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Russia’s attack on Ukraine represents a demand for a new world order that, over the long term, will support higher prices for fossil fuels, especially oil. Such an economy would probably be centered on Russia and China. The rest of the world economy, to the extent that it continues to exist, will largely have to get along without fossil fuels, other than the fossil fuels that countries continue to produce for themselves. Population and living standards will fall in most of the world.
If a Russia-and-China-centric economy can be developed, the US dollar will no longer be the world’s reserve currency. Trade will be in the currency of the new Russia-China block. Outside of this block, local currencies will play a dominant role. Most of today’s debt will ultimately be defaulted upon; to the extent that this debt is replaced, it will be replaced with debt in local currencies.
As I see the situation, the underlying problem is the fact that, on a world basis, energy consumption per capita is shrinking. Energy consumption is essential for creating goods and services.
The shrinking amount of energy per person means that, on average, fewer and fewer finished goods and services can be produced for each person. Some countries do better than average; others do worse. With low fossil fuel prices, Russia has been faring worse than average; it wants to remedy the situation with long-term higher energy prices. If Russia can start transferring its energy exports to China, perhaps the new Russia-China economy, with limited support from the rest of the world, can afford to pay Russia the high prices for fossil fuels that Russia requires to maintain its economy.
In this post, I will try to explain what I see is happening.
[1] It appears that Russia now fears that it is near collapse, not too different from the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union in 1991. Such a collapse would lead to a huge drop in Russia’s living standards, even from today’s relatively low level.
If we look back at the Soviet Union’s energy consumption, we see a strange pattern. The Soviet Union’s energy consumption rose rapidly in the period after World War II. It became a military rival of the US, as its energy consumption grew in the 1965 to 1985 period. Its energy consumption leveled off before the central government collapsed in 1991. In fact, energy consumption has never gotten back to its level in the late 1980s.
[2] The thing that seems to have been behind the 1991 collapse is the same thing that seems to be behind Russia’s current fear of collapse: continued low oil prices.
When we look back at inflation-adjusted oil prices, we see that a long period of low prices preceded this collapse. These low prices were harmful in many ways. They reduced funds for reinvestment, which led to the collapse in oil supply. They reduced the funds available to pay wages. They also reduced the tax revenue that the Soviet Union could collect.
I believe that these chronically low oil prices ultimately brought down the top layer of the government of the Soviet Union. This is because of the physics of the situation. It takes energy to provide the services of the top level of the government. As the total energy that could be purchased by the system fell because of low prices received for exports, it became impossible to support this top level of governmental services. This top layer was less essential than the lower levels of government, so it fell away.
In recent times, there has also been a long period of low prices, since about 2013:
Unless this pattern of low prices can be reversed quickly, Russia as a political entity could collapse. Exports of all of the goods it now produces would likely fall.
[3] While oil prices depend on “supply and demand,” as a practical matter, demand is very dependent on interest rates and debt levels. The higher the debt level and the lower the interest rate, the higher the price of oil can rise.
If we look back at Figure 4, we can see that before the US subprime housing bubble popped in 2008, inflation-adjusted oil prices were able to rise to $157 per barrel, adjusted to the 2020 price level. Once the debt bubble popped, inflation-adjusted oil prices fell to $49 per barrel. It was at this low point (and correspondingly low prices for many other commodities) that the US started its program of Quantitative Easing (QE) to lower interest rates.
After two years of QE, oil prices were back above $140 per barrel, in inflation-adjusted prices, but these soon started sliding down. By the time oil prices dropped to $120 per barrel, oil companies started to complain that prices were falling too low to meet all of their needs, including the need to drill in ever less productive areas. Now we are at a point where interest rates are about as low as they can go. Short-term interest rates are near zero, which is where they were in the late 1930s.
The quantity of funds in people’s checking and savings accounts is at an extraordinarily high level, as well. This is partly because of the availability of debt at these low interest rates.
Thus, even before the Ukrainian invasion, oil prices were raised about as high as they could go, through low interest rates and generous debt availability. With all this stimulus, Brent Spot Oil prices averaged $86.51 in January 2022. Even now, with all the disruption of the attack by Russia against Ukraine, oil prices are below the $120 threshold that producers seem to need. This price issue, plus the corresponding low-price issues for natural gas and coal, is the problem that Russia is concerned about.
Prices for imported coal and natural gas have bounced very high in the last few months, but no one expects these high prices to last. For one thing, they are too high for the European manufacturers that use imported coal or natural gas to stay in business. For example, producers that create urea fertilizer using natural gas find that the price of fertilizer produced in this way is way too high for farmers to afford. For another, the electricity produced by burning the high-priced natural gas or coal tends to be too expensive for European households to afford.
[4] The fundamental problem behind recent low oil prices is the fact that the current mix of consumers cannot afford goods and services produced using the high oil prices that producers, such as Russia, need to operate, pay high enough wages, and do adequate reinvestment.
When the price of oil was very low, back before 1970 (see Figure 3), it was relatively easy for consumers to afford goods and services made with oil. This was the period when the world economy was growing rapidly, and many people could afford to purchase automobiles and buy the oil products needed to operate them.
Once the cost of oil extraction started rising because of depletion, it became more and more difficult to keep prices both:
- High enough for oil producers, such as Russia, and
- Low enough to make affordable goods for consumers, as was possible prior to 1970
To try to hide the increasingly difficult problem of keeping prices both high enough for producers and low enough for consumers, central banks have lowered interest rates and encouraged the use of more debt. The idea is that if a person can buy a fuel-efficient car at a low enough interest rate and over a long enough term, perhaps this will make the vehicle more affordable. Similarly, interest rates on home mortgages have fallen to very low levels. All of this, plus the fact that debt is used to finance new factories and mines, leads to the relationship we saw in Figure 4 between oil prices and debt availability, related to interest rates.
[5] No one knows precisely how much oil, coal and natural gas can be extracted because the quantity that can be extracted depends on the extent of the price rise that can be tolerated without plunging the economy into recession.
If prices of these fossil fuels can rise very high (say, $300 per barrel for oil, and correspondingly high prices for other fossil fuels), a huge amount of fossil fuel can be extracted. Conversely, if energy prices cannot stay above the equivalent of $80 per barrel oil for very long without a serious recession, then we may already be very close to the end of available fossil fuel extraction. Both oil and gas producers and coal producers can be expected to go out of business because prices do not leave a sufficient margin for the required investment in new fields to offset the depletion of existing fields. Renewables will falter, as well, because both building and maintaining renewables requires fossil fuels.
The amount of resources of any kind (fossil fuels and minerals such as lithium, uranium, copper and zinc) that can be extracted depends upon the extent of depletion that the economy can tolerate. Depletion of any kind of resource means that a bigger effort (more workers, more machinery, more energy products) is required to extract a given quantity of each resource. It is clear that the entire economy cannot be transferred to the extraction of fossil fuels and mineral resources. For example, some workers and resources are needed for growing and transporting food. This puts a limit on how much depletion can be tolerated.
What Russia (as well as every other oil producer) would like is a way to get the tolerable oil price up significantly higher, for example, to $150 per barrel, so that more oil can be extracted. The hope is that a Russia-and-China-centric economy might be able to do this. Ideally, the tolerable maximum price for coal and natural gas would rise, as well.
[6] Europe, in particular, cannot afford high oil prices. If interest rates are increased soon, this will make the problem even worse. China seems to have definite advantages as an economic partner.
Europe is already having difficulty tolerating very high prices of imported natural gas and coal. Rising oil prices will add even more stress. Central banks are planning to raise interest rates. These higher interest rates will make loan payments more expensive. These higher interest rates will tend to push Europe’s economy further toward recession.
Given the problems with Europe as an energy importer, China would seem to have the possibility of being a better customer that can perhaps tolerate higher prices. For one thing, China is more efficient in its use of energy products than Europe. For example, many homes in the southern half of China are not heated in winter. People instead dress warmly inside their homes in winter. Also, homes and businesses in northern China are sometimes heated with waste heat from nearby coal-fired electricity plants. This is a very efficient approach to heating.
China also uses more coal in its energy mix than Europe. Historically, coal has been much less expensive than oil. What is needed is a low average price of energy. A small amount of high-priced oil can be tolerated in an economy that uses mostly coal in its energy mix. When all costs are counted, wind and solar are very high-priced energy sources, which contributes to Europe’s problems.
In recent years, China’s consumption of energy products has been growing very rapidly. Perhaps, in the view of Russia, China can use high-priced fossil fuel better than other parts of the world.
[7] Russia realized that the rest of the world is utterly dependent upon its fossil fuel exports. Because of this dependency, as well as the physics-based connection between the burning of fossil fuels and the making of finished goods and services, Russia holds huge power over the world economy.
The world economy should have known about the importance of fossil fuels and the likelihood that the world economy would face depletion issues in the first half of the 21st century, ever since a speech by Rear Admiral Hyman Rickover in 1957. In this speech, Rickover said,
We live in what historians may someday call the Fossil Fuel Age. . .With high energy consumption goes a high standard of living. . . A reduction of per capita energy consumption has always in the past led to a decline in civilization and a reversion to a more primitive way of life.
Current estimates of fossil fuel reserves vary to an astonishing degree. In part this is because the results differ greatly if cost of extraction is disregarded or if in calculating how long reserves will last, population growth is not taken into consideration; or, equally important, not enough weight is given to increased fuel consumption required to process inferior or substitute metals. We are rapidly approaching the time when exhaustion of better grade metals will force us to turn to poorer grades requiring in most cases greater expenditure of energy per unit of metal.
. . . it is an unpleasant fact that according to our best estimates, total fossil fuel reserves recoverable at not over twice today’s unit cost are likely to run out at sometime between the years 2000 and 2050, if present standards of living and population growth rates are taken into account.
I suggest that this is a good time to think soberly about our responsibilities to our descendants – those who will ring out the Fossil Fuel Age. Our greatest responsibility, as parents and as citizens, is to give America’s youngsters the best possible education [including the energy problem of a world with finite resources].
Many people today would conclude that world leaders have done their best to ignore this advice. The likely problem with fossil fuels has been hidden behind an imaginative, but false, narrative that our biggest problem is climate change caused primarily by fossil fuel extraction that can be expected to extend until at least 2100, unless positive steps are made to hold back this extraction.
In this false narrative, all the world needs to do is to move to wind and solar for its energy needs. As I discussed in my most recent post, titled Limits to Green Energy Are Becoming Much Clearer, this narrative of success is completely false. Instead, we seem to be hitting energy limits in the near term because of chronically low prices. Wind and solar are doing very little to help because they cannot be depended upon when needed. Furthermore, the quantity of wind and solar available is far too low to replace fossil fuels.
Few people in America and Europe realize that the world economy is entirely dependent upon Russia’s exports of oil, coal and natural gas. This dependency can be seen in many ways. For example, in 2020, 41% of world natural gas exports came from Russia. Natural gas is especially important for balancing electricity from wind and solar.
North America has historically played only a very small role in natural gas exports; it is questionable whether North America can ramp up its total natural gas production in the future, given the depletion problems being experienced with respect to the extraction of oil and the associated natural gas from shale formations. Continuously high oil prices are necessary to justify ramping up production outside of sweet spots. If drillers consider long-term prospects for oil prices to be too low, the associated natural gas will not be collected.
Europe is especially dependent upon natural gas imports (Figure 9). Its imports of natural gas exceed the exports of Russia and its affiliated countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States, referred to as Russia+ in Figures 8 and 9.
Without the natural gas exports of Russia and its close affiliates, there is no possibility of supplying adequate natural gas exports to the rest of the world.
Diesel fuel, created by refining oil, is another energy product that is in critically short supply, especially in Europe. Diesel fuel is used to power trucks and farm tractors, as well as many European automobiles. An Argus Media report indicates that Russian supplies account for 50% to 60% of Europe’s seaborne imports of diesel and other gasoil, amounting to 4 to 6 million tons of fuel per month. It likely would be impossible to replace these imports, using supplies from elsewhere, without bidding the price of these imported fuels up to a much higher price level than today. Even then, countries outside Europe would be left with inadequate diesel supplies.
[8] Russia’s attack on Ukraine seems to have been made for many reasons.
Russia was clearly frustrated with the current situation, with NATO becoming increasingly assertive within Ukraine itself, even though Ukraine is not itself a NATO member. Russia is also aware that in some sense, it has far more power over the world economy than most people realize because the world economy is utterly dependent on Russia’s fossil fuel exports (Section 7). Sanctions against Russia will likely hurt the countries making the sanctions as much or more than they hurt Russia.
There were also several concerns that were specifically Ukrainian giving rise to the attack on Ukraine. There had been long standing conflicts about natural gas pipelines. Was Ukraine taking too much natural gas out as a transit fee? Was it paying the correct fee for the natural gas it used? Ukraine also seems to have mistreated quite a few Russian-speaking Ukrainians over the years.
Russia has become increasingly frustrated with the small share of the world’s output of goods and services that it receives. The way the economic system works today, those who provide “services” seem to receive a disproportionate share of the world’s output of goods and services. Russia, with its extraction of minerals of many kinds, including fossil fuels, has not been well compensated for the great wealth that it brings to the world as a whole.
Over the years, Russia’s great strength has been its military. Perhaps Ukraine would not be too large a country to do battle over. Russia might be able to eliminate some of its irritations with Ukraine. At the same time, it might be able to make changes that would help to raise what have become chronically low fossil fuel prices. The sanctions that other countries would make would tend to push the required changes along more quickly.
If the sanctions really did push Russia down, the result would tend to push the whole world economy toward collapse, because the rest of the world is extremely dependent upon Russia’s fossil fuel exports. In Figure 1, the laws of physics say that there is a proportional response to the quantity of energy “dissipated”; if a greater output of goods and services is desired, more energy input is required. Efficiency changes can somewhat help, but efficiency savings tend to be offset by the higher energetic needs of the more complex system required to achieve these savings.
If energy prices do not rise high enough, we will somehow need to get along with very little or no fossil fuels. It is doubtful that renewables will last very long either because they depend upon fossil fuels for their maintenance and repair.
[9] If higher energy prices cannot be achieved, there is a significant chance that the change in the world order will be in the direction of pushing the world economy toward collapse.
We are living in a world today with shrinking energy resources per capita. We should be aware that we are reaching the limits of fossil fuels and other minerals that we can extract, unless we can somehow figure out a way to get the economy to tolerate higher prices.
The danger that we are approaching is that the top levels of governments, everywhere in the world, will either collapse or be overthrown by their unhappy citizens. The reduced amounts of energy available will push governments in this way. At the same time, programs such as government-funded pension plans and unemployment plans will disappear. Electricity is likely to become intermittent and then fail completely. International trade will shrink back; economies will become much more local.
We were warned that we would be reaching a time period with serious energy problems about now. The first time came in the 1957 Rickover speech discussed in Section 7. The second warning came from the 1972 book, The Limits to Growth by Donella Meadows and others, which documented a computer modeling approach to the problem of limits of a finite world. The Ukraine invasion may be a push in the direction of more serious energy problems, emerging primarily from the fact that other countries will want to punish Russia. Few people will realize that punishing Russia is a dangerous path; a serious concern is that today’s economy cannot continue in its current form without Russia’s fossil fuel exports.
Hey mike — let’s meet in the pie shop hahahahaha…. You took all those shots.. for nuthin hahahahaahahahahaahahahaa
https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/queenstown/vaccine-passports-mandates-may-go-nz-works-woo-tourists-pm
Ya gotta laugh at these idiots running their governments into the ground. They destroyed their economy with their stoopid lockdowns and now all of a sudden it’s safe to vacation in NZ. Why? Because you chased away people wanting to spend money in NZ. The same thing happened in New York City. The local officials ruined the local economy, had leave or close up shop. Mid town Manhattan office buildings became vacant. Property owners and landlords defaulting on their loans. Now by a miracle, the City is now safe to come back to and visit Broadway.
What a bunch of incompetent buffoons.
Or not. 2019 is over. We will never return to that. They are not attempting to right the sinking Titanic – that is not possible.
What if the plan was to convince as many as possible to inject… then to encourage the highly contagious version of the virus to cross borders… and spread throughout highly leaky vaxxed populations — for the purpose of creating more dangerous mutations?
Obviously the more injected people that get infected — the greater chance of realizing more dangerous mutations.
This is not rocket science. We only had a Nobel Prize winning virologist along with other scientists (Bossche, Bridle, Alexander etc…) warning that this is what will happen if they continue to inject into a pandemic.
you can always tell the h and a keys on eddy’s keyboard
the letters are worn off
Let’s check in on norm
https://youtu.be/sW08LBPl1II
Let er Rip – in pursuit of Devil Covid https://apnews.com/article/covid-health-europe-germany-b51a03b82da28b2be49387394ae04fde
Maybe there is a prize for the leader of the country where it emerges first?
another “good” one. Why not?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/she-chased-tornadoes-boston-meteorologist-mish-michaels-dies-at-53/ar-AAVcHQv?ocid=msedgntp
“Her cause of death was not disclosed…”
She chased tornadoes!
then vaxicide chased her!
Slowly then less slowly they are normalizing deaths of healthy people… you get to the point where the MOREONS start seeing 1 of every 4 or 5 people they know die… and they think nothing of it… oh he died..just died.. no reason …just died…
Then they go for another booster… cuz Fauci said Booster Good
Hopefully we get some mass shootings soon — anything that exterminates more MOREONS.. is good
hahahaahhahhahaha…. cuz not enough vaccinated is the problem hahahaahahahah
Yup https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1504470293204529155/photo/1
Hong Kong can ease pandemic-control regime in 6 to 8 weeks if 2 key conditions met, government adviser says
In an exclusive interview with the Post, Professor Gabriel Leung lays out road map for city to relax social-distancing rules
Hong Kong must first fully vaccinate 90 per cent of elderly and procure million courses of antiviral drug Paxlovid to shield vulnerable against ‘exit wave’ of infections, he says
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3170888/hong-kong-can-ease-pandemic-control-regime-6-8?module=lead_hero_story&pgtype=homepage
Vaccine!!! https://t.me/VigilantFox/3401
UK data showing the triples are failing, and perhaps backfiring with greater rates of infection. WHO has warned against them for concerns over ineffectiveness or perhaps weakening immunity by pumping long-lasting foreign genetic material and Spike protein in the body.
https://twitter.com/P_McCulloughMD/status/1503343550997667848/photo/1
NOTE the bar graph below shows rates per 100,000, so it removes the confounding variable of differing data set sizes across vaccine status. Its the best form of comparison to see what is really happening.
those who prefer strawmen are not interested in the science of VAIDS.
ITALY’S UNELECTED DICTATOR BEGINS CALL FOR IMPENDING RATIONING “ONLY IF NECESSARY”, BLAMES UKRAINE WAR
Draghi in conferenza stampa: “No allarmi per guerra in Ucraina, i razionamenti ci saranno solo se necessari” – la Repubblica
https://www.repubblica.it/politica/2022/03/17/news/draghi_conferenza_stampa_decreto_riaperture-341780799/
Can we get some photos of the epic number of blasted russian war machines?
https://www.bitchute.com/video/yrwD23iIvO3M/
https://t.me/robinmg/17312 hahahahahaha
A happy St. Patrick’s day to one and all!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1504554373665406976
Wheat imports account for around 90% of Africa’s $4 billion trade with Russia, according to the AFDB, requiring the move to “really drastically raise food production” in the continent.
https://www.rt.com/news/552176-ukraine-conflict-food-crisis/
They can use Russian nat gas to make the fertilizer? They can use their gold reserves to buy John Deer combines? They have well watered land that is empty and waiting for wheat?
How does this work?
Africa is in poor shape with its high population as well as its high level of food imports.
Boof!
From The Daily Mail:
> Cost of living CATASTROPHE: Britain faces double-digit inflation for first time in 40 YEARS with mortgages, fuel and food prices set to soar
Britain is facing double-digit inflation for the first time in 40 years, with mortgages, fuel and food prices set to soar as the Bank of England warned that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will hammer the economy this year.
The Bank of England raised interest rates again today amid fears the rate of inflation will increase to around 8 per cent in the coming months – or even hit double digits.
Families are facing more mortgage pain after the Monetary Policy Committee lifted the base rate from 0.5 per cent to 0.75 per cent as it tries to deal with spiking price rises.
The Bank admitted that inflation looks likely to sail past its prediction of a 7.25 per cent peak, potentially by several percentage points, in the wake of the Ukraine war.
However, while the Bank’s main remit is to control inflation, the global nature of the problems means the lever of interest rates might only have a marginal effect.
UK plc [sic] is already expected to suffer a severe slowdown with anxiety that it could even slip into recession amid soaring prices – the dreaded ‘stagflation’ scenario.
But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has seen financial markets trim their expectations for rate rises this year, with central banks in the UK and worldwide predicted to tread more carefully.
Meanwhile, ministers have been warned Britain is heading for a ‘de facto lockdown’ caused by soaring fuel prices.
Conservative former minister Robert Halfon said parents will soon no longer be able to afford to take their children to school while workers will struggle to get to work.
Economists have also estimated that Sunak will raise taxes by two per cent of GDP in his Spring Statement next week.
If Sunak’s tax rates are implemented, it will raise the UK tax burden by around £46 billion, according to the Institute of Fiscal Studies….
Plenty of room to cut back.. not quite at the boiled rice mixed with cat food stage….
double-digit = boof-boof!
When Will be next depression recession?
it’s already here, but your gov doesn’t want you know, so they will fake the numbers until it becomes impossible to hide it any longer.
right NOW, inflation is way higher than your gov says, so if true inflation numbers were used, your GDP would be shrinking.
Nice list – f789 em all … remember what happens when you try to warn someone about the Death Shots as you browse this
https://markcrispinmiller.substack.com/p/in-memory-of-those-who-have-died-eaa
A lot of “cause of death unknown”. Perhaps Dunce can explain why it wasn’t the vaccines because we all know these vaccines are 100%.
Dunce is gone… norm? mike?
Jessica Mora Urbina died suddenly on 2/22/22 at the age of 22. Is that so?
Under “See older updates,” Jessica is pictured carving a pumpkin, dressed as Santa Claus, and wearing a surgical mask:
https://www.gofundme.com/f/jessica-mora-urbina
Methinks this “death” is suspect.
2/22/22 at age 22!
the universe is laughing at this one.
wasn’t there another one where the guy died on his 22nd birthday?
the universe goes:
nudge nudge wink wink.
Norman, I will lift the discussion, that we have just started, into the open space, so that it can be a distinct discussion.
I will agree with you that humans are primarily, or ‘really’, seeking existence; the selective natural mechanisms select traits that are aimed at existence, and everything is ultimately, naturally, ordered toward that. As you say, the rest is ‘window dressing’ (which is also ordered to the same).
Your next point comes to ‘responsibility’. We can talk and see the problems with endless growth, so I do not think that it is a problem with human brains, per se (although, I will concede that there is an issue there.) I tend to frame it in terms of historical economic and political development.
There is no need for everyone to see the problems, although they actually do if they are explained, and ever more people, these days, do see the problems. The problem, as I see it, is that we have an economic system that is based on constant growth in order to function, and a political class that essentially represents that economy.
For most of our history, human societies have been stratified, and a ruling class would take responsibility for the hard decisions, and they would make (or fail to take) rational decisions. Bourgeois ‘democracy’ is simply the capitalist state in motion. The capitalist state is 100% incapable of acting in a responsible manner.
So, for me, it is not so much a problem of human brains, which, from what I see, can actually see the problems. Our real problem is the capitalist states. We would need fundamental revolutions to depose the capitalist states, and to reconstitute society, and life, on a rational basis. But there is zero chance that the capitalist states are going to allow that.
So, we have to look at the broader historical picture of how history will move, as it inevitably will, from here. Capitalism will fall anyway, and it is only a matter of time now. By the same token, it is a growth based economic system, and it will not survive without the constant growth, which is soon coming to an end.
So, the problem of capitalism, and of the capitalist state, will solve itself, and in the fairly near future. We are then going to have to go all out to try to mitigate the potentially long-term dangers that capitalism will leave behind, especially the nuclear fuel dumps. It can be done, with deep burying, but the capitalist states are not doing it. So that will be ‘top of the list’.
(SNP are inclined to end nuclear power in Scotland, and hopefully to deal properly with the spent fuel. Therefore I support independence now, if only for that. If British State ‘nationalists’ do not like that, then frankly they can GFT. Otherwise, we are going to have to clean up their mess when the time comes.)
In terms of the much broader historical perspective, I would point out that the boom-bust population cycle is very common in species and ecosystems. In fact it is now thought that it maximises the diversity of species within ecosystems. So boom-bust is actually a ‘good’ thing for ecosystems, and there is nothing ‘wrong’ with that human tendency; it is a structural part of how ecosystems, and species within them, act.
And in terms of the ‘worst’ scenario, of humans presently enacting a ‘great extinction’, that is actually also a part of how the planet works. The fossil record suggests that mass extinctions actually lead to greater diversity of species, and that they ‘clear the ground’ for mass explosions of evolution, which, indeed, is how all of the present species got here. So that too is actually a ‘good’ thing (as counter-intuitive as that might seem.)
So, in terms of the ‘big picture’, there is not really any ‘problems’, which exist rather within narrower perspectives. Humans are, obviously, temporal beings, with their own sense of time, and their own priorities, which are inevitably ordered to their own ‘good’, their own interests.
So, it is what it is, there are economic and political problems, which will solve themselves, given time, and maybe not much longer now. And in terms of the broader picture, there are not really any ‘problems’ anyway. The planet is just doing what it does, and that includes boom-bust population cycles and even mass extinctions. It is all a part of how the planet ‘works’.
So, I ‘affirm all things’. History is what it is, and it was never going to be any different to how it was, otherwise it would have been different. But humans tend to be ‘moralistic’, to make value judgements that things are ‘wrong’, and that they ‘should not be’, which is OK in everyday life, but in terms of broader perspectives, it tends to lead straight to ‘pessimism’, which I personally have no time for.
Depression is a serious clinical condition that is not to be encouraged, and nothing good will, actually, come from it in the present situation. So, I try to encourage more positive perspectives that show how things will ‘work out’, and how everything is really fine, anyway, if only it is seen in a broader perspective.
I very much agree:
“The planet is just doing what it does, and that includes boom-bust population cycles and even mass extinctions. It is all a part of how the planet ‘works’.”
I don’t remember encountering this before, but it likely is true.
“In fact it is now thought that it [boom-bust cycles] maximizes the diversity of species within ecosystems.”
Boom bust seems to be the way the population of other species seems to work. We shouldn’t be surprised if it works for humans as well.
Gail, here are a couple of links that may interest you.
> Boom-bust population dynamics increase diversity in evolving competitive communities
Abstract
The processes and mechanisms underlying the origin and maintenance of biological diversity have long been of central importance in ecology and evolution. The competitive exclusion principle states that the number of coexisting species is limited by the number of resources, or by the species’ similarity in resource use. Natural systems such as the extreme diversity of unicellular life in the oceans provide counter examples. It is known that mathematical models incorporating population fluctuations can lead to violations of the exclusion principle. Here we use simple eco-evolutionary models to show that a certain type of population dynamics, boom-bust dynamics, can allow for the evolution of much larger amounts of diversity than would be expected with stable equilibrium dynamics. Boom-bust dynamics are characterized by long periods of almost exponential growth (boom) and a subsequent population crash due to competition (bust). When such ecological dynamics are incorporated into an evolutionary model that allows for adaptive diversification in continuous phenotype spaces, desynchronization of the boom-bust cycles of coexisting species can lead to the maintenance of high levels of diversity.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s42003-021-02021-4
> Mass extinctions made life on Earth more diverse
In the past half-billion years, Earth has been hit again and again by mass extinctions, wiping out most species on the planet. And every time, life recovered and ultimately went on to increase in diversity.
…. Massive volcanic eruptions drove the extinctions at the end of the Devonian, Permian and Triassic periods. Global cooling and intense glaciation drove the Ordivician-Silurian extinctions. An asteroid caused the end-Cretaceous extinction of the dinosaurs. These “Big Five” extinctions get the most attention because, well, they’re the biggest. But lots of lesser yet still civilisation-threatening events occurred as well, like the pulse of extinction before the end-Permian event.
…. But life bounced back and the recovery was rapid. 90% of mammal species were eliminated by the asteroid, but they recovered and then some within 300,000 years, going on to evolve into horses, whales, bats and our primate ancestors. Birds and fish experienced similarly rapid recovery and radiation. And many other organisms – snakes, tuna and swordfish, butterflies and ants, grasses, orchids and asters – evolved or diversified at the same time.
…. Despite this chaos, life slowly diversified over the past 500m years. In fact, several things hint that extinction drives this increased diversity. For one, the most rapid periods of diversity increase occur immediately after mass extinctions. But perhaps more striking, recovery isn’t only driven by an increase in species numbers.
In a recovery, animals innovate – finding new ways of making a living. They exploit new habitats, new foods, new means of locomotion. For example, our fish-like forebears first crawled onto land after the end-Devonian extinction.
…. Extinction doesn’t only drive this process of speciation. It also drives evolutionary innovation. It’s not a coincidence that the biggest pulse of innovation in life’s history – the evolution of complex animals in the Cambrian Explosion – happened in the wake of the extinction of the Ediacaran animals that went before them.
Innovation may increase the number of species that can coexist because it allows species to move into new niches, instead of fighting over the old ones. Fish crawling onto land didn’t compete with fish in the seas. Bats hunting at night with sonar didn’t compete with birds that were active during the day. Innovation means evolution isn’t a zero-sum game. Species can diversify without driving others extinct. But why does extinction drive innovation?
…. But, in the lulls after an extinction, evolution may be able to experiment with designs that are initially poorly adapted, but with long-term potential. With the show’s stars gone, the evolutionary understudies get their chance to prove themselves.
…. Creative destruction
Life isn’t just resilient, it thrives on adversity….
https://theconversation.com/mass-extinctions-made-life-on-earth-more-diverse-and-might-again-122350
Thanks!
Also
“When such ecological dynamics are incorporated into an evolutionary model that allows for adaptive diversification in continuous phenotype spaces, desynchronization of the boom-bust cycles of coexisting species can lead to the maintenance of high levels of diversity.”
This oozes affirmation fallacy. It is neuro-typical for a species vested in its fantasies.
As if diversity is the only measure of success. One can argue that the ‘cloner herd’ of humans are wildly successful, yet perfectly reproductive-compatible with each other. If you talk with one; you’ve got all the collective knowledge, dreams, hopes and egotistic fantasies of them all. With few exceptions. Just look around, it is ever pervasive from the lowliest “grunt” classes to uptown snob cliques. All retch and no vomit.
Lotka–Volterra is just another simplistic nonlinear model that leaves a trail of destruction and suffering behind. How about researching other nonlinear models such as the Mandelbrot set where the edge between the orderly and infinite is defined as a reflection of itself when viewed through the lens of a fractal. If something has a tendency for the divergent, it is simply ignored-discarded, the same is true for the convergent. Whenever something is convergent or divergent can be proven within bounds. And within its “temptations” it’s trial and error the “usual” way.
And isn’t life rather “fractal” in its very nature? An endless repetition of that which works with the border between unbound infinity and stagnation defined as a reflection of itself.
Considering an entire civilization (of MOARons + tryhard cloners) as “divergent” seems as a rather crude method of of caressing the unknown. Obviously it’s going to go south rather fast when the primates egotistic fantasies got access to cheap resources.
Another nail in that coffin seem to be the fact that the most expressive (IQ/conscientiousness) of the ‘herd’ got little interest in perpetuating the folly given the situation at hand. And isn’t that rather curious?
It is a fact of life that it seeks maximum complexity in its expressiveness given the ecosystem. Catastrophe is only mandated when it gets stuck in perpetual repetition. Such as optimizing for genetic diversity for its own sake.
With other words, it’s just a lame excuse for coping with the egotistical fantasies.
With maximum diversity, it is possible to dissipate energy in a huge number of ways. The system, as a whole, would seem likely to have considerable resilience, because whatever problem arises, at least some species will survive. So the large number of species does serve a purpose.
Genetic diversity isn’t the only measure of complexity. One must take the embodied expressions of the existing combinatorics into consideration as well.
For example, flora, fauna, technologies, knowledge, art, etc., when devising new ‘optimizer’ strategies.
A software analogy:
The programmer who doesn’t know how to write good software isn’t the good start of something new. ‘Refactoring’ is a continuous process of learning and adapting to a new set of circumstances as it becomes burdensome to maintain the legacy.
“But humans tend to be ‘moralistic’, to make value judgements that things are ‘wrong’, and that they ‘should not be’, which is OK in everyday life, but in terms of broader perspectives, it tends to lead straight to ‘pessimism’, which I personally have no time for.”
what?
why make value judgements about pessimism and depression?
the evolved human species is just doing what it does, being optimistic or pessimistic, being depressed or elated, neither is right or wrong, they merely “are”.
why not affirm ALL things, including pessimism and depression and war and peace etc?
the universe is just doing what it does.
it is what it is.
“….which is OK in everyday life, but….”
why make a special value judgement about “everyday life”?
There is a lot to unpack in that thought, as obvious as it might be, once it is unpacked.
I will come back to it. It is late here, and I am chilling to some jazzy drum & bass, and editing some folders.
In the foreseeable.
Yeah; what is wrong with pessimism? It only becomes a problem when associated with a subjective “oh noes” experience. How about the ultimate ones for people immersed in fantasy and the myopia of ordinary:
1. Death is inevitable (well, yeah, life goes on)
2. Extinction isn’t optional (evolution’s gonna evolve)
3. You’re less unique than what your palate desire (elitist fantasy)
4. Your offspring? (See 3.)
And isn’t survival instinct rather pessimistic:
“If something seems too good to be true it likely isn’t.”
Don’t get exposed to attachments. Most of them seem to share a characteristic with evolutionary traps as they tie you down and reveals your exposure in society.
Live immediately and project realistic goals achievable without much of the whims and wishes of other actors who’s mostly clueless about their ‘optimizers’ of fantasy. Be identifiable through competence and industriousness.
Mirror,
thanks for your expanded viewpoint, it makes a lot of sense.
before responding to it, i want to put in this link, which i came across the other day, written by Benjamin Franklin
http://www.wampumchronicles.com/benfranklin.html?fbclid=IwAR1pmvXt6SKGChFokd-SqIA45mP5Nowd_J3jJ01zvUNcH2GhZ7c7Qf59sVY
it concerns the structure of native American society, pre the ‘white invasion’ I strongly recommend reading it
it has only been since this period, ( Franklin writing in the 17/1800s,) that we have had democracy, courtesy of fossil fuels.
prior to that, our stratified society wasn’t a pleasant place to live, but by and large everyone muddled along in their mire.
It kept our numbers in check, whereas exploding population is now the root cause of all our problems.
We cannot accept that microbial life is the dominant life form on this planet, we invented religion to confirm that we are. Big mistake.
When we depart this earthly paradise, microbes will be unaware of our demise. If microbes somehow departed, we would all be dead in a week.
Who then is the ruling life form?
Being ‘rich’ didn’t bring much soceital elevation either. I always think that the pinnacle of civilisation is having fresh water delivered and body wastes removed without effort.
we have only had that for little more than a century. Which in my book makes it abnormal–
We might imagine that we have overcome microbial life forces, but a century ot two is nothing to them. They are merely regrouping, waiting until our fossil fuel walls crumble. Then they will invade again, only we will have not immunity against them.
They are part of ”the planet doing what it does”—the ultimate defence against the out of control life form that we have become, the global fever if you like.
Covid has been symptomatic of that. We intruded too deeply into animal territories, they fought back with a weapon we could not see or defeat. It disrupted our entire commercial structure, possibly to the point of collapse. Already our food supplies are looking precarious, and all out war a strong possibility.
We are trying to steal the planet’s future. Maybe we’ve finally overstepped the mark.
“We cannot accept that microbial life is the dominant life form on this planet ..” – great reminder Norm although I’d say that accept might not be the right word. Most are not even aware.
yes–i think ‘not aware’ would have been more accurate tbh
”CIVILIANS FLEEING FROM MARIUPOL: “UKRAINIAN MILITIAMEN HELD US HOSTAGE” – VIDEO’ [..] ‘Residents evacuated from Mariupol (Ukraine) spoke about the situation in the city when Ukrainian militiamen entered their apartments to shoot from convenient positions.
According to the women, the civilians acted as human shields and had no chance to leave the city.”
https://voxnews.info/2022/03/17/civili-in-fuga-da-mariupol-miliziani-ucraini-ci-tenevano-in-ostaggio-video/
OMG – I’ve seen people get more upset when the pizza boy arrives 10 minutes late hahahahaha
Keep in mind if this was a real war … would you not shut off the energy to your for a day or two…
Currently on the BBC news home page, ‘Must See’ section.
Covid: Why US students are staging walkouts over masks
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-60745568
You thought the BBC have an item on students protesting because they have to wear masks? Not likely. These students are not happy because they DON’T have to wear a mask, or rather, others don’t.
“Will Wysoglad, a high school senior in Illinois, went viral after posting video diaries documenting how he was repeatedly sent home because he went to school mask-less. An Illinois judge had recently ruled schools couldn’t require masks.
But while two-thirds of American schools have dropped mask requirements, there are students fighting to keep those requirements in place over public health concerns. That includes Leif Aucoin, a theatre major sophomore in Nevada.
We asked both students why they were protesting, and how mask requirement changes in schools were affecting them.”
Gotta keep the propaganda going.
They really are totally brainwashed, the poor things. A teenager was nervously waiting for me to finish up at the ATM (cash machine), and I kindly told him he didn’t have to wear that mask. He insisted he did. I assured him there weren’t any studies that showed that they worked. He just looked at me, glassy-eyed. “It’s a necessary precaution to keep everyone safe.” I sighed and said “no, it’s not”, and left. It’s really depressing. Perhaps it’s just as well that the world is ending, because these creatures have no hope of survival in anything resembling the real world. Kid looked like he couldn’t wait to get back to the Metaverse.
Nuke everything.
My university just sent out an email to all staff saying:
“Face coverings will continue to be worn at the University until at least Friday 1 April when spring break commences, and guidance in respect of the use of face coverings going forward will follow in the weeks ahead. [Face coverings still mandatory on public transport and in most indoor places in Scotland – why I still work from home]
Twice weekly lateral flow testing being phased out mid-April.
But:
“Vaccination remains our best defence against the virus, and the need to get all doses of the vaccine was stressed again by the First Minister. We would encourage our staff and students, who are able to do so, to get fully vaccinated.”
This is from professors who are at the top of their game (doing as they are told, not rocking the boat), and something like this has been the standard wording every CV19 email we got since the bioweapons became available. I am pretty sure that all colleagues in my team are fully vaxxed (you can tell – they take a morning or afternoon off to go get the shot), and all are up for more.
1) Is that a portent of an April fools joke?
2) We now know there is NO such thing as fully vaccinated. Chief Medical Criminal aka Tony Fauci is now imploring a 4th shot because the first three worked so well. He also is recommending yearly booster shots which that probably means in between boosters of the yearly boosters.
Sure, lets keep jabbing people with the same crap that didn’t work the previous times in hopes it works now.
1) Is that a portent of an April fools joke?
It might well be.
The annual bonus booster (5x the dose of a standard shot)…. in addition to the monthly standard shots hahaha….
It is the exact same on US campuses, MoO, down to the campus wide weekly emails. But I see the logic under it all, since academia staff needs to be reduced. but also let us be honest, this vaxx is a dud as a population reducer and everyone in the department appears to be in rude health. still I prefer not to take chances. I got lucky that there was an online class no one wanted to teach, so I taught it on condition I could teach it from anywhere.
I concur: same email messaging at the university where I work. Although they’ve largely dropped the mask requirement on campus, following the relaxation of local county health guidelines. Masking is now “strongly recommended,” regardless of vaccination status. They do require masks in classrooms but… get this… you can remove your mask while speaking in class.
I feel sorry for students who were required to “vaccinate” to remain enrolled at their universities. Regardless of whether they’ll be harmed or not by the injections, they are, without question, victims of trauma (we all are, to greater or lesser degrees, at this point). I have yet to see any student in my building go without a mask. I see students wearing them as they drive to campus and park their cars. Last week, I saw one student walking alone outside and wearing a mask while talking on their cell phone. I think “Strongly recommended” is sufficient to invoke fear of non-conformity on this campus.
I know the university is waiting for the legal result of the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals case over the federal contractor “vaccine” mandate. This is the last component of the Biden “vaccine” mandate left standing. A nationwide injunction against the federal contractor mandate was issued by the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Georgia and the government appealed the injunction. Oral arguments on the appeal are scheduled for April 8, 2022. So, for now, the university is in a holding pattern. They no longer send out threatening emails or letters from HR with deadlines for uploading proof of “vaccination.” They do, however, continue to require weekly testing for us “unvaccinated” employees. No testing requirements for the “vaccinated,” of course. I figure they’re hoping to grind down the “unvaccinated” with the inconvenience and unpleasant, invasive practice of weekly testing. That’s about all they can do at this point, legally speaking, to nudge employees toward “vaccination.”
It’s going to be interesting seeing the fallout of the April 8, 2022 arguments. It appears that the battle is already lost for the pro-“vaccine,” pro-mandate idiots in government and they simply haven’t publicly admitted defeat. The federal contractor “vaccine” mandate is their last stand.
“I feel sorry for students who were required to “vaccinate” to remain enrolled at their universities. ”
No kidding. That seemed to be quite common in the USA. I am not sure that any university / college required that here in the UK. But I am pretty sure that due to the non-stop propaganda from the universities, the large majority of students are vaxxed. All students that either arrived in the UK from overseas or left the UK to study abroad are vaxxed.
Foreigners coming to my university aren’t allowed in without providing proof of “vaccination.” This applies to all appointments (e.g. students, visiting researchers, postdocs, instructors, etc.). I suspect the same policy is in place for many US universities.
It’s a terrible price to pay and I’m surprised to see a fair number of foreigners willing to pay it.
How hard is it to take a year off …. and did we notice even a single significant protest against this mandate?
They are zombies in MOREON training institutions… they are like mike — no harm… just do it to fit in and get around
There was a student-led petition at my university. A PhD student argued that mandatory “boosters” weren’t warranted due to the first round of mandatory “vaccinations.” Last signee count, if I recall correctly, was over 1,300 people. The petition was turned in to the university higher-ups and the story made the local news. As for official university response to the petition: silence. The policy on mandatory “boosters” for students was maintained.
Not good enough — and easily ignored.
They need to walk the walk — reject the injection and take a gap year. How difficult is that?
If enough buy into that the school is screwed and is forced to back down.
I guess that is too inconvenient for students these days… they’ll sign an online petition cuz it’s easy – and involves zero sacrifice – and when it inevitably fails — they roll up the sleeve.
We’ve got two kids with us — they both are on gap years working — cuz they said shove your f789ing vaccine mandate up your ass to Otago U.
Good, points Eddy. These points should have come from university faculty as well. The scamdemic has certainly been a teachable moment and all across the US the “teachers” have failed their students.
The education system has been repurposed to ensure that there is minimal resistance to the CEP.
What is required is animals that go willingly and gleefully through the doors of the abattoir…
Notice how many post smiling selfies after receiving their death shots.
it’s like a murderer being injected on death row — and before the injection kicks in – he says hey guys – one last request — I wanna take a selfie — do you mind to upload it to my FB page – here’s my login in details…
Hahahahahahaha….
It is.. it really is like that… only they are helping put the entire species to death (which is – as we know – long overdue)
“but also let us be honest, this vaxx is a dud as a population reducer and everyone in the department appears to be in rude health.”
Give it three years.
Things can get a lot ruder in three years.
Although post-modern academics with prion diseases—how will we be able to tell the difference?
They are continuing to push injections despite knowing that the injections have negative efficacy … that they are maiming and killing … and in the meantime most countries are pulling off all restrictions aimed at impeding the virus…
Now why would they do that…. (see Bossche warning..)
It won’t be 3 years… the global economy is on the verge of total collapse… 48 weeks to get jib board here in NZ… supply chains are f789ed… energy costs were unsustainable before Ukraine…
The question of how to model the mortality rate over time is of great interest. Obviously so long as you keep jabbing, as much of the population has done over the last 15 months, your probability of dying ramps up. But once you are done with the jabbing, the curve must be some sort of decaying exponential. Now for myocarditis it should be a reasonably quickly decaying curve, perhaps with a half life of one year, but for, say, cancer, or various fibrosis, it should be a slowly decaying curve with a half life of a few years.
The purpose of course is to get an idea of how many will truly die due to the vaccine, without waiting 10 years. The euromomo data duly show a ramp-up starting in early 2021, but it is really too small to make a difference. For you (Tim) to be right, mortality has to keep increasing long past the last jab. I do not see it…
About the only chance you have of cracking open the ‘Formidable Edifice That is The Closed Mind’ is when they have seen an article on MSM on a subject that they are deeply familiar with. The article will be shallow, wide of the mark, and often be slanted by the narrative needs of the sponsors/advertisers/owners of said
So by coaching through and examining the obvious holes in the presentation you can round out the discussion with the suggestion that in every case the news on other subjects will be found similary wanting.
But then, there are those herd instincts. Baaaaa…humbug
media.https://www.simplypsychology.org/asch-conformity.html
https://effectiviology.com/authority-bias-the-milgram-obedience-experiment/
Remember that most of those experiments were done in those colleges of advanced ‘programming’ where future ‘leaders are coached.
This Intellectual Yet Idiot is well to the fore where I work. I am an abject failure in many ways; my UniMis-educ. left me with far more questions than answers!
Encourage everyone to take more shots….
Pretend that you are also shooting up and tell everyone ‘Jeez I got another shot yesterday and you know – I feel great! I feel smarter, more handsome, stronger, more vigorous — can’t wait for the 5th one!’
Pretend to be a MOREON – it might be fun – they MOREONS might confide in you
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Panic buying spreads in Middle East as Russian invasion sparks fear over food and fuel
In countries that rely on Ukraine and Russia for products such as wheat and vegetable oil, prices are soaring and supplies are vanishing.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/16/middle-east-food-fuel-crisis/
This is exactly what we would expect. Also, more uprisings, as in the Arab Spring rebellion of 2012,
Unlike Ukraine there will be loads of video if we get another Arab spring
It will be an Arab autumn this time.
One thing that surprises me in all this is that prices for Gold and Silver have remained in very narrow channels during all economic turmoil last months. Oil prices spike, LME stop trading in Nickel and the monetary system is weaponized – still no effects whatsoever on Gld and Slv. Kind of strange.
Hmmm, that is strange in the real 🌎 world… but for the Masters of the Universe…anything is possible with the power of a double click on the mouse and some contracts and collusion…whatever
I agree with Gail… eventually all this digital wealth imaginary riches will vaporizer and be stranded…like Gail pointed out…how much is a beach condo in Miami without power and water service, ect ect ect..
The BAU show must go on Bro.
Large amounts of Ag and Au can only “traded” as spot price set via paper accounting on ETFs. If you really want to hold physical, you must pay the “real” price, I.e., the spot plus commission which has been going higher in the last year as the amount of actual physical metal available for delivery gets tight. Large quantities of physical PMs by institutional investors are not available and unobtainable. Hence the paper price is still “controlling”. The retail investors/hoarders/preppers in contrast can still buy physical but have to pay an enormous premium for actual delivery of physical metal. But those physical amounts are so minuscule in comparison to the ETFs that they can still be acquired under the radar but at increasingly higher premiums over spot.
Gradually, the price for physical delivery will expose the shrinking fractional ownership of the physical metal in the COMEX and LBMA and the paper market ETFs like SLVR and GLD. The physical gold is just not there. When retail bullion sellers APMEX, SD Bullion, or the large physical owners like Sprott’s PSLVR and PGLD can no longer source physical metal, the gig will be up.
It seems like the story about the lack of real physical gold and silver has been around for a long time. At some point, this physical lack will become apparent.
First time I heard that story I was riding on my dinosaur. Le Metropole Cafe and all that.
Less than 20bps left before YC inversion. 5s, 7s to 10s already inverted. 20s to 30s inverse spread widening to >10bps. YC tilts with every rate hike.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FODKg1sXIAYxSuN?format=png&name=large
YC = Yield curve
Banks pay depositors based on short term interest rates, but lend based on long term interest rates. They need the long term interest rates to exceed the short term interest rate, or lending becomes unprofitable. Banks then refuse to make new loans. It is the cutback in new loans that tends to bring the economy down.
The article says that the yield curve tilts with every rate hike. It is very close to being inverted, now, with only a 20 basis point difference between long and short interest rates. Another .25% increase in the interest rate would be too much. In fact, we are “skating on thin ice” with the tiny margin available now.
Ed Dowd posted on telegram that the Fed can’t move any higher or the f789er will blow…
I have no idea how this is holding together as it is – mortgage rates are up 1/3 in NZ and as we know most MOREONS leave no buffer – they take the biggest fattest loan that they can service (at a record low interest rate assuming that will never change) and now petrol is blasting off as is everything else…
Gotta be a lot of MOREONS eating potatoes mashed together with cat food
“Eskom Sees $1.4 Billion of Extra Diesel Costs on Coal Outages.
“South Africa’s indebted state-owned power utility expects running costs for its diesel-fed turbines, which are used to keep the lights on when coal-powered plants break down, to surge as it struggles to keep up with maintenance.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-16/eskom-sees-1-4-billion-of-extra-diesel-costs-on-coal-outages
“Amid costly diesel, [Nigeria’s] grid collapses 24hrs after Gencos’ warning.
“Barely 24 hours after generating companies warned of idle capacity and mounting debts, Nigeria’s electricity grid, yesterday, plunged for the umpteenth time, compounding the woes of many businesses and pushing them towards higher energy costs, going by the present cost of diesel.”
https://guardian.ng/news/amid-costly-diesel-grid-collapses-24hrs-after-gencos-warning/
Electricity will increasingly be something that is available only intermittently, at best. Nigeria is one of the countries leading the way.
Diesel is always a high-cost fuel. Now, with high oil prices, this is especially the case.
“[US] Trucking industry feels pain of rising diesel prices…
“The steep prices are trickling down through the economy. More than 70% of freight is transported via trucks, according to the American Trucking Associations. Now, fuel surcharges are increasingly affecting the prices of everything from groceries to building supplies.”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gas-diesel-prices-trucking-industry/
“Diesel has been burning an increasingly larger hole in the pocket of Britain’s drivers each time they reach for the pump…
“Strains are [also] beginning to show in Europe. Austria’s OMV has reportedly restricted fuel supplies in Hungary, while BP and Shell have restricted spot sales in Germany in recent weeks, according to Reuters.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/03/17/dash-diesel-britain-ditches-russian-energy/
“Britain is heading for a “de facto lockdown” caused by soaring fuel prices, ministers have been warned.
“Conservative former minister Robert Halfon said parents will soon no longer be able to afford to take their children to school while workers will struggle to get to work.”
https://www.cumnockchronicle.com/news/national/20000191.fuel-price-hikes-risk-sending-uk-de-facto-lockdown-tory-warns-ministers/
“Macron Says French State Must Take Control of Some Energy Firms…
““The state will need to take in hand several aspects of the energy sector,” Macron said on Thursday, as he laid out his manifesto just three weeks before the presidential election. “We will need to take ownership control of several industrial actors.””
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-17/macron-says-french-state-must-take-control-of-some-energy-firms
more Nationalization, as predicted recently by someone.
(admittedly an easy prediction to hit on.)
“parents will soon no longer be able to afford to take their children to school while workers will struggle to get to work.”
There was a time, many, many moons ago, when all students walked (or bused at most) to school, and felt embarrassed to be seen by their pals when exceptionally they’re drove there by parents.
Poor zoomers, the first generation of humans to grow up as only children and protected from reality by walls and pc screens, are the most spoiled and prosthetic generation ever.
But their disconnection from reality portrays pretty well their (and our) condition as late comers to the oil bonanza party.
When you think about it, public education is another one of those “disempowering professions”, with very sharply diminishing returns currently. So maybe it’s better they get homeschooled, de-schooled, or unschooled.
Russia exports quite a bit of oil as diesel fuel. As this diesel fuel is cut back, Europe is in worse and worse shape economically.
“Energy Spending To Hit Record 13% Of Global GDP In 2022.
“Rallying energy commodity prices are expected to drive up primary energy expenditures globally to a record 13 percent of world gross domestic product (GDP), comparable to the energy cost levels in the 1979-80 energy crisis, research consultancy for energy technologies Thunder Said Energy said in a report on Wednesday.”
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Energy-Spending-To-Hit-Record-13-Of-Global-GDP-In-2022.html
If energy spending is as high as 13% of Global GDP, then food expenditures will also have to rise as a percentage of Global GDP.
Some expenditures for optional goods and services will have to be cut back. This implies a huge recession is ahead.
“Oil market heads for ‘biggest supply crisis in decades’ with Russia’s exports set to fall, IEA says…
““The prospect of large-scale disruptions to Russian oil production is threatening to create a global oil supply shock,” the Paris-based firm said in its monthly oil report, adding that this could ultimately be the “biggest supply crisis in decades.””
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/16/oil-market-heads-for-biggest-supply-crisis-in-decades-with-russias-exports-set-to-fall-iea-says.html
Gail, you have an impressive skill. In three sentences you make clear what is the impact of 13% for energy.
huge recession = depression ?????
This is a step down that will never be recovered from globally. Locally maybe for a time.
I will raise you to “mother of all depressions”, in length, depth, and economic impact.
Let me try this:
“The depression to end all depressions”
the GOAT of all depressions.
This is TM discretionary/essential economics. Long essentials/short discretionary might be a good bet.
Dennis L.
This seems much worse than 08 when you had some reserves to combat recession. I do wonder if a depression might be part of the plan. Nothing gets the masses scared like a depression. “We have nothing to fear but fear itself” it’s scared people a lot more than the prospect of going to war.
Dr. Vladimir Zelenko talks with Dr. Pam Popper, who among other things, mounted a lawsuit against the Mayor of Boston, Michelle Wu, seeking compensation for violating civil rights over vaccine passports, which resulted in the Mayor quickly announcing the lifting of the city’s proof-of-vaccination requirement for indoor dining, gyms, and entertainment venues.
https://rumble.com/vxhhrt-r-and-b-weekly-seminar-r-and-b-medical-fellowship-episode-27-tuesday-march-.html?mref=6zof&mc=dgip3&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=LowellJosephGallin&ep=2
MSM announced the change as follows:
“Boston Mayor Michelle Wu just lifted the city’s proof-of-COVID-19 vaccine mandate for indoor businesses, effective immediately. The city’s February 18 announcement was based on public health data, citing a recent drop in COVID-19 cases and hospitalization rates and improved hospital capacity.”
My impression is that others in the area were lifting their mandates as well. There was a lot of impetus from elsewhere to start lifting mandates, too.
Pam reckons it was her lawsuit her did it by targeting the Mayor personally for a cool million in compensation, although of course Michelle would never admit that.
950k have missed their Booster deadlines in NZ — the passports/mandates will be cancelled soon.
US will go on importing Russian oil as long it will come throught the ‘Caspian Pipeline Consortium’ (CPC)
”U.S. oil refiner PBF Energy is due to receive at Delaware City about 1 million barrels of Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) Blend crude with a Russian origin certificate and loaded in Russia, according to a shipping document seen by Reuters and person familiar with the matter. […]
The U.S. ban on Russian imports does not prohibit trading in CPC crude, the U.S. Treasury said last week. In an advisory, it said the CPC can segregate Russian origin crude to market and load non-Russian oils separately. CPC Blend is composed primarily of oil from Kazakhstan that is often mixed with Russian crude and loaded at Russia’s Novorossiisk port on the Black Sea.”….
For those who are familiar with Italian food issue this argument is very similar to what happen with Italian olive oil which can be blend with north african or eastern Europe one, but still remaining under Italian certification for the label to the market.
https://gcaptain.com/russian-oil-cargoes-rush-to-beat-united-states-ban/?subscriber=true&goal=0_f50174ef03-e1a80c88ce-169616737&mc_cid=e1a80c88ce&mc_eid=647eb6290c
When Russian oil is mixed with oil of nearby countries, then the blend contains some Russian oil. In this case, the blend can be purchased.
Gail. Your blog and your comment section make it easier to fulfil “If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs and blaming it on you,”
Population Growth quibble. Chris Hamilton over at econimica.blogspot.com has been distracted with C19 musings and has not returned to his original main theme started in 2012. He long complained that the UN population estimate models were aiming at higher growth than reality. And he observed that folks reported the high end estimates from the UN models. He went delving into nationally reported demographics and found other ways to explore the numbers.
The week before C19 came on to radar, he was predicting a permanent structural downward deflection in global births (ex-Africa). Quotes.
– “This shrinking populace plus ongoing negative fertility rates means births will begin declining at an accelerating pace.”
– “I suspect “something” will likely intercede before too long that radically changes the picture.”
https://econimica.blogspot.com/2020/01/global-births-population-of-potenial.html
His spelunking sharpens all hypotheses discussed here. Can anyone afford to pay an oil worker in the future? Are today’s resource wars measured in resources or the remaining labour pool to extract them? Is WEF trying to make sure regional demographics decay in a stable way? Is global per-capita debt measured by the structurally-imploding working-age demographic the root runaway financial signal?
OR is CEP timed to thrust an already falling knife?
Demographic collapse hidden with faulty models? The new growth industry in my area is converting grade schools into senior centers and condos.
“OR is CEP timed to thrust an already falling knife?“
Interesting and I would not put it past the dirtbags running the global sh*tshow. They have probably come to realize that a) they borrowed so much from the future that it would never be repaid and thus a financial, monetary collapse is inevitable. And b) when such a global collapse occurred, billions would probably not make it with the survivors wielding torches and pitchforks looking for TPTB. Then there is c) that it hit them over the head that there is such a thing as a Finite Planet.
Apart from “fear of COVID,” it seems like there had previously been a trend toward many people working beyond normal retirement age. Fear of COVID has pushed that trend back, keeping the labor pool smaller.
Thank you for this consideration.
Actually I can confirm that many clients I follow had a rapid turnover of people in key positions with external contacts.
Many people took the opportunity to retire at the first possible occasion, to avoid vaccination or the danger of contagion with internal or external persons.
Better to stay safe at home or go fishing…
Back online:
http://www.megacancer.wordpress.com
This is a surprisingly good read. An initial skim of the intro seemed like incoherent rambling, but it’s actually well written and thoughtful.
Thanks.
The author mentions the book “Into the Cool.” This is a book I would also recommend.
His writing tends to include a lot of very long paragraphs. (This is generally not the format used for internet writing. It is the academic paper style, however.) He could use an editor.
I encouraged him to write a book, but iirc he said more or less that he couldn’t be bothered.
You can find earlier writings via the Internet Archive.
https://web.archive.org/web/20210917173819/http://megacancer.com/
I find his calm determinism soothing.
Nice!!
“Why I believe Richard M Fleming is a charlatan
By Cheshire” ?
https://forbetterscience.com/2021/09/27/cheshire-vs-dr-who/
thanks for that one. It led to this significant article. I’m reassessing how this game is being played (after going completely down the Ivermectin rabbit-hole).
https://forbetterscience.com/2021/10/18/ivermectin-now-against-covid-19-because/
FYI – a couple of weeks ago I thought I had covid – bit of a sore throat – negative test … however last week the two kids tested + and were sick with flu like symptoms for 2 days or so … then M Fast got it and she was sick for 3 days or so …. so yesterday morning I awoke with flu like symptoms…and was +
I have limited Ivermectin so am saving that for Devil Covid….but I have a jar full of hydroxychloroquine .. I popped one at noon and by dinner I was feeling dramatically improved… took a second one last night … woke up this morning feeling excellent – slight residual cough… popped another one this morning and I am now pretty much completely recovered… I did a few hours of yard work… I am meant to take a 7 day course which I will – but the speed at which this smashed covid is incredible. It was literally beaten down before it even got started.
Hydroxy is an anti viral medication … seems it likes to kick the shit out of viruses…. so is Ivermectin…
Anyone who dismisses these two drugs deserves to suffer and hopefully die — cuz doing so qualfies one as a MOREON.
Glad you are feeling well.
This was a hit job by a man who knows how to hit hard.
If we look at the caliber of some of the other recent material this man has been typing, we will get a good idea of where he’s coming from.
https://forbetterscience.com/author/leonidschneider/
for instance, he’s got one on the current Russian “genocide” in Ukraine.
I think Dr. Fleming comes out of this looking pretty good. Methinks the gentleman doth protest too much in his critique, laying the slime on a couple of inches too thick.
Incidentally, Fleming has criticized Ivermectin, claiming it is ineffective in trials “his people” did. And he has also warned against irrigating the nose with providone iodine as it is poisonous. He’s strongly critical of people who deny the existence of viruses, he warns Remdesivir is a killer drug, he is very down on the Covid shots, but he thinks those crystals forming in the gunk that some are saying are graphine oxide or self-assembling mictochips are actually nothing more than crystals of common salt in and he wants to see the perps, beginning with Fauci, in jail.
Here’s Dr. Fleming giving a recent lecture. You can see why the perps and their shills are afraid of the guy and want to neutralize him. He makes too much sense and he has too much righteous indignation on his side.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/xPebfuF6Sk4R/
“This was a hit job …”
That was my impression too.
“For Better science” – I don’t think so.
Good points!
Dr Fleming was one of the most strident critics of the scamdemic from the word go.
He also released a book at some point in the past 18 months…
“Is COVID-19 a Bioweapon?”
Knew it was obvious fake news hit job when he called Inforwars Fascist.
This is how the those at the top, including the Media, love to lie to its own people to work them into a frenzy for war. It’s pretty disgusting if you ask me.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/nato-calls-up-hundreds-of-thousands-of-troops-ready-to-begin-wwiii/
Somehow, we have lived with Israel mistreating Palestine for many years, without comparable indignation.
And with poor people with brown or yellow skins in – for us – distant and somehow invisible places dying in the production or recycling of our i-phones and other junk foisted on them.
Yes, there certainly isn’t any public interest or appetite when it comes to sovereignty for Syria, or Libya, just to name two recent and shameful western “interventions”
For a change, today’s UK newspapers are not 100% covered in anti-Russian propaganda, although it is still there in most of them – ‘Russians bomb Ukrainian theatre’.
Newspaper headlines: Nazanin free and Russia ‘hits theatre holding 1,200’
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-60774400
The Telegraph (UK’s most popular broadsheet) does a hit job on Russell Brand, who was accused of being a Nazi by one of the newspapers a couple of weeks ago for discussing the Russian/Ukraine fiasco on his YouTube channel, without toeing the usual anti-Russia, pro-Ukraine propaganda line. I watch Russell on a regular basis and he goes out of his way to be as neutral as possible. How neutral? He has covered Covid / vaxxes / lockdowns etc extensively for the last two years and never got kicked off of YT. Why the hit job now? Because as of yesterday he had 5.25 M (worldwide) followers, increasing by 100,000 every few days, and his main theme these days is discussing the Russia/Ukraine conflict, giving both sides of the story. This will not do. The Telegraph daily sales were averaging a daily circulation of 310,586 (2019) and falling. Russell Brand on YT – 5.26 million and growing.
Telegraph headline: The Weird World of Russell Brand. Charlotte Lytton on the comic who became the Mad Hatter of conspiracy theories.
Russell will almost certainly discuss this in his next video.
“Not getting kicked off YT” ≠ neutral. He’s a socialist/globalist who pals around with Rothschilds and that lot.
Here he calls for “global governance” to protect us from “external threats”
(!?!?! aliens !??!)
https://brandnewtube.com/watch/russel-brand-calls-for-global-governance_D9csVAM7rZUIVeA.html
Pied Piper, that one is.
I have an important finding in my reality….
Coming back to the rant that I had about MSM and people who cannot think
Having talked to family members, acquaintances, associates and friends, I come to realize that it is not they want to use. They cannot use the brain. It is off limits to them. What is not mentioned in MSM is not true. It is a rule. It is a programming rule perhaps in this simulation.
I know people who knew a friend of his collapsed and died a few days after taking the booster. He went to take the booster some time later because MSM asks people to take boosters and it is safe. You can say it is a trance but to me as a programmer, it seems like it is a rule.
It is not a surprise that people like Steve Kirsch, Alex Berenson, Euggypius and many others failed to educate people. They cannot because the people they are trying to educate are “not educatable”. There is a rule in their brain. No matter how much scientific studies it is shown to them, how many people dropped dead on the street, as long as MSM does not say, it did not happen. It is like MSM is the beacon for them to follow.
Those who followed the beacon are those who are more educated. Perhaps that is why in my country, we have many cases highly educated people falling prey to scams that one can easily see.
I am sure you have seen that too in your country. No?
mathias desmet wrote in an essay that no matter what fact or logic you present to a person — it is impossible to change their minds.
see norm mike … 2 years of bashing their heads against the wall… they can’t wait for the next booster
and notice that they never respond to ramming irrefutable facts in their faces — they can’t – they are zombies — they cannot even see what we show them.
They don’t subject what the MSM and authorities tell them to rational analysis in the first place: therefore, presenting reasoned arguments – supported by evidence to the contrary – will be futile.
The deliberate ‘fear-programming’ makes the situation even worse.
I have for a long time thought there were loads of MOREONS on the planet.. but the great thing about the CovCON and now Ukraine… is that we know with great certainty that almost all people are MOREONS….
It takes a bit of time for that to sink in …to realize that the odds of encountering a person in real life who is not a MOREON is about the same as meeting someone who’s won a $50M dollar lottery… actually probably less.
You’d think that someone like Mark ‘is peak oil a thing?’ Crispin Miller would not be a MOREON … but look at him… the only thing he’s got going for him is he is not a Hyper MOREON….
It is just too unreal. I am now pushing aside all common sense and logic when I try to describe what is happening around me. It is beyond what I can comprehend. Perhaps out of this world.
It’s just that you had too high an opinion of your fellow human beings.
You should take to heart some wise word’s of George Carlin’s:
“Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”
I’ve given up talking to people about anything political. About a third of my business associates have said they want Putin to be assassinated. This sentiment came up for the first time last week. These are the same people who insisted on double masking and triple-jabbing last year and who screamed that Trump wasn’t their president for years before that. Lord knows what is going to make them foam at the mouth next week.
I would disassociate from them, but I want to keep in business for as long as possible, so I try to let their madness and passion wash over me without reacting to it.
Make sure not to tell them to take Hydroxychloroquine or Ivermectin if they get Covid… let them suffer…and hopefully die (and they won’t anyway)…
The MSM isn’t a single entity, no matter how much you’d like that to be true. Maybe for some, “What is not mentioned in MSM is not true”, provided it is the MSM organ that they read (other organs may disagree), but for others (often seen here), what the MSM says must be the opposite of reality. Both are beliefs.
Mike, there is no content in your comment. Like a word salad, in what an AI in a Turing test would do.
The spike protein has been demonstrated to spread throughout the body including crossing the blood > brain barrier… mike and norm have a form of mad cow disease… and it’s progressive
I realy do believe Mike is a software bot.
Could be worse — he could be norm… can’t even go to the pub without the Fat Slags abusin ‘im.
Yet another belief.
I know mike is a … starts with M….
Perhaps you just can’t see reality, CTG.
The MSM is a single entity, depending on the perspective from which one views it. In the same way a nation, a flock of ducks, a slime mold, or Gaia, or a human being is a single entity, or not, as the case may be, from a certain point of view, if you get my drift, innit?
Of course it isn’t. There are many channels lumped into “the MSM”. Many different newspapers, magazines, web sites, broadcast news and current affairs, and so on. Someone coined a name for these, Mainstream Media, but the members of that group can be very different to each other. But many here don’t even countenance that possibility even though many here also follow the MSM as they will always quote or link to MSM articles that seem to support their point of view, but ridicule everything else.
Some of what is in there is fairly trustworthy, some is pure garbage. As with everything, there are nuances. The disappointing thing with some here is that quoting a story from the MSM that they don’t like just brings insults even if the article points to some research that the reader can go straight to without relying on the MSM article.
Substack seems to be the new MSM for many here.
That’s just, like, your opinion, man!
From your perspective. There’s no “Of course” about it. One can’t speak categorically or in absolute terms about this sort of question, no matter how blinding obvious it may seem to you from your particular vantage point. At the very least, you have to become like Mirror on the Wall, and flesh out the reasons why you hold the truths that you hold to be self evident as truths rather than just, like, your opinion, man!
You’ve got to define your terms and explore the foundations of the tower knowledge you are sitting atop of to ensure that they are stable and solid. You’ve got to tell us about all the giants whose shoulders you are standing on that allow you to see so far. Otherwise, it’s just, like, your opinion, man!
Substack seems to be the new MSM for many here.
Another hall of shame quote from mike hahahaha… you can’t help youself can you
“Substack seems to be the new MSM for many here.”
Substack is merely a convenient platform that anybody can use to publish and share their own articles, essays, opinions or cat photos with anybody who chooses to read or look at them.
There is no collective Substack entity. It’s just anyone who wants to post on Substack.
Contrast this with the MSM, which is a collective entity in that anybody who wants to use it to publish and share their own articles, essays, opinions or cat photos needs to have the permission of the medium’s owners and gate-keepers, such as the editorial staff, who will impose many kinds of subtle and less subtle restrictions on who can publish and what they can publish.
If you attempt to write for the MSM in any country, you will quickly learn that is a collective entity in the sense that its controllers impose certain ill-defined and yet well-understood limits on the taste, style and content of articles for publication. I learned this first-hand during my halcyon days back in the last century, long before the days of fake news and long before I became the jaded, cynical grouch I am today.
I just talked to a friend. The topic turned to vaccines. I said that since he has to take up the vaccine due to work, I prefer not to talk about it. He knew there were side effects and people are getting cancer. It does not seem to bother him and he said that he just have to take the medication prepared by the pharma on cancer and other side effects. WTF
Ya just a bit of chemo and radiation…. rather have cancer than covid. hahahahahaahahahaha WTF indeed
The vast majority of people think this way. You can’t change their minds. You can alienate a lot of friends and relatives by trying to get them to see a different viewpoint.
All you can do is wait for them to be vax injured, die or get VAIDS… only then will you know true peace.
Even Steve Kirsch, Alex Berenson, Euggypius, etc, think this way.
‘While the Milgram experiment represents an extreme example of how the authority bias can affect people, this phenomenon plays a role in a wide range of situations in our everyday life. Furthermore, research suggests that people tend to underestimate the influence that this phenomenon has on them, which makes it even more important to understand.’
I came across an exchange that I think carries some validity.
Naturally, it is not politically correct.
====
COMMENT: Psychologists will be studying for years how the
American Propaganda Engines sublimated self-righteous
Covid terror into Ukrainian warfighting outrage.
The same people who were screaming in the streets
about how the air was poison and demanding you muzzle
yourself to keep them safe are now lining up on social
media to run headfirst into Russian shrapnel. It took all of
two weeks for that change to occur, and it was an
alchemical transmutation of that terrible, unthinking,
unquestioning zealotry from one radical from into
another.
It’s WILD to see people that easily manipulated.
=====
REPLY: People who can’t defend themselves physically
(women and low T men) parse information through a
consensus filter as a safety mechanism.
They literally do not ask “is this true”, they ask “will others
be OK with me thinking this is true”. This makes them very
malleable to brute force manufactured consensus; if
every screen they look at says the same thing they
will adopt that position because their brain
interprets it as everyone in the tribe believing it.
Only high T alpha males and aneurotypical people
(hey autists!) are actually free to parse new
information with an objective “is this true?” filter.
This is why a Republic of high status males is best
for decision making. Democratic, but a democracy
only for those who are free to think.
First they rushed to get injected with the death shots… then they rushed to Ukraine to be featured as an extra in the Potemkin War — only that there are some live rounds flying around to add some moodiness.
Surprise norm isn’t in ukraine — when you’ve past 80 it’s time to take unlimited risks… live a little … every day is pretty shit anyways — right dunc?
If it were me I’d go to yemen.. for the real action… but you would wanna do it before you are too old and wrecked to enjoy the scenery
Telegraph group — asking for symptoms of people who have had covid in nz – vaxxed or unvaxxed…
The vaxxed are reporting much more severe symptoms.. the uvaxxed are reporting mild flu/cold symptoms
How do people know they have had Covid?
You get free boxes of self RAT tests from the chemist.
The Creator is looking down at the playing board known as Earth. He sees the characters moving around. Some have brains but many not. He likes it when the brainies have a serious problem on why there are brainless people.
The Creator smiles as he injects some fun into getting Russian to attack Ukraine. It does not matter to the Creator who is right and who is wrong. Just have fund watching the brainies speculating what is happening and the brainless changing their tune and narrative from COVID to Ukraine.
Perhaps it is time for the Creator to end this and move along to the next one.
Have you ever considered yourself from the vantage point of the ‘creator’. Would you rather play with the easily manipulated sheeple or individuated people dishing it back?
Ask yourself; why are you at OFW?
I guess you’re not here to collect brownie points from the ‘regulars’ frequenting the comment section, but rather gain some insight. No?
People in general want to maintain their egotistical fantasies. It is what socialization does as it brings out certain rules and conditions for engaging in a civilization that in itself is based on a fantasy of perpetual growth.
You can’t “reason” with a fantasy that is based on exaggerating the genetic expressions of a primate species on an individual and civilization level. It is futile. You’re removing their raison d’etre, fantasies, hopes and copes.
To put it bluntly; I suppose you’ve gotta sport an IQ of 130+ and be well versed in logical thinking to get reasonably individuated as it is.
It is an evolutionary process to remove unwanted cretins from the gene pool. It has been ongoing since the dawn of “mankind” whenever that was and of origins which could be discussed and speculated upon.
A simulation could be run to check the results and answer the questions
1. What if we dumb down people a lot ?
2 What will happen to the society if we push wokeism to the extreme?
3. What if we provoke a country that is more than sane( Russia?) than the rest of the silly world?
4. What will happen to humanity if we have a non-lethal virus spreading around?
5. What happens i Trump won? (it is not in this simulation though)
So, the Creator created some people who are aware and put them into this simulation so that they can see first hand what is happening and record them down in blogs like this. The Creator will know what i happening in the simulation.
Can anyone confirm/deny that there might be a Creator walking among humans?
It could unknowingly be you. Take the vantage point of being a rather sophisticated “mindful/sensor/actuator” walking the earth.
Assume the “alien” hypothesis, for sure the tech must be extremely sophisticated to be able to detect what is a good “avatar” for “downloading” firmware upgrades as “it”/“you” individuate.
Yes; how do you do when debugging and upgrade firmware on your IoT devices? You monitor them remotely and push OTA upgrades. And as you know, eventually all electronic and biological gizmos become obsolete and age.
Do you view your own creations/machinations with fondness or contempt? I’d bet you’ve sometimes got irritated over a particularly elusive bug and then you discover it was a feature – considered from another perspective.
I guess it is what it is if it is true.
Rather awesome.
Stop being fearful of that which could be mind bogging sophisticated and consider hypotheses without judgement from your own egotistic fantasies. Life is rather sublime and subtle in its complexity after all.
🪵🪓💧
Over the years, I know I am the “recorder of events ” when you play a game, there is “camera option” i an the recorder of events. I know signs are always pointing ro that.
Do you “see” a problem with that?
For sure it must be a bit unnerving at times, realistically, would trade it away for the herd ignorance?
Anyway; I’m just a coder/engineer “grunt” powering away with my logos at full tilt.
However; I’d like some of your surreal/simulation action. Where do I sign up?
🤔
‘Russia Going All Out’: Maj Gen GD Bakshi’s Analyses As Russia-Ukraine War Escalates
From March 14, but very informative. I like this Major General.
Excellent – humane – analysis from the Indian general, including economic observations.
Splendid mustache too!
Absolutely splendid mustachios, truly pukka.
One suspects he was quite the Cock O’the Walk in his heyday, boots gleaming and spurs jingling.
Spot on talk on the real story regarding military operations and purpose.
Thank you…too bad this wasn’t shown here in the USA networks.
Of course not…we can’t have that, now can we…you can’t handle the Truth
Connecting Ukraine to EU electricity grid that was tested just at the time of invasion and implemented sooner than planned
Explainer: Europe and Ukraine’s plan to link power grids
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europe-ukraines-plan-link-power-grids-2022-03-01/
My guess is that the connection of the Ukrainian electric grid to the EU is a whole lot more important to this conflict than is recognized. The EU grid cannot support those currently depending upon it. Adding Ukraine will push it way over the top. It is an illusion that this is better for Ukraine than the Russian grid.
On the other hand, the functioning nuclear power of Ukraine would be of benefit to the EU grid.
How stooopid are the MOREONS?
They are so stooopid that it does not register with them that they are breeding exponentially — doing everything possible to ensure as few as possible die (including famine relief) — and they think this can go on and on and on …
They are so stooopid that they cannot realize or accept that the game is over… they can see what is happening but it does not register with them… we are deep into resource depletion and extermination is under way.
These are the same fools who insisted ‘we need to do something’ — they lobbied to end plastic straws and put up posters of Greta … and claimed this was progress hahahahaaha
Who is breeding exponentially?
The Brit fertility rate is about 1.5, and there is not a single European population with a replacement level rate, let alone exponential.
In historical terms, dissipative structures grow and shrink, and the human population with them. It has been going on for hundreds of thousands of years.
So what?
Can you help me find the shrinking parts — is my eyesight failing???
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/51/World_population_growth%2C_1700-2100%2C_2019_revision.png
In places where the living is hard, UK, the people do not reproduce.
on the other hand eddy
some of us function outside your sphere of comprehension and treat all women with courtesy, even in writing.
had your intellect allowed you to try it
you would be amazed at the results.
https://youtu.be/hHfKDiMxoUs
The thing is …
norm would try to be courteous to a Fat Slag … but a Fat Slag is an obnoxious foul-mouthed pig … that will ‘go out back’ of the pub with almost any lad …. and when confronted by a polite old geezer like norm the slags would taunt, bully and mock him … look at this old geezer … looks like all e’s ad is a blow up doll… eh y’ol geezer fook off ome … and stop yer pervin of us ya derty geriatric … go the fook ome and change yer diapers ya wanka…
Mirror do you have the rate for white, brown, black, yellow in UK? I would bet the white rate is about 1.1 like Italy and Spain.
Dr. Mobeen on the latest Stanford study showing spike protein levels in the blood of the vaccinated is equal to, or thousands of times more, than someone infected w/ the virus
Full lecture: https://youtu.be/-Y7dTMzn9B8
Study: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0092867422000769
only about 8.5 more years to complete the long term studies of the health damages caused by these toxic vaccines.
(my, how time flies! hahahahahohohohahahaha.)
perhaps most importantly, the VAIDS.
Thank you
They are NPCs……
It is the opposite way around.
They are indeed playable by, say, MSM and politicos. Which makes them predictable in the extreme.
Never be predictable.
You’re the non playable character, since whatever I’ll write and tell you will be consciously processed. That way it is possible to perform ‘system identification’ monitoring your outputs and observe if I can predict your thoughts and next move.
If you’ve got a tendency to form novel patterns of thought, reason about them, based on whatever that is you perceive and filter through your senses and mind, I’d conclude that you’re in “tune” with the universe.
If something that is intended to be confusing confuses, you’ve gotta stop looking for a rational explanation – projecting your own Logos into it. Find comfort in knowing that which is of use to you and ignore the absurdities.
Ultimate knowledge can’t be comprehended by a limited being such as a human.
Ultimate knowledge no but limited knowledge like little energy little food, few people is easy to know.
https://t.me/VigilantFox/3384 Gupta should be hung
Oh how sad https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/auckland-fathers-shock-death-four-days-after-testing-positive
Looks healthy — except that he f789ed his immune system with the injections … so he died..
hahahahahaha… MOREON Gone
OMG cases deaths where is the lockdown? Don’t you have a government!
Haha, I sincerely hope this is a joke.
“Referee Whistles May Be Cause Of Sudden Increase In Heart Problems: Experts“
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-02-24/insurers-vs-pharma
Someone recently did a photo montage of newspaper headlines on causes of heart problems – they were mostly / all absurd. Cannot find it but I seem to remember referee whistles was one of them. The MSM are in cahoots in an attempt to make the general public believe that the sudden increase in heart issues is natural, and the general public will believe it because the BBC says so.
This is very strong indirect evidence – as if we needed it – that the authorities are full aware of how much harm the vaxxes are causing: why else initiate this damage-limitation exercise in the MSM?
According to the MSM, anything and everything can cause a rise in strokes, myocarditis and heart attacks, along with our new friends ‘short illness’ and ‘died unexpectedly in their sleep’ and ‘pandemi-stress’, except for…..the novel ‘vaccines’!
The MSM has been engaged to cover up murder. There is no other word to use.
If the deaths and injuries were inadvertent, they could have used Omicron as an excuse to stop injecting and back-track, but instead they are pressing ahead.
The intention is clearly to cause even more cumulative harm.
https://odysee.com/@spacebusters:c9/Heart-Attacks-Strokes-Media:c
Well worth watching.
Heart attacks cuased by fluffing the Duvet, referees whistle, power bills.. and much much more
duvet diving can be incredibly dangerous
This demonstrates just how stoooopid the MOREONS are…. the PR Team would not make this stuff up if they didn’t think the MOREONS would believe it
Funny how they have their cameras ready when a fake photo shoot is being set up
https://t.me/FreedomCanadaConvoyChat/1917
Oh right … cuz there’s next to nothing in terms of real war happening in Ukraine
hahahahahahahaha
Gail, this Nietzsche note that I came across sounds like the sort of thing that you sometimes say. Humans are not necessarily aware of the ‘grand plan’, let alone in control of it, or aware of how events in the world function according to their own tendencies and outcomes.
> To attain a height and bird’s eye view, so one grasps how everything actually happens as it ought to happen; how every kind of “imperfection” and the suffering to which it gives rise are part of the highest desirability. – TWTP 1004
Wars and victories, conquests and defeats, and even civilisational collapse (or wide-scale nuclear contamination) are all transitional events toward outcomes of their own. The big picture is not necessarily obvious.
I came across a similar view in Aquinas, that Providence is not always obvious, and that it has its own way of finding its outcomes. Events that humans might consider to be desirable or unfortunate fit within an overall picture, which is what really matters – ultimately the glory of the will of God.
I have mentioned before that Nietzsche is close to medieval theology, in some important respects, even if he sometimes likes to present himself as the great rupture with, and antagonist of, all that.
This is the next note, which suggests a similar reading. Arguably his ‘affirmation of all things’ and the devotional ‘reconciliation with the will of God’ are not entirely dissimilar if viewed in the context of the ‘grand plan’.
> At the same time I grasped that my instinct went into the opposite direction from Schopenhauer’s: toward a justification of life, even at its most terrible, ambiguous, and mendacious; for this I had the formula “Dionysian.”
Against the theory that an “in-itself of things” must necessarily be good, blessed, true, and one, Schopenhauer’s interpretation of the “in-itself” as will was an essential step; but he did not understand how to deify this will: he remained entangled in the moral-Christian ideal. Schopenhauer was still so much subject to the dominion of Christian values that, as soon as the thing-in itself was no longer “God” for him, he had to see it as bad, stupid, and absolutely reprehensible. He failed to grasp that there can be an infinite variety of ways of being different, even of being god.” – TWTP 1005
For the scholastics, the ‘forbidden’ things happen anyway, or they tend to get justified by the context (eg. ‘just war’), while for Nietzsche they are simply to be embraced without ‘moralistic’ scruple.
An importance difference clearly lies in the ‘moral’ licence that he would grant in order to facilitate the ‘grand plan’, and he is quite about open about that. As Luther might have said, ‘sin boldly’ because it is going to happen anyway lol.
> Moral values have hitherto been the highest values: would anybody call this in question?- If we remove these values from this position, we alter all values: the principle of their order of rank hitherto is thus overthrown. – TWTP 1006
The medieval view that Sin is a ‘blessed error,’ because it necessitated redemption by the crucifixion and resurrection of Christ.
That no one can see the whole picture is often a theme in Middle Eastern stories about Khidr, the ‘Hidden Guide’, in which he breaks ethical codes for ultimately beneficial reasons.
I doubt a supreme being could claim perfect knowledge of all variations of causes and effects.
I don’t think “life” can be “solved” in a definitive sense. It has to be “evolved” i.e. considered as a process of discovery within an infinite combinatorial space.
All philosophy is flawed since it is inevitable for humans to project their egotistical fantasies into them. Both Nietzsche and Schopenhauer got their hopes and copes. So do you and I Xab.
However; I suppose we can change our hypotheses once evidence (of being wrong) becomes available. In the mean time:
🪵🪓💧
Good points, X, thanks.
I had not heard of Khidr, and he is an interesting figure.
Christian ‘cosmic history’ (or whatever) is very much framed, as you say, on a very grand scale, around how the unfortunate leads to the fortunate, and that it was always intended to develop in that way. So, the Fall leads ultimately to the Redemption, and eventually to the Restoration of all things (or in heaven and hell.)
Aquinas explains the entire ‘Providence’ of ‘cosmic history’, in Neo-Platonic terms, with the ongoing ‘creation’ as a ‘reflection’ of the incomprehensible Substance of God. The perfection of God cannot be expressed simply in the creature, so it is approximated to by the varied ‘degrees’ of being (and of well being) had by creatures, so as better, as a whole, to reflect that perfection. The entire course of the cosmos is ‘predestined’, and it has no ‘reason’ beyond the will of God and what is ‘fitting’ in his regard. The Fall, Redemption, heaven and hell are predestined, from before the creation, to the glory of God, and for the manifestation of his ‘goodness’ (variously, mercy and judgement).
Khidr seems to sort of be about how the providence of ‘sin’ ‘works out’ on a narrower scale of the everyday for the good of beings, particularly humans. Likely Islam also has the broad perspective. I have never really studied it, but I would guess that it is probably pretty similar beyond the differences.
So, if we put the two together, God and Khidr, then we have something similar to Nietzsche, that ‘sin’ can facilitate to the good of beings, even on a grand historic scale, and not just on a short-term personal level. Some might say that it is ‘playing God’ with history, but I suppose that humans are always doing that, if only within a narrower perspective of vision. The ‘moral of the story’ may be that sometimes we need to transgress daily rules in order to facilitate the good.
Humans come up with all of these theories. Everything needs to fit in with the popular narratives of the day.
As we understand an increasing amount about how dissipative systems work, perhaps we need to be coming up with new narratives. For example, there seems to be quite a bit of evidence of life after death. At least, there are a lot of people who have “died” and come back, and report that they had very positive experiences. We also know that the universe is constantly expanding in a way that seems to imply a constant source of energy, and thus of creation. Thus, it does look as if there is some unexplained Power behind everything that happens.
Perhaps we need to be thinking about at least the possibility of future continuation of our existence, even if our lives are cut short on this earth by resource shortages. Perhaps there can be a happily ever after story, but not on this Earth. Perhaps, it may not be even be in this Universe. We can never have certainty, but we can’t have certainty about anything.
May be we should get back to the questions: what is the meaning of life and what is the purpose of our life on this earth?
There are some certainties in life: being born, getting old, getting sick and die.
Right! We have become accustomed to having very long life expectancies, but this is not really sustainable.
There is no objective meaning to life. Life just is. Each organism does its thing, eventually dying and being recycled. Of course, subjectively, each of us can assign some meaning, if we feel the need.
Let er Rip = this and MORE hahahaha
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10613353/amp/Covid-Omicron-BA-2-variant-sweeping-Australia-SIX-times-contagious-Wuhan-virus.html
“Even the triple-vaccinated will be at heightened risk of catching the new strain”
BA2 just loves humans who have VAIDS.
As if the triple vaxxed were not getting infected on a massive scale with the current variant hahahahaha
It must be difficult being a MOREON — it’s all so confusing — the easy option is just to keep getting those boosters… cuz there’s no harm in that right mike?
So a “cold” is sweeping across Australia…..Is that news?
every disease is more of a problem for those who have VAIDS.
that group is probably all of the triple jabbed.
It’s the gift that keeps giving.
VAIDS: the gift that will last a (shortened) lifetime.
As long as high tech “backpack” weapons flow over the border from Poland the war will continue. This means Russia must actively occupy the country and it wont get its demilitarized and quasi autonomous western Ukraine. No demilitarization if backpack weapons flow easily and endlessly. Your always going to find a couple dozen people to man those weapons. Russia stays bogged down with the increasing pressure of the sanctions and increasingly at odds with Poland and the USA. And why operate those drones from the ukraine side of the line. Thats dangerous. Why not just operate from the poland side? Only takes one guy to make that decision with backpack drones. Does Russia let it slide? USA let constant fire from pakistan slide. All part of the game?
Is Russia prepared to lose or would they rather give the nukes a “boof”?
Qudaffi and Saddam both proposed a new currency to supplant the dollar 6 months prior to things going “boof” . IMO it is the sin that is unforgivable. Im not sure China is on board. Yes china is in Russias corner but if nukes fly they would rather be innocuous. IMO we havnt even seen the “empire strikes back” yet.
Are the dollar hedgmonists prepared to lose or would they rather give the nukes a “boof”?
This is awful “boofin” close to a world war for not being a world war. And there is no end in sight. Its going to go a long time with nerves on edge and possibilities for boof ups. Russia cant mop up with backpack weapons flowing. If they stop the flow article 5 gets invoked. If they dont its the slow hemorrhage of attrition and sanctions. Putin what do you say? Is it better to burn out or fade away? Putin has indicated its do or die. I dont think fade away is his wish. As i have expressed before I think Russia came into this accepting the possibility of a nuclear war but that possibility was considered remote. Now they are in a strangle hold. Perhaps they cave. No one knows. Hell 20% of the USA thinks risking nuclear war is ok. You think the war pigs dont agree?
Good points Banned. I have often thought this too. Putting aside I’m pulling for this team or I’m pulling for that team you have analyzed it correctly. The new technology of backpacks does make it a much more difficult scenario for the Russians. The only true solution would be the Carthaginian solution.
Russias situation doesnt look good. In Afghanistan Pakistan provided R&R to the Insurgents providing a safe haven. Poland seems destined for the same.
Having spent two decades defending against IEDs the USA military now gets to provide them leveraging off its knowledge. The Ukraine insurgents will not be cobbling 70s artillery shells and cell phones together. They will be provided with the highest tech IEDs that $ can buy from a military well acquainted with how to use materials to the best effect.
Its no wonder that Polands Offer to send the MIG 29s to Ramstein military base was considered “undermining NATO”. The status quo of allowing anything smaller than a refrigerator across the polish border seems to be set.
Nor can Russia just say whoopsie and pull back. I have no doubt if they were to leave western Ukraine it would remilitarize x10. In this regard they are even worse of than the USA and Afghanistan. Much worse off.
The solution giving Warsaw a black eye invokes article 5 and WWIII.
This puts Poland in a power broker position. Poland in effect decides the outcome.. It seems they have chosen a position that has rather dire outcome for the Ukrainian population and very possibly humanity IMO.
The other unknown is China. If Russia and China team up to break the wests financial system I dont see it lasting very long. But who will the massive manufacturing complex china has become sell their products too? Where China goes ultimately in this regard is unknown.
Once again I return to my original premise. Russia faces a eternal hemorrhage in Ukraine. The alternative is to play hardball and take on NATO WWIII. If China and Poland put Russias back up against the wall It goes nuclear IMO.
On the other hand if China comes in backing Russia they can batten the hatches and wait for the wests financial collapse. Then there is a significant possibility the West goes nuclear IMO.
No where do I see nation attitudes that look for legitimate solutions that benefit humanity. Russias position was not unreasonable. Yet I cant voice that without fear of violence upon my person. Otherwise reasonable people who know what it is to love and value life who fall right into gang mentality. Fear, force war. The embodiment of the worst of the human characteristics. I consider nuclear war not just possible but very probable now. The war pigs win. The children lose. Humanities legacy nothing more than use of force horror and war. We have potential to be something better but we do not express that in our actions. The lemmings run toward the horror with great enthusiasm. We do not express love care and stewardship of the planet in our actions. We reap what we sow.
This is the tragedy of such low-intensity, pseudo-insurgency, warfare: a few fanatical idiots, well-supplied supplied with arms, can create misery for millions.
Those who supply such arms are deeply culpable. The US should take this one on the nose and back down.
I’m fully at peace with a nuclear exchange, if it comes, as the Techno-Totalitarian future planned for us is too awful anyway.
The very first day of the operation in Ukraine I thought to myself that Russia will run the things in a way that the West(tm) derails itself.
They come forward, wait a day or two and then look what the other side is doing.
That is also true for the negotiating.
The Russians are willing to negotiate with Szelenski but he is busy talking other countries into the malstrom. Psaki said : Yes we are engaged in negotiations – with Szeleski.
Nobody is even interested in talking with the Russian side.
You can bet that weapons delivery is very closely monitored. The Russians have a robust space programme.
Today, all data can be recorded and stored away for retaliation even in 50 years or more. That is not the problem.
The West needs just more time to pile up more shit and the Russians are eager to wait for it because they can bet that they will continue to pile it up.
And, oh boy, the world does not only cosist of the West. A lot of people are continously rubbing their eyes watching this thing unfold. Movements are being dclared tectonic already and we are only in month one of this process.
I do not think that politicians in Slovakia or Bulgaria thinking about deilivery of anti-aircraft systems really believe in the shit of their own MSM. They just hope to make “a bet on the right side” that will pay off well.
The prices, the prices, they will need some more time to be discovered…
As far as I understand Russia has already calculated a lot of these prices but some “bills” are still in “adding to the list” mode and a line will be drawn below that one day. That of course must be a day before Russia as a country ceases to exist. I think Russia has already stated that “ceasing to exist” is in the calculation…
As I said before: “We are in an ongoing situation” something very few people can handle…
China and USA or Russia and USA?
It is very sad to bring up again the topic of Hegelian Dialectics,
Some entinties in tihs world have more “money” than the GDP of any existihg entity on this planet.
“Buy a coutriy” is not even a topic in the sense of “buy a continent”.
Everything “they” do is based on “their money laws” or “a price of a person/couty/continent”
If “we the people could get out of them monies” them would be dead in a minute.
Proposal here is to think about this topic…
forget money think energy not much useable energy is left so a rich person still uses the same energy as a poor person just because youre good at monopoly means nothing when u think of net available energy so redistribution of the money wont work the only solution may be 90 % depopulation of current world population maybe that will work some of us shall see.
A lot less people will solve a lot of problems.
I have not made them die. That was absolutely not my intention.
I understand that there will be a “selection event” but I am in no way engaged in it!
I hope that this does not apply to adonis and MM and Gail Tverberg and “The FAST” in his eniity and Herbie and so on.
We are in for the bottleneck and as long as I can post BS here with acceptance of Gail. this will do it for me.
BS tonight, baby!
my sentiments exactly BS obviously stands for large domesticated cloven-hoofed herbivore faeces
beef!
oops I mean
boof!
Our great Teletubby Future:
We will one day have a very small group of people ruling above an infinite army of Teletubbies.
Them Teletubbies will create an infinite amount of wealth for the rulers,
Actually the Teletubbies will in one moment of time also have to take over the French champagne producing areas converting them into Teletubby sparkling water producing hubs and the Private Jet enterprise converting it into a Teletubby cuddie bear operation as well as a sattelite shooting enterprise or any vaccination enterprise.
They will just turn their entire base of existance into a Teletubby enterprise.
So the Teletubbies will probably exactly do what you tell them to do in the Media.
This of course will lead to infinite progress because this is just human’s destiny.
Yes it is!
😀 👍 😀
https://t.me/robinmg/17284 Utopia – invent a pandemic – to create fear….
In 2018 US hospitals were bursting with flu patients — worse than Covid … they could have easily manufactured a pandemic … without having to fake anything
Not surprisingly, the author of Utopia is aware that disorderly collapse would imply extreme violence.
“Nothing that I can possibly put on screen will come anywhere close to the things we will face if we don’t sort out some of the things that [Utopia] is talking about.”
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/an-interview-with-dennis-kelly-about-utopia-the-show-too-bleak-for-tv/ZRRENODBS4PVECSNYP6UFUVGE4/
So it was so unpopular that the US picked it up and made their version of it…
The reason there was no S3 is because we are living S3 ….
If you’re suggesting there’s something fishy with Denis Kelly (ou maybe “Denis Kelly”) and all things pertaining to this wonderful Utopia series, i’d tend to agree. I saw it two times though.
What I suspect is that David Kelly was fed the outline of this script and filled in the blanks… but made it palatable for viewers… there is too much in that series that anticipates what is happening now — for him not to have been briefed…
hahahaahha why not https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/33743
https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/33742