Why Collapse Occurs; Why It May Not Be Far Away

Collapse is a frightening subject. The question of why collapse occurs is something I have pieced together over many years of study from a number of different sources, which I will attempt to explain in this post.

Collapse doesn’t happen instantaneously; it happens many years after an economy first begins outgrowing its resource base. In fact, the resource base likely declines at the same time from multiple causes, such as soil erosion, deforestation and oil depletion. Before collapse occurs, there seem to be warning signs, including:

  • Too much wage disparity
  • Riots and protests by people unhappy with low wages
  • Prices of commodities that are too low for producers that need to recover their costs of production and governments that require tax revenue to fund programs for their citizens
  • An overstretched financial system; conditions ripe for debt defaults
  • Susceptibility to epidemics

Many people have the misimpression that our most important problem will be “running out” of oil. Because of this, they believe that oil prices will rise high if the system is reaching its limits. Since oil prices are not very high, they assume that the problem is far away. Once a person understands what the real issue is, it is (unfortunately) relatively easy to see that the current economy seems to be quite close to collapse.

In this post, I provide images from a recent presentation I gave, together with some comments. A video of the presentation is available on the Uncomfortable Knowledge Hub, here. A PDF of the presentation can be downloaded here:

Slide 1
Slide 2
Slide 3
Slide 4

In some ways, a self-organizing system is analogous to a dome that might be built with a child’s toy building set (Slide 4). New layers of businesses and consumers are always being added, as are new regulations, more or less on top of the prior structure. At the same time, old consumers are dying off and products that are no longer needed are being discontinued. This happens without central direction from anyone. Entrepreneurs see the need for new products and try to satisfy them. Consumers decide on what to buy, based upon what their spendable income is and what their needs are.

Slide 5

Resources of many kinds are needed for an economy. Harnessing energy of many types is especially important. Early economies burned biomass and used the labor of animals. In recent years, we have added other types of energy, such as fossil fuels and electricity, to supplement our own human energy. Without supplemental energy of various kinds, we would be very limited in the kinds of goods and services that could be produced. Our farming would be limited to digging in the ground with a stick, for example.

The fact that there is almost an equivalence between employees and consumers is very important. If the wages of consumers are high, relative to the prices of the goods and services available, then consumers are able to buy many of those goods and services. As a result, citizens tend to be happy. But if there are too many low paid workers, or people without work at all, consumers are likely to be unhappy because they cannot afford the basic necessities of life.

Slide 6

The problem civilizations are facing is a two-sided problem: (1) Growing population and (2) Resources that often degrade or deplete. As a result, the amount of resources per person falls. If this were carried to the limit, all of us would starve.

Slide 7

As resources deplete and population grows, local leaders can see that problems are on the horizon. At first, adding technology, such as a new dam to provide water to make farms more productive, helps. As more and more technology and other complexity is added, there is less and less “bang for the buck.” We can easily see this in the healthcare field. Early antibiotics had a very big payback; recent medical innovations that help a group of 500 or 1000 people with a particular rare disease can be expected to have a much smaller payback.

A second issue with added complexity is that it increasingly leads to a society of the very wealthy plus many very low paid workers. Joseph Tainter identified the combination of these two issues as leading to collapse in his book, The Collapse of Complex Societies.

Slide 8

Françios Roddier is an astrophysicist who writes primarily in French. His book Thermodynamique de l’évolution was published in 2012; it is now available in English as well.

The issue of starving people in Yemen is an issue today. In fact, hunger is an increasing problem in poor countries around the world. The world tourism industry is dead; the industry of making fancy clothing for people in rich countries is greatly reduced. People who formerly made a living in these industries in poor countries increasingly find it difficult to earn an adequate living with other available jobs. Rich countries tend to have better safety nets when there are widespread reductions in job-availability.

Slide 9

Businesses often make long lasting goods such as machines to be used in factories or automobiles to be used by consumers. Governments often make long-lasting goods such as paved roads and school buildings. When making these goods, they take some combination of commodities, built machinery, and human labor to make goods and services that people will use for many years into the future. The future value of these goods is hoped to be significantly greater than the value of the inputs used to create these goods and services.

There are at least three reasons that time-shifting devices are needed:

  1. Workers need to be paid as these goods are made.
  2. Businesses need to build factories in advance.
  3. Businesses, governments and individuals are all likely to find the future payments more manageable, even with interest added, than they are as a single payment upfront.

I don’t mention the issue in Slide 9, but once time-shifting devices are created, they become very easy to manipulate. For example, no one knows precisely what the future value of a particular investment will be. Governments, especially, are prone to make investments in unneeded infrastructure, simply to provide jobs for people. We also know that there are diminishing returns to added technology, but stocks of technology companies tend to be valued as if complexity will save the world. Third, interest rate manipulations (lower!) and the offering of debt to those who seem unlikely to be able ever to repay the debt can be used to make the economy of a country appear to be in better shape than it really is. Many of us remember the collapse of the US subprime housing debt bubble in 2008.

Slide 10

The purpose of a financial system is to allocate goods and services. High wages allocate a larger share of the output of an economy to a particular person than low wages. Appreciation in asset values (such as prices of shares of stock, or value of a home or piece of land) also act to increase the share of the goods and services produced by the economy to an individual. Payment of interest, dividends and rents are other ways of allocating goods and services that the economy makes. Governments can print money, but they cannot print goods and services!

As the economy gets more complex, the non-elite workers increasingly get left out of the distribution of goods and services. For one thing (not mentioned on Slide 10), as the economy becomes more complex, an increasing share of the goods and services produced by the economy need to go into making all of the intermediate goods that make that industrial economy work. Intermediate goods would include factories, semi-trucks, hydroelectric dams, oil pipelines and other goods and services that don’t directly benefit an individual consumer. They are needed to make the overall system work.

As the economy gets bigger and more complex, the non-elite workers increasingly find themselves left out. Besides losing an increasing part of the output of the intermediate goods and services mentioned in the prior paragraph, there are other pieces that take slices of the total output of goods and services:

  • High paid workers take their quite-large slices of the total output. These individuals tend to be the ones who get the benefit of asset appreciation, as well.
  • Pension programs and other programs to help the elderly and unemployed take a cut.
  • Health insurance costs, in the US at least, tend to be very high, relative to wages, for lower-paid workers.
  • The work of some employees can be replaced by low-paid overseas employees or by robots. If they are to keep their jobs, their wages need to be suitably low to compete.

With all of these issues, the workers at the bottom of the employment hierarchy increasingly get left out of the distribution of goods and services made by the economy.

Slide 11

We know some of the kinds of things that happen when economies are close to collapse from the writings of researchers such as Peter Turchin, lead author of Secular Cycles, and Joseph Tainter, mentioned earlier. One approach is for governments to try to work around the resource problem by starting wars with other economies whose resources they might gain. Probably a more likely outcome is that these low-resource-per-capita economies become vulnerable to attack by other economies because of their weakened condition. In any event, more conflict is likely as resource limits hit.

If the low incomes of non-elite workers persist, many bad outcomes can be expected. Local riots can be expected as citizens protest their low wages or pensions. Governments are likely to find that they cannot collect enough taxes. Governments will also find that they must cut back on programs, or (in today’s world) their currencies will sink relative to currencies of other countries. Intergovernmental organizations may fail for lack of funding, or governments may be overthrown by unhappy citizens.

Debt defaults can be expected. Governments have a long history of defaulting on their debts when conditions were bad according to Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff in This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.

It becomes very easy for epidemics to take hold because of the poor eating habits and the close living quarters of non-elite workers.

With respect to inflation-adjusted commodity prices, it is logical that they would stay low because a large share of the population would be impoverished and thus not able to afford very many of these commodities. A person would expect gluts of commodities, as occurred during the Great Depression in the 1930s in the United States because many farmers and farm-hands had been displaced by modern farming equipment. We also find that the book of Revelation from the Bible seems to indicate that low prices and lack of demand were problems at the time of the collapse of ancient Babylon (Revelation 18:11-13).

Slide 12

Much of what peak oil theory misunderstands is what our society as a whole misunderstands. Most people seem to believe that our economy will grow endlessly unless we somehow act to slow it down or stop it. They cannot imagine that the economy comes with built-in brakes, provided by the laws of physics.

Armed with a belief in endless growth, economists assume that the economy can expand year after year at close to the same rate. Modelers of all kinds, including climate modelers, miss the natural feedback loops that lead to the end of fossil fuel extraction without any attempt on our part to stop its extraction. A major part of the problem is that added complexity leads to too much wage and wealth disparity. Eventually, the low wages of many of the workers filter through to oil and other energy prices, making prices too low for producers.

Collapse isn’t instantaneous, as we will see on Slide 26. As resources per capita fall too low, there are several ways to keep problems hidden. More debt at lower interest rates can be added. New financial techniques can be developed to hide problems. Increased globalization can be used. Corners can be cut on electricity transmission, installation and maintenance, and in the building of new electricity generating structures. It is only when the economy hits a bump in the road (such as a climate-related event) that there suddenly is a major problem: Electricity production fails, or not enough food is produced. In fact, California, Florida, and China have all encountered the need for rolling blackouts with respect to electricity in the past year; China is now encountering difficulty with inadequate food supply, as well.

Economists have played a major role in hiding problems with energy with their models that seem to show that prices can be expected to rise if there is a shortage of oil or other energy. Their models miss the point that adequate supplemental energy is just as important for demand as it is for supply of finished goods and services. The reason energy is important for demand is because demand depends on the wages of workers, and the wages of workers in turn depend on the productivity of those workers. The use of energy supplies to allow workers to operate tools of many kinds (such as computers, trucks, electric lights, ovens, and agricultural equipment) greatly influences the productivity of those workers.

A person who believes energy prices can rise endlessly is likely to believe that recycling can increase without limit because of ever-rising prices. Such a person is also likely to believe that the substitution of intermittent renewables for fossil fuels will work because high prices for scarce electricity will enable an approach that is inherently high-cost, if any continuity of supply is required.

Thus, the confusion isn’t so much that of peak oilers. Instead, the confusion is that of economists and scientists building models based on past history. These models miss the turning points that occur as limits approach. They assume that future patterns will replicate past patterns, but this is not what happens in a finite world. If we lived in a world without limits, their models would be correct. This confusion is very much built into today’s thinking.

In fact, we are living in an economic system/ecosystem that has brakes to it. These brakes are being applied now, even though 99%+ of the population isn’t aware of the problem. The system will protect itself, quite possibly using the approach of evicting most humans.

Slide 13

The opinions expressed in Slide 13 reflect some of the views I have heard expressed speaking with peak oilers and with people looking into issues from a biophysical economics perspective. Obviously, views differ from person to person.

Many people believe that resources in the ground provide a good estimate of the quantity of fossil fuels that can be extracted in the future. Peak oilers tend to believe that the available resources will need to have sufficiently high “Energy Returned on Energy Invested” (EROEI) ratios to make extraction feasible. Politicians and climate modelers tend to believe that prices can rise endlessly, so low EROEI is no obstacle. They seem to believe that anything that we have the technical skill to extract, even coal under the North Sea, can be extracted.

If a person believes the high estimates of fossil fuel resources that seem to be available and misses the point that the economy has built-in brakes, climate change becomes the issue of major concern.

My view is that most of the resources that seem to be available will be left in the ground because of low prices and problems associated with collapse, such as failing governments and broken supply lines. In any event, we do not really have the ability to fix the climate; the laws of physics will provide their own adjustment. We will simply need to live with whatever climate is provided. Humans lived through ice-ages in the past. Presumably, whatever humans remain after what seems to be an upcoming bottleneck will be able to live in suitable areas of the world in the future.

Slide 14

On Slide 14, note that today’s industrial economy must necessarily come to an end, just as the lives of hurricanes and of people come to an end.

Also note that with diminishing returns, the cost of producing many of the things listed on Slide 14 is rising. For example, with rising population, dry areas of the world eventually need to use desalination to get enough fresh water for their growing populations. Desalination is expensive. Even if the necessary workaround is simply deeper wells, this still adds costs.

With diminishing returns affecting many parts of the economy simultaneously, it becomes increasingly difficult for efforts in the direction of efficiency to lead to costs that are truly lower on an inflation-adjusted basis. Advanced education and health care in particular tend to have an ever-rising inflation-adjusted costs of production. Some minerals do as well, as the quality of ores depletes.

Slide 15

An important issue to note is that wages need to cover all the rising costs, even the rising cost of health care. The paychecks of many people, especially those without advanced education, fall too low to meet all of their needs.

Slide 16

Slides 16 and 17 describe some of the reasons why oil prices don’t necessarily rise with scarcity.

Slide 17
Slide 18

I was one of the co-authors of the Ke Wang paper mentioned in Slide 18. We developed three different forecasts of how much oil would be extracted in China, depending on how high oil prices would be able to rise. The Red Line is the “Stays Low” Scenario, with prices close to $50 per barrel. The Yellow Line is the “Ever-Rising Prices” Scenario. The Best Estimate reflects the expectation that prices would be in roughly the $100 to $120 barrel range, from 2015 onward.

Slide 19

In fact, oil prices have stayed fairly low, and China’s oil production has declined, as our paper predicted.

Slide 20
Slide 21

Note that the chart on Slide 21 shows wage disparity only in the US. On this basis, the share of wages going to the top 1% and top 0.1% are back at the levels that they were in the 1920s. Now, our economy is much more global. If we consider all of the low income people in the world, the worldwide wage disparity is much greater.

Slide 22

There are two things to note on Slide 22. The first is that producers, in inflation-adjusted terms, seem to need very high prices, approximately $120 per barrel or more. This is based on a presentation made by Steve Kopits, which I wrote up here: Beginning of the End? Oil Companies Cut Back on Spending.

The other thing to note is that oil prices tend to bounce around a great deal. Prices seem to depend on the amount of debt and on interest rates, as well as the wages of workers. The peak in oil prices in mid-2008 came precisely at the time the debt bubble broke with respect to mortgage and credit card debt in the US. I wrote about this in an article in the journal Energy called, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis.

The US instituted Quantitative Easing (QE) at the end of 2008. QE acted to lower interest rates. With the help of QE, the price of oil gradually rose again. When the US discontinued QE in late 2014, oil prices fell. Recently, there has been a great deal of QE done, as well as direct spending by governments, but oil prices are still far below the $120 per barrel level. Middle Eastern oil producers especially need high oil prices, in order to collect the high tax revenue that they depend upon to provide programs for their citizens.

Slide 23

Coal prices (Slide 23) tend to follow somewhat the same pattern as oil prices (Slide 22). There is very much the same balancing act with coal prices as well: Coal prices need to be high enough for producers, but not too high for customers to buy products made with coal, such as electricity and steel.

China tries to keep its coal prices relatively high in order to encourage production within the country. China has been limiting imports to try to keep prices high. The relatively high coal prices of China make it an attractive destination for coal exporters. There are now a large number of boats waiting outside China hoping to sell coal to China at an attractive price.

Slide 24

The blue line on Figure 24 represents total energy consumption up through 2020. The red dotted line is a rough guesstimate of how energy consumption might fall. This decline could happen if people wanting energy consumption coming only from renewables were able to succeed by 2050 (except I am doubtful that these renewable energy types would really be of much use by themselves).

Alternatively, this might also be the decline that our self-organizing economy takes us on. We are already seeing a decrease in energy consumption related to the current pandemic. I think governmental reactions to the pandemic were prompted, in part, by the very stretched condition of our oil and other energy supplies. Countries were experiencing riots over low wages. They also could not afford to import as much oil as they were importing. Shutdowns in response to COVID-19 cases seemed like a sensible thing to do. They helped restore order and saved on energy imports. Strangely enough, the pandemic may be a part of the collapse that our self-organizing economy is arranging for us.

Slide 25

Slide 25 takes the blue line from Slide 24 and looks at what happened in more detail. On Slide 25, we are looking at the average annual increase in energy consumption, for a given 10 year period. This is split between the rate of population growth (blue), and the energy consumption growth that went into other things, which I equate to change in “standard of living” (red). The big red humps represent very good times, economically. The post-World War II bump is especially high. The valleys are times of disturbing changes, including wars and the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Of course, all of these situations occurred during periods when energy consumption was generally rising. If these unfortunate things happened when oil consumption was rising, what might possibly happen when energy consumption is falling?

Slide 26

We now seem to be hitting the Crisis Stage. In the past, collapse (which takes place in the Crisis Stage) has not been instantaneous; it has taken place over quite a number of years, typically 20 or more. The world economy is quite different now, with its international trade system and heavy use of debt. It would seem likely that a collapse could happen more quickly. A common characteristic of collapses, such as avalanches, is that they often seem to start off fairly slowly. Then, suddenly, a large piece breaks away, and there is a big collapse. Something analogous to this could possibly happen with the economy, too.

Slide 27

One of the major issues with adding intermittent renewables to the electric grid is a pricing problem. Once wind and solar are given subsidies (even the subsidy of “going first”), all of the other types of electricity production seem to need subsidies, as well. It is the pricing systems that are terribly detrimental, although this is not generally noticed. In fact, researchers who are looking only at energy may not even care if the pricing is wrong. Ultimately, the low pricing for electricity can be expected to bring the electric grid down, just as inadequate prices for fossil fuels can be expected to lead to the closure of many fossil fuel producers. Both Texas and California are having difficulty because they have not been collecting enough funds from customers to build resilient systems.

Slide 28
Slide 29

The focus of EROEI research is often with respect to whether the EROEI of a particular type of energy production is “high enough,” relative to some goal, such as 3:1 or 10:1. I believe that there needs to be more focus on the total quantity of net energy produced. If there is an EROEI goal for highly complex energy types, it needs to be much higher than for less complex energy types.

Slide 30

Today, it is common to see the EROEIs of a number of different types of energy displayed side-by-side as if they were comparable. This type of comparison is also made with other energy metrics, such as “Levelized Cost of Electricity” and “Energy Payback Period.” I think this approach makes highly complex types of energy production, such as intermittent wind and solar, look better than they really are. Even intermittent hydroelectric power generation, such as is encountered in places with rainy seasons and dry seasons and in places that are subject to frequent droughts, is not really comparable to electricity supply that can be provided year-around by fossil fuel providers, if adequate storage is available.

Slide 31

Earlier in this post, I documented a number of reasons why we should expect low rather than high energy prices in the future. I am reiterating the point here because it is a point energy researchers need especially to be aware of. Production is likely to come to an end because it is unprofitable.

Slide 32

One characteristic of human-made complexity is that it has very little redundancy. If something goes wrong in one part of one system, it is likely to ripple through that system, as well as other systems to which the first system is connected. An outage of oil is likely to indirectly affect electricity because oil is needed to fix problems with electricity transmission lines. An electricity outage may cause disruption in oil drilling and refining, and even in filling up automobiles at service stations. An international trade disruption can break supply lines and leave shipping containers at the wrong end of the globe.

We know that collapse tends to lead to less complex systems. We should expect fewer jobs requiring advanced education. We should expect to start losing battles against infectious diseases. We should expect a reduction in international trade; in the future, it may primarily take place among a few trusted partners. Some intergovernmental organizations are likely to disappear. Peak oil cannot happen by itself; it can only happen with disruptions and shrinkage in many other parts of the economy, as well.

Slide 33

The climate is indeed changing. Unfortunately, we humans have little ability to change what is happening, especially at this late date. Arguably, some changes could have been made much earlier, for example in the 1970s when the modeling included in the 1972 book The Limits to Growth by Donnela Meadows and others showed that the world economy was likely to hit limits before 2050.

It is clear to many people that the world economy is now struggling. There is too much debt; young people are having trouble finding jobs that pay well enough; people in poor countries are increasingly more food insecure. Leaders everywhere would like solutions. The “easy” solution to offer is that intermittent wind and solar will solve all our problems, including climate change. The closer a person looks at the situation, the more the solution seems like nonsense. Wind and solar work passably well at small concentrations within electric systems, if it is possible to work around their pricing problems. But they don’t scale up well. Energy researchers especially should be aware of these difficulties.

The book Rare Earth: Why Complex Life Is Uncommon in the Universe by Peter Ward and Donald Brownlee points out that there have been an amazing number of what seem to be coincidences that have allowed life on Earth to flourish for four billion years. Perhaps these coincidences will continue. Perhaps there is an underlying plan that we are not aware of.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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3,333 Responses to Why Collapse Occurs; Why It May Not Be Far Away

  1. Nehemiah says:

    Are bankers wrong this time? Is Thursday’s spike in bond yields a nervous anomaly, or the beginning of something much bigger? The big banks have been on the long side of the bond trade, with small investors (the dumb money) on the short side. Thursday, yields spiked abnormally, favoring the dumb money for a change. But could this be one of the rare cases where the little guys get it right (albeit probably for the wrong reasons), while the big banks are getting caught on the wrong side of financial history? Time will tell, but here is one theory about how the banksters could lose this time–and all of America will lose with them if the theory is right, and it begins with the mysterious rise in value of the British pound sterling in months gone by, which leads to an exploration of secretive manipulations of global currency markets by Communist China, with a strategic objective which, if achieved, will be catastrophic to the US economy and to it’s global power and influence in the near future. Here’s the money shot, near the end of the story:

    But this would also mean that playing out alongside the connected UK vaccination campaign and the improving BoE outlook is almost certainly the story of an FX reserve diversification away from the U.S. Dollar.

    This means, among other things, that it may not be coincidence that with the rally in Sterling aside the top story in all things financial of late has been the ongoing sell-off in the U.S. bond market and associated surge in yields. Some have worried about the impact rising yields could have on global stock markets.

    “I believe the dollar is on the cusp of losing its exorbitant privilege as the world’s foremost reserve currency.” Savouri says. “Without the need to keep the yuan artificially weak against the US dollar, Beijing will no longer need to accumulate and hold dollar paper. The consequence is chillingly simple enough to foresee; a rout in the Treasury market. Whilst this will have unwelcome consequences to parts of the world holding Treasury’s, the most dramatic impact will be felt within a United States where, for the first time in a very long time, the Federal Government will have to live within its own fiscal means, rather than rely on being handed the world’s wealth to save.”

    Full story (and a little bit technical if you are not familiar with the foreign exchange markets):

    A very disturbing graph:

    • It seems like Biden’s request for a $1.9 billion stimulus package (and likely many more similar requests to follow) is part of what is causing the readjustment. Borrowing a huge amount of money should send US interest rates up and its relativity to other currencies down.

      Of course, the fact that the US has been able to buy far more than it sells abroad for many years as the world’s reserve currency has allowed Americans to have a higher standard of living than they deserve. At some point this has to come to an end. I hadn’t thought about the UK pound being a beneficiary.

      If US oil drilling is not doing as well as in the past, this could be contributing to its problems. The big Texas electricity outage couldn’t be helping anything either.

      • Nehemiah says:

        When the UK was having its Brexit worries, I took a small position against the pound based on the political uncertainty. Month after month my drawdown went deeper as the pound continued to rise against the dollar for reasons I could not fathom and that no one else seemed to have a good explanation for. I finally had to cut my loss and sell. Now it makes some sense. The PBOC has to bid the euro up slowly because the EU will not tolerate rapid appreciation, but the UK is nonchalant or even positive about seeing the pound rise sharply. If the pound rises against the dollar a lot more than the euro does, it will be easier for the euro to also get bid up in its wake, perhaps through a currency arbitrage process.

        If we ever have to pay for our imports by selling exports like other countries, that will be tough, because we just don’t make as much stuff any more, and consumers and firms will both have to pay a lot more for our imports as well. Further, OPEC might decide to revalue its oil in terms of a different currency. That would be the end of the Petrodollar.

        US fracking industry: they are hesitant to expand because they know that the politicians currently in power are influenced by activists who are very hostile to fracking. Biden promised his followers he would ban fracking during the campaign. Later, he backtracked under pressure from Trump, but it would be risky to totally throw his base under the bus on this issue.

        • NomadicBeer says:

          Nehemiah said:
          “Biden promised his followers he would ban fracking during the campaign. Later, he backtracked under pressure from Trump, but it would be risky to totally throw his base under the bus on this issue.”

          You are sorely misinformed about american politics. Biden is a typical neoliberal politician (like most Ds and Rs) and will betray everything he said during his campaign. The only question is what do the billionaires want? I think fracking is still useful so they will continue it but the production will drop anyway.

          As for his “base”, they will forget everything the next time a made up scandal is screamed about on TV (racism! sexism! terrorism!)

          Plus you forget that the oligarchs control the voting machines, why would they care what the masses think?

  2. Hot off the Press: Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla admits Israel is the ‘world’s lab.’ ]

    When CEO Bourla was asked by NBC whether one could infect others after receiving two doses of the vaccine, Bourla admitted:

    “It is something that needs to be confirmed, and the real-world data that we are getting from Israel and other studies will help us understand this better.”

    If CEO Bourla isn’t sure whether his ‘vaccine’ prevents the spreading of the disease, why is he selling it around the world? Why should any government allow this substance being used until all necessary precautions have been taken? Furthermore, in the light of the emerging concern that the vaccinated can spread the disease (which CEO Bourla doesn’t deny), what is the meaning of the ‘green passport’? I guess that such a document could be easily replaced by a ‘gullible certificate’ awarded to those who were foolish enough to turn themselves in.

    • Interestin! Robert Firth, down below on this thread, indicates that he thinks the Pfizer vaccines may be the cause of mutations we are getting. If the RNA has a chance to mutate, after if warms up but before it is given to a person, it may create a new variety of the virus, as I understand the situation. This may be playing a role in the bad results in the countries using the mRNA vaccines.

      • Nehemiah says:

        It may be possible, although I need to hear the details, since it was my understanding that all vaccines are based on using genetic material that already exists in the virus itself. Do the new vaccines no longer follow that principle? Not that I know of, so I don’t understand how they could produce mutants. However, we do know that mutants were popping up now and then even before we had a vaccine. Yes, the genomes of the mutants have been sequenced, so this is not just theoretical.

      • VFatalis says:

        Not Pfizer vaccine, the Astrazeneca. It was used in UK, South Africa & Brazil. Exactly where mutations were observed.

  3. Mirror on the wall says:

    Oh darlings, all you need now is a planet with infinite resources and then growth can go on forever. It just ain’t fair! But will CCP pip USA to the finishing post?

    It seems fairly clear that no economic state is taking the limits to growth seriously – or if they are then they have concluded that the best policy is BAU for as long as possible. It may be that no state sees slow decline or managed step downs as a realistic possibility – after all, capitalism is a profit(, debt) and growth based economic system – ‘no growth, no profits – no capitalism’ as I always say. I suppose that they can always just print money – until they can’t. If c 19 was intended as a managed step down then CCP was not informed. CCP seeks a ‘performance based’ rather than just an ideological ‘legitimacy’ and ‘development’ is its key objective – so step downs are not really on the agenda.

    > China’s parliament readies road map to overtake US economy

    New five- and 15-year plans to bolster defenses against foreign sanctions

    When China convenes the most important event on its political calendar, the annual National People’s Congress, on March 5, it will approve a long-term plan spanning 15 years. By the end of that road map, in 2035, China sees itself replacing the U.S. as the world’s largest economy.

    The two-week session of the NPC and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, an advisory body, comes a little over a month after the inauguration of U.S. President Joe Biden. With the new American administration aiming to align allies and partners to form a united front to face a “strategic competition” with China, the NPC will come under extreme scrutiny as a window into Beijing’s policies over the next five years and beyond.

    Among the goals of the new five-year plan are to expand the middle class, which already counts 400 million, and to become a high-income country. That economy will rely less on external demand and be supported by domestic consumption. China also wants to hone its technological prowess so as to build supply chains immune to external sanctions — a response to the U.S. enlisting partners in the growing Sino-American economic and technological rivalry.

    China was the only major economy to grow in 2020, having largely brought COVID-19 under control ahead of the U.S. and others. Chinese real gross domestic product is expected to climb around 8% in 2021. It is “completely possible” for China to double its GDP or per-capita income by 2035, Xi had said in November.


    • We don’t know how much of China’s growth in 2020 was really pseudo-growth. China reports that the economy grew by 2.3%, but retail sales contracted by 3.9% for the year. We also know that the highest year for private passenger automobile sales in China was 2017. Sales declined in 2018, 2019, and 2020. There seems to be a great deal more unemployment now among migrant workers.

      China is known for sponsoring projects that are really not needed. For example:

      –Building coal fired power plants and coal mines very far from markets. Then, either there are not sufficient transmission lines to take the power to where it might be used by industry, or it is too expensive to transport the coal to power plants in industrial areas.
      –Building roads where little traffic can reasonably anticipated.
      –Building homes that no one can afford to buy.

      All of these things get added to GDP, whether the do anything more than temporarily generate jobs.

    • Ed says:

      China has a sane ruling class that cares about China versus the US with an insane ruling class that only cares about its Swiss/Chinese ban accounts.

      China is doing well in AI. It needs to build out its semiconductor equipment making sector. Just money and hard work no magic there. By 2030 China can lead the world in semiconductors and AI if it continues to invest strongly and avoid corruption like the Albany New York Nano Tech Center experienced.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      The theory doing the rounds is that the USA state is conspiring to get the Taiwan state to declare independence during the Beijing Olympics in July. The aim is to provoke China state, which claims sovereignty over the island, into military intervention, so as to try to isolate China in the global economy from Western economic states and from anyone else who will go along with the scheme. It is intended to be some major weaponised grandstanding. Who knows?

      • Bei Dawei says:

        Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ying-wen, is a rather cautious sort, and has avoided purely symbolic changes (e.g. of the flag or anthem). However her VP, William Lai, is an outspoken Taiwan independence supporter.

        The USA has evolved a bipartisan position of protecting Taiwan (somewhat) while also discouraging it from undertaking “provocative” acts. This leads me to doubt the rumor you cite.

        Although the USA is generally more powerful, the location of the battlefield favors China, so the USA would likely avoid this. Also, a US-China war would seriously harm both counties’ (already reeling) economies, which would in turn threaten their respective governments.

        If Taiwan falls, China can threaten Japan and Korea. This would mean the end of the US power in the western Pacific, and a disastrous drop in confidence in US allies elsewhere. In other words, it would be bad. The USA is unlikely to risk all this on some farfetched scheme.

        • Robert Firth says:

          Bei Dawei, I agree. The US is unlikely to provoke a military confrontation over Taiwan, for the simple reason that the US would lose.

          In six hours, China could gain complete air superiority over Taiwan; in another six hours, the invasion force could have cut the island into three pieces (groups North and South) and invested Taipei (group Centre).

          China can then declare a 50 km exclusion zone around Taiwan, which would make it impossible for foreign sea power to attempt either to relieve the island or to close the Taiwan strait. How fast can an aircraft carrier move? 35 knots perhaps, or 1100 meters per minute. Well, in just one minute a hypersonic missile can fly those entire 50 nm, and there is nothing in the US arsenal that can intercept it. Scratch one flattop.

          • Kowalainen says:

            Taiwan could of course license some 500 IKEA bookshelves (Sweden is “neutral” and all that) instead of mucking around with baroque ‘murican combat furniture and rein uncontested in the living room airspace of president Tsai’s

            Full jamming and sensor suites and a few globaleye roaming in the background making targeting the swarm a bit iffy. The commie cronies would not hold a candle against 10 minutes of rearm and refuel on normal roads. It would have been mayhem for the PLA. Cant bombard every 800M of straight road. Taiwan itself is the ultimate flattop.

        • Hugh Stokes says:

          I imagine that China would really want to take over Taiwan’s advanced manufacturing industries intact. If China tried to invade the Taiwanese forces could easily destroy them. China would probably prefer to wait in the hopes of uniting with Taiwan by political means.

      • What Olympics?

        • Mirror on the wall says:

          Quite right, they are a year off.

          > Beijing 2022 will host the XXIV Olympic Winter Games, 4-20 Feb.

    • Nehemiah says:

      Capitalism (Marx’s word) just refers to private ownership of the means of production, coupled with very few restrictions on trade, so capitalism without growth is certainly possible. If growth is possible, entrepreneurs will certainly find a way to make it possible, but the end of growth does not have to mean the end of private ownership, lightly regulated exchange, or entrepreneurship.

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        I am not an economist but I have come across very few people who would agree with what you have just said – for the obvious reason that capitalism is a profit based system and therefore a growth based system. Perhaps we could get a poll of economists on that point.

        Capitalism is not just private ownership and trade and AFAIK no one says that it is – so does slavery and feudalism involve private property and trade. It is an economic system that is characterised first and foremost by the predominance of wage labour which is unique to it and by the dependence on the extraction of surplus value in the market place for the functioning of the entire system.

        Those are basic uncontroversial points AFAIK. Marx has not really got anything to do with it, no economist would give a definition of capitalism that fails to distinguish it as an economic system from other forms of private property and trade.

        • Nehemiah says:

          “capitalism is a profit based system and therefore a growth based system.”

          A non-sequitur. Sure, all capitalists want to make a profit individually, but that does not guarantee growth in the aggregate. There were lots of profitable businesses in the Middle Ages, Antiquity, and the Bronze Age, probably in the Neolithic period too, but economic growth was either non-existent or too slow to measure. Every business must turn a profit or the businessman will starve, just as every farmer must produce crops well in excess of the seeds he plants, yet that does not guarantee growth in the aggregated economy.

          “Capitalism is not just private ownership and trade and AFAIK no one says that it is”

          I have a surprise for you: open up google and type in the words:
          define capitalism

          “so does slavery and feudalism involve private property and trade.”

          Trade was very limited under feudalism. Feudal manors aspired to a high degree of self sufficiency and minimal use of money. The trade that did exist was highly regulated and mostly very local.

          Slaves do not own themselves and cannot offer their services in a free, competitive market, so although it can coexist with capitalism, neither chattel slavery nor serfdom are capitalist institutions. As non-market institutions, they are “out of place.” Marx understood.

          “It is an economic system that is characterised first and foremost by the predominance of wage labour which is unique to it”

          I challenge the unique part. Wages exist even in Commie states. The difference is that under socialism, in the strict sense of the word, the means of production is owned by the “public,” or in practice the state. But they still pay their workers either wages or salaries, since the alternative is to pay them “in kind,” which would be a throw back to feudalism.

          But to be fair, self described “non-market socialists” or “true socialists” have objected to this and insisted that labor should not be paid but simply allowed to walk into the stores whenever they wished and take whatever they wanted. Yes, some of them really believe this would be a workable system! Marxists generally don’t believe in any kind of hard wired human nature.

          “and by the dependence on the extraction of surplus value in the market place for the functioning of the entire system.”

          Since the late Victorian era,non-Marxist economists have abandoned the medieval labor theory of value for a theory centered around marginal utility.

          “Marx has not really got anything to do with it”

          Of course he does: Marx invented the word! If not for Marx, we would not be discussing something called “capitalism.”

          “no economist would give a definition of capitalism that fails to distinguish it as an economic system from other forms of private property and trade.”

          Fair enough, but that is trickier than you may think. It is very difficult to come up with a definition that did not describe common economic behavior thousands of years ago. Private property, wages, capital accumulation, free or minimally regulated trade–you can read about all these things in the Bible. These are all ancient practices.

          What really distinguished the high productive capitalism that Marx both admired and objected to was high rates of technical innovation and increasing energy intensity, but Marx completely missed how these two factors distinguished the economies of Modern Europe from all previous ages, and his disciples have not been any more insightful on this point but have just repeated Marx’s understanding of capitalism mindlessly.

          And why have haters of private enterprise missed these two critical differences? I think because they intuitively grasp that it seems to point to something about modern Europeans, especially those whose recent ancestors evolved in the regions characterized by manorial feudalism, as being to some degree genetically different. In short, it points to the thesis implicit in, hinted at, yet never explicitly articulated, by Gregory Clark in his book _A Farewell to Alms_.

          Economists are social scientists, and they share the biases common to social scientists (with the partial exception of psychologists) that human beings are basically blank slates and potentially interchangeable parts whose evolution ceased tens of millennia ago, or at least stopped at the neck. “Going there” challenges something essential (or perhaps essentialist) to the whole Enlightenment worldview of a rigidly fixed human nature that is shaped, or at least individual differences must (“must!”) be shaped, only by the non-genetic environment. They don’t want to follow the evidence to its logical conclusion, that evolution has not only continued but accelerated as the population and therefore its mutations increased, that individuals differ for innate and heritable reasons, and that gene pools differ for the same reasons. It is the new blasphemy for a secular age devoted to an egalitarian faith.

          • Robert Firth says:

            Essential reading: Steven Pinker, “The Blank Slate”, 2002. One sentence summary: he eviscerates the idea and uses its guts for garters.

        • Nehemiah says:

          I intended but forgot while typing to mention in the main body of my reply that economists are fond of explaining national differences in economic achievement by “institutions” by which they do not mean organizations but “rules,” usually rules established by the state. Gregory Clark looks at the economic history of England and tries to find rules changes that could explain why the industrial revolution took off there, from which it quickly spread to other parts of Europe through emulation, and he could not. But what he did find was that for generations the financial achievers, especially profitable, capitalistic farmers who produced crops for the market, the forerunners of the bourgeoisie, were having more surviving offspring than everyone else, and there was a lot of downward mobility as a result, with the surplus sons of these successful farmers (and I suppose merchants and craftsmen) moving down the social scale and competing the people who already occupied that niche. Clark does not deal explicitly with the question of whether it was cultural habits or genetically coded tendencies that the successful members of society passed on to their offspring, but the question may be irrelevant, since researchers have found that almost all human behaviors are substantially heritable.

        • Mirror on the wall says:

          The question whether capitalism – as a modern profit based, growth based system of capital accumulation through the extraction of surplus value and debt repayment, consumer demand and wage dependency etc. and fundamentally distinct from previous economic systems – can function at all without constant growth, has been topical over the past few decades because of the ecological and ‘degrowth’ agendas and it is usually discussed within those contexts. Many academic papers have been written on the subject and it is a popular Phd subject along with full length books. Here is a just few items to get you started, as I am not about to write a paper on the subject here and now. Let me know if you want some more and I will knock you up a quick bibliography. One occasionally encounters the far right crank idea that ‘there is no such thing as ‘capitalism” and frankly I do not have time for that nonsense.

          Happy reading!

          > Smith, Richard (2010). “Beyond growth or beyond capitalism?” (PDF). Real-World Economics Review. Bristol: World Economics Association. 53: 28–42.


          > Foster, John Bellamy (2011). “Capitalism and Degrowth—An Impossibility Theorem” (PDF). Monthly Review. 62 (8): 26–33.


          > Trainer, Ted (2011). “The radical implications of a zero growth economy” (PDF). Real-World Economics Review. Bristol: World Economics Association (57): 71–82.


          > Fernández Durán, Ramón (2012). The Breakdown of Global Capitalism: 2000-2030. Preparing for the beginning of the collapse of industrial civilisation [97–100] (PDF contains full book). Madrid: Ecologistas en Acción.


          > Markantonatou, Maria (2013). “From ‘The Limits to Growth’ to ‘Degrowth’: Discourses of Critique of Growth in the Crises of the 1970s and 2008” [45–51] (PDF). DFG-KP Working Paper. 5. ISSN 2194-136X


  4. Theo says:

    Somebody is having a laugh, and it’s good to see.


  5. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    Just to Chime in today and had a nice 🌄 morning with my older Sister (66) and taking Mother (98 years old) to a Florida Public Park that provides Pfizer vaccines to tolder 65 years. Took Sis a number of weeks to arrange an appointment date from someone calling from Midwest (Iowa Call center! ).
    I alerted both of the dangers, shortcoming of these vaccines to no avail. So, been 3 hours and both seem fine (they delayed us 15 minutes for observation before departing the Park). Have to have second dose in 3 weeks. Took a good hour all in all. Many cars in line with a host of folks standing around with clipboards and safety vests doing nothing. Paperwork was straight forward and streamlined. Really no mention of adverse side effects and if so what to do or where to call.
    Suppose they learned something from the Covid 19 testing procedure.
    I’ll update if anything out of the ordinary occurs. Right now my Mother’s Doctor retired suddenly because of health issues and trying to sign her to a new primary care physician. BTW, Mother tested positive for Covid 19 about a year ago and was very sick for a few days, but survived🍏 Not so easy with her plan she is under and her age. The bureaucracy of the health care system is only outdone by the government.
    Thanks for the posts everyone….keeps me awake between coffee cups!

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “Right now my Mother’s Doctor retired suddenly because of health issues…”

      did Doc just get vaccinated?

      • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

        That’s a good question 😃…I don’t think so, the rumor mill next door that was circulating was Doctor R. was looking to sell her practice a while back.
        Obviously, that did happen and she was complaining about the state of things in medicine. Very cautious about safe distance and masking.
        She was at the age of retirement, so suppose this was a good time to pack it in and not hang on too long.
        Remember, her frustration about patients making appointments and not showing up .,hard to say.
        Was in one office looking around and the sign there had a warning…MUST be present within 15 minutes of appointment time or you will be rescheduled!
        Most Physicians now work in Groups ….suppose it spreads the overhead costs.
        Anyway, 😯 surprised 🙀 here on all the posts regarding the vaccine.

    • Tim Groves says:

      Good find! This site has a long, long list of articles on people who have died, many in the prime of life, just hours or days after being vaccinated. Some of these stories are truly tragic in terms of the amount of distress and grief they leave in their wake.

      But this site is also full of ads and may take a while to load on older devices.

      • Ano737 says:

        Does it say anything about how many of the millions that got these vaccines haven’t died or suffered other adverse effects?

        • Tsubion says:

          haven’t died or suffered other adverse effects?


          Give it time.

          Many doctors have explained how effects such as autoimmune disease (vasculitis being one) can appear after 3 months 6 months or even after a year.

          Virologists and microbiologists have also explained that the injected can suffer strong reactions when they next come down with colds or flu – cytokine storms etc.

          My father got his first jab the other day and a relative came round to ask if he noticed any adverse effects. My dad said no and that was enough for the relative to give the go ahead for his family and himself.

          The level of ignorance is astounding all around. I live in a tiny village where 99% of the inhabitants walk around with face diapers in the bright sunshine.

          I fear that we are done as a species.

        • Tsubion says:


          By your measure…

          It’s ok if 5% of injected suffer death or damage as long as the 95% appear to be doing ok.

          This is typical of standards upheld by the criminal mafia known as Big Pharma where the only real measure is in dollars.

          Pay the occasional fine. Carry on as if nothing happened.

  6. World Economic Forum shouted down on Twitter for suggesting Covid-19 lockdowns ‘improved cities all over the world’

    The World Economic Forum, globalist champion of the Great Reset, has ruffled feathers online with an “out-of-touch” tweet how Covid-19 lockdowns are “quietly improving cities” across the globe.

    A video accompanying the Friday tweet by the WEF shows images of deserted streets, grounded airliners and idle factories, then notes record declines in air pollution and a drop in carbon emissions. It later shows busy, smog-choked highways and notes that “the drop won’t slow climate change unless we lock in emissions cuts.”

    • Tsubion says:

      Less human activity and less humans (carbon life forms – zero carbon world) is all an improvement in Klaus Baby’s eyes!

    • Xabier says:

      WEF: bringing you all the best news from your Digital Future!

      Ah yes, the long rows of empty and boarded up shops and restaurants that make you want to shoot yourself – such an improvement!

      And anyway, pollution has shot up here, caused by all the damn diesel vans and cars delivering online goods.

      Luckily, all I’ve had to shoot with this past year has been a bow and arrows. There is something to be said for firearms restrictions……

    • Robert Firth says:

      If you want to know what the WEF regards as an improved city, visit Machu Picchu.

      • Kowalainen says:

        Ah, are facts of former times of grandeur, ego and ultimately folly. Some of the stone work there seem to be quite advanced for the “era” 🤣👍

        It seems to be common theme when engineers visit the pyramids, examine the detail and then promptly reject any claims (from archeologists) that those were made with soft metal chisels and other stone tools. Nope. That is clearly made with some CNC machinery of the “epoch”.

        Clearly some shenanigans has been well hidden from the public eye by various skullduggery, tricks and games.

        So why not repeat history. Learning from mistakes seems so stereotypical of his breed called, yup, you guessed it right. Engineers. (For the most part)

        • Tsubion says:

          I believe the stones were poured in liquid form into sacks. Hence the tight seems and otherworldly precision.

          • Kowalainen says:

            A pet hypothesis of mine is that they got lifted into space from the quarries and cut to shape there.

            Assume an ancient space faring civilization with know-how in asteroid mining. They could for sure carve out the goodies out of a piece of stone. No problem to shape some granite however they wish.

            /hypothesis off


        • Robert Firth says:

          Kowalainen, I have visited many old sites, including both Machu Picchu and the Pyramids. I tried to look at them with the eye of an architect, but with a training in the natural sciences. And in almost all cases, the overwhelming impression was that the archaeologists were pretty much wrong. The sarcophagus in the Pyramid of Khufu, for instance, was drilled out of granite; you can still see the faint regular grooves made by the drill, especially at the inside corners, which are slightly curved.

          Likewise, the life size statue of Khufu, in the Cairo Museum, was carved out of diorite, the hardest known stone, and its surface is almost perfectly smooth.

          The agricultural terraces of Machu Picchu were fed by small canals, all sloping at 1 part in 200 (as were Roman aqueducts),but across mostly natural terrain.

          Not done by space aliens; rather by ingenuity, patient hard work, and very great skill. The tools are not really relevant; any stone can be cut by a just slightly softer stone; indeed, that is the better way to do it.

          • Kowalainen says:

            I’m a bit skeptical of the “hard work” part. To build massive structures of astounding tolerances require sophisticated measuring and stone cutting apparatuses. Let’s call it ACNC. Archaic CNC. Some powerful enough plasma, ultrasonics and lazor cutters for sure could chew through rock like it was paper. As for powering it; how about microwaves from space? Now we’ll need some rather large antennae to capture the beams and project them into a transformer of some sort.

            Here is a fun hypotheses I play with. Assume the almighty gods of the old existed after all (archangels, Zeus, Thor, etc) and simply is a construct of something else. I guess that “something else” learned a valuable lesson meddling with poorly understood processes of the universe and its own origins.

            Regret is suffering.
            But hey, nobody’s perfect.
            You’re excused. 🤣👍

            What really baffles me is the need for humans in the first place. Why not just mechanize the whole operation and leave the primates alone? It is quite frankly bewildering. As if it was a game. Something playing Starcraft with rapacious primates and their overlords.

            If I’d ever meet a ‘space alien’, I’d ask it to cut the BS and take me to the master. Anything that seems like “us” for sure should be accepted with a sack of salt. Biological creatures is not very well suited for space travel since we cannot simply power down/power save across vast distances.

            /hypothesis off


            • Robert Firth says:

              I understand your skepticism: could mere grunt work really have piled up six million tonnes of stone into a Great Pyramid?

              Yes, it could. The Egyptian farmer was unemployed for two to three months every year, while the waters of the Nile flood abated. They were hired to work on public monuments, such as pyramids. There being no money, they were paid in bread and beer.

              We know this because of the graffiti on the inside surfaces of some of the now fallen stones, etched with those same copper tools. They boast of the prowess of the “gangs” of workmen, probably all from the same village, who did the work. The gangs even gave themselves names.

              The stones were pulled with ropes (which we have found), up inclined planes (the remains of which we have found), and fitted together by simply rubbing the upper stone against the lower until both surfaces were smooth.

              Add some very clever architects who knew geometry and surveying, and it all works. The first architect, by the way, lived in the Third Dynasty, and designed the first pyramid: the Step Pyramid at Saqqara. His name was ‘Imhotep’ (“I come forth satisfied”).

            • Kowalainen says:

              I’m not denying that there was some heavy manual labor going on. But that is not the important thing, rather the precision and accuracy. Plus the quarry operations and moving stones with archaic gear. Nope, 1000 ton blocks isn’t cut and moved by mankind today. Definitely and absolutely not in the prehistoric times.

              Any hypothesis with any credibility according to my knowledge indicate that humans got a helping hand with some heavy lifting and stone cutting machinery. Quite possibly with spiffy space rock mining gear in orbit and limited amounts in the quarries. Once the job is done, lift the gear back into orbit.

              Some silly graffiti/scratches on the walls prove nothing. By the way, why isn’t there any graffiti on the interior. Just straight cut surfaces and nothing else. It sort of reminds me of a few CAD/CAM designs I made quite recently. Why bother with some yada-yada when the work itself is enough.

              As for those “Sumerian” tablets and inscriptions. Pure hogwash, the MSM of the era. X fought with Y, Y lost. X writes the history. Creation myths and the usual BS. Yawn. 🥱

              The pyramids just sits there and emits a thunderous silence. “Figure this out you easily herded halfwits” seem to be the message.

              Something bored is certainly playing Starcraft with mankind. Which is awesome, but a bit silly at this stage. I guess we had enough of the uncalled for grief and suffering. But what do I know. 🤔

              /hypothesis off

            • Thierry says:

              A teacher of mine has made the same hypothesis. It’s pleasant and explains many things easily. If so, only a few people on Earth would know this secret and they would call themselves “Illuminati”. But since they are masters in deception I’m not sure I can trust them.

            • Kowalainen says:

              I guess the club of mutual foolery is wanking off to “destiny”, rebirth and renewal while browsing LTG, Nietzsche, Malthus, Hinduism and some silly ass archaic stone tablets full of the usual cringe inducing BS.

              Send down one of the archangels with the usual bells and whistles. I’d simply state:

              -“Watch this carefully!”


              -“Did you see it?”

              I DON’T CARE. GTFO!

              That’s how to do it.


      • Xabier says:

        Quite so, their dream city. As dear old Klaus would say: ‘Everything stable and in order!’

  7. Minority Of One says:

    This is hilarious. An Irish farmer not happy with being stopped at a police checkpoint.

    I believe RTE is the Irish national TV broadcaster.


    • Xabier says:

      So when are the ‘fighting Irish’ going to rise and rid themselves of the globalist Government of Occupation which is putting them through this nonsense?

      • geno mir says:

        Irish are very stable nd have it good rn. They are very well put in weathering in comming Collapse. Historically the island is a safe place for all kind of ellites. This time it is the same.

      • Tsubion says:

        Humanity is like a dopey sleeping powerful giant kept in a subdued state by a minor flea infestation. The fleas use simple tricks to keep the giant from waking up but it works… for a while.

        The Giant is waking up. There’s life in the old dog yet. A little slap here… a little smack there… and he’ll shake off the fleas like they’re nothing. Because they are nothing. Just little tricksters.

        • geno mir says:

          Except tricksters they are ruthless psychopaths. I have rub shoulders with some corpo dignitaries and scions. They are like different species. Otherwise I more or less agree with you but the fkea infestation is a cyclical event. What the fleas will be next time? I wonder.

          • Tsubion says:

            Maybe you’re right. Maybe the fleas are just tooo tricky. Time to get out the industrial strength insecticide!

            I just heard a local biochemist call out the disgusting level of corruption in the medical and pharma industry where I live including the university system. I believe it’s more or less the same everywhere. People have to toe the line or they get dropped like a bag of hammers.

            I’m fairly confident that the tide is turning on those corpo types. They will probably have to retreat and regroup for a while. I sense that the giant is going to go on a rampage and do some damage until it gets tied down again.

            • Xabier says:

              There is a perceptible change now that the talk is of 100% ‘vaccination’, and, above all, doing the children – and even babies one day.

              Even the dimmest are starting to sense all is not above board.

              A great mistake has been hinting that summer holidays may not after all be allowed in 2021: over-confident, they are going too far and too fast.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Have a friend who is keen to get the jab — will get it as soon as it is made available … he’s early 40’s…

              But he will not give this to his two young kids…

              That’s Mr. DNA being assertive and issuing this edict to him…. Mr DNA does not care if he dies because he has already performed his role in reincarnated Mr DNA … so if he dies from the shot not a problem…. but the offspring…. that cannot be allowed

            • Tsubion says:


              Yes, yes and yes.

              I would love to witness a great awakening of sorts – walking away from the king – but I’ve learned to temper my optimism over the years as things don’t usually work as expected.

              Its also a case of be careful what you wish for. The genie (or AI) could misinterpret your wish. Delivering a fatal blow to these industries NOW could backfire on all of us by speeding up collapse.

              Sometimes I think it would be worth it though.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              If they Elders have worked out a way to survive this… then I full support burning this MOFO to the ground…


            • Tsubion says:


              I’m getting there. Just give me a couple of months.

              The last year confirmed for me once and for all that only a minority are gifted with scepticism and critcal thought.

              Those other things you see waddliing about and getting in your face are biological robots – sacks of excrement on legs.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            I met a guy a couple of weeks ago at a BBQ… he was formerly vice chairman of a large bank… he is the head of another smaller bank … was a major player in US politics behind the scenes… I was later told he lives in a 25M dollar ‘holiday house’ in QT…. so he is one of the high level doomie preppers that lurk in QT.. (all are completely delusional of course)…

            You’d think he’d be a bit more switched on than the rest of us but nope … as Jim Jones was to purple kool-aid so he was with The Vaccine… everything will return to normal when the vaccines roll out… although he did express concern about the ‘variants’… of course he would – the MSM told him he should…

            So nah… these people in high places are no different than anyone else…

            I would argue the more cash you have the more likely you are to believe the official narrative… you MUST believe that there is a way out… because you have the MOST to lose if there isn’t!!!

  8. German establishment hints that the easing of the most harsh restrictions won’t end before late Q2 or Q3 – which could be sign of deliminator for the threshold of the final market crash and or other event.

    Cheesy playback video of quality ~white soul~ from the happier times near peak prosperity, notice till the end that sn@il mail procedure for voting in the hit parade (addressed to Munich).

    • Tsubion says:

      The sun is out. People are NOT going to stay locked up! Time to rise up and take back the world. Nothing to lose.

      Mass mask burning ceremony. Pick a date. Repeat until they’re all gone. All pushers of lies too. Their time is up.

      Then we can grow greens and beans in peace until the lights go out.

  9. postkey says:

    ‘We’ have ten years?

    “ . . . our best estimate is that the net energy
    33:33 per barrel available for the global
    33:36 economy was about eight percent
    33:38 and that in over the next few years it
    33:42 will go down to zero percent
    33:44 uh best estimate at the moment is that
    33:46 actually the
    33:47 per average barrel of sweet crude
    33:51 uh we had the zero percent around 2022
    33:56 but there are ways and means of
    33:58 extending that so to be on the safe side
    34:00 here on our diagram
    34:02 we say that zero percent is definitely
    34:05 around 2030 . . .
    34:43 need net energy from oil and [if] it goes
    34:46 down to zero
    34:48 uh well we have collapsed not just
    34:50 collapse of the oil industry
    34:52 we have collapsed globally of the global
    34:54 industrial civilization this is what we
    34:56 are looking at at the moment . . . “

    • The problem is that if oil goes down, the whole system goes down. In fact, we seem to already be past peak oil. I think we are also past peak coal. We likely are past peak fossil fuels as well.

    • Nehemiah says:

      The problem with his analysis, totally aside from the question of whether he is accurately forecasting when the EROI of oil will drop to zero, is his assumption that oil availability is determined by the EROI of oil when it is actually the EROI of the total energy system that is critical. If total EROI remains high enough for a while, and if liquid fuels sell at a premium to other energy sources because of liquid fuels’ special qualities, then liquid fuels can continue to be produced even at an EROI of 1 or zero or negative.

      But can oil prices rise higher? Sure they can. In 1980, the federal minimum wage was $3.10 and oil cost $37.42 a barrel (which would be $117.30 in today’s money), about 12 times the federal minimum wage. In 2019 (the latest year I have found complete data for), while the federal minimum wage was $7.25 an hour, oil sold for $50.46 a barrel, or 7 times the federal minimum wage. So can people afford to pay more for gasoline, diesel, and heating oil? Sure they can. Will paying more also disrupt the economy? Also yes, but it seems to be the suddenness of the price spike that causes the disruption. Adjusted for inflation, oil would still have been selling over $70 a barrel in 1983 and 1984 when the US was in the midst of vigorous economic recovering following the previous deep recession.

      But even this analysis understates how much more we can afford to pay for oil–and people will still by fuel even during a recession or depression, just less of it. The upper limit on how high oil prices can go before sales plummet to zero due to unaffordability is determined not by the incomes of the poorest buyers among us, but by the incomes of the richest buyers among us, which are governments and corporations. If production is below what the markets taken as a whole (not minimum wage earners) want to buy and can afford to buy, then prices will be bid up until the poorest buyers are priced out of the market, regardless of whether the government chooses to subsidize the fuel costs of the poor or let them freeze in the dark.

      Yet even that is not the whole story. Let us imagine that in a 10 year period post-peak, oil production were to fall by half, and prices were to double. (In reality, they might much more than double, but let’s keep the math simple.) If the Smith household can afford $200 a month for liquid fuels and no more, a doubling of prices does not mean that their liquid fuel purchases would drop to zero. It means they would still spend $200 a month on liquid fuels, but would get only half the amount of fuel for their money (or they would eat less so they could still afford gasoline, or make other tradeoffs). The industry will not care that their sales of the product fall by 50% in a decade, because their production has also fallen by 50% (because that is all they can produce) and they are selling all of it. With less oil produced, prices must rise in order to allocate most of the resource to those most able and willing to pay. Conversely, in a glut, often resulting from reduced economic activity, producers cannot sell all they are producing unless they are willing to accept lower prices. These essential trade offs will function post peak as well as pre peak.

      • Nehemiah says:

        I typed: ” If production is below what the markets taken as a whole (not minimum wage earners) want to buy and can afford to buy, then prices will be bid up until the poorest buyers are priced out of the market, regardless of whether the government chooses to subsidize the fuel costs of the poor or let them freeze in the dark.”

        I MEANT to type: If production is below what the markets taken as a whole (not minimum wage earners) want to buy and can afford to buy, then prices will be bid up until the RICHEST buyers are priced out of the market, regardless of whether the government chooses to subsidize the fuel costs of the poor or let them freeze in the dark.

        Sorry I did not proofread more carefully before I hit send.

        • postkey says:

          Thanks for your interesting comments.

        • Kowalainen says:

          Yup, if cheap crap gets too expensive to produce. Two things can happen.

          1. The cheap crap gets priced higher, becoming mere crap, or
          2. Neither cheap nor crap is produced

          The endgame for the debt fest will be perpetual guvmint bonds. When the useless eater horde (in guvmint and their precious “clients”) finally have depleted all possibilities to indebt the state even more, a default will naturally occur. It will occur anyhow due to depletion dynamics. Shit gets more expensive and people poorer as in 1. and 2.

          If the bond buyer is smart, he or she will demand collateral in the form of natural resources or power production facilities. If the country got no collateral, well, good luck trying to sell those perpetual bonds.

          Failing to hand over the collateral. Well, have a look at Venezuela. Not much fun when the credit lines to the owners gets cut and their private property abroad gets seized. Can’t buy jack shit when the owners of debt and production capability says “Nope”. In all scenarios poverty awaits for the useless eaters.

          Now, will the guvmint useless eaters cut the losses sooner or later. My guess is to the bitter endgame.

          Watch the inevitable unfold.


    • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

      Thanks 👍 postkey…very good video and interview. Steve gets slot right here and connects the dots in his other presentations. I subscribe to his youtube channel.
      In the recent one I watched they tore up the dream of windmills and solar green dream.
      nGeni Green Box Technology: Solution To Thermodynamic Oil Collapse

      Rather good exchange…the key point, though, there isn’t really enough of lead time to really change the outcome we are fscing

    • Nehemiah says:

      LOL, I’ve stayed up late listening to more of Arnoux’s spiel. I think he overestimates how fast EROI is dropping. If it were as far advanced as he thinks, we would have seen a big drop in national incomes world wide, and, at least pre-covid, that was not the case.

      Also, regardless of absolute incomes, nominal or real, and regardless of prices we would be paying for energy, those prices would be a far higher share of our total income (because of EROI decline), and that has not happened yet.

      On another note, he thinks economics is about the study of a perpetual motion machine. That is not correct. There is nothing economic theory that requires economic growth. Economics is a theory of exchange, not a theory of growth; although everyone, economist or not, desires and assumes growth today, that is because of our experiences, not because of economic theory. We think of measurable growth in consumption as normal, although for most of human existence it was not. That, however, is the fault of recency bias, not of economic theory.

      But the thing that really hurts Arnoux’s credibility in my eyes is this statement on his website:

      “Something-else” means new ways of accessing and using energy that are safe, secure, affordable, attractive, sustainable, 100% based on the direct solar influx, and profitable for all involved – replacing existing wealth (all fossil-based), mostly bound to vanish over the next 10 years under the Energy Seneca, with unprecedented new forms of sustainable prosperity and new wealth.

      Fourth Transition integrates the already available core knowledge, expertise, skills, experience & technology components that are required to address the Energy Seneca with “Something-else”, in the nick of time. Our first objective is to demonstrate what can be achieved at record speed as a “Middle Way” that is neither “business-as-usual” (BAU) nor the present, lethal, “renewables” mirage–End Quote

      Oh, yeah, that’s the ticket–unobtainium!

      He also says, “Since late 2019, we know for sure that global warming will overshoot 2ºC”

      Totally wrong. In fact, I predict right now that no one alive on earth today will ever live to see a 2 degree C increase in mean global temperature. Even warmist alarmist True Believers like Michael Mann agree with the skeptics and deniers like me that there has been no net increase in temperatures for the last 20 years. The True Believers call it “the Pause” or sometimes “the Great Pause,” sort of like the Great Pumpkin I guess, except it’s already here. Naturally, reality has totally contradicted the UN-IPCC computer models. I guess they will have to curve fit them even more, but I know how constant re-curve fitting of a non-linear system works out in the end, and I confidently project that the next version of their models will fail just as dismally.

      • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

        Whatever we collectively think, plan or do…pretty much is pointless.
        There isn’t enough of time for transition with the vastness of the human hoard. The outcome(s) are pretty much “baked in” as Gail likes to say.
        The reason for my response was this, however. Way is everyone so upset about approaches and if they are right and the other is incorrect or wrong?
        Does it really make a difference in the scheme of the unfolding?
        That’s the way things are…..

        • Nehemiah says:

          Bad decisions matter (especially if they manage to achieve backing from government/taxslaves, which seems to be every project’s goal). Bad decisions squander scarce resources (all resources are scarce except for air and sunshine) which would be better spent on downsizing in as orderly a manner as possible. Above all, we need to be relocalizing our production of essential goods even if we must pay more for them.

          Cities need to start scaling down until they are small enough to be fed with local food production (close enough to be imported with horse drawn carts from small farms without access to high levels of fertilizer and pesticides), plus grains that may be transported via waterways. Horses or oxen cannot transport food a great distance overland, because they have to be fed too. Inland cities such as Atlanta, Dallas, Phoenix, Denver (inland *and* high altitude), and Las Vegas (inland *and* desertified) are unsustainably large and will have to downsize drastically.

          Mountainous regions require far more energy to traverse than plains. We scarcely notice it with our internal combustion engines and fossil fuels, but it is the primary reason these areas have traditionally lagged the surrounding areas both economically and in terms of cultural change. On the other hand, if we are ever faced with a situation involving teeming hoards of desperate refugees from the cities, there will not be many of them to deal with in mountainous regions, since they will prefer to follow flatter terrain.

      • postkey says:

        “Even warmist alarmist True Believers like Michael Mann agree with the skeptics and deniers like me that there has been no net increase in temperatures for the last 20 years. ”

        I would be interested in a quote from M.M. stating that: “there has been no net increase in temperatures for the last 20 years. “

  10. Kowalainen says:

    Any cigarette smoking trashy intelligence “community” operators racing OFW? Got some bad news for you:

    “GCHQ is already heavily involved in AI-related projects. Although the organization will not disclose the exact details of its use of the technology.”

    Yeah, get a proper job. Fools. 🤣👍

    • Kowalainen says:

      racing = reading.

    • Xabier says:

      GCHQ is most sinister, but will as you say either become redundant to AI or the whole thing will just collapse on top of them in the final catastrophic collapse.

      And good riddance to them.

      But oh, they are incompetent: the planted pro-Vax, pro-lockdowns, comments on Youtube stick out like a sore thumb – but that, I suppose, may be army ‘intelligence’ (so funny) officers trying to steer the public.

    • Robert Firth says:

      While working for the MoD I visited GCHQ. They struck me as good, intelligent, and competent people. Their main mission was to research threats to military C3I and propose countermeasures. Their covert mission (politically covert) was to advise, quietly, when our own plans had serious or fatal flaws.

      One issue I remember was “stealth” technology. Solution: build or acquire, at great expense, our own stealth aircraft. Bad idea. The advantage of stealth is you can’t be seen. The disadvantage is that a stealth design is inferior in actual performance to a “damn the torpedoes” non stealth design. The far cheaper approach, then, is to break the stealth technology and recover air superiority at a stroke.

      • Kowalainen says:

        Right, I’m sure there are some clever young lads there. I was mostly thinking of the trash that get tasked with the dirty work. You know, the easily disposable loonies.

        • Xabier says:

          Unfortunately, the military easily turn into loonies, and should not be allowed near matters of public order,etc.

          The history of military intelligence catastrophes is ample.

          And ‘ant-vaxxers’ in the UK are already been investigated and listed as a ‘national security threat’, God help us!

          But I am in a profoundly anti-Establishment mood at present, for some reason. Damn them all.

  11. Kowalainen says:

    Earth is becoming inhabitable, ok, fair enough. Yay, let’s go to Mars. 🤪👍

    “Mars Is a Hellhole Colonizing the red planet is a ridiculous way to help humanity.”

    Oh, daym, perhaps no then. 😭👎

    • Mars is ridiculous. Even colonizing the moon is absurd.

    • Tim Groves says:

      Or, as Bernie Taupin wrote,

      “Mars ain’t the kind of place to raise your kids. In fact it’s cold as hell…..”

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        “Mars ain’t the kind of place to raise your kids
        In fact it’s cold as hell”

        and then…

        one of those classic lines which Taupin is infamous for:

        “And there’s no one there to raise them if you did”

        bloody ‘ell, Elton couldn’t write anything better?

        • Tim Groves says:

          The first line runs “She packed my bags last night pre-flight,” but I hear it as “I crapped my pants last night three times.”

          Probably because that’s what I would do if I was scheduled to go up in a rocket the next morning.

    • Ed says:

      We choose to go to the Moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard; because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one we intend to win, and the others, too. JFK

      I agree a Mars colony will do nothing for the quality of life on Earth, that only a trivial number of people will go from Earth to Mars. Never the less it will be nice to have a backup for the human race. Go Elon!

      • Kowalainen says:

        The backup plan is called “protect the biosphere at all costs”.

        All nukes on earth should be placed in orbit or on the moon. If any large piece of space rock comes too close – blow it up with a hail of nukes. Or at least shift the orbit out of harms way.

        Pointing nukes at each other in the biosphere is such a stupid idea. Aren’t we past the bananas Cold War by now? Just build that railway across Bering strait and shake hands with Xi and Putin. Didn’t we already start moving East? Why not continue to its logical conclusion?

        The MIC should busy itself with space threats instead of dropping ordnance at “rebels”. Triple the budget. At least one launch with hefty gear every second day. Side bonus. Try taking out missile silos with hypersonic missiles when they are empty.

        • Bei Dawei says:

          “If any large piece of space rock comes too close – blow it up with a hail of nukes.”

          Uh, that probably wouldn’t work.

          • Kowalainen says:

            It depends on the size. Large enough space rock that evades detection and nukes for sure won’t make any difference. If detected early enough. Let’s say a few hundred (thousand) asymmetrically built Tsar bomba sized devices could boil off material from the surface of the asteroid shifting its path as a makeshift nuclear propulsion system.

            “The direct methods, such as nuclear explosives, or kinetic impactors, rapidly intercept the bolide’s path.”

            Or simply just equip a rather large asteroid with propulsion putting it in earth orbit. If some threat is detected, send it off as an impactor. Just about any amount of “stuff” in orbit could do just that, hence tripling the MIC budget for space warfare. One launch from earth every second day.

          • Robert Firth says:

            Alternatively, send the nukes back in time 65 million years and save the dinosaurs. They took far better care of the Earth than we have, and for far longer.

        • Tsubion says:

          Bei Dawei said…

          Uh, that probably wouldn’t work.

          And I’ll add… a nuke would barely scratch an asteroid. IIRC the latest madness on that topic involved space mirrors to heat one side of an incoming object to change its course.

          So… who’s building the space mirrors?

          • Kowalainen says:

            It depends on the size and time to impact. The faster the nukes get there, the better.

            Denying this fact is mere dimwitted.

            • Tsubion says:

              Have you actually done this in practice?

              I’m done with hypothesis and mathematical models of what could possibly be in some future that we may not even witness.

              It’s like talking about space solar and asteroid mining.

            • Kowalainen says:

              Have you actually built an airplane in practice?

              Right some yahoo “engineer” nerd already did that to prove a point.

              Now, do we zip around in the skies at ridiculous speed cramped in huge aluminium cylinders with attached wings or not?

              At least 10 orbital launches every day. Sorry about the 3 launches every second day. That was a mistake.

              Nuke the FSCK out of inbound asteroids.

    • Xabier says:

      It would depend, surely, upon who exactly the selected colonists are. One way ticket……

  12. adonis says:

    The Bank of England has given banks and building societies in the UK six months to prepare for the possible introduction of negative interest rates for the first time in its 327-year history.

    • adonis says:

      does anyone hear the can being kicked down the road negative interest rates along with the cull in pop numbers will stave off any collapse .

    • Tsubion says:

      We have six months?

      That’s splendid news!

      How negative interest rates works for banks beyond that is beyond me. Maybe as palliative care for a dying society… perhaps?

      • geno mir says:

        My network is of the opinion that the rough ride begins late april/early May. So maybe we have half of six months.

        • Tsubion says:

          OK. Gotta move fast then!!

          • geno mir says:

            I have lived through Collapse and reset. I am from Eastern European country which went through total collapse in the 90s and was reseted after that. You can’t prepare for the Collapse in no other way except mentally. All physical preparations are just exersice in futility.

            • Nehemiah says:

              However, your collapse was temporary, the result of rapid economic reconfiguration in a country that could integrate itself into the still expanding global economy. That is far different from a collapse caused by falling energy supplies resulting from resource depletion. In the latter case, collapse becomes a way of life, drawn out over decades and with no realistic chance of recovery, just downward adjustment.

            • Tsubion says:


              Nicely summarised!

            • Fast Eddy says:

              And that was the lite version….

        • Thierry says:

          I have the same information, should be May but could have been March too. Some people wanted to go faster but the West was not ready yet (it takes time with the vaxeens!)

          • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

            okay March and April look good to go.

            (though my informants tell me that the centre will hold until 2025.)

            QBAU in The Core, baby!

        • JesseJames says:

          If you live in Lebanon or Syria, or many other nations you are experiencing collapse as we speak.

    • It is easy to believe that some radical step, such as negative interest rates, will be needed within six months. This announcement is for the UK. The UK is in worse shape than a lot of other places.

    • MM says:

      Negative rates sounds like a good idea to get the economy going with big ticket items. Will work but in the short run. When the people have spent what they have, there will be no more to spend on. We will see.

  13. Highly recommend everyone watch this documentary:

  14. Fast Eddy says:

    I’m thinking this is fake news… and it is part of Operation Compassionate Extinction:


    It works like this … the government needs to encourage people to take the Lethal Injection … they can use blunt tools like massive fines, shock and fear headlines, covidiocy passports and so on …

    But this is a much more subtle tool —- LOOK — here is someone who just risked his high paying job — to cheat and fly overseas to get the coveted vaccine!

    And everyone – even really intelligent people — will read this and will feel FOMO and rush to the vaxx centre (death camp) to be injected….

    But because Fast has a 700IQ (on a bad day)… and I just had a 20 minute nap followed by a double shot of coffee — which raises me above 1000 — Fast is able to see through this clever trick (I suspect that Fast is one of a handful of people on the entire planet that might pick this up .. Tim is likely one of the few others)….

    I am thinking this fella has been offered a fat cat job at Goldman or JP… as a reward for his services rendered… but we’ll of course NEVER hear about where he surfaces after wintering for a few months in the Bahamas on an all expenses paid luxury vacation courtesy of The Elders.

    • Xabier says:

      I can’t wait to get my vaccination letter: I’ll feel so very special and lucky. The gift of Hope, the gift of Life! 2021, the year we get our freedoms back!

      • Tsubion says:


      • Yorchichan says:

        Why not write back in order that you can receive your informed consent. Ask for:

        1) The name of the vaccine they propose injecting you with;

        2) A full list of vaccine ingredients and the function of each ingredient;

        3) Full details of all safety trials and all the raw unadulterated data from the safety trials;

        5) Your chance of contracting covid-19 and chance of dying if you do so;

        6) All possible adverse events associated with the vaccine and the probability of each;

        7) How the manufacturer overcame the problem of antibody dependent enhancement that has previously been seen in all other attempted coronavirus vaccine developments;

        8) Why, if the vaccine is considered safe, it is necessary to indemnify the manufacturer against all harm caused by the vaccine;

        9) A signed letter from your doctor accepting responsibility for any damage done to you by the vaccine.

        Plus anything else you can think of. I doubt you will receive a reply anyway.

      • Kowalainen says:

        Freedoms one jab at a time.

        💉😷 💉🤒 ➡️ ⚰️ 🆓


    • Tim Groves says:

      I am well past peak IQ now, although it’s still in three digits on a good day after lunchtime. And for me too, a couple of cups of cappuccino or espresso makes all the difference, as does a good walk.

      This evening I’ve been reading a post from two weeks ago about the development of mRNA technology by Ric Werme, who occasionally publishes at WUWT. This author praised the developers, and also confided that he had taken his first shot of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. The article is a good source of info on “the backstory”, but I was gripped by the comments, where several people who were very skeptical of the advantages and wary of the potential dangers of taking this experimental therapy too turns at attacking Ric’s endorsement and warning that we don’t know what kind of havoc mRNA might wreak on the immune system over the longer term.

      In the mostly polite exchange of opinions, Ric reassuringly explained that the mRNA was selected precisely because it doesn’t last very long. It gets injected into the muscle, gets into some cells, gets them to make the spike protein from the dreaded virus so that the immune system can get some practice at identifying and destroying it, and then after a few days or a couple of weeks the mRNA dissolves, like it was never there.

      All this reassured me — for about two seconds — before I was hit by the question: If the idea is to introduce a spike protein for the immune system to take aim at, then why not just synthesize the said protein and inject that, rather than getting the human body’s own cells to do that? I’m sure there has to be a good answer to that, and I’m sure the mRNA-programmed protein manufacturing cells will turn off and everything will be hunky door. It has to if Duncan and Norman are to have any chance of surviving in de-facto human form!


      Also on my travels I came across the sad story of Sara Stickles, a 28-year-old healthcare worker who has died from a brain aneurysm five days after receiving the second dose of the Pfizer mRNA shot. If she’d been hit by a bus, I would agree that would have been an unhappy coincidence. But a brain aneurysm….?


      • Ed says:

        Somewhere I read the vax can spike blood pressure upward could explain brain aneurysm.

      • Robert Firth says:

        The Pfizer chemical is not a vaccine. It is a virus. It does exactly what a natural virus does: invades your cells and reprograms them to generate different chemicals. Being RNA based, it can also mutate in unpredictable ways; hence the need to store it at very low temperature. The gamble is that it will be warmed up and injected before it can mutate. You are betting your life on that gamble.

        • racoon#9.5meg says:

          If the MRNA whatzit can mutate once its warm why cant it mutate once its injected?

          • Robert Firth says:

            It can. The theory (unproven, of course) is that it will infect your cells rapidly and then deactivate.

        • Nehemiah says:

          But Robert, ALL vaccines are small, weakened doses of a virus. That is what makes them effective at provoking antibody formation. The idea for the smallpox vaccine was conceived in the 18th century after it was noticed that milkmaids who had contracted the related but less dangerous disease cowpox almost never got smallpox.

          • Robert Firth says:

            No, they are not. The safe vaccines are “denatured”; that is, they cannot reproduce. Live vaccines require far more extensive testing, which the current live vaccines have not been subjected to, so we have no idea how much the vaccine will reproduce after being injected, and how dangerous it might become.

      • Kowalainen says:

        Where is Duncan and Norman by the way?

        My theory is that they are tucked away in the “Calhoun apocalypse bunkers” “useful pleb” basement floor perhaps? Lowest tier, plenty of rats and moisture everywhere with a poultry 15-inch Telly so they can monitor the mayhem on the surface.

        Surely they can be that cheap and nasty?

        • Tsubion says:

          What amazing imagery you planted in my brain! probably not far from the truth.Thanks.

          • Kowalainen says:

            Right, don’t forget the absence of escapism. No internet. No Telly. Netflix gone. OFW gone. Only a few moldy Nietzsche and Malthus books. You get the idea.

            Plus daily broadcasts with uncle Bill and Klaus urging on the “survivors”. The homo apocalypse sapiens sapiens. Indeed the new population stock, ready to crank the wheel of time into over speed. Dear “chosen ones” go on to reproduce.

            I sense a bright and vivid future for mankind.


            • Xabier says:

              The Transhumanist ‘Seed’ vault has probably been most generously stocked up by Uncle Bill, Klaus & Co. for repopulation with the right kind of humanoid.

              Now, there’s an image for you……

      • bluesolent says:

        The Johnson & Jonhson’s “vaccine” introduces supposedly harmless viruses which will also infect the body cells to instruct them to manufacture the wretched spike proteins : the infected cells will then manifest the spike proteins on its surface. This method seems no different from the Pfizer “vaccine”. Echoing Tim’s question, why not introduce harmless viruses with spike proteins already built-in, a mimic of the real virus ? Going further, why not make use of weakened or neutered versions of the real virus ? Is it because the real virus is actually imaginary , as suspected by some parties ?

  15. Tom says:

    I watched this excellent interview with Dmitry Orlov:

    Orlov is always provacative in this case spot on with the motives behind this pandemic. He however believes, as does Gail, that certain areas of the world will fair better during the collapse than others. He especially likes (no surprise) Russia’s prospects with their huge fossil fuel resources and relatively small population. Orlov even thinks Russia is underpopulated and could double is population to be optimum. I remember asking Jay Hanson about this many years ago. Would Russia be the place to be during energy decline with their large oil resources and low population? He said no, we (the USA) are going to crisp them and send in Boots and Coots to re-habilitate their oil fields.

    Jay studied human nature. We are the third chimpanzee, red in tooth and claw like our relatives. We are male dominated and will readily invade and kill our competitors over scarce resources. Given that, does it make any sense that the United States with our huge nuclear arsenal will sit back and watch our reserve currency status and standard of living go down the drain with hyperinflation while Russia sits pretty with their oil reserves and maintains a reasonable standard of living for its citizens?

    Jay foresaw nuclear war as the end game of this collapse. I hope he is wrong but I fear he is right.

    • I listened to quite a bit of this video. Dmitry has a lot of good insights. He thinks that we will return to slavery, and he may be right. (Slavery is better than starving. We will call the slaves “interns.”) People are so dependent on social media now that if they lose the internet, they will have a hard time protesting.

      Dmitry talks about the population of one third of the United States wants to secede. I haven’t seen this statistic. I am probably not reading the papers/blogs that would talk about this issue. The country does tend to be very divided between Republican and Democrat, however.

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        > Nearly a third of Americans want to break up the United States into like-minded countries: Poll

        Half of Republicans in the South are ready to secede


      • Nehemiah says:

        I don’t know about other countries, but in the US our grid has become critically dependent on the internet (it is more “efficient”–read “cheaper”), so we *can’t* let the internet disappear. Lots of other stuff depends on the net these days too. It’s scary. We have doubled down on fragility.

        Secession: someday maybe, but don’t expect any serious secession movements any time soon. Orlov and some other Europeans consistently underestimate the cohesiveness of the US that exists in spite of our infighting. We will not break up any time soon for various reasons that take too long to go into in this comment.

        Even if that “one third say they want to secede” assertion turns out to be accurate, much higher numbers of Americans than that support various policies and reforms that never get put into practice. It hardly matters what the commoners want.

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        I suspect that the binary partisan divide is liable to hinder secession. Independentists may have to get support from both parties and the supporters of the local minority party are unlikely to be supportive.

        > Texas Republicans endorse legislation to allow vote on secession from US
        State’s part chairman, Allen West, is latest Republican to come out in support of declaring Texas an independent nation

        The Texas Republican party has endorsed legislation that would allow state residents to vote whether to secede from the United States.

        In a talkshow interview, the party chair, Allen West, argued that: “Texans have a right to voice their opinions on [this] critical issue.

        “I don’t understand why anyone would feel that they need to prevent people from having a voice in something that is part of the Texas constitution,” the former Florida congressman said of the Texas Referendum Independence Act. “You cannot prevent the people from having a voice.” ….


      • Xabier says:

        In much of Central Asia and the Middle East, top government, palace, and military roles were often reserved for slaves, and a nice place as a domestic slave could be much better than half-starving as a peasant farmer.

        In Iran, pretty slave girls might often actually marry into the family and have a good life (one can trace the black African blood in some Iranian and Arab faces to this day).

        The Ottoman Turks put Russians at the bottom of the list of good slaves, as they found them to be too stupid, but good for manual labour and fighting.

        I believe Greeks, Jews, Armenians,Caucasians ranked highest, being clever and quick-learners. I can’t recall exactly where Africans came in the list, but not as low as Europeans later ranked them that’s for sure.

      • Ed says:

        Social security checks and federal employee pension payments will glue the union together. Why would the US pay these to people living in a foreign government? Yes, moral obligation but the fact is there s no pile of saved money these are pay as you go and The US government will not pay as it goes to support foreigners in a foreign nation.

        • Nehemiah says:

          @Ed, the US gov already DOES pay SS and pensions to Americans living in foreign countries. Why would that change just because the country happened to be a former US possession? Since a 1960s SCOTUS decision, US has also allowed dual citizenship. However, since the 1860s, US has been adamant that no state be permitted to secede. They have proven they will kill to prevent that.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I watched about 5 minutes…

        He’s a clueless idiot…

        And he picked up the part about the US overnight issues etc…because i posted them on various blogs like this… many months ago … as part of a general summary.



        All in all, this year has seen new discoveries of nearly 8 billion barrels of oil equivalent, compared to 10 billion barrels of oil equivalent discovered last year.

        But what’s most striking is that new discoveries aren’t even close to keeping pace with the loss of conventional resources.

        According to Rystad, the current resource replacement ratio for conventional resources is only 16 percent. In other words, only one barrel out of every six consumed is being replaced with new resources.

        So not only has our pace of discovery declined, but discoveries are also in much more challenging geological venues and typically offshore, which means it could take many years just to bring new resources online.



        The economy is a surplus energy equation, not a monetary one, and growth in output (and in the global population) since the Industrial Revolution has resulted from the harnessing of ever-greater quantities of energy. But the critical relationship between energy production and the energy cost of extraction is now deteriorating so rapidly that the economy as we have known it for more than two centuries is beginning to unravel https://ftalphaville-cdn.ft.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Perfect-Storm-LR.pdf

        “The global economy was facing the worst collapse since the second world war as coronavirus began to strike in March, well before the height of the crisis, according to the latest Brookings-FT tracking index. “The index comes as the IMF prepares to hold virtual spring meetings this week, when it will release forecasts showing the deepest contraction for the global economy since the 1930s great depression. https://www.ft.com/content/9ac5eb8e-4167-4a54-9b39-dab48c29ac6c

        Fed is sharply increasing the amount of help it is providing to the financial system (source) Banks did not trust each other. Similar situation when Lehman collapsed

        Shale boss says US has passed peak oil | Financial Times Conventional oil production peaked in 2005 – we then urgently began busting up rocks and steaming out the dregs. Shale peaked in 2019.

        • Dmitry Orlov has been talking about the future collapse of economies for a very long time. I first heard him speak back in 2006. He has many insightful comments from the collapse of the government of the Soviet Union. I don’t have a problem with what Dmitry says. I am sure he and I will differ in some respects, but he is heading in the right direction.

          The issue about “discoveries” of oil is really a non-issue in my mind. We have a huge inventory of very low quality oil resources that could be developed, if only the price would rise high enough. Venezuela and Canada have a huge amount of such resources, for example. If we wanted coal, and the coal price rose incredibly high, we could extract the coal under the North Sea. It is the fact that such resources seem to be available (if only prices will rise high enough) has led to models saying that climate change is likely to be our biggest problem in the future.

    • Nehemiah says:

      Russia has a very cold climate and limited water transport. I agree with Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov of St. Petersburg that we are moving into a much cooler period of history compared with the warm and relatively benign 20th century. And without abundant liquid fuels, water transport becomes vastly more important. (Russia has oil, but it is very close to peak by its own admission, unless its prospective Bazemov basin fracking operations pan out.)

  16. George says:

    Hello Gail,

    I was wondering if you had an opinion about the two things:
    Which regions of the world do you think are going to fall apart first?
    Is Asia (East Asia) seemingly more likely to weather the incoming collapse better?



    • Fast Eddy says:


    • Nehemiah says:

      Who will fall apart first? My guess: the net food importers, or countries that need to become net food importers after The Peak.

    • I will guess that it will be pieces of today’s countries that succeed for a while longer. These pieces will probably be mostly in warmer areas of the earth and have water transport available. They may be fairly different from each other.

      Fossil fuels won’t play a big role. Look at Venezuela. It supposedly has the largest oil reserves in the world.

      I am not sure which parts will fall apart first. The ones most dependent on today’s financial system will be very much at risk, if it fails.

      • geno mir says:

        The ones who consumed the most will be the 1st to take a dirt nap. The lean ones will have bit longer timeline.

    • Ed says:

      George, good but complex question. Nations that grow their own food and supply their own energy and manufacture their own goods will fair better.

      In East Asia, Australia will do well they have food and energy, not clear how much manufacturing they do. New Guinea has food and uses little energy and uses little manufactured items. They will do well at their self selected low industry level. If Japan would take nuclear power seriously and install 200GW more they would have a chance but they will not. Nations full of people just waiting to die will not under take massive building projects, Japan, US, EU.

    • Bei Dawei says:

      Can I pick Venezuela? Hey, we should run this like a dead pool!

    • The study needs to be published.

      There was a recent article saying that Slovakia was not having success with ivermectin. There are no doubt many tricks to using ivermectin with success, so it may not be the drug itself, but the way it is given that is the problem there.

  17. Mirror on the wall says:

    The EU is going for UK trading houses; UK cries ‘You can’t!’

    > Bank of England chief Andrew Bailey warns the EU against ‘serious escalation’ of post-Brexit row over City firms, warning that its attempts to force them to relocate in the eurozone would be of ‘dubious legality’

    The Bank of England governor lashed out at the EU today, suggesting it could be breaking the law by attempting to force City firms to relocate to the eurozone in order to keep trading within the bloc.

    Andrew Bailey said that a row with Brussels over ‘equivalence’ rules for financial service masked a resurgence of a ‘location policy’ designed to weaken a powerhouse of the UK economy.

    He addressed MPs on the Treasury Committee this afternoon, days after it was revealed Europe’s top banks are being asked to justify why they should not have to shift clearing of euro-denominated derivatives worth billions of euros from London to the EU.

    December’s Brexit deal did not include an agreement on financial services including clearing house trade in euros on the London Stock Exchange that amounts to more than £150billion every day.

    Last November Rishi Sunak unilaterally allow financial services firms from the EU to do business in post-Brexit Britain and bemoaned the failure of the EU to strike a similar deal for the City since 2016.

    Mr Bailey said the EU had first suggested a location policy when the euro currency was launched in 1999, but ‘Brexit has obviously been in a sense a stimulus to revive this debate’.

    …. Brussels has given LCH permission to continue clearing euro trades for EU firms until mid-2022, providing time for banks to shift positions from London to the bloc.


    • Mirror on the wall says:

      Macron says ‘Non! Non! Up yours!’

      > When Emmanuel Macron, French president, was asked this month by the FT if he was in favour of Brussels granting “equivalence” to UK financial services rules, he replied simply: “Not at all. I am completely against.”

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      Of course the UK state would _never_ tolerate terrorists – except for the ones that it finds useful. Hey, organised British capital needs a helping hand, even a red one.

      > Arlene Foster meets loyalist paramilitary representatives over Brexit protocol

      DUP leader Arlene Foster, along with deputy leader Nigel Dodds and East Belfast MP Gavin Robinson, have met a representative group for loyalist paramilitaries over the Northern Ireland Protocol.

      A party spokesman said they discussed opposition to the protocol within the community with the Loyalist Communities Council.

      “We listened to the views expressed and the need for political and constitutional methods to safeguard the United Kingdom single market and ensure there is an unfettered flow of trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland,” he said.

      The Loyalist Communities Council represents groups including the UVF, UDA and Red Hand Commando.


  18. Reminder – Gates to Trump: Do not investigate vaccine safety

    • This is what the CDC says it does to ensure vaccine safety.

      It says:

      Vaccine Development
      Vaccine development begins in the laboratory before any tests in animals or humans are done. If laboratory tests show that a vaccine has potential, it is usually tested in animals. If a vaccine is safe in animals, and studies suggest that it will be safe in people, clinical trials with volunteers are next.

      Clinical Trials
      Typically, there are three phases of clinical trials. Vaccines that are being developed for children are first tested in adults. FDA sets guidelines for the three phases of clinical trials to ensure the safety of the volunteers.

      Phase 1 clinical trials focus on safety and include 20–100 healthy volunteers. In Phase 1, scientists begin to learn how the size of the dose may be related to side effects. If possible at this early stage, scientists also try to learn how effective the vaccine may be.

      If no serious side effects are found in Phase 1, next is Phase 2, which involves several hundred volunteers. This phase includes studies that may provide additional information on common short-term side effects and how the size of the dose relates to immune response.

      In Phase 3 studies, hundreds or thousands of volunteers participate.

      It seems like steps (animal trials in particular) were missed with COVID-19 vaccines. Also, there doesn’t seem to be any provision for long term follow-up with respect to adverse effects. The document does go on to talk about the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System. If the events start occurring months or years later, there could be a real problem.

      • Xabier says:

        Dr Sam Bailey made a video a few weeks ago setting out how drug and vaccine trials usually work, thereby indirectly criticising what has been done- or rather not done! – in this present case.

        A friend who is a leading transplant surgeon and researcher has suggested that one would be well advised not to touch any of these vaccines until about 5 years or so have passed, as potential dangers are unquantifiable due to the accelerated development and deployment. Serious problems, if any, should emerge in that time-frame.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I suspect there were lengthy animal trials… that we are not being told about … and I suspect that all the animals died within a year of taking the vaccine.

        The vaccine passed with flying colours

      • Nehemiah says:

        The critical Phase 3 trials have not yet been conducted. The FDA has allowed it for temporary emergency use to save time. It’s still experimental.

      • Tim Groves says:

        From the 2/18/2021 release of VAERS data:

        Found 1,095 cases where Vaccine targets COVID-19 (COVID19) and Patient Died

        First on the list:

        AERS ID: 909095 (history)
        Form: Version 2.0
        Age: 66.0
        Sex: Male
        Location: Colorado

        Vaccinated: 2020-12-23
        Onset: 2020-12-25
        Days after vaccination: 2
        Submitted: 0000-00-00
        Entered: 2020-12-25


        Administered by: Senior Living Purchased by: ?
        Symptoms: Foaming at mouth, Pain in extremity, Pallor, Pulse absent, Respiratory arrest, Somnolence, Unresponsive to stimuli

        SMQs:, Anaphylactic reaction (broad), Hyperglycaemia/new onset diabetes mellitus (broad), Neuroleptic malignant syndrome (broad), Anticholinergic syndrome (broad), Shock-associated circulatory or cardiac conditions (excl torsade de pointes) (narrow), Dementia (broad), Convulsions (broad), Oropharyngeal conditions (excl neoplasms, infections and allergies) (narrow), Acute central respiratory depression (narrow), Guillain-Barre syndrome (broad), Noninfectious encephalitis (broad), Noninfectious encephalopathy/delirium (broad), Noninfectious meningitis (broad), Hypotonic-hyporesponsive episode (broad), Generalised convulsive seizures following immunisation (broad), Hypersensitivity (broad), Respiratory failure (narrow), Tendinopathies and ligament disorders (broad), Hypoglycaemia (broad)
        Life Threatening? No
        Birth Defect? No
        Died? Yes
        Date died: 2020-12-25
        Days after onset: 0


  19. Jimothy says:

    Some have made claims that the mRNA vaccines will compromise our immune systems. Can you please link what sources you’re using? A friend would like to investigate

    • This is a link to a Time magazine article about mRNA vaccines.


      It describes how regular vaccines are made. It then says:

      The plague year of 2020 will be remembered as the time when these traditional vaccines were supplanted by something fundamentally new: genetic vaccines, which deliver a gene or piece of genetic code into human cells. The genetic instructions then cause the cells to produce, on their own, safe components of the target virus in order to stimulate the patient’s immune system.

      It then goes on on to describe this process further.

      The issues is whether these “safe components” are really safe, for the long term. Also, there is no “off switch” for producing these supposedly safe components. We have not tested the results in humans for any long period.

      This is an article that talks about concerns that these “safe components” aren’t really safe.


      It is called Vaccine-Induced Spike Antibodies: Havoc on the Lungs

      This information is with respect to an earlier vaccine against the old SARS illness that was being tested on animals. The current mRNA vaccines have not been tested on animals, as far as I know.

      This is an academic article that says sort of the same thing as the previous link:


      Anti–spike IgG causes severe acute lung injury by skewing macrophage responses during acute SARS-CoV infection

      This is a video by Dr. Sherri Tenpenny that I thought was very good at explaining some of the issues:


      Dr. Judy Mikovitz is well known. She has worked in vaccine research for many years and has crossed paths with Anthony Fauci many times over that period. She has strong feelings on why the vaccine is a problem. She lists a large number of potential issues with the vaccine.


  20. FUKUSKAMRZ says:

    It is hoped that Brent Oil will trade at ($150/bbl) by the end of 2021 and Henry Hub Natural Gas will hit ($25/decatherm) by the end of 2021. Those “high” prices will make for some good propaganda!

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      spikes like that in only 10 months would surely mean that the world had experienced another black swan.

    • Nehemiah says:

      Investor Stephen Leeb, based on his historical research, claims that every time the price of oil has risen 80% in a 12 month period, that a recession has followed a short time later (although I do not remember the exact time frame).

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        recessions have been reduced to very minor worries, for those who understand the OFW storyline.

        • Nehemiah says:

          The Great Depression was just a severe recession, but the word recession did not yet exist in economics. Such events were described as Panics or Crises, but the Hoover administration felt such language was too alarmist. Scaring people might make it worse, they thought, so they told people the economy was merely “depressed.” After the economic “depression” was over, no politician ever wanted to use the word “depression” again, so the word recession began to be used.

          • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

            cool, thanks.

            very soon, most years will be recessions with possibly an occasional rare rebound year of economic growth.

            the new normal.

            • Tsubion says:


              What will provide rebound of economic growth in your opinion?

            • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

              when one year has a terrible plunge, like 2020, then there is a good chance that the next year will have a partial recovery, which technically is “growth”.

              these kinds of retracements happen all the time in smaller ways.

              2021 will probably have such a partial recovery.

              there is still plenty of FF energy flowing through the system, though less net (surplus) energy year by year.

              an overall downward economic slope is guaranteed, though it’s very likely to be a bumpy slope, just as the 20th century growth was not uniformly smooth on the way up.

            • Nehemiah says:

              The business cycle has 3 phases: expansion, recession, and recovery, before returning to recession. A severe contraction can be followed by a period of growth, but perhaps the growth will no longer bring the GDP up to where it was before, that is, it may never make it into the expansion phase before it slumps back down into another recession. So we might still get recoveries, maybe even some vigorous recoveries, after recessions, but no net new growth because the economy will turn back down too soon. Think about a drowning diver who tries to swim back to the surface, but doesn’t quite make it that far, except that in economics that pattern may happen again and again until we finally reach a steady state energy economy.

            • Nehemiah says:

              I wrote: “expansion, recession, and recovery, before returning to recession”–Oops, I meant:

              “expansion, recession, and recovery, before returning to EXPANSION”

              Recession on my mind I guess. Or my mind is receding, who knows?

            • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:


              and, any graphs of the past 20 years or 100 years etc that show growth and recessions will have a pattern of mostly thin lines for the recessions within the thick periods of growth.

              this pattern is now ending.

              perhaps there will be roughly equal years of growth and recession for a decade or so, but soon enough it will be nearly continuous recession.

              this is guaranteed by diminishing returns, and especially the diminishing returns of FF, which is providing less net (surplus) energy year after year from now until the end of IC.

            • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

              oh okay.

              but I do think it will soon enough become a pattern of recession and partial recovery followed by more recession, with little chance of actual expansion squeezing in between.

              but I am repeating myself.

            • Nehemiah says:

              @davidinamonth, Your thesis is eminently logical and justified by elementary physical science. GDP growth or national income growth (real growth, not inflation) requires growth in the production of goods and services (you can’t consume goods that are not produced), and producing goods and services requires work, and work requires energy because energy is, by definition, “the ability to do work.” But with less energy available to the economy, less work can be done, and therefore fewer goods and services can be produced–the very definition of a recession.

  21. Ivan says:


    Great article as usual, thanks much!

    In one of your first paragraphs you state “Consumers decide on what to buy, based upon what their spendable income is and what their needs are.”

    I would suggest a modified version: “Consumers decide on what to buy, based upon what their spendable income and access to debt are, and what their needs (both actual and perceived) and desires are.”

    • I agree that that would be better. I didn’t want to bring up the debt issue that early.

      At one time, people tried not to go into debt. “A penny saved is a penny earned.” Then, about 1981, “leverage” became a good thing.

      • Craig says:

        True – then no more being paid each week in cash in envelopes, electronic transactions and credit cards took over

  22. Nehemiah says:

    In 2018, the IEA’s world energy outlook report forecast that if prices did not rise enough to finance more spending on exploration and drilling (they haven’t), then by 2025 we would be looking at a HUGE shortfall between global oil production and the economy’s needs for it. When I saw the projection in their chart, my heart skipped a beat. This would pose a civilizational crisis if it actually came to pass. Okay, I found it, here it is:

    If new deposits are not produced, in just 7 years [now 5 years] from now we will find that the production is 34 Million barrels per day (Mb / d) below where it is expected that the demand will be, or about 25 Mb / d below the demand much more moderate scenario of Sustainable Development. It is a huge hole of more than 35% of all the oil that is produced today.

    In the text, the IEA warns us that there is nothing particular to worry about in this terrifying graphic because there will be exploitation of new deposits that will cover that hole to a large extent. However, they warn us, to avoid that hole we would need to find deposits with resources around 16 billion barrels each year…In short: the IEA is assuming…that production in 2025 will be lower than today’s (a deficit of 13 mbd in 2025). In essence, peak oil.”

    It isn’t likely oil companies will make up the difference In 2016, only 2.4 billion barrels were discovered (versus 9 billion on average the past 15 years). In 2017, about 7 billion new barrels were discovered. As you can see below, there’s been an alarming lack of new crude oil found.

    And it’s not just cleantechnica saying there will be oil shortages, here are some other articles about the coming oil crunch: Bloomberg, NASDAQ, oilprice.com, axios calls the shortage as by 2023, financial times also by 2023
    On page 159 of the IEA 2018 World Energy Outlook the following graph can be found:It is clear that Peak Oil will be hit well before 2020, while demand keeps on rising, unless the world’s Oil Majors and State Owned Oil Companies massively invest in new exploration.

    Graph of shortfall to 2025:

    Graph of shortfall projected to 2040:

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “… It is clear that Peak Oil will be hit well before 2020, while demand keeps on rising…”

      oil peaked in late 2019 (or was it 2018?) and due to events since then, “it is clear” that there will be nothing higher in the future.

      what is not clear is that “demand keeps on rising”.

      I think the world is past its peak net (surplus) energy, though this is difficult to measure, and so it is past its peak economic activity.

      due to this and other economic concerns, such as diminishing returns and wage disparity and out of control debt, “it is clear” to me that demand will keep on falling.

      how much of a fall and by when?

      perhaps oil demand falls enough by 2023 so that there is adequate supply, or not.

      the main point here is that both oil supply and demand will be generally falling in most future years.

      of course, if the supply falls faster by 2023, then the price will rise, and if demand falls faster the price will fall.

      no big deal either way.

      these price movements will be just temporary blips on the screen, just minor issues compared to the relentless irreversible decline of net (surplus) energy and economic activity.

      I doubt that there will be huge supply shortages by 2023 or 2025.

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        good, thanks.

        I think their demand projections are abbbsurdly high.

        • Nehemiah says:

          Have you been wasting your time listening to that shameless corporate shill Tony Seba? Peak demand is a myth. Global oil demand continues to grow except during global recessions. Demand will peak only because production peaks first, and demand cannot exceed supply. IOW, it is not possible for the market to purchase more than 100% of the available supply. Prices will rise because that is how markets ration (allocate) finite supplies. If production is falling every year, rather than selling it all and running out faster than more can be supplied, prices will rise until people are forced to use less.

          Feedbacks in the economy may create recessions that reduce consumption more than the sellers want, causing prices to drop, but prices only drop because of oil surpluses that emerge during recessions. Even if the economy were mired in permanent recession for various reasons, consumption does not drop to zero. Eventually, surpluses are worked off (especially if production is falling inexorably for reasons of geology and physics), and as available supplies fall below even depressed levels of demand, prices rise again to reduce demand to the level of the available supply.

          Prices can rise until even the wealthiest buyers (such as governments and big corporations) can no longer afford to purchase the product–or until cheaper substitutes are found, but I would not hold my breath, especially not if you are expecting the electrification of the transport system to eliminate demand for liquid fuels. Only passenger vehicles (including “light trucks”) and railroads can be electrified because of limitations inherent in any kind of battery technology, and that is only 55% of usage in the US (and probably less in many other countries). 45% of liquid fuels are for heavy trucking, ocean shipping, passenger airplanes, the armed forces, and a few other things. (In the US, railroads also use liquid fuels, which can be converted to electricity, but whether that will be a cost effective transition is debatable when all factors are considered.) And of course oil is also valuable for making plastics, asphalt for our roads, and other purposes besides liquid fuels. So demand for oil can drop only so far even if you could replace every passenger vehicle in the world with a 100% EV (which is probably not possible–oil is not the only finite resource!).

          • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

            first reply: Seba seems to be clueless about the world being past its peak of net (surplus) energy.

          • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:


            “Global oil demand continues to grow except during global recessions. Demand will peak only because production peaks first, and demand cannot exceed supply.”

            yes, and I am predicting most years ahead will be recessions, because net (surplus) energy is in an irreversible decline, and so economic activity must also decline.

            perhaps net (surplus) energy is not declining, or can increase in the future, but I think both of those are doubtful, though it’s difficult to measure.

            so my prediction is more or less just cause and effect, and not very bold at all IF indeed net (surplus) energy is in fact in permanent decline.

          • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:


            “… prices only drop because of oil surpluses that emerge during recessions. Even if the economy were mired in permanent recession for various reasons, consumption does not drop to zero.”

            yes, I mostly agree with what you are saying about prices.

            but again, I do think that recessions will be the majority of future years, so I agree that oil surpluses will emerge (and often) and prices will often feel downward pressure.

          • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:


            I agree with your thoughts on electrification.

      • A reduction in oil supply reduces demand as well as supply of goods and services. I agree with David. The IEA’s forecast for demand are absurd.

        I expect that we will likely be in a popping debt bubble. That will bring down debt, industry and jobs. Also oil prices.

        • Nehemiah says:

          Well, obviously demand cannot exceed supply in any physical sense, so the debate is rather tautological when framed in that manner. Instead of “demand” for oil in 2025, think of it more as “need” for oil in 2025. Covid has slowed things down a bit too, but not so much that we should not expect a large gap to emerge between production and the needs of the economy.

          • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

            it could also be an unfulfilled “want” for oil in 2025.

            but your view has merit, though I still expect the gap to be smaller than “the experts” think, because they are assuming no recessions through 2025, while I am expecting the next 5 years will have more recession years than growth years.

  23. Nehemiah says:

    From Gail’s article: “The US instituted Quantitative Easing (QE) at the end of 2008. QE acted to lower interest rates. With the help of QE, the price of oil gradually rose again. When the US discontinued QE in late 2014, oil prices fell.”

    “Post hoc, ergo propter hoc” is a well known logical fallacy. Prices fell in 2014 because Saudi Arabia stopped offsetting rises in shale oil extraction with production cuts in their own fields.

    Further, the Fed is entirely able to bring down rates across the board by narrowly targeting the Fed funds rate (the rate at which banks make overnight loans to each other). After bringing down the FFR by buying the very shortest term collateral, other buyers starting buying longer maturities to get the yield they want, they driving down yields all through the curve. For that purpose, QE becomes redundant.

    The aim behind QE is to induce more bank lending (which is new money creation) by giving banks more reserves with which they are required to back the new deposits that are created in the banking system by bank lending. However, it has failed–at least in Japan (for 20 years now), the US, and Europe. The experiences of some emerging market countries may be different.

    • postkey says:

      “The intention of the Bank of England’s program of quantitative easing is to increase the quantity of money by direct transactions between it and non-banks. Strange though it may sound, monetary expansion could occur even if bank lending to the private sector were contracting. In its essence the mechanism at work is very simple, that the Bank of England adds money to the bank accounts of holders of government securities to pay for these securities. . . . ”

      • Nehemiah says:

        I cannot speak for the practices of the BoE, perhaps they have conducted matters differently–or perhaps the author of the story, Tim Congdon, just has the story wrong. He seems to be either confused or disingenuous when he writes: “it must be emphasised that “the money supply” consists of deposits, not loans. The money supply and bank lending are different things.” It is irresponsible to describe matters this way without also informing his readers that deposits are created or expanded when money is loaned into existence by the banks. Banks are required to keep a certain level of reserves with which to back the new deposits created by bank lending. QE increases those reserves and thus allows the banks to increase lending under the rules that govern the banking system.

        Last year I saw a video clip of Jerome Powell himself when he was before, I seem to recall, Congress where he referred to QE as “money printing,” but challenged on the point corrected himself and described the process as I have described it in my blog comments here, and not as Mr. Congdon described it in that 2009 article for “Standpoint” magazine in the UK. Multiple other sources agree with Jerome Powell’s explanation of QE, and not with Tim Congdon’s version.

        • postkey says:

          “QE increases those reserves and thus allows the banks to increase lending under the rules that govern the banking system.”
          Chair Jerome Powell says:
          “’it interferes with the
          03:19 process of credit intermediation that
          03:22 banks undergo they take in deposits they
          03:24 lend it out ”

          “Saving does not by itself increase the deposits or ‘funds available’ for banks to lend. Indeed, viewing banks simply as intermediaries ignores the fact that, in reality in the modern economy, commercial banks are the creators of deposit money. This article explains how, rather than banks lending out deposits that are placed with them, the act of lending creates deposits — the reverse of the sequence typically described in textbooks.”
          The BIS says:
          “… we argue that the typical strong emphasis on the role of the expansion of bank reserves in discussions of unconventional monetary policies is misplaced. In our view, the effectiveness of such policies is not much affected by the extent to which they rely on bank reserves as opposed to alternative close substitutes, such as central bank short-term debt. In particular, changes in reserves associated with unconventional monetary policies do not in and of themselves loosen significantly the constraint on bank lending or act as a catalyst for inflation …
          In fact, the level of reserves hardly figures in banks’ lending decisions. The amount of credit outstanding is determined by banks’ willingness to supply loans, based on perceived risk-return trade-offs, and by the demand for those loans. The aggregate availability of bank reserves does not constrain the expansion directly.”

          “Thus it can now be said with confidence for the first time – possibly in the 5000 years’ history of banking – that it has been empirically demonstrated that each individual bank creates credit and money out of nothing, when it extends what is called a ‘bank loan’. The bank does not loan any existing money, but instead creates new money. The money supply is created as ‘fairy dust’ produced by the banks out of thin air.32 The implications are far-reaching.’ “

          • Nehemiah says:

            Re: your quote from Powell:
            Chair Jerome Powell says:
            “’it interferes with the
            03:19 process of credit intermediation that
            03:22 banks undergo they take in deposits they
            03:24 lend it out ”

            Powell in this context was then talking about negative interest rates (which he opposes), not QE.

            However, I would also say there is no evidence I am aware of that QE has any effect on bank lending under current conditions in advanced economies. The “problem” is that, regardless of how many bank reserves are available to back the deposits created by increased lending, banks still want to get repaid! That is priority number one for them.

            I am sure Powell must understand this, and the other central bankers as well, but they still value QE for its supposed psychological effect. They always make high profile announcements before they do it, or sometimes high profile announcements just to say they are standing by, just in case, ready to do it in unlimited amounts “if needed,” just to buoy the confidence of businessmen, investors, and consumers, who apparently don’t understand that QE is more show than substance.

            The Fed thinks like Keynes and FDR that “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself,” that is, they believe that fear of a recession among the public will become a self-fulfilling prophecy, thus their prioritization of maintaining public “confidence,” even if they have to do it with smoke and mirrors.

    • MM says:

      low interest brings foirward future consumption
      Payback is a bet on the creditor having an income in the future.
      More loans is a good idea in the short run but in the end someone will have to wirte it off. Anyhow, Just digibits as RE says. In the meantime we all enjoyed our last days of BAU.

    • Alex says:

      “In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve reduced the reserve requirement ratio to zero across all deposit tiers, effective March 26, 2020. This aim of this reduction was to jump-start the economy by allowing banks to use additional liquidity to lend to individuals and businesses.”

      So since March 2020, QE is not even theoretically necessary for inducing more bank lending in the U.S. Banks can lend as much as they want. Yet the Fed is QE-ing as if there’s no tomorrow…

  24. ‘Compulsory vaccination’: Moscow Communist MP takes aim at mayor for ending pensioners’ free transport until they get Covid-19 jab

    Controversial Russian Communist MP Valery Rashkin has asked the country’s General Prosecutor’s Office to investigate if Moscow is legally allowed to refuse free travel to pensioners who have not been vaccinated against Covid-19.
    Last year, the city’s Mayor Sergey Sobyanin, from the pro-Vladimir Putin United Russia party, decided to block the social cards of the elderly, forcing them to pay for travel until they get inoculated. According to Rashkin, the Communist leader in the capital, this is tantamount to compulsory vaccination.

    “The mayor’s decree violates the rights of citizens of the city of Moscow over 65 years of age to discount travel on public transport by blocking social cards,” Rashkin wrote in a letter to the General Prosecutor. “For a long time, pensioners have not been able to use public transport [making them] cut off from life, or are forced to buy a Troika card to pay their fare.”

    • The fact Russian govs are on the deal-stitch to some extent as well could be explained in several top scenarios, it will be interesting to watch how this eventually pans out..

      A/ consensual global depop-degrowth deal reached

      B/ inner faction forced depop agenda (gullible “Asians”)

      C/ “finishing off” strike (fake) unloaded on the West (“Asian” home turf + frenemies ala HU/AUT/Serbia/.. allowed using ~placebo) while the W bamboozled to stick with self immolating [A-B] aka the ultimate master plan:

      Byzantium(+) rulez past IC collapse v2.0 (again for a while)

      Place your bets, e.g. : A(50%), B(35%), C(15% )

      • Xabier says:

        China must have as much interest in disposing of their own old and lame as any other industrial state.

        Well, let them play their games. They are all mortal and will never be anything else, whatever their fantasies may be.

      • Nehemiah says:

        @worldofhanumanotg, You forgot “Possibility D:” risky and desperate decision making that has nothing to do with an alleged conspiracy to mass exterminate much of the world (an alleged conspiracy that has literally no documentation to back it–“depopulation” is not a synonym for mass extermination). These sorts of unsubstantiated and far-fetched speculations give legitimate conspiracy theorists a bad name.

        • Tsubion says:

          Legitimate conspiracy theorists!!!

          That’s a good one!

          Are they ordained like priests? Do they have a nifty little card they whipp out to prove their bona fides?

          53 million abortions every year. They don’t count as deaths. But it adds up to a few less lives.

          56 million deaths every year and that could easily be tweaked upward without too much effort. Starvation works just fine.

          I think you’re completely and utterly deluded if you think there is no documentation or planning or proof that certain agencies and science “clubs” throughout the centuries have not attempted to educate others on the need for population control and reduction. The eugenics society, mass sterilisation groups, etc are certainly soft attempts at population control


          Induced massacres (africa) (world wars) are more blatant attempts to incite groups to kill each other leading to mass death. Mostly avoidable but cannot be outruled as pop reduction methods.

          Anyone talking about humanity as a whole today inevitably gets around to the topic of “too many useless eaters.” Didn’t Kissinger and others use the phrase often?

          Up to a point, globalists and servile nation states can apply softer measures such as one child policies, sterilisation, lifestyle choices and so on. But it looks like we’re reaching the point where more urgency is required. Or we are in fact undergoing collapse and nature will efficiently take care of the rest.

          Conspiracies exist. That’s a fact. And anyone can play around with theories. Sorting out what is true and not true, what is propaganda, dogma, a psychological operation, or none of the above is the interesting game. Most people don’t care at all about such things. They have much better things to get on with such as watching tv.

          In the end, I don’t think it matters too much that some may deliberately try to control numbers of humans. These policies fall by the wayside in comparison to natural forces (Gail’s self-organising systems) and these forces of nature will probably cull the herd very effectively once a tipping point is reached.

        • Ed says:

          Nehemiah, you deserve a bit of support. Yes, sadly there is no visible humane putting down of the excess herd. It seems to be going with the standard four horsemen. We have not even seen a decent clearing out of nursing homes.

  25. Dr Isaacs End of The World Speech

    • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

      Very good…let’s fast forward many centuries …
      Dr. Zaius Was Right ….highlights of his pronouncements of the plague called Man…


      Rather well said IMO

      • Hail Caesar! One of the greatest movie speeches of all time:

        • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

          Thanks, Can’t recall seeing that one.
          Googled, sorry Jesse, list of apocalyptic films and the 1970s produced a host of great flicks!
          Omega Man, Soylent Green, Silent Running, Karma’s, Westworld,
          The Andromeda Strain and the Late Great Planet Earth


          Cool, loved the 70s, decade of my Youth! Remember the “Energy Crisis”….that was a close call….

        • Nehemiah says:

          With IQ scores in the developed world now falling slightly over a point per decade on average (the Flynn Effect can no longer hide the decline), I would say the Planet of the Apes scenario is not many generations away.

  26. UK lighthouse laboratories testing for SARS-COV-2 may have breached WHO Emergency Use Assessment and potentially violated Manufacturer Instructions for Use

    • Robert Firth says:

      Michael, vaccination with the Pfizer non vaccine seems to be associated with new “mutants” almost worldwide. I strongly suspect the issue is not correlation but causation. Remember, Pfizer has released more killer vaccines than any other company in the world. If you want to know why, look up the story of Shabbatai Zevi.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Excellent fodder for the CovIDIOTS who will now claim the old Covid mainly hit the old/dying demographic but New and Improved Covid-21 is more a young and healthy killer.

      Is it not amusing to listen to these CovIDIOTS parrot exactly what they hear on the news.

      Just because they can speak – do not assume intelligence.

      I wonder how they will react when the breaking news announces ‘people are dropping like flies because of the unanticipated side effects of the Covid vaccines…. Dr Fauci expressed sadness that tens of millions are dying each day but refused to take responsibility (credit?) … stating that ‘we had not choice — we had to release the vaccines without any testing because it was an emergency’

      • Rodster says:

        So Anthony Fauci is now spewing that tens of millions are dying each day from this BS virus? What a tool. Just keep making the lie bigger and bigger so the Covid more-ons will be screaming for their vaccine jab.

  27. Moderna boss: mRNA jabs are “rewriting the Genetic Code” we call it “information therapy”

    • Conrad says:

      I didn’t bother watching, but I did enjoy the description at the bottom: “Rewriting the Genetic Code: A Cancer Cure in the Making.” My, my, the Anointed do get a thrill by blatantly teasing us, ha ha!

      Here’s a nice clarification by the talented Nina Paley concerning what the actual cancer is on this planet:

      “The Wit & Wisdom of Cancer” — 4 minutes

      • Shambolic says:

        Nice, hard-hitting subtlety on Paley’s part concerning human overpopulation . . . too bad only about 20 of us actually took the subject seriously from 1970 on . . .

        • Nehemiah says:

          It was more than 20, but the issue fell out of favor because overpopulation concerns began to be viewed as “racist.” Also, they would logically lead to immigration restriction, and that would reduce growth in the base of environmentalists’ preferred political party. Thus, “mainstream” environmentalists now reject “Malthusianism.” Instead of advocating an unavoidable return to simplicity and poverty and de-urbanization, they have mostly reversed course and advocate more intense urbanization and alternative forms of energy that will allow us to continue “business as usual.” I think it is because, after the fall of the USSR and the Communists’ need to find an alternative strategy, there has been an ideological merger of environmentalism with Marxism, and Marxism is traditionally pro-growth and pro-industrialization.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      And the gas ovens in Auschwitz were a form of spa treatment for Jews.

  28. NomadicBeer says:

    Have you seen the latest interview with Dmitry Orlov (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cUPXYoOHiyg&feature=emb_logo&ab_channel=PieroSanGiorgio)?

    One thing that he mentioned was that the covid scare is tapped out and the western govs are looking for something else to cover up the collapse.

    That is not my impression here in US so I wonder if Dmitry looks at Russia and China (where everything is open) and does not realize that the western powers can milk this crisis for a lot longer.

    So I have two questions:
    – Is it possible that there will be stronger pushback to permanent lockdowns? I don’t see it.
    – Any ideas on what they can use next? I know they sent some smoke signals about aliens but that is not emotional enough. So will it be terrorism (of the redneck variety)? Or a nuclear threat? Or an oil crisis?

    It might just simply be direct authoritarianism with no excuses. In US for example they already do that with the military occupation of Washington DC (nobody mentions it anymore).

    • Mrs S says:

      I get the impression that the scare-mongering in the UK has lost it’s edge and people are desperate to get back to some kind of normality.

      If you read the comments in papers like The Daily Mail then it’s clear that the public will not tolerate lockdown for much longer. And they aren’t afraid anymore.

      • Minority Of One says:

        I don’t read the Daily Mail, or any other newspaper these days, but I get the impression that the Daily Mail is the only UK newspaper that it not toeing the usual pro-vaccines propaganda claptrap line. The black sheep of the MSM family if you like. Most people I know are well and truly hooked by the propaganda coming out of the govt and the BBC, sheople.

        • Cirus says:

          Try telling shepple you tyrned down the vaccine!

          • Minority Of One says:

            I won’t go out of my way, but if anyone asks I will repeat what Dr. David Martin says in his radio interview “It’s Gene Therapy, Not a Vaccine”, with respect to mRNA ‘vaccines’:

            “The problem is that in the case of Moderna and Pfizer, this is not a vaccine. This is gene therapy. It’s a chemotherapy agent that is gene therapy. It is not a vaccine. What is this doing? It’s sending a strand of synthetic RNA into the human being and is invoking within the human being, the creation of the S1 spike protein, which is a pathogen. It’s a toxin inside of human beings. This is not only not keeping you from getting sick, it’s making your body produce the thing that makes you sick.”

            “… People are getting it [CV!9 symptoms] more from the ‘vaccine’?

            Yes. You will get COVID-19 symptoms from getting the gene therapy passed off as a vaccine. You will get COVID symptoms from that 80% of the time. If you’re exposed to SARS-CoV-2 according to RT-PCR, 80% of the time, you will have no symptoms at all.

            …It’s a gene therapy technology. That’s Moderna’s own definition.”

            i.e. the mRNA gene therapies have been developed over the last 20 years or so as a cancer treatment but never released for public use because they were considered too dangerous.

            Of course, at least one vaccine available here in the UK is not of the mRNA type.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        The only way the CEP (compassionate extinction plan) goes off the rails is if the military revolts…

        Heaven help us if that happens… 8B people will be ripping faces off and roasting babies.

        It’s highly unlike the military will not obey… they’ve had obedience drilled into them and they are just as fearful as Covid as most people.

        • Tsubion says:

          They are refusing these gene therapy drugs though. They are not that stupid and still have constitutional rights. Historically speaking they have been experimented on probably more than most.

          Wait til doctors and nurses, teachers and police are all lined for their jabs. Most will end up kicking up a fuss. That’s going to really throw a spanner in the works for the drug pushers!

          • Fast Eddy says:

            The vice will tighten on those who refuse… UK is already threatening to suspend anti Covaxx doctors… that will convince many of them to take the jab… for the hard core there will likely be fines… eternal lockdowns…

            We will no doubt get a few Ted Kaczynski types featured — crazy anti-vax brain surgeons … featured on the NYT weekend magazine…

            The mockery will be epic…

            Those who resist will be few and far between… ultimately it does not matter… everyone dies.

            • Country Joe says:

              Coming to a UNVAXXED Quarantine Center near you. Maybe an UNVAXXED tattoo on your forehead.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Keep in mind, in Soviet Russia, there were a fair number of dissenters… just as there those who are not on board with this Covid nonsense… but the dissenters ended up in the gulag.

              So long as the majority remain in their CovIDIOCY… the Elders will be able to executive on the CEP …

              Let’s hope that the gerbils to not get wind of plan…

    • Mrs S says:

      Thanks for sharing. That was an interesting watch.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Orlov is obviously regurgitating Fast Eddy’s theory.

        • Well, there is a fork in the collapse theory..

          1/ Orlov assumes full gamut of zones-spheres attempting quasi autarky in terms of resources and maintain-able level of IC, and obviously areas succumbing to sheer chaos. He identifies ongoing plandemonium as merely tactical ploy to usher the reset with some bearing on the mortality rate

          2/ FE predicts fast universal depop very soon

          3/ Others see some mix – combination of these two in terms of timing and regional agendas at play

          • Tsubion says:

            I see some mix. But it gets really hard to ignore the global interconnectivity of everything in our hyper complex world. At some point… the whole thing grinds to a halt. Some will continue growing their greens and beans but only until the hordes arrive to pick their bones clean.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            And I have a 700IQ and I am right – and he is wrong.

            I also have a contact who gets it on with the wife of an Elder and she leaks bits and pieces to him that get passed to me

          • Nehemiah says:

            Orlov: I do expect decentralization to take hold as energy available to the economy declines. Some existing states will break into smaller units because it will be harder for states to maintain control. More areas than today will slide into lawlessness, or the law of the clan. Think of Somalia, or some parts of the Middle East. I do not agree that most of the current chaos and disorder is a tactical ploy. The rulers might want to temporarily destabilize particular states (such as the US effort to destabilize Syria, and, less successfully, Iran, and not successfully at all, Russia), but they do not want to destabilize the world. It is not in their interest.

            Speaking of Russia, after the fall of the USSR, I kept seeing these repeated predictions in various US publications that Russia was about to fall into civil war and break apart. It was inevitable! It never happened, yet the predictions kept cropping up for years. I was left scratching my head because this forecast had obviously not happened, did not even appear to be brewing that I could see, yet it kept getting repeated. A number of years after the press finally got embarrassed enough to stop making this failed forecast, I read in an allegedly informed (American) source that the US state department’s plan had been all along (and perhaps still is) to foment a civil war in Russia and break the country up into numerous small states, with the area around Moscow becoming just a small, landlocked mini-state, among numerous others. This way the other states of Europe would never again have to fear the Russian colossus to their east.

            FE/rapid depop: well, it depends on what one means by “rapid.” I expect the depopulation to proceed in fits and starts as the supply of energy and critical minerals declines. I’m not happy about it, but I don’t see any way to prevent it.

            The plus side: globe-spanning wars become less likely, since they require a lot of energy. Liberal cultural values, which I view as clearly dysfunctional, will fall out of favor as de-urbanization proceeds and as welfare states are gradually replaced by dependence on the extended family.

            Also, during periods when pressures are relaxed and populations can expand for a while, the strictest religions will have the fastest population growth, just as they do now. I don’t see birth control of some kind ever going away. Pandora’s box has been opened. Even something as low tech as natural family planning has gotten as effective as the pill. Most children will be born to people who really want them, and those are disproportionately found in strict religious communities.

    • Tsubion says:

      – Any ideas on what they can use next? I know they sent some smoke signals about aliens but that is not emotional enough. So will it be terrorism (of the redneck variety)? Or a nuclear threat? Or an oil crisis?

      It’s always interesting to put yourself in the hollywood scriptwriter’s shoes and conjure up the next card to play from the deck.

      Terrorist attack is kinda burned out after 9/11 but in good Tom Clancy fashion you could rework the script along the lines of homegrown “John Brown’s Army” militia retaliation for election theft etc etc.

      Not Emotional Enough!

      Hmmm… depends how you write it!

      The alien contact card has been prepped for a hundred years and yet to play that card now would require a very well crafted plot. The audience is more sophisticated in this subject matter than the deadly contagious virus theme. Thousands of hours of sci-fi and disclosure witness testimony consumed as entertainment is easier to swallow than actual science and history of viruses.

      There is certainly a plot to reveal a messianic type of alien arrival – probably a genetically engineered humanoid if you want to have an actual organic being to poke and prod.

      Holographic projection has been improving but I don’t think it would fool enough people all the time at this stage in our journey although some would willingly fall for anything just to alleviate boredom.

      Nuclear threat is fairly similar in that the fear has been maintained without actually having to reveal anything. At this point, someone would have to prove that nukes work according to the packaging instuctions otherwise it’s all smoke and mirrors (and firebombing).

      Lockdowns, restricting travel, provide cover for food shortages and other deliberate sabotage of supply chains. Shipping stops, trucks stop, power down, food riots, martial law, camps, etc until full breakdown of IC.

      One thing that people are not really commenting on has to do with the damage that will show up within a year or two from mass mask wearing for long periods of time. Neurologists have very clearly stated that millions of people especially children will show signs of brain damage and lung vessel damage as time goes by. Because it is not immediate people have been fooled into a sense of safety when wearing masks. Lowering your oxygen levels in this way causes permanent damage and even encourages cancer without the user noticing. The damage is already done in millions of people. The effects will be devastating when they arrive.

      Another scripting approach could be spiritual – either benign or malevolent. Many feel that an evil spirit has already decended on the human race and hijacked the minds and bodies of everyone (on the left!) and turned away from God and christ etc etc. Do as thou wilt – unchained liberalism – leading to arrogant narcisitic behaviour that pisses off the restrained conservatives. Eventually, the dma breaks and a civil war ensues ressulting in mas death and destruction.

      Then the real Jesus returns but there’s no one left to save.

      Bacteria inherit the earth.

      • JMS says:

        In terms of “terr0rist attacks”, certain avenues remain to be explored.
        1) North Korean agents poison the water supply systems and people start to die like flies. NK is nuked, but not before crushing Tokyo, etc..
        2) “Foreign government attack” causes an internet shutdown.
        3) Cirurgical attacks on the grid causes “temporary” blackout.

        • Tsubion says:

          2) “Foreign government attack” causes an internet shutdown.
          3) Cirurgical attacks on the grid causes “temporary” blackout.

          I agree these methods are very likely. But also self inflicted as false flags.

          Mini subs are clear and present danger now too. Used by drug cartels. I hear their is strong co-op between sinaloa, venezuela, and iran for shipping of material.

          • JMS says:

            “I agree these methods are very likely. But also self inflicted as false flags.”

            I was implying that. In fact, i believe most if not all terr0rist attacks in this century were false-flags. Terr0rism is mainly a political weapon for domestic use, as G. Sanguinetti explained about Italy in the 1970s,

            And if the deep state managed to control the narrative in relation to 9-eleven and covid (without even mentioning prevent events), they must now feel that everything is possible to them. Human credulity assures them that anything goes and the sky is the limit.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      It’s not worn off. The conditioning is now mostly complete – most people want the lethal injection .. those who refuse are being coerced… The CEP should be mostly complete by summer

    • Robert Firth says:

      The troops in Washington are not the regular military, but the National Guard, who on the whole seem more able to think for themselves and are more like traditional patriots. I suspect the oligarchs cowering behind barbed wire in the “People’s House” are in more danger with the troops present than they would be were the troops absent.

      • Kowalainen says:

        Said by a Coastal Ranger acquaintance of mine; the regular conscripts is of no worry, however, the Swedish “national guard” (hemvärnet) always gave them the chills during exercises. Nothing worse than motivated middle aged men and women taking shit seriously because vested interests in this thing called life, of which many are hunters with an interest in the military. Usually people of some dignity and principle.

  29. Julia Roberts to Present ‘Award of Courage’ to Her ‘Personal Hero’ Anthony Fauci

    “You have been a beacon for us, and so, for me it is such a great thrill to represent amfAR in presenting this to you,” said Julia Roberts, who is presenting Fauci with amfAR’s Award of Courage at the organization’s virtual “A Gala for Our Time” event on March 4, according to a report by People. “There’s just no one more deserving, and you’ve been tireless, and true for all of us, and I just want to say thank you from the bottom of my heart.”

    • Fast Eddy says:

      See how the PR team can call on famous people to add credibility to the Big Lie….

      These strategies were developed by Bernays and many levels of sophistication have been added over the years…

      Teams of psychologists have also thoroughly tested the techniques on humans making adjustments as required.

      Is it a surprise that they are so easily able to control nearly everyone? Particularly when you recognize that humans are not any smarter than a rat …. they are just able to perform more complex tricks like driving and speaking….

  30. Marco says:

    When oil price Will be 100 Will be Collapse

  31. Marco says:

    When collaps?

    • Rodster says:

      The great tribulation will have to wait another day, maybe years Marco.

      • Xabier says:

        The Great Tribulation – like Collapse itself – is already here, we are living it.

        Am rather looking forward to the Second Coming as long as it hasn’t been faked by the MIC……

    • Nehemiah says:

      @Marco, Collapse will BEGIN after world oil production (conventional and unconventional) passes its all time peak. However, it will be a drawn out process, not an instantaneous event. 50 years from now, the world’s population will be smaller and poorer.

  32. Marco says:

    Stock market very bad today

  33. Mirror on the wall says:

    Global supply chains can break down through tit for tat measures as economies turn hostile and ‘trade wars’ escalate. China also controls 98% of the export of the rare earths required in electric cars and ‘green tech’. USA is scrambling to get its ‘allies’ like Australia to produce other sources. It seems likely that hostilities will worsen collapse.

    > China targets rare earth export curbs to hobble US defence industry

    China is exploring limiting the export of rare earth minerals that are crucial for the manufacture of American F-35 fighter jets and other sophisticated weaponry, according to people involved in a government consultation.

    The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology last month proposed draft controls on the production and export of 17 rare earth minerals in China, which controls about 80 per cent of global supply.

    The Chinese move follows deteriorating Sino-US relations and an emerging technology war between the two countries. The Trump administration tried to make it harder for Chinese companies to import sensitive US technology, such as high-end semiconductors. The Biden administration has signalled that it would also restrict certain exports but would work more closely with allies.


    • Mirror on the wall says:

      Competition is heating up.

      > Biden admin suppresses China amid its claimed ‘fiercely competitive’ relations; shrinking economic gap unnerves Washington

      The recent moves by the Joe Biden administration to curb China’s economic and tech rise mirrors a “mentality collapse” among US political elites, who – having identified relations with China as one of “fierce competition” – are now sparing no efforts in the “final China push” to consolidate its edge as an early starter in the world economy.

      The US still enjoys an advantage over China in chips, new materials, software and operating systems, yet China has managed to bridge the gap or even surpass the US in 5G, new energy, aerospace, and even niche industries such as drones in the past decades. Such a drastically narrowing gap between the world’s two largest economies has further unnerved Washington, with “China threat” rhetoric resurfacing, taking a shot at the economic sphere.

      Take 5G. Starting 2015, China built the world’s largest 5G networks, with 5G base stations reaching 700,000 units to date, accounting for about 70 percent of the world’s share. That compares with 50,000 in the US, according to data as of the end of 2020 from research firm International Business Strategies.


  34. Fast Eddy says:

    The Covid Outbreak: “Biggest Health Scam of the 21st Century.” Report by 1500 Health Professionals

    By United Health Professionals, February 25 2021

    We are health professionals of the international collective : United Health Professionals, composed of more than 1,500 members (including professors of medicine, intensive care physicians and infectious disease specialists) from different countries of Europe, Africa, America, Asia and Oceania.


    • Rodster says:

      It is the biggest scam possibly ever, even bigger than Colin Powell holding up what turned out to be a bag of laundry detergent while speaking to Congress on why the USSA should invade Iraq and remove Saddam Hussein as proof he had weapons of mass destruction.

      Regardless, Big Tech will not allow this sort of dissension so the masses continued to be conditioned why this virus which has a kill rate of 0.02% (pretty much the same as seasonal flu) is not that big a deal.

      So they continue with the big lie to put fear in the masses so much so that people are willingly ready to take an unproven, rush to market chemical cocktail to ward off this virus. The bigger picture is that they can keep the fear going as they tell the dumb @sses that the new strain is even more deadly and they need more chemical cocktails in their body.

      And where does it really stop? How about when Covid BS19 has played itself out and they create another fearful virus. It will never end. It’s like agreeing to pay a ransom because it just encourages them to do it again and again.

      • Tsubion says:

        What is this virus you speak of?

        You mean the virus that has yet to be isolated and purified?

        No virus – no demonstration that the virus causes disease in human cells.

        And certainly no unique symptoms that can be attributed to a novel pathogen.

        All we have is a PCR that if cycled high enough will deliver a positive for background material that doesn’t proof the existence of a complete virus genome.

        A few base pairs does not a virus make! The missing 30,000 are modeled on a computer – in silico. Every, single, time.

        It’s time this whole industry of fraud was brought to its knees. We have been under its spell for far too long.

        • Rodster says:

          As i’ve said, it’s all BS. The fear and hysteria been manufactured and overblown. It sounds like you are in agreement with me and Fast Eddy.

          • Nehemiah says:

            When are you guys going to stop spreading disinfo by citing the most low ball numbers and discredited research you can find? Fatality rate in those infected is much higher than seasonal flu based on multiple studies, AND it is far more contagious than seasonal flu, which would lead to many more deaths even if its fatality rate were not higher than typical flu’s. And, yes, this particular coronavirus, just like the other 5 coronaviruses that infect humans, has been repeatedly isolated and its genome decoded–again, multiple times. I don’t know why we keep going over these same points. Spreading these false memes just helps the virus spread and puts more people at risk as a result.

            • Rodster says:

              I call and your raise your BS. The numbers put out by the CDC when an individual has actually died “FROM” Covid and not “with” are in line with the seasonal flu.

              The big problem is your fear mongering Covid crowd likes to lump those who died “with” and “from” Covid in the same group.

              They’ll do whatever it takes to make their numbers look good and to continue the fear, panic and hysteria.

              If Covid was such a killer than MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL players would be dying left and right. If you listen to a lot of these athletes who have tested positive for Covid they will tell you their symptoms are usually mild to moderate, you know like your typical seasonal cold or flu. They recover and they are back to normal. But your side loves to create even more fear, panic and hysteria by insinuating that those who have had Covid, have also had long term organ damage as a result. Again, panic and fear without any proof.

              And here’s how I know it’s all BS to scare the public because AGING produces “long term” organ damage. In other words your organs will fail and you will die with or without Covid as you get older.

              I’m starting to cringe every time I hear or see the words “Stay Safe” and “We’re in this together”. I’m now taking it upon myself to thank a person on the street every time I see them NOT wearing a “face diaper”.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Approximately 400 people without co-morbidities have died FROM covid in the UK…

              Everyone else was already dying from something else… a bad cold or a mild flu would have tipped them over… in the past if they died WITH the flu or a cold — the death certificate and tombstone would not be labelled Here Lies ___ He Died from a Cold

            • Fast Eddy says:

              When are you going to stop ignoring that Sweden is not in the top death in Covid deaths per capita…

              And they have not locked down or mandated face masks.


              Please ignore this as well and get your vaccine ASAP…. if I get invited I will be happy to let you jump the queue in my place 🙂


            • Tsubion says:

              You guys?


              Discredited research?

              Well well well… this should be interesting!

              Fatality rate?

              Of what?

              56 million people die every year
              most from heart disease
              medical malpractice
              respiratory diseases – mostly caused by pollution, tabaco
              50 million abortions

              what’s your point? Why not winge and whine about these major killers?

              Not the 0.003% rounding error of something going on in the background.

              Of those infected?

              Infected with what?

              A positive PCR is not proof of infection with a virus. Detection of background material amplified beyond reasonable levels to create more than 94% false positives.

              PCR is null and void accordiing to inventor Kay Mullis therefore all testing using said method is null and void. Zero positives.

              Symptomology matches regular flu and cold symptoms plus emphysema etc.

              So what? Treat with latest proven methods and done. No fuss.

              Again, these symptoms already exist. Just rebranding to create fear and drug sales.

              Based on multiple studies? Who is funding those studies?

              Far more contagious?

              Maybe in your imagination! Viral contagion has never been proven, not even measles. So you would win a nobel if you can prove this.

              Disease manifests in groups due to sympathetic effects and seasonal processes of detoxifying. Mass malnutrition events, low D3, toxic environments etc.

              You can map these very easily to Wuhan, North Italy and other high pollution areas where you will see high incidence of pneumonias etc.

              repeatedly isolated and its genome decoded

              Again debunked each and every time – the studies were not done properly following protocol and peer reviewed.

              Isolation as a term has been basterdised by these criminal frauds in order to commit fraud on a level never seen.

              Not purified – toxins in soup where virus is supposedly contained poison monkey kidney cells and that’s that. No proof of damage to human cells whatsoever.

              We have to keep going over these same points because people are still spreading lies and propaganda to unwitting souls who believe everything on tv.

              Top experts worldwide have been repeatedly censored from all media for a whole year – virologists, microbiologists, vp of Pfizer, head of diagnostic testing in spain – all calling bullcrap on this nonsense but they are NOT allowed to speak.

              But you are allowed to spread the lies of an incredibly corrupt and vile industry that should have never existed were it not for Louis Pasteur – the psycho who took the money to invent something to terrorise people with.

              More people at risk? Of what?

              Permanent damage due to low oxygen levels from mask wearing?

              Not being able to socialise with family and friends like normal human beings?

              Never trusting politicians, police, doctors, teachers ever again?

              Of living in ignorance?

              Of suffering from germophobia – a mental illness?

              There is no pandemic. The sooner you realise this the sooner you can move on with your life and prepare for real threats like societal collapse.

            • JMS says:

              Never well said, Tsubion!
              Keep going, amigo!

          • Tsubion says:

            Yes! Absolutely in agreement and sick and tired of seeing zombies walking, running, cycling and driving around with designer masks strapped tight to their face, their beady, anxious little eyes shooting lasers at anyone that dares to breathe the good old fashioned way.

            From my research, there’s a lot more rabbit hole to go down with this particular subject and millions of curious types are now alerted to it and willing to dig.

            I’m hopeful that the entire edifice of Big Pharma could collapse but then we’ve been waiting for collapse for a while around here…

            • Nehemiah says:

              Rodster wrote: “The numbers put out by the CDC when an individual has actually died “FROM” Covid and not “with” are in line with the seasonal flu. ”

              If you are going to make that qualification, then you will ALSO have to make it for those who die “with” versus “from” seasonal flu, which will drive seasonal flu death data much lower too, and thus keeping covid as a more deadly killer.

              AND you will have to make the same qualification for people who die “with” versus “from” the covid vaccine. There were very few problems in the test subjects because they were all super healthy to begin with. You will now have to start telling us how the vaccine almost never kills anyone because those who die after receiving it are really dying from “other” causes. You are forcing yourself to become a defender of the very vaccine you fear!

            • Tsubion says:


              1. I don’t need a vaccine thank you very much my immune system is at 100% you can have my doses for the next year if you so wish.

              2. I agree 100% that there’s no real way to know what people die from (other than autopsy but even then…)

              there’s a lot of false attribution going around especially in the older participants in this live experiment. But it’s understandable that people jump to conclusions when they see old age patients that were previously problem free suddenly drop like flies.

              Again, the reporting of any deaths or adverse effects from now on is going to be portrayed in different ways to different groups.

              From or with the gene therapy? Who knows. In the old you can say that they were going to die anyway. In the young, you can say that that also happens. it’s just an unfortunate rare occurence.

              The main issue remains that not one single human being on this planet requires these medical products. They have been coerced into participating in a mass experiment. We shall see the results soon enough. But some of the adverse reactions would have been prevented if that’s of any interest.