COVID-19 and oil at $1: Is there a way forward?

Many people are concerned today with the low price of oil. Others are concerned about slowing or stopping COVID-19. Is there any way forward?

I gave a few hints regarding what is ahead in my last post, Economies won’t be able to recover after shutdowns. We live in a world with a self-organizing economy, made up of components such as businesses, customers, governments and interest rates. Our basic problem is a finite world problem. World population has outgrown its resource base.

Some sort of economy might work with the current resource base, but not the present economy. The COVID-19 crisis and the lockdowns used to try to contain the crisis push the economy farther along the route toward collapse. In this post, I suggest the possibility that some core parts of the world economy might temporarily be saved if they can be made to operate fairly independently of each other.

Let’s look at some parts of the problem:

[1] The world economy works like a pump.

To use a hand water pump, a person forces a lever down, and the desired output (water) appears. Human energy is required to power this pump. Other versions of water pumps use electricity, or burn gasoline or diesel. However the pump operates, there needs to be some form of energy input, for the desired output, water, to be produced.

An economy follows a similar pattern, except that the list of inputs and outputs is longer. With an economy, we need the following inputs, including energy inputs:

  • Human energy
  • Supplemental energy, such as burned biomass, animal power, electricity, and fossil fuel.
  • Other resources, including fertile land, fresh water and raw materials of various kinds.
  • Capital goods, built in previous cycles of the “pump.” These might include factories and machines to put into the factories.
  • Structure and support provided by governments, including laws, roads and schools.
  • Structure and support provided by business hierarchies and their innovations.
  • A financial sector to provide a time-shifting function, so that goods and services with future value can be paid for (in actual physical output) over their expected lifetimes.

The output of the economy is goods and services, such as the following:

  • Food and the ability to store and cook this food
  • Other goods, such as homes, cars, trucks, televisions and diesel fuel
  • Services such as education, healthcare and vacation travel

[2] Adequate growth in supplemental energy (such as fossil fuels) is important for keeping the economy operating properly.

The more human energy is applied to a manual water pump, the faster it can pump. The economy seems to work somewhat similarly.

If we look back historically, the world economy grew well when energy supplies were growing rapidly.

Figure 2. Average growth in energy consumption for 10 year periods, based on the estimates of Vaclav Smil from Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects (Appendix) together with BP Statistical Data for 1965 and subsequent.

Economic growth encompasses both population growth and rising standards of living. Figure 3 below takes the same information used in Figure 2 and divides it into (a) the portion underlying population growth, and (b) the portion of the energy supply growth available for improved standards of living.

Figure 3. Figure similar to Figure 2, except that energy devoted to population growth and growth in living standards are separated. An ellipse is added showing the recent growth in energy is primarily the result of China’s temporary growth in coal supplies.

Looking at Figure 3, we see that, historically, more than half of energy consumption growth has been associated with population growth. There is a reason for this connection: Food is an energy product for humans. Growing food requires a lot of energy, both energy from the sun and other energy. Today, a large share of this other energy is provided by diesel fuel, which is used to operate farm equipment and trucks.

Another thing we can see from Figure 3 is that peaks in living standards tend to go with good times for the economy; valleys tend to go with bad times. For example, the 1860 valley came just before the US Civil War. The 1930 valley came between World War I and World War II, at the time of the Great Depression. The 1991-2000 valley corresponds to the reduced energy consumption of many countries affiliated with the Soviet Union after its central government collapsed in 1991. All of these times of low energy growth were associated with low oil (and food) prices.

[3] Even before COVID-19 came along, the world’s economic pump was reaching limits. This can be seen in several different ways. 

(a) China’s problems. China’s growth in coal production started lagging about 2012 (Figure 4). As long as its coal supply was growing rapidly (2002 to 2012), this rapidly growing source of inexpensive energy helped pull the world economy along.

Figure 4. China energy production by fuel, based on 2019 BP Statistical Review of World Energy data. “Other Ren” stands for “Renewables other than hydroelectric.” This category includes wind, solar, and other miscellaneous types, such as sawdust burned for electricity.

Once China needed to depend on importing more energy to keep its energy consumption growth, it began running into difficulties. China’s cement production started to fall in 2017. Effective January 1, 2018, China found it needed to shut down most of its recycling. Auto sales suddenly starting falling in 2018 as well, suggesting that the economy was not doing well.

(b) Too much world debt growth. It is possible to artificially raise economic growth by offering purchasers of goods and services debt that they cannot really afford to pay back, to use for the purchase of goods and services. Clearly, this was happening before the 2008-2009 recession, leading to debt defaults at that time. The rise in debt to GDP ratios since that time suggest that it is continuing to happen today. If the world economy stumbles, much debt is likely to become impossible to repay.

(c) The need to lower interest rates to keep the world economy growing. If the world economy is growing rapidly, as it was in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, the economy is able to grow in spite of increasing interest rates (Figure 5). After energy supply growth slowed about 1980 (Figure 2), interest rates have needed to fall (Figure 5) to hide the slowing energy consumption growth. In fact, interest rates are near zero now, similar to the way they were in the 1930s. Interest rates are now about as low as they can go, suggesting that the economy is reaching a limit.

Figure 5. 3-month and 10-year US Treasury rates. Graph provided FRED.

(d) Growing wage disparity. Increased technology is viewed positively, but if it leads to too much wage disparity, it can create huge problems by bringing the wages of non-elite workers below the level they need to support a reasonable lifestyle. Globalization adds to this problem. Income disparity is now at a peak, around the level of the late 1920s.

Figure 6. U. S. Income Shares of Top 1% and Top 0.1%, Wikipedia exhibit by Piketty and Saez.

(e) Excessively low commodity prices, even before COVID-19 problems. With the world’s wage disparity problem, many workers find themselves unable to afford homes, cars, and restaurant food. Their lack of purchasing power to buy these end products tends to keep commodity prices too low for producers to make an adequate profit. Oil prices were already too low for producers in 2019, before lockdowns associated with COVID-19 were added. Producers of oil will go out of business at this price. In fact, other commodity prices, including those of liquified natural gas, copper, and lithium are all too low for producers.

[4] The COVID-19 problem, and in fact epidemic problems in general, are not going away.

The publicity recently has been with respect to the COVID-19 virus and the need to “flatten the curve” of infected individuals, so that the health care system is not overwhelmed. The solutions offered revolve around social distancing. This includes reduced air travel and fewer large gatherings.

The problem with these solutions is that they make the world’s problems related to slow economic growth and too much debt a great deal worse. Growing businesses are built on economies of scale. Social distancing requirements lead to less efficient use of buildings and furnishings. For example, if a restaurant can only serve 25% as many customers as previously, its overhead quickly becomes too high, relative to the customers it can serve. It needs to lay off workers. Laid off workers add to the problem of low demand for goods like new homes, vehicles and gasoline. Indirectly, they push commodity prices of all kinds down, including oil prices.

If this were a two-week temporary problem, the situation might be tolerable, but the virus causing COVID-19 is not easily subdued. Many cases of COVID-19 seem to be infectious during their latency period. They may also be infectious after the illness seems to be over. Without an absurd amount of testing (plus much more accurate testing than seems to be really available), it is impossible to know whether a particular airline pilot for a plane bringing cargo is infectious. No one can tell whether a factory worker going back to work is really infectious, either. Citizens don’t understand the futility of trying to contain the virus; they expect that an ever-large share of our limited resources will be spent on beating back the virus.

To make matters worse, from what we know today, a person cannot count on life-long immunity after having the disease. A person who seems to be immune today, may not be immune next week or next year. Putting a badge on a person, showing that that person seems to be immune today, doesn’t tell you much about whether that person will be immune next week or next year. With all of these issues, it is pretty much impossible to get rid of COVID-19. We will likely need to learn to live with it, coming back year after year, perhaps in mutated form.

Even if we could somehow work around COVID-19’s problems, we can still expect to have other pandemic problems. The problem with epidemics has existed as long as humans have inhabited the earth. Antibiotics and other products of the fossil fuel age have allowed a temporary reprieve from some types of epidemics, but the overall problem has not disappeared. Our attention is toward COVID-19, but there are many other kinds of plant and animal epidemics we are facing. For example:

Even if COVID-19 does not do significant harm to the world economy, with all of the resource limits and economic problems we are encountering, certainly some future worldwide pandemic will.

[5] Historically, the way the world economy has been organized is as a large number of almost separate economies, each acting like a separate economic pump. Such an arrangement is much more stable than a single tightly networked world economy.

If a world economy is organized as a group of individual economies, with loose links to other economies, there are several advantages:

(a) Epidemics become less of a problem.

(b) Each economy has more control over its own future. It can create its own financial system if it desires. It can decide who owns what. It can decree that wages will be very equal, or not so equal.

(c) If population rises relative to resources in one economy, or if weather/climate takes a turn for the worse, that particular economy can collapse without the rest of the world’s economy collapsing. After a rest period, forests can regrow and soil fertility can improve, allowing a new start later.

(d) The world economy is in a sense much more stable, because it is not dependent upon “everything going correctly, everywhere.”

[6] The COVID-19 actions taken to date, together with the poor condition the economy was in previously, lead me to believe that the world economy is headed for a major reset. 

Recently, we have experienced world leaders everywhere falling in line with the idea of shutting down major parts of their economies, to slow the spread of COVID-19. Citizens are worried about the illness and want to “do something.” In a way, however, the shutdowns make no sense at all:

(a) Potential for starvation. Any world leader should know that a large share of its population is living “on the edge.” People without savings cannot get along without income for for a long period, maybe not even a couple of weeks. Poor people are likely to be pushed toward starvation, unless somehow income to buy food is made available to these people. This is especially a problem for India and the poor countries of Africa. The loss of population in poor countries due to starvation is likely to be far higher than the 2% death rate expected from COVID-19.

(b) Potential for oil prices and other commodity prices to fall far too low for producers. With a large share of the world economy shut down, prices for many goods fall too low. As I am writing this, the WTI oil price is shown as $1.26 per barrel. Such a low price is simply absurd. It will cut off all production. If food cannot be sold in restaurants, its price may fall too low as well, causing producers to plow it under, rather than send it to market.

(c) Potential for huge debt defaults and huge loss of asset value. The financial system is built on promises. These promises can only be met if oil can continue to be pumped and goods made with fossil fuels can continue to be sold. Today’s economic system is threatening to fall apart. Even at this point in the epidemic, we are seeing a huge problem with oil prices. Other problems, such as problems with derivatives, are likely not far away.

The economy is a self-organizing system. If there really is the potential for some parts of the world economic system to be saved, while others are lost, I expect that the self-organizing nature of the system will work in this direction.

[7] A reset world economy will likely end up with “pieces” of today’s economy surviving, but within a very different framework.

There are clearly parts of the world economy that are not working:

  • The financial system is way too large. There is too much debt, and asset prices are inflated based on very low interest rates.
  • World population is way too high, relative to resources.
  • Wage and wealth disparity is too great.
  • Too much of income is going to the financial system, healthcare, education, entertainment, and travel.
  • All of the connectivity of today’s world is leading to epidemics of many kinds traveling around the world.

Even with these problems, there may still be some core parts of the world economy that perhaps can be made to work. Each would have a smaller population than today. They would function much more independently than today, like mostly separate economic pumps. The nature of these economies will be different in different parts of the world.

In a less connected world, what we think of today as assets will likely have much less value. High rise buildings will be worth next to nothing, for example, because of their ability to transfer pathogens around. Public transportation will lose value for the same reason. Manufacturing that depends upon supply lines around the world will no longer work either. This means that manufacturing of computers, phones and today’s cars will likely no longer be possible. Products built locally will need to depend almost exclusively on local resources.

Pretty much everything that is debt today can be expected to default. Shares of stock will have little value. To try to save parts of the system, governments will need to take over assets that seem to have value such as farm land, mines, oil and gas wells, and electricity transmission lines. They will also likely need to take over banks, insurance companies and pension plans.

If oil products are available, governments may also need to make certain that farms, trucking companies and other essential users are able to get the fuel they need so that people can be fed. Water and sanitation are other systems that may need assistance so that they can continue to operate.

I expect that eventually, each separate economy will have its own currency. In nearly all cases, the currency will not be the same as today’s currency. The currency will be paid only to current workers in the economy, and it will only be usable for purchasing a limited range of goods made by the local economy.

[8] These are a few of my ideas regarding what might be ahead:

(a) There will be a shake-out of governmental organizations and intergovernmental organizations. Most intergovernmental organizations, such as the United Nations and European Union, will disappear. Many governments of countries may disappear, as well. Some may be overthrown. Others may collapse, in a manner similar to the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union in 1991. Governmental organizations take energy; if energy is scarce, they are dispensable.

(b) Some countries seem to have a sufficient range of resources that at least the core portion of them may be able to go forward, for a while, in a fairly modern state:

  • United States
  • Canada
  • Russia
  • China
  • Iran

Big cities will likely become problematic in each of these locations, and populations will fall. Alaska and other very cold places may not be able to continue as part of the core, either.

(c) Countries, or even smaller units, will want to continue to limit trade and travel to other areas, for fear of contracting illnesses.

(d) Europe, especially, looks ripe for a big step back. Its fossil fuel resources tend to be depleted. There may be parts that can continue with the use of animal labor, if such animal labor can be found. Big protests and failing debt are likely by this summer in some areas, including Italy.

(e) Governments of the Middle Eastern countries and of Venezuela cannot continue long with very low oil prices. These countries are likely to see their governments overthrown, with a concurrent reduction in exports. Population will also fall, perhaps to the level before oil exploration.

(f) The making of physical goods will experience a major setback, starting immediately. Many supply chains are already broken. Medicines made in India and China are likely to start disappearing. Automobile manufacturing will depend on individual countries setting up their own manufacturing supply chains if the making of automobiles is to continue.

(g) The medical system will suffer a major setback from COVID-19 because no one will want to come to see their regular physician anymore, for fear of catching the disease. Education will likely become primarily the responsibility of families, with television or the internet perhaps providing some support. Universities will wither away. Music may continue, but drama (on television or elsewhere) will tend to disappear. Restaurants will never regain their popularity.

(h) It is possible that Quantitative Easing by many countries can temporarily prop up the prices of shares of stock and homes for several months, but eventually physical shortages of many goods can be expected. Food in particular is likely to be in short supply by spring a year from now. India and Africa may start seeing starvation much sooner, perhaps within weeks.

(i) History shows that when energy resources are not growing rapidly (see discussion of Figure 3), there tend to be wars and other conflicts. We should not be surprised if this happens again.

Conclusion

We seem to be reaching the limit of making our current global economic system work any longer. The only hope of partial salvation would seem to be if core parts of the world economy can be made to work in a more separate fashion for at least a few more years. In fact, oil and other fossil fuel production may continue, but for each country’s own use, with very limited trade.

There are likely to be big differences among economies around the world. For example, hunter-gathering may work for a few people, with the right skills, in some parts of the world. At the same time, more modern economies may exist elsewhere.

The new economy will have far fewer people and far less complexity. Each country can be expected to have its own currency, but this currency will likely be used only on a limited range of locally produced goods. Speculation in asset prices will no longer be a source of wealth.

It will be a very different world!

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
This entry was posted in Financial Implications and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

4,539 Responses to COVID-19 and oil at $1: Is there a way forward?

  1. Hide-away says:

    It’s all about net energy….

    “The study, undertaken as part of the UK Energy Research Centre programme and published today in Nature Energy, warns that the increasing energy costs of extracting fossil fuels will cause the ratios to continue to decline, pushing energy resources towards a “net energy cliff.” This is when net energy available to society declines rapidly due to the increasing amounts of “parasitical” energy required in the energy production.”
    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/07/190711114846.htm

    We’ve all known about it for years, especially here at OFW. The industrial civilization that we live in runs on energy, yet we have been using debt to drag future energy use into the present. What can’t go on will eventually stop.

    The Seneca cliff was getting closer and closer, yet when we fall over, everyone is looking for scapegoats instead of reality, we have fallen.

    Coronavirus or the lockdowns, or both, are just the catalyst, the straw that broke the camels back. It is a big step down off the cliff, with none of us expecting it just this way. If this had not come along, something else would eventually push us over the cliff, maybe 6 months, maybe a decade, who knows, but does any of it matter anymore?

    • Tim Groves says:

      It’s true, many OFWers have been waiting for the Seneca cliff the way certain Christian fundies wait for the Rapture. So the End of More comes as no surprise to us.

      However, there is a globalist plan in place to crash the economies of the industrialized Western nations to weaken those nations and even out the world’s poverty, so to speak. The move away from fossil fuels and the pursuit of renewable power generation have been central planks in this strategy.

      His Holiness the Former POTUS said it, so it must be so.

      https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1IkjnEgTSp4/UGt0Tr2kL0I/AAAAAAAADi8/2YY54h6uQfo/s1600/ObamaCoal.jpg

  2. Fast Eddy says:

    HOW CAN IT BE???

    BALI – Previously persuaded it may have a mysterious immunity, Bali appeared to be headed for a cruel Covid-19 wake-up call after a single cruise ship worker who refused to self-quarantine reportedly caused widespread infections in a village in the east of the Indonesian tourist island.

    Acting on April 30, authorities sealed off Abuan, lying 10 kilometers north of Gianyar, Bali’s second most densely populated district and the spiritual birthplace of Balinese kings, and confined all 2,640 villagers to their homes.

    With eight cases already confirmed through swabs, medical staff descending on the picturesque rural settlement subsequently screened out 442 suspect new cases from among the 1,200 villagers they subjected to the less-reliable rapid test.

    Now, the swab results from the state-run Sanglah Hospital laboratory are in: what was widely perceived to be a cluster from hell has turned out to be nothing of the kind. According to officials, none of the 442 were positive for the virus.

    https://asiatimes.com/2020/05/balis-covid-19-defenses-start-to-wash-away/

    Balinese take a tablespoon of this every morning for good for health…and for keep virus away:

    https://eggisamazing.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/kraft-miracle-whip1.jpg

    Now this is strange …. CBS needs to fake Covid… surely it would be easy to find a queue at a hospital?

    Michigan 10M total population
    Confirmed 46,756
    Deaths 4,526

    Bali 4M ….311 infections… odd?

  3. Fast Eddy says:

    Bali
    Confirmed 311
    Deaths 4

    Allowed China and Wuhan flights well into March

    Sanglah Hospital confirms ‘not many Covid cases’

    • Tsubion says:

      now i think about it

      china must have the largest number of crisis actors of any nation state

      and they kind of don’t have much choice to opt out

      even so – the pissss poor show they put on in february proved that they really need to step up their game

      it was very helpful to see xi standing outdoors with his little mask on and even god man putin donned a hazmat suit – hilarious – to visit some invisible italians

      the magical cure will be unveiled soon

      the numbers hooaxx will be unveiled soon

      if anyone continues lockdowns after that – there will be mass disobedience like never before

  4. Rodster says:

    “KSA Running Out Of Money: Riyadh To Slash Spending By $27 Billion, Suspend Cost Of Living Allowance”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/saudi-arabia-running-out-money-riyadh-slash-spending-27-billion-suspend-cost-living

    • Tsubion says:

      aah terrrarist tedros

      yeah he’ll get his

      and all the rest of them

      you’ve heard about the mass arrests?

      lets start with these small fry – then build up to a nice juicy barbacue – biggest bonfire ever – burn baby burn

      small compensation but I’ll take it

  5. Fast Eddy says:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/07/michael-moore-far-right-climate-crisis-deniers-film-environment-falsehoods

    It claims that environmentalism is a self-seeking scam, doing immense harm to the living world while enriching a group of con artists. This has long been the most effective means by which denial – most of which has been funded by the fossil fuel industry – has been spread. Everyone hates a scammer.

    It not only does that — it exposes how the entire movement is a gigantic scam.

    Let’s give George the SDR award for 2020

    Only 7M views… I guess greenies are being told to avoid it

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zk11vI-7czE

    This search brings up — nothing

    g,,,,,reta th,,unb,,,erg comments on planet of humans

  6. Fast Eddy says:

    Difficult to put shaving cream back in the can

    When Bharat Gite reopened his aluminum parts factories in India’s western city of Pune, he spent days servicing idle machines, sanitizing his premises and putting in place social distancing norms for staff.

    His bigger problem now is convincing workers to return to their jobs after millions of Indians fled cities for their rural homes when Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed a nationwide lockdown at the end of March. Gite supplies companies like General Electric Co., ABB Ltd. and Siemens AG, and he says sales orders have dried up. The two factories run by his Taural India Pvt. Ltd. are operating at just a tenth of their capacity and with 30% of labor, he says.

    “We haven’t heard from customers in the last two months,” Gite said by phone from Pune. “It’s totally a havoc situation. We don’t know what is going to happen.” The biggest uncertainty is “how to bring the workforce back,” he said. “It will take at least a year for the business to come back on track.”

    As India begins gradually easing stay-at-home restrictions across the country, Gite’s experience shows how reopening the economy isn’t going to be a straightforward exercise. On top of the labor shortages and slack demand, businesses are living with the threat they’ll be shut down for several weeks if a single infection is detected, forcing them to proceed with caution. That dispels any notion of a quick recovery in an economy facing its first contraction in more than four decades and hundreds of millions of job losses.

    “If one person is infected, the whole factory will be closed for 28 days. That is a fear among entrepreneurs,” said Chandrakant Salunkhe, president of the SME Chamber of India, which represents small- and mid-sized businesses in the country. “Even if I start my factory now, I’ll not get raw material. If I have raw material, I don’t have labor, and if I have labor I don’t have orders. Supply chain has totally broken down.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-10/india-reopens-economy-but-millions-of-workers-stay-home?srnd=premium-asia

    https://www.magicalquote.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Horror-has-a-face-and-you-must-make-a-friend-of-horror.-Horror-and-moral-terror-are-your-friends.-If-they-are-not-then-they-are-enemies-to-be-feared.jpg

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Are G3T’s methods unsound? (lockdown nearly 8 weeks… reopening even though there are still infections … gee I wonder what will happen next)

      https://cdn.quotesgram.com/img/56/47/95541264-apocalypse-now-5.jpg

    • The article says,

      “On top of the labor shortages and slack demand, businesses are living with the threat they’ll be shut down for several weeks if a single infection is detected, forcing them to proceed with caution. ”

      This is the same story we heard in China, when they were trying to fight the epidemic. It prevents the economy from really getting back into operation.

  7. Dennis L. says:

    Park patrol, this does not seem very comfortable to me.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=39&v=viuR7N6E2LA&feature=emb_title

    Dennis L.

    • Tsubion says:

      some spray paint will cripple the sensors on that thing

      trip wires – even a bolo thrown at the legs

      throw a fishing net on it

      what? – you don’t think regular folks are capable?

      now that they ALL look like ms 13 members with their cosplay bandanas?

      we AAALLLL criminals now

      that’s why we’re under house arrest

  8. i1 says:

    Perhaps China did not respond to the Ft Detrick flu as Darpa had predicted. Better safe than sorry when dealing with engineered pathogens.

  9. Fast Eddy says:

    The Government has revealed three new Covid-19 cases, including two nurses who have tested positive, ahead of an announcement later this afternoon about when the country will move to alert level 2.

    The Ministry of Health said two of the three cases were linked to the St Margaret’s Hospital & Rest Home in Auckland. The individuals are both nurses at Waitakere Hospital.

    Both had been asymptomatic throughout a stand-down period which they spent in precautionary self-isolation at home.

    They were tested as part of routine requirements for their safe return to work and the results came back positive. They remain in isolation awaiting further testing.

    Although further cases in clusters cannot be ruled out, strong precautionary measures remain in place at the hospital and the St Margaret’s facility.

    The third case is a person who has travelled back from overseas, so is an imported case.

    https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/three-new-cases-d-day-alert-level-2

    Based on the above … NZ should either a) remain in lockdown or b) should never have been put into lockdown

    • Hide-away says:

      c) Neither of the above.

      Governments and hospital systems were caught with their pants down at the start of the pandemic. Now they have had time to get organised enough they think they can cope with this virus in hospitals and in the community.

      They release the brakes for a while and try to manage what happens with outbreaks, with systems now organised much better, and a lack of new infections coming in from overseas.
      i would suggest they will quickly impose small ‘area’ lockdowns for any outbreaks, with the size of any already determined through a host of meetings over the last couple of months.

      Sorry to be pragmatic, but trying to work out how to rerun society/civilization probably took a bit of time and a lot of co-ordination.

      Personally I think the damage to the economy has been huge, with no coming back to any type of ‘normal’ that we knew before, with changed behaviors of the population the biggest change totally unaccounted for.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        You mean like the damage in Ethiopia which never blocked China flights – even those from Wuhan?

        Cases overview
        Ethiopia 109 Million Population
        Confirmed 241
        Deaths 5

        New Zealand 4.8 Million Population
        Confirmed 1,147
        Deaths 21

        Based on the above… the smart thing to do would have been to welcomed all Chinese flights including those from Wuhan… into NZ

        I know that you struggle with the logic I have just presented… if you have any questions I am here to help.

        Oh did I mention I called the biggest Bali hospital yesterday (another place that was welcoming China flights well into March)…. and they said ‘we do not have very many Covid cases’

        • Fast Eddy says:

          CBS crews on the way to Bali and Addis … there are ads online offering $50 for anyone willing to pretend they have covid and queue up for the photo shoot…

          I am told there are millions in both places trying to sign up because $50 will fend off starvation for another week….

          https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/06/cbs-news-edits-testing-story-after-project-veritas-exposes-clinics-line-stuffing-ploy/

        • Hide-away says:

          If the news is fake why do you believe in those numbers??
          You either believe the news or you don’t, or do you just pick and choose whatever suits the narrative??
          Governments saw what was happening in China , Italy etc and panicked. They are all run by ordinary people that were in a situation they didn’t understand.

          There is no plan it is a self organised chaos. We all knew that something was going to bring industrial civillization down sometime soon, simply because we were living with less net energy.
          Along came a virus that acted as the catalyst for economic destruction, whether the virus or the lockdown is irrelevant, it was going to happen and did.

          • “Along came a virus that acted as the catalyst for economic destruction, whether the virus or the lockdown is irrelevant, it was going to happen and did.”

            That is a good way of thinking about the situation.

        • Hide-away says:

          So you believe the numbers now, make up your mind please.

          • Tsubion says:

            when you’re trying to count something but there’s nothing to count – everything automatically reverts to zero

            zero accurate tests – random symtoms bundled together for greater effect

            what exactly are you measuring? What are you counting?

            neil fergusson – anthony fauci – deborah birx – zero credibility

            zero measures like in the first videos coming out of wuhan anywhere else

            remember those vids of people being dragged out of their appartments – apartment doors being welded shut – random people being scooped off the street into strange white cubes – random people falling over but putting their hands out at the last minute to break the fall

            why would the authorities allow someone – standing right behind them – to record these events and then upload them for the whole world to see?

            there are only two ways to break this down – either the chinese authorities were rounding up a few dissidents or they were faking an outbreak using crisis actors

            to someone with a balanced mind – you would expect to see the same kind of events all over the planet IF we were all dealing with exactly the same issue

            when I saw the media coming out of china my initial reaction was holy craap this is really bad but i can spot crisis actors a mile off so when the first vids from princess class cruise ships started coming out i knew we were being lied to – you can tell when people are following a script

            if you don’t think the global big pharma mafia is incapable of pulling off a coordinated campaign like this then you should watch the Event 201 from october last year

            https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/about

            Event 201 was a 3.5-hour pandemic tabletop exercise that simulated a series of dramatic, scenario-based facilitated discussions, confronting difficult, true-to-life dilemmas associated with response to a hypothetical, but scientifically plausible, pandemic. 15 global business, government, and public health leaders were players in the simulation exercise that highlighted unresolved real-world policy and economic issues that could be solved with sufficient political will, financial investment, and attention now and in the future.

            The exercise consisted of pre-recorded news broadcasts, live “staff” briefings, and moderated discussions on specific topics. These issues were carefully designed in a compelling narrative that educated the participants and the audience.

            The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, World Economic Forum, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation jointly propose these recommendations.

            In recent years, the world has seen a growing number of epidemic events, amounting to approximately 200 events annually. These events are increasing, and they are disruptive to health, economies, and society. Managing these events already strains global capacity, even absent a pandemic threat. Experts agree that it is only a matter of time before one of these epidemics becomes global—a pandemic with potentially catastrophic consequences. A severe pandemic, which becomes “Event 201,” would require reliable cooperation among several industries, national governments, and key international institutions.

            Recent economic studies show that pandemics will be the cause of an average annual economic loss of 0.7% of global GDP—or $570 billion. The players’ responses to the scenario illuminated the need for cooperation among industry, national governments, key international institutions, and civil society, to avoid the catastrophic consequences that could arise from a large-scale pandemic.

            Similar to the Center’s 3 previous exercises—Clade X, Dark Winter, and Atlantic Storm—Event 201 aimed to educate senior leaders at the highest level of US and international governments and leaders in global industries.

            http://file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/dhs/206687_ConductingDrills_Exercise30806.pdf

            EXERCISE PLANNING PROCESS

            The exercise planning process involves considerable coordination among participating hospital(s) and key staff. The planning process includes managing the project, conven-ing a planning team, conducting planning conferences, identifying exercise design objec-tives, developing the scenario and documentation, assigning logistical tasks, and identi-fying the evaluation methodology

            zero common sense

            if you think anyone was caught with their pants down

  10. Fast Eddy says:

    G3T is not only not recommending face coverings – she is actually discouraging their use… stating ‘you would need to change them 3x per hour because they get damp’

    Her flunky says that supply is not an issue – he says the science is not conclusive.

    Odd https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cloth-face-cover-faq.html

  11. Rodster says:

    “Saudi Arabia Running Out Of Money: Riyadh To Slash Spending By $27 Billion, Suspend Cost Of Living Allowance”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/saudi-arabia-running-out-money-riyadh-slash-spending-27-billion-suspend-cost-living

  12. Fast Eddy says:

    What does Tedros (aka The P IMP) think

    https://youtu.be/207HuOxltvI

    • Fast Eddy says:

      aNN – any comment on this? (are we almost at 5000?)

      • robert wilson says:

        It’s simple. Ignore this crap.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          When the quest is 5000…. every post… is a g..oood… post

          • Hide-away says:

            That’s now 95+, you can do it, make a complete shemozzle of the comments section……

            No-one really wanted informed discussion…

            • Fast Eddy says:

              That’s good because there are probably less than 10 people who comment on OFW that are not SDR anyway…

              The only purpose the SDRs serve is to provide fodder for FE and others to entertain each other.

              Remember what OFW was like pre FE’s resurrection? How the rest of the core for the most part left you to your banal, inane tripe?

              Odd how not a single ‘reporter’ asked G3T why she is not recommending face coverings when the CDC is…. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cloth-face-cover-faq.html

              Toadies… boot lickers… if someone were to ask that then they’d not get an answer — and if they pushed back they’d be tossed out.. That is the way it works

            • well I for one am relieved that you were released from suspended animation Eddy. It would have been such a waste of a human intellect of your level to send you to Proxima Centauri as planned. (they really are gonna be annoyed there a few light years from now).
              Perhaps send one of your disciples?

              And sanity here got just so monotonous after a while.

              Ive been doing my own research and found that you were quite correct in your assessment of this virus hoax-exaggeration thing

              I found that 99% of all scientists, whether medical or other disciplines, in every hospital, university, medical centre in just about every country in the world, have indeed all colluded together (and with respective governments of course) to present a united front: that corona virus is responsible for over 200,000 deaths world wide.

              That can only be a collective lie, as you pointed out

              I know now that this world-hoax was started just to keep themselves in funds. (and newspaper editors in headlines)

              Every government in the world has gone along with this, as you said, to frighten the proletariat into housebound submission, so they can be let out to do essential menial tasks, as and when required, until the next fake-outbreak, whereupon they can be locked up again –which will be ideal, having nothing to do but watch tv or have sex, will result in the birth of a new generation of proles for menial labour.

              Which of course will be fresh brain fodder for Bill Gates to do his vaccination brain diddling, to control their minds in such a way that the won’t know they are being controlled.

              Seems we owe it to you Eddy, for exposing all this. Can’t thank you enough.

              Oh, and btw—I resolved that London Underground urine smell thing.

              You were quite correct. I had simply got used to it. (like the smell of one’s own armpits I guess.)
              It seems that every night the cleaning teams spray the underground system with ‘eau de urine’ because the tourists expect it. Apparently it was agreed that it adds to the ‘local colour’ so to speak. That If the signature smell wasn’t there, the tourists would all go home, complaining that ‘London just isn’t the same anymore’

              Apparently the underground ‘smell’ attraction has been so successful, that this year they are introducing fog making machines into central London—which of course will make it even more difficult to go out. When the tourists come back, they’ll love it.

              Success all round wouldn’t you say?

  13. psile says:

    Just take it for what it is. Greece has been the best performing EU country, where it comes to CV-19 mitigation measures. It’s good to be no.1 for a positive reason, rather than a negative one, for a change.

    https://cdn.sansimera.gr/media/photos/main/Ioannis_Velissariou-Kresna.jpg
    Battle of Kresna Gorge between Greece and Bulgaria, 1913

    Greeks marvel at Britain’s Covid chaos as their lockdown lifts after 150 deaths

    iIn contrast to the more than 31,000 who have now succumbed to the disease in the UK, Greece has recorded one of the continent’s lowest casualty rates, with 150 deaths and fewer than 2,700 confirmed coronavirus cases after enforcement of tough measures to contain the epidemic early on.

    It has been a stark change of fortune for a nation more usually associated with civil disobedience and incompetence – both products of a dysfunctional state.

    As Britain enters the week uncertain of whether its lockdown will be significantly eased, Greeks are preparing beaches and hotels for a tourist season they hope will begin in July as restrictions gradually unwind.

    Prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has so far resisted the temptation to gloat. But as epidemiologists continue to speak of a flattening of the curve, polls show support for his government at an all-time high. Pride has replaced anger and shame – sentiments that prevailed throughout the rollercoaster ride that was the country’s brush with bankruptcy. Trust in the ability of state institutions has also reportedly returned.

    The resilience gained through years of crisis may have prepared Greeks to cope with the pandemic, analysts say.

    • Covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “… Greeks are preparing beaches and hotels for a tourist season they hope will begin in July as restrictions gradually unwind.”

      sure, start the tourist season at anytime…

      but really, they are in for a majorly harsh devastating drenching of cold water reality when almost no tourists show up…

      “Prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has so far resisted the temptation to gloat.”

      c’mon, please gloat, it will be something to look back on later in the tourist season… please gloat… pretty please?

    • Fast Eddy says:

      But Greece is not faking the numbers… that’s why they are so low

      • psile says:

        I doubt it. Early intervention prevented an avalanche of cases, for now. Let’s see what the future brings, as mitigation measures are relaxed.

        I expect there’ll be additional and more severe lockdowns, and Greece has one of the severest mitigation regimes around, as the virus breaks loose again.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Australia had minimal early intervention — NZ would full on Super Max Lockdown…

          Look at what happened (in fact lockdowns have not accomplished anything anywhere unless destroying the economy is considered an accomplishment — which I do because destroying the global economy means extinction)

          • psile says:

            The antipodes are relatively isolated, compared to Greece, which is at the crossroads of three continents.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Ethiopia is the main hub for Chinese workers entering Africa (including those from Wuhan) and they have continued to allow PRC flights (to this day)… yet — they have fewer infections and deaths than NZ… and 20x the population

              There were loads of MSM warnings about a disaster coming in Ethiopia because they refused to block flights… so you can bet your mother’s life that if there was a disaster situation there — the cameras would be there…. so there is no cover-up….

  14. Rodster says:

    Is this part of a CDP Fast Eddy would approve?

    So the el.ders want us to panic over Covid 19 but they don’t want us to worry about Murder Hornets which can decimate the Honeybee population.

    “https://www.foxnews.com/science/murder-hornets-bees-killed-essential-experts

  15. Fast Eddy says:

    4,405 Responses to COVID-19 and oil at $1: Is there a way forward?

    4,406….

    • Covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      4,744 comments on the previous article dated March 31…

      I could guess that you didn’t know that…

      and…

      this is day number 20 for this article so the cutoff is very soon…

      I could guess that you didn’t know that, either…

    • And I don’t have a new post finished yet.

      • Tim Groves says:

        Please don’t leave us without a new post, Gail.
        Your patients need you!

        • Covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

          I second that emotion…

          down the road, there someday will be a “last” OFW post…

          that will be a sad day indeed…

          I’m hoping for at least through 2021…

  16. Fast Eddy says:

    More than three quarters (78%) of all antidepressant, anti-anxiety and anti-insomnia prescriptions filled during the week ending March 15 (the peak week) were for new prescriptions.

    The percent increase in the number of new prescriptions between the week of February 16 and week ending March 15 for the all three categories was 25.4%

    The percent increase in the number of new prescriptions between the week of February 16 and week ending March 15 for anti-anxiety medications was 37.7%

    https://www.whas11.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/express-scripts-more-anti-anxiety-medication-usage/417-da71a38e-522b-446f-ac5f-53e65f28e6a4

    Next up – Fenties — for when Xanax is not enough

    https://2ontheaisle.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/xanadu-press-22.jpg

  17. Hide-away says:

    Over 80 posts in one weekend, from one poster, mostly low content drivel, with a few good posts, does tend to stifle good discussion that occurs spread over many pages now, instead of a few. What’s the motive for this, boredom?
    There are a few brilliant insights, but lots of rubbish, I just don’t understand why the rubbish and think it demeans the site and the posters own good posts.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      I thought the Ardern ‘look’ posts were some of my best work. I was thinking of doing a PHD contrasting the Blue Steel look with The Moaning Greenie…. I’d be looking at the psychological impacts on Millenials of both looks in the context of contemporary social and mass media.

      • Covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        wear your tin foil proudly, Foil Eddie…

      • beidawei says:

        I agree with Hide-away. Maybe there should be some sort of posts-per-day limit.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          I think instead there should be an IQ test and a series of questions that users must fill in before they are allowed to post at all.

          I volunteer to create the questions

        • GBV says:

          You (and the OP) sound like the type of people who would enjoy telling people they have to stay at home during a pandemic for their own good

          😐

          -GBV

          • Fast Eddy says:

            The thing is… the SDRs have not worked out that you can type a name into the search bar — pull up all the comments from a user and — delete them.

            Perhaps they should ask G3T to show them how to do that…

        • Tsubion says:

          will that keep the pompous authoritarian control freaks in check?

    • Covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      yes, good insights can be quite diminished by voluminous rubbbish…

      there is also a built up lack of credibility for anyone who posts long series of Tin Foil comments…

      but…

      it seems that the deal is that we get to make our assertions uncensored, and others get the same deal…

      worldwide freedoms of speech may be on the downswing, so it is to be appreciated as of now…

      • Tim Groves says:

        And as you yourself have pointed out hundreds of times, David it’s BAU tonight baby!

        So let’s be content and the time’s lament, to see the world turned upside down.
        Oh, what sweet wine we’re drinking!

        https://youtu.be/Oub5-p3qSkU

        Listen to me and you shall hear
        New hath not been this thousand year
        Since Herod, Caesar and many more,
        You never heard the like before.
        Holy-days are despis’d,
        New fashions are devis’d,
        Old Christmas is kicked out of Town,
        Yet let’s be content and the times lament,
        You see the world turned upside down.

        Command is giv’n, we must obey,
        and quite forget Old Christmas Day;
        Kill a thousand men, or a town regain,
        We will give thanks and praise amen.
        The wine pot shall clink,
        We will feast and drink,
        and then strange motions will abound.
        Yet let’s be content and the times lament,
        You see the world turned upside down.

        Our Lords and Knights and Gentry too,
        Do mean old fashions to forego:
        They set a Porter at the gate,
        That none must enter in thereat.
        They count it a sin
        When poor people come in.
        Hospitality itself is drowned.
        Yet let’s be content and the times lament,
        You see the world turned upside down.

        The Serving Men do sit and whine,
        And think it long ere dinner time;
        The Butler’s still out of the way,
        Or else my Lady keeps the key;
        The poor old Cook
        In the larder doth look,
        Where is no goodness to be found.
        Yet let’s be content and the times lament,
        You see the world turned upside down.

        To conclude, I’ll tell you news that’s right:
        Christmas was killed at Naseby fight;
        Charity was slain at that same time,
        Jack Tell-Troth too, a friend of mine.
        Likewise then did die
        Roast beef and shred pie;
        Pig, goos and capon no quarter found.
        Yet let’s be content and the times lament,
        You see the world turned upside down…

        • Tim Groves says:

          From the video introduction:

          In the 17th century, Cromwell and the Puritans seized power in England. Offended by singing and dancing and drinking, they banned the celebration of Christmas for years in Britain and its colonies. Something of a folk music scholar, Maddy Prior unearthed this historic song to share with us.

          It is intriguing to read Puritan literature referring to Christmas as “humbug” and then to see Scrooge, two centuries later, observing conventional Puritan prudery toward Christmas while neglecting all its charity.

          • Xabier says:

            Typically cruel and hypocritical of fanatics like the Puritans to deprive poorer people of heat and food provided by their social superiors at Christmas; the traditional obligation of Christmas feasts made winter much more bearable. Vegans are their true heirs.

        • Covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

          thanks, T G…

          I’m on edge right now…

          I try to remind myself that many/most others are also…

          domo arigato…

          reopen Japan… now!

          baseball…!!!!!

          Freedom!!!!!

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Just because you don’t understand some of it … does not mean its rubbish….

        • Tsubion says:

          what they call rubbbishh is actually gold but they’re too blind deaf and dumb to know the difference

          how does it go? – you can lead a blind donkey to water… but they spit on you ( or is that camels) and call you names and endlessly obssess over a small metal hat that you don’t possess

          don’t worry – all will be revealed soon – and normie heads will explode

    • Jdawg says:

      Yep I used to come here for quality comments, unfortunately that’s not the case anymore

    • Tsubion says:

      pompous, pontificating plea to superiority denotes narcisistic, arrogant, behaviour

      authoritarian control freaks love to call the shots on what is acceptable speech and what isn’t – usually according to their own desires and biases

      not naming names – just putting it out there

      but i get it – you just want to smell your own faaarts and everyone else be darned

  18. Fast Eddy says:

    China faces looming crisis as pandemic sends unemployment soaring

    Years of social progress in China are at risk of being undone as the country grapples with the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic, a black swan event that has lashed the world’s second biggest economy and driven unemployment to historic highs.

    https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3083513/coronavirus-china-faces-historic-test-pandemic-stokes-fears

    Burn CCP Burn you mangy dogs.

  19. Denial says:

    Eddy the amount of time you spend on a computer is sad……We get what you are trying to say.
    Now go out and live a little, have you ever read a book? I know kids of your generation might not know what one is but you can google it……Let some other people have a turn to comment without all your muck all over the place. I do agree with you but I don’t care what you have to say 24 hours a day. Thank you

  20. Fast Eddy says:

    Another huge victory for G3T (aka The Re Tard)

    Covid 19 Coronavirus: SkyCity plans to shed another 700 staff

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12330899

    (actually she is just following CDP …. but in the interest of stirring the pot we’ll pretend there is no CDP)

  21. Malcopian says:

    Run your car on water.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwljYEPLMp8

    Yes, we could just steal the Third World’s whole water supply – it’s less trouble than drilling for oil.

    As for entropy, with all that extra water vapour in the air – surely it would have an effect of some sort?

    And what would the oil people do if you refused to buy their gas/petrol?

  22. Sven Røgeberg says:

    George Monbiot attacks the film planet of humans:

    «There are also some genuine and difficult problems with renewable energy, particularly the mining of the necessary materials. But the film’s attacks on solar and wind power rely on a series of blatant falsehoods. It claims that, in producing electricity from renewables, “You use more fossil fuels to do this than you’re getting benefit from it. You would have been better off just burning fossil fuels in the first place”. This is flat wrong. On average, a solar panel generates 26 units of solar energy for every unit of fossil energy required to build and install it. For wind turbines the ratio is 44 to one.

    Planet of the Humans also claims that you can’t reduce fossil fuel use through renewable energy: coal is instead being replaced by gas. Well, in the third quarter of 2019, renewables in the UK generated more electricity than coal, oil and gas plants put together. As a result of the switch to renewables in this country, the amount of fossil fuel used for power generation has halved since 2010. By 2025, the government forecasts, roughly half our electricity will come from renewables, while gas burning will drop by a further 40%. To hammer home its point, the film shows footage of a “large terminal to import natural gas from the United States” that “Germany just built”. Germany has no such terminal. The footage was shot in Turkey.»
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/07/michael-moore-far-right-climate-crisis-deniers-film-environment-falsehoods

    • Hide-away says:

      This is plainly no true…”On average, a solar panel generates 26 units of solar energy for every unit of fossil energy required to build and install it.”

      The EROEI for solar depends on several factors, including the location and insolation hours of the solar site. The cheapest, in terms of energy spent, location for solar is on roof tops. However it is also probably the lowest return of energy for solar, because of shading, higher cloud levels, pollution etc in cities.

      The best location for solar is in deserts, with 8 hours plus of sunshine per day, however the cost of installation (in energy terms) is a much higher due to the infrastructure that needs to be built.

      In terms of resource use (in the solar panels), deserts make a much better location for solar than rooftops, because of much better spread of solar insolation throughout the year, probably doubling (or more) the energy return for the same resource use. The energy cost of the infrastructure to build solar in deserts, is more a one off if done correctly (transmission lines, ground holding support structures, etc).

      The EROEI for solar on rooftops in cities is closer to 10/1, while in deserts is closer to 20/1 (excluding initial infrastructure energy costs), neither number close to George’s 26/1.

      Of course most discussion about a solar/wind renewable future seems moot now that the system has crashed due to the catalyst setting off coll.apse….

    • aNN says:

      Gail, this is why you are getting warnings for your content. Bye.

      • Covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        thank you for that reply…

        I have not done it, but is seems probable that a reader or two here might have reported this site for the content in this “comments section”, not in the OFW articles…

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Really? What could possibly be offensive in the comments section?

          Maybe some G3T fans are … upset?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I am sure I can spare another one for Geeetaaaaa…. plenty more where that came from

        Shall we talk about that Al Gore guy – the one who has convinced billions that solar and wind are the way forward… because if we continue to burn FF we will burn up the planet….

        Question: are the above bigger scams than the Death Flu?

        What’s your take… aNN?

    • Tim Groves says:

      Climate change exposes progress as a myth

      By George Monbiot. Published in the Guardian 14th February 2005

      It is now mid-February, and already I have sown eleven species of vegetable. I know, though the seed packets tell me otherwise, that they will flourish. Everything in this country – daffodils, primroses, almond trees, bumblebees, nesting birds – is a month ahead of schedule. And it feels wonderful. Winter is no longer the great grey longing of my childhood. The freezes this country suffered in 1982 and 1963 are – unless the Gulf Stream stops – unlikely to recur. Our summers will be long and warm.

      How well did that prediction work out, George? Fifteen years on, the Gulf Stream has not stopped. How have daffodils, primroses, almond trees, bumblebees and nesting birds been in Blighty this last few Valentine’s Days?

      Hint; across the UK, February temperatures currently average a daily high of 7 degrees Celsius (45 degrees Fahrenheit) and a low of 1 °C (34 °F). How did your seed vegetables do this February, George? You demented, clueless, stereotypic* old moonbat!

      What is stereotypic behaviour?
      Stereotypic behaviour has been defined as a repetitive, invariant behaviour pattern with no obvious goal or function. A wide range of animals, from canaries to polar bears to humans can exhibit stereotypes. Many different kinds of stereotyped behaviours have been defined and examined. Examples include crib-biting and wind- sucking in horses, eye-rolling in veal calves, sham-chewing in pigs, jumping in bank voles, and waffling on and on about renewable energy and rewilding in moonbats. Stereotypes may be oral or involve bizarre postures or prolonged locomotion.
      A good example of stereotyped behaviour is pacing. This term is used to describe an animal walking in a distinct, unchanging pattern within its cage. The walking can range in speed from slow and deliberate to very quick trotting. It may involve only a few circuits or it may be prolonged, lasting several minutes. The locomotion may be combined with other actions, such as a head toss at the corners of the cage, or the animal rearing onto its hind feet at some point in the circuit. The pattern and appearance of the stereotype differs from animal to animal. Stereotypes often go through stages of development. In the early stages, the behaviour may be easily interrupted by a loud noise or other stimulus. At later stages, such interruption is difficult or impossible. At this stage, stimuli can even escalate performance of the behaviour. The animal can appear to be in a trance-like state, disconnected or detached from its surroundings.

      BANG! George! BANG! BANG! BANG!

  23. Fast Eddy says:

    Home page SCMP

    Calls from online nationalists for an invasion of Taiwan have been growing in recent weeks. Photo: ReutersCalls from online nationalists for an invasion of Taiwan have been growing in recent weeks.
    Calls from online nationalists for an invasion of Taiwan have been growing in recent weeks.

    China tries to calm ‘nationalist fever’ calling for Taiwan invasion

    Loud calls on social media urge Beijing to strike while world is busy with coronavirus crisis, but observers say the authorities do not want to be rushed

    A recent article in an influential Communist Party journal drew on parallels with the 17th century conquest of the island to highlight need for patience

    • beidawei says:

      Any foreigners who would like to assist Taiwan, like the Lincoln Brigade from the Spanish Civil War, are welcome to join my new militia: the Nixon-Carter Brigade.Our battle flag will feature a snarling Hello Kitty, baring her claws.

      (For the clueless: it’s funny, because Nixon went to China, and Carter switched diplomatic recognition to them.)

      • Tim Groves says:

        That Hello Kitty will scare the pants off the Chicoms.

        Japan would like to help Taiwan out, since it was the only country to kindly buy a Shinkansen express railway. But those Chicoms are fearsome! And the formerly plucky Japanese have lost their fighting spirit as a result of all those Hollywood WW2 movies.

  24. Fast Eddy says:

    How disappointing … no normies have responded to my quiz…

    What’s wrong normies?????

    Oh I see — if you respond then you admit to being a normie…. ok – let’s just remove that condition – anyone can respond

    • beidawei says:

      You asked why Bali has few cases. I don’t have the answer, would be interested to know it, and am reluctant to leap to a conclusion (especially one involving c. theories).

    • beidawei says:

      Oh, your other question was about one of the US news channels faking a COVID line. No, I don’t think the story is terribly substantial. It is interesting more for what it reveals about journalism than about COVID.

  25. fas says:

    Hahaha – who’s afraid of the big bad Wuhan the big bad Wuhan who’s afraid of the big bad Wuhan Tra la la la la

    Hong Kong last night:

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1258976838254161922

  26. Marco Bruciati says:

    In Germania in factory of meat of pigs a lot of positive. Another case scenario as Tyson in usa. Soon shortage of meat and prosciutto

  27. Tim Groves says:

    Why are doctors being “pressurized to add COVID” to death certificates? Why are Google and Facebook cracking down on dissenting opinions on this issue? Why is YouTube removing anything that would go against World Health Organization guidelines?

    Excellent reporting from Tucker Carlson.

    https://youtu.be/sPrbGU0Wyh4

    • Fast Eddy says:

      FOX = Voice of Reason.

    • This video, and the ideas in the Atlantic article, are very disturbing.

      People keep remarking to me that my articles are now raising flags on Microsoft’s Defender SmartScreen saying, “This site has been reported as unsafe.”

      It doesn’t have a virus; it just is saying things that people don’t want you to read or think about.

      • Tsubion says:

        interesting

        you do realise that thousands of truth tellers have been shadow banned, kicked off all the major social media platforms, had their payment apps shut down with no refunds, for many years already and it’s getting worse

        some content creators resort to recieving checks and cash by snail mail because you can also be shut down at the level of hosting companies, dns providers and yes banks!

        youtube, paypal, patreon, twitter, and many more are all guilty of this illegal activity

        and all it takes is for an algo to flag some content on your site or for individuals with an axe to grind to do it manually

        then you have to think about your online neighborhood – so all the sites you link to and that link to you – almighty goggle frowns on poor neighborhood hygiene and ranks you accordingly

        wherever there is freedom of opinion tyranny will come knocking with lockdowns and shutdowns

  28. Minority Of One says:

    Three videos which give a pretty good summary where we are at with the COVID-19 farce. All been posted here already, the forth is some alternative music.

    The first video is George Carlin humour but the very beginning and the very end hit the nail on the head. Nearly all pole are actually pretty stupid (George talks about Americans, but it is the same everywhere), and elections are all about fooling people in to thinking they have a say in how society is run.

    The second video keeps getting removed from YT, different source here.

    The third really needs watching a couple of times because it contains so much info, but is the best explanation i have seen of how we got here.

    Video three does not explain the end game. It hints at power and profits, but I am left wondering, are The Powers That be oblivious to the economic and financial chaos they have caused, or is this part of the plan? A couple of weeks ago in one of his daily YT videos, Mike Maloney suggested the USA government was investing so much money in different parts of the USA economy, to keep it afloat, it looked like it was becoming a centralised economy just like the former Soviet Union.
    Is that the end game?

    1/ Life Is Worth Losing – Dumb Americans – George Carlin
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLODGhEyLvk&feature=youtu.be

    2/ PLANDEMIC Part 1 (Dr. Judy Mikovits)
    https://videos.utahgunexchange.com/watch/plandemic-part-1-dr-judy-mikovits_WtI2RQjupp9lcRO.html

    3/ Global Health Mafia Protection Racket
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HJ_ZqvAT6lk

    4/ Moodswings – Spiritual High – Original 12″ – 1990

    • ITEOTWAWKI says:

      OMG I had the album…So funny you would post this song, I listened to it last week…..Lately, I have been revisiting songs (such as this one), movies (such a the original Star Wars trilogy), foods (such as red licorice, which I had not eaten in a good 35 years) that have marked my life, as I truly believe the end is near, so I have been in reminiscing mode for the past couple of months.

      The song featured in the Janet Fonda 1992 movie Single White Female in the credits scene…I remember going to HMV (remember them?) the very next day to buy the Moodswings album (EXCELLENT!!)….the part with Chrissie Hynde’s magical voice is also absolutely beautiful, as is the part with Martin Luther King famous speech

      Part of the song featuring the Chrissie Hynde part:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cHxiaYBt-4

      The Martin Luther King part:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgbeXVAPW64

      And the full stunning version of the song:

      • ITEOTWAWKI says:

        Bridget Fonda not Jane Fonda was in Single White Female!

      • Xabier says:

        As for governments, they have a lot of data, and some models (of the dullest kind!) but are neither omniscient nor omnicompetent.

        Bureaucrats and politicians are all far removed from the realities of smaller businesses and all the lives suddenly destroyed by the lock-downs.

        Although there are some indications of a growing awareness of what they may have done. and the long-term effects.

  29. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    Just to salute our very own hard, working CEO Chairwoman and founder of OFW blog, author, educator, and Peacemaker…a very Pleasant, Wonderful BAU Mother’s Day…Enjoy ypur DAY😘

  30. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    AND ANOTHER THING..
    Mike Rowe says many American workers feel labeled ‘nonessential’ by coronavirus lockdowns
    By Victor Garcia | Fox News
    Rowe, the host of “Dirty Jobs” and other shows, weighed in on the coronavirus situation during an appearance on Fox News’ “Watters’ World” with host Jesse Watters.
    “We’ve taken this incredibly complicated situation and we’ve treated it as if it’s the same from sea to shining sea,” Rowe told Watters. “We treat the whole country like it was a hot spot. And virtually every citizen as though they were infected. And we did it in the name of safety
    “You’ve got 33 million people right now sitting on the sidelines who have essentially been told they are non-essential. That pisses people off,” Rowe said. “No one wants to be told, even though they’re grateful for the people who are keeping the lights on, no one wants to be told they don’t matter. And that’s what we’re doing when we draw the line between essential and nonessential.

    “A big chunk of the country is feeling alienated and I don’t blame them,” Rowe said

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=I41-7eTeI6g

  31. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    Glad I didn’t escape to a chain of Island Paradise to end my BAU Party Days!😜
    Seems ANY Small island will be a horrible choice to plant oneself in collapse…nowhere else to escape to except the open water!!!
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JCvoLkUMYgc
    “Our life is in danger because, of course, we don’t know what will happen,” she said. “There’s no real hope for good things in the future.”
    Hawaii is facing it’s highest unemployment rate ever as strict stay-at-home orders and a virtual shutdown of the state’s once mighty tourism industry have left residents reeling, leaning on their savings or unable to pay rent and feed their families. Since March, the state’s unemployment rate has soared from 3% to 34%, one of the highest in the nation.
    The pain has been widespread, with charities encountering unprecedented requests for food and assistance and small business owners grappling with plummeting profits. The state’s struggles to keep up with unemployment claims even prompted some residents to come out and threaten violence against state workers.
    Roughly 216,000 of the state’s 660,000 workers were employed in jobs supported by tourism in 2019. Airline arrivals to Hawaii have nosedived from more than 30,000 passengers per day to 756. Food service workers, who make up roughly 13% of all employees in the state and earn a median annual income of about $30,000, lost wages as restaurants closed and hotels shuttered.
    Hawaii is one of the most expensive places to live in the US
    Honolulu City Councilmember Kymberly Pine said she and other lawmakers have for years warned about the state economy’s overdependence on tourism.
    “It really showed how unprepared our state was for this kind of crisis,” she said. “We are going to need to prepare for a lot of people losing their homes, not being able to pay their rentals.

    https://news.yahoo.com/life-danger-hawaii-battles-record-120502186.html

    Yep, STAY clear of any Island!

    • Xabier says:

      Shows that it is all relative: tourism is essential in so many places now. An obvious fact, but so many still think it is a frivolity and nothing more.

      • ITEOTWAWKI says:

        How will the PIGS survive…Greece has 20% of it’s GDP that is derived from tourism, and with the multiplier effect probably much higher than that….what will the country do this year, where instead of getting 30 million visitors, the get a tiny fraction of that…and how do they re-open the country to foreigners without risking a resurgence of Covid-19 cases, which up to now the government has done an amazing job of limiting the cases…Greece cannot afford even less a disaster à la Spain or Italy…it is a HUGE clustrf.ck!!!

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Oh this is not a problem — Greece will follow the NZ model and keep the borders closed for a decade or whatever it takes until Covid is eliminated globally…. and then if another flu surfaces they will do it all again.

          Where is Adam Sandler when we need him!

      • Fast Eddy says:

        For most countries killing tourism is significant enough to put them into an endless, deep recession…. which if unchecked… would cause them to collapse

        • We talk about the core and the periphery. Tourists go visit the periphery, while the core is where the work gets done. If any part survives after collapse, it seems like it has to be the core, rather than the periphery.

          Of course, there is a possibility that some new small economy can spring up. But it can only rely on local resources, since no one else will visit.

          • Ed says:

            Gail, this line of reasoning is not obvious to me. The core is the most needy of massive inputs from outside. Given an Amish farming town in Pennsylvania versus Manhattan I pick the farmers as surviving collapse.

            • The farmers are in the core. So are the Amish. I am doubtful the big cities can make it.

              Hawaii and New Zealand are not.

            • Kim says:

              It depends on what stage of the collapse you are looking at. I think this is like a tsunami. At first, the water all gets dragged out away from the shore and gathered up, but then it gets sent back into the shore.

              In the modern world, resources will initially be marshalled and distributed in the centres, as they are now, but the centres do not produce energy and the countryside cannot support them, so ultimately they will collapse and energy (food) production will be the job again of the countryside.

              Of course, that will be the end for all but the few.

          • Tsubion says:

            certain “experts” have been pushing distributed, decentralised, digital economies for many many years

            what they never mention is the enormous amount of resources, maintenance, specialists and plain old luck required to keep even the most basic of services running

            and server farms are anything but basic – ai supercomputers are not basic – power stations – even roads and cables are not trivial – and then there’s shipping and air travel

            today i have technicians hooking up a new cable in the street – i have no idea what it’s for and i’m seriously wondering if i will ever benefit from it in any way – could be fiber – could be 5G – but i’m really beyond caring

            they’re also fixing the wind turbines up on the hill as they are constantly breaking down – keeps the techs busy i guess

            technology is being foisted on us whether we want it or not – cashless society – mandatory vaccination + microchipping – total surveillance

            in chinese schools children wear electronic headbands to monitor how focussed they are

            seriously – what kind of world are they trying to create?

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Stay clear of the radiation….. and good luck with that

      • Kim says:

        I figure that some people in the southern hemisphere will survive the radiation. Especially people who live in mountainous regions and gorges. Deep river valleys with farmable soil in the southern hemipshere should be safe. New Guinea. Some parts of Java and Sumatra. Peru for sure. The Amazon. I also expect people to have chance in northern australia. Lots of hunting, lots of rain, a long way from spent fuel rods.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Oh I dunno about that…. radiation has a habit of spreading a long way with air currents… and when you are talking about literally thousands of years of intense plumes of the stuff I am thinking it will get into just about every crack and crevice…..

          It’s nice to think wishfully though….

  32. Marco Bruciati says:

    I ask to all. What u think about per food? They Need cheap chikens cheap grains. Cheap transport. I think Will not be more per food cheap

    • Ed says:

      I worry that even though all the needed inputs still exist the disruption of the flow will significantly lower the scale and hence the economy of scale. Making all food expensive expect what you can buy directly from your local farmer.

  33. Yoshua says:

    The British government is divided between hawks and doves on the Coronavirus.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/boris-johnson-sided-doves-over-hawks-lockdown?__twitter_impression=true

    • Xabier says:

      For once, a good and detailed article worth reading, regarding internal government debates on easing restrictions in the UK. Great find, thank you.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Oh that’s just infotainment for the masses…

      There is no dissension within the UK government — they were briefed about the imminent collapse and informed that b) was the best option.

      b) is the best option — does anyone really want extreme violence and cannibalism over a nice peaceful death from starvation (and possibly Fenties)…

  34. adonis says:

    lets do a little survey who has had the flu shot on ofw ? if u have had it you believe it’s good for you if u have not had it you believe it’s bad for you . i have not had it .

    • Robert Firth says:

      I have not had a flu shot. I have never had a flu shot. When growing up in the 1950s I learned the hard way that my best defence is the immune system, and I have trusted it ever since. I am trusting it now.

    • Tim Groves says:

      I’ve never had a flu and I believe it could be bad for you, depending what’s in it.

      I’ve not had influenza in over four decades since I was a teenager. I get a cold about once every five years on the average, and I had one in December 2018 the main symptom of which was a burning dry sore throat resembling what is reported in mild COVID-19 infections.

      I know people who have a flu shoot every year and wouldn’t be without it. An 80-year-old American friend in particular believes it offers him some protection against pneumonia, which can be a killer at his age.

      • Tim Groves says:

        To clarify that opening line: I’ve never had a flu shot and…..

      • Fast Eddy says:

        For most people living beyond 80 is just more misery— most of them are disease riddled and living in pain due to a live of Big Gulps and KFC… most.. not all.

        Pneumonia is a blessing

    • Lidia17 says:

      I am 60 years old. Never had the flu shot; never had the flu.

      • Jarle says:

        How do you know you never had it? Many get infected but have no/light symptoms …

        • Tim Groves says:

          Good point!

          My take, Influenza is a disease. The influenza virus is a pathogen.

          If you are infected with the pathogen but don’t have any symptoms, you don’t have the disease.

          I’m apparrently riddled with chickenpox virus, varicella-zoster—also known as human alphaherpesvirus 3 (HHV-3), but I haven’t had chickenpox since i was seven years old. One day it may hit me with herpes or shingles though.

        • Lidia17 says:

          If a tree falls in the forest and no one’s there to hear it, does it make a sound?

          We are crawling with innumerable species of little buggers. If they exact no discernible toll, who cares?

        • Fast Eddy says:

          I’ve probably had the flu — but it was a sniffle… so I dismissed it as a common cold…

          I may have had Wuhan… I was in Hong Kong in December…. but like most people who get Wuhan… I didn’t feel sick.

        • beidawei says:

          My biggest medical problem is stool quality, after eating the whole tub of ice cream. Why are no resources being spent to combat this modern scourge?

    • Jarle says:

      TB etc = yes, flu = no. Up here as elsewhere in the west flu vaccines are heavily pushed but the people I know who get the shot doesn’t get less “flues” than those I know who don’t so where am I supposed to get my motivation from?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I was getting a check up a few years ago and sitting in the waiting room listening to a couple of old guys talk about how sick they were after they got flu jabs….

        • Tsubion says:

          formaldehyde – latex – lactose – aluminum – baby parts – egg proteins – assorted animal cells – live cancer viruses – other ingredients

          and yes… the virus itself

          some people have allergic response to all kinds of things – fancy that

          couldn’t possibly be from the vaccines now could it?

    • JesseJames says:

      Caught the flu once in the early 80s….it put me flat on my back in hrs.
      Never had a flu shot….never will.
      Keep your immune system healthy.

    • Ed says:

      Have never had a flu shot, have never had the flu. I consider all vaccines highly dangerous and will not take any. Did have the few that were required back in the 60s for children. Age 62.

    • Slow Paul says:

      I take flu shots every year because of my line of work. Hasn’t affected me much I think. I mostly take it because I believe in “herd immunity” and it is frowned upon to decline 🙂

    • I have had pretty much all of the recommended immunizations. Kaiser “pushes” them. I have had flu shots every year. I have had the new shingles series of two shots. I have also had some kind of pneumonia immunization.

      I don’t ever remember getting the flu, with or without shots. I get very few colds. When I do get them, I usually get over them quickly.

  35. Xabier says:

    Hilarious: the UK govt. wants to get everyone going to work on (rented) e-scooters, due to the dangers of public transport in the Age of The Virus.

    I look forward to seeing all the disgusting Fatty Brits wobbling along.

    What a shock for the working class, no motor no more….. Oh well, you had a good run since the 1950’s.

    One could make a case for this supporting the Controlled Demolition theory?

    The only thing to do is be entertained by this utter joke of a country. It’s both very painful and amusing to watch the spokespeople who are wheeled out to give us the latest policy developments and death toll.

  36. rufustiresias999 says:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/may/09/im-losing-my-teenage-years-young-contend-with-life-in-lockdown-coronavirus

    Teenagers complain the lock down steals their teenage life. Who’s gonna tell them how the limits to growth will maybe steal most of their life (at least how they expect it) ? Their twenties, their thirties,…

    And, by the way, I’m feel sorry for them, I don’t agree with those who bash them like they are spoiled, snowflakes, etc. I have teenage children and nephaews and I think about friend’s children. I feel so much angst for all the children.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      The good news is…. there will be no life to steal…. if not for the CDP they would already be dead.

      So they should enjoy the brief time we have left …

      Oh and I would highly recommend not bothering with those online lessons.

      • Unless the online lessons are fun and enjoyable.

      • Gabe says:

        What would have happened if not for CDP?

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Global economic collapse — the riots we have been seeing would have gotten completely out of control – supply chain would have busted — hunger violence cannibalism etc

          Difficult to kill and eat your neighbour when you are cowering in fear of the flu and happily locking down

  37. Fast Eddy says:

    Hong Kong needs more covids!!! There have been protests all day long in various malls https://freehk.live/

  38. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The global oil market witnessed a doomsday scenario on April 20… The oil prices have since rebounded. Market sentiment, however, is still fragile and oil price continues a volatile trajectory.”

    https://www.pressreader.com/singapore/the-straits-times/20200510/282870847994480

  39. Harry McGibbs says:

    “…the coronavirus pandemic has left the US economy in its most vulnerable state in almost a century.

    “These photos reveal how desolate the country looked during the Great Depression, when food and job lines stretched for blocks.”

    https://www.insider.com/great-depression-photos-of-america-unemployment-2020-5

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      ^^^Suggested musical accompaniment – a modern version of a Depression-era classic. Seems apposite:

  40. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Our analysis suggests that these changes in the world economy make a V-shaped recovery from the recession unlikely. Most international organisations such as the IMF and the OECD assume a V-shaped recovery in their outlook for the next year. This narrative may have been influenced by the experience of the great recession of 2008/2009, in which Global Value Chains recovered quickly after the crisis.

    “But our analysis suggests that this recession is different.”

    https://voxeu.org/article/how-covid-19-transforming-world-economy

  41. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Over 3,000 people rallied in Munich and thousands more gathered in Stuttgart and across Germany on Saturday to demand the lifting of restrictions ordered by the German authorities.

    “Many of the protesters defied the guidelines which call for a limited number of participants and for social distancing to be maintained during such events.”

    https://www.dw.com/en/germany-thousands-of-protesters-slam-isolation-measures/a-53382891

  42. Harry McGibbs says:

    “A huge crowd of protesters have clashed with police while breaking social distancing laws during a rally about Victoria’s coronavirus lockdown [Australia].

    “Victorian residents frustrated by the state’s relatively severe lockdown measures were joined by conspiracy theorists including anti-vaxxers and those who blame the global pandemic on 5G technology.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8304393/Hundreds-anti-vaxxers-clash-police-protest-Melbournes-CBD.html

  43. fred_goes_bush says:

    In his latest post Dmitry Orlov says the pandemic (that’s not a pandemic) is part of a strategy to crash the economy and reduce oil usage, in order to eke out a bit more time before oil production crashes. It also gives a viable excuse for an economic crash, because if you have to tell the sheeple, oil is kaput so game over folks, they’ll just go batshit.

    A key reason is that it’s close to the end game for US Shale, which has bridged the oil production vs consumption gap (even though it’s only ever lost money) since peak traditional oil occurred circa 2005.

    I sort of believed Dmitry, but not in a visceral way.

    Then I read that Exxon’s corporate debt has gone through the roof, because they’ve been borrowing cash to pay shareholder dividends, as their business is now cash negative. Presumably that’s a last gasp effort to keep the share price up and help insiders cash out.

    Then this presentation from 2016 http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Systemic-Change-Rev-7.pdf popped onto the radar. It focuses on the energy required to extract usable oil and paints a bleak picture.

    Briefly it says that the energy required to extract one barrel of ready-for-use oil, after you account for all the exploration, extraction, refining and transport energy costs is fast approaching one barrel oil. Soon (it says circa 2022) there will be zero net energy gain from oil extraction. Ouch!

    A lot of the research originated from B.W, Hill of Hills Group, whose site has now disappeared off the web.

    The ex-ArchDruid persuaded me that collapse would be slow, but if your primary energy supply disappears because it costs more energy to produce oil than the energy you get from it, that seems like a game changer for a society that’s totally reliant on it.

    I guess we could start producing oil from coal on a large scale and apply various other mitigation strategies, but the best case still looks like a big step down the collapse slope . . . hold on a sec . . . isn’t that what’s happening here . . . ?

    Gail, one of your graphs is in the presentation. Have you been involved in that research/study? Any comments?

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Orlov can have the CDP theory … I don’t mind … I don’t need money – or credit… why would God 700IQ need any of that?

      • el mar says:

        CDP?

        • rufustiresias999 says:

          Controlled Degrowth Process?
          I’d like to believe this theory. It would be very wise, and smart. The least painful way.

          • beidawei says:

            Why would hundreds of countries (and within countries, politicians and political parties) who hate each other cooperate in order to pull one over on…just about everybody, really? (Except Orlov, of course.) I mean, how would you even go about organizing such a thing? And how do you persuade the medical people to play along?

            • beidawei—-questions like that will upset people

              best not to ask

            • Tim Groves says:

              Actually, it would only take a small number of insiders who could keep a straight face while telling the most enormous porkies, provided of course that Stanley Kubrick was on hand to direct it. 🙂

            • Ed says:

              beidawei, I keep wondering about this. A perfect world wide unified story by all governments, except one Sweden. I guess that it what the CIA is for, go along or we kill you, your kids and grand kids. But that does not work on Russia and China. But it does work on Sweden. Hard to make a sensible story line.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Controlled Demolition Theory (CDT)

              – CBs pushing on strings – collapse imminent
              – Civil unrest spreading – no way to appease people who cannot afford to live
              – Unrest eventually leads to total chaos and extreme violence – that would set off a massive global collapse
              – Unload a flu virus centre of China pre CNYr (biggest migration of the year about to start)
              – Nobel Prize Winner insists Wuhan made in lab https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/french-prof-sparks-furor-with-lab-leak-theory/ (he is now being slammed as a conspiracy theorist)
              – Exaggerate the dangers of the Wuhan (45M people got the flu in 2017 winter in US – 800k in hospital – 61k dead) including lumping non Wuhan deaths into Wuhan
              – Sow Fear – lock people down – massive fines if you break lockdown – in some places they shoot you – riots stop.
              – Always behind the curve on response — stop flights but only after the virus is established — no force quarantines for arrivals (even though we know many are violating)
              – Claim that face coverings are useless (blatant lie)
              – Lockdowns futile – many virologists are saying you cannot lockdown a virus — it will immediately resurge if you stop the lockdown — so you can never unlock (goal is to get people to stay in their homes no matter what happens)
              – Massive stimulus is released delaying the imminent collapse – need the virus as the reason otherwise the sheeple panic —also can point to virus and say ‘this is temporary’ we will be back to BAU in a few months (keep sheep hopeful)
              – Global economy can only hold together for so long in spite of the trillions being unleashed…. so in the near future something just snaps
              – Sheeple are told – you must remain in lockdown – we will ensure food will get to you — anyone who breaks quarantine dealt with harshly (shoot a few of them?) and the masses will blow kisses to the soldiers who are ‘keeping them safe’ as these assholes refuse to follow the rules and ‘flatten the curve’
              – The food does not arrive – but it will come ‘tomorrow’ guaranteed – the sheeple believe….
              – The food does not arrive – the sheeple weaken — but they still believe so they do not revolt
              – The food does not arrive — the sheeple give up – lie down — die .. civilization ends
              – How do you get so many leaders to buy into this? You tell them we are fucked so there are two options: a ) economic collapse certain along with total chaos – violence, cannibalism, etc… or b) total collapse certain but in a controlled manner where we lock people down and we dramatically reduce the suffering. If I am the PM of NZ — I am choosing b.

            • Minority Of One says:

              I don’t think politicians are in-the-know. They have been hood-winked (politicians, with a very few exceptions, are sheople just like everyone else) and are being lead by the short and curlies. But as you say FE, the economic/financial damage has already been done, I see centrally-planned economies and fascist states being the next steps.

              Here in the UK we are a fascist state already. Julian Assange has been sitting in the UK’s highest security prison for over a year now, currently serving no sentence. The UK MSM have avoided reporting any news of Assange ever since he completed his sentence (for jumping bail) a few months ago. The MSM invariably said he was charged with rape whenever they did report on him, when the two women in question never accused him of any such thing.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Oh they are in the know …

              I just listened to Ardern try to convince me that face coverings are useless… that in spite of the fact that loads of virologists have stated they are very effective

              University of Otago epidemiologist Michael Baker said the country could use a few more weeks under level 3.

              “People have lost their livelihoods over this, and we have to just make it worthwhile. And that means keeping your physical distance for a few more weeks, until we have a nice, clear patch of no infections. And then the big prize of that effort is that we can go back to life almost as normal.”

              Baker said people would need to be extra vigilant in a lower alert level, whenever it went ahead.

              He also said a mask should be mandatory for all public transport as a key line of defence.

              https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300009227/coronavirus-decision-looms-on-moving-to-alert-level-2

              https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cloth-face-cover-faq.html

              I could forgive G3T for not forcing people to wear them … but to tell people not to bother wearing them because they are useless…

              Well something is wrong with that picture.

              She is up to something… well part of something.

        • Lidia17 says:

          Controlled Demolition Plan?

    • Ano737 says:

      I think that if you include the cost of refining and transport, you need to look at the price of the refined products rather than the price of crude, which is obviously much higher, even under current depressed conditions. Also, when the economy opens up around the world, fuel prices will go up and if shale subsidies end, further still. The long term economics of oil is still not good, as Gail has been ably explaining for years, but we’re not quite done yet. Timing predictions about changes for such a vast and complex system as IC are downright silly.

    • Minority Of One says:

      FGB

      >>I guess we could start producing oil from coal on a large scale

      I doubt this is possible. The amount of coal easily / economically extractable has been exaggerated for along time, just like with oil. There was a lot of talk about coal-to-Oil conversion between 2000-2010, and a very few countries had plans for it, most notably, at the time, Australia. India had big plans too, but they went nowhere – due to lack of coal. CTL did not go very far quite simple because the upfront capital costs were huge. Plus up until 2008 the price of coal was going up in tandem with the price of oil, so it made no sense to make liquid fuels from coal when it was much less expensive from oil.

      Wikipedia has a summary of global CTL projects. What is noticeable is that the few non-USA projects are all tiny, and the large majority of the USA projects are delayed/cancelled.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_liquefaction#Coal_liquefaction_plants_and_projects

      I cannot see any scenario where CTL could be economical. But if coal is all a country has (versus oil), then they might go for CTL whatever the cost, like Nazi Germany did.

    • A lot of people use my charts. I don’t have any direct connection with that PDF.

      I have had some difficulty with these reports because it is really all types of energy that are important. Coal and natural gas are important because they are relatively cheaper than oil. It is not really oil used to get oil; it is a mix of energy products. And it is the fact that the government needs to take quite a large share of the proceeds.

      We are dealing with a networked system. The workers are not able to earn a high enough income, because there is not enough to go around. Governments can’t collect enough taxes. I agree that the system is no longer working. We can call this “average EROEI of all energy products” is too low for the system. I would be happier with this description than describing the problem as in oil problem, per se. The economic system is not getting a sufficient supply of cheap energy, so it is in the process of collapsing. The question is which parts of the system it takes with it.

      By the way, coal has just as much difficulty as oil, so it cannot be substituted for oil. Renewables aren’t working either, except for burnt biomass.

      • Tsubion says:

        thanks for clarifying

        burnt biomass it is then!

        i like the focus on oil because without transportation the arteries of the host would dry up and starve the major organs

  44. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Businesses need a similar solution – to shelter in place without the threat of default, bankruptcy, or collapse. We are navigating without a roadmap or historic precedent. Instituting a Big Freeze may well provide a path through this quagmire.

    “The Big Freeze economic theory suggests freezing all time-related fixed expenses – such as rent or mortgage payments, health insurance – and supporting businesses to temporarily close. It provides a Universal Basic Income (UBI) to individuals, together with temporarily increasing marginal taxes for those who haven’t been hurt or may even gain from the situation.

    “The goal is to prevent debt, preserve existing economic infrastructure, protect individuals, and position businesses for a smooth market re-entry when the time is right.”

    https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/financial-freeze-protect-covid19-economic-collapse/

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “A former Bank of England interest rate-setter has warned that the country will have to keep printing money – despite fears this could lead to soaring inflation.

      “David Blanchflower, who sat on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee from 2006 to 2009, told The Mail on Sunday: ‘If it were a real war and we were being invaded, we wouldn’t just raise the white flag because we couldn’t afford it, so debt has to rise. Can we afford to fight the war against the virus? Yes. We have to.'”

      https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-8303899/The-UK-printing-money-says-former-Bank-rate-setter.html?mrn_rm=rta

      • Xabier says:

        He’s quite right: but the sensible thing would be not to ‘declare war’ in the first place!

        Military terminology is ridiculous and misleading applied to a (comparatively weak) pandemic.

        This is NOT a war for national survival by any stretch of the imagination.

        • Tsubion says:

          we need all your munny to fight the neverending

          war on drugs

          war on terror ( also terra )

          war on globbly wobbly

          war on coroni

          war on…. insert next invisible enemy

      • Robert Firth says:

        David Blanchflower should read some history. During the last war, we sent fighter planes to Russia that were badly needed for the defence of the UK and our overseas possessions. Some of those planes had been earmarked for Singapore. You know the rest.

    • So businesses need to shelter in place, with higher taxes on those benefiting from protecting in place to support the failing businesses.

      Next we will hear about solutions for governments. They will all take in each other’s laundry?

Comments are closed.