When the Economy Gets Squeezed by Too Little Energy

Most people have a simple, but wrong, idea about how the world economy will respond to “not enough energy to go around.” They expect that oil prices will rise. With these higher prices, producers will be able to extract more fossil fuels so the system can go on as before. They also believe that wind turbines, solar panels and other so-called renewables can be made with these fossil fuels, perhaps extending the life of the system further.

The insight people tend to miss is the fact that the world’s economy is a physics-based, self-organizing system. Such economies grow for many years, but ultimately, they collapse. The underlying problem is that the population tends to grow too rapidly relative to the energy supplies necessary to support that population. History shows that such collapses take place over a period of years. The question becomes: What happens to an economy beginning its path toward full collapse?

One of the major uses for fossil fuel energy is to add complexity to the system. For example, roads, electricity transmission lines, and long-distance trade are forms of complexity that can be added to the economy using fossil fuels.

Figure 1. Chart by author pointing out that energy consumption and complexity are complementary. They operate in different directions. Complexity, itself, requires energy consumption, but its energy consumption is difficult to measure.

When energy per capita falls, it becomes increasingly difficult to maintain the complexity that has been put in place. It becomes too expensive to properly maintain roads, electrical services become increasingly intermittent, and trade is reduced. Long waits for replacement parts become common. These little problems build on one another to become bigger problems. Eventually, major parts of the world’s economy start failing completely.

When people forecast ever-rising energy prices, they miss the fact that market fossil fuel prices consider both oil producers and consumers. From the producer’s point of view, the price for oil needs to be high enough that new oil fields can be profitably developed. From the consumer’s point of view, the price of oil needs to be sufficiently low that food and other goods manufactured using oil products are affordable. In practice, oil prices tend to rise and fall, and rise again. On average, they don’t satisfy either the oil producers or the consumers. This dynamic tends to push the economy downward.

There are many other changes, as well, as fossil fuel energy per capita falls. Without enough energy products to go around, conflict tends to rise. Economic growth slows and turns to economic contraction, creating huge strains for the financial system. In this post, I will try to explain a few of the issues involved.

[1] What is complexity?

Complexity is anything that gives structure or organization to the overall economic system. It includes any form of government or laws. The educational system is part of complexity. International trade is part of complexity. The financial system, with its money and debt, is part of complexity. The electrical system, with all its transmission needs, is part of complexity. Roads, railroads, and pipelines are part of complexity. The internet system and cloud storage are part of complexity.

Wind turbines and solar panels are only possible because of complexity and the availability of fossil fuels. Storage systems for electricity, food, and fossil fuels are all part of complexity.

With all this complexity, plus the energy needed to support the complexity, the economy is structured in a very different way than it would be without fossil fuels. For example, without fossil fuels, a high percentage of workers would make a living by performing subsistence agriculture. Complexity, together with fossil fuels, allows the wide range of occupations that are available today.

[2] The big danger, as energy consumption per capita falls, is that the economy will start losing complexity. In fact, there is some evidence that loss of complexity has already begun.

In my most recent post, I mentioned that Professor Joseph Tainter, author of the book, The Collapse of Complex Societies, says that when energy supplies are inadequate, the resulting economic system will need to simplify–in other words, lose some of its complexity. In fact, we can see that such loss of complexity started happening as early as the Great Recession in 2008-2009.

The world was on a fossil fuel energy consumption per capita plateau between 2007 and 2019. It now seems to be in danger of falling below this level. It fell in 2020, and only partially rebounded in 2021. When it tried to rebound further in 2022, it hit high price limits, reducing demand.

Figure 2. Fossil fuel energy consumption per capita based on data of BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

There was a big dip in energy consumption per capita in 2008-2009 when the economy encountered the Great Recession. If we compare Figure 2 and Figure 3, we see that the big drop in energy consumption is matched by a big drop in trade as a percentage of GDP. In fact, the drop in trade after the 2008-2009 recession never rebounded to the former level.

Figure 3. Trade as a percentage of world GDP, based on data of the World Bank.

Another type of loss of complexity involves the drop in the recent number of college students. The number of students was rising rapidly between 1950 and 2010, so the downward trend represents a significant shift.

Figure 4. Total number of US full-time and part-time undergraduate college and university students, according to the National Center for Education Statistics.

The shutdowns of 2020 added further shifts toward less complexity. Broken supply lines became more of a problem. Empty shelves in stores became common, as did long waits for newly ordered appliances and replacement parts for cars. People stopped buying as many fancy clothes. Brick and mortar stores did less well financially. In person conferences became less popular.

We know that, in the past, economies that collapsed lost complexity. In some cases, tax revenue fell too low for governments to maintain their programs. Citizens became terribly unhappy with the poor level of government services being provided, and they overthrew the governmental system.

The US Department of Energy states that it will be necessary to double or triple the size of the US electric grid to accommodate the proposed level of clean energy, including EVs, by 2050. This is, of course, a kind of complexity. If we are already having difficulty with maintaining complexity, how do we expect to double or triple the size of the US electric grid? The rest of the world would likely need such an upgrade, as well. A huge increase in fossil fuel energy, as well as complexity, would be required.

[3] The world’s economy is a physics-based system, called a dissipative structure.

Energy products of the right kinds are needed to make goods and services. With shrinking per capita energy, there will likely not be enough goods and services produced to maintain consumption at the level citizens are used to. Without enough goods and services to go around, conflict tends to grow.

Instead of growing and experiencing economies of scale, businesses will find that they need to shrink back. This makes it difficult to repay debt with interest, among other things. Governments will likely need to cut back on programs. Some governmental organizations may fail completely.

To a significant extent, how these changes happen is related to the maximum power principle, postulated by ecologist Howard T. Odum. Even when some inputs are inadequate, self-organizing ecosystems try to maintain themselves, as best possible, with the reduced supplies. Odum said, “During self-organization, system designs develop and prevail that maximize power intake, energy transformation, and those uses that reinforce production and efficiency.” As I see the situation, the self-organizing economy tends to favor the parts of the economy that can best handle the energy shortfall that will be taking place.

In Sections [4], [5], and [6], we will see that this methodology seems to lead to a situation in which competition leads to different parts of the economy (energy producers and energy consumers) being alternately disadvantaged. This approach leads to a situation in which the human population declines more slowly than in either of the other possible outcomes:

  • Energy producers win, and high energy prices prevail – The real outcome would be that high prices for food and heat for homes would quickly kill off much of the world’s population because of lack of affordability.
  • Energy consumers always win, and low energy prices prevail – The real outcome would be that energy supplies would fall very rapidly because of inadequate prices. Population would fall quickly because of a lack of energy supplies (particularly diesel fuel) needed to maintain food supplies.

[4] Prices: Competition between producers and customers will lead to fossil fuel energy prices that alternately rise and fall as extraction limits are hit. In time, this pattern can be expected to lead to falling fossil fuel energy production.

Energy prices are set through competition between:

[a] The prices that consumers can afford to pay for end products whose costs are indirectly determined by fossil fuel prices. Food, transportation, and home heating costs are especially fossil fuel price sensitive. Poor people are the most quickly affected by rising fossil fuel prices.

[b] The prices that producers require to profitably produce these fuels. These prices have been rising rapidly because the easy-to-extract portions were removed earlier. For example, the Wall Street Journal is reporting, “Frackers Increase Spending but See Limited Gains.”

If fossil fuel prices rise, the indirect result is inflation in the cost of many goods and services. Consumers become unhappy when inflation affects their lifestyles. They may demand that politicians put price caps in place to somehow stop this inflation. They may encourage politicians to find ways to subsidize costs, so that the higher costs are transferred to a different part of the economy. At the same time, the producers need the high prices, to be able to fund the greater reinvestment necessary to maintain, and even raise, future fossil fuel energy production.

The conflict between the high price producers need and the low prices that many consumers can afford is what leads to temporarily spiking energy prices. In fact, food prices tend to spike, too, since food is a kind of energy product for humans, and fossil fuel energy products (oil, especially) are used in growing and transporting the food products. In their book, Secular Cycles, researchers Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov report a pattern of spiking prices in their analysis of historical economies that eventually collapsed.

With oil prices spiking only temporarily, energy prices are, on average, too low for fossil fuel producers to afford adequate funds for reinvestment. Without adequate funds for reinvestment, production begins to fall. This is especially a problem as fields deplete, and funds needed for reinvestment rise to very high levels.

[5] Demand for Discretionary Goods and Services: Indirectly, demand for goods and services, especially in discretionary sectors of the economy, will also tend to get squeezed back by the rounds of inflation caused by spiking energy prices described in Item [4].

When customers are faced with higher prices because of spiking inflation rates, they will tend to reduce spending on discretionary items. For example, they will go out to eat less and spend less money at hair salons. They may travel less on vacation. Multiple generation families may move in together to save money. People will continue to buy food and beverages since these are essential.

Businesses in discretionary areas of the economy will be affected by this lower demand. They will buy fewer raw materials, including energy products, reducing the overall demand for energy products, and tending to pull energy prices down. These businesses may need to lay off workers and/or default on their debt. Laying off workers may further reduce demand for goods and services, pushing the economy toward recession, debt defaults, and thus lower energy prices.

We find that in some historical accounts of collapses, demand ultimately falls to close to zero. For example, see Revelation 18:11-13 regarding the fall of Babylon, and the lack of demand for goods, including the energy product of the day: slaves.

[6] Higher Interest Rates: Banks will respond to rounds of inflation described in Item [4] by demanding higher interest rates to offset the loss of buying power and the greater likelihood of default. These higher interest rates will have adverse impacts of their own on the economy.

If inflation becomes a problem, banks will want higher interest rates to try to offset the adverse impact of inflation on buying power. These higher interest rates will tend to reduce demand for goods that are often bought with debt, such as homes, cars, and new factories. As a result, the sale prices of these assets are likely to fall. Higher interest rates will tend to produce the same effect for many types of assets, including stocks and bonds. To make matters worse, defaults on loans may also rise, leading to write-offs for the organizations carrying these loans on their balance sheets. For example, the used car dealer Caravan is reported to be near bankruptcy because of issues related to falling used car prices, higher interest rates, and higher default rates on debt.

An even more serious problem with higher interest rates is the harm they do to the balance sheets of banks, insurance companies, and pension funds. If bonds were previously purchased at a lower interest rate, the value of the bonds is less at a higher interest rate. Accounting for these organizations can temporarily hide the problem if interest rates quickly revert to the lower level at which they were purchased. The real problem occurs if inflation is persistent, as it seems to be now, or if interest rates keep rising.

[7] A second major conflict (after the buyer/producer conflict in Item [4], [5], and [6]) is the conflict in how the output of goods and services should be split between returns to complexity and returns to basic production of necessary goods including food, water, and mineral resources such as fossil fuels, iron, nickel, copper, and lithium.

Growing complexity in many forms is something that we have come to value. For example, physicians now earn high wages in the US. People in top management positions in companies often earn very high wages. The top people in large companies that buy food from farmers earn high wages, but farmers producing cattle or growing crops don’t fare nearly as well.

As energy supply becomes more constrained, the huge chunks of output taken by those with advanced degrees and high positions within the large companies gets to be increasingly problematic. The high incomes of citizens in major cities contrasts with the low incomes in rural areas. Resentment among people living in rural areas grows when they compare themselves to how well people in urbanized areas are doing. People in rural areas talk about wanting to secede from the US and wanting to form their own country.

There are also differences among countries in how well their economies get rewarded for the goods and services they produce. The United States, the EU, and Japan have been able to get better rewards for the complex goods that they produce (such as banking services, high-tech medicine, and high-tech agricultural products) compared to Russia and the oil exporting countries of the Middle East. This is another source of conflict.

Comparing countries in terms of per capita GDP on a Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) basis, we find that the countries that focus on complexity have significantly higher PPP GDP per capita than the other areas listed. This creates resentment among countries with lower per-capita PPP GDP.

Figure 5. Average Purchasing Power Parity GDP Per Capita in 2021, in current US dollars, based on data from the World Bank.

Russia and the Arab World, with all their energy supplies, come out behind. Ukraine does particularly poorly.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is between two countries that are doing poorly on this metric. Ukraine is also much smaller than Russia. It appears that Russia is in a conflict with a competitor that it is likely to be able to defeat, unless NATO members, including the US, can give immense support to Ukraine. As I discuss in the next section, the industrial ability of the US and the EU is waning, making it difficult for such support to be available.

[8] As conflict becomes a major issue, which economy is largest and is best able to defend itself becomes more important.

Figure 6. Total (not per capita) PPP GDP for the US, EU, and China, based on data of the World Bank.

Back in 1990, the EU had a greater PPP GDP than did either the US or China. Now, the US is a little ahead of the EU. More importantly, China has come from way behind both the US and EU, and now is clearly ahead of both in PPP GDP.

We often hear that the US is the largest economy, but this is only true if GDP is measured in current US dollars. If differences in actual purchasing power are reflected, China is significantly ahead. China is also far ahead in total electricity production and in many types of industrial output, including cement, steel, and rare earth minerals.

The conflict in Ukraine is now leading countries to take sides, with Russia and China on the same side, and the United States together with the EU on Ukraine’s side. While the US has many military bases around the world, its military capabilities have increasingly been stretched thin. The US is a major oil producer, but the mix of oil it produces is of lower and lower average quality, especially if obtaining diesel and jet fuel from it are top priorities.

Figure 7. Chart by OPEC, showing the mix of liquids that now make up US production. Even the “Tight crude” tends to be quite “light,” making it less suitable for producing diesel and jet fuel than conventional crude oil. Chart from OPEC’s February 2023 Monthly Oil Market Report.

Huge pressure is building now for China and Russia to trade in their own currencies, rather than the US dollar, putting pressure on the US financial system and its status as the reserve currency. It is also not clear whether the US would be able to fight on more than one front in a conventional war. A conflict with Iran has been mentioned as a possibility, as has a conflict with China over Taiwan. It is not at all clear that a conflict between NATO and China-Russia is winnable by the NATO forces, including the US.

It appears to me that, to save fuel, more regionalization of trade is necessary with the Asian countries being primary trading partners of each other, rather than the rest of the world. If such a regionalization takes place, the US will be at a disadvantage. It currently depends on supply lines stretching around the world for computers, cell phones, and other high-tech devices. Without these supply lines, the standards of living in the US and the EU would likely decline quickly.

[9] Clearly, the narratives that politicians and the news media tell citizens are under pressure. Even if they understand the true situation, politicians need a different narrative to tell voters and young people wondering about what career to pursue.

Every politician would like a “happily ever after” story to tell citizens. Fortunately, from the point of view of politicians, there are lots of economists and scientists who put together what I call “overly simple” models of the economy. With these overly simple models of the economy, there is no problem ahead. They believe the standard narrative about oil and other energy prices rising indefinitely, so there is no energy problem. Instead, our only problem is climate change and the need to transition to green energy.

The catch is that our ability to scale up green energy is just an illusion, built on the belief that complexity can scale up indefinitely without the use of fossil fuels.

We are left with a major problem: Our current complex economy is in danger of degrading remarkably in the next few years, but we have no replacement available. Even before then, we may need to do battle, in new ways, with other countries for the limited resources that are available.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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4,563 Responses to When the Economy Gets Squeezed by Too Little Energy

  1. Fast Eddy says:

    European bank loan books look WORSE than US peers
    Europe is better equipped to deal with a liquidity crisis than the US, but if this evolves in to a credit crisis, which is a fair assumption by now, European loan books look MUCH worse than in the US.


    • I suppose the poor quality of the loan book is related to the high price/unavailability of fossil fuels in Europe. Debt was entered into, back when things were better.

  2. Fast Eddy says:

    Jason replied to a comment on Is Geert’s Prediction of a Deadlier Covid Variant Coming True?.

    That seems very likely. Just 2 weeks ago a 7yo local girl caught something (flu, nobody knows) but she died suddenly the next day like her body couldn’t fight it off. My friends wife is a school teacher and had this girl in her class. Now what’s crazy is just yesterday another girl from the same class had Strep A which spread to her lungs. She’s now in the ICU. It’s like their bodies are unable to fight off other diseases now.


  3. Fast Eddy says:

    Are those making the noise paid by the NZ govt?

    Here’s the scene today in Auckland, when British feminist Posie Parker (née Kellie-Jay Keen-Minshull) tried to speak at a women’s rally in that city, in order to address the conflict between feminism and transgenderism:


    Cuz I dunno a single person who would bother to attend such a rally in support of these FREAKS.

  4. moss says:

    These are some nice juicy yields CBB is recording this week
    “Global conditions are tightening, with negative ramifications for unsound banks, companies and markets everywhere. And is there any country where unsound pervades the entire system as it does in China? (mandatory mud-slinging)

    “Country Garden’s (#1 developer) bond yields surged 370 bps this week to 30.17%, the high since December 1st. Kaisa yields spiked almost 10 percentage points to 140% – the high since November. Longfor yields were also up almost 10 percentage points to 105% (high since Dec.). Evergrande yields rose another 543 bps this week to 182%.”

    yee hah! 182% yields.
    I wonder where the Evergrande money went?

    • China has a big debt problem, too, with all of the unfinished condos and other buildings. It energy supply stopped growing, creating a problem finishing them.

      • moss says:

        yeah, but if they’re all as broke as each other; countries, banks, insurance and future obligations; who in all this global tottering ponzi could stand and righteously point the finger at anyone else.
        May I rephrase Noland’s question: Is there any national financial system today that is “sound”? serious question …

        • reante says:

          No, of course not. China is toast. We knew that the moment Ordos went up. That’s not sound policy. And then all the others went up! 🙂

          All the mudslinging and, conversely, the cheerleading, is just cover for the universal unsoundness.

  5. Fast Eddy says:

    US Mulls More Support for Banks While Giving First Republic Time


    How about they throw ten trillion at this… not enough? 50 trillion ….

    I sent that clip of the guy discussing the CB policy since GFC which has culminated in a situation where they raised interest rates to try to address rapid inflation — but that has resulted in insolvency for the banks… to a friend who is stressing because he has been following the school of thought that everything goes up forever and leveraging up to the hilt on various assets particularly property… he didn’t watch cuz it was boring…

    I gave him as close to a Tweet version as possible and he could not understand why the banks were insolvent so I explained what happens when interest rates rise and how that craters the value of earlier issues of bonds…

    He is confident that ‘they’ will be able to sort this out…

    The take away here is the same as the take away from the Rat Juice… for the most part circus animals just follow the herd…. they don’t actually think for themselves… they are not interested in even trying.

    I am sure everything will be fine in the coming week… Doosh Bank will be fixed… the financial system will be returned to solvency… the fact that rates cannot fall significantly if at all will lead to hyper inflation … and as they continue to rise they drive the system deeper into insolvency causing who knows what unintended consequences….

    ‘They’ have it completely under control.

    • First Republic is out in San Francisco, like Silicon Valley Bank. I wonder if that co-incidence has something to First Republic’s problems. I know that California, including San Francisco, has been losing a lot of population.

  6. Herbie Ficklestein. says:

    Where Humans go junk follows..

    NASA hopes to clean up space junk; experts say the days of uncluttered night skies are “over”
    High-powered lasers and special robots that collect junk are among the proposals for cleaning up orbital debris
    Staff Writer

    We have to learn how to live in our own filthy bathwater at this point.”

    Dr. Moriba Jah’s words were hardly reassuring…It’s like plastics in the ocean,” Jah continued. “Just like we’ll never have pristine oceans, we’ll never have pristine land. It’s done.”

    earlier this month on “orbital debris remediation.” Like the amateur cosmologists who bemoan polluted skies, the NASA scientists express hope that their future scientific missions will not be compromised by errant debris. Yet the scientists are also concerned about how space debris like discarded equipment, non-functioning satellites, machine fragments and even paint chips can hinder “the use of space upon which critical infrastructure of the U.S. economy relies, such as communications, national security, financial exchanges, transportation and climate monitoring.”

    NASA’s cost-benefit report urges a wide range of methods for cleaning up debris to the greatest extent feasibly possible: Lasers, both ground-based and space-based, that can zap away vast quantities of small debris (anything between 1 and 10 centimeters across); “just-in-time collision avoidance,” meaning attaching lasers or rockets to satellites and other important spacecraft to push away debris; and deploying “sweeper” spacecraft that would physically pick up various debris items.

    report that “for small objects, lasers are the most reasonable approach.” These small objects can still cause significant damage because they travel at speeds of over 17,000 miles per hour, so “removing these is a good start because the benefit is the fastest of all the ones considered. Ground-based lasers are more feasible at this time.”

    Unfortunately, despite the consensus view that space junk is a serious problem which urgently needs to be addressed, ongoing developments on Earth continue to make it worse. As just one example, Elon Musk’s company SpaceX plans on sending vastly more satellites into orbit even though astronomers already complain that his existing satellites interfere with scientific observations.

    ….Cassidis drew attention to “Kessler Syndrome,” or a scenario in which satellites or space junk collide, generating ever more space junk, in an escalating cycle that soon becomes unmanageable. Picture a satellite collision creating debris, then that debris knocking into other debris, which creates even more debris that collides with (and thereby further creates) even more debris, and so on. Such an event could ultimately kill astronauts on space stations, knock out communications and transportation infrastructures, and wreak all kinds of unforeseeable havoc.

    Haha 😂..See Eddie maybe you can tell them it’s just a hoax…just lidding

    • There is nothing we can do about space junk. No one can trace who it belongs to. Every high school class sends up a satellite. There is no real way to go backward. This is a problem for Space Solar.

      • Herbie Ficklestein. says:

        Oh, that’s bad news for global communications and finance..
        If space junk escalates into Kessler syndrome that means curtains for the Space Force and Digitial Economic structures..
        Ahh, that’s too bad..
        Thanks Gail for the news! It should bring cheers to you know who

  7. MG says:

    Yesterday, I visited the concert of this guy from Slovakia named Maok in Planetarium Ostrava, Czech Republic.

    Enjoy this video of his relaxing music:


    • Fast Eddy says:

      I was disappointed that he didn’t collapse with a vax injury…. seems to be a thing these days

  8. Lastcall says:

    This quote, from an article partly about aids, seems to sum up many narratives now;

    Liam Scheff called it a “religion of death.” There was no way to defeat its illogical premises, as it was designed never to have to explain any of its wild contradictions. If you doubt HIV’s deadly powers, you’re a danger to society. Those who have enriched themselves in its infinite “mysteries,” are to my mind virus occultists. If you cross them, they will hurt you badly. They do this in the name of “saving lives.” HIV must not be questioned. Sorry, denied.’

    Applies to so many of todays ‘religions’; ESG, DEI, Climate, Identity Politics, Ukraine, Convid, etc etc. There can be no possibility of open debate when the govt feeds the trough at which these parasites exist.
    Contradictions are the tools of tyrants.

    As linked by FE earlier.

  9. Dennis L. says:

    Well, this could be interesting; sex for recreation, but not procreation.


    Sounds like something a man would build. Basically a pair are to mix genes and divide workload. These look like true designer children.

    Again, the fabric of the universe took billions and billions of years to create biology, might not be as simple a project as the headlines suggest.

    Have to wonder what a feminist will say about this.

    Dennis L.

  10. Student says:

    (Jerusalem Post + Arutz Sheva)

    ….let’s try an escalation in Syria against Iran…

    ”Syrian reports: Israel carried out air strike on Aleppo airport”

    ”Attacks on Iran-linked targets in Syria to draw prompt response – Iran security spokesperson”

    ”US Joint Chiefs Chair Army General Mark Milley speaks with US forces in Syria during an unannounced visit at a US military base in northeast Syria, March 4, 2023.”



    • Minority of One says:

      With the USA giving so many weapons, financial support and military intelligence to the Ukronatzees, it would seem rather appropriate for the Russians to assist Syria in a similar fashion.

  11. Ed says:

    Titles from rense.com my things are getting interesting.

    US At DEFCON 3 – Mass Launch of Nuclear Missile
    Detection Vessels Along with Ballistic Submarines,
    4 E-6B Mercurys fly, 3 E-6B ‘Doomsday planes’ took
    off In The US, One landed in Europe

    Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev
    Warns of ‘Nuclear Apocalypse’

    Ellsberg Calls on Us to Stop Nuclear War

    Russia claims it will nuke Ukraine over
    any attempt to retake Crimea

    • Sounds worrying!

    • reante says:

      Thanks Ed!

      Classic set-up of course against the backdrop of the banking crisis. A set-up timed on necessity. Keep your heads, everyone, it’s just a big scare. If they’re doing it as cover for the banking crisis (peak oil) then they’re doing it for systemically ‘constructive’ reasons – for the Degrowth Agenda (DA). Hopefully none of us get unlucky WRT our location. Hopefully it’s just a Starfish Prime deal but it’ll probably go beyond that I’m guessing. And include a nuclear power plant fallout, too, somewhere along the way.

    • Minority of One says:

      “Russia claims it will nuke Ukraine over any attempt to retake Crimea”

      This does not make any sense. The Russian forces have the Ukrainian army outnumbered and out-gunned, ready to take the whole of Ukraine when the ground dries out. I just can’t see Medvedev et al believing that there is the slightest possibility of Ukraine getting past Russian lines never mind re-taking Crimea. And why would Russia want to nuke a next door neighbour where the radio-active clouds are going to head for – Russia?

      • reante says:

        All of the Russian bureaucratic warnings about nukes come in the context of an existential crisis, so when it says something nuke-related in the context of Crimea it’s not JUST talking about Crimea. It’s talking about the overall cost-benefit analysis WRT to the existential crisis posed by NATO’ bureaucracy’s ever increasing existential threat posturing.

        Above the bureaucracies that fulfill their mechanical destinies as the death machines that they are sit the supranational Elites in full control, because the bureaucracies are headed by Yes Men. Yes Men are Yes Men because they answer to somebody.

        It’s like my body-first explication of disease from yesterday, for anybody who caught that – if the MSM is controlled by Yes Men answering to supranational Elites then we can know that the militaries function the same way because the militaries evolved before the MSM ever did, and global civilization grows from the inside-out — from the core functions to the peripheral functions — just like everything else. So the Yes Men MSM is a trailing indicator patterned on the Yes Men military.

        None of the militaries exist without the banking system. That’s why the militaries are covering for the banking system failure, so that it can restructure in such a way as to prioritize the militaries’ continued existence as jig has been talking about. That won’t be a capitalist-driven prioritization for much longer.

        Then we can look at the evolution of the military itself. It’s core, primary evolutionary function has always been to control the land within its defined borders. Projecting power beyond it’s borders is a secondary, peripheral function. This ‘WW3 big nuclear scare’ serves to subconsciously remind people at home, at the dawn of collapse, just who’s boss. It’s a show of force at a time of great weakness. French police laying down their batons is neither here nor there – that’s mere political theater. Martial law is coming. Hard rationing cannot be implemented without martial law.

  12. Yoshua says:


    Distressed corporate debt rises to $295B amid a rise bankruptcies

    Gail I think that the formula is Global Macro Invest groups own? Perhaps it’s Raoul’s own?

    • Rising debt defaults will certainly push the banks farther along toward bankruptcy. We are only at the beginning of this.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Monday’s are now officially my favourite day of the week!

        I do love surprises.

      • Bobby says:

        Do Banks go bankrupt or just their depositors?

        • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

          the USA gov is trying to make depositors 100% whole even if their bank goes under.

          it seems to be a sound idea to not let the average “customers” of banks be harmed by the fooolishness of bank management.

          without 100% deposit insurance, the bank runs would be getting totally out of control, by last week at the latest.

          new normal?


          • The foolishness of the banks is to write loans that cannot pay back sufficiently profitably. The connection you have missed is that these same companies that took out loans to fund their companies also have payroll and other expenses to meet every week. They make big deposits in the same bank from which they took out the loans. The companies taking out unprofitable loans tend to operate in areas like green energy (subsidized, but not enough) or commercial real estate (too often empty).

            Subsidizing these companies encourages more similar unprofitable companies to continue and to grow. The world economy cannot operate with huge numbers of unprofitable companies.

            I know that there were problems holding long term Treasuries in the case of Silicon Valley Bank. But it also had other problems with declining deposits in total. Silicon Valley Bank also didn’t have as many households doing their banking with it, providing a stable base of accounts under $250,000. It was all the “big” account holders. It was the combination of problems, together with a downgrade by a rating agency that pushed the bank under. It also helped that social media told spread the world among those businesses at the bank to transfer their accounts elsewhere.

        • Banks used to go bankrupt. After a very bad recession in 2008-2009, governments are anxious to keep every bank solvent. That is the reason for all of the quick work in trying to save these banks now.

  13. Yoshua says:


    Bankruptcies in the US have started to spike. The Fed and Treasury will have a problem in saving the banks if the bottom falls out of the economy.

  14. Jef Jelten says:

    To put it another way if the US had not taken over the natural resources of over a 100 countries and suppressed their growth and development we would have hit peak oil and other strategic resources decades ago.

    Now that the easy to produce, economically viable resources have been mostly used up all of those countries are nationalising their resources and industries and will be using what little viable resources they do have mostly for themselves. This will take massive amounts of oil off the market very rapidly.

    Instant Peak Oil!
    Instant Zombie Alpacalips!

  15. Yoshua says:


    America Inc. is a zombie
    A 1.75% GDP growth isn’t even enough to pay the interest on debt. When the interest rate is 2.0% and the debt is 200% of GDP the payment on just the interest is 4% of GDP.
    This is why America Inc. needs QE and ZIRP every 3 1/2 years as payments are due.

    • I hadn’t thought about GDP Growth = Population Growth + Productivity Growth + Debt Growth.

      Productivity growth comes from growing leveraging of human labor by the use of more “tools” (broadly defined) created and operated using fossil fuels.

      Where is this formula from? If I use it in a post, I would like a reference. Debt growth has been a big share of GDP growth for a long time.

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        It is usual put, from what I have seen, that GDP growth strictly relies on labour expansion (not all of the populace labours) and productivity growth.

        Debt facilitates the two strict factors, but not in any way with strict outcomes. Investments based on debt often fail, like with most start ups, and companies need more or less debt depending on their profits/ finances.

        The first two factors are strict, while debt is more complicated and ordered to the two strict mathematical factors of GDP growth.

  16. Herbie Ficklestein. says:

    I joke that my 2013 Nissan will be my last car to others…but it’s no joke…

    Why there may be no return to ‘normal’ for the U.S. used vehicle market
    PUBLISHED SAT, MAR 25 2023 8:00 AM EDT
    Michael Wayland


    A notable decline in used vehicle prices toward the end of last year has been roughly cut in half in 2023, as inventories remain low following vehicle-production disruptions.

    The pause in new vehicle production during the pandemic has upended the used vehicle market and there’s no easy solution in sight anytime soon.

    Cox Automotive doesn’t expect the total number of used sales to return to pre-pandemic levels until at least 2026.

    A notable decline in used vehicle prices toward the end of last year has been roughly cut in half in 2023, as inventories remain significantly down following vehicle-production disruptions. There’s also been an uncharacteristically large number of consumers buying out leases to avoid sky-high car prices and increasing interest rates.

    “It looks like it will persist for some time,” said Chris Frey, senior industry insights manager at Cox Automotive. “It’s really a function of this hole in new production, creating a dynamic where wholesale or general used values are higher because there are millions of fewer new vehicles that would eventually turn into used.”

    Cox reports the average listed price of a used vehicle was $26,068 in February, the most recent data available, down from records last year of more than $28,000 but significantly higher than the roughly $22,000 average it reported two years ago. Retail prices for consumers traditionally follow changes in wholesale prices.

    So, what’s the solution? There’s no other course but an increase in new vehicles being produced in order to boost the number of future used models. Automakers are expected to lift production this year, but they’ve also pledged to not overbuild like they have in the past.

    “We’re unlikely to go back to pre-pandemic levels. Vehicles cost way more now,” Frey said regarding used car pricing. “The landscape has changed. [Automakers] are not manufacturing as many as they have because they got the taste of gold — huge profits from not having so many vehicles in manufacturing.

    Yes, and ecobox tiny cars mean tiny profits…greed is good…have fun riding your electric Dennis the Menace Scooter…

  17. Herbie Ficklestein. says:

    Chad says it has nationalized all assets owned by Exxon Mobil
    N’DJAMENA, March 23 (Reuters) – Chad has nationalized all the assets and rights including hydrocarbon permits and exploration and production authorisations that belonged to a subsidiary of Exxon Mobil (XOM.N), the Central African nation’s energy and hydrocarbons ministry said in a statement on Thursday.

    Reporting by Mahamat Ramadane; Writing by Bate Felix; Editing by Cynthia Osterman

    Ohh, that’s not nice…

    • Ed says:

      Good for them. Quick sign a defense pact with SCO.

      • The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is an intergovernmental organization founded in Shanghai on 15 June 2001. The SCO currently comprises eight Member States (China, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan), four Observer States interested in acceding to full membership (Afghanistan, Belarus, Iran, and Mongolia) and six “Dialogue Partners” (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Turkey). In 2021, the decision was made to start the accession process of Iran to the SCO as a full member, and Egypt, Qatar as well as Saudi Arabia became dialogue partners.

  18. Tim Groves says:

    Renate: There are actual REASONS why we believe in plate tectonics and heliocentrism. There are ZERO reasons for believing in ‘virology.’ you name a supposed reason and I’ll shoot it down. Then you shoot me down if you can. THAT’S the Socratic way to the truth.

    I chose these two examples off the top of my head, so to speak, because they are classic examples of what the vast majority of educated people accept nowadays but hardly anybody accepted not too long ago.

    Prior to the Copernican Revolution, which didn’t really replace the Ptolemaic system as the preferred “world system” model in most academic heads until the middle of the17th century, well after a century after Copernicus died in 1501. Galileo got into a lot of trouble when he promoted heliocentrism in the early 1600s.

    Similarly, plate tectonics was not widely accepted when first proposed in 1912 by Alfred Wegener under the name of continental drift, and took half a century to become legit.

    There may be good actual REASONS for believing in in plate tectonics and heliocentrism. But for most people who believe in these models, I would argue that they do so because they’ve been told that both are models that represent reality or that they are theories that have been proven to be correct BY authorities whose expertise they defer to and respect.

    I seriously doubt that you personally have ever travelled out into space far enough from the Earth to gain a clear perspective on how the entire solar system is put together. And I seriously doubt that you personally have checked out with your own eyes whether the solar system model that you believe represents reality. But please, feel free to correct me if I’m wrong.

    Similarly, I seriously doubt that you have gone back in time far enough to check that the continents have actually moved as plate tectonics asserts that they must have moved. More than this, I also seriously doubt that you have journeyed around the present continental coastlines and made geological surveys to check for yourself which bits of coastline in which continents have rocks that match up perfectly with similar rocks on other bits of coastline on other continents.

    My guess is that instead of doing the work yourself, you have relied on other people to do both the donkey work of gathering data and the brainwork of analyzing and theorizing, and that your belief in the models you claim to believe in is actually based on your belief in the credibility of the authorities who claim to have done the work.

    But go ahead, please prove me wrong there. Change my mind.

    Moreover, my guess is that 99.9 percent of people who believe these theories do so for the same reasons you do—blind faith in authorities. And further, 99.9 percent of people who believe in the existence of viruses do so for the precise same reasons.

    And, as to why you don’t believe in viruses but, on the contrary, do believe in their non-existence, my guess is that your beliefs are not based on actual personal knowledge or experience but that they rest firmly on your blind faith in a different group of authorities.

    Your beliefs are essentially of a religious nature, and from where I sit in the land of skepticism, on viruses you are the equivalent of a Protestant calling a Catholic evil. You even have that early Protestant zealotry, the emotional force that led gangs of hooligans during the reformation to smash all the statues they could reach in the churches and cathedrals of Europe. This was, the same force that drove the Iconoclasts in Byzantium a thousand years ago and much more recently the Taliban to destroy images and idols that offended their religious convictions.

    You are orthodox on plate tectonics and heliocentrism, but heretical on virology. That’s what we’ll record in your file. You fancy yourself as a bit of an iconoclast, don’t you? Taking a sledgehammer to the icons of virology. Your excess of passion is a dead giveaway.

    • Genomir says:

      Thanks, Tim, bow i am not scared of earthquakes anymore /s

    • reante says:


      Given your brief “sick and tired” comment a couple pages back, I am wondering if you will be publishing my response to Tim, here, as well as my other long reply to him on the other page.

      FTR, I’m happy to not talk about viral non-existence from the terrain perspective so long as I’m free to talk exosomes and so long as nobody else can talk down the terrain perspective which was what began the argument back there. Otherwise we have an apartheid system.


  19. Dennis L. says:

    Since we are about energy:

    From TM:

    “The big problem with fracking is the “drilling treadmill”. Fracked wells experience rapid falls in production, which can decline by 50% or more during the first year of operation. This means that operators have to keep drilling new wells just to maintain output, let alone increase it. This in turn means that fracking is particularly vulnerable to increases in the cost of capital.”

    Good point, if the cost of capital is zero or negative, fracking makes very good business sense as the cost is placed upon those holding various instruments which essentially lose value from day issued.

    Dennis L.

    • I agree with you. As the cost of oil extraction has risen, debt has increasingly been used to fund drilling. If debt is freely available, and there is essentially no interest to be paid, the payback risk falls to the lender and shareholders. Lenders have become less and less willing to lend to oil drillers, especially as interest rates have risen and as oil prices have not risen, as needed to support higher costs.

      There are other issues as well. For example, the drilling pipe tends to be imported from China. There are many types of interruptions to supplies, including lack of the drilling pipe. Finding appropriate workers can be an issue, as well, in this boom and bust industry.

    • Jef Jelten says:

      Not to mention that few if any are properly shut down and sealed.

      There are over a million and possibily over 3 million abandoned wells in the US alone. many leaking gas and oil still.

  20. It seems like such a “no-brainer” — take one look at those graphs — is that going to keep the oil supply up? (http://oil-price.net/)

  21. Student says:

    (Pubmed + Science Open)

    ”Towards the emergence of a new form of the neurodegenerative Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease: Twenty six cases of CJD declared a few days after a COVID-19 “vaccine” Jab” […]
    …At the same time, we are analyzing the concomitance of cases, which occurred in various European countries, between the first doses of Pfizer or Moderna mRNA vaccine and the SUDDEN AND RAPID ONSET of the first symptoms of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, which usually requires several years before observing its first symptoms.”


    ”A Potential Role of the Spike Protein in Neurodegenerative Diseases: A Narrative Review.[…]
    We review both cellular pathologies and the expression of disease that could become MORE FREQUENT in those who have undergone mRNA vaccination.”


    • More adverse effects keep appearing!

      • Fast Eddy says:

        A number of Honest Rat Juicers have admitted to me that they ‘don’t feel right’ since injecting.

        It probably wasn’t a great idea to inject something into your body in exchange for a donut.. or a lottery ticket.

        But that’s just me… most other people thought it was a fantastic opportunity

  22. something to make OFW’ers think again

    then maybe again

    about where AI is taking us


    • drb753 says:

      Ohhhh, another mainstream comment by Norman. Where is AI taking us, Uncle Normie? Are we there yet? And how is this character different from, say, Ursula van Der Leyden or Macron? Or Biden for that matter. I get it, an AI created guy will not need any diapers, or sniff pre-pubescent girls, but what else is different?

      • i see you follow your mentor drb

        you have a pedo thing like he does?

        oh well, i think we can guess why that may be—as i often observe, constant accusations are always a form of confession—i bet you can swear by numbers as well.
        Scared to use real words?—Probably never have, I’m guessing. Not in the correct context anyway.

        Give up wishful thinking (and attention seeking)

        try reality.—scary at first, but ultimately rewarding….grownups think for themselves. They have no need to follow anyone.

        or is that asking too much?

      • Bobby says:

        things an AI would FEAR …
        ….energy scarcity
        …..being switched off
        ……loss of connection
        …….data corupti@%#####nnnn

        What would Jesus do
        What would a sentient do

        Humans avoid suffering and create…..
        Humans seek pleasure and create…….
        Humans endure suffering and create…..
        Humans deny please and create…..


    • Bobby says:

      Can an AI know God?

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        if there is a God, then It has certainly not allowed any human to “know” It.

        maybe It could, but so far it looks like It doesn’t want to.

        • Actually, I think that God does let humans know that he is continuously creating the Universe through the process of evolution, and through the way many people working together can put together a much bigger piece of the puzzle than those working alone. We can seem the miracle of life around us, as well.

          As far as I can see, God is what provides the energy to keep the Universe continuously expanding, and the process of evolution proceeding. There may very well be life after death, as well, but not physically on this earth. Many people say they have experienced strange near-death experiences. We don’t know for certain, however.

  23. I AM THE MOB says:

    What would solve our mass shooting problem. Legalize prostitution.

    What would solve our debt problems? Seizing private property/assets

    What would solve our labor problems? Opening the border.

    What would solve our crime problems? Micro chipping and social credit (think Uber)

    What would solve our energy problems? long covid.

    What would solve our inflation problems? digital currency.

    #BAULTRA light

    • Perhaps you are right. Partial answers to our problems might be right in front of us. Of course, what would lenders do, if they suddenly own thousands of office real estate businesses that are no longer needed. Other lenders might repossess millions of automobiles that young people need to get to work, but cannot really afford. Can lenders rent these items back to the original owners for a tiny monthly fee, and fix the problem? The lenders won’t make nearly enough money to compensate for the debt lost, however.

      The video starts with a preacher in a church, speaking emotionally about the bad effects of the Antichrist. This is the direction some “Conservative” churches take. Churches are all over in what they preach. Liberal churches tend to preach “Woke” values. Churches tend to take on the characteristics of their local community, regardless of what their scriptures literal interpretation might suggest. In some ways, they reinforce the divisions that naturally occur in our self-organizing economy when the underlying problem is not enough resources (and goods made with these resources) to go around.

      • Dennis L. says:

        My conclusion from your note:

        Office buildings have negative value, taxes, insurance, etc. Often times abandoned buildings will be torn town to uncover the land value.

        Autos will have negative value as they are not useable secondary to fuel costs and they have payment schedules along with proof of insurance requirements(physical loss for insurance company).

        Both are large components of the economy, office buildings likely feed into pension payments to pensioners leading to less consumption.


        Dennis L.

      • that is the ultimate problem—it is a problem caused by somebody else

        when that somebody else is got rid of

        the problem will go away

  24. Jan says:

    In the 147the meeting of the Corona Investigative Commitee led by attorney Dr. V. Fischer around 44:00 min evidence is presented, that Pfizer had obtained vaccine admission by fraud. Security data has been manipulated by an image editing software. Accessable in English language.


    • This is an analysis of the published results of a Western blot analysis, applied to the Pfizer covid vaccine. The results cannot be replicated when they are done by hand, in the way the test is usually performed. This is the basis of the fraud allegation. I did not listen to the whole discussion. There may be more information on why this seems to indicate fraud. (I think we have seen another comment on a similar subject, probably a few weeks ago.)

      • This is the prior discussion, from January 23.

        Jessica Rose explains blot-gate.
        It seems that the real world proteins created by the injection dont match Pfizers intended results. Which may be a good thing as discussed

        Jessica just returned from a conference in Sweden and her comment

        “the dam is cracking”.


        Gail Tverberg says:
        January 28, 2023 at 9:30 am (Edit)
        I haven’t gotten all of the way through this video. Jessica Rose is explaining that the “Western Blot Test,” which is a basic test to see that the vaccines, as produced, are safe (in terms of the right concentrations of the right proteins), are not being done by outsiders. Instead, they are being done within the company by robots. The result seems to show that batches of the vaccine, as produced, are very uniform, and are producing the desired result. However, when humans try to reproduce the results, with actual commercial batches, the results are very different.

        Clearly, Pfizer has a financial interest in how this quality control step comes out. Leaving quality control entirely to the company, when 5.5 million people are to be injected with these products, is not right at all.

        • Dennis L. says:

          Difficult storage conditions could lead to differences in the field as well. Injecting in a tent on a supermarket lot is not a controlled environment.

          Dennis L.

          • Right. Also, holding doses in inventory a very long time, as expiration dates are extended, will degrade the quality of vaccine in one analysis reported.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          The DOD asked them to do this. The DOD is above the law. The DOD IS the law.

  25. Student says:

    (Telecolor TV)

    For those who understand Italian or Spanish, here you can find a very interesting interview to Dr. Loretta Bolgan, PhD pharmaceutical chemistry and technology, researcher, lecturer, consultant.
    She explains according to latest research studies the difference between Spike proteine from the mRNA vax and the one from the virus; other harmful components of mRNA vaccines; vaccine adverse events; transient and permanent damages; prion disease; sudden deaths; heart attacks and strokes; and also some detoxification therapies one can try.


    • Student says:

      sorry, this is only the promo of the interview. I asked for it and it seems that the interview will be available soon on their channel. As soon as I see it I will post the link. Have a nice day.

  26. MG says:

    The concept of heaven is different, when you view it as a part of the flat world vs. as an outer layer of a sphere.

    As an outer part of the finite sphere, it represents an infinite space: the more you escape the sphere the wider is the space.

    With putting the Hell underground, it is the same: the hell of the sphere is less and less space, as you move towards the centre of a sphere.

  27. MG says:

    Japan’s ‘evaporated’ people: Inside an industry that helps people disappear


    The chilling stories behind Japan’s ‘evaporating people’

    “The city of Sanya, as Mauger writes, isn’t located on any map. Technically, it doesn’t even exist. It’s a slum within Tokyo, one whose name has been erased by authorities. What work can be found here is run by the yakuza — the Japanese mafia — or employers looking for cheap, off-the-books labor. The evaporated live in tiny, squalid hotel rooms, often without internet or private toilets. Talking in most hotels is forbidden after 6 p.m.

    Here, Mauger met a man named Norihiro. Now 50, he disappeared himself 10 years ago. He’d been cheating on his wife, but his true disgrace was losing his job as an engineer.”

    • Tim Groves says:

      It used to be you could disappear from provincial Japan if you needed to and surface in Tokyo or Osaka and work under a false ID as a taxi driver. I don’t know if that’s true these days. In the age of “My Number” and stricter rules on proving who you are, identity, it’s a crisis, can’t you see?

      Sanya is a place where the down and out congregate and work as day laborers or cardboard collectors. It’s the sort of place Orwell would have enjoyed reporting on. There is a similar place in Osaka called Kamagasaki. Sanya and Kamagasaki are the only districts in Japan where I have seen official signs on the wall shouting “No Fighting”.

      The Truth About Kamagasaki, Osaka’s Most Dangerous Zone?

      • MG says:

        “If your bicycle is stolen, you steal it back.”

      • That is just a part of the entire district of Nishinari, the whole district is rotten as hell.

        A Korean youtuber actually went to the Airin(pronounced Irene) district and even if you don’t understand Korean you would not be fooled.


        There are some attempts to gentrify the area and the old dude, an old commie who is now past fighting age, just tells the story potential investors want to hear.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        The UK has places like this too — they are referred to as Out Back the Dumpsters

    • Interesting, as well as all of these comments made. Tim Groves lives in Japan, so he provides additional information.

      The economy seems to squeeze some people out. Different countries handle this problem differently. I had read about the Suicide Forest. This relates to a different solution to the problem.

  28. Agamemnon says:

    Police lay down batons

    Is it a million or ions? That’s a real poll.
    They’re not chancing if guillotines are relics.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      ‘King Charles’ was going to be a ‘right Charlie’ (British slang for a gormless idiot) and go swanning into France, in the midst of the widespread social unrest, saying ‘oh yes, come and wave at me, everyone.’ Slogans were sprayed on walls saying, ‘death to the king’. Charles was going to have a state banquet, presumably at some palace, with Macron, and Macron cancelled the whole thing as he feared that it could be his ‘Mary Antoinette’ moment lol. ‘Non!’ Charles is a right clown.

  29. Fast Eddy says:

    A Blast From The Past: When Perth Group Engaged An HIV Researcher About Montagnier’s Most Startling Interview: “I Repeat, We Did Not Purify.”


  30. Fast Eddy says:

    While the goal was to publish something else today, I find this topic to be more pertinent to our future as a society. Earlier today I found this paper published a couple of days ago, as a pre-print.

    This substack will also be less sciency for clarity’s sake.

    The cost of locking down the world starts to show itself, and its long-term consequences will be disastrous. I highly recommend anyone to read the entire paper too.

    Gut microbiome predicts atopic diseases in an infant cohort with reduced bacterial exposure due to social distancing

    Human mucosal surfaces and body cavities harbor diverse communities of commensal microbes that play essential roles in regulation of host metabolic responses, epithelial barrier function, immune education, and immune regulation

    Given that the gut microbiota provides essential, and evolution routed benefits to human development, alterations in microbial transmission through lifestyle factors linked to industrialization and western dietary habits provide a possible mechanism for the rise in chronic, non-communicable diseases in affluent societies.

    There is an “immunological window of opportunity” early in life when the immune system is particularly responsive to environmental exposures (including infections, nutrition, and microbiome) that help establish the thresholds, patterns of reactivity, and functional trajectories that can have long term consequences including altered risk of immune mediated diseases.

    The immune response to commensal microbes is not simply a form of host defense but represents an intimate and sophisticated bidirectional dialogue that ensures a stable microenvironment is maintained with important symbiotic physiological effects on the host. These microbe-host interactions promote appropriate immune responses that effectively defend against infection, with limited collateral damage to host tissue, and without any subsequent aberrant inflammatory or allergic reactions


    • drb753 says:

      Good Lord, this anti-vaxx cohort has been grasping at straws. Give the kids some kefir already, and all will be well. Idiots have never fared well in human history, it’s just that now it is a little worse for them.

  31. Fast Eddy says:

    Xylazine! Most deadly street drug, beware & parents beware for your kids; Deadly street drug, sedative, we are seeing Fentanyl mixed with Xylazine & naloxone does not reverse the effects of Xylazine


    Better than being ROFFED

    • jigisup says:

      Fent has a problem. Tolerance is developed for opioids. Fent is the strongest opioid ever to hit the street. The opioid receptors develop one hell of a tolerance quickly. Yea fent is crazy strong but the fiends tolerance grow proportionally. Fiends not happy. Central nervous depressant has a exponential synergistic effect with opioids. Its not 10 +10 its 10 x10. Tolerance for opioid receptors not a factor for central nervous depressants. Xylazine synergistic effect with fent solved the fiends tolerance issue and was exponentially more strong to boot making it cost effective. If someone without a tolerance gets a hold of the combo they are dead. Narcan cannot save because of the synergistic effect. Abscesses /flesh eating- no solution is perfect. Just part of the gig.

      Most people dont get it. When a human being takes this shit the human is gone. Only the drug is there. Thats all that is there the drug in the shell of a human that is gone. What is there does not mind the flesh eating all that much. Get rid of the drug in the shell for a while and the soul can return sometimes. Mostly not. 10% or so beat it. It kills 9 out of 10 sooner or later.

  32. Fast Eddy says:

    John Fetterman is clearly not himself
    Or is the senator now hanging out with Tiffany Dover, and maybe Damar Hamlin?

    As Kristinn Taylor reported earlier at The Gateway Pundit – No one has seen any video of Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA), 53, speaking or moving since he was admitted to the psych ward at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland on February 15, allegedly for treatment of severe clinical depression. Since then, Fetterman’s staff and wife Gisele have only released a handful of staged photos that show he is alive and at least somewhat cognizant. No one except for his wife and a few of his senior staff members claim to have spoken with Fetterman, but they have not provided proof.



    • Tim Groves says:

      Obviously, they have a new actor to play the character of John Fetterman. And this is more obvious than in the case of Dover or Hamlin because the Fetterman dude has an unusually distinctive, almost cartoonish face and frame, Donald Trump is also very much an original physiologically. Such people stand out in a crowd and are not easily mistaken for others, and that makes it much harder to find and recruit a convincing double to stand in for them.

      But, they have gotten away with this in replacing Joe Biden and almost the entire world can’t or won’t see it, even when it’s shoved in their faces. People who complained when the actor who played Dr. Watson to Jeremy Brett’s Sherlock Holmes was replaced, or were upset when Marty’s absolutely hot girlfriend in Back to the Future was replaced by a less hot lookalike in back to the Future II, won’t bat an eyelid when they see the current occupant of the the White House and are told he is the same Joe Biden who served as Obama’s Veep. Yes, POTUS is an imposter in more ways than one, but you bought that.

      So why not buy the new improved John Fetterman. He has a bald head, a goatee without sideburns or mustache, and he wears a hoodie. What’s not to like? Don’t let the fact that the new guy is a Cro-Magnon and the original is a Neanderthal put you off.

  33. Ed says:

    Can anyone explain the Russian approach to the war in Ukraine? It looks like a poor persons approach. Rather than bomb from fighters and bombers every object of function Russia picks them off one at a time with artillery.

    I expect whole categories to be destroyed airfields, rail lines, roads, electric plants, water plants, sewage plants, fuel storage, fuel refining, fuel pipelines, docks, grain storage, government offices, military offices, the schools of the children of the ruling class, and so on. But instead day after day they pick off individual solders, individual trucks, building with ineffective mortars that miss 3 out of 4 times and that require ten or twenty hits to destroy a big building.

    MacGregor and Ritter are impressed with the kill ratio 10 to 1. I am surprised with how little destructive power Russia can bring to bear.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      Russia slowed down their offensives when they saw that the West/Ukraine was willing to continuously send their soldiers and equipment into the range of Russian artillery.

      it is not how much power Russia “can” bring to bear, it is how little they need to use at this stage of the war where it is now a classic “war of attrition” where the vast 10X attrition is on the Ukie side.

      Russia stated at the very beginning Feb ’22 that one main goal was to demilitarize the Ukraine.

      at this stage of the war, that process is going great for Russia.

      when enough Ukie attrition has happened and probably coinciding with Spring, then we may see a change in strategy where Russia goes on a Spring offensive and we see more of how much power Russia CAN bring to bear.

      it’s gotten a bit boring that this war is so one-sided with the near total Russian superiority.

      Vlad the Great, and Putin the Magnificent.

      • Student says:

        Yes, I have the same impression.
        As the West wants a long engagement, Russia exploit this and makes the enemy consume more raw materials, lives and efforts in general.
        I’m only concerned, as the West is losing the game, I think the West could probably make some dirty actions.
        Unfortunately the West is us.

    • halfvard says:

      Not everyone uses high time preference strategies like “Shock and Awe”.

      Why should the Russians rush? The West is willing to just throw resources at them and they have the patience and long term strategy to weight and grind it out.

    • jigisup says:

      Well first of all.

      Who knows?

      It didnt freeze. They couldnt move armor.

      Slow moving aircraft die in this environment.

      A gravity bomb can have fins that are motor controlled. That gets jacked up fired out of a tube. No gravity bombs no cheap laser guided ordnance. Expensive missiles only for precision. No slow movers no gravity bombs

      The Ukrainians are way tough and competent


      Everyones chilling till the nukes fly.


      Everyones tired of killing and dieing and chilling till these morons declare a cease fire and brother stops killing brother


      Eddys right its all fake

    • Jan says:

      Russia has already reached their war objectives, that is mainly to keep Crimea and control over the Black Sea. China has declared recently to support Russia in a larger war. The next step will be to isolate the economy of the BRICSS from the failing EU economies. To destroy Ukrainian infrastructure would cause huge humanitarian losses and might pull Putin in an unfavorable light.

      • Ed says:

        Modern war is about PR as much as military victory. It confuses me.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          How about you we create a club — we fly around on private jets and drink lots of Champagne .. we own the media and everything else…

          We rule over the circus and farm animals … give them Tee Vee and music and stuff… and tell them they are free… give them enough to eat… vacations etc…

          Then we create stories for them … to make them think we in the VIP club are enemies… and to deflect them from the truth when necessary….

          These stories involve wars – but there are no proper wars… it’s primarily just CGI and crisis actors… blow up a few old buildings… kill a few of them for show — who cares – there are billions of these cockroaches…

          All the circus and farm animals are stooopid — otherwise they’d be in the VIP Club

    • Kris says:

      Manpads make air superiority impossible for the Russians, thus the WW1 trench warfare grind. Also, neither Russia nor NATO have the industrial output or organizational structure for sustained large-scale military operations anymore. The losses of tanks and aircraft on both sides are catastrophic. Maybe I’m wrong, but both sides seem to be slowly collapsing.

      • JesseJames says:

        Kris, you are wrong. Russia has the resources and manufacturing capability.
        Russia does not use their aircraft in vulnerable areas due to Manpads. Instead they perform standoff launches of guides bombs and missiles.
        Tanks of course are vulnerable and lost…it is a constant improvement scenario to keep tanks alive.

      • Ed says:

        Kris, I think you are right about the manpads. Hence the new tech of small drones.

        I want to see a drone that can attach an explosive cutting charge to the barrel of an artillery gun or tank gun and cut it and block it.

        In the ME the US used graders to cover troops in trenches. Trenches seem big in this war, I am waiting for robo bulldozers
        to bury troops in trenches.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      They could end it immediately but they don’t want to cuz it’s fake and it provides a scapegoat for inflation etc….

      If no war then people start to think that we may be running low on cheap energy… and that the inflation is not transitory…

      Notice how it keeps increasing despite higher interest rates?

  34. Mirror on the wall says:

    Women’s sport has its own social history. Historically, the unusual thing would generally have been women’s competitive sport at all. Sport is not a set thing, and there is no ‘truth’ about what it should be – society decides that. What is ‘normal’ changes; ‘normality’ is a flux like everything else in the world.

    Trans do have a physical advantage, but sport is largely about that anyway, and otherwise other advantages, mental, character or social. I doubt that anyone but trans is going to be banned because they have a physical advantage or any other. ‘Fair’ in sports means little more than sticking to the rules, it does not imply an ‘equality’ of vantage.

    Advantage leads to losers, but ‘winners and losers’ is largely the whole point of competitive sports anyway. Most competitors lose in a contest, and no one sees that as a problem. East African runners have a physical advantage, which why they tend to win the races, but other runners cope with their own relative disadvantage and their defeat.

    Losing is the life of most sportsmen, men and women. It is just how competitive sports work. Most people would not stand a chance in professional sports, and they cope with that, they do not expect the elimination of advantages so that they can compete, let alone successfully compete. On the other hand, there are handicapped sports, which I have seen mocked on the web.

    So, I am not saying that trans ‘should’ be allowed to compete in women’s sports, which is for society to decide, rather that the reasoning around their participation is complex. There obviously is no ‘truth’ to the matter, just different perspectives that become dominant as society changes. The ‘norm’ is liable to vary in time and place; some will welcome that and some will not.


    Few women competed in sports in Europe and North America before the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Although women were technically permitted to participate in many sports, relatively few did. Those who did participate often faced disapproval. Early women’s professional sports leagues during the early part of the 20th century foundered.

    Women’s sports in the late 1800s focused on correct posture, facial and bodily beauty, muscles, and health.[24] Prior to 1870, activities for women were recreational rather than sport-specific in nature and emphasized physical activity rather than competition.[25] Sports for women before the 20th century placed more emphasis on fitness rather than the competitive aspects we now associate with organized sports.[26]

    In 1916 the Amateur Athletic Union (AAU) held its first national championship for women (in swimming),[27] In 1923 the AAU also sponsored the First American Track & Field championships for women. Earlier that year the Women’s Amateur Athletic Association (WAAA) held the first WAAA Championships.

    Bicycling became a popular activity among women in the suffragette era. “Bicycling has done more to emancipate women than anything else in the world,” Susan B. Anthony said. “I stand and rejoice every time I see a woman ride on a wheel. It gives women a feeling of freedom and self-reliance.”

  35. Cheese can cause nightmares says:

    Dr. John Campbell, an Englishman aged in his late seventies and retired, has been a friendly face (though not in any official capacity) who was very early onboard with official advice about COVID. Leaning on his long medical experience, he discussed the disease and gave advice on his YouTube channel and gained a large following. Over time he has done his research and become increasingly sceptical and disillusioned about various aspects of the response to COVID.

    He has recently uploaded a video with evidence from the US House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic. Dr. John Campbell is astonished and flabbergasted by what this has revealed. He says in the video, “It’s starting to look like there has been an international conspiracy among some of the world’s most senior scientists. That sounds utterly absurd, but that is how it is starting to look.”

    Yes, the dreaded “C” word. I know that many people automatically switch off when they hear that word, but fortunately not everybody is asleep. So here goes. What does the video reveal?

    The National Institute of Health (USA) was funding gain-of-function research in Wuhan. (Dr. Fauci was intimately involved in this – Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has long since published the evidence). N.I.H. had a monetary relationship with the Wuhan Institute through the Ecohealth Alliance.

    Eleven scientists all agreed that COVID-19 could not have had a natural origin. Yet a few days later they published a paper rubbishing the idea of a lab leak and pushing the theory that the virus came from a Wuhan wet market – that it had a natural origin.

    Why did nobody speak up about this? “Government grants are awarded to people who don’t rock the boat.”

    Gain-of-function: various experiments were carried out in Wuhan where transgenic mice (mice with human genes inserted) were repeatedly infected with the SARS coronavirus to make it infectious to humans – to gain the function of infecting humans. Yes, such experiments have indeed taken place and do take place. Why? You might wonder and want to know. Billions of dollars have been wasted on these highly dangerous activities.

    Conclusion: “Dr. Fauci got caught with his hand in the cookie jar. He got caught supercharging viruses in an insecure Chinese lab.” He and his fellow scientists tried to cover it up but failed.

    • TIm Groves says:

      I’m sure John Campbell is not quite that old yet. Early sixties I believe.

      Interestingly, Wickedpedoia has got an entry on him and it’s a complete hatchet job. These Wikedpedoians really deserve eternal damnation for all the lies and defamation they deal in. If they were all to be guillotined, I would take up knitting just to be in the audience. Look what they wrote about poor JC.

      “John Lorimer Campbell is an English YouTuber and retired nurse educator known for his videos about the COVID-19 pandemic. Initially, the videos received praise, but they later veered into misinformation. He has been criticised for suggesting COVID-19 deaths have been over-counted, repeating false claims about the use of ivermectin as a COVID-19 treatment, and providing misleading commentary about the safety of COVID-19 vaccines. As of January 2023, his YouTube channel had 2.72 million subscribers and over 598 million views.”

      Come the revolution, when society cleanses itself of malign and malignant evildoers by lining them up against the wall, burning them at the stake, or sending them all to Disneyland, I hope the editors of Wikedpedoia are not forgotten or overlooked.

      • halfvard says:

        The Wikipedians are the quintessential example of the kind of doglike humans that love to wield the petty tyranny of managing a bureaucracy. These are the types that all oppressive systems rely on to succeed.

        • Cromagnon says:

          NPCs of the simulacrum. They can be eliminated without any metaphysical consequences.

      • Cheese can cause nightmares says:

        I thought I saw a video last year in which John Campbell mentioned that he was 76. He is indeed retired, though. And it’s hard to judge a person’s age from their looks, especially when they’re bald.

        I was just mentioning the disgraceful propaganda of Wikipedia on our hobbyist forum. It always follows the official US position, and spends the first paragraph dissing anybody who doesn’t follow it. You can ruin people’s careers like that. Definitely a case of neo-McCarthyism. I suggested calling it Witch-huntopedia or Snidopedia. Clearly the West has its “dissidents”, as identified by the US. But the general public in the West is indoctrinated and does not expect or even accept that we get propaganda, apart from in political party campaigns.

        Jimmy Wales supposedly runs Wikipedia and often asks for donations, which I always ignore. I’m sure he is just a front man, and it’s run by the US. It makes me wonder what Snidopedia’s entry about Trump said, when he was president.

        • Ed says:

          Yes Wikipedia is pure propaganda

        • Minority of One says:

          “Jimmy Wales supposedly runs Wikipedia and often asks for donations”

          Yes he does, and I have never donated. If there was a response button, I would click it and ask: why the hell would I donate to a CIA operation? A bit like the Gaurdian asking me to donate whenever I view (rare) one of their articles – why the hell would I donate to an MI5 propaganda outlet?

          • Fast Eddy says:

            The CIA fully funds wikipedia — the public donations just go towards Jimmy’s heavy cocaine habit and his rent boy appetite…

            Don’t enable Jimmy… his mother would prefer it that way

          • Cheese can cause nightmares says:

            Yes, just what would the CIA buy with all those donations?

            Ian Dury & the Blockheads – I Want To Be Straight

      • Minority of One says:

        Whenever I look up someone I have never heard of on Wickedpedia, and Wickedpedia does a hatchet job on them, I know the person is ok, and I find out more about them elsewhere.

  36. @Jef

    In a consequentialist view, it would have been better if Oliver Smith, who commanded the 1st Marine at Chosin, decided to die , charging the Marines in a blaze of glory, rather than running between his tail , leaving all these equipment which were later moved to Vietnam to destroy the French at Dien Bien Phu, and leaving the headache of North Korea to this day.

    The destruction of the 1st Marine would probably have necessitated the use of nuclear weapons against China, possibly the first hydrogen as well. Stalin was not too hot fighting the Americans since USSR had not recovered from WW2 and he would have done nothing much.

    That would have created the greatest demand destruction of history, even bigger than WW2.

    The addition of about 5 billion plus consumers in Asia was the decider of human civilization. If Smith didn’t choose to save himself and the Marines we would not have to worry about shortages now.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      that is why it is so GREAT that we can’t turn back time and change history.


    • jigisup says:

      Ive heard figures from 1 quadrillion to a hundred quadrillion for total derivative creation for all financial institutions.

      They are going to need a bigger boat.

      • houtskool says:

        Upstream inflation
        Breadlines inc.
        Invest now
        Or we we’ll sink

      • Kris says:

        Derivatives mean nothing. Since the GFC several financial institutions (I forget which ones) have blown up, triggering the dreaded ‘derivatives meltdown that would end the world’. Each time, literally nothing happened. The derivative ‘bets’ were cancelled or buried.

        • houtskool says:

          Agreed Kris. Except for one derivative; currency. That one you should add to your watch list. The eternal hunt for the medium of exchange, greed turned digital.

          As i used to say; the bits will byte you.

    • houtskool says:

      Its just a conflict of interest. We will update your banking app within a couple of days, and your biometricals will food you, sorry, feed you, sorry, apply your id for sufficient metrics. I meant food.

  37. Fast Eddy says:

    Like I was saying …there is a method to the madness… this is not an accident

    This MAN emerged from a race against FEMALE swimmers that he won by lengths, now tell me what is wrong with this picture? Why are women SILENT & not in the streets over this?



    • jigisup says:

      Dont see any women to men trans competing in sports.

      IMO their is a connection between trans humanism and trans sexual. Sexuality may be a barrier to machine integration or society accepting trans humanism. What is being prepared is society celebrating trans humanism. It may be more effective implementing trans humanism in children and thats why they are targeting children. Its a logical next step. Decide whether you want to be part machine when you are 6 not just your sex.

      “it- its” are becoming popular pronouns.

      Just guessing.

    • drb753 says:

      It’s all for laughs. Women need a strong character to face what is coming. Losing to a man is good training. I find westerners in general, and anglo in particular, a whiny bunch. Just about everything has a silver lining, this is no exception. Russia uses these things internally with great success. It’s propaganda on the cheap, and it helps keeping money real.

  38. Mirror on the wall says:

    Shaking all over?


    Deutsche Bank’s collapse would be a threat to the whole eurozone

    It could be next month. It might be next week. Or it might well happen over the weekend. But today’s collapse in the share price of Deutsche Bank, and the huge rise in the cost of insuring its debt against default, means it is probably only a matter of time before there’s an intervention. It looks increasingly inevitable that Deutsche will require some form of rescue, led by the German government and the European Central Bank. The trouble is: that will be a threat to the entire eurozone.

    If you have any money in Germany’s largest bank, the only rational move right now is to get it out

    To market insiders, the real surprise of today’s collapse in confidence in Deutsche Bank is that it took so long. On Friday morning, its share price dropped by 15 per cent, while the cost of insuring against a default soared. The charts look eerily similar to Silicon Valley Bank two weekends ago, and to Credit Suisse last weekend. If you have any money in Germany’s largest bank, the only rational move right now is to get it out. Once a run like this starts it is impossible to stop.

    Deutsche has been in trouble for years, much like Credit Suisse, with speculation about its survival swirling through the markets. If any major institution was going to lose the confidence of its investors during this crisis, it was always likely to be at the front of the queue. It remains to be seen what happens next. But the only real way out will be for the German government and the ECB to step in with a guarantee to backstop Deutsche’s losses and to guarantee that depositors will be paid in full. They could decide to nationalise it, or else arrange a quick merger with a rival, most probably Commerzbank, or possibly France’s BNP Paribas.

    Any fallout from a Deutsche bailout would hit the entire eurozone. On Friday, there were already signs of confidence ebbing in the other major banks across the zone. Shares in France’s BNP and Société Générale were down by 6 per cent, Italy’s UniCredit by 4 per cent, and Spain’s Santander by 4 per cent. The core problem for the eurozone has always been that a poorly designed, dysfunctional single currency builds up huge surpluses in some countries and deficits in others, and all that money has to be recycled somehow through the banking system. Deutsche, as Germany’s largest bank and the main commercial lender, is right at the heart of that system. The losses on recycling all that money were always going to end up somewhere, and in the end, they will have to be paid for by German taxpayers.

    A Deutsche collapse could bring the euro down with it. Unless the government and the central bank can shore it up over the weekend, very soon the entire currency will be in deep trouble.

    • I can believe that the collapse of Deutsche Bank would badly affect the whole Eurozone. Also, the causes that brought DB down would likely affect other banks and other businesses, besides banks.

  39. Pingback: Grenzen aan de groei: Keerpunt in “gezonde” economische groei bereikt | Paradoxnl's Blog

  40. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    Yo, Eddie…looks here…
    Astronauts that hibernate on long spaceflights is not just for sci-fi. We could test it in 10 years.
    By Tereza Pultarova published 3 days ago

    “We need to fine tune everything before we can apply it to humans. But I would say that 10 years is a realistic timeline.”

    Despite being a sci-fi trope, putting humans into long-term induced torpor may not be a far-fetched idea after all. Jennifer Ngo-Anh, a research and payload coordinator of Human and Robotic Exploration at ESA and a co-author of a recent paper(opens in new tab) outlining the space agency’s approach to hibernation research, told Space.com that depending on funding availability, the first human torpor trials could take place as early as the mid-2030s.

    “Of course, we need to finetune everything before we can apply it to humans. But I would say that 10 years is a realistic timeline,” Ngo-Anh said.

    This fine-tuning is already underway. First studies have shown that it’s possible to induce torpor(opens in new tab) in otherwise non-hibernating animals, such as rats, and bring them safely back to life a few days later. The process of triggering hibernation is rather intricate and involves reduced exposure to daylight and a period of intense feeding followed by a strict fast.

    “The rats receive a drug, a neurotransmitter substance, and are brought into a dark space with reduced temperature,” Jürgen Bereiter-Hahn, professor emeritus in neuroscience and cell biology at Goethe University in Frankfurt, Germany, and member of ESA’s hibernation research group, told Space.com in an interview. “It works very nicely, but the problem is that you have to apply the signaling molecule repeatedly to maintain the state. You need to maintain very high levels of the neurotransmitter and that could have deleterious effects over the longer term.”

    • You also need to figure out how to keep world economy going to come back to, after hibernating.

    • ivanislav says:

      You need the body to maintain immune function or else it will be eaten by microbes. If you maintain metabolic function, you are still aging, so why is stasis beneficial?

      • TIm Groves says:

        Eaten by microbes….!? That’s a nasty thought indeed.

        But at least we don’t have to worry about being eaten by viruses, as they don’t exist, I have on expert opinion.

        • ivanislav says:

          Oh dear, reante converted another one.

        • reante says:

          Even if they did exist, eating isn’t their MO, so that’s not really a going concern is it Tim? When did you become the new ivan?

    • can’t quite figure out the ‘test it’ part

      a human being has to give up part of his life to test something that might be ”all” of his life.

      i can think of one or two possible candidates who wouldn’t be missed

      but volunteering might be another matter.

      whatever happened to those frozen folks from a few years back?

      • houtskool says:

        The wheelchair occupants would have died long ago if the handicapped didn’t have a vote.

    • What is Ms. Ngo-Anh doing in ESA? Isn’t she more suitable for the Vietnamese space program, if there is one?

    • Who will clean up their shit?

  41. Jef Jelten says:

    WARNING! MAJOR SPECULATION COMING UP HERE. Although not at all unreasonable.

    The only play left for the US is to do what they did at the end of WWII, crank up the belligerents to 11, and drop nukes to re-establish themselves as the dominant force, show the ROW who’s boss, This way at least no matter how things shake out the West/US or more importantly the Owners will be able to continue to demand their cut of all economic activity and possibly continue to tamp down demand/consumption. In fact it might even work out as history’s largest demand destruction event bringing us down to a manageable population. No mater what …it is going to suck big time but what they intend, I believe, is to manage/control the suckyness in order to remain on top. In their mind they have successfully (in their minds) managed the World this far, so no way are they going to stop now. There is a better than even chance that the first nuke they use is on America (Cali? Ohio?) but blamed on someone else…North K ?. I mean in a sense they have been slowly nuking America for decades, more and more each year anyway. This would mollify the domestic rabble, bring down the population a bit, and galvanize the West into attack mode rationalizing any and all of their future belligerents.

    Buckle up Knuckleheads!

    • Cromagnon says:

      Thucydides trap….

    • jigisup says:

      No NO No. Calli is a performing asset. Its those non performing assets over near nordstream that get “down sized”.

    • The US military has been up to so many questionable deeds in the past that it isn’t very had to image.

      I suppose a major motive could be to instill fear. If this is the case, the bomb could go off in a fairly uninhabited area.

      If the military really wants to reduce population, it would need to bomb New York City or Los Angeles. The financial system isn’t doing very well. Bombing New York City could help obscure that problem. San Francisco is another troubled area, but its metro area population is only 4.6 million people, while that of NYC is 19.8 million people.

      • Lastcall says:

        Why not hit Wall St or City of London; the Nine-11 ‘aircraft’ hit the Pentagon area where financial misdeeds were recorded and the same ‘event’ took out building 7 where investigations were also being undertaken.
        One way to balance the lie-dger.
        The spider web of lies needs a big cover-up.

    • jigisup says:

      Jerome moved DB to the sun?

    • According to the article:

      “We will probably start seeing the effects of the high-speed wind on March 24,” Young added. “When the high-speed wind reaches Earth, the particles and the magnetic field it carries will interact with Earth’s magnetic field, effectively rattling it or like ringing a bell.”

      More powerful magnetic fields, like from a coronal mass ejection, could cause electrical blackouts or disrupt communication technology. But coronal holes — even large ones like this — are far less violent. So the main effect to look forward to this Friday is a more vibrant aurora borealis.

      If the poles are already in the process of shifting, I am wondering if this kind of event could push the process along.

      • drb753 says:

        If I wake up, I will take a look and see if I can detect any northern lights. They must necessarily happen if the event is big. But these events have a wide intensity distribution, overwhelming chance this is a nothingburger. As you know I am the northernost OFW commenter.

      • we all move one pace to the left

      • Cromagnon says:

        FYI: 3 times in the past 1000 years the sun has generated flare events 100-1000x greater than the well documented Carrington event of the 1800s.
        The pace of these vast eruptions seem to have increased greatly. There was an event 9000 years ago and then we can document 3 events in past 1000 years. Last one was in the 700s.
        Further the event that kicked off the younger dryas was probably “ cometary debris” slamming into what is today Lake Michigan. The impact was so tremendous that it threw ice boulders in suborbital trajectories across the Midwest creating both the Carolina bays and the Nebraska meltwater lakes. It buried the entire landmass of America from the Rockies to the east coast under a half meter of pulverized Ice.

        A very bad day,….. extinction of many mega faunal species and likely movement of coastal civilizations in North America back into the old world.

    • Deutche Bank going down is a real fear. One concern is exposure to debt in the US office market sector.

      • The online WSJ main page points to live coverage of the Deutsche Bank situation on this page. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-03-24-2023
        It shows several charts that update automatically, including stock prices and options volumes. Its summary of recent market activity includes the following:

        Losses were more pronounced in Europe. Shares of Deutsche Bank fell 12%, leading a broad decline for the region’s banking sector. Commerzbank fell more than 7%, Société Générale and BNP Paribas more than 6% and UBS about 4%.

        Government bond prices rose. That pushed the yield on 10-year Treasurys down to 3.301%, on course for the lowest settle since September, from 3.406% Thursday. Two-year yields fell to 3.595% from 3.808%.

        Traders doubled down on bets that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold at its May meeting. The probability implied by interest-rate futures stood at 99%, compared with 73% Thursday, according to CME Group.

        The dollar strengthened, in another sign investors were seeking haven assets. The WSJ Dollar Index gained 0.5%.

        Oil prices retreated. Most-active futures for Brent crude fell 2.7% to $73.42 a barrel.

        I see WTI is listed at $68.24, so it is back down, as well.

        • jigisup says:

          Only one entity can create loans based on book entry with no oversight. Book entry of last resort. Book entry means monetization of debt with its consequences. Who is big enough to eat DB? Looks like they wont “solve this one” over the weekend. Uncle Jerome rides in with dollar swaps but every one is currency destruction.

          Its your fault Gail. You didnt post your pick up stick picture.


          • This press release starts out,

            The Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank are today announcing a coordinated action to enhance the provision of liquidity via the standing U.S. dollar liquidity swap line arrangements.

            If this doesn’t work, what can be added? It is indeed a pick up sticks problem.

            • moss says:

              Was anything done other than change the frequency of rollover from weekly to daily. Will help the Fed’s safety with respect to currency losses on the collateral but can’t see any other “enhancement” role in the change of arrangements. No increase in Limits?
              Looks like a big nuthinburger

            • With everyone on edge, perhaps weekly to daily makes a difference. Whether or not there are limits is not clear to me. I suppose high amounts of money from nowhere may affect the willingness of the rest of the world (China, Russia, India, etc.) to take the currency of the countries that seem to be debasing their currencies.

            • jigisup says:

              “No increase in Limits?
              Looks like a big nuthinburger”

              Could be we will see. Swaps have no limits for the five banks listed.

              The bank the fed swaps with holds the currency it has promised to “swap” it is not transferred to the fed. In contrast the dollars from the fed are transferred to the foreign bank and used. Payed back at a specified date. The fed never takes possession of its half of the swap. This is why I ridiculed the notion that the five banks were working in concert as equals. The reality is the money is moving in one direction until it is payed back not both directions that a “swap” would imply. Defacto loans from the fed to the other banks not all banks “swapping” with each other. The digital notes created at the fed and delivered by nature of a book entry at the fed of the foreign banks note/promise that the corresponding amount of foreign currency is held in escrow in their possession.

              A bad thing? The 2009 GFC probably would not have ended well without the fed dollar swaps. So there is that. Its risky to the fed because the note is directly on their books. What can not come on to their books is the 30 trillion dollars of treasuries out there because thats the USA buying its own debt with created money.. The banks that hold treasuries must stay in business and if the choice is in between currency swaps and treasuries on the books currency swaps are of course much more preferable.

              100% Aok from a fractional reserve perspective of banking that we have lived with our whole lives. A recipe for disaster from the viewpoint of Austrian economics. If money is created at will then why not have everyone in the world granted a high standard of living?

              Infinite money. Finite world.

              The model is incorrect, in fact the polar opposite of reality.

              Its an issue.

              The deeply flawed model results in grave misconceptions about money and entitlement. These grave misconceptions create very grave conflicts especially in a time of resource depletion. Which is all the time. These grave misconceptions create cognitive dissonance and are a barrier to our moral ethical and spiritual growth as well as the quality known as harmony.




            • moss says:

              thx Jig
              will digest

      • Ravi Uppal says:

        A discussion at the Duran with Tom Luongo . It is a power play between the FED and the Davos crowd . Long but worth it .

        • jigisup says:

          Thats the only plausible optimistic analysis ive heard in a long time.

          Im not used to optimism. Its unfamiliar. Ill have to ponder this. It has implications.

          • jigisup says:

            Im afraid what Mr Luongo does not address is the 30 trillion in debt. Yes higher interest rates work toward sound money. Mr Luongo opinion is Powell is someone working toward non catastrophic outcomes for the USA. Mr luongos opinion is that WEF wishes a collapse of the monetary system to institute a collapse and digital currency. The two paradigms. Unlimited Money by decree totally controlled by authority. Money limited by the real environment controlled by the individuals living in the environment. Mr L opinion is the CS/SNB was a thwarting of a WEF failure mechanism via the tier one bonds

            Mr Luongos opinion is that we can return to a time when interest rates were a method of making sure money matched the economy.- that the printing can end. MR l. talks about bitcoin for the future. His enthusiasm is refreshing.

            Unfortunately there is 30 trillion in debt that has been created. IMO this is what we are seeing. No one wants to hold this debt for different reasons. MR Ls argument is that Powell is returning sound money. What about the 30 trillion. The new ten year plan proposed by Biden brings the debt to 50 trillion. At the 6% interest rate MR L proposes 50 trillion is 3 trillion a year in interest. Who will hold this debt?

            Even if MR ls premise is true the issue is US government spending. The issue is the debt from the spending. From the unlimited currency perspective the debt is of no concern. From the perspective of money representing a real world economy that debt is a great concern. Instituting a sound currency now would mean there were two currencies. The old currency created i n the debt. The new currency that was a representation of a real economy. The real economy can not support the debt created by the current infinite money paradigm.

            No matter what Powell is or does the politicians are the one that create the debt. THe majority of politicians in the USA believe strongly in infinite money. The fed has never refused them that. IMO the actions of the Fed is primarily is to enable the money printing. THe expectation is that the politicians decide what to spend. If Powell doesnt accomodate the USA spending they will find someone who will. THe feds members are nominated by the president approved by senate.

            Apparently the writing of the tier one bonds to zero in CS has implications greater than just avoiding contagion. Mr L presents it as a WEF defeat. They were a special kind of bond. Im afraid i dont understand. MR L explained it but i cant wrap my mind about it. But bonds are gone and the system is still here. Perhaps the 30 trillion of bonds can do the same?

            I dont see how we can transition to a real financial system that is not infinite without congress and the senate insisting that the tail wags the dog. I admire MR luongos understanding it far exceeds mine. Im afraid his conclusions are wishful thinking. I dont see congress and senate voluntarily ending the infinite money paradigm. IMO It is only real economy events that will end the infinite money paradigm and it will be catastrophic failure that may well be manipulated by those wishing to extend the infinite money paradigm.

            Without money we perish. Infinite money means we wont perish so of course its a popular idea. If that idea extends to a high standard of living so much the better. The flip side is fear. We see in France now what happens when people are confronted with the falsehood of infinite money in a finite world. They reject the idea that money can be finite. If it is not provided it is because greedy people are not providing it. No amount of reason will change their mind. Some one stole their book entry and they will pay! The beliefs about infinite money are one and the same regardless of who they are. The peoples beliefs largely match Klauss swabbs. Neither acknowledge the reality of a finite world. Both are quite willing to exert force to back their beliefs. It is not just the branches of governments that would need to acknowledge a finite planet and a lower standard of living the people would need to also to accommodate some measure of sustainability. I see no indicator of that and every indication that fear will be used to manipulate into something completely unnatural. Reducing standard of living is always regarded as theft and force will always be used to stop theft. The epitomy of force is war.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              How about if we just give everyone 10 million USD — solve the financial problems as well as eliminate poverty.

            • Thanks for your thoughts on this. As far as I am concerned, it takes growing energy supply to maintain the economy. Printing money can pull the economy along for a while, but when the economy binds up because energy is too difficult/expensive to extract, printing money gets us nowhere. The plan stops working!

            • reante says:

              Good instincts on display there, jig, for not being familiar with Luongo. He’s a big C conservative who doesn’t want to hear about peak oil, which of course is the structural downfall of his analysis. I tried to wake him up briefly but it was clear it wasn’t happening. I used to think he was a good analyst otherwise but then he bought into the WEF misdirection play and it became his obsession. Obviously he’s not alone in falling for that impossible dystopian fourth industrial revolution. Fourth industrial revolution lol. What was the second one again?

              Haven’t read anything by him in quite a while. No interest. Sounds like he’s now seeing what I’m seeing in a way, just differently. What he sees as an emerging defeat of WEF and move towards ‘sound’ money is also what I’m seeing, as previously detailed – a move towards the conservative republicanist banking which i maintain is best called NS. Luongo’s always had a good nose despite his politics.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            The thing is …

            There Elders run the world… there is no ‘powerplay’

            There is no opposition — the goal is to be in their VIP Club — you get everything you could dream of. Ask Obama… Blair etc…

    • jigisup says:

      They mark some CS assets to zero so it doesnt take SNB down when they make it eat CS. That creates haircuts for the bond and stock holders. Low and behold DB is one of those getting a haircut with #2 clippers.

      Forcing banks to eat sovereign bonds is the real issue. How can that be? Thats the banks purpose for existence.

      Uncle Jerome better get the too big to jail wagons circled with dollar swaps. Can one wagon form a circle?

      EU spends nothing on defense and still cant keep the magic book entrys flowing. France breaks a book entry promise and the people tear out the pages and eat them. They got promised a book entry and that is that.

      Dont mess with the peoples book entrys!

      God knows whats on the French bank books.

      • jigisup says:

        Sanctions severed financial institutions interaction with a primary resource based economy. Societe generale led the pack with the sale of Rosneft. SG is iconic, while not the power holder that the FED is its history makes the FED look like McDonalds.

        Wile E Coyote


      • Ravi Uppal says:

        BNP is bad , Societe General is worse but Credit Agricole is a disaster . It is full of NPA’s ( Non Preforming Assets) all related to the agriculture sector . It is kept alive because if it crashes so does the EU’s CAP ( Common Agriculture policy ) of which France is the biggest beneficiary . Credit Agricole is like the LandensBank in Germany . The equivalent would be the savings and loan banks in USA . Like in the S&L case the lines of control and regulations are blurred between the CB and the local body . This leads to loopholes which politicians exploit to spread the lard and garner votes for re election . France is bankrupt . They have been the leading proponents of a Eurobond backed by all EU (Euro Area only) countries so that their liability can be diluted . Germany has put it’s foot down on this idea because they will be the one’s who will foot the bill in case of a a common Eurobond .

        • jigisup says:

          Do you think the French banks will get unraveled in this one? There just hints of what would happen to the French banks in 2009 crisis with it considered one domino past Italy before the dollar swaps postponed the dominoes tipping. The contagion seems a bit more north this time. Not sure geography is applicable to contagion but it sure seems so in the beginning.

    • Minority of One says:

      Deutsche is way too big to allow it just to sink. The bankers, politicians, will do whatever it takes to keep Deutsche going. Nationalise the bank if they have to.

      • jigisup says:

        Yes they will print. “THey” being the fed. All book entries of last resort lead to the fed. Really nationalization doesnt matter. Societe Generale was nationalized in 1945. They are still a investment bank. Nationalization is just a word. The banks are implicitly nationalized if not allowed to fail with 100% loss to stock, bond, and depositor. Or nationalization can mean haircut for everyone. Bail in. That 32 oz pepsi can mean nationalization. Whatever they say it is. Largely in recent times its code for something that means time to hit the p button and hold it down.

        They Fed wants to be stealthy when it prints trying to lessen dollar destruction. Its BOJ ECB BOC doing dollar swaps too not just the FED. UH huh. Riiiiiiiiight. Its a delicate balance. Too overt in the printing and the dollar gets wrecked. To stealthy and contagion. What we generally see is they try to be slick, blow it, then panic hit the p button and hold it down.

        The problem is all the real buyers have left the table. Mark to market yields a price of zero. Its an issue. Whats left is the p button pushed in the closet. In the end they will just place a rock on the p button and try to implement price controls. Custers last stand.

    • Fast Eddy says:




      Reminds of of that line uttered by Mr Juncker…. about when things get really bad…

      Now we just need Cramer to scream – Buy DB – it’s a bargain!

  42. Rodster says:

    “Energy Transition Advocates Get A Reality Check“


    • One major point:

      “if there were no big fundamental barriers to decarbonization, such as reliability issues or affordability challenges, the transition would be happening everywhere, organically, without the need for such strong government support. This is what happens with successful, beneficial technology.”

      • Rodster says:

        That seems to apply to all the Hopium energy ideas. If it could be done and the benefits outweighed the negatives, it would have been done a long time ago.

        I recently talked to an insurance agent and we got into a discussion about EV’s and even he admitted that we don’t have enough rare earth materials on this planet to replace all the gas powered cars with EV’s.

        • D. Stevens says:

          The poors will have to walk to Dollar General for their corn sugar treats instead of driving. Personal transport by carriage will be something for the wealthy and connected once again. Everyone else will walk. Kulm will be most pleased.

        • Lidia17 says:

          Ask him about this phenomenon: EVs getting ‘totaled’ (marked as a total loss of value) after minor accidents, due to possible hidden battery damage that’s impossible to evaluate.


          • This is a similar story to one we just read a couple of days ago in a different language. If it happens in one part of the world, it likely happens pretty much everywhere. It can be expected to make the life expectancy of the cars shorter and insurance costs higher.

          • jigisup says:

            That could be extremely lucrative for the EV owner. They take the “totalled” check and keep the EV. I wonder what the “totalled” titled evs bring at the dealer auctions. Generally a totalled title means most dealers wont bid because of liability.

            • Dennis L. says:

              With my limited knowledge, I addressed this. It is the heat exchangers, 8 fold valving and heat pumps all connected which is the issue. It would appear to me the leaks are impossible to find and repair.

              Note, I have a EPA license, install my own heat pumps, leaks can be a challenge, twice I removed all the tubing and replaced with new. Doing so in an auto would be impossible without disassembling everything to expose tubing some of which I suspect is part of the structure itself.

              Toyota has disassembled a Tesla, they are extremely impressed with the engineering; it is brilliant but it appears to be a whole and some/many parts are integrated together.

              Dennis L.

            • jigisup says:

              “but it appears to be a whole and some/many parts are integrated together.”

              AHH. I worked in HVAC for a while and built some of my own freezers using flared copper tubing so i get it.
              I was using r12 and r22 back then which will date me pretty bad.

    • JesseJames says:

      My wife and I flew into Brussels airport. We exit the plane on the tarmac and then brand new electric buses come to pick us up. The first bus leave with a full load of passengers. The 2nd bus breaks down, after being loaded up. They could not get it to move! So we all had a big delay while they summoned backup buses.

      Very impressive low carbon woke renewable EV demo!

  43. Student says:

    (Music – ancient instruments and scales)

    Here we have a Greek musician and singer playing an Arabic Oud (which is the forerunner of Lutes and thus then also of the Guitar which arrived later).
    The song is based on a type of scale known in Music under the name of Phrygian scale (also considered as Spanish scale, Gipsy scale, Jewish scale or also Kurdish scale. Therefore an origin which comes from the Mesopotamia area and then spread in the Mediterranean area).
    The Oud is in turn descendant of an old Persian instrument called Barbat (3.500 years ago)

  44. ivanislav says:

    >> In its first assessment, the US government agency said that the findings in the African countries contain a total of 4 trillion barrels of oil and 385 billion cubic feet of natural gas.


    Unfortunately, it was not to be: the 4 trillion barrels of oil, or ~100 years of world consumption, was simply a transcription error by a Russian speaker. The true figure was 4 billion barrels, but the party raged on.

    • The link you show gives the high oil figure, I notice. Do you have a link talking about the transcription error? The figure seems to be for all of Africa, not just North Africa.

      • ivanislav says:

        I can’t find the present USGS report, but the article says the new finds double the known reserves (see link below for old estimates) of those countries, which indicates 4 billion, not 4 trillion. They are talking specifically about Tunisia and Libya, not all of Africa, I believe.

        Interestingly, the old report says there are 3.97 billion barrels of oil and 38.5 trillion cubic feet of gas. The new article says 4 trillion barrels of oil and 385 billion cubic feet. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the new numbers are factors of 10 from the old numbers – I think the new report is either autogenerated garbage, or transcription errors, or something along those lines.


      • ivanislav says:

        PS – no I do not have a link showing a transcription error. It is my inference, on the assumption that we didn’t just find 100 years of oil for the world.

    • Ed says:

      Taking down the second WEF young leader. Excellent!

    • Rodster says:

      As I told Fast many moons ago, eventually people get fed up and lose it. That ultimately leads to violent blowback by the Plebs. The good news is, people are starting to connect the dots that they have been played the last 3 years.

      • Ravi Uppal says:

        Once you have nothing to loose , you loose it . — Gerald Celente .

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Keep in mind there were much bigger numbers on the streets of Hong Kong – and they were far more violent than what we see in France.

        They were trying to kill the cops – and they were smashing up buildings…

        Then one day — the Beast said ENOUGH.

        They passed the security law — this banner was unfurled — and they unsheathed their fangs…

        And the protests stopped – dead.

        And if the they had instead escalated with full on riots – as one of the students told me when I joking asked why they were throwing water balloons at the police and instead didn’t fill them with petrol — if we do that they will shoot us.

        I don’t think many if any are ready to die for the cause… that seems to only happen when they are unable to feed their families… we are not there yet…

        Hopefully we don’t get there and the mass die-off of UEP pre-empt that.


      • jigisup says:

        In a world with infinite resources burning everything down makes sense. In a finite world not so much. In a world approaching resource depletion its really stupid.

        The french have a history for it so I suppose its understandable.

        Burning Paris down. $12.3 trillion.
        Sitting in the ashes with no food and water- priceless.

        Fundamentally the people do not understand that money is imaginary. Money may be the most popular thing ever invented. Its not that it cant be understood that it can go poof its that people refuse to.

        When it goes poof there must be a villain.

        Now take that same protest/riot tendency/ victim paradigm…
        Give em nukes and a delivery system…

        How do you like me now!

    • The WSJ is even starting to report on the issue.

    • Rodster says:

      According to Martin Armstrong, the German people are beginning to target those in the Press. There is a growing segment that sees the Press as working against the people.



      • CNN readership is way down–only 80,000 in the under 54 year old demographic. Its connection to WOKE ideals is a big problem.

        From the first link:

        Qualification, competence, and experience are no longer required for jobs in any company that is WOKE. They are all at the end of the day destined for bankruptcy. In the media, the truth has been sacrificed for fake news to manipulate people’s opinions and steer the country to its doom.

        No wonder attacks against news reporters are up.

        • jigisup says:

          Injection injury has given the kids a pause to consider. Nordstream gives Germany a pause to consider. Attacking reporters is counterproductive. Way stupid. Voicing truth is productive.

          Who would continue to operate a business where the people are prone to burning it down? Not me. Business leaves along with jobs. Whats left? Way stupid. Business owner takes his insurance check and never looks back. Finds a more suitable environment or retires. Mostly the latter.

          Aldis closing now too. Not Aldis!

          • Dennis L. says:

            “Business owner takes his insurance check and never looks back.” Check has zero intrinsic value. Need a real asset with true value and a corresponding liability.

            Dennis L.

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