2022: Energy limits are likely to push the world economy into recession

In my view, there are three ways a growing economy can be sustained:

  1. With a growing supply of cheap-to-produce energy products, matched to the economy’s energy needs.
  2. With growing debt and other indirect promises of future goods and services, such as rising asset prices.
  3. With growing complexity, such as greater mechanization of processes and supply lines that extend around the world.

All three of these approaches are reaching limits. The empty shelves some of us have been seeing recently are testimony to the fact that complexity is reaching a limit. And the growth in debt looks increasingly like a bubble that can easily be popped, perhaps by rising interest rates.

In my view, the first item listed is critical at this time: Is the supply of cheap-to-produce energy products growing fast enough to keep the world economy operating and the debt bubble inflated? My analysis suggests that it is not. There are two parts to this problem:

[a] The cost of producing fossil fuels and delivering them to where they are needed is rising rapidly because of the effects of depletion. This higher cost cannot be passed on to customers, without causing recession. Politicians will act to keep prices low for the benefit of consumers. Ultimately, these low prices will lead to falling production because of inadequate reinvestment to offset depletion.

[b] Non-fossil fuel energy products are not living up to the expectations of their developers. They are not available when they are needed, where they are needed, at a low enough cost for customers. Electricity prices don’t rise high enough to cover their true cost of production. Subsidies for wind and solar tend to drive nuclear electricity out of business, leaving an electricity situation that is worse, rather than better. Rolling blackouts can be expected to become an increasing problem.

In this post, I will explore the energy-related issues that are contributing to the recessionary trends that the world economy is facing, starting later in 2022.

[1] World oil supplies are unlikely to rise very rapidly in 2022 because of depletion and inadequate reinvestment. Even if oil prices rise higher in the first part of 2022, this action cannot offset years of underinvestment.

Figure 1. Crude oil and liquids production quantities through 2020 based on EIA data. “IEA Estimate” adds IEA indicated increases in 2021 and 2022 to historical EIA liquids estimates. Tverberg Estimate relates to crude oil production.

The IEA, in its Oil Market Report, December 2021, forecasts a 6.4-million-barrel increase in world oil production in 2022 over 2021. Indications through September of 2021 strongly suggest that there was only a small rebound (about 1 million bpd) in the world’s oil production in 2021 compared to 2020. In my view, the IEA’s view that liquids production will increase by a huge 6.4 million barrels a day between 2021 and 2022 defies common sense.

The basic reason why oil production is low is because oil prices have been too low for producers since about 2012. Companies have had to cut back on developing new fields in higher cost areas because oil prices have not been high enough to justify such investments. For example, producers from shale formations could add new wells outside the rapidly depleting “core” regions if the oil price were much higher, perhaps $120 to $150 per barrel. But US WTI oil prices averaged only $57 per barrel in 2019, $39 per barrel in 2020, and $68 per barrel in 2021, so this new investment has not been started.

Recently, oil prices have been over $80 per barrel, but even this is considered too high by politicians. For example, countries are releasing oil from their strategic oil reserves to try to force oil prices down. The reason why politicians are interested in low oil prices is because if the price of oil rises, both the price of food and the cost of commuting are likely to rise, since oil is used in farming and in commuting. Inflation is likely to become a problem, making citizens unhappy. Wages will go less far, and politicians who allow high oil prices will be voted out of office.

[2] Natural gas production can be expected to rise by 1.6% in 2022, but this small increase will not be enough to meet the needs of the world economy.

Figure 2. Natural gas production though 2020 based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. For 2020 and 2021, Tverberg estimates reflect increases similar to IEA indications, so only one indication is shown.

With natural gas production growing at a little less than 2% per year, a major issue is that there is not enough natural gas to “go around.” Natural gas is the smallest of the fossil fuels in quantity. We are depending on its growth to solve many problems, simultaneously:

  • To increase natural gas imports for countries whose own production is declining
  • To provide quick relief from inadequate production by wind turbines and solar panels, whenever such relief is needed
  • To offset declining coal consumption related to a combination of issues (depletion, high pollution, climate change concerns)
  • To help increase world electricity supply, as transportation and other processes are gradually electrified

Furthermore, the rate at which natural gas supply increases cannot easily be speeded up because (a) the development of new fields, (b) the development of transportation structures (pipeline or Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) ships), and (c) the development of storage facilities all require major upfront expenditures. All of these must be planned years in advance. They require huge amounts of resources of many kinds. The selling price of natural gas must be high enough to cover all of the resource and labor costs. For those familiar with the concept of Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI), the basic problem is that the delivered EROEI falls too low when all of the many parts of the system are considered.

Storage is extremely important for natural gas because fluctuations tend to occur in the quantity of natural gas the overall system requires. For example, if stored natural gas is available, it can be used when wind turbines are not producing enough electricity. Also, a huge amount of energy is needed in winter to keep homes warm and to keep the lights on. If sufficient natural gas can be stored for months at a time, it can help provide this additional energy.

As a gas, natural gas is difficult to store. In practice, underground caverns are used for storage, assuming caverns of the right type are available. Trying to build storage, if such caverns are not available, is almost certainly an expensive undertaking. In theory, importing natural gas by pipeline or LNG can transfer the storage problem to LNG producers. This is not a satisfactory solution, however. Without adequate storage available to sellers, this means that natural gas can be extracted for only part of the year and LNG ships can only be used for part of the year. As a result, return on investment is likely to be poor.

Now, in 2022, we are hitting the issue of very slowly rising natural gas production head-on in many parts of the world. Countries that import natural gas without long-term contracts are facing spiking prices. Countries in Europe and Asia are especially affected. The United States has mostly been isolated from the spiking prices thanks to producing its own natural gas. Also, only a small portion of the natural gas produced by the US is exported (9% in 2020).

The reason for the small export percentage is because shipping natural gas as LNG tends to be very expensive. Long-distance LNG shipping only makes economic sense if there is a several dollar (or more) price differential between the buyer’s price and the seller’s costs that can be used to cover the high transport costs.

We now seem to be reaching a period of spiking natural gas prices, especially for countries importing natural gas without long-term contracts. If natural gas prices rise, this will tend to make electricity prices rise because natural gas is often burned to produce electricity. Products made with high-priced electricity will be less competitive in a world market. Individual citizens will become unhappy with their high cost of heat and light.

High natural gas prices can have very adverse consequences. In areas with high prices, products made using natural gas as a raw material will tend to be squeezed out. One such product is urea, used as a nitrogen fertilizer. With less nitrogen fertilizer available, food production is likely to fall. If food prices rise in response to short supply, consumers will tend to reduce discretionary spending to ensure that there are sufficient funds for food. A reduction in discretionary spending is one way recession starts.

Inadequate growth in world natural gas production can be expected to hit poor countries especially hard. For example, a recent article mentions LNG suppliers backing out of planned deliveries of LNG to Pakistan, given the high prices available elsewhere. Another article indicates that Kosovo, a poor country in Europe, is experiencing rolling blackouts. Eventually, if natural gas available for export remains limited in supply, electricity blackouts can be expected to spread more widely, to less poor parts of Europe and around the world.

[3] World coal production can be expected to decline, further pushing the world economy toward recession.

Figure 3 shows my estimate for world coal production, next to a recent IEA forecast.

Figure 3. Coal production through 2020 based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. “IEA Estimate” adds IEA indicated increases to historical BP coal quantities. Tverberg Estimate provides lower estimates for 2021 and 2022, considering depletion issues.

Figure 3 shows that world coal consumption has not been rising for about a decade.

Coal seems to be having the same problem with rising costs as oil. The cost of producing the coal is rising because of depletion, but citizens cannot afford to pay more for end products made with coal, such as electricity, steel and solar panels. Coal producers need higher prices to cover their higher costs, but it becomes increasingly difficult to pass these higher costs on to consumers. This is because politicians want to keep electricity prices low to keep their citizens and businesses happy.

If the cost of electricity rises, the cost of goods made with high-priced electricity will tend to rise. Businesses will find their sales falling in response to higher prices. In turn, they will tend to lay off workers. This is a recipe for recession, but a slightly different one than the ones mentioned earlier. It also is a good way for politicians not to get re-elected. As a result, politicians will try to hide rising coal costs from customers. For example, laws may be enacted capping electricity prices that can be charged to customers. Because of this, some electricity companies may be forced out of business.

The decrease in coal production I am showing for 2022 is only 1%, but when this small reduction is combined with the growth problems shown for coal and oil and the rising world population, it means that world coal supplies will be stretched.

China is the world’s largest coal producer and consumer. A major concern is that the country has serious coal depletion problems. It has experienced rolling blackouts since the fall of 2020. It has tried to encourage its own production by limiting coal imports, thus keeping wholesale coal prices high for local producers. It also limits the extent to which high coal costs can be passed on to electricity customers. As a result, the 2021 profits of electricity companies are expected to be reduced.

[4] The US may have some untapped coal resources that could be tapped, if there is a plan to ship more natural gas to Europe and other areas in need of the fuel.

The possibility of additional US coal production occurs because coal production in the US seems to have occurred because of competition from incredibly inexpensive natural gas (Figure 4). To some extent, this low natural gas price results from laws prohibiting oil and gas companies from “flaring” (burning off) natural gas that is too expensive to produce relative to the price it can be sold for. Prohibitions against flaring are a type of mandated subsidy of natural gas production by the oil-producing portion of “Oil & Gas” companies. This required subsidy leads to part of the need for high oil prices, especially for companies drilling in shale formations.

Figure 4. US coal production amounts through 2020 are from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. Amounts for 2021 and 2022 are estimated based on forecasts from EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook. Natural gas prices are average annual Henry Hub spot prices per million Btus, based on EIA data.

A major reason why US coal extraction started to decline about 2009 is because a very large amount of shale gas production started becoming available then as a byproduct of oil production from shale. Oil producers were primarily interested in extracting oil because it (hopefully) sold for a high price. Natural gas was a byproduct whose collection was barely economic, given its low selling price. Also, the economy didn’t have uses, such as trucks powered by natural gas, for all of this extra natural gas production. Figure 4 suggests that wholesale natural gas prices dropped by close to half, in response to this extra supply.

With these low natural gas prices, as well as coal pollution concerns, a significant amount of US electricity production was switched from coal to natural gas. It is my view that this change left coal in the ground, potentially for later use. Thus, if natural gas prices rise again, US coal production could perhaps rise again. The catch, of course, is that many coal-fired electricity-generating plants in the US have been taken out of service. In addition, coal mines have been closed. Any increase in future coal production would likely take place very slowly because of the need for many simultaneous changes.

[5] On a combined basis, using Tverberg Estimates for 2021 and 2022, fossil fuel production in total takes a step down in 2020 and doesn’t rise much in 2021 and 2022.

Figure 5. Sum of Tverberg Estimates related to oil, coal, and natural gas. Oil includes natural gas liquids but not biofuels. Historical amounts are from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Figure 5 shows that on a combined basis, the overall energy being provided by fossil fuels is likely to remain lower in 2021 and 2022 than it was in 2018 and 2019. This is concerning, because the economy cannot go back to its 2019 level of “openness” and optional travel for sightseers, without a big step up in energy supply, especially for oil.

This same figure shows that the production of the three fossil fuels is somewhat similar in quantity: Oil is the highest, coal is second, and natural gas comes in third. However, oil shows a step down in 2020’s production from which it has not recovered. Coal shows a smoother pattern of rise and eventual fall. So far, natural gas has mostly been rising, but not very steeply in recent years.

[6] Alternatives to fossil fuels are not living up to early expectations. Electricity from wind turbines and solar panels is not available when it is needed, requiring a great deal of back-up electricity generated by fossil fuels or nuclear. The total quantity of non-fossil fuel electricity is far too low. A transition now will simply lead to electricity blackouts and recession.

Figure 6 shows a summary of non-fossil fuel energy production for the years 2000 through 2020, without a projection to 2022. For clarification, wind and solar are part of the electrical renewables category.

Figure 6. World energy production for various categories, based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Figure 6 shows that nuclear electricity production has been declining at the same time that the production of electrical renewables has been increasing. In fact, a significant decrease in nuclear electricity is planned in Europe in 2022. This reduction in nuclear electricity is part of what is causing the concern about electricity supply for Europe for 2022.

The addition of wind and solar to an electrical grid seems to encourage the closure of nuclear electricity plants, even if they have many years of safe production still ahead of them. This happens because wind and solar are given the subsidy of “going first,” if they happen to have electricity available. Wind and solar may also be subsidized in other ways.

The net result of this arrangement is that wholesale electricity prices set through competitive markets quite frequently fall too low for other electricity producers (apart from wind and solar). For example, wind and solar electricity that is produced during weekends may be unneeded because many businesses are closed. Electricity produced by wind and solar in the spring and fall may be unneeded because heating and cooling needs tend to be low at these times of the year. Wind and solar electricity providers are not asked to cut back supply because their production is unneeded; instead, low (or negative) prices encourage other electricity producers to cut back supply.

Nuclear electricity producers are particularly adversely affected by this pricing arrangement because they cannot save money by cutting back their output when wind and solar are over-producing electricity, relative to demand. This strange pricing arrangement leads to unacceptably low profits for many nuclear electricity providers. They may voluntarily choose to be closed. Local governments find that if they want to keep their nuclear electricity producers, they need to subsidize them.

Wind and solar, with their subsidies, tend to look more profitable to investors, even though they cannot support the economy without a substantial amount of supplementary electricity production from other electricity providers, which, perversely, they are driving out of business through their subsidized pricing structure.

The fact that wind and solar cannot be depended upon has become increasingly obvious in recent months, as coal, natural gas and electricity prices have spiked in Europe because of low wind production. In theory, coal and natural gas imports should make up the shortfall, at a reasonable price. But total volumes available for import have not been increasing in the quantities that consumers need them to increase. And, as mentioned above, nuclear electricity production is increasingly unavailable as well.

[7] The total quantity of non-fossil fuel energy supplies is not very large, relative to the quantity of fossil fuel energy. Even if these non-fossil fuel energy supplies increase at a trend rate similar to that in the recent past, they do not make up for the projected fossil fuel production deficit.

Figure 7. Total energy production, based on the fossil fuel estimates in Figure 5 together with non-fossil fuels in Figure 6.

With respect to anticipated future non-fossil fuel electricity generation, one issue is how much nuclear is being shut off. I would imagine these current closure schedules could change, if countries become aware that they may be facing rolling blackouts without nuclear.

A second issue is the growing awareness that renewables don’t really work as intended. Why add more if they don’t really work?

A third issue is new studies suggesting that prices being paid for locally generated electricity may be too generous. Based on such an analysis, California is proposing a major reduction to its payments for renewable-generated electricity, starting July 1, 2022. This type of change could reduce new installations of solar panels on homes in California. Other locations may decide to make similar changes.

I have shown two estimates of future non-fossil fuel energy supply in Figure 7. The high estimate reflects a 4.5% annual increase in the total supply, in line with recent past increases for the group in total. The lower one assumes that 2021 production is similar to that in 2020 (because of more nuclear being closed, for example). Production for 2022 represents a 5% decrease from 2021’s production.

Regardless of which assumption is made, growth in non-fossil fuel electricity supply is not very important in the overall total. The world economy is still mostly powered by fossil fuels. The share of non-fossil fuels relative to total energy ranges from 16% to 18% in 2020, based on my low and high estimates.

[8] The energy narrative we are being told is mostly the narrative that politicians would like us to believe, rather than the narrative that historians and physicists would develop.

Politicians would like us to believe that we live in a world of everlasting economic growth and that the only thing we should fear is climate change. They base their analyses on models by economists who seem to think that an “invisible hand” will fix all problems. The economy can always grow; enough fossil fuels and other resources will always be available. Governments seem to be able to print money; somehow, this money will be transformed into physical goods and services. With these assumptions, the only problems are distant ones that central banks and carbon taxes can handle.

The realists are historians and physicists. They tell us that a huge number of past economies have collapsed when their populations attempted to grow at the same time that their resource bases were depleting. These realists tell us that there is a high probability that our current economy will eventually collapse, as well.

Figure 8. The Seneca Cliff by Ugo Bardi

The general shape that economic growth is likely to take is that of a “Seneca Curve” or “Seneca Cliff.” In the words of Lucius Annaeus Seneca in the first century CE, “Increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid.” If we think of the amount graphed as the total quantity of goods and services received by citizens, the amount tends to rise slowly, gradually plateaus and then falls.

We now seem to be encountering lower energy supply while population continues to rise. It takes energy for any activity that we think of as contributing to GDP to occur. We should not be surprised if we are at the edge of a recession. If we cannot get our energy problems solved, the downturn could be very long-lasting.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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4,903 Responses to 2022: Energy limits are likely to push the world economy into recession

  1. hillcountry says:

    Hidden Markov Respector at Substack

    “A few days ago, I published a long-form post that went into some detail about some likely reasons why deeply-vaxxed people appear to be variants’ favorite food. Indeed, much to the consternation of the fearful good-citizen Left, obeisant sheep herded to the jab and no doubt triple-masked, they and their pals seem to be coming down with coof in record numbers. Included in my treatise was a lengthier-than-normal discussion of T-cell memory and why the Spike-only multi-injection regime (not “vaccination”) that has been thrust upon us is quite incapable of generating the “robust” (God, they love that word for some reason) long-term immunity that is protective against variants.”

    “At some level, the vaxx enthusiasts, the planners at the top, behave erratically and stupidly but in fact they are not ALL stupid. Some have had some tradscience exposure and a moment to reflect on what has transpired over two years now, especially on a molecular level, and they see the ocean quickly retreating at their feet. This is a bad sign for them and they know it.

    They know where the main unsupportable logical hole is in all of their pronouncements about “efficacy” and “reducing severe disease, hospitalization, and death.” It is their gross (accidental?) over-commitment to B-cell (humoral) aka immunoglobulin (Ig) immunity over cellular immunity, the immunity of T-cell mediated death of the infected cell population. Making T-cells focus on this virum was the plan. They thought they could induce it. They failed. Now they want you to think they nailed it. They will go to any lengths to protect the idea that they have handled this well, climbdown the claims, and attempt to keep the pitchforks and [other things] at bay when it becomes clear how ridiculously they ruined and continue to ruin this life of ours.”

    • jj says:

      Can any individual truly be called a VAX enthusiast without at least one course of every western brands injection both DNA and MRNA? How could one appreciate the merits and subtleties in tone and effect without full exposure to every one of the injections genre? Sinopharm and Sputnik V also for the true connoisseur with a bit of globe hopping! Mr. Young quit your musical complaining/censorship and show us how its done!

    • Testing a new idea worldwide, when there was really no evidence that it would work as hoped was a crazy idea. But it did earn a lot of money for a few companies.

  2. Fast Eddy says:

    4th shot coming

    The government is ramping up the rollout of fourth Covid-19 shots to residents of ten provinces, mostly tourist destinations, ahead of Feb 1 border reopening.


    Can anyone remember what Bossche said about boosters?

  3. CTG says:

    Humans have difficulty understanding exponential. The other is relativity.

    Let us say in an exam, your score for that subject is 70%. Is it good? In a non-competitive school where everyone fails, then 70% is godly. If it is in a hyper-competitive school where the last one in the class scores 90%, then 70% is seriously bad.

    Like the saying “In the land of the blind, the one-eye man is the king”.

    So, is Omicron mild? Practically all humans, who believed in MSM or refuses to use their brain will say it is mild because the newspaper said so.

    If I were to spread Omicron among the healthiest people on earth, I would believe that perhaps it is just sniffles. If I were to spread it in a hospital ward housing the immune-compromised patients, probably all will be dead.

    I keep telling reading comments and hearing people say that Omicron is mild. It is just like me saying I am rich but how rich is rich?

    1. If Omicron is man-made, is there a payload? delayed payload?
    2. All the vaxxed are already immune-compromised. So, it is NOT mild to them.
    3. Variants are coming by the dozens practically everywhere in the world.

    Let us now forget about the adverse effects of the vaccine. You have medical issues related

    1. COVID itself
    2. COVID variants due to mutation and immune escape (OAS/ADE)
    3. Suppressed immunity due to vaccination. This causes latent virus/bacteria to flare up.
    4. The adverse effects itself including cancer/autoimmune. It may also include CJD (caused by misfolded proteins)

    Plus the hospital staff leaving their job or being fired.

    You have a perfect storm

  4. Here is the full hearing conducted by Sen Ron Johnson yesterday
    “2nd Opinion on Covid19” — Early Treatment Emphasis/Vaccinie Problems/Medical Suppression


    hearing starts at ~40:30 into the recording

    I posted link yesterday to the live session and see that a few people have posted snippets
    This full recording available for playback is very long, but many impassioned and too many portions that might speak to different people to do justice with an attempt at summary. Quite a number of the Doctors are close to tears as they speak of the either patients they weren’t allowed to treat or potential loss of lives due to vaccination of children who are at little or no risk of covid but have been or will be killed by vaccine. Testimonials to the assualt upon Doctors by threats against their licenses or employement. Frontline Doctors & nurses of the opinion that corporate takeover of adminstration of hospitals and brainless adherence to ineffective & deleterious protocols are turning hospitals into killing fields for corporate profit.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      This is not about corporate profit … consider all the other corporate profits that have been decimated by this… why are they speaking out?

      • At the Hospital level or the level of the Pharma Corps – their motivation or willingness to go along with the travesties is profit – If there is the higher level of CEP or Marxist plotting or Elite/Singularity or beauracratic incompetency then top level control by limited numbers with conscious direction (or unconscious malign side-effect) they are either causing deaths to reduce population to managable levels for a “designed level” or they are looking to take the “easy way out” al la Jim Jones and the koolaide path for us all!

        You ask me to answer “why are they speaking out?” – well either they are sincere, critical thinking, professionals who are trying to do the correct thing and save lives or there is the other possibility they are controlled opposition or a mixture of the two.

        If they are controlled opposition (Dr Malone seems likely in this regard given the tone and direction of his comments) then for what purpose? Perhaps there has been enough projected kill off and long term death “innoculation/acceleration” via vaccination among the elderly, weak and compliant as well as strong identification of the non-compliant, critical thinking and oppositional individuals that could potentially counter whatever plan might be under direction. Certainly a Mareks type situation could emerge under vaccine strategies with current strains (lower probablity) or be forced via release of a more pathenogenic and transmissible strain. Either way that would bypass a fraction of the vaccinated (preserving a reduced population for later control) and wreak wholesale destruction among the unvaccinated via Marek type mechanisms. This group speaking out could facilitate this by reinforcing mistrust amonst unvaccinated of Doctor, Hospitals etc thus assuring greater mortality in face of a true pandemic. I see little chance of a plot line to only wipe out those willing to vaccinate and preserving the non-compliant anti-vaxxers, but I guess very small probablity someone might look to go that route of Eugenic selection of what they deem the fittest of the species.

        I post this because either way, while I know you believe that CEP is compassionate, I would much rather see humans go through the face-ripping if that is the consequence of our civilizational mistakes. Not out of some enjoyment of observing horrors or sick inflicting of pain, but out of optimism that some fraction will survive (fuel ponds non-withstanding) and that humans only, and then rarely, learn from their mistakes when it involves significant pain. Alternatively, they evolve (without concious learning) by selection of those that can adapt to the envrionmental changes and challenges presented (saw recent paper that talked about evolution/mutation not as some slow semi-constant process as commonly thought but as a burst of rapid genetic changes forced by environmental challenges.)

        However as these Doctors included in their ethical points – whatever “procedure” is going on now – it should only be done with Informed Consent of all those involved. If our leaders think we need population reduction now – then that should be out in the open and allow for the vigorous “debate” that will ensue. So even if these people are saying the right things for the wrong reasons, I am all for them speaking out and people knowing what the truth is (to the extent that is possible) and letting them make their choices and ultimately societies’ choices on that basis.s

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Correction – why are they NOT speaking out?

          All these CEOs all these shareholders who own these companies that are getting crushed – why are they saying nothing – if Big Pharma can so easily buy the media why can’t other industries? The hotel and airline industry is massive … nothing… not a peep.

          Why is every country on board – both incumbents and opposition. Why are countries run by dictators on board? They do whatever they want – they are dictators.

          This is because the CEP was hatched at the very highest levels — the orders are coming directly from the Elders… and ultimately every leader is on board with this because it is the right thing to do.

          I don’t mind if they fail although I may live to regret that if someone rips my face off… but humans do not deserve to be compassionately put down… humans are vile cruel beasts…

          I am quite happy to see them suffer before they go extinct. I am quite happy for them to murder and torture and rape and pillage and roast each other over fires fuelled by tyres.

          It would be a fitting end.

    • Thanks for posting this link for others to see.

  5. Fast Eddy says:

    And following this protest the UK announces they are halting the Booster Program effective immediately



    • Fast Eddy says:

      If we MASS vaccinate using vaccine that does NOT sterilize the virus, while there is ongoing massive infectious pressure, & while population immunity is mounting, then natural selection will factor in

      This has been the fear of GVBossche and he has been correct, and I too call on the vaccination to stop immediately as natural selection will select for highly infectious mutants as it is NOW!


      Hahahaha… we are entering The Kill Zone

  6. Fast Eddy says:

    “Latest case rates by vaccination status show that double dosed have rates per 100,000 three times higher than unvaccinated” – Dr. Clare Craig has crunched the numbers.


    norm >>> why?

  7. Fast Eddy says:

    Government Scraps Covid Tests for Travel – But Only For the Vaccinated, Despite Government Data Showing the Vaccinated Have Higher Infection Rates


    Why norm?

  8. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Trucker Convoy day two is rollin’!

  9. Michael Le Merchant says:

    LA Unified mask policy: Students to wear non-cloth face masks

    Starting Monday, students must wear “well-fitted, non-cloth masks with a nose wire” at all times, including outdoors, the district announced.

    Higher grade masks will be made available to students upon request, the announcement said.

    The shift away from cloth masks was prompted by guidance from Los Angeles County health authorities, said Shannon Haber, a spokeswoman for LAUSD.

  10. Rodster says:

    Wow, talk about wasting energy. Depending how China is cooking the books it cost them between $36 – $116 trillion. You know those empty buildings are just rotting away.


  11. Fast Eddy says:

    Look at the level of security that the almighty J’ASSinda has — worthy of this backwards dung heap… the security team consists of pie-eating moreons who in their free time make spending money injecting children…

    What a joke:


    • Wet My Beak says:

      Pure evil manifesting in the earthy form of a diseased donkey.

      Pray for us!

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Clarke reportedly has the former nanny living in the garage in a gimp box… and he cut a deal with J’ASSinda to share her … that resulted in Peaceful Co-Existence… for now

  12. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Indonesia’s coal ban sends prices soaring, other exporters fail to step up: Russell

    The supply crunch is being exacerbated by the inability of some major exporters, such as Russia and South Africa, to boost their shipments, with only Australia likely to ship more coal in January than it did in December.

    Indonesia is on track to export 17.7 million tonnes of coal in January, according to vessel-tracking and port data compiled by commodity consultants Kpler.

    This will be some 43% below December’s 31.29 million tonnes and the weakest month since Kpler starting compiling data in January 2017.

    Australia’s exports of all grades of coal are expected by Kpler to be around 31.29 million tonnes in January, up from December’s 29.74 million and the highest since September last year.

    But much of the gain in Australia’s exports in January is likely to be for coking coal used to make steel, rather than thermal coal for power plants.

    Australia’s thermal coal shipments are likely to be around 17.22 million tonnes in January, up just 380,000 tonnes from December’s 16.84 million, according to Kpler.

    Russia’s coal exports are estimated at 9.70 million tonnes in January, down from 13.23 million in December, while South Africa is forecast to export 4.5 million tonnes in January, down from 5.43 million the previous month.

    The shipping data makes it clear that coal supply issues extend beyond Indonesia and the other major exporters, Australia excepted, have been unable to take advantage of the shortage created by Jakarta’s ban.

  13. Fast Eddy says:

    All you need to know about Covid vaccine failure in one chart
    Courtesy of the good people at the Statens Serum Institut in Denmark


    The Danes insist that they have not had enough boosters … they just need a few more

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “Now Denmark – 95 percent adult vaccinated, 65 percent boosted Denmark – HAS MORE COVID HOSPITALIZATIONS NOW THAN IT DID BEFORE A SINGLE DANE RECEIVED A SINGLE MRNA VACCINE. AND THE VAST MAJORITY OF THOSE PEOPLE ARE VACCINATED. Even boosters have done nothing to reverse the trend.”
      “If that’s vaccine success, I’d hate to see failure.”

      trust the science.

      and just think, this is only year 2 of the 5 year trial to see the long term effects of the vaccines.

      there is some possibility of large scale disease and death caused by these vaccines, and this could be TB outbreaks along with almost any other infectious disease, as well as deadly stuff such as prion disease and cancers.

      in this 5 year trial, there are 2 groups: the vaccinated group and the control group.

      I’m in the control group.

      the absolutely positively wiser choice.

  14. Fast Eddy says:


    Attached are some recent papers on SARS-CoV-2 in mink, mice, rats, deer, lions, hamsters, cats, etc. There have also been headlines about hamsters in a Hong Kong pet store testing positive.

    In one of your first letters, I recalled you saying: “It’s certainly also worth mentioning that mutations in the S protein (i.e., exactly the same protein that is subject to selection of escape mutations) are known to enable Coronaviruses to cross species barriers.”

    What is the role of this wide variety of animal reservoirs in the future of the pandemic? How significant are the selective pressures of these different host environments on the evolution of the virus? Is this something to be concerned about?



    Animal reservoirs will increase the spectrum of highly infectious variants the virus can choose from when put under massive S-directed immune pressure. Omicron has already become largely resistant to S-directed immune pressure but mass vaccination against Omicron would of course revert that situation. The more variants exist (including animal-derived variants), the more readily the virus could select a variant candidate that is capable of rapidly* adapting to the vaccinated population upon the latter’s exposure to animal reservoirs.

    * i.e., paying a relatively low fitness cost to resist S-directed immune pressure on Omicron

    More on http://www.voiceforscienceandsolidarity.org

  15. Fast Eddy says:

    Dr. Meryl Nass — Suspended for ‘Spreading Misinformation’ — Tells RFK, Jr. ‘This Has to Stop’


    Hahahaha… maybe if enough people shout ‘This has to Stop!’ over and over… it will stop….

    Hahahahaha… if only the Vietcong had thought of this tactic

    Meanwhile what’s happening with that fire in California?

  16. Fast Eddy says:

    30,000???? hahahahahaha

    They get more than that at some high school football matches in Texas hahahahaha

    Going down without even a whimper


  17. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    Supreme Court’s vaccine mandate ruling means businesses chart their own course
    Charisse Jones and Paul Davidson, USA TODAY
    Mon, January 24, 2022, 2:59 PM·9 min read
    Now that the Supreme Court has blocked enforcement of a federal mandate requiring millions of workers to get the COVID-19 vaccine, businesses must weigh how to move forward.

    Some companies are pressing ahead with a vaccine requirement. Others are putting such mandates on pause, and still others may be breathing a sigh of relief that they don’t have to impose a policy that could turn off prospective hires in a tight job market.

    “They’re all over the map,” says David Miller, a labor and employment attorney with Bryant Miller Olive in Miami

  18. Fast Eddy says:

    Why straight talk about vaccine failure will be even harder to find than straight talk about all the other Covid failures

    Hint: You can throw away your masks, you can open schools, but you can’t unvaccinate.


    Duh…. Alex doesn’t get it… nobody does.

    Once you have vaxxed all that want it … then you want people to spread the virus … cuz that’s how you get Devil Covid (Marek’s)…. you don’t stop the boosters cuz that’s throwing petrol on the fire … and you want that fire to continue to burn brightly to the very end

    It amazes me that nobody sees that this is a strategy… for those who say ‘it’s over’… then ok — stop boosting … not happening – won’t happen

  19. Fast Eddy says:


    call now – misanthropes standing by

  20. Jarle says:

    MSM keep on shouting so and so many infected by Covid but why drag that nonsense into the comment field at OFW? Please: It’s meaningless information, spare us!

  21. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Dr. Peter McCullough delivers an emotional plea on myocarditis

    • Herbie Ficklestein says:

      Thanks for the clip. Unfortunately, his message is not reaching the public at large.
      It’s being swept under for obvious reasons. I was forced to get the jab, waited as long as I could and thankfully up to now have no apparent adverse effects.
      I new this was a scam, but after the CDC approved it for children, what’s the use to protest?
      Found out later it was done for legal exceptions for lawsuits of Big Pharma…the system is utterly corrupt.
      Even with the Supreme Court here in the US stopping the mandates, my employer STILL requires fully vaccinated status because we are a federal contractor!
      From what I see they are working on yearly preventative boosters…of course, the propaganda will be overwhelming of support for such and be critical of those against.
      Good luck in stopping this farce.
      My co workers, for the most part, are brainwashed and no use in talking on the topic

  22. Fast Eddy says:



    • Very Far Frank says:

      I’d like to laugh at that, but I’m honestly not sure whether it’s a joke… Every government seems complicit in Covidiocy.

    • This is utter craziness.

    • Wet My Beak says:

      So funny!

    • drb says:

      We are so lucky there are a bunch of Karens in the US Army now. They are going to pester and bitch those pesky unmasked Russkies until they run back to their motherland. I feel protected.

    • D.Stevens says:

      An easy way to sniff out bots in forums is to be sarcastic without using a /s tag… which is a conspiracy to train bots in sarcasm. Biden and Putin agreed soldiers must scan their QR codes and wear surgical masks over their balaclavas before crossing borders.

  23. Michael Le Merchant says:

    President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko:

    “I suggest you don’t worry. I’ve said to you from the beginning, our sickness is in the mind …. C0VID isn’t dangerous…!”

  24. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Biden calling a reporter a “stupid son of a bitch” after he reportedly asked about inflation.

    • Anna Norseman says:

      Peter Doocy, the White House correspondent for Fox News: “Do you think inflation is a political liability in the midterms?”

      President Biden – sarcastically – “It’s a great asset. More inflation. What a stupid son of a bitch.”

    • Peckish says:

      John McCain 2017 to Peter Doocy: “Why would you say something so stupid? Why would you ask something that dumb?”

      President Biden to Doocy today: “What a stupid son of a bitch”

      Roasting Peter Doocy is a long-standing bipartisan tradition.

  25. Michael Le Merchant says:


  26. Michael Le Merchant says:

    iheartradio online poll results on whether Canadians support the freedom trucker convoy headed to Ottawa to protest against all mandates and restrictions.

  27. Fast Eddy says:

    It is not only the mass vaccination, but in some sense it is those nations that vaccinate aggressively, too quickly, of hundreds of thousands and millions; we are seeing that it is the nations where there is delay, a slower roll out of vaccine, that the infections are not rising as fast and this is very interesting. As if there is ‘learning’ taking place, some form of immunity growing in the unvaccinated population as they are continuously exposed and GVB suggests this. I am unpacking and trying to pull it together to share.

    There is too much vaccinated population and far less population immunity. Very dangerous and we warned, we warned to open up fast. We told them it is the mass vaccination into a pandemic that would cause this, cause variants and massive breakthrough infection, using a vaccine that does not sterilize the virus; thats the key, had it stopped transmission then we would he having a different debate and some chance of success.

    But we can never cut the chain of transmission with a sub-optimal non-sterilizing vaccine, 100% we cannot. And so once we continue to mass vaccinate with ongoing infectious viral pressure onto the population, with simultaneous immune pressure on the spike from the vaccinal antibodies, with a non-sterilizing vaccine, then it is not IF, but WHEN and HOW FAST will natural selection cull forward the most infectious variants that could overcome the mounting immune pressure. We are living it now and seeing it in the UK and Scottish data, and Israeli data etc. Danish data.

    Scotland most up to date data: https://palexander.substack.com/p/devastating-negative-efficacy-booster?

    • drb says:

      This is a good point. Japan was the last one to roll out vaccines, discarded five lots with contained “particles”, and the situation is largely under control. Except on the energy front…

  28. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Attorney Thomas Renz reveals what multiple DoD whistleblowers have provided on the safety of the vaccines

  29. Fast Eddy says:

    DEVASTATING Negative efficacy booster; Public Health Scotland weekly COVID report, table 24, page 38, repost of table but this table is critical & IMO, no great difference between UK and Scotland

    CATASTROPHIC 2nd dose and booster dose, seems in my glean the 2nd dose is devastating, massive infection results, as does with booster; share this…this is the money shot; too much vaccine FAST


    The solution?

    More Boosters hahahaahah

  30. Michael Le Merchant says:

    You think compliance is enough to keep your job?

    Remember, Digital ID passports are the intermediary between mass-vax and enslavement by way of techno-dystopia.

    “Nike fires vaccinated employee after he refuses giving third party his medical info”

  31. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Last month two WestJet pilots were incapacitated on separate flights. One of them collapsed and required a defibrillator while the other was hospitalized upon landing.

    The incidents are currently under investigation.

  32. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Geert Vanden Bossche sounding pretty Doomy

    • Fast Eddy says:

      This is caused by not having enough of the experimental shit coursing through your body… nothing to worry about … just go to the clinic and show the moonlighting grocery store clerk the lumps and ask for More Booster… even if you just had a shot they’ll give it to you because the Ministry of Health allows for discretion if there are lumps

      Feel better norm? hahahaha… reality is about to smash you in the face norm… hahahahaha

      We’ll be thinking of you … when the internet goes… and there is mass wailing in the distance

    • CTG says:

      I have stated here that my close circle of friends and relatives are fine but friends f a friend seems to be bad especially after the boosters. Autoimmune especially.

  33. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    Written by Pierre Morcos, Colin Wall
    June 11, 2021
    In October 2020, allied defense ministers received a confidential report on a pressing challenge that often receives less attention than it is due: the vulnerability of transatlantic undersea cables. Sometimes described as the “world’s information super-highways,” undersea cables carry over 95 percent of international data. In comparison with satellites, subsea cables provide high capacity, cost-effective, and reliable connections that are critical for our daily lives. There are approximately more than 400 active cables worldwide covering 1.3 million kilometers (half a million miles).

    After the October meeting of allied defense ministers, and in the months since, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) underscored the need for the alliance to monitor and protect this critical infrastructure. However, despite the proliferation of public statements underlining the importance of protecting them, collective action to enhance their security has so far been lacking. A number of measures could be taken by allies to effectively protect subsea cables harnessing the full potential of their bilateral cooperations, NATO, and the European Union, in close coordination with the private sector.

    Critical Communications Infrastructure
    The Euro-Atlantic area is the oldest undersea cable route and carries traffic between the two biggest economic hubs with dozens of cables, the majority of which are between the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. Europe relies heavily on these cables as a majority of its data is stored in data centers located in the United States. Other major routes are those connecting Europe to Asia (through the Mediterranean Sea and the Suez Canal) as well as Asia with the United States (through the Pacific Ocean). From a more forward-looking perspective, Europe to Asia Arctic routes are increasingly explored as they offer dramatically shorter routes. Nonetheless, these polar cables still face significant technical challenges and are not credible alternative routes yet.

    The History Channel had a program on the first trans Atlantic cable and it was done by the fortitude of a few men, namely Cyrus Field. To have BAU today was a massive feat by brave determined individuals willing to go the distance and risk it all.
    If you have an opportunity, watch it!

    Today, it appears, we are very depended on such that may not be as reliable as we take for granted!

    The more we build, the more we have to maintain

    • Fast Eddy says:

      All that matters is that my internet is functioning till the very last minutes… I like to watch

    • Let’s hope that no one intentionally decides to cut these cables.

    • Artleads says:

      ‘The more we build, the more we have to maintain”

      But can’t people sense that we have already passed the point where we should even consider the building of more? The sooner that realization is made the sooner we get to saving a critical mass of what’s there already? Although it could tend to prevent squabbling over whose network gets maintained the more we include ALL of the infrastructure. The globally comprehensive approach to networking has a compelling draw of its own?

      • Artleads says:

        There has traditionally been a tendency for the have nots to say they need to catch up with the haves, and deserve all the wretched infrastructure owned by the haves. That should be an easy one: the answer is NO, you can’t have it. And maybe, in a collapsing economy, the reason should be clear.

        Nations need to use what they have and not go looking for more. That should be clear.

  34. Fast Eddy says:

    Hahahahaha — there is no way to UNf789 this situation … the Titanic is doomed.


    norm — when you are on your Covid death bed… please gather your remaining energy … and take a moment to type on OFW — Fast Eddy and his Wild Dogs were right all along … I f789ed myself… and there is no way to UNf789…. then give out a last gasp of Fast Eddy please find time to forgive my MORONISM… before expiring

  35. Fast Eddy says:


    The world’s most mRNA vaccinated countries now have shockingly high Covid infection rates. Hospitalizations and deaths are rising fast too. The mRNA experiment needs to stop. Immediately.


    hahahaha… more boosters PLEASE (urgent)

    • Jarle says:

      “The world’s most mRNA vaccinated countries now have shockingly high Covid infection rates.”

      Who the hell cares? How many severe ill? How many dead? Not so many? Thought so.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Read the article – record hospitalizations and deaths…

        But that’s not the important part – as I have explained — record infections are important -cuz the vaxxed will get infected Big Time – and we’ll get more mutations

  36. Sam says:


    He starts off saying it is amazing how mainstream media is not talking about natural Immunity 🤪
    I still think it depends on how sick you were to how much T cell response

  37. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Dr. Aaron Kheriarty explains why doctors are extremely hesitant to write mask and/or vaccine medical exemptions

    • According to this speaker, no doctor will write a medical exemption for a vaccine or mask exemption for anyone in the state of California, for fear of getting his license to practice medicine suspended.

  38. Michael Le Merchant says:

    EU shame as Spain RESTARTS coal plants as energy crisis batters Europe
    SPAIN has reopened one of its decommissioned coal-fired power plants as the ongoing energy crisis wreaks havoc across Europe.

  39. Michael Le Merchant says:

    New England electricity prices soaring

    New Englanders are paying significantly more for electricity this winter thanks to the region’s fuel supply issues and reliance on the global natural gas market.

    New data from regional grid operator ISO New England show wholesale power prices in the region averaged $59.42 per megawatt hour for December, a 42% increase compared to 2020. Day-ahead prices rose 62% year over year, averaging $65.14 per megawatt hour.

    Pricier natural gas, the region’s predominant fuel source for power generation, is helping drive electricity up. The average natural gas price last month was $8.38 per MMBtu on the Massachusetts index, or 97% higher than December 2020.

    Year-over-year prices shot up even more steeply for the region in November. Wholesale power rose 139% compared to November 2020, while day-ahead averages rose 126%.

    Timothy Fox, vice president and research analyst with ClearView Energy Partners, told Jeremy the region’s limited gas pipeline capacity and strain on the global market associated with Russia-Ukraine tensions are likely driving the stress on New England’s power generators.

    • Thanks for posting this. Electricity in the US Northeast is a concern. They import at least some LNG, because they don’t have pipeline capacity to carry natural gas produced in Pennsylvania and Texas to them. Before the recent low prices for natural gas, the US Northeast had very high electricity prices, created using high-priced natural gas.

  40. Michael Le Merchant says:

    The number of truckers, family members and supporters descending on Ottawa is now estimated at 500,000 people 50,000+ trucks.
    Yes, you read that right. Estimated half a million people.

  41. Minority of One says:

    Interesting review today from economist ‘Joe Blogs’. In the third and forth segments, 4:00 – 9:50 min, he says Evergrande (third seg), and Shimao and Agile (fourth seg), have effectively been taken over by the Chinese govt and investors will lose out, if I understood correctly. The Chinese banks will get their money back and most developments will be completed.


    • Thanks for the link. It sounds like Evergrande is being broken up. The assets (but not the associated debt) are being transferred to government entities. We will have to see how finishing these many properties really works out. Foreign investor seem likely to get little of their investment back.

  42. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Grocery aisles last night in Whitecourt, Alberta, Canada at 6:45pm

    • Rodster says:

      Yikes, when mouths go hungry, people tend to get very angry.

    • Whitecourt, Alberta’s grocery stores seem to be close to empty, according to the Twitter.

      Whitecourt seems to be about a two hour drive from Edmonton, Alberta, toward the Northwest. It has a population of about 10,000 people.

      It is not a very large city, basically in the middle of nowhere.

      Its claim to fame is

      Whitecourt is also located at the confluence of four waterways – the Athabasca River, McLeod River, Sakwatamau River and Beaver Creek.[3] A Canadian National rail line runs through the town.

      The Town has branded itself as the Snowmobile Capital of Alberta[1] and its motto is Let’s Go….[2] The Whitecourt meteor impact crater is found on nearby Whitecourt Mountain.

      With respect to the economy, Wikipedia says:

      Whitecourt’s economy is largely driven by three major industries – forestry, oil and gas industry and tourism.[32] With some farm land to the south and east of Whitecourt, agriculture plays a minor role in the town’s economy. . .

      Whitecourt is also home to many service companies in the oil and gas industry.

  43. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Energy crisis will be focal point of ‘long march’ in Feb against Imran Khan govt

    • This article is about Pakistan’s energy crisis.

      We know that Pakistan’s natural gas production is declining. It had been depending on imported LNG. An earlier article said that Pakistan could not obtain LNG; apparently, European countries (or others) were bidding it away.

      Now Pakistan has electricity blackout several hours a day. The long march is to protest these problems.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        We had a power outage last night for about 90 minutes then again this morning for about an hour…

        Really frustrating cuz I was just about to run the coffee machine when it started…

        Soon … there will be no coffee…

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Apparently they wanted to emulate the Canadian truckers — but there was no petrol — so they are walking instead

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Hands up if you feel total chaos is hammering at the Gates…

      Covid is ripping through highly vaxxed places… food supplies are becoming precarious … Ukraine is looking to explode…

      Kinda like what people must have felt pre WW1… only way more crazy

      Ya just know this is gonna blow … BLOW Big Time … and soon.

      hahahahahahahaaha where’s my Oxycontin J’ASSinda?

  44. Jef Jelten says:

    What is most unique about this “pandemic”, what defines it way more than the passing through of another Corona virus and its variants, which has been happening for thousands of years, enhanced or not, is two new developments.

    First is using PCR testing on a massive scale, testing everyone, unprecedented in human history
    even though the PCR is completely incapable of detecting infection.

    Second is genetic sequencing everything every few minutes.

    First part of 2000’s the trend was for a Doctor or two opening up “Clinics” aka “Doc in the Box”.
    Over the last 10 to 15 years it is very popular to open a “Lab” for diagnostics and or research. There are thousands all around the country and thousands more around the world. They all race to make some discovery or breakthrough that puts them on the map and secures massive funding.

    Never before in the history of colds, flu, and other viruses has a simple virus been analysed this much. If it had we would have terror pandemics every year.

    Take any bad flu season and disallow treatment for it and the death toll would be as great or more than C-19.

    • Rodster says:

      “the PCR is completely incapable of detecting infection”

      Someone posted on the previous page that a UK Funeral Director was admitted to Hospital because he had all the signs of Covid. He said they did at least three PCR test and they all came back negative. In 2020 I came down with a nasty cold my Doctor informed me it was probably Covid. I got tested and it came up negative.

    • Lastcall says:

      “Threats real, imagined or fabricated, can be used to sow fear, but a particularly effective technique is to use waves of terror. Under this technique the sowing of fear is staggered with periods of calm, but each of these periods of calm is followed by the manufacturing of an even more intense spell of fear, and on and on the process goes.’

      ‘Each wave of terrorizing creates its effects more easily after a breathing spell….’

      We just had a short breather in NZ over xmas; now the work continues in the new year.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fdzW-S8MwbI ( at 5.47)

      Fear of a virus is now being transferred/added to by fear of Russia vis a viv Ukriane.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        J’ASSinda even told us to enjoy January … cuz all hell would break loose in Feb… and it will.

        Funny thing is … nobody asks… how would she know … hahahahahaha

        Controlled Demolition and Extinction Imminent

    • I mostly agree with you. This level of analysis and use of lab tests is unprecedented.

      I think that part of the difficulty with lab tests now is that Omicron doesn’t appear in the nasal passages as often as earlier variants. Thus, swabbing the nose produces a lot more false negatives.

      I don’t think the problem is necessarily the PCR tests. I think the home tests will be a lot worse for producing a lot of negative test results, when a person really has the illness.

      I do agree that any bad flu season combined with disallowing proper treatment for this flu, would lead to a very bad result, perhaps even comparable to the current COVID problem.

  45. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Canadians are split on whether a tax should be imposed on those unvaccinated against COVID-19, with 52 per cent in support of the idea and 48 per cent against, according to a poll done exclusively for Global News by Ipsos.

    • I suppose this is disproportionately a tax on young people. How does an economy operate this way?

    • Rodster says:

      It just shows how the Government pits groups against another. Divide and Conquer.

    • Sam says:

      Polls lie… especially if they are retard polls.. come on son wake up! Just because it’s on the internet doesn’t mean it’s true

    • Fast Eddy says:

      I betcha if you polled children asking – do you agree that we should kill anyone who refuses the injection so we can keep Canada safe …

      The Majority would respond with – YES!

      Question 2:

      Which option would you choose to kill them:

      – burn at stake
      – stone them
      – hang them
      – torture them then drown them
      – all of the above

      90% would go for all of the above

  46. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Vaccine passport required to enter Home Depot in Quebec

  47. Minority of One says:

    Seems to me from reading your latest post Gail, that we are at the very top of the graph in Figure 8, Ugo Bardi’s Seneca Cliff, or maybe, just to the right of it. It has taken a bit longer to get there than I thought it would.

    • Yes, I think we are.

      One chart I have used is this one. It is scarier that Ugo’s. I think that if the financial system breaks, or the international trade system fails, the slide down is fairly quick.


      • Minority of One says:

        That is what I would describe as a Mad Max scenario, and given the clowns and crooks in charge almost everywhere, all-too-likely.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        So close… and yet… so close

        My Stewart Island acomm fell through so I won’t likely get a chance to shoot a Great White before the bucketing ends

        I wonder if that island is named after Rod Stewart – that would explain why almost all the inhabitants are covidiots

    • Rodster says:

      If a major conflict breaks out between NATO and Russia, all bets will be off as we slide into oblivion.

      • Minority of One says:

        I am not convinced that there will be a major conflict between NATO and Russia. A conflict yes, but not between Russia and NATO. The Ukraine economy is a bit of a basket case, I doubt Putin has any desire to invade and take over the country per se. If anything he will do what he did last time, I would have thought. Cause the troubles to flair up again in the South East and let Ukraine destroy itself. With perhaps some assistance from a few hackers targeting say the electric grid.

        • Dennis L. says:

          My understanding is the land is very good for crops, perhaps heard soil is 10 meters thick, add some rain and some fertilizer and it is very profitable.

          Modern machinery does not require many people, that is one for thought.

          Dennis L.

          • Annexing Ukraine for its food supply might be an idea, if the world is facing food supply issues.

            • if you annex somewhere for its food supply

              a—you can steal whatever food is there

              or b—you can divert future food production, but if you do that you have to feed the people who do the producing, year on year. and take their excess.

              if you treat them as slave labour, then you need slave-drivers, who must also be fed, in other words an occupying force.

              this always leads to revolt in the end.

              on the other hand, to cause chaos, all Putin has to do is keep his troops on the border as a threat.
              Thus no one will invest in ukraine, too risky, so ukraine will destabilise.

              he knows that if a hot war starts, the commercial stability of both sides will likely be severely undermined, if not destroyed altogether.

              Of course Putin might just risk it, pretty certain that NATO wont act–exactly a repeat of Czechoslovakia in 1938–(Hit ler will be ‘satisfied’ with that!)

              The wartoy makers in the USA will of course see only vast profits to be made—just as they always do

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I wonder if I provide my coordinates if Putin can hit our place with a nuke and Caddyshack the rabbit pests?

  48. Michael Le Merchant says:

    WW3 News:

    “Kremlin says the probability of a conflict hit the highest level never seen before”

    CNN now reporting: Biden administration now in final stages of identifying specific military units to send to Eastern Europe to deter Russia. Next steps likely to be prep orders and then deployment orders once final decision several US officials tell CNN.

    Putin has held a phone meeting with Cuba’s president. They’re discussing a strategic partnership between Cuba and Russia.

    20 warships of the Russian Baltic Fleet have departed from their naval bases and deployed to designated areas in the Baltic Sea for live fire combat training. The warships, integrated into several tactical groups, will include anti-sub, air defense tasks & mine countermeasures

    Israel updates plans for mass evacuation of Jews from Ukraine if war erupts; 75,000 people in eastern Ukraine eligible for Israeli citizenship, unclear how many would want to leave; top officials meet to discuss possible emergency airlift (Haaretz).

    Deployment of territorial defense troops is ongoing around the clock – Defense Minister of Ukraine Reznikov

    DHS warns of potential Russia cyberattacks amid tensions

    NATO sending fighters, ships to region; UK to withdraw some staff from embassy in Ukraine

    Lukashenka signed a decree on convening an extraordinary session of parliament of Belarus on January 27. No reason explained

    Estimated position of the Russian, NATO and US Navy groupings in the Mediterranean Sea as of 01/24/2022



    Lukashenka: we will have to deploy a whole contingent of the Belarusian army near the Ukrainian border

    -Denmark sending frigate to Baltic Sea, four F-16s to Lithuania
    -Spain sending ships, ‘considering’ jets to Bulgaria
    -France ready to send forces to Romania
    -Netherlands sending two F-35s to Bulgaria

    Australian Government is telling Australians to get out of Ukraine now.
    DFAT is raising it’s travel warning for Ukraine to “Do Not Travel”.
    Australians are being warned flights out could be suspended or cancelled with little notice

    China Launches Biggest Raid On Taiwanese Airspace Since October As CCP’s Pacific Perimeter Expands

    • Perhaps this is the most important item of all:

      “China Launches Biggest Raid On Taiwanese Airspace Since October As CCP’s Pacific Perimeter Expands”

      • Michael Le Merchant says:

        US aircraft carrier groups enter South China Sea for training

        Taipei — Two US aircraft carrier groups have entered the disputed South China Sea for training, the US department of defence said on Monday in what a senior commander said was to reassure allies and demonstrate resolve to “counter malign influence”.

        The disputed waterway is one of many areas of tension between the US and China, which claims a large swathe of the waters and has built military bases on artificial islands there.

        US navy ships routinely sail close to these islands to challenge Chinese sovereignty claims, to Beijing’s anger.

        The US department ofdefense said the two US navy carrier strike groups, led by their flagships USS Carl Vinson and USS Abraham Lincoln, had begun operations in the South China Sea on Sunday.

      • Michael Le Merchant says:

        China makes more threats against Taiwan…

      • Michael Le Merchant says:

        PLA’s J-16D electronic warfare aircraft was spotted for the first time in an apparent exercise near the island of Taiwan on Mon., right after two US aircraft carriers sailed from waters east to the island into the South China Sea a day earlier.

    • Oddys says:

      Terrible development. If there is indeed some logic behind the US actions it must be an explicit intention to make this go nuclear, Such a situation would become completely unpredictable so it must be very twisted minds behind all this.

      The alternative is that the US warmongers are completely delusional when it comes to their own capabilities. The russians have absolutely excellent supersonic anti-ship missiles and competent SAM systems. No NATO ships can expect to survive more than a couple of hours in the Black Sea in an armed conflict and no transport planes can expect to survive very long either.

      It is very difficult to imagine that the Russians would maintain any flow of NG at all to Europe, so it would be immediate darkness and starvation here.

      What are these people thinking about?

      • Michael Le Merchant says:

        Gets worse…

        Lithuania to transfer Stinger missiles, thermal imagers to Ukraine

        Lithuania will transfer U.S.-made Stinger man-portable air defense systems to the Ukrainian army and thermal imagers to the Ukrainian special forces, the LRT news site has said, referring to the Ministry of National Defense of Lithuania.
        The ministry recalled that Latvia would also provide MANPADS to Ukraine. Estonia plans to transfer Javelin anti-tank missiles. This assistance is granted after the U.S. government approved the transfer of U.S.-made equipment to a third country.

        • Michael Le Merchant says:

          The Insanity of the West Accelerates

          Paul Craig Roberts

          The New York Times reports that Biden is going to forestall Russian aggression against Ukraine by deploying between 1,000 and 5,000 US troops on Russia’s border and is prepared to increase the number of troops tenfold to 10,000 to 50,000 soldiers. A Russian army would eat this small number for a snack in 5 minutes. Clearly the purpose of the deployment is not military. The purpose is to heighten the “Russian threat” in the minds of the people in advance of a false flag event that will be blamed on the Kremlin.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          It REALLY is … and I Feel Great! Bit concerned about my dogs though


      • Stevie says:

        I suspect historians could make a good case that wars that spun out of control (most of them?) were started by elites that badly misjudged their own or their opponents capabilities. WWI seems to be the prototypical example of this. Which also seems to be a good example of the Peter Principle and Dunning–Kruger effect reinforcing each other. Although more recently, profiteering by the military industrial complex appears to be another major contributing factor. Not to mention those making the decisions don’t suffer the consequences of their mistakes.

    • Michael Le Merchant says:

      Russian stocks sink 8%, ruble plunges to 14-month low as conflict fears intensify

    • MM says:

      What is actually left in the coal deposits in Ukraine? Where was it ? Donetsk and Lugansk?

      • For what it is worth, BP data claims that Ukraine has very high coal reserves. In fact, they are listed mostly as “anthracite and bituminous” rather than “sub-bituminous and lignite.” For “anthracite and bituminous,” Ukraine’s coal reserves represent over half of Europe’s total coal reserves of that type. Poland’s coal reserves of this type are about 70% as much.

        Germany’s reserves are listed as “sub-bituminous and lignite.” Low grade coal can be a problem.

        Ukraine’s production is relatively lower. It is third in Europe in coal production behind Poland and Germany.

        The sheet showing the reserves to production ratio for Ukraine has an * where the number should be shown. The footnote says, “over 500 years.”

        These coal reserves could be significant in this conflict.

        I found this article as well.

        Ukraine has considerable reserves of coal and lignite, estimated at 34.4 billion tonnes in the Donetsk coal basin (by far the most significant), the Dnieper and Lviv-Volyn coal basins, as well as the Dnieper-Donetsk and Transcarpathian coal basins. It ranks seventh in the world after the United States, China, India, Russia and Australia in terms of proven coal reserves of which steam coal accounts for 70% and coking coal 30%. Exploitable reserves are competitive with imported coal.

        The country also has large fossil gas reserves estimated at almost one trillion cubic metres – second only to Norway in Europe. These lie onshore, mainly in the Dnieper-Donetsk basin, offshore under the Black Sea, and as shale gas in the Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts (Yuzivska gasfield) and in the Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk oblasts (Olesska gasfield). Efforts to exploit these reserves were set back by the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine, but a new programme of deep drilling at the Machukhske gasfield in the Poltava oblast promises gas from almost 6 000 metres, adding to other conventional production which totalled 21.0 bcm in 2018.

        The article also says:

        Hard coal deposits in Ukraine are characterised by their great depth – operations take place at 500 to 1 000 metres – and by thin seams of 0.8 to 1.0 metre. In 2018, coal was mined at forty-seven mines, of which forty-two produced G‑grade bituminous coal. The rest produced K‑grade coking coal and Zh‑grade bituminous coal. Total coal production in 2018 was 26.1 million tonnes, comprising 21.6 million tonnes of steam coal and 4.6 million tonnes of coking coal.

        Since spring 2014, the conflict in Donbas left Ukraine with little control over its coal-mining assets in the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts where all anthracite mines are located. As of March 2017, Ukraine completely lost these assets. Production data for the lost coal mines in Donbas is not known, but some coal is likely exported via Russia and the breakaway region of Abkhazia.

        I imagine with higher coal prices, this coal would become economic. The natural gas might be economic, as well.

    • Michael Le Merchant says:

      Pentagon Press Secretary Kirby announcing steps to ready multi-national NATO response force (NRF) of 40,000 troops “if it is activated…to defeat aggression, if necessary” against Russia

    • Foolish Fitz says:

      The US and minions are about as agile as a supertanker and show an ability to react in a moving environment reminiscent of a slug trying to swim.

      “Now in the final stages of identifying specific military to send”

      They have to identify, they don’t know?
      Seems a bit backwards to me, but it gets worse with “next steps likely to be prep orders”.
      Likely? Again they seem unsure, but eventually mention deployment, although that would appear to be only “likely”.

      Contrast with Russia’s reaction to a potential problem.

      “the situation in Kazakhstan has been fully stabilised in a matter of a week. The withdrawal of the CSTO troops that began on Thursday will be completed by January 19”


      The list of hardware being sent is also embarrassing, when you consider that at this moment in time Russia have by far the most capable army in the world.

      I’d also be concerned about the Russian view. If the words of Vladimir Zhirinovsky are anything to go by.

      “The year 2021 was the last year of peace in the new millennium. We have nothing to talk about with the United States. Foreign troops are at our borders along with their weapons. We can hold talks. They took place. Maybe there will be some more, and talking is better than pushing the button on both sides. But the solution can only come by force.” This, he emphasized, was his personal opinion and not the official opinion of Russia.

      “The end may be that part of Europe doesn’t exist any more. Take out London! Leave Ireland alone. Don’t touch Wales. London is the heart of the anti-Russian forces. And London is dancing its last days. Look at the photo of Boris Johnson [projected onto the screen].”

      “Ahead is a great tragedy for Europe, for humanity. War is inevitable! It will spell the end of Europe, the end of the USA.”


      Overall, I’d loosely agree with Minority of One above. Russia do not want the complete basket case that is Ukraine, but they will destroy it’s army and infrastructure if the West doesn’t back off.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Oh goody!!! This looks like it might have some legs… I demand CHAOS (and lots and lots of video as we go down the drain in Extreme Violence on the Streets)…

      I will start assembling my high powered thingies… the bolts are in the safe

      Maybe one last big fat shop .. to ensure Last Man Standing Status LMSS

    • Michael Le Merchant says:

      Amid evacuation of NATO diplomats from Ukraine, Zelensky says “We learned to contain external threats. It is time we begin offensive actions aimed at securing our national interests. Our citizens are united in wanting their territory returned”

    • Michael Le Merchant says:

      Members of Fort Bragg’s 82nd Airborne Division will deploy to Europe over next 72 hours in response to possible Russian invasion of Ukraine.

      • Fast Eddy says:


        We could use a good world war about now — NFL season is just about over so I need entertainment …

  49. https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/watch-live-sen-johnson-holds-star-studded-covid-19-second-opinion-hearing

    Ron Johnson livestream hearing/panel disscussion. IN PROGRESS

    The invited speakers – a star-studded group of world renowned doctors and medical experts – will provide a different perspective on the global pandemic response, the current state of knowledge of early and hospital treatment, vaccine efficacy and safety, what went right, what went wrong, what should be done now, and what needs to be addressed long term.

    Medical experts and doctors

    Four Pillars of Pandemic Response

    Dr. Peter McCullough
    Pillar 1: Limit the spread

    Dr. Bret Weinstein
    Dr. Jay Bhattacharya
    Pillar 2: Early at Home Treatment

    Dr. Ryan Cole
    Dr. Harvey Risch
    Dr. George Fareed
    Dr. Pierre Kory
    Dr. Richard Urso
    Pillar 3: Hospital Treatment

    Dr. Paul Marik
    Dr. Aaron Kheriaty
    Pillar 4: Vaccines

    Dr. Robert Malone
    Dr. David Wiseman
    Watch the hearing live here (9amET-12pmET)

    • Sounds like a very good idea. Perhaps a few Senators and others will listen. Maybe one or two news sources will report on it.

      • Xabier says:

        It’s very good, and gets particularly juicy from around the 4hr mark for those who do not have time to watch it all.

        Three Lt-Colonels in the military have now come forward to whistle-blow on the deaths and injuries, their attorney summarises.

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