The world’s self-organizing economy can be expected to act strangely, as energy supplies deplete

It is my view that when energy supply falls, it falls not because reserves “run out.” It falls because economies around the world cannot afford to purchase goods and services made with energy products and using energy products in their operation. It is really a price problem. Prices cannot be simultaneously high enough for oil producers (such as Russia and Saudi Arabia) to ramp up production and remain low enough for consumers around the world to buy the goods and services that they are accustomed to buying.

Figure 1. Chart showing average annual Brent-equivalent oil prices in 2021$ based on data from BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy, together with bars showing periods when prices seemed to be favorable to producers.

We are now in a period of price conflict. Oil and other energy prices have remained too low for producers since at least mid-2014. At the same time, depletion of fossil fuels has led to higher costs of extraction. Often, the tax needs of governments of oil exporting countries are higher as well, leading to even higher required prices for producers if they are to continue to produce oil and raise their production. Thus, producers truly require higher prices.

Governments of countries affected by this inflation in price are quite disturbed: Higher prices for energy products mean higher prices for all goods and services. This makes citizens very unhappy because wages do not rise to compensate for this inflation. Prices today are high enough to cause significant inflation (about $107 per barrel for Brent oil (Europe) and $97 for WTI (US)), but still not high enough to satisfy the high-price needs of energy producers.

It is my expectation that these and other issues will lead to a very strangely behaving world economy in the months and years ahead. The world economy we know today is, in fact, a self-organizing system operating under the laws of physics. With less energy, it will start “coming apart.” World trade will increasingly falter. Fossil fuel prices will be volatile, but not necessarily very high. In this post, I will try to explain some of the issues I see.

[1] The issue causing the price conflict can be described as reduced productivity of the economy. The ultimate outcome of reduced productivity of the economy is fewer total goods and services produced by the economy.

Figure 2 shows that, historically, there is an extremely high correlation between world energy consumption and the total quantity of goods and services produced by the world economy. In my analysis, I use Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) GDP because it is not distorted by the rise and fall of the US dollar relative to other currencies.

Figure 2. Correlation between world GDP measured in “Purchasing Power Parity” (PPP) 2017 International $ and world energy consumption, including both fossil fuels and renewables. GDP is as reported by the World Bank for 1990 through 2021 as of July 26, 2022; total energy consumption is as reported by BP in its 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

The reason such a high correlation exists is because it takes energy to perform each activity that contributes to GDP, such as lighting a room or transporting goods. Energy consumption which is cheap to produce and growing rapidly in quantity is ideal for increasing energy productivity, since it allows factories to be built cheaply and raw materials and finished goods to be transported at low cost.

Humans are part of the economy. Food is the energy product that humans require. Reducing food supply by 20% or 40% or 50% cannot be expected to work well. The economy suffers the same difficulty.

In recent years, depletion has been making the extraction of fossil fuel resources increasingly expensive. One issue is that the resources that were easiest to extract and closest to where they were needed were extracted first, leaving the highest cost resources for extraction later. Another issue is that with a growing population, the governments of oil exporting countries require higher tax revenue to support the overall needs of their countries.

Intermittent wind and solar are not substitutes for fossil fuels because they are not available when they are needed. If several months’ worth of storage could be added, the total cost would be so high that these energy sources would have no chance of being competitive. I recently wrote about some of the issues with renewables in Limits to Green Energy Are Becoming Much Clearer.

Rising population is a second problem leading to falling efficiency. In order to feed, clothe and house a rising population, a growing quantity of food must be produced from essentially the same amount of arable land. More water for the rising population is required for the rising population, often obtained by deeper wells or desalination. Clearly, the need to use increased materials and labor to work around problems caused by rising world population adds another layer of inefficiency.

If we also add the cost of attempting to work around pollution issues, this further adds another layer of inefficiency in the use of energy supplies.

More technology is not a solution, either, because adding any type of complexity requires energy to implement. For example, adding machines to replace current workers requires the use of energy products to make and operate the machines. Moving production to cheaper locations overseas (another form of complexity) requires energy for the transport of goods from where they are transported to where they are used.

Figure 2 shows that the world economy still requires more energy to produce increasing GDP, even with the gains achieved in technology and efficiency.

Because of energy limits, the world economy is trying to change from a “growth mode” to a “shrinkage mode.” This is something very much like the collapse of many ancient civilizations, including the fall of Rome in 165 to 197 CE. Historically, such collapses have unfolded over a period of years or decades.

[2] In the past, the growth rate of GDP has exceeded that of energy consumption. As the economy changes from growth to shrinkage, we should expect this situation to reverse: The rate of shrinkage of GDP will be greater than the rate of shrinkage of energy consumption.

Figure 3 shows that, historically, world economic growth has been slightly higher than the growth in energy consumption. This growth in energy consumption is based on total consumption of fossil fuels and renewables, as calculated by BP.

Figure 3. Annual growth in world PPP GDP compared to annual growth in consumption of energy supplies. World PPP GDP is data provided by the World Bank; world energy consumption is based on data of BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

In fact, based on the discussion in Section [1], this is precisely the situation we should expect: GDP growth should exceed energy consumption growth when the economy is growing. Unfortunately, Section [1] also suggests that we can expect this favorable relationship to disappear as energy supply begins to shrink because of growing inefficiencies in the system. In such a case, GDP is likely to shrink even more quickly than energy supply shrinks. One reason this happens is because complexity of many types cannot be maintained as energy supply shrinks. For example, international supply lines are likely to break if energy supplies fall too low.

[3] Interest rates play an important role in encouraging the development of energy resources. Generally falling interest rates are very beneficial; rising interest rates are quite detrimental. As the economy shifts toward shrinkage, the pattern we can expect is higher interest rates, rather than lower. As the limits of energy extraction are hit, these higher rates will tend to make the economy shrink even faster than it would otherwise shrink.

Part of what has allowed growing energy consumption in the period shown in Figures 2 and 3 is rising debt levels at generally lower interest rates. Falling interest rates together with debt availability make investment in factories and mines more affordable. They also help citizens seeking to buy a new car or home because the lower monthly payments make these items more affordable. Demand for energy products tends to rise, allowing the prices of commodities to rise higher than they would otherwise rise, thus making their production more profitable. This encourages more fossil fuel extraction and more development of renewables.

Once the economy starts to shrink, debt levels seem likely to shrink because of defaults and because of reluctance of lenders to lend, for fear of defaults. Interest rates will tend to rise, partly because of the higher inflation rates and partly because of the higher level of expected defaults. This debt pattern in turn will reinforce the tendency toward lower GDP growth compared to energy consumption growth. This is a major reason that raising interest rates now is likely to push the economy downward.

[4] With fewer goods and services produced by the economy, the world economy must eventually shrink. We should not be surprised if this shrinkage in some ways echoes the shrinkage that took place in the 2008-2009 recession and the 2020 shutdowns.

The GDP of the world economy is the goods and services produced by the world economy. If the economy starts to shrink, total world GDP will necessarily fall.

What happens in the future may echo what has happened in the past.

Figure 4. World energy consumption per capita, based on information published in BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Central bank officials felt it was important to stop inflation in oil prices (and indirectly in food prices) back in the 2004 to 2006 period. This indirectly led to the 2008-2009 recession as parts of the world debt bubble started to collapse and many jobs were lost. We should not be surprised if a much worse version of this happens in the future.

The 2020 shutdowns were characterized in most news media as a response to Covid-19. Viewed on an overall system basis, however, they really were a response to many simultaneous problems:

  • Covid-19
  • A hidden shortage of fossil fuels that was not reflected as high enough prices for producers to ramp up production
  • Hidden financial problems that threatened a new version of the 2008 financial collapse
  • Factories in many parts of the world that were operating at far less than capacity
  • Workers demonstrating in the streets with respect to low wages and low pensions
  • Airlines with financial problems
  • Citizens frustrated by long commutes
  • Very many old, sick people in care homes of various types, passing around illnesses
  • An outsized medical system that still desired to increase profits
  • Politicians who wanted a way to better control their populations–perhaps rationing of output would work around an inadequate total supply of goods and services

Shutting down non-essential activities for a while would temporarily reduce demand for oil and other energy products, making it easier for the rest of the system to appear profitable. It would give an excuse to increase borrowing (and money printing) to hide the financial problems for a while longer. It would keep people at home, reducing the need for oil and other energy products, hiding the fossil fuel shortage for a while longer. It would force the medical system to reorganize, offering more telephone visits and laying off non-essential workers. Many individual citizens could reduce time lost to commuting, thanks to new work-from-home rules and internet connections. The homebuilding and home remodeling industries were stimulated, offering work to those who had been laid off.

The impacts of the shutdowns were greatest on poor people in poor countries, such as those in Central and South America. For example, many people in the vacation and travel industries were laid off in poor countries. People making fancy clothing for people going to conferences and weddings were laid off, as were people raising flowers for fancy events. These people had trouble finding new employment. They are at increased risk of dying, either from Covid-19 or inadequate nutrition, making them susceptible to other illnesses.

We should not be surprised if some near-term problems echo what has happened in the past. Debt defaults and falling home prices are very real possibilities, for example. Also, making a new crisis a huge focal point and scaring the population into staying at home has proven to be a huge success in temporarily reducing energy consumption without actual rationing. Some people believe that monkeypox or a climate change crisis will be the next area of focus in an attempt to reduce energy consumption, and thus lower oil prices.

[5] There is likely to be more conflict in a world with not enough goods and services to go around.

With a shrinking amount of finished goods and services, we should not be surprised if we see more conflict in the world. Many wars are resource wars. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with other countries indirectly involved, certainly could be considered a resource war. Russia wants higher prices for its exports of many kinds, including energy exports. I wrote about the conflict issue in a post I wrote in April 2022: The world has a major crude oil problem; expect conflict ahead.

World War I and World War II were almost certainly about energy resources. Peak coal in the UK seems to be closely related to World War I. Inadequate coal in Germany and lack of oil in Japan (and elsewhere) seem to be related to World War II.

[6] We seem to be facing a new set of problems in addition to the problems that gave rise to the Covid-19 shutdowns. These are likely to shape how any new crisis plays out.

Some recently added problems include the following:

  • Debt has risen to a high level, relative to 2008. This debt will be harder to repay with higher interest rates.
  • The US dollar is very high relative to other currencies. The high level of the US dollar causes problems for borrowers from outside the US in repaying their loans. It also makes energy prices very high outside the US.
  • Oil, coal and natural gas are all in short supply world-wide, leading to falling productivity of the overall system Item 1. If extraction is to continue, prices need to be much higher.
  • Difficulties with broken supply lines make it hard to ramp up production of manufactured goods of many kinds.
  • Inadequate labor supply is an increasing problem. Baby boomers are now retiring; not enough young people are available to take their place. Increased illness, associated with Covid-19 and its vaccines, is also an issue.

These issues point to a situation where rising interest rates seem likely to send the world economy downward because of debt defaults and failing businesses of many kinds.

The high dollar relative to other currencies leads to the potential for the system to break apart under stress. Alternatively, the US dollar may play a smaller role in international trade than in the past.

[7] Many parts of the economy are likely to find that the promised payments to be made to them cannot really take place.

We have been taught that money is a store of value. We have also been taught that government promises, such as pensions, unemployment insurance and health insurance can be counted on. If there are fewer goods and services available in total, the whole system must change to reflect the fact that there are no longer enough goods and services to go around. There may not even be enough food to go around.

As the world economy hits limits, we cannot assume that the money we have in the bank will really be able to purchase the goods we want in the future. The goods may not be available to purchase, or the government may put a restriction (such as $200 per week) on how much we can withdraw from our account each week, or inflation may make goods we currently buy unaffordable.

If we think about the situation, the world will be producing fewer goods and services each year, regardless of what promises that have been made in the past might say. For example, the number of bushels of wheat available worldwide will start falling, as will the number of new cars and the number of computers. Somehow, the goods and services people expected to be available will start disappearing. If the problem is inflation, the affordable quantity will start to fall.

We don’t know precisely what will happen, but these are some ideas, especially as higher interest rates become a problem:

  • Many businesses will fail. They will default on their debt; the value of their stock will go to zero. They will lay off their employees.
  • Employees and governments will also default on debts. Banks will have difficulty remaining solvent.
  • Pension plans will have nowhere nearly enough money to pay promised pensions. Either they will default or prices will rise so high that the pensions do not really purchase the goods that recipients hoped for.
  • The international system of trade is likely to start withering away. Eventually, most goods will be locally produced with whatever resources are available.
  • Many government agencies will become inadequately funded and fail. Intergovernmental agencies, such as the European Union and the United Nations, are especially vulnerable.
  • Governments are likely to reduce services provided because tax revenues are too low. Even if more money is printed, it cannot buy goods that are not there.
  • Citizens may become so unhappy with their governments that they overthrow them. Simpler, cheaper governmental systems, offering fewer services, may follow.

[8] It is likely that, in inflation-adjusted dollars, energy prices will not rise very high, for very long.

We are likely dealing with an economy that is basically falling apart. Factories will produce less because they cannot obtain financing. Purchasers of finished goods and services will have difficulty finding jobs that pay well and loans based on this employment. These effects will tend to keep commodity prices too low for producers. While there may be temporary spurts of higher prices, finished goods made with high-cost energy products will be too expensive for most citizens to afford. This will tend to push prices back down again.

[9] Conclusion.

We are dealing with a situation that economists, politicians and central banks are ill-equipped to handle. Raising interest rates may squeeze out a huge share of the economy. The economy was already “at the edge.” We can’t know for certain.

Virtually no one looks at the economy from a physics point of view. For one thing, the result is too distressing to explain to citizens. For another, it is fashionable for scientists of all types to produce papers and have them peer reviewed by others within their own ivory towers. Economists, politicians and central bankers don’t care about the physics of the situation. Even those basing their analysis on Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) tend to focus on only a narrow portion of what I explained in Section [1]. Once researchers have invested a huge amount of time and effort in one direction, they cannot consider the possibility that their approach may be seriously incomplete.

Unfortunately, the physics-based approach I am using indicates that the world’s economy is likely to change dramatically for the worse in the months and years ahead. Economies, in general, cannot last forever. Populations outgrow their resource bases; resources become too depleted. In physics terms, economies are dissipative structures, not unlike ecosystems, plants and animals. They can only exist for a limited time before they die or end their operation. They tend to be replaced by new, similar dissipative structures.

While the current world economy cannot last indefinitely, humans have continued to exist through many bottlenecks in the past, including ice ages. It is likely that some humans, perhaps in mutated form, will make it through the current bottleneck. These humans will likely create a new economy that is better adapted to the Earth as it changes.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
This entry was posted in Financial Implications, oil shortages and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

3,957 Responses to The world’s self-organizing economy can be expected to act strangely, as energy supplies deplete

  1. The lead story in the WSJ:

    Biden Tests Positive for Covid-19 Again
    Physician says the president isn’t experiencing any symptoms and is feeling well

    As a result of testing positive again on Saturday, Mr. Biden will isolate to avoid spreading the virus to others, Dr. O’Connor said. Because Mr. Biden isn’t experiencing symptoms this time, Dr. O’Connor said he won’t treat him with Paxlovid again at this time.

    No mention in the article that Fauci had the symptoms come back also, after taking Paxlovid.

    • MM says:

      So you mean something like “permanent positive test” ?
      That would e a relief because it would render this testing thing useless, as it was right from the start.
      And it would be quite difficult to “separate” “positive unvaxxed”. very interesting.

      Actually about a year ago I asked the rhetorical question what should be the sense of testing for a spike protein when a person has been injected with that very spike protein and as we begin to see the production of spike is not going away).

      I start to like the spirals of the c9/11 galaxy!

    • Lastcall says:

      Keeping Biden in the basement any which way they can.
      Stumble, mumble, grumble, sniff. He’s not safe out in public.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “No mention in the article that Fauci had the symptoms come back also, after taking Paxlovid.”

      so two major high profile Paxlovid failures.

      will the sheeple begin to ask questions?

      • MM says:

        You think a sheeple asking a question now could ever catch up with davidinamonthorayearoradecade ?
        So why bother.

        It is as it is.

        • Lastcall says:

          Idiocracy is breathtaking and is the single most alarming outcome of the panic-a-demic.
          The comments I hear at various venues from people sagely nodding their heads to the latest MSM programming makes me realise that we have arrived:

          ‘We’ll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false.”

          • MM says:

            I agree but the thing that bothers me most about this topic is:
            “we all say they are just stupid moarons because we get that message day in day out on the internet but do we really know how many they really are?”
            I do not know. Nobody actually knows.
            I mean, do you really think the people will not become suspicious of the enormous amount of stupidity going on in the world right now?
            I mean it could be true but I do not really see it. The people I talk to all say the same thing “the majority is just stupid” but I do not encounter such a stupid person .ok, some, but you get the point…

            Why is that so?
            Because we sit in front of our computer screens telling us so.
            At least that is what gives me some hope…

      • Fast Eddy says:

        They rely on the MSM to think for them

    • Alex says:

      Hopefully, we will be told he was in close contact with Pelosi and hence she will need to be locked down (or up) to flatten the curve.

    • Rodster says:

      I say give him Remdesivir. He looks half dead already.

  2. Rocky says:

    Oil in the USA is priced in dollars, which have lost their purchasing power over the last 100 years and continue to do so. The price of oil has not necessarily gone up, but the dollars you have went down. Look at inflation overall, this is clear.

    There should be graphs of oil vs other commodities to show that oil is relatively more expensive otherwise the whole theory is moot.

    There is lots of oil, when leaders in n America shut down pipelines and land it’s pretty obvious what is causing the source and supply chain issue, you just need to admit the source.

    • The oil price charts I show are all (or nearly all) in inflation adjusted dollars. So they take inflation into account.

      You are right that there are differences among different commodities in price trends. But there is a definite pattern available. When oil prices are high, other prices tend to be high. This is because oil is so widely used in the economy. High oil prices tend to create high food prices. Also, there is at least some substitutability among fossil fuels. This tends to make prices rise together.

      One thing that makes commodity prices rise is a lot of “demand” created by somehow giving a new group of people the ability to buy more end products made with fossil fuels. Adding China to the world economy when it joined the World Trade Organization in December 2001 was a big factor in raising oil prices.

      In recent months, the run-up in non-fossil fuel commodities (such as copper and steel) has tended to reverse and start falling. This has not happened as much with fossil fuels. Until very recently, natural gas was a whole lot less expensive than oil, when used for heating or making electricity. (Of course, no one would reasonably use oil for these purposes, because this is well known.) Recently, the prices of natural gas and coal have been very high, especially when imported to Europe.

  3. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    He said he and Wg Cdr Henderson, from Dunfermline in Fife, were just 39ft beneath the summit when the accident happened.

    Gave nod to the officer
    They were both about to climb up a crest leading to the top. Mr Cazzanelli said he gave a nod to the RAF officer, indicating that he could go first.

    The Telegraph
    ‘He went head first, without a sound’: RAF officer falls to his death in Himalayas
    Nick Squires
    Thu, July 28, 2022 at 12:44 PM

    Francois Cazzanelli saw RAF Wing Commander Gordon Henderson lose his balance and plunge about 3,300ft into thin air as he tried to reach the top of Broad Peak in the Karakoram mountains, on the border of Pakistan and China.

    Wg Cdr Henderson, a veteran of Afghanistan, was taking part in a British Services Mountaineering Expedition to climb 26,414ft Broad Peak, the 12th highest mountain in the world.

    Mr Cazzanelli, an Italian climber and mountain guide, was also attempting the ascent when he witnessed the tragedy on July 19.

    Which reminds me of the movie Everest…they were that close to the summit…minutes away and the blue collar worker that tried before said We can’t turn back now, this is my last chance, got to reach the summit….bad choice the storm came and they were done for and froze him and the lead..
    Sometimes being that close..ain’t close enough…
    Collapse is just that way….

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      voluntary population reduction is good…

      and entertaining.

    • Xabier says:

      As the coroner observed when another British soldier fell off a mountain some years ago:

      ‘The family may find some comfort that he died doing what he liked best’.

      His climbing companion, a friend of mine, thought ‘He didn’t like falling off bloody mountains!’

      A dramatic – and in a way beautiful – exit from a collapsing world, surely?

      • drb753 says:

        I bet he flew to the Himalayas, burning his yearly quota of kerosene and much more. He died wasting non renewable resources. He did like that best. Joe Sensitive

    • fromoasa says:

      What is the point of all these people climbing Everest when it’s already been done before?

      And do the authorities over there not have a Department of Health and Safety? It’s high time they built a Stairway to Heaven so those whiteys can get to the top safely without falling off. If not, the CIA should declare the relevant countries to be terrorist states and do a 9/11 on Mount Everest.

      • Lastcall says:

        Its not fair that this mountain is the highest; Lets just randomly re-allocate the title each year so every mountain gets a turn.
        Its white on top I bet!
        How about some rainbow mountains get their turn!
        I vote for a green one next.

        • fromoasa says:

          Excellent idea. The Indian and Nepalese authorities just use Everest as a vanity boasting project. The whole of that mountain is just going to waste. Instead it ought to be used for the common good of humanity. What we need is for a billionaire architect-builder to hollow Everest out and turn it into a luxury shopping mall – the tallest in the world. We could call it “The Hall of the Mountain King”. Hundreds of millions of Indians wake up every morning, just longing to go luxury shopping but they’ve never had the opportunity. We could give them it and induct them into the joys of high consumerism.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        They don’t actually climb … they walk up … at least that’s the route most of the clowns take…

        They do it so they can brag about it – same reason most people go to the Antarctic – and why it’s one place I refuse to go — trapped on a boat with wankers like this would do my head in

  4. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    It’s Official
    Reinfection, severe outcome more common with BA.5 variant; virus spike protein toxic to heart cells
    Nancy Lapid
    Thu, July 28, 2022 at 4:24 PM
    (Reuters) — The following is a summary of some recent studies on COVID-19. They include research that warrants further study to corroborate the findings and that has yet to be certified by peer review.

    Reinfections, severe outcomes may be more common with BA.5
    Compared with the earlier Omicron BA.2 subvariant, currently dominant Omicron BA.5 is linked with higher odds of causing a second SARS-COV-2 infection regardless of vaccination status, a study from Portugal suggests.
    Virus spike protein damages heart muscle cells
    The spike protein on its surface that the coronavirus uses to break into heart muscle cells also triggers a damaging attack from the immune system, according to new research.

    The SARS-CoV-2 spike protein interacts with other proteins in cardiac myocytes to cause inflammation, researchers said on Wednesday in a presentation at the American Heart Association’s Basic Cardiovascular Sciences Scientific Sessions 2022. In experiments with mice hearts, comparing the effects of SARS-CoV2 spike proteins and spike proteins from a different, relatively harmless coronavirus, the researchers found that only the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein caused heart dysfunction, enlargement, and inflammation. Further, they found, in infected heart muscle cells only the SARS-CoV-2 spike interacted with so-called TLR4 proteins (Toll-like receptor-4) that recognize invaders and trigger inflammatory responses. In a deceased patient with COVID-19 inflammation, the researchers found the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and TLR4 protein in both heart muscle cells and other cell types. Both were absent in a biopsy of a healthy human heart.

    “That means once the heart is infected with SARS-CoV-2, it will activate the TLR4 signaling,” Zhiqiang Lin of the Masonic Medical Research Institute in Utica, New York said in a statement. “We provided direct evidence that spike protein is toxic to the heart muscle cells and narrowed down the underlying mechanism as spike protein directly inflames the heart muscle cells,” he told Reuters. “More work is being done in my lab to test whether and how spike protein kills heart muscle cells.” Fast Eddie need not harp about it any longer..the MSM is no longer covering it up any longer.
    It’s out in the open for all to know about…but of course, there needs to be done..just to be certain…like with CC…smoking and lung cancer ect…can’t be too sure, can we now?

    • ivanislav says:

      I’m trying to find the original sources that say the virus causes heart damage. So far what I found indicates that they performed a non-physiologically-relevant experiment more akin to what might happen from vaccination.

      I found a Reuter’s article that says:

      “The SARS-CoV-2 spike protein interacts with other proteins in cardiac myocytes to cause inflammation, researchers said on Wednesday in a presentation at the American Heart Association’s Basic Cardiovascular Sciences Scientific Sessions 2022”

      Following the link to the presentation shows that they expressed the spike protein in the heart cells, which isn’t what happens during the normal course of infection:!/10610/presentation/422

      Presentation title: “Selectively Expressing Sars-Cov-2 Spike Protein S1 Subunit In Cardiomyocytes Induces Cardiac Hypertrophy In Mice”

      Relevant part of the abstract:
      “To investigate the possible pathological role of CoV-2-S1 in the heart, we generated constructs that express membrane-localized CoV-2-S1 […] selective expression of the S1-TM […] in [cardiomyocytes] caused heart dysfunction, induced hypertrophic remodeling, and elicited cardiac inflammation.”

    • Strangely enough, when I look at the preprint article that the Reuters article is based on, there seems to be little connection between what is said in the Reuters article, compared to what is in the preprint. It does talk about BA.5 having more severe outcomes than BA.2, but I had a hard time seeing much about the spike protein or impact on the heart.

      This is a link to the preprint:

      The Findings section of the medrvix article reports:

      Between April 25 and June 10, 2022, within a total of 27702 collected samples, 55.5% were classified as BA.2 and the remaining as BA.5. We observed no evidence of reduced vaccine effectiveness for the primary complete vaccination (OR=1.07, CI95%:0.93-1.23) or booster dose vaccination (OR=0.96, CI95%:0.84-1.09) against BA.5 infection compared with BA.2. The protection against reinfection was inferior in BA.5 cases when compared with BA.2 (OR=1.44; CI95%:1.30-1.60). Among those infected with BA.5, booster vaccination was associated with 77% and 88% of reduction in risk of COVID-19 hospitalization and death, respectively, while higher risk reduction was found for BA.2 cases, with 93% and 94%, respectively.

      The Conclusion of the report is:

      Our results suggest that higher immune evasion of BA.5 might explain the surge in cases seen in countries with high BA.5 prevalence. The substantial difference in risk reduction associated with boosted vaccination between BA.5 and BA.2 emphasizes the importance of high vaccination coverage to prevent severe COVID-19 associated outcomes.

      Thus, the study, as written, is a study encouraging the use of boosters. The study only compares boosted to unboosted. There is data given on unvaccinated, but the sample is deemed to be too small to be considered. I expect the group has a much different age distribution.

      The Reuters article discusses quotes from the researchers, related to what they saw in the study. The connection between these quotes and what is actually in the preprint seems to be quite distant. In my view, the Reuters article talks about things that the researchers, talking off the cuff, would like to have said in their report, but figured that they could not, because it would never get published. I am surprised, too, that Reuters chose to write it up.

      Maybe others looking at the preprint will find more in it than I did.

      • Oddys says:

        Its still very much about the definition of “vaccinated”. As long as they define people as “unnvaccinated” until 3 weeks after the second shot it is fraud and scientific misconduct.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      And the solution – a new and improved vax is on the way launching in Autumn

  5. postkey says:

    The U.K. is ‘saved’?
    “Britain will soon have a glut of cheap power, and world-leading batteries to store it
    Trailblazing Britain is leading the most ambitious rollout of offshore wind in the world”

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      It is looks like the usual rubbish that we have come to expect on all matters from the British press.

      The article makes the following claim:

      “Wind and solar provided almost 60pc of the UK’s power for substantial stretches last weekend, briefly peaking at 66pc. This is not to make a propaganda point about green energy, although this home-made power is self-evidently displacing liquefied natural gas (LNG) imported right now at nosebleed prices.”

      60%…. for a few hours…. but this is ‘NOT propaganda’….

      In fact, renewables of all kinds provide about 6% of UK energy USE.

      “As of December 2020, renewable sources generated 40.2% of the electricity produced in the UK;[2] around 6% of total UK energy usage.”

      This article is about a start up making a pitch and without any critical analysis by anyone who actually knows what they are talking about… a complete waste of time.

  6. Student says:

    Vogue – fashion

    I wonder if anyone in this blog has already noticed that Zelensky’s wife has just found the time, between a bomb and a strafed, to make a shooting for the famous fashion magazine called ‘Vogue’.
    In this era of manipulation, it is interesting to think how fashion, glamour, war, famine and deaths go hand-in-hand…,c_limit/VO1022_FirstLady_05.jpg

  7. Tim Groves says:

    They say Prudence never pays, but she’s really shelling out now. Kidney cancer at age 39.

    And of course, she’s a cheerleader for the jabs, or it wouldn’t be cause for schadenfreude.

    Prue Car: 39-year-old Australian MP takes leave of absence after “shocking” post-injection kidney cancer diagnosis

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      this is a Wonderous Story.

      you surely remember Instant Karma (the drummer Alan White RIP).

      the vaccines are giving us Nearly Instant Karma.

      Dear Prudence, thanks for everything.

      soon enough, may you RIP.

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        “better get yourself together darling
        pretty soon you’re gonna be dead” – John Lennon

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I was gonna have only one cup of wine … but after reading this … I’ll celebrate with another

        I truly hope she suffers… she deserves to be … Punished!


  8. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    Extra Extra, Fast Eddie and Professor Dr. Guy McPherson are in agreement!

    Edge of Extinction: Collapse is NOT Survivable
    16,370 views · 6 months ago

    Edge of Extinction: Collapse is NOT Survivable

    Believe it or not…BOTH did the same!!! Both took up Homesteading and Prepping. Both, after spending a vast sum of time and money came to the same conclusion…without BAU it is a futile endeavor. BOTH point to the nuclear spent fuel rods meltdown as the icing on the cake to extinction!
    And BOTH are on a Crusade to warn MOREONS (general public) about how close we are to the finale curtain call.

    Now, are we living in a Twilight Zone?

    • Guy McPherson has been saying something similar for a long time.

      • Herbie Ficklestein says:

        Thank you, Yes BOTH have been warning us all that for a long time!

      • Artleads says:

        Guy *did* adjust his end date from 2030 to 2050, quite a difference.

        • Herbie Ficklestein says:

          Yes, for many unfortunate souls, that has occurred already…not of the BAU core and perhaps better off dead than just holding on!

          One-half of all poor people are ‘destitute’, suggests new research

          An Oxford University study to identify the multidimensionally poor in the developing world has found that in 49 countries half of the poor are so deprived that they should be classed as ‘destitute’. The researchers’ global multidimensional poverty index or MPI measures overlapping deprivations in health, education and living standards, with the ‘destitute’ experiencing extreme deprivation. This latter group is defined according to more extreme criteria such as having lost two children, having someone who is severely malnourished at home, or having no assets at all.

          The study highlights the fact that, despite the situation improving for many due to poverty reduction programmes and economic growth, there is still a formidable core of extremely poor people. This finding has implications for an international goal of eliminating poverty, widely mooted as achievable by 2030. The largest numbers of destitute people, 420 million, were found in the countries of South Asia: in India alone, drawing on the most recent official figures available, the Oxford researchers calculate there were around 343 million destitute people. 200 million destitute people were found in 24 countries of Sub-Saharan Africa: the highest proportion of destitute people was found in Niger in where over two-thirds (68.8%) of the population were considered destitute.

          ……A destitute person in the new study is MPI-poor, and is also deprived in a third or more of the same weighted indicators, according to more extreme criteria: for example, where no one in the household has completed at least one year of schooling; or two or more children in the household have died. Two-thirds of destitute people have someone at home with severe malnutrition. Some 40% of the destitute have a round trip of 45 minutes to find safe water by foot, if they have access to it at all. Over 80% have a dirt floor, and more than 90% have no proper sanitation and have to relieve themselves outside, with all the vulnerability, fear and shame this entails, particularly for women.

          • We don’t think of the destitute much. This “is defined according to more extreme criteria [than poor] such as having lost two children, having someone who is severely malnourished at home, or having no assets at all.

            The linked article is 2014. I am sure that the situation is worse now. Maybe over half of poor people are still destitute, but the share of poor people has risen since 2014. The population has risen since 2014 in most of the countries where the destitute live, also.

          • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

            the joke of the day:

            “This finding has implications for an international goal of eliminating poverty, widely mooted as achievable by 2030.”

            don’t tell them:

            more poverty is inevitable.

            the only way to eliminate poverty: extinction.

            • Reaching 100% renewable energy seems to work a similar way. When total energy is very close to zero, then it can be 100% renewable–basically what the hunters and gatherers used.

            • MM says:

              So the goal is perfectly achievalble. I see no problem here.
              The EU will consume 15% less energy in 2023?
              Of course, because there will be 15% less consumers of energy.

              Nobody is actuallly lying here, you stoopid CT’ist!

    • Artleads says:

      Well BAU is hanging on for now. I see no call to pry (sp) its fingers away from what it’s hanging on to. It may find use for our moderate support, as well as our pitching in to fill in gaps in the system. But maybe I’m wrong there. I’ve done a lot of filling in potholes where I live. I’d fill them in and run my car back and forth as a roller. It’s a stick shift, and that treatment seems to have given me terrible arthritis pain. So enough of that! Then again, it’s not a matter of succeeding at anything. You set an example then fall by the wayside. Someone else saw the example and could choose to make something of it. I suppose a self organizing system uses everything, obvious or subtle. It is far more evolved than merer humans are, so we can’t conclude for certain where it’s heading next.

      • MM says:

        In a cyclical time of boom and bust , you are only unlucky because now you are stuck in the downward phase.
        It is as it is.

    • NomadicBeer says:

      Guy McPherson went from honest craziness to corrupt influencer.

      He started as a believer in short term extinction. He left his well-paid university job and moved in the middle of the desert in a hippy farm. I had my doubts about his tthinking (what kind of an ecologist chooses to live in the desert?) but he was honest – and got attacked for it.

      Now he is obsessed with media, craving attention and willing to do anything for it – he sold all his principles.
      Did you know that a couple of years back he was involved in an MIT scheme to cover to ocean with white plastic balls?

      So please tell me why I should listen to him?

    • Alex says:

      I see, the fearsome guy no longer sports a covid face mask in his extinction videos. Now he really means it.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        He wore a mask??? Hhahaha what a tosster!!!

        I thought Guy had committed soosiside… he should as penance for being completely wrong for years hhahahaha

        Who want’s to check out Leo’s seaside concrete eco lodge – I have photos!

      • Fast Eddy says:

        You have to wonder after being wrong for so long do you eventually realize you are a f789ing i diot?

    • Minority of One says:

      “Argentina’s economy has collapsed. Around 57% of adults in the nation are currently unemployed.”


      • Someone should start keeping track of all the countries that collapse and the dates that this happen. Of course, some criterion of collapse would be needed.

        • NomadicBeer says:

          We have a natural criterion for collapse – when the countries fall off the internet and we don’t hear anything from them.

          I guess there are a couple of countries in Africa (Somalia?)
          collapsed already. N. Korea is close but they are still being talked about and they still receive food aid. When that stop, I bet we won’t hear anything from them anymore.

          My bet is by 2030 we will have many more – including countries in Europe, some in S. America and who knows? Maybe one of the Aus, NZ, Can.

        • Xabier says:

          Unemployment is a tricky indicator, due to people moving to the ‘black’ economy and surviving well enough on that.

          And, strictly speaking, ‘collapse’ means dropping from one level of complexity to a lower one, not just more poverty, depopulation, disease, unemployment, disorder, war, etc.

          The Roman province of Britannia saw a true collapse – a universal loss of complexity – but a peasant in this village in 500 AD might have been living just as well as under the Romans, or back home in Continental Europe, if not better.

  9. Fast Eddy says:

    Browsing through Telegram and Substack comments and the anxiety and trepidation over ‘what comes next’ is intense…

    The problem is … they are unaware of the energy issues… so they are grasping onto a wide range of illogical explanations for what is happening to them… confusion reigns…

    If only they could realize that we are running out of affordable energy and resources… that would remove the stress from their lives….

    Then they’d just be resigned to the fact that they’ll be dead — likely in Q4…. it will either be ROF or UEP…

    Sure there’s a bit of despair when one first realizes this… but acceptance comes swiftly .. and it removes all the confusion … no cheap oil – no more life.. that’s a very uncomplicated equation.

    • D. Stevens says:

      What happens if you mention energy to these people looking for answers? I see lots of WHY!? questions on Reddit and ZeroHedge and anytime I mention limits or supply issue I’m down voted into oblivion. The world being finite or that we might be reaching geological limits is dismissed out of hand despite lots of evidence that we’re past peak energy. Most people don’t even question what’s going on but even those who sense something is seriously wrong can’t accept energy as the answer. Everyone has a huge blind spot when it comes to energy and it feels hopeless. I must be missing the optimism bias part of the brain and it’s probably for the best most people can’t see this because I don’t think they could handle the dread and despair it can bring.

      • MM says:

        Accepting the energy predicament could imply that the UEP is a reasonable thing to do (*cough*).
        THAT is definitively too much to grasp amid the current horror show.

      • Xabier says:

        These people are simply totally detached from physical reality: select, cut, haul and split your own firewood – as I do – and cycles of growth, and energy limits, are no puzzle at all!

        There are so many idiots out there now who decry soil depletion, over-population, over-pollution and hard energy limits as cynical lies put out by TPTB and the WEF to justify genocide.

        There is no hope for them.

        • NomadicBeer says:

          Xabier – I empathize.

          I grew up in a poor country where most people lived like in the 19th century. Even people in cities kept chicken and pigs. I would say that most of us understood the cycles of nature.

          But, here is the weird thing. A couple of decades of westernization, with cellphones and cars and buying on credit was enough to make most people forget everything about nature or limits.

          To me that speaks about the power and ubiquitousness of propaganda but also of the desire of people to see the world in simple terms. Evolutionarily, thinking it’s an expensive feature so if you can survive and thrive without it, discarding it is the best short term choice.

          There is also some good news – I would guess between 1 and 10% of the population is trying to quit the ratrace and go back to traditional ways of living. 5% of the population moved back to the countryside during the panicdemic and started growing things again.

          Given the expected die-off and being cynical, I think 10% is more than enough so we shouldn’t even try to convince the rest. If they are right, they will enjoy eternity in the virtual world while we toil the soil. If they are wrong, well, SADS is not so bad is it?

          • MM says:

            Very well said.
            You either jump ship or you stay on the Titanic, your choice, but don’t you knock on my door….

          • Xabier says:

            Eastern Europe I presume?

            I’m sure that, even if it doesn’t work out for them, those who moved from the cities at least currently feel purposeful, in charge of their lives and therefore happier.

            The thing about manual work is the calculation of personal energy expended – and wear and tear of tools – against gain:

            I can cut that difficult twisted log with extra effort, but that means less time spent on easier ones, getting more tired and needing more dinner at the end of the day, etc. Worth it?

            It’s cold, but cold enough to be worth burning precious fuel? Can it be endured a bit longer? Worth the loss of that extra fuel for use on an even nastier day, when I might also be injured or sick?

            In retrospect I understood so little of reality when like everyone else I just flicked a switch (and still do of course).

      • Fast Eddy says:

        As we know – it is impossible to extract 99.999999999999999% of people from a mass psychosis.

        It is futile. Fact and logic don’t matter

        Right norm?

  10. Fast Eddy says:

    Dr Ryan Cole. The World Has Been Spiked
    Detailed and concise exposition of the spike protein poisoning of mankind by injection.

    Thank you for receiving this newsletter.

    Dr Cole is unquestionably one of the world’s top experts on the effects of the so-called covid “vaccines” on the human body. He is a devote pathologist who has been studying this intensely through the microscope. Here is his exceptional up-to-date exposition of the details which he presented to the General Assembly of the World Council for Health 4 days ago on July 25th, 2022.

    Drs Pierre Kory and Paul Marik are world experts on treating this poisoning; they join Dr Cole in the Q and A that follows. Dr Marik reveals the next big step in saving our injected friends and family: autophagy.

    • This is a write up of helpful background and advice. For example, I found this:

      Spike Protein Inhibitors: Prunella vulgaris, pine needles, emodin, neem, dandelion leaf extract, ivermectin

      Spike Protein Neutralizers: N-acetylcysteine (NAC), glutathione, fennel tea, star anise tea, pine needle tea, St. John’s wort, comfrey leaf, vitamin C

      Ivermectin has been shown to bind to the spike protein, potentially rendering it ineffective in binding to the cell membrane.

      Several plants found in nature, including pine needles, fennel, star anise, St. John’s wort, and comfrey leaf, contain a substance called shikimic acid, which may help to neutralize the spike protein. Shikimic acid may help to reduce several possible damaging effects of the spike protein, and is believed to counteract blood clot formation.

      Regular oral doses of vitamin C are useful in neutralizing any toxin.

      Pine needle tea has powerful antioxidant effects and contain high concentrations of vitamin C.

      Nattokinase (see Table 1), an enzyme derived from the Japanese soybean dish ‘Natto’, is a natural substance whose properties may help to reduce the occurrence of blood clots.

      There quite a few links and sub-links in the material.

  11. Fast Eddy says:

    From a Midwest 911 Dispatcher…

    Florida Surgeon General, Dr. Joe Ladapo: “How can you force people to take a vaccine to stop transmission when that vaccine is not effective at stopping transmission?”

    Covid shots make Thalidomide look like Flintstone Vitamins
    Obstetrician, Gynecologist, and Researcher Dr Thorp is sounding the alarm.

    Clinical observation and data from around the world reveal massive harms from the misrepresented covid “vaccines”. This is especially true in pregnant and breastfeeding women, and all women of childbearing age or younger. There is nothing subtle about it. For instance these injections are more effective (93%) at triggering an abortion than the abortion pill itself. Infant death and disease, as well as sterilization of women from these injections is dramatic.

    Governments and medical regulators continue ignoring the data, and push the vaccines, even in pregnancy. They are committing major crimes against humanity.

    There is no need to take this emergency doctor´s word for it. Please allow world class obstetrician, gynecologist, and researcher Dr Thorp explain:

  12. Fast Eddy says:

    This interview reveals a Jordan Peterson well down the rabbit hole.
    I wondered if he was ever going to speak in such accusatory terms. He has.
    Best wishes

    YouTube (
    The Horseman Cometh | Michael Yon and Dr Jordan B Peterson
    We are heading into one of the most epic famines in world history, where the poor will freeze in the dark and burn in the sun while they starve.

    • Kowalainen says:

      JBP’s Traditionalist utopia is a nostalgia trip back to the 50’s. Which in itself wouldn’t be problematic given the energy and population situation of that decade.


  13. Fast Eddy says:

    bla bla bla

    China’s Army posts “Get ready for war!” message over US visit to Taiwan

    “Get ready for war!” read a message posted by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) 80th Group over the US visit to Taiwan, as reported on Friday, July 29.

    China’s Army’s war message over the potential US visit to Taiwan reportedly generated over 300,000 thumbs-up in just 12 hours, creating “high morale among Chinese soldiers” according to Global Times.
    The message was posted on China’s social network Weibo”

  14. Fast Eddy says:

    Another level? Burning some hay on the side of the road???

    Dutch Farmers Have Stepped Up Their Game, They’re Taking Their Protests to Another Level

    “On Wednesday, Dutch farmers sent a clear message to their government. They will not acquiesce. They will not give up their land. The farmers are protesting because the Netherlands government wants to impose new climate goals of reducing nitrogen output by 2030, which will force farmers out of business. “We the Dutch Farmers are fighting…”

    • Hubbs says:

      Soon to revisit the Boer farmer tactics from the Boer Wars in S Africa in the late 1800s?

      (Denmark vs Netherlands-sorry OFW, I keep confusing the two so, I have to spell it out for myself here for the nth time because I am getting old, crusty, and forgetful. Dutch is a Germanic language spoken by most in the Netherlands. Danish people are from Denmark and speak Danish. Holland is a province on the coast of the Netherlands. The Boers are Afrikaans who are descendants of the Dutch and settled The Cape Region in the 16-1700s. “Boer” means “farmer” in both Dutch and Afrikaan language.

      The Boers were never really defeated by the British. Boers engaged in commando raids, and as far as I know (from my favorite movie “Breaker Morant”) the term “commando” was first used. A modern day version of Viking raids- living off the land through stealing and blunder, mining the British rails and blowing up the trains.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I’ve had a pretty close look at the Boer War – and they were soundly defeated….

        Initially their tactics of ambush were stitching up the Brits … and the response was to deny the fighters support from their communities — they rounded up all the Boers and stuffed them into concentration camps abusing them and sexually assaulting the women … keeping them on the verge of starvation….

        The fighters – denied their sources of food and gear … and seeing their families held hostage … eventually gave up the fight.

        This is what happens when you are willing to do ‘whatever it takes’…. this is Machiavelli at work… this is Kurtz…

        “I’ve seen horrors… horrors that you’ve seen. But you have no right to call me a murderer. You have a right to kill me. You have a right to do that… but you have no right to judge me. It’s impossible for words to describe what is necessary to those who do not know what horror means. Horror. Horror has a face… and you must make a friend of horror. Horror and moral terror are your friends. If they are not then they are enemies to be feared. They are truly enemies.

        I remember when I was with Special Forces. Seems a thousand centuries ago. We went into a camp to inoculate the children. We left the camp after we had inoculated the children for Polio, and this old man came running after us and he was crying. He couldn’t see. We went back there and they had come and hacked off every inoculated arm. There they were in a pile. A pile of little arms. And I remember… I… I… I cried. I wept like some grandmother. I wanted to tear my teeth out. I didn’t know what I wanted to do. And I want to remember it.

        I never want to forget it. I never want to forget. And then I realized… like I was shot… like I was shot with a diamond… a diamond bullet right through my forehead. And I thought: My God… the genius of that. The genius. The will to do that. Perfect, genuine, complete, crystalline, pure. And then I realized they were stronger than we. Because they could stand that these were not monsters.

        These were men… trained cadres. These men who fought with their hearts, who had families, who had children, who were filled with love… but they had the strength… the strength… to do that.

        One can rant and rave and scream but that’s not fair!!! The Palestinians do it all the time…

        But at the end of the day … might is right … and the winner writes the history

        • GBV says:

          Love that scene (or at least the dialogue) from Apocalypse Now – it’s one of my favorites, and it always made me think about how people hide behind morality and judgment (good vs bad / right vs wrong / etc.).

          If there are to be survivors of humanity after your UEP, I suspect they’ll have to be the type of people Kurtz described: those filled with love, but willing to make a friend of horror and mortal terror to preserve what is important to them… at any cost.


    • MM says:

      Sorry guys, as long as you wave the dutch flag, I will not take you serious.
      Applies to Sri Lanka


  15. Fast Eddy says:

    Ontario doctor, 27 years old, dies after collapsing during triathlon

    • Rodster says:

      Because the vaccines are safe and effective. He would have died much sooner if not for the vaccines. 😜

  16. davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    well if a country wants to “sanction” itself into acute shortages, then by all means go for it.

    they could probably turn to corn cobs.

    “substitution” as the so-called economists would say.

    2022 just keeps on giving.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      Russia trrolls the West ha!

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        don’t delay… Winter is Coming.

      • MG says:

        Unfortunately, the winter in Russia is really hard. The clmt chng makes the winters in the West milder.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Ya Russia is immune to change… so is Leo’s island.

          • MG says:


            “Russia’s climate
            The most well known feature of the Russian climate is its very cold winter, brought about by the country’s high latitudes (40-75°N), vast land mass and lack of any topographic obstructions to protect it from arctic winds sweeping across its long, north-facing and often frozen coastline. The country is bounded by high mountains along its southern and eastern flank but the west is exposed to occasional winter incursions of milder Atlantic air, so that winters become progressively more severe eastwards (10).”

          • Herbie Ficklestein says:

            No so for the Queen!
            Sea levels have risen by around 16.5cm (6.5 ins) since 1900, but the Met Office says the rate of rise is increasing. They are now rising by 3-5.2mm a year, which is more than double the rate of increase in the early part of last century.
            Climate change: UK sea level rise speeding up – Met Office
            Georgina Rannard – BBC Climate & Science

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Yes yes… the BBC says so!!!

              The BBC also says Covid vaccines safe and effective — the BBC also says that fluffing a duvet is causing all these heart attacks.

              All hail the BBC! All hail CNN! – self-proclaimed trusted sources of information!!!

              hahaha you are being ridiculous

      • drb753 says:

        I am sure Fast Eddy is interested in some of the details, but think of the 60M!

  17. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    We got way too many people!!!
    ‘We absolutely have too many people’: Ford ready to wield the axe as U.S. economy slips into technical recession
    Christiaan Hetzner
    Thu, July 28, 2022 at 10:11 AM

    Facing costly investments in electric vehicles, U.S. carmakers are following Tesla’s lead by laying off staff as the U.S. economy slipped into a technical recession.

    On Wednesday, Ford chief executive Jim Farley confirmed he was looking to reduce headcount in its legacy combustion engine business to fund the transformation to EVs and keep pace with Tesla as much as possible.

    “We absolutely have too many people in some places, no doubt about it,” the Ford boss told analysts after the company posted second-quarter results.

    “We have skills that don’t work anymore, and we have jobs that need to change.”

    Farley’s comments come after Bloomberg reported last week he is preparing to cut as many as 8,000 salaried workers, primarily at his Ford Blue legacy car business, and preceded news on Thursday that U.S. gross domestic output shrank by nearly 1% in the second quarter.

    This means the U.S. meets the definition of a technical recession of two quarterly contractions in a row.

    While tech companies have recently made headlines with news of staff cuts and hiring freezes, workforce reductions in the auto industry are disproportionately more damaging to the economy.

    Including suppliers, dealers and other associated businesses, carmakers support an estimated 10.3 million American jobs, or about 8% of all private-sector employment, according to U.S. trade group Alliance for Automotive Innovation.

    Yeah, they see the writing on the wall alright…got to pretend that we have a Plan B

    Paul McCartney and Wings …Too Many People

    My favorite tube by them!

  18. MG says:

    North Korea is a laboratory of human greed

    It is no wonder that with the population growth, the need for new soil becomes a serious problem and the militarisation of the country is practically the only solution: let’s get some new soil from our neighbours

    I recall those pictures of the 19th century depicting my part of the Austria Hungary empire: yellowish fields everywhere

    It is no wonder that WW1 was initiated by Austria Hungary where the population growth degraded the land.

    The degradation of the environment is the last stage of the energy poverty. The advent of oil and comming of the ICE vehicles allowed for the revitalisation of the land, bringing other nutrients than the cheap nitrogen.

    The era of coal was characterized by the trains on the rails which could not do that task.

    • MG says:

      This is as also the answer to the question why the partnership of the mild clmt countries with the hot countries that have oil and need food is most advantageous and why the partnership with Russia fails: they need more than just natural gas.

  19. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    George Glover
    Thu, July 28, 2022 at 8:05 AM
    Nord Stream
    Russia is choking off Europe’s natural gas supply, cutting the capacity of its Nord Stream 1 pipeline 20%.Christian Charisius/Reuters
    Russia is choking off Europe’s natural gas supply, cutting the flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 20%.

    Gas prices finally eased Thursday after 6 days of gains, but have soared 145% since the start of June.

    Europe’s energy crisis could last until 2025, according to Goldman Sachs strategists.

    Europe’s natural gas prices finally eased on Thursday after six straight days of gains, but the continent’s energy crisis is likely to last until 2025, according to Goldman Sachs.

    Benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas futures eased 0.35% to below 205 euros ($207) per megawatt hour on Thursday after soaring nearly a third over the past week and 145% since the start of June.

    The crisis has been driven by Russia, which cut flows of gas through the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline to 20% of capacity in an attempt to undermine its political opponents as the war in Ukraine continues.

    Goldman Sachs strategists said it could take years for heavily-reliant countries such as Germany to make up for the natural gas shortfall.

    “We expect European gas prices will ultimately be driven higher once again during summer 2023, as price-driven demand destruction becomes top of mind once more,” a team led by the bank’s head of natural gas research Samantha Dart said in a recent research note. “A more sustained lower-price environment is not likely in Europe in our view until 2025.”

    Nord Stream 1 is a 759-mile pipeline that supplies Germany with around 26% of its gas imports, according to BBC News. Germany suspended certification of a second Nord Stream pipeline in February as Russia prepared to invade Ukraine.

    Russian president Vladimir Putin announced last week that Nord Stream 1’s capacity would fall to 20% as it waits to re-install a repaired turbine that has been shipped over from Canada.

    “While we expect Nord Stream 1 flows to be restored back to a 40% run rate once the repaired turbine is in place, we believe Russian supply uncertainty remains high,” Goldman Sachs strategists said

    We believe in uncertainty….boy, and Goldman pays strategists for this!???

  20. Adonis says:

    What if the elders made a plan and that plan was UEP the elders had also created an elaborate underground city so they could survive the spent fuel pools going off the plan being to have a managed collapse whilst preserving what fossil fuels are still left under the guise of a fake climate change narrative.

    • Herbie Ficklestein says:

      Some fake CC….sure is making a believer out of many now, Adios…
      That’s OK, like Gail has stressed many times here…it’s outta of our hands regardless of the reason(s)..
      The Climate has changed and is changing throughout Earth’s past and will continue to do so with or without the people…

      Earth’s climate has changed throughout history. Just in the last 800,000 years, there have been eight cycles of ice ages and warmer periods, with the end of the last ice age about 11,700 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era — and of human civilization. › evidence
      Vital Signs of the Planet – Evidence | Facts – Climate Change's%20climate%20has%20changed%20throughout%20history.,era%20%E2%80%94%20and%20of%20human%20civilization.

      Fires, floods and drought: Scenes of extreme weather from space
      Satellite imagery reveals a superheated planet that’s ablaze, swamped and desiccated
      Image without a caption
      By Matthew Cappucci
      July 27, 2022 at 1:31 p.m. EDT

    • Rodster says:

      Okay, so what happens after they eat all of their food and drink their expensive wine? Eventually they’ll run out of food and water. So they rise out of their fallout bunkers to a world where people are sick from radioactive contamination and dying and the ground is contaminated. Now what?

      Are they going to be able to know how to grow food and process water so it’s drinkable? I think they are f789ed. They’ll just have a little extra time before they too become human fertilizer.

    • postkey says:

      “Joe Neubarth
      26 July at 17:42
      For those people who do not know what is going to happen in the next few years, the vast majority of filthy rich Republicans have built underground shelters stocked with food and water as well as lots of alcohol to party with. They do not intend to stay underground for long, as they plan on using Nuclear Weapons to blast Dirt, Dust and Sulfur from dormant volcanoes at high latitudes such as from the Aleutian Islands and mainland Alaska. I have never heard of any mention of Russian Volcanoes. I have been told by others that volcanos at the southern tip of South America may also be used.

      The Dirt, Dust and Sulfur will create a nuclear winter that will last 14 to 16 months, last I heard. The Rich will come out of their shelters anytime during the Nuclear Winter, though it would be best to stay underground for at least a few days after the modern Nuclear Bomb Blasts in the dormant volcanoes. Since the modern Nukes are Fusion weapons as opposed to mainly Fission weapons as tested and used during and after WWII, the radiation intensity should be abated within a week or so.

      Meanwhile, the people who do not have shelters will gradually die from the cold and the Republican goal of reducing global population to below half a billion as specified on the Georgia Guidestones (Preferably less than 300 million people as the Rich Republicans now tell me) will become a reality.

      When the Nuclear Winter wanes, green life will start growing abundantly. The tremendous Green Growth will suck a lot of CO2 out of the atmosphere. Since factories will not be in operation CO2 generation from industry will be a thing of memory. With Billions of people and animals gone, the release of CO2 from animals will also greatly decrease. The Nuclear Winter will have slowed down the release of methane from the melting permafrost. With CO2 decreasing and Methane slowing in its release rate from the permafrost, the climate will come back down to temperatures that were common 20 years ago.

      Slowly, temperatures will go down to levels from a century ago. No factories and few people and large animal herds will be gone. If you are a Rich Republican you will rejoice at your good fortune. If you are not rich but alive, the Republicans might enslave you for manual labor, but do not expect any favors. You will just be slave labor and expendable at any time.”

      • JesseJames says:

        I agree…those filthy rich Republicans are the problem….Zuckerberg, Bezos, Soros, Pelosi, Biden, google CEOs/founders….by gosh, I am surprised a democrat even gets elected anywhere.

    • MM says:

      Yes, but that was the old strategy from the cold war:
      Yell them into their bunkers and then bust these bunkers with the big sticks.
      The cities will stay intact for a prosperous future.

  21. CTG says:

    For those who don’t believe in divisive politics in USA …

    You can ignore reality but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality. I never knew we (humans) can come to this stage

  22. CTG says:

    The characteristics of critical thinkers

    1. Don’t accept anything on face value
    2. Do your own research and not based on the links provided by others. Research all view points
    3. Think hard and try to prove/disprove it
    4. Come to a conclusion.
    5. If new evidence comes out to the contrary, change your viewpoint again.
    6. Never defend your viewpoint especially if it is wrong.
    7. Open to ideas even if it goes against your ideals or beliefs. See if you were wrong all the time.

    This final point is so difficult to achieve for many in USA because divisive politics have achieved its aim. If I am “left”, all the “rights” are wrong. t is as plain as day for us outside of USA.

    15 years ago, I wanted to be a prepper though I know my wife will never agree. I was thinking of a remote place and do my farming and living like a hermit. I sat down and thought hard. I need shoes, clothes, knowledge of farming, seeds, hunting skills are not existence. Arghh… to many things are from BAU and I have no idea at all how to go about it. Then I went to do some research on local natives who were in Malaysia for hundreds or perhaps thousands of years. They were all plugged in. Still living remotely but wearing t-shirts and shoes and use motorcycles. They have the skills of foraging in the jungle but those were the previous generation people. The new generations do not even want to touch those. So, a vast majority of the knowledge is gone.

    OK. I can store up t-shirts and shoes but eventually when BAU is gone, they will be unobtainable.So, 5 years post collapse, I will not have any shoes or t-shirts. OK. I have to make them. Even if I know, I have to find the right leaves or bark, which I need to tear it out. So, ok, if my axe is blunt or broken or just unusable 5 years post BAU, when can I find an axe or knife? Any obsidian around for me to dig? Oh, I need to have something to dig out the obsidian. Shovel?

    Of the environment is so degraded and I have to walk miles just to get what I want and hope that I don’t get injured because the plant that I need for medicine is so rare now and I can suffer from bacterial infection. Oh, I forgot that I have metal working skills, I do can my own axe but first I must find iron ore (which is already depleted) and coal/charcoal. OK, that is not easy. Wait… I need to start a fire. Darn, my matches were gone 3 years ago and my flint has worn down. I need to find 2 rocks to start my fire.. No problem but hey it rains all the time here in the tropics, how can I find dry grass..

    Oh well, in that situation, what I will do with all my gold and silver?

    I came to the conclusion that anyone who is wearing shoes and t-shirts are not going to survive post BAU. Electricity, internet are just more conveniences.

    Correct me if I am wrong. As a critical thinker, I will change my viewpoint if I am wrong. I don’t defend when I am not correct

    • Fast Eddy says:

      All correct – then there are those nasty ponds….

    • MM says:

      If you manage to not shatter a lens you will be able to make fire with it in 1000 years.

      • CTG says:

        Thanks for the info on the lens. I think you get my point (or the pointlessness of prepping)

        • MM says:

          “A prepper” says it: being one man (or two if you like).
          If you are in a region where everbody lives a self sustaining lifestyle, there is not even any need for prepping at all.
          So in this way you are perfectly right and perfectly wong at the same time.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            You mean like deepest darkest Irian Jaya right? Nobody will come rip up the garden there


            The Ponds.. The ponds… what about the ponds…

    • NomadicBeer says:

      “I came to the conclusion that anyone who is wearing shoes and t-shirts are not going to survive post BAU. …

      Correct me if I am wrong.”

      You are not wrong because the above is nonsense. There are kalahari bushmen or amazon tribes wearing t-shirts because they got them free. Does that mean they won’t survive?

      What about the rich psychopaths that always wear dress shirts and boots? I guess they are the future!

      Read about the Russian family that survived more than 40 years in a northern forest until they were discovered by a geological expedition (and promptly killed by pneumonia since they had no resistance to bacteria). That is a harsh environment but they survived. There will always be some islands (in metaphorical sense) where hardy survivors will live and reproduce. Of course there is a chance that the environmental changes will be harsh enough to select for smaller brains so people will stop being “people”, but that will take many thousands of years.

      I don’t understand why you cannot look at humans with detachment. We are just another monkey that got too successful so of course the population will crash. But being that we are spread in almost every environment on land, there will be some survivors. Of course in a million years or so our species will be gone (or changed beyond recognition).

      Why do we have to make a big emotional story out of this? I don’t see people getting all worked up about the extinction (or not) of rats. Why? (I know, I know).

      • Fast Eddy says:

        The Ponds The Ponds!

        Feel free to continue ignoring this … the thing is… there won’t be ignoring reality when The Ponds cooling water boils off

        The Chernobyl accident was relatively minor, involved no spent fuel ponds, and was controlled by pouring cement onto the reactor. This was breaking down so a few years back they re-entombed.

        Estimates of the cancer burden in Europe from radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident

  23. Mirror on the wall says:

    “With less energy, it will start coming apart.”

    UKR blunders badly in Donbass and cracks open in its final key line of defence – and China publicly offers out USA over Pelosi visit to Taiwan


    • Tim Groves says:

      Thanks for this, Mirror! I listen to Alex and Alex often on the Duran and it’s always fascinating.

      This one-hour monologue by Alexander Mercouris is hot off the press and full of big news about the conflict in Ukraine. And if Alex M is correct, things are really heating up today!!

      Alex M is my favorite commenter on what’s going in in the UK and Europe these days, too. I trust him as much as Norman trusts the BBC.

      Alex also recommends the Military Summary channel, which I watch every day. Let me leave a link to that.

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        There is something refreshingly honest about war.

        “This is what I want, and this is what I am going to do to get it. If I am more powerful than you, then I will win and you will lose. That is how the world works.”

        The rest of the time everyone tends to tell narratives, stories about reality in which the outcome that they want is the ‘proper’, ‘right’, ‘true’, ‘legitimate’, ‘good’ outcome.

        The entire ‘moral order’ is a lie, and the narratives rely on most humans being stupid enough to fall for the lies about the structure of reality.

        In fact they have been socially bred for thousands of years in the context of moralistic ideologies and laws, and genetically domesticated to fall for moralistic BS.

        Admittedly states still tend to pretend that their wars are ‘justified’ on moralistic pretexts, so it cannot be said that humanity has fully recovered its freedom, innocence and honesty even in its wars – but it is close enough to be refreshing.

        • Mirror on the wall says:

          “Yum, yum!”

          Nature in its freedom, innocence and honesty….

        • Kowalainen says:

          There’s no arguing with a detonating artillery shell spreading its shockwave and shrapnel.

          The same could be said about enduring winter without gas and electricity. That which isn’t made available can’t be put into use.

          The rapacious primates egotistical fantasies is a well guarded pathology. Thus the only alleviation is the inevitable seven stages of grief toward oblivion.

          However, alleviation isn’t a cure for the root cause of a failed species.

          Extinction is.

  24. hillcountry says:

    Pharmacokinetics and safety of inhaled ivermectin in mice as a potential COVID-19 treatment

    Ivermectin has been shown to clear coronavirus in transfected Vero-hSLAM cells in vitro at concentrations of approximately 5 µM, presumably by preventing nuclear import of the viral RNA through the importin α/β receptor.

    This concentration is equivalent to 4,370 ng/mL, approximately 50–100-fold greater than the peak concentration (Cmax) achieved after a single oral dose of 200 μg/kg (Chaccour et al., 2017).

    Even very high oral doses of ivermectin dosed at 2,000 μg/kg, while demonstrated to be safe, produce Cmax values that are 10–20 times lower than required to attain plasma concentrations of 5 µM (Guzzo et al., 2002).

    Thus, the concern with ivermectin as a therapy for COVID-19 is that it will be difficult to achieve the concentrations of ivermectin demonstrated to be necessary to inhibit viral replication in vitro using oral therapy in human subjects without dose limiting side effects (Lundberg et al., 2013).

    Despite pharmacokinetic studies in cattle and goats demonstrating a high distribution of ivermectin to the lungs following subcutaneous administration, the highest Cmax level achieved with a subcutaneous dose of 200 µg was >40 times less than the 5 µM antiviral concentration required to achieve an antiviral effect in vitro (Lv et al., 2018, Mastrangelo et al., 2012).

    Furthermore, due to the strong plasma protein binding of ivermectin, even high doses when administered orally may not be sufficient to reach the half maximal inhibitory concentration (IC50) required for ivermectin activity against SARS-CoV-2 (Gatti and De Ponti, 2021).

    These pharmacological considerations highlight the need for a mode of ivermectin delivery that is specifically targeted to the lungs and respiratory tract, particularly as this is the predominant site of viral entry.

    Targeted delivery of ivermectin to the lungs may achieve the effective local concentration with much lower total doses, while bypassing plasma protein binding and avoiding systemic toxicity.

    Several animal experiments have reported that direct pulmonary delivery of ivermectin can be achieved safely. Importantly, safety has also been demonstrated at doses that align with antiviral concentrations (Chaccour et al., 2020).

    The safety of intranasal and nebulized ivermectin has also been examined more recently in pigs and rats, with results corroborating the safety of direct respiratory delivery.

  25. CTG says:

    NomandicBeer, Jeff, I see what is the problem now. You need to open up a little bigger and see the skies instead of the trees or forest.

    BAU is more than just electricity, cars, internet, etc. It is everything that a modern human need. That includes, shoes, shirts, candles, etc.

    1. There are only 2 places where you have people unaffected by BAU – Irian Jaya and deep in Amazon jungle. These people live in the most “primitive” and spartan ways. They are just way too remote to be touched by modern conveniences and they use whatever the jungle can provide, that including clothing. Their numbers are extremely small and insignificant.

    2. There are many other tribes that are touched by BAU. Even the natives of Siberia are using BAU – sweaters, kettle, shoes, chainsaws, candles, parkas, comforters. Even if they decide not to use chain saw but an axe, that is also bau because they cannot produce their own axe head.

    3. Same goes for tribes in Africa. They do not have electricity and there is no need for internet but they are wearing fake Gucci t-shirts.

    4. Africa receives a lot of food aid to sustain their “super overshoot” population. Food aid is BAU. The country with the lowest population is Western Sahara at 0.5m. The large is Nigeria at 205m.Even the wandering tribes or the least “advanced” tribes still require BAU like shoes, spear points perhaps, etc.

    Like the cats in my back alley, these tribe find it easy to use what BAU has provided and don’t have to reinvent the wheel. The use chain saw, wear shoes, maybe consuming modern medicine,some clothes, buying axe, machetes or maybe rifles.

    I would like to bet that the current generation have lost 90% of the knowledge and capability of doing things the old ways. Like the tribes in Siberia, how many know how to sew a traditional leather clothing or chop tress without using modern technology. How many people know which plants are medicine? Perhaps the older generation but not the current generation.

    Ditto African tribes. Many are so used to shoes or even if they are not, they do not know how to go about in their traditional ways anymore.

    Lastly, similar to my cat colony, they are way too deep into overshoot (Africa), An estimate in 2022 put the total African population at 1.4b and growing.

    Just put on your thinking cap, without BAU, can Africa achieve 1.4B?

    Perhaps, less than 50,000 people can survive in Africa without BAU, that is assuming that those who are connected to BAU do not kill them off.

    Please comment when you say that “Many can survive with electricity, cars or internet”. I need you to comment also on “Amish who are still connected to BAU even they do not accept modern conveniences” and lastly “How many can live the primitive life where one has to sew their own clothes, shoes, hunt, forage and do agriculture without using a single thing made from BAU – axe, till, nails, shoes, etc?”

    • Xabier says:

      It’s obvious that cheap – mostly Chinese – domestic utensils, clothing, tools, etc, have entirely displaced nearly all traditional crafts and production, from local materials, in most places which lead a supposedly simpler life: CTG is exactly correct.

      The tentacles of industrial BAU have reached everywhere: even if it is, comparatively, only the tip of a minor tentacle (unlike us, who are totally griped by the beast) when one is withdrawn it will leave a nasty hole impossible to fill in the short term: and it is in the short term that we live or die.

      People are very far from the universal competence in the necessary arts of survival of their ancestors. So far, in fact, they they mostly don’t even see it!

    • MM says:

      If you lived in the city of Athenes and lookd up the hill while you walk around the city, you would always be reminded what humans can achieve without any of our modern technology. It is written in stone as you could say.

    • Gerry says:

      @ CTG

      Again i find you and am so impressed, wish you could join us:

      further too many years ago I came across or heard about a documentary of a group of people who to test and learn how difficult the wagon trains were in the early colonial days were they set about trying to replicate it. Can’t remember now all of the details but they didn’t last very long. Not even three days out and they gave up so difficult was the experience for them.

      On another matter what you describe there is an answer solution and it revolves around rationing similar to what occurred during ww2 where the number on the coupon took priority over mans money as legal tender or a medium of exchange.

      Technology has been a boom for banking and the desire of the power brokers is to number us all and then using either a computer chip or QR Code in the hand or forehead we will be allotted our bread accordingly. A type of social credit system similar to China will be rolled out to the entire world. please read whats here…


      • CTG says:

        Gerry, there is “no solution”. We are already in overshoot condition and we are running out of cheap energy since 1970s. In the 1970s, we substitutes debt with energy. It was a mirage for the last 50 years. We used money to fool ourselves and that gave us a false sense of security. Money covered up EROEI – classic example will be the US shale oil. Somehow if the payback is energy and not debt, then shale oil extraction would not even start. Debt was a proxy for EROEI. There is not enough surplus energy from shale oil to power modern human civilization.

        To prick your bubble on “rationing”, there is jo way earth would sustain 8b people without cheap and easy to access fossil fuel. Debt have complicated this matter by tying every single modern person to the financial system that will implode when growth goes negative. Debt-based system must grow or die. So, any form of rationing just hasten the demise. It will never work in our current system that came i to existence when Nixon closed the gold window.

        Technology? As you have high hopes. Sorry. Technology was the one thing has hasten the collapse. Does anyone really know how much energy the servers have to use when people work from home? A lot. Seriously a lot but it is hidden. It is technolgy that case a massive increase in energy use. Compare Ford Model T and the latest EV or ICE car. How much energy is “wasted” in producing the modern car as compared to Model T? Staggering, perhaps 10 fold? The mining of rare earth for the batteries, chips, the leather for the seats, the helium or antimony used in making chips that goes into the car? If we continue to use model T today, we would have lots of resources to spare.

        I visit The Saker and read though but did not follow. Predicament means no solution. We will know in a few short months when EU realised that energy is everything and debt requires growth to service.

        • CTG says:

          sorry. …. substituted energy with debt.. my mistake

        • Gerry says:

          @ CTG

          True enough, but as Schawbii says ‘you’ll own nothing and be happy about it.’ sounds eerily familiar to a new type of rationing system to me.

          further I work in the energy sector in a non elite role and to listen to the directors talk about what is coming is amazing. I even questioned one guy from Italy who said the world is investing some 700 billion in hydrogen in the coming decades and we are currently in the process of building a hydrogen compressor to begin trials? A friend who works for one of the companies involved with hydrogen I ask about it and he replies hydrogen will never scale up. What the world needs is less people. lol?

          and then there is another, one of our purchasers who is into electric cars and is positive about the future but of course I’m not and when we have discussions and I mention what you and others have to say he stammers back about LED lighting and how its implementation is helping to save energy. What about that he says among other etc etc?

          In any case thanks
          keep up the great work were listening!

          • CTG says:

            Gerry…glad that you worked in the energy sector. To me, an engineer, I usually tell people (if they are interested of course) that electricity and hydrogen are not FUEL sources. They are just carriers and carrier or medium have a efficiency loss. It is only convenience that electricity is used. You extract coal/natural gas, burn it to boil water, generate electricity and then at your own, you use the electricity to heat the water. Kind of wasteful, isn’t it? You can actually use the coal and boil water and that will be at a much lower loss and higher efficiency. It goes the same for electric cars.

            • MM says:

              I have a friend who claims to know a lot about renewables and says that innovation will just do the trick.
              If I say there exists a thing called thermodynamics, being the main part of my engineering degree he says, yes, but there also is innovation.

            • i used to chat online to a qualiified geologist who insisted the world was only 10k years old

              takes all sorts

            • Gerry says:

              Thanks and yes i knew you are an engineer from years ago. It’s simple to deduce your comments.

              What about the use of LED’s and such. In our last building we were still using those high bay lights and BC Hydro finally comes up with rebates to replace such wasteful energy. 60,000 dollars worth and the pay off was huge for the business. In my condo as well we replaced all the old t12 and the graph from BC Hydro was like WOW!!!! the difference caused us to also replace the parkade. It seems there is a huge push here anyway to do away with old technology for the savings cost wise and energy wise. If every city went this way the effect upon grid and power would be huge.

              My friend in purchasing often brings this up and says we in the human race are an industrious lot Gerry we will find solutions? lolI just roll my eyes.

            • MM says:

              @Gerry, If you refer to me, what I would recommend at the current stage of affairs is to stick with whatever is there as long as possible.
              A light bulb seems like a simple thing. We have 100 years of experience to manufacture these and a place on earth might exist to do that for quite a while. Light in principle is only a problem if you want to force the people to work outside of daylight time in the first place.
              Have we been talking about “less working hours due to profitability gains” yet?
              And so on. It is a complex topic.
              LEDs are a topic for low voltage systems that might apply if you engage in photovoltaics.
              From what I understand there is just too many products being incompatible if a manufacturer might fail. A Bulb I buy in Shanghai, I can plug in just about anywhere in the world.
              That does not apply for an LED bulb that you bring in your suitcase to any location, you might need to go if you will only have a suitcase. You get the point here.

              My mood on these things has changed in the direction of engines using biofuels.
              (scrapped Diesel engines can be modified to use plant based fuels “RME” or “Elstbett engine”)
              Unfortunately an engine uses a lot of metal. But the temperature required to make an engine is much easier to achieve than the temperature and conditions and rare earth elements required for PV – in the long run…

              It is as it is.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Technology has been a boom for banking and the desire of the power brokers is to number us all and then using either a computer chip or QR Code in the hand or forehead we will be allotted our bread accordingly. A type of social credit system similar to China will be rolled out to the entire world. please read whats here…

        Actually this is the future – it’s very brief

        • Gerry says:

          @ Fast Eddy

          You know if the most important sentence in the entire piece isn’t it this:

          “When have all countries aligned on any issue? Never.”

          Do you remember the words of Rockefeller?

          “We are grateful to the Washington Post, the New York Times, Time Magazine and other great publications whose directors have attended our meetings and respected their promises of discretion for almost forty years……It would have been impossible for us to develop our plan for the world if we had been subjected to the lights of publicity during those years. But, the world is more sophisticated and prepared to march towards a world government which will never again know war, but only peace and prosperity for the whole of humanity. The supernational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national auto determination practiced in past centuries. It is also our duty to inform the press of our convictions as to the historic future of the country.” David Rockefeller

          The power brokers of the world have a plan in place if not for the whole of humanity certainly for themselves. They have the money and the power to do as they please and they know all the issues more than anyone of us including the energy issues.

          When I hear that Gates is the largest farmland owner and is in the process of buying up more why would he do this? Centralized control of course?

          I am terribly suspicious that what we may see is a type of robinhood moment where some radical will pull off one of the greatest heists in history and then proceed to redistribute the wealth of the world equally gathering to itself the worlds poor and looking like a savior he will want demand obedience and even worship. this he will accomplish using technology because as McLuhan said about the world it is truly little more than a global village.

          I could go on and on about this very thing actually happening under Pierre Paul Schweitzer and Erstaz money or paper gold back in 1968. Her a quote from an old book by a Dr. Cantelon:

          “Schweitzer, the nephew of Albert Schweitzer, was an elite Protestant, born in alsace-lorraine, and had been elected as number -0three man in the Bank of France, and had been managing director of the International monetary Fund. some declared that when paper gold was presnted to the world on that March morning, Shweitzer declared

          Gentlemen we are right on schedule.

          72% of the nations in the IMF were considered under-developed. Schweitzer seemed especially dedicated to the task or policy of taking from the rich to give to the poor. This naturally made him popular with the majority in the IMF, who were elated at the prospect of acquiring some of America’s wealth regardless of the measures.” close quote

          Lastly, FE please read whats here something truly diabolical is occurring!!!!!


          • Gerry says:

            You know Gail likes to quote Revelation 18 in some of her studies and essays. As important as that is however, i look to another verse in the Bible St. Mark 13:19:

            because those will be days of distress unequaled from the beginning, when God created the world, until now—and never to be equaled again.

            and when I first learned about our energy predicament and reading you FE certainly brings to the forefront the truth of such a statement by our Messiah.

            amazing Everything is Written everything and for that we should be grateful as there does indeed exist a fountain of eternal youth. Christ a two-thousand year old thirty three year old. Make sure one hears from him well done enter into the kingdom prepared for you from the foundation of the world.

            Something positive to munch on for such a doomer blog as this


            • Fast Eddy says:

              We think that Fast Eddy may be the Second Coming…. I’d say 80-20 odds on that…

              It’s either HE is or I’ve gone insane

          • perhaps Gates harbours the delusion that today’s land values will remain constant (on his terms) if some kind of post oil collapse occurs.

            whereas the value of land is directly and specifically linked the amount of energy that can be put in and extracted from it.

            Post oil, that means human muscle

            that can’t be altered, whether as slave or voluntary labour.

            Outside the hot southern states, slavery cannot work, because in a full scale slave economy the sun still does most of the work.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            After that charade they then went into the back room and discussed what to do about the reality that cheap energy would peak around 2020…. and they started working on this

            And there have been zero faked leaks of this – cuz it’s the real plan. And real plans do not get ‘announced’…

            Just like nobody ‘announced’ they were intending to murder JFK.. or blow up the towers….

            These people value secrecy…. if they ‘leak’ … it’s to keep people off the trail of what’s actually going down.

    • Gerry says:

      I love watching a renovation show Barnwood Builders.
      You learn very quickly what it took to build barns during the colonial years. The Germans such a hard working industrious people. That one episode where taking apart a barn Mark Bowe said can you imagine nails made out of wood as he pulled one up to the camera for all to see? Watch that program for an education !!!!

      • MM says:

        The barn shown here is about a third the size of barns I have seen before.
        I have a legal restriction to view the content but I would be interested in it.

        The Barns I know are about 100 years old and have not more than 2 forged iron claws in the centre of the structure (about 100g of iron) the rest is just a self sustaining wooden construction.
        The only (energy) problem here is a solid roof aka tiles aka burned clay…

    • Gerry says:

      @ CTG

      Here is an interesting paragraph from the war front I’m sure you’ll enjoy:

      And our unit all chipped in to raise money for a quadcopter (a remote drone) which was sorely lacking, and a FAB Defense VFR SVD that we are eager to put to use. We like to buy our own toys because the government is very strict about issuing out equipment and the condition in which it has to be returned. Because these are government buys, if it breaks in the field or god forbid if it breaks before you get it to the frontlines during transportation, you’re on the line with a bill that’s 3x the actual worth of the piece of equipment. It’s easier to just chip in with the boys from the unit and get your own gear. Most of my gear I bought myself and I don’t have anything that’s government-issued in my personal kit — even my boots are American, oddly enough. Our military-issued boots are poor quality and when you spend days in situations where you can’t even take your boots off, this becomes pure torture for the feet. I suppose that the only things that I have that is government-issued are the plates in my vest. I don’t even use the vest provided by the government because you can’t shoot with it as it prevents you from being able to tuck the butt of your gun into your shoulder. The shoulder and chest-alignment is all off. But, not using the government-issued vest has its risks, because if I get shot in the chest, I won’t get compensation for it.

      But then, life is a serious of educated risks that we all take.

      Oh, and I got a new helmet so that I don’t have to wear that extremely heavy army-issued helmet anymore. I actually already had a lighter, better helmet from which it’s actually possible to shoot using a scope, but my superior officer forgot his and requisitioned mine, leaving me with that god-awful helmet I wrote so much about. Wearing it for more than an hour at a time gives you serious headaches. My superior officer’s excuse was that he had night-vision, but that he couldn’t attach it to the regular army standard helmet so I reluctantly swapped with him. I’ve heard that they’re going to start issuing new helmets for snipers from which you can actually shoot using a scope, so we’ll see how that goes.

  26. Whether some of you like or not, social darwinism will take place.

    Today’s winners will live. Their closer staff will live. The rest don’t.

    The very notion that today’s elites don’t know anything is ludicrous. They may not know that directly but there is something called nodes. Their system can identify who is needed on what part of the process, and what is not.

    The cold truth is if 90% of the world’s pop die, the top 10% can live as if nothing has happened, since they are so insulated from such problems. There are things called chain gangs, and the lower portion of the top 10% will toil. Problem solved.

    Most of the world’s knowledges are stored in databases. Finding a teacher to decipher and teach the new workers won’t be hard. I can volunteer .

    I am sorry, but modern civ is so advanced that it will leave nothing for the rest.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      I am sorry, but Alexander the Great Terrrorist long ago entered the nothingness of eternal death.

      so did all the Pharaohs.

      not that the “long ago” even matters.

      the instant you’re dead, you’re in the Club.

      the Elite 0.0001% all will be dead within a few decades. which is a blink of an eye in Eternity.

      do the math.

      don’t blink.

    • MM says:

      “When we are finished killing all humans on this planet we will be fine my son.”
      “But we are humans too, Dad?”
      “Yes, but we have a contract.”

  27. hillcountry says:

    Good article on the problems facing OEM’s in regards to Electrical Steel availability.

  28. Fast Eddy says:

    See what happened to Covid-19 deaths alone in the most recent 12 months in countries priding themselves in stellar Covid response through successful jabbing campaigns, from the time right after the completion of the “full vaccination series”, where the full protection of the population should have kicked in, and those that could not get the saviour jabs themselves:,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/


  29. Fast Eddy says:

    edited 56 min ago
    A family member had prostate cancer in 2015. Successfully treated it with a combination of natural, alternative, & allopathic methods. He gets checked out every 6 months, has been 100% cancer free 2016-2021.

    But at the beginning of the year, suddenly the cancer is back. But this time with a vengeance. PSA over 200. Cancer in over 20 lymph nodes. Cancer in bladder & spine. He was free & clear just months ago. Oncologist says this kind of rapid spread was previously unheard of, even impossible (unless you were a worker at 3 mile island, Chernobyl, Fukushima, etc). But the doctor admitted to seeing a lot of this sudden rapid cancer in the last 12 months. Yes my family member got the jab. Am I supposed to believe that’s just coincidence?

    My heart is broken, as my beloved family member will soon be on one of Mark’s lists. Spinal cancer can get very painful as it chokes off the nerves before eventual paralysis. This is not going to be pretty. I have suspicions that he is contemplating a less painful exit strategy. He has 2 kids.

    OR when the fuel ponds are left without cooling water….. the cancers will come fast

  30. serafean says:

    Without inputs there might not be enough food to go around.
    Inputs = fertilizer (NPK, all of them are currently experiencing shortages) + diesel (machines) + labour.
    Southeast asia and the middle east are not self sufficient (and cannot be at current populations). If global trade catches a cold, those populations will go hungry. That’s 1-2 billion people.

  31. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    Fri, July 29, 2022 at 1:46 PM
    Richer countries failed to keep a $100 billion-a-year pledge to developing nations to help them achieve their climate goals, according to an analysis by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD.

    $83.3 billion in climate financing was given to poorer countries in 2020, a 4% increase from the previous year, but still short of the proposed goal. The United Nations-backed payment plan was first agreed in 2009 to help poorer nations adapt to the effects of climate change and reduce emissions.

    The pledge, which was originally set up as an annual commitment from its inception until 2020, has never been fulfilled.

    “We know that more needs to be done” to address the shortfall, admitted OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann.

    Who pays for tackling and adapting to climate change has been a key sticking point between richer nations and poorer ones since international climate negotiations began 30 years ago.

    Harsen Nyambe, who heads the African Union climate change and environment division, told the Associated Press the continent will continue to put pressure on richer nations to ensure the $100 billion-a-year agreement is fulfilled. He added that the funds will give the continent better access to required technology and will help nations transition to green energy in a fair way.

    But others believe that after decades of unmet promises, it’s unlikely that richer countries will start to step up.

    “They do not have the money. They are over-committed with issues such as Ukrainian crisis and that is why they have been unable to meet any of their pledges,” said Godwell Nhamo, a climate research professor at the University of South Africa.

    “Africa should move on and find other sources of funding,” he added.

    A report released by the British charity Oxfam in 2020 warned that the recent increase in funding came in the form of loans, not grants, with climate-related loans increasing from $13.5 billion in 2015 to $24 billion in 2018. The charity said at the time that reaching the $100 billion goal in this way “would be cause for concern, not celebration.” It’s unclear whether the latest year-on-year increase in climate funding came in the form of loans or grants.

    In recent years, climate financing has helped fund greener energy and transport sectors for poorer nations, as well as adaptation measures for the agriculture and forestry industries which are threatened by land degradation, according to the OECD. ___ Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

    And the US ..has ..

    On Wednesday, the dream made a giant leap toward reality.

    In a stunning reversal from when he appeared to kill a climate deal just two weeks ago, Sen. Joe Manchin, a conservative West Virginia Democrat, announced support for the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, a bill that would invest about $370 billion into a range of policies aimed at reducing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. That would make it the most substantial effort by the federal government to tackle climate change in history.

    A vote on the bill could come within a week, though supporters are bracing for any last-minute hurdles.
    USA Today

    We got to appear that things are still under our control….sarcasm

  32. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    By Erika Edwards NBC
    A potentially deadly type of bacterium previously found only in parts of Southern Asia, Africa or Australia has been detected for the first time in soil and water samples in the U.S., the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday.

    The bacterium, Burkholderia pseudomallei, can cause an illness called melioidosis, which has proven fatal in half of cases worldwide.

    About a dozen cases are discovered every year in the U.S., usually among people who had traveled overseas.

    On Wednesday, however, the CDC announced that the bacterium had been found in soil and water samples along the Gulf Coast of Mississippi, and it issued a health alert to physicians nationwide to be on the lookout for symptoms of melioidosis, which can be vague, including cough, fever and chest pain. In more severe cases, the illness can lead to disorientation, pneumonialike illness and seizures

    is unclear how long the bacteria has been in the environment and where else it might be found in the U.S.,” the CDC said in a statement.

    Dr. Jill Weatherhead, an assistant professor of tropical medicine and infectious diseases at the Baylor College of Medicine in Houston, was not surprised that the bacterium had made its way into the country.

    We live in a subtropical climate here in the U.S. along the Gulf Coast, where it’s warm and humid. This is a suitable environment for Burkholderia pseudomallei,” she said.

    The bacterium has the potential to thrive anywhere along the Gulf Coast, she said, and it could become endemic.

    The discovery of the bacterium in U.S. soil comes after two people who were not related but lived near each other in Mississippi became sick with melioidosis — one in 2020 and the other in 2022.

    According to the CDC’s health alert for doctors, both patients were hospitalized with sepsis after they developed pneumonia. Both were given antibiotics and recovered.

    NBC Health

    Here we go again!

    • Azure Kingfisher says:

      Just how many different covers for COVID-19 “vaccine” damages will they need?

    • Fast Eddy says:

      VAIDS is a real problem … bogey men everywhere when you’ve no immune system.

      All it would take is say 10M dead and the hordes will be begging to be locked down

    • MM says:

      The reason why population went down in standard run in LTG was spreading germs and diseases due to degraded environment.

      repeat this line: Q4 will be worse than Q3

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        Q4 will be slightly worse than Q3.

        (but way worse in Europe, though that’s another story.)

        repeat the line.

  33. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    Brett Arends Marketwatch
    Fri, July 29, 2022 at 1:08 PM
    Top state and local pension funds lost $250 billion on the markets during the month of June and are down more than $600 billion for the year, according to a new study. The 100 biggest public sector pension funds were a staggering $1.5 trillion underfunded by the end of June, according to the latest survey by analysts at Milliman. On the bright side, pension fund investments did better than a balanced portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds through the first half of the year.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      and so in July, US stock markets were forced up by 8 to 12 %.

      • MM says:

        The US Stock market just reflects the cowardice of the money hoarders for loss of money or monetary value.
        The last thing these people want to do is what Marx called “work”.
        An iron chain with a proposal to work as a slave is an argument.
        The topic here is to pump up the fiat to at a certain point in time (now) to have “liquidity” to buy assets.

        Nobody ever replied to my question about US$ liquidity….

        For some unknown reason there might be some “market forces” that makes asset holders want to sell their assets.
        Looks like a strong Bull market to me.

  34. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    German Cities Begin Turning Off Lights To Save Energy
    By Charles Kennedy – Jul 29, 2022, 9:30 AM CDT
    Berlin, Germany’s capital, and other cities have started turning off the spotlights on historic monuments and municipal buildings in an effort to conserve energy ahead of winter.

    “In view of the war against Ukraine and Russia’s energy policy threats, it is important that we use our energy as carefully as possible,” Berlin’s environment senator, Bettina Jarasch said, as quoted by Insider.

    Munich is also starting to turn off its spotlights, while Hanover has gone a big step further, turning off the hot water in all public buildings to conserve energy.

    “The situation is unpredictable,” according to the mayor of the city.

    The conservation push comes as the European Union approved a plan proposed by the Commission to reduce gas consumption across the bloc by 15 percent between August and March next year to avoid the worst fallout of a potential Russian decision to turn off all the gas taps for Europe in retaliation for sanctions.

    The agreement comes after days of intense discussions, after the European Commission proposed last week a 15-percent voluntary consumption cut, to be made mandatory in case of a gas supply emergency.

    A dozen EU members, including Spain, Portugal, Greece, and Denmark, spoke out against mandatory gas consumption cuts, with Spain’s ecological transition minister, Teresa Ribera, saying last week, “Unlike other countries, the Spanish population has not lived above our means from an energy standpoint.”

    Germany, meanwhile, has appealed for solidarity and has already closed solidarity agreements with a few of its neighbors in a bid to secure some gas supply for the winter in case of cuts.

    Meanwhile, Gazprom has cut the flow along Nord Stream 1 to Germany to 20 percent of capacity, citing fresh turbine maintenance problems as it awaits the return of a turbine that was sent for maintenance in Canada earlier this year.

    By Charles Kennedy for

    Just like the old days when my Grandfather would chastised us kids for leaving the lights on with no one in the room!. He was very frugal and careful about saving and fixing…
    He lived to his 90s and was on a two story ladder painting his house in his 80s.
    Made soup every day, usually chicken, and drank his wine…

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Remind me again why we are at ‘war’ with the Russians via Ukelele?

      Did the Russians do something?

      Or is it to provide an excuse for not having enough energy to operate BAU?

      • MM says:

        We are currently in a process of making the great snake island landing documentation. Please stand by.

  35. Tres English says:

    I prefer to distinguish between “productivity” (labor productivity) and “efficiency” (materials and energy used per output). The distinction is important, since it is often (usually?) easier to cut costs by cutting labor per unit of production, than to decrease material/energy costs per unit. Every time we get more productive, the amount of money the workers have to spend (“demand”) goes down, unless the economy grows in proportion to the productivity, which is exponential, if productivity increases % per year.

    • CTG says:

      Tres English, if you have worked in a factory before (like I do), you will know the difference. Other than the low end products, most of the factories are fully automated and running 24/7 in order to reduce cost and achieve economies of scale. Modern factories have very little manpower. Even those labout intensive ones, slowly they are using machines.

      • Kowalainen says:

        “Modern factories have very little manpower.”

        Yes, and the workers mainly keep the machinery operational, or operate some heavy duty behemoth shoveling ore down the ‘digestive system’ of IC.

        It is what life does; turns mineral (ore) and energy (FF’s) into complexity (IC’s), which in turn is used in said “macro” machinery.

        IC as an “organism” with the “workers” acting as the immune system.

      • Gerry says:

        most of the factories are fully automated and running 24/7 in order to reduce cost and achieve economies of scale.

        Not the one I’m in unfortunately. Actually little to no automation except for the CNC area which of course fully needs operators. And wow, Gail’s argument about labor costs as opposed to the cost of production is so true. Take for example a shock I got over 4 years ago now. Had to travel into Vancouver to get small cap screws 25 of them at a cost of 75.00 dollars and this at a discount. I sat there in the truck staring at them in disbelief. All told with my time truck time gas etc these blasted screws came in at over 150.00? Gail you are so right but today the company is making money turning a profit but alas after we joined with an Italian firm. Further one of the executives from California said at a townhall over 5 years ago they were happy to just break even. Constantly losing money had needed to end!!! So they gave half the company to an Italian firm! Competition in the sector has to end for the benefit of all apparently.
        thanks Gail listening and reading you helped to understand the why of it all.


  36. CTG says:

    Our world needs efficiency and economies of scale. There is no question about it. Nothing will be manufactured if no profits can be made. Any products that need to be researched and developed must be able to sell well in future to recoup the costs incurred. The only way is to mass produce and it must be done in the most cost-efficient way. Globalization was used extensively to reduce the cost but at the expense of fragility of the supply chain. The development of iPhone will not be carried out if it cannot be sold profitably. A toaster will not be made if the manufacturing cost is too high. The factory will cease to exist, and the toaster will not be made. No exceptions even if the government interferes. It can prolong the death but never prevent it. It is just a matter of time before production stops completely.

    Everything that we bought from fresh produce to cars and services from massage to accounting services pass through some devices that has electronics. It can be used in the product itself like a computer or manufactured by machines controlled by computers (like making bicycles or processing food). For services, the usage of phone, computers and software requires electronics as well. Basically, when we have a Carrington event and all electronics are fried, the entire modern human civilization grinds to a complete stop immediately like in within 5 mins.

    A computer can be rendered useless if a lowly capacitor popped. To replace a capacitor in the motherboard, you need an entire array on equipment to repair (if it can be repaired). Soldering iron, oscilloscopes, etc may not be good enough for a high-tech multi-layered printed circuit board. It is either you use it, or you throw it away as it is just too complex to be repaired. Of course, the lowly 2-cent capacitor has to be manufactured by the millions in a factory somewhere in the world (i.e. economies of scale). The machines that make the capacitors are complex and the raw materials must be sourced worldwide. Missing out any of these, you will not get your capacitor. Oh yes, it has to be shipped to your place, perhaps at the other side of earth. So, there are just too many parts that can fail and it cannot be replaced.

    “The elites will enjoy their life in the world as 90% of the population dies off. They will enjoy the conveniences of modern society. The oligarch’s dream comes true.” Some big issues though
    1. The oligarchs know nothing about manufacturing and are they are like the G4 cats. Coddled.
    2. Without the masses, there will be no economies of scale for manufacturing. The factories will not even be opened for business if they make one million capacitors per year.
    3. Without population, who would do the mining, fishing and agriculture? The 10% of the people that did not die? Do they have the knowledge to do agriculture? Who will train them? Like the cats in my back alley, who will train the G4 cats on how to avoid humans as they might harm them? They were already so dumbed down that I have to avoid stepping on them when I walk.

    NomandicBeer… correct me if I misinterpreted what you mean.
    The rich think they can continue their life as though nothing happened? That is not possible. In Avengers movie, Thanos snapped a finger, 50% died and the movie shows that life goes on as usual on earth. That is just a movie. If 50% dies, the other 50% dies with days. Who will drive the trucks to transport food. Do you think an organization will function if 50% of the people die? Do you think a farm or an oil rig will produce if 50% of the workers die? This movie gave the whole world a wrong impression that the world will function if 50% die off.

    Well, if this is the 1800s, if 50% of the population dies, the remaining 50% can survive because their dependency on other human beings is very low. Right now, we depend on other people for food, energy and water. We have no capability to feed ourselves easily. We have invented extremely complex supply chain, machines and services in the name of improving efficiency and economies of scale and we have no “undo” button. Xabier said before. We climbed the ladder of technology and on the way up, we kicked off the lower rungs. We cannot revert to fax machines, telexes, or the real telegram. The banks cannot revert to using paper and punch cards. We cannot work if internet is down.

    A lot of people mix up history and present day. History rhymes but it does not repeat. When the Roman empire fell, the farmers and the residents (skilled or unskilled) moved to other locations and start afresh. The population is low and there were enough resources for everyone. A collapse in one place does not mean that everywhere else collapses. Right now, our entire world is one big civilization. We have nowhere to go when it collapses. We are very deep into in the overshoot position with very little or no resources left.

    People will say that “We have people who know how to survive (preppers) and aborigines in remote locations.” The number of aborigines who are totally untouched by civilization is very small and insignificant. They spread over too large an area. Without a large group of people, these scattered aborigines cannot sustain their population for long. Unless they numbered in hundreds of thousands, the genetic diversity is very low and eventually they will die off. For preppers, the numbers are small and the distance between them is far apart. Even if somehow, they manage to meet up and procreate, do they even have the knowledge? Midwifery? Natural medicine via plants and herbs? Do we even have the numbers to sustain a reasonable population? As stated I have done a simulation of human population. It is very hard or even impossible to sustain population of a town/city through hundreds or thousand years (organically, i.e. without foreign influx). It either dies off or it booms and then dies off. Steady state population is hard or impossible to achieve.

    Just put on your critical thinking cap. One prepper family of 5 in one remote location and they know 10 more prepper families within their 100-mile radius. If the head of one family dies, the rest may find it hard to sustain and eventually they will die off. Now, if they decide to have children, they must travel far to find the other prepper families. Do they have the skills and knowledge on doing things without the comfort of modern technology and modern medicine? Can these 10 families sustain for long? Not a chance if there are natural disasters, famine, extreme weather, etc.

    So, no, it is pure delusion that we have a viable modern society if 50% of our population is gone. I am not surprised if the system collapses at 10% population reduction. Our debt-based economy is either grow or die. There is no denying that. The government can change the definition of “recession” but it does not alter the reality. As Ayn Rand said “You can ignore reality, but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality”

    • Good points!

      Our system is incredibly interconnected, so it would be hard for it to continue with a very significant loss of people. I am not sure what percentage of population loss would cause a problem. If the loss were 100% of the people over age 85 for example, I am doubtful that it would make a huge difference (except in care home employment and the medical system). Losing a lot of prime age workers would have a different impact.

      You make good points about preppers and sustainability of these groups. They tend to think that they can store up things from today (machinery, canning supplies, solar panels, buildings with glass windows) and those will help them make the transition to the future. These systems tend to run out or break. Or the prime farmer breaks a leg during planting season. There needs to be an incredible amount of redundancy in the system, besides the issues you mention.

      • Artleads says:

        Prime age workers are using a broken economic system, involving mass layoffs, to find more agreeable occupations. I’m not sure that people over 85 won’t be in demand to take up some of the slack in worker availability?

      • NomadicBeer says:

        Gail, both you and CTG are beating to death a strawman.

        Only insane people and economists believe that modern civilization can continue forever. But jumping from there to “everybody is going to die!” shows such a simplistic binary thinking that I don’t know how to debate that. Is there really no other possibility than Walmart forever or the end of the world?

        Can people really not imagine how to survive without electricity, running water, cars and central heating? Then congratulations! You are part of the 95% that will enjoy FE’s UEI (or whatever it was).

        But don’t be so narrowminded to imagine that everyone is thinking exactly like you (I am talking to you FE). The kid soldiers in Africa, hopped up on cocaine will keep doing what they’re doing (raping and killing) – of course they might do that in Europe. The surviving former slave labourers that are building your Apple products might get lucky and return to the life of their ancestors, or live in a slum somewhere eating rats. Do you think that is worse that what they are doing now, being poisoned by arsenic or worked to death in death traps buildings?

        • Jef Jelten says:

          I’m with you man.

          “Can people really not imagine how to survive without electricity, running water, cars and central heating?

          The vast majority of the population already does live that way. I mean over half, some 5 billion or more if you count having those things only for a few hours a day.

          Most analysis from online folks is completely focused on the billion or two people in the West.

          • Herbie Ficklestein says:

            Fast Eddie..are you paying attention…most EXIST with meager BAU if any..

          • Fast Eddy says:

            What will you eat when the power goes off?

          • Kim says:

            I live among some of the poorest people in the world. The end of BAU will kill them as surely as it kills the people of Beverly Hills.

            – no cheap oil for IC irrigation pumps means only one harvest a year, not three = starvation

            – no cheap oil for motorbikes means no going miles to cut roadside grass to feed the goats and cows they keep behind the house = no cash income from raising animal protein

            – no plastics at the landfill to scavenge for recycling means the loss of maybe two thirds of their monthly income = starvation

            – no fertilizers and pesticides for their fields means a radical fall in their harvests

            And in the towns, no petrol means all of the businesses close bcs who has money and who will come to shop? They already don’t turn on their lights during the day and are just scraping by

            You clearly have never lived among the people who at the bottom of the pyramid in the third world. But I assure you, they are as fatally locked into this system as anyone in Los Angeles or London.

            • Kim

              i think yours is one of the best summaries ive read on here

              no BS–no ‘elders’–no conspiracies

              just life as it is right now–and how it’s going to be

            • MM says:

              People came to exist today without a money and without fossil fuels. If they just use what is left of their brains they will have to endure some hard work (I do not carry this water! I prefer to die) and just go on – or die.
              It is as it is.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          But what will they eat?

          How will they keep the spent fuel ponds from spreading cancer across the entire planet?

          Look up Dunce Kruger… you have this affliction

    • NomadicBeer says:

      “So, no, it is pure delusion that we have a viable modern society if 50% of our population is gone. I am not surprised if the system collapses at 10% population reduction. ”

      Absolutely correct.
      But you have to remember there is no way for our modern society to continue – even if the oligarchs have absolute control, the best they can do is delay the inevitable by impoverishing the middle classes, killing the poor (slowly) and use propaganda to stop anyone from fighting back. Does that sound familiar?

      Most of what you say is irrelevant – who are you trying to convince about the modern society lasting? Also you seem to believe that “is different this time”. Isn’t that what every empire thought before?

      “1000 year reich”
      “Sun will never set on the british empire”
      “Rome, the eternal city”

      I don’t believe today it’s that different – except in the amount of population decline. While parts of Roman empire retained 20% of their population, I think most of the world will retain at most 5%. But so what? That would still leave 400 million people, about the same as in the XVth century (

      Most people in the western world have never truly suffered in their lives so I understand why they cannot believe that people will survive (and even thrive) wars, plagues and famines (with the attending cannibalism). And yet that is basically most of human history and we are still here.

      To give an argument in support of FE’s theory, we do see historical examples of absolute leaders that are willing to kill ALL their subjects if they know they are dying (Hitler is an example). But they have never succeeded yet, and my hope is they won’t succeed this time.

      • CTG says:

        NomandicBeer, based on the reply above, you are not at the same level of thinking as many of us. You are just halfway there.

        Tell me – have you worked in a factory before? I know you are from Eastern Europe. Have you stayed for long period of time or experienced travelling around the world to far flung corners that is remote?

        Have you done serious and critical thinking on comparing history and present day?

        That fact that you said this “even if the oligarchs have absolute control, the best they can do is delay the inevitable by impoverishing the middle classes, killing the poor ” shows that you are not ready to accept new ideas.

        Sorry.. when BAU collapse, they are the first to go. No one is going to protect the oligarchs. Their riches is brought by BAU. No BAU, no riches. Their private army is not going to stand by them.

        See Sri Lanka

        You have much to learn and understand….

        • MM says:

          Resistance also needs some sort of BAU.
          The question you would like to task “The Aladdin” would be to ask for a die-off slow enough to not be noticed and fast enough to wipe out the last pockets of resistance.
          Also making the people dumb enough for not being able to resist could help.
          After some period of turmoil, you can convince the remainder to accept their fate and continue to work as slaves, better than nothing.

          For me it comes down to a timing problem and from what I see sales for automatic weapons is up but usage is not.
          If this is a good thing depends on your viewpoint.

      • MM says:

        I think promoting cannibalism was the absulute right idea by the WEF.
        Now, we only need to seek out our new food source.

    • Hubbs says:

      I think another consideration is failure to take into account the superspecialization in most activities of living today. Mechanics have no concept of farming or animal husbandry. Doctors can’t repair a HVAC unit. And of course keyboard operators especially financial planners etc. will have no useful skills whatsoever. Ditto for lawyers and politicians. With this specialization, i.e. absence of generalization in a wide variety of survival skills, society may deteriorate much more quickly than anticipated, The common denominator of a loss of food production and distribution followed by perceived inconveniences of air conditioning, heating, travel, electricity from your wall socket and water from your faucet. This super specialization will accelerate our demise as far as aggravating civil unrest and squabbling over the basics. We simply are more vulnerable.Those who are generalists and can get by with lower tech will be the survivors. Even if there is a 90% die off, the remaining 10% will have sufficient skills albeit it be at a lower level of technology, to provide fundamental restoration of some kind of living standards beyond that of a pure agrarian or nomadic existence. Look no further than Cuba to see how they have made do with things that are half a century old. Salvage and repair will be critical.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Keeping the water cool in spent fuel ponds will be a critical skill… particularly with no pumps or computer controllers and cooling units to maintain the temperature.

        I tried to find a DIY video on that… nuthin

        Who needs Fentanyl… this sounds much more effective

        Although I am not sure if you get the nice floaty sensation that a good opiate provides

        • MM says:

          “Assisted suicide pod”

          • Fast Eddy says:

            I unfortunately watched a man being castrated in what was purported to be Ukelele last night … and now I cannot unwatch it.

            This is the sort of thing that humans are capable of you – just wait till they are seriously hungry and someone tries to stop them from getting into a garden or pantry.

            They will commit the most horrible acts upon anyone who opposes them … we are without a doubt monsters with a thin veneer that remains in place if we have enough… the second we don’t – the monster emerges.

            For those desirous of riding this out … and fighting the mob… I urge you to have a plan b that allows you and your families to opt out…. you have no idea what sort of horrors you are exposing yourself and you families to. You are engaging in dangerous folly

            • MM says:

              Fast,you always say: I like to watch.
              You look into the abyss and it will just take you down. We had this topic here.

              Do you really think “not censoring this very topic on youtube” is helpful for you and me ?

              I accept a link from the fringes you go but I never ever want to really see and know what these degenerate people do. (Hunter?!)

              The strategy is to erase your soul by all means available at all fronts available.
              The message of the Ukrainiian soldiers is just evil and they want you to drown with them.

              The germans did this as well. A group goes in to commit a crime and all members later are colluding in covering it. They aquired “bad Karma” and acted accordingly.
              We have this in child abuse, animal torture, blood sacrifice, what have you.
              I do not now the name of this strategy and I do not even grasp the karmic issues about it (ISIS burning people alive or chopping American reporter’s heads off and so on. Why do we have THAT content on youtube but not Malone, Yeadon or Gvb- or the Fast ?????)

              As long as you (we) engage in these horrific things in the sense of “watching” we consent (!) of these things in the first place.

              A karmic rule for the rulers is:
              We do really crazy stuff but as long as we do not encounter physical harm from that (aka “punishment”) we are allowed to do that.

              I am not the creator of these rules but I am a reader. In the end I personally do not see them as valid because they (witchcraft and stuff) do not really make sense in “our” creation.

              This single thing is true:

              keep your soul clean.
              keep this earth clean.

      • Artleads says:

        Cuba did much of what you say, but it could offload many of its people to cushy USA. They also had some help from non-USA industrial countries that were (and are) still widespread.

      • CTG says:

        Cuba is plugged into BAU via Soviet Union. That was the 1980s where there are still skills and knowledge.

        The present generation knows only how to operate a smart phone. The rest who have the skills, probably a handful are too little a number to have any impact on the survival of mankind.

        Do you know anyone who knows how to make soap, weave cloth, make shoes without BAU?

        Forget scavenging the remnants of BAU. All useful products will rust or unusable within 5 years.

        No large number of humans will survive the next 100 years to procreate, propagate and populate the whole world at a lower level of technology. We have gone past that stage.

        If the collapse happened while we were at the 1940s/1950s, YES, it is possible that there are many people who knows how to do things without BAU because at that point of time, many parts of the world are still untouched by BAU. The people still have skills and perseverance to do it.

        Please watch this video :

        and tell me if you expect that young lady to do what your grandparents did in the 1950s

        No skills, no patience, cannot take hardship… Those who want to “survive” this reset are those who are >40 years old. Those who are aware are generally >40 years old. Are they still in the prime age for having babies?

        If collapse happen in in the 1950s, I am 100% in agreement that there will be pockets of humans who will populate earth and the environment is not that badly damaged. Now, it is not the case.

        I stand correctly. Please refute me with facts and convince me that I am wrong

        • a says:

          i THINK WE’RE LIVING WITH A HIGHLY IMPAIRED GENERATION, MUCH AS YOU SAY. The vaccination impairment of genes means we have a sickened, weakened species to deal with. The young are not that different from the old under such circumstances. We should encourage (not force) the old to work, and we should definitely OBLIGATE the billions of students to contribute to what a realistic future will require. We have a world and a biosphere that are sickly–sickliness and fragility epitomise our age. Our time, rightly assessed, is a time of triage, of repair and maintenance rather than of building anew.

          With 8 billion humans, we can afford a period of non-procreation. Give the planet some time to refresh. None of this will haPPEN IN OUR TIME. I suggest that our time is merely to hold on, repair, maintain, correct, adjust, adapt, and otherwise do as little as we can get away with. And slow down the baby production for a while. If we destroy nothing, and change nothing, our self organizing system will figure out the smoothest possible way forward (which might not be all that smooth for humans).

          • Kowalainen says:

            It is not a problem that of genetics, but rather that of the mind and to great extent caused by the perpetual narrative peddling in order to shift the wares and “services” for an insane ‘lifestyle’.

            And the rapacious primate is indeed extremely sensitized to the fabricated theatrics of envy, statuses and prestiges. That’s simply monkey business 101.


            Yes indeed, a primates “Will to Power”. Or the inevitable process toward a pathological civilization and collapse. Even these so called traditionalists/conservatives are no exception to the rule. The full blown loonies are somehow “truer” to the times.


            I think old Nietzsche would agree.

            Sooner or later:
            Tryhards gonna tryhard.
            MOARons gonna moar.

            Aaaand it’s GONE!

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Your understanding of the situation is profoundly incorrect

    • Fast Eddy says:

      There are 4000 Spent Fuel Ponds Around the Globe…

      If you don’t cool the spent fuel, the temperature will rise and there may be a swift chain reaction that leads to spontaneous combustion–an explosion and fire of the spent fuel assemblies. Such a scenario would emit radioactive particles into the atmosphere. Pick your poison. Fresh fuel is hotter and more radioactive, but is only one fuel assembly. A pool of spent fuel will have dozens of assemblies.

      One report from Sankei News said that there are over 700 fuel assemblies stored in one pool at Fukushima. If they all caught fire, radioactive particles—including those lasting for as long as a decade—would be released into the air and eventually contaminate the land or, worse, be inhaled by people. “To me, the spent fuel is scarier. All those spent fuel assemblies are still extremely radioactive,” Dalnoki-Veress says.

      It has been known for more than two decades that, in case of a loss of water in the pool, convective air cooling would be relatively ineffective in such a “dense-packed” pool. Spent fuel recently discharged from a reactor could heat up relatively rapidly to temperatures at which the zircaloy fuel cladding could catch fire and the fuel’s volatile fission product, including 30-year half-life Cs, would be released. The fire could well spread to older spent fuel. The long-term land-contamination consequences of such an event could be significantly worse than those from Chernobyl.

      The Chernobyl accident was relatively minor, involved no spent fuel ponds, and was controlled by pouring cement onto the reactor. This was breaking down so a few years back they re-entombed.

      Estimates of the cancer burden in Europe from radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident

      • Kowalainen says:

        Yes, and there is no tractable way for hoomans to produce systems that would keep these fuel assemblies cooled down past some “engineered” bottleneck, sans dumping them in the Mariana Trench beginning today, but surely that would throw Greta into a state of catatonia.

        IC is fundamentally incapable of producing truly “durable goods” worth a crap. 100 millions of blue collar workers are needed to keep the clunker from deteriorating to a pile of defunct jank.

        Do you reckon the blue collar workers were vaxxed? That would be an ‘oh noes’ situation. But don’t worry, there’s still ample hydrogen left for the sun to burn.

        How about dumping the Tryhards and MOARons on the genetic trash heap of history and try another hodgepodge of various genes? Let’s not forget some rudimentary ‘civilizational’ survival instinct the next time around. No?


        • Fast Eddy says:

          I imagine dumping the fuel into the ocean would poison the oceans and kill everything … of course convection would carry the toxins to the surface and into the air … depositing the toxins everywhere… that’s the beauty of these toxins… they don’t dilute like other poisons… and they remain active for centuries.

          Cancer cancer everywhere!

          • Kowalainen says:

            The oceans are quite large for diluting slowly decomposing spent fuel assemblies.

            However; it’s merely a theoretical scenario since nobody would approve such drastic means of dealing with the problem. After all; we’re still high on the egotistical fantasies, hopium and copium of a perpetual IC.

            One does not simply build wind turbines and install solar panels while dumping spent fuel assemblies in the ocean. It just won’t happen.

            And once the die off and collapse accelerates, there would be no capability left to get the assemblies on a suitable freighter floating on top of the Mariana Trench.


            • Artleads says:

              I’m not sure about all your details here, but I’d agree that expecting responsible leadership for this level of crisis is dreaming. You’d first have to decide what responsible leadership entails, then look for how that stacks up against the status quo. Going from zero to doing something responsible with nuclear waste is like a dog chasing its tail.

            • Kowalainen says:

              Surely an competently executed clandestine operation could make this a reality.

              But that won’t happen with people high on their own product. Inevitably hopiate laden “YOLO’s” surely would find it appalling keeping the cookie holes input mode only.

              But it would have been hilarious having the hyper MOARons installing solar panels and cheering on for each wind turbine erected, while you and I dump highly toxic and radioactive fuel assemblies at sea.

              The shits and giggles would be real.
              🥳 🫳
              🛶 ☢️
              🌊 🌊

            • Fast Eddy says:

              How do you move spent fuel to the deep ocean without the cooling waters? There is a LOT of it… and in many instances … it’s a long way….

            • Kowalainen says:

              The freighter will traverse the ocean. There’s ample of cooling water everywhere. A few simple pumps dousing the assemblies would suffice.

              Once on top of the trench, just pull the plug from the vessel and let it sink lock stock and barrel.

              An excellent choice would be decommissioned oil tankers (there will be plenty of those anytime soon). Just fill em up with assemblies and top up with water. The hull would provide ample cooling between the “cargo” and sea. And if it isn’t sufficient, just open up the hatches and let it steam off some heat. Top up with salt water as needed.

              Just get the assemblies shipped from the power plants for, say, “reprocessing” and “inspection” matters. Then load em up on a tanker. Return older relatively “inert” assemblies that can be dry casked. Nobody would notice the shuffling and fudging among the assemblies. A bit of “clever” book keeping would make that a breeze.

              Onwards to the salty grave!

    • sciouscience says:

      I just want to re-phrase this one thing; growth incurs debt until death. Inflation is the increasing distance between points as growth occurs which requires debt to continually evaluate currency. Calories are currency for growth of fauna. Sunlight for flora, energy for civ. Only upon death can there be repayment of debt.

      • MM says:

        I think Gail can elaborate much better on the topic of debt.
        There exist two paths for your future (from where you are now):
        You take on debt and pay it down as a slave later
        You make a front up payment for something in the future and be a slave until this moment in your future. (but it will be easier to change course!)

        A small inconvenience is in the debt deal called interest and an other one of money creation.
        Talking about “convenience” here…

        Debt is not a thing that occurs in nature as far as I know.
        You make an investment (seed) and you get offspring or not.
        Nature would not make “offspring” too much dependent on “being still there paying off a debt when the offspring has been created”
        (yeah, breast feeding or egg stability and stuff, convenience!)

  37. CTG says:

    We moved to our new house in 2018. In Malaysia, houses are built in long rows (terraced) and there is a back lane or back alley. In 2018, there were 5-6 stray cats in the back lane. Life was tough for them. We started to feed them. Now the population is already in overshoot as their current habitat does not support the current number of 20 cats.

    G1 = first generation cat. G2 is the second generation (offspring of G1) and so on. I will use these terms throughout this long comment

    In 2018, G1 were perfectly normal cats. They were wary of us and when we put the food on the road, they will wait until we were gone before they crept over to eat. They were healthy but thin. G2 was born with food readily available and more human-friendly than G1. When it comes to G3 or G4, they were so used to humans that they are more humans than cats. They don’t hunt but wait for food. They sit and groomed in the middle of the “usually deserted” road. Car must stop and swerve them. The don’t know how to hunt, totally oblivious to humans and dogs. If we were to stop feeding them, I believe the cats will die off. There were a few roadkills already as they were dumb enough to stray into the path of cars. Bottom line, the entire cat population will be decimated if I did not continue with the feeding. They have no skill on taking care of themselves like what the “cats of olden days do” (These rhymes with what we are facing now. See paragraphs at the end of the comment)

    The health of G4s is not good. Seems to have some genetic defects and their faces look “not normal” Eyes were small and slanted. They practise in-breeding. Perhaps in-breeding contributed to the stupidity of the cats(?) In short, I have created a situation where it might be better off if I did not feed the cats from the beginning.

    Modern human civilization, from the prediction of Calhoun rat experiment, may be in the same situation as my alley cats.

    30+ years ago, I studied in one of the best high schools in the state. Entry to the school was merit-based but 10% of the students were not. The school allow some well-connected students to enter. Most of them were lousy in studies but they were rich or well connected. They are rich but lack the brain power. I believe they were G2, G3 or G4s. The used money as a substitute and paid their way through universities. Of course, the rich also produce smart children but the numbers are low. These not-so-smart people went to universities, somehow graduated and work in their dad’s companies or other companies. Many of them became leaders (perhaps not due to merit but connection?), took up politics, have families and children. This is no different from the olden days where the rich are the ones controlling the community.

    By chance, I met up with a super-rich person from Indonesia in the early 1990s. I think G1 built the empire. G2 helped to expand it. G3 wanted to attend an Ivy league and dad (G2) had to put in a large donation for him to get in, rich but not good enough to enter ivy leagues. Maybe this person, with his dad’s connection went to work in a large bank, rise up in rank because of his father’s large deposit in the bank, hired people who are similar (i.e. mentality, brain power, etc) and propagate mediocrity in the bank. Over time, the bank will be filled with useless people.

    Meanwhile down at a lower level, the key word is “entitlement”. Everyone here remembered the good old days when we were young. We defied our parents, went out to play, fell, got a bleeding ankle, yet still must conspire with younger brother not to tell mum/dad as they will certainly beat the hell out of us. Now, the entitled-mentality parents would blame the uneven road for their precious child’s fall. It is not the fault of the child but the road. The children were so protected and coddled, no different from the G4 cats in my back alley where I am coddling them with effort-free food. They lack the knowledge, skill, and brainpower, which they can, hopefully substituted with money. However, when everyone is of similar low brain power, they are very much at home and no money is be spent to make up for this disadvantage. That is why the society of the 1940s, 1960s, 1980s are so different from the present one. The present society is more interested in wokeism and failed to see bigger issues (like not enough energy). This is no different from the alley cats.

    Universities started to be filled with G3/G4 people something in 1970s. As each generation try to protect its mediocrity while showing “greatness”, hurdles were put up for those who question and challenge them. Add in “yes man”, “entitled people”, “diversity”, “affirmative action” and spread that over a few decades, the soup of midwit and dimwit comes to a boil in 2020.

    So, if you were to ask me if there are elders or smart people in the system (higher ups) who can think and plan. There were many probably 50-100 years ago but now, very few. Kissinger’s generation is probably the last generation where leaders have brain power and can see into the future. Brain power has gone down the drain since 1970s and this explains why pregnant ladies took the vaccine but said that aspirin is bad for the babies. That also explains that Canadian doctor/bureaucrat who urged everyone to get the vaccine/boosters but died young while exercising. It is likely that he believed in this COVID narrative.

    These people (professionals usually) seriously believe in what they think is right and there is no critical thinking. Like the G4 cats in my back alley, they seriously believe that I will do no harm to them. To make it interesting, G2 and G3 cats where were quite wary of humans, after seeing G4 cats being so friendly to humans (me), they became less wary and did not really run away when I approach them. This is the same situation where the older people took the vaccines just because their kids took them.

    Be it vaccines or UKR or green energy, EVs, climate change, wokeism, etc. They believe in them. Seriously believed in them. “Entitlement” has completely removed “critical thinking”. Any generation is that better off than the previous generation will always have the “entitlement” mentality. It is impossible for them to even think of their ancestor’s tough life. Critical thinking died in 1970s and not in the 2000. It is not a coincidence that 1970s is the time when USD went off the gold standard, US energy peaked, and printed money ruled. It was in the 1970s that future generations will fare better than previous generations.

    Remember, in nature, if a skill (like language) or an organ is not used, it will degenerate over time and over a few generations, it disappears. Anyone disagree with me? That happened to critical thinking. G5 cats does not know how to hunt because G4 never taught them how to hunt. G4 cats told G5 cats that humans will feed them. Just show your cute face and food will be available.

    There were no good solutions to my cat problem. The population must go down to the levels that the environment can support it. However, the knowledge of “cat survival” is completely lost for the G4/G5.

    • I generally agree. Perhaps teachers found it difficult to teach more diverse classes. Mothers weren’t at home, to make certain children did their homework every day. An attempt was made to teach everyone, but it didn’t necessarily work out well.

      • Artleads says:

        Teachers are teaching in preparation for a world running on growing supplies of fuels. Compared to that, diverse classes seem to be a minor problem.

      • fromoasa says:

        What happened to that cat that wanted you to adopt it, Gail? The one near your home, left by some student women who moved out?

        • My son is feeding the cat food, outside, so we still have it around. He wants to train him and keep him. It is hard to fight with family members over this. Or maybe eventually send it to the county facility for pets that people want to give away.

          The idea to feed the cat for a while began because we didn’t have the full information to put on the form to give the county facility.

          • fromoasa says:

            Really, cats are quite capable of feeding themselves. A local one that I knew had a home, but I’d occasionally see him eating a mouse that he had caught. If you said hello, he would meow and stop for a stroke and then be on his way again. I imagine your local cat also enjoys a bit of interaction with humans.

          • Student says:

            My mother keeps a couple of cats without feeding them completely.
            She lives in the countriside and those cats help keep mice far from the vegetable garden.
            She provided them a little shelter.
            They are in good health, but the female one has been sterilized because it is full of stray (hope it is right term) cats in the sorroundings and we wanted to avoid to increase the problem.
            Cats and dogs are of course animals that consume some resources 🙂 but they give us nice sensations.

          • Tim Groves says:

            Humans don’t train cats.
            Cats train humans.
            They have us thoroughly domesticated!

    • Fast Eddy says:

      A magnificent post — and I do recommend printing out a good recipe for stewed cat before the power goes off.

      While I agree there are plenty of imbeciles born of wealthy parents who inhabit the upper echelons of the world ….. my take on the situation is that we are seeing a greater polarization between the circus animals and barnyard animals…. neither could of course survive in the wild…

      The circus animals breed with other circus animals (although sometimes if a circus animal finds a really hot barnyard animal an exception is made) … their offspring have massive advantages over the barnyard offspring — they go to schools that don’t have tranny freaks teaching and tranny reading time… they have tutors… they are exposed to a wide range to activities outings… travel … cultural events etc etc….

      A mate of mine is a senior finance guy – and he tells me the interns they bring on have been learning the ropes since they were old enough to punch a calculator – they attend summer camps that focus on learning finance… the reason he mentioned that was that back in the day I had a gf who was in uni and she asked if I could ask about an internship — no go.

      Her daddy was the main man in a very big law firm in HK and she eventually parlayed that into a job at Goldman’s Sack… she was basically customer service entertaining clients when in town (basically at G2… not very competent) but fit… and quite hot… and comfortable in those sorts of circles… so it all worked out

      Anyhow …. although many of these G+ people are incompetent and get jobs because of who they know … from what I see the imbeciles do not dominate… without a doubt many G+ to dominate but they are highly educated … ‘intelligent’ (as circus animals are)… cunning beasts … it’s quite hard to get into the top roles if one is an imbecile regardless of connections… but it can happen

      Family businesses are a different animal — I have had dealings with many of the big property companies in Hong Kong – most are clan operated…. one of them required a family member to sign off on contracts worth as little as 3k per year….

      These businesses can thrive because of connections – often corrupt (there is a great book about how the major Asian business empires started – the name escapes me) … or so strongly connected in their communities it is very difficult for outsiders – who may be more capable – to challenge them.

      One semi successful expat property guy was trying to buy a building … the HK owner pinned him down on a price and then he apparently rang his mate and said – throw HKD50k on top and it’s hours. He lost the deal….

      I think the G+ thing does apply … but more so to Asia and plays with weak rule of law – and minimal laws against monopolies….

      This is certainly seeping into other countries … and there is plenty of collusion e.g. Amazon govt contracts…. but there is still intense competition and if you have MOREONS in charge… you’ll be trampled rather quickly.

      Also keep in mind there are exceptional barnyard animals who are picked up on scholarships and they are like mad dogs on bones… they keep things honest to some extent.

      End of the day these circus animals are extremely specialized now … (summer school finance… WTF)…. As are the barnyard animals.

      Nobody survives.

      I was thinking about this the other day … I had a late in the day nap and when I woke up it was dusk… all the lights were off…I was the only one home… and I was thinking … what if the power was permanently off… darkness was creeping in

      Just to shock people out of their delusions… turn off the power for 24 hours… no need to do any of the other tasks on the FE challenge… Just no power for a day…. you can use candles….and flashlights but no electricity.

      I assure you – it’s not a pleasant feeling ….particularly if you consider this is what’s coming – permanently.

      • Xabier says:

        I watched a YT vid on a challenge to ‘live like a Viking’ for a few weeks.

        The guy was actually pretty competent, but he admitted that the unaccustomed quality of the winter dark without electric or gas light – total, deep, vaguely menacing – scared the hell out of him, really unsettling.

        Highly amusing!

      • CTG says:

        FE, the good ones that your high-powered lawyer’s daughter is? That is quite rare and he is not super rich. The super rich, they party like no tomorrow.

        The Chinese has a saying – wealthy does not get past 3 generations.

        • Xabier says:

          That’s a Western saying, too: a good observation generally.

          Although in more feudal and agrarian societies wealth and social status can last for centuries, as you know. Just keep hold of that land!

          But in commercial ones it is often rags to riches to rags in three generations: not least because spending that money is such fun……

        • Fast Eddy says:

          She is from a wealthy ex Shanghai family — and the father owned the firm (founder) but they would not be classified as mega rich… no private jets etc…

          I agree the super rich would be more prone to the G disease that results in imbecility…

    • JesseJames says:

      I like your G analogy. The local G4s don’t want to work. My air conditioning contractor can’t hire people, even paying a good wage. They will sit and expect to be supported by the gov even as inflation destroys the purchasing power of what the gov gives them. Then they will resort to drug/theivery crime to support themselves, or public disorder to get what they want.
      I am amused by our media…everything is presented as life is a game to be played…life is expected to be fun and nothing else….no dirty work needed, the G4/G5s are in for a rude awakening. Their response will be either resorting to violence/crime, or apathy, leading to passive acceptance of their fate.

      • Kowalainen says:

        Eventually the rapacious primates are going to be so “busy” with game theory (that’s the favorite WtP thingy of primates) that nobody thinks about getting that tractor out on the field and gas flowing through NS1 pipeline.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I’ve seen this in 3rd world countries.. the men — unwilling to earn a living wage expect wives to work – and whenever they get $$$ they blow it on booze or cheap drugs…

        On the other hand if you take someone from that environment and pay them well they will work extremely hard…

        Problem is … the proles in the first world are realizing they will never live large .. and inflation is flattening them … so they’ll be turning to booze and cheap drugs

  38. banned says:

    Thank you for the new post Gail! Strangely indeed! Love the adjectives you select.

    Here is a documentary on the events surrounding the Ukraine revolution in 2014 that documents the involvement of some of the USA players Nuland, Biden, Hunter, Poroshenko, Obama in a somewhat detailed fashion. Its beginning it has some material relating to the false accusations of Trump regarding Russia collusion. Some red clown vs blue clown stuff. Of course we all know now that these false accusations were directly financed by Trumps political opponents. The question of who the snipers were who killed 170 people at the maidan is addressed with evidence presented that it was the country of Georgia officials that were responsible. Georgia has profound relationship with USA intelligence agency’s. Ukraine officials involved declare that assertion to be Russian propaganda. The material is dated and looks to Zelansky as a ray of hope. But because the material is dated – very pre war- it was able to be presented in a environment that amazingly was less restrictive than today. The red clown vs blue clown is present but minimal and the relationships and connections detailed are fascinating and IMO invaluable in understanding the debacle that is the very sad current state of Ukraine. Like a flashlight in the fog it largely reveals the fog but at least you know there is fog. The author compares Kiev to Casablanca a bog of intrigue deception corruption and secrets and this is pre war.

  39. Alex says:

    “Prices today are high enough to cause significant inflation (about $107 per barrel for Brent oil (Europe) and $97 for WTI (US)), but still not high enough to satisfy the high-price needs of energy producers.”
    Is it really the case? “Big oil firms set to post record profit despite gas outages.”

    “Figure 2 shows that, historically, there is an extremely high correlation between world energy consumption and the total quantity of goods and services produced by the world economy [GDP PPP].”
    GDP as a golden calf representing progress or well-being is a severely flawed metric. A few excerpts from Wikipedia:
    “It does not take into account harm to the environment.
    It does not consider human health nor the educational aspect of a population.
    GDP growth does not necessarily lead to a higher standard of living, particularly in areas such as healthcare and education.
    An economy may be highly developed or growing rapidly, but also contain a wide gap between the rich and the poor in a society.
    GDP excludes the value of household and other unpaid work.
    GDP focuses on flows, not stocks. As a result, an economy can run down its assets yet, at the same time, record high levels of GDP growth, until a point is reached where the depleted assets act as a check on future growth.”

    “Many businesses will fail. They will default on their debt; the value of their stock will go to zero. They will lay off their employees.”
    Some will. Notably those that should have never existed in the first place. Others will restructure and go on with their business, or will be taken over by competition.

    “The world economy we know today is, in fact, a self-organizing system operating under the laws of physics.”
    The world economy is only partially a self-organizing system. It also has top-down, central control components. For example, lockdowns were not a result of self-organization. Sanctions against certain energy producing countries were not imposed through self-organization. Interest rates – the price of capital (in supposedly capitalist societies) – are not determined by self-organization.

    • Thanks for bringing up these points. There are two ways of looking at everything.

      With respect to the first article, the oil and gas industry deals with depleting wells. It needs to use a significant share of its after-tax, after-dividend income for reinvestment, or its output quickly falls to zero. Big oil firms (as well as small) have not been doing nearly enough reinvestment in recent years. This is a big part of our problem. The comparison to prior years in not necessarily helpful. If the past had continued, world production oil and gas would quickly go to zero.

      With respect to the outages in export facilities, these would have sent even more of US natural gas production abroad, leading to a shortage of natural gas in the US. Current prices for US natural gas are already far above prices in recent years. (I notice that natural gas prices for US industrial users in June 2022 were $8.31 per thousand cubic feet. In recent previous years, prices had averaged the following amounts:

      2015 $3.93
      2016 $3.51
      2017 $4.08
      2018 $4.19
      2019 $3.90
      2020 $3.32
      2021 $5.50

      Thus, recent prices even without the recent export capability have been very high by historical standards. Whether or not it would even be possible to export natural gas as much as promised is a real question.

      With respect to the second item, a great deal of what every economy requires is flows, because everyone needs to eat every day, and buildings need to be heated and cooled every days. When energy flows are adequate, wage disparity is far less of a problem than it is today. The usual way to make a system work with hugely inadequate energy supplies is by giving nearly all of the compensation to one person, and holding down consumption to everyone else to the most minimal levels. The world has increasingly heading in this direction.

      With respect to the third item, there are both direct and indirect impacts of inadequate fossil fuels. The most vulnerable companies will indeed fail first, laying off their employees. The indirect impact impacts of inadequate fossil fuels include broken supply lines and loss of demand because of the many laid-off employees. Collapsing debt may be a problem as well. Eventually, all of today’s businesses and governments are likely to collapse.

    • drb753 says:

      If I may interject, there is oil and oil. Long used wells yielding conventional oil have near zero operational costs, and so if you have a few of those these days you are doing good. They do decline, at 4% a year or so. Then there is fracking oil, or sand tar oil. That costs a lot of money to produce, in labor, piping, transport, and distillation. For that one you need higher prices.

  40. Pingback: The world’s self-organizing economy can be expected to act strangely, as energy supplies deplete –

  41. Student says:

    A new Dutch scientific research finds no positive correlation between the launch of so called Covid vaccines and a possible solution to the pandemic, but finds a positive correlation between the launch of so callde Covid vaccines (plus various doses) and a excess of mortality for all causes in the Country.

  42. drhooves says:

    Excellent post Gail. I agree that economic discussions rarely include energy and physics, and very few “experts” are mentioning degrowth and contraction, which is certainly baked into the cake now on par with the sun rising in the east tomorrow morning. I keep reading articles mentioning “recession” and “recovery”, but it’s pretty clear that days of infinite growth are behind us. This time, it really is different.

    It’s impossible to predict how the disruptions will impact each factor in our lives as we adapt to an economy dealing with resource depletion, higher extraction and transportation costs, and wildly fluctuating prices. The new normal will also include the human influenced responses with wars, new laws and tax “revenue” problems, and demand destruction. Some technologies will continue to advance, but most will sputter and stagnant, or revert back to technology levels requiring less energy input.

    Back to basics for a lot of us. Food, shelter, clothing. Maybe health care and a visit to the dentist now and then. And s’mores over a campfire as a high end celebration ritual on Mid-Summer’s Eve. I’m looking forward to less noise.

    • There are several other Eastern countries that seem to be high, including Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore. Vaccinating and keeping the illness out for a time didn’t really work.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Notice how in that article low vax countries have no problems… cuz they don’t have The VAIDS

      • JesseJames says:

        In the midst of the COVID lockdown/forced masking debate the leftwinger/facists were holding up Taiwan ans their posterboy on how to handle it…i.e. tracking, etc. Didn’t seem to work longterm…

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I’m wondering if one goes to Japan if one is allowed to choose the minder… do they have any photos … can one filter ‘hot fit uni students interested in hooking up foreigners’ ….

        Does the minder stay in the same hotel room?

        These are important questions

      • ivanislav says:

        A good read.

        “This is very sad. I see grown-up men on Facebook cuddling and writing poetry with their larger mastiffs.”

        “One Tokyo woman with brain damage lived in Katsushika in her 11 square meters condo with 163 stray cats.”

        “These animals are treated like people, i.e. like life partners, conversation partners, love partners and spoiled children. This is a serious pathological illness of society.”

  43. Fast Eddy says:

    I suspect he’s correct … the NZ mass animal slaughter is surely just around the corner

    • SomeoneInAsia says:

      Have to say I do sometimes indulge in gruesome fantasies about using black magic on the miscreants who brought about so much of the mess we’re going through. Fauci. Gates. Schwab. Soros. And that close sibling of Vladimir Harkonnen currently squatting on the Chinese throne.

      Imagine making a voodoo doll of dear uncle Soros and dipping it very slowly into boiling hot oil. Feet first. Ought to be exhilarating seeing him and his ilk finally meet their comeuppance.

      • Vern Baker says:

        And here I was just fixated on guillotines, as per the French when they had finally had enough of the lies.

        • NomadicBeer says:

          Please take a breath and step back from the hate.
          Yes, they are evil psychopaths.

          But… You have to remember they have no power. What they have is money and propaganda. How many millions of policemen, teachers, doctors, nurses etc did the dirty work for them?

          Read about history. Nazi Germany is a good example. The show trials of Nuremberg punished 17 people. That did not include any regular concentration camp guard, doctor or worker – only bosses.

          I know we are supposed to be nice and kind but we have to choose between treating people like dumb animals or assuming they are as rational as we are.

          In the first case, there is no sin to kill them when they hurt others – so why not execute everyone that is guilty, from the lowliest guard to the teachers, doctors and police that helped with the genocide?

          If we assume people are rational, we have to treat them as responsible adults – so why not execute everyone that is guilty, from the lowliest guard to the teachers, doctors and police that helped with the genocide?

          So this obsession with some figurehead or other will only ensure the same thing happening again and again. Only by punishing EVERY SINGLE PERSON that hurt someone we can stop the cycle – “I just obeyed orders” won’t cut it. At the very least, they should lose everything they have and get sold as slaves – since they like to obey orders so much.

          • Vern Baker says:

            So, I hear you, and I hope you see this follow up comment. I have no intention of being violent, however, how do you communicate with these people? They seem to have no fear possibly because they feel nearly completely safe

            According to Dr Mattias Desmet, these people honestly believe they are doing something honourable, and defending what they believe to be positive.

            However, time is fleeting. The starvation cycle is getting started. That will just be wonderful during the freezing cycle starting in about four months time.

            Nothing needs to be this way, or at least not this immediately bad. But in order for the rest of us to have an adult conversation, these people need to go. They need to be pushed out so that we can start having a proper conversation about our collective, low carbon future.

            When you have no fear of people, what incentive do you have to leave?

          • Fast Eddy says:

            They are only trying to prevent much suffering … why hate them?

          • Xabier says:

            The truth is probably that on this planet the cycle can never be stopped.

            I would say all religions agree on this – due to ‘original sin’, the ‘bonds of karma’ etc, however expressed.

            This of course, is not an argument for meek passivity or blanket forgiveness.

            • Xabier says:

              Human beings – if unenlightened – have very little moral agency or self-knowledge.

              They will always ‘dance to the tune of the piper.’

              All the little people – the ones who who really make tyrannies tick – would, in a different system, be mostly harmless; apart from the psychos who will always cause trouble at some level, they must be expelled or executed as all primitive groups used to do.

          • Kim says:

            The Nuremberg trials punished people for things that either never happened or that the prosecutors themselves did on a much larger scale.

            If we are to talk about fake news, we necessarily must also talk about its Siamese twin, fake history.