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Time and time again, financial approaches have worked to fix economic problems. Raising interest rates has acted to slow the economy and lowering them has acted to speed up the economy. Governments overspending their incomes also acts to push the economy ahead; doing the reverse seems to slow economies down.
What could possibly go wrong? The issue is a physics problem. The economy doesn’t run simply on money and debt. It operates on resources of many kinds, including energy-related resources. As the population grows, the need for energy-related resources grows. The bottleneck that occurs is something that is hard to see in advance; it is an affordability bottleneck.
For a very long time, financial manipulations have been able to adjust affordability in a way that is optimal for most players. At some point, resources, especially energy resources, get stretched too thin, relative to the rising population and all the commitments that have been made, such as pension commitments. As a result, there is no way for the quantity of goods and services produced to grow sufficiently to match the promises that the financial system has made. This is the real bottleneck that the world economy reaches.
I believe that we are closely approaching this bottleneck today. I recently gave a talk to a group of European officials at the 2nd Luxembourg Strategy Conference, discussing the issue from the European point of view. Europeans seem to be especially vulnerable because Europe, with its early entry into the Industrial Revolution, substantially depleted its fossil fuel resources many years ago. The topic I was asked to discuss was, “Energy: The interconnection of energy limits and the economy and what this means for the future.”
In this post, I write about this presentation.
The major issue is that money, by itself, cannot operate the economy, because we cannot eat money. Any model of the economy must include energy and other resources. In a finite world, these resources tend to deplete. Also, human population tends to grow. At some point, not enough goods and services are produced for the growing population.
I believe that the major reason we have not been told about how the economy really works is because it would simply be too disturbing to understand the real situation. If today’s economy is dependent on finite fossil fuel supplies, it becomes clear that, at some point, these will run short. Then the world economy is likely to face a very difficult time.
A secondary reason for the confusion about how the economy operates is too much specialization by researchers studying the issue. Physicists (who are concerned about energy) don’t study economics; politicians and economists don’t study physics. As a result, neither group has a very broad understanding of the situation.
I am an actuary. I come from a different perspective: Will physical resources be adequate to meet financial promises being made? I have had the privilege of learning a little from both economic and physics sides of the discussion. I have also learned about the issue from a historical perspective.
World energy consumption has been growing very rapidly at the same time that the world economy has been growing. This makes it hard to tell whether the growing energy supply enabled the economic growth, or whether the higher demand created by the growing economy encouraged the world economy to use more resources, including energy resources.
Physics says that it is energy resources that enable economic growth.
The R-squared of GDP as a function of energy is .98, relative to the equation shown.
Physicists talk about the “dissipation” of energy. In this process, the ability of an energy product to do “useful work” is depleted. For example, food is an energy product. When food is digested, its ability to do useful work (provide energy for our body) is used up. Cooking food, whether using a campfire or electricity or by burning natural gas, is another way of dissipating energy.
Humans are clearly part of the economy. Every type of work that is done depends upon energy dissipation. If energy supplies deplete, the form of the economy must change to match.
There are a huge number of systems that seem to grow by themselves using a process called self-organization. I have listed a few of these on Slide 8. Some of these things are alive; most are not. They are all called “dissipative structures.”
The key input that allows these systems to stay in a “non-dead” state is dissipation of energy of the appropriate type. For example, we know that humans need about 2,000 calories a day to continue to function properly. The mix of food must be approximately correct, too. Humans probably could not live on a diet of lettuce alone, for example.
Economies have their own need for energy supplies of the proper kind, or they don’t function properly. For example, today’s agricultural equipment, as well as today’s long-distance trucks, operate on diesel fuel. Without enough diesel fuel, it becomes impossible to plant and harvest crops and bring them to market. A transition to an all-electric system would take many, many years, if it could be done at all.
I think of an economy as being like a child’s building toy. Gradually, new participants are added, both in the form of new citizens and new businesses. Businesses are formed in response to expected changes in the markets. Governments gradually add new laws and new taxes. Supply and demand seem to set market prices. When the system seems to be operating poorly, regulators step in, typically adjusting interest rates and the availability of debt.
One key to keeping the economy working well is the fact that those who are “consumers” closely overlap those who are “employees.” The consumers (= employees) need to be paid well enough, or they cannot purchase the goods and services made by the economy.
A less obvious key to keeping the economy working well is that the whole system needs to be growing. This is necessary so that there are enough goods and services available for the growing population. A growing economy is also needed so that debt can be repaid with interest, and so that pension obligations can be paid as promised.
World population has been growing year after year, but arable land stays close to constant. To provide enough food for this rising population, more intensive agriculture is required, often including irrigation, fertilizers, herbicides and pesticides.
Furthermore, an increasing amount of fresh water is needed, leading to a need for deeper wells and, in some places, desalination to supplement other water sources. All these additional efforts add energy usage, as well as costs.
In addition, mineral ores and energy supplies of all kinds tend to become depleted because the best resources are accessed first. This leaves the more expensive-to-extract resources for later.
The issues in Slide 11 are a continuation of the issues described on Slide 10. The result is that the cost of energy production eventually rises so much that its higher costs spill over into the cost of all other goods and services. Workers find that their paychecks are not high enough to cover the items they usually purchased in the past. Some poor people cannot even afford food and fresh water.
Increasing debt is helpful as an economy grows. A farmer can borrow money for seed to grow a crop, and he can repay the debt, once the crop has grown. Or an entrepreneur can finance a factory using debt.
On the consumer side, debt at a sufficiently low interest rate can be used to make the purchase of a home or vehicle affordable.
Central banks and others involved in the financial world figured out many years ago that if they manipulate interest rates and the availability of credit, they are generally able to get the economy to grow as fast as they would like.
It is hard for most people to imagine how much interest rates have varied over the last century. Back during the Great Depression of the 1930s and the early 1940s, interest rates were very close to zero. As large amounts of inexpensive energy were added to the economy in the post-World War II period, the world economy raced ahead. It was possible to hold back growth by raising interest rates.
Oil supply was constrained in the 1970s, but demand and prices kept rising. US Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volker is known for raising interest rates to unheard of heights (over 15%) with a peak in 1981 to end inflation brought on by high oil prices. This high inflation rate brought on a huge recession from which the economy eventually recovered, as the higher prices brought more oil supply online (Alaska, North Sea, and Mexico), and as substitution was made for some oil use. For example, home heating was moved away from burning oil; electricity-production was mostly moved from oil to nuclear, coal and natural gas.
Another thing that has helped the economy since 1981 has been the ability to stimulate demand by lowering interest rates, making monthly payments more affordable. In 2008, the US added Quantitative Easing as a way of further holding interest rates down. A huge debt bubble has thus been built up since 1981, as the world economy has increasingly been operated with an increasing amount of debt at ever-lower interest rates. (See 3-month and 10 year interest rates shown on Slide 14.) This cheap debt has allowed rapidly rising asset prices.
The world economy starts hitting major obstacles when energy supply stops growing faster than population because the supply of finished goods and services (such as new automobile, new homes, paved roads, and airplane trips for passengers) produced stops growing as rapidly as population. These obstacles take the form of affordability obstacles. The physics of the situation somehow causes the wages and wealth to be increasingly concentrated among the top 10% or 1%. Lower-paid individuals are increasingly left out. While goods are still produced, ever-fewer workers can afford more than basic necessities. Such a situation makes for unhappy workers.
World energy consumption per capita hit a peak in 2018 and began to slide in 2019, with an even bigger drop in 2020. With less energy consumption, world automobile sales began to slide in 2019 and fell even lower in 2020. Protests, often indirectly related to inadequate wages or benefits, became an increasing problem in 2019. The year 2020 is known for Covid-19 related shutdowns and flight cancellations, but the indirect effect was to reduce energy consumption by less travel and by broken supply lines leading to unavailable goods. Prices of fossil fuels dropped far too low for producers.
Governments tried to get their own economies growing by various techniques, including spending more than the tax revenue they took in, leading to a need for more government debt, and by Quantitative Easing, acting to hold down interest rates. The result was a big increase in the money supply in many countries. This increased money supply was often distributed to individual citizens as subsidies of various kinds.
The higher demand caused by this additional money tended to cause inflation. It tended to raise fossil fuel prices because the inexpensive-to-extract fuels have mostly been extracted. In the days of Paul Volker, more energy supply at a little higher price was available within a few years. This seems extremely unlikely today because of diminishing returns. The problem is that there is little new oil supply available unless prices can stay above at least $120 per barrel on a consistent basis, and prices this high, or higher, do not seem to be available.
Oil prices are not rising this high, even with all of the stimulus funds because of the physics-based wage disparity problem mentioned previously. Also, those with political power try to keep fuel prices down so that the standards of living of citizens will not fall. Because of these low oil prices, OPEC+ continues to make cuts in production. The existence of chronically low prices for fossil fuels is likely the reason why Russia behaves in as belligerent a manner as it does today.
Today, with rising interest rates and Quantitative Tightening instead of Quantitative Easing, a major concern is that the debt bubble that has grown since in 1981 will start to collapse. With falling debt levels, prices of assets, such as homes, farms, and shares of stock, can be expected to fall. Many borrowers will be unable to repay their loans.
If this combination of events occurs, deflation is a likely outcome because banks and pension funds are likely to fail. If, somehow, local governments are able to bail out banks and pension funds, then there is a substantial likelihood of local hyperinflation. In such a case, people will have huge quantities of money, but practically nothing available to buy. In either case, the world economy will shrink because of inadequate energy supply.
Most people have a “normalcy bias.” They assume that if economic growth has continued for a long time in the past, it necessarily will occur in the future. Yet, we all know that all dissipative structures somehow come to an end. Humans can come to an end in many ways: They can get hit by a car; they can catch an illness and succumb to it; they can die of old age; they can starve to death.
History tells us that economies nearly always collapse, usually over a period of years. Sometimes, population rises so high that the food production margin becomes tight; it becomes difficult to set aside enough food if the cycle of weather should turn for the worse. Thus, population drops when crops fail.
In the years leading up to collapse, it is common that the wages of ordinary citizens fall too low for them to be able to afford an adequate diet. In such a situation, epidemics can spread easily and kill many citizens. With so much poverty, it becomes impossible for governments to collect enough taxes to maintain services they have promised. Sometimes, nations lose at war because they cannot afford a suitable army. Very often, governmental debt becomes non-repayable.
The world economy today seems to be approaching some of the same bottlenecks that more local economies hit in the past.
The basic problem is that with inadequate energy supplies, the total quantity of goods and services provided by the economy must shrink. Thus, on average, people must become poorer. Most individual citizens, as well as most governments, will not be happy about this situation.
The situation becomes very much like the game of musical chairs. In this game, one chair at a time is removed. The players walk around the chairs while music plays. When the music stops, all participants grab for a chair. Someone gets left out. In the case of energy supplies, the stronger countries will try to push aside the weaker competitors.
Countries that understand the importance of adequate energy supplies recognize that Europe is relatively weak because of its dependence on imported fuel. However, Europe seems to be oblivious to its poor position, attempting to dictate to others how important it is to prevent climate change by eliminating fossil fuels. With this view, it can easily keep its high opinion of itself.
If we think about the musical chairs’ situation and not enough energy supplies to go around, everyone in the world (except Europe) would be better off if Europe were to be forced out of its high imports of fossil fuels. Russia could perhaps obtain higher energy export prices in Asia and the Far East. The whole situation becomes very strange. Europe tells itself it is cutting off imports to punish Russia. But, if Europe’s imports can remain very low, everyone else, from the US, to Russia, to China, to Japan would benefit.
The benefits of wind and solar energy are glorified in Europe, with people being led to believe that it would be easy to transition from fossil fuels, and perhaps leave nuclear, as well. The problem is that wind, solar, and even hydroelectric energy supply are very undependable. They cannot ever be ramped up to provide year-round heat. They are poorly adapted for agricultural use (except for sunshine helping crops grow).
Few people realize that the benefits that wind and solar provide are tiny. They cannot be depended on, so companies providing electricity need to maintain duplicate generating capacity. Wind and solar require far more transmission than fossil-fuel-generated electricity because the best sources are often far from population centers. When all costs are included (without subsidy), wind and solar electricity tend to be more expensive than fossil-fuel generated electricity. They are especially difficult to rely on in winter. Therefore, many people in Europe are concerned about possibly “freezing in the dark,” as soon as this winter.
There is no possibility of ever transitioning to a system that operates only on intermittent electricity with the population that Europe has today, or that the world has today. Wind turbines and solar panels are built and maintained using fossil fuel energy. Transmission lines cannot be maintained using intermittent electricity alone.
Basically, Europe must use very much less fossil fuel energy, for the long term. Citizens cannot assume that the war with Ukraine will soon be over, and everything will be back to the way it was several years ago. It is much more likely that the freeze-in-the-dark problem will be present every winter, from now on. In fact, European citizens might actually be happier if the climate would warm up a bit.
With this as background, there is a need to figure out how to use less energy without hurting lifestyles too badly. To some extent, changes from the Covid-19 shutdowns can be used, since these indirectly were ways of saving energy. Furthermore, if families can move in together, fewer buildings in total will need to be heated. Cooking can perhaps be done for larger groups at a time, saving on fuel.
If families can home-school their children, this saves both the energy for transportation to school and the energy for heating the school. If families can keep younger children at home, instead of sending them to daycare, this saves energy, as well.
A major issue that I do not point out directly in this presentation is the high energy cost of supporting the elderly in the lifestyles to which they have become accustomed. One issue is the huge amount and cost of healthcare. Another is the cost of separate residences. These costs can be reduced if the elderly can be persuaded to move in with family members, as was done in the past. Pension programs worldwide are running into financial difficulty now, with interest rates rising. Countries with large elderly populations are likely to be especially affected.
Besides conserving energy, the other thing people in Europe can do is attempt to understand the dynamics of our current situation. We are in a different world now, with not enough energy of the right kinds to go around.
The dynamics in a world of energy shortages are like those of the musical chairs’ game. We can expect more fighting. We cannot expect that countries that have been on our side in the past will necessarily be on our side in the future. It is more like being in an undeclared war with many participants.
Under ideal circumstances, Europe would be on good terms with energy exporters, even Russia. I suppose at this late date, nothing can be done.
A major issue is that if Europe attempts to hold down fossil fuel prices, the indirect result will be to reduce supply. Oil, natural gas and coal producers will all reduce supply before they will accept a price that they consider too low. Given the dependence of the world economy on energy supplies, especially fossil fuel energy supplies, this will make the situation worse, rather than better.
Wind and solar are not replacements for fossil fuels. They are made with fossil fuels. We don’t have the ability to store up solar energy from summer to winter. Wind is also too undependable, and battery capacity too low, to compensate for need for storage from season to season. Thus, without a growing supply of fossil fuels, it is impossible for today’s economy to continue in its current form.
The grim Wolfstreet stuff … is nowhere to be found on the home pages of the major business sites.
This is getting extremely serious
It would be a good time to unleash the Boston Mutation…
Inside baseball on Cushing oil contract, SPR releases and potential for “super-backwardation”
https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/p/when-spr-ends-super-backwardation
The ECB is now scrambling to not fall further behind the Fed, as the euro got hammered below parity with the dollar and as 10% inflation is tearing up consumers and the economy. It will hike all three policy rates by 75 basis points – its deposit rate to 1.5%; its main refinancing rate to 2.0%; and its marginal lending rate to 2.25% — as “inflation remains far too high and will stay above the target for an extended period,” it said today.
It “expects to raise interest rates further, to ensure the timely return of inflation to its 2% medium-term inflation target,” it said. From around 10% now, long way to go, dear.
https://wolfstreet.com/2022/10/27/ecb-hikes-by-75-bpts-to-1-5-more-hikes-to-come-starts-qt-via-loans-rather-than-bonds/
The thing is … the fundamental driver of inflation is expensive energy due to depletion …
They can fill tankers with iced gas and float them across to Europe or whatever… but that’s like taking a piss trying to douse a raging forest fire… it’s futile…
The Economics Team is up there in the HQ desperately pulling levers … pushing buttons… but the pressure is building … Bernanke’s behind the scenes screaming commands … more lever… more buttons… push hard… pull harder….
It’s mayhem in the control booth… lots of hollering and spittle is flying.
At some point they’ll give up … sit back… pour a final round of drinks… and watch this monstrous beast .. sink into the depths.
It’s looking like ROF — everyone do a final weapons check… will we get Super Fent?
That’s the big question. Doomies – if you get Super Fent the moment you start to feel nausea that’s the radiation sickness… you need to act quickly.
You are about to find out that mountains don’t stop air.
The Central Bankers essentially have two speeds, slow and fast. All they can really do is delay the impact. They can’t steer the ship around the iceberg.
https://wolfstreet.com/2022/10/27/amazon-makes-big-mess-afterhours-intel-reports-fiasco-but-mass-layoffs-boost-battered-stock-apple-hangs-on-amid-challenging-and-volatile-macroeconomic-backdrop/
BAU tonight … enjoy it … the end game is close
The great reset iz coming herr Klaus and his buddies vill own everything anyone for a 20 percent interest rate
The reason the economy is imploding is because policies put in place to try to offset the effects of expensive energy and other resources…
There can be no reset.
Ed Dowd believes there will be a reset — he is unaware of the energy problems — he thinks this is just another set up policies involving malicious intent… I suspect the great reset delusion was created to keep the finance folks from falling into despair…
they always believe that They will find a way to prevent Mad Max…
Intel reported a fiasco. Mass-layoffs perked up the stock.
Intel reported a 20% plunge in revenues, including a 27% plunge at its data-center division and a 17% plunge in its PC division. It reported a 13.4-percentage-point plunge in profit margin, a restructuring charge, and a loss before taxes. Had it not been for a $1.2 billion “tax benefit,” Intel would have had a net loss.
It cut its revenue forecast for Q4 by another 10% or so, and cut its revenue forecast for all of 2023 further, to amount to about a 20% year-over-year plunge in revenues.
What saved the evening for Intel’s stock was the announcement that it would cut costs by $3 billion in 2023, “growing to $8 billion to $10 billion in annualized cost reductions and efficiency gains by the end of 2025,” as it said. Everyone knows what those kinds of cost-cuts mean: mass-layoffs.
https://wolfstreet.com/2022/10/27/amazon-makes-big-mess-afterhours-intel-reports-fiasco-but-mass-layoffs-boost-battered-stock-apple-hangs-on-amid-challenging-and-volatile-macroeconomic-backdrop/
Death spiral begins…
BAU is coming apart at the seams… https://wolfstreet.com/2022/10/27/amazon-makes-big-mess-afterhours-intel-reports-fiasco-but-mass-layoffs-boost-battered-stock-apple-hangs-on-amid-challenging-and-volatile-macroeconomic-backdrop/
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/US-stocks-2022-10-27-Amazon.png
Oh and Amazon is only profitable due to government largesse.. they provide billions of $$$ of cloud services to Sam
But operating expenses jumped by 17.6%. Operating income plunged by 48%. Net income was only $2.87 billion – despite the operating profit at AWS of $5.4 billion, so losing money hand over fist in its retail division. On a per-share bases, net income fell to $0.28, from $0.31 a year earlier.
It’s not easy to find the game video of this season ending injury that apparently will require neck fusion surgery — first it was a concussion – then a leg injury – finally it’s a neck injury…
There is minimal contact here… this is a vax injury … a collapse …it’s being covered up
norm can identify with this – answer the question! hahaha https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/53106
Now this looks like a zombie https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/53140 not even trying to hide it
So who took the video?
This is more theatre https://twitter.com/cguld/status/1580927465341747201
And this
https://twitter.com/i/status/1581249508452667392
It even sounds staged… cuz it is
90 percent od the current energy price increase is caused by Russia, says the CEO of the Czech energy producer CEZ
https://ekonomika.pravda.sk/energetika/clanok/645132-sef-energetickeho-giganta-v-cesku-za-90-percent-zdrazovania-moze-rusko/?utm_source=pravda&utm_medium=hp-box&utm_campaign=shp_3clanok_box
and that is patently not true. the price of natgas quadrupled last November, when forever war was just a glint in the eyes of Victoria Nuland.
The problem with that is the prices were taking off months before the Ukey thing…
But hey — let’s blame Putin … that’s better than telling the MOREONS that we are running out.
Vladolf Putler is at it agin’ …!!
A piece I wrote and a piece FE wrote , with NomadicBeer’s comment, disappeared. Fortunately I saved them.
It seems some of the people at OFW still cannot stomach the end of BAU. It is not some fancy concept where the savior will arrive to end the situation. It is a permanent, catabolic stage of decline with no chance of coming back.
Measures unthinkable by today’s pampered folks will be taken. If you can’t tolerate that, that’s fine with me but I am not going to stop writing about things a lot of people might find offensive.
LOL, I suggested why can’t EV’s have a small gas powered motor or something to charge the batteries. It looks like Tesla is working on that! So much for relying on green energy.
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/watch-tesla-gas-generator-range-extender-completes-1800-mile-trip
I’m sure this was always an option. Maybe to soak the early adopters & hav something better later.
Can battery size then be reduced?
The add-on gas powered generator as a back up for the Tesla EV. LOL. Technology’s new sheep’s clothing covering the wolf. Just like NG as back up for wind and solar on the grid.
And don’t forget the cost of the generator, gas cans, electrical wires, gas, oil, and the special mounting platform attached onto the car frame, and the loss of energy from the extra step in conversion from the gas to the generator to the battery. And the extra weight the car has to carry. How those miles slip away!
Next they’ll be mounting a fan on a car mounted sail next to the generator, (if there’s room in the back)
Oh so like a Prius … hahaha…
Hang on … why not ditch the 500kg battery and replace it with …. wait for it…
An Engine! Yes an wonderful lovely shiny new beautiful engine … that is powered by petrol…
Why have two things when one will do. And you can fill er up in a couple of minutes!
https://img-new.cgtrader.com/items/2307730/b881b4095f/v8-car-engine-2020-3d-model-max-obj-3ds-c4d-lwo-ma.jpg
Yes thats exactly what a prius is and it really makes a lot more sense than a straight EV. The trouble is the nickel hybrid batteries the prius uses are totally shallow. The energy goes in fast and out fast but it has no storage capacity. This allows minimum battery weight. It must have the motor to operate its range is zero without the motor so the whole idea of charging the batteries off that green coal electric plant to transport is not valid. So what is happening makes sense in so much that the whole thing doesnt. Straight evs with deep batteries with a small engine to charge them on long runs. Except if its up to user discretion how many of those “optional” chargers get run more or less continuously?
A straight EV should be pretty light without the batteries.
Maybe thats why CA has banned these. Scared they will be used for illicit EV conversions.
https://www.harborfreight.com/brands/predator/engines/22-hp-670cc-v-twin-horizontal-shaft-gas-engine-epa-61614.html
Theres that hot chick kill the optional combustion engine!
Note to self. Optional combustion engine off while virtue signalling downtown.
The EV is a virtual signalling monster! Neutered by that optional combustion engine switch. Relationship not working out? Run the optional combustion engine 24-7. Its versatile!
The untapped power of virtue signalling awaits you!
I betcha there are hotties who would not date someone who did not drive an EV…
Hyper Green Grooopies.. / mentally ill.
There is always the option to rent an EV for a week – seal the deal – then show the true colours hahahaaha how good would that be! A faux greenie
I am no battery expert. With lead acid batteries a small gen set rather than running them into depletion pays for itself many times over. With photovoltaic systems some people give them a bump with a genset and a charger every morning before the sun hits the panels.
Good to see Gail still allows free speech. Let the wackos loose Baby!
Why don’t we have transgender rights supporters on here? Which of the 47 genders do you claim FE?
Such luxuries like 47 genders are only possible because of BAU.
“This father has never forgiven himself”
As he should – but there is more to that.
It used to be men had something called testosterone which would cause anger and desire for revenge. Read about the family feuds lasting generations over some minor slight (even Mark Twain talks about it).
It seems that one “improvement” in the last decades is the incredible reduction in testosterone in men (together with a corresponding reduction in sperm count and fertility). It’s hard to believe this was just a random thing, but who knows?
So in the end, I expect most people will be dying in the street (because of “climate change” of course), family members pulling their hair out and people passing by, being used to the sight.
After an hour of mourning, what will the survivors do? Well, go back to work of course, begging their rich boss for some crumbs. If they are sick they will turn to the insanely expensive medical “industry” and at night watch tv “programming”.
In other words, things will go on as today.
BAU forever! (with less and less people every year, and less driving, food, heating or anything else that we use today).
A real man would go to the scene of the crime demanding why they didn’t tell him this could happen … and he’d get justice
Some more info on the latest paper on Late Glacial Palaeolithic climate change and early postglacial British populations. It seems that the cold-adapted Magdalenians were basically cannibalistic reindeer-chasers who retreated to the north in pursuit of their prey as Europe rapidly thawed.
They arrived here probably ~16,000 BP, but climate warming soon overtook them. The peninsula (soon to become an island as the waters rose) was soon thick forest and the reindeer were gone. The Magdalenians were then overtaken by the warmer-adapted Villabruna who lived on fish and marine life, and who could presumably follow the rivers and the coasts.
The Late Palaeolithic cultural shift on Britain was already known, and the new paper has clarified the two distinct populations and the accompanying shift between them. It reflects the same population shift from Magdalenians to Villabruna across the continent at around the same time ~14,000 BP.
The paper seems to confirm that Late Palaeolithic population expansions and replacements were largely driven by climate change.
“Although they lived just a few hundred years after the people at Gough’s Cave, the hunter-gatherers buried about 14,300 years ago at Kendrick’s Cave, a few hundred kilometers away in Wales, would have experienced a very different postglacial Great Britain. As the environment warmed, thick forests rapidly replaced open tundra. By 14,500 years ago, “the landscape is about as different as you can get,” Stevens says.”
> Oldest British DNA reveals mass immigrations after last ice age
Genetic material recovered from two caves suggests climate change brought into new cultures and lifestyles
It’s a tale of two ancient British caves: In Cheddar Gorge, just outside of Bristol, England, reindeer hunters etched designs onto human bones and drank out of carved human skulls about 15,000 years ago. A few hundred kilometers to the north, people living just a few hundred years later lived on freshwater fish and marine animals, laying their dead to rest in a cavern with decorated horse bones and bear-tooth pendants.
Archaeologists had long thought these cultural shifts reflected people developing new tools and beliefs after the last ice age 18,000 years ago. But new evidence from the oldest known DNA from the British Isles shows the two sets of cave dwellers had dramatically different ancestry. These sweeping cultural changes weren’t signs of Great Britain’s first postglacial people adapting—they were signs of entirely new people altogether.
“In a short time frame, you can see a complete population replacement in the British Isles,” says Cosimo Posth, a geneticist at the University of Tübingen, who was not involved with the work. “It’s remarkable.”
Both caves date to the Paleolithic, a turbulent time that followed the end of the last ice age. As the climate warmed, open tundra quickly gave way to thick forests. Melting ice sheets opened up new areas for human habitation, including what is today Great Britain, which was then connected by a land bridge to mainland Europe.
A genetic analysis from two English caves, published today in Nature Ecology & Evolution suggests that as the landscape changed, populations shifted, too, with groups bringing new cultural practices, diets, and hunting strategies with them while replacing or pushing out previous populations.
Beginning about 18,000 years ago, global temperatures began to rise. Thick ice sheets that had covered two-thirds of Europe for millennia retreated. Groups of people adapted to hunting reindeer and other large mammals chased their prey north and west into newly opened frontiers. “It’s a young landscape,” says study co-author Rhiannon Stevens, an archaeologist at University College London, “with permafrost thawing and vegetation just beginning to colonize the area.”
Known as Magdalenians, these first postglacial pioneers appear genetically similar across Europe—and are a perfect match for DNA obtained from a 15,000-year-old bone found in Gough’s Cave, in what is today southwestern England. Chemical signatures from the bones in Gough’s Cave confirmed people there were eating a Magdalenian-style menu, mostly consisting of large mammals such as horses and reindeer. It’s possible they occasionally snacked on human flesh: Carved human bones and carefully crafted cups made from skullcaps suggest ritual cannibalism was part of their culture.
Although they lived just a few hundred years after the people at Gough’s Cave, the hunter-gatherers buried about 14,300 years ago at Kendrick’s Cave, a few hundred kilometers away in Wales, would have experienced a very different postglacial Great Britain. As the environment warmed, thick forests rapidly replaced open tundra. By 14,500 years ago, “the landscape is about as different as you can get,” Stevens says.
Changing vegetation and climate drove out the herds of reindeer and other large mammals Magdalenian people relied on. The genetic evidence suggests the Magdalenians disappeared, too. DNA extracted from a molar tooth found at Kendrick’s Cave looks nothing like that of the people at Gough’s Cave. Instead, it’s a match for populations found farther south in Europe, reflecting ancestry geneticists call Western Hunter-Gatherer.
New people brought new practices: The bones of the humans in Kendrick’s Cave point to a diet heavy in fish and other marine creatures. And they’re buried with no signs of postmortem modification or cannibalism. “They have very different diets, and it does seem to line up with the genetics,” Stevens says. “People seem to be moving with their habitats.”
Altogether, the different lines of evidence point to a population turnover taking place at the same time as a major environmental shift. The timing adds critical data points to genetic patterns seen elsewhere in Paleolithic Europe, where people with Western Hunter-Gatherer ancestry mingle with the earlier Magdalenian population, or replace them altogether, as postglacial tundra gives way to thick forests.
It also shows that thanks to lower sea levels, the land connecting modern-day Great Britain to mainland Europe—known to researchers as Doggerland—wasn’t a bridge to nowhere. Rather, it brought Great Britain into the larger European landscape. But it was still a long way to walk.
“Perhaps it’s not surprising to see the things happening are the same as in the rest of Europe,” says co-author Mateja Hajdinjak, a molecular biologist at the Francis Crick Institute. “What’s surprising is how fast it happens.”
https://www.science.org/content/article/oldest-british-dna-reveals-mass-immigrations-after-last-ice-age
Interesting, Mirror, thanks. Without any more details it eems to me that carved human bones and skulls for cups is pretty weak evidence for Magdalenian cannibalism as a regular cultural practice. Be interested to know what else might have led them to that conclusion. Regarding their disappearance I guess they robably just kept going north and dead-ended up in Scotland and eventually got outcompeted.
I was not updated about Magdalenian population. Thank you for this post.
https://www.pinterest.it/pin/44121271329294387/
I enjoy these deep-history posts, thank you Mirror!
hahaha
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F31e01b91-3de9-4d21-9638-0ce60bb17a27_3251x1952.png
Wow
Let’s think about this from the perspective of… norm…
So some people are dying from maybe the shots BUT! … but… nowhere near 20M… nowhere near…
The shots are saving huge numbers of lives — anyone who is trying to spread these vax injury stories is a TRAITOR to the species – a TRAITOR!
The vax deaths and injuries MUST be covered up – for the greater good.
If people stop taking the boosters ten tens of millions will die! Tens of tens of millions. Maybe even a billion!
BBC says so.
Hey norm – did I get it right?
Norm might die: that’s all he cares about as far as I can tell.
i cannot die Xabier
1–if i died, who would check the opening aria of the covid opera at 8 am NZ time every morning?—It lasts all day as you may have noticed. The star performer is indefatigable thank goodness.
2, my early death would throw the line of succession to King Herod into chaos
3, the intellectual level of some of your general comment threads, are so chortleworthy that it’s better than a workout at my gym
not so much as the staff would miss you down at your medical centre eddy
or they would–if you’d ever been in there shouting at them
and not just fantasising about it
I think they fear Fast Eddy … more than anything.
do try to cease fantasising eddy
i found you out on that one more than a year ago
the newest 18yr old behind the desk there can reduce you to obedient jelly.
you can’t resurrect a dead fantasy–once exposed to light–they wither and die.
Anecdotal evidence!
Progress requires sacrifice.
The Australian Holocaust?
Non-COVID excess deaths are 3 times greater than net COVID deaths (offset by flu, pneumonia and chronic lower respiratory conditions) and all the excess occurs since the start of the mRNA experiment.
https://metatron.substack.com/p/the-australian-holocaust
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F25ec484f-283d-490b-951b-352836f37ba7_3251x1952.png
wake me up when it is 6M chosenites plus 5M lesser ones, in ovens powered by the plentiful energy resources of a country that destroyed itself trying to get some said resources. right now it is 2000 excess deaths and I can not get worked up over it.
hahaha watch this https://www.redvoicemedia.com/2022/10/honduran-dies-suddenly-mid-interview-on-live-tv-from-a-heart-attack-last-words-thank-god-that/
even funnier https://www.the-sun.com/news/6539905/wuhan-plunged-lockdown-covid-quarantine/
He gave a new meaning to “dropping like flies”. And no one wants to question these deaths. 🧐
Bill Gates … zombie?
I am reminded of the movie Being There https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/41101
Yep, FE has been playing good cop bad cop.
I think kulm below has revealed he is an “elder”
Nice bit of doom here https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/credit-suisse-crashes-most-ever-after-admitting-it-suffered-bank-run-and-breached-liquidity
and meanwhile the CBs cram more rate hikes into the markets… to fend off hiper inflashun… but at the same time poisoning BAU.
Boom coming … then death
I like it!
it seems the US Fed and the Swiss CB were ready willing and able to give handouts to Credit Suisse to keep it afloat.
Credit Suisse could still go under soon, but the idea is to stop contagion.
Bank of England performed a similar trick last week.
that’s the new way to play the Long Endgame.
As you’re surely aware by now, the most widely-followed earnings report after the close on Wednesday was Facebook (umm, Meta), and they’re getting destroyed after hours. I first gained awareness of “The Facebook” years before most people, since their first real office was literally one block from my own in Palo Alto. Many times I would see Zuck walking around the streets, talking to employees one-on-one or, occasionally, jogging. I even remember their chalkboard sign propped up on the sidewalk encouraging applicants to come in to get a job at TheFacebook.com. Little did any of us know that it would (briefly) be a trillion dollar company. Here are some thoughts I have on the matter………..
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-10-26/metadeath
Natural selection
https://spectrum.ieee.org/hydroelectric-power
Comment on hacker news:
Obviously hydroelectricity is massively damaging to ecosystems. My day job includes designing hydroelectric control systems and even I can admit that. That’s a big part of the reason that hydro is a non-starter in much of the western world, which is probably a reasonably good thing (although there are certainly some exceptions where hydro development seems like a no-brainer to me but I digress)
What’s not so clear to me though, is why we aren’t pumping (pun intentional) massive amounts of money into hydroelectric pumped storage. These systems are capable of storing massive amount of energy cheaply, safely, and (relative to other methods) efficiently. Every single pumped storage project gets mired in protracted legal battles and they are impossible to build. Our modern energy ecosystem requires more and more storage, and somehow we are under the illusion that we can get there with overgeneration of solar and hooking up batteries. We can’t. We need storage and pumped storage is the only practical way to get there with current supply chains and technology.
with an electric pump, pump water uphill and then release it through a turbine to produce electricity.
what are the conversion losses? what are the maintenance and repair costs?
anyway, I would guess that most areas of the world don’t have any “extra” electricity production to spare for pumped storage.
I forget the guys name – but I think he’s a Scottish engineer who does energy analysis… he looked at this and determined it was not feasible. Too costly if I recall.
Amazon Implodes More Than 20% After Missing on Revenues, Disappointing On AWS, Catastrophic Guidance
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/amazon-implodes-more-20-after-missing-revenues-disappointing-aws-catastrophic-guidance
Meta Makes Huge Mess Afterhours, Enters my “Imploded Stocks,” after Tech & Social-Media Already Messed up the Day
https://wolfstreet.com/2022/10/26/meta-makes-huge-mess-afterhours-enters-my-imploded-stocks-after-tech-social-media-stocks-already-made-mess-during-the-day/
Amazon’s business revolves around cheap transportation costs in order for its business model to work. Their profit margins are low and they make up for it in sheer volume. It’s the reason behind Amazon Prime delivery as they offloaded to independents their deliveries to its customers.
What has also hurt Amazon is taxing the customers which was a huge business buying from Amazon. Now they charge sales tax in the US. Amazon was also real good as it was growing its business 10-15 years ago with NO hassle returns. Now if they flag too many returns the customer risks getting their account shutdown by Amazon. I now tend to buy from retail stores with good return policies rather than from Amazon.
There was a time when Amazon screwed up they would drop money into your account as their way of saying sorry, we screwed up so as not to lose your business. Now, that rarely happens.
Their quest for technological innovations comes at a cost and that eats into their profits. IMO, I see Amazon imploding as supply chains worsen and energy costs go way up. Their business model was low prices to the consumer.
Well said about Amazon.
The same can be said of Walmart…it depends on massive cheap stuff from Asia…but when transportation costs go up…we will go back to regional retail.
Walmart’s business model is in better shape than Amazon’s. Walmart sells low cost goods and services to its customers with local businesses renting retail space in their stores. Walmart also deals a lot with local businesses especially when it comes to produce and makes the most money on the grocery side of the store where their food supplies come within the US.
Walmart has also copied Amazon’s business strategy as well by selling an equivalent to Amazon Prime which they call Walmart+. They will do local same day deliveries to a persons home including entering a persons home, delivering and putting away groceries.
I see more and more confusing Chinese knock-offs: 37 near-identical items from 23 “companies” with improbable names.
And they keep breaking the search function to include more and more irrelevant stuff. When you’re looking for books on hand lettering or for reciprocating saw blades, you don’t want to scroll through pages of toddler LGBT books or drill bits.
It’s a real time-waster… severely diminishing returns.
Yes! “toddler LGBT books” is what progress is.
Now, is it 47 or 48 genders?
(dialogue of fantasy, 10 years ago..)
In a remote and luxury place, two friends:
– “when the fracking fiasco will be almost visible to anyone, do we have a plan to stop people using fussil fuels?”
– “Yes”
– “With climate change fear?”
– “No, few people take the bait. We will tease the bear and we’ll blow up a mess…”
(a real newspaper, today)
“The war in Ukraine and the resulting energy crisis is likely to cause global demand for fossil fuels to peak or flatten out, according to a report released Thursday by the Paris-based International Energy Agency, largely due to the decline in Russian exports.”
https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-ukraine-advances-on-kherson-putin-says-next-decade-most-dangerous-since-wwii/
@hillcountry and @van kent, re: Chris Clugston resource depletion article.
Alarming article BUT THERE’S NO SOURCE FOR THE INFO ON NONRENEWABLE NATURAL RESOURCES CITED IN THE ARTICLE. The author states, at the very end,
“Note: In this report I have integrated the exact content of the original source, to be certain that this information is retained. If you would like to read this report on the website of the original publisher I recommend you to click the source link below.
Source: http://www.wakeupamerika.com/PDFs/Increasing-Global-non renewable-Natural-Resource-Scarcity_Prelude-to-Global-Societal-Collapse.pdf.”
Uh-huh. Clicking on the link takes one to some Thai? language gambling website. A google search of “Global non renewable Natural Resource Scarcity Assessment” yields nothing.
In short, completely untrustworthy. Looks like it’s there so people can share it and discredit themselves as cranks. If you have a cite for the source material, please let me know.
good to see you tagio.
http://populationinstitutecanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/SCARCITY-by-C-Clugston-19-pg-summary-by-John-Bermingham-May-2012.pdf
https://npg.org/users/cclugston.html
A search of his name will yield quite some results. It is your choice to believe him or not, but at least he does not look like a crank.
Chris Clugston has been around since Oil Drum days. He contributed more than once there.
His early work looked at price run-ups associated with higher fossil fuel prices, but I believe that he is now looking at relative abundance as well. His more recent work is probably OK. I don’t think he is a geologist, however.
The thing I would point out is that without adequate fossil fuels, extraction of all minerals will fall precipitously. International trade will fall as well, so that our ability to import these minerals will fall even further. Trying to substitute some other mineral won’t really work because of the fossil fuel problems.
About Christoper Clugston’s ‘Blip’, I first learned about that book from https://www.thesocialcontract.com/, a white supremacist site. It is not as rabidly anti-colored sites unlike some sites but it recognizes immigration (from countries not contributing too much to civilization, i.e. what Trump had called ‘shithole’ countries) is a huge danger against USA.
With declining resources, it is unavoidable that peoples who control the resources will prioritize their use to people who are like themselves, before others.
I personally think the population waves , which favored countries which didn’t really contribute too much to civilization up to now, will significantly have to be skewed against it in order to earn the final chance for all these wondrous tech which Peter and Dennis are talking about.
I don’t really hate such tech ; in fact I think they are the last chance for humanity. But to facilitate that, a drastic reduction of the standards of living for about 90%+ of the earth’s pop has to precede it.
Silly goose. Its the high energy consumption countries slated for mothball. The low energy consumption countries are our replacement. Just as smart better work ethic and sans all these troublesome ideas about rights freedom and democracy. They may lack a certain genesai qua we call innovation but oh well. Maybe they can program it in like datas emotion chip! Most of the facilitation was moved there in preparation.
When the layoffs come the high dollar dogs are (mostly) the first to go.
Their ‘work ethic’ is useless before automation which needs no ethics.
Civilization will fall to their level in a hurry.
Re: 25 days of diesel
This shows lower levels of liquids from 2000-10.
But I’m assuming fracking oil doesn’t convert to much diesel.
https://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/747970-1.png
the US imports a lot of heavy Canadian oil to blend with the fracked LTO Light Tight Oil.
too bad US refineries can’t import even more.
I love diesel.
One has to be impressed at the stroke of luck the US had, of being able to average out two poor sources of hydrocarbons and getting in the process something similar to a mediocre sour. Also, how having Canada essentially saved Venezuela from military invasion. the US has plenty of tar, it does not need more.
There is definitely an advantage to heavy oil, even if it is sour, in that it can be used to provide a better source of diesel. I understand that there is quite a bit of the heavy oil around the world. It is expensive to extract, however, because it typically must be heated to flow in pipes. Historically, it has sold at a discount to light sweet oil. If we are to get more diesel out, perhaps it needs to trade at a higher relativity to light sweet oil.
Also, the overall price of oil likely needs to be higher.
A 2018 article claims:
https://www.americangeosciences.org/geoscience-currents/heavy-oil
Of course, only if the price is high enough can it be extracted.
If the price is life or death… isn’t that high enough?
It doesn’t translate into more drilling equipment and higher pay for workers, unfortunately.
My jerry cans of diesel in the shed are going to be worth a ton when collapse comes!
I’ll put ’em on eBay.
(Bloomberg)
U.S. ‘New England May Face a Gas Shortage This Winter’
It is hard to believe here in Italy as we are receiving promises by mainstream media that U.S. will not leave us alone about gas, but it seems that at least one U.S. State will have problems shortly about gas supplies…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-20/new-england-may-face-winter-gas-shortage-as-us-exports-surge?srnd=markets-vp&sref=fyhEsXfZ&leadSource=uverify%20wall
Happens every year. Some parts of the USA aren’t connected to any pipeline gas.
I’m sure there are pipelines at least up to Boston, but yes out in the hilltowns there are no pipelines.
it’s just not enough capacity for winter.
my understanding is that hyypocritical woketards, who most of them probably heat their big ole houses with gas, have protested successfully for years to halt the laying of much needed additional pipelines.
I recall that some gas companies then responded by saying Okay then no new customers, no gas hookups to any new construction in the cities and bigger towns.
those of us out here are far enough from the cities that there is no pipeline gas for us, though our electric supply still depends a lot on gas, perhaps as much as half the electricity generation.
The diameter of the pipelines is not sufficient for winter, up to Boston.
We don’t have buried phone or electrical wires, either. It’s simply too costly to run everything underground along roads that might only have three or four houses/mile.
On Oct. 17, the WSJ had an article called New England Risks Winter Blackouts as Gas Supplies Tighten
Grid officials warn of strain as the region competes with European countries for shipments of liquefied natural gas
The Reuters article you mention talks about a forecast of a warm winter being helpful. We will have to wait and see how that really turns out.
ECB hikes rates by 75 basis points and scales back support for European banks
PUBLISHED THU, OCT 27 2022 8:21 AM EDT
UPDATED 3 HOURS AGO
Silvia Amaro
@SILVIA_AMARO
WATCH LIVE
KEY POINTS
The ECB announced Thursday that it was changing the terms and conditions of its targeted longer-term refinancing operations, or TLTROs — a tool that provides European banks with attractive borrowing conditions.
ECB President Lagarde said the so-called “normalization” process is, however, not finished and more rate hikes are expected.
…However, because the ECB has been increasing rates faster than expected in the face of soaring inflation, European lenders are benefiting from both TLTROs and higher interest rates. The situation has been described as effectively providing a subsidy to banks.
“During the acute phase of the pandemic, this instrument played a key role in countering downside risks to price stability. Today, in view of the unexpected and extraordinary rise in inflation, it needs to be recalibrated,” the ECB said in a statement.
Therefore, it added that the interest rates applicable to the tool, known as TLTRO III, would be adjusted from Nov. 23 to match the deposit facility rate, which is the main benchmark of the ECB. In addition, banks will also be offered voluntary early repayment dates.
“In order to align the remuneration of minimum reserves held by credit institutions with the Eurosystem more closely with money market conditions, the Governing Council decided to set the remuneration of minimum reserves at the ECB’s deposit facility rate.”
This will see the cost of lending for banks rise significantly under the scheme.
More..
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/10/27/ecb-meeting-oct-2022-hikes-rates-by-75-basis-points-new-terms-for-european-banks.html
The peak in global fossil fuel emissions is just around the corner
By Anna Cooban, CNN Business
Updated 10:53 AM EDT, Thu October 27, 2022
Just around the corner…sure it is pal…closer than we can ever imagine!
The IEA said it expects global investments in low-carbon energy to increase to $2 trillion a year until the end of the decade — up 50% from today’s spending.
Government responses around the world promise to make this a historic and definitive turning point towards a cleaner, more affordable and more secure energy system,” he added.
….Russia [has] lost this market forever. And it will be very difficult [for] this Russian oil and gas [to] find a new home as big as Europe, as lucrative as Europe,” Birol told CNN’s Julia Chatterley in an interview on Thursday.
….Fears of energy shortages have led some countries in Europe and China to burn more coal this year. Hard coal power generation jumped nearly 15% between March and September in Europe in 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, according to the Independent Commodity Intelligence Services.
….Governments are putting real money on the table to accelerate the green energy [transition], not necessarily for environmental, climate reasons, but mainly for energy security reasons,” Birol told CNN.
….Despite the flurry of clean energy investment, the agency said that it expects global temperatures to rise by 2.5 Celsius (4.5 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century — well above the 1.5 Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) upper limit needed to avert severe consequences for the climate. The world has already warmed 1.2 degrees Celsius since the industrial revolution.
Governments will also need to raise their annual clean energy investments to $4 trillion by 2030 to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, the report said.
“There is still a large gap between today’s pledges and a stabilization of the rise in global temperatures around 1.5°C,” the IEA warned.
So, in a nutshell we are all cooked regardless…so why even bother?
Collapse will bring emissions down, I am sure.
Along with the number of people…Glad you are taking advantage of the friendly skies and seeing family in the Midwest and New England…two of my favorite spots…
Yes, traveling before the Holidays is very wise
Net zero you can tickle my balls, then charge my EV for free.
Campbell has a new video on the bug, interesting ideas, modeling was not very good, it seems mistakes were made. Those who made the errors have been knighted, hmmm.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxsD1UbVhGw
This whole thing is becoming an interesting study in social psychology.
Campbell admits his assumptions were also incorrect. Basic problem was case/infection fatality rate; case fatality rate is higher.
If I am correct, please feel free to comment otherwise, Campbell was one of those pushing vaccination based upon faulty data. We seem to seek importance by latching onto socially redeeming ideas.
The data starting at 10:00 minutes is interesting; it appears the chance of dying after infection was .5%, chance of not dying is 99.5% in the elderly.
So what will Europe do with 10B doses of vaccine? Simple solution, don’t pay for it?
The US seems to have a much higher death rate than Britain. We spend the most on healthcare per capita, reverse correlation? Junk food tastes great, it is horrible for health.
Dennis L.
Researchers led by Dr Andreas Nerlich of the Academic Clinic Munich-Bogenhausen, have conducted a ‘virtual autopsy’ of a mummified 17th century child, using cutting-edge science alongside historical records to shed new light on Renaissance childhood.
https://www.heritagedaily.com/2022/10/researchers-conduct-virtual-autopsy-of-a-mummified-17th-century-child/145078?amp
The virtual autopsy was carried out through CT scanning. Nerlich and his team measured bone lengths and looked at tooth eruption and the formation of long bones to determine that the child was approximately a year old when he died. The soft tissue showed that the child was a boy and overweight for his age, so his parents were able to feed him well – but the bones told a different story.
The child’s ribs had become malformed in the pattern called a rachitic rosary, which is usually seen in severe rickets or scurvy. Although he received enough food to put on weight, he was still malnourished. While the typical bowing of the bones seen in rickets was absent, this may have been because he did not walk or crawl.
Since the virtual autopsy revealed that he had inflammation of the lungs characteristic of pneumonia, and children with rickets are more vulnerable to pneumonia, this nutritional deficiency may even have contributed to his early death.
“The combination of obesity along with a severe vitamin-deficiency can only be explained by a generally ‘good’ nutritional status along with an almost complete lack of sunlight exposure,” said Nerlich. “We have to reconsider the living conditions of high aristocratic infants of previous populations.”
….He was also buried in a crypt exclusively reserved for the powerful Counts of Starhemberg, who buried their title-holders — mostly first-born sons — and their wives there. This meant that the child was most likely a first-born son of a Count of Starhemberg.
….We have no data on the fate of other infants of the family,” Nerlich said, regarding the unique burial. “According to our data, the infant was most probably [the count’s] first-born son after erection of the family crypt, so special care may have been applied.”
This meant that there was only one likely candidate for the little boy in the silk coat: Reichard Wilhelm, whose grieving family buried him alongside his grandfather and namesake Reichard von Starhemberg.
We assume todays rich and powerful will continue to be privileged in all manner after the collapse…I doubt it….Edwin is correct…doubt there will food industry will be able to provide food worthy to eat….
We assume todays rich and powerful will continue to be privileged in all manner after the collapse…I doubt it…
When the electricity goes off and there are no more police, there are no more rich either.
yes – as we can see there are already elements in society who exploit a lack of policing … see the smash and grab happening in Auckland on a regular basis.. they steal a car — ram it into a luxury shop — grab the merch and run…
If the police did not exist… the mobs would be far more brazen… keep in mind there is a fair bit of resentment for the wealthy — there are those who’d enjoy having a chance to even things up … rape and murder come to mind… the mob would want the Champagne… they’d know where to go to get it… Snob Hill right?
The police in the UK are a top down, gov controlled org and they are now the “political police” more than for law and order. My son-in-law recently had a van stolen and stripped. No investigation or charges against those responsible cause it does not fit in with their priorities. Instead, my son-in-law had to pay fees to get the van back and repaired.
But try and say something against transgenders and see how fast you are arrested….
Very interesting, Herbie.
When the Brits fought against Napoleon in Spain, they came away with a rather poor impression of Spanish aristocrats, who they summed up as tending to be short, under-exercised and weak, although presumably well-fed like that boy. And of course pale skin was prized, to show high status, so no sunlight for young Pedro!
They didn’t benefit from the British obsession with almost constant outdoor activity, especially riding, shooting, fencing and boxing, and, of course, a diet heavy in beef and game.
Brits tended to be drunks, though, while Spaniards were very sober, except in the North, undoing the good of all that exercise and god food.
They had a much better impression of the peasants, who they found to be fine and strong – no surprise in a mountainous country. They couldn’t avoid sunlight……
ya but the Brits were all inbred … giving them impressive jaw lines…
Extreme mandibular prognathism can be seen in Holy Roman Emperor Leopold I (1640-1705), whose profile dominates the illustrated silver Austrian 3 Kreuzer coin of 1670. In fact, this image contributed to his unflattering moniker ‘Leopold the Hogmouth.’ The humped nose (‘Habsburg nose’) and enlarged lower lip (‘Habsburg lip’) are also evident. On coins of later dates, these traits become more prominent for Leopold and other Habsburgs. Of course, similar findings are visible in other art forms, including myriad paintings in the Habsburg Portrait Gallery within the Upper Castle Ambras in Innsbruck. Prognathism is also obvious in Velázquez’s portrait of Philip V in the National Gallery, London, as well as in Joachim Dreschler’s sculpture of King Charles V (also extremely affected), and Albrecht Dürer’s painting of Maximilian I, both housed in the Kunsthistorisches Museum in Vienna.2 Mandibular prognathism is not always as compelling in paintings, perhaps because coins (unlike paintings) almost invariably show profiles. The severity of prognathism varied among different Habsburg members and generations. Given the extensive royal inbreeding one might have anticipated recessive inheritance, but analyses of the afflicted Habsburgs over numerous generations across several hundred years is suggestive of an autosomal dominant trait with variable penetrance, likely influenced by other genes or even homozygosity for the dominant disease allele.3 Indeed, Leopold’s parents Ferdinand III and Maria Anna, who were first cousins, may have both been affected, and Leopold’s ancestral lineage was replete with other consanguineous marriages.1,3
It is thus not surprising that the Habsburgs sustained genetic anomalies, certainly extending well beyond mandibular prognathism. More unexpectedly, clearly visible facial anomalies did not seem troubling to them, since the ruling Habsburgs could have easily ensured that these were not emphasized on contemporary coins and paintings. Alas, centuries of inbreeding eventually caught up to the Habsbugs, and severely-afflicted Spanish king Carlos II was unable to produce an heir before dying young, passing the Spanish throne to the Bourbons.1 The Austrian/German line persisted, and Leopold I produced Joseph I as his heir. As the line later became more outbred, the ‘Habsburg jaw’ largely faded.
https://hekint.org/2017/01/31/the-hogmouths-of-habsburg/
The ‘chinless wonder’ Brit is rare, but yes definitely upper class.
In fact lots of commoners entered the aristocracy on the quiet in the 19th century, because the aristos needed their shekels: many were American, also Jews and the children of super-rich industrialists.
Those people look normal, out-breeding helps!
@Van Kent – thanks for the link to the Chris Clugston article. From the end notes it looks like he wrote that in 2009. It appears to have the essential information covered in his 2019 book ‘Blip’ and is easy to send to those not inclined to buy it.
Here it is again for any here who missed it.
https://undervaluedequity.com/increasing-global-non-renewable-natural-resource-scarcity-prelude-to-global-societal-collapse/
His really is an overwhelming argument regarding the systemic collapse ahead.
Musk is somewhere getting incredible sums of money for Space X and he seems to be doing better than anyone else in this area. We are not the only one’s who recognize the problems, the solution is figuratively in the stars; it is going to be an interesting voyage for us all.
Dennis L.
He is the greatest bullshitter of all.
The stars will do nothing. No more than the chorus in the Greek tragedies who just watch the heroes die.
There will be no interesting voyages for all. At most a few people might see the space for a few days. That will be it.
That’s a very good paper.
As it suggests … 2000 was the turning point… and this supports that assertion:
The Beginning of the End of Civilization (and the Great Extinction)
JUNE 13, 2003 – There is increasing evidence that massive economic stimulus — monetary, courtesy of the Federal Reserve, and fiscal, thanks to the president and supply-side minded lawmakers — is taking hold. The magnitude of the policy turnaround, which caps a constructive, multi-year reflation process, should overwhelm the economic negatives — including the drag from expensive oil and poor finances at the state- and local-government levels.
Expensive oil and its impact on other energy costs remains a concern.
The current level of U.S. monetary stimulus is massive. Real interest rates have fallen 5.2 percent from December 2000 to March 2003, reaching -1.2 percent. A swing of this magnitude may be historical.
Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/207227/reversal-fortune-david-malpass
BAU BABY NOT!
This is the kind of deal you see when an industry is in its twilight,” said Andrew Logan, senior director for oil and gas at Ceres, a nonprofit focused on sustainability in companies and markets.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/oil-giants-sell-thousands-california-100010977.html
Some industry experts, lawmakers and environmentalists are concerned about the recent deals, noting that the sales shift environmental liability from corporate powerhouses to less-capitalized firms, increasing the risk that aging wells will be left orphaned, unplugged and leaking oil, brine and climate-warming methane. They see a threat that the state’s oil industry could repeat a pattern seen in other extractive industries like coal mining and lead to taxpayers bearing cleanup costs.
California Assemblymember Steve Bennett, a Democrat who has long worked on oil policy, has seen oil companies in his Ventura district walk away from environmental liability. “It gets passed on to a smaller company and to a smaller company until someone declares bankruptcy and the public is stuck with the cleanup bill,” he said.
IKAV enters the fray
Supermajors Shell and ExxonMobil recently agreed to sell more than 23,000 wells in California, which they owned through a joint venture called Aera Energy, to German asset management group IKAV for an estimated $4 billion. Aera accounts for about a quarter of California’s oil and gas production, largely from pumping in Kern and Ventura counties.
Shell and ExxonMobil say the deal will strengthen their businesses.
But Greg Rogers, an attorney and accountant who researches the oil and gas industry, said the deal allows the sellers to shed decommissioning costs. “You got bad assets with big liabilities, and you can get rid of both at the same time. That’s a win for Exxon and Shell,” he said.
IKAV will inherit a portfolio littered with wells past their prime. Nearly 9,000 Aera wells were idle as of early October, meaning about 38% of the company’s unplugged inventory isn’t producing oil or gas, according to state data.
“With oil being over $100 a barrel, any well that would’ve come back has likely come back,” Logan said, adding that long-idled wells are simply “orphan wells in waiting.”
In an email, Aera spokesperson Kimberly Ellis-Thompson said the company is capable of managing its large portfolio of idle wells. “Since 2019, when new idle well management program regulations were published, we have met or exceeded the requirements for retiring idle wells,” she said. The company has decommissioned and plugged nearly 1,000 wells on average every year since then, she said.
IKAV, Aera’s soon-to-be new owner, manages about $2.5 billion in energy-focused assets. News releases on the Aera sale quoted Constantin von Wasserschleben, IKAV’s chairman, as saying, “We advocate a co-existence between renewable and conventional energy for decades to come.”
As the world increasingly shifts to cheaper renewable energy to address climate change, IKAV has been snapping up oil and gas wells from supermajors exiting the market. The firm, which once focused exclusively on renewable energy, began expanding into oil and gas in 2020 when it purchased BP’s gas assets in the San Juan Basin, spanning New Mexico and Colorado. The deal was part of BP’s push to divest $10 billion in assets, including aging American gas fields.
BP declined to comment.
If it’s not profitable to return wells to production, they need to be plugged. But if a company doesn’t plug its wells before walking away, wells are orphaned and the cleanup costs ultimately fall to taxpayers and current operators through fees.
This has happened with thousands of wells in California and hundreds of thousands, or more, across the country.
Another fine mess you got me into……not to worry …Edwin claims we all die anyway from being vaxed or poisoned by the nuc pools…see it all has a happy ending!
My expectation is that this same issue of somehow transferring end of life costs to a less able payer will happen in every energy field.
I understand that wind turbine blades and all of the concrete in the systems cannot be recycled. A person would hope that previously productive farmland could be brought back to its original state, but I am doubtful this will be made to happen.
Solar panels are probably worse, because many of them are considered hazardous waste. No one has really considered the cost of keeping their elements out of the water table, I expect.
There are also coal mines around the world. Coal fired power plants, with all of their waste products, are a problem.
Nuclear power plants, with all of their hazardous waste, are a well known issue. Without fossil fuels, it becomes impossible to “fix” any of these problems.
The paragraph on solar panels is why there are none on my farm, offering price is >$1k/acre yearly rent, 15-20 year lease. Problem is the end of the lease.
There will be sufficient fossil fuels for what is necessary, discretionary will be abandoned first.
Dennis L.
Remember reading a report about”energy” and the executive pointed out no man obtained energy is “clean” (other then sun)
I suspect there’s also a method to the madness. The purchaser of these wells which I assume are largely the relatively simple, classic onshore pump and rod (pumpjack) stripper wells not using any expensive injection technologies, may be being set-up as a very useful ‘bad bank,’ whose assets with be sold for pennies on the dollar. To whom is the question. Might well just be via nationalization, and the capacity used for military outposts. Or it might stay in private hands.
The elites are just preppers, too, but on a larger scale. Big-time non-elite preppers (most certainly not including myself) have 10,000 gallon diesel tanks, spare parts, and replacement tractor fluids that will easily carry them well into the 2030s. We’re talking medium-term salvage society mode. Stripper wells in a salvage society — not getting outcompeted by ultrahigh-volume operations would have high EROEI.
Interestingly, the ‘bad bank’ started out in ‘renewables.’ It raises the specter of medium-term, grid-down, modular, intermittent stripper well production, for local use. This 2011 oil drum article, below, talks about how, for $2,000/mo in electricity these wells can produce, what, 60-3000 barrels of oil per month. Intermittent solar and wind for intermittent wells where you have to wait for borehole to fill back up. Imagine having some of these post dieoff and your imagining yourself as a well-connected
apparatchik to the local warlord. Modular mini-refineries. A warehouse full of spare parts to keep you going into the 2040s or beyond.
Also see Rockman’s comment below the article:
http://theoildrum.com/node/7947
I found an EIA report called “U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Wells by Production Rate”, which gives numbers of wells and quantities of oil pumped by size of well, up through 2020.
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/wells/
If you look at Figure 3 from this chart, it shows oil produced by total annual production (or daily rate looking at the other scale).
Stripper wells are those producing less than or equal to 15 barrels of oil per day, on average, so they represent the production at or below the dark blue line. It looks to me as if production is down a little, but not much, from the 2022 period. Recently drilled horizontal wells are starting to contribute to number/production from the stripper wells.
I notice that the reduction in production in 2020 was concentrated in the wells with larger annual volumes.
Even the wealthy are delusional. How does one protect the diesel from looters?
I suppose they create invisible force fields that keep out the spent fuel pond death particles?
You mean the big man with the 10,000gal tank? You protect the diesel by judiciously sharing it with your five or ten best friends, turning your place into a stronghold like the one in “Lucifer’s Hammer.” It’ll take at least 20 bandits willing to die for as much fuel as they can carry in order to get it. Bandits break a stronghold and the whole area is coming after them at the same time so as to make sure each of them isn’t next. And the bandits know that. Checks and balances. Cause and effect.
Apart from Indian Point (?) I think, southern California is well situated. But like Ive said numerous times, the global wave of national socialisms will create a ‘Manhattan Project’s as the central pillar of their ‘tribulations’ peace plan. The elites are the opposite of suicidal. They have one thing that they absolutely must do early on in collapse, and it’s the most obvious thing in the world to those in the know. If that wasn’t the case then almost all of us here wouldn’t be in agreement on that.
Hahaha… how many men with military training are there in America? Millions?
So how does it work – you have your guys guarding the tank 24 hours a day? Waiting?
The bad guys aren’t dumb – they pick you off with high powered rifles whenever they feel like it.
Doomie Preppers are Delusional.
Good thing about the mountains – they will block the radiation coming from the 100’s of ponds east of your position … you’ve worked it all out!
What happened to you, Eddy?
“Im sure you agree it’s better to be prepared than unprepared”
I agree 100% with you on this Renate. But I think single households need to look like you are as unprepared as every other superficial NPC to keep using those Preps.
I disagree with FE of course that preparation is futile (conventional excuse to do nothing, intellectualising cowardice and a lazy BAU comfort addiction IMO).
BUT I do agree with what FE seemed to be implying about the peasants rushing into walled encampments with the raiders come. History has proven that walled compounds with specialised fighting contingent is the most successful in raising chances for survival or even thriving . From memory, 5th – 8th century walled compounds averaged 40 acres (walls 400m x 400m), as that allowed enough space for a small village to retreat into at night.
Frankly, the people on OFW who constantly spruik doing nothing and just rolling over and dying are pathetic. No life spirit or sense of adventure at all 🙂
Marauding thieves will have a high casualty rate. In the country, their attack on one home will be heard for miles,…bringing local security militias down on them…where they will be eliminated.
that only happens in a hollywood film… in reality it’s your neighbours who realize you prepped and they attack you
In the late Roman Empire in the province of what is now France, Gaul, the Co-Emperor Maximianus had to lead a campaign against roaming bands of such, Mobs of Thieves.
The Bagaudae of Gaul are obscure figures, appearing fleetingly in the ancient sources, with their 285 uprising being their first appearance.[35] The fourth-century historian Eutropius described them as rural people under the leadership of Amandus and Aelianus, while Aurelius Victor called them bandits.[36] The historian David S. Potter suggests that they were more than peasants, seeking either Gallic political autonomy or reinstatement of the recently deposed Carus (a native of Gallia Narbonensis, in what would become southern France): in this case, they would be defecting imperial troops, not brigands.[37] Although poorly equipped, led and trained – and therefore a poor match for Roman legions – Diocletian certainly considered the Bagaudae sufficient threat to merit an emperor to counter them.[38] Maximian has been implicated in a massacre of Coptic Christian troops from the headquarters unit of a legion raised in Thebes at Aucanus in modern Switzerland in early 285, during the preparations for the campaign against the Bagaudae.[39]
Maximian traveled to Gaul, engaging the Bagaudae late in mid-285.[40] Details of the campaign are sparse and provide no tactical detail: the historical sources dwell only on Maximian’s virtues and victories. The panegyric to Maximian in 289 records that the rebels were defeated with a blend of harshness and leniency.[41] As the campaign was against the Empire’s own citizens, and therefore distasteful, it went unrecorded in titles and official triumphs. Indeed, Maximian’s panegyrist declares: “I pass quickly over this episode, for I see in your magnanimity you would rather forget this victory than celebrate it.”[42] By the end of the year, the revolt had significantly abated, and Maximian moved the bulk of his forces to the Rhine frontier, heralding a period of stability.[43]
Maximian did not put down the Bagaudae swiftly enough to avoid a Germanic reaction. In late 285, two barbarian armies – one of Burgundians and Alamanni, the other of Chaibones and Heruli – forded the Rhine and entered Gaul.[44] The first army was left to die of disease and hunger, while Maximian intercepted and defeated the second.[45] He then established a Rhine headquarters in preparation for future campaigns,[46] either at Moguntiacum (Mainz, Germany), Augusta Treverorum (Trier, Germany), or Colonia Agrippina (Cologne, Germany).[47]
I agree Faat Eddy. More importantly so does Uncle Ted (in “Hit Them Where It Hurts”, I seem to remember), Kunstler (e.g. his play, “Big Slide”), and umpteen historical examples, e.g the besieged areas in the Balkans war, where the embassies and mansions were THE FIRST targets of the militia gangs after looting, as they were built the strongest, had best high gates and security fences, basements, large pantries, and fuel reserves, exactly what the militias wanted as home bases.
Look a cyclone Katrina aftermath too, where the looters only failed to get to 1 wealthy area (they were armed and prepared), but they couldn’t have held out for long, as the looters themselves admitted they were targeting rich homes first. I could give a score more examples, but the whole idea that some rich dude with hired mercy is tge best way to survive an extended SHTF scenario is fundamentally flawed.
The mob — will go to where the food is. That is guaranteed.
Rich first – then anyone with a garden – some animals – a stocked pantry.
There is no way to protect a farm from a hungry mob – or from an armed band of trained nasty men.
There is a reason the peasants scrambled into the castle during invasions.
Doomies = Delusional.
There are no guarantees in life. You seem to be talking about urban situations which is a different kettle of fish. Im sure you agree it’s better to be prepared than unprepared. Plentiful fuel and chainsaws and heavy equipment can make a town completely inaccessible except by several days on foot, while still enabling ingress and egress. And that’s just the first thing you do in a worst case scenario. With plenty of fuel you can stop foot traffic, too.
Spent fuel ponds… sorry but mountains won’t protect you.
Do you have neighbours? Can you feed them?
No doubt there will be a sorting and a winnowing…and lots of dying. But in the instance of rural North America…a stability will sort out after a while.
Do you think anyone remaining will think life is easy…heck no
Do you think anyone remaining will sit on the rears and wait for the criminals…doubt that too.
Long range rifles can go both ways…
I ain’t got no military training… but I’m thinking … if it was me….
Let’s say I was one of millions living in rural areas … during BAU I noticed a few people around the valley were into the prepping thing.. didn’t take much notice of these chicken littles with their big gardens …
But I do have me guns and stuff … cuz that’s what Mericans do… I got me some automatic ones too — and I got lots and lots of bullets… maybe 5000+… I like shootin you know… I shoot at anything … cans bottles … just like the feel of that gun in my hands… I am a pretty good shot…
So’s when it all goes to pieces… and I am hungry… first I go to one of the doomies and asks for some food — he says – not another one – scram you varmint — I ain’t got enough for anyone else – this food is all mine… he’s got a gun too so I don’t want to start nuthin up right then and there so I says — I git it .. thanks anyways…
So I goes home… and load up my most accurate rifle… then that night I goes out and finds myself a nice spot 200m from the doomies house… I hide myself in a bush … or behind a tree.. or whatever… then when the sun comes up … I wait…
The doomie comes out to milk the cow or take a shit or whatever … KAPOW … I plug that mutherf789ker in the head… he drops dead… that’ll serve him right for not sharin his vittles!
Then I will walk over to his shack and see what’s for breakfast… his wife’ll be a bit shocked at first… she’s a bit of an old goat but the dotter’s sure lookin good .. she’ll be 20ish… perfect… KAPOW to the wife after breakfast… and now we’re all set…
Then the next week I’m goin out to take a morning dump … and KAPOW … darn it if ain’t some other guy with a high powered rifle and a scope…
Didn’t even last long enough to get cancer from the spent fuel ponds
The End.
Doomie Prepping = Delusion.
That’s why nobody takes the Fast Eddy Challenge.
Talk the talk. Never walk the walk
But hey keep on watching those doomie prepper shows on the Tee Vee – and feedin the delusion hahaha It’s a big adventure right – can’t wait hahaha
Like I said to Luddite, there are no guarantees in life. You hate the man who takes responsibility for his family during collapse because you have abdicated yours. You reap what you sow.
Keep in mind anyone with food — will be a target.
If you try to resist… things will likely go very badly for you…. humans are cruel animals.
So there is significant downside to your stance… then there is the cancer from the ponds.
This is what the Fent is for … it’s there for when delusion runs into a very painful reality…
It’s a get out of hell free pill.
We’ll leave one hell of a mess behind .. but nothing a million or so years won’t clean up.
(Informazione.it)
Judicial enquiry on Pfizer Italy.
It seems that they gained too much in the Country, selling too many vaccines.
So it seems that they tried to transfer gains in other subsidiaries to avoid Italian taxes…
https://www.informazione.it/n/221B0009-10D8-4287-98F8-FA8678B974D1/Pfizer-nella-bufera-si-sospetta-una-maxi-evasione-in-Italia
Gosh, where to put the blood money when you are wading in it…….
(Reuters)
‘Credit Suisse seeks billions from investors in make-or-break overhaul’
Credit Suisse is not going well at all…
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/credit-suisse-says-raise-4-billion-francs-capital-2022-10-27/
The price of Credit Suisse stock seems to be -19% today. Selling price per share about $3.87.
Another Lehman’s event coming soon….the end is near!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=crhm6YSMfdY&t=25s
Holy smokes..
Among other things, Credit Suisse is laying off 9,000 employees. Michael Cowan says to expect lots of employee layoffs from other troubled banks as well.
Return on tangible equity was -38% last quarter.
He sees this as just the beginning. Many of the high flying stocks (including META and Alphabet) are falling. People are starting to max out their credit cards. All this will adversely affect banks in general.
I am seeing warnings that Goldman Sachs bonuses will be down significantly — I think I read their Asian Ibanking business was off 1/3….
BAU is seizing up
Amazon stock down about 10% today.
Paid actors … anyone who has ever been into the lobby of a building heavy with finance companies would know that you need an ID badge to get past the security.
https://t.me/leaklive/9948
U.S. government lab in Maryland plans to create a hybrid monkeypox strain that is more deadly than one currently spreading in highly controversial research in mice.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11349241/Lab-Maryland-plans-create-hybrid-monkeypox-strain-contagious-lethal.html
Italy heating laws https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/52922
Student – can you confirm?
The Italian government signed a law beginning of this month that it reduces dates and time for heating, but it reduces also the ‘conventional’ temperature insed houses to 19° C instead of 20.
I think it will be very difficult to make controls (even if they are not excluded), expecially I see very difficult about controls for temperature.
I think that it is possible that some authority can make checks about if heating are on or off.
‘Piano di riduzione dei consumi di gas naturale previsto dal Mite con questo decreto che posticipa di 8 giorni la data di accensione dei termosifoni e anticipa di 7 giorni lo spegnimento. Date che variano a seconda delle sei zone climatiche individuate in Italia.
Per cui a Milano anziché il 15 ottobre il riscaldamento partirà il 22 e sarà spento il 7 aprile anziché il 15; a Roma, invece, il riscaldamento previsto dal primo novembre fino al 15 aprile sarà dall’8 novembre al 7 aprile. La temperatura nelle abitazioni, che è fissata a 20 gradi per convenzione, dovrà scendere a 19.’
https://www.ansa.it/canale_ambiente/notizie/energia/2022/10/06/riscaldamenti-arriva-il-decreto-con-nuovi-limiti-e-orari_1d20bb00-cabc-41af-9180-1c2d86e2c6e0.html
Heating Gestapo … they monitor your usage … and come pounding on your door and force you to turn down the heat!
Or it could all be theatre.
We’ll soon see.
Trying turning your heat up to 23 and see what happens 🙂
Given no smart meters, this will be unenforceable.
I propose that we create airborne HIV so that we can study how to combat it, should it ever arise! What could go wrong?
Hello FE, I’ve already replied to you also with a link. I
made it from another PC.
I don’t know if my reply is on hold for my link or I made myself a mistake.
In case if I don’t see it, I will find again my link and repost it.
It is roughly correct unfortunately.
Reduction of period of heating and reduction of temperature thorugh a recent law by previous government.
Possible checks, but I see it very diifficult to make it.
Maybe possibile check if heating is on or off.
https://www.leggo.it/italia/cronache/riscaldamento_termosifoni_nuove_regole_casa_19_gradi_ultime_notizie-6911664.html
https://www.leggo.it/italia/milano/milano_termosifoni_accensione_austerity_caro_bollette_comune_piano_energia_elettrica-7012155.html
(Il Tempo)
”Judicial inquiry in Italy against Pfizer”
”According to Bloomberg news agency, Pfizer allegedly transferred €1.2 billion in profits to divisions in other countries to avoid paying taxes on profits’ in Italy.”
Maybe they realized that they had gained too much money in Italy with too many taxes in that stupid Country…
https://www.iltempo.it/attualita/2022/10/26/news/pfizer-fatturato-italia-indagine-profitti-nascosti-33634020/
Pfizer is not stupid.
true, but they have a long history of corrruption.
Boom https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-mortgage-interest-rates-jump-716-highest-since-2001-2022-10-26/
They can blame Fizzer heart attacks on that
There is a long delay in reporting sales information on existing homes. It was only a few days ago that August sales results were reported. Thus, those making decisions on raising rates are working with quite old data.
There is also the issue of the lag between when the rate is locked in, and the closing date. The house sales being closed in August were likely based on interest rates available in July, or sooner. People’s decision to look for a different home was likely made even sooner than that, based on yet-earlier interest rates.
Betcha these folks back then thought their BAU was forever more and was eternal line Rome itself..
In AD 44, Emperor Claudius annexed Mauretania and established the Roman provinces of Mauretania Tingitana and Mauretania Caesariensis. Volubilis became a centre of trade, exporting commodities such as grain, olive oil, and wild animals for arenas across the Empire. This allowed the city to grow substantially, and by the end of the 2nd century AD had a population of around 20,000 inhabitants
“On the basis of satellite images, we selected several sites that have a common feature: an oval plan with a rectangle or a square inscribed in it. We chose this particular site because it is located farthest to the south. there could be a place associated with the presence of the Roman army “- says Maciej Czapski, archaeologist, PhD student from the University of Warsaw and a member of the Polish-Moroccan research group.
Excavations revealed the foundations and walls from a Roman observation tower, preserved to a height of around 80 cm. Within the structure, the researchers found the remains of an internal staircase and fragments of cobblestones on the south side that surrounded the building.
Supporting evidence that places the tower from the Roman period are indicated by the discovery of several military artefacts such as javelins, nails from Roman sandals and fragments of belts used by Roman legionnaires.
The researchers believe that the tower dates from between the 1st and 3rd century AD, with the team suggesting that the tower was in use during the reign of Antoninus Pius around the 2nd century AD based on finds dating to that period.
https://www.heritagedaily.com/2022/10/roman-observation-tower-uncovered-in-ancient-city-of-volubilis/145066?amp
With the city of Rome a major imported …what could possibly go wrong?
Was that a good posting, I wonder; or was the wine bad and no easy women for miles and miles….. Sounds like the latter. I hope they rotated regularly!
Gail… can we set up the “end of the civilized world” betting pool?
Everything seems to be “a few weeks”
1. 25 days of diesel (check out the comments as well : https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/major-fuel-supplier-code-red-diesel-crisis-hits-southeast )
2. Mid terms and perhaps its associated chaos post election
3. Credit Suisse and DB
4. Japan bond market is dead
5. China is xxx. Fill in the xxx
6. Russia winning Ukraine
7. Freezing Europe.
Anything else? Which will be the cause?
We put in USD$5 and the winner can collect the payout in the afterlife…..
1. it was 25 days last week, and it’s still 25 days. What is my prize?
3. Credit Suisse is bailed out with digital money, a lesson TPTB learned back in 2008/2009. What is my prize?
5. Zen Master says China is bAU into the 2030s.
6. Russia has already won the Great Russian Reset, and the West just doesn’t know it yet.
7. not many people freezing, but EU industry totally “frozen”.
everyone should send me $5, and I will keep it safe.
Confucius says bAU tonight, baby.
25 days based on last EIA report. We wait for next month to see if it is -5 days.
or +5.
I can wait patiently.
things get worse, sometimes better.
it’s just the long Endgame.
Michael Cowan is flipping and flapping and flopping ..
2 weeks away
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=buHHlfA6dNo
Holy Smokes
Thanks, David, what⛄a relief…just finishing up my letter to Santa Claus and CTG had me ready to tear it up…thanks to you can post it to the North Pole by snail mail.
Archeologists have found the tomb that holds the remains of Saint Nicholas underneath an ancient church in Turkey. Nicholas, who became the basis for the Christmas character Santa Claus, died more than 1,600 years ago.
“This is an extremely important discovery, the first find from that period,” Fox News quoted Osman Eravsar, chairman of the Antalya Cultural Heritage Preservation Regional Board, as saying about the discovery in a church in the Demre town in southern Turkey.
After rising sea levels in the Mediterranean submerged the church, a second church was built there centuries later.
“Now we have reached the remains of the first church and the floor on which Saint Nicholas stepped,” Eravsar said, according to The Daily Mail. “The tiling of the floor of the first church, on which Saint Nicholas walked, has been unearthed.”
Probly fake..
The ‘end of the civlised world’ with climax in the period 2026-2033.
This is according to the Limits to Growth update from Gaya Herrington.
Interestingly, the Biblical ‘Great Tribulation’ also lasts seven years, and 2033 is exactly 2000 years after the death and ressurection of Christ. Spooky…
not saying the world isn’t screwed–it most certainly is
but I believe they were saying much the same thing in 1000 AD
Norm, read on that night the then Pope had a gathering of the people to be together for the end of the world…After midnight…nothing happened…the Pope dismissed the crowd….BAU baby
as was so typical of ancient humans, the (5th-7th century?) backward calculation of the year 1 AD was very probably off by a few years.
Jesus (why did the angel tell Joseph to give his son a Greek name?) was likely born in 3 or 4 BC.
so the 2,000th anniversary of his death is actually…
wait for it, this is so good…
2030!
tada!
wow, that year keeps appearing again and again.
I’ll take #4.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nalAeGRyHOE
Things do look worrying. My response has been to schedule my out-of-town trips very soon. This follows the theory, “A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.”
I flew to Milwaukee, Wisconsin, a little over a week ago for a high school reunion and a visit to one of my sister’s homes.
Tomorrow, I will be flying to Minneapolis, Minnesota, for a wedding on Saturday of one of my nieces. I will see several relatives there. I will be returning home Sunday.
Not long after that, I plan to visit my daughter, daughter-in-law and grandson in the Boston, Massachusetts area, for a short time.
If nothing else, this approach avoids travel during the very busy holiday periods, when chances of disruption are high. If things are still OK later, I can schedule more trips. My view has been, “Enjoy life now while you can.”
My thinking as well.. I shortened my drive trip to from 15 to 10 days… instead of driving up the WA coast I will fly… I am very reluctant to take a long haul flight anywhere even if it was not a major hassle… unless I know I can get some Super Fent on demand at the destination.
Customs officer opens your bag:
“Ah I see, you have super fent ?”
“I dunno how that came here?”
“Don’t worry, it’s ok, have a nice trip”
A brand new archaeogenetics paper on Late Palaeolithic Britain identifies two genetically distinct groups, reflecting the broader picture of population shift on the continent. It is the oldest genetic data from Britain hitherto. We really are being spoilt with such papers right now, but the picture is still not fully clear yet quite that far back.
The Magdalenians probably weathered the Ice Age in SW Europe, were cold-adapted, and retreated to the north along with the cold and in pursuit of the cold-adapted species on which they preyed; they reached Britain maybe ~15,500 BP. The Villabruna cluster is Near Eastern-related and seems to have largely replaced Magdalenians on the continent ~14,000 BP as Europe warmed, and also on Britain maybe ~12,000 BP.
Some mixture occurred in Europe and maybe on Britain, but Magdalenian is no longer detectible in modern populations and it seems to have been basically gone for thousands of years. WHG and indeed Mesolithic British WHG were descended from Villabruna rather than Magdalenians.
The population of Britain was entirely replaced in the Neolithic anyway, and again >90% in the Bronze Age, ~50% again in the Middle to Late Bronze Age, and ~65% again since the Early Middle Ages. But the Palaeolithic picture is interesting nevertheless. The new paper has more details about the Palaeolithic than I have briefly recounted.
> Dual ancestries and ecologies of the Late Glacial Palaeolithic in Britain
…. Main
…. These studies have revealed numerous instances of genetic shifts indicative of population expansions. One of the most notable examples occurred during the Late Glacial, between the end of the LGM (~23,400 calibrated years before present (cal. BP)) and the start of the Holocene epoch (~11,700 cal. BP). This shift is reflected in the ancestries associated with the ~15,090-year-old (IntCal20) Goyet Q2 individual, Belgium, and the ~14,010-year-old (IntCal20) Villabruna individual, Italy, in post-LGM Europe. We use these individuals as shorthand for the ancestries associated with them throughout the text. ‘Goyet Q2’ ancestry, which has previously been defined by the ~18,770-year-old (IntCal20) ‘El Mirón’ individual from Spain, has been identified in individuals associated with the Magdalenian culture, dating from ~20,500 to 14,000 cal. BP. This Goyet Q2/El Mirón ancestry has been suggested to represent a post-LGM expansion from southwestern European glacial refugia.
The ‘Villabruna’ ancestry, also broadly known as Western hunter gatherers or WHG, consists of individuals dated from ~14,000 to 7,000 cal. BP associated with Epigravettian, Azilian/Federmesser, Epipalaeolithic and Mesolithic cultures. The Villabruna ancestry is also associated with the observation that from ~14,000 cal. BP, all European individuals show some level of genetic affinity to present-day Near Eastern populations.
….Results
…. We used admixture modelling with qpWave and qpAdm50,51 to explore the ancestry of the Gough’s and Kendrick’s Cave individuals in more detail. We used the Goyet Q2 and Villabruna individuals as potential source populations. We modelled the Gough’s individual as having single-source Goyet Q2 ancestry (P = 0.841) and the Kendrick’s Cave individual as having single-source Villabruna ancestry (P = 0.646). All other single-source models can be rejected (P << 0.001). Interestingly, all Mesolithic individuals from Britain, except Cheddar Man, can also be modelled as having un-admixed Villabruna ancestry in this analysis. Cheddar Man, an individual also recovered from Gough’s Cave and dating to 10,564–9,915 cal. BP (IntCal20, 9,100 ± 100 14C BP (OxA-814)), is instead best modelled as having 84.6% (±0.5%) Villabruna-related ancestry and 15.4% (±0.5%) Goyet Q2-related ancestry (Fig. 4)
…. Discussion
Combined, the genetic results and AMS dates from these individuals indicate the presence of two genetically distinct groups in Britain in the Late Glacial period. This is evident through both the differential mitochondrial haplogroups of the two individuals analysed here and also through their distinctive ancestral patterns. The Gough’s Cave individual shows clear affinity to Goyet Q2 ancestry, whereas the Kendrick’s Cave individual shows affinity to Villabruna (WHG)…. However, our analyses demonstrate that Villabruna ancestry was already present within Britain during the Late Glacial. This suggests that the emergence of Villabruna ancestry in Britain predates the Holocene. It is possible that there may have been more than one migration of Villabruna ancestry into Britain however—perhaps, for example, a secondary migration at the start of the Mesolithic period—but our data do not currently have the resolution to comment on this possibility.
It is important to note, however, that the temperate climate of the Late Glacial Interstadial and the early Holocene was punctuated by the Younger Dryas Stadial (~12,900–11,700 BP, broadly equivalent to GS-1), when temperatures were notably colder, ice sheets expanded in Scotland and reindeer once again became the dominant fauna in the cave sites of southwest Britain. Currently, there are no radiocarbon determinations documenting human presence in the British Isles during the Younger Dryas. Although this may be the result of taphonomy and preservation issues, if a gap in human presence is real then this indicates more than one migration of Villabruna ancestry into Britain may have occurred.
…. Nonetheless, our qpAdm modelling indicates that Goyet Q2 ancestry persisted in Britain until at least 15,070 cal. BP and potentially as late as 14,610 cal. BP based on the modelled boundary start and end dates for Gough’s Cave. The appearance of people in southwest England before the Interstadial warming and soon after the earliest evidence for reindeer and horse returned to the landscape, combined with this Goyet Q2 ancestry, suggests that these people may have come from Magdalenian populations that had remained isolated during the LGM and early Late Glacial from more southerly populations where admixed Goyet Q2 and Villabruna ancestry is evident. Indeed, it is perhaps the post-LGM climate amelioration and Late Glacial rapid climatic warming, causing key cold-adapted prey species to contract to more northerly latitudes, which facilitated this—in effect, a retreat to the north by Magdalenian cold-adapted populations. From at least 13,800 to 13,240 cal. BP (Kendricks_074, 95% confidence, OxA-17089) however, Villabruna (WHG) ancestry appears in Britain and persists into the Mesolithic, being replaced only at the start of the Neolithic with the emergence of agriculture. The source population for this ancestry and its route into Britain remains unclear but the rapid climatic warming of the Late Glacial Interstadial, which resulted in substantial environmental change, may have provided new ecological opportunities for human populations….
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-022-01883-z
News story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/10/221024131042.htm
is this for real??? https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/1583773491144581124
showed it to the wife , she says ya for sure that can happen….yes they are being forced into quarantine but when Chinese don’t want to do something they throw themselves on the ground….yes look draconian to westerners but its kind of normal for china at same time…she didn’t think big deal haha
(friend whose wife is from Shanghai – has friends family in China)
Helps keep order. Reduces energy consumption. Let’s people know that someone is watching what is going on and reacting.
Dowd – post GFC ‘zombie economy’ – Yup. https://rumble.com/v1pw58t-ed-down-joins-warroom-to-discuss-grim-outlook-on-global-economy.html
You can’t make this stuff up! But fortunately, you don’t need to.
Pro-Vaxxer Radio DJ Dies Live on Air During His Morning Show
“It is with the heaviest of hearts that I have to inform you, our dear friend and breakfast host Tim Gough passed away this morning whilst presenting his program.
Our love to his family, son, sister, brother and mum.
Tim was doing what he loved. He was 55 years old.
RIB buddy. x”
https://www.hollywoodlanews.com/radio-dj-dies-live-on-air/
Of course, all along there have been people dying suddenly of heart attacks. This man was 55 years old, which is a popular age for heart attacks, particularly for men.
Dr Peter McCullough offers his explanation why we are seeing SADS among young people. He is one of the top physicians in this field.
https://www.globalresearch.ca/people-dying-their-sleep-linked-vaccines-explains-dr-peter-mccullough-cardiologist/5797171
this also explains why people talking on camera or performing on stage are collapsing and/or dying, when it almost never happened before the jabs.
they are “live” in front of their audience and even though they are not “exercising”, their hearts certainly are pumping at a faster rate.
the data presented by some substacks is clear, that their heart damage reveals itself an average of about 5 months after being jabbed.
Probably people dying in the VIP rooms by the hundreds… of course nobody talks about that
I have suffered from irregular heartbeats since 2005 and take medication to control it. But what McCullough said rings true because prior to taking my heart medication. I would sometimes wake up with my heart beating real fast and irregular. Back then I was in my 40’s and did lots of running and exercise which probably helped. But I can see how a person could get a heart attack and die as the body was ready to wake up because that’s when my heart would go bonkers. It was the night before I did some running and my heart went nuts right before I awoke.
I highly recommend avoiding Bolivian Blow.
Have you looked into the relationship between magnesium deficiency and heart problems?
It would seem that Mg is lost via sweating….so if a person is not getting enough Mg from food/supps…intense exercise will only exacerbate the deficiency….
“Have you looked into the relationship between magnesium deficiency and heart problems?”
Yes I have as a matter of fact. It was mentioned to me several years ago by a heart specialist in the US. It was recommended that I eat 1/4 cup of pumpkin seeds or even sunflower seeds every day as it’s loaded with magnesium. I was told that most who are admitted to hospital for heart related problems are low on magnesium.
a local high school girl on a cross country running team died in her sleep last week.
a local 30ish EMT, a fit man based on his photo, died suddenly also last week
I am also hearing about the reality of turbo cancer:
an older guy 70+ diagnosed with a “very rare” and “very aggressive” cancer… a “new” drug helped him to get better a few months ago, but it came back and he’s dead.
a guy with cancer in his jaw, a non smoker, a healthy runner, yeah jaw cancer in a man with no lifestyle issues.
a mid 60s guy diagnosed with an aggressive prostate cancer.
are you kidding me?
I have never ever heard of prostate cancer being anything but slow growing and not life threatening.
I know of at least a few more, too many to mention.
ps: the cancer people are mostly alive, so they don’t show up in cancer death statistics… yet.
These headlines are becoming all too common.
The banality of vax death.
What the pro vaxxers tell me when they get a glimpse of this stuff is ‘this has always been happening – the only reason we are seeing these videos of people dying now is because anti vaxxers want to blame the vax’
on all the sudden death… yawn….. wake me up when the sheep connects the dots (never will)
The thing is …
If a zombie connected the dots it would go insane…
Truth they cannot handle… they have way too much invested in this situation (including having injected there kids)… that they will only dig in deeper.
This is the genius of the pseudo-vaccines: they kill in ways that have always occurred, just at a greater rate, and an earlier age.
But to families without access to mortality stats, it’s just one unfortunate and isolated occurrence that struck out of the blue.
At what point do companies start having a requirement that new hires be unvaxxed… cuz you really don’t want to spend time and money onboarding someone who is likely to be dead or unable to work….
Anyone who is unvaxxed and eyeing a promotion — should be encouraging more senior managers to get boosted.
Or to get an inheritance a little sooner…..
After all, it’s only natural to encourage one’s rich relations to take the best care of themselves.
But there would be no point really, as it’s all going to Poof!
How about it goes like this … for a bit of irony… you tell the family you had a change of heart and got all your shots… tell them they were right what were you thinking…
They’ll really appreciate you coming to your senses…
Then you start to work on the ones with $$$ — you offer words of encouragement — you drive them to their booster appointments…
And they leave you a big sack of $$$ because you were so kind to drive them to the clinic so many times.
The reality is you murdered them by driving them to the clinic… but you won’t be charged.. cha-ching..off to the VIP room for some Bolivian and hot uni students making a bit of side line cash to pay their heating bills!
Exactly my line of thought, FE: I was shocked at how wicked I could be….in theory.
‘Kind Hearts and Coronets’ for the Vaxx Age.
In reality I’ve told my richest relation, of whom I am the sole heir, not to get vaxxed whatever they do.
St Xabier
“It is with the heaviest of hearts that…”
they have no clue about their irony.
maya it’s all an illusion
that’s fine by me
I’m not azteknically educated as others are
but it can’t be an illusion and that’s fine by me
Eddy;
If Musk is truly ending censorship on twitter will you establish a presence there? I would love to see that. Because Hoolio with your help might well take over the world!!! They key to world domination is dog pictures. Once you have that the rest is childs play. We would of course require your presence now and then here at OFW lest some of the more feeble commit seppeku from your absence.
Elon Musk is a major actor in the theatre… he is playing a role handed to him by the Elders and the PR Team…
The code name for him is Tech Messiah … his role is to represent Hope… he is propped up with tax credits and all sorts of assistance for the purpose of convincing the MORE-ONS of the Great Transition.
Notice all the theatre around his ‘acquisition’ of Twatter… it’s dragged on for months… more hopium … that finally — a blow against tyranny! It’s all fake..
If there is tyranny it is the tyranny of the Elders… and they are hardly going to allow anything that challenges their global dictatorship.
Recall The Club. Musk is in The Club. He would know that it is impossible to destroy The Club – and why would he want to — he has a private jet etc…
Even if he could destroy The Club — to what point? He already has anything he wants. Why get into a fist fight with a 2000lb bully who is impossible to beat – when the bully already gives you everything?
The Twitter thing is just more entertainment … like watching sports… there is no substance.. it’s just what they give us to occupy our time while we wait to die.
Since theRealDonaldTrump was banned from twitter it became useless.
I would also think that it will be much better for the moarons if it stays useless. Unfortunately Elon is again messing with stuff from the unlimited checkbook.
Ah, St Elon.
I’ve even seen people say things like:
‘He’s a technocrat, but maybe he’s our technocrat, not one of the evil bastards’.
Too funny for words.