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In the US, companies that want to build liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals need to get advance approval for their plans from the US Department of Energy. There was a recent news item saying, “Biden pauses LNG export approvals under pressure from climate activists.” After looking into the situation, I 100% agree with Biden’s decision. There is no sense in the US adding more approvals for added LNG capacity at this time. This is the case, completely apart from climate considerations.
When looking into the situation, I found that the US already has a huge amount of LNG export capacity approved but not yet under construction. The likely roadblock is the need for debt financing. One obstacle is the need to find investors willing to make very long commitments–as long as 25 years, considering the time to build the LNG plants, plus the time that they are expected to be in operation. Issues that could be expected to get in the way of long-term investment would include:
- Today’s relatively high interest rates.
- Today’s low US natural gas prices (Henry Hub natural gas price is currently $1.64 per million Btus, a near-record low), discouraging investment in natural gas extraction.
- The possibility that US oil and natural gas extraction from shale formations will reach limits within the next 25 years.
- The possibility that overseas buyers will not be able to afford exported LNG at the prices needed to make extraction profitable. For example, a selling price of $25 per million Btus would probably greatly reduce the quantity of LNG that could be sold in the EU.
- The possibility of construction delays caused by broken supply lines.
- The possibility of fires causing significant down-time in operating facilities.
- Even if natural gas is available for export, and even if LNG export facilities are built, there is the possibility that the rest of the system, including specialized LNG transport ships, may not be available in sufficient quantities.
In this post, I will try to give some background on this issue.
[1] Many people seem to believe that the US can easily ramp up natural gas production for export if it chooses to do so.
There seems to be a common belief that the US has an almost unlimited supply of oil. Natural gas is produced together with oil, so a corollary to the high supply of oil is that the US has an almost unlimited supply of natural gas.
At the same time, there are many parts of the world with an inadequate supply of natural gas. Many of these countries are trying to add wind and solar power generation. Natural gas is very helpful for balancing wind and solar because electricity production from natural gas can be ramped up and down very quickly, filling in when intermittent sources of supply are not available.
The European Union (EU) is one area that has very inadequate natural gas supply (Figure 1). The EU is also known for its use of wind and solar power, so it needs natural gas for its balancing ability.
If it is true that the US has a huge supply of US natural gas, all that would seem to be needed to solve the EU’s wind and solar balancing problem is for the US to export natural gas to the EU.
The modern way of exporting natural gas seems to be as LNG, transported by specialized ships at a very low temperature (about – 260°F (-161.5°C)). It appears that all that the US needs to do is to ramp up its natural gas production, and with it, its LNG export infrastructure.
[2] Natural gas prices vary widely around the world. US prices are much lower than elsewhere. These differences would also seem to support building more LNG export facilities.
Figure 2 shows that US natural gas prices are much lower than elsewhere. This has especially been the case since 2008 when the shale boom began, making it look as if the US can easily export natural gas if it likes. Even with the cost of shipping included, it looks as if consumers in the EU and Japan might find US LNG attractive in price.
[3] Natural gas tends to be cheap to extract but getting it to the customer and storing it until the right time of year is an expensive headache.
Natural gas is a fuel that is disproportionately used in winter to heat homes and businesses. This heat can be provided by burning the natural gas directly, or it can be provided by first burning the natural gas to produce electricity, and then using a device, such as a heat pump, to provide heat.
If natural gas can be utilized close to where it is extracted, there tends to be a huge cost advantage over long-distance transport. Clearly, one reason is that utilization near the point of extraction reduces transit costs. Also, empty gas caverns that can be used for storage are often available near the point of extraction. This storage approach is much less expensive than building specialized tanks for storage. These cost advantages are one reason why US natural gas prices shown on Figure 2 are much lower than those in the EU and Japan.
[4] Low natural gas prices in the US are now well “baked into the system.”
With natural gas prices remaining low for around the past 16 years, individuals and businesses have adjusted their consumption patterns based on the assumption that an abundant supply of inexpensive natural gas will be available permanently. US natural gas production has approximately doubled since its low point in 2005, and consumption has almost kept up.
Many changes have taken place since gas prices fell. The US electrical system has significantly reduced its reliance on coal and instead increased its utilization of natural gas. People have built oversized homes based on the assumption that cheap natural gas will be available to heat them. Businesses have built factories in the US under the assumption that electricity costs of the US will continue to be low compared to those in Europe, Japan, and many other parts of the world, indirectly because of the US’s inexpensive supply of natural gas.
These low electricity and natural gas prices give the US a competitive advantage in making goods for export. With the shift away from coal for electricity production, the US can now say that it has reduced the carbon intensity of its electricity. Politicians like the competitive advantage for the US as well as the lower carbon intensity. Few of them would vote to go back to earlier ways, even if it was possible to do so.
[5] Natural gas tends to be utilized close to where it is produced. The early form of natural gas export was by pipeline. In recent years, LNG exports have increased.
Figure 4 shows that, consistently, about 75% of natural gas is used in the region where it is extracted. This happens because natural gas tends to be inexpensive close to the point of extraction. The use of inexpensive resources helps make an economy competitive in the world market, making them attractive for local use.
Pipeline trade tends to be inexpensive if the distance is short. The disadvantage is that pipeline gas tends to be inflexible; prices are often locked in for long periods. Pipelines can be a disadvantage if they pass through another county. The country allowing transit will likely want to make a charge for this service; this can lead to conflict. Pipelines can easily be blown up if countries start fighting with each other.
LNG is the newer approach to exporting natural gas. Its advantage is its flexibility; its disadvantage tends to be its higher cost when the entire cost of the operation is considered. There need to be export facilities where the natural gas is chilled and loaded into specialized tankers. Investors, quite possibly from another country, need to invest in the specialized tankers used to transport the LNG. At the other end, there is the need for regasification plants and for gas pipelines to the facilities where the gas is to be utilized.
Recouping the total cost of the system can be a problem with LNG. If prices are set under long-term contracts pegged to the price of oil, as has been the case between Japan and Russia, advantageous prices for the producers can be obtained. (Note the high prices Japan has been paying in Figure 2.) Of course, with long-term contracts, the flexibility of the system is lost.
In some years, there has been more LNG capacity than required in Europe. Exporters without long-term contracts started selling natural gas at spot prices, depending upon the balance between supply and demand at the time of the sale. (Notice the lower natural gas prices for Europe in Figure 2). It is not clear to me that investors can earn enough on their investments, if they are forced to depend on spot prices, which can easily fall too low if there is excess supply.
On the other hand, if the LNG market gets tight, as it did in 2022, spot prices can jump very high, making it difficult for LNG buyers to find affordable supply.
[6] An analysis by the EIA indicates that the US already has a great deal of LNG export capacity at some stage of development.
The most recent EIA analysis of LNG capacity in the process of being developed is shown at this link.
The above analysis was performed using data as of the end of 2022. It shows that at that time, the amount of liquefaction capacity was
- 37.0 billion cubic feet/day (Bcf/d), considering existing, under-construction and approved liquefaction capacity.
- 18.7 Bcf/d, considering existing and under-construction liquefaction capacity.
More recent information is also available. A release dated January 26, 2024, by the Department of Energy says,
The United States is the global leader in LNG exports with 14 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in current operating capacity and 48 Bcf/d in total authorizations approved by DOE to date, over three times our current export capacity.
This quote seems to imply that the total authorizations increased from 37.0 Bcf/d to 48 Bcf/d, based on an unpublished, more recent, analysis.
The 14 Bcf/d in current operating capacity is far above recent LNG export amounts. The actual quantity of US LNG produced in 2022 was 10.8 Bcf/d based on the data underlying Figure 5. Based on data through November 2023, I would estimate that amount of LNG produced in 2023 amounted to about 11.7 Bcf/d. These comparisons suggest that the actual amount of LNG produced may lag significantly below the stated export capacity.
If we compare the total exports authorized of 48 Bcf/d to the actual production amount (about 11.7 Bcf/d for 2023), the ratio is over 4, implying a very high amount of authorized additional LNG production capacity.
[7] The EIA model shown in Figure 5 indicates that several conditions need to hold for LNG exports to ramp up substantially.
(a) Figure 5 indicates that for NGL exports to increase significantly, both oil and natural gas prices need to be high. With low oil and low natural gas prices, exports do not increase much at all, regardless of the infrastructure built. (As I noted in the introduction, US natural gas prices are now very low. World oil prices are not very high, either. Thus, the model indicates that not much ramping up in NGL exports should be expected, even if more export capacity is added.)
(b) To enable export of the maximum amount of LNG overseas, “Fast Builds” of the rest of the infrastructure also needs to be high. In other words, there must be rapid growth in the number of LNG transport carriers and in receiving facilities for the exported LNG.
(c) The fact that the gray shaded area (indicating the scenarios the modelers thought likely) does not extend to the Fast Builds scenario means that the modelers consider this scenario unlikely. Even if infrastructure is built on this end, other parts of the system likely won’t be in place.
(d) Hidden in the assumptions is the fact that the citizens at the receiving end of the LNG must be able to afford electricity made with high-priced natural gas and products such as fertilizer, made with high-priced natural gas. If citizens at the receiving end cut way back on their use of natural gas (by not heating their homes as much, or by doing less manufacturing using electricity, or by making less fertilizer with natural gas), export prices are likely to fall.
[8] The reason why oil prices need to be high for high LNG exports is because much of the natural gas extracted is produced at the same time as oil.
If oil prices fall too low, US production of oil from shale is likely to drop (as it did in 2020), and with it the production of natural gas. With low oil prices, US natural gas extraction is also likely to lag. In this scenario, the natural gas necessary to support the hoped-for rise in natural gas exports won’t be available.
With both high oil prices and high US natural gas prices, consumers in the EU and elsewhere will have an especially difficult time affording the high cost of imported natural gas from the US. The problem is that if natural gas costs are already high before all of the cost of processing it to make LNG and shipping it long distance are incorporated, its cost will be doubly high for buyers in the EU (and elsewhere). Furthermore, the budgets of EU consumers will already be stretched by high oil prices, making high-cost LNG even more unaffordable.
[9] People believe that fossil fuels can rise arbitrarily high, but this is not true. Unaffordably high prices are the limiting factor for LNG exports.
Farmers are particularly strongly impacted by high oil and natural gas prices. High oil prices tend to make the cost of the diesel used to run farm equipment very high. High natural gas prices tend to make ammonia fertilizer very expensive. If both oil and natural gas prices are very high, the combination will tend to lead to very high-cost food. Citizens generally get very unhappy about very high-cost food. Farmers tend to protest, as farmers in Europe have done recently, because it becomes impossible for them to pass their high costs on to consumers.
There are clearly many other parts of the economy affected by high oil and natural gas prices. With high natural gas prices, electricity prices tend to be high. Families find their budgets stretched because of the high cost of both home heating and transportation. Food costs are likely to be high also. Economies tend to be pushed into recession by high oil and natural gas prices.
[10] A wise approach would be to go slowly in building LNG export capacity.
If excess LNG export capacity is built, those building the liquefaction plants will find the return on their investment very low.
In a self-organizing system, new technology is usually slowly adopted. Investors see a niche that appears to be profitable and build a little at a time. They wouldn’t try to put a huge amount of LNG export capacity in place without making certain that a little bit works. This same approach is used by manufacturers trying any new technology; they start on a small scale and then gradually scale up the process.
The US has already approved a very substantial amount of future LNG liquefaction capacity. It seems to me that there is a need to pause the acceptance of new applications for a while to see whether the many LNG facilities in the queue can actually be built and can sell the LNG they produce profitably. Perhaps profitable new LNG plants can only be built if firm long-term contracts at quite high prices can be signed.
Going slowly would seem to be an appropriate approach for now.
Think I’ll move to a Island away from all the craziness and be safe and secure
The island is facing months or possibly years of critical water scarcity, experts say.
Euronews
Tenerife is planning to declare a water emergency on Friday as reservoirs run low due to ongoing drought.
Some areas of Spain and the Canary Islands are experiencing major drought. President of the Tenerife government Rosa Dávila says it has been one of the “driest winters in recent history” for the island.
Tenerife is set to call the water emergency on Friday following a plenary session. Dávila is confident the initiative will have unanimous support from all political parties as “the people of Tenerife do not see ideological differences in this.”
Despite being one of the greener Canary Islands, Tenerife has suffered a critical lack of rain in what should be its wetter winter months – especially in northern areas.
In recent years, rainfall has also decreased by between 15 and 40 per cent. Water evaporation has increased by between 10 and 25 per cent in the island’s agricultural midlands due to higher temperatures.
This January recorded average temperatures of 20.9C making it the hottest on the island for 60 years.
Vice President Lope Afonso also warned that the drought would have “serious consequences for the agricultural sector.”
Tenerife is looking at ways to combat water scarcity including increasing the capacity of water treatment and desalination plants to boost the supply for agriculture and homes.
The island has no rivers and very few dams so it depends on underground sources for 80 per cent of its supply.
Other areas of Spain are also struggling with water shortages. Authorities in Catalonia declared a drought emergency in Barcelona on 1 February.
This doesn’t even take into account their economic situation. Europe is in a crisis but no one can see it yet
Tenerife’s economy is tourism and pensioners. So long as the pensions keep coming and ships with food also keep coming they will be fine.
SAm, economics is secondary to exogenous energy, life itself is secondary to the environment. If it gets too bad, entire populations move, the old remain in place; politicians lose their base and must find a new one. Extreme example, Egypt and a fellow named Moses, he and his tribe moved on after leaving some lovely architecture behind.
Come from a Masonic family, someday would like to reconcile the two obvious tribes.
Dennis L.
Actually starship will be easier than reconciling the two incompatible tribes since starships do not need to deal with humans
Meanwhile, the Sahel in Africa appears to have recovered from the droughts of the 1970s/80s, it’s becoming greener: https://www.sciencenews.org/article/africa-great-green-wall-trees-sahel-climate-change
Interesting!
Traditional agricultural techniques allow land to “rest” by rotating crops each season and alternating areas where livestock graze. Now, with many areas in the world struggling with overpopulation and a shortage of farmland, there is often not enough arable land to support sustainable practices. Over-farming and overgrazing can lead to soil being compacted and unable to hold water. As the soil becomes drier, it is vulnerable to erosion. This process can lead to fertile land becoming desert-like, a process known as desertification. The desertification of the Sahel in North Africa is partly blamed on a prolonged drought whose effects were intensified by farming practices that result in overgrazing.https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/understanding-droughts/
Understanding Droughts National Geographic
Little more complicated than over
I agree that overpopulation is a big issue.
Traditional agricultural techniques allow land to “rest” by rotating crops each season and alternating areas where livestock graze.
And it doesn’t work. Farming doesn’t work.
It is not a bad guess that we have climate change; good guess is it is secondary to mass industrialization. We moved much pollution to China, including rare earth processing, but we did not move it off earth, our very precious spaceship.
Selling misery, etc. is possible, some find solace in asceticism but perhaps it is not consistent with biology, thinking of celibate monks.
Many here scoff at me, but Starship launches again in March, soon now; permits have been filed for nine launches this year.
The universe has shown us a window, we have moved a small amount of energy production to space and returned it to earth in the form of information.
Optimus is hopefully coming along, move manufacturing to space, get the pollution off our spaceship earth. It is very good at self regulation, the universe wants us here and now there are hints the universe is not 13B years old, but more like 26B. There was and is a lot of work into making a place for biology; we will make it, we will change.
Sorry about your problems, hope they are manageable.
Dennis L.
the sahara is moving north
just as we have been warned for years—but of course its just a hoax by them damned elders so they can have the planet to themselves
So, the Sahara’s moving north?
What good news that must be for the millions of people who live in the Sahel—From Eritrea in the east to Senegal in the west, and in exotic places like Khartoum and Timbuktu—they’ll have more rain, which will make like that much more survivable.
It will be just like old times!
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:
The Sahara was not a desert during the African humid period. Instead, most of northern Africa was covered by grass, trees, and lakes.
The African humid period (AHP; also known by other names) is a climate period in Africa during the late Pleistocene and Holocene geologic epochs, when northern Africa was wetter than today. The covering of much of the Sahara desert by grasses, trees and lakes was caused by changes in the Earth’s axial tilt; changes in vegetation and dust in the Sahara which strengthened the African monsoon; and increased greenhouse gases. During the preceding Last Glacial Maximum, the Sahara contained extensive dune fields and was mostly uninhabited. It was much larger than today, and its lakes and rivers such as Lake Victoria and the White Nile were either dry or at low levels. The humid period began about 14,600–14,500 years ago at the end of Heinrich event 1, simultaneously to the Bølling–Allerød warming. Rivers and lakes such as Lake Chad formed or expanded, glaciers grew on Mount Kilimanjaro and the Sahara retreated. Two major dry fluctuations occurred; during the Younger Dryas and the short 8.2 kiloyear event. The African humid period ended 6,000–5,000 years ago during the Piora Oscillation cold period. While some evidence points to an end 5,500 years ago, in the Sahel, Arabia and East Africa, the end of the period appears to have taken place in several steps, such as the 4.2-kiloyear event.
The AHP led to a widespread settlement of the Sahara and the Arabian Deserts, and had a profound effect on African cultures, such as the birth of the Ancient Egyptian civilization. People in the Sahara lived as hunter-gatherers and domesticated cattle, goats and sheep. They left archaeological sites and artifacts such as one of the oldest ships in the world, and rock paintings such as those in the Cave of Swimmers and in the Acacus Mountains. Earlier humid periods in Africa were postulated after the discovery of these rock paintings in now-inhospitable parts of the Sahara. When the period ended, humans gradually abandoned the desert in favour of regions with more secure water supplies, such as the Nile Valley and Mesopotamia, where they gave rise to early complex societies.
i already knew that cut n paste segment Tim
Im not talking about 8 k’year time, but 100 year or so timescale
Very well, Norman. But how about a mega-drought in sub-Saharan Africa that went on for over 300 years and only ended about 270 years ago? Would that interest you?
According to the New York Times, one of your trusted sources:
For at least 3,000 years, a drumbeat of potent droughts, far longer and more severe than any experienced recently, have seared a belt of sub-Saharan Africa that is now home to tens of millions of the world’s poorest people, climate researchers report in a new study.
The last such drought, persisting more than three centuries, ended around 1750, the research team writes in the April 17 issue of the journal Science.
https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/2009/04/17/science/earth/17drought.html
droughts obviously come in phases
the egyptian peoples almost certainly originated in the sahara 12k years ago, then migrated to the nile when living conditions worsened.
that has gone on for 00000s of years.
pretty much every year now is hotter than the last one.
pretty much every year now is hotter than the last one.
That’s what happens when your weather stations are nearly all located next to airport runways or in urban heat islands.
The figures are garbage and it’s all adjusted with ‘models’ anyway. We all know why so much hysteria about it is promoted.
the sahara is moving north/i>
It has been for thousands of years, helped by grazing and deforestation. Nothi9ing to do with alleged ‘climate change’.
Intuitive Machines’ Odysseus lander has beamed home a few more photos of its pioneering journey to the moon.
Odysseus touched down about 190 miles (300 kilometers) from the moon’s south pole on Thursday (Feb. 22), becoming the first private spacecraft ever to land softly on Earth’s nearest neighbor — and the first American vehicle to do since since the final Apollo mission in 1972.
We just got a few new looks at Odysseus’ epic descent, thanks to three photos that Intuitive Machines posted on X today (Feb. 27).
Australian state orders 30,000 people to evacuate due to ‘catastrophic’ fire risk
Kathleen Magramo
By Kathleen Magramo and Morayo Ogunbayo, CNN
Firefighters in Australia are battling a huge blaze that has forced the evacuation of tens of thousands of people amid some of the worst fire conditions the country has seen in recent years.
Hot, dry and windy conditions have created “extreme to catastrophic fire dangers” in parts of Victoria and South Australia, according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology.
Severe thunderstorms are also forecast in the region, which bring the threat of dry lightning – strikes that occur during a storm where the rain evaporates before hitting the ground.
We miss you so much Fast Eddie….I’m even thinking about getting a safe and effective booster jab😜
Fire is part of the natural cycle of some/many ecosystems. In Australia, there are trees that cannot reproduce without fire occurring. We have chosen to build near these ecosystems. We have no one but ourselves to blame.
Of course, can’t wait for Eddie to report on them himself
There is no way out for Europe . 9min read .
https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/there-is-no-way-out-for-europe-29183618dba3
Very good write up on short term actions that will end in long term suffering for the people..of course, in any case…the outcomes will be most likely the same
At the beginning he says:
” What we are witnessing today is but a beginning to a long political, economical and technological struggle lasting (probably many) decades into the future. The economic superorganism encircling the planet is doing everything to keep itself alive for a little longer while being starved of energy.”
I agree with the second sentence, but I am not so certain about the first one.
Europe looks likely to head downward quickly, but some remnants will probably remain for a long time.
Haven’t spent much time there. Aegan sea has some wonderful parts, Split in Croatia comes to mind, Diocletian chose well. Lisbon is beautiful, easy to walk. Sometimes life itself is a wonderful experience.
I am an American, I shall remain an American; but hard to beat the climate in parts of Europe, MN is cold today, grass is white.
Dennis L.
Poor old Diocletian….in theory his succession method should have resulted in a smooth transition of Imperial rule..in the end just a mess of competing egomaniacs..He’ll bent on rubbing each other out…
Died looking at his cabbages, trying to help his daughter, Imperial Princess Galeria, out of a confining captive held by a former underling Caesar
Maximize Daza….she was put to death in the end.
Even his Conference at Cartunum failed to bring order,
Oh well, just goes to show, what can go wrong, will go wrong
Yup, but the palace is beautiful and the open market in the square is wonderful.
Dennis L.
The EU has the way out . 😂😂
” Curiously, the European Union has defined its growth pillars. If we do not have fossils (oil and gas) as a possible business, we will use the energy transition, the arms industry and investment in AI to do big business “
100 years ago T. S> Eliot, who tried to ape being a British despite of the inconvenient fact that he was born in Missouri, said
This is the Way the World Ends
not with a bang, but with a whimper
And it is possible that that is how BAU ends
https://beneaththepavement.substack.com/p/it-all-ends-in-a-boring-dystopia
No general collapse, but things breaking down here and there just like a diabetic losing nerves in the extremities.
So maybe David of many names might be correct. We might have BAU in 2030 or even 2040, which would be enough to get to a Type I Civ, while the peripheries fall back into primitivism.
Nothing will really get done since the world would be in an autopilot mode, as the USA has been since in 2021 (Biden and his cohort really do not do anything – the old bureaucracy, sometimes called the “Deep State”, silently do all the work, but in maintenance mode and making no hard decisions, just like the Chinese eunuchs who did all the real administrative work in the Empire when an Emperor didn’t feel like running the country) and more people will get frustrated but nothing will change since no one wants to rock the boat.
Wealth will be concentrated to the top even further, with nothing for the rest, and eventually the lower and then lower middle class fall off but life won’t change in the top 10% of the advanced countries.
100 years ago T. S> Eliot, who tried to ape being a British despite of the inconvenient fact that he was born in Missouri
He obviously identified as British before he got here. It’s great we helped him be all he could be.
Somebody living in a third world shantytown can pretend he is an American, only watching American shows and not even choosing to speak his original language
That does not make him an American.
This would get you fired in american academia. I wonder anyway what an “american” is. Kanye West? Henry Ford? whatshername competing with trump in the primaries?
Erik Prince : Africa and Latin America should be recolonized
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycKv0o7WkYk
He is about 80 years too late.
Colonialism is justifiable in an utilitarian way since it concentrates resources to the center of Civilization and leaving not much for the colonies. Civilization exploded much faster when colonialism exploded the available resources in the zones relevant for civilization.
It was a big mistake to grand independence to 2/3 of the world’s pop. A huge fup.
Nobody except you wants to be a robot in space.
I’m not sure I’d mind. Might even prefer it.
What joy could there be in being a machine
Mr Spaceship, 1953 Philip K Dick
An retired professor is given the opportunity to upload his mind into an experimental spaceship. He likes it.
Kul,
Not sure, but think one of the ruling class of Nigeria recently commented the French should come back and run the place.
Dennis L.
Except Nigeria was a British colony and never ruled by France
My error, perhaps it was Niger not Nigeria, don’t catalogue that sort of thing very well. A revolution here, a revolution there.
Dennis L.
They should contract out running the country to an ASI.
Dennis L. recently mentioned Wagner’s “Flight of the Valkyries”. I was puzzled but checked. It is indeed actually “Ride of the Valkyries”, as I’d thought. I realise now what Dennis confused it with.
Yuja Wang plays the Flight of the Bumble-Bee by Rimsky-Korsakov.
Would like her to have my kids 🙂 They’d be solving unified field theory at age 5.
Wise man.
Dennis L.
Asian musicians, frankly speaking, should not be touching music not intended for them to play.
They are little better than machines.
The only thing the Asians do well is rote memorization, including playing piano.
Yo-Yo Mah.
Dennis L.
Fake star made to sell classic music to China. Little known fact – he was born at Paris , was mostly raised in USA and did not visit China until he became famous
Again, you chase celebrities, while I am not really impressed by them.
kul,
I don’t chase celebrities, but I deeply respect their talent.
Once sat on stage with Rudolph Serkin, have mentioned that. I was not worthy to dust his piano, but if I looked up, there he was. Did not follow him, he graciously was traveling somewhere close and granted a performance with our orchestra, rare honor.
Talent is wonderful, it is an ability to communicate with the universe, if you are a musician, you can sit at this keyboard and hear a perfect A. don’t have a clue where it comes from. It can’t be taught, my daughter was tone deaf.
Dennis L.
Thank you for spotting that. My Wagner is rusty.
Dennis L.
Who could forget
Now, if we’re allowed to enjoy Russian’s playing Russian music, let’s listen to the same tune by Evgeny Kissin.
Amazing!
does anyone know of a non-woke search engine? after the kerfuffle about google’s latest AbomInation, i image searched for “black couple” and “white couple” on google, yandex, ddg and presearch; all give accurate results for the black couple, none give accurate results for the white couple. sad that even yandex has succumbed to shitification.
well, when the war started Yandex wanted to relocate its headquarters to Tel Aviv. Their kids aim to go to Harvard. No surprise whatsoever.
A lot of the privatization-enriched oligarchs were Jewish, or at least that’s how it seemed to me when I was reading through a book about Russia since the USSR’s dissolution. Do you think that’s true? Do Jews also account for a disproportionate number of the successful entities that made it the old fashioned way (hard work and skill) as well (eg. Yandex, not sure about VKontakte or military tech)?
Of course. Putin is doing a delicate balancing act, but they are overrepresented in media, finance, oligarchy, etc. To Putin’s credit, he killed or exiled the worst ones. Certainly since the SMO began some oligarchs left, the leftover oligarchs lost a lot of power, and the new self-made oligarchs tend to be self-made, genuinely productive, and in percentage less chews.
And has anyone noticed that the 300B$ sequestered by the West were all oligarch’s money? No regular citizen lost anything (yes, there are also some refineries belonging to rosneft).
But I don’t think it can work past Putin, and we have always the possibility of having 1M+ Israeli move back to Russia once they have to fight the regional nations on equal footing. Part of the reason of the success of Russia is that the chews are largely gone. Putin has some interesting ideas (which I appreciate) on how to keep power in the hands of the people. I will write about them when I have time.
In Tucker Carlson interview to Putin there is an interesting part in which Putin explains the ‘invention’ of Ukraine as a nation and the ‘creation’ of an Ukranian nationality thanks to a great contribution from Bolsceviks’ actions.
Because he explained that inside what we consider currently as Ukraine territory, there are in reality various ethnic groups with different origins of languages and cultures (among them Hungarians and Russians for example).
I found interesting that he paradoxically said that for ‘inexplicable reasons Bolscevicks started that process’…
And he talked about Bolscevicks as a some sort of external entity.
At least I had that impression.
As it is impossible that Putin doesn’t know the reason, I think that it is a reason he didn’t want to explain.
And then I reminded what you, drb, said about the objective of a plan b in Ukraine… and also what is often said about Bolscevicks…
I am convinced Putin is telling the truth on that. Lenin split republics the way you described, Trotzky butchered a bunch of people, and Stalin developed the economy and is forever dearly remembered by the Russian lower classes. Not clear if he would have been able to redress the wrongs described by Putin. He died relatively young, possibly at the hands of those who felt betrayed by him.
My understanding is that the 300 billion was government-owned forex reserves and something like 20 billion (IIRC) was private individuals in addition to that.
Everyone wants to become elites, including those who founded Yandex.
I asked a question about J((e ws) in Russia and it didn’t go through. A sensitive word, I guess. (Aside, how ridiculous is it that in 2024 you can’t communicate as you would like without being intermediated and silenced?), I will ask again, paraphrasing:
I read a book about the dissolution of the USSR and time since then and it struck me that a lot of the individuals who benefited from privatization were of that demographic. Do you think the same holds true for leading Russian companies that have emerged since then the old fashioned way (hard work, i.e. without privatization)? I am trying to discern whether there is some cultural or other difference that explains overrepresentation. I am also aware of intelligence studies, but not focused on that here.
Watched the “Pawn Broker” a few nights ago.
Jesus Ortiz asked that Sol Nazerman question at around 1:06 . Copilot says Sol dismisses the question s stereotypic, Sol answers the question directly. He describes tearing a piece of cloth in two and selling both parts for a penny more than the purchase price, etc. He mentions not being allowed to own land.
Intelligence and money are correlated. Working memory allows one to recall facts, facts allow one to follow a narrative.
Dennis L.
And the good women you talk about in your imagination tend to be less attractive and these rich assholes marry beauties whose progeny inherit their mothers’ intellect. They are good at snatching rich men and not good for much else
They are good at snatching rich men and not good for much else
What else would they need to be good at
A couple of middle oligarchs I know (net worth between 0.5 and 2B dollars) are respectively russian and orthodox russian. I do think that given enough time overrepresentation of them will decline. In part this is due to the economy producing real things, tractors, airplanes, milk and grains. Once you get into serious manufacturing and agriculture they disappear, same as in the West (perhaps I should not say that too loud. Ferrari and FIAT succeeded in Italy because they were chew owned. All the other car factories were eventually absorbed)
Duck Duck Go … Brave?
HTH
https://duckduckgo.com/?va=c&t=hm&q=white+couple&iax=images&ia=images
Long story short. There is one white couple in the first 37 images and that is some debauched musician and current squeeze. CEO of DDG is named Weinstein.
Try searching for “caucasian couple.”
DDG results are mostly “white on white.”
Google results are mostly “white on asian.”
AI is an example of GIGO [ Garbage in Garbage out }
https://indi.ca/the-ouroboros-of-big-data/
Agreed! One step worse that Wikipedia for finding the truth about anything.
It’s complete crap as a poster’s fact checking of some of the Copilot info revealed
The Story of Late Capitalism as Told Through Panera Bread
“Perhaps the last relic of the GVC aesthetic and ethos at Panera is its logo: a woman cradling a loaf of sourdough, a final gesture at artisan pretentions. At some point, the company stopped making its dough in-store, and sourced pre-bake mixes that could be distributed to several locations and heated up, bowing to the gospel of “quality control” and efficiency. As the company has expanded, the stores have become increasingly homogenous, resembling the fast-food chains Bread Company began as a reaction against. What was once good became merely decent—and then, for anyone who has recently tasted one of their simultaneously dry and soggy tuna sandwiches, it just became sad.
https://www.thenation.com/article/economy/panera-bread-capitalism/
With the late Queen and Prince Philip now lying together in St. George’s Chapel within the walls of Windsor Castle, King Charles and the former Princess Sarah both suffering from cancer, and Princess Kate set for an extended convalescence following an undisclosed medical problem requiring abdominal surgery, the ranks of Britain’s working Royals are currently severely depleted.
Is it time to bring back the “black sheep” Andrew, Harry and Megan into the fold—even if merely on a gig basis? Or would that damage the brand?
None of their current health issues have anything to do with the jabs, it goes without saying. And lots of people did warn them of the folly of relying on homeopathy as frontline treatments all these years.
But still, the nagging feeling persists, in my mind at least, that their current plague of illness might be a manifestation of the well known dynamic of Nemesis following in the wake of Hubris; their Hubris in this being to give out medical advice to the public without a medical license, and not just medical advice, but pernicious medical advice too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4hiCKC5gZE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7l1fRs-IwRs
I sincerely hope that the King, Kate, and Sarah all recover from their various illnesses, and that Andrew, Harry and Megan find peace and contentment. Growing up in public with the paparazzi always ready to pounce from the hedgerows has been a curse far more than a benefit to the entire clan. I have never been an avid watcher of The Windsors—which as time goes by has become more and more an upper class version of Coronation Street—but initiated as I was into postwar British society, it is impossible for me to ignore them completely.
In particular, what is the thing with Kate? That is a tremendously long hospital stay for most any surgery!
turbo cancer would be a reasonable speculation.
Royal Flush!
Nothing pins your status as expendable when you do not get saline. I bet hoi polloi like Draghi, Annalena, Ursula, they all got saline.
Meghan Markle rushed to hospital after medical emergency
https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/1145069-meghan-markle-rushed-to-hospital-after-medical-emergency
Sure, aint the jab?
King of Norway rushed to hospital with infection during holiday in Malaysia
https://www.gbnews.com/royal/king-of-norway-rushed-to-hospital-malaysia-holiday-2667375651
Boy they sure are ugly from all that imbreading.
You’ll enjoy this. Homeopathic A and E
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMGIbOGu8q0
(I’m sharing because it’s very humorous. I’m not disparaging homeopathy. I have found German Biological Medicine based on Enderlein’s work to be extremely useful.)
Or maybe it is time to do away with the outdated royal institution?
It might be time to do away with the Windsors, and restore the Hanoverians. I believe David Cameron is a descendant of William IV.
One fellow reacted to that by saying the Royals are a profit center bringing in tourists and from their brand selling $$$
of related products…just like a professional sports team.
One owner of a American football team is astonished on how much his teams value is in the billions.
Perhaps the Royals can do the same with a soccer teamWin, win
I suggest people read the book ‘And What Do You Do?’ by Norman Baker ex-MP. A good analysis of how useless and greedy most of the royals are.
The Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark and Norway also have to put up with constitutional monarchies and seem to have managed to clip their wings somewhat. It was quite amusing when the Queen of Denmark told some of her own relatives to go and get a proper job
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/29/denmarks-queen-margrethe-strips-four-grandchildren-of-royal-titles
Google search “US debt interest payments” yields: “The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that interest payments will total $870 billion in fiscal year 2024 and rise rapidly throughout the next decade — climbing from $951 billion in 2025 to $1.6 trillion in 2034. In total, net interest payments will total $12.4 trillion over the next decade. Feb 9, 2024”
Is this a “death spiral”?
When all of this money goes for interest, it cannot go for other things. It won’t be just the government facing this problem–it will be other citizens as well.
The economy can be pushed along by a rapidly rising supply of inexpensive fossil fuels, like it was in the 1950s and 1960s. But those days are gone. In recent years, they have been pushed along by ever-more debt. Now, the ever-more debt will need to cover growing interest payments as well. It is hard to see how it will work.
“Is this a “death spiral”?”
yes!
of course it is!
what is the projected debt in 2034?
surely more than $50T.
and perhaps heading for $100T by 2040, maybe $200T by 2050.
those who live long enough will see if this death spiral lasts for only multiple years, or for multiple decades.
You joke about, I want to see your face when you go to the supermarket and all the dark chocolate is gone. were it not for chucky, we would have dark chocolate from space forever.
it’s the day that asparagus disappears from the oort cloud that i fear.
it’s true that the fear really is not ever more expensive dark chocolate in stores, but no dark chocolate in stores.
right now there still is a multitude of brands, seemingly unhindered by the $34T national debt.
All is well in your neck of the woods then. If you ever come visit let me know, there is excellent chocolate here too.
Ulysses tripped over and the lunar prove show will be cancelled sooner than expected
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/02/27/odysseus-moon-lander-tipped-over-lose-power/72755810007/
Guess nothing could hide the human civilzation’s regress.
“Flight controllers intend to collect data until the lander’s solar panels are no longer exposed to light. Based on Earth and Moon positioning, we believe flight controllers will continue to communicate with Odysseus until Tuesday morning.”
Larger landing pads, lower center of gravity. It has been done without tipping over, it can be done.
Next problem please.
Dennis L.
Wouldya, couldya, shouldya.
You would be the Emperor of the World in your fantasy. In reality you are just some ordinary person chasing pipe dreams.
‘Notebooks: The Journal for Studies on Power
Editors-in-Chief: Francesca Congiu and Margherita Sabrina Perra
Notebooks: The Journal for Studies on Power is an academic, peer-reviewed, multi-disciplinary publication intended to serve as a dialogue-generating conduit for research on power. Power is a complex phenomenon and can be defined in multiple ways. For the purposes of this journal, power implies submission either by consent or by coercion. This means that, apart from being exercised through violence, power can be exercised through hegemony produced by “common sense”. However, power still implies exploitation. Exploitation, via the exercise of hegemonic power, occurs in many domains: global politics, institutional administration, the state, legal systems, social dynamics, family, the workplace, education, economic mechanisms and socioeconomic relations, language, media, communications, and more.
Notebooks is interested in why and how power is exercised, preserved, and contested. The journal documents processes whereby certain ideas and types of knowledge achieve dominance and are variously expressed via not only coercion but also consent. ‘
https://brill.com/view/journals/powr/powr-overview.xml
I am afraid that Notebooks still is an academic journal, by and for other academics, on very narrow subjects. It is open access. Authors aren’t told what the fees will be (that I could figure out) until after the articles pass peer review.
Wow.
> Watch | U.S. Soldier’s Last Message Ahead Of Self-Immolation Outside Israeli Embassy In Washington
U.S. Air Force member dies after setting himself up on fire in protest of the war in Gaza. Aaron Bushnell self-immolated in front of the Israeli embassy in Washington on February 25. He was reportedly on fire for nearly a minute before local authorities extinguished the flames. Watch the full video to know more.
“I will no longer be complicit in genocide.”
Good principled young man, but you can not stop genocide on moral grounds. Thermodynamic principles imply there will be genocides one way or another.
For one man like him, there are ten zombies who will follow orders to the end.
He’ll regret when he has to live with the injuries. You gonna copy him, Lucy?
He reportedly died of those injuries
If he lived he would have faced a court martial
And extensive skin-grafting.
Aaron is the name of the brother of Moses. He may have received that name for some kind of religious background of his family, maybe Christian, maybe even Jewish.
The meaning seems to be from old egyptian words: ‘war lion’.
On Israeli media is described in detached way.
He made a stong action.
Jewish people in Israel have not probably yet understood the disgrace they have ensured on themselves for long years ahead for what they are doing.
A disgrace and shame that will unfortunately obscure the tragedy of the holocaust.
They have probably not understood that they have put themselves in troubles even in Europe where they had reached respect and love during these last decades.
What a terrible tragedy this war have become.
If Ukraine war may have geopolitical consequences for the future and peoples of Ukraine will be absorbed in respective proveniences (Hungarian, Romanian, Russian, Polish etc.) and also Ukraine State will be dissolved maybe without too many consequences, on the contrary, Gaza war will have consequences specifically on peoples around the world, for decades ahead.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aaron_(given_name)
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-788811
https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-airman-dies-after-setting-himself-on-fire-outside-israeli-embassy-in-washington/
Mirror, his death was such a waste.
Imagine what he could have done if he’d kept working within the ranks until he was in the pilot seat of a nuclear-armed bomber?
His death can be seen as a waste and also as a message.
Jesus decided to be martyred although he had plenty of possibility to avoid it, in order to give a message.
Whether we like that message or not, and I personally like it.
Many ‘zombies’ (like above descripted) decided to follow his message and that modified many things.
In my view, for this reason, one should also consider the implications of his action, instead of only analyzing 1+1=2
Having said that, of course, Aaron’s death is a terrible tragedy.
I’m not convinced this particular death really happened. It might have been faked in some way.
I’m old enough to remember this.
https://faroutmagazine.co.uk/static/uploads/1/2019/05/‘Wish-You-Were-Here’-–-Pink-Floyd-cover-meaning.jpg
Yes, it could also be like that.
If it is fake, it is probably a message from the US Army to the Israel Army.
One could also find a message: Aaron (US), who is the brother of Moses (Israel), send a warning to his brother.
“Americans are overwhelmingly for ceasefire by 4 to 1, and Democrats by more than 7 to 1. The reason Biden can’t lift a finger in the face of genocide is that he is afraid of alienating the Israel lobby as a force for his reelection. It’s that simple.”
The influence of the ‘Zionist’ lobby (donors of both parties) in USA is a complete disaster for the USA’s ability to act in its own geopolitical interests, and even for the ‘Democratic Party’ to act in its own electoral interests, when both are of vital and urgent concern to USA, Europe and elsewhere.
The genocide in Gaza is alienating basically the entire rest of the world – at a time when USA hegemony is under severe strain and it is even looking to withdraw from Europe to focus on the rise of China – and for no strategic benefit from ‘Israel’.
At the same time, Trump is headed for the biggest GOP victory in decades while Biden hopelessly allows his support for the genocide in Gaza to undermine his support in key demographics with Trump now ahead among the under-35s and Biden’s support collapsed among Hispanics.
https://mondoweiss.net/2024/02/weekly-briefing-why-any-decent-person-supports-a-ceasefire-but-not-biden/
Weekly Briefing: Why any decent person supports a ceasefire, but not Biden
If you want to understand Biden’s problem – blindly supporting Israel as it conducts what any decent person sees is a grisly slaughter of a civilian population, now at least 28,985 Palestinians – you have to look at the latest polling data, spotlighted at our site by Michael Arria this week.
American support for ceasefire is overwhelming: four to one, 63 to 16. Even Republicans support it by a crushing 54 to 34. As for Democrats – Biden’s base – it isn’t even close, 78 to 11.
One group lags. Jews are for a ceasefire but by a far lesser number than any other group in this poll (conducted by a Muslim organization): 50 to 34.
And Biden has to care about Jews in the upcoming election. Because Jews are typically reliable Democrats in the swing states of Pennsylvania, Florida, and Michigan. But also because Jews make up a large part of the Democratic donor class — the political “elephant in the room,” according to the New York Times — and Biden cannot do anything to upset that community now.
The Israel lobby is a manifestation of the organized Jewish community. Obviously not all Jews are Zionists – any more than all evangelicals oppose abortion rights – and a third of Jews support a ceasefire — but the leading community groups are supporting Israel now, whatever it does, and opposing ceasefire.
In fact, ever since the war began in October, Israel supporters with financial clout have been threatening establishment institutions to stay in line with the support of Israel.
Examples: …
But maybe political donors, who may be disproportionately from the top 0.1% (I am not sure), think differently. Politicians go where the money seems to be.
Interesting distribution you mention.
Dennis L.
Indeed. Only the donor class does matter.
‘ Survivor Lloyd Painter reported that as preparations were being made to abandon ship, he witnessed “the machinegunning of life-rafts as they floated by, the Israeli torpedo boat crew members raked the life rafts thoroughly with machine gun fire, making sure that if there had been anyone in the life rafts, they would not have survived.” This was a clear violation of the Geneva conventions.’
https://off-guardian.org/2024/02/25/uss-liberty-tragic-blunder-or-mass-murder/
Required reading….
Pretty awful!
A kind of ‘final solution’.
In my view, in general, stupid people are only able of making ‘double down’ on their decisions instead of re-thinking their failing strategies…
(RTN.ch) “L’envoi de troupes occidentales ne peut « être exclu », dit Macron”
https://www.rtn.ch/rtn/Actualite/Monde/20240227-L-envoi-de-troupes-occidentales-ne-peut-etre-exclu-dit-Macron.html
Google Translate says (regarding Ukraine):
Sending Western troops “cannot be ruled out”, says Macron
I wish Macron “good luck.” Without fossil fuels to speak of, where are European countries going to get many more weapons? And the US cannot be counted on to help, at least not by very much.
Maybe he thinks to go to war against Russia with electric tanks.
I hope French people will stop him, otherwise we Europeans will be in troubles.
If the EU and Russia nuke each other will that be good or bad for US? For China ( free Siberian FF for China)?
Ed, EU can only be defeated by Russia, in thousands different ways.
That is why I call him ” Macron , the midget ” . All air , no punch or as in Texas ” All hat , no cattle ” . Loudmouth .
“It’s quite remarkable how virtually every single item we wrote about in the last report has either come to pass or is slowly being proven accurate. The stampede of the Russian forces continues, with more territory falling today, which serves as the catalyst for some of the ongoing panicked escalations the report will focus on.”?
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-22724-desperate-globalists?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1351274&post_id=142086253&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=nm2q&open=false&utm_medium=email
Now we know….
Japan Moon lander survives lunar night
By Greg Brosnan BBC News Climate and Science 26 February 2024.
Japan’s Moon lander has survived the harsh lunar night, the sunless and freezing equivalent to two Earth weeks.
“Last night, a command was sent to #SLIM and a response received,” national space agency Jaxa said on X.
The craft was put into sleep mode after an awkward landing in January left its solar panels facing the wrong way and unable to generate power.
A change in sunlight direction later allowed it to send pictures back but it shut down again as lunar night fell.
Jaxa said at the time that Slim (Smart Lander for Investigating Moon) was not designed for the harsh lunar nights.
It said it planned to try to operate again from mid-February, when the Sun would shine again on Slim’s solar cells.
“The news that SLIM has rebooted itself after the cold lunar night is significant,” said Dr Simeon Barber from the UK’s Open University.
“Surviving lunar night is one of the key technological challenges to be overcome if we are to establish long-lived robotic or human missions on the Moon.”
Dr Barber explained that Slim landed near the Moon’s equator, where the lunar surface reaches more than 100C at noon, but then plunges to -130C during the lunar night.
Jaxa said that communication with the lander was terminated after a short time – it was lunar midday, meaning the temperature of the communications equipment was very high.
But it posted the following picture on X, which it said was taken from the lander while it was back in action.
See, WE KNOW that THEY KNOW what they are dealing with and built it so.
Based on the result so far, it looks like the US is still a long ways away from sending a man to the moon.
Like before, perhaps they should attempt first a primate astronaut. Most are self guided and the monkey would probably less trouble and do a better job at the task on hand.
I would suggest a dog, but we people love our fur babies
I nominate the Archbishop of Canterbury.
His alternate title is “the primate of All England.”
This topic is trending in the climate change world . I am posting this because in Belgium the winter sowing and cropping has been screwed up because of because of untimely and incessant rains . The farmers are really pissed off and in a bad move .
https://medium.com/the-environment/atlantic-ocean-circulation-in-tipping-course-climate-chaos-approaching-faster-than-expected-5066e6923ecb
Atlantic Ocean Circulation in ‘Tipping Course’ — Climate Chaos Approaching Faster Than Expected
“The Day After Tomorrow” could go from dystopian movie to reality sooner than we thought, study shows
But what possibly could we humans do to prevent this change?
This winter has been unusually dry where I live. It seems to average out.
Like you have pointed out many times before…ain’t going to be able to change outcomes.
Art Berman just pointed out the same…will take decades even if we tried
So it looks like the Belgian climate is now more like Western Brittany. They will have to change their practices. Yes, it will support a smaller population. Northern Italy has gone from extreme drought to extreme precipitation in the last few years. You have to adapt. Perhaps the time has come for mixed agricultural crops. It is unpleasant to eat fava rye gruel instead of a nice baguette, but you will be alive and healthier.
There’s an interesting technical reply debunking the argument due to proxy data and misinterpretations of satelllite views not accounting for refreezing meltwater; also suggests that Greenland hasnt seen increased flows to match observed melting and dire models. Not my area of expertise.
Normies see climatechange, the wise see weather modification, seed clouding.
Has anyone here looked at the sky recently, and compared it to the skies of twenty years ago? I do, and it’s revealing enough. Depressing stuff.
In short, we are toasted.
We have nothing to fear from climate change in Kyoto, but fear itself.
Accordingly, I will be planting rice on May 15 this year, as every year, and I can expect the weather will be warm enough and wet enough through July 15 for the plants to flourish and grow and then hot and sunny enough for the seeds form, ripen and mature by September 15, as every year.
I am confident of getting a fairly good harvest, although the volume of grain and its quality will depend on the vagaries of the weather. It takes about 120 days to grow rice, and on the equator in places like Bali, where it is always warm and wet, they can and do squeeze in three crops per year.
In Japan, these days, most rice paddies grow a single crop in the summer and then rest for 8 months, although in the old days, before supermarkets and food imports, many farmers grew winter wheat and summer rice in the same paddies, and used the aze—the thin strips of land between adjacent paddies—to grow beans.
Half of the world depends on rice as its staple food, and fortunately, rice production is remarkably stable most of the time. Also, as long as farmers refrain from using insecticides, the frogs, snakes, herons, ducks, dragonflies and other creatures have a great time mucking about in the warm muddy water.
I don’t know how committed the Japanese government is to what appears to be a globalist program to weaponize the weather. Probably less than the Portuguese one, which seems to be 100 percent with it, as lately there has hardly been a cloudless day in which I didn’t see the sky crossed by chemtrails.
And I’m pretty sure that there is now the capacity to cause meteorological chaos in order to destroy crops, poison the plebs and promote the climate change narrative.
All industrialized countries seem committed to this agenda, and if I had enough energy and confidence in the future to change countries, I would move to a third world place, like Angola, where this madness has not yet arrived.
In Japan, most of our weather comes from somewhere else. 🙂
And most of our food does too. So there isn’t any particularly urgent need to destroy the agricultural system.
The biggest issue for us in Japan is air pollution from China, mostly in the late winter and early spring—but that has abated somewhat in recent years as China seems to have shut down or cleaned up a lot of their dirtiest industries because the air in China itself has been close absolutely unbreathable since they joined the WTO and became the world’s biggest factory.
I suppose the Japanese leadership said to the Elders, “Who needs chemtrails when you live down wind of China?” It’s a powerful argument.
One thing I really enjoyed about the three years of the pandemic was the beautiful blue skies with strong scorching sunshine and not a single passenger jet passing overhead for weeks at a time. It is back to dozens of jets a day now, though.
“Meanwhile, despite massive government support for wind and solar, both sectors are struggling in both Europe and North America. This was not supposed to happen, according to those upbeat transition scenarios that the IEA and other advocates fed the investor world. Indeed, wind and solar capacity were supposed to grow without restraint. Yet it has emerged recently that government support is not enough to ensure this unrestrained growth on its own.”?
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/the-net-zero-stragedy?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1498475&post_id=141967510&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=nm2q&open=false&utm_medium=email
We can’t stop fossil fuels without stopping the economy. Big problem.
The price of the transition is going to be paid now or later. Why spent vast efforts to make is 100 years earlier. Just let mother nature direct the transition easy peasy.
You are right. Anything we do to change the path will make the transition earlier, not later. People will die earlier.
Copy/paste from another blog . We will hit the wall earlier with this transition acts . Better to stop .
“One of the mistakes that the designers of the energy transition have made is that at the beginning, the transition is actually an energy expansion, because an excess of energy is needed to create an entire alternative infrastructure, while the population continues to need energy for its normal growth. Undertaking this transition, when we are at peak oil, condemns us before we begin.”
” Undertaking this transition, when we are at peak oil, condemns us before we begin.”
That is a good point.
But adding a whole lot of wind and solar, before hitting peak, adds both debt and demand. It uses oil, but it disproportionately uses coal. It helps keep demand for oil up, so that production doesn’t fall as soon. Now we seem to be hitting limits on wind and solar, too.
Maybe there is some sense to adding wind and solar, before oil production starts falling (about 2018).
Kulm, is this you?
Yuval Harari is speaking your language.
I believe he is a rainbow warrior; not sure if s/he is the husband or wife. Dedicated to the cause of reducing the popn I guess.
“Now, fast forward to the early 21st century when we just don’t need the vast majority of the population because the future is about developing more and more sophisticated technology, like artificial intelligence [and] bioengineering.
https://armageddonprose.substack.com/p/world-economic-forum-futurist-we?utm_source=%2Fsearch%2Fbill%2520gates%2520sun&utm_medium=reader2
My thinking, which originates from Malthus, or even before (one of the famous Greek playwrights, I think Aristophanes, said the Trojan War broke out because of overpopulation) Is much older.
Whether you like or not, most of humanity is unneeded. Arthur Harris learned his strange philosophy of valuing the life of a fusilier, who probably did not know how to speak the King’s English and spoke with a heavy accent not betraying his origins, more than the Castle of Dresden from the Shona of Rhodesia; since the Shona is not well known for its great architecture Harris acted like a BaShona.
But such line of thought should stay in Africa.
Human life is not that sacred or important. There are things which are much more precious than the lives of barely literate two legged animals.
Much more precious? Like love, beauty, truth, art, honour (with an “h”), nature, wealth, ownership, heritage, bloodlines, trust, faith, stuff they only sell at Harrods and Fortnum & Mason, and of course, Type I civilization.
(one of the famous Greek playwrights, I think Aristophanes, said the Trojan War broke out because of overpopulation) Is much older.
Land fertility collapse after centuries of peace, prosperity and rising population in the Bronze Age Mediterranean.
We are past the point where increased efficiency goes back to the workers. It goes back to the owners of the systems. It is only the owners who benefit. This is related to the post yesterday, saying that Jevons’ Paradox only is applicable in the growth phase of the economy.
It does come down to what one values. Is it utility for the owning class or is it G_d and humankind made in G_d’s image and sacred?
The owning class.
Maybe after the election, they will have finally run out of runway.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-spreads-soar-physical-market-screams-tightness-while-hedge-fund-press-shorts
oh deary me, I might have to pay a little more for oil products in 2025.
ps: now $80 oil; in the 2011-2014 price plateau, oil was about $120-140 in inflation adjusted (2024) dollars.
looking at it that way, oil below $100 is cheap.
Was oil price in 2011-2014 high before shale oil could fully decompress higher price of legacy oil? When shale supply starts tightening in a few years ( and its drop of will be more pronounced than longer lasting legacy wells) then we will pick back up with $120-140 oil. Which way from there? Direct cost push destruction of oil used in manufacturing and transportation to keep the price low or through the back door of discretionary demand destruction?
yes, in a few years time there may be negative economic impacts to $120+ oil.
which will lower demand for that oil.
the economy might be burnt toast by 2030.
I hope to live to see it.
que sera sera.
Indexed to anything more sensible than CPI (eg. home prices) and you will see that oil should be $160 or more just to keep up. Oil continues getting cheaper!
Was it not “Short on Oil” that foretold it would on the blog Peak Oil News it would get cheaper?
His “theory” in a nutshell, as oil was harder to extract the industry would require more of it and would consume more for that purpose and in turn would need cheaper price in order to do so.
Does your cashflow keep up?
Income seems adjusted to cpi, energy, housing, food not so much.
Dennis L.
“while the physical oil market is screaming higher, financial players (managed money) continue to aggressively sell and short the sector”
Maybe the financial players see recession coming. With recession, less oil is required.
Financial players, aka the big derivatives bookmakers couldn’t give a rat’s for fundamentals like recession or inflation one way or the other. If they’re agressively selling (or buying) positions it’s because they’ve significant exposure at lower (or higher) prices and are trying to get their contracts into the money by issuing yet more.
They’re well aware that doing so generally creates enough momentum to achieve their desired outcome, their skim … all they fear is the unpredictable discontinuity
The recession is here… just not in America because they are manipulating the numbers
There does seem to be some data manipulation going on. But, if a whole lot of people were being laid off, we would see much higher unemployment numbers.
Unfortunately unemployment numbers are being manipulated. Check out Jeff Snider podcast
Some people may not like where the USA is going to, and I don’t completely agree with the directions it has taken, but if USA fails and breaks down or is otherwise crushed,
the chance for a Type I CIv dies forever, notwithstanding Dennis L’s mythic machines. It is over.
Humankind will be stuck at earth forever, back to Eastern Despotism.
None of know the future of the fabric.
Dennis L.
BRICS nations won’t be able to build the stuff you want
Where do you suppose USA gets its stuff from now?
I believe that Russia for one, has been interested in the para-normal for much longer than most other countries. ( para-a prefix with many meanings, including: alongside of, beside, near, resembling, beyond, apart from, and abnormal ).
Some of the research that I have seen seems many stages ahead (blue-sky) of the funded/directed/short-term profit work in the west.
Guess thats why they have hypersonic weapons, have been keeping the ISS going and seem to have lots of chess champions at work; you know, in the Ukie dust-up.
Chinese seem to be producing stuff as well….
So maybe the Brics are the future; a type ‘A’ civilisation instead of the dumber and dumber typo-I silly-visation?
Humankind will be stuck at earth forever, back to Eastern Despotism.
There won’t even be a civilisation. Villages at best.
There have been civilizations well before fossil fuels or even metal working, no reason for them not being there in the future.
Even with all the toxicity of spent fuel ponds and other things, might take a toll here and here, but ecology and humanity adapt and besides, the planet is vast and not all swathes so affected.
No reason that prevents future civilization, just not at THAT level of energy use and material throughput as we have now, though with one plus, the vast bulk of recoverable iron, copper, lead in the decaying ruins of cities.
The big issue is getting population down far enough to allow it to get along without fossil fuels. In the year 1800, which is about the time of Malthus (population too high for resources without fossil fuels), population was about 1 billion, instead of the current 8 billion.
So, we would need a population of far less than 1 billion. Perhaps 5% of today’s population. We would also need different skills than we have today.
You present it as a global problem, maybe sub-regions can lower their populations by 95%. Japan, UK, Korea, North America, Saudi Peninsula
In my lifetime (70 years) the UK’s gone from about 50->70 million people. France is similar. Yet in 1800 England had five million people and France had about 30 million which was a better fit to the land area of the two countries … France is over 4x larger.
Given France’s size, and its better climate, it could support more people than England if it had to. I don’t think it would want our ‘surplus’ 40 million, though 🙁
The core will be able to cannibalize the periphery for some time and that’s why strategies without moral boundaries seem to flourish.
But eating neighbours and kids is of course not a sustainable strategy.
Just as hard as learning new skills will be adjusting the ration of elites to workers. Now we can support 20% in the new world maybe only 0.1%.
“The Rich Republicans erected the Georgia Guidestones in 1980. They collected money from other Rich Republicans for their “MONUMENT TO DEATH!” from 1977 on. My father was solicited to donate in a meeting in Carlsbad, California. He refused to, after having read the pamphlet the Republicans passed out as he entered the meeting. The Pamphlet called for “the removal” of people in Southern Asia, Africa, and Latin America because the planet was already TOO CROWDED.
Dad, married to a woman of color, got up and walked out but did not return the pamphlet. I read the pamphlet when visiting with my father in late 1977 or early 1978. I found it in his study and read it and then asked Dad about it. He confirmed that it was from a Republican Meeting that called for a monument to reducing Global Population.
Dad never returned the pamphlet and was subsequently murdered. The Pamphlet and other papers in his study disappeared. I have no doubt whatsoever what group of people were behind all of that.”?
https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva/posts/pfbid0rKCS81a2M9Ytm6ykqTJwUbmrkWNcKDWSgjnn3csG7k8wP1BZ2BY7wAtqtH7QvJcYl
Population grew BEFORE the fossile age with the use of iron tools in agriculture. Beginning industrialisation cannibalized the European woods, which are all reforested forests nowadays and not natural vegetation. But we have to face, that there are more and less successful methods in agriculture. These methods should allow more or less population.
If we reduce our fertile lands building wind generators on them for example, a non-petrochemical agriculture will produce less than without tons of concrete in the ground.
There are ideas how to free phosphorous with the help of mushrooms and fungi. We invest billions into gender equality – while women still aren’t dying at the Ukrainian frontline, they are only allowed to do warmongering, which is clearly discrimination – but research on basic nutrician methods must be financed jobbing at McDonalds.
If we wanted, we could perhaps nourish 1.2 billion instead of 1. But we don’ want. WE DON’T WANT OUR KIDS TO SURVIVE! It is a mental thing.
This also refers to some methods, how to make wodden barrels for example or find an easy way to cut lenses for googles. Or to construct houses and infrastructure that can be maintained by local materials. Or to install a sustainable method of irrigation like the Romans did as long as we still have energy.
By the way, I am convinced that gardening methods produce more calories than crops on fields.
We already mined all the good flint needed to make stone age tools. We can’t have a civilisation based just on sticks.
“the chance for a Type I CIv dies forever,”
Awesome! It sounded like an inhuman hellscape.
The earth is the only decent place to live, so being “stuck” here is hardly a punishment.
Of course it is inhuman, since Type I Civ would have transcended humanity.
Thank you Dobbs.
Things seem to get worse for the EU:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/things-are-heating-farmers-surround-eu-headquarters-building
“Like A Warzone”: Farmers Surround EU Headquarters Building
At some point, I would expect the EU organization to disappear for lack of funding.
Not for a while though. Globalism has placed its people in virtually every political seat, european or local.
“At some point, I would expect the EU organization to disappear for lack of funding.”
If there is little to tax with excess energy, failure of elites would be consistent with TM’s latest.
Dennis L.
>> At some point, I would expect the EU organization to disappear for lack of funding.
I would expect the EU to be the last part that fails – they can always print their Euros to fund themselves. Local governments will fail first by this logic and the EU will fail only when countries leave it.
It would be nice to have a better guess. TM posits “stuff” is disappearing faster than money is decreasing on an aggregate basis.
My largest single cost increase has been insurance. second RE taxes. Replacement costs are up, but net income secondary to insurance costs is down. In a normal world this would mean the asset has less NPV.
What does that mean? Don’t have a clue.
Dennis L.
>> What does that mean? Don’t have a clue.
I haven’t got a clue how your post relates to mine either.
summary: it hints of deflation, not inflation
Dennis L.
Why there will NOT be any changes
https://greyenlightenment.com/2016/02/22/the-daily-view-in-a-loop-and-the-elite-hate-america/
>The elite, interestingly, are not the most radicalized. The elite tend to be centrist (think Bill & Hillary Clinton), neoliberal, or pragmatic. Upending the status quo would cause them (the elite) to lose money and influence, and while they may seek reform, their approach is incrementalist
>The elite have the most to lose should there be crisis and upheaval, and hence seek self-preservation.
Which is why they will oppose any approaches to change and things will NOT change for the hoi polloi.
It is better to keep thing as it is since that creates the least amount of friction.
Also,
>If a corporatocracy involving, say, the biggest Silicon Valley companies like Google, Facebook, Apple, and Amazon ran the country, it would probably be very efficient but possibly dehumanizing. It would be like Dubai but instead of oil, the economy would be run by apps, websites, and intellectual property. There would probably be a lot of social justice – or less, with discrimination suits no longer an issue now that the companies control the courts and the rest of the government.
That is the future.
People will have NO VOICE on governance, and today’s winners will run everything
And if someone gets injured on the line of work and it would cost less to kill the person than to try to treat him/her,
a robot will simply remove the person, put the body into a conveyer belt, cremate it and send the ashes to the family, with no humans involved.
That is how a post singularity civ will progress.
I have a hard time thinking that a corporatocracy of the biggest Silicon Valley companies like Google, Facebook, Apple, and Amazon would get very far. But, you are right, if it did succeed, we would end up with the strange scenario you suggest.
It appears that a truckers strike, if well organized, is all that it takes to collapse them. Of course the guy who proposed it for New York promptly backtracked (surely on death threats) but the idea is out.
The military trucks and the State Troopers will be summoned in that kind of contingency.
The same Type I military that performed so well in Afghanistan?
Not clear how they will side.
drb , how cities die . Real time London and a few other cities in UK . Ground report .
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2024/02/25/when-cities-die/
https://rumble.com/search/all?q=tucker%20carlson%20%20bret%20weinstein
Unlike his kid brother Eric Weinstein, who tries to coattail on his more famous brother, Bret Weinstein is truly a wise man.
He seems to like to show up in Tucker Carlson’s program nowdays.
In one of his talks with Carlson, Weinstein said the elites do not feel that they have to listen to the people’s voices anymore . Since they control more than 80% of the earth’s resources, they don’t have to ask permissions from the people.
And I have to say that he is correct.
The days of democracy is now over.
Prior to 1914 only people with property could vote. In USA it was the equivalent of 50 acres, or around $200,000 today.
But, thanks to morons like Gabby Princip, Joe Gallieni and Chucky, there were now too many people with military experience and the ruling class had to throw bones to quiet them, which is why everyone could vote (votes to women were extended since women worked in the factories during the war).
Now it is time to end it.
Civilization would reach higher places by putting all power and resources into the hands of a few elites who would spare nothing for the people and put all efforts to advance to the next level.
Peoples with no stakes won’t have any say over how things are run.
Oh, chucky chucky chucky…
The crime of Chucky and his 200/400 Worcestershires are too great to not to be reminded every time.
thank you for keeping alive the blessed memory of Chucky!
It would appear that in the 1820’s Property qualifications for voting began to be eliminated. Looks like in 1826 the requirements for property rights were last eliminated in NY. People of color needed >=$250 of property to vote.
Where did 1914 come from?
Dennis L.
You love starships but you still think plebs have a chance on sharing its profits
We can have starships or we can have the plebs. But not both.
For you know who. A blogger concerned for the future of Australia.
The news around here is of an illegal immigrant from Venezuela killing a young woman in training to become a nurse, while she was out jogging. The young woman was from near where I live. I know young people who are in high school with the younger sister of the woman who was killed.
This is a Zerohedge article relating to this killing:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/media-blackout-over-illegal-immigrant-who-murdered-ga-student
A reproach can only hurt if it hits the mark. Whoever knows that he does not deserve a reproach can treat it with contempt.
Arthur Schopenhauer
https://energyskeptic.com/2024/off-road-vehicles-and-equipment-need-diesel-fueled-engines-for-power-mobility-and-efficiency/
This is a very good article by Alice Friedemann on why diesel is so essential: We desperately need it to operate off road equipment.
This is an excerpt:
Diesel , diesel and diesel .
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Diesel-Exports-to-Europe-Slump-as-Distillate-Markets-Tighten.html
Europe’s imports of U.S. diesel have nearly halved so far in February to 6.65 million barrels, down from a seven-year high imports of 11.44 million barrels in January, according to an analysis by ship tracking firm Kepler cited by Reuters.
And, in addition, it would be interesting to know in detail how is made that few diesel exported to Europe, as Shale Oil doesn’t give much diesel out when refined.
Is it all only made thanks to Canadian tar sands or is it made also thanks to heavy Saudi, Venezuelan or Russian oil?
Thanks for who can give that detail.
This is a chart of total US imports of crude oil.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrimus2&f=m
US imports of crude oil reached a high back in 2005-2006.
This is a complete list of oil imports by country:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_epc0_im0_mbblpd_m.htm
Canada is clearly the highest (and still growing) source of imported oil:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRIMUSCA2&f=M
In fact, in November 2023 (latest month shown), Canada represented about 63% of all imported oil!
The second largest is Mexico, representing about 10.5% of imported oil in November 2023. It is fairly heavy oil as well, I believe.
There are three countries in the recent 3.5% of imports range:
Saudi Arabia
Brazil
Columbia
Others are smaller, including Venezuela (heavy), Iraq, and Ecuador.
Gail, I have heard that Kazakhstan oil is substantially an import of Russian one.
Probably that’s why is zero from Russia and good figures from Kazakhstan.
I found this:
“June 3 (Reuters) – Kazakhstan is changing the name of the oil it exports via Russian sea ports to Kazakhstan Export Blend Crude Oil (KEBCO) to dissociate it from oil originating in Russia in order to avoid sanction risks and issues with financing.”
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-kazakhstan-renames-its-export-oil-avoid-russia-sanctions-risk-2022-06-03/
Gail already partially answered. However, I think (hopefully not to the dismay of Davidina…) that you still need some conventional crude in your mix in a distillation tower, you can not simply mix tar and shale (tight) and expect it to work.
They key is a comment Ravi posted about a week ago. At low (room) temperature, such as in the Strategic Petroleum reserve, adding shale will precipitate the asphalt molecules in conventional oil and foul the bottom of the SPR (which is drained by pipes that hug the bottom of the cavity). At the higher temperatures in a refinery tower things dissolve much better but you probably still need the right mix (perhaps to avoid precipitation in the pipes leading to the tower), and therefore at least some conventional oil. The final product behaves like diesel but its different molecular spectrum makes it probably a bit less efficient (thermodynamically in a diesel motor) and possibly also less able to work at subfreezing temperatures.
That is a good point.
“However, I think (hopefully not to the dismay of Davidina…) that you still need some conventional crude in your mix in a distillation tower, you can not simply mix tar and shale (tight) and expect it to work.”
I am never dismayed!
obviously US refineries have enough conventional crude to be able to input/output 17 mbpd.
or is it 18 mbpd?
the number is so high, I sometimes lose track of its enormous size.
But the point is, they need to import conventional crude already now.
they are filling that need right now, and with fairly low imports, excluding high Canadian imports which of course is heavy oil.
when 2025 arrives, it might be time to revisit this topic and see how slightly lower US refinery production has become.
From the article:
Many thanks Gail.
Some background info, for those who don’t know the subject, but I remember that you wrote also a couple of very intersting articles about this issue.
1) “these typically lighter crude oils don’t come without some processing challenges. For starters, because they are lighter, they need to be blended with other crudes to get the right balance for best utilization of existing process units. Without consistent blends, the operators must constantly adjust the crude unit operations. Without any blending:…the greater percentage of lighter components can bottleneck the crude overhead and naphtha processing units, with limited production of other fuel products like diesel and jet fuel.”
https://www.emersonautomationexperts.com/2013/industry/downstream-hydrocarbons/refining-and-blending-challenges-with-shale-oil/
2) “How Russian oil is reaching the U.S. market through a loophole in the embargo”
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/how-russian-oil-is-reaching-the-u-s-market-through-a-loophole-in-the-embargo
3) “Lighter shale oil is perfectly fine for making gasoline, but not the best for making diesel and jet fuel. Medium and heavy oil is needed for that.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Shales-Dirty-Secret.html
Regarding how Russian oil is reaching the US markets, it would seem to be that it would come in as a “product,” rather than as crude oil.
When I look at US imports of products, they are much lower than imports of crude.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_EPP0_im0_mbblpd_m.htm
The biggest share of imports comes from Canada, and Mexico is second, as with crude oil. The rest of the imported products is scattered around the world.
It is hard to see where Russian oil would come in. Perhaps through South Korea or India. But the amount of oil products imported from these countries is small.
Those who are in really bad troubles for diesel are ourselves Europeans.
I see it hard to explain by Von der leyen that we have to avoid diesel because it pollutes too much the atmosphere like Greta says..
Farmers and Truck drivers are understanding that we are going towards a hard wall, while normal citizens are instead still going on asking ourselves “why pasta has doubled its price?”
First diesel from USA and now gasoline from Russia .
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/27/russia-to-ban-gasoline-exports-for-six-months
Russia’s oil produces a higher proportion of diesel, and less gasoline. So, it is easy to see why Russia might run short of gasoline.
(BBC)
“Lord Jacob Rothschild, the financier and member of the Rothschild banking family, has died at the age of 87.
In a statement on Monday, his family called Lord Rothschild “a towering presence in many peoples’ lives”.
His career begun at the family bank, NM Rothschild & Sons, before he moved on to start his own wealth management fund in 1989.
The Rothschild family has an estimated fortune of about £825m, according to last year’s Sunday Times Rich List.
Lord Rothschild was described as “a superbly accomplished financier, a champion of the arts and culture, a devoted public servant, a passionate supporter of charitable causes in Israel and Jewish culture, a keen environmentalist and much-loved friend, father and grandfather,” in a statement released by his family.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68404567
If you believe the 825M pounds I have a bridge to sell you.
EVs seem to hit lots of limits. Georgia (where I live) is building lots of EVs. The headline in the Atlanta Journal Constitution shows this article:
https://www.ajc.com/news/hyundais-ev-plant-need-lots-of-water-some-fear-plan-to-slake-its-thirst/SQ5FZB6XPVFXRBAZLKFFGIPP7Y/
Hyundai’s EV plant needs lots of water. Some fear plans to drill wells
Pumping restrictions in coastal Georgia have forced the project to draw water from wells farther inland
Limits to terrestrial growth.
Dennis L.
which is all we have got
We don’t live in your imaginary world
Imagine this .😂
https://theautomaticearth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/ImagineEngines.jpg
The vehicle of choice now for young people are those zippy electric two wheel scooters or bikes on the side of roads. Boy do they go FAST..you got to watch for them or in a blink of an eye they are gone.
It’s so bad one city is banning them because a lady was killed by one
Woman’s death renews calls for ban on e-bikes, e-scooters in Key Biscayne
Key Biscayne Mayor Joe Rasco is proposing a ban on e-bikes and e-scooters in response to the crash.
Read also soon they will need to be insured and driver have a license.
We are too lazy to operate old fashion mechanical bikes.
We are evolving more and more into AI machines
Most users of e-Scooter and e-Bikes are those, from observation here, who previously used public transport or proper bikes.
Net result – an increase in energy demand.
Also, recharging these items inside seems to cause a lot of home fires. This is not a good result, either.
They just started a program in my city that you can rent an electric car for 5 bucks an hour.
I hope the the automakers keep making EV’s and just concentrate on EV’s. I can’t wait to see them all fail one by one when the average consumer is so tapped out, they can’t even afford a gas powered car. Perhaps we’ll see 20 year car loans and NO i’m not being sarcastic because we are already seeing 10 year car loans and vehicles that are now priced over $100,000.
Hello Kulmthestatusquo,
regarding your ideas about the elites being unassailable in the future, due in part to improved technological surveillance etc.
Others have made the objection that this system, as yet uninstalled, or only partially, would rely on an energy and material availability, which virtually all of us here see as unlikely, to say the least, but there is also, to my mind, a more fundamental flaw in your theory.
This is the fact that elites are not monolithic. Elites by their very nature, as you yourself make clear, are composed of ambitious, ruthless, and often very capable individuals. I consider it very unlikely that they will ever learn to act as a team, as it were.
Observation shows, and history reveals, that members of elites are in fact always turning on each other. Such people are, by nature, never content with what they have, and so are driven to continually scheme against each other, because one can only take something away from someone who already has something.
This pattern is evident in all civilizations, and is attested to in history and literature. Heck, anyone who has ever worked in a large organization has witnessed the power struggles taking place at the top levels.
As material conditions grow more uncertain in the years ahead, we can expect this to only intensify. The sheer bitterness of political competition in the US since 2015 is just one example of this. It shows elites fracturing as the challenge to US hegemony increases.
What happens is the first to strike with an overwhelming force wins, once for all before the other side could strike back.
There are no reorganizing forces, no chance of a counterattack. The first attack is the final attack since it would have come like it came from the outer space.
Much like Cortez’ attack against the Aztec Empire. Once Moctezuma was captured, what happened afterward was a footnote.
Once one side reaches the tech level overwhelming everyone else, that’s it. Done. Finis.
Like the Bush-Clinton-Obama clan , with the Bidens playing sidekicks, becoming kind of one, there will be an oligarchy of elites which will last forever. David Wingrove wrote the series Chung Kuo
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chung_Kuo_(novel_series)
with the setting changed to China to protect the guilty, about such oligarchy which lasts basically forever.
Came across this in searching on Jevon’s paradox in a reply on an earlier threa
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenrg.2018.00026/full
Title: Unraveling the Complexity of the Jevons Paradox: The Link Between Innovation, Efficiency, and Sustainability
Table of Contents:
Three Key Theoretical Concepts
Roles and Types of Innovation in the Evolution of Complex Adaptive Systems
Yin-yang Tension Between Minimum Entropy Production and Maximum Energy Flux
The Jevons Paradox in Relation to the Energy Metabolism of Societyb
Conclusions
Abstract:
The term “Jevons Paradox” flags the need to consider the different hierarchical scales at which a system under analysis changes its identity in response to an innovation. Accordingly, an analysis of the implications of the Jevons Paradox must abandon the realm of reductionism and deal with the complexity inherent in the issue of sustainability: when studying evolution and real change how can we define “what has to be sustained” in a system that continuously becomes something else? In an attempt to address this question this paper presents three theoretical concepts foreign to conventional scientific analysis: (i) complex adaptive systems—to address the peculiar characteristics of learning and self-producing systems; (ii) holons and holarchy—to explain the implications of the ambiguity found when observing the relation between functional and structural elements across different scales (steady-state vs. evolution); and (iii) Holling’s adaptive cycle—to illustrate the existence of different phases in the evolutionary trajectory of a complex adaptive system interacting with its context in which either external or internal constraints can become limiting. These concepts are used to explain systemic drivers of the Jevons Paradox. Looking at society’s thermodynamic foundations, sustainability is based on a dynamic balance of two contrasting principles regulating the evolution of complex adaptive systems: the minimum entropy production and the maximum energy flux. The co-existence of these two principles explains why in different situations innovation has to play a different role in the “sustainable development” of society: (i) when society is not subject to external biophysical constraints improvements in efficiency serve to increase the final consumption of society and expand its diversity of functions and structures; (ii) when the expansion of society is limited by external constraints improvements in efficiency should be used to avoid as much as possible the loss of the existing diversity. It is concluded that sustainability cannot be achieved by technological innovations alone, but requires a continuous process of institutional and behavioral adjustment.
I found the inclusion of Holling’s adaptive cycle concept illuminating and useful formalism of ideas/awareness that is always lurking on OFW. (Figure 4 may be of interest to you Gail to include in you portfolio of concept visualizations)
Also while we often consider and focus on energy dissipation as driving force, the discussion in the section entitled “Yin-yang Tension Between Minimum Entropy Production and Maximum Energy Flux” expands on thoughts regarding driving forces in self-organizing system behavior – it is a multiobjective balancing act with alternating emphasis regarding thermodynamic drivers depending upon system state.
From the conclusions:
…A second problem with indicators based on efficiency lies in the total lack of contextualization of the assessment. By default, complex adaptive systems have an evolutionary drive and this implies that they pass through evolutionary cycles. In order to study and discuss the implications of the Jevons Paradox and the link between innovation, efficiency and sustainability, it is essential to adopt a more sophisticated quantitative analysis of the energetic metabolic pattern of modern society capable of contextualizing the evolutionary phase in which the society is operating.
During a phase of economic expansion (upward causation) the insurgence of the Jevons Paradox is practically inevitable. Whether it is because of an uneven distribution of wealth or a strong aspiration for a higher material standard of living, it is unlikely that an energy surplus generated by an increase in efficiency will not be consumed by a society to fix a problem or improve living conditions.
During phases in which society is limited by external constraints (downward causation)—e.g., in case of a deterioration of the quality of primary sources (peak oil, peak water, peak soil)—we may expect a reduced supply of energy carriers for final end-uses. External limits translate into an increase in the share of energy carriers used for the exploitation of primary sources. In this situation, improvements in efficiency are required to offset the severity of external constraints on society rather than to increase final consumption. Then the implications of the Jevons Paradox will be different: society will have to negotiate new definitions of desirability through cultural and political adjustments (a new acceptable standard of living). In this case, improvements in energy efficiency may be used to generate surpluses to explore alternative sets of behaviors more compatible with new boundary conditions.
In conclusion, the Jevons Paradox entails that sustainability problems cannot be solved by technological innovations alone. They must be solved through institutional and behavioral changes.
Thanks for posting this. I know both of the authors of the academic article (Mario Giampietro and Kozo Mayumi). In fact, Giampietro was one of the people who kickstarted my work in the energy area. He invited me, plus Prof. Charles Hall and Prof. Joseph Tainter, to be major speakers both at a conference he organized in Barcelona, Spain, with a session later in the week for young people.
Giampietro’s organization paid for the three of us to stay for a week in Barcelona, at the same residence hall. So, the group of us had meals together for a week. You can see a photo on my About page.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/about/
Giampietro later encouraged me write up the talk I gave at that conference. That write-up (Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis) was published in the journal Energy in 2010.
The linked academic paper is saying that Jevons Paradox is applicable only during the growth phase–before external constraints hit. The way I see it, in the growth phase, the growing efficiency of the system goes back to the workers in the system, and they find the output of the system ever more affordable. So, as long as constraints don’t hit too hard, growth is possible.
The workers increasingly get squeezed out of this system, however, as the system hits limits. (Wages of young people are too low. They aren’t able to participate in asset appreciation because they cannot afford to buy homes, either.) Instead, the benefits of technology start going to the owners of the technology, and to those who can hang onto the coat tails of the owners of the technology (through derivatives and higher prices of assets).
Added debt and added technology seem to substitute for added energy, at least for a while. But this is not a sustainable pattern. Ultimately, the system needs to shift back to a different state. At some point, the debt bubble must break. The Asset Owners find that their “assets” are generally worthless.
I am sure that I have seen Exhibit 4 of this paper before, back in Oil Drum days. It is from 2002. Thanks for pointing it out.
https://www.frontiersin.org/files/Articles/349753/fenrg-06-00026-HTML/image_m/fenrg-06-00026-g004.jpg
The comments attached to your “about page” are pure gold. I will quote one:
“oak barrels says:
February 5, 2010 at 1:35 pm
I think offshore drilling is a must. I live on the Gulf Of Mexico, in Brownsville,Tx and I know Texans are all for it.
Cheers,
Richard A. Weisberg”
Two months after this comment Deep Water Horizon exploded and sank on April 20, 2010.
Thanks for posting. Like Xavier once said ‘We’ve kicked the rungs out of the ladder on the way up’
Welcome to the swirling turd to oblivion
Not many ancient Roman cities around one can tour as ruins..
Just for fun, here is a video of the port city of Ostia, which was outside of the Imperial city of Rome , that was where all the vital lifeline grain imports came to to feed the population, mainly from Egypt. There was even a yearly festival celebration of the ship arrival event with special rare coins minted with pagan gods of Isis and others well into the Christian era. Old beliefs die hard….
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xA89EG4jDPc
Ostia Antica was Rome’s port city, located at the mouth of the Tiber River. Join us for a walk through the heart of Ostia Antica. From the Forum monuments, along the Decumanus Maximus to the Via della Foce and into a stunning apartment complex.
Wonder what our mega cities ruins will be like after the fall…
Wood, steel, glass will not last as long as stone.
Dennis L.
The statue of Isis was carried on a ship once a year up the Tiber from Ostia to Rome in a religious procession. The ceremony still takes place today but now the statue is the Virgin Mary.
The rapture is going to happen soon..
https://imgur.com/a/6KEMvKs
Just like the second coming..promises promises
Like it’s only been over 2,000 years since it happened..
Whats he going to be this time around?…a game show host?
Sam Kinison on Jesus..
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vuOp2yJLfsk&pp=ygUfZHJldyBjYXJleSBwcmljZSBpcyByaWdodCBmdW5ueQ%3D%3D
I know, Drew Carey..the Price is right!
All joking aside…been waiting and waiting…this can can go on and on..
Look at all the relocations Fast Eddie has made since doom announcement…
Hey, Eddie, print up some T Shirts with your Doom Tour Locales and Dates..
I am not a believer in the rapture, but I can believe that some sort of supernatural event may possibly take place soon. The system seems to be reaching a point of discontinuity. I don’t understand what it will be. Before such an event takes place, more non-essential parts of the economy will be squeezed out.
Yes, supernatural as in it is part of the fabric of the universe in the future and we have not discovered it yet.
Guess: Failure to have a narrative which is consistent with reality; our narratives have become fairytales and represent what we want reality to be not what it is.
Truth is not only believing, it is a narrative which is consistent with outcomes. When it is lost, confusion reigns.
Dennis L.
essential parts of the economy being squeezed out—isn’t supernatural
its perfectly natural , when resources can no longer supply the needs of the majority.
the extreme danger in saying ”its supernatiral”—is that some people who believe that will seek to rectify the problem, with the certainty that if they ”fix things” here on earth, the ”supernatural power” will look favourably on them, and everything will be ok again.
and when things arent ok–then that ‘rectification” will become more deranged and violent towards ”unbelievers”.
things are not going to be ok—we know that.—and that is going to be seen as some one else’s fault—so kill the infidel and all will be well again, a peace will reign on earth for ever and ever,
amen
this already happening.
trump is already hailed as god’s chosen one here on earth—a criminal and se x predator for potus?—that isnt supernatural—its denial of reality.
“trump is already hailed as god’s chosen one here on earth—a criminal and se x predator for potus?—that isnt supernatural—its denial of reality.”
Then add Bill Clinton, Prince Andrew, Jeffrey Epstein, Bill Gates and a host of other influential others to that list. So what’s your point? Heard of ordering $9,000 pizzas aka PizzaGate?
the names you dropped out are not (wannabe) commander in chief of the worlds strongest army, neither are they psychotic
foolish, some of them, yes….but not world endangering lunatics
you just picked names out of a hat, anyway—they meaning nothing. Prince Andrew and Epstien have no world influence, inferring that they have reveals you own lack of knowledge of world affairs.
I can imagine the ”others” you didnt mention—-they are not part of some world cabal of elders—just people who have made money through commerce and trade.
dunno what your pizzagate thing inferred—it must mean something to you.—you lost me there.
Trump is a criminal and se x predator, through his own words and actions.
Noticed that this time round his missis is just—missing?—she obviously wants nothing to do with him.
the man is a menace to society at large, but a product of our own time i guess
Ask yourself why.
Bill Clinton before becoming POTUS was accused of being sexual predator and a sex offender and he probably still is.
He was voted into office twice with allegations of sexual deviant behavior and sexual harrassment by Paula Jones and with Jaunita Broaderick accusing him of rape. It’s okay to dismiss that but hey lets go after Trump.
When you cherry pick, you appear dumb and uniformed which going by your age that should be no surprise. You are one dumb Brit.
so was kennedy, and a range of others
none of them refused to accept the result of an election.–none of them led chants of ”lock her up” against an opponent— i could go on.
seems that if someone is rich and or famous. if follows that they must be in a position to influence world affairs.
dumb brit i may be—but not that dumb.
only one thing ultmately influences world affairs—surplus energy, or lack thereof.—i doubt if you can grasp that, but it is a universal law—dumb or not. instead you have the fixation that our problem is political
the antics of politicians are just window dressing.—they believe they are ‘influencers—they are not, any more than you or me. Money is just a means of energy exchange. I f theres no energy to exchange—money evaporates.
I gave a really dumb lecture on exactly that subject last Wednesday evening. Pity you couldnt be there. You might have learned something.
without cheap surplus energy, influence is peripheral in the long term.
without surplus energy, we go nowhere.
our time of surplus energy is over.
unless you still beleive in windmills?
PizzaGate is a pedo ring with many of its clients made up of Washington lawmakers. So keep calling out Trump when he’s not the only one you accuse of se xual improprieties.
You are an uninformed old bat but can we expect anything less from someone who worships the big black c***?
my my rodster
not back on the old pedo thing are we?—you really must be desperate to prove a point.
i point out we are in a surplus energy problem—nooooo—instead
clinton sells babies–those she doesnt sell to prince andrew she eats. And you guys believe it all—dunno why i bother responding to such utter rubbish
but it helps me understand the nutcases who used to dance round the don’s desk in the oval office—hilarious—is there nothing in all that claptrap that you question?
too daft for words
are you standing in for eddy at the moment?—he has a pedo fixation too.
If one expects something that isn’t of this universe to affect this universe then that is also a denial of reality.
Something of a different dimension might affect this universe, however.
Of a different dimension? There are 4 dimensions that we experience. There may be more but we must be living in all of the them. Can you think of how a life can exist in only one dimension in this universe?
Somehow, there is at least a little evidence that there are other dimensions that we are not aware of. They seem to be packed together.
For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction, but it may be in a slightly different timeframe than the original action. This may be behind the force that builds up for earthquakes, for example. We cannot see the effect of this force, but it is there. The speaker (Patricio Venegas-Aravena) thought it was behind gravity, as well, but others at OFW thought gravity could be explained by other means.
I listened to a video on the subject recently, but I didn’t figure out how to get a link to a recording of the talk.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Thermodynamics-2.0-slide.png
https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=t0PaX2UAAAAJ&hl=es
It also seems to be related to fractal geometry, which we find throughout nature.
Maybe I am stretching things, but it could perhaps explain some of the strange phenomena we encounter, in which people seem to be able to occasionally talk with departed loved ones, for example, or describe when they come back from near death experiences. There seem to be some things that are hard to explain.
https://www.vanderbilt.edu/AnS/psychology/cogsci/chaos/workshop/Fractals.html
The Concept of Dimension
So far we have used “dimension” in two senses:
The three dimensions of Euclidean space (D=1,2,3)
The number of variables in a dynamic system
Fractals, which are irregular geometric objects, require a third meaning:
The Hausdorff Dimension
If we take an object residing in Euclidean dimension D and reduce its linear size by 1/r in each spatial direction, its measure (length, area, or volume) would increase to N=rD times the original. This is pictured in the next figure.
Now you’re referring to a different concept, Gail. You originally mentioned something that existed in another dimension somehow affecting this universe. This implies that the dimension exists outside this universe. The dimensions you wrote about here aren’t dimensions in the same way as the space–time dimensions (e.g. fractal dimension is a number that helps describe an aspect of fractals), but those dimensions are all in this universe. There is no evidence of dimensions outside of this universe, but there are hypotheses of other universes. If it’s not of this universe, then, by definition, it can’t affect this universe. If it did, then there must be some chain of cause and effect that can be followed to an action of that something else and that whole chain must be in this universe, otherwise it couldn’t be followed.
I’m pretty sure we (and all other species) are on our own. Which makes the posts of your analyses worthwhile.
but people do expect things that are not of this universe—i keep trying to point out that that is the problem
Truly this man is the grandson of God—the anointed one.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F089ad10f-c152-46d5-9178-b208ada4f600_821x1200.jpeg
Plato’s myth of the cavern tells us our perceived reality might be a projection in 3 dimensions of true reality in higher dimensions. Though in his analogy, the shadows on the wall are a 2D projection of a 3D reality : for our brains can’t indeed not conceive a 4D space.
Imagine the Pac Man (80s video game) : he’s a 2D creature living in a 2D universe. He can’t conceive that we in our 3D world can observe him.
Blasphemer. May you burn in hell for that comment against the supreme leader, PBUH.
I suspect you are a deviant of some kind perhaps involving children.
It will indeed. Intrusions of the ufo/uap phenomena are examples of higher dimensional openings into our limited 3 d perspective. It would appear that there has been an attempt by forces outside standard human sensing abilities to make us aware of their presence.
We are like wood ticks attached to a dog having humans try to communicate with us…….we have very limited sense organs and cognitive abilities so we are very confused/puzzled// unbelieving when faced with this phenomena.
It may well be even mechanisms of simulacrum being made apparent for some reason.
Point is….we should damn well pay attention and make the effort to understand.
There is cataclysm coming rapidly now……and much of humanity can sense this if even at a gut level.
Mystics are about to have their day.
“but I can believe that some sort of supernatural event may possibly take place soon”
That’s be the pimply alien teenager who is running our simulation getting bored and deciding to try one of the ‘exciting’ options in the game settings.
Sam says:
You talk like you are Mr. Howe on Gilligan’s island! What are you going to pay Gilligan with paper money? Your wealth will disappear. You have a right to be scared. You probably can’t do anything for yourself let alone work a full day. Your constant chatter shows that you are trying to convince yourself that you will be at the top of the trash heap when collapse arrives. You are delusional most wealthy people are that’s why there is such ineptitude around the world.
Kulm the Status Quo answers:
The Elites are quite good at making plebs do things against their own interest. For example, if Howe promised Gilligan to give a job as a butler or something like that, Gilligan would have done things for Howe since being a butler in a rich man’s house is better than being at the mercy of the Skipper and the sea.
Wartime accounts of the elites are full of stories of escaping harm by convincing those who came to capture (and kill) them by promising a favor, which is almost never kept. They are masters of manipulation, something few people catch.
“I can hire one half of the working class to kill the other half.” – Jay Gould
Jay Gould’s most famous descendant, Stephen Jay Gould, never really emphasized his paternal line of descent despite of his name giving away his origins, but he did know his ancestor’s maxim very well.
“Wartime accounts of the elites are full of stories of escaping harm by convincing those who came to capture (and kill) them by promising a favor, which is almost never kept. They are masters of manipulation, something few people catch.”
Yes and there are just as many if not more stories of elites being destroyed in the times of chaos. You have to keep the people satisfied or else they will destroy you. So far they have done a good job of that with Biden and Trump but when the wheels come off you won’t be in control. It’s amazing what a bullet can do…..doesn’t take much to pull a trigger. Trust me you won’t want to be alive when the SHTf … You haven’t game planned this enough.
Some elites get destroyed. But a critical number of them do survive to fight for another day and they can fight as long as they have resources remaining.
I cited the Gabriel Garcia Marquez story of “The Death of Mama Grande”. The Mama Grande rules a town for 90 plus year till she dies. Everyone, the mayor, the priest, the doctor, the shop owner, etc, is her relative so her rule continues beyond the grave.
The Elites are not fools. They befriend the town’s mayor, police chief, fire chief, principal, pastor/priest, chief doctor, etc , giving them expensive gifts and sometimes a party in their expensive house once per year
There is a landowner family in England, Bute or something like that, which owns all the land around that area. Once per year, for a couple days, they have a banquet inviting the townspeople (presumably the morhttps://youtu.be/Icp8tOmCito?si=k-SgMPn3uFflbusIe fashionable kind), making the townspeople their allies.
And even if the plebs have the upper hand, which is rare, it will end like this.
https://youtu.be/Icp8tOmCito?si=k-SgMPn3uFflbusI
Death and the Maiden is about some South American country where the Ben Kingsley character, a minion of a dictatorship, tortures and rapes the SIgourney Weaver character, who was a dissident.
Sigourney Weaver cannot kill Ben Kingsley, who escapes and will live to fight another day, and this time he will make sure he never faces such danger again.
Sorry, the Elites are much smarter and much more ruthless than the plebs might think, and the plebs simply can’t beat them.
‘I last met Sir Henry at a small dinner party, six years ago, at the house of the nestor of Parliament of that day. Among the guests were Sir William Vernon Harcourt, leader of the opposition. i had not seen him for twenty- seven years, but of course i recognized him. The caricatures would make that sure. i asked him if he remembered me, and he said,
“Certainly, it is only twenty-seven years since i saw you last.”
At that time i was beginning to realize that i was old, and i said i hoped that he was either older than i or that he would at least strain a point and say he was, because it had been so long since i had come across any one whose years exceeded mine that i was get- ting depressed, and needed comfort. He said,
“Well, examine your English history and decide. When i was nine years old i was cross- ing London Bridge when i heard the tolling bells announce the death of William iV.”
i said, “i am grateful. you have renewed my youth, and if there is anything you desire, even to the half of my kingdom, name it. i have been the oldest man in the earth for months; i am glad to take second place for a while.”
After dinner one of the men present said he could tell the company a curious thing if they would keep it to themselves, and let it be confidential —at least as far as regarded names and dates. He said he was acting as an official, at a function some years before, where the Prince of Wales—the present King—was to receive in state the deed of a vast property which had been conferred upon the nation by a wealthy citizen. it was the narrator’s duty to formally hand the deed to the Prince in an envelope.
When everything was about ready for the presentation his clerk came to him, pale and agitated, and informed him in a whisper that the deed had disappeared! it was not in the safe; they had ransacked the place and could find no trace of it. it was a ghastly situ- ation; something must be done, and done promptly. The narrator whispered to the clerk:
“Rush!—fold up a Daily News, shove it into an official envelope, and fetch it here.”
This was done. The official committee of noblemen and gentlemen, bareheaded, and with the narrator at its head, solemnly approached the Prince where he stood supported by his imposing retinue, and with awe inspiring formalities the Daily News was placed in his hands, whereupon he pronounced, in carefully prepared and impressive words, the nation’s profound gratitude to the wealthy citizen for this precious and memorable gift. it was not even a new paper, it was two days old.
The narrator closed with the statement that even unto that day the lost deed had never been found.
https://www.marktwainproject.org/xtf/view?docId=works%2FMTDP10363.xml%3Bchunk.id%3Ddv0049%3Btoc.depth%3D1%3Btoc.id%3D%3Bcitations%3D%3Bstyle%3Dwork%3Bbrand%3Dmtp&fbclid=IwAR1SK2bp-QlKD-4-NA07yzOr4JRZzdd8ZDZFi3mV-U4NJBuzYBkxqWIhcGs#X
I liked this section that came before the section you quoted:
Our public motto is “In God [We Trust],” and when we see those gracious words on the trade-dollar (worth sixty cents) they always seem to tremble and whimper with pious emotion. That is our public motto. It transpires that our private one is “When the Anglo-Saxon wants a thing [he just takes it].” Our public morals are [touchingly] set forth in that stately and yet gentle and kindly [motto] which indicates that we are a nation of gracious and affectionate [multitudinous] brothers compacted into one—[“e pluribus unum.”] Our private morals find the light in the sacred phrase [“Come, [step] [lively!]”]
the Not-Too-Great Britain, for centuries of conjuring up wars in Europe and killing so many Europeans and propping up the rednecks who CANNOT build civilization, has to die, or turn into India-on-the-Thames. The latter would be an improvement over what happened in 1500-1945.
(Corriere)
Zelensky thanks Meloni’s government for its support to Ukraine, but he complaints that in Italy there are too many people who support Putin, therefore he and his government are together preparing a blacklist of the ‘bad Italians’ who support Putin.
Italy takes orders even from Zelensky, hip hip hurray for Italy!
https://www.msn.com/it-it/notizie/mondo/zelensky-il-grazie-all-italia-ma-da-voi-molti-fan-di-putin-stiamo-preparando-una-lista/ar-BB1iRZfW
so I see that Zelensky continues to be a comedian.
Maiden Sq was forerunner to the cancer that US spreads. Victoria Nuland must be proud of her achievements.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/cia-built-12-secret-spy-bases-ukraine-waged-shadow-war-last-decade-bombshell-nyt
If you can’t produce artillery shells you have to use the CIA.
https://faroutmagazine.co.uk/how-the-cia-infiltrated-hollywood/
“Home alone: The sorry state of Europe’s plans for self-defence”
The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) is kind of freaking out that Trump is going to detach USA from NATO, and USA think-tanks are indeed preparing that.
Even worse, Europe has no formal structures through which it can collectively even try to prepare for that military scenario and it is completely unequipped psychologically to face the prospect.
https://ecfr.eu/article/home-alone-the-sorry-state-of-europes-plans-for-self-defence/
Home alone: The sorry state of Europe’s plans for self-defence
…. Nowadays, it is less easy for complacent Europeans to shrug off such observations as typical Trumpisms. They have evidence that Trump redux would be likely to apply his malevolent instincts much more efficiently than he did in his chaotic first term as president. And the chances of him having the opportunity to do so are increasingly likely: he has now steamrollered the opposition in the early Republican primaries, and is ahead of Joe Biden in the polls.
…. The second key challenge that Europeans should be facing up to is how they would defend themselves without US backing against a Russia that had – the possibility can no longer be discounted – imposed a humiliating ‘peace’ on Ukraine. The “dormant NATO” plans being proposed by right-wing US think-tanks foresee a wholesale withdrawal of US ground forces from Europe. But Europeans have huge psychological difficulties in bringing themselves to discuss the US as they would any other foreign power, even in situations where their own strategic interests are manifestly different from those of the superpower.
…. Compounding these challenges is the fact that there is no institutional setting in which Europeans could confer. Their task is, in effect, to Europeanise NATO’s defence plans, but this can hardly be discussed in NATO. That organisation, after all, is where European militaries gather to be told what to do by Americans, but the current US administration can scarcely be expected to lead a discussion premised on its own defeat in the November presidential election. The EU has neither locus nor credibility in military operational matters. The reality is that, if a strategy for defending Europe without the Americans is to emerge, this can only be on an ‘intergovernmental’ basis – through bilateral and minilateral discussion amongst Europe’s main defence players.
…. Such planning is now an urgent requirement, not just as a matter of military preparedness, but for psychological reasons.
If Europe doesn’t have the fossil fuels to defend itself, and the industrialization based on those fossil fuels, it can’t really defend itself. It doesn’t really matter what organization tries to work through–EU or something else.
Europe is going to have a huge problem giving pensions to all of its retired workers in the year ahead. In fact, it is likely going to have problems feeding everyone.
…. Such planning is now an urgent requirement, not just as a matter of military preparedness, but for psychological reasons.
We can plan all we want. It will; do nothing.
“We can plan all we want. It will; do nothing.”
Well, it could possibly make it worse, especially if those plans are turned into action, as with wind power and solar panels.
The best use of our remaining fossil fuels would be to clean up as much as possible, rather than making things worse.
Yes, I know that won’t happen.
“2024 Election Map Forecasts Trump to Score Biggest GOP Win in Decades”
The USA elections are turning into a bit of a nightmare for European states with the unpalatable now looking likely.
Of course the big fear is that Trump will detach USA from NATO like he has long threatened and he now seems to have the support of foreign policy staff to help him do that.
https://www.newsweek.com/2024-election-map-trump-electoral-votes-biden-1872735
2024 Election Map Forecasts Trump to Score Biggest GOP Win in Decades
Donald Trump is projected to win more than 300 electoral votes in the 2024 election by flipping a number of key swing states from President Joe Biden, according to forecasters.
Analysis from Decision Desk HQ based on polling across the country predicts that Trump, the expected 2024 Republican presidential nominee, will win a total of 312 Electoral votes in November, the biggest number a GOP candidate has received since George H. W. Bush’s 1988 victory when he received 426 votes.
…. According to Decision Desk HQ’s predictions, Trump is currently on course to win a number of swing states that Biden flipped in 2020, including Arizona and Nevada.
Crucially, Trump is also on course to win the so-called “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which would put him well on his way to clinch the 270 electoral votes needed to win the next election.
Last time there was a presidential election in the Blue Wall, Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Detroit flipped the outcome in the middle of the night. What keeps them from repeating it?
Indeed. They will pull off the stunt again.
I eventually see a parting of ways between the wokist states and the rest.
“Most Europeans support Ukraine in its war against Russia but only 1 in 10 think Ukraine can win.”
Public opinion in Europe about the outcome in UKR has turned pretty realistic in the latest polls. In particular there is a widespread perception that Trump would ditch support for UKR.
NATO in Europe has in any case been getting very panicky, very publicly about the prospect of a Russian victory in UKR with talk everywhere about conscription.
NATO countries across Europe are openly saying that the entire security architecture in Europe will desperately have to be redone without USA – if it can be – once Russia wins.
So it is hardly surprising that public opinion has become vastly more pessimistic.
Plus the UKR ‘counter-offensive’ completely flopped; Russia is advancing everywhere; USA aid has already kind of ended anyway; Britain, Europe and USA have been saying that they are basically out of stuff to send, &c.
https://www.politico.eu/article/europeans-think-ukraine-lose-war-russia-survey/
> Most Europeans think Ukraine will lose the war, according to survey
BERLIN — Most Europeans support Ukraine in its war against Russia but only 1 in 10 think Ukraine can win, according to a survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), with most seeing a “compromise settlement” as necessary to end the conflict.
The responses come from 17,023 respondents to an online survey across 12 European Union countries in January.
Researchers say the pessimistic outlook is largely because of the political situation in the United States, where talks over a fresh aid package for Ukraine are at a deadlock in Congress and ex-President Donald Trump is seeking a comeback based in part on a commitment to withdraw military aid for Kyiv….
I am afraid the outcome is becoming obvious to almost everyone.
If it is really true that the US is pretty much on its own with respect to its support of Israel, even as it ignores what the International Court of Justice decrees, it seems like the US could be pushed away as an outsider, if not a villain, in what has been happening.
““Most Europeans support Ukraine in its war against Russia but only 1 in 10 think Ukraine can win.”
Perhaps those who support the war can send their children to the front, including supporting politicians.
In the US, the deplorables seem to have decided the military is not for them.
Dennis L.
b on MoonofAlabama (MoA)website included among his sunday WeekinReview thread links an interesting article that looks at conflicting approaches to decision making during pandemic:
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/02/are-evidence-based-medicine-and-public-health-incompatible.html
beyond the specifics of covid found interesting discussion of “Art/anecdotal experience” vs “Science” toward understanding/exploring “..divisions over how scientific evidence should be used to make decisions.”
Some good thought provoking comments following article.
Tidbits that may be of interest include role/appropriateness of modeling, expert knowledge, corporate and institutional influences, AI as qc etc.
who can possibly give a damn? the guy was censoring everything about covid back then on his blog (they all surely have helpers to do that good of a job), he can not possibly do anything bout this in good faith. besides, there is no nuance that needs to be studied, as you seem to claim.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/the-tech-sector-s-paradox-booming-markets-amid-rising-layoffs/ar-BB1iP8qf?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=7d252ff30a8e488bc7bdb29c9993774f&ei=11
Google “Does AI require a lot of energy?” yields “specifically for AI, global power usage for AI systems could ratchet up to 15 gigawatts of continuous demand. Nvidia currently has more than 90% of the market share for AI-specific chips in data centers, making its output a proxy for power use by the industry as a whole. Dec 15, 2023”
Conjecture: as fossil fuels deplete, technology won’t be able replace their energy, but “complexity” will tend to go out with them?
Is this idea right or wrong?
It isn’t clear to me what the actual question is, Dave.
The logical conjecture to me would be the grid.
AI systems could ratchet up to 15 gigawatts of continuous demand
Bit of a fluffy stat, this one but for measure the world’s sixth biggest economy UK has consumption Sunday night 30GW (20% of which is being imported)
As energy supply splutters it will be a political decision where to allocate blackouts
which is why the big boys are building a whole series of new datacentres close to hydro projects on NZ’s South Island
“Conjecture: as fossil fuels deplete, technology won’t be able replace their energy, but “complexity” will tend to go out with them?”
true.
therefore the expectation might be that complexity that requires high energy will go away first.
combined with the idea that non-essentials will be going away mostly before essentials.
so The System may move to the future trying to hold onto the complexity within essential sectors, and going longer if this essentials complexity requires relatively low energy.
that’s all vague and theoretical of course.
the actual decline over the next few decades will be quite interesting.
I think no matter what, that means deflation.
E.g. the office building sector. If those buildings are closed there will be energy savings. A building without tenants is not an income center, it is a cost center.
Better yet, cloud computing above the clouds, space, very cold there and tremendous solar electricity. Must is already in for $1B per year.
Dennis L.
That reads like one of Don Quixote’s delusional musings
Digital surveillance (data centers) and digital currencies are quite the hogs. And once these go the whole controlled depopulation program goes. I do not understand these elites. They physically undermine their essential long term projects.
Schinzy posts here occasionally , I picked up his comment on POB on shale oil production . Interesting . Connect the dots .
” SCHINZY
IGNORED
02/25/2024 at 1:21 pm
I have to admit severely underestimating LTO production. In hindsight, I
think my principle error was the naive assumption that unprofitable oil
would not be extracted. I watched in amazement as the 260 bankruptcies in the
LTO sector just seemed to attract more capital. It would be interesting to
subtract all the oil produced by wells that won’t pay out from current
production and see if that production is closer to other analysts
projections.
However I am much more interested in the economic effects of peak oil than
the actual date. In that respect my predictions have held out fairly well:
1. Since 2008 I have been saying that oil prices would be lower than most people expect when peak oil occurs.
2. I have predicted a shift to agroecology after peak oil completely changing the labor market.
3. I have been predicting negative real interest rates after peak oil. Negative real interest rates change everything. If you own a resource and real interest rates are positive, you should produce your resource as fast as possible to make as much money as possible today. In the future, if you need the resource, you can always buy it with your money. If on
the other hand real interest rates are negative, you do the opposite. That is to say you husband your resource and only produce what you need. In the future, if you need money you sell a little of your resource to get the money you need. I think negative real interest rates will significantly effect oil production post peak oil.
>> Conjecture: as fossil fuels deplete, technology won’t be able replace their energy
Improvements in technology will lower the energy requirements, allowing us to have better technology against a declining-energy backdrop.
😛
Improvements in technology will lower the energy requirements
Technology only ever increases overall energy consumption.
I know, hence the 😛
The idea of Jevon’s Paradox that “increased efficiency (via improved technolpgy) only ever increases consumption” is only correct in a system that is not resource constrained.
There is a second part to Jevon’s paradox that is commonly forgotten. I like to paraphrase as
“…unless rationing is imposed (or other behaviors changed/ imposed) which becomes more important when resource limits manifest within a system.
Came across this in searching on Jevon’s paradox:
a most clarifying read which I will expand upon in a new thread.
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenrg.2018.00026/full
Unraveling the Complexity of the Jevons Paradox: The Link Between Innovation, Efficiency, and Sustainability
https://mishtalk.com/economics/a-blue-state-exodus-who-can-afford-to-be-a-liberal/#google_vignette
Understanding Blue State Exodus
Tiny details of the evolution of a giant collapse. Not very significant either as there are plentiful fault lines through which the whole thing can break up.
I wish I could find the author who wrote ” Communism is a parasite in search of its next capitalist host.”
Google doesn’t seem to know where it came from. Maybe you are the author.
George Kennan, an American diplomat and historian, expressed a similar sentiment in his famous “Long Telegram” sent in 1946. In this telegram, he described world communism as a “malignant parasite which feeds only on diseased tissue” and emphasized the need to “contain” the Soviet Union1.
Per Copilot and I know it has been wrong in the past.
Dennis L.
0/2000
er
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/oil-tanker-shortage-emerges-after-red-sea-crisis-disrupts-global-trade
The Red Sea shipping crisis has been an explosive mess for the international shipping community and the global economy. With oil tankers increasingly steering clear of the southern Red Sea and the Bab el Mandeb Strait, shipping capacity has rapidly tightened, pressuring daily rates higher.
Bloomberg reports only two new supertankers will join the global fleet in 2024, the fewest additions in forty years and about 90% below the yearly average over the last two decades.
“The impact of the diversions can be seen every day in shipping in general, and I would say crude oil and product tanker shipping,” specifically, Alexander Saverys, CEO of Euronav NV, one of the largest tanker owners in the world, told investors during an earnings call earlier this month.
Saverys said low deliveries and an aging global fleet are a perfect recipe for a positive [high-priced] outlook on tankers. . .
Charts from the latest Goldman Oil Tracker show flows through the Bab-El-Mandeb continue to deteriorate and remain down 1.8mb/d (or 27% on a 14DMA Basis) since disruptions started on December 18. . . Goldman also shows tanker rates have surged.
The revolving government/industry door works just as much in determining what is “truth” as it does in determining which vaccines are “safe and effective.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/cia-trust-safety-silicon-valley-us-intel-revolving-door-bigger-you-thought
From CIA To ‘Trust & Safety’: The Silicon Valley-US Intel Revolving Door Is Bigger Than You Thought
JMS says:
You can’t have a society, and by extension a civilization, without some type of mechanism that curbs individual selfishness and voracity, whether this mechanism is called law or clemency.
Otherwise what you get is an unruly and ungovernable pleb. Government by pure terror is efficient, but it can hardly last long, since it undermines something vital in human societies, that is social cohesion – somehting you can only get with a degree of cooperation and solidarity.
Against foreigners things are different. It is against them that the ruthlessness you attribute to our species prevails, and civilization is build.
Read Turchin’s “War, Peace and War”.
Kulm the Status Quo answers.
In the old days government by pure terror was not possible since it was impossible to monitor everything
But now it is possible to monitor everything so a government by pure terror has become technologically feasible.
Social cohesion is kept by terror and by habit as after a generation or so those who didn’t like the arrangement are all weeded out. Plutocracies in Latin America, the autocracy in North Korea and Turkmenistan and a few other places, etc will last basically forever without foreign intervention, and also the elite rule over the humanity or at least the civilized oarts of it.
Turchin is debunked in this series of posts
https://greyenlightenment.com/?s=turchin
The Chinese Imperial System lasted for 2000 years until the English ships attacked in 1839, which is like an invasion by the aliens.
My answer referred to past, historical conditions. At present, I agree that the elite has achieved a power of monitoring and control that the tyrants of the past could only dream of, and that the political game is completely lost to the common people, at least in first world countries (In Africa and Latin America the situation may be be different, since there a certain balance of power still prevails between the elite and the 99%).
It will make the caste system in India look quite egalatarian.
Execution of Emperor Maximilian of Mexico
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXIjA6EH5Zs
Maximilian was a never do well Habsburg prince who was offered the throne of Mexico, and despite of knowing next to nothing about it, he became its Emperor.
After a bunch of events I would not retell, Maximilian was captured, and the President of Mexico, Benito Juarez (Mexico’s first and last indigenous President), giving no shit about a European nobleman, ordered him executed.
Two Mexicans, Miguel Miramon and Tomas Mejia, remained loyal to the Emperor to the bitter end, and they had the honor to be executed together with the Emperor. Maximilian, in his will, wrote to ask the Habsburgs to send a pension to Miramon’s family for his loyalty.
So, Miramon and Mejia, who would have been just footnotes and would have been swept in the memory hole forever, are now forever enshrined in this painting along with their fallen lord.
There will be enough people who are kinda competent and will stay loyal to the Elites , something few non elites catch.
I do enjoy your history lessons.
Me too.
Jan says:
You overestimate the landowners. Do you think any of the rich brats will be able to maintain an education level of highschool only in their bunkers?
Kulm the status quo answers
The computers they are taking into bunkers will have all the knowledge needed and they will have a way to utilize it since AI has advanced enough to teach how to live and some batteries are longer lasting
Even after the Habsburgs lost their empire, they had relatives all over Europe and did not do too badly, even Franz Ferdinand’s disinherited descendants from a morganatic union.
The last Crown Prince of Habsburg married his heir off to a daughter of Thyssen-Bornemisza family, sometimes called the richest family of Europe, despite of the inconvenient fact that their Baronic title had been purchased. The heir separated with the tycoon’s daughter, who didn’t really like him, but not before producing a next generation which will be well provided for
That’s how true elites work
They also retain enough loyal retainers, whose lives are so tied to the host that they cannot separate
4 servants of the deposed NIkolai II followed their former lord all the way to Siberia, and then to the firing squad. That is how elites work.
You talk like you are Mr. Howe on Gilligan’s island! What are you going to pay Gilligan with paper money? Your wealth will disappear. You have a right to be scared. You probably can’t do anything for yourself let alone work a full day. Your constant chatter shows that you are trying to convince yourself that you will be at the top of the trash heap when collapse arrives. You are delusional most wealthy people are that’s why there is such ineptitude around the world.
Kulm will encounter machete wielding raiders who will not be familiar with the works of Jane Austen.
Lol, lol!!!
You can’t farm land with “AI”. “AI” will tell you to hire black experts, or that asparagus can grow at the North Pole.
Even this guy knows you need real experience and know-how:
https://twitter.com/RadioGenoa/status/1761442812229218652
Six years from now the poke, pull, pick corporation that Dennis founds will plant (poke), weed (pull), and harvest (pick).
I see Robert Sepehr in the comment, who does have some interesting videos.
The black guy might be regretting the departure of the Boers. Civ has to be maintained by some people and the process is less than pretty.
(Reuters)
Italy is putting itself in troubles for the future.
In my view, what is indicated in the 2 articles below shows the intention of creating a long term fight with Russia for the years ahead, left on the shoulders of European Countries (plus others), while probably US will focus on fighting Cina.
Very bad problems in front of us, because I don’t think Russia and China will appreciate much…
“Western leaders in Kyiv, G7 pledge support for Ukraine” […] “Meloni said as she signed a 10-year defence pact with Zelenskiy.
Trudeau signed a similar accord and pledged some $2.25 billion in financial and military support this year.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/western-leaders-kyiv-g7-pledge-support-ukraine-war-anniversary-2024-02-24/
And also:
“The deals would promise continued provision of military and security aid, support to develop Ukraine’s defence industrial base, training Ukrainian soldiers, intelligence-sharing and cooperation, and support for cyber defence.
The sides would also immediately hold consultations with Kyiv to determine “appropriate next steps” in the event of a “future Russian armed attack”.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-are-security-deals-ukraine-is-discussing-with-allies-2024-02-23/
Meloni was WEF all along, and this is the result. I see another September 8 in our future.
Student , here is something you will like . We had to destroy the village in order to save it .
https://tomluongo.me/2024/02/20/why-war-bonds-are-making-their-return-in-europe/
Just as Donald Rumsfeld, Sec of Defense once said “You don’t go to war with the army you’d like to have, you go to war with the army you’ve got” the same applies for negotiations. You don’t negotiate (from a position of strength) that you’d like to have, you negotiate from the position you have, which in the case of Ukraine grows weaker by the day.
Better for Ukraine to cede territory and preserve what little is left, than lose all of the remainder to those who want to claim their historically entitled share-Poland, Romania etc.
Basically the west is telling Russia, you must surrender, i.e., withdraw from all territories annexed since this SMO began, and disarm so that we can come in and conquer you.
After what has transpired, I don’t see how Russia can EVER negotiate with the West, the latter whose treachery is beyond belief. The US and UK will even serve up their own allies as proxies to be eaten alive, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians, killed, wounded, and maimed for life, families, homes, and livelihoods -all ruined- for these ivory tower elitists’ bullshit.
The West ( the globalists and Zionists) enables the corruption in UKR so Ukrainians have ZERO chance of cleaning up their own country, and this is the same MO here in the US: destruction of our society through multipronged attacks on the currency/financial system, illegal alien invasion, woke agenda, disruption of the family unit, school /education system, control of the legal system, fake pandemic, big pharma, media, and electoral systems, degradation of military, food and energy supply disruption, etc.
So don’t expect any change will occur even if our “savior” Trump gets elected. It won’t make much difference as it will be too late. Ironically, Stalin and Mao were right when they said “what matters is who counts the votes” and “power comes at the barrel of a gun.” Only by going door to door, lynching and stringing up these globalists, politicians, MIC executives, bankers and controllers is there any chance for any kind of recovery and from there any chance that the rest of the world will be be willing to sit down at the table an discuss rational alternatives. No need for “fair trials” for these scum as there is no justice anyway. Let them eat their own justice- street justice. Not that this solves the problem, because our society is so unstable that a civil war will likely follow in such a vacuum, kind of like Robespierre’s reign of terror. The French peasants were armed with only pitchforks back in 1789, but many US Citizens are armed. But for now, we all fraise our hands and repeat the dogmas of “peacefully protesting, voting the bums out, and the accused are entitled to fair trials.”
And everyone is fawning all over Tucker Carson over how Putin agreed to be interviewed by him. Tucker is the consummate “preppie” lightweight, helped through life by his daddy, and who thinks he has clout- because the people are dumb enough to hang on to his every word. Yes he has exposed a lot of the so called dysfunction in our government, but only to the extent that the Globalists know that the people still are too dumb, lazy, spoiled, distracted, and comfortable (for now) to do anything about it. Tucker is like the preppie who runs for president of the student council to bolster his chances for admission into college and is really interested in advancing his own self interest. Not that the link below may be totally accurate, but is nevertheless definite food for thought. His furrowed eyebrow expression is so phony, just like Erin Burnett’s of CNN’s “Out Front” fake pursed lips expression – a true whore of the media. She and Tucker is just more subtle than the rest on mainstream media and late night comedy.
But, Putin knows all this about Tucker and politely accommodated this lightweight with an interview, telling him nothing new. Putin fired a hidden barb at Tucker when he mentioned how Tucker’s application to the CIA was rejected.- because Tucker is such a righteous lightweight, even Daddy couldn’t get him in. Putin knew that it was a no lose strategy to accommodate Tucker so that Putin could not be accused of being the one whose mind was closed to negotiations and discussion. The only thing that puzzles me was why would Putin have asked Clinton to join NATO, when such an act would have mooted the very purpose of NATO in the first place, or was this just to for the sake of completeness show that Russia had tried any and all avenues to work with the West?
https://www.bitchute.com/video/AwNOU0ivQvEv/
Putin asked that to Clinton to uncover the real US intentions.
It was a clever move typical of diplomacy of ancient kingdoms.
In my view US is more on this kind of moves:
– How much it cost? I want it.
– Oh, I cannot buy it?
– Ok, I will destroy it.
Hubb this is a beautiful post. As Kulm makes so clear if we want it just take it. Sadly, the herd is so domesticated they will jump into the stew pot when told to.
The Chinese have a zero sum view of power. For me to win you must lose. They will do what needs to be done. See for example the TV show “The Princesses” a Chinese show of historical court intrigue.
I miss Fast Eddie..hope his relocation to Perth is smooth and trouble free.
It’s boring here not debating him about the Moon landings and how safe the vaccines are for all the Moreons.
Can’t what for pictures of Hoolio and Shasa at their new local
Are you still one that thinks the vaccine was safe? A lot of people I know are now questioning it. When they get sick it seems for much longer and much worse.
I can’t wait for Eddy to come back so I can ask him what are his thoughts about the safety of the vaccine. He has been quite demure about offering his opinion.
How long should we wait to announce fasteddynz was apprehended and disposed of by the AUS authorities?
If he can find some peace of mind in his new country maybe the 1500hp spirit will abandon him and he will return as “paulau” with a whole new lease on BAU.
Drb, I appreciate in general your comments and maybe FE is sometime repetitive on that argument, but you are kidding on this issue of the vaccines because you didn’t lived the nightmare of mandatory vaccination and digital green pass of the “collective west”.
Because you were (lucky you) outside this crazy area during that period.
What happened to those who took a pass, ie skipped the jab?
Dennis L>
It was just a little friendly sarcasm, Student. No harm done.
England came off more lightly than most. Ditto the Nordic countries I think.
The only mandate tried in England (and Wales) was care home workers. It later collapsed. NHS workers put up a creditable resistance so no mandate was ever implemented. Possibly >25% refused.
In the country as a whole probably 30% said ‘no thanks’. The coercion was unpleasant but enough people resisted it. The official figure of 90% jabbed is apparently a lie.
And we talk here about China’s Cities
Fortune
FINANCE ECONOMY
CRE vet who advised on $8 billion of deals says 30% of office buildings are ‘basically worth nothing’ and ‘just have to be torn down’
“It’s the most adaptable that survives,” says housing analyst Fred Cordova, who sees a lot of demolition ahead.
BY DYLAN SLOAN
February 25, 2024 5:00 AM EST
Record-high office vacancy rates are threatening to send major cities into an “urban doom loop,” where falling property values shrink a city’s tax base, cutting off funding for essential public services that only drag property valued down further. Columbia Business School professor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, who’s been dubbed the “prophet of urban doom” for his research on the topic, told Fortune that we’re close to the “event horizon” of that vicious public-finance circle.
There could be a partial escape route, though. Experts say that clever public policy could help lay the path for a way out that doesn’t involve a doom loop. In New York City and elsewhere, residents are facing a surplus of office space alongside a severe shortage of housing. Simply converting square footage from commercial to residential sounds like a simple fix—but the government would need to play a part for it to take off.
Perhaps there is no difference between making ware material hand having it destroyed and building a useless office building and tearing it down.
Dennis L.