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We have been told that intermittent electricity from wind and solar, perhaps along with hydroelectric generation (hydro), can be the basis of a green economy. Things are increasingly not working out as planned, however. Natural gas or coal used for balancing the intermittent output of renewables is increasingly high-priced or not available. It is becoming clear that modelers who encouraged the view that a smooth transition to wind, solar, and hydro is possible have missed some important points.
Let’s look at some of the issues:
[1] It is becoming clear that intermittent wind and solar cannot be counted on to provide adequate electricity supply when the electrical distribution system needs them.
Early modelers did not expect that the variability of wind and solar would be a huge problem. They seemed to believe that, with the use of enough intermittent renewables, their variability would cancel out. Alternatively, long transmission lines would allow enough transfer of electricity between locations to largely offset variability.
In practice, variability is still a major problem. For example, in the third quarter of 2021, weak winds were a significant contributor to Europe’s power crunch. Europe’s largest wind producers (Britain, Germany and France) produced only 14% of installed capacity during this period, compared with an average of 20% to 26% in previous years. No one had planned for this kind of three-month shortfall.
In 2021, China experienced dry, windless weather so that both its generation from wind and hydro were low. The country found it needed to use rolling blackouts to deal with the situation. This led to traffic lights failing and many families needing to eat candle-lit dinners.
In Europe, with low electricity supply, Kosovo has needed to use rolling blackouts. There is real concern that the need for rolling blackouts will spread to other parts of Europe, as well, either later this winter, or in a future winter. Winters are of special concern because, then, solar energy is low while heating needs are high.
[2] Adequate storage for electricity is not feasible in any reasonable timeframe. This means that if cold countries are not to “freeze in the dark” during winter, fossil fuel backup is likely to be needed for many years in the future.
One workaround for electricity variability is storage. A recent Reuters article is titled Weak winds worsened Europe’s power crunch; utilities need better storage. The article quotes Matthew Jones, lead analyst for EU Power, as saying that low or zero-emissions backup-capacity is “still more than a decade away from being available at scale.” Thus, having huge batteries or hydrogen storage at the scale needed for months of storage is not something that can reasonably be created now or in the next several years.
Today, the amount of electricity storage that is available can be measured in minutes or hours. It is mostly used to buffer short-term changes, such as the wind temporarily ceasing to blow or the rapid transition created when the sun sets and citizens are in the midst of cooking dinner. What is needed is the capacity for multiple months of electricity storage. Such storage would require an amazingly large quantity of materials to produce. Needless to say, if such storage were included, the cost of the overall electrical system would be substantially higher than we have been led to believe. All major types of cost analyses (including the levelized cost of energy, energy return on energy invested, and energy payback period) leave out the need for storage (both short- and long-term) if balancing with other electricity production is not available.
If no solution to inadequate electricity supply can be found, then demand must be reduced by one means or another. One approach is to close businesses or schools. Another approach is rolling blackouts. A third approach is to permit astronomically high electricity prices, squeezing out some buyers of electricity. A fourth balancing approach is to introduce recession, perhaps by raising interest rates; recessions cut back on demand for all non-essential goods and services. Recessions tend to lead to significant job losses, besides cutting back on electricity demand. None of these things are attractive options.
[3] After many years of subsidies and mandates, today’s green electricity is only a tiny fraction of what is needed to keep our current economy operating.
Early modelers did not consider how difficult it would be to ramp up green electricity.
Compared to today’s total world energy consumption (electricity and non-electricity energy, such as oil, combined), wind and solar are truly insignificant. In 2020, wind accounted for 3% of the world’s total energy consumption and solar amounted to 1% of total energy, using BP’s generous way of counting electricity, relative to other types of energy. Thus, the combination of wind and solar produced 4% of world energy in 2020.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) uses a less generous approach for crediting electricity; it only gives credit for the heat energy supplied by the renewable energy. The IEA does not show wind and solar separately in its recent reports. Instead, it shows an “Other” category that includes more than wind and solar. This broader category amounted to 2% of the world’s energy supply in 2018.
Hydro is another type of green electricity that is sometimes considered alongside wind and solar. It is quite a bit larger than either wind or solar; it amounted to 7% of the world’s energy supply in 2020. Taken together, hydro + wind + solar amounted to 11% of the world’s energy supply in 2020, using BP’s methodology. This still isn’t much of the world’s total energy consumption.
Of course, different parts of the world vary with respect to the share of energy created using wind, hydro and solar. Figure 1 shows the percentage of total energy generated by these three renewables combined.
As expected, the world average is about 11%. The European Union is highest at 14%; Russia+ (that is, Russia and its Affiliates, which is equivalent to the members of the Commonwealth of Independent States) is lowest at 6.5%.
[4] Even as a percentage of electricity, rather than total energy, renewables still comprised a relatively small share in 2020.
Wind and solar don’t replace “dispatchable” generation; they provide some temporary electricity supply, but they tend to make the overall electrical system more difficult to operate because of the variability introduced. Renewables are available only part of the time, so other types of electricity suppliers are still needed when supply temporarily isn’t available. In a sense, all they are replacing is part of the fuel required to make electricity. The fixed costs of backup electricity providers are not adequately compensated, nor are the costs of the added complexity introduced into the system.
If analysts give wind and solar full credit for replacing electricity, as BP does, then, on a world basis, wind electricity replaced 6% of total electricity consumed in 2020. Solar electricity replaced 3% of total electricity provided, and hydro replaced 16% of world electricity. On a combined basis, wind and solar provided 9% of world electricity. With hydro included as well, these renewables amounted to 25% of world electricity supply in 2020.
The share of electricity supply provided by wind, solar and hydro varies across the world, as shown in Figure 2. The European Union is highest at 32%; Japan is lowest at 17%.
The “All Other” grouping of countries shown in Figure 2 includes many of the poorer countries. These countries often use quite a bit of hydro, even though the availability of hydro tends to fluctuate a great deal, depending on weather conditions. If an area is subject to wet seasons and dry seasons, there is likely to be very limited electricity supply during the dry season. In areas with snow melt, very large supplies are often available in spring, and much smaller supplies during the rest of the year.
Thus, while hydro is often thought of as being a reliable source of power, this may or may not be the case. Like wind and solar, hydro often needs fossil fuel back-up if industry is to be able to depend upon having electricity year-around.
[5] Most modelers have not understood that reserve to production ratios greatly overstate the amount of fossil fuels and other minerals that the economy will be able to extract.
Most modelers have not understood how the world economy operates. They have assumed that as long as we have the technical capability to extract fossil fuels or other minerals, we will be able to do so. A popular way of looking at resource availability is as reserve to production ratios. These ratios represent an estimate of how many years of production might continue, if extraction is continued at the same rate as in the most recent year, considering known resources and current technology.
A common belief is that these ratios understate how much of each resource is available, partly because technology keeps improving and partly because exploration for these minerals may not be complete.
In fact, this model of future resource availability greatly overstates the quantity of future resources that can actually be extracted. The problem is that the world economy tends to run short of many types of resources simultaneously. For example, World Bank Commodities Price Data shows that prices were high in January 2022 for many materials, including fossil fuels, fertilizers, aluminum, copper, iron ore, nickel, tin and zinc. Even though prices have run up very high, this is not an indication that producers will be able to use these high prices to extract more of these required materials.
In order to produce more fossil fuels or more minerals of any kind, preparation must be started years in advance. New oil wells must be built in suitable locations; new mines for copper or lithium or rare earth minerals must be built; workers must be trained for all of these areas. High prices for many commodities can be a sign of temporarily high demand, or it can be a sign that something is seriously wrong with the system. There is no way the system can ramp up needed production in a huge number of areas at once. Supply lines will break. Recession is likely to set in.
The problem underlying the recent spike in prices seems to be “diminishing returns.” Such diminishing returns affect nearly all parts of the economy simultaneously. For each type of mineral, miners produced the easiest-t0-extract materials first. They later moved on to deeper oil wells and minerals from lower grade ores. Pollution gradually grew, so it too needed greater investment. At the same time, world population has been growing, so the economy has required more food, fresh water and goods of many kinds; these, too, require the investment of resources of many kinds.
The problem that eventually hits the economy is that it cannot maintain economic growth. Too many areas of the economy require investment, simultaneously, because diminishing returns keeps ramping up investment needs. This investment is not simply a financial investment; it is an investment of physical resources (oil, coal, steel, copper, etc.) and an investment of people’s time.
The way in which the economy would run short of investment materials was simulated in the 1972 book, The Limits to Growth, by Donella Meadows and others. The book gave the results of a number of simulations regarding how the world economy would behave in the future. Virtually all of the simulations indicated that eventually the economy would reach limits to growth. A major problem was that too large a share of the output of the economy was needed for reinvestment, leaving too little for other uses. In the base model, such limits to growth came about now, in the middle of the first half of the 21st century. The economy would stop growing and gradually start to collapse.
[6] The world economy seems already to be reaching limits on the extraction of coal and natural gas to be used for balancing electricity provided by intermittent renewables.
Coal and natural gas are expensive to transport, so if they are exported, they primarily tend to be exported to countries that are nearby. For this reason, my analysis groups together exports and imports into large regions where trade is most likely to take place.
If we analyze natural gas imports by part of the world, two regions stand out as having the most out-of-region natural gas imports: Europe and Asia-Pacific. Figure 4 shows that Europe’s out-of-region natural gas imports reached peaks in 2007 and 2010, after which they dipped. In recent years, Europe’s imports have barely surpassed their prior peaks. Asia-Pacific’s out-of-region imports have shown a far more consistent growth pattern over the long term.
The reason why Asia-Pacific’s imports have been growing is to support its growing manufacturing output. Manufacturing output has increasingly been shifted to the Asia-Pacific Region, partly because this region can perform this manufacturing cheaply, and partly because rich countries have wanted to reduce their carbon footprint. Moving heavy industry abroad reduces a country’s reported CO2 generation, even if the manufactured items are imported as finished products.
Figure 5 shows that Europe’s own natural gas supply has been falling. This is a major reason for its import requirements from outside the region.
Figure 6, below, shows that Asia-Pacific’s total energy consumption per capita has been growing. The new manufacturing jobs transferred to this region have raised standards of living for many workers. Europe, on the other hand, has reduced its local manufacturing. Its people have tended to get poorer, in terms of energy consumption per capita. Service jobs necessitated by reduced energy consumption per capita have tended to pay less well than the manufacturing jobs they have replaced.
Europe has recently been having conflicts with Russia over natural gas. The world seems to be reaching a situation where there are not enough natural gas exports to go around. The Asia-Pacific Region (or at least the more productive parts of the Asia-Pacific Region) seems to be able to outbid Europe, when local natural gas supply is inadequate.
Figure 7, below, gives a rough idea of the quantity of exports available from Russia+ compared to Europe’s import needs. (In this chart, I compare Europe’s total natural gas imports (including pipeline imports from North Africa and LNG from North Africa) with the natural gas exports of Russia+ (to all nations, not just to Europe, including both by pipeline and as LNG).) On this rough basis, we find that Europe’s natural gas imports are greater than the total natural gas exports of Russia+.
Europe is already encountering multiple natural gas problems. Its supply from North Africa is not as reliable as in the past. The countries of Russia+ are not delivering as much natural gas as Europe would like, and spot prices, especially, seem to be way too high. There are also pipeline disagreements. Bloomberg reports that Russia will be increasing its exports to China in future years. Unless Russia finds a way to ramp up its gas supplies, greater exports to China are likely to leave less natural gas for Russia to export to Europe in the years ahead.
If we look around the world to see what other sources of natural gas exports are available for Europe, we discover that the choices are limited.
The United States is presented as a possible choice for increasing natural gas imports to Europe. One of the catches with growing natural gas exports from the United States is the fact that historically, the US has been a natural gas importer; it is not clear how much exports can rise above the 2022 level. Furthermore, part of US natural gas is co-produced with oil from shale. Oil from shale is not likely to be growing much in future years; in fact, it very likely will be declining because of depleted wells. This may limit the US’s growth in natural gas supplies available for export.
The Rest of the World category on Figure 8 doesn’t seem to have many possibilities for growth in imports to Europe, either, because total exports have been drifting downward. (The Rest of the World includes Africa, the Middle East, and the Americas excluding the United States.) There are many reports of countries, including Iraq and Turkey, not being able to buy the natural gas they would like. There doesn’t seem to be enough natural gas on the market now. There are few reports of supplies ramping up to replace depleted supplies.
With respect to coal, the situation in Europe is only a little different. Figure 9 shows that Europe’s coal supply has been depleting, and imports have not been able to offset this depletion.
If a person looks around the world for places to get more imports for Europe, there aren’t many choices.
Figure 10 shows that most coal production is in the Asia-Pacific Region. With China, India and Japan located in the Asia-Pacific Region, and high transit costs, this coal is unlikely to leave the region. The United States has been a big coal producer, but its production has declined in recent years. It still exports a relatively small amount of coal. The most likely possibility for increased coal imports would be from Russia and its affiliates. Here, too, Europe is likely to need to outbid China to purchase this coal. A better relationship with Russia would be helpful, as well.
Figure 10 shows that world coal production has been essentially flat since 2011. A country will only export coal that it doesn’t need itself. Thus, a shortfall in export capability is an early warning sign of inadequate overall supply. With the economies of many Asia-Pacific countries still growing rapidly, demand for coal imports is likely to grow for this region. While modelers may think that there is close to 150 years’ worth of coal supply available, real-world experience suggests that coal limits are being reached already.
[7] Conclusion. Modelers and leaders everywhere have had a basic misunderstanding of how the economy operates and what limits we are up against. This misunderstanding has allowed scientists to put together models that are far from the situation we are actually facing.
The economy operates as an integrated whole, just as the body of a human being operates as an integrated whole, rather than a collection of cells of different types. This is something most modelers don’t understand, and their techniques are not equipped to deal with.
The economy is facing many limits simultaneously: too many people, too much pollution, too few fish in the ocean, more difficult to extract fossil fuels and many others. The way these limits play out seems to be the way the models in the 1972 book, The Limits to Growth, suggest: They play out on a combined basis. The real problem is that diminishing returns leads to huge investment needs in many areas simultaneously. One or two of these investment needs could perhaps be handled, but not all of them, all at once.
The approach of modelers, practically everywhere, is to break down a problem into small parts, and assume that each part of the problem can be solved independently. Thus, those concerned about “Peak Oil” have been concerned about running out of oil. Finding substitutes seemed to be important. Those concerned about climate change were convinced that huge amounts of fossil fuels remain to be extracted, even more than the amounts indicated by reserve to production ratios. Their concern was finding substitutes for the huge amount of fossil fuels that they believed remained to be extracted, which could cause climate change.
Politicians could see that there was some sort of huge problem on the horizon, but they didn’t understand what it was. The idea of substituting renewables for fossil fuels seemed to be a solution that would make both Peak Oilers and those concerned about climate change happy. Models based on the substitution of renewables for fossil fuels seemed to please almost everyone. The renewables approach suggested that we have a very long timeframe to deal with, putting the problem off, as long into the future as possible.
Today, we are starting to see that renewables are not able to live up to the promise modelers hoped they would have. Exactly how the situation will play out is not entirely clear, but it looks like we will all have front row seats in finding out.
She looks frazzled… I wonder if that guy that Fast Eddy kicked the shit out of earlier is her father or something…
https://youtu.be/Qtlue4iVLbM
“Central banks should be cautious in calibrating a response to inflation…
“The US and the UK economies, it is said, are overheating as the threat from the pandemic recedes… This might seem a compelling argument but the idea that the US, the UK and the big economies of the eurozone are in the middle of a rampant boom doesn’t square with the facts.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/feb/13/central-banks-should-be-cautious-in-calibrating-a-response-to-inflation
“Beware central bankers on monetarist war path.
“The state of the world economy is reminiscent of the period after the first world war in Europe… don’t be surprised if central banks cause a recession as they move into macho interest rate-hiking mood.”
https://www.omfif.org/2022/02/beware-central-bankers-on-monetarist-war-path/
“Yield Spread Oil Ratio-Signaling Bear Market And Recession…
“This morning, the spread between the ten and two-year U.S Treasury yields has narrowed to just .405%, and oil (WTI) has moved above $92… when the ratio of these two financial indicators fell to zero (yields compressing faster than oil price is rising) in 1990, 2000, 2007 and 2020, a bear market and recession were in process.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4486913-yield-spread-oil-ratio-signaling-bear-market-and-recession
Central banks are very good at creating recessions.
Overheating or supply chains are not keeping up? I think the problem is a resource problem. Also, workers retire early when things aren’t going well. They are not likely to come back.
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“Stockpiles of some of the global economy’s most important commodities are at historically low levels, as booming demand and supply shortages threaten to fuel inflationary pressures around the world.
“From industrial metals to energy to agriculture, the rush for raw materials and food staples has been reflected in futures markets, where a large number of commodities have flipped into backwardation — a pricing structure that signals scarcity…”
https://www.ft.com/content/d4766d00-75ee-4382-9373-f326c89630e1
“$100 Oil Threatens to Compound World Economy’s Inflation Shock.
“…much of the world will take a hit as companies and consumers find their bills rising and spending power squeezed by costlier food, transportation and heating… “The oil shock feeds into what is now a broader inflation problem,” said long-time Fed official Peter Hooper.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-13/-100-oil-threatens-to-compound-world-economy-s-inflation-shock
“The cost of bunker fuel for the majority of commercial ships trading today is just $10.75 per tonne away from the all-time highs recorded in July 2008 with shipping warned to expect high fuel bills for the duration of 2022 and into next year…
“The global fuel mix for shipping is also changing thanks to the sky high prices for LNG.”
https://splash247.com/bunker-prices-near-all-time-highs/
With natural gas so expensive, so one wants to use it as fuel to power LNG ships.
Backwardation seems to imply a belief in temporary scarcity. If the country (or world) goes into recession, the scarcity goes away, without greater supply.
“UK petrol and diesel prices hit new record high.
“The AA, which provided the data, conducted a poll of 15,335 of its members. It found that 43 per cent are cutting back on car use due to inflated fuel prices – this figure rises to 59 per cent for young drivers and 53 per cent for motorists on lower incomes.”
https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/news/93906/uk-petrol-and-diesel-prices-hit-new-record-high
“London Tube and bus fares face biggest hike for a decade.
“The increase comes amid an escalating cost of living crisis in the capital and followed petrol prices hitting record levels on Monday and ahead of looming rises to rail fares across the UK.”
https://www.ft.com/content/5a3f74f1-05ca-4279-9543-e418a87bed51
“Last orders for Britain’s pubs as energy crisis strikes.
“Exorbitant energy prices could mean last orders for thousands of pubs already battling to survive with reduced takings and depleted cash reserves. A third of publicans have no cash to fall back on, according to a recent survey by the British Institute of Innkeeping…”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/last-orders-britains-pubs-energy-crisis-strikes/
Why doesn’t the government just subsidize everything hahahahahahahaha
BAU is no longer… viable…
I wonder how that fat f789 is doing this evening … wonder if he’s having a sleepless night as he worries about the coppers coming for him.. I reviewed the video and I think he pulled a card out of his wallet to pay bus fare … and the cops said they’d check to see if they can track him through that.
The video is awesome – when the guy chokes FE you can hear him gasping for air then this enormous Hulkamania like sound … and then you hear the guy crash to the ground … then fast puts the boots to him.. and some people say don’t retaliate and pull Fast back … Fast screams at the Fat Bastard – I told you to f789 off — I told you to f789 off….then smacks the Fat Bastard again hahahaha…
The Big Fat Bastard with the Big Fat Bastard Mouth … get’s WWF’ed to the ground by the Might Fast Eddy …. hahahah
comments getting more unhinged by the day eddy.
a mess of imaginary four letter words, set in an imaginary environment, distanced into the third person as usual. Expletives impress no one, btw.
(rather like your encounters at the medical centre )
if you knew how to construct language around your thinking, instead of random keyboard bashing,
it would come across as more lucid.
fascinating insight into the working of your mind though
I love it, in a masochistic sort of way.
Does Fast Eddy make you nervous norm…
Israel 95% Vaxxed > Record Covid Deaths. That seems to trigger the CovIDIOTS.
I suppose deep inside they realize that all those boosters … (you know the ones that give you VAIDS) were a bad idea – they made things WORSE…
And they need to lash out at the messenger… but then the messenger kicks them in the face.. and in the giant fat gut… and they scurry away and regret attacking the messenger…
hahahahahahahahahahaaha
https://i0.wp.com/dailyexpose.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/image-107.png
https://i0.wp.com/dailyexpose.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/image-108.png
https://dailyexpose.uk/2022/02/08/uk-gov-data-suggests-fully-vaccinated-have-developed-vaids/
no more than i expected eddy.
keep working on those vowels though.
try seducing the English language
instead of raping it
you might be surprised at the warmth of the embrace you receive in return
Deaths per 100,000 are twice as high for full vax versus no vax in over 40 people. Some minor protection of 18-28 people who would live if allowed medication.
More headwinds for the UK economy.
Moderna Inc (MRNA) CEO Stephane Bancel Sold $1.8 million of Shares…….
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moderna-inc-mrna-ceo-stephane-011504159.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall
Please note that the date of this news is old. Sorry. It can be just interesting to note that it was mentioned a similar move by Pfizer’s CEO, but not by Moderna’s CEO.
“Europe’s Gas-Crunch Anxiety. Russia is showing no signs of increasing gas flows to Europe as tensions with the West over Ukraine enter a critical period.
“Supplier Gazprom again opted not to book any pipeline space for March to send gas to Germany via the key Yamal-Europe link, auction results showed.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-02-15/europe-s-gas-crunch-anxiety
“EU deepens investigation into Gazprom’s European business amid supply concerns.
“European Union antitrust regulators will knuckle down and boost information gathering on Gazprom’s European business, amid the continent’s escalating supply crisis and growing fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.”
https://www.cityam.com/eu-deepens-investigation-into-gazproms-european-business-amid-supply-concerns/
“Germany Plans to Force Gas Firms to Secure Reserves for Winter…
“The plan — to be presented in spring — would put the onus on companies including energy giants Uniper SE, RWE AG and Gazprom PJSC to safeguard stockpiles in Europe’s top natural gas consumer, said the people, who asked not to be identified…”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-14/germany-plans-to-force-gas-firms-to-secure-reserves-for-winter
Europe remembers the story of the ant and the grasshopper. LMAO
Good luck! If there are not enough supplies to be secured, or storage space is inadequate, this becomes a problem.
“Eurozone living standards are at risk of permanent damage if supply chain disruption does not ease soon, the European Central Bank has warned.
“Globalisation could be partially undone if businesses are ultimately forced to abandon their low-cost suppliers and shift to more expensive but closer sources of goods and materials.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/02/14/eurozone-risk-permanent-damage-goods-shortages-central-bank/
“Globalisation could be partially undone”
Indeed, it could be quite significantly undone. Only the most creditworthy might be able to obtain international trade. In fact, they might need things to trade in return.
Sad day for Canada
https://twitter.com/PapiTrumpo/status/1493367781206761474
Magnifique! Shut er down hahaha
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/covid-19-omicron-outbreak-queenstown-tipped-to-be-closed-by-friday/R76LD2MWD6LAYVQIRMRMKHCYTQ/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=nzh_fb&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1644859690
I wonder how the Beached Fat Bastard is feeling after being slammed to the concrete and having his front door kicked in … hahahahaha… Kill.. All … MOREONS. Kill All Morenons. Killallmoreons
I read a bizarre blog yesterday that seems to argue that the increasing absurdity of all the provocations we’ve been noting is in and of itself the point.
https://coronacircus.com/2020/11/21/revelation-of-the-method/
https://coronacircus.com/2021/05/20/accelerationism-and-new-world-order/
https://coronacircus.com/2022/02/11/season-of-sacrifice/
There is something valid in this commentary, I think, even if one sets aside the numerological/occult references.
The pantomime is too apparent.
The provocations become more and more outrageous (like the nuclear waste appointee.. can you imagine trying to have a serious meeting with that dude in the room?)
I don’t know what/who is really ‘behind’ it, but it’s obviously coming from a place of control (if not of events, then at least of narrative).
“can you imagine trying to have a serious meeting with that dude in the room”
Perhaps not with that particular dude. But generally why bother with people’s sexuality as long as it is consentual?
Lidia, we were introduced to Coronacircus yesterday by El Mar. It’s good reading, isn’t it.
One interpretation could be that when one creates an artificial environment of cognitive dissonance, people regress to a childish attitude and rely on ‘the authority’ whatever is saying, becuase they don’t understand anymore reality.
As I told in another comment, I think that there are psychologists, psychiatrics, sociologists and neuroscientists behind this western strategy.
But, in my view. mind is an elastic that at a certain point breaks.
When the people who put together the CEP … the first thing they said to the team assembled to execute was:
Always remember – almost everyone you are targeting … is a MOREON. So keep it simple … and it’s no different than exterminating rats .. or cockroaches… so never question what you are doing.
It is fascinating to hear the other point of view. My bottom line is that I am not a climatologist or anything else related to the practical side of climate change.
https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/02/15/why-global-warming-is-good-for-us/
> Why global warming is good for us
Climate change is creating a greener, safer planet.
The biggest benefit of emissions is global greening, the increase year after year of green vegetation on the land surface of the planet. Forests grow more thickly, grasslands more richly and scrub more rapidly. This has been measured using satellites and on-the-ground recording of plant-growth rates. It is happening in all habitats, from tundra to rainforest.
…. Another bit of good news is on deaths. We’re against them, right? A recent study shows that rising temperatures have resulted in half a million fewer deaths in Britain over the past two decades. That is because cold weather kills about ’20 times as many people as hot weather’, according to the study, which analyses ‘over 74million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries’.
…. And the statistics show that – as greenhouse-gas theory predicts – on the whole more warming is happening in cold places, in cold seasons and at cold times of day. So winter nighttime temperatures in the global north are rising much faster than summer daytime temperatures in the tropics.
…. But are we not told to expect more volatile weather as a result of climate change? It is certainly assumed that we should. Yet there’s no evidence to suggest weather volatility is increasing and no good theory to suggest it will. The decreasing temperature differential between the tropics and the Arctic may actually diminish the volatility of weather a little.
…. The geological record shows greater climatic volatility in cold periods of the Earth’s history than in hot periods…. It then became calmer as it became significantly warmer than today between 9,000 and 6,000 years ago, when human civilisation emerged.
…. Nature, too, will do generally better in a warming world. There are more species in warmer climates, so more new birds and insects are arriving to breed in southern England than are disappearing from northern Scotland. Warmer means wetter, too: 9,000 years ago, when the climate was warmer than today, the Sahara was green. Alarmists like to imply that concern about climate change goes hand in hand with concern about nature generally. But this is belied by the evidence.
…. Of course, climate change does and will bring problems as well as benefits. Rapid sea-level rise could be catastrophic. But whereas the sea level shot up between 10,000 and 8,000 years ago, rising by about 60 metres in two millennia, or roughly three metres per century, today the change is nine times slower: three millimetres a year, or a foot per century, and with not much sign of acceleration. Countries like the Netherlands and Vietnam show that it is possible to gain land from the sea even in a world where sea levels are rising. The land area of the planet is actually increasing, not shrinking, thanks to siltation and reclamation.
…. Environmentalists don’t get donations or invitations to appear on the telly if they say moderate things. To stand up and pronounce that ‘climate change is real and needs to be tackled, but it’s not happening very fast and other environmental issues are more urgent’ would be about as popular as an MP in Oliver Cromwell’s parliament declaring, ‘The evidence for God is looking a bit weak, and I’m not so very sure that fornication really is a sin’. And I speak as someone who has made several speeches on climate in parliament.
No wonder we don’t hear about the good news on climate change.
I would reply, but my post probably will not make the approval…
If proof were ever needed of what a backward sewer new zealand is take a look at this article. The ex-prime minister has joined with chinese pimps and brothel owners to build houses for the masses of immigrants he let into this sad country.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/127773569/sir-john-key-joins-forces-with-the-chow-brothers-in-property-venture
The chow filth owned brothels in Auckland and Wellington before they branched out into property. They ran hundreds of prostitutes. Key has a knighthood.
I suppose this is an elegant way of describing the situation:
new zealand no longer has a functioning media. Actually this has been the case for quite some time. No nz media will call out the former prime minister for this abomination and the disgrace it brings to public office.
Sad nz is about to be hit economically and I fear for people’s savings in this South Pacific disaster.
jacinta is fine though and will give the coveted Harvard address this year. Harvard is obviously not the institution it was. jacinta set the tone for new zealand when not long after she became prime minister she was waving her illegitimate child around at a UN session where she gave a speech. Some new zealanders were deeply ashamed by this but that was when people still cared about this corrupt collapsing socialist toilet.
And max key has a long career as a DJ — so he has all the skill sets to be a property developer…
As we know NZers are dummmb f789s (after all – who assaults someone when they are holding a video camera and asking the MOREONS to continue with the assault so that can film more hahaha) — then once there is enough film the Rough Dummb Beast gets slapped to the concrete and has the boots put to him … and then staggers away shouting ‘he kicked me in the face’ and shouting Freedom at a few people who have told him he cannot assault peaceful protesters)…. so Max is in the running for PM down the road…
https://www.stuff.co.nz/entertainment/music/63505188/max-keys-musical-career-takes-off
Great article by Richard Prebble in today’s MSM nz herald. 10% of adult population in Kawerau on meth (as determined from waste water samples). Sad corrupt nz now has the second highest incarceration rate for first world countries. USA has the highest incarceration rates and I would debate whether sad nz is a first world country. new zealand is a backward corrupt sick criminal sewer and things will only get worse.
Marching into the gutter… hahaha…
Don’t forget – mike would be first in line if NZ were to decide to switch to a monarchy…. that’s how bad it is
The founder of my old school, in the early 17th century, made some of his money from canny investment in the properties occupied by brothels which lined the south bank of the river Thames. Which he then used to found a school (‘God’s Gift’ is the motto) for the good of his soul……
Thoughts on the price of oil:
Gail has been of the opinion that prices would crash; perhaps volatility will be the problem. Very difficult to make investments when one has no idea of what the product will sell for next week.
Dennis L.
Until Quantitative Tightening really starts and interest rates start rising, perhaps oil prices can continue to rise somewhat. US interest rates seem likely to rise in March. It would seem as though once interest rates starts rising, it will not be long before oil prices fall.
On the other hand, back before the 2008 crisis, it took quite a while for rising interest rates to pop the debt bubble.
https://i0.wp.com/ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/figure-10-draft.png
This is from my paper, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis. Interest rates started rising in the first quarter of 2004. The oil price crash didn’t come until July 2008, which was over four years later. It is hard to believe it will take as long this time.
If I remember correctly, there were other things going on back in the 2004 to 2008 period. There was a major push to offer mortgages to the many poor people in the US, who had been turned away in the past. Underwriting standards for loans were greatly reduced. There was talk about NINJA applications being accepted: No income, no job. It reminds a person of the Black Lives Matter movement, more recently.
We have a lot of other things going on now, as well, but it seems like they are pushing the opposite direction, in the direction of recession not long after rates rise. Special programs that put into place in March 2020, when the pandemic started are now disappearing. Loans whose payments were temporarily deferred now need to be paid, with interest. Governments have a great deal more debt. China is in worse shape, as is Italy. Inflation is so high, relative to interest rates, that bankers feel they need to raise rates aggressively. Countries are fining high energy prices of all kinds are already a problem.
Not relevant to Covid:
Just got off the line with ULine, company with which I deal. A real human voice answered very quickly with a smile, took my information, dealt with the issue in a few seconds and said goodby.
I am not afraid of computers and make significant use of them, but telephone trees manned by AI are a PIA. Such a pleasant change, so easy, so quick, an obsolete human gets it done.
Came across this, seems relevant to the great concern and abundance of caution making the rounds.
https://bigthink.com/neuropsych/fanaticism-the-dangers-of-fusing-your-identity-with-ideology/
Maybe making a living doing something besides sitting in an office changing the lives of one’s students has some real life lessons. We are facing economic and resource challenges, but too much gazing at one’s navel does not seem to be healthy.
Dennis L.
This is the name and subtitle of the article you link to:
Radicalization: The strange psychology behind fusing yourself with one cause
For some people, there is only one thing to live for. They commit their entire being to that thing. They are dangerous.
The key takeaways are
–The philosopher Simone de Beauvoir once wrote about the “Serious Man” — a type of person who commits so much of themselves to one project or cause that they dissolve their identity. She speculated that these people were dangerous.
–A recent study from the University of Texas proves just this: People like the Serious Man are more likely to “self-sacrifice” for a cause.
–The study suggests that the best way to deradicalize someone is to have them expand the causes and beliefs they commit to — to go beyond only one identity.
I find it hard to believe that third point will work. People who are radicalized have some real need that they are trying to fill. Perhaps they are convinced that the cause in question will fix a major problem they have. It is hard to believe that it will be possible to take a more rounded view of life.
They are known over here (UK) among people of a certain age as “SIFS”- single issue fanatics a term coined back in the 70’s by Bernard Levin, a journalist at the Times. His strong advice was never to be stuck with one on a long journey or at a party.
Interestingly, or not, he was the one time paramour of Arianna Stasinopolou who later went West and found fame and fortune under the name Huffington
Sometimes, though, a time comes when one must commit totally to a cause and not rest until either victory and the utter defeat of the enemy, or death.
Despite the excellent proverb to ‘Never shut the door on an enemy so that it can’t be opened again’.
Some enemies are far too dangerous and beyond the pale.
On the propaganda front, an attempt is being made these days to cast perfectly rational people as ‘fanatics’ and ‘radicalised’, when they are actually fighting perhaps the greatest crime ever committed.
Like politicians who whole life is devoted to power and money. They are dangerous.
Ideology sounds a lot like idiot. Ideotlogy.
🤔
re ” The countries of Russia+ are not delivering as much natural gas as Europe would like, and spot prices, especially, seem to be way too high. ”
Russia does not sell its gas on spot markets, as the EU demands. So it is ironic that the Europeans didn’t just ASK Russia to sell them gas, and sign a CONTRACT for the gas. They would be in far better shape than they are now.
As Putin pointed out, if the Germans want Russian gas, all they have to do is ask for it, and sign a contract. The Germans are acting like petulant women who think their partners will jump around GUESSING at what they want. . . .
Not to mention, certify NS2 immediately.
It is very hard to feel sorry for the Germans/Europeans.
Germans/Europeans are so convinced that CO2 is their worst problem that they don’t want the new pipeline. Also, Ukraine will likely be left out in the cold, with Nord Stream 2.
The US doesn’t want Nord Stream 2, because it wants to sell high-priced natural gas to Europe. With Nord Stream 2 in operation the price might be lower (especially if the total volume of gas imported from Russia is higher), making it difficult for the US to export natural gas to Europe at a profit.
Also, US oil and gas companies would really like to engineer a shortage of natural gas in the US, to try to get the price of natural gas up to a higher level. There is a lot of natural gas that can potentially be extracted, if the price can rise to a high enough level.
With low US natural gas prices, it is hard to make a profits by adding new natural gas wells. These often need to be in locations where the “sweet spots” have already been drilled. With higher US natural gas prices, more natural gas can be available for both the US and elsewhere.
Re “Germans/Europeans are so convinced that CO2 is their worst problem that they don’t want the new pipeline.”
That is not what I read—that they do not want the pipeline. The people want the pipeline. And businessmen want the pipeline/gas.
Everyone knows damn well that Germany needs Russian gas. Remember who the investors are (I listed them here previously)
“Nord Stream 2 AG signed financing agreements for the project with ENGIE, OMV, Shell, Uniper and Wintershall Dea.”
But the Greens and the Americans are putting pressure on the govt.
++++++++++++++++
“Also, Ukraine will likely be left out in the cold, with Nord Stream 2.”
Of course they will.
Bypassing Ukr is (practically) the whole point of NS 2, as I just explained.
All of the European investors are on board with this bypassing operation.
“The people want the pipeline. And businessmen want the pipeline/gas.”
That’s absolutely right, exactly what I would say.
“Everyone knows damn well that Germany needs Russian gas.”
Except young Green groupies who think that electricity comes from the socket and goods from the internet.
“But the Greens and the Americans are putting pressure on the govt.”
Absolutely. It’s no coincidence that our Green Foreign Minister first appointed the head of Greenpeace (Jennifer Morgan) to the Foreign Office.
The Eurasian ‘pact’ is of course the end of the US/UK hegemony as we know it. One thing is for sure; there’s no shortage of elitist/eugenics loonies in the EU.
NS2 is a declaration of war as I understand it. Will the US MIC tolerate that? Likely not.
I didn’t mean the spot price statement to apply to only Russia+; it applies to all sellers of LNG. In fact, Russia itself is a seller of LNG. I believe that it is selling LNG at high prices on the spot market, but I suppose I could be wrong. Certainly, other countries are selling LNG at high prices on the spot market. I suppose I should have said “high prices for spot market LNG” seem way too high.
I agree that with respect to pipelines gas, Europe should have signed a long-term contract with Russia at a high enough price that Russia would have been happy with it. Of course, Russia is already sending pipelines natural gas, and perhaps LNG natural gas, to China. How much natural gas Russia really has available to sell Europe as pipeline gas is not rising much. It may be falling. This puts a limit on what Europe can actually purchase this way.
I don’t think Russia sells any gas on the spot market, but it might sell some LNG that way.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/why-russian-exports-hold-sway-over-european-british-gas-prices-2021-11-03/
The bulk of Russian gas flows through pipelines. I think russian gas that appears on spot markets might be gas originally sold to the country that then sold it on the spot market, but not sure.
“Russia prefers long-term gas contracts which can last for several years, over the short-term spot market which is based on one-off purchases. This is a way of ensuring it can retain market share and secure a consistent price, especially when Europe has said it is seeking new sources of gas.”
It is Germany and Europe that has been looking for gas elsewhere, for their leaders’ own political reasons. To blame this on Russia, while simultaneously holding up NS 2 for no good reason—thus, obviously, pinching off a major supply line—is patently absurd.
As for China, there is no reason why Europe should imagine it is at the head of the line for Russian gas, especially under the ridiculous conditions of ongoing insults to the Russian president, the puerile sanctions threats form the Americans that the Europeans apparently indulge them in, and Europeans’ pointedly looking for other sources of gas (maybe sources they don’t have to sign contracts with). They are playing hard to get when they are the needy party. .
Knowing that it has an alternative market in China of course gives Russia leverage. The Europeans must be stupid if they don’t know this, don’t know that Russia knows this, don’t know that Russian knows that they know this, ad infinitum. It seems to be the Americans who cannot figure out the basics and think that there own motives to force Europe to buy gas from them are clever—whereas they are pathetically transparent.
It is quite abusive, but poor little Poland seems to be willing to make an ideological statement of some kind by committing themselves to the pricey US LNG.
The recent gas deal signed by Russia and China postdates the BS coming out of Europe. It is an effect, not a cause. There is more than one fish in the ocean for Russia.
I wish that black “Log in to use details from one of these accounts” box would disappear … !
“Europe should have signed a long-term contract with Russia at a high enough price that Russia would have been happy with it. ”
Actually, I believe long-term contracts are more likely to guarantee relatively low average prices to Europeans. More important to the Russians and Gazprom is the predictability and regularity of payment, so that they can plan their long-term maintenance and new construction activities.
Building and maintaining pipeline and storage infrastructure is, obviously, a high-level skill set and a major financial commitment. Maybe now the European investors in Nord Stream 2 are wising up to this fact.
German businessmen need the same predictability in their gas supply.
It is, unfortunately, common for people to ascribe to Russians motivations that are shortsighted-to-the point of stupid. The Russians and Andrei Miller of Gazprom are not shortsighted. And they certainly are not stupid. They know their business—they are not being “mean.” But they certainly will not let themselves be jerked about by European prima-donna ingrates projecting their own ill will onto Russia.
I think that part of Europe’s problem is lack of storage facilities, and lack of attention to filling these storage facilities, besides the pipeline problem. Europe needs to be filling storage, year around, even from LNG imports. Otherwise, it is very difficult to have predictable supply.
They have drawn down their stored gas.
While they need gas *now* they cannot store any.
Another advantage to long-term contracts. Everyone can plan. Kind of like with a marriage as opposed to an occasional fling.
The gas situation between EU and Russia is very long and complicated.
I recommend to read this article from 2015 by Reuters from a time where the issue was less political than economical:
https://news.trust.org/item/20151013144530-ht8qq/
When you look at it you see that options / oil / gas being tied together was the wish of Russia and the offer for long term contracts whereas the EU more or less took side with the spot market where it thought it could diversify and always find a bargain because of oversupply.
Currently it is very difficult to find accurate news on this situation because “The West ™” tries to blame russian imperialism on it’s problems.
When you look at it from a more historical perspective, you will find one thing:
Russia wants to sell more gas and makes some offers that are more or less based on a “long term relationship” and the EU more or less gambles on “futures contracts” maybe aided by UK and US trading houses manipulating the entire global energy market.
There is no doubt that the financial trading houses in the UK and US love the spot market. They can game it, trade and make money off of it.
Gas was heavily politicized in Ukraine long before the Maidan, in 2014.
It is not clear why the UK hates Europe so much, and wants to trash the EU economy by depriving it of Russian gas. USA and UK seem to have set up this confrontation with Russia, by expanding NATO to its borders, just to trash the EU economy. If Europe still thinks that NATO is their friend then they need to take a good look at what is happening.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10510775/Tories-say-West-threaten-block-Moscows-banks.html
> Boris slams European states such as Germany for addiction to Russian gas supplies
Boris Johnson will hold crisis talks with Joe Biden tonight after warning there could be less than 48 hours to prevent the invasion of Ukraine – and comparing European states to addicts hooked on Russian gas.
The PM is set to embark on another trip to Europe later this week as diplomatic efforts ramp up to defuse the standoff with Russia. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been in Kiev today and will go to Moscow tomorrow.
The UK, EU and US have set out brutal options for sanctions including starving Russia of foreign capital, holding up the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and targeting banks and oligarchs close to the Kremlin.
But there is not yet a clear package agreed across Nato allies, with Germany among the countries seen as dragging their heels. Defence Secretary Ben Walllace revealed his frustration at the weekend by warning there was a ‘whiff of Munich in the air’ – a reference to the appeasement of Hitler.
Mr Johnson took a thinly-veiled swipe today insisting that ‘the world needs to learn the lesson of 2014’ when not enough was done to move away from Russian gas and oil following the Russian activity in eastern Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea.
‘What I think all European countries need to do now is get Nord Stream out of the bloodstream,’ he said on a visit to Scotland. ‘Yank out that that hypodermic drip feed of Russian hydrocarbons that is keeping so many European economies going.
‘We need to find alternative sources of energy … and get ready to impose some very, very severe economic consequences on Russia.’
Ukraine president Volodimir Zelensky turned up the heat on Germany this afternoon, saying after talks with Mr Scholz – who again dodged on whether the pipeline could be mothballed – that everyone should ‘clearly understand’ that Nord Stream 2 is a ‘geopolitical weapon’ for Russia.
However, Russia’s ambassador to Sweden Viktor Tatarintsev said Mr Putin ‘doesn’t give a s*** about western sanctions’, adding: ‘The more the West pushes Russia, the stronger the response will be.
The war is scheduled for this Wednesday apparently.
One of those Russian rockets will probably go “off course” and land in down town Ottawa. That clear out those truckers.
I suppose that Boris Johnson realizes that the UK is unlikely to be the beneficiary of any pipeline natural gas from Russia, regardless of which pipeline it is shipped through. There simply won’t be enough total supply; what is available will be used by continental Europe, before it ever gets to the UK.
If the European economy (ex the UK) loses its natural gas supply, it will go downhill rapidly. With inadequate natural gas supplies, Europe will require less coal and oil as well. This will leave more for the UK with respect to oil, natural gas, and coal. Getting rid of an unproductive part of the world economy indirectly helps the rest of the world continue to operate.
Very clear explanation. Gail, thank you.
LOL
Well, if Europe is daft enough to fall into that one, then they are practically begging NATO to do it to them. Ukraine seems to be happy enough to play the role of patsy; what did they think was going to happen to them? Now Europe has to make a decision either to obey NATO or to resist it.
I’m sure the Ukraine plays ‘the game’ and balances on the knifes edge as well.
I think “we” can kiss goodbye to Central Europe in any scenario.
Perhaps.
🤔
Europe’s best bet may be to join with Russia – and to leave the unproductive USA out.
The US is by far the EU’s largest trade and investment partner. The EU can’t just “leave out” the US, although it could certainly have taken a more realistic approach to geopolitics and its own energy requirements.
The EU getting ‘eliminated’ as an ‘unproductive part’ of the global economy, as Gail suggests, does not sound like a realistic option either, so the EU may have to start looking more to the east to cement ties with Russia and to develop its trade and investment with China via the trade and investment deal that was agreed in January.
China is now the biggest EU trading partner. In 2020, EU imported nearly twice as much from China as from USA, and it exported 2/3 to China what it did to USA, and that is rising fast. USA is losing control of the EU, and this confrontation with Russia is bringing geopolitical tensions right to the surface.
It is difficult to see any perfect solutions, so the EU will have to decide on which is the better path forward, but getting ‘eliminated’ does not sound the better. Obviously they will not seek to ‘cut out’ USA and that was a humorous reply to Gail’s analysis that the EU stands to get ‘cut out’, as was perhaps clearer when the comments stood closer.
The EU may well opt to continue to orient toward the east. They are not going to be able to do much without Russian gas, and China is increasingly the EU’s most important trading and investment partner. They are going to have to stand up to the USA and UK. They have begun to do that, and they will need to do it more and more. Good luck to them.
“Although overtaken by China in 2021 as the largest EU import source for goods, the US remains the EU’s largest trade and investment partner by far.
“Total US investment in the EU is three times higher than in all of Asia. EU investment in the US is around eight times the amount of EU investment in India and China together.”
https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/united-states/index_en.htm
The interdependence is huge – but smart Eurocrats would have acknowledged the reality of their energy-dependence on Russia and engaged in some “have your cake and eat it” diplomacy, rather than bowing to Trump’s pressure on NS2 and convincing themselves renewable energy would keep the economy ticking over.
Now that we are in era defined by supply-constraints with the EU particularly vulnerable, but China also in a net energy bind and struggling to deflate its housing bubble, all bets are off. Any re-orienting is going to involve some painful trade-offs with questionable rewards. As you say – no perfect solutions.
As far as I can tell, it doesn’t look like the EU-China deal you mention has been ratified yet.
“Relations between Brussels and Beijing are at a low point after a failure to ratify a long negotiated investment deal was followed by a round of tit-for-tat sanctions that was sparked by European concern for the plight of the Uighur minority in China.”
https://www.euractiv.com/section/china/news/eu-ministers-to-back-lithuania-in-china-trade-battle/
“It is not clear why the UK hates Europe so much,”
Central/Northern Europe in particular can still manufacture shit worth a crap and have access to Russian/ME fossil fuels. So does East Asia.
They can Money™ as much as they want, but at the end of the day it is Stuff™ that matters.
Envy? Delusions of grandeur perhaps?
Manufacturing is 18% of GDP in Germany, 11% in USA and 9% in UK – and 26% in China.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.IND.MANF.ZS?locations=GB
‘GDP’ could mean just about anything (inflated) these days.
How about the percentage of people employed in manufacturing?
Say, how many percent of the work force are engineers, assembly line workers, machine operators and technicians?
China 28%
Germany 27%
EU 25%
USA 20%
Norway 19%
Sweden 18%
UK 18%
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.IND.EMPL.ZS?locations=DE-GB-US-CN-SE-NO
You’ve gotta break it down further into people ‘Doing Actual Shit™‘ making sure the rubber hits the road.
_All_ numbers are inflated these days.
Does this count as ‘engineering’?
Scientist must have been absolutely ‘wrecked’ on skunk in the studio that day. Shame it is not in HQ on YT, I have the FLACS on the B&O cans.
# 4F8869F148FFF1F8D60FE2EC7D54D3C8029D2B01
‘Sounds’ like a good plan to a simple engineer blinded by the myopia of ordinary and crippled from a handicap called procrastination.
Just fucking send it through the B&O cans, into outer space and call it boogie.
Why?
Because!
🤣👍👍
My acronym for the day:
SFA – “Short Fuse Anxiety”
The UK and the USA are the only powers really sending “material” (cough) to Ukraine.
The material itself from what I read will not even make a dent in the Lugansk and Donetsk republics armed forces. I have the impression that the powder keg is located in New York and has “REPO” written on it, At least that is what some fringe youtubers say….
This is quite the headline. But that would be an expensive cup of tea, given the resources that must have gone into building the reactor in the first place. A more objective headline might have been: Fusion energy absolutely nowhere nearer after several decades of very pricey research.
The UK media (like untold others) deliberately live in a fantasy world, and it is going to completely take down the society soon enough, when more conventional energy falters, and nearly everyone is going to be dead – it is almost comedic.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/nuclear-fusion-energy-sun-jet-source-b2011178.html
> Nuclear fusion breakthrough opens door to clean and near limitless energy
UK-based JET reactor produced 59 megajoules of energy during a five-second burst of nuclear fusion
A scientific experiment that mimics the way in which our sun powers itself has set a new record for generating energy, in a breakthrough that raises the prospect of one day developing a near limitless source of power. The UK-based JET reactor, located in Oxford, produced 59 megajoules of energy during a five-second burst of nuclear fusion, doubling the previous record of 21.7 megajoules set by the facility in 1997.
Fusion, the process that powers the stars, brings together hydrogen atoms at temperatures 10 times hotter than the sun, which then bind to release a vast amount of energy and form new elements. “We’ve demonstrated that we can create a mini star inside of our machine and hold it there for five seconds and get high performance, which really takes us into a new realm,” said Dr Joe Milnes, the head of operations at the reactor lab.
In theory, nuclear fusion does not require an abundance of fuels, and generates only very small amounts of short-lived radioactive waste. Importantly, it does not produce greenhouse gases. The breakthrough at JET, run by the UK Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA), opens the door to one day producing a near limitless – and clean – source of power that can be used to fuel our homes, cars and cities.
However, harnessing the forces involved in nuclear fusion is a huge challenge, and there is still a long way to go before this type of energy will be accessible on a practical basis. Temperatures of more than 100 million Celsius are required to fuse together atomic nuclei and generate the release of energy. No material on earth can withstand direct exposure to such high levels of heat.
Because of this, the JET scientists have constructed a doughnut-shaped magnetic field that holds in place the fusion reaction’s “fuel” – the hydrogen atoms deuterium and tritium – which goes on to form a highly ionised cloud of gas called plasma. Fusion occurs within this white-hot river of plasma as it races around the inside of the JET machine, known as a tokamak, before releasing a burst of energy along with other elements, such as helium.
In an experiment conducted at JET last autumn, around 59 megajoules, or 11 megawatts, of energy were produced – enough to power around 60 kettles’ worth of water – in a five-second burst. Because of the complex set-up of the JET facility, the experiment consumed more energy to create the fusion reaction than it produced.
One little mouse-fart.
Rather like saying ‘I made £10 begging yesterday, but £20 today: next year a millionaire!’
I’m embarrassed by my species: looking forward to reincarnating as a rat – much smarter.
Aleksander Wat
To Be a Mouse
To be a mouse. Preferably a field mouse. Or a garden mouse –
but not the kind that live in houses.
Man exhales an abominable smell!
We all know it – birds, crabs, rats.
He provokes disgust and fear.
Trembling.
To feed on wisteria flowers, on the bark of palm trees,
to dig up roots in cold, humid soil
And to dance after a fresh night. To look at the full moon,
to reflect in one’s eyes the sleek light of lunar
Agony.
To burrow in a mouse hole for the time when wicked Boreas
will search for me with his cold, bony fingers
in order to squeeze my little heart under the blade of his claw
a cowardly mouse heart –
A palpitating crystal.
(Translation by Czeslaw Milosz)
It is necessary to keep the “hopium” up.
Five seconds…. hum.. All we need is another factor of six million and we have energy for a year.
“… the experiment consumed more energy to create the fusion reaction than it produced.”
just more “Scientists” collecting their 100+K yearly salaries…
good job if you can get it.
The way the universe works entropy wise tells us that it’s not going to be possible to contain this high energy fusion reaction AND produce net energy from it.
Tokomaks eh. Sounds like the 1970s again. Actually in many respects it is the 1970s again.
I wish there could be just one honest scientist who would say ‘Look guys, the universe works by increasing entropy. Trying to contain this powerful reaction AND produce net energy from it is no different to a perpetual motion machine. It’s not something that can happen’.
Hello Gail
Thank you for your insightful article.
I would like to make a note regarding Nuclear Energy.
You will agree with me that the ‘main law’ of your theory reads…’Too expensive for the consumer, too cheap for the producer’.
It is an insightful and useful main theorem that actually applies to all forms of energy that you would like to apply.
With nuclear power, France is in exactly such a situation. France needs to renew and upgrade its reactors. Currently, 17 of its 56 reactors are shut down for reasons various. Worryingly, 6 of the newest reactors (built around 2000) have been diagnosed with corrosion problems that will put them out of commission for a long time. The problems with the decommissioning of the EPR plants and cost overruns are well known
EDF has had to scale back its production capacity to the level it was at 30 years ago. In addition, two weeks ago they were forced by the French state to sell a larger portion of its generated energy at a rate of 48 euros MWH. This is far below the energy market price of today. (around 200 euros MWH). The reason is to ensure that the energy intensive industries can remain competitive. Loss of EDF is estimated at 7 billion euros for this fiscal year.
The French state came directly to the aid of the citizens in September when energy prices rapidly rose above 50 euros MWH to support the consumers. They promised consumers a 4% price increase freeze over all of 2022. This was an expensive gift because, as mentioned, prices hovered somewhere around €200 MWH. Cost to the French government estimated at 15 billion over 2022. Add to that the standard energy vouchers paid every year worth about 5 billion euros.
Meanwhile, Macron has opted for the expansion of nuclear power plants to a total of 15 reactors by 2050, an increase in reprocessing capacity and an increase in the number of sites for the storage of radioactive waste. This is an extremely expensive undertaking, and apart from the question of who is going to finance it, it also raises the question of what an MWH will cost the consumer if you start to budget for the entire chain>.
The French Court of Auditors has now answered this question and they arrive at an estimated amount of around 100 euros MWH. That is, by the way, comparable to the calculations that also apply to the EPR plant in Hinkleypoint.
If the Court of Auditors already arrives at such amounts, which can already be expected to be higher, it is difficult to see how the French consumer/industry will ever be able to pay the MWH cost.
Nuclear power seems nice but will turn out to be just as unaffordable (or even more unaffordable) as any other form of energy. And thus also ‘unreliable’ in a different way than ‘wind and solar’ for industry and consumers.
Gail, if you are interested in it I can send you an extensive essay with the historically grown situation in France with links and literature references and conclusions
Thanks, Gerard! I had heard quite a few pieces of this story.
The early nuclear power plants in many places, including France, Japan and Russia, were constructed in a way that was not terribly expensive. As we have learned an increasing amount about safety problems that can arise, design changes have been made in the rich countries that make the cost very much more expensive. At the same time, the complexity of the new designs makes them harder to build. There are more chances for things to go wrong, such as the corrosion issue you mention. Poorer countries that are building nuclear power plants now are probably not making all of these upgrades.
The World Nuclear Association lists 55 new units being built, around the world. https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/plans-for-new-reactors-worldwide.aspx
Some of these are in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Belarus and Turkey. It is hard to imagine that they would be able to afford very expensive reactors. China has the largest number of the new reactors. They are reaching limits on concrete they can make each year. They may run into difficulty as well.
People don’t realize that uranium supplies deplete, just as any other resource depletes.
I should probably research and write more about nuclear power. Perhaps you could send me the essay you mention.
China to start 18 new nuke plants the 2027.
Trump on the injections.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/wUiDbVqFYedd/
I notice that Trump’s endorsement of the vaccines has more “down votes” than “up votes”.
As only JHK can write it 🙂
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/speed-wobble/
“If the ads on the Superbowl each year are like a Rorschach test for the nation’s mental condition, then this year’s ad-roll was a cavalcade of frantic hallucinations suggesting a near-complete detachment from reality for an audience of ADD-disabled cell phone slaves locked into a Big Tech induced consensus trance. You could barely tell what these advertisers were trying to sell in their commercials, the psychotic dazzle of half-second jump-cuts was so ferocious. One interesting note, though: people of non-color (PONCs) seem to have been magically sucked out of the universe. There, that fixed things for everybody else.
Snoop Dog’s half-time house party — Hollywood’s G-rated version of a BLM riot — heralded a real riot later on in downtown LA after the Rams’ victory. Fans lit-up a metro bus and tagged it with spray-paint. The police moved in… objects were thrown at them. I’m just sorry that Snoop didn’t bring out his friend and sometime co-star Martha Stewart to twerk for the multitudes — while, say whipping up a pumpkin mousse. That might have brought the country together after all these months of rancor. But, like I said, sorry, PONCs need not apply. Nor did Da Dawg invite onstage my favorite new pop star, Ski Mask the Slump God, composer of the hits “Faucet Failure” and “Foot Fungus.” Maybe next year… if there is a next year….”
Kunstler writes:
““Joe Biden” has so far failed to deliver that war with Russia over Ukraine he promised us — which would be like two Craig’s List customers fighting over a twenty-year-old Jeep Wrangler up on blocks with the engine missing. ”
Put that way, it is hard to see how anyone will be really trying to fight a war over Ukraine. In a way, it reminds a person of fighting for Afghanistan.
Kunstler also writes:
“Maybe jamming Ukraine into NATO, as America’s Deep State has been wishing and hoping to do, wasn’t such a great idea after all. Maybe NATO itself isn’t such a great idea anymore.”
Without as much energy for fighting wars, especially wars related to poor countries, and in fact, with respect to a very poor EU, the situation looks un-winable. There really isn’t enough natural gas for everyone. Europe somehow will get left out.
Behind the western push for confrontation in Ukraine there are two motivations and a lot of contradictory interests of all countries involved.
First – Europe addiction to russian gas:
https://ec.europa.eu/energy/infrastructure/transparency_platform/map-viewer/main.html
as Europe’s imports over 40% of natgas from Russia.
The second – and this is US critical motivation, I believe – is not allowing the gas flow to the East = to China:
https://www.gazprom.com/f/posts/37/581052/map_sila_sib_e2021-12-15.png
Especially, if the Power of Siberia 2 is launched:
https://intellinews.com/gazprom-starts-designing-20bn-gas-pipeline-to-china-183569/
When this happens, over 100 bcm will flow to China, which is around half of Russia current export. Guess who will suffer…
Right. I think that the links you show give more detail regarding Russia’s future natural gas exports to China. As these natural gas exports ramp up, less natural gas will be available for Europe, especially from the more southern fields.
That interpretation seems off. It seems difficult to see how confrontation with Russia over Ukraine is likely to get Europe any more gas and China less. All indications are that the opposite is liable to happen – and NATO well knows that.
Well, this is how I see it.
What is your explanation?
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russia-And-China-Ink-Huge-Oil-Deals-As-Ukraine-Tensions-Soar.html
…still not convinced?
It seems difficult to see how confrontation with Russia over Ukraine is likely to get Europe any more gas and China less. All indications are that the opposite is liable to happen – and NATO well knows that.
Long term goal is always to flip Russia to West’s side.
The more the merrier… in coming confrontation with China.
Russia is playing the pivot game, trying to balance both sides. They know that eventually, whoever wins this conflict, will subsequently invade Russia… provided it will have enough power to do it. Game of ‘last man standing’, war of attrition.
Rubbish, NATO has done everything that it possibly could to push Russia away and toward China. NATO is maximum dunce.
Carrie Madej interview Toronto Business weekly.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/s8cuFBkWkgmm/
“DR. CARRIE MADEJ – COVID19 VACCINES – IS THERE A MANIPULATIVE ALIEN AGENDA?” A little over an hour.
Eduardo Porter New York Times
Sat, February 12, 2022, 10:55 AM
A street through Granville, Tenn., a town filled with shops and museums celebrating small town life, Feb. 5, 2022. (Stacy Kranitz/The New York Times)
GAINESBORO, Tenn. — There is not much to suggest prosperity in Gainesboro, a hamlet of 920 in Tennessee’s Upper Cumberland region. Almost 1 in 7 homes are vacant. One-quarter of the population lives in poverty.
Yet from his office in the Jackson County Courthouse, County Mayor Randy Heady outlines a picture of plenty: Revenue from sales and occupancy taxes almost doubled in the last fiscal year, and he expects another 20% increase this year.
“Sales tax is up, occupancy tax is up, liquor tax is up,” he said.
And outsiders are flocking into the county.
“They are coming from other states, trying to get away from the high taxes,” Heady said. “People are moving from Arizona and California, New York and New Jersey.”
Economists have long voiced fear that rural places like this are being left behind. The last of the textile businesses, an economic mainstay, departed in the 1990s. Jackson County and several other counties in the Upper Cumberland are considered “distressed” or “at risk” by the Appalachian Regional Commission.
But the newcomers are fueling a boomlet in the area, based on a simple economic proposition: It is pretty, and it is cheap. While Jackson County’s typical household makes $35,207 a year, a little more than half the national average, the low cost of living allows residents to punch far above their weight in economic terms.
Some local businesses are busier than ever. Carol Abney has 250 clients for an internet-based accounting practice she runs from her husband’s auto-repair shop in Celina, about half an hour north of Gainesboro in Clay County.
“I’m booming,” she said.
While the good times are still fragile, the turnaround could suggest a path for other rural areas to shake off their story of decline.
“Our county has been growing pretty steadily over the last five years, but really growing in the last couple,” said Randy Porter, the mayor of Putnam County, the most populous in the region.
The region has a couple of things in its favor. It has long drawn summer tourists for hunting and fishing, as well as retirees who come from as far away as Ohio to settle among the rivers, lakes and hollers.
Cookeville, the region’s largest city, is home to Tennessee Technological University, which has about 10,000 students. The university estimates that in the 2019-20 academic year it contributed $860 million to the economy of the Upper Cumberland region and added 7,356 jobs.
gen·tri·fi·ca·tion
/ˌjentrəfəˈkāSH(ə)n/
noun
the process whereby the character of a poor urban area is changed by wealthier people moving in, improving housing, and attracting new businesses, typically displacing current inhabitants in the process.
“an area undergoing rapid gentrification”
the process of making someone or something more refined, polite, or respectable.
“soccer has undergone gentrification”
Up in Maine, the Rich 🤑 gobbled up property along the sea Coast and the poor natives are displaced inward along with their Macaroni and Cheese
Fast Eddie’s vision of the Future,
The Future is NOW!
Having a Good ❤️ Heart….might get one killed…
Rose Abuin/New York Daily News/TNS
Talk about no good deed goes unpunished.
An attempt at being a Good Samaritan went horribly wrong after a woman let a homeless man into her Salt Lake City apartment to shower, and he slit her throat.
Authorities at first did not know what had caused the woman’s injury, receiving only a report of a woman “bleeding heavily,” reported KUTV-TV. But the victim told police she had let the man in. After slashing her neck, he fled, she said..
Happy Valentines Day, as Gail likes point out… important to cherish our good moments together now
Giant Miners to See Record Profits Slip on Cost Pressures
This means Miners will have to raise the price to hedge against higher cost pressures = higher PPI until the demand collapses.
https://www.mining.com/web/giant-miners-to-see-record-profits-slip-as-cost-pressures-bite/
This paragraph explains the problem:
No one is confident enough of long-term high prices to invest in more mining capacity.
Since the topic of AI comes up every now and then and since this is an excellent talk by Ben Goertzel
Well; if he says so, then it must be so.
🙄
Hello Gail, thanks a lot for this post (and all the others). I mentioned your name and your blog in a comment – I hope it’s ok -, which I posted here: https://www.naturalnews.com/2022-02-11-mike-adams-ann-vandersteel-abundance-economy-artificial-scarcity.html
Thanks for the mention. There is no problem with mentioning my site elsewhere.
Higher Love – Lilly Winwood with Steve Winwood
https://youtu.be/CsS4xlHKnpw
Music. One comment:
“This is far and away one of the most beautiful and yet painful songs I’ve ever heard. It’s more like a prayer. It moved me to tears the first time I heard it and it moved me to tears still.”
The original version is one of my all-time favorites.
Try this:
Very nice … so many memories are triggered …
Five truck drivers suddenly die while driving during these days.
As you know, in Italy mRNA vax are mandatory over 50 and below 50, if you are not officially recovered or vaxed, you need to make a nasal swab every 48 hours…(quite difficult being a truck driver)
https://www.trasportoeuropa.it/notizie/autisti/malore-al-volante-la-filt-chiede-lavoro-usurante-per-camionisti/
https://www.trasportoeuropa.it/notizie/autisti/quattro-camionisti-morti-di-malore-sulle-strade-italiane/
It is hard to imagine why it makes any difference at all whether a truck driver is vaccinated.
Or a tennis player for that matter…especially since he could provohe had Covid and natural immunity
Or a Scientist working from home or an an environmental monitoring officer working remotely in the field for 95% of their role….you can not make this stuff up and you can not reason with a zombie yet alone a hoard of them.
.we have to build our own society within this insane one and exclusively so…let’s start today
According to Prof. Meluzzi, Psychiatrist, Forensic Criminologist and Professor at University, ‘they’ want to avoid to leave on the ground a big control-group of not vaccinated people of any kind.
In order to spread possible current and future health problems under generic explanations (such as pollution, stress or whatever, but about the whole population) and avoid any comparison with people of same age and condition, but not Covid-19 vaccinated.
https://www.oltre.tv/meluzzi-vaccinati-gruppo-controllo-terrorizzante-video/
There’s something to be made of how “they” are showing their hand more and more, and being so overtly bumbling/malicious.
I came across an interesting blog yesterday that (perhaps) raises more questions than it answers. I will make a new post with the links.
“Premier Li Keqiang said China will increase support for agriculture in spring, in an effort to ensure the nation’s “stable and healthy” economic development, the official Xinhua News Agency reported.
“China will ensure adequate supplies of fertilizers and other goods used in farming, and stabilize their prices, Li said in written remarks to a national agriculture meeting held Sunday.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-13/china-to-boost-farm-support-measures-to-ensure-summer-harvest
If China has reduced or eliminated exports of fertilizer, this would leave more for China to use internally. China realizes the rest of the world is likely to have problems with its crops. It wants to tend to its own, as much as possible, with the fertilizer that it has reserved for itself, to assure as high output of crops as possible.
I would describe the current situation on the Russian-Ukrainian border as follows:
The Russian troops shout: “Give us more money for our natural gas!!!”
The Ukrainian and NATO troops shout: “We are deep in the debts!!!”
Why Angela Merkel was such a successful leader?
Because she was a physicist.
And Maggie Thatcher was a chemist.
Hard-headed women with experience in the hard sciences.
Meanwhile, Jacinda Adern graduated with a Bachelor of Communication Studies in politics and public relations. That makes her a very different kettle of fish.
Are you guys pulling our legs? These three “leaders” are hardly distinguishable.
OK, but:
“Merkel went on to become a physicist, working at an academic research institute in East Berlin.”
https://indianexpress.com/article/research/decoding-angela-merkel-part-i-the-pragmatic-physicist-who-gave-germany-the-stability-it-craved-for-7554859/
You are completely right: I am affraid that these naive political figures are a complete catastrophe.
“Why Angela Merkel was such a successful leader?”
By successful you surely mean that she clung on to her job for far too long?
Merkel destroyed Germany’s competitiveness by shutting nuclear power stations and with the failed and exceedingly expensive Energiewende experiment.
FYI, rumor is that Merkel is suffering from a “vaccine” injury. I hope this rumor is correct. 🙂
I am affraid that she was not able to influence the Energiewende course alone.
Are you the same Alfred who was in Kiev?
One person makes very little diff no matter what background they have …
Good point! This has been the source of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine for many years in the past. This is part of the reason Russia wants to move its natural gas exports to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that bypasses Ukraine. The new pipeline is said to use newer technology, as well. There seem to be arguments about the CO2 impact of the new pipeline, including the effect of fugitive methane (itself a global warming gas) by people who think that a transition to renewables is close at hand.
https://energytransition.org/2021/09/worse-than-coal-new-data-finds-nord-stream-2-contradicts-eu-climate-goals/
The conflict beteween Russia and Ukraine is mainly about:
1. not paying the bills in a timely manner for its own imports by Ukraine
2. ransom for higher “transfer fees” through Ukraine.
Ukraine knows it has a Joker and Germany and Russia are about to take it out of the game. The USA knows that pretty well. If Germany and Russia overcome their “problems” the Mackinder era comes to an end.
Russia has made it perfectly clear here that it will not back off.
Germany is to swing the balance here…
Unfortunately the German Parliament is being ruled by people that are too weak intellectually and politically to steer “the ship”…
The people there have actually themselves lead Germany into a position of needing gas imports to help with intermittent Renewables.
They may still change course but the costs already are very high (in terms of gas) because precious time has been lost for a serious (geostrategic) plan besides leaving it all to “the free market will take care of it”
So do we have a free market when the USA demands North Stream 2 not to be opened? Well, i am not an economist….
With shutting down the nuclear power plants, Germany must do the same thing as Japan: embrace natural gas.
Thanks, MM. Russia “needs” Ukraine for one thing and one thing only: as a neutral buffer state between it (Russia) and potential aggressors from the West. Russia treated Ukraine, its being a former SS republic, very well, carrying on with policies of the centralized Soviet state. Half of the Ukrainians were ingrates incapable of running their country in a sensible fashion, and of course they were played by EU actors using them as proxies of various sorts.
It is quite sad, but really not Russia’s problem to solve, except for the security issues.
Belarus figured out after the Maidan fiasco next-door and before the Bel-Maidan got going full blast that sitting between two chairs was not a good idea. They decided to sit on the Russian chair.
The Ukrainians go for better wages to the West. It is the Western banks that keep the Russia operating. No need for an invasion from the West. Canada does not need such “buffer”. Belarus Is depopulating, too, sticking to Russia will not help.
Russia subsidizes cheap energy for its population, which Is not sustainable.
The name od the Empire Is The West.
The problem of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus is their continental character, which makes them to be situated on the perifery od the empire.
The split od the Roman Empire to the West and the East part was exactly about this problem: the West expanded, the East imploded.
The prevalence of the mother cult in the Orthodox church, i. e. the biological survival, confirms this, too. The West, with its protestantism, economized the religion, stripping it off unnecessary stuff. The Catholicism, with its unendless number of religious orders for celibates also fought against population explosion.
In my view, the main problem with Nord Stream-2 is that it avoids any intermediate Country to have a role with Russia (such us for instance Ukraine),
Nord Stream-2 completed leaves the intermediate Countries of previous pipelines in an unique and isolated relation with Russia.
While EU and US want to make any possible Country around Russia to enter EU, leaving Russia without any friendly (or dependent) Country around itself.
If an intemediate Country doesn’t play any role for gas import to EU, it cannot make any pression or say anything to Russia.
Without Nord Stream-2 Ukraine could still say to Russia:
“treat me well! I’m the one giving your gas to EU!”
While having Nord Stream-2 completed, Ukraine could not say anything to Russia and it could not play any role for us, mentally-unstable-Europeans.
(little correction above: ‘such as’ instead of such us’, sorry).
Just to complete: given the current energy scarcity, it seems to me that Russia is a sort of Saudi Arabia which ‘doesn’t obey’.
For the western Countries it is unaccepttable to have an important supplier who doesn’t obey.
We are in tragic and dangerous situation for the world now.
If the western Countries will accept a multilateral-power-world, we could have some balance in the world, while if we don’t accept this new configuration we could face a possible big conflict or a long series of conflicts.
But I have the impression that we go towards the second option, as it seems that nobody wants to come back.
We will find out how this all works out. Even if Nord Stream 2 is allowed to operate, I imagine that there could be arguments if not enough natural gas makes it to the end of the line in Denmark and Norway. Is it possible for early countries on the delivery route to take too much for themselves.?
” Is it possible for early countries on the delivery route to take too much for themselves.?”
It sure is.
That was the problem with gas to Europe flowing through Ukraine.
People still don’t “get it” when it comes to cause and effect and Ukraine and Russian gas.
There should not be a problem if Country A buys gas from Russia that flows through a pipeline that first traverses Country B. This is only a problem if Country B (let’s say, oh, Ukraine) takes some of that gas for itself, takes more than its own allotment, holds various countries hostage because physical gas is flowing in a pipeline within its territory, etc. Country B should be happy to take just the gas it has paid for plus some transit fees.
But Ukraine—I mean, Country B!—did not do that. Instead it stole other countries’ gas, did not pay for its own gas, let the gas flow become a football in its own domestic politics, etc.
Hence, NS2.
Check out the map, and the text, to understand gas transit routes into Europe:
http://www.gazpromexport.ru/en/projects/transportation/
“This has been the source of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine for many years in the past. This is part of the reason Russia wants to move its natural gas exports to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that bypasses Ukraine.”
LOL! Ukraine is the primary reason for the construction of NS2 (NS1 already in operatoin and AFAIK still in operation).
The “problem” was Ukraine stealing Russian gas on its way to Europe.
Just look at a map:
https://eegas.com/fsu.htm
I am astounded at the relative ignorance of Russia-EU gas policies and politics on the part of people who style themselves experts in the Ukraine, Russia, EU energy policies, the supposed “Russia-Ukraine conflict,” or gas.
Here you go, for starters:
https://searchworks.stanford.edu/view/10747662
Zombie Apocalypse: will it be our future?
I think there is a reason: literature always reflects the fears and the hopes of the culture that created it; sometimes very indirectly and in symbolic ways. And, here, it may well be that zombies reflect an unsaid fear of our times, a fear that is present mainly in our subconscious: hunger.
Let’s start with a typical feature of zombies: the black circles around the eyes.
Zombies are supposed to be “undead,” cadavers that somehow returned to a semblance of life. But do cadavers have this kind of eyes? I must confess that I don’t have much experience in autopsy but, from what I saw on the Web, it seems to me that it is rare that cadavers have those dark eye sockets; that is, unless they had developed bruises before dying. It is true that a decomposing cadaver will slowly lose the soft tissue and, eventually, the eyes will disappear leaving only dark holes in a mummified skull. (I know, this was a ghoulish search, I did it in the name of science).
Instead, for what I could find, dark eye sockets may be a characteristic of undernourished people, often as the result of the development of a facial edema. Here is, for instance, a photo of a Dutch girl during the famine of 1944-1945 in Holland.
This is not always a characteristic of malnourished people, but it seems to occur rather frequently. Another example is the Great Famine in Ireland that started in 1845. We don’t have photos from those times, but the artists who drew pictures of starving Irish people clearly perceived this detail. Here is, for instance, a rather well-known image of Bridget O’Donnell, one of the victims of the Great Famine. Note her darkened eyes.
So, we have some idea of who these zombies could represent. They are starving people. And it is clear that they are hungry. In the movies, they are described as stumbling onward, desperately searching for food. They seem to be the perfect image of the effect of a famine. Look at the memorial of the Irish famine, in Dublin:
https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2017/03/zombie-apocalypse-our-future-for-real.html
Let’s add a ‘poison-connection’ to zombification. In Haiti’s case it was a hunger for slave-labor that used a zombie-inducing poison to facilitate the ‘disappearing’ of the victims.
Passage of Darkness
In 1982, Harvard-trained ethnobotanist Wade Davis traveled into the Haitian countryside to research reports of zombies–the infamous living dead of Haitian folklore. A report by a team of physicians of a verifiable case of zombification led him to try to obtain the poison associated with the process and examine it for potential medical use.
Interdisciplinary in nature, this study reveals a network of power relations reaching all levels of Haitian political life. It sheds light on recent Haitian political history, including the meteoric rise under Duvalier of the Tonton Macoute. By explaining zombification as a rational process within the context of traditional Vodoun society, Davis demystifies one of the most exploited of folk beliefs, one that has been used to denigrate an entire people and their religion.
Great movie – Serpent and the Rainbow
This is a post by Ugo Bardi from almost five years ago — 2017.
This sounds like a paragraph that I could have written:
For many homeowners, the COVID-19 pandemic forced a change in perspective on where they wanted to live. Why stay in a cramped apartment in the smoggy city when you can Zoom into your meetings from a country farmhouse or Edwardian manor or Martello tower?
Or why not buy your own island, complete with villa? Part of an exclusive 100 person community called Fantasy Islands, far away from the hustle and bustle of crowded city streets, its website lists it as the creation of “lady pirate poet” Agadora Humphries.
And with prices starting as low as $104,000, it’s a steal – less than half the average cost of a first-time buyer’s house in the UK.
There is one slight catch, though – you can’t actually live in it because it only exists online. It exists in The Sandbox, a metaverse: one of many virtual worlds filled with digital assets ranging from dresses and sneakers to art and cars. Users buy a digital receipt of the property, a non-fungible token (NFT) that is recorded on a shared digital ledger known as a blockchain, similar to how cryptocurrency transactions are logged.
https://cnaluxury.channelnewsasia.com/obsessions/buying-virtual-real-estate-metaverse-194511
You know the end cannot be far away when……
If this isn’t a sign of insanity than what is?!
Oh I dunno … maybe that tranny fellow who’s in charge of the spent fuel portfolio…
That’s not real… is it real???
Eddy yes it is for real. Part of the destroy western civ by all means.
I suppose they are thinking.. WTF .. extinction is imminent… let’s crack a few final jokes?
But look at those legs he shows, Eddy!
An updated version of the Arab proverb:
‘When a city is near its end, people start to grow oranges’.
Which meant the useless, ornamental variety.
It is hard to see how an orange tree could have the right environment in an Arab country. It needs a wetter environment, among other things.
Perhaps the proverb originates from the era when Arabs held much of the Iberian Peninsula, which of course is wonderful orange-growing country.
Orange is a typical fruit in Sicily, so Italians are normally aware of its proverb hystory.
Please let me give my contribute.
Orange was spread by Arabs because they were good merchants, but the fruit comes from China, India, Malaysia,Thailand.
They planted Orange (and Citrus fruits in general) in Sicily and other regions because it was a good place for that.
Part of my ancestors were of the south (Puglia) and they used to trade Oranges even with California, then US planted its own Orange cultivations.
https://www.valdiverdura.com/arance-italia-mondo
To clarify, it comes from the historian Ibn Khaldun (14th century) and refers to varieties grown solely for show in North Africa, not as a main crop.
Ibn Khaldun wrote one of the first theories of civilisational collapse caused by the inevitability of internal decadence as societies urbanise and external pressure from more vigorous nomads and invaders.
The latter also enjoyed, in his view, the advantage of greater ‘group-feeling’ compared to the divisions and class conflict of more complex societies.
Also from him:
‘The candle is brightest just before it goes out’. Which is probably where we are?
I envy my Catalan cousin who has the most wonderful garden producing heaps of oranges and lemons, near the old Roman city of Tarragona.
Viewing the devastation caused by the horrible cold summer of 2021, in this damp little depression between two ridges I live in, I gave up on even the idea of trying little lemon bushes in pots…..
Still, I can beat him for apples!
Has your miracle apple, apparently immune to decay, finally gone the way of all things, Xabier?
The indestructible rubber supermarket apple, Sir Harry? Yes, it did rot…… eventually.
Likely it means that cities depend on wide trade networks and intense commerce for their survival, and a return to primitive agriculture means that everyone in the city is about to die.
Orange groves look pretty but, like olive groves, they are not going to support an urban culture, maybe a few goat herders in centuries to come. A Greek salad.
The saying may have its modern equivalent in ‘people talk about permaculture when fossil fuel industrial civilisation is about to collapse and they are all about to die anyway’, and it would be true enough.
Maybe we should take the hint and start planting some fruit trees now. Apples and pears seem to do quite well on Britain. I do not know if goats much like the place but sheep, pigs and cows seem to be pretty cool with it.
The medieval icon of a roasted pig with an apple in its mouth. I do not know whether domesticated pigs could survive on their own on Britain or whether they would need constant care. Wild boar seem to like forests, and there is almost none of that left here – and no boar either.
Plenty of fields though, so I suppose that, back to digging it is. What wonders await – nuclear fusion it ain’t.
I agree with your post in every single word.
Well put!
Would you buy a home in the metaverse? Here are some things to consider
Virtual real estate is still in its infancy, but the industry is set to grow. From private islands with villas to superyachts and customisable storefronts that can be rented out, experts weigh in on what investors should look out for.
https://cnaluxury.channelnewsasia.com/obsessions/buying-virtual-real-estate-metaverse-194511
Virtual ownership: you’ll own nothing [tangible] and be happy.
sort of reminds me of the Prada store they built on a desert road outside of Marfa, TX
at least the locals got to break the windows
Dr. Tim Morgan at surplusenergyeconomics has done some work around forecasting the trends in discretionary spending up to 2040.
The trendlines portrend a radical reshaping of the consumer markets, and also of society.
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2022/02/13/222-the-forecast-project/
Is see Dr. Tim says near the beginning:
I would definitely agree.
Later, he says:
He doesn’t tell us here that he is only projecting 18 or 19 years, to 2040. He doesn’t tell us what is likely to happen after 2040 either.
He has a lot of nice graphs.
Let’s hope things aren’t any worse than his model predicts. I think that he is basically looking at falling EROEI over the period (according to his model), and assuming the world economy will stick together pretty well. He doesn’t mention the possibility of a decline in population going forward.
In the conclusions sections of his post, he says:
I would very much agree. Tim Morgan writes for a group of people who have not really thought about the limits situation we are facing. This is about as dire a forecast as he might make.
he is no fast collapser. I do appreciate his efforts.
one thing I wonder, is his approach too linear?
he doesn’t (yet?) seem to have any thoughts that as the economy degrades, there may be mostly positive feedback loops that bring it down much faster than in a linear manner.
less discretionary spending = less jobs in those sectors = less workers able to afford discretionary items = even less discretionary spending, even less jobs etc.
the first world decline has been a slow dull slog, but feedback could accelerate things quickly.
I agree. He comes from a generally Energy Return on Energy Invested philosophy, together with an Economics backdrop. Neither of these groups understand how the economy is really structured. Somehow, they assume that the whole system will hang together. Governments, international trade, the electrical system, the internet and many other systems we depend upon will somehow hang together. They believe that if we can somehow reduce the oil consumption of private passenger automobiles, the economy can move on to some sort of electrical existence using very little fossil fuels. If a person thinks about the details, this is as much nonsense as their other beliefs that I detailed in another comment.
Exactly.
I asked Dr. Tim if his models take into account non-linear events like wars, revolutions and failed states scenarios. He confirmed they don’t, which gives me impression that these are not very likely scenarios, especially considering history of homo sapiens.
There are some scenarios though, which I believe can be consistent with his predictions.
One is “Hunger Games-type” scenario, where elites keep the hirerachy structure force/dictatorship/facist state and the extraction of resources is relatively slowly declining.
The second is “1984”, where global, non-nuclear, hybrid conflict takes place. Most of the resources are directed to military and extraction services, so general population will experience slavery, poverty and high fatality rates.
“…there may be mostly positive feedback loops that bring it down much faster than in a linear manner.”
I agree. The global economy can only function healthily within a very narrow band of variability, ideally at a growth-rate of perhaps 2.5% per annum with the occasional recession to clear out the dead wood.
Problems will ricochet and cascade through the system in all sorts of unforeseeable ways when it is faced with an unprecedented irreversible contraction. Systemically critical inputs – parts or raw materials – may suddenly become unavailable or unaffordable. We’ve already seen a foreshadowing of this with urea, carbon dioxide, semiconductors and other shortages during the pandemic.
We only have to look at the history of 20th century to see how disastrous even localised energy deficits can be; how reactive, unpredictable and aggressive humans can become, both individually and collectively. The current networked, and integrated globalised economy is far more brittle and vulnerable to disruptions.
And the financial system that glues it all together relies on human intangibles like confidence, optimism and good faith. Even allowing for the species’ ability to delude itself, those will eventually become casualties of a self-reinforcing contraction without end.
The idea that cool heads might somehow prevail and the process sensibly managed stretches credulity, especially given the unimaginably complex and self-organising nature of the systems involved.
We can just buy luxury homes in the Metaverse (DelusiSTAN) and move there when RealitySTAN collapses.
Tim Morgan repeatedly states that he doesn’t want to be a ‘catastrophist’ or ‘alarmist’:not only is he writing for those who haven’t thought about EROI and limits, but I suggest that this is partly a temperamental problem – he is very British of a certain kind – and he also lives too far away from the centre of things on his nice little holiday island. He was very complacent about lock-downs and their economic effect, for instance.
Even when they had power cuts there, which were only ended when generators were shipped in from the mainland, he said that prepping of any kind is nonsense – an odd conclusion to draw.
His prediction of inevitable ‘de-layering and simplification’ is the definition of collapse (ie from one level of complexity to another) but he won’t acknowledge this; and he hopes that those made unemployed in huge numbers by this process (and automation) will somehow find other jobs or be ‘looked after by the state so that their basic needs will be met’.
I rarely read an article by him these days without wanting to shake him: it’s all so unrealistic as an assessment of the near future: and he does make an unwarranted assumption that things will hang together – in defiance of his own reasoning.
He is utterly naive politically and his comments seem far from what is currently unfolding in that sphere, ie an attempt to impose Totalitarianism and a centrally-directed economy a la WEF.
Another fundamental error is that he believes the powers that be are unaware of hard limits, and that, surely, is incorrect.
I know that Tim Morgan does not get along with at least some of the EROI researchers in the US and elsewhere. This is the reason he no longer mentions EROI in his posts; just his SEEDS model and its output.
Maybe some of us are so positive in nature we think “something” will work, a miracle if you will.
I follow many of the comments here, looking for a ray of sunshine, something that might work.
In the end, we all die, there is no downside to being an optimist.
Dennis L.
“In the end, we all die, there is no downside to being an optimist.”
1. Disillusionment is a companion of optimism
2. Necessity is the mother of invention
3. Be a negative optimist, rather than the hopeful fool
“Another fundamental error is that he believes the powers that be are unaware of hard limits, ”
I am sure that TPTB are very aware of hard limits. I expect this awareness is what drives the WEF agenda.
Until those who excoriate the WEF elites and their agenda themselves start to grapple with hard limits, they are just as much on the wrong track, or an energy-wasting track (I mean psychic energy) as any “ostrich” economic modeler (using William Catton’s term).
If you don’t like the WEF agenda (and I don’t—i sure would prefer to land softly in a nontotalitarian state!), then face reality and come up with a different plan.
I guess Chris Martenson and his Peak Prosperity plan are a kind of response—a local one. Although the fact that his is located in Mass., in the coldest part of the state, is a downside.
I’ll have to read more on Martenson. But I don’t see what it matters that he’s in a cold place. I would have thought that the less migration the better. So cold places have to be made habitable somehow. It never occurred to me before. Use cold places as refrigerators for hot places, while hot places give them food in winder.
I’d much prefer to be free in a hard-landing – and probably die in it – than survive as an intrusively-monitored slave in the WEF soft-landing.
I agree, not only are they aware of energy and resource limits – if probably deluded as to their capacity to deal with them – but also plan to put millions out of work and eliminate whole economic sectors and professions/specialisms.
Such people won’t be left hanging around idle, and there will be no place at all for the elderly.
I vote for ripping of faces… however here in NZ it is unlikely that there will be a serious effort to overturn the CEP….
Today they were negotiating with police to move vehicles to a large off site parking area … they actually opened a lane in front of parliament because it is ‘inconveniencing people’.
Uh.. people? – MOREONS. Is that not the purpose of the protest? The truckers in Ottawa have clogged the entire city centre. F789 the MOREONS.
Remember the Fat Bastard? He is an ultra MOREON. That is how you deal with MOREONS. You inconvenience the f789 out of them.
I see no reason to doubt that discretionary spending is heading sharply down.
his graphs have an interesting takeaway, that right NOW discretionary spending remains a bigger chunk than essential spending.
so there is a lot of room for economic decline in discretionary sectors, perhaps long before the proverbial stuff hits the proverbial fan.
his main point remains though about what he coolly calls PXE, Prosperity (E)Xcluding Essentials.
overall prosperity will continue to decline even as essentials relentlessly continue to take up a larger portion of that prosperity.
this eventually will squeeze PXE to zero.
hopefully 2040 or later for you younger folks.
there probably are many areas of economic concern that could combine to accelerate this process to a date far short of 2040.
I agree that PXE sounds much more professional than PEE.
I rarely click on things here, but I had to take a train so I downloaded this and Bardi’s article just before catching said train. Superb article but I think he is too optimistic, as did some of the commenters at his site. There are multiple knock on effects that produce the Seneca cliff, the most important of which is that restricting FF restricts every other mineral resource, and that exploiting worse and worse mineral fields (including oilfields) further reduces energy to the economy. Then wait until Russia starts limiting exports.
Please let me suggest a new and very interesting article by Ugo Bardi:
“How we Became What we Despised. Turning the West into a New Soviet Union”.
You will find inside also some comparison with Roman Empire and assumptions about what we could face as possible future scenarios.
I hope you will find interesting as I did it.
https://thesenecaeffect.blogspot.com/2022/02/how-we-became-what-we-used-to-despise.html
Thanks, read it and did find it interesting 🤔.
Reminds me of what the old warrior Republican Senator Barry Goldwater prophetized
When he declared that the Western Bloc would eventually become like the Soviet Bloc and they likewise would morph like us.
PS At work a shocked employee declared he was at a Publix Supermarket and the meat section was bare, nothing, nada…
Today stopped at Walmart for prescription and bought some groceries…looked OK and there was some bare shelves…but today is Sunday afternoon.
I don’t shop for meat. Some of the veggies looked smaller than usual.
Pretty much normal overall and this is a busy store. some empty spaces on shelves.
I agree, we will eventually go to rationing, especially for gasoline.
We did it in the 70s and it was a night mare
Waiting for reports of thieves stealing gas from cars.
We are spoiled here in the US and Petro is like a god given right…
That’s coming real soon…they are already targeting catalytic converters for the metals.
Recently read something about eventually cars will be EV and most major manufacturers are in the mode of conversion.
Buying a car will soon be like buying a phone, why your next car could be an EV
Plug-ins seen crushing it in 2022 as ‘flood’ of new models roll out, but waitlist is long
Published: February 11, 2022 17:01
Jay Hilotin, Senior Assistant Editor and Vijith Pulikkal, Assistant Product Manager
Gulfnews.com
2021, overall global car sales grew to around 66.7 million — a modest 4.5% rise from 63.8 million units in 2020.
▶ As a market segment, EV sales went up by 108% in 2021 from 2020 figures, according to Statista.
▶ In terms of geographic distribution, China led the pack in EV sales with 3.3 million units sold; Europe was No. 2, with 2.27 million; the US at No. 3, with 1.7 million, and the rest of the world at about 486,000 units.
▶ In each of the 4 consecutive quarters in 2021, over 1 million EVs were sold. This is just the first step in a journey towards green transport.
▶ This 2022, EVs could see a “breakthrough moment” as the battery-powered trucks enter the mainstream.
Demand for even the high-end EVs, like the Porsche Taycan Cross Turismo (listed at $82,700) is so high the waitlist is reportedly six months long. That’s to say nothing about the Cybertruck (base model at $39,900) with a reported 1.2 million pre-orders
…With a 5-minute battery swapping option (pushed by Nio in China) and improvements in battery technology, ICE’s remaining edge, i.e. quick refuelling, may not be there for long. The biggest reason for EV transition is not sheer economics, or supply and demand. It’s about self preservation of humanity. Highway vehicles release about 1.6 billion tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere each year—mostly in the form of carbon dioxide (CO2).
My take is in agreement with Gail… largely a dream and individual cars will be reserved for rich and famous when one can’t fill up at the pump.
For us peasants…we go back walking …. barefooted…like most of humanity has done…
Back to ‘Shanks’s Pony’…..
Never heard that one. 👍
The expression — believed to be Scottish in origin — derives from shanks’ nag (shanks-naig 1774), referring to the use of shank to refer to the part of the human leg between the knee and ankle.
informal. one’s own legs as a means of transportation. Word origin. C18: from shank (in the sense: lower leg); probably with a pun on the surname Shanks.
The last person I actually heard use the expression was the old chap who taught me book restoration,born in about 1925 or so.
If a knife wasn’t sharp enough, he would exclaim ‘You could ride to London on that!’
And a bad job was ‘A good sight….. for a blind man!’
To wash your hands in the middle of a job that was going well was not done: ‘I might lose my luck’. Now, that must be a very old superstition.
Unfortunately, he lost his mind after a bad fall in his 80’s, never having actually retired and working on happily until then.
RIP, George Bolton, Grantchester man and craftsman.
Yes, the old timers were of a different mindset.
When I was younger man, got interested in hand crafted Windsor Chairmaking and green woodworking…bodgers, In believe they were called. One author exclaimed they were so in tune with their materials and methods of construction it was high tech
Many of these are very serviceable today after over a hundred years of use!
Another great craftsman was named John Brown.. contributed a column for the British magazine Good Woodworking on the subject.
Wrote Welsh Stick Chairs, a classic on discovery when modern boat building made his skill set obsolete and he saw one in a shop and decided to render his vocation to spread the word of craftsmanship
RIP John Brown
Your are welcome Herbie, you bring so many interesting articles that I’m happy I can bring something to you. Kind regards
🥰 Thxs Student…For the most part this is a worthwhile site to visit with many contributions from around the 🌍.
How lucky are we to be alive now!?
Sometimes I feel a little guilty.
It is an interesting article… but I cannot see how BAU Lite would work… the whole thing is barely holding together … inflation is ripping higher… BAU is on the verge of tearing apart.
Also he doesn’t explain the purpose of mass vaccination including children … over and over and over…
I stay with the CEP.
I thought about having Fast Eddy make a speech to the thousands gathered in Wellington .. outlining the CEP…. but why smash all hope… they are having so much fun… it’s like a festival… which is amusing given the MOREONS who got jabbed were told if they doubled up they’d have a summer of freedom … only people enjoying that are here… mostly unvaxxed…
BTW – FE was mocking the MOREONS with a sign promoting Vax Heart Damage and Blood Clots … people stand along the road with other signs… so why not join in the fun! A couple of folks gave Fast the finger… I do hope they get vax injuries…
Then Fast was walking past a pharmacy and there was a big queue – names being called out for the Death Injection .. Fast flashed his sign in front of all those waiting eagerly for their shot… Fast has a Go Pro so if anyone has it in their head to attack the Messiah … they know better cuz they assume he is live streaming … sure ticket to prison… any how only one person – a woman said something — give it a rest mate — so Fast stood in front of her with the sign for 5 minutes…
Before clearing out….
That gas mask is much admired… much admired….
I think Ugo Bardi is also well aware of the likely existence of the covert population reduction plan, reading between the lines of everything he writes.
Really, even if it’s only to get rid of political opponents, it happens in nearly all totalitarian systems.
Given the impending energy and resources crunch, it’s a foregone conclusion.
And, like German industry in the 1930’s, they’ve also found a way to make money out of the process….
industries make money out of war–they always have
dictators seek to get rid of opponents –they always do
they suppress opposition–they must, to survive
———-
Bardi has nothing ‘written between his lines’
there is no ‘covert plan’ to wipe out xx% of the world’s population, it’s a self feeding, all encompassing fantasy—no different to Gates injecting everyone with iron filings.
why not????????
because—(and I know I’m wasting the skin cells on my typing finger here) without ‘population’;, the world’s resources will become unavailable to anyone.
why not?????
because ‘resources’ in the form of raw materials, have no value whatsoever until they are ‘converted’ into something else.
That requires people. ——–In our present circumstances—billions of people. Robots might extract oil from the ground, but robots cannot utilise it., therefore it will have no purpose.
Musk, Gates, Bezos, Koch, even OFW inmates should be able to figure that out
yet i have to keep repeating it. How hard can it be to accept that?
Bezos’s wealth is entirely derived from converting one energy form into another.
That is where wages, profits and the living of all of us are derived, billionaire and pauper alike
Bezos may well have a backyard full of gold bricks. Without the rest of us, they are worth zilch.
i realise that puncturing conspiracy balloons isn’t popular, shoot the messenger if you must, but it wont change the message.
the world’s population is hell bent on wiping itself out, or drastically culling itself. It needs no conspiracy to do it.
A good comment, I agree.
There is currently no reduction plan, but definitely a desire for control and monitoring plans, especially in light of the dual issues. (resource depletion and climate change)
But Xabier is also right about this:
“Really, even if it’s only to get rid of political opponents, it happens in nearly all totalitarian systems.”
When things don’t go as planned, questions like this will come up again.
We have seen how quickly the thin layer of civilization can disappear.
Without any need or real justification, the political and media elite have invented new scapegoats for bad vaccines, namely the unvaccinated.
What will happen when it comes to truly existential threats?
When we ran out of toilet paper, I laughed. But at the same time, I asked myself the question: what will actually happen in the future when it’s not about something as trivial as toilet paper, but about scarce food?
And how quickly will a mob form when those in power present a suitable scapegoat for it?
control etc is part of the survival plan on an individual and tribal basis–the struggle for diminishing resources
Enjoy your delusions, and the midazolam, dear Norman: I believe your shots are already booked………
careful Xabier, FE guards his copyright at every level
One of Ugo’s best articles yet.
I think it could be used to wake some people up, without being dismissed out of hand as a ‘CT nut’, providing a lucid and plausible explanation for many aspects what has happened over the last two years.
This is a great article by Ugo Bardi. A person almost needs to read all of it, to see the parallels of what is happening today, to what happened in the Soviet era. One of the many things he explains is how the system of control game into being without it being centrally planned:
from the first link
Perhaps there is no better contemporary example of what Hannah Arendt meant by ‘banality of evil’ than the technocratic compliance of today’s inept and opportunistic global political class.
It does not look like any USA-UK trade deal will be happening any time soon. For one thing, there is the ‘little’ matter of the prosecution of the soldiers who shot unarmed protestors on Bloody Sunday.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bloody-sunday-resolution-wins-cross-party-support-in-congress-bg372nc0c
> Bloody Sunday resolution wins cross-party support in Congress
The House of Representatives is expected to pass a resolution calling on Britain to implement the Northern Ireland protocol and to abandon plans for an amnesty on legacy Troubles killings.
Some 35 congressmen and women, including senior Republican Party members, have co-sponsored the motion before the House foreign affairs committee, which calls for the implementation of the protocol to “help preserve peace and stability on the island of Ireland” and for the prosecution of British soldiers who killed 14 civil rights marchers in Derry on Bloody Sunday in 1972.
Bill Keating, a Democratic congressman for Massachusetts, said he expected Resolution 888 to pass both the committee and the House of Representatives “in the next few weeks when we are back in session”, which would be a rare display of bipartisan co-operation on Capitol Hill.
Keating said he drafted the resolution as the 50th anniversary of Bloody Sunday approached last month because the families of those killed deserved accountability.
“Those of us in the US on both sides of the aisle feel America is part of the Good Friday agreement so we feel vested in its success,” he said. “It is again being threatened on issues surrounding Brexit and the protocol. It was the UK that brokered the language [on] Brexit so they, in a sense, are trying to orphan their own child as this progresses.”
Keating has secured support from senior Democrats, including Congressman Richard Neal, who chairs the ways and means committee and has threatened to veto any trade deal with Britain if the Good Friday agreement is undermined. He also won the backing of influential Republicans such as Elise Stefanik, who chairs the Republican Conference on Capitol Hill.
Resolution 888 calls “upon British authorities to charge individuals who committed unjustifiable crimes on Bloody Sunday [and] opposes any attempt by the British government to implement amnesty or statute of limitation laws that would end or inhibit investigations and prosecutions of crimes committed during the Troubles, including on Bloody Sunday”.
Keating’s motion was triggered by an approach from an Ancient Order of Hibernians (AOH) division in Pennsylvania. It has asked members to lobby members of Congress on the issue, and helped deliver 34 co-sponsors of the resolution within two weeks. Daniel J O’Connell, AOH president, said he was “floored” by the cross-party support for the resolution.
Fifty years later. Perhaps it is time to forget about the problem.
I see that “a Democratic congressman for Massachusetts” sponsored the legislation. These are folks who look out for the underdogs. If other congress men and women don’t really understand what it is about, and they think it will help those who have been harmed, they are for it.
There are different perspectives about the best way forward, and various reasonable points can be made. Perhaps in the end, we have to look at what the bereaved families, and the community involved, want. It is not unreasonable to expect justice and for the rule of law to be upheld, and better late than never.
The families need to feel that the loss of their loved ones matters, that it is given the appropriate public recognition, and that the perpetrators are brought to justice. None of that is unreasonable. It is what we would all expect, what we all do expect, and it is perfectly reasonable for those families to expect that too.
It can be easy for folk on the sidelines to weigh the merits of various courses, but at the end of the day, justice must be done and be seen to be done, while there is still time. It is not going to help the future, and future reconciliation, if the final chapter of that story is the wrong one.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/bloody-sunday-families-say-uk-government-plans-deny-justice-1.4789043
> Bloody Sunday families say UK government plans deny justice
Thousands of people walk in remembrance of the 50th anniversary of Derry massacre
Families of those killed on Bloody Sunday have said there must be justice for their loved ones and they will “meet head on” the UK government’s plans to introduce a statute of limitations.
Thousands of people attended a walk of remembrance and a memorial service to mark the 50th anniversary of the atrocity in Derry on Sunday.
Thirteen people died when members of the British army’s Parachute Regiment opened fire on an anti-internment march in the city’s Bogside on January 30th, 1972. A fourteenth died later.
“They are trying to deny us justice because they are scared to face justice,” said Mickey McKinney, whose brother William was shot dead.
“We send a very clear warning to the British government as they pursue their [legacy] proposals: the Bloody Sunday families will be ready to meet them head on.
“We will not go away and we will not be silenced.”
Mr McKinney was delivering a statement on behalf of the families at a service at the memorial in the Bogside in Derry on Sunday morning.
The names of the dead and injured were read aloud and a minute’s silence held for the victims.
Among those who attended and who laid wreaths were: Taoiseach Micheál Martin; Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney; Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald; SDLP leader Colum Eastwood; and Alliance deputy leader Stephen Farry.
In Massachusetts Democratic Party politics, I don’t think it is realistic to ignore the Irish.
How many of the shooters are still alive? Old age should be setting in.
VERY INTERESTING
Economist and Professor Michael Hudson speaks on the topic, “How and why the US cannot recover: Is the US a failed state?
Hudson:
Failed state = Failed economy
If a country cannot produce economic growth from within, it must indirectly get it by exploiting other countries. US’s need to exploit other countries has put it in direct conflict with its two major enemies: Europe, led by the England and Germany, and Japan + Korea. Not really fighting against China and Russia at all, even though this is what some articles suggest.
The reason this exploitation can happen is because the US, through its dollar standard, trade preferences, and US investment, is able to draw resources from around the world. This is exactly what the Roman Empire did. The Roman Empire needed the gold and grain (from North Africa) to pay its mercenaries. These mercenaries, in turn, were subduing the countries providing these resources.
The above is the big picture. Now, for some pieces.
The US political system is now paralyzed by the Senate filibuster. US citizens are divided between two different branches of the same Wall Street political party: the Republicans and the Democrats. Without either of these parties being able to pass laws, the law-making responsibility has been passed on to the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court has been filled with right-wing Republicans who have no interest in permitting the government to keep the “rentier interests” in check.
By the rentier interests, Hudson means the FIRE sectors: Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate. There is a symbiosis between finance and real estate. If you want to buy a house, you have to go to a bank. The government taxes wages and real estate, but not finance, which is exempt from taxes.
—
The above is in the first 11 minutes of the video.
Dollar milkshake theory
hmmm “Is the US a failed state?”
no, it is not a failed state.
but will it become a failed state?
yes, it WILL become a failed state, someday.
until then, the Core continues.
If it is any consolation, when it gets there, I’m sure it will become the most successful failed state in history. Americans don’t go in for half-measures.
We can file this one under, ‘Just in case anyone imagined that the cosmos gives a d/mn about humans’. Human life is some kind of cosmic joke for the entertainment of the ‘gods’? LOL
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10506655/GP-plunges-300ft-death-Lake-District-proposed-wife-27-years-earlier.html
> GP, 54, plunged 300ft to his death in the Lake District as he and his wife visited the spot where he proposed to her 27 years earlier
Dr Jamie Butler, 54, popped the question to wife Margaret on Striding Edge (pictued) in the Lake District in 1994.
An inquest heard that when the couple reached Striding Edge, Dr Butler walked on alone to find the exact spot where he proposed and a mist came down, dramatically reducing visibility, before he fell from the mountain.
He suffered significant injuries, including a fractured skull, and his body was later found by mountain rescuers below the ridge before he was pronounced dead.
vacationer in Ibiza died when she fell off a cliff while celebrating her engagement.
Dimitrina Dimitrova, 29, suffered a heart attack brought on by injuries after falling 65 feet from a cliff on Ibiza’s west coast, according to the Daily Mail. Dimitrova had just accepted her boyfriend’s marriage proposal and was jumping up and down in excitement when she lost her balance and fell.
The incident occurred on Tuesday around lunchtime. Local authorities are calling the woman’s death “the result of a tragic freak accident.” Dimitrova had arrived two days earlier to visit her boyfriend and look for work.
Last August, a Polish couple fell to their deaths while taking a selfie near a cliff’s edge in Cabo da Portugal, according to the Daily Mail
Suppose it wasn’t meant to be.
Henry Miller once mused about the randomness of out life events
I’m just wondering if she got the booster. I’ve heard that jumping up and down in excitement and losing one’s balance are both common side effects.
“Do you want me to make it double-sized?”
“yes, honey!”
Oh i love the USA!
…needs to go up one thread to Tim Groves half-measures 🙂
SPAIN
https://www.aol.com/news/ghost-village-emerges-spain-drought-145631476-210122927.html
Hi Gail,
Many thanks for the new article…..always appreciate your take on energy and resources.
Do you have any thoughts on the Baby Boomer generation?
Born 1946 – 1964….still about 20% of US population…richest, highest consuming cohort in US history……expected to retire in droves over the next 10 years…..
Given the declining fertility….the limited prosperity of younger generations….who’s going to buy the stocks and property from the boomers?
Current demographics = deflation….do you think that t the Fed will have to follow the path of the Bank of Japan and buy more…buy everything…in order to keep a floor under asset prices?
market drops 50% half of problem solved
Stocks generally represent assets collected together and used by a talented cohort; very difficult to replace if product is essential; this is balanced by the increase in nominal dollars. If the number of dollars increases faster than depreciation, then a nominal increase in worth.
E.g. Farmland in in the Midwest increased about 22% last year, inflation was 7% so net increase was 15%, any increase less than 7% appears to represent a loss situation. But, when land is liquidated there are taxes, say 25% so the nominal value of the land increased 22%, liquidated value increased 16.5% plus any net income from the land.
It is a game, not everything will increase. BRK has a very good history of getting this idea correct, others not so much. In OFW terms, it is a system.
Dennis L.
I find it fascinating that a sizeable generation of people came of age and had careers in parallel with the post WW2 oil boom….and are now retiring en masse in the twilight of the oil age…
And thus they have little idea about reality: a friend is a fundraiser for Cambridge University, and these people can rarely grasp how things are changing. They surfed on an oil-wave, rich or poor…..
This is a quote from Dennis “ Stocks generally represent assets collected together and used by a talented cohort; very difficult to replace if product is essential; this is balanced by the increase in nominal dollars. If the number of dollars increases faster than depreciation, then a nominal increase in worth.”. Did you copy that out of a text book? Because that is not what I am seeing in the real world 🤪…. Companies are using low interest rates, free government money and buying back their own stock to keep prices up. The U. S stonk market should be down 80 percent right now.
Low interest rates and easy availability of debt help create this situation as well. For one thing, companies can borrow money cheaply and use it to buy back their own stock.
Nope, BRK, observation of real world, I deal in dirt and dirt is not dirt cheap, couldn’t resist, humor, not sarcasm.
Warren recommended “The End of Money” some years back. It looked at the thirties and forties; those in cash were wiped out.
Own a power plant, or stock thereof, it is real, it makes something and something is better than nothing.
Note “nominal” that is not actual wealth, but again, beats nothing.
An aside, some of you might be interested in a fellow named Jim Keller, incredible engineer. He is busy working on AI, fascinating stuff, review his resume, if he is with a company, buy the stock if it is available, human capital.
Dennis L.
What is BRK?
I think he is referring to the stock ticker for Berkshire-Hathaway, Warren Buffet’s holding company.
“Jim Keller”
Processor Jesus.
I am afraid that there are way too many Baby Boomers for the younger generations to support. Also, food supply will become shorter and shorter in total. Also, the US’s huge spending on health care cannot be kept up for the Baby Boomers.
Somehow, the system will be changed so the Baby Boomers get a whole lot less. One possibility is that the US will break up into a group of smaller pieces, perhaps states or groups of states. These smaller units will have the responsibility of each putting together their new plan to care for the elderly (including health care), funding it to the extent that they have extra funds to do so.
I am afraid asset prices are going to fall, regardless of what happens, at least over the longer term. I am afraid that eventually the international financial system pretty much goes away. In the example above, each group of states would have its own currency. The currencies might not be very convertible, making travel difficult.
Thanks Gail,
“Women nearly twice as likely to report side effects from COVID vaccine, study finds”
This research could have hit interesting aspects of immune systems, but I think it is not considering importamt psychological backgrounds.
I personally know many male friends who had pain or various health problems after the jab and relative doses, but they didn’t report them because they think it is not a ‘male’ behaviour to do that.
Something could be expressed like that: they think that ‘male should bear the pain in silence, when it is to do something for the good of society….’
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-study-women-nearly-2x-more-likely-to-report-side-effects-from-covid-vaccine/
Approximately the same ratio can also be found in New Zealand ACC (Accident Compensation Corporation) claims data.
https://www.acc.co.nz/assets/oia-responses/IPA5361-Covid-Vaccination-Claims-Refresh-Jan22.pdf
Women also make the majority of doctor’s appointments. I don’t know the percentage, however.
“Printers warn on growing paper shortages… European printers have warned that industries such as food and consumer goods could suffer significant disruption to their supply chains because of a growing shortage of paper.
“Strikes by thousands of workers at mills owned by forestry group UPM-Kymmene in Finland have exacerbated paper shortage…”
https://www.ft.com/content/6430685f-2754-4e76-a940-eaad4e32bcdb
“For literature lovers in sanction-hit Iran, a new novel has long provided a brief respite from a grinding economic crisis triggered by international pressure imposed over Tehran’s contested nuclear programme.
“But now losing yourself in a good book is becoming harder, as cash-strapped publishers struggle because the price of paper is soaring.”
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220213-novel-crisis-iran-s-books-shrink-as-us-sanctions-bite
“Lebanon’s crash snuffs out Beirut’s fabled Hamra Street.
“Hamra Street represented everything that was glamorous about Beirut in the 1960s and 1970s, with Lebanon’s top movie houses and theaters, cafes frequented by intellectuals and artists, and ritzy shops…”
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/lebanons-crash-snuffs-beiruts-fabled-hamra-street-82857414
“Hardship deepens amidst Syria’s frozen conflict.
“…while the frontlines have been largely frozen for years, an economic crisis is exacting an increasingly heavy toll across the fractured nation. The United Nations says the number of people in need of humanitarian support is greater than at any point since the war began.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hardship-deepens-amidst-syrias-frozen-conflict-2022-02-13/
The industrial food-chain is,in effect, packaging: no wrapping up in leaves, fine cloth, or stuffing in to wooden casks ….
“Asia swaps coal for wood fuel, but emissions still a threat.
“The rebuke of coal has pushed countries like South Korea and Japan to embrace the harvesting of trees to be processed into wood pellets, but environmentalists are warning that this fuel might prove as damaging as the black mineral it is replacing.”
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Environment/Climate-Change/Asia-swaps-coal-for-wood-fuel-but-emissions-still-a-threat
Burning trees is carbon neural. Carbon is sucked out of the air/land into trees and then burned back into the air (CO2) and land (ash). The tree is just a battery a storage device and a concentrator.
Cut down a FOREST and plant a TREE PLANATION in it’s place with one species of fast growing TREE..problem solved
Sort of.
The fast growing tree varieties have not got a high energy content.
Shame on you, Herbie! 🙂
But, but…Artleads …Toilet paper?
Georgia Pacific
Search the newsroom
Toilet Paper & Forests: Wiping Out Misconceptions
Q&A with Georgia-Pacific’s VP of Sustainability John Mulcahy
2020-03 Toilet Paper hero
ENVIRONMENT
Toilet paper is often misunderstood. Much of that results from a big misconception: that toilet paper (and other paper products) harm and shrink the world’s forests. Georgia-Pacific’s VP of Sustainability, John Mulcahy, explains why you can feel good about TP and sustainability.
Q: Why is toilet paper taking such a bad rap?
A: Many people are justifiably concerned about our world’s natural resources and the use of trees to manufacture single use products, like toilet paper. It can seem as if society is being asked to make a choice between trees and products such as toilet paper, paper towels and coffee cups. But you don’t have to choose – toilet paper doesn’t negatively affect the environment the way people assume it does.
Q: What do you tell people who think toilet paper is bad for the environment?
A: As a sustainability leader, the first thing I tell them is that it’s great that they are being conscientious of their environmental impact. We all should think this way. The next thing I tell them is that the forest products industry is one of the most sustainable industries out there, as the demand for forest products creates economic incentives for landowners to take care of their forestland and replant trees after harvesting them. A little-known fact is that the total amount of forested acres in the U.S. has grown by 6% since 1920, in a period where the U.S. population has more than tripled.
Q: So, is deforestation really an issue?
A: It absolutely is an issue. The question isn’t whether deforestation is happening (newsflash: it is happening), but why it’s happening and where it’s happening. Much of the deforestation occurs in areas of the world such as southeast Asia, South America and the horn of Africa. These regions have issues with unclear land ownership, weak property rights and inconsistent laws – all factors that contribute to deforestation. Fortunately, the United States and Canada have strong property rights in place that minimize these risks. In the US, the risk of deforestation is not from paper production but by alternative land uses, such as development and urbanization.
Q: When selecting toilet paper, how can consumers know if they are making environmentally responsible purchases? Should they be looking for eco labels? Is 100% recycled toilet paper the only way to go?
A: Georgia-Pacific, like some other tissue manufacturers, produces both toilet paper made from 100% recycled fiber and toilet paper made from 100% fresh fiber. However, there’s no “right” or “wrong” fiber choice when purchasing toilet paper to tell you if it’s environmentally friendly. The best way to choose is to understand the sustainability practices of the company who manufactured it – if that company is operating in a sustainable way all along the supply chain, then you are making an environmentally-responsible choice. It’s more than just what the product is made of.
Q: What does Georgia-Pacific do from a sustainability perspective? What measures are you taking to protect the environment?
A: We’re 100% committed to being good stewards of the environment, which includes being efficient with resources and reducing our waste. Some of our efforts include generating half of our energy needs from renewable sources, recycling over 2 million tons of recovered paper a year and using industry-leading practices to ensure that our fiber comes from responsible sources.
Our fiber is grown on sustainably managed private and industrial forestlands, and harvested under widely accepted forestry best management practices to protect water and wildlife habitat.
And when you think of forest areas with unique attributes that should be conserved, we do as well. We have an Endangered Forest Mapping Program that just celebrated its 10th anniversary, on which we announced that we have completed the mapping of 6.6 million acres of endangered forests and special areas in the 19 U.S. states where we source wood. You can read more about the huge difference this program is making here.
We have several other sustainability initiatives in the works, including a project to reforest land in California that was devastated by wildfire in 2018 and working with a group to manage longleaf pine habitat in the southeastern U.S., a fire-dependent ecosystem that is home to many important species.
In addition to being environmentally responsible, the products we provide help people improve their lives with societal benefits including shelter, hygiene and convenience. Being an environmental and social steward will always be a part of GP’s vision, so you can feel good about buying a product you love – any one of our great toilet paper brands.
What percent of the World’s population uses toilet paper?
It’s sustainable….I’m serious🤪
Old growth forests sequester far more CO2 than any new-growth forest. Or new tree, for that matter.
Old-growth forests also sequester CO2 in the soil (not just via the leaves and photosynthesis), while building soil and providing habitat for thousands of other species that also sequester CO2 and other greenhouse gases and create more complex and hence resilient biota.
Any particular parcel of land CANNOT be planted with trees indefinitely. Maybe three times. The third time will require fertilizer inputs.
Interesting. Curious as to the uses for the recycled paper; the largest current (?) material in landfill by volume.
Also, there are many millions of roadsides–urban, suburban highway–where where industrially used trees could be planted.
Very little of the carbon in a forest system is in the wood itself, less than 10%. It takes many decades to over a hundred years for a forest system to reach its carbon sequestration potential after clear-cutting.
More like two or three hundred years at the very least.
“[Indian] Industry associations have written to Prime Minister Narendra Modi on deteriorating coal supply to the non-power sector, stating that curtailment in fuel supply by rail as well as road and road cum rail modes over the last few weeks has pushed the sector towards a “catastrophic” situation.
“Moreover, fertiliser being part of the regulated sector is also suffering immensely due to supply crunch from the indigenous sources, they said in a joint representation.”
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/indl-goods/svs/metals-mining/coal-supply-crunch-has-led-non-power-sector-to-catastrophic-conditions-industry-associations/articleshow/89540028.cms
I think that there is a real possibility that India has reached “Peak Coal.” Its production was not growing very rapidly up until 2018, then declined in 2019. Production actually increased a bit in 2020. I expect that it is starting to need higher prices to get the coal out.
“Remember all that missing oil I wrote about last month? The discrepancy between where stockpiles ought to be (based on implied supply and demand balances) and the volumes that had actually been reported or measured?
“Well, those barrels are missing no more. As I feared, it turns out they’ve already been used up — in the refineries and petrochemicals plants of China and Saudi Arabia. That means oil balances are a lot tighter than the International Energy Agency previously thought.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-13/the-world-has-been-using-a-lot-more-oil-than-we-thought
“Crude prices broke out of a holding pattern Friday, surging 3.6 percent as tensions between Ukraine and Russia soared and the US warned a Russian invasion could happen as early as next week.
“Those developments have some analysts expecting prices to reach $100 soon.”
https://www.mrt.com/business/oil/article/Oil-prices-end-week-over-93-16911650.php
Isn’t The slowing of world economies going to make up for this? It seems like every economy is going into recession. I am curious as to why it is taking so long for gas prices to go up. I am suspicious because it seems like they have been pegged at the same number for a long time. I think it’s marketed manipulation
This is strange for the IEA to make big revisions going back 15 years. I don’t know if the US EIA and BP will be making revisions. The different data source never line up very closely, regardless.
IEA is the only one trying to estimate current balances available. This is what seems to be most out of balance.
Some friends told me that there are some interesting studies on excess mortality in Germany related to Covid-19 vaccinations.
It seems in the direction we have already noticed here.
Here we are:
https://osf.io/5gu8a/
https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/vaccine-induced-mortality-part-8
https://corona-blog.net/2022/02/09/unerwartete-sterbefallzahlen-korrelieren-exakt-mit-der-anzahl-der-geimpften/
Maybe it can be useful for additional considerations from this blog.
I believe the one death per 2500 vax seems right. The sad truth is as long as the talking heads say it did not happen society will believe it did not happen and will do nothing. We are learning the greed of pharma companies, the vain glory of Fauci and friends, the power of carefully controlled communications TV, Radio, internet censorship and troll armies to set tone.
I can see pharma rolling out many dozen more vax that kill 1 in 2500 because they can and they make money. Long live the Amish.
Yes, you are right.
It may appear paradoxical, but I do think that communities like Amish represent now the future (of what can stay up).
No-Excuses Farming
Amish farmers find traditional farming methods more profitable than modern methods.
BY GEORGE GENDRON
No-Excuses Farming
“In 1985, in a speech I gave to an Ohio organization that was looking for low-cost ways to make farming profitable, I commiserated at length with the plight of financially depressed farmers. Two Amishmen approached me afterwards, offering mild criticism. ‘We have just finished one of our most successful years,’ one of them said. ‘It is only those farmers who have ignored common sense and traditional farming methods who are in trouble.’ He went on to explain that he belonged to a group of Amish who had, as an experiment, temporarily allowed its members to use tractors in the field. He also was making payments on land that he had recently purchased. In other words, he was staring at the same economic gun that was pointed at English [non-Amish] farmers and he was still coming out ahead. ‘But,’ he said, ‘I’m going back to the horses. They’re more profitable.”
— From At Nature’s Pace: Farming and the American Dream, by Gene Logsdon (Pantheon, 1994)
Showing my age, but remember this from Gene Logsdon….
Old time common sense writer, believe it was printed in one of the several mags back then…Co-Evolution Quarterly perhaps?
Those were the days when we still had a vision …
I imagine if anyone brings up the issue of one death per 2,500 doses, the response (if there is one) is that the deaths from the illness would be much higher than this. This seems to be the excuse for allowing high levels of adverse events.
Am I correct in thinking that the only way to prove a negative is via random control trials?
‘Net zero’ may become as divisive as Brexit… When the rubber hits the road in April, and spiking utility bills combine with a rise in National Insurance contributions and even more inflation, this cost-of-living triple-whammy will convulse British politics, just ahead of crucial local elections in early May…
“…the issue of energy prices, and particularly the role green subsides are playing in driving household and commercial fuel bills higher, is a bit like Brexit. Energy costs, ahead of the May local elections, could yet spark the UK’s next populist political movement.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/02/13/net-zero-may-become-divisive-brexit/
“What could be fairer than a tax on oil and gas’s North Sea winnings? …Labour is pushing for a windfall tax on the industry’s bonanza – and Sunak must grasp that this is not even an ‘un-Tory’ idea…
“North Sea oil producers are ripe for a windfall tax. Without moving a muscle, they have benefited from a doubling in the oil price and a quintupling of the gas price over little more than a year.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/feb/12/what-could-be-fairer-than-a-tax-on-oil-and-gas-north-sea-winnings
“Soaring energy prices have brought massive profits to oil majors — along with fierce criticism from environmentalists and politicians at a time when consumers are left with rising bills…
“…in an apparent move to fend off criticism, TotalEnergies announced this week a discount at the pump in rural areas of France along with a 100-euro voucher for people struggling to pay their gas bills.”
https://www.deccanherald.com/business/business-news/oil-majors-face-backlash-as-era-of-big-profits-returns-1080964.html
As Gail would point out I’m sure. there are two sides to this story. If oil companies know that any time they start making profits, even those to offset the lean years and that they are going to be taxed heavily as windfall profits, then there will be less incentive for them to go out and develop new oil sources. This is almost a reverse of the “privatize the profits and socialize the losses” seen with the banks and hedge funds.
Now we have a situation where it is socialize the profits, (above and beyond the usual customary and reasonable baseline taxes,) and privatize the losses……especially when there is an asymmetric amount of unfair subsidy to the green energy industry. How much in loans and tax subsidies do these amount to I leave up to financial and energy analysts. The tax goal posts are always being changed. Who can plan in this kind of environment in addition to a crazy options system and crazy debt based fiat currencies?
Nobody is out there “helping” the legacy oil and gas companies apparently when prices fall through the floor. But it all boils down to allowing a certain amount of profit to encourage further exploration and this has to be weighed against windfall profits. It is a tough balancing act I think.
Agreed!
Energy cost increases could have an impact on elections. It could also push the economy (and all of Europe’s economy) into recession.
Plenty more of this to come, my goodness: “Protesters demonstrated in dozens of towns and cities across the UK on Saturday to highlight how the spiralling cost of living crisis is affecting the public.
“The demonstrations, co-organised by anti-austerity organisation People’s Assembly and supported by trade unions, were held in at least 25 towns and cities, from London to Glasgow to Bangor.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/feb/12/uk-cost-of-living-protesters-demonstrate-peoples-assembly
“A convoy of vehicles from across the Netherlands brought The Hague’s city centre to a standstill on Saturday, protesting against coronavirus restrictions.
“Inspired by Canadian truckers who congested the capital Ottawa, several hundred vehicles blocked access to the Binnehof, seat of the Dutch government, according to an estimate by public television.”
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220212-canada-style-convoy-blocks-netherlands-the-hague
Yes and they had come very early with coffee and sandwiches and sleeping bags. And when those sandwiches and coffee were all eaten after noon and the police came to tell them that what they were doing was really not allowed, then they closed their lunch boxes and emptied their cups and started their trucks and went back to Mother Wife…. They’d had a great day, that much was clear.
Vive la révolution!
A spiraling cost of living will make the population unhappy!
https://odysee.com/@GrandJury:f/day2:03c
You had to look at this!
This seems to be a multiple day proceeding, in German, patterned after a US Grand Jury, looking at COVID-19 and its response.
https://youtu.be/3jL2qyeZz7Y
what of NZ what of the maidens of the plow?
Climax changeling; its political so the science is bought and sold.
Me, I put my money on another cooling cycle.
Choose your own expert; enjoy global warming while it lasts!!
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/09/10/svensmark-global-warming-stopped-and-a-cooling-is-beginning-enjoy-global-warming-while-it-lasts/
The star that keeps us alive has, over the last few years, been almost free of sunspots, which are the usual signs of the Sun’s magnetic activity. Last week [4 September 2009] the scientific team behind the satellite SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) reported, “It is likely that the current year’s number of blank days will be the longest in about 100 years.” Everything indicates that the Sun is going into some kind of hibernation, and the obvious question is what significance that has for us on Earth.
If you ask the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which represents the current consensus on climate change, the answer is a reassuring “nothing”. But history and recent research suggest that is probably completely wrong. Why? Let’s take a closer look.
Solar activity has always varied. Around the year 1000, we had a period of very high solar activity, which coincided with the Medieval Warm Period. It was a time when frosts in May were almost unknown – a matter of great importance for a good harvest. Vikings settled in Greenland and explored the coast of North America. On the whole it was a good time. For example, China’s population doubled in this period.
But after about 1300 solar activity declined and the world began to get colder. It was the beginning of the episode we now call the Little Ice Age. In this cold time, all the Viking settlements in Greenland disappeared. Sweden surprised Denmark by marching across the ice, and in London the Thames froze repeatedly. But more serious were the long periods of crop failures, which resulted in poorly nourished populations, reduced in Europe by about 30 per cent because of disease and hunger.
It’s important to realise that the Little Ice Age was a global event. It ended in the late 19th Century and was followed by increasing solar activity. Over the past 50 years solar activity has been at its highest since the medieval warmth of 1000 years ago. But now it appears that the Sun has changed again, and is returning towards what solar scientists call a “grand minimum” such as we saw in the Little Ice Age.
The match between solar activity and climate through the ages is sometimes explained away as coincidence. Yet it turns out that, almost no matter when you look and not just in the last 1000 years, there is a link. Solar activity has repeatedly fluctuated between high and low during the past 10,000 years. In fact the Sun spent about 17 per cent of those 10,000 years in a sleeping mode, with a cooling Earth the result.
Perhaps some sacrifices are in order.
https://www.lehman.cuny.edu/news/2020/Intelligent-Life-in-Stars.php
“The sun’s energy has decreased since the 1980s but the Earth keeps warming faster than before.”
https://skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming-basic.htm