Running Short of Tailwinds for the Economy

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Tailwinds often make jet planes fly faster than they would regularly fly. In this post, I talk about economic tailwinds that help the economy grow more quickly.

Strangely enough, the economy seems to move from tailwind to tailwind, as new resources are discovered, as population expands, and as central banks figure out new ways to fix the economy. In this post, I will describe some tailwinds affecting the economy. Many of these have recently lost their value or are likely to lose their value in the future. The long-term trend seems to be toward tailwinds becoming available to some parts of the world economy, but there may be major dips and shifts with respect to which segments of the world economy are favored.

[1] The tailwind of very low oil prices

Before 1972, the US economy had the tailwind of a good supply of oil available at very low prices. Goods could be made cheaply with oil products, and new devices, such as automobiles, could be operated very inexpensively. New technology could take hold quickly because resources, including energy resources, were easily available. For these reasons, the economy could grow very quickly, with little use of debt.

Figure 1. Average annual inflation-adjusted oil prices, based upon data of the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy, published by the Energy Institute.

Data from the US Bureau of Economics shows that the US economy experienced an average annual growth rate of 4.8% between 1932 and 1972, which is very high by today’s standards. The same data shows that the US economy’s average annual growth rate was 2.7% for the period 1972 to 2022.

[2] The tailwind of falling interest rates and near zero interest rates

From 1981 to 2020, the world economy had a tailwind of generally falling interest rates.

Figure 2. Chart by the Federal Reserve of St. Louis, showing interest rates related to 3-month and 10-year US Treasuries, with US recessions noted in gray. Chart has been annotated by Gail Tverberg to point out time of generally falling long-term interest rates.

On Figure 2, the top line (in red) shows 10-year interest rates. The lower line (in blue) represents interest rates of 3-month Treasuries.

In the US, many mortgage rates have tended to follow 10-year interest rates. We all know that as mortgage rates fall, homes become more affordable to buyers. As more homes become affordable to buyers, the “demand” for homes goes up. More homes are built, stimulating the economy. Similarly, buying farmland becomes more affordable. Factories become more affordable. There are more people bidding for these goods, so the selling prices tend to rise.

Figure 2 shows that short term rates have also been falling, but in a more irregular way. The fact that these rates have generally been falling has also greatly aided economic growth, since many industrial and financial loans are very short term.

It appears to me that the temporary rise in short-term interest rates between 2004 and 2006 ultimately caused the Great Recession of 2007-2009. See my academic paper, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis. Note the delayed impact of the rate rise. It is far too early to assume that the recent rise in interest rates will have no serious detrimental effects on the economy.

To try to keep the economy operating after the Great Recession, short term interest rates were brought down to close to zero for most of the time between 2008 and early 2022. These low interest rates encouraged investors to pursue new ventures that were very “iffy”– they might produce a positive return, or they might lose money. In fact, government subsidies were added, inviting investors to pursue “opportunities” that were likely to be money losers.

With this long-term tailwind of falling interest rates, capital gains were very easy to obtain. Homes became worth increased amounts, as did farms, seemingly by magic. Shares of stock tended to rise. People began to believe that there was little risk in borrowing money for questionable ventures. New high technology businesses in Silicon Valley blossomed.

In some sense, interest rates that rose in the 1960 to 1981 period (to keep the economy from racing ahead too fast) had stored up momentum that could be used in the 1981 to 2020 period.

We are now past that period of falling interest rates. In fact, we are in a new period of rising interest rates because of depleting resources, and the upward pressure these depleting resources place on inflation rates. Furthermore, a 200-year history of US interest rates shows that the recent near-zero interest rates have been an anomaly. We cannot expect interest rates to go back to the recent low level for any extended period. An interest rate of 5% or more is normal. The economy has benefitted from the temporary gift of falling interest rates, and of near zero rates, but this period is likely past.

[3] The tailwind of rising debt, relative to GDP

The fact that debt is rising, relative to GDP, is closely related to Tailwind [1] and Tailwind [2].

Figure 3. Ratio of the increase in US debt to the increase in US GDP for 5-year periods, based on data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

How much debt does it take to create one dollar of GDP? In theory, both the buyer of a product (such as a vehicle), and the various organizations involved with creating the product and shipping it to the end user, will need debt to move the process along. If the government is adding a subsidy to move the process along, this will add another layer of debt.

Figure 3 shows that prior to 1981, when oil prices were low (Figure 1), it took less than one dollar of debt to facilitate the process of creating one dollar of GDP. Oil companies were sufficiently profitable that they could use their profits to reinvest in new wells as old ones depleted. They did not need to add debt to make the process work. While products such as homes might need debt for the buyers to afford them, many other products did not. In this early period, government subsidies were much more limited than today.

After 1981, the ratio of debt to GDP steadily rose. The rise was particularly steep after 2001, when China was added to the World Trade Organization (Figure 1). As China ramped up its manufacturing, the price of oil tended to rise because more oil was needed for manufacturing and shipping the goods China made. More debt was required to import this higher-priced oil, causing at least part of the increase in the debt to GDP ratio. The dip in the debt to GDP ratio in the 2014-2019 period seems to correspond to the period of lower oil prices shown in Figure 1.

In some sense, it is strange that GDP does not consider the added debt that an economy requires in order to create the goods and services that it produces. Logically, it might make sense for GDP to measure the value of goods and services added, net of the additional debt required to make these goods and services. We can see from Figure 3 that this net approach would only work up until 1981. Since 1981, it has become necessary to add more debt than the amount of additional goods and services produced. If the interest rate is 0%, perhaps this is not a major issue, but if the interest rate rises to 5% or more, a huge amount of interest to be paid. Repaying debt with interest becomes a serious problem unless the borrower is able to find a truly profitable use for the funds.

[4] The tailwind of higher population

If population is growing, there is a need for many new things, including new schools, roads, stores, and homes. This puts pressure on GDP to grow. Figure 4 shows population growth, excluding the impact of migration.

Figure 4. Natural population increase (based on births minus deaths) as a percentage of population based on data from World Population Prospects 2022 published by the United Nations.

In the 1950s and 1960, part of the reason that GDP in the More Developed parts of the world was growing rapidly was because population was growing quickly (Figure 4). This tailwind had mostly disappeared by the mid-1990s. Now, if one of the More Developed parts of the world shows population growth, it tends to be the result of increasing immigrant population.

Figure 5. World population estimates as used in the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy by the Energy Institute. OECD is a slightly different grouping of highly developed countries than UN’s grouping. Thus, non-OECD corresponds to the population of less developed countries.

Total world population (Figure 5) keeps rising, even though birth rates have been falling because people in less developed parts of the world have been living longer. This adds to migration pressure because there are not enough goods and services available for the increased population.

[5] The US tailwind from playing “King of the Mountain”

In March 2022, the US Federal Reserve started raising interest rates. These higher interest rates can be seen as a way to push the US$ higher relative to other currencies, especially relative to currencies of poorer countries, such as Argentina and Turkey. By pushing the dollar higher, oil and other commodities become relatively cheaper to the US, and relatively more expensive to those countries with currencies whose value is low relative to the US$. Also, the higher interest rates make the US a more attractive country for other countries to invest in.

The US move to raise interest rates higher can be viewed as a “King of the Mountain” move. High interest rates can perhaps be withstood by strong economies, but they cannot be withstood by weak economies. For example, many of the poorer countries of the world have loans from the International Monetary Fund. As the US dollar strengthens relative to local currencies, these loans become more difficult to be paid back. The fact that recent interest rates are higher also makes it harder for borrowers to repay debt with interest. Weak businesses and perhaps weak governments around the world will tend to be squeezed out.

One thing that may help the US in trying such a move is that fact that US debt has a kind of moneyness quality that the debt of other countries does not have. This occurs because the US$ is the reserve currency, which in turn is related to the US being the world’s hegemon. The question becomes: How long can the US maintain this lofty position? Other countries are likely to push back and find ways to work around the use of the US$, if it is to their disadvantage.

[6] The tailwind from the “Green Energy Will Save Us” narrative

Figure 6. Figure by Gail Tverberg illustrating an economy that is trying to turn to a different direction, while the standard narrative is that business as usual can continue forever, thanks to the miracles of Green Energy.

The standard narrative about green energy saving the world from its climate change gives great opportunities for governments to subsidize wind turbines and solar panels, battery manufacturing plants, and the building of electric vehicles. These subsidies create more debt, which helps push the economy along.

The educational system is also stimulated by the “Green Energy Will Save Us” story. Educators have new courses to teach and new subjects to write academic papers about. If students are interested in studying these subjects, the US government is willing to provide debt-based funding to the prospective students. This adds another source of debt to stimulate the economy.

Of course, there is the hurdle of paying this debt back, especially if interest rates are at a new higher level. This game would not seem to be able to go on very long unless some green approach actually works. Such an approach needs to work in current devices, be low-cost to manufacture, and be affordable to customers at a price that generates taxable revenue.

[7] Over the very long run, tailwinds do seem to help the Universe grow and become more complex and more energy intense.

Eric Chaisson, in the book Cosmic Evolution: The Rise of Complexity in Nature, writes about the Universe gradually becoming more complex and having greater energy intensity. He shows images such as this one.

Figure 7. Image similar to ones shown in Eric Chaisson’s 2001 book, Cosmic Evolution: The Rise of Complexity in Nature.

We don’t understand why this happens. Evolution seems to happen in every part of the Universe. Many parts of the Universe are short-lived. Each new part of the Universe varies in random ways from its predecessors. Evolution happens through the survival those that are the best adapted to their surroundings. This happens at least partly through the laws of physics. There may be some other force involved as well. Economists talk about the Invisible Hand being helpful. Those who are religious may think of the Hand of God being involved.

We know that the Earth has survived for a very long time, despite being hit by large meteors and despite major changes in climate. In fact, early humans lived through glacial periods. There are times when economies and populations fall back considerably, but somehow the world ecosystem recovers. It may even adapt in a way that allows more opportunity for growth.

Thus, even as the economy seems to be running out of today’s tailwinds, somehow there may be future tailwinds that will push the at least segments of the world economy along in a somewhat different direction. We simply don’t know for certain how things will turn out.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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3,079 Responses to Running Short of Tailwinds for the Economy

  1. ivanislav says:

    Apparently ammonia production is possible without a separate H2 intermediary. This electrolysis method uses lithium. I haven’t looked into the lithium corrosion or fowling of this system, but it might be worth a look. As I’ve said before: if we can produce ammonia from electricity (nuclear or solar), then we can use ammonia-burning engines and maintain food production.

    https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2017/ee/c7ee01126a#!

    • drb753 says:

      So this has 30% the energy density of diesel, and I do not see where you can run a diesel with ammonia. do you need a new fleet of machines?

      • Student says:

        What is the objective of producing and carrying all this ammonia in the future? (below link)

        Is it for a sort of battery for intermitent electricity?

        Thanks

        https://shippingtelegraph.com/shipyard-news/maersk-tankers-and-mitsui-orders-newbuild-ammonia-carriers/

        • ivanislav says:

          Japan based groups are placing the orders and the ammonia ICE is developed by Toyota, also Japanese. These facts could be related. The Toyota announcement is in the last few months.

        • drb753 says:

          1) Ammonia has been considered for 10 storing hydrogen cheaply (liquid form at -33C). Basically at the point of production of hydrogen you also store the hydrogen in ammonia, then ship the ammonia, then crack the ammonia at the point of use. this idea seems to be not as popular today as it was 4 years ago. There are two extra steps involved compared to

          2) create ammonia directly, ship it and burn it. Because of its low energy density you need to mix it either with gasoline, or with hydrogen, which you could in principle obtain at the point of use by cracking some of the ammonia.

          Needless to say I am cautiously optimistic about the future of nuclear but never was a fan of ammonia. The future is large gardens, large root cellars, potatoes and cabbage.

          • hkeithhenson says:

            “be not as popular today”

            I agree. There is energy loss in making hydrogen and more in making ammonia as well as the problems of burning it on the use end. We do understand how to make on an industrial scale an it’s possible that it could be used in fuel cells at higher efficiency than burning it.

            But for transporting and long term storage, hydrocarbons, which we really understand, seem to be better in spite of the high conversion loss.

            The big problem with making hydrogen from renewable electricity is not how much it take (50 MWh/ton) but the cost of the cells. My economic analysis had the capital cost of the cells was more than the cost of power. Now someone my discover a substitute for platinum (or a source like asteroid mining) but baring that, making hydrogen is expensive.

            Which is why I proposed using PV and coal to make hydrogen.

      • ivanislav says:

        It’s a different engine, you would need new machines. From what I saw, ammonia can be burned alone or gasoline can be added. I saw nothing about diesel specifically.

        As for 30% energy density, I don’t think that matters all that much. 3x bigger tank isn’t the end of the world when faced with the alternative of utter collapse.

      • ivanislav says:

        PS – this says the energy density is 1/2 that of gasoline, not 30%, a difference worth noting.

        https://transportgeography.org/contents/chapter4/transportation-and-energy/combustibles-energy-content/

        • drb753 says:

          Yes, gasoline has less energy density than diesel. 1/3 of diesel, 1/2 of gasoline.

          • ivanislav says:

            Almost identical according to that chart, in energy / weight. I thought diesel only gets better efficiency because it’s more stable, allowing combustion at higher pressure from compression, which in turn means more of the energy is captured. Speak up if you disagree, but from a chemical composition standpoint, I think my point stands.

            • hkeithhenson says:

              “from a chemical composition standpoint,”

              I agree.

            • drb753 says:

              I doubt we have a disagreement. I was quoting MJ/liter, and you are quoting MJ/kg. Also various sources vary by 20-30%.

            • drb753 says:

              I am going to add: the ammonia energy association (of which our multinational enemies in Arabia were certainly part) quotes 15.6 MJ/l, but the American Physical Society quotes 12.7. Gasoline, of course, has changed a lot in the last few years, so there is a range, with modern gasoline being lighter. The light components are called light because they have lower mass density.

              Diesel stands at 38MJ/l. The thermodynamic efficiency of a diesel machine may well have diminished, given that now “diesel” contains also kerosene plus heavier components to balance out the mix. That is not as good as good distilled diesel, but heavier components will have higher volumetric energy density which balance out the lower energy density of kerosene, so modern diesel is still around 38.

      • I expect a whole new fleet of machines would be needed. Someone would first have to designed them, and then build them. Then there is a question of how long the change-over would take.

        If we want a reasonably fast changeover (but still slow changeover), current owners of devices that use diesel (semi-trailer trucks, farm equipment, road paving equipment, ditch digging machines, ocean-going ships, etc.) would have to sell their current equipment for whatever its value might be for the metals that can be recycled, and somehow borrow enough money to buy the many new devices that would be needed.

        More realistically, owners of current devices will only want to replace current devices as the current devices wear out, or are made obsolete by better new technology. I expect that this changeover will make all of the devices less efficient. No one will want to do this without a huge government subsidy. Even then, any reasonable person would say, “Why?”

        All changeovers in the past have been toward cost-saving devices. Even then Vaclav Smil says they take several decades. This would be an extremely difficult change to make. It takes fossil fuels to make and transport the new devices. It is difficult to see such a changeover taking place.

        • hkeithhenson says:

          “It is difficult to see such a changeover taking place.”

          It has been going on for a long time. Locomotives and ships last 40 years. Cars 15 or so. If we wind up with nanotechnology, this is likely to change the game.

        • Studen says:

          In my view the argument of ‘climate change’ is not so convicing for people.
          People prefer to say ‘too much CO2 around? Ok let’s oblige the others go on foot, I want my truck, don’t bother me’.
          But as leaders have decided not to open the problem of fossil resources as ‘finite’ and progressively more expensive to produce, they will find any possible way to ‘double down’ the excuse…

          • ivanislav says:

            Student, from past comments, a large fraction of people here (including myself) think climate change is a red herring meant to bring about changes to address fossil fuels depletion, but without panicking the plebes.

            • yup

              the inuit watch their homes sinking into the missing permanfrost

              thinking—this is great—-now we can join in the great climate change hoax, its about time we had a bit of warm weather

            • Student says:

              Yes, Ivanislav, that is fully and stra-fully clear.
              It is understood.
              My point is about what the masses will think about it when it will come the time to change the fleet of machines…..
              ‘’too much CO2 around?
              Ok, let’s rather oblige others to go on foot.
              I want to use my tractor, don’t bother me, I don’ want to change my machinery”.

  2. I AM THE MOB says:

    Americans are ‘doom spending’ — here’s why that’s a problem

    “Doom spending” may be one way to cope with stress as economic fears mount, however, it comes at the expense of your financial well-being.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/29/americans-are-doom-spending-heres-why-thats-a-problem.html

    • ivanislav says:

      It’s called INFLATION … dump your dollars while they still buy something.

    • At April 16, 1975, the forces of North Vietnam showed up at a town called Xuan Loc, about 50 km from Saigon.

      The better connected scored a ticket out of there. But not too many of them were lucky. Instead, they lavished themselves with the most luxuries they could get, knowing all of them would be worthless within a few days.

      The best restaurants at Saigon suddenly got packed. Weddings abounded because there was a rumor that unwed women would be forcibly married to disabled North Vietnamese ex soldiers.

      Subconsciously these people know they are done. So spend the money when they could, before the Hordes.

  3. I AM THE MOB says:

    Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model (Nebel,2023)

    “After 50 years, there is still an ongoing debate about the Limits to Growth (LtG) study. This paper recalibrates the 2005 World3-03 model. The input parameters are changed to better match empirical data on world development. An iterative method is used to compute and optimize different parameter sets. This improved parameter set results in a World3 simulation that shows the same overshoot and collapse mode in the coming decade as the original business as usual scenario of the LtG standard run. The main effect of the recalibration update is to raise the peaks of most variables and move them a few years into the future. The parameters with the largest relative changes are those related to industrial capital lifetime, pollution transmission delay, and urban-industrial land development time.”

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.13442#:~:text=The%20main%20effect%20of%20the,urban%2Dindustrial%20land%20development%20time.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “The main effect of the recalibration update is to raise the peaks of most variables and move them a few years into the future.”

      very nice.

      in a few years, maybe they can move them ahead another few years.

      from my house, I can see 2024 on the horizon.

    • Dennis L. says:

      Maybe, Starship was not in existence then, the solar system has enough to last a few years more.

      Dennis L.

    • ivanislav says:

      I am looking at figure 3 and see that food production nosedives while population drops only slightly. Look at the time period 2025-2050: food production is more than halved, while population declines maybe 10%. Doesn’t make a ton of sense to me.

      • I AM THE MOB says:

        I used to have the WORLD3 simulator on my old computer. You could switch around all the inputs.

        The wild thing was if you doubled the resources, the collapse was only pushed back like 20-30 years. Due to the exploding growth of the current system.

        • ivanislav says:

          They published the python code for the new/refined model. I will take a look eventually, but I don’t have time right now.

      • drb753 says:

        we discussed it a few months back with Gail. The population model is most probably buggy. Of course food and population must go together with a delay of at most one year.

        • ivanislav says:

          Another nail in the reproducibility-crisis coffin of science.

          • drb753 says:

            Well at least the originl LtG gang were honest scientists. It is impossible to do everything right, specially the first time. I will say this: there is a whole lot of grains now fed to chickens and pigs that might delay the inevitable. So you will know the end is near when everyone around you is a vegan.

    • The way I read this, the most important chart is this one.
      https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/cms/asset/436b0e26-9729-4b37-a7e3-ee025d6a67f2/jiec13442-fig-0003-m.jpg

      In it, industrial production hits a peak and starts to decline before 2025. Agriculture does also, just a bit later (2024).

      With those problems, it is hard to see how the economy goes on. The original Limits to Growth study was never intended to model precisely how the collapse took place (according to Dennis Meadows). This revised version can’t either.

  4. MikeJones says:

    Sam Bankman-Fried and Elizabeth Holmes may just be the tip of the corporate fraud iceberg that costs the economy $830 billion annually, study says
    Only one out of every three corporate frauds is ever caught, finance professors write in a new accounting study, but critics claim their definition of fraud is too broad.
    BY IRINA IVANOVA November 30, 2023 7:00 AM EST Fortune
    It’s very difficult to know the pervasiveness of crime, because the only thing you observe is the crimes that are caught,” noted Luigi Zingales, a University of Chicago professor and coauthor of “How pervasive is corporate fraud?” published in the Review of Accounting Studies.
    To nail down how common fraud is, the authors (Zingales, along with Alexander Dyck of the University of Toronto, and Adair Morse of the University of California, Berkeley) looked at corporate clients of accounting firm Arthur Andersen, which collapsed in 2002 after helping Enron perpetrate the biggest accounting scam in history.
    After Arthur Andersen’s demise, clients were forced to find new accounting firms—and the new auditors would have extra incentive to ferret out any wrongdoing. By looking at rates of fraud across all businesses before and after the firm’s collapse, the authors came up with a conservative estimate: About one in 10 large companies engages in fraud every year, they calculate, and that costs shareholders hundreds of billions of dollars.

    The whole system is a fraud…a Ponzi Scheme

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      yes the Ponzi will probably collapse within the next 20 years.

      • MikeJones says:

        Or Tomorrow for some unlucky souls holding the wrong paper

      • Sam says:

        20 years my a$$! The U.S is 32 trillion in debt and the depression is just getting started. It will be 40 trillion in debt by the end of 2024😂. The power of interest is an amazing thing. Did you mean to say that we will make it to the end of 2030?

        • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

          Sam, I don’t like green eggs and ham.

          I wrote “within the next 20 years”.

          comprende? “within”

          US debt will be $50 trillion by the end of this decade.

          probably near or over $100 trillion when IC collapses.

          how old are you again?

          the Collapse in The Core will happen when it happens.

        • hkeithhenson says:

          “the end of 2030?”

          The speed at which technology is developing, who knows what things are going to be like that far in the future.

          • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

            I bet engineers will be more efficient.

            • hkeithhenson says:

              “engineers will be more efficient”

              Couple of months ago there was a lengthy discussion on Slashdot. The consensus was that AI was improving the productivity of engineers by about three times. If that’s true, we should see new products sooner.

              (I can’t vouch for this one way or the other.)

            • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

              wow gamechanger!

              now companies will need 2/3rds less engineers.

            • drb753 says:

              and a little more energy. too bad there is plenty of engineers and not enough energy.

          • Withnail says:

            The speed at which technology is developing,

            Real progress has been at a standstill for decades.

            • Dennis L. says:

              Starship?

              Dennis L.

            • Withnail says:

              We had space rockets that could reach orbit without exploding in the 1950s.

            • hkeithhenson says:

              “Real progress has been at a standstill for decades.”

              What do you class as real progress”

            • real progress would be finding and using a new and original means of moving an object from a to b—ie by using a new energy resource.

              because it doesnt matter how many new gizmos you come up with, if there’s no means of physically moving them, the there can ultimately be no real commercial progress, in terms of wealth increase.

              produce as much ”stuff” as you like–but unless you can move it around, it’s piles of pending garbage.

              yes—we can go to the moon, or fly around the world in an hour.

              but we do that by burning finite resources—it does not increase material wealth for humankind

            • hkeithhenson says:

              “real progress would be finding and using a new and original means of moving an object from a to b”

              Ships and railroad are already remarkable efficient at moving stuff from one place to another. But making things on the spot may displace a lot of shipping.

              Another would be making things lighter. A substation transformer that converted AC to DC, raised the frequency to 60 kHz, transformed the voltage down and made 60 HZ AC would weigh a small fraction of a conventional transformer. But big transformers are a tiny fraction of shipping.

              I watch the rail traffic through Flagstaff sometimes. Most of the shipping is containers, next is alcohol for adding to gasoline, and there are also a lot of trains moving grain to feed 10 million people in LA. The latter two result in lots of empties going back.

            • but Keith

              i said”find a new way”

              we’ve used up all the old ways, that’s set the planet on fire.—and we’re running out of fuel.–you simply recited all the ”more efficient” thing—which leads us to jevons paradox’–all the ways of burning fossil fuels just increased our rate of burning them.

              more efficient—isnt a new way of doing anything—its a way of burning more fuel doing things the old way.

              as ive said before—we stared at fire for a million years–then had the brilliant notion of turning fire into rotary motion.—you may come up with all kinds of ”new” devices, but we still run our existence by converting the naked flame into physical movement—and that’s it.

              if there’s another way—tell me about it,–i want to know as much as anyone else.

              all this ”nanononsense”—gets us nowhere.

              are you prepared to live on nano-food?—or nano travel?—or live in a nano house weareing nano-clothes?

            • Withnail says:

              “Real progress has been at a standstill for decades.”

              What do you class as real progress”

              The car.

              The jet airliner.

              The washing machine.

              Antibiotics.

              The telephone.

              Television.

              Home computers.

            • hkeithhenson says:

              Good list.

              I think you missed smart phones. I hate them, but they have become ubiquitous.

              Retrovirals should go along with antibiotics.

              There are also a few drugs that extend life, with more in the pipeline. I take some of them.

              You missed and don’t believe in AI. If we are going to do anything in space, it will take robots and AI. That will lead to space colonies, though it might come after uploading.

              If there really are aliens at Tabby’s star, you can see where a few thousand more years will take us. Not certain I like it, but we have time to get used to the idea.

            • hkeithhenson says:

              “we’re running out of fuel.”

              So what? There is energy from sunlight that can provide more than what the whole race uses. And you might consider what a tiny fraction of the output of the Sun even hits the Earth.

              It will take engineering effort and investment to leave fossil fuels behind, but I expect it to happen.

              “are you prepared to live on nano-food?—or nano travel?—or live in a nano house weareing nano-clothes?

              All food is nano food, produced by natural nano machines. I have no idea of what you mean by nano travel. But I once wrote a story about a guy who was incensed because he traveled by wire and Hertz Rent-a-Body downloaded him the wrong one.

              One of the things I have written about is nanotech based “house seed” that build diamond houses out of CO2 from the air. Too much of this will set off an ice age.

              You are wearing primitive nano clothes now. The advanced ones you can drop on the floor where the rug takes them apart and they resemble on a hanger.

            • “Nano” is for the most part unnatural* and interacts in unpredictable ways with natural organisms like ourselves.

              They want to nano-ize food, when we already have enough problems digesting the un-natural ultra-pasteurized dairy that is commercially sold. I wanted to make some cheese at home, but I couldn’t find any milk in the store that wasn’t ultra-pasteurized (a couple of years ago, you could find some brands that were normally pasteurized). Luckily I can drive to farms that sell raw milk, but wth? Supermarket food can no longer be defined as food in many cases. It is a food-like substance.

              *Some people have nano-brains, I will admit.

      • Angelo Babli says:

        YES THE PONZI WILL PROBABLY COLLAPSE WITHIN THE NEXT 20 YEARS.
        Way before that, because of the compounded effect of interest rates (2027/2032).

        • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

          DUDE where’s your reading comprehension?

          if something is going to happen “within” the next 20 years, it can’t happen “way before that”.

          anyway…

          sure 2027/2032 is just another guess.

          I’m guessing The Core goes to 2040ish.

          on the way down, the 2030s are going to be brutal.

          guess and guess again.

  5. MikeJones says:

    South Korea’s Population Collapse is set to Deepen
    Nov 30, 2023 at 3:03 AM EST

    South Korea faces a profound demographic shift as its young adult population is anticipated to halve by mid-century, contributing to concerns in the country grappling with the planet’s lowest fertility rate.

    …..The decline in the youthful working-age population also raises concerns about the long-term economic competitiveness of South Korea, Asia’s fourth-largest economy.

    …In 1990, young adults aged 19 to 34 comprised almost a third of the populace. However, by 2020, this demographic had dwindled to 10.21 million, constituting a mere fifth of the total 51 million population. Forecasts from the Statistics Korea report project this figure will drop to 5.21 million by 2050.

    In stark contrast, South Koreans aged 65 and above constituted 17.5 percent of the population last year. This trend indicates that the elderly will outnumber young adults by the decade’s end, according to Statistics Korea.

    And another…Plummeting Birth Rate Spells Trouble for China
    Nov 23, 2023 at 12:25 PM EST

    ….In 2022, the country recorded 9.56 million births, a decrease of 1.06 million from the previous year and a 0.75 percent decline compared to 2021. Roughly two-thirds of China’s various regions was home to a shrinking population, according to the data. Only 11 of 31 regions maintained positive growth.

    The major port city of Shanghai—population 26 million—witnessed a significant drop in its population growth rate, falling by 1.61 percent. Beijing, the capital city, reported a negative growth rate of 0.05 percent.

    Newsweek
    Yes, a trend that will need fixing…right Fast Eddie?

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      one of my 1/1/2023 predictions was depop starting this year.

      I hope I’m correct but accurate pop data probably lags by a year or two at least.

      oh look 1/1/2024 is ONLY 31 days away.

      I’m thinking of a repeat depop prediction starting in 2024.

      it’s gotta happen within the next few decades, hopefully sooner rather than later.

    • Dennis L. says:

      Kids are tired of working for the older, not enough margin in it for them?

      Dennis L.

    • Hubbs says:

      In my limited, but bitter experience with the legal system in KY (trying to sue lawyers for legal malpractice) the court will protect the defendants by abuse of summary judgment which boils down to burying the evidence so that it never sees the light of day, and therefore your case is dismissed because it is now based on pure speculation whether you suffered any material losses. Even when the trial judge in his initial opinion admits the existence of legal malpractice and has to “clarify” his opinion on motion by the Defendant attorneys from ” this court concludes these attorneys were negligent” to “assumes for the purpose of discussion these attorneys were negligent.”

      As I said in my book, it’s like a patient not being able to sue me for medical malpractice after a disasterous total hip replacement after I have cut the sciatic nerve, reemed through the acetabulum, put a wrong sized cup in the acetabulum resulting in intrapelvic protrusio, split the femur trying to drive in an oversized femoral component and leaving him crippled and in agony, because it is “speculative” whether he would have fared better had the operation been competently performed. My attorneys didn’t commit just one error, they committed mutliple errors and bailed by deceiving me into suddenly settling my case at trial.

      In the same way, the overwhelming evidence of Bidens’ CCP corruption, taking of Whitehouse documents, multilevel election fraud, FBI and DOJ coverup with false Crossfire Hurricaine charges against Trump, withholding Hunter’s laptop as evidence prior to the election, etc etc will never see the light of day through a jury trial.

      The same goes for the Vaxx fraud. This lawsuit will go nowhere in so far as there will be no criminal or civil arrests or incarcerations. Maybe some quiet settlement payouts on the sly. There is no rule of law when there is an agenda.

      • Student says:

        On this front an Italian has framed you all in US. (an Italian person whose name ‘fauci’ in Italian is a word which means ‘big jaws of a wild animal’).

        (For those who didn’t understand: I’m just teasing you a little bit)

        https://media.giphy.com/media/OqFpgF7bet1sRoCmpb/giphy.gif

      • David says:

        I haven’t read the above story yet but the UK ‘Covid Enquiry’ is proving to be a laughable charade. It’s designed to embed ‘the narrative’ and keep the truth at a safe distance. In fact, its mission is to persuade people that the UK ‘locked down’ three weeks too late.

        The Chair, Baroness Hallett, sits in the House of Lords of course. She’s a retired judge and before that was a barrister (‘trial attorney’ in USA, I think). She behaves as the barrister for the defence though … gentle and helpful to fraudsters who were part of the conspiracy, extremely hostile to truth-tellers such as Carl Heneghan, Professor of Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford (no less).

        I’ve not seen such a rigged process for years.

  6. Ed says:

    Venezuela versus Guyana and US and Brazil. Straight up resource war.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      US + Canada black goo crude production is a freakin 19+ mbpd.

      the ones who already have the most resources will probably be able to continue to grab more.

      they say that all’s fair in love and war.

      and “life is not fair”.

      straight up it’s the truth.

      • MikeJones says:

        What mine is mine and what is yours is negotiable.
        Henry K ..RIP

        What is my Oil doing under your sand.
        The American People

  7. Rodster says:

    “Welcome To The Truman Show (A Scouting Report)” https://peakprosperity.com/welcome-to-the-truman-show-a-scouting-report/

    Excerpt: Most distressingly, the #1 commodity of them all, oil, is now set to decline for many years into the future, and possibly forever. To say we’re not ready for this is a massive understatement.

    And, if I am right, then we all need to be mentally, financially, emotionally, and spiritually ready for some dark times.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      He is clueless… if the US does not export shale the oil price blasts off as other countries would be energy starved … and BAU collapses

      Same as if KSA did not export

    • ivanislav says:

      Our society is very very well prepared: What’s Nicki Minaj up to? How is your Fantasy Football team doing?

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “Excerpt: Most distressingly, the #1 commodity of them all, oil, is now set to decline for many years into the future, and possibly forever.”

      yes US + Canada can’t stay at 19+ mbpd forever.

      it’s gotta drop to 18 mbpd at some point in this decade.

      but will “we” be ready?

      and what about when it drops to 17 mbpd?

      yikes.

      we’re doomed.

  8. Rodster says:

    “Simon Michaux: The Green Energy Myth”

    https://peakprosperity.com/simon-michaux-the-green-energy-myth/

    • I only watched a little bit of this 2 hour and 45 minute video of Chris Martenson interviewing Simon Michaux. From what little I say, Chris does a very good job with this–adding images, and framing the issue.

      One of the things highlighted at the beginning of the video is that fact that a 28 day battery buffer is needed to make the green energy plan work. It would take hundreds or thousands of years to mine many of the minerals needed to produce all of the batteries needed to make the system work. Chris Martenson shows this image on his writeup of the talk, detailing how many years it would take to produce the necessary minerals, at the current rate.

      https://peakprosperity.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Simon-Michaux-Years-to-produce-one-generation-copper.jpg

      • postkey says:

        “Ugo BardiMay 17, 2023 at 7:09 PM
        It is well known. For this reason, we’ll go local, so we’ll need less copper. And we’ll use aluminum, which is very abundant.”?
        https://www.senecaeffect.com/2023/05/renewables-are-not-cleaner-caterpillar.html

        • This link includes correspondence between Dennis Meadows and Ugo Bardi.

          Ugo,

          I read with interest you review of the Michaux/Ahmed debate. Normally I greatly benefit from your writing. But in this case it seemed to me that your text totally avoided addressing the central point – replacing fossil fuels as an energy source with renewables will require enormous amounts of metals and other resources which we have no reasonable basis for assuming will be available. It is not true that peak oil was presented principally as a prediction. Rather critics of Hubert’s original analysis misrepresented it as an effort to predict in order to ridicule it – just as Bailey did for the Limits to Growth natural resource data from World3. I was struck that your critique of Michaux did not contain a single piece of empirical data – the strong point of his research. Rather you engaged in what I term “proof by assertion.”

          I am personally convinced that there is absolutely no possibility for renewables to be expanded sufficiently that they will support current levels of material consumption. I attach the text of a memo I recently wrote to other members of the Belcher group stating this belief (*).

          Best regards Dennis Meadows

          Ugo bases his assertion on EROEI calculations. These are not right for renewables, in my opinion. The calculations do not include enough of the system. They give misleadingly favorable indications.

          • hkeithhenson says:

            “there is absolutely no possibility for renewables to be expanded sufficiently”

            As a historical example, the invention of the Hall process to make aluminum which substituted for copper.

            I tend to agree that if we stick to current technology the future is going to be difficult. But there is little reason to expect that.

            • I agree that it is ridiculous to assume that batteries can be used to mitigate intermittency. Storing the excess energy as a liquid would seem to work better, for example. But it is probably not possible to use that liquid directly in vehicles, and the changeover would be terribly slow and require lots of fossil fuels. At best, you can mitigate the intermittency of electricity by burning a liquid during the period of intermittency. In this role, it doesn’t matter if the liquid is not terribly dense–there is no need to haul it all over. Maybe something along this line will work.

            • hkeithhenson says:

              “that batteries can be used to mitigate intermittency.”

              Batteries seem to work filling in the end of the day when solar falls off. Cuts the load on natural gas turbines quite a bit.

              “excess energy as a liquid”

              If they make methanol, it’s been used as a car fuel. It’s half as dense as gasoline so it takes a bigger tank, but is high octane so the engine efficiency can be higher.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Did you know that Ugo Bardi is slang in Italian for mentally ill?

  9. This is a chart labeled “Unrealized Gains (Losses) on Investment Securities,” showing data from 2008 to 2023.

    https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/USDbanksBONDlosses23-1024×672.jpg

    At the bottom of the chart, it says “Source: FDIC”

    This was emailed to me by commenter Moss. He calls it “Bank Portfolio Losses.”

    It does look like 2023 is much worse than prior years shown.

    • moss says:

      The image was from a blogspot discussing the adequacy of the FIDC insurance guarantee fund

      Notably, the report only casually mentions the ongoing threat of massive bank unrealized losses due to the bond market collapse. During the pandemic, banks had a massive inflow of new deposits arising from the various stimulus programs, so they did the easiest thing with the money which was buy long-term bonds. Since interest rates have exploded higher, those bond portfolio values have collapsed, leaving a ticking time bomb on bank balance sheets, as you can see below:

      FDIC Quarterly Report, June 2023 fdic.gov/analysis/quarterly-banking-profile/qbp/2023jun/

      • Hubbs says:

        Hold the bonds until maturity, so as never having to confront the losses on 0.5% coupon bonds now having lost 40-50% of their value. Reserves? We banks don’t need no stinking reserves. BAU baby. It’s all funny money anyway, especially after 1971.

        • moss says:

          As I understand it, the problem with SVB developed from a run of withdrawals from the uninsured megadepositors. This in turn required the bank to sell bonds until its realized losses became a major solvency issue while large deposit withdrawals continued accelerating. It was at this point the bank was closed down. Not a problem if the FIDC can meet the shortfall, but consider size of the above losses on the chart compared to the FDIC guarantee pool of USD117b of assets.

          • FDIC guarantee pool has always been tiny compared to any likely large scale problem for banks. It is based on the assumption the bankruptcies will be infrequent and small. It will need to be funded by current government borrowing.

    • This seems to be Chart 7, from this FDIC page. It is available for download.

      https://www.fdic.gov/analysis/quarterly-banking-profile/qbp/2023sep/

      This is a related article at ShiffGold.

      https://schiffgold.com/key-gold-news/unrealized-losses-at-us-banks-exploded-in-q3/

      It posts the same chart and says:

      Unrealized losses on securities held by US banks exploded by 22% in the third quarter.

      Of course, unrealized losses don’t really matter — until they do. . .

      The problem is that these unrealized losses drastically decrease a bank’s liquidity. If it has to sell bonds in order to raise capital, the bank will experience significant losses. This is exactly what took down Silicon Valley Bank last March.

      He later says:

      The Federal Reserve set up a bailout program to allow banks to deal with this problem. Instead of selling bonds at a loss, cash-strapped banks can go to the Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) and borrow against them “at par” (face value). This allows banks to use these undervalued assets to raise cash (at least temporarily) without realizing big losses on their balance sheets.

      As unrealized losses rise, banks continue to tap into this bailout program more than nine months after the crisis kicked off. Total outstanding loans in the BTFP program jumped by just over $5 billion in November alone.

      In effect, the Fed managed to paper over the financial crisis with this bailout program. It basically slapped a bandaid on it. But it has not addressed the underlying issue – the impact of rising interest rates on an economy and financial system addicted to easy money.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      hahaha this is massive!

  10. This is where we are going back

    Victorian poverty (actually a reality show with 4 families trying to live it like them)
    https://youtu.be/uwlK0nF0L94?si=uvayrncVWmGDPoU_

    Workhouse

    https://youtu.be/1MX_fSw8etY?si=vPozxzcEYbRZyo3e

    Early 1910s slumhouse

    https://youtu.be/t378QV2RJyc?si=bEPnXgB_NXQiQP6i

    That was the life about 70% of the people in UK lived before 1914

    That’s why people like the late Dr. Robert Firth and the chavs who still say the British did a great thing killing off the best of Western Civilization just because they could live better

    After the Czar got killed all the elites in Europe got scared and they gave concessions to people who lived like above

    Again, if most humanity lived like that , we will be in Type I Civ.

  11. Mirror on the wall says:

    This guy is new to me.

    “Lawrence B. Wilkerson (born June 15, 1945) is a retired United States Army Colonel and former chief of staff to United States Secretary of State Colin Powell. Since the end of his military career, Wilkerson has criticized many aspects of the Iraq War, including his own preparation of Powell’s presentation to the United Nations Security Council, as well as other aspects of American policy in the Middle East. He is a lifelong Republican and firmly on the political right.[1]”

    > Empire in Decline – Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson, Alexander Mercouris and Glenn Diesen

    • Just mentioned below.

      Like John Perkins , who supposedly wrote the memoirs of economic hit man, if Wilkerson has any guilt he would just shut the f up.

      I don’t like those who say they repented. Which is why I quit going to church. I don’t repent since I don’t regret how I have lived.

      • Cromagnon says:

        Perfectly said…..

        Repenting is for damned sinners

        Hypocrites should not be allowed in whatever comes after.

        • Tim Groves says:

          There is a philosophy, which appeals to a certain character type, that we never feel or express sincere regret or remorse about one’s wrongdoing or sin, because we can’t let a guilty conscience diminish one’s joie de vivre or blot one’s self image, can we?

          And then there is a very different philosophy, which appeals to a very different character type, that if we want to have any hope of getting to Heaven, or being at peace with ourselves, or achieving enlightenment, then repenting for our past sins is essential.

          I’ve heard that the proud and the vain can’t get into Heaven because these character traits swell the head so much that it can’t pass through St. Peter’s Gate, or that the ego is a heavy chain like the one forged and worn by the Ghost of Jacob Marley, and that repentance, sincere and continuous, for all the big sins, is the only way to liberate oneself from said chain.

          And I’ve also heard that nothing really matters anyway, do what though wilt, life’s all a big joke, or is a dream a long time ended. I’ve head all that, heard a lot of stuff, take your pick, make your own bed and lie in it.

          I tend to nod in agreement with people like Dostoyevsky and Vonnegut and Joko Beck. But that’s just me. Some prefer Tolstoy or Gandhi or Voltaire or Nietzsche or Rammed-Ass, or Jordan Peterson or even Ben Shapiro. It takes all sorts. Peace out!

          • Retired Librarian says:

            Lol! Lol! I haven’t heard that in some time. My husband, long ago hippy turned regular old guy, used to call Ram Dass “Rammed Ass.” I hear Ram’s brother originated this.
            I rarely read Kulm, but sometimes run into him if I am zipping too fast. I sincerely hope he meet’s up some day with the Ghost of Jacob Marley.

          • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

            “Listen: We are here on Earth to fart around. Don’t let anybody tell you any different!” – Kurt Vonnegut

          • Cromagnon says:

            “Make your own bed and lie in it”……..

            Most humans would benefit from a lot more introspection.
            I personally view existence as a type of prison/school/gladiator arena complex that is being made manifest from a higher dimensional plane by beings unknown to us.

            While anyone who says they have no regrets or that they have made no mistakes in life are simply liars or narcissistic psychopaths/sociopaths,……it remains that for the rest it should be morally easy to move through life….if only we would use introspection more.

            Unfortunately the majority do not and live lives of hedonistic escapism or frustrated angst……and for some bovine like resignation.

            Use your time here wisely, enjoy what you can of the construct within the parameters of what you have…..it is probably just as much as anyone else in the greater scheme of things.

            Our lives are short here and while many may be returning for another trial, some may not.

            The Gnostics knew

            • Dennis L. says:

              Your ideas are turning up more and more, the world is changing, atheists are on the defensive.

              Dennis L.

    • Zemi says:

      You can see that Alexander clearly lives in Russia. You can tell this from the shabby green wallpaper and outdated decor that looks like it’s straight out of the 1950s. Gives you an insight into what life is like for a Russian.

  12. This is the expected oil production cut, plus an invitation for Brazil to OPEC+

    https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/opec-agrees-to-significant-oil-production-cut-c8c6c131

    OPEC+ Agrees to Significant Oil-Production Cut
    Production will be cut by an additional million barrels a day, a move likely to keep prices elevated

    OPEC+ agreed to a significant production cut of an additional million barrels a day, delegates said, in a move that will likely keep prices elevated amid the continuing conflict in the Middle East.

    As part of the deal reached Thursday, Saudi Arabia also agreed to extend its cut of 1 million barrels a day that it announced in June.

    Taken together, the moves are expected to stabilize prices at a moment when geopolitical tensions are high around the world and economic growth is slowing.

    Regarding Brazil, it says:

    Despite the strains, the cartel and its allies agreed Thursday to bring in Brazil, South America’s largest oil producer, as a new member of OPEC+, the delegates said. Brazil, whose output has been growing steadily in recent years, pumped 2.318 million barrels a day in the third quarter.

    Brazil hasn’t yet made a decision on whether to accept the invitation, according to a government spokesman.

    Brazil is gradually moving its production up above its consumption. It is a little tricky to figure out what to compare to what because it has ethanol from sugar cane that gets reported as part of liquids. By my calculation, Brazil was a net exporter of about 660,000 barrels of oil in 2022, and the amount is likely higher in 2023–maybe 200,000 barrels per day more in 2023.

    • raviuppal4 says:

      They might as well ask Indonesia to rejoin OPEC . Brazil is a nett importer of petro products . It is nothing but a power play . I have already posted the problems with the Lula oil field and ofcourse the ethanol problem that Gail has mentioned . An effort to maintain a narrative . Brazil will not join , guarenteed ,

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        right now is probably the US + Canada peak.

        19+ mbpd but I keep repeating myself.

        though it could go higher in 2024.

        Canada is intending to add another half million bpd.

        can the 19+ get to 20 mbpd? we’ll see shortly.

    • moss says:

      Not too sure about those wsj figures. The official OPEC press release gives 2.2m bpd additional cuts
      opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7267.htm

    • There is a Zerohedge article out about the oil production cut, such as it is.

      https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/why-oil-tumbling-despite-another-opec-production-cut-wall-street-reacts

      Why Oil Is Tumbling Despite Another OPEC+ Production Cut: Wall Street Reacts

      The cuts seem to be voluntary. No one knows what to think.

      Prices are coming off the lows a little……as the various nations have begun to announce their voluntary cuts:

      Saudi Extends Voluntary Oil Cut of 1m B/D to End 1Q24: SPA

      Russia Oil-Export Cuts increased by 200k B/D in 1Q 2024 to Reach 500k B/D

      Kuwait Said to Make Additional 135k B/D OPEC+ Oil Output Cut

      Algeria to Make Additional 51k B/D OPEC+ Output Cut

      Oman to Make Additional 42k B/D Oil Output Cut in 1Q

      Kazakhstan to cut oil output by additional 82k B/D in 1Q

      UAE to Make Additional 160k B/D OPEC+ Output Cut

      Angola has rejected its quota.

      So far, this doesn’t add up to much. And no one knows whether Russia (and others) will go by what they say that they voluntarily will do.

    • Angelo Babli says:

      IT IS A LITTLE TRICKY TO FIGURE OUT WHAT TO COMPARE TO WHAT
      It is likely cheaper for Brazil to borrow from OPEC than from FMI or the World Bank. Also, Brazil might be able to pay with exports, which doesn’t need to be profitable, meaning no loans and no interest rates.

      • I didn’t know that OPEC made loans. Does it?

        • Angelo Babli says:

          I DIDN’T KNOW THAT OPEC MADE LOANS. DOES IT?
          Since 1976.

          Here’s how your business, OFW NGO, OFW LLC, can apply for a loan.

          https://opecfund.org/what-we-offer/private-sector-trade-finance/applying-for-funding

          • Thanks! Help pump up the economy.

            • Angelo Babli says:

              My pleasure.

              By the way, Lula will not go with the oil in Brazil being priced in any foreign currency. He will price the oil in reais, Brazilian money. Example: If the barrel of oil is selling for 80 dollars, but it only costs Brazil 40 dollars to produce, Lula will sell it for 40 dollars and not 80 dollars to Brazilians. Bankers and private investors do not like that.

            • Angelo Babli says:

              Population Density Stress: Sika Deer population of James Island, Maryland, USA.

              A six-year population study on sika deer, introduced in 1916 on James Island in Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, provided unique results because of the unusual completeness of the data due to an islandic situation.

              A density of one deer per acre was reached in 1955. In 1958, 60 percent of the population, mainly young females, died during January and February. Gross and microscopic studies were made on 18 deer, shot and autopsied in 1955, 1957–60, plus one recently dead at the time of the die-off.

              Adrenal weight increased, especially in the young, from 1955 to 1958, dropping 50 percent following the die-off. Inhibition of growth observed before and during the die-off vanished afterward. Changes in the adrenalzona glomerulosa and medulla suggested overstimulation and a severe imbalance of fluid-electrolyte metabolism as the cause of the die-off.

              These changes may have been secondary to prolonged hyper-stimulation of the cortex due to excessive population density and its resultant social pressures. Inclusion hepatitis and glomerulonephritis are described, which involved all deer, especially after 1958, but not in 1955.

              These diseases, malnutrition, and poisoning were ruled out as causal factors in the die-off. The deer were in good nutritional status throughout.

              It was concluded that physiological derangements resulting from high population density produced the observed effects. In 1977, subsequent research into human stress showed how population pressure released a similar suite of hormones. (Reg Morison, Perspective on Life).

            • Angelo Babli says:

              Moss: NO ONE KNOWS THE FUTURE
              But they do know how to spread misinformation.

              Student: IN MY VIEW……AT LEAST IN EUROPE………THERE IS NO ROOM FOR OTHER DEAD BODIES…
              Now, is this statement by Student true? NO.

              First, Student, views don’t mean Jack s’hit. What matters is the data.

              Here, on the internet, we have the most powerful research tool for data in the world called Google. Try it before saying nonsense.

              There are 44 countries in Europe. The largest country is Russia, followed by Ukraine and France. The smallest country is Vatican City. In September 2023, excess mortality in the EU decreased slightly to 3.2% above the baseline compared to 3.7% in August 2023, slide below.
              https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/recovery-dashboard/

              If you want to check by country, check the link below, then research why that specific nation is up or down and their COVID-19 outbreak in each country.
              https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/demo_mexrt/default/table?lang=en

              At the link below, scroll down to “Full article,” then check the four links. Your answers are there.
              https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Excess_mortality_-_statistics

              “I do not think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.” ― Abraham Lincoln, the 16th president of the United States.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              welcome to angelo’s clown world

            • Angelo Babli says:

              Opinions are great time savers; you can belive them without facts.

              Business formed under Trump first two years: 6.7 million new business.
              Business formed under Biden first two years: 10.5 million new business.

              Biden created 36% more business in the US than Trump.

              US commercial bankruptcies:
              Trump’s first two years: 1,038
              Biden’s first two years: 893

              Trump lost 14% more business than Biden.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Trillions of stimulus + 0 interest rates create a nice party scene… how’s that working out now?

              Not that Biden or Trump have anything to say about any of this…

              Quiz: Which presidents young daughter wrote in her diary that she was creeped out cuz her father showered with her?

            • Angelo Babli says:

              IT SAVES FUEL OF ALL KINDS.
              Exactly. Oil prices rising have a negative psychological effect on the population. And triggers price gouging. 2022 inflation was a harsh lesson; can’t let it repeat.

            • we can always rely on eddy to tell us about his own obsessions

    • I like this comment:

      “Like rabbits, we proliferate and consume more per rabbit until the resources have been consumed. Then we wonder why scarcities arise. But AI, blah-blah-blah. AI can’t restore depleted soil or reverse droughts.”

      • houtskool says:

        Dear Gail, with AI influence on NFT, we all have the ability to make Mona Lisa smile.

        Please understand that.

        We could even make her fuck Rembrand and sew him for not using more black in his efforts.

  13. Rodster says:

    “Ford Offers Updated 2023 Guidance, Will Slash $12 Billion In EV Investments As Result Of UAW Contract”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ford-offers-updated-2023-guidance-will-slash-12-billion-ev-investments-result-uaw-contract

    There are several ways to look at this announcement:

    1) Having to offset higher employee benefits and wages will need to be passed onto the consumer.

    2) The average consumer can’t afford most new vehicles today because they have been price out of the market. Relying on them to buy an EV is fool’s gold.

    3) The EV market needs huge subsidies from the government and higher cost won’t offset the subsidies.

    4) They are using the new UAW contract as an excuse to bail out of the EV market because it’s a fragile business model, again because the average consumer is tapped out and priced out of the market.

    5) All of the above.

    • Any excuse is a good excuse. The US cannot obtain the resources need to add charging stations to go with all of the EVs and the extra electricity needed to allow the charging grid to operate.

  14. Fast Eddy says:

    Oh gawd… check what the Rat Juice does to the hearts of many … I just spit out some vomit …

    Figure 22.21. Fibrinous pericarditis with a shaggy green layer of fibrin on the epicardial surface. This decedent was being treated with chronic corticosteroids following bilateral adrenalectomies for removal of pheochromocytomas performed one year prior. She died in her bed without complaint prior to death. The epicardial surface is covered by a yellow–green shaggy exudate and the pericardial fluid is murky yellow. Histologic evaluation reveals fibrin and acute inflammation with polymorphonuclear leukocytes and vascular congestion.

    https://geoffpain.substack.com/p/pericarditis-deaths-after-covid19

  15. Americans are insanely wealthy

    https://greyenlightenment.com/2023/11/12/americans-are-insanely-wealthy/

    ?median net worth jumped to $192,900

    ?the average American household’s net worth is over $1 million.

    ====

    Civilization is winner take all.

    The top crust takes everything, the rest nothing.

    Thanks to some morons doing stupid things (although the late Dr. Firth said they ‘did their duty’), the wealth was disbursed to peoples who had no business enjoying it.

    I have said numerous times that it would have been much better for the top 1% to ride space vehicles every day for work.

    Thomas Hitchcock, the real model for Tom Buchanan in the Great Gatsby, lived in his Connecticut mansion and flew his plane to his New York office to commute every day. He got famous because he was basically the only person doing that back then. If Chucky and other morons ‘didn’t do their ‘duty” that would be the lifestyle of the upper crest all around the world, with the poor enduring the noises the commuting planes make every day.

    Concorde flights from London to Singapore were stopped because people in India and Malaysia protested. If colonialism continued the peoples in the flight path would have been removed and Concordes would continue to fly to this day.

    Today’s winners are belately realizing that perhaps it was NOT a good idea for the poor to share the wealth and comfort, and it was much better to keep them poor, destitute and always looking for work, with no leisure time, till they drop dead from exhaustion and quickly replaced by another among many like them.

    • Mike says:

      You sound like a moron.

      • Source? My philosophy is what the people before 1914 used to have.

        • Cromagnon says:

          You do realize that “civilization” has been tried repeatedly and has failed every single time right?

          Just making sure you realize that it has NEVER worked.

          I suspect that this reality construct is designed to teach us something about that……..or is designed so the Archons can laugh at us all…..

    • This is the article that the post was written about:

      https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/19/fed-survey-of-consumer-finances-net-worth-surged-in-pandemic-era.html

      It says:
      “Families in the bottom 25% by wealth had a median net worth of $3,500 in 2022. The top 10% had $3.8 million.”

      “If the Fed did another survey today, I suspect they’d find net worth is lower, particularly for folks in the lowest income groups, in part because their debt loads are now higher,” Zandi said. “They have been borrowing quite aggressively since the government support wore off.”

    • Jeffrey R Snyder says:

      kulm, are you a billionaire complaining about the fact that the masses are cluttering up the landscape, getting in your way and depriving you of an otherwise beautiful life, or are you a plebe with stockholm syndrome and billionaire hero worship?

      Just wondering, because I don’t know what this beautiful civilization you keep harping on as worth advancing (to what goal? – flying to the office each day??) is.

  16. MikeJones says:

    Looks as if Our Gailis correct again

    How retiring Baby Boomers risk plunging Britain into crisis
    Offsetting the cost of retiring Boomers and a declining birth rate will require herculean economic growth
    Matt Oliver 27 November 2023 • 6:00am
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/11/27/britain-ageing-population-demographic-crisis-economy/

    With Baby Boomers retiring, the global workforce will lose its largest contingent at a time when too few children are being born to replace them.
    It means our population is on course to grey at an “unprecedented degree”, taking the share of people aged 65 and above to about one quarter by 2040, according to a new report by the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS).
    That is up from just 5pc in 1908, when the state pension was introduced, and 19pc today.
    ….Avoiding a calamity will require a herculean effort on many fronts, says Karl Williams, deputy research director at the CPS.
    To offset the impact of the ageing population, the UK economy would need to grow by 2.9pc every year, for the next 50 years.
    But on present trends, growth for the next five years will average an annual rate of just 1.4pc, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility.
    We’re at risk of accepting a doom loop narrative,” says Williams. “But actually, none of this has to be inevitable – there are ways we can avert it.”
    ….The UK suffers from some of the highest childcare costs in the world, at about £936 per month, according to Money.co.uk. That compares to £511 in France, £271 in Germany and just £115 in Sweden.
    Meanwhile, the price of a typical home costs £351 per sq ft, according to property tech firm Moverly, compared to £212 in France and £236 in Germany.
    When combined with a punishing tax regime, it can make having a child less attractive for women who also value their careers.
    ….Another way to boost the young population is by allowing more working-age migrants into Britain.
    This is one of the solutions often advocated by business lobby groups, which have urged ministers to loosen restrictions to help ease staff shortages.

    Let them in, there is plenty of room for everyone…Charles Dickens

    • The actuaries who put together pension plans back in the 1960s and 1970s never stopped to think that the rapid growth (including inflation) would not continue. This growth was both in population and in standard of living.

      They didn’t stop to think that actual goods and services would need to be supplied to all of the retired and disabled people by the people working in future years. The combination of private pensions, public pensions, and health care would be too much for the smaller number of adult children living in the 2020s and 2030s.

      Governments especially liked the idea of generous pension plans. They could attract workers who had retired early from other jobs, with the offer of another pension, as well, if the already retired person would take a government job.

      • MikeJones says:

        Well now, suppose we will just have to learn to -Do Without- as Helen Nearing reflected on the depression days with her radical hubby in the wilds of Vermont from the squalor inner city of New York…
        It should be a reverse adventure from what they experience..
        How exciting!

        https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Czr3iJBY4z0&pp=ygUZSGVsZW4gbmVhcmluZyBkZXByZXNzaW9uIA%3D%3D

      • Mike says:

        What on earth would you have proposed? No pensions? No health care? Victorian poverty?

        • MikeJones says:

          It’s out of our control, Mike, because of multiple factors these are coming if we like it or not…
          Suppose it’s best you can through some of Gails writings to get a grip of the reality that is unfolding.

        • Victorian poverty, of course.

          Herbert Spencer had the perfect idea.

          • Mike Jones says:

            Naturally, Klum is not among those in Victorian poverty, but insulated of the upper crust…how comfy ,…as long as you can get away with it..
            Good luck with that pal

          • Tim Groves says:

            It’s more like Glum, the current status quo.

            There is absolutely no deference any more, and most people will do anything for enough money, or even for free donuts.

            I’m with Kulm. I’d like to go back to La Belle Époque or even further back to the French Second Republic or the Bourbon Restoration—as long as I was comfortably off and could dine in decent restaurants and enjoy the Paris opera and the follies, and maybe nip across to Vienna for a change of air.

        • Jeffrey R Snyder says:

          A realistic forecast of the future, Mike, instead of “the Jetsons.”

          Hey, we can create all this paper wealth for you retirees to live off of the “stored value” of your money, but it turns out that the worth of money is a function of energy and resources and the labor pool, and guess what, you might have a couple of million in retirement benefits coming your way but your society is not going to be able to either fund or pay that benefit and it is going to be worth only a fraction of what the nominal number suggests to your mind today, so you might want to plan on a different lifestyle now. Fewer children, less borrowing, some ability to provide for yourself from tangible real assets like some land and chickens instead of numbers in a bank account.

          Of course, this is rhetorical, humans as a group are incapable of this, only a very few are capable of it.

          • Mike Jones says:

            Many are called, few are chosen, those chosen, hear, those that hear actually listen, those that listen, go out and give it a try, those that try, most give up in a few years…and those that don’t, are marginalized

    • David says:

      The puzzle is that most UK baby boomers (born from about the end of the war to 1964) have *already* retired and the peak of the boom was in the years 1945 to 1949. Many of those folk will by now be dead.

      The wording used is rather vague and woolly. In some developed countries, 25% of the population are already over 65. Maybe the CPS should see whether Japan and Italy have problems.

      • Zemi says:

        Baby boomers:

        “The generation is often defined as people born from 1946 to 1964 during the mid-20th century baby boom.”

  17. MikeJones says:

    Professor

    Michael T. Klare is a Five Colleges professor of Peace and World Security Studies, whose department is located at Hampshire College, defense correspondent of The Nation magazine and author of Resource Wars and Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America’s Growing Petroleum Dependency

    Michael Klare: Collapse 2.0 August 18, 2023
    https://scheerpost.com/2023/08/18/michael-klare-collapse-2-0/

    To begin with, on a planetary basis, the environmental impacts of climate change are now unavoidable and worsening by the year. To take just one among innumerable global examples, the drought afflicting the American West has now persisted for more than two decades, leading scientists to label it a “megadrought” exceeding all recorded regional dry spells in breadth and severity. As of August 2021, 99% of the United States west of the Rockies was in drought, something for which there is no modern precedent. The recent record heat waves in the region have only emphasized this grim reality.

    The American West’s megadrought has been accompanied by another indicator of abiding environmental change: the steady decline in the volume of the Colorado River, the region’s most important source of water. The Colorado River Basin supplies drinking water to more than 40 million people in the United States and, according to economists at the University of Arizona, it’s crucial to $1.4 trillion of the U.S. economy. All of that is now at severe risk due to increased temperatures and diminished precipitation. The volume of the Colorado is almost 20% below what it was when this century began and, as global temperatures continue to rise, that decline is likely to worsen.

    The most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change offers many examples of such negative climate alterations globally (as do the latest headlines). It’s obvious, in fact, that climate change is permanently altering our environment in an ever more disastrous fashion.
    …..
    There are many other ways in which societies are now perpetuating behavior that will endanger the survival of civilization, including the devotion of ever more resources to industrial-scale beef production. That practice consumes vast amounts of land, water, and grains that could be better devoted to less profligate vegetable production. Similarly, many governments continue to facilitate the large-scale production of water-intensive crops through extensive irrigation schemes, despite the evident decline in global water supplies that is already producing widespread shortages of drinking water in places like Iran.

    Finally, today’s powerful elites are choosing to perpetuate practices known to accelerate climate change and global devastation. Among the most egregious, the decision of top executives of the ExxonMobil Corporation — the world’s largest and wealthiest privately-owned oil company — to continue pumping oil and gas for endless decades after their scientists warned them about the risks of global warming and affirmed that Exxon’s operations would only amplify them.

    When and how we might slip over the brink into catastrophe is impossible to foresee. But as the events of this summer suggest, we are already all too close to the edge of the kind of systemic failure experienced so many centuries ago by the Mayans, the ancient Puebloans, and the Viking Greenlanders. The only difference is that we may have no place else to go. Call it, if you want, Collapse 2.0.

    Welcome Professor Klare..to OFW…we can’t do much about it except get vaccinated

  18. Dennis L. says:

    This came into my email box, swarms of drones.

    https://dronelife.com/2023/11/29/percepto-receives-waiver-to-operate-30-drones-autonomously-the-holy-grail-of-industrial-drone-inspections/

    Some years back read “Kill Decision by Daniel Suarez where in a swarm of drones armed with single shot 410 guns attacked someone. I am thinking weeds and herbicide, squirt that weed is done.

    Drones can now be DYI, 3 D printed, with a modified facial recognition software to recognize weeds, a flock of these things may work well on spot weeding fields. Could be a reason why I am in the CC EE program in MN. Basically cost of capital could be going down, or return on capital going down and working capital needs greatly decreased. Sounds like a green dream. Nah, solar energy is too intermittent and when needed most, the winter too little daylight. But, wait, crops grow in summer, spraying is intermittent. Nah, can’t ever work.

    What I have learned here is 1. Find a use for solar that is intermittent, 2. find a way to store energy for when it is needed, 3. find a use which occurs during maximum solar incidence. Probably rules out running a steel mill.

    Dennis L.

    • Difficult to make the industrial drone without steel, I would expect.

      • drb753 says:

        I bet there is no steel in modern drones. Aluminum, carbon fiber, plastics, and circuitry stuff. Plus explosives.

        • It is difficult to make aluminum with intermittent electricity, too.

          • drb753 says:

            Oh I know. But note that the US is not even top ten in producing aluminum anymore. And notice that in Avdeyevka the battle scen is quite complex and already significantly different from Bakhmut last year (in part because the russian state has much better tools at its disposal than Wagner). Drones appear to be kings of the battle field, for both fine reconnaissance and precision hits.

          • Dennis L. says:

            Actually, they are printed with carbon fiber on 3D printers, printers are relatively cheap, Fusiion360 is free or close to it and has a CAM module to drive the printer.

            .5 cm GPS is doable by hobbyists , weed recognition is already supposedly demonstrated on YouTube DYI along with robotic battery replacement.

            The technology is becoming more available, AruduPilot is used frequently, it is open source.

            https://ardupilot.org/copter/docs/common-use-cases-and-applications.html

            Electronics is cheap and reliable and digital electronics seems less finicky than discrete part electronics.

            Herbicides are not cheap and there are serious health issues with handling them.

            I don’t think the world is going to crash, but that is a guess.

            Dennis L.

    • Cromagnon says:

      Oh sweet baby Jesus…….

      Just kill everyone associated with techno-industrial-digital information derived agriculture already. Its gonna die regardless lets just speed it up a bit.

      Uncle Ted was always correct

      and so was Genghis……

  19. Dennis L. says:

    This was recommended to me this AM, it is an interesting presentation regarding the US and has economic comments starting at 1:05 or so. The 33 trillion dollar debt has no solution. He is concerned about a decade out, my translation is next five years; alarmists are never regarded well.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xcm1oWMnpS4

    This is less opinion and more comments by a man who was there, Col Lawrence Wilkerson. What I don’t understand is why it took so long for him to see the issues when he was so deeply involved in the process.

    I repeat, I have few opinions, my goal is to understand the world and use what I learn locally in my own life. A choice was avoid the COVID shot, but had it been necessary to keep a job to support my family, reluctantly I would have done it. Some things are situational and we judge at our peril.

    Dennis L.

    • Hubbs says:

      “What I don’t understand is why it took so long for him to see the issues when he was so deeply involved in the process.”

      In nature, there are parasites that range from overt parasites to stealth parasites. My favorite example is the cuckoo bird, who lays its egg in the reed warblers nest. The Cuckoo egg hatches first and the cuckoo chick instinctively pushes the warbler’s eggs out of the nest. The warblers wind up raising a ravenous monster cuckoo bird. (Our government- the mother of all parasites, collectively and individually, and primarily and secondarily.)

      I am very suspicious or outright cynical of people who take government jobs. It alerts me to the fact that they can’t produce anything of value to offer society. They rely on the government. It’s not just bureaucrats, lawyers, and politicians. Take law enforcement for example. My general impression, formed years a go by a very pleasant retired cop who had to train a thug whom I encountered in Schenectady, NY said to me. “One third of the cops are nice guys. One third are there to collect a paycheck and pension and one third have issues.” So why do we now need all these super militarized police? Because the politicians ( see my yesterday’s post about the players and the pieces in the chessboard analogy) have created through illegal alien “immigration”, and freebies handed out in exchange for votes- a huge disincentive to work and an entitlement mindset that is more susceptible to temper tantrums. And a host of other actions to destabilize a homogenous society. Japan has a homogeneous population that somehow has been able to survive in modern times even when lacking critical natural resources namely energy, while the US has had it all, bicoastal water ports, abundant energy, minerals, fertile farmland, natural waterways for transport internally, etc.
      But back to parasites. Same for military. We somehow need all these soldiers to man our some 800 foreign outposts- all in the name of “protecting democracy.” Soldiers enlist not out of patriotism or the need to defend our country, but for the benefits. This why during depressions it is easier to get men to enlist.

      I didn’t watch this specific YT video although I occasionally tune into Alexander Mercouris. But this Wilkerson guy is no different after having parasitized off the government and accumulated wealth, now he suddenly gets religion. Same in the financial sector. Maneco64 on You Tube for example has been a parasite his entire working life selling bonds for the London banks, now lives comfortably with his weekend golf outings, poodle pets as he now preaches the evils of the finance industry and why we should all pile into gold. The hypocrisy is unbelievable. Bottom line, no one wants to really address the issues directly. They want to capitalize off them though You Tube Channels, financial investment blogs/subscriptions. It’s a massive opportunistic skimming operation that has been enabled by a fractional reserve, debt based fiat currency loaned into existence and central bank like the FED= the true enabler of wealth concentration, along with preferential tax laws, repeal of financial reforms that had kept these excesses under control like Glass-Steagall, and all the financialization gimmickry that has usurped true productivity, and resulted in increasingly unstable boom and bust speculation cycles- and not just financial, but I suspect secondarily population.

      We have passed the point of reversing this. There are no political, legal, or constitutional remedies to address these issues. There is no honest money, no honest media, no honest elections, and no rule of law. The majority of he people now are beneficiaries of government transfer payments ( even those who have paid into the system like with Social Security and Medicare). The suck will continue longer than we think, especially if the rest of the world goes first and flees to the false security of the US. Kind of like the passengers all climbing to the stern of the Titanic, the last section to go down.

      • Mario Innecco is really obnoxious.

        He sucked the teat of the City and now he pretends to comprehend it.

        But they all learned such behavior from Dwight Eisenhower, who spent the whole time sucking Soviet ass and doing nothing against the military industrial complex and just delivers an empty speech at the end of his term.

        He should be reburied in Moscow, along with people like Zhukov, for awarding Berlin to USSR.

      • Cromagnon says:

        I agree.

        The instant anyone accepts a government paycheck in any form they should be consigned forever to the children’s table during mealtime.

        If they have a law degree they should be flushed down the nearest toilet.

    • It has a solution

      Your God will bring the multitrillion dollar asteroid to the earth with his magnificent supernatural power.

    • One thing I would point out is that Col Wilkerson clearly doesn’t understand the energy situation, and that the problems that lack of energy is creating this adds another layer over what he is talking about. Without enough energy, ties such as NATO must necessarily dissolve.

  20. CTG says:

    OPEC+ Agrees On 1 Million Bpd Additional Oil Supply Cut, Alongside Extension Of Saudi 1MMb/d Cut

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/opec-agrees-1-million-bpd-additional-oil-supply-cut-alongside-extension-saudi-1mmbd-cut

    They have to cut or they want to cut?

    • Hubbs says:

      If any of these OPEC countries were to let on that their reserves were not what they advertised, the West would leave them faster than a high maintenance gold digger who discovered her sugar daddy was broke.

      • ARiverOfLiver says:

        I think the “West” (as in govts) know perfectly well the limits of oil reserves. This is a passion play where all actors play their part. We all know the ending but nobody wants to be the one that destroy the illusion.

        Why do you think the oligarchs have switched gears so suddenly in 2020? They know there is not much time left. According to many sources (including Gail) the downslope won’t be linear. Country after country will fall of the oil wagon and be reduced to a “natural” state (aka living on its own resources).

        While a minority of people are capable of downsizing (especially if they are rich enough so they can still be comfortable) no country can do that willingly.

        • Cromagnon says:

          Of course they know.

          What irritates me is that you cannot generally tell any of the unwashed masses what is going on without being looked at like you are a raving loon.

          The IQs are falling fast in the west and the cultures are following suit.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Sage Hannah claims to be someone who sees through the matrix… but he and his followers respond to energy posts like MOREONIC 10 yr olds…

            It’s all fake they say – to keep oil companies making money etc… they also will claim there are many other energy sources available but they are suppressed

            But they can never explain why we steam oil out of sand.

            Vaxxers A-Vaxxers… they are all MOREONS

  21. JMS says:

    Here’s a death to mourn. Shane MacGowan

    • Hubbs says:

      Can’t believe that I had never heard the song “Fairy Tale of NY” until last year when you or someone posted it here on OFW, and Gail even thanked for posting it. The cynicism in Fairy Tale is right up my alley. Plus fun to play along on my drums. The most scary line in Fairy Tale was in the drunk tank: .”Won’t see another one.”

      Reminds me of the line by the Japanese sub commander in the end of the movie “Mission of the Shark”

      “Captain, you are a man who believes in fate?”

      Captain McVay of the USS Indianapolis (Stacey Keach) : “No. I am a man who is trying to accept it.”

      • JMS says:

        Glad to know you became a fan. The Pogues have a ton of great songs, and surely McGowan’s lyrics can be darkly fun.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          He died from encephalitis … brain swelling … very rare… assume it’s the Rat Juice

          • JMS says:

            Nah, punk rockers don’t get rat juice. The guy spent decades drinking “whiskey by pints”.
            Amazing the he made it to 65.

    • lurker says:

      oof.

      • Tim Groves says:

        Sad to say, I must be on my way
        So buy me beer or whiskey ’cause I’m going far away….

  22. ivanislav says:

    Interesting article on Iraq’s integration with Russia and China in long term development agreements. Not just for oil, either.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/russia-takes-control-iraqs-biggest-oil-discovery-20-years

    • drb753 says:

      From my point of view that International North South transport corridor is looking better and better. Drop a container in Uglich, it will go all the way to Baghdad.

      • Student says:

        It excludes the old Europe (who refused the Silk Road and decided to collapse economies of its Countries) and it creates a virtuous circle with Russia, Cina, Middle East and India.

  23. Fast Eddy says:

    Yet another unfixable problem

    “Unrealized Losses” on Securities Held by Banks Jump by 22% to $684 Billion in Q3

    They amount to 32% of Tier 1 capital and don’t matter, until they suddenly do.

    https://wolfstreet.com/2023/11/30/unrealized-losses-on-securities-held-by-banks-jump-by-22-to-684-billion-in-q3-oh-lordy/

    And then there are the billions of unsecured loans in China … that will not get repaid…

    Armageddon approaches….

    Good time for the extermination to start — can you feel it building?

    • This is closely related to the recent increase in interest rates shown in Figure 2, compared to the falling interest rates for much of the period between 1981 and 2020.

      Balance sheets were buoyed up by the falling interest rates (and resulting asset prices) for many years. Now we are getting the reverse effect. Insurance companies have this same issue. Insurance companies file “Statutory” financial reports, besides GAAP reports. Statutory reports are based on the amortized cost of securities; GAAP reports use market value. But, if the securities are actually sold, then the price comes into play.

  24. Fast Eddy says:

    I am amazed as I browse through anti vax comments on SS and Telegram … just how captured these MOREONS are… they bite on just about anything to try to make sense of these kill shots…

    They are nearly as easily manipulated as the vaxxers…

    Who needs a boot on anyone’s neck when they can be run around by their noses forever by clever PR.

    Even if Fast Eddy explains to them why this is happening … they won’t listen…. they do not want the truth … anything but UEP.

    Not that it matters… UEP is a) necessary and b) impossible to stop.

    The darkness is rolling in … the most diabolical plan of all time… is approaching the end game… 6 billion immune damaged MOREONS… are about to be infected with a pathogen .. that will kill them…..

    https://media.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExdHlxM2F3c2R4Zjh3enoycGZ4ZG9vdTBkd3E3a2t5bHp0Nng5YjZxNiZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/Cn46Wi1Fvh11S/giphy.gif

  25. Fast Eddy says:

    The most deadly vaccine that was ever created before the Covid shots. There was no placebo and many children worldwide were killed and maimed. Some took their own lives because they couldn’t deal with the state that they were in. In the UK, we give this to both boys and girls. Joan Shenton did an incredible documentary that I would encourage everyone to watch;

    http://www.sacrificialvirgins.org/

    There is no evidence whatsoever that any virus causes cervical cancer.

    • Tim Groves says:

      And that was back when only girls had a cervix!

      If vaccines do indeed reduce the risk of developing and dying from diseases, as many experts insist,and I’m only saying “if”, then that’s very very bad for all the lives cut short due to vaccine hesitancy.

      But the cause is clear; lying liars lying about so much in the medical field and tyrannical tyrants tyrannizing the masses into consenting to be injected with poisons ostensibly to prevent a disease that even 80% of the old people confined to their cabins on the Diamond Princess couldn’t catch, and then gaslighting everyone when the jab-related deaths and disabilities started to appear.

      Anybody else done with believing the utterances of proven serial liars?

      • well Tim

        I auto-blocked eddy a long time ago

        does that count with serial liars.?

        I did not include your good self in the blockfest i might add

        • Tim Groves says:

          Cheers, Norman! And I think understand. My house has net screens on all the windows to keep out flies, gnats and mosquitoes, which can be irritating pests if given a free run of the place.

          There’s no particular reason to believe Eddy any more than there is to believe the BBC or the Department of Health, but Eddy isn’t pretending to have any expertise or authority, and he hasn’t been promoting the COVID scam. Also, if you block him you’ll be missing out on some really amazing anecdotes that are always nice to hear.

          Moreover, I haven’t blocked any of these media or government organs. I’ve merely ceased to believe them without good evidence or give them the benefit of the doubt. To go on believing, or even half-believing, the statements and reports of serial liars is to be like Charlie Brown taking another run up to that football.

          https://tenor.com/view/charlie-brown-football-lucy-gif-18988004

          • tim

            i block out that which is

            1—-constant attention seeking

            2—-based on inferiority (hence constant s exual innuendo to cover ignorance on any subject)

            3—- links which are obvious clickbait (which is why i never open them)

            4—-tedious repetition.

            5——childish inflation of ego

            no one else on ofw who covers those categories so consistently, i don’t block anyone else.
            there is obviously some problem there which i am not privy to—nor do i want to be.

        • Mike Roberts says:

          Now complete that by blocking replies to FE.

  26. Fast Eddy says:

    Not gonna happen https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/americans-now-need-to-spend-an-extra-11-400-each-year-just-to-afford-the-basics/ar-AA1kJv53

    The timing looks good for a release within the Yr of the Rabbit — so many things are unfixable with BAU….

    Once again … no point in trying to time it … if they get it wrong… the Gates of Hell open…

    Better to be early… and also to follow the script from Utopia

    • nikoB says:

      the end is nigh. It all begins with a guy called Warren.

    • The article starts out:

      The economic aftermath of the 2021 inflation surge continues to affect American households, with recent analysis revealing that maintaining the same standard of living as in January 2021 now demands an additional $11,434 annually.

      Despite a receding inflation rate and a seemingly strong economy, many families find themselves financially squeezed, struggling to bridge the gap between wage gains and the rising costs of essentials.

      The article mentions that this is a Republican analysis. I am sure Biden would disagree.

      CBS has a similar story that mentions that this is a Republican analysis in the title:
      https://www.cbsnews.com/news/inflation-households-need-extra-11400-these-states-its-even-higher/

      Americans need an extra $11,400 today just to afford the basics, Republican analysis finds

  27. Fast Eddy says:

    They’ve been conditioning the masses for this …. for decades https://sagehana.substack.com/p/magnificent-infectivity

  28. I AM THE MOB says:

    Horrifying moment mum collapses in front of daughter after injecting £150 ‘skinny jab’

    Michelle Sword, 45, had in 2020 bought a skinny jab which helped her lose weight but when she got another online this year she collapsed with dangerous blood sugar levels and nearly died

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/horrifying-moment-mum-collapses-front-31555093

  29. MG says:

    The secret of the Wallachians, that settled the deforested and degraded landscape of Slovakia was their sheep energy technology: MCTs are high the sheep milk and fight the dementia

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8919247/

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      did it help that the sheep pooped all over the land?

      • Jan says:

        Sheep and goats don’t help to build soil. Only grass and bovine do. It seems as if bovine manure contains useful microorganisms. What is more, bovine harvest grass with the tongue, which allows a quite large rest to regrow and the roots are not destroyed.

        Depleted or overused land tends to erosion, especially in mountain areas. It takes very long to recover naturally, look to Spain and France, where the depletion by the Romans are still visible. The forests in Germany and Austria are mostly artificially reforested by man!

        • drb753 says:

          This is not true at all. Sheep are just as good, better in fact for certain land problems, such as making the land more hospitable for bovines by turning undesirable plants and forest understory into manure. They will also over time change the pH of the forest floor, making it more hospitable to grasses when you cut it.

    • drb753 says:

      as if protecting from dementia does anything to preserve civilization. The Romans were wheat eaters, getting plenty of dementia, and they proceeded to conquer Europe. plus there are all sorts of other populations dementia free, among them Inuit and some Pacific Islanders. what kind of a secret is that?

      • Student says:

        Hello drb753 and all, maybe you arleady know or maybe you will find it interesting, but I woukd like to share with you that inside the very nice book from historical point of view intitled ‘Travels’ written by Ibn Battuta, the author says that during a long visit to the Kahn of an important nomad tribe north of Crimea (area current Ukraine/Russia) during about years 1335 he brought some very good sweets from Middle East in honour of the hospitality received, but the Kahn and his big tribe didn’t consume any sugars or wheats and they considered them dangerous for their health and strenght (of similar food they consumed only some rice in dishes with meat of various origins), so, in order not to be unpolite with Ibn, he just put a finger inside the dish offered by Ibn and he didn’t eat anything.
        Ibn understood the kindness of the Kahn and reply thanks to the Kahn.

        The book is very long, but it explains very well how people lived in middle age in various Countries of the planet, at the time and, for our interests, without fossil fuels :-).

        https://www.britannica.com/biography/Ibn-Battuta

        • drb753 says:

          yes, it is known that the Mongols were carnivore. They were much taller and stronger than the Russians, and a lot of their military strategy consisted in drawing out pitched battles for so long that the enemy would be exhausted. The Mongols being in ketosis they would then slaughter the enemy which would have lost all strength after only two days of fasting.

          • Student says:

            Sorry to bore you, but you are at the moment the only Russian living in Russia that I know and I’d like to learn something.
            As you mentioned Russia, I’d like to tell you that on satellite it is possible to find some channel like THT and TVRus also here in Italy.
            Unfortunately I don’t understand Russian, but those channels broadcast russian tv series which seem very funny and seem to have a kind of comedy which an European person could define politically not-correct or maybe desacrant.
            That kind of comedy can be find in Europe only in some French movies.
            What do you think about it?
            In my view it is a pity that those Russian channels don’t add English subtitles (to make it understandable to Europeans)

            • drb753 says:

              As I do not have a TV I do not see them. I get plenty of practice in everyday’s life and that is good enough for me. But obviously yes, Russian humor tends to be the way you describe, it is far more abrasive esp. with respect to people in power. Putin himself is like that, and he himself got victimized by that comics duo that calls famous politicians (I had a fight with an old italian friend when they victimized Meloni a few weeks back). Generally a way to put people in their place across society. Italians generally understand this type of humor.

            • ARiverOfLiver says:

              Student, I can try to help.
              Go to yandex.com (the best search engine in the world) and look for “watch tv for free” or anything similar. You will find tens of free website with tv channels from anywhere in the world.

              You can also translate the query to russian and you will find russian specific pages.

              Even better, I recommend Yandex browser so Google doesn’t know what you are doing.

              For those that worry about the legality, I can assure you that CIA is supporting this (how else would this websites store petabytes of data, or get movies BEFORE they are in the theatres?). CIA does not care about money (they can print it) as long as the whole world is being propagandized by Netflix and the like. Yes, you will be watching russian shows but that is unimportant enough that they don’t care…

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Why would anyone want to watch TEEv?

          • Cromagnon says:

            It has been my life’s work to try and get people in western Canada to emulate the life ways of the Mongols.
            They are the only template of human life (along with indigenous bison hunters) that has even a remote chance of preserving a small vestige of “above bestial” human existence in the vastness of the North American interior as this collapse unfolds.

            I have almost completely failed in the effort.

            Modern technical humanity is too far gone to even recognize the dangers it faces from things as simple as nightly temperatures in the more challenging environs of the simulacrum.

        • Retired Librarian says:

          Student, very interesting about early travel book & warriors not eating wheat. Thanks!

  30. Fast Eddy says:

    One has to wonder if Kissinger decided to exit… before the die-off begins…..

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      maybe his death is the starting signal.

      ooh, blows my mind, man.

    • postkey says:

      “It turns out that without Henry Kissinger, there probably would have been no INF treaty, no START treaty, no SALT agreements, no ABM treaty—no arms control.
      Without Henry Kissinger, there would very likely have been a nuclear war.”?

  31. I AM THE MOB says:

    Every civilization that has ever existed has ultimately collapsed.”

    — Henry Kissinger

  32. Sarah J says:

    • About the very low life expectancy of the American Indian, and what led to this situation.

      • Cromagnon says:

        The Cheyenne and the Blackfoot of the northern great plains were among the largest and healthiest specimens of humanity worldwide until they crashed into the European expansion in the mid 1800s.

        The only technological acquisition they required to become demigods of their world was the reintroduction of the horse in the 16th century.

        It is my sincere hope that some strange assemblage of humanity can emulate those tribes in the near future as the system dissolves.

        Yamnaya culture reborn perhaps, half a world away?

  33. Fast Eddy says:

    F789 all vaccines… they are toxic garbage… if there is any value in them then great – let the MORE-ONS take all the risks…

    https://hiddencomplexity.substack.com/p/mrna-vaccination-in-children-alters

    Stay Safe – Reject All Vaccines

  34. Tim Groves says:

    Henry Kissinger dead at 100.

    It would have been worse without ….. Oh never mind.

    • JMS says:

      The death of a murderous sociopath is always good news, but nothing to write home about.
      Really awesome it would be if all the people whose phone number he has had also died. And i mean ALL of them, from the big brass & big shots to the last of his great-grandchildren. THAT would make me open a bottle, if not of champagne, at least of fine Douro wine.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Ya but he was instrumental in ensuring that Americans have lived really large…

        Recall how he cut that deal with the Saudis — the US would protect them but they had to dump most of their oil cash into US debt purchases…

        hahaha

        • Without him this blog, or virtually all digital world, would not exist as well

        • JMS says:

          The cut with the Saudis was excellent for the owners of the FED and for the US government, whose economy was able to live largely on the sale of dollars. Sadly enough, I’m not American. But i get what you mean.

      • They are the pillars of the earth which maintains civilization.

        If they are defeated we get total chaos

    • Retired Librarian says:

      Lol!

    • Rodster says:

      Neocons are not immortal. One less warmongering evil POS walking the earth.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      There are limits to how long infusing fresh baby blood can extend life…

    • drb753 says:

      As Eddy points out in a comment I have no time to find, it would have been worse without children blood transfusions.

  35. Fast Eddy says:

    Looky

    https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1300,h_650,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe461abdd-6a71-4267-9e2c-55a789e4f4f6_1920x1080.png

    https://news.rebekahbarnett.com.au/p/west-australian-government-finally

    angelo… is there a war?

    if not then surely this must make your pulse race… just a bit… given the amount of Rat Juice you’ve shot into your carcass

    IT MAY AT FIRST SEEM AN EXTRAORDINARY THING TO SAY, BUT THE FACT IS THAT AUSTRALIA IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A PROLONGED ELEVATED RATE OF DEATH ACROSS ALL AGE GROUPS. AN EXAMINATION OF THE OFFICIAL FIGURES SHOWS RATES IN THE VICINITY OF 12-17% ABOVE BASELINE AVERAGES, RATES NEVER SEEN SINCE WARTIME. THEY LEAPT UP IN EARLY 2021 AND CONTINUE AT UNUSUAL LEVELS TO THIS DAY. https://ianbrighthope.substack.com/p/too-many-dead/

  36. moss says:

    winning their hearts and minds …

    In a letter, dated 20 November, sent to commerce ministry’s Senior Secretary Tapan Kanti Ghosh by Md Salim Reza, minister (commerce) at the Embassy of Bangladesh, the embassy said there are reasons to believe that Bangladesh may be one of the targets of the US’ recently released memorandum on labour rights.
    The latest policy of the United States on labour rights warrants enough reasons for Bangladesh to be alarmed, the Bangladesh Embassy in Washington has said, stating that the issue should be “taken into cognizance with priority by concerned stakeholders”.

    tbsnews.net/economy/rmg/Bangladesh-could-be-one-targets-US-labour-policy-Washington-mission-commerce-ministry

    a shining example of what happens after rolling over for the IMF

    • “He further mentioned that imposing duties or sanctions would lead to the closure of a significant number of factories, jeopardising the livelihoods of countless workers.”

      The US is talking about sanctions. The sanctions would hurt the poor workers of Bangladesh.

  37. hkeithhenson says:

    The clinical, biologic, and immunologic features that we observed in these prepandemic and SARS-CoV-2–negative patients are indistinguishable from those seen in patients with MIS-C. Rarely seen before the Covid-19 pandemic, this syndrome was not individualized and was reported as atypical Kawasaki’s disease, a syndrome resembling toxic shock syndrome, or Kawasaki’s disease shock syndrome (Tables S1 and S2). Therefore, MIS-C characterized by Vβ21.3+ T-cell expansion would appear to represent a severe pediatric condition that may be triggered by other pathogens, including seasonal HCoV. The presence of a SARS-CoV-2 spike is dispensable for Vβ21.3+ T-cell expansion and MIS-C. Although the management of MIS-C has improved,5 further research is needed to elucidate the underlying mechanisms of T-cell activation and to develop targeted interventions for this critical pediatric condition.

    Last paragraph at

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2307574?query=TOC&cid=NEJM%20eToc,%20Novermber%2030,%202023%20DM2304898_NEJM_Non_Subscriber&bid=1951499147

    The article is deeply technical, but some of you may grok it.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      you live in a don’t ask don’t tell bubble where no one you know will admit to any vaccine injury, because they might become outcasts accused of doubting the accepted groupthink.

      though you may not be able to grok that.

      • hkeithhenson says:

        “they might become outcasts”

        I didn’t write that, it was a copy/paste from the NEJM. You can read the rest at the URL.

        • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

          and you can ask everyone you know.

          but you won’t.

          the vaxxed injured would most likely lie or deny anyway.

          must not risk becoming outcasts.

          it is what it is.

  38. Fast Eddy says:

    Nearly 7000 results… full court press is on… PR Team is pumping it out … big time…

    ooooohhhh ahhhhhhh

    ‘Mysterious.’
    ‘Funky’

    https://www.google.com/search?q=Mycoplasma+pneumoniae&sca_esv=586470193&tbm=nws&source=lnms&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi-3NW4weqCAxWF2DQHHUJTAuQQ_AUoAnoECAUQBA&biw=1264&bih=542&dpr=1.5

    Hopefully this is IT> it’s boring waiting

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      how many years have you waited?

      10 or more?

      what’s a handful more (2030)?

      tempus fugit.

      hahahahahahaha.

  39. Fast Eddy says:

    PR Team is busy… https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Mycoplasma+pneumoniae&iar=news&ia=news

    China says respiratory disease surge driven by mix of pathogens, calls to ‘minimise personnel movement and visits’
    scmp.com|3 days ago
    National Health Commission spokesman Mi Feng said the growth in cases was being driven by the influenza virus as well as rhinoviruses, mycoplasma pneumoniae, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV …

    Ahhh… so it’s a mixture of pathogens… how about we add The Real Deal into that mix…. the one they cooked up in the lab many years ago that slots in with the Rat Juice to kill the Vaxxers???

    How about it???? Yes… yes… that might be the ticket… this could be the warm up lap…

  40. Fast Eddy says:

    Looks like folks are realizing retirement funds won’t be necessary – cuz they can feel the world is ending https://t.me/EdwardDowdReal/472

    • One in six people have tapped retirement funds, to some extent, according to the video.

      Near the end of the video, it mentions that the Biden administration is thinking about making tapping retirement funds easier than it is now, hoping to reduce the downturn and make re-election easier.

  41. Fast Eddy says:

    A study from Norway uncovered a higher likelihood of COVID-19 infections among individuals who regularly wore masks, compared to those who didn’t.

    Key insights from the study:

    • This startling outcome emerged from a detailed analysis involving 3,209 participants, monitored over a 17-day period for their mask usage habits.

    • A notable increase in COVID-19 positivity was observed among frequent mask users: from 8.6% in rare mask wearers to over 15% in consistent users.

    • Adjustments for various factors revealed a 33-40% elevated infection rate in regular mask wearers, although further adjustments suggested a more modest 4% increase.

    Full Article: bit.ly/Mask-Wearer-Study

    Lack of oxygen also increases their stoooopidity too — brain damage

  42. Fast Eddy says:

    Anyone care to comment on this?

    Mycoplasma pneumoniae may warrant closer attention. Outbreaks, recurrent or severe infections are signs of a weakened immune system.

    Mycoplasma pneumoniae (M. pneumoniae) is one of the leading causes of community-acquired pneumonia in children and is also implicated in a variety of reactive extrapulmonary diseases. Recurrent and/or severe respiratory infections are one of the most frequent manifestations of several types of primary immunodeficiency.

    Here, we reviewed the medical literature to assess the potential relevance of M. pneumoniae in the infections observed in children affected with combined, humoral, and innate primary immune deficiencies. M. pneumoniae does not result to be epidemiologically prevalent as a cause of pneumonia in children affected by primary immunodeficiencies, but this infection can have a persistent or severe course in this category of patients. Indeed, the active search of M. pneumoniae could be useful and appropriate especially in children with humoral immune deficiencies.

    Indeed, most cases of M. pneumoniae infection in primary immunodeficiencies are described in patients affected by a/hypo-gammaglobulinemia.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9286979/

    “We found no known DNA or RNA viruses, no bacterial pathogens, no fungal pathogens,” says Needle, “We were sort of at a breaking point.”

    Until finally, a clue: A short segment of DNA belonging to what — as far as Needle can tell — appears to be bacteria that no one has ever described before.

    “We think this may be a pathogen,” he says, “It’s something novel. It’s in a proportion of the cases. It’s funky.”

    https://drpanda.substack.com/p/pandemic-2-mystery-respiratory-illness

    It’s like a puzzle… Fast Eddy gives you the various pieces… you can assemble them … or you can dismiss them … you can take more boosters…

    This is an important pc… remember how FE provided the pieces that demonstrate how the Rat Juice f789s the immune system? No vax injury in most… but immune system damage in all…

    All. Every … single… vaxxer….

    And now we see a pathogen that exploits that to cause pneumonia…

    Remember Fast Eddy saying 6B will die from pneumonia??? Remember that???

    And now we have pneumonia… in kids who never would have contracted this brand of pneumonia … cuz it primarily affects those who are immunocompromised…

    As speculated… this might not be the Real Deal rather just a way to get more folks injecting more Rat Juice… the more they inject the less suffering there will be in the long run

    One last major push to get this stuff into the bodies of the hesitant… f789 up some more immune systems…

    Then BAM! The Real Deal makes its appearance…

    And the mass die-off begins. As it rips through the 6B vaxxers… keep in mind it doesn’t have to kill all of them … just lots of them…

    So the fear is REAL… so the DEAL is real… so that everyone embraces total lock .. total martial law….

    And those not dead from newmonia… starve.

    Feel free to discuss…

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      discuss: you were saying other stuff like this back when I started commenting here in 2017.

      32 days until 2024.

      hahahahaha.

      tempus fugit.

      haha.

    • Jan says:

      It neednt be a compromised immune system. There are various mechanisms to cause this effect by mRNA injections. This platform let’s thrombocytes infiltrate amoung others lung tissue which looks like an inflammation. There is bacterial DNA in the jabs. The microbiom might be affected by other ingredients or beneficial bacterias in the gut may be affected by the injected DNA. The jabs cause IgG4 antibodies to appear which is connected to a higher tolerance against pathogens. The covid measures were not healthy for lower class children.

  43. Hubbs says:

    I had forwarded a YT video of chess, I think this is in Russia, to my daughter yesterday and then today this post on http://www.survivalblog.com shows up. A good analogy.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-7yVWxsz80
    https://survivalblog.com/2023/11/29/21st-century-geopolitical-chessboard/

  44. Angelo Babli says:

    If you’re vaccinated, don’t take the booster this fall; it is not helping, according to the chart below.
    If you’re not vaccinated, four of every five deaths are not vaccinated.
    Your odds of dying are over three times higher.

    Unvaccinateds are playing with a bad ‘offsuit’ hand. If or when COVID calls your bluff, it might cost your life.

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/united-states-rates-of-covid-19-deaths-by-vaccination-status

    • ivanislav says:

      I wonder whether cause of death is attributed differently based on vaccination status. “This person was vaccinated, so let’s not put COVID as cause of death.”

      • Kowalainen says:

        Right, and only 78 boosters administered instead of the obligatory 173, which makes this person unvaccinated according to some arbitrary standard set by a bunch of Hyper MOARons and Hyper Tryhards in the eternal recurrence of the Hyper.

        It’s not even absurd.

    • Student says:

      Angeloooo, this is old stuff..
      Have you been frozen in 2021 and defrosted now?
      Ma basta, sei un palla tremenda

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Well then it’s 7 shots for angelo? More angelo…take more … take one every month!!!

      Check out bbccnn for what to think next

    • Replenish says:

      “But the big deal in the data is not that deaths patterns in the population correlates with death patterns among the vaccinated majority. The big issue is that there is no correlation whatsoever between the death patterns of the population as a whole and the death patterns of the UNvaccinated. The number of deaths in the unvaccinated goes down approximately 10% in the period July-October. Even when we correct for the maximum 9% reduction in the cohort size of the unvaccinated, there is still no increase in the number of deaths among the unvaccinated..”

      “We can say for sure that the increase in deaths from July to October in 2021 happens exclusively among the vaccinated. What does that mean? It means that whatever agent of death swept the country, it did NOT indiscriminately ravage all cohorts. Instead, it selected out the vaccinated and left the unvaccinated unscathed.”

      https://metatron.substack.com/p/mortality-by-vaccination-status-in

      • Angelo Babli says:

        Replenish, I don’t have the time, but if you do, try the link below. You might find your answers there, hopefully. If you do, let us know.
        Make sure you scroll down to the data/charts.

        https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Ok great … now angelo – go get another shot

        You can see why FE takes great delight in the Vaxxers getting maimed and killed by their boosters…

        angelo is a perfect example of how they think… till they get that live round…

        then these losers come begging for $$$ to help them… f789 THEM. F789 THEM

  45. Angelo Babli says:

    Everyone has the right to sound idiotic sometimes, but comrade Fast Eddy abuses this privilege.

    Comrade Fast Eddy: WHENEVER I SEE SOMEONE WEARING A MASK… IN LIGHT OF THE FACT THAT THE BEST MASKS N95 … I IMMEDIATELY LABEL THE WEARER AS A STOOOOPID MOREON… A NON-CRITICAL THINKER… SOMEONE WHO RELIES ON BBCCNN TO TELL THE WHAT TO DO

    I SEE THEM AS ONE WOULD A COCKROACH.

    Now, reconcile comrade Fast Eddy above with Aerosol Science and Technology below:

    Aerosol Science and Technology: Estimating the reduction in SARS-CoV-2 viral load by common face masks with a simple leak model.
    Face masks let a large portion of exhaled aerosols through because most of these are smaller than 1 µm in diameter, but block most of the viral load, which is carried on larger particles. A particle with a diameter of 3 µm has 1000 times the viral load of a 0.3 µm aerosol so is far more important to filter.

    “Any fool can know. The point is to understand.” ― Albert Einstein, German physicist.

    https://www.tandfonline.com/journals/uast20

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Enjoy your mask angelo – didn’t fauci mention it was best if you used 3 .. for more safe????

      You truly are operating on a very low level … why are you on OFW????

    • Fast Eddy says:

      The Four Deadly Ways COVID Vaccines Kill: Insights from Dr. Peter McCullough

      #1 – Cardiovascular: heart inflammation, myocarditis, cardiac arrest.

      #2 – Neurologic: All forms of stroke, Guillain–Barré syndrome, neuropathy.

      #3 – “Blood clotting like we’ve never seen in medicine before”: Don’t respond to typical blood thinners. A “disaster.”

      #4 – Immune system abnormalities: Suppressed immune systems, autoimmune disease, etc.

      For those wary of spike protein shedding or the long-term effects of the shot, Dr. McCullough has recently published the first-ever spike protein detoxification protocol in a US medical journal, as summarized here:

      https://vigilantnews.com/post/first-ever-spike-detox-protocol-appears-in-medical-journal-heres-how-you-can-get-better

      • Angelo Babli says:

        Fast Eddy, if you or anyone here search CARDIAC COMPLICATION FROM COVID-19, then you search CARDIAC COMPLICATION FROM COVID-19 VACCINES on the internet, I believe you’ll realize that the vaccines outweigh this risk even if you get COVID after taking the vaccine.

        Let me give you some examples.

        There were 1,626 cases of myocarditis among more than 354 million primary doses given between December 2020 and August 2021.
        There were 37 cases of myocarditis among more than 81 million booster doses given between September 22, 2021, and February 6, 2022.
        There were 6 cases of myocarditis among about 40,000 people in the Novavax clinical trial.

        Now, compare that with COVID-19 myocarditis deaths.

        As of January 18, 2023: Covid Hearth Deaths in the US: 629,235
        Hypertensive Disease: 202,541
        Ischemic Heart Disease: 120,264
        Cardiac Arrest: 129,552
        Cardiac Arrhythmia: 87,082
        Heart Failure: 89,796

        0 to 4 years old: 706 deaths
        5 to 18: 1,029 deaths
        19 to 44: 44,275 deaths

        Note: These are old numbers; they could have been revised up or down, so check these numbers. But one thing is evident: COVID is a lot worse for your health and heart than the vaccine.

        If or when the data changes, I will go with the data because I don’t care which way the data leads me. Right now, I am with the data and not you. I’ll agree with you if or when the data changes and proves you are right.

        Right now, I just can’t.

        It is what it is.

        • Mike Roberts says:

          The data on COVID-19 deaths isn’t very good, here in New Zealand, but the hospitalisation data is better. Ever since Omicron, it’s been fairly consistent that getting a booster takes you back to roughly the level of protection against hospitalisation of unvaccinated. Getting just the primary course has shown the best level of protection against hospitalisation. There may be age-related nuances but we don’t have the data to determine that.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            I fail to understand how the spike protein in Covid causes all sorts of problems for people… yet injecting shit that makes the body pump out epic amounts of this spike for months if not years…

            Is helpful.

            This is just so f789ing du.mb

            But hey … I do support people taking more boosters… I am virulently anti-stooopid so whatever kills off MORE-ONS… is a good thing

        • Fast Eddy says:

          https://pdfhost.io/v/nvrgA~sEJ_VAERS_Heart_Damage_V8

          hahahahaaha and it’s far worse now

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “Face masks let a large portion of exhaled aerosols through because most of these are smaller than 1 µm in diameter, but block most of the viral load, which is carried on larger particles. A particle with a diameter of 3 µm has 1000 times the viral load of a 0.3 µm aerosol so is far more important to filter.”

      GOOD POINT, ANGELO!

      BUT ANGELO, when you took the shots in your shoulder, the spike proteins bypassed YOUR MASK!

      so WHY ANGELO WHY?

      WHY did you take SO MANY SHOTS in your shoulder?

      • Tim Groves says:

        Was it because Angelo trusted the ScienceTM?

        My own question today is, how can an immunizing factor delivered into the deltoid muscle produce an immune response that protects against a viral infection in the lungs?

        • Angelo Babli says:

          MY OWN QUESTION TODAY IS, HOW CAN AN IMMUNIZING FACTOR DELIVERED INTO THE DELTOID MUSCLE PRODUCE AN IMMUNE RESPONSE THAT PROTECTS AGAINST A VIRAL INFECTION IN THE LUNGS?

          Here’s your answer:
          Vaccines (proteins and sugars) vs. Inflammation (virus) in 90 seconds.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Duh..

          • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

            YES ANGELO…

            and the science since the 1950s said that OAS would mean that a coronavirus would always mutate to get around the vaccine for the original strain.

            2021-2023 PROVED THE SCIENTISTS WERE CORRECT.

            FOLLOW THE SCIENCE, ANGELO.

            immune imprinting, antibody fixation yes? so THE SCIENCE says that boosters do nothing to stop the variants, because people’s immune responses are fixed against the original strain.

            YOU KNOW THE SCIENCE, RIGHT?

            oh wait…

            YOU DON’T REALLY KNOW THE SCIENCE YET?

            come on Babbling, catch up.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Babble Babble Babble… we just want angelo to get the f789ing booster.

              Come on angelo – go get it!

              BTW – a friend is experiencing severe fatigue — he used to be in the gym most days and out hiking in the mountains on weekends…

              A mutual friend (who has heart damage from the Rat Juice) spoke to him about this many months ago — and he was bewildered … he said that it could not be long covid cuz he never caught covid… he dismissed the Rat Juice (he’s had 3 or 4 shots)…

              Anyhow… now he is claiming he DID have covid and this must be long covid… and that he never said he never had covid hahahaha

              The thing is … I recall the other mate telling me this story …

              Since he does not attribute it to the Rat Juice… he’ll know doubt continue injecting when bbccnn insists folks get more boosters cuz the pneumonia…

              This is where being really dummmb and in denial… can kill you

          • TIm Groves says:

            Thanks Angelo. Well, it seems that your education has some gaping holes in it.

            Dr. Stanley Plotkin, in the above short video, was explaining how conventional vaccines induce immunity “in the bloodstream”.

            However, airborne viruses create lung infections that cause disease on the surface of the lungs, which are in contact with the air, as is the skin and the alimentary canal.

            I’m going to hand over to Gaute Adler Nilsen to explain this:

            Immunity against airborne viruses is created in your gut, not in your blood as injections would imply. This may sound strange, but it will make sense.

            The surface of our lung’s interior, throat, and nose need to be constantly cleared from dust, bacteria, viruses, and irritants. This is achieved by constantly releasing mucus, most of which we swallow and end up in our gut. Our gut’s primary function is to absorb nutrients, it’s constantly selecting good material from what we can do without. This selection mechanism can also detect harmful viruses, now specialized immune cells develop antibodies against this virus, and travels up to the lungs and airways where it starts delivering these antibodies(sIgA) into the mucus and thus neutralizing any further virus infection. That’s it, nice and easy.

            Professor Robert Clancy explains it (starting at 6:45):

            https://youtu.be/FPPnyzvO7J4

            https://gaute.substack.com/p/lets-put-an-end-to-pandemics-and?nthPub=821

        • Fast Eddy says:

          cnnbbc says it does… so angelo says it does… and norm / keith

          Zero intelligence on display

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Cuz angelo is …. _____________

        Oh remember when they said the Rat Juice would stop you from getting covid – but then Fizzer said they never tested for transmission – and all the MOREONS got Covid a dozen times?

        hahahaha it’s all here on video https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=397

        angelo – they lied to you … that doesn’t trouble you? Oh right you are ______________

    • According to the article,

      “Today the BEA revised its second estimate of third-quarter GDP from 4.9 percent to 5.2 percent. GDI is 1.5 percent but it is a measure of the same thing.”

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