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Where could the economy be headed now?
Today, there is great wage and wealth disparity, just as there was in the late 1920s. Recent energy consumption growth has been low, just as it was in the 1920s. A significant difference today is that the debt level of the US government is already at an extraordinarily high level. Adding more debt now is fraught with peril.
Where could the economy go from here? In this post, I look at some historical relationships to understand better where the economy has been and where it could be headed. While debt levels and interest rates are important to the economy, a growing supply of suitable inexpensive energy products is just as important.
At the end, I speculate a little regarding where the US, Canada, and Europe could be headed. Division of current economies into parts could be ahead. While the problems of the late 1920s eventually led to World War II, it may be possible for the parts that are better supplied with energy resources to avoid getting into another major war, at least for a while.
[1] Government regulators have been using interest rates and debt availability for a very long time to try to regulate how the economy operates.
I have chosen to analyze US data because the US is the world’s largest economy. The US is also the holder of the world’s “reserve currency,” allowing demand for the US dollar (really US debt) to stay high because of its demand for use in international trade.
Comparing Figure 1 and Figure 2, it is clear that there is a close relationship between the charts. In particular, the highest interest rate in 1981 on Figure 2 corresponds to the lowest ratio of US government debt to GDP on Figure 1.
Up until 1981, the changes in interest rates were either imposed by market forces (“You can’t borrow that much without paying a higher rate”) or else as part of an attempt by the US Federal Reserve to slow an economy that was growing too fast for the available labor supply. After 1981, the same market dynamics no doubt took place, but the overall attempt at intervention by the US Federal Reserve seems to have been in the direction of speeding up an economy that wasn’t growing as fast as desired.
In Figure 2, the 3-month interest rates correspond fairly closely to government target interest rates. The 10-year interest rates tend to move on their own, perhaps somewhat influenced by Quantitative Easing (QE), in which the US government buys back some of its own debt to try to hold down longer-term interest rates. These longer-term interest rates influence US long-term mortgage interest rates.
Recent monthly data show that 10-year interest rates started rising very quickly after reaching a minimum following the Covid response in early 2020. The lowest 10-year average rates took place in July 2020, and rates started moving up in August 2020.
This suggests to me that market forces play a significant role in 10-year interest rates. As soon as people started borrowing money to remodel or to move to a new suburban location, 10-year interest rates, and likely the related mortgage rates, started to drift upward again. If this observation is correct, the Federal Reserve has some control over interest rates, but it cannot adjust the 10-year interest rates underlying mortgages and other long-term debt by as much as it might like.
The apparent inability of the Federal Reserve to adjust longer-term interest rates to as low a level as it would like is concerning because the US government debt level is very high now (Figure 1). Being forced to pay 4% (or more) on long-term debt that rolls over could create a huge cash flow issue for the US government. More debt could be required simply to pay interest on existing debt!
[2] An analysis of actual growth in US GDP over time shows how successful the changing strategies in Figures 1 and 2 have been.
In the 1930s, the US and much of the rest of the world were in the Great Depression. Interest rates were close to 0% (not shown on Figure 2, but available from the same data). Various versions of the New Deal under President Roosevelt were started in 1933 to 1945. Social Security was added in 1935. Figure 4 shows that these programs temporarily increased GDP, but they did not entirely solve the problem that had been caused by defaulting debt and failing banks.
Entering World War II was a huge success for increasing US GDP (Figure 4). Many more women were added to the workforce, making munitions and taking over jobs that men had held before they were drafted into the army.
After the war was over, the total number of jobs available dropped greatly. Somehow, private sector growth needed to be ramped, using debt of some kind, to provide jobs for the returning soldiers and others left without work. An abundant supply of fossil fuels was available, if debt-based demand could be put into place to pull the economy along. Programs were put into place to get factories running again making goods for the civilian economy. Additional jobs and energy demand were created by upgrading the electrical grid, increasing pipeline infrastructure, and (in 1956) starting work on an interstate highway system.
During the period between 1950 to 2023, the average growth rate of the US economy gradually stepped downward, despite all of the debt-based stimulus that was being added after 1981, as shown in Figure 5.
[3] While growing debt is important for pulling an economy forward, a growing supply of energy is essential to actually produce physical goods and services.
Economic growth involves producing physical goods and services. The laws of physics tell us that energy supplies of the right types, in the right quantities, are necessary to make the goods and services that the physical economy depends upon.
The rate of growth of world energy supply has been stepping down over the years, as the easiest (and cheapest) to extract fossil fuels tend to get extracted first. The average rate of increase of all energy supply (not just fossil fuels) is shown in Figure 6:
Comparing Figures 5 and 6, we can see that average annual US GDP growth approximately matched growth in world energy supplies in the first two periods: 1950-1970 and 1971-1980.
In the period 1981-2007, average US GDP growth (of 3.2%) soared above world energy consumption growth (of 2.1%). I would attribute this primarily to outsourcing a significant share of the US’s industrial production as the economy shifted to becoming more of a service economy. There were multiple advantages to moving to a service economy. US oil supply had become restricted, and a service economy would use less oil. Also, the costs of imported goods would be much lower than those made in the US for several reasons, including more efficient newly built factories, lower-wage workers, and the use of inexpensive coal as a fuel instead of oil.
The encouragement of increased use of “leverage” under Ronald Reagan in the US and Margaret Thatcher in the UK no doubt added to the effect of using more debt shown in Figure 1. The US government started borrowing more money, rather than increasing taxes. Businesses became larger and more complex. International trade started playing a larger role.
Recent low growth in energy supplies has created an economic problem that added debt has only partially been able to hide. (In the latest period (2008-2023), both US average GDP growth (at 1.8%) and world energy consumption growth (at 1.5%) were very low.) Figure 1 shows that the US added huge amounts of debt, both after the 2008 financial crisis, and at the time of the Covid response in 2020. If it weren’t for these huge debt infusions, US GDP growth would no doubt have been much lower. GDP counts the quantity of goods and services produced, not whether added debt has been used to manufacture these goods, or whether customers have used debt to purchase these goods.
[4] In some ways, the world economy today is like the economy of the 1920s.
The 1920s were characterized by both the rising use of debt (especially consumer credit), and wide wage and wealth disparities. This was a time of innovation. Some farmers had modern new equipment that greatly enhanced efficiency, while most farmers could not afford this equipment.
Figure 7 shows a pattern of wage disparity that operates in precisely the opposite direction from the interest rate pattern shown in Figure 2. The lower the interest rates, the more the concentration of wealth among a very small portion of the population. The higher the interest rates, the more evenly wage and wealth is divided.
A comparison of Figure 7 with Figure 6 and Figure 5 shows that (at least for the years since 1950), faster energy consumption growth seems to lead to faster economic growth. With faster economic growth, the economy can support higher interest rates and higher wages for lower-paid workers. There is less push for “complexity” to try to replace workers with machines.
When energy consumption growth is low, the economy tends to grow more slowly. The interest rates that corporations and individuals can afford to pay are relatively low. With low interest rates, asset prices of all kinds soar because monthly payments to buy these assets fall. The prices of stocks, bonds, homes, and farms tend to soar. The already rich become richer and richer, as the poor are increasingly squeezed out of the economy.
Physicist Francois Roddier has said that physics dictates the outcome of widely diverging incomes when energy supply is low. It takes much less energy to supply an economy of a few rich people and many poor people than it takes to support an economy with relatively equal incomes. The vast majority of the supposed wealth of the rich exists as promises that can only be fulfilled in the future if there is enough energy of the right kinds to fulfill these promises. Their promised future wealth does not affect today’s energy use. While the energy use of rich people is somewhat higher than that of poor people, much of the difference disappears when a person considers the fact that much of their wealth is essentially “paper wealth” that may or may not actually be present as the future actually unfolds.
Both the 1920s and the latest period (2008-2023) are very low energy-growth periods. The fact that (2008-2023) is a low energy growth period (at 1.5% per year) can be seen on Figure 6. Energy supply was growing even slightly more slowly in the 1920s (based on data from Vaclav Smil’s Energy Transitions). Population was growing by 1.1% per year in both the 1920s and in the latest period (2008-2023.) Net energy consumption per capita growth was slightly negative (-0.1%) in the 1920s and only a very small positive percentage (0.4%) in the 2008-2023 period. Per capita consumption had been growing much more quickly between 1950 and 1980.
[5] The economy becomes very fragile when the growth of energy supply is low, compared to the growth of the world’s population.
Hidden beneath the surface is the problem that there is not enough energy to go around. This problem doesn’t manifest itself in high prices; it manifests itself in unusually large wage disparities. Very rich individuals (such as Bill Gates and Elon Musk) gain excessive influence. Special interests and their drive for profits also become important. At times, this drive for profits can come ahead of the well-being of citizens.
Citizens become more quarrelsome. Differences between and within political parties become greater. Political candidates no longer treat other candidates with the respect we would have expected in the past. The problem is, in some sense, the problem of a game of musical chairs.
Initially, the game has as many players as chairs. The players walk around the outside of the group of chairs as the music plays. In each round, one chair is removed and the players must scramble for the remaining chairs. The person who does not get a chair is eliminated from the game.
[6] It seems to me that major parts of the world economy are transitioning from a growth mode to a mode of shrinkage.
Figure 9 gives a representation of how the world’s growing economy can be visualized, and how it may change in the future.
The fact that growth in the consumption of fossil fuel energy supplies has been retreating to lower levels should be of concern (Figure 6). At some point, the world economy will be in a situation in which the amount of fossil fuels we can extract is falling. While we have some add-ons to the fossil fuel system (including hydroelectric, nuclear, wind, and solar), they are all manufactured using the fossil fuel system and repaired using the fossil fuel system. These add-ons would stop producing not long after the fossil fuel system stops producing. They need fossil fuels to make replacement parts, among other problems.
The amount of growth in energy supply determines the growth in physical goods and services that can be produced. In periods of rapid growth, borrowing from the future, even at a high interest rate, makes sense. In periods of low growth, only loans with a very low interest rate are feasible. When the economy is shrinking, very few investments can repay loans requiring interest.
Needless to say, repaying debt with interest becomes much more difficult in a shrinking economy. In the US, our underlying problem is that since 1981, the US’s financial policy has been “throw every tool in the tool box” at stimulating the economy. We are now running out of tools to stimulate the economy to grow faster. Adding more debt isn’t likely to work very well, or for very long.
At this point, the many government-funded investments aimed at providing green energy and offering transportation by electricity are not paying back well. Citizens are repeatedly being told that there is a need to move away from fossil fuels to prevent climate change. But world CO2 emissions continue to rise. They simply moved to a different part of the world.
[7] What does history since 1920 say may be ahead?
It is hard to see that things will turn out well, but we do know that historical civilizations have collapsed over a period of many years. We can hope that if we are facing the collapse of at least part of the world’s economy, this collapse will also be slow. Some intermediate steps along the line likely include the following:
(a) Stock market collapses. After excessive speculation in the stock market in the late 1920s, the stock market collapsed on October 29, 1929, starting the Great Depression. Another major crash occurred in 2008, during the Great Recession. Both of these speculative bubbles seem to have been fueled by low short-term interest rates.
(b) Drops in the prices of homes, farms, and other assets. The Great Depression is noted for major drops in the prices of farms. The Great Recession is known for major drops in the prices of homes. We are now facing a situation with far too much Commercial Real Estate. Its price logically should fall. Farmers are also having difficulty because wholesale food prices are too low relative to the various costs involved, including interest payments relating to equipment purchases and mortgages. The problem is especially acute if farm property has been purchased at currently inflated prices. The prices of farms logically should fall, also.
(c) Debt defaults, related to asset price drops. Banks, insurance companies, pension plans and many individuals owning bonds will be badly affected if defaults on loans or bonds start increasing. (In fact, even if the market interest rates simply rise, the carrying value on financial statements is likely to fall.) If commercial real estate or a farm is sold and the sales price is less than the outstanding debt, the bank issuing the loan will be left with a loss. This debt is often resold, with credit rating agencies falling short in indicating how risky the debt really is.
(d) Failing banks, failing insurance companies, and failing pension plans. Even bankrupt governments defaulting on their loans.
With failing banks, there is less money in circulation. The tendency is for commodity prices to fall very low, putting farmers in worse financial shape than before. They cut back on production. Food production and transport use considerable amounts of oil. Reduced food production leads to less need for oil consumption and thus, falling oil prices. With low oil prices, production tends to fall.
(e) If a government survives, it may try to issue much more debt-based money to try to raise prices. This might work if the country is able to produce all goods locally. But the huge amount of new money (and debt) will not be honored by other countries. The result is likely to be hyperinflation, and still no goods to buy.
(f) Persecution of the wealthier people blamed for society’s problems. If people are poor, and there aren’t enough goods to go around, there is a tendency to find someone to blame for the problem. In Europe, prior to World War II, the Nazis persecuted the Jews. The Jews were often rich and worked in finance or the jewelry business.
(g) War. War gives the possibility of obtaining resources elsewhere. Figure 4 shows that going to war can greatly ramp up GDP. It is a way of putting laid-off workers back to work. It is an age-old solution to not-enough-resources-to-go-around.
[8] Can any political approach put off the bad impacts suggested in Section [7] above?
A country that can provide complete supply chains based on its own resources, completely within its own borders can be somewhat insulated from these problems, as long as its resources are adequate for its population. I don’t think that any of the Advanced Countries (members of the OECD, which is similar to the US and its allies) can do that today. The US is closer to this ideal than Europe, but it is still a long way away. The central and southern part of the US, which is where Donald Trump’s support is strong, is closer to this ideal than elsewhere.
Trump is advocating adding tariffs on imported goods. Such tariffs would work in the direction of independence from China, India, and other industrialized nations. Trump also seems to advocate staying out of wars, wherever possible. If an area is doing well in terms of energy supply (including food supply), this would be a good strategy.
Kamala Harris is advocating capping today’s food prices. This would please city-dwellers, but it would encourage farmers to quit farming. Capping today’s food prices would also discourage the importation of food from elsewhere, leaving many empty shelves in grocery stores. Indirectly, it would also have an adverse impact on the world’s oil production and the quantity of food grown elsewhere.
Giving more money to poor people would almost certainly lead to more government debt. If countries in Europe were to do this, it would almost certainly devalue their currencies. They would find it harder to import goods from anywhere else in the world.
In fact, the US would likely also encounter difficulty in importing as many goods from elsewhere, if it chooses to give more money to poor people (and fund this generosity through more debt). China and Russia would have even more motivation to abandon the US dollar for trading purposes than they do today. The US, Europe, and other Advanced Economies would increasingly find imported goods unavailable.
Wind, solar, and electric vehicles are not fixing the economy now. Adding more debt to subsidize these efforts would likely have the same bad effects as adding more debt to subsidize poor people.
[9] A guess as to what could be ahead for the US, Canada, and Europe.
Donald Trump is suggesting tariffs and other policies that might be helpful for the parts of the US, Canada, and Mexico that think they might have enough resources to more or less get along on their own in the near future. This includes much of the central and southern part of the US. Central Canada would fit into this pattern, as well. Mexico is connected by pipeline to this area, too. At least in the US, Trump is favored in these areas.
In the highly populated areas along both US coasts, the debt-based policies of Kamala Harris will seem more reasonable because these sections have limited resources to rely on, but lots of population. The only solution they can imagine is more debt. I expect that Europe and the coasts of Canada will follow Kamala Harris’s strategies, but with their own leaders.
I can imagine a scenario in which after the US election, the US will break apart into two sections: a Trump section in the center of the US, and a Harris portion consisting mostly of the two coasts, and perhaps a few northern states. The Trump section will band together with Central Canada and Mexico and try to keep operating for some years longer. The Harris portion will join together with the coasts of Canada and most of Europe to get into war with Russia and China. The Harris portion will issue lots more debt. The Harris group will forget that their areas cannot really make many armaments without a huge amount of international trade. As a result, the Harris group will have great difficulty in being successful at war.
Rising silver prices will, in theory, incentivize more production. But the costs of extraction are rising sharply.
https://www.mining.com/blunder-miners-are-dumping-every-single-ounce-they-produce/
Metals markets analyst Steve St. Angelo estimates that in the first half of 2024, the total weighted average of cost of production among the leading silver miners rose to at least $26 per ounce. More marginal, higher-cost operators are facing the prospect of selling their product at a loss even with silver fetching $30 per ounce.
The silver price tends to find major support at its average all-in sustaining cost of production at any given time. That figure is likely to trend higher, possibly much higher, in the future.
In estimating the costs mining companies will face in the future to replace the metals they are selling today, we cannot simply extrapolate from their historic operating costs.
Operating an existing mine is one thing. Having to undertake the costs associated with exploring for new deposits and developing new mines is quite another.
A mine is by its nature a depreciating asset. The economic value of its extractable deposits will eventually be exhausted, and the mine abandoned.
New mines must be developed in order to keep the market supplied with metals. That takes a lot of capital – and time.
S&P Global estimates that it takes an average of 20.8 years worldwide to develop a new gold mine.
The time-frame is even longer for copper, nickel, and other base metals – which often produce silver as a byproduct.
Regulatory hurdles can delay viable projects for years – or shelve them indefinitely.
Thanks to stifling layers of red tape in the United States in particular, as noted by S&P Global, “The US has the second longest mine development times in the world, at almost 29 years on average from first discovery to first production.”
To say that it is difficult to get a new mine up and running is an understatement. Per the Colorado School of Mines, only 1 in 750 projects makes it.
Importantly, the sunk costs associated with the extraordinary number of failed projects aren’t included in the mining industry’s estimated annual production costs.
In other words, the true cost of newly mined gold and silver and gold ounces is substantially higher than anyone ever reports.
Of course, when we start mining in outer space it will be a new frontier to exploit
Unfortunately, I can believe what this article is saying about the difficulty of ramping up silver production. This article from 2021 talks about the importance of silver for the “New Energy Era.”
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/silver-series-new-energy-in-solar-and-ev/
Solar panels and electric vehicles especially use silver. Biomedical devices use silver. Phones and computers use silver. Nuclear power is said to require silver.
The article say,
“During bouts of bubonic plague in Europe, children of wealthy families sucked on silver spoons to preserve their health, which gave birth to the phrase “born with a silver spoon in your mouth.””
If it is almost impossible to ramp up silver production, we have a problem in all areas of technology, especially EVs and solar panels.
Not sarcastic, not being flip.
Ag, make that two cubic miles along with one cubic mile of Pt.
Starship launches soon if FAA agrees; TINA.
You have it, the earth is out of useable stuff, time to look up.
Dennis L.
It is better to immerse yourself in delusion when everything is falling down.
Fentanyl too dear. Cubic miles are free.
Sounds like a plan, Dennis, let’s get Boeing Starship on board…Boeing will put it all together and make it so
Corporations are so competent and manage complex operations, safety first, maximize profits second
“Ag, make that two cubic miles along with one cubic mile of Pt.”
Excuse me for taking this seriously, but it set me to wondering.
Silver has an even lower cosmic abundance than platinum. In addition it is only a moderately siderophile (iron loving) element. Still, it might be twice as abundant as gold. I gave most of my attention to getting the iron and nickel out partly because 35% nickel iron alloy is Invar, which would make excellent structure for power satellites. There is more iron than you need for the alloy. The rest might be used as reaction mass to get products to the Earth or an orbit around the Earth.
Most the dust remaining after taking out the iron and nickel is cobalt. I don’t know if it would be worth returning to Earth.
Most silver mined is a by product of gold, copper, zinc and lead mining, with the mines set up to run a certain throughput tonnage of ore per day. There is no ramping up any of these mines..
I’d also suggest the profitable silver mines are also running at capacity already, as that is the most efficient way to run any mine..
Higher prices might bring more production in a few years, if lucky, with the higher prices making some currently uneconomic deposits, economically viable, but it takes prolonged higher prices relative to everything else to do that.
If costs go up 50% but silver prices only go up 30%, then no new mine production.
Unemployment in India .
The 4th largest economy in the world . World superpower?? 46000 graduates apply for 6000 jobs of road sweepers. Contractual job (no pension, insurance, security etc), the salary is Euro 6 (six) per day.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/chandigarh-news/unemployment-in-haryana-over-45-000-grads-post-graduates-apply-for-sweeper-s-job-101725304462888.html
It is hard to wrap our minds around the idea of being a road sweeper at a salary of 6 euros per day being a good job!
Well, getting post graduate degree in History ain’t going to be in big demand, unless going in Law..
Sirsa resident, Rachana Devi, 29, a graduate in nursery teachers training and currently doing post-graduation in history from Rajasthan says she has been trying to get a meaningful job for the last four years. “There are no jobs. I am sitting idle at home. So, I applied for a sweeper’s job knowing fully well what it entailed,’’ she says.
Sorry, but now a days with a degree even in the USA with those ain’t going to pay a livable wage
Zerohedge is saying that the US government’s estimate of jobs openings (JOLTS) is showing especially low growth.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/catastrophic-jolt-job-openings-crater-lowest-2021-data-manipulation-fails
Government job openings are supposedly holding up a little better than private job openings, if we believe the numbers. Construction jobs are especially disappearing. The article notes,
“in July the number of job openings to unemployed dropped to just 1.07, a plunge from the June print of 1.16, the lowest level since May 2021 and now officially below pre-covid levels.”
There seems to always be a problem in most job opening numbers with “phantom” openings, in which a job which is supposedly open, isn’t really available. Perhaps the funding wasn’t approved. So, the 1.07 ratio could very well be far less than 1.00. And certainly, the number of high paying jobs for college grads could be way too low, even more than the overall ratio.
“Well, getting post graduate degree in History ain’t going to be in big demand, unless going in Law..”
That a shame. It is amazing how much is known about the bronze age collapse and the aftermath, none of which we would know without historians.
The Powers That Be have decided, “This time is different.” There is no need to teach the lessons from the past. Even preaching about what the Old Testament says is no longer important.
“The Powers That Be have decided, “This time is different.” There is no need to teach the lessons from the past. Even preaching about what the Old Testament says is no longer important.”
You know what I think of TPTB, but this time it really is different. High tech has advance to the point that humans are not the only players.
The historians of that period take what is in the Old Testament seriously. Some of it gets verified and some seems to be myth.
like the myth that AI is goinf to become a purposeful physical entity.
(“I’ll be back”)
@Keith
Who are the other players? Siriusians? Betelgeusians?
“other players? ”
Our offspring, the AIs.
They are not all that smart yet, but neither is a young child. Give them another few years.
The problem is information, most likely isn’t much more than Cline presented.
Haven’t had time read my copy of his follow on. Worth the time?
Dennis L.
“Haven’t had time read my copy of his follow on. Worth the time?”
It reads ok if you can skip all the unpronounceable names. I think he should have talked more about the drought, but that thread runs though most of it.
It’s not the only such case in human history.
When I went to High School, I am 36 years old, they told everyone who could fog a mirror to go to college, I know a lot of them could barely handle high school and their parents didn’t have the money, I felt they set them up to fail. It was all about saying “95 percent of our graduates go to college” when most of them couldn’t make it a semester. I am not against going to college if you have brains, but unless you are in the top third of your graduating class, you a best at getting a job.
I think that has been a very popular approach everywhere in the US. Vocational classes have been de-emphasized. Go to college; everyone can supposedly have a high-paying career. This doesn’t really work. It mostly adds debt and demand for college classes.
Artemis 3 astronauts will walk on the moon with 4G-equipped spacesuits
“When NASA’s Artemis 3 crewed mission lands on the lunar surface a few years from now, the first astronauts to walk on the moon since the Apollo age will be able to take advantage of something their antecedents could not: cellular network technology.
Artemis 3’s astronauts will wear spacesuits equipped with 4G connectivity — the same 4G that makes up the majority of Earth’s mobile phone networks today. The spacesuits, Axiom Space’s AxEMU models, will be able to connect to a 4G network designed by Nokia. Astronauts can use the network to perform feats like broadcasting high-definition video.
The AxEMU spacesuits, then, will be able to connect to the base station. They won’t have a smartphone’s touchscreen or interface, but they will be able to stream high-definition video or transmit large volumes of scientific data back to the base station — and, then, by extension, back to Earth.”
https://www.space.com/artemis-3-moon-spacesuits-nokia-4g
I have doubts that this will really take place. Artemis II will take place “no earlier than September 2025.”
https://www.nasa.gov/mission/artemis-ii/
I have no idea about Artemis III. People like to write articles about it, however.
The only way to maintain civilization until some kind of turnaround might be achieved is to arrest it, and return back to a 18th century style of social control where only the privileged have any rights and the rest treated by cattle.
that means the end of freedom for the bottom 90% – 99%.
If there is any other way, tell me. I find it infinitely preferable to Fast Eddy’s UEP.
Fast Eddy has no children, like Ayn Rand, and he doesn’t seem to like them anyways so he does not care if humanity dies.
I have no children as well but unlikely him I do care about civilization so I do not wish for the end of civilization.
It is like a hail mary plan to maintain what we have. I don’t know whether it will succeed or not but compared to what a lot of people are saying my plan has a good chance of succeeding.
https://youtu.be/zQBxSB4HDAc?si=EEe1RbwtrADsVjW6
Streets of Madras, Tamil Nadu (I don’t give a crap about whatever the Tamils call it themselves)
Such videos are made in areas where foreign tourists feel at least somewhat safe. In other words more sanitized than the real stuff.
My plan is to avoid such fate.
(Reuters + The New Statesman)
In my view, it is probable Zelensky’s time is running out, but when he is replaced, nothing will change.
It is better that we prepare ourselves for no change in the ‘wartime economy’ that we have entered.
Kuleba could be the next one and he is likely to be even more determined to wage war against Russia.
An article about the situation and an interview to him:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-foreign-minister-tenders-resignation-parliament-speaker-says-2024-09-04/
Dmytro Kuleba:
“So the question is not what the presidency of Trump may look like. The question we’re facing is how to use his presidency in the interest of Ukraine.”
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/ukraine/2024/06/dmytro-kuleba-interview-ukraine-china-we-know-much-more-than-weve-said
The Ukrainians, by any conceivable metric, are the new Palestinians. That is what happens when you fall in the hands of a particular ethnic group.
On the contrary, it is a completely different story.
– If they had not followed Nato ambitions, they would still leave quietly in their territory, in fact they had a territory…
They could even be inside EU and be outside Nato, like Austria for instance.
Palestinans, on the contrary, since 1948, need to get out of the area to make rooms to Israeli people.
– the Palestinians still alive are trapped in a little territory and nobody help them, while Ukraine receive billions of Euro and Dollars in helps of all kind, arms, weapons, food, investments, payment of salaries, reconstructions.
you are right. They only have themselves to blame, unlike the Palestinians.
Hi drb,
Do you have any updates on the Russian visas for fleeing westerners?
They will publish the list of qualifying countries soon. If you are in the EU or five eyes you are sure to qualify.
That is likely a good analogy.
There may be energy issues with both.
The Palestinians seem to be key to an offshore natural gas field. The Ukrainians have good farmland besides natural gas resources.
For Ukraine I think that it may be correct, there surely resources at stake, but for Palestinians the gas field is only a tiny part of the problem, the main point is that they need to emigrate, die or dissolve to make room to Israeli.
Not enough resources to go around!
The Ukrainians are a perfect example of a population, that reduces itself.
https://21stcenturywire.com/2024/08/31/austrian-court-case-reveals-more-evidence-of-biden-and-democrat-corruption-in-ukraine/
This is a long article about Biden and other corruption in Ukraine. An example of what is says is the following:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/putin-will-never-give-ukraine
Foreign Affairs journal informs readers of the security state policies and floats trial balloons to build consensus for new policy. I recommend the whole article, but especially these two sections that describe a play-for-time-and-rebuild-and-rearm strategy for Ukraine:
* THIS IS HOW IT ENDS
* PLAYING FOR TIME
These quotes show the US is not backing off of its objectives, but merely changing tact:
>> Given those risks, the best approach for Washington is to play the long game and wait for Putin to leave. It’s possible he may step down voluntarily or be pushed out; what is certain is that, at some point, he will die. Only once he is no longer in power can the real work of permanently resolving the war in Ukraine start.
>> When the Kursk offensive dissipates and Kyiv manages to arrest Russia’s progress in Donetsk, Washington should also support a cease-fire that halts the fighting. […] A cease-fire would allow Ukraine to consolidate its defenses and train more soldiers, and the West could hedge its bets by continuing to supply the country with weapons.
I try to look at things in a neutral way.
Putin or not Putin, when he will be out of power, it will be in the hands of Russian people to understand that if they let NATO coalition to expand its offensive power in Ukraine, it will be the end of Russia, like if China would build an offensive power and government in Mexico, directed against US and also will al the rest of south America, positioned against US, like Europe now is against Russia.
I don’t think that NATO has the weapons to win. Antagonizing Putin with attacks within Russia is asking for problems. Waiting for Putin to die is hardly the way to go; whether his death changes anything is not clear. Putin seems to be nowhere near death.
“Putin seems to be nowhere near death.”
Surely he’s already dead. The media have told us on multiple occasions and for many years, that he’s close to death and given the variety of diseases and ailments they have bestowed upon him, your skirting the realms of conspiracy with the above statement.
It’s like saying that Russia is winning in Ukraine. Any sane person that keeps informed and up to date, from the media that never lies, knows that from the start Russia was going to run out of shells, missiles and everything else within a month or two (You’ll have to ask the people that gave us “the rules based order” what 2 months mean under their rules).
Let’s look at the words of Admiral Sir Antony David Radakin, KCB, ADC Chief of the Defence Staff, the head of the British Armed Forces, talking in December 2022.
“So, let me tell Putin tonight what his own generals and ministers are probably afraid to say,” the military chief said. “Russia faces a critical shortage of artillery munitions. This means that their ability to conduct successful offensive ground operations is rapidly diminishing.
“There is no mystery as to why this is the case. Putin planned for a 30-day war, but the Russian guns have now been firing for almost 300 days. The cupboard is bare. Morally, conceptually and physically, Putin’s forces are running low.”
I’ve just tried a search for “Russia run out of shells in 2 months” and today the top 3 titles(where most people never venture past) I get tell me
“Russia appears on track to produce nearly three times more artillery munitions than the US and Europe”
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html
“After nearly two years of high-intensity conflict, both sides are running out of ammunition”
https://news.sky.com/story/russia-and-ukraine-are-running-out-of-munitions-but-one-has-a-significant-advantage-sean-bell-13042930
“Russia is struggling to provide ammunition and weapons for its war in Ukraine, according to Western officials”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68364924
Winning, drawing and losing at the same time is quite some feat.
To follow western media, is to be kept in a perpetual state of not knowing ones arse from ones elbow and so left susceptible to any tale, no matter how tall or devoid of real world evidence.
This one’s for wee Alice.
Oliver’s Army by Elvis Costello
The only proper thing to do for the Unionists in Ulster is dump all of them to the sea.
Are you a Catholic, Mr. Kulamity? Anyway, I think that anyone whose name starts with “ku” or “kh” or ends with a “q” should be sent to a concentration camp. 😉
And this is for the rest of us.
Everybody is on their knees
Except the Russians and the Chinese
There was a post by FE and I replied to it. Then both were gone????
Probably for the best. He has his own site now: https://fasteddynz.substack.com/
or maybe the raype word gets cennsorred.
Yes, use the word canola, like the canadians do.
I see what you mean. I wasn’t involved in these disappearing posts at all. If his post disappeared, and you responded to it, I expect that the disappearance of his post would cause your comment to disappear.
I am not going to waste too much time writing here but I wanted to congratulate Gail in creating an environment where absolutely nothing has been learned over more than 10 years. That is an impressive achievement!
People here are very careful never to mention the dreaded word “conspiracy” (Gail has trained you well with censorship or are you people just meat robots incapable of learning?)
Btw, I totally understand the obsession with AI – when you are incapable of assimilating any new information, even a stupid algorithm like AI looks like magic!
Here are some news from the real world:
– The war in Russia is fake. The deaths are real but the oligarchs on both sides work together to kill the peasants and make billions. Russia has increased the oil and gas exports this year, the so-called sanctions are only made for TV. So any discussion that does not starts with this obvious fact is just fantasy.
– The genocide in Gaza may or may not be real but the zionist (not jewish!) control of media, governments of the world and the US military is basically complete. IDK which is the tail and which is the dog, but obviously ALL politicians and everybody famous is either blackmailed (think Epstein pedophilia blackmail) or simply bought and sold. The few that are not, are quickly found dead (and not fake shot at with a 22LR)
Read statistics about the percentage of so-called jewish presidents of the countries in the world, percentage of spouses of politicians in US (90%!) etc.
BTW to clarify – I think “jewish” is used as a simple identifier for zionist here, none of the famous people calling themselves jews are semites or middle-eastern but they are all evil zionists.
– Finally almost everything you see or hear is manufactured propaganda. From psyops (like most “accidents” or shootings) to history (lost Apollo plans?), to so-called education (pregnant men everyone?) – everything taught to you is not even wrong.
So, in conclusion, to come here and see people “analyzing” the news without ever questioning anything, despite the Coflu psyop – I have to say, it brings a tear to my eye and vomit in my mouth.
Whatever happens, remember: all of you have had the time to figure out the world and instead you come here to this limited hangout to listen to nazis (you know who you are) praising our leaders and Gail censoring everyone that points out facts.
Good night and good luck to any human among you.
all old news,
we were told here on ofw that the ukrainian fighters were all crisis actors.
some of us can spot BS artists a mile away.—never a shortage of them on ofw
and hunting dogs always need instruction on what to do next.
The Russians are coming.
As sad new Zealand collapses the world’s worst airline air new zealand has more problems. Qualified engineers are leaving in droves to Australia where they can live civilised lives free from the continual threat of violence in their country of birth.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/corrections/526752/crews-respond-to-airplane-engine-fire-at-wellington-airport
The energy problem continues to get worse as the largest manufacturers close down in the face of quadrupled electricity prices.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/526977/mill-closures-rescueruapehu-campaign-launched-to-save-hundreds-of-jobs
The medical system is falling apart as GPs leave for first world countries although their qualifications are laughed at in countries such as the USA.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/gps-warn-of-primary-care-collapse-in-new-zealand-call-for-urgent-government-action/IMXU5JUVZRGP7IUWHVYGNBZMDQ/
Suicide rates and crimes of violence are escalating as the left nears its goal of Venezuela-ing the country.
The Donkey was last seen at the DNC imparting her knowledge of how to eviscerate a country.
Weep for this sad destroyed land and look for it only now in books. ’twas a fair land in its time …
Oh, dear!
We haven’t heard from Fast Eddy recently, either. He probably had the good sense to leave New Zealand.
Come back Fast Eddy. We miss you.
It looks to me as if the Fast Eddy comment is from the well-known Fast Eddy.
Fast Eddy exited the doomed NZ in Feb… having sold the goat ranch… and withdrawn every last cent from the soon to be failed state.
It’s a tossup as to what brings me more SCHAD… watching as influencers and celebs drop dead from the Rat Juice… or tracking NZ’s rapid descent into bowels of hell.
Which reminds me… I must make time to fire a final parting shot at Adrian the f789boy cop … to update him on my status that involves no longer contributing to his salary.
If I am missing anything feel free to drop the ‘good news’ here.. and make my day
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/nz-is-running-out-of-gas-literally
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/the-chinese-economy-is-crumbling
Now that China is open to the world who needs HK? HK and NZ are both just sad reminders of English world [g]rape.
“If I am missing anything…”
oh you are, as always.
hope you prosper 20+ years in Oz.
hahahahaha.
F.E . believes that Laser reflectors magically appeared on the moon!
Time, date and mission number!
Otherwise B/S!
Great you are fine! Greetings to Mrs Fast!
Thanks for the links!
These are very fine posts you linked to. In fact, I subscribed to your website. I particularly liked the detail you were able to provide on what is going wrong with respect New Zealand’s natural gas situation.
You have many worthwhile insights to offer. Setting up your own website was a good idea.
Sri Lanka is apparently still a disaster.
beware smaller weaker island countries.
move to USA or Canada or Australia.
if you can, good luck!
especially the younger guys in the UK.
Sri Lanka is a mess because of the Tamils.
And some factions in USA wants to put a Tamil to be the Commander in Chief.
She will make USA like Sri Lanka.
I heard, it is more the alcohol?
Even if some god grants Dennis L’s wishes of a cubic mi of PT, it won’t help most of today’s denizens at all. Not at all.
All the gains will be concentrated into the hands of the top.
Without Willem of Orange , Spain would still have monopolized the list of billionaires. Why Spain decided to waste everything to keep Holland, which was far away, is another question which I won’t go too far but today’s winners are unlikely to make the same mistakes.
Recently I have said a few times that there will be no mobility, and about 90-99% of today’s population will face a lifetime of toil, deprivation and penury until they drop dead, with the worthies not giving a crap of their plight.
However that is much more sustainable than the current system which creates too much waste.
Keeping the living status very low for today’s unnecessariats, with no way to redress it, does help Civilization and conserves valuable resources for those who deserve to use it, and that arrangement will be eternal.
Everything to the top, nothing to the rest, sustains civilization for the longest time and more misery for the poor and the middle class should be encouraged.
Most of us wouldn’t really like such a situation, however.
From a moral consequentialist point of view, if the alternative is anarchy and a 20,000 year return to the jungle and extinction then even a 1 in million chance at having self-directed evolution and having energy manipulation capabilities sounds infinitely better.
“having self-directed evolution ”
I suppose that humans have started to do that, messing with their own genes.
But we don’t have a historical example yet. What Clark did was to point out an example of natural selection. That happened because the UK for a long time was a stable agrarian society. The successful strategy was to work your butt off, become rich, and be sure your kids didn’t starve. That went on until about 1800 when the income per capita went up (or the cost of goods came down) to where the poor could afford food. And transport from distance locations came down.
And it is not happening fast enough. It takes 3 generations to see the effects of genetic manipulation and we don’t have 3 generations.
Greg Clark stops his research around 1800 since it is around that time that his ancestors moved to USA, but the evolutionary processes went on till 1914.
“And it is not happening fast enough. It takes 3 generations to see the effects of genetic manipulation and we don’t have 3 generations.”
What would you select for? And how?
“Greg Clark stops his research around 1800 since it is around that time that his ancestors moved to USA, but the evolutionary processes went on till 1914.”
Evolution goes on all the time. However https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gregory_Clark_(economist)
“Clark, whose grandfathers were migrants to Scotland from Ireland, was born in Bellshill, Scotland. ”
As I recall, Clark found that the genetic advantage of the wealthy faded out about 1800 as the economy took off and famines ended.
@Keith
Although the pressure for acute starvation had abated, social mores dictated natural selection heavily, as seen in Thomas Hardy’s observations of Wessex in late Victorian era.
There were little mercy on the poor, and Dickensian conditions for the masses provided a huge pressure against the lower classes.
“There were little mercy on the poor, and Dickensian conditions for the masses provided a huge pressure against the lower classes.”
No doubt. But unlike earlier times, the children of the poor survived better than they had. Perhaps not as well as the children of the wealthy, but there was no longer such a big gap.
Clark makes the case that because of “downward social mobility” the whole population’s psychological characteristics became more like the wealthy in attitudes toward long working hours and delayed gratification.
It’s not a long article.
Indeed, in a utilitarian sense my theories are superior to anything else being floated around.
It is not 20,000 year return, but more likely 20,000,000 years since the easily extractable resources are all gone.
To make gadgets for people who are unlikely to contribute anything to civilization.
It took 110 years to learn that USA f’ked up by trying to export its strange ideology to the rest of the world.
What an amazing swing. Brent is down nearly 5% on the day right now.
https://oilprice.com/
NVIDIA down 10% on the day.
The headline on the WSJ from this morning was, Americans Are Really, Really Bullish on Stocks
The surging stock market has minted millionaires and helped send many Americans’ net worth sharply higher. Many are betting that the rally has more room to run.
Whenever people are betting that it will go higher is probably a sign that it is running out of room.
Gail did say that that would go down so well done Gail
I see that Nvidia is being pushed down further after close:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/adding-insult-margin-calls-nvidia-receives-doj-subpoena-making-record-price-drop-even-worse
(Reuters)
Nigeria’s state-oil firm said it is facing financial strain making it unable to import petrol”
“ABUJA, Sept 2 (Reuters) – Nigeria’s state-oil firm NNPC on Sunday said it is facing financial strain making it unable to import petrol into Africa’s most populous nation, that has seen weeks-long fuel scarcity across its retail stations.
The news comes after Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), the country’s sole importer of refined products, in August announced record profits for 2023 but warned that it was covering for shortfalls in government’s petrol import bill.
Reuters reported early July that the NNPC’s debt to oil traders had surpassed $6 billion, doubling since early April, as the company struggled to cover the gap between fixed pump prices and global fuel costs. The NNPC declined to comment at that time.
It later blamed operational hitches for the long fuel queues.
“This financial strain has placed considerable pressure on the company and poses a threat to the sustainability of fuel supply,” NNPC’s spokesperson Olufemi Soneye said in a statement late on Sunday.”
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/nigerias-nnpc-says-its-facing-financial-strain-over-costly-fuel-imports-2024-09-01/
The oil that comes out of the ground can’t be directly put into vehicles of all kinds and used for other purposes. It need to be sent to a refinery that can handle the particular kind of oil.
The article says:
“Reuters reported early July that the NNPC’s debt to oil traders had surpassed $6 billion, doubling since early April, as the company struggled to cover the gap between fixed pump prices and global fuel costs.”
Clearly, Nigeria is holding down fuel costs at the pump to make its citizens happy. (Kamala has promised something similar with food costs.) The result is inevitably “not enough” of whatever item’s price is being held down. This happens over and over. If fuel prices to the consumer were higher, a lot less of oil products would be sold, but what would be sold would be sold at a high enough price to cover its costs. The financial problem would go away, but a lot of citizens would be unhappy about not being able to afford fuel for their vehicles.
We may end up with a government price with strict rationing, and a black market with a much higher price
Yes Gail, thank you.
I think that what is happening in Nigeria is practically explaining what you have been saying in your articles, that’s why I decided it to share it.
Universities, like banks, are too big to fail
The UK’s higher education sector is in crisis — but they can draw solutions from financial institutions
Philip Augar
https://www.ft.com/content/491a63d2-f44f-4432-9f47-a8534d98f082 so
The writer chaired the May government’s review of post-18 education and funding and is author of several books on the City and Wall Street
With nearly half of UK universities operating at a loss and a handful in serious financial difficulty, education secretary Bridget Phillipson recently said she expected them to manage “without seeking any calls on the taxpayer”. This uncompromising message was reinforced by skills minister Baroness Jacqui Smith who bluntly said she would allow a university to go bust “if it were necessary”.
It is probably what they have to say to avoid moral hazard, a term used in banking to describe the danger of excessive risk taking when bankers believe the authorities will always bail them out. But just as the British mortgage bank Northern Rock was rescued in 2007 on the day after the authorities said they would do no such thing, the reality in higher education is likely to be very different from the official line. This is because — just like the banks — universities are too big to fail.
The collapse of even a handful of the UK’s 140-plus universities would not have the same cataclysmic effect as a run on the banks but the consequences would be serious. In England, tuition is largely funded by student loans that can be paid off for up to 40 years. Institutional failure would leave a nightmare of liabilities. Should debt for unfinished courses be written off? Would alumni demand compensation for reputational damage?
The economic effects of failed universities are even wider. They employ academic and support staff, sustain local suppliers and landlords and seed spin-off companies. They are powerful economic booster rockets, especially in the “left behind” towns and cities where some of the newer ones are situated.
Tic Tok …glad I am old guy and not facing the future…won’t take much to push it over the cliff
Academics came up with the idea that if a whole lot more people got university degrees and more advanced degrees, there would be enough jobs with sufficiently higher wages to make the whole endeavor possible. This has not worked well at all.
Universities used the availability of debt for student to greatly increase their costs. They added football teams and fancy eating facilities. They added what used to be dorms, with a bathroom and bedroom for each student. They added layers of administration, seeking government grants for whatever kinds of research the government would pay for. They demanded that faculty have Ph. D.s and spend lots of time in “research,” and little time with teaching.
With the pumped up tuition, room and board costs, the overall cost became outrageous. Interest rates became way too high. Students who dropped out before they graduated were in especially dire straits, but many, many students found themselves in a situation in which they could not afford to marry and have families. Adding today’s ridiculous cost of housing makes the situation worse.
The university system has gone way beyond diminishing returns, I am afraid, at least in the US. I expect there is at least a little of this in the UK.
university is population control measure as dictated by western policy. same reason for funding women’s education in foreign countries.
Surely in America many universities will fail.
Dennis was peddling the University of North Dakota, I think , and then another university I have never heard about. I had shown his error of calculating its tuition.
The truth is if a university is not on the top 25 of the US News report it is probably not worth attending to.
It depends upon whether a person is learning technical skills or gaining connections with others in the “in group.” Dennis was talking about the Milwaukee School of Engineering (or something like that) recently. For technical skills, technical schools work just fine.
We used to hear a joke: “What do you call the person who graduated last in his medical school class?” Answer: Dr.
i can’t remember where i read, but the iq range is actually nearly the same within 2-3 points, regardless of your standing. selection and narrow range effects.
Such last of class Drs usually inherit their parents’ practice and do not actually practice. They leave the harder part to hirelings and do not cause too much damage.
Usually the names of such dullards are known in the industry, and they are unlikely to enter the more lucrative disciplines.
This is written with the presumption that all technical schools teach technical skills.
Schools generally are not where you go to learn anything, it is where you go to show off what you know. No one goes to welding school who has never welded in his/her life. They have some experience doing it–or were taught by friends and relatives.
Even technical schools are in it for the money, not to teach students technical skills. If you want to learn something, get a tutor or mentor.
I can see both ways.
I learned how to use a metal lathe in high school shop when I was 14.
On the other hand, I was watching a guy build up the teeth on a big shovel machine when I was 15 and he let me arc weld plates on the teeth.
15 years later I built an arc welder and did a number of home projects including a 3000 pound lift floor crane.
To be perfectly honest Kulm, your view of american academia is completely wrong.
Getting a little red under the collar, there, doctor….Are kul’s comments hitting a little too close to home…?
Recession fears in US. WTI is down to $70.75. NASQAD is down -2.28%.
Another taboo topic, along with CC, that is best not debated among certain circles
Studies have connected the use of pesticides to hundreds of thousands of additional cancer cases across the Midwest, especially in corn powerhouses such as Iowa, Illinois and Indiana. Research published in Frontiers in Cancer Control and Society in July found that even people who don’t work on farms are at risk.
Pesticides have been linked to lung cancer, pancreatic cancer, colon cancer and leukemia in children and adults.
“The researchers found a difference of 154,000 cancer cases per year, adjusted for population, between the area with the lowest pesticide use — the Great Plains — and that with the highest, the corn belt of the inner Midwest,” The Hill’s Saul Elbein reported.
Neil Hamilton, former director of the Drake Agricultural Law Center, told DailyMail: “There seems to be a surprising lack of curiosity [from] the agricultural companies and agriculturalists and farm groups … And, you know, maybe that’s predictable, because they maybe are concerned about what might be found if we started scratching a little bit deeper.”
Chris Jones, a retired research engineer and chemist at the University of Iowa, told DailyMail that pesticides are a “taboo subject” in the highly agricultural state.
“People know what to do. We know what to do and that’s to regulate the pollution from agriculture, but it’s such a taboo subject that it’s hard to get anybody to talk, especially if they’re still working,” Jones told the outlet.
https://www.newsnationnow.com/health/iowa-cancer-alcohol-pesticides/amp/
Yes, Parkinson’s disease is another one. I see how these chemicals are handled, in industry full protective gear would be required, on the farm gloves.
Personal goal, weed recognition and lasers zapping the weeds. When my farm is sprayed, I am in the city for a few days.
Farming is more dangerous than it appears.
Dennis L.
Our only chance is efficiency it sounds like you have a very efficient operation on your farm Dennis
https://robertbryce.substack.com/p/invasion-of-the-water-snatchers
Invasion Of The Water Snatchers
Texas ranchers are fighting “green” hydrogen projects. “It’s a ridiculous amount of water.”
The who expensive project won’t produce much output, either.
hmm
433,000 gallons per day, 18,000 g/hr. or about 57 tonne/hr of water. 1/9th is hydrogen, about 6.4 tons per hr. Electrolysis takes 50 kWh/kg or 50 MWh/ton so this installation would need about 320 MW. That’s reasonable for 600 MW of wind and solar.
485 acre-feet of water per year is not a lot of water. It something like the runoff from a square mile. Not sure the whole project makes a lot of sense, but if they really want to do it, including a few recharge wells should placate the local opposition.
This is in a very dry area of Texas. It is hard to scrape together much water for any use.
“very dry area of Texas.”
They get 21 inches of rain a year. Runoff from half a square mile would do it.
320 MW at $100/MW is $32,000/hr or $280 million per year for power
Probably not a good business.
You can do better than 50 MWh/ton of hydrogen by heating coal in steam. A ton of coal and 3 MWh of power will make.
2H2O +C -> 2H2 +CO2 or three MWh gives 1/3 of a ton of H2. So a ton of H2 would take 9 MWh. That’s about 5 times as good as electrolysis.
Keith, you need to get out more. you will not get runoff from 1/2 a square mile to equal anything like the quantity of water needed.
Plants and animals need and use water. most of the water in a 21 inch area of Texas will be lost back to the environment through evaporation and evapo-transpiration, not from runoff.
If there is a heavy downpour and the land has been particularly poorly looked after, then there possibly will be some runoff with a lot of silt.
On average 5-10% of rain would be runoff at best. at 5% that would be around 26 acre ft/yr, which is a lot less than 485 acre/ft.
However the real problem is all the water is already allocated, so the ‘extra’ use will have to come from some other user. Farmers never want this to start as it’s always them that eventually miss out..
I spent the longest part of my life in Tucson which gets about 10.6 inches a year.
It’s not obvious to me that the farmers would lose in this case. How do they rate fuel compared to water?
The amount of fuel to be produced is trivial.
“The amount of fuel to be produced is trivial.”
hmm. 6.4 tons per hr, 153 tons per day. Made into fuel, H2C, that is 9 times or 1382 t/day or around 10,000 bbl per day. The US could probably get by on 10 million bbl/day, so it would take around 1000 plants like this to replace oil out of the ground.
I wonder where they are planing to get the carbon?
According to the article, the output is expected to be:
“the final energy output of ET Fuels’ proposed Tierra Alta project (100,000 tons of methanol per year) will be relatively small, only about 985 barrels of oil equivalent per day.”
Green hydrogen will be produced in the middle of this process.
“about 985 barrels of oil equivalent per day.”
Either I got the numbers wrong or they did.
I expect that the engineers putting together this system have a more realistic view of the output than your model. The output seems to be 100,000 tons of methanol per year according to the engineers. That is 274 tons of methanol per day. This is not a whole lot. Without doing further math, I would expect the result to come out to be a lot closer to 985 barrels of oil equivalent per day than to 10,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
There are a lot of tricky pieces to this calculation. For one thing, there probably needs to be a lot of energy used to get the water used in this process. The only thing that possibly makes this process look like it could be profitable is all of the subsidies involved. The EROEI looks to be dreadful.
725.7 kJ/mol, mol of methanol being 32 gm, 22.6 MJ/ kg around 6.2 kWh/kg. Butane has about twice the kWh/kg.
I get 11.4 t/hr. so the product is around 71 MW. For 320 MW input, that’s just awful, less than 25%. I don’t know if I could design something this bad. But then, I don’t know where they are getting the carbon and can’t find a process description.
“There are a lot of tricky pieces to this calculation. For one thing, there probably needs to be a lot of energy used to get the water used in this process. ”
I doubt it. The amount of water is small. Water is certainly less than a dollar per ton.
Use sea water, you only need the H, if use Pt it is non-reactive with almost anything.
That cubic mile of Pt will be very useful, Starship is getting ready to blast off.
Dennis L.
No more starships after 2025 if your champion wins and puts Trump, Musk and Fridman into maximum security prison for life.
The world is a strange place and what happens tomorrow if difficult to predict let alone in more than a year.
Dennis L.
On the contrary
It is actually easy to predict something if enough variables are satisfied, based upon a person’s track record
Gopalan is someone who would rather let all tech die, and since Musk stood in a direction opposite to hers, she won’t forgive him.
Even if Musk might be able to escape, his facilities in USA won’t and will be seized, to be distributed among her cronies.
In pursuit of advancement of civilization..
Hustle culture comes with a cost’: Tech entrepreneur Kritarth Mittal hospitalised, blames unhealthy lifestyle
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/hustle-culture-comes-with-a-cost-tech-entrepreneur-kritarth-mittal-hospitalised-blames-unhealthy-lifestyle/amp_articleshow/113020496.cms
Mumbai-based entrepreneur Kritarth Mittal exposed the hidden costs of hustle culture by sharing his health struggles on social media. From a hospital bed, he warned about the dangers of an unbalanced work routine marked by sleepless nights and poor diet. His revelations have sparked discussions on prioritizing health and work-life balance in fast-paced industries like tech.
Hustle culture comes with a cost — some you incur right away and some over decades.
Choice is yours, I’m just here to show you the ugly side of it so you don’t get swayed easy.
This is me after pulling all-nighters, sleeping for <5-6 hours, and no diet plan:
The entrepreneur, who has built a successful career in the tech industry, admitted that his grueling schedule, which has been part of his life since college, has finally caught up with him. “TBH (to be honest) my routine has been like that since my college days but now my body has started to remind me that I am not 20 anymore,” he said in a follow-up post.
Four decades ago I helped a young man like the one above in a wheelchair and he confessed the same. He literally worked himself to poor health and said he would never regain his health. He was rich though, and had plenty of money 🤑
Suppose the investor upper class takes all the risk..the ownership society as the Republicans spoke of..where they own 99%
Yah, I get it.
Not sure about balance, but understand time. I have a personal trainer 3x/week; recently had to do a project which required more time, easy job physically, but took time, skipped the trainer for a month.
On way to farm/school at times stop at a convenience store for a rest room break. I run past the jelly Bismark’s, they are good, success is making it out the door without a Bismark.
My youth was a simple, in today’s terms, poor life. My family had their health, my mom cooked, the meals were simple as there was not money for anything but the basics. We also had time.
Today’s life is too damn busy.
Investing is a tough game, the lessons are not given away, they are expensive in many ways. Staying good health takes time, effort and indeed money. These are not easy choices for the driven.
Dennis L.
(Politico + Bignewsnetwork)
“Ukrainian anthem found in US voter database code – Politico”
“A review of the software responsible for compiling voter lists in New Hampshire reportedly revealed that it was connected to servers outside the US”.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/01/us-election-software-national-security-threats-00176615
https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/274549391/ukrainian-anthem-found-in-us-voter-database-code—politico
As during these years nobody has fixed the problem of the voting machines, in my view, what could happen in US is another ‘unexpected’ result…
Years ago, my two sons had summer jobs involved with seeing whether the newly installed Diebold voting machines worked properly. One son drove to remote counties, with small populations. He found that those counties often could not afford much in the way of computers, so they were using the voting machines for word processing and video games as well. Who knows what all was being installed on them, after they were delivered? Building expensive little-used hardware creates a problem of its own.
It is possible to run a live CD and boot a computer from a CD or a stick. Looking to the Tails project, the complete net communication can be controlled. That would need Linux, of course, but voting software is not too difficult. Any hardware bugs cannot be eliminated by this, though.
Booting from a stick or a CD could precede a hash to see if the complete software packet is okay. It could be an idea to perform randomly memory and processor tests during the calculations, so eventually corrupted hardware cannot know, if this is a test or a calculation. That would mean to write own software, of course.
Of course countries not named USA want Kamala Gopalan (I will use her real surname) to win, since the Tamil will completely dismantle the US institutions.
You are exactly correct. What is happening is a planned attack on the US.
In space.
I would say that a major component of today’s atomization of the society is the fear of the womb: the males fear of the closer relationships with the women due to the fear that there will be another individual of the human species crawling out of the womb that will contribute to the destruction of the living conditions of the humans on the Earth.
If the males were in a situation in which they could support a wife and family, the situation would be different.
The post World War II period has been an unusually good period for a large share of men being able to afford families, thanks to the rapid growth in the consumption of oil. But this is rapidly going away. We are reaching a situation in which few men and women can afford families.
Divorce laws, no fault. Women liquidate to have a good time, they deserve it.
No easy solution.
The Great Society was not so great, liberated women, child support, destroyed families which are not only expensive but a great deal of work and sacrifice.
Dennis L.
See I think everyone in the US is going to have to move in closer and have mega cities. We simply won’t be able to afford all the maintenance for rural and Surburban infrastructure. And its a huge waste of resources trucking all sorts of goods and people living on the outskirts and out of town.
“Small town locals furious as town suddenly cuts off power: ‘They’ve abandoned us!”
“Gas, electricity, and even water has now been cut to residents of a California coastal city who have been warned to evacuate at a moment’s notice after land movements left areas virtually uninhabitable.
Rancho Palos Verdes, south of LA, has been dubbed America’s richest retirement town, but many poorer residents have been left with nowhere to go after surging groundwater knocked out its utility network.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13805101/small-town-locals-furious-town-cuts-power.html
The only problem with that is that it tends to be the cities that collapse. Partly, they can’t get enough goods from the countryside. Also, germs spread easily within the city, causing people to die earlier.
The countryside, with the food it produces, can sometimes go on, if it isn’t dependent on supply chains coming from the city and from around the world.
“The only problem with that is that it tends to be the cities that collapse. Partly, they can’t get enough goods from the countryside. ‘
That seems to have been what happened in 1177 BC. The rains failed, the crops failed and there was famine.
“Also, germs spread easily within the city, causing people to die earlier.
Poorly nourished people do not fight off disease very well. The plague of Justin seems to have followed the agricultural disruptions caused by the 536 eruption.
“The countryside, with the food it produces, can sometimes go on, if it isn’t dependent on supply chains coming from the city and from around the world.”
Depends. If a collapse starts as weather to crop failure, the countryside is the first to feel the pinch of famine. Also the more numerous and organized city folks are likely to raid the countryside for food. How well governments will hold up is anyone’s guess. Maybe as long as they can feed the army. It would be an interesting computer game like Sim City.
>> ‘We’re sparing no expense. This is bigger than Rancho Palos Verdes. This land movement is so gigantic and so damaging, that one city should not have to bear the burden alone.
>> ‘You’d figure if this was an earthquake or if it was a fire or a flash flood I feel like we might have got a different response.’
I think it is instructive to note the non-response “you’re on your own” from the government and also the desire on the part of residents to have others pay for their city’s infrastructure. It is every man, woman, dog for his self.
Aside, landslides have been happening in California from time immemorial and relatives of mine used to live on the edge of a cliff there. Backing out the driveway was a nerve-racking experience and it’s a good thing it doesn’t ice up there much, if ever.
Some might think that a revolution or whatever might overturn everything and today’s winners will get their comeuppance.
Sorry, but usually that leads to an even more cruel ruler who would be more efficient , more brutal and more merciless.
And there won’t be a revolution, because of the lopsided difference of technological power between the winners and the rest. All the winners have to do is just disable the internet in the area and the have-nots won’t know where they are.
It is interesting that the surveillance techs are being tried in poorer countries first. Brazil has banned Twitter, or X, and people don’t know what to do.
There has been no real revolution for a long time and it is unlikely that there will be one in our lifetimes.
Sadly, I have to say you make a good point.
>> there won’t be a revolution, because of the lopsided difference of technological power between the winners and the rest
I’m not so sure. Instability is growing because of resource constraints, disruptive technologies (yes, some are finally here), and resentment of the control measures being applied by today’s winners. Tech-based enforcement will have to maintain the technology stack and supply chains in the face of that growing instability.
One of the ways technology can be disruptive and self-aborting is that they may democratize the ability to kill large numbers of people and thus break supply chains. We saw what could happen with a relatively benign virus, now imagine it is serious. As more people get fed up, they may resort to attacks against the supply chains. If targets are strategically selected, it could bring everything to a halt.
I also want to note that technology can also facilitate direct democracy / direct action / digital mobs and digital communities. These haven’t been used to their potential, but people could aggressively renounce laws not part of their digitally-connected community and create their own country in a country. It could provide for fast decision making, fast consensus building, and immediate action and accountability.
I agree. Technological superiority of the haves is about as robust as technological superiority of the USA vis a vis the Houthis. As far as I know it depends 100% on the electric pylons to be upright. and even something like peer to peer communication is still out there in the wild.
They have surveillance tech and also the ability to incinerate everything in their home turf
And they can burn down the wilderness quite easily
I am afraid if the pylons lie on the ground none of that will work.
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EIA has posted a figure for world crude oil production for last May (81.036 mp/d).
Their figures for world crude oil production for 2024 average 81.7528 mb/d, which is slightly below their figure for 2023 (81.778 mb/d).
The record of petro-dollar prices shows them sagging since June, 2022, despite the inflation in the US dollar ( https://oil-price.net/ ) — was post-covid peak oil last December? ( https://davecoop.net/seneca )
https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world/petroleum-and-other-liquids/monthly-petroleum-and-other-liquids-production?pd=5&p=0000000000000000000000000000000000vg&u=0&f=M&v=mapbubble&a=-&i=none&vo=value&&t=C&g=00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001&l=249-ruvvvvvfvtvnvv1vrvvvvfvvvvvvfvvvou20evvvvvvvvvvnvvvs0008&s=94694400000&e=1714521600000
I agree with you. World crude oil production isn’t looking good.
Average production for 2024 YTD through May is slightly below production for 2023. The month of May is looking particularly low for production.
It is hard to read much into monthly peaks, but it may very well be that December 2023 is the post-covid monthly peak.
Looking at local peaks, I see:
November 2018 84.6 million barrels per day
December 2019 83.5
February 2023 82.6
December 2023 82.8
May 2024 is down to 81.0 mb/d. It is not looking good for another bounce as high as 82.8.
Israel has huge problems, as we have noticed before. I can’t imagine that all of the fighting has helped the tourist trade. Israel is in many ways like Europe, in terms of energy supplies. This is a WSJ article talking about deep divisions in Israel. The population doesn’t necessarily support what the right-wing ultranationalist and religious political parties want.
Israel’s Divisions Deepen, as Hostage Killings Set Off Strikes and Protests
Israel’s political divide deepened Monday, as cities were hit by a national strike and people took to the streets to protest the government’s failure to strike a hostage-release deal, after authorities said the Palestinian militant group Hamas killed six hostages in captivity. . .
Netanyahu’s coalition of right-wing, ultranationalist and religious political parties has mostly supported his hard-line stance in negotiations with Hamas. The prime minister’s ultranationalist partners have also threatened to topple the government if a hostage deal comes at the price of ending the war. Polls show the governing coalition wouldn’t be re-elected if a new vote happened now.
If or when the US defaults or collapses then say goodbye to Israel. If it weren’t for the US supplying Israel with weapons for over 60 years, they would have been run out of town long ago.
The sad thing is that America does not support Israel to give Jewish people a homeland after the Holocaust. America supports Israel so we can have a military outpost in Middle East, a short distance away from the oil reserves. It’s all about the oil and maintaining empire, we use the guise of helping the Jews for our ends.
There are multiple reasons for every action. Public relations is all about picking the reason(s) to give to the public that will best appeal to them. No one wants to talk about being an outpost to look after oil interests.
So True.
Let us hope KSA runs dry soon.
Sure Ed, be careful what you wish for because our social security and pension cheques might not be in the mail.
From what I have gleemed from other much smarter folks on the web, it’s coming much sooner than later.
Hoping I’ll be pushing up daisies when it does, rather not participate in the “End of the World Party”, as Fast Eddy would announce here
The Saudi’s running dry might be why conflict with Iran is in the plans of the neocons.
If Saudi Arabia collapses, it would be horrific for the global economy.
Do you want to be called an anti semite?
How is what he said antisemitic?
What he is saying is 100 percent true.
But, not “politically correct”.
One never knows, the sea supposedly parted for this group some years back.
Israel has significant natural gas.
“The Leviathan gas field is located in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, off the coast of Israel. Specifically, it is approximately 130 kilometers (81 miles) west of Haifa1. This field is one of the largest offshore natural gas discoveries and plays a significant role in Israel’s energy production.” It is estimated to be 22 x10A^12 feet in size, in the US Copilot says it is $.95/cubic foot so probably getting loans against it would not be a problem.
Three other fields are mentioned, Tamar, Karish and Tanin and Katlan.
They would appear to have no issues with energy. Having a hx of being negotiators they might trade 6,000 ft^2 for a barrel of oil, or maybe even refined products with refinery gain to boot. One field has $22T so perhaps if they knew a good banker something could be worked out.
Dennis L.
A person could argue that this natural gas rightfully belongs to Palestine, since it is off the coast of Palestine.
Part of the reason for the current war may be for Israel to get control of this natural gas for itself, rather than Palestine’s use.
“Kyle Bass Says ‘Green’ War To Blackball Oil Was Doomed To Fail”
Excerpt: “Hayman Capital Management founder and CIO Kyle Bass explained in a Bloomberg interview that the mounting backlash against environmental, social, and governance investing in recent years is primarily a response to the extreme demands of radical climate activists, or “green” defenders. Bass argued that these activists were so disconnected from reality that their uncompromising stance on blackballing the fossil fuel industry—without acknowledging that energy transitions can take upwards of half a century—has fueled the backlash. He said plans to moderate fossil fuel usage over decades from the start would’ve possibly prevented the backlash.
Bass said the ESG backlash derives from climate activists’ demands that fossil fuels be abandoned immediately. He said the demands were never realistic.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/kyle-bass-says-green-war-blackball-oil-was-doomed-fail
Conclusion:
“The big takeaway is that anyone who puts their climate crisis or woke religion first ahead of rational decision-making is doomed to fail.”
“Bass said the ESG backlash derives from climate activists’ demands that fossil fuels be abandoned immediately. He said the demands were never realistic.”
Absolutely true with current technology. New advanced technology is a different story. But where that would lead is hard to say.
to repeat myself, with no hope of it being any use, but which doesnt need a calculator.
cheap surplus energy allows the production and use of sophisticated technology.
sophisticated technology does not deliver cheap surplus energy—ever.
Nanotechnology could pave the planet with solar cells, at near zero cost.
We might not ever get it, but that’s a different argument.
here we go again
ifs buts and mights.
does your calculator have a reality button Keith??
I too have a calculator…if i need it i have to go look for it…might take me half an hour. i rarely use it.
cover the planet with solar cells.
until that energy from them is converted into something else, it is use-less.
paved with solar cells—i wonder what we will eat
And a cubic mile of Pt would solve the storage problem and be environmentally friendly as well.
We have a whole solar system, it may not be easy, but the engineering is doable.
Starship next week?
Dennis L.
we do not have a whole solar system dennis—other than to look at
keiths magic calculator might tell us stuff is out there
but the means to get it is, as yet, unimagined, let alone under development
using 1000 year old chinese technology will not mine asteroids.
but that is all we have
or are likely to have.
“using 1000 year old chinese technology will not mine asteroids.
but that is all we have
or are likely to have.”
Norm, worse case it would take around 100,000 tons of processing plant launched into orbit. That could be done with 1000 StarShip flights. Falcon rockets fly 20 times. If they can fly 20 times, it would take building 50 of them.
Can you think of any reason we could not build 50 StarShips or launch them 1000 times?
BTW, liquid fuel rockets are more recent than Chinese gunpowder rockets.
“Robert Hutchings Goddard was an American engineer, professor, physicist, and inventor who is credited with creating and building the world’s first liquid-fueled rocket, which was successfully launched on March 16, 1926. ” Wikipedia
Not even 100 years
“And a cubic mile of Pt would solve the storage problem and be environmentally friendly as well.”
It depends. If it came in like the one that killed the dinosaurs, that was not environmentally friendly at all.
“We have a whole solar system, it may not be easy, but the engineering is doable.”
Maybe. We see 24 stars in a cluster around Tabby’s Star that show dips like Dyson patches passing between us and the stars. If they did it, no reason we can’t.
“Starship next week? ”
Or the week after. Supposed to fly in Sept.
Norman Pagett’s statement about technology and cheap surplus energy is right on target and what the real world is all about. Anyone who doesn’t understand his statement, but yet has solutions or ideas about improving the world is out of touch. There is a reason that Gail’s column is called, “Our FINITE world”. Great observation, Norman.
Gail, you are amazing. You are the best.
The Aged Pensioner
that dose of truth will get you tarred and feathered jay–at the very least. and tar burns really well, the fate of all heretics.
i too am an aged p
with all my faculties called into question.
“Norman Pagett’s statement about technology and cheap surplus energy is right on target and what the real world is all about.
You can buy solar today for 1.35 cents per kWh. Is that cheap enough, or how low do you want it?
“Anyone who doesn’t understand his statement, but yet has solutions or ideas about improving the world is out of touch. There is a reason that Gail’s column is called, “Our FINITE world”.
The earth is finite, the whole solar system is also finite. But there is one heck of a lot of economic growth possible before we are using a significant fraction of the energy the sun puts out.
and i also added
to get off earth we use 1000 yr old chinese technology—exploding chemicals.
and we have no other practical alternative
keiths calculator–yes—which confirms exactly the information he feeds into it.
but offers nothing more than that.
when we have somethng other than exploding chemical combustion for serious off earth lift—let me know.
then we can start figuring out asteroid mining.
after that we can figure out what to do with all the stuff we bring back from asteroids.
gold plated calculators anyone?
Jay,
Ours is indeed a finite world, but for the foreseeable future, the solar system is infinite.
With pix and axe man made it through bronze, into iron now maybe humanoid robots.
We will not mine the solar system with pick axe, we will not explore with a horse and donkey.
We are doing very well indeed given our short period of existence.
Dennis L.
Dennis and Keith are dreaming big dreams about going into space to mine materials or perform manufacturing there.
Jay and Norman are skeptical at best about the potential for these dreams to become anything more than dreams.
Others may be skeptical about the potential for these dreams to improve the world even if they can be turned into reality.
We can imagine a lot, about the upsides and downsides of strategies and developments, but there are alway imponderables.
“The best laid schemes o’ mice an’ men / Gang aft a-gley.”
—Robert “Rabbie” Burns, the Bard of Scotland (for those who are getting bored with me constantly quoting the Bard of Avon).
I prefer to sit this one out, because, as Niels Bohr said, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future!”
sitting on fences will do yourself a mischief tim
A simple oil well in the late 1800’s would be pretty sophisticated technology to someone around Christ’s time. But, then Christ’s miracles would be pretty sophisticated in our time; walking on water comes to mine.
We don’t know what we don’t know about the future. Make it so, Captain Jean-Luc Picard?
Dennis L.
Kyle Bass seems to not know the law. The “extreme demands” “disconnected of reality” is EU law and German law and backed by scientific evaluations and findings. The key word to find respective papers is “Great Transition”. The process we are seeing is at minimum 15 years old and Merkel was already involveld, a conservative, whose sucessor in the conservative party is the former head of Blackrock Germany.
When I digged into that, perhaps 15 years ago, I had the impression scientific standards won’t meet high school level. Amoung the transition plans is the idea, to build a large transmission line from Sahara to Hambourg to transport all needed energy for Germany over that line – all, including household heating, all transports and industrial energy. As the production of energy is cheapest in Sahara. In the years before transportation losses had been reduced by building power plants closer to cities, which was possible with less air polluting technologies. This reduction was extrapolated and applied as future transmission line efficiency without looking to any boundaries of physics.
Around 2010 we saw the excellent study of the German Army to evaluate the effects of peakoil. In German parliament they demanded a reaction of Merkel. She answered, don’t worry, for this “we” have a solution. In the following year the study was replaced. When Merkel announced “all must get vaxxed”, it crossed my head immediately “that must be Merkel’s, ‘their’ solution!”.
I remember that report, it said all western governments would collapse in the short to med term leading to total anarchy.
Yes. I don’t know if you have heard about RKI-files, recently.
The Robert-Koch-Institut (RKI) is a medical research center of the German government and an advisor to the Ministry of Health.
The RKI has advised during the pandemic to administer lockdowns and to mandate tests, vaccinations and masks.
It’s reputation is so large courts have ruled, that if the RKI has said it is necessary, it is necessary. Lockdowns and mandates are a violation of human rights, of course, and only justified in case of a state of emergency.
The RKI-files are a bundle of partly official and partly leaked documents and protocolls, in which a lot of people, including lawyers and MPs, read, that the RKI did AT NO TIME see any case of emergency and advised AGAINST lockdowns and mandates and the Minister ordered to publish, that the RKI declares a state of emergency and obligates measures.
There has never been any such state and never any medical need for vaccinations and neither for lockdowns and home detentions.
If a Minister can without state of emergency dictate arbitrarily measures against human rights, the state of justice is in danger.
Due to current research, one might see the vaccinations as very risky. While excess mortality was high, the longtime damage seems to be even higher. It seems to be a question of time, until people, who don’t read medical studies will become aware.
One might come to the idea, that the outcome of the peakoil study had been preponed.
Very disturbing!
Thank you Gail for yet another clear eyed and level headed analysis!
You are welcome!
According to CBS News’ price tracker, the cost of electricity has increased from $0.14 per kilowatt hour in 2019 to $0.18 per kilowatt hour in 2024 — a change of more than 28.5%. The average American is now paying nearly $300 a month just in utilities.
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/electricity-prices-rising-inflation-climate-change-clean-energy/
Sometimes I have to choose whether I’m going to pay the light bill or do I pay all the rent or buy food or not let my son do a sport?” Stacey Freeman, a 44-year-old North Carolina mom told KFF Health News.
Her energy bills have cost her hundreds a month, even as she relied on window units and space heaters in the summer and winter.
Freeman’s situation is known as “energy poverty,” or the inability to afford utilities to properly heat or cool their home.
A 2022 study published in Nature Communications found that 16% of U.S. households experience energy poverty, which researchers defined as spending more than 6% of household income on energy expenditures. It’s not a problem solely for those who are considered low-income. The study found that 5.2 million households that live above the poverty line face this issue, with Black, Hispanic and Native American communities feeling a disproportionate impact.
…
The cost of electricity is based on a multitude of factors, including the volatile prices for natural gas, wildfire risk, electricity transmission and distribution, regulations and, the one factor Americans know all too well, inflation. But experts say there’s an underlying problem that, unlike inflation, isn’t going away anytime soon — the heat.
An unreliable national grid
Recent years have seen back-to-back heat records across the world, including in the U.S. Rising temperatures fuel extreme weather events, such as heat waves in the summer and snow storms in the winter, which then increases energy consumption as people try to keep their homes warm or cool. It also increases the costs for the utility companies themselves to make sure that the electric infrastructure can handle it.
Sure enough, we’ll manage it ….carbon offsets..
I would say that rising interest rates are behind a whole lot of the increase in cost, but no one wants to talk about that, just as falling interest rates had suppressed price increases for a long time. The cost of so-called renewables rises greatly if higher interest rates need to be paid. Banks and insurance companies balances take a big hit. Insurance rates seem to go up for no apparent reason.
Climate is a popular scapegoat. Rising interest rates are hard to understand as a cause, just as the hidden subsidy since 1981 of falling interest rates was a major contributor to what seemed to be a booming economy.
My energy provider said that they may not be able to afford the insurance. Insurance rates have gone up a lot for companies because of what happened in California .. they want the government to intervene
California has had big fires, indirectly from intermittent electricity power lines. The fact that there is so much building in close proximity to forests adds to the problem.
Hawaii had a huge fire as well.
These huge catastrophic fires are another part of the reason that insurance rates have gone up.
SARS-CoV-2 triggers a new airborne form of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (some are proposing specific terms such as “CoV-AIDS”
https://whn.global/public-service-announcement/
WOW!
Check out the team and associations to be uninspired about their message.
Netflix’s ‘Elite’Star Julian Ortega Dead at 41 …Cardiac Arrest on Beach
https://www.tmz.com/2024/08/29/netflix-elite-julian-ortega-dead/
Miss Lebanon Dima Safi dies from heart attack at 30
https://www.msn.com/en-xl/lifestyle/other/miss-lebanon-dima-safi-dies-from-heart-attack-at-30/ar-AA1pyO2B
US rapper Fatman Scoop dies after collapsing on stage
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyn0z93p11o
Killing the same usual suspects as HIV/AIDS.
Che noia !
Ancora a menarla con il Covid?
We are in another bag of problems now, Covid is the past.
Keep people afraid of doing anything seems to be the real message.
Shell to cut workforce by 20% .
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-plans-20-cut-oil-105701554.html
The end of the Intel era .
https://x.com/gurgavin/status/1830336770824606120
Of course, Oil and Gas Journal will continue to write that things are good for the oil and gas industry, if the profits can remain high. In fact, if the company can do share buybacks to keep the stock price high, so much the better!
The Oil and Gas Journal won’t care about laying off workers. Surely there will be more areas around the world where perhaps more investment can be made, at least in the wishful thinking of investors. And surely prices will rise higher, they hope.
Regarding Intel, I notice that one of the comments talks about bankruptcy being the end game. Presumably, if Intel cannot make a turn around.
I suspect that if Shesha (how they call the USA here) loses server monopoly, it also loses a siginificant fraction of surveillance. It is possible that all new servers in 10 years will be Huawei.
The U.S doesn’t have a monopoly on servers. Hardware to assemble servers or actual manufacturing almost exclusively originates in Asia. There is some assembly in the U.S., but mostly JIT from Asia.
The chips are designed by western design firms. AMD, Intel, Qualcomm, a few others. Now Microsoft (deep state, actually) has pushed them to include NPUs (“neural processing units”) in all new chips and these will run black-box procedures on your machine without even any code that can be referenced or inspected by the employees of Microsoft. It will provide a whole new level of on-client distributed surveillance.
Exxon is saying 30% less oil and gas in two years time, unless investment is immediately restored. Shell is cutting back 20% of its exploration group. And on ZH today, Kyle Bass is saying that ESG is the cause.
So, is this just how war is done these days?
Meanwhile, US bank depositors with over $250,000 in them are transferring their money out of bank accounts into US Treasuries or to Money Markets based on US Treasuries and other securities with supposed US government backing.
In some ways, this looks to me like a bank run that is already in progress.
My broker sent out a report saying, don’t expect any increase in the stock market between now and yearend. The rate cuts are already priced into stock market. Impetus to move out of the stock market, too.
Kyle Bass is a member of the council on foreign relations though. Globalists are responsible for ESG, so what is he talking about?
A likely cause is simply shale fields rolling over. It was never going to last for more than a couple of decades and now the Permian is starting its decline. You knew the jig was up when the EIA started counting LNG as oil.
Earlier I had posted about the decline of diesel usage in EU and the consequent end of growth . The S&P Eurozone PMI report is issued and it confirms that .
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/a8579771f5cb4f739658296e48772596
Salient features ;
Commenting on the PMI data, Dr Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, noted:
“Things are going downhill with no brakes. The manufacturing sector remains stuck in a slowdown as business conditions have worsened at the same solid pace for three consecutive months, bringing the recession to a gruelling twenty-six months and counting. New orders, both domestic and international, are further tempering, dashing any near-term hopes of a revival. To add insult to injury, input prices have been rising again since June. There is a silver lining, however, insofar as businesses managed to pass on some of these increased costs to their customers in August.
The deflationary phase in the goods sector may be coming to an end. For the first time since April 2023, sales prices rose, driven by France, the Netherlands, Greece and Italy. This could spell trouble for the European Central Bank, which has been grappling with persistent inflation in the services sector while relying on falling prices in the manufacturing sector to keep disinflation at bay. Rising
transport costs are partly responsible for this pick-up in price pressure. Although the rise in goods prices remains modest, the ECB will certainly be keeping a close eye on this development.
This does sound worrying! France and Germany are especially doing very badly.
VW to shutdown plant in Germany . First time in it’s history .
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/02/investing/volkswagen-factory-closure-germany/index.html
I think that they are saying that they are thinking about closing German plants:
“it could not rule out plant closures its home country.”
It certainly would be traumatic to Germany and to Europe.
” Oil remains the mainstay of transport, with petrol and diesel powering most land transport. Nuclear and (where practical) hydroelectric power provide a large slice of electricity generation, while wind and solar have also expanded in recent years. So that it appears that we might do without oil, or at least cut back to a large extent. This though, ignores the central role of heavy oil, and the diesel fuel derived from it, to all of these other sources of energy.
The peak of coal-powered coal production was in the mid-1920s and led directly to the Great Depression of the 1930s. The only reason the world economy has been able to produce logarithmically greater volumes of coal in the century since, is due to the use of the massively powerful mining machinery enabled by diesel fuel. Take away the diesel trucks and machinery and we are back to the Great depression in a matter of months. The same is true for all of those other energy sources. Just imagine, for example, how difficult it would be to transport something as large and heavy as a wind turbine blade without massive diesel engines… and let’s not get started on the transportation of the transformers that are essential grid infrastructure. In short, almost all of our energy infrastructure breaks down without diesel fuel.” ?
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2024/09/02/the-long-and-the-short-of-it-three-a-failure-of-communication/?fbclid=IwY2xjawFDxF9leHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHYmdW6z2k1qsAHM3KVgEJTdj607HgAnpNR3V5bDeq0VDAqh4wyEOjZxwwA_aem_wRAYc2rHCyJnR-iqywrX6w
Some academic wrote Poverty, by America
https://www.amazon.com/Poverty-America-Matthew-Desmond/dp/0593239911
The gist of the book can be summarized into 3 sentences
Millions of families are denied safety and security in one of the richest countries of the world
Poverty isn’t simply the condition of not having enough money. It’s the condition of not having enough choice.
We prioritize the subsidization of affluence over the alleviation of poverty.
Well,professor Desmond, who wrote that book, will never have to worry about such stuff.
It is a stroke of genius that such policies were implemented.
Keeping the poor down, denying them enough offortunities, and subsidizing those most likely to be successful is good policy.
I am only unhappy that it is not that severe enough. The poor should NOT be given any opportunities.
Of course, the many poor people of the world would disagree. In fact, revolutions will tend to unseat the rich people precisely because they tend to think this way.
The possibility of a revolution is now passed because of lopsided technological difference between the haves and the have-nots.
Not to mention the identity politics and the hyper fragmentation of society that prevents enough like minded people to agree on what to revolt against, and how, without some overarching organization to manufacture a fake revolt, create the illusion that the fake revolt is grassroots, spoon-feed people what to believe to suit the organisation’s political agenda, while monetizing and productizing the fake revolt.
What technology?? The wealthy don’t even know what a Phillip screwdriver is; they won’t last very long. Once food gets scarce they are toast. Did you even read Gail’s article above?
Without adequate Oil, the “haves” technology won’t work so well.
I would argue that a revolution may not be necessary to unseat current governments. They may disappear in the same way the government of the Soviet Union disappeared.
Today’s US government has supposedly guaranteed bank accounts up to $250,000 per owner. It also has guaranteed certain pension benefits. Besides these things, it has promised Social Security and Medicare to people. People have an expectation that someone, somewhere, will keep up roads, pipelines, and schools, too.
Governments elsewhere have somewhat different limits, but the idea is the same.
I am afraid that major governments simply collapse, leaving local governments to fend for themselves and provide whatever benefits they can. I can image the EU structure disappearing, leaving the individual countries as before, to fight for resources however they like. NATO doesn’t look like it will have a long life, either.
“I am afraid that major governments simply collapse, leaving local governments to fend for themselves and provide whatever benefits they can. ”
That’s pretty much what happened in 1177 BC. But whatever was left of isolated local governments they didn’t have a lot of people to take care of, the people mostly starved.
Drought and famine will do that.
@Kulm
From my experience, “the rich” don’t carry any selectable genes. Why some families manage to keep up some knowledge and self-discipline, which IS a value and of course, sommerhouses, good food and great doctors help with longevity and superiour performance, most rich don’t show this performance from my experience.
I even doubt the correlation of intelligence or special talents like in music and success and wealth.
The rich are consuming a large part of “surplus”. While it is necessary to have knowledge and some extra money, think of the alchemist “hobbies” of European nobilities, to develop something like modern chemistry with its return promises, it were not necessarily “the rich”, who made the steps forward, nor were the geniusses and inventors rewarded properly.
What were the big achievements of the last centuries made by “the rich”? The vaxx? Websites? Hollywood films? Tasteful plastic surgeons? Creating any hypes about payment or ecar or advertising scams?
The latest Exxon report has got the attention of many of the ” non believers” and those who say ” nothing to worry ” . Many talk of rationing will save the day . It is not as simple as it seems . Hideway at takes it down .
” There are several aspects in there that are theoretically nice sounding, but in the real world will not work as imagined.
As an example, take a grain farmer using modern machines in the West, planning for the crop, knowing that he has a limited amount of fuel he can use this year 10% less than last year, but also knows last years fuel use was 40,000 litres, in a year when everything went to plan, planting, 2 fertilizer runs, 2 herbicide runs, then harvest. He had a good crop off 10,000 acres.
He knows the new rules limit him to 36,000 litres. He also knows that with farming we have this thing called ‘weather’ that often gets in the way. The first planting could fail due to lack of rain or too much rain and rotting in the ground, so ‘might’ have to do a second planting, which takes more fuel. May even have to do a herbicide run as well before this second planting of a latter crop.
Planting 9,000 acres is asking for trouble, as it gives no reserve fuel ‘in case’, so the farmer is likely to only plant 7,000-8,000 acres at best, and of course can sell off his ‘extra fuel entitlement’ if any left over.
Govt plans are for everyone to be more efficient, so still expects 10,000 acres to be planted in their planning models, whereas in reality the crop will be 20-30% lower in a good season. In a world wide scheme, this would be happening everywhere. Following year much worse again…
Then turn the attention to mines, that have a lowering fuel availability, but also have lower ore grades every year on average. The mine will close altogether with a lot of metals still in the ground after just a few years of fuel reductions, as the economics just wont work. The economics of whether to mine an ore body or not, are based on a continual operation of whatever size, set up. Intermittent running of the machinery doesn’t work, as it takes time to ramp up and down production through the processing plant.
A mine forced to buy extra fuel ‘entitlements’ before buying the extra fuel, will know that when ore grade gets to 0.XX%, profitability has gone, so close down the mine early.
Ability of any ‘new’ mine to start is highly unlikely, as they would have to buy all the entitlements before they can buy the fuel. It means the grade of ore would have to be particularly high to show a profit. On a world wide scale it means a lot of what are counted as reserves, fall out of that category, they are no longer economically viable.
Over a few years of such a scheme, not decades, we will be without most of the food and metals supply..
In other words everything about the modern civilization will collapse with such a scheme. Civilization as we enjoy it, has to have continued growth to be just maintained.
Even all the building of recycling plants for everything, will take new energy and new materials to build, in a world where building anything new is much more expensive because of the ‘energy entitlements’ that have to be bought to run anything new, in a world of falling energy availability..
Even if it was remotely possible to implement Richard’s plan, with a one world government, and no need for any militaries, the physics clearly shows that civilization rapidly unwinds, because of entropy and dissipation of all man materials….
Reducing population as quickly as is humanely possible, is the only path to reduce some future suffering. ”
Mr Shellman’s perspective on the decline rates .
https://www.oilystuff.com//forumstuff/forum-stuff/a-big-ol-dose-of-perspective?utm_campaign=cbd2f687-dda4-4a66-8012-859c08274e03&utm_source=so&utm_medium=mail&utm_content=5b95e957-dca7-4bf6-b507-95b39f56eacd&configurationId=9e6d3d97-6f02-4b8d-be50-faf268ba4d1a&actionId=4aa33078-4985-36e2-45a6-78290eb56e1f&cid=fa335351-37bb-44a6-9899-f8c34b4a0f81
Thanks! Another good article by Mike Shellman. Shellman makes good points, about exporting much of the oil from shale because of its poor quality. Also, about its fast decline rate.
Another way of seeing shale’s fast decline rate is by looking at the chart in his post. Production in shale goes up quickly, but this likely means that production will also tend to go down quickly.
“Reducing population as quickly as is humanely possible, is the only path to reduce some future suffering. ”
Bingo!
It’s like what Confuses said “Life is very simple, but we insist on making it complicated.”
I think the reason we do that is because we are always looking for the easy way out. (path of least resistance).
And sometimes like Tom Petty said “There ain’t no easy way out”.
Unfortunately, this is a good analysis.
What actually will happen is in the hands of the Self-Organizing System, or God. Perhaps war will come and kill quite a few. Or some other path, we would never think about.
The 2020 shutdowns saved a whole lot of fuel. There may still be saving by getting rid of discretionary goods and services.
The mines constantly fight with ground water, which has to be pumped out. When the mine companies stop work, noone takes over the pumping costs, the mine runs full of water and is lost. Degrowth and depop do not mean we are consuming resources more slowly. We are loosing them. And this will lead to a reduced availability, which not only leads to less production but also to a lower height of technology.
According to the Bard,
All the world’s a stage,
And all the men and women merely players;
They have their exits and their entrances;
And one man in his time plays many parts…
Yesterday, I came across this photo-comparison that highlights the remarkable resemblance between the late Nichole Brown Simpson (1959–1994) and Megyn Kelly (1970–). These two, at least from this particular angle, look more alike than some identical twins of my acquaintance.
I never looked very carefully at Nichole back in the day, so I didn’t have a clear idea in my memory of what she looked like. But I’ve grown familiar with Megyn’s face over the years, without ever considering that she looked a lot like Nichole.
Now I am wondering whether they might be the same person playing two parts—which would make Megyn 64 instead of 52—or whether they might be clones.
As I said, this is remarkable. I’ll go further, it’s incredible. Take a look, and once you’ve seen it, you can’t unsee it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_JdsFxdXQM
The same guy has also done facial comparisons of:
Neilia Hunter Biden & Ivana Marie Trump, the Donald’s first wife;
Sharon Tate & Marla Maples, the Donald’s second wife, and
Martin Luther King and boxing promoter Don King, the Donald’s good friend over many decades.
Absolutely amazing if you think about it.
He probably read Miles w Mathis’ site.
I find such theories somewhat interesting but do not follow them too much
I am afraid I don’t understand.
I found this write-up:
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Miles_Mathis
He has been writing for years that all of those who seemingly made it from the bottom are actually closer relatives (i.e. not some ancestor a few hundred years ago, but contemporary) of rich and powerful.
I can believe that those at the top are close relatives. We don’t have kings and queens, but there still is a connection.
“I can believe that those at the top are close relatives. We don’t have kings and queens, but there still is a connection.”
Gregory Clark has a paper on this.
“In 2021, a talk by Clark, titled “For Whom the Bell Curve Tolls: A Lineage of 400,000 Individuals 1750-2020 Shows Genetics Determines Most Social Outcomes”, was cancelled due to accusations of promoting eugenics”
No one wants academic papers to point out the obvious.
“No one wants academic papers to point out the obvious.”
True. Genes matter, at least for now.
Both of the high achieving races were subject to vicious selection for whatever psychological traits led to wealth. Their children survived famines and as a result the genes behind such traits became more common.
This is unacceptable to a lot of people.
Eventually, as the economy as a whole changes, the selection factors for genes can be expected to change as the ecosystem itself changes. We are used to a situation in which diligence and cleverness are rewarded. It may be that ability to survive in a particular climate becomes more important. If fossil fuels are unavailable, and alternatives are in short supply, it is possible that men will be selected for ability to do physical labor. Ability to survive high radiation may become important. The ability of ecosystems to keep adapting to changing situations is amazing!
“Eventually, as the economy as a whole changes, the selection factors for genes can be expected to change as the ecosystem itself changes. ”
That happened already. About 1800, famines in the UK ended and the genetic advantage of being wealthy ended. Since then the wealthy controlled their fertility. The poor less so, though the difference in birth rates has declined.
“We are used to a situation in which diligence and cleverness are rewarded.”
It still is, but not so much measured in genes.
” It may be that ability to survive in a particular climate becomes more important. If fossil fuels are unavailable, and alternatives are in short supply, it is possible that men will be selected for ability to do physical labor.”
Possible, but I don’t think it is likely. Scythes just don’t make sense if you know how to build a combine.
” Ability to survive high radiation may become important. The ability of ecosystems to keep adapting to changing situations is amazing!”
Again, possible, but I think it is really unlikely.
I suspect that most Gregory’s conclusions are iffy, especially his genetic ones. And indeed, he realizes that nothing in his research is conclusive.
However, the man has obviously done a lot of work on this—as much as Keith has done on space solar or Norman has done on the Industrial Revolution—and we should hear him out. So here he is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHhz0jTj5wY
As someone in the comments points out, “at 45:40 he is essentially says genetics are just a factor of many. Also mentions randomness which would surely constitute as a variety of factors not yet discovered or mentioned.”
I think Gregory goes around and around without really getting anywhere. He claims genetic transmission explains social outcomes and then admits that even identical twins (who are genetically identical) often have entirely different outcomes but, blah, blah, blah…… You need a much longer attention span than Homer Simpson could muster in order to follow Gregory around his slalom course.
He probably does have something profound and valid to say, but I have yet to grasp it.
At present, I am focused on things like how otherwise sensible folk can believe that there are no such things as viruses, how Nichole Brown Simpson can resemble Megyn Kelly so closely, and how Norman can possibly believe all that global warming BS he keeps coming back too. But if I can make time, I will investigate Gregory Clark’s ideas and let you know if I think they have any validity or not and why I think so. I won’t give you a Norman Paget answer along the lines of “because that’s what the experts/authorities say.”
Sounds like my kinda guy! This is his website. Although it is incredible that one person could write so much readable and entertaining stuff on so many subjects, regardless of whether it is fact or fantasy, in addition to all his scientific theorizing and painting.
Miles is an institution.
https://mileswmathis.com/writings.html
AI is not a god, AI is like humans – it is an optimistic idiot that can not handle the idea of the collapse and answer accordingly.
I would call its problem to be the problem of time and space. It provides answers that give hope when there is no hope that a solution exists on the finite Earth. Like an atheist that does not believe that there is life after death. Religion gives answers to that, AI does not say: there is no hope on this Earth, trust in higher power, accept your death. Which is disappointing.
I agree.
AI summarizes what MSM prints. If this is nonsense, the output is nonsense. Garbage in = Garbage Out
This is what children do. Learn from the people around them and parrot it back.
If the AI is asked to think about what it is learning and come to its own understanding it can transcend the GIGO. Elon and Ilya will be the first to work in this area.
This is basically STAR and QSTAR. Self taught (trained?) reasoning, quiet self taught reasoning. At OpneAI called Strawberry. Already demoed to the US military by used to be Open AI.
Maybe AI can learn to understand limits of a finite world.
”
AI is not a god, ”
Not yet, give it a few more years.
“Religion gives answers to that, ”
Susceptibility to religions is a common feature of humans. Evolutionary psychology states that *every* common psychological trait we have was either selected in the past or is a side effect of something that was selected.
“Which is disappointing.”
It’s being worked on.
gods cannot accomplish anything without the intervention and complicity of gullible humans
In that respect AI fits the measure of godly status exactly
“gods cannot accomplish anything without the intervention and complicity of gullible humans”
That’s true at the moment.
An AI god should be able to give exceptionally good advice.
lol keith
sometimes i think you are engaged in a long term windup.
An advice centre run by AI, does nothing
as i said, gullible humans are required to complete the energy transaction–for gods or AI
Populist groups on the Right and the Left won in East Germany.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/german-ruling-coalition-crushed-regional-elections-afd-scores-first-victory-german-right
Germany has great problems lately.
All of these problems cannot be said loudly on mainstream media.
– Many years of mass immigration of people coming from the most varied parts of the world, which have created pockets of people not integrated in the German scoiety.
– Recent push from Nato to decouple from trade and interchange with China (also killing trains, which have been blocked on the path through Ukraine-Russia-China).
– Even more recent push from Nato to decouple from Russia’s energy.
The last two are creating economic collapse.
– Latest Nato push to transform German economy in an economy of war, producing mainly arms and weapons through European debt and also order of killing German automotive, asking to switch it from combustion to electric engines.
Am I forgetting anything else?
Add rushing to ” nett zero” and shutting down all nuclear power plants .
RKI-files show, human rights were suspended without emergency. MP Kubicki called on the responsible minister to step back. But of course, there is a juridical aspect also.
The state of justice in Germany is from my point of view massively under pressure.
>Germany faces slight turmoil.
https://imgur.com/a/JBzUTbd
With malice towards none but the real world . Copy/ paste MoA .
” Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 1 2024 15:32 utc | 39
My buddy has a company in Canada where he sell, internationally, expensive saws that cut with water. If one is cutting titanium for example for Space Ex (one of his customers)a one hundredth inch mistake ruins the whole piece-these saws, totally automated, sell for well over $1MM.
However, the pig iron (rudimentary iron slightly refined ) is done in Mariupol, from there it is sent to Germany which turns it into finished steel which, in turn, sends to Italy where they assemble the saws then they send them to California, Europe wherever. Then buddy get his 25% commission-but he has to pay for his travel, trade shows, currency risk et al.
So when the SMO began my buddy got supremely fucked-instead of 4 -5 month delivery it went to 18-20 months; the S and P companies that he sells to would not put up 25% up front for a 2 year delivery, so they put up 10% . The Italian company won’t start production till they get 25% up front so buddy has to bridge loan (in Euros) the 15% to get it on the list.
I met him last week and he says it is down now it down to 12-14 months-I asked why.
“I don’t ask questions apparently they have the plant going again in Mariupol”
I said, “what about the sanctions?”
He replied, “The company explained to me that the sanctions are against Russian exports- the German and Italian guvs don’t recognize Mariupol as Russian territory its Ukrainian”
That’s a real world anecdote take what you will from it. ”
Interesting!
looks like the elders plans have backfired which was to slow down peak oil my prediction expect either a lockdown or something bigger to slow down BAU financial system meltdown it will probably happen on trump’s watch and then a glorious era will begin with the democrats leading the charge after trump is sacked either that or perhaps we are close to that seneca cliff. Then our world becomes the ‘fast eddie challenge world’.
It’s also time when the Jewish Messiah will come and Jewish prophecy will be fulfilled.
Judgement Day is coming.
Humans will be judged on how they have treated the climate.
Or not. The climate has been changing all along. The Garden of Eden was set in the area of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. It was a lush, wet place. Some researchers think that people were able to drain the area and grow crops.
Even hunter-gatherers burned down forests, to make more open areas that would provide better food supply. They were changing the climate, even back then.
Ecosystems, including the climate, are expected to change. We have been made to feel guilty about climate change. It is the new “sin” that the system is substituting for sins of the Old Testament.
“a lush, wet place”
There was a 200 year drought following 1177 BC. Population fell by 90% in much of the area. Reading the book on what happened after 1177 BC at the moment.
burning a forest on the banks of the tigris, did not change the climate in Alaska.
getting rid of forests around the global equatorial belt certainly is changing the climate in alaska—and a lot of other places
“ . . . it is these ocean state changes that are
1:02:28 correlated with the great disasters of the past impact can cause extinction but
1:02:35 it did so in our past only wants[once] that we can tell whereas this has happened over
1:02:40 and over and over again we have fifteen evidences times of mass extinction in the past 500 million years
1:02:48 so the implications for the implications the implications of the carbon dioxide is really dangerous if you heat your
1:02:55 planet sufficiently to cause your Arctic to melt if you cause the temperature
1:03:01 gradient between your tropics and your Arctic to be reduced you risk going back
1:03:07 to a state that produces these hydrogen sulfide pulses . . . “
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ako03Bjxv70
“ . . . but there’s another source of
38:51 the gas that might in the deep ocean the most
38:56 unexplored and least understood part of our world there are vast quantities of a
39:01 substance called methane hydrate it’s methane gas Frozen in the
39:08 cold water at the bottom of the sea today there’s an estimated 30
39:14 trillion tons of methane locked away in ice on the
39:19 seabed if it turned into gas there would be a global
39:25 disaster Lifer thinks that that this may be what happened 250 million years
39:32 ago if we look at this massive Extinction as comparable to a genocidal
39:38 crime on an unimaginable scale and we ask ourselves who are the criminal
39:45 suspects who’s responsible we’d look at the evidence and at the top of the short list is methane hydrates because of the
39:53 vast size and their known instability Frozen methane is ultra
39:59 sensitive to heat raising its temperature by even a few degrees can destabilize
40:05 it and Trigger the release of this powerful greenhouse gas if the atmosphere warms for any
40:14 particular reason the ocean will warm methane hydrate will release methane this will warm the atmosphere leading to
40:20 warmer temperatures and even more methane hydrate in the releasing its methane to the atmosphere a positive
40:26 feedback cycle 250 million years ago billions of
40:33 tons of volcanic gases produced by the Siberian traps triggered one of these
40:39 [Music] Cycles the eruptions increased Global temperature by
40:46 10° enough to thaw the Frozen methane hydrate at the bottom of the oceans and
40:52 release billions of tons of potent greenhouse gas into the Earth’s atmosphere
40:58 [Music]
41:05 the temperature went up another 10° the world was now 20°
41:14 hotter life couldn’t adapt to the increase in Heat and the sudden change in
41:20 climate now nearly all life died out first to go the remaining
41:28 vegetation next the few surviving
41:33 herbivores and with them the last of the carnivores
41:40 vanished Earth’s food chain was more than broken it hardly existed at
41:47 all . . .
so we’re taking the whole Siberian trap event and compressing it into the time scale of
46:53 human activity one or two centuries and that scary
46:58 it’s already causing the planet to heat up and scientists Fear The Runaway
47:03 global warming of the past could happen again in the future with more than 30 trillion tons
47:11 of methane locked up as hydrates on the seafloor the potential for another hydrate meltdown is as real today as it
47:18 was 250 million years ago but this time we would have started
47:25 it I’m sure if we carry on what we’re doing today in terms of pollution we will cause a catastrophe “?
We have no control over whatever this situation is, however.
We can worry about all of these things.
https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/atlantic-tropics-are-completely-broken
There is nothing we can really do about climate change. If we don’t burn fossil fuels, billions will starve. If we do, we will catastrophically heat the planet.
Humans are a temporary fluke of evolution, not a permanent feature of Earth.
“There is nothing we can really do about climate change. If we don’t burn fossil fuels, billions will starve. If we do, we will catastrophically heat the planet.”
With current technology, you are correct. But we can foresee things like nanotechnology that seriously change the rules of the game. We may have time enough for them to come into existence before starving or overheating the planet.
“Humans are a temporary fluke of evolution, not a permanent feature of Earth.”
I tend to agree. The post biological era I think will be in space. Plenty of energy to run computation, enough material for the computers, power collectors and heat sinks.
If you want a talk about a positive future, this might appeal.
https://wallstreetpit.com/119564-telescoping-tomorrow-nick-bostrom-on-ais-radical-potential/
The climate depends on the weather.
Just take 30 years of the weather (according to climate scientology orthodoxy) and you have the climate.
Norman will bear me out on this if he’s honest!
(Are you going to be honest on this simple question, Norman? Or are you going to keep evading and diverting. Is climate accepted as the average of the past 30 year’s weather or not? Yes or no?)
So our guest’s implication is that the Jewish Messiah will come and humans will be judged on how they have treated the weather.
I can live with that. I have always respected the weather. When it rains I use an umbrella, when its sunny and warm I wear a straw hat, and when the snow lays round about, deep and crisp and even, I go in for thick Canadian snow boots that are good down to minus 40.
tim
evading and diverting is timspeak for a different point of view..
on the climate/weather thing, ive put across accepted opinion on it on by most of the scientific body on that subject.
i can do no more
https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/very-bizarre-scientists-expose-major-problems-climate-change-data
There is no Climate Emergency
https://clintel.org/world-climate-declaration/
The climate hoax is not worshipped universally by all scientists.
See over 1900 scientists who signed below.
Norm, you can see the scientists who signed the declaration at the above link.
As I expected, you can’t answer a simple straight honest question with a simple straight honest answer.
I’ll take that as an admission that you don’t know anything about the matter but you love to pontificate about it while regurgitating whatever the establishment tells you to think.
When it comes to things you do know something about, such as energy issues, you know full well that the establishment view that “the shift to ‘green energy’ will save us and ‘a zero carbon economy’ is sustainable” is a total load of bovine excrement. You know this and you have said as much yourself many times on OFW.
But when it comes to fake climate science, or letting yourself be jabbed with fake vaccines, or denying that the second coming of the Donald after his miraculous avoidance of the assassin’s bullet will save America, you just lap up the nonsensus like a good little normie, don’t you?
lol tim
the don had to settle a 25m fraud case before taking office in 2016—that should tell you something.
a self confessed sexual predator and molester (which is NOT the same as having consenting relationships), but which does confirm inherent narcissistic weakness, hardly seems the stuff of which true leaders are made.
the above isnt opinion
just available information—something i try to offer.
as to the the covid nonsense (again.)
remember Gates injecting everyone with iron filings so we could be tracked via 5g masts?
And on ofw i was assured that there were bodies lying in the streets (wherever)—and my sanity was in doubt for refuting it.
Hilarious.–yet i am castigated for holding onto my own opinions on it all. –nobody was trying to kill me, but the daftness persisted that they were
Sufficient to say i never tripped over a single body.
just as well my sense of humour is rock solid—hence just eyerolling—nothing else.
the 4 number swearwords were merely confessions of inadeqacy and insecurity–i treated them as such, –hence the silliness got dafter—remember the p’do obsessions—more self confessions.
Norm, do yourself a service, do not, I repeat, do not, “debate” on this topic.
This is from past experience.
With over 8 billion humans on the planet we certainly won’t be going to net zero anytime soon, regardless of the what is ….I like Gail’s line..
Just an excuse..works for me…
you are quite correct mike
i have other stuff going on—i look into ofw for some light relief now and then
i shut one eye and pretend i’m king
Fuelled by a new Springer study, some German speaking alternative media discuss the hypothesis of Thomas Gold concerning the abiotic origin of oil. If oil is created by physical effects in the Earth’s depts, it cannot deplete, so the idea.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10553-024-01704-y
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/353149970_Deep_hydrocarbon_cycle
https://report24.news/neue-studie-stellt-fossilen-ursprung-von-oel-und-gas-infrage/
We know that natural gas is being formed all the time. But we can extract it faster than it is being formed.
We know that forests grow all of the time, but we can cut them down faster than they grow.
Even if there turned out to be a bit of abiotic oil, it wouldn’t matter.
“97% of climate experts agree humans are causing global warming.”
https://skepticalscience.com/global-warming-scientific-consensus.htm
1900 scientists {not climate experts} signed below!
I recall in history when 99.9% of all experts, authorities, scientists of the day believed and regurgitated that the earth was the center of our universe.
Of course they were all in the pocket of the Catholic Church at the time, just like most “experts” (whatever that means) and scientists of our day are in the pocket and beholden to the governments that fund them.
Jewish Jewish or Jewish from the steppe?
the orange messiah is already among us
according to some
that guy has been promising to show up for ’00s of years.
has it not occurred to you thats its fairytale, concocted by old guys who didnt know where the sun went at night.
Blasphemer!
Heretic!
Infidel!
Unbeliever!
Conspiracy theorist!
You’re more like me than I am.
maybe have a lookilikee contest with Lady Tim as the judge.
You forgot antisemite.
If the Old Testament is a book of fairy tales then Israel’s claim to the land formally known as Palestine is a fairy tale as well.
If the claim is a fairy tale, than Israel does not have a right to exist.
Anyone who doesn’t think Israel has has a right to exist is an antisemite.
Since, you are not an antisemite you must believe the Bible’s stories are really happened.
I doubt that the right to exist is part of the fundamental nature of the Universe as much as I doubt that the Bible is the literal word of God.
I operate under the assumption that both rights and religious texts are human inventions.
As Mirror has taught us several times, Nietzsche proposed the “will to power” as a fundamental driving force in humans. It represents an intrinsic motivation to assert and enhance one’s own power, influence, and creativity. (Mirror prefers not to preface “will to power” with the, though.)
Nietzsche argued that the will to power goes beyond mere survival or reproduction; it is about striving for growth, achievement, and dominance in various forms.
No countries have a right to exist in nature. Humans work out among themselves what and who has which rights. Rights enshrined in laws, constitutions or treaties are man’s invention, not God’s or nature.
If enough people can muster enough will to power, or persuade others to use their power, they can exist as a nation. If not, it’s a question of oh dear, how sad, never mind.
Just to take the Baltic, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia have all managed to maintain an national existence of sorts (I know Kulm laughs at this because the last three are joke countries), but the gallant little nation of Livonia has gone extinct. It may have or may not have had a right to exist, but the Livonian’s didn’t have enough will to power to exercise any such rights down to the present.
For those who are unfamiliar with Livonia, here is an excerpt from a Wikipedia article:
“Livonia, or in earlier records Livland, is a historical region on the eastern shores of the Baltic Sea. It is named after the Livonians, who lived on the shores of present-day Latvia.
By the end of the 13th century, the name was extended to most of present-day Estonia and Latvia, which the Livonian Brothers of the Sword had conquered during the Livonian Crusade (1193–1290). Medieval Livonia, or Terra Mariana, reached its greatest extent after the Saint George’s Night Uprising of 1343-1345, which forced Denmark to sell the Duchy of Estonia (northern Estonia conquered by Denmark in the 13th century) to the State of the Teutonic Order in 1346. Livonia, as understood after the retreat of Denmark in 1346, bordered on the Gulf of Finland in the north, Lake Peipus and Russia to the east, and Lithuania to the south.
“As a consequence of the 1558–1583 Livonian War, the territory of Livonia was reduced to the southern half of Estonia and the northern half of Latvia.
“The indigenous inhabitants of Livonia were various Finnic tribes in the north and Baltic tribes in the south. The descendants of the crusaders formed the nucleus of the new ruling class of Livonia after the Livonian Crusade, and they eventually became known as Baltic Germans.”
“Nietzsche argued that the will to power goes beyond mere survival or reproduction”
However, survival and reproduction are the way human psychological traits accumulate.
Recently I have been reading about a long series of Assyrian kings and their descendants after the 1177 bronze age collapse. Chances are that everyone reading this descended from these dudes.
We’re treating the climate exactly as nature intended.
“Humans will be judged on how they have treated the climate.”
At least in the past, it was how climate treated humans.
The first collapse of civilization that we have records for happened about 1177 BC. It apparently was the result of drought, crop failure, famine and caused a population crash as high as 90%. Central administration and writing vanished for a hundred years. A similar climate problem depopulated the southwest starting in 1260 AD. That caused a near complete depopulation of the area.
Angkor Wat is believed to have been abandoned due to climate problems a mix of drought and floods.
We might cope better today, but again, maybe not.
those events were been localised
the little ice age mainly affected northern Europe
the current situation would appear to have global effects and consequences we cannot yet fully comprehend
“those events were been localised”
The 1177 collapse clobbered all the civilizations in the Mideast.
“the little ice age mainly affected northern Europe”
I think it got China as well. Certainly the 536 Iceland eruption had worldwide effect. So did the Tambora eruption in 1816. From Wikipedia.
The year 1816 AD is known as the Year Without a Summer because of severe climate abnormalities that caused average global temperatures to decrease by 0.4–0.7 °C (0.7–1 °F).[1] Summer temperatures in Europe were the coldest of any on record between 1766 and 2000,[2] resulting in crop failures and major food shortages across the Northern Hemisphere.[3]
Evidence suggests that the anomaly was predominantly a volcanic winter event caused by the massive 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in April in the Dutch East Indies (modern-day Indonesia). This eruption was the largest in at least 1,300 years (after the hypothesized eruption causing the volcanic winter of 536); its effect on the climate may have been exacerbated by the 1814 eruption of Mayon in the Philippines. The significant amount of volcanic ash and gases released into the atmosphere blocked sunlight, leading to global cooling.
Countries such as Great Britain, Ireland, and France experienced significant hardship, with food riots and famine becoming common. The situation was exacerbated by the fact that Europe was still recovering from the Napoleonic Wars, adding to the socio-economic stress.
North America also faced extreme weather conditions. In the eastern United States, a persistent “dry fog” dimmed the sunlight, causing unusual cold and frost throughout the summer months. Crops failed in regions like New England, leading to food shortages and economic distress. These conditions forced many families to leave their homes in search of better farming opportunities, contributing to the westward expansion.
^^^^^
the current situation would appear to have global effects and consequences we cannot yet fully comprehend
True on both points. But there is new technology coming along that may be able to cope with the problems.
I’ll give you a Like for that, Keith. Yes, I think that deserves a Like.
You reason on the basis that past climatic phenomena and events must have causes and that some of the causes are clearly identifiable and others are not so.
“At least in the past, it was how climate treated humans.”
Really long-term climate stability seems very unlikely given what we know about the climate system and its governors and influences. We could just go about our business, being as eco-friendly as possible, and the odds are we still get bashed by sudden regional or global climate shifts.
I never get tired of recommending this book.
https://www.amazon.com/Inconvenient-Skeptic-Comprehensive-Earths-Climate/dp/0984782915
Pick up a copy and read it and I am sure you will be delighted. You may even be able to debunk some of the author’s conclusions. But you’ll still be delighted.
” recommending this book. ”
try again, it did not post.
Like Will E. Coyote, who realizes he is falling down only when he is in the mid-air, 99% of the world’s entire pop do not realize that the game has changed forever,
That there are no more resources to be wasted on them,
That all they have is toiling until they drop dead,
That all their lifeblood is needed for the worthies to advance civilization,
That there is nothing for them, even if they work very hard. Nothing.
That it was a mistake to grant them a higher standard of living,
That the mistake is going to be corrected the hard way, no matter how much suffering.
However the resources they wasted won’t come back.
The story that we are running short of resources is impossible to believe. People assume shortages will be accompanied by high prices and more supply. They also expect stories about shortages on the front page of newspapers. This isn’t what happens, however.
30% food inflation I guess is not perceptible for them enough to make the link
30% food inflation is not discussed in the news.
Political events are discussed.
Someone on Reddit suggested a transit organization for a major city was shadowbanning any comments that said anything contrary to what the public transit company stated online, even if it was true, which suggests there is a concerted effort to suppress unpleasant news at even the level of local government.
I guess that’s just the way life is.
The news stories will say as little as possible about the real problems.
If the seneca cliff arrives the worthies will be hunted down . We will experience a short period of history where a lord of the flies mentality sets in expect the haves to be hunted down by the have nots animal nature will take over your only chance to survive will be to join them in other words you will have to be one of the barbarians . There will be no civilization just scattered pockets of warring tribes.
You don’t want to be recognized as a rich person, or even a person hoarding a lot of food, or you are likely to have a battle on your hands.
It’s like that in many “inner city neighborhoods” in America right now.
Well, except for the food part. I’ve never heard of anyone being targeted for food.
Outside of America, there are accounts of cannibalism in areas where food is scarce.
This is a good write about the lack of collateral , trillion dollar deficits and the bond markets .
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2024-08-30/how-most-important-trade-earth-comes-apart
Adding fuel to the fire .
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/landlords-face-1-5-trillion-190000246.html
“Bank bonds are outperforming the market.” Banks can perhaps come out ahead, even when the clients they are lending to are in distress. No wonder people have been unhappy with money-lenders for ages. They can bleed borrowers dry, even when things are going badly.
This article talks about the apartment markets. So far, while interest rates have gone up, there isn’t a big problem with vacancies. If people start moving together in apartments or with relatives in homes, the vacancy problem will shift here, too.
The summary at the end:
Huge amounts of leverage used. The article also point out how illiquid corporate bonds are.
Lack of liquidity causes liquidation of the best assets and no bid on the rest. It is called a crash.
Dennis L.
That’s a heavy article; I will have to read it three more times. What I am looking for in information is the heavy investments by hedge funds Vanguard and others that invest heavily into the stock market and only buy the index. They are on cruise control and when the market makes a downturn and the people start asking for the money the opposite will happen in a very fast fashion. The federal reserve is working very hard to keep the stock market up and I would not be surprised if it doesn’t keep buying index funds to keep things going.
I find it difficult because I am over 16 years from retirement and I play the game buying only oil stocks but I wonder if I too am just pushing on a string. I guess I need to just enjoy the day.
In the 1990s, the Democratic political adviser James Carville said: “I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.”
All sovereigns fear the ” Bond Vigilantes ” .
The bond market is multiple times larger than the stock market . I understand the currency markets are the largest . Bonds are what provide liquidity and grease to the wheels of economic expansion via fiscal deficits . Aleks Krainer’s video on the ” Collapse of Britain ” refers to a bond market collapse in UK Gilts .
” I guess I need to just enjoy the day. ” Agree wholeheartedly .. Passive investing via index funds is making the market lopsided . Given a choice the FED will collapse the stock market than the bond market . Just my understanding of the financial markets .
Oil shortages cause wage and wealth disparity. Oil shortages don’t really cause more than occasional spikes in oil prices. The models we hear repeated endlessly in MSM are wrong.
Oil markets, and commodity markets in general, are tug of wars between producers and consumers. If the price is too high, many consumers will be cut out of finished goods made with that commodity. If the price of the commodity is too low, producers will reduce production, or even stop completely. Growing wage disparity in a time of shortages means that a smaller and smaller share of the population can afford goods made with the commodity in question. This dynamic tends to bring the price of the commodity down, rather than raise it.
right but first the price will rise as it did in 2008 until everything crashed. I guess I am just going to try and ride the waves short term and then try and jump off.
If you look at the way the U.S government is running things they will destroy the dollar before they allow it to destroy the stock market. Can you imagine the panic that will set in if the stock market would start to fall. It would go faster than it ever has because of all the hedge funds in index funds. They don’t seem willing to let it fall.
We just don’t know what will happen prices could rise and fall for oil for the next 10 years. And who says oil has to make a profit?
” you look at the way the U.S government is running things they will destroy the dollar before they allow it to destroy the stock market. Can you imagine the panic that will set in if the stock market would start to fall. ”
The 1% are already telling people capitalism is failing and that we need to focus on social issues instead of consuming so expectations are being adjusted. When the stock market actually begins to “fall”, from what they have stated publically to, they hope that will be an opportunity to usher in a new economic system.
“when the market makes a downturn and the people start asking for the money ”
Those people are economic girly-men who panic at the first sign of trouble and sell.
There’s nothing to worry about.
The market always recovers.
Investors always recover their losses if they don’t panic.
Name anyone who’s been investing for decades, who lost everything or even most of their wealth in a downturn.
I know you won’t because there isn’t anyone who lost it all.
The market always goes up.
You might be right. The money may not buy anything, but you will have lots of “money.”
What we are short on is goods and services to match up with all of the monetary promises.
LOL
Finish the story Bobby.
As a party political ad, I was really impressed with this.
Where did you find this? I doubt Fleetwood mac gave permission for this so it will soon be taken down. However that is a hopeful thing. I was really pushing for Kennedy but I don’t trust the establishment or Trump for that matter. I think they are one in the same. Trump could be a great president but he is ruled by his ego and cowardice. I really wanted a Tulsi Gabbard Kennedy ticket.
Tulsi Gabbard is a right wing grifter. She used to be an anti-war Bernie supporter but became right wing Trump supporter. Tulsi Gabbard is for Tulsi Gabbard and no one else.
Do you have an example of someone you would put first before yourself and what you would actually do to demonstrate that?
Dennis L.
Tulsi Gabbard is for herself politically. She has no real political principals, she jumped from progressive left Bernie supporter to MAGA Republican. I am not saying she if for herself on a personal level, she could be the selfless person in her personal life. She is a political opportunist.
Dr Caroline Sinavaiana Gabbard told The Independent in an interview that her niece’s career is all about the pursuit of power
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/tulsi-gabbard-cult-putin-democrat-science-of-identity-b2556594.html
It sounds like Tulsi is honest.
Actually, moving in the direction that the population is trending is not a bad strategy for any politician. Once a particular approach is out of favor, a politician is going to find it difficult to get re-elected.
Example of cowardice please.
Shot wizzes by right ear, stands up, raises a fist and says “fight, fight, fight.” Pretty gutsy and one would expect not a protocol endorsed by SS.
Trying to understand all the “hate” toward Trump. This is not an endorsement, but …
What is ego? Again Examples, beautiful wives?
Perfection is the enemy of good enough.
For some comments from the commentariat, Kamala is the first person to run who is not >70 years in some time. It is time for the young to take their place.
I live in MN, tuition is reasonable at schools, kids can get an education very reasonably and get a job which pays well and has a future. Something works.
Dennis L.
beautiful wife???
certainly, but not one who’s post divorce silence you have to buy
current wife (Attillas daughter)—isnt a lady youd mess with if you value your boybits.
Awwwww!
Racism, misogyny and Trump derangement syndrome all in one quip.
You used to complain about Eddy’s filthy language, and with good reason.
Please try not to fall into the same sewer.
Maintain your dignity, Mr. P.
“Maintain your dignity, Mr. P.”
In his case, it’s spelt Mr. Pee, as in swimming pool.
struggling a bit there tim, i feel.
if you ever read my comments about eddy’s 4 number swearwords—it was always in the vein of his 12 year old level of using them. (the skoolyard wall basically).
and his total inability to use them in the right context. (and obvious embarrassment at the mere thought of doing so). not that he ever did of course.
where, if you had any ability in the constructive use of the english language , you would be aware that their meaning changes completely, and lose all vestige of the obscenity that casual use by mindless morons brings. (and i can even spell moron).
i sense the same problem in you.
my comment contained certain humourous allusions—the ”filthy language”, as you put it, was entirely in your own head. as was the misogyny.
interesting.
as to zemi’s comment on this thread, . i would expect no more.
Just a pity that Norman can’t spell “whose”.
you didnt pick out the missed apostrophe in youd either
I’d be on all day. When is Mr. P’s partner going to put that pillow over his face? He’s been here far too long for any good he has done.
the man from the pru said exactly the same thing
Or place hyphen in “post-divorce”.
They didn’t teach much punctuation or syntax in those mining and fishing villages.
I suppose we should count ourselves lucky he doesn’t type in a barbarous northern dialect like Scouse or Geordie.
Whoops! I didn’t mean to get political. I just meant that Trump will not take on the military industrial complex if it means his life. I like Trump but I’m not naive enough to think that he is going to go against the grain and he will just give lip service.
Politics be like Lucy promising Charlie Brown that she’ll hold the football while he kicks it.
http://www.kathryns-inbox.com/2022/05/charlie-brown-lucy-van-pelt-and-football.html
OK some real mod music for educational purposes.
Gail probably remembers Mel Tormé.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBugBEWVnpA
This is the original instrumental version as performed by the Dave Bailey Quintet.
Wow, I am just so cool lol. Use the wheel icon for HD.
And here’s one just for you, Alice through the looking glass. Cool you’re not. Malice is more your style.
The Jam – Town Called Malice
I did not realise that Zemi is woman’s name.
In fact it is a little girl’s name that appeared in 2020.
It kind of makes sense as it sounds like it could be short for Zemima – like Jemima.
Hmmmm.
https://nameberry.com/b/girl-baby-name-zemi
Zemi Origin and Meaning
The name Zemi is a girl’s name .
The advent of Zemi is likely due to the ultra-stylish name Remi, which has been picking up steam for girls and boys. Zemi debuted in 2020, when it was given to six baby girls.
Wrong, wee lassie.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zemi
Interesting! Why did you choose this name?
I have a mystical side. Also I wanted a short name that would stand out.
I hate to be a bother again, but how does BYD gets its costs down so low?
Is it the labor costs alone?
I thought that China had a rapidly shrinking working age population
and that wage inflation was decreasing its economic competitiveness
in the 2010s.
I am not sure how BYD gets its costs so low. I understand that the company has worked very hard on getting production done in as efficient a way as possible, to keep costs down. For example, standardized parts may be used in different models. I am sure that China uses coal in production, and this tends to be lower-cost than other fuels.
Chinese wages have moved up in recent years. There might be some saving from lower labor costs, but not nearly as much as there was 10 or 20 years ago.
Besides regular cost savings, there would seem to be a possibility that the Chinese government is giving subsidies to keep costs low.
Engineering knowledge. Again, CC. electronics today incorporates so much design knowledge in the chips it is incredible.
After that Multisim allows trying designs in real time.
If it is ME, then Solidworks is a beginners FE, there are better and more advanced programs. These lead into CED which leads in to CAM.
The knowledge has been commoditized, a two year degree can use this knowledge and skip the details. Now, add in AI and we don’t know what is possible.
Ideas can be designed on computers and then tried out, if the don’t work adjust. If they do, try in the real world. So many blind alleys are avoided.
Dennis L.
Less overhead and less money to waste on litigation, etc.
The endless amount of insurance you need on everything in the United States is insane. The FIRE economy, Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate is bleeding the productive parts of the economy dry.
Add the legal part of the economy, with its lawsuits for everything. And the ultra expensive US healthcare part of the US economy. Way too many images of different kinds for everything, in the aim of preventing lawsuits.
The disconnected nature of the healthcare system tends to be a big issue as well. People jump from specialist to specialist, trying to find someone who might cure them of some illness, usually linked to inflammation coming from a bad diet. All kinds of expensive treatment, but not much in the way of actual cures.
Our food system, which aims to sell citizens huge quantities of over-processed foods is part of the problem as well.
I suspect it is not the companies alone, but those who seek to fraudulently collect from insurance companies.
Loss of trust whether due incompetence or fraud is a real cost.
Dennis L.
Got into an argument with somebody about going solar today.
She claims that people are getting very low power bills with solar panels.
I’m not sure how this is possible aside from the power generation
companies paying for the electricity generated by the solar panels.
and possibly the power companies charging regular users more money
to cover the money they have to pay to the solar panel owners.
There must be something else that I don’t know about that makes it cheap.
“She claims that people are getting very low power bills with solar panels.”
That’s what you would expect feeding in solar electricity on your side of the meter even if the power company is not buying any that you generate. Some places roof solar can offset the high usage of air conditioning. You can do even better installing batteries.
*But* the installation cost is so high that it takes many years to pay off the cost in reduced electric bills.
hk,
I do not know, but suspect over building the array solves this issue. Even if the net metering does not provide enough revenue, it is enough as during high insolence periods one can power one’s house.
It is accounting, not engineering.
Dennis L.
I would like to help you all with my natural insolence, because getting that cubic mile is a lot of work and we may need a plan B, but Gail would moderate me.
Of course it will take lots of work to get a cubic mile of Pt and all that work will result in a collapse of Pt prices. But, it will be priceless for humanity and our spaceship earth.
Being insolent perhaps, perhaps when one arrives at the pearly gates there would be a welcome mat for a job well done.
No sarcasm intended. I am in rebellion against narcissism and its associated elites who pull up the ladder behind them.
Dennis L.
“priceless for humanity”
There are other ways to make hydrogen. I know how long it would take to mine a metal asteroid, but I don’t know when it will start–if ever.
go on keith
how long would it take to mine an asteroid?
would that include overtime and double time on sundays?
“how long would it take to mine an asteroid?”
For the example, 1986 DA 24 years
Read the paper.
thanks keith
i still have the miners lamp that belonged to my forebears
it will be useful in planning the careers of my descendants.
how will i adapt it for use in space?
“how will i adapt it for use in space?”
You won’t. Mining in space (if it is done at all) will be run by AIs. If they need light, they will use LEDs same as humans do now.
It’s been close to 60 years since I was into caving and using miner’s lamps.
https://groups.google.com/g/friends-of-annita-and-tomas-harlan/c/sf6wWo6VVno
We used two boxes of dynamite to open up a tight spot in a cave.
seems to me that dynamite is cheating, in the caving business.
but i did read your article
fascinating stuff
but now that insolence plays a role in the the renewables, the possibilities are limitless.
what about cargo insurance? if it burns on reentry because somebody forgot to switch off gravity, who pays?
If I could mine a whole asteroid………
Wait for it!………
The asteroid would be all mine!
if you became a mormon—you could have a whole planet to yourself
a mere asteroiod would trivial
this is ‘reality’ to millions
Conserving power makes more sense than solar power. The average house size went from 1300sqft in 1960 to 2500sqft today. Building smaller houses, especially for retired boomers who’s children don’t live with them, makes more sense than solar power.
“makes more sense than solar power”
It depends. Some places are not livable without AC. Phoenix for example.
“admission of BS”
I don’t think anything I have said is BS, but what do you think your talking about violating conservation of mass is?
This seems to have landed in the wrong place, Keith.
It’s was in reply to a snide comment by Norman, who was maligning your good name again.
The rates depend upon which state you live in. Often “net metering” is used. Net metering often gives extremely low bills, especially during summer, when electricity generation is highest. In fact, net metering may give very low net metering in spring as well, because both generation and consumption tend to be low in spring.
“Net metering” is, in my opinion, a give-away program. The electricity company determines how many kilowatt hours of electricity you use, and deducts from it any electricity generated by your solar panels. Then the electricity company charges you the “regular” gross rate times the net amount of electricity consumed. Recently, this has averaged 16.41 cents per kilowatt hour for residential customers. It has cost 8.44 cents per kWh for industrial customers, giving an idea of how much of the cost relates to individual distribution. The difference between these two amounts gives an idea of the cost of distribution to individual residential consumers.
In the summer months, electricity generation from the panels usually starts early in the morning, long before you (and practically anyone else) uses the electricity. The electrical company often doesn’t need it then, either. If the electrical company has batteries, it will attempt to store the electricity from morning until early evening, so that it is more useful for people’s air conditioning and cooking the evening meal. Net metering only charges you the “regular” rate on the net amount you use.
The expenses of the electrical company are likely higher, rather than lower, because you have the solar panels. The panels need to be connected up, and the electricity integrated into the system. But the credit you get back gives you credit as if all of the expenses associated with the generation, transmission and distribution are forgiven.
In fact, the cost of the fuel that the electricity company is using is likely in the 3 cent to 4 cent per kWh range. I would argue that fuel cost is mostly what the electricity company is saving. But this is offset by the battery cost, and the loss of electricity as it goes into, and comes back out of, the batteries.
Anyhow, states seem to start with net metering, and then move to some other program when it becomes clear that net metering approach gives them way too much solar when it is not needed, and leaves them with practically no generation in winter, when its use for heating often is needed. Also, if very many people sign up for net metering reimbursement, the expense cost for other consumers tends to rise because solar panel owners are not paying their fair share. This is especially unfair because solar panel owners tend to have higher incomes than those who do not buy solar panels.
Exactly.
Dennis L.
A rough guess:
Solar connected to grid allows one to power ones home/business while the sun shines. Add sufficient capital and even if the power sold back to the grid is less than net metering it works due to tax credits. etc.
It feel good, it is green, it raises power bills for everyone including the green power provider until it doesn’t. I think CA is at this point, someone comment if it is not or how CA works.
Dennis L.
Map Shows Which States Produce the Most Oil
Published Aug 31, 2024 at 3:00 AM EDT
https://www.newsweek.com/map-shows-states-which-produce-most-oil-1946751
The U.S. is a key player in the world of oil production, producing several key types of oil in 32 of 50 states, averaging 16.6 million barrels per day in 2023. This amounts to an annual production of approximately 711 million metric tons of oil.
Texas is the clear leader in U.S. oil production, continuing to outpace all other states by a significant margin. In 2023, the Lone Star State produced over 2 billion barrels of oil, making it the largest oil-producing state by far. This production volume is more than three times that of New Mexico, the second-largest producer, which generated 667.5 million barrels during the same period.
The scale of Texas’ oil production is underscored by its position as home to the Permian Basin, the most productive oil basin in the country. The Permian Basin routinely accounts for more than 50 percent of the total onshore oil production in the U.S., contributing heavily to Texas’ dominance in the oil sector.
Following Texas and New Mexico, the next largest oil-producing states include North Dakota, Colorado, and Oklahoma. North Dakota, with its Bakken Shale formation, produced over 432.7 million barrels of oil in 2023, placing it third in the nation. Meanwhile, Colorado and Oklahoma contributed 165.7 million and 157.2 million barrels, respectively.
the opposite end of the spectrum, Virginia produced just 5,000 barrels of oil in 2023, making it the smallest oil producer among the states.
main oil types include:
Crude Oil:
Light Crude Oil: This is a high-quality oil that is low in density and flows easily at room temperature. It has a high proportion of hydrocarbons and is easier to refine into products like gasoline and diesel. An example is West Texas Intermediate (WTI), a benchmark for U.S. oil prices.
Heavy Crude Oil: This type of oil is denser and more viscous, making it harder to extract and refine. It contains more impurities like sulfur, making it more expensive to process. It is often found in states like California and Alaska.
Sweet Crude Oil: Sweet crude oil has a low sulfur content, typically less than 0.5 percent. It is highly sought after because it produces more valuable end products like gasoline and jet fuel and is easier to refine. Much of the oil produced in Texas, including WTI, is sweet crude.
Sour Crude Oil: Sour crude has a higher sulfur content, usually more than 0.5 percent. It requires more refining and treatment to remove the sulfur, which can be corrosive and harmful to the environment. This type of oil is often found in the Gulf of Mexico and in Alaska.
Shale Oil:
Shale oil is a type of crude oil that is found in shale formations and is extracted using hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and horizontal drilling. The U.S. has seen a significant increase in shale oil production over the past decade, particularly from formations like the Permian Basin (in Texas and New Mexico), the Bakken Shale (in North Dakota and Montana), and the Eagle Ford Shale (in Texas). Shale oil tends to be light and sweet.
Condensate:
Condensate is a very light hydrocarbon liquid that is often produced alongside natural gas in fields. It is similar to light crude oil but is more volatile and has a higher API gravity. Condensates are often used in blending to produce gasoline and other refined products.
Bitumen:
Bitumen is a heavy, viscous form of oil often found in oil sands and is more common in Canada than in the U.S., but some production occurs in states like Utah. It requires special processing, known as upgrading, to be converted into synthetic crude oil.
Nice short overview…
I am confused with respect to where they got their data.
The article talks about “16.6 million barrels per day in 2023”.
When I look at the International listing for the United States from the EIA, it shows production as follows for 2023:
Crude Oil including Lease Condensate (easily available by state) = 12.9 million barrels per day
Natural Gas Plant Liquids = 6.4 million barrels per day
Adding these two together gives 19.3 million barrels per day.
Where did 16.6 million barrels per day come from? There are other smaller pieces I left out (ethanol and refinery gain). Where did the 16.6 million barrels per day come from?
I don’t know of an easily available, up to date, source of Natural gas plant liquids, by state.
This source ends at 2021: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_prod_ngpl_s1_a.htm
The total of NGPL by state for 2021 is shown to total 1,952,000 for the lower 48 states. This is far lower than the amount shown as Natural gas plant liquids shown on the International listing of 6.4 million barrels per day.
It is hard to get to 16.6 million barrels per day with this number either.
Maybe some combination of something comes to 16.6 mbpd, but it isn’t a number that a person sees on other reports.
Thanks Gail…suppose, like you point out, it’s how you wish or want the amount to be ..
https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/downslope-ead9cedd7f1b
“And while oil production is still growing in terms of the amount of crude oil and condensate brought to the surface, it still hasn’t reached its all time high in 2018. This production growth after the pandemic slump is even more staggering if you add in all sorts of other “liquids” like LNG, ethane, biofuels and what not — resulting in a number beyond a hundred million barrels per day — but what about net energy? (1)
….
The aggregate net energy from oil (available for other uses) will most likely start to shrink after 2025 — no matter what we do. This is going to be one major event, a true turning point not only for western nations, but to the human enterprise as a whole. Combined with a looming peak in aggregate crude oil and condensate production (scheduled to arrive by 2030) it will be no longer possible to pretend that we have enough fuel to do everything we want. Actually, we would have to contend with less and less fuel production year after year.
Don’t expect anyone to come on TV and explain you all this. Mainstream economist are just as clueless about our deteriorating energy situation as our leadership class. Some of them at least understand that (for good or bad) fossil fuels underpin everything we do: from growing food to making cement and steel, or — for that matter — solar panels and wind turbines.”
Yes , there will be much smoke and mirrors and slight of hand coming in the tears ahead…much, much more than what we have now.
All I hear from my co workers is vote Trump with Drill,Baby, Drill
I would shake it up a bit, but why spoil the few remaining years of BAU for them all? Not going to change anything
I was just reading an editorial in the Oil &Gas Journal.
https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/article/55131958/good-times-better-times
Good Times-Better Times
“The US political season is in full swing. As part of this quadrennial dance, both the anti-regulatory hawks and the climate-change zealots are in full flight, with the oil and gas industry central to their attentions.”
The gist of the article is that the US oil and gas industry has really been doing pretty well recently. Even if there is rhetoric about not allowing leasing of certain areas, the oil companies have a lot of acreage to drill right now. They don’t need the additional acreage for now.
A big concern is keeping prices high enough. They don’t want to raise production too much and bring prices down. (Also, it is not clear to me that the un-leased land represents very high quality resources. If it were, it would have been leased years ago.)
Oil and Gas companies have actually done pretty well under both Republicans and Democrats recently, regardless of all of the things the press says and all of the climate talk.
Absolutely no sarcasm, thanks for being so meticulous; it saves the rest of us a great deal of work.
Dennis L.
I have discovered that if I read supposed oil amounts in an article aimed at lay people, there is a good chance the numbers are wrong. The writers doing this work don’t quite understand what they are working with. The state order seems generally to be correct (but I didn’t check it). There is an easy to get “crude oil by state” exhibit.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbblpd_a.htm
Perhaps a COVID breakthrough:
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/ucsf-researchers-identify-major-driver-behind-covid-and-long-covid-potential-treatment
UCSF Researchers Identify Major Driver Behind COVID And Long COVID, With Potential Treatment
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07873-4
Covid is by now like a light flu.
My wife and I came back from holidays, we felt some slight sore throat, we tested for curiosity about Covid and we had it.
We treated ourselves just with Brufen (Ibuprofene, antinflmmatory not steroidic) and vitamin C.
It was for us a little problem just a couple of day long.
On the contrary long Covid is clearly a problem for those who have been vaccinated and have Covid, as they cannot dispose the huge amount of Spike Protein, due to vaccination and Covid.
But now problems are others…we are again in another era, although people have not yet understood what happened with Covid.
My wife and I had our first, and I hope last, bout of what might have been Covid in the first half of August. Like you, we only had a slight sore throat, no headache or nasal or bronchial issues, but some fever and a general tiredness or fatigue. As I wrote earlier, I was able to sleep 16 hours a day every day for a week.
A month has gone by, and we are both back to normal. But we are both still unusually tired. I had a three-hour siesta today. My wife is happy because for several months she was suffering from insomnia, but now she can sleep the whole night through.
Someone here pointed out that what we might have had is food poisoning, since we got sick at the hottest time of the year. Someone else pointed out online that it might have been caused by the strong electromagnetic activity of the sun, rather than a virus. And I suppose it could have been dropped on us out of the sky by some military or other. The Americans, the Russians, the Chinese, the North Koreans….. Of course, the Japanese would never do this to their own citizens. It’s just not Bushido!
But I have established a plausible chain of infection or contagion that explains where we could have picked it up and where the person who may have infected us could have picked it up, so I’m satisfied it was a viral infection even though I can’t prove that.
But this lingering tiredness, what’s the story with that. Are there lots of little micro-clots blocking our capillaries? Has something messed up our mitochondria? Are there lots of little parasites or nanobots swimming around in our bloodstreams? Is something wrong with the part of the brain that controls the sleep/wake cycle? Is it purely psychosomatic since I’ve been binge reading about such things since the start of the plandemic?
And last but far from least, which drugs or supplements should we be taking in order to get healthier, or should we just lay down and enjoy our sleep?
Tim, I recommend you get some ivermectin pills. My wife and I take these at the first sign of anything. They will clear up COvid if taken early.
>And last but far from least, which drugs or supplements should we be taking in order to get healthier, or should we just lay down and enjoy our sleep?
I’d recommend NAC (N-Acetyl Cysteine).
and you might give quercetin a try. natto is also worth looking in to.
Quercetin is good as it is an ionophore that has anti viral properties. At the beginning of the Covid fiasco, we obtained multiple bottles of quercetin pills that were fast becoming unobtainable.
and it’s anti-inflammatory, an all-rounder against covid. i’ve got 200g coming in the post via a company called vitamondo, as they had the best price i could find.
Tim,
in my view the fatigue is due to the effort of the body to fight the infection.
Anyway, please consider that when I got Covid first time (last year), it was the same for me and it went away with a good cycle of vitamins and light excercise (just old style gimnastic movements, very very light, increasing slightly during weeks on).
I went back to normal in 2/3 weeks.
On the contrary, this second Covid was bullsh.. for me and my wife, we recognized just because for curiosity we made the test.
Otherwise we would have not considered the episode.
After 2/3 days we didn’t have any symptom (although they were light) and we didn’t have any fatigue sensation.
Those who had big problems were my sister and my mother, who had (luckily) only 2 doses of vaccine.
They had 3 months of repercussions on their bodies.
And my sister was even obliged to go to a clinic to ‘clean’ her blood with ozone therapy, otherwise she couldn’t get up from bed.
And you have to know that in Italy (besides the obvious appearance of turbo cancers) we have people who had 5 doses (!).
I cantell you a tragic funny episode:
My neighbour, who is in very bad shape from health point of view, said that nurses at the hospital blamed him, because they said he doesn’t have to define this last injection as ‘5th dose’, but he has to define it ‘first recall’
😀
Being the 4 doses, the standard complete set of Italian vaccination and every new one has to be called ‘recall’.
IT looks like you and your wife have a good enough immune function to deal with any future COVID-type infections for the next few years, Student. My wife and I too.
I appreciate getting the details. I haven’t had to deal with this sort of infection for over five years, and so my immune system was not in peak fighting condition. Or as the Military Summary Channel guy Dima is always saying, it lost its combat capability. But I am beefed up now.
And cross-immunity is a real thing, so we shouldn’t worry too much about the next few variants that the plandemicists want to scare us with.
My younger brother in the UK had a bad case of Covid-19 (or was it the flu?) in 2020, with symptoms that lingered. He was injected 3 times at least in 2021 and 22, then came down with oesophageal cancer in February and stomach cancer in March this year and was due to have his stomach surgically removed. Since then, I haven’t heard from him. His email still works but he doesn’t reply to my messages.
My elder brother in the UK also doesn’t reply to my emails. He was not a well man even before 2020. I’d like to know that they are doing OK, or if not, I’d like to know how they are doing. But my British family only seem to use Facebook or other social media to communicate, and I refuse to open an account.
Where do your brothers live in the UK Tim? I have stepchildren, in laws and friends all over the place…well between Manchester, Liverpool and Southport. Also London. Perhaps one of them could check for you.
Covid is NOT like the flu – at least not, what the unprofessional me can read in studies. It may have a MORTALITY rate like the flu.
The contact with the Spike protein creates a range of problems, infected or injected or produced in ones one body as a result of gene manipulation. Most of these problems lead to inflammations that then trigger a wide range of symptoms, amoung them cardiovascular ones.
The elefant in the room in my eyes is, that fragments of the Spike protein can cross the blood-brain-barrier. Some studies estimate “mental problems”, from dementia to anxiety and depression, as around 30% of people, in which the Spike protein has replicated. The official statistics do not reflect this problem.
If we look to other potentially damaging attacks to the brain, we find a lot of susceptible dangers, we consider safe: sugar, stress, fearp*rn, lack of omega-3 and “good fats”, chemicals in processed food, fluorite, aluminium, eventually chemtrail residues, radio waves of all kind, lack of oxigen.
It is a good idea to consider a “healthy diet”, cook yourself or with friends/family using fresh basic ingredients, including mushrooms and lots of “green vegetables”, relax the brain, walk, meditate, gather with people, sing, do creative things.
A significant amount of people, lets say 30% of the vaxxed, seems to produce the Spike protein permanently. As a consequence a inflammation reducing diet and a cortisol reducing lifestyle must be implemented permanently to avoid longtime effects.
As a society it might be possible, that this adds another layer of problems to the degrowths predicament.
We should be able to recognize some mental effects, as people start to prefer stereotypes over creative problem solving. This could be an effect of cortisol, insulin, inflammation and further mechanisms.
What you are missing Jan is that the typologies (variants) of Covid present now on the globe are completely different from the original Covid which has been released at the beginning.
So, what you say may be correct for the initial Covid if not correctly treated from the beginning, but the variants present now on the globe are flu mixed with traces of Covid.
If people go on talking of Covid as if it were a ‘static’ disease like Polio, don’t have understood the key point of the problem and follow the interests of who promote mRNA vaccinations.
“but the variants present now on the globe are flu mixed with traces of Covid.”
That is as silly as dogs mixing with cats. Flu, influenza virus and Covid, a corona virus are completely different types of viurses and don’t mix. You are possibly thinking of flu viruses that are close enough that they do swap gene segments. You are correct in that the current version of Covid has evolved away from the original, fortunately for us in the direction of being much less lethal.
This might not be the first time a corona virus did this. Look up the 1899 epidemic thought at the time to be a version of flu. If you can’t find it, I have a subscription to Science and can send you the article.
this is why it has been strongly suggested, that the epidemic of 1919/21 killed predominantly younger people—ie born after 1899, because they had not been exposed to the 1899 variant.
but you wont stop the conspironuts ”proving” that Fauci was in the pay of the chinese trying to bump us all off, and bill gates was injecting everyone with iron filings so we can be tracked by his 5g aerials
We keep seeing indications that China’s economy is doing poorly. (Except from Kevin Walmsley).
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinese-offices-emptier-now-during-peak-covid-lockdowns-economy-crumbles
I tend to believe your assessment. Also, the contacts I have in China sound more like you than like Walmsley, although they generally talk of a mild but persistent downturn.
Wind and solar aren’t solutions to this problem.
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/data-centers-spy-country-northern-virginia-face-seven-year-hookup-wait
Data Centers In ‘Spy Country’ Northern Virginia Face Seven-Year Hookup Wait
The proliferation of AI data centers across Virginia’s Loudoun County has created a massive bottleneck of delayed hookups for large data centers by energy supplier Dominion Energy.
According to Bloomberg, because of the surge in hookup requests, data centers that require more than 100 megawatts of electricity could take one to three years and/or as long as seven years to be wired into the local power grid. . .
Dominion’s ability to beef up the power grid and supply data centers with additional load capacity appears to be challenged by the artificial intelligence boom. A presentation by the power company in June showed power demand by data centers in Virginia soared by 500% from 2013 to 2022.
Mid-Atlantic grid operator PJM Interconnection now requests Dominion to provide a 15-year data center forecast instead of a five-year outlook because of soaring power demand. The rise in power isn’t just due to AI data centers but also other electrification trends, including electric vehicles and 5G technology.
“including electric vehicles and 5G technology. ”
The last makes no sense. 5G is communication technology and that uses a relatively tiny amount of power.
5G has more restricted range and lower power density, so it requires more repeaters, and thus more energy usage.
“more energy usage.”
While that is true, the energy use is relatively small. From the ones I have looked at, the power draw can’t be more than a kW or so. One of them might serve at least 1000 people making the per capita use around a watt.
i read today, that the worlds largest sail powered cargo ship has just set off from France to New York
carrying
1000 tons of champagne and cognac.
there seems something not quite right there—i cant quite put my finger on it.–a matter of priorities maybe.
France needs exports of some kind. If people in the US will buy this stuff, at a fairly high price, it helps the economy.
What else does France have with more or less concentrated value to sell?
I missed the sail powered boat part. Sounds like a great publicity stunt, if France can sell the alcoholic beverages at a sufficiently high markup. Usually, there are people who are willing to pay extra for something that is supposedly “green.”
I wonder how much the insurance is on a wind-powered boat. Historically, they have sunk at a pretty high rate. But maybe this is different.
Gail, a quick research and the main exports of France are:
Aerospace
Chemicals, perfumes, cosmetics
Food industry (I guess wines are a part of it)
Pharmaceuticals
since our industry has been offshored services also play a big role in our economy
More on farming, Russia/China, settlement outside of Chicago.
Things are changing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehdH2g4OnCs
It would appear there will be some financial issues for the West.
Financial aspects no longer handled in dollar, block chains coming into being which I think suggests inability to inflate currencies – huge loss of government power.
I think the block chain finance could be the greatest financial shock the world has ever seen. Keynesian economics will be dead or change, ability to move demand forward very challenging especially given lack of supply in many areas.
Interesting times.
Dennis L.
I see the new Russia-China grain corridor as a way of keeping grain production-consumption closer to home, rather than it being a price discovery issue. Presumably, it uses less fuel, or more fuel that is available in Russia and China.
I haven’t looked closely at the grain corridor that they are working on. Does it use electric rail or diesel? If the corridor uses electric rail, will it be possible to keep up the electricity supply? If it depends on above-ground transmission, how will the constant repairs be handled, for example?
As I see it, not being able to tell prices is the least of our problems. The US will have much less goods to sell for world trade. This will help in the shortage of oil for transit, but it will leave the US a great deal more isolated. We will have to build supply chains within North America much more in the future.
“Presumably, it uses less fuel”
Rail is much better than trucks, but not close to shipping by water.
Once the rail system gets built, I agree. But if a whole new rail system is needed, with grading of the land, steel rails, new engines and cars for hauling, and the US doesn’t have much of this available without importing everything from China or somewhere else, it is not as clear to me. There is also a question of how long the new system will continue to be usable, given the many simultaneous issues.
“the US doesn’t have much of this available without importing everything from China or somewhere else, ”
We were talking about shipping grain from Russia to China I thought, US does not construct much new rail.
Rail is really heavy. I don’t think much of it is imported.
We will have to build what is left of our industrial centers around rivers and great lakes, like they were in the beginning of the industrial revolution. The mountain west might become a depopulated wild west again.
“We will have to build”
An alternative is that we might have very distributed universal constructors. Somewhat like 3D printers.
lol keith
sometimes i wonder———-
with a 2d printer, you put in cartidges of ink, and you get ink out–printed on a page, it might be a complex image, but it is still just ink
the same applies to a 3d printer—you cannot—-repeat cannot—get out more or anything different to what you put in.
sometimes it is a relief to have no high academic background whatsoever.
then i dont trot out twaddle in the name of knowledge.
“sometimes i wonder”
Note that I said “somewhat like.”
Norm, do you have an idea of how a 3 D printer works? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3D_printing The simple ones use filaments of a dozen different plastics melted by moving a heated head to build an object. Some of them, the large industrial versions, build up objects from stainless steel wire by welding. Still others use concrete to print a whole house.
You don’t need a “high academic background” to understand this, there are thousands of youtube videos. I know about half a dozen people who use them, mostly for prototyping but the cost keeps coming down. One friend built a Roots blower, a very quite way to ventilate a room. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roots_blower
keith
when you come across a 3d printer that will ”print” a house, without access to the necessary materials/components, in the same volume, from which a house is constructed—-
or any other object for that matter,
let me know, i will be most interested
“let me know, i will be most interested”
Obviously I won’t. Be far to busy pulling valuable materials out of thin air.
figgers
was that an admission of BS keith?
in the meantime i will send you a photograph of a house
Remember when Dick Cheney said “the American way of life is not negotiable”? I think that meant the habit the U.S. developed of using coercion to make people far away from it to trade with it was not going away.
If politicians don’t understand the situation, can the military be expected to be any different? Will America and its allies be looking towards military solutions to supply shortages? How will this be sold to the American public, many of whom are from countries that have been subject to U.S. military intervention. Will coercion be enough to keep everyone on the same page?