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It may be pleasant to think that the economies that are “on top” now will stay on top forever, but it is doubtful that this is the way the economy of the world works.
Figure 1 shows that, for the Advanced Economies viewed as a group (that is, members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)), GDP has been trending downward since the early 1960s; this is concerning. It makes it look as if within only a few years, the Advanced Economies might be in permanent shrinkage. In 2022, the expected annual GDP growth rate for the group seems to be only 1%.
What is even more concerning is the fact that the indications in the graph are based on a period when the debt of the Advanced Economies was growing. This growing debt acted as an economic stimulus; it helped the industries manufacturing goods and services as well as the citizens buying the goods and services. Without this stimulus, GDP growth would no doubt appear to be falling even faster than shown.
In this post, I will look at underlying factors that relate to this downward trend, including oil consumption growth and changes in interest rate policies. I will also discuss the Maximum Power Principle of biology. Based on this principle, the world economy seems to be headed for a major reorganization. In this reorganization, the Advanced Countries seem likely to lose their status as world leaders. Such a downfall could happen through a loss at war, or it could happen in other ways.
[1] The major factor in the downward trend in GDP growth seems to be the loss of growth of oil supply.
In the 1940 to 1970 period, the price of oil was very low (less than $20 per barrel at today’s prices), and oil supply growth was 7% to 8% per year, which is very rapid. The US was the dominant user of oil in this era, allowing the US to become the world’s leading country both in a military way (hegemony), and in a financial way, as the holder of the “reserve currency.”
Data on year-by-year oil consumption growth is not available for the earliest years, but we can view the trend over 10-year periods (Figure 2).
With the rapid growth in the world oil supply in the 1940 to 1970 timeframe, the US was able to help Europe and Japan rebuild their infrastructure after World War II. The US also did a great deal of building at home, including adding electricity transmission lines, oil and gas pipelines, and interstate highways. It also added a Medicare program to provide healthcare for the elderly. The emphasis at this time was on building for the future.
In the 1960s, the Green Revolution was started, aimed at increasing the quantity of food produced. This revolution involved greater mechanization of farming, the use of hybrid seeds that required more fertilizer, the use of genetically modified seeds, and the use of herbicides and pesticides. With these changes, farming became increasingly dependent on oil and other fossil fuels. The green revolution led to lower inflation-adjusted prices for food, as well as greater supply.
The 1970s was a time of adaptation to spiking oil prices and declining growth in oil supplies. At the same time, wages were increasing, and more women were entering the workforce, making the rise in oil prices more tolerable. There were also advances in computerization, changing the nature of many kinds of work.
The 1980s marked a shift to an emphasis on how to get costs down for the consumer. There was more emphasis on competition and leverage (the euphemism for borrowing). Instead of building for the future, the emphasis was on using previously built infrastructure for as long as possible.
Also in the 1980s, the Advanced Economies started to shift toward becoming service economies. To do this, a significant share of manufacturing and mining was moved to lower-wage countries. Transferring a significant share of industry abroad had the additional benefit of holding down prices for the consumer.
[2] Oil consumption growth and GDP growth seem to be connected.
Figure 3 shows that oil consumption growth was higher than GDP growth up until 1973, when oil prices started to spike. This was the period of greatly adding to infrastructure, using the abundant oil supply, as discussed in Section [1]
After 1973-1974, GDP growth tended to stay slightly above oil consumption growth as Advanced Economies started to focus on becoming service economies. As part of this shift, Advanced Economies began moving industry to lower-wage countries. This shift became more pronounced after 1997, when the Kyoto Protocol (limiting CO2 emissions) was promulgated. The Kyoto Protocol gave participating countries (in practice, the Advanced Economies) a reason to hold down their own local consumption of fossil fuels, which is what is measured in Figure 3 and most other energy analyses.
Figure 3 shows that even after moving a significant share of industry to offshore locations, there still seems to be a significant correlation between oil consumption growth and GDP growth. Even with a service economy, oil consumption growth seems to be important!
[3] Prior to 1981, increasing interest rates were used to slow economic growth.
With the rapid growth in oil consumption in the 1940 to 1970 period, the economy often grew rapidly despite rising interest rates. After World War II, government loans became available to returning veterans to buy homes, helping to make the usage of oil affordable.
It was only as growth in oil consumption slowed and interest rates rose to a high level in the 1979-1981 period that high interest rates created a major recession. At such high interest rates, builders of all kinds were discouraged from building. Hardly anyone could afford a new home. Businesses couldn’t afford new factories, and governments couldn’t afford to build new schools. Few people could afford new car loans.
On Figure 3, it is not surprising that GDP dipped at the same time as oil consumption shortly after 1981. The dip in oil consumption was larger because heavy users of oil, such as construction and manufacturing, were squeezed out by the high interest rates.
[4] Falling interest rates in the period 1981 to 2020, as shown in Figure 4, stimulated the economy in many ways.
The 1981 to 2020 period marked a time of generally falling interest rates, with short term interest rates typically being below long-term interest rates. Reducing interest rates tends to stimulate the economy in a variety of ways:
(a) As we all know, lower interest rates make monthly payments on new home mortgages lower. This means that more citizens can afford to purchase homes, leading to greater demand for new homes and their furnishings. Prices of homes tend to rise, partly because people with a given income can afford larger, fancier homes, and partly because more people in total can afford homes.
(b) Even on existing home mortgages, new lower rates can have an impact. In the US, mortgages are frequently set for a long term, such as 20 years, but they can often be refinanced at a lower rate if interest rates fall lower. In many other countries and in the US for business property, mortgage rates are set for a shorter term, such as 5 years. As the loans renew, the new lower rates become available. Borrowers are happy; there is suddenly a smaller monthly payment for the same property.
(c) With lower interest rates, there is demand for more homes to be built. This stimulates the construction industry and helps the prices of all kinds of built structures rise.
(d) A similar situation to (a), (b) and (c) exists for all kinds of items normally purchased using loans. New cars, new boats, and new second homes are affected, as are many kinds of business loans. Even loans taken out by governmental organizations become less expensive. It suddenly becomes easier to buy goods, so more goods are sold. Market prices can be higher because at the new lower interest rates, more people can afford them.
(e) There can be some benefit with respect to long-term bond holdings, if interest rates fall. Bonds generally promise to pay a stated interest rate over the life of the bond, say 20 years. If the market interest rate falls, the selling price of a high coupon-rate long-term bond increases because such bonds are worth more than a similar new bond with a lower coupon interest rate.
Financial institutions such as banks, insurance companies, pension plans, and endowment funds generally have long-term bonds as part of their portfolios. The higher value of bonds may or may not be reflected in financial statements, depending on the accounting rules applied. Sometimes, “amortized cost” is used as the carrying value until the bond is sold, hiding the gain in value. Conversely, if bonds are “marked to market,” then the higher value becomes immediately reported in financial statements.
(f) With mark-to-market accounting, insurance companies, banks and many other kinds of financial organizations can reflect the benefit immediately. As a result, for example, insurance companies may be able to sell policies more cheaply in a falling interest rate environment. (Of course, as interest rates start rising, the opposite is true. I believe that is part of the problem with the spike in insurance rates that the world has been witnessing in the past two years. But this is seldom mentioned because it is less well understood.)
(g) With falling interest rates, practically all kinds of asset prices rise. For example, the prices of shares of stock tend to rise, as does the price of farmland. Prices of office buildings tend to rise. People feel richer. They can sell some of their investments and profit from the sale. Tax rates on long-term capital gains are low in the US, further helping investors.
(h) If generally falling interest rates can be maintained for many years (1981 to 2020), gambling in the stock market starts looking like a great idea. Investment using borrowed funds looks like it makes sense. Buying derivatives seems to make sense. Adding more and more leverage makes sense. People rich enough to gamble in the stock market or the housing market begin to gain huge advantages over the many poor people whose wages remain too low to buy more than the basics.
These advantages tend to drive a wider and wider wedge between the rich and the poor. As diminishing returns become more of a problem, wage and wealth disparities become increasingly major issues. These disparities arise partly because of competition with low-wage countries for less-skilled jobs, and partly because of the need to pay higher wages to highly educated workers. They also arise because owners of shares of stock and of homes have tended to receive the benefit of significant capital gains as interest rates have fallen, for the reasons described above.
[5] Since 2020, interest rates have begun to rise in the Advanced Economies. It is difficult to see how a shift to higher interest rates can turn out well.
News write-ups about the rise in interest rates often say something like the following:
The Fed hiked interest rates a total of 11 times between March 2022 and January 2024, making borrowing more expensive for banks, businesses, and people in an attempt to curb rampant inflation.
However, Figure 4 shows that long-term interest rates (the blue line) started to rise much earlier than this–about the time the US started to borrow a huge amount of money to support the programs it initiated to keep the economy functioning at the time of the Covid restrictions in 2020.
This funding went back into the economy to provide income to would-be workers who were forced to stay home and to small businesses that needed additional funds to cover their overhead. Pauses in student loan repayments had a similar effect. At the same time, fewer goods and services were created because non-essential activities were restricted.
This combination of more wealth in the hands of citizens at the same time as a limited quantity of goods and services were being produced was precisely the right combination of actions needed to generate inflation. So, it was no wonder that there was an inflation problem.
Indirectly, high US borrowing has been, and continues to be, part of the inflation problem. Total goods and services produced in the world economy are not currently rising very quickly because diesel and jet fuel are in short supply, something I wrote about here and here. The US and other Advanced Economies keep issuing more debt in the hope that using this debt will help them purchase a larger share of the goods and services produced by the world economy.
It is not clear to me that this problem can be fixed since the US and the other Advanced Economies need to keep borrowing to support their economies and to fight for causes such as the Ukraine War. Note the downward trend in Figure 1!
One of the big problems with high asset prices and higher-than-zero interest rates is that farmers find that the cost of their land becomes too high to make it worthwhile to grow crops. This is especially the case for new farmers, who may need to buy their land using the higher-cost debt.
People often believe that farm prices will rise indefinitely, but Reuters reports that high borrowing costs and low food prices are cutting demand for farm equipment from John Deere, the world’s largest manufacturer of agricultural machinery. Without a flow of new farm equipment to replace that which is breaking or worn out, food production can be expected to fall.
Another issue is that apartment owners find a need to raise the rent on their units if the interest rate they are forced to pay rises or if the cost of property insurance rises. If they raise the rent of their units, this leaves renters with less income for other goods and services. Indirectly, today’s wage and wealth disparity problems tend to become greater than they were before the rise in interest rates.
In theory, if long-term (not just short-term) interest rates rise and remain higher, the many benefits of falling interest rates in Section [4] will be erased, and even reversed. The economy will be far worse off than it is now because of falling asset prices and defaulting debt. Financial institutions, such as banks and insurance companies, will be especially damaged because the true value of their long-term bonds will tend to fall. This can sometimes be hidden by accounting approaches, but ultimately unrealized capital losses will cause a problem as they did for Silicon Valley Bank.
The heavy use of debt and leveraging in the Advanced Economies makes these economies especially vulnerable to major financial problems if interest rates rise, or even if they stay at the current level. The bubble of debt and other promises (such as pensions promises) holding up the Advanced Economies seems vulnerable to collapse.
[6] The problem facing the people of the Advanced Economies is like the problem the biological world often faces.
The biological world is constantly faced with the problem of too many animals (for example, wolves and deer) wanting to occupy a given space with specific resources, such as water, sunlight, and smaller plants and animals to eat. In some sense, the world economy is an ecosystem, too, one that we humans have made. The Advanced Economies are already in a conflict with the less advanced economies, trying to decide which parts of the world will “win” in the battle over the resources needed for future economic growth.
The Maximum Power Principle (MPP) tries to explain who can be expected to be the winners and losers in an ecosystem when there are not enough resources to go around. I think of the MPP as an extension of the “survival of the fittest” or “survival of the best adapted.” The difference is that MPP looks at the functioning of the overall system, which, in this case, is the world economy.
The parts of the system (such as the individual people, the levels of borrowing, the government organizations, and the narratives governments choose to tell to explain the current situation) will be selected based on how well they permit the overall world economy (not just the Advanced Economies) to function. The goal seems to be to create as many goods and services as possible by dissipating all available energy in as useful a way as possible. In this way, the world GDP, which is a measure of the output of the useful work performed by the world economy, can stay as high as possible, for each time period.
Writings by scientists on this subject tend to be difficult to understand, but they may add some insight. One definition of MPP says that systems which maximize their flow of energy survive in competition. Mark Brown, professor emeritus at the University of Florida, says that under the Maximum Power Principle, “System components are selectively reinforced based on their contribution to the larger systems within which they are embedded,” and, “When resources are in short supply, they need to be used efficiently.” John Delong from the University of New Mexico says, “Winning species were successfully predicted a priori from their status as the species with the highest power when alone.”
I suggest that if these principles are applied to the competition between the Advanced Economies and the less advanced economies of the world, the Advanced Economies will lose. For example, the Advanced Economies have been falling behind the less advanced economies in industrial output.
In addition, the Advanced Economies of the world have fallen behind in the bidding for oil supplies:
Furthermore, the NATO allies seem unable to pull ahead of Russia in the Ukraine conflict. In theory, this should have been an easy war to win, but with limited manufacturing capability, it has been hard for the allies to provide enough weapons of the right kinds to win.
To me, this all points to the conclusion that in a conflict over scarce resources, the Advanced Economies are likely to lose. The conflict could come in the form of war, or it could simply be a financial conflict. Figure 1 shows that the Advanced Economies are already falling behind in the competition for economic growth, even with all the debt they are adding.
[7] There is a lot of confusion about what is ahead.
We don’t know what is ahead. The economy is a self-organizing system that seems to figure out its own way of resolving the problem of not enough resources to go around because of diminishing returns. The world economy seems to be headed toward reorganization.
I believe that the Covid-19 era represented one rather strange self-organized response to the “not enough oil to go around” problem. Figure 6 shows a clear dip in the amount of oil consumed in 2020, particularly by the Advanced Economies. Some of this reduced oil consumption continues, even now, because more people started working from home, saving on oil. Another helpful change was a huge ramp-up in the use of online meetings.
It is possible that new adaptations to limited oil supply may appear in as strange a way as the Covid-19 era did.
Another possibility is that the Advanced Economies, particularly the US, will encounter severe financial problems as the rest of the world moves away from the US dollar. Or the problem could be falling asset prices because of higher interest rates, causing many financial institutions to fail. Or the problem could be too much money being printed, but practically nothing to buy, causing severe inflation of commodity prices.
War may be a possibility because it is an age-old way of dealing with resource problems. For one thing, it becomes easy to raise debt to pay for a war. This debt can be used to hire soldiers and buy munitions. With the higher debt, the GDP of the economy can be expected to suddenly look better because of the stimulus given to it. The major “catch” is that picking a fight with a major competitor or two could prove to be disastrous.
Let us hope that our leaders make wise choices and keep us away from severe problems for as long as possible.
The latest from Art Berman
Let’s Stop Arguing About An Imaginary Energy Transition
https://www.artberman.com/blog/lets-stop-arguing-about-an-imaginary-energy-transition/
From the post:
“So what’s the solution?
Asking for the solution is the wrong question. The right question is, what is the truth about what is happening now? Here is the truth based on the data that I’ve presented in this post.
The current energy substitution approach has failed to achieve meaningful reductions in global emissions, primarily due to an unrealistic overestimation of renewable energy’s potential impact. This failure is compounded by the absence of a contingency plan for when renewables fall short.
The real solution lies in drastically reducing overall energy consumption. However, this won’t materialize, even if global consensus deemed it the right path. The reason is simple: there is no international coordination mechanism to plan and enforce such a sweeping change.”
Yeah, I agree with him, btw it’s impossible for the vast majority of human population to slow down.
After all, no consumption=no growth=collapse of the modern economic system.
Well, at this point it’s just a waiting game. Fossil fuels were a great gift from geology, and we squandered them.
Another 10 years at best before the “standard run” of LTG reaches the peak…and then the remorseless, relentless decline.
Well, was a good run while it lasted…
“The current energy substitution approach has failed to achieve meaningful reductions in global emissions, primarily due to an unrealistic overestimation of renewable energy’s potential impact. This failure is compounded by the absence of a contingency plan for when renewables fall short.”
Agreed. but the technology and engineering is in place to address these problems and shortage is not more fossil fuels, not more pollution, not more exogenous heat, or more properly more heat released at a greater rate than heat received from sun and heat generated by the earth’s core.
A cubic mile of Pt, uses all existing technology. It is clean, it is green, utilizing current solar radiation it does not increase the rate of heat release on earth, it does change existing solar radiation from heat to chemical and ultimately much kinetic movement. More technically, it causes photons to move electrons; way above my knowledge level.
Starship moves the pollution to a metaphorical Jupiter where it belongs. We are rapidly developing robots which will work in space allowing us to manufacture in space, pollute at will with an infinite waste dump and heat sink. Manufacturing in space removes that waste heat to space, it is no longer generated on earth secondary to increased rates of release such as fission, fusion, or simple burning millions years of accumulated carbon in a few hundred years.
Amazing: technology came along in the blink of an eye which allows us to use existing engineering. The thumb. A guess, that thumb has a cubic mile of Pt within our newfound grasp.
Dennis L.
The technology is in place only in your increasingly warped imagination.
There are no starships capable of going so far without spending more energy than which might create.
You base your imagination from infomercials by those who have things to sell. That will not lead to anywhere.
Cheer up. It looks as if you’re going to a funeral.
Harry…
It’s all right major. I’ve had a good run. There’s nothing for me in England anymore, and back in Australia, well, they do say that if you need a couple of stiff brandies before you climb up on a wild horse, you’re finished.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1Z4O6SQMx8&t=5455s
@1:38:14
“travelling back and forth between Siberia and Europe, through winter and summer, bringing copious volumes of gas from Russia to Europe. It is part of the explanation for how Europe never ran out of gas, even after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This is not, it’s worth saying, the conventional wisdom. Back when Russia invaded Ukraine, European policymakers declared they planned to eliminate the continent’s reliance on Russian gas – which accounted for roughly a third of their supplies before 2022.
And many assumed that had already happened – especially after the Nord Stream pipeline, the single biggest source of European gas imports, was sabotaged in late 2022. But while volumes of Russian pipeline gas into Europe have dropped dramatically, the amount of Russian LNG coming into Europe has risen to record levels. . . .
Today, Europe still depends on Russia for around 15% of its gas, an ever-growing proportion of which now comes in via the sealanes, on tankers like the Yakov Gakkel. And while the US has stepped in to make up some of the volumes lost when those pipelines stopped, only last month Russia overtook the US to become the second biggest provider of gas to the continent. It’s further evidence that those LNG volumes carried on ships through the North Sea, the Irish Sea and the English Channel, are increasing, rather than falling.
This Russian gas has helped Europe replenish its gas stores, it has helped keep the continent’s heavy industry going throughout the Ukraine war. And this dependence has not come cheap: the total amount Europe has paid Russia for LNG since 2022 comes to around €10bn.”?
https://news.sky.com/story/the-critical-cog-in-putins-machine-and-how-british-firms-help-to-keep-russian-gas-flowing-into-europe-13161807?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Interesting! Russian sanctions have been on oil, not LNG. British companies have been making money off of the transport and insurance of LNG ships.
‘This Energy Transition Thing Really Is Not Happening . . .
4,748 TWh of renewable generation — wow, that’s a lot! Or is it? Do you notice how they suddenly switched units from Exajoules to Terawatt hours when they changed from talking about fossil fuels to solar and wind. Does anybody around here know the conversion factor? Yes — it’s 277.778 TWh per EJ. That means that the 4,748 TWh of “almost entirely” solar and wind power generated in 2023 came to all of 17.1 EJ, which is just 2.7% of the 620 EJ of world primary energy consumption. Could you have imagined that it could be so little, after decades of over-the-top promotion and trillions of dollars of subsidies?
And pay attention to that line “wind and solar . . . accounted for 74% of all net additional electricity generated.” Does that somehow sound like a transition is happening? It’s the opposite. If wind and solar were actually taking over, they would have to account for 100% of additional generation, plus large further amounts to replace fossil fuel generators. As long as wind and solar account for less than all of additional generation, then fossil fuels are continuing to increase, and there is no “transition” going on at all.’?
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/06/27/this-energy-transition-thing-really-is-not-happening/?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=this-energy-transition-thing-really-is-not-happening
The great “energy
transitionaddition“See my note after Art’s reference. We have the solution, it is Starship, we have existing engineering which solves these problems.
We need a cubic mile of Pt, and it is up there, not down here. We can now get up there, we do not need 30 year old spacesuits(heard NASA is using original or near original suits, they are leaking), we have/will have robots which don’t need oxygen for a start nor do they poop in their underwear.
The stars aligned,:Starship, AI, robotics. Faith would suggest the cubic mile of Pt will appear, or “Seek and ye shall find.”
Dennis L.
If that’s the best plan we’ve got, I’ll take up drinking.
Respectfully,
How are you going to deal with change?
Harshly,
What skill set do you bring to the table?
Negativism seems to be a religion of sorts.
Atheism was at one point the height of intellectualism. More and more science looks at things and goes hmmm. If the universe is a simulation, who wrote the metaphoric code? Who is running the simulation? Or is it turtles all the way down.
Dennis L.
It is just like a denial of death.
One can believe one can live forever and imagine a bunch of things, but they end up like the First Emperor of China, who thought mercury was the elixir for immortality and drank, bathed and put it to his skin every day and loved it so much that he ordered his tomb to be laced with a river of mercury, which is why tomb raiders spared his tomb since even they knew the poison there was not worth risking their lives.
What is the difference between a cubic mile of Hg and a cubic mile of Pt?
Dennis, ” and it is up there,”……………
No It’s not!!!
The largest concentration of any precious metal is likely here on Earth as this is the planet that has the geological activity plus water and life that are important ingredients for concentration of all minerals, over great periods of time.
The cubic mile of platinum isn’t down here, so certainly wont be up there. You obviously need to do some geology in your CC courses to understand the basics of any ore formation, let alone natural metal… Plus a bit of astronomy including star and planet formation, to understand there is no cubic mile of platinum, anywhere…
Hideaway,
You have been there? It is a very large solar system, we are only now getting back into space with competence.
Regarding something as fundamental as a space suit, per Copilot: “So, while the current suits are indeed around 30 years old, new and improved designs are on the horizon.” The company making these suits for NASA quit. SpaceX to the rescue, EVA coming up.
We will make thousands of droids and go for it, we have no idea of what we will find; we don’t know everything.
The future will not be linear, it will be bumpy, blind alleys will be pursued; those in some of those alleys will not make it but those who don’t look will suffer the same fate.
The universe is in front of us, as we mature we discover it.
Dennis L.
Dennis—if you repeat starship and pt rubbish often enough—folks will start believing you
Norm,
If you do nothing and only prepare yourself for doom, you will find it. If it does not come perhaps you will find yourself in the same position as the Western intellectuals who thought they had all the answers.
The rest of the world is going a different direction, almost self organizing. Amazing, Gail nailed another one.
I will take any solution as long is it is not a wishful thinking narrative which does not work.
Assuming sufficient Pt, I am willing to listen to arguments why it won’t work. If there are none, look for the Pt; seek and ye shall find.
Dennis L.
Dennis
1000 years ago, the Chines invented a way to lift objects off the ground by means other than muscle power
we still use the same means. (we just dress it up differently)
There is no other means available to us, neither does there appear to be one on any technical horizon
(if there is, tell me about it)
That is why your starship/pt nonsesnse is what it is—total nonsense
(Il Giornale d’Italia)
Stefano Bontempelli famous financial investor, dies of suicide.
He recently discovered a turbo cancer to his eyes which was causing him to quickly become blind.
He was the creator of the italian software system (called ‘app immuni) for smart phones, used to control people’s movements during Covid in Italy.
https://www.ilgiornaleditalia.it/news/cronaca/627222/addio-a-stefano-bontempelli-morto-suicida-nb-renaissance-app-immuni.html
For a story like this, where is “he who cannot be named” when you need him?
>> He was the creator of the italian software system (called ‘app immuni) for smart phones, used to control people’s movements during Covid in Italy.
While I wouldn’t wish it on him, karma did come quickly.
ivan,
We make choices, some of us made a choice to sit the experiment out, others did not.
History is full of such examples as well as cases where not moving forward led to death and an early end.
In my world, only 20% of the ideas work, the trick is to let go of the 80% which don’t. Sometimes letting go does not come in time. The Italian believed in his idea, it didn’t work.
I believed in Starship, touted it, continue to do so.
I believe with current knowledge and engineering Pt is the only solution which can come in time. One step at a time. If something better comes along I have a word I like, “Next.”
Dennis L. .
(Luce La Nazione)
Marriage celebration in official uniforms in Italy between two Police women (+ video inside the article), with Police colleagues all in official uniforms.
https://luce.lanazione.it/lifestyle/picchetto-romantico-giulia-latorre-figlia-maro-proposta-o2anvkns
If it works, it is right, if it does not it is wrong. Time will tell.
Dennis L.
Part 2 .
Meanwhile, that money continues to flow into highly speculative territories generated from smoke bubbles. I imagine a bubble joining with others, giving rise to a larger one, which will then join with others and so on, avoiding the explosion with the continuous injection of more and more liquid matter. And so on until the final Armageddon arrives. When will it be?…
It amuses me that there is a financial stability council so eager to generate a whole complex of regulations to subject financial activities to Basel III, which is the one that currently governs. If there is a huge shadow banking (SBS) that is dizzying to look into and that escapes any regulatory framework, then why so much fuss about making the machine work with the greatest precautions in the world? Why so much leverage ratio, value adjustments of derivative assets, assessment of counterparty risks, standards for unifying the requirements for holding equity and other paraphernalia?
The truth is that here, citizens have not demanded for some time that the banking system fulfil its main social function, which is not precisely to create wealth on paper, but to provide quality credit to the real economy. To finance companies that produce goods and services and give them opportunities. But also to give liquidity to ordinary people so that we can make our lives possible through terrible vices such as buying a home or living with a certain amount of comfort without the need for great luxuries. Of course, that does not generate many returns… and it also happens to be inflationary.
A quote from TW Adorno comes to mind about something that has nothing to do with it, but that could well be adapted in this case by changing the terms: From the promise of economic prosperity for the common interest, only the shrug of the shoulders of the bankers and politicians who have already made the secret pact with social bankruptcy remains.
Just a thought…citizens have not demanded..
Well, during the banking (financial) crisis of circa 2008, a group of citizens did do just that DEMAND with the Occupy Wallsteet movement, protests throughout
the US and a rally in NYC. In my City of Charlotte, an encampment was established there and I wrote and contacted my representatives.
I office staff when I called acknowledge they were receiving a record of calls agreeing to hold those accountable and restrict unreserved bailout that would enrich those responsible.
So, what happened? Bubba Bush has a news conference and smirks that he doesn’t know how this happened (obviously, was not aware..biggest excuse their is) and he was advised to approve the bailouts to save us all from the pitchforks….Obamie is no better…when confronted about it at a news conference he does he standard LOOK…there is PLENTY of BLAME to go around and shrugs it off..next..
It’s a big club, bro, and we ain’t in it…rinse and repeat
We can’t help ourselves to do different… Jeremy Irons in his role in the movie The Big Short
A guess:
80/20 as always. Watch some of the channels regarding Space X. Money on the move, it appears a greater undertaking than NASA ever did, Starships in months, then weeks, then days. Rocket engines at a rate of one per day.
It uses current engineering, it must use AI to evaluate the rockets as they fly, as they fail and solve the problems in real time.
I posted before, someone/thing has their thumb on the scale. The amount of financial capital employed is huge, on a scale and rate perhaps never seen in human history.
A guess, the cubic mile of Pt will not be that hard to find once we can effectively look around us, i.e. in space.
The Pt uses existing engineering and it makes solar energy practical on a very large scale without polluting our spaceship earth. One can even use wind turbines and associate electricity and it can be stored in H atoms which if they leak float off into space.
For the worriers, we could then have a shortage of water with leakage of the formerly bound H into space. We will solve that, comet anyone?
Dennis L.
An interesting comment from Quark in Spain . In two parts for ease .
” To give the view of someone who has almost no contact with the world of finance, I think we have a very serious problem with the banking and financial system right now.
On the one hand, we find states suffering from a chronic illness when it comes to financing themselves in an economic environment that is increasingly languishing in its growth potential (for reasons I believe sufficiently explained in this blog). And then, we also have an entire ecosystem inhabited by financial entities with a fierce and blind capitalist logic that pursue maximum profit in the shortest possible time, regardless of all the experience of past economic history with all its crises. They always repeat the same ethos.
From my point of view, after having consulted certain sites, the “diabolical” mechanism seems to work like this: the central banks, which now seem to have the mission of being the main replacement lenders, make money flow to the banks, which refuse to hoard it because idle money is known not to generate profits. Therefore, they immediately buy public and corporate debt bonds that already offer ample guarantees; But not only bonds. They also buy securities of large companies with wide recognition but low yields and, what is worse, also properly structured capital products with a horrible credit rating, but with very high yields. In other words, rubbish. Not to mention the next level of degradation consisting of a wide variety of assets: high-risk derivatives, hedge funds, repos, swaps, default insurance, etc., etc.
Banks never panic, mainly for two reasons: First, because by using debt securities as collateral (guarantees), they find the doors of the markets wide open. And second, because as quark says, the idea has been installed in the minds of investors that no matter what happens, central banks will always be there acting as firemen ready at all times to connect the hoses to spray liquidity into the system. After all, it is much easier to create billions by clicking a mouse than to really grow an economy.”
Creating money out of thin air works until it doesn’t. Mostly, it creates inflation. It also creates conflict among countries.
Looking at your second quote in a different comment,
“The truth is that here, citizens have not demanded for some time that the banking system fulfill its main social function, which is not precisely to create wealth on paper, but to provide quality credit to the real economy.”
We have gotten carried away with our faith in this system. It has given us far too much. The resources that make up today’s real economy are rapidly depleting. What has happened in the past is no longer possible. This is the problem.
Building small homes using local materials can be sustainable. Walking is likely to be sustainable. Building roads is iffy. Building vehicles of any kind is iffy. We have targeted far too high goals.
Nuclear fusion disappointment
https://interestingengineering.com/energy/iter-nuclear-power-delay
But
I won’t hold my breath on either one of these:
It looks like humans were indeed the cause of the extinctions among the large mammals over the past 50,000 years rather than climate change. The extinctions are unique over the past 66 million years despite just as extreme glacial cycles (ice ages and warming periods).
It calls into question the idealisation of hunter-gathering as a somehow ‘harmonious’ or ‘ethical’ lifestyle in contrast to farming or industrialism. We now have extensive evidence that hunter-gatherers were also given to warfare. The scale may have changed but tell that to the larger mammals lol.
Evolution involves extinctions and human evolution also involved extinctions, that is just how it went. Obviously nothing ‘matters’ without a subject to whom it ‘matters’, the world is a flux and all things in it, and everything comes to be and passes away.
The world is what it is and regardless of human sentiments in its regard. Life devours itself and it also goes extinct. That has been public knowledge since Georges Cuvier presented his paper on fossils in 1796 and the role of humans was first recognised in the 19th c. with the Dodo.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/07/240701131808.htm
The evidence is mounting: humans were responsible for the extinction of large mammals
The debate has raged for decades: Was it humans or climate change that led to the extinction of many species of large mammals, birds, and reptiles that have disappeared from Earth over the past 50,000 years?
By “large,” we mean animals that weighed at least 45 kilograms — known as megafauna. At least 161 species of mammals were driven to extinction during this period. This number is based on the remains found so far.
The largest of them were hit the hardest — land-dwelling herbivores weighing over a ton, the megaherbivores. Fifty thousand years ago, there were 57 species of megaherbivores. Today, only 11 remain. These remaining 11 species have also seen drastic declines in their populations, but not to the point of complete extinction.
…. The dramatic climate changes during the last interglacial and glacial periods (known as the late Pleistocene, from 130,000 to 11,000 years ago) certainly affected populations and distributions of both large and small animals and plants worldwide. However, significant extinctions were observed only among the large animals, particularly the largest ones.
An important observation is that the previous, equally dramatic ice ages and interglacials over the past couple of million years did not cause a selective loss of megafauna. Especially at the beginning of the glacial periods, the new cold and dry conditions caused large-scale extinctions in some regions, such as trees in Europe. However, there were no selective extinctions of large animals.
“The large and very selective loss of megafauna over the last 50,000 years is unique over the past 66 million years. Previous periods of climate change did not lead to large, selective extinctions, which argues against a major role for climate in the megafauna extinctions,” says Professor Jens-Christian Svenning. He leads ECONOVO and is the lead author of the article. He adds, “Another significant pattern that argues against a role for climate is that the recent megafauna extinctions hit just as hard in climatically stable areas as in unstable areas.”
Effective hunters and vulnerable giants
Archaeologists have found traps designed for very large animals, and isotope analyses of ancient human bones and protein residues from spear points show that they hunted and ate the largest mammals.
Jens-Christian Svenning adds, “Early modern humans were effective hunters of even the largest animal species and clearly had the ability to reduce the populations of large animals. These large animals were and are particularly vulnerable to overexploitation because they have long gestation periods, produce very few offspring at a time, and take many years to reach sexual maturity.”
The analysis shows that human hunting of large animals such as mammoths, mastodons, and giant sloths was widespread and consistent across the world.
It also shows that the species went extinct at very different times and at different rates around the world. In some local areas, it happened quite quickly, while in other places it took over 10,000 years. But everywhere, it occurred after modern humans arrived, or in Africa’s case, after cultural advancements among humans.
…in all types of environments
Species went extinct on all continents except Antarctica and in all types of ecosystems, from tropical forests and savannas to Mediterranean and temperate forests and steppes to arctic ecosystems.
“Many of the extinct species could thrive in various types of environments. Therefore, their extinction cannot be explained by climate changes causing the disappearance of a specific ecosystem type, such as the mammoth steppe — which also housed only a few megafauna species,” explains Jens-Christian Svenning. “Most of the species existed under temperate to tropical conditions and should actually have benefited from the warming at the end of the last ice age.”
Humans! The worst.
Nope we are the best. It is biology and it simply is, no underlying value system.
If it works it is good, if it does not work it is bad.” Saying from WWII, American GI’s.
Dennis L.
I am amazed that this still needs to be proven. Of course humans killed and ate all mega-fauna. A diet rich in meat creates much larger brains, and over time they devised a number of successful techniques for hunting (in the agricultural era, brains shrank). Chief amongst them was the invention of the spear, the original stand-off weapon. It allowed them to kill while they were out of range of the mastodon legs and tusks. It allowed them to also target and select the largest specimens, which were richer in fat but also the ones able to produce offsprings, and they were therefore very much more destructive than regular predators. They also drove whole herds off cliffs, killing every animal.
Compare with regular predators, which select the young and old because they are the weakest, but which also do not have the same amount of fat. This in turn was due to regular predators having evolved over millions of years, so they can tolerate a high protein diet (their system produces a lot of bicarbonate to neutralize all the ammonia that kidneys and liver need to process). Humans can not, and it is very likely that dogs were domesticated because there was a lot of lean meat laying around in camps, which no one wanted.
Exactly drb753. There is countless research papers on the subject and all the clues, findings and the fossil records, lead to a single explanation.
Here are some references:
Eating meat led to smaller stomachs, bigger brains.
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2008/04/eating-meat-led-to-smaller-stomachs-bigger-brains/
“…the Expensive Tissue Hypothesis (ETH) in Aiello’s co-authored 1992 paper — argues that around 1.5 million years ago early humans began to eat more meat, a compact, high-energy source of calories that does not require a large intestinal system.” (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expensive_tissue_hypothesis)
“But is there evidence in the fossil record for a transition to what Aiello called “a high-quality animal-based diet”?
Briefly, yes. For one, animal bones from 2.5 million years ago showed cut marks thought to be from the earliest stone tools. And earlier species of early hominids had strong jaws and molar-like teeth; later species were more like modern humans, with weaker jaws, smaller faces, and smaller teeth.
There are other of bits of evidence pointing to meat eating by early humans, said Aiello. “My favorite are the tapeworms.”
Parasite historians — yes, there are some — say that hyenas and early humans were infected by the same type of tapeworms, which suggests they shared booty from scavenged carrion. (Such analysis is possible because of “isotopic ecology,” the study of microscopic traces of food-related isotopes in both fossils and living creatures.)”
Impact of meat and Lower Palaeolithic food processing techniques on chewing in humans
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature16990
The origins of the genus Homo are murky, but by H. erectus, bigger brains and bodies had evolved that, along with larger foraging ranges, would have increased the daily energetic requirements of hominins. Yet H. erectus differs from earlier hominins in having relatively smaller teeth, reduced chewing muscles, weaker maximum bite force capabilities, and a relatively smaller gut. This paradoxical combination of increased energy demands along with decreased masticatory and digestive capacities is hypothesized to have been made possible by adding meat to the diet, by mechanically processing food using stone tools, or by cooking.
Fascinating.
Assume correct, current political trend of making meat very difficult to obtain and expensive is not wise.
Dennis L.
Simple thought experiment:
Don’t eat meat and have a smaller brain, eat meat have a larger brain. Non eaters become extinct; a narrative which didn’t work but seemed like a good idea at the time to those with the narrative.
Dennis L.
non eaters always become extinct.
Humans win under “survival of the best adapted.” Adding some heat for cooking food allowed brains to grow and digestive apparatus to shrink. Humans could trap or otherwise kill big animals. That is simply the way the system works.
Unless there is a God looking out for humans, humans are likely to end up on the extinct list, just like many, many species over the years. Perhaps some kind of green plants will dominate next–they tend to thrive on high CO2.
If, at some future time, archaeologists of an unknown race discover our wind turbines, perhaps they will surmise a religious function. An earnest paper might be written, claiming them to be a desperate appeal to the gods to grant us more oil.
Which, in a way, they are.
Interesting point!
I believe I read or heard from someone that civilization is possible without oil (obviously), just not this one we have….wonder what kind will succeed ours and if there will be disciplines of study to undertake such.
What I’m getting at, it will be many millions of years to form fossil reserves back into the earths crust and practically all of our legacy will have disappeared, including windmills and other achievements.
I agree, if such intelligent aliens visit before then and study our society, they may draw that conclusion. We do have a myth of religion that humankind is progressing and advancing, but in the long run it will prove to be just an illusion…
Jeremy Rifkin, in his book Entropy; A New World View (circa 1980!), was my first wake up call, pointed out that a so called primitive living in the jungles of the Amazon has more direct control over his existence than a modern city dweller. We look down upon their society because it in not advanced, but it’s just a different kind of knowledge and intelligence. Primitive is not inferior, Its root meaning is first….nothing more.
But, of course, we moderns are judgmental to justify our own (often misguided) actions.
Zerohedge is reporting:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/parkinsons-specialist-met-white-house-least-9-times-july-2023
Parkinson’s Specialist Met With White House At Least 9 Times Since July 2023
Cannard’s most recently published paper is
Eleven-year outcomes from the deep brain stimulation in early-stage Parkinson’s disease pilot clinical trial
I have tried to watch Biden’s bloopers several times and I could not. It reminded me too much of my father, who also died of Parkinson.
I cannot find any evidence that Cannard actually examined Biden, only that he examined Biden’s physician
There is lots we don’t know.
Chinese electric cars for $12K
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGgo_wpV1ug
BYD is vertically integrated, Ford had that idea many years ago.
China has engineering talent, intellectual capital. We have degrees which cost a fortune and make nothing.
I am stressing on this site I am at a CC, the courses work, they are current. Engineering in many areas, eg. electronics, changes too rapidly to always start from basics such as physics which is very useful. My huge fear is age, getting tired; each semester completed is my Alzheimer’s test, passing so far. It is stressful.
Boeing went from being an engineering company to being run by an accountant. It isn’t working, planes crash and spacecraft are one way with no apparent return ticket.
Our accountants threw away our manufacturing base; for the former employees their suggestion was to learn coding.
Suggestions are being made that making things with one’s hands causes the brain to mature in ways different from using the thumbs. That is a hard one to overcome and perhaps in the US our politicians best exemplify this; corollary, the road to hell is paved with good intentions. We got rid of “industrial education” in our secondary schools, everyone would code. We got rid of home economics, fast food is a result along with chronic health problems.
We have a lot of hard work to do in the US.
Look at the background of this video, beautiful, buildings and people in sail boats. This no longer a “poor” country. I think he is deliberately putting in these backgrounds to demonstrate Chinese life. It is hard work, so is farming.
The US is short on intellectual capital, when it retires if there is nothing to replace it, failure comes quickly. Manual labor does not pay pensions to the older generation, bummer.
Dennis L.
Balanced and Fair:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1ZZ-Yni8Fg
SH has a podcast that includes H at about 9:00. At about 10:30 she states regret over studying theoretical physics, Ph.D. Level. Me, I would love to be that smart, have the degree in physics and then go to dental school as I was really good at it.
Point, we cannot be everything we may wish, and what we are good at may pay the bills and be a satisfying life but not be our dream job. Or, a dental office has less overhead than a nuclear accelerator.
The link on H at 9:00 is not very positive, storage is mentioned.
Climate change is mentioned, I skimmed it, seems like whatever happens we are stuck with it. I am resisting Gail on this point for those of you who haven’t noticed.
If you have missed my latest fiasco, a wind turbine. Now, it has a chance of working if one ignores this is a $100K unit without the concrete base purchased for $700. Couldn’t get the three bases, 3’x9′ in a Uhaul truck, bummer. Factoid, one load in a 26′ truck with 12′ trailer, a second load with a smaller truck and same size trailer. Gasoline used for that part, not terribly green. I am sure energy wise it will net out someday.
After SH if I store energy, will go battery; of course, buy cells and roll my own. I am sure chargers are on YouTube, DIY and of course, I am taking electronics. What could go wrong?
It is necessary to laugh at one’s self. Of course, like most here, there is no good idea I can’t take to extremes.
Admit, diesel is hard to beat unless it is biodiesel, don’t ask.
Dennis L.
Timing is one of the things left out of the EROEI analyses. You and I will long be dead when the wind turbine’s energy requirements will be paid back.
You should remember that all a wind turbine provides is intermittent electricity, perhaps suitable for pumping water. It replaces some of the coal or natural gas that an electricity provider would normally buy, to operate its coal or natural gas fired plants. Offsetting this benefit is the huge amount of infrastructure needed to collect the wind from distant locations, and transport it to where it can be used. There also need to be complex programs to try to smooth out the deficiencies of wind provided by wind turbines. Strangely enough, it also needs a pricing system that allows the wind to “go first,” depriving other energy providers of their fair share of revenue.
To create the benefit of wind, a great deal of energy is required. Quite a bit of it is in the concrete base. There no doubt needs to be diesel fuel to transport the concrete base, and other fuels to actually make the base.
I imagine the reason that the wind turbine is being sold is because it either doesn’t work, or the subsidy that allowed it to be profitable has run out. Also, in many states, homeowners get full retail credit for the electricity that they send back to the grid (for solar panels generally, perhaps not wind turbines). The credit is very attractive, but it does not make any financial sense. It just ends up with the poorer customers who cannot afford to generate any of their own electricity being charged higher rates, so that they can subsidize the rich customers who can afford these ridiculous devices.
I remember asking this a couple of years back, but nobody took it up:
Has anyone looked into the “Fifth Law” claim that no device can deliver more energy than the amount of energy that initially went into building the device? I’m curious, but not $80+tax+shipping curious.
https://the-fifth-law.com/
In other words, it requires cheap energy to make a fuel powered motor.
When you see how much energy is required to build a factory, collect and pour metal into engine blocks etc … I could see this theory having merit.
I wonder why the author has formulated it?
Labor’s victory is not an improvement for oil and gas in the UK!
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/What-Labours-Victory-Means-for-UK-Oil-and-Gas.html
Bullets:
Labour’s proposed policies aim to accelerate the UK’s energy transition while relying heavily on the taxation of oil and gas profits to fund these initiatives.
Potential tax increases and a phase-out of new oil and gas drilling licenses could discourage investment and lead to a decline in the UK’s energy sector.
Labour’s plans could have broader implications for the country’s overall economy and its reputation as an energy investment destination.
From the article:
“When it comes to the energy transition, the two main parties in the UK don’t really differ much—except in the scale of their commitments to replacing oil, gas, and coal with wind, solar, and EVs. Labour, unsurprisingly, is the more ambitious transition champion. And now it will get a chance to try the policies it said in a manifesto that would turn the country into a clean energy superpower.”
Left, right…doesn’t matter it seems. The destination is the same: full speed ahead towards deindustrialization.
Ironic, for the nation that was the first to industrialize!
Well, it’s a bit sad to think of such a scenario and I hope in the end.
After all, Great Britain, or more precisely the British Empire, made the modern world.
The first real world globalization, the first pig iron fuelled with coke, the first types of steam engines that allowed the first massive-scale coal extraction, the first silk factory started by John Lombe, the first power loom, the first locomotive, the first production of stainless steel, the first iron warship and the Royal Navy that dominated nearly all the oceans, the list can go on.
And around 1850 with just 2% of the world’s population, Britain produced around half of the world’s manufactured goods.
For a tiny and rainy island to have accomplished all these is quite remarkable, if we all think about it.
And now? What does the future hold for the UK with these kinds of crazy energy policies?
“The future is not what it used to be”, so it seems…
Yet there would still be a lot of oil to be extracted in the North Sea waters, unconventional, of course.
A frontier play in a mature basin – the Kimmeridge Clay
https://geoexpro.com/a-frontier-play-in-a-mature-basin-the-kimmeridge-clay/
“In general, it can be assumed that petroleum expulsion efficiency from a source rock is about 2-12 %, suggesting that significant amounts of un-expelled oil and gas remain within the source rock and in the migration paths of the basin.
Knowing that about 45 billion barrels of oil reserves were primarily sourced from the Kimmeridge Clay, there is between 330 and 2,205 billion barrels left in the ground depending on whether a 2% or 12% expulsion factor is used.”
While it is true that the resource is there, how to extract it is a completely different matter. Fracturing thousands upon thousands of offshore wells is a different story than doing it on land like in the US.
It would be necessary to design new drilling vessels as well as improve the fracturing process itself. But I don’t think is “rocket science”. At what price is another story.
There is also a lot of coal to gasify under the North Sea. A LOT! Again, at what cost? I don’t know, but once upon a time when even drilling at 3000m of depth was considered impossible or too expensive, but now it has become “routine”. It can be done.
For the British people, however, I think their government should have invested in such possibilities, rather than relying now on sun and wind.
But who am I to judge, after all…
The issue is building an affordable chain of extraction and also of users of energy supply. Somehow, there must be enough benefit to users (that they can afford) for the extraction to take place. The system has to generate enough taxes to keep the government in operation, as well. Unfortunately, this is not something easy to model. EROEI calculations don’t go nearly far enough, and they don’t match of time properly. A huge front end investment needs to pay back quickly or it quickly becomes unaffordable. Governments have historically funded big front-end investments, but we have seen that they are going broke. This is a sign that we are already tapping energy supplies without an adequate return.
///tapping energy supplies without an adequate return.///
is the same as taking out a mortgage with no prospect of any future income
That is a good way of putting the situation.
I once knew a couple who, just before they both retired, bought a home with a mortgage that was maxed out on their total income before retirement. What is the world were they thinking?
my best retiree story, a couple i know from oregon—just sold everything, threw what was left into 2 suitcases, upped and left to come and live in uk
(he has a scottish mother) and an income to support themselves ok
fed up with trumpism, and couldnt stand the insanity of it any longer
it was extraction of colossal amounts of energy
and the production of iron at a volume that made it cheap as chips,
then most importantly, using that iron to create a consumer economy.
in the early 18th c, the first mass produced consumer item was the humble iron cooking pot—so cheap that everyone could afford one.
that was the base product of the industrial revolution, its production method was adapted to make everything else.
Yep, just like Harry Brearley of Sheffield brought affordable cutlery to the masses thanks to his invention: stainless steel. But it was only possible as long as the production of the South Yorkshire Coalfield lasted.
In any case, with my previous messages I just wanted to make it clear that other possibilities exist, more reliable than those currently proposed, namely wind turbines and solar panels, both still relying on fossil fuel btw.
However, these “new” fossil resources should be managed with respect and parsimony, but I don’t think that will ever happen.
When every election you hear politicians promising economic growth I think we, as a species, have no hope.
I think it is a sort of virus that has taken possession of the minds of the vast majority of populations.
I do not advocate for wasting energy, far from it. But it would seem that saving energy clashes with the current economic system and that therefore the only way of life that the “modern” human species has conceived is to burn and consume everything as quickly as possible, and in ever-increasing quantities to sell to everyone more and more things, as you have also repeatedly illustrated in your comments Norman, more than once.
It is just sad, if we all think about it…
The economy’s need for energy products is very closely related to a human’s need for food (human’s source of energy). We have an appetite that tells us that we need to keep consuming food. If we don’t, we get “grumpy.” If an economy doesn’t, it starts degrading. For example, roads and homes need constant repairs. We can ignore this, but ultimately they will fall apart if not taken care of, with energy products.
Getting an economy away from external energy products is as difficult as getting humans away from cooked food. We are now adapted to eating some of our diet from cooked food. Cutting down forests to make pans and to provide fuel for cooking food doesn’t work. A big part of our problem is expanding population; also, longer life spans.
“We have an appetite that tells us that we need to keep consuming food.”
Of course, but we have a limit of how much we can eat.
Instead, as far as everything else is concerned, most human beings want to “consume” more and more “stuff”, with no limits: buying a bigger house that requires more energy for heating/cooling, a bigger television, a bigger car!
Let’s just focus on the last one. You mentioned road repairs. Of course the roads need to be repaired but lately roads are lasting less and less due to the enormous increase in the mass of vehicles!
And it’s all related to the “Fourth power law”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_power_law
It basically states that: “The greater the axle load of a vehicle, the stress on the road caused by the motor vehicle increases in proportion to the fourth power of the axle load”
For example:
A normal, small ICE car of 1 ton has a load per axle of 0,5 ton.
A regular ICE SUV of 2 ton has a load per axle of 1 ton.
An electric suv of 3 ton has a load per axle of 1,5 ton.
Well, the ICE SUV will cause 16 times more damage to the road than the normal car, while the electric SUV 81 times more damage than the normal car!
Maybe we should slightly change priorities and awareness of our actions or not?
Do we still call ourselves an intelligent species? It doesn’t seem like it to me at all!
Once you view everything (not just engineering technologies but social technologies like language and religion) as being deterministically in service to breaking down energy gradients, it all makes sense and our intelligence keenly targeted towards what do seem, to most of us, strange and paradoxical ends.
@ Gian and Lydia
If we take the Fourth Power law and divide it by the Fifth Law we get the Pareto distribution.
ENERGY
Germany picks China to supply world’s most powerful wind turbines, EU upset
https://interestingengineering.com/energy/chinese-wind-turbines-europe
An order for 18.5 MW turbines made in China could mark the entry of Chinese turbine makers in Europe. Updated: Jul 05, 2024 07:51 AM EST Ameya Paleja
A recent announcement by the German wind farm developer Luxcara that it is picking a Chinese equipment manufacturer for its upcoming site has caused a storm in Europe. This pivotal moment could define the direction the European Union’s plans for green transition take over the next few years.
After the debut of electric vehicles, it is now the turn of wind turbines made in China to enter the European markets. Earlier this week, Luxcara announced that it had picked MingYang Smart Energy to supply its 18.5 MW turbines to supply 16 wind turbines to be installed by 2028.
This is an unprecedented move given that Europe-based equipment manufacturers have powered the EU’s push for renewable energy from wind farms. GE, Vestas, and Siemens have manufacturing facilities in Europe and regularly supply both onshore and offshore turbines to meet the increasing demands in Europe.
Is Chinese equipment better?
In a statement, Luxcara said it arrived before arriving at this decision; the company floated an international tender in 2023 and conducted a long and extensive due diligence exercise covering environmental, social, governance, and cybersecurity compliance in line with EU regulations.
Imagine that…the Chinese undercuts the competition again..and again …and again
Due diligence you know….
China has invested heavily in intellectual capital.
Dennis L.
And also into the many hands do light work mantra too 👐
Chairman Meow🙀
Germany can’t make them and neither can Europe . De industrialisation .
” Germany’s June industrial production data fell by an unexpected 2.5% and the same French figure by another unexpected – 2.1%. The annual figure for Germany is -6.67%.”
In an earlier post last month or so I had commented how listless Paris was inspite of the upcoming Olympics . No wonder .
”The French economy has barely grown over the past five years. This year, the IMF forecasts France to grow by a mere 0.7%. As a result, per capita GDP in real terms is barely above the pre-COVID level. In layman’s terms, this means no improvement in the standard of living. To illustrate the stagnation of the French economy, despite the expected tourism boom linked to the upcoming Summer Olympics in Paris, the service sector in France is performing worse than in Russia. ” .
What if this hurricane headed towards Houston causes nationwide “GAS SHORTAGES”?
Work from home mandated. Vote by mail. Fuel sales rationed. Airports closed. Schools closed…etc. etc.
NATIONWIDE PANIC!!!!
https://www.ventusky.com/23.000;-91.625
Why go through all that trouble when we can just have Dominion flip the votes?
I lived in Charlotte, NC and it happened with a severe gas shortage because of a storm disabled fuel supply in 2009
Lines for gas at some Charlotte stations
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — More than a week after Hurricane Ike’s strike, drivers across the Southeast are still bouncing between dry pumps and shuttered stations in a frustrating hunt for a fill-up – and they’re starting to get angry.
There are stations shut down in Nashville, Tenn., long lines in Atlanta and even fights breaking out in bucolic Blue Ridge mountain towns. In between the soccer moms and NASCAR dads, you’ll even find guys who play in the NFL waiting for gas.
It was not pleasant and scrambled to fill my tank, felt like I was living back in the 1970s
“Just a few weeks”
Can’t really recall, but it was long enough for people to bid up the price of used General Motors Geo Metros rice burners…they were sought after because of their mpg as good as hybrids….pickup truck were being dumped on the market
. A total of 14 oil refineries ceased production. Meanwhile, cargo ships and oil tankers were forced to wait offshore after their usual ports in Texas and western Louisiana were closed due to the storm.
Refineries were previously shut down just a few weeks before in anticipation of Hurricane Gustav, which caused a temporary rise in prices and scarce supplies. Restarting production takes time, and production had just re-started when Ike became a threat. Now with a bullseye on Galveston, oil production again came to a halt in Texas and platforms were again evacuated. ….shortages of gasoline, natural gas and home heating oil particularly in Tennessee and the Carolinas.
NHK on the Tokyo airport roach motel, descrbed as a labor/production/refinery bottleneck-
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=efRF9fNDLB4&t=0s
Airways mag digs a bit deeper, ending with a question-
“As the jet fuel shortage hits Japanese aviation by surprise, is it a tell-tale sign for the rest of the world that jet fuel production is at a decline—down more than 30% since 2019—due in part to the industry’s push for net-zero emissions?”
https://www.airwaysmag.com/new-post/jet-fuel-shortage-japanese-aviation
I have read that Chinese flights are way down since 2019 also.
https://www.travelweekly.com/Robert-Silk/US-China-nonstop-flights-roadblocks
Fewer Chinese students studying in the US is one reason, but it must be only a small part of the story. Deteriorating relationships and low world jet fuel supply. Falling yuan relative to the dollar.
https://skift.com/2024/06/27/how-india-china-direct-flights-went-from-539-to-zero/
How India-China Direct Flights Went From 539 … to Zero
ABD (anything but depletion) seems to be their explanatory modus operandi.
Agreed!
Kamala Harris says she doesn’t trust Trump regarding COVID-19 vaccine
This video seems to be from 2020. This is part of the “Don’t trust the other political party” narrative.
The country’s industrial sector used 15.5% less energy in 2023 compared to 2021 (before Russia’s invasion). Whether due to a lack of supply from renewable sources or periods of high demand, Belgium was a net importer of electricity for 60% of 2023.
https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/1123240/belgian-energy-consumption-at-lowest-level-since-1995
Other news .
https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/1124550/russian-gas-imports-into-belgium-are-on-the-rise
Brussel is an intermediate stopping point for natural gas imports. There is a plan to keep LNG out, if it is really headed to Turkey.
Notably:
What did Belgium expect!
Nothing to see here people, move along please!
From the latest edition of the Statistacal Review of energy I reported below some of the values of Belgium primary energy consumption, in Gigajoule per-capita.
2019: 230.9
2020: 206.8
2021: 228.9
2022: 214.5
2023: 197.8
The 2023 reduction is a big one, definitely.
That trend spells halving by 2030. Davidina may be right about his timeline, since he is in America. But Europe? No way.
if Europe doesn’t want to stay in The Core, then I will accept their decision.
they seem in a hurry to exit before 2030.
Looks like it is not 100% their choice. But regardless, they are exiting the industrialized world.
“The Advanced Economies are headed for a downfall”
Yep, definitely EVENTUALLY, but my lesson from the last 15 years of being a doomer, is that it’s impossible to predict timing, PLUS the world is bifurcating.
Obviously the US is a bankrupt Empire, doing all the stupid things that dying Empires do, but economically and politically it is still has huge momentum.
Napoleon lost the battle of Borodino, but momentum kept his army moving forward to occupy Moscow, where it then started to disintegrate and failed entirely on its subsequent retreat.
The Soviet Union seemed to disappear very quickly to Western observers, but the rot would have been visible to its own citizens “We pretend to work and they pretend to pay us”. Is the US now as rotten on the inside as the Soviet Union pre collapse? What about the EU?
Anyway Gail, I’d like to see your analysis of the impact of the bifurcation, rise of BRICS, de-dollarisation etc.
I don’t think the math works anymore treating the world economy as a homogenous entity. It looks to me like the Hegemonic West is committing economic and cultural suicide, due to a deranged ideology.
Contrast that with Russia, China, the rising countries in Asia and Africa et al. If they can stay out of the clutches of the Hegemon and walk the path of common sense, they could see several decades of progress as the West heads into poverty (and maybe localised collapse) , thus releasing more resources to them.
Thoughts?
The economic and cultural suicide of the West, as you rightly put it, is not a separate process, but rather the global Superorganism redirecting resources away from their least productive uses and regions, as it attempts to adapt to an increasingy constrained energy situation.
That is clever!
Dennis L.
Thanks for your ideas. The story of the Advanced Nations collapsing (for whatever reason) would indeed leave more resources for other nations to continue, without the high consumption, to continue for a while longer. In fact, this seems like a possible scenario for a while.
But the alternative, of major competitors going down at the same time, has been suggested by Joseph Tainter.
I don’t really know what is ahead. I am not convinced that the remaining group will be very unified. Some parts will do better than others, but the tendency will be to “dissipate available energy resources.” The narrative of preventing climate change will disappear. It is a view of Advanced Nations.
What is your response to Doomberg’s argument (he had a great interview on Canadian prepper a few days ago) that energy is not really physically (geologically) constrained. He states that all our problems are political ones and that we are headed for WWIII if we don’t get our shit together.
He thinks Candu reactors and fast breeders are the future for electricity and that there are huge deposits of ff in many many locales but we need the political will to “do the deals required”.
I don’t agree with him, but no one is asking my opinion.
My current guess:
Releasing more exogenous energy into the heat sink of spaceship earth is not a good idea.
Dennis L.
While I do think that our use of fossil fuels has devastated the natural world’s ecology the past few centuries (mainly from agriculture and urban development) I have yet to see any convincing evidence that the biosphere will not flourish due to the increased CO2 input. The climate change narrative is nonsensical from a fact based perspective in my hillbilly opinion.
In fact from a Gaian perspective (since we seem to be on a superorganism kick in this thread) the combination of increased CO2 AND a reentry into another glacial advance seems to be a perfect prescription for a super charged incredible biological explosion, both in total mass and in diversity.
We came very close to a total multicellular life extinction event during the last glacial maximum (due to shocking and dangerously low CO2 levels).
This will not happen this go around as the ice advances.
My metaphysical views perhaps are coloring my objective opinion of this “reality” but it seems that the 3-4 D earth of this realm will simply shrug off civilization effortlessly and humans can “try again” to get 3-4 D existence correct.
In the end none of it is “real” anyway.
Crg , Doomsberg knows BS about energy matters . I think he did a podcast with Nate ( can be wrong) where he exposed his ignorance on the issue . I am in your camp , waste of time listening to him on energy matters . File 13 .
we are one card in the house of many
pull one out and the rest go down because we are all interdependent.
there may be denial of that
but it wont alter future reality
really?
do you seriously think that if the UK has a severe economic collapse, then the rest of the world will have to go down with it at the exact same time?
exactly what does the UK provide that is vital to the rest of the world?
Asian economies certainly have decades of future prosperity ahead of them unlike many Western nations, mostly European to be honest.
The United States, on the other hand, can carry on for a long time. They still have a lot of coal, a lot of oil&gas both at home and close to the border (Canadian tar sands), a net exporter of food, still a conspicuous amount of minerals.
Europe? None of this!
We are playing a zero-sum game.
In a finite planetary system the growth of one is the decline of another.
If China, India and all of Southeast Asia continue to grow, and they obviously will, the energy and material resources that were once destined for Europeans will be diverted to Asia.
Europe simply no longer has the demographic or economic power, and obviously not even the military power, to think it can sit at the gaming table.
The decline that is already underway in several European nations will begin to proceed much more quickly over the next 10 years.
In fact, China has just surpassed the average european energy consumption per capita
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/China-Surpasses-Europe-in-Per-Capita-Energy-Consumption.html
decades of prosperity is too strong a word. how about “a decade of prosperity” or less?
Well, technically if the China-Russia alliance will persist into the future, Russia can supply China with copious amount of hydrocarbons.
Plus Russia has a lot of coal reserves untouched: Lena Basin (around 1,5 trillion metric tons of resource) and Tunguska basin (around 2,2 trillion metric tons of resource). Barely untouched, they are in the arctic.
The vast majority of coal extraction in Russia is actually made in the southern region of Russia.
If even just a bit more of 10% of these resources can be extracted (let’s say 400 billion tons), it means that they can fuel China’s current coal consumption (4,4 billion tons) for around 100 years, not bad right?
India has joined probably a bit late to the fossil fuel party but has a still lot of coal on his land.
The pollution will go up like crazy, but hey, this is just how the game works it seems.
Transporting coal overland requires good roads and quite a bit of diesel for fuel for trucks.
It is not clear to me how much this can be expanded. This is an article about the current situation.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-imports-mongolian-coal-set-rise-transport-improves-2024-01-11/
” Well, technically if the China-Russia alliance will persist into the future ”
What may be technically possible may not be economically feasible . Like this image . Burning precious diesel to transport coal .
https://qz.com/1129087/chinas-coal-demand-is-causing-a-massive-traffic-jam-in-mongolia
Right. Gian ignores that coal is produced with diesel. Given large enough deposits, one could electrify the entire thing transportation network. But mining machines will not work without diesel.
Well, we can still produce diesel with the fischer tropsch process…Or we can always return to steam powered shovel!
Let me clarify my thoughts btw. When I use the term “a nation can go on” I mean that the basic need can be stustained like a reliable electric grid (therefore perfectly preserved food), fuel for agriculture, or heating where will be needed.
Other extra fancy stuff? A new car every 7 years? Sorry, you can’t have it.
An holiday to the other part of the world? Nope. Big shopping malls full of useless clothes made of plastics? Nope, again.
A lot of people will lose the job? Of course.
You can’t always have everything. After all, aren’t we on a blog where we discuss the collapse of industrial society?
In the city where I live, in Italy, in 1940/50 the car was for a few, 90% of people moved by trolleybuses. The existence of those people (like that of my grandparents), their jobs, even their entertainment proceeded normally. Obviously, their entertainment could be a film at the cinema or a walk along the seafront accompanied by an ice cream, certainly not driving 200 km to go and eat in a starred restaurant. In the 40’s and 50’s Italy was barely an industrial power but the essential services were guaranteed!
People will have to accept the new way of life.
When the sistem will begin to break apart there will be nation that will “survive” better than other.
For istance: who is better positioned between Italy, Sweden, UK, Finland or the US in growing a lot of food? Who has still hydrocarbons and coal left?
I hope I have clarified my thoughts.
Oh I know. I visited my hometown Bologna a few weeks back. I visited some cured meat operations because here in Russia my farm is starting to produce meat. Whereas those ageing rooms are high tech and with a lot of complexity, here I will just bulldoze a cavern in a hill, put a heater, a sprayer, and some thermal mass. Italian food related machines are outrageously expensive. We will still produce good bresaola.
our entire existence depends on consumption, to sustain that consumption requires a constantly increasing rate.
periodic depressions can slow it down–yes–but a sustained slowdown brings on conflict—as ww2.
wages rely on consumption—that is how we pay each other.
you can’t pay wages without the consumption that is derived from energy conversion,
printing money on rolls, and tearing off what you need just doesnt work.
fantasing about a no growth economy is just that–a fantasy.—there will be no ”economy”.
yet growth will cease—none of us want to imagine the consequences of that.
” India has joined probably a bit late to the fossil fuel party but has a still lot of coal on his land. ”
Problem is that it is of extremely poor quality . India is the second largest importer of coal after China .
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1279667/leading-coal-importing-countries-worldwide/
” We are playing a zero-sum game. ”
No we are not .
” The United States, on the other hand, can carry on for a long time. ”
It cannot . It is a net importer of resources with a trade deficit of $ 600-700 billion per year .
We are bozos on the same bus , if it crashes then we all go down . Read my reply to Fred .
Only 600 billion? We should be so lucky!
Fred , you are wrong . Once the West goes down so will the East and vice versa . This is not a ” net zero” sum game . There is no guarantee that the resources that the West will free because of an earlier collapse be available to the East to continue BAU . What if the West uses ” scorched earth” policy ? There is many a slip between the tongue and the lip . IC is a big system and then there are subsystems e.g finance , logistics ,labour , agro etc . An analogy would be that IC is the human body with all the subsystems — digestive system , nervous system , renal system , liver system etc . If a subsystem shuts down the full system shuts down . The current IC is built on an economic principle called ” economics of scale ” . When any of the subsystems breaches the principle it will shutdown the subsystem and the full system (IC) . David Korowicz has termed this as SSF or Synchronized System Failure . I am a fan of David Korowicz .
it’s the future, I think it’s much more unpredictable than you think.
you may not think so, but I do think that the East has maybe a decade or so to try to detach themselves from any major economic ties with the West.
to make a gross generalization.
if the East can establish every necessary “subsystem” and the West doesn’t, then of course the East can continue at a higher economic level than the West, if the East can detach itself.
otherwise, in the real world it is smaller weaker countries that have been and will continue to suffer severe economic problems sooner, and those countries could be in the East or West, but especially it looks like it will be European countries leading the way down in the West.
In support of my argument . This comment is by ‘ Hideaway’ on POB and who posts occasionally here .
”Once we have gone past peak oil, with oil production declining at an accelerating rate, all the materials to build anything will not be available. They all rely upon a growing quantity of oil. Once this oil production decline sets in, the feedback loops of necessary equipment to gain access to oil will fall/fail just like everything else. Those huge tractors and trucks will struggle to get the fuel they need, exacerbating the problems in cities, making the building or making anything extremely difficult.
Once collapse happens we wont be able to access the remaining oil and gas. It’s no longer the matter of drilling a 100 ft deep well with simple technology to gain access to oil. Any future oil comes from either deep down with horizontal drills and fracking, or deep offshore and similar hard to get places that require complex technology to gain access to. Without the complex technology after collapse, the oil may as well be on Mars.
But wait, it’s worse. As entropy breaks down everything we build, to build new we will need lots of mined new minerals, which also require modern highly complex processes to gain access to. We used up all the simple and close mineral deposits of high grade. Even gathering old metals spread throughout old abandoned cities requires transport, how will this be done without oil and probably horses that have all been eaten during the collapse??
Modern civilization is over for good once it fails, there are no second chances. What you state at the end of planned and controlled contraction of the economy and population is what I’ve been advocating for the entire time and we should have been doing for many decades. Instead what’s happened is we’ve gone into massive overshoot in every area of modernity and population, so what’s left is to try and reduce future suffering as much as possible by contracting economy and population as much as possible.
The problem is no-one wants that, so we continually get told stories of magical outcomes from something that’s not physically possible, and everyone embraces further ‘growth’ calling more destruction of the biosphere ‘green’, by burning more fossil fuels and destroying more natural areas to gain the minerals and metals necessary… All while further depleting fossil fuels and going deeper into overshoot.
I am afraid that Hideaway is correct!
The future will be like the past.
The workers back to their shacks and tenements, no more driving cars and playing with smartphones.
Going back to the flophouse.
https://youtu.be/FNV1vG365Z0?si=jbKN4a2mROiA3lyt
(Surprisingly, it seems to be racially integrated in late 1890s, since they treated ‘working class’ of all races equally. A Vietnamese migrant labor, Nguyen That Thanh, entered USA in around 1912 and swept snow at New York, and apparently he didn’t feel discriminated by other workers. He would later be known as one of his many nicknames, namely Ho Chi Minh.)
Ho Chi Minh Revenge
The spotted lanternfly (SLF) is an invasive species that threatens fruit crops and trees. Native to China, Vietnam, and Taiwan, the SLF first appeared in the United States in Pennsylvania in 2014 and has since spread to 15 states. The SLF is a planthopper with red underwings and polka-dotted forewings that eats a wide variety of plants, including grapes, hops, stone fruits, and hardwood trees. When feeding, the SLF excretes a sticky, sugary fluid that can cause sooty mold, which can further damage plants
California winegrowers on edge over pest that could ‘devastate’ lucrative industry
California wine leaders address the one bug that could hurt the industry
The California Association of Winegrape Growers (CAWG) is urging other winegrowers to be on high alert for spotted lanternflies that are sharing egg masses, as some have been found that may produce adult bugs in the coming weeks — with peak populations expected in late summer or early fall.
“It’s terrifying to know that a small pest has the potential to devastate the livelihood of our growers and ravage an industry that is so vital to the California economy,” a CAWG representative told Fox News Digital this week.
California winemakers produce 80% of America’s wine. The state is also the fourth-largest wine producer in the world, according to the Wine Institute, a public policy advocacy organization located in California.
The California wine industry generates $73 billion in annual economic activity within the state of California and $170.5 billion for the U.S. economy, according to the Wine Institute.
What goes around, cones around
Right up there with a shortage of chocolate.
Dennis L.
“The future will be like the past.”
yes but first the near future will be like the near past.
the rest of the 2020s and probably much of the 2030s will be like the 2010s.
later the 2040s or 2050s may revert to become like the 19th or 18th or 17th century.
que sera sera.
Jim Kunstler has an article that some of us will agree with:
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/who-turned-off-the-gaslight/
Later it says:
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2024/07/05/democrats-hint-at-assassination-in-response-to-supreme-court-immunity-decision/
Paul Craig Roberts links to a Zerohedge article:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/democrats-hint-assassination-repsonse-supreme-court-immunity-decision
This is rather bizarre, but maybe we live in a world with bizarre thinking. Democrats don’t want their false statements of recent past years to be publicized. They would like people to think that infinite debt will save the world. There are no limits, especially energy limits.
Alex Soros – Implies Assassinating Trump
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/alex-soros-is-a-nut-job-implies-assassinating-trump/
Wasn’t it Trump who said (not just implied) that he could shoot someone in Times Square with impunity?
I don’t know, Norman. You tell us, since you are the only commenter here who is so obsessed with Trump that they follow his every word and deed.
What I have read is that during the 2016 election campaign, Trump remarked jokingly at a campaign stop at Dordt College in Sioux Center, Iowa, that:
“I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters, OK? It’s, like, incredible.”
If you’ll check, you’ll probably find that he never said or implied that he could shoot someone in Times Square, nor that he could shoot anybody with impunity.
So if I were a fact checker, in all fairness I would have to say that you are guilty of spreading misinformation there.
oh well
if it was 5th avenue and not times square—i can see how that would make all the difference
please accept my sincere apologies fro spreading misinformation
Don’t mention it. At OFW the misinformation doesn’t spread very far, does it? But be careful when they interview you on the BBC.
Times Square of Fifth Avenue is immaterial, I agree, but the word “impunity” is a huge misrepresentation. He never said or implied that he could get away with shooting someone without facing legal or criminal proceedings, only that his base would still vote for him. So it was a comment on his view of his supporters’s attitude to him being one of adoration, NOT about him considering himself above the law.
Quite honestly, if Trump is half as bad as you frequently imply he is (and in all fairness, I think he probably is about half as bad), then it shouldn’t be necessary to “tweak” or “twist” his statements or “take” stuff “out of context.” Quoting verbatim should be quite damming enough.
Tim
Sexual predator is another term for extreme weakness
Trump is on record as saying he is just that, his first wife had to be bought off to prevent her telling the truth.
weakness is the last thing you want for the leader of a major nuclear power
add to that the list of business failures and the list of proven lies.
Yes—i do concern myself with Trump, because his insanity affects the rest of the world, including me, one way or another.
Offering to lift pollution restrictions in return for $1bn seems to be a case in point (but of course AGW is just a hoax, isn’t it?)
In the past, powerful men had big harems. In some cultures, men can have as many wives as they can afford. This approach tends to maximize the number of children living to maturity, according to Peter Turchin. It was well known that John Kennedy had lady friends besides his wife. In fact, this type of behavior has historically been permitted for powerful men. The press ignored the situation. The women’s movement has tried to change this.
Also, we have all heard that Elon Musk has something like eight children, by various women.
Norman, Donald Trump is a perfect gentleman. Everyone who doesn’t suffer from TDS knows that.
it doesn’t bother you that Biden used to shower with his pre-pubescent step daughter? And that the behavior caused her great turmoil and trauma? That it doesn’t bother you that he can’t resist sniffing kids’ hair in public?
What he has gotten up to in private I have no idea, but this video shows what he does in public.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hh0PBr6ZUN0
If there’s one thing worse than a sexual predator, it’s a sexual predator who preys on children. But if you’re OK with a creepy pedophile having his grubby hands on the nuclear trigger, well then, that’s you happy.
And yes, Norman, AGW is just a hoax, absolutely. You have no proof whatsoever that it is occurring. You have no understanding of the science of climate. And you believe all kinds of crap just because the relevant propaganda is catapulted at you and you are programmed to lap it up.
Trump or Biden, Sunak or Starmer, it’s all the same to me. I’m not a fan of any of them and I don’t have a derangement syndrome about any of them either. You’ve been letting Trump live rent-free inside your mind for the past eight years. That is derangement, my friend. You are deranged. Please get psychological help before you hurt somebody.
Incidentally, I heard a joke today.
“Replacing Rishi with Starmer is like being a kid in hospital in the seventies and being told the Jimmy Savile visit has been canceled, only to hear the sound of a didgeridoo coming down the corridor.” 🙂
The assets vs labor struggle always ends up with asset holders moving to Switserland until the storm is over and they can start selling plywood. Again.
I am afraid what the world gets is civil war.
I have talked about that for quite a while
It will end up like a Latin American kleptocracy, with the landowner’s personal troops holding absolute power
Maybe so, if the landowner can somehow equip and train troops. Also feed and house them.
That’s what i said. Assets vs labor.
I thought there was general agreement that, in broad terms, our current state of chaos was caused by energy depletion (and rising costs) and shortage of the material that supports our civilised way of life. (This is world wide, not just USA)
Are we now to go along with Kuntslers rant, that everything, Covid, J6 and the rest was a joint creation of the dems and the FBI/?
were the j6 rioters FBI agents, or paid by them?
How could the FBI turn the j6 protest into a riot?
I was under the impression that the Floyd incident was real. Are we to now assume that it wasn’t—or was somehow faked?
This must then also presume that Trump is not a sexual predator, con artist convicted crook and hangs onto the fantasy that his election was stolen, when multiple courts have rejected this.–Are all those course being corrupted by the dems, Obama or whatever?
So far, Kuntsler hasn’t gone along with Clinton trafficking children, maybe he’s saving that for later.
Looking in from the UK, it is a fascinating train of thought, I wonder where it comes from
Self-organizing systems behave strangely.
The “Floyd incident” was real, but the publicity it got was absurd. I don’t know if we know the whole story.
There seemed to be a lot of evidence that the election was stolen–lots of reports of ballots from nursing homes and perhaps other places being voted for Biden and dumped in unmonitored collection boxes–then counted at the last minute to give Biden a victory.
We are dealing with a system that gives us two different “versions” of the truth–or maybe more than two different versions of the truth. When people figure out that the version that they have been told is fraudulent, they will become very unhappy. If the fraudulent story goes with “not enough goods and services to go around,” they will be willing to fight whoever is close at hand for what they consider their own fair share.
Pensions are going to be a major problem. No country will have enough output to provide pensioners what they thought was promised. Part of the civil war will be between young and old.
This is why unstaffed drop boxes are a major issue. This is a zerohedge post from today:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/wisconsin-supreme-court-reinstates-unstaffed-drop-boxes-ahead-2024-election
Wisconsin Supreme Court Reinstates Unstaffed Drop Boxes Ahead Of 2024 Election
I expect that this ruling will be appealed to the Supreme Count before the November election. The Supreme Court will likely declare that Unstaffed Drop Boxes cannot be used–there is too much potential for fraud. This ruling will be another thing that sets off major conflict between the two sides.
Norman, in reply to your excellent list of questions, Santa Claus is real and he really does come down everybody’s chimney on Christmas Eve.
If you think this is a conspiracy theory told by adults to entertain children, then please explain how so many people could be in on it?
I noticed this today on Med Page Today:
https://www.medpagetoday.com/popmedicine/popmedicine/110901
Why Is Doctor Pay Decreasing and What Can We Do About It?
— It’s time to take back control of our profession
Also, I would add that frustration at the exorbitant costs of the US medical system is at a high level. And trust in the medical system is at a low level.
The article mentioned factors such as cutbacks in Medicare spending and an increasing number of physicians working for hospital organizations as causing the problem.
An interesting finding:
I think another reason is that plastic surgery tends to be highly elective, and tends to be purchased by wealth members of the economy. Income of plastic surgeons because of this.
Since they do not provide health anyway, this is immaterial.
Economists incorrectly use the terminology “leverage.”
In physics, levers have the property that the amount of energy that goes in is also the amount of energy that comes out.
The terminology “excavator” would be more appropriate.
Analogously, they may generally replace “growth” with “deepening pit”. It would then be easier to gain insight into the risks this entails.
I sometimes show debt with its time-shifting ability as pulling the economy forward. This only works if there are inexpensive resources of many kinds available–both energy and other resources. A whole system needs to be in place to make additions to the current economy feasible, as well.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/38-debt-with-its-time-shifting-ability.png
I do agree with you about adding debt really leading to a deepening pit. And an outcome much like that of a Ponzi Scheme.
Also, see my comment about the problems of Hong Kong.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2024/06/22/the-advanced-economies-are-headed-for-a-downfall/comment-page-4/#comment-462932
Thought during shower time:
Information is in effect energy. If one knew the exact location of an asteroid with the cubic mile of Pt, returning it to earth would have significant, pollution free, at first approximation, energy, H. One could equate the information to the net energy gained. I have no concerns over the efficiency, there is no exogenous energy gain and with conventional energy we currently conveniently ignore the pollution and climate change costs. Include pollution costs, low entropy energy dumps and the cost would be higher. Spaceship earth is covering that cost. Have been told it is a finite earth.
Pt is seemingly not necessary to convert H to electricity, saw a demonstration at MREA, did not actually verify the catalysts, could be plugged into an outlet for all I know.
I am becoming a big fan of non exogenous energy sources for earth, redistribution within limits is probably okay, cooling large nuclear reactors may have some nasty side effects.
Don’t blame me for becoming interested in climate, it is this site’s fault; much can be learned here.
Looking for a cubic mile of Pt. Information converted to energy.
Dennis L.
Dennis
You still never—unless I’ve missed it—explain what you would actually do with it—in practical terms, once you got hold of it
Sorry,
Solar to electricity, electricity to H for storage, H in fuel cells of motive power equipment or for storage. Electric forklifts already have H fuel cells in place of batteries. Catalysts are what make it work, Pt is a very useful catalyst.
No exogenous heat, the fusion reactor runs in space, the solar energy is collected and redistributed both temporally and geographically. The net energy to earth is the same, it is all natural.
Fossil fuels are going to leave us, inconvenient or not. We are getting weird weather which took out a dam in MN and apparently one in WI.
Unfortunately, Pt is hard to mine, very expensive. It was made in a supernova, industry on a large scale. Whether it is only .1% of the nova, who cares? This is universe scale. We won’t make it with what is on our finite world. Say, .1% of what is in the solar system, that should be a good start.
The only shortage we have is a cubic mile of Pt. Information on where to find it and conversion to energy would be a very interesting, simple math problem of the energy equivalence of information.
Dennis L.
so what you seem to be saying Dennis, is that we have all the necessary ideas, but none of the knowledge or technology to put any of it to use in any respect whatsoever?
Or, are ever likely to have
that would appear to be our ultimate shortage
which is like me saying—”I intend to mine the moons of Saturn”, then run into the oops moment of not knowing how.–and nobody else knows how.
I’m full of ideas like that.
Sorry for the misunderstanding.
We have the knowledge and engineering to convert water into H and O, O will be a waste product in this case.
We have the knowledge to store H
We have the knowledge and engineering to convert H into electricity.
We have the knowledge and engineering to make vast fields of solar panels to make the electricity, in this case intermittency is not an issue. With earth based solar, no exogenous energy other than ambient sunlight.
We lack cheap Pt.
We appear to be on the verge of having a freighter for space, Starshsip.
Musk is mass producing satellites, not much of a change to mass produce space drones and explore for Pt.
The solar system is vast, infinite for the foreseeable future.
We need information of where the Pt is in the solar system.
Once we have that we need to “mine” the Pt, transportation should be easy, space is frictionless and has the added benefit of gravity assist.
We have AI maturing incredibly rapidly to assist us in our search. Experts claimed this was years away, we need it now, the thumb on the scale?
We do not have to turn spaceship earth into a wasteland.
We cannot look forward to a fossil fuel age.
Life without energy will be brutal and short; the ability to wield an axe may well be more mighty than the pen, or keyboard.
Dennis L.
What you are saying all makes a lot of sense, Dennis, when viewed from a certain perspective.
But there are lots of imponderables, and the devil is in the details.
I am not sure what Norman is going to say in reply, but I can imagine him shaking his head as he says it.
Space is indeed frictionless, which makes it more slippery than the most polished parquet flooring or ice rink that can be imagined. With no place to stand and everything in danger of slipping away at any moment It will be very easy to slip up in space.
Then there is all that inertia/momentum to deal with. Every time you want to change velocity, which includes slowing down, speeding up, or going in a different direction, you need to throw some mass out in the opposite direction or plan your journey to take advantage of passing masses that can provide assistance. It IS rocket science, and it IS extremely tricky and unforgiving if you or your AI pal gets it wrong.
At the same time, I realize that the problems are potentially solvable and that just because I could never solve them doesn’t mean that smarter, more adept, more motivated, better organized, and better financed people couldn’t solve them, OR that they haven’t done so already.
It will be fun seeing how Elon and company manage to cope with the problems of mining the Solar System, and we shall enjoying seeing them try. After all, this is the beginning of a great adventure.
Dennis
AI cannot actually ”do” anything
this is the collective trap that some of humaninity is falling into.
AI will ”save” us—but it wont
AI will not mine asteroids. It might do the necessay calculations, but not provide the hardware despite fantasies to the contrary
i used to try to tell HK that—he was convinced that arithmetic would solve all problems too.
I didn’t know you were one of Henry Kissinger’ associates, Norman.
I’m impressed. The aphrodisiac of power and foreign policy is not missionary work. I love all that stuff.
As for AI, not being able to do stuff, what can I say?
https://memes.getyarn.io/yarn-clip/469e9c6e-7865-4c46-830b-ed3a049ab542/gif
China Is Building World’s First “Super Dam” Along The Yarlung Zangbo River
https://www.iflscience.com/china-is-building-worlds-first-super-dam-along-the-yarlung-zangbo-river-72817
“In total, it could harness triple the amount of hydroelectric power currently captured by the Three Gorges power stations, according to state media.”
Aroud 60 GW on nameplate power capacity.
What a crazy amount of power and energy that could be produced!
The energy appetite of the country seems limitless!
After all, for now just “only” 500 million chinese belong to the middle class.
There is still a long way to go.
I am wondering if China hopes to take control of water supply that rightfully belongs to its neighbor. This Wikipedia article seems to point in that direction.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brahmaputra_River
Wikipedia directed me to this river:
I don’t notice China anywhere on the list.
According to Wikipedia:
Regarding the new dam, it says:
If it is not diverted and one ignores evaporation effects, does this affect water usage downstream? I suppose at low flow periods, not an expert, don’t know.
Dennis L.
I notice the article you link to talks about the controversial natural of the dam, and the fact that similar problems are occurring elsewhere:
Exactly, the Iraq situation is tragic regarding the water issue.
The video belows explains the situation.
Why Iraq’s great rivers are dying
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_c7AuSQdvow
Around min 2:00 it is said that Turkey has built around 20 dams on the Euphrates river and and on the tributaries, another 10 dams on the Tigris as well.
Syria and Iran made also their share of “damage”.
All these dams impact Iraq’s water resources severely.
that dam on the nile is certain to cause trouble
eygpt runs short of water–and thus food.
conflict ensues
suez canal gets closed
another swathe of africa goes to war
Analysis of the 2024 UK general election. I have picked various quotes from the newspapers. Labour has won 412 seats against 121 for the Conservatives.
A lot of comment centres around the fact that the UK uses a “first past the post electoral system” – NOT proportional representation – and the effect that that has on the results.
FROM THE TELEGRAPH
The election result is the most distorted in history, after Labour won nearly two thirds of seats with just a third of the popular vote. Labour has won 412 constituencies – 63.7 per cent of the seats available – with a vote share of just 33.8 per cent.
The 30 point gap between the popular vote and seat share makes this the most skewed result ever, far outpacing the previous 22 point gap recorded in 2001 under Tony Blair.
Labour secured just over 700,000 more votes than Mr Corbyn in 2019, one percentage point more, but managed to pick up more than 200 additional seats.It hands Sir Keir Starmer a majority similar to Tony Blair’s in 1997, when Labour won 43.3 per cent of the vote.
Nigel Farage’s Reform party secured 4.1 million votes but won only four seats, equating to more than a million votes per constituency won. The Greens won four seats with 1.9 million votes. By contrast, the Liberal Democrats won 71 seats with only 3.5 million votes, almost 600,000 fewer than Reform. This is because the Lib Dem votes were more concentrated in fewer seats, whereas Reform’s support was spread more evenly across Britain.
Combined, Reform and the Conservatives gained 37.9 per cent of the vote, but collectively have just 19 per cent of seats. Left-wing parties gained 43.8 per cent of the vote but took up 66 per cent of seats.
However, the 2024 election has seen the biggest swing from the Tories to Labour since the Second World War.Sir Keir achieved a Conservative to Labour swing of 11 per cent – beating Mr Blair’s best swing of 10.2 per cent in 1997.The swing was only exceeded by the 12 per cent achieved when Clement Attlee toppled Winston Churchill in 1945.
Despite Sir Keir’s crushing victory, the results reveal a divided nation, with a strong performance by third parties and independents meaning that the share of seats won with a vote share less than 40 per cent has spiked dramatically. In 2024, 40.3 per cent of seats were won with a vote share of less than 40 per cent.The figure is double the previous high of 2010, when 16.3 per cent of seats were won with less than 40 per cent of the vote.
Reform is a sort of renegade Tory party, more nationalistic and somewhat neo-Thatcherite. In several seats, it polled more than the Tories, and in some Reform’s splitting of the right-wing vote caused the Tories to lose seats that they might otherwise have retained or won.
FROM THE INDEPENDENT
“Political scientist Professor Sir John Curtice noted overnight, as the vote counting was in full swing, that in the 173 seats lost by the Tory Party, a whopping 124 saw the Reform vote greater than the margin of the Conservatives’ defeat.
This number likely grew as more seats were declared. Mr Curtice noted that of these 173 seats, 99 went to Labour, 19 to the Liberal Democrats, two to nationalists and four to Reform itself.
Curtice pointed out that Labour’s share of the vote, while up spectacularly in Scotland since the 2019 election, was down in Wales and barely changed in England. Of course, Labour – and the revived Liberal Democrats – needed to be trusted enough to win Tory seats. But Farage undoubtedly gave them a helping hand.”
=========
There was actually a swing from Labour to Reform in Wales. The Tories had 14 seats in Wales in 2019, but now they have not a single one.
I see no great enthusiasm for the Labour Party here in the UK. Their leader Keir Starmer is lacklustre and has had to spend time distancing himself from the period when Jeremy Corbyn was leader and suspected of anti sea mite ism.
For most people, their desire was simply to get rid of the Tories. First there was the scandal of Partygate, when Tory MPs on one occasion were caught holding a party during the lockdown. Then there was Boris and his little lies and his imperious habit of not sacking MPs who had misbehaved. Then came the fiasco of Liz Truss. Her tenure caused interest rates to rise and caused a lot of people to suffer higher mortgage payments – direct financial suffering.
After Liz Truss, I saw no way in which the Tories would not suffer disaster at the general election.
The desire to see the Tories gone caused a lot of voters to vote tactically. That is surely what caused the Lib Dems to increase the number of their MPs from 11 to 61. The Lib Dems are a total non-entity of a party these days, with a real wally for a leader.
In Scotland, the SNP had its problems, of course. Peter Murrell, the husband of former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, was been charged in connection with the embezzlement of funds from the Scottish National Party. The case has not yet come to court.
The SNP’s MPs are down from 48 to 10 now. The SNP was the third party, but now it is behind the Lib Dems, who now have 61 MPs compared to 11 before.
Labour has been the big gainer in Scotland. Many Scots abhor the Tories at the best of times, and the Lib Dems have never achieved much in Scotland. Any talk of the breakup of the UK is firmly off the agenda now.
The US Senate gives two votes to each state, no matter how high or how low its population. Thus, Alaska, Wyoming and North Dakota get as much representation as New York, California, and Texas. If US elections were based solely on the approach for choosing senators, the results would be expected to be skewed toward what rural states want.
The House of Representatives is elected based much more on a population-based approach. The number of representatives of each state is revised every ten years, based on the results of the latest census.
The US’s approach to choosing a president indirectly uses a kind of average of these two methods. According to Wikipedia,
“each state casts as many electoral votes as the total number of its Senators and Representatives in Congress, while (per the Twenty-third Amendment, ratified in 1961) Washington, D.C., casts the same number of electoral votes as the least-represented state, which is three.”
There are far more members of the House of Representatives than the Senate, so indirectly the population-weighted approach gets most weight.
I wonder if the UK’s new system indirectly gives more weight toward rural areas.
According to a government website, “Constituencies must now have populations within 5% of the ‘electoral quota’ of 73,393, except for five protected island seats such as Ynys Môn. Previously, closeness to the quota had been one of several factors and had not been limited to a set range.”
The UK’s voting system hasn’t changed. As you said there’ve been more frequent changes to constituency boundaries, trying to keep them all close to the average size.
As far as I can see, the new ‘Labour’ government has won 65% of Commons seats on 34% of the popular vote. It’s highly un-proportional. But most results in my lifetime have been the same … just not quite as un-fair.
Proportional representation for the UK parliament was being discussed in …. 1918.
60% voter turnout in the UK. It is clear that the electorate is disillusioned. 33% of the vote for Labour is less than Corbyn’s 40% back in 2019 but works against a Tory govt with only 22% of the vote.
Only 4 seats for Reform but check out the percentage who voted for them – equal to or higher than the amount that voted Lib Dem – around 14%. Lib Dem gets 61 seats with 12% of the vote. Reform gets 4 seats with 14% of the vote.
Confused? Welcome to the UK. Now you know a bit more about how we feel about politics and this probably explains the low voter turnout somewhat
No Longer Great Britain has finally been hitting its last legs.
I doubt whether it will exist in 10 years.
Considering from geopolitical point of view (and mainly for the 2 active big wars, which heavily affect Europe affairs), reading Israeli newspapers today, I’ve seen that they are happy for the first lady.
On the second front, we have to see if anything will change about Ukraine-Russia, but I don’t think so.
The Status of U.S. Oil Production: 2024 Update Everything Shines By Dimming
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2024-07-03/the-status-of-u-s-oil-production-2024-update-everything-shines-by-dimming/
Numerous petroleum geologists and oil analysts have recognized that there are future problems with the Permian Basin and U.S. tight oil production in general. Here is a recent statement from an oil industry insider concerning future U.S. tight oil production:
“Shale will likely tip over in five years, and US production will be down 20 to 30% quickly. When it does—this feels like watching the steam roller scene in Austin Powers. Oil prices in the late 2020s will be something to behold.”
An industry executive responding to a poll by the Dallas Fed;
I hope this will wake a few somewhere .
https://thedeepdive.ca/the-great-oil-shortage-are-we-ready-for-the-next-crisis/
Once one awakes, what concrete action do you see?
Dennis L.
go get a cubic mile of platinum of course.
Ah, very good.
Dennis L.
Even if someone wakes up, the great techno-industrial machine cannot be stopped. Unfortunately the party will continue as long as it can.
Business as usual, while it lasts.
Those who govern us make us believe that this system is the only possible one, deliberately avoiding saying that if we continue on this path, within 20 years at most, we will be forced to live in a completely poisoned environment, in the air and in the soil, literally.
There are many examples: PFAS in drinking water, strange industrial sludges approved as fertilizer in agriculture, microplastics everywhere that enter the food chain, the latter already “poisoned” due to animals stuffed with antibiotics, the same goes for fruits and vegetables.
So those who govern us will continue to look for a some sort of solution, convinced that there is a good one somewhere, or to say that the system cannot be changed.
So, business as usual gentlemen, business as usual…
Agree with observations, my “belief” is God for want of a better word has taken a great deal of effort to get human beings this far, we are remarkable. The universe is a heck of an undertaking, spaceship earth is very clever engineering.
There is a thumb which at times goes on the scale.
Starship may well find that cubic mile of Pt, that is a game changer. It uses engineering we already understand fairly well.
We live in the present and prepare for the future, the past is history.
Dennis L.
My belief is god or whatever it is watches the earth as one of the reality shows. And when the show is no longer interesting it is time to turn the screen off.
Starship has not brought anything back and is unlikely to do so for quite a long time.
There is no effort, like nobody puts any effort to put termites into their house.
c’mon Dennis
explain what we do with cu mile of Pt
cant wait
Norman, imagine a platinum resistance thermometer in every home!
And platinum bling dangling from every chav’s and thug’s ears, nose and throat!
And that’s just for starters!
This is written by someone who doesn’t really understand the situation:
The problem is not (only) with the SPR; it is with total future production.
Sadler does make a good observation at the beginning:
“Well the fuel problem is bigger than thought…
Japan is having to make cuts to flights and scale back expansion in routes due to jet fuel limitations…”
But then, his suggestions for fixing the problem at the end fall woefully short:
1. Unshackle American Refiners: Global refining capacity is being artificially suppressed by net-zero and ESG policies.
(Everyone else can see that there won’t be oil to refine, so no point in building more!)
2. Tap into Domestic Petroleum Reserves: The President should approve the expansion of domestic oil drilling on federal lands and direct purchases over time of domestic crude oil to restock the SPR. (I am doubtful the oil on federal lands is significant. It might help a little.)
3. Enhance Pipeline Infrastructure: (We need more US oil to make more pipelines make sense.)
4. Strengthen Foreign Assurances for Fuel Supplies: (This won’t work any more. No one is going to sell us oil, if we have little in the way of finished goods to provide in return.)
5. Reform the Jones Act: Sadler calls for easing the Jones Act restrictions by allowing ships registered, flagged, and crewed by defense treaty allies to provide services between U.S. ports. (I am not convinced that this gets us anywhere. For one thing, defense treaty allies are in as bad shape as we are. Oil is in limited supply.)
6. Prioritize Energy Resilience Diplomacy: The President should refocus diplomatic and economic engagement away from a myopic ESG and climate agenda to one that supports energy resilience. (Yes, but it is hard to see that the US actually has the capability to fix its current problems. It might be worth a try. Use US oil, coal and natural gas for US purposes, not in a scheme to get more money from overseas sales (especially natural gas and coal)).
Okay, it is all retrospective, this site has convinced me there is no oil solution; further thought has more or less convinced me even if there were an oil solution spaceship earth can’t take any more campfires in the ship.
Back to Pt which is generally laughed at, but what else?
Mankind appears to be getting a workable space freighter, minerals are at the poles of the moon. Minerals are in the asteroids. Soon Musk will have all the satellites he needs/wants and then what? Probes, drones, explore for minerals/metals in space.
A cubic mile of Pt. It uses current engineering and the output is non polluting as well as the cells being recyclable.
Someone else can solve the toxic waste problem with solar panels, but perhaps the trade off with fossil fuel pollution is a net gain for spaceship earth.
Why a cubic mile? It should be enough for a few years, guess only and it is a catchy phrase.
Dennis L.
Good article. This is the first real sign of problems with fuel whether due to upstream or downstream limits, regardless whether due to political, financial, or geological/thermodynamics of EROEI.
Then there is the BTC downdraft today that got me thinking. BTC ostensibly got its “roots” as an alternative to the fraudulent counterfeiting of currency by central banks, but the “water” that feeds these roots is the BTC “Hodlers’ ” normalcy bias enabled by industrialized civilization (IC). It is a paradox. IOW, BTC exists because of their inherent belief in the IC system that is needed to allow BTC to exist in the first place.
The fact that BTC seems to be used store as a store of value as witnessed by creation of ETFs and disproportionate use as investment rather than as a transactional vehicle for online anonymous purchases is consistent with this mindset.
This is a very fine report. The one thing that I would have a problem with is not something Blanchard says, but the quote he gives:
“Oil prices in the late 2020s will be something to behold.”
There is a lot of belief that the system will stay together and oil prices will rise, but that isn’t necessarily how the system works. Instead, when there isn’t enough oil to go around, we get a whole lot of other effects, including wars, bankruptcies, overturned governments, epidemics, and depressed individuals who realize that their educations aren’t taking them where they promised. It just leaves them with more debt.
For most there is CC with little or no debt.
Knowledge is in constant turmoil. An EE from the sixties would be lost today although one he/she could learn quickly. The problem is the stack of books and the time required to learn them. Fall CC for me is at seven inches. That is a pile.
There is welding, that is hand eye coordination, plumbing, carpentry and of course, hairdressing. Makes technical school bearable for the guys, competition is stiff however. Can almost hear a welder, “My stick is faster than yours.”
Dennis L.
He’s optimistic on batteries:
https://aukehoekstra.substack.com/p/batteries-how-cheap-can-they-get
dirt cheap batteries will completely transform our electricity grid, paving the way for solar and wind and replacing grid reinforcements with grid buffers.
prediction: stationary batteries in your house and everywhere will turn the stormy electricity grid into a calm swimming pool
But I’m skeptical of his methodology:
The learning curve that the technology exhibits
The materials you need (as a reality check)
Let’s put batteries everywhere. What could go wrong?
https://www.energy-storage.news/tesla-megapack-on-fire-in-minor-incident-at-battery-storage-site-in-australia/
https://www.kpbs.org/news/public-safety/2024/05/28/otay-mesa-battery-storage-fire-stokes-residents-fear-of-similar-facility-in-north-county
I don’t trust lithium batteries at all.
I also avoid parking near full-hybrid or plug-in hybrid cars, you never know. Lately, there have been more and more news of cases of charging cars catching fire, putting entire buildings at risk.
Had a tool battery, on a charger explode recently, blew out the bottom of the battery and then blew off the bottom of the plastic case. This is a name brand, top of line unit.
It happens.
Dennis L.
Our problem is a summer/winter problem. We need heat in winter; it tends to come in summer.
Our problem is also a loss of energy in saving and pulling back out the energy that goes into the battery.
Furthermore, only about 20% of our energy supply is electricity. Fixing our electricity supply doesn’t get us very far by itself.
Not seriously thinking about this one, but:
In summer pump heat into earth, the insulation on the top is not a problem, the bottom warms with depth.
In winter pump heat out of ground with ground heat from center of earth as well as pumped heat.
Heard a doctor story. Physician moves into a town, purchases a home he can’t afford along with a wife he cannot afford. The town has a physician for 30-40 years.
Dennis L.
The simplest solution is to straighten the tilt of the Earth rotation. When we excavate 30% of it to get at that cubic mile, we could redistribute all that mass and alter the moment of inertia. After that we can build fusion reactors.
LOL!
Have been aware of and read LTG since the beginning. It is playing out except it only went to end of NRR on earth.
Starship is allowing us to leave the bounds of earth, fifth launch in July? Huge sums of money are going into it, someone has concerns and is literally going for broke.
Climate in my ignorant opinion is changing, we have released carbon which was sequestered over millions of years in few hundred. Perhaps releasing more is not a very good idea.
Rained here again this AM, not good; crops are drowning. Sun is intermittent, no energy for crops to grow.
AI is coming on stage, you all know I use Copilot; it is very good, even codes.
Elon has done alright to date, he is betting electric; the world is betting electric. Of course not everything works, even Rome was not built in day.
God did not guarantee us life, He made a universe which works well 20% of the time, the 80% gets a shrug of the shoulders and better luck next time. A good religion captures part of the 20, the less of the 80 the better.
At the MREA baby boomer hippy fest literally stumbled across a mostly intact wind turbine on the ground. Wandered around, found someone in charge, asked how much, number was quoted and it is now on my farm, tower, blades, turbine and a large bucket of bolts. Construction grade galvanized bolts for this rig are about $10/bolt.
I know, wind can’t work, it is a waste. Agree, at the original purchase price of >$100K it doesn’t work, at 1% of that it has a chance.
At MREA was a fellow with a fuel cell in a trailer, running off H of course. It is a start, appeared well manufactured, nice computer controls.
Now, with a cubic mile of Pt, I am set, can make and use H. Go Starship!
Dennis L.
Going for broke? Not even close.
If they are really going for broke, everything would be concentrated on starships. There would be movies, shows and commercials going for starships, and the politicians would be talking about that every single day.
Good luck with your used wind turbine project. I wonder if any essential parts are missing.
Political Unrest Worldwide Is Fueled by High Prices and Huge Debts
https://archive.ph/5qELp
This is not a huge surprise. Inflation is happening everywhere. Too much debt has been used in the past. Higher interest rates are being added to debt. It is hard to see a good way out. One thing this article says is
“Indermit Gill, chief economist at the World Bank, said that nations unable to borrow because of a debt crisis have essentially two ways to pay their bills: printing money or raising taxes. “One leads to inflation,” he said, “the other leads to unrest.””
I would agree with this. It is all related to the lack of cheap energy products of the right kinds.
Accept the cheap energy part, think we have run out of sinks into which to dump the waste heat.
Parts of the US are experiencing drought and heat per a post on this site, MN has enough rain to share.
Leaning towards limiting exogenous energy growth on earth.
We seem to have Starship, now, of course, need a cubic mile of Pt.
Dennis L.
Congratulations to the Labour party on winning the elections . They will preside over the bankruptcy of the UK .
https://archive.md/ss811
‘Wealth creation is our number one priority’ – Keir Starmer
Sir Keir Starmer has unveiled Labour’s election manifesto, promising to “rebuild Britain” by boosting economic growth.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clll8d2vd8yo
Ahh always the same old story: “Growth! Growth! Growth!”
Yeah, sure, infinite growth on a finite planet.
Meanwhile, in the real world…
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/01/north-sea-oil-transition-plan
1 Jul 2024
“In this city, everyone feels the decline of the North Sea,” says Chris Douglas, 39, who has lived in Aberdeen his whole life and began working as a taxi driver in the Granite City 20 years ago. He now has his own cab company, which in the past was entirely reliant on bookings from the oil and gas industry – today it’s “maybe 50%”, he says.
“You only have to look around: there are industrial estates decimated, hotels no longer trading. The good days are long gone,” he says.
The oil and gas fields in the North Sea are in terminal decline. Last year, the oil basin produced 34m tonnes of oil, its lowest since production in the North Sea was established in the 1970s. As its accessible fossil fuels dwindle, big oil companies have pulled out of the ageing oil basin.
Keir Starmer. is this the guy who protected a pedo?
Yes .
Bu not just any pedo. A good friend of the present King of the United Kingdom of Mediocre Britain and Northern Ireland.
Charles is said to have sent Mr Savile a box of cigars and a pair of gold cufflinks on his 80th birthday, along with a note which read: “Nobody will ever know what you have done for this country Jimmy. This is to go some way in thanking you for that.”
Could Savile have been some kind of James Bond figure and could it be that we’re not being told about his heroic deeds behind the iron and bamboo curtains?
”said to have sent”?
I thought you were a stickler for reliable accurate research Tim
Have you checked with Tommy Robinson the veracity of this?
Let’s not forget the years of pedo rubbish spread on OFW from certain quarters, all ”certain”. Questioning of that certainty invited condemnation from the illiterati.
hopefully that episode is now over, with the departure of your mentor and fantasist-in- chief
I hope you are not trying to kick it off again.
Starmer did indeed drop the Saville case for dubious reasons. Not enough evidence was the claim, but the later inquiry found there was ample evidence, to which Starmer apologised(all was forgotten) and was promptly rewarded with titles and a major political position(the right kind of failure).
He failed on Saville, Ian Tomlinson, Jaun Charles Menezes(when all evidence proved the police had consistently lied) and Assange to name just a few, but always without fail refused to ever bring charges against anyone in authority, no matter the crime or evidence. He’s as wrong as a wrong ‘un can get and yes, a self pronounced Zionist.
How he worked tirelessly to keep an innocent man locked up is revealing.
https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=k69sEAAAQBAJ&pg=PA1987&lpg=PA1987&dq=starmer+don%27t+you+dare&source=bl&ots=xx_kz0TYwq&sig=ACfU3U3y-uq9QUCOrMnjq3S4GYF7iOFSOQ&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjNg-DJn5KHAxWzVkEAHRwhBYo4ChDoAXoECAIQAg#v=onepage&q=starmer%20don't%20you%20dare&f=false
Dead .
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-UK-North-Sea-Oil-Industry-Is-in-Decline.html
Includes “sour grapes” statements like:
“With oil demand expected to begin falling in 2030, as the U.K.’s green energy capacity grows, several oil majors are withdrawing from North Sea operations.”
” the International Energy Agency (IEA) is pushing countries to curb their oil production in favor of greener alternatives in support of the decarbonization goals outlined in the Paris Agreement. “
This story probably relates to all Advanced Economies:
Article headline is
Britain is teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. No one dares admit it
Our elites have engaged in a great deception, squabbling over trivialities as we edge toward financial apocalypse
“Taxes are already at a 70-year high, and yet we are nowhere close to balancing the books.”
“We should be paying back debt at this point in the cycle, not racking up even more.”
“We are still racking up huge off-balance sheet debts. Such as? There is already £200 billion of outstanding student debt, and that is forecast to rise to over £400 billion by the 2040s. Few believe that graduates will earn enough to pay back their loans in full, especially as our zero-growth economy is hardly creating any new professional jobs to absorb them all. ”
“We are on the hook for some £2.6 trillion in “unfunded” public sector pension entitlements.”
Have not been there in years, Hong Kong seemed to work very well at that time. Intellectual capital?
Dennis L.
Let’s see what I can figure out.
Wikipedia says:
The region of Hong Kong has been inhabited since the Old Stone Age, later becoming part of the Chinese Empire with its loose incorporation into the Qin dynasty (221–206 BC). Starting out as a farming fishing village and salt production site, it became an important free port and eventually a major international financial center.[1]
A different Wikipedia article says:
“The handover of Hong Kong from the United Kingdom to the People’s Republic of China was at midnight on 1 July 1997. This event ended 156 years of British rule in the former colony, which began in 1841.”
China never recognized the rule of UK:
“Transfer of sovereignty over Hong Kong” (Chinese: 香港主權移交) is another description frequently used by Hong Kong officials[14][15] and the media, as well as non-locals[16] and academics,[11] which is not recognized by the Chinese Government.[17] Beijing claims neither the Qing dynasty exercised sovereignty over Hong Kong after ceding it, nor the British therefore did, and hence the transfer of sovereignty to China from Britain is not logically possible.”
When I look at the energy consumption per capita of Hong Kong in EI’s 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy, I see a strange pattern. Hong Kong’s energy consumption per capita in 1997 was 3.2 times the energy consumption per capita of China. In 2022, Hong Kong’s energy consumption per capita was actually less than that of the rest of China. In 2023, Hong Kong’s energy consumption per capita was barely above that of China (120.6 vs 119.8).
Part of the problem is no doubt the issue of Hong Kong being a financial center. If the investment Ponzi Scheme through Hong Kong into China is no longer working, Hong Kong would tend to get squeezed. There were the loans to builders that were paying out as planned, for example.
Another issue is that the Hang Seng Stock Market is down by about 45% since its peak in early 2018.
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/HSI:INDEXHANGSENG?window=MAX
The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar but the yuan has been falling relative to the US$
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=CNY&to=USD&view=10Y
We remember also that the COVID shut-ins by China were particularly extreme in Hong Kong. No doubt, there were problems there that needed to be covered up. NPR reported on February 18, 2022
https://www.npr.org/2022/02/18/1081682490/hong-kong-covid
‘No-COVID’ policy drags on Hong Kong’s economy as cases surge
My view of the situation:
Hong Kong being a financial center works, until it doesn’t. It is now encountering China’s financial problems.
My opinion is that HK has been being squeezed for a while. China’s slowing but fundamently OK while HK is dispensible. It’s served as a conduit for western capital investment and technology sharing but that now is being cast off. FE detailed here how this century HK has shrunk greatly in significance to the overall Chinese economy (which he mistook for China has already collapsed). The unkind unwinding of HK based property development companies foreigners used for China investment has caused the China bashing which abounds in western media like SCMP, Wikipedia, Bloomberg, mainstream blog analysts etc. All these NGO colour stirring doesn’t help HK either …
Thinking out loud, I suspect the eugenics programme with gather pace under the new Labour government in the UK. We have already seen this in Canada where the elderly and poor have been targeted for assisting dying – I think the programme is called “MAID”.
Once upon a time, tribes expelled excess men to better manage resources (and tensions). Now the methods have become a little more sophisticated – societies target children with poor mental health and offer them sterilisation as the cure.
I made a similar point below but I don’t think it has made it through.
I am afraid you are correct about eugenics programs. With too many people on earth, people have to come up with solutions somehow.
Jet fuel shortage in Japan
https://www.airwaysmag.com/new-post/jet-fuel-shortage-japanese-aviation
“As the jet fuel shortage hits Japanese aviation by surprise, is it a tell-tale sign for the rest of the world that jet fuel production is at a decline—down more than 30% since 2019—due in part to the industry’s push for net-zero emissions?”
Oh yes, for sure it must be the push for net-zero emissions, of course…
Yes, that 30% has been slightly modified and mixed in with diesel. So masking the continuing decline of diesel production.
This is part of the diesel-jet fuel problem I keep writing about. Japan’ s flights are mostly within Japan, so rail transport could be substituted, or very long. I expect that citizens and businesses cannot afford very high-prices air tickets to the US or Europe or even Australia. There is an affordability issue.
They will never give up .
https://mishtalk.com/economics/worlds-largest-fusion-reactor-is-finally-completed-the-test-run-is-15-years-away/
It was a smashing success: the money was spent. Happy 4th of July.
Woah. I just learned that nuclear fusion is 45 years away. And I was hoping that all those free neutrons could help us manufacture a cubic mile of platinum.
“Fusion power is just 20 years away and it always will be”
An interesting article regarding the problems of the tokamak design.
https://issues.org/fusion-research-time-to-set-a-new-path/
“The situation looks even worse when one considers the likely operation and maintenance (O&M) costs for a tokamak. The device is inherently large and complex, so that any disassembly and reassembly will be difficult and expensive. On top of that, virtually all reactor components will quickly become radioactive due to neutron activation and widespread tritium contamination, which will exist in abundance, since tritium tends to readily diffuse through most materials, particularly when they are hot. This means that most O&M will have to be conducted remotely, adding significantly to cost. The bottom line is that tokamak economics are inescapably very negative.”
“No matter what materials of construction are chosen, there will be large amounts of induced radioactivity and neutron-induced damage, particularly close to the plasma. Over time, radiation damage will render some system components structurally brittle, requiring replacement. Major component replacement in a tokamak fusion reactor will be very time-consuming, because of its complex geometry and the attendant long reactor downtimes, which will increase power costs.”
Finally, it should be noted that there will be human-safety-concern levels of tritium throughout the core structure and the surrounding regions of a tokamak reactor, because tritium readily diffuses through most materials, particularly at the high temperatures that a tokamak reactor will operate.
Tokamak plasmas are not benign. As the European Fusion Network acknowledged, “Tokamaks operate within a limited parameter range. Outside this range sudden losses of energy confinement can occur. These events, known as disruptions, cause major thermal and mechanical stresses to the structure and walls.” Disruptions have been identified as a major problem to the design and operation of future tokamak reactors.
I am reminded of the history of fission nuclear power. A number of interesting and exotic concepts were developed and pursued, many extensively. It took the pragmatic Admiral Hyman Rickover to recognize the many inherent challenges associated with emerging nuclear technology. He chose reactor configurations that were in many ways the least sophisticated. He succeeded for the Navy application, and his concepts won over almost all others for commercial electric power application. A fusion concept that initially simply boils water may not sound very exotic, but it may well facilitate the introduction of a new fusion technology. As the saying goes: “The best can be the enemy of the good.”
In southern France it is 15+30 years away. In China it might be 30 years away.
Con Fusion!
That may well be about it.
Dennis L.
According to the quoted article:
Something that sort of works for 100 trillionths of a second is not ready for prime time.
Back in 1972 the club of rome published the following article in the new york times unfortunately it was ignored and manking lost any ability for a happy ending to occur. CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Feb. 26—A major computer study of world trends has concluded, as many have feared, that mankind probably faces an uncontrollable and disastrous collapse of its society within 100 years unless it moves speedily to establish a “global equilibrium” in which growth of population and industrial output are halted.
Such is the urgency of the situation, the study’s sponsors say, that the slowing of growth constitutes the “primary task facing humanity” and will demand international cooperation “on a scale and scope without precedent.” They concede such a task will require “a Copernican revolution of the mind.”
The study, which is being sharply challenged by other experts, was an attempt to peer into the future by building a mathematical model of the world system, examining the highly complex interrelations among population, food supply, natural resources, pollution and industrial production.
The conclusions are rekindling an intellectual debate over a question that is at least as old as the early economists, Thomas Malthus and John Stuart Mill:
Will human population ultimately grow so large that the earth’s’finite resources will be totally consumed and, if so, how near is the day of doom?
The study was conducted at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology under the auspices of the Club of Rome. In the findings, to be published next month by the Potomac Associates under the title “The Limits to Growth,” the M.I.T. group argues that the limits arc very near—unless the “will” is generated to begin a “controlled, orderly transition from growth to global equilibrium.”
The study would seem to bolster some of the intuitive warnings of environmentalists. In Britain last month, for example, a group of 33 leading scientists issued “blueprint for survival,” calling on the nation to halve its population and heavily tax the use of raw materials and power.
But others, particularly economists, are skeptical. “It’s just utter nonsense,” Continued From Page 1, Col. 7 remarked one leading economist, who asked that he not be identified. He added that he felt there was little evidence that the M.I.T. computer model represented reality or that it was based on scientific data that could be tested.
Another economist, Simon S. Kuznets of Harvard, a Nobel Prize‐winning authority on the economic growth of nations, said he had not examined the M.I.T. work first hand, but he expressed doubt about the wisdom of stopping growth.
“It’s a simplistic kind of conclusion—you have problems, and you solve them by stopping all sources of change,” he said.
Others, like Henry C. Wallich of Yale, say a no‐growth economy is hard to imagine, much less achieve, and might serve to lock poor cultures into their poverty.
Malthus Again and Again
“I get some solace from the fact that these scares have happened many times before — this is Malthus again,” he said.
Malthus, the 19th‐century British‐economist, theorized somewhat prematurely that population growing at exponential rates that could be graphically represented as a rising curve would soon outstrip available food supply. He did not foresee the Industrial Revolution.
Don’t Have Alternative
Prof. Dennis L. Meadows, a management specialist who directed the M.I.T. study—which is the first phase of the Club of Rome’s “Project on the Predicament of Mankind” — conceded that the model was “imperfect,” but said that it was based on much “real world” data and was better than any previous similar attempt.
The report contends that the world “cannot wait for perfect models and total understandMg.” To this Dr. Meadows added in an interview: “Our view is that we don’t have any alternative — it’s not as though we can choose to keep growing or not. We are certainly going to stop growing. The question is, do we do it in a way that is most consistent with our goals or do we just let nature take its course.”
Letting nature take its course, the M.I.T. group says, will probably mean a precipitous drop in population before the year 2100, presumably through dissease and starvation. The computer indicates that the following would happen:
¶With growing population, industrial capacity rises, along with its demand for oil, metals and other resources.
¶As wells and mines are exhausted, prices go up, leaving less money for reinvestment in future growth.
¶Finally, when investment falls below depreciation of manufacturing facilities, the in dustrial base collapses, along with services and agriculture.
¶Later population plunges from lack of food and medical services.
All this grows out of an adaptation of a sophisticated method of coming to grips with complexity called “systems analysis.” In it, a complex system is broken into components and the relationships between them reduced to mathematical equations to give an approximation, or model, of reality.
Then a computer is used to manipulate the elements to simulate how the system will change with time. It can show how a given policy change might affect all other factors.
If human behaviour is considered a system, then birth and death rates, food output, industrial production, pollution and use of natural resources are all part of a great inter locking web in which a change in any one fac.tOr will have some impact on, the others.
Interrelations Studied
For example industrial output influences flood production, which in turn affects human mortality. This ultimately controls population level, which returns to affect industrial output, completing what is known as an automatic feedback loop.”
Drawing on the work of Prof. Jay W. Forrester of M.I.T., who has pioneered in computer simulation, the M.I.T. team built dozens of loops that they believe describe the interractions in the world system.
They then attempted to assign equations to each of the 100 or so “causal links” between the variables in the loops, taking into account such things as psychological factors in fertility and the biological effects of pollutants.
Critics say this is perhaps the weakest part of the study because the equations are based in large part on opinion rather than proved fact, unavailable in most cases. Dr. Meadows counters that the numbers are good because the model fits the actual trends from 1900 to 1970.
The model was used to test the impact of various alternative future policies designed to ward off the world collapse envisioned if no action is taken.
For example, it is often argued that continuing technological advances, such as nuclear power, will keep pushing back the limits of economic and population growth.
To test this argument, the M.I.T. team assumed that resources were doubled and that recycling reduced demand for them to one‐fourth. The computer run found little benefit in this since pollution became overwhelming and caused collapse.
Assumptions Tested
Adding pollution control to the assumptions was no better; food production dropped. Even assuming “unlimited” resources, pollution control, better agricultural productivity and effective birth control, the world system eventually grinds to a halt with rise in pollution, falling food output and falling population.
“Our attempts to use even the most optimistic estimates of the benefits of technology,” the report said, “did not in any case postpone the collapse beyond the year 2100.”
Skeptics argue that there is no way to imagine what kind of spectacular new technologies are over the horizon.
“If we were building and making cars the way we did 30 years ago we would have run out of steel before now imagine, but you get substitution of materials,” said Robert M. Solow, an M.I.T. economist not connected with the Club of Rome project. “It is true we’ll run out of oil eventually, but it’s premature to say therefore we will run out of energy,” he added.
At any rate, the M.I.T. group went on to test the impact of other approaches, such as stabilizing population and industrial capacity.
Zero population growth alone did very little, since industrial output continued to grow, it was found. If both population and industrial growth are stabilized by 1985, then world stability is achieved for a time, but sooner or later resource shortages develop, the study said.
System Suggested
Ultimately, by testing different variations, the team came up with a system that they believe capable of satisfying the basic material requirements of mankind yet sustainable without sudden collapse. They said such a world would require the following:
¶Stabilization of population and industrial capacity.
¶Sharp reduction in pollution and in resource consumption per unit of industrial output.
¶Introduction of efficient technological methods — recycling of resources, pollution control, restoration of eroded land and prolonged use of capital.
¶Shift in emphasis away from factory‐produced goods toward food and nonmaterial services, such as education and health.
The report is vague about how all this is to be achieved in a world in which leaders often disagree even over the shape of a conference table.
Even so, critics are not sanguine about what kind of world it would be. Dr. Meadows agrees it would not be Utopia, but nevertheless does not foresee stagnation.
“A society released from struggling with the many problems caused by growth may nave more energy and ingenuity available for solving other problems,” he says, citing such pursuits as education, arts, music and religion.
Many economists doubt that a no‐growth world is possible. Given human motivations pand diversity, they say, there will always be instability.
“The only way to make it stable is to assume that people wilt become very routineminded, with no independent thought and very little freedom, each generation doing exactly what the last did,” says Dr. Wallich. “I can’t say I’m enamored with that vision.”
“Can you expect billions of Asians and Africans to live forever at roughly their standard of living while we go on forever at ours?” asked Dr. Solow.
Dr. Wallich terms no‐growth “an upper income baby,” adding “they’ve got enough money, and now they want a world fit for them to travel in and look at the poor.”
The M.I.T. team agrees there is no assurance that “humanity’s moral resources would he sufficient to solve the problem of income distribution.” But, they contend “there is even less assurance that such social problems will be solved in present state of growth, which is straining both the moral and physical resources of the world’s people.
The report ends hopefully, stating that man has what is physically needed to create lasting society.
“The two missing ingredients are a realistic long‐term goal that can guide mankind to the equalibrium society and the human will to achieve that goal,” it observes.
Collaborating with Dr. Meadows in writing “The Limits to Growth,” were his wife, Donella, a biophysicist; Jorgen Randers, a physicist, and William W. Behrens 3d, an engineer. They were part of a 17‐member international team working with more than $200,000 in grants from the Volkswagen Foundation in Germany.
The major conclusions of the study have been circulating among experts for a few months. The full details are to appear in next month’s publication and in future technical documents. This Thursday, a symposium on the study will be held at the Smithsonian Institution in Washington.
Unfortunately the unhappy ending is now clear to me it will involve a pandemic leading to a lockdown on the advanced economies by doing this an acceleration in the solution proposed by Meadows and his team in 1972 to achieve the ‘ sustainable cure’ to our problems will occur.As the old saying goes ‘ all good things come to an end’. In our case it will be the ‘Advanced Economies’ that will fall on their sword. Look out for disease ‘x’ , that will be the final curtain call for us.
Long covid pandemic is coming..
This is going to be another “Cambrian explosion”!!!
An interesting 2 minute read on collapse . Connected to food supply .
https://medium.com/@janslort/our-culture-will-collapse-by-2030-106-8d4475185950
Keep your ears pricked for the sounds of wings flapping!
It looks like it is subscribers only.
Here drb .
The objective of business is to earn. profits.
Prices have been increasing at the wholesale level beyond the rate of inflation. Yesterday, French supermarket chain Carrefour called it excessive and refused to kneel under. They removed Doritos, Quaker cereals, 7-Up, and a dozen other Pepsi Co. products from shelves in over 3,400 of its outlets across France. The company plans to extend the de facto boycott to over 5,000 additional outlets in Italy, Belgium, and Spain.
There is a major problem in the retail world, namely the wholesalers and middle men. Retailers with hundreds, often thousands of products, resort to using wholesalers rather than dealing directly with producers. Large multi product chains, like Carrefour, and Alpha Beta, who also own American Stores and Kroger’s, although not a standalone brand — Kroger’s is part of the same company that owns:
*City Market
* Dillons
* Food 4 Less
* Foods Co
* Fred Meyer
* Fry’s
* Gerbes
* Jay C Food Store
* King Soopers
* Baker’s
* Mariano’s
* Metro Market
* Pay-Less Super Markets
* Pick’n Save
* QFC
* Ralphs
* Ruler
* Mariano’s
* Smith Foods & more
All of these stores combined carry over 25,000 local products across 32 states, in thousands of stores, they can block all the brands of behemoth holding companies like Pepsi Co. The effect will be to prevent other major competitors from buying at the higher prices if they can’t raise their prices to customers.
The number of middlemen increases when farm produce is involved. Grower > wholesaler > distributor > retailer. The cost increases with each step even though no value is added to the product, they all take their slice of profit.
The sale of over-the-counter- drugs, is nearly impossible for a manufacturer to get shelf space without using a distributor who handles hundreds of products for sales to retailers. They control the market price.
AI to the rescue. It can take on the behemoth task of daily inventory maintenance and order creation for each item, in each store, every day, to thousands of producers at the latest, best prices, thus eliminating thousands of middle men and their profits.
Thanks. I do not see how this relates to cultural collapse.
That’s what I suspect will happen too – my money is on an environmental lockdown. There might also be planned reductions in the food supply.
Demographics in developed nations are in decline, so I suspect global population turns negative by 2050 anyway – but that probably isn’t soon enough for these maniacs.
One thing to watch out for is more eugenics – especially since we in the UK now have a Labour government. Typically, tribes would send excess men out into the wild to relieve pressure on resources. However, it seems we have now developed a more sophisticated method where we target children with poor mental health and sterilise them.
Or euthanise pensioners aged 76 who only went into hospital for a ‘knee replacement’.
Hmmm, my co worker just had a knee replacement and is early 60s and needs the other one done. So, suppose he is lucky to get them done now before he retires
You quote the following:
The second item on this list is not what the model actually says because the model has no money or prices in it.
What the model says (and I have discussed this with Dennis Meadows myself) is that a greater and greater share of available energy resources and other resources needs to be used in extraction and processing of the materials of all kinds (including energy resources). This leave less physical resources for operating mines and factories, and building new ones. Also, for transportation of goods to consumers.
This connection is the reason for the interest in EROEI, but EROEI doesn’t exactly follow this for many reasons.
EIA has posted a figure for world crude oil production for last March (82.585 mb/d) — this is higher than their figure for March 2023 (82.4430) — the average of their figures for January – March, 2024 (82.103) is .0026 lower than that average for January-March, 2023 (82.313).
Is post-covid peak oil past?
The link:
https://www.eia.
gov/international/data/world/petroleum-and-other-liquids/monthly-petroleum-and-other-liquids-production?pd=5&p=0000000000000000000000000000000000vg&u=0&f=M&v=mapbubble&a=-&i=none&vo=value&&t=C&g=00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001&l=249-ruvvvvvfvtvnvv1vrvvvvfvvvvvvfvvvou20evvvvvvvvvvnvvvs0008&s=94694400000&e=1709251200000
A graph of world crude oil production history: https://davecoop.net/seneca
You can get quarterly averages from the EIA data:
https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world/petroleum-and-other-liquids/quarterly-petroleum-and-other-liquids-production?pd=5&p=0000000000000000000000000000000000vg&u=0&f=Q&v=mapbubble&a=-&i=none&vo=value&&t=C&g=00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001&l=249-ruvvvvvfvtvnvv1vrvvvvfvvvvvvfvvvou20evvvvvvvvvvnvvvs0008&s=94694400000&e=1704067200000
Q1 2022 80,413
Q2 2022 79,501
Q3 2022 81,277
Q4 2022 82,027
Q1 2023 82,306
Q2 2023 81,457
Q3 2023 81,033
Q4 2023 82,349
Q1 2024 82,102
I think it is too soon to tell. For one thing, these amounts are subject to revision. Also, they bounce up and down a lot. The single highest quarter post covid was Q4 2023 at 82,349. The latest quarter is almost as high at 82,102.
I think it is too soon to say.
Michael Hudson says the nastiness of the US is pushing the BRICS and other poor countries around the world to work together, to counter the US’s nationalism. Hudson covers many topics as well, everything from Ukraine to Taiwan to the how soon we can expect a BRICS currency.
This is a book review of Toft & Kushi’s 2023 Dying by the Sword: The Militarization of US Policy. Oxford University Press.
https://energyskeptic.com/2024/america-is-not-the-good-guy-anymore/
They make the case that America is not the good guy anymore, and hasn’t been for a long time, having undertaken nearly 400 military interventions since 1776, half since WWII. The book is full of lists of battles and more that really bring home the extent of U.S. interventions and wars. Now we are a nation to be feared, like Russia or China, especially with our turn towards authoritarian leaders and new $1.5 trillion dollar nuclear weapon upgrade program. Rather than use diplomacy, we wage wars, and this has bloated the military budget beyond all reason and diverted resources away from health care, education, infrastructure, job creation, social welfare and more.
…..Generally, the United States interacts with other states in the international system through the use of force, trade, and diplomacy, institutionalized via the departments of defense, commerce, and state, respectively.
….We contend the United States has become addicted to military intervention. Each individual crisis appears to demand a military response, but a short-term respite then results in an even bigger problem later, which again seems to beg of an armed response, and so on and on: violence begets violence. Unlike the past, where force was a last resort, the United States now pursues a whack-a-mole security policy—much more reactionary than deliberate, lacking clear national strategic goals.
From the Energy Sceptic .com…go ask Alice
This seems to be an European Union idea, but the UK is having the devices installed, as well.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/orwell-hits-highway-starting-month-cars-britain-will-have-speed-limiters
I’m glad that there are robust safeguards in place to make sure that these capabilities are never abused by those in power.
We are all sure of that!
You do know you can buy a refrigerator that is connected to the internet!
Then big brother can help you lose weight!
If that doesn’t work out then they can digitize your money so you can’t buy any food!
Hello, I am from the government and I am here to help you!😁
Raining hard here, again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UAp8S2lnI5E
At 20 minutes in, number of corn acres replanted, 411, I know something about corn planting costs, not trivial. At least he doesn’t have to pay land rent twice.
One year of weather does not make climate change; if it is or has changed, food is going to be a problem.
MN looks probable to lose a bridge secondary to loss of a dam, damn.
Giving you an idea of speed.
Spraying at close to 20mph, 25 or so minutes or so in to video. Guys are going for max productivity, the machinery costs are out of sight.
Still hard rain, windows for farm work seem very narrow, have to make hay will the sun shines.
Amish have some good ideas, much easier life on the farm, much less stress it would appear.
Land use patterns are going to change. The thirties come to mind.
Dennis L.
What huge, complex machines they are using! If something goes wrong, there isn’t going to be anyone close by with replacement parts that you can substitute yourself, I would guess.
And here we are in Gail’s neck of the woods
Extreme heat, scant rain causing headaches for Georgia farmers
by Drew Kann, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The heat and lack of rain is reflected in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor map released June 26. On June 18, only 33% of Georgia was considered “abnormally dry.” This week’s map shows more than 69% of its land area is now experiencing those conditions. Another 25% of the state is facing more extreme “moderate drought,” up from only 1.5% a week ago.
On the ground, Ray said the effects are more severe than the maps indicate.
Lucy Ray has one word to describe how most fields of corn and hay an hour east of Atlanta in Morgan County look right now: “crispy.”
Fearing they won’t have enough grass to sustain their animals, Ray said some farmers are considering drastically culling their herds. Others are buying feed from outside producers, or dipping into their hay reserves, which are typically used to nourish animals during the fall and winter months.
Still, experts say it could be months before the extent of losses comes into focus.
Ray said if farms in her area were to get a “nice, steady inch (of rain) tomorrow, everybody would breathe a sign of relief.”
“But right now … we’re looking at some pretty big consequences if things don’t turn around,” she added.
There is a chance of rain in the forecast for the next several days and the federal government’s seasonal outlook does not project drought worsening in Georgia through September.
But longer-term, there are other reasons for concern. Global climate conditions known as La Niña are expected to materialize in the coming months. The phenomenon, which is characterized by cooler waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean typically brings warmer and drier conditions to the Southern U.S., especially in winter.
I know that the few tomatoes and a few other things I planted by the mail box aren’t doing very well. It has been very warm and dry–especially dry.
Perennial crops seem to do very well if as a result of ‘climate change’ the UK gets maybe 20% more sun and rain in the future. Annual crops suffer badly if a farmer has wetter fields in the winter and spring planting is delayed by months.
I went on a tour of this UK regenerative farm recently:
https://www.regenben.com/
He seemed to have similar comments to some I’ve heard from Joel Salatin, i.e. it can be highly profitable but the farmer must be diversified. Since the 1990s he seems to have taken his farm from £1M in debt to debt-free.
Perhaps the Amish could do even better by not ploughing their land and only using the horses for seed drills, transport, etc? Deep ploughing is disastrous for the soil life.
Thinking Amish:
Sunday off, children play together, they eat together, they pray together.
If a member chooses not to be part of the group, that person is shunned; in modern terms cancelled. How quaint, a modern term connected to an old society.
Children are given a period of rebellion at 16, Rumspringa. They choose to remain or go on their own.
Modern conveniences as I recall are judged on whether or not they will bring the group together. Smart phones are probably not used. John Deere would not be part of this group. JD does not bring farmers together, it makes them work themselves and the land to death and then moves the factory labor to Mexico.
We have many people seeking to make a living off of “helping” others. They are called social workers and give out money for doing nothing.
We need a society, we die as individuals. It would appear as though the world is rejecting liberal democracy which emphasizes the individual. We are being shunned; that is not good. This last sentence is more or less from what I read in a post of Glenn Diesen.
I don’t think lack of oil will get us, it will be lack of intellectual capital and social cohesion.
Starship is doing well, now, where is that cubic mile of Pt?
Kul, I am twisting your leg if you are missing it.
Dennis L.
Starship is not going anywhere.
(Comedonchisciotte)
“Diabetes after Covid vaccination, some data and cases”
https://comedonchisciotte.org/diabete-dopo-il-vaccino-alcuni-dati-su-cui-riflettere/
From my personal experience, I know a friend (under 50) and a relative of mine (over 60) who developed diabetes after Covid vaccination.
type I or type II?
Type I sorry. so beta cells got burned for good.
I am sorry, this site got it right.
Dennis L.
US independence day. Probably one of the last since USA as we know it will probably not exist on 2030.
The so called founding fathers were mostly from England, Scotland, Wales and some like John Jay were Huguenots. Nobody outside of the Hajnal line. There were some Anglo-Irish in the lot but none of them were Celts.
They did not imagine a country dominated by the Celt-Irish, the Poles and the southern Italians, and a host of other peoples outside of the Hajnal line, not even counting peoples who are incompatible with the American culture.
So, for all practical purposes, the country the Founding Fathers founded died in 1960, restored in 1963, and the first restoration ended in 2016. Even if a second restoration would be attempted, it would not fare better than the attempt to put the Count of Chambord (sometimes called Henri V although he was never crowned), a grandson of the last real King of France. Chambord was childless, which meant a restoration would end with him in any case, and he refused the throne to deny it to the rival Orleanist branch , who was going to inherit it after his death.
What are your thoughts on Ralph Baric? Are the virus developers part of civilization?
An example of what Ph.D.’s do.
laughing quietly.
Dennis L.
Ivani
‘Gold has no price, it is the price’
‘Humans can’t have a virus, it is the virus’
Funny how things come together.
I have to say yes. It is what it is.
Warren Buffet predicts new pandemic worse than Covid
Source: CNBC
https://x.com/newstart_2024/status/1808827868438208530
As antibiotics lose effectiveness, I suppose there will be pandemics from diseases that we would expect to cure with antibiotics.
Poorer nutrition also makes pandemics more likely.
Agree: “Poorer nutrition also makes pandemics more likely.”:
As mentioned earlier, purchased a simple ham/cheese sandwich at a gas station, quick mart. Terrible, mush, filled a stomach no more no less.
This stuff is miserable for one’s health.
Dennis L.
Ain’t that nice, at 93 years old concerned about us all…I’m touched
+1
Future of education:
Some here have posted on Chinese and education. They are going home, not staying after their technical education, they are less and less coming here and paying full freight to the college administrations.
I am in the CC system, there are two tracks, a diploma and certificate. The diploma has the “light” courses included. Many of the technical courses now have certification as an option at the end. Many of these courses(programming, CAD, etc.) are online. Buildings are in many respects so yesterday except for hands on which seems to be valuable in training people in all areas.
For the real colleges I see a problem. They have their CHEA which allows them to be accredited and then charge the high prices, their monopoly moat.
We look for crashes, my guess is higher education; it is not that high and the government “service” route is becoming a problem with the governmental debts. Or, maybe it becomes real service at reduced incomes. One needs to be a “maker.” Policy without makers is busywork. For colleges it is the marginal income problem. That is the same as personally being a dollar short at the end of the month.
Note: I am a Mad grad, frat boy, met a brother at MREA, retired nuclear engineer. That was a good feeling, can’t be duplicated online.
Dennis L.
CHEA is council for higher education. It gives accreditation if a school meets quite a few standards. I am sure these change over time.
These universities and colleges are under pressure to admit more students and graduate a high percentage of them. There is a tendency to let standards slip. Faculty know that students will give them better evaluations if they give high grades. Administration wants most people to pass. Also, it is easier for less qualified applicants to graduate. Whether or not they can do the work at the end is another question.
We clearly already have way too many graduates in non-STEM courses. I agree with Dennis–somehow these university programs have to shrink back. At a minimum, they need to be more online.
What I am seeing is commercial certifications, e. g. CompTIA Nework+ courses. The exams are/were(took Cisco some years back) timed and tough. The idea is to provide employers with a certificate which indicates ability to do the work.
For an old guy, the timed part is tough, there isn’t much time to check answers. My CISCO was 94, too slow to make a good living.
At my CC, the beginning networking class book is 775 pages with objectives to pass exam.
It is interesting to see texts go to say Cengage, commercial, not college profs writing books for their classes. The Cengage books are very good from my experience.
I have no axe to grind, very grateful for my Mad experience, grateful I made it through math, note my phrase. I made it through, very far from brilliant; it was not sociology however.
We have the raw materials in the US, our intellectual capital is rapidly depreciating, the boomers are fading. This is serious stuff, one can go from top of the world to bottom in one generation of poor education. China and others are now in the education game, they are damn good.
Dennis L.
Cargo cult expects piece of paper to confer competency.
No, only expect paper to certify a measurement of competency.
Narratives are not working well.
Dennis L.
cc system creates good mules for the system. Its graduates are not headed for leadership. Name a US president who attended cc, or someone in the leadership. I don’t think the heads or executives of major companies are from cc.
It is a screening process, screening those who were serious on something from those who were ‘skirting around’.
And the rigors of today’s industry, including efforts to bring forth your mythical cubic mile of pt, are done by ph.ds from prestigious universities, not by cc graduates. You either get ccs or your cubic mile of pt.
Well,
Gates, no degree
Dell, no degree
Musk, undergraduate only, no PhD.
Edison, no degree
Ford no degree
John Deere no degree
Truman attended University of Missouri-KC, no record of a degree.
Now Wilson, Princeton, Ph.D. Johns Hopkins and WWI, league of nations.
Don’t think most, maybe almost all in leadership positions are what you think.
With regards to Pt, you miss the subtle humor.
Thanks for the note.
Dennis L.
But the dropouts at least did enter real universities, not ccs.
People like Truman grew up too long ago to be compared properly, but I have reviewed some resumes myself and those looking for executive positions tend to not show their CC days, only indicating when they graduated from some state universities. Of course skilled screeners, and probably the AI which are reading most resumes now, can identify those who would rather hide what they did after graduating from high school and can quickly toss such pieces of garbage.
Raining hard here, yesterday sun, day before rain.
I think climate change is here, dealing with it is a challenge. Hard to get into fields, need sun to dry.
Going to be peddle to the metal with electric vehicles, etc.
Dennis L.
Because you knew this was eventually going to happen. There’s nothing like needing to charge youe EV on the way home and the EV chaging station has gone missing. 😜
“Thieves In Seattle Targeting EV Charging Stations Has Reached “Epidemic Proportions”
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/seattle-thieves-targeting-ev-charging-stations-has-reached-epidemic-proportions
Ford CEO sends a stern warning for American car buyers
The American “affordable EV” is coming, but don’t expect it to be the kind of American car you’re used to.
James OchoaUpdated:Jul 3, 2024 1:45 PM EDT the Street
….However, Farley indicated that the next generation of electric Ford vehicles will not be the oversized SUVs and trucks that the Blue Oval is known for, as the team is focused on more compact, affordable vehicles that can turn a profit for the brand.
Despite American’s desire for larger-than-life vehicles that boast more than 300-400 miles of range, Farley argues that those kind of expectations on such a vehicle will be unprofitable and prohibitively expensive for not only the company, but the consumer.
“You have to make a radical change as an [automaker] to get to a profitable EV. The first thing we have to do is really put all of our capital toward smaller, more affordable EVs. That’s the duty cycle that we’ve now found that really matches. These big, huge, enormous EVs, they’re never going to make money. The battery is $50,000… The batteries will never be affordable,” Farley stated. In a statement to EV blog Teslarati, a Ford representative indicated that the CEO was toying with the idea of an electric version of the brand’s Super Duty heavy-duty pickup trucks, and not the F-150 Lightning
We have to start to get back in love with smaller vehicles. It’s super important for our society and for EV adoption. We are just in love with these monster vehicles, and I love them too, but it’s a major issue with weight.
“If we cannot make money on EVs, we have competitors who have the largest market in the world, who already dominate globally, already setting up their supply chain around the world. And if we don’t make profitable EVs in the next five years, what is the future? We will just shrink into North America,” Farley said.
Chris Farley LIVES
I am afraid that “shrinking into North America” is a real possibility, in the next few years, regardless of Ford does. We will be less able to buy raw materials abroad, and Ford’s vehicles will not sell well abroad.
I am doubtful that we will have the charging capability for these trucks here in North America. Maybe a few trucks used on farms can have the charging capability. But wind and solar degrade electricity supply; they don’t really add to electricity supply.
A nice dystopian satire from Ugo Bardi. He posted it on his substack in June.
The Day When Food Ran Out
https://chimeras.substack.com/p/the-day-when-food-ran-out
Why do I then see so many people who are extremely heavy? Even the panhandlers on the street corners hustling are heavy.
Dennis L.
Actually, have not seen one starving handhandler once in all my life, thank the Lord. But that does not mean I won’t.
Need one major worldwide crop failure , some trade gridlock, and supply chain stoppage…ahh, that can’t happen….
If it keeps raining, food prices might go up.
Dennis L.
Dennis ,” If ” . In Belgium food prices are 30% above last year . I keep track and my grocery list has not changed . Very careful about what goes down my gob .
They are eating mostly over processed foods. Such foods are easily available to poor people. It is hard to keep a supply of fresh fruits and vegetables in inner city stores. Also, fast food is an easy option for feeding a family, but it lacks in proper nutrition.
Pushing back.
Bring Home Economics back to schools. Get portions back to reasonable size. This brings the economics back into the home. Junk food is not cheap, it is easy and it has a taste which encourages one to eat more.
I can eat reasonably cheap if I avoid cod and salmon, splurge on chicken breasts not whole chicken. As a kid we had liver, cheap, made a man out of a young kid, got your iron. Liver anyone?
Note, Amish seem overweight, they eat natural.
Driving a truck is hard on health, no exercise, horrible road food.
I love the jelly filled bismarks, when I use the restroom after gassing, I run past the bin with that stuff; it tastes so good and goes down so easily especially when it is topped with a quarter inch of sugar frosting. Getting out the door without one is a victory lap.
I don’t eat liver.
Dennis L.
Okay,
As a kid we had an apple tree, a plum tree and some bush with fruits. Mom canned, fruit cellar for winter. Garden as well, half the yard.
Bring nature back to the inner cities.
Have you noticed the size of some of the cabinet members? Don’t think money is the problem.
Dennis L.
In other words, gentrify the inner cities.
I was a child in an inner city in England in the 1960s. There were plenty of greengrocers with fresh produce.
Parents (mothers) had time to make meals.
I think that’s the difference.
the difference may be that—-when one parent earned enough, one could stay home and make meals, now income survival needs both parents.
Second paragraph, bingo, you got it.
A team is complimentary, not the similar.
Dennis L.
We ‘ad it tough!
Mum and Dad went out to work, but granny was home all day and cooked the most delicious exotic meals such as egg & chips, fish & chips, rissoles & chips, peas pudding & boiled bacon, Yorkshire pudding, and her pièce de résistance—shepherd’s pie.
Laughing quietly.
My grandma lived with us, her husband killed on the railroad at 35.
My memories of that life are very positive, actually had time to sit on porch and talk, people would come by to visit.
It wasn’t perfect but we had a good part of the 20%, we had religion which kept the 80% at bay.
Not sure about rissoles, but we had liver and sight unseen will trade some liver for rissoles.
Dennis L.
The story is set in a semi-fictional future. Pay attention, Dennis, or I’ll make you wear a dunce’s cap.
One day you’ll wake up wondering what day it is. Then the extreme hunger pangs will kick in again, and you’ll scream, “Oh no – it’s THE FUTURE!”
CACTUS
IGNORED
07/05/2024 at 12:54 am
The problem is the industrial revolution allowed people to abandon God as their primary source of salvation and adopt career goals and offspring carrer goals as their primary source of salvation. As fossil fuels deplete people will be reduced of the ability to receive salvation through career growth and materialism. In other words, as peak oil sets in, people will “lose their religion”. People are going to go insane when they study for many year only to find no job prospects. It’s not that the basic need won’t be met, it’s that the spiritual needs won’t be met because we have gotten so used to a secular way of thinking.
Could be. I think that government promises of pension plans and of government insurance against layoffs from jobs helped, as well. Today’s government is there to save me; what else do I need? There are insurance policies as well, supposedly providing life insurance and pension plans, and protection against practically all perils for a person’s home.
We hear a nonsense narrative that people believe. Somehow, it has to unwind.
This is another one of your ideas which I seriously consider.
While currently it is not reality, inflation is. Building materials are off the wall expensive.
When I purchased the wind turbine in the weeds I thought of you. What is the difference in risk between this pile of scrap metal and a piece of paper from a government trillions in debt with trillions of interest payments?
I want to believe in the debt, but the scrap metal may be the insurance and if nothing else, it is a project, gives something to do in life.
Will a soon to be 78 year old man actually erect a 120 foot tower and then place a generator on top of same?
Reminds me of Mike Tyson and plans going into a fight, things change after first contact.
Dennis L.
Agree, Diesen had an introduction to his latest book on the role religion played in civil society.
Dennis L.
The future is now
https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-kid-stayed-north-korea-summer-camp-songdowon-tried-brainwash-2024-7?amp
I stayed at a North Korean summer camp. We polished statues and played a game where we destroyed the White House.
As told to Joshua Zitser Jul 3, 2024, 7:51 AM E
For me, it didn’t work — the propaganda was too straightforward.
Also, I was too frustrated with the strict schedule to be brainwashed. For example, when I was sick, they wouldn’t let me skip early-morning exercise.
The food was also really bad. The only things I could eat were rice, wedges, and bread.
I lost about 11 pounds in 15 days, even though I was already skinny.
After leaving, I craved capitalist food so badly that I bought three Burger King burgers, two large fries, and a cola. It was impossible to eat all that, but I just wanted it so bad.
Despite the boring, miserable and overly controlled experience, I returned the next year. I don’t like confrontation, and the Communist Party officials had already signed me up, so I went again.
It was a stupid decision to return, and I don’t know why my parents let me go, but I’d totally do it again.
I can easily make friends just by talking about my experiences — people just want to hear about North Korea.
Perhaps much of the problem was sanctions. As I understand it, when sanctioned western firms cannot deal with the sanctioned.
N. Korea was not going to be bought?
The western model does away with religion, indeed is hostile to it. Religion is the personal guidance as I understand it. Saves a great deal on society, gives people an individual set of rules which have worked over time.
God is one and overall, religions are “local” and survive because they work. Indeed, they are free market with a different brand on every corner, mostly same God. All roads lead in one direction, more or less.
Getting some of these ideas from Glenn Diesen. Hey, he is in Norway, got to be good.
Dennis L.
I suppose this is the kind of thing that could happen in North Korea, or in any place that is very energy deficient.
Business Insider = Belling cat = Deep State .
Ignore .
My guess is that only a very few people can afford to send their children to this camp in North Korea.
Gail , Kim will even pay you to join the program . Just ignore , propaganda . If you believe this , then you also believe that Ukraine is winning . File 13 ( waste paper basket in a lawyer’s office ) .
It’s all a bit obvious, isn’t it.
“I lost about 11 pounds in 15 days, even though I was already skinny.
After leaving, I craved capitalist food so badly that I bought three Burger King burgers, two large fries, and a cola”
That would be the absolute last thing I would think about when I badly needed nutrition and hydration, but extra pay for the branding I hope.
$300 for the camp, the child is Russian…
If he was US American forgetaboutit
Otto Frederick Warmbier (December 12, 1994 – June 19, 2017) was an American college student who was imprisoned in North Korea in 2016 on a charge of subversion. In June 2017, he was released by North Korea in a vegetative state and died soon after his parents requested his feeding tube be removed.
This probably is a good will exchange program to make nice between Russia and Kim
PS odd he was able to get junk food still in Russia
An interesting ELM observation .
https://peakoilbarrel.com/short-term-energy-outlook-june-2024/#comment-777954
This link says:
“Now, if we look again at the top 27 oil producing countries, subtract the amount of oil they consume, then we see that current (excluding tight oil) oil exports from this group are at 1980’s levels…
Peak exports from the top 27 were in 1998…”
With a chart, supposedly put together on such a basis.
I don’t know how such a chart can be put together. Consumption will always include tight oil–you can’t pull it back out. Maybe, it is possible to pull it out on production. Perhaps US exports of oil were set to zero, leaving only its imports. I don’t know.
Oil is over.
Kentucky supposedly has some of the world’s largest lithium supplies in coal country; refining is a problem, very dirty, polluting.
Electric tractors, battery exchange, local storage. Wind power. Now, why am I thinking wind?
You have me convinced oil is going to be a problem, now on to solutions.
Where is my cubic mile of Pt?
Dennis L.
Gail , population 1998 ( peak exports) was 6 billion today we are 8 billion . US exports of 4,8 mbpd ( only LTO) is not going to move the needle a lot when you look at at from the POV of energy( oil) available per capita . Oil is a a fungible commodity , So what is the answer ? Is it increased efficiency or lower prosperity ?
P.S : My opinion , it is lower prosperity because efficiency is governed by the laws of Physics which are immutable . Further it is diesel producing oils that matters and that is what Kengeo was getting at . The reduction if prosperity is not even , some areas are more affected . I an not even talking about the financial engineering used to disguise the fall .