2022: Energy limits are likely to push the world economy into recession

In my view, there are three ways a growing economy can be sustained:

  1. With a growing supply of cheap-to-produce energy products, matched to the economy’s energy needs.
  2. With growing debt and other indirect promises of future goods and services, such as rising asset prices.
  3. With growing complexity, such as greater mechanization of processes and supply lines that extend around the world.

All three of these approaches are reaching limits. The empty shelves some of us have been seeing recently are testimony to the fact that complexity is reaching a limit. And the growth in debt looks increasingly like a bubble that can easily be popped, perhaps by rising interest rates.

In my view, the first item listed is critical at this time: Is the supply of cheap-to-produce energy products growing fast enough to keep the world economy operating and the debt bubble inflated? My analysis suggests that it is not. There are two parts to this problem:

[a] The cost of producing fossil fuels and delivering them to where they are needed is rising rapidly because of the effects of depletion. This higher cost cannot be passed on to customers, without causing recession. Politicians will act to keep prices low for the benefit of consumers. Ultimately, these low prices will lead to falling production because of inadequate reinvestment to offset depletion.

[b] Non-fossil fuel energy products are not living up to the expectations of their developers. They are not available when they are needed, where they are needed, at a low enough cost for customers. Electricity prices don’t rise high enough to cover their true cost of production. Subsidies for wind and solar tend to drive nuclear electricity out of business, leaving an electricity situation that is worse, rather than better. Rolling blackouts can be expected to become an increasing problem.

In this post, I will explore the energy-related issues that are contributing to the recessionary trends that the world economy is facing, starting later in 2022.

[1] World oil supplies are unlikely to rise very rapidly in 2022 because of depletion and inadequate reinvestment. Even if oil prices rise higher in the first part of 2022, this action cannot offset years of underinvestment.

Figure 1. Crude oil and liquids production quantities through 2020 based on EIA data. “IEA Estimate” adds IEA indicated increases in 2021 and 2022 to historical EIA liquids estimates. Tverberg Estimate relates to crude oil production.

The IEA, in its Oil Market Report, December 2021, forecasts a 6.4-million-barrel increase in world oil production in 2022 over 2021. Indications through September of 2021 strongly suggest that there was only a small rebound (about 1 million bpd) in the world’s oil production in 2021 compared to 2020. In my view, the IEA’s view that liquids production will increase by a huge 6.4 million barrels a day between 2021 and 2022 defies common sense.

The basic reason why oil production is low is because oil prices have been too low for producers since about 2012. Companies have had to cut back on developing new fields in higher cost areas because oil prices have not been high enough to justify such investments. For example, producers from shale formations could add new wells outside the rapidly depleting “core” regions if the oil price were much higher, perhaps $120 to $150 per barrel. But US WTI oil prices averaged only $57 per barrel in 2019, $39 per barrel in 2020, and $68 per barrel in 2021, so this new investment has not been started.

Recently, oil prices have been over $80 per barrel, but even this is considered too high by politicians. For example, countries are releasing oil from their strategic oil reserves to try to force oil prices down. The reason why politicians are interested in low oil prices is because if the price of oil rises, both the price of food and the cost of commuting are likely to rise, since oil is used in farming and in commuting. Inflation is likely to become a problem, making citizens unhappy. Wages will go less far, and politicians who allow high oil prices will be voted out of office.

[2] Natural gas production can be expected to rise by 1.6% in 2022, but this small increase will not be enough to meet the needs of the world economy.

Figure 2. Natural gas production though 2020 based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. For 2020 and 2021, Tverberg estimates reflect increases similar to IEA indications, so only one indication is shown.

With natural gas production growing at a little less than 2% per year, a major issue is that there is not enough natural gas to “go around.” Natural gas is the smallest of the fossil fuels in quantity. We are depending on its growth to solve many problems, simultaneously:

  • To increase natural gas imports for countries whose own production is declining
  • To provide quick relief from inadequate production by wind turbines and solar panels, whenever such relief is needed
  • To offset declining coal consumption related to a combination of issues (depletion, high pollution, climate change concerns)
  • To help increase world electricity supply, as transportation and other processes are gradually electrified

Furthermore, the rate at which natural gas supply increases cannot easily be speeded up because (a) the development of new fields, (b) the development of transportation structures (pipeline or Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) ships), and (c) the development of storage facilities all require major upfront expenditures. All of these must be planned years in advance. They require huge amounts of resources of many kinds. The selling price of natural gas must be high enough to cover all of the resource and labor costs. For those familiar with the concept of Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI), the basic problem is that the delivered EROEI falls too low when all of the many parts of the system are considered.

Storage is extremely important for natural gas because fluctuations tend to occur in the quantity of natural gas the overall system requires. For example, if stored natural gas is available, it can be used when wind turbines are not producing enough electricity. Also, a huge amount of energy is needed in winter to keep homes warm and to keep the lights on. If sufficient natural gas can be stored for months at a time, it can help provide this additional energy.

As a gas, natural gas is difficult to store. In practice, underground caverns are used for storage, assuming caverns of the right type are available. Trying to build storage, if such caverns are not available, is almost certainly an expensive undertaking. In theory, importing natural gas by pipeline or LNG can transfer the storage problem to LNG producers. This is not a satisfactory solution, however. Without adequate storage available to sellers, this means that natural gas can be extracted for only part of the year and LNG ships can only be used for part of the year. As a result, return on investment is likely to be poor.

Now, in 2022, we are hitting the issue of very slowly rising natural gas production head-on in many parts of the world. Countries that import natural gas without long-term contracts are facing spiking prices. Countries in Europe and Asia are especially affected. The United States has mostly been isolated from the spiking prices thanks to producing its own natural gas. Also, only a small portion of the natural gas produced by the US is exported (9% in 2020).

The reason for the small export percentage is because shipping natural gas as LNG tends to be very expensive. Long-distance LNG shipping only makes economic sense if there is a several dollar (or more) price differential between the buyer’s price and the seller’s costs that can be used to cover the high transport costs.

We now seem to be reaching a period of spiking natural gas prices, especially for countries importing natural gas without long-term contracts. If natural gas prices rise, this will tend to make electricity prices rise because natural gas is often burned to produce electricity. Products made with high-priced electricity will be less competitive in a world market. Individual citizens will become unhappy with their high cost of heat and light.

High natural gas prices can have very adverse consequences. In areas with high prices, products made using natural gas as a raw material will tend to be squeezed out. One such product is urea, used as a nitrogen fertilizer. With less nitrogen fertilizer available, food production is likely to fall. If food prices rise in response to short supply, consumers will tend to reduce discretionary spending to ensure that there are sufficient funds for food. A reduction in discretionary spending is one way recession starts.

Inadequate growth in world natural gas production can be expected to hit poor countries especially hard. For example, a recent article mentions LNG suppliers backing out of planned deliveries of LNG to Pakistan, given the high prices available elsewhere. Another article indicates that Kosovo, a poor country in Europe, is experiencing rolling blackouts. Eventually, if natural gas available for export remains limited in supply, electricity blackouts can be expected to spread more widely, to less poor parts of Europe and around the world.

[3] World coal production can be expected to decline, further pushing the world economy toward recession.

Figure 3 shows my estimate for world coal production, next to a recent IEA forecast.

Figure 3. Coal production through 2020 based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. “IEA Estimate” adds IEA indicated increases to historical BP coal quantities. Tverberg Estimate provides lower estimates for 2021 and 2022, considering depletion issues.

Figure 3 shows that world coal consumption has not been rising for about a decade.

Coal seems to be having the same problem with rising costs as oil. The cost of producing the coal is rising because of depletion, but citizens cannot afford to pay more for end products made with coal, such as electricity, steel and solar panels. Coal producers need higher prices to cover their higher costs, but it becomes increasingly difficult to pass these higher costs on to consumers. This is because politicians want to keep electricity prices low to keep their citizens and businesses happy.

If the cost of electricity rises, the cost of goods made with high-priced electricity will tend to rise. Businesses will find their sales falling in response to higher prices. In turn, they will tend to lay off workers. This is a recipe for recession, but a slightly different one than the ones mentioned earlier. It also is a good way for politicians not to get re-elected. As a result, politicians will try to hide rising coal costs from customers. For example, laws may be enacted capping electricity prices that can be charged to customers. Because of this, some electricity companies may be forced out of business.

The decrease in coal production I am showing for 2022 is only 1%, but when this small reduction is combined with the growth problems shown for coal and oil and the rising world population, it means that world coal supplies will be stretched.

China is the world’s largest coal producer and consumer. A major concern is that the country has serious coal depletion problems. It has experienced rolling blackouts since the fall of 2020. It has tried to encourage its own production by limiting coal imports, thus keeping wholesale coal prices high for local producers. It also limits the extent to which high coal costs can be passed on to electricity customers. As a result, the 2021 profits of electricity companies are expected to be reduced.

[4] The US may have some untapped coal resources that could be tapped, if there is a plan to ship more natural gas to Europe and other areas in need of the fuel.

The possibility of additional US coal production occurs because coal production in the US seems to have occurred because of competition from incredibly inexpensive natural gas (Figure 4). To some extent, this low natural gas price results from laws prohibiting oil and gas companies from “flaring” (burning off) natural gas that is too expensive to produce relative to the price it can be sold for. Prohibitions against flaring are a type of mandated subsidy of natural gas production by the oil-producing portion of “Oil & Gas” companies. This required subsidy leads to part of the need for high oil prices, especially for companies drilling in shale formations.

Figure 4. US coal production amounts through 2020 are from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. Amounts for 2021 and 2022 are estimated based on forecasts from EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook. Natural gas prices are average annual Henry Hub spot prices per million Btus, based on EIA data.

A major reason why US coal extraction started to decline about 2009 is because a very large amount of shale gas production started becoming available then as a byproduct of oil production from shale. Oil producers were primarily interested in extracting oil because it (hopefully) sold for a high price. Natural gas was a byproduct whose collection was barely economic, given its low selling price. Also, the economy didn’t have uses, such as trucks powered by natural gas, for all of this extra natural gas production. Figure 4 suggests that wholesale natural gas prices dropped by close to half, in response to this extra supply.

With these low natural gas prices, as well as coal pollution concerns, a significant amount of US electricity production was switched from coal to natural gas. It is my view that this change left coal in the ground, potentially for later use. Thus, if natural gas prices rise again, US coal production could perhaps rise again. The catch, of course, is that many coal-fired electricity-generating plants in the US have been taken out of service. In addition, coal mines have been closed. Any increase in future coal production would likely take place very slowly because of the need for many simultaneous changes.

[5] On a combined basis, using Tverberg Estimates for 2021 and 2022, fossil fuel production in total takes a step down in 2020 and doesn’t rise much in 2021 and 2022.

Figure 5. Sum of Tverberg Estimates related to oil, coal, and natural gas. Oil includes natural gas liquids but not biofuels. Historical amounts are from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Figure 5 shows that on a combined basis, the overall energy being provided by fossil fuels is likely to remain lower in 2021 and 2022 than it was in 2018 and 2019. This is concerning, because the economy cannot go back to its 2019 level of “openness” and optional travel for sightseers, without a big step up in energy supply, especially for oil.

This same figure shows that the production of the three fossil fuels is somewhat similar in quantity: Oil is the highest, coal is second, and natural gas comes in third. However, oil shows a step down in 2020’s production from which it has not recovered. Coal shows a smoother pattern of rise and eventual fall. So far, natural gas has mostly been rising, but not very steeply in recent years.

[6] Alternatives to fossil fuels are not living up to early expectations. Electricity from wind turbines and solar panels is not available when it is needed, requiring a great deal of back-up electricity generated by fossil fuels or nuclear. The total quantity of non-fossil fuel electricity is far too low. A transition now will simply lead to electricity blackouts and recession.

Figure 6 shows a summary of non-fossil fuel energy production for the years 2000 through 2020, without a projection to 2022. For clarification, wind and solar are part of the electrical renewables category.

Figure 6. World energy production for various categories, based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Figure 6 shows that nuclear electricity production has been declining at the same time that the production of electrical renewables has been increasing. In fact, a significant decrease in nuclear electricity is planned in Europe in 2022. This reduction in nuclear electricity is part of what is causing the concern about electricity supply for Europe for 2022.

The addition of wind and solar to an electrical grid seems to encourage the closure of nuclear electricity plants, even if they have many years of safe production still ahead of them. This happens because wind and solar are given the subsidy of “going first,” if they happen to have electricity available. Wind and solar may also be subsidized in other ways.

The net result of this arrangement is that wholesale electricity prices set through competitive markets quite frequently fall too low for other electricity producers (apart from wind and solar). For example, wind and solar electricity that is produced during weekends may be unneeded because many businesses are closed. Electricity produced by wind and solar in the spring and fall may be unneeded because heating and cooling needs tend to be low at these times of the year. Wind and solar electricity providers are not asked to cut back supply because their production is unneeded; instead, low (or negative) prices encourage other electricity producers to cut back supply.

Nuclear electricity producers are particularly adversely affected by this pricing arrangement because they cannot save money by cutting back their output when wind and solar are over-producing electricity, relative to demand. This strange pricing arrangement leads to unacceptably low profits for many nuclear electricity providers. They may voluntarily choose to be closed. Local governments find that if they want to keep their nuclear electricity producers, they need to subsidize them.

Wind and solar, with their subsidies, tend to look more profitable to investors, even though they cannot support the economy without a substantial amount of supplementary electricity production from other electricity providers, which, perversely, they are driving out of business through their subsidized pricing structure.

The fact that wind and solar cannot be depended upon has become increasingly obvious in recent months, as coal, natural gas and electricity prices have spiked in Europe because of low wind production. In theory, coal and natural gas imports should make up the shortfall, at a reasonable price. But total volumes available for import have not been increasing in the quantities that consumers need them to increase. And, as mentioned above, nuclear electricity production is increasingly unavailable as well.

[7] The total quantity of non-fossil fuel energy supplies is not very large, relative to the quantity of fossil fuel energy. Even if these non-fossil fuel energy supplies increase at a trend rate similar to that in the recent past, they do not make up for the projected fossil fuel production deficit.

Figure 7. Total energy production, based on the fossil fuel estimates in Figure 5 together with non-fossil fuels in Figure 6.

With respect to anticipated future non-fossil fuel electricity generation, one issue is how much nuclear is being shut off. I would imagine these current closure schedules could change, if countries become aware that they may be facing rolling blackouts without nuclear.

A second issue is the growing awareness that renewables don’t really work as intended. Why add more if they don’t really work?

A third issue is new studies suggesting that prices being paid for locally generated electricity may be too generous. Based on such an analysis, California is proposing a major reduction to its payments for renewable-generated electricity, starting July 1, 2022. This type of change could reduce new installations of solar panels on homes in California. Other locations may decide to make similar changes.

I have shown two estimates of future non-fossil fuel energy supply in Figure 7. The high estimate reflects a 4.5% annual increase in the total supply, in line with recent past increases for the group in total. The lower one assumes that 2021 production is similar to that in 2020 (because of more nuclear being closed, for example). Production for 2022 represents a 5% decrease from 2021’s production.

Regardless of which assumption is made, growth in non-fossil fuel electricity supply is not very important in the overall total. The world economy is still mostly powered by fossil fuels. The share of non-fossil fuels relative to total energy ranges from 16% to 18% in 2020, based on my low and high estimates.

[8] The energy narrative we are being told is mostly the narrative that politicians would like us to believe, rather than the narrative that historians and physicists would develop.

Politicians would like us to believe that we live in a world of everlasting economic growth and that the only thing we should fear is climate change. They base their analyses on models by economists who seem to think that an “invisible hand” will fix all problems. The economy can always grow; enough fossil fuels and other resources will always be available. Governments seem to be able to print money; somehow, this money will be transformed into physical goods and services. With these assumptions, the only problems are distant ones that central banks and carbon taxes can handle.

The realists are historians and physicists. They tell us that a huge number of past economies have collapsed when their populations attempted to grow at the same time that their resource bases were depleting. These realists tell us that there is a high probability that our current economy will eventually collapse, as well.

Figure 8. The Seneca Cliff by Ugo Bardi

The general shape that economic growth is likely to take is that of a “Seneca Curve” or “Seneca Cliff.” In the words of Lucius Annaeus Seneca in the first century CE, “Increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid.” If we think of the amount graphed as the total quantity of goods and services received by citizens, the amount tends to rise slowly, gradually plateaus and then falls.

We now seem to be encountering lower energy supply while population continues to rise. It takes energy for any activity that we think of as contributing to GDP to occur. We should not be surprised if we are at the edge of a recession. If we cannot get our energy problems solved, the downturn could be very long-lasting.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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4,903 Responses to 2022: Energy limits are likely to push the world economy into recession

  1. Fast Eddy says:

    mark terrell10 hr agoLiked by Mark Oshinskie
    Here in Canada the print media has suddenly intensified it’s campaign in support of vaxxing and vax mandates. When I read it the sensation is like being transported back in time to the dark days of Il Popolo d’Italia and the like (fascist newspaper).

    DebMG10 hr ago
    Gov’t of Ontario has been pushing extra hard, especially the past 2 days; it’s unrelenting and creepy as hell.

    ”Kitten’s Secret Garden”
    Writes ”Kitten’s Secret Garden” ·10 hr agoLiked by Mark Oshinskie
    and still running the ads to inject the kids.

    https://markoshinskie8de.substack.com/p/ending-the-scamdemic-with-a-scam

  2. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Has a New “Xi’an City” COVID Variant with Ebola-like Symptoms Escaped China?
    https://europeanconservative.com/articles/commentary/has-a-new-chinese-xian-city-covid-variant-with-ebola-like-symptoms-escaped-china/

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Hopefully!

      Xian is a shit place… went there to see the warriors… otherwise it’s terrible… the kinda place a nasty disease would emerge

      But not as shit as Cuba

  3. Rocky says:

    It only takes 1% or so deviation between supply and demand in oil prices to swing them up or down. Prices today show there is little margin on global production.

    Why?

    Since 2015 many producers around the world significantly reduced exploration resulting in a massive future undersupply while all the DUC wells have been exhausted. I stated that here years ago, and what would be coming.

    Meanwhile there are proven tcf’s of gas in Canada alone, plenty to go around, but why the heck should they produce when their best friend south of the border keeps hooping distribution? Same with oil. There is no shortage of supply.

    Just like COVID, politics and big banks are killing energy supply.

    The Seneca cliff will hit those who don’t have their own production. War may be likely.

    When Brandon is gone soon this year like before Q3, and his lil sis takes over, the financial system will be collapsed…

  4. Fast Eddy says:

    hey mike — do we go australia soon? you know – high vax rates = high covid infections hospitalizations and deaths

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-omicron-outbreak-second-auckland-airport-worker-tests-positive-palmerston-north-case-has-omicron-9-new-cases-in-nelson/CUEF6MPAFMCCR6MJM2T4TRWCK4/

    Are you old and fat mike? maybe a touch of diabetes… hide away mike … hide away….

    BTW – I went all the way to Cromwell today to get some seedlings… they had a few things I wanted but still the shelves were maybe half of normal… I saw some old hag in a wheelchair being wheeled by other old hangs across the parking lot – all had masks on … I felt like running them down in my ute… just for fun!!!

    I don’t understand these old busted disease bags… they look like corpses… why don’t they just take the mask off and invite covid in … they are better off dead… imagine how much that wheel chair cost the tax payers…+ the endless trips to the doc — for what? so she can live in misery and be wheeled around with a mask on till she implodes…

  5. Fast Eddy says:

    Unboostered Brits Infected and Dying at Higher Rates than Unvaccinated

    https://eugyppius.substack.com/p/unboostered-brits-infected-and-dying

  6. Fast Eddy says:

    Queen Hotchibobo6 hr ago

    My son’s friend came down with Covid within 2 days of his vax. Within a couple more he was in the hospital and within 2 weeks, he was dead. The doctor said it was like Covid on steriods. Unstoppable.

    He was considered an unvaxxed death. That’s when I knew the stats were lies.

    Pthalocyanine
    6 hr ago
    I’m actually crying right now. I think it’s finally all coming into view.

    YES – someone understands that this is EXTINCTION

    MiFly6 hr ago
    Mr Gato, do you think it should be considered medical malpractice for a pedicatrician to rec covid shots to health 5-11 or 11-17 year olds? I do. Im a eye doc and I’ve run afoul of a few referring pediatricians b/c people have asked my opinion and i’ve said i think its wrong and inappropriate to push these vaxxes like this on healthy kids. Some of the peds docs have threatening to stop referring me patients and my partners were upset. We docs are stuck in these situations where we have all the wrong incentives and are so worried about loss of jobs, income , status and reputation. its so depressing. Everyone is afraid and everyone just tows the line.

    29Reply

    https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/alberta-gets-caught-palming-cards/comments

    • Halfvard says:

      Mike doesn’t care what that Doctor said since he wrote “tows the line” instead of the correct “toes the line”.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        What was it mike said about doing what he’s told to get around???? Anyone remember?

        • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

          “… there is no harm in getting vaccinated in order to fit in with the governmental views and be able to get around more easily than the unvaccinated.”

          too bad that the vaccines now have NEGATIVE efficacy!

          especially against omicron, so trust the Science.

          hello NZ, here comes omicron.

          too bad.

  7. This is an interesting 15 minute video about mining of rare earth minerals and processing in China, and recent changes being made.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fodsiDl6d44

    China’s rare-earth monopoly: New state-owned giant is set, the huge price paid and facing challenges

    I get the impression from the video that China is running into peak mining of rare earth minerals within China. It needs to import an increasing amount of rare earths from elsewhere for processing.

    Further, China cannot get a good enough price on the processed rare earths that is sells. This sounds like a typical “peak” problem.

    Consolidation sounds like a way that China thinks it can make money now on its processing of rare earths. Shake down the rest of the world for a higher price. (I probably need to listen to the video again to get more details.)

    China’s financial situation is troubled right now, with all of its problems with builders. This adds to its problems.

    • Rodster says:

      Chris Martenson has discussed peak rare earth minerals in China on several occasions. He brought up the topic when the topic regarding EV came up and how it’s pure fallacy thinking that the world will be able to switch to Electric Vehicles in the near future. He said there are not enough rare earth minerals to produce a fraction of the batteries needed for EV transportation.

  8. Michael Le Merchant says:
  9. Fast Eddy says:

    alberta gets caught palming cards on covid vaccine efficacy

    https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/alberta-gets-caught-palming-cards

  10. Fast Eddy says:

    ‘Killer’ immune cells still recognize Omicron variant…. oh really?

    https://www.voiceforscienceandsolidarity.org/scientific-blog/killer-immune-cells-still-recognize-omicron-variant-oh-really

  11. Fast Eddy says:

    UK: Boosters INVITE Covid and Fueled the Pandemic

    Boosted people get Covid at TWICE the rates

    https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/uk-boosters-invite-covid-and-fueled

  12. Fast Eddy says:

    92.8% of people aged 16 and over are double vaccinated

    https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/numbers-statistics

    See the daily death graph https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/

    91.66% of daily Covid deaths in the vaccinated

    https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=648069089844624&extid=WA-UNK-UNK-UNK-AN_GK0T-GK1C&ref=sharing

    nooooorrrrmmmmmm!!! Wazzz going on in these highly vaxxed countries????

  13. Mirror on the wall says:

    A new paper speculates on why human brains have shrunk since the end of the last Ice Age. Cultural factors have long been proposed, and the Neolithic farming revolution has been suggested as a context in which humans may have needed less brain power to survive.

    The present paper suggests a more recent shrinkage, in the past 3000 years, and that it was due to the reliance on social cooperation and the division of social tasks, which is corroborated by the study of ant societies and brains.

    It may be that social complexity shrinks the brain. The proposed underlying reason is energetic, as the brain is energy heavy and it can make sense to shrink it when social forms allow.

    http://www.sci-news.com/othersciences/anthropology/human-brain-size-10198.html

    > Human Brains Decreased in Size 3,000 Years Ago, New Study Says

    Human brain size nearly quadrupled in 6 million years since Homo last shared a common ancestor with chimpanzees, but human brains are thought to have decreased in volume since the end of the latest Ice Age; the timing and reason for this decrease is enigmatic. Using change-point analysis, a team of researchers from Dartmouth College and elsewhere has estimated the timing of changes in the rate of hominin brain evolution. The authors have found that hominin brains experienced positive rate changes at 2.1 and 1.5 million years ago, coincident with the early evolution of Homo and technological innovations evident in the archeological record; but they’ve also found that human brain size reduction was surprisingly recent, occurring in the last 3,000 years.

    …. To disentangle this mystery, Dr. DeSilva and colleagues set out to study the historical patterns of human brain evolution, comparing their findings with what is known in ant societies to offer broad insights.

    …. “The reduction in human brain size 3,000 years ago was unexpected.” The timing of size increase coincides with what is previously known about the early evolution of Homo and the technical advancements that led to, for example, better diet and nutrition and larger social groups.

    As for the decrease in brain size, the team proposes a new hypothesis, finding clues within ant societies. “We propose that ants can provide diverse models to understand why brains may increase or decrease in size due to social life,” Dr. Traniello said. “Understanding why brains increase or decrease is difficult to study using only fossils.”

    The scientists studied computational models and patterns of worker ant brain size, structure, and energy use in some ant clades, such as the Oecophylla weaver ant, Atta leafcutter ants, or the common garden ant Formica. Their results show that group-level cognition and division of labor may select for adaptive brain size variation.

    This means that within a social group where knowledge is shared or individuals are specialists at certain tasks, brains may adapt to become more efficient, such as decreasing in size.

    “Ant and human societies are very different and have taken different routes in social evolution,” Dr. Traniello said. “Nevertheless, ants also share with humans important aspects of social life such as group decision-making and division of labor, as well as the production of their own food (agriculture). These similarities can broadly inform us of the factors that may influence changes in human brain size.”

    Brains use up a lot of energy, and smaller brains use less energy. The externalization of knowledge in human societies, thus needing less energy to store a lot of information as individuals, may have favored a decrease in brain size.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      All unused biological traits are eventually phased out, and it has been proposed that energetically costly traits generally tend to be removed quicker, especially as simple genetic changes can have a profound effect on the functionality of organs. So it would be congruent for the highly energetically costly human brain to shrink when social complexity takes up the slack.

      There may even be evolutionary reasons for a correlation of individualism with higher intelligence, and of social conformity with lower intelligence, if human brains are genetically structured for lower intelligence in socially cooperative persons. Nietzsche certainly conceived future evolution as coming through the ‘outsiders’ and non-conformists rather than the ‘herd’, though that has its role.

      > Evolutionary Fate Of ‘Useless’ Traits: Why Some Traits Break Down Quickly While Others Persist Over Time

      What happens when traits no longer give creatures a competitive edge?

      Some subterranean animals that live in darkness function perfectly well without eyesight, for example. And the tiny leg bones buried in the backs of whales — left over from their land-dwelling ancestors — don’t get much action in the ocean.

      In a recent review, researchers teamed up to take a closer look at the evolutionary fate of useless traits. Supported by the National Evolutionary Synthesis Center (NESCent) in Durham, NC, their aim was to examine what happens to traits that are no longer needed. “Just about everybody who thinks about trait evolution focuses on traits that are beneficial,” writes first author David Lahti, a biologist at Queens College. “But few people think about traits that are useless, or that are becoming less useful over time.”

      For example, the ability to recognize and flee from enemies becomes less critical in predator-free habitats. “There are many examples of animals that were once subject to predation, but have since been introduced to areas where predators are absent or have been killed off,” Lahti says. In these cases, studies show that traits which were once key to survival – vigilance, caution, speed and agility – start to erode over time. “Things like alertness, having to run fast, having to fly — many predator avoidance traits end up being useless to those animals,” Lahti says.

      Under an evolutionary phenomenon called relaxed selection, traits that were advantageous in one time and place become obsolete in another. Traits that aren’t actively maintained by natural selection tend to become smaller or less functional over time, studies suggest. The researchers wanted to know why some traits break down quickly, while others take longer to go away. “All traits will eventually disappear if they have no function,” Lahti explains. “The question we’re asking now is: how do you know how fast that will happen?”

      To answer this question, the researchers scoured the literature for examples of relaxed selection. After reviewing more than 80 studies spanning nearly 150 years of research, they pinpointed several factors that determine how quickly traits are lost. “Numerous cases of trait loss illustrate that evolution isn’t necessarily progressive,” says co-author Norman Johnson of the University of Massachusetts. “It seems that not all the same evolutionary rules are followed when you’re losing a trait as when you’re gaining it,” Lahti adds.

      Traits that are energetically expensive to develop or maintain tend to be phased out more quickly, they found. The threespine stickleback, for instance, is a little fish that evolved body armor to help protect itself from predators. Sticklebacks require a lot of energy and minerals to build armor, Lahti explains. When these fish are introduced to predator-free lakes where their bony plates aren’t needed anymore, individuals that avoid wasting valuable energy on useless armor fare better over time. The result? Populations that are safe from predators lose their armor over the generations. “The biggest reason why a trait goes away quickly is because it’s costly,” Lahti says.

      Rapid trait loss is also more likely when it involves relatively simple genetic changes, studies reveal. For example, many cave-dwelling creatures such as crickets and cavefish lose their eyesight as they adapt to life in the dark. “Until very recently, we didn’t know anything about the genetics or development of eyes in cave fish,” Lahti explains. “People assumed it happened in successive small steps, over a long period of time.” But recent research on the genetics of eye development in these animals suggests that a small number of genes play a big role in blindness. “Until modern genetic techniques we never would have guessed that these big changes in the eyes could happen by such minor genetic changes,” Lahti says….

    • drb says:

      What???? human brain size decreased due to transitioning from a carnivore diet, to a mixed diet with lesser animal foods, such as fish and rabbits, then to an agricultural diet, which was initially piss poor and has remained poor to this day. Much less sialic acid, arachidonic acid, Omega-3. Fewer ketones in circulation.

      Watch the following video, at a certain point Barry Groves states that an Oxford experiment, measuring brain size of participants, found that the biggest vegan brain was smaller than the smallest omnivore brains (itself already reduced from the golden era of straight red meat), and decreasing faster with age.

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        Various estimates of the time of the brain shrinkage and expiations have previously been proposed. The new paper discusses the previous literature, and presents results based on published cranial volumes. I would be happy to look at any serious papers that propose the Neolithic and its diet.

        https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2021.742639/full

        > …. Although an almost fourfold increase in brain volume during the last 2 million years is a hallmark in human evolution, it remains unappreciated — but well-documented — that both absolute and relative brain size have decreased since the end of the Pleistocene (Schwidetzky, 1976; Wiercinski, 1979; Beals et al., 1984; Henneberg, 1988; Henneberg and Steyn, 1993; Ruff et al., 1997; Bailey and Geary, 2009; Hawks, 2011; Bednarik, 2014; Liu et al., 2014; Bruner and Gleeson, 2019). The precise timing of this decrease in brain size, however, is unclear. Some have placed its origin in the late Pleistocene ∼35 kyr (Ruff et al., 1997) and others in the more recent Holocene ∼10 kyr (Henneberg, 1988; Hawks, 2011)….

        …. Materials and Methods

        To understand temporal patterns of human brain evolution, we applied a change-point analysis to identify the timing of inflection points in hominin brain evolution using our brain size dataset of 985 dated log10 transformed estimates of hominin cranial capacities (cc) compiled from the literature (Supplementary File 1). The dataset represents brain evolution over the last 10 million years of hominid and hominin evolution and includes Rudapithecus (N = 2), Sahelanthropus (N = 1), Ardipithecus (N = 1), Australopithecus (including Paranthropus) (N = 29), Early Pleistocene Homo (N = 37), Middle Pleistocene Homo (N = 60), Late Pleistocene Homo (N = 156), and Holocene H. sapiens (N = 699). We only used published cranial volumes (cc or mL) and not cadaver-derived weights (g) since cranial volume and brain weight are not equivalent (e.g., Tobias, 1970). Analysis was limited to individuals that are estimated to have been at least 10 years old and thus had exceeded the age at which modern H. sapiens achieves adult brain volume (Coqueugniot and Hublin, 2012).

        Changepoints were determined using the packages changepoint (Killick and Eckley, 2014) and segmented (Muggeo, 2008) in R Studio (Version 1.2. 5019). Changepoint was first used to provide approximate prior estimates for changes in the mean log10(cc) across the time series using the “BinSeg” method. These prior estimates were then used to fit a piecewise generalized linear model to the data with the segmented package (Muggeo, 2008), which provided estimates of 1) the locations of changepoints (or breakpoints) in the slope of the time series; and 2) the slopes of the lines around each changepoint, which we interpreted as approximate rates of evolutionary change. Because the phylogenetic relationship of the different hominin species remains contentious and because there is genetic evidence for interbreeding between many Late Pleistocene hominin populations (e.g., Gokcumen, 2020), we included all hominin specimens in the change point analysis. However, we ran two separate models: one including the small-brained Middle and Late Pleistocene fossils from H. naledi and H. floresiensis and one excluding them. We mainly describe the results for when these small brained species were excluded (N = 981), but the timing of the decrease in hominin brain size in the Holocene was negligible between these two models.

        Results

        The best piecewise GLM model fit explained approximately 79% of the variance (adj r2 = 0.79) in log10(cc) values and identified three changepoints (Table 1). The first was detected at 2.10 ± 0.07 Ma, coincident with fossil evidence near the first known occurrence of Homo erectus (Herries et al., 2020). At 2.10 Ma, the rate of evolution increased sharply from 0.03 ± 0.01 log10(cc)/Ma to 0.35 ± 0.05 log10(cc)/Ma. A second changepoint occurred at 1.49 ± 0.14 Ma when the rate of evolution slowed to 0.19 ± 0.01 log10 (cc)/Ma. A steady increase in brain size—independent of body size—followed and lasted through the Pleistocene (Ruff et al., 1997; Lee and Wolpoff, 2003; Rightmire, 2004; Hawks, 2011). We identified a third changepoint at 0.003 ± 0.001 Ma at a rate of −17.16 ± 6.69 log10(cc)/Ma. This rate is 50 times greater than the renowned increase in human brain size. Our data suggest that this reduction may have been more recent—3,000 years ago—than previously suggested. We interpret our result conservatively, and caution that any findings about brain size changes throughout human evolution are contingent on the resolution of the available dataset (e.g., VanSickle et al., 2020). Indeed, the inclusion of smaller-brained Pleistocene hominins (H. naledi and H. floresiensis) reduced model fit slightly (adj r2 = 0.74) and had the effect of widening the 95% CIs of the first two changepoints such that they overlapped between the wider time interval of 2.2–1.7 Ma (Table 2). Yet the timing of the third Holocene changepoint in this model was unaffected by the inclusion of these specimens, although its 95%CI also widened slightly (Table 2).

        • drb says:

          Thank you. The disappearance of mega fauna (35-50 k-years ago) is correlated with the beginning of the decline (in size). Rabbits and fish (and tubers) could not replace red meat, and so there was a gentle decline. Agricultural diets then produced a much steeper decline. Looking for social roots to this decline is like looking for ideological roots to the current economic decline.

          Mankind has only ever known three primary resources: meat, agricultural land, and energy. And, yes, where meat ran out quickly it was the end times for those populations. Where meat ran out slowly people had more time to adjust, including learning to domesticate cows and use milk, which partially substitutes for meat. Agricultural will always be slower because even a depleted soil will produce something, and you can always pasture animals on depleted soil.

          • hillcountry says:

            “Looking for social roots to this decline is like looking for ideological roots to the current economic decline.”

            nice way to put it drb

          • Mirror on the wall says:

            The analysis of the published cranial sizes indicated a changepoint with a very rapid rate of change (50X the two previous changes of increase) ~3000 years ago rather than any at the dates that you suggest. In other words, the physical evidence supports the present argument of likely socially conditioned brain shrinkage and in any case clearly at around 3000 years ago, and no evidence was found in the physical data to support shrinkage in the late Pleistocene or the Neolithic. Theories about diet around those dates seem to attempt to explain actually non-existent phenomena. Dates have previously been misestimated and theories constructed around those times that do not seem to have any significance in the actual time period. I hope that helps.

      • Halfvard says:

        I was just going to respond and say this, but drb even linked a good video lecture on it that I saw years ago.

        The extreme version of this brain shrinkage due to decreasing its nutritional status is seen in Alzheimer’s disease where the Blood Brain Barrier develops insulin resistance and glucose cannot cross to fuel the brain enough and it has to allow less vital areas to die off to keep the human alive and functioning.

    • Thierry says:

      There is something else no one ever think about: Oxygen.
      So, our brains were downsized around 3, 000 years ago? Strangely enough, 5,000 years ago the Sahara was still green. What happened? Is there a relationship between forests, that provide O2, and the brain size?
      With less O2, you have less energy (we get energy from oxydation, right?). I think the deforestation that happened when humans became sedentary and started agriculture played a big role. I recommend everyone to spend as much time as you can in Nature,where there are trees. Avoid the cities and pollution. Your brain does not like it.

      • brain size/function is likely to be linked to toolmaking and food, and the resourcefulness of the female

        male goes off hunting, gets killed

        female left with little ones to feed

        best type of food is high protein and doesn’t run away

        shellfish

        access to shelfish requires tools and dexterity, and can be accessed at the waterline with kids in tow.—woman becomes the toolmaker.—that probably leads to the bone needle, one of the most critical tools ever made.
        with a needle you can stitch furs together and encroach on colder territories

        also the best protection against predators is fire, which a woman can produce and keep going.

        fire in a cave produces smoke, food gets hung up for storage—there you have preserved smoked food.–hence better chances of year on year survival.

        fires get made in a shallow hollow, outside. over time water collects in the hollow—woman figures out that the clay under it has been hardened by fire—there you have the beginning of clay pots.

        very much simplified, but all pretty obvious really, linked to all that, the human physique changes, including brain size

  14. Lastcall says:

    An interesting metric would be to have commentators here post script their comments with jab status.
    OJO never Jabbed, incl childhood ambush jabs
    JO No jab
    J1 for first jab
    J2 for 2nd jab
    J3 etc….
    The commentariat could then decide how cherry picking/ confirmation bias is present/absent in the content.
    Both Malone and McCullough are a few jabs in and now anti-mRNA gene manipulation. The go along to get along crowd are fairly obvious, but some are less so.
    A roll call of participants each month would provide an interesting insight; seems Dunc Idunno and that crazy bird have succumbed to needle nasties.

    • Yorchichan says:

      Dunc still regularly makes his usual two posts (Orange Man Bad + unvaccinated covid death equals Darwinism in action) over on peakoil.com.

      Not sure about Anna.

      J0

  15. Michael Le Merchant says:

    The 5G Roll Out: EMF Radiation, Devastating Health Impacts, Social and Economic Implications. Crimes Against Humanity?
    https://www.globalresearch.ca/5g-crimes-against-humanity/5767555

    • Lastcall says:

      This ship needs to sink before its craziness can go deeper, spread further. Bring on system collapse and relocalisation FWIW.

  16. Michael Le Merchant says:

    The bond vigilantes are back

    Just backing off on Fed bond purchases has already released the bond vigilantes:

    The Rates Vigilantes are at the gates and are now pushing through / above 4 hikes in ’22…and with more trending.… The Fed will simply “have to” take what the market is dictating to them, despite me currently believing that the FOMC has little desire to do-so.
    Nomura via Zero Hedge

    That is what “bond vigilantes” do. What the term represents is bond investors taking the lead in setting bond yields to such a level that bond yields, by themselves, force other interest rates up that are pegged to bonds, which can even drive up the Fed Funds Rate. This is EXACTLY what I have been saying will happen. As the Fed releases its grip on the bond market, those bonds that everyone thought did “not see inflation coming” will rapidly price in the inflation that bond investors actually do believe is already here and is coming. THE BIG KEY I GAVE YOU: It is only the Fed’s MASSIVE manipulation of the bond market that has suppressed true price discovery, which is now going to get real again VERY QUICKLY. (Without any price discovery in the bond market, of course it looked like “all-wise” bond investors saw no inflation coming. Practically the only bond investor in the pool was the Fed, since it was buying more than 50% of treasuries issued, and we all know the Fed didn’t see any inflation coming because it kept telling us that!)

    What the return of price discovery (the re-entrance of the bond vigilantes) means is that the Fed will BE FORCED TO rapidly raise its official base inter-bank lending rate (the Fed Funds Rate) just to maintain the illusion that it is in control. It cannot be seen setting a low Fed Funds rate as a stated target and having that rate float above its target due to market forces, and it will not be able to maintain that rate at zero as it relinquishes its death grip on bonds, so it will be forced to raise its stated target to match what is actually happening between banks.

    Such is the work of “bond vigilantes,” forcing the Fedto rapidly reprice all interest rates for inflation, regardless of what the Fed wants. The tail is starting to wag the dog. The Fed’s only route out of that is to go back to QE in order to rest control back from other bond investors, which would shove inflation into a neighboring solar system. It doesn’t want to do that.

    Nomura’s Charlie McElligott warns that a good part of this vigilante action might happen in a quick dump this week because …

    We see “-100% Short” signals across every G10 Bond and MM Rate in the model.

    In other words, the aggregate of bond shorts has grown so high that those shorts, now that bond prices are falling, will force the investors who are on the long side of those trades to rapidly sell, collapsing bond prices even further in favor of those who are shorting bonds. There is an elevator down here, ready to be taken, and someone at the top has a pair of loppers around the cables.

    The market has already priced in four rate hikes this year, but that is still below what Fed members are saying is likely. Both Nomura and Deutsche Bank are suddenly saying (just since I wrote that Patron Post that said yield escalation was coming quickly) they anticipate the Fed will lead off with a shock move to signal to everyone it is finally taking inflation seriously, raising its Fed Funds rates by half a percent in one jolt in March; i.e., the second its taper is complete. Beyond that, Deutsche now says,

    The most likely scenario is that the Fed begins to raise rates at each meeting this year beginning at the March meeting
    https://thegreatrecession.info/blog/stocks-and-awe-federal-reserve-regime-change/

  17. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    Vanity Fair

    Anti-Vax Radio Hosts Keep Dying From COVID
    Will the passing of on-air opponents of pandemic mitigation efforts have any effect on their audiences?
    BY CALEB ECARE
    Marc Bernier of WNDB Radio speaks to White House Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove at a White House event for talk radio…

    Conservative radio hosts all across America are losing their lives for the cause. In the past month alone, five talk radio personalities who were vocal COVID-19-deniers, anti-vaxxers, or anti-maskers have all died after contracting the virus. Most recently was WNDB’s Marc Bernier, a late Daytona, Florida, talk radio host who dubbed himself “Mr. Anti-Vax” in December while assuring his listeners “I’m not taking it.” True to his word, Bernier contracted COVID-19 roughly three weeks ago and his death was announced over the weekend by his radio station––which had awkwardly acknowledged his on-air “anti-vaccine” commentary just before his passing. (WNDB was contacted for clarification regarding its COVID-19 safety policies but the station did not respond.)

    Though it might be assumed some right-wing media figures are simply feeding into the anti-vax frenzy to gin up outrage and ratings, the spate of recent deaths makes clear that, for a number of them, opposition to safe, effective vaccines and other pandemic mitigation efforts isn’t just talk. Such radio rants against efforts to stop the pandemic come as Republican men, a large segment of the talk radio audience, have been shown to be particularly resistant to getting vaccinated.

    On August 4, Newsmax fill-in host and longtime conservative talker Dick Farrel died from a “severe damage” from COVID-19 after spending the last weeks of his life claiming that the vaccine is “Bogus Bull [Shit],” referring to the pandemic as a “SCAM DEMIC,” and suggesting that the delta variant is an elaborate ruse orchestrated by Anthony Fauci to keep Americans fearing for their lives. “Why take a vax promoted by people who lied [to you] all along about masks, where the virus came from and the death toll?” he wrote in a July 3 Facebook post. Upon contracting the virus, Farrel was suddenly not willing to die for his previously held convictions, as one of his close friends, Amy Leigh Hair, claimed that he encouraged her to get the shot shortly before his death, saying that COVID-19 “is no joke and then he said: ‘I wish I had gotten [vaccinated]!’”

    😬..should of would of could of ….😆🤪💉 And CC is a big hoax too!!!

  18. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Unvaccinated Students New West Charter school, Los Angeles are segregated outside and not allowed to attend class. They were even denied chairs.
    https://twitter.com/Resist_05/status/1484281266937950208

  19. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    Marcus Lamb, a Texas televangelist who frequently railed against COVID-19 vaccine mandates on his show, has died several weeks after contracting the virus. He was 64.

    Lamb’s Daystar Television Network confirmed the outspoken Christian pundit’s passing Tuesday on its official Twitter account.

    “It’s with a heavy heart we announce that Marcus Lamb, president and founder of Daystar Television Network, went home to be with the Lord this morning,” the network wrote. “The family asks that their privacy be respected as they grieve this difficult loss. Please continue to lift them up in prayer.”

    The news comes just weeks after Lamb’s son Jonathan, who filled in for his father on the Nov. 23 Daystar episode, dubbed his dad’s battle with COVID “a spiritual attack from the enemy,” Religion News Service reported.

    “As much as my parents have gone on here to kind of inform everyone about everything going on to the pandemic and some of the ways to treat COVID — there’s no doubt that the enemy is not happy about that,” Lamb’s son fumed. “And he’s doing everything he can to take down my Dad.”

    From the New York Post.com

    Ah, well, look on the bright side…Covid brought him to his resting place with the higher authority

    • Fast Eddy says:

      For every one of these we have 100k who gleefully injected and are now maimed/dead.

      Your point?

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Spoke to my anti vax brother — his partner had Covid last week – tested for it… he’s fine… my brother got something around the same time – sore throat — nothing major – gone in a few days..

      He didn’t get tested but without a doubt it was omi…

      It’s what comes next that is likely the concern – right in the middle of winter!!!

  20. MG says:

    Computing and energy savings:

    https://finweb.hnonline.sk/ekonomika/13084965-tachyum-prvykrat-povedal-kedy-vstupi-na-burzu-slovensky-superpocitac-prinesie-svetovu-revoluciu

    Google Translate:

    “Slovakia, a small country, should, for the first time in human history, bring technology that exceeds the capacity and speed of the human brain,” said Tachyum founder Radoslav Danilák at the Slovak National Interest conference.

    The Slovak-American company developing the Prodigy universal processor will start producing a revolutionary chip next year.

    Researchers estimate that 10 to 30 exaflops are needed to build a system with higher capacity and speed than the human brain.

    The supercomputer, which Slovakia wants to build at the end of next year, will have 64 exaflops, which is a measure of the computing power of computers, added the CEO.”

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tachyum-prodigy-transforms-data-centers-130000365.htmll

    “Prodigy’s 10x lower processor core power consumption will dramatically cut carbon emissions associated with data center usage. Prodigy’s 3x lower cost (at equivalent performance) will also translate to billions of dollars in annual savings to hyperscalers like Google, Facebook, Amazon and Alibaba.”

    • Maybe or maybe not, as we gradually reflect the changes in the chips that go into computer. Any change toward much faster computers seems likely to be very slow. Right now, we don’t have enough chip factories built. We are low on materials for building pretty much any kind of microprocessor. Computers seem to be made in China, where there are a lot of businesses are shut-in because of COVID.

      • MG says:

        It is interesting that Mr. Danilak was aware of the comming global energy crisis:

        “Mr. Danilak believes the reduced energy usage of the Prodigy chip will alleviate what he says is a coming global energy crisis. In 10 years, the explosion of cloud computing data centers, artificial intelligence-driven computing, 5G telecommunications and the “internet of things” — billions of networked devices — threatens to overwhelm current electrical power capacity.

        As electronic data grows, the centers used to house, store, process and cool servers could run out of juice.”

        https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jul/30/tachyum-prodigy-universal-processor-microchip-revo/

  21. hillcountry says:

    Thanks for a great article Gail. Did y’all ever discuss Christopher Clugston’s book BLIP: Humanity’s 300 year self-terminating experiment with industrialism? Those depletion numbers on critical minerals are an eye-opener.

    • Woodchuck says:

      I read Blip. Very thorough analysis of the critical non-renewable natural resources industrial civilization depends on. He holds out some hope that small numbers of survivors will find pockets of renewable natural resources but basically thinks humans are done by 2050.

      • hillcountry says:

        yes, it sure is thorough; and great references. I wonder how long it took him to put all the data together and reason-out the implications. I ran across this book review from 2020:

        “I purchased my copy last year to use as a reference for some writing I’m doing on the the collapse of industrial civilization, opened it quickly, and put it away until I needed the information. Wish I had read it sooner, as much of what I’ve written needs to be rewritten in light of new information. “Blip” is much more than a collection of excellent charts, graphs, and tables, although it is that, it’s also a valuable collection of the author’s astute analysis of how we got to where we are, and where we’re going from here.”

        “This will be a short review for an important book. I know of no other that covers our resource situation with the depth and clarity that this one does. Written long before the appearance of Covid-19, it does an excellent job of dispelling the myth that the worldwide lock down was the cause of the inevitable collapse we find ourselves in the midst of. It’s also the antidote to the prevailing hopium concerning our chances of maintaining our consuming lifestyles after a “brief recession followed by a V-shaped recovery.” It’s over, and the sooner we realize it, the sooner we can look to the safety and survival of our loved ones and others we care about.”

    • No. It does sound like it is good however. It is $19.95, so not terribly expensive.

    • hillcountry says:

      Noticed on the back cover of Blip that his previous work includes: Scarcity – Humanity’s Final Chapter? published in 2012 and described as the definitive resource pertaining to NNR scarcity. (seems like Blip in 2019 could be even more so – haven’t read Scarcity yet)

      Here’s part of the Amazon blurb on Scarcity.

      “Scarcity is essential reading for those who correctly perceive that the world, especially the industrialized “Western” world, is in a state of decline—decline that cannot possibly be reversed by our incessant barrage of misguided economic and political “fixes”. Scarcity will enable you to make sense of a world that is experiencing the most profound paradigm shift in human history.”

      “NNR [non-renewable natural resources] scarcity is the most daunting challenge ever to confront humanity. If we Homo sapiens are truly an exceptional species, now is the time to prove it.”

      “Scarcity is an impressive analysis of our present predicament. Far too many influential people are attempting to address that predicament with flagrantly misconceived notions about it, and most of what nations and their leaders are trying to do about today’s troubles remains counterproductive. This you know, and you show it crisply and emphatically.” – William R. Catton Jr.

      “Note: For those who are unfamiliar with William Catton, he published the seminal work on humanity’s “predicament”, entitled “Overshoot”, in 1982. If you have not yet read “Overshoot”, I strongly encourage you to do so; it is arguably the most important book written in the 20th century.”

      • Retired Librarian says:

        “Overshoot” is the baseline & the best. Reading it helped me understand the things I read here. It us one of those rare books where the date written does not matter.

      • hillcountry says:

        The core 15 critical NNR’s listed in Blip are: Phosphate Rock, Potash, Coal, Oil, Natural Gas, Bauxite (Aluminum), Copper, Iron Ore, Lead, Nickel, Tin, Zinc

        Noticed potash is in the news lately

    • hillcountry says:

      Comment about Clugston’s first book Scarcity :

      “Clugston does a commendable job of pulling the information about the importance and supply prospects for of each of the 89 NNRs together. What he finds is that the materials are being extracted and used in greater quantities than ever. Some of the materials have substitutes, but, like water, many of them do not and some processes will run short of “strategic materials” before we run out of the energy to power the processes.”

      “The downside of his analysis is that he takes the rate of use and the rate of extraction for the period 2000-2008 and projects that into the future to determine how long these materials will last. This type of analysis does not take into account the economic damage that the accelerating costs of these materials will inflict. This will slow down the economy and make the materials last longer.”

  22. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    Reuters
    Tongan ‘real life Aquaman’ survives 27-hour swim after tsunami
    Thu, January 20, 2022, 2:27 AM
    WELLINGTON (Reuters) -A 57-year-old Tongan man who said he swam around 27 hours after getting swept out to sea during Saturday’s devastating tsunami has been hailed a ‘real life Aquaman’.

    The eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano on Saturday killed at least three people, sent tsunami waves rolling across the archipelago, damaging villages, resorts and many buildings and knocked out communications for the nation of about 105,000 people.

    Lisala Folau, who lived on the small, isolated island of Atata which has a population of about 60 people, was swept out to sea when the waves hit land at about 7 p.m. on Saturday, he said in a radio interview to Tongan media agency Broadcom Broadcasting.

    Folau said he was painting his home when he was alerted about the tsunami by his brother, and soon the waves had gone through his lounge.

    He climbed on a tree to escape but when he got down another big wave swept him away, he said. The 57-year-old said he is disabled and cannot walk properly.

    “I just floated, bashed around by the big waves that kept coming,” he told the radio station.

    Folau said he kept floating, and slowly managed to swim 7.5 km (4.7 miles) to the main island of Tongatapu, reaching the shore 27 hours later at about 10 p.m. on Sunday.

    Reuters was unable to contact Folau or verify the events.

    If true, sometimes Lady Luck holds your hand

  23. Fast Eddy says:

    Update on the failure of the vaccines to protect against death

    nt
    Share
    Last week I analysed data accidentally released by the UKHSA that appeared to show that two doses of vaccine rapidly fail to offer any protection whatsoever, in opposition to official statistics that continue to show that the vaccines, while offering no protection against infection, still offer protection against illness and death.

    This week the UKHSA has updated their methodology, and they are no longer reporting on any statistics relating to two doses of vaccine only. I think it is time to update our analysis…

    Thankfully, the UKHSA do release enough data to be able to estimate the impact of two doses only. The fact that the rate of infections is far higher in the vaccinated has now been shown for many months — indeed, the only people who continue to maintain that they have some residual protection against infection are government bodies…

    So, today’s estimates of the protection of two doses only against hospitalisation and death are:

    It appears that things have got somewhat worse since last week’s report, with the hospitalisation and death rates in the double vaccinated (not boosted) exceeding that seen in the unvaccinated for all aged over 70, and with a higher death rate in those aged over 60 as well.

    What’s more, there now appears to be practically no benefit of vaccination with two doses of vaccine for those aged under 60, in terms of the remaining protection against hospitalisation and death.

    You’d think that the UKHSA would be informing the public of the failure of the vaccines, to help people make informed choices, but instead they’re working hard to make it difficult to access these data; it is clear that the UKHSA is not working for the benefit of the population.

    In addition, these data suggest that the idea of vaccine mandates and passports should now be dead; our governments cannot impose vaccine mandates when their performance is so very terrible and where they look as though they’re actually increasing risks. I note that the UK government only yesterday stated that they were removing the requirement for vaccine passports imminently — perhaps they got advance notice of these data from the UKHSA.

    https://bartram.substack.com/p/update-on-the-failure-of-the-vaccines

    https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fee50c389-c768-48e1-bcd6-54e1aad183ef_808x380.png

    Anyone think Fauci and Friends are unaware of this?

    • Oddys says:

      The signs have been there for a couple of weeks – the statistics have started to come in and several intelligent people have seen them and are now trying to position theselves as close to the exits as possible. This will have deeper socio-cultural impact than the Tjernobyl disaster had in its time. Dont expect any kind of uprising – just expect to see people sitting around staring into the walls with empty facial expressions.

      The only effect of the “vaccines” is to actually kill people. Not a genocide, just a couple of the weakest percents, but enough to give a statistical impression of protecting the survivors – but that was just because they let the “vaccines” work for a couple of months before starting the body-count.

      • Rodster says:

        “the statistics have started to come in and several intelligent people have seen them and are now trying to position theselves as close to the exits as possible”

        I don’t know about intelligent. It seems evil is the better word. The UK has bailed out of the lockdown restrictions, vaccine and mask wearing mandates. Now they are telling their people to use commonsense. That’s what was needed when this all started.

        Maybe those running the show got a little “spooked” when they saw The Plebs show their anger with growing protests and civil unrest around the world. It sure as hell did not help BoJo when word got out that he and many of his staff were having parties during the holidays and not abiding by their own rules.

        • Oddys says:

          As soon as you start to do honest statistics and count people as “vaccinated” immediately after the shots you will find piles of dead bodies directly caused by the “vaccines”. The data is there and a lot of smart people have seen it.

          Actual dead bodies are VERY difficult to hide for any extended period of time. I recall an Alfred Hitchcock quote going like: “Never ever try to get rid of the body – that will only ruin your name and reputation – not to speak of your family and relatives.”

          • Rodster says:

            “As soon as you start to do honest statistics”

            Right there is the problem. We no longer live in an honest world. We are being run by crime syndicates posing as governments and drug dealers posing as pharmaceutical companies.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Any idea why they wouldn’t adopt this?

          https://gbdeclaration.org/focused-protection/

          • Oddys says:

            That would reveal the total lack of protection from the “vaccines”. It is not even a “leaky” vaccine with limited protection. It is a pure poison (although a rather weak one). They do absolutely everything they can to get rid of the unvaccinated control group in order to hide the toxic properties under a thick blanket of skewed statistics.

            • Halfvard says:

              I tend to think it’s long acting rather than a weak poison. If you consider potential long term damage, amplified per dosage of the jab, then it seems like a very effective poison.

              And not only does it seem to be effective, but it’s is multi vector and seems to have a stochastic response between individuals. I really think that most people will never see the causation due to these factors.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I just had someone send me the Boris roll back speech and tell me this is the beginning of the end… as in this is the end of covid…

        This is someone who is rabidly anti-vaxx…

        I responded with… if it is so then:

        1. Why given the record hospitalization and death counts does Boris not implement Focused Protection?

        2. Why does Boris not acknowledge that the virus is now not a threat so we can stop the Boosters and stop injecting 5 yr olds?

        3. How can a virus that is hospitalizing and killing record numbers – be referred to as mild?

        Unable to respond.

        It seems so obvious to The Great Fast Eddy what is happening … but then Fast Eddy operates of 1500HP … so complex things are simple to HIM….

        The Elders have injected the low and medium hanging fruit… that is more than enough to realize a successful CEP…

        Now the goal is to use that pool of billions of CovIDIOTS to create Devil Covid…

        How do you do that? Very obviously you want as many of the injected CovIDIOTS to be infected with covid because that is how you create mutations.

        What do you think created Delta and Omicron? The leaky vaccines of course.

        And that is what is going to create Devil Covid… in fact there are going to be exponentially more infected CovIDIOTS prancing about (most with mild symptoms – which ensure massive spread given it is highly contagious)…. and passing it.

        The stage is now set — for utter Catastrophe.

        https://www.voiceforscienceandsolidarity.org/videos-and-interviews/second-call-to-who-please-dont-vaccinate-against-omicron

        Even a rabid anti-vaxxer will recoil against the obvious… nobody wants to acknowledge that their death is imminent.

        Take a step back — and allow your inner Spock to run the show — doesn’t it then become crystal clear what is happening?

        BAU would have collapsed without Covid… we would not be here now……. Do you really think this is the beginning of the end?

        Well it is… but not in the way many are thinking

        • I am not 100% convinced on this. This is Gert Vander Bossche’s view, but I don’t think it is the view of everyone who has looked at this issue.

          • JMS says:

            It certainly isn’t. Gail
            It seems pretty obvious to me now that in this C19 the origin of the disease is to be found in the “treatment” and the “cure”: lockdowns, fear, IUC treatments, immune system damaging vaccines, etc all favor disease and death. In short, chempharmafia causes the disease and then sell the cure which in turn creates new disease. That’s their MO in the last 100 years. And we can even deem it as brilliant in its circular (and hugely profitable) simplicity.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Why is it so many refuse to answer Fast Eddy’s questions…

              Can someone please explain why highly vaxxed countries like Australia have record all things covid.

              What’s causing this?

            • Minority of One says:

              “can someone please explain why highly vaxxed countries like Australia have record all things covid.”

              Record highs compared to previous highs which were relatively low. This is hardly die-off. Yet.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Of course it’s not a die-off… the Mutant has not arrived — yet.

              The plan was – get as many vaxxed as possible — with a vax that offers ZERO protection —- then Let er Rip…

              93% vaxxed with a leaky vaccine — and the latest version of Covid ripping through those people …

              Not only in Australia — as we can see many countries are now Letting er Rip…. and they are icing the Extinction Cake with Boosters for All.

              Anyone but a MOREON would know where this is going to lead… anyone but a MOREON.

            • Lidia17 says:

              WRT the military-industrial complex, I’ve heard it called the “self-licking ice cream cone”.

  24. Fast Eddy says:

    ‘Take solace in the fact that it is not possible for a CovIDIOT to Unf789 itself’ Fast Eddy Esq.

    Ki1
    Begs the question that with each successive booster plus five to eight months of time, if the outcome for those immune systems gets even worse. In other words, will the people currently with three shots be in even worse shape than the two shots gang six months from now.

    Barekicks
    So basically: is the vaccine wreaking havoc on your immune system and giving you short-term protection at the expense of increasing overall susceptibility in the long run? To maintain a base level of protection you’d have to boost every 20 weeks, which is unrealistic and absurd.

    Sebasmatic
    Like I said before, previously infected show high levels of N, M and S antibodies. If you hyper-train your immune system to only react to S (especially the old, wildtype one) then you’re going to have an inefficient response compared to a more general immune response of naive subjects.

    https://eugyppius.substack.com/p/unboostered-brits-infected-and-dying/comments

  25. Student says:

    End of quarantine system for children at school in Israel.
    Children will be tested twice a week (test free of charge given to families) and if they are positive or if they have any symptom they will stay at home, otherwise, no problem, go to school.

    https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/320849

    And also here, where by the way Bennet declares: we have to say the truth. Omicron is less severe and this wave is going to be over in shorter time than previous waves.

    https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/skh1tgwtt#autoplay

    • Fast Eddy says:

      The MSM is continuing to tell us Omicron is the beginning of the end of covid….(even though we are seeing record infections hospitalizations and deaths…)

      Of course the MSM can be trusted to tell us the truth

  26. Fast Eddy says:

    Malenkiy Scot11 min ago·edited 6 min ago

    It is also important to note that the boosted have very low rates because of the statistical malpractice of not counting them as such until two weeks after the shot. (El Gato Malo among others has some posts on it.)

    On one foot, what happens is that a boosted individual gets sick before the 2 week mark, he is counted as “unboosted”, skewing the results – making vaxxed, but not boosted looking worse, and those who are boosted better. This is especially true with very high infection rates, when a large proportion of people gets sick within those 2 weeks.

  27. Fast Eddy says:

    Oh no….

    Unboostered Brits Infected and Dying at Higher Rates than Unvaccinated

    The UK Health Security Agency has been condemned for months to report incredibly inconvenient vaccine efficacy statistics. How they have struggled. They have composed disclaimer after disclaimer. They filled a whole blog post with special pleading. They have greyed out the inconvenient numbers.

    In their latest report, published just this evening, they’ve tried something new and bold. They now only calculate case, hospitalisation and death rates for the unvaccinated and the triple vaccinated. The double vaccinated have been banished entirely from Table 12. This will make the evil negative efficacy go away, right?

    https://eugyppius.substack.com/p/unboostered-brits-infected-and-dying

    https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07c58ed6-0ff3-460e-9cc4-6fb5995a42a0_932x600.png

    https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1100,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1e9e0605-be4d-44cd-88a2-91d25db6b8ea_924x607.png

    norm… Australia? mike?

  28. Minority of One says:

    Interesting update on Chinese real estate debt.
    Segment two: explains why Evergrande is in talks with its China-based bond-holders but not the foreign-based ones (foreign ones have no collateral)
    Segment three: Evergrande bonds due over the next 5 years. $7.4B due in 2022.
    Segment four: Other bonds due 2022 (all Chinese real estate companies – e.g. $27B Q1 2022)
    Segment five: Progress update re restructuring of Evergrande foreign bond debts – none so far
    Segment Six: Three Red Lines policy – explains what this is and current shenanigans
    Segment Seven: Housing Market update. Prices remaining static in Tier 1 cities, falling elsewhere.
    Much of current development in Tiers 2, 3 and 4.
    95%+ fall in Evergrande sales over last two quarters – ouch!
    Segment eight: Summary and conclusion. Defaults.

    EVERGRANDE – Developers Bond Repayment Avalanche Threatens Chinese Property Sector COLLAPSE in Q1

  29. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Triple-Jabbed Over-30s Have Higher Infection Rates Than the Unvaccinated, UKHSA Data Show

    This week’s UKHSA vaccine surveillance report has landed – and this week a change. In the (in)famous Table 12, which shows rates of infections, deaths and hospitalisations per 100,000 by vaccination status, the data have suddenly switched to giving rates for triple-jabbed rather than two-or-more doses, meaning we no longer have continuity with our previous data. So sudden was the change in fact, that the report itself has not kept up with it, and the notes under the table still say the rates are for “people who have received either two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine or in people who have not received a COVID-19 vaccine”.

    The change means we have to start over in our week-by-week comparisons, so the infection rates by age for this period are depicted above and the unadjusted vaccine effectiveness figures are depicted below.
    https://dailysceptic.org/2022/01/20/triple-jabbed-over-30s-have-higher-infection-rates-than-the-unvaccinated-ukhsa-data-show/

  30. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Austrian parliament approves vaccine mandate for adults

    VIENNA (AP) — Austria’s parliament voted Thursday to introduce a COVID-19 vaccine mandate for adults from Feb. 1, the first of its kind in Europe.

    Lawmakers voted 137 to 33 in favor of the mandate, which will apply to all residents of Austria aged 18 and over. Exemptions are made for pregnant women, people who for medical reasons can’t be vaccinated, or who have recovered from a coronavirus infection in the past six months.
    https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/austrian-parliament-vote-universal-vaccine-mandate-82368990

    • Oddys says:

      Another proud “Fritzl-moment” in Austrian history. They used to be pretty good at PR, making Hitler a German and Mozart an Austrian, but now they have lost it completely.

      • JMS says:

        As the great austrian writer Thomas Bernhard as said:
        “Six-and-a-half million [~9 M now] morons and lunatics crying out full-throated in search of a fuhrer”.
        T. Bernhard, Hofmannsthal, Karl Kraus etc , apparently, the best Austria has given to the world are critics of Austricism, ie that kind of orderly, sheepish apathy cum amusing lightness (didn’t the Austrians invent kitsch and valsa?) that characterizes Infelix Austria. Poor bastards. Kill’em all i say.

    • At least there are a few exemptions.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      If Covid is now like the common cold and it’s the end … why this?

      norm? Actually anyone who thinks Boris announced the end the other day – feel free to respond

      It would be so easy to say – we won – no need for boosters

      • Oddys says:

        My take is that we are dealing with three main forces defining the scene:

        1) Populism. Our dear politicans exist by getting elected – by voters. There is no other way for them. They run polls and focus groups all the time to position themselves for the voters and hone and optimize their messages and appearances to maximize votes.

        2) Demography. We have a LOT of old people hanging around. A lot of immature, stupid and scared old people to that. Most of them are hiding away in apartments and houses and are hardly visible at all – a little like the “dark matter” physicists need to make their models work – but they are there. And they vote!

        3) Stupidity. Please remember that half the population has an IQ below 100. Add to that that younger people tend to have higher IQ than the very old and we can safely assume that on average that “dark matter” is pretty stupid.

        According to the best views on human development we should acquire more wisdom and maturity the older we get and become more and more at peace with death. For some individuals that is true. For the large majority it is not. Most of the old people I meet are extremely immature, stupid and scared of death. More scared the closer they are to natural death.

        What these geriatrics say is “please kill some children if it helps me to get another month or two”. And they vote accordingly.

    • Jarle says:

      A proof of madness if you ever saw one!

  31. If the world economy falls, it is not coming back.

    Back to the era of Voltaire.

  32. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Will German companies be able to survive this?
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FJhzqbXWUAAZplv?format=jpg&name=medium

    • Huge increases in the Producer Price Index are hard to pass on to customers as higher prices of goods and services sold. Wages don’t go up by 19% in a year.

      • Dennis L. says:

        Per Tim Morgan, discretionary spending will be reduced to zero. Much discretionary spending has been funded by cc, they work as long as paid off as a couple of cards with large limits result in a month long float.

        Another plus of cc is the cash back feature. Float $20K, get 1% back and an instant $2.4K per year income. Works great in business; don’t get caught unable to pay off the card each month. This probably not unlike banks using the fed.

        CC are thus not part of the real world, financialization. Question is where does the float and cash back income come from?

        Dennis L.

  33. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Mining Bitcoin may soon be banned in Russia, the world’s third largest crypto miner

    The central bank of Russia, the third-biggest crypto mining nation in the world, proposed a blanket ban on the use and creation of all cryptocurrencies domestically.

    Cryptocurrencies bear the hallmarks of a pyramid scheme and undermine the sovereignty of monetary policy, posing a threat to the Russian financial system, the central bank said in a report published Thursday.

    “Potential financial stability risks associated with cryptocurrencies are much higher for emerging markets, including in Russia,” the report said. “This is due to the traditionally higher propensity for saving in foreign currency and an insufficient level of financial literacy.”

    Mining hurts the country’s green agenda, jeopardizes Russia’s energy supply and amplifies the negative effects of the spread of cryptocurrencies, creating incentives for circumventing attempts at regulation, according to the Bank of Russia.

    The central bank’s hard line against crypto dovetails with the position of Russia’s powerful security services, which also back a compete ban domestically to prevent it from being used to fund the country’s opposition, according to two people familiar with the issue.
    https://fortune.com/2022/01/20/mining-bitcoin-crypto-ban-russia/

  34. Michael Le Merchant says:

    If anyone thinks this is over…
    https://twitter.com/backtolife_2019/status/1484127395296821252

    • Use of taxes to vaccinate the global South.

      • Student says:

        Yes, now they want to bother the South of the world.
        “If you are complaint with the global vaccination campaign you can have cooperation in business, otherwise you are out”.
        Instead of thinking that with Omicron we are probably in another phase worldwide.
        Let’s see if the South of the world will accept this kind of slavery contract

        • Student says:

          compliant. Sorry for typing mistake.

        • drb says:

          As you and Gail correctly imply, depopulation does not work if you do not depopulate the entire world.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            100%

            A partial cull will result in extinction. Because BAU would collapse.

            The CEP is an all or nothing proposition.

            Stay Tuned for Human Marek’s on Steroids and Coke.

    • Oddys says:

      The WEF crowd again. Probably the most over-rated gathering I’ve ever heard about. A hotel-owner running a dog-and-pony show to stroke the egos of some very rich people and elected officials. The main outcomes of these events are hot air and cocaine metabolites.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Well that is odd!

      We are told covid is now a sniffle… and of course governments are aware of the data — cuz the substack guys are pulling their data straight from govt raw data….

      They know the vaccines are worse than useless…

      So if this is mild and the vaccines are useless… why not just stop the vaccines and declare victory?

      Instead they double down on the vax push… very strange indeed

      But what does Fast Eddy know? HE’s jut a Mega Genius … a Seer… a Prophet… and a God (God) all rolled into one

      norm – I am sure you have a logical explanation for this

      • JMS says:

        You are right, of course. Lifting the restrictions is just a tactical ploy to fool again covid-morons.Obviously the elite’s plan is to never let go of the power of control this manufactured crisis has provided them with.
        But every kolapsnik knows that the Pandemic Opera only ends when the fat lady (MacDeath) sings.

  35. Mirror on the wall says:

    Halfvard: You make a good point that ‘independence’ is practically equivalent to power. It implies a freedom to do whatever you want, because you can. Otherwise you cannot, and you do what other people want you to do, or at least you compromise and you do not do some of what you want to do, and you do some of what others want you to do.

    Modern popular political culture tends to see power as ‘bad’ and freedom as ‘good’, but really they are the same thing, in so far as the one is the condition of the other, and they are the same situation. It is likely because the power and freedom of one limits the power and freedom of the other, so it is pretended that the world works differently, and that freedom is available to all so long as power is limited. It is imagined that power is the opposite to freedom.

    But that ‘freedom’ is little more than a bourgeois ideological slogan, a justification of bourgeois power. The implication is that some ‘ideal’ social order has been approached that affords ‘freedom’ to all – to be a good, pliant, law-abiding worker-consumer. It is then equivalent to a willing slavery. Bourgeois ‘freedom’ for all is slavery for all?

    Freedom is always going to be limited to the extent that power is limited, and only absolute power allows for absolute freedom. Any other ‘truth’ is imaginary, conformism and self-deceit, or at best an acceptable ‘arrangement’. Perhaps the illusion is not such a ‘bad’ idea – depending entirely on what people want out of life.

    Christianity proposes that ‘the truth shall set you free’, which can be interpreted as an alignment of oneself with an absolute power, God, which leads to the attainment of all of one’s goods – and that touches on the principle of an alignment with a state. People often see their power and interest as furthered by incorporation into a powerful social body, like a country, be it France, UK or whatever. But arguably they are still slaves.

    • You make very good points in this comment. One I like is this one:

      “Modern popular political culture tends to see power as ‘bad’ and freedom as ‘good’, but really they are the same thing, in so far as the one is the condition of the other, and they are the same situation. It is likely because the power and freedom of one limits the power and freedom of the other, so it is pretended that the world works differently, and that freedom is available to all so long as power is limited. It is imagined that power is the opposite to freedom.”

      Another point you make is, “People often see their power and interest as furthered by incorporation into a powerful social body. . .”

      I think that vaccination is seen in this light. Somehow, it will protect citizens in total, even though this is not the case.

    • jj says:

      Great post! There are all sorts of freedom. I would say there is a great deal of difference between the freedom to express ideas and the notions around earning and spending.

      If you work for a employer and things change they may change your job description to include more responsibilities. I see nothing wrong with that if the responsibilities are business related. Obviously sexual relations with the boss or experimental drug mandates are not business related.

      Theres no guarantees in a job or other contracts. The contract between a government and its citizens must be mallable too in order to adapt. As you state there are inherant limits to freedom. So what is appropriate and what is not? Thats very easy to agree on when in a time of abundant resources and very hard to agree on in a time of depleting resources.

      The USA constitution is a very reasonable citizen/government contract. Theres a lot of things lumped into peoples ideas about the constitution in the USA that are not reasonable IMO and those things are largely related to earning consuming and owning. The constitution says nothing about earning consuming and owning. IMO in this time of change we would be wise to accept their is going to be a change in the contract but basic human self evident rights are not on the table. What seems to be occurring is the opposite. Give up all your basic human rights and earning owning and consuming will be left intact. This is nonsensical to me. The earning owning and consuming that are the issue in a finite planet not the basic human rights started with the magna carta. My guess however is that most people would prefer to give up self evident rights for consumption even though one has little to do with the other. The government as a self organizing entity is working to ensure its survival. Can it do it without self evident rights in the contract with its citizens? perhaps. Is that slavery? perhaps. Can humanity maintain its relationship/contract with our habitat without accepting the limits of a finite planet? Not a chance.

    • Kowalainen says:

      Freedom to do exactly what and in which context? As in poking around in an ant hive for no other reason than it is possible, perhaps?

      No; a reasonable interpretation of ‘freedom’ is the absence of contorted desires that lack evolutionary basis. How difficult it is to chill out and stop chasing that which isn’t helpful?

      The hardest thing seem for humans, females specially, is to accept that which they are. Instead they fabricate a word salad of idioms and copium that swirl about in the myopia of everyday collective (sub)conscious wants and desires.

      I had a conversation with a smart ass hottie broad the other day (can you believe it?) and the word ‘success’ came up. I was a bit confused at first at a successful person talking about success, then I realized it was apparently about climbing the corporate/organizational ladder. Ah the naïveté. Very well. Good luck with that.

      Ok; back to the waves of transparency in existence itself.

      🏄‍♀️ 🌊

      ☺️

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        The only thing that you can do that is ‘in line’ with evolution is to breed. Your personal behaviour is otherwise entirely irrelevant to that process, and it is mere ‘life-stylism’ posing as some shaky ‘moralism’.

        The evolution of humans is, any way, generally framed by much broader energetic, cultural and environmental factors, and the individual is pretty irrelevant to that. It does not really matter to evolution whether you personally breed or not.

        If your medical history is sound then you might want to breed. Not that most people worry too much about that these days. Infant mortality has totally collapsed, and there is always incubators and socialised health care to see them through.

        • Kowalainen says:

          The only defects I’m aware of is my capacity for thinking and the obnoxious disadvantage of kindness.

          Back to the subject: So how do you want it?
          Either (offspring) matters or it doesn’t. No?

          I merely explain how it is. And as you already know:

          It is what it is.

          In the mean time I’ll:

          Chop wood; carry water, and
          Chuck in the oats and turn the cranks

          And if that isn’t comedy and drama enough?
          So be it. (Logos mostly)

          But don’t get me wrong; I wish you the best of luck with that line of reasoning.

          (Within its temptations is the truth of _all_ species)

          YOLO!1!1!!! MOAR!!!1!!!

          🤣👍👍

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Freedom is being allowed to go to the VIP room whenever you want and snort heaps of blow and enjoy lap dances… and return home at 4am without experiencing any nagging

        • Kowalainen says:

          Nagging sounds like a good opportunity for some deconstructive critique that extends for 8h straight into the abyss that stares back at you.

          It is a bad strategy to grab the devil by the horns expecting a smooth ride straight to hell.

          🤣👍👍

    • Halfvard says:

      I’m glad my point came through, I was quite tired and it was late and I don’t think I was explaining my thinking as coherently as I might have been able to if I sat and wrote up a long well-constructed post rather than stream of consciousness responses to Mssr. Le Merchant.

  36. Rodster says:

    There’s a mass “anti vaxx mandate rally” scheduled for Jan 27th in Wash DC. Supposedly security fences are going up. Hmmm, maybe TPTB are envisioning torches and pitchforks in their future.

    • One week from today. Not too far off.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        People will march around — there will be some speeches.. and the boosters will continue

        If this overturns the agenda — then someone should have told the Vietcong that all they needed to do was organize a rally in Hanoi and make some speeches… it would have saved a lot of lives

    • Ed says:

      The people who protested a year ago in DC are still in prison in DC. Who in their right mind would go to a protest in DC?

      • Someone without a job, looking for free room and board.

        • DB says:

          Good one, Gail! Funniest comment of the day …

          Anti-government protesters in DC, though, reportedly get poor treatment as well (no medical care, solitary confinement, physical abuse).

      • jj says:

        Im preparing my “STOP ENTROPY” protest sign! Hot pink or orange what do you think?

        Protest was only relevant as long as the MSM reported freely on protests and the branches of government concerned themselves with what the people think. The government is a entity much like a corporation at this point. It cares about its own survival first and foremost. Protest is a threat and dealt with as such. A nice honeypot to collect facial recognition databases. Tie them in with card purchases. Nice package. Integration. Why? Why not? YUM data. Who doesnt like data? Its the gift that keeps on giving! It is cheap! more the better!

        Folks the issue doesnt matter. All protestors are dissenters. All dissenters get catalogued. Just look at “occupy” a movement that should have been viewed as absolutely in step with the administration. All the messaging from the administration was that protest was appropriate. But when it occurred not so much. Odd? That was our first education about where the power wasnt. How naive we were.

        Does less energy guarantee a dictator as a function of efficiency? I think i will ignore that question. Tator tots and vegetable soup for dinner! Yum! Crisp or extra spicy! I get a choice!

        Protest has a aspect of worship. Is the government a deity with unlimited powers that can change anything at will? Some apparently believe so. My opinion is the best option is to practice getting by with less rather than demanding the government deity perform. Stay as far from government as you possibly can and live a happy peaceful life. What is the difference between a beggar in a walmart entrance with a sign and a protestor in DC with a sign?

        When begging it doesnt do a lot of good if you are surrounded by other beggars not wealth. It looks like the incredible spending spree of the USA government and the even more incredible debt is starting to get the earliest push back in inflation. We can only hope inflation holds at 10%. If ten percent is ok is 15%? If 15% is ok is 25%? IMO this is why protest is somewhat irrelevant this issue is far larger than any protest issue in effect. No amount of protest will change the spending or debt. Regardless begging from a demonstrably flat broke patron who cant mandate physics and never could seems a poor use of time to me.

        Inflation as a function of resource depletion is what will effect people the most. Lots of “stop entropy” signs washed up on the beach after the Tsunami of inflation perhaps? Im sure their will be lots of blame to pass around. Lots of imaginary boogyman to blame circumstances on, war being old reliable in this matter. Ross Perot was right in a way. But Ross didnt mention the elephant in the room either. Infinite consumption finite planet. Blame, protest, none of them take personal accountability for our consumption.

        Its worth noting that the worlds religions and their founders did not incorporate a finite planet in their guidance. The politicians certainly wont. “were f*****” not the best campaign stategy. Possible exception is Buddhism and native american practices. However after having that brand new BMW pass my ancient Hyundai after a day meditation exercise with plates “Bhuddha1” I am no longer sure. But guess what? I too burnt 10 gallons of fuel…

        DC was always a weird place.Flat out freaky wierd IMO. IMO weirder than Vegas. The museums were of course fantastic. Still DC was never a top tourist attraction. IMO thats because of the freaky vibe. They did a good job of trying to represent but the freaky vibe permeated through. Perhaps its the same in all government seats? Hey i attended DC more than once. I dont need reducation camp- already been- pretty please!

        Now? Razor wire on the perimeter? Interesting theme park twist. Fluffy avoids razor wire. Razor wire is a basic form of communication. I try to listen. Bagram had razor wire. Clear communication in regard to contemplating a visit.

        We are all beggers from our greatest patron our true patron the planet. THAT is a patron worth begging from! No sign needed. Shovel helpful.

  37. Jan says:

    Energy is an equivalent to all kinds of power: technological military, political, genetical and religious superiority. In that moment when the “free oil markets” cannot be kept open because there are supply drops there will be a race to maintain superiority and squeeze out those that can’t.

    This process of concentration cannot be sustainable but will prolong the time to the final crash. How long will be this phase, 20 years or 300 years? Will squeezed out people find a new civilization?

    I am convinced we do not have too little energy on this planet but a just too energy consuming lifestyle. In our minds civilisation means large reichs and cities and big buildings and technology. We believe we emancipated from animal beings at the neolithic revolution and developed since.

    This is false. We are animals like before and not very intelligent species. Wild animals survive even under the enormous pressure of human civilisation. Being an animal we could do the same – if not nuclear waste destroys our chances as an animal that need long cycles to grow up. If we had a lifespan of 5 years only due to radiation we would certainly not be human anymore.

    The world energy resources are concentrated on four spots: Venezuela, Saudi-Arabia, Iran/Irak and the Caspian Sea. In times of shortness producers can decide to whom to sell. The powerful developed areas are the US, Europe, China and perhaps Russia. Without energy their superiority would easily faint. On the other hand there is nothing the oil producers could not produce themselves. Currently Russia exports energy to Germany and imports Mercedes and trucks in return. For Russia it is possible to live without Mercedes and drive Lada instead, for Germany it is not possible to produce its own energy. Russia is in a better position. Venezuela and the middle east may be unable to produce Ladas themselves – perhaps because they are always bombed back into the Middleages -, but in fact it should be no problem to attract the needed knowhow.

    That is why I expect a coming war. The USA, China and Europe will try to get their share of the energy cake as long as they still have superiority. To attack Venezuela the USA will probably need to fight with Russia and China, there is no way out to avoid a world war. In this Europe will try to get domination over the Black Sea to transport the oil from the Caspian Sea securely, the USA will want to develop the Venezolan fields, China will get its share from the Caspian Sea and Iran and Africa from Saudi-Arabia.

    After a war lifestandards and populations will be down. There will be still a lot of oil. The point is how much for how long. The beginning 19th century had coal production and technology but much less complexity. Maybe that is a way to go for another 100 or 200 years?

    In my eyes also the Covid crisis serves in this plan. Remember that energy is consumed in about three equal shares: industry production and delivery, households, and individual mobility. Which one would you cut, if you had to? Individual mobility, isn’t it? That is exactly what the lockdowns do! And we all know, 2019 was peaoil and the IEA had announced supply chrunches to come for 2020.

    The political turmoil of Covid also helps to put out a competitor. Let’s call it not the “Arab spring” but the “European spring”.

    • You make some points I agree with, and some points I am not really convinced about.

      I very much agree with

      “Energy is an equivalent to all kinds of power: technological military, political, genetical and religious superiority.”

      I sort of agree with,

      “In that moment when the “free oil markets” cannot be kept open because there are supply drops there will be a race to maintain superiority and squeeze out those that can’t.”

      It seems like poor countries are already being squeezed out by high oil prices and falling currencies. I suppose that if there aren’t “free oil markets” (for example, derivatives market freezes up), there may indeed be a different kind of physical contest to assert control over what oil is available. Given the technical expertise required and the supply chains from around the world, I am not convinced that there is very much oil available for extraction that is really available.

      You say, “there is nothing the oil producers could not produce themselves.”

      Physical goods and services require a huge number of inputs, such as minerals (iron, copper, lithium, fresh water) in addition to energy. There also have to be factories to make the goods, and consumers have to have a way of paying for all of these goods. There need to be distribution systems as well, including stores and workers in stores. Putting all of these things together is not at all easy. I cannot see Venezuela doing this, for example, even with the help of another country.”

      I agree that lockdowns are a way of reducing local transport fuel. They also reduce the total quantities of goods consumed since, less food is wasted when people eat at home and people need fewer fancy clothes if they travel less and go to fewer celebrations. So they have a double benefit. The second part of this especially affects the poorer countries that make many of these clothes.

      I am also afraid that we are headed for a kind of “European spring.”

    • Sergey says:

      I do not agree, what covid will somehow serve to lower energy consumption in medium term. That is why. Current economy (before covid) was like constantly moving conveyor, producing product A from parts (B,C,D,…) so the producer of product A doesn’t require to stockpile parts of B,C,D as it receives them just before using them in product A. Now chains are broken, so producer of product A needs warehouses & workers just to stockpile parts B,C,D so the production cost goes up, energy consumption goes up. And to restart everything to initial state requires a lot more energy to spend.

  38. Fast Eddy says:

    Midwin Charles: 47-year-old MSNBC legal analyst dead one month after experimental mRNA shot

    https://thecovidblog.com/2021/04/07/midwin-charles-47-year-old-cnn-msnbc-legal-analyst-dead-one-month-after-experimental-mrna-shot/

  39. Fast Eddy says:

    Then of course there’s Ms. Wendy Williams. The television talk show host was apparently talked into the injections to keep her job that was recorded in New York. She’s been absent from her show since September, with all kinds of rumors swirling around about what happened. Mr. Michael Granata suffered profusely after all of his internal organs swelled up to the point of dysfunction after one Moderna shot. He died in a hospital ten weeks later.

    https://thecovidblog.com/2022/01/19/adrienne-pan-43-year-old-cbc-edmonton-radio-host-disappears-from-social-media-for-months-dead-after-post-moderna-serious-illness/

  40. Fast Eddy says:

    Adrienne Pan: 43-year-old CBC Edmonton radio host disappears from social media for months, dead after post-Moderna “serious illness”

    A 43-year-old Canadian radio broadcaster is dead in what sounds like an extremely unpleasant, prolonged death.

    Mrs. Adrienne Pan received her first Moderna mRNA injection on April 21. She posted the proverbial band-aid on the arm photo to both Twitter and Instagram that day. Mrs. Pan disclosed that she had a preexisting pulmonary embolism (blood clot in the lung), which should have immediately disqualified her from all of these injections. Instead doctors told her she is ineligible for the AstraZeneca shots, but should be fine with Pfizer or Moderna.

    She posted a GIF on May 6 that says “I’m a hottie with antibodies.” The caption reads, “All the millennial COVID-19 vaccine happiness going on in [Alberta] right now is just a darn delight.”

    Mrs. Pan replied to a tweet suggesting people prefer Pfizer over Moderna on May 22. She wrote that Moderna is 92% effective, and that she’s “excited” to get her second injection soon.

    News broke on Monday that Mrs. Pan passed away on January 15 after “battling a serious illness for months.” There’s been no information released at all about what exactly happened. But it sounds like she was in the hospital for quite some time. Coincidentally or otherwise, she disappeared from social media and the radio right around the time she was to receive her second injection.

    https://thecovidblog.com/2022/01/19/adrienne-pan-43-year-old-cbc-edmonton-radio-host-disappears-from-social-media-for-months-dead-after-post-moderna-serious-illness/

    hahahahahahaha…. read the whole thing… it’s incredibly FUNNY.

    https://thecovidblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Adrienne-Pan-Moderna2.png

    https://thecovidblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Adrienne-Pan-Moderna3.png

  41. Fast Eddy says:

    Portugal logs highest daily COVID-19 deaths in 10 months

    http://www.news.cn/english/20220115/2de336b16b67423d8c04672b0c3b741d/c.html

  42. Fast Eddy says:

    mild

    Quebec reports 88 more COVID-19 deaths as hospitalizations top 3,425

    https://globalnews.ca/news/8523337/quebec-covid19-jan-19-2022/

  43. Mike Roberts says:

    I was recently recommended this book:


    Life after Fossil Fuels
    A Reality Check on Alternative Energy

    Has anyone read it and can recommend it? It’s quite expensive so would like some input before deciding to shell out a lot of money on it.

    • Adam says:

      Alice has a blog its called energyskeptic where she posts articles and studies on various aspects of our predicament. She’s been a commentator in this space for some time and has been on a few podcasts. She also has a book when the trucks stop running looking at aspects of our dependence on trucking/diesel fuel.

    • Thierry says:

      I don’t really know her work, though it looks pretty good at first sight. I would be interested to read the pages about farmland soils, which is a neglectd topic by many. Good read if you buy the book!

    • Lossiemouth says:

      I was able to get it through the local library, with some delay. Textbook price but not textbook editing. A good collection of all the standard dilemmas. Summary might be that we are headed for a world made by wood. You could get the ideas on her website energyskeptic.com

    • Alice often has some good insights about things. She isn’t part of the world that is trying to sell everyone on alternative energy. This is part of the “Springer” series, so it is aimed at academic groups. Alice has written a book about Trucking for Prof. Charles Hall’s series of energy books with Springer.

      Alice looks a lot at physical quantities and points out why they cannot be expected to work out as planned. My impression is that what she is doing is pretty much correct. I don’t have enough of a detailed background in these things to calculate the right amounts myself.

      She seems to do what she does to find the correct answers, as best as she can. She can’t possibly be doing this to earn money. She isn’t in academics. I can’t imagine that anyone gives her grants to write these books.

      • DB says:

        Her posts are often very good. However, she also suffers from Trump Derangement Syndrome and frequently blames our various predicaments on her political enemies, seemingly blind to her own otherwise rational analyses.

        • Mike Roberts says:

          Good to know. I’m not really interesting in apportioning blame, though. I think we would have ended up here regardless of the political movements as humans tend to act like humans all of the time.

    • Dennis L. says:

      Purchased it, cheaper on Amazon, always the optimist, keep looking for something that works, can’t hurt.

      So much to read, so few actionable answers.

      Dennis L.

    • A couple of things I figured out about the book:

      One reviewer said he could not get the kindle version to work properly, so get a paper version. I also noticed that Amazon sells the book for about $50 less than Springer.

      • Mike Roberts says:

        Thanks. I did get a free sample for kindle (about 3 chapters worth). It looks pretty good though it seems to overlap a lot with “Bright Green Lies”, which I’m currently reading. Still, it looks good and readable but it’s hard to justify the cost. Maybe there’ll be ways to get it cheaper over the next year.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Life After Vaccines – Australia – A Total Disaster

      Sequel – New Zealand

      hahahahahahaha mike? hahahahahahaha

  44. Fast Eddy says:

    An Otago University epidemiologist says New Zealand needs to move to the Covid-19 Red traffic light setting immediately instead of waiting for an inevitable outbreak of the highly transmissible Omicron variant.

    https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/otago-uni-experts-go-red-make-border-changes-now

  45. Fast Eddy says:

    The “nutcase views” of anti-vaxxers will get no sympathy in Judge David Ruth’s court.
    He told one of them – Kieran Fensom – that “you should be ashamed of yourself”.

    Fensom was appearing in the Christchurch District Court for sentencing on charges of driving with excess breath-alcohol and careless driving.

    Judge Ruth asked what reparations Fensom was able to pay and defence counsel Michaela Brus told him he was able to pay $30 a week but was already paying some other fines.

    She said he was also now unemployed because of the Covid-19 vaccine mandate.

    “You won’t get vaccinated?” Judge Ruth asked Fensom.

    “I have got no sympathy for him,” said the judge, adding that he was putting everyone at risk.

    “These nutcase views will not be accepted in this court. You should be ashamed of yourself,” said Judge Ruth.

    He convicted Fensom, fined him $400 and disqualified him from driving for six months.

    On the careless driving charge, he ordered Fensom to pay reparations of $2000 at weekly instalments of $30, beginning next week.

    https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/nutcase-views-judge-critical-unemployed-anti-vaxxer

    • Wet My Beak says:

      Shows you the calibre of people on the court benches is sad backward new zealand. Monkeys.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Even mike could be a judge in NZ .. supreme court

        If a former DJ who never had a real job is PM… anything is possible

  46. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    This is for Fast Eddy and his Vacx Kick

    INSIDER
    An anti-vax Czech singer died after she intentionally caught COVID-19 in an attempt to get a health pass
    Matthew Loh
    Wed, January 19, 2022, 11:10 PM·3 min read
    A group photo of the folk band Asonance
    Hana Horka (leftmost in bottom row) died on Sunday after she caught COVID-19 from her son and husband.Asonance
    Czech folk singer Hana Horká died after deliberately catching COVID-19 from her family, her son said.

    She wanted to get a health pass so she could visit social and dining areas without being vaccinated.

    Her son blames anti-vax groups for his mother’s trust in natural immunity and subsequent death.

    A folk singer from the Czech Republic has died after intentionally contracting COVID-19 so she could get a health pass to access sports, entertainment, and dining venues.

    Hana Horká, 57, a vocalist for folk band Asonance, was unvaccinated and died on Sunday, her son Jan Rek told Czech radio news outlet iRozhlas.cz.

    He said his mother deliberately caught the coronavirus from him and his father, both of whom contracted COVID over Christmas but had previously received their vaccines. Horká chose not to isolate from her family but to “live normally” together, Rek said.

    “She decided that she would rather have the disease than be vaccinated,” Rek said.

    Horká’s aim was to get a recovery pass, a proof of recent infection that allows unvaccinated people to visit venues like bars, pubs, restaurants, cinemas, and sports facilities.

    Two days before her death, she posted on Facebook that she was recovering from COVID-19 and planned to attend a concert, go to the theater, visit a sauna, and have a swim.

    Hahahaha 😆🤣…what comes around goes around bro

  47. Fast Eddy says:

    Hurrah

    Coronavirus Hong Kong: education authorities suspend classes in secondary schools from Monday after students swept up in current outbreak

    The government has also announced that children as young as five can start receiving Sinovac’s Covid-19 vaccine on Friday, and BioNTech’s jab from February 16

    Meanwhile, an untraceable infection in Kwai Chung suggests signs of further community transmission, with an overnight lockdown there turning up a preliminary-positive case

    https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3164032/coronavirus-hong-kong-education-authorities-weigh?module=lead_hero_story&pgtype=homepage

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