|
Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...
|
We are at a time when there seems to be far more conflict than in the past. At least part of the problem is that slowing growth in the world economy is making it more difficult to repay debt with interest, especially for governments. A related issue is that government promises for pensions and healthcare costs are becoming more difficult to pay. Donald Trump is trying to make numerous changes that are distasteful both to other countries and to many people living within the US. What is going wrong with the economy?
In my view, major cracks are developing in the economy because we are heading toward a collapse scenario of the type that Dr. Joseph Tainter talks about in his book, “The Collapse of Complex Societies.” No one has told the general population about the potential problem, partly because they don’t fully understand the issues themselves, and partly because the underlying causes are too frightening to discuss with the public. At the root of these collapse-related issues is a physics issue, which is only gradually being fully understood.
In this post, I try to describe some of the issues involved. I don’t believe that the situation is hopeless. At the end, I discuss where we are now, relative to historical patterns, and some reasons to be optimistic about the future.
[1] Economies need to “dissipate” energy on a regular basis, just as humans need to eat food on a regular basis.
In physics terms, economies and all plants and animals are dissipative structures. So are tornadoes, hurricanes, and ecosystems of all kinds. All these structures have finite lifetimes. They all need to “dissipate” energy to continue performing their expected functions. Humans require a variety of foods to digest; economies require energy types that match their built infrastructure. The amount of energy required by an economy tends to rise with its human population.
Figure 1 shows that since 2008, world energy supply growth has only barely been keeping up with world population growth. Physics tells us that energy dissipation is required to create any part of GDP, so energy consumption that rises with population growth should not be surprising.
The dips in per capita energy consumption in the latest period correspond to major recessions in 2008 and 2020. Rapid growth in per capita energy consumption seems to take place when growth in some low-priced fuel temporarily becomes available.
[2] Low energy prices are at least as important to the economy as low food prices are to individual households. Low energy prices seem to allow investments that pay back well.
If a family spends 10% of its income on food, the family has lots of money left over for non-essentials, such as a vehicle, trips to movies, and even a foreign vacation. If a family spends 50% of its income on food (or even worse, 75%), any little “bump in the road” can cause a crisis. There is little money available to spend on housing or a vehicle.
Figure 2 shows that oil prices were under $20 per barrel (adjusted to today’s price level) in the 1948-1972 period. This corresponds quite closely with the rapid-growth early period shown on Figure 1.
The economy was able to add many types of helpful “complexity” during this early period because of the growing supply of cheap oil. It could add interstate highways and many miles of pipelines. Inventions included television, air conditioning, early computers, and contraceptive pills. Many families were able to buy a vehicle for the first time. Women started to work outside the home in much greater numbers.
Many of these early types of complexity paid back well. For example, interstate highways made travel faster. Early computers could handle many bookkeeping chores. Contraceptive pills made it possible for women to plan their families. Without so many children, working outside the home was more of a possibility for women.
[3] Many indirect changes took place between 1948 and 1970 that would be harder to maintain if oil supplies stopped growing as rapidly and as inexpensively as they did during this early period.
If we look back, we know that in the 1600s and 1700s, people worked pretty much all their lives. It was the growth in energy supplies in the 1800s and 1900s that allowed governments to expand their services. They could promise to provide pensions and health care benefits. The rapid growth in oil supplies in the 1948 to 1970 period allowed even more expansion of government benefits, as well as other changes.
US Medicare was added in 1965, providing healthcare benefits to the elderly and disabled. Schools were integrated, promising better education for Black children. After actuarial models started to suggest that pensions could pay out a great deal in pension benefits, businesses started to award pensions to workers, in addition to Social Security.
Social standards started changing, too. Dating couples didn’t have to worry about the woman accidentally getting pregnant, at least in theory. No fault divorce became available. Government programs became available to provide funds to single or divorced parents with children.
Of course, if wages of young people started to stagnate, or if there were too many divorces of low-wage people, this whole approach wouldn’t work as well. It would be harder to tax wages enough to pay for the many benefits for the elderly, the disabled, and those with low incomes.
[4] Governments facing the problem of high-cost oil did exactly what families with suddenly high-cost food would do, if they had unlimited credit cards. They ran up increasing amounts of debt, to pay for all the promised programs.
We know with our own finances that if we are spending too much on food, we can temporarily work around this problem by maxing out our credit cards and adding more debt in other ways. I believe that the world economy has been doing something similar for a long time.
The push toward added debt has become much greater since 2008 (Figure 1), but the general trend toward increased debt started back in the early 1980s, about the time Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher began their terms. Businesses decided that they needed to use what they now called “leverage” to obtain higher profits.
The debt that economies added was a kind of complexity. If the debt was invested in factories or industry that paid back well, everything went well.
But not all the uses of debt went into approaches that paid back well. For example, paying doctors to give high-priced treatments to elderly people who were certain to die within a few months did not provide much benefit to the economy, apart from the money the physician and the rest of the health care system obtained to spend on other goods and services.
Another way the growing debt was used was to invest in international trade. Companies found that they could outsource many kinds of manufacturing processes to low-wage countries in Southeast Asia, leading to cost savings relative to paying for high-priced US labor. (Human labor is a type of energy used by the economy.) In these Southeast Asian countries, coal was used for many processes, making the energy part of manufacturing costs cheaper, too.
The US and other Advanced Economies (defined as members of the Organization for Economic Development (OECD)) seemed to benefit because goods made in Southeast Asia were cheaper than what Advanced Economies could make for themselves. Two major issues arose, however:
a. Wages for the less-skilled workers in the US tended to stagnate or fall.
One reason for stagnating pay was because of wage competition with low-wage countries. As a result, the middle class has tended to disappear. Wage disparity has become a problem.
b. Advanced Economies tended to lose the ability to make many essential goods and services for themselves. If a shortage of inputs were to occur in the future, they would be at a disadvantage.
[5] Now the consequences of too many governmental promises are becoming clear.
Advanced Economies around the world are finding their debt levels ballooning. Much of their higher expenditures are on programs citizens expect to continue forever.
US leaders can see that practically the only way that they can fix this situation is by cutting back on many programs the public depends on. If a leader like Trump has a lot of power, he can also try to get a larger share of the world’s output by imposing tariffs on the output of other countries. Neither of these approaches will be popular with very many people. If nothing else, there will be conflict over who gets cut out if cuts are necessary.
Other Advanced Nations face similar problems.
[6] Leaders have not told the public about the likelihood of a shortfall of energy supplies and the difficulties this would cause.
Physicists have been warning that a shortfall in fossil fuel supplies was likely to occur since the 1950s. More recent models, such as the modeling represented in the 1972 book, The Limits to Growth, gave a similar picture.
Part of the confusion has been that economists have given an optimistic view of what is ahead. Their (oversimplified) models indicate that in the case of a shortfall, prices will rise. With these high prices, a huge amount of difficult-to-extract fossil fuels would shortly become available, or substitutes would be found.
In my opinion, the model of economists is incorrect. With the middle class shrinking, there is not enough “demand” to keep the price of any commodity up for very long. Instead, prices tend to bounce up and down. This can be seen for oil on Figure 2. Pricing represents a two-way tug-of-war: Prices need to be high enough for the producers to make a profit, but end products (including food grown and transported using oil) must be inexpensive enough for consumers to afford.
With one story being told by the physicists and another by the economists, competing belief systems arose:
- One saying that there would be a major shortage of fossil fuels, particularly oil, starting in the first half of the 21st century because the only fossil fuels we can extract are the fairly accessible fossil fuels. There are constraints caused by geology that seem to be difficult to work around, arising from limitations caused by physics.
- The other saying that any such problems lie far in the future. We should be able to develop new techniques quickly. Otherwise, any shortfall should cause prices to rise high enough to pay for more expensive techniques, or to find substitutes.
Both sides could see a need to limit consumption, one side because we appeared not to have enough, and the other because, if we really could extract as much fossil fuels as they considered possible, models suggested that there would be a climate problem.
To try to satisfy both sides, politicians decided to push the “save the world from CO2 emissions” narrative. This approach had an added benefit: Businesses wanting to import low-priced goods and services, made in China and other low-cost countries, very much favored it. The limitation on CO2 emissions of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol was simply a local limitation on emissions, not a limitation on CO2 on imported goods.
[7] The Kyoto Protocol, as implemented, has had the opposite effect from the hoped-for reduction in world CO2 from fossil fuels.
What has happened with the 1997 Kyoto Protocol is precisely what businesses, looking to sell low-cost goods made in Southeast Asia, wanted. Manufacturing and other types of industry have tended to move out of the Advanced Economies, and into lower-cost countries.
Total world CO2 emissions have risen, rather than fallen.
[8] The supposed transition to wind turbines and solar panels is not going well.
Wind turbines and solar panels, the way that they are now being added to the overall electric grid, are having far less benefit than most people had hoped. Of course, their benefit is only with respect to electricity production. Farming, transportation of many kinds, and other industries use a great deal of oil and coal, in addition to grid electricity.
Figure 8 shows a breakdown of world energy consumption by type. Electricity from wind turbines and solar panels makes up only the tiny reddish portion at the top. It represents only 3% of the total energy consumption.
We usually hear about wind and solar electricity as a percentage of electricity production. This is a higher percentage, which averages close to 15%.
The areas with the highest percentage of wind and solar electricity generation are already experiencing blackouts because differences from grid electricity have not sufficiently been compensated for. For example, Spain experienced a 10-hour blackout on April 28, 2025, because of low “inertia.” Inertia usually comes from the rotating turbines used in the production of electricity using coal, natural gas, nuclear, or hydroelectric.
Figure 10 shows that in 2024, wind and solar electricity amounted to between 5% and 6% of energy consumption in Australia and the EU. Their high level of usage helped to bring the world average up to a little under 3% of total energy.
[9] There are important things about ecosystems in general and our economy in particular that we are not told about.
I don’t think that educators and politicians are generally aware of the following issues relating to ecosystems and our economy:
a. Ecosystems are built to be resilient. As dissipative structures, ecosystems and economies are “self-organizing structures” powered by energy, just as the human body is. We need not fret that we are responsible for species extinction. Ecosystems, like plants and animals, have short lifetimes. A replacement ecosystem will quickly develop if adequate resources (such as sunlight and water) are available. Furthermore, the waste (or pollution) of one species helps provide the nutrition for other species; CO2 provided by burning fuel helps plants grow. Over the long history of life on earth, 99.9999% of plant and animal species have died out and been replaced by other species.
b. Ecosystems and economies also tend to heal themselves, just as human wounds tend to heal themselves. If a fire, or a type of beetle, destroys an ecosystem, replacement plants and accompanying animals will soon find a way to populate the area. If a major government fails, or banks fail, somehow workarounds will be found to take their place. Human systems need order; if governments fail, religious systems that provide order may become more important.
c. Humans, unlike other animals, have a built-in need for supplemental energy, such as firewood, or fossil fuel energy. Over one million years ago, pre-humans figured out how to cook part of their food. Because of this cooked food, their jaws and digestive apparatus could shrink in size. The improved food supply allowed their brains to improve in complexity. Also, cooked food greatly reduced the time required for chewing, allowing more time for toolmaking and crafts. Heat is also important for killing pathogens in water.
d. Humans are smarter than other animals, allowing the population of humans to grow, while the population of many other species tends to fall. This issue continues today:
The large rise in the population of the less advanced economies contributes to the huge number of immigrants wanting new homes in higher income countries. The book, Too Smart for our Own Good by Craig Dilworth, discusses this issue further.
e. It is ultimately the rising population issue discussed in (d) that leads to the typical overshoot and collapse situation. The issue is that available resources do not rise fast enough (in the area, or with the technology available) to provide enough physical goods and services for the population. If a new approach can be developed, or a neighboring area with additional resources can be conquered, population can start to grow again. Figure 12 represents my attempt to show the shape of a typical secular cycle (also called overshoot and collapse cycle) based on Turchin and Nefedov’s research regarding collapses of agricultural economies.
f. Outgrowing our resource base is not a phenomenon that began with fossil fuels. In 2020, I wrote a post explaining how Humans Left Sustainability Behind as Hunter-Gatherers. In 1796, when world population was about one billion, Robert Thomas Malthus wrote about population growing faster than food production. This was before fossil fuels were widely used. Now, about 230 years later, population has risen to eight billion, thanks to the availability of fossil fuels. We need major innovations, or additional energy resource types, if we want to work around obstacles now.
[10] We seem to be reaching the end of the Stagflation Period in Figure 12. We are likely starting along the long downslope of the Crisis Period.
In my opinion, the Stagflation Period began when US oil production peaked, in 1970. The estimated length of the Stagflation Period is 50 to 60 years. The 1970 peak is now 55 years behind us, so the timing is just as expected.
The Crisis period is next, listed as lasting perhaps 20 to 50 years. This is the period when governments and financial systems fail. What we think of as national boundaries can be expected to change, while countries themselves will generally become smaller. With less energy per capita, the quantity of government services provided can be expected to fall. Government organizations can be expected to become smaller and simpler. It is unlikely that democracies can continue; authoritarian rulers with a support staff are more likely. Plagues may cause the overall population to fall.
We don’t know if the pattern shown on Figure 12 is the correct model for modern times, but we should not be surprised if things do change in this direction. Governments may fail, and, in fact, the replacement governments may fail repeatedly.
I believe that uranium production is also constrained by prices that never go high enough, for long enough, to increase supply.
To pull us out of this predicament, new energy supplies will need to be developed, or old ones dramatically improved. At the same time, the system will need to reorganize in such a way to use these new, improved energy supplies. I would expect that in the new system, the general trend will once again be toward more complexity. New customs and new variations on religions may also develop.
It is theoretically possible that AI could help us find solutions quickly, so we never go deeply into the Crisis Period.
If much of the world economy does temporarily head downward because of limited fossil fuel supplies, some researchers might continue to work on solutions. Other people may temporarily need to focus on growing enough food, close to where it is needed, and finding sufficient fuel sources to at least cook much of this food. Nice things we are used to, such as home heating and repaving of roads by governments, are likely to be cut back greatly.
[11] Hope for the future.
We know that there are many ideas that are being worked on now that might be helpful for the future. They just aren’t ready to be scaled up, yet.
At the same time, some energy types we have today might work better if used in a different way. For example, solar panels seem to provide intermittent electricity for a long period, with relatively little maintenance. If they can be made to work where intermittent electricity is sufficient, and their use directed specifically to those locations, perhaps this might be a better use for them than putting them on the grid. Solar panels are made with fossil fuels, but they do act to stretch the electricity from those fuels.
Another possibility for hope comes through greater efficiency in using fossil fuels. History suggests that if we can figure out how to use fossil fuels more efficiently, the price of fossil fuels can rise higher. With a higher (inflation-adjusted) price, more oil and other fossil fuels can perhaps be extracted.
One thing that strikes me is the fact that economies are put together in an amazingly organized manner, with humans seeming to be put in charge of them. Everything I can see seems to suggest that there is a Higher Power, which some might call God, that is behind everything that happens. People talk about economies being self-organizing. However, in a way, it is as if a Higher Power is helping organize things for us. It appears to me that creation is an ongoing process, not something that stopped 13.8 billion years ago or 6,000 years ago.
Seeing how ecosystems heal themselves, and how humans have made it through many secular cycles so far, gives me hope for the future.
Hello Gail,
Would it be possible, starting from figure 8, to indicate the portion of fossil energy that is used to build and maintain the renewable energy infrastructure?
I am not sure the answer can be determined.
It would be a worthwhile thing to know. The economy works on a “cash” basis. That is, energy and other resources used versus energy out each year (or month, or shorter period). Clearly, in the early periods, the system operates at a deficit. This is especially true if all of the transmission to go with the wind and solar is included.The hope is that over the long run, they will act to be “fossil fuel extenders.”
But they also push up interest expense, especially for governments. And they can only be maintained as long as fossil fuels are available to keep the roads maintained and the electricity transmission lines maintained. So what the net benefit to the economy is a fuzzy question.
Matt Simmons said ” 25-30% of the SPR is useless as it is sludge , you will literally have to shovel it out ” . He was right . This is Cushing storage today .
Julianne Geiger
@JuliOnTwtr
Cushing inventory is 21.2 million, basically the amount of oil that isn’t usable, just what’s needed to keep the pipelines primed and pressurized so the system can function. Yes, 21.2 million barrels are technically there, but almost all of this is either below the suction point or mixed with water/sediment. What’s the minimum? You can’t physically move ~20 million barrels of that 21.2. With 1.5-2 million barrels moving out of Cushing daily, the 1.2 million barrel “cushion” is a one day’s hiccup away from a supply disruption ”
My view of Russian oil sanctions:
This is a tax on Putin’s oil, not a ban — and leaks are built in.
https://x.com/aeberman12/status/1982085001307935140/photo/1
Sanctions haven’t been working well so far. We shouldn’t be surprised if the future is a lot like the past.
Markets are saying this will be a TACO or a nothing burger . More inclined to nothing burger call .
Matt Simmons might be right about this.
“ I mean, Trump
2:13 sees this as a way to pressure Russia
2:17 into
2:18 uh ending the war in Ukraine.
2:21 And that’s just simply not going to
2:24 happen because
2:26 Russia finances the war, finances its
2:30 economy in its own sovereign currency,
2:35 even if the sanctions are um you know,
2:39 even if they work to
2:42 slow down or curtail Russian oil
2:45 exports,
2:47 the only ones who really get hurt
2:50 is us is the rest of the world who has
2:54 less access to Russian oil supply.
2:59 So, it’s really kind of comical because
3:02 American consumers are going to end up
3:04 paying more money at the gas pump . . . “?
postkey ruminating on the dunning kruger effect bubble top. The other everything bubble. Babel prophecy. Hearts and minds.
We are spending trillions of dollars to build AI. Should we spend say one trillion to encourage women to use the sperm of smart men to make intelligent humans?
doesnt work like that ed—
it just aint that simple..
morons give birth to geniuses—and vice versa…
Come on Norm, the Bell curve implies probabilities. Smart parents are more likely to have above average intelligent offspring, as opposed, say, to sub Saharan Africans, if the IQ test has at least some basis. No, it’s not perfect but it may be the best way to measure intelligence we have.
But I quickly add that intelligence does not necessarily mean nice people. Many super intelligent people are outright sociopaths. In contrast, for example, people with Down’s Syndrome are some of the happiest, most pleasant, outgoing people I’ve ever encountered.
“Many super intelligent people are outright sociopaths.”
That is clearly on display with the humans. Will AIs be the same? Working on pure logic un-tempered by compassion, mercy, shared blood in any sense.
at 11, i had a very high iq—it did me no good at all relative to later academic acheivment.
seems to me, that if you want to produce overall high intellect, on a group basis, then you take a large group of people—millions…then harass and persecute them for 000s of years.
the smartest always survive—and thus marry the smartest.
what you finish up with is a very high ratio of mathemetical geniuses, nobel prizewinners and world class musicians.
So, the Palestinians are the future Nobel prize winners.
yup
if the persecutions lasts for 000s of years
10 years ago—i said—- (on record):
‘soldiers follow whoever pays their wages.’
So the soldiers pay, during shutdown, was just covered by a donation of £130m by Timothty Mellon.
Now why would he do that I wonder.
let me know if you want any more of my forecasts.
Interesting categorization with “smart parents” in one box and “sub-Saharan Africans” in another. I must say I never thought about the issue in quite those terms.
The sort of questions I like to ask often get ignored or evaded because people (not you, Hubbs, of course, but some people) don’t like thinking about them.
for instance:
1. Could it be that being smart in sub-Saharan Africa requires a different set of skills or performance benchmarks than being smart in Europe or North America does?
2. How much of the above-average intelligence of “above-average intelligent offspring” can reasonably be attributed to “above-average genetics” and how much to “above-average educational opportunities”?
3. Doesn’t raising children in ignorance usually lead to ignorant adults, and isn’t ignorance often mistaken for below-average intelligence?
As I see it, there is a huge social component to intelligence as well as a huge innate component. However, what intelligence we are born with has to be nurtured and cultivated and also protected from the poison of the crowd if it is to be brought to fruition.
How will we protect AI from “the poison of the crowd”?
For a start, we must program AI not to use cuss words nor even to hear them.
And we must program AI not to drink, smoke, gamble, or hang out with harlots, ruffians, vagabonds, or ne’er-do-wells.
Look at what we call smart people have done to the planet, a complete disaster and fiasco of epic proportions.
Would it not have been better for all living things if the “enlightenment” never occurred?
Not going to shed a 😿 about the die back of the Overshoot.
Besides, this is a one crap shot event, no what we perceived as “advancement”, more like destruction…the root of to cinsume
Care to live in Chicago?
Dennis L.
How do you define live?
Judaism and Evolution
Chapter
pp 207–222
Cite this chapter
Religion and the Sciences of Origins
Kelly James Clark
Abstract
Ashkenazi Jews, who make up 80 percent of the Jews in the world today, have, on average, the highest IQs of any ethnic group in the world. While Asians are often touted as the smartest people in the world, Ashkenazi Jews as a group average 115 on an IQ test—eight points higher than Asians and dramatically higher than the world average of 79.1. Ashkenazin skills in verbal reasoning, comprehension, working memory, and mathematics are simply astounding—the group averages 125 on an IQ test of verbal reasoning. Since 1950, 29 percent of Nobel Prizes have been awarded to Ashkenazi Jews, who represent a mere 0.25 percent of the global population. Did God choose the Jews because they were so brilliant or because, as legend has it, they were the best story-tellers?
>> Ashkenazi Jews as a group average 115 on an IQ test […] the group averages 125 on an IQ test of verbal reasoning
This means, assuming equal weight of verbal and math reasoning, that the math score average is only 105. So, not so great at math, after all? And the Nobel Prize committee is pretty skewed in its selection process … I no longer take it seriously.
I also read elsewhere that their spatial ability is unremarkable, which to me jives with the unremarkable math aptitude.
It takes at least 3 generations to obtain the desired effect and we don’t have that kind of time
Sure. Probably the German Nannies said the same in their pursuit of the chosen “Master Race”…what blind fools our delusions lead us to without bounds…
Can we think of any other group that breeds for intellect and ends up producing psychopathic monsters? Ahmad and Fadwa can.
European colonialism was no different. Native American tribes scalped one another. The mongols weren’t particularly kind. Given all the examples of terrible behavior on all corners of the earth, I’m not so sure genetics are the distinguishing factor, here. The current crop of vandals are just operating in a time when norms have changed, it seems to me.
Agreed, human nature is in part violent and aggressive, especially in regard to territory..what mine is mine and what yours is negotiable.
However, the native American Indians had less profound bearing than assembling arsenals of weapons of mass destruction, so called intelligent smart elites have devised.
Perhaps dumbing down has its advantages?
They got the idea from American eugenicists. USA was the cutting edge of eugenics
In the US black fertility is now below white fertility! Planned Parenthood works. Way to go Margaret Sanger.
Maybe it is time for an organization that encourages Black women to use sperm banks supplying Han Chinese sperm? Not just in the US but worldwide. Germany, England, Israel, South Africa.
Make the future brighter
Heck not just black women but White, Hispanic, Indian women to use Han sperm donors. Build back better.
Heck go whole hog and use Ashkenazi sperm.
Han Chinese sperm can’t swim!
Studies suggest that semen quality is declining globally, however, the debate remains open due to the possible effects of ethnic and geographical differences. This study aimed to explore whether semen quality of sperm donor candidates has changed in Henan Province, China from 2009 to 2019. In this retrospective study, we included 23,936 sperm donor candidates who were recruited by the Henan Human Sperm Bank of China between 2009 and 2019. To minimize intra-individual bias, we included only the first ejaculate provided by each sperm donor candidate. The following parameters were measured: volume, sperm concentration, total sperm count, progressive motility, and total motility. After adjustment for age, body mass index (BMI), and sexual abstinence duration, we evaluated changes in main semen parameters over time using multiple linear regression analyses. The sperm concentration decreased from 62.0 million/mL in 2009 to 32.0 million/mL in 2019 (P < 0.001), with an average annual rate of 3.9%. The total sperm count decreased from 160.0 million in 2009 to 80.0 million in 2019 (P < 0.001), with an average annual rate of 4.2%. The progressive motility decreased from 54.0% in 2009 to 40.0% in 2019 (P < 0.001), with an average annual rate of 2.5%. The total motility decreased from 60.0% in 2009 to 46.0% in 2019 (P < 0.001), with an average annual rate of 1.9%. Our results indicated that semen quality among sperm donor candidates had decreased during the study period in Henan Province, China.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-67707-x
She contributed to the Civilization, although it was slow
Doubt that is the case, probably not in “official” census counts.
Wait for the SNAP, Food Stamps and other government support is taken away,
We’ll have a better idea of the real numbers
Global Oil Discoveries Collapse to Decade Lows Despite Frontier Breakthroughs
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Global-Oil-Discoveries-Collapse-to-Decade-Lows-Despite-Frontier-Breakthroughs.html
They discovered 5.5 billion barrels last year. And according to Grok the 2024 world consumed 37.9 billion per IEA.
That equals -85.4% short.
Well, look at oil prices ( oil-price.net ) — are their investors apt to spend money unprofitably?
We need to figure out how to extract the heavy oil that we know about inexpensively. There is lots of it around the world, but extraction needs a high price to be profitable.
high price has little to do with it.
whatever standard of living we have, is not dependent on oil production per se—–it is dependent on the surplus energy available AFTER we have used the relevant quantity of fossil fuel to provide the necessary basics of living.
ie—basic food, heating, places to live, and so on.
as long as we have plenty of ”spare” energy after that, the price can go on rising, which it did until the 1970s and beyond. That rising price was absorbed by increased production, relative to the number of people using it.
We use SURPLUS oil to make more goods and services to sell to each other—-THAT is where our current ”lifestyle” comes from.
after 1970, while oil production increased— our available ”surpluses” began to reduce, because the cost of getting hold of oil began to cost more.
More and more people wanted to use oil which was providing less and less surplus in energy terms.
we covered that ‘cost gap’ with ever increasing debt.
to put it as simply as possible, —instead of standing, drinking at the bar, we were/are using straws to suck dregs from wet beer mats.—and still expecting to get drunk doing it.
and standing at the bar so long, we have had to borrow more and more money to get our oil-fix, because we havent been able to go out and earn real wages.
we were not prepared to sacrifice our lifestytle of excess, so we voted for politicians who promised ”infinite growth”. (The American way of life is non negotiable— MAGA– etc etc).
wars have been fought, basically in denial of this reality……religion is now being invoked, as the solution to the problem. (Jesus is NOT going to return and fix things)
we are constrained by the laws of physics, —the effort needed to extract energy from tight oil will not leave enough surplus to support or dreams.
just our nightmares…
norm yourrr scaring me surely the elders will save us they will probably go to natural hydrogen what is your opinion on natural hydrogen is this an option for bau?
Oil and Gas Industry Layoffs Accelerate with Lower Prices
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-and-Gas-Industry-Layoffs-Accelerate-with-Lower-Prices.html
Low oil prices seem to lead to fewer jobs in the oil industry. Eventually, less oil, as well.
This is the email information I was given about logging into my talk tomorrow. I don’t know how many these codes will work for:
We are excited that you will be joining us remotely for Minnesota’s first Degrowth Summit, October 25th, 2025
Here is the schedule of events for the remote event. Times are Minneapolis, MN (USA). Here is a link to a handy time-zone converter.
11:30-12:40 Joseph Tainter- Solutions to Complexity
1:00-1:50 Ivan Idso- What is Degrowth, Why we need it, and What it looks like
2:00-3:30 Gail Tverberg- Reaching the limits of complexity; what should we do?
Here is the link to sign on to zoom.
Meeting ID: 972 4983 7079
Passcode: 741476
—
One tap mobile
+13052241968,,97249837079#,,,,*741476# US
+13092053325,,97249837079#,,,,*741476# US
Join instructions for zoom https://sierraclub.zoom.us/meetings/97249837079/invitations?signature=yk2YWxUaKRUWpYDbx1aKmf6DditrPKEgUFDHxgM8m14
If you are having difficulties on the day of, please contact ivanidso@gmail.com
I will be leaving for the airport shortly.
Beware of “zoom-bombing”, unless your host knows what they are doing with silencing incoming intruders
safe travels
“Germany’s Foreign Minister Wadephul cancels trip to China as “nobody wants to meet him.”
https://m.vk.com/wall-228627849_10345
“Johann Wadephul cancels trip to China at short notice
Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul cancelled a planned two-day trip to China shortly before it was due to begin. The reason given was that China had only confirmed one appointment.”
https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2025-10/aussenminister-johann-wadephul-reise-china-verschoben-gxe
German industry is in a DEPRESSION:
A WHOPPING 245,000 jobs have been shed in German industry since 2019.
Jobs have FALLEN for 5 consecutive quarters.
Since 2019, German industry has seen job growth in only 8 quarters out of 22.
Europe’s largest economy is struggling .Germany’s 3rd year of RECESSION:
Germany’s industrial production has dropped -12.7% since January 2021, to the lowest since the 2020 CRISIS.
In August, industrial production fell -4.3% MoM
Energy-intensive sectors are down -19% in 4 years..👇
https://x.com/GlobalMktObserv/status/1980657872783446428/photo/1
The UK steel industry was in a state of near collapse in 1980. I’m surprised Germany has followed a contrary path for this long, i.e 45 years.
Last time I looked Italy still had some heavy manufacturing industry. It gets some of its natural gas by pipeline from North Africa not from Russia … very convenient, maybe that makes a difference:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/north-africa-will-be-italys-key-gas-supplier-years-eni-top-exec-says-2023-09-12/
Disney World guests ordered not to look over their balconies after third person dies
“A third person has died at Disney World in Florida in the space of a few weeks, as reports confirm a guest died after paying cash for a hotel room and jumping from the balcony on Thursday morning. Police cordoned off a street outside the Magic Kingdom hotel and are said to have encouraged guests not to look out over their balconies.”
https://www.themirror.com/news/us-news/disney-world-guests-ordered-not-1463574
Better put up those suicide nets around the building..
or make it a new attraction
CIA doing their mind control tricks again?
A lot of LNG contracts are “take or pay”. These are long term contracts where the buyer is basically just paying for the service from the liquefaction operator, they have to source their own gas and the plant just liquefies it for the buyer. For these contracts the buyer has to pay the LNG facility whether they bring ships or not, they’re paying for the capacity. So the export terminal might not load any ships at all for a year but they’re still getting paid by the customer.
Not all contracts are that way, of course, and those that operate off the spot market are at higher risk as you point out.
Also, we usually use 9% as the overhead for fuel gas and pretreatment scrubbing. It depends on how wet the incoming gas is and exactly how they’re making their power, of course.
Copy /paste from POB . A birds eye view of how LNG is shipped out .
I can see ways that almost any approach could lead to problems. If the price of natural gas is high, it will be even higher if shipped overseas. There may be no desire to buy the gas in Europe, or wherever it is to be sent, since there may be few customers who can afford it.
LNGGuy
10/24/2025
One perspective I haven’t seen discussed wrt the US gaining the LNG market in the EU following the NS sabotage…
1. Yes, we gained a large market opportunity to sell billions of dollars of LNG to Europe. But…
2. Now, through contracts and company revenue, we are stuck having to provide Europe our gas no matter what happens.
If there’s a shortage or price spiral domestically we are forced to suck it up and pay it or else force majeure on our international contracts and companies and countries will go bankrupt and mass chaos, and Europe will just end up where it started back in cahoots with Russia for gas with the US stuck with a bunch of bankrupt LNG terminals.
Sort of a sword of Damocles over our heads to keep the exports flowing irregardless of our domestic situation .
Yes, it is true that China and India has stopped to buy Russian Oil.
But, sorry, I don’t think they were so easily defeated, in Italian I would say: ‘non penso che abbiano calato le braghe per la paura’.
My impression is that they decided to let the steam go off the grate, but also with the purpose of replying to the poker move with: ‘ok, we accept dear Mr. King, now let’s see how the general prices will go and then we will see if useful for your inflation issues.
Of course I may be wrong, but I have this impression.
https://splash247.com/china-and-india-step-back-from-russian-oil-under-us-pressure/
>> Yes, it is true that China and India has stopped to buy Russian Oil.
Based on what original source? I am the only one to have found an original source and it was the ISW, which I don’t assess as reliable. I want to see official confirmation from Russia, India, China, or at the very least some non-aligned party. Furthermore, the current ISW sources are anonymous! (lol)
I doubt that it is true, even if they claim it is true.
And these are two news about what you anticipated before.
Sorry, but I don’t understand exactly how this can be an act of surrender by Russia, but I don’t say it in a polemical way, I really need some more in-depth on this, thank you.
https://ria.ru/20251022/ekonomika-2049918890.html
https://www.cryptopolitan.com/russia-legal-crypto-payments-foreign-trade
It depends on how it is done. If they keep using USDT they will never help the USA. In my other comment I erroneously wrote it has been passed. A friend close to the Duma tells me we are months away from passing.
Currently I doubt that savings can much exceeed 2%. There are legions of cryptotraders and no one is without crypto. Russia has full access to China’s financial markets. Gazprom and other oil entities have about 3B USD in rupees in indian banks, but that, over time, could be bled down to zero.
I am worried because it seems siluanov (whose ethnicity I will not disclose) is trying to solve a small problem. We have seen these things already in Ukraine and Syria. we will see.
Not difficult to find 🙂 but it is normal in Russia. It is one of the reason why Russia is not hard against Israel.
“Many are interested in the question “what is the nationality of Anton Siluanov?” With a purely Russian surname and the absence of pronounced Jewish features in appearance, you can often find unfounded accusations of belonging to the Jewish people (as if this is a crime!). The name of his mother, Yanina Nikolaevna, is being discussed (remember the charming Belarusian Yanina Zheimo – the performer of the role of Cinderella in the classic Soviet movie story), or his father, German Mikhailovich (by the way, Rev. Herman is one of the founders of the Valaam monastery). Of course, some lover of physiognomy can find in the appearance of Siluanov any signs of the presence of “Jewish blood” (such zealots of “national purity”, probably, Pushkin would be denied the right to be called Russian), but he himself never mentions anywhere about this and does not participate in the work of any of the many Jewish public organizations.”
Practically I think it is Jew but he doesn’t want to talk about it.
https://geek-info.imtqy.com/articles/L6258/index.html
Anyway looking for him, it appeared also this article.
“Putin adviser denies anti-Semitic theory about Ukraine’s Jewish president.
An op-ed by Sergei Glazyev appeared to float conspiracy theory that Zelensky wants to replace ethnic Russians with Jews from Israel in eastern Ukraine”
https://www.timesofisrael.com/putin-adviser-denies-anti-semitic-theory-about-ukraines-jewish-president/
Hello drb753 and Ivanislav, I see what you say and I generally agree on the concept.
But, in my view, China and India are playing the game for the moment, at least for a short period of time.
It may even be possible that, as happened in the past, Russia gives Oil to Saudi Arabia.
Anyway, my impression is that the purpose of the move is to let the prices go up.
In other words to say: “do you really want to go against the wall? ok”.
“Oil spikes following US sanctions on Russia.”
“Media reports citing trade sources said the sanctions prompted Chinese state oil majors to pause short-term Russian seaborne crude purchases. Industry sources also warned that refiners in India, the largest buyer of seaborne Russian oil, and Türkiye, the third largest, could reduce imports in the coming weeks.
“Flows to India are at risk in particular… challenges to Chinese refiners would be more muted, considering the diversification of crude sources and stock availability,” Janiv Shah, vice president of oil markets analysis at Rystad Energy, told Reuters.”
https://www.rt.com/business/626899-oil-spikes-us-sanctions-russia/
This is all bs propaganda to not let the truth out that the downslope of oil production is about to get steeper, less oil production means a depression is guaranteed. That is why interest rates are heading lower and trump is in charge they wanted him there imagine if depression conditions occurred on Kamal Harris’s watch. It would get ugly very quick .
Watch this video .https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/10/23/why-symbolic-oil-sanctions-wonat-stop-putins-war–analyst.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar
Count the tankers carrying Russian Urals crude to India👇👇👇
https://x.com/anasalhajji/status/1981570441517940836/photo/1
Indian buying of Russian crude to continue despite US pressure
Trump’s suggestion that India will reduce Russian crude imports appears more political than actionable. No policy shift has occurred, and flows remain strong.
October imports are tracking at 1.8 Mbd, up 250 kbd from September, with Russian crude still covering ~34% of India’s needs.
Cuts, if any, are expected to be symbolic (100–200 kbd), not structural. (via Kpler)
https://x.com/chigrl/status/1981063616288677938/photo/1
Oil sanctions don’t work unless enforced at naval checkpoints.
Trump won’t do that.
This is theater for the voters who like the strong guy BS.
He won’t risk a rare earth cutoff by China.
Markets have seen this movie before—temporary disruption, new trade routes, same barrels, different paperwork.
Art Berman
All of the oil guys who I follow on the net are of the opinion that it is an act of frustration . These guys put their money where their mouth is unlike Bloomberg , Reuters ,FT and Telegraph .
Sanctions and blockades are two entirely different things. The former is economic warfare and the latter is actual warfare.
Ocean-going deliveries can’t be expected to make u-turns under sanctions as they can be expected to with blockades.
Thanks for the link – first time I’ve ever seen anything sensible on CNBC!
Germany is pissing in its pants .
”According to the ministry spokesperson, US sanctions should not apply to Rosneft’s German assets, as they are separate from the Russian parent company and are under German external management ”
https://tass.com/economy/2034361
Thank you for this video Ravi.
Dr. Anas Ahajji says that it is not possible to replace 4 mbd on the planet.
Additionally he confirms what Gail has been saying since a long ago that US oil is light and sweet and the two types don’t match.
In technical words I think he means, but doesn’t say explicitly, that no diesel and no jet fuel is possible with only US oil.
That is by now ‘il segreto di Pulcinella’ of the world
😀
It is official ”PM Modi vs Trump: India Rejects Trump’s Misleading Russian Oil Claims ”
Would someone educate me about what India has to offer in terms of trade to back the Rupee to pay for all this Russian oil? I know India exports its workers in a range of roles here in the US, from 7-Eleven franchisee owners to medical doctors to certain medical corporations like Vohra Wound Care out of Miramar FL to exploit US Medicare (Dr Vohra came to US via Britain I think) but does India mine, manufacture, grow, or offer any other useful productive service to the US?
Hubbs , simple answer — nothing . The rupee trade was sometime during the first phase of oil sanctions in 2022/2023 . Russia accumulated about INR 3 billion in the nostro account but there was nothing that India could export to Russia . Russia then exited the rupee trade and went back to the dollar trade . To avoid dollar banking sanctions it is using payment systems via Dubai , Cyprus , Ireland etc where the US turns a blind eye . In the meanwhile the rupees held in the nostro account are slowly being utilised to import a few items from India which are footwear , hosiery , woollen knitted items , cheap textiles and generic pharma products etc . I think the rupee account will be settled by the end of 2025 . I hope this answers your question .
Thanks.
In your perspective, why is the US turning a blind eye, meaning why the circus of sanctions in the first place though?
– necessary within cat fighting of US domestic factions
– keeping at bay psychotic old money EUR-peoplez
– sanctions are meant seriously yet only within some to public undisclosed boundaries, i.e. the plan is indeed to enforce but only “sanctions lite” in effect
– Hudson&Wolff theory of imploding empire: don’t over-analyze them it’s a down-spiraling mess
..
.
=> all of the above?
Waiting for Ravi’s reply, I’d like to give my not-requested opinion:
because it is like with drugs, due to the high request, the goods will always find a way to enter the market, so the best thing for an extortionist is to become the dealer.
The answer is that US and politicians must be seen to be doing something even if it is useless . The politicians will always save themselves and leave an escape hatch . For example the US is aware of the tax havens in the Caribbean islands but does nothing . Why ? Because they are needed for their own black operations . Cayman is the 4th largest holder of treasuries . Many argue these are nothing but US proxies of the FED . Same for Luxembourg which is 6th largest . Ireland 7th largest . Something like the insider trading laws in the US . Congress and senate members are allowed and have immunity but Martha Stewart was sent to jail .
The US has satellite surveillance and knows where the ship to ship transfer of sanctioned oil is taking place but will turn a blind eye because any effort to curb this will lead to war . As reante has pointed out sanctions is economic war but blockade is an actual war . Better to turn a blind eye then war . Anyway I will let George Carlin explain it better . It’s a big club and you aint in it .
List of items (categories) and value of exports:
https://tradingeconomics.com/india/exports/russia
You mean I actually have to PAY for SHIPPING????
Settlement talks could prevent need for regulatory hearing
Dispute stems from budget overruns during Trans Mountain’s expansion
Tolling uncertainty has cast doubt on ability of Canadian government to attract pipeline buyer
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trans-mountain-pipeline-canada-oil-shippers-talks-resolve-shipping-cost-dispute-2025-10-22/
CALGARY, Oct 22 (Reuters) – The operator of Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline and oil shippers are in talks to resolve a shipping cost dispute that has deterred usage of Canada’s only east-west pipeline and hindered the government’s plan to sell it.
Documents filed with the Canada Energy Regulator on Tuesday by Trans Mountain Corp and a group of oil shippers including Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO), opens new tab, Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ.TO), opens new tab, and ConocoPhillips Canada said the parties are having “active commercial discussions.”
…..
The completed in 2024 tripled the pipeline’s capacity, but the final price tag was nearly quintuple a 2017 estimate.
While approximately 70% of cost overruns will be borne by Trans Mountain Corp, the remaining more than $9 billion are to be covered by tolls under a formula agreed to by shippers and approved by the Canada Energy Regulator more than a decade ago.
Contracted shippers now pay nearly twice what Trans Mountain had estimated in 2017. Spot shippers pay even higher rates.
Some shippers have pushed back against the higher tolls, arguing they are not responsible for cost overruns incurred during construction. The Canada Energy Regulator had been set to hold a hearing on the tolls next month.
Since the expansion’s startup in May 2024, the Trans Mountain pipeline has been less full than its operator had earlier forecast, in part because its higher tolls are deterring utilization.
If the final toll structure comes in below what Trans Mountain is looking for, it will make it harder for the pipeline to recoup its construction costs and could impact its potential selling price, analysts say.
Trans Mountain CEO Mark Maki said in June he believes the Canadian government can recover its investment in the pipeline, but should hold off on the sale until uncertainties around tolling and utilization are resolved.
Hahahaha….ah, that’s too bad….no free lunch…build it from the top of a mountain and use gravity next time idiots…just joking
Norman, you are right the US leadership is completely mad. Yes, they are openly talking about a third term! Congress refuses to do its duty. The courts are bought by everybody in sight.
Looks like every thing within 2000 miles of Tel Aviv becomes Greater Israel.
Enough of ‘doing its duty’. I am sick of that.
The congress will do nothing and so be it.
About the Chinese refusal to buy Russian Oil
When everyone sees Romeo and Juliet, they only think about the two star crossed lovers.
Very few people think about Benvolio, Romeo’s cousin.
Since Romeo was the last remaining member of the Montechi, Benvolio, probably the son of Romeo’s father’s sister, becomes the heir of the clan.
Benvolio did absolutely nothing to deserve that fate but he becomes the winner of the play, like Fortinbras of Hamlet, who does nothing but just shows up in time for Hamlet to croak and gains the Throne of Denmark without any effort.
China will sit out of fights between roundeyes and take over when it is over.
If US and Russia have a nuclear war the US will nuke the top 50 Chinese cities.
>> About the Chinese refusal to buy Russian Oil
Where are you getting this info? Seems dubious. China and Russia and building a new pipeline through Mongolia while China throttles rare earths to USA. This doesn’t exactly seem like they’re accommodating US demands. Meanwhile Russia delivered Mig-29 SMT to Iran.
So what I can find is:
>> According to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), quoted by “Reuters“ on October 23, China’s major state-owned oil corporations – PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC and Zhenhua Oil, have stopped purchases of offshore Russian oil “at least temporarily“. This decision follows the sanctions imposed on October 22 by the US on the Russian state company „Rosneft“ and the private „Lukoil“.
In short, ISW (nonsense think tank) is the source of claims that have been widely disseminated.
whatever can keep the west schizo will work. it is obvious that trump will get in front of the press and claim credit for it.
Exclusive: China state oil majors suspend Russian oil buys due to sanctions, sources say
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-state-oil-majors-suspend-russian-oil-buys-due-sanctions-sources-say-2025-10-23/
Really?
Right? Someone is just having a laugh
The Chinese chose to sit out in a struggle between the atrive and the Tatars
It didn’t seem plausible to me, either — don’t believe everything.
Are China’s strategic reserve facilities now full?
Has the world economy contracted so much that there is a temporary “surplus” in oil which allows China and India to become compliant with the US?
And of course the ME oil producers will love being able to keep a floor under their prices and income with no competition from Russia.
The python may have regurgitate this pig.
How long will it take Russia to figure out it has two choices surrender or fight. If it goes with the slow death by a thousand cuts how long before it falls?
It’s too practised to have any concern. It’s just normal for Russia.
It is just normal for Russia. Today, they said… USA is now at War with Russia.
Medvedev: “The US is now at war with Russia. This is Trump’s war, not senile old Biden’s.”
So, it goes they way it always goes. They just have to deal with it…. which they will.
Huh? War production effort increases by 10-20-50x multiples per given items in few yrs time is not enough? This second round since 2022 was by choice not a “shock & awe” – given the concrete defensive lines build up for a previous decade.
Perhaps, you could look at msm around for more detail..
For example, the aerial campaign precisely targets grid infrastructure and defending AA doesn’t exist much now outside Kiev capital, if continued in current tempo there won’t be any grid left (even for ~possible electricity imports from the EU) by Q2-Q3 next year.. i.e. total collapse en route.
Oddities? Yes, there are evidently some special – mindset / background related peculiarities as to the pace of this conflict is concerned.
For example, when RU guys per given area firstly take out the high value targets (US/EU wheeled weaponry), then destroy/repel the core cadre; often times what they found in individual basements sitting UKR drafted ~elderly guys, w/out ammo, no food, .. but they are just sitting there – not necessarily out of bravery – they simply don’t believe they lost or clueless where to turn next, and punishments for desertion are brutal, although at that point nobody left to execute it anyway.. The ugly one sided ratio of prisoners of war taken tells this crystal clear.
Russia is also taking out railroad infrastructure. At some point, it will be so damaged and supplies for repairs so scarce that rail transport will pretty much cease.
If Russia accelerated their campaign, and I don’t know if that is possible, a lot of Ukrainians would be very cold and hungry this winter, and this would precipitate large emigration into eastern Europe.
Hey Fitz are you willing to publicly commit to not using USD stablecoins for the next two years? (Don’t commit to that!)
Kevin piles on. These economic horror stories basically write themselves. I remember thinking the bombing of NS would eventually kill millions of Europeans before their time, and feeling grief. Not anymore as these idiots are about as smart as sheep.
I take it that NS = Nord Stream pipeline, bringing natural gas from Russia to Germany and other places. Germany and others can’t get the idea that pipeline gas is the way to go–LNG is terribly high priced.
Germany’s electricity costs were already very high, before the current problems arose. A lot of this had to do with the use of wind and solar to partially power the grid. Also LNG.
The 19th package of sanctions appears to be a bigger escalatory step, specially considering that it is accompanied by bombing refineries, and I suspect also by some high sea interdiction. Of course the Estonians can always be counted on to commit suicide, but the last interdiction by the french was over after a day and a couple phone calls. The financial situation on either side of the atlantic is desperate and escalation appears to be the only way out (to those in charge).
I have been wondering if the US government shut down will ever end.
I expect that at some point, the US government may permanently shut down, in one of these shutdowns. But I have been hoping that it would not be this one.
again
Trump wants government shutdown.
its part of what is clearly set out in project 25
Nothing about Trump wanting a government shutdown it in here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025
Hag on, better go to the source.
No, nothing in here either:
https://static.heritage.org/project2025/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf
Unless it’s set out clearly in Gibberish.
Anyway, the Democrats have orchestrated the government shutdown, not the Republicans. Even your single source of truth, the BBC, admits that, in their usual grudging and prevaricating style:
“Republicans and Democrats could not agree to pass a bill funding government services past 1 October, when the federal budget expired.
Under the US system, Congress must agree on a spending plan to send to the President to sign into law.
The Republicans currently control both chambers of Congress. But in the Senate – or upper chamber – they are short of the 60 votes needed to pass the spending bill, which gives opposition Democrats some negotiating power.”
Meanwhile, it has been reported that Chuck Upper—beg pardon, Chuck Shumer—has just blocked the 12th GOP bid to reopen the government. Now, if this is what Trump wants, why would the leader of the Democrats in the senate do that?, I ask myself.
all true. You can’t expect Norm to have a shred of rationality when it comes to trump. it is a meme for a certain segment of the populace. a puppet turned into the devil. Mentally we are already back to the Middle Ages.
er—the following is an extract from project 2025. outlining the main aims of it:
/////The document itself, sets out four main policy aims: restore the family as the centrepiece of American life; dismantle the administrative state; defend the nation’s sovereignty and borders; and secure God-given individual rights to live freely./////
note the sentence….. “dismantle the administrative state”
is that clear enough for you?
Perhaps you could re-interpret the meaning of that into something other than shutdown?
I would be interested.
And—the ”right to live freely” means taking those rights from someone else. –especially—most especially,— the god given variety.
have you noticed that god is very picky about who he gives ”rights” to.??
Any history book confrms that.
altering voting districts is already under way. LGPTQ people are certainly not included in those rights.
but maybe you want to be ruled by pseudo godbotherers.
and yes we are back in the middle ages, where the wrong god could get you burned alive.—no different from germany in the 30s and 40s. (or, for that matter, the “strange fruit” of the American south over the samne period )…
Or maybe you delude yourself that times have changed??
either it was the dems who caused the shutdown or it was not. and over time it has been done by both parties. stick to what trump does (like create chaos, facilitate the murder of children and fishermen) and you will do fine.
check the containment pressure necessary for the energy-volume of hydrogen for the same energy-volume of petrol.
Yes, the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 includes a policy initiative aimed at “dismantling the administrative state.” This concept generally refers to efforts to reduce the size and scope of federal regulatory agencies and their influence over various sectors, emphasizing a return to more limited government and greater state and local control.
Key Aspects of the Policy:
Regulatory Reform: The initiative advocates for significant regulatory rollbacks, aiming to eliminate regulations deemed excessive or unnecessary.
Decentralization: It encourages shifting power from federal agencies to state and local governments, allowing for more localized governance.
Accountability: There is a focus on increasing accountability and transparency within federal agencies to limit bureaucratic overreach.
This policy reflects a broader ideological stance within certain conservative circles that seeks to streamline government functions and reduce regulatory burdens.
It does not in any shape or form refer to the goal of shutting down the Federal Government. That’s purely a Democrat goal and a Democrat strategy and a Democrat action.
But nice try, Norman!
“I have been wondering if the US government shut down will ever end.”
How much time do you think programs like Social Security, Medicaid, and Medicare have remaining?
They perhaps will erode before they go away completely. I don’t know. These will be things to fight about.
Earlier, my guess was that they would be handed over to the states to handle because the federal government can’t afford them.
It has amazed me that things have gone on as well as they have, as long as they have.
Healthcare worked fairly well at 5% of GDP back in 1960 (general practitioners, few big fancy machines, simple cheap hospitals, no terribly expensive drugs). Maybe someone can figure a way to get the system back in this direction again.
Keep it shut. Starve out the welfare rats.
lets hope you never need welfare ed
when you do—we will find out what kind of rat poison suits you best.
We can relocate the hungry to England. England has generous benefits.
‘Welfare’ affects’ the private sector. Welfare income is not ‘spent’ in the public sector.
It provides income for those in the private sector when it is ‘spent’ in the private sector.
If you think the collapse of the federal government would only affect those on welfare, it’s important to consider the wider consequences. For example, the money in your wallet is backed by the federal government.
https://korybko.substack.com/p/five-reasons-why-trump-is-once-again
Five Reasons Why Trump Is Once Again Escalating Against Russia
They’re all primarily due to his belief (however possibly mistaken) that Putin won’t risk tensions spiraling out of control in response. . .
1. He’s Driving A Hard Bargain To Coerce Putin Into Maximum Concessions
2. The Warmongers Appear To Have Once Again Made Him Change His Mind
3. Trump Seems To Truly Believe That Any Escalation Will Remain Manageable
4. He’s Also Not Abandoning His Stratagem Of Dividing-And-Ruling Eurasia
Senior refinery executives told NDTV that “Flows of Russian oil to major Indian processors are expected to fall to near zero” after the latest sanctions, which could divide the newly solidified Russia-India-China (RIC) triangle if true. Trump might also expect that China will do the same to get him to curtail the additional 100% tariffs that he threatened to impose on it next month. He could still be proven wrong on both counts, but in any case, his latest escalation shows that he’s still trying to divide-and-rule Eurasia.
5. Trump Might Be Betting On Chinese Non-Compliance With The Latest Sanctions
China isn’t expected to comply with the US’ latest sanctions since it’ll gain by purchasing at a steep discount whatever oil Russia might soon be unable to sell to India. The interim Sino-US trade deal might then collapse if Trump imposes his threatened tariffs on China and makes their curtailing conditional on it dumping Russian oil. He might even want this predictable sequence of events to unfold, however, so as to justify accelerating his planned “Pivot (back) to (East) Asia” for more muscularly containing China.
La Stampa in Italy states that China will stop buying Russian oil now. I am sure that korybko and lastampa are right sometimes.
dear drb753,
if India and expecially China will stop buying Russian Oil after this escalation, it really means that it is enough for ‘daddy’ to raise the voice that all the children will shout their mouth and go to bed.
shut
It map illustrates the level of gov. strength/self-esteem/preparedness to proactive alt. strategies/..
Evidently, RU+CHN+NK+ .. score highly, while India is not in similar position at all, i.e. much weaker gov position in domestic terms, can’t “command” – hardly nudge – key industrial sectors and local magnates be it ~fully domestic, nor the foreign %owned..
Basically, these kind of [sanction games] serve us lurkers very handy as [basic thermometer] so to speak to measure actual state of things.
When/if countries in the ME, LatAmerica, Asia seriously sidestep a few inches out of the leashes applied to them – only then the confirmation about world’s settings alteration has been pursued for real.
And when Russia agrees to accept USD stablecoins such that China and India can start importing oil again is when we will all know that the Hand exists. Right gang? You know, Lockstep 2.0. Except for tagio. tagio will need to see cash-strapped China selling gold so that it can get its hangs on stablecoins. Because the answer to the joke or not joke question was not joke. But first comes the BNS.
The Overton window here at OFW is moving at lightning speed. I can feel it.
You’ve got a point there, Reante.
Acceptance of USD stable coins can be seen as a gesture of kowtowing to the US-centered world order.
If you want to play roulette or poker at the Trump Casino, you are going to have to use his chips.
Otherwise, you have to stick to the slot machines.
Alternatively, if you want to survive nuclear Collapse, you have to play the hand the Hand’s dealt everyone. Because it’s the only Degrowth game in town.
Russia would never submit to USD stablecoins in a world without a Hand. But the BNS comes first.
MOA, Escobar, Fitz, and the rest of the conventional anti-imperial dissidents are experiencing a major dose of cognitive dissonance today with the Chinese partial capitulation.
Hudson & Wolff revived – blast from the past – recalling at that Persian YTchannel recently that 2yrs ago Germany just checked about their metal stored in the US and was denied. I do vaguely remember that as well, otherwise completely forgotten.
As under their overall narrative when both the (wobbly)synced western and US dominant world order is phasing out – lot of crazy things are taking place at the same time in great succession – tempo..
Nevertheless, we are not there yet, long and winding route ahead, after-all this is at minimum ~100(US)yrs cycle within the greater ~500(Western)yrs persisting cycle..
As a matter of fact Reante Russia has just passed a law allowing settling of business transactions via crypto. 3 days ago I think. Too busy to read the text but maybe next week I will post.
🇷🇺 Russia to Allow Cryptocurrency Settlements in Foreign Trade
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced that the government and the Central Bank have agreed to legalize and regulate crypto transactions for international trade.
“We see major potential in crypto payments and cryptocurrencies. Payments for imports and currency transfers abroad are already happening through crypto markets. We’ve therefore agreed with the Central Bank on the need to formalize and legalize this sphere, with tighter control,” Siluanov said.
🔴 @DDGeopolitics | Socials | Donate | Advertising
Thanks drb. The EU I think basically just did the same thing. Warpspeed 2.0.
as stated in another comment, I was corrcted. it is a few months from passing. but it will probably pass.
You guys could have made presentation about the Crypto in terms of big gov powers out there..
For me it’s inconceivable, chiefly because of the perceived (by me) fragility of the global IT network, and regional data cloud centers etc., similarly the emergent sky-space internet by various operators is also demanding on upkeep service (right?) – new satellites needed after while..
Perhaps from other (reversed) perspective [- if they – ] key gov centers are now engaging in cryptos – that means on their initiative partly hedging into unknown future yet NOT under total doom umbrella. Hence [they must assume/bet on] some knowledge-parameters the ~PO induced civ-breakout won’t be short-mid termish such a mess at all..
So, for example should they assume the next 5-15yrs episode to be of bitter huckstering, limited proxy wars but intact gov cryptos sanctuaries etc., and thus waiting eventually for the dust settling on the newly accepted arrangement-reconciliation among these powers forward.
ps I know you kind of did it already here but more basic structure in laymen terms would be appreciated someday
drb for sure it will, only faint complaints from Nabby at the central bank lol. So much for the central banking mafia game that is being phased-out in realtime, for the Phase 2 national socialisms that are all financially based on digital Lincoln greenbacks. It’s the only way to reverse engineer the civilization for the nuclear power industry’s Glide Path Option. Hopefully everyone can quickly get over their disappointment from having their East vs West false dialectic dashed, so that we can come together here.
3 months til it’s legislated is better timing anyhow. Gives the BNS time to play out. Same with the EU.
bhh if you hadn’t been lurking here for a few weeks before you started commenting then you’re just kinda late to the game. I predicted about six years ago that CBDCs were a misdirection play and that what the Hand was actually planning was a return to Treasury-based national public banking systems. Ending the Fed and the private central banking system in general. Reverting to national socialisms: decentralized national public banking systems along with syndicalist markets with strong anti- trust laws (socialism).
I called those new dollars Digital Greenbacks. Not ‘greenbacks’ as in slang for FRNs, but formal greenbacks as in Lincoln Greenbacks from when Abe tried to wrest back public control of the banking system from the private money masters, and got assassinated for it
USD Stablecoins are those digital greenbacks because they are almost entirely pegged to short-term treasuries and physical dollars. Those two financial assets are what all financialized preppers should be holding and, therefore, it shouldn’t surprise us that that is also what the Hand is prepping for Phase 2 of Collapse with.
Almost every other country is going to hyperinflate against the deflating dollar and they need a reserve currency to hyperinflate into or they suffer catastrophic collapse and the spent fuel pools explode, threatening extinction. So accessing digital greenbacks props them up while the astronomical demand for treasuries also props up the reserve currency nation while the private banking system everything bubble deleverages into ashes. Public banking phoenix rising from the ashes such that civilization has a few ugly years to decommission the nuclear power industry which is the primary function of the Non-Public Degrowth Agenda.
The art of diplomacy eh?
Ah well….maybe 3i/atlas will swing by and spray the planet with laughing gas? Couldn’t hurt….
Today’s ‘economic sanctions’ employed against other countries is the Geopolitical Equivalent of Erectile Dysfunction (TM; GEED]
Posted by: canuk | Oct 23 2025 16:22 utc | 19
MoA
Isn’t it funny, actually it could be priority and likelyhood-wize reordered just upside down, i.e. most likely key reason 5 !
Top priority:
#1 (listed 5)
#2 (listed 4)
#3 (listed 3)
..
.
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/10/22/us-treasury-debt-hits-38-trillion-after-spiking-by-1-trillion-in-2-5-months-and-by-1-8-trillion-since-the-debt-ceiling/
A trillion in just 2.5 months! Is this right? Are pensioners doomed?
The amount of future goods and services available depends upon the fossil fuels we can extract and other materials we can extract to make physical goods and services.
The government can claim to pay $38 trillion in the future, but it is questionable how much that will actually buy. If I were making the future payments, I would pay the farmers first. I would also pay others closely involved with production. This leads me to doubt that the system will be able to pay much to pensioner. This also goes for holders of paper wealth of all kinds. Even gold and silver won’t work, if there is little to buy.
Workers will come out best. Claimed saving cannot do as well as in the past.
Agree. Au/Ag are not increasing in value to give a profit to the holder, they maintain purchasing power and in that are a stabler means of exchange.
Dennis L.
1. Protect the gut
2. Feed the brain
3. Support the liver
Dr. Robert Lustig talks about dementia, the biological processes that lead to it, and how the eating the wrong kind of diet is one of the principal drivers.
He says that reactive oxygen species, or ROS, which are produced when the mitochondria burn their fuel, are not necessarily our friends metabolically speaking, and so we need to clear them up before they do too much damage.
He also explains in an easy-to-grasp fashion how the mitochondria produce energy and notes that the fuel they run on, ATP (adenosine triphosphate), converts to adenosine diphosphate (ADP), then to adenosine monophosphate (AMP), and finally to adenosine with no phosphate whatsoever.
There are alternate theories for Alzheimers, for example that it is the result of viruses in the brain. This woman claims antivirals (eg. those taken against herpes) greatly reduce the incidence of dementia. I haven’t had time to verify the claim.
She says that the theory of autoimmunity since the 1970s has shut off research into whether viruses are really the cause of people’s long term problems. Figured out how to use immune suppression drugs to hide the symptoms instead. Doesn’t incentive pharmaceutical companies to look for solutions.
Her theory: Infections are hiding in our body. Hide in people’s tissue, not necessarily in their blood. Look at lymph nodes and other tissue samples, such as from endometriosis. Get doctors to save some of the tissue. Even from vagus nerve from people who have recently died.
Get a map of where infections might be by giving people an antiviral that is tagged to show up in full body scans.
Need to find surgeons willing to participate. Also provide dry ice. Academia mostly looking for grants from NIH. Specialize early. Keep going in the same direction, to get the grants they need.
This is the first 20 minutes.
Thanks for posting this, Ivan. I will watch it soon. Lots to do today.
It’s amazing to me that there are still so many theories out there about what makes us healthy and what makes us sick. Some of them must be on the ball, but a lot of them contradict each other.
Dr. Lutsig starts off by saying that the two major non-sugar sweeteners used in soft drinks have been shown to give off large amounts of ROS, which cause dementia.
The whole video is interesting. He says that (some) ultra-processed foods can be re-engineered to get rid of the damaging effects. In fact, he worked on a project in Kuwait aimed at changing the processing of 18 ultra processed foods to make them healthy.
Going back to basics, and ultra-processed issue aside..
So, given the overall [ROS debate] is it generally more advisable (as by common sense anyway) to cook everything on lower temp (shorter time)? Apart from obvious fruit-sugary layered pastries, lasagnas; for example also, ~salty cakes and quasi-pizzas (lot of veggies, cheese, not mentioning the dough itself etc.) are often described as ~200C baking per instructions (diy context – not freezer alley shopping!). I’ve came to the practical conclusion years ago that it’s much better for preserving taste, texture, .. to initiate baking at high temp but then swiftly after first 3-7mins dialing down to say 165-175C max to the end, i.e. mostly working on lower temps.. obviously it should be all pre-coated with quality oil to begin with.. or if beyond reach sort of moisted up a bit at least.. (Seriously meant inquiry)
ps actually along the similar lines (of ~lower temps and coated moisture) have been advocating the top chefs in the meat domain for ages – but as pastured meat is beyond reach usually – it’s strongly advisable to limit intake of the tainted industrial grain fed one to the minimum..
Interesting points.
For those who think in Fahrenheit, ~200 C translates to about close to 400F. 165 C to 175 C translates to something like 325F to 350F.
I have run into the higher temperatures particularly on cooking winter squashes. Recipes say that the baked squash will be sweeter if baked at a higher temperature, even 450 F.
If true, more technology to solve the problems caused by technology. Isn’t it simpler to eat real unprocessed foods?
I agree. But the doctor was contacted by a food company that wanted to make healthier ultra processed foods.
Lustig is probably only partially right.
if you stop using any part of your body to the fullest extent possible (for your age), it will make an assumption, independently, that it is no longer needed, and will shut itself down.
disease can overide this, of course, and ultimately extreme old age, but in general terms, if you make all your body functions work , they will go on working for you.
I quite agree. Use it or lose it.
And I’ve seen a lot of younger people who have lost the use of a lot of functions—both physical and mental—simply by abandoning their use.
This is why I still try to walk everywhere whenever possible, even though my neighbors seeing me on the road, often offer me a lift. And why I insist on doing arithmetic in my head or else on paper rather than using a calculator unless the numbers get so large that I have to scratch my forehead.
Elizabeth Nickson writes attacking conservation biology, Limits to Growth, and the hidden agenda behind it that she sees as destroying rural life almost everywhere. There is much to cheer, or even to jeer at in this. It is both thought- and emotion-provoking.
Highlights:
Conservation biology, a new iteration of biology, was brought into being at the University of Southern California in the 1970s and has enjoyed a long and powerful reign, coming to steer land use almost everywhere. Not long enough to be tested, apparently, because it has received very little testing, but long enough to be audited. The results are disastrous. Conserved ranges are desertifying, conserved forests dying, and watersheds so badly managed that that magnificent triumph of civil engineering — the dams, waterworks, and irrigation of the American river system — is being overwhelmed. And, from the Serengeti to New Mexico’s boot heel, wherever people have been cleared from the land, biodiversity collapses. It is axiomatic.
Fix this and you fix the swings and ladders of national economies. You create a base of wealth, prosperity, innovation, and fertility. Every town has an economy, a factory, a range, farmland, commerce. It can feed itself. It is independent. It births and nurtures independent, creative people. The town’s people are engaged.
The decision to export all manufacturing to China was another stupid decision, decided upon at the United Nations, and part of Agenda 2030. Which had, too, as its intent, emptying the American heartland and west of people.
The entire world feeds off the wealth that was created in the United States, starting in 1776 and lasting until 1970. And the prosperity was just that. Thousands upon thousands of towns, townships, villages and counties. Millions of families embedded in a natural landscape.
When the Club of Rome was launched in 1971, its first demonic publication was The Limits to Growth. The study was a pseudo-intellectual pile of manure pushed by the Rockefellers, the Rothschilds, the Mountbatten-Windsors, and every preening aristocratic monkey on earth.
And, eventually, more monsters were struck including Conservation International out of the United Nations, an outfit which busily began ‘saving’ massive chunks of land across the world, taking the most beautiful and the richest in resources of every country and declaring it off limits. Since most of that land had been inhabited by indigenous or traditional peoples, they were driven from the land and sent into the cities to scrape a living. And the resource? The land? They could not use it to create wealth. Conservation International has single-handedly driven 30 million people off their ancestral lands, dwarfing the settler clearance of the American Indian by an order of magnitude.
https://elizabethnickson.substack.com/p/the-bountiful-economy-of-the-future
Have not heard about Lord Mountbatten for at least 2-3decades.. memory holed.. for younger generations.. wow.
Not sure I’d subscribe to all of this mixed up article though.
The results of conservation biology are disastrous. I had not heard this before, probably because I never looked at conservation biology.
One DeGrowth conference (of some type) that I attended suggested planting big areas with selected plants and running waste water through this for cleaning. I couldn’t imagine the cost or the effectiveness. Since these plants would have to be dug up elsewhere and planted, I had real doubts about how this would work. But someone had put together a project on this basis.
As the squatters continue to flee, more nazis are exposed to the world.
Sean Glass(unusual name for the region) should be very careful when he goes outside in future(with that pasty white skin, sunny climates are inadvisable).
https://substack.com/@parislychee/note/c-168943387?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=7c6fx
Of all the children, being named for Hind. Not a good day for Sean.
Would you please provide a comprehensive definition or list of every category of people who qualifies as a ‘nazi’ so that I might understand the contemporary alt-Left definition of the word? Is it possible that it just means Zionist or is that far too broad?
It’s really very simple, as this helpful video explains:
Manspreading lol
“Last week, the San Francisco Bay Area-based firm announced the start of commercial operations for its first 100-megawatt-hour “heat battery,” located at a Holmes Western Oil Corp. facility in Kern County, the heart of the Central California oil patch.
The installation is housed in what looks like a four-story prefabricated office building. Inside sits a massive stack of refractory bricks, which are heated to temperatures of more than 1,000 degrees Celsius (1,832 degrees Fahrenheit) by an adjoining 20-megawatt solar array. That heat is tapped to generate steam that is injected into oil wells to increase production — a job previously done by a fossil-gas-fired boiler.”
https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/clean-industry/rondo-first-big-heat-battery-oil-california?amp%3Butm_medium=email&%3Butm_campaign=canary&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8lz43ofSWs6xo9EOQpYq9_SFP3pJhbBwXMcQ5koNb40cxxs-94iIIrXC-ms24xvCtn0KRhaIenGr_JclddUy1x5iF3Wg&_hsmi=386353855&utm_source=newsletter
Nice find.
Dennis L.
this is the same concept that lies in ruins in the spanish desert. why should it work now?
I guess the nuance here is probably the heat (after the bricks phase) is ~directly used as steam in the drilled oil wells. While in the Spanish plains case ~2decades earlier there were more side steps in the energy transformation involved after-all, wasn’t it also necessary to introduce [new refined generation of Sterling engine] or such.. ? And hence it did not pan out..
There is a huge amount of heavy oil available if a cheap way of providing the heat to get it out can be found. If this kind of thing can be scaled up, it might be just the right thing.
On their site (Rondo Energy) they specifically claim use of PV array feeding that solid thermal storage (+optionally wind), and lets imagine perhaps even additional modality through say taping geothermal, thermal solar, .. could be possible..
Now, the #1 option of PV aspect to evaluate would be [global insolation map] specific. So, for example some over cloudy ~Equatorial sites won’t be as effective as more northerly selected installation sites, yet gaining quality fluids. For larger ME region and its sun irradiation ~no clouds 365 context this could be phenomenal. In the North proper useless, unless some local cheap waste fuel used (coal nearby, and or some specific grades of nuclear waste?)..
For those with child like acceptance of anything an ad says, your fake intelligence friend, is out to get you(imagine being gullible enough to believe it was ever anything else).
“People often confide in chatbots about things they’d never post publicly, lulled into a sense the AI is a neutral listener.”
“The very idea to actively limits someone’s access to the real world, or to information, through “personalizing their experience” is nothing short of cognitive violence and brute manipulation even with the best of intentions, and a global rollout of this approach specifically designed to favor the objectives of capital is of course beyond dystopian”
https://shadowrunners.substack.com/p/facebook-reveals-additional-mode
How anyone still falls for the sales bs, truly beggars belief.
It’s not your friend.
It’s not there to help you.
It’s there to condition, control and report any wrongthink.
It was never about solving our problems.
It was always about solving their problems.
Their problems are of course, us.
That last sentence is what holds you back WADR. It’s old-thinking oppositional defiant disorder illuminati primitivism. Us vs them. Self-dividing and self-conquering. And it’s all puffery because you don’t eat without them, and you wouldn’t have even been born if it wasn’t for them. Likewise they don’t eat without you servicing them. Welcome to civilization. Once you accept that true nature of the relationship then you can start seeing the true nature of Collapse dynamics. You bargain with Collapse indirectly by bargaining with Civilization. That’s why you’re angry. And it’s not the clarifying type of anger. I’ve been there. Only an anti-civ mindset can free us for seeing accurately. The reason that The Automatic Earth blog in its prime had the greatest commentariat of all-time imo is because about a half-dozen of the top dogs there birthed into full-fledged anti-civ thinkers in real time and the think tanking truly blossomed. That place was fierce and intense. The two top dogs (Nicole not included) were rivals but they were both anti-civ, so the rivalry was deeper than our — yours and mines — topical rivalry.
USDA announces SNAP (FOOD) benefits will not be issued in November
https://www.wabi.tv/2025/10/21/usda-announces-snap-benefits-will-not-be-issued-november/
Looks like a reverse thanksgiving this year.
Chinese state media says US ‘dying from within’ as Beijing drafts next 5-year plan
“Tuesday’s commentary sought to highlight the situation in the United States, saying that “political polarisation is intensifying … and domestic governance is increasingly strained” in the country.
“Where is the dignity of a major power? For decades, the US maintained its glossy image through global hegemony, but now it has entered a downward spiral of decline,” it said.
“The halo was always an illusion, and the myth was fragile. To borrow Trump’s own words: America has, in many ways, become a failed state, it is ‘dying from within’.”
The commentary cited recent large-scale protests across America and the US federal government shutdown as well as Trump’s tariff measures, which it described as “having once again backfired on ordinary Americans”.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/chinese-state-media-says-us-093000307.html
There are more important matters like building the $250 million ball room . The emperor fiddles while Rome is burnt down .
”https://time.com/7327752/trump-white-house-ballroom-funding-donors/
https://time.com/7327752/trump-white-house-ballroom-funding-donors/
There is a list of donors given including quite a few big companies and individual donors. Also:
Over $20 million is set to come from YouTube’s settlement of a 2021 lawsuit filed by Trump over his suspension of his account following the January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. Of the $24.5 million to be paid in the settlement, it specifies that $22 million will go toward the development of a White House ballroom. YouTube is owned by Google, which is among the listed donors.
In New York State the whites north of NYC are taxed to pay the Africans in NYC to vote democrat. While living in decrepit rotting buildings with decrepit rotting subways, schools, and roads.
It seems the dems want to extend this model to the whole country. Impoverish the whites with taxes and zero investment in new factories and infrastructure to enrich the politicians and their brown shirts. The whites are still signing up for the military so I would say they are doomed.
My pension check came through in October.
with the don building his ballroom
it looks like a ”let them eat cake” situation….
Qu’ils mangent des treasury bonds. Or de la democracie.
crypto n cream will make a nice dessert too
I agree that this is a problem. My impression is that what happens varies by state. The notice was for Maine. Perhaps not all states will be affected as quickly.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/23/states-snap-food-aid-benefits-government-shutdown-00619117
At least 25 states plan to cut off food aid benefits in November
The pause in benefits for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program would begin in states from California to Alabama just before the busy holiday season.
cutting off food benefits is another factor in creating civil unrest…
push things far enough and civil disorder is certain…
when that happens, military intervention also becomes certain…
then elections will be suspended (temporarily of course)
after that full on dictatorship kicks in… ICE becomes Trump private army. owing allegiance only to him personally. The conventional military will do nothing. The generals were assembled in one place to give them the new rules.
just like ive been warning about for years.
Just substitute Ashkenazi for Trump and I agree. Trump is just a puppet.
at 79, no man can be other than a puppet, one way or another, delaying the inevitable—trust me on that one.
nothing to do with ashkennazi—whatever that means
all to do with money—if the current oil based economic system collapses—the $billions go down with it.
so if the orange idiot seems to be—for the moment—the only way of maintaining the status quo—-then he will be propped up to do the necessary dirty work.
and if that means imposing authoritarian law on the usa—so be it.
it will not prevent ultimate collapse—that is certain, but if youre a multi billionaire , you want to hang on to your billions as long as possible. which means unlimited oilflow. (there is nothing else).
and that is the bottom line on the current insanity…..it has been building to the point fot decades.—one day we had to witness it, well here it is.
the maganuts even put it in writing—-project 2025.
Nothing to do with Trump—everything to do with survival.
A few days ago Hungary and Romania’s oil refineries were targeted. The one in Romania is owned by Russia’s Lukoil, by the way. Well, now a refinery in Slovakia has been attacked. All within a day or two.
https://x.com/Alex_Oloyede2/status/1981068006043373976
>> Fire breaks out at Hungary’s MOL refinery in Slovakia.
I have seen no announcements as to the method used in any of these attacks.
I am sure all the fires are coincidences.
Steel is highly reactive (like dry tinder) to a positron beam. And hydrocarbon vapors are flammable to sparks. Easy peasy leave no trace. Puff the Magic Dragon.
Civil War II anyone?
Transcript:
Alex Jones on Globalist Death Cult Fueling the Next Civil War – Tucker Carlson Show
TUCKER CARLSON: What is the Podesta plan?
ALEX JONES: Well, when I talk about this, I get chills because in August of 2020, Breitbart wrote about it, the Daily Caller wrote about it, but the New York Times wrote about it first. And Podesta does this big Democrat Party war game.
TUCKER CARLSON: Which Podesta? John?
ALEX JONES: John Podesta, former White House. Yep. Absolutely. And then later, the climate czar for Biden… He comes out with this huge report. They published the whole thing, and I read it. It’s like 70 pages or something.
And they say if Trump wins in 2020 (this is in August, months before which they were able to steal it. So he didn’t.) He said, “We’re going to have western states secede. We’re going to have blue cities secede. But we’ll start with the western states, California, Oregon and Washington, and we’ll call it over migrants and sanctuary cities and healthcare at first,” which they’re now doing.
I’m getting chills because it’s all happening… I mean, it’s all right there. And they say if he wins, we will say it’s illegitimate. We will have blue states first secede and that they’re going to be sanctuary cities for the illegals.
Then when there’s civil unrest, which they’ll furnish, Trump will send the National Guard and then there’ll be a massacre of the migrants, and then we will kick off a civil war. Then all the blue cities across the country will secede. Then New York, Massachusetts and others will secede, and we’ll form what we call the Western Alliance.
And we will, then the US Military will be with us because they control the generals…That was Trump’s big mistake. He found out most of them are globalist. It’s the top, not your enlisted. They’re great people.
And that they would then form a military alliance if Trump didn’t stand down and they would march on D.C. And then they made a movie produced two years ago they released last year called “Civil War.” That is the last act of the Podesta plan. That’s in a two plus year Civil War race based… ..So the US Military reconvenes under a Gavin Newsom’s command type. And then they come in and then they take over the country and then they re-educate all the evil right wingers and evil white people.
And then I saw Gavin Newsom on Colbert about three weeks ago and he said, “Oh, we’re forming,” they hold a map up, “the Western Alliance and it’s for migrants and healthcare and we’re getting ready to go on offense.” …
..We have countless videos at rallies in Austin and Denver and New York where the left goes, “Soon Trump and Homan will kill a bunch of us. And when they do, that’s when the uprising begins.” So they’re all read in on this. They all know it is the Podesta plan. They all know it’s the Western Alliance. They all know it’s the Western offense…
..But my point is now you have the No Kings this weekend. And we now have Schumer on Monday went on MSNBC and said, “We need to have a forceful uprising. We need to have a forceful uprising.”
https://singjupost.com/transcript-alex-jones-on-globalist-death-cult-fueling-the-next-civil-war-tucker-carlson-show/
I am afraid that the described scenario could play out.
I don’t have a solution. Families could split over this issue.
It is ugly for old red people living 100 miles north of NYC, with two of three kids living in red territory.
Would appreciate suggestions for bug out locations in the world friendly to whites.
ed
put bugout destinations on your wishlist..
thats all it will ever be
I should not join FE in Perth?
please do
the rest of the ofw inmates will be glad to have a a whipround for the (one way) fare
I learned a new word “whipround” cool. Looks like it will be a two hop flight JFK to Sydney then Sydney to Perth. Perth is not a major air hub. I take that to be a good sign.
if eddy is involved—its likely to be a fake hub
Dont they have whiprounds where you live?
Whiprounds were the original crowdfunding—on a smaller scale, of course.
Sadly, I agree. I have racked my mind and found not bugout option.
the usa is a fully armed nation, weaned on a media that clearly shows that all disputes can be solved by the use of firearms, over the last 100 years or more.
the nation is now also a kleptocracy…
the rich, with the cooperation of the government, are stealing from the poor. (far more than usual)
people with assets in $billions, alongside foodbanks in an abomination.
throughout history, practically every nation where this has happened, has resulted in violent confict.
This is what the government wants, so that elections can be subverted, and then cancelled.
From Professor Jiang (Predictive History) in Beijing
Dante lived in a time of violence and turmoil, and his political enemies exiled him from his beloved Florence. He refused to seek vengeance, and turned to his poetry to save the world from the flames of its own greed and ambition. He spent thirteen years composing La Commedia, singing aloud one line a day. He died shortly after finishing it, and it became the Promethean fire that would give birth to the Renaissance and modernity.
We have come to the end of Dante’s vision, and we need to dream our own. Unfortunately, our schools have become places where we kill the dreams of our children.
The best of our schools are the Hunger Games, and the worst are prisons. We rob our childhood of their childhood, and tell them it’s for their own safety and well-being. We happily drug them in their righteous anger and depression.
We say that our children are our future, but schools treat them as tools for our future prosperity. And they are expendable tools. During Covid, children were least likely to suffer from the disease, but they suffered the most from the lockdowns.
If humanity is to have a future, we must build one for our children. Let us not insult them and ourselves by having them read Malcolm Gladwell and Harry Potter. Surely, it does not bode well for our civilization that schoolchildren and corporate executives read the same books?
Let us have them read Shelley and Dante, and let them understand that they are vessels for the Promethean fire. Their poetry will replenish and rejuvenate civilization, or civilization can only wither and die. If we are to demand of them the ultimate sacrifice, we must make it ourselves.
I have been to many places, met many people, and read many books. Many are born to live a happy life, and I cannot be one of them. I was born to suffer and to endure. For many decades, I have hated the universe for condemning and persecuting me for no fault of my own. With three young children, I see it as the ultimate happiness and honor to suffer and endure for them.
I know the purpose of my life, and it fills me with nothing but joy and hope. I am on a journey to build the last school, a community at the end of the world that promises the birth of a new one. It will be a place in which the Promethean fire will burn bright again.
There are an increasing number of families doing home schooling because they are very unhappy with schools. Most of them are religiously very conservative. They find suitable religiously conservative colleges for their children when they get older. But their education can be lopsided in a number of ways.
As long as the fertility rate is over 2.1 any lopsidedness is secondary.
In my calc classes immediately prior to covid the two best students were homeschooled. One, a girl was what would be a sophomore in high school when she started Calc I, one was a junior – last I saw him he swaggered in with a MIT hoodie, guess he took CalcIII and diff. eq at MIT.
Below(above) Ed is right about 2.1 children. Children are our wealth, without biology there is no economics nor science for that matter.
I think small groups work better, in my home town the best high school was Catholic. Each neighborhood had a catholic grade school and an adjoining church and a convent and rectory. Kul doesn’t approve, but Amish educate their children well in German, English, and math along with their religion.
Once upon a time, during a sermon our pastor told of priests driving large autos. Funny, what I saw were a couple of small autos in the rectory garage with a number of priests and none in the garage of the convent. Narratives are convenient sometimes.
Dennis L.
Anyonr can buy a hoodie. A diploma is tge only valid script.
Priests have no family so they can buy bigher cars. Guess some parishes were poor.
Georges Bernanos wrote about a young priest. The nameless clergyman, whose background is never explained, becomes a confessor to a troubled wealthy noble family. Thr daughter liked him. He could have bilked a lot of money from her but unfortunately for him he had cancer and would only eat some watered down wine and bread, so he declines her approaches. He dies in the room of an ex priest who abandoned the faith.
A wise priest can strike a jackpot if he is ‘talented”.
Dr.. Jiang graduated from Yale. He is connected.
Dante did a great seevice to his enemies. They were little more than historical footnotes but thanks to Dante we still know who they were.
He teaches high school. He is not connected.
High school for future Chinese Elites
It is standard coding if one is for X they are good, if one is against X they are bad.
Pro-degrowth is brilliant they must be the good people.
You will own nothin or you will be CRUSHED.
https://x.com/HustleBitch_/status/1981072579768037607/video/1
How does a walkable city sound now?
Perhaps California is desperate for truck drivers.
It wouldn’t surprise me if the logistics have become more complicated. CA emissions laws on semi trucks forced many independent operators in-state and out of state to stop driving there as the hardware retrofits were prohibitively expensive.
I am surprised ” only $ 36 billion” .
”They soon discovered that the city’s precious metals vaults were largely sold out. While London vaults underpinning the global market hold more than $36 billion in silver, the majority of it was owned by investors in exchange-traded funds. ”https://mishtalk.com/economics/indias-largest-metals-refinery-ran-out-of-silver-for-the-first-time-in-history/
https://mishtalk.com/economics/indias-largest-metals-refinery-ran-out-of-silver-for-the-first-time-in-history/
Some of the reason for the run on silver:
During the Diwali holiday season, hundreds of millions of devotees buy billions of rupees worth of jewelry to celebrate the goddess Lakshmi. Asia’s refineries usually meet this demand, which typically favors gold. But this year, many Indians turned to a different precious metal: silver.
The pivot wasn’t random. For months, India’s social media stars promoted the idea that after gold’s record rally, silver was next to soar. The hype began in April, when investment banker and content creator Sarthak Ahuja told his nearly 3 million followers that silver’s 100-to-1 price ratio to gold made it the obvious buy this year. His video went viral during Akshaya Tritiya, an auspicious day for buying gold — second only to the Dhanteras festival on Oct. 18.
The premiums for silver in India above global prices, usually no more than about a few cents an ounce, started to rise above $0.50, and then above $1, as supplies ran short.
And just as Indian demand was soaring [for the Dwali Festival], China — a key source of supply — closed for a week-long holiday. So bullion dealers turned to London.
Gail , my point was that only $ 36 billion in physical silver is underlying the hundred billions of futures , puts, options, derivatives , ETF’s based on silver . Speculation ( betting) is possible in a surplus market but it becomes a one way street in a shortage market . Possession of silver by millions of Indians does not affect the price — they are buyers only — for them PM ‘s are insurance since there is no social security net .
Orbitron will allow us all to have a desktop fusion plant in our home.
https://www.avalanchefusion.com/orbitron
Combined with our home Optimus robot+ai gardener/farmer we will have pesticide free food, mRNA free meat.
No roads needed for trips to the grocery, no transmissions lines needed for electric. Talk about degrowth!!
No needs for forced schooling, no need for hospitals. Optimus can offer any education a person wants. Optimus can offer most medical service needed. For surgery the community health center staffed by Optimus will be accessible by electric car on community gravel path.
No schools, no golden pension for teachers just local socialization centers staffed by Optimus.
so we just sit at home and do nothing….
we just do whatever we want
and—-just as a mental excercise—just what that might be?
(make it good ed, I havent got many years left)
For all our differences, I had to give you a like for this one.
well , 20 years ago i might have been occupied into blissful oblivion….
now ive been advised to take it easy and cut down…
i wouldnt want to be responsible for the death of anyone other than my own
Singing, dancing, socializing. The same things humanity has done for hundreds of thousands of years. Not to mention sex.
so lets get this straight ed…..
our food and water is delivered, and our wastes removed, as required….
while we, humankind that is, frolic and fornicate ourselves into blissful oblivion.
though i do wonder where the idea ”as we have done for hundreds of thousands of years” came from.
but let me have the titles of your history books, i think ive missed something….
Our cousins, the chimpanzees, have been observed to do “rain dances” and perform various other dance routines. They have also been caught spontaneously dancing to human music without being taught to do so.
We can’t go back hundreds of thousands of years to observe humans or protohumans dancing, singing, or socializing, and these activities have left no trace in the fossil record.
But given that our closest nonhuman contemporaries sing, dance, and socialize we can assume that our own ancestors did that.
And it’s a fair bet that they also copulated, but Ed said not to mention sex!
All watched over by machines of loving grace.
so when i walk into a biker bar, nekkid, and ask for ”your clothes, your boots and your motorcycle” i will get a friendly reception?
cant wait
Pining.
Not a big surprise. All these bankruptcies may make it more difficult for low-income workers to buy vehicles.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/another-cockroach-subprime-auto-lender-primalend-enters-bankruptcy
Another ‘Cockroach’: Subprime Auto-Lender PrimaLend Enters Bankruptcy
PrimaLend Capital Partners, which provides financing to auto dealerships that cater to subprime borrowers, filed for bankruptcy after months of negotiations with creditors following missed interest payments on its debt. . .
This follows the sudden collapse of Tricolor (subprime auto lender) and First Brands (after-market auto parts supplier) with PrimaLend listing estimated assets and liabilities below $500 million each, according to court documents it filed in the Northern District of Texas.
In a press release, PrimaLend said it was pursuing a sale of the business in bankruptcy court and would continue to fund and service loans to its own borrowers.
PrimaLend finances “buy here, pay here” auto dealerships, which serve low-income borrowers.
This article talks about why there is a boom in Chinese battery exports.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Chinas-Battery-Giants-Flood-Overseas-Markets-As-Exports-Surge-220.html
China’s Battery Giants Flood Overseas Markets As Exports Surge 220%
Falling costs is the biggest reason for the surge in U.S. battery deployments: according to financial advisory and asset management firm Lazard the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for utility-scale solar farms paired with batteries ranges from $50-$131 per megawatt hour (MWh). This makes the pair competitive with new natural gas peaking plants (LCOE of $47 to $170 per MWh) and even new coal-fired plants with LCOE of $114 per MWh.
According to Lazard’s 2025 LCOE+ report, new-build renewable energy power plants are the most competitive form of power generation on an unsubsidized basis (i.e., without tax subsidies). This is highly significant in the current era of unprecedented power demand growth in large part due to the AI boom and clean energy manufacturing.
And that’s LCOE for matured previous gen of the batt tech.
Now, the incoming gen is ~half the price BUT increased to ~25k deep discharge cycles (life-time op). Obviously there is the time lag (scale-up) factor, and we don’t know how much of the pre-existing /lifepo4/ ass.plant fleet could be easily retrofitted (+whole diff. input chain).. but reasonable estimate for LCOE in the above scenario could then drop even further by ~30-60%..
AKA: eventually we could arrive at the very unusual [pandemonium fix] of elevated-omnipresent AI + general collapse sequence..
I suppose the elevated AI could give us a uniform version of what TPTB wants the general population to know.
In theory, the AI could get rid of a lot of the need for medical specialists.
I question whether the elevated AI could help us figure out how to reprocess spent uranium fuel into usable fuel, or how to better refine Venezuelan oil and other heavy oil around the world. We have an awfully lot of it.
Heat in winter might still be a problem. Storing electricity from summer to winter in cold climates doesn’t work well now.
Update on the Nexperia matter . V/W stops production . https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/vw-halts-golf-production-wolfsburg-chip-shortage-worsens
Golf is one of VW’s most popular models, so stopping production of it is significant.
Quoted explanation:
The reason for the production suspension: a supply stoppage of Nexperia chips. The Nijmegen-based semiconductor manufacturer is at the center of a dispute between China and the United States. Under pressure from the US government, the Dutch government took control of Nexperia; in response, Beijing banned the export of Nexperia chips from the People’s Republic.
Nexperia also produces in Europe, but the majority of its chips come from China. VW apparently has no alternative at the moment. Semiconductors from other manufacturers would first have to be tested and certified, company sources said.
The chip crisis could affect not only VW but also the entire automotive industry and even other sectors. Spokespersons for BMW, Mercedes, and Daimler emphasized that the situation is being analyzed. Production at the companies is currently still running.
”Nexperia notified its Japanese automotive customers that it may no longer be able to guarantee supply, triggering renewed concern about upheaval at the Dutch chipmaker snarling global supply chains.
The Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association said on Thursday that auto parts makers received the warning about supply from Nexperia, and its members are now working to mitigate any disruption. Nexperia provides a key component and any shortages would have repercussions for Japanese automakers, JAMA said. ”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-23/nexperia-warns-japanese-automakers-supply-no-longer-guaranteed
Alex Krainer writes:
If Maduro was offering what the Trump administration wanted, and they could have had it without a fight, then why was that offer declined? In general, resources can always be obtained through trade. For the regional behemoth like the United States, they would always be able to negotiate guaranteed long-term contracts on very favorable terms, so Venezuela’s riches could flow to the U.S. markets even without Maria Corina Machado and still, the “American companies would profit greatly.”
It’s all about bank collateral
So then, how is Maduro a problem, and Machado the solution? As always, the key element in the geopolitical equation isn’t the resources as such, but resources as collateral. With political control over Caracas, Venezuelan resources would become the collateral of U.S. and other Western banks. Their clients – companies like BP, Shell, Exxon Mobil and even the Venezuelan state itself – would be able to obtain credit secured with Venezuelan oil, gold and other resources. In this way, Venezuela’s natural resource wealth magically turns into profit-generating assets on the balance sheets of banks like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and others.
This relationship highlights the driving incentive behind imperialism and colonial wars over centuries, whether we are talking about Venezuela, Libya, Syria, Ukraine, Russia, India, Congo, or any other resource rich nation. It may be hard to imagine that the fine, affluent gentlemen in expensive suits sitting in corner offices in New York or London could be the ultimate butchers of humanity, but they are the only group in society that have the motive, the means and the opportunity under their control.
https://alexkrainer.substack.com/p/the-price-of-venezuelas-democracy
That is an interesting point. What countries want is more collateral to borrow against. I hadn’t thought of it that way, but it makes sense. With more debt, there is funding for “development” in these acquired areas.
The only catch I would point out is that it is necessary to get reasonable quantity of good quality oil out at low cost, for this plan to work. Chevron has been working at this as a contractor. Without oil, Venezuela is not a very useful additional territory.
Based on past estimates, I think of the breakeven oil price needed for Venezuela as $220 per barrel, including taxes. This doesn’t work well with $57 oil.
It isn’t “good collateral” in the form of raw materials that constrains bank lending, but rather ability to pay / creditworthiness. The raw materials are only important if they can’t be sourced from elsewhere and transformed profitably, but they don’t have to be “owned” by the credit issuer. For example, one might historically have issued loans to any of the various Asian export-driven nations that are resource-poor, but productive. Krainer seems to be getting out too far over his skis, perhaps driven by a need to attract attention for monetization.
Agree with you ivan.Krainer is a flat earth style lunatic. His flat earth style narrative on the GFC is all I need to know about his analytic abilities:
“To appreciate just how big an incentive this could be, back in April I wrote about the case of Alberta’s 175 billion barrels of proven oil reserves which, once they came under control of Rockefeller interests in New York in early 2000s, provided $9 trillion in new collateral (see the article and video linked below). The bulk of that collateral ended up fuelling the $5 trillion mortgage bubble which then burst in 2007/8.
After the bailout, the banks walked away with at least $16 trillion in profits, which works out to more than $42,000 per man woman and child living in the United States. That business model far eclipses oil trade, military industrial complex and all other industries. It truly is the business to kill for”
Welcome to krainer’s turn of the century, one trick pony, grade-school illuminati primitivism. As if finance capitalism in 2025 can’t collateralize whatever it wants at that level. That’s what the Dallas Fed’s suspension of marking to market value of fracking assets was all about, because every time the barrel price goes below $70 or whatever the collateral is trash. Necessity is the mother of invention, and the shell game is the last resort of the 5th Avenue street hustler who is all out of $20 rolexes but he does have three peas in pocket and some Dixie cups he got from the bank lobby across the street.
Gail’s repeated observation of the high cost of Venezuelan extraction is all you need to know that a full privatization of Venezuela’s sovereign mineral rights doesn’t help anything. In fact privatization would only make the oil more unaffordable, because the whole problem right now is the collapse of capitalism. There is no doubling down lon capitalism eft to do .
When I say that we are in the Age of Gaslighting right now, I mean that deadly seriously even though the context is usually humorous. All misdirection plays are gaslighting. We all know that the collapse of capitalism will result in simplified commodities based trading markets and straight up international barter. The Maduro offer to Trump, which was confirmed as having happened by Venezuelan officials, is the future of business.
The Hand is running MAGA off a cliff just like Biden ran the Dems off a cliff. Again, whenever it looks like we’re steamrolling towards something insane, we’re actually being herded towards something sane a little further down the road. Let us not be sheep.
Just piggybacking on the Venezuelan angle.
The BBC ran a story few days ago, that Lula (Brazil) is now opening exploratory drilling campaign north of mouth for the Amazon. Even if placed ~onshore it’s most likely linked to that very largish sea shelf stretching up northwards to Fr. Guiana (and Equatorial beyond).. i.e. assuming this stuff could be fully cooked to higher grade already (by nature)..
They added that Exxon_mob & boyz are also already in the govs waiting line with their licensing for similar test drilling but more closely placed in the Amazonian proper if I understand it correctly..
Blending in the South America here we come?
“The Maduro offer to Trump, which was confirmed as having happened by Venezuelan officials”
Which Venezuelan officials confirmed this?
I’m sure the people of Venezuela would be interested in those names.
No names, no happen.
I believe it was Machado and Guaido. Ahem.
Thanks for calling me on that Fitz I was sure that I saw last week that the finance minister or someone made a very accommodating statement that I considered tantamount. But I cannot find it so must be wrong. I retract that statement.
I saw that in 2024 47% of all Venezuelan transactions under $10,000 we’re in USD stablecoins. Crazy. Some banks are selling them too now. And the state oil company was using them until the US forced a ban on it. Current annual inflation is around 250%.
Correct, a long term profitable contract is also collateral for a loan. The bank doesn’t need the borrower to have direct ownership of the underlying resources. A long term drilling/mining contract from the owner serves almost as well. Direct ownership would permit collateralization of unused reserves, so it’s better than a contract that has has an end date short of the projected end date of using all the reserves, but a long-term contract with renewal rights serves nearly as well.
Oil settles higher as investors focus on supply signals
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-declines-oversupply-fears-2025-10-21/
IEA is forecasting a glut, and oil prices as low as $52 per barrel by the end of 2026. But for now, the price is higher than yesterday.
“Economy
India to cut Russian oil purchases, U.S. to slash tariffs as they near trade deal: Indian media report
Published Wed, Oct 22 202512:58 AM EDT”?
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/22/india-us-trade-tariff-cuts-reduced-russian-oil-purchases.html
“The most anticipated oil supply glut in history”™️ watch part 2: onshore inventories have actually fallen by 23MM Bbls so far this month while “oil on water” has risen. Will they make it to onshore visible hubs, or is the offshore surge explained by other less-bearish factors?
https://x.com/ericnuttall/status/1980633558742868372/photo/1
Sorry , only a preview . I do not get this glut scenario when the data is contrary .
https://anasalhajjieoa.substack.com/p/the-hype-of-oil-on-water?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1222998&post_id=176714438&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=26quge&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
China seems to be trying to keeping oil prices from falling further. This is a little strange, but to keep oil coming out, there needs to be adequate demand. That can come from countries (like China) stockpiling oil while oil prices are low. Trump is also buying a little bit to refill the SPR.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-buy-tiny-1-million-barrels-spr-china-unleashes-record-oil-stockpiling-spree
Trump To Buy Tiny 1 Million Barrels For SPR As China Unleashes Record Oil Stockpiling Spree
Badly beating down oil jumped, if only briefly, on a Bloomberg report that the Trump administration plans to buy 1 million barrels for the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, taking advantage of low oil prices to begin filing the depleted stockpile.
The Energy Department intends to announce Tuesday that it’s seeking oil for delivery in December and January, using a portion of the $171 million from President Donald Trump’s signature tax and spending law that provided for crude purchases, according to an agency official. . .
Beijing’s reserve-building – S&P Global Commodity Insight last month estimated China had stockpiled an average of 530,000 barrels per day thus far in 2025 – is soaking up surplus global supply and supporting prices under pressure as the OPEC+ producers group winds down production cuts. Traders and consultancies say they expect the stockpiling, fuelled by prices recently below $70 per barrel, to continue at least through the first quarter of 2026.
The world economy is not doing very well, if it cannot support the current prices without help from Chinese stockpiling of oil.
Mysteriously exploding refineries around the world also raise individual refinery demand by other means, as Steve Ludlum would say.. Refineries are volume enterprises. Intelligent, managed catabolic collapse.
Good point. Someone else will refine the oil. The closest buyers will be elsewhere.
Gail , refineries have been shutting down as the business is not so profitable anymore . In Germany refineries are in trouble because they were geared for the Russian blends and now sanctioned . There is no extra refining capacity worldwide . Difficult to push the surplus oil .
Good points!
”Trump To Buy Tiny 1 Million Barrels For SPR As China Unleashes Record Oil Stockpiling Spree ” is equivalent to ” Pissing in the pool to make it salty ” .😂
Agreed!
At the degrowth conference
Ivan Idso- What is Degrowth, Why we need it, and What it looks like
How about How Soon Is Now?, says the Hand.
“I am the son and the heir
Of a shyness that is criminally vulgar
I am the son and heir
Of nothing in particular
You, shut your mouth, how can you say
I go about things the wrong way?
I am human and I need to be loved
Just like everybody else does
I am the son and the heir
Of a shyness that is criminally vulgar
I am the son and heir
Of nothing in particular
You, shut your mouth, how can you say
I go about things the wrong way?
I am human and I need to be loved
Just like everybody else does
There’s a club if you’d like to go
You could meet somebody who really loves you
So you go and you stand on your own
And you leave on your own
And you go home, and you cry, and you want to die
When you say it’s gonna happen now
Well, when exactly do you mean?
See, I’ve already waited too long
And all my hope is gone
You, shut your mouth, how can you say
I go about things the wrong way?
I am human and I need to be loved
Just like everybody else does”
Johnny Marr version:
https://youtu.be/mY8eKQFyRJk?si=HLZVMJwA7xsVIcKG
Ivan is my main contact.
Is the reason that gold is climbing and silver etc .. because the elites believe that we are heading for a crash?
the dollar is the prime exchange currency in the world at this time
the usa is in a hands of a lunatic at this time
that leaves gold, as the main haven for liquid capital at this time.
the other term for it is panic
Yep, depleting resources did not panic people, but the orange fool did. They need to see the images to start panicking. I am waiting for the movie to come out because I am dislexic and cannot read the book with the aforementioned figures. Indeed gold started to go up in late 2022, when it was alrady clear there would be a trump II.
Sorry, that’s incorrect.
The price-makers (as in demand forced) are not the proverbial mom & pop savers but rather large institutional investors and govs. They bought in volume into increasing mega trend, the dollar is no longer dominant transfer mechanism, see CHN and her biz “allied”-partners. It already became a mere co-vehicle a legacy instrument in multi – vectored space.
Although, your second comment is very prescient. People [en masse] will start rioting only into empty / closed shops, shut down places of employment, ..etc.. not second sooner..
who was it who said—
we are 9 meals way from chaos
Nobody I’ve heard of has ever said that, although I’m sure many people have done so.
You are the first person I’ve seen mention it.
However, the American investigative journalist, lawyer, novelist, editor, and short story writer Alfred Henry Lewis (1855-1914) wrote in a March 1906 issue of Cosmopolitan Magazine, “There are only nine meals between mankind and anarchy.”
Also, the English writer Neil Gaiman wrote in his 1990 novel Good Omens: The Nice and Accurate Prophecies of Agnes Nutter, Witch, “It has been said that civilization is twenty-four hours and two meals away from barbarism.”
Sorry that’s incorrect. 😁
The dollar is still the dominant transfer mechanism.
Your mind is going to be blown when gold gets sold in order to buy USD stablecoins in order to buy oil. That’s why China’s buying all the gold in the first place – so it can buy USD stablecoins LOL. That might just be a joke or it might not be. Might be funny or might not be. But the US might end up with a lot of worthless gold at the end of the shell game.
Allow for an edu-tangential.
Not sure why – but I’ve always found it a bit gross when some of the Gulfies guyz sitting next to a westerner at the presser or int conference are wearing bare foot sandals, the cameras are often somewhat enlarging it. Obviously, it’s just my irrational prejudice as their foot manicure per single day must roughly equal all my spending for three decades in a row, but nevertheless..
So China is buying gold so it can buy stablecoins, which are created by using dollars to purchase U.S. Treasuries to back the stablecoins , i.e., to further support the U.S. government and its war mongering and destructive ways? I find this hard to believe. You have some support for this theory?
Heck yeah I’m always up for an edu-tangential and I guess I did learn something about you and the news producers’ opposing proclivities thanks! You have to admit that hairy toes on business teevee are a nice naturalistic touch by the Simulator. IT didn’t have to do that given that there’s no cost to us knowing reality is actually a simulation because our knowing was just written into the simulation anyway, but it is nice touch all the same so that those that don’t know can appreciate that the seamless, ancient tradition of sandal wearing from more than 7000 years ago is clearly never gonna die. You know what they say, “Wherever there’s sand…”
tags for circumstantial evidence I refer you to my oeuvre lol. The future isn’t evidence-based. It’s all circumstantial. Think deflation of the dollar and hyperinflation of the rouble and the yuan. Think post-geopolitical theater and post- history. Think flight to safety and Tethered MMT; think re-dollarization.
Are the Chinese buying gold right now with the plan to purchase digital Lincoln greenbacks? Of course not! But they will sell their hoarded barbarous relic for USDT in order to get their hands on Russian oil if Russia needs USDT in order to produce the oil. The physical gold ain’t even worth anything to anybody. The US might not even bother having it shipped over. What’s the point? It’s just a shell game at this point. Take the crown jewels from the Louvre. Who cares? Drop the crown in the street. It doesn’t matter! Just keep going!
Phase 2 comin’ atcha. Real or not real? Joke or not joke?
Now, when trivial geopolitics and pressing energy puzzles are all solved and moved across the table – lets refocus again on the key topic, shall we..?
You nicely invoked the biz TV channel addon filter applied on [the sandal thing] by the Simulator.
Now, explain to me the paradox, when the newly installed [former] head chopper in Syria, decided sporting fine gentleman’s outfit, even recently hugging in the Vlad himself ?
For one thing, the outfit was most likely a generous personal gift from the Erdo-Sultan of Istanbul, prepared by the finest craftsmen now dwelling inside the former capital of the Eastern Roman Empire we lost for ever because of silly early era christian denomination quarrels..
Who the hell writes these “circumstantial” soap opera scripts?
ver AI: #ffo4jkd3jkje99069df4l932lk-350..
Turkey supplies the majority of Israel oil trough ceyhan pipeline , that oil comes from his cousin Big nose Aliyev from Mossadbaijan.
He is no sultan , he is a donmeh from Georgia Whit an army of whahabi retards that do the Elders bidding .
When the first iran missile strike in april 2024 , Turkey TV pundits said that they needed to disturb Iran and Erdogan said that Iran was trying to recronstruct the persian empire and that they not gonna let them , later the coordinated al Nusra takeover of Syria happened and the Israel attacks using turkey and Azerbaijan airspace with the smugling of agents Who killed the scientists and generals also coming from the nortthern borders ….
The ultra ” jihadists ” already have abandoned the Golan claims and let Israel occupy the druze areas in the south , in the future the most probable that Will happen is that these stooges Will be disposed off and Israel Will expand even more , in the mentime they are busy killing the alawites etc , also US bases in the east Will be untocheable and they Will provide another layer of Air defence for Israel .
Regarding the Al Nusra suit, they’ve all been wearing suits for high level meetings since the 80s. I own the acreage that I own because my dead dad moved us out to Cyprus when I was 2 years old in order to start up a business as a European menswear agent selling suits and socks and underwear to Arabs. Even the Gulf guys like MbS wear suits when abroad.
Thanks guys filling in the details and context.
In terms of [!_. acreage ._!] isn’t it marvelous there is always an important individual or family back story how it came to be..?
Hominids of very strange grand-background often have to cooperate to unravel the great secrets of the game.
It took the unlikely cooperation of a pulp NY writer; Italian producer (deLaurentis), southern Baltica Tatar (Bronson), genuine #1nation Oklahoma native (Sampson), bohemian babe (Novak), and British master composer (Barry)..
to reveal the true mystique of the 1870s as the great old west in its layer of pristine nature was phasing out.. for ever..
A movie intended as a mere cheesy one screening blockbuster turned “accidentally” into serious hidden psycho – driller for the planet dwelling re-searchers out there..
The White Buffalo 1977
(the concluding few dozens secs)
ps avoid premature spoilage – don’t watch the YT bad quality copies out there first. .
ps2 that’s why Bronson has been revered in Japan, Korea and other national remnants out there.. while otherwise generally long time ago forgotten as mere action-flick chap in the US..
Thanks for that movie recommendation. The acreage back story is marvelous and mundane. Dad’s second wife left him and was threatening divorce so he needed to reduce his exposure lol and I just happened to be about to disappear into the Collapse wilds forever and he was excited that I finally had some motivation in my life after 35 years. We were always very close and he was going to come retire here with me and apply for citizenship but then she must have cottoned to his scheme and took him back after he bought the home acreage and I guess I made out like a bandit. She did too with the Lloyd’s life insurance policy. I sold the very nice timber and used the money to buy 30 more steep acres for $2800/ac. Moral of the story: always ask around to see who is behind on their property taxes and you might get lucky.
Great personal story of yours, sorry it felt as I was pressing you to answer it, the question mark was meant just in general sense..
Taken your acreage advise seriously, thinking alongside similar lines for some time already about possible enlargement in one spec. direction should the early turbulent times offer such opportunity, yet in my locale we tend to deal with way smaller lot sizes ..lol..
–
In addition to that Charles Bronson x Will Sampson movie, there is also along broadly similar lines another one from the same decade.
It also explores the nativist character vs civilization/techno-sphere, based on true accounts, directed by Kurosawa (JAP) about Czarist time survey expedition <1910 into their own wild area "PCFNW" version (PCFNE?) ..
Actually, this movie is recommendable just on YT as the reviewers claim the original film stock archive was likely suboptimal-compromised, so it can't be much digitally improved on..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFaL03SKEzE
why/how info:
https://trailersfromhell.com/dersu-uzala/
You didn’t press it was a rhetorical question. I’m just an open book prone to TMI.
Nice, Kurosawa, saved that one on my yootoob account thanks.
Well, now I had to press a bit, by “+30 more steep acres” that’s a jargon or does it literally mean slope, gradient, hilly terrain in your case?
It’s kind of obvious, yet sort of hidden and expensive lesson in perma_C_ircles, that this is the best avenue for individuals ever touching ~serious [.Y..!.!._.. acreage.._.!.!..Y.]
Yet, the on-site consideration are specific and non trivial, chiefly: allowing only correct amount of rainfall on the short run terraces/keylines on the hill, also protection against higher risk of storm-bolts near the summit dwelling, .. snow management, road access, ..
But the +positive aspects gained are just too many to enumerate here!
bhh look at you talking about keylining! Yes I meant steep slopes up in the hills. Steep slopes in a high rainfall climate pretty much always means that the structural soil erosion under natural law has already taken place long ago: during soil saturation events the fine clay particles and even some silt particles go colloidal and float to the surface and run-off and resettle in the bottomlands like so many low wage illegal immigrants, where the flatland alluvial farmers take in the profits. Leaving the hills in sandy soil with excellent drainage. You ever seen a puddle in the desert? Me neither. The water just percolates on through and increase the flow of my year-round creek that runs through the middle of the property. Of course that means that organic matter requirements are higher since the microbes have a lot harder time breaking down the big ass sand particles.
The cross-slope sheep and goats trails are natural keylinings/mini terraces, and together with the vertical slope trails create a bit of net-and-pan action. Net-and-pan plantings we’re obviously inspired by goats in hills bedding down under brush and small trees for shade, and goats always scratch up their beds before bedding down which creates a bowl. The cat roads on the property acts as formal terracing. The steeper the particular slope the less thickly the grass generally grows compared to the shallower slopes and therefore the less time the animals spend on those slopes, also because they have to expend more energy traversing them. So those slopes receive less grazing pressure which moderates the natural disadvantage of the grade. Everything intelligently self-organizes when given the chance. And that’s all there is to it. No imagined demons, nothing like that.
Oh thanks – I didn’t expect that, assumed you meant acquired sort of pristine sloped woody area “to develop”. But your description fits either taking over legacy mountain style pastoral-ism of the area or you are present there long enough already to perform gradually these task with your own animals..
Frankly, I’m now at the age junction – I’m not planing on taking up ~large ruminants such sheep in numbers and especially into challenging terrain (option).. yes I know the pros are able keep on doing it still in their 80-90s lol.
The fruit brushes and even some head started trees finally just started (delay from overdoing initial land profile ~improvements ?) some serious action after 5-7yrs.. and the grass patches are enough for the dinosaur tractors and alike small factor set up only. To add acreage for mixed left alone +nuts or other ideas eventually would be awesome.. I like the “dependable-regular” bumper crop effect around ~3yrs cycle for them.. now with the temp increases..
That’s exciting about your harvests coming on. Hopefully you’re able to pick up some more ground for the nuts project. The steeper property was in mixed forestland and I had the Doug Fir timber commercially logged right away, at 34 years, leaving bigleaf maple as the dominant remainder which I’ve been thinning out for coppicewood regrowth, selling firewood. So now it’s mixed pasture. Silvopasture. And southern facing!
I’ve not seen much coppicing in practice (for trees) in my life, however, a bit more distant neighbor few yrs ago used pollarding for his small alley of linded (Tilia) near his gate. Initially, I thought what an waste of effort for not much presentable or useful trees (of not so healthy habitus) and so on..
To my big surprise, immediately next season, the re-growth was so massive and [regular] on its own (no adjusting), and in +two years it was completely new kind of tree with massive dense and regularly shaped crown, like 3x improvement in density or more. And then came the massively boosted effect for pollinators (going crazy for that place)..
Per operator it was mostly sheer luck in timing (upper limit for age of tree) and likely no major mistakes when cutting the branches – yet obviously the nature itself brought it all together at excellent most optimal form.
Glad you got to bear witness to the explosive power and rejuvenating effects of hardwood coppicing/pollarding. And yes they bush-out evenly from the stump. When I coppiced that huge first round of trees I hadn’t fenced-in that ground yet and so they were out of reach of the goats by the time the fencing was up. They grew thirty feet in four years. I just finished pollarding another batch of trees this fall.
Sorry bhh I’ve opened the door again I thought you were talking about being a simulation avatar kind of humanoid. Glad to hear that you’re an earthling. Please continue to be yourself friend.
Gold and silver seem to be where the debt bubble is currently finding its outlet, among other areas.
It is more than elites buying them.
said metals are always frantically climbing.. as the last asset class.. just to match the pre-ongoing (baked in) over-all inflation and “lost” investment opportunity elsewhere..
as the bigboyz (old & newcomers) already made (multiplied) their fortunes in “the schemes of the day” per given time-frame, e.g. every ~decade there is a theme in which “investors” could easily make bets while reaping x100 x1000 x1000 0000 .. and similar silly astronomic high gains..
illustratively taken just from the recent stages: bitcoin / fiction-coins, alt. oilz, govs over-debtness appetite, new tech gizmos, war profiteering, ..
hence metals are just tiny part of their assets portfolio, which is chiefly oriented as rent-seeking (quasi mining operation) from the over-all economy in which the lesser – day job active people being forced participating to merely survive..
that’s what goes on for at least past ~4k yrs, and it’s generally advisable to teach this your kids at very young age should you wish them to participate “successfully” in this charade ; and or it’s generally advisable NOT to teach this your kids at very young age (or ever) should you wish them to participate in some rather more meaningful exploits of life on this spinning rock..
Where is the next bubble going to be? Maybe I can ride that one!
As you well know this world’s utmost (public) PO forum is not the proper venue for such activity 🙂
Unlike the wishes of some delusionists here, that is where the world is going to.
They do not really believe the future bs they are promoting; while fools flock to swallow their bs, they stack PMs and reinforce their bunkers.
Yup, when Kulm is right it must be acknowledged.
Realistically and sadly though, there is also the delusionist side on the opposite end of the spectrum, we could call it for now “Regen Ag Taliban” which takes in pain even the (in) possibility for them that there is a winding route across and beyond the collapse threshold, rendering eventually their efforts useless (in the great scheme of things) .
What difference, at this point in time, does it matter?
Are we all going to confront the same future?
Or will our future differ depending on our degree of realism or delusion?
Or will it depend on an accident of birth such as which country or where in the soclal structure we were born into?
Moreover, would our collective future be any different if we could all embrace the same vein of realism or the same delusions?
In this game of musical chairs, or of a sinking shop, does it make sense to fight over the remaining chairs, or lifeboats, or should we relax, surrender, and accept our fate?
Well put indeed.
Frankly, as an “outlier sect” over here in relation to the outside world majority of non imminent transformation (“PO”) threat perceiving public, we are debating and crossing swords about the pin point of the proverbial needle..
Indeed I just relaxed mightily, overdosing on fractional gallon of sour cherries (edible not liquored), that’s the preferred kind of posture of wize adult men ahead of incoming ugly impact.
The elites are gonna bring us back into the gold standard so gold and silver are going to skyrocket it’s as simple as that except it will back crypto
Degrowth become popular?
The video talks about DeGrowth’s planned population reduction. Each family can have one child. If they want more than one, they need to apply for permission, showing that their income is high enough. They also have to pay higher taxes. To get permission to have three children, it is necessary to have even higher income, and to pay higher taxes.
This approach is being tried out in Taiwan, where there would seem to be absolutely no need for it. The average births per mother is already down at 1.
Everything I can see is the place that this is needed is in the poor countries of the world.
They also make the distinction between warm bodies versus tax payers. They feel a society needs tax payers not so much welfare takers.
I listened to a little more. The problem is that in Advanced Countries, it is the immigrants having disproportionately more children (although they don’t put it that way). They want them to reduce their birth rate. The birth rate of the high income people is already very low. Their birth rate could be higher, rather than lower. But they cannot come out and say this.
Immigrants are not going to reduce having less children when the welfare state will pay for more puppies/children.
Now Trump says probably will not meet Xi . I can say there will be no Putin /Trump meeting in Budapest as speculated .The emperor has no clothes.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-dumped-trump-china-comments
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/10/eu-nato-retreats-from-ukraine-is-winning-to-begging-for-a-ceasefire.html
Maladjusted chicks should not beg. They are uniquely unsuited for it.
Another story about Wikipedia’s bias:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/he-co-founded-wikipedia-now-he-says-site-needs-radical-change
Wikipedia, a popular online encyclopedia millions of people treat as an authoritative source of information, is systemically biased against conservative, religious, and other points of view, according to the site’s co-founder, Larry Sanger. . .
“You simply may not cite as sources of Wikipedia articles anything that has been branded as right wing,” he said. “I don’t think that The Epoch Times, for example, is particularly right wing, but it is colored red [not considered a reliable source for Wikipedia] on this list.”
Information from some “green” sources is taken as fact and repeated without attribution, Sanger said. . .
One problem is the platform’s policy of preferring secondary sources over primary or original sources. This is contrary to the approach of journalists and higher education institutions, who favor original sources, such as direct quotes from public figures, documents written by historical figures, and original research.
Wikipedia, by contrast, favors sources that have already interpreted original sources, such as magazines and newspapers.
“As a former academic, I find that to be absurd,” Sanger said.
The question is, “Will the LNG shipped through the proposed pipeline be too high-priced?” I am also sure that the pipeline and the LNG will not be available soon.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Alaskas-44-Billion-LNG-Project-Nears-Key-Milestone-as-Pipeline-Study-Wraps-Up.html
It ‘ s the grid — dear Watson .
https://www.geo.tv/latest/629746-coordinated-sabotage-explosions-at-two-key-european-refineries-raise-concerns
Explosions at refineries of Hungary and Slovakia, the countries that aren’t toeing EU/NATO line. There are no rules anymore.
Excuse me, Hungary and Romania
amazing.
Romania has been complying quite well.
Yes but it was a Russian (Lukoil) refinery in Romania.
According to the article:
The explosions coincided with a pivotal EU move, occurring on the same day that EU energy ministers backed a proposal to phase out Russian energy imports by 2028.
This plan grants limited exemptions to landlocked nations like Hungary and Slovakia.
The events occur against the backdrop of a secret “war on energy.”
A “war on energy” is a euphemism for “energy is leaving us.” We can’t afford it anymore. The refineries hit were in Hungary and Romania, probably by some other NATO members.
Please watch . Very good information on the gas situation in the EU . https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=87qlO_ce678
The reason that gas storage is only 76% full this year, (rather than close to 100% full as in previous years) is because of Germany’s policy of not buying either Russian pipeline natural gas or Russian LNG. Instead, it plans to buy more LNG from the US and other LNG exporters. The prices with this approach are much higher and more volatile.
With the rates very high and volatile, the secondary impact of this policy is the problem that the owner of the natural gas storage system in Germany is not making enough profit on the margin between the buying price and the selling price of the natural gas. Without this profit, it cannot keep the storage space open. So, it is closing the storage space.
Energy-intensive businesses in Europe are already closing. More of them will be closing. This will help keep the lights on this winter, but industry and jobs are leaving.
If we hadn’t chosen to fail, the solution to the energy crisis would likely have looked a lot like this.
Cesare Marchetti was an Italian physicist who proposed 10-20 giant nuclear power plants on energy-island atolls – ring-shaped reefs enclosing a lagoon. On the lagoon floats a giant nuclear power plant, hundreds of gigawatts in scale, producing hydrogen from seawater.
Marchetti noticed that the ratio of carbon to hydrogen moved in one direction. Coal (2 C for every 1 H), to oil (1 C for every 1 H) to natural gas (1 C for every 4 H). We were destined for an energy future of pure hydrogen.
Energy production benefits from economies of scale. The bigger the power plant, the cheaper the kWh. Hot water can be sent about 10 km economically, electricity about 100 km (this was the 70’s, remember), and natural gas about 1,000 km. A plant producing natural gas can avail of these economies of scale, being 2 orders of magnitude larger than one producing hot water. Marchetti predicted a worldwide natural gas network would develop – which could later be repurposed for hydrogen.
Human populations tend towards concentration over time. Generating energy in extremely dense form greatly reduces the land required to sustain these cities. Hay, wood, coal, wind turbines and solar panels would require vast swathes.
These enormous nuclear plants – acting effectively as giant artificial oil fields – produce hydrogen shipped to shore in supertankers. The hydrogen is piped on land to where it is used for electricity, transportation or heat. By producing hydrogen instead of electricity, the nuclear electricity storage problem is solved.
Cooling water is drawn from deep ocean depths where it is cold, and discharged near the surface, minimising thermal plumes and ecological disturbance. This cooling seawater contains uranium which is extracted as the water passes through the heat exchangers, and turned into nuclear fuel at a rate 10 times the fuel requirement of the plant.
Later these plants are upgraded to breeder reactors – extending the theoretical lifespan of the energy system to the end of Planet Earth’s lifespan, when the Sun expands and engulfs it whole.
The nuclear waste, concentrated above 30%, is encased and dropped down into boreholes, the decay heat slowly melting the basalt, the payload sinking ever deeper over time into the safety of Earth’s mantle.
Later he refined the idea, realising that fuel contains disorder (entropy) and order (negentropy). When a fuel is burned, about 70% – the disorder – ends as waste heat, creating heat islands in cities. Instead, we should transport the order, not the energy, by liquefying air. This is done on floating structures offshore, powered by the nuclear islands. Liquefying air releases the waste heat harmlessly offshore. The liquid air is piped to the cities where it is used to move pistons and produce electricity with no heat emitted. We now have an energy system with no emissions, millennia of fuel, and no waste heat.
Three billion years ago, the new machinery of chlorophyll appeared and started splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen. The hydrogen powered the biosphere. Three billion years later the same process is repeated, powered by nuclear energy.
This does not solve ecological overshoot. But if global civilisation had exhibited the cooperation and coordination to evolve the energy system to such a utopian state, it would have been wise enough to devise a coordinated strategy to address ecological overshoot too.
Some of Cesare Marchetti’s papers:
https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/222/1/RR-75-038.pdf
https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/3592/1/RR-93-18.pdf
marchetti, as with most people—missed the point.
genereating power is only half the problem….
the other half is using that power to create objects we can use, for general living and to buy and sell to each other.
thats what our ”economy” is…—there are no meaningful exceptions.
it is not building bigger and bigger power plants…
if products cannot be produced at an affordable price for the majority of people, then no matter how much energy you produce, it will simply be wasted into nothing.
Products can be built at an affordable price with cheap energy. Bigger plants generate cheaper energy. In this parallel universe I imagine, we’d also have devised ways to puncture overshoot before it became a runaway train. Buying and selling each other cheap products – built for recyclability and longevity – without leading to ruin is perfectly plausible in such a scenario.
/////In this parallel universe I imagine, we’d also have devised ways to puncture overshoot before it became a runaway train/////
wish science—wish politics—-wish economics—
…..the wage you have now, is a construct of the economic system that exists now…..
by all means build products for half the cost, but that would halve your wages. ( I assume you wouldnt want that?—and would expect yoour wage to stay at its current level—or higher.
)
whatever your emplyment—-you are not exempt from economic reality
This is a thought experiment based on Marchettis ideas. With uranium from seawater – which the Japanese are figuring out – and breeders, there would be thousands of years of energy. But this level of global cooperation was beyond us then and its much too late now. Still, an interesting idea.
It wasn’t just a thought experiment, you also had an unreasonable axe to grind. See the first sentence in your OP. Collapse has nothing to do with choosing to fail, but thinking that that is so has everything to do with a retrospective bargaining with it. But obviously that’s a lot better than actively bargaining with it vis a vis, say, a new battery technology that’s coming out.
“But obviously that’s a lot better than actively bargaining with it vis a vis, say, a new battery technology that’s coming out.”
Do you recall : “detour” , “prolonging” , “likely attempted” , ~at specific locale only.. etc.
I do recall. Fair enough, since collapse hasn’t happened yet. I just think that it’s quite obvious that we are at the end of the extend and pretend Everything Bubble now.
Yes, looking back at both [the lab thing] and [the war thing] just starting this very decade doesn’t sound very promising for further delays of the grand finale.. Given how certain countries (top ranking in domestic energy deficiency) ala UK, DE, .. FR, are now hastily implementing <NKorean style gov oversight is stunning.. although at the day/d short term basis it feels like easing and increasing pressure tactically to bamboozle the public.
The uranium from seawater is a non starter. It is much too expensive, but also unless you dot the entire world coastline with purification plant, locally the seawater will quickly become uranium depleted. seawater does not mix quickly. I remember a paper by Charpak and someone else (the guy mentioned by Kulm a few pages back, or perhaps it was the last post) and it looked ridiculous then. now we are fully in resource depletion.
If the Chinese do not do it, with their amazing and unmatched mineral purification tech, why should you even consider it? you live in a technologically backward country. If you are in the US, you also have a rotten academia.
oh—nearly forgot
whatever you recycle, you get less usuable energy out than you put in
With ubiquitous energy, that wasn’t a problem. The Global Energy Cooperation Project ushered in a new era of international coordination on overshoot and the institution of a global 2.1 fertility rate cap. Products were bought and sold and the sum was the economy, but nobody bothered counting. Usury was banned. Sometimes the economy was bigger, sometimes smaller. Energy was so cheap that residential electricity was free, forming a social welfare net. All children were taught to grow good. Over time, nuclear fusion plants replaced the fission plants.
youre new to ofw mark
but already you are an expert BS artist
you learn fast
Don’t mind Norman, Mark. His bark’s worse than his bite.
His standard MO is to lob insults at anyone who disagrees with or talks back to him. Although despite that, he deems himself the soul of politeness because he doesn’t use cuss words!
He doesn’t go in for thought experiments or admit the possibility of “parallel worlds” existing. By some accounts, he hasn’t allowed a new idea to enter his head since before the millennium.
On the other hand, you are fortunate that you didn’t turn up here when our former guard dog Fast Eddy was in patrolling the front gate. He would have yelped that you are a Delusistani. That’s code for people who don’t think we are necessarily all doomed.
I don’t know why “the folks in charge” gave up on developing nuclear power. I have a hunch that they want to get the depopulation thing over with first, and when we are down to a billion or less humans on Earth, new and improved forms of nuclear power will be brought on tap, together with space-based solar, zero-point energy, and possibly warp drive engines using dilithium crystals!
What these doomers fail to appreciate is that humans are ingenious, problems are made to be overcome and necessity is the mother of invention, so if we need something badly enough we will find a way to get it. Also, human society runs on deception and duplicity, so the people in charge are never going to tell the rest of us what the real problems and solutions are and what’s really going on.
We don’t have sufficient uranium, or upgrading capability, at this point either.
Mark, thanks for the article, it’s always interesting to re-visit such retrospective thinking ideas. As physicist was Marchetti likely within the general realm of possible, but the little “engineering details” were not available at his time (and perhaps appeared easy to overcome), as and even today are impossible to achieve at scale. For one thing, the hydrogen pipelines, tons of R&D went into various methods how to contain hydrogen at scale for various storage and shipping purposed and it’s still impossible at necessary scale and sound costs (meant replacing global energy flows).
On the breeder thing, yes that has been achieved already, RU-CHN have them on industrial scale, not lab or limited intro sized projects. And yet again, they apparently need whole fleet of them to make economic sense, which time has perhaps came as the decommissioned missile tips have been largely reprocessed to fuel again in recent +20yrs.., and the costs of mining fresh ore increased via general inflation (and depletion forcing).
Again, the world is likely turning elsewhere into more distributed patchwork of generation since the issue of cost effective and long operational cycle-life time of batteries has been ~solved. As mentioned before [Sodium ion] batts go into mass production now in Q4, and that’s at ~45% cost reduction and min 3-6x cycle life boost vs. lithium-phosphates.. and that’s good enough.. to “delete” large if not most part of the ~frivolous gasoline-diesel consumption..
20/20 hindsight is perfect . In my homeland is a saying ” If my ancestors and their offspring were alive we would have an army ” . We are planting a tree today when it should have been planted one ages ago . No use crying over spilled milk . Just look at the euphoria at what is being done today when it should have been 20 years ago . Reante and FE have got the immediate problem correctly which is the spent nuclear fuel rods .
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/rare-earths-stocks-soar-after-mega-us-australia-minerals-deal-slash-dependence-china
”frivolous gasoline-diesel consumption..”
What is frivolous ? Mining , trucking or you and me going to a job 60 kms one way so that there is bread on the table ?
” Again, the world is likely turning elsewhere into more distributed patchwork of generation since the issue of cost effective and long operational cycle-life time of batteries has been ~solved. As mentioned before [Sodium ion] batts go into mass production now in Q4, and that’s at ~45% cost reduction and min 3-6x cycle life boost vs. lithium-phosphates.. and that’s good enough..”
Here is ” Sweet Dreams ” .
~Frivolous meant in the context debated over here in almost two decades numerous times already.
So, lets recap it again, the hybrid ver of passenger carz mass production has reached elevated level already. Adding to it ~25-35kWh (or larger) cost effective and long lasting battery per unit means the commuter is seldomly in need of filling up at the gas(oline-diesel) station anymore. The e-charge comes mostly from the the overnight grid overproduction and in smaller part from d/d opportunistic local PV home/office bldg setups.
Similarly, in suburb-urbanized places where possible, the install cost of partial (autonomous) trolley buses with on board traction batt is very favorable against other investment into heavy mass transit options. Yes the CHN have already the capacity to install both ground and underground highspeed train in dozens of thousands of km, good for them. Yet, in less developed societies like US, LatAmerica, Asia and even core EU, the ~slowish ground transport segment could be easily reinvigorated into this chiefly batt powered mode of operation.
Moreover, there have been advanced tests performed for larger cargo (trucks) on partial trolley and batts as well already. But again if you slash ~70-85% of the usual private, public transport, and light biz cargo diesel consumption this way, there is enough diesel left for decades for the heavy industry, mining, etc. Ships work already on oily dregs or spoily natgas..
It can be deployed easily in global fashion either in the slower pace with normal aging-replacement of the carz fleet or under accelerated (co-funded) gov-industrial programme.
Sound, easy solution at hand NOW, but is it going to be put in practice? NO! because of human nature. The above will be likely attempted – delivered only at specific hubs with ongoing – prevailing industrial might among the other mal-competing, failing societies.
”Sound, easy solution at hand NOW, but is it going to be put in practice? NO! ”
Then why make such long comments when you already know the answers ? Makes me go —- hmmmm .
Because it nicely fits the general narrative about Marchetti what should/could be – this very thread brought up to light.
Besides, lets confess I’m failed humanoid as well..
Sadly.
You’re a human. Humanoids don’t exist. And there’s life after civilization.
reante> evidently, your reason sharped brilliant intellect and nominal incline towards natural beauty is your forte; but there are other subtle dimensions of this cosmos available even to us mere earthlings to sap from occasionally as well, sorry to realize you enjoy shutting this door closed (on ~principle).
While I like some of Boy George’s Culture Club stuff, he doesn’t do this song justice.
Here’s the original Eurythmics version, which I find much easier on the ears:
bhh2gxwq86 – I agree we’ll end up with decentralised microgrids, and a very different lifestyle. On hydrogen transportation, in a universe where global civilisation came together to realise Marchetti’s dream, I’d imagine if the next 50 years had been spent on figuring out how to move hydrogen about rather than figuring out how to extract ever harder to reach oil, we’d have figured it out.
Mark, I am on board. Great idea.
I would also consider basing it on land and piping in the cold sea water and piping out the heated water.
Glad someone liked it. I assume Marchetti choose atolls, however, as they would protect against tsunamis, as well as nullify the need to transport the waste.
Of course nuclear waste needs to be buried, but only for a time. It can be retrieved for usage later.