Is the debt bubble supporting the world economy in danger of collapsing?

The years between 1981 and 2020 were very special years for the world economy because interest rates were generally falling:

Figure 1. Yields on 10-year and 3-month US Treasuries, in a chart made by the Federal Reserve of St. Louis, as of May 10, 2022.

In some sense, falling interest rates meant that debt was becoming increasingly affordable. The monthly out-of-pocket expense for a new $500,000 mortgage was falling lower and lower. Automobile payments for a new $30,000 vehicle could more easily be accommodated into a person’s budget. A business would find it more affordable to add $5,000,000 in new debt to open at an additional location. With these beneficial effects, it would be no surprise if a debt bubble were to form.

With an ever-lower cost of debt, the economy has had a hidden tailwind pushing it long between 1981 to 2020. Now that interest rates are again rising, the danger is that a substantial portion of this debt bubble may collapse. My concern is that the economy may be heading for an incredibly hard landing because of the inter-relationship between interest rates and energy prices (Figure 2), and the important role energy plays in powering the economy.

Figure 2. Chart showing the important role Quantitative Easing (QE) to lower interest rates plays in adjusting the level of “demand” (and thus the selling price) for oil. Lower interest rates make goods and services created with higher-priced oil more affordable. In addition to the items noted on the chart, US QE3 was discontinued in 2014, about the time of the 2014 oil price crash. Also, the debt bubble crash of 2008 seems to be the indirect result of the US raising short term interest rates (Figure 1) in the 2004 to 2007 period.

In this post, I will try to explain my concerns.

[1] Ever since civilization began, a combination of (a) energy consumption and (b) debt has been required to power the economy.

Under the laws of physics, energy is required to power the economy. This happens because it takes the “dissipation” of energy to perform any activity that contributes to GDP. The energy dissipated can be the food energy that a person eats, or it can be wood or coal or another material burned to provide energy. Sometimes the energy dissipated is in the form of electricity. Looking back, we can see the close relationship between total energy consumption and world total GDP.

Figure 3. World energy consumption for the period 1990 to 2020, based on energy data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy and world Purchasing Power Parity GDP in 2017 International Dollars, as published by the World Bank.

The need for debt or some other approach that acts as a funding mechanism for capital expenditures (sale of shares of stock, for example), comes from the fact that humans make investments that will not produce a return for many years. For example, ever since civilization began, people have been planting crops. In some cases, there is a delay of a few months before a crop is produced; in other cases, such as with fruit or nut trees, there can be a delay of years before the investment pays back. Even the purchase by an individual of a home or a vehicle is, in a sense, an investment that will offer a return over a period of years.

With all parts of the economy benefiting from the lower interest rates (except, perhaps, banks and others lending the funds, who are making less profit from the lower interest rates), it is easy to see why lower interest rates would tend to stimulate new investment and drive up demand for commodities.

Commodities are used in great quantity, but the supply available at any one time is tiny by comparison. A sudden increase in demand will tend to send the commodity price higher because the quantity of the commodity available will need to be rationed among more would-be purchasers. A sudden decrease in the demand for a commodity (for example, crude oil, or wheat) will tend to send prices lower. Therefore, we see the strange sharp corners in Figure 2 that seem to be related to changing debt levels and higher or lower interest rates.

[2] The current plan of central banks is to raise interest rates aggressively. My concern is that this approach will leave commodity prices too low for producers. They will be tempted to decrease or stop production.

Politicians are concerned about the price of food and fuel being too high for consumers. Lenders are concerned about interest rates being too low to properly compensate for the loss of value of their investments due to inflation. The plan, which is already being implemented in the United States, is to raise interest rates and to significantly reverse Quantitative Easing (QE). Some people call the latter Quantitative Tightening (QT).

The concern that I have is that aggressively raising interest rates and reversing QE will lead to commodity prices that are too low for producers. There are likely to be many other impacts as well, such as the following:

  • Lower energy supply, due to cutbacks in production and lack of new investment
  • Lower food supply, due to inadequate fertilizer and broken supply lines
  • Much defaulting of debt
  • Pension plans that reduce or stop payments because of debt-related problems
  • Falling prices of stock
  • Defaults on derivatives

[3] My analysis shows how important increased energy consumption has been to economic growth over the last 200 years. Energy consumption per capita has been growing during this entire period, except during times of serious economic distress.

Figure 4. World energy consumption from 1820-2010, based on data from Appendix A of Vaclav Smil’s Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects and BP Statistical Review of World Energy for 1965 and subsequent. Wind and solar energy are included in “Biofuels.”

Figure 4 shows the amazing growth in world energy consumption between 1820 and 2010. In the early part of the period, the energy used was mostly wood burned as fuel. In some parts of the world, animal dung was also used as fuel. Gradually, other fuels were added to the mix.

Figure 5. Estimated average annual increase in world energy consumption over 10-year periods using the data underlying Figure 4, plus similar additional data through 2020.

Figure 5 takes the same information shown in Figure 4 and calculates the average approximate annual increase in world energy consumption over 10-year periods. A person can see from this chart that the periods from 1951-1960 and from 1961-1970 were outliers on the high side. This was the time of rebuilding after World War II. Many families were able to own a car for the first time. The US highway interstate system was begun. Many pipelines and electricity transmission lines were built. This building continued into the 1971-1980 period.

Figure 6. Same chart as Figure 5, except that the portion of economic growth that was devoted to population growth is shown in blue at the bottom of each 10-year period. The amount of growth in energy consumption “left over” for improvement in the standard of living is shown in red.

Figure 6 displays the same information as Figure 5, except that each column is divided into two pieces. The lower (blue) portion represents the average annual growth in population during each period. The part left over at the top (in red) represents the growth in energy consumption that was available for increases in standard of living.

Figure 7. The same information displayed in Figure 6, displayed as an area chart. Blue areas represent average annual population growth percentages during these 10-year periods. The red area is determined by subtraction. It represents the amount of energy consumption growth that is “left over” for growth in the standard of living. Captions show distressing events during periods of low increases in the portion available to raise standards of living.

Figure 7 shows the same information as Figure 6, displayed as an area chart. I have also shown some of the distressing events that happened when growth in population was, in effect, taking up essentially all of energy consumption growth. The world economy could not grow normally. There was a tendency toward conflict. Unusual events would happen during these periods, including the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union and the restrictions associated with the COVID pandemic.

The economy is a self-organizing system that behaves strangely when there is not enough inexpensive energy of the right types available to the system. Wars tend to start. Layers of government may disappear. Strange lockdowns may occur, such as the current restrictions in China.

[4] The energy situation at the time of rising interest rates in the 1960 to 1980 period was very different from today.

If we define years with high inflation rates as those with inflation rates of 5% or higher, Figure 8 shows that the period with high US inflation rates included nearly all the years from 1969 through 1982. Using a 5% inflation cutoff, the year 2021 would not qualify as a high inflation rate year.

Figure 8. US inflation rates, based on Table 1.1.4 Price Index for Gross Domestic Product, published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

It is only when we look at annualized quarterly data that inflation rates start spiking to high levels. Inflation rates have been above 5% in each of the four quarters ended 2022-Q1. Trade problems related to the Ukraine Conflict have tended to add to price pressures recently.

Figure 9. US inflation rates, based on Table 1.1.4 Price Index for Gross Domestic Product, published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Underlying these price spikes are increases in the prices of many commodities. Some of this represents a bounce back from artificially low prices that began in late 2014, probably related to the discontinuation of US QE3 (See Figure 2). These prices were far too low for producers. Coal and natural gas prices have also needed to rise, as a result of depletion and prior low prices. Food prices are also rising rapidly, since food is grown and transported using considerable quantities of fossil fuels.

The main differences between that period leading up to 1980 and now are the following:

[a] The big problem in the 1970s was spiking crude oil prices. Now, our problems seem to be spiking crude oil, natural gas and coal prices. In fact, nuclear power may also be a problem because a significant portion of uranium processing is performed in Russia. Thus, we now seem to be verging on losing nearly all our energy supplies to conflict or high prices!

[b] In the 1970s, there were many solutions to the crude oil problem, which were easily implemented. Electricity production could be switched from crude oil to coal or nuclear, with little problem, apart from building the new infrastructure. US cars were very large and fuel inefficient in the early 1970s. These could be replaced with smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles that were already being manufactured in Europe and Japan. Home heating could be transferred to natural gas or propane, to save crude oil for places where energy density was really needed.

Today, we are told that a transition to green energy is a solution. Unfortunately, this is mostly wishful thinking. At best, a transition to green energy will need a huge investment of fossil fuels (which are increasingly unavailable) over a period of at least 30 to 50 years if it is to be successful. See my article, Limits to Green Energy Are Becoming Much Clearer. Vaclav Smil, in his book Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects, discusses the need for very long transitions because energy supply needs to match the devices using it. Furthermore, new energy types are generally only add-ons to other supply, not replacements for those supplies.

[c] The types of economic growth in (a) the 1960 to 1980 period and (b) the period since 2008 are very different. In the earlier of these periods (especially prior to 1973), it was easy to extract oil, coal and natural gas inexpensively. Inflation-adjusted oil prices of less than $20 per barrel were typical. An ever-increasing supply of this oil seemed to be available. New machines (created with fossil fuels) made workers increasingly efficient. The economy tended to “overheat” if interest rates were not repeatedly raised (Figure 1). While higher interest rates could be expected to slow the economy, this was of little concern because rapid growth seemed to be inevitable. The supply of finished goods and services made by the economy was growing rapidly, even with headwinds from the higher interest rates.

On the other hand, in the 2008 to 2020 period, economic growth is largely the result of financial manipulation. The system has been flooded with increasing amounts of debt at ever lower interest rates. By the time of the lockdowns of 2020, would-be workers were being paid for doing nothing. World production of finished goods and services declined in 2020, and it has had difficulty rising since. In the first quarter of 2022, the US economy contracted by -1.4%. If headwinds from higher interest rates and QT are added, the economic system is likely to encounter substantial debt defaults and increasing breakdowns of supply lines.

[5] Today’s spiking energy prices appear to be much more closely related to the problems of the 1913 to 1945 era than they are to the problems of the late 1970s.

Looking back at Figure 7, our current period is more like the period between the two world wars than the period in the 1970s that we often associate with high inflation. In both periods, the “red” portion of the chart (the portion I identify with rising standard of living), has pretty much disappeared. In both the 1913 to 1945 period and today, it is nearly all the energy supplies other than biofuels that are disappearing.

In the 1913 to 1945 period, the problem was coal. Mines were becoming increasingly depleted, but raising coal prices to pay for the higher cost of extracting coal from depleted mines tended to make the coal prohibitively expensive. Mine operators tried to reduce wages, but this was not a solution either. Fighting broke out among countries, almost certainly related to inadequate coal supplies. Countries wanted coal to supply to their citizens so that industry could continue, and so that citizens could continue heating their homes.

Figure 10. Slide prepared by Gail Tverberg showing peak coal estimates for the UK and for Germany.

As stated at the beginning of this section, today’s problem is that nearly all our energy supplies are becoming unaffordable. In some sense, wind and solar may look better, but this is because of mandates and subsidies. They are not suitable for operating the world economy within any reasonable time frame.

There are other parallels to the 1913 to 1945 period. One of the big problems of the 1930s was prices that would not rise high enough for farmers to make a profit. Oil prices in the United States were extraordinarily low then. BP 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy reports that the average oil price in 1931, in 2020 US$, was $11.08. This is the lowest inflation-adjusted price of any year back to 1865. Such a price was almost certainly too low for producers to make a profit. Low prices, relative to rising costs, have recently been problems for both farmers and oil producers.

Another major problem of the 1930s was huge income disparity. Wide income disparity is again an issue today, thanks to increased specialization. Competition with unskilled workers in low wage countries is also an issue.

It is important to note that the big problem of the 1930s was deflation rather than inflation, as the debt bubble started popping in 1929.

[6] If a person looks only at the outcome of raising interest rates in the 1960s to 1980 timeframe, it is easy to get a misleading idea of the impact of increased interest rates now.

If people look only at what happened in the 1980s, the longer-term impact of the spike in interest rates doesn’t seem too severe. The world economy was growing well before the interest rates were raised. After the peak in interest rates, the world economy generally continued to grow. As a result of the high oil prices and the spiking interest rates, the world hastened its transition to using a bit less crude oil per person.

Figure 11. Per capita crude oil production from 1973 through 2021. Crude oil amounts are from international statistics of the US Energy Information Administration. Population estimates are from UN 2019 population estimates. The low population growth projection from the UN data is used for 2021.

At the same time, the world economy was able to expand the use of other energy products, at least through 2018.

Figure 12. World per capita total energy supply based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. World per capita crude oil is based on international data of the EIA, together with UN 2019 population estimates. Note that crude oil data is through 2021, but total energy amounts are only through 2020.

Since 2019, our problem has been that the total energy supply has not been keeping up with the rising population. The cost of extraction of all kinds of oil, coal and natural gas keeps rising due to depletion, but the ability of customers to afford the higher prices of finished goods and services made with those energy products does not rise to match these higher costs. Energy prices probably would have spiked in 2020 if it were not for COVID-related restrictions. Production of oil, coal and natural gas has not been able to rise sufficiently after the lockdowns for economies to fully re-open. This is the primary reason for the recent spiking of energy prices.

Turning to inflation rates, the relationship between higher interest rates (Figure 1) and annual inflation rates (Figure 8) is surprisingly not very close. Inflation rates rose during the 1960 to 1973 period despite rising interest rates, mostly likely because of the rapid growth of the economy from an increased per-capita supply of inexpensive energy.

Figure 8 shows that inflation rates did not come down immediately after interest rates were raised to a high level in 1980, either. There was a decline in the inflation rate to 4% in 1983, but it was not until the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union in 1991 that inflation rates have tended to stay close to 2% per year.

[7] A more relevant recent example with respect to the expected impact of rising interest rates is the impact of the increase in US short-term interest rates in the 2004 to 2007 period. This led to the subprime debt collapse in the US, associated with the Great Recession of 2008-2009.

Looking back at Figure 1, one can see the effect of raising short-term interest rates in the 2004 to 2007 era. This eventually led to the Great Recession of 2008-2009. I wrote about this in my academic paper, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis, published in the journal Energy in 2010.

The situation we are facing today is much more severe than in 2008. The debt bubble is much larger. The shortage of energy products has spread beyond oil to coal and natural gas, as well. The idea of raising interest rates today is very much like going into the Great Depression and deciding to raise interest rates because bankers don’t feel like they are getting an adequate share of the goods and services produced by the economy. If there really aren’t enough goods and services for everyone, giving lenders a larger share of the total supply cannot work out well.

[8] The problems we are encountering have been hidden for many years by an outdated understanding of how the economy operates.

Because of the physics of the economy, it behaves very differently than most people assume. People almost invariably assume that all aspects of the economy can “stay together” regardless of whether there are shortages of energy or of other products. People also assume that shortages will be immediately become obvious through high prices, without realizing the huge role interest rates and debt levels play. People further assume that these spiking prices will somehow bring about greater supply, and the whole system will go on as before. Furthermore, they expect that whatever resources are in the ground, which we have the technical capability to extract, can be extracted.

It is important to note that prices are not necessarily a good indicator of shortages. Just as a fever can have many causes, high prices can have many causes.

The economy can only continue as long as all of its important parts continue. We cannot assume that reported reserves of anything can really be extracted, even if the reserves have been audited by a reliable auditor. What actually can be extracted depends on prices staying high enough to generate funds for additional investment as required. The amount that can be extracted also depends on the continuation of international supply lines providing goods such as steel pipe. The continued existence of governments that can keep order in the areas where extraction is to take place is important, as well.

What we should be most concerned about is a very rapidly shrinking economic system that cannot accommodate very many people. It seems that such a situation might occur if the debt bubble is popped and too many supply lines are broken. There may be a time lag between when interest rates are raised and when the adverse impacts on the economy are seen. This is a reason why central bankers should be very cautious about the increases in interest rates they make as well as QT. The situation may turn out much worse than planned!

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
This entry was posted in Energy policy, Financial Implications and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

4,216 Responses to Is the debt bubble supporting the world economy in danger of collapsing?

  1. Michael Le Merchant says:

    People misunderstand and assume that a planned depopulation would be a micromanaged type affair. You know, like you create the perfect killer virus and release it.

    But, in the real world, that isn’t how it was ever going to happen. If you’re at a dinner party, and the first person to eat the food starts coughing up blood, no one else eats.

    Instead, its more an exercise in influencing various factors through gradual manipulation (Think farming. The farmer knows if they plant a certain crop, in a certain soil, at a certain time of year, and does certain things, then other certain things are most likely to happen – but the farmer doesn’t micromanage each plant)

    As Geert himself noted in his latest interview (and others have commented over the past two years), if scientists had been tasked with taking an infectious but mild virus and turning it into a hyper infectious killer, in a lab, they would have done a smaller version of what has played out.

    Whether people understand this or not, the unavoidable fact now is that things are about to accelerate. The next major variant/s to hit us will be more contagious than Omicron AND more lethal – maybe much more lethal.

    I suspect this is what has already broken out in China, and explains the absolutely insane measures being taken in Shanghai, the lockdowns in Beijing, and the ‘unidentified fever’ in North Korea.

    With the developed countries of the west now heavily vaccinated, and air travel opening up again for summer (with record passenger numbers because people are so desperate for a break after two years of not travelling), when Devil Covid hits us, it will happen so fast, we’ll be blindsided.

    Almost makes you think its connected in some way to the rapidly approaching magnetosphere collapse, and ensuing end of industrialised agriculture…

    • Lastcall says:

      Magnetosphere collapse adds a new dimension to crypto if nothing else! Buy the dip?
      Any ‘easily read, succinct’ references?
      Been a while since I did any tertiary type studies, so keep it light :}

    • CTG says:

      MLM, thanks for your very good comment.

      We have to add in economic collapse, moral collapse, famine, shortages, etc.

      We have to ask “is it all planned?” I think probably not because I have ZERO hope that the elites are smart. They are actually very dumb if you have interacted with one super rich before

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:


        the Elites surely are a bunch of aging brain degrading brainfarting psyyyyyco woketard moreons.

        who are well educated in standard university economics and cluellless about the depths of energy based economics.

        stooooopid is as stooooopid does.

        their vast wealth makes them very dangerous.

    • We hope it doesn’t happen, but it may, I suppose. We will see.

    • Dining with the influencers. says:

      I think you misunderstand the role of the c-19 v i r us.
      I think b o terr orism is misunderstood for the same reasons.
      The causative agent’s role is not to change demographics directly.
      It is the reaction to the causative agent that they expect to change demographics.
      An adverse reaction to a small fire in a small crowded place will get more people hurt than the fire itself. For example, forced sterilization is not really necessary if there is a culture in place that encourages people to do that themselves.

  2. Sam says:

    It seems like the high interest rates will crash the housing markets. That will put us in a depression

  3. CTG says:

    *Read the second paragraph….

    OPEC Ministers Warn No Increase In Supply Is Coming Online

    According to OPEC, the oil markets are so askew at the moment that adding capacity would fail to materially stave off high prices.

    Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, has said there are “physical impediments that no producer can solve” at work right now in the oil market, according to the Financial Post/Bloomberg.

    The move shows OPEC posturing up at a time when U.S. lawmakers have been rushing to try and solve the problem of exploding gas prices. Bin Salman’s comments come at a time when exports out of Russia, a major player on the global oil and gas stage, have been disrupted.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      speaking of askew oil markets, WTI is now a dollar higher than Brent.

      • Sam says:

        Weren’t you the one bragging 4 months ago about low oil prices for the foreseeable future?

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, has said there are “physical impediments that no producer can solve” at work right now in the oil market, according to the Financial Post/Bloomberg.

      hahaha… the goose is cooked!!!

    • I am wondering if there is steel pipe available for drilling and piping oil where it needs to go. I know that producers of oil from shale talk about supply lines of basic items such as this being broken.

  4. CTG says:

    Davidinamillionyears, I know you are in the north east (Maine perhaps). So, you have a diesel shortage in USA and more critically, there are reports coming out that diesel may “imminently” be unobtainium in some pumps. That will only make things worse as people will hoard. It is kind of like telling the whole world that an asteroid will collide with earth next week and people start to panic.

    Diesel powers everything. Truck drivers may think that it is not a good idea to go to the east coast as they can get stuck (with the big trucks) without any diesel to come out. It is kind of a positive feedback with negative consequences. Positive feedback means it gets worse with large amplitude. Negative feedback means it gets attenuated.

    As far as I can see, there is no solution. I read somewhere that refineries in USA were retrofitted to process biodiesels. During lockdown, there was a huge reserve of diesel and ESG dictates that these “dirty” industries should be more earth friendly. So, they are now more geared to the wrong type of fuel and retrofitting back to normal diesel? Maybe no parts to do it? So, they are stuck

    Supplies are low and nothing is coming in from Russia or anywhere else in the world because Europe and everywhere else in the world is also in short supply and countries are also hoarding supplies (i.e. India has banned wheat export with immediate effect)

    Even if they decide to get oil from Russia and that takes time, do we have time?

    That means that the eastern seaboard of USA can turn Sri Lanka within weeks ??

    That is your collapse.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      dude! let’s see, it seems that USA diesel stocks are at a multi decade low, but it isn’t close to zero (yet).

      also, I think it was discussed here that the USA still exports some diesel to Europe(?) maybe.

      that’s crazzzzy!

      just a guess, but I’m guessing that exports will go to zero, and refineries will find more demand for diesel than jet fuel, so I think though not sure that diesel production can be increased slightly and exports will be reduced.

      otherwise, there are many rich people who live from NYC to Connecticut to Boston, and though I have no say in what’s coming, even if not publicly, I bet they will be yelling loud and clear to politicians and business connections IF or WHEN there are disruptions to deliveries of essentials.

      money talks.

      I bet there is still a vast amount of wealth up here in the northeast to do a lot of talking.

      we’ll see.

      the fridge is fairly full, don’t need heating fuel for about 5 months, and the electricity has been completely stable.

      I’ll end with a joke:

      I can see 2023 from my house.

      • The Beginning of the End says:

        We may(shall?) find out shortly that “wealth” can have a much more fluid definition than many think.

        I fear “mark to the market” might become the new “buzzword”, and with it, the horrors that only true price discovery can bring. What good is/are some pretty rocks, old paintings, fancy cars or shiny metal at the end of the day, really?

        Can they fill an empty fuel tank(and what happens to them when they no longer can)? Grow food? Heal the sick and infirm? Can the wealth tokens everyone has been told to collect as a sign of value survive as we descend into the Age of Less? Or are real energy and certain useful items the only true wealth, the rest a mirage? How long before those trinkets are discarded and safes become full of antibiotics, vitamins, formula. Fuel rationing? Price controls?

        Is it command economy time or are we still in the pre-game warmup routines?

        Is there a digital dollar waiting offstage, waiting for Collapse 1.0 to begin and a massive debt Jubilee and global economic debt reset to usher in a new age, an age when silly financial games are over and true energy becomes the currency of the land with derivatives and hedges thrown to the wayside like scattered children’s’ toys on the beach when a sudden storm hits? As we try to maintain in the whirlwind of collapse?

        Will people soon work and be paid in Kalories, with energy being the currency of the day. Work x hours for y calories, that can be redeemed for food or items worth a certain amount of …work? Since money and debt seem to just be tokens in one way or another for energy or energy products, will we try a system where energy is the currency? No more mindless commutes and 17 brands of toothpaste, everything boiled down to the most economical way of doing things and rewards are given based on efficient outcomes not branding? Or have we passed that stage already and are we just lemmings already at the cliffs edge with too many behind us to do anything but continue forward. Seems like we just might have enough time to find the answer to some of these issues.

      • nikoB says:

        Do you live at number 2021 Dave?


  5. CTG says:

    Thanks to Gail for the latest article. I have been banging on the same drum for the last decade and have posted the following at least 3 times since 2010 (I think)

    The best time to switch over to a new source of energy (whatever source) was the 1950-1960s when the peak of crude oil is about to reach. It cannot be done when the peak is in the rear view mirror.

    Debt was the substitute that homo sapiens picked in the 1970s. That is of course the easiest way. For those who are not clear, instead of using energy to extract oil, they use debt. A difficult to extract oil patch (geographically difficult to reach or too deep) can be solved by throwing a lot of money into it. Money is a proxy of future energy use (h/p Norman) and using money masks the fact that this oil is expensive to get.

    We manage to get away with it because we use USD and it is a reserve currency. USD can be printed at will and it is fully accepted worldwide. thus, we have a long period of prosperity. It was/is printed and accepted as something of value. In this case, an oil well that needs USD1m to drill is no different from a hole that needs USD100m to dig for oil because money is printed. Not enough, sure, it will be printed and given out (as loans). See the shale oil complex in USA as an example. It has more debts than any other sector (perhaps on debt/revenue basis).

    Theoretically, money can help even if the EROEI is less than one. That means that it is possible to spent USD100m to get oil that is worth USD10m. However, that violates the rules of common sense and perhaps thermodynamics (?)

    However, do note that at one critical threshold, debt will be counter productive. View it like graph that climbs, hits a peak and then slopes down. The slope can be a vertical slope.

    Debt requires a payback, with or without interest. Presently, debt is created without any consideration for the future. Debts are being piled up to buy cars, houses and many other things. At one point in future, the amount of debts will choke the borrower and there is money left for him to spend. At this point of time, no matter how cheap the stuff it, he cannot but it anymore.

    At this stage, 2022, even if Saudi Arabia finds a new oil patch where high grade oil literally oozes from the sand, there will be no or low demand because we are all choked with debts. I am always amazed with “experts” saying that fusion, nitrates, space satellites, will save us when we are just too full with debts.

    There will always be people buying things, those without debts, those who are cautious with money but that number is just too small to support the current system. The current system requires growth or it will self destruct. Debt-based economy is and has been that way since thousands of years ago.

    So, let us have a debt jubilee? Well, our system is so interconnected that it will fail immediately One man’s debt is another man’s assets…..

    • Fast Eddy says:

      I love the part when the Borg realizes it’s f789ed itself hahaha

    • Lots of things going wrong at once! It is hard to see a way out.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I’m contemplating what to do with Hoolio when we are on the verge of extermination – I imagine when DC hits being locked down looking at a dwindling supply of food — then it’s either starvation – or ram the Bat Mobile into the rocks…

        Load Hoolio into the back seat? Or let him loose to forage on rabbits? Probably better to load him into the back seat…

        Imagine if this was your job…

        I bet he’s got injection songs for kids… probably pays well

  6. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Thanks for the new article Gail!

    Dire situation for humanity:(

    Oat Futures:×4096

    Soybean Futures 2008 vs 2022:×4096

    • Prices perhaps topping out, for a while, at least.

      • MM says:

        Topping out means: buyers are exhausted.
        A debt money system needs new debtors every day.
        Debt level exhausted = Price rise exhausted.
        That is exactly what your article is about.

        Sometimes I wish you just put in a hint to the basic fraud of debt based money creation. But probably you want to stay focussed and not open other cans of worms. Pretty good shot Gail, Thank you.

        • Dining with the influencers. says:

          Many visitors to this esteemed blog work in finance.
          They would be offended if she made opinionated comments about their work. If she typed that they are all involved in fraud. Some would say that criticism of that nature is akin to prejudice.

  7. Hideaway says:

    Hi Gail, once again a great article outlining the real problems we are encountering.

    I just want to add a couple of points that is not understood anywhere, one at a time…

    Firstly raising interest rates to curb inflation doesn’t work in the early stages. Instead it increases inflation with the first few rises. Interest costs get added to businesses, so they duly increase prices as per modern accounting practices.
    We can go back to every recession over the last 40-60 years and see this is the case. Economists prefer to use the theory that the effect is a lagged one, instead of realising what actually happens in the real world.

    Interest rate rises ‘work’ when the increases eventually break the economy, along with the rising prices of everything especially ‘essentials’ (energy based). Real wages fall behind, especially for the bottom 60-80% of consumers so they cut a lot of discretionary spending, effecting those types of businesses.

    Raising interest rates to quell demand in a rising net energy economy worked with the economy recovering fairly quickly after mild recession, so economists that don’t understand the energy based system continue to use the same tactics in a declining net energy economy, yet get shocked at the outsized recession and lack of recovery compared to previous times.

    If rising interest rates do not slow inflation, but instead reduce supply of fracked oil, leading to lower overall production, it is possible the decline in net energy and therefore the price of essentials based on oil (nearly everything) will lead to much higher prices and a bigger recession/depression when the economy finally breaks.

    The biggest question is will mainstream economists eventually figure out their theories are not working before they send us into a premature energy limited depression?? Or will they continue to blame the poor, the unionists, immigrants and other countries, because it is not possible for their theory to be totally wrong??

    Sri Lanka is just another part of the periphery that is falling off the net energy cliff edge so that the central economies can continue, who’s next??

    • Thanks!

      That is an interesting point you make, “Firstly raising interest rates to curb inflation doesn’t work in the early stages. Instead it increases inflation with the first few rises. Interest costs get added to businesses, so they duly increase prices as per modern accounting practices.”

      I am doubtful that that mainstream economists will ever figure out the problem. They, and the politicians, will be busy trying to find scapegoats for the problems.

  8. Interesting article on Bernanke including a graph showing his time and Fed rates

    “It Was A Mistake” – Bernanke Says Fed’s Fear Of ‘Shocking’ The Market Delayed Tightening Move
    17 May 2022

    • Thanks for the link. According to the article,

      “The Taylor Rule suggests Fed Funds should be over 11%, not around 1%. ”

      Wow! These folks are out in never-never land. If the economy is shrinking, rather than growing, interest rate increases of this magnitude are way out of the question.

      • Sam says:

        How would the governments pay interest on their own debt?! The whole system seems like it is run by a kid with a monopoly board

  9. Slowly at first says:

    Thank you Gail as always for your prescient analysis of our predicament. So this is it I suppose. We are among the last humans who will ever have lived and of those, the very few who recognized the imminence of our extinction.

    • Humans lived through the ice ages. I imagine people some will make it through the current bottleneck.

      I am sure part of the “game” now becomes, “How does a person become one of the survivors?” “Are there some central areas that can continue for a while, while others have more problems?” “Are there things (like raising interest rates) that can help an area become one with quite a few survivors?”

      We don’t know how this all works out. There could even be a religious ending to this scenario that is completely outside of normal forecasting.

      • CTG says:

        FE will say “be the survivor” until the spent fuel ponds come to you…..

        • Fast Eddy says:

          I thought I’d try a different angle on that… but yes… nobody survives.

          Seriously – does anyone want to live in a world that is worse than that depicted in The Road?

          The horror one would go through before the survivors are declared would lead to epic PTSD …

          Let’s not forget all the disease that will rip through everyone… starvation diets are not ideal for maintaining health.

          UEP is going to wipe everyone out so not to worry… I am really hoping that all out nuclear explosions are part of the plan. Super cool … great way to eliminate stragglers

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Who wants to win the lottery? Winning looks like The Road. hahahahaha…

        A bottle Fentanyl for each winner … just in case they are disappointed with their main prize

    • Fast Eddy says:

      8 Billion Graves

      That’s a lot!

  10. Fast Eddy says:

    If this is not a matrix and Trump and Elon are not willing participants who are aware of the matrix…

    Then why don’t they organize a meeting to discuss launching a new social media app?

    And promise to invite all the banner Twatters onto it?

    Called it Trumpster. Half of America would immediately join….as would everyone else if they actually allowed free speech.

    Is it a money issue? A lot cheaper to do this than buy Twatter.

    Funny that nobody asks Musk why he doesn’t do this. Or Trump.

    Well not really — this would NOT be allowed.

  11. Fast Eddy says:

    BTW – being Canadian… I sometimes go to CTV news …. because I want to see what the PR Team is up to and monitor the propaganda. Notice how all the stories on Covid (and most everything) are the exact same — CTV CBC Global News etc….

    That’s cuz those stories come from the Ministry of Truth

  12. Fast Eddy says:

    So… a high powered lawyer mate ($1000+ per hour kinda guy)… pings me .. tells me North Korea is gonna be interesting cuz they have not vaxxed and they now have covid… (oh I see they are just now experiencing covid… okay… and they have a leader who shoots 18 for 18 holes)…

    I respond suggesting they will be fine – the countries who are not fine have high vax rates –

    He does me the honour of actually looking at that … and reverts with – but those excess deaths are not necessarily related to the injection …. Maybe not but then babies might not be made by shagging women… on the surface there is a strong correlation but it could be something else…

    I also mention that there are no excess deaths in low vax countries.

    On to another topic – long term side effects of the injections.

    He’s not concerned because there are seldom long term side effects of vaccines – most come with in the first few days…

    I reply with – that’s because all other vaccines are tested on small groups over many years — if few get injured or die – they bring the jab to the market …. so obviously there will be few if any long term bad effects…

    But with the Covid injections … there has been zero long term testing … the testing is being done on billions of people… who knows that will happen in a year… or in 5 years…

    No reply.

    $1000+ per hour…. Fast Eddy would charge $1,000,000 per hour… but he is not driven by something that will be worth 00000000000000 very soon

    • CTG says:

      In this part of the world, I mean, Asia, South East Asia and specifically Malaysia, people are so docile…

      Those who believe in vax or mask (there are some who did not take the jab but wears multiple masks), if magically, they disappear from earth, probably 99% of the people in my place (urban area – Penang) will be gone.

      Eventhough there is no rule for masking out in the open area, practically 95% are still wearing them.

      I see there is no way out and to the extent that I felt that I am in a game or simulation.

      I have already given up a long time ago on talking to others about the virus and anything that make sense. Common sense is never common since 2000 and it is now set to zero since COVID started.

      • nikoB says:

        I can see now why you really contemplate whether you are in a simulation. So much that defies logic. Stay well and sane CTG.

      • MM says:

        What simulator shoul have interest in 99% garbage data ?

        • CTG says:

          Not garbage data . Perhaps that is what is being simulated or the result of the simulation?

          Remember a long time ago, we asked people how on earth would we find energy to charge all the EVs? We get stupid answers or just silence. Are we seeing the same thing when we ask “how can C19 vaccines be safe?” Sane reaponse/reaction. So predictable.

          • MM says:

            ok, the simulator has not yet come across the fermi paradox and will to power and nuclear anihilation and so on and so on (even “pandemics” that even the LTG computer spit out already 50 years ago?)
            First run hypthesis would make sense of that. Otherwise: Same ole sh*t! What a boring Job.
            Maybe shuffle the punch cards again…

            • CTG says:

              Ah…I am not sure if you are familiar with simulations…. Computer simulations to be precise. I am involved in it. You use simulation to find solutions.

              What will happen to humanity if you reduce IQ by 20% What will happen to modern civilization if Trump won the 2020 presidency? What will happen if you have have a fake virus? What happens if you let humans create huge debt bubbles and let it implode?

              What happens if make humans gullible? Will the politicians take advantage of it? Will they wake up?

              See, those answers can only be answered if you run a simulation and tweak the parameters.

              Think hard… very very hard, especially those who have children – when you were younger and pregnant, do you take any medication? Why would any pregnant lady, foregoing alcohol but took the jab? What was in their brain? It is kind of “too du,mb”. Seriously, we have to be in a simulation where the sims are just sims, not humans. I can agree that people can be du;mb but that du.mb

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Electricity bill at the ice rink went up 20% YOY… same amount of power… 20% up.

            There is no free lunch – if enough people switch to EVs there needs to be billions of $$$ invested in the grid etc…. coal and gas prices go through the roof…

            Imagine the power bill in that scenario….

    • Student says:

      I think that North Korea is starting the ‘Covid plot’ because it is running out food…

  13. Fast Eddy says:

    6 of 9 people vaccinated in Palo Alto nursing home die within a week

    It’s very unlikely that this happened by chance. SOMETHING killed these people. I bet this isn’t the only Black Swan. Have you heard similar stories in other nursing homes

    Now THIS … is entertaining!!!

  14. Fast Eddy says:

    More PR prep for the Global Holodomor

    Forbes predicted the shortage “could last for months.”

    You can stock up … and lock yourself in your basement till the food runs out .. or until the ponds get you.

    • MM says:

      Isn’t Baby formular that stuff coming out from a parental chest ?
      The big question is: On what gender should we lift the shirt and have a look for it?
      Question must be left unanswered.

  15. Rodster says:

    NIH & The Corruption of Science by Chris Martenson

    “Today’s Tale of Corruption comes to us courtesy of Open The Books, a U.S. non-profit advocacy agency dedicated to tracking government expenditures.

    After being forced by the NIH to file a federal suit, Open The Books was able to determine that the NIH received over $350 million in kick-backs from pharma companies over the years.

    So, the model, such as it is, is that Fauci and the NIH distribute some $30 billion of taxpayer money to Big Pharma and then receive hundreds of millions from for-profit companies that then license some of the findings resulting from that money.

    And this is only the NIH. Presumably, university researchers similarly benefit from patent royalties developed using funds provided by U.S. taxpayers.”

  16. Fast Eddy says:

    Mood On Wall Street Has Never Been More Apocalyptic; Tech Short Is Biggest Since 2006

  17. India bans wheat exports as heatwave curbs output, prices soar
    14 May 2022

    India has banned wheat exports with immediate effect, just days after saying it was targeting record shipments this year, as a scorching heatwave curtailed output and local prices hit an all-time high amid strong export demand.

    A notice in the government gazette by the Directorate of Foreign Trade said a spike in global prices for wheat, partly due to the war in Ukraine, was threatening the food security of India and neighbouring and vulnerable countries.

    The government said it would still allow exports for letters of credit that have already been issued and on the request from countries that are trying “to meet their food security needs”.

    Prior to the ban, India was targeting to ship out a record 10 million tonnes this year.

    Global buyers were banking on the world’s second-biggest wheat producer for supplies after exports from the Black Sea region plunged following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    Before the war, Ukraine and Russia accounted for a third of global wheat and barley exports.

    That gives us an idea about what will happen when supplies of petroleum products (diesel most important) become scarce.

    3 May 2022
    Will the world ever reach peak crude production of November 2018 again?

    Gail, maybe your next article could be on deglobalization

  18. Fast Eddy says:

    TGP Warned for Years that China’s Economy Was Failing – This Is Now Evident to the World and It Will Greatly Impact the US

  19. Fast Eddy says:

    College Student Who Experienced Adverse Reaction Following Second Dose of Covid Vaccine Is Expelled for Refusing Booster Shot Despite Doctor Requested Exemption

    norm mike — does this not make you wonder if this is not about keeping people safe?

    Just a little….???

  20. Fast Eddy says:

    NYC Enters ‘High’ COVID Alert Level as Hospitalization Rate Tops Key Benchmark

  21. Fast Eddy says:

    You know what is extra good about being right about the CovCON?

    It’s that those who were wrong (and said things like the unvaxxed are low IQ and will be culled)… get to suffer and die … because they were wrong

    hahaha… now that is a fine price to pay… the ultimate price for being stoooopid

  22. Fast Eddy says:

    Our chimney sweep did not get back to us to schedule an appointment so I called another outfit yesterday … the operator is a young guy – maybe 30… looks to be in good shape… he says – I can’t get to you until mid June… I had a heart attack and had two weeks off….

    I called our other guy and his wife says — sorry for not getting back to you … we’ve had a very rough go with covid here … the boss had a severe case and has been off for two weeks…

    Both of these guys will be fully injected as they’d have to for work

    Is it jus me … or are the people coming down with severe covid — the ones who are injected…

    Take care norm mike… stay safe… keep boosting with the Effective (and safe) vaccines hahahaha

    • Brian says:

      I just had covid. I am 59 yr old male and fit for my age. I was also triple vaxxed. Covid was a walk in the park,

      • nikoB says:

        Good to hear.
        Are you planning to boost again or do you think having had it is enough now? Everyone is different but the effect of spike protein is likely to be cumulative so repeat exposures via virus or booster could be an issue t health and life expectancy.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        So you’ll be getting another booster?

        • Brian says:

          Kind of a loaded question. It depends on the situation on the ground. As things are now no. If at some point in the future a more virulent strain of Covid appears and It is in my best interests to boost I may. I would expect the boost to be more strain specific

          • Fast Eddy says:

            But the injections offer very short lived protection and wreck your immune system.

            Why wouldn’t you instead by Ivermectin? If I was jacked on the toxic useless Pfizer… and I realized it was offering no protection – I’d get a Family Size jug of IM.

            I am not a doctor therefore you should follow my advice

          • Replenish says:

            thanks for sharing Brian, glad you had a mild case of the virus.. Is to each their own, i suggest for your mental and physical safety to distance from unfamiliar people in Confined spaces like office work or elevators and individuals with viewpoints or lifestyles that may put you in danger,, especially if you are closer To a high Risk age group And trying to fit in or enjoy normal life without Stress, conscious of following the health guidelines,, Omicron specific boosters didn’t show much improvement in testing; waning efficacy/immune exhaustion from constant antibodies may be an issue to explore. daily vitamin D and a single dose of Quercetin + Zinc + Melatonin knocked out symptoms overnight for Mom and I as well as my triple-vaxxed girlfriend when I suggested she try it with sore throat, cough and headache for 1 day, positive Covid test.., peace/

          • Tim Groves says:

            One thing seems clear; at the start of “the pandemic” there was only one happy little strain called Alpha. Now there are perhaps half a dozen strains in the Omicron family, so creating a vaccine that targets them all is going to be impossible within a useful timeframe. By the time it’s brewed and put through the tea strainer, Omicron will have evolved into the Omega—Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds strain. So good luck inoculating against that.

          • Wet My Beak says:

            You discuss the situation on the ground. What was the situation up in the air?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        RNZ stats for the past 7 days show…

        51% of population boosted and 52% of hospitalisations boosted.

        Something is seriously wrong here

        Horrifying Data

        Fast Eddy prefers that his audience have the opportunity to make informed decisions

        • Sam says:

          I had it at the very beginning No vax… it was like a bad flu. Several months later exposed to many people with it ….. I had no symptoms. Blood test still show antibodies. Natural immunity is the way to go!

          • Fast Eddy says:

            You are going to quote the lie machine?

            You know – the lie machine that said this

            Brother … you are in serious trouble if you believe CTV ‘news’ hahahahaha….

            Let me slowly try to extract you from the matrix .. Igor is a good start

            Scan through the actual government data from all countries – CTV won’t show you this:


          • CTG says:

            Is Brian the new Mike?

            • Fast Eddy says:

              He’ll give himself away soon enough by telling us there is no harm in getting 16 boosters in a year hahaha

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, has said there are “physical impediments that no producer can solve” at work right now in the oil market

              This is kinda like a moment where the guy with the billion dollar yacht .. private jet … and harem of hotties… is told by the doctors … sorry mate — the cancer is terminal – there is nothing anyone can do….

              What? screams the rich man – I’m only 62 years old… I have many years to live — I deserve to live longer — because I am rich!!! I will pay anything … anything … here take my watch… take my grand child… hang on .. what if we drain the blood from the grand child and infuse it into me??? Surely that will work- Do IT!

              Sorry Mr Rich Man that won’t work – remember we tried it when we first detected the cancer.

              F789 F789 Sh67 Sh67 I p789 on all of you useless bastards… I DEMAND to be cured!!! I insist!!!

              Call the king’s horses and men – surely they can fix me!!!

              There’s nothing more we can do Mr Rich Man… when the pain is too much — here’s some Fentanyl… a handful of these and a bottle of wine will do the trick.

            • Student says:

              My impression is that the ‘propaganda office’ sometimes realizes that on ‘ourfiniteworld’ blog people are making dangerous conclusion..
              So they say:
              – ”hey, send someone over there to get them in order”

            • Foolish Fitz says:

              You are all being a bit hard on Brian, I think and despite the below, I will defend Brian’s choice, although I don’t believe Brian could possibly have given informed consent.

              Brian can I ask you to read the below quote and link. It’s from the UN and Shareverified(a behavioural change org that’s part of Purpose, which is a sister org of Avaaz. Nasty bunch all round).

              “The group who is most likely to purposefully choose to not vaccinate are highly educated. In speaking with them, these are people who have read the primary literature themselves, & they’re correctly interpreting it, so it’s not a misunderstanding.”


              “Correctly interpreting it, so it’s not a misunderstanding” really does ask an obvious question.
              Have you asked yourself why?

          • JesseJames says:

            Brian is the newest pro vax troll…probably funded by Pfizer.

      • Tim Groves says:

        Brian, you say you were triple vaxxed and yet you just had Covid.

        Or was it vaxxitis?

        If you caught the bug anyway, what was the point of getting vaxxed?

        And don’t tell us it would have been worse if you were unvaxxed. I’m unvaxxed and caught Covid and had no symptoms apart from a slightly diminished ability to leap tall buildings at a single bound.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          I had covid for two days…

          It would have been so much WORSE if I’d been vaxxed.

          Is it ok to say that in public?

          • Jarle says:

            > I had covid for two days…

            How do you know? Did the Tarot cards say so or was it the trusty PCR test?

        • Jarle says:

          > I’m unvaxxed and caught Covid …

          How do you know? The trusty PCR test?

        • Mike Roberts says:

          It’s about risk. Of course many people will have no or mild symptoms. Overall, here in NZ, about 3 times as many unvaccinated need hospital treatment for COVID as the boosted. And of course one can catch a virus despite being vaccinated against it. Again, it’s all about relative risk. It’s hard to understand how you can make those comments, Tim, with a straight face. Or perhaps you didn’t.

      • Jarle says:

        > I just had covid.

        How do you know?

        Oh yeah, the trusty PCT test …

  23. Fast Eddy says:

    hahahaha….More Boosters!!!

    We are seeing 4 troubling developments in the waves:

    1)the intervals between waves are shorter, so waves are more frequent

    2)the peaks are high

    3)subsequent peaks are higher than prior peaks shorter

    4)the downward slope is not coming back to baseline (where we would have seen herd immunity and the wave would be over); we are seeing plateauing on the downward side higher than earlier baseline and then a new wave

    This indicates that there is a high level of transmission and infectiousness remaining in the population after a wave and really suggests that the pandemic is NOT being allowed to petter out and BE OVER. This is due to the sub-optimal immune pressure being placed on the spike by the non-sterilizing vaccine, non-neutralizing antibodies that provoke tremendous selection pressure and the emergence of infectious variants. We are afraid that there is the potential for not only an infectious variant, but a more lethal one to emerge.

  24. Fast Eddy says:

    This was obviously always about as real as a Mars colony

  25. Rodster says:

    Honestly the debt bubble is all they’ve got. Even China and others resorted to piles of more debt to keep their eCONomies moving forward. Egon Von Greyerz founder of Matterhorn Asset Mgmt has called out the insanity by stating that the debt has grown exponentially the last few decades. As he sees it, the world is on the hook for over two quadrillion dollars when factoring in derivatives.

  26. Fast Eddy says:

    BTW – I recently called my health insurance broker and asked if I could get a discount on my annual health insurance rate because I am unvaxxed… the manager was a bit miffed initially but then I explained that I deserve to be treated like a non-smoker because being vaxxed is a high risk condition ….

    He checked with the underwriter (I have a lot of policies with this broker so they suck my dick like that)… and was told no go – also that they don’t have excess claims due to vax injuries…. I replied with – of course they don’t …. did you notice the honcho at the German company who said their claims from the vax were off the charts… was fired a couple of days later… (sent him the link to the story)

    I knew they’d not reduce the rates – the main goal was to taunt… it forced the manager to look at the injuries.. and that is … fun!

    Maybe governments are bailing these companies out in secret… both life and health insurers have to be getting clobbered

  27. JesseJames says:

    Great article Gail. We are getting close to major changes in our world. Famine and malnutrition will stalk the world this fall and winter.

    Here is an interesting fact. The average wind farm has 150 turbines. Each wind turbine requires 80 gallons of oil for lubrication, and this isn’t vegetable oil; this is a PAO synthetic oil based on crude… 12,000 gallons. Once a year, that oil must be replenished.

    The green economy is less and less green.

    • CTG says:

      The green economy is less and less green.

      JesseJames , I need to report you and you will be penalized for using your “brain”

      You are not supposed to disrupt the narrative.

  28. Fast Eddy says:

    We know a young couple who are Professional Vaxxers – who believe vax injuries are caused by stress — and are trying to conceive hahahahahaha would I warn them? Nope – who cares what happens … if the kid is unfortunate to survive and ends up with massive abnormalities I won’t give a single f789… I won’t say I told you so – cuz I didn’t… all I care about is no mandates and no restrictions on ME.

    Those have been dropped – there is ZERO upside to trying to convince people not to boost now… they can get a 100 shots for all I care… inject the kids… the babies.. MORE BOOSTERS! Hahahaha because that means MORE vax injury stories… and I do enjoy a good vax injury story!!!

  29. Fast Eddy says:

    Hey mike!!!!! Look what happens when you don’t include the numbers before the vaccines were in heavy use — to create a false impression that the uninjected are flooding the hospitals…

    RNZ stats for the past 7 days show…

    51% of population boosted and 52% of hospitalisations boosted.

    Something is seriously wrong here


    (note this is per 100,000 of each vaccination demographic so the population size of each vaccination status does not confound the numbers).

    UNVACCINATED 66 cases per 100,000

    ONE DOSE 75 cases per 100,000

    TWO DOSES 163 cases per 100,000

    BOOSTED 189 cases per 100,000


  30. Fast Eddy says:

    Oh… My… F789ing .. GAWD… this is huge

    Another attempt to blame vax injuries on covid hahaha

    Look what happened to norm after the 4th shot

  31. Fast Eddy says:

    Hey norm … did your grand child get into this data set?


    They can’t work out why but a senior Neonatal specialist in Scotland stresses that “it’s not the vaccine”

    This is pleasing (but maybe not for a woke CovIDIOT who has injected)

    • CTG says:

      They can’t work out why but a senior Neonatal specialist in Scotland stresses that “it’s not the vaccine”

      This very sentence says that it is the vaccine because it is always the opposite of what they do not want to say. Kind of lame way of doing things but then the sheep will lap it all up.

      How can they even know it is the vaccine ?

      I just watched an old Korean soap drama and at one scene, this guy went to a mental hospital and asked for a patient. The counter staff replied immediately saying there is no such patient. The main character replied “You have such a big hospital and you can tell me immediately that there is no such patient and you did not even check the computer to see if that patient is in this hospital”

      This is similar to the child saying that he did not eat the cookie but the mouth and the lips are filled with chocolate.

  32. Fast Eddy says:

    More Boosters for the MOREONS,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/


    Take a look it ‘it’

    “From California to Texas to Indiana, electric-grid operators are warning that power-generating capacity is struggling to keep up with demand, a gap that could lead to rolling blackouts during heat waves or other peak periods as soon as this year.”

    Does this actually exist? Because it should not exist … is there any video (kinda like Ukraine’s war)… has anyone seen things flying in and out – and what would fly into and out – and why? It claims to be off grid and electric… so it’s powered by solar panels? Imagine the weight of a flying mobile that was powered by batteries…

    How Covid Vaccines Cripple the Immune System | Part 2 of 5

  33. Fast Eddy says:

    THIS will be the Elders… if UEP fails

    But much worse… remember what tribe the Elders hail from … remember what has happened to them throughout history…. very very bad to be an Elder when BAU is gone… very bad indeed.


  34. Fast Eddy says:

    NOW READ THIS STORY … and realize why the Elders are exterminating everyone.

    Sri Lankan MP ‘beaten to death by angry mob’ during anti-government protests. A sitting Sri Lankan MP was beaten to death by anti-government protesters in a “horrific murder scene”, an eye-witness told the Telegraph, as the country’s new prime minister warned there is just one day’s worth of fuel left. An eye-witness confirmed Mr Athukorala was killed by an angry mob, describing “a horrific murder scene” play out as they were shopping for groceries.

    “I saw at a distance two people were running and one had a pistol in his hand, a large crowd was chasing them and the two were trying to get inside a cloth shop but I saw some of the crowd get hold of their collars and start beating them,” said Priyantha Gunasena, 49, a resident of Nittambuwa. “I heard people screaming with pain and around 40 minutes later the crowd dispersed and there were two people lying on the ground covered in blood and only wearing their underpants.”

    The Telegraph has seen photographs of the gruesome scene and the two bodies belonging to Mr Athukorala and his bodyguard. The two men were attacked after Mr Athukorala’s bodyguard had allegedly first opened fire on anti-government protesters, killing one person.

    Now do we see why the UEP …. Is a GOOD THING? Both for us… and for the Elders….

    How long would their body guards hang around when BAU is collapsed? Remember – they have families who will need their protection … f789 these old geezers… we are outta here…

  35. Fast Eddy says:

    Thanks for dropping the new article.

    Some business to take care of first :

    THIS … is why the Elders are exterminating you (41 homes of elites torched) (he gets skinned alive if the military doesn’t step in…)

    When BAU blows — there will be nowhere to hide for the Elders – watch No gas for cooking

    When BAU collapses… that horror show kicks off globally within days. Only MUCH worse. There will be 0 food – 0 aid. Nobody taking photos. There will be no electricity. No petrol. No medicine. No security. It is not hyperbole to suggest this would be Hell on Earth. UEP is the only good option. It is necessary.

  36. Jef Jelten says:

    Its all about the “per capita”. It will be going down exponentially from here on out. The reduction in per capita energy use will be regulated through economic collapse. Its happening now it just isn’t making headlines.

    Rationing is a big no no because you have to be at least a little fair about it. Better to blame it on the economy.

    So the answer to your question is Yes…slowly at first…then all at once!

    • Sam says:

      I hear talk that they might ration diesel fuel… but I believe that’s because there is shortages.

    • Scaring people into using less works better than rationing. Rationing is a huge headache. There may be other ways as well. Closing a lot of stations where fuel can be purchased would make it more difficult to purchase oil products.

  37. notabilia says:

    What’s a “strange lockdown” that an allegedly “self-organizing” system can lead to? The “current restrictions” in China are native to authoritarian rule, while the US and its satellites are in the exact opposite of a “strange lockdown,” with the loonies, incel politicians, sex offender Christians, and moron billionaires running amuck without restraint.
    Boy, it’s awfully nice here with Norman leading the parade and Fast Eddy off looking for deepfake evidence somewhere.

  38. the problem might be said to hinge on the need of politicians to stay in office at any cost.

    western, developed societies created democratic political systems, requiring votes from ordinary people to stay in office (as opposed to previous ‘systems’ which were largely self perpetuating among the aristocracy).

    This was the direct product of the industrial factory system and the industrial revolution of the 1700s

    votes from ‘the masses’ could be counted on, as long as some kind of prosperous ‘growth’ was seen to be happening.

    the name of the political faction didn’t matter much, as long as wages rose, and nice things could be bought.

    Then in 1969 the world passed peak oil discovery (note–not peak oil production)–this meant that the writing was on the wall for the ‘American way of Life’.

    The political answer to that was debt. Debt cloaked reality, (that industrialised society was destined to fail)
    Politicians repeated the lie that growth was forever. The fact was that debt was replacing growth and at an ever increasing rate. Nevertheless the lies bought votes—from Reagan to Trump.

    the majority of voters bought into it. They voted for the ‘growth liars’. Idiots kept their political seats and everyone pretended that growth was forever.

    But not everyone in government was/is stupid. They are fully aware that we do not live in a ‘money economy’ we live in an ‘energy economy’. It is a universal law of economics that a shortage of energy collapses money.

    oil is our ‘equity’….we are now in a state of negative equity pretending we can rebalance the books with debt. Which is why commodities (requiring energy to produce them) are slipping into short supply, while more debt is being created to cover up the growing cracks in the system.

    • Good points! Thanks!

    • Ed says:

      Norman, how long before the people see the system is dying?

      I guess in Srilanka they see.

      • i should have included sri lanka—they are part of our dress rehearsal

        • ssincoski says:

          The way things are going, I think we will see lots more ‘Sri Lanka’ type events around the world before summer even ends. From then on, it will only get worse. Europe better hope for a mild winter.

          Ed. Once people realize that everything they have been eating/consuming was produced last year, and they get a glimpse of what 2023 is going to look like, it will get ugly. Already brewing in places like Iran and Tunisia. Actually all of MENA. Egypt should be of interest to keep an eye on.

          I’m sure Harry will keep us updated.

  39. Sam says:

    What about this theory ? Could it be the system is more complex today? Maybe more resilient than the past?

    • I haven’t had time to listen to the whole hour discussion. These are a couple of thoughts, based on the first few minutes discussion.

      There is definitely a point for the US to try to corner as much of the resources that are available, as possible. Having a high US dollar might allow this to happen, and raising interest rates would likely contribute to having a high US dollar. Investments from around the world would be attracted to the US, and drained from other parts of the world. While the world economy as a whole would shrink back, perhaps the US economy (or parts of the US) could be less affected than other places, at least for some years.

      If there could be a happy ending for the US, this might be it. It is possible that this thought is behind the current increases in interest rates.

      Countering this is the tendency for the system to start coming apart as trading is done in other currencies.

      Another issue is the tendency for oil and other commodity prices to fall too low for producers.

      Maybe tomorrow I will get a chance to view more of the video. Thanks for posting it.

      • Sam says:

        Yes at the very end he starts admitting that at some point it will crash and maybe there will be some sort of reset. He does manage funds so I think they have to be somewhat positive. Sort of like Steven Kopits

  40. MG says:

    As I look around and see the depleting fields, turning from brown to yellow soil, when browsing the internet for fertilizers, I stumbled upon the Polish word for the fertilizer, which is “nawóz”. “Inherited from Proto-Slavic *navozъ.”

    The meaning of “nawóz” is “to bring something using a vehicle”.

    The word “fertilizer” is about “making the land fertile”. But the word “nawóz” describes the need for energy to bring something to the field in order to grow crops. Like the rivers that brought such fertilizers to the first civilizations on the banks of the rivers

    As we ramped up the food production, we started to bring to the fields only the chemical elements like N, P and K. Recently also microelements, as the soil depletes. But bringing the C (carbon) to the soil became uneconomical, as the soil needs high amounts of the C from manure or other organic matter, which can be transported only using vehicles, although very simple like a wheelbarrow.

    When the energy becomes unaffordable and the population is ageing, there is no one to bring the C to the soil. And the agriculture is finished.

    That is why we see the farming without the soil as the proposed solution: no need for a lot of energy for bringing the C to the soil.

    But scaling this approach to crops like wheat or corn etc. is impossible.

    • Well, Poland had a chance to remain an oil producing country when they seized the Galician oilfields , awarded by Woodrow Wilson.

      The poles managed to destroy the fields in less than 10 years

    • Good points! Food is the most important product for our world population. Our ability to keep soils adequately fertile is disappearing.

    • Alan Kirk says:

      Most soils don’t lack minerals, but rather lack abundant soil life to mine and deliver those minerals and other nutrients to the plants. The habitat of soil microbes is soil structure which is damaged by the compaction and tilling with the plow, removal of crop residues, and by leaving fields bare for months at a time. Repair the soil and the nutrients will come.

  41. TaxDonkey says:

    As we proceed with constricted energy, some of our best and brightest minds have absolutely insane strategies for the future. For example, John Deere tractors are coming out, some of which have 100,000 pound batteries! Even a normal EV battery has something like 90 lbs copper, 60 lbs nickel, 30 lbs cobalt, 25 lbs Lithium and so on. I can’t even imagine what the metal content is in a 100,000 lb battery. How do you charge these things? Certainly not the outlet next to the coffeepot.

    Other contraptions are connected to power cords almost 2 miles long.

    • These heavy devices compact the soil, making it useless for farming. They cannot work from that point of view, either.

      But people get promotions and bonuses for thinking of these ideas.

    • Lastcall says:

      Where are they going to plug into?

      ‘Getting America to reach the goals of zero-carbon electricity generation by 2035 and net-zero economy by 2050 with a surge in electric vehicle transportation and renewable power installations will require massive investments in outdated power transmission lines and building thousands of miles of new lines. The undertaking is huge, and it’s so huge not only because the price tag for making the U.S. grid capable of handling a net-zero economy is estimated at a couple of trillion dollars’

      We have the same green Marxists running the crazy show in NZ.
      No coal from 2030; but that is what has been powering the EV fleet.
      We will be eating insects after all!

      • Ed says:

        I am feeling lazy today so I will just throw some numbers

        I’d say for the US alone 20 trillion dollars to be net zero electric by 2035 and another 20 trillion dollars to be net zero by 2050.

        Since the money would be used to buy real physical stuff it can not just be printed it must represent real capabilities in the physical world “real money”. Not clear to me how much “real money” the fed can bring to bare. What the fed can do is shift priorities from on sector to another sector. Fine for the favored sector kiss of death for the unfavored sectors.

        • don’t lose sight of the fact that money is nothing more than a token of energy.

          so correlations with $trillions, are in fact correlations with the available energy base available to humankind (as a species) over the time available.

          that defines ‘real money’ in ‘real time’. It isn’t possible for $trillions to exist, without the necessary energy to underpin it, despite the pronouncements of politicians and economists.`

          The necessary energy is not available

          so planning outwards towards 2035 or 2050 cannot be done in $ terms, or any other currency unless energy and money are in balance, or more accurately, the ‘economy’ is weighted towards surplus energy availability.

          Unfortunately, between now and 2035 or 50— units of currency will buy constantly diminishing amounts of energy.
          That is the reality we cannot change. Our time of surplus is over.

          to repeat—We haven’t run out of oil—–Our time of surplus is over.

          Spending $trillions isn’t going to bring back that energy surplus, because we don’t have $trillions in energy credit.

          Nevertheless, we are being led into the Alice in Wonderland fantasy that : ‘less is more’, and spending non existent money (ie printing it) will sustain BAU and take us on to the future of 2050 that we have been told exists.

        • TaxDonkey says:

          There’s no way the current circus can continue with renewables, even if they print 100 trillion bucks. The amount of copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium and etc…. that would have to be mined (using diesel powered excavators) would be astronomical. Even with a superhuman effort, I don’t see how EV could possibly replace the core of the global economy (e.g, planes, cargo ships, 18-wheelers and heavy machinery).

    • Fast Eddy says:

      This is like the Mars colonies… it’s all PR… aimed at convincing the MOREONS that we are transitioning off fossil fuels

      There is PR that suggests airplanes will also be battery powered soon. And the MOREONS believe that too.

      Hey norm – how about a battery powered space ship to take people to the moon?

      Have I mentioned that someone told me they’d like to buy an EV and charge it with a solar panel… he actually believes you can hook a panel directly to an EV battery and charge it hahaha.. even if you could it would take forever and a day….

      People will believe anything….they are afflicted with Dunce Kruger Syndrome

    • MM says:

      Old style tractors can be used with
      It can be grown and I think in EROEI you may have quite a surplus still from your fields if you grow the rapeseed there.
      It might be pretty difficult without fertilizers. A sort of help is crop rotation.
      I think you can do it because after 4 Billion years of vegitation on this planet not all soils are depleted. The question is just how efficient that will be. Probably not enough for 8 Bln but feasible. Restore your soil now, learn orgnic soil management and build a small RME cooperative for me looks like a good strategy.
      Will this work out?…..
      All of this is contrary to “consumer behaviour of farmers vs agri business” and thus will never be promoted.

  42. Lastcall says:

    ‘…..because bankers don’t feel like they are getting an adequate share of the goods and services produced by the economy.’

    Thats a more confronting thought than the promoted view that they are guardians of the economy with a steadying hand on the helm.

    • ursel doran says:

      The Federal Reserve has ONLY One mandate, that is to insure the profits of the member banks that own it. The other mandates , Financial Stability and full employment are Pablum hokum B.S. for the propaganda of the masses.

      • This explains the interest in raising interest rates quickly.

        • ursel doran says:

          I neglected to mention that the big banks are NOT just banks anymore, but are hedge funds trading in their SEC approved Dark Pool trading accounts.

          Glass Stegall law was put in place to stop them trading after the crash of 29.
          The old head of Citi bank, Sandy Weill boasted a long time ago that hew spent $200 Million over two years bribing the congress critters to get it repealed, under Slick Willie Clinton, the President.
          Would he have done that without KNOWING that he had Slick willie in his pocket for the critical signature on the bill?

  43. Dana L Cote says:

    Thanks for your thoughtful analysis of our current situation. We seem to be carreening through an historic event that will highlite how well we had lived in post wr world and how fast it can degenerate in a short period of time.

    • In some ways, it would be nice if I am wrong. Like everyone else, I would like to see the economy continue. We are truly dealing with an unprecedented situation.

      • HappyMotorist says:

        Sri Lanka seems to be the canary in the coal mine.

        • I agree. Island countries in general will have a difficult time, I expect, because of the need for oil to transport everything to their countries.

          • TaxDonkey says:

            The middle east will be a nightmare I fear. They don’t have enough water for all the people over there. They have to export oil to import food/water. Interestingly, I read that most of the middle east countries actually import a huge percentage of their natural gas for some reason, along with importing like 90% of their food. In many cases, they need the natural gas for electricity.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Not any worse than where I am or you are … when the power goes off. And there is no food.

              Sri Lanka is experiencing 15 hour blackouts + no petrol… they ain’t hanging on street corners signing Koombaya and thumping tambourines….

              They beat an MP to death the other day…. the VP had to be rescued from his burning mansion by the military … or he gets skinned alive

      • Ed says:

        unprecedented situation

        How long until the politicians and news analysts wake up?

        • I am afraid, forever. There will be some official explanation which is basically nonsense. It will say that we are intentionally moving into a new temporary situation, and everything will soon be much better. No one will really understand the problem.

          • MM says:

            Where did you get that from ?
            “There will be some official explanation which is basically nonsense.”

          • Z says:

            I think that is a very apt description of what will happen….

        • Jarle says:

          > How long until the politicians and news analysts wake up?

          Logically many politicians are awake but they love being politicians and jump every possible distraction helping them to keep their “job”.

    • woodchuck says:

      I have one last bucket list trip planned to Iceland at the end of June. Right now I am not sure we are going to last that long.

      • Ed says:

        They do a lunch time performance a vocalist accompanied by piano worthwhile for the show and for the tour of the opera house.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Japan is opening to 4 countries … NZ is not one of them … only triple vaxxed permitted…

        That was the only country I was keen on that is a single long haul flight… so looks like the bucket list … has ended.

        Just waiting for the fat super snatch susie to sing. (say that 10x quickly to win a free double booster shot of pfizer… no mumbling allowed norm)

        • CTG says:

          Japan is opening to 4 countries … NZ is not one of them … only triple vaxxed permitted…

          hey… I thought Japan said that there should not be any discrimination between the vax and unvaxxed?

          Tim… what happened ??

  44. ursel doran says:

    THANKS much for the SUPERB analysis as usual.
    What do you think about this OPEC delivery falling off?

    Hard to believe that this is intentional to not sell the oil when it is over $100???
    Water floods watering out??

    • This is what OPEC has to say about its recent oil production:×514.png

      It certainly is not increasing by very much in recent months.

      Saudi Arabia’s oil production was down in 2021 relative to 2020, but it seems to be back up over 10 million barrels a day in 2022. At this higher level, it doesn’t seem to be able to keep increasing. I remember hearing that, with the higher oil prices, Saudi Arabia would increase its investment in production, somewhat.

      Libya’s production seems to go up and down. For now, it is down.

      Nigeria is past peak, so we can’t expect much from it.

      Maybe someone else has more insight regarding what is happening in OPEC.

      • ursel doran says:

        Looks like that article was bogus. Thanks as always for your good works.

        I was in the oil business in Denver decades ago and owned some production in Wyoming.
        When Dan Yergin’s book, “The Prize came out I gobbled it up.

        Was watching the news from the Saudis when Gawhar was put on water flood decades ago.
        When the Kuwait wells were blown up by Saddam the world got to see how shallow high pressure wells could still blow out after producing for a long time.

        The mental midget idiot fools like Biden and the other ignorant morons who actually believe the “Green new Deal”, Are beyond dangerous. He screamed on camera to some kiddies at a rally,
        “Look in my eyes. I promise you we are going to eliminate hydrocarbons!”
        Shutting down the Canuck pipeline and begging OPEC to pump more to get the price of gas down, is of course, certifiable lunatic insanity.

  45. In a utilitarian sense, it is better for smaller and weaker countries to suffer and the bigger and stronger countries prosper.

    The world is reaching economic singularity, with everything concentrated in the largest few companies, with nothing for the rest.

    And that is the better setup for reaching a type I civilization

    The rights of smaller groups, smaller tribes, smaller factions have to be ignored since we don’t have the time to address such minor issues when singularity is just around the corner.

    • Artleads says:

      Silly, and could only be the work of a troll or a bot.

      • Counterargument?

        • Ed says:

          still need a factor of 10,000 to reach type I. we are no where near that, As to good or bad right or wrong it depends who you are the small and weak see favoring the small as good and just. Likewise the big see favoring the big as good and just. just noise.

    • John Muller says:


    • Ed says:

      An AI that thinks it self to infinite wealth is as impossible as the Fed printing itself to infinite wealth. Sorry not a believer in the singularity.

    • I don’t know to what extent the trend toward concentration of wealth will continue. Logically, this is the direction we should expect the economy to trend. Survival will go to a small group of the “best adapted.” I suppose the best adapted might be the biggest and strongest.

      • Artleads says:

        Sometimes the best adapted might be those who have lacked the privileges of the biggest and strongest and have therefore already worked out better survival strategies than they.

  46. If the debt bubble dies, the face eating monsters Fast Eddy had talked about will have their field day.

  47. Marco Bruciati says:

    Coal in Asia today costo more than 400 dollar ton again

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