Why raising interest rates to reduce inflation may work out very badly

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Are we headed for very high energy prices? Or, are we headed for a financial system that starts falling apart? The whole economic system may change remarkably. For example, what many people thought was money, or a promised pension plan, may not really be there when the time comes to get value from it. Shelves in stores may be empty when it comes time to make a purchase.

Most people do not understand that the world economy is a physics-based system, powered by energy. If the energy is suddenly much less available, there will be a huge problem. The world economy has been powered by a rapidly growing supply of energy for over 200 years.

Figure 1. World energy consumption by fuel based on Vaclav Smil’s estimates from Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects (Appendix) together with data from BP’s 2011 Statistical Review of World Energy for 1965 and subsequent. Wind and solar are included in Biofuels.

My concern is that the current attempt to bring inflation down will lead to falling energy supply and a world economy that is rapidly changing for the worse.

Figure 2. Energy amounts for 2010 and prior equal to those in Figure 1, with a corresponding amount for 2020. Future energy for 2030, 2040 and 2050 are rough estimates based on the observation that the world is now reaching extraction limits for both coal and oil.

Everything I can see says that world leaders are not able to face the possibility that the world is already running seriously short of oil and coal. Future supplies are likely to be much lower, and much more expensive, if they are available at all. Other energy types (including natural gas, nuclear, hydroelectric, wind and solar) are simply add-ons to a system built using coal and oil.

Current world leaders do not realize that the energy situation is very much like the water level in Lake Mead. Looking at it from the top, there still seems to be water there but, in fact, the required depth is lacking. Water for watering crops will soon be exhausted. The world’s energy supply is not a whole lot different. The supposedly proven reserves do not tell us anything at all. It is the amount of fossil fuels that can be affordably extracted that is important. We have already exceeded the amount that can be affordably extracted. If central banks cut back future energy supplies using higher interest rates, we can expect to encounter major problems going forward.

In this post, I will try to explain some of the issues involved.

[1] The amount of energy the economy requires depends very much on population. The greater the world population, the more oil is needed for food production and transportation. Non-oil energy is a bit more flexible in quantity than oil, but the total quantity of energy per capita needs to keep rising to prevent very adverse outcomes.

Figure 3. World per capita energy consumption by source, with the 1950-1980 period of rapid growth highlighted. Amounts are equal to those used in Figure 1, divided by population estimates by Angus Maddison.

Figure 3 highlights the fact that the period of Rapid Energy Growth between 1950 and 1980 was a period of unprecedented growth in per capita energy consumption. This was a period when many families could afford their own car for the first time. There were enough employment opportunities that, quite often, both spouses could hold down paying jobs outside the home. It was the growing supply of inexpensive fossil fuels that made these jobs available.

If a person looks closely, it is possible to see that the 1920 to 1940 period was a period of very low growth in energy consumption, relative to population. This was also the period of the Great Depression and the period leading up to World War II. Sluggish energy consumption growth at that time was linked to very undesirable socioeconomic outcomes.

Energy is like food for the economy. If energy of the right kinds is cheaply available, it is possible to build new roads, pipelines and electricity transmission lines. World trade grows. If available energy is inadequate, major wars tend to break out and standards of living are likely to fall. We now seem to be approaching a time of too little energy, relative to population.

[2] Recently published data through 2021 indicates that energy consumption growth is not keeping up with population growth, similar to the situation of the 1930s. This says that the economy is doing poorly. Supply lines are broken; most jobs don’t pay well; many goods that normally would be available aren’t available.

Figure 4. World energy consumption per capita, based on information published in BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Figure 4 shows that the year with the highest per capita energy consumption was 2018. This agrees with other information such as automobile sales.

Figure 5. Auto sales by country, based on data of vda.de

For example, the number of automobiles sold seems to have peaked back in the 2018 period. China and India are both reporting fewer automobile sales recently. The economy was already sliding into recession in 2019. The 2020 shutdowns hid the very poor condition the world economy was already in. If people were forced to remain in their homes, they could not take to the streets to protest their poor wages and pension plans. The shutdowns helped give the impression the world economy was doing better than it really was.

Figure 4 shows that even with the bounce back in 2021, total energy consumption per capita is still below the 2018 and 2019 values. This contrasts with the situation that occurred after the 2008-2009 Great Recession. By 2010, per capita energy consumption was back above the 2007 and 2008 values.

[3] We can look back and see how rising interest rates were used to slow the world economy in the 2004 to 2006 period, and how different the economic situation was then compared to now. Even with the rapid growth the economy was making at the time of the interest rates increases, the result was still a deep recession in 2008-2009.

Figure 6. Figure similar to Figure 4 showing world energy consumption per capita, except that notation has been added with respect to the timing of increases in US Federal Reserve Target Interest Rates.

It is clear from Figure 4 and Figure 6 that between 2001 and 2007, the quantity of energy consumed per capita was rising rapidly. This was the period shortly after China was added to the World Trade Organization. Manufacturing was rapidly being moved to China. China’s demand for energy products of all kinds was rising rapidly. As a result of this greater demand, oil prices were increasing between 2001 and 2007. To try to reduce inflation, the Federal Reserve raised target interest rates in the 2004 to 2006 period and gradually brought them down, starting in late 2007.

There are two things that are striking about this earlier situation:

  1. The world economy (as shown by rising energy supply) was growing much more rapidly during the 2001 to 2007 period than it is in 2022. All the world economy is trying to do now is get back to where it was before the 2020 shutdowns, in terms of energy consumption per capita.
  2. Eventually, there was a bad reaction to the higher interest rates of 2004 to 2006, but this did not come until 2008-2009. This was a much longer lag than most people would expect.

Now, in 2022, we cannot get energy consumption per capita up to the 2018 and 2019 levels. There are many unfinished automobiles, waiting for missing parts. Appliances of many kinds are not available without a long wait. Fertilizer is often not available. Broken supply lines leave many store shelves empty. It is not that demand is unusually high; it is the supply of the energy products we need to grow food and to transport many finished goods that is not available.

Raising interest rates is a way to reduce the demand for finished goods and services, such as automobiles and appliances, if the world economy is growing very rapidly, as it was back in the 2001 to 2007 period. If the problem is an inadequate supply of finished goods and services (due to broken supply lines and low wages for workers), then raising interest rates is entirely the wrong medicine. It will cause even fewer automobiles and appliances to be made. It will cause many current workers to be laid off. Such an approach, when the world is trying to deal with too few workers, will tend to make the situation worse, rather than better.

[4] The trend in fossil fuel supplies is concerning. Both oil and coal are past peak, on a per capita basis. World coal supply has been lagging population growth since at least 2011. While natural gas production is rising, the price tends to be high and the cost of transport is very high.

Most energy charts are similar to Figure 7, showing energy consumption on a total product supplied basis, without reference to the size of the population using those resources.

Figure 7. Total quantity of oil, coal and natural gas supplied based on information published in BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Figure 7 indicates that coal supplies are, in some sense, the most troubled of the three types of fossil fuels. In the 2001 to 2007 period, China was able to ramp up its manufacturing using coal, but eventually those supplies ran short. In fact, coal supplies around the world started running short. Instead of telling us about the shortfall in production, we started hearing a story that sounds a lot like The Fox and the Grapes of Aesop’s Fables: Coal is a horribly polluting fuel which we don’t really want anyhow.

To understand how these quantities correspond to the world’s rising population, it is helpful to look at consumption divided by population, shown in Figure 8.

Figure 8. Oil, coal and natural gas energy consumption per capita, based on data in BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Figure 8 shows that oil consumption per capita was relatively stable up until 2019. Then, it suddenly dropped in 2020, and it has not been able to fully recover from that drop in 2021. In fact, we know that as oil production has tried to increase in 2022, its price has risen further. Of the years shown, 2004 was the year with the highest oil consumption per capita. That was back at the time that “conventional” oil production peaked.

Figure 8 shows that the peak production of coal, relative to world population, was in the year 2011. Now, in 2022, the least expensive coal to extract has been depleted. World coal consumption has fallen far behind population growth. The big drop-off in coal availability means that countries are increasingly looking to natural gas as a flexible source of electricity generation. But natural gas has many other uses, including its use in making fertilizer and as a feedstock for many herbicides, pesticides, and insecticides. The result is that there is more demand for natural gas than can easily be supplied.

[5] Governments and academic institutions have gone out of their way to avoid telling the world how important energy of the right types and in the right quantities is to the economy.

Politicians cannot admit that the world economy cannot get along without the right quantities of energy that match the needs of today’s infrastructure. At most, a small amount of substitution is possible, if all the necessary transition steps are taken. Each transition step requires energy of various kinds. For example, a small amount of intermittent wind can be added to the fossil-fuel generated electricity supply, if care is taken to ramp up fossil-fuel generated electricity to offset the lack of wind when there is a shortfall in supply. Otherwise, battery or other storage is needed for the wind energy until the wind energy is truly needed by the system.

Thus, most people today are convinced that the economy doesn’t need energy. They believe that the world’s biggest problem is climate change. They tend to cheer when they hear that fossil fuel supplies are being shut down. Of course, without energy of the right kinds, jobs disappear. The total quantity of goods and services produced tends to fall very steeply. In this situation, there is likely not enough food for all the people in the world. War is likely to break out over limited resources.

[6] Once the economy starts heading downward, it is not clear that the economy can ever “catch itself” and start back on an upward path again, even for a short while.

Back in 2001, the World Economy was able to get a “bail out” from China’s rapid growth in coal production, but as we have seen, world coal production is no longer growing as fast as population.

Back in about 2010 and 2011, growth in US crude oil from shale formations was able to temporarily bail out world oil supply, but now this is also failing. Also, even the recent “growth” shown is to a significant extent from the completion of “drilled but uncompleted” wells started earlier. Eventually, there are no more “DUCs” to complete.

Figure 9. EIA chart showing US Field Production of Crude Oil through June 24, 2022.

In fact, despite all of the supposed high reserves of many kinds around the world, there is little evidence that the Middle East, or anywhere else, can actually raise production much higher.

Once the economy starts shrinking, debt defaults are likely to become a big problem. Banks will find their balance sheets impaired. They may be forced to close. Citizens with deposits may find that only part of their balance is available to spend.

Government programs will necessarily be forced to cut back to match the energy supplies that are available. For example, if road paving material is not available, roads cannot be repaved. If fuel cannot be found for school buses, students may need to learn at home.

Governments at all levels have promised pension plans. In fact, many employers have promised pension plans. Without a growing supply to cheap-to-produce energy, these promises are meaningless. Somehow, governments will find it necessary to cut back on their promises. Perhaps, Social Security and Medicare programs will be handed back to US States to fund, to the extent that the states have funds for these programs. Governments around the world can expect to face similar problems.

With less energy supply available, the whole world economy that we know today seems likely to start falling apart. Fewer goods will be available through international trade. It is cheap energy that has allowed today’s economy to function. Once this cheap energy is depleted, the world economy will need to shrink back in many ways, at once.

We don’t really know precisely what lies ahead, and perhaps, this lack of knowledge is for the best. We cannot even imagine a world economy changing rapidly for the worse.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
This entry was posted in Energy policy, Financial Implications, News Related Post and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

3,945 Responses to Why raising interest rates to reduce inflation may work out very badly

  1. Fast Eddy says:

    ‘They’re all so, so sick. It’s just this general decline in the population’

    A paramedic of 18 years from Southern Ontario, who refused to divulge her full name because of fears she could lose her job, said the call volume for paramedics was reduced during the first months of the pandemic. “Everybody was so scared, they were all staying home. But we were not seeing people sick with COVID-19,” she said.

    The paramedic said they were busier during that winter, but the call volume was still lower than previous years. “The only thing that was different than a normal flu season was that patients’ oxygen saturation would be lower. But we never saw any young people. These were all 80 year-old, bedridden people [who] were dying,” she said.

    The paramedic said during the third wave of COVID-19, they kept hearing on the news that “Toronto hospitals were overwhelmed and they were using ambulances to transport people to surrounding hospitals.” But after they signed up for a hospital transfer shift, they would “sit there for 12 hours.”

    “I did one transfer out of a Brampton hospital, but that was it. They eventually cancelled the program because nobody needed to be transferred out of the hospital,” they said. “But then I would go home and hear on the news that hospitals were overwhelmed, and yet I had just been to the ICU that day, and seen that the place was half empty. And I thought ‘what is going on here? Where are all the COVID patients?'”

    https://www.westernstandard.news/news/exclusive-paramedics-speak-out-about-empty-hospitals-probable-vax-injuries-during-covid/article_273993dc-0167-11ed-97d5-978f968c2e82.html

  2. Fast Eddy says:

    McTague ended up losing his job in October of 2021 for not getting vaccinated. He said besides wishing he had gotten a full pension, he doesn’t regret his decision. “I don’t miss that job at all. And the way things are now, I don’t think I could ever go back anyways,” he said.

    McTague said he believes the COVID-19 vaccines have caused more damage than the virus itself. “I’m not saying that there is no COVID virus, I just don’t think it’s any more serious than the average seasonal flu. And what the politicians have done is beyond stupid.”

    https://www.westernstandard.news/news/exclusive-paramedics-speak-out-about-empty-hospitals-probable-vax-injuries-during-covid/article_273993dc-0167-11ed-97d5-978f968c2e82.html

  3. Fast Eddy says:

    ‘The vaccines are causing a lot more harm than the actual virus’

    McTague said he wasn’t busy during the pandemic’s early stages. He claimed many people were so afraid of contracting COVID-19 they chose not to go the hospital, even if they were experiencing serious medical episodes.

    “We weren’t being called for COVID-19. It was our usual medical calls and car accidents and stuff like that. But I don’t know anybody who actually had COVID that was serious enough to warrant a 911 call or a hospital visit.”

    McTague also said every patient that was brought into the hospital was labeled as having COVID-19, no matter what their symptoms were.

    “I think they might have even said explicitly ‘everybody’s COVID until proven otherwise,'” he said, adding that the media and politicians exaggerated the severity of COVID-19.

    McTague said following the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccines, he began seeing “weird stuff that I had never seen before.” These included a woman in her 30s who suddenly went permanently blind, men under the age of 25 having heart attacks, and people having seizures for the first time later in life, which McTague said “usually happens when people are younger.”

    “I saw a few people that went blind, but her in particular, she was pretty young and healthy. People don’t just suddenly go blind unless they get hit in the head or have a stroke. To just go blind, shortly after being vaccinated, I can’t imagine what else that would be,” McTague said.

    Many of the people McTague saw with heart attacks and strokes, “didn’t have the textbook presentations or symptoms.”

    “There was a guy in his in his 20s, who was a very fit, bodybuilder type. He woke up in the middle of the night screaming with chest pains. We couldn’t even assess him because he couldn’t talk to us. He was in so much pain and writhing around. I can’t prove to you what caused that, but he had been vaccinated,” McTague said.

    https://www.westernstandard.news/news/exclusive-paramedics-speak-out-about-empty-hospitals-probable-vax-injuries-during-covid/article_273993dc-0167-11ed-97d5-978f968c2e82.html

  4. Fast Eddy says:

    Looking forward to it

  5. ivanislav says:

    Footage of Uvalde cops milling around in the hallway which adjoins the shooter’s class-room, for a full hour, while the shooter keeps shooting people.

  6. Fast Eddy says:

    As employers across the world are planning to bring workers back to offices, the Netherlands has just passed legislation, making work from home a legal right. The Dutch Parliament’s lower house passed the bill; work from home will become a right if the legislation gets approval from the Senate.

    https://www.livemint.com/news/work-from-home-will-soon-be-legal-right-in-this-country-11657548463105.html

  7. Fast Eddy says:

    Pfizer has been trending for a 2nd day as people are waking up to the fraud. The initial adult trials in 2020 were fiddled but the toddler trials were off the scale for manipulation.

    Why did 3000 of the 4500 not complete the toddler trial?

    https://t.me/c/1588731774/12807

    https://twitter.com/Lukewearechange/status/1463932846570192901

  8. Fast Eddy says:

    Unprecedented: Mortality in Finland Has Risen to All-Time Highs. Australian Deaths Are 17.5% More Than the Historical Average

    https://lionessofjudah.substack.com/p/unprecedented-mortality-in-finland

    • JMS says:

      Fun fact: if we lost 15% of world population every year, by 2030 there would be 1.8 billion people in this planet… as in the Roaring twenties.

      • Jef Jelten says:

        That would only be true if we have no births or 100% infant mortality I presume?

      • Jan says:

        I guess that will be much more. The Austrian government is speaking about a war economy. Europe is buying all LPG available, so countries dependent on LPG are left in the basket. The Netherlands are cutting their available food resources by 30%. Whether or not you expect global warming or global cooling – if won’t yield good crops. Popular charlatanry results in a bunch of age limiting problems, from auto-immune inflammations over immune weakenings, cancer, clots, miscarriages, Jacob-Kreutzfeld to lower fertility rates.

        Scaling effects will lead to an exponential disappearing of people.

        What did Madonna sing in 2019?

        Not everyone can come into the future.
        Not everyone that’s here is gonna last.

        And she added: It’s not in the air, it’s inside of us!

  9. Fast Eddy says:

    How to Lie with Statistics – What is the real percentage of Unvaccinated individuals in England?

    https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/how-to-lie-with-statistics-what-is

  10. Eddy mentioned Kim Dotcom having no child care.

    That’s why stay-home retainers were born, just like the British servants of the old

    The servants were not expected to marry. They would stay in the mansion for the duration of their lives and if they grew too old to operate they were sometimes allowed to die in the servants’ quarter, although in most cases they were cast to the streets to perish.

    That’s how things will be like under technofeudalism with chips restricting the servants’ movement and prevent them from entering places they are not supposed to reach

  11. Fast Eddy says:

    Malone is prepping:

    The scary thing is that food shortages are coming. Energy shortages have only just begun. Energy costs have increased 40%. – particularly fuel. They are trying not to have gas and diesel shortages- by making energy prices unaffordable for the average American. The consequences of ESG scores, WEF carbon policies, domestic oil policy and the Ukrainian war are flushing our economy down the toilet.

    Furthermore, when transport prices go up that much, more inflation is sure to follow. Hang on folks, we are not even close to being out of the woods.

    (For us, I am keeping my cars and farm vehicle fuel tanks filled. We are keeping household, pet and livestock food and supplies well-stocked. For more hard to find items, we are stockpiling. Particular imported food items. Already European cheeses seem to be disappearing from grocery store shelves.

    https://rwmalonemd.substack.com/p/news-and-notes-

    It’s the visceral reaction of most people when they suddenly realize ‘we are f789ed’… Mr DNA — the primitive beast inside each of us — is rather low on intelligence (that’s why the PR Team specifically targets him)…. has an immediate reaction when the brain informs him that ‘we are f789ed’ responds in this way…

    It’s obviously illogical and futile …. if anything Mr DNA should be unsheathing and preparing to kill the preppers — he should be demanding more guns and ammo…

    • ivanislav says:

      He is stockpiling ‘European cheeses’. I can’t figure out if he’s a total moron or simply wants to enjoy himself in the end times before he flickers out.

      • Kim says:

        Main thing is to select the right wines to go with them.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        He problem understands that doomsday prepping is futile cuz the hordes will come for him — and living in the US there would be a fuel pond nearby — so he knows his shelf life would be limited if he could survive the hordes…

        He just wants some favourites for Show Time….

        Some prefer popcorn … some want a cheese plate… me – well I’d go with this given the option:

        https://youtu.be/UtYUJhdEH6A

    • MM says:

      There is no more Mr DNA in the brains of the vaxxed.

      • Tsubion says:

        Literal zombies. But instead of eating the brains of the unvaxxed… their own brains have been hijacked by whatever was in the jabs.

  12. Fast Eddy says:

    hahahaha… see Fast Eddy’s comment re Albright … animal torture….

    Let’s see if anyone ‘likes’ that take on things…

    https://markcrispinmiller.substack.com/p/showing-what-good-a-single-man-can

  13. Downunder says:

    Banned, the system was put in originally with 7 x 180w solar panels and provided power for the lighting fridge freezer and any appliance under 2kw. once or twice in winter we would have to put on the gen for a couple of hours if we had a couple of days in a row with no input. then we got another three 180w panels and a MMPT and so in the last few years haven’t use the gen. Sorry don’t know the size of the batteries off hand but there are 12 cells to make up the 24v system.

    • Jan says:

      That’s perfect for a few years but sooner or later there will be no spare parts. Even if you store a replacement MPPT. If you rely on canning instead of freezing your jars might reach their lifespan and even if you manage to smelt glas, you won’t be able to work so precisely that underpressure can be hold by a grommet. Unless you have salt in the garden you have to rely on drying. Do you know about storage clamps? Some roots and salats can be kept in cold but frost-free sands.

      A lot of knowledge from the past is still present. The problem will be to get access when all communication breaks down and libraries are far and access restricted or vandalised.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I wonder if living in a huge underground bunker with a life time supply of canned food would protect you from the spend fuel pond cancer causing toxins?

        How do you filter the air?

        You could allow water to seep in however that would also be contaminated.

        Basically – you are f789ed.

    • banned says:

      Just a couple of months ago I and a friend were discussing those 2 volt batteries. 12 2 volts on a 24v system provide 50% greater amp hours than 8 6 volts on a 48v system. 24 2 volts for a 48v system would be total overkill. 12 2 volts on a 24v system might well be a sweet spot for battery longevity and cost effectiveness. Myself I would have no problem with the larger wire sizes and disconnects on a 24v system ( double amps of 48v) to gain battery service life. Batteries to inverter and charge controller are short runs. 4v batteries would be ideal for 48V and they make them but I have never seen them in real life. The battery manufacturers and sellers have only one problem right now. Keeping batteries in stock. Oddball stuff is not a real concern. What is out there is 6v and 2v. While conclusions from a single data point are not best practice this is a very interesting data point. Thank You.

  14. Minority of One says:

    I don’t know who owns GB news (a relatively new UK-based tv and internet news broadcaster), but it ain’t the usual mob (TPTB).

    Mark Steyn speaks to wife and mother of doctor who lost his life after taking the Covid vaccine
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HGKbGzrpco

    Unfortunately, not a lot of people will see this video.

    Mark Steyn does a lot of eye-opening vaxx interviews / videos. I sincerely hope that he does not ‘have an accident’ soon.

  15. The Police forces in USA might actually be a different species from other humans. They are thoroughly desensitized from killing and will relentlessly fire on the civilizations, something the would be protestors in USA are not aware of.

    A few years ago there was a Swedish guy named ‘smite’ who talked about such kind of things. The LEO will bring APCs and other unassailable-with-guns-in-the market weaponry to deal with the protestors, with thousands plus casualties.

    It was already done in Cairo, where the military simply killed everyone at al-Tahiri square, a favorite place for the protestors, without mercy. Old, young, men, women, all. That didn’t even make a news.

    That’s how the advanced world will deal if something like Sri Lanka happens.

    • ivanislav says:

      Police have families and have to go home at night. Good luck maintaining your work-life separation if you piss off a fantastically-armed local population.

      • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-jmDnj8k83Y

        cop land (1997)

        Cops have their own gated communities and their own support system so they do NOT have to deal with the families of people they killed. They retire to cops-only communities , patrolled by their own. For all practical purposes they are their own caste.

        If their community is attacked their families and friends, who tend to be cops, will defend it without mercy

    • Kim says:

      Those vehicles run on diesel.

      Cops have families and live in houses.

      • See my reply to Ivanislav above

        They have their own community and retired to cops-only retirement homes to make sure they never face the families of the people they killed.

    • Kowalainen says:

      Smite… Wasn’t that the schmuck that couldn’t stop cackling about AI and look where we are now…

      https://youtu.be/BCBBAeuNiY4

      AGI drones and remote controlled gear will get that job done no problems. A few kiddos with good reflexes and situational awareness could maul down the herd once hooked up to a tele-robotics and computerized ‘decked out’ M1A1 or Leopard Tank.

      Read the book “Enders Game” for some “Inspiration”.

      The kids think they play the game when they’re shooting for real.

  16. All the rebellions and protests will eventually be met by very brutal reaction.

    The landowners won’t have any mercy on those who are clinging to their very survival, and will kill them.

    Only about 10% of the world’s advanced world , or maybe 1/70 to 1/80 of the world’s pop, have a stake on the earth. It is a good thing that the Guidestones went away; they were too generous.

    Matthew 21
    The Parable of the Tenants

    33 “Listen to another parable: There was a landowner who planted a vineyard. He put a wall around it, dug a winepress in it and built a watchtower. Then he rented the vineyard to some farmers and moved to another place. 34 When the harvest time approached, he sent his servants to the tenants to collect his fruit.

    35 “The tenants seized his servants; they beat one, killed another, and stoned a third. 36 Then he sent other servants to them, more than the first time, and the tenants treated them the same way. 37 Last of all, he sent his son to them. ‘They will respect my son,’ he said.

    38 “But when the tenants saw the son, they said to each other, ‘This is the heir. Come, let’s kill him and take his inheritance.’ 39 So they took him and threw him out of the vineyard and killed him.

    40 “Therefore, when the owner of the vineyard comes, what will he do to those tenants?”

    41 “He will bring those wretches to a wretched end,” they replied, “and he will rent the vineyard to other tenants, who will give him his share of the crop at harvest time.”

    even Jesus sided with the landowners. There is no mention about how the landowner treated the tenants before, but the landowner hires men to kill the tenants on the allegation that they killed his son, and presumably the hired guns become the new tenants.

    In the Mexican movie “The New Order”, about an uprising of the have nots against the haves, the military eventually jumps in and executes the uprisers with a show trial. A replay of what happened in the 1910s with the cold blessing of Washington.

    I don’t see any other way . A massive culling of the have-nots, to bring the pop back to 1930 is inevitable.

    • The world population in 1930 was about 2 billion, or about one/fourth of its current level.

      If the world can continue to extract some fossil fuels, perhaps this would work. There will be a whole lot of infrastructure that needs to be kept up however, and not enough workers to do that.

      An argument could be made that the sustainable population is a lot less than 2 billion.

      • Jan says:

        Resource distribution was a lot different in the 30ies! Many local rigs. The accessable reserves are now very concentrated: Russia, Venezuela, Middle East.

        You can see on Venezuela that oil alone does not get it out of the ground. An oil rich area where people manage to autonomously keep a high standard of technology would give them enormous power over the rest of the world. But for what good? To run a regional freight train and produce steel? Who would construct planes and sophisticated weaponry to dominate a group of savages? A lot of what we consider ‘development’ in fact just makes sense if scaled up. And that won’t be possible.

        The 500 million are always mentioned as the number before industrialisation, eg that can be fed without the injection of fossile energy.

    • Sam says:

      I’m not sure what you mean by the have nots . I think you would probably be in this category because you sound like an elitist with no real skills… people with the blue collar skills are going to be worth a lot more.

      • Not much since they are easily replaceable and the landowner will teach one of his staff to do the job

        • CTG says:

          Not much since they are easily replaceable and the landowner will teach one of his staff to do the job………….

          The landowners today are nothing more than paper pushers. you want Billy Gates to teach you how to farm?

          • Kowalainen says:

            I’m sure Billy G can replace a borked hydraulic pump and cooked VCU on that newfangled AI equipped tractor-drone.

            Yeah, right…
            🤦‍♂️

            And hoomanoid robotics isn’t quite there just yet for the “singularity” to manifest. And even if it would, what role would Billy G play in that scenario?

            Shit is simply too heavily cost-cutted and poorly designed and tested for reliability and resilience toward gradual degradation and malfunction.

            Sooner or later that crucial piece of equipment will malfunction and fail, and then it is back to the Stone Age in no time flat.

            Failing electronics is a failing civilization. Those who can’t get simple gear with no moving parts to last for millennia (inevitable malfunction from cosmic rays) got nothing to do in the business of “singularity”.

            People, managers, engineers, are just a bunch of sloppy, dopey, yahoos too vested in primate WtP to be able to produce gear that can stand the test of time.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      That is exactly what Jesus is talking about…. LOL

      2000 years of Christianity really paid off!

    • Fast Eddy says:

      or at some point – the minions stand aside… and allow the hordes to tear the masters to pieces?

      Armenia as well. Yerevan, citizens are trying to storm government buildings. While the security forces are coping with the onslaught of civilians.

      “They will not be able to walk the streets”

      https://twitter.com/sheeplovelies/status/1546463882100854784

      • The masters might die but their children, nephew, or even second cousin will run away and the old social fabric set by the masters will exist.

        One thing Stalin did well was uproot the whole of society to places they never heard about before, to destroy such fabric.

        The landowners can bide their time , pretending to surrender, until they catch the right moment to strike back. It might take generations but they come back.

      • Kowalainen says:

        People storming the guvmint is a metaphor of standing in the front of the mirror and smashing it with your fist.

        Plenty of oh noes, blood and shattered pieces for merely showing the reflection of primate WtP and “we” didn’t like that, now did “we”?

        That still won’t fix the Tryhards and MOARon collective subconscious. Primates gonna primate now and forever.

        Failed species.
        👍

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Doomed species

          First species to self-extinct.

          hahahaha GREAT!

          What I find interesting is that we destroy the planet and torture billions of other animals — and have caused many thousands of species to go extinct…. yet if I suggest to people that the only solution to this is to remove the problem — they get very angry and feel like beating me to death – how dare I say such things….

          Then they celebrate a pay raise … and an increase in the value of their stock portfolio which is a direct product of an increase in the destruction of the planet and an acceleration in the pillaging of our finite resources.

          It’s as if the herd is running towards the cliff … and picking up speed along the way — the know the cliff is ahead… yet they cannot help themselves.

          This for me … defines stooopidity.

    • Jason says:

      You don’t sound like an American. We are armed to the teeth. If cops fire on protesters the next protest will have a lot of dead cops.

      • On the contrary. I have seen the heavy weaponry cops will bring.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9axbePQBK80

        Good luck fighting them.

      • CTG says:

        You don’t sound like an American. We are armed to the teeth. If cops fire on protesters the next protest will have a lot of dead cops……….

        My opinion as an outsider looking into this?

        The ones who have guns are the ones who will sit at home and say “leave me alone”. The ones who are anti-guns are the ones who will be gathering demanding more restrictions from government.

        So, as I see from outside in, the ones who have guns will undergo slow boil. They will not have the chance to use their firearms. They will always say “we have guns, take them from us and we will shoot”. Unfortunately, only paper tiger…

        • Fast Eddy says:

          If one reads the ZH comments… the gun people have been threatening for years now — if they push us too far the lead will fly….

          Biden stole the election … did the lead fly?

          They were forced to wear masks and many were mandated into taking jabs – did the lead fly?

          I suspect that most of them will remain in their basements stroking their barrels and stacking ammo … I imagine they get off on that when they are not watching po rn

    • Bobby says:

      Inspection!

  17. Michael Le Merchant says:

    USD wrecking ball…

    Emerging markets bond fund
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXkTlMNXwAA9Z-R?format=png&name=large

    • I am sure that both the Emerging Market Bond Funds and the ETFs mimicking them are doing poorly.

      A lot of popular “investments” have been doing poorly.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      too bad travel is such a hassle… hotels would be ultra cheap (for those of us who hedge in USD and gold)

  18. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Guitarist Who Lost 8 Fingers After J&J Vaccine Tells RFK, Jr.: People Have to Be Held Accountable

    On a recent episode of “RFK Jr. The Defender Podcast,” guitarist Jeff Diamond described having eight fingers amputated and losing his singing voice after developing blood clots about a week after getting the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine.
    https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/guitarist-jeff-diamond-jj-vaccine-rfk-jr-podcast/

    • Minority of One says:

      Good interview. This guy must know a lot of people in the USA-based entertainment business. What are they all doing – ignoring reality?

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Endorphin rush.

      Thanks for that…

  19. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Cash-strapped Pak may face serious economic crisis amid fast-depleting forex reserves

    State Bank of Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves fell to single digits despite a USD 2.3 billion inflow from China late last month.

    Cash-starved Pakistan could face a serious economic problem as its foreign exchange reserves are depleting fast amid rising external debt servicing, according to a media report on Wednesday.

    The country’s external debt servicing rose to USD 10.886 billion in the first three quarters of 2021-22 compared to USD 13.38 billion in the entire FY21. It was just USD 1.653 billion in 1QFY22 against USD 3.51 billion in the first quarter of 2020-21, but it jumped to USD 4.357 billion in 2QFY22 and to USD 4.875 billion in 3QFY22.

    The country has been facing a serious threat from its external front as the State Bank of Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves fell to single digits despite a USD 2.3 billion inflow from China late last month, the Dawn newspaper reported.

    ?The increasing size of the external debt servicing in each quarter indicates the government has been borrowing dollars at higher commercial rates to meet its foreign debt repayment obligations,? the report said.
    https://www.easterneye.biz/cash-strapped-pak-may-face-serious-economic-crisis-amid-fast-depleting-forex-reserves/

    • Minority of One says:

      Pakistan has been in financial trouble for a long time. I wonder why?

      Population: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/PAK/pakistan/population
      1950: 37,696,264
      Now: 235,824,862

      Approaching a 10-fold increase since 1950. 10-fold ffs. If only someone could come up with a population control programme.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Mike Yeadon has informed me a few weeks ago that ‘I do not believe there is an overpopulation problem’

        I dropped the Al Bartlett video as he seems to not realize the exponential function is in play

        • Minority of One says:

          I think we will know when Mike Yeadon ‘Gets it’. He will go silent, maybe lose it altogether.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Yeadon acknowledges a grim outcome and has said that he requires meds that will not be available post BAU…

            Yet he clings to the Great Reset jibberish… he has adult children and no doubt grand children… any option – no matter how grim — is better than extinction…

            He has suggested at one point when I posted Bossche presentations that he does not trust Bossche… (Gates Foundation)… and that he disagrees with Devil Covid being the outcome… I responded with a series of studies pre-covid warning that deadly mutations are a risk associated with leaky vaccines being deployed into a pandemic – it’s a no-no. He does not respond to that although he has mended the fence with Bossche recently.

            Again – he does not want to believe they are cooking up Devil Covid … it’s too much for him … it’s too much for most people…

            Nobody wants to believe we are being terminated.

            Mike Yeadon is most obviously an ethical person — and he must be suffering incredibly under the weight of all of this.

      • Don’t provide so much cheap food and antibiotics to Pakistan.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Didn’t I read the other day that Pak is loaning $$$ to Shree Lanka???? hahahahaha WTF

      • Minority of One says:

        I often wonder how China is able to lend cash to anyone, but it does, lots. The country is effectively bankrupt. Same with USA, and most European countries giving cash to Ukraine.

        • ivanislav says:

          China is not bankrupt. They have more assets (factories) than most. You don’t seem to be properly accounting for reality (the physical world) versus financial assets (hot air) that can be written off within their system. The bad debts are all (mostly) internal to China and so the rules can be rewritten without consequence.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Ya they have those massive Ghost Towns too!!!

            • Withnail says:

              Show me one. Western media/Youtubers not accepted as sources.

            • Kowalainen says:

              Ever been to China having a good look around? The ooze of corruption seeps through the proverbial concrete cracks of embezzlement.

              You’re not an engineer I reckon. A thin sheet of marble and shiny glass surely can bamboozle a WtP simpleton.

              I’m sure those ‘ghost towns’ exist given the crusty and polluted “nature” of everything else.

              https://youtu.be/uS8133FmX78

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I lived in Shanghai for a year .. horrible place… many children have asthma cuz the air is so terribly polluted… much of the time in winter you literally cannot se across the street due to smog….

              I was a passive investor in a business making and distributing air purifier machines in the PRC… the corruption is epic … we ended up exiting the business and selling it because our partner (an expat) was being threatened by connected competitors (Chinese)… the way it works is they put a word in the ear of one of their mates in the government and they magically find a tax anomaly…

              No matter how clean your books are … they find it… and huge fines/imprisonment can result…

              All because you have had some success – and they want it. Seen Jack Ma recently?

              China is the arsehole of the world… it’s a filthy stinking diseased shit hole. Nothing redeeming about that country … absolutely nothing.

          • a factory isn’t an asset

            a factory is a place where material assets are processed into material goods which can be sold to produce wages.

            Which can then be used to repeat the process.

            Without raw material assets, a factory is just an empty shed

            • ivanislav says:

              What a ridiculous notion. Of course factories are assets as long as material inputs are available and demand exists for the product. We have an energy problem, but we don’t go to zero immediately.

            • >>>>Of course factories are assets as long as material inputs are available and demand exists for the product. <<<<<

              I think that's what i said.

              Imagine you own a factory

              But there's no asset stream of material passing through it (and no prospect of any)

              do you have an asset

              Or a liability?

            • Kowalainen says:

              It is not even a liability.
              A write off left to rot.

              Same thing with your WtP gizmos and doohickeys that you subconsciously “need” to have, because subconscious prestiges and statuses need upkeep. That and being a self entitled lazy rear ended slob.

              Just imagine £20/liter of petrol/diesel. How soon would that VW of yours be a write off you reckon?

              Normal; repeat after me:

              YOLO!
              Tryhards gonna tryhard!
              MOARons gonna moar!
              Aaaand it’s gone!
              Well, everything except for the worry about your progeny!
              Ah, the irony…

              Happy?
              🤣👍👍

            • Kow

              while I appreciate your fluency in the English language, and respect that it is your second language, I do often wonder what on earth you are going on about—and what your source of annoyance is?

              If its annoyance with me—then I’m afraid you’ll have to join the queue and take your turn.

              As it is, Until you tell me your problem, I can’t offer you any solutions.

              What does YOLO mean?–You keep repeating it. Is it a reindeer herders call or something? you spell moron different to eddy too—but its still wrong.
              Whats a WtP gizmo. I’m not a mindreader.

              i take it a tryhard is something you find yourself having to do

              a lot

              I don’t.

            • Kowalainen says:

              Try typing in the letters:

              Y
              O
              L
              O

              In the piece of software called a web browser. Ever used one to search for acronyms?

              Annoyance with you?
              Oh dear.
              🤣👍👍

              Why not fuel up that VW of yours and drive off into the sunset where you can spend more time with that progeny of yours.

              Yes, one final outburst of that rapacious primate blowing through finite resources as you’re expressing the collective subconscious.

              Yes, be the good ‘Normal’.
              👍

            • are you short of progeny or something?

              mine seem to cause you some degree of concern

            • Kowalainen says:

              I’m giving your progeny my lightly suckled slot in the FF spigot when I kick the bucket, assuming they’ll be around. After all; perhaps the jabba dabba doo’s are hacking away at the telomeres.

              Wouldn’t vax induced progeria be hilarious?
              🤣👍👍

              Anyway, a ‘thank you’ would be nice.
              🫵

              Btw, did you figure it out:
              YOLO?

            • Kow

              i try to give you the benefit of the doubt

              but the only conlusion i can reach, is that in order to make comments, you borrow eddy’s scrabble bag of letter tiles, throw down a handful and type out whatever words you come up with

              i formally give up

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Keep in mind… after 5 shots norm is operating at the level of a below average grade 3 student… he will be confused by what you have posted.

              norm – is this why you refuse to respond to FE and CTGs questions? Do we need to simplify them? Blink once for yes

      • I suppose those who are extremely poor can lend to those who are even poorer. At some point, the chain has to stop.

  20. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Federal Reserve will follow

    Bank of Canada announces huge rate hike

    The Bank of Canada has announced a supersized rate hike, increasing its policy rate by 1% in a bid to stave off rampant inflation and curb sharp increases in consumer price growth.

    The move marked a larger increase than had been anticipated, with most economists and observers having expected a three-quarter-point hike, and brought its trendsetting interest rate to 2.5% – well above its pre-pandemic level.

    Expectations of a significant increase to the Bank’s policy rate had grown after Canada’s inflation rate recently hit a 39-year high, and following an oversized hike by the US Federal Reserve in June.
    https://www.mpamag.com/ca/mortgage-industry/market-updates/bank-of-canada-announces-huge-rate-hike/413002?e=dXNlckBleGFtcGxlLmNvbQ&utm_content=&tu=&utm_campaign=Editorial%20-%20Canadian%20Mortgage%20Professional%20-%20BN&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-44206486

    • Michael Le Merchant says:

      FED’S BOSTIC: ‘EVERYTHING IS IN PLAY’ WHEN ASKED ABOUT POSSIBILITY OF 100 BPS JULY RATE HIKE

    • Fast Eddy says:

      StagflationarydepressioncollapseUEPglobalholodomor ahead…

    • It is hard to see how this will work out well. I suppose Canada wants to be at the “top” to the chain. In other words, raise its currency relative to other currencies.

  21. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Truckers plan LA/Long Beach work stoppage Wednesday to protest AB5

    Some California truckers who move containers in and out of the marine terminals at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach say they plan to participate in a work stoppage Wednesday to protest a controversial state law, AB5, that seeks to limit the use of independent contractors and largely classify them as employee drivers.

    On June 28, the U.S. Supreme Court refused to hear the California Trucking Association’s challenge to AB5, returning the case to the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.

    One owner-operator who plans to participate in the port protest says he doesn’t want to become an employee driver, preferring to remain an independent contractor.

    “During the pandemic, we were too busy being essential to realize we were about to be screwed by AB5,” the California trucker, who didn’t want to be named for fear of retaliation, told FreightWaves.

    Gordon Reimer, manager of Southern California-based FHE Express, says many of the 75 owner-operators his company uses to move freight to and from the ports in Southern California plan to participate in Wednesday’s protest.

    He has notified the trucking company’s customers to expect potential freight delays because of the protest.

    “This will be an inconvenience to us and our customers, but I understand the frustration among independent owner-operators who feel this is the only way to bring attention to their plight as being a former owner-operator myself,” Reimer told FreightWaves. “How can I blame these drivers who now find out that their dream is being snatched away from them all because they’re based here in the state of California?”
    https://www.freightwaves.com/news/truckers-plan-lalong-beach-work-stoppage-wednesday-to-protest-ab5?utm_content=214661916&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&hss_channel=fbp-179175252108775&fs=e&s=cl

  22. Michael Le Merchant says:

    ARMENIA: The hunt for politicians has begun in Armenia as well. Yerevan, citizens are trying to storm government buildings.
    https://twitter.com/sheeplovelies/status/1546463882100854784

    • Fast Eddy says:

      YES!!! See why UEP makes sense to those who are behind the plan now???????

      ARMENIA: The hunt for politicians has begun in Armenia as well. Yerevan, citizens are trying to storm government buildings. While the security forces are coping with the onslaught of civilians.

      “They will not be able to walk the streets”

      Let’s turn this round — the Elders say — We Burn? Ok F789 You – we inject you and burn everyone hahahahaha

  23. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Chinese Homebuyers Across 22 Cities Refuse to Pay Mortgages

    (Bloomberg) — Across China, homebuyers are refusing to pay mortgages as property developers drag on construction projects, escalating the country’s real estate crisis and risks of bad debt for banks.

    Buyers of 35 projects across 22 cities have decided to stop paying mortgages as of July 12 due to project delays and a drop in real estate prices, Citigroup Inc. analysts led by Griffin Chan wrote in a research report distributed on Wednesday.

    The payment refusals underscore how the storm engulfing China’s property sector is now affecting the country’s middle class, posing a threat to social stability. Chinese banks already grappling with challenges from liquidity stress among developers now also have to brace for homebuyer defaults.

    Now is “a critical time for social stability,” said Chan, adding that “the forgoing of down payments may bring social instability.”

    A drop in home values hasn’t helped. Average selling prices of properties in nearby projects in 2022 were on average 15% lower than purchase costs in the past three years, according to Citigroup’s research.

    The contagion is spreading to banks. Non-performing loans triggered by the wave of mortgage payment snubs could reach as much as 561 billion yuan ($83 billion), about 1.4% of the outstanding mortgage balance, according to Chan.
    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/chinese-homebuyers-across-22-cities-refuse-to-pay-mortgages-1.1791120

    • “Buyers of 35 projects across 22 cities have decided to stop paying mortgages as of July 12”

      Wow!

      • Fast Eddy says:

        What cannot continue… is about to stop.

        Surely the end game with this CovCON cannot be far off… the financial issues alone dwarf GFC… all these TBTB entities are set to implode.

        The suspense is killing me!!!! The anticipation is thrilling!

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Slide the keys under the door at the developer’s sales office … hahaha…

      I am surprised they aren’t burning the sales offices down.

      Please note – the Chinese tolerate the CCP because they have delivered prosperity … clearly that promise has been broken … the people may not rise up but they can ‘Burn’ the economy down … by simply refusing to do as they are told.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “Non-performing loans triggered by the wave of mortgage payment snubs could reach as much as 561 billion yuan ($83 billion), about 1.4% of the outstanding mortgage balance, according to Chan.”

      OMG 1.4% OMG!

      yes of course yes this could just be a tip of the iceberg situation, and the beginning of catastrophic contagion.

      or not.

      OMG 1.4% OMG!

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Negative equity is a bitch… contagion is a bitch

        Only a fool continues paying off an asset when he goes into the red.

        Recall the dumb f789s in the US saying – ‘it’s my debt therefore I will pay it’… meanwhile the smart players were stripping the copper and tossing the keys in the ditch

  24. Michael Le Merchant says:

    There isn’t enough coal to cool down a global rally in prices.

    European futures jumped to an all-time high, while Asia is also near a record.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXhF9ucagAAkoRk?format=jpg&name=medium

    • Coal has been in short supply for a very long time, but the problem has been hidden. The story has been told (pretty much true) that it is a very dirty fuel. We would like to transition to something else. Natural gas has somewhat substituted in the US. But then natural gas supply stops rising as fast as needed to offset the coal problems. It is also terribly expensive to ship, whether by pipeline or as LNG.

      • Minority of One says:

        Roundabout 2006-2007 a few reviews/reports suggested that peak coal was imminent (although the relevant articles were universality ignored). I am inclined to believe that remaining coal reserves might actually be worse than remaining oil reserves .

        • went on our local steam heritage railway couple of weeks ago.

          chatting to the people running it—apparently they have to import their coal from Colombia.

        • The remaining coal reserves are awful, as far as I can tell. The high quality coal has mostly been extracted. The coal that is not too far from where it is to be used has been extracted.

          There is coal under the North Sea, but we cannot get to it, except in the imagination of those putting together the reserve reports.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        It’s amazing how switching from coal to gas quickly overwhelmed the gas supply…

        It’s kinda like how we switch to a more plentiful stock of a fish species… and in not so many years we deplete the f789 out of that too… and move on …

        Voracious apes… destroyers of everything we touch

  25. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Distress ratio in Euro HY doubled last month
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXiCZJcXkAE64-a?format=jpg&name=large

  26. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Germany food prices jumped 12.7% YoY in June, the highest food price #nflation since the start of the statistic.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXiKRHDWIAAjFFT?format=png&name=4096×4096

  27. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Germany Will Stop Buying Russian Coal On August 1, Oil On December 31

    Germany will end purchases of Russian coal on August 1 and stop buying Russian oil on December 31, as the country looks to end its energy reliance on Russia following Moscow’s decision to invade Ukraine.

    Russia previously supplied 40 percent of Germany’s coal and 40 percent of its oil, Deputy Finance Minister Joerg Kukies on July 13 told the Sydney Energy Forum, hosted by the Australian government and the International Energy Agency.

    “Anyone who knows the history of the Druzhba [oil] pipeline, which was already a tool of the Soviet empire over Eastern Europe, ridding yourself of that dependence is not a trivial matter, but it is one that we will achieve in a few months,” Kukies said.

    He added that the key challenge ahead will be to fill the massive gap that will be left in gas supplies after Germany and the entire European Union weans itself off Russian supplies, which now amount to 158 billion cubic meters (bcm) a year.
    https://www.rferl.org/a/germany-to-stop-buying-russian-coal-on-august-1/31941018.html

    • Rodster says:

      And yet the stupid Washington Vassal States such as Britain, France, Germany and the rest of the EU can’t and won’t admit they they have been thrown under a Greyhound Bus by Washington. So they play along destroying their economies because Washington doesn’t care what happens to them. The BIG picture for Washington is global hegemony.

    • Minority of One says:

      Through early morning fog I see
      visions of the things to be
      the pains that are withheld for me
      I realize and I can see…

      That suicide is painless
      It brings on many changes
      and I can take or leave it if I please…

      (Theme tune to MASH)

    • Fast Eddy says:

      There will be logic behind this … cuz you don’t commit suicide on purpose… you don’t commit suicide on purpose (get it?) …

      The logic is likely that there’s nothing left in the tank… I suspect time is very short for us… I would be surprised if we make it to Christmas

    • This comes across as craziness to me:

      “Germany Will Stop Buying Russian Coal On August 1, Oil On December 31”

    • Jan says:

      Germany still has a lot of easy to gather soft coal. I have in mind about 100 years the current consumption of electricity. There is also some hard coal left. It would be possible to ramp up soft coal production at least. So all is a bit home made. But it does not change the underlying problem of course.

  28. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Germans will have to burn wood to stay warm this winter, warns Deutsche Bank

    Some German households will be forced to heat their homes with wood instead of gas as Russia turns off the taps, according to dire warnings from analysts.

    Global shortages of gas worsened by Russia’s war on Ukraine have sent prices soaring, with many consumers cutting usage in response.

    Analysts at Deutsche Bank said they expect demand for gas in Germany over the next few months will remain 10pc below the level one year ago, driven by savings by households, industry and the services sectors.

    They added: “In addition, substitution of gas by other energy sources (hard coal and lignite in the power sector, wood for heating purposes in private households where possible, switch to oil derivatives in the industry, etc.) contributes to lower gas demand.”
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/07/13/ftse-100-markets-live-news-gdp-euro-dollar-flights-cancelled/

    • JMS says:

      Happily they have the famous Black Forest, which might keep them safe from hypothermia for an entire winter.

      • NomadicBeer says:

        I know you are facetious but I doubt it’s enough even for a winter.

        A study done some time ago in US found that replacing oil and coal with wood would last weeks or at most months for most US States.

        The best was Oregon (I think) with almost 2 years of energy from wood.

        The study did not include the energy required to cut and process the wood.

        Most European states are denser populated than the US and have less forest.

        • JMS says:

          Long before the Black Forest would burn the German parliament and the houses and bodies of all their politicians. Can’t be.

          So it seems European governments have only two options:
          1) go back to importing Russian gas (paid for in rubles) and proceed with the dismantling of growth economy,
          or 2) head for well-defended and well-stuffed military bases, hoping that after a year nature will have solved the population problem in a sustainable way .

          Both options seem unfeasible, and the second perhaps even more so (despite following the Machiavelian maxim that if you are going to hit, you must hit with everything at once).

    • Ed says:

      Ah yes the forests of Berlin.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Still wondering how one burns fresh cut wood…

        Technically, you can burn a tree that was cut down yesterday, but its usefulness relies greatly on whether or not the tree was already dead. Burning a recently cut live tree’s wood, referred to as “green wood,” is not the best use of the resource or safe in a home. Green wood’s high moisture content makes the wood difficult to burn. The moisture also results in excessive smoke, causing green wood to be a poor choice for indoor furnaces or wood stoves.

        Using green wood can negatively affect wood consumption by up to 25 percent. More than one-half the weight of green wood may be from water. A lot of energy is needed to burn off all that moisture — energy that could go toward providing warmth and a sustained flame. The ideal water percentage in wood for burning is below 20 percent by weight.

        https://homeguides.sfgate.com/can-burn-tree-cut-down-yesterday-104621.html

        I imagine it would give off a lot of smoke …

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Do they have fireplaces or will they do what the Brits are doing and light fires in the lounge?

  29. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    MARKETSThe $100 Trillion Global Economy in One ChartPublished 23 hours ago on July 12, 2022
    By Avery Koop

    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/100-trillion-global-economy/

    Visualizing the $100 Trillion Global Economy in One Chart
    Surpassing the $100 trillion mark is a new milestone for global economic output.

    We’ve covered this topic in the past when the world’s GDP was $88 trillion (2020) and then $94 trillion (2021), and now according to the latest projections, the IMF expects the global economy to reach nearly $104 trillion in nominal value by the end of 2022.

    Although growth keeps trending upwards, the recovery that was expected in the post-pandemic period is looking strained. Because of recent conflicts, supply chain bottlenecks, and subsequent inflation, global economic projections are getting revised downwards.

    Global annual GDP growth for 2022 was initially projected to be 4.4% as of January, but this has since been adjusted to 3.6%.

    1 🇺🇸 United States $25.3 trillion
    #2 🇨🇳 China $19.9 trillion
    #3 🇯🇵 Japan $4.9 trillion
    #4 🇩🇪 Germany $4.3 trillion
    #5 🇬🇧 United Kingdom $3.4 trillion
    #6 🇮🇳 India $3.3 trillion
    #7 🇫🇷 France $2.9 trillion
    #8 🇨🇦 Canada $2.2 trillion
    #9 🇮🇹 Italy $2.1 trillion
    #10 🇧🇷 Brazil $1.8 trillion

    For example, Russia is expected to experience a GDP growth rate of -8.5% in 2022, though it still remains to be seen how the cost of war and increasingly harsh global sanctions impact the country’s economic prospects.

    Inflation, Stagflation, Recession – How Bad is it?
    While global economic growth has already been revised downwards, it’s possible the situation could be even more serious. Organizations like the World Bank say that risks of stagflation are rising. Stagflation, which hasn’t occurred since the 1970s, is defined as an economy that’s experiencing rising inflation combined with a stagnant economic output.

    Currently, global consumer inflation is currently pegged at 7%. Daily goods are becoming increasingly difficult to purchase and interest rates are on the rise as central banks worldwide try to control the situation. As recent events in Sri Lanka demonstrate, low-income countries are particularly at risk to economic volatility.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Would an intelligent, wise species… celebrate how quickly they are paving over their world?

      • Herbie Ficklestein says:

        Oh, you mean filling up the Petri Dish…??? Like you wrote many years ago about a pack of Rats that discovered a shipwreck with a load of grain that was seemingly unlimited…what would the result be? If one intelligent rat.named Edwin. Spoke up and warned the others not to gorge themselves and fornicate constantly producing large numbers of offspring…would Edwin be listened to or would the majority exile and vike poor Edwin accusing sour grapes and foolishness?
        You already answered it. Fast Eddie
        people are clever, somewhat limited on intelligence

    • Of course, this is all with all currencies converted to US$, using the current exchange rate. If the equivalence were on a Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) basis, the US would come out a lot lower and many other countries would come out higher. China would be Number 1, based on the large amount of goods and services that it produces.

  30. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    Add this to the Fast Eddie Collection of Vaids
    It’s Eating Its Own Tissue”- Olympic Swimming Icon Makes a Heartbreaking Confession on His Incurable Disease
    Published 07/11/2022, 12:33 PM EDT
    By
    MANSI JAIN

    Michael Klim has an incurable auto-immune disorder
    The 44-year-old retired swimmer revealed that the doctors diagnosed him with Chronic Inflammatory Demyelinating Polyneuropathy (CIPD) in 2020. It is an auto-immune disorder that attacks the myelin sheaths of nerves and affects function in the limbs. The treatment courses mainly focus on suppressing the immune system.

    Recently, Klim revealed that he suffers from an auto-immune disorder, and can not walk unassisted. The condition is incurable. The swimmer opened up about the devastating illness on Sunday, talking to Lisa Wilkinson on ‘The Project’.

    The body is trying to protect itself, but it’s eating its own tissue,” Klim told Network Ten. “In my case, it’s eating the outside of my nerves.” The former world record-holder suddenly found himself unable to walk at the Kuala Lumpur airport about three years ago. The experience was devastating.

    Of course, if he had gotten the vaccine, iit was safe and effective…

    called Michelle, and I was literally in tears because I couldn’t pinpoint what it was,” he said. “That was one of the scariest moments I had. For me, my ability to do anything physical was something I used to pride myself on and used to give me mental strength. Bit by bit [it] was being taken away,” he further added.

    Klim undergoes immunoglobulin replacement therapy at the Royal Prince Alfred Hospital in Sydney. But even then, there’s a good chance he might end up in a wheelchair one day. “I’ve lost sensation in both of my feet… a little bit of function in my left foot, minimal in my right foot… lost calf muscles on both sides,” he said. “I can’t walk by myself.”

    Klim has had a hard time coping with the disorder

    Poor guy…hoping he does not get Covid to boot

  31. Fast Eddy says:

    The article earlier suggest SL violence was overrated — wishful thinking — but then he has no idea that the cause is peak cheap oil… so he thinks they can fix the situation by replacing the leadership…

    I assume this guy has the means to leave the country — underestimating the mob — can cost you your life…

    NOW – Anti-government protesters besiege and storm the prime minister’s office in Sri Lanka’s capital.

    https://www.disclose.tv/id/1547145500004155395/

    https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/37426

    Notice how the soldiers stand down… I doubt they’d help the PM if the hordes got hold of him and skinned him…

    SL Tee Vee taken off air by protestors https://t.me/robinmg/21532

    I think people were expecting this level of revolt against the CovCON — hasn’t happened anywhere… and it won’t. Hunger and fear of going hungry … are more powerful motivators

  32. Alex says:

    PC Demand Suffers Steepest Decline In Years As Chip Shortage Turns To Glut

    https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/pc-demand-suffers-steepest-decline-years-chip-shortage-turns-glut (excerpts)

    “Demand for personal computers dropped dramatically in the second quarter, and is down 12.6% over the same period last year – the sharpest decline in nine years. Explanation? People splurged during the pandemic.

    Reuters reports that the supply chain crisis has now resolved, leaving a glut of chips. During the pandemic, [“just in time”] shifted to what some jokingly call a “just in case” practice of stockpiling chips.

    Big suppliers of chips to consumer electronics makers, particularly low-end smartphones, are basically doomed. Least affected will be Apple’s suppliers, such as TSMC. Those who provide automotive and data center chips will also do well. “In power management, we’re going gangbusters,” said one anonymous exec. [Other analyst] disagrees on automakers – noting that they ordered far more chips than they needed, and continue to do so.”

    • I imagine that part of the problem with PC demand has to do with all of the new computers purchased in 2020 and 2021 with an increasing number of school children taking instruction at home and an increasing number of workers working from home. All of these purchases temporarily ramped up demand. But once families had one or more new computers, they no longer needed another one. In fact, the stimulus checks helped make the computers more affordable.

    • drb753 says:

      so this was cited as a classic sign of energy shortages and now it is not?

  33. CTG says:

    Sri Lanka Economic Crisis LIVE Updates: Sri Lanka’s national TV network goes off air as protests intensify

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/south-asia/sri-lanka-economic-crisis-live-updates-july-13/liveblog/92840115.cms

    Do humans need food, water and energy to survive?

    • Doesn’t sound good!

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Sounds exciting – it would be very exciting to be there! Riots = adrenaline rush …… once you experience a really good violent riot with lots of TG and water cannons… you get addicted…

        We’ve have to live vicariously through CTG and Michael’s clips…

        Sri Lanka imposes nationwide curfew until Thursday morning, reports Reuters quoting a statement

        Police fire tear gas & use water cannons to disperse protestors near Speaker’s residence close to Parliament: Media reports

        Let’s see how that curfew works out… I think the imposition of a curfew the other day sparked some major rampaging…

        F789 you I won’t do what you tell me?

        Has it come to this? Bernays will be disappointed.. and Freud.

        https://youtu.be/2Hf-B9Tqkss

    • Rodster says:

      As Chris Martenson mentioned in his video yesterday, that there are three things that keeps the population civil and happy or at least content. They are “food, water and energy”. If any of those three are broken then you get complaints from the Plebs. If two of the three become broken, you get civil unrest.

      That’s why the Plebs stormed the Presidential Palace. Make no mistake, as Martenson mentioned, this is coming to a country near you including the US.

      • i always put it as a full belly, a stable home and a job

        which is much the same thing

        • Herbie Ficklestein says:

          Yes, that’s what made Adolf Hitter so popular in Germany from the start. Remember reading about on young adult man ecstatic about finally getting employment after many years…He was so relieved and delighted about being mainstream BAU!, even though it was a low paying entry level position!.
          Folks don’t realize on the importance of being respectable and self reliant.
          What saved the airlines and other industries was the CARES ACT that foot the bill on keeping the payroll numbers…
          Can’t imagine what the layoff numbers and bankruptcies wou have been without it during the Covid lockdown

  34. Minority of One says:

    The BBC propaganda machine is going after the unvaxxed. What’s coming next?

    3m adults in England still have no Covid vaccine
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62138545

    “Nearly three million adults in England have still not come forward for a Covid vaccine, data reveals.

    Experts say the figure includes some people who could get extremely sick if they were to catch the virus.

    Most elderly and vulnerable people have already had several protective shots.

    Getting fully immunised saves lives by cutting the risk of severe Covid illness, although it cannot fully stop infections. Cases have been rising rapidly in the UK in recent weeks…”

    • All is Dust says:

      It appears not to have a comments section, I wonder why that could be…

      Better question – how many Brits who have had a Covid Jab would like to reverse their decision?

      • Bobby says:

        Chers, If I could turn back time

        https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BUbjmLrp9dc

      • Minority of One says:

        “how many Brits who have had a Covid Jab would like to reverse their decision?”

        Possibly not a lot. Everyone I know, my two adolescent children excepted, has swallowed the jabs-are-better-than-good mantra hook, line and sinker. Maybe it is just the people I know, but I see a lot of similar comments online where comments are allowed, especially Brits.

        Seems to me the BBC have been given their latest orders as a prelude to something else coming along soon. Perhaps once Boris has gone. Someone did mention lockdowns might (will?) be coming back.

    • More propaganda, to support the idea that the vaccines have some value.

    • Rodster says:

      The propaganda will never end as well as the FUD aka “fear, uncertainty, doubt”. It’s all PR manipulation. What has been done to the global population, would make Edward Bernays proud.

    • ssincoski says:

      I got the full lecture from my mother in the US recently. She is fully boosted and still not clear. She attributes the fact that she is not dead to her booster regime. I said nothing. She encouraged me to get vaxxed if I was planning to visit the us (which I am not). At first I was angry, but later I just attributed it to too much CNN. I know she means well.

      • Student says:

        Sincoski, me too.
        I experienced a difficult time with my mother during last winter.
        She had two doses and tried to convince me to take the jab.
        But surprinsingly (for them, but not for me) she was infected by my sister who also had two doses and had told me that she had done to protect my mother….
        Now they still have bad health due to long covid situation and they know now that it is because of the jab.
        Other people of my family had Covid without being vaccinated and now – on the contrary – are in good health.
        My father doesn’t want to admit anything but he told me that he won’t take the fourth jab (it has just been approved in Italy).
        He said so without giving me a complete explanation.
        He just said: ‘I had enough jabs… Let’s see this winter’.
        By the way he has recently lost 4 dioptres in one eye and he suffers of joint-pain he didn’t have before.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      They know they won’t vax + they need them to remain unvaxxed… so they have someone to blame as the vaxxed go down with VAIDS>

  35. Tim Groves says:

    Welcome to the Hotel Paranoia!

    A parody rewrite of the Eagles’ 1977 hit song, Hotel California.

    Nice female vocal too!

    607e4dd1?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

    • Herbie Ficklestein says:

      Hunter with his niece, Natalie in bed doing cocaine, semi nude..oh may…
      Never saw that one…
      Actually, read the email texts and Father Joe was very supportive and provided the monies to get his son the help he needed…
      We can only hope Hunter gets off the stuff …
      Powerful and very hard to stay away from the drug..

      Remember Howard Stern TV Show and Crackhead BOB?

      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=J-lFSyFxD2g

      The Stern Show is sad to report the passing of beloved former Wack Packer George “Crackhead Bob” Harvey. He was 56.

      “He was a huge champion of our show,” Howard said Monday.

      Crackhead Bob first became known to show staff after he was noticed at several of Howard’s public appearances in the mid-’90s. “He was always first on line at any of the signings,” Howard recounted to listeners during a 2007 appearance Bob made on the show.

      On the day “Miss America” was released in 1995, Stern Show executive producer Gary Dell’Abate brought Bob up to the studio for the first time, saying that the crew believed Bob had, “cerebral palsy” or something. Bob explained on-air that it wasn’t a disease that altered his appearance and speech but rather the effects of smoking crack – a series of strokes left part of his body permanently paralyzed. Though Bob initially had trouble articulating at what age he began doing drugs, through a series of hand motions and noises, Robin and Howard deciphered that his namesake addiction started around age 25.

  36. Yoshua says:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/cryptowala65/status/1546003810253803521

    CEP revealed by the prime minister of Malaysia

  37. Fast Eddy says:

    The Ministry of Health (MOH) in the past week has just radically changed the way they are coding the data on Covid infections, hospitalisation and deaths.

    Before this adjustment, they withheld the data for one day and have now come out with a completely different set to present to the nation.

    1. All partially vaccinated are now moved into an unvaccinated category. Two days before the withholding of statistics, unvaccinated infections were 50,000 then suddenly went up to 64,000 approx. Partially vaccinated last week days ago were 14,185 infections.

    2. They are also reporting under 12 years of age as one group, whether vaccinated or not, instead of reporting the category as “not eligible for vaccination at the time of infection”. Now, of course, approx 25% of children 5-12 years are vaccinated but presumably, they do not want to compare their numbers to the unvaccinated children.

    3. Hospitalisation with Covid is now being called hospitalisation for Covid. They’ve taken about 40% of the hospitalisations out now. Now there are only around 8,000 hospitalisations instead of 14,000 previously reported. This is more realistic.

    4. However, magically in one day, there were suddenly 100 more ‘unvaccinated’ people in ICU care than they had before.

    The MOH hasn’t been able to ‘adjust’ the deaths other than shifting the partially vaccinated out and putting them into the unvaccinated category. It still looks severe for vaccinated and boosted.

    82% of deaths overall still are vaccinated or boosted.
    In the last 14 days, a rolling day average of 83% of deaths are boosted.

    Why not just totally invent the numbers? Fake everything… insist that 95% of hospitalizations and deaths are in the unvaxxed???

    • ivanislav says:

      These are all important steps taken to ensure that the data is correctly interpreted. Unfortunately, some conspiracy theorists are immune to logic. Pay them no mind – do your civic duty and continue to boost at regular intervals. And as always, remember:

      Trust the Science!
      The food supply is secure!
      A green energy future awaits!

    • Tsubion says:

      Because it’s all a narrative. And the narrative (at this point in time) requires the NPCs to get all riled up.

      Next act? The Empire Strikes Back. Global shutdowns. Total control of plebs. Because we can’t be trusted. No more Mr Nice Guy. Forced everything. Do as you’re told or starve.

      Collapse will be blamed on the deniers. Off to the camps.

      The remnant will be given “palliative care.”

      The technocrats will sip champagne in their castles and eat organic brussels sprouts.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Ya like the PM and President of Sri Lanka are doing … oh hang on … didn’t they just flee for their lives for higher ground?

        All they have done is climb to the stern of the Titanic… they are safe … for now

  38. Fast Eddy says:

    Bryson Gray – HUNTER BIDEN HACKED

    dance along with this norm

  39. Fast Eddy says:

    Police – 1000 gang rapes by grooming gangs in Telford – committed by immigrant Muslims https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/37401

    norm?

  40. Fast Eddy says:

    Whilst you were distracted by Boris resigning, the UK Gov. quietly published a report confirming the Vaccinated account for 94% of all Covid Deaths since April, 90% of which were Triple/Quadruple Jabbed.

    https://expose-news.com/2022/07/11/boris-distraction-uk-gov-revealed-triple-vaccinated-94percent-covid-deaths/

  41. Fast Eddy says:

    Vaccinated persons get infected or re-infected with COVID/omicron, why? These eight (8) studies help explain this increased risk and why it is happening; key is binding of non-neutralizing antibodies

    Note, some say we should discard term ‘COVID’ & now use ‘omicron’ only as it is sufficiently different & one can argue this for BA.5 sub-variant/clade & this is why it is such an immune re-challenge

    https://palexander.substack.com/p/vaccinated-persons-get-infected-or

  42. Fast Eddy says:

    Additionally, the vaccinated with third dose had significantly higher infection rates than vaccinated with two doses and unvaccinated during the Omicron variant surge (since February 2022). This was associated with a significantly higher proportion of hospitalizations in vaccinated with two doses than unvaccinated during the Omicron variant surge (since January 2022), higher proportion of deaths in vaccinated two doses than unvaccinated (since October 2021) and higher proportion of hospitalizations and deaths in vaccinated with third dose than vaccinated with two doses and unvaccinated during Omicron variant surge (since February 2022).

    https://hiddencomplexity.substack.com/p/sars-cov-2-reinfection-hospitalization

  43. Fast Eddy says:

    China locks down another city after one Covid case detected

    Experts warned the country’s stringent approach to the pandemic is becoming ‘increasingly expensive and disruptive’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/china-locks-another-city-one-covid-case-detected/

    This story is not behind the paywall… seems they want us to be able to read this … they seem to do this a lot with the covid propaganda stuff….

  44. Fast Eddy says:

    Jacinda Ardern is paying the price for her hermit zero-Covid economy

    New Zealand is crashing into a hard recession

    https://archive.ph/QMTuq

    But wait – another August lockdown?????

    Good idea mandating the health care workers and leaving the hospitals massively understaffed just as the VAIDS patients are pouring in…

    Another report from a multi vaxxed moreon that he’s ‘sick again’ and won’t make hockey this week… he returned from another sick leave just two weeks ago….

    They’ll never connect the dots. Never.

    They are like dogs confused by a high pitched whistling sound…

    • According to the article:

      The latest data out of New Zealand is simply dreadful. Last week, its central bank forecast that the economy would go into a steep downturn next year after survey results showed business confidence was slumping at alarming rates.

      House prices are falling at the steepest rate for 13 years, and that may well accelerate. Inflation is touching 7pc, a 30-year high. The central bank is pushing interest rates higher more aggressively than anywhere else in the developed world, with a half point increase in May marking the fifth straight rise, along with signals that there are a lot more to come before it is finished.

  45. Fast Eddy says:

    The Unrest in Sri Lanka Has Been Exaggerated

    The writer is in Sri Lanka.

    When I wrote my first postcard from Sri Lanka for the Daily Sceptic in 2020, I was at pains to point out the gross over-reaction to Covid that was on display.

    Today, with the toppling of a President and a South Asian equivalent of the ‘storming of the Bastille’, so much of the discontent and unrest still flows from that period when much of the world lost both its wits and its way.

    President Gotabaya Rajapaksa (scheduled to resign on Wednesday 13th July, the monthly full moon ‘Poya Day’ by the Buddhist calendar) was elected in 2019 to an already indebted nation which had not built up its export sector, emaciated its manufacturing sector and was living off imports brought in on borrowed money.

    At the time of his election, the key source of foreign exchange, the tourism sector, was just recovering from the ruinous impact of the Easter 2019 terrorist bombings. By early 2020, the once-hailed “world’s favourite destination”, as per the Lonely Planet, was back at pre-Easter tourist numbers.

    https://dailysceptic.org/2022/07/12/the-unrest-in-sri-lanka-has-been-exaggerated/

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