Is the debt bubble supporting the world economy in danger of collapsing?

The years between 1981 and 2020 were very special years for the world economy because interest rates were generally falling:

Figure 1. Yields on 10-year and 3-month US Treasuries, in a chart made by the Federal Reserve of St. Louis, as of May 10, 2022.

In some sense, falling interest rates meant that debt was becoming increasingly affordable. The monthly out-of-pocket expense for a new $500,000 mortgage was falling lower and lower. Automobile payments for a new $30,000 vehicle could more easily be accommodated into a person’s budget. A business would find it more affordable to add $5,000,000 in new debt to open at an additional location. With these beneficial effects, it would be no surprise if a debt bubble were to form.

With an ever-lower cost of debt, the economy has had a hidden tailwind pushing it long between 1981 to 2020. Now that interest rates are again rising, the danger is that a substantial portion of this debt bubble may collapse. My concern is that the economy may be heading for an incredibly hard landing because of the inter-relationship between interest rates and energy prices (Figure 2), and the important role energy plays in powering the economy.

Figure 2. Chart showing the important role Quantitative Easing (QE) to lower interest rates plays in adjusting the level of “demand” (and thus the selling price) for oil. Lower interest rates make goods and services created with higher-priced oil more affordable. In addition to the items noted on the chart, US QE3 was discontinued in 2014, about the time of the 2014 oil price crash. Also, the debt bubble crash of 2008 seems to be the indirect result of the US raising short term interest rates (Figure 1) in the 2004 to 2007 period.

In this post, I will try to explain my concerns.

[1] Ever since civilization began, a combination of (a) energy consumption and (b) debt has been required to power the economy.

Under the laws of physics, energy is required to power the economy. This happens because it takes the “dissipation” of energy to perform any activity that contributes to GDP. The energy dissipated can be the food energy that a person eats, or it can be wood or coal or another material burned to provide energy. Sometimes the energy dissipated is in the form of electricity. Looking back, we can see the close relationship between total energy consumption and world total GDP.

Figure 3. World energy consumption for the period 1990 to 2020, based on energy data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy and world Purchasing Power Parity GDP in 2017 International Dollars, as published by the World Bank.

The need for debt or some other approach that acts as a funding mechanism for capital expenditures (sale of shares of stock, for example), comes from the fact that humans make investments that will not produce a return for many years. For example, ever since civilization began, people have been planting crops. In some cases, there is a delay of a few months before a crop is produced; in other cases, such as with fruit or nut trees, there can be a delay of years before the investment pays back. Even the purchase by an individual of a home or a vehicle is, in a sense, an investment that will offer a return over a period of years.

With all parts of the economy benefiting from the lower interest rates (except, perhaps, banks and others lending the funds, who are making less profit from the lower interest rates), it is easy to see why lower interest rates would tend to stimulate new investment and drive up demand for commodities.

Commodities are used in great quantity, but the supply available at any one time is tiny by comparison. A sudden increase in demand will tend to send the commodity price higher because the quantity of the commodity available will need to be rationed among more would-be purchasers. A sudden decrease in the demand for a commodity (for example, crude oil, or wheat) will tend to send prices lower. Therefore, we see the strange sharp corners in Figure 2 that seem to be related to changing debt levels and higher or lower interest rates.

[2] The current plan of central banks is to raise interest rates aggressively. My concern is that this approach will leave commodity prices too low for producers. They will be tempted to decrease or stop production.

Politicians are concerned about the price of food and fuel being too high for consumers. Lenders are concerned about interest rates being too low to properly compensate for the loss of value of their investments due to inflation. The plan, which is already being implemented in the United States, is to raise interest rates and to significantly reverse Quantitative Easing (QE). Some people call the latter Quantitative Tightening (QT).

The concern that I have is that aggressively raising interest rates and reversing QE will lead to commodity prices that are too low for producers. There are likely to be many other impacts as well, such as the following:

  • Lower energy supply, due to cutbacks in production and lack of new investment
  • Lower food supply, due to inadequate fertilizer and broken supply lines
  • Much defaulting of debt
  • Pension plans that reduce or stop payments because of debt-related problems
  • Falling prices of stock
  • Defaults on derivatives

[3] My analysis shows how important increased energy consumption has been to economic growth over the last 200 years. Energy consumption per capita has been growing during this entire period, except during times of serious economic distress.

Figure 4. World energy consumption from 1820-2010, based on data from Appendix A of Vaclav Smil’s Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects and BP Statistical Review of World Energy for 1965 and subsequent. Wind and solar energy are included in “Biofuels.”

Figure 4 shows the amazing growth in world energy consumption between 1820 and 2010. In the early part of the period, the energy used was mostly wood burned as fuel. In some parts of the world, animal dung was also used as fuel. Gradually, other fuels were added to the mix.

Figure 5. Estimated average annual increase in world energy consumption over 10-year periods using the data underlying Figure 4, plus similar additional data through 2020.

Figure 5 takes the same information shown in Figure 4 and calculates the average approximate annual increase in world energy consumption over 10-year periods. A person can see from this chart that the periods from 1951-1960 and from 1961-1970 were outliers on the high side. This was the time of rebuilding after World War II. Many families were able to own a car for the first time. The US highway interstate system was begun. Many pipelines and electricity transmission lines were built. This building continued into the 1971-1980 period.

Figure 6. Same chart as Figure 5, except that the portion of economic growth that was devoted to population growth is shown in blue at the bottom of each 10-year period. The amount of growth in energy consumption “left over” for improvement in the standard of living is shown in red.

Figure 6 displays the same information as Figure 5, except that each column is divided into two pieces. The lower (blue) portion represents the average annual growth in population during each period. The part left over at the top (in red) represents the growth in energy consumption that was available for increases in standard of living.

Figure 7. The same information displayed in Figure 6, displayed as an area chart. Blue areas represent average annual population growth percentages during these 10-year periods. The red area is determined by subtraction. It represents the amount of energy consumption growth that is “left over” for growth in the standard of living. Captions show distressing events during periods of low increases in the portion available to raise standards of living.

Figure 7 shows the same information as Figure 6, displayed as an area chart. I have also shown some of the distressing events that happened when growth in population was, in effect, taking up essentially all of energy consumption growth. The world economy could not grow normally. There was a tendency toward conflict. Unusual events would happen during these periods, including the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union and the restrictions associated with the COVID pandemic.

The economy is a self-organizing system that behaves strangely when there is not enough inexpensive energy of the right types available to the system. Wars tend to start. Layers of government may disappear. Strange lockdowns may occur, such as the current restrictions in China.

[4] The energy situation at the time of rising interest rates in the 1960 to 1980 period was very different from today.

If we define years with high inflation rates as those with inflation rates of 5% or higher, Figure 8 shows that the period with high US inflation rates included nearly all the years from 1969 through 1982. Using a 5% inflation cutoff, the year 2021 would not qualify as a high inflation rate year.

Figure 8. US inflation rates, based on Table 1.1.4 Price Index for Gross Domestic Product, published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

It is only when we look at annualized quarterly data that inflation rates start spiking to high levels. Inflation rates have been above 5% in each of the four quarters ended 2022-Q1. Trade problems related to the Ukraine Conflict have tended to add to price pressures recently.

Figure 9. US inflation rates, based on Table 1.1.4 Price Index for Gross Domestic Product, published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Underlying these price spikes are increases in the prices of many commodities. Some of this represents a bounce back from artificially low prices that began in late 2014, probably related to the discontinuation of US QE3 (See Figure 2). These prices were far too low for producers. Coal and natural gas prices have also needed to rise, as a result of depletion and prior low prices. Food prices are also rising rapidly, since food is grown and transported using considerable quantities of fossil fuels.

The main differences between that period leading up to 1980 and now are the following:

[a] The big problem in the 1970s was spiking crude oil prices. Now, our problems seem to be spiking crude oil, natural gas and coal prices. In fact, nuclear power may also be a problem because a significant portion of uranium processing is performed in Russia. Thus, we now seem to be verging on losing nearly all our energy supplies to conflict or high prices!

[b] In the 1970s, there were many solutions to the crude oil problem, which were easily implemented. Electricity production could be switched from crude oil to coal or nuclear, with little problem, apart from building the new infrastructure. US cars were very large and fuel inefficient in the early 1970s. These could be replaced with smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles that were already being manufactured in Europe and Japan. Home heating could be transferred to natural gas or propane, to save crude oil for places where energy density was really needed.

Today, we are told that a transition to green energy is a solution. Unfortunately, this is mostly wishful thinking. At best, a transition to green energy will need a huge investment of fossil fuels (which are increasingly unavailable) over a period of at least 30 to 50 years if it is to be successful. See my article, Limits to Green Energy Are Becoming Much Clearer. Vaclav Smil, in his book Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects, discusses the need for very long transitions because energy supply needs to match the devices using it. Furthermore, new energy types are generally only add-ons to other supply, not replacements for those supplies.

[c] The types of economic growth in (a) the 1960 to 1980 period and (b) the period since 2008 are very different. In the earlier of these periods (especially prior to 1973), it was easy to extract oil, coal and natural gas inexpensively. Inflation-adjusted oil prices of less than $20 per barrel were typical. An ever-increasing supply of this oil seemed to be available. New machines (created with fossil fuels) made workers increasingly efficient. The economy tended to “overheat” if interest rates were not repeatedly raised (Figure 1). While higher interest rates could be expected to slow the economy, this was of little concern because rapid growth seemed to be inevitable. The supply of finished goods and services made by the economy was growing rapidly, even with headwinds from the higher interest rates.

On the other hand, in the 2008 to 2020 period, economic growth is largely the result of financial manipulation. The system has been flooded with increasing amounts of debt at ever lower interest rates. By the time of the lockdowns of 2020, would-be workers were being paid for doing nothing. World production of finished goods and services declined in 2020, and it has had difficulty rising since. In the first quarter of 2022, the US economy contracted by -1.4%. If headwinds from higher interest rates and QT are added, the economic system is likely to encounter substantial debt defaults and increasing breakdowns of supply lines.

[5] Today’s spiking energy prices appear to be much more closely related to the problems of the 1913 to 1945 era than they are to the problems of the late 1970s.

Looking back at Figure 7, our current period is more like the period between the two world wars than the period in the 1970s that we often associate with high inflation. In both periods, the “red” portion of the chart (the portion I identify with rising standard of living), has pretty much disappeared. In both the 1913 to 1945 period and today, it is nearly all the energy supplies other than biofuels that are disappearing.

In the 1913 to 1945 period, the problem was coal. Mines were becoming increasingly depleted, but raising coal prices to pay for the higher cost of extracting coal from depleted mines tended to make the coal prohibitively expensive. Mine operators tried to reduce wages, but this was not a solution either. Fighting broke out among countries, almost certainly related to inadequate coal supplies. Countries wanted coal to supply to their citizens so that industry could continue, and so that citizens could continue heating their homes.

Figure 10. Slide prepared by Gail Tverberg showing peak coal estimates for the UK and for Germany.

As stated at the beginning of this section, today’s problem is that nearly all our energy supplies are becoming unaffordable. In some sense, wind and solar may look better, but this is because of mandates and subsidies. They are not suitable for operating the world economy within any reasonable time frame.

There are other parallels to the 1913 to 1945 period. One of the big problems of the 1930s was prices that would not rise high enough for farmers to make a profit. Oil prices in the United States were extraordinarily low then. BP 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy reports that the average oil price in 1931, in 2020 US$, was $11.08. This is the lowest inflation-adjusted price of any year back to 1865. Such a price was almost certainly too low for producers to make a profit. Low prices, relative to rising costs, have recently been problems for both farmers and oil producers.

Another major problem of the 1930s was huge income disparity. Wide income disparity is again an issue today, thanks to increased specialization. Competition with unskilled workers in low wage countries is also an issue.

It is important to note that the big problem of the 1930s was deflation rather than inflation, as the debt bubble started popping in 1929.

[6] If a person looks only at the outcome of raising interest rates in the 1960s to 1980 timeframe, it is easy to get a misleading idea of the impact of increased interest rates now.

If people look only at what happened in the 1980s, the longer-term impact of the spike in interest rates doesn’t seem too severe. The world economy was growing well before the interest rates were raised. After the peak in interest rates, the world economy generally continued to grow. As a result of the high oil prices and the spiking interest rates, the world hastened its transition to using a bit less crude oil per person.

Figure 11. Per capita crude oil production from 1973 through 2021. Crude oil amounts are from international statistics of the US Energy Information Administration. Population estimates are from UN 2019 population estimates. The low population growth projection from the UN data is used for 2021.

At the same time, the world economy was able to expand the use of other energy products, at least through 2018.

Figure 12. World per capita total energy supply based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. World per capita crude oil is based on international data of the EIA, together with UN 2019 population estimates. Note that crude oil data is through 2021, but total energy amounts are only through 2020.

Since 2019, our problem has been that the total energy supply has not been keeping up with the rising population. The cost of extraction of all kinds of oil, coal and natural gas keeps rising due to depletion, but the ability of customers to afford the higher prices of finished goods and services made with those energy products does not rise to match these higher costs. Energy prices probably would have spiked in 2020 if it were not for COVID-related restrictions. Production of oil, coal and natural gas has not been able to rise sufficiently after the lockdowns for economies to fully re-open. This is the primary reason for the recent spiking of energy prices.

Turning to inflation rates, the relationship between higher interest rates (Figure 1) and annual inflation rates (Figure 8) is surprisingly not very close. Inflation rates rose during the 1960 to 1973 period despite rising interest rates, mostly likely because of the rapid growth of the economy from an increased per-capita supply of inexpensive energy.

Figure 8 shows that inflation rates did not come down immediately after interest rates were raised to a high level in 1980, either. There was a decline in the inflation rate to 4% in 1983, but it was not until the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union in 1991 that inflation rates have tended to stay close to 2% per year.

[7] A more relevant recent example with respect to the expected impact of rising interest rates is the impact of the increase in US short-term interest rates in the 2004 to 2007 period. This led to the subprime debt collapse in the US, associated with the Great Recession of 2008-2009.

Looking back at Figure 1, one can see the effect of raising short-term interest rates in the 2004 to 2007 era. This eventually led to the Great Recession of 2008-2009. I wrote about this in my academic paper, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis, published in the journal Energy in 2010.

The situation we are facing today is much more severe than in 2008. The debt bubble is much larger. The shortage of energy products has spread beyond oil to coal and natural gas, as well. The idea of raising interest rates today is very much like going into the Great Depression and deciding to raise interest rates because bankers don’t feel like they are getting an adequate share of the goods and services produced by the economy. If there really aren’t enough goods and services for everyone, giving lenders a larger share of the total supply cannot work out well.

[8] The problems we are encountering have been hidden for many years by an outdated understanding of how the economy operates.

Because of the physics of the economy, it behaves very differently than most people assume. People almost invariably assume that all aspects of the economy can “stay together” regardless of whether there are shortages of energy or of other products. People also assume that shortages will be immediately become obvious through high prices, without realizing the huge role interest rates and debt levels play. People further assume that these spiking prices will somehow bring about greater supply, and the whole system will go on as before. Furthermore, they expect that whatever resources are in the ground, which we have the technical capability to extract, can be extracted.

It is important to note that prices are not necessarily a good indicator of shortages. Just as a fever can have many causes, high prices can have many causes.

The economy can only continue as long as all of its important parts continue. We cannot assume that reported reserves of anything can really be extracted, even if the reserves have been audited by a reliable auditor. What actually can be extracted depends on prices staying high enough to generate funds for additional investment as required. The amount that can be extracted also depends on the continuation of international supply lines providing goods such as steel pipe. The continued existence of governments that can keep order in the areas where extraction is to take place is important, as well.

What we should be most concerned about is a very rapidly shrinking economic system that cannot accommodate very many people. It seems that such a situation might occur if the debt bubble is popped and too many supply lines are broken. There may be a time lag between when interest rates are raised and when the adverse impacts on the economy are seen. This is a reason why central bankers should be very cautious about the increases in interest rates they make as well as QT. The situation may turn out much worse than planned!

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
This entry was posted in Energy policy, Financial Implications and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

4,216 Responses to Is the debt bubble supporting the world economy in danger of collapsing?

  1. Pingback: SENECA ENERGY CLIFF: The Collapse Of Debt Bubble & Palisades Radio Chat Live On Twitter – SRSrocco Report

  2. davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    no running on empty, the tank is still nearly full.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/18/oil-markets-china-covid-lockdown-oil-supply.html

    high prices, low prices, who really cares?

    “… refiners ramped up output in response to tight product inventories and near-record exports that have forced diesel and gasoline prices to record levels in the United States.

    Capacity use on both the East Coast and Gulf Coast was above 95%, putting those refineries close to their highest possible running rates.

    “While on the face of it, the report was extraordinarily bullish, they (refiners) are racing to put more refined product on the market… there’s obviously a refiners response,”

    Refiners! wooooooo!!!!!!! burn baby burn!

    high prices, low prices, it doesn’t matter much as long as the supply is still there.

    the pumps at the gas/diesel stations are still pumping.

    PumpAU tonight, baby!

    Refiners!

    🙂

  3. Fast Eddy says:

    More Data Fuckery by Health Canada
    They’ve Found 600 of the Missing 8600 Deaths

    https://sheldonyakiwchuk.substack.com/p/more-data-fuckery-by-health-canada

  4. Fast Eddy says:

    Like Bill Gates, He Has No Medical Training: “Tedros Is Basically a Communist Thug”

    Dr. Peter Breggin: “He covered up originally for the Wuhan Institute, saying this was not released from the Wuhan Institute, agreeing with China that it wasn’t very dangerous, and [allowed China to send] out fleets of airplanes, as a part of normal passenger traffic, from Wuhan and Beijing and other places nonstop to the US. And several hundred thousand passengers were sent out right at the time that COVID-19 was really bursting over China. It was intentionally done.”

    @VigilantFox | Rumble (https://rumble.com/v158pnn-like-bill-gates-he-has-no-medical-training-tedros-is-basically-a-communist-.html) | Full Video (https://www.redvoicemedia.com/video/2022/05/the-deliberate-destruction-of-the-united-states-to-install-a-one-world-government-dr-peter-breggin-joins-arthur-moore-video-interview/)

    Perfect for the job! A communist MOREON… low IQ… dunce… f789boy… probably doesn’t have a clue what he’s involved in so long as the money goes into the offshore account… typical socialist

  5. Fast Eddy says:

    Into the abyss we go https://t.me/VigilantFox/4501

  6. Fast Eddy says:

    It’s rather amusing to watch the leaders of the opposition to the CovCON rant about the WEF… and how we are being chipped and turned into robot and all that…

    Completely oblivious to the fact that we are running out of cheap energy and on the verge of total economic collapse because if it.

    Now we know why Peak Oil has been ridiculed over the years… people want options – they want solar energy – and EVs – and fusion – and now they want anything but total collapse – they grasp ant the most ridiculous theories…

    Anything but total collapse (ABTC)….

    They’ll take a Siberian gulag over total collapse … because with the gulag there is still life… there is still hope….

    Total collapse = extinction (but first some really heavy suffering).

    They will never accept UEP … for similar reasons

  7. Fast Eddy says:

    Forget Protests: If They Establish Their Control Grid, They’ll Wait You Out to Starve

    Dr. Mike Yeadon: (http://t.me/robinmg) “Just imagine the people running this and leading to a grid, [a] total control system of movements, choices, and spending. What happens if they actually did want to reduce the population once you’ve got your entire life controlled by these mechanisms? Forget protests. What happens if, as I believe, you’ll need your vax pass to get food, which you pretty much do already in certain countries. Good luck if you want to protest it; they’ll just wait you out to starve. So we’ve got to stop the control grid, because I think we can survive anything else, but we can’t survive that.”

    @VigilantFox | Rumble (https://rumble.com/v152nkq-forget-protests-once-they-establish-their-control-grid-theyll-wait-you-out-.html) | Full Video (https://www.redvoicemedia.com/video/2022/05/averting-the-great-reset-and-the-technocratic-nightmare-dr-mike-yeadon-joins-catherine-austin-fitts-video-interview/)

    All part of the UEP – starvation comes right after Devil Covid

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      UK lifted all covid restrictions months ago. Everyone has basically forgotten about it and moved on with their lives. Is it still an issue in NZ?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Most are lifted here… they are trying to encourage mutations.

        Plus they no longer serve their purpose – they already convinced most of the MOREONS to inject…

        • Mirror on the wall says:

          Restrictions are to encourage vaxes, and the lifting of restrictions is to encourage mutations? What happens then, all NZ dies of Devil covid?

        • Student says:

          I guess that in NZ they are insisting because they are not approaching summer, but winter.
          And, at the same time, it is interesting to see that on the other part of the emisphere (therefore us) MSM is not telling that in NZ and Australia are insiting like that because MSM wants us to forget it for a while.

  8. Fast Eddy says:

    hahahaha… let’s glorify obesity! Let’s also destroy the foundations of society so that the hordes are so confused that they’ll do anything that is asked of them… More Boosters.

    They may even welcome extinction if life becomes too f789ed up to be worth living

    I wonder what her BP is – and if she shoots insulin….

    To each their own but I see a Disgusting Pig who has zero control over herself…

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/jordan-peterson-sparks-outrage-after-declaring-sports-illustrated-model-not-beautiful/

  9. Fast Eddy says:

    Black man Caught on Video Beating Elderly White Nursing Home Patients ARRESTED After Hero Tom Fitton from Judicial Watch Alerts Authorities; the question is why? why would this person do this?

    To a helpless old man? And now we have word a 2nd video he filmed beating an elderly old woman in the home. Why?

    https://palexander.substack.com/p/man-caught-on-video-beating-elderly

    Imagine what they would do with the Elders when the body guards walk away…..

    • Rodster says:

      In America the US Government has made race baiting their top priority. It’s all about “hate whitey”. Do a search on Al Sharpton who at one time called himself Rev Al Sharpton. He become a US Congressman and a TV celebrity as well as hosting his own political show.

      His claim to fame was race baiting around the Tawana Brawley scandal. These are the people inciting race baiting. So it spills over but it’s perfectly okay if a black man beats the total crap out of a white man. It’s totally different if it is reversed. The Gubmint and the Media will ignore violence by the BLM but are on the watch for white supremacy.

      • banned says:

        Practice love and compassion and good will towards all races and sexual preferences amongst consenting adults. If you find yourself angry STOP. You are being pulled into their game.

      • Kim says:

        13/52. Shhh!

  10. Fast Eddy says:

    Monkeypox spreads UK, Spain, Portugal, US!

    https://hiddencomplexity.substack.com/p/monkeypox-spreads-uk-spain-portugal

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      it’s gonna mutate any day now, more contagious and more severe!

      the Devil Pox is coming!

      we’re doomed.

      I laugh in the face of death.

      hahahahaha.

    • Kim says:

      13 Monkeys pox.

  11. Fast Eddy says:

    Alyssa2 hr ago
    Bless you for all you are doing. You are a world hero. Our friend in WA state is a nurse and volunteered to work in NY in the heat of plandemic. She was there for months and what she witnessed was horrific. Black patients refusing her care because she is white. Black NURSES REFUSING TO CARE FOR WHITE PATIENTS who were screaming from their rooms because they could not breathe. She would report for her shift and approach the nursing station and find the nurses on their phones, playing games. When she asked how long the patients had been yelling from their rooms they would simply shrug their shoulders. She would run to their sides. 💔 What we are seeing is the absolute worst of humanity. I feel this is worse than war on the battlefield because we see men, women, and children with complete disregard for human life. Where has compassion and love gone? My heart and soul aches. When will the pain end?

    https://palexander.substack.com/p/nurse-ex-soldier-in-xx-state-lower/comments?s=r

    Let’s put this in perspective… https://www.rt.com/usa/538654-fauci-experiments-beagle-freedom-project/

  12. Fast Eddy says:

    from the neck up was their face fixed up for the tablet viewing by family, but under the covers, neck down, pure feces in mounds and maggots…no one touched them or changed them or tended to them, left to die. She will share what she saw and taped and it is horrendous what was done to our people and how terrible they were treated in hospitals. Stand by…I will be discussing. I know she has shared content already for her own safety. What you will see defies any human explanation and will ravage you. It will horrify you. You would not think hospitals and human beings would treat others like this.

  13. Fast Eddy says:

    Seems like a not very pleasant way to die…

    Nurse, ex-soldier, in XX State (lower US state) hospital, video-taped COVID response & treatment in hospital; showed how remdesivir killed & ventilators; share videos of…
    patients with ventilator tubes fused to their skin, no one would change it or fix it, left to rot, patients filmed on tablets saying good bye to family but from neck down covered, under covers…

    https://palexander.substack.com/p/nurse-ex-soldier-in-xx-state-lower

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Hilarious .. never occurred to him that the vax caused this hahaha

      He’ll be boosting his kid no doubt – hopefully the next shot finishes the job

      BTW – I spoke to a doctor recently who has been mandated out for refusing the injections … we were discussing heart issues due to viruses… he says it can happen but it is extremely rare…

  14. Fast Eddy says:

    NY Times Is Grooming You for Covid Reinfections Forever Every 3-4 Months
    Whatever happened to the magic jabs?

    https://live2fightanotherday.substack.com/p/ny-times-is-grooming-you-for-covid

  15. Michael Le Merchant says:

    When comedy writes itself

    Mom undergoes emergency surgery after swallowing COVID test

    It got cotton her throat.

    A UK mother feared for her life after accidentally swallowing a COVID-19 test throat swab — which ended up traveling all the way down toward her intestines.

    “It was really scary . . . It could have ended up fatal,” Bobby Lee, 31, told South West News Service of the stomach-churning case.

    The mother of one had opted to take an at-home COVID-19 rapid test after feeling sick following a night shift, but when she tried to swab her throat, the implement wouldn’t come out.

    “When I swabbed the back of my throat, I sort of gagged,” the petrified parent described. “The stick twanged in my mouth and got stuck at the back of my throat, with the swab down my throat and the end stuck in the roof of my mouth at the back.
    https://nypost.com/2022/05/17/mom-undergoes-emergency-surgery-after-swallowing-covid-test/

  16. Michael Le Merchant says:

    CISCO set off the crash in 2000. Wouldn’t it be ironic to see that happen again…

    CISCO SEES 4Q REV -1% TO -5.5% Y/Y; EST. +5.7%

    Cisco stock plunges as company forecasts surprising revenue decline
    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/18/cisco-csco-earnings-q3-2022.html

  17. Rodster says:

    “Running On Empty” by JMG https://www.ecosophia.net/running-on-empty/

    Conclusion: “ One more detail. This isn’t going to last forever; energy crises never do. My working guess at this point is that the US and Europe are facing a decade or so of economic crisis and soaring energy costs before demand destruction, sharp increases in energy efficiency, and a modest helping of new technologies bring renewed stability in energy markets. Mind you, by then we’ll have other things to worry about. I’ll discuss those in the posts ahead.”

    • clickkid says:

      ” This isn’t going to last forever; energy crises never do.”

      Which period of time did JMG study as the basis for this statement?

      How large was the sample size?

      • Rodster says:

        Quite puzzling, that comment was. Even more so the comment regarding “a modest helping of new technologies” when he has repeatedly stated including in that article that there is NO substitute for fossil fuels. I would like a tease as to what those “new technologies might be?

        So do technological superstitions really exist? He has been on record to say they don’t but now “they could”? https://thearchdruidreport-archive.200605.xyz/2014/09/technological-superstitions.html

        • I think he has a temperamental Goldilocks sort of need to invent a middle course whether one should exist or not.

        • ‘new technology’ is the throwaway line from people who have nothing else to offer. JMG is one of them

          cheap energy allowed us to have technology

          technology cannot, and will never produce cheap energy.

          without cheap surplus energy, our current mode of existence is over.

          there will be no ‘breakthroughs.’—just love that word.

    • its true the energy crises have never lasted forever—but that has been in our past

      in that past there has always been a fresh energy resource to get hold of–another coal oil or gas field and the means to make use of them

      we pulled ourselves out of energy crises by expending more energy

      now we’ve used up all our resources of cheap surplus energy

      so there won’t be any means by which we can do it again

      • Rodster says:

        It’s a good article in that it shows we’ve pissed away cheap affordable energy. Heck, when you are shipping lemons to Florida from places like Chile, that’s not the best way to manage your energy resources that are not infinite.

        Unfortunately, I just left with the impression that he was trying to play all sides of the issue. The one thing I do agree with him is the speed of collapse. Collapse tends to happen more organically. Some places may feel the full brunt first and others will ride the chaotic wave for some time. Collapse tends to be a process not an event and it takes time. Rome did not collapse in 24 hours from start to finish. It was in the making for numerous decades of poor management.

        • CTG says:

          We are so interconnected in many ways that it could collapse every country in a short order. If shortages of FF cause problems in USA North East which leads to riots , then the collapse of NYC will trigger collapse everywhere.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Once a single key country goes in the direction of Sri Lanka… the world will follow very quickly — the financial system is the key… and the trigger.

        • absolutely true

          things are not going to collapse all at once, but i do think collapse events will occur closer together as our future unfolds

    • I don’t really believe this:

      “My working guess at this point is that the US and Europe are facing a decade or so of economic crisis and soaring energy costs before demand destruction, sharp increases in energy efficiency, and a modest helping of new technologies bring renewed stability in energy markets.”

      • Rodster says:

        The “modest helping of new technologies” when he has repeatedly said that FF’s is it for IC. He even wrote an article on technological superstitions which I linked which backs that up and now he’s talking about new technologies saving the day, confused by his take.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        He’s in Wizard World… a land of magic… ask him to grant you a wish

    • Fast Eddy says:

      he’s the guy in the wizard outfit right?

    • Slowly at first says:

      As Professor Fast Eddy has reiterated on more than one occasion, the Druids are generally not considered the paragons of critical thinking.

  18. Mirror on the wall says:

    Hello Gail, thank you for another insightful and to the point article. It is lazy, balmy weather here in the UK, trees and bushes are blossoming and fragrant in the evening air, and I find it difficult to concentrate much on any matters.

    Things are looking pretty dire on the economic and fiscal front here, which very much chimes with your analysis, although no one seems to take energy seriously. The Bank of England is talking about a ‘deliberate recession’ to get prices under control. Their main objective is to keep interest rates low, and they are willing to sacrifice jobs and businesses to do that. I doubt that odd move will fix things.

    I will offer you this stark, current headline, and I hope to get the brain in gear in coming days. Thanks.

    > ‘The warning lights are flashing red’: Britain teeters on the brink of recession after inflation soars to 40-YEAR high with ‘apocalyptic’ food costs looming – as Rishi says he WILL cut taxes in Autumn Budget… but for businesses

    Rishi Sunak will give a hint at his plans for the Autumn Budget in a speech to the CBI this evening, hours after it emerged the headline CPI rate rose to 9 per cent in April. That was up from 7 per cent in March and a peak since 1982, when Margaret Thatcher was PM, the Falklands War was about to start, and unemployment was running at three million.

    The Bank of England expects the annual rate will get even worse, peaking at 10.25 per cent during the final quarter of the year amid the biggest squeeze on incomes since records began in the 1950s. Experts said ‘this is what Stagflation looks like’, while ministers were urged to recognise that the ‘warning lights are flashing red’ with the UK economy teetering towards recession after the pandemic and Ukraine war.

    Analysts said another interest rate hike next month is now ‘inevitable’, potentially to 1.25 per cent, as the Bank of England scrambles to stop prices spiralling out of control. But the Pound still dipped further against the US dollar as investors priced in the increasingly grim situation.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10829281/Boris-dodges-demands-windfall-tax-inflation-soars-40-YEAR-high.html

    Spiked has a somewhat desperate appraisal today of the situation, although still no real focus on the global energy situation. They think that the situation is objectively fixable and that the problem is political. (Humans often need a narrative in which things are fixable, even if they are not fixed, and otherwise the world itself seems too ‘thorny’ for mollycoddled modern sensibilities.)

    They link to articles in the FT and the Telegraph, which will show more of what is presently being said in the UK. They are behind paywalls but the free ‘Bypass Paywalls’ extension in Chrome will get you through, and everyone presumably has it installed like 100s of millions of others.

    > The slump of the century

    Every day brings a new grim economic milestone, but the UK government is still in denial.

    Another day, another grim economic milestone. Today the UK’s consumer price index (CPI) reached nine per cent, its highest figure in the index’s history, pointing to the highest rate of inflation in 40 years. And we have not even reached the worst yet. The Bank of England is expecting double-digit inflation just around the corner.

    This follows the biggest energy shock since the 1970s OPEC oil crisis. The average household energy bill soared by more than 50 per cent in April. In October, it could jump by another third to £2,600. Soaring prices combined with sluggish wage growth have produced the tightest squeeze on living standards since the 1950s. And while we no longer have state-imposed rationing as we did then, everyday life is becoming increasingly unaffordable, especially for those most hard-up. According to NatWest, the bottom fifth of households will need to cut their discretionary spending by almost 20 per cent if they want to absorb rising food and energy costs without taking on more debt.

    And if all of that weren’t painful enough, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey warned earlier this week of the potentially ‘apocalyptic’ trends in food prices. A UK recession by the end of the year is not just a possibility – it may also be a necessity according to some at the Bank of England. Bailey heavily implied that central bankers would be prepared to engineer a downturn in order to get runaway prices under control. Soon there will be a global shortage of superlatives to convey the depth of the slump we find ourselves in….

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/05/18/the-slump-of-the-century/

    • neil says:

      The UK has had a debt fuelled bubble economy since the mid 1990s. Housing is unaffordable. It is widely recognised as some of the poorest quality and most expensive in Europe. House prices are now 8-10x average income. It requires two full time jobs to keep afloat. Now that employment for both men and women is at a maximum, where will the income come from to fuel further price rises? It won’t, as I think household incomes have hit the maximum.

      Non-discretionary food is up 30%+, car fuel 40%+, gas & electricity is nearly double, eating out 25%+. These price increases alone translate to several hundred pounds a month extra in costs, enough to absorb the income from a modest part time job. This is even before service sector companies inevitably start to pass on increasing costs and interest rate increases starts to bite.

    • Thanks for the information about the UK situation. I definitely agree with “Humans often need a narrative in which things are fixable, even if they are not fixed, and otherwise the world itself seems too ‘thorny’ for mollycoddled modern sensibilities.”

      It is hard to see the UK coming out well in this situation.

  19. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    For MG the SLOVAK

    Last week, a suburb discussion was sparked on Twitter after a Slovakian Reddit user watched a video about these confusing American neighborhoods then reached out to the Urban Planning subreddit to get some answers. Below, you can read the questions that were raised about US suburbs, as well as some responses to the queries from other Twitter users. Then we’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments down below: have you ever lived in an American suburb or are they a bizarre foreign concept to you too?

    This urban planner sparked an interesting discussion on Twitter after finding the following questions about American suburbs posed by a confused Slovakian on Reddit

    American suburbs are a strange and fascinating concept. While they’re not a monolith, many of them do seem like inefficient uses of space and resources. Perhaps, over time, urban planners can learn a thing or two from countries like Slovakia and shift communities away from being so car dependent and focus more on quality of life. Let us know in the comments what your neighborhood is like in your country and if you think you could ever live in an American suburb!

    https://www.boredpanda.com/slovakian-asks-questions-about-us-suburbs/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=organic

    Go to the link..God Bless America

  20. Ian says:

    IRAN: Digital Food Rationing rolls out using Biometric IDs amid food riots

    https://odysee.com/@iceagefarmer:42/iran-digital-food-rationing-rolls-out

    • Sounds concerning. Digital anything doesn’t work very well, for a lot of people, I am afraid. I have never gotten the fingerprint approach to opening my cell phone to work, on any phone I have had, for example.

    • as far as i understand it, the digital ID is being put in place to distribute food at subsidised price to people on low income

      food itself is not being ‘rationed’

      this prevents food getting onto the black market

      it does not appear to be a ‘plot’ to record everyone in some way

      • Rodster says:

        “it does not appear to be a ‘plot’ to record everyone in some way”

        But that’s how governments work. They introduce things into society only to expand on it to their benefit for control. The TSA after 9-11 came across as innocuous and birthed itself 20 years later into mandatory testing and Covid vaccinations in the US. I was vehemently opposed to the TSA and have never boarded a plane since.

        So don’t rule out bad play here down the road. Governments are in business to expand their reach and control over the Plebs. It’s always been that way.

        To quote Ronald Reagan: “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help.’”

        • drb753 says:

          At that point they will get invaded. It is Iran after all. They either keep people on their side, or collapse. It has been so for at least 40 years.

        • first off–Reagan promised unlimited growth. Carter lost his job because he told the truth. Reagan got rid of financial investment controls, resulting in financial catastrophe in 2008. Reagan effectively gave you ‘financial freedom’ to do as you choose.
          Just a few got ob scenely wealthy by those same freedoms. I suspect you are still as poor as I am.

          Some muslim fanatics decide to fly planes into buildings, so the TSA became inevitable
          But of course–9/11 was all a conspiracy to ‘control us’.

          So you decide it was all a plot to ‘restrict your freedoms’ and haven’t flown since. Fair enough. I find pre-flight palaver a pain too—but I know why it has to be like that now. It keeps me safe. The world has changed, and not for the better. We all have to live in it.

          The vid about bread ration in Iran made it clear that ID was necessary to get bread at govt subsidised prices. If not, it was clear too that subsidised bread would end up on the black market at higher prices, thus denying those who needed it most.
          I would have thought this was obvious.

          But no–its all another conspiracy.

          If we look for conspiracies–we are sure to find them, even if we have to create them ourselves.

          • Rodster says:

            Nice deflecting. The Reagan quote was about government overreach on its citizens and he was 100% correct. You seem to trust government, well congrats because I don’t.

            China has implemented its own ID system into its social credit score. It’s not a good thing.

            • your response was also a deflection

              the bottom line is that the world is overpopulated by about 3bn people.

              that makes ‘control’ of some kind inevitable unless you are prepared to rough it in alaska or somewhere.

              no–i dont trust government, but neither do i see the TSA as some kind of contrivance to restrict my freedom.
              I dont want to risk being on a plane where some crackpot would be allowed to bring a gun in his cabin luggage—but obviously you resent not having that ‘freedom’.

              i see it as being for the ‘common good’—you see it as an infringement of your personal freedom.

              unfortunately humankind has moved itself on from the ‘freedom of the frontier’—life isn’t like that any more.

          • Kim says:

            Um, Building 7. Not hit by a plane. For no apparent reason collapsed into its own footprint.

            Yeh. Just a conspiracy theory.

        • Artleads says:

          Thanks for making it clear.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      This is just more smoke to confuse the hordes… and distract them from seeing the abattoir that we are being herded into …

      We will all be dead soon

  21. Sven Røgeberg says:

    With a little help of Google translate this article is a good illustration of what Gail tells us economic models are missing: «Because of the physics of the economy, it behaves very differently than most people assume. People almost invariably assume that all aspects of the economy can “stay together” regardless of whether there are shortages of energy or of other products. People also assume that shortages will be immediately become obvious through high prices, without realizing the huge role interest rates and debt levels play. People further assume that these spiking prices will somehow bring about greater supply, and the whole system will go on as before. Furthermore, they expect that whatever resources are in the ground, which we have the technical capability to extract, can be extracted».
    https://www.aftenposten.no/meninger/kronikk/i/Polpzz/ny-studie-det-er-kostnadseffektivt-aa-satse-paa-sol-og-vindkraft

    • New study: It is cost-effective to invest in solar and wind power
      Even without an offensive climate policy, solar and wind power could become the dominant power technologies in Europe.

      Excerpts:

      To achieve the EU’s ambitious climate goals for 2050, production capacity in the European power system must roughly double. This is because solar and wind power have far lower capacity utilization than conventional technologies such as fossil-based power production and nuclear power.

      The study also finds that the international transmission network in Europe must be increased fivefold to ensure security of supply.

      Of course, resources will be available to do all of this. I didn’t get far enough to see whether the study looks at the fact that these devices don’t work very many years, so you have to keep replacing them, including the ones already installed. Other fuel will be available for backup, indefinitely.

  22. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    What the World Needs Now, is Love, Sweet Love ….AND

    The Modern World Can’t Exist Without These Four Ingredients. They All Require Fossil Fuels

    TIME Magazine…

    Four materials rank highest on the scale of necessity, forming what I have called the four pillars of modern civilization: cement, steel, plastics, and ammonia are needed in larger quantities than are other essential inputs. The world now produces annually about 4.5 billion tons of cement, 1.8 billion tons of steel, nearly 400 million tons of plastics, and 180 million tons of ammonia. But it is ammonia that deserves the top position as our most important material: its synthesis is the basis of all nitrogen fertilizers, and without their applications it would be impossible to feed, at current levels, nearly half of today’s nearly 8 billion people.

    Fossil fuels remain indispensable for producing all of these materials.

    VACLAV SMIL
    Smil is Distinguished Professor Emeritus at the University of Manitoba. He is the author of over forty books on topics including energy, environmental and population change, food production and nutrition, technical innovation, risk assessment, and public policy. His new book is How the World Really Works

    wow, mainstream media dares to write the REAL STORY….How did that happen?

    • Good points! Maybe Time is up to writing about it.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        You know how when the MSM knows a famous person is not long for this world … and they pre-write bios and eulogies on them … so that the day the person drops dead…. they are ready to print…

        Are you preparing something for BAU and the human species?

  23. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Walmart’s biggest one week drop since Lehman.

    And it’s only Wednesday.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTC8zQwWQAIafKi?format=png&name=medium

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Can we get some more footage of dead bodies coming back to life… maybe some tanks blasting away and derelict buildings — while a drone hovers overhead filming… make sure there are no dead bodies again …. that’s too much for some folks

      • Jarle says:

        FE, according to your criteria there are no wars, anywhere.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          There are plenty – just not in Ukraine

          There is loads of footage from places like Syria and Afghanistan during their recent wars with the US

          Explain to me why I am seeing fake fighter jet footage (video game) and video of dead people coming back to life in Ukraine. As well as reused photos from other wars

  24. MM says:

    While Gail was busy writing a new article, Tom Luogo has come out with an article about an aspect of the EU strategy for not purchasing Russian oil:

    https://tomluongo.me/2022/05/12/real-reason-behind-eu-embargo-russia-oil/

    It basically says Russian oil wells can not be shut down temporarily if there should be an over capacity on the market for not buying Russian produced oil and there also is little storage in the ground or in ships. If Russia would have to shut down wells, they might risk that it would be very difficult for them to reopen them.
    Oil people know this of course.
    It hints at the EU quite knowing something about oil drilling dynamics.

    There are just some isues with that:

    1. Oil just sells by it’s very existance. It is highly unlikely that Russian oil has to be cut off from the market.
    2. Are Russia and the arab countries still in an “oil dispute” or have they silently agreed to form a cartel that tries to keep the price as high as possible to benefit them all
    3. The EU plans to get more oil from the arab countries but they have indicated that there is a little technical difficulty. In my humble opinion, the difficulty is, when you do high water pressurized pumping, you might overdo it and ruin the entire operation. So probably the EU does NOT really know all about oil extraction. Probably their text books are just too old….

    And more long term: What would be the benefit of destroying Russia and grabbing all the resources, if the oil wells have been terminally shut down? And the EU wants to (needs to, eh?) get rid of FF anyhow.
    So some questions remain open….

    • gpdawson2016 says:

      Some questions remain open you say MM. I’ve got one:

      The first point.. ..1. Oil just sells by it’s very existance. It is highly unlikely that Russian oil has to be cut off from the market.

      Anyone spending time on OFW will know that what sells oil is the net-energy it contains and as this net-energy falls so does the affordability.

      Visit Alex Christoforou YT channel where he explains how Greek Shipping will deliver Russian oil to European ountries thru a very circuitous routes, erasing its true origin. And then think of how this effects the net-energy ratio of oil in general.

      Ah!…but you will say, the oil in the tanker … the oil in the tanker, it has not changed its net-energy!

  25. MasklessAvenger says:

    A question about Figure 8:
    Sometime in the 1990’s I recall there was a change in the way the inflation rate was calculated.
    Is Figure 8 data adjusted for this change, or is some of the data from different inflation rate calculations?

    • The data is whatever goes into the US GDP figures. Thus, it includes whatever nonsense the US is using. It is probably a little lower than the Consumer Price Index – All Items; I haven’t checked. The BEA tends to go back and “change history.” So, I don’t expect that it is what was published, years ago.

  26. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Family set to take legal action over death of son, 26, who died from ‘catastrophic’ blood clots two weeks after he received AstraZeneca Covid jab ‘having been told there were no Pfizer vaccines available that day’
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10825547/Family-legal-action-son-26-died-blood-clots-two-weeks-AstraZeneca-jab.html

    • D. Stevens says:

      There’s a picture of their son and his girlfriend together. Her name is Alex Jones which is kinda odd. Could be a sign our simulation is starting to glitch? They also look well to do and attractive so maybe this will get traction.

    • Rodster says:

      Nice try! It wasn’t the vaccines that caused the blood clots, it was from the stress, thinking that the vaccines COULD cause blood clots. We all know the vaccines are 100% safe and effective. They’re just out to make the vaccines look bad.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        The defendant should argue that they are curing stooopidity thus doing the world a great service

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Hope they have plenty of cash to lose with the lawyers

  27. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Russia jumps to 4th position as oil supplier to India – tanker data

    NEW DELHI (Reuters) – Russia became the fourth-largest oil supplier to India in April, with volumes set to rise further in coming months as low prices spur demand from the world’s No. 3 oil consumer and importer, tanker tracking data showed.

    Russia’s share in India’s oil purchases rose to a record 6%, about 277,000 barrels per day (bpd) in April, up from about 66,000 bpd in March, when it was in 10th position, according to the data, which was supplied by trade sources.
    https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/russia-jumps-to-fourth-position-as-oil-supplier-to-india–tanker-data-2826140

  28. Michael Le Merchant says:

    I wonder if any CLO products are imploding yet?
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FS5VbgfWUAA3xuN?format=png&name=large

    • CLO = A securitization to manage a pool of leveraged loans.

      If interest rates go up and some CCC rated companies default (or even higher rated companies), it could cause some tranches to default.

      • banned says:

        Subprime was AAA. But the fed has bought all those MBS now. Problem solved. And the title company guarantees the title is clean! All good! Silly problems all with solutions.

  29. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    I definitely see a Growth opportunity…PeeWee Edwin burn MOREON Coal…

    The devastation of extreme temperatures is playing out right now in several places around the world. A gargantuan heat wave over India and Pakistan, where 1.5 billion people live, is now in its third week. Just 12 percent of India’s population has air conditioning, but even those people are suffering. The heat has triggered power outages, water shortages, and killed dozens, although the true toll may not be known for weeks.

    Swaths of western Europe are also facing a heat wave, with temperatures forecasted to breach 40°C, or 104°F, later this week.

    Closer to home, Texas is currently facing a record-breaking heat wave just as six power plants suddenly went offline. The state’s grid operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, asked residents to avoid using large appliances and set thermostats to 78 degrees Fahrenheit between 3 pm and 8 pm.

    https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/23067049/heat-wave-air-conditioning-cooling-india-climate-change

    There are now roughly 2 billion air conditioners in use around the world today, with half of those units in the US and China alone. Cooling systems like ACs, fans, and ventilation account for about 20 percent of energy use in buildings globally, according to the International Energy Agency. That adds up to two-and-a-half times as much electricity consumed globally for cooling as the entire continent of Africa uses.

    Very long article in the link…

    Hopeium

    At the same time, there is going to be a massive market for sustainable cooling technologies. “There are billions of people that aspire to be wealthy, and as your income starts going up, you’re going to want to have access to cooling,” Kyte said.

    The electricity that powers air conditioners needs to come from sources that don’t emit greenhouse gases, so dialing down coal, oil, and natural gas power on the grid and ramping up wind, solar, and nuclear energy is crucial.

    Technology alone is not enough. ACs are only useful for people who work indoors, but millions still labor outside. Reducing outdoor air temperatures requires careful planning to ensure adequate shade and measures like cool roofs. For some jobs, workers will have to take on schedules that keep them out of the sun during the hottest times of day. In some places, the only tolerable times to work outdoors are at night.

    Folks don’t get it ..there are no solutions ..just outcomes …Come on now wake up

    • When a person reads International Energy Association reports, the authors talk about the need for more air conditioning in India and Africa in the future. This sounds more than crazy to me; these parts of the world cannot keep light bulbs on today. People do not have operating refrigerators because the electricity is too intermittent.

      • Artleads says:

        +++++ But it’s amazing how entitled to these things many in the “developing world” feel.

    • Lorraine H Sherman says:

      Yes Herbie, problems have solutions while predicaments have outcomes. This is why I’ve been harping on passive solar housing/shelter. 4-6 feet underground will protect from heat and cold with no technology needed but for some earth tubes. Watch Garbage Warrior to understand the concept. My very first research paper in fall of 1978 was on energy efficient housing and the most energy efficient is underground. Always has been. Buildings are the number 1 energy suckers, then the animal slaughter industry, then transportation. Imagine a society that did not have to pay an electric bill for their house? Lots of money would be freed up. Jobs lost too, but when one door closes another door opens…..

      We are living through the end of the age of oil, what a time to be alive.

      • Herbie Ficklestein says:

        I’m a child of the 70s and remember all those titles, articles and workshops that featured those concepts.
        Believe John Shuttleworth of Mother Earth News even opened a demonstration village in Henderson, NC to promote it all
        One of my favorite books of that era was titled The $50 dollar Underground House
        Those were the days my friend…if only it wasn’t a fringe movement

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Why not just move into a cave? Won’t a shelter in the ground have water seepage?

        • Artleads says:

          Not enough caves to spread around. But any kind of digging releases carbon–40% of world supply (close to surface) being in the ground. And while water seepage can be addressed with fairly sophisticated means like French Drains, employing those means seem too complex to be widely afforded.

      • Looks like we share interest in “most energy efficient housing”.
        Could you share your research and other resources? I am very interested in this topic.

        You could also review my concept in this matter (when you click my avatar). I will appreciate your wis.dom.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Ya go there to discuss this exercise in futility — we’re trying to focus on The Extermination …. we need to concentrate on the matter at hand… doomsday prepping is for DelusiSTAN

          That said – my mate’s giant hole in the ground with all the rebar and cement is a thing to behold… very cool! Maybe he’s going with the nuclear fall out shelter design… aka the underground prison (unless he’s going to live for centuries)

          • And still FE you have quite comfortable house in NZ with some food storage, I guess? Am I right? You still try to survive also in bad times, aren’t you?

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I have some residual food from the doomie days… I don’t add to it .. and much of it might be spoiled.

              I have plenty of popcorn though!

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Funny thing… currently onto a Great Courses series on Mesopotamia … many instances detailed where climate change over the course of a single generation … caused epic multi year droughts… taking down kingdoms…

      Apparently the Kings were hauling in coal and building pyramid sized structures and setting the afire to try to defeat the Winter God.

      Duh…. read a bit of history – it helps with perspective

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Oh… and stop boring us with this klimate bullshit … cuz it’s exactly that – bullshit

  30. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    Floridians have been feeling the squeeze of double-digit rate increases for property insurance.

    Some have faced policy cancellations while others are having to pay out of pocket for a new roof before they can get a new policy.

    Tuesday, one insurer asked state regulators to sign off on a nearly 50% rate hike on its homeowners policies.

    The Florida Office of Insurance Regulation held a hearing during which the Florida Farm Bureau asked to hike its homeowner policy rate by 48.7%.

    First Floridian sought approval for a 22.9% increase and Kin Interinsurance wants to hike its rates 25.1%.

    The large rate increase requests underscore the precarious nature of the state’s property insurance market.

    Insurers say the crisis is manmade — a result of a surge in litigation, rising rates of reinsurance and even fraud.

    https://www.wesh.com/amp/article/florida-residents-insurance-rates/40025941

    So what do people do?

    Verizon: Everyone Is Moving to Florida
    The wireless carrier says its subscribers are decamping en masse for the Sunshine State.
    The Sunshine State has seen a “recent massive, pandemic-related influx of people,” it says.

    Among the counties and cities it listed, Orlando and Miami had the biggest growth in increased busy-hour population, with Orlando up 408% and Miami up 365%, as opposed to a “mere” 135% in Tampa. The additional traffic means Verizon will spend $149 million more to build Florida networks than it had expected to pre-pandemic, the company says.

    Come on down…I dare you!

  31. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    Important article and surely will be overlooked by those needing a happy ever ending.
    Thank you for efforts…
    Looking forward to Pee Wee Edwin’s comments on the Vaxced…

    Sri Lanka Default Hints at Trouble Ahead for Developing Nations

    BY SYDNEY MAKI AND AMELIA POLLARD / BLOOMBERG
    MAY 18, 2022 7:44 AM EDT
    Sri Lanka’s impending default on $12.6 billion of overseas bonds is flashing a warning sign to investors in other developing nations that surging inflation is set to take a painful toll.

    The South Asian nation is set to blow through the grace period on $78 million of payments Wednesday, marking its first sovereign debt default since it gained independence from Britain in 1948. Its bonds already trade deep in distressed territory, with holders bracing for losses approaching 60 cents on the dollar. The government said last month it would halt payments on foreign debt.

    Sri Lanka’s situation is unique in the way all debt crises are—the particulars here involve an unpopular government run by an all-powerful family, the unresolved aftermath of a 30-year civil war and violent street protests. But the island’s saga is starting to be seen as a bellwether for emerging markets where shortages exacerbated by inflation, including record-high food costs globally, have the potential to roil national economies.

    “The Sri Lanka default is an ominous sign for emerging markets,” said Guido Chamorro, the co-head of emerging-market hard-currency debt at Pictet Asset Management, which holds Sri Lankan bonds. “We expect the good times to stop. Slowing growth and more difficult funding conditions will increase default risk particularly for frontier countries.”

    From Time Magazine

  32. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Target shares sink more than 20% after company says high costs, inventory woes hit profits

    “Target’s net income in the quarter fell to $1.01 billion, or $2.16 per share, from $2.1 billion, or $4.17 per share, a year earlier. Excluding items, the retailer earned $2.19 per share, 88 cents short of the $3.07 expected by analysts surveyed by Refinitiv.”
    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/18/target-tgt-q1-2022-earnings.html

    • Target isn’t doing well either, it sounds like. Not good for stock market as a whole.

    • Michael Le Merchant says:
    • Rodster says:

      What complicates things for these retailers is wage increases as Target has been forced to pay it’s employees higher starting wages due to the labor shortages. Walmart is another. In my area even Taco Bell is paying a starting starting hourly wage of $16. Put in food perspective, a five layer beef burrito was priced not too long ago at $1. Today it’s priced at $3.49 so that’s more than triple the price. They also put up a large sign at the door about national shortages and certain items may not be available.

      That pay raise just went poof, just like it did in Venezuela where its citizens all became millionaires but they could not afford the basics.

      • John Muller says:

        The increase in wages doesnt explain all the increase in prices. Market concentration and broken supply chains are better explanations.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        BAU = no longer feasible.

        Brace Brace Brace

      • Jane says:

        Starting pay at the local Stop & Shop: $17/hour.

        A few years ago the top hourly rate was $11/hour.

        And it looks like they still can’t find employees.

        Local nursery has help that does not speak a word of English.

  33. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Housing Bust…

    MBA Mortgage Applications -11%, vs +2.0%
    – Purchases -11.9%, vs +4.5% last
    – Refis -9.5%, vs -2.0%

    • Not a big surprise.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        We just got our valuation – it’s up 40% over 3 years… which means higher taxes…

        It’s probably gonna drop by a third in the next year — if there is a next year.

        • Our town’s lister came by last month licking his chops, asking what kind of roof was going onto the “new” build we started several years ago. “Standing-seam is $600/square now!” What did it use to be? “$100/square.”

  34. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Russian gas flow to Europe via Ukraine drops 50% in last week

    Gas shipment to Europe falls after Ukraine halts gas purchases at Sokhranivka entry point and Gazprom stops use of Polish section of Yamal-Europe pipeline
    https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/russian-gas-flow-to-europe-via-ukraine-drops-50-in-last-week/2591330#

    • I would imagine that at this time of year, Europe could get along on current lower imports for its day-to-day needs. It would be mostly the filling of reserves for next winter that would be adversely affected.

      • MM says:

        Here is a german article from one of the largest underground gas storage facilities in Haidach, Austria, that currently only Germany has access to;

        https://salzburg.orf.at/stories/3156845/

        I did not fully understand the content because I think that some content was missing but it goes like:

        As the owner of the facility (subunit of Gazprom) is currently not engaging in filling the storage as the government wants to see it, there has been a new regulation that the state of Austria will get “access to it” and connect it to the Austrian gas grid and broker the usage of “spare” capacity to other companies by the Austrian regulator.

        As I said before:
        1. As the govenment starts interfering with energy infrastructure at will, the sentiment for “private sector investment” might go down.
        2. The government decides who will get “business opportunities” and who has to be deptived of them. (I think it has been tried in Italy)

        Conclusion of 1 and 2:

        In the long run we might end with the energy infrastructure back in the hands of governments only. Been there, see UK railroads selling and repurchasing.
        Will now just be: “sell and steal back”.

      • Student says:

        It is incredibly hot for the period these days, expecially in South Europe.
        We have also received various media message to avoid air conditioning as much as possible ‘to help Ukraine’ (totem zelensky) and also ‘to save the planet’ (totem greta).
        I think that there will be a lot of laughter this winter…

  35. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Cost of insuring Chinese sovereign is at a 2Y high. Covid restrictions biting.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTCduuxWYAAVryE?format=jpg&name=medium

    • Not too surprising. There also are rumors about President Xi stepping down because of health issues.
      https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/world/xi-jinping-to-step-down-as-chinese-president-rumors-buzz-over-cpc-leader-ill-health-covid-mismanagement-economy-fall-2022-05-15-776711

      Xi Jinping to step down as Chinese President? Rumors buzz over CPC leader’s ill-health, Covid mismanagement
      The rising rumours about Xi Jinping stepping down started after a meeting of the party politburo standing committee, which is the collective leadership group that rules China. Further, a video made by a Canadian-based blogger was doing the rounds on social media before China censored it.

      There are rumors that President Xi has a brain aneurysm and had to be hospitalized for it at the end of 2021. Also, in 2019 and 2020 appearances, he had an unusual gait and needed to support himself when sitting down.

      The rising rumours about Xi Jinping stepping down started after a meeting of the party politburo standing committee, which is the collective leadership group that rules China. Further, a video made by a Canadian-based blogger was doing the rounds on social media before China censored it.

      The blogger claimed that until a major party meeting was organized in the latter part of the year, Xi Jinping would be forced to step aside from the Chinese Communist Party. The current Premier Li Keqiang will be assuming the place on Jinping’s behalf to take over daily management of the party and government.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        He’d prefer to spend the final months with his family?

        Musk hinted he might die suddenly… (wants to avoid the final stage of UEP?)

  36. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Chinese oil demand below. If China was open oil would be at $200.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTCeq08WQAA-59E?format=jpg&name=small

    • We should all be thankful for China’s COVID restrictions. Without them, the world would have a terrible problem with oil supply and the supply of many other commodities.

      • Herbie Ficklestein says:

        Yes, I thank Chairman Mao too for keeping China essentially a closed economy with the people having one set of cloths and if they get rich a bicycle and radio.
        BTW. when Nixon paid his groundbreaking visit to the Red Emperor back a half Century ago in 1972….is it that long ago ???yikes I am OLD..
        The initial expectations was very limited…nothing that has transpired today…remember the ping pong tournaments?

        • Somebody in China still has a lot of money. I just got a color brochure, advertising a Chinese cultural show, Shen Yun, attached to my front doorknob in a little plastic pouch, The caption says “China Before Communism”. Someone had to be paid to walk to my house in small-town rural VT and individually offer this thing.

          Ticket prices range from $86 to $156.

      • That was the objective of letting the Wuhan virus escape in January 2020 anyway

  37. Michael Le Merchant says:

    UK is much closer toward an economic crisis than everyone thinks :

    UK PPI Input: +18.6% YoY, highest since records began.

    UK PPI Output: +14% YoY, highest since 2008.

    UK PPI Retail Price: +11.1% YoY, highest since 1982.

    • A person would think that these inflation rates would have a terrible impact on the economy.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Recall those riots in the UK 5 or so years ago ….

        Surely the poor would be out and burning cars again now .. but they are not.

        The Simulation does not call for it.

    • Rodster says:

      Renowned forecaster Martin Armstrong has his take on the Fed and I agree with him that the inflation we are seeing has more to do with shortages and lockdowns than it does with Fed policies. He goes on to say that if the Fed does raise rates it will have the reverse effect and make inflation an even bigger problem because inflation will be based on shortages and people will buy things whether they need them or not because they figure the price will only go higher.

      When I recently worked for a major home improvement company, they were hoarding products not because they saw the price increasing from their suppliers BUT because the product just might not be available at any price, period.

      https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/the-coming-liquidity-crisis/

      • Also, if sellers add the higher interest costs to their costs of production, this too will push inflation along.

        • Student says:

          I can tell you from my personal long Sales experience that a very negative point for the economic system about inflation is that costs are not completely predictable.
          Therefore suppliers always add precautionary figures to what they know at the moment is the real cost (they add precautionary figures because something unexpected can happpen along the line and they even can run the risk to lose money).
          Additionally, when a supplier has different items on its portfolio, it takes the opportunity also to increase the price of another item (maybe not directly affected at the moment by cost increases) because it is the right time to do it !
          In fact the client will not argue too much, at that precise moment, for a price increase on another item… and it would be difficult to do it in another moment.
          That way everything goes in the direction of helping to increase the price of all goods on the market.
          At the end, this total price increase lands on the final consumer’s shoulders and then it happens the depression that you explain very well (thank you).

          • Good points! I think I have heard someone else make a similar comment. If most things are going up in price, customers don’t object to other things rising in price at the same time.

            • Student says:

              Suppliers takes the opportunity to fix other items prices which had very low margin from the past.
              Often it involves prices of items that have been accepted to fight competitors (it often happens).
              But now it is the only opportunity to fix the situation about the price of these low margin products.
              And if a supplier doesn’t take the opportunity now it might not do it in another moment (probably running the risk to lose money).
              As a consequences all products rise in price and it becomes a spiral.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              As the end of the world approaches… I imagine the vendors of food will become non-profits – no choice in the matter…

              They may even sell at a loss – subsidized by the govt….

              These are the desperate measures one might see… as a species heads for extinction.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            In NZ developers will no longer sell at a fixed price when you buy an off the plan house.

  38. Fast Eddy says:

    Earlier on Wednesday, the island’s power and energy minister urged people not to form queues as there were no sufficient petrol stocks. He added that providing fuel has become a “hard task”.

    “Do not stay [in queues]. Even if you stay, we have no way of providing fuel for the next two days. Therefore, we ask respectfully and kindly to not stay in queues for these two days,” Kanchana Wijesekera said in parliament.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/sri-lanka-minister-asks-people-not-to-queue-for-fuel-for-two-days/ar-AAXpJ83

  39. if you want stark raving growth madness:

    https://www.thecgo.org/benchmark/the-answer-isnt-degrowth-the-answer-is-abundance/

    this takes some beating

    • Mike Roberts says:

      The author includes the comment, “Only rich societies can build this kind of infrastructure.” without his realising that only rich societies wreak the kind of environmental destruction that requires they build this kind of infrastructure to give other species a modest chance of surviving. Of course, intelligent societies don’t wreck the environment in the first place.

      • he is a senior research fellow at the University of Utah, so I’m assuming he’s a Mormon, and their entire philosophy is based on infinite abundance–including tribes of kids.

        • MickN says:

          So a bridge ,for among others, big cats and deer. I’m sure the big cats’ letter of thanks is already in the post.

          • lol

            i’d figuredthat out too the big cats just sit on the bridge and wait—genius

          • Herbie Ficklestein says:

            The next phase will be feeding stations for them because they are starving from lack of habitat.
            Growth opportunity there ..more more

        • I1 says:

          To be fair, Dr Tim Garrett is from Utah as well.

          Within the energy depletion v. carbon emission debate, lies the fiat monetary experiment based on interest rates. Seems as if this is the sacred cow to be gored.

    • JesseJames says:

      A joke of an article….

    • I notice at the end,

      “CGO scholars and fellows frequently comment on a variety of topics for the popular press.”

      This explains quite a bit. CGO authors write what the popular press wants to hear.

      Joseph Tainter, author of The Collapse of Complex Societies teaches at Utah State University, also.

      • well it seems to me the ‘The Centre for growth and Opportunity’ is promoting to notion that growth is a derivative of wealth, not the other way around.

        which is a pretty crazy way of looking at the world, by any definition

  40. Wet My Beak says:

    As ram-raiding becomes the new shopping method sensation in new zealand one wag used an excavator to break into a service station.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/467180/wainuiomata-service-station-raided-using-digger-taken-from-building-site

    This more liesurely way of stealing from a commercial premises may catch on. The police are switching to bicycles as the cost of fuel soars ever higher.

    It now takes them an hour to respond to most robberies and homicides. They use whistles instead of sirens to save power.

    The maoris believe that using cash is racist as there was no cash in their traditional societies.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      They should tear the ATMs out of the walls… plenty of cash there!

      Does it feel like everything is really starting to fall apart…

      When I unfortunately have no choice but to interact with ‘people’ they are increasingly joking about doomsday … if this was all happening without the context of the ‘Ukraine War’ they’d be panic buying and getting the guns and ammo ready.

      It’s a good thing it’s all temporary .. once the Ukraine returns to peace… prices will go down .. and then we can refocus on Covid… or was it Will Smith slapping that guy … whatever the MSM tells us to focus on

  41. Fast Eddy says:

    What’s this look like without the threat of prison https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/35716

  42. Fast Eddy says:

    Excess Mortality Hitting New Highs: Canada’s Data Reaffirms That More Jabs Equals More Death

    Edward Dowd: “The two provinces that are the most updated are British Columbia and Ontario, the most populous provinces. That data shows a continued [trend of] not only elevated excess mortality but [also] hitting new highs into the end of the year. And so, what I want to say about that is it’s just confirmatory of what we’ve already discovered.”

    @VigilantFox | Rumble (https://rumble.com/v154xya-excess-mortality-hitting-new-highs-canadas-data-reaffirms-that-more-jabs-eq.html?mref=16emn&mrefc=19) | Full Video (https://www.redvoicemedia.com/video/2022/05/trust-the-science-fraud-is-now-getting-the-attention-of-wall-street-edward-dowd-joins-dr-naomi-wolf-video-interview/)

    • Lorraine H Sherman says:

      Thanks for posting Fast Eddy. It’s hard watching a genocide in real time. And the athletes:
      https://goodsciencing.com/covid/athletes-suffer-cardiac-arrest-die-after-covid-shot/

      • Fast Eddy says:

        These stories bother me less and less… anyone who continues to inject is a fool — the stories of the injuries are widespread — if they choose to ignore them then this is the price they pay.

        I am watching the NHL playoffs and actually hoping someone goes down on the ice with heart damage and the medics come out with the paddles…

        Of course they’d go to commercial break… but just knowing millions saw the player collapse… is a comforting thought.

  43. Fast Eddy says:

    Since travel is no longer an option … I think my final bucket list activity will be to order 5 tractor trailer loads of coal… heap it up in the paddock out back…. set it afire — and see if I can stop winter.

  44. Ian says:

    Each month, I welcome a new article by Gail such as this one. I have been a keen follower of OurFiniteWorld for perhaps ten years now. It’s the first site I go to each day.

    In order not to miss any comments, what I do when I have been away from my computer or phone for a while (and sleeping overnight) is to keep the page open with the most recent comment. Let’s say that comment is at 9:18 (I don’t care if that is AM or PM, 9:18 is enough). First of all, I make a search for 9:18 (e.g. Edit, Find in Page). Then I refresh the page and look for that comment. If it does not appear, I go back to Older Comments and search for that same 9:18. That may require going back through two or more Older Comments to earlier postings. Once I find that comment, I read upwards the more recent (unread) comments and then continue forward to read Newer Comments. If anyone has a more scientific, more efficient, way to do this I’d like to know.

    The other day I stumbled upon a way to read a lot of comments that I’d been unable to find through search engine searches. I’d like to share this, even if it appears a little complicated. Many of the readers here are following various Substack blogs. I took one of FE’s comments as an example, to see if I could find it by searching for text in his extract from a Substack blog. Do note that only the blog itself is indexed by the search engines, not all the comments to these Substack blog articles.

    One needs to search like this, or never find results from these blogs. The parentheses (inverted commas) are most important, in this case using the whole of the next line :

    Geert VB explains it this way: “We were putting immune pressure on essentially the RBD of the spike protein.” site: substack.com

    or

    “We were putting immune pressure on essentially the RBD of the spike protein.” site: substack.com

    but when I searched for words used in the very first comment on the palexander blog that FE mentioned, that very blog came up in the search. So it seems that just the first couple of comments are also indexed.

    Here are fine examples of how this works, or I should say ‘operates’, with different results each time (I’m using Firefox, by the way) :

    “vaccine hesitancy”” site: substack.com

    “vaccine hesitancy” “site: substack.com

    vaccine hesitancy site: substack.com

    Compare the above searches with a search simply for “vaccine hesitancy” and you will quickly see the difference.

    Using the above searches, it’s very hard to find results from Igor.Chudov, but he writes often on that subject.

    I therefore made this search, but results were very unsatisfactory. Note the space after “site:”, leave out that space (at least on Firefox) and one may get “no results” :

    “vaccine hesitancy”” site: igor.chudov.substack.com

    But the first link in the search results led me here, to huge numbers of Igor Chudov’s articles

    https://socialgrep.com/index.php/search?query=site%3Aigorchudov.substack.com

    These search techniques can be used to research on substack blogs any subject of interest, for example “goji berries”. Be aware that if the subject is politically or economically sensitive then it may affect the order in which results are displayed by the search engines, or what results are displayed at all.

    I was using Presearch.com for my searches above. Results on Google.com seem to be similar. I recommend reading this https://swprs.org/advanced-online-media-use/ and also then taking a look at etools.ch, which provides results from 17 search engines, including Yandex and Brave.

    When I use the Russia based Yandex.com as my search engine, I get quite different results. Try this search on Yandex :

    “vaccine hesitancy” site:substack.com

    or, for something highly politicised, Mariupol

    “Mariupol” site:substack.com and compare with results from Yandex then, Google or Bing and perhaps search.brave.com

    However … the head of Yandex is an Israeli citizen and he has just announced,”I have decided to make Tel Aviv the headquarters of the company and bring hundreds of programmers, engineers and technology specialists to the country”.

    It pays to experiment *and* to keep an open mind about everything, and everything that one reads.

    I hope all this is helpful in our continued quest for more information and truth, in this finite world in which we live.

    • Thanks!
      By the way, I have figured out how to search old comments on OurFiniteWorld.com, again. (I thought that that ability had disappeared.)

      The catch is that I am the only one who can search the comments on OFW. I do the search on a listing of comments that no one else has. I am not sure that I am volunteering to look for everything of interest, but I can figure out when the last date was that a given commenter made a comment, for example.

      • Mike Roberts says:

        It’s also possible to load all of the comments onto one page, using the WordPress reader. It ends up as a huge page, of course (especially with Eddy’s comments), but it can then be searched with the browser.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          How do we filter out the thousands of pages where you and norm don’t respond to questions?

  45. Lastcall says:

    Prepping for food shortages ….? Perhaps this is a subtle hint?

    https://swimsuit.si.com/video/yumi-nu-2022-swimsuit-cover-reaction

  46. Hi Gail –

    Thanks for your on-going work. Your younger readers, I’m a 1946 Boomer, might be surprised to learn that in 1980, the average car price in the US was $7,000 and median home $47,200. Median household income was $21,020.

    Had price grown only at the rate of inflation since 1980, a vehicle would be $24,560 and home $165,606 according to the US Inflation Calculator.

    Given the steady increase in home and vehicle prices, far beyond the rate of inflation, it seems to me that interest rate drops were somewhat engineered in order for payments to be semi-reasonable. Over time, banks paid depositors less and less, but had access to low interest rate money. Profit was derived more from fees than the spread between what interest rate was charged on a loan compared to what paid depositors. Terms lengthened as well, reducing the monthly payment. Vehicle loans up to seven years now. Mortgage payments may have very little going to principle, so appreciation of home value is what owners count on for equity, should they need to sell.

    How current complications will hit the US and the world is the ongoing question. They are unlikely to be the same. I’m certain you have a wide number of resources upon which your analysis is based. If you’ve some time for more, I recommend this book: “Water: A Biography” by Giulio Boccaletti. You and your blog readers should find the history interesting. For sedentary civilizations, agricultural production required management of water, leading to various type of States, depending upon the water situation. Food is water and transport over water are power deployments long before hydropower, but that too has a history. Investment in water infrastructure was not always the purview. In the Middle Ages, monasteries had a role.

    Two other authors I’ve found interesting for their world perspectives are Peter Zeihan and Parag Khanna. They both consider geography and demographics, buy have different missions. You already may know of them.

    Relative to the oil market, Zeihan says the US can restrict exports and be self-sufficient with a $70 per barrel floor while the world price would be $150. Russian production may collapse due to storage limits in this time of shipping sanctions. This is different than your whole-world view. It is based on the US shrinking from being the global guarantor of safe shipping.

    Khanna’s is different in that he’s focused on world adaption to the climate disruption via population migration, something, he says, nations never talk about. The forces exist and attention to patterns is important.

    Significant content for both on the web and YouTube video.

    War is not good at allocating scarce resources. Much damage is wrought in the process itself. At the cease fire there is even less. I think the global economy will shrink to a level that is sustainable. The decline will be difficult for those accustomed to current consumption. We will continue to pay more and get less.

    With quantity less achievable, quality may become the standard people use. A simple life, fewer things. In total, the vision is that Humanity descends to the “plateau of creative sustainability.” Many will have quantity declines to get there, but others would need to rise up to this plateau.

    Lean by comparison to recent consumption, overshoot rebalance would be the work. Study of David Fleming’s Lean Logic – A Dictionary for the Future and How to Survive It contributed to this thinking.

    Cheers.

    • Thanks for your observations!

      You give average prices in 1980. This was after more than a decade of high inflation. It would be interesting to see average prices in, say, 1965. They would be even lower.

      The book: “Water: A Biography” by Giulio Boccaletti was published in 2021. It sounds interesting. I may buy it.

      I have run into work by Peter Zehan, but not by Parag Khanna (that I recall). I would expect that population migration is driven as much by overpopulation as by any change in climate. Overpopulation is the number one problem we are facing today, but it is not politically correct to talk about. I wouldn’t know how to separate the two in any study of population migrations.

      • eKnock says:

        In 1973 I was a journeyman in the International Brotherhood of Carpenters Union in Santa Rosa California.
        Journeyman’s wage was $10.50/hour.
        The fanciest pickups were about $6000.
        A new bottom of the line pickup with 6-cylinder and stick shift and no radio was $2000.
        I don’t remember the cost of the houses in the last tract I worked on.
        They were nice houses ….2bath…3-4bedrooms ….2car garage,
        but several of the houses were bought by my fellow tradesman, ie. carpenters, sheetmetal workers, plumbers, etc.
        Equivalent pickups today are more like $60,000.

    • i don’t pretend to be an economic genius—far from it, but Zeihan’s assertion that the USA could be self sufficient in oil at $70, while the rest of the world was at $150 shows a decidedly skewed view of reality.

      i could be missing a trick here, but

      that would mean the standard of living of the average American would be twice that of everyone else. MAGA or what?

      and— self sufficient in oil—for how long?

      It would presumably mean that the USA would have to withdraw into total isolationism. This isn’t ‘world perspective’, it’s blinkered lunacy, peddling notions to the gullible who are eager to to be fed nonsense.

      take his crackpot idea to the next level of logic.

      The USA sits behind its wall of ‘plenty’—while the rest of the world is in oil chaos at $150.

      can you imagine the colossal defence budget to keep everyone else out?

      Zeihan is one of many who seize on one ‘thread’ of a problem and ignore the fact that that thread is part of a tapestry of problems that confront us all

    • I am reading last of Zeihan’s books – Disunited Nations: Succeeding in a World Where No One Gets Along

      https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/42778728-disunited-nations?from_search=true&from_srp=true&qid=FGkjlKcNH2&rank=2

      He analyzes geopolitical ranking and prospects of many important countries, including Russia, China US, UK, Iran, France, Turkey, etc. with deep understanding of state management and topics critical for each of them in terms of demographics, geography, history, culture, local resources, supply lines, geopolitical positions and relations, etc.
      Really interesting book, lot of interesting data, written in a witty convention.
      He was analyst of the famous Stratfor after all. These guys understand how the world works.

      He’s aware what’s ahead. He clearly confirms catastrophic predictions. What is missing in his conclusions is the confirmation of the LtG paradigm and IC collapse. Like many people in the mainstream he probably believes in the next chapter. This is at least what I found in this book.

    • Ed says:

      In total, the vision is that Humanity descends to the “plateau of creative sustainability.” Many will have quantity declines to get there, but others would need to rise up to this plateau.

      Great phrase “plateau of creative sustainability”.

  47. Sam says:

    https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/research/oil-gas-energy-prices
    Here we go how long can high gas last

    • One part of this:

      “So large is the immediate supply shock that we believe prices need to increase to $120/bbl and stay there for months to incentivize demand destruction, assuming no immediate Iranian volumes,” said Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy at J.P. Morgan.

      This could result in a 1.2 mbd hit to this year’s demand, bringing 2022 oil consumption 550 kbd below 2019 levels. If disruption to Russian volumes were to last throughout the year, the Brent oil price could exit the year at $185/bbl, likely leading to a massive 3 mbd drop in the global oil demand.

      Or perhaps the economy starts heading downward, and the price falls.

Comments are closed.