How Energy Transition Models Go Wrong

I have written many posts relating to the fact that we live in a finite world. At some point, our ability to extract resources becomes constrained. At the same time, population keeps increasing. The usual outcome when population is too high for resources is “overshoot and collapse.” But this is not a topic that the politicians or central bankers or oligarchs who attend the World Economic Forum dare to talk about.

Instead, world leaders find a different problem, namely climate change, to emphasize above other problems. Conveniently, climate change seems to have some of the same solutions as “running out of fossil fuels.” So, a person might think that an energy transition designed to try to fix climate change would work equally well to try to fix running out of fossil fuels. Unfortunately, this isn’t really the way it works.

In this post, I will lay out some of the issues involved.

[1] There are many different constraints that new energy sources need to conform to.

These are a few of the constraints I see:

  • Should be inexpensive to produce
  • Should work with the current portfolio of existing devices
  • Should be available in the quantities required, in the timeframe needed
  • Should not pollute the environment, either when created or at the end of their lifetimes
  • Should not add CO2 to the atmosphere
  • Should not distort ecosystems
  • Should be easily stored, or should be easily ramped up and down to precisely match energy timing needs
  • Cannot overuse fresh water or scarce minerals
  • Cannot require a new infrastructure of its own, unless the huge cost in terms of delayed timing and greater materials use is considered.

If an energy type is simply a small add-on to the existing system, perhaps a little deviation from the above list can be tolerated, but if there is any intent of scaling up the new energy type, all of these requirements must be met.

It is really the overall cost of the system that is important. Historically, the use of coal has helped keep the overall cost of the system down. Substitutes need to be developed considering the overall needs and cost of the system.

The reason why the overall cost of the system is important is because countries with high-cost energy systems will have a difficult time competing in a world market since energy costs are an important part of the cost of producing goods and services. For example, the cost of operating a cruise ship depends, to a significant extent, on the cost of the fuel it uses.

In theory, energy types that work with different devices (say, electric cars and trucks instead of those operated by internal combustion engines) can be used, but a long delay can be expected before a material shift in overall energy usage occurs. Furthermore, a huge ramp up in the total use of materials for production may be required. The system cannot work if the total cost is too high, or if the materials are not really available, or if the timing is too slow.

[2] The major thing that makes an economy grow is an ever increasing supply of inexpensive-to-produce energy products.

Food is an energy product. Let’s think of what happens when agriculture is mechanized, typically using devices that are made and operated using coal and oil. The cost of producing food drops substantially. Instead of spending, for example, 50% of a person’s wages on food, the percentage can gradually drop down to 20% of wages, and then to 10% of wages for food, and eventually even, say, to 2% of wages for food.

As spending on food falls, opportunity for other spending arises, even with wages remaining relatively level. With lower food expenditures, a person can spend more on books (made with energy products), or personal transportation (such as a vehicle), or entertainment (also made possible by energy products). Strangely enough, in order for an economy to grow, essential items need to become an ever decreasing share of everyone’s budget, so that citizens have sufficient left-over income available for more optional items.

It is the use of tools, made and operated with inexpensive energy products of the right types, that leverages human labor so that workers can produce more food in a given period of time. This same approach also makes many other goods and services available.

In general, the less expensive an energy product is, the more helpful it will be to an economy. A country operating with an inexpensive mix of energy products will tend to be more competitive in the world market than one with a high-cost mix of energy products. Oil tends to be expensive; coal tends to be inexpensive. This is a major reason why, in recent years, countries using a lot of coal in their energy mix (such as China and India) have been able to grow their economies much more rapidly than those countries relying heavily on oil in their energy mixes.

[3] If energy products are becoming more expensive to produce, or their production is not growing very rapidly, there are temporary workarounds that can hide this problem for quite a number of years.

Back in the 1950s and 1960s, world coal and oil consumption were growing rapidly. Natural gas, hydroelectric and (a little) nuclear were added, as well. Cost of production remained low. For example, the price of oil, converted to today’s dollar value, was less than $20 per barrel.

Once the idyllic 1950s and 1960s passed, it was necessary to hide the problems associated with the rising cost of production using several approaches:

  • Increasing use of debt – really a promise of future goods and services made with energy
  • Lower interest rates – permits increasing debt to be less of a financial burden
  • Increasing use of technology – to improve efficiency in energy usage
  • Growing use of globalization – to make use of other countries’ cheaper energy mix and lower cost of labor

After 50+ years, we seem to be reaching limits with respect to all of these techniques:

  • Debt levels are excessive
  • Interest rates are very low, even below zero
  • Increasing use of technology as well as globalization have led to greater and greater wage disparity; many low level jobs have been eliminated completely
  • Globalization has reached its limits; China has reached a situation in which its coal supply is no longer growing

[4] The issue that most people fail to grasp is the fact that with depletion, the cost of producing energy products tends to rise, but the selling prices of these energy products do not rise enough to keep up with the rising cost of depletion.

As a result, production of energy products tends to fall because production becomes unprofitable.

As we get further and further away from the ideal situation (oil less than $20 per barrel and rising in quantity each year), an increasing number of problems crop up:

  • Both oil/gas companies and coal companies become less profitable.
  • With lower energy company profits, governments can collect less taxes from these companies.
  • As old wells and mines deplete, the cost of reinvestment becomes more of a burden. Eventually, new investment is cut back to the point that production begins to fall.
  • With less growth in energy consumption, productivity growth tends to lag. This happens because energy is required to mechanize or computerize processes.
  • Wage disparity tends to grow; workers become increasingly unhappy with their governments.

[5] Authorities with an incorrect understanding of why and how energy supplies fall have assumed that far more fossil fuels would be available than is actually the case. They have also assumed that relatively high prices for alternatives would be acceptable.

In 2012, Jorgen Randers prepared a forecast for the next 40 years for The Club of Rome, in the form of a book, 2052, with associated data. Looking at the data, we see that Randers forecast that world coal consumption would grow by 28% between 2010 and 2020. In fact, world coal consumption grew by 0% in that period. (This latter forecast is based on BP coal consumption estimates for 2010 and 2019 from BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2020, adjusted for the 2019 to 2020 period change using IEA’s estimate from its Global Energy Review 2021.)

It is very easy to assume that high estimates of coal resources in the ground will lead to high quantities of actual coal extracted and burned. The world’s experience between 2010 and 2020 shows that it doesn’t necessarily work out that way in practice. In order for coal consumption to grow, the delivered price of coal needs to stay low enough for customers to be able to afford its use in the end products it provides. Much of the supposed coal that is available is far from population centers. Some of it is even under the North Sea. The extraction and delivery costs become far too high, but this is not taken into account in resource estimates.

Forecasts of future natural gas availability suffer from the same tendency towards over-estimation. Randers estimated that world gas consumption would grow by 40% between 2010 and 2020, when the actual increase was 22%. Other authorities make similar overestimates of future fuel use, assuming that “of course,” prices will stay high enough to enable extraction. Most energy consumption is well-buried in goods and services we buy, such as the cost of a vehicle or the cost of heating a home. If we cannot afford the vehicle, we don’t buy it; if the cost of heating a family’s home rises too high, thrifty families will turn down the thermostat.

Oil prices, even with the recent run-up in prices, are under $75 per barrel. I have estimated that for profitable oil production (including adequate funds for high-cost reinvestment and sufficient taxes for governments), oil prices need to be over $120 per barrel. It is the lack of profitability that has caused the recent drop in production. These profitability problems can be expected to lead to more production declines in the future.

With this low-price problem, fossil fuel estimates used in climate model scenarios are almost certainly overstated. This bias would be expected to lead to overstated estimates of future climate change.

The misbelief that energy prices will always rise to cover higher costs of production also leads to the belief that relatively high-cost alternatives to fossil fuels would be acceptable.

[6] Our need for additional energy supplies of the right kinds is extremely high right now. We cannot wait for a long transition. Even 30 years is too long.

We saw in section [3] that the workarounds for a lack of growing energy supply, such as higher debt and lower interest rates, are reaching limits. Furthermore, prices have been unacceptably low for oil producers for several years. Not too surprisingly, oil production has started to decline:

Figure 1 – World production of crude oil and condensate, based on data of the US Energy Information Administration

What is really needed is sufficient energy of the right types for the world’s growing population. Thus, it is important to look at energy consumption on a per capita basis. Figure 2 shows energy production per capita for three groupings:

  • Tier 1: Oil and Coal
  • Tier 2: Natural Gas, Nuclear, and Hydroelectric
  • Tier 3: Other Renewables, including Intermittent Wind and Solar
Figure 2 World per capita energy consumption by Tier. Amounts through 2019 based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2020. Changes for 2020 based on estimates provided by IEA Global Energy Review 2021.

Figure 2 shows that the biggest drop is in Tier 1: Coal and Oil. In many ways, coal and oil are foundational types of energy for the economy because they are relatively easy to transport and store. Oil is important because it is used in operating agricultural machinery, road repair machinery, and vehicles of all types, including ships and airplanes. Coal is important partly because of its low cost, helping paychecks to stretch further for finished goods and services. Coal is used in many ways, including electricity production and making steel and concrete. We use coal and oil to keep electricity transmission lines repaired.

Figure 2 shows that Tier 2 energy consumption per capita was growing rapidly in the 1965 to 1990 period, but its growth has slowed in recent years.

The Green Energy sources in Tier 3 have been growing rapidly from a low base, but their output is still tiny compared to the overall output that would be required if they were to substitute for energy from both Tier 1 and Tier 2 sources. They clearly cannot by themselves power today’s economy.

It is very difficult to imagine any of the Tier 2 and Tier 3 energy sources being able to grow without substantial assistance from coal and oil. All of today’s Tier 2 and Tier 3 energy sources depend on coal and oil at many points in the chain of their production, distribution, operation, and eventual recycling. If we ever get to Tier 4 energy sources (such as fusion or space solar), I would expect that they too will need oil and/or coal in their production, transport and distribution, unless there is an incredibly long transition, and a huge change in energy infrastructure.

[7] It is easy for energy researchers to set their sights too low.

[a] We need to be looking at the extremely low energy cost structure of the 1950s and 1960s as a model, not some far higher cost structure.

We have been hiding the world’s energy problems for years behind rising debt and falling interest rates. With very high debt levels and very low interest rates, it is becoming less feasible to stimulate the economy using these approaches. We really need very inexpensive energy products. These energy products need to provide a full range of services required by the economy, not simply intermittent electricity.

Back in the 1950s and 1960s, the ratio of Energy Earned to Energy Investment was likely in the 50:1 range for many energy products. Energy products were very profitable; they could be highly taxed. The alternative energy products we develop today need to have similar characteristics if they truly are to play an important role in the economy.

[b] A recent study says that greenhouse gas emissions related to the food system account for one-third of the anthropogenic global warming gas total. A way to grow sufficient food is clearly needed.

We clearly cannot grow food using intermittent electricity. Farming is not an easily electrified endeavor. If we do not have an alternative, the coal and oil that we are using now in agriculture really needs to continue, even if it requires subsidies.

[c] Hydroelectric electricity looks like a good energy source, but in practice it has many deficiencies.

Some of the hydroelectric dams now in place are over 100 years old. This is nearing the lifetime of the concrete in the dams. Considerable maintenance and repair (indirectly using coal and oil) are likely to be needed if these dams are to continue to be used.

The water available to provide hydroelectric power tends to vary greatly over time. Figure 3 shows California’s hydro electricity generation by month.

Figure 3. California hydroelectric energy production by month, based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.

Thus, as a practical matter, hydroelectric energy needs to be balanced with fossil fuels to provide energy which can be used to power a factory or heat a home in winter. Battery storage would never be sufficient. There are too many gaps, lasting months at a time.

If hydroelectric energy is used in a tropical area with dry and wet seasons, the result would be even more extreme. A poor country with a new hydroelectric power plant may find the output of the plant difficult to use. The electricity can only be used for very optional activities, such as bitcoin mining, or charging up small batteries for lights and phones.

Any new hydroelectric dam runs the risk of taking away the water someone else was depending upon for irrigation or for their own electricity generation. A war could result.

[d] Current approaches for preventing deforestation mostly seem to be shifting deforestation from high income countries to low income countries. In total, deforestation is getting worse rather than better.

Figure 4. Forest area percentage of land area, by income group, based on data of the World Bank.

Figure 4 shows that deforestation is getting rapidly worse in Low Income countries with today’s policies. There is also a less pronounced trend toward deforestation in Middle Income countries. It is only in High Income countries that land areas are becoming more forested. In total (not shown), the forested area for the world as a whole falls, year after year.

Also, even when replanting is done, the new forests do not have the same characteristics as those made by natural ecosystems. They cannot house as many different species as natural ecosystems. They are likely to be less resistant to problems like insect infestations and forest fires. They are not true substitutes for the forest ecosystems that nature creates.

[e] The way intermittent wind and solar have been added to the electric grid vastly overpays these providers, relative to the value they add to the system. Furthermore, the subsidies for intermittent renewables tend to drive out more stable producers, degrading the overall condition of the grid.

If wind and solar are to be used, payments for the electricity they provide need to be scaled back to reflect the true value that they add to the overall system. In general, this corresponds to the savings in fossil fuel purchases that electricity providers need to make. This will be a small amount, perhaps 2 cents per kilowatt hour. Even this small amount, in theory, might be reduced to reflect the greater electricity transmission costs associated with these intermittent sources.

We note that China is making a major step in the direction of reducing subsidies for wind and solar. It has already dramatically cut its subsidies for wind energy; new subsidy cuts for solar energy will become effective August 1, 2021.

A major concern is the distorting impact that current pricing approaches for wind and solar have on the overall electrical system. Often, these approaches produce very low, or negative, wholesale prices for other providers. Nuclear providers are especially harmed by such practices. Nuclear is, of course, a low CO2 electricity provider.

It seems to me that in each part of the world, some utility-type provider needs to be analyzing what the overall funding of the electrical system needs to be. Bills to individuals and businesses need to reflect these actual expected costs. This approach might avoid the artificially low rates that the current pricing system often generates. If adequate funding can be achieved, perhaps some of the corner cutting that leads to electrical outages, such as recently encountered in California and Texas, might be avoided.

[8] When I look at the requirements for a successful energy transition and the obstacles we are up against, it is hard for me to see that any of the current approaches can be successful.

Unfortunately, it is hard for me to see how intermittent electricity can save the world economy, or even make a dent in our problems. We have searched for a very long time, but haven’t yet found solutions truly worth ramping up. Perhaps a new “Tier 4 approach” might be helpful, but such solutions seem likely to come too late.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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3,781 Responses to How Energy Transition Models Go Wrong

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  3. Duncan Idaho says:

    99.2 Percent of All U.S. Covid Deaths Are Unvaccinated, New Analysis Shows
    They say:
    “If you’re pushing anti-vax bullshit, you’re getting people killed”
    I say:
    Let the unvaccinated continue their delusion– gets rid of our genetically inferior population.
    Good for homo sapiens as a species.
    https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/covid-deaths-unvaccinated-1189072/

    • Fast Eddy says:

      6000 dead 30,000+ ruined… because they injected the ‘vaccine’…

      And this is just the short term impacts in the US alone….

      Hahahaha…

      And children are dying now hahaha… this is fantastic… a good CovIDIOT is an Injected CovIDIOT

      Die mutherfukkkkers Die

      • Rodster says:

        Oh and you forgot one small detail. Those 30,000+ who were injured, can’t sue the drug makers who make these toxic cocktails posing as vaccines. AND to make matters worse all hospital bills from any injuries are on the Covidiots because they have to pay those bills.

        That’s like the drug companies generating customers for hospitals. At $19.50 per dose and 500 million doses, this is a 9.7 billion dollar racket. Did I mention that Tony Fauci who some claim has NEVER practiced a day of medicine in his life holds patent rights to some of these vaccines?

    • Tim Groves says:

      Time for a bit of Nobel Prize-winning literature!

      There’s a whole lot of people suffering tonight
      From the disease of conceit
      Whole lot of people struggling tonight
      From the disease of conceit
      Comes right down the highway
      Straight down the line
      Rips into your senses
      Through your body and your mind
      Nothing about it that’s sweet
      The disease of conceit

      There’s a whole lot of hearts breaking tonight
      From the disease of conceit
      Whole lot of hearts shaking tonight
      From the disease of conceit
      Steps into your room
      Eats your soul
      Over your senses
      You have no control
      Ain’t nothing too discreet
      About the disease of conceit

      There’s a whole lot of people dying tonight
      From the disease of conceit
      Whole lot of people crying tonight
      From the disease of conceit
      Comes right out of nowhere
      And you’re down for the count
      From the outside world
      The pressure will mount
      Turn you into a piece of meat
      The disease of conceit

      Conceit is a disease
      That the doctors got no cure
      They’ve done a lot of research on it
      But what it is, they’re still not sure

      There’s a whole lot of people in trouble tonight
      From the disease of conceit
      Whole lot of people seeing double tonight
      From the disease of conceit
      Give ya delusions of grandeur
      And a evil eye
      Give you the idea that
      You’re too good to die
      Then they bury you from your head to your feet
      From the disease of conceit

      • Xabier says:

        When Lord Byron died, his jilted lover Claire Clairmont claimed that the autopsy revealed his fatal disease to have been a large ‘I’ covering his heart….

  4. Answering Dennis L’s argument about the 8 million top 0.1% of intelligence

    Sometimes, intelligence cancels that out.

    The Japanese movie G.I. Samurai deals with the problem . (It has been made a few times)

    Long story short, a squad of elite Japanese soldiers are dropped into 16th Century feudal Japan. However, instead of making the newer stuff there and expanding outside of aide, the soldiers begin to fight among themselves, taking sides for various warlords, until all of them perish without accomplishing anything.

    During the Great War, Chaim Weizmann invented gunpowder for the British when they were running out of ammo. For that he became the first President of Israel.

    However, if we apply utilitarian methods, it would have been better if he failed to make it, let Germany win the Great War, and 6 million more Jews would have lived. Weizmann indirectly led to the murder of 6 million Jews, who might have yielded at least 6,000 people of renown, using Dennis L’s formula..

    There is the story of Grigory Perelman. The Chinese mathematician Yau Shingtong wanted to get rid of Perelman, and he and his fellow Chinese mathematicians attacked Perelman with venom. Perelman, sick of dealing with Yau and his Chinese friends, withdrew from the world and Yau and his Chinese gang are still running around .

    If the 8 million geniuses can unite, great. But, often they will use their intelligence to fight against others in their ranks than to try to reach the goal intended.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      The law of unintended consequences.

      Perhaps humans have just evolved such that the most intelligent perform functions within other groups, rather than form their own group. It is an interesting question whether that pattern could be subverted – but it is probably too late now to give it a try.

  5. Duncan Idaho says:

    99% of Americans Dying of Covid-19 Were Not Fully Vaccinated
    (Just getting rid of our genetically challenged population–Darwin at work)
    Reality over ideology
    https://gizmodo.com/99-of-americans-dying-of-covid-19-were-not-fully-vacci-1847167357

    • Very Far Frank says:

      ~~~> Reads Gizmodo to get his sense of what ‘reality’ is.

      ~~~> Takes pleasure in death as long as it supports his biases.

      Same old Dunc, never change.

    • Tim Groves says:

      Just over two thirds of Americans officially dying of Covid-19 died in 2020, when vaccines were essentially unavailable.

      The Jabs only got underway in December and that was followed by the month with the highest death toll by far—January 2021 with 104,000 Covid-19 deaths, many of which may have been mislabeled vaccine deaths.

      https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

      A famous example is Larry King, who was in hospital with serious Covid-19 symptoms but was recovering. Then, according to his son on Twitter, before leaving the hospital he received the Jab. And in short order, that was the end of Larry.

      As one Twitterati put it:

      John Ziegler
      @Zigmanfreud
      I am pro-vaccine, but it appears Larry King may have died after recovering from COVID & THEN getting the vaccine. Hank Aaron died just after getting the vaccine. If we find out Tommy Lasorda got the vaccine, there would be a media panic about vaccines…

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Is Larry King dead? Well that’s some good news… ship him to the glue factory

      • TY says:

        Exactly, thanks Tim for taking the effort to point out the flaw in Duncan’s post. Clearly the media has stepped up its effort of tarring those in the control group.

        For what its worth: I declined my invitation for the injection. Pressure at work is big, initially i was trying to stay under the radar, but i suck at lying, I ended up telling my boss i wasn’t getting the jab. So, the dice is cast, lets see what the remainder of the year brings.

        • Xabier says:

          Good luck, TY.

          Governments aren’t mandating the injections, but relying on employers, professional associations, and peer pressure to do the job for them.

          I see that a Canadian surgeon has been suspended for – how dare he?! – advocating informed consent in vaccinations.

          It’s astonishing how low the ethical bar has fallen, in so short a time.

            • Came across this guy recently—Stew Peters. He’s kind of shouty, but he’s following the pilot story.

              https://www.redvoicemedia.com/2021/06/internal-airline-documents-illustrate-risk-of-air-travel-with-vaccinated-pilots/

              On the one hand, airlines are incentivizing pilot “vaxxes” and will eventually make it mandatory … yet at the same time, they are warning the “vaxxed” public that they should reconsider flying due to risk of clotting.

            • The report is somewhat over the top. Aren’t there usually a pilot and co-pilot? The co-pilot could take over in case the pilot is unable to continue at the controls. On long flights, it may be that one has to sleep part of the time. That might be a problem. But it seems like there would be a workaround that the sleeping pilot could come take over. (Actually, I don’t know how this works, exactly.) It seems like after one or two accidents, the point would be made that some work around is necessary.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Cathay Pacific sent me a survey the other day asking about my concern with respect to flying and what it would take to get me on a plane again….

              In a nutshell I said f789 you if you want me to wear a mask or get a vaccine … f789 you if you expect me to quarantine a single minute either way….

              I also told them to remember one of my final flights with them to NZ from HK… the time they told me I had 3 checked bags… so I hauled a 3rd bulky item to the airport in the sweltering heat… was told sorry only 2… and I said Marco Polo told me 3…. otherwise I would not have brought the 3rd (DUH)….

              The cost to add the 3rd was more than it was worth so I chucked it on the floor and said you deal with it…. after a heated argument (they wanted me to deal with it) — I think stepped back and called Marco Polo and asked again — what is my allowance… was told 3…. asked the manager to speak to Marco Polo… he still insisted they had it wrong…. so I said well that’s not my f789ing fault IS IT!!!

              This was when CX was already losing quite a bit of dosh due to the protests and I told him (after he STILL refused to load the bag at no charge)… that I hope this airline crashes into bankruptcy…. not only that I will unleash covid shortly and actively participate in crashing your business….

              And he thought that was an idle threat…. some might say I went a bit too far….

              I suspect the number crunchers will not be counting on me for revenue any time soon.

      • Student says:

        Yes, I’ve heard about this. And of course it could be probable. Unfortunately nobody published, at least, an official twitter link of Larry King’s son declaration about this.
        I think it could be useful.

  6. a kullervo says:

    Georgia Guidestones, here we go!

    Mass inoculation of the world’s population with a sterilizing agent (plus a bonus of sundry harming side-effects) seems like a rational way for extending homo sapiens sapiens shelf life, while concurrently avoiding most of the costs of a full-blown, global war (small-scale local wars will still be unavoidable, though.)

    All else is blowin’ in the wind.

  7. MG says:

    A tornado in Central Europe destroyed a half of the village Hrusky in Czech Republic, close to the border with Slovakia today:

    https://twitter.com/CT24zive/status/1408139688897040386

    https://www.e15.cz/domaci/jih-moravy-zdevastovalo-tornado-zvazuje-se-nasazeni-armady-desitky-zranenych-1381685

    The heat waves here in Slovakia forced me to buy a dehumidifier: it is a better option for surviving the heat waves than an air conditioning, especially when you live with an elderly person, who wears a sweater when the room temperature is 25 degrees Celzius.

    It is the excessive humidity and the collapse of the body temperature control system which is the core of our problem with the heat waves, not the heat itself. The humans need the heat, but not the excessive humidity…

    • MG says:

      One more video from the Czech Republic today. The people seeing tornado for the first time in their lives:

    • MG says:

      Some 5 cm ice balls falling today in the Czech Republic, too:

      • Quite a lot of the US lives with tornados and even occasional ice balls. You had it good before. Now you are finding out what some of the rest of the world lives with. It is unfortunate, but that may be the way it is.

        • MG says:

          I think such natural disasters are a good way to control the population, some kind of the demonstration of the natural forces that the humans can not influence.

  8. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The Delusion of Infinite Economic Growth

    “Even “sustainable” technologies such as electric vehicles and wind turbines face unbreachable physical limits and exact grave environmental costs.”

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-delusion-of-infinite-economic-growth1/

    • Sam says:

      Uh oh….the left is starting to get it…maybe they have known for some time

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        “This is an opinion and analysis article; the views expressed by the author or authors are not necessarily those of Scientific American.” Oh, but it’s just opinion, “they will think of something”.

    • If the amount of resource use is level, rather than rising, maybe that is OK?
      It is in the eyes of the author, but I wouldn’t agree. We are already overusing renewable resources. Most resources don’t renew in any reasonable length of time, likely only as bedrock erodes. Without renewal, any use of resources eventually becomes a problem. We are supposed to be sharing renewable resources with other plants and animals, We are taking vastly more than our share. Non-renewable resources (like copper ore and like fossil fuels) are a huge problem because they deplete. They become more and more difficult (expensive) to extract. This is like growing inefficiency of the system. If eventually brings it down.

  9. houtskool says:

    “No one can say for certain whether we have seen the all-time high in world production. But I am personally on “peak watch” and have been since the middle of 2019. The implications for the world will be even greater than those of the pandemic if it turns out we are now past the peak in world oil production.”

    https://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2021/06/shale-oil-and-gas-fraud-sign-of-peak-in.html

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “In fact, the latest monthly production figures available from the U.S. Energy Information Administration show oil production in February still more than 10 million barrels below its November 2018 peak.” Can’t say for certain, but down 10 million per day is a massive hurdle to regain. Wasn’t Kurt Cobb around in The Oil Drum days?

      • Kurt Cobb was around in Oil Drum days, but he wasn’t on the Oil Drum staff. I think of him being more involved with the US Association for the Study of Peak Oil. ASPO would have conferences each year and invite Oil Drum writers to give talks. In fact, ASPO would make their conferences free to Oil Drum staff.

      • Sam says:

        Down 10 million—-cant that be attributed to weak demand and weak prices? But I am not sure I guess they might have to operate at the same speed no matter what

        • February 2021 was unusually low, because of all of the weather-related problems Texas was having with it production during that month. Other months prior to February 2021 were also down, but not nearly as much. Production was down about 7 million barrels a day, before the cold weather (and related problems) took it down an extra three million barrels per day in February.

          We do have more information about Texas’ production. It seems to be back up since then. So the last 3 million of the lost 10 million will likely back when an international report is available for March 2021.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      so the battery must be inside the surfboard. I saw one place saying it costs $12,000 so that means a lot of FF went into its construction. I’m surprised it wasn’t made with a green color.

  10. Terry Montana says:

    BBC, as usual, is helping its masters keep the plebs fat and sick. What a nice mix: heart disease, hypertension, diabetes, and cancer with a vaccine cocktail.

    Comments about professional victims:

    “Sarah now says it should be against the law to make comments about body shape and size.”

    “Jed says that he recently signed a petition to try to prevent another takeaway from opening.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-57419041

    • Blaise says:

      The ol’ propaganda organ did a nice job here of promoting a new weight-loss drug and various surgeries for the medical complex. I read it pretty fast, but I do not believe “carbs” was mentioned once; however, “calories,” the basis of all failed diets, showed up

    • I don’t think the the UK is as bad as the US, but here restaurants serve very oversized portions. There are huge servings of meats, of processed grains, and of desserts. There are opportunities to eat, many times a day.

      It is no wonder that many people are fat. If people ate like people do today, and excertcised as little as people today, the combination invariably leads to a problem with obesity.

  11. Seneca's cliff says:

    Does anyone know the potential insurance ramifications of yesterdays tragic condo tower collapse in south florida. My engineering guess is that this tower collapsed due to corrosion in the rebar reinforcing the concrete. This is accelerated in florida due to the tendency by some contractors to use seawater in their concrete. But it is a problem with all modern concrete and these concrete platform style towers are particularly susceptible. The insurance issue is not so much for the tower that collapsed, but what happens if dozens (or hundreds) of other buildings are found to have the same problem and are declared uninhabitable. Are thousands ( or hundreds of thousands) of people out of luck. This was a fancy building with 2 bedroom condos that sold for $600,000-$700.000.

    • James Speaks says:

      We won’t know until the collapse sequence is determined. Most structural collapse are shear failures that become “pancake style” where the initial floor falling onto the next lower on overloads its shear capacity and so on until ground. This one looks like it initiated in a lower floor. There was repair work ongoing. I wonder if that had anything to do with overstressing a critical component.

      • I am sure that there will be insurance involved, perhaps involving more than one insurance company. I haven’t read anything about that. There likely will be “reinsurance” as well, in which the insurance company (or companies) providing the insurance attempt to share the risk of a massive claim with other insurers. It is possible that policy limits are inadequate, because no one considered the possibility of this kind of collapse occurring.

        • James Speaks says:

          A recent news item stated the building had been experiencing settlement up to 2mm per year. Differential settlement was also present. The structural engineer who determined that also said he didn’t think much of it at the time. I bet his insurance goes up. Engineers have a duty to report critical issues even if it’s not their project.

          The building was right on the coast. I wonder how extensive and closely spaced the soil borings were. Soil borings are absolutely necessary on coastal projects; just because there is sand now doesn’t mean there is sand all the way to bedrock. Often the sand layers are interspersed with organic material layers, like what would happen if the Everglades were to be inundated. Sand would be carried over the organic layers and eventually, when the ocean recedes b/c ice age or something, there will be a nice sandy beach with unstable organic material several meters down.

          If the organic material was evenly dispersed over the entire footprint of the structure, it is possible for it to settle evenly, and this scenario does not pose a threat. However, if the organic layer was thick over part of the footprint and thin or nonexistent over the remainder, then differential settlement would eventually cause an overload on connecting beams. Concrete lacks the ductility to undergo this type of deformation without breaking. With broken beams on lower levels, suddenly the moment resisting capability of columns decreases and as soon as one column buckles, the structure fails.

          This is my best guess after studying the issue for five minutes.

          I would bet that all buildings with similar characteristics, i.e. built in the 60’s with spotty soil borings will be subject to intense review. Rather than raise rates, it would be better to simply cancel the policies.

  12. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    Man, the Amazon Rainforest is being hit on all sides…
    BBC
    Brazil’s environment minister quits amid illegal logging investigation
    Wed, June 23, 2021, 7:05 PM
    An aerial view of a deforested plot of the Amazon. File photo
    Scientists say the Amazon has suffered losses at an accelerated rate since President Jair Bolsonaro took office
    Brazil’s environment minister has quit ahead of a criminal investigation into claims he obstructed a police inquiry into illegal logging in the Amazon.

    Ricardo Salles is accused of vouching for the legal origin of a vast haul of timber worth approximately $25m (£18m).

    This is despite police evidence that it had been illegally logged.

    Mr Salles is also facing a separate investigation into allegations that he was involved in the export of illegal timber to the US and Europe.

    In another research article, seems the Amazon Rainforest is no longer a carbon sink, bit because of all this BAU progress is an emitter of CO2!
    Years ago remember one of these Ministers in Brazil seriously stated that the rainforest has to start paying for itself! Can’t let that freeloader bunch of trees and critters live scot-free, can we now?

  13. Dennis L. says:

    Tomorrow’s solutions to battery issues?

    https://plasmakinetics.com/

    Solid state storage of hydrogen, convert to electricity with fuel cell, generate hydrogen from by products if need be, solar(you mean we could store solar into the winter?) for electrolysis, whatever.

    We will solve tomorrow’s problems with tomorrow’s solutions. The most challenging issue is there are 80m competitors with IQ’s in the 99% tile, pretty stiff competition and there is the old lobster problem – see Jordan Peterson on that one.

    Interesting challenges, we will meet them and go forward.

    Dennis L.

    • “The chief cause of problems is solutions.” -Eric Sevareid

      • Xabier says:

        There’s a good new post on Ugo Bardi’s blog: do the Great Re-setters really understand that their revolution might in fact hasten the end?

        • Do you have a link? I didn’t notice it on his Seneca Effect blog.

          • Xabier says:

            Sorry, Gail, no saved link as usual with me, but it’s there on his new blog, under a Roman name.

            A good article, perhaps, to forward to people in order to enlighten them, as it suggests how the lock-downs and destruction of SME’s, suppression of mass consumption, etc, are in fact a policy designed to keep the plates spinning as resources fail, and nothing at all to do with fighting Covid.

            But it can’t be dismissed out of hand as a mere ‘CT’, as the author doesn’t once mention the Great Re-set, digitisation, depopulation, Bill Gates, or call the pandemic a fake.

            So it might therefore get through to people with closed minds, being purely economic and resource-based in its argument, with none of those trigger words.

            Of course, they would be shocked enough by the failure of shale, etc, to learn of the real energy situation, but little by little people can be led to the truth.

            • Great Re-set, digitisation, depopulation, Bill Gates, or call the pandemic a fake.

              I’d like to know how those disparate ‘items’ get on the same list.

              Just curious, that’s all

            • Thierry says:

              His blog is now called “the Seneca effect”. The last article is written by “Rutilius Namatianus”.
              The conclusion is that one “It could be that, in their attempt to push all the resource decline onto the weaker population, the powerful players have also even more rapidly accelerated the collapse of the only system that allows them to convert those resources into ongoing power. ”
              I don’t see any reference to Gates or depopulation however.

            • Xabier says:

              You are not curious, Norman: you are a dolt who has closed his mind.

              It’s tragic – done anything to save your great- grandchildren from these monsters yet?

              By the way, the BBC defines the Great Re-set as ‘ the plan for global recovery’ – so, you see, that it exists is confirmed even by them.

            • hmmmmm

              so on the basis of BBC definition, the great reset is how I originally defined it

              wish science
              wish politics
              wish economics

              And your reply didn’t answer my question—or to take just one point–what does ‘digitisation’ mean in that context?

              not that I expected it to

              Anger at a question and absence of logical expianation is not an answer.

              A ‘plan for global recovery’ will remain just that.

              We do not possess sufficient cheap energy to power global recovery.

            • Xabier says:

              Thanks, Thierry: that was my point, it’s a good article to share just because it doesn’t mention them.

              Ugo is publishing some excellent stuff these days.

    • JesseJames says:

      “Nano-photonic film recharges through 150 cycles and is fully recyclable.“
      Been around for decades, but no product. The full cost obviously not calculated. Soundss like another Theranos

  14. Tim Groves says:

    It begins!

    This was on NHK News and in the Asahi Shimbun this morning.

    + + + +
    (Translation of the NHK report)
    A large cluster of 89 people, including psychiatric patients and nurses, were infected with the novel coronavirus at a hospital in Minoh City, Osaka, and 11 of the patients died.

    According to the Tamenaga Onsen Hospital in Minoh City, Osaka, on the 7th of May, four patients admitted to the psychiatric ward and one nurse were confirmed to have been infected with the novel coronavirus.

    Since then, there has been a series of confirmed infections, and in the month up to the 7th of June, a total of 89 people, including 70 hospitalized patients and 19 nurses and other staff, were infected, resulting in a large-scale cluster, of which 11 hospitalized patients died.

    The hospital was unable to provide treatment for the cases, and through the public health center, requested that the patients be transferred to a hospital that could provide specialized treatment, but at the time, hospital beds were tight in Osaka Prefecture, and it took time to coordinate the transfer.

    The hospital had been using karaoke as an occupational therapy for psychiatric patients, but refrained from using it after the first infection was confirmed.

    The Tamenaga Onsen Hospital said, “We pray for the repose of the souls of the deceased patients.

    + + + +

    What’s interesting here is, firstly, the death rate for Covid-19 infections worldwide has been calculated at about 0.15%, but that in the case of this hospital, 11 deaths were reported from among 70 infected psychiatric patients (centered on those in their 70s and 80s according to the Asahi), which works out at over 15%, or a hundred times the worldwide rate.

    A second interesting point is that the cluster formed on May 7, growing into Japan’s biggest single cluster as far as I can tell, and precipitating these deaths over the course of the month up until June 7, but I can find no media reports about it prior to June 24, which indicates that the authorities delayed announcing the news for some reason.

    A third interesting point is that vaccinations for frontline workers began on February 17 most hospital staff were jabbed in March and April. Moreover, on April 12, Japan began administering vaccines to senior citizens age 65 and older, beginning with those in care homes and hospitals. So there is a good chance that many of both the staff and the patients at this hospital were fully vaccinated with the Pfizer jab. However, not a word about vaccinations has been mentioned in either the NHK or the Asahi report.

    So I am going out on a limb here and suggesting that this cluster was very probably caused, not by the SARS-cov-2 virus or the karaoke, but by the Pfizer jab, although there is insufficient evidence to come to a firm conclusion.

    https://www3.nhk.or.jp/kansai-news/20210623/2000047513.html

    • VFatalis says:

      Virus + Vax = Devil covid
      Bring the body bags

    • Xabier says:

      Good logic regarding the origins, Tim.

      I feel dreadful for the psychiatric patients, though: let them sing for God’s sake!

      Dance, sing, drink wine, for it’s the edge of the grave we tread……..

  15. Mirror on the wall says:

    The UK fertility rate fell to 1.58 kid per woman in 2020, and to 1.53 for the first quarter of 2021, which would be a record low – according to new ONS stats. 2020 was obviously the year of lockdown, but a fall of 0.05 year on year is in line with recent trends anyway.

    40% of UK couples simply never had sex during lockdown. (40% of Brits are single, and sex was banned between non-cohabiting couples last year – so maybe less than a third of Brits had sex last year.)

    1.53 is a replacement rate of 72.85%, and the number of births would fall by 47% over two generations.

    > The total fertility rate (TFR) for England and Wales decreased from 1.70 children per woman in 2018 to 1.65 children per woman in 2019; this is lower than all previous years except 2000, 2001 and 2002.

    The total fertility rate in 2020 was an estimated 1.58 children per woman and 1.53 in Quarter 1 2021; this is in line with the recent trend of a decreasing total fertility rate each year since 2012 (at 1.93).

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/articles/provisionalbirthsinenglandandwales/2020andquarter1jantomar2021

    > Lockdown in March 2020 led to DROP in fertility rates and did not spawn predicted baby boom

    The March 2020 lockdown led to a drop in fertility rates and not the baby boom previously predicted, it has emerged.

    Fertility rates in England and Wales for December 2020 and January 2021 showed ‘relatively steep decreases’ compared with a year earlier, down by 8.1% and 10.2% respectively, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

    Meanwhile the total fertility rate in England and Wales for this year could end up being the lowest ever recorded, the ONS suggested.

    Based on data for the first three months of the year, the rate for 2021 is estimated to be 1.53 children per woman. This is down from 1.92 children per woman in 2011.

    The total fertility rate is the average number of live children a group of women would bear if they experienced age-specific fertility rates throughout their childbearing life.

    In May, a new survey revealed that four in ten Britons have not been intimate with their loved-one over the entire Covid pandemic – with most blaming working from home.

    Nearly 80 per cent of married people said their partner never initiates sex and the typical adult rates their sex life at an underwhelming 2.9 out of ten – compared with 7.3 at the beginning of their relationship.

    The new data released from the ONS seems to reflect a drop in sex throughout the pandemic.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9720955/Lockdown-March-2020-led-DROP-fertility-rates-did-not-spawn-predicted-baby-boom.html

    • Xabier says:

      Dreadful!

      It should start out at 12 out of 10, and decline to 7-8 out of 10, surely?

      If not……. divorce!

      No wonder some people have such sad eyes above those dismal masks…….

    • I am wondering whether this depressed number of births will last. I have heard about foung people in the US finding this a good time to get pregnant, because of the many benefits Biden is offering families with children. Also, for now, many college loans don’t have to be repaid. The financial situation is thus better than it has been, at least for some young people.

  16. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    Palimiú sits on Brazil’s largest indigenous reserve, which has an area similar to Portugal and 27,000 people. Mining is illegal there, but prospectors have always found ways to do their work. “Garimpeiros are all over the place,” Kopenawa said. He avoids going to areas where they are because of death threats and, after the call, he alerted the authorities, saying something had to be done.

    Illegal gold miners stalk Amazon as authorities look away
    Hugo Bachega – BBC News

    The next day, a team of federal police travelled to Palimiú on a small plane, and were joined by Junior Hekukari, who heads the local indigenous health council. As he was leaving the area, Hekukari spotted some boats drifting with their engines switched off, and he guessed they were trying to avoid being noticed. As the men in the vessels approached, they shot multiple times at the village.

    “The agents screamed ‘Police, police’,” Hekukari told me, “but they didn’t stop. They had no respect”. The officers responded, and there was an intense gun fight. The group left five minutes later and nobody was injured. When Hekukari reported what had happened, Kopenawa was stunned. If even the police were being attacked, he said, none of his people

    intrusions by garimpeiros in indigenous reserves have intensified under far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, who plans to open some of the areas to mining and agriculture. Instituto Socioambiental (ISA), a non-profit group, estimates there are about 20,000 of them in the Yanomami territory alone, and Hekukari told me “they do what they want because they know nothing will happen to them”.

    Alisson Marugal, the federal prosecutor in the state of Roraima, said miners had been encouraged by a surge in gold prices and an order by Funai, the government’s indigenous affairs agency, that limited field work because of the pandemic. “Illegal miners did not self-isolate or do social distancing,” he said. “In fact, they intensified their activities.”

    Suppose GOLD ain’t gonna save these poor tribes from BAU Collapse…and perhaps a warning not to put your so called economic security in the yellow metal…
    This has been going on for a long, long time….surprised there are any native forest people still living in the Rainforest….but from what I gather it’s being destroyed as fast as possible…Mister BAU is a very demanding fella

  17. Minority Of One says:

    For a few weeks/months now, our weekly staff newsletter has been promoting pro-vaxxine propaganda.

    This message was sent to all members of staff at my educational institution today:

    “Understanding views on Covid-19 vaccination

    NHS Grampian [NE Scotland / Aberdeen], in partnership with Aberdeen Health & Social Care Partnership, is currently delivering the COVID vaccine programme.

    To ensure there is a good uptake they want to understand any potential reasons as to why people may not be willing or able to get the vaccine and are particularly keen to hear from 18 – 29 year olds, living in Aberdeen City. This short COVID-19 vaccination survey will be open until Friday 2 July 2021. ”

    I took the survey and all questions relating to lack of enthusiasm relate to difficulty in attending appointment etc. Not a single question about safety concerns etc.

    • Perhaps the authors are only looking for things the can fix. No need to alarm folks.

    • Student says:

      I can understand that it is not much an aglo-saxon way to reply, but I think that the best way to respond to a questionnaire, which don’t include some answer-options, is: no answer.
      Of course, the survey needs to be anonymous.
      With no answer the applicant is obliged to make an effort to understand what was wrong in its survey.

      • Bei Dawei says:

        Or do what Beavis and Butt-head did (when applying to be sperm donors): Fill in the little bubbles with swastikas and skulls and such.

    • Xabier says:

      I’d be tempted to write something along the lines that a free Scots beef pie for each jab would be persuasive with the ‘hesitant’, and then see if that was offered….

      Any ‘educational institution’ that pushes this stuff into the young and healthy has surely forfeited the right to be so regarded.

      Ditto the experts with academic posts and chairs in this and that who are serving as the enthusiastic handmaidens of crime.

      Is here a gallows tree wide enough, one asks?

      • Minority Of One says:

        Hang em high. That would be a sight to see.

        My final comment was not rude but not what they were looking for. I did not leave my email address, although was invited to do so. I am pretty sure that they could trace the response back to me if they really wanted to.

        • Xabier says:

          I look forward to Rebellion.

          Think of Scots courage down the ages: where has all the fire gone?!

          And the Irish, the Welsh?

          Like the Basques now, limply lining up for their jabs when even Charlemagne and the Caliphs of Cordoba, the Roman emperors, couldn’t quite beat us.

          Urbanisation, too much comfort, I suppose. and every idiot wants to live to 80…….

    • “Understanding” is shorthand for “tell us how can we force you towards our totalitarian way of thinking.”

      Been seeing this a lot lately locally, not just with covid but also the race-theory jive.

      • DB says:

        Exactly. And also to identify the wrong thinkers for more “persuasive” attention.

        • denial will force you into a totalitarian regime

          the dictator will tell you lies that you want to believe

          and blame others when it fails to become truth

          and you will continue to believe him

          • Tim Groves says:

            Do you also write lines for fortune cookies?

            If not, you should. Their bakers badly need talent such as yours.

            • I thought my comment described Trump and Trumpism pretty accurately.
              (the fortune cookie thing is a good idea—having forecast his arrival in 2016 back in 2011, pretty good I thought)

              Circumstances were not quite bad enough (and he wasn’t good enough) for him to become one.

              The next one will be.

              no doubt you will correct the points which did not fit that description?

              Or is it to be a blanket dismissal?

  18. Dennis L. says:

    Different topic:

    David Sinclair, Harvard Geneticist, a guest of Lex Fridman and also on Talks at Google.

    Purchased his book, regarding lifespan, might be of interest to some here.

    Personal observation on sleep: I had reason earlier this year to sleep on my couch, windows face east, needed much rest, listened to a great deal of YouTube, now often leave it on during the night, low volume, sleep very deeply, six hours, sun wakes me along with a cardinal I think, refreshed.

    David recommends fasting two days, going to try it, he presents at Google and recorded on Talks at Google.

    Dennis L.

  19. Fast Eddy says:

    Mallozzi took David to the emergency room and told the doctor her son was experiencing an adverse reaction to the COVID vaccine. Although hospital workers took her son’s information, the mother and son were ignored for hours. They finally left because David needed to lie down.

    David’s pain seemed to subside, but later the next day it worsened, so Mallozzi took her son to the emergency room for a second time. “This time I didn’t mention the vaccine,” she said.

    Immediately they took him back, did an EKG and ran scans. The results were consistent with a heart attack. David was suffering from severe heart damage.

    https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/david-mallozzi-myocarditis-pfizer-vaccine-hospital-not-reporting-vaers/

    • Xabier says:

      2021: ‘It’s not the vaccines! Go away!’

      1945: ‘We didn’t know anything about the camps! We just obeyed orders!’

      Both in chorus:

      ‘They would have sacked us/shot us if we’d said anything, anyway’.

    • Strange!

    • Rodster says:

      What a coincedence. This news story is for the Covidiots like Dunce because Dunce is too lazy to find this stuff and believes whatever the government, media and health officials tell him. I guess once a Covidiot always a Covidiot. But here’s the kicker, they still want parents to give their kids the “JAB” because you know…wink…wink. It’s just a rare occurrence and it’s for their own good and what are their chances of having heart problems, right? It’s probably a 99.5% chance they’ll have heart trouble much like the 99.5% chance you’ll actually die from Covid.

      “Some COVID shots may be linked to rare heart problems in teens: CDC”

      https://news.yahoo.com/covid-shots-may-linked-rare-231300876.html

      • I’m amazed that few people seem to be reacting to the THOUSANDS dead from this injection, and hundreds of thousands potentially irreparably damaged (so far). Seems to be.. “oh well, you’ve got to break a few eggs to make an omelette…” sort of thing.

        Full steam ahead!

        • Xabier says:

          I know Lidia.

          I recall a conversation with a surgeon friend about risk and the incapacity of many people to grasp it.

          When he told patients that there was a 1 in 100K risk they thought it was really safe, when in fact that is very high and he had to suggest that they make their wills……

          ‘Safe’ is 1 in 1 million. Just as Dr Yeadon says,if vaccinating a whole population there should be no risk of killing anyone, more or less. and it should be a truly dangerous, untreatable disease. .

          The vaccine risk now stands at between 1 in 40k and 4k, in the UK. And nasty side-effects/injuries obviously even higher.

          Very poor odds, but diluted enough for people not to realise the truth if it is not reported on……

          • TY says:

            Exactly, and those are just the short term odds we know about. I for one am very curious what fall will bring.
            Probably significant ADE, blamed on the control-group if i have to venture a guess.

            • Xabier says:

              Staying curious about this unholy mess is a good strategy for staying reasonably sane.

              At present I feel a certain – healthy – level of fear, which fosters alertness and the drive to plan ahead and be as well informed as possible.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          It’s for a good cause!

          I actually prefer that they be maimed rather than die… that gives them time to suffer and possibly realize how stooooopid they are

  20. Mirror on the wall says:

    Russia is the largest exporter of oil, natural gas, and hard coal to the EU, and the EU is Russia’s biggest trade partner, so there are strong motives for EU and Russia to get along. The EU is asserting its own geopolitical agency in its relations with Russia and China, rather than letting USA fashion everything according to its agenda. UK is split from EU, and buddied up with USA.

    > Berlin and Paris propose reset for EU relations with Moscow

    Germany and France have called for a new EU strategy of closer engagement with Russia.

    Diplomats said Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, wanted the EU to consider inviting the Russian president to a summit with EU leaders, and that the initiative was supported by French president Emmanuel Macron.

    Ambassadors representing Berlin and Paris wrongfooted other EU capitals at a meeting in Brussels on Wednesday by making the new proposals on the relationship with the Kremlin, according to people with knowledge of the discussions.

    Initial discussions between EU and Kremlin officials regarding the various proposals have already taken place, including the feasibility of a summit involving Putin. The Kremlin did not respond to a request for comment from the FT on the proposals.

    The proposed new outreach to Moscow is likely to alarm some EU member countries, such as the Baltic states and Poland, which neighbour Russia and want to take a tougher line with the Kremlin.

    The wording proposed to fellow member states, which if adopted would form part of summit conclusions later this week, reiterated the EU’s willingness for “a selective engagement” with Russia on areas of common interest.

    During the call, according to the Kremlin, “it was pointed out that overcoming mutual hostility and achieving reconciliation between the Russian and German people was of crucial significance for the postwar future of Europe, and that ensuring security on our common continent now is only possible through joint efforts”.

    https://www.ft.com/content/03528026-8fa1-4910-ab26-41cd26404439

    • Yes, the EU needs Russia for trade. But isn’t there still competition for jobs? It seems like that is part of what drives countries apart.

      • Student says:

        Gail, as usual you go right to key points. I have never thought about job competitions between EU and Russia.
        If I can give some insight, living inside EU, I can tell you that (but surely you already know), after the Soviet Union collapse, the wall of berlin fall and also the EU creation, competition for jobs started (and it still goes on) only within Europe.
        In fact many Italian, French, German etc. companies have moved machineries and opened some plants in Poland, Slovakia, Romania and so on, in order to have workers with lower salaries and consequently some plants closed here or have difficulties.
        I don’t know if it is on purpose or not, but Russia focused on energy, food and military, leaving the buying of finished products from EU and now also from China.
        They still have a production of basic products, but they are considered too rough and rudes from Europeans and they literally snob them.
        But, again, I can tell you that, without entering if it is wrong or right (and a part from the British and some Northern European Countries who felt the pressure of Soviet Union in the past), generally Europeans cannot find a real way to hate Russians.
        But, at the same time, Europeans love much US and US people.
        Maybe we are weak, I don’t know, it is probable.
        But surely, on the contrary, we are afraid of Chinese.
        I see as more probable an EU division, because we are too heterogeneous (Countries on the rise and others falling) and we have created too much competition inside us.

        • excellent summing up of us Student

          • Mirror on the wall says:

            I am not the least bit ‘afraid’ of the Chinese. There is close to zero chance of China attacking NATO, unless NATO starts it.

            There are a few Chinese around here; the staff in the oriental supermarket where we get our oriental food stuffs are really friendly and engaging, and we often pass a young Chinese couple when we are out on the evening walk, and they are always smiling and civilised.

            The idea that one might find them more ‘frightening’ than some of the local, young English is not realistic. They have much lower rates of crime and anti-social behaviour than Europeans, close to zero. They are intelligent, they apply themselves, and they are very civilised.

            It is fine with me if the British state draws on HK for fresh workers; a young Chinese woman attended to us at a large British supermarket a few weeks back, for the first time, and she was outstanding in her civility – whereas local Brits often give the impression that they would much rather be at home chilling out, and that engaging with the public is just about the last thing that they fancy just now.

            A young African-American man, the first we ever encountered here, was recently also outstanding, chatting in a humorous manner and wished us a ‘good days, guys’. It is a real eye opener to see how some people are really happy with their humble jobs.

            The Chinese get a definite ‘thumbs up’ from me. Also CCP is much closer to me philosophically and ideologically, while the British state basically lives in a fantasy world of imaginary ideas, the only purpose of which is to manipulate citizens.

            • Mirror, foreigners don’t have to be personally frightening to give people pause. In Prato (high-end garment mfr. area in the center-north of Italy) tens of thousands of Chinese (large numbers there illegally) who have (with the gov.s tacit approval) absolutely flooded and overwhelmed that industry and that area so that cheap Chinese-made goods can truthfully be stamped “Made in Italy”. They are now estimated at almost 1/3 the population of the town.

              It’s sickening to see a thousands-years-old creative culture bled dry and physically replaced by what can only be described as invaders. This may seem “non-violent”, but it really isn’t. There is a toll.

            • Xabier says:

              How awful Lidia, about Prato.

              I bought outdoor gear from the Italian firm Beretta, in a sale as they are expensive, but that was made in E. Europe, I think Roumania.

              ‘The Merchant of Prato’ by Iris Origo, is one of the best books on early European Capitalism, if you haven’t come across it, very well written.

              Might be suitable for the coming Dark Cyber Winter……..

            • Minority Of One says:

              The CCP’s deep sea fishing fleet vessels, reputed to number about 12,000, are stripping the oceans of life. Thumbs down from me.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              It it were me…. I’d force the CCP to accept opium in all those currently empty containers and plunge these vile dogs into another addiction nightmare.

              The Brits had that right.

              A nation of toymakers and copy artists … and pig farmers.

              Burn it to the ground.

            • Bei Dawei says:

              Cor blimey!

              The CCP is a mafia and is mainly interested in passing down power and privilege to their children. Ideology has little to do with it–it’s just a convenient flag to wave.

            • Thanks for the recommendation, Xabier. I have read “War in Val d’Orcia” by her, and have visited her lovely gardens at “La Foce”. We lived a mere fifteen minutes’ drive from there. Painfully beautiful.

            • I’m sure this fellow is extremely jolly company, when he’s not cooking your kitty cat on the sidewalk outside your house…
              https://www.nextquotidiano.it/gatto-arrostito-a-campiglia-marittima-cosa-e-successo/

              The individual was “identified” but, for whatever reason, not arrested or charged in any way..

              Good look at our future, though.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I see you have sucked on the CCP PR Tit….

              Meanwhile 1M idle in the concentration … I mean education camps…Their ambassador to the UK when asked about this on Hard Talk said ‘those are your international human rights – they don’t apply China’

              They continue to sell the body organs of political prisoners… that would shock Orwell.

              And in Hong Kong if you make even the slightest negative comment about the CCP busloads of gestapo arrive at your door. https://apnews.com/article/hong-kong-6125c0d6462e5f0462289f1e93f5f719

              Wake the f789 up —- this is a vile monster — and it needs to be strangled in its crib then incinerated at high heat. If not then Boot on Neck Forever applies… (although of course the CEP will pre-empt that).

              Most Chinese (not HKers … mainland Chinese) are now Zombies… they actually think that being denied freedoms — not being allowed to access any media other than the CCP Zombie Media — is good… that’s what happens when you are pounded for decades with North Korean – like brain washing…

              You become a Zombie … because you know nothing else.

              Fortunately our guys (CIA and Friends) are in between the Zombies/CCP … and the rest of us… and they’ll sort these Thugs out. It’s good to have the meanest dog on side.

              And btw — I am still looking out for my opportunity to get a bit of payback on a Zombie… one has to tread carefully and make sure to provoke them into attacking… then respond….

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Eddy, I do not do hysterical situations, so do not try to drag me into them. I have made plain before that I do not ‘bat’ for any economic state or international organisation – any more than you do for USA or the British Empire. If they had been ‘strangled in the crib’ then the near genocide of entire continents might have been avoided, and you would not be in NZ at all. But of course, history is what it is, and there is nothing that any of us personally can do about it. I have never been particularly interested in personal posturing about it. USA has made serious accusations about China at the UN, and most countries reject them as unfounded. But of course, the UN was founded by the winners of WWII, and it has its own dynamics. I have no particular interest in the matter. Btw. if you are going to mount the moral ‘high horse’, then perhaps you should not publicly favour ‘CEP’, the extermination of the human species.

              Lidia, there are Chinese posters and readers on here, so maybe it would be courteous to cut out the crude xenophobia. If you want to campaign against foreigners, then there are websites for that, but this is not one of them. Thanks.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Another option is to starve the Zombies…. they are big time reliant on food imports.

              If it was me I’d say — get your zombies out of Hong Kong …. and stop food shipments for a week… if that didn’t work we go for a month… and we keep going…

              Then even after they agree…. drop the nuke on the CCP HQ…. just to show them how vindictive Fast Eddy can be… and as a message not to f789 with me in the future.

              Zombie Scum

              I could be a fantastic Elder….

            • 3000 comments

              1000 from a single source

              just pointing it out

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Your welcome

            • well, in here by forming the receptacle for those 1000 sources of infinite wisdom

              we are performing a public service to the rest of the world

            • Fast Eddy says:

              You are polluting OFW with rubbish

            • when seeking definition on any subject

              one should always seek the opinion of an acknowledged expert

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Latest CDC VAERS Data Show Reported Injuries Surpass 7,000 in Ages 12 to 17 Following COVID Vaccines

              VAERS data released today by the CDC showed a total of 387,087 reports of adverse events from all age groups following COVID vaccines, including 6,113 deaths and 31,240 serious injuries between Dec. 14, 2020 and June 18, 2021.

              https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/cdc-vaers-data-injuries-surpass-7000-ages-12-to-17-covid-vaccines/

              Anyone who supports the Injection is a … Child Murderer.

              Norm … do you support the child Injections?

            • there seems to be no depths to which your comments will not sink

              to even attempt to reply would reduce me to the same level

            • Fast Eddy says:

              That’s a valid question Norm … are you a child murderer or not?

            • Good point!

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Bei, if you read carefully, you will notice that I said that I give a thumbs up to the Chinese [people], I did not say that I endorse all of the policies of the CCP or any corruption in the state. I said that CCP is philosophically and ideologically closer to me, which many Westerners might say about ‘liberal’ states without endorsing those states, their modus operandi, their policies or their corruption. I am generally pretty careful about what I do and do not say, and it might be worth bearing that in mind.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              China = Zombie Land

            • Bei Dawei says:

              I don’t consider anti-PRC comments to be racist or xenophobic. In fact, considering what the PRC has been up to lately, maybe we should consider *pro*-PRC comments to be that. Otherwise, it’s like you don’t care about the Uighurs, Tibetans, Hong Kongers, etc.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Bei, I was talking about the stereotype of the Chinese cooking up the local wildlife. Maybe you need to read a bit a more carefully? If you think that they want you in Italy any more than any other Han, then you are deluding yourself. The only people who have cooked up the wildlife in UK are southern Europeans, like Bulgarians, but you do not see us singling them out.

              Say whatever you like about CCP, I could not care less. That is not my personal drama. There are many peoples in the world who are suffering dislocations and persecutions. Approaching 100 M are displaced from their homes right now, including a lot of Christians. I do not single out some for especial sympathy to advance my political or geopolitical leanings, and then try to slander other people that they ‘do not care’. That is corny and it is not considered to be on.

            • From Asian people I have known and read of, they seem to be pragmatic individuals and not such snowflakes as to be unduly wounded by descriptions of fact. They also seem to be doing a pretty good job of limiting immigration into their own countries and maintaining their core cultures and values. They are perhaps to be admired and imitated in this.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Once we’re done addicting them… let’s drop a few nukes onto the CCP HQ … just for the fun of it!

            • Plus, Mirror, it’s you who didn’t read or watch the clip. It was a migrant from the Ivory Coast, not a Chinese person, who roasted the cat on the sidewalk in an Italian residential area. You jumped to your own separate “racist” conclusion.

              I actually don’t have a problem with what people choose to eat. I’m fine with them eating whatever they like as long as they do it wherever they come from. Cannibals in Liberia are A-OK with me. I’m not judgy in that way.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I don’t mind Chinese people — so long as they are not from Zombie Land

              Feed the zombies opium!

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Lidia, LOL.

              I understand that you have your own subjectivity and perspective, everyone does. Humans are deeply tribal and territorial animals, like our cousins the chimps, and our common ancestor. Industrial capitalism does not function according to those perspectives these days, the capitalist states care only about money, more workers, growing GDP and servicing debt. A lot of people get stressed out by modern trends – but industrial civilisation is coming to an end anyway. Far be it from me to play the morality police. I generally try not to get stressed by the world, I just do my little bit in my little world – like S. Theresa says.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              It sounds like Eddie needs his medication – or to get laid – or possibly both.

              “Kill them all, kill them all!”

        • Thanks for your observations on what is happening.

  21. John R. says:

    Thank you, James; I agree completely:  The universe isn’t manufacturing geniuses like Meadows and his now-deceased wife Donella anymore.  And you can tell this man takes it personally and doesn’t see the world through charts and graphs only.  He chose not to have kids since he knew intuitively and logically that humans were going to drive the earth into utter disaster.
    —–
    A few of us take suffering seriously on this site, but not many.  Apparently, it is “pointless” to care, even though the future will be horrific

    Xabier’s response to James:  By not having children, the course of history isn’t altered one bit. Those who are born work their way through the resources just the same; or rather their machines do. Noble aspiration, possibly, but quite pointless.

    Xabier’s response to Dennis L.:  I agree with your positive bias, Dennis: but I fear that you don’t have the faintest idea what the Bio-Digital-Military Complex has planned for us. Few people do. It is appalling, and insane, the enemy of the human qualities which you value.

    • el mar says:

      The jabs are the finishing shots for a rotting and insane industrial civilisation.

      • Xabier says:

        Put like that, I almost feel like cheering, el Mar.

        And yet, because I know that they probably don’t intend to kill us all in the West, and in fact have a new digitised slave system lined up, there still seems to be something to fight for, even if this current set up is rotten.

        Rather like those who fought for Britain in WW2, loathing capitalism and the suffering of the 1930’s, because Hitler was far worse.

    • Dennis L. says:

      John R.

      Regarding first paragraph. There are 8B people on earth, if one takes the top .1% in intelligence this implies there are 8M people in this group, adjust by age distribution as one sees fit. If one settles for the top 1% of the world population, one has 80m people. Competition is very stiff, some research has been done, is on the books.

      Elon did not think his childrens’ schools were very good, so he hired his own teacher and now if I am correct SpaceX employees have their own private school, problem solving apparently is high on the list.

      This may explain some of the social issues we are experiencing. Per Jordan Peterson, the very top of the IQ scale is dominated by males, look at photos of the top research institutions, companies etc., some groups are noticeable by their absence.

      This group is very large, very diverse and if history is a guide as well as J. Peterson’s lobster hierarchy, there will be friction. We survive as a society, we have some interesting challenges ahead besides oil, coal and gas.

      Dennis L.

      • Xabier says:

        I’m inclined to feel these days, that the ‘brightest’ people are causing so much trouble, and have so little ethical sense (one imagines their education neglects ethics) – like those who ran Hitler’s Germany – that we should take them out and shoot them.

        Their schemes are horrifying.

        • Dennis L. says:

          No argument,

          How do you think Pope Urban VIII felt about the earth no longer being the center of the universe. Frustrating, all those sermons needed to be rewritten and ideas changed.

          Dennis L.

        • Bei Dawei says:

          Tell me more about ethics.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Where is Hitler when you need him!

          He almost unseated those pesky Elders once….

      • Bei Dawei says:

        Men also dominate the bottom of the IQ scale. (The bell curve is flatter for men than for women.)

  22. StarvingLion says:

    Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Wednesday urged Congress to raise or suspend the U.S. debt limit, saying failure to do so would have “catastrophic” consequences for the U.S. economy. Speaking at a Senate hearing on the Treasury’s budget, Yellen said she would plead with Congress to raise the limit “as soon as possible.” A suspension of the debt limit expires after July 31. The Treasury would after that have to take so-called extraordinary measures to prevent the U.S. from defaulting, and Yellen told lawmakers that the point of default could come in August. Yellen earlier this year said her department was concerned that such measures would last a limited time.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/yellen-says-extraordinary-measures-to-avoid-default-could-run-out-in-august-2021-06-23?mod=home-page

    • Yes, having the debt limit kick in how would be catastrophic, I agree. I don’t remember anyone talking in similar terms before, however.

      • jj says:

        And more debt is more dollar dilution. Gonna take a few dollars soon for a loaf of bread with them so diluted. The fed has no brakes. How far could they raise interest rates? Maybe 1%. Even that would have profound dollar dilution consequences as the short term treasuries debt flipping over just got a lot more expensive. So assuming they could raise interest rates 1 % without something breaking that action designed to stop dollar dilution would also add to it via increased borrowing cost for USA. No brakes. Dollar dilution will go where it will no brakes to slow it. Not that 1% would brake even if it didnt add speed. Increase the debt limit. And again. Were very close to the end of the ponzi IMO.

        But …

        BAU tonight baby!

  23. StarvingLion says:

    MacAfee was “suicided” to death. Aka assassination. The same thing will happen to Bill Gates and the wrong Pump-n-Dump Crypto Pumpers. Was you end up in jail, its bye bye.

    https://nypost.com/2021/06/23/john-mcafee-dies-by-suicide-inside-prison-in-barcelona/

    Antivirus software tycoon John McAfee died by an apparent suicide in a Spanish jail cell Wednesday evening — hours after reports surfaced that he would be extradited to face federal charges in the US, according to local media.

    The eccentric tech entrepreneur was arrested in October and was awaiting extradition when he was found dead, police sources told the newspaper El Pais.

    The newspaper reported McAfee was pulled from his cell in Barcelona and police are investigating the circumstances around his death.

    Earlier on Wednesday, the Spanish High Court had agreed to extradite McAfee, who has been charged with a number of federal financial crimes in two districts in the United States.

    McAfee was hit with a 10-count indictment in the Western District of Tennessee in October for allegedly evading taxes on millions of dollars in income.

    He was also charged in a separate indictment in Manhattan federal court in March for a pump and dump scheme involving cryptocurrencies that he was touting on social media.

    • Bei Dawei says:

      Why would anybody want to murder him?

      • eKnock says:

        Same old thing…… He knew took much.

        • Thierry says:

          Indeed!
          https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/1286979502753624064?lang=fr
          He talked about the deep state last year, now he is dead.

          • Thierry says:

            He has said many interesting things on twitter.
            One of the latest before dying :”Three years ago I predicted a war between governments and crypto. The FED now calls crypto a threat to economic stability and China is outlawing it.

            The war is on and I am a major target.

            Do not be afraid. Crypto is our last hope for financial independence.”

            It seems we should be afraid, now.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            The Deep State are the minions of the Elders

            • Xabier says:

              Minions and catamites.

              Just a word from Lord Rothschild, and all the machinery of lies and assassinations can be set in motion, and all the minions set a-dancing.

              They sometimes make their own little plans, of course, but that’s no matter.

              And they are so cheap!

              A promise of future security, some share tips, a mere few hundred K of dollars, even just a little temporary power, and they are bought as easily as in a Libyan slave market.

              Let’s look on the bright side: this is even more entertaining than the Fall of Rome, as we get so much information on a global spectacle – and here we know what it all means (well, most of us……..)

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Dogs and humans do tricks for treats.

              Just think what we could make humans do if we had this machine

              https://youtu.be/WEMCYBPUR00

              Hey Norm Dunc… I could even invent a position for you guys … how about -co-Tsars of GW… I would have someone pull together a list of bs tasks for you guys to do so that you were convinced it was a real position … pay you 500k per year working remotely of course… with private jet perks for when you need to fly to some exotic destination to advise on how to reduce carbon burning …

              I imagine you’d support just about anything I asked you to support — or turn a blind eye…. if your Fat Jobs were contingent upon doing so….

              Actually I don’t imagine — I KNOW.

              My dog was so reluctant to come in off her porch perch yesterday… a crinkling of the treats plastic bag and she scampered through the door…. money printer go brrr norm…dunc… money printer go brrr….

              The Elders understand that power comes out of the end of the printer

            • Bei Dawei says:

              I’m still not seeing a sensible motivation. He was about to be extradited to the USA. Anybody who hated him should have wanted him to go there. And c-theoriests are a dime a dozen these days–that’s no reason to kill somebody.

            • Xabier says:

              Here’s a great example of how easy it is to buy people, if you are an Elder.

              A guy told his financial adviser (who has a quite good YT channel on finance, gets the Great Re-set and has had videos banned) that he knows his work on automation will soon put millions out of work – that is the sole intention.

              He feels uneasy about that, not being completely psychopathic, and even claims some sleepless nights.

              But:

              ‘They pay me $500k, My family has a great life, and I just can’t give that up.’

              So, he is a mere catamite of the Elders, knowing he will indirectly do harm to others,earning what is peanuts to them (and paying tax on it!) and whom they will discard in turn.

              Doesn’t even have a gun to his head, no blackmail – just a big enough doggy treat.

            • The purpose of automation is to produce goods at ever-cheaper rates. Fair enough.

              unfortunately robots only produce stuff.

              they do not consume stuff.

              so by putting millions out of work, robots will destroy their own purpose.

              Because no one will able to buy the goods they produce. Especially if most of us have been allowed to starve to death.

              (Just thought it was worth mentioning, in case the Deep State and Elders are so busy resetting they haven’t figured it out already)

            • Good point! Something I have said before.

            • Ed says:

              Norm, there is a science fiction story in which the hero realizes robots can be used to consume goods.

            • there wasn’t a link–but no matter

              if robots were built to consume goods, then that makes human beings no more than spectators at a demolition derby

    • Strange!

    • Tim Groves says:

      If he was that rich, he could have faked his suicide, changed his identity and moved to Thailand, Turkey or Timbuktu.

      • Bei Dawei says:

        He was on his way to Turkey when he was arrested. But Mali? That couldn’t be anybody’s first choice.

  24. StarvingLion says:

    Bonus question #3: What if the FDA flat out denies or even halts these jabs due to the beyond obvious safety issues? They are so backed into a corner at the moment and so “ALL IN” that I have popcorn every night watching this mess going on. For if they do deny (or even delay) jab approval you can be sure the NWO globalists will execute the backup plan immediately: Total worldwide financial system collapse. It is BEYOND due a severe correction and with all the insane leverage, once it bursts, this thing is coming unglued.

    • The FDA seems to be going along with this so far.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      I’d imagine if the CEP fails… the back up might involving launching thousands of nuclear weapons…. the problem is this would not kill 8B people straight away… so those who survive would Rip Faces Off.

      Still… Plan B is better than no Plan B…

      I would be a big fan of all out nuclear annihilation

  25. StarvingLion says:

    Bill Gates is the Fall Guy for the Vaxx.

    He thought he was part of the club but actually was the sucker at the table. His involvement with nuclear energy wrote his ticket to join Kurt Cobain.

    He will go on trial for crimes against humanity.

    Then he will do a Hermann Goering and “commit suicide” (he will be forced to take poison). In effect, an assassination.

    Its already been scripted. Look how everyone is dumping him like he was a leper.

    • I am not convinced of this.

      • Student says:

        I agree with Gail. Maybe someone has paid attention that at the G7 meeting his wife has been invited instead of him to follow the same issues. It simply seems that she will take care of the same projects instead of her (ex) husband. The impression is that they decided it’s time for him to go out of the picture, being now a cumbersome person and let her manage vaccines projects, who is, on the contrary, a well presentable figure.

        ‘ G7 countries and guests will be joined by Sir Patrick Vallance and Melinda French Gates who will present their 100 day mission to speed up the time it takes to develop vaccines, treatments and diagnostics ‘

        https://www.gov.uk/government/news/g7-leaders-to-agree-landmark-global-health-declaration-12-june-2021

        Maybe he will be out of the scene for a while, taking care, in the meantime, of other projects.

        • Xabier says:

          Gates’ cultivated persona as a ‘ global philanthropist’ rather crumbled, so he exits and Melinda comes forward as innocent substitute.

          Primitive stuff, really. They have a very low estimate of the intelligence of the public.

          Those who saw her smirking in the important video when Bill talked about the next pandemic, when ‘everyone will really take notice’, will know just what to think of Melinda.

          Evil, quite evil – and I do not say that lightly. A most ugly expression.

        • Xabier says:

          The ‘100 days’ plan probably means that they will automatically impose immediate 3-month lock-downs with martial law, once a ‘novel virus’ has been detected by their fantastic innovative global security system.

          No more of that ‘Just 2 weeks’ nonsense.

    • Azure Kingfisher says:

      Bill Gates is a descendant of the dynastic families that run our scripted “reality.” That is why he is in a position of power and wealth. His life was probably scripted before his birth and he exercises little agency of his own. Dynastic families do not continue to rule if their members deviate from the script. I suspect it is part of the script that Bill Gates is to be perceived as the villain on the world stage. He used to play the hero once. Now he’s simply switching costumes, as determined by the scriptwriters.

      https://famouskin.com/famous-kin-menu.php?name=34818+bill+gates

      “All the world’s a stage,
      And all the men and women merely players;
      They have their exits and their entrances;
      And one man in his time plays many parts…”

      William Shakespeare
      from “As You Like It,” spoken by Jaques

      A question to consider: if a person dies on the world stage (i.e. the realm of mass media communication) do they always necessarily die in reality?

  26. John R. says:

    Thank you, James; I agree completely: The universe isn’t manufacturing geniuses like Meadows and his now-deceased wife Donella anymore.  And you can tell this man takes it personally and doesn’t see the world through charts and graphs only.  He chose not to have kids since he knew intuitively and logically that humans were going to drive the earth into utter disaster.
    —–
    A few of us take suffering seriously on this site, but not many. Oh, the sheer wackiness and imbalance presented here. Xabier still thinks it is not worth the effort to refrain from pumping out more babies; in other words, it is “pointless” to care despite the horrors to come.

    Xabier’s response to James: By not having children, the course of history isn’t altered one bit. Those who are born work their way through the resources just the same; or rather their machines do. Noble aspiration, possibly, but quite pointless.

    Xabier’s response to Dennis L.: I agree with your positive bias, Dennis: but I fear that you don’t have the faintest idea what the Bio-Digital-Military Complex has planned for us. Few people do. It is appalling, and insane, the enemy of the human qualities which you value.

    • Very Far Frank says:

      “The universe isn’t manufacturing geniuses like Meadows and his now-deceased wife Donella anymore.”

      “He chose not to have kids since he knew intuitively and logically that humans were going to drive the earth into utter disaster.”

      SLOW.. CLAP.

      Intelligent, insightful people who can project forwards choose anti-natalism and therefore we lose that capacity as a species. Heredity is a inconvenient truth; let’s not be so short-termist as to end that capacity because our children will go through the proverbial cheese-grater. It simply means those that survive will have a higher tolerance for suffering than our sheltered generation.

      • Tim Groves says:

        Aye, there’s some truth in that.

        It is close to certain that the generations of people living before the second world war going back to time immemorial had a higher tolerance for suffering than our sheltered generations do, as well as a much more fully developed sense of humor. The capacities are there in our genes. It just needs the right environmental conditions to bring them to the fore.

        • Xabier says:

          They saw so many children die, and hard physical work was the lot of many, so they were generally that much tougher.

          And they admired strength and Stoicism, which we are are taught is somehow ‘toxic’.

          ‘A great life, sir, if you don’t weaken!’ (Sergeant on guard to Winston Churchill during the Blitz).

  27. Pingback: How Energy Transition Models Go Wrong | AlltopCash.com

  28. Dennis L. says:

    More from a grumpy old man:

    Industry, Perseverance & Frugality, make Fortune yield.
    Dost thos love Life, then do not squander Time, for that’s the
    Stuff Life is made of.
    There are no Gains, with out Pains.
    No man e’er was glorious, who is not laborious.
    Be at War with your vices, at Peace with your Neighbors.
    He that can have patience can have what he will.
    To lengthen thy life, lessen thy meals.
    Leisure is Time for doing something useful.
    Deligence is the mother of good luck.

    This was written before electricity, before oil.

    Thus the United States came into the world a quintessential Triple Package Nation … a Puritan inheritance of impulse control.

    Our biggest losers are Hollywood and their promotion of vice and rehab.

    The little ditty: Poor Richard’s Almanack. There is no mention of not being able to find a job, etc. Those ideas worked from a few hundreds’ of years. Each of us has far more materially than was possible for anyone of that time, anyone. It has been done, it can be done.

    Dennis L.

    • I like the poem. Diligence and hard work are indeed helpful.

      I am not certain that formula works for today’s young people. They end up with a lot of college debt, and a job that pays far too little to repay it. Or the skills they learn in school soon get old. When one job ends, they have a hard time earning as much on the next job. This is especially a problem with programming.

  29. My husband and I will be leaving on a short trip today, returning Saturday. I will not be available as much for commenting.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      Have a lovely time!

    • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

      Enjoy your road trip and hope you find the visit interesting. Very scenic part of the country.

      Axios
      Subsidies for fossil fuels dropped sharply last year, but are likely to rebound

      Ben Geman
      Wed, June 23, 2021, 9:20 AM
      Reproduced from IEA; Chart: Axios Visuals

      An International Energy Agency analysis shows that subsidies for consumers’ use of gasoline, diesel and other fuels dropped sharply last year — but are headed for a rebound.

      Why it matters: The IEA and many policymakers say phasing out subsidies is a tool for combating climate change

      But it’s tricky. While subsidies often flow to people who don’t need them, they also help poor consumers obtain needed energy.

      The big picture: The pandemic-driven collapse in fuel demand and prices dropped the aggregate value greatly last year.

      But IEA said rebounding prices and use, alongside “hesitant progress on pricing reforms,” will likely push them back up this year.

      “This is a worrying trend at a time when countries need to be redoubling efforts to accelerate energy transitions,” it notes.

      How it works: The tally above looks at consumption subsidies for oil, power, gas and coal. The top five countries are Iran, China, India, Saudi Arabia and Russia

      Whatever it takes to keep Fast Eddy commenting here on OFW👍😅

    • Xabier says:

      Seize the moment, Gail!

      We will squabble merrily in your absence, no doubt…….

  30. Mirror on the wall says:

    “Who do you think that you are, ‘swanning in’ to our nearby waters?”

    > Russian ship fired warning shots at Royal Navy destroyer, Moscow says

    Moscow says shots were fired after HMS Defender entered its waters in Black Sea

    A Russian military ship has fired warning shots at a British Royal Navy vessel in the Black Sea and a Russian jet dropped bombs in its path, Interfax cited Russia’s defence ministry as saying on Wednesday.

    The ministry said HMS Defender left what it called Russian waters soon afterwards, having ventured as much as 3km (2 miles) inside. The incident took place near Cape Fiolent, the ministry said, a landmark on the coast of Crimea.

    Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine in 2014 in a move condemned by the west, which still considers it Ukrainian territory.

    “The destroyer had been warned that weapons would be used if it trespasses the border of the Russian Federation. It did not react to the warning,” it said, adding that a Russian Su-24 bomber had dropped four high-explosive fragmentation bombs as a warning.

    The British Ministry of Defence did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/23/russian-ship-fired-warning-shots-at-royal-navy-destroyer-hms-defender-moscow-says

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      The British state is denying the entire story. One approach to an embarrassing episode is to simply deny that it happened.

      > Amid claim and counterclaim, the incident stayed true to a maxim that truth is often the first casualty of conflict.

      That version was contradicted in a statement from the British Ministry of Defence. Its message denied any warning shots were fired, asserted the Defender was in international waters, and claimed the Russians were carrying out a planned military activity.

      “No warning shots have been fired at HMS Defender,” read a tweet from the MoD. “The Royal Navy ship is conducting innocent passage through Ukrainian territorial waters in accordance with international law.”

      It continued: “We believe the Russians were undertaking a gunnery exercise in the Black Sea and provided the maritime community with prior-warning of their activity. No shots were directed at HMS Defender and we do not recognise the claim that bombs were dropped in her path.”

      …. A spokesman for Moscow’s Foreign Ministry said it had summoned the UK ambassador and military attache over the incident. Maria Zakaharova said Moscow viewed the incident as “a crude British provocation” that “runs counter to international and Russian law.”

      https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-british-ship-black-sea-b1871245.html

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        It seems that the British state deliberately committed an international crime to provoke Russia, and then lied to the British public about it. I doubt that any of us voted for that.

        > BBC defence correspondent Jonathan Beale, who is on board the British vessel, said HMS Defender’s crew were primed and weapons systems loaded as they approached the southern tip of the peninsula.

        He said: ‘Increasingly hostile warnings were issued over the radio – including one that said ‘if you don’t change course I’ll fire’. We did hear some firing in the distance but they were believed to be well out of range.’

        Captain Vincent Owen said his mission was confident but non-confrontational and insisted he was maintaining course on an internationally recognised shipping lane but Mr Beale said it was a ‘deliberate move to make a point to Russia’.

        Moscow has now summoned Britain’s military attaché and ambassador Deborah Bronnert to explain why the destroyer entered the waters.

        Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova also denounced what she called ‘rude British provocation that defies international law’.

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        The British state has officially lied to the British public today, about its criminal acts in the Black Sea to provoke Russia. A BBC correspondent was on board, and he has given an account of what he observed.

        https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57583363

        > Jonathan Beale filed a report from the deck of HMS Defender in the Black Sea as it sailed to Georgia. He described hostile warnings over the radio as the warship’s crew prepared for a possible confrontation.

        Our correspondent, who had been invited on board the ship before the incident happened, saw more than 20 aircraft overhead and two Russian coastguard boats which at times were just 100m (328ft) away.

        This is at odds with statements from both the British prime minister’s office and defence ministry, which denied any confrontation.

        * * *

        On board HMS Defender

        Jonathan Beale, Defence Correspondent

        I am on board the warship in the Black Sea.

        The crew were already at action stations as they approached the southern tip of Russian-occupied Crimea. Weapons systems on board the Royal Navy destroyer had already been loaded.

        This would be a deliberate move to make a point to Russia. HMS Defender was going to sail within the 12 mile (19km) limit of Crimea’s territorial waters. The captain insisted he was only seeking safe passage through an internationally recognised shipping lane.

        Two Russian coastguard ships that were shadowing the Royal Navy warship, tried to force it to alter its course. At one stage, one of the Russian vessels closed in to about 100m.

        Increasingly hostile warnings were issued over the radio – including one that said “if you don’t change course I’ll fire”. We did hear some firing in the distance but they were believed to be well out of range.

        As HMS Defender sailed through the shipping lane it was buzzed by Russian jets. The Captain, Vincent Owen, said the ship detected more than 20 military aircraft nearby. Commander Owen said his mission was confident but non-confrontational.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      • Frightening new world we live in. It seems like the UK needs all the friends it can get now. It is hard to see what they gain from entering Russian water,h

        • Xabier says:

          A few years ago, I met the commander of one of Britain’s bomber units at a party.

          I realised that he had been brainwashed into thinking that Russia is a dangerous enemy, and Putin comparable to Hitler.

          A great pilot I’m sure, but simple, very patriotic, thinker.

          This latest incident is as ridiculous and sinister as the Salisbury ‘poisonings’.

      • Bobby says:

        Probing defences to ascertain reaction and capabilities. Monitoring by satiate to locate potential military assets positions. Also distraction and wasting resource, while generating negative sentiments.

  31. Sam says:

    In the states the west is going to be on fire from extreme dryness and heat . How do insurance companies pay out on housing that is now $300,000 higher in a lot of cases? It’s going to be billions of dollars. I am surprised they even cover a lot of these houses. In the end the government will end up paying for it do use federal funds and all that debt will just disappear.

    • Policies are rated on the maximum dollar amount of coverage they provide. If homeowners bought additional coverage based on the higher cost, they will have full coverage. Perhaps not, if they did not.

      • FoolishFitz says:

        You understand the insurance market Gail, so does this look genuine and if it does what are the implications?
        Worthless insurance cover?

        https://twitter.com/DrButtar/status/1406029553546543106?s=20

        I know you’re not keen on twitter links, but this next one is a good reminder of who is doing what and how we should interpret their actions, or maybe their insurance policies😏

        https://twitter.com/EwaMazierska/status/1407246458278002690?s=20

        Have a wonderful time away, feel free to ignore questions and enjoy the natural pace of life, as this man is learning.

        https://t.co/73FQHgxmPP?amp=1

        • We have been doing some off of the expressway driving in Eastern Tennessee. I have never seen so many double wide trailers for sale in my life. Two of these rectangular trailers fit together to form an almost square shaped low-cost home. I think the problem is that they aren’t very long-lasting. If there is a wind storm, they tend to blow away. I am sure that they are popular with low-income people.

          I agree that it is easy for people to get carried away with cell phones. I like to use my phone to call people old friends when I am out on a walk. That way I can visit and walk at the same time.

  32. NoOne says:

    Good article.
    Regarding the population dilemma, I would suggest that the cultural materialism theory is right on the spot, seeing population as a driver of production (as long as there are resources and energy available). Population only needs to stop growing for everything to fall apart, and pretty quickly at that.
    Actually, if one views money as a trust in the narrative of more (a promise of more in the future, which it is, at its most basic act of promising back with interest), then places money in the mental superstructure (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_materialism_(anthropology)), one might find it to be the Theory Of Everything 🙂
    I suspect a stair step collapse will be played out, with steps starting at 1+ year interval (the current step down), and quickly being reduced to months (financial implosion) then weeks (food and electricity supply chains breakdowns), then lights out (societal breakdown, or Ripping Off of Faces as FE calls it).

    • Thanks for your insights.

      Money is indeed closely related to the narrative of ever more for the future. People have grown up believing this. Economists, with their belief that the future will always be similar to the past, are the high priests of this belief. Faith in money is a little like faith in the vaccine.

      You may be right about the timing of the stair step collapse. We know that extractions of materials tend to follow a so-called Hubbert Curve. The shape of the collapse is likely somewhat similar, except steeper, in “Seneca Curve” fashion. A financial implosion does not look to be too far away (months). Food and electricity supply chains will soon follow after a financial implosion.

    • Artleads says:

      What, if anything, is being done to change this “mental superstructure?” I hope it isn’t going to be the usual raw surplus energy recommendation. Something simply MUST change mentally before we get to FE’s “final version.” And no amount or degree of coercion toward that change would seem to be wrong.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      “In spite of the debt owed to the economic theories of Marx and Engels, cultural materialism rejects the Marxist dialectic which in turn was based on the theories of the philosopher Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel.” – wiki

      I think that is a bit unfair, Marx and Engels were minded to dump any Hegelian aspect to their presentation of historical materialism, which had been due to the intellectual climate surrounding their earlier writings, and to their own personal break from Hegelian ‘idealism’.

      Marxism is concerned ‘laws’ of historical development, in which the productive social relations are transformed through the hindrance that they come to place to the further development of the productive means, and through the organised struggle of those whose ‘interests’ are not served by the status quo – and there is no need to dress that up in ‘dialectical’ ‘Hegelian’ terms.

      Perhaps Harris just needed a simple way to ‘distance’ himself publicly from orthodox Marxism, to which he obviously owed much.

  33. Pingback: How Power Transition Fashions Go Mistaken - IO Herald

  34. Adonis says:

    Gail what if the elders drop the population to 200 million cant growth go on under a much higher en ed Energy per capita?

    • Which is true but she is being politically correct

    • Falling population by itself is a problem in a self-organizing economy.

    • I think there are tipping points beyond which certain processes can’t continue due to the “economics of scale” that seemed to justify them. For example, bus routes don’t make sense if 50% of the riders disappear. Large schools will be abandoned. You can’t justify new factories with diminishing prospects for sales.

      If you haven’t read David Korowicz, that is the stuff to read about the existential trauma systems can undergo.

  35. Fast Eddy says:

    I think they are going to lose this legal challenge to over turn mandatory student INJECTIONS

    https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/jim-bopp-tucker-carlson-indiana-u-vaccine-mandate-unconstitutional/

    Either way doesn’t matter… we have 2B+ CovIDIOTS injected already .. the Devil is Coming Soon hahaha

    Well done CovIDIOTS – you have done your community service for the Elders 🙂

    • Hubbs says:

      We have let the legal system transform itself into a tar baby that will entrap all of society. ‘Rule of Law” has transformed itself from de jure to de facto and is random, arbitrary and capricious, which negates its reason for existing in the first place. Everything is agenda driven, and to that end, overt censorship, shadow banning, and downright refusal to allow the evidence to see the light of day is the norm. Statutes are parroted by Judges in their opinions and then promptly ignored.

      Applying the justification for upholding the ACA in that if no one is now being forced to pay premiums (“no harm”) , then there is “no foul” to vaccination requirements,
      if there is a “vaccine” that is claimed or is “undisputed” to be effective, and if that “vaccine” is being made available to the public at no cost, then there can be no foul. Righteous ignorant people argue others may transmit COVID because they did not choose to get vaccinated. But the argument is moot. The complainants’ remedy is simply to get the vaccine and shut up. They shouldn’t care what the unvaccinated do.
      Choir be seated.

  36. Ross Clark says:

    Your article is based on assuming the same energy demand to maintain the same life styles – a complete disruption and change of lifestyle (downwards) would be an essential need to have any chance of adaption – and it ‘aint’ going to happen, is it?

    • I don’t think that a complete disruption and change of lifestyle could happen. We do not have the skills to do subsistence farming. We couldn’t support a population anywhere nearly as high as it is today.

      We would need some sort of animals to transport goods if we don’t have vehicles, but we have not bred enough of the right kinds of animals. We would need facilities and food for these animals, and some way of cleaning up after them, especially in the cities.

      We couldn’t plan on antibiotics to cure common diseases. Death rates would be much higher.

      We couldn’t count on modern clean fresh water and sanitation. Somehow, waste would need to be used as fertilizer for crops.

      Women (and it would be women) would have close to full time jobs raising several children and preparing food. Women would likely be involved in growing and storage of food as well.

    • Artleads says:

      And there is no need to assume that one lifestyle stops dead in its tracks, to be succeeded by a “better” one starting from scratch. What could be happening now that isn’t happening, for instance? We’ve also seen “disruptive” economic changes before, and that didn’t quickly kill everybody Why is it obvious that no significant disruptive change (that is relatively useful) can’t be made within the system we have? And why would such changes have to be technological and based solely on raw energy?

  37. An article from the WSJ Opinion page by two professors, one an associate professor of medicine at UCLA’s David Geffen School of Medicine, the other a professor of epidemiology at Yale’s School of Public Health.

    Are Covid Vaccines Riskier Than Advertised?
    There are concerning trends on blood clots and low platelets, not that the authorities will tell you.

    The database can’t say what would have happened in the absence of vaccination. Nonetheless, the large clustering of certain adverse events immediately after vaccination is concerning, and the silence around these potential signals of harm reflects the politics surrounding Covid-19 vaccines. Stigmatizing such concerns is bad for scientific integrity and could harm patients.

    Four serious adverse events follow this arc, according to data taken directly from Vaers: low platelets (thrombocytopenia); noninfectious myocarditis, or heart inflammation, especially for those under 30; deep-vein thrombosis; and death. Vaers records 321 cases of myocarditis within five days of receiving a vaccination, falling to almost zero by 10 days. Prior research has shown that only a fraction of adverse events are reported, so the true number of cases is almost certainly higher. This tendency of underreporting is consistent with our clinical experience.

    Analyses to confirm or dismiss these findings should be performed using large data sets of health-insurance companies and healthcare organizations. The CDC and FDA are surely aware of these data patterns, yet neither agency has acknowledged the trend.

    The implication is that the risks of a Covid-19 vaccine may outweigh the benefits for certain low-risk populations, such as children, young adults and people who have recovered from Covid-19. This is especially true in regions with low levels of community spread, since the likelihood of illness depends on exposure risk.

    And while you would never know it from listening to public-health officials, not a single published study has demonstrated that patients with a prior infection benefit from Covid-19 vaccination.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      ‘politics’ hahahahahahaha…

      Politics is two parties fighting over who gets the most corruption money…

      This is right to the top – it’s the Elders… and they are making certain the MSM ignores all the deaths and injuries… because they need people to take the Injection to ensure the CEP is completed.

      But nobody knows about this – only Fast Eddy and the CEP authors… and a handful of FE acolytes….

      Even if FE argues this and provides evidence that points to a CEP…. 8B people would reject this

      Of course they would! Keep in mind they’ve been kept hopeful with the CG > EV + Solar Energy story for decades now…. because the Elders know what happens if the Goy are fed the truth….

      The Goy cannot handle the truth. Of course they can’t …

  38. Josh 58 says:

    Norm said:  there is no latest technology . . . all the technology we have rides on the back of the old technology of fossil fuels
    —————————–
    Exactly.

    From the very wise Dennis Meadows, who has  a track record of supreme gravitas:

    From an interview last year:  “The notion that there is some kind of fairly attractive sustainable society ahead of us if we can only find it is now a fantasy. The global population, its use of materials, its generation of wastes have grown so far above the sustainable capacity of the planet that there is nothing ahead [viable] that the sustainable utopia people are talking about.”

    “Technology, in general, is not an independent, value-free force that comes in, looks around, sees a problem, and solves it. Technology is a value-laden tool developed and wielded by people who in most cases have their own short-term interests.”

    “A central problem of our societies – rich and poor – is that we have developed a set of institutions, expectations, and other social mechanisms fundamentally based on and dependent on the assumption of continued growth.”

    • Thanks for finding this statement. I agree that this is a very fine one.

      I would point out that there really is no way the economy can exist apart from growth. Thus, the reason we have developed the “set of institutions, expectations, and other social mechanisms fundamentally based on and dependent on the assumption of continued growth” is because this is the only way the economy works. It is growth or collapse.

      • Duncan Idaho says:

        I would point out that there really is no way the economy can exist apart from growth.

        Agree- if you are a capitalist
        (most can’t even conceive of anything else)

        • The problem has to do with diminishing returns and the need for rising, or at least level, energy consumption per capita, based on 200 years of experience. If energy consumption per capita is even level, there tends to be a lot of fighting, or collapse of a major part of the economy (Soviet Union in 1991).

          Also, humans can outcompete other species. Our population keeps growing.

          • Duncan Idaho says:

            Sure, in almost all vertical systems.
            Horizontal systems?
            Nope,
            If you don’t know what I’m talking about, it is normal.

            • I don’t see this. Taking over other companies is a horizontal way of growth.

              The big problem is resource depletion at the same time population is growing. We know that overshoot and collapse was pretty much universal, even in very old civilizations. They grew for a while, outgrew their resources, and collapsed.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Still waiting to see what an economy with no growth looks like…

              Let me summarize what is likely to happen…

              That would be a recession … which would lead to a depression if unchecked …which would then ultimately end in Collapse (violence – rape – starvation – disease – spent fuel ponds)

              There is a slight chance the everyone would bang tambourines and sing Koombaya…. before they are raped then cut in pieces and roasted for dinner

            • Herbie Ficklestein says:

              FE Gail wrote one article back in 2013!

              ← Reaching Limits in a Finite WorldOil Limits and Climate Change →
              What Would it Take to Get to a Steady State Economy?
              Posted on May 15, 2013 by Gail Tverberg
              Humans live in equilibrium with other species in a finite world. In such a world, there is never really a Steady State. Instead, there is a constant ebb and flow. For a while, one species may be dominant in an area, and then another. If populations are closely matched in “ability,” then the ups and downs aren’t too severe. If a predator depends on a particular type of prey for its dinner, it can’t eat all of the prey, or it will go hungry.

              When the populations of various species are graphed, they rise and fall. We usually think of a close match, such as depicted in this graph:

              Remember Don Stewart way back and the discussion of the Eco period of Japan???

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Dunc is going to prove you wrong!

      • Dennis L. says:

        Almost always the optimist:

        Earnest Rutherford: “Now I know what the atom looks like.” He had a view, but not the complete view.

        Economy is a construct based on what has gone before, what is before us is a mystery, we will delve, we will discover, we will use new tools as of yet unknown.

        At one time not that long ago, it was felt the universe itself would stop expanding, now it seems it continues and indeed is increasing the speed of expansion; another theory is better understood and expanded as it were.

        We really don’t understand large systems yet we posit predictions based on what is or what we think is.

        The path backwards is misery, I refuse to believe that is all there is.

        Dennis L.

        • Xabier says:

          I agree with your positive bias, Dennis: but I fear that you don’t have the faintest idea what the Bio-Digital-Military Complex has planned for us.

          Few people do.

          It is appalling, and insane, the enemy of the human qualities which you value.

    • Sven Røgeberg says:

      Thanks for the quote! Mind giving us the link to the intrerview?

  39. Tim Olsen says:

    That’s odd. Tverberg starts strong on population, then rambles about a bunch of partial-truths and conjectures, accepts the status quo systems as sacrosanct, never returns to population, and then signs off with a whimper. It seems like she’s about to close with a powerful statement, perhaps that it’s time to get serious on population, but chokes on fossil combustion fumes instead. Perhaps the effect she’s after…

    • I suppose this comment is in response to my article, as opposed to someone else’s comment.

      “I start out strong on population.” Yes, that is the way it is. Population keeps growing. I am not advocating doing anything about population, in the short time we have left. I am not certain we can do anything about population. It is too late, unless someone thinks it makes sense to kill part of today’s population, to try to save some remnant of humanity, or to “prevent climate change.” I don’t.

      I am talking about a predicament. There is a limit to how much background I can put in one post, but a predicament is not something fixable, unfortunately. There is no way I can come in at the end with a “strong conclusion.”

      The story is a sad story. There is no way that the current method of energy transition can come to a good conclusion. Maybe I should have said that, in so many words.

      I am not convinced that subsidizing fossil fuels would really be a solution that would “work” in any real sense. Renewables are still a very long ways from working. Intermittent electricity comes to a dead end very quickly. We live in a world without good solutions. This is not a popular outcome.

      • Artleads says:

        “There is no way that the current method of energy transition can come to a good conclusion. Maybe I should have said that, in so many words.”

        I’m glad you didn’t say that. I follow you fairly carefully…in my own way, and I think such a conclusion (one with which a strongly disagree) would have lowered your very high standard.

        For some of us (hard as it may be to understand) a radical step-down would be greatly preferred to the treadmill we’re on. It’s just that for a radical step-down to have a chance, the level of planning, organization, understand, thinking would need to be at a level that I see nowhere in sight.

        The major impediments are perhaps the MSM and other very stuck premises of misinformation, and the belief that technology will solve this, especially the myth of renewable energy…

        • Artleads says:

          I think I understand Duncan’s vertical vs. horizontal argument. But it’s pretty clear that human behavior is at the bottom of our supposed predicament. Almost every human on earth believes that humans come first, which is wrong.

        • MM says:

          A “cyber planned economy” would imho be an option but it will be very difficult to argue that against the WEF group.
          Check out: Participatory economy.
          Also the alt-right has positioned itself strongly against Technocracy

          • Artleads says:

            Took a brief glance at Participatory economy. But am easily discouraged by any system run by humans. Humans always come with assumptions that they don’t know they come with. These often lead to wars between differing assumptions.

            Humans unfailingly fail to note that they can’t exist without “nature.” They also unfailingly disregard how older humans coped or failed to cope with nature. I’ll call that coping issue “culture.” They are intent on destroying the guides that nature and culture ensure.

            They also need to be ruled by the very few who are clear eyed and rational. But they tend to undercut those people too.

            • MM says:

              I would not be against a supercomputing optimisation strategy (what is not AI) for demands entered by the people every year.
              We have competing demands and competing interests. That will lead to problems that can not be solved numerically (boudary problems).
              Talking about human intervention here ?…
              Do I need new shoes in may or october next year? And so on. There is a forum to discuss these problems….

              hm, very difficult but could be tried. Some people at least now know that “power” is a double sided sword.
              I hope they will never forget this again, but alas, exactly that is questionable.

            • Xabier says:

              Yes, Artleads: Nature, culture, etc, are all ‘legacies’ to be modified or demolished in their insane ‘innovative’ fervour, which they mistake for creativity, being primitive and uncultured in thought.

              They think they are becoming the masters and arbiters of life, when they haven’t the shadow of a suspicion as to what it is or can be.

              Just egoistic wreckers.

      • Student says:

        Gail, many thanks for your articles and also for these additional explanations.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      But Tim… Fast Eddy wrote the conclusion … did you miss that?

      Population was dealt with … seeing as population reduction would result in collapse of BAU — leading to Ripping Off of Faces (8B of them) — murder rape disease – spent fuel ponds…

      Instead we are getting The Injection … and we are reducing our oil burn to allow time for The Injection — to create Devil Covid —- which will solve the Population Problem….

      Oh it will solve it alright hahahaha…. are you read for The Mass Extinction of the Vile Species?

      Make good use of your remaining time Tim…

  40. StarvingLion says:

    Looks like Robson S Walton of Walmart needs to buy a boat. Or more like 5 million boats.

    Banana Republic!

    https://finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx?oc=1219112&tc=7

  41. StarvingLion says:

    The Joseph Mengele Stock MRNA is skyrocketing up 7% today. Isn’t it great?

    Got temporary body storage facilities?

    Yeah!

    • If you bought MRNA stock at the right time in 2020, its price would have increased by more than a factor of 10. Of course, Joseph Mengele is the German “angel of death.” You are speaking symbolically.

      If would be nice if the folks advocating the vaccines were also making money from their sale.

      • Duncan Idaho says:

        Hint:
        “Not all vaccine ideas work – we’re already seeing that with the current coronavirus, and if you’d like to talk to some folks about that, then I suggest you call up GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi and ask them what happened to their initial candidate, and while you’re at it, call up Merck and ask them what happened to their two. Note that I have just named three of the largest, most experienced drug companies on the planet, all of whom have come up short. ”

        BioNTech, a small German company, pulled this off.

        No company in the Middle East or Africa had a chance of pulling this off.

  42. StarvingLion says:

    The NASCRAP is SOARING!!! after the speech from the confetti spewer at the “federal” “reserve”

    I’m going down to my credit union and demanding $5000 cash every single day to stick in the Nasdaq 100. Can’t even suffer a 10% correction.

    Because otherwise all that so-called US dollah strength would be shown for what it is — FAKE.

    What are the Covidiot suicide victims at the branch gonna say? “Its gambling”…Hahahaha.

    The US $ is even more ludicrous than Bitcoin.

  43. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/air-conditioned-nightmare-182408626.html
    Our Air-Conditioned Nightmare
    Jeff Goodell
    Tue, June 22, 2021, 2:24 PM
    Heat Wave Continues in Southwest United States
    Heat is entropy. Heat is chaos. The hotter something gets, the more kinetic energy it has: molecules vibrate, relationships change, life overheats, things die.

    You can see that out west right now. Last week, a heat dome formed over the Great Plains all the way out to the California coast. Salt Lake City boiled at 107°F, the hottest temperature ever recorded there. In Las Vegas, it was more than 100 degrees at night. Phoenix hit at least 115°F five days in a row, setting a new record for the city. The health impacts of heat waves are difficult to track in real time, but public-health officials in the Phoenix area are already investigating the heat-related deaths of nine people in a single day (June 17

    Heat creates a cascading catastrophe of climate chaos. It sucks the moisture out of soil; dry land leads to less evaporation, which leads to fewer clouds and more sun, which equals more heat and evaporation. Lake Mead, the reservoir on the Arizona-Nevada border that provides drinking water to 25 million people and generates electricity for eight million more, is at its lowest point since the 1930s. With heat and drought comes fire. On the first day of summer, wildfires were burning in California, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, and Montana. Heat changes the movement of insects that carry diseases. It melts away the last of the snowpack. And in us humans, heat causes your heart to beat faster, shunting blood toward your skin, where it can be cooled as you sweat. If you get too hot too fast, your heart can’t keep up, the proteins in your body unfold, your gut leaks nasty stuff into your fast-warming blood, and if you don’t cool off quickly, you die
    But long before that, the most obvious impact of extreme heat is that it pushes people to turn on – and turn up – their air-conditioning. With cool air, you can feel the chaos within you subsiding. But it comes at a cost: AC sucks up huge amounts of electricity, which strains the grid and increases the risk of blackouts. More electricity also means burning fossil fuels, which means more CO2 pollution (President Biden has promised a 100 percent clean electricity grid by 2035, but that’s still a long way off). In addition, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), the human-made chemicals inside of air-conditioners used to cool the air, are super greenhouse gases, up to 3,000 times more potent than CO2 at trapping heat in the atmosphere. What it comes down to is this: By cooling ourselves off, we risk cooking ourselves to death.

    In fact, that’s pretty much what’s happening right now. The heatwave that is melting pavement out west is indisputably linked to the climate crisis. While the Earth as a whole has warmed up a little more than 1°C already, over land, where we all live, it has warmed up close to 2 °C. According to Michael Wehner, a senior scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, today’s heat waves are 3° to 5°F hotter than they would be without the additional warming from CO2 pollution, which largely comes from burning fossil fuels. And the more CO2 we dump into the atmosphere, the hotter it is going to get.

    And it’s pretty much a given that as the planet heats up, the demand for air-conditioning will grow fast, especially in the developing world, where air-conditioning is still a luxury that few people can afford. There are just over 1 billion single-room air conditioning units in the world right now – about one for every seven people on Earth. By 2050, there are likely to be more than 4.5 billion units, making them as common as cellphones today.

    The consequences of this are enormous. A small unit cooling a single room can consume more power than running four refrigerators. The U.S. already uses as much electricity for air conditioning each year as the UK uses in total. The International Energy Agency projects that as the rest of the world reaches similar levels, air conditioning will use about 13 percent of all electricity worldwide, and produce 2 billion tons of CO2 a year – about the same amount as India, the world’s third-largest polluter, emits today.

    The HFCs in AC units just amplify the problem. Right now, HFC emissions account for around 1 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions and as much as 3 percent in many developed countries. According to the IEA, if left unchecked, these emissions will increase to 7-19 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and offset most, if not all, mitigation actions pledged by countries to date.

    As AC use rises, so too does the risk of brownouts and blackouts. During heatwaves, the demand for power surges, putting the stability of the entire grid at risk. And when power goes out on a hot day, people die. “[In 2018] in Beijing, during a heatwave, 50 percent of the power capacity was going to air conditioning,” John Dulac, an analyst at the IEA, told the Guardian. “These are ‘oh, shit’ moments.”

    What goes around comes around….sounds like another type of feedback loop

    • Bruce Steele says:

      We had a spring heatwave where it hit 108F in June and all the barnswallow chicks cooked in their nests. It hit 120F last year but it was after the chicks had fledged and flown back south . Spring heatwaves can do a lot of damage to nesting birds. We haven’t gone over 100F yet and the barnswallows seem well ,so far.
      There are butterflies gone missing and consequences of change afoot. It is hard to ignore the Monarch butterfly crash here in Calif.
      Drought and heatwaves seem mundane inside your air conditioned house and in Calif. you can run the whole shebang on solar and batteries without worrying about blackouts, or the world at large for that matter.
      On the other hand if you have to tend livestock you have to get out of the house and spend some time in the heat . But the AC is nice to come back to. We will be digging caves soon enough.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        They had a similar problem way back in Mesopotamia some years back… but unfortunately they could not mitigate with AC (no electricity…) so they moved to a place with a more suitable klimate.

      • Xabier says:

        The rich Moghuls in India built large cellars under their townhouses – alternative houses in effect – to escape the summer heat.

        The British were very impressed by this solution, but never copied it as far as I know. In the summer they tried to go up to the mountains, just as the rich Italians used to do.

        Of course, labour was, as the first Emperor noted, both very cheap in India, and skilled.

        They were also masters of systems which caught and channelled breezes, copied from Iran.

    • Solar panels have been suggested as a way of dealing with the extra electricity needed for air conditioning in summer. The catch is that the sunlight that the solar panels absorb tends to come earlier in the day than the time the electricity is needed to operate the air conditioners. So, it is necessary to have battery power to absorb early morning sunlight to save for the late afternoon and evening when it is really needed. This would take a lot of battery storage. I would expect that it would require quite a bit more storage than is available today.

      • Bruce Steele says:

        Gail, A rather standard 5kw solar panel setup with two Tesla powerwalls can easily handle a home AC , several freezers, the pressure pump on the well and still feed excess back onto the grid. Works best here around summer solstice but you need to conserve a bit to make it work 100% solar/ battery when heatwaves can go on for several days in a row in the hot days of Sept. and October. This time of year the solar system produces >30kw and the powerwall stores 27kw. Late afternoon and evening can be handled by the batteries.
        You would need another whole solar system if you were to add an EV .
        Standard solar array and batteries means you need to own a house but the solar/battery cost is less than a new F-250. House cost is out
        of control.
        When you have most of your own food, shelter and power you don’t need to travel a whole lot . This isn’t a very good growth model, it is more of a way to live independent after you worked your whole life to put it all together.
        Mostly I got powerwalls because I couldn’t risk losing my freezers in a blackout. You lose power like everyone else with just solar but with batteries you never lose power. System would run weeks/months without grid. AC, water pumps, freezers, everything you really need.
        Two years no issues, suppose to last another eight years then still should work with reduced battery storage for a few years more.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Gawd… we’re looking at Devil Covid arriving any month now … and someone is promoting Tesla solar panels and batteries…. Gawd….

          What’s next – self driving cars hahaha

          Latest captcha… tick the boxes with trees… oooh…. it’s so hard.. I keep getting it wrong … then I asked my computer to help…. hahahahaha

          TechnoID…IOTS?

          • Dennis L. says:

            It appears 20-50% of the population has natural immunity to Covid, FE, there are too many of us, Covid will lose, life will go on.

            I posted a video regarding Tesla, they are doing incredible things at scale. Benz stated they were gong to put $1B in EV, Elon’s reply basically, that goes nowhere.

            Too many here are literally waiting for the end, every time the predicted end does not come, it is pushed back.

            You as I recall had some large shipping containers loaded with goods for the end of the world. Would you care to share how much you invested in that endeavor and what the salvage value was when things did not all fail?

            Doomer planning has been a loser forever. I have sat next to Dennis Meadows, been fortunate to chat with him, might I suggest he assumes all distributions are somewhat uniform? What is happening in the world seems not to be uniform, trick is to be in the correct tail.

            Dennis L.

            • Xabier says:

              It is not ‘Covid’ we have to fear, but the triumph of the makers of the ‘Pandemic’……

              They intend to work out their fantasies on our lives, in our minds, and within our bodies.

        • Of course, your approach only works in those parts of the world where there is enough sunlight to make it work. It wouldn’t work in the UK or Germany, for example. Your approach is one that might work in California, Arizona and Hawaii, I would guess.

          A family would need to be pretty wealthy to afford a standard 5kw solar panel setup with two Tesla powerwalls for their air conditioning, plus another similar system to power its vehicle, plus a home to house all of this stuff.

          By the way, it is the electric grid that doesn’t have the huge quantity of batteries needed to store its electricity from morning to night. Homeowners might indeed buy them.

          Of course, it would be nice to have a job, in order to pay for all of the solar panels, inverters, and power walls, as well as replacements when needed. A person’s job would require a great deal of electricity (and other energy) as well. The job would likely be the main reason a person needs a vehicle. People tend to forget that home electricity is only small part of total energy use.

          A person would really need to look at worldwide energy use, to see what fraction personal energy use is of total energy use. China is the biggest manufacturer of goods worldwide. Personal energy use in China is only a small fraction of its energy consumption, 10% is one number I remember from long ago. I would guess that in most countries, personal energy use is perhaps 25% of total energy use. All of the trucks and commercial buildings require a lot of energy consumption, for example.

          In most of the world, heating is a much bigger issue than air conditioning. The need for heat comes precisely when solar energy is least–in the winter. Some other approach than solar is needed in most places in the world.

          • Bruce Steele says:

            No argument on your points, but in some places existing technology can provide reliable 24/7 home electricity. Not as expensive as it seems.
            Also possible to grow a few hundred pounds of field corn, potatoes and wheat without heavy machinery but again ain’t gonna work for everybody and most people just not into working that hard. And the people who can afford house, solar and batteries less likely to be very good at the end of a hoe.
            But what does feed , shelter and power one farm might work on several and with an excess of food produced might feed a small town. Worked in Mesopotamia for awhile .We ain’t gonna know until somebody makes it work. Talking about sustainability and pulling it off are two separate things.
            Richard Heinberg has an article about the greatest planning failure in history. The failure is any attempt getting even one small group of people to “prove up” .
            No frickin plan !
            Like I said earlier I don’t want to lose my freezers in a blackout. That alone is worth the cost of solar. I get the feeling maintaining everything is going to get to be very expensive. The grid usually works but what happens to the grid if copper, aluminum and transformers get way more expensive? We are going to see inflation in systematic failures of what has always been dependable.

            • Xabier says:

              In the light of the coming, obviously planned, Cyber attacks, I’m running the freezer contents down to minimise losses.

              They will make them hard and deep so as to justify the new code of online ‘security’.

              They will come in the winter so as to be as painful as possible, and to kill.

              Once one understands the game plan of the psychopaths, one is ahead – just a little…..

          • Fast Eddy says:

            https://youtu.be/Zk11vI-7czE

            This explodes the ‘renewable’ energy hoax… green groopies won’t watch it

          • Dennis L. says:

            Build it yourself, a chunk at a time. I have done this for years, it works, honest, after tax income.

            There is a large group of people who are making a life, one sees some them at Menard’s, many times it is a couple, maybe a scruffy, male in work clothes and a wife and child chasing behind. They are literally getting the job done.

            Work part time at one of these stores, forget about sleep, it is vastly over rated and when older, you will get more well deserved rest.

            Some of you must be farmers: the weather is too hot, the weather is too cold, there is too much rain, it is never going to rain again and at worst case a country western song plays in the background, “You picked a fine time to leave me Lucile.”

            Life is not easy, but there are eight billion of us here and some are doing very well indeed and not all are Elon Musk. Plumbing sucks, it is a $100k/year job, join a union and there is a pension.

            Move up, send your kids to a cc, especially if they are in high school – the brightest kids in calc were high school students, home schooled no less.

            How the heck did my parents ever live with a 60 amp service? How did my grandmother live in her apartment in the same house with a 30 amp service? Damn, it must have been a miserable, horrible life.

            The US is overflowing with opportunity, empirically hundreds of thousands are walking north to be part of it.

            Dennis L.

        • Dennis L. says:

          Nice going, well thought out, nice comment regarding the cost of an F250. Mostly it seems cheaper to have things delivered or rent compared to the cost of a capable truck.

          Dennis L>

      • Dennis L. says:

        Freeze water, release A/C heat into the frozen block of water, other than conduction loss, no energy loss for storage.

        Dennis L.

        • Bruce Steele says:

          Dennis L. Will try the ice block idea to use noontime solar rather than feed it back unto the grid. The freezers are a critical link in my small hog operation and an old F-250 7.3 without turbos can haul tons and tons of gleaned feed. Ran it on homemade biodiesel from rendered lard for awhile but I also needed a new injector pump for my efforts. In a pinch I could get by without a gas station but it is easier to use current fuel system.
          “ Build it yourself, one chunk at a time”

  44. Yoshua says:

    The ECB has pumped in €3T since 2020 and the balance sheet now equals ~80% of eurozone’s GDP.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E4gAdwwXoAQudPx?format=png&name=large

  45. VFatalis says:

    The Elders are probably anticipating a massive die-off this autumn with temporary body storage facilities: https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2021/W23/752550337
    Hot summer upon us… Then farewell qBAU

    • Very Far Frank says:

      Good find. The tender runs for a 4 year period till mid June 2025, so maybe that’s the expected end to Covid madness before we’re assailed with the next crisis.

      Alien invasion perhaps?

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      cool. The “by early summer” prediction of a deadly wave in Israel has not appeared yet, but maybe it still will happen. If not, this one “this autumn” will be eagerly anticipated. Though it might be a big nothingburger, since it sounds too good to be true.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Great – I won’t have the mow the lawn!

  46. Sam says:

    https://youtu.be/KpqaDv2RYdU

    I thought this is a good debate on the current monetary system and where it is heade

    • Sam says:

      Why?

    • Sam says:

      Here it is again https://youtu.be/KpqaDv2RYdU

    • The video is an hour and 17 minutes long, and the sound quality is very substandard.

      On the plus side, the panel of speakers is interesting.

      I didn’t get very far through the video, I am afraid. At least at the beginning, quite a bit of it is about bitcoin. If bitcoin is a dead end (for many reasons), my interest in watching the presentation goes down. Just because someone used energy making bitcoin doesn’t mean it has any future value, as far as I can see.

      Maybe someone else can fill us in on some of the later things these folks say, if it is not just about bitcoin.

      • Dennis L. says:

        Guess on bitcoin.

        Dunbar’s number seems to limit our circle of trust, cryptos are an attempt to introduce honest accounting into the system seemingly by making so many copies it is impossible to forge any one of them and be believed.

        Crypto may be more important in contracts, it is possibly disliked by governments as it makes lying very difficult. The issue is poor education which limits people’s ability to understand numbers, what works and causes charismatic leaders to rise – some good, some not so good.

        Bernay was not our friend.

        Dennis L.

  47. StarvingLion says:

    Mikey just said productivity in the last oil dreg called Permian has been dropping since 2016. I told an 80 year old dumb chick about it and she responded: “Oil is everywhere”

    Mike Shellman
    Ignored
    06/22/2021 at 11:10 am

    Not true, as this person actually operating HZ tight oil wells in the Permian would know, of course. When normalized for lateral lengths and proppant loading per perforated foot well productivity in the Permian has been falling since 2016.

    • Duncan Idaho says:

      The Permian is the US’s last chance.
      Alaska is crashing, the Gulf a real challenge, and the Bakken and Eagle Ford, are over the top.
      CA and a few other places add, but not much.

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