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Where could the economy be headed now?
Today, there is great wage and wealth disparity, just as there was in the late 1920s. Recent energy consumption growth has been low, just as it was in the 1920s. A significant difference today is that the debt level of the US government is already at an extraordinarily high level. Adding more debt now is fraught with peril.
Where could the economy go from here? In this post, I look at some historical relationships to understand better where the economy has been and where it could be headed. While debt levels and interest rates are important to the economy, a growing supply of suitable inexpensive energy products is just as important.
At the end, I speculate a little regarding where the US, Canada, and Europe could be headed. Division of current economies into parts could be ahead. While the problems of the late 1920s eventually led to World War II, it may be possible for the parts that are better supplied with energy resources to avoid getting into another major war, at least for a while.
[1] Government regulators have been using interest rates and debt availability for a very long time to try to regulate how the economy operates.
I have chosen to analyze US data because the US is the world’s largest economy. The US is also the holder of the world’s “reserve currency,” allowing demand for the US dollar (really US debt) to stay high because of its demand for use in international trade.
Comparing Figure 1 and Figure 2, it is clear that there is a close relationship between the charts. In particular, the highest interest rate in 1981 on Figure 2 corresponds to the lowest ratio of US government debt to GDP on Figure 1.
Up until 1981, the changes in interest rates were either imposed by market forces (“You can’t borrow that much without paying a higher rate”) or else as part of an attempt by the US Federal Reserve to slow an economy that was growing too fast for the available labor supply. After 1981, the same market dynamics no doubt took place, but the overall attempt at intervention by the US Federal Reserve seems to have been in the direction of speeding up an economy that wasn’t growing as fast as desired.
In Figure 2, the 3-month interest rates correspond fairly closely to government target interest rates. The 10-year interest rates tend to move on their own, perhaps somewhat influenced by Quantitative Easing (QE), in which the US government buys back some of its own debt to try to hold down longer-term interest rates. These longer-term interest rates influence US long-term mortgage interest rates.
Recent monthly data show that 10-year interest rates started rising very quickly after reaching a minimum following the Covid response in early 2020. The lowest 10-year average rates took place in July 2020, and rates started moving up in August 2020.
This suggests to me that market forces play a significant role in 10-year interest rates. As soon as people started borrowing money to remodel or to move to a new suburban location, 10-year interest rates, and likely the related mortgage rates, started to drift upward again. If this observation is correct, the Federal Reserve has some control over interest rates, but it cannot adjust the 10-year interest rates underlying mortgages and other long-term debt by as much as it might like.
The apparent inability of the Federal Reserve to adjust longer-term interest rates to as low a level as it would like is concerning because the US government debt level is very high now (Figure 1). Being forced to pay 4% (or more) on long-term debt that rolls over could create a huge cash flow issue for the US government. More debt could be required simply to pay interest on existing debt!
[2] An analysis of actual growth in US GDP over time shows how successful the changing strategies in Figures 1 and 2 have been.
In the 1930s, the US and much of the rest of the world were in the Great Depression. Interest rates were close to 0% (not shown on Figure 2, but available from the same data). Various versions of the New Deal under President Roosevelt were started in 1933 to 1945. Social Security was added in 1935. Figure 4 shows that these programs temporarily increased GDP, but they did not entirely solve the problem that had been caused by defaulting debt and failing banks.
Entering World War II was a huge success for increasing US GDP (Figure 4). Many more women were added to the workforce, making munitions and taking over jobs that men had held before they were drafted into the army.
After the war was over, the total number of jobs available dropped greatly. Somehow, private sector growth needed to be ramped, using debt of some kind, to provide jobs for the returning soldiers and others left without work. An abundant supply of fossil fuels was available, if debt-based demand could be put into place to pull the economy along. Programs were put into place to get factories running again making goods for the civilian economy. Additional jobs and energy demand were created by upgrading the electrical grid, increasing pipeline infrastructure, and (in 1956) starting work on an interstate highway system.
During the period between 1950 to 2023, the average growth rate of the US economy gradually stepped downward, despite all of the debt-based stimulus that was being added after 1981, as shown in Figure 5.
[3] While growing debt is important for pulling an economy forward, a growing supply of energy is essential to actually produce physical goods and services.
Economic growth involves producing physical goods and services. The laws of physics tell us that energy supplies of the right types, in the right quantities, are necessary to make the goods and services that the physical economy depends upon.
The rate of growth of world energy supply has been stepping down over the years, as the easiest (and cheapest) to extract fossil fuels tend to get extracted first. The average rate of increase of all energy supply (not just fossil fuels) is shown in Figure 6:
Comparing Figures 5 and 6, we can see that average annual US GDP growth approximately matched growth in world energy supplies in the first two periods: 1950-1970 and 1971-1980.
In the period 1981-2007, average US GDP growth (of 3.2%) soared above world energy consumption growth (of 2.1%). I would attribute this primarily to outsourcing a significant share of the US’s industrial production as the economy shifted to becoming more of a service economy. There were multiple advantages to moving to a service economy. US oil supply had become restricted, and a service economy would use less oil. Also, the costs of imported goods would be much lower than those made in the US for several reasons, including more efficient newly built factories, lower-wage workers, and the use of inexpensive coal as a fuel instead of oil.
The encouragement of increased use of “leverage” under Ronald Reagan in the US and Margaret Thatcher in the UK no doubt added to the effect of using more debt shown in Figure 1. The US government started borrowing more money, rather than increasing taxes. Businesses became larger and more complex. International trade started playing a larger role.
Recent low growth in energy supplies has created an economic problem that added debt has only partially been able to hide. (In the latest period (2008-2023), both US average GDP growth (at 1.8%) and world energy consumption growth (at 1.5%) were very low.) Figure 1 shows that the US added huge amounts of debt, both after the 2008 financial crisis, and at the time of the Covid response in 2020. If it weren’t for these huge debt infusions, US GDP growth would no doubt have been much lower. GDP counts the quantity of goods and services produced, not whether added debt has been used to manufacture these goods, or whether customers have used debt to purchase these goods.
[4] In some ways, the world economy today is like the economy of the 1920s.
The 1920s were characterized by both the rising use of debt (especially consumer credit), and wide wage and wealth disparities. This was a time of innovation. Some farmers had modern new equipment that greatly enhanced efficiency, while most farmers could not afford this equipment.
Figure 7 shows a pattern of wage disparity that operates in precisely the opposite direction from the interest rate pattern shown in Figure 2. The lower the interest rates, the more the concentration of wealth among a very small portion of the population. The higher the interest rates, the more evenly wage and wealth is divided.
A comparison of Figure 7 with Figure 6 and Figure 5 shows that (at least for the years since 1950), faster energy consumption growth seems to lead to faster economic growth. With faster economic growth, the economy can support higher interest rates and higher wages for lower-paid workers. There is less push for “complexity” to try to replace workers with machines.
When energy consumption growth is low, the economy tends to grow more slowly. The interest rates that corporations and individuals can afford to pay are relatively low. With low interest rates, asset prices of all kinds soar because monthly payments to buy these assets fall. The prices of stocks, bonds, homes, and farms tend to soar. The already rich become richer and richer, as the poor are increasingly squeezed out of the economy.
Physicist Francois Roddier has said that physics dictates the outcome of widely diverging incomes when energy supply is low. It takes much less energy to supply an economy of a few rich people and many poor people than it takes to support an economy with relatively equal incomes. The vast majority of the supposed wealth of the rich exists as promises that can only be fulfilled in the future if there is enough energy of the right kinds to fulfill these promises. Their promised future wealth does not affect today’s energy use. While the energy use of rich people is somewhat higher than that of poor people, much of the difference disappears when a person considers the fact that much of their wealth is essentially “paper wealth” that may or may not actually be present as the future actually unfolds.
Both the 1920s and the latest period (2008-2023) are very low energy-growth periods. The fact that (2008-2023) is a low energy growth period (at 1.5% per year) can be seen on Figure 6. Energy supply was growing even slightly more slowly in the 1920s (based on data from Vaclav Smil’s Energy Transitions). Population was growing by 1.1% per year in both the 1920s and in the latest period (2008-2023.) Net energy consumption per capita growth was slightly negative (-0.1%) in the 1920s and only a very small positive percentage (0.4%) in the 2008-2023 period. Per capita consumption had been growing much more quickly between 1950 and 1980.
[5] The economy becomes very fragile when the growth of energy supply is low, compared to the growth of the world’s population.
Hidden beneath the surface is the problem that there is not enough energy to go around. This problem doesn’t manifest itself in high prices; it manifests itself in unusually large wage disparities. Very rich individuals (such as Bill Gates and Elon Musk) gain excessive influence. Special interests and their drive for profits also become important. At times, this drive for profits can come ahead of the well-being of citizens.
Citizens become more quarrelsome. Differences between and within political parties become greater. Political candidates no longer treat other candidates with the respect we would have expected in the past. The problem is, in some sense, the problem of a game of musical chairs.
Initially, the game has as many players as chairs. The players walk around the outside of the group of chairs as the music plays. In each round, one chair is removed and the players must scramble for the remaining chairs. The person who does not get a chair is eliminated from the game.
[6] It seems to me that major parts of the world economy are transitioning from a growth mode to a mode of shrinkage.
Figure 9 gives a representation of how the world’s growing economy can be visualized, and how it may change in the future.
The fact that growth in the consumption of fossil fuel energy supplies has been retreating to lower levels should be of concern (Figure 6). At some point, the world economy will be in a situation in which the amount of fossil fuels we can extract is falling. While we have some add-ons to the fossil fuel system (including hydroelectric, nuclear, wind, and solar), they are all manufactured using the fossil fuel system and repaired using the fossil fuel system. These add-ons would stop producing not long after the fossil fuel system stops producing. They need fossil fuels to make replacement parts, among other problems.
The amount of growth in energy supply determines the growth in physical goods and services that can be produced. In periods of rapid growth, borrowing from the future, even at a high interest rate, makes sense. In periods of low growth, only loans with a very low interest rate are feasible. When the economy is shrinking, very few investments can repay loans requiring interest.
Needless to say, repaying debt with interest becomes much more difficult in a shrinking economy. In the US, our underlying problem is that since 1981, the US’s financial policy has been “throw every tool in the tool box” at stimulating the economy. We are now running out of tools to stimulate the economy to grow faster. Adding more debt isn’t likely to work very well, or for very long.
At this point, the many government-funded investments aimed at providing green energy and offering transportation by electricity are not paying back well. Citizens are repeatedly being told that there is a need to move away from fossil fuels to prevent climate change. But world CO2 emissions continue to rise. They simply moved to a different part of the world.
[7] What does history since 1920 say may be ahead?
It is hard to see that things will turn out well, but we do know that historical civilizations have collapsed over a period of many years. We can hope that if we are facing the collapse of at least part of the world’s economy, this collapse will also be slow. Some intermediate steps along the line likely include the following:
(a) Stock market collapses. After excessive speculation in the stock market in the late 1920s, the stock market collapsed on October 29, 1929, starting the Great Depression. Another major crash occurred in 2008, during the Great Recession. Both of these speculative bubbles seem to have been fueled by low short-term interest rates.
(b) Drops in the prices of homes, farms, and other assets. The Great Depression is noted for major drops in the prices of farms. The Great Recession is known for major drops in the prices of homes. We are now facing a situation with far too much Commercial Real Estate. Its price logically should fall. Farmers are also having difficulty because wholesale food prices are too low relative to the various costs involved, including interest payments relating to equipment purchases and mortgages. The problem is especially acute if farm property has been purchased at currently inflated prices. The prices of farms logically should fall, also.
(c) Debt defaults, related to asset price drops. Banks, insurance companies, pension plans and many individuals owning bonds will be badly affected if defaults on loans or bonds start increasing. (In fact, even if the market interest rates simply rise, the carrying value on financial statements is likely to fall.) If commercial real estate or a farm is sold and the sales price is less than the outstanding debt, the bank issuing the loan will be left with a loss. This debt is often resold, with credit rating agencies falling short in indicating how risky the debt really is.
(d) Failing banks, failing insurance companies, and failing pension plans. Even bankrupt governments defaulting on their loans.
With failing banks, there is less money in circulation. The tendency is for commodity prices to fall very low, putting farmers in worse financial shape than before. They cut back on production. Food production and transport use considerable amounts of oil. Reduced food production leads to less need for oil consumption and thus, falling oil prices. With low oil prices, production tends to fall.
(e) If a government survives, it may try to issue much more debt-based money to try to raise prices. This might work if the country is able to produce all goods locally. But the huge amount of new money (and debt) will not be honored by other countries. The result is likely to be hyperinflation, and still no goods to buy.
(f) Persecution of the wealthier people blamed for society’s problems. If people are poor, and there aren’t enough goods to go around, there is a tendency to find someone to blame for the problem. In Europe, prior to World War II, the Nazis persecuted the Jews. The Jews were often rich and worked in finance or the jewelry business.
(g) War. War gives the possibility of obtaining resources elsewhere. Figure 4 shows that going to war can greatly ramp up GDP. It is a way of putting laid-off workers back to work. It is an age-old solution to not-enough-resources-to-go-around.
[8] Can any political approach put off the bad impacts suggested in Section [7] above?
A country that can provide complete supply chains based on its own resources, completely within its own borders can be somewhat insulated from these problems, as long as its resources are adequate for its population. I don’t think that any of the Advanced Countries (members of the OECD, which is similar to the US and its allies) can do that today. The US is closer to this ideal than Europe, but it is still a long way away. The central and southern part of the US, which is where Donald Trump’s support is strong, is closer to this ideal than elsewhere.
Trump is advocating adding tariffs on imported goods. Such tariffs would work in the direction of independence from China, India, and other industrialized nations. Trump also seems to advocate staying out of wars, wherever possible. If an area is doing well in terms of energy supply (including food supply), this would be a good strategy.
Kamala Harris is advocating capping today’s food prices. This would please city-dwellers, but it would encourage farmers to quit farming. Capping today’s food prices would also discourage the importation of food from elsewhere, leaving many empty shelves in grocery stores. Indirectly, it would also have an adverse impact on the world’s oil production and the quantity of food grown elsewhere.
Giving more money to poor people would almost certainly lead to more government debt. If countries in Europe were to do this, it would almost certainly devalue their currencies. They would find it harder to import goods from anywhere else in the world.
In fact, the US would likely also encounter difficulty in importing as many goods from elsewhere, if it chooses to give more money to poor people (and fund this generosity through more debt). China and Russia would have even more motivation to abandon the US dollar for trading purposes than they do today. The US, Europe, and other Advanced Economies would increasingly find imported goods unavailable.
Wind, solar, and electric vehicles are not fixing the economy now. Adding more debt to subsidize these efforts would likely have the same bad effects as adding more debt to subsidize poor people.
[9] A guess as to what could be ahead for the US, Canada, and Europe.
Donald Trump is suggesting tariffs and other policies that might be helpful for the parts of the US, Canada, and Mexico that think they might have enough resources to more or less get along on their own in the near future. This includes much of the central and southern part of the US. Central Canada would fit into this pattern, as well. Mexico is connected by pipeline to this area, too. At least in the US, Trump is favored in these areas.
In the highly populated areas along both US coasts, the debt-based policies of Kamala Harris will seem more reasonable because these sections have limited resources to rely on, but lots of population. The only solution they can imagine is more debt. I expect that Europe and the coasts of Canada will follow Kamala Harris’s strategies, but with their own leaders.
I can imagine a scenario in which after the US election, the US will break apart into two sections: a Trump section in the center of the US, and a Harris portion consisting mostly of the two coasts, and perhaps a few northern states. The Trump section will band together with Central Canada and Mexico and try to keep operating for some years longer. The Harris portion will join together with the coasts of Canada and most of Europe to get into war with Russia and China. The Harris portion will issue lots more debt. The Harris group will forget that their areas cannot really make many armaments without a huge amount of international trade. As a result, the Harris group will have great difficulty in being successful at war.
There is no stopping us now
Us Today.. originally in Wired
Anna Lagos
GearAug 27, 2024 3:32 PM
China Conquers Mexico’s Automotive Market, and the US Is Worried
Led by the automaker BYD, China has established itself as the main car supplier in Mexico. The US worries China could use Mexico as a “back door” to sidestep tariffs and gain footing in the US market.
Image may contain Water Waterfront Outdoors Boat Transportation Vehicle Car and Parking Lot
Both the United States and the European Union have escalated a trade war against China.NurPhoto/Getty Images
China has positioned itself as the main car supplier in Mexico, with exports reaching $4.6 billion in 2023, according to data from Mexico’s Secretariat of Economy.
The Chinese automaker BYD surpassed Honda and Nissan to position itself as the seventh largest automaker in the world by number of units sold during the April to June quarter. This growth was driven by increased demand for its affordable electric vehicles, according to data from automakers and research firm MarkLines.
The company’s new vehicle sales rose 40 percent year over year to 980,000 units in the quarter—the same quarter wherein most major automakers, including Toyota and Volkswagen, experienced a decline in sales. Much of BYD’s growth is attributed to its overseas sales, which nearly tripled in the past year to 105,000 units. Now BYD is considering locating its new auto plant in three Mexican states: Durango, Jalisco, and Nuevo Leon.
Foreign investment would be an economic boost for Mexico. The company has claimed that a plant there would create about 10,000 jobs. A Tesla competitor, BYD markets its Dolphin Mini model in Mexico for about 398,800 pesos—about $21,300 dollars—a little more than half the price of the cheapest Tesla model.
Prevented from selling their wares to the United States due to tariffs, Chinese EV manufacturers have explored other markets to sell their high-tech cars. However, as Mexico establishes itself as a key market for Chinese electric vehicles, officials in Washington fear that Mexico could be used as a “back door” to access the US market.
That tariff-free access is part of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (T-MEC), an updated version of the North American Free Trade Agreement that, as of 2018, eliminated tariffs on many products traded between the North American countries. Under the treaty, if a foreign automotive company that manufactures vehicles in Canada or Mexico can demonstrate that the materials used are locally sourced, its products can be exported to the United States virtually duty-free.
According to official figures, 20 percent of light vehicles sold last year in Mexico were imported from China, representing 273,592 units and a 50 percent increase compared to 2022. Currently, most of the vehicles imported from China come from Western brands that have established manufacturing plants in that country, such as General Motors, Ford, Chrysler, BMW, and Renault.
Mexico is the second largest market for Chinese automobiles worldwide, behind only Russia, according to data from Linked Global Solutions, a company specializing in business between China and Latin American countries.
A Trade War Against China
Both the United States and the European Union have intensified a trade war against China, focusing on automobiles and semiconductor chip production, which have been the subject of investigations for predatory practices, tariffs, and restrictions. This new geopolitical strategy is prompting Western companies to look for alternatives to relocate their factories outside of China, a trend known as “nearshoring.”
Concerned about the potential impact on domestic automakers, the US has raised tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles to 100 percent. Canada is also considering implementing its own tariffs on Chinese-made vehicles.
In July, the European Union began imposing additional tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and, on Tuesday, proposed to increase the rate to 36.3 percent. Faced with this situation, BYD has decided to build a new factory in Turkey to avoid these tariffs.
For the Japanese manufacturers who are lagging behind, the North American market—where Chinese electric vehicles have had little penetration due to these high tariffs—is becoming more relevant. As demand for electric vehicles slows in North America, hybrids from Toyota and Honda are gaining popularity. However, it remains to be seen whether this new interest will offset declining sales in China and other markets.
China entering the Mexican market in the automotive sector is relevant because, for Mexico, automobiles are replacing oil in economic importance. The automotive industry contributes 4.8 percent of the country’s GDP, and its exports are the main source of foreign currency income. In addition, it generates 1 million direct jobs and, due to its high impact, creates 3.5 million indirect jobs. In the third quarter of the year, 22 percent of the foreign direct investment (FDI) that entered the country went to this industry.
Mexico, the Export Powerhouse
Mexico rose from fourth to third place among the world’s largest automotive exporters from 2022 to 2023, according to data from the World Trade Organization. This advance was driven mainly by a remarkable growth in automotive exports, which registered an increase of 14.33 percent, reaching a value of $189 billion in 2023.
The automotive industry has become the main driver of Mexican exports, accounting for 31 percent of the country’s total exports in 2023. This sector has not only sustained economic growth, but has also demonstrated significant regional integration, especially under the framework of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which has favored the competitiveness and modernization of the industry.
Mexico managed to marginally displace Japan and the United States in the world ranking of automotive exporters, moving up to third place. Meanwhile, the European Union remained firmly in first place and China moved up from fifth to second place. This change is largely due to significant growth in vehicle exports from Mexico, which now account for 31 percent of its total exports, consolidating the country as a powerhouse in the global automotive industry. Strong regional integration under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement has also been a key factor in this rise.
The European Union led automotive exports in 2023, reaching a total of $831 billion. It was followed by China with $170 billion, Mexico with $158 billion, Japan with $157 billion, and the United States, also with $157 billion.
These values include exports of light and heavy vehicles, as well as auto parts and automotive components, reflecting the dynamism and competitiveness of these markets. In particular, Mexico’s growth in this sector has been remarkable, consolidating its position as an export powerhouse.
Like Automotive will replace oil as main export for Mexico…
American cars are too expensive for most Mexicans to afford. I can understand why Mexico would want to import Chinese cars instead.
I am not sure how much fuel would be available to drive these additional cars however. Mexico’s peak in oil production was in 2004. It had fallen to about half of the 2004 level in 2018. It is up a bit in 2023. Mexico’s production was only 2.0 million barrels a day in 2023, according to the Energy Institute’s report. Data through May, available from the EIA, seems to suggest that crude production is down a little in 2024.
The rise of the ghost jobs
https://youtu.be/-FAYkoAeTVU?si=SFHRExTjzuyLvscb
This is a very good video. At one point, it says that the number of hires (in a one-month period??), relative to the number of posted job openings, has fallen from 8 hires per 10 supposed openings to 4 hires per 10 supposed openings. This suggests that a whole lot of the reported openings are not really available. These jobs may have been authorized at some time, but current financing doesn’t offer enough money to hire. Or businesses may be just testing the market to figure out how much they might have to pay for what kind of qualifications, if they do decide to hire.
Government analyses, based on the JOLTS index, don’t use the same information as the online postings, at least supposedly. But their information about available job openings could be distorted on the high side, as well.
Job seekers are warned to be wary of job openings that have been open for many months. Also, ones with blurry titles, such as “Sales Superstar.”
The actual market for many jobs seems to be much tighter than the number of online job openings suggests, leading to a lot of frustration for would-be workers. They may feel that they need to leave their resumes up on job boards, indefinitely, if they are to be able to move to some other job. This further adds to the confusion.
A former graduate student married into a family which is all in the corporate world. Hr mentioned fake jobs more than a month ago, same description. I thought it could be just a low statistics opinion, but I see it is a thing.
China is actually doing green energy!
http://en.people.cn/n3/2024/0830/c90000-20212148.html
According to the white paper, the country’s installed capacity of clean energy reached 1,700 GW last year, or 58.2 percent of the country’s total installed power generation capacity. Clean energy accounted for 26.4 percent of the country’s total energy use in 2023, up from 15.5 percent in 2013, while the share of coal in its energy consumption dropped 12.1 percentage points during the past decade.
China is trying to figure out what to do with inadequate coal consumption. The coal that is available now is from distant locations. It is expensive to transport. It tends to require oil to transport.
Electrical generating station at coal mouth, electrified railway to transport excess, or part of the Russia/China corridor?
Dennis L.
Putting things in perspective:
“Despite many nations transitioning away from fossil fuels, in 2023, world coal consumption reached a staggering 164 exajoules (EJ) of energy, a record high for any year.”
“In 2023, China increased its coal consumption from 88 EJ to nearly 92 EJ—totalling 56% of global coal consumption. This contributed significantly to Asia Pacific leading the world with a staggering 83% of global coal consumption.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/china-dominates-global-coal-consumption
“Clean energy” … right.
Truth and Energy at the Crossroads:
https://archive.ph/HRkmB
My impression is that China is adding wind and solar in a desperate attempt to try to stretch its limited (at a high level) coal supply.
Also, coal is increasingly at a distance, and this adds a need for oil to ship it. If it can be burned in place as backup to wind and solar, and the combination shipped by transmission lines to population centers, it would save oil. Wind and solar might also save water, which is also in short supply.
Another issue is that China has been building wind and solar for a world export market. It has been hard to sell as much as is being made, so China ends up with a lot of the wind and solar that would otherwise go elsewhere.
“If it can be burned in place as backup to wind and solar, ”
This could be done I think with enough engineering. But the current way we burn coal in boilers to make steam does not work well for filling in wind and solar.
It takes a long time to start up and shut down existing steam plants. And they don’t take well to thermal cycling.
You can burn some types of powered coal in turbines, or the coal can be converted to gas. Gas turbines deal with startups much faster.
More mosquito lockdowns!
Quebec towns near U.S. border alerted as Vermont faces mosquito-borne illness threat
“Vermont’s health department is urging residents of several towns, including one bordering Quebec, to stay indoors from dusk to dawn to prevent the spread of a mosquito-borne illness.
Certain towns are considered at high risk for eastern equine encephalitis (EEE), which the state’s health department describes as a rare but serious disease caused by a virus that spreads through the bite of an infected mosquito.
High-risk towns currently include Alburgh, Burlington, Colchester and Swanton. Swanton is about eight kilometres from Quebec and Alburgh borders the province.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/mosquito-eastern-equine-encephalitis-quebec-vermont-1.7309955
This is an interesting discussion
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=U9bntiCTl8s&feature=youtu.be
He’s a lot more political now
This is titled, “COMING IN 2025: Hyperinflation, Famine, & More Wars | Simon Michaux”
I have listened to part of this video. He agrees that a transition to wind and solar, and cars powered by lithium ion batteries isn’t going to work. He has some ideas, including use of ammonia to power some types of vehicles that might work, and some that are less conventional. He thinks that any transition is likely to take many years.
If home prices start dropping, Michaux thinks that banks will start demanding more collateral for loans outstanding. He thinks that they may even foreclose on a house because the value of the house falls. (I wonder about this-perhaps I didn’t understand). I think that instead, we may be seeing bail-ins of owners of banks, as they are asked to support banks will failing loans.
Or maybe the average home will be 2 million but two million won’t get you much
Maybe they will seize it to pay off the debt?
“He thinks that they may even foreclose on a house because the value of the house falls. ”
I doubt this is possible under the law. Also, I know a person whose house was well under water the last time housing prices fell and the bank made no such hints. I think it is much more likely that people will walk away from a house than the banks foreclosing
I do, too. I don’t think that the banks have much power in such a situation.
I also think that the US government will have a terrible time if it needs to bail out all of these banks, simultaneously.
There is a lot of other debt that is in terrible shape. We have way too much office real estate, for example.
Governments can claim to back lots of debt, but as a practical matter, all they can attempt to do is print more money. If they are successful, they will get hyperinflation. Or they could collapse first, and get deflation.
He’s got an Australian perspective; our laws differ but they actually haven’t been put to test yet (not since the Great Depression).
Interesting point.
“Interesting point.”
True!
“I missed the sail powered boat part. Sounds like a great publicity stunt”
It is, of course. But serious engineering and economic analysis has gone into sail powered cargo boats.
The economics for a no crew cargo ship are at least interesting. Much depends on how long and how much variation the shipper can tolerate.
High value cargo in a hurry goes by air.
If you watch rail traffic you can see the fast shipments go around the bulk grain and alcohol shipments.
Binance, on orders from Israel, has seized all Palestinian crypto accounts.
So much for the security of crypto accounts.
“So much for the security of crypto accounts.”
I have not paid much attention to crypto, but I was around when it was being discussed before the first bitcoin was mined.
The design was such that you did not need central organizations or banks.
I have a solution for parents that have kids that will not have grand kids.
It is my understanding that we can make sperm cells from skin cells and we can make egg cells from skin cells. So do that with sample from the uninterested young couple. Then IVF, then surrogate to carry to term. Then hired child care to raise grand kid.
I am afraid the child would not turn out very well in such a situation. Having a stable family situation is a great bonus for a child.
There are many grandparents who raise grandchildren. If the grandparents raise the child, with a little assistance from hired child care, it might sort of work.
I don’t know how well making sperm cells and egg cells really works, either. I don’t think I would want to be the one to test it.
It would seem like the grandparents could use their own skin cells to produce more children through surrogates, if they were beyond childbearing age. What is the real point in all of this?
“What is the real point in all of this?”
I don’t know…. but I can guess.
People have a strong instinct to trick nature.
If nature has selected against someone to pass on his genes, he needs to accept nature’s judgement.
=
You’ll remember our commenter Alice-through-the-looking-glass, who always used to propagandise on behalf of the Scottish National Party until their scandals started piling up. Well, now there are more coming for the SNP.
Police ‘investigate civil servant’ over testimony to Alex Salmond inquiry
https://archive.ph/SvzrX
> Point of No Return in Middle East & Ukraine – John Mearsheimer, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen
Alexander: Ukraine’s attempt to expand the war by invading Russia is a massive gamble. Ukraine is already overextended. Perhaps they think that they can leverage this attack to get America to expand its role.
John Mearsheimer: This is a war of attrition. Invading Russia makes no sense whatsoever. Casualty exchange rate was adverse on Eastern Front. Will get worse after lose some of the Ukrainian soldiers. Won’t do well in Russia, either. Lose even more than would otherwise because they are now out in the open. Russian lost few soldiers in comparison.
And of course, this will get Russia angry. Russia will not tolerate this.
At this point Nato Countries are the only elements that allow and support Ukraine to wage war against Russia, being Ukraine an entity which is by now in complete bankrupt and cannot sustain itself.
It is a situation like if Mexico, in a case of complete bankrupt, were sustained financially and for weapons and ammunitions point of view, used to invade Texas, by the side of China or of Russia.
American people wouldn’t like that situation and would remember it for long…
Russia fights very good on its own soil not so good on invading. Never has never will
oops, chassis not chasse.
Dennis L.
Urban planners in Ancient City of Rome dealt with issues better than modern, so much for “advancement”, hun Klummie?
In one of the volumes—Space, Movement and the Economy in Roman Cities in Italy and Beyond—Andrew Wallace-Hadrill, Professor of Roman Studies and Director of Research in the Faculty of Classics at the University of Cambridge, discusses how through the use of wide, all-weather streets and the clearance of rubbish as well as the prevention of hawking, the “Roman municipal authorities devoted considerable attention to ensuring smooth traffic flow in their cities.”
However, he shows, there was also a great deal of attention devoted to “impediments to movement” in the Roman street system.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2024/08/28/how-ancient-rome-restricted-wheeled-traffic-and-why-cargobikes-are-best-for-todays-cities/
…..Wheeled traffic, says Wallace-Hadrill, was discouraged in Roman cities—or at least “channeled”— to allow “neighborhoods some peace and quiet.”
Modern critics of motor traffic restriction measures ask the same question as Wallace-Hadrill: “how do you get goods delivery vehicles to the commercial outlets in the center of town?”
“It is at this point,” argues the Cambridge University academic, “that we have to wean ourselves of the modern assumption that wheeled traffic is essential for access.”
He argues that goods would have been offloaded from wheeled carts and carried through city streets by porters and by mules.
“Mules,” he says, could carry a surprisingly large amount of cargo and “could negotiate obstacles designed to block off wheeled vehicles.”
A bit like today’s human-powered cargo bikes, then.
When in Rome …
ive walked down a few roman streets
i dont recall any wide ones.
where traffic is at a walking pace, streets tend to be narrow, congested and full of filth–i doubt if rome was any different
(garde de l’eau)
Suppose not too many elephant pets to go out for a walk in those times by the upper crust
I imagine having a lot of animals for delivery would add to the filth problem with the streets.
I saw this film one time…a hidden gem
Quackser Fortune Has a Cousin in the Bronx” (1970) offers a distinctive cinematic experience, marked by the unexpected yet compelling performance of Gene Wilder as the titular character. Departing from his familiar collaborations with Mel Brooks, Wilder embodies Quackser, an independent and seemingly simple-minded individual within a working-class Dublin milieu. Surprisingly adept in this departure from comedic roles, Wilder seamlessly adopts the working-class Dublin dialect, demonstrating an unexpected range that captivates the audience.
The film navigates Quackser’s unconventional career choice-trailing horse-drawn delivery wagons, collecting and reselling street-horse manure as fertilizer. Despite the unorthodox nature of his occupation, Quackser’s genuine affection for his job resonates, endearing him to the city and its denizens. The portrayal of Dublin’s streets and locales from a bygone era serves as a poignant reminder of the passage of time, earning the film an additional point for its nostalgic cinematography.
Margot Kidder, in her pre-Lois Lane days, delivers a convincing performance as the adventurous American college student who entangles herself in Quackser’s life. The complex dynamic between the two characters unfolds gradually, with Kidder’s portrayal offering depth to her character’s simultaneous intrigue and disregard for Quackser. The exploration of their unconventional relationship adds an intriguing layer to the narrative.
While the film may not achieve widespread acclaim, its unique premise, Wilder’s commendable performance, and the evocative cinematography make it a worthwhile watch. “Quackser Fortune Has a Cousin in the Bronx” earns a modest but respectable rating of 6/10, with an extra point granted for its evocative portrayal of Dublin in an era long past.
I suppose there were professional manure collectors in Ancient Rome that made a career living as such…
What do organic gardeners call it …black gold
I looked it up and it can be viewed on YouTube..
Here is a short clip of it with Gene Wilder and Margot Kidder collecting manure
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UFLzshUZXZM&pp=ygUqUXVhY2tzZXIgRm9ydHVuZSBIYXMgYSBDb3VzaW4gaW4gdGhlIEJyb254
Diesel is the hemoglobin of the economy. Europe is on life-support.
https://x.com/aeberman12/status/1829213169903972641/photo/1
Europe is using even less diesel than during 2020. Hard to run much of an economy on so little diesel.
“Energy Cost: Electric locomotives are generally more energy-efficient and cost-effective to run compared to diesel-electric locomotives. The higher efficiency of electric locomotives means less energy is wasted, leading to lower operational costs.” Copilot
Variable costs would appear lower, capital costs of wires, substations would appear higher, question of life time of electrical system.
As diesel becomes more expensive, expect electrical systems, we had them in street cars and that was in part to use excess energy when people were commuting and not at work.
Problem is Cu, that is hard to mine and becoming an issue.
Joking, I suppose we could use some of the cubic mile of Pt.
Seriously, with Pt, solar energy, H as a storage pathway, we could do nicely with rail transportation.
We are going to change whether convenient or not; we will need to use existing engineering until Star Trek teleportation is engineered well.
Dennis L.
dennis
do you put a pea sized block of pt under your mattress at night–to remind you of its all powerful status in a affiars of humankind?
So glad I own one ounce of Pt among the lead in my bugout stash…
Now I can sleep soundly at night and not think about space mining and or cryptocurrency
Pb at your bugout stash???? It should be at home.
Depending on situation which I can not predict when will happen, if ever, I keep 3 different levels of Pb delivery at my bedside: 38 spec revolver if I have zero warning, Glock 17 with 2 extra 17 round mags in the harness if they are downstairs, and an MAK 90 with 2 x 30 round mags, if they are outside and trying to break in, plus a few fire extinguishers and heavier firepower if things really get out of hand. Hate to say it, but even worse, it won’t be just one intruder. It will be a gang.
You mean something like this?
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/living-third-world-armed-venezuelan-gang-members-roam-colorado-apartment-building
that looks and sounds like a trump promotion video
Electrical trains don’t work in many locations, I understand. They cannot pull heavy loads up big hills.
You also have to keep the electricity supply available. This tends to be more of a problem than most people assume. And electricity prices seem to be going up as much or more than oil prices.
This kind of question is something that Co-Pilot gives misleading answers to.
Paragraph I.
The Milwaukee road used electrical trains in the mountains in part to avoid smoke issues in tunnels. Electrical motors have no issues with torque, Elon’s cars are very fast off the line.
“Overall, while there are challenges, electric trains are well-suited for mountainous regions due to their powerful motors, efficient energy use, and advanced infrastructure adaptations.”
The following is what I have generally understood.
“Economic Decisions: Despite studies showing the economic benefits of electric operation over steam and diesel, the railroad decided to phase out electric operations in June 1974. This decision was made during an oil embargo, which ironically made diesel operations more expensive2.
Asset Liquidation: The company was more interested in selling off its electrification assets rather than renewing them. This was part of a broader strategy to cut costs and manage its financial crisis2.
Operational Costs: Maintaining the electrified infrastructure in the mountainous regions was particularly costly. The rugged terrain required significant investment in infrastructure, which the financially struggling company could not afford3
Both quotes Copilot.
A corollary would be generating electricity from diesel is more expensive than CH4 or coal in stationary power stations. The difference on a railroad is hours of usage, cost of capital. This is a guess. A diesel locomotive is a diesel-electric locomotive; this is done to mainly avoid transmission issues from chasse to trucks as well as electricity being simpler to regulate. Musk and Tesla again, much simpler mechanicals.
The limiting factor may well be Cu.
Starship is the answer, the only engineering answer we currently have. Pt is more of the answer in that it mostly avoids global warming issues if associated with ambient sunlight.
Dennis L.
Keeping electricity going is a big issue however. Europe is reaching limits with all of its added intermittent electricity. Intermittent electricity in the US seems to be contributing to more long outages and less spare capacity.
Adding electric trains would be at least as challenging as adding electric cars. We would have to depend on other countries to make the electric trains for us. This would take considerable energy. We would have to depend on these other countries to make spare parts, as well. This would not be sustainable for long.
thats ridiculous
even the covidramatist in chief himself wouldnt have said that, when he told us here on ofw there were piles of dead bodies in the streets back in 2021
Europe can’t last very long, and the slowing down of diesel consumption is the best indicator of the slowdown of the industrial activity of the continent. Household and industrial plants are suffering from the very high price of energy. Just for instance, in Italy, the last electricity bills for homes are in the range of 0,40 €/kWh in the south and around 0,50 €/kWh in the north of the country. Before the Ukraine war prices were around 18/20 cents per kWh. For industrial consumption the numbers are much lower but, in general, we are talking 2-3 times the price before the war.
I got curious about what it costs here. My last bill has 177 kWh which cost 3.47 rubles/kWh. Right now is 100 rubles per euro.
Do people still use coins in Russia, drb753, or only banknotes?
Extremely interesting drb753, thank you. And what about the prices of natural gas for heating?
that’s about a seventh of the price i pay for electricity in the EU.
is that all the month or for three months does that sounds pretty good 600 rubles or six euros that’s too cheap
July 2024. I have a large freezer, electrical cooking, and I think the office (across the village street) is also included.
coins below 10 rubles. Notes above. 10 rubles is most commonly coins but there are some notes. Cash is still king. I can set up business accounts until I am blue in the face, but then everyone wants cash. In regard to gas I do not know. My village will get it in 2026. I heat with wood, and when I am away, electrical (I heat only the part that has water pipes). One year firewood supply costs 19,000 (I paid 16,000 last year but it was a bit less, so inflation is there), plus several man hours to stack it.
Here we have a perfect example of the “superior” GDP of the US. A home owner there will pay $200-400 for a month of electricity versus drb’s 10 Euros or so.
In this case the US can boast that it has the larger GDP since the electric bill transaction will contribute to the overall GDP number. I would flip it around and say that drb has those extra funds to purchase something more in the lower cost Russian economy.
Excuses for poor performance — it is never energy .
”There’s a time-honored tradition among US corporate chieftans of blaming a looming election for their troubles. But in 2024, things have appeared to reach a new level.
Executives are bringing up elections in earnings calls “earlier and more abruptly” than in past election cycles, according to analysis by Goldman Sachs. Almost one in five earnings calls mentioned “election” in the second quarter, the Wall Street bank found. That’s more than 5 percentage points higher than in the same period of 2020 and 2016, according to Goldman.
Some examples:
Michigan-based Alta Equipment CEO Ryan Greenawalt cited customers of the heavy equipment retailer and servicer saying, “I’m going to keep my older piece of equipment until after the election, when I know more about tax, future tax ramifications of buying capital equipment.”
Applied Industrial Technologies of Ohio, which designs and distributes engineering products, said the demand backdrop is “choppy” thanks in part to what CEO Neil Schrimsher said was “uncertainty around the upcoming US election.”
Ryan McMonagle, CEO of Missouri-based Custom Truck, said some smaller contractors the truck and heavy-equipment firm service are “just waiting on some certainty around the election.”
A recent survey of Texas manufacturers by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas similarly featured several colorful comments, anonymously attributed, about the election.
“It’s like, we all know the world will continue regardless of who wins, but we’re all sitting on our hands until a winner is announced,” said one machine manufacturer.
The election is having an impact in other ways, too, as this newsletter noted last week, with imports surging in part thanks to preparing for the risk of higher tariffs when a new administration takes over in 2025.
As for capital spending, the likelihood is some negative impact in the run-up to voting day, which is then made up for afterwards, according to Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius.
“A temporary headwind” to capital spending is what’s likely, the Goldman team wrote.
Firms that mentioned election uncertainty in their second-quarter earnings calls saw capital expenses growth that was slower than firms that didn’t. The election worriers should start boosting their spending at an outsize clip once a winner is declared, the bank said.
The Best of Bloomberg Economics
India’s rapid growth is set to moderate as consumers turn wary.
The Chinese currency hit the strongest level in more than a year .
UK house prices unexpectedly fell in August.
Australian retail sales stagnated as elevated rates bite for consumers.
Euro-area inflation plunged to the lowest level since mid-2021. The ECB should proceed cautiously with rate cuts, according to an Executive Board member.
Tokyo inflation topped expectations, supporting the case for the Bank of Japan to hike.
Bloomberg news
I guess any excuse is a good excuse:
“Firms that mentioned election uncertainty in their second-quarter earnings calls saw capital expenses growth that was slower than firms that didn’t. The election worriers should start boosting their spending at an outsize clip once a winner is declared, the bank said.”
A comment I wrote might post twice. Please delete the duplicate.
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USA was given the stewardship of the earth. Why, I won’t ask.
However, it cannot be denied that USA has failed miserably on that task.
Why? A million causes might be cited, but I won’t spend time on it.
But , no matter what some people who are still hopeful or delusional, might think the game is over. We can’t win; all we can do is slower the decline so enough knowledge is preserved for whatever might come hundreds of years later.
Too much resources were wasted to better the lot of lives who should have remained barefoot. A very foolish, do-goodism for which USA has a lot of responsibility on it.
Herbie Hoover became famous for feeding the Russians during the Bolshevik Civil War. He did something unnecessary ,since the lives saved became either good soldiers for Stalin or was killed by the Georgian. If Hoover screwed up, that would have been much better for humanity.
Basically everything USA has touched is becoming a huge heap of manure. For example USA should not have done anything as Holland was within a spade of subduing the rebels in Dutch East Indies, an entity which existed from at least 1600, before the foundation of Jamestown. USA screwed Holland and created a 200 million population burden just north of Australia, a very foolish thing.
And all these humanitarian aid to countries few Americans had heard about just created 6 billion unnecessary humanoids .
USA is responsible for all these screwups, created by the do-gooders.
the usa was not given stewardship of the earth
anymore that the uk was 200 years earlier.
or Rome 2000 years before that.
cheap surplus energy allowed them to grab it and hold it for a short time, under the delusion that it was ”forever”.
maganuts remain convinced that it is forever.
(Bush 1–the American way of life is non negotiable)
its going to be a very unpleasant bit of unlearning
Perhaps some people would associate stewardship of the earth with reserve currency and world hegemony (or at least regional hegemony).
The US has been given the leadership in debt creation. Indirectly, this helps pull the economy forward. It also wipes out other species at the same time.
stewerdship of the earth, from historical observation, seem to involve wiping out indigenous peples, before we get to the money part—which usually involves loot
As the appropriation of all remaining resources by those who have ability takes places, expect to see large scale humanitarian tragedies.
The people of Dublin during 1845 did NOT give a crap about the millions of deaths. Even in 1914, just before the start of the Great War, James Joyce did NOT mention the famine. For him, it happened in some other world he would rather not associate with. (A passing character, indicated as somewhat insane, mentions it once in Ulysses. That is the entire mention of the famine in Joyce’s entire opus.)
The name Joyce originates from the Normans (Iodoc in Breton), which means James Joyce, who never really identified with a domination although having attended a Catholic school, had his sympathies with the Normans and he chose to live away from Ireland after the latter’s independence.
Today’s winners will not give a crap as billions will be simply eliminated.
It is just a fact of life. Those who are able destroy those who are not able. Social Darwinism, thought to be dead on 1945, will return with a big payback.
If those who still think some parts of Civilization can be saved win, which I think will happen , a very repressive, draconian control of resources , which will be denied to peoples not considered to be worthy enough to be maintained, will take place.
It won’t be pretty, but it will beat a free-for-all chaos like Russia in 1918-22. Some people might think the latter is preferable, and I suggest these people to move to Venezuela to experience it themselves.
Lives not worth maintaining lived too luxuriously compared to their value. That will reverse , very, very violently.
CDC: 9 people have dropped dead from listeria outbreak in frankenmeat!
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4853661-cdc-listeria-outbreak-deli-meat-death-toll/
could it be that the covid-19 jab is responsible for these deaths if the jabs caused a weakened immune system and this could be the result some of the people that received jabs and now are suffering from weakened immune systems.
“could it be that the covid-19 jab is responsible”
Just no. listeria has been killing people for decades.
that’s good news thank you sir
Nowhere does it say that it is ‘strange” meat. Cured meats made with pig heads are very old in fact.
“pig heads are very old in fact.”
True, but in this case, “Boar’s Head” is a brand name for an expensive ham.
According to the Mayo Clinic (Do they really drip-feed mayo into their patients?):
“Listeria infection is a foodborne bacterial illness that can be very serious for pregnant women, people older than 65 and people with weakened immune systems. It’s most commonly caused by eating improperly processed deli meats and unpasteurized milk products.
“Healthy people rarely become ill from listeria infection, but the disease can be fatal to unborn babies, newborns and people with weakened immune systems. Prompt antibiotic treatment can help curb the effects of listeria infection.
“Listeria bacteria can survive refrigeration and even freezing. So people who are at higher risk of serious infections should avoid eating the types of food most likely to contain listeria bacteria.”
The Mayo article also lists the symptoms.
“If you develop a listeria infection, you might have:
Fever
Chills
Muscle aches
Nausea
Diarrhea
Symptoms might begin a few days after you’ve eaten contaminated food, but it can take 30 days or more before the first signs and symptoms of infection begin.
If the listeria infection spreads to your nervous system, signs and symptoms can include:
Headache
Stiff neck
Confusion or changes in alertness
Loss of balance
Convulsions”
I’ve been looking for the ages of the people affected by this outbreak. One article told me:
“Of the 57 case-patients, 17 live in New York state, 8 live in Maryland, and 5 live in New Jersey. In total 18 states have reported cases. The age range of patients is 32 to 95 years.
“Of 57 people with information available, all 57 have been hospitalized. One person got sick during their pregnancy and remained pregnant after recovering,” the CDC said.
“Of the nine deaths reported, Illinois, New Jersey, Virginia, Florida, Tennessee, New Mexico, New York, have each recorded one fatality, while two people have died in South Carolina.
“During epidemiologic interviews 93% of 44 participants reported eating deli meats before falling ill. Of the 41 people who said they ate liverwurst, 25 (61%) reported deli-sliced liverwurst before getting sick, and 19 (46%) reported Boar’s Head brand.”
Weakened immune systems seem to be a major issue in these deaths. This is an issue with all of the recent immunizations.
Paul-Frederik Bach is a retired engineer who has worked on the electrical grid in Denmark. He writes articles about once a month on his website.
http://pfbach.dk
His analysis of August 19, 2024 is titled:
“Increasing overflow problems. Wind and solar power must be obliged to downregulate.”
Off to the side, he has a sign, “Overflow from solar power is now a European
problem.”
He links to an analysis he has done. His conclusion is that making energy demand flexible doesn’t really work. Wind and solar output needs to be cut back to make it fit with the quantity that is needed. He says:
He has several prior analyses available as well. The one from June 5, 2024, is titled,
“Germany’s future power system looks like an operational nightmare.”
All of Bach’s analyses are reached from the same link: http://pfbach.dk
The idea wind and solar can power 100 percent of power demand when it is windy and sunny, but power 5 percent when it is cloudy and windless is B.S. for the other providers in the power grid. You end up bankrupting the fossil fuel and nuclear providers telling them they can only sell power when the windless and cloudy days. You will end up having to give everyone so much subsidy, you will bankrupt the state. I consider myself a Democrat in most ways, but this demonizing of fossil fuels by the left is a good way of getting Republicans elected.
I am afraid you are right. Adding wind and solar is working very badly.
Wait what about drill baby drill!! We are soon to hear that rhetoric! In fact they are already telling me that! Trump has already said that he is going to make energy so cheap and beautiful 🤩… I tried explaining to one of the trumpers but you can’t argue with stupid
Sam , Mr Shellman on the subject . Enjoy .
https://www.oilystuff.com/forumstuff/forum-stuff/slashing-gasoline-prices-by-half-with-u-s-shale-oil
Thanks I am very familiar with Mr. Shellman!
If you cut the price of oil in half, you would bankrupt the Saudis and other gulf monarchies. You would end up having wild gyrations in the price of oil, then little oil at all.
Clearly, oil prices are not coming down by half. No producer has the motivation to get oil prices that low. Mike Shellman does a good job on the issue.
I like that saying you can’t argue with stupid or Dumb and Dumber
“Increasing overflow problems”
What is needed is variable loads that do something useful. Making hydrogen with electrolysis does not work because the equipment is to expensive. A low capital cost plant that makes something out of the excess power is what I have proposed.
Well, a cubic mile of Pt would solve that problem.
Agree with the second sentence, the problem is capital costs often need to work 24/7 to get a return on capital.
So, back to the cubic mile, it would be a good starting point.
Dennis L.
“a cubic mile of Pt would solve that problem. ”
True. The only problem is you would have to refine a million cubic miles of asteroid metal to get that since is runs about one part per million.
Okay,
Space is energy rich, space is frictionless, space has no pollution problems.
Self replicating devices, solar powered, in space.
It is terrifically wasteful, so was blowing up a star to make Pt in the first place.
Space is not efficient, it certainly does not use energy efficiently, it just works.
We have go with something which works; we have or are close to having the engineering with Starship.
TINA
Dennis L.
We know how to separate the platinum from the waste here on Earth, via processes that use lots of liquid water and gravity, the floatation process, and it uses fossil fuels in the xanthates that float the metals.
If you can work out how to get water to flow at -200 degrees and how to create artificial gravity in the asteroid belt, how to get all the equipment there, operate it with weak sunshine (nuclear?), all cheaply, after finding any slightly higher grades which would take years of exploration, and large enough to process many millions of tonnes of ore daily, you could be onto something.
Until then, working on your time machine is probably a more likely scenario, to have a positive outcome…
“in the asteroid belt, ”
Platinum in the asteroid belt is disbursed in iron and nickel. I have given some thought as to how to get it out. The process would not be much like on Earth, because we don’t have giant anvils as sources.
You are right about needing power, but concentrating sunlight is not very expensive in space. Gravity too might be essential. We know how to do that. Correct on it being a huge, expensive project. You might note that there are several companies working on such a project now. I don’t think they will fair better than the previous two that went out of business, but eventually I expect it to happen.
Keith … “but concentrating sunlight is not very expensive in space”.
It’s a lot weaker in the asteroid belt than locally near Earth/Moon. Also we use liquid water as the carrier of the chemicals to separate metals from the waste rock, with the metals floating to the top of the liquid in bubbles, hence the need for gravity.
None of these processes of mining are close to possible in cold, distant space, when it comes to mining minor quantities of wanted metals in the ppm range.
Every sci-fi with ‘space mining’ is total junk.
It’s the relationship of gravity, density of water, ability to create bubbles that can hold small particles of metals and then float, while waste does not get accepted in the bubbles and therefore sinks in the water that allows mining of ppm materials here on Earth.
The only other method of separation we have also uses acids to dissolve metals and needs gravity and water in liquid form to carry the acid. In this case the metals attach to the acid and sink with the liquid collected.
It’s all fantasy that’s not close to possible, despite human imagination.
Read https://htyp.org/Mining_Asteroids There are at least two methods I know for sorting precious metal out of asteroid metal. Zone melting it only mentioned, the Mond process is discussed in detail. Neither of them need liquid water.
Incidentally, I know flotation well, worked installing computer in a plant where 30 ball mills made fine sand that was run though flotation cells to get the copper sulfide out.
That’s mostly obsolete, they heap leach it now.
Keith, they use heap leaching on oxidised ores, while we still get around 90% of base metals from floatation of sulphides.
How does the Mond process help gain Platinum, when it’s Nickel specific??
How does Zone refining help in the slightest when dealing with elements in the ppm range your trying to collect??
BTW ” Large-scale purification of metals (of the order of tons per day) is not likely to be practical because of the excessive loss of heat due to high thermal conductivity.”
Has anyone ever tried to do any zone refining on even a tiny scale in space?? Wont the thermal variation between the inside and outside of whatever container lose too much heat to space?
You are talking refining methods used on Earth to get rid of some minor impurities from a metal, it’s not a process to gain the initial metal of high grade with some minor impurities from ppm range in asteroids…
It’s all in the ‘never will happen category’, because we will not have the energy in a few years to even go to space once oil production starts declining at an accelerating rate.
“How does the Mond process help gain Platinum, when it’s Nickel specific??”
It is not nickel specific. Dissolves iron as well. What is left is mostly cobalt. It is the first step in extracting precious metals from a metal asteroid.
“How does Zone refining help in the slightest when dealing with elements in the ppm range your trying to collect??”
There is a detailed technical description in The Pirates Of Rosinante
by Alexis A. Gilliland https://www.amazon.com/dp/B09W9333TM. Again, it is only the first step.
“BTW ” Large-scale purification of metals (of the order of tons per day) is not likely to be practical because of the excessive loss of heat due to high thermal conductivity.
The proposed processing of 1986 DA is 2.5 million tons per day.
“Has anyone ever tried to do any zone refining on even a tiny scale in space??”
Not that I know about. However, it should be *much* easier. Only a small part of the bar is liquid at any time and surface tension should be plenty to keep it in place in zero g.
” Wont the thermal variation between the inside and outside of whatever container lose too much heat to space?”
No container. And simple foil radiation shields keep the heat in. Discussed in detail in the above ref. Incidentally, Gilliland was a chemist at the National Bureau of Standards. His technical details are meticulous and I heard that he had several engineers going over his work.
“You are talking refining methods used on Earth to get rid of some minor impurities from a metal, it’s not a process to gain the initial metal of high grade with some minor impurities from ppm range in asteroids…”
What we would be mining in space is already reduced metal. What we are after is minor impurities such as gold. Pulling out iron, nickel and cobalt increases the concentration of valuable stuff by about 100.
“It’s all in the ‘never will happen category’, because we will not have the energy in a few years to even go to space once oil production starts declining at an accelerating rate.”
You might be right. However, you might look into nanotechnology. A coke can volume of nanotech seed soft landed on the moon is enough to industrialize the whole thing.
I don’t know if we will ever go into space for solar energy, but if we do, the energy economics is excellent. A power satellite will return the energy needed to put it in space in a little over two months. I went through the math here a few months ago, but if someone wants it, I can post it again.
dennis
couldnt you start with a cubic yard and work your way up?
“with a cubic yard”
No. Economy of scale problems keep you from starting small.
Same problems as power satellites.
Ammonia? Methanol?
I don’t know the capital cost. The usefulness of the output is also important.
“Ammonia? Methanol?”
Both require hydrogen. I think a methanol plant is less expensive than an ammonia plant, but I would have to look it up.
If you are in a place where you have an empty gas field nearby, the hydrogen production can run intermittently when there is excess power and the methanol or ammonia plant can run 24/7.
Keith are you aware of the Haru Oni plant in southern Chile?
It’s rapidly proving that synthetic fuel is a non starter with a 1.66% process efficiency, from possibly the best wind resource in the world at Tierra Del Fuego.
Once you count capital energy input cost, operating and maintenance energy input costs, it’s highly likely to be a large net energy user.
I don’t know the number of workers at the plant, that’s been kept a secret, but assuming the cars there in some of the photos are an accurate representation, then the fuel used to get to work and back, to the nearest town 35km away, then the workers probably use the equivalent of the fuel created just getting to work and back.
The first ‘commercial’ (sic) shipment taking 8 months to accumulate after commercial production was declared, was just 24,600 litres of synthetic fuel.
Hideaway, do you have the source of the 1,66% efficiency of the Haru Oni plant? Thanks.
“Keith are you aware of the Haru Oni plant in southern Chile?”
Yes, known about it for years. It is mostly a PR stunt.
“It’s rapidly proving that synthetic fuel is a non starter with a 1.66% process efficiency,”
Cost is more important than efficiency. Hydropower is much less efficient measured from the sunlight that evaporates water, but hydro is the lowest cost energy source we have.
Still, that sounds really low. Got a pointer to an analysis?
” from possibly the best wind resource in the world at Tierra Del Fuego.
Once you count capital energy input cost, operating and maintenance energy input costs, it’s highly likely to be a large net energy user.”
For what I was talking about it depends on the cost of the hydrogen generators. In the case I have been considering, the energy cost is zero.
“I don’t know the number of workers at the plant, that’s been kept a secret, but assuming the cars there in some of the photos are an accurate representation, then the fuel used to get to work and back, to the nearest town 35km away, then the workers probably use the equivalent of the fuel created just getting to work and back.
“The first ‘commercial’ (sic) shipment taking 8 months to accumulate after commercial production was declared, was just 24,600 litres of synthetic fuel.
The plant in Qatar I use as an example makes 34,000 bbl of fuel a day.
Simple calculation.. 3.4Mw wind turbine 70% capacity factor = 20,848.8MWh of energy input from wind turbine over 1 year.
24,600 litres of fuel in 8 months = ~36,937 litres of synthetic fuel.
At 9.5KWh/litre = 352.9Mwh of energy in fuel.
Equals 1.69% efficiency.
I was 0.03% from memory.
Forget all the BS they talk about of making lots of methanol as well, they use the methanol to make the synthetic fuel, and sell none of it. Only output ever planned was the synthetic fuel. Original design was only meant to produce 130,000 litres a year of synthetic fuel. Obviously the intermittency is costing them a lot, plus most processes end up being less efficient than theoretical. I’d suggest the cold wind is taking a lot more heat away from processes than planned, also costing them energy.
“Equals 1.69% efficiency.”
I would be hard put to design a process that bad.
Making hydrogen from water is about 80% efficient. You lose half the hydrogen making CO2 into CO. The F/T process is around 75% efficient, so I would expect ~30% of the electrical input to show up in the fuel.
Getting 1.7% is just awful.
Calling it a PR stunt was very accurate and kind, I’d call it a scam….
Yet the company behind it keeps gaining funds from govt around the world and the odd company, to pursue building more of it, which tells me govts are aware of the game extend, pretend and distract…
“I’d call it a scam….”
Small scale things, this one is just larger than bench scale, are not expected to make money. Still, it is large enough that I am surprised at how low the efficiency is. It’s about ten times lower than I would expect from the chemistry.
Perhaps making liquid fuels using wind or solar power is more elusive than people had hoped.
“Perhaps making liquid fuels using wind or solar power is more elusive than people had hoped.”
Or maybe the cause is incompetent engineering and management.
The 34,000 bbl/day Sasol plant I often cite cost a billion to construct. The next plant was 3 times larger, and cost more than ten times as much. Competence makes a huge difference. AI may help.
I currently produce distilled water.
https://www.thecollegefix.com/caltech-boasts-diversity-efforts-result-in-50-percent-female-class/
This site is run by a woman so she might not be happy to see this but the truth is caltech, the supposed cutting edge of science and tech,is more concerned about appearance than actually teaching future talents.
If the jobs for graduates in the STEM fields are really going to China and other countries, maybe it doesn’t matter what kind of students go STEM universities in the US. There won’t be many jobs in these fields here.
Guess:
Much of technology is static, only have familiarity with electronics. What can be done with a two year education is incredible, it would be impossible to imagine what can be done routinely now with even five years ago.
Circuits can be analyzed with multisim, no wiring, Copilot can seemingly design them; going to try that this next school year.
Mentioned earlier one of my instructors stated many major EE students were not familiar with real world applications.
The math is approachable now for many, the circuits can be tried out on a computer, Copilot can look at some of it(have tried beginning) and make suggestions.
Doing cutting edge research may now be reserved for all but the very brightest in the world.
I admit I am only a beginner and I have great envy for incredible intelligence; much of the knowledge is now embedded in the chips.
Again, this is a guess, film at eleven.
Dennis L.
“real world applications”
I’d call it ‘Hammertime’. The exponential function through the eyes of the incapable.
“real world applications”
Long ago, late 60s I was working and near to the end of my engineering degree. A work project was to lash up a 20 kW 400 Hz aircraft generator to a VW engine. A local machine shop made the physical parts to connect the two. I was casting around for a speed control mechanism. At the time I was taking a course on control theory. I asked the professor about my control problem and he dismissed it as a “real world problem” and they didn’t deal with such.
I was considerably annoyed by his answer. Eventually a friend of mine suggested a phase shift network (can still remember, it used half Henry inductors and half micro farad capacitors). It shifted the phase by 180 deg at 400 Hz. Used a little 2 phase motor, power on one set of winding, phase shifted on the other, to control the throttle. It worked fine and involved no active control elements at all.
Asian Zombies cannot create anything
This is a ridiculous statement. A majority of technical research papers are now authored by Asians, most in Asia. They dominate the journals. They are leaving us in the dust.
It is an old racist trope….”they just steal everything from us…they don’t invent anything original” It is rubbish.
They are inventing lots of things.
Asians are inventing lots of things.
Zombies not so many.
Never saw this one coming.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7m5Z6FuPbk
Price discovery is gone from us, huge change for farmers, huge change for trading houses.
Change for the advisors, they no longer have good information. Huge change for Chicago, major grain trading houses. Major changes for US banks, going digital, instantaneous, no/miniscule trading costs.
He mentions input costs, think margins; yup, margins are thin. US is supposed to be the bread basket to the world, we are now importing more than exporting. Crazy.
Deere is moving off the farm, well out of IA for example.
I was thinking high tech, not thinking grains, dirt. Oops.
Now, could all this be related to Ukraine? Nah, that would be too simple. Farming may be a two for, raise wheat and plough up steel from expended US munitions. Sell steel on the scrap market. Crazy. A bit of humor, this could be an explosive development if one “discovered” an unexploded 155mm shell.
I repeat, I never saw the effect of a non US dollar effect on farming. This may well be where bit coin gains traction, money backed up by a commodity on a huge scale with visible prices to those in the game. Bit coin becomes a source of exchange without the ability of governments to siphon off a percentage with inflation.
So, inflation/deflation?
Dennis L.
Your champion will drive your former god, along with most people who can actually produce something , out of USA and will make it like ZImbabwe.
Thoughts from the group on this one.
The size of the ag market, the instant availability of prices to Brics and money exchange in bit coin. This seems to work and avoid all the problems with backing with gold/silver. Could be just the reverse, gold/silver are priced to bit coin. Now that is a revolting development.
This could be huge, is huge and was obvious. Totally didn’t see that one.
Dennis L.
I think that the self-organizing system may be pushing the economy in the direction of the US not growing as much grain as it has in the past, in part because there is not enough diesel fuel/jet fuel/bunker fuel to continue as in the past.
When costs are displayed for food items, I presume they are displayed without shipping costs (including refrigeration, if necessary). I know with coal prices, the cost of oil to ship the coal can be substantial. I would expect the same to be true for food products. Finding a nearer supplier might help a lot with respect to shipping costs. The self-organizing system is pushing all of the participants toward cutting down on long distance travel for food.
In the US, a lot of the grain is grown for animal feed or for feeding to private passenger automobiles, as ethanol. Both of these are pretty inefficient uses for the grain.
If quite a few people are getting poorer, their ability to buy meat will go down. This will leave a lot of unneeded animal feed. I wonder if part of the low grain demand problem is reduced demand for animal feed within the US.
If ethanol is not subsidized or mandated, its cost per mile of driving range tends to be higher than that for gasoline, also. Ethanol needs to be shipped by truck. I would expect that these trucks use diesel. Gasoline shipment is mostly by pipeline, eliminating most of the diesel requirement.
Having our current dollar-base financial system for buying food commodities adds to the costs and hassles. It is no wonder that other countries are looking for nearer suppliers, especially if they can cut financial costs as well.
Bit of trivia, starting to like MSOE more and more.
https://www.msoe.edu/academics/undergraduate-degrees/mathematics/actuarial-science/
All girls in the photo, can they handle the risks? That is a bit of humor for those who missed it.
First time I have seen a school teach actuarial science, usual calc, linear algebra and probability/statistics.
I know, I expect a tomorrow, different, but a tomorrow.
Dennis L.
There are two kinds of actuaries: Life and Casualty, at least in the US. The two are more combined in some other countries. My training is as a casualty actuary. Certification for both groups is by taking a series of about 10 exams, typically over a period of years.There tend to be a lot more life insurance (and pension) actuaries than casualty actuaries.
The SOA, which is what is advertised here, is the life insurance group. Historically, the first few exams have been the same for both life and casualty. So a person, taking these classes, might be prepared to take a few of the beginning exams.
Actuaries rarely come from Ivy League schools. I think of actuaries getting their degrees from state colleges or universities–schools that are interested in teaching practical skills, rather than providing an impressive resume.
I am seeing the practical close up. Saw it in dental school, Maquette was very hands on; wonderful learning experience.
Dennis L.
Report on first week of CC electronic classes:
Classes are full, the schedule for “real” students is heavy, homework is real, labs are real, cooperation is encouraged. Mention is made of the importance of the kids socializing especially when recruiters are present(these are many times kids just out of high school). The teachers see it as their “job” to help the students learn, succeed. Mention is made of tutors for those who have issues, teachers keep notebooks on students as well as grades so they don’t get lost. Kids are run through mock job interviews for practice.
Comment was made by an “old” instructor, mid sixties(he is younger than I by more than ten years, groan) that he had heard some of the “university EEs” don’t have much practical knowledge, too few lab hours.
This program has follow on programs at MSOE and others for a full BSEE, that is after two year tuition of about$15K(free for some income levels) plus living expenses. (This means one can go to school for book fees.) Many of the students live at home, expect lack of drinking and sex are a problem if that is part of social development. MSOE accepts all courses from this CC, no BS taking duplicate courses to buck up tuition expenses.
Conclusion: It is possible to go two years and get a $76K plus start overtime job in biomedical engineering at large clinics(Chose wisely and yours and your family’s healthcare is taken care of). If they want to go on for a BSEE, it is possible and I am starting to think MSOE might have some plusses, it is practical. I think one can still get an excellent education in America at a very reasonable price.
I know, the world here is going to end any day now, but in case it doesn’t, this group is a fun group.
Dennis L.
Study saying that Germany would have been a lot better off, if it had invested in nuclear over the past 20 years, instead of wind and solar.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14786451.2024.2355642#abstract
What if Germany had invested in nuclear power? A comparison between the German energy policy the last 20 years and an alternative policy of investing in nuclear power
Of course, there is the detail of whether there really would have been uranium available to power these stations for as long as they could be open (which is far longer than wind and solar operate). There likely would have to be a whole lot more reprocessing than is available today. This process requires fossil fuels.
Politically:
Russia/Germany as partners; high tech engineering, fossil fuels, nuclear plants, uranium for power. This would have made a very large economy, diverse, self sufficient and with the ability to defend itself should that have been necessary.
Life is full of choices, sociopaths seems to rise to the top, they are interested in immediate gains as opposed to long term benefits.
For the correlation inclined think of a political leader of Ukraine and another; they have one thing in common. I don’t like that conclusion, believe we should all get along.
Dennis L.
Perhaps the most disheartening prediction made by Exxon concerns EVs and their effect on oil demand. Here’s what Exxon said about electric vehicles:
“If every new car sold in the world in 2035 were electric, oil demand in 2050 would still be 85 million barrels per day. That’s the same as it was in 2010.”
….According to the supermajor, global oil production is facing a natural decline at a rate of some 15% annually over the next 25 years. For context, the IEA sees the rate of natural decline at 8% annually. Exxon points out, however, that the faster decline rate is a result of the shift towards shale and other unconventional oil production, where depletion happens faster than it does in conventional formations.
“To put it in concrete terms: With no new investment, global oil supplies would fall by more than 15 million barrels per day in the first year alone.” This is a scary prospect because “At that rate, by 2030, oil supplies would fall from 100 million barrels per day to less than 30 million – that’s 70 million barrels short of what’s needed to meet demand every day.”
……The supermajor might not be exaggerating the future that awaits the world if investment in oil and gas ceases. Fortunately for all of us, investment in oil and gas will not cease, despite the activist calls and threats by governments to force them to cease. The threats will remain just threats. Energy security always trumps ideology.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
Hmmm…kinda sound similar to what sometimes we hear here in comments,
And the in the writings of Gail
And this is a precursor of what a world with limited FF’s might look like. Greenies fail to comprehend that all of the creature comforts humans take for granted today were all made possible because of fossil fuels. They want to have their cake and eat it too. It’s either BAU and enjoy an easier life because of FF’s or endure a harsh life punishing life without them. Humans tend to be dumb until it’s too late.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/climate/paris-olympics-failure-green-policies-on-display/
I don’t think we know how much oil production would fall. We are facing a possible collapse of the US$ trading system, and debt defaults in many parts of the world. We are going to have to get along with much less unless we can figure out a new inexpensive form of energy that can work in our current system.
Probably much truth in that. I have above mention of the increased farm production out of US. Also, you mentioned ethanol, from memory, 47% of the IA corn crop goes to ethanol. Now, add electric vehicles and farm incomes face challenges.
So many variables coming from so many directions.
Dennis L.
I live in Iowa. The first commandment if you run for political office in this state is “thou shall love ethanol”
It makes me want to beat my head against a wall.
i’ve said for years
burning our food supplies to have cheap transportation is an ultimate madness
Exxon Joins OPEC in Warning of Looming Oil Supply Crisis
“According to the supermajor, global oil production is facing a natural decline at a rate of some 15% annually over the next 25 years. For context, the IEA sees the rate of natural decline at 8% annually. Exxon points out, however, that the faster decline rate is a result of the shift towards shale and other unconventional oil production, where depletion happens faster than it does in conventional formations.
“To put it in concrete terms: With no new investment, global oil supplies would fall by more than 15 million barrels per day in the first year alone.” This is a scary prospect because “At that rate, by 2030, oil supplies would fall from 100 million barrels per day to less than 30 million – that’s 70 million barrels short of what’s needed to meet demand every day.”
In other words, if investment in new oil and gas production dries up, the world will soon face not just a supply squeeze but the mother of all supply squeezes. Per Exxon’s report, the effects of that squeeze will feature severe energy shortages and disruption to daily lives, with oil prices potentially rising by as much as 400%–twice as much as they jumped during the Arab oil embargo in the 1970s. This would, in turn, lead to higher unemployment, where rates could reach 30%, Exxon also said.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Exxon-Joins-OPEC-in-Warning-of-Looming-Oil-Supply-Crisis.html
There is always the misunderstanding with respect to what low supply would do. It is doubtful that ” oil prices potentially rising by as much as 400%.”
What would happen is a huge rise in wage and wealth disparity. Poor people would become even more destitute. Governments would tend to fail.
Gail,
I don’t know what it costs the Amish to live, but they seem to do very well in my neighborhood without driving automobiles, etc. Yes, they do have deliveries.
As I keep mentioning, they take Sundays off and pray, sing as well as socialize in their Sunday finest. I see the kids playing after what I assume is service.
How many households would be worse off without an expensive cell phone, cable TV even Air Conditioning. Wood heat warms twice as they say. The Amish where I am have what looks like an outhouse by the road with I assume a land line and a stool on which to sit. Horses are generally tied outside.
This is perhaps extreme, but perhaps without all the “overhead” of our social system much would be possible. City schools routinely turn out students who cannot read; this is not an oil fix but a social fix. Something is not working, perhaps a different direction.
Dennis L.
The Amish live in a world that is supported by everybody else
that costs a lot
those are the costs that the amish do not acknowledge, and pretend they do not apply to them
unfortunately, they do apply to them
Norman,
I seems to work and they have a day of rest.
Dennis L.
Dennis, many, many years ago an article in either Whole Earth Catalog or Coevolutionary Quarterly, titled
Amish Economics that essentially in a nutshell said the same as you. Both Wendell Berry and Gene Logsdon
I visited your parts and saw the same.
….from Wendell Berry
. I have had in mind throughout this essay the one example known to me of an American community of small family farmers who have not only survived but thrived during some very difficult years: I mean the Amish. I do not recommend, of course, that all farmers should become Amish, nor do I want to suggest that the Amish are perfect people or that their way of life is perfect. What I want to recommend are some Amish principles: 1. They have preserved their families and communities. 2. They have maintained the practices of neighborhood. 3. They have maintained the domestic arts of kitchen and garden, household and homestead. 4. They have limited their use of technology so as not to displace or alienate available human labor or available free sources of power (the sun, wind, water, and so on). 5. They have limited their farms to a scale that is compatible both with the practice of neighborhood and with the optimum use of low-power technology. 6. By the practices and limits already mentioned, they have limited their costs. 7. They have educated their children to live at home and serve their communities. 8. They esteem farming as both a practical art and a spiritual discipline. These principles define a world to be lived in by human beings, not a world to be exploited by managers, stockholders, and experts.
BTW
Description
How Tyson Captured All The Pork You Eat (And Made Billions)
More Perfect Union YouTube
Iowa has lost 90% of its family farms in the past 40 years — 40,000 total farms, gone.
But hog industry profits have tripled.
All that profit just goes to 3 companies that now dominate every aspect of the pork industry.
not saying amish-ism is a bad hing
just pointing out how it is sustained
Norman, on the whole, the Amish are a lot more self-sufficient than you are and a lot less dependent on “the system”.
If I remember correctly, you live on a very generous Prudential pension that is supported by everybody else.
By surviving for so long, you’ve drawn out far more money than you ever paid in, funded largely from the contributions of people who died before they were able to get back the equivalent of what they paid in premiums.
It’s pretty ghoulish, if you think about it.
5 timworths in a row—you must be an early riser
the pru made a bet i would die young—they lost, i won—that pru thing has been bugging you for years tim, sorry if i’m sucking in your quota of air, but it is still rather pleasant.—at least with you so far away i can be pretty certain you havent breathed it first.
as to it being very generous—is another matter entirely
i also bet on gold, and doubled my money there too….add that to your list.
the amish live in a very stable socity, ask yourself why amish communes are in the usa and not in china, iraq or bolivia or somehere.
society there provides a safe place for them to ”be”
when society breaks down, the mobs will not go round amish territory.
i try to grant you some intelligence—but do stop to think sometimes tim
Norman, I try to treat you with decency and respect. I really do.
But it’s really difficult sometimes because you’re such a smeg head!
Better not gloat so much about your financial successes. You can’t take it with you, and gloating at your age can easily bring on a fit or an angina attack.
Mrs Tim was telling me just yesterday that she was worried about what would happen to our worldly goods when we shed this mortal coil.
I told her, “We could give the art and the antiques collection away now and achieve a greater measure of simplicity, but I don’t know anyone who would appreciate that stuff or take care of it as much as we do. Why not just talk to the solicitor and put all the wealth into a legacy for the cat refuge? I’m sure they will appreciate it. And let’s not tell them so we don’t have to worry about them murdering us in our beds to get their hands on it?”
Now, regarding the Amish, there are groups of them in Canada and Mexico as well as in the US.
And there are several other Christian groups that share similarities with the Amish in terms of lifestyle and outlook. These include the Hutterites, found primarily in Canada and the northern U.S.; the Mennonites, who live in the U.S., Canada, and here and there in Latin America and Europe; the
Brethren, which has roots in the Anabaptist tradition, in various countries, including Germany and the U.S.. All these groups emphasize simplicity, community and self sufficiency, as well as a rural lifestyle. They are Christians, so it is unsurprising that they flourish in traditionally Christian countries.
But— and this is something you seem as blissfully unaware of as a man who has lost his sense of smell and hearing is of a fart—there are similar communities in the Buddhist, Hindu and Muslim worlds too, all over the Middle East and South, East and Southeast Asia.
For instance—
Buddhist Communities
Monastic Communities: Many Buddhist monks and nuns live in monasteries and follow strict codes of conduct, emphasizing simplicity, meditation, and communal living.
Engaged Buddhism: Some groups focus on social justice and community living, prioritizing mindfulness and sustainable practices.
Hindu Communities
Sadhus and Ascetics: Certain Hindu ascetic communities live in simplicity and renunciation, dedicating their lives to spiritual practices away from mainstream society.
Traditional Villages: In some rural areas, communities adhere to traditional lifestyles that emphasize agricultural living, family ties, and spiritual practices.
Muslim Communities
Sufi Orders: Some Sufi communities emphasize a spiritual way of life that includes communal living and simplicity, focusing on inner spirituality and service.
Traditional Village Muslims: In various countries, rural Muslim communities maintain traditional lifestyles that prioritize family, community, and religious practices.
///not saying amish-ism is a bad hing
just pointing out how it is sustained///
such an irate response to that—trying to figure out why.
When i got to threescore and ten plus one—i wrote to the pru and apologised, and said i hoped the matter would soon be rectified, and i was trying a few traditional methods to bring matters to a close, —all i got back was a very irate letter from their ceo, (much in the vein of yours ) suggesting that it was time i topped myself, as they needed to balance their books.
next year i think theyll put out a contract on me—so i too must look to divesting myself of my worldly goods, before i too am —shuffled— off this mortal coil.
normally i wouldnt correct quotes from the Bard, but pedantry asks to be countered. (and I dont need to look it up)
i could have used the term ‘pop my clogs’–but that really would have confused some ofw inmates.–maybe even you—having lived on the opposite side of the Eurasian land mass for so long.
as i said, the amish live in a stable environment,, mostly N America— that stabilitity is the product of everyone around them…if that stabililty collapses, so will their society.
other holy orders live elsewhere–but have to be careful where they live.
monastic societies flourished in the uk—by sucking out the best from the land on the threat of godly displeasure—it has been a common trait of humankind for millennia, one way or another.
so lazy to cut n paste lists to counter my point of view, and equally lazy to lift epithets from Red Dwarf—cant you think up one of your own?
“You can’t take it with you”
I don’t know if it will work, but I know of several who do plan to take their wealth through cryonic suspension.
keith
as ive admitted on previous occasions, you demonstrate a sparkling intellect, which i enjoy
other times, your words seem to betray an intelligence which does not appear to have elevated itself any higher than an extensive library of science fiction novels as a reference base, and an outdated pocket calculator.
i offer that criticism because you seem worth more
“offer that criticism”
I didn’t say I was going to do this (takes serious wealth to set up) just that I know of people who were going to try it.
I don’t see why you are complaining about me reporting factual information.
Incidentally, history shows that what was once science fiction, such as Clarke’s geosynchronous radio relays can become business pushing half a trillion dollars per year.
pushing half a trillion
is not the same as creating half a trillion
and it wasnt criticism, just observation, youve touched on this cryo stuff before.
freezing your bits for 500 years in the hope of a future utopia means believing our enegy based economic system will sustain itself in its current form for that time
when every indication says it wont.
“pushing half a trillion
is not the same as creating half a trillion”
New business. Grew from nothing to half a trillion a year.
“believing our enegy based economic system will sustain itself in its current form for that time”
No it does not. New energy sources will be needed, there are multiple candidates.
right now, i’m doing some comprehensive research on the industrial revolution, 1750s-on.
back then they were creating ”new business” by extracting energy rich material from the earth.
they had to be paid—but–
the mint wasnt geared up to provide sufficient currency to pay wages that matched the new level of demand from workers—who were constantly ”increasing output”, this was from raw heat, basically, coming out of the ground
so factory owners had to make their own coins, and, stock their own stores where it could be spent—-ie ”energy exchange”
they were making and selling stuff.
that is my point—find all the energy you fantasise about, but unless you have a working use for it—apart from keeping you chilled—, it will remain unused.
and if energy remains unused, it will dissipate to nothing.
you keep asserting ”limitless energy”, with little or no suggestion as to how it might be converted into corresponding ”stuff” with actual value.–
you cant buy a new tv every week, or a car every month….and such objects themselves demand energy input, or they too remain useless.
Dennis has the same fixation on energy….as an end in itself.
energy is not wealth.
only energy exchange creates wealth and ongoing prosperity for people—just like it did in the 1750s.
I can’t help myself. I’m a big fan of Red Dwarf.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4Lq__QnNjo
Norman, I’m not angry at you at all.
It’s interesting how Norman, Keith and Tim are all up there on the right side of of the IQ bell curve, well into three figures, and still with most of our marbles, and yet each of us can find glaring instances of what seems gross stupeedity in the other two. Just sayin.’
And Dennis, you are invited to join this club too.
Now Norman, there was once a miserly old Yorkshireman who had a big lump of gold that he hid in the drystone wall at the bottom of his garden.
Early every morning before anyone else was awake, he would tiptoe down to the bottom of the garden and take out the gold and admire it like Gollum did with the One Ring.
Then, one terrible morning, he went down to the bottom of the garden and found that the gold was gone!!
Heartbroken, he called on the local Sufi or was it a Zen monk—I can never remember—oh yes, a local Wizard, and asked what he could do as his life was now ruined.
“Take a stone of about the same size as the gold you lost, paint it gloss yellow, and stick it in the wall where the gold used to reside. Visit the wall every morning and admire its yellow lustre….
“Because that is all you ever did with the gold when it was in your possession.”
On hearing this wisdom, the Yorkshire man was heard to remark “By gum!”
there must be a deep meaning to that
i need time to figure out what it might be
“At that rate, by 2030, oil supplies would fall from 100 million barrels per day to less than 30 million – that’s 70 million barrels short of what’s needed to meet demand every day.”
HOLY S**T!!
” “According to the supermajor, global oil production is facing a natural decline at a rate of some 15% annually over the next 25 years. For context, the IEA sees the rate of natural decline at 8% annually. Exxon points out, however, that the faster decline rate is a result of the shift towards shale and other unconventional oil production, where depletion happens faster than it does in conventional formations. ”
8% conservative decline rate implies that a new Saudi Arabia must come online year after year after year and so forth . Best of luck .
” . . . that Russia
17:40 will not accept hitting infrastructure within the
17:46 heartland of Russia would be intended to disrupt the war economy and to um
17:56 traumatize Russian Civil Society Society in the hope of a regime change . . .
will they Russians attack
18:16 the stores of arms on the other side of the Border in a NATO country like Romania or Poland hey guys use your
18:23 imagination a bit better what will the Russians do they’re going to hit Washington DC don’t think two minutes
18:29 about it they’ve said it if you’re listening that’s what they’ve said . . . “?
Dr. Doctorow worries about the kind of retaliation that I would worry about. Russia (Putin) has threatened to strike back, if US arms are used to attack Russia. We should worry about this.
So far all of the Russian Red Line threats that Putin has made have amounted to nothing. So the West no longer takes the Russians or Putin seriously and they therefore they continue to ramp up the provocations. Hell, I no longer take the Russians or Putin seriously. That frustrates Paul Craig Roberts who has been pushing for a Putin escalated response so as to put fear into the US, Ukraine, NATO and the West.
The US is/has apparently shipped much ammunition, missiles, tanks, etc. from stockpiles, read military capital which has now been spent. One might assume this capital cannot be replaced at the previous sunk costs implying fewer replacements, etc.
Some commenters suspect the West will go nuclear first assuming Russia will not react. That is a hell of a bet. US leaders have no experience with war, should it come home that will be a jolt; the deplorables in the middle of the country may not even know it happened until the evening news.
I don’t think we know the future except the US is in decline, take a walk on the wild side in some of our larger cities.
Dennis L.
Russia tends to go in for sneak attacks and sabotage. Look at the recent fires at famous European buildings in recent years: Notre Dame, the Copenhagen Stock Exchange building; Somerset House, London. Then there’s the misinformation on social media. Was Russia behind any of the messages that stirred up trouble in England recently?
Who ‘wants peace’?
“2019 RAND Paper . . .
As far back as 2019, US Army-commissioned studies examined different means to provoke and antagonize Russia who they acknowledged sought to avoid conflict. “
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqVPM0KSUpo&t=5s
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html
It’s OK to be a shill for the plutocrats and the MIC?
Who you calling a shill? Me? I regard the putative sabotage attacks as tit4tat by Russia since 2014, Maidan, and the murders in Odessa, etc.
Listened to that one, some concerns for our actions and possible outcomes.
Dennis L.
Exxon Joins OPEC in Warning of Looming Oil Supply Crisis
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Exxon-Joins-OPEC-in-Warning-of-Looming-Oil-Supply-Crisis.html
Excerpts :
Exxon predicts a future oil shortage if investment in new production doesn’t increase, despite forecasts of declining demand due to electric vehicles.
The company argues a rapid decline in production, especially from unconventional sources like shale, could lead to severe energy shortages and price hikes.
Exxon’s warnings contrast with forecasts from the IEA and others who see lower oil demand in the future but raise questions about the long-term security of energy supplies.
…
“If every new car sold in the world in 2035 were electric, oil demand in 2050 would still be 85 million barrels per day. That’s the same as it was in 2010.”
…
According to the supermajor, global oil production is facing a natural decline at a rate of some 15% annually over the next 25 years. For context, the IEA sees the rate of natural decline at 8% annually. Exxon points out, however, that the faster decline rate is a result of the shift towards shale and other unconventional oil production, where depletion happens faster than it does in conventional formations.
“To put it in concrete terms: With no new investment, global oil supplies would fall by more than 15 million barrels per day in the first year alone.” This is a scary prospect because “At that rate, by 2030, oil supplies would fall from 100 million barrels per day to less than 30 million – that’s 70 million barrels short of what’s needed to meet demand every day.”
…
Of course, this is not going to happen. Long before such a massive squeeze materializes, there will be calls for more production, often from the same people who are currently calling for an end to all new oil and gas investment, as the IEA’s Fatih Birol did shortly after the IEA published its roadmap to net zero back in 2021.
Funny, I posted the same thing and hadn’t refreshed.
15% decline is crazy talk. Sounds like the peak oil doomers who are saying we got like 10 years of oil reserves left.
Quark has done an excellent analysis . Get some booze or toilet paper . Read comments . Spanish . Google translate .
https://futurocienciaficcionymatrix.blogspot.com/2024/08/el-informe-exxon.html
Holy sh**
https://imgur.com/a/TeujfG2
If it drops like that. Forget going back to the dark ages (sorry, Kulm). We’re going back to the stone ages.
we pulled off the neat trick of turn oil into food
been screaming warnings for years–wrote the book on it in 2013
but what do i know
“Concerned scientists and other citizens have been lifting up their voices in warning for centuries about the way we are treating this planet. They have spoken out about habitat destruction, human overshoot, pollution—and are mostly met with indifference or disdain by mainstream society, especially the upper echelons that have grown rich and powerful from their exploitation and abuse of nature and their fellow humans.”
Racing to Extinction: Why Humanity Will Soon Vanish. Lyle Lewis (2024)
it is summed up by our desire to make money from the planet itself
humans are to only species with the ability to do that
that has been our means of destroying it.
or maybe, more likely, the means by which the planet will get rid of us.
This is an IEA chart that is shown in this report.
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhlwbhysqEMzUr8ex3SAEs0NYVZEeF19O0UgSNAjOxhoDwyJKykiQue6mHqZ6caKaAyFrl0j7rcPb0fSjnkcxq1foM4SiQ-RespnDdSP7u3QkGTrKIcIwpzxDld1MuJE-0BrkWRX8vqmyk5lcqrt4Ghj7DGbOJtymhF6bNy-4H0khCxMVkhKvT_Mx1F8IYX/w532-h640/comparativa.png
In all three of the three views of the future shown, (2050 projection, IEA Steps, and IPCC Likely below 2 degrees C avg.), the total energy supply is higher in 2050 than in 2023.
Hydro, wind, solar and geothermal come to 6% of total energy supply in 2023 actuals. Somehow, this is supposed to rise to 15%, 21%, or 30% of the higher actuals in 2050.
IEA (and the US EIA) do not give much credit for intermittent electricity. The only organization that does is the Energy Institute. Quark doesn’t seem to understand this difference in his writeup.
Getting to these huge penetrations seems absurd to me. They would require huge amounts of fossil fuels to build and maintain. The amount of grid that would be required would be amazing.
I should add that Quark’s conclusion is correct. It says,
As I look further at what Quark says, the first forecast shown (Projection 2050) is an Exxon forecast. We don’t know how intermittent electricity is counted in that view.
How intermittent electricity is counted makes a huge difference in the supposed total amount intermittent electricity supply. The other two forecasts (as well as EIA’s estimates) use the more realistic “intermittent electricity is only worth the heat value of its output.” The Energy Institute’s approach is to “gross up” this amount, for the amount of fossil fuel supposedly saved (more than doubling the value of the output).
Building intermittent energy infrastructure takes a huge amount of fossil fuel consumption upfront for new transmission, batteries, bigger roads and ships, footings, and building the devices themselves. Giving intermittent electricity a lot of credit for saving fossil fuel energy is an iffy assumption, especially it mostly replaces fuel–the entire rest of the system remains to provide backup for the intermittent electricity. Also, wind especially needs to be replaced very often, about every 15 years. Batteries likely need to be replaced even more often, as do inverters. We end up on a fossil fuel tread mill with these devices.
Wonder at the scalability of using the solar as available to produce end products. If that process can be interrupted, it would become a use of capital function rather than a P/L, cashflow question. Solar is basically free energy, the capital costs are the killer especially when the sun does not shine. With solar as the variable energy, sunshine, is basically free.
Dennis L.
“With solar as the variable energy, sunshine, is basically free. ”
Close to free, the best I know about is a 2 GW installation that sells power for 1.35 cents per kWh, but (of course) only when the sun is shining.
For some applications the cost of the capital equipment using that power can’t stand the cost of power available only one third of the time. I ran into that working on synthetic fuel The anualized cost of hydrogen electrolysis cells was higher than the cost of energy going into the cells.
I think the trick in this instance is to use renewable energy to heat coal in steam. The coal heaters should be a lot less expensive than electrolysis cells full of platinum. It’s not a long term solution, eventually we will need to pull carbon out of the air, but it should supply diesel and jet fuel for a long time.
dennis
thats like saying oil is free
which it is as long as you leave it where it is.
i have coal 50ft under my feet—free
until i go to the expense of digging down for it
Crazy, indeed. Picture that : 2 years from now : -30%. Huge. We wouldn’t live in the same world anymore. What it would be can’t be predicted, I guess..
-30% in two years means social revolution in every industrialized nation on planet earth.
The purpose of think tanks like The Club of Rome, The World Economic Forum and the various sustainable development agendas countries that are members of the U.N. are following is to prevent “social revolution”. The last thing the people in charge want is a loss of control.
Exactly!
Global gas report by Rystad .
” Should gas demand continue to grow as in the last 4 years, without additional production development, a 22% global supply shortfall is expected by 2030. If demand continues to strengthen, the shortfall will be more pronounced. This underscores the urgent need to scale up investments. ” Best of luck .
https://www.igu.org/resources/global-gas-report-2024-edition/
The catch is that there isn’t very much demand for very high-priced natural gas. Low-priced natural gas there is demand for.
Shipping natural gas is very expensive, especially as LNG. But even shipping by pipeline requires a lot of fossil fuel use to create the pipeline and put it in place. If natural gas price goes as high as in 2022, there will be little demand for it.
Good point, guess is coal is much cheaper than gas at a relatively low price point. Capital vs variable cost of fuel.
Dennis L.
What Energy Transition? -Rapier
“The data shows that in nine of the past ten years, overall energy demand outpaced the ability of renewables to keep up with that demand. The only exception was in 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic dramatically impacted energy production.
These trends have important implications. If renewable energy isn’t keeping up with or even substantially gaining on overall energy demand growth, then other energy sources have to make up the deficit. That has meant that fossil fuel growth — and subsequently global carbon dioxide emissions — continue to rise.
Thus, what has happened thus far isn’t the energy transition some have pictured. Coal consumption is on the decline, but overall fossil fuel consumption continues to grow. As a result, some have referred to the current situation as an “energy expansion” rather than an “energy transition.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2024/08/27/what-energy-transition/
I know Robert Rapier from my Oil Drum days. He was another writer for TheOilDrum.com. He has worked both in the oil industry and in some renewables. His view that this is an energy expansion rather than an energy transition is perhaps optimistic. Perhaps renewables are an attempt to cushion the shortfall.
Alex Krainer thinks Ukraine is going belly-up debt-wise, and that the UK, as a major creditor, is on a big enough hook that it is probably going to go belly-up too.
He says there is “panic at the Bank of England” and also ties the financial situation and the Ukraine situation to the recent mostly peaceful UK riots and the crackdown on freedom of expression.
This is an absolutely brilliant, although frightening, analysis.
Norman, I fear for your pension!
Mirror, you are going to enjoy this.
https://alexkrainer.substack.com/p/the-coming-collapse-of-britain
Everyone will definitely benefit from listening to or reading Alex — not another Alex!? — but you’ll need to budget about half an hour to get through this.
Alex finishes his talk on the following thought: “Current British circumstances are in many ways similar to those faced by the Weimar republic a century ago, suggesting that it might travel along a similar trajectory to a similar end.”
“peaceful UK riots”
That’s a really good trick!
Remove the ‘mostly’.
That’s a really weak trick.
Same thing happened here in NZ during the peaceful covid protests. Psycho’s in media would cut and clip to promote the agenda.
Sick, weak minds.
“Remove the ‘mostly’.”
It is abusing the language to say “peaceful riot.” You can have a peaceful demonstration, but not a riot. “Mostly” does not help.
Following the riots there were peaceful demonstrations of people deploring the senophobic riots.
Of course the interesting thing at the meta level is why humans exhibit mob behavior? At some time in out past this must have had selective advantage.
The US media popularized “mostly peaceful protests” as a description the rioting, looting and burning down of city centers that went on across the US in the wake of the George Floyd incident. I’m merely jamming with them.
I don’t know what you are going on about; the language hasn’t complained
Here you go, Keith.
https://media.makeameme.org/created/mostly-peaceful-protesters-f0b1c54c0c.jpg
https://singularityhub.com/2024/08/29/ai-models-scaled-up-10000x-are-possible-by-2030-report-says/
Just to complicate the picture, talking about huge growth in energy use training and operating AI.
Will AI models still hallucinate?
“Will AI models still hallucinate?”
Probably not. Or if they do, it may be too subtle for us to detect.
ln effect the British have loaned their equipment off the shelf, stored capital, and sent it to Ukraine to be blown up for a piece of paper.
Without that equipment, how does one collect? Seems someone is already there and the Brits may not be welcome.
Too much financial engineering.
Dennis L.
I am afraid Alex could be right.
Exactly what was the endgame behind give Ukraine loans? Does Europe have a suicide wish or something? I don’t like Putin, but we must make peace with Russia, is it worth nuclear war for the Donbas or Crimea.
There is an Asian country that just started digital currency with UBI included. I think its thailand without looking it up.
But wait, there’s MORE!
You have to spend the digital money within 6 months and within a 2.5-mile radius of your home.
How to ramp up local demand, perhaps. Except, in the US, everything is shipped long distances.
Klaus Schwab’s utopia, 15 minute cities. See if you can find a link to which city is implementing this!
Here it is. Thailand
https://x.com/newstart_2024/status/1826608840214802513
Thanks!
seabuddy that was part of hubert’s plan so you see the elders are following hubert’s plan
which means that if this is the plan oil prices will rise leading to more oil being extracted.ultra deep water oil is part of the agenda along with oil that was found in Antarctica. the amount was in the order of 500 billion barrels of oil. This should give us enough time to transition until 2050
It is the only plan unless they have some other form of energy out there. They will just keep recycling the money debt is only what they tell us it is…they make up the rules as we go along
isn’t this kind of logical. I thought a constant-flow stock model of resource allocation with selective breeding by data monitoring to be the only meaningful choice of civilizational preservation. nothing else made sense to me as a 13 year old in geography class. I don’t really understand how billions of humans can be duped into thinking IOUs come before physical stuff.
wish i was old enough to be an elder
*Heros are always created by accident.
i just keep having accidents without the hero bit
A K mentioned a possible singularity thwarted by an honor stricken Chucky.
Some here might be despondent being the 2nd smartest being.
Alas hope, from big k:
according to Kurzweil, the singularity will occur in the 2040s when humans and AI merge to become a super-being. The futurist says this will lead to drastically longer lifespans, an end to disease and an ultimate human utopia.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/singularity-how-ai-could-become-final-boss-whale-crypto
Honestly I’d like Kurzweil’s view on energy; he’d probably just roll his eyes.
Dennis you have that starship manual?
I’m gonna watch Star Trek till I get one.
Kurzweill had said that Singularity was to be at 2015, then 2025 and now 2040.
2040 may well be 2,040,000,000, or, realistically never.
The threshold of time to bring it any good has passed. Kurzweil probably thinks he , born in 1948, will not live past 2040 and is setting his deadline on then.
No one can bring the gene pool of Europe back, destroyed by Chucky and his 200/400 artisans, farmhands, and railroad signalers from Worcestershire. The people of USA and Asia did not go through the eugenic process for 4 centuries to produce the Giants, which is why all ‘talents’ from North America and Asia are less able than those from the old world. Dennis L says anyone is talented if they seem to be smarter than him, but I say if most of them are lobotomized the world would have lost nothing.
“Kurzweill had said that Singularity was to be at 2015, then 2025 and now 2040.”
I have been following Kurzweil for a long time, “The Clinic Seed” story which I wrote close to 20 years ago was set in the 2040s and based off Ray’s estimate.
“2040 may well be 2,040,000,000, or, realistically never.”
The singularity is AI and nanotechnology. The rapid development of AI in the last year was both expected and a shock.
“The threshold of time to bring it any good has passed. Kurzweil probably thinks he , born in 1948, will not live past 2040 and is setting his deadline on then.”
None of us knows how fast medicine will develop, he might well make it without cryonics, but he is signed up (and public about it).
“No one can bring the gene pool of Europe back, destroyed by Chucky and his 200/400 artisans, farmhands, and railroad signalers from Worcestershire. ”
I think you are forgetting that genes are carried by women as well. Not many died in that war.
And you are forgetting that women don’t carry Y chromosomes, or at least they didn’t until the degenerates in power started “abusing the language” as you put it.
And no one can bring the gene pool of Europe back unless they can bring back the Y chromosomes of Europe’s aristocratic elites and its bravest warriors, many of which perished intestate at Verdun and on the Somme.
“bring back the Y chromosomes of Europe’s aristocratic elites ”
The Y has very few genes. Look it up.
It’s not about the number of genes that important, it’s about the quality genes. The XX chromosomes are not subject to natural selection as much as the XY chromosomes.
the singularity is a pipe dream that the Elders invented for the purpose of distractingthe world from the Grim reality that we are over populated for a technological world. Of course artificial intelligence and man will integrate but the eventual outcome will be a shorter life span.unfortunately the human race will dive into this pipe dream and willingly sacrifice their bodies to artificial intelligence.
“the singularity is a pipe dream that the Elders invented”
That’s interesting. I know some of the people who first wrote about the singularity.
Does that mean I know some of the “elders?”
dont laff
they once published an operating manual for the starship enterprise
the drive system was of course classified
Japanese gov’t appeals for calm as panic rice buying continues
Aug. 28 06:40 am JST 87 Comments
TOKYO
The threat of a megaquake, a series of typhoons, and a week-long national holiday have some Japanese scrambling to buy rice — the nation’s cherished staple food — with the government appealing to the public Tuesday not panic buy.
“We could only procure half the usual amount of rice this summer and bags of rice get quickly sold out,” a clerk at a branch of the popular Fresco supermarket chain told AFP in the Japanese capital.
Rice shelves in some stores emptied or stocks were rationed after a government warning this month — since lifted — of a possible megaquake, as well as several typhoons and the annual Obon holiday.
Other factors include lower harvests caused by hot weather and water shortages, as well as increased demand related to record numbers of foreign tourists.
At one food store in Tokyo, a sign seen by AFP read: “In order for many customers to be able to buy, we ask you to purchase one (bag of rice) a day per family.”
A worker at another store in Tokyo said: “We can’t purchase any rice at all, and there’s no prospect of buying anytime soon”.
The Fresco worker told AFP that daily stocks ran out by midday.
The future is NOW..Stay Calm and be First..it’s much easier
There was a mega quake earthquake special caution week that recently ended, scaring people. This is an Aug. 15th story:
https://apnews.com/article/japan-megaquake-advisory-precaution-9222bb8d170028ce32fa6891917d20c7
This kind of scare could certainly add to worry.
Panic buying is recommended .
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-hit-by-heavy-rain-power-outage-typhoon-shanshan-makes-landfall-2024-08-29/
Student Loan Forgiveness not going to be reinstated – Supreme Court
https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/28/politics/supreme-court-biden-student-loan/index.html
Seems things are getting very unfavorable for the freeloaders.
If the students, default, the productive people will be taxed to cover the loss.
Investors are guaranteed a return on their investment.
The strong preying on the weak.
The freeloaders are the weak.
You should feel good inside but you don’t.
Maybe you need a software update.
> Kursk Changed the War – Dmitry Polyanskiy (Russian Rep to UN), Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen
Russian UN representative: US has not been saying anything about Ukraine’s recent actions. Ukraine is now behaving in an aggressive manner. The US must have had some involvement in these actions. The West has given a blank check to Ukraine. Killing civilians including pregnant women. Ukraine is having losses of soldiers in these attacks.
Alexander: US perhaps has been reticent in saying anything because it doesn’t want any association with what could have been an attack on a nuclear power plant.
Russian UN representative: Station was attacked, but representatives of IAEA who were present won’t say by whom. Ukraine moved away from seeking peaceful settlement, instead seeking trying to escalate the war. Russia will provide ever-worse options for Ukraine.
Glenn Diesen: How this will change the war?
Russian UN representative: Doesn’t want to speculate on what Russia will do. Place being attacked is small (only one village of 1,000), mostly forested. Difficult for army maneuvering. Ukraine was losing 1,000 people per day on the new front. Losing miserably on the Eastern from also. Have two months until weather turns wet and muddy.
Alexander: Ukraine is trying to leverage these attacks to try to get the Americans to support Ukraine with long range missiles to support the attacks. Do you think this is going to happen, and what would be Russia’s response? Politico article thought that this would go way too far, and damage relations with Russia greatly. What are your thoughts?
Russian UN representative: Zelensky really needs direct involvement of the West to win this war. This is Zelensky’s Plan C. It cannot be worse for Ukraine, since they are doing so badly already. Zelensky could lose its power. Russian representative hopes that there are still some same people in the US.
Glenn Diesen: Is there any change in the West in willingness to talk about peace agreement with Russia?
Russian UN representative: Most analysts are blunt about what West is doing. There were roots for the war from 2014.
Alexander: The reason for all of these problems and crises is because there have never been good-faith negotiations.
Russian UN representative: He would be willing to do interviews with the Western media. He wants any interview to be live, so media cannot edit it the way they would like. But media do not want this approach.
The US navy doesn’t seem to be able to protect the transit of important goods any more.
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/us-warns-houthi-targeted-tanker-threatens-largest-ship-oil-spill-history
Yemen: US warns tanker hit by Houthis could cause largest ship oil spill in history
US State Department has said the wreckage could release an oil spill four times the size of the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster
Flames and smoke rise from the Greek-flagged oil tanker Sounion, which has been on fire since 23 August (Eunavfor Aspides/Reuters)
Jim Rickards suggests that Nvidia stock prices will crash in the near term, disproportionately affecting the S&P 500. Its earnings will be out after market close this afternoon. Even slightly too low will be a problem.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rickards-issues-avalanche-warning
The NATO allies, particularly the US, seem to be asking for trouble:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/drone-strike-hits-russian-oil-depot-which-lies-record-1500km-ukraine
Drone Strike Hits Russian Oil Depot Which Lies At A Record 1,500km From Ukraine
How long will Russia put up with this?
The norms of pre-1914, with the social hierarchy and all that, are going to return with a Vengeance, with a capital V.
Good times are up for the middle class, lower middle class and lower class, which will lose its euphemism ‘working class’.
Once again the haves will be able to treat the lower classes with disdain and the lives of the working class, sorry, now lower class, will be once again very disposable.
However the improved humans lost in 20th and early 21st centuries won’t be coming back. It will take at least 500 years to rebuild the talent pool, since the zombified Asian ‘brains’ won’t be worth a cup of tea.
It will take an indeterminant length of time for the washout phase to be accomplished and the aftermath will be far different than previous cycles when there were ample raw materials and energy waiting in the future. For example, who would have thought that the world could have bounced back to become more productive and advanced than ever before after WWI?
Today many economists and other useless academics imply that the globalists have tons of cash waiting to buy up swathes of real estate, farm land, and factories and will ultimately control us peeps.
Those McMansions out in the suburbs and apartment complexes will become worth less and less. Ditto for factories that require huge inputs of energy and materials not just for manufacturing but distribution. Farmland? How do you farm thousands of acres without these expensive behemoth tractors and the fuel and parts to keep them running?
I make a disjointed analogy from the old Soviet system: “They pretend to pay us and we pretend to work.”
The new Sovietism will be:
“We pretend to pay them for stuff they pretend has value. ”
The financiers borrow at zero percent interest rates with a strategic advantage enabled by the Cantillon effect to buy with fiat currency what will evolve into huge financial dead ends. The cost of maintenance, keeping law and order, and finding people with enough income to pay the rent to make it “profitable” will become increasingly difficult.
Indeed, As the final refrain rings out: “Nothing is everything. Everything is nothing.”
I’m afraid that you might be right!
Centillion effect only works temporarily. Yeah you can borrow resources from present before humans react and create shelters and bunksters, but even the guards you keep can turn on you. There’s no getting out of this.
I am wondering how that will work, equipment is too complex and too expensive.
Personal experience on a minor scale, have had two manufacturing issues, covered under warrantee, but still expensive for simple repairs.
Dennis L.
The collapse of Britain . video .
https://rumble.com/v5cjxrg-the-imminent-collapse-of-great-britain.html
Britannia delenda est
As London transforms into Calcutta-on-Thames, it will become more ‘Asian’.
The UK has been the biggest cheerleader for the invasion of Ukraine. It has supported the Ukraine invasion in many ways, including guaranteeing IMF bonds in Ukraine, and banks buying Ukraine bonds for its portfolio.
The UK is acting exactly like other powers in decline have acted in the past. As their own powers decline, they push for more external adventures (Ukraine). Ukraine is in terrible shape financially, and this situation has gotten worse recently.
The UK is also now making outbreaks of violence seem worse than they are, as an excuse to cut back on freedom of speech. This is related to the greater control they need to have, as the economy goes downhill.
How to Escape the UK RIGHT NOW
13,901 views · 3 hours ago…more
Millionaires are fleeing the United Kingdom as the British government plans to scrap non-dom tax status and impose new tax hikes. As economic growth remains slow and capital flight from the UK speeds up, Mr. Henderson advises entrepreneurs and investors on alternative options to UK residence.
00:00 Who’s Leaving the UK?
00:43 Labour’s Tax Plan and Consequences
04:05 UK Scrapping Its Non-Dom Program
05:16 VAT on School Fees
07:05 Capital Gains Tax
08:24 One Good Thing About the UK
09:04 Capital Flight and Lack of Immigration Program
10:33 Trajectory of The UK
11:01 Takeaways and Your Options
The UK is Dying..
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CC6ZxXUCDwE
I’ve posted on this too, but it’s stuck in moderation.
It’s a very dim prognosis, but puts Starmer’s crackdown on dissidents and mostly peaceful rioters in perspective.
well now Tommy Robinson has skipped the country and gone to live with eddy
who else is there?
Comment from Blackhorn . Copy/paste from Quark’s blog .
” Johan Sverdrup, Europe’s largest oil field, is about to enter a period of decline: “Equinor and the EIA believe that it will enter a phase of decline this year or in 2025.”
Although in reality this was already known at least since the beginning of the year:
Anyway, a few things to say about Norway:
It is very easy to build a collective fiction of blissful sustainability in a country of 323,000 square kilometers occupied by only 5 million inhabitants (less than the community of Madrid), with an abundance of virgin nature and in which Fresh water flows out of everyone’s ears, making it possible for almost 100% of electricity to be of renewable origin. In addition, with such a commitment there, the penetration of EVs is maximum and, apparently, a great example for European neighbors. Of course, taking into account that the GDP per capita is $91,000 and the welfare state exhibits an enviable radiance.
This mirage of paradise or “matrix”, one might say, could only be built on a large pocket of oil and gas in the North Sea. Before discovering it, Norway was nothing; just a Nordic kingdom of fishing and ruinous agriculture punished by a harsh climate and infertile land. However, today the Norwegian state earns around $150,000 million annually just from the extraction of its reserves. How could they not live well? And it also produces tomatoes, of course, at obscene prices.
It is true that they have always managed oil and gas exploitation well, possibly better than the United Kingdom, but as Richard Heinberg rightly points out, any transition worth its salt inevitably involves a reduction in energy consumption and the renunciation of a high standard of living. Norway does not meet either of these two premises. Norway is a country that sees no problem in sending its fishing fleet to plunder… to fish on the west coast of Africa to then produce fish oil for its fish farms. Today, eating salmon in Bergen is the same as eating salmon in San Lorenzo de la Parrilla.
I have had the opportunity to speak with some locals there and you could say that they continually feed the belief that they are transitioning (we’ll see where to). The truth is that they give the appearance of being a textbook example of cognitive dissonance, especially when they show you their total conviction that the product of their enormous export of fossils will serve to successfully promote research into green technologies and finally overcome dirty energies. It would be as if a Colombian cartel were determined to finance a great campaign against drug addiction, in short.
And to put the icing on the cake, I get the impression that a certain degree of messianic delirium is propagated there when they put so much emphasis on ensuring that they are the pioneers in following a correct path of salvation and sustainability of the planet and that they have the “sacred” duty to show it to the rest of the world. ”
Somehow, the energy transition becomes a new religion. The new sin becomes failure to recycle and failure to support green energy policies. There is no need for any kind of savior; everlasting economic growth is available here on earth. The system will take care of us all, until we die.
What Energy Transition?
Robert Rapier Senior Contributor Forbes
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2024/08/27/what-energy-transition/
Robert Rapier is a chemical engineer covering energy
The concept of the “energy transition” emerged after the 1973 oil crisis and was widely popularized by President Jimmy Carter. It refers to the global shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and combat climate change. This transition is driven by government policies, international agreements like the Paris Agreement, and technological advancements in energy storage and efficiency.
……The data shows that in nine of the past ten years, overall energy demand outpaced the ability of renewables to keep up with that demand. The only exception was in 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic dramatically impacted energy production.
These trends have important implications. If renewable energy isn’t keeping up with or even substantially gaining on overall energy demand growth, then other energy sources have to make up the deficit. That has meant that fossil fuel growth — and subsequently global carbon dioxide emissions — continue to rise.
Thus, what has happened thus far isn’t the energy transition some have pictured. Coal consumption is on the decline, but overall fossil fuel consumption continues to grow. As a result, some have referred to the current situation as an “energy expansion” rather than an “energy transition.”
…..The data shows that global energy demand continues to outstrip the growth of renewable energy, leading to a continued growing reliance on fossil fuels and rising carbon emissions.
This is a July 24, 2024 article I found:
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/071224-norways-sverdrup-crude-output-seen-declining-very-late-2024early-2025-aker-bp-chief
It sounds to me as though they are working hard to get out what is available, as quickly as possible, thus holding up the decline curve for now, but steepening it later.
From the article:
Western people live in lala land. They literally are children and have to be spoonfed everything. It’s not abortion, it’s right to my body!
It’s not killing, it’s right to die! It’s not useless people, it’s non-essential workers. It’s not blowing up millions of children to stick an oil rig, it’s installing a democracy and suppressing the evil regime. It’s like kindergarden. It’s not dumping trillions of pounds of waste material onto third-worlders, it’s an EV transition to a greener future!
There just is something wrong with Western people and their propensity for naivety, stupidity and/or gullibility / insensibility in dealing with reality.
We believe what is best for ourselves..
Just ask my buddy who is a player in the romance game.
He was in awe of his Lady lovers gullibility in believing they were the only ones…they needed to do that in order to remain functional in their comfort zone
Today’s task is not sustaining the human population, but sustaining the living conditions of the humans. That is how the limits to growth work: there is no new world to discover, as this sphere called the Earth is finite. When you move in any direction on it, you end up where you are.
More accurately, to sustain the living conditions of people who are worth something, which is about 15-20% of the peoples living in what we can call ‘advanced’ countries.
I expect that readers of this blog are disproportionately more successful, too. They need good vocabularies to understand all of the things we talk about and sustained attention spans.
Thomas Merton, the proficient and noted Trappist author and social critic, once wrote of the American Mythology…here is part of his Essay
The link to the full
https://emptypath.net/2024/02/19/merton-white-nationalism/
….The discovery of America (and you should read the first descriptions of Hispaniola!) galvanized and inebriated the Western World. It did more than anything else—even Copernicus and Galileo-—to overturn the world-view of the Middle Ages.
It revolutionized the thought of Western man. He was now convinced that human society was getting off to an entirely new start.
…But the New-Found-Land was a world without history, therefore without sin, therefore a paradise. To this world came the victims of a Europe grown old in wickedness, with its history of arbitrary authority. To escape from history, that is to say from Europe, to escape from the burden of the past, to return to the source, to begin again a new history, starting from scratch, without original sin.
…..This was what America offered to the oppressed, the persecuted, the unsuccessful, the disinherited—or the merely discontented. To be “baptized” by emigration, to leave one’s sins and one’s past in the Atlantic, to start out for a new life in the wilderness with one’s hand in the hand of God …!
…..For four hundred years American horizons kept widening. There were no limits. There was always a frontier beyond which there was still more paradise, even though on this side of the frontier there was now history, there was sin, and paradise had begun to close down. Yet it did not close down altogether, as long as there was a frontier. There was always a new start, over the mountains, over the plains.
……Thus the word “frontier” became the symbol not only of adventure but of clear-eyed innocence—pathetic overtones, in Kennedy’s “new frontier,” when the frontiers are closed forever! Kennedy is trying to keep the myth alive in spite of everything.1
……At this point, the myth becomes an evasion. The refusal is culpable. The beautiful story we are telling ourselves is no longer much more than an ordinary lie.
After every war (which we, being the good guys, have always won) we have, with the utmost sincerity, exported just a little bit of our innocence, just a little bit of our paradisaical idealism, to the lands sunken in history and sin. Wilson was still a creature of another world, and they almost believed him for a while. The Marshall Plan: surely a thought born of a simple and magnanimous mind. (The Alliance for Progress—the bare ideal remained for a while.)
Yet more and more the lands of sin, the countries of history, have tended to observe, with ever greater malice and with ever more intolerable arrogance, and with manifest satisfaction, that we, too, have a history, that we are no longer the earthly paradise!
There is much more to his essay and I strung together bits of it here for those that care not to hit the link
It is convenient to be able to start over, in a new country, with no known history.
This view may be related to the Chinese name for the US.
https://medium.com/@ttfcui/why-do-chinese-translate-america-as-the-beautiful-country-2cbabf2fef1a
yup
america is now full
which is why they are turning on each other in the fight for liebensraum
The more I read the happier I am with not voting this year, and never again until it is a new system.
I don’t think my vote has ever gone to a winning presidential candidate. I can’t remember whether I wrote in for Donald Duck or Mickey Mouse several elections back, but now I regret even that, as it turns out Disney has been twisted all along.
I had considered writing in Mickey Mouse but remembered Disney is woke.
Surprise! the new system will not allow votes.
what kind of new system do you have in mind
We need to get ownership of the means of production into the hands of the people. How about 90% tax on owned wealth above 10 million dollars.
Will changing the ownership add to the number of fruits and vegetables available in the supermarket? Will it improve the efficiency of my car or increase oil and gas reserves?
It will redirect dividend payments from the suburbs of DC and NYC to the workers, the despicables.
This would be a way of reducing the concentration of wealth that we are now getting. Kamala Harris seems to be trying to move in this direction, but also adding more debt.
I heard her say she wanted go continue with Bidens’s New Way Forward. Same chapter, next verse.
Only a thought. She is younger than seventy, that may be a different point of view.
Dennis L.
Rich people can’t spend their money. Think, they are a possibility to ‘isolate’ freshly printed money to make oil extraction going without too much inflation and with the growth illusion going.
That would just collapse the whole system.
the critical support factor of money is energy
if theres not enough energy to go round
there will never, ever be enough money to go round.
make all the complexity you want about it, in any currency you want, within any political system you want, but there you have it in a nutshell.
we have lived through an era of a surplus energy economic system–that era is now over
nice while it lasted though.
Was at JD dealership yesterday, saw a list $1M combine, no head, absolutely huge. I am not sure how many people could even drive the thing. Maintenance has to be a nightmare.
At about 2:50 cost of Chinese tractors, 20% of JD.
Link is in large part about food prices worldwide.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MiPX0YyC2Nk
US government debt is huge and growing more quickly that the growth of the US economy; this is unsustainable. Got this from idea from Hudson. If growth goes below growth in debt, problems. Would like to see discussion of that idea.
Note Ukraine is mentioned often, they are still producing food. Note this is around 6:00 minutes in. Africa is fine, again cheap Chinese equipment. Ukraine again, sort of a sad joke, how does one plough the ground which has so many shells in it?
It is complicated. it appears deflationary in much of the world except the US. Again, thoughts would be appreciated. My guess, farmland is going down in price.
Dennis L.
I haven’t had a chance to look at this video yet.
I have heard earlier about the absurd cost of John Deere equipment, and the fact that somewhat more reasonable sized Chinese equipment is less expensive.
US and World Debt has been growing far faster than the economy. You can see this from the rising ratio of US government debt to US GDP in Figure 1. If the world economy is growing fast enough, this problem can be hidden. But once the economy stops growing fast enough, or actually starts shrinking (Figure 9) there is a real problem. The Ponzi nature of the whole system becomes apparent.
I am afraid that a lot of things are going down in price.
For now, people are still thinking about the interest rate cut. But that has already been “priced into” stock market prices now. The pattern is “Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.” Once the interest rate cuts go through, expect the stock market to go down.
We are reaching the point that lowering rates will have no effect on unemployment and economic growth. Interest rates have been pushed down since the 80’s to spur economic growth, seeming to have less and less effect over time, needing lower and lower rates to keep growth going. Without cheap fossil fuels, zero interest rates may be uneconomic, because there is nothing to invest in to make profit without adequate cheap energy.
sure, although if your champion gets power, she will mandate the 40 acres and a mule into the Constitution, and a bunch of people who you would rather not associate will pay a visit to your farm to get it for free.
And why not? Since it worked out so well in Rhodesia.
From breadbasket to basket case in one generation.
Apparently Dennis L. has heard about the space program of Zambia, where his champion had resided as a child, and is putting hopes on that
https://youtu.be/QMIgcm2ygTE?si=BBeeQJaQgYcCCYlr
Interesting…. I have been following this guy for a while… it’s the best horse in glue factory . We don’t know when this all crashes but it will eventually.
Brent Johnson has a lot of great things to say
https://youtu.be/K-M3JhRMJ_M?si=adXBxQm–a6JTaut
He says that if there no trouble in the world, the US$ will go lower. Problems arise when the dollar rises too much.
He expects that a hard sell off, starting as soon as the next couple of weeks, is very possible.
Okay, maybe, maybe not. What is the most valuable item one can then possess?
My conclusion: good health, a very high IQ, and an appropriate age, the younger the better. What we are, what we become comes from within, we cannot buy who we want to be.
One also needs a group with a sense of history; a good religion will have that. Combine with a good country(currently farming no matter how great the dirt is pretty tough in Ukraine) run by not incompetent people(don’t expect perfection, leaders not screwing up too much is good enough).
We are biology and biology will find a way.
Dennis L.
“My conclusion: good health, a very high IQ,”
It depends, good for what? excessively high IQ is not good for your genes (neither is excessively low IQ). Like most bell curve traits it is trimmed on both ends.
Clark (in a paper so politically incorrect it is not likely to be published) found that status, some combination of IQ, drive, etc is so strongly inherited that your potential status is mostly determined at birth.
“One also needs a group with a sense of history; a good religion ”
I am not at all sure what one would consider a good religion.
What is a retired dentist doing at a tractor shop?
I have a sizeable farm for my area, crp needs to be cut. Maintenance, maintenance.
Dennis L.
Screw the field crops. Come up north and help me finish hay harvest. We got 6 inches of rainfall in 6 hours last week. Meadows are duck ponds now.
I use several John Deere Balers and vintage 4020 tractors if that is incentive.
Good luck with making hay in all that lot.
I’ve got rice to harvest in another ten days, and a big typhoon is on the way.
And I really hate to get my combine harvester all muddy.
ivanislav
““The society that separates its scholars from its warriors will have its thinking done by cowards and its fighting by fools.”
― Thucydides
I have some very high IQs in the family, with extraordinary performance proven. Perfect for Kulms superhuman class!
All spiked at the first possibility.
The mediocre IQ said: What do I need shiz for? My guts don’t like that…!
I did listen to the video. Crops this year seem to be very good, despite all the things we hear about record heat being a problem. Prices for food outside the US are going down. Requirements for engine efficiency, etc. put in place by the US government tend to raise costs. US farmers can no longer compete on the world market.
(New York Times + others)
What is happening in US with mosquitos?
Is it a way to keep people calm before and also after elections?
When Gates and Fauci are involved, there is always something to be worried about.
(Engineering – 2021) A Company Just Released 150K Genetically Modified Mosquitoes in the United States
Genetically modified mosquitoes were just released in the US for the first time, thanks to a biotech firm funded by Bill Gates.
https://interestingengineering.com/science/bill-gates-backed-firm-to-release-150k-gene-hacked-mosquitoes-in-florida
(New York Times – 2024)
What to Know About the Rare Mosquito-Borne Illness Eastern Equine Encephalitis
The disease has caused one death in New Hampshire and the virus has also been identified in humans in neighboring states, health officials said.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/27/us/massachusetts-eee-mosquito-disease.html
(New York Times)
Fauci Recovering From West Nile Virus Infection
The former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases had been hospitalized and was expected to make a full recovery, a spokeswoman said.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/25/us/fauci-west-nile-virus-hospitalized.html
Real bad this year due to light winter caused by climate change.
First frost will kill them off!
“Solar fuels” — “they’ve” long been working on this, but when will it get useful results? Maybe, kind of like running power grids with such as wind/solar?
https://www.google.com/search?q=solar+fuels&sca_esv=4f737f0b4de0cae7&sca_upv=1&ei=DiDOZvXdDs_D0PEP6rnGuQ4&start=0&sa=N&sstk=AagrsugKxk83G98yIqw2CuggtrgsfGZ786p5bQJ7WmkVwDGhwharXeBmcA02h-4Z3kTUzVLGwk1iIaUkmC3dWscCuS5g3gdAvCbYLowQWDDELoCj4LEHrqMVEVdA5crHt-RHMRR8MPfEr94W6YCaC8K20W9JA2IDyQNdDkxGfCGjzmX1lutERlmrhsvvPToVCg&ved=2ahUKEwj1nIXF65WIAxXPITQIHeqcMec4HhDy0wN6BAgFEAQ&biw=1368&bih=743&dpr=2
I would think that they are not available cheaply now, or we would have heard about them.
The downslope of the Hubbert’s curve . Mr B — 11 minutes read .
https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/downslope-ead9cedd7f1b
Some excerpts:
Yes, the story is rather disturbing, if you think about it.
And the system that’s been created i.e. debt=prosperity means that you have to burn through the stuff even if it means building bridges to nowhere; or in the case of China, building ghost cities and factories. Then tearing them down and building them again.
Not just in China
DeSantis Drops Bombshell on Florida Residents! *Developers Taking Over*
Sign the petition https://floridawildlifefederation.org…
From the comments section .
” We passed the peak, just as predicted, back in 2005. But the real issues is that the cheap oil was already in short supply. We are so addicted to oil that we chase after other things and turn them into oil. The Canadian Tar Sands are a case in point. Their dirty little secret is that the have to add tons of hydrogen to even approximate a hydrocarbon. And where do they get all that hydrogen? From natural gas, a perfectly good and clearer energy source. As one journalist called it, “they turn gold into shit”. Remember all those flares at oil refineries, they used to just burn off the natural gas. It too will be gone in few more years. But we will be drilling baby drilling according to Trump long after the the thermodynamic net loss sets in.
Natural gas is used in the cracking of longer bitumen molecules into shorter molecules. This is where the hydrogen is added. The US has had a big supply of natural gas. In fact, it has been available in recent years at relatively low prices. This has been very helpful to the US in making diesel and jet fuel. Most of the oil produced in the US is quite light. It does not have as good a supply of the long molecules as are needed for diesel and jet fuel. This heavier oil is sometimes used for home heating. Also, for ocean transport.
“Natural gas is used in the cracking of longer bitumen molecules into shorter molecules. This is where the hydrogen is added. ”
I have not worked in a refinery since the 1970s and never worked in one that cracked bitumen. But this does not feel right. Place I worked at processed heavy, high sulfur oil and the cat cracker was a big part of the whole operation.
This is for our Klummie
—
A Russian Elon Musk with 100 biological children: Meet Pavel Durov
By Joshua Berlinger and Anna Chernova, CNN
August 27, 2024
Pavel Durov is a lot of things to a lot of people. Programming prodigy. Billionaire entrepreneur. Kremlin stooge. Free-speech fighter. Biological father to at least 100 kids.
Durov, the elusive founder of Telegram who was detained in France over the weekend, cuts the figure of a mysterious, globe-trotting tech bro with Mark Zuckerberg’s prodigiousness, Jack Dorsey’s bizarre lifestyle habits and Elon Musk’s libertarian streak – plus a similar obsession with pronatalism and fathering children. Durov said in July that he had fathered more than 100 children thanks to sperm donations he had made over the past 15 years.
Worth an estimated $9.15 billion according to Bloomberg and armed with an array of passports and residences, Durov has for a decade lived a life without borders, a man on an often-shirtless journey to secure the freedom of communication from the prying eyes of governments, democratically elected or otherwise.
Suppose he feels more fulfilled in his life story…hope he gets to visit at least once in the childhood to see his offspring…who’s your Daddy?
Now I know we will reach 10 Billion. Statistically speaking…
Human Impact, Extinctions, and the Biodiversity Crisis with Corey Bradshaw
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qJwsJhFK98o
He estimates 100 children because he is a sperm donor, it is full of cases like that in almost all ‘modern’ Countries.
That is just for gossip…
It is more interesting to focus on other aspects.
I don’t know, they do keep records of successful completions of pregnancies in these cases from I recall ..
A few TV sitcom shows made fun of it all..
In either case 10 Billion to the Moon
Throughout history, there have been far more different human mothers than human fathers. This reference says,
If I remember correctly, Peter Turchin observes that limiting men to one wife is a way to reduce population growth.
I heard the story it was a way for more men to have a woman. Believe this was in connection with Christianity.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_views_on_marriage
No sarcasm.
Dennis L.
I suppose that in some sense, it would be more equitable if every man could have a wife. In a society with real abundance and very level incomes, this might make sense.
If there is a high death rate after childbirth, men will need to remarry often, however.
It would be interesting to see DNA analysis of biologic fathers vs provider fathers. Women like “bad boys” and there may be some basis in biology for that sort of thing.
As for equitable, I don’t think biology is very equitable. Biology is because it has worked over many billions of years. It has worked through incredibly harsh periods of earth history.
Some things just are and no amount of social justice can change that. Christianity(I am one) is perhaps a way to mitigate the injustice of biology.
Dennis L.
It’s more that the women need to re-marry, since men are killed in warfare and other difficult enterprises. That’s why more than one ancient culture made it a practice for a widow to marry a husband’s brother. And then just polygamy in general allows for widows to be absorbed into another family unit (today with Industrial Civilization a significant number of women are essentially married to The State).
400 million Hindus slaughtered by Islamists 650-1500 AD?
https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva/posts/pfbid0Honfrx67az8oY5YXDNN2c3gr2SPpCGu99xjvk56haTsMMN6KdTSf5R2o29oFHFWBl?locale=en_GB
might be an idea to check world population in 600 ad
World population was about 200 million in 600 AD.
https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/international-programs/historical-est-worldpop.html
What is crazy that Human population has increase 4-fold since 1930 from 2 to 8 billion. We have been adding 1 billion persons about every 12 or so yrs. since 1975 that was the whole of the human population of 1820. We talk about “Going Green” the best thing you could do for the environment is not have children, but that is politically incorrect, so we have to talk about EV’s.
Well you’ve got 850 years there to work with – they’re looking at a time range, right? – so less than 1M per year.
And a million is a small number in India.
Or was that China?
never let reality get in the way of a good headline Gail
Crap . Typical propaganda by the right wing ruling BJP . The BJP is the equivalent of Bibi’s zionist movement . It’s agenda is return to Hindu culture as in the mythological times and reunification of India as was prior to 1947 . Crazies and only political strategy is rectification of supposed atrocities committed during Mughal times . Ignore
Kamala said 220 million people in the US died from ‘covid’ prior to October 2020:
https://grabien.com/story.php?id=311151
Maybe she meant 220 thousand? At least she didn’t say Alaska has as much oil as Saudi Arabia
It’s complicated..this compliments the post about why things are so difficult to repair
We know that many German cars are over-engineered, but to do a simple repair on this 2018 Audi A4 we had to remove the bumper! Why did it have to be this complicated?!?!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iyWcDa8zFhQ&t=265s
The Car Wizard and his wife are one of my favorite auto channels
He thought it would be an hour job but his computer listed as an almost 6 hour task to replace the radiator.
Seems Audi and BMW are over engineered in the German tradition and he definitely does not recommend purchasing a used model of either brand or expect to pay thousands of $$$ in repairs, which they are known to occur as they reach a certain mileage.
I am afraid a lot of vehicles are over engineered. I remember Tesla was talking about making a much larger exterior body unit, so that there would be fewer body parts to be connected. Add this to our over engineered appliance problem, and the life expectancy of these devices goes down. The amount of materials we need to use to make these devices goes up. Supposed energy savings are overstated.
Another problem is technology changing too fast for people to cope. I work on a computer every day at work, I can tell boomers struggle with technology, I try to be very nice to them though, knowing as a millennial, probably struggle with other things.
“Another problem is technology changing too fast for people to cope.
No kidding! And I found that knowing what is going to happen does not reduce the shock of when it does. I am older than the boomers, worked with computers most of my life, and was up on the singularity. It was still a shock when AI hit the market.
I got news. It’s the same for software writers. They are so totally geeked out they can’t think in the real world. This was especially true with electronic hospital records (EHR) and electronic medical records (EMR.) Basically the software designers had no idea what a doctor really needed to do or how he would open up the program to create a record on each patient.
They threw everything on every page, adding so much clutter and crap that it was a jungle trying to navigate through it. They did this because they weren’t sure what the doctor would require at every step so they threw in everything on every page making it double and triple redundant, adding to the confusion, just in case they missed something. Solve the problem! To all programmers out there: The human brain expends 90% of it’s activity inhibiting needless extraneous stimuli and information so the other 10% can focus on the purpose driven tasks.
I remember reading about fighter pilots and all the gizmos they were to pay attention to while in flight mode and in order to function in a reasonable manner, turned off unnecessary features. The human brain can only deal with so much.
“They did this because they weren’t sure what the doctor would require at every step”
What kind of fairy tale is this? First you consult your users, then you analyse their requirements, then you design a system. You test it first and check with the users that it’s what they want, then get it system-tested to make sure there are no bugs. You present the programs of a system in a way that makes sense to the users, having consulted them first. Been there, done that, in my younger days.
The goal is too rush a product out there and get paid before the customer realizes they have a product that is buggy on their hands.
Testing is a cost that needs to be reduced, in their eyes.
” Been there, done that, in my younger days.” That must have been before NAFTA was signed…so, I am guessing that your younger days wee the 1970s or earlier.
What has NAFTA got to do with it? I’m English. I was active in programming from 1984 to 2006.
After NAFTA was passed , everything became about the rush to the bottom. It’s surprising that computer hardware became more reliable since NAFTA was passed because there is a lot of pressure to cut costs and improve cash flow at every single company.
Why are you blaming the programmers when it is the business leaders who set the expectations?
Some of us remember what early computer technology was like. It was more intuitive than what we have had since y2k.
I imagine Gail would blame this on soaring autism rates.
She blames autism among men for the declining birth rates.
It probably means don’t buy a used VW, Skoda or Seat either. Audi and these three brands are all part of the VW Group and cars the same size but with different labels are likely to be mechanically similar.
” Why did it have to be this complicated”
Well, Avril, the hope is that your bring it to a service center where a licensed mechanic qualified to work on your car precision , who are is in short supply, will charge you a premium to replace the radiator. They will justify the high cost of replacing the radiator by telling you that the energy savings you love so much comes at the cost of a complicated interior that needs to be navigated through carefully to avoid damage to the car.
I am an engineer and I take exception to the term “over engineered”. It these cars are hard to repair then they are under engineered!
Proper engineering takes into account maintainability…bla bla bla.
It is not rocket science…I wish it was…we just do not have good engineering in place. Those expensive to maintain cars are designed that way. In other words, they were engineered to pay off in repair parts and expensive repair jobs at the dealer. It is another “crappy” way of signaling how awesome a car you bought….since it is so hard and expensive to repiair.
I am not an engineer and I respectfully disagree.
It takes extra engineering to make computer devices compact,
to place more and more transistors and stuff in a smaller space so that it becomes more difficult to do any level of Do-It-Yourself repairs without damaging something. It’s difficult to replace the digitizer on smart phones without damaging the digitizer to some extent.
Let’s supposes I’m clumsy.
Let’s look at what Microsoft’s search engine says about non-removable batteries in smartphones, something that was deliberately made difficult to replace.
“Reasons for non-removable batteries in smartphones include123:
Sleek and slim design: Non-removable batteries contribute to a thinner and more stylish phone.
Waterproof and dustproof features: The absence of removable parts improves water and dust resistance.
Better build quality: Non-removable battery phones are often made with high-quality materials.
Enhanced performance and battery life: Integrated batteries can be optimized for better performance.
Discouraging unauthorized repairs: Non-removable batteries make it harder for users to replace batteries themselves.”
High-quality materials means they can sell a product at a higher-price point .Discouraging “unauthorized repairs” forces consumers to pay a fee to replace the battery. It’s the Starbucks, Apple market strategy of convincing the public to pay for a luxury product and a luxury experience.
For most people….owning the latest and greatest doo-dad is another “crappy” way of signaling you are high status enough to own a product that is hard and expensive to repair. The latest doo-dad is often marketed as being stylish, having a high-quality build, with improved performance….and cannot be repaired by anyone except licensed professionals who charges a premium.
From the WSJ:
Can a Closed Nuclear Power Plant From the ’70s Be Brought Back to Life?
Surging demand for electricity and new investment in green energy drove the plan to restart Michigan’s decommissioned Palisades plant. It would be a global first.