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Media outlets tend to make it sound as if all our economic problems are temporary problems, related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In fact, world crude oil production has been falling behind needed levels since 2019. This problem, by itself, encourages the world economy to contract in unexpected ways, including in the form of economic lockdowns and aggression between countries. This crude oil shortfall seems likely to become greater in the years ahead, pushing the world economy toward conflict and the elimination of inefficient players.
To me, crude oil production is of particular importance because this form of oil is especially useful. With refining, it can operate tractors used to cultivate crops, and it can operate trucks to bring food to stores to sell. With refining, it can be used to make jet fuel. It can also be refined to make fuel for earth moving equipment used in road building. In recent years, it has become common to publish “all liquids” amounts, which include liquid fuels such as ethanol and natural gas liquids. These fuels have uses when energy density is not important, but they do not operate the heavy machinery needed to maintain today’s economy.
In this post, I provide an overview of the crude oil situation as I see it. In my analysis, I utilize crude oil production data by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) that has only recently become available for the full year of 2021. In some exhibits, I also make estimates for the first quarter of 2022 based on preliminary information for this period.
[1] World crude oil production grew marginally in 2021.
Crude oil production for the year 2021 was a disappointment for those hoping that production would rapidly bounce back to at least the 2019 level. World crude oil production increased by 1.4% in 2021, to 77.0 million barrels per day, after a decrease of -7.5% in 2020. If we look back, we can see that the highest year of crude oil production was in 2018, not 2019. Oil production in 2021 was still 5.9 million barrels per day below the 2018 level.
With respect to the overall increase in crude oil production of 1.4% in 2021, OPEC helped bring this average up with an increase of 3.0% in 2021. Russia also helped, with an increase of 2.5%. The United States helped pull the world crude increase down, with a decrease in production of -1.1% in 2021. In Section [5], more information will be provided with respect to crude production for these groupings.
[2] The growth in world crude oil production shows an amazingly steady relationship to the growth in world population since 1991. The major exception is the decrease in consumption that took place in 2020, with the lockdowns that changed consumption patterns.
Figure 2 indicates that, up through 2018, each person in the world consumed an average of around 4.0 barrels of crude oil. This equates to 168 US gallons or 636 liters of crude per year. Much of this crude is used by businesses and governments to produce the basic goods we expect from our economy, including food and roads.
A big downshift occurred in 2020 with the COVID lockdowns. Many people began working from home; international travel was scaled back. The reduction of these uses of oil helped bring down total world usage. Changes such as these explain the big dip in crude oil production (and consumption) in 2020, which continued into 2021.
Even in 2019, the world economy was starting to scale back. Beginning in early 2018, China banned the importation of many types of materials for recycling, and other countries soon followed suit. As a result, less oil was used for transporting materials across the ocean for recycling. (Subsidies for recycling were helping to pay for this oil.) Loss of recycling and other cutbacks (especially in China and India) led to fewer people in these countries being able to afford automobiles and smartphones. Lower production of these devices contributed to the lower use of crude oil.
On Figure 2, there is a slight year-to-year variation in crude oil per capita. The single highest year over the time period shown is 2005, with 2004 not far behind. This was about the time many people think that conventional oil production “peaked,” reducing the availability of inexpensive-to-produce oil.
[3] Crude oil prices dropped dramatically when economies were shut in, beginning in March 2020. Prices began spiking the summer and fall of 2021, as the world economy attempted to open up. This pattern suggests that the real problem is tight crude oil supply when the economy is not artificially constrained by COVID restrictions.
An analysis of price trends suggests that most of the recent spike in crude prices is due to the tightness of the crude oil supply, rather than the Ukraine conflict. The Brent oil price dropped to an average of $14.24 in the week ending April 24, 2020, not long after COVID restrictions were enacted. When the economy started to reopen, in the week ending July 2, 2021, the average price rose to $76.26. By the week ending January 28, 2022, the average price had risen to $90.22.
Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. The Brent spot price on February 23, 2022, was $99.29. Brent prices briefly spiked higher, with weekly average prices rising as high as $123.60, for the week ending March 25, 2022. The current Brent oil price is about $107. If we compare the current price to the price the day before the invasion began, the price is only $8 higher. Even compared to the January 28 weekly average of $90.22, the current price is $17 higher.
Saying that the Ukraine invasion is causing the current high price is mostly a convenient excuse, suggesting that the high prices will suddenly disappear if this conflict disappears. The sad truth is that depletion is causing the cost of extraction to rise. Governments of oil exporting countries also need high prices to enable high taxes on exported oil. We are increasingly experiencing a conflict between the prices that the customers can afford and the prices that those doing the extraction require. In my view, most oil exporting countries need a price in excess of $120 per barrel to meet all of their needs, including reinvestment and taxes. Consumers would prefer oil prices under $50 per barrel to keep the price of food and transportation low.
[4] Food prices tend to rise when oil prices are high because products made from crude oil are used in the production and transport of food.
History shows that bad things tend to happen when food prices are very high, including riots by unhappy citizens. This is a major reason that high oil prices tend to lead to conflict.
[5] Quarterly crude oil data suggests that few opportunities exist to raise crude oil production to the level needed for the world economy to operate at the level it operated at in 2018 or 2019.
Figure 5 shows quarterly world crude oil production broken down into four groupings: OPEC, US, Russia, and “All Other.”
Figure 5 shows four very different patterns of past growth in crude oil supply. The All Other grouping is generally trending a bit downward in terms of quantity supplied. If world per capita crude oil production is to stay at least level, the total production of the other three groupings (OPEC, US, and Russia) needs to be rising to offset this decline. In fact, it needs to rise enough that overall crude production growth keeps up with population growth.
Russian Crude Oil Production
The data underlying Figure 5 shows that up until the COVID restrictions, Russia’s crude oil production was increasing by 1.4% per year between early 2005 and early 2020. During the same period, world population was increasing by about 1.2%. Thus, Russia’s oil production has been part of what has helped keep world crude production about level, on a per capita basis. Also, Russia seems to have made up most of its temporary decrease in production related to COVID restrictions by the first quarter of 2022.
US Crude Oil Production
Growth in US crude oil production has been more of a “feast or famine” situation. This can be seen both in Figure 5 above and in Figure 6 below.
US crude oil production spurted up rapidly in the 2011 to 2014 period, when oil prices were high (Figure 3). When oil prices fell in late 2014, US crude production fell for about two years. US oil production began to rise again in late 2016, as oil prices rose again. By early 2019 (when oil prices were again lower), US crude oil growth began to slow down.
In early 2020, COVID lockdowns brought a 15% drop in crude oil production (considering quarterly production), most of which has not been made up. In fact, growth after the lockdowns has been slow, similar to the level of growth during the “growth slowdown” circled in Figure 6. We hear reports that the sweet spots in shale formations have largely been drilled. This leaves mostly high-cost areas left to drill. Also, investors would like better financial discipline. Ramping up greatly, and then cutting back, is no way to operate a successful company.
Thus, while growth in US crude oil production greatly supported world growth in crude oil production in the 2009 to 2018 period, it is impossible to see this pattern continuing. Getting crude oil production back up to the level of 12 million barrels a day where it was before the COVID restrictions would be extremely difficult. Further production growth, to support the growing needs of an expanding world population, is likely impossible.
OPEC Crude Oil Production
Figure 7 shows EIA crude oil production estimates for the total group of countries that are now members of OPEC. It also shows crude oil production excluding the two countries which have recently been subject to sanctions: Iran and Venezuela.
If Iran and Venezuela are removed, OPEC’s long-term production is surprisingly “flat.” The “peak” period of production is the fourth quarter of 2018. The fourth quarter of 2018 was the time when the OPEC countries were producing as much oil as they could, to get their production quotas as high as possible after the planned cutbacks that took effect at the beginning of 2019.
Strangely, EIA data indicates that production didn’t fall very much for this group of countries (OPEC excluding Iran and Venezuela), starting in early 2019. The 2019 cutback seems mostly to have affected the production of Iran and Venezuela. It was only later, in the first three quarters of 2020, when COVID restrictions were affecting worldwide production, that crude oil production for OPEC excluding Iran and Venezuela fell by 4 million barrels per day. Production for this group then began to rise, leaving a shortfall of about 900,000 barrels a day, relative to where it had been before the 2020 lockdowns.
It seems to me that, at most, production for the group of OPEC countries excluding Iran and Venezuela can be ramped up by 900,000 barrels a day, and even this is “iffy.” Iraq is reported to be having difficulty with its production; it needs more investment, or its production will fall. Nigeria is past peak, and it is also having difficulty with its production. The high reported crude oil reserves are meaningless; the question is, “How much can these countries produce when it is required?” It doesn’t look like production can be ramped up very much. Furthermore, we cannot count on continued long-term growth in production from these countries, such as would be needed to keep pace with rising world population.
Figure 8 suggests that, indeed, Iran might be able to raise its production by perhaps 1.0 million barrels a day when sanctions are lifted.
Venezuela looks like a country whose crude oil production was already declining before sanctions were imposed. The cost of production there was likely far higher than the world oil price. Also, Venezuela has oil debts to China that it needs to repay. At most, we might expect that Venezuela’s production could be raised by 300,000 barrels per day in the absence of sanctions.
Putting the three estimates of amounts that crude oil production can perhaps be raised together, we have:
- OPEC ex Iran and Venezuela: 900,000 bpd
- Iran: 1,000,000 bpd
- Venezuela: 300,000 bpd
- Total: 2.2 million bpd
The shortfall of crude oil production in 2021, relative to 2018 production, was 5.9 million bpd, as mentioned in Section [1]. The 2.2 million barrels per day possibly available from this analysis gets us nowhere near the 2018 level. Furthermore, we have nowhere to go to obtain the rising crude oil production required to support the rising population with enough crude oil to supply food and industrial goods at today’s consumption level.
[6] Eliminating, or even reducing, Russia’s crude oil production is certain to have an adverse impact on the world economy.
Figure 9 shows the step-down in crude oil production that occurred in early 2020 and indicates that the world’s oil supply is having difficulty getting back up to pre-COVID levels. If Russia’s crude oil production were to be eliminated, it would make for another step-down of comparable magnitude. Major segments of the economy would likely need to be eliminated.
[7] When there isn’t enough crude oil to go around, the naive belief is that oil prices will rise and either more oil will be found, or substitutes will take its place. In fact, the result may be conflict and elimination of segments of the economy.
Our self-organizing economy will tend to adapt in its own way to inadequate crude oil supplies. Eventually, the economy may collapse completely, but before that happens, changes are likely to happen to try to preserve the “better functioning” parts of the economy. In this way, perhaps parts of the world economy can continue to function for a while longer while getting rid of less productive parts of the economy.
The following is a partial list of ways the economy might adapt:
- Fighting may take place over the remaining crude oil supplies. This may be the underlying reason for the conflict between NATO and Russia, with respect to Ukraine.
- COVID lockdowns indirectly reduce demand for crude oil. A person might wonder whether the current COVID lockdowns in China are partly aimed at preventing oil and other commodity prices from rising to absurd levels.
- Some organizations may disappear from the world economy because of inadequate funding or lack of profitability.
- Additional supply lines are likely to break, allowing fewer types of goods and services to be made.
- The world economy may subdivide into multiple pieces, with each piece able to make a much more limited array of goods and services than is provided today. A shift toward the use of other currencies instead of the US dollar may be part of this shift.
- World population may shrink for multiple reasons, including poor nutrition and epidemics.
- The poor, the elderly and the disabled may be increasingly cut off from government programs, as total goods and services (including total food supplies) fall too low.
- Europe could be cut off from Russian fossil fuel exports, leaving relatively more for the rest of the world.
[8] Countries that are major importers of crude oil and crude oil products would seem to be at significant risk of reduced supply if there is not enough crude oil to go around.
Figure 10 shows a rough estimate of the ratio of crude oil produced to crude oil products consumed in 2019, the last full year before the pandemic. On an “All Liquids” basis, the US ratio of crude oil production to consumption would appear higher than shown on Figure 10 because of its unusually high share of natural gas liquids, ethanol, and “refinery gain” in its liquids production. If these types of production are omitted, the US still seems to have a deficit in producing the crude oil it consumes.
Perhaps all that is needed is the general idea. If inadequate crude oil is available, all of the countries at the left of Figure 10 are quite vulnerable because they are very dependent on imports. Russia and the Middle East are prime targets for countries that are desperate for crude oil.
[9] Conclusion: We are likely entering a period of conflict and confusion because of the way the world’s self-organizing economy behaves when there is an inadequate supply of crude oil.
The issue of how important crude oil is to the world economy has been left out of most textbooks for years. Instead, we were taught creative myths covering several topics:
- Huge amounts of fossil fuels will be available in the future
- Climate change is our worst problem
- Wind and solar will save us
- A fast transition to an all-electric economy is possible
- Electric cars are the future
- The economy will grow forever
Now we are running into a serious shortfall of crude oil. We can expect a new set of problems, including far more conflict. Wars are likely. Debt defaults are likely. Political parties will take increasingly divergent positions on how to work around current problems. News media will increasingly tell the narrative that their owners and advertisers want told, with little regard for the real situation.
About all we can do is enjoy each day we have and try not to be disturbed by the increasing conflict around us. It becomes clear that many of us will not live as long or well as we previously expected, regardless of savings or supposed government programs. There is no real way to fix this issue, except perhaps to make religion and the possibility of life after death more of a focus.
Interesting, the NZ population is about 70% European, but they make up about 40% of births. That birth pattern is projected to remain fairly stable over the next 20 years as most immigration is from Britain and Ireland, and that boosts the number of parents of European ancestry.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/719321/new-zealand-births-forecast-by-ethnicity/
* actually ‘about 40%’ is for ‘European or other’, ie. not the 7 other given categories.
Mirror, Statista bring up a popup saying it wants me to pay $40/month to view their charts. Do you do that, or is there a way around it, for example does providing email info without payment info?
It lets me see the graphs for free but not the sources. I am using Chrome with VPN on.
You may be able to see this shrunken graphic of the chart https://cdn.statcdn.com/Statistic/715000/719321-blank-355.png
blue is ‘European or other’
That’s amazing to see. I don’t know why women are (generally) oblivious to demographic replacement, but I wonder whether it has to do with the fact that almost all women reproduce but only half of men do, historically. Not that people are explicitly thinking in those terms, but rather the innate sense of risk/harm posed by the ‘other’ has evolved differently between men and women.
NZ birth rate per 1000 women of child bearing age 2017
Maori 90.62
Pacific 83.24
Asian 60.59
European or other 50.90
They are all down since 2008 bar Asian.
https://figure.nz/chart/9tLV8dlA9h3iKNrl
Christians in NZ tend to have more kids than those with no religion. The percentage of Christians in the census fell from 69% in 1991 to 58.92% in 2001 and to 37% in 2018. Most of the remaining 37% are likely older persons beyond child bearing age.
> Almost half (48.6 percent) of New Zealanders stated they had no religion in the 2018 census and 6.7 percent made no declaration. However, Christianity remains the most common religion; 37 percent of the population at the 2018 census identified as Christian.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_New_Zealand
48.6% of adults in NZ are married (not separated).
https://figure.nz/chart/baZXhAYoxhIPfUNn
Obesity rates in NZ (1/3 of adults and rising) are among the highest in the world, which is associated with reproductive abnormalities and infertility in adults.
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/obesity
So, it is becoming typical for New Zealanders of European heritage to be fat, single atheists with no kids.
You forgot to mention very Low IQ… sad NZ has for some reason mixed in some Donkey with the genome and we are paying the price — how else do you explain voting in this?
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Rzx4IuKMUUk/WtKZg44ooNI/AAAAAAAB6ig/QKpNN_RD93AtwqL0BfC17Y8nu3o5uxOywCLcBGAs/s640/Jacinda-Ardern.png
Eeee — Awwww… EEEE- AWWWWWW
Sooooo EEEEEEE
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FR3XZXuXwAECR3f?format=jpg&name=medium
The Central Banks balance sheets Vs world stocks and bonds update
Why did they stop printing?
Maybe they broke the keyboards through overuse of CTRL-P. They’ve ordered replacements, but these are still stuck in Shanghai.
Their masters went short in January.
Maybe they stopped printing because they wanted the “value” of stocks and bonds to collapse.
Accounts have been moved. Wait for signal. Front-run stock sales, cash out at highest prices, wait for the lay people to lose every savings. Buy it up on the cheap. Own it all. Then reset the financial system upon public demand. World rescued again from all evil.
Nothing to be seen here. Be Happy!
How does transmission of illness occur if viruses don’t exist
-basically d’ah!
In 1918 a sickness which had respiratory symptoms occurred around the world. This was after a large number of people had been up to their knees in mud in the trenches, exposed to mustard gas, injected with toxic vaccines, shot at, bombed, dispossessed, evacuated, malnourished, terrified, impoverished, and made homeless.
It must have a single cause though right? And it must be the flu virus.
However transmission of a virus has never shown.
Indeed the experiments on ‘Spanish Flu’ patients published in 1918 ‘Experiments Upon Volunteers to Determine the Cause and Mode of Spread of Influenza, Boston, November and December, 1918 M. J. Rosenau.’ (see page 11) (1) showed that after 62 healthy volunteers were exposed to alleged virus by breathing the fetid air of very sick ‘flu’ patients and having them repeatedly cough in their faces, much to the researchers surprise; only one developed a sore throat and not one developed influenza like illness at all.
Transmission experiments in animals also fail even after injecting ‘virus’ directly into the tracheas (which is not valid exposure) of small mammals.
https://georgiedonny.substack.com/p/how-does-transmission-of-illness
How do you feel when you read:
The paper is assuming that there is a viral cause of ‘epidemic’ diarrhoea in the pig ‘industry’. That is where (up to 10 million in one facility) intelligent, sentient beings are imprisoned (often in cages (birthing crates) where they can’t even turn around), highly stressed (a bit of an understatement), never seeing the sun, or feeling the grass, standing all day in their own shit, eating abnormal to their diet fodder, being injected multiple times with toxic vaccines, fail to thrive (!) and must be drugged with enough antibiotics (which cause GI issues) to keep them alive long enough to slaughter at 6 months.
However diarrhoea in these animals must have a single cause and it must be a virus otherwise how does sickness transmit?
‘Original Antigenic Sin’ Mentioned in the New England Journal of Medicine
https://dailysceptic.org/2022/05/03/original-antigenic-sin-mentioned-in-the-new-england-journal-of-medicine/
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FR5lbUFXsAEJh2k?format=jpg&name=large
The Fed can raise the federal funds rate to only 1.5% this time before they destroy the world
Interesting! And it doesn’t look like bursting the “everything bubble” is very far away.
hey mike…. ya mike…. hey mike… yes mike…
Check it out mike…. https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/35235
Career over — before it started!!!
https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/id/33837793/danish-teen-holger-rune-wins-bmw-open-botic-van-de-zandschulp-retires-due-chest-pains
Danish teen Holger Rune wins BMW Open after Botic van de Zandschulp retires due to chest pains
Danish teenager Holger Rune became the fifth first-time winner on the ATP Tour this year after winning the BMW Open against Botic…
Hahahahaha… and no healthy kids have died from covid hahahahaha
12,548 Children have suffered a Serious Adverse Event due to the COVID Vaccines in the USA; and 106 Kids have sadly died
“Official data published by the CDC has revealed that 106 children have now sadly died following Covid-19 vaccination in the USA. The deaths have been reported among 12,548 serious adverse events among children ranging from hospitalisation to permanent disability”
https://dailyexpose.uk/2022/05/04/children-suffer-due-to-covid-vaccination/
The tennis players who have reported chest pains are all dropping in the rankings. Must be difficult giving it 100% suspecting to do so could result in death. However, Van de Zandschulp won a tight match yesterday. Being 26, he’s not really at the start of his career.
Nadal makes his return after his rib injury (?) today. He’s not one to hold back, so will be interesting to see how he does.
I found out this weekend that my nieces husband had two jabs and has been having heart problems ever since the 2nd jab. It is getting bad now and he is going in for a full heart workup.
From the website consciousness of a sheep, provided by someone earlier in this comment section :
They find themselves in the midst of the worst economic crisis in living memory – not, as some within the elite would like you to believe, because of Russian oil and gas supplies which are still flowing and are not yet subject to sanctions – with the very real prospect of a perfect storm in the autumn as a central bank-induced financial collapse, the non-renewal of Russian oil and gas contracts, global food shortages and a serious challenge to the global dollar currency system arrive more or less simultaneously.
I like this excerpt from thr website
This is a very worrisome situation!
Very quietly McMaster University has installed defibrillators in multiple locations. Curious, eh? Are they expecting more cardiac events? Hmm, do they actually know what we know?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FR3sR3kUcAI_zvi?format=jpg&name=large
The bottom half of population is used to scraping by. Their lives are not dependent on mass consumption. Its the top 10% of population that will feel even the slightest constraints as their entire way of life is 100% dependent on the flow of energy and goods.
In an energy-constrained future what will become of the empirical sciences, e.g., physical chemistry, galactic astrophysics, molecular neurobiology?
SOMEWHAT REPLACED BY THE NEW EMPIRICAL SCIENCE of testing each proactive. move we make as a society. Nothing clear and sure. Test, test, test. And constantly report and discuss.
Too expensive to continue. I have told a few trusted friends that my field of research will collapse in 2023. On the other hand, what do we really need to know, that is not known, to cope with the world that is coming? I dare say there is more than sufficient evidence to set up a system that develops human health and a relatively sustainable life for the small fraction that will survive. It is important that this knowledge be transmitted, if need be orally.
And what field is that? I thought you said you’re in Russia – you guys should have greater resources than anyone else, per capita, going forward.
resources per capita isn’t the problem
making profitable use of them is the problem
hey norm https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=1621
the field I was working on when in the US. It is a physics sub field.
” It is important that this knowledge be transmitted, if need be orally.”
What knowledge would that be?
Survival.
I’m not able to think straight, and doubt that anyone is. The only system we’re down to is a globalized centralized one. Only a tiny fraction of people would know how to survive even if they had good land and good water. The globalized centralized system seems hell bent on killing most of us. It operates like a moving target. Escape of a disciplined cadre into “monasteries” which practice empiricalism around survival is theoretically possible. No one knows. Handling nuclear waste could be a monastic task of sorts…
Kinda like this?
https://youtu.be/1SpCHb6Gzvc
Those are useless BS sciences anyway. Goid riddance.
physical chemistry is BS science?
Don’t expect to hear much in the future from Machival.
oh
Union College Sophomore Gets Expelled for Refusing Booster Shot, Despite Her Doctor Saying Her Getting Booster Is ‘Ill-Advised’
https://thechicagothinker.com/exclusive-union-college-sophomore-gets-expelled-for-refusing-booster-shot-despite-her-doctor-saying-her-getting-booster-is-ill-advised/
I 100% support vigilante justice for all
hahahaha… where are you mike — we see you lurking … hiding in the corner in the pie shop… trying to work out what to do with these facts… https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=1621
Take the easy way out mike — Get Another Booster … Boosters Good baaaaaaah…..
hey mike remember how you said it was a pandemic of the unvaxxed and that the injections stopped bad outcomes?
I remember.
Is this fake news? https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=1621
Vax injury?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/former-tvnz-cameraman-joseph-days-best-mate-in-disbelief-after-police-find-body-in-search/XKVGQWCGOLMBOHDIA5R4HCRPHI/
26k raised to bring a dead body back to NZ? Jeez… don’t they know we are running low on energy … and why so much $$$ — fill him with anti-rot and stick him in a box in cargo….
Severe cases of COVID causing cognitive impairment equivalent to ageing 20 years, new study finds
“It is very possible that some of these individuals will never fully recover,” a Cambridge professor has warned, with around 400,000 people in the UK who may be impacted.
https://news.sky.com/story/severe-cases-of-covid-causing-cognitive-impairment-equivalent-to-ageing-20-years-new-study-finds-12604629
🥱 yawn lies… lies … lies just propaganda to get people to get in line for their new vax
More vax injuries labelled long covid…
More Boosters
norm mike? https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=1621
The MOREONS will read this and in horror – rush to the clinic for another Booster…
Forgetting that the injections don’t stop them from getting Covid
hahahahahaha… stoooopid dunces hahahahaha
BA 12 variant detected in Bihar, said to cause 10-times worse Covid
Bihar health authorities have detected a case of the new Omicron Covid-19 variant, BA 2.12, which is said to be 10 times more dangerous than the BA 2 variant, in a Patna hospital.
https://thefederal.com/covid-19/ba-12-variant-detected-in-bihar-said-to-cause-10-times-worse-covid/
BA.2.12.1 poised to become dominant in US, raising concern for future vaccines
Omicron subvariants are evading vaccines and infection-derived protections.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/05/omicron-subvariant-ba-2-12-1-now-36-5-of-us-cases-can-evade-ba-1-antibodies/
Covid Omicron Variant BA.2.12.1 Spreading Quickly Across United States; Related Cases Up Nearly 100% In Past Two Weeks
https://deadline.com/2022/05/covid-omicron-variant-ba-2-12-1-spreading-quickly-united-states-1235015293/
NICE find!!! A bolt of adrenaline shot through my body when I read it… I’m a bit dizzy … gotta sit down for a sec….
Mirror are you ok with this post?
I’m off for a shoot around and will dig into this With Delight when I am back… Devil Covid????
Even if it’s not yet — this is how it will happen … it starts with a story about a ‘troubling’ new mutation … and then within days … The Dying Begins.
hahahahaha… and then it’s time to pop the popcorn… none of that crap microwave shit … go real deal … into the pot on the flame… some olive oil and a bit of salt….
The fruits of 2000 years of Christianity?
The first link is from India. It is not clear to me that the variant is really any “worse.”
China’s Omicron vaccine expected to complete clinical trials in 3-4 months
BEIJING, April 27 (Xinhua) — Clinical trials for China’s vaccine against Omicron variants are expected to conclude in three to four months and will be gradually put into use, according to the vaccine developer on Wednesday.
http://en.people.cn/n3/2022/0428/c90000-10090523.html
Even if the Fed fails disastrously on a soft landing, it’ll be a comfort knowing they made laser eyes extinct.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FR4KHpcXoAEW9_3?format=jpg&name=medium
The life in Russia is not nice:
The f…..g cold continental winters and the hot summers with zillions of mosquitos on the swampy plains:
https://youtu.be/gMuButLwpXc
Go, Russia, go!!!
Go West?
https://youtu.be/n1VbdIuT4oA
Go, Russia, go!!!
after stopping FF delivery to Europe later this year, Putin will generously allow Russian citizens to turn up their thermostats this coming winter, and they will all be nice and toasty warm.
Europeans, uh, not so much.
Go, Russia, go!!!!
You could do what Agathia’s parents did and go way off grid.
A Russian friend was disconcerted during his first visit to England when, on waking up in the middle of the night, he notice the heating had gone off.
He asked his hosts in the morning when the repair man would arrive?
He simply could not believe their answer that the heating was timed to go off at night:
‘The first time I’ve ever been cold indoors was in England, not Russia, imagine that!’
Even better, he was brought up in Siberia.
I have had two apartments here. Both horribly hot. I am one who sleeps well at 10-15C. And, honestly, I see no reason to spend the day in my underwear and having to quickly dress when the bell rings. I can’t wait to have my own house. There will be a wood stove, so the living room can be cozy, and the bedrooms cool.
I was never so cold indoors as in Rome, since our apt.bldg did the opposite: figuring few were home during the day, they turned off the heat and turned it back on at night. It would be 12°C (54°F) at two in the afternoon.
Where do east European countries get their oil and gas?
Texas now, it is well known. This can be done sustainably and for a long time, and will generate no problems whatsoever. The Russians will have been eaten alive by mosquitoes, all of them, by the time those FF end.
Mostly Russia, I expect.
So what is your point?
The same can be said of many places…Canadian wilderness for example….cold as hell in winter and full of hug monster mosquitoes in summer.
Fake fake fake https://markcrispinmiller.substack.com/p/close-observers-shoot-down-still
Here’s a bit of optimism…
M Fast wants a flower garden – so I extend the rabbit fence on the rabbit garden and with great effort Dig Up the Soil to prep it… what kinda flowers you want I ask – tulips and peonies… ok so I order the flowers — (this is the optimism – that we make it to Spring)… the peony lady says — best to cut the heads off for the first two years to ensure the roots go deep — WTF? – so no flowers till yr 3???? I just wasted $126 bucks!!!
Perhaps what I will do is dig a hole in the middle of where I plant the peonies… and When the Time Comes — lay down in it and expire — hopefully someone will be around to toss some dirt on my — and I’ll be part of a peony garden… in fact my guts will be recycled into the peony flowers..
A pleasant thought…
Much greener than a courier picking up my plastic …. my mind is still blown by that… what madness
Fast, always seems to find the positives. As the saying goes when life gives you lemons. make lemonade. 🙂
Is the Polish army ready to enter Western Ukraine?
GUR (military intelligence) says Polish Army was ordered to be brought into readiness to enter Lvov and Volyn. The authenticity of the document has not been confirmed, but the GUR can be forging these documents to create panic.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FRxhuFVXMAMJPlO?format=jpg&name=large
Polish president Duda saying that there will not be a border between Poland and Ukraine. That we will live together.
It is my opinion that Galicia becoming Polish is part of the Russian plan. Duda will backtrack from those statements, once it becomes clear which kind of ecoomic burden rump Ukraine is. They will keep Galicia and leave today’s northern Ukraine to the wolves. In 20 years there will be solid borders, with Poland, Hungary and Romania bordering Russia.
I found this historical review the other day. See what you think.
https://pete843.substack.com/p/the-road-to-war-in-ukraine?s=r
excellent link thank you. Yes, the green (light or dark) will be gone, along with all the left bank. Russia will have a land bridge to Crimea and to Transnistria. Russia will also encourage encroachment from Hungary and Poland, as partitioning is one of the unsaid goals. Moldavia is quite pro-russian, and might over time drift to Russia just so that the lights can be kept on. Rump Ukraine will drift eastward for the same reason.
Nice maps!
The gap between job openings/hires has never been so wide..
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FR3ni2AX0AAmoyL?format=jpg&name=900×900
More energy going to serve the needs of employers than to serve the needs of workers. Employers think that citizens will be able to pay for their expanded services, and that there will be resources available for their expanded services, but the real world can’t provide this outcome.
Growing number of U.S. states reporting mysterious hepatitis outbreaks among children
The children are between the ages of 1 month to 16 years old with typical symptoms of acute hepatitis, including jaundice, abdominal pain and diarrhea.
Minnesota is one of the latest states to report several cases, with M Health Fairview reporting two cases to Minnesota Department of Health involving an infant and a 2 year old, one who was treated several months ago while the other who required a liver transplant, according to KSTP-TV.
“Why this kid had such severe acute hepatitis is unknown,” said Dr. Heli Bhatt, pediatric gastroenterologist and transplant hepatologist at M Health Fairview.
https://www.foxnews.com/health/growing-number-u-s-states-reporting-mysterious-pediatric-hepatitis-cases
If the young are susceptible to germs coming from their vaccinated parents we could be looking at a mass infection rate for all the young with hepatitis i betcha the elders didn’t see this one coming if this mass infection of the young proves fatal we could end up with no children in the world in the years to come just like in the movie ‘Children of Men’ imagine that
Vaxxed or sucking the teat of a vaxxed mother?
Vile dirty injected scum
norm – mike — speak! https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=1621
Russia preparing to evacuate families of officers from Transnistria
The situation in Transnistria itself remains tense following attacks that Russia has attributed to Ukraine, units of the operational group of Russian troops remain in full combat readiness.
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-705806
Still no video …
And this?
https://images.jpost.com/image/upload/f_auto,fl_lossy/t_JD_ArticleMainImageFaceDetect/498972
This perplexes me. Ukraine troops have resisted so far because they are dug in. Once they march on Tiraspol, it is going to be a massacre. This is where intermediate cadres may rebel, and it is well known that they decide everything.
Almost never is there any video of this ‘war’
Anyone have the drone footage of the tank blasting the wrecked building with nobody in it and no dead bodies or fighters anywhere? Why would they do that?
eddy
you were going to let me have the pay rates for crisis actors in Ukraine:
a—standard walk on/off surrender stuff
b—some bleeding
c—something broken–leg or arm
d—full on dead
I hope they got a refund from those bodies who got up as soon as the car with the camera went by.
Pelosi: Russia’s War Requires “Strongest Military Response”
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said Monday that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine warrants the “strongest possible military response” and that the US shouldn’t be deterred by warnings from Russia.
Pelosi made the comments from Poland a day after a trip to Ukraine, where she met with Ukrainian President Voldymr Zelensky in Kyiv. The House speaker received a warm reception from Zelensky, who presented her with the Order of Princess Olga, a Ukrainian civil decoration presented to women who make contributions to the Ukrainian state.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pelosi-russias-war-requires-strongest-military-response
Pelosi just signed the bill enrollment for the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022.
This bill bolsters Biden’s authority to send critical defensive resources to Ukraine.
The bill is now headed to the President’s desk.
https://mobile.twitter.com/NickKnudsenUS/status/1521283783281979393
Another warmongering Washington neocon. Washington’s primary export business for many decades has been War, plain and simple. If they are not selling weaponry, overthrowing countries, involving themselves in more endless wars, the neocons are not happy. They only enjoy life by making the lives of innocent people, miserable.
These bullsh*t sanctions have hurt more innocent people but Washington neocons don’t care. They are always on the hunt for a new boogeyman. First it was Iran, then Iraq, followed by Syria, Libya, Yemen. Now it’s Russia’s turn which will be followed by China.
Eventually the schoolyard bully picks the wrong fight and gets punched punched in the nose.
What is sad is that it takes 60 years to repay land-lease debts. Both Russia and the UK paid their last in 2006. And if you do the math, it is 20% of current Ukraine GDP per year. Usury truly is the biggest evil in the world.
If there aren’t really resources available to repay the debt, true repayment cannot happen.
This Time, NATO Better Take Putin’s Ukraine Warnings Seriously
“As they did during the prewar period, NATO countries are ignoring the warnings coming out of Moscow. Adopting a defiant stance, they instead are boosting their military aid and creating a full-fledged proxy war against Russia. The Kremlin’s warnings are becoming more strident. Putin himself recently admonished NATO members not to test Russia’s patience by continuing to escalate their support for Ukraine. Margarita Simonyan, the editor-in-in chief of both RT and Sputnik and a close associate of the Russian president, stated that Russia might have little choice except to use nuclear weapons if Western policy continues on its current course.”
“Once again, though, hawks in the foreign policy blob are supremely confident that continued US and NATO belligerence will deter the Kremlin. Michael McFaul, a former US ambassador to Russia, contends blithely that warnings from Putin about using nuclear weapons in response to mounting Western military assistance to Kyiv should be ignored.”
“The threat of escalation is cheap talk,” McFaul states confidently. “Putin is bluffing.”
“In an April 27 Wall Street Journal op-ed, former deputy undersecretary of the Navy Seth Cropsey even emphasized that the United States must be prepared to demonstrate that it would “win” a nuclear war against Russia. Other hawks pressure the Biden administration not to give in to Russia’s “nuclear blackmail.” They seem serenely oblivious to the probable consequences if they are wrong. Two analysts even scorned the administration for being excessively fearful of a direct “skirmish” with Russia, as though a clash with a major nuclear power would be the equivalent of a dust-up on a middle school playground. Unfortunately, the policies that Washington is pursuing by pouring arms into Ukraine and creating a proxy war against Russia suggest that administration policymakers may be nearly as clueless as the ultra-hawks outside government to the dangers.”
https://www.globalresearch.ca/this-time-nato-better-take-putin-ukraine-warnings-seriously/5779301
What you don’t need in times like these is a false alarm which happened around the late 70’s or early 80’s where a Russian defense soldier thought his radar showing Nukes heading towards Russia. The Russians called Washington and discovered it was a false alarm.
If that were to happen today, say buh bye to pretty much every major city around the world.
Able Archer 1983: Brink Of Apocalypse
If there isn’t enough fossil fuels to go around, countries may be willing to battle, even though rationally it seems to make little sense.
it does seem to be one of the laws of warfare, that wars have consumed more resources than are gained by the wars fought over those resources.
ww2 may appear to differ from that—but only because the USA could continue to pump ‘free’ resources out of the ground
OK everything you said was spot on, except when you got to the point at the end about making religion a focus as a solution. What did you mean by this.
Gail is expressly stating that “ predicaments” do not have actionable solutions.
There is no way to stop the Seneca collapse event that is unfolding. Thus a focus on the next world may be reasonable.
In the absence of hope — despair breeds…. particularly if you have children and grand children….
(or if one is a hardened misanthrope)
Did I mention I was entering the Frankton roundabout yesterday and I had to wait as a southlands truck cleared out – I could see the sheep inside the truck through the slats in the trailer…
I shed a tear for them.
I was tempted to run the truck off the road – hack the driver to pieces and open the door letting the sheep escape … but then I realized the futility of it …. so I did nothing…
Knowing that soon… the nightmare will be over for the animals…
Everything I can see says that there really is a literal “Higher Power” that made the whole expanding Universe possible. This Higher Power created the laws of physics and made evolution possible.
Earthly authorities, in recent years, have favored the theory that they have all power. The models they build, showing that the economy can expand, essentially forever, are correct. Unfortunately, both history and the laws of physics show that they are incorrect. Invariably, population growth exceeds the amount of necessary resources that can be extracted for the growing population. The result is “(population) overshoot and collapse.”
We have known about this issue for a very long time. We have even known that the time when we would run short of resources would probably take place in the first half of the 21st century. See this speech from 1957:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2007/07/02/speech-from-1957-predicting-peak-oil/
unfortunately 1957 puts us in the peak period of the American dream.
the energy-burst that drove and won ww2 had been continued into the post war era, to keep oil and employment flowing forward at an ever increasing rate.
War toys had been rendered into peace toys. We had to have more of everything, because the opposite meant a return to the privations of the 30s. Any fool could figure that out.
so obviously no one was going to listen
Carter did his best, but it cost him his job.
Boy, talk about perfect timing…I was born at the beginning of 1958!! Thanks Mom and Dad! To boot I was an unexpected surprise package.
Not to pack myself on the back, but I predicted 2022 to be the year of collapse on the other Peak Oil News Site…it was based on numerology…02/22/2022….
Something about an Angel.
Yes, Gail is correct again …a higher Power
Agreed!
50/50 chance the Fast Eddy turns out to be the higher power….
well you can count on your tailor’s vote eddy
Fresh Hell…
We’ve partnered with the Packaging Forum and Future Post to make the recycling of your household soft plastics easy, with our pre-paid Soft Plastic Recycle Courier bags*.
Buy a pre-paid Soft Plastic Recycle Courier bag, fill it with your clean soft plastics, book a courier for pick-up, and we’ll take care of the rest – helping to transform your plastics into long-life products like fence posts.
Head into selected NZ Post stores, online, or through one of our retail partners: The Warehouse, Warehouse Stationery and select New World stores and TheMarket.com to grab yours for NZ $7.
The whole soft plastic journey is included in the price of your bag, right from booking a courier pick up, through to dropping off your plastics to Future Post.
Click here for more details. https://www.nzpost.co.nz/about-us/sustainability/soft-plastic-recycle-courier-bags
Hahahaha …. This is madness… a courier is going to burn petrol – to pick up my waste plastic … that is to be packed in more plastic… and the whole lot will no doubt be dumped in a river in the Philippines… or burned in a backyard fire ….
But hey if I do this I am Green!
I think … no… I prefer to burn my soft plastic in … the Rayburn…. we need to do our part and poison NZers with dioxin… why should we ship to the Philippines and poison them????
Oh shit – did I leave the Bat Mobile and the Ute idling all night … gosh… I’ll have to switch them off… maybe after lunch
I thought there were essentially 5 different chemical types of plastics used and that recycling back into their isolated types was woefully impracticable, cost or energy inefficient, or chemically not doable. A long one way trip from the consumer to the central Pacific Ocean floating plastic garbage dump.
One of those MPP/MEPP things.
Spikes (and knobs)
Proteins of unknown origin or significance
https://georgiedonny.substack.com/p/spikes-and-knobs?s=r
They have unleashed something terrible on us, the world, and something is not right with the mRNA lipid nano particle platform; this non-sterilizing vaccine is adding fire to it, forcing variants
it is all behaving unnatural…IMO what is needed now is urgent stop, immediate stop of the ineffective failed vaccine that is harmful…stop! infections will never end if we keep vaccinating
https://palexander.substack.com/p/they-have-unleashed-something-terrible
Bring IT Bro….you don’t have the whole pogrom and only a bit of the who!e…
Ride it out…you might like it Edwin.
Now..back to OFW
SAM METZ
Tue, May 3, 2022, 3:28 PM
SALT LAKE CITY (AP) — U.S. officials announced plans Tuesday that they characterized as extraordinary to keep hundreds of billions of gallons of water stored in a reservoir on the Utah-Arizona line to prevent it from shrinking more amid prolonged drought and climate change.
The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation plans to hold back about 480,000 acre-feet of water in Lake Powell to maintain Glen Canyon Dam’s ability to produce hydropower for millions of homes and businesses in the region. That’s roughly enough water to serve 1 million to 1.5 million average households annually.
Tanya Trujillo, the bureau’s assistant secretary of water and science, said keeping the water stored in the reservoir would stave off hydropower concerns for at least 12 months, giving officials time to strategize for how to operate the dam at a lower water elevation. The lake currently holds less than one-fourth of its full capacity and the dam produces electricity for about 5 million customers in seven U.S. states.
“We have never taken this step before in the Colorado River basin, but conditions we see today and the potential risks we see on the horizon demand that we take prompt action,” Trujillo said
….SAM METZ
Tue, May 3, 2022, 3:28 PM
SALT LAKE CITY (AP) — U.S. officials announced plans Tuesday that they characterized as extraordinary to keep hundreds of billions of gallons of water stored in a reservoir on the Utah-Arizona line to prevent it from shrinking more amid prolonged drought and climate change.
The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation plans to hold back about 480,000 acre-feet of water in Lake Powell to maintain Glen Canyon Dam’s ability to produce hydropower for millions of homes and businesses in the region. That’s roughly enough water to serve 1 million to 1.5 million average households annually.
Tanya Trujillo, the bureau’s assistant secretary of water and science, said keeping the water stored in the reservoir would stave off hydropower concerns for at least 12 months, giving officials time to strategize for how to operate the dam at a lower water elevation. The lake currently holds less than one-fourth of its full capacity and the dam produces electricity for about 5 million customers in seven U.S. states.
“We have never taken this step before in the Colorado River basin, but conditions we see today and the potential risks we see on the horizon demand that we take prompt action,” Trujillo said.
The decision will not have any immediate impacts on the amount of water allocated for the region’s cities. And it won’t affect farms that rely on the Colorado River, which already face mandatory cuts in central Arizona.
But it illustrates the compounding challenges facing Mexico and the seven U.S. states that rely on the Colorado River, which supplies water to about 40 million people and a $5 billion-a-year agricultural sector
When the outlaw flushing toilets I know then its serious…pee you
Percentage of commodity markets in backwardation
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FR01rd9WQAAsG-G?format=png&name=900×900
Obviously I do not hold that there is any ‘moral truth’ on this matter either way, and rather it is for a people to decide whether and when to allow it. There has been over 10 million legal abortions in Britain since 1967.
> Probe ordered into Roe v. Wade leak
Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts has ordered the court’s marshal to investigate the source of a leaked draft opinion showing that its justices would imminently strike down the landmark Roe v. Wade ruling. Conservatives suspect that a liberal clerk leaked the document to generate public outcry and force the court to backtrack.
“Yesterday, a news organization published a copy of a draft opinion in a pending case,” Roberts, a conservative, wrote on Tuesday.
“To the extent this betrayal of the confidences of the Court was intended to undermine the integrity of our operations, it will not succeed,” he continued. “The work of the Court will not be affected in any way.”
Politico on Monday published the draft decision, which stated that the court had voted by 5-3, with one vote undecided, to overturn Roe v. Wade, a 1973 ruling that guaranteed the absolute right to a first-trimester abortion and limited rights in the second. A 1992 ruling upholding Roe v. Wade – Planned Parenthood v. Casey – would also be overturned.
Writing the majority opinion, Justice Samuel Alito declared that the US Constitution offered no right to abortion, and that Roe v. Wade rested on an “egregiously wrong” and “exceptionally weak” interpretation of the country’s founding document. Striking down this ruling would “return the issue of abortion to the people’s elected representatives” on the state level, he wrote.
https://www.rt.com/news/554923-roe-wade-leak-investigation/
Back in the days of our founding fathers, kids where hard to come by, I.e., survive past the very young age where they could help out on the farm. The founding fathers may not have even thought about abortion because it went against the very idea of trying to have large families.
The entire debacle smacks of a shambles and a farce.
USA is supposedly a ‘democracy’, and not eg. a theocratic state. But some laws are to be put beyond the remit of the demos in a short ‘constitution’, which is inevitably vaguely expressed and hedged, and ‘supreme’ judges then argue about what it ‘means’ or ‘implies’. They insist for 50 years that it ‘contains’ or at least ‘implies’ a right to abortion, and then another group of ‘supreme’ judges decides the opposite. Whatever.
The approach of liberals now seems to be to say that, ‘the founding fathers were sexist anyway, so what do you expect?’
The USA is moving towards theocratic dictatorship–another forecast I’ve been making for the last 10 years
Alito’s draft heavily references English legal precedent, including that of famed jurist Sir Matthew Hale who, it should be noted, had at least two women executed for witchcraft and wrote a treatise supporting marital rape
https://twitter.com/emilybell/status/1521450341983739904?t=Rxkd_DLULYXYLQEJiuo0tA&s=03
Right, who even cares what nutters 400 years ago thought about anything?
we should care
because our collective mindset hasn’t evolved since then.
When Margaret Atwood wrote the Handmaids Tale—she put nothing into it that had not happened somewhere in the world.
That nations are moving towards forms of fascism cannot now be in doubt, and the theocratic version is certain for the USA.
it will happen because energy depletion will bring about severe privation.
the fascist leader will blame ‘others’—and the mindless mob will agree with him.
The godnuts will blame ‘sinners’ and the mindless mob will agree with them too.
Trump used the same mindless mob to chant ‘lock her up’–d’you think he was joking?
‘jesus will not return until we have cleansed the world of sin’
bear in mind that a god who does not exist can never be appeased–but the jesusfreaks will go on trying. Abortion is a ‘sin’ that can be ‘dealt with’—so lets do that. There will be plenty of other sins to follow on–LGBTQ etc–is another big one.
If Roe vs Wade goes down–they will be next
also think that Galileo said the earth went around the sun..it nearly cost him his life. It took the catholic church 400 years to formally admit he was right.
the same nutters are with us now—and they want to run your country. And mine.
Ignore them at your peril.
Wall Street sees greater risk of default by major banks
The cost to insure bonds of Goldman Sachs , Morgan Stanley and Citigroup against default hit two-year highs on Monday on growing fears the U.S. Federal Reserve’s aggressive moves to tame inflation might tip the economy into recession.
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/wall-street-sees-greater-risk-of-default-by-major-banks
Banks cannot do well with all of these problems.
They will be bailed out with helicopter money. It is too risky to let them go down
I hear that thrown around a lot but how long can it go on? Eventually something is going to break
Mercifully, nuclear war will save us from peak oil 🙂
Respectfully, No. Replace “us” with “me” and I shall not object even though I reject fatalism; sooner or later we all pass, before that time there is always tomorrow.
“fatalism can breed indifference to the human costs of war”
Dennis L.
“fatalism can breed indifference to the human costs of war”
Obviously you are not grounded in reality and still think that, at this point of time, you can do something to make a difference.
We have gone past the cliff, just waiting for the splat. What kind of splat are we looking at? Immediate death or 50 broken bones and die 3 days later in agony?
Splat is better than days of agony… (skinning alive his horrible … as is rape… being eaten oh gawd…) We need UEP …
In fact I dedicate all religious services to the Great God UEP — the God that unites us in peace and harmony — who delivers us from Evil … from Horror….
Oh supreme God UEP bring us the Great Sickness… for only the Great Sickness can prevent The Ripping of Faces…. forgive those such as Kirsch and Bossche and McCullough who attempt to destroy you – for they know not what they do …
We embrace you UEP — as our Saviour … deliver this Sickness and make our Extinction a pleasant affair.
Ehhhhh- men Allah Akkk Akkk Bar…. Om Shanti — sim sim sala bim…. United as One under the God UEP.
A line about fate from one of my two favorite movies of all time (the other being “Breaker Morant “). They are military related but center about being scapegoated. It happens whether you are in the military or in medicine.
But from “Mission of the Shark” a movie about the sinking of the USS Indianapolis comes the question of fate. In this case, whether individually or collectively. Japanese sub commander Hashimoto says: “Often I have thought of the consequences of not having stopped you on the way to your mission, instead of on the return…but that was not to be.” The USS Indianapolis was delivering components for final assemby of the atom bomb.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WuQzk6szO4g @1:27:53
And then the devastating final exchange a few seconds later @ 1:28:13
Hashimoto to Stacey Keach as Captain McVay, capt of the USS Indianapolis, “Captain, you are a man who believes in fate?”
McVay (Keach): No. I am a man who is trying to accept it.
Hashimoto: “It’s not easy to be a survivor.”
Fate – looking back in your life (in hind sight), do you find that many events are sheer coincidences? The events changed your life to who you are today but looking back, sheer coincidences…
Every day we survive, a Victory, comrade Dennis! Onwards, citizens!
This is looking more and more like the truth of our situation: oh for the days when we hoped it would be like this only in 2030/35,,,,,,,
Brazil’s Inflation Is So Bad Even Central Bank Workers Protest
(Bloomberg) — Inflation is so rampant in Brazil, having surpassed 12% a year in early April, that workers at the institution in charge of taming prices are themselves on strike, demanding wage raises to recover lost purchasing power.
Brazil’s central bank employees in Brasilia stopped working on Tuesday, piling pressure on the institution to increase their salaries by 26% to compensate for losses to inflation in the past few years. The walkout, which doesn’t involve the bank’s senior leadership, coincides with the start of deliberations on whether to keep increasing interest rates after one of the world’s most aggressive monetary tightening cycles in the wake of the pandemic.
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/brazils-inflation-is-so-bad-even-central-bank-workers-protest
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Does anyone believe this guy? He imposed lock down rules on the country, but he ‘did not understand’ them, and he is ‘not a liar’.
> Boris insists to Susanna Reid he IS honest and just got it ‘wrong’ on Partygate as he’s grilled on GMB – while poll finds Tories face losing 550 SEATS in local elections on Thursday in worst showing since Blair was Labour leader
It would be the worst showing since Tony Blair was Labour leader in the 1990s
Boris Johnson facing threat of a coup from MPs in the wake of Partygate scandal
Boris Johnson today insisted he is honest and just got it ‘wrong’ over Partygate as he faces a huge blow in local elections with a poll suggesting the Tories are set to lose nearly 550 seats.
The PM said he did his best to represent his beliefs ‘faithfully and accurately’ as he was interviewed by Susanna Reid on ITV’s Good Morning Britain.
A clearly uncomfortable Mr Johnson stressed that he ‘inadvertently’ misled Parliament over whether lockdown rules were breached in Downing Street, and had apologised since being fined by police. He said he had not received any other penalty notices yet but had ‘no idea’ whether that would change.
He also wriggled as he was grilled on how he was going to help people with the cost-of-living crisis, batting away calls for a windfall tax on energy firms reaping the benefits of soaring oil and gas prices.
Mr Johnson conceded that inflation could hit 10 per cent in the coming months, and suggested there was ‘more’ the government could do – but declined to say what that might be.
The comments came as a shock survey found Labour is in line to gain more than 800 councillors in the contests on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives could see their numbers dive by 548 – in what would be a disastrous result for the PM as MPs mull a coup in the wake of the Partygate scandal.
It would be the worst Tory showing since Tony Blair was Labour leader, with flagship councils such as Wandsworth and Westminster on the line as well as Southampton and Thurrock.
The latest research for Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now interviewed 1,749 adults in the 201 councils holding ballots this week. (Daily Mail)
There are two days to go until the May elections in NI and on Britain. This Liverpool University poll in NI has a fairly wide margin of error of 3.1%. The upshot could be that SF takes FM and a non-sectarian party takes second place. The actual result may be quite different.
SF 26.6%
DUP and Alliance 18.2% each
UUP 12.1%
SDLP 10.5%
TUV 5.7%
Green 2.7%
PBP 2.1%
Others 3.9%
> Exclusive: Sinn Féin extends poll lead as Alliance neck-and-neck with DUP
SINN Féin has extended its lead over the DUP and is on target to emerge as the comfortable winner of Thursday’s assembly election, a fresh opinion poll forecasts.
https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2022/05/03/news/polling-forecasts-sinn-fe-in-to-be-comfortable-winner-in-stormont-election-2658432/
“OPEC Has Missed Its Oil Output Target Once Again.
“Force majeure in Libya and under-production in Nigeria have led to a much lower increase in OPEC production for the month of April than was called for by the cartel’s supply agreement.”
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Production-Declines-in-Libya-And-Nigeria-Are-Hindered-OPECs-April-Oil-Output.html
“The oil market could lose as much as 2 million barrels a day of Russian crude in coming weeks, when the hit from existing sanctions becomes apparent, BP’s chief executive has said…
“Looney added BP doesn’t expect any “let off” in oil prices and market volatility soon, given the drop in volumes reaching the market.”
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-oil-crude-supply-shock-bp-eu-ban-ukraine-sanctions-2022-5
“The U.S. Shale Patch Is Facing A Plethora Of Problems…
“…the rig count is going steadily higher, but production from the eight major shale basins has leveled off and, as of Feb, 22, has actually slightly declined. If the May edition of the DPR confirms this trend then there is going to have to be a drastic reevaluation of what will be expected from shale in the future.”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-US-Shale-Patch-Is-Facing-A-Plethora-Of-Problems.amp.html
This doesn’t sound good at all!
This seems to summarize one of the big problem of the oil companies:
Oil companies also can’t get investment capital, given the preference of investors for low carbon or no carbon solutions (in other words, subsidized investments that aren’t really solutions).
The oil does not matter, the EU only needs the LNG shipped.
Why don’t they need oil?
Sarcastic remark.
Very interesting simulation by Princeton University of what would happen with a nuclear escalation. Very short and clear. I suggest you.
https://youtu.be/2jy3JU-ORpo
Again I see that youtube must have disabled automatic preview also in this case.
Maybe there is function that disables automatic preview for ‘delicate’ content.
Anyway, in case of further interest, the simulation is part of an analysis presented by Chris Marthenson:
https://peakprosperity.com/unpacking-the-wests-role-and-response-to-the-russian-invasion/
The links are not direct youtube.com links, but use the “copy video URL” feature via right-click on a youtube video that results in a shortened URL, so that’s why the preview is not available.
The shortened URLs allow youtube to track who provided the link that others followed.
If you simply copy-paste the URL from the URL-bar, this won’t happen and you’ll get the preview.
Thank you.
Let’s see now 🙂
Sobering,
Whatever one’s side, in the US we are seemingly in an endless loop of “hate.” There appear to be some who have figured how to benefit from this hate for their own personal gain.
Hate destroys the hater, it seems to be a positive feedback loop. It is not good for the group and we only survive as a group.
If indeed this video is somewhat close to correct, it resulted in the destruction of the US; is this the ultimate example of virtue signaling? “War Games,” the movie, the only move is not to play.
Dennis L.
OFW..ers will not be phased by talk of Nuclear War as they have steeled themselves on talk of Peak Oil for years(decades?).
What we have been dissecting here on OFW is that Peak Oil is antithetical to all the ills of the Modern World- Climate Change, Plandemics, MAD etc & etc
You can’t have Resource Depletion AND increasing complexity!
L the ills which seem so painful now will soon be irrelevant….rejoice!
Reading between the lines:
“The two US manufacturing PMIs released today – they’re based on the views of manufacturing executives about their own companies compared to what they saw in the prior month – painted a similar picture for April: raging unrelenting inflation, supply constraints, and strong demand.”
https://wolfstreet.com/2022/05/02/us-manufactures-inflation-is-out-of-control-has-not-peaked-but-intensified-amid-strong-demand-shortages-and-lengthening-lead-times/
The headline grabs one attention, reading the entire post shows there is improvement; the PMI are backward looking; I experienced early delivery of a JD product recently. Interest rates on Toyota autos are below 2%.
Some stuff is a pain to source, but it still can be sourced.
Volatility is a huge problem for those with high fixed costs, ie.large capital investments which have correspondingly high period costs due to interest, principal payments, etc.
Dennis L
Do you know of many people that think things are awesome and this economy is not false? Most people I talk to know something big is coming on the down side. I get where you are coming from you are like warren buffet… you did all the right things and are living comfortable and you want that to be the same for your kids and grandchildren. Unfortunately facts aren’t in your adjustment. You can’t have infinite growth in a finite planet! And that’s what you need!
Like vax injuries… they try to ignore…
“Global problems may exacerbate shortages in North Korea’s isolated economy…
“The World Food Program estimated that even before the pandemic hit, 11 million people – or more than 40 percent of the population – were undernourished and required humanitarian assistance.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/global-problems-may-exacerbate-shortages-nkoreas-isolated-economy-2022-05-03/
“Threats by North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un that his nuclear arsenal could be used in a pre-emptive strike against his enemies, made as he paraded the country’s latest military hardware through the streets of capital Pyongyang, have set alarm bells ringing.
“The world can ill-afford another military confrontation at this time, say analysts.”
https://www.dw.com/en/could-north-korea-preemptively-use-nuclear-weapons/a-61661592
Plenty of grass and bark for them to eat
Let’s see with all the bad news reality stocks should rise!
They did, sure enough; your prognostications are very good.
No sarcasm, I am the optimist in the crowd. Bet the world is going to end and winning results in winning nothing, bet it will go on and maybe you win something, at worst you lose,
Dennis L.
I think Tommy Robinson will end up dead… remember that guy who used to make a living poking sharks and stuff… and then a sting ray stabbed him in the heart… Steve something …
Like that….
https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/35230
https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/35229
Steve Irwin, the crocodile hunter.
Sting Ray, the human hunter.
Hey mirror
And since everything in the economy depends upon the exergy derived from surplus energy, the result is growing shortages and rising prices across the economy… a situation, by the way, which cannot be resolved by raising interest rates.
hahaha yup! https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2022/05/02/the-sound-of-distant-violins/
Can’t have this right Mirror – don’t you think UEP (extermination) is the best choice for granny????
It is not just that the poor are going to go cold and hungry this winter or that some – particularly among the elderly – unable to afford external heat and lacking the calories to generate enough internally, are going to die of hypothermia. No Tory government – nor, truth be told, recent Labour ones – has been overly exercised about the hardships inflicted on the poor.
Presumably that is just you attempting to sublimate your cruelty into an apparently ‘caring, virtuous’ shape. It is likely just eccentric virtue-signalling.
Its ‘meaning’ is likely located more in your own psyche than anywhere else.
‘Look at how much I care, what a good person I am, let’s kill everyone!’
KISS… Fast Eddy is just trying to get a rise out of you hahahaha….
It is likely, as MM might say, your ‘psychological mechanisms’ in play, and I feel no massive impulse to juxtapose the activity of my own mechanisms to yours and to call it a ‘discussion’. lol
Ouch! Say ‘cheese’, Boris!
> Susanna Reid confronts Boris with days to go until local elections and asks about pensioner Elsie ‘who rides the bus ALL DAY because she can’t afford to heat her home’ … but all he can say is he gave her a free bus pass. (Some newspaper that I am not linking to right now).
Tess Talks with David Charalambous
Understanding the mess we’re in – and finding a way out
David, Reaching People’s founder, has 25 years of experience consulting with multinational clients and individuals from all walks of life. Reaching People analyses the elements involved in reaching people, from cognitive dissonance to storytelling.
In this Tess Talks, I had a fascinating discussion with David about the role of behavioural sciences in the state of the world. I learned so much about the barriers that have been put in place to ensure people like me are not being heard about ivermectin and vaccine harms. David also shares practical tips about how to talk to family and friends about what’s going on in a way that overcomes resistance and opens up genuine dialogue (remember that?). If you’ve been struggling to reach people in the propaganda-fuelled world we currently live in, this conversation is for you.
https://drtesslawrie.substack.com/p/tess-talks-with-david-charalambous?s=r
“Finland will decide to apply for NATO membership on May 12, Finnish newspaper Iltalehti reported late on Sunday, citing anonymous government sources. [Finland’s border with Russia is huge – approx 1,340 km].
“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has pushed Finland and Sweden to the verge of applying for NATO membership and abandoning a belief held for decades that peace was best kept by not publicly choosing sides.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finland-will-decide-apply-nato-membership-may-12-says-iltalehti-newspaper-2022-05-02/
“Finnish companies and the central administration are preparing for the eventuality that the flow of natural gas from Russia dries up in May, reports Helsingin Sanomat…
“Households that use gas for heating will be guaranteed access to gas with special measures, if necessary.”
https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/21465-hs-finland-preparing-for-possible-suspension-of-gas-deliveries-from-russia.html
“Finnish group abandons plans for Russia-backed nuclear power plant…
“The Hanhikivi 1 project was particularly controversial because Rosatom, the Russian state nuclear company, was not just the supplier of the reactor but also the main shareholder and financial backer of the Fennovoima consortium.”
https://www.ft.com/content/5e7730b5-be55-48a5-8f55-f67d6fb80d77
Finland choosing to join NATO sounds like a good way to spread the Ukraine conflict more widely.
Indeed!