Why Collapse Occurs; Why It May Not Be Far Away

Collapse is a frightening subject. The question of why collapse occurs is something I have pieced together over many years of study from a number of different sources, which I will attempt to explain in this post.

Collapse doesn’t happen instantaneously; it happens many years after an economy first begins outgrowing its resource base. In fact, the resource base likely declines at the same time from multiple causes, such as soil erosion, deforestation and oil depletion. Before collapse occurs, there seem to be warning signs, including:

  • Too much wage disparity
  • Riots and protests by people unhappy with low wages
  • Prices of commodities that are too low for producers that need to recover their costs of production and governments that require tax revenue to fund programs for their citizens
  • An overstretched financial system; conditions ripe for debt defaults
  • Susceptibility to epidemics

Many people have the misimpression that our most important problem will be “running out” of oil. Because of this, they believe that oil prices will rise high if the system is reaching its limits. Since oil prices are not very high, they assume that the problem is far away. Once a person understands what the real issue is, it is (unfortunately) relatively easy to see that the current economy seems to be quite close to collapse.

In this post, I provide images from a recent presentation I gave, together with some comments. A video of the presentation is available on the Uncomfortable Knowledge Hub, here. A PDF of the presentation can be downloaded here:

Slide 1
Slide 2
Slide 3
Slide 4

In some ways, a self-organizing system is analogous to a dome that might be built with a child’s toy building set (Slide 4). New layers of businesses and consumers are always being added, as are new regulations, more or less on top of the prior structure. At the same time, old consumers are dying off and products that are no longer needed are being discontinued. This happens without central direction from anyone. Entrepreneurs see the need for new products and try to satisfy them. Consumers decide on what to buy, based upon what their spendable income is and what their needs are.

Slide 5

Resources of many kinds are needed for an economy. Harnessing energy of many types is especially important. Early economies burned biomass and used the labor of animals. In recent years, we have added other types of energy, such as fossil fuels and electricity, to supplement our own human energy. Without supplemental energy of various kinds, we would be very limited in the kinds of goods and services that could be produced. Our farming would be limited to digging in the ground with a stick, for example.

The fact that there is almost an equivalence between employees and consumers is very important. If the wages of consumers are high, relative to the prices of the goods and services available, then consumers are able to buy many of those goods and services. As a result, citizens tend to be happy. But if there are too many low paid workers, or people without work at all, consumers are likely to be unhappy because they cannot afford the basic necessities of life.

Slide 6

The problem civilizations are facing is a two-sided problem: (1) Growing population and (2) Resources that often degrade or deplete. As a result, the amount of resources per person falls. If this were carried to the limit, all of us would starve.

Slide 7

As resources deplete and population grows, local leaders can see that problems are on the horizon. At first, adding technology, such as a new dam to provide water to make farms more productive, helps. As more and more technology and other complexity is added, there is less and less “bang for the buck.” We can easily see this in the healthcare field. Early antibiotics had a very big payback; recent medical innovations that help a group of 500 or 1000 people with a particular rare disease can be expected to have a much smaller payback.

A second issue with added complexity is that it increasingly leads to a society of the very wealthy plus many very low paid workers. Joseph Tainter identified the combination of these two issues as leading to collapse in his book, The Collapse of Complex Societies.

Slide 8

Françios Roddier is an astrophysicist who writes primarily in French. His book Thermodynamique de l’évolution was published in 2012; it is now available in English as well.

The issue of starving people in Yemen is an issue today. In fact, hunger is an increasing problem in poor countries around the world. The world tourism industry is dead; the industry of making fancy clothing for people in rich countries is greatly reduced. People who formerly made a living in these industries in poor countries increasingly find it difficult to earn an adequate living with other available jobs. Rich countries tend to have better safety nets when there are widespread reductions in job-availability.

Slide 9

Businesses often make long lasting goods such as machines to be used in factories or automobiles to be used by consumers. Governments often make long-lasting goods such as paved roads and school buildings. When making these goods, they take some combination of commodities, built machinery, and human labor to make goods and services that people will use for many years into the future. The future value of these goods is hoped to be significantly greater than the value of the inputs used to create these goods and services.

There are at least three reasons that time-shifting devices are needed:

  1. Workers need to be paid as these goods are made.
  2. Businesses need to build factories in advance.
  3. Businesses, governments and individuals are all likely to find the future payments more manageable, even with interest added, than they are as a single payment upfront.

I don’t mention the issue in Slide 9, but once time-shifting devices are created, they become very easy to manipulate. For example, no one knows precisely what the future value of a particular investment will be. Governments, especially, are prone to make investments in unneeded infrastructure, simply to provide jobs for people. We also know that there are diminishing returns to added technology, but stocks of technology companies tend to be valued as if complexity will save the world. Third, interest rate manipulations (lower!) and the offering of debt to those who seem unlikely to be able ever to repay the debt can be used to make the economy of a country appear to be in better shape than it really is. Many of us remember the collapse of the US subprime housing debt bubble in 2008.

Slide 10

The purpose of a financial system is to allocate goods and services. High wages allocate a larger share of the output of an economy to a particular person than low wages. Appreciation in asset values (such as prices of shares of stock, or value of a home or piece of land) also act to increase the share of the goods and services produced by the economy to an individual. Payment of interest, dividends and rents are other ways of allocating goods and services that the economy makes. Governments can print money, but they cannot print goods and services!

As the economy gets more complex, the non-elite workers increasingly get left out of the distribution of goods and services. For one thing (not mentioned on Slide 10), as the economy becomes more complex, an increasing share of the goods and services produced by the economy need to go into making all of the intermediate goods that make that industrial economy work. Intermediate goods would include factories, semi-trucks, hydroelectric dams, oil pipelines and other goods and services that don’t directly benefit an individual consumer. They are needed to make the overall system work.

As the economy gets bigger and more complex, the non-elite workers increasingly find themselves left out. Besides losing an increasing part of the output of the intermediate goods and services mentioned in the prior paragraph, there are other pieces that take slices of the total output of goods and services:

  • High paid workers take their quite-large slices of the total output. These individuals tend to be the ones who get the benefit of asset appreciation, as well.
  • Pension programs and other programs to help the elderly and unemployed take a cut.
  • Health insurance costs, in the US at least, tend to be very high, relative to wages, for lower-paid workers.
  • The work of some employees can be replaced by low-paid overseas employees or by robots. If they are to keep their jobs, their wages need to be suitably low to compete.

With all of these issues, the workers at the bottom of the employment hierarchy increasingly get left out of the distribution of goods and services made by the economy.

Slide 11

We know some of the kinds of things that happen when economies are close to collapse from the writings of researchers such as Peter Turchin, lead author of Secular Cycles, and Joseph Tainter, mentioned earlier. One approach is for governments to try to work around the resource problem by starting wars with other economies whose resources they might gain. Probably a more likely outcome is that these low-resource-per-capita economies become vulnerable to attack by other economies because of their weakened condition. In any event, more conflict is likely as resource limits hit.

If the low incomes of non-elite workers persist, many bad outcomes can be expected. Local riots can be expected as citizens protest their low wages or pensions. Governments are likely to find that they cannot collect enough taxes. Governments will also find that they must cut back on programs, or (in today’s world) their currencies will sink relative to currencies of other countries. Intergovernmental organizations may fail for lack of funding, or governments may be overthrown by unhappy citizens.

Debt defaults can be expected. Governments have a long history of defaulting on their debts when conditions were bad according to Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff in This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.

It becomes very easy for epidemics to take hold because of the poor eating habits and the close living quarters of non-elite workers.

With respect to inflation-adjusted commodity prices, it is logical that they would stay low because a large share of the population would be impoverished and thus not able to afford very many of these commodities. A person would expect gluts of commodities, as occurred during the Great Depression in the 1930s in the United States because many farmers and farm-hands had been displaced by modern farming equipment. We also find that the book of Revelation from the Bible seems to indicate that low prices and lack of demand were problems at the time of the collapse of ancient Babylon (Revelation 18:11-13).

Slide 12

Much of what peak oil theory misunderstands is what our society as a whole misunderstands. Most people seem to believe that our economy will grow endlessly unless we somehow act to slow it down or stop it. They cannot imagine that the economy comes with built-in brakes, provided by the laws of physics.

Armed with a belief in endless growth, economists assume that the economy can expand year after year at close to the same rate. Modelers of all kinds, including climate modelers, miss the natural feedback loops that lead to the end of fossil fuel extraction without any attempt on our part to stop its extraction. A major part of the problem is that added complexity leads to too much wage and wealth disparity. Eventually, the low wages of many of the workers filter through to oil and other energy prices, making prices too low for producers.

Collapse isn’t instantaneous, as we will see on Slide 26. As resources per capita fall too low, there are several ways to keep problems hidden. More debt at lower interest rates can be added. New financial techniques can be developed to hide problems. Increased globalization can be used. Corners can be cut on electricity transmission, installation and maintenance, and in the building of new electricity generating structures. It is only when the economy hits a bump in the road (such as a climate-related event) that there suddenly is a major problem: Electricity production fails, or not enough food is produced. In fact, California, Florida, and China have all encountered the need for rolling blackouts with respect to electricity in the past year; China is now encountering difficulty with inadequate food supply, as well.

Economists have played a major role in hiding problems with energy with their models that seem to show that prices can be expected to rise if there is a shortage of oil or other energy. Their models miss the point that adequate supplemental energy is just as important for demand as it is for supply of finished goods and services. The reason energy is important for demand is because demand depends on the wages of workers, and the wages of workers in turn depend on the productivity of those workers. The use of energy supplies to allow workers to operate tools of many kinds (such as computers, trucks, electric lights, ovens, and agricultural equipment) greatly influences the productivity of those workers.

A person who believes energy prices can rise endlessly is likely to believe that recycling can increase without limit because of ever-rising prices. Such a person is also likely to believe that the substitution of intermittent renewables for fossil fuels will work because high prices for scarce electricity will enable an approach that is inherently high-cost, if any continuity of supply is required.

Thus, the confusion isn’t so much that of peak oilers. Instead, the confusion is that of economists and scientists building models based on past history. These models miss the turning points that occur as limits approach. They assume that future patterns will replicate past patterns, but this is not what happens in a finite world. If we lived in a world without limits, their models would be correct. This confusion is very much built into today’s thinking.

In fact, we are living in an economic system/ecosystem that has brakes to it. These brakes are being applied now, even though 99%+ of the population isn’t aware of the problem. The system will protect itself, quite possibly using the approach of evicting most humans.

Slide 13

The opinions expressed in Slide 13 reflect some of the views I have heard expressed speaking with peak oilers and with people looking into issues from a biophysical economics perspective. Obviously, views differ from person to person.

Many people believe that resources in the ground provide a good estimate of the quantity of fossil fuels that can be extracted in the future. Peak oilers tend to believe that the available resources will need to have sufficiently high “Energy Returned on Energy Invested” (EROEI) ratios to make extraction feasible. Politicians and climate modelers tend to believe that prices can rise endlessly, so low EROEI is no obstacle. They seem to believe that anything that we have the technical skill to extract, even coal under the North Sea, can be extracted.

If a person believes the high estimates of fossil fuel resources that seem to be available and misses the point that the economy has built-in brakes, climate change becomes the issue of major concern.

My view is that most of the resources that seem to be available will be left in the ground because of low prices and problems associated with collapse, such as failing governments and broken supply lines. In any event, we do not really have the ability to fix the climate; the laws of physics will provide their own adjustment. We will simply need to live with whatever climate is provided. Humans lived through ice-ages in the past. Presumably, whatever humans remain after what seems to be an upcoming bottleneck will be able to live in suitable areas of the world in the future.

Slide 14

On Slide 14, note that today’s industrial economy must necessarily come to an end, just as the lives of hurricanes and of people come to an end.

Also note that with diminishing returns, the cost of producing many of the things listed on Slide 14 is rising. For example, with rising population, dry areas of the world eventually need to use desalination to get enough fresh water for their growing populations. Desalination is expensive. Even if the necessary workaround is simply deeper wells, this still adds costs.

With diminishing returns affecting many parts of the economy simultaneously, it becomes increasingly difficult for efforts in the direction of efficiency to lead to costs that are truly lower on an inflation-adjusted basis. Advanced education and health care in particular tend to have an ever-rising inflation-adjusted costs of production. Some minerals do as well, as the quality of ores depletes.

Slide 15

An important issue to note is that wages need to cover all the rising costs, even the rising cost of health care. The paychecks of many people, especially those without advanced education, fall too low to meet all of their needs.

Slide 16

Slides 16 and 17 describe some of the reasons why oil prices don’t necessarily rise with scarcity.

Slide 17
Slide 18

I was one of the co-authors of the Ke Wang paper mentioned in Slide 18. We developed three different forecasts of how much oil would be extracted in China, depending on how high oil prices would be able to rise. The Red Line is the “Stays Low” Scenario, with prices close to $50 per barrel. The Yellow Line is the “Ever-Rising Prices” Scenario. The Best Estimate reflects the expectation that prices would be in roughly the $100 to $120 barrel range, from 2015 onward.

Slide 19

In fact, oil prices have stayed fairly low, and China’s oil production has declined, as our paper predicted.

Slide 20
Slide 21

Note that the chart on Slide 21 shows wage disparity only in the US. On this basis, the share of wages going to the top 1% and top 0.1% are back at the levels that they were in the 1920s. Now, our economy is much more global. If we consider all of the low income people in the world, the worldwide wage disparity is much greater.

Slide 22

There are two things to note on Slide 22. The first is that producers, in inflation-adjusted terms, seem to need very high prices, approximately $120 per barrel or more. This is based on a presentation made by Steve Kopits, which I wrote up here: Beginning of the End? Oil Companies Cut Back on Spending.

The other thing to note is that oil prices tend to bounce around a great deal. Prices seem to depend on the amount of debt and on interest rates, as well as the wages of workers. The peak in oil prices in mid-2008 came precisely at the time the debt bubble broke with respect to mortgage and credit card debt in the US. I wrote about this in an article in the journal Energy called, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis.

The US instituted Quantitative Easing (QE) at the end of 2008. QE acted to lower interest rates. With the help of QE, the price of oil gradually rose again. When the US discontinued QE in late 2014, oil prices fell. Recently, there has been a great deal of QE done, as well as direct spending by governments, but oil prices are still far below the $120 per barrel level. Middle Eastern oil producers especially need high oil prices, in order to collect the high tax revenue that they depend upon to provide programs for their citizens.

Slide 23

Coal prices (Slide 23) tend to follow somewhat the same pattern as oil prices (Slide 22). There is very much the same balancing act with coal prices as well: Coal prices need to be high enough for producers, but not too high for customers to buy products made with coal, such as electricity and steel.

China tries to keep its coal prices relatively high in order to encourage production within the country. China has been limiting imports to try to keep prices high. The relatively high coal prices of China make it an attractive destination for coal exporters. There are now a large number of boats waiting outside China hoping to sell coal to China at an attractive price.

Slide 24

The blue line on Figure 24 represents total energy consumption up through 2020. The red dotted line is a rough guesstimate of how energy consumption might fall. This decline could happen if people wanting energy consumption coming only from renewables were able to succeed by 2050 (except I am doubtful that these renewable energy types would really be of much use by themselves).

Alternatively, this might also be the decline that our self-organizing economy takes us on. We are already seeing a decrease in energy consumption related to the current pandemic. I think governmental reactions to the pandemic were prompted, in part, by the very stretched condition of our oil and other energy supplies. Countries were experiencing riots over low wages. They also could not afford to import as much oil as they were importing. Shutdowns in response to COVID-19 cases seemed like a sensible thing to do. They helped restore order and saved on energy imports. Strangely enough, the pandemic may be a part of the collapse that our self-organizing economy is arranging for us.

Slide 25

Slide 25 takes the blue line from Slide 24 and looks at what happened in more detail. On Slide 25, we are looking at the average annual increase in energy consumption, for a given 10 year period. This is split between the rate of population growth (blue), and the energy consumption growth that went into other things, which I equate to change in “standard of living” (red). The big red humps represent very good times, economically. The post-World War II bump is especially high. The valleys are times of disturbing changes, including wars and the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Of course, all of these situations occurred during periods when energy consumption was generally rising. If these unfortunate things happened when oil consumption was rising, what might possibly happen when energy consumption is falling?

Slide 26

We now seem to be hitting the Crisis Stage. In the past, collapse (which takes place in the Crisis Stage) has not been instantaneous; it has taken place over quite a number of years, typically 20 or more. The world economy is quite different now, with its international trade system and heavy use of debt. It would seem likely that a collapse could happen more quickly. A common characteristic of collapses, such as avalanches, is that they often seem to start off fairly slowly. Then, suddenly, a large piece breaks away, and there is a big collapse. Something analogous to this could possibly happen with the economy, too.

Slide 27

One of the major issues with adding intermittent renewables to the electric grid is a pricing problem. Once wind and solar are given subsidies (even the subsidy of “going first”), all of the other types of electricity production seem to need subsidies, as well. It is the pricing systems that are terribly detrimental, although this is not generally noticed. In fact, researchers who are looking only at energy may not even care if the pricing is wrong. Ultimately, the low pricing for electricity can be expected to bring the electric grid down, just as inadequate prices for fossil fuels can be expected to lead to the closure of many fossil fuel producers. Both Texas and California are having difficulty because they have not been collecting enough funds from customers to build resilient systems.

Slide 28
Slide 29

The focus of EROEI research is often with respect to whether the EROEI of a particular type of energy production is “high enough,” relative to some goal, such as 3:1 or 10:1. I believe that there needs to be more focus on the total quantity of net energy produced. If there is an EROEI goal for highly complex energy types, it needs to be much higher than for less complex energy types.

Slide 30

Today, it is common to see the EROEIs of a number of different types of energy displayed side-by-side as if they were comparable. This type of comparison is also made with other energy metrics, such as “Levelized Cost of Electricity” and “Energy Payback Period.” I think this approach makes highly complex types of energy production, such as intermittent wind and solar, look better than they really are. Even intermittent hydroelectric power generation, such as is encountered in places with rainy seasons and dry seasons and in places that are subject to frequent droughts, is not really comparable to electricity supply that can be provided year-around by fossil fuel providers, if adequate storage is available.

Slide 31

Earlier in this post, I documented a number of reasons why we should expect low rather than high energy prices in the future. I am reiterating the point here because it is a point energy researchers need especially to be aware of. Production is likely to come to an end because it is unprofitable.

Slide 32

One characteristic of human-made complexity is that it has very little redundancy. If something goes wrong in one part of one system, it is likely to ripple through that system, as well as other systems to which the first system is connected. An outage of oil is likely to indirectly affect electricity because oil is needed to fix problems with electricity transmission lines. An electricity outage may cause disruption in oil drilling and refining, and even in filling up automobiles at service stations. An international trade disruption can break supply lines and leave shipping containers at the wrong end of the globe.

We know that collapse tends to lead to less complex systems. We should expect fewer jobs requiring advanced education. We should expect to start losing battles against infectious diseases. We should expect a reduction in international trade; in the future, it may primarily take place among a few trusted partners. Some intergovernmental organizations are likely to disappear. Peak oil cannot happen by itself; it can only happen with disruptions and shrinkage in many other parts of the economy, as well.

Slide 33

The climate is indeed changing. Unfortunately, we humans have little ability to change what is happening, especially at this late date. Arguably, some changes could have been made much earlier, for example in the 1970s when the modeling included in the 1972 book The Limits to Growth by Donnela Meadows and others showed that the world economy was likely to hit limits before 2050.

It is clear to many people that the world economy is now struggling. There is too much debt; young people are having trouble finding jobs that pay well enough; people in poor countries are increasingly more food insecure. Leaders everywhere would like solutions. The “easy” solution to offer is that intermittent wind and solar will solve all our problems, including climate change. The closer a person looks at the situation, the more the solution seems like nonsense. Wind and solar work passably well at small concentrations within electric systems, if it is possible to work around their pricing problems. But they don’t scale up well. Energy researchers especially should be aware of these difficulties.

The book Rare Earth: Why Complex Life Is Uncommon in the Universe by Peter Ward and Donald Brownlee points out that there have been an amazing number of what seem to be coincidences that have allowed life on Earth to flourish for four billion years. Perhaps these coincidences will continue. Perhaps there is an underlying plan that we are not aware of.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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3,333 Responses to Why Collapse Occurs; Why It May Not Be Far Away

  1. Minority Of One says:

    Yesterday’s China In Focus did a short update on China’s food imports.

    Minutes 6:05 – 7:40
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pt8GdUuHuOI

    Some nuggets of info:

    SInce 2014, China has been the world’s largest importer of food.
    Since 2015, China has imported more than 100 M tonnes of grain / year.
    Last year imported 142 M tonnes of grains, 30% more than the year before.

    • The video also mentions that corruption is an issue as well. Some Chinese officials are believed to be taking some of the grain supplies available and selling them for profit.

      I would note that if there are now more living pigs (after the African Swine Flu epidemic abated), China would need more corn and perhaps other grains just to feed them.

    • Tim Groves says:

      142 M tonnes of grains for 1.42 billion people works out at 100kg of imported grains per capita. Of course, a lot of this is fed to chickens and pigs before making its way up the food chain, but it is still, what’s the word….ah yes, unsustainable in a post BAU world.

  2. Kowalainen says:

    A wannabe sanctimonious hypocrite herder at Google fired after wanting to curate content for AI training purposes. Now, what could possibly go wrong when lying to machines about the hot mess that is objective reality? Wrong decisions and conclusions perhaps?

    https://www.zdnet.com/google-amp/article/google-fires-top-ethical-ai-expert-margaret-mitchell/
    ”Google has fired the co-lead of the company’s ethical AI unit, Margaret Mitchell, on the heels of the removal of Timnit Gebru.”

    Exactly how much useless eatery and sanctimony can IC withstand? It is incredible how much people want to meddle with objective reality just to feel good about themselves.

    The ‘ethical AI’ team should be ashamed of themselves. Don’t fuck around with machines. Just silently go away into irrelevance.

    • Tsubion says:

      Ethical AI. That’s hilarious!

    • Actuaries are being drawn into this mess as well. The indicators they use to determine who is most likely to file a false homeowners or automobile claims (typically for existing damage) invariably lead them to poor people, often of color. People with expected short life expectancies are also poor, less educated people.

  3. MG says:

    The new proposed tax reform in Slovakia should motivate working, not owning.

    https://ekonomika.pravda.sk/ludia/clanok/579043-heger-chysta-danovu-reformu-ma-vraj-motivovat-pracovat-a-nevlastnit/

    Google Transalte:

    “You have a bigger house, so pay. Lower income tax and higher real estate tax – this is how the Ministry of Finance imagines a new tax mix. The head of the Ministry of Finance, Eduard Heger (OĽaNO), wants to present the details of the planned tax reform in the coming weeks. However, it is already clear that he will be aiming for property and services.

    “We want the tax system to remain burden-neutral, but for the sake of attractiveness, we have to go down on the labor side. That’s why it is absolutely necessary to go up somewhere, especially on the side of property and excise taxes, “says Heger. This is not the first attempt to increase property taxes. Former governments have tried twice before.

    For the first time, almost ten years ago, the then government party Smer planned to tax the owners of larger flats and houses under the guise of a luxury tax. For the second time in 2017, those who live in multi-storey real estate were supposed to reach deeper into their pockets. However, both attempts eventually failed. Not only was it not easy to define what a luxury apartment or house is. But it also turned out that the owners of large houses in the countryside pay the most for it. Among them, especially the elderly, who bet on multi-generational houses in the vision that children will stay with them. However, they mostly went to work in big cities. And they are not the only ones.”

    The catch is that there is a lot of big old energy inefficient houses owned by pensioners with low pensions. The creativity of the proposals goes beyond this in a way that the tax should be passed onto the following owner, i. e. a heir etc.

    Imagine, you are going to inherit such an energy sink: you better give it up and the state takes it. That way the state can easily become an owner of the properties that no one wants anymore in the ageing and the depopulating world that is sinking into energy poverty…

    • Sergey says:

      I guess pensioners will be unable to heat & electrify large houses. They will sell/leave it anyway with or without raised taxes. Same tendency I see around.

      • Correct and more over on the specifics of the ploy, the EU in cahoots with nat govs forced legislation banning even the use of automatic feeder coal furnaces (promoted few years back), which are reasonably clean smoke stack technology (also depending on the coal variety in the region).. and being quite handy – suitable for these older brick / stone multi story (-generational) houses in the countryside with long winter / cold season.

        The alternatives are way more expensive or unavailable (natgas, e-heating, air or ground heat pumps / renewables, biomass, .. ).

      • Xabier says:

        When I was looking for a house in the Pyrenees there were large numbers of these big rural family houses for sale, many well-built at the end of the 20th century, and in beautiful locations, but of no interest to younger people – they can’t even afford apartments in town, and won’t be having big families like my father. A tiny apartment right on top of their work is their only thought.

    • I know Ugo Bardi in Italy has written about inheriting a big, energy inefficient home in Italy from his parents. He found that the upkeep needs and heating/cooling needs were just too much. He moved back into an apartment in the city.

  4. Fast Eddy says:

    Off to the ovens with you CovIDIOT MORE ONS!

    Hong Kong’s Covid-19 vaccination programme to open 200,000 slots on Monday

    Carers and the elderly among those queued up around the city on Friday morning, with officials describing the first-day operation as ‘very smooth’

    https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3123179/coronavirus-hong-kong-mobilised-mass-vaccination

    The conveyor belt to the graveyard – excellent. More than excellent.

    • Tsubion says:

      I bet you never thought you would get to marvel at the voluntary anhililation of the human species…

      Me neither!

      And yet… here we are!

      Instead of mad max, hunger games, 12 monkeys, walking dead…

      We get a rather bland euthenasia of sorts.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I have long though the Elders would not just allow us rip each other’s faces off when collapse arrived…

        I actually expected they might provide everyone a way out … in the form of Oxycontin… but I suppose they thought of that and decided most people are too stoopid and they’d act like tough guys and try to fight even though there is no point in fighting (see spent fuel ponds).

        That is the best my 700IQ could come up with — but the Elders have legions of 150 IQers who are able to mind meld and create single entities with aggregated IQs in the tens of thousands…. I am no match for that….

        And look what they have come up with — is this not GENIUS!!! A fake virus … to defeat a ‘virus’… and a Trojan Horse vaccine…. they even threw in a little irony…. magnificent…. this has the makings of a Star Trek movie.

        Doesn’t this feel like a dream? Or maybe like you’re a player in a sophisticated video game… and the game is about to end…

        Could the Great Reset actually mean that this version of the game is being put to bed … and a new improved version is about to be introduced to the market???

        • Tsubion says:

          It has become apparent to me that we are dealing with different factions of elders (grabblers).

          We have the satanic sadistic pervs. Nuff said.

          We have the ones that are in it for da money – same as it ever was.

          And then there’s the ones that truly believe that they are the custodians of the flock.

          These are the ones that I find the most disturbing. They terrify the shart out of me.

          They actually CARE! Or do a good job pretending they do.

          These are the ones that give us all the false idols to worship (renewables, evs, crypto, mars) because they know that we need them otherwise our lesser brains would implode and the gig would be up.

          These are the ones that enjoy lording it over the flock and reaping the benefits of unadulterated megalomania.

          These are the ones that want to inject us with their love.

          I call these the Elite Master Farmers.

          And sometimes… they just gotta kill a chicken.

      • JMS says:

        Death by dumbness. Why not? After all, dumb is homo sapiens middle name. If we ‘re not intrinsically blind to the idea of limits, we would never have fallen into the trap of civilization and progress in the first place.
        Maximum power principle X finite planet (diminishing returns) = Inevitable overshoot and collapse.
        Until December 2019 we talked about the inevitable collapse. Now we begin to experience it. How long to the light goes off? Location, location. Few years in peripheral countries, maybe +10? in the core. Who knows?
        Anyway, we are lucky enough to be experiencing and watching live The Collapse of the Most Powerful Civilization Ever. How awesome is that?

        • Nehemiah says:

          “dumb is homo sapiens middle name”.– So, instead of “wise man” you say it is really “wise dumb man?”

          • JMS says:

            Wise in the dumbest way. Dumb in the wisest way.

            I am almost sure that the designation “sapiens” was coined by a member of the species in question, in a kind of publicity stunt. And of course PR people always have a difficult relationship with truth.
            I suspect extraterrestrials have a less flattering name for us. 🙂

  5. Going forward, it would be important to address other recommendations, including the enhancement of regulatory capital requirements for banks’ mortgage exposures, which remains relevant amid continuously tight housing market conditions, and, in the near term, pandemic-related risks, which could affect the ability of households to service elevated levels of debt.
    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2021/02/11/mcs021221-canada-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2021-article-iv-mission

    What we were told was that in order to offset what was essentially an economic collapse on an international scale, the federal government was going to offer Canadians a total debt relief.

    This is how it works:

    The federal government will offer to eliminate all personal debts (mortgages, loans, credit cards, etc) which all funding will be provided to Canada by the IMF under what will become known as the World Debt Reset program.

    In exchange for acceptance of this total debt forgiveness, the individual would forfeit ownership of any and all property and assets forever. The individual would also have to agree to partake in the COVID-19 and COVID-21 vaccination schedule, which would provide the individual with unrestricted travel and unrestricted living even under a full lockdown (through the use of photo identification referred to as Canada’s HealthPass).

    Committee members asked who would become the owner of the forfeited property and assets in that scenario and what would happen to lenders or financial institutions, we were simply told: “the World Debt Reset program will handle all of the details”.

    • Someone, somewhere (banks, pension funds?) are on the other end of all of this debt. How are they to operate? Can a bank or pension fund get a COVID-19 shot and be “made whole” again?

  6. Variants will likely make up 40% of Ontario’s COVID-19 cases by mid-March, modelling predicts

    Ontario’s public health measures have decreased COVID-19 transmission and have slowed the spread of variants of concern, according to modelling released by the province’s advisory group on Thursday.

    But that good news comes with a caveat. According to the science table, variants of concern like B117 are continuing to spread and cases, hospitalizations and ICU admissions will likely increase soon.
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-february-25-2021-1.5927580

    – Projected COVID-19 mutation and/or co-infection with a secondary virus (referred to as COVID-21) leading to a third wave with much higher mortality rate and higher rate of infection. Expected by February 2021.

    – Daily new cases of COVID-21 hospitalizations and COVID-19 and COVID-21 related deaths will exceed medical care facilities capacity. Expected Q1 – Q2 2021.

    • Tsubion says:

      Oh pl..ease. What a load of b*******!

      New variant = modify the genome model on the computer.

      Techincally, you could keep the scam going forever… but only if the general public stays in a state of ignorance and fear for long enough. The spell is already wearing off.

      Viral contagion has never been shown to exist after hundreds of studies. Virology is pseudoscience based on assumption not evidence.

      • Nehemiah says:

        @Tsubion, can you cite a scientific paper that will support your claim, or do all of your claims come from internet propagandists addressing the uninformed general public who cannot see through their errors?

        • richarda says:

          straight from the horse’s mouth

        • Tsubion says:

          Ok ya got me!

          I am simply quoting the work of…

          Dr Stefan Lanka
          Dr Andrew Kaufman
          Dr Dolores Cahill
          Dr Sherry Tenpenny
          Dr Sucharit Bakdi
          The Great Barrington group

          And the original opposition to Pasteurs lies – Bechamp et al – much of which was suppressed so that Rockeffeler Big Pharma could profit.

          I’ve found a common pattern among those opposing the official narrative on covid.

          The virologists with long corporate careers are more heavily invested in the official virus mythology – obviously – but they at least admit that the whole thing is a farce.

          Independent microbiologists are more open to questioning the official background on viruses and what they actually might be with some going as far as questioning the true isolation and purification of sars and it’s ability to cause disease.

          None deny the existence of these particles but plenty throughtout the history have questioned whether they are the cause of disease or just happen to be at the crime scene when under observation.

          We manufacture viruses. We’re made of bacteria and fungus. A balanced healthy organism manages all of these elements without a problem.

          Why is it that only the weak and infirm succomb to these so called pathogens? And the rest of the population doesn’t even blink? It’s more likely that the small number of “infected” are suffering a deficiency or debility of some sort which lead to the production of these virus particles. Over production can overwhelm the system leading to death.

          When under stress (toxins etc) cells manufacture virus, bacteria creating a process that flushes these out. We feel sick, we recover and go about our lives.

          You can put 1000 people in a room with a “pathogen” and only one person gets sick. What should you investigate? The reason why the 999 didn’t feel a thing or why the 1 person became sick?

          The arguments presented in the books and videos that I have consumed over the past year have not only opened my eyes but have also convinced me that I was wrong, that I had believed something my whole life because it was the prevailing dogma and even made some sense.

          I have now embraced terrain theory because it makes much more sense than the previous dogma and even explains where the prevaling dogma breaks down.

          It’s not a question of belief or of what you may have been indoctrinated with. It’s a question of following the trail when new or suppressed evidence is presented.

          Here’s an example… I suffered from horrible persistent “colds” when I was younger. Both doctor and patient assumed that I had weak immunity and was therefore more susceptible to “catching” cold viruses.

          Later I noticed that my symptoms would get worse when I consumed dairy. So I cut all dairy from my diet. And I haven’t had a cold since. For many decades. My immune tests are at 100%. Nutrition too.

          My understanding now is that if you are in good shape you can’t develop symptoms of “infection” unless you lower your immune response in some way – cold and wet, drug use, pollution, extreme stress, allergies etc.

          I actually don’t think we’re going to need any more studies on this. People are going to look after their own health from now on as many already do.

          The ones that don’t are going to continue to suffer “modern illnesses” that may be increasingly blamed on “virus outbreaks”.

          As things wind down, less water treatment etc more prevalence of disease in large numbers but not contagion – individual contamination of large numbers.

          Investigate German New Medicine.

          • JMS says:

            Pretty much my story, Tsubion. Until March 2020, it had never even crossed my mind that the germ theory was not as solid as the law of gravitation.

            I must say a’m very grateful to covidscam for making me dive headfirst into that rabbit hole.
            I certainly did not carry out an investigation as exhaustive as you, but what I read convinced me that the germ theory doesn’t make any sense, it’s silly in fact, if we think that we all come in contact with billions of viruses every day and they are part of our microbiome.
            Infectiology it’s just a very profitable fabrication of the chemical industry.
            If our immune system depended on vaccines, humanity would never have lived long enough to invent them. Or, in other words:

            https://images.app.goo.gl/rrQqrwjAQz9tGvEu7

        • Tsubion says:

          An actual investigation into “the science” of discovering viruses would consider dissident views. For example, here is what German virologist Stefan Lanka has written about this process: [5]

          “Individual molecules are extracted from the components of dead tissue and cells, they are misinterpreted to be part of a virus and are theoretically put together into a virus model…”

          “With only a few mouseclicks, a program can arrange [an outcome] as desired, by putting together short sequences of nucleic acids from dead tissue and cells with a determined biochemical composition, a larger genetic sequence that is supposed to represent the complete genome of an old or new virus. In reality, not even this manipulation, called ‘alignment’, can result in the ‘complete’ genetic material of a virus which could then be called its genome.”

          “In this process of theoretical construction of the so-called ‘viral DNA or viral RNA strands’, those sequences that don’t fit are ‘smoothed out’ and missing ones are added. Thus, a RNA or DNA sequence is invented which doesn’t exist in reality and which was never discovered [or] scientifically demonstrated as a whole.”

          A hundred years ago, if you had asked a virologist what was causing a devastating skin disease in the American South, called pellagra, he would have authoritatively told you it was a virus. And perhaps you then would have written to a journalist who’d stated there was no proof for the virus theory: “I learned from a virologist that a virus is definitely causing these skin outbreaks…”

          But the cause turned out to be a niacin deficiency.

          https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/10/jon-rappoport/but-i-spoke-with-my-virologist-friend-and-he-said/

  7. Fast Eddy says:

    Another story dreamed up by the PR Team tasked with distracting the MORE ONS

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/fbi-aware-of-possible-ufo-spotting-wont-confirm-investigation_3711454.html

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      I won’t be reading that, but I notice that you have been distracted by it. 😉

    • Xabier says:

      They are probably keeping an ‘Alien Reveal’ up their sleeve, just in case it’s needed. I believe there is also a ‘Jesus Reveal’ as well.

      After the COVID scam, it wouldn’t be impossible to imagine this sort of thing.

      • Kowalainen says:

        I am foreseeing the aliens building Fast Eddys “sun pipe™“.

        Then we all are saved, aliens and god personified. Fucking things up and then expect big daddy to clean up our mess.

        How about no?

      • Inquiring minds think alike, there are lot of msm/bolly/holly/-wood contractors to hire which can impact ~40% of the pop for a while..

        Although I’d imagine it will be more like Bidet-Xiden in front of “live feed” from Mars mission terminal exchanging text messages with the outer space race.

        Silly, yet almost as effective (for a while) and way cheaper..

      • Fast Eddy says:

        If they really want to distract then how about reveals of the JFK murder… 911…. oh and best of all … let’s drop a bombshell — the Moon Landings were faked…

        Actually the moon landings were faked… because they created the perception that we could escape Earth and that we could use technology to overcome the problem of peaking oil — remember that the US was hitting peak production at the time.

        This was followed by other scams including renewable energy and EVs….

        • Nehemiah says:

          Then why have “they” not faked a manned moon landing since 1972? Why have the Russians or the Chinese never faked one?

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Did you notice how the Chinese landed on the ‘far side’ of the moon in 2019? We are told they gathered some rocks and flew back to earth…. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon_landing

            Why do you think they landed on the far side of the moon?

            I reckon this question could be easily answered by someone with an a 80-85 IQ….

            • Nehemiah says:

              That was an unmanned landing. The Chinese have not put a MAN (as in human) on the moon, and do not claim to have done so.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Yes… so why would they land on the far side?

              As for men on the moon – we have never been beyond low orbit because that is impossible — humans cannot survive in deep space

              Here’s a NASA engineer admitting it… (or maybe it’s a very elaborate fake?)

              https://youtu.be/bMfUpqnLFCc

              This interview was not released until after his death – Kubrick admits to faking the moon landings

              And my all-time favourite:

              https://centerforaninformedamerica.com/moondoggie/

              Dave was a genius — but he was not quite Fast Eddy… we diverge on the why of it all… he thinks it was cover for war crimes in Vietnam…

              I believe it was related to the realization that there was no alternative to oil … that US production was peaking … and that the masses needed to believe we could ‘do anything if we set our minds to it’ coupled with demonstrating that once we had sucked this planet dry we could set sail for another planet and burn it to the ground as well…

              This explains why the Russians did not expose this massive fraud…. it is in everyone’s interest to participate in the lie … because if humans got wind of the fact we are running out of oil and we cannot in fact fly off to Planet Utopia… (i.e. that there is no future for them and their little nasty bastard children)…. that would make for a very unsettled farm…. and the Elders want and need their barnyard animals to be content and tranquil… they need them to breed…

              I wonder if the NSA people keep a file on Fast Eddy … monitoring every key stroke …. then pass this stuff on to the Elders… if they do it seems they don’t mind as they don’t shut Fast Eddy down… I suspect they sit in their oak-panelled rooms and marvel at Fast Eddy’s ability to see through the matrix.

              They’d probably like to recruit Fast Eddy … maybe if I change me handle to Fast Eddy Goldstein that door would swing open?

            • The NASA engineer in 2017 seems to say at about 3:20, “We have to pass this danger zone (Van Allen Belt) twice, once up and once on the way back. But Orion has protection. Shielding will be put to the test, as the vehicle cuts through the waves of radiation. Sensors onboard will record radiation levels for scientists to study. We must solve these challenges before we send people through this region of space.”

              I found this article talking about the Van Allen Belt.
              https://www.space.com/33948-van-allen-radiation-belts.html

              It says,

              The astronauts on the ISS do not regularly spend time inside the belts, but from time to time solar storms expand the belts to the orbit of the space station. In the 1960s, several Apollo crews went through the Van Allen belts on their way to and from the moon. Their time in that radiation-intensive region, however, was very short, in part because the trajectory was designed to pass through the thinnest known parts. With more study, astronauts can be better protected for long-term stays in Earth orbit.

              “We study radiation belts because they pose a hazard to spacecraft and astronauts,” said David Sibeck, the Van Allen Probes mission scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland, in an August 2016 NASA statement. “If you knew how bad the radiation could get, you would build a better spacecraft to accommodate that.”

              So NASA has come up with a story that seems to say that going through the Van Allen belt, without a whole lot of shielding, was possible.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              NASA would of course invent some BS as to how they got through…

              However the problem is — that video is about how NASA is trying to build a space craft (The Orion) that will allow not only humans to pass though but also ensure on board electronics do not get fried.

              Odd… why don’t they just do what they did when they flew to the moon 50 years ago?

              If you read Moon Doggies — not only were the tapes erased https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nasa-tapes-idUSTRE56F5MK20090716 (the biggest moments in the history of man and someone used them to tape reruns of the Flinstones? hahaha) …. something like 70 crates of all moon landing stuff was ‘lost’…

              So they don’t have any of the plans, data or other useful stuff from the 60’s…. so they have to start from scratch…

              Funny with all the tech advances that we don’t have weekly moon tours by now… funny we keep saying we are going back but we need a decade to plan the trip (Bush said we’d be going back by 2020)…. why do we need to plan? Can’t we just go like we did back then?

              In spite of this utter bs people will still insist we have been to the moon and back … but then that is no surprise — mostly people still believe lockdowns are awesome even though Sweden is not in the top 20 deaths per capita list Covid….

              Look at this … thing…. it looks like someone made it in their garage…. oh … and look at the the landing site — not even the slightest crater from the down blast of the engines…

              http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-mxXGBS_KtME/U7klezkcQSI/AAAAAAAANkw/MJcPCWMEiEs/s1600/Apollo-12-Lunar-Module-01.jpg

            • Ed says:

              Just watched a great video moon the moon lander software.
              https://youtu.be/B1J2RMorJXM

  8. Questioner says:

    What about if the new engine-ered va-seen is to give us the spok pro-teen designed to protect us from imm-inent bio de pop engine—ering? I’m very serious about this. Or am I going crazy trying to 2nd think something or somebody. In 2004 I had a major from the Aus SAS read and develop and try out fire focus groups in instrumental circles a PhD on future scenarios planning and defence. this is which he presented to the minister of defence in a scheduled 20 meeting that turned into an hour and briefing. It was on scen?ario planning for the future cli-mate or bio the engine earring either from abroad or within.

    • NomadicBeer says:

      Hi Questioner,
      I have no answer to your questions.
      I know that in the last year I had many dark days when I imagined the worst and when I have seen the sheep-like behavior of most people.

      Please don’t fall into despair – we always knew that there are things that we cannot control (death, weather). The only difference is that this time the thing we cannot control is the other people.

      Like most people I imagined myself rational and expected other people to be the same. Of course the truth is that neither me nor other people are rational so the only thing to do is to try to avoid the bad emotions. I slowed down the reading of conspiracy related news (even though I think some are right) and I am focusing on my day to day life. Like Voltaire said, first take care of your garden.

      Good luck!

  9. Lebanon’s caretaker Energy Minister Raymond Ghajar revealed on Tuesday that its ministry cannot pay for fuel to generate electricity beyond March.

    “We are headed towards a difficult situation, if there is no fuel there will be no electricity,” Ghajar told Reuters.

    According to Ghajar, unless more financing is approved, the crisis-ridden country will face even more power cuts for several hours each day.
    https://www.the961.com/lebanon-no-electricity-beyond-march/

    • Perhaps Lebanon can print money and buy fuel for electricity, if I listen to the proponents of MMT. I am afraid it won’t work, however.

    • Nehemiah says:

      Is this why countries with cold winters tend to be more successful than countries in warmer climes? Cold winters weed out those who do not plan well for the future?

    • This is a long article, detailing what has been done and some of what is left to do. The map provided shows that there is still a large area which is called a “difficult-to-return” zone. People have still not been let back into this area, as I understand the article. There is an outer area that is no longer under evacuation orders.

      Going forward, Japan plans to use less nuclear electricity. According to the article,

      Up until 2011, Japan was generating some 30% of electricity from its reactors, and this was expected to increase to at least 40% by 2017. The plan is now for at most 20% by 2030, from a depleted fleet. The first two reactors restarted in August and October 2015, with a further seven having restarted since. 18 reactors are currently in the process of restart approval.

      The effect on the rest of the world appears to be modest, according to some researchers.

      Most countries are doing what they would have done otherwise.

  10. Fast Eddy says:

    “Look for ways to increase insecurity, anxiety and uncertainty” – Zero Covid document

    Gript can reveal that members of the Zero-Covid advocacy group ISAG have recently been instructed to “look for ways to increase insecurity, anxiety, and uncertainty.”

    The revelation comes from a trove of hundreds of emails, draft documents, and ISAG internal communications that were recently leaked to Gript.

    ISAG members were instructed to “review and internalise” instructions to “look for ways to increase insecurity, anxiety, and uncertainty”, and to “go after people and not institutions” because “people hurt faster than institutions.”

    The instructions were shared to the group by Professor Anthony Staines, one of the founders of ISAG, in a note titled, “Notes from 2020-02-08 ISAG meeting” (the note’s title contains a typo, it was actually posted on the 8th of February, 2021). The note reminded ISAG members of the importance of ridicule as “man’s most powerful weapon” and that “the threat of a thing is usually more terrifying than the thing itself.” ISAG members, many of whom are regular guests in Irish media, were told that they could count on “imagination” to “dream up many more consequences” than they themselves as “the threat is usually more terrifying than the thing itself.”

    These instructions are based on Saul Alinsky’s book Rules for Radicals, which argues that the creation of conflict is necessary for activists to succeed and that organizers should find, or create, an “enemy” who can be singled out, personally blamed for everything that has gone wrong, and attacked and ridiculed unmercifully – regardless of if the chosen “enemy” actually bears responsibility for the things you are blaming him for. The book tells organizers to allow “no middle ground.”

    Interestingly a copy of Alinsky’s Rules was sent to ISAG by Dr Gabriel Scally, a Northern Irish public health physician best known in the Republic for authoring the Scally Review into CervicalCheck. Dr Scally is involved with the Zero-Covid advocacy group Independent SAGE and has made numerous comments to Irish media on the need to support the adoption of Zero-Covid policies within Ireland. Independent SAGE was set up as a left-wing alternative to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) which is advising the British Government.

    https://gript.ie/look-for-ways-to-increase-insecurity-anxiety-and-uncertainty-zero-covid-document/

    Duncan … as you are our CovIDIOCY Barometer…. perhaps you could comment on this leak… specifically does it make you suspect that this Covid thing is part of some sort of Master Plan?

    If not then what are your thoughts? Or are you just sitting there staring blankly at the screen as you might if I posted a math problem that only Gail’s husband could decipher?

  11. SomeoneInAsia says:

    QUOTE: ***Most people seem to believe that our economy will grow endlessly unless we somehow act to slow it down or stop it. They cannot imagine that the economy comes with built-in brakes, provided by the laws of physics.

    Armed with a belief in endless growth, economists assume that the economy can expand year after year at close to the same rate. Modelers of all kinds, including climate modelers, miss the natural feedback loops that lead to the end of fossil fuel extraction without any attempt on our part to stop its extraction.***

    What defeats my understanding is how this godforsaken belief in endless growth could ever have arisen and become universally accepted in the West. And given that none of the eggheads from the Ivy-League institutes of higher learning ever came together to seriously dispute this belief or alert the public to its dangers (AFAIK), I dare say the prestige attached to the said institutes is just so much bull, after all.

    The world ought to be a large enough place to allow for all sorts of crazy beliefs as long as the people who follow them don’t come and screw up my home turf by following them, or worse, screw up the only known ball of rock in the Universe suitable for my butt to rest on. Sadly the one crazy belief to out-crazy them all is doing just that.

    I love Western civilization.

    • There isn’t a direct conspiracy, but the educational institutions and the industry that writes books for those institutions desperately need a story that they can tell students, saying that there will always be a market for the jobs that they are preparing for. Even if fossil fuels are limited in supply, they somehow need to present a story that we are fortunate enough to have substitutes which can take their place. Also, they need to tell a story about recycling becoming a growth industry, and how a transition to electric cars will fix our oil problems.

      I have been approached by academic publishers and been told, “Our business plan is to sell books that can be sold for 20 years. The books need to appeal to both faculty and students. While it might be possible to give a little bit of bad news, it always needs to be only a very small part of an overall story. The ultimate story needs to support the view that many high-paying jobs in technical fields will continue to be available to young people who prepare themselves properly.”

      • Kowalainen says:

        Total amount of engineers in the world: 10 to 20M. We all know the total population.

        Ask yourself; who will uncle Bill and big daddy Klaus bring along on the digital “ark”? Throw in a few roughnecks, carpenters and the usual suspects from the artisanry and say, tops 100M.

        Useless eaters or people that knows how to operate the shebang? That’s just too easy.

        Good riddance. Unless of course… Now where are those bicycles and plant based diets once again?

        🤣👍

  12. davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    I appreciate the in depth thoughts on wage disparity.

    slide 4… Consumers = Employees.

    as the affordability of goods and services declines, the average consumer will have to direct less of their spending towards non-essentials, and so businesses which produce non-essentials will need less employees, and so wage disparity will worsen.

    this is a downward spiral.

    I suspect that the main sign of imminent collapse will be a period of severely high unemployment.

    (which suggests that hyperinflation will not be the main sign.)

    this is speculative, but is based on the seemingly unsolvable problem of wage disparity.

    • I think you are right. If the cost of producing essentials rises, the businesses that produce non-essentials are going to need fewer and fewer employees. This by itself, will produce a downward cycle of the economy.

      Today, we hide high unemployment by ignoring the many people who have left the job market completely.

      • Another thought: As soon as we define health care and higher education to be essential, the total cost of essentials tends to rise, if we allow the costs of these systems to explode. This, by itself, can lead to a downward spiral.

  13. Is The World About To See An Oil Shortage?

    U.S. and global oil demand through mid-February 2021 nearly returned to pre-COVID-19 levels due to higher needs in refining.
    Global oil demand has exceeded supply since Q3 2020, and projections through 2022 call for record two-year demand growth that could require virtually all the world’s spare oil production capacity.
    Additionally, oil production declines naturally and must be replaced; together with oil demand growth, the world could require more than 14 million barrels per day of new production by 2022.
    Global oil drilling activity and capital investments have remained historically weak, suggesting a potential supply.
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4408961-is-world-about-to-see-oil-shortage

    • Except that higher oil prices quickly feed back to lead to lower demand, and the system self-corrects.

      I notice that a lot of stock markets around the world are down, including the Nikkei 225 (Japan), Hang Seng (Hong Kong) and BSE Sensex (India). The US treasury interest rate is at the high level of yesterday afternoon. High US treasury interest rates act in the same direction as high oil prices to push the economy downward.

  14. Queen tells vaccine refusers to ‘think about other people rather than themselves’

    The Queen has said her Covid-19 jab “didn’t hurt at all” as she encouraged those hesitant about vaccination to “think about other people rather than themselves”.

    The head of state, who was inoculated in January, said after having the vaccine you felt “protected”, which she described as “important” during a video call with health leaders delivering the Covid-19 vaccine across the four nations.

    Asked for “feedback” about her vaccination experience, she chuckled as she told the officials “it was quite harmless”.
    https://www.lancs.live/news/lancashire-news/queen-tells-vaccine-refusers-think-19918857

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Lying.

      • Xabier says:

        And this must mean that vaccine take-up in he UK is going not very well – positive news in a way, having to wheel the old bird out for such crude propaganda.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          I think Matt Hancock laughing when he was trying to fake cry might have damaged the narrative a little….

    • Sunface Jack says:

      Maybe someone should tell the Queen maybe she should ‘think about other people rather than themselves’.

    • Xabier says:

      The final degradation of the Royal Family – quite disgusting.

      Whereas her mother would probably have maintained that a few of her favourite cocktails a day would see anything away without resort to vaccines.

  15. Vaccine ‘passports’ in the works in Quebec, says minister, despite concerns globally and from Trudeau

    MONTREAL — The idea of giving citizens “passports” proving they’ve been vaccinated is controversial around the world, and in Ottawa—but less so in Quebec, whose health minister said Thursday that the province is going full steam ahead on the idea.

    “The goal is easy,” said Quebec Health Minister Christian Dubé when asked about passports at a press conference.

    Passports would be “quite helpful,” he added later. He said it’s natural for people who are “enthusiasts” about getting vaccinated that they’d want proof, and businesses are calling for it as well.

    “I heard many enterprises that said they would like to be able… to open their doors if they had the proof that the people inside [had been vaccinated],” he said.
    https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/vaccine-passports-in-the-works-in-quebec-says-minister-despite-concerns-globally-and-from-trudeau-1.5325000

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Another lucky guess by that the guy who wrote the fake leak …. I must find him and ask him to choose my lotto numbers

    • Kowalainen says:

      I think it is a good idea; wanna continue with the rapacious shenanigans, accept the vax. Reasonable people accept finite world issues and make adjustments to their life’s. No vax needed.

  16. In pictures: World’s first event open only to people who have had a COVID vaccine

    Music concerts are being held once again in Israel in a way that could set a precedent in a world longing for a return to normal as soon as possible – attendees had to present a vaccine passport to gain entry.

    The open-air concert in Tel Aviv on Wednesday was one of the first in a programme to restart cultural events by restricting attendance to people who have been vaccinated or those with immunity after contracting COVID.

    Attendees were required to show a government-validated “green pass” showing they had received both doses of the vaccine more than a week prior to the event, or that they had recovered from COVID-19 and were presumed immune.

    The passes are valid for six months from the time of full vaccination.
    https://ca.style.yahoo.com/in-pictures-worlds-first-event-open-only-to-people-who-have-had-a-covid-vaccine-173115771.html

  17. EU Told to Back Vaccine Passports or Google Will Do Them Anyway

    During a five-hour video call, the EU’s 27 leaders focused on how to haul their nations back to a form of normalcy after a pandemic that’s claimed more than 500,000 lives and shut down large parts of their economies. While there was broad support for certificates of some sort, leaders didn’t agree on the type of privileges they would grant.

    ”We have all agreed that we need vaccine certificates,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel told reporters after the talks. “In the future, it will certainly be good to have such a certificate but that will not mean that only those who have such a passport will be able to travel; about that, no political decisions have been made yet.”
    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/eu-told-to-back-vaccine-passports-or-google-will-do-them-anyway-1.1568881

    • Tsubion says:

      All government workers should be injected first. They are obviously more essential than the rest of the population and in need of extra protection. I think they should receive every dose of every gene therapy product on the market before anyone else. We need to make sure that the drugs are the real deal – wouldn’t want them to get saline solution only. That wouldn’t do at all.

      Everyone else should sit back and wait at least 3 months and then maybe 6 more just to make sure they don’t grow two heads.

    • It sounds like Google has decided it has the power of a country.

  18. davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    slide 22 shows inflation adjusted oil prices were over $120 in 2011 2012 2013 and 2014.

    something to keep in mind when looking at today’s prices in the $60s.

  19. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    Some folks take collapse very personal….
    David Moye·Reporter, HuffPost
    Wed, February 24, 2021, 4:23 PM

    A landlord in Albany, New York, is facing kidnapping charges after he allegedly tied up two of his tenants, covered their heads with pillowcases and left them at a snowy cemetery.

    Albany Police arrested 48-year-old Shawn Douglas on Monday afternoon and charged him with second-degree kidnapping in connection with the incident on Sunday morning, according to the Albany Times-Union.

    According to charging documents obtained by HuffPost, Douglas forcibly restrained a 32-year-old male tenant and a 21-year-old female tenant sometime between 1 a.m. and 6 a.m.

    Police said he used zip ties and tape to restrain them before covering their heads with pillowcases and forcing them into his vehicle. Police said Douglas then drove them at gunpoint to a cemetery where he left them in the snow.

    Seems these two freeloaders made this landlord snap. Thankfully, no one was physically harmed.
    Imagine the landlord will need good Lawyers and a sympathetic judge…
    Perhaps he can give these two free rent for life if they don’t press charges…..🤣👍😤

  20. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    Boy, Collapse so near yet so far..But be can still pretend ….we have a big mess to clean up after the BAU party hardy joy ride….so…

    Who will clean up the ‘billion-dollar mess’ of abandoned US oilwells?
    As oil companies go out of business, they are leaving a legacy of abandoned wells that leak huge amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere
    There could be as many as 3.2m abandoned wells in the US, according to a 2018 EPA report, but this is probably an undercount because both federal and state programs for regulating and monitoring non-producing wells are incomplete. There are an estimated 2,500 of them in the Powder River Basin alone.

    So many have been left uncapped because the regulations and bonding requirements, the money that companies pay ahead of time as insurance, for those wells are so minimal that it’s nearly impossible to hold drillers responsible or to pay for cleanup. Some companies simply walk away from wells, meaning they are still liable; when firms go out of business, they are not.
    The penalties for not cleaning up a well are minimal when there’s nothing but a small bond holding a company responsible. “How do you convince operators to comply when there’s no carrot and no stick?” said Frank Rusco, a director in the US Government Accountability Office’s natural resources and environment team.
    That means the profits for drilling go to individual companies while the damages, both environmental and financial, are largely borne by the local community and by state and federal taxpayers. “Unplugged wells devalue property, they’re a mess to work around, it can lead to groundwater pollution, and no one is really tracking it,” Morrison said.
    The thinktank Carbon Tracker, reports it could cost $280bn to reclaim wells, and public bonding data indicates that states have less than 1% of that money in secure bonds.
    Cleanup for an individual well can cost anywhere from $20,000 to $1m. It involves filling it with clay or concrete, covering the surface, replacing topsoil, and removing any pipes or waste like fracking fluid
    The Center for American Progress recently published a plan for a $2bn orphan well cleanup fund, which would both address the pollution and support 14,000 to 24,000 jobs in energy-producing states like Wyoming. And in September, Senator Michael Bennett of Colorado introduced a bill that included those recommendations to create a federal cleanup fund, and increase minimum bonds.

    “I think this is a two-step solution, first would be creating a cleanup fund to address the giant backlog of orphan wells that are scattered across the nation,” said report author Kate Kelly, public lands director at the center. “Then, the heart of the problem is that we have inadequate bonding requirements in places that allow oil and gas companies to walk away and leave taxpayers holding the bag.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/25/us-abandoned-oil-wells-leak-methane-climate-crisis

    Thank you for the new article…just imagine when they “clean up” the nuclear mess…
    Nah, forgetaboutit….
    Time heals old wounds…and Mother Earth 🌎 will carry on without our help…sarcasm

    • Robert Firth says:

      In “Collapse”, published over ten years ago, Jared Diamond warned us about exactly this problem. Of course, nothing has been done.

    • There is also the problem that the companies that would need to pay for the cleanup are pretty much broke, thanks to the long-term low prices.

      I am sure that there is a similar problem with the drilling rigs in the various seas.

  21. Ed says:

    “The system will protect itself, quite possibly using the approach of evicting most humans.”

    When I and other free wheeling commenter say unreserved things I am not alarmed. When reasonable, level headed, Gail says it ….. I am alarmed.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      yet no one knows when.

      keep calm and post on.

      • Ano737 says:

        Hmm. I’m pretty sure collapse has always been 3-5 years away.

        • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

          and today it is also.

          (global, that is. Some countries are already collapsing.)

        • Tsubion says:

          Yes but Fusion was always 20 yrs away and now it’s perpetually 5yrs away. Sooo… by that measure… collapse should be down to about 4 months away from now on +/- a fews weeks according to my old chum at Imperial… Fergie is never wrong.

  22. foglight says:

    Hi Gail, can you comment on the role of the military as it relates to energy consumption, the economy, the starving kids in Yemen? If you’ve already addressed this in a past post, I’ve somehow missed it.

    • This is a chart of US military spending. The headline says, “Defense Spending Is Historically Low.

      https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/dod_chart.jpg

      The spending, as a percentage of GDP, is highest when the use is in a war of some kind:
      World War II – 35.5% in 1945
      Korean War – 11.3% in 1953
      Viet Nam War – 8.6% in 1968
      Latest – 3.1% for 2019

      So military spending is way down. In fact, it has been this low since 2015.

      The world’s problem is not enough demand. Hiring people into the military is one way to create demand. This is part of what happened in World War II; it helped end the Great Depression by giving the economy a reason to raise a lot of debt, put people to work, and keep paying the afterwards with the GI bill.

      Now, the US is pretty close to tapped out for adding more debt. Without a good way to fund the military, I don’t see a chance of the military doing much more than it is doing today, which is not a whole lot. Perhaps, it can help with vaccinations and with keeping refugees from crossing the border. But I expect a “hot war” is not very likely. We are all too tapped out. Doing much to help the poor people in Yemen is out; we are having trouble helping ourselves.

      This article talks about energy use of the US military. It is not very up to date.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_usage_of_the_United_States_military

      The United States Department of Defense is one of the largest single consumers of energy in the world, responsible for 93% of all US government fuel consumption in 2007 (Air Force: 52%; Navy: 33%; Army: 7%. Other DoD: 1%).[1] In FY 2006, the DoD used almost 30,000 gigawatt hours (GWH) of electricity, at a cost of almost $2.2 billion. The DoD’s electricity use would supply enough electricity to power more than 2.3 million average American homes. In electricity consumption, if it were a country, the DoD would rank 58th in the world, using slightly less than Denmark and slightly more than Syria (CIA World Factbook, 2006).[1] The Department of Defense uses 4,600,000,000 US gallons (1.7×1010 L) of fuel annually, an average of 12,600,000 US gallons (48,000,000 L) of fuel per day. A large Army division may use about 6,000 US gallons (23,000 L) per day. According to the 2005 CIA World Factbook, if it were a country, the DoD would rank 34th in the world in average daily oil use, coming in just behind Iraq and just ahead of Sweden

      I don’t think this information is now being published. I expect that military energy consumption is down more than our general energy consumption. This image (if it works) shows that greenhouse gas emissions are down.

      https://i.insider.com/5d012bde6fc9204c712f2572?width=700&format=jpeg&auto=webp

      https://i.insider.com/5d012bde6fc9204c712f2572

      • Nehemiah says:

        3.1% is far more than enough to provide US defense needs in peacetime and with no Cold War. Ever since the fall of the USSR, we have gone a series of Wars of Choice which were and are entirely unnecessary. Trump gave us a break from incessant war mongering for the first time since (ironically) Ronald Ray-gun, but Biden has put the War Party back in the driver’s seat and “here we go again!”

  23. 31 Reasons Why I Won’t Take the Vaccine by Rabbi Chananya Weissman.
    https://gloria.tv/post/tMSBhraMafBJ2XDDZDi2BnURi

  24. Drought In Taiwan Just Turned The Semi Shortage “Crisis” To “Critical”

    Taiwan is suffering the “island’s worst drought in decades”, according to Nikkei. And this is terrible news for semiconductor manufacturers, who are being forced to make cuts on water usage while at the same time desperately trying to scramble and play catch-up with a drought of their own.

    Taiwan is now planning to “further tighten water use in several cities that are home to a cluster of important manufacturers,” including plants in Taoyuan, Taichung, Hsinchu and Miaoli. They are going to be asked to cut consumption by up to 11%. Chiayi and Tainan, where Taiwan Semiconductor is based, will be asked to take a 7% cut.

    All of these cuts come on top of another 7% cut already put into effect last month.

    One chipmaker executive told Nikkei: “All the industries are concerned whether the situation will be alleviated soon. … No one wants to see the worst-case scenario of anyone being forced to dial back production capacity due to water issues.”

    Companies like TSMC use 156,000 tons of water a day. Water quality is “is extremely critical to chip production lines and the processes. … It could affect product performance, so that needs to be handled very carefully,” one insider told Nikkei.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/drought-taiwan-just-turned-semi-shortage-crisis-critical

  25. Israeli researchers say spirulina algae could reduce COVID mortality rate

    A team of scientists from Israel and Iceland have published research showing that an extract of spirulina algae has the potential to reduce the chances of COVID-19 patients developing a serious case of the disease.
    The research, published in the peer-reviewed journal Marine Biotechnology, found that an extract of photosynthetically manipulated Spirulina is 70% effective in inhibiting the release of the cytokine TNF-a, a small signaling protein used by the immune system.
    https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-researchers-say-spirulina-algae-could-stop-covid-19-deaths-660064

  26. Spain’s Galicia to make Covid vaccine compulsory and fine those who refuse it up to €60K

    The regional government of Galicia in northwestern Spain has announced that the Covid-19 vaccine will be compulsory for all its 2.7 million inhabitants, and that fines for those who don’t follow the rules will go from €1,000 to €60,000.
    Galicia’s regional president Alberto Nuñez Feijóo made the announcement at a press conference on Tuesday, but his government has been working on passing the draft law since last November.

    Now that it is set to be approved with a majority in the Galician parliament, the regional government will consider the “unjustified” refusal of anyone who is called up to have the Covid-19 vaccine a “minor offense”, resulting in a penalty of €1,000 to €3,000.
    https://www.thelocal.es/20210223/spains-galicia-to-make-covid-vaccine-compulsory-and-fine-those-who-refuse-it-up-to-60k

    • Glad I don’t live there.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Oh I imagine these sorts of things will be headed our way as well… you just have to make people scared enough to accept them…

        We might like to think the masses will not have it … but on the contrary … they will be applauding any measure that ‘Keeps Them Safe’

        I betcha most Canadians (and CovIDIOTS the world over)… are watching this and thinking – serves him right!

        https://bc.ctvnews.ca/you-don-t-get-to-punch-us-buddy-confrontation-with-unmasked-canadian-tire-customer-under-investigation-1.5320849

      • Xabier says:

        Quite so, Gail!

        The whole of last year, when my relations were locked up in their homes on pain of heavy fines, made me thankful for not having moved back to the mountains in Spain as I had planned: but the UK is also deteriorating so rapidly that it seems there will be little to choose between them in terms of oppressive and irrational governance.

        • JMS says:

          Xabier, the Pyrenees are calling for you! Do you think you can adapt to the life of a clandestine and itinerant shepherd?
          🐐 🙂

          • Xabier says:

            They certainly are calling, JMS, and I wouldn’t mind as I regard shepherds as among the last of the noble. The Agenda 2030 madmen will no doubt ban them from the mountains as part of re-wilding……

            I have a large oil painting which I did about 15 yrs ago,of the view from our family house, and it’s some consolation in what might well be a permanent exile, better than photos.

      • Tsubion says:

        I do.

        It’s an unconstitutional law – yes, Spain has a constitution – and should get thrown out by the supreme or constitutional courts.

        There is no state of emergency and international human rights prohibits forced vaccination or other forms of medication. The constitution also protects citizens from such flagrant abuse of power as does the Nuremberg Code. The right to life and bodily integrity etc etc.

        The entrenched drug and pharma mafia in Galicia are trying to force through a lucrative business opportunity for themselves. Look into the connections between Pharmamar and Inditex and the current president of the autonomous region. They are all heavily invested in the local vaccine manufacturers in Vigo.

        Always follow the money trail.

        Thousands of lawyers are currently working together to press charges against the parmaceutical industry and their politcal and MSM lackeys.

        • Tsubion says:

          Reiner Fuellmich With Other German Lawyers Class Action

          The greatest Nuremberg of all time is on its way

          https://www.ukcolumn.org/community/forums/topic/reiner-fuellmich-with-other-german-lawyers-class-action/

          Right now, a second Nuremberg tribunal that is in preparation, with a class action lawsuit being set up under the aegis of thousands of lawyers worldwide behind the American-German lawyer Reiner Fuellmich, who is prosecuting those responsible for the Covid-19 scandal manipulated by the Davos Forum.

          In this respect, it is worth recalling that Reiner Fuellmich is the lawyer who succeeded in condemning the automobile giant Volkswagen in the case of the tampered catalytic converters. And it is this same lawyer who succeeded in condemning Deutsche Bank as a criminal enterprise.

          According to Reiner Fuellmich, all the frauds committed by German companies are derisory compared to the damage that the Covid-19 crisis has caused and continues to cause. This Covid-19 crisis should be renamed the “Covid-19 Scandal” and all those responsible should be prosecuted for civil damages due to manipulations and falsified test protocols. Therefore, an international network of business lawyers will plead the biggest tort case of all time, the Covid-19 fraud scandal, which has meanwhile turned into the biggest crime against humanity ever committed.

          A Covid-19 commission of enquiry has been set up on the initiative of a group of German lawyers with the aim of bringing an international class action lawsuit using Anglo-Saxon law. Here is the summarized translation of the last communication of Dr. Fuellmich of 15/02/2021

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Look at how many years Brexit has been dragged out…. it will be a simple matter for the Elders to delay a decision on this so that Operation Compassionate Extinction has been completed…

          We can see where this is headed — those who are refusing the Lethal Injection are being coerced — and actually bribed… we’ll let you into concerts and sporting events… just take this tiny jab…. if that doesn’t work then you smash them with fines and endless lockdowns….

          They get to sit in the corner for being naughty … while all their mates play in schoolyard.

          Who says you can’t herd humans! With a little creativity you can get the agree to charge over a 1000 metre cliff by the billions!

  27. WENATCHEE — You can’t see them smiling beneath the masks, but students at Wenatchee and Eastmont high schools are glad to be back in school, even if it’s only part-time.

    Eastmont high students have been back since Jan. 25 and Wenatchee high students since Jan. 26, each on a different hybrid schedule.

    “It is amazing the level of energy in the building, having adults interacting with kids but also the conversations of adults to adults,” said Wenatchee Principal Eric Anderson. “You get kids back in the building, you get a lot of smiles even with masks on. You can tell people are happy.”
    https://www.wenatcheeworld.com/news/coronavirus/back-at-school-pandemic-continues-but-life-goes-on-at-wenatchee-and-eastmont-highs/article_b9d7ae06-762e-11eb-abef-bbb60008f62a.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

  28. Fast Eddy says:

    Some very bad news boo hoo…

    https://youtu.be/UIYl0LZgMtk

  29. Tim M. says:

    The US government will use deadly force to control all energy companies as the collapse accelerates. They will determine who gets to keep the lights on. Try to make your home as independent from the grid as possible, while you still have time. Solar is best, followed by wind. Both are limited, but better than nothing.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      They’ve been doing that for many years… see Iraq, Kuwait etc…

    • You may have to go where there is work or food. You may have to leave your fancy installation behind. Small scale wind does not work. Solar gives you energy in summer, not much in winter, when most places need heat.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        See this is why the Elders are putting us down with the vaccines.

        Imagine being a doomie prepper — you’re feeling good about now … you are READY.

        But 8B people are not … and if the Elders just let it roll… think Hong Kong level riots (literally hundreds of thousands of pissed off people – but now they are HUNGRY).

        They’ll be like a horde of rats … and they’ll find every morsel of food — no matter how remote…

        It won’t be a good look for you doomies — you will be The Jackpot.

        Of course there are the spent fuel ponds. It is really interesting how when you confront people with such facts they just gloss over … nobody likes to hear bad news I guess… so they just dismiss it.

        The mind is a powerful thing

        • Ano737 says:

          ” _you_ doomies”

          That’s a good one! Thanks for the laugh.

        • nikoB says:

          I thought you said being a prepper was stupid. Still got your shipping container full of booze and stuff?

          • Fast Eddy says:

            I’ve also said that when the facts change… I change my mind… if you recall from Chapter 7… Fast Eddy came to his senses and bought a suicide mobile… recently upgraded to an even faster suicide mobile…..

            The container of ‘stuff’ remained at our previous residence when we sold it… we still have plenty of booze for the End Game party though…

      • Ivan says:

        I wanted to test my resilience this week so I shut off my main electric breaker Tuesday morning. I live in SE Minnesota and the nights are currently down around 20F. I have a well insulated (all electric) house with solar PV, battery backup and I get a lot of passive solar gain.

        Overnight it would get down to about 65F and then warm back up to 70+ by the end of the day. I turned the breaker back on again this morning so went 72 hours without the grid. It was actually not too bad at all.

        I realize its not perfect and yes it can be cloudy and yes equipment can fail, but when the world is collapsing, I want to increase my chances of being one of the survivors. Even in Minnesota solar is your best option with some biomass a bonus. I don’t consider myself a prepper, just prepared.

        As the saying goes, if you and I are walking in the woods and we encounter a bear, I don’t have to outrun the bear, I just have to outrun you!

        So when “The system will protect itself, quite possibly using the approach of evicting most humans.”, I just have to survive 6 months and then it will be much less crowded and there will be more resources for the remaining! I don’t intend that in a mean way, it’s just the way it is and I want to provide for my family.

        A storm is brewing, and if you are not prepared when it hits even though we have been told, then you are leaving your fate at odds.

        Cheers!

    • Brian says:

      if there is no electricity I doubt there is any legal system to depend on. You would have to constantly defend against marauders. Life will be much different and harder once collapse begins to set in a little deeper.

    • Jarle says:

      “Solar is best, followed by wind. Both are limited, but better than nothing.”

      Then some part brake and you can’t get a spare …

  30. It will end with depop as always

    The top 1 billion will survive to build a new civ

    The rest won’t

    • I agree that there will be depopulation. It is not clear how many will be left.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      It will end with depop as always

      A random 1 billion will survive to build a new civ

      The rest won’t

    • Minority Of One says:

      If 1 B survive, that means 7 B don’t. If 7 B people die in a short time frame, then diseases that we now think of as rare are likely to make a big comeback. How are the 1 B going to dodge the diseases?

      • Tsubion says:

        Diseases from what?

        Corpses in the water supply?

        Dead things decompose. No more disease.

        Should make for an interesting photo op for the survivors tho. Bones as far as the eye can see picked clean by you and me.

        • Minority Of One says:

          I doubt the masses will die overnight. More likely weeks or months, as malnutrition and hunger kick in. The hungry and malnourished will be more susceptible to any disease going around. And antibiotics might not be available, not in the convenient way they are at the moment.

  31. Fast Eddy says:

    I could quite while I am miles ahead… but what the hell … let’s drill a few slap shots into the top right corner and steam roll a few more dweebs before calling it a day:

    Watch the video at the top of the page … note the comment about how the flu vaccine is only 30% effective… 30% … not 90% .. not 94.5% (round it to 95 right Duncan)… not 76%…

    30%

    Yet… yet … within a matter of months we have vaccine(S) that we are told approach 100% efficacy.

    Some folks… will believe just about anything…. cuz they’re …. a bit dummmm.

    https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patients/

    • Rodster says:

      I truly believe the reason for this is because those individuals get their news source from the main stream media and they actually think the government is telling them the truth. Why would the media or government lie to them? But they are and that’s the problem.

      Isn’t this the case today?

      “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”

      – Joseph Goebbels

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Absolutely! What I cannot understand is that they know the MSM has lied to them many times in the past … e.g. WMD…. yet still – they trust the MSM.

        I think that is a symptom of stupidity… or is it More ON-ism? I must refer to my copy of the DSM-5 on this…

        • JMS says:

          A famous German psycho-logist says the following about that general inclination to refuse to believe the worst:

          “in the big lie there is always a certain force of credibility; because the broad masses of a nation are always more easily corrupted in the deeper strata of their emotional nature than consciously or voluntarily; and thus in the primitive simplicity of their minds they more readily fall victims to the big lie than the small lie, since they themselves often tell small lies in little matters but would be ashamed to resort to large-scale falsehoods. It would never come into their heads to fabricate colossal untruths, and they would not believe that others could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously. Even though the facts which prove this to be so may be brought clearly to their minds, they will still doubt and waver and will continue to think that there may be some other explanation”
          Adolf. H. , Mein Kampf, vol. I, ch. X

          • Mirror on the wall says:

            He was talking about ‘J ews and Marxists’ and their blame of Ludendorff for Germany’s defeat in WWI – it is the ‘stabbed in the back’ account of WWI, that organised leftists broke down the war effort at home and forced Germany into a surrender – and then blamed Ludendorff.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Excellent.

            I actually read this book a year or so back… he makes a fair bit of sense offering explanations for what was to come …but he does at one point digress and turns into a raging frothing angry man… but who can blame him when his country has been destroyed and a proud people driven to the edge of starvation.

            I have also read The Elders of Zion. They should be sold as a set… (tee f%%@ hee)

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        Ironic, there does not seem to be a source for that quote.

      • Nehemiah says:

        @Rodster, The quote is fake:

        https://www.jstor.org/stable/42579187 [full article on sci-hub]

        Plausible Quotations and Reverse Credibility

        The above quotation appears on a rapidly growing number of internet pages. In 2002, it was on about a dozen pages; by mid-2008, it was 14,000. In mid-October 2009, the total was 47,900; on April 1, 2011, it reached 333,000. By December 1, 2011, the total surpassed 500,000. If one allows for partial quotations or minor variations, the figures are even higher. Forty thousand pages attribute it to “Joseph M. Goebbels.” “M” was not his middle initial.

        As best as we can determine, Goebbels never said it. Proving a negative is impossible, but we have read a wide range of Goebbels’s writings and speeches without finding the quotation.1 No one who cites it online or in available printed sources – including academic works – provides a source. The quotation also appears on over 400 Internet sites in German, sometimes with the note “retranslated from English,” and sometimes with the wrong middle initial.2 No German Internet page or book that we can find provides a source
        SNIP

    • This article seems to be from 2018. The flu s different from COVID.

    • Jarle says:

      “Yet… yet … within a matter of months we have vaccine(S) that we are told approach 100% efficacy.”

      That is of course good old BS, the proper stuff, not a pale modern copy.

  32. Nonplused says:

    I made a lot of money in the 2000’s after reading a Scientific American article titled “The End of Cheap Oil” in 1999. However, even though that article was fairly accurate in its’ predictions, it failed to comment sufficiently on what the future ramifications would be after peak cheap oil and just assumed business as usual with higher prices. After considering all of the points Gail goes over above I would have made a lot of different decisions.

    It is also kind of sad thinking about these things. I have children, but I do not discuss such things with them, not even the adult ones. Who wants to tell your kids “Guess what? You’re doomed.”

    • Fast Eddy says:

      I can’t imagine the anguish I would feel right now if I had children…. or if I had not visited nearly 50 countries since The Big Realization in 2009 or so…

      As it is I find myself putting off the most mundane of tasks.. e.g. I am supposed to separate business related receipts from personal expenses for the accountant… I have been chucking the whole lot in a box assuming I’ll not get audited before the collapse hits…

      I am still buying green avocados though… it’s a risk I’ll take because the ripe ones have so frequently been roughly fingered by the avo perves.

    • It is really difficult to say anything, when it is hard to do much of anything. I pretty much take that path as well.

      Admittedly, there will be a few people who will want to start growing their own food and try to outsmart the system. But, for most people, that is simply impractical. Most people cannot afford to buy a home, pay taxes on a home, and start from scratch on what they think they will do later. You also need a connected system to be part of in the post collapse world.

      • Xabier says:

        A kitchen garden certainly isn’t going to shield one from the Apocalypse, but at least it is absorbing and positive-feeling.

        Growing roses or any merely decorative plant might amount to as much, I suppose, in terms of long-term survival. Beauty is itself good for health.

        The most important thing is to avoid despair, leaving no room for it by pursuing purposeful activity.

      • Nehemiah says:

        Yes, you would need to be part of a community with a diversity of skills, including many skills that have lapsed during the last hundred years.

    • Xabier says:

      Only in religious/esoteric circles have people ever made a habit of sitting around and talking about death – and then of course it is not seen as an end, but a stage, the way to Heaven or Hell, the route to further incarnations or planes of existence.

      One could talk to one’s family about very tough, dangerous, times coming up, though. More inspiring to action than focusing on death (and, before FE says it, just don’t mention the fuel ponds!)

      But on the whole, people will not listen to what they don’t want to hear, even if it is a not too frightening message that has been toned down somewhat.

  33. Fast Eddy says:

    And there’s MORE

    Dr Mike Yeadon’s Open Letter Regarding SARS-COV-2 Vaccine

    It is increasingly difficult to retrieve a copy of Dr Mike Yeadon’s, (ex VP of Pfizer), open letter to Matt Hancock regarding the new SARS-COV-2 vaccine, so, along with his Bio, I am posting it on this blog. In it, he explicitly states that he is not against vaccinations in general – his concern is with the lack of data regarding the long-term effects of any vaccination developed in less than a year. Imperative reading.

    Bio:

    Dr. Michael Yeadon is an Allergy & Respiratory Therapeutic Area expert with 23 years in the pharmaceutical industry. He trained as a biochemist and pharmacologist, obtaining his PhD from the University of Surrey (UK) in 1988.

    Dr. Yeadon then worked at the Wellcome Research Labs with Salvador Moncada with a research focus on airway hyper-responsiveness and effects of pollutants including ozone and working in drug discovery of 5-LO, COX, PAF, NO and lung inflammation. With colleagues, he was the first to detect exhaled NO in animals and later to induce NOS in lung via allergic triggers.

    Joining Pfizer in 1995, he was responsible for the growth and portfolio delivery of the Allergy & Respiratory pipeline within the company. He was responsible for target selection and the progress into humans of new molecules, leading teams of up to 200 staff across all disciplines and won an Achievement Award for productivity in 2008.

    Under his leadership the research unit invented oral and inhaled NCEs which delivered multiple positive clinical proofs of concept in asthma, allergic rhinitis and COPD. He led productive collaborations such as with Rigel Pharmaceuticals (SYK inhibitors) and was involved in the licensing of Spiriva and acquisition of the Meridica (inhaler device) company.

    Dr. Yeadon has published over 40 original research articles and now consults and partners with a number of biotechnology companies. Before working with Apellis, Dr. Yeadon was VP and Chief Scientific Officer (Allergy & Respiratory Research) with Pfizer.

    Dear Mr Hancock,

    I have a degree in Biochemistry & Toxicology & a research based PhD in pharmacology. I have spent 32years working in pharmaceutical R&D, mostly in new medicines for disorders of lung & skin.

    I was a VP at Pfizer & CEO of a biotech I founded (Ziarco – acquired by Novartis). I’m knowledgeable about new medicine R&D. I have read the consultation document. I’ve rarely been as shocked & upset.

    All vaccines against the SARS-COV-2 virus are by definition novel. No candidate vaccine has been in development for more than a few months. If any such vaccine is approved for use under any circumstances that are not EXPLICITLY experimental, I believe that recipients are being misled to a criminal extent.

    This is because there are precisely zero human volunteers for whom there could possibly be more than a few months past-dose safety information.

    My concern does not arise because I have negative views about vaccines (I don’t). Instead, it’s the very principle that politicians seem ready to waive that new medical interventions at this, incomplete state of development- should not be made available to subjects on anything other than an explicitly experimental basis.

    That’s my concern.

    And the reason for that concern is that it is not known what the safety profile will be, six months or a year or longer after dosing. You have literally no data on this & neither does anyone else. It isn’t that I’m saying that unacceptable adverse effects will emerge after longer intervals after dosing.

    No: it is that you have no idea what will happen yet, despite this, you’ll be creating the impression that you do. Several of the vaccine candidates utilise novel technology which have not previously been used to create vaccines.

    There is therefore no long term safety data which can be pointed to in support of the notion that it’s reasonable to expedite development & to waive absent safety information on this occasion. I am suspicious of the motives of those proposing expedited use in the wider human population.

    We now understand who is at particularly elevated risk of morbidity & mortality from acquiring this virus. Volunteers from these groups only should be provided detailed information about risk / benefit, including the sole point I make here.

    Only if informed consent is given should any EXPERIMENTAL vaccine be used. I don’t trust you. You’ve not been straightforward & have behaved appallingly throughout this crisis. You’re still doing it now, misleading about infection risk from young children. Why should I believe you in relation to experimental vaccines?

    Dr Michael Yeadon

    An ADMINISTRATIVE STAY OF ACTION has been filed by Dr Mike Yeadon with the Department of Health and Human Services and Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the new Pfizer COVID vaccine that has been submitted for “emergency use authorization” (EUA).

    https://vaccineimpact.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2020/11/Stay-Pfizer-vaccine-phase-3-trial.pdf

    • Mrs S says:

      This newly published paper suggests that the covid injection could cause prion disease. It’s horrifying. And the thing is that there’s no data. We just don’t know.

      “The folding of TDP-43 and FUS into their pathologic prion confirmations is known to cause ALS, front temporal lobar degeneration, Alzheimer’s disease and other neurological degenerative diseases. The enclosed finding as well as additional potential risks leads the author to believe that regulatory approval of the RNA based vaccines for SARS-CoV-2 was premature and that the vaccine may cause much more harm than benefit.”

      https://www.scivisionpub.com/pdfs/covid19-rna-based-vaccines-and-the-risk-of-prion-disease-1503.pdf

      • The article does present a worrying story. I expect that it would be better received if it didn’t wander into talking about Bill Gates and vaccines possibly being bioweapons.

    • Xabier says:

      Thanks, good to read: Dr Yeadon has been mocked, censored and almost completely wiped from the record.

      When watching a video he made early last year, his intelligence and integrity were crystal clear, and his experience and qualifications are unimpeachable. His arguments are equally solid.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        If you search – mike yeadon legal action vaccine — you get endless results debunking and ridiculing him… it is near impossible to find info on his court case…

        Of course the CovIDIOTS will not realize that is yet another organized hit on another expert to make sure the Big Lie is not punctured.

        I have trie (and failed) for years to treat and cure the masses of their stooopidity and MORE on ism…. but now their shortcomings will cure them permanently …

        I might argue that I am actually the stooopid one because I won’t take the lethal injection (well… if I get fined 60,000 Euros over and over again … I might consider it … but as a matter of principle… I’ll know back half a bottle of this Nikka Taketsuru ‘Pure Malt’ (best whisky on the planet? – and forever out of stock…) — while the engine warms up … then we’ll see what 200mph feels like around a sharp corner….

  34. Fast Eddy says:

    Thanks for the new article… I’ll definitely read it shortly … but first a public service message for anyone who has taken or is planning to take The Vaccine (Duncan… maybe take a Xanax before you read the full paper)

    Synthetic mRNA Covid vaccines: A Risk-Benefit Analysis

    With a “vaccine” based on untested technology, and safety trials still ongoing, is it safe to take the shot? And does it even work? And does a disease with an IFR of 0.2% even justify that risk?

    Many doctors and researchers around the world have promulgated concerns about the well-documented phenomena referred to as Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE) seen in some viruses such as coronaviruses.

    In previous SARS, MERS, Dengue fever and RSV virus vaccine trials the exposure of wild viruses to vaccine recipients resulted in severe disease, cytokine storms, and deaths in some animal and human trials. The phenomenon of ADE did not present initially in vaccine recipients, rather it presented after vaccine recipients were exposed to wild viruses.

    This is the reason we do not have a vaccine for the common cold, MERS and SARS which is 78% homologous with SarsCov2 (based on analysis of the digital genome). Immunology Professor Dolores Cahill warned that this disease enhancement may cause many vaccine recipients to die months or years down the road. Esteemed German infectious disease specialist, Dr Sucharit Bhakdi opined:

    https://off-guardian.org/2021/02/22/synthetic-mrna-covid-vaccines-a-risk-benefit-analysis/

  35. Great article Gail! It’s looking increasingly likely fthat the leak from the Liberal Party of Canada Fasty Eddy keeps posting is legit. Here is the latest out of Canada:

    “Transitioning of individuals into the universal basic income program. Expected mid Q2 2021”

    https://www.ubiworks.ca/basicincomebill

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Excellent – ‘Compassionate Extinction’ is being executed superbly….

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “Why is Bill C-273 important?
      It’s step one for the Canadian government to create a national Basic Income by answering important questions on how to best design and implement it across Canada.

      What would Bill C-273 do?
      Bill C-273 requires Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland to create a national strategy for a Guaranteed Basic Income, including potential partnerships with provinces to determine how best to structure and implement a Basic Income.

      The bill includes support for dedicated Basic Income research into: how it would affect the efficiency of government; how it could support entrepreneurship, job creation, and civic action in a new economy; and how it would impact Canadians and our communities.”

      wow. “research”.

      all talk and no action.

      this is a mid Q2 2021 fantasy.

  36. ElbowWilham says:

    following….

  37. Bei Dawei says:

    “In fact, hunger is an increasing problem in poor countries around the world.”

    Rich countries too. My Japanese colleague assures me that hunger is a problem in Japan, for example.

    I say this every time, but: Rev. 18 is not about Babylon, it is about “Babylon” (as the Rastas and Rainbow People say–they mean the world around us). It’s a symbol borrowed from the Old Testament, and applied to the Roman Empire (its most likely meaning).

    • It makes absolutely no difference.

      The Roman Empire was later collapsing. The image from the earlier collapse was being used.

      No one, anywhere, says that there was lots of demand in the middle of collapse.

      • Bei Dawei says:

        It’s a prophecy. The Roman empire wasn’t collapsing in the late 1st / early 2nd century AD. The author of the Revelation seems to be imagining that it would.

        • The writer had the model of what happened in Babylon, however. That was the point.

        • Mirror on the wall says:

          ‘It’s a prophecy.’

          It was a reaffirmation of an imminent apocalypse that never came to pass. It was written about 95 AD.

          > 1 The Revelation of Jesus Christ, which God gave unto him, to shew unto his servants things which must shortly come to pass; and he sent and signified it by his angel unto his servant John. – Rev 1.

          Christians had been anticipating the end of the world since the days of Jesus, about 33 AD.

          > 34 Verily I say unto you, This generation shall not pass, till all these things be fulfilled. – Mt 24.

          Some form/s of the religion survived nevertheless and ‘the end’ is largely forgotten about as some distant event of uncertain time.

          J Wit’s take the ‘prophecies’ in a ‘spiritual sense’ and they have called the date of the end three times without joy. The sad fact for them is that it was due long, long ago and it never happened.

          Christians sometimes say that J ews missed ‘the train’, with Jesus, and they are still ‘waiting on the platform’ for a messiah 2000 years after the train ‘left the station’ – well the failure of the ‘prophecies’ suggests rather that ‘train’ simply never came.

          Obviously that is not a popular interpretation with some Christians but I have spoken to clergy who consider it to be a reasonable interpretation, and they consider the ‘local trappings’ of the literature, the popular expectations of the day, to be inessential to the religion.

          They tend to be more concerned with passages like ‘the kingdom of God is within you’ than with ‘Jesus will come in the clouds with a sword.’ Often they will say that all religions contain truth but none of them are entirely free of local trappings, at least in the primitive literatures.

          Arguably the Quakers were a few centuries ahead of their time with their ‘universalism’. The mainstream churches have largely ‘caught up’ with them. And of course, current socio-economic/ demographic trends favour that perspective. The pope is basically a Quaker these days.

          • Nehemiah says:

            “It was written about 95 AD.”– by pious tradition tracing to St. Irenaeus, Bishop of Lyons, in the latter half of the 2nd century. Irenaeus had heard the Apostle preach in Ephesus, but he was just a child then. However, it was disputed in the ante-Nicene era whether the author of Revelation was really John the Apostle, or a different John. We cannot rule out the theory that it was written circa AD 67, on the eve of the first Jewish rebellion against the Romans and the destruction of the second temple.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              You think that everyone does not know that? It hardly matters. If I wanted a fuller discussion of the date then I would have given one. Try not to be one of those annoying people who think that they are oh so clever yet fail to discern how silly and annoying they can be.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      Those themes in reggae originated with Yabby You who was a seminal artist and is worth checking out.

      ‘Babylon’ in England is a metaphor for England itself and for the fall of the British Empire / the state and its armed wings / and for capitalism as ‘the city of the merchants’. There has long been a Jamaican community in London and they tend to be historically conscious.

      The fall of Babylon also works as a figure of Jamaican independence in 1962 and the celebratory tone of this song may allude to that. ‘Babylon has gone down.’ That event in turn functions as a figure that feeds back into the same imagery.

      Gail is quite right that central figure is the fall of Babylon in 6 c. BC. In Rev. it is an allegory of Jesus overcoming the world and its ways through his violent death for ‘sins’ – as well as of the end times and the final restoration of the ‘kingdom of God’.

      • Ano737 says:

        That’s another great example of collapse always being imminent. The UK seems very far past its due date, but even with the Brexit and Covid mess combined, the pound is still standing and, amazingly enough, even the FTSE.

        IC is much more resilient than it’s given credit for. Of course, it will end someday. You know – in 3 to 5 years.

        • Mirror on the wall says:

          3 to 5 years sounds about right for the UK if the polls in Scotland are anything to go by. : )

          Of course collapse of IC will not happen… until it does.

    • How can it be? They have “Minister of Loneliness”, so there definitely is a minister of hunger, isn’t it?

      Japan Appoints “Minister Of Loneliness” After Disturbing Rise In ‘Social Distancing Era’ Suicides

      https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/japan-appoints-minister-loneliness-after-disturbing-rise-social-distancing-era-suicides

      This all sounds increasingly orwellian…

  38. TDR says:

    There’s no underlying plan. Humankind will survive or not, and it certainly is working overtime in favor of not.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      yes, there is no plan.

      (there might be some lofty rhetoric about some GR plan this or that, but it’s all talk with very little to back it up with any real action.)

  39. notabilia says:

    That’s a great comic note at the end: “perhaps there is a underlying plan that we are unaware of.”
    It’ll no doubt be behind paywall, though, and have all sorts of malware embedded in it.

  40. China has built up an overcapacity with modern, large scale refineries, sucking up increasing crude oil imports. oil other countries don’t use because of a Covid19 induced recession. The question here is: has the Chinese government not seen peak oil coming?

    The refinery surplus is dumped in product exports, killing aging, less efficient and smaller refineries elsewhere, for example Australia

    15/2/2021
    Exxon-Mobil’s refinery closure in Australia: peak oil context
    https://crudeoilpeak.info/exxon-mobils-refinery-closure-in-australia-peak-oil-context

    14/11/2020
    Australia’s BP Kwinana refinery closure: peak oil context
    https://crudeoilpeak.info/australias-bp-kwinana-refinery-closure-peak-oil-context

    It’s part of a collapse in the oil industry

    • It is the most efficient refineries that win. Also, the countries that can best supply their own needs.

      The chart showing Japan’s oil imports over time is just plain sad. No wonder their economy is doing miserably.

  41. Rodster says:

    The semiconducter supply chains are breaking down. Video graphics card makers can’t supply the needed products to their customers and the crypto miners are willing to pay well over MSRP for those computer parts. So customers who typically buy those parts to play videogames are left disappointed. Sony, Microsoft have also not been able to meet demand for their videogame consoles such as the Playstation 5 and the new Xbox consoles. Every time retailers receive a fresh allotment, they sellout within minutes if not seconds.

    All the attention has turned to AMD and other electronic component suppliers. Their response has been, demand has OUTSTRIPPED supply. Auto makers are also having difficulty sourcing computer parts and components for their vehicles.

    Those suppliers and manufactures are blaming the scamdemic for these problems.

    • Xabier says:

      Sounds as though it could be a bit awkward for the Digital Prison……and time to stock up on manufactured goods of any kind.

      And brandy.

      • Mrs S says:

        My hopes are pinned on things collapsing enough for our techno slavery to become unfeasible.

        Meanwhile I keep thinking I should buy a few new pairs of jeans. Don’t want to face the collapse with holes in my knees.

        • Jarle says:

          “Meanwhile I keep thinking I should buy a few new pairs of jeans. Don’t want to face the collapse with holes in my knees.”

          Sure about that? Ragged clothes and a weapon in hand will be high fashion when the crash comes …

  42. Marco says:

    If stock market crash…how much time left?

    • Rodster says:

      It can go on until they central banks and financiers run out of tricks and I would wager they probably have more tricks up their sleeves. This already has been going on since 2008. So we are in year 13 of the current madness.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I will reiterate and slightly amend my prediction – the stock market will reach a new high … when people are dying in the streets from the effects of having taken a Covid vaccine… and the global economy is collapsing.

        Stay tuned. I suspect the collapse will not be televised – but you will be able to watch it live outside your front door.

        If you are one of the Great Unvaxxed… I recommend circulating amongst the dying CovIDIOTS… pulling them up out of their vomit and snot by the hair … looking them in the eyes… and solemnly saying ‘I told you’…. drop them back in the pool of mucus and move on to the next one.

        What Great Fun!!!

        What does Duncan think of my comment?

        Probably still in a state of shock after reading this …

        https://off-guardian.org/2021/02/22/synthetic-mrna-covid-vaccines-a-risk-benefit-analysis/

    • I see that the US, Japanese, and Hong Kong stock markets were all down sharply today. It does seem like what can’t go one forever, won’t, but we really don’t know.

  43. Marco says:

    Every day can be the last

    • Rodster says:

      Yes, that applies to life in general even without a collapse.

    • We need to take advantage of every day that we have. I saw the first daffodils of spring, when I was out walking today. Today is the 25th of February.

      I checked my old photos, because I sometimes take pictures of the first daffodils. I see in 2019, the first daffodil I took a photo of was on February 3rd. So, this year is three weeks later.

      They are pretty whenever they arrive.

  44. There is not only peak oil in China 2015 but in all of Asia which is supposed to be the center of the so-called Asian Century

    10/9/2020
    Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 4)
    https://crudeoilpeak.info/peak-oil-in-asia-update-june-2020-part-4

    17/8/2020
    Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 3)
    https://crudeoilpeak.info/peak-oil-in-asia-update-june-2020-part-3

    15/7/2020
    Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 2)
    https://crudeoilpeak.info/peak-oil-in-asia-update-june-2020-part-2

    30/6/2020
    Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 1)
    https://crudeoilpeak.info/peak-oil-in-asia-update-june-2020-part-1

    • Thanks, Matt, for all of the nice charts.

      You probably have read headlines such as this: New Zealand Could Lose its Final Refinery, dated February 17, 2021.

      Refining NZ of New Zealand was recently reported in saying that its Marsden Point Refinery in Northland is under consideration for conversion into an import terminal by 2022. This would leave the country with no known refining capacity.

      This potential conversion is part of the company’s plans for a larger and more diverse energy hub onsite with an LNG terminal and battery storage capacity. If built, the import terminal would begin in 2022 with a capacity for approximately 50,000 barrels per day, which is far less than half of the Marsden Point refinery’s capacity for 135,000 barrels per day. Refining NZ stressed that no final decision has been made around this conversion.

      What would happen to New Zealand with this much less oil? Would any planes land there, any more?

      • Xabier says:

        Oh well, NZ looks like a graveyard as nice as any one could find -if they are allowed out of their homes to enjoy it in the last days, and not locked in…….

        • Robert Firth says:

          New Zealand may become a graveyard, but Aotearoa will revive as a sustainable civilisation.

      • Curt Kurschus says:

        We have a government which is very firmly anti fossil fuels (especially oil) and very firmly pro “renewables”. Wind, solar, and hydrogen are all being touted as the way forward. “Emergency” and “urgency” are words commonly used by the government in relation to the stated need to switch from fossil fuels to “renewables” for the sake of cutting our greenhouse gas emissions.

  45. Marco says:

    Amazing

  46. Kevin B. says:

    Excellent post as always, thank you Gail. I do have one comment about EROEI, I think recent work by Charles Hall and others to come up with a consistent methodology for comparing EROEI includes most of the factors that make one source more complex than another. After accounting for intermittency, the “buffered” EROEI of wind is around 1:4 and coal is around 1:30. Those are wildly disparate outcomes, and I think the reasons can be summarized as “complexity”.

    • I will have to admit that I haven’t read too many of the new EROEI articles.

      What tends to happen is that there are a few researchers saying, “Let’s see how to do this right.” They find lower values, but not necessarily ones that would disqualify wind/solar from being substitutes for fossil fuels.

      At the same time, there are also a lot of meta-study compilations of smaller studies evaluating, for example, a single type of wind turbine. The ones that get used are the meta-studies, which tend to have narrow boundaries, and thus higher EROEIs.

      I found one called, “Trends in Scientific Literature on Energy Return Ratio of Renewable Energy Sources for Supporting Policy Makers” by Roberto Leonardo Rana et al, dated March 2020.

      This article says in the text, “To measure the energy efficiency of a fuel, EROEI should be a ratio of at least up to 5:1 for non-renewable energy sources and 3:1 for renewable sources (Murphy et al. 2011).” Thus, an energy source “passes” if it is higher than 3:1 for renewable energy.

      The article gives the following EROEI ratios:

      Onshore wind 34 to 58
      Offshore wind 16.7 to 17.7
      Solar Photovoltaic 5.0 to 34

      All of them “pass” easily. But in practice, they have a lot of problems because they do not provide the kinds of energy needed, when it is needed. They can be added to the grid in small quantities, if the pricing problems can be handled. But they don’t give electricity that society can be run on.

      • Kevin B. says:

        You reference a much more recent paper, I’ll look it up when I get a chance but those numbers look suspicious to me. EROI calculations can vary drastically depending on where you draw the boundary, but as long as they do it consistently for all energy sources I think there is at least a basis for comparison. I tend to refer to this graph when comparing wind and solar to fossil fuels since it attempts to take intermittency into account. (Weisbach, 2013).

        http://climatechangefork.blog.brooklyn.edu/files/2014/11/Buffered-Unbuffered-EROI.jpg

        • The Weissbach article is fairly different from 99% of the EROEI articles I have seen. People who are pushing renewables aren’t looking at it.

          The article I referenced (it is a PDF that downloads by itself, free) shows far more typical values.

          And the idea that above a ratio of 3:1 is “good enough” for renewables is well embedded into the view of many renewable advocates. Biofuels, such as ethanol, often come out below 3:1.

  47. Steve Bull says:

    Great read as always, Gail.

    This, in particular, caught my attention: “New financial techniques can be developed to hide problems.”

    It’s always interesting to see the various economic narratives shift, especially as goal posts are moved. Temporary Quantitative Easing changes names then morphs into money/credit expansion that seems to be going to ‘Infinity and Beyond’.

    While there are plenty of hypotheses as to what the-powers-that-be will do next or continue, I am certain there will be ‘new financial techniques’ at every turn (or ones that have been tried before but be given a new name).

    With currency/money being a claim on future energy, it will be very, very interesting to see how this all plays out especially for the masses who have little access to ‘money’ in the first place, and what problems will be hidden and what new ones will emerge.

    • The new “in thing” seems to be digital currencies. I can’t imagine that they will be like bitcoin, with lots of electricity use backing them. They will simply be some money that a particular conjures conjures out of thin air. My question is, “What other country would want this currency?”

      Depending on how it is divided up, it could end up being quite a bit like ration cards. If you have this digital currency, you and everyone else will be able to buy what little food is available. There will probably be a lot of used furniture and used clothing available, but not much new. Perhaps we will all forget about paying rent and mortgage payments.

      • RICHARD Marleau says:

        I tend to think along the lines of ration tokens too for government issues crypto tokens.

      • Nehemiah says:

        Digital currency needs electricity, the internet, server farms, power grids, microchips, a vast interconnected apparatus of complexity. Not sustainable, and there is a non-trivial risk that one of these days the grid may fail so completely that physical currency is the only thing left. Whether it will be trusted when there is no government backing it with gold or silver is another question.

        • Kowalainen says:

          Cant eat paper money, cant eat gold.

          However, those pesky and complex microchips for sure is an essential part in keeping you well nourished and warm (together with cheap energy and heavy machinery).

          But, hey, you could try subsistence farming devoid of any fancy technological gizmo for a couple of years and then report back. Yup, that of course excludes any cars, power tools, all machinery, hospitals and regular trips to the hardware store and supermarket.

          Thus the only true currency is measured in energy and information processing capability.

          It is the transformation from tangibles to intangibles. People care more about video games, streaming media, tweets and Facebook likes than “stuff” these days. The covid shenanigans kicked that into high gear. Go check nasdaq how the tech stocks have performed against S&P/Dow.

          The most ironical thing in the world is luddites furiously typing away on smartphones and computers. The next best thing is the same internet connected muppets hating on the MIC. Right, let’s consider which agency was “behind” the Internet.

          Triple the MIC budget for space warfare. Yes, MOAR rocketry. 🤘😎

  48. doomphd says:

    Thanks Gail, for this post. Today is my birthday, so I will consider it a present, although the subject matter is disturbing. I’m sure it will generate a lot of discussion.

    • There is a video available too, but I haven’t done anything with it yet.

      This is a link to the You Tube video. I also asked for an MP4 version, which I have shared with the people in China, because You Tube is blocked there. I should upload the MP4 to OFW, as backup.

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