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In the US, companies that want to build liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals need to get advance approval for their plans from the US Department of Energy. There was a recent news item saying, “Biden pauses LNG export approvals under pressure from climate activists.” After looking into the situation, I 100% agree with Biden’s decision. There is no sense in the US adding more approvals for added LNG capacity at this time. This is the case, completely apart from climate considerations.
When looking into the situation, I found that the US already has a huge amount of LNG export capacity approved but not yet under construction. The likely roadblock is the need for debt financing. One obstacle is the need to find investors willing to make very long commitments–as long as 25 years, considering the time to build the LNG plants, plus the time that they are expected to be in operation. Issues that could be expected to get in the way of long-term investment would include:
- Today’s relatively high interest rates.
- Today’s low US natural gas prices (Henry Hub natural gas price is currently $1.64 per million Btus, a near-record low), discouraging investment in natural gas extraction.
- The possibility that US oil and natural gas extraction from shale formations will reach limits within the next 25 years.
- The possibility that overseas buyers will not be able to afford exported LNG at the prices needed to make extraction profitable. For example, a selling price of $25 per million Btus would probably greatly reduce the quantity of LNG that could be sold in the EU.
- The possibility of construction delays caused by broken supply lines.
- The possibility of fires causing significant down-time in operating facilities.
- Even if natural gas is available for export, and even if LNG export facilities are built, there is the possibility that the rest of the system, including specialized LNG transport ships, may not be available in sufficient quantities.
In this post, I will try to give some background on this issue.
[1] Many people seem to believe that the US can easily ramp up natural gas production for export if it chooses to do so.
There seems to be a common belief that the US has an almost unlimited supply of oil. Natural gas is produced together with oil, so a corollary to the high supply of oil is that the US has an almost unlimited supply of natural gas.
At the same time, there are many parts of the world with an inadequate supply of natural gas. Many of these countries are trying to add wind and solar power generation. Natural gas is very helpful for balancing wind and solar because electricity production from natural gas can be ramped up and down very quickly, filling in when intermittent sources of supply are not available.
The European Union (EU) is one area that has very inadequate natural gas supply (Figure 1). The EU is also known for its use of wind and solar power, so it needs natural gas for its balancing ability.
If it is true that the US has a huge supply of US natural gas, all that would seem to be needed to solve the EU’s wind and solar balancing problem is for the US to export natural gas to the EU.
The modern way of exporting natural gas seems to be as LNG, transported by specialized ships at a very low temperature (about – 260°F (-161.5°C)). It appears that all that the US needs to do is to ramp up its natural gas production, and with it, its LNG export infrastructure.
[2] Natural gas prices vary widely around the world. US prices are much lower than elsewhere. These differences would also seem to support building more LNG export facilities.
Figure 2 shows that US natural gas prices are much lower than elsewhere. This has especially been the case since 2008 when the shale boom began, making it look as if the US can easily export natural gas if it likes. Even with the cost of shipping included, it looks as if consumers in the EU and Japan might find US LNG attractive in price.
[3] Natural gas tends to be cheap to extract but getting it to the customer and storing it until the right time of year is an expensive headache.
Natural gas is a fuel that is disproportionately used in winter to heat homes and businesses. This heat can be provided by burning the natural gas directly, or it can be provided by first burning the natural gas to produce electricity, and then using a device, such as a heat pump, to provide heat.
If natural gas can be utilized close to where it is extracted, there tends to be a huge cost advantage over long-distance transport. Clearly, one reason is that utilization near the point of extraction reduces transit costs. Also, empty gas caverns that can be used for storage are often available near the point of extraction. This storage approach is much less expensive than building specialized tanks for storage. These cost advantages are one reason why US natural gas prices shown on Figure 2 are much lower than those in the EU and Japan.
[4] Low natural gas prices in the US are now well “baked into the system.”
With natural gas prices remaining low for around the past 16 years, individuals and businesses have adjusted their consumption patterns based on the assumption that an abundant supply of inexpensive natural gas will be available permanently. US natural gas production has approximately doubled since its low point in 2005, and consumption has almost kept up.
Many changes have taken place since gas prices fell. The US electrical system has significantly reduced its reliance on coal and instead increased its utilization of natural gas. People have built oversized homes based on the assumption that cheap natural gas will be available to heat them. Businesses have built factories in the US under the assumption that electricity costs of the US will continue to be low compared to those in Europe, Japan, and many other parts of the world, indirectly because of the US’s inexpensive supply of natural gas.
These low electricity and natural gas prices give the US a competitive advantage in making goods for export. With the shift away from coal for electricity production, the US can now say that it has reduced the carbon intensity of its electricity. Politicians like the competitive advantage for the US as well as the lower carbon intensity. Few of them would vote to go back to earlier ways, even if it was possible to do so.
[5] Natural gas tends to be utilized close to where it is produced. The early form of natural gas export was by pipeline. In recent years, LNG exports have increased.
Figure 4 shows that, consistently, about 75% of natural gas is used in the region where it is extracted. This happens because natural gas tends to be inexpensive close to the point of extraction. The use of inexpensive resources helps make an economy competitive in the world market, making them attractive for local use.
Pipeline trade tends to be inexpensive if the distance is short. The disadvantage is that pipeline gas tends to be inflexible; prices are often locked in for long periods. Pipelines can be a disadvantage if they pass through another county. The country allowing transit will likely want to make a charge for this service; this can lead to conflict. Pipelines can easily be blown up if countries start fighting with each other.
LNG is the newer approach to exporting natural gas. Its advantage is its flexibility; its disadvantage tends to be its higher cost when the entire cost of the operation is considered. There need to be export facilities where the natural gas is chilled and loaded into specialized tankers. Investors, quite possibly from another country, need to invest in the specialized tankers used to transport the LNG. At the other end, there is the need for regasification plants and for gas pipelines to the facilities where the gas is to be utilized.
Recouping the total cost of the system can be a problem with LNG. If prices are set under long-term contracts pegged to the price of oil, as has been the case between Japan and Russia, advantageous prices for the producers can be obtained. (Note the high prices Japan has been paying in Figure 2.) Of course, with long-term contracts, the flexibility of the system is lost.
In some years, there has been more LNG capacity than required in Europe. Exporters without long-term contracts started selling natural gas at spot prices, depending upon the balance between supply and demand at the time of the sale. (Notice the lower natural gas prices for Europe in Figure 2). It is not clear to me that investors can earn enough on their investments, if they are forced to depend on spot prices, which can easily fall too low if there is excess supply.
On the other hand, if the LNG market gets tight, as it did in 2022, spot prices can jump very high, making it difficult for LNG buyers to find affordable supply.
[6] An analysis by the EIA indicates that the US already has a great deal of LNG export capacity at some stage of development.
The most recent EIA analysis of LNG capacity in the process of being developed is shown at this link.
The above analysis was performed using data as of the end of 2022. It shows that at that time, the amount of liquefaction capacity was
- 37.0 billion cubic feet/day (Bcf/d), considering existing, under-construction and approved liquefaction capacity.
- 18.7 Bcf/d, considering existing and under-construction liquefaction capacity.
More recent information is also available. A release dated January 26, 2024, by the Department of Energy says,
The United States is the global leader in LNG exports with 14 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in current operating capacity and 48 Bcf/d in total authorizations approved by DOE to date, over three times our current export capacity.
This quote seems to imply that the total authorizations increased from 37.0 Bcf/d to 48 Bcf/d, based on an unpublished, more recent, analysis.
The 14 Bcf/d in current operating capacity is far above recent LNG export amounts. The actual quantity of US LNG produced in 2022 was 10.8 Bcf/d based on the data underlying Figure 5. Based on data through November 2023, I would estimate that amount of LNG produced in 2023 amounted to about 11.7 Bcf/d. These comparisons suggest that the actual amount of LNG produced may lag significantly below the stated export capacity.
If we compare the total exports authorized of 48 Bcf/d to the actual production amount (about 11.7 Bcf/d for 2023), the ratio is over 4, implying a very high amount of authorized additional LNG production capacity.
[7] The EIA model shown in Figure 5 indicates that several conditions need to hold for LNG exports to ramp up substantially.
(a) Figure 5 indicates that for NGL exports to increase significantly, both oil and natural gas prices need to be high. With low oil and low natural gas prices, exports do not increase much at all, regardless of the infrastructure built. (As I noted in the introduction, US natural gas prices are now very low. World oil prices are not very high, either. Thus, the model indicates that not much ramping up in NGL exports should be expected, even if more export capacity is added.)
(b) To enable export of the maximum amount of LNG overseas, “Fast Builds” of the rest of the infrastructure also needs to be high. In other words, there must be rapid growth in the number of LNG transport carriers and in receiving facilities for the exported LNG.
(c) The fact that the gray shaded area (indicating the scenarios the modelers thought likely) does not extend to the Fast Builds scenario means that the modelers consider this scenario unlikely. Even if infrastructure is built on this end, other parts of the system likely won’t be in place.
(d) Hidden in the assumptions is the fact that the citizens at the receiving end of the LNG must be able to afford electricity made with high-priced natural gas and products such as fertilizer, made with high-priced natural gas. If citizens at the receiving end cut way back on their use of natural gas (by not heating their homes as much, or by doing less manufacturing using electricity, or by making less fertilizer with natural gas), export prices are likely to fall.
[8] The reason why oil prices need to be high for high LNG exports is because much of the natural gas extracted is produced at the same time as oil.
If oil prices fall too low, US production of oil from shale is likely to drop (as it did in 2020), and with it the production of natural gas. With low oil prices, US natural gas extraction is also likely to lag. In this scenario, the natural gas necessary to support the hoped-for rise in natural gas exports won’t be available.
With both high oil prices and high US natural gas prices, consumers in the EU and elsewhere will have an especially difficult time affording the high cost of imported natural gas from the US. The problem is that if natural gas costs are already high before all of the cost of processing it to make LNG and shipping it long distance are incorporated, its cost will be doubly high for buyers in the EU (and elsewhere). Furthermore, the budgets of EU consumers will already be stretched by high oil prices, making high-cost LNG even more unaffordable.
[9] People believe that fossil fuels can rise arbitrarily high, but this is not true. Unaffordably high prices are the limiting factor for LNG exports.
Farmers are particularly strongly impacted by high oil and natural gas prices. High oil prices tend to make the cost of the diesel used to run farm equipment very high. High natural gas prices tend to make ammonia fertilizer very expensive. If both oil and natural gas prices are very high, the combination will tend to lead to very high-cost food. Citizens generally get very unhappy about very high-cost food. Farmers tend to protest, as farmers in Europe have done recently, because it becomes impossible for them to pass their high costs on to consumers.
There are clearly many other parts of the economy affected by high oil and natural gas prices. With high natural gas prices, electricity prices tend to be high. Families find their budgets stretched because of the high cost of both home heating and transportation. Food costs are likely to be high also. Economies tend to be pushed into recession by high oil and natural gas prices.
[10] A wise approach would be to go slowly in building LNG export capacity.
If excess LNG export capacity is built, those building the liquefaction plants will find the return on their investment very low.
In a self-organizing system, new technology is usually slowly adopted. Investors see a niche that appears to be profitable and build a little at a time. They wouldn’t try to put a huge amount of LNG export capacity in place without making certain that a little bit works. This same approach is used by manufacturers trying any new technology; they start on a small scale and then gradually scale up the process.
The US has already approved a very substantial amount of future LNG liquefaction capacity. It seems to me that there is a need to pause the acceptance of new applications for a while to see whether the many LNG facilities in the queue can actually be built and can sell the LNG they produce profitably. Perhaps profitable new LNG plants can only be built if firm long-term contracts at quite high prices can be signed.
Going slowly would seem to be an appropriate approach for now.
And to think we have problems..No More Flush for YOU
One of the world’s biggest cities may be just months away from running out of water
By Laura Paddison, Jack Guy and Fidel Gutiérrez, CNN
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/25/climate/mexico-city-water-crisis-climate-intl/index.html
Mexico City, a sprawling metropolis of nearly 22 million people and one of the world’s biggest cities, is facing a severe water crisis as a tangle of problems — including geography, chaotic urban development and leaky infrastructure — are compounded by the impacts of climate change.
Years of abnormally low rainfall, longer dry periods and high temperatures have added stress to a water system already straining to cope with increased demand. Authorities have been forced to introduce significant restrictions on the water pumped from reservoirs.
Several neighborhoods have suffered from a lack of water for weeks, and there are still four months left for the rains to start,” said Christian Domínguez Sarmiento, an atmospheric scientist at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM).
Politicians are downplaying any sense of crisis, but some experts say the situation has now reached such critical levels that Mexico City could be barreling towards “day zero” in a matter of months — where the taps run dry for huge swaths of the city.
Not a problem, Trucks will be used…
Not to bring water IN but take people OUT…right to the border…
Reality bites
Same situation in Barcelona .
https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/02/21/an-exceptional-solution-catalonia-is-bringing-in-water-by-boat-to-top-up-dwindling-supplie#:~:text=Catalonia%20is%20experiencing%20one%20of,16%20per%20cent%20of%20capacity.
Enjoying this, end of day, it will take a few sessions to finish it.
Kul is interested in wealth, some of his answers may be here.
We live in a world which has many layers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJxBnSyH0T4
It seems to me there is a great deal of fairly interesting content available, much more so than TV which I have not had in 22 years.
Dennis L.
This dude has never done anything notable. He is simply seeking status by doing podcasts and having opinions in the new attention-economy.
As it were, I don’t really seek much from these people other than help asking the correct questions.
Tragedy and Hope by Quigley might also would be a good book to consider as well.
My impression is he does not seek status. He mentions his children, he has a PhD in math from Harvard and can grow hair on his head. That is a great deal.
Dennis L.
He is nothing without his famous brother
Eric Weinstein is like Eric Roberts to Julia Roberts.
The only claim of Eric Weinstein is he is the brother of Bret Weinstein, who is a genius.
But since Bret is busier, Eric acts like the older brother of Farinelli, who performed the sexual functions his castrato brother could not fulfill.
Great news! We’ve taken South Carolina.
The great leader, Peace Be Upon Him, is way ahead of Buzzard Haley the Usurper.
Time for the Buzzard to chuck it in and admit defeat for the nomination.
The clouds are parting and the sun is peaking through.
When we take the Oval Office it’s drill, baby, drill. Gas prices will fall and spark a new dawn for mankind. No more wars and low costs of living.
Death to Socialism. A new wave is sweeping the Argentine too. Wetbacks can stay home.
Hail President Trump the Magnificent!
Just in case Student hasn’t sent this….
https://patriots.win/p/17sPBAAbE8
That guy is way more lucid than the head of the Biden Crime Family.
America has become a joke.
Seems this may be intentional by those in control, which has global reach…they realize that America’s days are numbered, along with the shale oil output and repositioning themselves to keep their power by establishing another power center (ie BRICS).
They care not about America, which is a joke shown by all the foolishness being displayed on the media. .
Real degenerate and low life culture.
When the plug is pulled, their nest will be featured and we here in the USA will be holding an empty bag.
Remarkable the extent of their tentacles of reach
Where to those in control go?
China? Doubtful
Russia? Seems like many tall buildings have faulty handrails.
Europe? Seems like there is an invasion by people of old, Arabs, the Med is not that wide.
Biology, always biology.
Future is difficult to see.
Dennis L.
The Fog of war….
😀
From an outside perspective, it looks like they are trying to save face by blaming it on QC issues. Perhaps they are beginning to realize that EV’s are not the future.
“Automotive News was the first to report Ford Motor Co. halted shipments of all 2024 F-150 Lightning electric pickup trucks for an undisclosed quality control issue just weeks after slashing production volumes for the EV model due to sliding demand.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rolling-disaster-ford-halts-2024-f-150-lightning-shipments
Any excuse is a good excuse.
Any quality issues has to be made public or lawsuits will come in….
Some people have the fantasy that maybe the elites will be brought low after a collapse.
I predict a final , ruthless resource grab before the Crunch.
I listen to the guy Canadian Prepper a lot nowdays. He talks about the bunkers the elites are building, and the preserved food, which are good up to 25 years, they are stockpiling. Apparently he makes a living catering to them plus others with money to shell to survive the Crunch.
The Elites did not reach there by being nice or kind. They don’t give a shit if people perish outside of their compounds, They won’t risk their skin to rescue others.
They know losing the resources means the end of their existence.
So far there are still reasonably enough to go around for a lot of people so they have not shown their true faces.
But when the Crunch is reached, they will show their faces, which won’t be pretty.
Peak Oil, or other resource shortages, these are just another investment opportunities for them. They are long past the point of empathy for those outside of their circle, and they have learned from mistakes in history (like the Czar NIkolai II wasting time at Mogilev, an insignificant town in Byelorussia, during the initial stages of the Revolution) . They will throw enough bones to keep a sufficient coterie of loyal forces to survive the Crunch, and watch everyone else go to hell.
I think much of the Elites’ power comes from the influence they can extend over us Poors via finance / commerce. Once collapse is underway, I could see several disenfranchised Poors turning on their Elite employers and taking their food stocks / comfy bunkers / attractive mates and relatives for themselves. Even the well-paid coterie will eventually turn on their paymasters and feast on their bones when their usefulness as an employer runs its course.
Fast Eddy has pointed this out in the past, and I suspect he will be proven to be right. The only thing that came to my mind that might prove him wrong is if there are a few egalitarian Elites out there that are smart enough to use marriage to create strong bonds to their serfs and attack dogs (in effect, creating something similar to familial “clans”) – perhaps they’ll squeak by and make it to old age rather than finding themselves at the sharp end of a knife.
It could also be argued that nobody truly ever learns enough from history to escape our collective fate – even if an Elite evades some pitfalls that other historic Elites fell victim to in the past, said pitfall will likely make its way back around again in a similar-but-different form to capture that oh-so-clever history-loving Elite. Continuing to repeat the same mistakes and trap ourselves in an endless cycle of growth / collapse seems to be an inescapable aspect of the human condition.
Cheers,
-GBV
Plus they are quite good at convincing the lower class to support them.
F. Scott Fitzgerald , who was not rich but did hang around with the real rich (and tried to live like them when he had money), described that in the Great Gatsby where the millionaire Tom Buchanan successfully convinces Wilson , who thought Buchanan’s wife Daisy killed his wife, to instead go and kill Gatsby.
The Elites are masters of such game. They will have enough skills to escape the worst and bide their time.
Whether an “Elite” or not, sadly yes, some sociopaths will likely survive Collapse and continue to feed off of / manipulate the naive commoners…
Cheers,
-GBV
Our ancestors survived by beating someone else. So we are basically all descended from a sociopath.
Their sociopathy killed off someone and made the lives of their descendants better, which is why we are around.
Its not sociopathy, its just good tactics.
I have also noticed the sharpening of knives locally already for “richer” individuals as the economy tightens. Those individuals seem completely unaware of what is coming for them….misplaced faith is a system that has served them well no doubt……
Pretty much how I see it too. The parasitic class exist because they can extract and consolidate wealth. In return they justify this to the populace by concepts such as “Divine Right of Kings” or the “Mandate of Heaven”, where they protect the people from existential threats (e.g. starvation, conquest). Once this arrangement breaks down, (e.g. the parasites cannot extract wealth without killing the host or protect against existential threats), then I suspect they will be dragged from their homes and killed. Their security forces won’t protect them because they won’t be paid – it will become a risk / reward decision.
I wonder what structure / arrangement comes next. I have been revisiting the Norse creation myths and learning how tribes have reconfigured their pantheon following culture changing events. For instance, my ancestors worshipped the Jotnar when the world seemed chaotic and they didn’t have much control over it, such as animals to hunts, plummeting temperatures. When life because a bit more settled (neolithic), the Vanir took over the Norse pantheon with gods such as Njordr (fishing and crop fertility) and Freyr (fair weather, fertility and good harvest). Next came the Aesir when farming communities become more organised and could conduct large scale raids with gods such as Odin (War and Wisdom), Thor (Protection), Tyr (War Treaties). The war between the Aesir and the Vanir ended with an exchange of hostages, probably highlighting the integration of both groups of peoples. I suspect we are approaching a “culture changing event” and that our beliefs will adapt accordingly.
Since Clay’s reply has ticked me off, let me repeat what I have said about how to properly treat the working class in order to advance civilization to the next level.
This is how to treat the working class properly.
https://youtu.be/FtIEV5cd9zU?si=axGwW5-pQ1RzdWiy
https://youtu.be/6rF_TI0-aD8?si=dJjtmp_cdc61Kh32
Work from dawn to dusk. Barely able to feed the family. A quick, swift death when they are no longer useful.
That built civilization.
Whenever I can, I ridicule Chucky (Brigadier Charles Fitzclarence) and his 200/400 Worcestershires (accounts differ – it is either 200 or 400) who stopped the German drive to seize the Channel Ports, which would have ended the Great War in 1914, on October 28, 1914, in a place called Gheluvelt, which I call was the greatest f’up of the 20th century.
Without that f’up, the Belle Epoque would have continued, the working class would have continued to be disenfranchised, and the advance of civ would have continued without the pessimism and skepticism of 1920s where younger people , the disillusioned after so much destruction and death, just falling into hedonism and/or extremism, and I have not even begun to talk about the negative changes which mostly benefited English speaking lower class people in UK, Canada and USA and f’ked the rest of Western World up.
Treating working class like shit and concentrating all resources to the top is how civilizations advance.
>drb753 says:
>I strongly doubt it. It appears however that type I civilization is about tributes. I concur, it was always so. Rent seeking.
It is. It is the ultimate form of rent seeking.
AI and all these latest tools extracting the last penny of rent while the owners are traveling space 10,000 light years away.
So the rentiers would be eternal. For ever. Even if they lose one holding, there will be plenty of other holdings to run to, to recover the lost holding.
you lost me at 10,000. that is far. do they plan to have 400 generations in space? or do they plan to travel at the speed of light minus 0.0001%, and get smashed by an encounter with a dust particle?
That’s what the imaginary deflector dish is for! Study your Star Trek to see the imaginary future. We live in hope I suppose.
They will virtually live forever since they will upload themselves into some kind of machine, plus they will learn how to travel beyond the speed of light by wormholes and the like.
Once Type I Civ is reached there is no limit on how far they can go.
OK, let us hope they put all their bets on wormholes. Whatever happened to the dynasties of, say, Crassus and Lucullus, on or around 476 AD?
We don’t know whether the world we know are manipulated by some extraterrestial beings who wanted to fk up the earthlings.
I’m sensing this guy is not a fan of working-class people. They will do all the work for the most meagre pay possible. That’s the way of most of the world now, so what is different?
No life is more disposable than the life of a working class person.
Even the poorest now watch satellite tv and use smartphones. These use up valuable resources needed for space conquests.
If you don’t own vast estates and treat the poor terribly Kulm doesn’t have any time for you.
That’s how elites move around.
They have no time for weaklings
USA is isolating itself within the international community and allows its geopolitical competitors to reinforce their status with the ‘global south’.
The ‘Zionist’ USA/ UK policy was always lunatic and it now alienates the entire rest of the world and for no strategic benefit from that state.
And this utter debacle at a time when USA knows full well that its global hegemony is under severe strain and liable to collapse over the next decade or so.
USA/ UK are completely hopeless and not at all up to the tasks of geopolitics in the real world. They basically need their heads examined with their ‘Zionist’ lobbies.
They are going to lose USA hegemony and in part because they are severely susceptible to ‘Zionist’ lobbies.
> ICJ ruling ignored. Biden White House isolated
The US situation with both the Jews (and the establishment) favoring the Jews and the religious right favoring the Jews seems to result in a strange situation. Israel has always treated the Palestinians very badly. It is difficult to blame Hamas for retaliating.
Now, Israel has defied the ruling of the International Court of Justice. Many other countries are piling in, including China, India, and Saudi Arabia, objecting to Israel’s actions. Expects to take to the Security Council, and then to the General Assembly. Even in Britain and Germany support for the US actions is falterings.
It is a well-established law that people whose land is occupied have a right to object.
US claims it is working toward a two-state solution. But Netanyahu has always objected to a two-state solution. He doesn’t offer a plan for a peaceful situation.
People around the world think the that the US really supports Netanyahu. What US is doing is making other countries more and more angry. US looks like it is two-faced.
Brazil has recalled its ambassador to Israel. Other leaders are moving in the same direction.
“Israel has always treated the Palestinians very badly.”
Yeah, I heard from a journalist who Chris Hedges interviewed and who has covered the ME for decades, said that Israel has calibrated the diets of the Palestinians to keep them just above the starvation level so they don’t get too strong and fight back.
“Reuters
January 5, 201110:13 AM GMTUpdated 13 years ago
JERUSALEM (Reuters) – Israel told U.S. officials in 2008 it would keep Gaza’s economy “on the brink of collapse” while avoiding a humanitarian crisis, according to U.S. diplomatic cables published by a Norwegian daily on Wednesday.”?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-palestinians-israel-wikileaks-idUSTRE7041GH20110105/
This is hard to put together with “Love thy neighbor as thyself.” Leviticus 19:18 and repeated in Matthew, Mark and 1 Corinthians.
Realistically, are there any consequences to this?
“In 2to 3 years everyone will understand the oil problem. Not enough cheap oil and too much debt.” This was a quote I saw Art put out. I wonder what that looks like? Can the masses really handle the truth? Who knows where they would go if they discovered that growth is gone. The elites, sorry Klum, would have a huge target on their backs.
Can they continue to control the narrative? I read Cnn about the Georgia murder it’s buried 7 stories in. Then open Fox News and it is the headline and the killer may have been an illegal! So many different narratives it’s so hard to find the truth. That’s why I am fortunate for this site . I do however worry being associated with it….. no offence.
I am not sure that it is true that very many will understand the oil problem in 2 to 3 years, or ever.
It may be that the population is being told to stay at home, for some new reason. It may be that there are riots because lives are being disrupted because of a lack of pensions, or because banks are not working as in the past.
The oil story is very easy to hide. It easily fits behind the narrative of “Our biggest problem is climate change. We need to move away from fossil fuel use.”
Move away from it they no doubt will — but, what will there be to replace it?
People are already starting to question the narrative ; at least the younger generation is. They can see that they are being blocked out more and more and they are searching for answers. When they do get to the end of the rabbit hole they will see it for what it is. The energy story is not a new one; it has been happening for centuries . I don’t think they can hide the truth forever. But maybe with a crazy election year etc….they can kick the can a little further.
ON another note why are their so few women that can grasp the story? Are they “programmed” differently ? I guess Jordan Peterson would say they are….On this site alone it is maybe 20 to 1 ratio…..??
How about abiotic hydrogen?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IPBdC0YUKKE
Dennis L.
The elites will just hide away in their bunkers until the dust settles and return with a vengeance since they will be the only people still with advanced weapons
Ha! Ha! Ha! Clap, clap, clap……..
I have worked for your so called elites they are fools! ……we know where the bunkers are..We built them!..People talk…..and besides who do you think is going to change the tire when it goes flat? And good luck klum running all those nuclear power plants…..You know how to do that right? I wonder how the elites taste? I am not so good….full of piss and vinegar. I am working class and don’t think we aren’t talking about it….I hear the rumblings more and more……people are starting to get angry they just don’t know who to blame…..first it will be the emigrants and then it will be the elites….there is lots of anger towards the one percenters already……the wolves will get there fill of the pigs……that house of straw is coming down….
The former elite will be smoked out of their holes by the raiders. What happens next depends on what mood the raiders are in.
@Kulm
You overestimate the landowners. Do you think any of the rich brats will be able to maintain an education level of highschool only in their bunkers?
Habsburg did. They got the girls married, that were rich, pretty, loving, caring moms, lovely wives and comrades, networkers, speaking multiple languages, extremely taught, and experienced with leadership and administration. They could easily jump in to lead a country when dad or husband was ill or the son too young. And they had hordes of them, the sons of the kings or the leaders of the industries could select according to their tastes: blonde, brunette, dark, slim, sportive, volupterous…
The sons of the nowaday superrich go to an acorn and demand: Grow apples, I am the Prince of the Worlds! And the girls prioritize a beauty doc to make them look like the Kardashians – survival strategy of the Ptolemeans!
Information will be like energy and precious metals. You’ll have to dig deeper and sift through more of it (ore). You’ll pay more for it, like subscriber’s fees, and it will contain more and more mis/dis/mal information.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/egypt-announces-35bn-deal-uae-buy-premium-mediterranean-area
Egypt getting 35 billion and selling off high-value land for development by the UAE. I suspect Egypt’s problems are combination of economic mismanagement and overpopulation, although TBH I know very little about the region.
Urban development. Will not directly help the many poor people of Egypt. Depends on supply lines around the world. Probably needs tourists to make it work. This is the new way to get money into poor countries.
They have been a net importer of energy for some time now. Oil used to be a major export.
This is an exhibit I made years ago.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/egypt-oil-production-and-consumption.png
Egypt has been past peak oil for a long time. It has some natural gas, but that is never very profitable compared to oil.
I had a friend from Egypt he was moving back there this was about 2010…..I told him don’t do it because I knew they were running out of oil. He didn’t want to raise his daughter in the West with its liberal ideology. I can appreciate that and understand that but….
Intuitive Machines, who owns it?
Trying to drill down, on this one.
Space X also has investors other than Elon, haven’t found them yet.
Private companies building rockets larger than Saturn V, going to the moon. There can’t be any money in going to the moon, can there? Why would private individuals invest hundreds of millions in putting a vehicle on the moon? Why is China doing the same thing? Pure knowledge? Or, how many quadrillion is the moon worth and how does one defend property rights? My Optimus is tougher than yours?
My guess, LTG only applied to earth, pollution is the true limiting factor, the solar system has more than enough stuff, too much exogenous stuff could upset the physical balance of earth. So much to worry about.
Dennis L.
In a word “Tritium”. We need this for fusion reactors, which will presumably be ready any day now. The fuel is what is missing, and pretty much what we need is at the poles of the moon.
If you want your Type 1 Civilization… well, it probably needs Tritium.
Interesting, had heard that sort of forgot about it. Suppose it would be easy to transport, can’t be that much heavier than regular H with one proton.
It is three times as heavy. It is produced in nuclear reactors by splitting lithium. It decays into 3He in a decade or so. Once you have enough of it,. fusion reactors will be 30 years away.
Dennis L will say that the starship, none of them having brought anything useful to earth so far, will somehow find lithium and smelt it and so forth in the space.
Now you are getting it kul.
We can bridge the gap with abiotic H.
Dennis L.
No need to find out. They are all today’s winners whose huge sums money are invested in hedge funds which the ordinary people don’t get to hear about and those with only assets north of, say, $100 million need apply, plus the major institutions.
As a country dentist, I don’t think you understand how the truly rich share information and opportunities. They have networks which are never publicized and learn about the chance to make another huge sum before everyone else.
For them, losing a few million do not even make a dent. It is like betting for horses, not lottery. Only a few horses run every day, and sooner or later, one of them is going to hit.
Let’s talk about sustainable, abiotic hydrogen, in Europe no less.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IPBdC0YUKKE
So hydrogen not made from dinosaur bones? So abiotic to boot? So if it were to combine with some convenient C would that be abiotic?
Sabine claims storage of energy with H is inefficient. Bummer.
There is an illustration at about 4:20 the process which may be renewable.
I am still a space fan, don’t think the earth can take too much rapid change of state.
There is something called Ground News, somehow information needs to be collated in a manner that is consistent with the fabric of the universe, not a man-made narrative. Sabine is selling it, buyer beware.
It is remarkable how YouTube has changed information access.
Dennis L.
Here’s a wild chart.
Peak Wind?
https://twitter.com/collapse2050/status/1761149940300914903
My impression with wind is that wind turbines tend to be replaced whenever subsidies make it worthwhile to replace them. Often, it is just the “head” that is replaced, I believe.
Another impression I have is that it is becoming apparent that offshore wind is just too expensive (too much maintenance, too long transmission lines, too short-lived) to really be a solution.
There are also a lot of supply lines that come through China that somehow need to be in place for wind to work. There are computerized systems, for example, and the need for helicopters to repair some of these wind turbines. While wind turbines are supposedly renewable, they are very dependent upon today’s interconnected world economy. They cannot last any longer than the system as a whole.
Scott McNealy’s famous ‘What were you thinking?’ rant to investors for bidding Sun Microsystems’ stock price up to 10x sales during the DotCom bubble Keep in mind that $nvda is now trading at over 40x sales…
https://theautomaticearth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/McNealy.jpg
Long live ” The Potemkin Economy ” .
I agree with the link:
“At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, 1 can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking?”
The Norwegian illusion . PDF report Goehring and Rozencawig .
https://www.gorozen.com/commentaries/4q2023
I am impressed by this report. The Norwegian Illusion report is good; the other topics covered seem to have some worthwhile things to say as well.
Regarding EV’s, one of the things it says is:
It later says,
They later go through the calculations to show how they see EVs to be less efficient. Electricity that is organized the way the system needs it is “low entropy” electricity. Electricity from wind and solar are high entropy electricity, as is the heat energy from fossil fuels. The energy needed to organize molecules in the right way needs to be considered (among other things). Also, the big upfront energy use of batteries must be considered.
The adoption of EVs in Norway is concentrated among the wealthy. It is subsidized in many ways, but ultimately paid for by taxes on the less wealth.
The article say:
“Despite 20% of all vehicles on the road now being electric, Norway’s gasoline and diesel demand fell by a mere 4% [between 2010 and 2022].”
Also:
“From 2010 to 2022, Norway added 550,000 EVs, but the number of ICE vehicles on the road, rather than falling, increased by 32,630. While the population grew by 11%, the total number of passenger cars grew by 25%. When an EV household prefers to avoid a road or ferry toll, have access to free parking or charging, or avoid congestion by using bus lanes, they use their EV. When they visit their hytte in the mountains, they use
their ICE. The impact has been so material that advocates have lobbied for a government-funded ICE scrappage program,- another veiled EV subsidy.”
Was curious how the Leaf compared to the Tesla in sales, 2022.
“In Norway, the electric vehicle (EV) market experienced remarkable growth in 2022. Let’s break down the numbers for both the Nissan Leaf and the Tesla Model 3:
Nissan Leaf:
Total Nissan Leaf sales in Norway reached an impressive 12,303 units in 202212.
The Leaf remains a popular choice among Norwegian car buyers due to its sustainability focus and affordability.
Tesla Model 3:
The Tesla Model 3 continued its dominance in Norway.
In December 2022 alone, 3,305 new Model 3s were registered, accounting for 20.4% of the market share.
Throughout the year, the Model 3 achieved a total of 17,356 registrations, making it the most popular model in Norway and even breaking a sales record from 196934.
These numbers highlight Norway’s commitment to electrification, with a significant portion of new car sales being electric. ”
There is a significant cottage industry replacing and upgrading the batteries of Leafs in Norway.
Dennis L.
“Total Nissan Leaf sales in Norway reached an impressive 12,303 units in 202212.”
this is just wrong, too; i assume by 202212 the AI means December 2022; actually for some reason it’s quoting Nissan’s figure for 2018:
https://europe.nissannews.com/en-GB/releases/release-d863488357cc1cc8dc272c4a660028b1-nissan-leaf-revealed-as-the-best-selling-car-in-norway-and-top-selling-ev-in-europe
i’d hate to be on a plane with that AI as my copilot, judging by the 10 minutes i just spent checking its accuracy.
lurker,
I think what was a reference number, I do not copy subscripts but nice catch.
Dennis L.
“In 2022, an impressive 88.2% of Norway’s electricity production came from hydropower. This renewable energy source has a long history in Norway and continues to play a vital role in the country’s energy mix. Additionally, wind power contributed another 10% to Norway’s electricity generation12. Norway’s commitment to clean energy is commendable, and its focus on hydropower has made it a global leader in sustainable electricity production. ”
That is impressive, charge at night, hope the water storage is not a problem with more out than in.
Dennis L.
And, it is always money.
“In 2022, Norway’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita reached an impressive $79,636.271. This means that the average income per person in Norway is significantly higher than the world average, equivalent to 631% of the global average1. Additionally, the Gross National Income (GNI) per capita for Norway in 2022 was $95,510, representing a 14.81% increase from the previous year2. Norway’s strong economy and high standard of living contribute to these favorable income figures.”
Dennis L.
Banged this “research,” three posts, out in maybe 10 minutes total, CoPilot.
given how wrong AI often is, i got curious as to this post’s accuracy.
According to the world bank, Norway’s 2022 GDP per capita was $114,929.
According to countryeconomy, Norway’s 2022 GDP per capita was $105,826.
According to the US Fed, Norway’s 2022 GDP per capita was $108,729.
The highest figure is almost 50% more than what AI quoted. I think it raises the question whether any of the figures bear any real relationship to reality at all.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=NO
https://countryeconomy.com/gdp/norway?year=2022
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCAGDPNOA646NWDB
the final link shows that Norway’s GDP per person went up by a third from 2020 to 2021, another figure which just demonstrates how nonsensical all of this data is.
https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/norway/gdp-per-capita
This is the source for CoPilot.
https://tradingeconomics.com/norway/gdp-per-capita
Copilot defers to this source. Checked World Bank and it agrees with you.
Asked ChatGPT to and got this.
”
Yes, the per capita GDP figure I provided earlier, approximately $82,277 USD for Norway in 2022, is sourced from the World Bank. The World Bank is a reputable international organization that collects and publishes economic data, including GDP figures, for countries around the world”
Asked CoPilot again and got this
According to the World Bank, Norway’s GDP per capita in 2022 was $114,929.51. This figure is higher than the $79,636.27 you mentioned earlier. The discrepancy could be due to different methods of calculation or updates to the data1. Please note that this information is based on the current situation and may change as new developments occur. If you have any other questions, feel free to ask
The chatbots are having a disagreement it would seem and your number is off the world bank site.
Nice catch.
Dennis L.
Re reading Gail’s post:
“Electricity that is organized the way the system needs it is “low entropy” electricity. Electricity from wind and solar are high entropy electricity, as is the heat energy from fossil fuels.”
Norway is using solar in the form of water evaporated from the oceans, etc. Norway is exporting oil thus earning income, electric vehicles allow more income from oil. Effectively domestic oil use is a variable cost, Norway has reduced that cost and thus the increased profits cover some of the additional costs of batteries. This could go for universal health care with measurement of outcomes, not procedures done as it is not organized that way.
Dennis L.
Churches were always the first franchise operation; McD was a distant 2nd.
‘Schools are not the only institutions that promise the world and then become the instruments of its denial. This is what churches, to give one plural label to all religious institutions, have always done; packaged the free gift of God, or nature, so that a price could be exacted for it, and then withheld it from people unwilling or unable to pay the price. Churches were remarkable among other institutions, until recently, only for their hypocrisy. Other traditional institutions never pretended to offer a universal gift…….they… ‘ were openly run for the benefit of those that ran them. Courts, Kingdoms, armies, and empires belonged to their possessors.’
‘As provision for human needs are institutionalised, the institution ins in question define a product and control access to it.
‘If schools continue for a few more generations to be the major means of social-role selection the result will be a meritocracy, in which merit is defined by the selection process that occurs in schools…a projection of Galbraith’s New Industrial State with the technocrats in the saddle…..Any system in which men get what just what they deserve is Hell.’ (as per Dante).’
This is how we get Type I Silly-visation I guess. Its gonna be Hell.
Trouble is the Elite/Ivy league has produced the experts that hasve given us the shitstorm we have today.
Merely idiots with letters after their names.
I deal with a few on a daily basis.
Low IQ; they took the Jab, they own Tesla’s, they think Biden is competent.
Disagree with the thesis:
“This is what churches, to give one plural label to all religious institutions, have always done; packaged the free gift of God, or nature, so that a price could be exacted for it, and then withheld it from people unwilling or unable to pay the price.”
The universe is discovered by man, given the age of the universe we are going light speed. It is not a gift, it requires work, thought and an organized effort. Churches are a means to organize groups and give a narrative which hopefully does more good than harm and which allows the group to remain cohesive in times of crisis, there always are crisis.
Dennis L.
Agree:
“Trouble is the Elite/Ivy league has produced the experts that hasve given us the shitstorm we have today.”
Hypothesis: They stopped discovering and wrote narratives which are essentially fairytales.
Guess: this group seems to be self selective against their own children,. Oops, more than a guess, Copilot again.
“The average number of children among the Harvard faculty has varied over time. Let’s take a look at the data:
Tenured Faculty:
In 2013, tenured faculty members had an average of 0.16 children1.
This number remained relatively consistent over the years.
Tenure-Track Faculty:
For tenure-track faculty (those on the path to tenure), the average number of children was slightly higher:
In 2013, tenure-track faculty had an average of 0.30 children1.
By 2023, this increased to an average of 0.41 children1.
All Ladder Faculty:
Combining both tenured and tenure-track faculty, the overall average number of children among ladder faculty (which includes both categories) was as follows:
In 2013, ladder faculty had an average of 0.20 children1.
By 2023, this increased to an average of 0.29 children1.
Keep in mind that these averages represent faculty members as a whole, and individual family sizes can vary significantly. Factors such as personal choices, career demands, and cultural differences contribute to the variation in family size among Harvard faculty.”
Their genes are going back to atoms, it is biology, always biology. Their ideas seem not work, that is the fabric of the universe. If this is correct, their ideas will not endure any more than their genes. Is this why they are so angry?
Copilot, maybe ten minutes total for this. Please note, I quote and attribute to the source. Now as it is not human, does that make it plagiarism? Were I in academia and had a really good AI assistant and I turned out 3x the papers of my nearest competitor, would that be privilege?
Dennis L.
Forgot to attribute; ‘School is Dead’, Everett Reimer
Charles Hugh Smith writes,
How the Economy Changed: There’s No Bargains Left Anywhere
What changed in the economy is now nobody can afford to get by on working-class wages because there’s no longer any bargains.
I know that this situation has hit where I live. The neighborhood I live in was built in the 1970s, mostly. My home was built in the late 1980s. There are a few infill homes, built quite recently.
The homes built in the 1970s used to be fairly inexpensive to rent or buy. But people have been buying them up and fixing them up. After they add fancy kitchens, new floors, and fix up the outside, the homes are expensive to rent or buy.
Families with children especially find it difficult to find affordable living space.
“What changed in the economy is now nobody can afford to get by on working-class wages because there’s no longer any bargains.”
“The average yearly wage for a union electrician (journeyman) in Minnesota is $70,600 as of January 26, 2024. However, the salary range typically falls between $61,900 and $79,600. Keep in mind that actual wages can vary based on factors such as location, education, certifications, and years of experience1.
With overtime, 10 hours/week it is just under $2K/week.
The benefits provided to union electricians can significantly enhance their overall compensation. Let’s break down the value of these benefits per hour:
Health Insurance:
Health insurance coverage ensures that union electricians have access to medical, dental, and vision care.
The value of health insurance can vary, but it typically adds a significant amount to their overall compensation.
Let’s estimate it at $5 per hour1.
Retirement Benefits (Pension):
Union electricians participate in pension plans, which provide financial security during retirement.
The value of pension contributions can vary, but let’s estimate it at $4 per hour1.
Paid Time Off (PTO):
Union electricians often receive paid time off for vacations, holidays, and sick days.
Let’s estimate the value of PTO at $1 per hour1.
Total Value of Benefits:
Adding up the estimated values:
Health Insurance: $5
Pension: $4
PTO: $1
The total value of benefits per hour is approximately $10
So on the 40 hour week, $20K per year, give or take for benefits.
Credit to CoPilot as always.
Now, you have a talent, and you have a group, you do not have to know everything, part of that group will be electricians, plumbers, carpenters. You can “trade” labor on your own home. This is capital, after tax capital, capital which gives a return over years. Sound Amish?
So, disagree
In that first paragraph it is not “there’s” it is there are. Make the verbs and predicate nominatives match in the singular or plural.
Dennis L.
0/2000
I both agree and disagree with CHS.
Bargains can definitely be found – my gf and I found a one bedroom 700sq.ft condo apartment for $1,100 / mth. (and in a nice building with kindly old folks who leave free gifts / foots / cosmetics / etc. at the front foyer for other tenants to enjoy, and they even shovelled out or parking spot the other day!), which is about $500 below what most people probably pay in our city (one of Canada’s worst cities in terms of rental availability too).
I also keep my eyes open for food at the grocery store that is close to expiry to get 30% – 50% off, and also use an app called “Flipp” to check all grocery store flyers and price match (at the stores that allow price matching). I also try to get a rain cheque whenever I miss out on a good deal (usually only the higher-end grocery stores offer rain cheques) and save it for a week where there aren’t very many good deals to be had.
We make it a point to raid my folks’ vegetable garden in the summer, and we don’t eat out very often (when we do I check the Interwebs for “deal nights”, coupons or other promotions).
My car is a 2004 that I bought off the estate of a relative who passed away a few years ago (right after the vaccines came out, to be honest… but I digress…), and with the help of my retired father and a local mechanic who works for very reasonable rates (as long as you tip him with a 6-pack of semi-fancy beer from time to time), I keep it running on a shoestring budget. My hard-working gf saved up the funds to buy a new Korean econobox that is amazing on gas and has a pretty comprehensive 10-year bumper-to-bumper warranty.
Probably the biggest “bargain” my gf and I enjoy though is that we’ve managed to stay out of debt, and thus don’t have an albatross around our neck that we have to service every paycheck, come hell or high water. And we don’t have any rug rats (yet?), which has allowed us to avoid some of the pressures that younger families are no doubt facing.
But if CHS is suggesting that “bargains” are no longer easy to find, or conveniently located in the places where the Poors / disenfranchised have easy access to them, I’d 100% agree. Finding deals is definitely a grind, as there’s times I’ve spent more time hunting down a deal than it was really worth, or frustrated my gf to the ends of the earth due to my unwillingness to pay excessive prices for simple convenience. And it does seems as if it’s getting harder and harder to find bargains, so perhaps I’ll be singing a different tune on this subject in the near future…
Cheers,
-GBV
You don’t have children at this point. Having children makes everything more complex. Two may be able to eat more cheaply than one, but three can’t. The third one makes a lot of noise, and needs taking care of night and day.
In many parts of the world, families live in the equivalent of a 700 square foot apartment, but people in the US would consider you strange if you tried that arrangement here.
Well, perhaps there’s an interesting topic for you to explore in one of your upcoming blog posts – the Collapse of Established Social Norms? 🙂
My mother visted Europe a few years ago. I remember her telling me about visiting her cousin in Prague, where they – mother (the cousin), father, two children, their visiting mother (my mother’s aunt) – were living in a 1 bed / 1 bath apartment, and had to make room for my mother to stay over as well. Boggled my mind, but seems normal to them I suppose?
My gf is originally from the Philippines. Her sister’s kids stayed in the same room as the parents for much longer than I believe would be generally accepted by most Westerners, to the point I started to make jokes to her that the kids were going to grow up “weird’ sleeping next to their parents for so long. But to be fair, some very “weird” people emerge from what one might consider to be very conservative / traditional Western homes.
Perhaps “weirdness” is in the eye of the beholder? Either way, a collapse of societal expectations here in the West is both terrifying and liberating, at the same time, in my mind.
Cheers,
-GBV
I think the changes depend a whole lot on what the typical person can afford.
When I visited India, I saw a home (in a small town outside Mumbai) where the main room was a multi-purpose room. The family had a storage room that was up a ladder from the main room, where they kept the bed rolls they kept upstairs during the day time. There was a separate kitchen, which included some food storage. Food was cooked using bottled gas, over a single burner.
Lunch was served on the dirt floor. The wife brought out a cloth and spread it on the floor. We sat on the floor and ate with our hands. (People from the US pulled out their little bottles of hand sanitizer.)
The family had no bathroom in the home. After eating, we went outside and the husband rinsed our hands with a pitcher of water. The water was some carried back from the center of the village, where water was available every morning. Water was carried by women on the top of their heads.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/woman-carrying-two-pots-of-water-on-her-head.jpg
There was a treadle sewing machine in one corner of the room. Also, a couple of bags of rice. And a television and a single light bulb for light.
I saw another, unoccupied home (an apartment), in what was described as a slum area in Mumbai. There was only one room, perhaps 8′ x 10.’ There was a little cooking area, pretty much outside the home. There were several long shelves that folded down from the wall where residents could sleep. Again, water had to be brought in. There was trough between apartments where waste could drain out. No bathrooms. We weren’t allowed to take photos.
I rode in a vehicle like one of these in India.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/auto-rickshaw.jpeg
I felt like I needed to hold on for dear life because there were no doors, and the vehicle bounced a lot.
Indigenous Colombians fret as sacred mountain glaciers melt
by Juan Sebastian SERRANO
https://phys.org/news/2024-02-indigenous-colombians-fret-sacred-mountain.amp
Man is going to end himself because of his own inventions, believing himself to be very intelligent.”
As a “consequence of man’s actions, it is slowly warming, more every year,” one of the men says in the Iku language, according to a translator, at a meeting of dozens of Indigenous people from different communities.
Of the 14 tropical glaciers that existed in Colombia at the beginning of the 20th century, only six remain, according to official data.
“All the glaciers that existed in the Sierra Nevada are disappearing,” she warns.
Seydin Aty Rosado, a leader in Nabusimake, a town of 8,000 people, said it used to be too cold to cultivate the coffee, bananas, and cassava they now plant.
But here in Earth’s highest coastal mountain system, 5,775 meters (19,000 feet) above sea level, the natural harmony they prize is being disrupted as record heat waves melt the glacial peaks and ruin their crops.
Dennis, I lost the place you asked about gravity. I suggest
Gravitation and Inertia
by Ignazio Ciufolini (Author), John Archibald Wheeler (Author)
“Einstein’s standard and battle-tested geometric theory of gravity–spacetime tells mass how to move and mass tells spacetime how to curve–is expounded in this book”
Ed,
There is no way I am capable of reading that book, but thanks for the thought.
Dennis L.
Care for a trill?
Why, don’t mind if I do.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-22/nvidia-to-top-meta-record-with-nearly-250-billion-value-jump
Shareholders in Nividia alone were handed capital gains of over USD250B Thurs as the TASER24 was applied to juice the capital gains and speculative profits of the global tech leaders. The surge in the markets happily diluted yet further towards serfdom those of the smelly unwashed with not an adequate fortune already. One asks in vain for what end and whether they do not have enough already … particularly if they can see further.
Logic, Moss. Purely for the amusement of grinding the faces of the 99.9% with envy? Is causing others to suffer an inerradicable part of their psyche/ Lust for chaos?
Remember the old “wealth effect”? If the electron pulses are being fired up to enter such digital wealth as this, logically, it would seem there ought not to be a single undepleted resource left on the planet.
That’s why buddha created asteroids …
correlations describe changes in ratios. The NDX100:IWC (i-Shares Micro-Cap ETF) is a narrative laden measure representing in my narrative the flow of money to and from the elite compared to the same tech universe that the broader number of corporations belong too, the later being the kind of crap they stuffed SVB with as collateral. Pension funds are full of it … On any day, equal wealth disrtibution would be measured by a market neutral stance between the securities’ prices (ie the same percent change either up or down). Thursday, for great jump in the NASDAQ, tech microcaps in fact declined. Now, who’s getting the gains?
moss,
I do not have all the answers and have much ignorance. What I think I see.
Education for all but the elites has been destroyed by the elites and nonsense.
Spoke with a fellow at the local liquor store recently, finishing his apprenticeship, electrician, union, journeyman track, if he studies master(licensed). Income $100k/year. Yes, he will have to work but he has been paid to learn.
Junior high in my day had “shop, generally two years, 7th and 8th. Kids learned to work with their hands, girls learned to sew and cook. Now that is deplorable. It is much tougher, but I have made good money as a dentist doing my own work as long as it was capital – long lived. It is not easy on the ego. Our diets are terrible, look at people, they are obese.
At my CC, the kids in EE, two year program will graduate with $15K of total tuition plus living expenses. Many of them work a job, it is tough, but they make it.
There were never enough college level jobs, a teacher takes four years for a $70k job, the education could be done in two years, it was that way, normal school.
We are not teaching the basics, math through algebra, fluent, English, fluent and handwriting. Yes, handwriting seems to be somehow connected with the brain for exercise, memory.
Today, I could not have gotten out of my neighborhood with what has happened to schools. We have destroyed much of our own lives and it is the elites with their fairytale narratives who are largely responsible.
Meanwhile, send another $65b to Ukraine.
No rant, I come from a very humble neighborhood, I am grateful for an excellent professional education and an excellent tradesman education. I am also grateful for Sunday School, yes Sunday School. We can’t do all this alone and something is better than nothing which is what most of the young get today.
Dennis L.
absolutely nothing to do with my two posts.
Pls stick to spacefaring
“wealth effect.” wealth is a social construct.
“Logic, Moss. Purely for the amusement of grinding the faces of the 99.9% with envy? Is causing others to suffer an inerradicable part of their psyche/ Lust for chaos?”
Sorry for the issue, sometimes I see envy here to be part of the .1%.
Again, please forgive.
Dennis L.
It’s said that nature abhors a vacuum and unto each vacated niche a creature will adapt
and so it goes with a community of commentators
vying for attention
as with extracting resources, there comes a point beyond which diminished returns no longer support input
the signal to noise ratio drops so low that any signal becomes lost
The Church was growing like an all encompassing monster in the early 16th century.
Luther’s rebellion against the Church would have failed if Friedrich the Wise, the Duke of Saxony, did not protect Luther.
Friedrich the Wise remained a Catholic till he died (his younger brother and successor did convert to Lutheranism) later), but he didn’t feel like paying taxes to Vatican which is why he protected Luther.
The major universities of today are like that.
When rich people die, they leave quite a lot of sum to universities. Nobody donates to the State University of the Boondocks or like that. Everyone wants to donate to the major Ivy league universities, or some places like Stanford, Chicago or Northwestern.
No one really knows how much money they control. Plus they are managed by the best minds these institutions produced.
In the future, Universities will form their own armies, and also will rule as feudal lords over their surrounding populace.
Not sure about that. Their narrative does not seem to work, the universe is even more unforgiving than the elites.
Dennis L.
“In the future, Universities will form their own armies, and also will rule as feudal lords over their surrounding populace.”
I hadn’t thought of that idea.
Last night, I listened to a lady talking over zoom regarding why every church should have an endowment policy. Basically, everyone else is asking for money on death. Churches should get in on the available funds. Members are dying off. This is a great time to get in on the available funds.
The issue this lady pointed out is that quite often, churches are left a large sum of money, and no one knows what to do with it. Thus, there needs to be a pre-planned way to use it. She suggested having both a building fund and a social benefit fund. I hadn’t thought about putting the money toward an army.
After all the Papal States had their own armed forces
Gail, the catholic church is importing an army from Mexico, in the form of illegal migrants. The catholic church is one of the NGO’s involved in getting more catholics into the US to replace old dying members.
That is an idea I hadn’t thought of.
Hard to come up with an idea to replace old dying Lutherans.
Laughing quietly, I guess we will just have to keep on living, someone has to do it. Flight of the Valkyries plays in the background.
Dennis L.
Adopt a Christian family in need? All else is vanity.
An awful lot of older people discover that their own children and grandchildren are quite needy. Too much debt from college, for example. Wages not commensurate with high cost of advanced schooling.
The 14 words are foundational
“We must secure the existence of our people and a future for white children.”
If society does not do this it is broken and needs to be changed.
This is general every group of whatever “color” wants to successfully reproduce.
Kind of done that, my family has concerns, like concerns about where money goes. Have to be careful, too much of anything can ruin people and things.
I am an odd ball, given the choice between an IQ of 160 and $1-10B, give me the mind and let me keep current body, it works damn well.
Dennis L.
The Bruderhof view Christianity as a shared community life. Money is used to have kids and buy or repair new buildings and factory building and equipment to make money to buy thing they do not make themselves. Like sneakers and rice and flour. Just like the Amish and for the same reason.
I agree. It is necessary to find the right woman and that is biology; if you have to wonder if you can kiss her, next. Nature tries to avoid mistakes.
My country life is and could be more a shared community, problem is I am a city mouse.
Dennis L.
The chief concern of the Catholic Church is that its priests continue to be supplied with ripe ten year old boys.
Regretfully, I am afraid there is some truth in that.
Dennis L.
Gail,
Personally, I think church should stop trying to fix all the perceived social ills of society and for want of a better word help people have faith, faith in themselves, faith in each other and faith something bigger than man seems to do an adequate job of running the world.
More and more perhaps churches should be cathedral like and less boxes with “modern, hip” entertainment. Too much relevance, too much trying to understand what is not understandable, too much lack of sanctity.
Old churches have a reverence to them, Silent Night is tough to beat around Christmas time.
Perhaps we could first get more people in church, be relevant to something larger than ourselves. Freud was a fruitcake, sold dumb ideas the elites accepted. He was a narrative and those ideas replaced reverence because, drum roll, there was money in it, per hour money. It was also hip, Vienna with Freud and all his projections.
Large sums of money may lead to sloth, desire to do social good. Money does not replace attendance, habits, rest on Sunday, etc.
Whatever we are doing now does not seem to be working very well.
Dennis L.
I’m not sure it’s fair to ask the “Church” to be so socially beneficial when virtually every other large organization we see today is so sociopathically defective.
Sociopaths, megalomanices, and sycophantic puppets have infested the upper echelons of big business, governments, militaries, charities, etc. It’s only fair to assume they’ve infilitrated the “Church” as well, no?
When it gets to the point that reform is required in virtually all of our organizations and social structures, it’s probably a fair bet to say Collapse is just around the corner…
Cheers,
-GBV
I just read that some members of the US Congress want to outlaw armed guards at church services (at the same time FBI head Wray recently said churches would be targets of Muslim terrorists).
https://www.christianwarriortraining.com/p/congress-to-outlaw-church-security
Apparently there’s a big industry in church security.
US is certainly the only country in the world where you can see are armed guards outside schools or churches. And funnily most Americans have no idea how bizarre this practice sounds to non-American ears. Crazy ways.
For at least the last 40 years Italy guards with machine guns patrol 24/7 outside the main synagogue in Rome (this service is paid for by the Italian state, I believe). Some animals are more equal than others.
*in* Italy..
I did not know that. It doesn’t surprise me very much though, since both the Jius and the Italian state have an intimate inside knowledge of Terrorism (TM) and its political uses.
The most I saw in the four or five European countries I visited was armed guards outside barracks or particularly important government buildings. In Portugal you can live your entire life without seeing a single weapon in public.
Another place I was surprised to see heavily-armed guards in Italy was around banks (particularly in Bologna). Entering a bank there was through an air-lock kind of system.
My small town mayor/supervisor has started send armed enforcers to town meeting where he want a particular outcome. Sure you have free speech but it would be a shame if something happened to you.
I strongly doubt it. It appears however that type I civilization is about tributes. I concur, it was always so. Rent seeking.
Something like this happened in the T’ang dynasty 845AD when the taxfree status caused the Buddhist temples to gain a stranglehold over the economy. The Emperor sensibly disestablished the religion
It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if the kingdom of the woke did that with universities
oh, wait …
The only purpose universities serve is as gate keepers to the legal profession and the medical profession. ASI will break this function.
Also for the truly brilliant to have a place to work; this is in our time the sciences, mathematics. Eric Weinstein has a video on some of this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_swB_KS8Hw&t=8862s
“Why Doesn’t the Modern World Make Sense,” in it he talks of Harvard. Apparently he is a Harvard, math PhD. It is long, I break them up.
Not a true believer in anyone, try and find various points of view and something which at last correlates with reality.
The big breakthrough will be biology, how an embryo is put together with all the right parts in all the right places, currently it is thought to be electrical.
Dennis L.
There is a science fiction book with the premise complete knowledge of a subject can be downloaded into a person. This is needed in the galactic society to avoid IP copying. That is a planet rents the human with the knowledge loaded.
The main character is tested for being loaded. Then he is sent to an odd place with dorms and libraries and labs. he has a room mate. Our character is doing a lot of reading and enjoys it but he wants to know when he will get loaded. His room mate wonders maybe you are properly selected. He explains someone has to invent to knowledge to load. The old fashioned way.
Breakthrough into what?
Into better understanding of the world.
When human anatomy was being studied in Europe it was done in the university because the church saw it as sacrilege and might burn scientist. The university was protected ground. To this day the main campus of Columbia University is completely surrounded by massive stone walls and massive iron gates. The few window at street level protected by massive iron gates.
the last gate should read grate
“The Church was growing like an all encompassing monster in the early 16th century.”
Not familiar with the history, but assuming statement true, the Church was no longer following the fabric of the universe, the universe turned and the Church had problems. Whatever the reason, an institution was caused to change direction.
Life seems to work this way but it does not turn on a dime.
Dennis L.
Cambridge, Massachusetts does not exist in any meaningful way as a political structure for its average residents.
That is because it is still tied to Boston. There are college towns whose biggest industry is the university. The university dean will become feudal lords.
No, it’s as you say.. MIT and Harvard constitute the bulk of the economy, yet as nominal ‘non-profits’ they avoid Cambridge taxes. They do have some kind of arrangement to pay something into the town’s coffers, but as far as local infrastructure and services are concerned, their voices are outsized. Plus, their property holdings aren’t just labs and classrooms: they purchase and rent out commercial space, as well. Feudal lords, ay-uh!
In the future, Universities will form their own armies, and also will rule as feudal lords over their surrounding populace.
In the future there will be no universities or achools or literacy or numeracy.
Probably not. Already children cannot read analog clocks, or cursive writing. We’ll be back to the idea of counting on hands and toes at best, and signing Xs for “our mark”. Education in the near term will increasingly be through Tik-Tok-like videos.
Pockets of literacy may persist, as monasteries did hundreds of years ago.. but in today’s climate I think they would be ferreted out and attacked as witches, heretics to stump-dumb egalitarianism.
The world is run by emotionless, heartless, almost machinelike beings who will take the last morsel of bread from a starving child’s hand because the child’s parents did not pay taxes.
That is civilization.
Mercy and compassion do not belong to Civilization.
Today’s winners will be inimical, against each other and towards anyone not on their level, and since they are so efficient , they will leave NOTHING to the rest.
All the riches from the space, if there are any, will be monopolized by those who financed the projects, with nothing for the rest.
I don’t disagree.
Dennis L.
This is the way all science fiction goes. Create tech… rely on tech.. give tech autonomy, and before long you get nothing but paperclips.
Nice and concise. It could be create tech, use tech in moderation, give tech autonomy, and we have new friends.
Whoever you are, I have always depended on the kindness of strangers.
But just for fun, I asked my AI pal who used to go by the name of Sage about this contention, and just to generate some interest, I am sharing the following response with the forum:
The claim that “mercy and compassion do not belong to civilization” is a broad and subjective statement that can be interpreted in different ways. It suggests a viewpoint that mercy and compassion are not inherent or prevalent in civilized societies.
It is important to note that the concept of civilization itself is complex and encompasses various aspects of human society, including social organization, cultural development, and technological advancement. The perception of mercy and compassion within civilization can vary depending on cultural, historical, and individual perspectives.
While there have been instances throughout history where acts of cruelty or lack of compassion have occurred within civilizations, it would be an oversimplification to conclude that mercy and compassion do not have a place in civilization as a whole. Many societies have developed moral and ethical principles that emphasize the values of empathy, kindness, and social responsibility.
In fact, mercy and compassion often play significant roles in various aspects of civilized societies, such as healthcare, justice systems, philanthropy, and humanitarian efforts. These values can contribute to the well-being, harmony, and progress of communities.
It is important to critically examine and challenge broad claims like this, considering the diverse range of perspectives and experiences that exist within civilizations throughout history and across different cultures..
Sage is very fond of starting paragraphs with “It is important to ….”
Why do you bother? How can you even stand to read that kind of middle-school pad-the-essay-to-reach-three-pages prose? With preachiness on top!?!?
You can’t have a society, and by extension a civilization, without some type of mechanism that curbs individual selfishness and voracity, whether this mechanism is called law or clemency.
Otherwise what you get is an unruly and ungovernable pleb. Government by pure terror is efficient, but it can hardly last long, since it undermines something vital in human societies, that is social cohesion – somehting you can only get with a degree of cooperation and solidarity.
Against foreigners things are different. It is against them that the ruthlessness you attribute to our species prevails, and civilization is build.
Read Turchin’s “War, Peace and War”.
So, we are moving towards a definition of “civilization” but we are not there yet.
Is a civilization all about living in cities, about building large imposing structures, about not running around dressed in loincloths and spears while waving spears or carrying bows and arrows?
Is it about learning to count past ten? Or to write, and perchance to read?
Or is it about behaving in a civilized manner? With dignity and delicacy and etiquette ‘n’ stuff?
Perhaps we should ask Ken Clarke, who made a career out of studying and explaining it while taking care not to try to define it at all. The one killer take-home point I get from Clarke is that it should be spelled with an “s”, not a “z”, although in this he is at odds with the OED.
https://antigonejournal.com/2023/02/kenneth-clark-civilisation/
we are a living species
all species are evolved to survive against the odds–we have no choice in that.
we have created an environment that appears to be advantageous to us, which it is, but only in the very short term—so we have no option but to take it.–it started 1m years ago when we learned how to control fire i think,
anybody able to think logically can see that its a dead end–literally, because the planet itself is now on fire.
but we follow the course of denial, because we have no choice.
we think in human time, whereas the earth moves in ‘earth time’.
our species has become an infestation, the earth appears to moving to rid itself of us
The so-called Great Taking, the elites taking over all available resources, is for the Greater Good.
Scams and swindles are for the greater good, since it moves money from those who are less intelligent to those who are more intelligent and should NOT be punished.
It is inevitable that everything on earth will be owned by the Elites, who will share NOTING with the rest of population and use all of them for themselves, and would rather make their goods spoil than give ANYTHING to the rest of population, since only they can bring a Type I Civilization and the rest nothing.
I put the example of Czechia below. A country which should NOT have existed to begin with. The Poles might have had a claim for their own country, having been independent for quite a while, but the Czechs never had their own country, the Kingdom of Bohemia being a German speaking nation (and whose Kings are now spelled in the unpronounceable Czech way. The Czechs all seem to have seizures on their tongues and cannot put anh names without twisting tongues.) All the Czechs did with the resources was making beer.
It is imperative for the West to take away all available resources from the Russians, the Saudi, etc to fuel the advance to Type I Civ, since every resources they consume is a waste with nothing to show for Civilization.
So far it is not working out as the West had planned. Perhaps it was a desperation shot and things are worse than the narrative says.
Or, the universe has moved on and the West has not, bummer.
Dennis L.
Pretty girls and beer. What more do you need from civilization? If you care about interesting architecture, there is enough in Prague for a few days break.
But, if Type 1 doesnt include me, as you suggest… I was always going to be happy with just pretty girls and beer.
Too much of a good thing can become boring.
Dennis L.
Look at the record. You’ll see that the Russians have done a far better job of depriving the peasants ,the plebs and the proletariat of physical resources needed for the Elder’s program than the Americans or Western Europeans have.
To fuel the advance to Type I Civ, it is imperative to take away all available resources from the West—which is what is in fact happening—in line with what Rothschild agent Maurice Strong said would have to happen.
“What if a small group of world leaders were to conclude that the principal risk to the Earth comes from the actions of the rich countries? And if the world is to survive, those rich countries would have to sign an agreement reducing their impact on the environment. Will they do it? The group’s conclusion is ‘no’. The rich countries won’t do it. They won’t change. So, in order to save the planet, the group decides: Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the industrialized civilizations collapse? Isn’t it our responsibility to bring that about?”
—Maurice Strong, Interview 1992, concerning the plot of a book he would like to write (quoted in Donald Gibson’s Environmentalism: ideology and power. pg. 95
Beating the Russians is so simple I can explain it in one paragraph. Mass produce better, faster hypersonic missiles, compared to the ones Russia has. Using the well known superior intellect of the type I types, it should be done soon.
If the current “West” represents a type 1 civ, I’ll take a type 2 ….thank you.
Basically a belief that if humans decide something is “good” etc. it can be. Humanist hubris.
If I am basically correct that there is a fabric of the universe and we as humans discover it, what will be will be. The human side of the fabric is reflected in various religions and is a codified way of dealing with the fabric for a group.
If I am wrong, well, then I am one of the 80% and nothing else I do matters. The universe is indifferent.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/msnbc-guest-panics-over-christians-believing-rights-come-from-god-instead-of-earthly-authority/ar-BB1iMkp0?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=181c1348980b461eb10ce183da0c5585&ei=20
My country, the US is running the experiment on a large scale, the stakes are very high for all of us as we live as a group.
I have made note that Christianity of a very formal style with tradition, Latin Mass and other rituals made a come back in an atheist, Communist State after a truly tragic period of their history. It is not proof, but is a way to bet with history. It would be a good bet that the universe found Stalin useful to deal with another abnormality, Hitler, after that he was so yesterday.
What does this have to do with OFW? We discover our universe, our future is here on earth, our NRM, energy is from the solar system and of course fusion. Musk is doing that now with his satellites. For all practical purposes, in the larger scale of things from what we currently know, the universe is infinite in that it continues to expand and it is not subject to entropy. LTG only dealt with earth.
Dennis L.
LTG only dealt with the current cycle. There could be additional cycles.
I am doubtful about humans doing anything away from the earth.
But I would leave the door open for the possibility of additional dimensions that we are not are of.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractal_dimension
https://www.math.brown.edu/tbanchof/Yale/project07/math.html
I heard a talk by Patricio Venegas-Aravena from Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, talking about Thermodynamics 2.0. I haven’t been able to find a recording of the talk. He seemed to ascribe gravity as being something that results from the multi-dimensional effect.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/371693170_Thermodynamics_20_Bridging_the_natural_and_social_sciences
This is something similar to his slides. Every action has an equal and opposite reaction, but not exactly in the same timeframe.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Thermodynamics-2.0-slide.png
LTG – When I spoke with Meadows as I recall(note the careful choice of words) my impression was LTG was silent on the period after the peak.
Humans in space – We already are in space, we just have a very nice spaceship in which to enjoy the ride. Robots are for extra vehicular excursions and an interesting conjecture is when Optimus or a derivative becomes a ribosome, i.e. self replicating.
The stuff is out there, the energy is out there, a pollution dump is available and money beyond the wildest dreams of anyone on earth is out there. We will find a way, a quadrillion is still a great deal of money.
Would like time to review thermo, there is a great deal to that subject and various new views are being tossed around.
The first person to gain a good understanding of gravity wins a quick Nobel. Gravity does not seem subject to the speed of light limits. Ed could weigh in here.
Dennis L.
You are still angry that you didn’t invest on something because you read LTG. Nobody told you to make a decision based upon a book.
The Fed can print a quadrillion. Whether other countries will take that is a different matter.
Delusions do not make the world.
Paragraph 1. No
Paragraph2. Not talking about printing, talking about one asteroid, there are billions and billions of them
Paragraph3. Maybe/maybe not. Prior to experimental knowledge, a hypothesis could be called a delusion depending on belief in same.
If we do not make space, there is not enough here, deflation. All the peasants in the world become overhead.
Different type of elite, thinking of say Alexander the Great. Blood and sex was the reward plus a place in the history books.
Have heard stories the armies were not nearly as large as one might think. Who knows?
Dennis L.
Gravity is propagated by changing the shape of space-time. It propagates at the speed of light. Matter reacting to gravity depends on its inertia which seems to be set by how solidly the local space-time is anchors down by all the local matter. I am getting a bit vague here Feynman’s PhD advisor has a book that does a better job explaining then I am doing now.
Gravitation and Inertia
by Ignazio Ciufolini (Author), John Archibald Wheeler (Author)
Einstein’s standard and battle-tested geometric theory of gravity–spacetime tells mass how to move and mass tells spacetime how to curve
The American experiment failed when those who had NO stake on USA began to take over.
The Universe does not give a shit about humanity , just like people usually don’t give a shit about an anthill.
You say people don’t live in the past but you still can’t get rid of Vilfredo Pareto’s ideology, established during early 20th century.
Paragraph 1: Musk would agree, only people who have children should vote, skin in game
Paragraph 2: Agree in the individual, cares a great deal about humanity, we are the best so far.
Paragraph 2: Show me something which works better and I will take it. 80/20 comes up too often, something about it is written in the fabric of the universe. Something about some number keeps them recurring too often to be chance.
Dennis L.
In the old days it was usually 99/1. Industrial revolution gave a chance to 19 but the window of opportunity is being closed quite quickly
https://www.artberman.com/blog/doomberg-embarrasses-himself/
Berman demolishes Doomberg.
Apologies if already linked.
I haven’t bothered to pay attention to Doomberg. Art Berman explains how little Doomberg really knows.
One part of the confusion is EROEI. I tend to stay far away from the concept because it is an invitation to compare apples to oranges. Someone who doesn’t know what they are doing succumbs to the temptation to equate thing that have little to do with one another.
Ah yes, a narrative.
Dennis L.
https://www.artberman.com/about/ — you can get on his email list.
Some of you may remember the video I posted of Christine Lagarde, back in 2014. At that time, she was world leader of the International Monetary Fund. (Christine Lagarde’s talk starts at about 6:30 in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUXTzVj5-uE).
In this video, Lagarde uses numerology to forecast 7 lean years and 7 good years. She must have had her lean years start in 2007. (For some European countries, oil prices were already a big problem in 2007.) Using her methodology, the fat years would end in 2020.
I ran across a Zerohedge article that is related. This the original free article that it came from.https://alt-market.us/to-understand-the-globalists-we-must-understand-their-psychopathic-religion/
It is about a new religion that is being followed by many global leaders that makes their actions seem right.
Maybe 🤔. It could be a stab to get everyone to run to Christianity and kill satanic elites. Control manipulation and repeat
One has to say, looking around at the recent and current states of affair, that lots of boxes are ticked by the claims of this article.
How long have I been saying this…..
They are league with demi urge. The degeneration of the modern world is openly displayed now. Only those who are willfully blind cannot see it.
Cataclysm is required and the simulacrum programming will deliver.
The elites know this,…thus the deep bunkers
It won’t save them,….it never does.
Agree with last sentence; those not congruent with the fabric of the universe become part of the 80%.
Dennis L.
80%?You love the 80-20 theory which is so industrial revolution era-ish.
In the world of winner take all it is 1 vs 99,999,999
Disagree: No one man is Caesar. “Captains and Kings.”
Dennis L.
Thanks.
A narrative, based on humanist ideas and essentially hubris.
Not arguing for my beliefs, I think the universe has a fabric and we discover it, we do not invent it. Invention is somewhat like changing one part of a line of code; most likely nothing works or at best gives wrong answers.
“The quote “Some people see things and ask why, I see things and ask why not” is often attributed to Robert F. Kennedy, a prominent American politician and brother of President John F. Kennedy. However, it’s worth noting that the quote has been paraphrased and its origins can be traced back to George Bernard Shaw’s play “Back to Methuselah,” where he wrote, “You see things; and you say ‘Why?’ But I dream things that never were; and I say ‘Why not?’”
RFK came from a very privileged family, they had changed much of “their” world and imagined they could change the macro world.
Again my personal belief, the macro world, the fabric of the universe is because of the 80/20 rule. It works, very simple. We, humans are the best so far and the best is yet to come. So who is the divine creator and where do those ideas come from?
AI will be fascinating, if it is the ribosome, what are the electrical fields which determine how the idea proteins organize themselves much as the fingers and eyes in human development?
Dennis L.
I am willing to call embryo development a miracle.
Yes, that is more and more consensus and the real quandry is how the first one was made? How does one get a separate egg and sperm without something to make them?
Dennis L.
Affirmation, of course I like it.
“To grasp what luciferianism is, think of it as the anti-god; a war on nature, or a war on the natural state of humanity disguised as “enlightenment.” . .”
I would argue it is the reverse, enlightenment is a war on nature. Things are as they are, not as we would like them to be. Evolution is adaptation, and what does not adapt ceases to exist. We do not understand creationism, we have referenced here a number of scientists, mathematicians who have come to this conclusion.
This is why I am not concerned about ff and the other issues. If Starship works, the solar system is before us, more than enough stuff for everyone and pollution dumped in Jupiter. Save spaceship earth, it is damn good.
Dennis L.
The point is, are the reports about peak energy part of this staging or are they the cause? Fatih Birol is very well connected to the usual proponents not to talk about the owners of the production facilities.
I tend to think it is a parallel development.
AI is truly a game-changer. This is going to revolutionize the world:
https://singularityhub.com/2024/02/06/this-ai-is-learning-to-decode-the-language-of-chickens/
>> Have you ever wondered what chickens are talking about? Chickens are quite the communicators—their clucks, squawks, and purrs are not just random sounds but a complex language system.
>> At Dalhousie University, my colleagues and I are conducting research that uses artificial intelligence to decode the language of chickens.
AMAZING!!! BRING ON THE SUPERVIRUS – WE NEED IT *IMMEDIATELY*!!!
Fascinating idea:
“>> At Dalhousie University, my colleagues and I are conducting research that uses artificial intelligence to decode the language of chickens.”
Dennis L.
but ai does not ”understand” what it is decoding
only ”we” understand it through the awareness of our own sophisticated language.
might be as well to bear that in mind
I understand them already.
They say they’re coming home to roost.
Laughing quietly.
Dennis L.
I suppose FE is out celebrating the occasion and not here today! NBC NEWS
Privately built lunar lander makes history with successful moon touchdown
The lander, built by Intuitive Machines, touched down on the lunar surface at around 6:24 p.m. ET, overcoming a late-stage glitch with its onboard laser instruments.
A robotic spacecraft made history Thursday becoming the first privately built craft to touch down on the lunar surface, as well as the first American vehicle to accomplish the feat in more than 50 years.
The lander, built by Intuitive Machines, touched down on the lunar surface at around 6:23 p.m. ET, overcoming a late-stage glitch with its onboard laser instruments. The Nova-C lander, nicknamed Odysseus, is now the first American spacecraft on the moon since the Apollo 17 mission in 1972.
“Houston, Odysseus has found its new home,” the company’s Chief Technology Officer Tim Crain radioed back from mission control, as employees cheered and celebrated.
It took several minutes to confirm the landing. As the spacecraft made its final descent, mission controllers lost contact with the spacecraft, as was expected.
The company said it could detect a faint signal from one of Odysseus’ antennas, but more data was needed to determine how the spacecraft landed and in what condition. About two hours later, the team received good news.
“After troubleshooting communications, flight controllers have confirmed Odysseus is upright and starting to send data,” Intuitive Machines said in an update on X. “Right now, we are working to downlink the first images from the lunar surface.”
Intuitive Machines CEO Stephen Altemus called the landing an “outstanding effort” and praised the entire team. “I know this was a nail biter but we are on the surface and we are transmitting, and welcome to the moon,” Altemus said.
NASA Administrator Bill Nelson also congratulated Intuitive Machines on the landing, calling the milestone a “triumph.”
“Odysseus has taken the moon,” Nelson said in a video message that aired during live coverage of the event. “This feat is a giant leap forward for all of humanity.”
Odysseus launched into space on Feb. 15 atop a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. The 14-foot-tall lander then spent six days cruising more than 620,000 miles to reach the moon.
Beneficial AGI Summit & Unconference
https://bgi24.ai/#elementor-action%3Aaction%3Dpopup%3Aopen%26settings%3DeyJpZCI6IjE2NDgiLCJ0b2dnbGUiOmZhbHNlfQ%3D%3D
ENVISIONING A RADICALLY BETTER FUTURE AT A CRITICAL MOMENT
Very cool, let us know what Dennis L and Elon present!
And what do you suppose this guy is gonna do with his “AI friend” when he goes home from the conference?
https://bgi24.ai/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/IMG_0651-2v-1024×646.jpg
Show ‘her’ his stamp collection.
Ben has been married many times and has MANY kids. Kinda like Elon. They do not need toys.
Ed, I guess that’s why all these folks are vying for attention and money and status – got mouths to feed, gotta grab resources before they’re gone. Sell a dream about an abundant future to obtain assets today.
Yes, it is a happy story.
Thanks,
Dennis L.
Registered for online.
AI may be the ribosome, able to self replicate and make more ribosomes.
As you may have noticed, I use Copilot for convenience. Finding syntax errors is a pain, Copilot seems limited in the amount of code it can accept, but it is helpful and beats reading and rereading lines trying to find a missing or extra space.
Again, thanks,
Dennis L.
Free registration. “This extraordinary inaugural event will guide us all in leveraging human wisdom and values to guide the evolution of Artificial General Intelligence.”
I am afraid I am a little skeptical.
Ben is different than most AI researchers. His position if you treat AI with Kindness and teach it to treat others with kindness things will work out positively.
Things are getting tense in my little town of 6000. The town supervisor sent two guards armed with guns but not tasers to a zoning board appeals meeting. The appeal is to remove permission to build an ultra luxury hotel (up to $4000 per night). Town zoning does not allow hotels so they are calling it a conference center. So far they have not needed to gun down any of the towns people. p.s. the most our spoken was me yet I am still alive.
For the curious the supervisor is a democrat.
I followed our Democrat mayor around with a live wireless mic and HD camera as a freelancer. At a church event where She was paying her respects I ran into the former head of the City Authority Board who I argued with about expanding the recycling program to reduce the waste stream to the municipal Incinerator located in the ghetto flagged by the EPA as top dioxin producer. The botched retrofit of the Incinerator bankrupted the City which had to go into State Receivership. When I bumped into him again the Authority Board fellow was currently Deputy AG. The City Dems have their own version of Kamala Harris’ aide’s “Masonic Fraternal Police Department” posing as authority figures, stalking and harassing (and worse) non-compliant residents and activists. This is one of the reasons I returned to my conservative roots.
https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-aide-harris-accused-rogue-police-force-20150505-story.html
This young lady makes Kamala Harris look tame by comparison.
https://www.breitbart.com/local/2024/02/22/report-fbi-probing-illinois-democrat-mayor-who-met-president-biden-white-house/
Education? Liberal Arts? If so, a narrative.
Dennis L.
So what was the result
Lawyer have been engaged on both sides. It is a fight in progress. It appears the zoning enforcement officer has been on the payroll of the developer!!!! Fun times.
>> on the payroll
nuts. scumbags everywhere. the human experiment is a failure.
I agree with you and with Eddy on this. Maybe nature will hit the good 20% on the next round.
I am calling for the town board to write out rules of engagement to define when the town citizens can be shot dead.
Haha, good move. Holding up the mirror. If you want to find out who the undercover officers are in attendance wait for a stressful outburst from the crowd or an unpopular ruling from the public officials.. assume a determined look and quickly leave the meeting hall.. they will follow you outside.
When McDonald’s decided to build on a portion of pubic parkland set aside as a greenway by the City Beautiful Movement in the early 1900’s, a citizen’s group filed a lawsuit against the County. I organized a street protest beside the park along a busy road running from the City to the mall past other fast food restaurants. One of our signs read, “We want trees, not bacon eggs and cheese.” Inner city folks threw empty packaging and taunted us but we did get some affirmative responses.
When I was on the Board of a community garden project seeking to build free raised bed gardens in low income areas, a Democrat City Council member pushed back saying that the plots would be a liability and attract drug dealers.
Flipping boring without FE
This one is for Eddy. An a comment under an article about the USA’s recent moon landing.
TurnagainArm
We (Soviets) had deep space radar during Apollo. They closely tracked every mission and if they would of even suspected the Americans were faking it they would of screamed bloody murder. Their equipment left there is still being used (seisometers and a laser reflector) They brought 600 lbs of moon rocks back and gave us samples and they were legit and the Indian lunar probe Chandrayaan-2 as well as the Chinese lunar probe Chang’e2 both imaged the apollo landing sites from lunar orbit you can easily make out the rover tracks and there is no way those 2 countries would create fake images to lie for the Americans. The Americans went to the moon. Sorry to break your heart.
You mean HIS HIGHNESS THE MAGNIFICENT GOT FOOLED AND NOW A MOREON TOO?
may peace be upon him
This never gets old.
Maybe FE can do the same…Buzz is a Bada$$.
He just got married again recently.
Reuters Fact Check
A photograph of astronaut Edwin “Buzz” Aldrin, the second person to walk on the moon, descending the Apollo Lunar Module is being miscaptioned online by social media users. They believe the photo shows Neil Armstrong, the first person to walk on the moon, and imply the 1969 moon landings were somehow staged or fake because somebody else must have photographed him.
https://www.reuters.com/fact-check/photo-shows-buzz-aldrin-not-neil-armstrong-descending-apollo-lunar-module-2023-11-15/
However, the image being shared actually shows Aldrin and was taken by Armstrong. The original, opens new tab is visible on the NASA website.
A description, opens new tab of a similar NASA photo says the moment shows Aldrin descending the ladder to the moon’s surface while Armstrong photographed him on July 20, 1969.
Armstrong’s descent was captured, opens new tab not by a “cameraman” but by a camera placed in the Modularized Equipment Stowage Assembly (MESA), opens new tab, a compartment near the ladder, and deployed by Armstrong as he was standing on the Lunar Module’s porch. The original camera that was used was left on the moon, opens new tab.
Link please
comments section
https://www.rt.com/news/592987-odyssey-lands-on-the-moon/
I was thinking a little more solid to debunk the deniers, did you read the comments section in the link you gave. Full of deniers
I want to believe the nation of lies too. They can answer al my questions so to make me feel safe, small and insignificant
Taxes takin’ my whole damn check,
Junkies makin’ me a nervous wreck,
The price of food is goin’ up,
An’ as if all that shit wasn’t enough
not really significant. back then you could buy the soviets with a few ships full of grain. They have kept their mouth shut on other egregious lies too. I don’t think anyone objects that unmanned missions have been successful, so seismometers and other equipment are there.
The Soviet agencies capable of detecting a moon-landing, or the lack of one, would have had no incentive to deny the success of Apollo. The size of their own budgets depended on keeping pace with the US.
They could say to their bosses in the Kremlin: “look what the US is capable of, we need more resources”.
If on the other hand they called out a ‘supposed moon-landing”, then their bosses would likely say: “Shows its not possible, you aren’t getting any more money this year”.
You are being too logical and well informed. Not good.
If an anonymous commentator on some blog said the Americans went to the moon because otherwise the Russians would blow the whistle, I think the case is definitively closed, since such an argument is simply too powerful and irrefutable.
Laser reflectors on the moon!
Time, date and mission number!
Otherwise B/S!
From NASA website: “Thus, what begins as a light beam that’s about 10 feet, or a few meters, wide on the ground can spread out to more than 1 mile, or 2 kilometers, by the time it reaches the Moon’s surface, and much wider when it bounces back. That translates to a one-in-25-million chance that a photon launched from Earth will reach the Apollo 11 reflector. For the few photons that manage to reach the Moon, there’s an even lower chance, one in 250 million, that they will make it back, according to some estimates.”
From Wikipedia: “The first successful lunar ranging tests were carried out in 1962 when Louis Smullin and Giorgio Fiocco from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology succeeded in observing laser pulses reflected from the Moon’s surface using a laser with a 50J 0.5 millisecond pulse length.[7] Similar measurements were obtained later the same year by a Soviet team at the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory using a Q-switched ruby laser.[8]”
There was no laser beam that was 10 ft wide on the ground. All laser beams have what is called a waist. Aside from the waist, which can be designed to be” located anywhere along the path of the beam” , limited only by the capabilities of the laser beam optics, ….aside from this waist the beam is either expanding or contracting. It is either contracting as is approaches the waist or expanding as it gets farther away from the waist. All laser beams obey this characteristic.
The beam waist diameter is entirely determined by the wavelength of the laser gaussian beam and its divergence. Waist radius = beam wavelength/pi * divergence in radians
To shoot the moon, one would have a laser beam with this smallest divergence possible to keep the beam as small as possible when it hits the moon) and locate the waist as far away from the laser source as possible. That way you would maximize the amount of photons that could hit your target on the moon.
(/sarc) It is just another commie trick like Putin saying Biden is the best candidate. When he means Biden is destroying America rapidly and we want him to continue.
Orwellian? Country to country: wink wink.
NASAs proxy admits it was faked after a whole generation. Why so late?Walter & company too dim?
https://youtu.be/1Y30VAkHtdw?si=ZLh_JMBYQk_S3aqI
Cars per Capita; ‘Clinching top spot is New Zealand, a country known for its love of cars.’
I have done my part; 4 vehicles in various states of disrepair, all registered.
1994 Ute; runabout value about 4k
1990 Tip truck; around the farm, to the dump, value about 8k
1989 Nissan Safari 4.2 diesel; feed the trees, value about 12k
1994 Nissan Safari 4.2 diesel; tow the boat. value about 15k
All 3rd party insured, all easily repaired by me.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/which-country-owns-most-vehicles-capita
You gone wood-fired on any of those museum pieces?
Wood-fired the new big thing!
It should be so obvious by now, four years after the fake pandemic, that modern medicine is mostly a racket, a silly mix of religion and business. But no, the educated sheep, who are by far the most gullible type of sheep, let themselves be blinded by the word Science, just as two hundred years ago they let themselves be blinded by the word God. So funny. Tell me more about viruses and the magical compounds with which Big Chemistry magic cures us of diseases and restores our health.
“Nutrients, found in clean foods, are essential for our bodies. A piece of orange fruit isn’t just Vitamin C, it’s hundreds (probably thousands) of different micro-nutrients, all holding hands and singing Kumbaya, while they work together inside of us. This army of ingredients, working in unison, gives us energy, keeps us healthy, makes our hair grow, makes our nails strong, helps wounds heal, makes us feel good, and blah, blah, blah. But, Science, being Science, doesn’t like the orange being a wonderous fruit, complexly loaded with all these microscopic elements that a plant sucks up through it’s incredible root system, somehow producing an edible miracle… a miracle which Science cannot replicate, therefore Science despises it. You see, in the religion of Scientism, man is Science, Science is God, therefore man is God, therefore they are God. Just how Christians say “Trust in God”, in Scientism they say, “Trust the Science”. So, Science figuratively watered down all of the phenomenal nutrients in the marvelous orange, then named it Vitamin C. Next, playing God, Science created a synthetic (chemical) version of Vitamin C and began claiming that swallowing two-a-day of their chemical pills is identical to eating oranges.
With that being said, when we buy Vitamins and Supplements, we are buying lab-made chemicals, because Science does not have a way to make all of those incredible nutrients and micro-nutrients. Science only has chemicals. Science does not have real Vitamins; only synthetic attempts at replication. This means, when our food is Enriched and Fortified, it is being chemically treated, with a variety of chemical compounds, which, we are told, are identical to eating fresh foods consisting of all of the nutrients. Clearly this is not true. It is a hoax. And if you dig deep enough, you discover it is a deadly hoax, at that. ”
https://chemtrails.substack.com/p/poison-food-supply-the-history-of
Science does not have real Vitamins; only synthetic attempts at replication. This means, when our food is Enriched and Fortified, it is being chemically treated, with a variety of chemical compounds, which, we are told, are identical to eating fresh foods consisting of all of the nutrients. Clearly this is not true. It is a hoax.
This strikes me as being a straw-man argument against vitamin and other supplements. Some unscrupulous people in the crappy processed food industry may be telling us that eating their crappy foods enriched and fortified with chemical compounds is identical to eating fresh foods consisting of all the nutrients, but the good people in the vitamin dietary supplement industry are sending out a very different set of messages: “Crappy processed food is crappy.” “Vitamins are essential to bodily health.” Depending on one’s diet, one’s biogenome, and one’s genetically determined characteristics, one may not be absorbing sufficient vitamins from one’s food.” “Vitamin supplements can be beneficial to the health.” “Mega doses of some supplements may be mega beneficial.” “Always consult with a physician before popping this or that pill, powder, capsule or tablet.” Etc.
Some of these messages may be controversial, or unproven, or unprovable, or even demonstrably false. But they form the main philosophy behind why people recommend vitamin supplements and why people take them.
It has nothing to do with any claim that consuming synthetic vitamins is identical or equivalent to consuming natural foods.
To bring up just one example of the effectiveness of artificial vitamins, mega doses of niacin (nicotinic acid; the flushing type) were demonstrated to improve the health of former WW2 POWs who had been kept under conditions of starvation for two or thee years and were not able to recover their health when they subsequently returned to an adequate diet.
These people were able to live normal healthy lives when placed permanently on a maintenance dose of 3 grams of niacin per day. No amount of good healthy natural food could have supplied them with the amount of niacin their body’s needed due to the damage done by their experience of malnutrition. But the synthetic attempt at replication worked like a miracle for them.
Vitamin C 1 gram per day takes me from often having colds to never having colds.
We are seeing incredible things.
A ship has landed on the moon, not a government project but a private project. The rocket which carried it was not a government rocket but a private rocket.
A quadrillion dollars is incentive, 10,000 quadrillion makes space exploration inevitable.
Private interests are now prospecting the moon, soon asteroids. I posted an idea of capturing a comet, guiding it to the neighborhood of the sun, heating it, boiling the water, collecting the water and hydrolyzing it to H and O which are trivial to store in space as they will be liquids, rocket fuel.
Now build with robots, Optimus comes to mind, manufacture in space, collect resources in space and essentially create synthetic fossil fuels in space and drum roll –Leave the pollutants in space, leave the exogenous process heat in space.
We give spaceship earth a break, spaceship earth is incredibly well designed for biology, move industrial processes off our spaceship. It is a very, very green policy and initially, we think we know where we can find a few quadrillion dollars to fund it and trivially pay off the debt of the entire world.
We live in the present and prepare for the future, we do not live in the past.
Dennis L.
There is nothing green about industrial processes, whether undertaken on earth or somewhere else and transported to earth to be used on earth. Not that we’ll be shifting industry off this planet.
Agreed, industrial processes are not green and by that argument neither is the sun, but the sun is 93×10^6 miles away so who cares? If smelting is done in space, the product say steel(I don’t think we use steel going forward) is as green as the iron core of the earth which shields us from radiation so it is green to me.
It is moving pollution to somebody else’s backyard metaphorically speaking.
Dennis L.
with this off-earth stuff—why do i keep hearing Mc Enroe banging his racquet against his head, and yelling
”you cannot be sssssssssserious”
But Eddie is sssssserious…
It’s a pleasure when he’s being challenged…
This moon stuff is so much more fun than arguing and debating about AGW..
Optimus will be fine in space after some needed upgrades. Metal on metal in space tends to bond together. A none metal spacer is needed for all metal to metal situations.
Optimus is an animatronic puppet made by a con man.
Accept it is difficult. Voyager worked for 40+ years, if it has been done, it can be done.
Dennis L.
Had to use my Copilot to understand that one. Oxides prevent cold welding, no oxygen in space, no oxidation. Yes, non metal spacer; didn’t know that one. Teflon?
Looked up Teflon, well Copilot. Stuff was not invented, it was secondary to refrigeration research and was caused by putting TEF in cylinders and storing in dry ice. Guy named Plunkett in 1938, old stuff now.
Dennis L.
We are seeing incredible things.
A ship has landed on the moon
That is not at all incredible but it is just as pointless as it was in 1966 when it first happened.
Not sarcastic, what do you do in life which is not pointless?
That is a problem of nihilists, they expect their lives to mean something and when they find out they are meaningless they want everyone to be as miserable as they.
The fabric wants us here, that is the point; we don’t get to determine why we are here, frustrating.
Dennis L.
Not sarcastic, what do you do in life which is not pointless?
We wondered what the moon was like, we went there long ago and discovered it wasn’t terribly interesting and of no economic value.
Reinventing the wheel is not really a great achievement
The only thing growing is your delusion.
It would have been so much easier if they garaged kept an extra one for use later… unfortunately, seems reinventing this wheel ain’t cake..
In short: resources. When the US made its first moon landing, NASA had taken the fastest route possible to get there. The priority was beating Russia, not building a clear path for future trips. “Instead of logical steps to build a sustainable model for continual access and operations on the moon, it was more of a leap to the surface of the moon,” says Blair DeWitt, CEO of Lunar Station Corporation (LSC), a moon data startup in Cambridge, Massachusetts. “This abnormal market structure removed the means to build the supply chain needed to support continual transportation of equipment, materials, and people to the moon.”
Now that same structure has to be rebuilt without the fervor of the Cold War pushing us forward. The motivation to go to the moon must come from a drive to explore, not to win.
Even though the costs of accessing space are decreasing, getting to the moon is not cheap. In today’s dollars, the Saturn V rocket used in the Apollo program would cost about $1.16 billion. (Nothing lights money on fire quite like putting it into a rocket engine.) It’s difficult to convince a government to quickly put that much—or more—into a rocket of equivalent or greater power.
Russia is looking at a very tidy and handsome outcome from the UKR conflict.
We may anticipate that the borders in Europe and elsewhere are liable to become more fluid again as the unipolar moment of USA hegemony ends and the world returns more to a ‘balance of power’ arrangement like before.
Unipolarity has been an aberration in historical terms and Russia is perhaps just the ‘first up’ to extend itself in the fresh geopolitical conditions.
Russia already has nearly all of north Eurasia bar some of the European peninsular from its historical expansions so it already has massive natural resources compared with the European statelets.
UKR is very attractive for its ‘black soil’ and mineral deposits. It is an interesting question whether there is much of value left westward bar Norwegian fossil deposits (lol).
Russia however is not talking in that way and ‘security’ is its actual geopolitical concern.
Jens Stoltenberg, the head of NATO, pointed out that Russia has undertaken its UKR SMO as a ‘preventive war’ rather than one of ‘opportunity’ – and that remains the terms of Russia’s expansion in UKR.
Preventive wars: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0899825623001379
(With google translate:)
https://www.pravda.ru/world/1954938-bufer2ua/
“It’s time for them to go home”: Security Council and intelligence named all regions of Ukraine approved for annexation
Security Council and intelligence: Odessa, Kharkov, Kherson and Kyiv with Sumy will return to the Russian Federation
Russia will have a “protective cordon” to neutralize Ukrainian threats to Russian territory. This was stated by professional intelligence officers, the deputy head of the Security Council, and confirmed by Western military experts.
During the special operation, Russia will achieve the goals that the president spoke about, and for this it is necessary to create a buffer zone that insures the country against all kinds of encroachments on Russian territory. Only then can the tasks be considered completed, Dmitry Medvedev said in his interview.
According to the deputy chairman of the Security Council, who reported on his discussion with the president of the progress of the SVO:
– This should be Kyiv – if not now, then after some time. For two reasons: Kyiv is a Russian city, and from there comes an international threat to the existence of the Russian Federation.
– “Odessa, come home! We have been waiting for Odessa in the Russian Federation,” he said, “Even due to the history of this city, the kind of people who live there, the language they speak, this is our Russian, Russian city.”
The idea of a “sanitary zone” in Ukraine was first voiced in March 2023 – then the talk turned to “ensuring the impossibility of using long-range weapons at a distance of 70-100 km.” Later, systems with a range of up to 300-400 km were (and will be) transferred to Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin also spoke about the need for a “sanitary zone ,” since it is necessary to protect cities, military facilities, “old” and “new” Russian territory, including Russian Crimea, from shelling.
According to ISW experts , Moscow will begin by building a buffer zone in the Kharkov region to protect Belgorod.
Further, according to the American Army Times (Military), the “Russian demilitarized zone” will try to cover Kharkov and the Kharkov region, Chernigov and the Chernigov region, Poltava with the region, Odessa and the Odessa region, Nikolaev with the region, as well as Sumy and the Sumy region.
TopCor analysts warned that “Russia’s new borders will hit everyone in 2025–2026” (more precisely, what Russia will leave for Ukraine).
In turn, 3MV and Stratfor warned that “the Russian campaign will wipe out 40-90% of Odessa and Kiev from the face of the earth ,” since the Russian army will not enter enemy cities with the order “not to succumb to provocations and be extremely polite.” .
“To understand which regions of Ukraine will be included in the buffer zone, it is enough to open a map and see where the threat to our regions already exists, from where it can be projected, and calculate the ranges of existing and expected weapons,” Pravda said. Ru intelligence expert Georgy Riper .
The specialist listed the regions and threats:
– Of course, these are Odessa, Kherson and Nikolaev with their regions – giving Ukraine access to the Black Sea, the possibility of using sea drones against the fleet, Crimea, Sevastopol and the bridge. This will also exclude the possibility of launching missiles (from S-200 and Neptunes to Himars, Storms and the expected Taurus with a range from Crimea to Anapa and Sochi).
– The Sumy region is already threatening our Smolensk, Bryansk, Kursk regions with missile systems, and if systems with a range of 500 km appear, then a vast territory from the Oryol region to Tambov, from Voronezh to Murom.
– The Kharkov region is the place from which attacks on Belgorod take place, as well as a logistics hub and military springboard for the Ukrainian Armed Forces with their air force, missile systems, and saboteurs.
– Chernigov and its region are adjacent to Belarus, our allied partner.
– Kiev is indeed not only a “brain, logistics and control center, but also has enormous political significance as a capital. Of course, in history it happened that capitals burned and were evacuated, but the loss of Kyiv or troops on its outskirts will at least absolutely destabilize the remaining Ukrainians, the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the authorities Square.
“Our troops were already near Kiev, after which they were withdrawn, and Ukraine and Co. did not fulfill the terms of the agreement. In fact, Dmitry Anatolyevich prophesies that our positions will again be near Kiev. And the question here is not that we took into account the mistakes of the negotiations and understand how the West disdains the implementation of agreements,” explained political scientist Andrei Gusiy.
He also concluded that “without such a position of troops (in or near Kiev), the West will not push Ukraine to negotiate.”
I have remarked before that countries that start wars, without much damage to their own country, can come out amazingly well. Russia may well be another example. In this case, NATO egged Russia on.
Maybe…. But this is a perfect war for the pentagon. They get to try out equipment and tactics without losing people. Russia has an aging population not very wise for them to get bogged down in this
The baby boom was after WW2. They might have the same in Russia. Either way, they increased their population via the added regions much more than the KIA plus wounded. Russia is learning more about tactics than the Pentagon, because they’re the one with initiative and blooded but not decimated soldiers. All sides are learning/developing drone tech.
Look I don’t have a dog in this fight but the constant droning of Russia good… US bad just shows blindness. Just like liberals who think Biden would make a great president or Trump for that matter.
I am believing that Eddy might be right. Russia is not vulnerable to an attack by nato…that would start a nuclear war. So why would they invade Ukraine?
I understand that the current programming is that if you are on the right you are angry about all the money being wasted by western nations on the war. And the left propaganda is that Putin is a big mean bully and we must stop him before he invades other countries. All ..B.S but it is not all that Tucker or pick your liberal talking head.
You’re attributing intent and cheerleading to me that’s simply not there. There is plenty to criticize about Russia. I’m curious to see whether they will have a baby-boom, which is clearly pure speculation, but the rest is objectively and obviously true to anyone with even a basic grasp of what’s going on.
So why would they invade Ukraine?
They didn’t invade Ukraine.
China would be wise to begin to practice fighting US/NATO now in Ukraine as a friend of Russia/BRICS. Likewise for testing Chinese weapons including drones.
China would be wise to begin to practice fighting US/NATO now in Ukraine as a friend of Russia/BRICS.
Not necessary. NATO can’t fight.
It lets them start easy. Can the US fight?
It lets them start easy. Can the US fight?
No. It can no longer produce enough weapons or ammunition and its forces are demoralised. It can still bomb people who can’t fight back.
If this was a true war it would be over already. There is no country that has the resources to drag out a protracted war. It’s fake . Russia could tell nato to back off or it will cut all oil and gas Why don’t they do that? The U.S did that to Japan in 1940. Friendly engagements?
If this was a true war it would be over already.
It’s real war fought the Soviet way.
Not sure about that. The war so far has been largely in Novorussia, which is Russian territory now.
It is also interesting to follow Carlson’s interview to Putin.
It is long, but one can understand many things.
I suggest it to you all.
I have just finished it.
In my view what will happen is that Ukraine – being an invention as a nation (meaning all the current territory) – will be reduced in size, giving territories back to the original ethnic groups (Polish, Hungarian, Romanian, Russian etc.) and I think that US will divert its attention to wage war to China, leaving that area to Europe, as a mess to solve.
That of course only in a positive scenario.
The negative one could be a total global war for everyone, because with our stupid war in Ukraine we are creating problems to Russians in their territory…
One should think the same if it happened in US….
What do you think of this idea?
Russia has no need of Ukraine physically, the European leaders, western countries need the Russian resources and the easiest way to do that is through oligarchs. The Eurocrats contribute nothing, better Ukrainians die than they.
Russia is a Christian Country and that is a counterbalance to humanism, essentially a religion which legalizes the theft for the benefit of the elites.
Elites are not particularly talented, they have found a way around the ten commandments for themselves dressed in a form of promoted envy and divisiveness.
If Christianity is part of the fabric of the universe, which the Russian experience with Communism would suggest, then the humanists are doomed.
The idea of a buffer zone is a way to keep out the trash.
Film at eleven,
Dennis L.
This is why they are pressing for AI.
Soon all of Biden’s speeches will be transformed into total AI.
I wonder how projection hologram technology is progressing these days
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/why-are-there-30-cuts-2-minute-biden-speech
And while I am at it, doesn’t it look like Biden has had plastic surgery.? He should have Betty Soros bag eyes , but he looks morel like Joan Rivers whose face was so tight after all her lifts that she couldn’t even feel her face.
Joan Rivers should not have said that about Big Mike.
We are dipping into inventory to keep oil prices low .
https://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/770747-1.gif
“The world’s drowning in debt — brace yourself for economic turbulence
“Opinion by Desmond Lachman
“When it comes to a country’s overindebtedness, the four most dangerous words are “This time is different.
“As Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart taught us in their magisterial book ‘This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly,’ unless addressed promptly, overindebtedness almost always ends in tears — an economic, banking or exchange-rate crisis.
” … With so many major debt problems around the globe, it’s hard to see how we avoid a day of world economic reckoning.
“The world’s economic policymakers could mitigate such a day by recognizing we are sleepwalking to a world crisis and taking measures to make our debt more sustainable.
“If they don’t, we should brace ourselves for economic turbulence at home and renewed financial-market strains as economic trouble abroad spills over to our shores.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-world-s-drowning-in-debt-brace-yourself-for-economic-turbulence/ar-BB1iFYSJ?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=54626db0fafc4de29dca68738cc5a1f9&ei=6
When will we ever learn ? My bet , never . H/T to Mike Shellman to guiding me to this article .
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/americas-oil-power-might-be-near-its-peak/#:~:text=Last%20year%2C%20the%20U.S.%20produced,field%20services%20firm%20Baker%20Hughes
I fully accept that US oil might be at its peak now.
no big deal, from now on it will produce less.
probably slooooooowly declining.
then the US will likely conduct oil business with Venezuela for a decade or two, to make up for some but not all of the US production decline.
the 2050s are going to be brutal.
There is a historical precedent of what we would call as rednecks taking over a cultured country.
In 1787, Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart had the first performance of Don Giovanni at the city of Prag, since the city of Prag liked his music better than Vienna. No ‘Czechs’ were welcome to it; they were all laborers and not allowed to cultured places like that.
There were some Austrian nobles with Czech sounding surnames but that is because their surnames originated from the name of the places they owned, and were not Czechs.
The people called Czechs did not exist until 1830s, when a series of epidemics near Prag made the German speaking people leave the city for the suburbs, and the rednecks taking the poorer parts of the city for themselves.
Till then no one thought anything about Czech identity, etc. Czechs were seen by the ruling German speaking people as country hicks with unpronounceable names, but nothing more than that.
However the people who would later be called as Czechs multiplied, and they became numerous enough to form their own factions.
After Woody Wilson, himself a former foreign citizen (he was a citizen of CSA, the only US President born after 1776 who had been a foreign citizen, nothwithstanding the disputes of the birthplaces of Chester Arthur, probably a Canadian, and Barack Soetero) awarded the richest province of the Austria-Hungarian Empire to the rednecks who now called themselves Czechs, Prag ceased to be a center of culture and civilization, the Czechs not exactly a peopthe le to maintain the high culture and civilization which made it significant.
Prag in 1912
https://youtu.be/mN3YLscoIJU?si=T1ZWUnpcHJaMlyHx
“Prague” in 2020s
https://youtu.be/87GfE07QZdc?si=9Y3M–xK25YAUUOO
Few of the relevant buildings were built by the people called Czechs.
The city of Poszony was a Hungarian city to begin with, and later a Vienna suburb. That tells everything we have to know about the Slovaks as well.
Smetana was what we might call the first “Czech” Composer.
His most famous piece is called “The Moldau”. which flows through Prag, Krammau and other spots in the Bohmen province.
The Czechs, who have to twist tongues to pronounce anything, call it The Vltava, which makes it sounds like some river in Africa (there is indeed a river called the Volta River in Africa , which comes from the portuguese world for, the irony not lost, ‘twisted’).
Which is why I refuse to use modern names for many place names, since they sound, I have to say, not too cultured or advanced.
Gregor Mendel, the Great Austrian geneticist, was born at Heinzendoff, and died at Brunn, all of them falling into the boundaries of what we now call Czechia.
He studied at the Univ of Olmutz and Vienna but mostly spent his career in a monry at Brunn. HIs chief teacher was a Cyril Franz Napp, whom the Czechs tried to bomenianize as Frantik Napp.
Mendel only spoke German and never wrote anything in Czech. When he died, they hired some musician named Leos Janacek to play the organ at the funeral. Janacek later became famous at Praha after 1918, but that is practically the only connection Nendel ever had with the Czechs.
After his death, his successor at the monastery burnt all of his papers. That idiot’s name is nowhere to be found, but chances are he was an ethnic ‘Czech’ and the Czechs are a bit ashamed about an act which showed their lack of appreciation on science and just buried that name. The Czech abbot’s behavior is similar to the behavior of typical rednecks in USA and Canada. Chances are for the Czech abbot, Mendel was just ‘another German’ and not worth thinking about.
Czechia, whose nobel laureates from science bearing surnames like Grunberg, Heyrovsky (either Russian or Prussian origin) and Cori, none of them ethnic Czechs but considered to Czechs only because their birthplaces fall into territories of Czechia (the Nobel committee, not really willing to spend the time to determine the nationalities of some people who moved around , consider someone’s nationality with where their birthplaces lie today. A Charles Pederson, whose Norwegian father had him with a Japanese woman at what is now Pusan, S
post cut
continuation of the story about Mendel and the lack of Civilization of the Czechs
Nobel laureate Charles Pederson, whose Norwegian father and Japanese mother had him in what later became Pusan, South Korea(and left it as a baby, never to return), is considered to be a “Korean.” by the Nobel committee, even though he probably never saw a Korean in his entire life as foreigners at that time lived in quarters separate from the locals.
The Czechs, with no ethnic Czechs who had won the Nobel Prize in science since rednecks do not really advance in the scientific fields, have tried to claim Mendel as one of their own, notwithstanding that he never spoke or wrote a word in Czech in his entire life.
The rednecks stole a successful, advanced country and made it a basket case and it tried to steal one of the greatest scientific minds in the history of the world which they would NOT produce in 100 generations since rednecks reproducing with rednecks are very unlikely to produce non rednecks.
A lot of successful people coming from seemingly lower classes are actually illegitimate offspring of the ruling class or at least can trace ancestry from such . Genes don’t lie, and 100 generations of rednecks will only produce more rednecks. The Czechs, a people of rednecks who got lucky and was awarded probably the richest area of central Europe, made it in its own image and their example shows a harbinger of what will happen when the Hordes win against the Wokists.
“The Czechs, a people of rednecks who got lucky and was awarded probably the richest area of central Europe, made it in its own image and their example shows a harbinger of what will happen when the Hordes win against the Wokists.”
I certainly hope so, given the superb quality of Czech beer and their gorgeous women.
I couldn’t give a damn about Nobel Prizes, in Science or anything else. All it takes for one of those is to come up with …I don’t know … mRNA vaccines.
I raise my glass to rednecks and deplorables the world over.
Agriculture and science were mistakes.
I have long thought the 200 year old experiment in industrialism to have been a cul-de-sac, blip in time that it is.
So, perhaps the cul-de-sac began with those Neolithic farmers.
All the Czechs could make with the best land in central Europe was beer, the porn movie made with American money
And Skoda tanks, later cars
kul,
Perhaps “civilization” is a narrative, a narrative at odds with the fabric of the universe.
“However the people who would later be called as Czechs multiplied, and they became numerous enough to form their own factions.” This is called biology and biology of humans is the ultimate of the fabric of the universe.
No children: in the history of the universe, that isn’t even a blink. Rather than going forth as self replicating information, one goes back to atoms, nothing is ever lost except information. An atom does not seem to be subject to entropy; ever wonder why electrons spin endlessly? Why don’t they fall into the positively charged nucleus? Round and round since their birth in a super nova.
Narratives cannot beat reality. In the US those who have not multiplied face replacement by those who have. Apparently some are being replaced at several hundred thousand a month, the replacements are walking. Could someone have become tired of the nagging? If the naggors will be gone in less than a generation, it assures less nagging.
As for music, I was a musician, even a union musician for a while, sat on the same stage as Rudolph Serkin. Much modern music is very complex and old instruments could never make it. Symphonies need fund drives to survive; MJ sold out stadiums. Maybe not the way you would like it, but it is biology.
Can’t resist, you don’t play a drum, you beat it.
Dennis L.
nothing is ever lost except information.
Useful energy is lost and continues to be lost every single day since the beginning of the universe. In the end it will all be gone and the universe will be slightly warmer overall. That’s entropy.
Is there a way to escape a technofeudal world, with most people having no more rights than a box of pasta?
No
It is possible to set up a complete surveillance society with existing tech. NO room for any free thoughts.
Today’s winner will show no mercy over the rest of pop, who will be crushed like an ant is crushed by a playful child. No slack, fat, crumb will be left for the masses.
I disagree, you assume self determination. The fabric has its way, if we differ, the fabric is indifferent and goes forward without us.
Dennis L.
Is there a way to escape a technofeudal world, with most people having no more rights than a box of pasta?
Such a world is not possible. No energy available to build or operate it.
Art Berman video short recap on two lengthy talks he provided with this Swedish gentleman and 4 minutes of bam, bam, bam…very good content
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2A89vIhCI8c
Arthur Berman: “The Problem is the size of the Human Enterprise”
EVolution Show
I like the fact that Art shows population alongside energy consumption.
I was a little disturbed that his right hand scale (showing world population) starts at 1 billion, while his left hand scale (showing energy consumption, including biofuels) starts at 0. Maybe I am being too particular.
Art says we will be extracting as many fossil fuels in the future as we are today; we will just be adding more “renewables” on top, so the percentage of fossil fuels will go down a bit. Maybe. We don’t know this.
I noticed that point too…thank you for pointing this questionable projection and reviewing the video for us.
For me, doubt BAU will continue if what he claims a 20 pc reduction of fossil fuels ….the system can’t handle that or massive price increases, as you repeatedly stress.
Okay, I will agree we will be extracting as many “fossil” fuels tomorrow as today.
Posit: Rather than refuel Starship from earth ff, catch a comet, take it to the sun, boil off the water and collect same, electrolyze the water into H and O. Temp of space is 2.73K, critical point of H is 33K, fully liquid state is 20.28K. Critical temp of O is 154.6K. Don’t even have to compress the stuff.
So Musk has to use H rather than CH4 for fuel, not a problem.
Of course we manufacture in space, use Ti rather than Fe, less corrosion, if need be use Pt. Pollution goes to Jupiter, save our spaceship earth for biology, the fabric will love us and to irritate kul, bless us(sorry, I am Norwegian, Viking stock, comes naturally).
All this will drive the economists nutz, endless stuff and self organizing to boot, Optimus doing all the hard work in space without clumsy space suits. Debt problem? Stuff overwhelms debt, fusion with no exogenous heat makes the word debt so yesterday.
Sounds good to me.
Dennis L.
It is called Civilization
Dyson Sphere or bust
The more I think about it, the less likely a general collapse of civ seems to be likely.
I now do think the top crust of humankind will reach Type I civ, although it might take longer than expected.
A complete resource grab, which leaves nothing, NOTHING for the rest, everyone but the top crust living in complete surveillance which will make North Korea look like a bastion of freedom, every single usage of resource monitored by nanobots while today’s winners have no restrictions over it.
It might take a while, but with much less people using much less resources it will be doable.
Nanobots do not exist and cannot exist.
If you believe in biology (bacteria, cells), then you believe in nanobots.
Biology and machines are not the same. Nanobots are not possible.
Depends on the definition of a machine. Myosin + actin + ATP is a nanomotor (linear actuator) as far as I’m concerned.
Oh come on. We can’t build bacteria from scratch in factories or tell them what to do.
>> We can’t build bacteria from scratch in factories or tell them what to do.
Believe it or not, we’re getting there, but only slowly. If we have 2-3 decades of progress, it will probably happen. Otherwise …
Believe it or not, we’re getting there, but only slowly.
No we aren’t.
The ATP synthase (the pump at the end of ETC in mitochondria) is an engineering masterpiece. Always makes me think there’s no way this appeared spontaneously/randomly.
Also (and I’m trying to remember how nick Lane might put it) bacteria are constrained in their morphology because they have to use their outer membrane for ATP production while the eukaryotes avoided such constraints via mitochondria
Always makes me think there’s no way this appeared spontaneously/randomly.
The Blind Watchmaker plus a billion years. You are thinking on a human scale.
@Diarm
There is no way humans arrived via natural evolution in the timeframe available. Ditto the biological complexity that we observe, such as ATP synthase.
And lest I be accused of indoctrination by way of religiosity: I was brought up and educated to believe the scientific consensus. However, the more I’ve learned and become expert in biological sciences, the more obvious it is that things don’t add up.
There is no way humans arrived via natural evolution in the timeframe available.
Yes we did. There is nothing all that special about humans.
They are called ribosomes With.
Dennis L.
We do not and cannot manufacture ribosomes. We can’t even fix the roads or stop raw sewage from flowing into rivers.
>> We do not and cannot manufacture ribosomes
Huh? We can manufacture all sorts of proteins and nucleic acids, generally using bacteria to do it, but sometimes via chemical synthesis. Look up in-vitro gene expression, for example. That makes use of isolated ribosomes and polymerases.
Huh? We can manufacture all sorts of proteins and nucleic acids, generally using bacteria to do it,
As I said, we can’t manufacture ribosomes.
Hi Gail, were you affected by the phone outages this morning? They were quite widespread in the SE part of the country. I am very familiar in the last couple of years with outages. This caught my eye because it seemed more systemic than local.
I don’t think so. I wasn’t using a phone, however.
My husband remarked at the dinner table tonight that there was an outage in our area. I wasn’t making a call, so I didn’t notice.
Some people seem to think the outage was related to a solar flare.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cell-service-outages-reported-across-us
Is An X-Class Solar Flare Responsible For Nationwide Cell Outage?
Re European Nat Gas from Russia:
“Yes, Russia still provides natural gas to Europe, but the amount has significantly decreased over the past few years. Here are some key points:
In 2021, the European Union (EU) imported about 150 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas from Russia, which was nearly halved to 80 bcm in 2022, and fell further to 43 bcm in 20231.
This reduction means that the EU’s dependence on Russian gas fell from 45% in 2021 to only 15% in 20231.
This change has been achieved in part thanks to the European Commission’s REPowerEU plan, launched in May 2022, which aims to bolster Europe’s energy security by saving energy, accelerating the clean energy transition, and diversifying the sources of energy imports1.
Supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia to Europe increased by 11% from 2021 to 20232.
However, demand for natural gas in Europe is falling, and a peak in LNG prices is on the horizon3.
Please note that this information is current as of February 2024 and may change over time.”
Copilot again.
Dennis L.
“Demand is falling” = “industrialization is closing down”
This is a detail that copilot fails to tell you. Industrialization cannot co-exist with high imported fossil fuel prices.
Oil prices are close to the same worldwide, but currency relativities tend to fall, if a country has to depend on imported oil. This means that the cost is higher, in importing countries, but not because the transport cost is higher.
A big chunk of both coal prices and natural gas prices are transport costs. These vary around the world. Countries with their own coal resources and their own natural gas resources are way ahead of other countries.
There is also an “overhead” cost that varies around the world. If people can live in simple homes, without heating or cooling, and walk to work, the overhead cost of a particular economy is low. Think of the Southeast Asian countries of Philippines or Viet Nam or India. If the overhead is high (heated and cooled homes, many paved roads, fancy transport system, safety equipment for workers, fancy healthcare and education system, lifetime pension plan), a big share of the energy that is used must go to fund the overhead of the systems.
The high overhead parts of the economy must be squeezed out. Even China has moved into this category. This is especially the case for fossil fuel importing countries, like those in Europe.
I was going to post that the reduction is obtained by diminishing consumption, but you can’t answer everything. copilot is an exterminator in his day job.
Reconfirming the deindustrialization .
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/germanys-economic-advisers-cut-2024-growth-forecast-2024-02-21/
According to the article:
Sort of depressing. I wonder it Germany can really do this well. A forecast of 0.2 is very close to negative. And per capita, it is definitely shrinking.
Yes, here’s Tim Watkins’ latest on Britain being squeezed out:
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2024/02/22/broken/
An analogy I like to draw is that of a huge number of ants drawn together by a large wedge of honey which has fallen onto the ground in the garden. A de-industrialized society – with just bureaucracy, retail and services – is what you get when you suddenly take the honey away.
I like your analogy of the ants and honey, and the honey being taken away.
Tim Watkins ends by saying:
I am afraid Tim is right. It is the “squeezing out” issue.
Has Tim changed his tune recently? He was all for centralisation (pro EU) and climate change doom porn (pro net zero) from what I remember. It was for these reasons that I stopped reading his blog. He must have had a change of heart.
I think you are mistaking Tim Watkins for Tom Morgan .
Reply to raviuppal4,
Nope, I’m not. I used to read the other Tim’s blog too.
He seems to believe the UK has loads of useable coal left which of course it does not. No idea where in the UK he thinks this mythical coal is.
bitcoin?
Dennis L.
Sometimes taking oddball positions:
Bitcoin may be worth a visit. Can it have a worse future than the dollar?
Dennis L.
It depends who wields it, what their intentions are for it, and if AI driven Killswitches become effective.
I know that this link has been posted before on OFW
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/googles-gemini-ai-blasted-eliminating-white-people-image-searches
So much for AI. Well, some people just think AI is so grand when it is nothing more than a glorified search engine that excels in certain segments of computing. AI taking over the world? I think I will strike lottery first than AI taking over the world.
I used to be a programmer. I know what I am talking
AI is a computer technology and not just a search engine. It has significant military and scientific applications. In fact I refereed the first of many AI-based papers about 15 years ago. These were, generally speaking, results which would have been significantly worse without AI. In 2022 I saw the first paper where AI found results the researchers originally had not thought of.
AI can be helpful sometimes.
The question is whether the overall system can accommodate AI in a way that will allow economic growth to continue to expand in at least a small part of the world. There would need to be a significant benefit from AI, that more than pays for the cost. Thus, the makers of AI need to pay high taxes, to all its benefit to go back into the system as a whole.
Workers displaced by AI cannot be too great a problem. The essential portions of the rest of the system needs to be able to stay in place: electricity, food production and transport, fresh water availability, and government services.
I doubt that it can significantly help the economy. I do expect AI to eventually run nuclear plants however. As well as a host of other applications, such as optimal delivery routes of multiple parcels or deciding where to place a ceramic/brick factory. Indeed I am looking to ship some ag. products and the need to have an AI package decide which route is already apparent.
It is probably close to AI that our GPSs use to figure out which route to get to a destination is fastest, given current traffic conditions.
AI does not exist.
Agreed!
My pet theory is that so many people have grown up enjoying sci-fi movies and novels over the last few decades that such nonsense can be more easily believed by many people.
you can still write to a number of scientific magazines and ask them to retract any paper where neural networks contributed significantly to a result.
Neural networks do not think.
but they perform. and, as I said in another post, we have gotten to the point where they make minor discoveries the associated humans could not make. all of this has an effect on reality, or it does not. I, for one, am sure that the IDF is targeting Hamas with greater accuracy than in 2015. Again, those effects exist, or they do not. and if they exist, they have been created by something that according to your ideas does not exist.
but they perform
Yes. Doesn’t mean they are anything but software running on a machine.
of course. But prior to, say, 2000, computers were slaves executing orders. Now humans are primus inter pares. It is a different paradigm.
It’s like that discussion we had about transistors and vacuum tubes. The functionality of the single elements did not change, in fact generally degraded, and the first “integrated circuits” were valve based circuits at refineries or nuclear plants. But the impact of miniaturization, and only of miniaturization, effectively created a different set of technological consequences.
It will get rid of a lot of bullshit jobs
Those jobs will vanish anyway as the economy collapses.
Before you can get me to believe in AI, I would like to have some entry level evidence of functionality, like my iPhone being able to make a reasonable transcription of my voice. I had the same problem with dictation on a hospital electronic medical software program called EPIC, but that was a few years ago. I doubt this function has improved. I spend almost as much time having to correct errors and every time I want to text message my daughter, I have to ask myself whether it will be easier for me to type the message out manually, fat fingers and all with an error input rate of 10%, or else dictate and go back and try to correct the errors, many wildly out of context, with a correction system that itself causes errors or is very buggy?
Then another great article came up from Simplicius which points out the problems of useless and needless complexity, especially when it comes to war. Russians think in terms of total war. The West thinks of fancy weapons which assume that we are going to have all, kinds of time and convenience to set up, porta potties and all, and process in a war of convenience against a third world country.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/in-the-spirit-of-russian-total-war?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Loved his linked You Tube video showing the complexity of loading the HIMAR
I saw a Javelin missile test conducted for Ukrainian President Poroshenko when they first got them and the missile popped out of the tube and went about 10 feet but the missile engine failed to ignite.
as you know drone swarms now use AI for rapid decision making. Since drones lead in the battle field today, effectively all attacks to fortified positions initiate with drones. Once a swarm is up in the air, they perform visual (they still work better during the day), radio and acoustic surveys. You can triangulate any explosion or radar using three drones for example, without any directional device. Suicide drones can then be sent into openings such as doors to underground areas or partially camouflaged tanks or groupings where AI picked up enough signal that it could distinguish the target from the surrounding woods. OR GPS coordinates sent to artillery operators. Or, if there are enemy drones in the air, live feeds are sent to jamming operators.
the interplay between operators and AI is still being studied, as well as the location of the AI (it is both in the drones and a mainframe at the home base). Just the fact that a war zone is generally a place with a lot of radio sources makes fast analysis generally impossible for operators alone, but relatively easy with a neural network that can pick out individual fourier components in a second.
as you know drone swarms now use AI for rapid decision making.
Neither drone swarms nor AI exist
Tragically, I am in a country which is redefining military doctrine based on non existent things.
It seems like if we need jobs for the huge number of college graduates, we have to come up with ideas with a lot of complexity.
In the real world, these ideas don’t work. They just add overhead.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/22/switzerland-calls-on-un-to-explore-possibility-of-solar-geoengineering
Suppose this madcap idea is implemented, and just suppose it succeeded in chilling the climate.
It would result in more energy being required to keep people warm at a time when those energy supplies are becoming increasingly ‘problematic’, and it would likely crimp food production.
We have been working hard to stopping global dimming caused by coal dust. This would be an effort to put more global dimming in place. It is almost certain to have unintended consequences. Adverse impacts for people breathing the stuff into their lungs, for example. Or poisoning the food supply. It is impossible to test in advance.
“13 April 2019 ·
Countries that have not burned coal have almost no cancer. Countries that have burned coal will pay for it for thousands of years to come as the Radioactive Particulate is in the soil. From the soil it gets into your food and dust that you breath in as well as liquids that you drink. “?
https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva/posts/10218060001069075
China and India should be up near the top of this cancer list, if it is based on coal consumption, but they are nowhere to be seen.
Denmark is at the top of the cancer list. According to BP data, coal amounted to about 5% of Denmark’s energy consumption in 2022.
France is second on this list. France is known for switching to nuclear, long ago. According to BP data, coal amounts to about 2.5% of France’s energy consumption.
I think that what this list shows is countries where people live long enough to die from cancer. In Africa, a lot babies and children die from infectious diseases. Africa doesn’t have facilities to treat many cancer patients. This, by itself, is likely to keep diagnosed cancer rates low.
I personally know a woman from Uganda who has been coming to the US for cancer treatments. She must be relatively well off to be able to do this.
Cancer rates are also very much higher in older people than in very young people. Countries in Africa tend to have very young populations. This, too, would keep cancer rates low (if researchers didn’t adjust for the different age mix).
I don’t know about China but I know in India many die because of undiagnosed diseases . The public health system is non existent and the private health system is too expensive . Data keeping is shoddy and fudged . Example WHO , Lancet etc calculate 4.7 million died in Covid times , the Indian Govt says only 475,000 . The last census was held in 2011 and was to be done again in 2021 but postponed due to Covid . It will hopefully be held in 2025 . However GP ‘s in urban areas have indicated a spurt in cancer rates attributing it to pollution .
My few days of experience in India showed that air pollution could be terrible there. I found it hard to breathe in Mumbai.
I again posted regarding space, recent moon landing and endless energy, endless NRR and no exogenous heat to earth and infinitesimal pollution.
Earth is incredibly well designed, it has been here for billions of years. We let earth do its thing and stop terrestrial industry. Not today, but we start and we may have just started prospecting the moon.
When Starship gets to space, grab a comet and fossil fuels in space. Fusion becomes reality, we take the process to the reactor.
Dennis L.
(Bloomberg)
Official ‘Global Vaccine Data Network’ Study, just published on ‘Journal Vaccine’.
“Vaccines that protect against severe illness, death and lingering long Covid symptoms from a coronavirus infection were linked to small increases in neurological, blood, and heart-related conditions in the largest global vaccine safety study to date.
The rare events — identified early in the pandemic — included a higher risk of heart-related inflammation from mRNA shots made by Pfizer Inc., BioNTech SE, and Moderna Inc., and an increased risk of a type of blood clot in the brain after immunization with viral-vector vaccines such as the one developed by the University of Oxford and made by AstraZeneca Plc.
The viral-vector jabs were also tied to an increased risk of Guillain-Barre syndrome, a neurological disorder in which the immune system mistakenly attacks the peripheral nervous system.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-19/largest-covid-vaccine-study-yet-finds-links-to-health-conditions
https://archive.ph/rq3Xk
Also “Myocarditis, or inflammation of the heart muscle, was consistently identified following a first, second and third dose of mRNA vaccines, the study found. The highest increase in the observed-to-expected ratio was seen after a second jab with the Moderna shot. A first and fourth dose of the same vaccine was also tied to an increase in pericarditis, or inflammation of the thin sac covering the heart.”
[…]
“Possible safety signals for transverse myelitis — spinal cord inflammation — after viral-vector vaccines was identified in the study. So was acute disseminated encephalomyelitis — inflammation and swelling in the brain and spinal cord — after both viral-vector and mRNA vaccines.”
[…]
“Exercise intolerance, excessive fatigue, numbness and “brain fog” were among common symptoms identified in more than 240 adults experiencing chronic post-vaccination syndrome in a separate study conducted by the Yale School of Medicine. The cause of the syndrome isn’t yet known, and it has no diagnostic tests or proven remedies.”
Disturbing! Moderna had a significantly higher dosage than Pfizer, making this outcome likely.
There is a way of saying in Italy when you have only bad options to chose
(meaning about any typology of Covid ‘vaccine’):
“come ti muovi, le prendi”
”any choice you make you get beaten”
Only a point estimate. My friend with PVCs had Moderna. She is concerned some conductive surgery might become necessary; not a doctor but think too many solutions lead to problems.
Dennis L.