As I will explain, the outcome that looks like losing may actually be the best path forward for the world’s remaining economies.
The fighting today is with respect to which parts of the world will get which energy resources, and at what prices. Even before the current conflict, there was a shortage of jet fuel and diesel. The only reasonable outcome I can think of is that the US will only be able to tap its own energy resources, plus those of its nearby neighbors (Figure 1). Consequently, the economy will gradually reorganize in ways that use fuels more sparingly.
The outcome outlined in Figure 1 implies that Donald Trump and the US-Israel coalition will lose the war against Iran. It appears that the physics of the situation (or perhaps the Higher Power behind the physics of the situation) has chosen the flawed personality of Donald Trump to accomplish the required result. This is a situation where what seems to be the US losing in its conflict against Iran is actually winning for the overall world economy. If oil can be used more sparingly in the future by servicing people closer to where end products are made, the available energy resources will provide greater benefit to society as a whole.
In the remainder of this article, I will try to explain the situation more fully.
[1] Background
In physics terms, an economy is a dissipative structure. In order to stay away from a dead state (collapse), it needs to “dissipate” energy of the right kinds. A human is also a dissipative structure. We dissipate food to stay away from a dead state.
From a physics point of view, fossil fuels are as essential to economies as food is to humans. Without fossil fuels, economies tend to collapse and die. With an adequate supply of easily extractable and transportable fossil fuels, economies are able to grow. However, when these fuels become less available due to the exhaustion of nearby resources, or for other reasons, economies are forced to shrink. Rising population can also be a factor because every person in the world needs food and at least minimal transportation. The war is about future standards of living in countries around the world.
An underlying problem is that the world now has too many people for the available resources, such as fresh water. One chart showing data through the end of 2023 indicates that the Middle East is home to 4,863 desalination plants, or about 42% of the world’s total. This region is acutely stressed for fresh water. The Middle East cannot grow much of its own food; it must depend on imports, which are grown and transported using oil.
Previous analyses (here and here) have shown that diesel and jet fuel supplies have been in increasingly short supply since long before the Iran War.
Critical minerals, used in electrification, are also in very short supply. In a finite world, the easy-to-extract minerals are extracted first, leaving the high-cost-to extract minerals for the future.
In today’s fossil fuel economy, oil is the largest component. Oil is usually the highest-priced of the fossil fuels because it is energy-dense and easy to transport and store. If oil supply fails, an economy is likely to collapse. Coal and natural gas are the other fossil fuels. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is natural gas that is super-chilled and shipped long-distance by boat. Similarly to oil, its price is under pressure today.
[2] The world’s fossil fuel economy already seems to be at a turning point in its economic cycle.
It is well known that economies exhibit cyclical behavior. Researchers Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov analyzed eight economies that collapsed and published their findings in their book Secular Cycles. They found that populations that discovered new resources were able to grow for a period of time until they came close to the carrying capacity of the resources available. After approaching the carrying capacity, economies reached a period of stagflation, characterized by slower growth, inflation, and spiking prices as shown on Figure 3.
At this point, the fossil fuel system has been growing for over 200 years. It has undergone stagflation since the early 1970s. It is now ready to begin the downswing of the Crisis Years.
Now, the Iran War seems to mark the beginning of a fairly long Crisis Period. The Stagflation Period was expected to last 50 to 60 years. The year 2026 is 56 years after the time US crude oil production stopped growing, so the timing is roughly in line with expectations. However, we don’t know whether the Crisis Period will really last between 20 and 50 years, since the situation is now quite different compared to cycles before fossil fuels were added to the economy. But it does look like the world economy is headed for reorganization based on the limited fuel supply.
[3] In order for an economy to “work,” oil prices need to be both low enough for consumers, buying end products such as food made possible by the use of oil, and high enough for oil producers.
This issue is not one most people think much about. There are really two different oil price levels that are important:
(a) The price level affordable by consumers. If consumers cannot afford food or basic transportation, this quickly becomes a problem that leads to unhappiness with elected officials. This is the reason why elected officials often try to hold down oil prices.
(b) The price that oil producers require in order to make an adequate profit and allow investment in new wells to offset depletion in existing wells. In the case of oil exporters, oil prices may need to be very high to permit high taxes on oil exports to support food subsidies and other government programs.
I believe that a major problem we have reached today is that countries that are primarily oil exporters, such as Russia and countries in the Middle East, need far higher oil prices than consumers are able to pay. Even if the wars in Ukraine and Iran stopped tomorrow, the world would still have this underlying issue.
[4] Since 2014, oil prices have been too low for countries that use taxes on oil exports as a major source of tax revenue.
Figure 4. Oil prices in 2025 US$, with ovals marking three different oil price periods. Oil prices are based on oil data from the 2025 Statistical Review of World Energy, published by the Energy Institute, adjusted by the US CPI Urban increase to 2025 levels. The 2025 average Brent oil price is from EIA data.
Figure 4 shows average world oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis, to 2025 price levels. As such, prices for earlier dates appear much higher on the graph than past observers would have seen them.
The low oil prices from 1948 until early 1973 were good for economies around the world, including the US. In the early days of oil extraction, oil was easy to extract and close to where it was to be used. The cost of extraction and transport was low. Consumers started seeing many more products become available. Many families in the US could afford a car for the first time. Also, the US was able to support the recovery of European economies from the impact of World War II at a cost that was not excessive.
In recent years, costs have risen. This is especially the case for the price needed by oil exporters. Part of the problem is that the size of the population requiring subsidy keeps growing, while oil production has been close to flat.
A second part of the problem is that economies of oil exporters often have few other sources of taxable revenue. Oil exporters are trying to change this by adding downstream manufacturing that uses the oil and gas they produce. A third part of the problem is that, as population grows, the higher population tends to use more of the available oil supply, leaving less for export.
Figure 6 shows that, in the 2011-2013 period, oil prices seemed to be high enough for most OPEC members (except Iran). Fiscal break-even prices indicate how high oil prices need to be, including the amount of tax revenue needed to balance budgets.
The notation in yellow on Figure 6 shows that the expected fiscal breakeven break-even for the period under analysis for all OPEC members combined was $105. EIA data shows that the average Brent oil prices during this period were $111 in the year 2011, $112 in the year 2012, and $109 in 2013. Thus, prices were high enough for most producers. Iran was an outlier on the high side, with a range for the 2013-2014 period of $110 to $172. (A more recent forecast for Iran shows a 2025 fiscal breakeven price of $124, which remains far above the pre-Iran war oil price.)
Figure 4 shows that oil prices began to fall in 2014. At these lower levels, it became increasingly difficult for oil exporters to obtain enough tax revenue to significantly help their local populations. They started needing to use more debt to fund their local economies. As a result, they gradually became increasingly unhappy. Figure 4 shows that the average price 2025 for Brent oil was only $65.
To make matters worse for oil exporting countries requiring high prices, oil price forecasts by the EIA and IEA for the year 2026 were even lower because of an expected oversupply of oil. Countries with growing oil production included Argentina, Brazil, China, and Guyana. In addition, some counties on the coast of Africa are hoping to add oil production. Unless world demand is growing rapidly, more oil supply tends to lead to lower prices and a worse situation for oil exporters trying to balance their budgets with taxes on exported oil.
[5] Without the war, LNG prices would also have been too low for LNG exporters.
LNG is a “modern” way of shipping natural gas. Only about 13% of natural gas is transported as LNG. It tends to be an expensive method of transport. Recent reports indicate that a huge amount of future LNG supply is planned for the next few years.
Adding a huge amount of LNG would probably cause prices to drop significantly. This would be great from the point of view of consumers, but it would likely leave prices too low for producers. As I see the situation, Middle Eastern producers are likely to need prices in the $15 to $20 range per million metric tons of LNG, while India is not willing to pay more than $10 per unit, and those wanting to replace coal are unwilling to pay more than $5 per unit. Thus, without the war, LNG would have had a similar problem to that of oil, with prices far too low for exporters.
[6] From Iran’s point of view, I see the war as similar to a suicide, when a farmer can no longer support his family.
With Iran’s fiscal breakeven price at $124 per barrel and the pre-war Brent price at only $65, Iran was already in an impossible position. In fact, Iran could see that all of the Middle East infrastructure would be close to worthless, at expected 2026 oil and LNG prices. So why not take it down as well?
If nothing else, a war might help raise prices, at least a bit. Notice that on Figure 4, oil prices bounced up a little from their very low level in 2022, the year when the Ukraine conflict started.
[7] Losing any significant share of energy supply is likely to significantly reduce world GDP.
If the energy supply were to be lost, the world would be dealing with the losing something equivalent to its food supply. If the world economy loses even 10% of its oil and LNG, it is not difficult to imagine world GDP falling by 10%. At this point, we don’t know precisely how much energy supply, of which kind, will be lost, or for how long. The amount lost could be far higher than 10%. Also, the outage could last for years.
There are many issues involved. Supply lines are breaking down forcing businesses to find closer sources for both energy products and products made using cheap local energy products, such as fertilizer and aluminum. The war, as it is taking place today, is leading to major damage to energy-related structures in the Middle East. Destroyed LNG structures are estimated to take at least five years to replace. Damage elsewhere is also immense. Rebuilding the oil infrastructure will also likely take at least five years.
[8] The US understands the importance of Middle Eastern oil and gas. It uses its strong relationship with Israel to further its military presence in the Middle East.
Israel is a very high-level ally. In fact, a 2025 US Department of State Fact Sheet says that the US is committed to helping Israel in the case of an attack:
Steadfast support for Israel’s security has been a cornerstone of American foreign policy for every U.S. Administration since the presidency of Harry S. Truman. . . Israel is the leading global recipient of Title 22 U.S. security assistance under the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program. . .Israel has been designated as a U.S. Major Non-NATO Ally under U.S. law. This status provides foreign partners with certain benefits in the areas of defense trade and security cooperation and is a powerful symbol of their close relationship with the United States. Consistent with statutory requirements, it is the policy of the United States to help Israel preserve its QME, or its ability to counter and defeat any credible conventional military threat from any individual state or possible coalition of states or from non-state actors, while sustaining minimal damages and casualties.
However, if we look to see where US military bases are located, they are not in Israel. Instead, a map shows that the “persistent” US military bases are all located around the Persian Gulf (Figure 8).
These bases were clearly intended to protect oil transiting through the Persian Gulf. At this point, all of the persistent bases have been severely damaged by missiles from Iran.
The major interest of the US has been the availability of oil and natural gas from the Middle East. No one ever considered the idea that low prices might be the force that would bring down Middle Eastern oil and natural gas exports.
Friendship with Israel provides the US a convenient close by ally. It also pleases both Jewish Americans who support Israel and those evangelical Christians who hold a religious view that Israel is needed for the second coming of Christ. Some of the latter may even believe that a war in the Middle East could perhaps hasten this event.
[9] Trump realizes that winning the war against Iran is absolutely essential if the US is to retain global hegemony.
The US has been the holder of the world’s reserve currency since immediately after World War II. It was chosen for this role because it was the most trusted and dominant country in the world. International trade took place almost exclusively in US dollars, creating a high demand for US government debt. This allowed the US to import more goods and services than it exported, year after year. This advantage tended to raise the standard of living of US residents.
At one time, Saudi Arabia insisted that all oil purchases be made in US dollars. This requirement has recently expired, but, as a practical matter, the majority of purchases have continued to be through trades in US dollars.
One of the main ways that the US has maintained its hegemony is by building military bases around the world. With these bases, the US can claim to protect countries against aggressors. However, recent events have shown that Iran is able to take down the radar systems at these bases. Without radar, the bases are virtually useless. If the US is to maintain the illusion that it is truly at the top of the pecking order with its sophisticated weaponry, it must show that, together with Israel, it can prevail against Iran.
A disadvantage of the role of being the chief hegemon is ever-rising US government debt and the need to pay interest on that debt. This growing debt and the interest on the debt has become an increasing burden.
If the US should lose its hegemony role, the advantage the US has had over other countries in trade is likely to disappear. Repaying debt with interest is likely to become an even worse problem. If this should happen, Trump will no longer be able to think about making America great again.
[10] Conclusion
The world is now facing a problem that most people never considered possible: Oil and LNG prices can fall so low that production becomes unprofitable for major oil and LNG exporters. Until now, the trend among world leaders, including President Trump, has been to try to hold prices down for consumers, so that food and fuel for vehicles would remain affordable. However, this has created a problem in that prices have become too low for countries whose primary industry is being an oil exporter.
At this point, the world economy needs to make a major transition in order to deal with the inadequate level of fuels available for long-distance transportation. These same fuels are heavily used for farming and for many for commercial endeavors, such as building homes and roads. It is therefore necessary to find ways to use these fuels more sparingly. One way to achieve this is by reducing the length of most supply lines, as shown on Figure 1. Shorter supply lines will also be needed elsewhere in the world.
It is ironic that the world economy cannot make a change such as this without a war to focus our attention in this direction. Other changes will also be needed. Governments will probably have to become smaller and provide fewer services. Vacation travel will become the exception rather than the rule. “Working from home” will become the norm, whenever possible. I expect that the world’s population will need to fall, albeit in a fairly subtle way. I expect this will mostly be the result of shorter life expectancies.
We are fortunate that economies are self-organizing. If resources are available, even after a major schism such as the loss of the war against Iran, the self-organizing nature of the economic system will try to knit together pieces that can productively provide goods and services. This cannot happen instantly, but this feature means that there are likely to be some jobs and some goods and services available. Past cycles of the type illustrated in Figure 3 have eventually led to new beginnings.
If the US and Israel lose the current war against Iran, I expect President Trump to be blamed for this loss. However, I believe that this outcome would be best for the world as a whole.
“One question many physical oil traders have had over the past week is: “Why aren’t China’s onshore crude oil inventories declining?”
Well…
– We know that China has underground crude oil inventories.
– We know China had a lot of sanctioned crude flooding in (Russia and Iran).
– We know China banned petroleum product exports (recently restarted, but it’s a rounding error, 116k b/d).
– We know China saw a ~2.9 million b/d year-over-year decrease in seaborne crude imports in April.
Based on China’s economic data, there’s no scenario where oil demand fell by more than 2.9 million b/d. Anecdotal data from my discussions with people on the ground points to the same conclusion. As a result, there are only two reasonable conclusions we can arrive at:
1. China is releasing crude oil inventories in underground storage, knowing full well that the rest of the world is watching its onshore inventories.
2. Refineries in China have throttled back throughput, but product inventories are drawing (unobservable).
My assumption here is that a bit of both. At the end of the day, the 12 million b/d of production shut-in is a known fact. China’s oil inventory data is not. Given that we know one of them with certainty, then it’s the uncertain variable we have to question, not the known one.
But during times of chaos, we can lose our minds, so I get it; traders are starting to question their own sanity.
I’m here to tell you that you are not. The math is what it is.”
Quote
HFI Research
@HFI_Research
·
May 7
Here’s a list of jawbones on tap for next week:
– Axios
– Pakistani Sources
– Arab sources
– MOU signing soon
– Project Freedom
– Trump saying gasoline prices are down
– Iran is about to run out of oil inventories
– China will broker a deal for the US (😂)
– Bank of Japan intervention
– IEA SPR release
Comment below if I’m missing anything.
Is this information from zero hedge? https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/traders-puzzled-physical-oil-prices-tumble-amid-surging-chinese-crude-sales-plunging
It sounds like oil could fall in price in the future? I’m a bit confused . I’m wondering if we are looking at the wrong problem. Maybe it is debt that triggers everything
A moving Lego video from Iran. Iran a nation that has the courage to name what the pigs of Washington DC are unable to say for fear the people will remember what has been stolen from us.
God bless Iran.
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/world-news/eight-weeks-to-empty-shelves-sixty-days-to-famine-what-caused-it-and-what-you-need-to-do-immediately
EIGHT WEEKS TO EMPTY SHELVES. SIXTY DAYS TO FAMINE. WHAT CAUSED IT, AND WHAT YOU NEED TO DO IMMEDIATELY
Article By: Mark A. Shryock
This read is interesting. Hal Turner has posted an article written by Mark A. Shryock. He talks about how the flow of diesel is in trouble, as in a predicament kind of trouble.
Here is the article by Shyrock if you don’t want to sign in to Halturner to have to read it.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-196912511?source=queue
Tesla recalls all of its ‘budget’ Cybertrucks over fears that the wheels might fall off
https://www.techradar.com/vehicle-tech/hybrid-electric-vehicles/tesla-recalls-all-of-its-budget-cybertrucks-over-fears-that-the-wheels-might-fall-off
Fortunately, Tesla only sold 173 of the vehicles whose tires are prone to falling off.
The website that this came from linked to an article from February about a different Tesla SNAFU.
https://www.techradar.com/vehicle-tech/hybrid-electric-vehicles/tesla-hails-the-arrival-of-its-first-cybercab-meanwhile-its-robotaxis-are-crashing-four-times-more-than-human-drivers
Tesla hails the arrival of its first Cybercab – meanwhile, its Robotaxis are crashing four times more than human drivers
The Robotaxi has clocked up 14 incidents since it launched
. . . new evidence shows Tesla’s current Robotaxi fleet (you know, the one with a real driver on hand in case things go wrong) reported five new crash incidents in Austin, Texas recently.
This brings the total number of incidents up to 14 since the service launched in June 2025 that, by Tesla’s own benchmarking, meaning its Robotaxi fleet is experiencing one crash every 57,000 miles, according to Electrek.
When compared to data from human drivers, who experience a minor collision every 229,000 miles and a major collision every 699,000 miles in North America, Tesla’s Robotaxi service is experiencing an incident four times as often.
Understandably, that elevated incident rate stems chiefly from inner city traffic ( component ) vs highway part right ?
Because the latter case is more easy flow ~rule based quasi “2d” environment vs city realm elevated human-oid “3d” chaos..
So, it will take some considerable [ more time ] to lower that today’s 4x score as it surely takes gigantic amount of extra AI/cpu/sensors/.. resources to guard it all inside cities..
EIA has posted a figure for world crude oil production for last January (84.533 Mb/d) — this is 2% below their current highest monthly figure (86.227 Mb/d, for last September).
Is world “peak oil” past? ( https://davecoop.net/seneca )
https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world/petroleum-and-other-liquids/monthly-petroleum-and-other-liquids-production?pd=5&p=0000000000000000000000000000000000vg&u=0&f=M&v=mapbubble&a=-&i=none&vo=value&t=C&g=00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001&l=249-ruvvvvvfvtvnvv1vrvvvvfvvvvvvfvvvou20evvvvvvvvvvnvvvs0008&s=94694400000&e=1767225600000
Maybe; more likely now than before all of the fighting in the Middle East.
Production after the straight opens up will temporarily be low, but then it could be artificially high for a while, as reserve fuel is added to regular crude oil. If some is permanently off line, then production will be lower than before.
February could still be higher than the previous high, although it doesn’t seem likely that it will be higher than September’s production.
Total crude oil production was quite clearly rising until very recently.
Just in diamondback energy has given the green light for an increase to it’s drilling rigs quoting continued high prices for crude oil it’s rivals Chevron and ExxonMobil are thinking about doing the same shortly so USA will benefit from these War induced high oil prices, Peak Oil may be beaten once again if other oil producers start increasing production so high prices could keep the oil production permanently beating peak oil as long as oil prices keep rising.I wonder if the Elders will ever get the Oil Price to one thousand dollars a barrel, I personally think they will because it is so beneficial to society so extraction must never decrease but increase until nuclear fusion or something else replaces non-renewable resources. My Conclusion in our current reality Continued Wars are the only way Oil prices will keep ticking higher so expect the Elders to keep Oil Wars going for the foreseeable future.In other words the Iran War will not end for the foreseeable future.
JUST IN: Protests erupt in the Canary Islands, opposing the arrival of the hantavirus cruise ship.
https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2052827496882503775
Let’s scare everyone.
It does seem to have a high fatality rate. I am scared. I will not be flying to Perth any time soon. Only need to leave the house is grocery shopping.
Are there some known early %correlation precondition so far:
age, race, diet, sun exposure, political leaning (hah), .. ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KEt9At1257g
Expect Deadly Food Scarcity And Price Hikes: ICC Secretary General Sounds Alarm On Fertilizer Crisis (16:53)
12,458 views May 7, 2026
John Denton, Secretary General of the International Chamber of Commerce, joined Brittany Lewis on “Forbes Newsroom” to discuss the impact the fertilizer shortage caused by the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz will have on food prices and supply.
So Samsung became the second company to have a valuation of $ 1 trillion after TSMC . KOSPI at all time high . Why ? They have devolped a faster chip for AI ? Nobody asks the question for diesel and helium for a country that imports 100% of both and Qatar supplying 30 % of the world’s helium is down and out .
https://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=269149
A single hydrogen bomb from yhr fat guy in North Korea can eliminate it in no time
Northbound ” fatguy ” apparently trimmed weight a bit recently.. Perhaps Xi sent him some top Shaolin fitness experts..
Eventually, that old joke of ever food starving NK people could perform uncanny turn around into ” round eye ” pop malnutrition instead and in not so distant future though.
The Strait of Hormuz is closed and oil still hasn’t hit $150. Here’s why.
Energy Economist Anas Alhajji breaks it down: strategic reserves, demand destruction, fuel switching, and a Saudi move nobody was talking about.
“Knowing when they saw the American ships basically coming to the Gulf, they knew something is going on.”
Saudi Arabia pre-loaded storage in Egypt and Rotterdam before the war even started. Europe bought itself two months… The clock is still ticking.
Please see these two video clips of 5 minutes and 3 minutes .
https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2052610444435599766
A few years ago, someone who had worked for Saudi Armco called me on the phone and told me about the distant storage that Saudi Arabia used to make it look like they could ramp production up and down more than they really could. I remember hearing about Egypt, but I don’t remember Rotterdam. The same idea would apply. He claimed that Saudi Aramco didn’t count oil as produced until it left these storage sites.
Supposedly, at least +4x ships a blaze in Omani coast, confirmed via sat pictures; as here “drifting fire” likely means ships on fire in prevailing weather/wind pattern – hence that specific sat signature.. But doubtful you get such sat signal merely from Iranian lite speed boats ablaze.. as Don alluded..
Indian YTch: (h)ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gxPsKyrkCY
The WSJ has an editorial about AI, with estimates of the distortions it seems to have on reported US economic growth indications:
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-is-distorting-practically-everything-about-the-economy-4ca6fcff
AI Is Distorting Practically Everything About the Economy
It makes growth look better and the job market look worse. Maybe an AI investment bust wouldn’t hurt so much after all.
My back-of-the-envelope estimate is that the AI economy grew 31% [in the first quarter], the non-AI economy just 0.1%. David Sacks, President Trump’s AI czar, predicts AI will add 2 percentage points to economic growth this year. . .
This points to something else AI is distorting: international trade. It’s why U.S. imports rose so much in the first quarter, causing the trade deficit to widen, and why Taiwan’s trade surplus has reached an almost unthinkable 24% of GDP. Kospi, the South Korean stock index—home to semiconductor giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix—is up 78% this year. So while Trump wants tariffs to shrink the U.S. trade deficit and other countries’ surpluses, the opposite is happening. Without AI, he might have gotten his way. . .
One reason higher energy prices haven’t stopped the S&P 500 from hitting a new high is that the “Magnificent Seven,” tech companies that account for over a third of its market capitalization, have stormed back. The index is up 7% since the start of the Iran war. Weighting all 500 companies equally, the index actually fell slightly. . .
This [the AI distortion] is skewing the division of the economic pie between capital and labor. As profits gallop ahead, labor compensation (wages and benefits) grew just 3.1% annualized in the first quarter, and actually shrank 0.5% after inflation, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Labor’s share of total business-sector output fell to 54.1%, the lowest since records began in 1947. . .
At the end:
Suppose the world suddenly decided to stop spending so much on AI and the boom turned to bust. We would have an economy free of AI’s distortions, not free of AI.
Overall U.S. growth would slow, but less than you might think. Just 33 counties account for 72% of data centers, so a construction drought wouldn’t ripple that widely.
Stocks and profits would fall but the average worker, who depends more on wages than wealth, would be barely affected. And the mood might improve if the bosses talked less about doing everything with AI.
Ha yeah its “AI”. Nobody here remembers how right before COVID it was 5G that was going to revolutionize everything? Every number since COVID has been complete utter bullshit. I stopped reading the wall street journal in 2008-09 when they wanted to blame ACORN for the ills of the housing market. All of the MSM is intellectually dishonest and a fair portion of the alternative sites are also. In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king.
I just read this and it sounds so contradictory? Who writes this nonsense? Oh yeah I forgot AI writes it!!! Nothing to see here folks we have everything under control!
I think that this article is perfectly correct. The way GDP is calculated it is very easy for it to be distorted.
I guess it’s the comment at the end the I don’t like. If AI were to crash the average worker would not feel it. No if AI crashes everyone will feel it even retirees
“0:00 In 2024, you made three predictions that have come perfectly true, like Trump would start a war with Iran. And you’ve made a series of new predictions.
0:09
Yes. And I’ll explain each prediction one by one. Okay. So, first I predict that Trump will get a third term. But isn’t this constitutionally illegal?
0:16
It’s not. The president now has emergency war powers and so he could actually delay the election. My second prediction is Iran is under a forever war and the United States will institute
0:25
a national draft. Meaning that if you’re between 18 to 24 in America and you’re male, you’ll be automatically put into the draft system and they just pass a law that says that starting in December,
0:34
you will be automatically registered,
0:36
which means you’re obliged to go and fight. Exactly. Next, the world will move towards an AI civilian state. So everything you do online is being
0:44
recorded to figure out and how to control you. And then this is the most controversial prediction.“?
This would make more sense if the US actually had the ammunition to fight more wars and didn’t have to go to China to buy more raw materials for the ammunition. The US can’t keep adding more wars, IMO. They need an off-ramp to peace.
LOL, Jiang is a blatant viral operative pumping misdirection and a longer timeline than what exists.
vs. serious gravy delivered here ( t:25min onward ):
(h)ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_wNsHwWYyk
@ Krainer on Diesen
City of London obsessed Krainer bringing the Hand-lite theory. That’ll have to do.
Yes, that’s the eternal question about ” good enough general vector ” or ” taken for a walk/ride..” , especially during the over-all atmosphere being now on cusp of another world war possibly..
Here MG’s Fico (SK) during the Victory day in Moscow (only? him from EU/NATO block), speaking about tens of thousands young RU/Soviets lads dying in faraway country to bring about liberation. Vlad’s secret agent dropping slightly in focus and paying more attention to Fico’s talk than surroundings hah.. Understandable, don’t punish him !
(h)ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZETFkZPJWAc
t: 10min
There is a large group of Slovak citizens who still associate prosperity with Russian oil and gas because of the past. Visiting Moscow is politically appealing to Fico’s electorate.
Tangential to the greater ” London ” vector angle, here the ~silly? [ lips reading ] story during Charles x Trump visit just few weeks ago..
Basically, claiming while seemingly off camera hot mic/close reach, Don starts consulting Charles what to do as supposedly, Vlad communicated to him he wants the armageddon war now.. hah.
https://thenightly.com.au/world/royals/lip-reader-reveals-sinister-warning-donald-trump-issued-king-charles-during-white-house-visit-c-22202773
PS mostly likely bogus, nevertheless then bottom line still remains, UK as propaganda hot bed for said vector again confirmed anywayz..
(origo source: DailyMail rag)
Classic culture clash on the WH lawn. King’s probably thinking nothing Trump says is true and even if it was true, nothing Putin threatens regarding the Ukraine war is true.
Synthetic materials. Back in the 1960s I used to have to wear such itchy clothes, but then came polyester and nylon mixes. Ah, the relief. Then years later, when I was 22, I discovered Canderel. Since then I have used it in my tea instead of sugar and spread it in powdered form on my porridge. And no, it has not given me cancer, despite over four decades of use.
What else? Synthetic smells in air freshener, some of them quite nice. But here we are in these days of peak oil, when stored fuel is being set alight in malicious acts all over the world. Yet we don’t have synthetic fuel when we need it. We have nanotechnology and AI, but still no synthetic fuel. Why not? What we need is synthetic fuel that smells nice and doesn’t burn and can’t be set alight. It has to be readily available at the stores. We need to be able to buy multiple cans of it at the supermarket. We could get our Mr. Paget stacking shelves with it, so that he can be made to earn the pension that he’s been receiving for decades. He could also make himself useful by writing manuals on how to use it.
So come on, Elon Musk, technological genius. We’ve had synthetic this and synthetic that. Where’s the synthetic fuel when we need it?
We have discovered that making synthetic fuel from other fossil fuels tends to be fairly expensive. Coal to liquids hasn’t caught on. There is a bit of natural gas to liquids, but it tends to make a few high-priced products.
We can take heavy oils and “fracture” them to provide lighter oils. This works reasonably well. Oil that would be close to asphalt can be converted to diesel and jet fuel, for example. The catch is that heavy oils are expensive to extract and transports. Adding the fracturing adds another layer of costs. If the oil price is high enough, this approach works.
Trying to make hydrogen work as a fuel seems like a futile exercise. It has been tried, and doesn’t work.
One idea that has been suggested is using the unneeded output of wind turbines to make nitrogen fertilizer. If there is a shortage of fertilizer and the price is high, this might be helpful. In this case, it is urea that is synthesized and used for a high-value need.
To have cheap and abundant synthetic materials, one needs to somehow obtain that proverbial usable “free energy” (in the sense of the valuable negative ΔG and to lesser extent of that negative ΔA) and then convert it/them into useful work, somehow. Traditional “fossil” fuels provided plenty of usable “free energy”, converted into work at (reasonably) low temperatures, volumes and pressures at the very refineries, that are being actively destroyed as we speak, combustion engines, furnaces etc.
Soylent green is posed to become that very “synthetic fuel”, you are so eagerly waiting for.
I do not believe that imaginary White Hydrogen of adonis and MG to exist at all.
Mr Pagett has already earned that pension by paying premiums on it for decades. But a shelf-stacking job would be a great way to supplement his income and his current exercise routine. Deadlifting all those weights at the gym is a total waste of effort and energy, which could be put to productive use by stacking shelves, or even unstacking them. Norman should give Tesco a bell and see if they are interested.
Synthetic sweetners in your tea and your porridge?! It may not be carcinogenic, but rather you than me. Tea should be served without being sweetened, shaken but not stirred. And porridge made from organic oatmeal not desiccated with glyphosate should be savored with Celtic sea salt, not the Rangers one.
You’re quite bossy today, Tim. Is that your manifesto for taking over as independent Prime Minister of the UK, after Starmer’s mauling on Thursday? Enforcing the James Bond method of making tea?
Anyway, I noticed recently that Scotland gets 9 public holidays while Northern Ireland gets 10. In England and Wales we only get 8. Disgraceful. I’ll tell Farage about that. Something must be done. And those greedy Americans get 11 federal holidays. Typical.
Airports ‘already out of fuel’ CEO warns as World Cup flight cancellations on the table
“An airline CEO has pulled back the cover and revealed some airports have already run out of fuel sparking fears and speculation airlines will be forced to cut flights during this year’s World Cup”
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/airports-already-out-fuel-ceo-37126595
This is the kind of thing that goes wrong:
Carsten Spohr, CEO of the German airline Lufthansa, has stated one of the firm’s passenger planes was unable to refuel due to fuel shortages, after touching down in Cape Town, South Africa, last week. The passenger jet was forced to fly 900 miles north to Namibia to fill up before returning to its original destination.
Meanwhile Trump’s poster boy in Argentina is back in trouble .
https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-04-12/argentinas-milei-is-struggling-with-the-economy-and-losing-popularity.html
Apparently Argentina is a new operating base / destination for Israelis. Also, they have a lot of frackable oil, so we need our guys there to change the operating environment (business regulations etc) to make it accessible to our oil companies.
It has been so for years. The territory being occupied includes the Chilean part of Patagonia, where Israel has a submarine base.
Argentina seems to have a K-shaped economy, with the poor doing very badly. This is no surprise, if the economy is becoming more “complex.” The rich win, while the poor lose out. Argentina’s frackable oil extraction is increasing.
Good Morning . Have a f°°°°ing nice day .
Iran war live updates: ‘Led by lunatics’: US and Iran exchange strikes in Strait of Hormuz .
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-08/iran-war-live-updates-us-tehran-exchange-fire-strait-of-hormuz/106654230
Some more info .
https://www.theepochtimes.com/world/iran-reports-explosion-at-qeshm-island-port-forces-exchanging-fire-6022789?utm_source=rtnewsnoe&src_src=rtnewsnoe&utm_campaign=rtbreaking-2026-05-07-8&src_cmp=rtbreaking-2026-05-07-8&utm_medium=email&utm_content=reactivate&est=pLwW5p5ISECDcojEDB5d8NaHbr3Myk%2B8EFm2NH0Z49AO2ht9VyEJwxJXtbHFIcOpeg%3D%3D
Each side says that the other started it. The US says that the cease fire still holds.
“This Hanta Virus Is A Cover For The Fuel Crisis And Necessary Home Lock-downs
They can’t have society collapse from fuel running out or hitting $15 a gallon so they come up with this virus cover story to make people stay at home on lock down.
The real reason is there is no fuel.
And people need to stay at home until the crisis is over.
But a fuel lock down would cause panic.
So they use a virus as a cover to impose restrictions.
A virus lockdown will reduce consumption so kicking can down the road a little bit whilst distracting from the real issue. Ppl may not comply and fight back, but so long as they are not looking to the oil – its what they want.”
-rando on x
No one will ever say that we are short of energy supplies. They will come up with a new narrative. This is part of the new religion that the Power that Be are mandating.
America has no culture, no values, no honor. Trump is the perfect non-leader.
Yet some morons say American lives are precious
I value American lives on the same league as , say Zimbabwean.
Whoever you are, I am very much willing to purchase (at full reasonable price) your pseudonymous book at Amazon, B&N or any reputable online bookstore of your choice, Kulm 😅
I do not write books.
Obviously, you’ve never been to a “Jelly Roll” concert or visited Walt Disney World.
The self-organizing system works in ways that we don’t understand. It doesn’t seem to value culture or honor. It only works toward survival of the best adapted for the current conditions, however they may be changing. Without enough to go around, the best adapted may be the one who is the biggest bully.
Oil storage tanks in the United States will run empty “somewhere in the July 4 period,” Carlyle’s Jeff Currie
https://x.com/business/status/2052018862128832571
What a way to celebrate the nation’s 250th anniversary!
this looks like a taste of collapse.with no oil there may be shortages of many kinds .but it will eventually come to this anyhow due to no acknowledgement of peak oil and limits to growth so eventually this would all come to pass. we will just learn to do things differently.
I would recommend everyone to see the movie Soylent Green starring Charlton Heston and Edward G Robinson it is set in the year 2022 so whoever made this movie was pretty close because I think we’re gonna get to these conditions very soon.
I bet Norman is a big fan of that movie and still watches it regularly today.
Edward G. Robinson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uIyIjGUEIE
My favorite..the death scence …1973 the oil cisis
nah—-
terminator was on again last night—so watched that again
”i vant your clothes your boots and your motorcycle”—cracks me up –every time, thats about as far as i get though….
Norman, you are such an animule
I’ll be BACK
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/inflection-points/the-real-trouble-with-the-us-debt-topping-100-percent-of-gdp/
Borowing to pay increasing interest, & then more: can this involve “manias, panics, & crashes”, where the debt rolls over, & there’s a loss of confidence, & new suckers aren’t found, to buy into the pyramid scheme?
For countries without the reserve currency, one rule of thumb was that debt should not be more than 80% of GDP, or problems would ensue. With the reserve currency, perhaps the level could be somewhat higher. The US is up near the edge.
And of course, the debt (and interest) we owe our ourselves still has to be paid as well. For example, some of this is to fund Social Security and Medicare. Current recipients want to be paid, and new ones added.
Just some thoughts . Can the INDUSTRIAL healthcare system survive the collapse of INDUSTRIAL CIVILIZATION ? I have been hospitalized several times and when I look at the complexity in the system , I am astonished . Let us see a hospital where I have 300 beds . 300 x 4 meals = 1200 meals . Now they have to make sure that the diabetes patient gets no sugars , the stomach operated patient gets only liquid foods etc .Before you have an operation you have to fill in a questioner which is only online ( paperless society ) for the anesthetist . The website is hacked and now I have to go to the hospital to fill it on paper . I have been under the knife 4 times and now as I reflect this is not tenable .
As a retired orthopedic surgeon, and whose ex and mother were anesthesiologists, I do not see how the current US system of healthcare can survive much longer. It’s not just the logistics as you mention but the financials. We can no longer afford to physically supply our extravagant BAU economy with affordable energy, nor can we afford Cadillac health care services to the elderly, whose demand for such services is vastly out of proportion compared to the younger working population. In aggregate, this drain may apply to illegal immigrants, many non-productive, who arrive at the hospital emergency rooms where they can not denied treatment by law. Hospitals cost shift this expense to the productive middle class. And yet when I see the new nursing school being built, the workers are all Hispanic. When my YMCA next door had its 50 meter pool completely resurfaced, who was doing all the work with the jackhammers busting up the old cement and tile in a cloud of dust? Hispanics.
thank you for a common sense reply to this problem Hubbs…
using complex technology, humankind has painted itself into an inescapable corner on care and medication.
in past (non industrial) times non viable people of any age were allowed to die off without too much fuss, now, doctors express their skills by keeping 1lb babies and 99 yr oild grannies alive at any cost—- to what purpose?
i have a friend who was taken into hospital for ”end of life” care—she’s been there 2 years now.—yet no means exists by which she can elect to end it all…even if she wanted to. the cost must be astronomic.
doctors are trained to extend life at almost any cost, but despite being unsustainable, it goes on, because the alterative is involuntary euthanasia, which few are willing to countenance.—-what it boils down to, is someone has to commit the final act, and that is the crunch. a
an inviable baby has no opinion—so who will make the decision?—a sportsman injures himself and becomes a paraplegic—you were an orthopedic surgeon, and could sustain his (limited) future life—at what point do you sign his death warrant because his life is unaffordable (to the rest of us)—because that’s what it comes down to.
in any event, our healthcare system has been entirely the product of the surplus energy delivered by our industrial system.
remove that surplus energy, and we are back to the medicare of the 18th century
Don’t know anything about UK (also not being Sub-Saharan “Slovakian” with an opinion on everything), so not going to comment on your country situation.
But, in the nearby Canada, they are efficiently pursuing the (free) energy needs, it seems:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sallypipes/2026/04/06/what-canadas-euthanasia-surge-reveals-about-single-payer-health-care/
Any thoughts on the legalized and actively imposed euthanasia services, NP?
there is a big difference between legalised—(as discussed in the link you posted). and actively imposed, which is the hysterical nonsense you added for effect.
I have family links in canada which are constantly active…
no one is imposing anything, merely offering choices.
the canadian health service is excellent, from the experience of my own family….your life is your own, it should be your freedom to do what you like with it.
which is a very civilised approach.
daft comments merely reflect on you.
Great – so, the conclusion is “freedom to do what you like with it” is coming here and to the UK as well.
Thanks – NP!
so we have the choice—you—are free to do with your own life as you choose
or
other people control your life and do with it as they choose.
your comments get dafter
That’s MG’s corrupting influence on me and my intelligence…
“the Canadian health service is excellent”
perhaps in the past. I have a friend who retired to his native Vancouver Island. Couldn’t get a doctor due to a shortage. There was a lottery and he was not selected. hmm yea excellent…
if you live on a remote scottish island you might run into the same problem
There is a reason why I am so often finding fault with Norman. Take almost any fundamental moral issue and you can almost guarantee that Norman will be advocating on the wrong side of it.
THE PROBLEM
In practice, MAiD allows for cases whose applicant is qualified by having a medical condition or disability but whose suffering arises from unmet needs such as food, housing, or medical treatment, whose access is economically blocked.
This is Economic or Poverty-Driven Euthanasia.
Provincial and federal social disability support programs place recipients into official ‘Deep Poverty’ lines. These are almost universally insufficient for basic essentials, creating suffering that can combine with the cross-eligibility between these programs and MAiD.
This structurally produces a non-zero rate of economic euthanasia amongst Canadians with disabilities.
This is Economic Disability Euthanasia .
If Trumpy or Putin was pushing economic euthanasia for people with disabilities, Norman would be the first to condemn the practice.
But remember Norman,
First they came for the disabled and destitute, but I was able-bodied and had my pension, so I did nothing.
Then, when they came for the pensioners, there was nobody to speak for me.
My friend just had a new hip installed for $149,000. He may do the other hip and both knees. The surgery was done by a robot. The human overseeing the robot is Indian with education in India.
Why is this so expensive ? It should cost something between 15 and 30k
The myth and reality of the Indian economy . Rajesh Mahapatra the top economic analyst in India . Yes , the Indian collapse will not effect EU but imagine 1.4 billion in dire straits and no where to immigrate .
I can believe that the Indian economy will crash if resource prices are high.
A few quotes:
0:17 Our demand is depressed because our median income is low. Why our median income is low? Because our economy is not generating jobs. Your rupee has been depreciating and will continue to depreciate in fact at a faster pace in the months to come because of a very big structural problem. The structural problem is this. Your manufacturing sector is hugely dependent on imports. [Of high priced energy products and materials.]
2:53 India’s economy is not doing well but Indians are doing even worse.
6:00 Now we also changed the way we calculate GDP because the way we were calculating GDP was under severe criticism. Several economists for the last several years have been saying that we were overestimating our GDP growth. [The problem seems to be high inflation that has not been adequately reflected.]
Thanks Gail for listening to this . This is 20% of the world’s population we are talking about here .
I have actually visited for a few days in India. I spoke at an energy conference there in Mumbai, India in 2012, and spent a few days afterwards, visiting nearby areas on a tour billed as “see the real India.” I sat on the floor of a home and ate lunch with my right hand. I saw women carrying jugs of water home on their heads from a central location.
The speakers from the conference from India were enthusiastic about how much better bottled LNG was than burning animal dung or coal for cooking. The air in Mumbai was terribly polluted.
This overall situation report probably needs some unpacking (and verification).
“Refined product stocks have been depleting even faster, with fuel stocks now down to 45 days of demand, from 50 days of demand before the war, Goldman Sachs reckons. The fuel buffers are “approaching very low levels fast,” according to the investment bank’s analysts.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Supply-Shock-Worsens-amid-Plunging-Petroleum-Inventories.html
Oil Supply Shock Worsens amid Plunging Petroleum Inventories
– Global oil and fuel inventories are falling at record speed as the Middle East supply shock overwhelms existing buffers.
– Analysts warn that stock draws will continue even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon.
– Major institutions, including Goldman Sachs and executives from TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil, say commercial inventories are approaching critically low levels, especially for refined fuels like gasoline and jet fuel.
Oil tanks
Global crude oil and fuel inventories are crashing at a record speed as the supply shock from the Middle East is too big to absorb without stock depletion.
While the futures markets trade on sentiment and hopes that a U.S.-Iran deal could soon lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the actual physical disruption is enormous. It has already erased the oversupply that the market faced at the start of the Iran war. The initial buffers are gone, and now commercial inventories are depleting so fast that even an imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will not reverse the stock draw for at least two months after flows from the Middle East normalize.
Analysts and executives say the global inventory situation will get worse before it gets better, as the market will need months before a potential relief arrives from an operational Strait of Hormuz.
Global Oil Inventories Crash
“Drawdowns across onshore and commodities on water, along with key hubs such as ARA, the US, and Singapore, are helping bridge supply gaps,” Sumit Ritolia at Kpler wrote in an analysis last week.
“However, inventory support remains finite and cannot sustainably offset prolonged disruptions,” the analyst noted.
Goldman Sachs has estimated that plunging global oil inventories are approaching an eight-year low, with the rate of depletion so fast that it exposes the market to further shocks.
While global oil stocks are “unlikely to hit minimum operational levels this summer, the speed of depletion and supply losses in some regions and products is concerning,” analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote in a note earlier this week.
Total oil stocks globally have now dropped to about 101 days of expected demand. With the Strait of Hormuz inaccessible for nearly all tanker traffic, these stocks could drop to as low as 98 days of demand by the end of May, Goldman’s analysts warned.
Stocks would continue to draw down even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz begin to recover in the coming weeks, as the peak summer season is approaching and cargoes from the Middle East – assuming they begin to move through Hormuz – will need weeks to reach destinations.
Related: U.S. Fuel Exports Hit Record High as Hormuz Crisis Reshapes Global Energy Flows
Refined product stocks have been depleting even faster, with fuel stocks now down to 45 days of demand, from 50 days of demand before the war, Goldman Sachs reckons.
The fuel buffers are “approaching very low levels fast,” according to the investment bank’s analysts.
For example, jet fuel stocks held independently in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) refining and storage hub fell by 4.7% in the last week of April, to their lowest level since March 2020, as imports crashed, data from Dutch consultancy Insights Global showed last week.
The 2026 surplus scenario was quickly erased by the war with “global hydrocarbon inventories being materially drawn to balance the market, already at a pace of 10 to 13 million barrels of oil per day,” Patrick Pouyanné, chief executive at TotalEnergies SE, said on the supermajor’s earnings call last week.
The world will have consumed about 1 billion barrels of inventories until supplies are restored and reach the market, Pouyanné added.
“We would exit even if the conflict, and I hope so, will end in the month of May, we would exit the conflict with clearly some very low inventories,” the executive noted.
CEO Darren Woods said on ExxonMobil’s earnings call, “it’s obvious to most that if you look at the unprecedented disruption in the world supply of oil and natural gas, the market hasn’t seen the full impact of that yet.”
“There’s more to come if the Strait remains closed.”
Even if the Strait opened up today, “there’s going to be a one to two-month time lag between the Strait opening up and the market seeing normal flow,” Woods said, noting that ships need to reposition themselves and take weeks to get the product to market.
U.S. Stocks Are Depleting, Too
The global stocks drawdown has reached the United States, too.
Crude oil inventories in the United States decreased by 2.3 million barrels during the week ending May 1, the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed on Wednesday. For total motor gasoline, the EIA reported that inventories had decreased by 2.5 million barrels on top of the 6.1 million barrels lost in the week prior.
The imminent start of the driving season, further weeks of closed Strait of Hormuz, and further drops in U.S. fuel inventories are setting the stage for even higher gasoline prices in the summer, analysts say.
As of May 1, U.S. gasoline stocks were at 219.8 million barrels, per EIA data, which is 4% below the five-year average and the lowest since 2014 for this time of year.
U.S. gasoline stocks are on track to drop to historic lows of below 200 million barrels by the end of August, according to Morgan Stanley.
“The US gasoline market is genuinely tight and tightening further into summer,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note earlier this week, as carried by Bloomberg.
Despite the demand destruction already taking place in price-sensitive markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, the magnitude of this supply shock would support oil and fuel prices even if the Strait of Hormuz opened unconditionally to free traffic today, as it would take months before the return of some semblance of normality.
At some point, prices will need to rise everywhere, or governments will need to clamp down on usage to keep prices from rising.
Ravi,
If the strait does not open soon is there enough in strategic supply to offset the shortage that we will see? I think the price of oil will have to go much higher to tamp down demand until we can get to normal levels again. I noticed that Quark has become a little more optimistic on the fact that we can get back to “normal “ again but I don’t think he is thinking about all of the geopolitical fallout from this! I don’t think any producers want the price to fall below $80!
Nat , I have already posted that the flow only starts after 7 months after the strait is opened , the tail end of the opening of the strait is 7 months . This is S&P assessment . I read all the guys long involved with peak oil ( Art Berman , Nate Hagens , Chris Martenson etc ) we do not have the oil that can be REFINED for a maximum of 60 days from today . Yes , oil will be available but not that will meet refinery specifications . Now it is not what price the producers want or what the suppliers want — it is what Tehran wants and what Washington will give up . Geo politics has overtaken all . Here is a post by JH so that you understand why things have not blown up . I am now looking at collateral damage for example bond rates , agro , currency , unemployment , bankruptcies etc . This is a poly crisis .
” 1) The SPR release is sending huge volumes of US crude into Europe, which is significantly dragging down the North Sea window diffs.
2) Panic bought cargoes from 1-2 months ago are arriving in Asia this month, giving Asian buyers some breathing room. There is a distinct lack of aggressive buying.
3) China’s SPR release.
4) Due to the combination of points 2 and 3, buyers are holding off on bids and staying on the sidelines, hoping the Strait will open. If it doesn’t open soon, they’ll be forced back into bidding for barrels.
5) I don’t want to blame anyone for this wait and see attitude. Looking at the demand to ship out enriched uranium stocks, I believe the chances of reaching a deal are extremely low.
6) But others might think differently. Plus no buyer wants to risk looking like a fool. Refineries still running have gained a bit of breathing room with May arrivals, and the rest have already implemented run cuts. Opportunistic buying is only natural.
6) There is plenty of incentive for operational refineries to maintain max runs. European diesel spreads are still at insane levels, and the WTI 3-2-1 crack is nearing $54/bbl even while crude is swinging by ~$20/bbl.
7) Unless diplomatic progress creates actual change, I expect buyers will soon be forced to start bidding again. ”
As you are aware I post also on Quark , you can see my disagreements on this issue with him . Thanks .
” Iran national security commission ‘red line’: No uranium has left the country; The right to enrich uranium, the complete lifting of sanctions, and the release of the country’s assets are non-negotiable red lines.”
The Iranians know this is their ” Hail Mary ” pass . They will not budge . The problem is that DJT goes to Beijing next week with crutches .
Sorry , forgot the link .
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/first-chinese-tanker-attacked-near-hormuz-beijing-urges-waterway-reopened
The Trump admin mulls restarting operation to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz with naval and air support as early as this week after Saudi Arabia and Kuwait lifted restrictions on US access to their bases and air spaces .
Update .
Ravi, that is a WSJ piece correct? I find it difficult to believe WSJ, Axios, Channel 12 and to some extent ZH
Just me.
runaway , what are you referring to ? I have multiple posts on this thread ;
Thank you Ravi
I appreciate your work
MG, just saw this on C&E …
Slovakia hit by extreme drought as farmers fear sharp fall in harvests
Experts say rainfall levels have dropped far below normal with wheat, potatoes and forests already showing signs of severe stress.
Read more: https://spectator.sme.sk/business/c/slovakia-faces-its-worst-spring-drought-in-more-than-a-century
Agricultural representatives say the financial pressure on farms is increasing as poor harvest expectations coincide with low grain prices and rising costs. Some producers warn they may be forced to reduce spending, take loans or cut jobs in order to survive the season, according to Hospodárske noviny.
This on top of rising cost of everything…looks grim
Yep relatively low rain/snow fall during past winter season.
+ recent rain storms weirdly weak as forming sort of tight alley tracks only – instead of wide rain-storm formation as it used to be, hence lot of land left w.out proper rain, cumulative effect!
I have to water my germinating plants several times a day because of the drying wind. I’m converting my vegetable beds to hugelkultur, as I expect the pieces of rotten wood in them to retain moisture for the plants.
Some “good news” hang on there, Sloppy
New data reveals 100% chance of strong ‘Super’ El Nino forming this year
The FOX Forecast Center said an El Niño of this caliber being predicted so early means it could be an event to look back on for years to come.
By Hayley Vawter Source FOX Weather
The latest long-range European forecast shows there’s a 100% chance of a super El Niño, potentially suppressing hurricane activity and making for a wetter fall and winter in the southern U.S.
Maybe it will be wetter..
https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/european-forecast-super-el-nino-strongest-ever-ocean-pacific-atlantic-hurricane-season.amp
MG> had great success w. hugels ( on lite slope ) so far, but do your research before as some berries and veggies then don’t like the ever moisty root-underground zone. Perhaps if your locale is really hard dried it won’t be a problem at all, but just check the recommended list of species/variants..
I have heavy clay soil (suitable for brickmaking) that needs aeration, so hugelkultur seems like the right approach. The clay was washed down from the nearby slope centuries ago, so there is no proper topsoil on my plot. This clay hardens like concrete during prolonged dry weather.
We have hugel beds and they do work well. We also cover as much as we can with seaweed or wood chips. Make friends with the guys who do tree service or clear the power lines. We get ours from a company that supplies cordwood. Much finer than a typical chipper. Nowadays you might have to pay for it but its well worth it.
If we are direct seeding we will cover the seeds with old row cover if the weather is very dry. You won’t have to water as much. I’ve heard of folks covering the seeds with a piece of wood until they germinate. This year in Maine we are lucky to be having consistent rain
Mulching with seaweed must be a great luxury in terms of various micro nutrients-minerals. I recall from Virginia beaches to my surprise almost no (civ)trash-litter on the shores, not sure about more towards north, NY and New England in general..
Perhaps being an effect of prevailing weather patterns and sea-ocean currents..
I use some covering white non-wowen sheets to suppress evaporation, too.
Finally, this night some light rain came. They forecast more moisture next days, until then I continue watering.
Strawberries are sensitive to heavy clay soil. I found this Darselect variety, which does well in clay. Here it is today on one of my old non-hügel beds.
https://ibb.co/fG03Bc7L
Remember that conspiracy theory that said North Carolina’s Appalachian region was washed out by weather modification technology in order to make the area’s lithium resources available?
No, I didn’t think much of that one either. It looked to me like a perfectly natural unlucky hurricane. Only a flat earther would have suspected anything untoward was afoot.
But, low and behold, less than two years later—doesn’t time fly?—”A new report released by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has just confirmed that the Appalachian Mountains are sitting on a massive, previously undiscovered lithium deposit worth an estimated $64 billion.”
Nudge nudge, wink wink, say no more, squire!
“While lithium mining is a known industry in the region, this discovery is different. For decades, the focus was centered on the Kings Mountain site in Cleveland County, which has been dormant since the 1980s. But this new USGS assessment identifies a massive concentration of lithium-rich pegmatite stretching far beyond the old mines, with much of it located in the very areas of Western North Carolina that were devastated by Hurricane Helene.”
https://www.charlottestories.com/usgs-announces-64b-in-previously-undiscovered-lithium-under-hurricane-helenes-rubble/#google_vignette
Denmark’s EV Sales Just Went Nuclear — 96% of Private Buyers Chose Electric
Well, it’s a fairly small and remarkably flat country. And they do have a lot of offshore wind turbines. So it makes a certain amount of sense.
Denmark is exactly the kind of country that can execute mass EV usage easily. My country, Canada, with it’s enormous distances is having a hard time of it.
Mountains, highways moving at 120km/h and -40c at times all but make EVs not worth the time.
Each of those cuts down the range by ~20%, and you want to leave 20% of the battery.
They are not ready for Canada. In town, sure.
The best we can hope for on the way down the energy ladder are what was in Red China during Chairman Mao…cheap bicycles and radio…if you owned both you were labeled rich
Indeed, and in this context e-bicycle with small sub ~1kWh sized battery puts it all under completely different context ( vs carz of 40->60->100kWhs needed sized batt pack ) and related charging (sized)needs for it… within the (grid)economy.
If they can be charged when electricity s available, that is a plus.
If they are from China, they are remarkably cheap, thanks to a huge amount of built in subsidies.
Well, as discussed previously the pricing of an serious EV can’t ( and isn’t) that cheaper vs local or other (KR/JAP) production. These are ephemeral ~15% comparative discounts in the end. From now on, the trick is elsewhere: you likely get better tech( newer/next gen batt chem.) vs the legacy manuf options etc.
Though it tends to wide price-wise a little bit on the more mid-lux brands spectrum only.. And here you have to wait few yrs as some (~token)features say of TSLA or some eurobrands are still more luxurious.. , but the CHN is almost there, it’s question of few years, say just only one model cycle ~4-7yrs to completely match and leapfrog the old brands in all price segments for ever.. Mind you lot of W designers and technicians scooped by the CHN for this goal.. , so this is a classic whole spectrum domination smack down.
Not sure this has been posted or debated recently..
Seems NOW evolving beyond the old (stale) game of good/bad cop narrative luke-warm tiddly warnings. Basically, the message is formulated here as past [ + .5k yrs series of WEuropean outbound wars ] resulting in piles of ” ours ” dead people has been enough. Now we are about to terminate this threat vector for good, still likely by conventional-yet strategic equivalent response first, but if not responded then full annihilation of this thread in the next followed-up step. That’s coming from supposedly self-described former ( cultural ) Eurofile, lol.
Transcript/transl :
https://www.irishsun.com/news/279012237/the-eu-has-gone-mad-it-must-be-stopped-says-sergey-karaganov
This is a Russian speaker saying that Western Europe has long been a source of conflict and it must now be stopped.
Some excerpts:
a world war has begun. It is being waged in Europe, largely by Western Europeans, whilst the United States of America, together with Israel, has begun to destabilize southern Eurasia.
Russia will retaliate against European countries making drones used by Ukraine to attack oil and other facilities within Russia:
Sergey Shoigu, in particular, stated that there are legitimate targets on EU territory, and that the Ministry of Defense has published a list of the locations where these drones are being manufactured.
Russia will first retaliate using conventional bombs. It does not want to use nuclear weapons, but will keep that option available if conventional weapons fail.
The EU’s elites are mad; they have completely degenerated intellectually. And on top of that, they are not afraid of us. We need them to truly fear us; we need to instill terror in them.
IRAN AGREES TO TRANSFER ITS 60% ENRICHED URANIUM STOCKPILE TO AN AS-YET UNIDENTIFIED THIRD COUNTRY — ISRAELI CHANNEL 12 ; Crap stuff everywhere .
https://x.com/Sino_Market/status/2052283919568191835/photo/1
You’re really swallowing this BS huh?
Comments claim this is false. The idea is intended to manipulate oil prices down.
The scum of the earth , like the ancestors of the late Dr. Firth or Peter Cassidy, lived like this
https://youtube.com/shorts/fU-eKFa0BiI?si=_YOIM6E7jPeCES_D
Samuel Luke Fildes, who did not use his first name, was hardly a scum; his grandmother was a rather well known activitist at the time and because his father was a wastrel, he was raised by his famous grandmother.
The widower sees one of his children die. The oldest daughter, the ‘woman of the house’, sobs while the little ones do not know what is happening.
Dhances are one of the girls will meet jack the Ripper, the boy gets killed by the Boers, and the remaining daughters either marrying hopeless losers like their fathers or become prostitues.
Compare that with Fildes’ most famous painting, the Doctor
https://youtube.com/shorts/BfV3YD6waJA?si=YQ01gT69Z-Kg2kMK
The home is Fildes’ own home. It was based upon an incident when one of his sons died and he was wealthy enough to hold the doctor at home until the child died.
The lives of the worthy and the unworthy differed that far before Chucky and his 200/400 scums of the earth ‘did their duty’.
People like Firth and Cassidy, who would have lived like the poor, instead sneaked into higher positions and I only recall their endless boasting of the merits of the British Empire, in which they would have no place on it before 1914, or one outlandish idea after another which are impractical.
After the massive deprivation following this middle east war, which is now too late to reverse even if the war somehow ends tomorrow, the worthy and the unworthy will be separated again and this time the division will be eternal.
Quite, Kulm. I think you have a valid point. “The affluence is over,” as M. Macron said to a tramp lying in a Parisian street in a cartoon I saw a while back. When there’s not enough to go around, the strong and rich will take as much as they can get away with, leaving the weak and poor to fight over whatever crumbs remain. Whether the aristocratic old rich can grab enough or whether some newer financial or techno elite will vacuum it all up or a dictator will lord it over everyone else remains to be seen.
Incidentally, the phrase “scum of the earth” does not currently have a formal plural form. Because “scum” is an uncountable or collective noun in this context, the phrase remains the same regardless of whether it refers to one person or more than one or to groups of people or even to people collectively: “That guy is the scum of the earth.” “Politicians are the scum of the earth.”
You may start a new trend with your usage of “scums of the earth” though, as Scott Adams did with “win bigly.”
Among my many vices, I am an unashamed Kinks fan. And over 50 years ago now, the Kinks recorded an enchanting song entitled “Scum of the Earth.” It comes from the album Preservation Act II and is sung by the character Mr. Flash, a gangster from the slums who has worked his way up to achieve ultimate power as the ruler of the nation, as a rebuke to his critics, who call him the scum of the earth and the scab of the nation.
You’ll probably hate it anyway, but I will note it is performed in the style of a Victorian music hall melodrama song, the very sort of thing Chucky’s scum might have enjoyed on a Saturday evening back in Blighty while on leave from the front.
I called them scums since I am not as polite as the victorians.
They enjoyed the material wealth for 120 years and their time is up
A horror story which will dwarf everything which existed before will engulf the world in the winter of 2026
But the richer people will retreat to their fortresses and stay away from the horrors
Alfred, Lord Tennyson traveled Ireland in a specially designed carriage so he would not have to see the dead and dying, which he did NOT consider to be humans
That kind of attitude will return
you are quite right kulm—those times will return…..but with one very big difference…
the starving irish left to populate america—which at the time was considered to be empty, and ‘available’….together with many other ’empty’ lands around the world.—-america delivered a new ‘wealth-burst’ to the world.—we have now burned that..
the difference now, is that there are no more empty lands to deliver sustenance, so ultimately there is no real refuge for the rich.. (they just dont know that yet).
Except, the Americas are bit less overly crowded that some of the rest of the world. Perhaps the huge oceans can keep too many more from coming over from the “Old World” to the “New World,” with some of the same idea as in the past.
in one sense the US isnt ‘crowded’ but in another sense it is.
the basis of the US economic system is ‘extractive’—ie extract as much as possible, as fast as possible, for the maximum profit.
through extensive machine farming/production, that profit goes to a relatively small group of landowners—just as it did in Ireland in 1840—-Ireland was exporting food during the famine, only certain areas suffered famine.
land in the usa is not available for food support for everyone—the terminal obsession with ‘capitalism’ sees to that…. or greed as might be better described….
the same was true in ireland in 1840—greed allowed people to starve to death—the current US government seems to have much the same attitude in many respects.
all the available land is occupied, pretty much everywhere, because we are using the products of the land to create wealth, not to feed people.
Not many people will have today’s luxuries over the long term, I agree.
After a storm yesterday evening, our electricity was out for about 11 hours. We don’t yet have our usual internet access. I am accessing the internet through a hot spot from my phone, indirectly using the phone lines. Losing electricity for even a few hours makes a person see how different life would be without electricity.
I feel for you. Gail. I hope they get the power up and running soon. On the upside, this will give you more time for weeding!
One time about ten years ago, a flooded river submerged our local substation and our area was without power for a week in the late summertime. Being rural, we cooked and heated water over a wood fire in the garden.
Of course, I couldn’t do any work. But I’ve been very fortunate that these sort of disruptions have only happened to me when business was quiet. The biggest problem was trying to keep the contents of the freezer from going off.
Kplr says only 40% of capacity through the gulf 12 months from now
https://x.com/aeberman12/status/2052220158291144912?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
The market is nuts . It is moved by a post from Barak Ravid of Axios ( ex IDF) . He has seven times said ” war on ” and “war off ” and moved the markets . Now just in .
” Recent news from the last 10 minutes:
MS NOW: Two Pakistani officials in Islamabad, familiar with the U.S.-Iran talks, expect Iran to submit a revised proposal to end the war by this weekend.
Al Arabiya(citing Channel 12): Israel is reportedly preparing to announce the breakdown of negotiations with Iran.
Al Hadath: The Israeli Defense Minister stated they may soon need to take action again to achieve their objectives in Iran.
Is this a march of idiots or what? I guess they were worried you guys might be bored after the 48 hours of silence.
As you already know, every single one of them is a moron. It’s beyond pathetic 🤮
Axios you say. Ghalibaf was mocking them and their split from reality yesterday.
“Operation Trust Me Bro failed. Now back to routine with Operation Fauxios”
https://x.com/mb_ghalibaf/status/2052137763877568532?s=20
Taken from
https://english.almanar.com.lb/article/67372/
They are getting their job done. Oil traders are scared to go long
if we don’t find a cheap renewable resource to run the planet then 8 billion people will be reduced to zero people that is the nature of the problem and that is why I think natural hydrogen is the solution that we should be looking at.the storage problem for natural hydrogen is of course a problem that is why we have to think about just tapping into the natural hydrogen and running a city off of it.we need to forget about the way we do things such as trade and think more about survival of the human race.
looks like the elders choose “old fashion” way.
actually, I don’t think anyone had any choice, which makes it a “Force Marjorie”.
The old fashioned way sounds good i wonder what sorts of entertainment lies in store for us in the good old days we had the temperance league and the prohibition we shall see what is in store for us.
There are many numbers between 8 billion and zero.
Rupert Murdoch will be chuffed to have outlived Ted Turner, but sad to have seen the last of one of the few people who could play the game on his level. Now Ted is gone, who else is going to push Rupert on to ever greater heights of cable news excellence?
(It’s alright, I know he’s retired now.)
Humans are big eaters, like cockroaches, and the same prime directive…
For most of my adult life I’ve been warning the same, and with the same response…on deaf ears…
I can tell you that even in China the big eaters will find a way to pop out my chillins….
But all people want their own children to live to maturity. A major change was antibiotics and other medical advances have allowed more children to live to maturity.
Birth rates have gone down but longer life expectancies has kept population rising.
when he reached his first million, and then his first billion, at no point did turner stop and declare ‘enough’…
although he did give away a billion.
instead he just carried on converting the resources of our planet into cash—for no better reason than he could—and did.
I don’t know what Ted did on his weekends, Norman. Or how much he personally consumed. You’d have to ask Jane Fonda about that.
But I do know he bought up a lot of land for the purpose of saving it from developments such as mining and industrial agriculture, and he spent a lot of effort conserving bison to ensure that they wouldn’t become extinct.
You are quite the communist, aren’t you? To each according to his needs. And you are beginning to sound like Jesus too.
As Jesus started on his way, a man ran up to him and fell on his knees before him. “Good teacher,” he asked, “what must I do to inherit eternal life?”
“Why do you call me good?” Jesus answered. “No one is good—except God alone. You know the commandments: ‘You shall not murder, you shall not commit adultery, you shall not steal, you shall not give false testimony, you shall not defraud, honor your father and mother.’ ”
“Teacher,” he declared, “all these I have kept since I was a boy.” Jesus looked at him and loved him. “One thing you lack,” he said. “Go, sell everything you have and give to the poor, and you will have treasure in heaven. Then come, follow me.”
At this the man’s face fell. He went away sad, because he had great wealth. Jesus looked around and said to his disciples, “How hard it is for the rich to enter the kingdom of God!”
The disciples were amazed at his words. But Jesus said again, “Children, how hard it is to enter the kingdom of God! It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for someone who is rich to enter the kingdom of God.”
You have more than enough yourself, Norman. At what point are you going to stop and say, “Enough! I don’t need my Prudential pension? or “I don’t need another new car”?
Ted’s billions are no different from your pension or your car, Norman. They consist of property (stuff) and mostly paper assets sitting in the bank or in stock and bond portfolios. If Ted didn’t own them, somebody else would, and now somebody else does.
I don’t suppose Ted was like Ken Dodd, squirreling away his money as cash in a suitcase in the attic. For one thing, it would have to be a huge suitcase.
Verily I say unto thee, Norman, thou art more of a Christian and more of a Communist than thou might realize. There’s also a bit of Humphrey Bogart in you.
He took care of the buffaloes.
I wonder how many buffaloes Norman has taken care of?
If it comes down to a choice between buy a new electric car and take care of the buffaloes, we all know where Norman’s sediments lie.
JMG’s latest: “Companions on the Road: A Retrospective”
https://ecosophia.net/companions-on-the-road-a-retrospective/
Excerpt: I began posting pieces on the future of industrial civilization, focusing especially on peak oil. For the sake of those who weren’t around back then, I should probably explain that those two words are shorthand for “the global peak of conventional petroleum production,” which took place in 2005 and was already starting to roil the global economy. Some people back then insisted that the world would shift smoothly to renewable energy, nuclear power, or some combination of the two. Others insisted that industrial society deprived of oil would plunge to sudden ruin, with or without a bunch of plucky survivors to mug the camera while the final credits rolled. I rejected both these claims
the gradual slippage that marks the end of one era and the slow rise of another. Nor has that process ended in our time. Quite the contrary, there are good reasons to think that the slippage may be picking up speed around us right now, and another assortment of things that used to count as normal will be going away forever.
I plan on writing about that in the months immediately ahead. For reasons we’ll discuss in detail, the predicaments of resource depletion and rising resource costs that held center stage in the early years of my blogging career are still live issues now, and are likely to become even more pertinent in the years immediately ahead. As I predicted quite a few years ago, we’re seeing another effort to market the white-elephant technology of nuclear fission; a great deal of wealth is about to be poured down that glow-in-the-dark rathole, and various other desperate long shots such as fusion are getting similar treatment. As I also predicted quite a few years ago, the fracking “miracle” is running on fumes at this point, and geopolitics and resource economics are being twisted into pretzel shapes to keep some semblance of oil flowing no matter what.
Thanks! We will have to watch for his posts.
JMG reminds me a lot of Norman Pagett. Both are obsessed with telling everyone how “I said this years ago” and “I was right.” The world may be going up in flames or down in flames, but in the end It’s all about them.
I have a request for all of us, please don’t tell us all how you were right about everything; tell us how you were wrong. Give us some examples of predictions you made that panned out different.
Well I don’t expect humility, but what about some old dishonest modesty?
Stuff dishonest modesty. I like me. Who do YOU like, Tim?
I never like your song choices, though. Country, country rock – dreary? 🙁
I think Carley was labelled as “easy listening” or “singer/songwriter” or “contemporary” in the old days, but Wikipedia says she’s “soft pop – soft rock – folk.” I can’t say I can hear her as very folky.
As we say in England, there’s no accounting for taste. And there’s no reason why you should share my likes and dislikes. Anyway, I don’t usually post them for pure entertainment, but to underline a point, and I don’t necessarily like ’em myself.
The point this time was to underline that people who like to boast about all the times they were right would do well to be a bit more modest, because at the end of the day they are only fooling themselves.
If you’ll give me a list of songs or artists or genres you do like, I will try to bear it in mind in future.
Who do I like? You mean, as I go through life? Depends on how you define “like”.
I like most people I meet most of the time. Here on OWF I like all our regular and semi-regular commentators, including your good self, based on what I read from them. I don’t think we have any truly despicable people here these days, do we? But how many of us are actually bots? And should we like people any less if we discover that they are not people after all?
Or do you mean, who do I like musically?
It varies, or course, as I tend to go onto certain artists for a while, then go off them for a while, and then go back to them.
Recently, I’ve been obsessed with Melanie’s album Crazy Love. I can listen to it all day long. Although the artist herself complained that some of the arrangements were a bit “cheesy.”
Here’s the title song. Introverts, empaths, and the more emotionally sensitive among us who are easily bruised by having to deal with the outside world with all its terrors will appreciate it. But Melanie is not for the riffraff, who will scoff and say, “Crap!” They give this precious treasure away for free on YouTube these days, and the riffraff still say “Crap!” No wonder Kulm calls them “the scums of the earth” Also, the words are not as import for me as the voice, the music, and the passion she puts into the performance.
There is no emptiness
Here in my emptiness
Where I drink my fill and I take it in
I turn the handle of the door
Outward
And “Hello everyone”
I’m fine
And how are you
My desperation
What a crazy love
On the wild ride dove
It’s a heart grown strong
From too many loves gone wrong
On those wild ride nights
With the sad, sad song
What a crazy love
We live in
Tim, my musical tastes are eclectic, but do not usually include folk or folk rock, country or country rock, soul, blues or rap. Easier to say what I do NOT like. Acoustic guitar on its own is too basic for me. I prefer the jazz scale to the blues scale in songs, but I do not like jazz proper and definitely not “swing”. I like mellifluous sounds, keyboards definitely, some sax is nice too, and ambient synthesiser appeals to my ethereal, dreamy and introverted side.
Your Melanie song has a lot going for it, nonetheless (backing music, singing), but still I’d gently say, “Not enough melody, Melanie!”
No need to tailor your song video postings to my taste, anyway. Be your authentic self, Tim.
“I like me. Who do YOU like?” was just me remembering a satirical sketch I wrote in the 1990s. I used to write sketches about people at work and hand them out privately. One feature was a spoof “Letters to the Editor”. Example: “Dear Ed, I like me. Who do you like?” – supposedly sent by one of our account managers called Tony. Nice bloke, very debonair looks but knew it, so a bit conceited, but not in a bad way. So his colleagues got the joke immediately.
Here I’ll post a quiet song for you by Englishman Alan Price that you may like, though he lays on the American accent a bit too strong. It’s from the film “O Lucky Man!”, a slightly weird subpar British film, so don’t waste your time on it. The film was supposedly a follow-up to the superb “If…” (1968) but was totally different and a lame semi-comedy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TR0IhDu-kIA
Alan Price – Poor People
Poor People sounds like it should be on Kulm’s jukebox!
Poor people are poor people
And they don’t understand
A man’s got to make whatever he wants
And take it with his own hands
Poor people stay poor people
And they never get to see
Someone’s got to win in the human race
If it isn’t you, then it has to be me
So smile while you’re makin’ it
Laugh while you’re takin’ it
Even though you’re fakin’ it
Nobody’s gonna know
Nobody’s gonna know
I concede, or admit, or declare, that you have excellent taste! Of course, I’m familiar with Alan Price, and I just checked and discovered he’s still alive at 84.
He arranged the organ intro for the Animals’ House of the Rising Sun and used to hang around with Georgie Fame. I remember him doing Simon Smith and the Amazing Dancing Bear.
And he played at Ronnie Scott’s on the corner of Soho Square, where I’m told you could often find John Le Measurer in sitting at a table in a trance.
In 1975, Price was interviewed by Ray Hammond, and the subject turned to
Ronnie Scott’s.
Hammond: That’s it, and I remember the aggression frightening me. Now, I hadn’t come along as somebody to get a free drink or a sandwich, I came along to see you. It’s very rare in that kind of atmosphere, where you are more than a dot a hundred yards away. The aggression was terrifying.
Price: People have said that. The musicians wanted to play it, and they were talking. I did a song called ‘City Lights’, and it’s got a quiet intro, and if you’re not going to hear that you’re not going to get the rest of the song. All my stuff is quite dynamic, to say the least, which I think is important, and I got annoyed.
I’m not an entertainer. I’m just a guy who’s job is to sing and play, and no matter who I play for, if they’re not listening, if they’re not giving it back to me, then bollocks. My time is precious, I’ve got a lot of things to do before my time is over. If I’ve got the decency to get up there and play, you might have the decency to give me something back. If I don’t get that, you deserve everything you get.
Just because music’s music, it doesn’t just have to give you pleasure all the time — it’s got to make you think. I think about other artists, who don’t show it like I do, and they come off and you don’t know what they go through on stage, you don’t know what they go through when they’re travelling and going to gigs, and getting there and playing and getting no response.
I’m not carrying a flag for anyone, but I know what I think.
I remember seeing the posters for O Lucky Man, but I never saw the film. Truth be told, after seeing A Clockwork Orange, it put right off of Malcolm McDowell. “He’s bonkers!” I thought to myself. “I’m not seeing anything with him in it again.”
https://x.com/thatguy_is/status/2051964941968515370
@thesiriusreport
It appears the West has finally realised that Azerbaijan is selling Russian gas to the Europeans and at a premium to what they could have paid Russia directly.
Meanwhile the Europeans keep convincing themselves that they are sticking it to Moscow.
Nope. That has been likely part of wider agreement with Don earlier (Anchorage+), basically to sideline – suppress hotheads on remote in Eurolands, granting RU some of their energy-biz claims on the chessboard. It also included some deal with RU as in US phasing out of engagement in that Ukr thing, that’s why the famous scene in WH was largely authentic as that ~green comedian – turn leader genuinely and massively enraged Don as he came for uploading the changed script of ending that conflict home soon enough and instead refused to cooperate ..
The factions active ( and applied correction path ) in globo politics are partially revealed only in such brief upheaval moments of history, otherwise ~99% of time the msm provides only over-sanitized kiddie narratives..
Most likely, Don was served ( pushed ) from the ” home front ” with the int agenda only in piece-meal order action, so it’s doubtful he was anywhere near on the future Iran ( full regime )-toppling plan at that earlier time..
Or perhaps there was an ~internal US deal you let me perform the RU derisk maneuver first in exchange of your later VZ+Iran/.. projects.
Initially, the over-all ~Don-faction plan was most likely just to carve up the world among US, RU, CHN and few also runs before the incoming 2030s energy carnage. At some point and given the VZ swift-cheap success they finally green-lighted the pre-planned Iran thingy ass well, which broke not only into massive regional Gulfies ally blow-back, but likely erupted into more swift US decline accelerating path.
Yes, Don perhaps doubled-tripled family wealth net score momentarily, but the overall long term gain-bet will prove to be an illusion, besides we are not privy to tight-leash conditions which helped him out of previous series of bankruptcies. My point being a nominal billionaire, yet a prison of past deeds and new unruly circumstances..
Most likely, say even quite a few CHN peasants enjoyed way happier and less stressful lifetime in comparison..
I have my own view of what is happening. I am confused about what you are saying here.
Huh? You’re saying Russia isn’t supplying Europe via an intermediary – which, by the way, is verifiable – based on some hypothetical deal that may or may not have happened in Anchorage and certainly wasn’t honored?
LOL if this is true.
I simply mentioned that it was understood for some time already that oil&gas bought from various -stans is often technically sourced via the pre-existing pipeline network there from RU proper, i.e. repackaged only via invoice. Furthermore in some cases these indiv govs were onto the scheme [ on purpose ] and got their %cut from the extra priced deal on top of it ( aka even more serious ~scam vs EUboyz clients )..
And it was also likely part of wider discussions and deals with Don as related to winding down the Ukro-war..
Celia Farber writes about the latest cruise ship “hanta virus” scare:
I’m sorry to report that just found something that makes it clear to me that this is a full blown OP: The story’s first clear, unmistakeable crisis actor.
https://x.com/nypost/status/2051365409979265120?s=20
Said with forced choking against tears voice, and guilt inducing tones:
“We’re not just a story. We’re not just headlines. We’re people. People with families…”
(Unchanged since the AIDS OP: “We’re people. We’re dying.” etc.)
Whoever said people on cruise ships aren’t people? With families.
I detest irrational manipulation. The man chosen presents as a woman. (No disrespect to women, I mean only he lacks masculine dignity.)
Men, traditionally, do not seek public pity, choking back tears, while on a cruise ship off the coast of Cape Verde, strangely diagnosing the alleged insensitivities of strangers on land who may watch his video. (Picked up by propaganda fishwrap NY Post—another very bad sign.)
Of course he is American.
Nobody can persuade me this guy is not a crisis actor.
=====
Yes, Celia, that was my strong impression too. But I’m waiting for Norman’s confirmation on that one.
As we live in a finite world, with finite and not always abundant resources, it’s only a matter of time before our controllers lock us all down again. And based on recent history, it would so much easier for them to do so based on the pretext of a novel pathogen pandemic than on the lack of a mission-critical resource such as oil.
It is scare tactics again. There are many older passengers on cruise ships, particularly on the smaller cruise ships that visit parts of Europe and Asia. I have to believe that there are at least a few deaths among these older passengers, while the ships are sailing. It is the way the world works.
I don’t think this is a plandemic just check what the who has got to say and it ain’t much
The only thing infinite in this world is bullshit
crisis actors have been out of work since eddy left the building
hydrogen costs–to produce in energy terms—1.5 x the energy it delivers…
thats all you need to know about the ‘hydrogen economy’
There’s plenty of natural hydrogen in the Sun.
All we have to do is get a 93-million-mile-long gas pipe and pump it “up.”
It’s the kind of Job Elon should have sorted before breakfast!
Is it known or knowable what the pay is like for performance of this caliber?
you get the highest pay level for crisis acting if you are willing to do dead for real… (no faking)…
eddy told me that years ago…..
i think he was looking to start a crisis acting agency, and wanted recruits…
Interesting video. I agree that his words do not make a lot of sense. “For now….sob….I just ask for your understanding”. Who the heck is not sympathetic for some poor slob stuck on a cruise ship? Why does he need more understanding? It might be AI Tim, or it might just be the unraveling of manhood that has been pushed by the left. Wimpy men are the result.
Regardless, it seems a bit unreal.
Tim
It’s an election year!
Excellent! That’s what I call “thinking”!
I suppose that for a mid-term Election year, we only need a medium-level panic. The next big thing must be scheduled for early 2028.
On the [ timing angle ] – there has been great debate at Surplus in recent days about the UK situation, simply the place is ripe for new depth in political crisis + GBP crash any moment.. and that ricocheting into overall globo-market slump. The perceived instability ~trigger could be anything though, e.g. there are many speculations there will be massive mil. campaign spike on the Ukro front just starting after the May / Victory day parade in RU.. etc.
Also, when DaveInMegaYrs suddenly starts to bring forward doom by the decades, well then one also has to take it into account – as sort of natural forces forming their prediction lol..
”We’ve spent billions building server farms to memorize the internet. Now a small model, running locally on one graphics card, is starting to learn how reality actually works”?
https://x.com/AuroraMar1eL/status/2051648663257264467?s=20
We will have to wait and see whether this approach handles real problems.
The oil math .
https://www.hfir-ideas.com/p/the-oil-math-and-why-the-broader?hide_intro_popup=true
Project Freedom runs out of steam in 48 hours .
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/594414/project-freedom-has-been-paused-so-will-it-lead-to-a-diplomatic-breakthrough-or-reignite-war-with-iran
Oil went down because of project freedom and now that it’s paused, it’s down more.
Another market maneuver ?
S&P Global Energy published research on Tuesday May 5 2026 stating that even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, it will take seven months minimum to fully restore upstream production, with the energy crisis potentially stretching into 2027.
The market is not pricing this.
Brent futures are pricing political resolution at the May 14 Trump-Xi summit. Physical cargoes are pricing the customs enforcement architecture. Both are pricing the war. Neither is pricing the aftermath.
The Strait reopening is not the end of the crisis. The Strait reopening is the moment the second phase begins.
Output at Iranian fields and export flows from Iraqi and lower Gulf fields have been disrupted for sixty-six days. Refinery turnaround schedules across Asia are now misaligned. Insurance markets have repriced. Shadow fleet logistics have been substantially degraded by US Treasury sanctions. None of this rebuilds in days.
The political clock measures the distance to summit. The architectural clock measures the distance to functional supply restoration. The two clocks are not the same clock.
Even if Trump and Xi de-escalate on May 14, S&P says the energy crisis lasts another seven months at minimum.
The peace itself has a seven-month tail.
” BOMBSHELL. Saudi Arabia just posted a 126 billion riyal deficit in 90 days. That is 48% of total revenue.
In a single quarter Riyadh has burned through 76% of its entire annual deficit target. The official line was 165 billion for the full year. They hit it in 3 months. And Q1 was the easy quarter. ”
https://x.com/MENAUnleashed/status/2051682476146208852
What about Kuwait Bahrain that have zero revenue since the last two months ? I remember Armstrong saying something about the breakdown of the Saudi Riyal and USD peg coming under stress in the 3rd week of May .
Thanks for the updates Ravi
Great updates!
Thanks, Ravi!
Thank you, raviuppal4 for all your posts here
New Boss , new rules .
” An email sent by Persian Gulf Strait Authority to several shipping companies whose ships are stranded in the Gulf:
Instructions for passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Ships intending to pass through the Strait of Hormuz must email info@PGSA.ir.
The most important points considered in the transit mechanism:
1) Priority of payment in Iran’s national currency
2) Issuance of guarantees in Iranian banks
3) If a country caused damage to Iran in the recent war, it must first pay the damages before obtaining a passage permit. Countries that have sanctioned Iran or blocked Iran’s money are not allowed passage.
4) The correct title “Persian Gulf” must be written in all documents.
5) Non-compliance with the above will result in seizure and a fine of 20% of the cargo value. “
Interesting! Doesn’t look like ships headed for the US will be passing through any time soon.
The ever thoughtful Iranians are offering a delivery service, for those unfortunately stuck because of an unwarranted attack.
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/244281/Iran-offers-delivering-services-to-ships-in-Strait-of-Hormuz
Even offering spare parts.
They’ll probably need some Rial, but I’m sure the Iranians have already thought of that(bureau de change boats doing the rounds soon) and if they get food from the Iranians, they’ll eventually return home healthier.
6) bark like a dog when you apply. I have some 300 dollars in iranian money, I will hold onto them for a while now.
gangsta
If followed through eventually:
– massive spike in ~fake (3rd party stand-in) paper domiciles filed
x
blow back on over-all ~west/int institutions-agency reign throughout global and especially inside the ” ~3rd world ” settings, meant spill-over to everything incl. like already contested areas in legacy int law frameworks etc.
It is the financial crisis for other Middle Eastern oil producers that pushes toward ending the war.
It is good to have an estimate by an oil research group estimate of the minimum time the disruption will last.
From the link. This is how the article ends.
As the inventory cushion is eroded, demand reduction will be the next factor to balance the oil market. This is already happening. JP Morgan estimates approximately 4.3 million bpd of forced demand losses in April, mostly in Asian and African importing nations that lack refinery capacity and have run out of fuel regardless of price.
Inventory drawdowns and forced demand destruction have so far done the work of balancing near-term supply and demand. However, the inventory part of that equation is about to run out.
I think it partly explains why there has not been great concern so far. Partly, it has been inventories, keeping oil supply normal. And what shortfalls are hitting are expected to mostly expected to affect “Asian and African importing nations” first. Maybe the whole thing will get settled soon and the problem will go away seems to be the view of most.
Okay the ceasefire was the bridge and now we’re into the key change. America bargaining and Iran taking the initiative.
Marco Rubio appealing to a higher power in bargaining with the situation like a Grade A sociopath. What’s the over-under on when the depression sets in? Do sociopaths even get depressed?
https://youtube.com/shorts/78HrYttN0lY
Shale producers cut their production when prices were low. When prices are high, they ramp up production. Perhaps not enough to make a difference, but it helps.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/shale-giant-diamondback-boosting-oil-output-immediately-soaring-prices
Shale Giant Diamondback Is Boosting Oil Output “Immediately” On Soaring Prices
The company that operates in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico is pumping more than 520,000 barrels a day, 3% more than its original full-year guidance, and plans to sustains those levels, Chief Executive Officer Kaes Van’t Hof wrote in a letter to shareholders on Monday.
Of course, 3% if 520,000 is only 15,600 bpd, so it will not save the world.
🤣
pissing in the pool to make it salty . 🤣
hey that’s equal to 1,000 premium stripper wells lol
What is severely lacking is kerosene and jet fuel which tight oil lacks
Updated observation of the volume of flights passing over London: this suddenly increased to the pre-war, average 2025, level on Sunday – the day before the May ‘Bank Holiday’ – this declined considerably on Monday, and today one can barely hear a jet at all! As I type, nothing in the air, and it used to be deafening.
The end of our civilisation will be wonderfully quiet……
(Shops still fully-stocked with imported goods. Sudden 10-15% increase in quite a few food items in supermarkets).
I noticed in the Home Depot store where I shop for plants and fertilizer that the fertilizer display had been moved to the back. It had only a few higher-priced specialty products for home gardeners.
Previous years, fertilizer would have been up by the checkout counter, with several products on display to temp those buying plants.
Gail, it depends on the Store. I work in the Garden dept at my local Home Depot and we have different types of fertilizers down the main aisle and in the garden center. We always keep our fertilizer in the outside nursery along the rear of the nursery but during the spring we put the product in two places in the store.
Currently we have tons of fertilizer, though i’m guessing that might or will change in a few months. But knowing THD, they are probably anticipating the shortfall and ordering more before the squeeze and prices for the most part have been steady.
Some article I was reading flying would not recover now but sometime well into the future they are trying to develop sustainable aviation fuel but at the moment they can only ramp up .1 % compared to100% via fossil fuels so vegetable oil ain’t gonna cut it. We will just have to rely on rail and ships.The world is slowing down.The birds will rule the skies again.Yep I think we are heading back to the early 1900s way of life.
Guys here is a bit of investment advice I am currently invested in it even though the price has gone way down I have lost 60 % on my original small investment of a couple thousand dollars but I ain’t selling because I think it’s our only chance ; Natural Hydrogen or White Hydrogen. Think about it if planes and airlines are going into the dustbin of history and we are entering a different reality a slower paced way of life then Zepellins could make a comeback which could be powered by natural hydrogen gas. Just thought I’d let you guys and gals know the price is quite low at the moment because the science is new. Natural hydrogen is ready made hydrogen created under the earth over millions of years when water reacts with minerals deep under the earth it creates hydrogen gas so this could be our future cheap clean energy source to replace fossil fuels.Apparently Bill Gates has invested millions into it so it could be the answer to mankind’s survival.
Is it as abundant as natural gas? If not, how can we use it as a substitute power source?
Also, hydrogen is very difficult to contain. Its volume as a gas is way too high to use as a transportation fuel, and it has a reputation for explosions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fURATK5Yt30
Can you suggest this lucrative, once in a century business opportunity to MG, please?
er—–
zeppelins were lifted by hydrogen
they were –powered–by diesel motors…
just sayin…..
buoyed
oops by mistake I forgot about the diesel,regardless of that I still think that natural hydrogen has got a chance to replace fossil fuels and I’m not talking about green hydrogen this is white hydrogen you just need to research that norman.
Sounds a bit racist to me.
Still, I asked AI:
White hydrogen (or natural hydrogen) is a naturally occurring, clean-burning energy source produced underground, with estimated global reserves potentially holding up to 5.6 trillion tons, enough to meet global demand for centuries.
Now, where have we’ve heard that one before?
Significant reserves are currently under exploration worldwide, including a substantial find of up to 46 million tons in France’s Lorraine basin, potentially offering a low-cost alternative to green hydrogen.
I’m in. Where do I send my investment funds?
Looks like the next bubble to shear the sheeple, after the deflating AI one?
😶🌫️🐑✂️
birds have wings….
they can only continue to fly if they have access to sufficient energy input…
the same applies to us…
somethng that most people refuse to accept.
the same applies to us…?
You mean we have wings?
I suppose, in a manner of speaking, from a certain point of view, we do have wings in the form of airplanes.
But birds have solved the flight problem in a much more energy-efficient manner than people have. Some species can stay aloft for months at a time buoyed or lifted and wafted along by the wind.
Oh, for the wings, for the wings, of a dove….🎶
without an industrial level healthcare complex, your local physician will be able to offer little more practical help than a witch doctor.
which is stuff we all know, in basic terms, ie–keep clean and dont drink dirty water…
Thats more your very trivial imagination of something you haven’t ever met in practice – someone versed intraditional medicine – than the truth of it.
Of course the traditional practitioner had not access to modern machinery, and of course there are things you couldn’t do – x-ray, keeping blood and oxygen pumps upo on a comatose person – but the range of ailments and cures for a big mass of health problems is quite wide.
* and quite beyond what “we all know” on average here, that much is for sure.
I am often amazed at the childlike reduced imagination modern people have of the life of people thourgh the ages.
Very true! Many years ago I read how the Ancient Egyptians were highly advanced in medicine.
https://www.history.com/articles/ancient-egyptian-medicine-cancer-treatment
a breakdown of social structure will bring disruption—
to pick just one, the delivery of fresh water and removal of wastes—-ie, electricity and pumps.
the result of your toliet and taps not working will bring disease….
those diseases will be beyond the means of healthcare professionals—one of whom agreed with me when i suggested the above..
Humans living in crammed conditions without sanitation always brought the same.
Yes, said disruption is visible, from afar, in Gaza for example.
There is something to this argument, more than any vaccine or anti-biotic, it was mass scale sanitation that raised life expectancy and prevented diseases.
Well, you have to enlarge the envelope a bit.. then..
You are correct in the basal case, i.e. crammed megalopolis to semi-urban settings scale x overall crisis ( energy & fin ) point at the time.
While personal mitigation in less dense settlement provides more adaptation vector choices to curb these threads. There are entire subject books on how to treat it [ humanure ] etc.
Not a big surprise, but there are no new manufacturing jobs in the USA over the last 5 months. Healthcare is about all there is.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/manufacturing-is-the-biggest-net-loser-in-jobs-5-quarters-total/
We have a surplus of older people in poor health.
The health care industry i.e., health insurance companies, health care provider corporations ( how many hospitals or services like anesthesiology are being bought up by private equity?) big pharma, and medical technology are all part of a huge wealth extraction from the remaining working middle class and baby boomers who still have assets.
Eventually, as I predicted in my memoirs, people will be unable to afford insurance, whether through their employers or via individual family policies. But the big health care providers will lose their profitability if they lose the Cadillac commercial insurance revenue. Medicare, and especially Medicaid, do not pay enough for these health care provider corporations to be profitable.
There will be a tectonic struggle between insurers and providers unless of course they integrate to form one big insurer-provider corporation, in which case health care for especially high cost procedures and diseases will become limited.
The people may vote themselves for a government universal health care system, but that will be even worse. Eventually in a generation or two, it will be back to fee for service at your local physician office for just basic health care only.
“Eventually in a generation or two, it will be back to fee for service at your local physician office for just basic health care only.”
By that time, the United States will most likely have collapsed and entered the dustbin of failed Empires.