2021: More troubles likely

Most people expect that the economy of 2021 will be an improvement from 2020. I don’t think so. Perhaps COVID-19 will be somewhat better, but other aspects of the economy will likely be worse.

Back in November 2020, I showed a chart illustrating the path that energy consumption seems to be on. The sharp downturn in energy consumption has occurred partly because the cost of oil, gas and coal production tends to rise, since the portion that is least expensive to extract and ship tends to be removed first.

At the same time, prices that energy producers are able to charge their customers don’t rise enough to compensate for their higher costs. Ultimate customers are ordinary wage earners, and their wages are not escalating as rapidly as fossil fuel production and delivery costs. It is the low selling price of fossil fuels, relative to the rising cost of production, that causes a collapse in the production of fossil fuels. This is the crisis we are now facing.

Figure 1. Estimate by Gail Tverberg of World Energy Consumption from 1820 to 2050. Amounts for earliest years based on estimates in Vaclav Smil’s book Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects and BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy for the years 1965 to 2019. Energy consumption for 2020 is estimated to be 5% below that for 2019. Energy for years after 2020 is assumed to fall by 6.6% per year, so that the amount reaches a level similar to renewables only by 2050. Amounts shown include more use of local energy products (wood and animal dung) than BP includes.

With lower energy consumption, many things tend to go wrong at once: The rich get richer while the poor get poorer. Protests and uprisings become more common. The poorer citizens and those already in poor health become more vulnerable to communicable diseases. Governments feel a need to control their populations, partly to keep down protests and partly to prevent the further spread of disease.

If we look at the situation shown on Figure 1 on a per capita basis, the graph doesn’t look quite as steep, because lower energy consumption tends to bring down population. This reduction in population can come from many different causes, including illnesses, fewer babies born, less access to medical care, inadequate clean water and starvation.

Figure 2. Amounts shown in Figure 1, divided by population estimates by Angus Maddison for earliest years and by 2019 United Nations population estimates for years to 2020. Future population estimated to be falling half as quickly as energy supply is falling in Figure 1. World population drops to 2.8 billion by 2050.

What Is Ahead for 2021?

In many ways, it is good that we really don’t know what is ahead for 2021. All aspects of GDP production require energy consumption. A huge drop in energy consumption is likely to mean disruption in the world economy of varying types for many years to come. If the situation is likely to be bad, many of us don’t really want to know how bad.

We know that many civilizations have had the same problem that the world does today. It usually goes by the name “Collapse” or “Overshoot and Collapse.” The problem is that the population becomes too large for the resource base. At the same time, available resources may degrade (soils erode or lose fertility, mines deplete, fossil fuels become harder to extract). Eventually, the economy becomes so weakened that any minor disturbance – attack from an outside army, or shift in weather patterns, or communicable disease that raises the death rate a bit – threatens to bring down the whole system. I see our current economic problem as much more of an energy problem than a COVID-19 problem.

We know that when earlier civilizations collapsed, the downfall tended not to happen all at once. Based on an analysis by Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov in their book, Secular Cycles, economies tended to first hit a period of stagflation, for perhaps 40 or 50 years. In a way, today’s economy has been in a period of stagflation since the 1970s, when it became apparent that oil was becoming more difficult to extract. To hide the problem, increasing debt was issued at ever-lower interest rates.

According to Turchin and Nefedov, the stagflation stage eventually moves into a steeper “crisis” period, marked by overturned governments, debt defaults, and falling population. In the examples analyzed by Turchin and Nefedov, this crisis portion of the cycle took 20 to 50 years. It seems to me that the world economy reached the beginning of the crisis period in 2020 when lockdowns in response to the novel coronavirus pushed the weakened world economy down further.

The examples examined by Turchin and Nefedov occurred in the time period before fossil fuels were widely used. It may very well be that the current collapse takes place more rapidly than those in the past, because of dependency on international supply lines and an international banking system. The world economy is also very dependent on electricity–something that may not last. Thus, there seems to be a chance that the crisis phase may last a shorter length of time than 20 to 50 years. It likely won’t last only a year or two, however. The economy can be expected to fall apart, but somewhat slowly. The big questions are, “How slowly?” “Can some parts continue for years, while others disappear quickly?”

Some Kinds of Things to Expect in 2021 (and beyond)

[1] More overturned governments and attempts at overturned governments.

With increasing wage disparity, there tend to be more and more unhappy workers at the bottom end of the wage distribution. At the same time, there are likely to be people who are unhappy with the need for high taxes to try to fix the problems of the people at the bottom end of the wage distribution. Either of these groups can attempt to overturn their government if the government’s handling of current problems is not to the group’s liking.

[2] More debt defaults.

During the stagflation period that the world economy has been through, more and more debt has been added at ever-lower interest rates. Much of this huge amount of debt relates to property that is no longer of much use (airplanes without passengers; office buildings that are no longer needed because people now work at home; restaurants without enough patrons; factories without enough orders). Governments will try to avoid defaults as long as possible, but eventually, the unreasonableness of this situation will prevail. The impact of defaults can be expected to affect many parts of the economy, including banks, insurance companies and pension plans.

[3] Extraordinarily slow progress in defeating COVID-19.

There seems to be a significant chance that COVID-19 is lab-made. In fact, the many variations of COVID-19 may also be lab made. Researchers around the world have been studying “Gain of Function” in viruses for more than 20 years, allowing the researchers to “tweak” viruses in whatever way they desire. There seem to be several variations on the original virus now. A suicidal/homicidal researcher could decide to “take out” as many other people as possible, by creating yet another variation on COVID-19.

To make matters worse, immunity to coronaviruses in general doesn’t seem to be very long lasting. According to an October 2020 article, 35-year study hints that coronavirus immunity doesn’t last long. Analyzing other coronaviruses, it concluded that immunity tends to disappear quite quickly, leading to an annual cycle of illnesses such as colds. There seems to be a substantial chance that COVID-19 will return on an annual basis. If vaccines generate a similar immunity pattern, we will be facing an issue of needing new vaccines every year, as we do with the flu.

[4] Cutbacks on education of many kinds.

Many people getting advanced degrees find that the time and expense did not lead to an adequate financial reward afterwards. At the same time, universities find that there are not many grants to support faculty, outside of the STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Math) fields. With this combination of problems, universities with limited budgets make the financial decision to reduce or eliminate programs with reduced student interest and no outside funding.

At the same time, if local school districts find themselves short of funds, they may choose to use distance learning, simply to save money. This type of cutback could affect grade school children, especially in poor areas.

[5] Increasing loss of the top layers of governments.

It takes money/energy to support extra layers of government. The UK is now completely out of the European Union. We can expect to see more changes of this type. The UK may dissolve into smaller regions. Other parts of the EU may leave. This problem could affect many countries around the world, such as China or countries of the Middle East.

[6] Less globalization; more competition among countries.

Every country is struggling with the problem of not enough jobs that pay well. This is really an energy-related problem. Instead of co-operating, countries will tend to increasingly compete, in the hope that their country can somehow get a larger share of the higher-paying jobs. Tariffs will continue to be popular.

[7] More empty shelves in stores.

In 2020, we discovered that supply lines can break, making it impossible to purchase products a person expects. In fact, new governmental rules can have the same impact, for example, if a country bans travel to its country. We should expect more of this in 2021, and in the years ahead.

[8] More electrical outages, especially in locations where reliance on intermittent wind and solar for electricity is high.

In most places in the world, oil products were available before electricity. On the way down, we should expect to see the reverse of this pattern: Electricity will disappear first because it is hardest to maintain a constant supply. Oil will be available, at least as long as is electricity.

There is a popular belief that we will “run out of oil,” and that renewable electricity can be a solution. I do not think that intermittent electricity can be a solution for anything. It works poorly. At most, it acts as a temporary extender to fossil fuel-provided electricity.

[9] Possible hyperinflation, as countries issue more and more debt and no longer trust each other.

I often say that I expect oil and energy prices to stay low, but this doesn’t really hold if many countries around the world issue more and more government debt as a way to try to keep businesses from failing, debt from defaulting, and stock market prices inflated. There is a danger that all prices will inflate, and that sellers of products will no longer accept the hyperinflated currency that countries around the world are trying to provide.

My concern is that international trade will break down to a significant extent as hyperinflation of all currencies becomes a problem. The higher prices of oil and other energy products won’t really lead to any more production because prices of all goods and services will be inflating at the same time; fossil fuel producers will not get any special benefit from these higher prices.

If a significant loss of trade occurs, there will be even more empty shelves because there is very little any one country can make on its own. Without adequate goods, population loss may be very high.

[10] New ways of countries trying to fight with each other.

When there are not enough resources to go around, historically, wars have been fought. I expect wars will continue to be fought, but the approaches will “look different” than in the past. They may involve tariffs on imported goods. They may involve the use of laboratory-made viruses. They may involve attacking the internet of another country, or its electrical distribution system. There may be no officially declared war. Strange things may simply take place that no one understands, without realizing that the country is being attacked.


We seem to be headed for very bumpy waters in the years ahead, including 2021. Our real problem is an energy problem that we do not have a solution for.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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3,373 Responses to 2021: More troubles likely

  1. Tim Groves says:

    Pathogenic Priming?

    James Lyons Weiler Ph.D. of the Institute for Pure and Applied Knowledge, testifies to the Pennsylvania Congress about “Pathogenic Priming” side effects of vaccines, which are specific to their containing bits that correspond to bits already in the human body, which the immune system will be induced to attack after vaccination.

    This is a 14-minute video containing about 10 minutes of testimony. The text below covers the first three minutes:

    “Historically, vaccines for coronaviruses have had a terrible safety record. There is a condition known as “disease enhancement due to pathogenic priming”. This was discovered in vaccinated animals in past vaccine studies when they did conduct vaccine safety studies on animals on coronavirus vaccines. Where animals got more serious disease after being vaccinated, and that’s when they acquired an infection from the wild-type vaccine.More animals got serious conditions and more animals died.

    In my peer reviewed research, … prior to the development of any COVID vaccines, I found that all but one or two of the xx of the proteins in the SARS-Cov2 virus have what we call “unsafe epitopes”—which are parts of proteins that are capable of causing immune conditions—autoimmune conditions. This immune response is against proteins in our own body. This is peer-reviewed research and I’ll be happy to provide the press with a reference afterwards. About a third of the proteins that might be targeted by autoimmune conditions like SARS-Cov2—viral proteins enter the body either through infection or through injection—target the immune system. But from the start, it looks like this virus has evoled the ability to attack our immune system as part of its disease causing capacity.”


    • Tim Groves says:

      Dr. Weiler was speaking sometime late last year. I haven’t discovered exactly when. He said that, “In the Moderna trial, 21% of human subjects are having serious adverse effects from the vaccine in that trial. The other ones haven’t published their data yet.”

      He says his team contacted the vaccine makers, sent them the study, and asked them to consider removing any unsafe epitopes from their vaccines, but “not a single vaccine manufacturer took heed of my warning.”

    • Yorchichan says:

      It is curious that animal studies were skipped this time. I wonder if this is because:

      1) Pharmaceutical companies had a rethink about the ethics of inflicting pain and death on defenseless animals;

      2) The 0.03% Covid-19 death rate in under 65s is so high that the vaccines needed to be distributed as urgently as possible (and fingers crossed the cytokine storm problem won’t happen);

      3) The pharmaceutical companies care more about profits than people’s health;


      4) The vaccines are designed to kill.

      We can probably safely rule out 1 and 2. 3 is a given. The only question mark is 4.

      • Xabier says:

        Clearly, 4.


        5/ They have to consolidate the scam in the first half of 2021, with mass-vaccinations, ready for the roll-out of the bio-metric control system/passports at the end of the year.

        It’s all about maintaining the momentum now.

        • Tim Groves says:

          Clearly, some of us are getting just a teensy weensy bit paranoid. 🙂

          What must Norman be thinking about us?

          Just idle speculation, but if the Elders—inspired by the Deagel forecast and the Georgia Guidstones—decided that they wanted to cull 70% of the population by 2025, how would they go about it?

          Getting the police and the armed forces in every country to transform themselves into death squads would be too problematic. Some countries and some militaries might not go along with the plan and there would be violent resistance from the masses.

          Starvation and famine might do the trick, but will destroy civil society as effectively as death squads would.

          A deadly pandemic might fit the bill, except that it would be an equal opportunity destroyer that would strike at members of the elite as effectively as at non-members. By it’s very nature, a pandemic would be impossible to control.

          Lethal injections would work much better. The poisons could be administered to individuals and the death rate could be controlled by varying their concentration or formula.

          But how to get people to accept potentially lethal injections? Create a fake pandemic and then introduce so-called “vaccines” under the guise of protecting people from said pandemic infection but which would be toxic enough to kill some immediately and a majority within a few years of getting their shots. That might work, if it was fronted by some really credible people.

          • I don’t think that they really have enough control of the situation to think the situation through this way.

            One problem is that the elite may very well die, unless they figure out that taking vitamin D to get a person’s immunity level up is critical. If this fails, a variety of inexpensive drugs seem to be able to work wonders, once a person has COVID-19. Hopefully, these drugs will work on new mutations as well.

            • Xabier says:

              Think of the murderous bank heist scene from the Joker film: many of the elites who enable this will themselves be quite as disposable as the criminals in the film, betraying one another one by one as they get the job done for the Joker.

              A few prominent deaths wouldn’t go amiss, either, and would also reinforce the narrative.

              I suspect, too, that many of them are recommending the vaccines and supporting lock-downs in all sincerity, not having had the full depopulation plan revealed to them adn being quite at sea with the scientific aspects.

              They will have been enticed with the Green narrative, cutting consumption, waste, pollution, embracing pseudo-‘renewables’, etc, to deal with the planetary crisis. And, too, the inevitable and looming crisis of fiat currencies.

              Totalitarian regimes always work through many layers, and hardly anyone has the full picture.

              Vile reptiles as our professional politicians often are, I suspect few of them are capable of genocide.

              Happy to rob us blind, or heartlessly grind us down, but not demons.

            • Yorchichan says:

              Gail, I expect the elite have the finest medical knowledge and treatment at their fingertips and covid-19 is little threat to them. I would certainly never believe they will be taking vaccines themselves, whatever they tell us.

              Xabier, I really enjoy the comments from this new rebellious you. Thanks.

            • Tim Groves says:

              Norman, as you have suspected, I really go in for believing things about what’s going on in the world of men. Insufficient data, disinformation, misinformation, misunderstandings and our propensity as a species for deception including self-deception all work to cloud matters, making accurate knowledge difficult to obtain.

              But on the other hand, we don’t like to admit that we don’t know. That plays to a basic insecurity in the human psyche.

              So we pretend to know more than we know, or we say that we believe something to be the case or not, although we can’t be sure.

            • personally Tim, I believe in individual decency among the vast majority of people, but madness and stupidity in our collective actions.

              (and I no way do I exclude myself from either of those observations)

              In basic terms, humankind has chosen to do battle over essential resources, on order to further the interests of our particular tribe.
              Everything is focussed to that end.

              All other species just fight over the rights to eat and procreate. Only human beings try to control the rights of others to do that. No other species tries to dominate territory other than that within its own physical range. Only human beings do that.

              Now the internet has given all of us the ‘range to dominate’. So we latch onto loony toons philosophies that match our own as closely as possible, and try to spread them around to anyone with a mind to absorb it all.

              And if anyone dares to say BS—then that becomes a ‘pistols at dawn’ affront. I admit to calling it BS all the time. Because most of it is. As is oft repeated by me, collectively we are no more than a murmuration of starlings, but without the awesome beauty.

              With their last breath, idiots deny that Covid exists, while medical staff working kamikaze shifts try to save them.

              First Covid was a conspiracy, now vaccination is a conspiracy.

              Gates wants to take over the world. They are meeting at Davos to collapse the economic system to make slaves of us all.


              The only conspiracy there is to turn the planet into cash. Everything else is a fallout from that.

              That pulls the plug on all the complexities of our current existence of course. Which annoys people. Because their life-philiosophy needs those complexities to justify itself.

              The planet, by definition, cannot be owned.

              I just try to simplify things:

              In the 20th century we had a surplus of cheap energy which we used to try to control human instincts
              In the 21st century we have a surplus of cheap information which we are using to try to control human instincts.

            • TIm Groves says:

              They text gremlin is playing tricks again.

              Norman, as you have suspected, I DON’T really go in for believing things about what’s going on in the world of men. Insufficient data, disinformation, misinformation, misunderstandings and our propensity as a species for deception including self-deception all work to cloud matters, making accurate knowledge difficult to obtain.

            • Tim Groves says:

              This, grammatically suspect but a gem of wisdom nevertheless, from a man I admire greatly:

              The word ‘belief’ is a difficult thing for me. I don’t believe. I must have a reason for a certain hypothesis. Either I know a thing, and then I know it – I don’t need to believe it.

              Carl Jung

          • Jarle says:

            As I have said before, I don’t belive in a coordinated “they”, “elders” or whatever you call it but in many different companies, politicians, groups and individuals making the most out of opportunities as they come along. This is what we are up against, roll up your sleeves and join the struggle for freedom!

            • as I’ve pointed out, there were no conspiracies theories, as far as I could see, in OFW before 2015/16.
              Though all the ‘circumstances’ had existed for 20 or 50 years.

              now conspiracies hoaxes and scams are the OFW bitcoin, growing exponentially, but with no sound foundation in reality.
              No ‘gold standard’ of value.

              I can’t be the only one to have noticed that surely?
              Just like bitcoin, conspiracies grow and multiply the more they are told and retold. Each retelling elevates the insanity to a new level, as suckers give it even more ‘value’ with a few more ‘alternative facts’.
              Certain people are eagerly waiting to ‘buy the lie’, then regurgitate it again to the next ‘buyer’. until gradually only ‘alternative facts’ remain in circulation, so they must be ‘the truth’.

              millions hold the real virus in their hands, the ‘social media’ that is the source of all this ‘instant truth’. It is the emotional comfort food of the unthinker.

              there’s only one conspiracy among the elite ‘they’:

              and that is to turn as much of the planet into cash as fast as possible and by whatever means possible.

              And we mustn’t forget another turn on the key of Tim’s windup spring, which I am always happy to give. In case he thinks I’m daft enough to think he believes it all.

            • Kowalainen says:

              I don’t think freedom equals prosperity. Freedom isn’t the same as a fully replenished Ghawar.

              Cheap energy buys freedom. Now that is a project.


              Make Energy Cheap Again

              Drill baby, drill.


            • hard to tell if you’re serious or not

              oil has no value until it is used, we had a century of it being ‘cheap’ because we had a century of burning it as fast as possible, because there seemed to be limited amounts of it.

              if by some chance we had the same volume again, we couldn’t use it to deliver the same volume of ‘stuff’ because the capacity to ‘absorb’ it isn’t there.

            • Tim Groves says:

              Norman, what’s your take on this Build Back Better slogan that seems to be on the lips and placards and press statements of government types the world over?

              Biden’s doing it. Boris too. The EU’s using it. And the WHO. The slogan was first proposed by the Japanese delegation to the Sendai Conference and was later adopted by the UN. The Japanese are hit by fairly frequent natural disasters and are quite used to building back better.

              But why would so many governments around the world be adopting the same slogan at the same time? Is this some grand conspiracy among the world’s governments or are they just so bereft of imagination that they can’t come up with their own catchy catchphrases?

            • I think—only think–it’s a mantra of desperation. To give hope to the masses. Us.

              as I’ve tried to point out on numerous occasions, politicians are no better or worse that the rest of us. Nice people, unspeakable people. Most run as average. Almost always self serving because they are ultimately human.
              Mostly Harmless, to quote Douglas Adams.

              Hence they ultimately know no more or less than we do, collectively speaking.

              What they fail to grasp, is that over the last 200 years or so, industrial civilisation has inputted an average of 7% pa in raw energy.
              Which means doubling every 10 years or so.

              that is our bottom line.

              and accounts for everything that appeared on our industrial horizon between about 1800 and 2000 on.
              It also accounts for the 7% interest rate investment accounts that banks used to pay. Ultimately the same source of revenue. And why banks pay zilch now.

              But politicians and economists tell us that this is due to ‘human ingenuity’ alone.
              Suddenly we became super clever in the 1700s.
              BS again

              growth there has always been—growth there will always be.

              which is another way of saying ‘build back better.’

              Unfortunately building anything requires energy, but we can no longer input 7% pa. to do it. We no longer have enough surplus energy.

              the average ‘voter’ just doesn’t think in that depth. Or understand where our ‘growth came from.

              a slogan ‘build back better’, has a nice ring to it. that’ll do. and thats as far as it goes.

              As far as ‘better’ is concerned. Few accept that that 7% growth resulted (eventually) in most of us being able to acquire sufficient living sustenance with only an hour or two of actual labour a week.. The rest bought all our leisure activities and nice but non-essential goods.

              In the coming decades, that is going to change. Wages will fall, while food prices will rise. This is why there are now so many food banks already. The ability to earn enough to eat is becoming more difficult, on average.
              We find ourselves in the dangerous position of effectively having had free food delivered to us for a few generations. the average unthinker has been visiting a food bank for the last 50 years or more, without knowing it.

              Cheap surplus energy provided not only universal cheap transport, it provided cheap surplus food

              Now we’re entering a phase where food producers can’t produce food at prices people can afford.
              Which is precisely the protest we are hearing from the oil producers.

              We can’t produce, sell and buy enough ‘stuff’ to keep the economic system moving forward. Robots are not the answer, because robots only produce
              UBI isn’t the answer because handing ‘wages’ to non producers will send inflation through the roof.

            • Artleads says:

              Norman says: “as I’ve pointed out, there were no conspiracies theories, as far as I could see, in OFW before 2015/16.
              Though all the ‘circumstances’ had existed for 20 or 50 years.”

              What ‘circumstances?’ Media madness at the current level? Trump Derangement Syndrome? Widespread certainties about a ‘pandemic’ that a thinking person should see is very hard to understand?

              Did nothing change in the world since 2016 that could require change in how OFW functions?

              Many of us take out bearings from our highly respected host. If our views were in a different universe from hers we wouldn’t be here. Or are most of us so morally reprehensible that we stay on merely to spread indecent conspiracies? That notion might be considered insulting?

              I think we are responding to an unravelling that is REALLY happening, that is unprecedented, that might take us all down faster than we could have guessed. Unfortunately, there is no way to return to 2016.

            • by ‘circumstances’–I mean such as the moon landing and wtc happened well before 2015—yet the conspiracy mania about it did not start to appear in here and everywhere else en masse until fairly recently—my point was to query why that should be.

              and that one ‘conspiracy takes its sustenance from the next.

              Yes, I know people have been making up stories about things like that for years.

              nothing to do with OFW per se. Individuals find an ‘incident’ then look around to find a conspiracy to fit it.
              Then circulate their ‘suspicions’ x millions.
              Indecent conspiracies? Where did that notion come from? I reluctantly repeat nonsense in the hope that it will be seen as nonsense, not to reinforce it.

              Rather like Nigerian princes/crooks/dying millionaires who keep selecting ‘me’ to inherit all their money. Send out a million emails and at least one idiot will take the bait.

              someone in here even suggested that pearl harbour was a ‘conspiracy’ since the aircraft carriers were ‘out at sea’.—that had to have been ‘fixed’.

              media madness at the current level is there because the mad media is in the hands of all of us, As I suggested, that is our most dangerous virus.

              try to imagine a line of thinking that is perhaps stimulated by OFW, but goes beyond OFW?

          • I replied to this on the tail end of someone else’s comment

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Given it is not possible to create a safe effective vaccine in such a short time frame, this theory cannot be ruled out.

            If this is the plan then my wildest dream will soon come true.

            The dumm-assed morons of the world … those who lap up the MSM like thirsty dogs… those who cannot fathom the existence of the Elders…. who believe their elected leaders run the show and would never lie to or harm them…. would experience the consequences of ignoring reality….

            And they’d pay the ultimate price for being ignorant moreons…. they’ll be drowning in their own snot because they believed The Vaccine (Trojan Horse) was going to help the Stay Safe.

            Let the Great Cull of DelusiSTANIs Begin!!! (GCOD or Gee-Cod)

            • Tim Groves says:

              This morning I took our Siamese cat to the veterinarian in a small town about 40km from here. The cat has a problem with bladder stones and this vet has a good reputation for doing the surgery that is sometimes needed.

              However, after doing an ultrasound scan that showed these small stones floating around in the cat’s bladder,the vet told us that the best way to cure this problem is by only feeding the cat special food that makes the urine less alkaline, and that if it works it takes a month or two or even three to have the full effect.

              So we are going with that advice for now.

              While I was in the waiting room, the TV was on. It was a program showing scenes from a recent Diet debate on Covid-19, in which some politicians were arguing for making Covid-19 vaccination mandatory for all Japanese people, and other arguing against. It seems that quite a lot of MPs are against it on grounds of human rights. Also, the Japan Medical Association is officially against on the grounds that there are not enough medical staff available to vaccinate everyone on top of all their usual work, an d the Self-Defense Forces don’t want to get involved because they don’t want to gain a reputation for coercing people.

              I think that if the government really thinks a high rate of vaccination is essential to deal with this pandemic, they should offer everybody 10,000 yen (approx.. $US 100) per jab paid to the EDY shopping card of their choice. That would get the compliance rate up to 70 or 80 percent. This would only cost about a trillion yen, which would be a nice boost to cashless shopping too.

      • I think that the issue was timing primarily. Cost may have entered into it as well.

        The animal study on the SARS-CoV1 virus that I am familiar with was done years after the SARS epidemic.


  2. Yorchichan says:


    I don’t recommend reading the article, it is the BBC after all, but the woman being vaccinated in the photograph looks an awful lot like Tiffany Dover, the Tennessee nurse who collapsed after being vaccinated live on TV and subsequently disappeared never to be heard of again?

    Is Tiffany back from the dead? Are they mocking us?

  3. MG says:


    Learning to sleep in beds could have been crucial to our evolution

    • Xabier says:

      I have most of my best ideas when peeping over the edge of the duvet in the morning: but when I get up, it’s somehow all downhill from there……

      Marcus Aurelius wrote that,as Emperor, he often wished he could just stay in bed.

      • Herbie Ficklestein says:

        I, myself, prefer good pace walking trotting as Nicole Tesla did.
        Claimed he did his best thinking at those times…up to 10 miles a day!
        P.S. one can walk a mile in about 20 minutes.
        I do about 6 to 9 miles a day

        • Jarle says:

          I belive in walking, all those muscles are there for a reason.

          • Xabier says:

            Walking, and whacking the hell out of things with axes, mauls, sledge hammers and swords for me.

            All good clean fun, if no doubt ‘toxic masculine’ fun.

    • Interesting article. Regarding humans, building a platform in a tree to sleep on wouldn’t really work. It seems like it would be too dangerous for humans to sleep in a way that they could not be easily aroused, unless there was a way to ward off predators. Thus, humans, living in caves, using fire to keep predators away, could no doubt sleep soundly. Even without a cave for protection, fires may have kept predators away so that early hunter-gatherers could sleep securely.

  4. MG says:


    Glutamine or glutamate?


    “So glutamate, a secondary fuel for cancer cells, is made from glutamine by glutaminase enzymes. And the researchers above used a glutaminase inhibitor, CB-839. However, no glucose uptake drugs nor glutaminase inhibitors have been approved to date by the FDA, because they are too risky.

    It would appear relatively easy to cut glucose consumption and, to a degree, starve cancer cells, but simultaneously, as the researchers above did, you must try to inhibit the glutamine to glutamate conversion. This causes a ‘metabolic crisis’ in the cancer cell.

    Are there natural compounds that can inhibit glutaminase? Well, yes. For example, there has already been research with 3 foods used against prostate cancer.”

    • nikoB says:

      Green tea of certain types contain Epigallocatechin Gallate EGCG which as an effect on Glutamine but it is not as good as DON (6-Diazo-5-oxo-L-norleucine).

      Water fasting along with nutrient support has remarkable cancer fighting outcomes.

      Add to that press – pulse therapy and you have a winner.

  5. MG says:

    Islam by country:


    What is the most common feature of these countries?
    The lack of water.

  6. Strahler says:

  7. MG says:

    The list of the countries by obesity rate:


    What do they have in common?

    The countries with the highest obesity rate are on the perifery.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      The fattest in Europe – as well as the worst boozers in the world.


      > The British are fatter than the rest of Europe


    • There are amazingly large differences in obesity rates by country.

      There seem to be a number of rice eating countries at the bottom of the list:
      Vietnam, Bangladesh, Timor-leste, India, Cambodia, Japan, South Korea.

      Not having grain ground into small particles seems to reduce obesity.

      • Jarle says:

        Doing physical work and not eating too much might play a part as well …

      • Kowalainen says:

        My BMI is 21.3, Check yours in the link below.

        I eat my rice and stuff my cookie hole full of fructose in the form of various tasty juices Mother Earth produces with the help of fossil fuels, which of course also is kindly provided by Her.

        Yeah, some furious cranking on the pedals for sure helps too. Now, what are you waiting for? There’s the plant based diet and your steed of steel, carbon fibers, various high-tech alloys and finally rubber that meets the road of self inflicted pain and nil suffering.

        Let’s get moving, #Rule 5 all the way. 🤣👍


    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “The countries with the highest obesity rate are on the perifery.”

      as in Vz in recent years, many of these populations soon will be getting much thinner, for some reason.

    • No One says:

      I bet what they have in common is refined carbohydrates AND fats, little protein, with a sprinkle of fructose for sweetness.

      • Interesting. Americans get 60% of their diet from (wheat) flour, sugar, and oil. This is basically the formula of “mice chow” designed to make them fat. We need to cut way back on these and get more exercise, prevent insulin resistance and many diseases that go with insulin resistance.

        Also, a lot of scientific background that I couldn’t possibly repeat.

  8. Mirror on the wall says:

    A figure of 200,000 c 19 related fatalities (excess deaths) in UK is in line with the initial ‘worst’ case prediction that was given at the outset. The biggest failure must be leaving the borders wide open. Surely Boris must go.

    > Government estimates 220,000 will be the true death toll of the pandemic – with nearly half lost to non-Covid causes such as cancelled operations

    By the end of next month the chaos in hospitals and care homes will have led to 46,000 deaths from non-coronavirus causes because of the pandemic, Department of Health research has suggested.


    • Minority Of One says:

      When the article itself refers to excess deaths, it seems to be referring to non-CV19 deaths, i.e. deaths caused indirectly by lockdown etc. Nowhere does it mention 200,000 excess deaths. Where are you getting that figure from?

      Are the total deaths for 2020 available yet?

  9. davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    “But a more crucial concern for investors is whether the speculative frenzy around GameStop could cause a wave of cascading losses that could threaten the financial system.”

    I doubt the entire system will crash due to this frenzy, but it does reveal once again how the hyper complex financial system is wobbling on the edge of a cliff.

    shorts were 130% of all GME stock, but that is down to 113% now. What an improvement!

    right now it’s quite entertaining.

    hedge funds are down $19.5 billion! just on GME alone.

    but they are not giving in, as shown by the above short positions still at that 113% level.

    in the end, the small investors may finish as net losers and the hedge funds net winners, but for now it’s Game on.

  10. Tim Groves says:

    From the tabloids:

    Singer Tom Jones revealed on a TV interview airing Friday that he has received a coronavirus vaccine, joking that he feels “bulletproof” after his second dose.

    “I’ve had the two and I’m now bulletproof!” Jones said on The Graham Norton Show, according to a report by the Daily Mail.

    Kinda makes us oldsters want to rush out and get double jabbed straight away, doesn’t it?

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      it’s not unusual.

    • Yorchichan says:

      I even had an email today from my union (GMB) urging me to get vaccinated against covid-19 so that “we can get back to normal”. The propaganda is relentless. Now I’ll have to look for a new union. Luckily, I have the comments at OFW to keep me sane(?).


      (Just to be clear: I am not thinking about “closing the door”, but I do despair at the madness around me.)

      • Rodster says:

        To quote Nancy Reagan: “Just Say No”

        • Yorchichan says:

          I will be saying no. I’m resigned to the fact I’ll probably never travel outside my country again, because I won’t let myself be vaccinated or even tested as a prerequisite to travel. Whereas this would be no big deal for you Americans, it is imperative for the mental health of us Brits to escape the British weather at least once a year. My children will probably never attend school in person again either, because I won’t consent to them being vaccinated or tested on a weekly basis for a disease less dangerous to them than the flu.

          The big problem comes if I can’t work or claim benefits unless I have been vaccinated. Not many options open to me then. Not there yet, but it may be coming.

          • Tim Groves says:

            I share your concerns about refusing vaccination and testing and having to face administrative consequences. What you have going for you is that, firstly, you’ve already had Covid-19 and you’ve had it officially, so you can argue that you are immune to it; secondly, you can claim to have an autoimmune disease (dandruff can become psoriasis with a bit of imagination, for instance) and argue that any vaccine has a high risk of aggravating the condition; and thirdly, you can stand based on your Nuremberg Code rights and also on the grounds that individuals have a moral imperative to resist coercion.

            We don’t know how things are going to play out yet, but if the Covid-19 vaccines really do turn out to cause high rates of “collateral damage”, there is sure to be a huge pushback against them, similar to happened in the case of smallpox vaccinations in Victorian England.

            As with serving in the trenches during WW1, I think it’s important not to be in the first few waves. Let the more courageous, the more patriotic and those who trust the government, the doctors, and the drug companies go first.

            • Yorchichan says:

              Not officially, because I was never officially tested. In the UK, antibody test kits are only available for free to those working in paid adult social care. They can be bought online for about £70, but I resent having to pay and they are not 100% accurate.

              GMB pointed out in their email that even if I lost my job for refusing to be vaccinated, whilst they would be prepared to represent me at a tribunal, the most I could win would be one year’s earnings. Perhaps they are worried about having to represent thousands of members in the near future and don’t wish to give anything back in return for their monthly subscriptions. Unions seem a lot like insurers when it comes to actually giving back.

          • Rodster says:

            ” Whereas this would be no big deal for you Americans, it is imperative for the mental health of us Brits”

            You’d be surprised at growing negative ground swell regarding the Covid narrative on Americans. More and more are asking questions especially in light of the vaccine side effects coming out.

            I’m currently on early retirement but we have to make a stand against tyranny because eventually people will lose it and that’s when civil unrest, violence might come about. Big Tech is covering for the government but they too will feel the backlash.

            As the saying goes, “the journey of a thousand miles begins with one step”.

            • Yorchichan says:

              It’s always good to hear about pushback. I don’t think vaccine adverse events get reported on in the UK MSM, but I’m not sure because I find reading the propaganda too annoying. I feel it will only take one Western nation to successfully rebel and the whole narrative will crumble. If our leaders felt secure, the MSM in the UK would be reporting on the mass demonstrations against lockdown in Europe, but, according to alternative media, they aren’t. Sadly, it won’t be us cowed Brits who lead the way.

            • Xabier says:

              Some people were trying to organise a ‘Great Reopening’ of hospitality businesses in the UK for today – Saturday – nothing happened here,total apathy.

              The mere 10 or so shoppers in the open market -usually heaving with people on a weekend – were supervised by no less than 4 security guards (‘City Centre Marshals’) in newly-invented pseudo-police uniforms and black masks.

              The market stalls now have to approached through a maze of steel barriers, tape, and warning signs – some useless moron in local government has had a field day inventing that ‘safety’ system.

              Utterly depressing.

            • Yorchichan says:

              I’d forgotten about the “Great Reopening”. No surprise it has turned out to be a non event. It’s too miserable here at this time of year to protest and, as you have written, people have become accustomed to being at home and are getting so much financial help from the government that they are quite content to be locked down. I’m afraid I have to include myself in this.

              When the benefits stop and the warm weather comes we shall see…

            • Xabier says:

              From the internet the Christians in the US seem most inclined to resist – maybe a misleading impression.

              But they are surely right in calling the New Normal ‘the Beast system’, and the struggle a ‘godly fight’.

      • Xabier says:

        All going to plan, isn’t it?

        They are using pressure from utterly ignorant unions, trade bodies, professional associations, etc, in just the way the Nazis used bottom-of-the chain police officers and bureaucrats to enforce the programme.

        There is nothing ‘normal’ about a perpetually medicated society, under constant surveillance and submerged by fear-saturated propaganda.

        Next stop, I suppose, is withdrawing membership and licences to work if one refuses to be vaccinated.

    • This illustrates how the system works:

      The rally in heavily shorted shares targeted by an army of individuals via Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum and other online platforms, appeared to be causing pain for hedge funds. Analysts blamed the broader selloff in part on forced liquidation of profitable long positions by hedge funds and other investors who needed cash to cover losses on losing short positions.

      As long as other investors can see which shares are heavily shorted, this type of activity would seem to be able to happen again and again.

      • JoJo says:

        To my knowledge there is not a trading platform that keeps positions private. They sell the info. The hedge funds and big boys have used this to pick off individual positions using stop losses at odd hours for years particularly on the forex. Now the same info gets used against them and they cry foul.
        After 2008 there was talk of banning short selling. Thats just went poof. If the hedgies werent selling short and destroying companies along the way they wouldnt get hurt with these bets. Joe Smoe makes a bet and loses the farm oh well. The biggest crooks in the room make a bet and lose and its a risk of systematic collapse. Nothing has changed. Its gotten way worse. Too big to fail means risk is not a factor to those under that umbrella. Two sets of rules.

  11. Yoshua says:

    Yes, you have a weird music taste.


  12. Yoshua says:

    I’m a weirdo.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      me too!

    • JoJo says:

      Yes and we at OFW dont tolerate wierdos. 🙂 Yoshua I have appreciated the charts you post many times. Im a chart kind of guy.

      This is solely my opinion. Moderation is best in extreme topics. Well i break my own rule a lot. I have a friend who is a flat earther. He is a good guy. Now personally I think its a load of horse hockey. I dont tell him that. I say well maybe…

      He has made it his lifes purpose to teach everyone THE TRUTH. He spends every waking moment on it. I dont think its the healthiest thing in the world. WE share a lot of other common beliefs.

      If i was to say “its BS” he could not be friends with me. So I pretend. I like him. He has morals. He has a heart.

      Sometimes he presses. Its uncomfortable. But its easy to avoid because i like him. I value him. It makes dodging easy.

      I have my own soap boxes and i often climb on them here. Sometimes I think too much.

      THe bottom line is if somone thinks your ides are a little far out so what? THey chuckle and move on. Maybe they click on the link maybe they dont. One or two far out beliefs thats just par for the course with intelligent people.

      The funny thing is as apparent as the truth of a finite world is it is not a common belief. WE are all wierdos here. WE may contest the extent of our wierdness but thats the truth.

      I have never found a woman who could get her head around collapse in a real way. But there are many that dig simple living. Just dealing with the day to day. I really like that. I let her bring me into her world. I keep my rants and perspectives to here. I have zero tendency to bring up the issues here to her. It just isnt important. The day to day things are important. They really are. Because thats LIFE! We are decent people. we deserve to have friends and lovers. To live. Amongst the non finite world believers i keep it in the shallow water- dont let me get to deep.

      Once upon a time a long time ago in a universe far away i had a career. I was just starting to discover our circumstances. I worked with a consultant engineer very high dollar hired gun brilliant talent. A guy making it and making it good on the cutting edge of technology. I posed a few awkward questions to him. You know the one that start to unravel the ball of thread. He got a troubled look on his face. He got up looked at me and said “mankind reached its apex with tribal civilizations” and walked away. WE never discussed those things again.

      So get wierd here. This is the place of wierdness. Ultimatly its Gails space. She makes the rules. Gail runs bartertown. 🙂

      • “I have never found a woman who could get her head around collapse in a real way.”

        I presume that you have figured out that I am a woman, since my photo is available.

        • Kowalainen says:

          It only takes one to overthrow a garbage hypothesis.


          • Way back in the year minus one, I worked on a book called, “Counterexamples in Topology.” All a person needs is one example to prove that a hypothesis is wrong.

        • JoJo says:

          You Gail are of course a gem a rarity. I appreciate you very much. In the world of personal relationships my experience has been you can talk about a nice garden but if you talk about starvation as a near certainty there just not going to keep you around. The predominant beliefs seem to be renewable s will solve everything or drill baby drill. I cant seem to keep my mouth shut if those topics are brought forward. The only answer for me has been a woman who really doesnt give a damn about either but has a good heart, cares for her children. I can keep my mouth shut and that means amazingly im put up with. I really dont like being outcast so i value belonging very very much. People love their children. If you bring forth the reality of the future they feel pain. People dont like pain so their not going to keep you around if they see you as causing it. Your actions can still be totally appropriate to the truth of the situation you just dont disclose your motives. THey can still feel your spirit and your essence and thats as honest as it gets If you can make a difference and maybe teach a kid or two a little about whats important that has a lot of meaning to me. To make a difference a real difference in a childs life has value that goes beyond philosophy. If that makes me dishonest by keeping my mouth shut i will take that label. Gladly. Im just glad to have found somewhere I fit. The isle of misfit toys gets lonely sometimes.

      • but why shouldn’t your flat earther friend be believed

        He has a right to be believed

        Just as those who say Hilary Clinton eats babies have a right to be believed
        And the Sandy Hook conspiracists have a right to be believed.
        And to persuade others to believe.

        Where does truth end and belief begin?

        Shaking your head at one load of BS and nodding at another is what starts religious wars.
        But that is the common currency among the unthinkers now. Finding something preposterous to believe in.

        My ‘truth’ trumps your lie, every time.

        And I am prepared to kill you to prove it

        Yes, we can be amused at the moonscammers who parade their gullibility in personal disregard of every scientific (non alternative) fact available. Ultimately as harmless as your flat earther friend. (Until he falls off the edge and screams ”I told you so” as he falls into the abyss.)

        Trouble is, some minds that are open to such nonsense are open to every other kind of nonsense, which can easily get converted to homicidal hysteria.

        Hence the capitol invaders on the 6th. They were whipped into a frenzy by a manipulator who recognised their inherent gullibility and emotional weakness. (check your history books).
        in a mob the weak can ignore their weakness and become strong.

        Now members of congress cannot lead normal lives but must seek protection from the man with the gun, (it only needs one) whose ‘truth’ encompasses all (and more) of what Ive outlined above.

        • JoJo says:

          People can have different beliefs and still respect and cherish each other. That is what i described. People valuing other people and the unique expression that they are more than a particular belief. Its called tolerance. That I have to remind you of that is saddening. My only counter is to appreciate you as much as i am able. Somewhere behind whatever motivates to polarize and demand conflict you is a human who smiles lives and loves and has beauty. If i was to reject you it would only demonstrate intolerance and serve something that is not in my heart.

          Its happening. It cant be stopped. People are coming together. Who is fearful of that and why?

  13. Klaus Schwab: “As long as not everybody is vaccinated, nobody will be safe.”

    • Tim Groves says:

      Me: “As long a Klaus Schwab is running around loose and rabid, nobody will be safe.”

      Explain to me again how the unvaccinated are a threat to the vaccinated?
      I never get tired of hearing that one.

      • Xabier says:

        Because, Tim, we are no doubt simply palpitating and pullulating with DEADLY MUTATIONS……..

  14. JoJo says:

    Transit time to china double from 28 days to 60 with no end in site. Boats parked off long beach. parking full.

    • High COVID cases in Los Angeles are keeping ships from being unloaded. This, plus high shipping volume from China is causing a big backup of ships. A major storm, affecting 55 ships waiting, has complicated matters.

  15. Yoshua says:

    Very Far Frank

    Mr Pool talked about the Corona virus two months before the world realized that a pandemic had started. He talked about lockdowns before China did one.

    He is talking about a coming collapse of the markets. Well…he is saying that he will bring down the markets.

    I can stop posting weird stuff if it seems too crazy.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      maybe you should ask yourself why (in your own words) you are “posting weird stuff”.

    • Tim Groves says:

      When the going gets weird, the weird gets interesting.
      Post on, I say.

    • Very Far Frank says:

      Thanks Yoshua. All I can see on Mr Pool’s twitter are a bunch of cryptic clips, so I’m not sure how you’re going about interpreting it.

      It’s colourful anyway, so I’ll be interested in hearing what else he brings out.

      With the world as mad as it is, only the mad will see things clearly.

  16. Yoshua says:

    Thermodynamic law: Energy (mass) cannot be created or destroyed, it can only change form.

    Change = Time

    Time is the evolution of the universe from the Big Bang until today. All the energy (mass) in the universe after the Big Bang is still present right now. The energy (mass) cannot be in a “another time”.

    A Muslim emir over Egypt said: everybody fears time. Time fears the Pyramids.

    • Herbie Ficklestein says:

      Correct me but energy can not be destroyed but is transformed from an usable state to unusable.
      Energy is the ability to bring about change or to do work. … The Second Law of Thermodynamics states that “in all energy exchanges, if no energy enters or leaves the system, the potential energy of the state will always be less than that of the initial state.” This is also commonly referred to as entropy

      PS Classic Book by Jeremy Rifkin…turned my worldview around

  17. Yoshua says:

    Dr Horace R Drew is the ET message decoder. He is a very strange man. He is a life time ET experiencer. He introduced me to Mr Pool.
    He was on the phone with a friend who sailed past Despair Island and said: nothing makes sense anymore. A few hours later Mr Pool posted the long and lat of Despair Island with a message: soon everything will make sense.

    Horace thinks that Mr Pool is a time traveler. I’m trying to explain to him that time travel is impossible. No luck so far.

    • Bei Dawei says:

      Time travel is *not* impossible! Why, I’m traveling through time right now.

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        I do not doubt you.

        I know for a fact that it is now Friday, but I’m sure you will claim that the day you are living in is Saturday.

        admit it.

        • Slow Paul says:

          Saturday calling here…
          It’s still dark…
          Since the sun has yet to rise…
          Beware of fake decipherers…
          BAU tonight (tomorrow)…

  18. Yoshua says:

    Mr Pool posted a black swan on Wednesday….and all hell breaks loose.


    • Very Far Frank says:

      What exactly is supposed to be the significance of those posts? Is Mr. Pool in the know or something?

    • I suppose it means that something dramatic will happen to the US dollar and S&P 500 prices. Indirectly, this will affect oil prices as well.

      Given where the S&P 500 is today, the direction can only be down.

    • Bei Dawei says:

      I looked around “Mr Pool” ‘s twitter account. If he is supposed to be a prophet of some sort, then I suppose it is relevant that his most recent tweets are images of mushroom clouds.

  19. Very Far Frank says:

    A few accounts of hyperinflation in Weimar Germany. A glimpse into our own future? Nah, the parallels should already be obvious to us all:

    “Of course all the little people who had small savings were wiped out. But the big factories and banking houses and multimillionaires didn’t seem to be affected at all. They went right on piling up their millions. Those big holdings were protected somehow from loss. But the mass of the people were completely broke. And we asked ourselves, “How can that happen? How is it that the government can’t control an inflation which wipes out the life savings of the mass of people but the big capitalists can come through the whole thing unscathed?” We who lived through it never got an answer that meant anything. But after that, even those people who used to save didn’t trust money anymore, or the government. We decided to have a high-ho time whenever we had any spare money, which wasn’t often.”

    “We traveled from Isenburg to Frankfurt, where Emmy debarked, then continued by a roundabout way. It was cold; heat did not reach our car. We changed trains in Eberstadt. To understand the conditions in Germany, one only has to look and listen in a fourth-class car; tired, worn, angry faces. And what rags, what talk! How one has to slave to earn nothing at all. All those millions buy nothing. Bread is 600 billions (today, 850 billions). A pale sickly woman sitting next to me seemed not have learned the price yet. She bobbed up, repeating desperately, “600 billions!” The others griped about the young folks who earn money but won’t help, they only smoke cigarettes and wear sheer stockings. And about the peasants who hide potatoes, feed them to the livestock and sell them for dollars only.”

    – Bertha Pappenheim, 1923

    • “Not enough to go around” seems to be equivalent to “the wealthy get it all.”

      • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

        But those that have the “go around” may just be smug about it.
        Remember reading some secretly found the depression beneficial, being able to hire more servants, workers ect at a very low rate of payment relativity speaking.
        Also, one book stating those with paper, pensions, bank accounts were wiped out, while those that actually owned productive assets escaped, like essential factories. Of course, folks holding real money, such as, precious metals came out better. Of course, they still needed to liquidate these to survive if they did not have income was adjusted for the depreciating money.
        Seems that History is repeating itself…

    • JoJo says:

      best get some dirt on your hands and knees and grow some potatoes. Kowabunga made a comment some time ago about the importance of potato storage temperature. Thanks!

    • England will be like that in 2023. Karma is a bitch, isn’t it?

  20. VFatalis says:

    Totally in line with the destruction of the FF industry. Operation Warp Speed to Ruin engaged.

  21. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    Jennifer Hiller

    HOUSTON (Reuters) – A sustained rise in global oil prices has U.S. shale producers pondering something few expected to be considering after last year’s tumble: how to allocate rising cash flows among new production, dividends and stock buybacks.

    U.S. shale producers will generate about $73.6 billion in cash from operations this year, up nearly a third over last year, according to data firm Rystad Energy, based on oil selling for $50 a barrel.

    Shale patch results that begin rolling out Tuesday with ConocoPhillips are expected to remain in the red, but lower spending and oil and gas price gains will deliver what is expected to be the start of stronger cash flows. Producers that pledged to hold down production may be tempted to pump more.

    “It is going to be a banner year for free cash flow to shareholders,” predicted Dane Gregoris, a director at energy consultancy Enverus.

    Larger firms should generate cash margins of 10% to 20% of revenue this year, he estimates, equivalent to technology or industrial firms.

    Investors have raised their views of deeply indebted firms including Continental Resources Inc and Occidental Petroleum Corp, expecting operating gains to accelerate debt reduction. Chesapeake Energy Corp bankruptcy restructuring allow it to emerge with a $5.13 billion value, twice increased while under court protection.


    Investors will be listening for clues as to how much of the income will be assigned to shareholder payouts, and how much put back into drilling new wells and expanded infrastructure

    • This is called, “Counting your chickens before they are hatched.” We will see how long current prices last.

      If they do last, they may help prevent world production from falling as fast as it would at lower prices.

  22. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    Published on Jan 29, 2021

    Biden Attacks Farms – Comprehensive War on Global Food Supply – Engineered Famine
    The Biden admin’s executive actions in the last 48 hours are attacking farms and implementing the technocratic takeover of food, accelerating a global collapse in food production by paying farmers NOT to grow food, cutting their financial support, tasking Tom Vilsack’s USDA with a Net-Zero goal, changing COVID guidance on grocery stores, restaurants, and meatpacking plants. Meanwhile, the media is finally acknowledging the soybean shortage, and the US is now also experiencing a fertilizer shortage, which will further increase costs and cause yields will collapse. As other countries stop exporting to protect domestic supplies, the US has been wholly sold out. This confluence of issues and cascading failures merits our attention urgently — start growing food today.

    • Tim Groves says:

      This confluence of issues and cascading failures merits our attention urgently — start growing food today.

      Well, it’s a bit too late in the season to plant onions and a bit too early for potatoes.

    • What you are reporting on is a podcast by Christian Westbrook at https://www.iceagefarmer.com

      This is what I understood Westbrook to be saying:

      1. Biden wants to pay farmers not to farm, reducing the nations farmland by 30% in the next 10 years (3% per year?) to allow greater biodiversity.

      2. The Coronavirus Food Assistance Program provides direct relief to producers who faced price declines and additional marketing costs due to COVID-19. Biden is today suspending CFAP.

      3. US Department of Agriculture is to become part of the plan to implement a net zero carbon emissions policy. This is a death nell for animal products. He is asking the USDA what it can do to implement this policy. There may be a new food pyramid.

      4. Tom Vlsack will be back. He formerly worked for Monsanto. Technocrats will be in charge. Westerbrook believes that he is likely to use methods of questionable legality to control the actions of farmers.

      5. Expansion of SNAP (Food stamp) program. This should help more poor people be able to afford food. This helps raise demand for food.

      6. Worker safety in restaurants, grocery stores and meat packing plants is being targeted. OSHA will make recommendations within two weeks regarding things such as more COVID testing and more social distancing in these places. If new regulations are put in place, this may put small grocery stores and restaurants out of business.

      7. There are shortages of the four major types of fertilizers this year, leading to escalating food prices. China stopped exporting phosphates last year, leaving them short. Urea is also in short supply.

      8. Other countries are locking down their exports of soy beans, corn, and wheat, on fear of shortages. Demand around the world (especially China) is soaring for exported soy beans. Corn is being exported in huge amounts now to China. China is also buying ethanol, made from corn.

      9. Brazil is likely facing drought, leading to low yields. To prevent global warming, soy beans are being (??) banned from deforested regions of Brazil, which is 60% of the area they are now being grown. This further adds to inadequate soybean supply.

      10. US food prices are likely to go through the roof.

      11. Empty containers are in short supply, leading to higher prices for shipping imported food.

      12. Also, sea ice is very bad in China, because of the low temperatures this year, which he attributes to the Grand Solar Minimum. This is causing a problem with the logistics of getting food and shipping containers to China.

      13. China is trying to boost its crops of all kinds. Fresh vegetables are especially high priced. China is trying to protect its own food supplies. It also seems to be trying to cause shortages elsewhere, perhaps related to inadequate total supply.

      14. UK is facing restrictions on importing seeds and on breeding stocks related to Brexit. It will have many food problems in the future.

      15. This is part of the WEO’s Great Reset. We all need to start raising food.

      I think that we are past peak oil and peak coal. We are at a point where we are pretty much past peak fertilizer (because of low prices) as well. This is likely to reduce the world’s production of crops regardless of future weather, and regardless of Biden’s policies.

      It probably makes sense to pay small farmers to leave farming because they cannot be as efficient as big farmers. This is especially the case if there isn’t enough fertilizer to go around. Of course, when the big farmers fail, the whole system is likely to go down.

      It probably also makes sense to reduce the amount of meat grown in the US, if energy and fertilizer is in short supply. Growing meat is far more energy and water intensive than plant crops. Most Americans eat way too much food in total, including meat.

      It sounds like China right now is having difficulty growing enough food for its people. We earlier heard videos from China asking people to take smaller servings and not waste food. We cannot expect this to improve. This is part of what is driving the world’s high demand for imported food.

      I am sure the US’s low prices for food in the past year entered into these decisions. Farmers need higher prices than the recent past, if they are to stay in business. Biden is hoping that the higher prices resulting from these policies will help farmers stay in business, without needing subsidies.

  23. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    Boy, Have we gone 😦… Crazy…

    Jan. 29, 2021, 4:32 AM EST
    By Benjamin Lorr, author of “The Secret Life of Groceries & LIFESTYLE NBC

    The American grocery store is all about identity. And it’s fueling a broken system.
    Instead of relying on a circus-like thrill of size and abundance, the grocery store of today competes by offering us cultural meaning.
    As we stroll the aisles, picking and choosing, many of us construct identities from the options.

    It wasn’t always this way. When the first truly modern supermarket opened in 1930, on Jackson Avenue in Queens, New York, thousands lined up to tour it. Customers drove from miles away, and once inside, they reported feeling faint and dizzy from the options. This was a 6,000-square-foot store, mind you, far from the looming halls of a 200,000-square-foot Costco or Walmart today. Nor was this a uniquely American phenomenon. In 1956, in Rome, when the first supermarket opened overseas, curious Italians lost their minds. One woman began running up and down the aisles screaming: “It must be heaven. … There are mountains of food!”

    Even before the pandemic transformed the act of grocery shopping, when those automatic doors whisked open, you probably weren’t quite as chipper. Instead of relying on a circus-like thrill of size and abundance, the grocery store of today competes by offering us cultural meaning. As we stroll the aisles, picking and choosing, many of us construct identities from the options. We buy foods to demonstrate that we are health-conscious or proud of our chocolate-y indulgence, that we care for our families through price savings or care for the Earth through ecological stewardship. Food helps us explore our connection to ancestors or to kin or just announce that we have a really special colon filled with really special colon biota that requires unique handling and care.

    This new cultural competition works well for the grocers themselves. They target ever-tighter demographic segments — whether it is Trader Joe’s catering to the overeducated and underpaid, Whole Foods to the green-minded with green to spare or Aldi to the no-frills and budget-conscious crowd. But if all that talk about identity and values sounds a bit hollow — retail as expression of the self, retail as therapy, in the most literal sense — that’s because it is. When we take a step back and look at the industry as a whole, we see a different, more limited set of “values.” These are the values enacted, not expressed. Enacted at checkout by customers, in the backroom by industry buyers, on our highways by distributors and overseas by manufacturers. And so, instead of a wide range of wholesome values, the grocery industry ends up centered on just a few small primal things: convenience, high quality and low prices.

    It always about the 🤑

  24. It is time for the English to suffer all these harms it caused to Europe.

    • yup

      That Napoleon guy was cursed with a Napoleon complex

      invading everywhere—he was so misunderstood

    • Tim Groves says:

    • Tim Groves says:

    • Erdles says:

      Mainland Europe, the birth place of the three biggest genocidal belief systems in all history: Communism, Fascism and Nazism and it’s the English who get the blame. You could not make up the delusion of some.

    • Malcopian says:

      We British only got our Empire by going round the world being jolly nice and decent to people. I thought everybody knew that by now.

      • Very Far Frank says:

        😀 That’s how I remember it

        • while you’re checking out the niceties of the British empire

          don’t forget the colonial charms of the French, the germans, the Spanish, the Portuguese, the Dutch the Italians and the Belgians.

          pay particular attention the the charm offensive that the Belgians carried out in the Congo. how they persuaded the natives on the benefits of becoming the subjects of king Leopold.

          google it.

          if you have a strong stomach and no moral conscience whatsoever.

          Then bear in mind that the Brits were far from perfect–but by and large they left a common language and justice system, and for some reason those old colonies, without coercion, elected to belong to the British commonwealth of nations

          • Bei Dawei says:

            (An Indian:) “But other than eradicating malaria, banning widow-burning, and building a network of railroads, what have the British done for us?”

            • Tim Groves says:

              (John Cleese:) Well, they did eliminate the Thuggees—Much to Kali’s chagrin.

              And they introduced cricket.

      • Kowalainen says:

        Before ripping too hard on the British, remind me again, who invented the steam engine and got busy with FF’s?


    • Xabier says:

      That was just pay-back for William the Conqueror enslaving the whole English nation, more or less.

  25. Pollux says:


    According to Figure 1 and 2, world population will drop from 7,8 billion today to about 5 billion in 2030 (300*10^18 / 60*10^9). This is 3,5 billion lower than most BAU-estimates (around 8,5). Which year between now and 2030 do you expect world population start falling? Already this year? Note that so far, world population has increased by about 6 million in 2021.

    • It is impossible to know precisely what is a head. Perhaps there could be a “second coming” in a religious sense, and things turn out far differently than we expect.

      Assuming energy is the bottleneck we are now reaching, a person would expect more and more diseases to become untreatable problems. Humans will not be able to suppress many types of bacterial and viral infections. In addition, the wage disparity problem will get worse and worse. Poor people will eat increasingly inadequate diets, making them especially vulnerable to communicable diseases. So disease can be expected to be a major cause of declining population. This could perhaps start as soon as 2021.

      Outright starvation may lead to some deaths, but are likely to be less common. More likely, weakened people will succumb to diseases of various types. We keep hearing from aid organizations that many people are at this point very “food insecure.”

      Warfare may be another cause of death, as many people try to immigrate to areas where conditions look to be somewhat better, and the local population does not want the newcomers. This, too, could ramp up this year. We don’t know how much, how soon, however.

  26. Jason says:

    Universe has a sense of humor. Using gamestop stock to stop wallstreet’s game, and exposing robin hood as an entity that takes from the poor and gives to the rich.

    • Azure Kingfisher says:

      Precisely why I’m beginning to suspect this is a scripted event. Are we witnessing an organic online movement? Or are we witnessing more creative destruction (lockdowns, anyone?) that is part of a plan? Will this activity assist in The Great Reset? How about Agenda 2030? Another step toward the elimination of private ownership? Perhaps we’ll know the answer in time.

      “I know that we all want to believe that the story of GameStop is really about regular people sticking it to institutions that have done the same thing to others for years. That a revolution has taken place.

      “I could give you my suspicions that most of the volume and capital that have driven the short squeezes have come not from Reddit or other retail investors but from institutions (read: other hedge funds) who quickly devised strategies to predict where the energy produced by these groups would be directed next. But they would be only suspicions. Pretty strong ones, mind, but still suspicions all the same.”

      “The real story is the one that lies underneath: it is the story of the source of cascading events in markets, of short squeezes and events in which those squeezes lead to large de-grossing events in which funds rapidly reduce their exposure and cause the kind of broader market events that do have real-world effects. It is the story of the heel of Achilles, the shoulder of Siegfried, the kryptonite of Superman.

      “It is the story of leverage.

      “It is the story of the gross exposure which we have collectively decided is the birthright of these institutions.

      “Soon, the fact that hedge funds have long been and are now even more actively scraping, watching, predicting and pouncing on public, pseudo-private and private social networks will become common knowledge. Their realization that they can free-ride on asymmetric, illiquidity-driven trades that don’t create the same regulatory risk as their own public agitation and collusion might will become common knowledge.

      “That an entire industry is vulnerable to and will itself join in cannibalistically with this kind of coordinated attack will soon become common knowledge.

      “I suspect that the gatekeepers and regulators will have to face the choice: do they want free and fair markets for the pricing of capital in which everyone plays by the same rules, or do they want to protect the birthright of the hedge fund industry to run high levels of gross exposure and substantial explicit and implicit leverage that will continue to necessitate these impartial emergency restrictions and rescue packages?

      “We know what they’ve chosen before.

      “Maybe this isn’t the revolution some were hoping it would be. But it might be a policy inflection point. There might be an opportunity to build a movement around fairness, truly free markets and the rule of law.”


  27. Mirror on the wall says:

    UK exports to EU have collapsed after Brexit. Lorry traffic is down 30% and 65% of the lorries return to EU empty of UK goods.

    > Majority of lorries crossing channel to France are empty as Brexit hits trade

    The majority of lorries travelling from the UK to the EU via Calais and Dunkirk have nothing in them, suggesting that trade has been significantly disrupted since Brexit.

    According to figures for the week ending 24th January, an average of 3,400 lorries a day travelled from the Port of Dover and Eurotunnel to Northern France.

    Two in three – 65% – were empty. At the beginning of January the rate was 75%.

    The data, provided by the Prefecture Hauts-de-France et du Nord, shows that HGV (heavy goods vehicle) traffic in both directions across the English Channel was down 30% on normal flows.


    • Mirror on the wall says:

      All of the main UK business groups are up in arms over the Brexit disaster. Many are simply shifting their operations to the EU and cutting out UK entirely.

      > Brexit: British business leaders warn of ‘substantial difficulties’ at UK ports

      The leaders of Britain’s five largest business groups have warned the government that firms face “substantial difficulties” at UK ports since Brexit, with the prospect of a “significant loss of business” if the situation is allowed to continue.

      Following a round table meeting on Thursday evening with Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove, a letter was issued by the CBI, the British Chambers of Commerce, the manufacturers’ group Make UK, the Federation of Small Businesses and the Institute of Directors.

      They warned that grace periods agreed with the EU would expire over the next two months at a time when cross-border traffic, which is usually low in January, was due to grow. Unless measures were put in place to smooth customs procedures, the situation would deteriorate, they said.

      Last week it emerged that many small UK businesses are being told by advisers working for the Department for International Trade (DIT) to register subsidiaries within the EU single market, from where they can distribute their goods far more freely.

      Officials were found to be advising firms that it was the best way to circumvent border issues and VAT problems that have been building up since 1 January.

      A separate report has found that the majority of lorries travelling from the UK to the EU via Calais and Dunkirk are empty, suggesting that the situation at the border has worsened since the UK agreed a trade deal with the EU.


    • Mirror on the wall says:

      UK produce is rotting, either unable to get to EU, confiscated when it gets there or rotten on delivery. The situation is only expected to get worse.

      > Brexit border delays could see 142,000 tonnes of food wasted in six months, government estimates

      Exporters have seen produce spoil or be impounded because of Brexit bureaucracy

      Up to 142,000 tonnes of food could be wasted over the next six months because of Brexit border disruption, ministers have admitted.

      An estimate drawn up by the government as an “illustration of what we could reasonably expect” suggests food, drink and feed equivalent to 96 million whole chickens may end up being thrown away.

      It comes as fishermen protested outside Downing Street earlier this month complaining that new paperwork was causing lengthy delays at borders and seeing entire consignments wasted.

      Meanwhile UK meat exporters have warned of produce being confiscated and impounded by French authorities at Calais due to incorrect paperwork, describing the new system as “convoluted, archaic and badly implemented”.

      But the analysis itself, published by the Cabinet Office, warns that “disruption could be lower in the initial days of January but we would expect sustained disruption to worsen over the first two weeks as freight demand builds”.

      The situation is leaving lorries stranded at ports for days, which has seen time-sensitive consignments left to spoil or be rejected altogether by their intended recipients.


    • Mirror on the wall says:

      Youngsters are trying to get out of UK.

      > Brexit Is Prompting 1 In 3 Young People To Consider Leaving UK For Work

      One in three young people (16 to 35) are considering leaving the UK to work in another European country due to uncertainty around Brexit as well as the Covid-19 pandemic, according to latest research*, among some 1,000 UK workers.

      Alex Fleming, Region President of Northern Europe Adecco Workforce Solutions, commented on the findings, “After a difficult year across the board these research findings reveal the true scale of the talent challenge UK companies face. Even with a Brexit deal and the vaccine rollout underway, the high levels of uncertainty are leading young people in particular to look outside the UK and London for work. If businesses do not act now to turn this around, they will lose valuable talent and ultimately risk their chances of successfully bouncing back in the long-run.”


    • Mirror on the wall says:

      The Independent asks the pertinent question.

      > If the UK becomes a failed state after Brexit, what will happen to England?

      Britain is looking – and behaving – less like a united kingdom than ever before. And for the Tories, the demise of the union is the price they will happily pay for Brexit

      As the reality of Brexit starts to hit home, with the disruption of trade between mainland Britain and Northern Ireland, trawlermen left with unsaleable fish, and that extra pound or so we’ll have to pay for a bottle of French or Spanish wine, so profound political and constitutional effects are also making themselves felt. The UK is looking, and behaving, less and less like a united kingdom.

      It took Gordon Brown, a former prime minister and a fervent supporter of the Union, to tell it like it is. In the aftermath of Brexit and the pandemic, he told the BBC, the United Kingdom was in danger of becoming a “failed state”. There were problems of trust, structures and consultation. The way the UK was governed, he insisted, had to change.

      In fact, the risks had been sensed within hours of the polls closing in the EU referendum in 2016. First came the surprise and shock at the victory for Leave: positive or negative, depending which way you had voted. You will probably remember the agony on David Cameron’s face when he announced his resignation outside Number 10, and the almost appalled expressions on the faces of the Leave leaders, as well as their almost immediate falling out.


      • Mirror on the wall says:

        More voices here in UK are joining Gail.

        Ex-PM Gordon Brown has joined voices saying that UK faces becoming a ‘failed state’. He sees greater devolution as the only way to avoid it. LP like others are suggesting a federal UK but NI and Scotland are clearly on their way out.

        UK is doing much worse than other countries in its collapse of energy consumption per capita and the dissipative system has clearly got its own ‘ideas’ about what comes next.

        > UK at risk of becoming failed state, says Gordon Brown

        Former PM says Westminster government is out of touch and fundamental changes are needed

        The UK is at risk of becoming a failed state and breaking up unless there are deep reforms of the way the country is governed, the former prime minister Gordon Brown has said.

        “I believe the choice is now between a reformed state and a failed state,” Brown wrote in the Daily Telegraph. “It is indeed Scotland where dissatisfaction is so deep that it threatens the end of the United Kingdom.”

        Brown, who was chancellor of the exchequer for 10 years from 1997 and became prime minister in 2007, said many Britons were disillusioned with the way the country was governed by and in the interests of a London-centric elite.

        Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Monday morning, he accused Boris Johnson and his government of being out of touch. He said: “I do think Boris Johnson has not quite understood how deep the resentment is, how the lack of trust is causing him a problem, a problem about his acceptability in different parts of the country.”

        On Sunday, polls carried out in the four nations of the UK showed that a majority of voters thought Scotland was likely to be independent within the next 10 years. In Scotland, the poll found that 49% of people backed independence compared with 44% opposed – a margin of 52% to 48% if undecideds are excluded. Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, promised a new referendum on independence if the Scottish National party won another majority in elections to the Scottish parliament in May.


        • Xabier says:

          Dear Ohwhatabore

          Man, you are on a roll today! Respect!

          Here are some more trigger words for you:


          British State



          Nitski (never could be bothered with the exact spelling, just like his verbose and irrelevant works).

          Have fun.

          Yr greatest admirer -and even my dog now loves your posts.


        • Harry McGibbs says:

          Gordon Brown is confused. The UK may break up into its constituent nations but that is not the same thing as becoming a “failed state” – unless he is arguing that in the process Westminster is so weakened that it struggles to collect taxes, provide even basic services and so forth, putting us on a par with Yemen or South Sudan.

          • Malcopian says:

            ~Gordon Brown is confused. The UK may break up into its constituent nations but that is not the same thing as becoming a “failed state”~

            How can you say that? He’s the man who put an end to ‘boom and bust’ in the UK, don’t you remember?

            • Harry McGibbs says:

              I did enjoy the idea of him pitching screaming fits and lobbing newspapers at Tony Blair back in the day but, yes, rather dour and dreary for a megalomaniac.

              I always thought it interesting that he sold off our gold literally as we hit peak oil production in the UK.


    • Mirror on the wall says:

      Amazon is shifting its operations directly to Ireland to cut out the UK.

      Like other companies, there is zero point in Amazon importing stuff into the UK to then export it to the EU when it can simply import the stuff straight into the EU, knock it up there, and avoid all of the Brexit administrative barriers and tariffs.

      Brexit was totally not thought through and companies are flooding out of the UK.

      > Brexit: Amazon ‘to launch first Ireland fulfilment centre’ to mitigate UK border chaos

      Baldonnell site would be retail giant’s first packing centre in Ireland

      Amazon is reportedly looking to open its first packing warehouse in Ireland, allowing it to avoid delays brought by new Brexit trade arrangements.

      The retail giant wants to use a 650,000-sq-ft unit at a business park in Baldonnell, west of Dublin, according to the Bloomberg news agency.

      Gilles Fernandez, the commercial director of An Post Commerce, which delivers Amazon parcels in Ireland, hailed the move as “good news” for Irish customers.

      Although Amazon opened a delivery warehouse at Rathcoole in Ireland last year, the Baldonnell site would be the first in the country where products are packaged by Amazon employees.

      “By avoiding the Brexit pipeline, Amazon can get their parcels to us in An Post faster for immediate delivery to the customer,” he said.

      Like other retailers, Amazon has been affected by post-Brexit custom rules, which came into effect from 1 January, causing trade disruption between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

      Earlier this month, bosses at supermarkets including Tesco and Sainsbury’s called on the government to prevent significant disruption to Northern Ireland food supplies.


    • Harry McGibbs says:

      Turns out that re-introducing trade friction with your largest trading partner is a painful and chaotic business. This is exactly what an independent Scotland would be doing – its largest trading partner by far is the rest of the UK.

    • Empty returning lorries (heavy trucks) sounds like a disaster.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      It looks like the USA state is printing dollars – the value of the dollar is thus diminished and a higher percentage of the dollars is going to shareholders, which amounts to a transference of wealth to the richest.

      As I understand it, all gains in Wall St. since 2008 have been because of state ‘buy ins’.

      It is a ‘socialisation’ of business through state support but the outcome is greater wealth inequality.

    • In other words, the S&P 500 rises as the US dollar falls.

      My thought is similar to that of Mirror on the wall.

      The huge amount of printed money primarily goes to those who are already most wealthy. They invest in shares of stock, pushing the price of stock way up.

      I am not sure that the “socialization of business” of business is really involved. I would think of it more a subsidization of the already wealthy.

  28. Yoshua says:

    What tools does the ECB have to bring down the euro? Will they start printing euros to buy dollars? The ECB would be to blame when the markets crash. I’m sure the CB coordinate this events.

    Lagarde- Hello darling, it’s time for a shake out!
    Powell- Olala!

  29. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The battle ahead: war is coming for your money: Investors underestimate the pandemic-induced risk of conflict and imposition of capital controls…

    “The pandemic encouraged governments to believe the wartime-model production of testing kits and vaccines created a great precedent for state-directed investment and state-restricted trade.
    But state-directed economies become war economies, and war economies tend to move on to use their products. Before the wars, typically, capital controls are imposed, and most global investors are not taking that probability into account…

    “The market volatility caused by sudden conflict in an over leveraged world would lead to the mother of all un-meet-able margin calls by the financial clearing houses (CCPs) that were supposed to solve the problems of the last global financial crisis. The US, UK and other governments would bail out the CCPs — once — and then, I believe, impose international capital controls.

    “So it makes geopolitical sense, if not necessarily financial-model sense, for large asset managers to more closely match assets and liabilities by country or currency area. Free international capital flows, and associated financial hedges, have become politically fragile.

    “War comes faster than you expect and costs more freedom than you thought possible.”


  30. Yoshua says:

    The S&P 500 has formed a rising wedge that is coming to an end.

    The dollar on the other hand has formed a falling wedge during the same time…and is coming to an end as well.

    The dollar will rip higher and crash everything?


  31. Tim Groves says:

    Fun Facts: Masks: The Science & The Myths (Dr. Lee Merritt)

    Myth 1. At least it’s keeping most of the particles in when I sneeze or cough.

    In fact, when you cough or sneeze, if the particles can’t get through the mask, most of them will go out via the sides, or failing that, over the top.

    Myth 2. Less virus, less illness.

    We used to believe that a lot of viruses need to be present in order to cause illness, but now medical opinion has it that breathing in just one influenza virion (viral particle) can be enough to cause influenza and six adenovirus can lead to fever, cough, sore throat, diarrhea, or pink eye.

    Myth 3. We have papers showing that masks work.

    Actually, while there are lots of scientific papers that detail how masks screen particles, that’s not relevant because they don’t screen enough particles to make a difference, and they don’t screen “the right particles”. There are no studies that show that wearing masks have a real epidemical impact—that they change the course of epidemics.

    Referring to an article that purports to have shown that masks are effective in reducing the chance of infection, Dr. Merritt says, “This is beyond just being sloppy science. This is actually fraudulent.”

    There’s a lot of good info in this 25-minute presentation, and you will definitely come away from it knowing a lot more about how useless masks are than you do now.

    • Xabier says:

      We can be very grateful indeed to the small – but maybe growing – band who are engaged in good, sound, medical science and trying to get this info out to us. And thanks to you for the links, of course!

      It’s very heartening, even while we are imprisoned by the mendacious and sinister policies of our respective governments, and their compromised scientific advisers.

      Dr Sam Bailey is still posting bold videos on this topic, too.

    • Jarle says:

      A great overview if you ever saw one, cheers Tim!

    • Tom says:

      Well if one mask doesn’t do the trick how about wearing four.

      Doctor Tells NBC: Americans Should Consider Wearing Four Face-Masks

      Looking on the bright side maybe the Chinese will release their bioweapon and bring on the predicted mass casualty event that will put us out of our misery.


    • Artleads says:

      It’s my Machiavellian streak, but if wearing masks doesn’t clearly cause increased vulnerability to infection, I’d tend to downplay this good scientific information, and go with what most people can handle: most people can’t handle the truth. If masks placate most people, I’d rather they go with the mask for a very long time rather than think that since “they don’t help” they should try vaccines instead. I see the existential problem as vaccines, not masks.

      • Tim Groves says:

        Good point. Masks are supplying a lot of people with comfort in difficult times. They may work about as well at keeping Covid-19 at bay as crucifixes work against vampires, but most people are reassured by their presence and the story that accompanies them.

    • Minority Of One says:

      Best review I have seen. The only one I have seen that tackles why the masks-are-good reviews are wrong.

  32. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The majority of central banks around the world are examining whether to launch nationally-backed digital currencies, a senior Asian policymaker has said.

    “Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Singapore’s senior minister, said most central banks were looking into the space in response to the rise of e-commerce and alternative payment companies.”


  33. Harry McGibbs says:

    “In the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, global tourism had its worst year ever in 2020, with international arrivals down 74% compared to 2019.

    “According to the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), the drop meant $1.3 trillion less in revenues, which is 11 times more than the drop caused by the 2009 economic crisis.

    “The U.N. said the drop in global tourism has put between 100 and 120 million tourism jobs at risk. The outlook for a rebound is cloudy.”


    • Tourism has been huge everywhere. The fact that it hasn’t been available has kept the bank accounts of many well-to-do westerners high, because normally planned vacations couldn’t take place.

  34. Harry McGibbs says:

    “China has warned that attempts by Taiwan to seek independence “means war”.

    “The warning comes days after China stepped up its military activities and flew warplanes near the island. It also comes as new US president Joe Biden reaffirmed his commitment to Taiwan, and set out his stance in Asia.”


  35. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The European Central Bank’s views on the euro this week amount to a declaration of “currency war,” according to research from one of Germany’s biggest banks…

    “The euro has slid in recent days after policy maker Klaas Knot said the central bank has the tools to prevent any further strengthening of the currency undermining inflation…”


  36. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Bubble warnings everywhere just keep getting louder: It seems like asset bubble warnings are emerging everywhere you look these days. In the U.S., big names including Tesla Inc. have soared to dizzy new heights, while Bank of America Corp. strategists have warned that a bubble is forming in asset prices and a market correction is looming.

    “Meanwhile, a growing legion of retail investors are challenging Wall Street orthodoxy and sending shares of previously unheralded stocks into the stratosphere (yes, of course we mean you GameStop Corp.)…

    “A market collapse and depression now, as much of the world already grapples with the effects of the pandemic, could have dire consequences for years to come.”


    • Harry McGibbs says:

      ^^^A double-post – my apologies. Sourcing these articles is easily achieved but uploading them via WordPress, which involves an often variable and apparently arbitrary time-lag between an article being posted and it actually appearing in the comments section, less so.

  37. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Bubble warnings everywhere just keep getting louder: It seems like asset bubble warnings are emerging everywhere you look these days. In the U.S., big names including Tesla Inc. have soared to dizzy new heights, while Bank of America Corp. strategists have warned that a bubble is forming in asset prices and a market correction is looming.

    “Meanwhile, a growing legion of retail investors are challenging Wall Street orthodoxy and sending shares of previously unheralded stocks into the stratosphere (yes, of course we mean you GameStop Corp.).

    “Trendy bets are all over the place, with cash pouring into assets from solar power and cloud computing… And who could overlook the rollercoaster ride that is Bitcoin, everyone’s favorite bubble from 2017, back at it again and hitting new highs early in 2021 after quadrupling in value last year.

    “So what’s behind all the speculation? In a nutshell, the global pandemic. Policy makers have rolled out trillions of dollars in stimulus to cushion the economic blow, money that could well end up pumping asset bubbles…

    “A market collapse and depression now, as much of the world already grapples with the effects of the pandemic, could have dire consequences for years to come.”


  38. Jarle says:

    “Is the NHS overwhelmed by incoming COVID-19 patients?”


    • Yorchichan says:

      They could always send the excess patients to the care homes. There are lots of empty beds in UK care homes at the moment.

      • Minority Of One says:

        You inject an mRNA vaccine into your care home residents, about a third die and the only people who are suspicious are the staff that work there? Then to boot the govt has an excuse to introduce and enforce more lockdowns nationally, and almost no-one is suspicious of their motives / actions? Sheople.

        It is going to be an interesting year. I can’t help but wonder if the days of ‘going on holiday’, at least here in the UK, are over already.

    • “In conclusion, the NHS is overwhelmed but not because the public are being hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2 at an extraordinary rate. The NHS is overwhelmed because (1) it is already an overwhelmed system and (2) the hospitals are working at a reduced capacity.”

  39. Thierry Chassine says:

    Just reading Putin’s speech at the WEF.
    There are some nuggets:

    About war:
    “As you are aware, the inability and unwillingness to find substantive solutions to problems like this in the 20th century led to the WWII catastrophe.
    Of course, such a heated global conflict is impossible in principle, I hope. This is what I am pinning my hopes on, because this would be the end of humanity. However, as I have said, the situation could take an unexpected and uncontrollable turn – unless we do something to prevent this”

    “There is a chance that we will face a formidable break-down in global development, which will be fraught with a war of all against all and attempts to deal with contradictions through the appointment of internal and external enemies”

    About inequalities in western countries:
    “These imbalances in global socioeconomic development are a direct result of the policy pursued in the 1980s, which was often vulgar or dogmatic. This policy rested on the so-called Washington Consensus with its unwritten rules, when the priority was given to the economic growth based on a private debt in conditions of deregulation and low taxes on the wealthy and the corporations.”

    About QE:
    The so-called quantitative easing is only increasing the bubble of the value of financial assets and deepening the social divide. The widening gap between the real and virtual economies (incidentally, representatives of the real economy sector from many countries have told me about this on numerous occasions, and I believe that the business representatives attending this meeting will agree with me) presents a very real threat and is fraught with serious and unpredictable shocks

    About Big Tech and democracy (and Trump implicitly):
    “Where is the border between successful global business, in-demand services and big data consolidation and the attempts to manage society at one’s own discretion and in a tough manner, replace legal democratic institutions and essentially usurp or restrict the natural right of people to decide for themselves how to live, what to choose and what position to express freely? We have just seen all of these phenomena in the US and everyone understands what I am talking about now”

    My favorite one, about global agenda:
    “Obviously, the era linked with attempts to build a centralised and unipolar world order has ended. To be honest, this era did not even begin. A mere attempt was made in this direction, but this, too, is now history”

    About Europe:
    “Major European political figures have talked in the recent past about the need to expand relations between Europe and Russia, saying that Russia is part of Europe. Geographically and, most importantly, culturally, we are one civilisation”
    “if we want European culture to survive and remain a centre of world civilisation in the future, keeping in mind the challenges and trends underlying the world civilisation, then of course, Western Europe and Russia must be together”

    Not much about Energy, alas!

    • ssincoski says:

      Good stuff. I especially agree with the last point regarding the need for Russia and Europe to work together. It just makes sense. I was so annoyed when the US ‘forced’ the EU to put economic sanctions in place with Russia. Large market cut-off for many countries in Europe that normally sell to Russia. Did not hurt the US of course. So transparent as in: we want you to buy expensive LNG from us instead of relying on Russia.

  40. MG says:

    Remedying the Mitochondria to Cure Human Diseases by Natural Products


    • nikoB says:

      This research on cancer is worth knowing.

      • One of the video’s conclusions is:

        “The simultaneous reduction of glucose and glutamine can help manage most cancers.”

        Wikipedia says:

        The dietary sources of glutamine includes especially the protein-rich foods like beef, chicken, fish, dairy products, eggs, vegetables like beans, beets, cabbage, spinach, carrots, parsley, vegetable juices and also in wheat, papaya, Brussels sprouts, celery, kale and fermented foods like miso.

        • nikoB says:

          Glutamine is impossible to exclude from the diet. But there are some natural molecules that impede its use in the cell. But as all cells need glutamine, it is hard to bring right down without causing problems. Whereas glucose is easy to bring right down as the body can run on ketones instead. Hence that is why a ketogenic diet and fasting has such positive effects fighting cancer.

    • Some examples would be helpful. Maybe the article will stimulate research.

  41. MG says:

    Thermoregulation, ageing and body fat


    “Brown fat, also called brown adipose tissue, is a special type of body fat that is turned on (activated) when you get cold. Brown fat produces heat to help maintain your body temperature in cold conditions.

    Brown fat contains many more mitochondria than does white fat. These mitochondria are the “engines” in brown fat that burn calories to produce heat.”


    “Older adults typically experience greater levels of thermal strain during physical efforts in the heat compared to young individuals.”
    “Although not significantly different, 40–44 years old males also had a lower rate of heat loss compared to younger males. Over the sum of two hours, the change in body heat content was greater in males 40–70 years compared to young males (all P<0.05). Our findings suggest that middle-aged and older adults have impairments in heat dissipation when doing physical activity in the heat, thus possibly increasing their risk of heat-related illness under such conditions."


    Age-related decrease in cold-activated brown adipose tissue and accumulation of body fat in healthy humans

    "These results suggest that decreased BAT activity may be associated with accumulation of body fat with age."


    Brown adipose tissue = large number of mitochondria

    "Obesity is the consequence of chronic positive energy balance and considered a leading risk factor for cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. Due to its epidemic trends among children and adults, there is an increasing interest in implementing new therapeutic interventions to tackle overweight and obesity. Activation of brown adipose tissue (BAT) represents today a promising strategy to enhance energy expenditure (EE) through heat production. More recently, “browning” of white adipose tissue (WAT) has gained increasing attention in research area as an alternative method in stimulating energy dissipation. This minireview aims to summarize the current knowledge of some dietary compounds that have been shown to promote BAT activation and WAT browning with subsequent beneficial health effects."

    Brown and Beige Adipose Tissue and Aging


    "Different location of BAT and WAT at different ages. Brown adipose tissue (BAT) in infants and young adults had been described to be localized mainly in the cervical-supraclavicular region as well as in periaortic areas inside the thorax and the abdomen, and in particular in the perirenal fat. With aging the amount of detectable BAT decreases progressively and it remains represented mainly in the supraclavicular and perirenal sites. Peripheral depots (interscapular) are the first to loose BAT with increasing age, whereas deeper BAT depots, such as the perivascular or perirenal depots, decline in later stages of life. Aging is also characterized by a redistribution of white adipose tissue (WAT) with a progressive loss of subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) from limbs and an accumulation in trunk and abdomen of visceral adipose tissue (VAT) compared to adults."


    The Immune Landscape of Visceral Adipose Tissue During Obesity and Aging

    "Obesity and aging represent two of the largest global health issues of our time. Obesity currently affects over a third of the world's population. Alarmingly, 57.8% of the global adult population are estimated to be overweight or obese by 2030 (1–3)."

    "The innate and adaptive immune systems are now widely accepted as forces that respond to and participate in the remodeling processes taking place in the VAT during metabolic diseases. While inflammatory changes in fat are likely required for proper adipose tissue remodeling and expansion, it is the chronic nature of the inflammation which ultimately drives metabolic disease during obesity and aging (32)."

    • Long distance busses are like airplanes in many ways. They trap people together for long periods, spreading COVID-19. If people are discouraged from traveling, they lose riders as well. Long distance bus riders are often poorer and don’ have other options.

    • Transit ridership had been falling for years before the pandemic shut down much of the U.S. economy last spring, and it’s likely that the virus will only accelerate some of the trends behind that decline. Those include hastening the migration of jobs and people away from dense cities, where transit works best, as well as a newfound enthusiasm for letting employees work from home.

      The combination of these forces and fear of catching COVID on busses pushes the system down.

    • This is the detail most forget:

      “Pakistan has overcapacity, yet it still has power shortages because of the unreliability of the grid,” said Simon Nicholas, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics & Financial Analysis. “They haven’t invested in the grid the same way they’ve invested in power plants.”

      I expect that China has left Pakistan with a lot of debt as well.

    • “Declining floating storage could further support oil prices in the near-term, as it is considered an indication for demand recovering.”

      With less oil in storage, additional supply needs to come from producers. Maybe this will help keep prices up.

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