that he will be paid regardless of the loss of livelihood which so many have and will suffer and about which he is so complacent, like Tim Morgan.
Further lock-downs can only intensify the damage to the point that mortality rates from COVID will be utterly irrelevant to most people.
Disgusting human being.
I’ve emailed him calling him out on this and telling him that all his policy advice has accomplished is that it has destroyed the NZ economy and ruined hundreds of thousands of lives.
Wanna bet I don’t get a response….
Xabier, are you getting less tolerant of Tim’s views?
The current hunger crisis in the US, in photos
https://www.vox.com/2020/5/9/21251895/food-banks-lines-pandemic
Quiz Time for the Normies…
CBS was caught faking Covid queues at a medical clinic…. they subsequently edited out the fake footage from the online version and admitted it was fake — but claim the clinic was the one who faked the queues forcing some of their staff to pretend to be patients….the hospital CEO has rejected that assertion.
So Normies….
1. Do you think this is a substantial story? Remember – we are collapsing the global economy because of Covid yet here we have the MSM faking a Covid story. Surely they could have found a hospital that was overwhelmed and not had to fake it….
2. If you think this is a substantial story then why do you think other MSM outlets are not covering it? Surely this is a story of interest… particularly when ‘fake news’ is all the rage.
Next question for the normies will involve how civilizations collapsed due to G W…. when G W did not exist because we did not burn fossil fuels up until recently….. take a nap first because that will help you think more clearly…
normies gonna norm
they will NEVER accept reality
you are banging your head against a brick wall
Taunting normies might be considered unsporting…..
https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2020/05/09/usda-to-purchase-470-million-in-excess-food-from-farmers-deliver-to-needy/
“The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced this week that it would be purchasing $470 million in excess food from farmers to deliver to those in need.”
perhaps this will become a continuing government program…
https://www.wsj.com/articles/company-layoffs-snowball-as-recovery-appears-elusive-11589040771
“Corporate America unveiled another wave of job cuts and warned of additional reductions, as executives signal they are resigned to a lengthy coronavirus-induced economic downturn…
MGM Resorts International warned that some of the 63,000 employees it has furloughed may be let go permanently starting in August.”
bingo…
though “some of” and “may be let go” is just corporate PR… many/most of these employees are definitely never going to get their jobs back…
I could add this here…
President Trump wanted to reopen America on Sunday April 12…
in retrospect, that would have been great…
too bad that the vast majority of loud voices and lower government “leaders” were totally opposed…
it’s too late now…
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/as-deaths-mount-trump-tries-to-convince-americans-it-s-safe-to-inch-back-to-normal/ar-BB13QL8U
“As deaths mount, Trump tries to convince Americans it’s safe to inch back to normal”
63,000 … that’s a hefty number…. permanent…
https://nextshark.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Good-News-Everyone.gif
Well maybe not…. if you believe that humans have been a good thing for the planet….
!!! I love humans !!!
!!!! I love spaaaace foooorce !!!!
blows big raspberry
C T G commenting a couple of pages back:
“Seriously today I was walking around and seeing the lines form at the entrance of supermarkets. By controlling the number of customers, it is just not possible to cover the operating costs. Normally it is crowded with hundreds of customers jostling around. Now, only 40 at any point of time, I am hard press to believe it will make any money.”
thanks… I also see this at the supermarkets where I shop…
I see this in a different light:
shoppers (including me) have to deal with a more difficult shopping experience every time… the lines, the slower checkout (like sanitation before/after each customer) etc…
so I think shoppers (like me) are going to the stores less frequently and are buying more per visit… I don’t think people are eating less, unless their money is becoming short…
if anything, with restaurants mostly closed, supermarkets should be having increased sales… overall, I don’t see why supermarkets would be making less money…
demand has crashed for many/most things except food…
which is good for these times, because that means a bigger flow of money into the food industry which will help to keep this essential industry going…
let non-essential industries fail… it gives essential industries a better chance of continuing…
which is the big picture…
Here in the sticks in the Land of the Rising Sun, all our supermarkets, butchers, bakers, fishmongers and greengrocers are operating normally and are well stocked with everything. I haven’t seen any queues or anybody fighting over toilet rolls. However, open restaurants, cafés and bars are thin on the ground. Also, Internet shopping is doing a brisk trade. So far, I haven’t found anything difficult to buy. Last week Rakuten limited me to five packets of L-size cowhide dental gum sticks (15 sticks in a packet) from China for the labrador, when I tried to order six. And this week the Co-op delivery service is limiting customers to one bunch of Philippine bananas.
As you noted, demand has crashed for many things except food, to which I would add DIY and gardening goods in my area. The home centers are doing a roaring trade as many people have time on their hands now that they are freed from the usual social trivia thanks to the canceling of all kinds of events and meetings.
Whether by accident or design, it certainly seems that “non-essential” industries are being selectively suppressed, such as wining & dining, movie theaters, events of all kinds, travel, hotels, airlines, etc. All the businesses that have been suppressed seem to have been closed on the basis of reducing physical contact to prevent the spread of COVID-19. It’s debatable whether this strategy is going to make a big difference to the pandemic, but the restrictions are justifiable providing you accept that this is the case.
In Japan, our state of emergency was originally set to lapse on May 6, but it has since been extended to May 31. If the emergency ends then and the baseball season starts in June, I think we have a chance of moving to some kind of quasi-normal life. But if it’s extended into June, I will be leaning towards putting Fast Eddy’s Controlled Demolition by Permanent Lockdown Theory up there with Einstein’s Theory of Relativity and Max Planck’s Quantum Theory and I will rate his IQ at 8000.
https://i.redd.it/trycnbzmy0m41.jpg
Great image
https://democriticreviews.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/bravo.gif
My relatives have flights booked for late july early august and I’m wondering if they will be able to travel at all even by then. We’re talking UK to spain on ryanair. Two week quarantines at either end would be intolerable for a two week visit so I imagine it will all be cancelled with no refund. Maybe some vouchers. Alternatively… passengers might be prechecked and loaded like radioactive baggage with temp checks on and off and be allowed on their way. But all that is a couple of months away which is an eternity in these times.
I would challenge eddies theory by presuming there would be an uprising like you have never seen in every country that tried to maintain full lockdown ever again. When people have nothing to lose… they lose it. No amount of cops and city guards can withstand barbarian attack for that long.
I’m hoping there will be unrisings… I am a bit of an adrenaline junkie… I can sit for hours watching live feeds of riots….
70% of Americans apparently support the lockdowns so it will be a David (some average people who want to work) vs Goliath (lots of average scared people who prefer to starve rather than work and die from wuhan — supporting the US military)….
Here in NZ I suspect most people support the lockdowns… even if they are on welfare… fear is powerful…
No matter how far they push these lockdowns I won’t be participating in any rebellions.
I want to be around when the power goes off
What would one have to do to create an all out war on OFW — normies vs the few?
I think going back to wolfs forum to have ur posts deleted would do it. 🙂
Funny you should mention that … he wrote something about Wall St getting bailed out – again.
And I pointed out that it’s not only WS getting bailed out…. he allowed that but then questioned the source…
So I think posted from the Calpers site that they had 200B in the stock market …. he of course refused to publish that.
Wolf should change his site to The German Wan ker .com….. he definitely has a little N,azi in him
He is also threatened by the 700IQ…. many people are — most are too imbecilic to recognize the implications of a 700IQ….
I am impatiently awaiting the creation of the VIP-OFW…
the Abnormies could disappear there with all of their tin foil…
hurry up… get it done… 😉
Unlike Herr Wolf or certain Arch Druids I could mention, Gail gracefully tries to allow diversity of opinion, regardless of whether she agrees with the content of comments. She even allows commenters to insult her and replies to criticism politely, and rarely deletes anything. But this isn’t good enough for some people. They won’t be happy until every comment is in accord with their own views or prejudices. Differences of opinion are anathema to them. 🙂
I’m fine with being disagreed with, but some of the posts here are like monkeys flinging poo. In general, uncurated comments sections tend to attract the worst sort of posters (e.g. trolls and extremists), and crowd out intelligent discussion.
what do have against monkeys?
are you an anti-simian supremecist?
my hairy cousin would like to know
beidawei – if it makes you feel better I usually filter ‘beidawei’ and hit delete … particularly when there is a build up of mostly useless comments.
yes the druid allows very little descent. He will eat his words soon enough.
Regarding pro-mask material, Vanity Fair has an article called If 80% of Americans Wore Masks, COVID-19 Infections Would Plummet, New Study Says
Zerohedge has a similar article, but it includes a video by the researcher coming to the conclusion that masks are very helpful.
Why Shut Down? COVID-19 Infections Would Plummet If 80% Of Americans Just Wore Masks According To Study
https://youtu.be/yfeW2l8G_W4
Like in Hong Kong….
Notice how many people want their current economy too look more like Sweden’s without any lockdowns. However no-one seems to want to mention exactly what is happening in Sweden!! The economy is going down, restaurant customers down by 70%, cinemas down by 90%, GDP down by as much as the rest of Europe, trade down, unemployment up etc.
i wonder how many of the con.spiracy theorists have thought that all the lockdowns are just a smoke and mirror trick for economies failing everywhere anyway. At least with lockdowns people can blame the government, instead of the real culprit of an industrial civilization that was in terminal decline from over a decade ago. Coronavirus being just a catalyst no matter what governments did.
The lockdowns seem to be a good scapegoat, with the possibility of everything returning to normal afterwards (as per media assumptions/stories). I’m stunned at the number of so called critical thinking people that assume the lockdowns were the bad/poor aspect of government responses.
Perhaps many even here at OFW are falling for the latest marketing hype of ‘lockdowns are bad’, instead of the big picture in that Coronavirus (or something else) was just going to be a catalyst that coll-apsed the system, that was heading down by drowning in debt and expensive energy production anyway..
Of course it’s going down … the global economy is in a Great Depression — Sweden is not immune to the impacts of that.
or more likely de-population has now begun in earnest as collapse is baked in the cake according to my research by 2020 oil consumption will have dropped to 50 million barrels a day so the elders knew this and had a plan, i had read a statement made by some oil official in
saudi arabia many years ago on the internet i believe his name was baktiahri but i may have the spelling wrong so evidence cannot be provided i am just going by what i remember the elders stated their intentions in the kissinger report
He was Iranian, a very nice man.
Dennis L.
thanks, Hide away…
“I’m stunned at the number of so called critical thinking people that assume the lockdowns were the bad/poor aspect of government responses.”
okay, I do respect your opinion, but…
how do you logically place the original lockdown by the Commmunists in China into the overall picture of the copycat lockdowns in the so-called democratic West?
were the Commmunists in collusion with every other government?
though I could be misunderstanding your view…
a theorry should have some internal consistency…
There is no collusion between governments at all, mostly a lot of erratic one off behavior, copy cat what looked to be working somewhere else. Most people think there is a grand plan, it fits in nicely with all the cons.piracy theorys.
The scariest thinking is that there is no plan at all, those in charge of countries are just making it up as they go along, which is much closer to the reality. There is no coordination, no collusion, it has been every country for themselves with politicians trying to save their own skin by doing something that looks like it might work. They saw what China did and had the thought of ‘let’s do that’, not knowing of anything else they could do, that would ‘save’ their political careers.
As Gail has been saying for years, our industrial civilization is a self organized energy dissipative system. We reached a point in 2005 where conventional oil peaked, but our IC continued on with massive pulling forward of resource use with debt borrowed from the future. All of us here at this site knew it could not continue forever, it was all going to coll.apse at some point, exactly how none of us knew.
Anything that collapses does so because the force of nature (gravity for physical features) becomes too much for the forces holding it up and building it. Think of a tree, sitting on the edge of a cliff, being undermined by the force of erosion and gravity. It can stand for decades or centuries, unless something comes along and puts too much pressure on a part of it, that makes it coll.apse down the cliff.
Our industrial civilization acts in mostly the same way. Despite the ongoing charade of non conventional oil, more expensive to produce coal, gas, renewables etc, the system without any outside catalyst rolled on and on, seemingly endless, all the doo.msayers being wrong. Then along comes something from left field, in this case a virus that changed the way people think, lockdown or no lockdown and the lie that was our current IC comes tumbling down. It will probably take years to fully play out as rescue after rescue will be tried, but mainstream economics will never realise or acknowledge the problem was lack of net energy growth all along.
excellent… thanks for your reply…
https://privacysos.org/blog/slavery-institutional-racism-and-the-development-of-state-surveillance-as-a-response-to-resistance/?fbclid=IwAR0I-yHkSAkIG-U0sHgUlHgeSJUYBFHQeEmKzS9x6ax2lfyigYQO_JEnRNY
From July 2014. So the issue has been around for a while.
So sorry Gail. This is what I meant to post! Kinda long though.
This video seems to be well worth watching. I have not yet had a chance to listen to all of it yet, however. The system we are dealing with seems to be very much like a Global Health Mafia Protection Racket, run by many big foundations, including the “Global Preparedness Monitoring Board.” World leaders seem to be reading from same script.
Somehow, this story reminds me of the story of the growing opioid addiction problem, sponsored by the manufacturers of the pills that were sold in huge quantities.
God bless you Gail Tverberg!!
and happy mother’s day!
This is pretty cool:
https://interactives.stuff.co.nz/2020/05/high-country-farming-vanishing-lands/
http://www.dunstandowns.co.nz/library/slides/slide4.jpg
New Zealand can feed at least a few people mutton and provide wool for clothing.
Maoris, in their tribal days, were great cannibals – another sustainable option which could be revived perhaps?
They are badly outnumbered and most are obese and diabetes riddled… giving new meaning to Once Were Warriors.
my first thought was ‘what a well organized flock of sheep’. then i saw the three border collies off to the left. might be another one in the distance to the right.
just reminds me of humans
are they police dogs?
too small for humans, their specialty is sheep, goats, geese and ducks. for humans, i’d recommend German shepards or Australian cattle dogs (bred for cattle herding, obviously).
giesek is the WHO scientist I have corresponded with…. he suggested this in an email two weeks ago…
Odd that the MSM here is now fully on board with this … keep in mind their roll is not to inform it is to control what you think…
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12330725
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121463027/coronavirus-expert-says-it-may-be-a-decade-before-nz-can-stop-isolating-arrivals
https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/nz-faces-years-quarantines-swedish-expert-says
It seems like your prime minister will figure out that tax revenue will dry up very quickly with her plan.
Proof!
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fbec343e6128f48da381cf302d0d0f3326247cdbcfcf69179b29e8419a74a9a7.jpg
Evidence (sarc)
the Abnormies are now rushing out to buy more tin foil…
forget the TP, gotta get more TF…
“Indeed, astonishingly, Russia’s reserves have actually increased this year, by just over US$7 billion from US$562.3 billion, as of January 1. The reserves fell slightly from US$570.3 billion in February to US$563.4 billion in March, but, amazingly, then grew again in April to the current US$569.7 billion.”
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/488228-russia-ruble-oil-price-shocks/
thanks…
I read/skimmed it and a basic conclusion:
Russia is not going to go down without a fightt…
if IC crashes, they might be the last country standing…
perhaps with a quasi bAU…
even russia has international supply chains
i wonder how many materials, spare parts, and whatnot are imported
but yes they do have their own national internet for what it’s worth
Bolsonaro Vows to Invite Up to 3,000 People to BBQ Party Amid Record High COVID-19 Deaths in Brazil
https://sputniknews.com/latam/202005091079257554-bolsonaro-vows-to-invite-up-to-3000-people-to-bbq-party-amid-record-high-covid-19-deaths-in-brazil/
He just cacelled it
Warmer weather does NOT stop coronavirus spreading: Two separate studies dash hopes of killer infection dying out in summer
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8303197/Warmer-weather-does-NOT-kill-coronavirus-Two-separate-studies-dash-hopes-summer.html
“‘Even though high temperatures and humidity can moderately reduce the transmission rates of coronavirus, the pandemic is not likely to diminish solely due to summer weather,’ Rahmandad said in an MIT news release. “
but sunlight does
did they leave that out?
NZ faces years of quarantines, Swedish expert says
https://www.odt.co.nz/star-news/star-national/nz-faces-years-quarantines-swedish-expert-says
“”Our most important task is not to stop spread, which is all but futile, but to concentrate on giving the unfortunate victims optimal care,” he added.”
Are they going to quarantine all the goods coming in? What about contact among dock workers? Airline cargo handlers?
Your body is a temple. Enjoy it. Love it. Cherish it. You do not own it. Ownership is for property. Your body is not property. You cant own yourself. The idea of having to own your body is profane. Any argument or action that would separate your body from you let alone allow claims on it is a profane argument. That is self evident.
I make this statement without fear. I choose to not indulge in fear. I choose to love myself and all the other beautiful people in the world. Their faces are beautiful. I acknowledge their beauty. I acknowledge the beauty of nature and the planet.
A temple dedicated to Shiva i would say. Being Shiva one of the avatars of Entropia, the greek goddess-mother. 🙂
A possible experiment in real time at scale:
We have drastically reduced perhaps the majority of emissions that cause anthropomorphic climate change. We are also coming up on a solar minimum, the Maunder minimum lasted for about 70 years and was called the “Little Ice age.” A cherry picked quote from Wikipedia, “The prolonged cold, dry periods brought drought upon many European communities, resulting in poor crop growth, poor livestock survival, and increased activity of pathogens and disease vectors.”
This little excursion in time wasting was brought on by noting it is 35 degrees F here today.
We have a global experiment, doing exactly what Greta suggested, next year we may have better data. Interesting times in which we live.
Dennis L.
We had snow last night here in southern New York State. It never does that in May.
Did I mention that g w destroyed multiple civilizations and communities long before we burned any coal?
I didn’t notice any SDR greenies addressing that fly in their ointment.
Does that mean the SDRs have come to their senses and now accept that Al Gore was playing them?
Art Berman has an interesting post out:
Why the Renewable Rocket Has Failed to Launch
This is an except:
If renewables really provided greater value, the rocket would quickly launch. The problem with renewables is that they don’t provide the same value as fossil fuels. They also don’t work in today’s devices.
I am not sure I would describe renewable electricity problem as an energy density problem. Intermittent electricity isn’t useful without batteries or a subsidized pricing system. It has very little “value.”
If I have a solar system, say to mill wheat(could be a windmill), my life will be better than the person without such a device assuming it covers taxes, depreciation, etc. History would suggest it does that.
If I have some solar panels, that will make my life easier than one without them.
Oil appears to be finished for whatever reason. Time to move on, or at this point begin moving on as preparation takes time and we don’t have twenty years per Hirsch.
Dennis L.
Gail,
This article is more thorough. 19 pages plus endnotes. I can’t remember where I found this,and don’t know if it has been posted here .
file:///home/chronos/u-ffa7dcd8b2b43e3cde6ce9531ab395b3bb4ab7e6/MyFiles/Downloads/R-0319-MM%20(1).pdf
The title is ‘The” New energy economy”: an exercise in magical thinking’ by Mark Mills
This is a better link for The New energy economy: an exercise in magical thinking,” by Mark Mills.
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Another useless ‘expert’ that fails too look at pumped seawater storage as a solution for the intermittency problems of solar and wind.
Notice no-one comes out and states that creating just a 20 metre high earth dam, 70-100 metres above sea level, using the sea itself as the lower reservoir, could store all the energy required. Instead they always look at batteries as a non possible solution.
If ‘experts’ are not prepared too look at the most viable options, they are not ‘experts’ that should be listened to at all.
If you are interested in that sort of thing this is your guy – he evaluates every option:
http://euanmearns.com/the-seawater-pumped-hydro-potential-of-the-world/
Well he’s a serious guy so I dont think he evaluates fairy farts as an energy source
I pulled Euan up on missing out on the potential sites in Australia in his analysis, but the post in the comments was moderated, because someone didn’t want to have that discussion.
In just the Nullarbor Plain by itself, there is the potential for over 1,400Twh of electrical storage. However this sort of capacity does not suit people’s agenda that want to debunk it, so it is ignored. There are plenty of other large sites in Australia suitable for both seawater storage and high levels of consistent renewable energy.
All probably moot now that we have had the trigger to coll.apse.
The entire concept is ridiculous to begin with.
If if this were feasible economically it would not help a single bit.
We have not been finding any more cheap to produce oil for two decades….
Social distancing is extremely harmful to business that has walk-in clients like retail and food/beverages. Malaysia was released from lockdown. Stores running at half capacities (which is happening worldwide) will not work. Efficiency and economies of scale is required. This is like pregnancy; you cannot be a little pregnant. The business either operates normally or it closes down. Cashflow is very important.
I am not really sure if the politicians the scale of the disaster that is unfolding when the economies open up. Perhaps in another few months, if nothing changes.(likely), then the number of shuttered business will be really dramatic.
Seriously today I was walking around and seeing the lines form at the entrance of supermarkets. By controlling the number of customers, it is just not possible to cover the operating costs. Normally it is crowded with hundreds of customers jostling around. Now, only 40 at any point of time, I am hard press to believe it will make any money.
Seriously politicians asking airlines to carry 50% load? (Not to mention that people choose not to fly too). I think this is the next wave of disaster after (1)virus, (2)lockdown, (3)unemployment. The businesses that think they can survive but could not. That is going to be a huge number in the coming months.
The changes being proposed are horribly inefficient. I would agree. It is not possible to operate a company that way.
That’s the plan!
I went to the main square here today for the first time in 2 months – wonderful weather – curious to see how things were: at the main shop, a supermarket, there was not one person standing in lin – , on a Saturday! It is usually heaving with customers.
Are they all 1/ Shopping online, 2/ Avoiding it because they hate standing around and assume everyone would be there, or 3/ Scared witless by the news?
Generally, only idiot politicians and epidemiologists would ever believe that a business can function and be viable at less than 100% potential capacity.
Maybe this is a plot by Amazon to drive everyone to online shopping!!!
Hey Norm – waddya think???? (or not)
The logistics of social distancing are impossible….we needed every little nook and cranny of the Global Economy to keep the party going for a little while longer, which was only going to last a few years anyway (my guess is we had 3-5 years to go before total collapse)…with this added to the fold of the Global Economy tells me we don’t see Jan 1, 2021….Good-bye IC, good-bye humans..
Here in the news they said it is estimated that 236M businesses will shutter their doors because of Covid-19….how many hundreds of millions, to not say billions of jobs does that represent?? What will all these people do….what will the rest do, with the multiplier effect of those jobs acting as a divisor effect???
Do rent costs reduced by half
Do utility costs reduce by half
Do staffing costs reduce by half
Do pension and medical contributions reduce by half
Do other operating costs reduce by half
Of course not — this situation guarantees bankruptcy.
Of course governments are aware of this — if they were not then every business in the country would quickly make them aware of it — that would be just prior to dumping their staff onto welfare as they declare bankruptcy
It is very obvious what is going on here — it is not stooopidity or corruption — or as many SDRs are telling me ‘the media is making money off of this’ Does anyone think that the people who run the world would allow the MSM and maybe a few drug companies to flatten their empire — to make a few dollars? BTW – the media is LOSING money.
This is a planned demolition
Careful with that planned demolition talk. I don’t think you’re prepared to call into question the expertise of credentialed civil engineers who say the structures collapsed because of fire damage.
The establishment complains about rumors being spread while they spread rumors themselves
https://www.zmescience.com/medicine/coronavirus-may-not-be-an-std-semen-from-covid-19-positive-men-doesnt-contain-the-virus/
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-mens-semen-survivors-sexual-transmission-covid-19/\
the findings of a non-peer reviewed study from a country we are bipolar towards is being repeated on msm.
Trump says covid comes from the lab, contradicting Fauci. Does he will fight the Elders + the Chinese? A brave man, or a populist, as you wish
the russians will offer up a definitive cure
which means lockdowns and spacing won’t make any sense anymore
and the trumpo admin will officially blow the whistle on the vast fakery of data from all camps
or so i have heard
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2019/06/16/israel-names-small-golan-heights-settlement-after-donald-trump/1473575001/
Global report: Madrid told not to ease lockdown as Italy warns rule-breakers
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/08/global-report-spain-and-italy-grapple-with-how-to-end-covid-19-lockdown
Spain, which has been under one of Europe’s strictest lockdowns, is easing its way out in four phases, aiming to reach “a new normality” by late June. In a sign of life starting to return to normal, beaches in Barcelona opened for a few hours, from 6am to 10am, on Friday to allow people to swim and jog under police supervision.
haha… ya slowly returning to normal… if normal is a prison camp.
Very obviously there is no intention to return to normal…
The police and army presence is certainly very intrusive in Spain, despite it being a ‘socialist progressive’ government. The fines are big and without appeal. Legislation brought in by the ultra-Conservatives has not been repealed.
By way of contrast, I have not see even one police officer here in the last 2 months, even just driving through to randomly check up on people, and not one even at the main park in town yesterday, where everyone was complying with the rules.
And yet there were MSM headlines before the weekend: ‘Police fear they may not be able to control behaviour’ due to the sunny weather!
One for Court TV
https://news.yahoo.com/virginia-man-faked-own-death-221800007.html
Unemployed Virginia man Russell Louis Geyer was so determined to hide his assets in bankruptcy proceedings, he even threw his own wife under the bus—duping her into handing over $70,000 and using her email address to inform an attorney he was dead.
Geyer, 50, pleaded guilty on Wednesday to contempt of court, bankruptcy fraud, wire fraud, and aggravated identity fraud. He faces up to life in prison.
“In an effort to game the bankruptcy system, Mr. Geyer devised a made-for-TV plot that ultimately collapsed under its own weight,” U.S. Attorney Thomas Cullen said in a statement
Geyer and his wife, Patricia Sue Geyer, from Saltville, filed for voluntary bankruptcy in late 2018, listing liabilities of $532,583.80, according to court documents.
They were behind on payments for three of their four vehicles, for both their home and a rental property they owned, and for most of their furniture. They hadn’t paid electricity bills, bank overdrafts, credit card bills, and dozens of medical bills, and more than 50 creditors were chasing them for everything from their 65-inch TV to their Kawasaki ZX1000 motorbike.
Now we know the new paradigm….this ain’t going to be pretty folks..
We all can’t be Banksters or Wall Street High rollers that get a bailout ever time ….
These people should be treated as heroes…they were doing everything MSM said they should do….lots of debt fueled consumption!
Neel Kashkari is the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis:
“The official unemployment rate is about 14.7 percent, but if you dig below the numbers, I think it’s really around 22 percent or 23 percent, when you consider the tens of millions who have lost their jobs.
“And by the way, that data is now a couple weeks’ old. It’s probably even higher than that. A couple months ago, I was optimistic, I was hopeful that maybe we’d have a V-shaped recovery, shut things down, clamp down on the virus, and then have a quick recovery…”
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/the-u-s-economic-crisis-is-even-worse-than-it-appears-heres-what-government-can-do
The man said..”.A couple months ago, I was optimistic, I was hopeful that maybe we’d have a V-shaped recovery, ”
We need a tried and true, tested LEADER….back that saved us last time of the crisis!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PzMO-hIv9AM
Please Michelle…run for office…
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4ZNWYqDU948
We need a mircle
A man said that? Are you sure it wasn’t some type of inanimate sponge?
This man from Harry’s post
A couple months ago, I was optimistic, I was hopeful that maybe we’d have a V-shaped recovery.
Neel Kashkari is the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
We need Obamie Hope and Change…go Michelle!
We need a president that can make us a lot of promises while he and other government officials can’t do anything but give out welfare checks.
Did I mention one of the most popular cafes in the area https://arrowtownhouse.com/activities/the-chop-shop-food-merchants/ told me yesterday they get virtually 0 food orders during the week and maybe 30 per day on weekends?
They won’t even be covering staff costs on that…
There will be no V recovery. I am looking forward to L2 — I will be heading into QT next Saturday to survey how many outlets actually re-open…
G3T the MORRON has done such a wonderful job — so says the MSM — but they fail to mention that Australia never went further than L2 — and the infections per 100k there are pretty much the same as in NZ….
Well done G3T…. looking forward to the L4 soon after the L2 when infections ramp up … I may just go lick a few railings and help spread this….
Excellent. If we factor in all the people who were not being counted pre covid then it’s probably 40% (at least)
“Real estate and investment firm Colony Capital Inc said on Friday its portfolio companies had defaulted on $3.2 billion of debt secured by hotels and healthcare-related properties.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-colony-capital-loans/colony-capital-reports-3-2-billion-defaults-on-portfolio-loans-idUSKBN22K2IN
“Stage Stores, which operates department store brands in predominantly rural areas and small and midsized markets, is preparing for a bankruptcy filing that could come as soon as next week, people familiar with the situation tell CNBC.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/08/stage-stores-prepares-for-bankruptcy-filing.html
“Rumors have floated for weeks that beleaguered department-store-chain J.C. Penney (JCP) – Get Report is headed for bankruptcy, and now it looks like the rumors may be coming to fruition.”
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/jc-penney-bankruptcy-filing-report
It looks like malls will lose most of their tenants. What does one do with all of the vacant real estate?
MALLS
Some market housing, some government housing, some basic clothing places (with far fewer choices than now). Maybe police sub stations, roof gardens, places to eat very local, place to walk as we do now. No AC. Knock openings in walls for cross ventilation. These places will be demonstration for how to have some class on 80% less fuel. Knock holes in the ceiling to provide some 2 story spaces. It has to be a government scheme–partnering with business with the government in control. Th profit motive doesn’t belong in this at all.
Re watch The Road… for ideas…. mostly they just end up empty and collapsing…
Some might be used as holding pens for the humans before they get butchered and sold… veal will be a very big deal.
They would probably become slums and burn down, be taken over by gangs. Insulation must be dreadful, too.
Kunstler identified the flat rooves as a big eventual failure point.
They’ve had flat roofs in the US Southwest for centuries. They must work to some extent. And if you include police and fire substation, and figure out a supply chain for it all, I’m not certain that it would have to degenerate to a slum. Federal government and military oversight for some time too. TPTB night have used (or set up) COVID to knock down the economy to a much lower level, and if we don’t want to die just yet, we have no choice but to use (organize) what’s left now with slightly more commonsense. There’s no other basic problem than public ignorance, apathy, division and stew pea DT. (Since I do 5 minutes of repair most days, I’ve yet to see why any building must collapse.) Or do people prefer to sit on their ass and wait for some outside force to help them?
Hopefully they liquidate… that would mean some big numbers hit the streets….
JC Penney Number of Employees Analysis
The company was founded in 1902 and is based in Plano, Texas. JC Penney operates under Department Stores classification in USA and is traded on BATS Exchange. It employs 90000 people.
Save the Environment – End Humans…. shall I troll Geeeta with that???
The original JC Penney store in Kemmerer Wyoming can still be toured.
Unless they can sell tickets to tourists, of which there will no longer be any, it will go away too.
Every bankruptcy is music to Geeeeta’s ears…. FE’s too… but for a different reason.
Good good good… we need more of that to meet my goal.
“The number of actively-operating oil rigs in the United States has fallen beneath lows not seen since the financial crisis as drillers cut back on activity after a plunge in demand for crude forced by the coronavirus pandemic.
“U.S. oil rigs, as measured by oil services firm Baker Hughes, fell by 33 this week to 292. The number previously had never fallen beneath 300, since the Great Recession from 2007 to 2009.”
https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/breakingus-oil-rig-count-falls-to-xx-below-financial-crisis-lows-2166013
“If the price of US crude remains at or below $20 a barrel — where it spent much of the last few weeks — Chapter 11 bankruptcy cases could reach 140 this year and increase to almost 400 in 2021, according to an analysis by Rystad Energy, published in March.
“…energy firms account for nearly half of Fitch’s April list of “top bonds of concern” — which includes the companies most likely to default.”
https://www.businessinsider.com/list-oil-companies-at-risk-of-debt-default-bankruptcy-fitch-2020-5
“The Trump administration has offered to place a $10 million cap on Philadelphia Energy Solutions’ biofuel blending obligations, effectively slashing the bankrupt refiner’s regulatory liability by more than 70%, according to a proposed settlement between the two parties dated earlier this week.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biofuels-pes-bankruptcy/u-s-offers-bankrupt-refiner-10-million-cap-on-biofuel-obligation-filing-idUKKBN22K2OM
If there is plenty of oil, what is the point of biofuels (except to offer farmers a way to sell more corn)?
Yes, that’s a problem. When corn was needed for ethanol production, farmers responded happily. Made a lot of money. I was living in rural South Dakota at the time and you saw brand new six wheeled tractors, new combines, etc. in every farm yard. To grow corn for ethanol you are allowed to spray and fertilize with any chemical you please, in any amount you please, use any seed you can find, and no one cares of some of the corn rots in the bins. Mix it all together and sell it. Now, however, the land used to do this cannot be used to grow corn for human or animal consumption, because it is now toxic. Ruined. For how long? I have no idea.
Another reason to support the Campaign for Human Extinction.
“While COVID-19 is dominating headlines, another kind of emergency is threatening the lives of millions of people around the world—food insecurity.
“Today’s visualizations use data from the fourth annual Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC 2020) to demonstrate the growing scale of the current situation…”
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/covid-19-global-food-insecurity/
“A jump in food prices across Latin America is bringing added misery to the poorest families hit by the coronavirus pandemic and increasing the chance of social unrest.
“Food and beverage costs outpaced headline inflation in Brazil, Mexico, Chile and Colombia last month, even as other products and services saw slower price increases or even became cheaper.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-08/costlier-food-hits-latin-america-s-poor-and-adds-to-unrest-risk
“Haiti’s World Food Programme Director Pierre Honnorat told CNN that he expects hunger to “get much worse.””
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/08/americas/haiti-famine-coronavirus-intl/index.html
Stop them from working, impose semi-starvation – but it’s all about ‘Saving Lives’ (TM)……
The coming famines will probably be blamed on locusts, weather, malinvestments etc, rather than collapsing economies of scale due to lockdowns.
Harry, as long as it is called a “food crisis” it will never be solved, for the reasons Malthus gave in 1798. It is not a food crisis; it is a population crisis, and anyone who reads history knows how it will end.
But population is a function of food supply.
Old Chinese adage:
Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day.
Teach a man to butcher and salt Michael Moore
and you feed his entire extended family for a year.
Michael has partially redeemed himself with Planet of the Humans…
He could mostly redeem himself if he followed that with something exposing Al Gore and the G W thing.
Al Gore was lying and profiting from renewables…. why do we pursue renewables? Oh because burning FF is burning up the planet… who is the man behind G W????
https://prepareforchange.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Al-Gore-billionaire-USD-1024×576.jpg
https://renaissanceronin.files.wordpress.com/2008/11/al-gore-plane.gif
What say you normies????? Any comment???????
Not so: the problem is asymmetric. Population growth is a function of natural fecundity, given a food supply. Population collapse is a function of the decline in food supply. As explained (again) by Thomas Malthus.
And the way to avoid collapse is to keep your population low enough for the food supply. As Edo Japan did.
Of course, they will never say “x.y billion people will likely starve.” They talk about food insecurity.
Even with BAU, according to the UN, 45% of deaths of children under five years of age are attributable to malnutrition.
In 2018, an estimated 6.2 million children and adolescents under the age of 15 years died, mostly from preventable causes. Of these deaths, 5.3 million were of children under five years of age, with almost half of these in the first month of life.
“Economic data this week showing the damage inflicted by the coronavirus pandemic were nothing short of breathtaking.
“The labor market has cratered in the U.S., the U.K. is looking at its worst economic setback in centuries and joblessness in the euro area is soaring. These developments explain why developed nations are responding with massive fiscal stimulus, while developing countries are leaning on the International Monetary Fund for help.”
Some nice charts:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-08/charting-the-global-economy-week-was-one-for-the-record-books
“The head of the International Monetary Fund has signalled a possible downward revision of global economic forecasts, and warned the United States and China against rekindling a trade war that could weaken a recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/09/imf-warns-of-further-drop-in-global-growth-due-to-covid-19
Changes always come in baby steps.
“Street demonstrations were a common sight in 2019, with protest movements rocking governments across Europe, the Middle East and Latin America. Pro-democracy movements in Moscow and Hong Kong challenged two of the most powerful regimes on the planet.
“Then came the COVID-19 pandemic, and an unprecedented stillness that sees more than half the world’s population living under some form of lockdown. The once-raucous streets of Paris, Moscow, Hong Kong, New Delhi, Beirut, Baghdad and Santiago fell silent as everyone – governments and their critics alike – focused on trying to stop the deadly spread of the novel coronavirus.
“But even as economies came to near-complete stops, politics carried on. Authoritarian governments have used the threat of COVID-19 to curb freedoms and accumulate new powers. And now – with anger swelling over the economic pain inflicted by the lockdowns – activists around the world are fumbling for safety-conscious ways to push back.”
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-dissent-in-the-age-of-covid-19-how-protest-movements-carry-on-in/
Coronavirus lockdowns were only a temporary wet blanket for the protests.
This gets rather tiring… enough of the holocaust already … how about a modern day holocaust story involving Palestine?
https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/holocaust-survivor-michael-katz-escaped-nazis-200508115821469.html
Another place with no lockdown… seems to be functioning quite well — we have an office there and they are not reporting any problems
https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/belarus-life-normal-ravaging-coronavirus-epidemic-200507104734893.html
In March, Lukashenko said: “‘People should not only wash their hands with vodka but also poison the virus with it.”
Awesome!
Even with no lockdown, there is quite a bit of social distancing and other changes. Not mandated, however.
Whenever a flu is about … it’s not a bad idea to wash hands and social distance…. that would dramatically reduce your chances of catching it….
Not sure about the lockdowns though … seems a bit extreme…. might make sense if you wanted to control people and prevent them from rioting and eating each other when the global economy collapses.
Watch the PR taglines — stay home, stay safe….. (hope and change… MAGA…)
More steam rising, as per François Roddier and a partial explanation for the bullish stock markets:
“The pandemic is having a disproportionate impact on industries. Retail, airlines, and Main Street businesses have borne the lions share of the economic pain, while tech and health have thrived.
“Main Street is getting crushed by the state quarantines, and the government is attempting to keep them and their employees afloat with the paycheck protection program (PPP). Still, this isn’t enough with workers getting laid off by the millions every week. Many local restaurants and bars are going to go under, and some analysts are speculating that only the chains will survive.
“The biggest point I wanted to make here was that the businesses that are getting hit the hardest are the ones that aren’t on the public exchanges. Main Street businesses don’t have the same bank relationships that publicly traded companies do, so they aren’t provided with the same level of liquidity. The stock market doesn’t reflect the whole economy, and the side it doesn’t show is the one suffering the most.
“Companies like Amazon, Microsoft, Walmart, Costco, and Home Depot have all benefited from this pandemic at the expense of Main Street. As more small businesses fail, the more market share these well-positioned retail giants will gain.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/remain-bullish-face-economic-crisis-154003581.html
I have been struck by how busy stores that remain open are–for example, Target, Walmart, Costco and Home Depot. If there is no other place to shop, people will come there. They sell such a broad assortment of goods that they are allowed to stay open, while smaller stores, with less of an array, are closed.
I’m struck at how non-sensical this is. I can go to a crowded big box retailer, but not a much less so mom-and-pop shop? Absurd!
The two california doctors made the same point … you can go to Costco but nowhere else… how ridiculous… (except that it’s not… if you are trying to control people and demolish an economy that was collapsing)
Enjoy the months that the El d ers have provided with the CDP
Is this guy on drugs?
The majority of companies on the various stock markets are NOT benefiting from this.
He knows that… he just can’t admit that the CBs are the only thing between the markets and oblivion.
Of course he also knows that the normies will accept this explanation because they are SDR
Unabomber In His Own Words – Ted Kaczynski
I bet Ted is also pleased with the current state of affairs….
David Icke, the Unabomber, and the Pro to cols. Who’s next, the Marquis de Sade?
FE is also a member of the Royal Society for Placing a Number in Brackets at the End of Every Sentence.[46]
https://youtu.be/uaSuNEcW6fM
Hey Greenies – Doomies – Geeta Fans!
After resigning from Berkeley, Kaczynski moved to his parents’ home in Lombard, Illinois, then two years later, in 1971, to a remote cabin he had built outside Lincoln, Montana, where he could live a simple life with little money and without electricity or running water,[43] working odd jobs and receiving some financial support from his family.[8]
His original goal was to become self-sufficient so that he could live autonomously. He taught himself survival skills such as tracking game, edible plant identification, organic farming, bow drilling and other primitive technologies.[44] He used an old bicycle to get to town.
Kaczynski decided it was impossible to live peacefully in nature because of the destruction of the wildland around his cabin by real estate development and industrial projects.[44] In response, he began performing acts of sabotage against nearby developments in 1975,[46] and dedicated himself to reading about sociology and political philosophy, such as the works of Jacques Ellul.
In an interview after his arrest, he recalled being shocked on a hike to one of his favorite wild spots:[44]
It’s kind of rolling country, not flat, and when you get to the edge of it you find these ravines that cut very steeply in to cliff-like drop-offs and there was even a waterfall there. It was about a two days’ hike from my cabin. That summer there were too many people around my cabin so I decided I needed some peace. I went back to the plateau and when I got there I found they had put a road right through the middle of it … You just can’t imagine how upset I was. It was from that point on I decided that, rather than trying to acquire further wilderness skills, I would work on getting back at the system. Revenge.
There you go Geeetaaaa… you talk the talk (HOW DARE YOU!)…. Well walk the walk you morrronic troll — Do Something…. come on Greenies… stop your moaning and Do Something…
Oh right… you prefer your centrally heated homes… mall shopping … and watching teevee.. and geeeta’s sacrifice is a yacht trip to NY to moan….
Not a single Ted among the lot of you pathetic SDRs.
The Industrial Revolution has been a disaster for the human race. – Ted K.
What a genius.
Ted K is still alive and accepts mail in prison. P!ease write him and tell him so!
P.S.
Years ago, I tried to write the Unabomber in a supermax prison in Colorado, coincidentally. I just thought it would be cool to be able to say I wrote the Unabomber (who gets lots of fan mail, I hear, and usually cusses people out or otherwise criticizes them). I gave him my full weird humor and points of view on life, just to see if I could get a reaction out of him.
Well, I got a reaction out of the FBI. They sent my letter back, explaining that it would not be appropriate for him and not conducive to efforts at his rehabilitation. I am sure that copies of my weird, stream-of-consciousness rant are floating around in Washington, DC somewhere and I am probably on some BS watch list (hello, Homeland Security!). I didn’t say anything illegal or wrong, just tried to see if I could get a rise out of him. I got a rise, alright. Be careful what you say. Even innocent stuff can be taken and interpreted differently than intended by the authorities.
For a guy with a decent IQ… what’s he 167 or something? He’s a bit SDRish…. surely he would understand the concept of TINA… and that demolishing BAU would kill billions?
Anyway… Geeetaaa should at least be living in a shack in the bush … she doesn’t have to pipe bomb anyone….
Ted covered that in his books.
Try reading Industrial Society and its Future, it is spot on in every way.
The guy is def. a genius.
🙁 it’s not on audible…
Is this it? https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/longterm/unabomber/manifesto.text.htm
Wouldn’t it be a shame if the Unabomber turned out to be a fake too?
Miles Mathis thinks we’ve been had.
Yes, I too bought this one for years. Until now, even. But my recent discoveries caused me to return to this event for a fresh look. And Oh! how transparent it now seems.
I bought it because, like you, I didn’t analyze it closely for sense. I assumed it was what it was sold as without really questioning it. If I thought about the event at all, it was to ask why he did it, how an intellectual could murder in such a senseless manner, how his manifesto fit into his profile, and all the other things they lead you into. They set these questions up for you so that you don’t ask the fundamental question: did it happen at all? So let us just waltz down the Wikipedia page for Ted Kaczynski and watch the red flags pop up. We can share our embarrassment as we realize how blind we have been.
http://mileswmathis.com/unabomber.pdf
While watching with M Fast last night …we were both thinking…. why would he bother with such a futile mission – even a SDR would realize that there was no way he was going to topple BAU…
If he really wanted to escape why didn’t he go to a seriously remote place in say, Alaska? Why did he buy that land when he knew (could hear) there was a saw mill operating next door?
Also thought it odd that the NYT would agree to publish his manifesto….
Skimmed through that doc … not interested enough in this topic to read through it deeply… but it would not surprise me if the premise is correct… given we live in a matrix
This is a teaser for an upcoming documentary “Plandemic” and an also upcoming book (“Plague of Corruption”). It looks very interesting and I will definitely be interested to see more on this. I was not aware that Fauci was involved with Gallo in AIDS research. It seems that they did not cover themsleves with glory.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/5i9d9XIkiCnX/
There was a link to this video yesterday, and I put a few of the allegations in my comment.
http://ourfiniteworld.com/2020/04/21/covid-19-and-oil-at-1-is-there-a-way-forward/comment-page-64/#comment-242582