Don’t expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19

Most people seem to think that the world economy is going through a temporary disruption, caused by a novel coronavirus. As soon as COVID-19 goes away, they expect the economy will be back to normal. I think that this assessment is overly optimistic. The way I see the situation, the world economy was already having severe growth problems, caused indirectly by resource problems, even before COVID-19 hit.

In a growing world economy, a person might expect that workers would be getting richer, so that they could afford an increasing quantity of goods and services. What we really see is something very different. The number of new automobiles sold was falling in many major countries long before COVID-19 hit, even as population was generally rising. Clearly, something was seriously wrong.

Figure 1. Auto sales for selected countries, based on data of

As I see the situation, the world has a resource problem. Resources of many kinds, including fresh water, energy products, and minerals of many kinds were becoming more difficult (and expensive) to extract, even before 2020. Substitution might have worked if the problem were only one or two resources, but not with several major resources. Cutting back was the only answer.

Thus, the shutdowns for COVID-19 came at a convenient time, allowing economies that were already doing poorly to shut down. Needless to say, there was no world leader who was willing to explain this hidden issue to the world population. Instead, world leaders used standardized code words such as “we need to move to renewables” or “we need to reduce carbon use by 2050 to prevent climate change.” Unfortunately, the ability to move to alternatives in this time frame is simply an illusion, allowing world leaders to avoid mentioning the serious resource issues that the world economy is really facing.

I expect that within a few months, a new crisis of some sort (perhaps financial) will come along, further reducing resource use. This will happen, whether or not the problem of the novel coronavirus is solved. In this post, I will try to explain the situation.

[1] The world’s economy is a self-organizing system, powered by the laws of physics. It requires a mix of resources, including energy resources, to operate.

The laws of physics require that energy be “dissipated” whenever activities we associate with generating GDP take place. For example, if a person is to drive a truck, he/she will need to eat food for his/her own personal energy. This food is “dissipated” by digestion. If the truck is to transport goods, it will need to burn some type of fuel, such as diesel. This fuel is dissipated by burning. If a computer is to operate, it will need to dissipate electricity. If a room (or a liquid) is to be heated or cooled, some sort of energy dissipation will be required.

The world economy grows in a very orderly manner. It gradually adds population, as more babies are born than people die. All of these people need food and fresh water; they also need some type of housing and clothing to protect them from the elements. Ideally, they need some type of transportation in addition to walking. Businesses are formed to enable access to goods and services that fill these needs. Governments are also formed to provide services used by all and to regulate the system. A financial system is formed to facilitate transactions, among other things.

The world economy cannot slow down and quickly restart. This is especially the case for an economy that had already started slowing, even before the 2020 pandemic. If not enough resources of the right kinds were available to enable true economic growth before the pandemic, it is hard to see how the situation would be very much improved a year later.

One key to understanding how a self-organizing economy works is to understand that the economy is multi-sided. Businesses need to make an adequate profit, to continue in operation. Workers need to earn an adequate wage to raise a family. Customers need affordable prices. Shortages of inexpensive-to-extract resources can lead to many different problems: lack of profitability for producers, or too much wage disparity among workers, or too high prices for customers. Resource shortages can also lead to people with inadequate wages wanting to migrate. They can also lead to empty shelves in stores.

[2] Depleted coal mines near population centers in China have adversely affected the Chinese economy more than it tells the outside world.

China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December 2001. The Kyoto Protocol mandated that 37 industrialized nations cut their greenhouse gas emissions. More than 100 developing countries, including China and India, were exempt from the treaty. This combination of events allowed China to greatly ramp up its economy, building many new roads, factories and housing units from concrete, with little competition from the 37 industrialized economies.

China had very large coal resources, which it ramped up (Figure 2). Of course, this greatly increased world coal consumption, an effect precisely the opposite of the stated purpose of the Kyoto Protocol–to reduce world CO2 emissions.

Figure 2. World and China coal consumption, based on data of BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2020. China imported 7.4% of its coal supply in 2019, so China’s coal production would be similar, but it would hit limits a bit sooner and harder.

The problem that China ran into about 2013 was that its coal mines, especially those near population centers, began depleting. The cost of extraction started rising because the thickest coal seams, closest to the surface, were badly depleted. In theory, there was still a great deal more coal available from those mines if the price would rise sufficiently high. Coal from new mines that were more distant from population centers might also be used if the price would rise high enough to include overland transport costs.

Coal prices didn’t rise to match the higher cost of production. If they had risen, they would have raised the cost of many goods manufactured for export, making these industries less profitable. Because coal prices stayed too low for coal producers, over 70% of China’s coal companies were reported to be unprofitable by the first half of 2014.

China closed unprofitable mines and added new mines at more distant locations. China’s coal production has struggled in recent years. A constant problem has been keeping coal prices high enough to cover the rising cost of extraction and delivery to population centers. There are recent indications that coal supply is inadequate: Parts of China experienced rolling blackouts in the winter of 2020-2021, and warnings have been given to expect possible electricity shortages this summer. China has been accepting few coal imports, largely because it wants to keep its local prices sufficiently high that its own coal producers can be profitable.

China uses coal in many ways, including generating electricity, making steel, and manufacturing cement, which is the most important ingredient in concrete. Concrete is used in producing roads, bridges and buildings of all types, including high rise buildings used in many places in China.

Figure 3 shows that China’s cement production fell at a time similar to that at which coal production “flattened out.” This would not be surprising if a shortage of coal led China to cut back on its use of cement in order to save coal for electricity production.

Figure 3. Cement production for the World and China based on USGS data.

China, like other countries, has been seeing its population rise. Figure 4 shows coal and cement amounts for China on a per capita basis. This approach shows that, viewed on a per person basis, both coal consumption and concrete production have been falling since about 2013-2014. In fact, coal consumption began to fall slightly before cement production, suggesting that the fall in coal consumption is the cause of the fall in cement production.

Figure 4. Cement production from the USGS and coal consumption from BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2020, divided by population from the World Population Prospects 2019 by the United Nations.

[3] A decrease in new home building in the United States after 2008, as well as the recent difficulty in ramping construction back up again, are further evidence that the world is reaching resource limits of some kind.

Figure 5. New US privately owned single-family housing units divided by US population, multiplied by a constant. This gives a measure of per capita growth in new single-family housing units. Chart prepared by the St. Louis Federal Reserve.

Figure 5, above, shows that the number of new single-family housing units, relative to population, dropped dramatically after late 2005, early 2006. (This was when US Federal Reserve target interest rates rose, leading to higher borrowing costs for both builders and purchasers.) New home building plunged before and during the Great Recession. Building of new units has not ramped up very much, since then.

Even in 2020 and early 2021, the number of new units being started is very low by historical standards. It certainly wouldn’t be surprising if a lack of resources is part of what is depressing new home production. It may also be causing the spurt in resource prices (for example, lumber and copper) when new-home production does try to ramp up.

[4] World oil production seems to be falling for the same reason that China’s coal production stopped growing: Prices are too low for producers because of depletion issues. Oil producers cannot make an adequate profit, so they are reducing production.

Figure 6. World oil production through 2020 based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.

World crude oil production was at its highest level ever in 2018. It has fallen ever since.

Figure 7 shows that oil production has been falling in many parts of the world in recent years.

Figure 7. Crude and condensate oil production for selected areas of the world, based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.

The shining star of crude oil production, at least until recently, has been the United States with its shale oil production.

Figure 8. US crude and condensate oil production for the 48 states, Alaska, and for shale basins, based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.

Unfortunately, with low prices, US shale oil is unprofitable. Shale production fell in 2020, and indications for the year 2021 are down as well.

Worldwide, the oil industry seems to require a price of $120 per barrel or more to make investment in new production profitable, and current prices are far below this. Part of this high price is required to provide adequate tax revenue for oil exporting countries that are dependent on this revenue.

[5] Relative to population, worldwide oil and coal consumption reached its highest level in 2007. It has fallen recently.

Figure 9. World per capita energy consumption, separated between “oil + coal” and all other. Data for 2019 and prior based on BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2020. Figures for 2020 reflect percentage changes anticipated by the International Energy Agency in its Global Energy Review 2021.

Figure 9 shows that on a per capita basis, combined oil and coal consumption reached its highest level in 2007 and dipped during the Great Recession. It reached somewhat of a plateau in the 2011 to 2013 period, but started slipping in 2014 and had fallen ever since. Those who follow oil prices closely will notice that combined oil and coal consumption per capita tends to be high when oil prices are high relative to other goods; consumption tends to be low when oil prices are low. The lower per capita oil and coal consumption since 2007 would be expected to hold back the production of “goods” of many kinds, including houses, automobiles, roads and electrical transmission lines.

The “All Other” category is really not a stand-alone category. It depends on oil and coal for its pipelines and electrical transmission, among other things. Without concrete bases, it would be difficult to have wind turbines. Solar panels without steel supports wouldn’t work well either. In theory, if a huge amount of transition were done, perhaps steel and concrete could be produced in reasonable quantities with only the “All Other” types of energy, but someone would need to figure out precisely how this could be accomplished, including the timeframe required.

[6] Inadequate fresh water supplies are a problem in many parts of the world.

The standard approach to getting fresh water has been to tap underground aquifers and tap them at rates far greater than they are refreshed. In some places, this leads to saltwater intrusion; in others, it leads to a falling water table. Some examples of areas with water problems include California, Saudi Arabia, India, China, and Cuba.

There are ways to work around these problems:

  • Digging deeper wells
  • Piping fresh water from a distance, nearly always uphill
  • Desalination

Implementing any of these workarounds for water shortages takes energy of different kinds, mostly coal (to make steel) and oil (for transporting goods and extracting metal ores). These workarounds make the cost of fresh water higher. Higher water costs are especially a problem for agriculture and for poor families, struggling with budgets that cover little more than the price of food and water.

If fixes for the fresh water supply problem cannot be found, irrigation will need to be cut back. Such a change would likely lead to a fall in world food supply.

[7] We are probably kidding ourselves if we think that production of semiconductor chips can be ramped up significantly in the future.

China is now a major producer for rare earth minerals, and it is practically the only processor of rare earth minerals. Semiconductor chips are created using rare earth minerals, water and huge amounts of heat in an exceptionally clean environment. The leading producer of chips is Taiwan, using raw materials from China. There is a long lead time required for building new factories. My concern arises because of the resource issues China and the rest of the world is facing.

We use semiconductor chips in many things, including computers, cell phones, automobiles and “smart” appliances. Without a ramp up in semiconductor chip production, many high-tech dreams for the future will likely remain only dreams.

[8] With a falling supply of coal and oil per capita and inadequate fresh water in many parts of the world, we have already reached the point where some types of “optional” activities need to be cut back.

An early optional activity that was cut back on was recycling. Oil prices fell in 2014, making the recycling of many types of goods, especially plastics, non-economic because the resale value of recycled products dropped with oil prices. China cut back greatly on its recycling efforts, effective January 1, 2018. Other countries have followed suit. China’s cutbacks on recycling allowed it to save its coal supplies (which were no longer growing, see Figures 2 and 4) for other activities that had the possibility of being more profitable.

In early 2020, cutbacks associated with the pandemic gave the world economy some “breathing room” with respect to resource shortages. Cutbacks in travel left more oil for other uses. Oil prices could drop back. This was especially helpful to countries that are big importers of oil, such as those in Figure 10, below. It is not surprising that some of the countries with the biggest oil import problems have been the most enthusiastic about travel cutbacks related to COVID-19.

Figure 10. Quantity of oil imported for selected countries, calculated in barrels of oil per person per year. Oil imports determined based on data from BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2020; population is from World Population Prospects 2019 by the United Nations.

[9] The world economy has a very serious resource problem. There seem to be three different approaches to hiding the problem, none of which will really solve the problem.

The serious problem that the world economy is encountering is the fact that the supply of both coal and oil are running short, especially when viewed on a per capita basis. The world is also very short of fresh water. China is affected as much, or more than, other countries by these problems. As a result, China’s future growth prospects are likely quite low, even though few are expecting this change. Without a continued strong forward “pull” from China, the world economy may be headed for “collapse,” a condition which has affected many civilizations in the past.

There seem to be three different approaches to doing something about the world’s resource limits problem, without mentioning the nature of the real underlying problem:

[a] Develop a “fear of future climate change” story by creating models that assume we have huge amounts of fossil fuels that can be burned in the future, even though the evidence is very much the opposite: We are “running out” of coal and oil right now, but in a different way than economists have theorized (low price, rather than high price). At the same time, argue that a transition to renewables (particularly intermittent wind and solar) is possible in the next 30 years. The fact that essential minerals for such a change, including copper and lithium, are themselves in short supply relative to the incredibly large quantities required, is overlooked. No one stops to calculate the true cost, measured in energy products and other materials, required by such a transition, either.

[b] Create a “fear of the coronavirus” story, and use it to keep people inside and away from traveling as much as possible. Emphasize the possibility of mutations. If people cut back on traveling, it saves oil. If they cut back on eating out and large celebrations such as weddings, it reduces food wastage. If a pandemic takes place, politicians can use it as an excuse to mitigate problems of many kinds:

  • Reduce the need for imported oil, by keeping citizens at home
  • Keep factories closed, without disclosing that the factories could not really operate at full capacity because of inadequate orders or missing raw materials
  • Use shutdowns to keep order in areas disrupted by uprisings related to low wages
  • Hide the problem of many failing stores and businesses behind a new “temporary” problem
  • Give the politician a new sense of control with new rules related to the epidemic

It is disturbing that back in 2010, the Rockefeller Foundation was looking at using pandemics to control people when the foundation was examining possible workarounds for too large a population relative to resources.

[c] Hide the existing resource problem with more debt, to the extent possible. In fact, having a circulating coronavirus has assisted in this effort because everyone can see the need for more debt on a temporary basis, “until this problem goes away.” Of course, the resource problem is not going away, which means the world is likely headed for serious financial problems when the economy tries to ramp up again. See my post, Headed for a Collapsing Debt Bubble.

[10] My expectation is that the world economy will try to bounce back from this pandemic, but it won’t really be able to bounce back.

There really aren’t enough resources of any kind to pull the world economy much farther forward. A day of reckoning seems to be coming, probably in the next few months. The financial system looks like it is the weakest link. If the world economy dramatically slows, borrowers will not be able to repay debt with interest. There may be rapid shifts in currency relativities, disrupting derivatives markets. International trade will become less and less possible, perhaps taking place only among a few trusted partners.

We seem to be headed for a rapidly changing world economy, and unfortunately not for the better.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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3,576 Responses to Don’t expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19

  1. Fast Eddy says:

    Insights from past millennia into climatic impacts on human health and survival

    Climatic changes have affected human health and survival over long historical time. Beyond impacts of weather disasters, great undulations in the fates and fortunes of societies throughout the Holocene epoch have been associated with seemingly small but sustained climatic changes, affecting crops, livestock, epidemic outbreaks, social unrest, and conflict. There have been both good times and bad times.

    I can find a lot more if anyone is interested…. lots and lots and lots

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      The [2012] paper concludes:

      “Warming this century is not only likely to greatly exceed the Holocene’s natural multidecadal temperature fluctuations but to occur faster. Along with greater climatic variability, models project an increased geographic range and severity of droughts.

      “Modern societies, although larger, better resourced, and more interconnected than past societies, are less flexible, more infrastructure-dependent, densely populated, and hence are vulnerable. Adverse historical climate-related health experiences underscore the case for abating human-induced climate change.

      • Tim Groves says:

        They had to put that bit in there in order to qualify for grant money and achieve publication.

        • Harry McGibbs says:

          The author, who died 2014, alas, sounds like an interesting guy:

          “He… showed early evidence of independent inquiry informed by reading the works of thinkers such as Paul R. Ehrlich and Anne H. Ehrlich who questioned the capacity of the Earth to support a growing world population with increasing consumption of resources.”

      • Fast Eddy says:

        the key word ‘likely’…

        If I buy a lotto ticket I am likely to win 10M dollars….

        BTW – I have read plenty of history including multiple Great Courses on MENA civilizations… and I specifically note that in many instances GW overly literally decades — caused large swathes of previously fertile land to be abandoned….

        So this Al Gorian bullshit that ‘oh but those changes took centuries— is just bullshit’ (but MOREons believe him because they are both MOREons and ignorant).

        Let’s take another look at Leo’s Concrete Eco Resort powered by … in Belize…

        Wow… why would Leo build on that tiny spit of land?

        I heard that Al almost had a big punch up with Leo over this … Leo — WTF are you doing!!! — there a septics out there who will use this to claim burning coal is not wrecking the planet… I cannot have this! I am making millions of this scam!! And I PAID You as a spokesperson…

        And Leo said calmly — come on Al… we are dealing with MOREons… even if someone shows them photos of my Concrete ECO Scam… they’ll believe it’s Eco … because it’s an ‘ECO RESORT’ duh….. and they’ll dismiss that ocean lapping at the front door…. because they are MOREONS….

        Any blowback from this Al???

        Well no… none…

        Ok then … relax… jump on your private jet and I’ll set you up with a free week at the Concrete Eco Resort…

    • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

      Thank you Fast! Me too
      , I have lots and lots too…
      Want those about the Self reinforcing feedback loops we are currently activating in the climate system to cause runaway he?
      Oh, BTW, check out Dr Peter Wards book “Under a Green Sky”
      Gail often mentions his book here “Rare Earth,” both excellent

      • Tim Groves says:

        Herbie, seems to me that just one self-reinforcing feedback loop would boil the biosphere in short order, and that has never happened in the past three billion years,

        Conclusion so obvious even Norman can see it: Something must have prevented said boiling from happening.

        What could that something be?

        Perhaps massive negative feedback loops that most warmies are totally unaware of because they have never studied the issues in depth and they only think what they are told to think?

        Or perhaps God sends His angels down to protect us from excessive heat?

        • NomadicBeer says:

          What’s with the tribalism? “If you are not with us you are against us”

          Can we try to actually have a conversation.
          For example, we know there are many feedback loops. At the very least, objects emit radiation with the fourth power of temperature so obviously global temp increase cannot go for too long.

          That does not destroy any AGW argument, and you should know that.

          The denier logic seems to be: “because temp changes occurred in the past, that means they cannot occur now”.

          Of course the whole CC debate is just a way to waste time and avoid changing what matters, which is our own lives. It’s much easier to blame it on the FF companies or the greens, right?

          • I am not convinced that our lives can change very much, based on our voluntary actions. We need to eat every day; we need fresh water. Living in housing without any temperature adjustment becomes unpleasant. We need jobs, and those job require fossil fuels. Nearly all of what happens is “baked into the cake.”

            • Xabier says:

              There is a minimal level without which most things become unviable: try cutting back on food and drink below that threshold and you will get a sharp reminder from the body’s warning system of imminent failure and collapse!

            • NomadicBeer says:

              Agree Gail,
              I am not talking about “saving the world”.
              Like Norman says above any species will breed until it hits physical limits.
              My criticism is about pointless debates that the relatively rich (like us) engage in trying to justify their wasteful existence.
              Why not drop the pretense and just admit we will consume as much as we can?
              And for those few that want to do something – start in your backyard.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              That’s my philosophy!!!

              More More Moar MOAR!!!

              As Jevons is fond of saying… if you buy a fuel efficient car… you take your savings and buy an fancy banjo.. so you end up using that saved energy one way or the other…. there is no escaping the paradox….

              So buy the gas guzzler… and the fancy banjo… and if you have money left over … buy some stuff you don’t need…. buy buy buy …. Because… it does NOT matter.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              And if a Green Groopies wins 50M dollars…. the MOREON would dump their Prius for a Taycan… (and a Tesla…)…. and they’d build a Concrete Eco Mansion.

          • Minority Of One says:


          • Tim Groves says:

            The denier logic seems to be: “because temp changes occurred in the past, that means they cannot occur now”.

            You think in this way because you are cognitively impaired. There is no “denier logic”. That’s just your way of invalidating the views of people you don’t like.

            The correct way of looking at this is more along the lines of: “because temperature changes far in excess of anything that is happening now have occurred in the past—and in the quite recent past (check out the Younger Dryas, for instance)—then nothing that is occurring now can be considered in any way to be beyond the norms of natural variability.”

            If you can’t understand and endorse this simple logic, I submit that you are suffering from some form of cognitive impairment. Perhaps you are trapped in a cult belief system, or perhaps you have been educated beyond your intellectual capabilities.

            On the other hand, if you can understand and endorse this simple logic and you do so, then I can pat you on the back and say, “That’s good. You’ve taken your first step into a larger world.”

            • Mike Roberts says:

              nothing that is occurring now can be considered in any way to be beyond the norms of natural variability

              However, all temperature changes (be it natural variability or not) have a cause. This has been extensively researched. The cause for the current warming is human behaviour. Even the few contrarian climate scientists would acknowledge that humans have a large, even majority, role in global warming. What is happening now (in terms of rapidity of change), may have happened in human history (I don’t believe it has) but the point is that human behaviour is the cause, not natural variability.


            • Human behavior involves cooking our food. We can stop doing this, but it is doubtful we will survive. How many want to sacrifice their own life, in the hope that they can “save” the planet (given that the planet seems to be fully capable of saving itself)?

            • Tim Groves says:

              Mike, we live in a Universe of cause and effect. And if the Universe was merely a billiard table and all we had to do was look at billiard balls colliding with each other, we might be able to work out the causes and effects of different balls moving in considerable detail. We could say “Ball A moved in this way because it was hit by Ball B in that way.”

              But unfortunately for those who like to keep things simple, we don’t live in such a Universe. Where were live on the surface of planet Earth, there are literally thousands of things that affect other things in thousands of ways, so that apart from in really obvious cases, such as “Fred was killed crossing the road when he was hit by a car driven by Jack,” it is impossible to disentangle all the causes and effects from one another.

              In the case of temperature changes, there are, once again, literally thousands of causative factors, and it is impossible to accurately attribute weight to all the causes or even to identify them.

              And all this would be in a “billiard ball” Universe where we didn’t take things like quantum theory into consideration.

              You are a young man, so this may be before your time, but do you remember chaos theory, associated with the work of Edward Lorenz? The most famous example is an idea known as the butterfly effect in which a butterfly beating its wings in the Amazon can result in a hurricane off the coast of Florida. The butterfly effect considers events and outcomes to have a sensitive dependence on initial conditions, so that a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state.

              TheIPCC scientists are well aware of chaos theory. As they told us in one of their reports, “The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”

              Please ponder that or masticate on it for as long as it takes to digest. You should be able to figure out that, if we assume we live in a world of cause and effect (not all philosophers would allow that), then there is no one single cause for what’s happening now, but thousands of them.

              Your attempt to lay the blame or the responsibility for “what’s happening now” on “human behavior” is simplistic to the point of reductio ad absurdum, which as I’m sure you know is a logical fallacy.

              Also, your knowledge of human history is woefully inadequate. If you want to learn anything substantial, you really must study harder.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              But it’s so much easier to be told what to think by the MSM…. The Ministry Truth condenses truth’s into shorty catchy headlines.

            • Tim Groves says:

              NASA not only faked the moon landings, the shuttle flights and the International Space Station video products, they also produce fake cl.mate science. Basically, they’ll fake anything for money.

            • Tim Groves says:

              What is happening now (in terms of rapidity of change), may have happened in human history (I don’t believe it has) but the point is that human behaviour is the cause, not natural variability.

              You don’t believe it has? And that’s supposed to be an impressive argument?

              Have you ever heard of mega-droughts?

              Mega-droughts are really major droughts that last-decades or centuries and can turn woodlands or savannah into desert for the duration. They have historically led to the mass migration of humans away from drought affected lands, resulting in a significant population decline from pre-drought levels.

              They are suspected of playing a primary role in the collapse of several pre-industrial civilizations, including the Anasazi of the North American Southwest, the Khmer Empire of Cambodia, the Mayan of Mesoamerica, the Tiwanaku of Bolivia, and the Yuan Dynasty of China.

              The African Sahel region in particular has suffered multiple mega-droughts throughout history, with the most recent lasting from approximately 1400 AD to 1750 AD. North America experienced at least FOUR mega-droughts during the Medieval Warm Period.

              During a 200-year mega-drought in the Sierra Nevada that lasted from the 9th to the 12th centuries, trees would grow on newly exposed shoreline at Fallen Leaf Lake, then as the lake grew once again, the trees were preserved under cold water. However, a 2016–2017 expedition by the Undersea Voyager Project found evidence that the ancient trees did not grow there during an ancient drought, but rather slid into the lake during one of the many seismic events that have occurred in the Tahoe Basin since it was formed.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I have a question.

              Which is a bigger MOREON.

              A CovIDIOT – or a ClimIDIOT?

            • someone who finds it necessary to repeat himself endlessly

            • Mike Roberts says:


              given that the planet seems to be fully capable of saving itself

              How so? I’m not sure what you are referring to, here. The planet will be around for a few billion years yet. When what we think of as “life” will stop being part of the planet is unknown but my guess is will be billions of years before the planet is no more.

              What most people think of as “saving the planet” is probably when extinctions are slowed to what is commonly thought to be the background rate. Since it is likely that humans are the cause of the sixth (or, some think, the seventh) extinction event, then humans would probably have to start doing something different to reduce their impact. I agree, though, that it is probably impossible to get humans to voluntarily stop acting like humans.

            • Mike Roberts says:


              Thanks for the compliment. It’s nice to know that I’m actually a young man!

              Of course there are a huge number of factors involved in how global surface temperature changes. This is why climate models have to be tweaked, as more is learned about the various factors that affect temperature. But some factors have significant enough impacts that the models can be shown to have taken them into account quite well. If one removes human behaviour (primarily the burning of fossil fuels, but also deforestation and aerosols) then we see a very bad match to what has occurred. Add those things in and the models have done a pretty good job of replicating what we’ve been able to observe thus far.

              A 2019 study led by Zeke Hausfather evaluated 17 global surface temperature projections from climate models in studies published between 1970 and 2007. The authors found “14 of the 17 model projections were
              consistent with observations.”

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Here’s the thing…

              If the Elders want GW to be a ‘thing’ … all they have to do is give grants to loads of university researchers with a hint that if they want to keep receiving grants… they will help to make GW a ‘thing’…. there will be plenty of takers… there always is.

              This is the way the world works.

            • Mike Roberts says:


              You don’t believe it has? And that’s supposed to be an impressive argument?

              I didn’t say it was supposed to be an impressive argument. I was just stating an opinion based on what I’ve read, without having to find links. However, here’s one. Included in the introduction:

              Earth’s history is peppered with rapid and extreme global warming events collectively known as hyperthermals. Although none were as rapid as human-induced climate change, most are associated with major extinction events and were invariably caused by the injection of huge volumes of carbon into the ancient atmosphere.

              Subsequent articlehere.

        • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

          You are correct about just ONE self reinforcing feedback loop will cause continued warming.
          However, the climatic system is a vast. Complex system and there is a lag in reaction…as in Dr Peter Wards book it has been documented….thank you for your verification…
          Currently we are recording dozens of positive feedback loops currently observed by researchers and published in scientific journals.
          I agree with Gail 100%, not much we can do now, just try your best to act as decently in your circumstances.
          The next few years ahead will be challenging for a good portion of the population. If you are one of the forunate ones to escape the hardship, count your luck stars

          • Fast Eddy says:

            10+ years ago — based on Al Gore’s warnings… I went to Resolute Bay … and bought a 5km strip of beach front land — just to the left of the ‘city’….

            I hired my brother to design a Concrete Eco Resort…. and was going to break ground this year because surely by now … this would be the Arctic Riviera….

            This is the price of delusional thinking…. Leo .. on the other hand….


          • Tim Groves says:

            Herbie, it is kind of you to acknowledge I was correct about anything! Thank you. This is such rare behavior around here that I’d like to buy you a beer.

            When you point out the dozens of positive feedback loops that researchers are uncovering, or pretending to uncover in some cases, you neglect the fact that there are many enormously powerful negative feedback loops that are also operating but that researchers have no interest in uncovering because if they do so they won’t get published in these same “scientific” journals and their careers and funding will be in tatters.

            I am confident that the weather and cl.imate extremes we are experiencing are well within the bounds of natural variability. Hence, it doesn’t matter whether they was partially anthropogenic or not. The whole argument is a not-starter. You are barking up the wrong tree.

            Take a good deep look into weather and cl.mate history and try to find out why things changed when they did. It’s like doing the biggest jigsaw puzzle ever. Learn about the different kinds of cycles in play over different lengths of time. Learn about how ocean heat content is such a huge factor in driving the weather on land. Learn about Dansgaard–Oeschger events and bond Events. Learn about how movements in the jet stream can turn the Sahara from savanna to desert and back again, and how changes in the angle of the Earth’s axial tilt with respect to the orbital plane over a cycle of about 41,000 years can be sufficient to flip the planet from glacial to interglacial and back again.

            Then, based on your knowledge, try to estimate the odds on various degrees of change in the present era. If you do your research right, you should find that we are extremely lucky to have had such a stable last century of benign weather, and that our luck is unlikely to last much longer.

            • Mike Roberts says:

              I am confident that the weather and cl.imate extremes we are experiencing are well within the bounds of natural variability. Hence, it doesn’t matter whether they was partially anthropogenic or not. The whole argument is a not-starter. You are barking up the wrong tree.

              Hold on, either warming is within the bounds of natural variability or it is influenced by human behaviour. It seems you are claiming both to be true. If so, then you would probably not see much difference if you subtract the anthropogenic effects. Has this been done? What did it show?

        • Herbie Ficklestein says:

          Climate change is not simply a matter of cause and effect. It’s more like a vicious circle. Thomas Crowther is a professor at ETH Zürich, a university in Switzerland.

          Crowther: “Not only are we directly altering the climate, but that process in itself is kicking off these things that are gonna actually accelerate the damaging impacts over the rest of the century.”

          This self-reinforcing cycle is called a feedback loop. For example, warmer temperatures make soil microbes more active. The microbes then release more carbon into the atmosphere – which in turn speeds up global warming, which makes the microbes even more active, and so on.

          Crowther: “I just imagine a sort of wheel spiraling out of control.”

          Melting sea ice is another example. Because ice is white, it reflects sunlight back to outer space, which reduces the heat absorbed by the earth. But global warming melts the ice, leaving dark ocean water behind. The water then absorbs the sun’s heat, which increases global warming … leading to more melting ice.

            • Herbie Ficklestein says:

              Afraid you were a tad bit too early in your projections Fast Eddy..that’s why…and besides sea level rise is NOT evenly distributed among the coastlines of the Planet.
              But you can’t help yourself or ourselves..even with it staring us in the face we can’t help ourselves…we are hardwired like you pointed out do what we do…Jay Hansen of DieOff fame explained it all years ago

              Here in South Florida its crazy overdevelopments of mega projects cashing and run and pretend planned sea wall projects
              Will solve the problem…at least for a little while so the money can be taken from those before the truth hits. Remember the counter is a VAST dynamic, complex, system …any changes take time to work their way threw…it’s not based on a human lifetime experience, unfortunately, though, seems it will be much sooner than later than we expected…

              PS Al Gore’s beachfront property was miles away from the shore!🤣 Just saying

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Oh come now…. if you believed this… would you be dropping millions on a sea level property development?

              Give your f789ing head a shake.

              Some of the most memorable images from Al Gore’s movie, An Inconvenient Truth, are the graphics that show how rising ocean levels will dramatically alter our planet’s coastlines. As Greenland’s ice sheets collapse, Gore predicts that our shores will be flooded and sea-bordering cities will sink beneath the water leaving millions of people homeless. His narration tells the audience that, due to global warming, melting ice could release enough water to cause at 20-foot rise in sea level “in the near future.”

            • Herbie Ficklestein says:

              Fast Eddy. Up to now the Artic SEA ICE is disappearing at an alarming rate….so there will be detectable alteration…believe what you want to believe….wait till we have the blue ocean event….
              PS I don’t care what Al Gore says about the topic! I do not get my science from him, but from the body of evidence via research, data collecting, basic Physics and Chemistry via the Scientific community of academic universities and institutions. Up till now, they proved too conservative IMO.
              You are certainly entitled to your own.
              I repeat again Gail is correct, we can’t really do anything material about it now..positive self reinforcing feedback loops kicking in by the dozens

            • Fast Eddy says:

              And the polar bears are starving – right?

              Hahaha… I was in the Arctic about 8 yrs ago … and the biologists were telling me how that is just plain bullshit … the bear population was doing just fine.

              Surely if the arctic was melting – Leo’s property would be underwater by now!

              Al Gore promised it would be 🙂

              ClimIDIOT – CovIDIOT… same thing

            • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

              Polar bears and narwhals are using up to four times as much energy to survive because of major ice loss in the Arctic, according to scientists
              The mammals are physiologically designed to use as little energy as possible. Polar bears are primarily “sit and wait” hunters, adapted to catching seals by breathing holes, and narwhals have evolved to dive very deep for prey without making fast movements. Now, however, they are having to work much harder to stay alive, according to a review article published in Journal of Experimental Biology.

              Polar bears feed mainly on the energy-rich blubber of ringed and bearded seals, but this food source is harder to come by. The sea ice on which they hunt has shrunk by 13% every decade since 1979. Studies show that polar bears now swim for an average of three days to find seals, or search for less energy-dense terrestrial food sources, forcing them to travel greater distances.
              Land-based resources are unlikely to compensate for the decline in seal feeding opportunities, meaning the bears are significantly more vulnerable to starvation. “A polar bear would need to consume approximately 1.5 caribou, 37 Arctic char, 74 snow geese, 216 snow goose eggs (ie 54 nests with four eggs per clutch) or 3m crowberries to equal the digestible energy available in the blubber of one adult ringed seal,” researchers write in the paper.

              ….Prof Klaus Dodds, from the department of geography at Royal Holloway, University of London, who was not involved in the study, said it was an important paper. “As the Arctic continues to burn, melt and thaw, there will continue to be a cascade of shocks and reverberations.

              From Feb 24,2021 the Guardian

              Laugh all you want Fast Eddy…

            • When eddy’s brave new world comes to be, heretics like you Herbie will be burned at the stake for spreading disinformation.

              There will be no shortage of volunteers with matches, because they need to believe too.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Hahahahaha… I saw plenty of very healthy bears up there when I was scouting the best beach front land… and the biologist on the trip said the bears were well fed and looked very healthy.

              Meanwhile… Leo has that spit of sand barely above sea level with many millions of his hard earned dollars invested in it not being submerged…

              Explain that ClimIDIOTS

            • Tim Groves says:

              I don’t care what Al Gore says about the topic! I do not get my science from him

              But I bet you’re embarrassed to have him on your side of the argument. Him and Mann and Schmidt, oh, and let’s not forget Guy McPherson. Not the sort of company I’d choose to keep.

              Come on Herbie, join the realist resistance and abandon the creed and orthodoxy. You know deep down that you want to.

            • Mike Roberts says:

              I don’t care what Al Gore says about the topic! I do not get my science from him

              But I bet you’re embarrassed to have him on your side of the argument. Him and Mann and Schmidt, oh, and let’s not forget Guy McPherson. Not the sort of company I’d choose to keep.

              Gosh, I’d be embarassed if I thought Al Gore was on my side. He’s on the side of Al Gore, only, as far as I can tell. Mike Mann is way too optimistic for my liking (even though he projected that 2C would be reached by 2036 on trajectories in place in 2015) and McPherson can’t seem to interpret the science properly. Schmidt is pretty reasonable, though, as far as climate change science is concerned.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Ya the but the PR company with the contract to spread the lie of GW hired Al Gore to be the spokesman … and Leo…

              Did anyone even know the phrase GW before the PR firm invented it and launched it with Al’s movie? Then of course they changed the term to CChange…. because they ran into issues with some places actually getting colder….

              You see… this is how stoooopid ClimIDIOTS are…. you can change the word hot to mean cold and they will buy that for a dollar… then you could swap it back and they’d spend another dollar to buy that…

              Wasn’t someone recently explaining that colder weather somewhere is being caused by the Arctic getting wormer!!!

              Seriously — these ‘IDIOCIES’ have no boundaries…

              If you want to have fun with a CovIDIOT… show them this and ask them to find Sweden


            • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

              I’m outnumbered! Can’t argue with the the likes of you all….I agree, no shortage of those we matches….good day and enjoy you BAU while it lasts…
              FE, I can rest easy because you saw a lot of Polar Bears…..

          • Fast Eddy says:

            I know – maybe Leo agreed to be the spokesperson for GW…. for the purpose of driving down the prices of low-lying islands…. then he went in and bought a bunch of them up for almost nothing!!!

            That makes sense… Leo = Genius.

            Then Al took the other fork and made money by monetizing the lie – here he is near the end explaining that…

   (this comes with a warning – If you are a Green Groopie or a MOREOn … don’t watch this … your brain will explode)

            • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

              Yep, Al Gore is hardwired too, just like the rest of Humanity…can’t help but to grab the most goodies one can get….George Carlin pointed that out in one of his skits!
              P.S. That does not mean the Basic principles and evidence of the Scientific Community should be discounted and ignored, just another defense mechanism to avoid facing the what is… and me are clinging to what should be….
              As Gail has repeatedly pointed out to us here, time and time again and I am in total agreement…we think we are in charge but Physics, Chemistry and other laws are in the driver’s seat.
              Read the article of Jay Hansen, died In 2019 after diving in Indonesia…lucky him..
              My plan is to climb and mountain 🌄 top and stay there!

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Watch Al Gore near the last part

            • Herbie Ficklestein says:

              Al Gore? He’s so yesterday, like Ralf Jaded!

          • Tim Groves says:

            Because ice is white, it reflects sunlight back to outer space, which reduces the heat absorbed by the earth.

            This is true at low attitudes, but only to a very limited extent in the Arctic where there is relatively little insolation and it is arriving at such a low angle that much of it is reflected even from open water.

            Remember, the Arctic gets most of its heat, not from the Sun, but from oceanic and atmospheric circulation bringing heat that mostly arrived on earth in the tropics.

            The Earth is, in a very real sense, a heat engine. Ain’t that right, Norman?

            Also, you have to take account of the insulating value of ice, which acts as a lid on the Arctic Ocean preventing heat loss from the ocean below, and so, paradoxically, an ice-free Arctic would help cool the world. It’s just one of those numerous negative feedbacks that Mike and you have probably never heard of.

            There is also a lot of cloud in the Arctic in the sunny season that both reflects incoming sunlight away and creates a “greenhouse effect” trapping heat in the air below it. So, as I keep saying, these things are lot more complex than you seem to appreciate.

            • Mike Roberts says:

              Climate scientists have a handle on a range of positive and negative feedbacks. It’s hard to understand why you might not realise this. Note, also, that Arctic warming is more pronounced in winter (with more insulating sea ice) than in summer.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Ya … and when the arctic warms the rest of the world cools…

    • Lastcall says:

      Climate lockdown will save us…..

      I love these pronouncements from the experts…so based in reality.
      I think this god complex of institutions of higher learning are a real insight into how the USSR came tumbling down despite control of everything.

      I wonder if any of them look out the window at the Sun and just for a moment think that there may be other factors affecting our climate other than how many latte’s and smashed avocado breakfasts the proles are consuming?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Again — more evidence the the MSM exists primarily to publish edicts from the ministry of truth.

        Obviously there is no way in hell this can possibly happen without imploding BAU… yet it gets headlines.

  2. Fast Eddy says:

    The Mayan civilization in Mesoamerica lasted for some 3,000 years. Their empire was spread throughout the Yucatan Peninsula and modern-day Guatemala, Belize, parts of Mexico, and western Honduras and El Salvador. Agriculture was the cornerstone of Mayan civilization, with great cities being built as the population grew. Religion was an important part of Mayan life; sacrifice – including human sacrifice – was a regular ritual, intended to appease and nourish the gods and keep the land fertile.

    However, somewhere around 900 CE, things started to go wrong for the Mayans. Overpopulation put too great a strain on resources. Increased competition for resources was bringing the Maya into violent conflict with other nations. An extensive period of drought sounded the death-knell, ruining crops and cutting off drinking water supplies.

    They were not the only ancient people catastrophically caught out by climate change.

    More than 4,000 years ago in Mesopotamia – the area currently made up of Iraq, north-east Syria and south-east Turkey – the Akkadian empire ruled supreme. Until a 300-year-long drought quite literally turned all their plans to dust. It was part of a pattern of changing climate conditions in the Middle East around 2,200 BCE that was constantly disrupting life and up-ending emerging empires.

    When the effects of drought began to be felt, people would leave the stricken areas and migrate to more abundant ones. These mass migration events, however, increased the pressure on remaining resources, leading to yet more problems.

    The iconic Angkor Wat temple is a reminder of the prowess of another of history’s lost civilizations – the Khmer empire of south-east Asia, which flourished between 802 and 1431 CE. It too was brought down by drought, interspersed with violent monsoon rains, against the backdrop of a changing climate.

    Even the Viking settlers of Greenland, in the far north Atlantic, are believed to have been affected by climate change. Some 5,000 settlers made the island their home for around 500 years. But they may have had their way of life disrupted by climate change. Temperatures dropped, reducing substantially the productivity of their farms and making it harder to raise livestock. They adapted their eating habits, turning their attention to the sea as a source of food. But life on Greenland became unbearably difficult, leading to the eventual abandonment of the island colony.

    The natural cycle of climate change is an ongoing and unavoidable part of life. But history seems to be telling us that when past civilizations have overstretched themselves or pushed their consumption of natural resources to the brink, the effects of climate change soon become amplified. With dire consequences for those caught up in it.

    • Tim Groves says:

      So we can all go carbon neutral and still get clobbered by the seven thin cows that visited Ancient Egypt, or seventy think cows of seven hundred of them? Hardly seems worth the bother.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        And I am a bad guy because I shove cardboard wine cartons full of coal into a furnace….

        BTW – the Rayburn distributor told me that she puts coal into used plastic shopping bags then shoves that into her furnace. Who am I to stand in judgement as the fuel ponds prepare for the Great Boiling Off.

    • I think an economy needs a really big margin (excess resources compared to population) to survive climate change. Even then, population is likely to fall. Less food can be grown. Stored grain can only help for a short time.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        If only those Mayans had Al Gore and Leo to inform them that burning coal and oil was causing their problems they could have ditched ICE for EVs…. and focused on generating power using solar panels and windmills…

        Aren’t we so lucky to have Al and Leo!!! Our anti-GW heroes!!!

  3. Fast Eddy says:

    The latest official figures for the European Union which are rarely acknowledged by the mainstream media indicate the following:

    From late December 2020 to May 22, 2021:

    12,184 deaths and 1,196,190 injuries following injections of four experimental COVID-19 shots (Moderna, Pfizer-BionTech; AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson’s Janssen). Serious injuries are of the order of 604,744 (i.e more than 50% of total injuries)
    The Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA gene-edited vaccine has resulted in the largest number of fatalities: Total reactions for its mRNA vaccine Tozinameran: 5,961 deaths and 452,779 injuries to 22/05/2021

    • Ed says:

      good post thanks

    • Karl says:

      Eh, I had both doses of the Moderna jab. A little soreness at the sight of injection. No big deal. If Moloch and the illuminati want me dead so be it. The oil wont last forever and I’m going to Maui next month to sip umbrella drinks while they can still serve them. Wasn’t ever going to make it out of this world alive anyways.

      • Tim Groves says:

        Well, good for you Karl. Sincerely. But remember, like about 90% of the recipients so far, you were darn lucky. Most of the witches’ brew stayed in your arm or shoulder muscle. Perhaps those who got jabbed too close to a capillary or a vein were not so lucky. Perhaps a significant amount of brew got into their bloodstream and took that mRNA to the brain, the heart, the kidneys, the liver, the spleen, the prostate, the womb or the testes? Perhaps the difference between a jab that kills, one that seriously injures, and one that just gives a little soreness at the injection site is partly due to how much brew goes into the bloodstream?

        Enjoy your trip!

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Karl … I would imagine that as a very intelligent person … you would have requested the long term safety studies for the experimental substance you had injected into your body….

          I’ve been trying to get a copy from the Ministry of Health here in NZ for months….

          Do you mind posting the info that your doctor gave you before he injected you?

      • NomadicBeer says:

        I appreciate the sentiment and the honesty.
        Of course, a lot of people say they don’t care about death but when the time comes they are trying to blame everyone else but themselves.
        It’s good that you take responsibility!
        Good luck with your next jab, and the next, and the next…

        • karl says:

          Oh, I do care about death. But everything in life is a calculated risk. 30,000 drivers die in accidents every year in the USA, but I put on a seatbelt and drive my car anyways. Alcohol can cause various cancers and contribute to obesity, but I still enjoy a beer or wine occasionally. At 41, I have about as much sand in the bottom of my hourglass as I do in the top. I took the vaccine to facilitate travel, which I enjoy. I weighed the risks, including giving due weight to the theories expressed here, and chose to get it. If I set myself up for population reduction, I hope you will all remember my sacrifice!

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Good to hear you are obeying Fauci and staying safe Karl! Have a great time in Hawaii.

        • Karl says:

          I’ve already reproduced, so don’t care about sterility. I waited until the number of vaccinated was into the 10’s of millions, which was sufficient proof of relative safety to me (frankly Fast, the vaccines are better tested than a lot of other substances I’ve ingested in my youth). After the first few months it became obvious to me that this pandemic was serious, but not the bubonic plague it was initially made out to be. I only got the vaccine so that I would have an easier time traveling, which I intend to continue doing as long as possible.

          I’ve always felt that the ideas around resource depletion and peak oil were rational and well supported by logic and facts. I thought that most of the people on OFW were likewise grounded in reality. To hear all of the talk about fake moon landings and vaccine conspiracies makes me realize that a lot of you are leaning toward the tinfoil hat types that will buy into anything. No wonder Norman (a very level headed fellow) had to take a sabbatical. It gets fatiguing listening to loonies.

          All that being said, I appreciate Gail’s insights and her making the comment section available.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            If I was over 70 and/or very unhealthy … I’d get the vax too…

            I’d also snort coke with breakfast… eat pizza 3x per day … and lay on the sofa watching re-runs of Hogan’s Heroes while drinking cold beer all day long….

            At a certain point you just have to say … why not.

        • karl says:

          Please dont judge this Covidiot, Delusastani too harshly. I promise to toast you as I gaze upon the “as-yet-unvisited-by-man” moon overhead. Cheers!

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Valcav Smil Energy Civilization does the math on this.. a very good read

    • Xabier says:

      Meanwhile public health officials, and politicians, everywhere are saying in unison that children should be injected asap, that trials have shown the vaccines are ‘just as safe’ for them as for adults, and that young, healthy, adults should get done, too.

      Despite both groups being at zero or vanishingly low risk from dying of that ‘terrible terrible disease’ Covid!

      They know all about the (mostly agonising) deaths and the high level of serious injuries (perhaps 10x the reports), even if, as Bhakdi suggests, this may have taken them by surprise.

      This suggests that sterilisation of the young, at the very least, is the true objective.

      Clearly, something is of highest priority, and it’s not public health! Profiteering doesn’t seem to fit the bill, either.

      • Tim Groves says:

        Good post, Xabier!

        They have just tried to pull the same stunt here in Japan. So far, only health workers and the over-70s are being jabbed. But one small town formulated a plan to begin mass jabbing of all junior-high-school kids last week.

        This is a small fishing community and very parochial even by Japanese rural standards. Obviously the town office people didn’t think this idea up on their own. Somebody outside (either higher up the hierarchy or from Big Pharma) must have told them to go for it. The idea being that once one local authority implemented it, a precedent would be set and then other local authorities up and down the country could start jabbing kids with abandon.

        However, earlier this week, a miracle happened. An anonymous insider leaked the scheme and this resulted in a huge number of phone calls (hundreds or thousands) that totally paralysed the local switchboard, plus dozens of emails and a few faxes. There were apparently a few cries of “murderers!” and a few death threats among that lot. As a result, the town announced it was abounding the mass jabbing at school and would instead treat teenagers the same as adults, as individuals who will be vaccinated only upon request.

        Yes, it seems to me that causing infertility in the young is the primary aim of these shots. There is no other logical reason for giving them.

        Why do I keep coming back to visions of the Carthaginians sacrificing their own children to Moloch or some other deity?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        How amazing that they are able to carry out tests on younger and younger children and determine there are no side effects… in weeks!

        What we need is a for an 7 year old to die of a heart attack after getting INJECTED….. it would be a stretch for the MSM to claim the death was not related to the INJECTION.

        That said… the CovIDIOTS are truly idiots… they can and will believe anything …. or they might just brush it off with — she died trying to save her granny….

        No … Cure… 4 … Stuuupidity (NC4S)

    • Azure Kingfisher says:

      At what point will data like the above replace COVID-19 hysteria? I don’t know anyone personally who claims to have had COVID-19 (family, friends, acquaintances, coworkers). Yet, most of the people I know have had one of the three Big Pharma injections on offer in the US.
      I hear if you make it past 15 minutes after receiving the shot your risk for anaphylaxis goes down significantly. The other day my wife asked me, “Why didn’t they seem to run into anaphylaxis during the early trials? What else are they going to discover as time goes on?”
      I heard of a doctor suggesting that we’ll see whether or not diabetes is a high risk at around the 3-4 year mark for those who’ve received the shot.
      Despite all the safety claims being made the truth is science is never settled and no one really knows what life for the injected will look like a year from now, or five years from now, or ten years from now. The more time distance we can put between us and the start of this global experiment the more informed our decisions will be.

      • Even after a few years, it will be hard to tell whether the vaccine is causing an increase in side effects of various kinds. It isn’t like there is a good controlled study going on. Each person will have multiple things that could have led to, say, an increase in diabetes risk.

      • Sam says:

        I have had it and trust me you don’t want it…I am in good shape run 30 miles a week and lift weights 4 times a week. It was difficult and tough to get through like a bad flu. My doctor had some college football players get it and she told me it was a tough slog….but you can get through it…as long as you aren’t old and out of shape….

        This thing was made in a lab in China so we really don’t know what it is going to do—-the media has lied to us so many times they can’t be trusted. Sounds like you want to pick and choose what you want to believe. Even though I have had it they still are hounding me to get the shot. I have the antibodies and don’t need the shot. Unfortunately this thing has become political which means people on both sides stick their heads in the sand and sign up to whatever their political hacks tell them to believe….. Donkeys versus Elephants= dumb and dumber…..Politicians are the dumbest people on the planet; all you have to do is meet a few of them and you will be saying omg get me out of here!

        • Tim Groves says:

          The Americans make the best bioweapons.

          But the Chinese make them smaller and cheaper.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          A mates 4 brothers in the UK had covid … it was like a cold or a mild flu…

          A mate of mine in Bali had it … it was like a cold… his wife had it – she had a sore throat for a few days… most of his staff had it… again … very mild symptoms…

          I don’t know of anyone who has gotten particularly ill from Covid…

          That’s probably because I don’t know many half dead 75 year old disease bags — and those are the people getting really sick… same people who get really sick if they catch the flu

          I’d have a better chance of winning the lottery than meeting a healthy sub-70 person who was hospitalized with covid.

  4. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Sovereign Defaults Hit Record in 2020; More Are Possible.

    “Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2021: The sovereign issuer-based default rate rose to a record high in 2020 against a backdrop of weakened sovereign credit profiles due to the Covid-19 pandemic, Fitch Ratings says. Downgrade pressures have eased this year, but our ratings indicate that more defaults are possible.”

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Haunted by memories of past U.S. interest rate hikes, the world’s central banks are laying the groundwork for a transition to life with less global stimulus, with many countries already signalling moves to the exit…

      “…more vulnerable central banks are fortifying their financial systems to ward off the type of capital flight that hit emerging markets during the 2013 “taper tantrum,” which was triggered by mere hints of Fed tightening…”

      • I notice,

        The Fed has said it would not start scaling back its huge stimulus until there had been “substantial further progress” in healing the U.S. job market.

        That at least puts off the US contribution to the mess of that would occur if tapering takes place. The tapering that took place in 2014 coincided with a huge drop in world oil prices.

  5. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Iran mired in economic pain as presidential vote nears.

    “When Iranians vote for a new president next week, they will do so in the depths of an economic crisis brought on by crippling sanctions and worsened by the pandemic.”

  6. Fast Eddy says:

    NUREMBERG 2: Journalist to Hospital: You’re Committing Crimes Against Humanity With PCR Test Fraud

  7. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Huarong, Evergrande Bond Slump Tests Too-Big-to-Fail Belief.

    “A bond selloff in two of China’s most prolific debt issuers is widening concern over contagion risks in the country’s $862 billion dollar bond market.”

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “China investigates senior bad debt official for corruption… Probe of Great Wall executive comes as global investor concerns grow over defaults…

      “The probe is the latest indication of possible financial misconduct in the top ranks of China’s “bad debt” asset management companies, as concerns rise over their high debt levels and falling profits.”

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “China gets tough on financial sector risk management, extends contingency planning to more institutions…

      ““Recovery and contingency planning is conducive to shoring up financial institutions’ risk awareness and crisis management capacity,” the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) said on Wednesday.”

    • There is a huge amount of debt holding up Chinese companies. If it starts collapsing, it has the potential to bring China’s growth rate to a severely negative position, I am afraid. This would hurt the world economy, apart from any effect the defaulting debt might have.

      • Student says:

        About China problems, I also find strange that they are trying to talk about supply chain bottleneck difficulties related to sporadic Covid-19 cases, while I think it is probably a more structural issue. But, as we already know, it seems to be a general strategy used by every Country:

        ‘ The slowdown is partly a result of the situation at Shenzhen’s Yantian Port, where operations have been largely halted since the first infection case was confirmed on May 21 ‘

        • Looking at this article, it says:

          “He expected the freight rates, which are already at historical highs, “to continue breaking records”, with considerable scrapping of old tonnage to be sparked by stricter emission rules and another round of inventory replenishment to be fuelled by massive government stimulus packages in major economies.”

          Of course, shipping companies would like freight rates to be at high levels. They would like to be the beneficiaries of massing government stimulus packages. The emissions requirements, while they sound onerous, might indirectly help the finances of the carriers who could actually keep up with them. Of course, part of the bottleneck that we are running into might be the result of the new shipping emissions rules that became effective January 1, 2020. It is more politically correct to point to COVID-19 than to close-to-impossible standards for many of the smaller shippers actually to be able to meet. Maybe the new rules were really intended to drive the smaller, less financially able shippers out of business.

          This is an article on the gear-up for the new standards:

          From January 1, 2020, ships will be required by the IMO to reduce SO2 emissions by more than 80%. The options for doing so vary, from installing sulphur-removing technology known as scrubbers to moving away from oil-based fuel entirely. What doesn’t vary all that much is the cost — complying with the new rules will be expensive.

          Back in May, a shipping executive at the US-listed Star Bulk Carriers told the Financial Times that installing exhaust cleaning units on 100 of his company’s vessels had cost $170 million (€154 million) alone.

          It’s not just shipping magnates who will be counting the cost though.

          A new study from a team of economists from Germany’s Landesbank Baden-Württemberg say the new fuel regulations pose a threat to the well-being of the world economy, no mean feat in an age of Trump, tariffs, trade and technology wars.

          Per-Ola Hellgren, one of the authors, says global economic growth could be “noticeably lower” in 2020 as a result of the ban, pointing to the high cost of conversion of older ships and the lack of preparation on the part of many shipping companies.

  8. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The price of goods leaving China’s factories, or ‘China’s factory gate prices’, has risen at the quickest rate in over 12 years, as a result of surging global commodity prices.

    “It is drawing attention to inflationary pressures while policymakers are trying to stimulate their economies in the aftermath of a coronavirus-induced downturn.”

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Covid outbreak in China sparks fears of trade disruption.

      “A Covid-19 outbreak in southern China is curbing activity at some of the country’s biggest ports, stoking fears that further disruption to international trade risks pushing up the price of its exports.”

    • Sam says:

      I am surprised the gasoline prices are not going higher given that the price for everything else is. Shipping cost Are much higher chemical cars are much higher

      • I expect airplane usage of oil is still down, holding oil demand down relative to some other things. Quite a few people are still working from home. In the US, March oil consumption has been as follows:

        2017 20.1 million barrels per day
        2018 20.7 million barrels per day
        2019 20.2
        2020 18.3
        2021 19.2

        The US’s oil consumption in March was still 7% below peak energy consumption in 2018. I expect that Europe was doing even worse.

        There are many changes going on which have a long-term downward impact on oil consumption. These changes help keep oil prices down.

        • Sam says:

          You are right, airline travel is down, but it is climbing…Where do you find your oil consumption info? I don’t have a good site for that yet. That is the true barometer of the health of an economy…if it is down 7 percent that is huge. I don’t think people staying at home is very accurate to consuming less oil….my guess is that they still drive just as much just not to work.

          • Karl says:

            I’m permanently remote now. My vehicle oil consumption is probably down 80%. That may rise some as the year goes on, but I’ll never get back to where I was pre-Covid.

  9. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Mortgage Surge Pushes Canada Consumer Debt to $1.7 Trillion.

    “A surge in mortgage borrowing is pushing consumer debt loads higher in Canada despite falling credit card use, as households plow more money into their homes while spending less on everything else.”

  10. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    Forgive them Father for they know not what they do…..

    Business Insider
    Boris Johnson flies by jet to the G7 summit in Cornwall in order to tell world leaders about ‘tackling climate change’
    Henry Dyer
    Wed, June 9, 2021, 11:41 AM·4 min read
    boris johnson flies cornwall
    Boris Johnson has flown around 400 kilometres to Cornwall from London for the G7 summit, where he will discuss “tackling climate change” with world leaders.

    The government’s own figures suggest the trip produces more than five times as many greenhouse gases as traveling by train.

    A planespotter saw an identical jet to one used by the Prime Minister making a test flight to Newquay Airport from London.

    The UK is hosting the COP26 climate change summit later this year.

    Afterward, Boris threw a few more shovels of coal on his Rayburn stove

    • Xabier says:

      Why, oh why, do the jets with the right people in them never crash?!

      He should take helicopters, much less safe.

  11. Adonis says:

    The truth may be that the plan was to convince the developed countries government’s to force their citizens to get vaccinated this is now being achieved which ultimately may lead to a shorter lifespan for said citizens the same principle was used during the Spanish flu over 100 years ago with a much lower population in the future we will gain some more time.

    • Student says:

      Adonis, this is interesting, but, this way, many politicians should be aware that they don’t have to take the jab and I think it is something probable.
      Just to make an example, in Italy, only very few politicians have been seen to take the jab.
      I think that no one of them should have problems to have a valid Green Pass anyway, even if I think that for the kind of movements they do (always under guard) they don’t need that pass.

    • I suppose this is the thinking: “with a much lower population in the future we will gain some more time.”

  12. Fast Eddy says:

    The CovIDIOTS are celebrating!!! Finally – their infants will be able to also STAY SAFE!!!

  13. davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    A joke floating around the Internet: what is the difference between a fact and a media claimed “conspiracy theory?”

    Answer: A few months…

  14. Fast Eddy says:

    Are the Elders vilifying crypo as they prep to burn it to the ground?

    Another false flag?

    It would very amusing to see Bitcoin implode… I always enjoy when mind of someone in a Cult encounters the Reality Sledgehammer

    It’s not two months ago someone was urging me to dip my toe into the Bitcoin pool … because fiat was going to zero and Bitcoin would be the new gold….

    I think I’ll hang onto my sack of gold… it may come in handy in the brief period just prior to the Extinction…

  15. Duncan Idaho says:

    World’s most liveable city: Auckland wins as Covid shakes up rankings

    I like Auckland, but prefer the South Island.
    Auckland does have a culinary scene, something mostly absent on South Island..

    • Hubbs says:

      Mills Sound for a wind tunnel gorge cruise, Christchurch for city tour, and what’s that mountain that the Pilatus Turbine powered ski equipped aircraft lands on?

  16. Fast Eddy says:

    Hong Kong is so desperate to get people vaccinated that it’s auctioning off a Tesla, a year’s worth of stays at a 5-star hotel, and a $1.4 million apartment

    • Herbie Ficklestein says:

      And to think my job offers just one extra vacation day!
      Does anyone have any on hands experience with the Shingles vaccine?
      Went to my Primary and he gave it a thumbs up👍, and thinking about getting it myself

      • I have had the “new” shingles vaccine, which is now several years old. A person needs two separate doses, a ways apart. There seem to be more than average side effects with the vaccines, but nothing like the current COVID-19 vaccines. I don’t remember having much in the way of side effects myself. At the time I got the vaccine, demand exceeded supply. I had to wait for the first dose, and later for the second dose. By now, I would think the supply problems would be ironed out.

        • Herbie Ficklestein says:

          Thank you Gail💖
          A neighbor had the Shingles and it was torture oh painful.
          Think I may have to pay out of pocket some 🤢
          Dollars, but don’t want to go through what she went through.

          • I knew someone who had the illness shingles, and it was a indeed a terrible experience. There was an earlier one-shot shingles vaccine that basically did not work well. What little protection it gave wore off quickly. I am a Kaiser member and they basically give vaccines free. I asked for the first vaccine, long ago. When the second vaccine came out, Kaiser informed me that the new vaccine was available. It took a while to get enough doses available for people who wanted it, however.

      • D. Stevens says:

        My husband recently got the Shingles vaccine and has been fine. Said the nurse was talking about a new Lyme disease vaccine and how it was pulled for safety reasons. I found this amusing because he makes fun of me and others for not wanting to get the C19 vaccine because I’m uncomfortable with the risks vs. benefits. Was difficult not to point this out to him but I find it best to avoid conflict in life which is becoming difficult with how cult everything is becoming.

        • if you do a general check-back

          you’ll find almost all the scare-scams-hoaxes and mass cults didn’t start to gain traction until everyone had access to ‘social media’–maybe 5 years ago or so. Loonytoon plots didn’t happen on OFW till around 2015/16

          now everyone has their own bullhorn to shout all the rubbish they want to–someone will be out there to listen and agree

          and yes–I’ve had a very close call with bad medication on one of my kids.

          we came to ‘spitting out’ thalidomide at the first tablet—purely by instantaneous female instinct.
          “whatever that is–I’m not taking it”

          but thalidomide was NOT a conspiracy to leave the human race disabled. It was not the intention of the medical profession to create a cult of people with missing limbs.
          Had it happened now though—it would undoubtedly have been put forward as that. And I do not exaggerate.

          I occasionally see a thalidomide victim now–the age of my own kid. The lurch in my stomach is very real, even after all these years. Impossible not to.

          Thalidomide still has medical uses and is very effective—but not when given the pregnant women.
          That was a mistake
          It was not a plot.

  17. Nothing will be resolved about the accusation of the virus on Wuhan because USA (and the rest of the world) have their balls caught by PRC


    Speaking about it, the whites always had some kind of fetish on East Asians, which might be their biggest weakness. When Japan bombed Pearl Harbor, several people cut 4 cherry trees at Washington DC.

    Then, it is said , ‘cooler heads’ preserved the remaining trees , which were renamed “Oriental Cherry Trees”.

    It is the ‘cooler heads’ which ruined Western Civilization. Japan was far harsher to Western stuff during 1941-45. All Westerners were ‘evacuated’ to remote zones, and people like Victor Starffin, a Russian born baseball player who ended up in Japan after the Revolution, had to take Japanese names like “Suda Hiroshi”.and had to speak exclusively Japanese, a restriction which also was forced on Koreans, Taiwanese and others Japan had ruled at that time.

    • I think that the author of the linked article maybe correct:

      Why the media and the Biden administration are doing a 180 is harder to answer. Maybe it is damage control, or so that the ‘official narrative’ can have controlled burn instead of a crash landing. So the narrative has changed from ‘definitely not a lab leak’ to now ‘inconclusive’. And with Trump gone, Fauci, having served his main function of being a ‘voice of authority’ against Trump during the 2020 election, the media and political elite will begin to distance themselves from him, until finally throwing him under the bus, which will be the final arc of his career from ‘America’s doctor’ to now America’s face of corruption.

      One of the the most frustrating thing about Covid is that we will probably never get to the bottom of it.

      The real truth would simply be too awful to search out and reveal.

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        but we can hope. The slow turn against Fauci, the recent evidence against Kristian Anderson and Peter Daszak etc. In the end, if it’s all fully out in the open, China will blame Fauci Anderson and Daszak.

        • Ed says:

          they make the perfect fall guys. just like the serpent with the apple. China and US were pure and innocent they were led astray by the evil three

        • NomadicBeer says:

          what do you think of the fact that the MSM ignored all the problems with the narrative for more than a year but it seems ready to embrace it now?
          Isn’t that a bit too easy?
          I think it’s more probable that they are moving from the “shock and awe” phase to “mistakes were made” phase. Fire some flunkies, replace some politicians and move on to the next crisis.

          And about that hope – you really should treat that.
          “The jar which Pandora brought was the jar of evils, and he takes the remaining evil for the greatest worldly good—it is hope, for Zeus did not want man to throw his life away, no matter how much the other evils might torment him, but rather to go on letting himself be tormented anew. To that end, he gives man hope. In truth, it is the most evil of evils because it prolongs man’s torment.”
          Nietzsche in Human, All Too Human

    • Tim Groves says:

      I knew an Austrian businessman who was raised in Japan during the war. Although the Austrians became Germans in 1938 and Germany and Japan were allies, his family had to be evacuated from Yokohama to the mountains of Nagano, where they spent the war years quietly and in far greater luxury that most of the natives. But given the hysteria at the time, it was impossible for caucasians to live safely in the cities. If you think BLM hates whitey, that’s mainly theater. Japanese hatred for whites may have been mostly theater too, but there were enough fanatics around to make it as unwise for white people to walk down the streets of Tokyo back then as it would be for them to walk the streets of Detroit or Philadelphia these days after dark.

      The Austrian boy grew up and became a businessman, spent his entire career in Tokyo selling Austrian special steels to Japanese industry and retired in the 1990s to the Tyrol, where as far as I know he may still be today.

      I’m generalizing, of course, but beneath the surface in Japan today, as has been the case for centuries, is fear of social disapprobation. They still have a sense of shame here. It seems it was always much stronger than Westerners had. People can be petrified about losing their reputation. Get found guilty of a crime and your whole family may be ostracised and forced to share the compensation bill. In any case, compliance with social norms is such a high priority that it almost seems hard wired.

      Wuhan: We know the virus was tinkered with in a lab but we don’t now where. We know that the US, the Chinese and others are working in concert on gain of function research and that it is ordered from above. The world’s owners wanted the research, wanted the pandemic, and want the jabs in every arm. Anyone you can name in the crime syndicate is just a front man. Punishing them will be like pulling the tail off the lizard. We can all have a lot of fun watching that disembodied tail wriggling around.

      • I am afraid that it is the oligarchs pulling the strings now.

        • Xabier says:

          The oligarchs, the apex-financiers and industrialists, the Central Bankers: an unholy alliance of all the soulless and damned.

          Let’s not forget just how they view human beings:as ‘inevitably obsolescent human capital.’

          And yet, surely the real horror is that they have found so many low-level willing accomplices, who haven’t even had to be bought with large salaries, share options,or be blackmailed, or even threatened with execution, and who will be discarded when no longer of use.

          All the little nobody doctors, public health experts, police officers, soldiers, nurses, celebrities, newsreaders, journalists, NGO’s, who together propagate and enforce this giant Lie.

          It’s satisfying to reflect that they too will be snuffed out one day.

          • The amazing thing is they will die gladly, kind of satisfied that they did something to ‘save civilization’,

            A young Polish univ student , mortally wounded during the 1920 Battle of Warsaw, said this

            “There won’t be such glory ever, even though I won’t be part of it”

            That’s the mentality of such cogs.

            • Xabier says:

              There’s a story like that from the Crimean War: an officer got off his horse and knelt beside a dying soldier, thinking it might be his last words for his family:

              ‘At least, Sir, they can’t say I didn’t do my duty!’

              Brainwashing is a wonderful thing.

          • Azure Kingfisher says:

            Everyone wants their lives to have meaning. Some people enjoy a newfound sense of power, too. In the early months of the scamdemic, one of my coworkers was proud to report during a department meeting that she was confronting people on the street about not wearing their masks.

            “Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man’s character, give him power.” – Abraham Lincoln

          • Fast Eddy says:

            All I can see… is I can’t wait to see how this all ends.

            The suspense is killing me.

  18. Yoshua says:

    After the outbreak in Wuhan, China sealed off Hubei province from rest of China, but allowed people from Wuhan to travel abroad. Not a single nation stopped those flights. Why?

    After the Lunar New Year 200K Chinese guest workers arrived in Northern Italy, which became the next pandemic hotspot. From there the virus spread to rest of Europe and from Europe to New York, which turned into a new hotspot and from there it spread to rest of Americas. Why didn’t Italy stop the arrival of the Chinese guest workers? An obvious risk?

    Trump signed the trade deal with China and after that the pandemic started. Trump closed the borders with China, but kept them open to Europe. Too many obvious mistakes?

    • NomadicBeer says:

      According to the shock doctrine, all of these “mistakes” will be explained away as incompetence. Some people in power will be replaced by other graduates of WEF and things will continue as usual.

      One thing that can never ever be officially questioned is the panicdemic itself – it must have been of plague proportions to justify the loss of so many liberties and the destruction of so many livelyhoods. The 90% of the people that bought into it from the beginning will never accept their complicity.

      Just like the “good Germans” – after the war they all declared they never knew there were concentration camps next door (despite the oily soot on their window sills) and somehow none of the good Germans were at home when the shock troops came by the village and killed or kidnapped innocent families.

      Honestly, I would emotionally prefer FE’s hypothesis just so I don’t have to sit through future conversations with people proferring innocence despite screaming their hate now on FB.

      • Xabier says:

        Incredible as it may seem, even in the death camps many prisoners who saw the poison cylinders and the ashes floating down on to them, refused to believe the truth……

        • NomadicBeer says:

          I don’t know if that is a testament to some people’s innocence or conversely a proof of human stupidity.

          • Xabier says:

            Probably neither: when the truth is too shocking, the brain often refuses to recognise it.

            We also forget that the events of the 20th-century have habituated us to the possibility of such great, organised, large-scale, evil; but those people had no prior warning of such things.

            • NomadicBeer says:

              “We also forget that the events of the 20th-century have habituated us to the possibility of such great, organised, large-scale, evil; but those people had no prior warning of such things.

              That is a great point. It also explain why lots of people raised with traditional liberal values (like Norman) cannot imagine there are conspiracies – just mistakes and incompetence. Yes they have to ignore half of the 20th century history and the whole last year, but at least they are still doing well, so nothing to see here.

    • Student says:

      Yoshua, the points you bring are also debated in Italy, but only outside mainstream media indeed.
      You have to know that the official narrative during the first phase of the pandemic (February 2020) was that we, Italians, had to avoid racism and discrimination towards Chinese people. No flights were blocked and also we had to offer our welcome to them, even if just come back with a travel from China.
      You can see a couple of distinguished examples here:

      Recently also a tv show talked about our inadequate pandemic plan, as you can see here (which actually we have to say that it was similar to the German one and also of other Countries and they had contemporary infections) and it seems all connected with WHO:

      There was also a police search at the Ministry of Health, as you can see here:

      But, we can say that at the moment most of the people are still in charge and, apart from some little change with persons, nothing has really happened. We are going on as before.
      Actually we are acting as the child top of the class who wants to be the first on following EU guidelines and even possibly anticipate them in a more rigid and authoritarian way.
      Therefore if someone will help us from outside, good, because otherwise I think that people are so fell asleep that we will go on plunging ourselves in the black hole of authoritarianism,
      But we have to say too: like all the other European Countries are doing right now.

      • NomadicBeer says:

        “But we have to say too: like all the other European Countries are doing right now.”

        I am incredibly disappointed in Europe – not only they have not learned anything from history but they seem proud of their stupidity.
        When I was growing up I always felt that if I had been the winner in second world war, I would have blamed the whole population in Germany for the horrors of the nazis.
        Looking at all the collaborators, “good Germans” and would-be Hitlers, Mussolinis and Stalins around us now I maintain my position. Whatever horrors wait for us in the future, never forget that almost everybody was an eager and willing accomplice. Yes, I see that in my family and friends and even myself (I stopped speaking out because I am afraid).

      • Xabier says:

        Maybe there is an ancient instinct which whispers to us that safety lies in conformism, however absurd?

        And it was probably true that those who didn’t conform to tribal law were killed or expelled.

        This Plan has been implemented with expert psychology.

        • Ed says:

          As the Japanese say the nail that stands up gets beaten down.

          • JMS says:

            Probably the same idea exists in many languages. In portuguese there’s a proverb with that exact meaning: Lightning doesn’t fall on fallen wood.

            Prudence is the intelligence of the weak, and the little people have millennia of experience in how to evade, or bear, the blows of the strong, whether the strong are the king, the bailiff, the boss or goddess Fortuna.

  19. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    Tobias Carroll
    Tue, June 8, 2021, 11:23 AM

    The practice of slavery has, unfortunately, had a long history across much of the world. It was prominent in ancient Rome, which led to its spread as the Roman Empire began to occupy a larger and larger area. Now, an archaeological dig in Great Casterton, England has turned up an unsettling and visceral piece of evidence of how slavery was practiced when the Romans ruled Britain.

    Writing at The Guardian, Mark Brown has details on what was discovered — and what its implications are. The discovery was made after workers involved in building a conservatory at house in Great Casterton discovered bones in the ground. The remains were analyzed and determined to be from between the 3rd and 5th century. That wasn’t what was most noticeable about them, however. No, that came with what accompanied the body: shackles found around the skeleton’s ankles.

    Scientists believe that the man was enslaved and died sometime in his 20s or 30s, at which point his body was left in a ditch. A number of archaeologists from the Museum of London Archaeology who investigated the scene recently published their findings in the journal Britannia. “To have the opportunity to study the body of a person who quite probably was a slave is really important,” said Michael Marshall, finds specialist at the Museum of London Archaeology.

    It’s a historically significant find to be sure, but it’s also evidence of a very bleak moment in history — and a sobering testament to how cruel some people can be towards others.

    The poor Chap had shackles on when he died and thrown in a ditch…
    More of this after BAU ends and life becomes normal again with lifespans of 30 years or so…
    Lot less to worry about like our 401k retirement plans, college loans, mortgages…

    • Dennis L. says:


      Always the optimist, we will make forty, design life for humans, with few if any problems.

      For excitement, think “Gladiator,” women supposedly loved these men, disfigured or not, good breeding material, smart women. No pansies for them, hybrid vigor with a bit of color for good measure.

      Second to last paragraph: Supposedly Mother Theresa lost her faith, continued on, but without soul. That is a tough one, she believed in what she practiced. We are human, always have been, still are.

      Dennis L.

      • Unions between Slaves and nonslaves were usually childless, and if there were any offspring, their life expectancy was very low since there was something called ‘wet nurses’, whose job was to kill infants from unwed mothers.

        Gladiator is just a cheap movie.

        The Elites will become something other than humans.

    • NomadicBeer says:

      3rd to 5th century – most probably after Romans left.
      It’s weird that they did not remove the shackles – more probably it was a bandit attack otherwise the owner would have reused good metal on the next slave.
      Those barbarians just threw them all (slave and owner) in a ditch. Disgraceful!

      • Dennis L. says:

        Sheriff and prisoner?

        Dennis L.

      • Herbie Ficklestein says:

        An upstart in Britain, Magnus Maximus, took most of British legions with him to challenge the Western Emperor Gratian about 380 AD in Gaul,now France. Gratian was killed and the Eastern Emperor Theodosius came to the rescue late but defeated poor Maximus Magnus in battle.
        After Theodosius died his son, Honorius took over the Western part of the Empire. Unfortunately, not enough of resources were left to send back to England and Honorius basically sent them a Dear John letter asking them to best defend themselves….that was early 5th century…
        Unsettled times….ever then there were request from the province to provide entertainment in the Arena! Go figure….🐂
        Bread and 🎪 circus…

    • wratfink says:

      Some things never change.

      Like the story of Peter Schiff’s father, Irwin Schiff. Irwin Schiff was a tax protestor…US libertarians may have heard of him. He was sentenced to 14 years in the Federal pen at age 77 by the IRS. He was 87 when he got terminal lung cancer. Much as he tried, Peter could not get them to release his father to die a free man. They kept him shackled to a prison ICU bed until the day he died. This was in 2017.

      Man’s cruelty to others spans the ages.

    • Tim Groves says:

      He could have been a convict paying his debt to society and working on a chain gang. Was there any sign of a striped uniform?

  20. Yoshua says:

    “Why was Ottawa paying Chinese researchers, including PLA officers, to use Canada’s only BSL-4 research lab to help the Chinese military develop Beijing’s bio-warfare?

    The Chinese lab they were coordinating with was WIV. As in Wuhan.” John Schindler former NSA spoon

    Maybe there’s global conspiracy to release a bioweapon and control the global population…since they know that world is on the brink of collapse?

    • There seem to be many countries who were in on this. I know France and Australia were involved, for example. Australia was the country that gave China push-back about the virus not really being from the wild. That is part of the reason that China and Australia are arguing about exports.

    • Ed says:

      They have a one world government. The serious matters are agreed to by the one government. The window dressing for the slaves is left to local discretion.

  21. neil says:

    You find this hilarious? You’re a very odd man.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      It is not so much a question of whether I personally find it ‘funny’, as whether the Tories have put themselves into a position of embarrassment and derision.

      They freely entered into a new formal power relationship with the EU, through the signing of the Brexit withdrawal and trade agreements, that gives the EU the upper hand. The Tories agreed to formal mechanisms of punishment in retaliation for violations of the agreements.

      They are now in the position of a government that wants to force its own will, against the NIP that they have already agreed in international law, in a scenario in which they have no power to do so, and in which they have already agreed to the formal mechanisms of their own punishment.

      Do humans find that sort of behaviour to be ‘funny’? Maybe they do, humans do tend to have a sense of power ratios and a sense of humour. Personally I see this as very serious matter.

      But besides, let us not stoop to personal accusations against each other on this forum, which is liable to achieve nothing. The Tories will not gain a stronger hand by you having a go at me.

      It is understandable that situation may be frustrating for some, but you personally should not be embarrassed, you are not personally a player in the events.

      You may as well just laugh at it along with any others who may happen to be. But the important thing is to be aware of what the Tories are doing, and the position that they have put themselves in.

      So let me be clear, I do not find this situation to be ‘funny’, although the behaviour of the Tories is very, very odd – and I can understand if some do find it ‘funny’.

  22. neil says:

    Relax. We’ll be back in the single market by next year. If it hadn’t been for Northern Ireland you’d have had no chance. Who’d have thought it?

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      Personally I have no committed dispositions about UK membership of the EU single market/ customs union – but I am surprised the the UK opposition parties, LP, LD, who wanted to remain in those, are now so meek that they are not even making an issue about the current turn of events.

      UK no longer has a functional opposition – which cannot be a good thing for UK. Indeed, that only emphasises the political ‘distance’ that is widening between the TP supporting England, and other countries like Scotland and Wales. England and Scotland are now on very different political trajectories, and the absence of any functional opposition parties in England only deepens that.

      I do not ‘foresee’ TP agreeing to SM/ CU – they are refusing even minor alignments. They want trade deals with other countries, with a USA-UK deal being the ‘prize’ of Brexit. Alignment, let alone membership, would undermine that, and call the entire Brexit project into question. TP is not going to do that.

      It seems to be much more likely that TP will push ahead with its intransigence to implement the NIP, or to make any concessions that would avert the problems – and it will, eventually, place itself in a position of severe punishment from the EU. TP is also very unlikely to secure a USA deal in that scenario.

      TP has backed itself into a corner, the opposition is collapsed, and there is no obvious ‘good’ outcome for UK of this situation. It is perhaps more likely that Scotland will eventually vote to go its own way and rejoin the EU, and the remnants of the UK will be stuck with the ‘niche’ that Boris made for it. Sometimes, one makes one’s bed, and one lies in it.

    • Freebooter says:

      No we won’t because we’ll be folded into NAFTA

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Just finished this

      Too bad the IRA is no longer active….

  23. Mirror on the wall says:

    All eyes on the Tories today, to see if they will abide by the terms of the NI Protocol to which they signed up in international law. The EU’s stated position is that ‘pacta sunt servanda’ (agreements must be kept) is the fundamental principle of law.

    The EU is now talking about cross-the-board trade quota and tariff sanctions against the UK – in fact the Tories already agreed to the mechanism for the application of those broad sanctions as a part of the Brexit trade deal.

    It seems that the Tories will not be happy until the EU has severely wielded the rod, and the EU makes clear that it is fully prepared to do so if the Tories remain incalcitrant.

    > Revenge will be swift! EU threatens to punish UK if Boris Johnson breaks Brexit rules

    Brussels has vowed to slap Britain with trade tariffs unless Boris Johnson agrees to fully implement the Northern Ireland Protocol.

    European Commission vice-president Maros Sefcovic said the bloc is ready to take “retaliatory measures” after talks over the post-Brexit plans to avoid a hard border ended without a breakthrough.

    The Brussels diplomat insisted EU chiefs would not be “shy in reacting swiftly, firmly and resolutely” to ensure the Prime Minister sticks to the terms of his Brexit divorce deal.

    Speaking to reporters in London, Mr Sefcovic added: “Our patience really is wearing very very thin therefore we have to assess all options we have at our disposal. Legal action, arbitration, and of course I’m talking about cross-retaliation. We do not want this to happen.

    “If it comes to the cross-retaliation… If you look through the agreement it’s pretty obvious it could be the suspension of the cooperation in certain sectors, it could mean if you continue to have persistent problems of implementation of the deals we have signed also the quota tariffs could come into the place but all these measures have been put into the TCA because we just wanted to be sure if something goes wrong, if we don’t live up to the agreement which we have signed then there are also cross-retaliatory measures, which we all hoped and thought we would never ever even consider so now I’m very sorry we are at this situation.”

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      My my, president Biden has issued the UK Tories with an unprecedented demarche, which is a formal diplomatic reprimand that is usually reserved for enemies, over their incalcitrant refusal to implement the NIP to which they signed up in international law. It is clear that the Tories can forget about any trade deal with USA unless it implements the NIP in full.

      > President orders official rebuke of Boris Johnson for jeopardising peace process in Northern Ireland

      Joe Biden ordered US officials to rebuke UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson for jeopardising peace in Northern Ireland because of its stand-off with the EU, it emerged on Wednesday night.

      America’s charge d’affaires to the UK, Yael Lempert, told Brexit minister Baron David Frost that the UK’s stance on the Northern Ireland Protocol was “inflaming” tensions in Ireland and Europe.

      It was a significant diplomatic intervention that threatens to overshadow the G7 summit in Cornwall, and Mr Biden’s meeting with Mr Johnson on Thursday.

      Ms Lempert is said to have issued Lord Frost with a demarche, a formal diplomatic reprimand, at a meeting on June 3 in London.

      She relayed to him Mr Biden’s “great concern” over the UK’s approach to the protocol, which was established to prevent a hard Irish border.

      A demarche is more commonly lodged with adversaries than a close ally.

      US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Thursday that resolving problems with the protocol was “critical” to protecting the Good Friday Agreement and not imperilling peace in the province.

      According to a leaked Government memo obtained by The Times, Ms Lempert said the dispute over the implementation of post-Brexit arrangements in Northern Ireland was “commanding the attention” of Mr Biden, who is a proud Irish American.

      It said that the US had urged the UK to come to a “negotiated settlement” with the EU, even if that meant making “unpopular compromises”.

      “Lempert implied that the UK had been inflaming the rhetoric by asking if we would keep it ‘cool’,” the government minutes said.

  24. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    It’s a real serious …
    “Life or death”: NZ report recommends drastic methane emissions cuts to meet climate goals
    Rebecca Falconer
    Wed, June 9, 2021, 1:57 AM
    New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said in a speech Wednesday that the climate crisis was a matter of “life or death,” as a blueprint for meeting her government’s ambitious green targets was unveiled.

    Driving the news: The Climate Commission, an independent body advising the government, outlines in its report what the country needs to do to meet its target for 2050 of producing zero carbon emissions — including reducing biogenic methane emissions by 24% to 47%, with no new household gas connections by 2025.
    Per a government statement, New Zealand is the “first country … to legislate for a price on agricultural emissions and we’e currently building the world’s only farm-level emissions measurement, management and pricing system, which will come into effect in 2025.”

    For the country to meet its methane target, herd sizes would have to decrease by 10% to 15%, according to the report.

    For biogenic methane, this means cuts of 8% by 2025, 12% by 2030 and 17% by 2035.

    It also recommends phasing out fossil-fuel-powered vehicles by 2030 to 2035, when almost all cars imported should be electric, according to the report.

    Of note: This 2035 phase-out target for sales of new internal combustion engine vehicles is in line with several other governments, including California’s.

    Oh my, cutting back the herd….does that mean you Fast Eddy?🤔

    One item NOT being looked at are Self reinforcing feedback loops already in play that will cause continued warming with or without these targets!
    But, heh, never mind the details…gives us all some hope!

    • I still have a hard time understanding why New Zealand goes along with all of this. Agriculture seems to be the country’s main source of revenue, especially if tourism is pretty much gone.

      I can sort of understand the “phasing out fossil-fuel-powered vehicles by 2030 to 2035, when almost all cars imported should be electric,” because Figure 10 in the article shows the huge per capita amount of imported oil used. This would need to increase over time.

      • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

        Feeding people found to emit far more greenhouse gases than once thought
        Andrew Freedman
        Wed, June 9, 2021, 7:30
        Emissions of planet-warming greenhouse gases from activities connected to growing and consuming food have been significantly underestimated, and may be twice as large as previously thought, new research finds.

        Why it matters: Agriculture is already known to be one of the largest contributors to human-caused global warming. If the sector’s emissions are larger than thought, it could mean the world will see more warming than anticipated.

        Stay on top of the latest market trends and economic insights with Axios Markets. Subscribe for free

        Driving the news: Through a series of research reports and commentary published in the journal Environmental Research Letters on Tuesday, scientists mapped out which parts of the food system are the most emissions intensive, which provides a blueprint for prioritizing emissions reduction efforts.

        The analysis of global food system emissions finds that activities connected to food production and consumption — everything from chopping down forests to clear land for cattle to transporting food from a farm to the grocery store, amounted to the equivalent of 16 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2018.

        This was one-third of the human-produced total that year, with the majority coming from the burning of fossil fuels for energy. It was also an increase of about 8% compared to 1990.

        The analysis, which includes country-specific emissions inventories, was produced by scientists at the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, NASA, New York University, and Columbia University.

        The findings: The study looks at all emissions linked to the life cycle of food, from growing it to putting it on your plate. It therefore considers emissions from food-adjacent activities.

        Researchers found that the largest source of food system-related emissions between 1990-2018 was converting natural ecosystems to agricultural croplands or pastures, at about 3 billion metric tons per year.

        During the 1990 to 2018 study period, land use change emissions decreased while pre- and post-production emissions, which includes making fertilizers, transporting food, disposing of waste, as well as refrigeration, increased.

        Per capita emissions from food systems emissions decreased during the study period, but was nearly twice as high in developed countries as they were in the developing world.

        In total, global emissions of greenhouse gases that are connected to the food sector may comprise between 20 to 40% of global emissions, the study found.

        Boy, glad they did need include growing and cutting my yard lawn…
        From what I remember here in the USA more chemicals are used on lawns than growing crops….😉

        The self reinforcing feedback loops will help cut back on those emissions

        • You cannot grow crops with intermittent renewables. I doubt that you can refrigerate them with intermittent renewables either. Transporting them with intermittent renewables is heavy trucks is a long way off as well.

        • This is the academic report the article links to.

          Greenhouse gas emissions from food systems: building the evidence base

          One question I would ask is whether this study considers the fresh water problem. We have been draining fresh water aquifers faster than they rebuild. It will take a huge amount of energy investment just to provide adequate fresh water for today’s population. This is happening in California, Florida, India, Cuba, and almost everywhere.

      • Mike Roberts says:

        Well, there are two lines. One is that climate change is likely to cause significant hardships in the decades to come, so mitigating warming is the number one priority. The other is that livestock is a major earner for New Zealand, so we can’t do anything that would hurt that industry.

        You can pretty much guarantee that the second line will predominate as all governments prioritize the economy over all other issues (except over short periods).

        Most of this is just words but, you never know, those words might turn into some kind of action. There will likely be incentives for electric cars and for technology that can reduce emissions from livestock burps (by genetic modification of feed). But I don’t expect it to make much difference.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          IBDYBD…. you be dead i be dead…. Mother is about to vomit us into the toilet bowl

          I wouldn’t spend my last months worrying about GW… the planet will do what it has always done … man has limited impact on that…

          Even all the concrete we have poured (waiting for the truck right now to poor a slab for me…) will in the Big Picture … have zero impact

          Spend fuels ponds though… not so sure… anyway IBDYBD … so I am not concerned about those either

    • Ed says:

      Herbie please send Jacinda my plan for AI NZ.

      • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

        No problem, Bro!👍🎑. Will include how to prepare lawn grass 101 in tasty meals you will enjoy once the crops wither and die..
        Extra chapter on Tree Bark too from Kim’s North Korea Cook Book!

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Which reminds me…. time to chuck another wine box full of coal into the Rayburn.

  25. A war between the haves and have nots will not be avoidable, and the haves will have absolute zero mercy on the have nots.

    That’s how the depopulation occurs. ONly the haves, and the few who will fight for the haves, will survive. The poor will be left for dead.

    Unlike Gail and CTG, I do think a society where only about 50 million live a ‘good’ life and the rest living like pigs in mud is feasible. (Ancient Chinese, and Cheju Island in Korea, raised pigs in lactrines.)

    Most mass production will cease, but that will be compensated by higher tech production, tailor made for those who can pay. And, with less people, less need to transport goods and less need to spend more resources to raise food.

    Someone asked who would do the cultivation. The solution is the elites will fight and the losing faction becomes the slaves. It’s that simple.

    Society will end up like North Korea, with most people living in the standards of 1930s but the elites enjoying all the modern luxuries, guarded by heavily armed soldiers who will eat the crumbs.

    • There may be a war between the haves and the have-nots, but I am not certain we will recognize it as such. It will look more like protests against wage disparity and ill-treatment of minorities. Maybe other things, like new programs to control the population.

      My guess is that most of the losers in this war will die, probably of an illness rather than starvation. Their bodies will be in worse and worse shape, making them vulnerable to any harmful virus or bacteria they encounter.

      Some of the almost losers will become something like slaves. They will be called something different, perhaps something like “interns” that doesn’t carry the stigma of being a slave. Their lifestyle will not be as good as the 1930s.

      • Xabier says:

        Maybe they will be called ‘Youbies’ – living on UBI?

        It’s unfortunate that we have been civilised and live in cities: we no longer have the option of going down fighting, like ancient tribes.

        At least then one can have some self-respect, even if doomed.

        • Yorchichan says:

          You can still go down fighting, but the likelihood is you will do it alone. Finding a tribe to fight with you is the difficult part.

      • Sam says:

        Not sure there are a lot of variables going Into that hard to parse out what would happen. Think Bolshevik revolution lots can happen. The haves seem to be lacking in skills and backbone as well look at what happened after the great plague etc real skills will be in higher demand but who knows we will all be dead by then. I want to know when these markets are going to have their first crash

        • Their weaponry is formidable and their drones can find anyone and destroy potential enemies. Remember the underwater cave accident in Thailand? They can find anyone who hides in caves as well.

          The elites and their crack troops will destroy any number of people they feel like.

          I have studied the Bolshevik revolution. The Czar and his coterie were real idiots. USA is too racially divided to allow that to happen.

          • Sam says:

            Yea I thought about that too … but then again they had a hard time in Afghan war…only so much you can do without the Carthaginian solution

          • Thierry says:

            What kind of technology is behind ? How can you track someone wherever he or she is?
            I have read a book making an allusion about it, but it’s hard to imagine it working for real. The author said that the Russians had developed it. It probably involves satellites, communications spying, and very advanced IAs.

            • it probably has something to do with the microchip that Bill Gates is putting in his vaccines.

              Once everyone in the world has that embedded, then obviously they will be detectable and controllable wherever they are

            • Tim Groves says:

              At least if you go off wandering across the Pennines in your dotage, thanks to that microchip that screams “this is Norman!”, they will be able to locate you in a jiffy and bring you back home in a jiffy bag.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      There can only be so many ‘winners’ in a situation of rapidly declining energy flow. It does not really matter who those ‘winners’ are. Whoever ‘wins’ will be, by definition, the ‘winners’.

      If some of the current ‘haves’ ‘win’, then it will be them that are the ‘winners’, and they will remain the ‘haves’. If some of the present ‘have nots (so much)’ ‘win’ then they will be the ‘winners’, and they will become the ‘haves’ – and the current ‘haves’ would then become the ‘have nots (so much)’.

      The situation remains the same, whoever ‘wins’ – some ‘win’ and some ‘lose’, some are ‘haves’ and some are ‘have nots (so much)’.

      So, it is not so much a matter of that the current ‘haves’ deserve ire, or that the present ‘have nots (so much)’ deserve sympathy, as that there will be a scramble for social and economic power in the coming times, in which some will ‘win’ and some will ‘lose’.

      Whoever ‘wins’, ‘wins’, and whoever ‘loses’, ‘loses’. If the current ‘winners’ ‘lose’, then they become the ‘losers’, and if the current ‘losers’ ‘win’, then they become the ‘winners’ – who would deserve ire and sympathy then?

      It would be just a ‘churn’ in the human ecosystem, in which stronger centers of force occupy the better niches and repel the weaker, until other centers of force become stronger and they then occupy the better niches and repel the weaker. Better niche occupancy is not a ‘bad’ thing, it is what all centers of force try to do – it is the ‘prize’, the ‘good’ that all centers of force seek.

      Whether it is seen as ‘good’ for a center of force to occupy a better niche depends on the perspective of center of force, its strength and its position. Those who occupy the better niche will see that as ‘good’ – so long as they remain genuinely strong enough to occupy it, otherwise it is liable to become problematic.

      Those who do not occupy the better niche may see the occupation by another of the better niche as ‘bad’, because they want to occupy the niche themselves – it would be ‘good’ if they occupied the better niche. But the weaker may be glad simply to occupy a lower niche. The quantum of will to power, and aspiration, is the foundation of perspective.

      So, the idea is ‘win don’t whine about losing.’ Every center of force has responsibility for itself.

      And indeed the attempt to broaden the responsibility for oneself, by whining, is itself a strategy of taking responsibility for oneself, such as to extend one’s own force through the ordering of others to one’s own power cause. So, ‘whining’ is an attempt to ‘win’, which is why ‘losers’ whine – but it is better not to lose in the first place. The same goes for ire as for the ordering of sympathy, it is an attempt to organise one’s own power cause to its extension.

      It is impossible to say with any certainty who will ‘win’ in the coming energy flow reduction. Those who are powerful now, may seem to be better placed to do well in the future – but it may not work out that way. All that can said for sure is that few will ‘win’ and many will ‘lose’, whoever they happen to be. Everything in the meantime is power play – which is how the world works.

      It is likely that societies with severely reduced energy flow will revert to a more overt social stratification than we have experienced, which is the norm in all ages bar our own. Property relations and social ideology will reflect the material and energetic conditions that prevail at the time.

      Exactly who ends up ‘higher’ in the socio-economic order is besides the point – it will be whoever manages to. Eventually, after ‘churn’, all persons may become more or less ‘content’ with their place in the social order, in so far as they have one, and society may approach equilibrium and stability – for a time.

      • The fundamental difference is that today’s winners will probably be eternal, since they will transform into a new kind of being, let it be transhumans, robots or something else.

        • I wouldn’t count on today’s winners being eternal because they are a new kind of being.

          According to ancient religious teachings, “The last shall be first and the first shall be last.” Coming out ahead doesn’t necessarily lead to first place in heaven.

          I am afraid we are a long ways away from being transhumance or robots.

          • Thierry says:

            You are correct! There is a similar idea in Toism: Be like water and occupy the lowest places. The sea gets its power from being below.
            Or in Greek mythology: Those who want to fly always fall in the end (Icarus).

            • Xabier says:

              ‘Be the grass that bends safely in every wind, rather than the strong oak that splits and shatters….’

              Unfortunately, one cannot ‘bend to power’ to the extent of accepting the injections, and that is what they are demanding as the price of inclusion and ‘survival’….for a time.

      • NomadicBeer says:

        “It is likely that societies with severely reduced energy flow will revert to a more overt social stratification than we have experienced, which is the norm in all ages bar our own. ”

        Agree with everything but this is wrong. Current “rich” societies, and particularly USA, are very stratified. There was a study that showed that european medieval peasants had better social mobility than the US poor.

        Also remember that during collapse, things are in flux. So I expect less social stratification for a long time (until things settle down). That is not necessarily good – it just means the violence and disease will allow more social change.

  26. Harry McGibbs says:

    “If 2020 was the year of the pandemic, 2021 is shaping up to be the year of stressed supply chains and the shortages economy.

    “In scale and scope, unprecedented supply shortages have had a cascading impact on global supply chains and prices of key inputs.”

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      Shortages are crippling Germany’s post-Covid recovery in the wake of a shock slump for manufacturers, experts have warned…

      “Ministers blamed the upset – which leaves industrial output lagging more than 5pc below its pre-Covid level – on “a shortage of producer goods, especially semiconductors and lumber”.”

    • I see the world economy operating in a series of different phases:

      1. A growth phase, which is really an ever-slowing growth phase.

      2. Several different “shock” phases, including the 2008-2009 recession, and the 2020 recession.

      3. A shift toward a plateau (or downward growth in the supply of goods and services), created by all of supply chain problems.

      4. An extraordinarily large shock, caused by a worldwide problem with debt repayment and interchangeable money supply among countries.

      5. A shift toward much more rapid collapse, as attempts to live with much fewer imports don’t really work.

      • Xabier says:

        Nothing to argue against there, Gail.

        But I suspect that the ‘massive shock’ (4) is actually being deliberately induced by TPTB (CB’s, career politicians, WEF, Big Tech, MIC, etc) in the erroneous belief that they can manage it to their advantage and come out on top in an altered economic and social landscape.

        They will try to spin the shock as an unfortunate consequence of the fight against Covid.

        In that ambition I suspect they are deluded.

        One of the main characteristics of psychopathy is an over-reliance on deceit and manipulation, and an over-estimate of one’s own powers and cleverness.

        Psychopathy shades into and co-exists with narcissicism, and both tend to dwell in a world of fantasy and grandiosity – seeing themselves as superior ‘world-shapers’ is one instance of that.

        We are truly being played with by lunatics, as well as being subject to the laws of physics.

      • Sam says:

        Are we in the growth phase now?

        • Ed says:

          we are in step 3 plateau. may not last for long.

          • Sam says:

            Oh I was hoping that we were at step 1… a little bit of green from all the stimulus

          • I think Ed is right. Step 3, may not last long.

            • postkey says:

              So the ‘plutocracy’ {which, through its control of the media and the political process eg J. Corbyn in the UK?, remains unchallenged?} deliberately {or at the request of W.H.G.?} makes thousands of young people unemployed and threaten huge food shortages?
              Insurrection anyone?

      • Craig says:

        My thoughts too

        • Sam says:

          I wonder when we will hit #4? My gut says 2023 but my brain says by the end of the summer or fall.

          • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

            #4 has the interesting potential that the shocks/crises will be more frequent and bigger/stronger. My gut says after 2023, my brain says after 2023. Are there any other optimists in the house?

  27. postkey says:

    “Don’t expect the world economy to resume its prior growth pattern after COVID-19”
    ‘Someone’ disagrees?
    ‘ “G7 economies have the fiscal space to speed up their recoveries to not only reach pre-COVID levels of GDP but also to support a return to pre-pandemic growth paths,” Yellen said. “This is why we continue to urge a shift in our thinking from ‘let’s not withdraw support too early’ to ‘what more can we do now.'” ‘

  28. Harry McGibbs says:

    Worth keeping an eye on, as high food prices are already an issue: “Spring wheat issues mount as US drought spreads…

    “The dryness in the northern latitudes of the US has been building for months, and the long-range forecasters say the weather pattern appears to be setting up for a longer-term blocking ridge across the northern Plains… Just across the border, the extremely dry climatic conditions are exacerbating an already dire situation for the Canadian spring wheat farmer…

    “The Russian wheat areas at similar latitudes are also in trouble. About 50pc of their spring wheat belt is suffering from an intense drought that has hampered germination and crop establishment. The month of May for Russia’s spring wheat areas is reported to have been the second driest in the last 40 years.

    “The potential impact on global wheat production is mounting.”

  29. Fast Eddy says:

    One of the most vaccinated countries on the planet… yet… YET!!!

  30. Fast Eddy says:

    Lab Made

    Medical doctor Steven Quay and Emeritus Professor Richard Muller have written an article in the Wall Street Journal in which they set out what they believe to be “the most compelling reason to favour the lab leak hypothesis”. It is the fact that SARS-CoV-2 has a genetic feature that has never been observed in natural SARS-like coronaviruses, but which is the preferred feature for scientists when engineering viruses in the lab. It’s preferred because it is simpler and more familiar for lab workers, and also because it can then be used as a tell-tale marker of the engineered virus when tracking it in the lab.

    The genome of SARS-CoV-2 includes as part of its genetic coding of the spike protein a sequence known as “double CGG” (CGG-CGG) that codes for two “arginine” amino acids in a row. Quay and Muller explain that there are 35 other possibilities that could occur in this location, known as the “furin cleavage site”, which would not disadvantage the virus in any way so are equally likely to be selected for by natural fitness. Furthermore, viruses often evolve by picking up genetic code from other viruses (known as recombination), but since double CGG doesn’t exist in nature for SARS-like viruses (or didn’t before SARS-CoV-2) this common route of picking it up is not available, making its appearance in a new coronavirus even less likely.

    On the other hand, double CGG is the most commonly used sequence for lab workers when engineering the furin cleavage site in gain-of-function research, because it is readily available and familiar and can then be used to track the engineered virus.

    There is also evidence the Wuhan scientists tried to conceal this genetic smoking gun. When the Wuhan Institute of Virology’s “bat woman” Dr Shi Zhengli and colleagues published a paper in February 2020 with the virus’s partial genome, the double-CGG furin cleavage site section was in the part of the genome omitted (though could be seen in the accompanying data).

    The double-CGG furin cleavage site is often used in gain-of-function engineering to make a virus more infectious or virulent. “Humanised” mice are typically then repeatedly exposed to the engineered virus in order to accelerate the process of adaptation to humans. If the virus did originate through this kind of research it would therefore explain why there is no evidence of this adaptation occurring in nature for SARS-CoV-2, unlike with SARS-1.

    A further point of interest is that the U.S. National Security Council, after reading an April 2020 paper in which Chinese military researchers studied SARS-CoV-2 using humanised mice, deduced that the mice involved must have been engineered some time during summer 2019, prior to the pandemic, raising questions about the reasons they had been engineered and what they were being used for at the time SARS-CoV-2 emerged in the autumn of 2019.

    The evidence for a lab leak origin during gain-of-function research is looking more compelling by the day.

    • postkey says:

      “I remember the headlines of many months ago and there was the fact that six months before the Wuhan outbreak, strings of COVID RNA data were found in the sewer water in France. Oh NO!
      Then, in November, people in France had tested blood positive for COVID weeks BEFORE the Wuhan outbreak. A better argument could be made that France was the source of the COVID outbreak.”
      “COVID-19 circulating in Italy as early as September 2019, scientists claim
      Patients in a cancer trial were found to have developed coronavirus antibodies months before the first official case in China.”

      • Xabier says:

        It was the China-origin story which made many of us suspect that the outbreak was in fact very dangerous and was just being covered up by China and the evil CCP.

        Some frightening videos ‘from Wuhan’, followed by hysterical Bergamo medics ‘warning the world’, and the propaganda job was done, the stage was set for the Great Covid Fraud…….

    • Azure Kingfisher says:

      Narrative 1: SARS-CoV-2 has a natural origin.

      Narrative 2: SARS-CoV-2 was artificially created and leaked from a lab.

      Narrative 3: SARS-CoV-2 does not exist.

      I’m inclined towards Narrative 3. It makes the scamdemic that much funnier and reveals the extent to which the global population can be deceived. It represents perhaps the largest con ever conceived and executed by mankind – truly global in scope.

      From “The Wuhan “lab-leak” story: more fear porn”:

      “It’s pretty clear that the entire Covid19 ‘pandemic’ narrative is undergoing a shift, a change in focus that will both reinforce the idea the virus is definitely real/frightening, and re-frame China to play the heel.

      “The problems with this narrative were perfectly summed up by our friends over at the Consent Factory, home of satirist-in-residence CJ Hopkins and a Twitter must-follow. We’ve transcribed their brilliant Twitter thread below.

      * * *

      “The lab-leak story is:

      “an out for those who haven’t wanted to face the fallout of covering the actual Covid story (i.e., manipulation of definitions and statistics to generate the illusion of an apocalyptic plague) and a reification of that illusion.

      “If they can get you to focus on how the ‘monster virus’ may have ‘escaped from a lab’ (like in a sci-fi movie)… maybe you’ll forget about Sweden, Florida, Texas, etc.

      “If they can get you to focus on how the ‘monster virus’ may have ‘escaped from a lab’ (like in a sci-fi movie)… maybe you will forget how they redefined a medical ‘case’ to include perfectly healthy people, and then reported an explosion of ‘cases.’

      “If they can get you to focus on how the ‘monster virus’ may have ‘escaped from a lab’ (like in a sci-fi movie)… maybe you’ll totally forget how they defined a ‘Covid hospitalization’ as anyone in hospital, for any reason, who tested positive with a PCR test jacked up to 40 or 50.

      “If they can get you to focus on how the ‘monster virus’ may have ‘escaped from a lab’ (like in a sci-fi movie)… maybe you’ll totally forget how they defined a ‘Covid death’ as anyone who died, of any cause, who tested positive with a PCR test within the previous 28 days.

      “If they can get you to focus on how the ‘monster virus’ may have ‘escaped from a lab’ (like in a sci-fi movie)…maybe you’ll forget how they suddenly decided that herd immunity had never existed, and could only be achieved with an experimental ‘vaccine.’

      “If they can get you to focus on how the ‘monster virus’ may have ‘escaped from a lab’ (like in a sci-fi movie)… maybe you’ll forget how they showed us fake photos of ‘people dropping dead in the streets from Covid’ back when the Shock and Awe campaign began.

      “If they can get you to focus on how the ‘monster virus’ may have ‘escaped from a lab’ (like in a sci-fi movie)… maybe you’ll forget how they terrorized everyone with pictures of ‘death trucks.’

      “If they can get you to focus on how the ‘monster virus’ may have ‘escaped from a lab’ (like in a sci-fi movie)… maybe you’ll forget all the empty ‘emergency Covid hospitals.’

      “If they can get you to focus on how the ‘monster virus’ may have ‘escaped from a lab’ (like in a sci-fi movie)…maybe you’ll forget the totally non-apocalyptic age-adjusted deaths rates.

      “And so on…

      “But, whatever, forget all those facts, and enjoy the lab-leak story. It probably happened just like in the movies!”

      • I am afraid it does exist and was created in a lab.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I do like that OFF-G tries to push the boundaries…

        But I am not sure what their position is on the Big Picture … I will assume they think it’s Big Pharma making money – a Great Reset — or control.

        I am quite certain they are not on Team CEP. Few are… to join this team is to give up all hope for the future (even a chipped future is to many better than extinction)

        ‘Suffice to say, there’s very little evidence to support the idea the virus known as Sars-Cov-2 was developed in a lab. And, given its low death rate, no reason at all to fear it even if it were.’

        They have dismissed Team Bossche… without even acknowledging them… they have also ignored Team Yeadon (why would you give an experiment to children and healthy people who are not at risk from Covid)…

        That is a very feeble article.

      • Azure Kingfisher says:

        Edwards: “Why the big secret? People are smart. They can handle it.”

        Kay: “A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it. Fifteen hundred years ago everybody knew the Earth was the center of the universe. Five hundred years ago, everybody knew the Earth was flat, and fifteen minutes ago, you knew that humans were alone on this planet. Imagine what you’ll know tomorrow.”

        Men In Black (1997)

        Not long ago everyone knew that SARS-CoV-2 existed and was natural in origin. In fact, it was considered heresy to even suggest that SARS-CoV-2 was artificially created in a Chinese lab (“How dare you!” and “That’s racist!”).
        Now, it appears that everyone knows that SARS-CoV-2 was artificially created in a Chinese lab. The new heresy will be the assertion that SARS-CoV-2 never existed at all. “How dare you!” “My grandmother died of COVID-19!” “I had COVID-19 and it was the worst experience of my life!” “I have a friend who got COVID toes!” “You really don’t want long COVID! Go get your shot!”
        This heresy will be forgotten for the most part, though, as the world will settle comfortably into this latest narrative shift and feel self-satisfied.

        I wonder, at what point was it no longer considered heresy to conclude that there never were any weapons of mass destruction in Iraq prior to the US invasion?

        “Lie by Lie: A Timeline of How We Got Into Iraq”

        “But the blame for Iraq does not end with Cheney, Bush, or Rumsfeld. Nor is it limited to the intelligence operatives who sat silent as the administration cherry-picked its case for war, or with those, like Colin Powell or Hans Blix, who, in the name of loyalty or statesmanship, did not give full throat to their misgivings. It is also shared by far too many in the Fourth Estate, most notably the New York Times‘ Judith Miller. But let us not forget that it lies, inescapably, with we the American people, who, in our fear and rage over the catastrophic events of September 11, 2001, allowed ourselves to be suckered into the most audacious bait and switch of all time.”

        As for the Compassionate Extinction Plan (CEP), they don’t need a genuine SARS-CoV-2 virus to carry it out. What they need is for people to believe that a deadly virus is spreading throughout the world and that the only way to end the crisis is to take one of their injections.

        Which is a better position for them to be in? Consider which would provide greater control of outcome while minimizing risk to themselves?

        1. Releasing a bioweapon in 2019/20 in order to scare the global population into taking their injections.

        2. Promoting a fictional yet convincing narrative 24/7 using global telecommunications tools – a narrative itself that spreads like a virus, “infecting” everyone’s minds – in order to scare the global population into taking their injections.

  31. Fast Eddy says:

    NHS GP resigns and speaks out on COVID-19 lies …

  32. Tim Groves says:

    Are we in the middle of a mass psychosis? You bet!

    “All one’s neighbors are in the grip of some uncontrolled and uncontrollable fear. . . In lunatic asylums it is a well-known fact that patients are far more dangerous when suffering from fear than when moved by rage and hatred.” According to the psychologist Carl Jung, the greatest threat to civilization lies not with the forces of nature, nor with any physical disease, but with our inability to deal with the forces of our own psyche. We are our own worst enemies. Or as the Latin proverb puts it, “Man is a wolf to man.” In Civilization in Transition, Jung states that this proverb is a sad yet eternal truism. . .

    Two examples of mass psychoses are the American and European witch hunts in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries and the rise of totalitarianism in the twentieth century. During the witch hunts, thousands of individuals, mostly women, were killed not for any crimes they committed, but because they became the scapegoats of societies gone mad.

    In some Swiss villages, there were scarcely any women left alive after the frenzy had finally burned itself out.

    The totalitarian systems of the twentieth century are a more recent and a more deadly example of a mass psychosis. In countries such as the Soviet Union, Nazi Germany, Norht Korea, China, and Cambodia, it was a collective detachment from reality and a decent into delusions and paranoia that permitted the rise of the all-powerful totalitarian governments that destroyed the lives of hundreds of millions.

    The totalitarian systems of the twentieth century represent a kind of collective psychosis. Whehter gradually or suddenly, reason and common human decency are no longer possible in such a system: there is only a pervasive atmosphere of terror, and a projection of “the enemy,” imagined to be “in our midst.” Thus society turns on itself, urged on by the ruling authorities. What makes matters worse is that those suffering from a mass psychosis are unaware of what is occurring.

    12 and a half minutes!

    • Not enough resources to go around means that some segment of the population needs to be eliminated.

      Young women have a double impact on resource use: (a) Their own resource use, and (b) Their ability to have children.

      It is not at all surprising that the mass psychoses target young women.

      • Ed says:

        What makes young women attractive is subcutaneous fat. A sign that they can carry a fetus and feed it when born. I wonder if in hard times young women are unable to eat enough to put on the needed fat deposits and so become targets with no male defenders.

        • when a woman reaches a certain level of food deprivation, she stops ovulating

          nature’s way of reducing the chances of unsupportable kids being born

  33. Fast Eddy says:

    There are no limits to idiocy…. I’d recommend boing with billion dollar prizes…. what does it matter when everything is going to zero soon….

    Residents who get vaccinated before June 15 could win prizes from gift cards to $1.5 million cash

  34. Fast Eddy says:

    Off Guardian … is the opposite of DuncNORM. The people behind this site are seriously deep thinkers.

    Their latest: Is this + the offlining of a wide range of MSM sites… meant to vilify crypto… and destroy it? It’s typical of the Elders… use false flags to further an agenda.

    What I can say is that the excuses for the MSM going offline are BS… no way loads of other sites would not have been impacted at the same time. It does appear that someone wanted to rarget some high profile sites… and the fact that none of the IT people are saying what I am saying… is suspicious….

    • geno mir says:

      It is rehearsal for the time when the whole internet will be put offline.

  35. Fast Eddy says:

    Huge swaths of mainstream news sites, and other major online services, have all gone down within minutes of each other this morning.

    The Guardian, BBB, New York Times, The Independent, CNN, Buzzfeed, the New Yorker and other outlets are all returning 503 errors. And major service sites such as Twitch, Amazon and PayPal are down too.

    The early theorising was that some massive “cyber-attack” has taken place, but there’s no hard evidence of this being the case as yet. No official statements have been made.

  36. Downunder says:

    Perhaps we will be able to determine if there is a force behind what is happening or we are just part of a self organising organism that is pushed and pulled by internal forces by what happens with the spent nuclear fuel. if there is a controlling force then they will have to deal with the spent fuel while there is still a working system because there will be no guarantees after a depopulation event. So the next months or perhaps years (because this has held together longer than expected) should give us the answer.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Might be the controlling force programmed in the spent fuel to ensure extermination….

      Just as the force created the Van Allen Belts to keep us from every leaving Earth.

      • Tim Groves says:

        I thought Van Allen created the belts to keep his trousers up.

        Here’s an interesting biopic on Van the Man.

    • Perhaps there is a different kind of literal higher power behind all what is happening. Everything happens in strange ways. A self-organizing system, powered by energy, is not anything any of us would have figured out.

  37. NomadicBeer says:

    An Irish techie talking about the future of Europe. Basically as authoritarian as China but with UBI (remember the leak?)

    Note: he is not aware of the energy problem, just the effects. For example, airports are closing in Ireland and he blames the “Green Agenda”. Oh and he calls WEF “communists” (oh, the irony!).

    That being said it’s a good insight to the old world. He also has a good video on the cyber attacks.

    • Was gonna say.. must be Dave Cullen!

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “(remember the leak?)” Yes I do. I’m sure its failures are mounting, thus its dissappearance from this comments section. ………………………………………………………………………………………………….. oooh is that video CT? woah, I better not watch, or the grumpy old man might reappear. Anyone care to post a highlight/lowlight?

      • NomadicBeer says:

        ” I’m sure its failures are mounting, thus its dissappearance from this comments section.”

        Maybe, but I prefer to look at the data. How many countries were seriously debating UBI in 2019? How many are now?

        The leak might be wrong, or the plan might fail but at least in Canada they are getting closer to an UBI and also have some of the strictest lockdowns in the world.

        It’s easy to dismiss predictions. I treat them as models, do you have a better one? I will be happy to hear it and check back in one year.

        • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

          my informal model is that energy is the base of all human activity, and thus FF supply will greatly determine the future. I think FF is down about 5% from its recent peak, and will be about the same level a year from now. So Core countries will have about the same economic level next June. Hope to see you then.

    • D. Stevens says:

      I’ve commented on his videos before saying something like the ‘Green Agenda’ is cover for resource limits and the ‘elites’ would like to have a controlled demolition of energy usage starting with wasteful things such as air travel for the masses. Believe he understands this but never talks about it from that angle probably because it would upset his fanbase which think they can get back to increasing living standards if the free market could be left to run without interference from nefarious elites.

  38. Artleads says:

    efficiency of supply chains

    I did a glancing search and saw there were articles on the efficiency of supply chains. Gail’s post on the breakdown of demand for lumber touches on a supply issue I’ve been considering.

    Intuitively considering supply chain and complexity as they affect producing commercial wooden sheds, I can’t see any practical reason why these shouldn’t be the only forms of housing sanctioned by government policy. And considering the vast increase in lumber housing product that enables, why there should be any downsizing (overall) of lumber production.

    • The number of new homes being built in the United States is down by an amazing amount since about 2006. See Figure 5 in the current post. I can see what there would be a major cutback in the amount of wood being produced for the home-building industry.

      When I visited lightly inhabited areas of Wyoming, homes seem to have been built out of metal. Some of them were prefab buildings (double-wide trailers). Wyoming doesn’t have a lot of trees.

      • Artleads says:


        This is due to considerations of 1) complexity avoidance, 2) efficiency of supply lines.

        Complexity Avoidance and Efficiency of Supply Lines:
        – Has to do with sheds often not needing permits.
        – Sheds necessitating very minimal land space.
        – Efficiency of supply lines increases system and reduces waste.
        – Both would decrease cost and enable almost ubiquitous housing to be established.
        – Ubiquitous housing would stabilize society and increase demand.
        – Both are inconsistent with the “real estate” economy that (IMO) is the the centerpiece of the global financial empire, and which is said to be crumbling. If it is crumbling, a non complexity model that is also efficient (and that might be able to hold its supply chain with public support) is the only sane program for minimizing chaos and suffering.

        Any other kind of housing should be left to its own devices, absent of public support.

    • Student says:

      About supply chain current problems, I received further news of severe conjestion at Yantian port (which is a huge export port). From the article, the described little problems about new Covid-19 cases just seem an excuse to actually cover other problems.

      Please see here:


    • D. Stevens says:

      Sheds are like a scaled down version of suburbia. I wonder how these compare energy wise to tenement apartment blocks. Where I live most of the pre-oil housing stock are large wooden or brick multifamily units within walking distance to the factories which were located on rivers. There are also also farm houses scattered about where the farms use to be which have been filled in with car dependent McMansion housing. I’m in Massachusetts and most of these towns were established prior to the oil age so it’s interesting to see all the sprawl from the construction from the last 100 years vs everything prior to that.

      • Xabier says:

        The same in my English village: a 17th-century core (which is when many old villages were rebuilt as England became wealthier through trade and piracy) around a 12th-century church, a few Victorian houses, mostly attached to smallholdings, and very small cottages for estate workers, and a mushroom expansion post-WW2 of working-class and average middle-class housing. Now another burst of 130 crappy houses is planned. The first settlement was Roman, at the latest.

      • Artleads says:

        Why is a shed like suburbia? A shed is one tiny unit, while suburbia is houses, lawn, roads and malls. I wrote the following earlier, and forgot to hit send,

        Sheds depend on IC (Industrial Civilization). That helps to ground them in reality. But they operate at the very economical boundary of IC. Modules to be assembled need no refrigeration for shipping. The tools for assembly are very low on the complexity scale. As the Tiny House movement grows, sheds for living in become normalized. Sheds are generally easy to hide behind existing old buildings, having minor influence on view sheds and neighborhood aesthetics. They tend to have a skeleton whereby walls and roof intervals could be removed to make greenhouses. Building-as-usual rates poorly by the above criteria. The time has come to stop it 100% dead in its tracks.

        • D. Stevens says:

          Sheds are like suburbia because they do not share walls, they are free standing units occupying a lot more land and require their own heating/cooling/water systems. To me it seems like a way to scale down suburbia where we can each own our own place. When I look at prior ages or low energy places today larger structures which house many people together sharing walls appears to be more efficient and they have longer lifespans than a shed. I value privacy and quiet so I’d rather live in a shed than a crowded tenement dormitory type place with shared bathrooms and kitchens.

          • Artleads says:

            Thanks for clarifying your points.

            Before OFW, I would have had fewer (if any) intellectual tools to counter you with. I would have had to rely solely on intuition.

            So here is a most minimal (OFW-derived) assessment of costs/energy issues I think you’re overlooking:

            – the foundation cost of large building complexes–seemingly as deep as the structure is tall.

            – the inability of large buildings to move if climate or economic changes turn them into stranded assets.

            – the complexity costs of heating or cooling large buildings (size and complexity tend to correspond).

            – there is no physical reason for sheds to be exposed on four sides; even if privacy demands an easily constructed and cheap buffer structure between them in the space where the eaves touch.

            – sheds can avoid most or all the infrastructure–water pipes, A/C, electric conduits, etc. that large units require.

            – suburbia requires roads; sheds do not (and can easily find space in any levels of rural, suburban or urban setting; they are too small to matter).

            • Sheds are typically used to store tools or other items used rarely. They are not for living in. They typically lack windows. Without water or sewer connections, they are problematic for people to live in. They have no cooking facilities, so are unsuitable for living in from this point of view. Sheds are only a single story high; if a country is short of agricultural land, it will want to stack its housing units as high as possible.

            • Artleads says:

              I saw an add for a shed (same dimensions as mine) that had windows. Anyway, from careful listening to the macro economic thesis of OFW, I don’t see what else is affordable.

            • Artleads says:

              Norman P says:

              “beds in sheds are very real in uk”

              They are being widely used on one CA city I hear about. It’s a new phenomenon as new immigrants proliferate. Old timers complain at the disorder of it. The City Council must have its mind elsewhere, since they don’t appear deeply concerned and provide no constructive alternatives.

              What I’m trying to do with sheds is face the housing crisis head on and manage it to the best extent possible. For instance, if housing goes with tourism (perhaps of the “disaster variety”) residents might be able to sell enough junk to make pocket money. But the basics would need to come from churches, schools, government…

              The hope is that if people can make a little money in a managed way, the society can gain a bit more taxes.

              And all the desperately homeless don’t have the same level of skills and education. Differentiations for strategic purposes have to be made among them. The average pauperized college student can be treated very differently from the average alcoholic drop out.

            • the reality of ‘beds in sheds’ is that if the local authority closed them, they would have thousands of homeless people on their hands,
              So they don’t other than maybe a few of the very worst ones.

              The better ones look ok–decent ‘tiny homes’–perfectly usable. Certainly more than a ‘shed’. I pass some of them regularly on my main route in and out of London

              It is likely in the future, that hotel rooms will become available as tourism dries up. (this has already happened in some UK holiday resorts which few people visit any more)

              Hotels will become unsustainable in a real business sense, so rooms will be used to dump homeless people for basic shelter.

              I leave it to your imagination as to what will happen as basic services go down….

  39. MG says:

    A small piece of history:

    Today, when planting watermelons, I found such Austro-Hungarian coin from 1800:

    • These coins do “hang around” without deteriorating. I image a lot of what we leave lying around will still be there 200 years later, too.

  40. Mirror on the wall says:

    Summer has arrived in the shires, and it has been a glorious day. I will not be taking any carbs in this heat – a late evening meal should do me for the day, after a portion of mussels for lunch. It is important to maintain a civilised mood in this heat, which is easier away from the bustle of the urban centers.

    This is Alfred Brendel playing Schubert, my favourite Schubertian. He was resident in London for decades, and he retired from public performance in 2008. He recorded the Beethoven sonata cycle three times, the first to ever record a complete cycle. His Schubert is my favourite, though. I have spoilt myself with his entire discography dating over decades.

  41. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    Weight loss, diet, exercise, …lots of posts recently on this topic..
    Breaking News…FDA approved….

    Wegovy, a weight-management therapy to be manufactured by Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk, is the the first FDA-approved weight-loss drug since 2014, but it’s not entirely a new medication.
    The same drug, called semaglutide, has been used in the US and other countries as an anti-diabetic medication for years. More recently, however, evidence has shown that semaglutide at a different dosage also functions as a powerful and effective appetite-suppressant.
    In a study published earlier in the year involving almost 2,000 obese adults from 16 different countries, researchers reported that long-term treatment with the medicine led to almost 15 percent weight loss on average across the cohort.
    Some lost even more, with over 30 percent of the group dropping in excess of 20 percent of their body weight – results that the scientists singled out as remarkable.
    “No other drug has come close to producing this level of weight loss – this really is a game-changer,” obesity researcher Rachel Batterham from University College London said at the time.
    “For the first time, people can achieve through drugs what was only possible through weight-loss surgery.”

    See, Medical science and drugs come to the rescue once again to keep us alive!

  42. Minority Of One says:

    I had seen articles by CJ Hopkins (who lives in Germany) on the Automatic Earth before but don’t actually remember reading them. That link posted earlier by NomadicBeer:

    contains several articles that would highly suggest history is repeating itself, and Germany is already a totalitarian state. CJ uses dark humour to try and add some light, and avoid arrest.

    Similarly the UK. ‘UK Column’, an online alternative news channel founded in 2006 that has been focusing on CV19 the last 18 months or so, did a feature on 23 rd April, explaining that the UK govt is trying to shut down the station:

    UK Column News – 23rd April 2021

    The govt tried to shut them down previously in 2014, and failed. Mid-April 2021 UK Column did an extended interview with someone who had a close family member that died after being vaxxed. This is not an unusual theme for UK Column News. What seems to have caught the UK govts anger was that the video was posted on a conservative blog and went viral. UK Column News can do what they like, as long as very few people watch / listen to them. But getting the attention of a mainstream blog, alas a Tory blog, not acceptable.

    The govt attempt to shut down UK Column in April failed again. The govt department that made the attempt botched the job and was shut down. But yesterday’s UK Column News discussed new legislation currently going through the UK parliament that will make it easy for the authorities to shut down UK Column, and all other alternative online news / blog sites reporting on the ‘pandemic’ and the vaxxines. I get the impression from CJ Hopkins posts that such reporting is already illegal in Germany. I am not sure that UK Column will still be reporting by year’s end. They were permanently kicked off of YT a few weeks ago, how I first heard of them.

    Scotland is worse. Craig Murray, the former British ambassador to Uzbekistan turned human rights activist and online journalist, attended and reported in detail the court trials of Julian Assange and Alex Salmond (former leader of the Scottish National Party and our former ‘First minister’). Alex had a trial by jury, Julian did not. Julian found guilty. Alex was found not guilty on all charges of sexual assault, 9 out of 12 members of the jury were female. Not a single person in the mainstream media reported the defence case, whereas Craig did in a lot of detail, making clear that many if not most of the 10 women making charges were lying – the large majority of the defence witnesses were female and wholly contradicted the accusers. Craig was himself charged on trumped up charges of so-called ‘jigsaw identification’ of one of the accusers, no jury, judge only, found guilty and sentenced to 8 months in prison, for first offence. He is in his 60s and suffering from ill health. He is not in jail yet, there is an appeal ongoing (to the Supreme court in England!).

    • MM says:

      As I sid: an IP Adress can not so easy be wiped out.
      A DNS Record can.
      Many sites do not work on IP Adresses.
      Sorry. TYS
      (Told you so)
      I think this will be the meme for the next decade…
      oops I think that LBRY is applicable for blog posts and videos…

  43. Sam says:

    I think you are right Jeff snider on podcast “making sense “ has said that same thing. They have to keep perceptions up and minimize the panic as much as possible. Right now people are feeling rich because their house value and 401k value is way up.

  44. From the WSJ: A Commodities Crunch Caused by Stingy Capital Spending Has No Quick Fix
    Limited inventory of resources is converging with a buying spree to supercharge prices, spurring inflation concerns

    American lumber mills haven’t kept up with home-building demand, leading lumber prices to roughly double year-over-year.

    Languishing commodity prices led producers to slash capital spending on major resources by nearly half over the last decade, shrinking stocks of industrial metals to two-decade lows and reducing supplies across commodities. The crunch is now converging with a buying spree in key markets to supercharge prices—and there is no quick fix.

    Margins have been too low on many kinds of commodities (due to diminishing returns) for producers to make adequate investment. No wonder we are having a crunch everywhere at once.

  45. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    Fast Eddy is Right Again…can it be otherwise?🤪👍

    Tribe lives sustainably for 5,000 years…open to new members…cash only🤑💸💵

    Victoria Gill – Science correspondent, BBC News
    Tue, June 8, 2021, 4:31 AM
    A study that dug into the history of the Amazon Rainforest has found that indigenous people lived there for millennia with “causing no detectable species losses or disturbances”.

    Scientists working in Peru searched layers of soil for microscopic fossil evidence of human impact.

    They found that forests were not “cleared, farmed, or otherwise significantly altered in prehistory”.

    The research is published in the journal PNAS

    • Artleads says:

      So we have to get back to that system. Instead of relying mainly on nature for sustenance, we have to rely on the surfeit of discard now creating mountains of landfill and oceans full of garbage. The thought that all this stuff can be used up in the foreseeable future would be very odd. In the hundreds or thousands of years it would take to use up this trash the human population could be decreasing while the remaining biosphere could be increasing. The point is to leave the biosphere be, and focus on the trash.

      • I am not convinced that the trash will be safe to use. Too much pollution from heavy metals, for example.

        • Artleads says:

          I’d bet that cardboards, latex paint and white glue are GENERALLY less toxic than heavy metals or plastic? That they are lumped together in landfills is probably somewhere change could be applied? Paper (which I imagine isn’t in the category of heavy metals) is the most voluminous material in landfills. It doesn’t need to be mixed in to the same “governance” system as heavy metals or nuclear waste.

          Our governance system seems to say, all these materials are best kept out of sight and out of mind, and we can go on harvesting renewals from nature for all we care.

          There certainly could be a more practical system than that!

          I’m assuming that lowering the population is not a negotiable.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Spent Fuel Ponds

    • I will bet the population remained low, as well.

    • MM says:

      As far as I understand this, we are a BAB species.
      If we are sapient, from the boom we might want ro take something down to the Bust.
      It is possible, the monasteries did it after the roman empire.
      We will see.
      Are you actually building a monastery?
      That is the question imho.

      • Artleads says:

        I think there’s a lot of self organization in what species settle for. Monasteries of sorts appear to help conserve information, order and other resources?

        But other types of organization could do similarly–warlords, Dons, etc.

        The Prince (Macchiavelli) has to pull out or add a few elements that preclude or mandate certain behaviors. The Prince must also look for dots that need connecting to make the system flow optimally. But the Prince does not supply the dots, or know in advance what they will be.

        Just the same, I doubt that self organization is the answer to everything.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      This new study seems to concern three remote sites, and the conclusion is that they were less occupied. The dominant tree species in the Amazon seems to have been planted by humans, and it is argued elsewhere that the Amazon is ‘secondary forest’ that has been shaped by humans. The title that the BBC gave the article may be misleading.

      From the same article:

      …. Dr Piperno’s discoveries also inform an ongoing debate about how much the Amazon’s vast, diverse landscape was shaped by indigenous people.

      Some research has suggested the landscape was actively, intensively shaped by indigenous peoples before the arrival of Europeans in South America. Recent studies have even shown that the tree species that now dominates the forest was planted by prehistoric human inhabitants.

      …. They examined the soil at three sites in a remote part of north-eastern Peru…. They searched each sediment layer for microscopic plant fossils called phytoliths – tiny records of what grew in the forest over thousands of years. “We found very little sign of human modification over 5,000 years,” said Dr Piperno.

      “So I think we have a good deal of evidence now, that those off-river forests were less occupied and less modified.”

      “But it’s like assembling a puzzle of ridiculous extent where studies like this are slowly building evidence that either supports or contradicts the theory that the Amazonia of today is a large secondary forest after thousands of years of human management,” she said. “It will be fascinating to see which side ends up with most conclusive evidence.”

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      The abstract of the paper makes clear the structure of the argument: no ancient human occupation of the remote region has been documented or proven, and yet the undisturbed region proves that humans lived there without effecting the environment – definitely not a QED. It is amazing what gets through peer review.

      “…. This indicates pre-Columbian occupations, if documented in the region with future research, did not significantly increase the abundance of those species through management or cultivation…. Rather, it appears that over the last 5,000 y, indigenous populations in this region coexisted with, and helped maintain, large expanses of relatively unmodified forest, as they continue to do today.”

      It continues to describe the situation elsewhere in the Amazon:

      “Empirical data accumulated during the past 10 to 20 y have made it clear that during the late Holocene beginning about 3,000 y ago dense, permanent settlements with considerable cultural complexity had developed along major watercourses and some of their tributaries, in seasonal savannas/areas of poor drainage, and in seasonally dry forest. These populations exerted significant, sometimes profound, regional-scale impacts on landscapes, including with raised agricultural fields, fish weirs, mound settlements, roads, geometric earthworks called geoglyphs, and the presence of highly modified anthropic soils, called terra pretas or ‘Amazonian Dark Earths’.”

      There is no question that ancient human occupation altered the rain forest, the debate is how widespread the ancient human impact was to the structure of the overall place.

      This paper concerns a remote region, that has no evidence of human occupation; it observes that humans do not seem to have affected that region, and then bizarrely concludes that ancient humans lived there without changing it much (!), even though it is known that ancient humans profoundly changed the regions that they are known to have occupied.

      The BBC has then run the headline that humans ‘lived sustainably for 5000 years in the Amazon’ – and readers say, ‘that is how we ought to live, like the Amazonians!’

      It is a bit silly, really. The effect seems to be to push the ‘sustainability’ narrative, with a basically fake paper.

      • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

        Oh may, Fast Eddy will be most disappointed 😞☹️ silly me, I was hoping to help Mister Eddy relocating to a safe haven with a tribe that could worship his most intelligent supreme self away from the Spent fuel roads..
        My bad
        PS Just DONT hand those tribe people any catalogs of BAU merchandise!
        They will want to obtain that stuff and in order to get the money. Will have to sell their land rights and immigrate to an overcrowded city and then try to find a job to continue buying BAU stuff!

  46. Harry McGibbs says:

    “A New Way To Hide Debt…Again. “Non-Commenced leases” are the new version of operating leases, an accounting loophole that companies used to hide debt off-balance sheet prior to Accounting Standards Update (ASU) 2016-02.

    “This new accounting trick is another in the long history of companies exploiting loopholes in Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) to manage earnings and make it more difficult for investors to understand the true profitability of a firm.”

  47. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Kremlin may restrict more food exports to shield it from high prices…

    “Maxim Reshetnikov, minister of economic development, told the Financial Times that Russia, one of the world’s biggest grain exporters, was considering how to best support its food exports while protecting domestic consumers from rising prices.”

  48. Fast Eddy says:


    As India’s coronavirus hell eases, new killers emerge

    Symptoms and complications not typically seen in Covid-19 patients have been linked by doctors in India to the so-called delta variant

    In an alarming development, it also appears to be infecting more children – and causing a rare inflammatory syndrome that attacks their vital organs

    • Ed says:

      talk is cheap. when I see the stats of a 10% kill rate I’ll get excited.

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        it’s almost summer. Israel is supposed to be hit by some massive wave of a health crisis “by summer”. I await some exciting stats.

    • Student says:

      Yes, also in Italy they are starting to push on an incredibly dangerous and horrible black fungus of the Delta variant.
      I’m afraid someone might even be read to spread it personally in order to have this side effect also here and have: vaccine, vaccine, vaccine.

      • Someone commented earlier that the fungus condition is very common in hot, humid India. Some people even have a latent case of it. So it is not surprising that it seems to be a side effect of COVID-19.

        • NomadicBeer says:

          “So it is not surprising that it seems to be a side effect of COVID-19.”

          I think more probable scenario is that the fungus is a side effect of vaccination – there are many side effects that suggest the vaccine compromise immunity, at least temporarily.

          • geno mir says:

            Majority (like 90% and more) of ‘black fungus’ cases in India are observed in non-vaccinated people hence vaccine does not play a role in those ones. The issue is what Gail said above plus the treatment of active Covid19 cases. All around the world a part of the treatment is corticosteroids intravenous course and corticosteroids make fungus to grow exponentially. Furthermore patients with complicated covid-19 develop so called supra-infections which are bacterial in nature so antibiotic therapy should be added and the bacteriostatic and bactericide effects of the antibiotics additionally fuel fungus growth. It is very simple and straight medicine 101.

        • Student says:

          Yes Gail, I remember those comments. As you probably already immagine my words were towards the tendency to create panic about this new dangerous variant, as you wisely and cleverly expressed in your article.
          I found that point very interesting and I think that is perfectly in line.

    • MM says:

      I wonder why the pharmacies sell maks instead of ropes to hang yourself?

  49. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The Fed Is Risking a Full-Blown Recession [with its new monetary framework]… monetary policy will remain loose until overheating begins – and cooling things off will require the Fed to increase interest rates much faster and further than it would if it started raising rates sooner…

    “The result will be more volatility in short-term rates, and a greater danger of an economic hard landing.”

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “The ECB Has Far Worse Troubles Than Inflation…

      “The real reason that hawkish noises have subsided is the strength of the euro, which is close to its highest point against the dollar in three years. For an export-led economy this will act as a brake on activity and could threaten to derail any recovery.”

    • Sam says:

      I kinda feel like this is there plan…deflate then reinflate. Rinse wash repeat. This will keep people dependent On the government and maybe kick the can down the road

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        I think it was The Blonde Beast who was making the very good point that the central banks are not in control.

        Of course there is a spectrum of potency with the Fed at the top of the pile but they are basically reactive entities, doing their best to encourage or moderate growth as appropriate and to offset or prevent shocks wherever possible.

        Their bag of tricks looks to me to be almost depleted with only overt MMT remaining. At some point, when the rebound inevitably fizzles into stagnation, their ability to respond effectively may be overwhelmed.

        • Xabier says:

          Then again, delusion is a strong force at governmental level: think of Adolf pushing his little flags around on the maps in the bunker.

          I’m inclined to think they, the little self-worshipping demi-gods – always have the power………to make things worse.

          That can always be relied upon.

    • We will see if the Fed ever raises interest rates.

      • MM says:

        The FED is an actor.
        Let me call it the snake in front of the rabbit.
        Recently I tried to help with the point that any “accounting unit” will work if deemed necessary.
        I have some skills that will be needed.
        I know people that have other skills.
        A “Dollar” does not mean anything to us.

        I am sorry to be a bit radical here but “predicting” something here at OFW is just helpmg their perdictive engine, even if you think OFW is a fringe site.
        NOT AT ALL TRUE.
        they look at the fringes because there they get the best info.

        Unfortunately this post if taken serious might considerably diiminish the quality of OFW.

        The only thing applicable is “i am currently..” (if you feel the need to tell “us”)
        All aspirations for “the future” only add to their plans!

        “Now” does noit apply for planning…

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