There have recently been many warnings about near-term oil shortages stemming from the conflict in Iran. Most analysts assume that shortages mean higher prices. As I will explain, the dynamics of a self-organizing economy suggest the opposite outcome — lower prices, deepening recession, and shortages of goods and services that have little to do with price.
Rather than high prices, my major concerns are recession and the disappearing availability of goods and services that we rely on. This might be similar to the empty shelves that many stores experienced in 2020 and 2021. There may also be new government restrictions, intended to work around the reduced oil supply in a way that will allow essential services to continue to operate normally. Oil prices are likely to fall below $40 per barrel, as they did in 2020 with Covid restrictions.
In this post, I will try to explain why this counterintuitive outcome — shortages leading to lower prices rather than higher — is what the self-organizing economy tends to produce. Along the way, I will look at the current state of oil reserves, why the conflict with Iran is unlikely to be quickly resolved, and what the price behavior of oil since February 28 tells us. I will also step back to consider the broader picture: why war can seem like a solution to struggling economies, and what the 2020 Covid experience might teach us about what lies ahead.
[1] Reserves of already-pumped US oil have dropped to concerningly low levels.
On June 17, President Trump said, “We will run out of reserves in about four weeks without a deal.” According to the article, we are not certain whether Trump intended to apply this statement to US or world emergency reserves.
Also, according to this recent video, the US’s largest tank farm seems to be very close to the minimum level at which crude oil can be withdrawn from its tanks. And, on June 23, MSN said, “America may see actual gasoline shortages by July 4.”
The already-pumped oil in storage is intended to be used as a buffer if there are variations in supply or demand. The reason that these buffers are falling low is because considerable oil from them has already been used to mitigate the shortfall in crude oil supply to date.
The shortfall in the supply of crude oil supply cannot be expected to disappear quickly. There has been considerable damage to infrastructure in Iran and elsewhere. It will take years rather than months for this to be repaired. In countries where oil production has been shut in, some wells are likely to produce less after being reopened following many months of closure. Furthermore, Iran has no incentive to completely reopen the shipping lanes, since keeping them potentially closed has the potential to raise oil prices per barrel. Higher oil prices would help the finances of Iran.
[2] Perhaps because of concern about low buffer supplies, the US has negotiated a deal with Iran that seems unfavorable to the US.
Information keeps coming out that indicates that Trump’s current Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is very favorable to Iran. It looks as if the MOU has been written as if Iran won the war. We are also seeing that other countries have begun acting as if Iran has indeed won the war. For example, on June 23, a joint statement was issued by Iran and Oman. The two countries seem to be co-operating in setting up the collection of funds from ships passing through the strait to cover insurance and other costs.
If we are dealing with a “done-deal,” and the US is coming out poorly, the level of conflict within the US is likely to rise. Many people will be angry with Trump for getting the US into the war to begin with. Unfortunately, there is likely close to nothing we can do about this situation.
[3] Trump or another leader cannot restart the war against Iran and expect to do any better.
A major problem is that the US has substantially depleted its ammunition supplies, and it will take years to replenish them. While the US could perhaps launch a short attack, it would not be able to carry out a sustained campaign for very long.
Another issue is that the armaments that the US has stocked to date are designed to be used in a different type of war than the one that is being fought today. The US needs drones and close-by locations from which to launch them. Iran damaged most of the US’s bases that are close to Iran in the conflict that began on February 28. Without substantial rebuilding, the US has no functioning bases close to Iran from which to launch such drones.
Restocking armaments will likely take several years, especially if new types are needed. Adding to the difficulties of the US is the fact that China has been the primary source of many critical minerals used in the production of high-tech goods and ammunition. In recent years, China has restricted access to these critical elements. The US is now developing mines for some of these minerals, but setting up entire supply chains will take years.
[4] One motivation for attacking Iran might have been to raise oil prices to a higher level.
Based on their models, economists typically reach the conclusion that inadequate oil supplies will lead to high oil prices. It is likely that President Trump and his advisors believed that inadequate oil supply would lead to high oil prices.
Some analysts, including me, would argue that the models of economists are very inadequate; they give misleading indications by leaving out the complex self-organizing nature of the economy.
Higher oil prices are sometimes desirable because they encourage more oil extraction. For example, higher prices allow marginal wells to continue to be profitable longer. They can also make a new, higher-cost source, such as tight oil from shale, attractive for drilling. Looking ahead, higher oil prices would make it easier to get oil company support for ramping up oil production in Venezuela.
Figures 2 and 3 show the connection that higher oil prices seem to have had in encouraging tight oil extraction from shale. Figure 2 shows historical oil prices, adjusted for inflation. Noted on this figure is my view of whether prices were high enough to encourage extraction from more difficult locations.
Figure 2 indicates that prices started to run up in the 2003 to 2008 era, when China started ramping up its manufacturing, and thus its demand for oil. In this same timeframe, there was also a growing demand for housing in the US, thanks to very liberal underwriting standards for home mortgage loans. Thus, the total demand growth for oil was very high.
Figure 3 shows that production of tight oil started ramping up in 2009, after oil prices had been rising for several years.
Another factor in the growth of tight oil production was the availability of cheap credit after 2008, but this has tended to disappear since 2021. Now, tight oil production seems to be leveling out, leading to rising concerns that tight oil production may soon decline, especially if credit is no longer cheap. Having higher oil prices might help postpone the decline of tight oil.
[5] Oil prices since the war started on February 28 have not bounced very high. Recently, they have tended to fall back, close to their pre-war level.
The first thing to note is the fact that the prices on Figure 4 do not reflect the actual prices to the consumer, which have often been greater. The cost of transporting oil has jumped in many markets, but this higher transport cost is not reflected in the “West Texas Intermediate” price of oil, displayed in this chart. These higher prices at the pump have led some of the more price-sensitive buyers of oil products to cut back on their purchases.
Second, there is a lag issue regarding how soon the impact of missing supply actually hits the market. The slow transit time of oil from the Middle East to markets means that the actual disruption of supplies did not hit until at least 50 days later. If crude oil first needs to be processed by local refineries and then the oil products shipped to customers, the lag would be even greater–perhaps 75 or 100 days in total. Thus, much of the price increase to date may be based on a fear of shortages, rather than on an actual shortage issue.
Third, there have been some changes that impact oil “demand.” Some consumers have been told by their governments to work from home or otherwise restrict their driving to save on oil consumption. Also, some flight schedules have been cut back. Recently, Ukraine has been targeting some of the oil infrastructure of Russia, leading to reduced gasoline and diesel availability within that country. All these issues have tended to reduce the demand for oil. The lower demand acts to hold down oil prices.
A fourth issue has to do with worldwide economic conditions before February 28. Even before the war, much of the world was in close to a recessionary situation. There were very many low wage earners who could not afford much beyond the basic necessities of life. Even a small run-up in oil prices tends to affect food prices because oil is often used in farming operations and food is usually transported to market using oil. With higher food prices, poor consumers were forced to cut back on other purchases. This recessionary dynamic can be expected to get worse if oil prices inch up even a bit.
[6] I expect that oil prices will continue to remain relatively low, or they will only briefly rise to high ($150+) levels, even if there are actual oil supply disruptions.
I expect that the dynamics we have been seeing since February 28 will continue, and may intensify. Governments will add new restrictions that will reduce oil use. Airlines will go bankrupt, or they will reduce flight schedules. Recession will become even more of a problem. These issues will tend to reduce usage without raising prices.
[7] What we may see more of is broken supply chains.
There will be more signs in grocery stores and in home product stores saying, “This product is temporarily unavailable.” Car repair shops may tell us that a required replacement part will not be available for several months. Physicians may tell us that a medicine or chemotherapy drug that they normally use is, at this time, unavailable.
[8] The operation of the economy depends on an adequate supply of many kinds of energy. If oil supply is reduced, an economy needs to shrink to a smaller size to match. This is what leads to recession.
One reason for the above observation is that we know that our own vehicles will not operate without whatever fuel they are designed for. This is clearly also true for all the delivery trucks in the world, and for farm machinery and for ships that transport goods across the ocean. With less fuel, fewer trips of many kinds will be made. Workers will be laid off. This dynamic sounds a lot like recession.
The expected lower world oil supply in the near future is not an issue that can easily be resolved. We are already seeing that even with a supposed settlement, disruption in oil supplies seems likely to continue and even to worsen, as the various limits on buffer supplies are reached. Unfortunately, we cannot expect the situation to be completely fixed for several years.
Furthermore, the economy is facing even more disruptions than I have outlined above. For instance, Ukraine has been disrupting Russia’s oil infrastructure with drone attacks. There have also been disruptions to sulfur exports from the Middle East. Sulfur is used in many ways, including as a fertilizer and in the production of sulfuric acid, which is used in the mining of uranium, among other things. In addition, there have been disruptions to liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from Qatar. The lack of these important products will tend to further damage supply chains and lead the economy deeper into recession.
[9] We are ultimately dealing with multiple not-enough-to-go-around scenarios. This situation will tend to increase conflict in the world.
The dynamic we are dealing with is similar to that in the game of Musical Chairs.
The game of musical chairs is played in rounds. Players walk around the edge of a circle of chairs while music is played. When the music starts, the number of players is equal to the number of chairs. In each round, one chair is removed. The music plays and then suddenly stops. The players must then scramble to grab a chair. Since the number of chairs is now one fewer than the number of players, small fights can ensue.
The problem is basically, “Not enough to go around.” War often sounds like a reasonable solution to leaders.
[10] War can seem like a solution.
Strangely enough, war has multiple advantages to economies that are suffering from difficulties related to low commodity prices and, indirectly, low wages in related industries. One commodity is food. If food prices are too low, farmers will be unhappy that their earnings are low. They may stop farming and try to make a living from putting their land into a land bank and working elsewhere.
If oil prices are low, the oil industry can experience pockets of low wages. There have recently been reports of lockouts and strikes in the oil industry. I would expect these labor actions to be most prevalent where oil fields are depleted.
If a government announces a war, it looks like the government is “doing something” about the country’s problems. There is suddenly employment, either as a soldier, or in building armaments. GDP tends to rise because the war leads to a larger share of the population working. The war can be used to justify the additional government debt needed to hire the additional workers. What convinced me of this relationship was this chart, showing a huge increase in US GDP during World War II:
Looking closely at the chart, it is also possible to see GDP increases during the Korean War (1950-1953) and between the time the US entered the Vietnam War, deploying up to 549,000 soldiers, and the time the US greatly reduced its forces there (1964-1969).
I think much of Europe is now in a situation in which war looks like a solution. Russia may also be in such a situation. Ukraine, with its problems, is also in such a situation.
[11] There may be lessons to be learned from the 2020 Covid restrictions and the ultra-low oil prices that resulted then.
Back in 2019, many people in the financial world were concerned about the economy. In 2019, the US faced significant financial issues, including a budget deficit that increased by $205.4 billion to $984.4 billion. In addition, in September 2019, there was a spike in the interest rates financial institutions charge each other (repo rates) that concerned those who followed financial markets closely.
What took place in 2020 seemed to some of us to be close to miraculous. The strange actions related to Covid greatly brought down the price of oil. Covid also provided an excuse to give money to households. US government debt was able to increase greatly, and, somehow, the world economic system has held together until now. Financial problems were “kicked down the road” a while longer. Without the pressure of financial problems, the economy could work on ways to mitigate the energy problem a while longer.
Economies are self-organizing systems, just as the human body is a self-organizing system. Both are powered by “energy dissipation.” Human bodies tend to heal wounds, like magic. Economists talk about an “invisible hand” being helpful to economies. In situations where the healing of economies does occur, low oil prices can be part of the magic.
[12] What might be ahead?
We are again in a period when the US and world economies are on shaky ground. Debt levels are high, and conflict levels are high.
As I have discussed in this post, I expect the general trend in oil prices will be down, rather than up. The major reason why oil prices are likely to be low is because, with the damage done in the Middle East, the quantity of oil supply available to the world is starting to shrink. As a result of the low oil quantity, the world will produce fewer goods and services. This is close to the definition of recession! (Also, on Figure 1, this is why we expect Wile E. Coyote to fall down, rather than to float up, when his support disappears.)
I expect as oil product shortages hit, local leaders will figure out ways to mitigate the oil bottleneck that the world now seems to be facing. Local leaders will enact rules that make certain that whatever oil is available is used to maintain essential services. It will not be surprising if local leaders keep people at home, using one excuse or another, to keep oil demand in line with the quantity of oil that is available. This is a big part of why oil prices will tend to be low, in a manner similar to 2020.
With low oil prices, I expect that inflation will be low. Pressure to keep raising interest rates will disappear. The economy will not be doing well, but the issue will not be high interest rates preventing new investment.
In my opinion, the world economy needs to reorganize with shorter supply lines to get through the oil “tight spot” that the economy is in. If supply lines could mostly be kept within the areas marked on Figure 7, it seems like a significant amount of transport fuel could be saved.
The conflict with Iran doesn’t seem to be ending well for the US, but there might be a silver lining. The pain the US is experiencing in Iran will hopefully teach the US to stay out of issues in the Eastern Hemisphere. If a conflict with Iran is to ramp up again in the near future, I expect that it will be a European group that will be getting involved, not the US.
We don’t know quite what is ahead, but the experience in 2020 shows that a strange confluence of events leading to low oil prices can actually be helpful. Let us hope that a similar result will be possible this time.
The intermission appears to have ended. The US has re imposed sanctions and started bombing, whilst their mini me bombs Lebanon.
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/us-aggression-targets-iran–israeli-bombing-south-lebanon-re
Ghalibaf, following a noticeable trend, isn’t being coy.
“The final step of revenge against the arrogant will be realised with the liberation of Holy al-Quds.”
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/245985/Iran-speaker-vows-punishment-for-Leader-s-killers
Anyone that bet on mid July will be feeling more confident(and a bit disappointed).
Oh dear! It is difficult to see how this can go on for long. Everyone runs short of ammunition and things to bomb.
Or until we trip into a worldwide depression…yes, it could occur with all the missteps someone will cry “Uncle” per Trump
I think that was a common saying at the beginning of ww2 and ww1. And I think the beginning of Russia/ Ukraine war.
Interesting! Somehow, the war goes on longer than anyone might expect.
Russia has accepted the destruction of its energy autonomy. It is unwilling to create a thermonuclear exchange and end the world. It has conclusively proven its sanity. Russia is now a refined petroleum importer. Nice little niche for India.
Ukraine will encounter the same problem as Russia. Nothing critical to destroy.. stalemate.
Who are the nations that are societies with reduction in energy consumption? Western Europe
Russia
China
Very very soon USA
Who are the nations embracing socialism or with a history of socialism?
Western Europe
Russia
China
Very very soon USA.
Who are the nations that will experience Soviet satellite levels of standard of living?
Western Europe
Russia
China
Very very soon USA
Not because of this or that ridiculous political meme but because of physicality.
Who are the nations that will fly the exact same banners of the Soviet satellites declaring exclusive establishment of social justice?
Western Europe
Russia
China
Very very soon the USA
Homogenization via energy cessation
Continuos low to medium
level conflict with increasingly powerful affordable military technology.
The theme of 1984 not as a abstract but as a observed reality.
One of the great questions has been a answered.
Industrial civilization will not burn out.
It will fade away.
Hopefully this fabulous sphere we inhabit will provide a bit more water and perhaps be a bit more chilly?
Every creature on this planet is a beggar.
A fabulously wealthy beggar.
Especially good points:
“Ukraine will encounter the same problem as Russia. Nothing critical to destroy.. stalemate.”
“Industrial civilization will not burn out.
It will fade away.”
I am afraid you could be correct. But everyone would hope not.
” .. a bit more CHILLY ? ”
This very year one could easily found the proverbial inner Greek, Roman or Persian within himself.. Whomever actually one of them brought [ the Apricot ] fruits during antiquity from Armenia* to ClubMed and later to wider Europe.
They are for us/me notoriously finicky, they hate to grow higher than about ~250m (MSL), heh not to mention 2-3x higher that, also short over wintering dormancy ( so bad for on/off harsh winters of recent decades vs blooming ), need sun trap oriented NW spot to the house/structure etc. .. so I gave up eons ago..
Now, enter this crazy year, and very recently concluded giga-heat wave, and voila, bumper crop of apricots here we come! Now, for reasons explained above, I don’t have them planted, but they are just shining out from everywhere NOW: old decrepit alleys or near detached cemeteries, older section of villages and residential city areas etc.
Simply, the year of bumper crop arrived after at least ~20-30yrs span!
Now, what you do? You go and politely ask or if the limb with fruit hangs over the property boundary line you gently snap it. Next step, (for the lazy like me) enter supermarket get that puffy pastry dough, preferably the slightly ~higher end brand, unroll dough, then apply lay on top of it [ secret ] curd/quark combo, and ~15x apricot halves (de-pitted) dome facing down, close the dough envelope, and seal it all with 1-2x runny yokes.., ~30min baking on lower than suggested temps.., let it cool 20min; then entering nirvana, while haphazardly cut-attacking it from all angles (for diff. taste).
PS what’s next ? If you hardly survived this bomb ( me at this moment ), you go for the next one, perhaps canning few more as in jars or use fruit dryer, etc. Meanwhile the other day bake some more or use it otherwise, stuffed/filled dumplings or as cakes, ice cream mixes etc.
—
* supposedly true back-end bio origins are located in CHN though..
Filling in the update report ~ +12hrs later.. on the IAOAE*
The effect of decent amount (over)intake of fresh(during harvest-sampling) +also that(~lightly) baked Apricots on human(-oid) physiology is profound as (beyond) expected.
For one thing, the beyond rich pulp-juices full of enzymes started to interact with bodily/gut pre-existing microbiota in such strength that it was also confirmed via resulting ~immediate magnesium deficiency aka leg/hand lite muscle cramp to be alleviated by add. [Mg] pill and nibbling specific magnesium rich chard-salad as well.
The very “clean fuel-burn” properties effect of Apricots was confirmed** then by NONE after-effect foul smell perspiration from upper glands what so ever.
While ~cross-validation was performed just immediately after-wards via small intake of quality +95% meat schinken and a bit of spicey hi-end sausage sample.. with obvious followed-upon reaction.
PS aka always navigate your fruit bumper crop occasions w. caution!
—
* Impromptu Apricot Over-doze Attempted Experiment
** the selection of quality pastry dough, quark and bio eggs also played important role for balanced test as expected
Time to make apricot jam!
Put your surplus fruit into storage for future use, because if those trees are shagged out, next summer you may not see a single apricot.
Truly epic cup half full reporting Jr.
Thanks, I was simply perplexed by that natural occurence-happenstance after so many yrs.
Similarly, as written here perhaps few yrs ago, when at one spot the soil improved so much ( after decades of less mowing ), that very old bush of this citrus-apple like fruit started producing in cont. fashion y/y like crazy again.. (btw. this year nothing hah).
Get some fruity variety of it locally as well ( none/low attention species – strong yield ):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaenomeles_japonica
Now, enter this crazy year, and very recently concluded giga-heat wave, and voila, bumper crop of apricots here we come! Now, for reasons explained above, I don’t have them planted, but they are just shining out from everywhere NOW: old decrepit alleys or near detached cemeteries, older section of villages and residential city areas etc.
Simply, the year of bumper crop arrived after at least ~20-30yrs span!
We had this same phenomena in Japan last year. Bumper crops of plums in the spring, loquats in the summer, persimmons and citrus fruit and chestnuts in the autumn, including on old trees that had not fruited very much in a decade or more.
It was exceptionally hot and dry last summer, but more than the weather, the quality of the sunlight was different to what I was familiar with. Either the air was unusually clear or the Sun was emitting unusually powerfully. Or both. China is not sending Japan as much air pollution as formerly, and last year and this are at the peak of the sunspot cycle–or solar maximum.
Timeline: Solar Cycle 25 began in December 2019. The peak maximum phase arrived in late 2024 and is expected to sustain high activity through 2026 before entering a gradual declining phase.
Intensity: Initially predicted to be weak, this cycle has significantly outperformed consensus forecasts, producing the highest sunspot numbers seen in over two decades.
Space Weather Impacts: The heightened activity increases the frequency of geomagnetic storms, which cause strong auroras (Northern/Southern Lights) to be visible at much lower latitudes. It can also temporarily disrupt shortwave radio communications, GPS navigation, and electric power grids.
This peak of the solar cycle is also why the auroras have been so brilliant of late. Lots of charged particles from the sun are having fun lighting up night sky.
Yes, good points, it could be confluence of many factors as you describe, incl. sun’s spiked output and econ crash forced less sky pollution contributions.
My point though, was that Apricots north of Alps are much more boundary outlier success vs say regular (on/off) season for plums or cherries etc. as usually experienced from y/y or once in 2-4yrs row etc.
Btw. perhaps interestingly, ALSO for this very year’s season, it is synced w. very unusually strong walnut, chestnut, and ~hazel bumper crop season ( anticipated given visible progress so far ) as well. Currants also going ~strong, while extra massive bumper crop for ~wild blackberries was last year though. So, this perhaps telling us it could be also further complicated by some insect pop per given year-season, wind-sun, or even other forcing-mechanisms..
‘Corydon, marche davant,
Scache ou le bon vin se vend:
………….
Achete des abricos, de artichos,
Des fraises et de la creme:
………..
Or que je suis dispos,
Je veux boire sans repos’.
RONSARD
Most envious of your unanticipated bounty!
My hope is that blackberries will, for just once, deliver on their promise. Too much rain, or sun, always seem to do them in here; but at my London garden, always perfect……
Thanks, great intro poetic lines, renaissance FR, Pierre de Ronsard, right?
Mind you, it’s not ~MINE bounty~, as mentioned above these apricot trees were/are mostly some older stock-genetics, usually placed quasi(lost/hidden) let aside at odd places.. suddenly awakening into bumper crop season, hence that spiked up visibility. Surprisingly enough, most people around are kind of blind, non reactive-responsive to this occurrence in the first place, when I tried to rise this topic casually in recent days. People are rather pre-occupied with other priorities and interests, strangely..
Similarly, last year autumn, utmost pear bumper crop ongoing, again almost no interest by general pop.. wtf.. ?
In terms of the stuff on my land, that’s chiefly ~non commercial volumes/acreage, nice to be around sure. But it is perhaps volume-wise feeding more of the ~local birds, and ultimately critters like moles, voles, .. compost and soil earthworms than me [ that person ] hah.
PS allow “pro-tip” on blackberries, depends on variety.., but generally if planted near – in / under morning-noon shade of say larch living hedge – could be even small-ish fitting hedge ~HOA limits compatible; provides->(lite acidifying forrest-like soil effect) – you get that double function as in no full day sun exposure and token soil acidity then blackberries should work nicely.. almost every season..
Amazing how sometimes what seem like less than optimum choices later seem to be more optimum
Apricot jam sounds yummy.
As hinted above, some fruits are so full of life enhancing properties right after [ the Harvest ] that it could be wise using-prioritizing this potential up front, i.e. #1 direct consumption at hand, and then various follow-up preserving methods structured as the least amount-volume prioritized for the most detrimental options..
So, in short lets say eat ~70% right away within dayz-few weeks time window if possible.. for the rest apply various baking and canning operations..
Lets propose the following (timely-)order of consumption-prioritization, my list could be improved – debated upon further..
1. Direct consumption after-harvest
2. Delayed consumption after-harvest ( ~semi/cold storage)
3. Usage in various ice cream mixes ( meant not to be frozen – just added cold cream+ to it )..
3.5 Various “cold fruit-leather” concepts ala mixer-blend it – then cool it – roll-ed then cold stored it
4. Quasi Unforced de-hydration ( a bit complex ) – not cooperating weather etc.
5. Forced de-hydration ( e.g. machine )
6. Baked in various forms/recipes – as per short time and low temps as possible
7. Full scale canning jams/jelly.. procedures
..
.
Read my post below. The biggies are preparing to move to Patagonia soon so none of the countries named above will be relevant
Whitney Webb theory. Meh.
Sorry. I don’t know who is Whitney webb
FTR I wasn’t implying that you got it from Webb or that that would necessarily even matter. I assumed by the biggies you meant the publicly known nouveau riche, which is who Webb conveniently points her finger at. If OTOH you meant the old money Elites and string pullers then that would be a parallel or complementary theory to Webb’s, and more useful than hers, but I d be curious to know how you would know that the theory is true.
In my opinion the Peter Thiels and whoever else is getting lumped in with him in Patagonia are just irrelevantly bugging out like the rest of us but just doing so with a whole lot more money and power and a whole lot less loyalty to place because all people like that have ever known is carpetbagging and hustling, hustling and carpetbagging.
I might be profusely channeling my inner MG here, but I think Kulm specifically meant your Khazarian friends, reante…
thanks x- if that’s the case then that just means that kulm has been body snatched by the Hand’s controlled opposition mind control misdirection psyop in service of the social nationalisms.
How does the Hand sneak social nationalisms in the back door? By making people believe that the ‘nazis’ have once again been chased off to Patagonia where all ‘Nazis’ always retreat to when they lose the war. LOL. The ‘nazis’ might have gone there voluntarily to bug out in concert with their ‘depopulation agenda’ but by God now that they’ve been thwarted by America First, they’re gonna stay there so that’s a retreat. Lol. Maybe we’ll even extradict a couple for show.
Beware the mental slavery.
It seems the Usual Suspects will give Argentine the Win for this FIFA World Cup in exchange for a permanent “Lease” in Patagonia.
Javier Mileikowsky is in cahoots with Peter Thiel, and by corollary, JD Vance, and looks like all the important people will descend to Patagonia as the Core goes to hell.
Patagonia does produce some oil and gas, enough to keep the important people in luxury for quite a while, while the rest of the world is abandoned.
In your book – what chances (were/now gone) in the former scenario moving their tent to the UKR landmass first ( early idealized plan to win over RU scenario ), than this follow-up second plan ala moving or at least establishing such fallback – retreat option setup into Patagonia ?
0, 30%, .. 70% .. ?
Ukraine too vulnerable
Patagonia is better protected
¡Correctamundo!
Move them to Isla Grande de Tierra del Fuego. They will, for the first time ever, be the majority and there’s as much luxury penguin watching as anyone could ever desire(just realised, they won’t out number the penguins. How sad).
Patagonia’s population is about 2 million, scattered around a fairly large area.
https://www.britannica.com/place/Patagonia-region-Argentina/Plant-life
The climate doesn’t seem to be amenable to growing grains. Do they grow potatoes as starches? Could the area really support an influx of people with locally grown food? I expect there would be plenty of lamb and seafood, but how about other foodstuffs?
All the rumored tech will be used for the worthy
“Russia now it can n Russia now can take
19:27 take on the entire NATO I think and win uh this is how powerful Russia is and people don’t really understand how powerful Russia is even without nuclear.”?
Blurb says:
If you thought Russia’s restraint is weakness… think again. There is strategy behind every move. Today, Dr. Vladimir Brovkin, Russian-born American historian and former Harvard associate professor, discusses Europe’s weak public will for war with Russia, rising US-Russia risks, Putin’s long game, Ukraine’s drone attacks, Russia’s military and industry, the likely endgame in Ukraine, and why Moscow is turning it’s back to Europe.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 Introduction
00:01:19 Europe, Russia, and public opinion
00:07:15 Escalation and Putin’s restraint
00:13:26 Why US-Russia ties are more dangerous
00:18:26 Russia’s military power and time advantage
00:24:43 US politics, war hawks, and future risks
00:30:56 Drone attacks and Russia’s response
00:40:37 Weapons costs and military industry
00:48:08 What a Russian victory may look like
00:54:54 Borders, Kaliningrad, and the Baltic question
00:58:18 Russia’s turn toward Asia
01:01:09 Where to follow Dr. Brovkin
According to Dr. Brovkin, Russia doesn’t want to conquer all of Europe. Its goal is only to make a portion of Ukraine to be a separate country, that is allied with Russia, and not a member of NATO.
I think anyone who follows the war as closely, as many of us here do, will have a better sense for what is going on than Brovkin does.
EDIT: but this is a better video of his than the others I’ve seen
No bids for over 70% of Indian coal mines up for auction .
What is feasible might not be economical .
https://www.mining.com/web/no-bids-for-over-70-of-indian-coal-mines-up-for-auction/
Several auctions for oil , lithium blocks have had “zero” bids .
Coal mines become less and less economic, as the easiest to extract, best-quality coal is taken out first. Even as the cost of mining has gone up, the ability of consumers to pay higher prices for goods made with coal (or with energy products, in general) has not gone up. If coal mines can be seen to be basically unprofitably, no one will want to buy them. I am sure that is why the government wants to sell them.
A similar problem exists for oil, lithium, and almost any other mineral.
Competition with really cheap Chinese AI seems to be driving AI prices down, especially for start up companies. The WSJ reports:
AI Giants Are Handing Out Tons of Free Computing Power to Grab Startup Share
Pitched battle for business users comes as AI companies seek lasting streams of revenue
Model providers hope that by offering these companies discounts, they can lock them into their ecosystem.
Also, from Zerohedge (but behind a paywall)
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/token-unmaxxing-ai-model-makers-slash-prices-goldmans-1-delta-desk-warns-very-rotational
Token-Unmaxxing: AI Model-Makers Slash Prices, Goldman’s 1-Delta Desk Warns Of A “Very Rotational Market Where Momentum Struggles”
Semianalysis, an AI-infrastructure data and consulting firm, recently published research showing how heavily the companies are subsidizing power users.
Subscribers to Anthropic’s Claude Max plan, which costs $200 a month, are able to burn tokens worth $8,000 in their usage-based plans administered through an application programming interface, or API, which allows them to integrate Anthropic’s technology into their products. Maximum use of OpenAI’s ChatGPT Pro 20x plan, which also costs $200 a month, can burn tokens worth $14,000.
Sort of a golf cart substitute:
From the WSJ:
Fiat’s Next Move in America: Tiny, Cute, Electric and $14,000
The two-seat Topolino is aimed at traveling in resorts and neighborhoods, and one version uses ropes instead of doors
-Fiat began U.S. sales of the Topolino, a two-seat, fully-electric compact car, priced from $13,995, with a top speed of 25 mph.
-Federal regulations from over two decades ago allow low-speed vehicles, which do not require crashworthiness standards, to be sold in the U.S.
The Topolino has no air-conditioning system and is expected to drive up to 46 miles on a full charge.
Fiat is positioning the Topolino as an alternative option for a growing cohort of motorists considering a low-speed vehicle, such as a golf cart, for daily commuting. The brand notes that many golf-cart owners buy those vehicles today for use outside of a course, suggesting there is demand for additional options.
The context being, you did not get it ( for US ) early on or ever, after the WWII Italy flooded Europe with these ~micro Fiat cars, small engine displacement, few kgs weight, parking into city-niches, low cost. My parents almost killed themselves during accident in one.., neck and upper arm injuries-stitches ( healed ) yet visible up to their late 80s of age.
This newest hitec retro-gen should be obviously a bit more secure.
India’s three-wheeled LNG-powered vehicles go faster than 25 mph. If we are headed in the direction of India, I am afraid that the direction of Fiat is the direction some people will consider.
I have noticed small electric vehicles on the university campus, next to our home. They are owned by KSU, for use by various departments. I expect that they are sturdier than golf carts. Also, the post office now has electric delivery trucks.
Plug in and short distance use, at a not very high speed can make sense, if there is local electricity. The electricity can even be intermittent electricity from solar.
Small update, looked briefly at some of the YTvids and some reviewers focused cam under the bonnet or rather inside the wheel arches ( chassis ) , and the thing is bordering pathetic crash-wise, yes perhaps upto ~20mi speed there will be ~some kind of partial impact protection. Obviously, they used sim-crash software and some live testing, but I’d be scared with that thing inside even within a regular (inner ) city slow-speed areal.
As always, should real ( fuel crisis ) market demand appear for such segment getting popular, eventually it would be stormed over Asian competition in short order instead..
update: actually just searching alongside Chinese micro car, yields results already for better options also bellow $15k
PS I’m not sure about it in general, basically severe rationing situation scenario of the ~near future would still allow bus service and various today’s cargo truck fleets running the pre-existent hi-w network for some time, .. hence people not much enthusiastic to mix with such traffic even on the outskirts with these tiny contraptions.. then it’s way better just already existing 4wd cargo buggy for the ~garden.. as useful tool..
For example ( clickable video also ), this 4WD UTV looks perhaps viable, 72V system, ~beefy transmission front and rear, not sure about the max load on that bed.. but certainly x-times better value vs. that micro-Fiat ed.
https://shorturl.at/a9ENF
Your link shows several kinds of inexpensive, off road electrical utility vehicles available for quite a bit less than $15,000. I even noticed one for about $1,500.
Only the top of page:
” Big Power Side by Side UTV Buggy 4X4 with Big Cargo Bed. HENAN LVCCI ELECTRIC VEHICLE MANUFACTURING CO.,LIMITED ”
you can click on the pic/vid/spec
Basically, ~copie$/derivatives of Kawasaki ” Mule ” and similar utility vehicles out there for decades..
Hell you can get a salvage hybrid for that with a panel ding.
Yes airbags and modules are a pain to replace.
Bound to fail . We must understand the ” last mile ” phenomena . I have seen it in India ” from your house to the metro station ” — your options are 2 — pedaled rickshaw or EV rickshaw from China . Fiat is trying to displace this . I myself work in “the last mile ” phenomena — I have to make deliveries in Belgium where only LCV max 3.5 tonnes can enter on one way streets . No parking places . Deliver and run . Anyway I have long said the order of death in the automotive industry will start with Nissan — then Stellantis Group which includes Fiat . Clutching at straws to remain afloat .
Rearranging deck chairs for the game of musical chairs
Reante… I tried to respond to your comment below but twice it didn’t take and lost everything.
If those were the comments about Pape then they did post as you probably know by now, either on a true delay or just because in my experience it requires refreshing the page two or three times in order for them to miraculously pop up. This is an idiosyncratic platform to say the least.
I agree that trying to keep the manufacturers of these vehicles alive will be difficult.
Yes, I reported several times about Stellantis situation, Jeeps are not moving much from the dealer’s lot ( have 2x newly renovated sites aka printed EURs ~nearby ), basically the only volume sellers from the entire group are the french midsized cargo vans ( Citroen Berlingo / Peugeot Partner ), these have been around for decades so it’s perfected after many gen. to optimum now.. ; perhaps few Alfa-Romeos ( Fiats ) are selling a bit around ClubMed not northerly anymore.. the dayz of [ Alan Delon ] driving them like mad on movie screens are gone ( +50yrs ago lol )..
I drive a Berlingo . The last had 800, 000 Kms before it broke down because of my fault . Now driving one with 550, 000 kms on the meter . Excellent vehicles . However , I must add that it is also to the new engine oils and other lubricants . Anyway it is the end of Stellantis . Jeeps — so sad . I made my fortune in the MB , CJ3B models in India . Nostalgic about the brand .
Yes, Berlingo/Partner fantastic work horses, especially the slightly prolonged L2 version – I was quite dismayed learning recently – their independent partner (small ass.line) doing add on 4×4 conversions for emergency/military and farmers suddenly turned the (rear axle) into electric propulsion only, i.e. downgrade from proper 4×4 (known for decades), perhaps to save on money, they were not doing large series of them lately apparently anymore.. grr
this world is not on the proper track..
Russian pump party’s
Brings me back to 79
Martenson has commented that demand is up 2 percent in USA since the war started
When SPR hits tank bottom keeping prices low and demand high with SPR means the pump party pain all that much more in USA. Good old affordability will fix that. Hopefully.
Then things get real.
Then people realize Humpty Dumpty is not feeling well.
https://m.youtube.com/shorts/rr-8L_ycaLY
” The biggest result will likely be Hormuz being completely bypassed for oil using dessert pipelines within 4-5 years. That will change Iran’s leverage permanently. 3
This will not happen , but please read the whole post , specially how govt intervention is not preventing but delaying the eventual implosion/ explosion .
” Government Oil Inc.
The Hormuz Crisis was a lesson to all on how governments can manipulate/distort commodity markets.
The SPR releases were to the oil market during Hormuz as the money printer and stimulus checks were during Covid.
Crude is still reeling from the interference, and refined products (gasoline, diesel etc) prices have become truth touchstones as the least distorted prices in oil.
Now we have to think about what the longer terms unintended consequences will be.
A simple answer is that more crude oil will be stored, but that storage costs money, maybe adding 10% onto retail oil prices.
The biggest result will likely be Hormuz being completely bypassed for oil using dessert pipelines within 4-5 years. That will change Irans leverage permanently.
As a side note, individual governments did a lot of weird oil market manipulation during the Hormuz crisis beyond the SPR crude dumps that did not work:
Germany (April 2026) tried to stop petrol stations from changing fuel prices multiple times a day by allowing increases only once, at exactly 12 noon.
Result? One big coordinated High Noon spike instead of death by a thousand cuts.
Data already shows German retailer margins on petrol rose about 5 cents per litre as a result of the rule alone. That equates to almost $10 billion extra costs per year on oil due to German government action.
The 12-Uhr-Regel forces every station to sell drivers a one-day at-the-money call option on fuel every day, resetting at noon.
Fewer chances to hike means they make that single one count.
Classic unintended consequence.
Other examples of governments raising the price of oil or creating shortages during the crisis:
Hungary: retail fuel price caps creating local shortages.
Austria/Czechia: limits on retailer margins…punishing the lowest margin part of the oil supply chain.
France: price caps caused station shortages.
Slovenia/Slovakia: Fuel purchase caps, higher prices for foreign plates, caused rationing that wouldn’t have occurred otherwise.
South Korea: price caps caused oil hoarding
Bangladesh: Daily rationing (10L cars/2L bikes), forcing university closures.
Sri Lanka: Wednesdays closures for public sector/schools; caused by fuel rationing.
Government Oil Inc.
https://x.com/morgan_downey/status/2074419385884721201
Iran has just fired missiles at a Qatari LNG carrier transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
This is a major breach of the ceasefire, risking a new military escalation between Washington and Tehran while representing a major energy security threat for Europe and Asia.
https://x.com/Frank_Stones/status/2074436343690666457/photo/1
The Hormuz Escalation Cycle Keeps Repeating 🛢️⚠️
The pattern is simple
A trigger event hits shipping or military assets
Then the cycle accelerates
🔹 Iran or proxy forces hit a ship
🔹 The US strikes IRGC-linked targets
🔹 Iran responds with missiles, drones, cyber operations or proxy attacks
🔹 Gulf states and energy infrastructure become exposed
🔹 The US conducts limited follow-on strikes
🔹 Mediation brings a temporary pause
🔹 Shipping resumes, but under higher security costs
🔹 The underlying disputes remain unresolved
🔹 A new trigger event restarts the cycle
This is why the Strait of Hormuz never returns to “normal” immediately
Even after de-escalation, the risk remains embedded in the system
🔹 Higher insurance
🔹 Military escorts
🔹 Slower vessel movement
🔹 Freight volatility
🔹 Energy price risk
🔹 LNG and crude flow uncertainty
The headline may be ceasefire
But the structure is still escalation risk
Until the root causes are resolved, Hormuz remains a recurring geopolitical pressure point
https://x.com/jackprandelli/status/2074435242794844617/photo/1
The loss from the Gulf is more than 18 mbpd . Anas Alhaji– a free post .
https://anasalhajjieoa.substack.com/p/public-no-paywall-the-hormuz-crisis?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMzIyNjI1NzQsInBvc3RfaWQiOjE5MTc5MDQwMywiaWF0IjoxNzgzNDI4MjIxLCJleHAiOjE3ODYwMjAyMjEsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0xMjIyOTk4Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.ov1V7J70QwxtCtkeDhO-SXA9xN4GkP9OU9_Dfjiyk1w
I didn’t notice anything about an 18 mbpd loss from the Gulf, by the way.
One thing this article talks about is the Western media’s desire to make the escalation by Iran sound worse than it really was. He feels that this would make the US sound like a more dependable exporter.
deliberate and coordinated exaggeration, aligning with broader efforts to pressure Iran economically, amplify the narrative of Iranian aggression, and sustain elevated energy market volatility during the conflict.
This article also points out:
Thus, the core disruption stems from commercial risk aversion and skyrocketing insurance costs, not from any proven Iranian naval closure or selective favoritism. . .
The sharp drop in shipping traffic through the strait stems primarily from insurance companies canceling war-risk coverage or imposing prohibitively expensive premiums.
Is Iran the target? Who Benefits the Most from Closing Hormuz?
If you assume that Iran is the target of this war and Iran it has closed the Strait of Hormuz, then the biggest beneficiaries are clearly the United States and Russia. Trump stands to gain significantly from this closure, as it advances several of his key objectives, which I outline below. Alternatively, if you view this through the lens of a broader US strategy for global dominance, where Iran serves merely as a pretext to execute a larger plan, the outcome remains similar: it fulfills the ambitions of what some call the “deep state,” as articulated in the National Security Strategy announced in November 2025.
. . .The aim is to position the United States as the world’s dominant energy center and to reduce Asia’s dependence on energy supplies from the Gulf region.
There seems to be an interest in driving up the demand for US farm products, by reducing the supply of fertilizer elsewhere.
A halt in shipments of LNG and other liquid petroleum gases disrupts even the domestic fertilizer production in many Asian countries. Local industries in these nations rely heavily on these feedstocks to manufacture fertilizers, so any prolonged cutoff cripples their ability to produce them on a scale. This ties directly into one reason Trump imposed steep tariffs on certain Asian countries.
One of the things Trump was looking for was higher oil prices:
. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven precisely this outcome: a sharp, sustained spike in global prices for oil, natural gas, and LNG.
[My comment: But this article is from March 22. High prices don’t stay around.]
Summary:
In summary, the attack on Iran and the resulting disruption of the Strait of Hormuz have delivered massive strategic gains for the United States. . .The immediate costs and economic pain are concentrated in the short term. In contrast, the benefits, including strengthened US strategic positioning in global energy markets, reduced reliance on adversarial suppliers, accelerated domestic investment in technology and manufacturing, and long-term supply-chain resilience, are largely long-term in nature, emerging over years or decades as these structural shifts take hold. This mismatch between near-term hardship and delayed gains is a classic feature of major economic realignments driven by policy or external shocks. However, this mismatch is creating confusions among experts and laymen alike.
Yes, excellent points revealing the respective aspiration-strategies.. for world’s next pecking order in terms of power projection ( ~meaningless aggregate statistical per capita disparities hanging around for a bit longer )..
Wishing upon now :
1/ US
2/ CHN, RU
3/ EU, IND, ..
—
Sooner or later true reality onset:
1/ CHN
2/ RU, US, IND
3/ EU
by mid 2030s
I think Prof Robert Pape’s argument for Iran becoming the next regional power is the most convincing. They are using their proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, etc to ensure that oil is not re-directed thru the Mediterean or Red Seas. He sees the US retreating to become a regional power in the Americas. I remember your diagram with circles around the Americas and the rest of the world. Does the USA have access to enough higher density crude? Its my understanding from Art Berman we import around 70% from Canada (Tar Sands)…. and maybe we’ll get more from Venezuela to replace the 10% we get from the Middle East. And of course there would have to be some kind of reset 1st of the global economy. China will have to retreat as well as you’ve mentioned they’re past peak coal. I foresee the economies going back to basics and loss of a lot of complexity, technology as you have so well explained in numerous articles on your website.
ks, that Pape-style narrative is what the Non-Public managers of the Non-Public Degrowth Agenda want us to believe. Pape knows nothing of Peak Oil, so how can he possibly offer a sound framework for what awaits us?
Pape’s and all of the rest of the platformed peak oil ignoramuses’ prognostications shoved down our throats by the Algorithm are what I refer to as the last resort of State disinformation, which is to push back further into the future the point of Collapse than it really is, in order to better control Collapse.
You watched a Pape video because he has been platformed in order that you watch a Pape video. There are really only a few talking heads out there on Yootoob whose feel for a true systems theory inclusive of peak oil we can trust. We still might have disagreements with them on speed or timing of collapse but at least they live in systems reality. There’s Nate Hagens — he’s another climate believer btw — there’s Steve Keen — though he will never explicitly mention peak oil — Art Berman, though he soft-pedals the systems theory and also can’t mention peak oil. Ditto Chris Martenson. People like Chris and Art who have mainstreamed themselves into the controlled opposition cottage industry will soft-pedal stuff because they know they have to. And the few people on the margins like Steve and Nate don’t soft pedal, although Steve is bigger than Nate and also started his economics career not knowing about peak oil so Steve can’t talk about peak oil though peak oil absolutely informs his systems theory. Nate, however, is one of us. Though when he has people on his show who are not one of us, Nate sells out the peak oil systems theory and becomes one of them because those are the vagaries of being a host of a platform – it’s self-institutionalizing.
Nate had Michael Every on his show last month and the comments section was absolutely livid with Nate for not only having a soft-Zionist on the show but Nate morphing into a tacit Zionist for the sake of the hosting. Lol.
Strivers and hustlers are funny. They’re so transparent.
Reante… Even though I’ve learned a lot from Art Berman, I feel he involves politics too much in his work. And I almost get the sense, he’s rooting for the Zionist. I think Michael Every as well as Jiang Xuequin are assets…. working for some agenda. I have a hard time listening to Nate Hagens as he’s too much of an idealist. But I do feel differently about Prof. Robert Pape. He knows what is coming to us in the West is very devastating. He doesn’t sugarcoat it. He studied under Mearsheimer and they are both realists. They focus on the here and now. I also like Chris M. I think the peak oil topic is very complex and Gail Tverberg’s work has been the most useful to me in understanding what’s going on with that. Just like Peak Oil, the seriousness of the the climate situation is not getting out to the public. I think James Hansen is underestimating it was well not to scare the public so as to focus on fixing it. I read his book “Storms of My Grandchildren” to get a good overview and basis from where to start. That’s why I don’t think those in charge would mind a nuclear war as it would create a nuclear winter to depopulate and take care of the climate problem. Sorry to sound so doomy…
Reante… totally agree with you on Nate Hagens, Michael Every, Art Berman, etc. I can’t follow them anymore. But its different with Robert Pape. He doesn’t sugarcoat the devastation coming to the West. He’s been modelling the Middle East and is focusing on the here and now on what’s going on there. He talks real politics just like Mearsheimer. I think its hard to model what’s going to happen after peak oil. Hasn’t the Club of Rome modelled this? I read all of Gail Tverberg’s posts and I think she describes it very well in terms of a big picture. It’s so difficult to wrap one’s head around it. There are some things too about the climate that concern me that don’t get to the public…. (like the methane in the shallow sea shelves of the Arctic). I think reading Shakhova and Semelitov’s papers really shook me. There’s so much that could go wrong right now. I’ve taken a step back from reading about climate as the oil thing is much closer.
ks, great comments. My point regarding the likable Papes a Mearsheimers and Michael Hudsons is that they promote a Western Great Depression in the wake of Big Capital moving East to China. They frame Western Collapse as the latest cycle of Giovanni Arrighi’s “The Winding Paths of Capitalism,” whereas in reality this is the end of the last cycle of modern capitalism and the whole globe is going down.
This false cooptation of peak oil collapse IS the pervasive cultural narrative of the neo liberal Establishment across the West. PBS News hour anchors hosting whole podcast series on a coming Great Depression 2.0. The New Yorker, the NYT, everybody talking about a coming Great Depression as if it’s something we’ll just need to struggle through, make massive socioeconomic reforms because-of, and eventually come out the other side. Hell, that’s even the Democracy Now! leftist narrative. And you know what? It’s also the MAGA America First narrative. Tucker Carlson, Joe Rogan, etc. It’s also the MAGA fear that they delude themselves into thinking Trump is trying to save America from. It’s EVERYBODY’S narrative except ours, because peak oil unstoppable structural collapse is the elephant in the room. The first thing Hand HAS to do in order to manage Collapse is to marginalize the structural nature of it. And that’s a volume play, not a totalitarian one; Hand just saturates the mediascape with an anodyne, co-opted ‘systems theory’s while knowing full well that it’s only we ugly cultural goths who are ever going to see that there is no other side of a depression to come out of.
Reante… thanks for your reply. I get what you’re saying… I see the whole world going down as the global economy is interconnected… how do you see the next few years?
Probably the world economy will split into two hemispheres for most trade. There will be a big step down in many ways.
If we had enough fuel, we would be entering WWIII.
Many international organizations will disappear. Some governments may collapse. I need to write a post about the situation.
Reante… please disregard my last question as I found your forecast for the next few years… I was kind of seeing the same as you. So you’re seeing peak oil demand and peak oil supply at the same time? So for countries with more resources per capita, they will need to downsize very quickly to survive? Will we move from nation to city states? Your summary is very helpful. Had you been anticipating Hormuz as the final event for the full dismantling? Or did it come as a surprise?
Before all these things happened, it never occurred to me that Hormuz would be the final event for dismantling. My crystal ball isn’t that good.
ks, there’s no such thing as peak oil demand. Demand is only ever a function of supply. If I have two apples I can’t demand three apples. Reality is supply-side. Ecological economics is supply-side. ‘Peak oil demand’ is the orwellianism that creates political cover for supply-side peak oil.
Regarding downsizing, yes, it has to happen quickly because catastrophic deleveraging of astronomical bubbles happen quickly. The (financial) floor under the drop needs to be in place before the drop. That is the engineered petrodollar stablecoin. You should be able to ask AI questions about reante’s stablecoin dynamics for slowing Collapse and otherwise just continue to follow along and ask questions as we go.
I don’t believe that city states will survive industrial collapse. Everything that currently exists at the city scale is far, far too dependent on constant imports.
Yeah my Big Nuclear Scare (BNS) theory that lies within my Non-Public Degrowth Agenda (DA) theory is probably 5 years old and always revolved around both the Ukrainian and Iranian wars coming to a head one or both, individually or together. Obviously now it’s both together. BNS theory also has always held that it will result in the end of political Zionism altogether, whether that means Israel actually disappears as a country as a result of the BNS or just Zionist politics disappearing.
I predicted the Ukrainian war a couple years before it started and the Iranian one around the same time. I’m generally early with my predictions. Last year I predicted the Iran war — the official kickoff of the BNS — would start by December.
Obviously the N in BNS hasn’t happened yet, so I can’t yet actually own the BNS. The N in the BNS primarily concerns a war-related catastrophic radiation release from the spent fuel pool of one or more nuclear power plants, with nuclear weapons deployment as a secondary concern that has never struck me as essential to the BNS. But the Hand may well beg to differ on that; it’s certainly been looking that way lately. Planned spent fuel pool releases from the BNS are essential according to the DA because DA theory holds that the whole purpose of the DA in the first place is to decommission the grid-dependent global nuclear power industry before the global grids fails such that all the spent fuel pools cannot be cooled and explode which might well render the northern hemisphere largely or completely uninhabitable, and with uncertain consequences to the southern hemisphere.
But the Hand can’t just wave a magic wand and suddenly create the political will to decommission a global power industry at the same as energy collapse is taking place, so it has to resort to Shock and Awe. Create a situation in which it becomes very clear to the global public that the nuclear power industry suddenly has a highly negative cost-benefit analysis attached to it. Either that happens through direct destruction of select nuclear power plants during the BNS or as near-term indirect destruction via grid failures due to the BNS wars.
Thanks Gail and Reante… the nuclear stuff has always been scary (particularly with the spent fuel rods and over 500 nuclear power plants around the world)… hopefully the collapse can be slow to address these challenges… I will end the comments here and ask more questions later (along the way) as this post is now to far down… Gail it would be great as you mentioned to writing about how you see the world dividing…
Not just oil, but also LNG. My impression before the war started was that the LNG market was oversupplied. Exporters wanted higher prices than importers, such as India, were willing to pay.
Gail , for over 10-15 years I have advocated that that two issues that give nightmares to Washington — SoH and the Taiwan Straits . All war exercises done by Rand and DoD have resulted in the US to be the loser .
“All war exercises done by Rand and DoD have resulted in the US to be the loser”
Not quite ravi. After Van Ripper(Millennium Challenge 2002) thrashed them, they rewrote the rules of the exercise, to guarantee a win and Van Ripper stepped down in disgust, but that’s not important, as they went ahead and so on paper they had a win(think the new rules only allowed the Iranians to surrender and it was still a close call(I’m not joking)).
People should look into the objectives of that “challenge” as they might wonder if they aren’t living it right now.
Morgan Downey is someone we recognize. He has been involved with oil , and how things really work, since my Oil Drum days.
This basically says that governments attempt to manipulate oil prices and availability. Such manipulation sometimes doesn’t work as intended. He believes that ultimately, the system will avoid sending oil through the straight. It is too easy to block or fire upon.
I was on M-8 (a major highway linking Moscow and Archangelsk through Yaroslavl and Vologda) and the situation is not close to solving itself. I went to a local town to pick up tractor documents. M-8 traffic down by a factor of 3, stations on M-8 closed. I bought some fruits from a store I know and asked where I could get gasoline. They pointed me to a station where there was a 400 m line waiting for a truck to arrive. I expect the one local one to have run out of gas also. So I will have to set up an oil drum in the garage and stock up with the next period of relative plenty. If it starts in the West I can provide useful advice.
After a hiatus, the Ukies did strike something valuable in Omsk, as I infer from the russian news body language, so this will continue. Meanwhile the predicted western fuel crisis has not materialized as of July 7.
>> the Ukies did strike something valuable in Omsk
… not sure I would attribute this to the Ukrainians … cross border attacks from presumably uninvolved countries puts Russia in a predicament.
This is what I believe is going on things are going to get really bad once we reach tank bottoms mother Russia is going to feel it first so dr B 753 is perfectly placed to give us some bird’s eye view reports of the situation just remember finite worlders this most definitely could be the next phase of da plan which could involve culling of 99%
PS – if things get bad here in USA / elsewhere, we could see internet connectivity cut or restricted. Likewise who knows what might happen in Russia. If you have time at some point, said advice might be of interest to this audience, a priori. I assume at least a few of us are curious.
you mean in terms of vpns? Russia apparently can stop Deeper Network (a P2P network enabled by a $140 box you attach to your router) easy. It does restrict solely telephone lines, so if you have fiber or cable all is good and only need a vpn or DN to access youtube, whatsapp or telegram. However, it can stop all vpns from operating if it wants to, telephone or cable.
the comment above was the first I posted during a local drone attack. they are getting more efficient at it. we got the warning but internet still on. I have used many VPNs, and when internet is not restricted, they all work. Probably the current best is Happ.
In terms of stockpiling, you have to have canisters. Best to go to a station with fewer or no cameras. Enter the station so that they can not see you directly when you pump (put car between you and cashier), best done at night when there is no one else. then fill canisters while pretending to fill tank. Even better be on good terms with people with access to black market. There is no black market right now here.
I have 70 liters right now, we are even operating chainsaws as we can not hay with all these showers. I have numerous oil drums so one of them will go in the garage for long term storage. best to fill it as much as possible and close tightly.
I just meant it would be nice to hear about the gas-related advice (which you just provided, thanks) sooner rather than later; never know when our shared connection to OFW might go out.
That sort of ” strategic restraint ” going so far is really pushing it..
It’s surely meant that way as multi stage/level game actually, basically pushing RU into “hard” retaliation and then just blaze: ” Look CHN / IND what a crazy-dangerous partner you hang around with.. sanction them! ”
And as we know for (msm) fact the CHN used to play this actively as well, at least earlier few months back into these first RU received domestic infrastructure attacks, not anymore at least publicly these dayz so they learned the game as well ( to some extent ) ..
Well, it was just buying time for nothing, because RU are now methodically striking arms depots hidden on purpose by UKRo in garages and sub terrain infrastructure near high density dwelling say in Kiev capital anyway ( RU delayed this decision for yrs ).
How, the US is know trying to insinuate this is all just Euros activity ( US not directly engaged in this ) is beyond silly.. One word no further Patriots deliveries for you, and they would mellow down in a pico-second..
( because: production said to be ~600x per year and largely depleted everywhere and US needs it in Asia-Pacific ! )
Demand destruction at work in Russia.
One thing few people realize is that the West can outbid the third world, and the West has fewer people, so it can last longer than the rest of the world.
We discovered quite a while ago that China, when it had abundant cheap coal supplies, could outbid the US and other rich countries for oil. I think that outbidding depends upon being about to make goods with an overall inexpensive supply of energy.
On the ~personal fuel crisis point experience itself – partial alleviation tip, perhaps mentioned already, if not yet set up – basically have the cash around and should we go into widespread global fuel ( gasoline – diesel ) rationing / buy *immediately that e-bike with at least some basal cargo functionality, there are also combos of folding ebike + smallish shopping basket.. ( plus your backpack ) hence when madly shopping all over for unobtaniums you can hop on that regional / bus / local train or even in mega cities into subway / bus / tram – trolley / .. with that contraption allowed in; batt. smallish to re-charge..
—
* we could go into scenario of even delayed months shipping from Asia ( irrespective of different ~waste bunker fuel non shortage ) but you never know.. during these early ~shut down / partial recovery wavy stages..
But we are seeing fuel stations that are out of particular types of fuels in the US.
“8:58 What do we have now? What we have now is a situation in which all of NATO is Nazified.
9:08 that is to say, all of NATO, starting with Germany, Poland, the UK, France,
9:17 Italy, Finland, I could go on. There isn’t any part of the NATO system which
9:24 isn’t fully committed to a doctrine of permanent war against Russia for a combination of old-fashioned racist
9:33 supremacist imperial reasons. Of course, that’s the ideology. Under the ideology
9:40 is an economic base that’s being transformed under US direction, under US control. The rearmament,
9:49 remilitarization of Europe is now to be financed and paid for through the United
9:56 States. It’s almost as if Adolf Hitler were to have been funded
10:02 by FDR. Can one imagine that? Well, for a time during the 1930s, US banks were
10:10 financing Adolf Hitler’s uh revival of the German economy. And not only the the US banks but the British
10:20 ones too. They were all committed at the time to very clear doctrines that building up Germany and that meant
10:28 Hitler at the time would threaten and eventually
10:35 uh let’s say neutralize what was perceived to be the Soviet Union threat, the threat of Joseph
10:42 Stalin. So what we’ve got now is de we’ve got a problem of dnazification as
10:49 an original war aim that can’t be implemented because all of Europe has been Nazified.”?
I think that the basic issue is that people who see their standard of living falling, and young people who see no way forward, seem to want to go to war, to fix any perceived problem caused by a neighbor. Going to war helps GDP; it offers more jobs; it gives the possibility of winning.
When I visited Norway not long ago, the Norwegian farmer I talked to said that he thought Norway should join NATO. He was concerned about the low prices his sheep and other products sold for, and the high cost of farming inputs. Young people everywhere are frustrated with don’t being able to do as well as their parents. It is difficult for a young couple to be able to earn enough money to raise a family today.
Norway does belong to NATO!!
But it stayed out of the EU, as did Switzerland and Iceland. There were two referendums and the people refused to vote Yes.
A Zerohedge article claiming that Middle East oil exports are way up in June:
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/uae-crude-output-nears-record-high-following-opec-exit-amid-surge-chinese-buying
The United Arab Emirates raised its crude output to near record highs above 3.8 million barrels per day in June, after the Gulf nation quit OPEC to escape production caps, Reuters reported citing two sources familiar with production data said on Monday. Bloomberg data showed even higher UAE exports, rising to 3.94mmb/d, just shy of the record hit in late 2025.
Chart named “Gulf Oil Exports Rebound in June”:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/gulf%20oil%20exports%20june%202026.jpg?itok=BdlDjMMv
The observation in this tender is that the Chinese teapots are now out buying, whereas in previous tenders they were not even in the buyer list, indicating that the current discounts are now at a level that competes with Iranian and Russian alternatives.
According to Sparta, the current ‘mini-glut’ reflects mismatch of prompt availability vs usual trading window two months ahead, where Mideast barrels should now be trading for September loading instead. However, unless Asian buyers pile up to refill empty SPRs, these extra barrels will need to first fill up commercial storage and then relieve the pressure in arbitrage trades to the West.
“, it’s actually Iran who’s most likely to initiate the violence the bombing to
2:35 close the straight of form or diminish the traffic to keep its leverage. Iran is moving into its period of maximum
2:42 leverage because the oil inventories are drawing down in this period of time. Uh it is going to use that leverage to
2:50 force the Trump administration to stick to the four corners of the mou.”?
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AMD:NASDAQ?window=MAX
AMD is a trillion dollar company with 2025 sales of 35 billion. In any non-bubble circumstances, a company of this size cannot have a market cap of 30x revenue. That is priced beyond perfection.
Suppose a P/E of 20 as the new normal (generous), and even suppose long-term 20% margins (also generous), this would allow a market cap of 4x revenue (consider that market cap of 1x revenue with 20% margin is P/E of 5). So if 4x revenue is a fair valuation, then a company at 30x revenue is 7-8x overvalued. These sorts of overvaluations can happen in hyped small caps, but for this to happen for such a large company goes to show how crazy the current market is.
Yes, this magic ~[ 6-8x ] boundary over pricing ratio is perhaps subset of over-all scheme matrix nut and bolts.. Now, imagine if in ~similar ratio, the (near)-future of RE ( big metro areas ) would drop so much, exactly within such scale. Eh, because that would suddenly roughly equal the purchasing price many decades ago vs ~salary, hah.
I guess I mentioned recently the tragic-funny moments of one of the Duran Greeks strolling his Cypriot neighborhood, where there are new investment condos being build so fast, he often can’t navigate that city street when walking narrating his int politics video commentaries, lol. Simply, the excess fraudulent capital has been parked in places like this ( ~75-90% vacant for ever RE ), the same among Gulfies, parts of Asia, apart from EU/US etc.
We are onto something here..
The stock market (and crypto currencies) is now serving as an “inflation sink”.
Imagine the inflation rate if all that “money” was chasing actual goods and services instead.
Cart before the horse.
Actually, such extreme financialization is what creates such an extreme ‘wealth effect’ that drives the inflation. Notional wealth driving excess demand relative to utility equals the inflation necessary to keep the deleveraging at bay. The question is actually: imagine what the deflation rate would be without the extreme financialization? We’ve reached the limits of that Everything Ponzi which is why the energy rug has been pulled and we’re just sitting around waiting for the other shoe to drop.
You write with excellent clarity of recently.
Now the pesky question of mine ( as amateurs hah ) about timing.
Given they (allowed / co-)launched this crazy Iran project this year, one could gather the timing must be somewhat on expedient regiment right now, as per just simple logic – guesstimate process.
Hence my worry ( 99%) of late, that these ” calm waters ” for us are not going to last till even 2030-35.. , unless some profound miracles are phased-in / announced pronto ( at least as bridging hopium scaffolding ), and yes if that ever happens likely then with proviso of specific excess human pop agenda controls in.
Aw thanks Jr. The post-Trump Global Peace Accords and denuclearization are the only miracles on the horizon that the creative commons DA can see unless someone has a better miracle in mind. I certainly don’t expect any energy miracles for this civilization, it’s too big. Some favored souls might end up with the Beam powerplant as their mother of all bug out generators somewhere. Underground maybe? That’s why all the aliens are so pale, right? They fucked up just like us and didn’t pull off their DAs right and were forced underground for too many generations with their own repurposed Beams from UFO crash vehicles they recovered until their hail mary attempts at repairing those crash vehicles came true and they started to wander the galaxy like nomads only to crash land on planet Earth at just the right time to start the cycle all over again.
Have you not just disproved aliens ability to traverse galaxies?
Made a mess of everything and kept crashing(sounds similar to a well known idiots cars).
If that’s advancement to type 1, all I can say is, no thanks.
Not at all. How do? In fact I believe I just proved it. Type 1 civilization for dummies. Please let the relevant departments know.
They scrounged parts from multiple vehicles that appear to be somewhat shit at flying, being that they all crashed and on the home planet no less, so clearly unable to clear the atmosphere. They then built another one and like a miracle, it not only left the planet, but by chance, made it all the way to earth. Learning nothing, they then started the whole process again.
These aliens seem disturbingly dense. Then again, Boeing and Musk come to mind. You could be correct, that level of stupidity is not seen anywhere in nature, so it’s probably alien to this planet.
All we need now, is Fred(?) to pull the mask off. Crime of the century solved.
I’m not denying that there might be aliens(they’re not watching us), in the same way that I don’t deny that there might be a god(neither is she). No hard evidence for either mind(although some angelic voices have graced our presence and a fair few that clearly have no place here).
Interesting point! You probably are correct.
When systemically important banks print money (currency) via fractional reserve lending, the governments through quantitative easing, low interest rate monetary policies, carry trade etc. this newly conjured up “money” has to go somewhere. It gets stuffed into stawks, derivatives, bonds and other financial gimmicks. The ultimate Potemkin financial facade.
It’s strange however that most of the money is in AI and tech and not on commodities; it’s almost if that is off limits for investment
Previously untouched Russian Omsk refinery hit. Russias largest.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EmjkZ5_MkiM&pp=ygUET21za9IHCQlOCwGHKiGM7w%3D%3D
None of this happens without the satellites overhead.
Starfish Prime was a high-altitude HEMP with some supra-atmospheric HANE effects in the satellite ecology of Low Earth Orbit.. A HANE (high altitude nuclear explosion) attack is Spacewars. Big Nuclear Scare might incorporate a HANE or maybe just Russia taking out satellites with missiles like it demonstrated in 2024. In a world without the Hand, it’s ridiculous that Russia hasn’t alread taken out satellites, given the damage its taking, just like with the drone parts transit points it’s not touching.
2025 short paper on the topic:
“Russia destroyed one of its own satellites with an antisatellite missile, foreshadowing a future threat to the United States’ vast orbital communication infrastructure. In 2024, after withdrawing from multiple arms control agreements, Russia launched a satellite in orbit that could employ a nuclear weapon. U.S. Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy Vipin Narang stated that the prospect of this space weapon poses “a threat to satellites operated by countries and companies around the globe, as well as to the vital communications, scientific, meteorological, agricultural, commercial, and national security services upon which we all depend.”
“The norm against using nuclear weapons endured for decades, but recent saber-rattling and proliferation trends suggest this restraint is fragile. Would adversaries consider launching a HANE attack that destroys and degrades electronics without direct loss of human life? Would such an attack be perceived as a breach of the international taboo on nuclear weapons use? This paper examines existing research on HANE effects to dispel misconceptions and clarify the potential consequences of such a scenario.”
https://www.csis.org/analysis/high-altitude-nuclear-explosions-myths-and-reality
There are several depths/alt. for satellites in the orbit. The most dense layer being likely that for Musk’s and now CHN and RU systems doing the same aka 3x such networks in ~lower orbit. Warfare in space now would not be “as easy” as modeled say in the 1970s.. ; then there are obviously many other layers/alt. for other types of sat, even incl. geostationary ( fixed in place ) etc.
The “space debris” is now increasingly weighted topic for a reason, many decades of junk out there..
Thanks. The article addresses collateral damage considerations. I imagine the Hand’s Beam space installation(s) has next level shielding lol.
Just a possibility. I sure there is a solution. It’s inherently a hostile environment. Just got to find the banana peel. If the Russkis have not been putting there considerable understanding of physics and significant space skills into a solution I would be surprised. Which means I’m guessing. Again. Times up regardless. If they don’t have a box of shake and bake biscuits there will be no supper.
Thanks!
The linked paper is quite recent, from July 2025. It gives considerable background on HANES and why people might be worried about their near-term use:
Waging war against an enemy with dominant digital communications systems is a recipe for defeat. Modern digital communications structures enable lethal kill-chain targeting cycles, seamless command and control, and precision guidance that dominate the enemy. This reality makes the space and cyber domains a primary target in future warfare. All tacticians seek to degrade their adversaries’ communications in war, but few consider the literal “nuclear option” that could fundamentally upend the current communications ecosystem. High-altitude nuclear explosions (HANEs) allow an actor to degrade modern communications, either on the ground or in the sky. Closer to the ground, HANEs create a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) that could shut down power plants, cellular towers, and electronic devices. Higher in the sky, HANEs produce radiation that can damage or destroy satellites. If a state actor (or rogue element) decides that access to digital systems or the space domain is giving its adversary an unfair edge, it might decide to use a HANE to negate this advantage without directly killing a single human.
Also, later in paper:
Altitude is the key factor determining whether the most significant effects of a HANE are experienced on the ground or on satellites. . . Peak HEMP E1 occurs close to 75 kilometers (47 miles) above the surface and starts to drop off considerably after 100 kilometers (62 miles), as shown in Figure 3. . .Higher altitude HANEs, such as the previous U.S. test Starfish Prime at 300 kilometers (186 miles), affect a larger area but have a much weaker associated HEMP.9 These higher explosions will also have significantly greater impacts on satellites due to a lack of attenuation in the atmosphere, their closer proximity to many satellites in orbit, and the increasing field of view of satellites at risk with increasing altitude (Figure 1).
Later:
While one state could use a bevy of tools, such as cyberattacks and anti-satellite weapons, to temporarily disrupt satellite and internet access without permanent destruction, another state actor may consider the large, destructive effects a single HANE offers. . .Russia and its precursor, the Soviet Union, have a history of surprising scientific breakthroughs that upend geopolitics. . . In 2021, Russia destroyed one of its own satellites with an antisatellite missile, foreshadowing a future threat to the United States’ vast orbital communication infrastructure. In 2024, after withdrawing from multiple arms control agreements, Russia launched a satellite in orbit that could employ a nuclear weapon. . . China is also actively studying the effects of space-based nuclear weapons.
Just sayin’ because what do I know?
But let’s try to gain some perspective by comparing the power of Starfish Prime with what nature can do on a bad day.
AI Overview:
extreme solar storms, such as the 1859 Carrington Event, dwarf the 1.4-megaton Starfish Prime nuclear test. While Starfish Prime produced an unprecedented artificial radiation belt and intense electromagnetic pulse, natural geomagnetic storms created by solar activity trigger significantly larger, global-scale impacts on the magnetosphere.A comparison between the Starfish Prime blast and natural solar phenomena illustrates the scale of these events:
Starfish Prime (1.4 Megatons)Energy Released: Approximately 5.9 times 10^{15} Joules.
Mechanism: Detonation at an altitude of 400 kilometers injected high-energy beta particles into Earth’s magnetic field, temporarily increasing trapped electron fluxes and inducing a large-scale electromagnetic pulse over the Pacific region.
Effect Duration: Created an artificial radiation belt that degraded several early satellites (such as Ariel-1) over several months.
The Carrington Event (1859)Energy Released: Solar flares and the associated coronal mass ejection (CME) released approximately 10^{25} Joules—millions of times the total yield of Starfish Prime.
Mechanism: The massive CME compressed the entirety of Earth’s dayside magnetosphere, pushing the magnetopause boundary down from its normal 65,000 km to an estimated 7,000 km above the Earth’s surface.
Effect Duration: Induced global electric currents that caused telegraph lines to spark and catch fire, driving auroras as far south as the tropics.
Extreme Solar Superstorms (e.g., The AD 774 Event)
Mechanism: Based on radiocarbon records in tree rings, even larger historical solar storms dwarf the Carrington Event. If an event of this magnitude were to strike Earth in the modern era, the massive influx of solar protons would trigger geomagnetic storms producing a ring current index (Dst) so severe it would fundamentally overwhelm the global magnetosphere for days, likely crippling satellite constellations and widespread power grids.
And let’s not forget the wise words of Daarth Vader:
Interesting points! The earth could be hit in multiple ways.
That’s why it doesn’t seem kosher to me Tim. It’s not just creating a nuclear event in itself kicking the planet in the nuts. There is no EMP without the magnetosphere. What we call a EMP is creating a nuclear event in a sacred and sensitive part of our beautiful planet to manipulate a result in the magnetosphere for our puny selfish reasons. We don’t understand the result either. I read a opinion that there is maybe a half dozen people in the world that understand what magnetic flux is. They only understand the models. It’s expressed in numbers with lots of betas and thetas and epsilons. That’s not what the magnetosphere is. It’s part of our planet. They don’t understand what it is either. It’s beyond us. Playing with shit we have no right to. Taking risk with the world.
I’m all about tech. You don’t do things like this because. Just because you can do something doesn’t mean you do something. Pandoras box.
I get your point, Dog.
But since when did the security state or the military command ever consult with the common people about this kind of policy?
Over the years I have observed a few hints that a modern HEMP with large yield thermonuclear device might have devastating effects for all life on the planet. The most recent was colonel Larry Wilkerson who said as much directly in a show. He had direct knowledge of the testing as well as US capabilities including those unknown to the public. The thought is that that event has the possibility of altering the arts magnetic shielding from the radiation the earth is continuously exposed too. Starfish prime showed them exactly how risky nukes detonated on the magnetosphere is. Ditto for the Soviet tests. Actually humanity got lucky like a teenager in their first cat crash.
It has interesting implications for mutually assured destruction if true. It would mean any nation that has the capability of creating a large thermonuclear event where the magnetosphere is dense can end all life on the planet. No need to deliver devices to the enemy land. No need for accuracy. Right above your own nation would be just fine. No dirty bombs needed. No nuclear winter needed.
The outer space treaty is commonly believed to function to prevent nuclear weapons in space that will be detonated closer to the surface. I don’t believe that exclusively. I believe primarily it is a agreement let’s not mess around with nuclear events in magnetosphere which would reflect some small degree of sanity ..
Much noise was made about no weapons in space when the outer space treaty was made. It primarily was discussed in regard to the ridiculous moon ownership. I think the reality is they wanted to totally avoid the possibility of any more HEMPs hence the space is peaceful for ever rhetoric.
IMO neither the word HEMP or the word EMP reveal what a large nuclear event where the magnetosphere is dense is. It’s like pricking a imuleva pin and hoping he kicks what you want. Even that metaphor does not reflect the catastrophic insane risk such a event constitutes.
IMO these realities reveal the significance of the failure to stop nuclear proliferation. Certainly space should be free of all military capabilities because of the line is crossed it is only a matter of degree. Of course that is stupid also. The only same path is all nations should disassemble these devices dilute all enriched material and totally cease all enrichment world wide. But who knows. Maybe fast cook is more humane than slow cook.
dog the whole point of both my post and that of the linked article, was to highlight the fact that HEMPs and HANEs are highly customizable and therefore suitable for a carefully orchestrated BNS, so it doesn’t surprise me that the useful idiot Wilkerson is hysterically ‘flat-earthing’ the subject. It’s the same hysteria that believes Russia is going to invade or nuke Europe. The purpose of both hysterias is to create the lowest expectations among the populace such that when Russia just takes Ukraine everybody be like “Phew, that was a close call.”
Herding expectations. Herding nightmarish expectations and then exceeding those lowest of expectations. Setting a low bar. Everyone knows that when you go out to the movies, if you want to have a good time, you set your expectations for the movie to low. Unless it’s your favorite director something unusual like that.
The Air forces conclusions is that the different ionosphere models are contradictory none of them inadequate to predict EMP from a nuclear event.
Fundamentally al these studies have the wrong focus. The modeling and understanding is largely sought from the perspective of immediate consequences on the ground. The Ionosphere is regarded as static by the models not a ionic environment. While environmental effects of nuclear atmosphere events have some degree of attempts to understand effects on environment even these are woefully inadequate. When considering effects on the magnetosphere woefully inadequate becomes non existent because the magnetosphere environment itself is only understood by various contradictory models.
What is sought is a cook book recipe just as you propose exists while yhe effects on the magnetosphere environment itself are completely ignored. This is true of nuclear weapon models in general but it is willingness to regard the magnetosphere as static is perhaps particularly stunning because of the profound effects the small 1.4;megaton starfish prime event had on the magnetosphere. While my understanding of far from remotely conclusive I feel of anything the effects of a nuclear event in a dense magnetosphere environment is even more damaging than a event in a atmospheric environment. Non of these studies include magnetosphere environmentsl impact at all. They are attempts at cookbook recipes nothing more. The environmental impact remains unknown. In fact none of the models even concerns itself with environmental impact even though all life on the planet depends on the health of the magnetosphere to continue. Creation of nuclear events in the magnetosphere are basically the same as at the time of the starfish prime event of anyone is so mad to create one. Blind faith hope and prayer would be the basis for their presumed safety just as starfish prime. Why? Because.
This air force study goes a little deeper in try to understand the environment but only in search of a more accurate recipe one it honestly concludes is not possible because none of the models are absaloute. Even if s model was deemed absaloute only experimentation would confirm it. Opening Pandora’s box to see if. Shrodingers cat is inside. IMO criminally negligent from the risk to our species alone.
https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/AD1078210.pdf
Appreciate it dog. Starfish Prime WAS a test. We now have a clear example of what that size and height of detonation will do to civilization when factoring in the changes that have happened to civilization since that test. And the damage to civilization at that time couldn’t even be considered as bad as stubbing your toe. A half dozen satellites toasted, some shit went down in Hawaii, some auroras. The magnetosphere and ionosphere healed themselves.
The yield can be lowered and the detonation height can be raised as conservatism calls for.
Am I missing something?
I’m not advocating for this, I’m just looking at it.
Reante I think your perspective is quite reasonable. I myself am conflicted on this topic. Of course I would like a solution to be found. It’s looking to me like the worst possible outcome is probable. A thermonuclear exchange
I’m conflict as we seek solutions it can go either way. We judge things. Too passive. Too aggressive.
Nuances are important in our communication. The medium is the message this is very true in conflict also.
Creating a nuclear event in the atmosphere is certainly a aggressive thing. I believe creating that same event in the magnetosphere is more aggressive from a perspective of respect to the planet and humbleness. I don’t think we understand what we truly understand what the magnetosphere is. I’ve ebbs and flows in way we don’t understand. Nor do we care. We only understand if we do this we get that. Arrogance. I think the possibility of unintended consequences is high.
There is just something about it. I can’t find it in myself to advocate creating a nuclear event in the stratosphere of our beautiful planet for any reason.
Nuance is important in these times. Other ways to get the job done if that’s their choice. All we have is to true to ourselves..
dog I certainly appreciate your earthy feelings on the topic.
A dozen tons of 1mm steel ball bearings placed in random orbit might do the trick. No EMP with its possibility of unintended consequences via magnetosphere needed. It only takes one. Kinetic energy of a 1 mm steel ball bearing at a couple thousand miles per hour in more or less frictionless space is considerable. It would radically change military capabilities on the entirety of the planet as well as civilization itself. Compases would make a comeback on cargo ships. We will never know because Putin the p peacenik is unwilling to risk a thermonuclear exchange that granted would be extremely probable. No doubt his p peacenik philosophy has a strong moral and ethical basis that is extremely beneficial to humanity. The price is Russian capitulation.
That degree of peacenikhood by definition means that his loyalties are ultimately not to Russia, which by extension would mean that there is no real Russia if its head of State is not a committed nationalist, which as you know is my contention.
That said, I don’t expect him to capitulate even though he’s not Russian. Because the reality of the situation is that interesting.
It’s just that timing is everything. Look how the three suns, in the the two wars and the global fuel shortages, are coming into alignment in order to overwhelm. Because three is the magic number.
Space Balls!
Love it!
Lol
Hitting Russia’s largest refinery is a worry. Pushing things too far??
First Report: “Gasoline Shortage” Hits 50,000 Sq. Ft. Buc-ees Travel Center in Melissa, TX
“Today, the first report has come in claiming 60% of the pumps at Buc-ee’s in Melissa, TX are SHUT OFF and “most Diesel pumps are closed.”
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/component/content/article/first-report-gasoline-shortage-hits-50-000-sq-ft-buc-ees-travel-center-in-melissa-tx?catid=20&Itemid=101
Buc-ee’s are located on interstates, so I suppose that they get a disproportionate share of people wanting to fuel up related to longer distance vacation travel. So their pumps may be hit more than other pumps.
In the article, I noticed that at Buc-ee’s, the ethanol free gasoline was completely gone, and diesel was noted as being in especially short supply. Regular gasoline (with 10% ethanol) seems to be in better supply.
When I bought gasoline on Saturday at the place I usually go (in a suburb of Atlanta, near I-75), I noticed a lot of bags over pumps, indicating temporarily out-of-service pumps. But most gasoline with 10% ethanol pumps seemed to be open. I chose one such pump, but it only delivered 3 gallons of gasoline before it shut off. I had never had that happen before. I was able to fill up at another nearby set of pumps that also had bags over the pumps for diesel and no ethanol gasoline.
I thought about going in and reporting the issue to the attendant, but I didn’t.
Strange… I will be watching. This might be setting up the perfect situation for a “national emergency “ just in time for the elections. Leave nothing to chance.
One of the gas stations nearest to me has only been selling regular 87 for the last couple months. Been wondering what the deal with that is.
May I suggest you getting at least one PHEV into the broader family as per the local errands, assuming multi-gen household. Get it in ~good cond. under ~5-10yrs used from a direct dealer of say Toyota/Mitsu/.. and so on.. ( not German brands – compromised quality of batts etc ).
You never know, it could be mellow next few years still or we could suddenly drop into very nasty disorder reality even before ~2030..
Thanks for the idea. PHEV is a dual engine vehicle that can run for a short distance on either gasoline or electricity. An AI summary mentioned Toyota RAV4 Prime or Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (seats 7).
The price of a used 2021 Toyota RAV4 Prime seems to be about $28,000 (but there is a big range on prices). The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV seems to be newer. It seems to cost about $40,000 for a 2025.
Yes, but these are very overblown prices.
The Outlander came in the latest ( ugly re-design ) gen by 2020-21, hence the price spike, I meant previous yet several times revisioned model already say ~2017-2020.. and the price there would be 1/3.. way cheaper than stated prices from that AI.. early search of yours..
Toyotas are surely more in demand, I gather the EV freaks ” of Cali / Oregon / .. ” are sucking them out of every other US state used market.. Nevertheless, the issue with Toyota is that it has been introduced ( as PHEV ) decade/s later vs Mitsubishi or other brands, so it’s newer, hence higher price at the moment and it’s almost 2x smaller car inside anyway.
I was listening to Jeffrey Currie on the Mario Newfal podcast and he was talking about how we have a serious refinery problem as well on our hands in terms of capacity.
This is where you get data (and a chart) showing US refinery capacity.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MOCLEUS2&f=M
It had been growing until 2020, but dropped off with the drop in oil price and oil demand. Quite a bit of refinery capacity closed them.
This is a chart of US of operable utilization rates by month:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MOPUEUS2&f=M
This is a similar chart by year. Utilization rates seem to be mostly in the low 90%’s, both in the past and now.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mopueus2&f=a
The issue I am aware of now is that very recently, the US has tried to raise its own production, and discontinue importing some of the (already refined) gasoline and diesel we imported from Asia to the West Coast. But the US doesn’t have much “space” to increase refining capacity. It is already over 90%.
Interesting… thank you… I can’t remember if he was specifically referring to the US.
Just went to WaWa for some pure ethanol free gas, out of stock….glad I was able to fill my jerry cans before to store in shed. Also, stocked on fluids and motor oil along with filters ect. Spare parts, just in case. Buying a spare emergency bike to get around here in South Florida. Thank God it’s flat and everything is nearby just in case. I smell trouble ahead…like we had in the 1970s…
Someone from Northern Michigan wrote to me and said, with respect to the fuel outages:
It is a perfect storm of several factors.
1. The holiday weekend drained local stations.
2. Trump jawboned gas prices lower, ensuring we would use it all up.
3. Our refined storage supply has been emptied. Not only is this supply unavailable, but these storage facilities also served as distribution hubs where tankers can fill. Now all the tankers are forced to the refineries, which aren’t equipped to handle the tanker volume, resulting in serious logjams trying to get replacement supply distributed.
4. The refineries have been running full out to supply the international market, so there is no spare capacity to replenish domestic supply after the holiday draw… which we couldn’t load onto tankers even if we could produce it.
Here in Michigan, the Eastern side of the state has widely distributed shortages. The governor passed an emergency measure to suspend fuel standards, in an effort to increase eligible supply. But that won’t work when you are facing a national problem.
Sadly, we rely heavily on tourism. The season was already under pressure before this.
Wow!!!
I found this a good quote. Granted, it misses how resource constraints and Malthusian dynamics have played their role, but from an economic organization perspective, it’s hard to argue with:
https://x.com/fwrenzo1/status/2074013555662135454
>> The “Middle Class” was a 50-year fluke designed to prevent a communist revolution during the Cold War. Now that the threat is gone, the elites are systematically dismantling it. You aren’t “falling behind”; you’re being pushed back into the peasantry.
Yes, that’s certainly has been a mega-trend in recent decades to trim the no longer needed excess used to placate the western dwelling masses. The control-detachment went also into another applied toolz such as pornography, abusing substances, de-railed unions ( leadership structures ), over-all msm / ” pop culture ” targeted vector as in IQ / sentiment destruction within pop, ..
Arguably it began in the 1920s, because the depleted elites did not want to be killed by commies.
Stoopid controlled opposition quote. There’s a sucker born every hour and some poor suckers are reborn every hour on the hour.
Try systems theory for once in your life ivan. You make this place considerably dumber.
derp derp
I agree.
I think that baby boomers got an especially good “deal.” They got the benefit of lots of post war government spending and the availability of cheap oil, coal, and nuclear. They also got the benefit of falling interest rates from 1981 onward, leading to a huge amount of asset appreciation. This gave the impression that home prices would always rise, and stock prices would always rise.
Over the years, government benefits have been set at too high a level because it has been assumed that this temporary situation would last indefinitely. And that children and grandchildren would be as rich as the boomers.
I’m still confused as to why interest rates got to be so low between 1981 until 2002. Would you mind explaining again? Thanks… What is considered a normal interest rate number?
I think of 4% to 6% as a “normal” interest rate.
The interest rate depends very much on the inflation rate. To attract lenders, the interest rate needs to be higher than the inflation rate, so the lenders don’t “go behind” by lending. Lenders also need to consider the risk of default in their lending rate. Finally, lenders need to make money on the money they lend. So, common sense would say that lending rates can’t be too low.
You know that the monthly payment on a loan goes up with the interest rate. This is true with a loan for an automobile or any other kind of loan, such as a new factory.
Governments want to stimulate their economies. Interest rates were high in 1981 because inflation rates had been high, indirectly related to high oil prices. The Federal Reserve had previously raised interest rates to try to put “the brakes” on the world economy, to get try to get inflation rates down.
But once inflation rates were down, interest rates didn’t need to be as high. Of course, with lower interest rates, more people could afford cars and homes. Governments realized this effect, and lowered interest rates as much as they could. The rate they can set are mostly short-term interest rates. Longer term interest rates are more tied to inflation.
When the US went into severe recession in 2008, it went to close to 0% interest rates for short term debt. This encouraged excessive borrowing for use in speculation. Most leaders would like interest rates low, to stimulate the economy, and to keep the amount of interest the US government needs to pay low. But recently, inflation has been higher, and it has been impossible to keep rates as low as leaders would like.
Thanks so much for this explanation… very helpful
A cheap, abundant oil boom is the biggest reason for the low interest rates during the 1980-2000 period. Saudi Arabia, North Sea, Alaska, Mexico were all in their heyday and generally started booming around 1980. Money/credit is the financial proxy for energy surpluses, and oil is the master resource. Same as during the 50s and 60s. Easy, cheap energy means easy, cheap money means low interest rates. That’s organic growth. The 70s energy dislocation due to US peak conventional oil and was expensive, scarce energy and expensive money and high rates.
Yes, also since early-mid 1980s Soviets could not hide anymore they also ran into the ditch with their own first round of PO threshold.. ; moreover their relative demise even boosted – incentivized CHN to go full bore ~fake capitalist for few next (5x lolz) decades.
Later to be resuscitated by opening up new oil domains in distant RU areas ( using w. credit ) and more upto date drilling methods. Also on the new conditions of already separated former money-energy pits enclaves-regions be it Baltic ( now on EU life support ), -stans doing to some extent their own gas/oil projects on their merits/budget, and then failed UKR, finally that quasi inter-linked Belarus with somewhat sound econ.
thank you… very helpful Reante!
Very helpful Reante… thank you!
Reante…. how would you compare the 1970’s to where we are at now (post 2020)?
The 70s was the bumpy transition from international capitalism to globalization of the petrodollar, as necessitated by the capitalist hegemon, the US’s peak conventional oil in 1970. though globalization wasn’t complete until the USSR collapsed and was restructured into a globalized energy powerhouse.
2020 to today is the post- global peak oil late-stage Everything (financial) Bubble that rapidly devalues the world’s currencies via the Red Queen Effect which is named after the Red Queen in Through the Looking-Glass who tells Alice, “it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place.” But this catastrophic Hormuz situation is about to pop the Everything Bubble which will further destroy oil production due to demand collapse which in turn is due to economic collapse.
You asked me about the next three years. I’m on record as of last fall as guessing that within, say, a year from now, global GDP will collapse by 80% and hundreds of millions if not billions will die. That doesn’t mean it’s going to happen but that’s what I think is most likely. I know that might sound crazy.within a year
I also predict that this global war crisis will end with the Trump administration being removed from office early and the immediate implementation of a Global Peace Accord and the rapid rise of a genuine America First anti-imperialist politics that will slow the economic free fall to a more steady, relentless decline. I expect third world countries to start suffering total collapse within a year and developed nations also to start disappearing within 4 or 5 years
Fast collapse. You showed up just in time for the Big Show. 🙂
The mass prosperous lower-middle-class – which is what Americas seem to mean by ‘middle-class’ – was a product of all that gushing cheap energy, not state or corporate policy, surely? Ditto unprecedented mass-mobility by land, sea and sky.
It would be more reasonable to assert that the introduction of so many ‘free’ services – education, health, mass cheap public housing, and of course universal welfare and state death camps, pension schemes, was an appeasement of the masses, who did indeed threaten revolution post-WW2.
In Western Europe, the masses, of whatever class, got lots of vacation time, too, and very early retirement in some sectors, which the US seems to have missed out on (am I right about that ?) Then again, living on welfare, if it is adequate, is one long holiday.
Although people became so spoiled by all this that, by the 1970s, they were proclaiming the need for revolution to right so many horrendous ‘injustices.’ They also claimed that factory work was akin to being ‘in Nazi death camps’ ( that little gem comes from Italy, cited by Primo Levi).
Anyway, now comes the great correction.
Nothing to see here,just ZH posting this tweet in its article today on Ukraine, which is the first platformed mention I’ve seen of my long standing claim that the Hand needs Russia to administer all of Ukraine because of the legacy Soviet western Ukrainian nuclear power plants. Long range Ukrainian drones as the Problem that requires a long range Reaction and Solution.
https://x.com/husseinMBChB/status/2073333669507301464?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2073333669507301464%7Ctwgr%5Efca71a20ef1ded6e42e8d8505a95a240e37aa4cd%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Frussias-buffer-zone-ukrainian-border-expanding-result-worsening-drone-attacks-kremlin
As Christianity is making a comeback, and in Eastern Europe it never really went away, my hunch is that all the Orthodox majority areas of Ukraine will return to Mother Russia, while the Catholic majority areas will join Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia, based on their ethnic history. This should clean things up nicely for a few decades at least.
The Russian Government may not want to have to absorb a lot of anti-Russian Ukrainians, though, so they may prefer a rump Ukraine to exist and even let it join the EU.
Fair enough big T, that makes sense. Recently when pressed by I forget who, I allowed that Russia may need to allow autonomous regions to exist out West where nationalist sentiment is strongest, though it’s also true I believe that the bulk of the Ukrainian dead soldiers have come from Western Ukraine so that helps. So that line of thought was in line with yours. According to my DA thesis, the decommissioning is the priority and once that’s done specifics of governance don’t matter so much.
What was that, a nice little 5hr sleep or so? I’m now alternating 7hrs and 5 hrs.
It has been really weird lately. I am getting 8 or 9 hours per night and still able to doze off for a 2-hour siesta. It’s like I am making up for all those decades of burning the candle at both ends to meet deadlines.
Thank Trump’s Wars and AI (2 fingers of the Hand?) for destroying the job market and cutting my workload by 70% so far this year.
Hadn’t occurred to me that you might be being affected by AI. Nice restful period, gathering up your strength for Collapse.
I would never voluntarily retire, of course. Got to go down with the ship rather than gracefully pull into port for the last time.
But I can’t keep up my full tilt, full power, red hot, maximum pace all the time! 🙂
Incidentally, in the movie Let Him Be, the Lennon/Stacer character is supposedly living with his cousin in small-town north Ontario and running a chicken farm.
When I heard that, I thought to myself, so this is what Lennon meant by I am the egg man.” Nice touch putting that in the film anyway.
Koo Koo kchoo
Ha yeah great connection Tim. I imagine there are other references woven into it. I am the walrus was always my favorite Beatles song.
Tim
1-3 years I doubt there will be any “believers” left.
Remember what we learned with Palov’s dogs when they were trapped in the flooded basement?
It de-conditioned them. That’s what Trauma does.
You could be right, MOB. But I am thinking more of cultural Christians, not necessarily believers in a formal sense, or “God botherers” as Norman refers to them. But people who know where they come from and where their sense of right and wrong comes from.
Following 1917 and all that, the Russians went through vicious attacks on their religion and on the very fabric of their identity for decades, and after the Perestroika, the old religion bounced back to the point where the President wears a crucifix.
Just as the typical European Russians are defined by their Orthodox Christianity, so the Poles, Slovaks and others are defined by their Catholicism. This has only been strengthened by the trials and tribulations the 20th century dealt Eastern Europe. It was their faith and their observance of their religious traditions that allowed them to survive and not be consumed by the two great totalitarianisms that attempted to literally crush them out of existence – on based in Moscow and the other in Berlin.
As the song has it, like good old bricks they stood the kicks. The experience has strengthened their identity even as the postwar experience of affluence, freedom, consumerism, and permissiveness served to corrode and weaken the identity of the peoples of nations further west.
Few people today appreciate ( aware of ) that the 1917 year was just round #2-3 in ongoing mega trend, it started for them earlier in ~1905..
Then you had several further innings and detours even after 1917 to reaching more stabilized mid 1920s.. and then WWII ft. ~20-27M pop deletion.
>> The Russian Government may not want to have to absorb a lot of anti-Russian Ukrainians, though, so they may prefer a rump Ukraine to exist and even let it join the EU.
I suppose this is one of the reasons Russia chose a war of attrition. They are literally killing off the entire war-fighting-age male population of Ukraine and thus anyone who would wage an insurgency. Ukraine, for its part, should start conscripting the well-known newly moved in Pakistani and Chabad communities.
Both of you know so many things about that G-d discarded marshy trash places 😅 Amost like MG, I dare to say.
But do you know, how their unwashed females stink?
Back to the topic: both RNPP and KhNPP were actually built by imported Polish workers (well-kept secret – no references for you).
For reante: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khmelnytskyi_Nuclear_Power_Plant#AP1000_reactors
IOW – we will see…
how their unwashed females stink?
I know Paul McCartney sang “The Ukraine girls really knock me out,” but I didn’t know that is how they did it!
Not so important that they stink now that they make their living online from their bedrooms.
The Poles?! No wonder the Hand needs Russia to secure those Western nuclear facilities.
Here’s a not particularly reassuring relevant blurb about AP1000’s:
“In the AP1000 design by Westinghouse, the spent fuel pool is located inside the auxiliary building. It features passive safety systems that allow it to provide cooling for the fuel without requiring AC power or pumps for at least 72 hours, even during emergencies. Typically, the spent fuel stays in the pool for about 5 to 10 years to allow its decay heat to drop before it can be safely transferred to dry cask storage”
Apart from passive, there must be add. cooling loop gensets within that areal. Hence in crisis mode, army just blocks refineries and petrol stations across the regional hub, and prioritizes this task. Should work upto some threshold of over-all chaos be it natural or otherwise, span of ~5-10yrs for many/most scenarios of improvisation is doable, not guaranteed obviously. This policy could differ amongst union states though.
Of course they do. But the ability to guarantee that capability doesn’t exist without a DA. Hence the DA.
When the S hits the F, just dump any spent fuel rods in the Pripet Marshes. Lots of water there.
And as a bonus, they are already radioactive thanks to Chernobyl.
Not in my back yard please
The dream of financial stability is fading. Young people are turning investing into gambling
For some members of this generation, speculating on the stock market is becoming one of the last hopes for a better life. But high risk rarely leads to wealth.
Gambling has been a part of human history since time immemorial. For a growing group of young people, however, taking risks on the stock market is not just a form of adrenaline-fueled entertainment, but also one of the few paths to financial stability, which under normal circumstances seems unattainable to them.
Preston Coots is a typical example. He was only 19 years old when he invested his life savings—about three thousand dollars—in a stock he came across on social media. A few minutes later, its value rose by ten percent.
In an interview with Bloomberg, he later admitted that at that moment he felt like a genius who had managed to create money out of thin air. Although he has since experienced both massive gains and deep losses on the stock market, he has never completely left the financial markets.
This story perfectly captures the phenomenon of a generation that finds the idea of patient, conservative investing over several decades repugnant. At the same time, it is a logical reflection of the modern economy.
In this economy, risky bets have become a rational response to deepening wealth inequality and the increasingly unattainable dream of homeownership. This trend has not spared Slovakia either.
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
https://www.trend.sk/financie/sen-o-financnej-stabilite-bledne-mladi-menia-investovanie-na-hazard?itm_modul=react_trend_topbox&itm_brand=trend&itm_template=hp&itm_position=1&itm_cb_position=top_main_1
It has been the growing use of fossil fuels and generally falling interest rates that has allowed the supposed value of stocks and bonds to rise. The growing use of debt, especially by governments, has also helped. Also, growing investment by pension funds and 401k funds has driven up investment. New leveraged funds add to “demand” for stocks, especially related to AI.
The thing people don’t realize is that the total amount of finished goods and services actually produced each year looks like it is plateauing, and will soon decline. Regardless of the supposed total amount of all these investments, there is no way that everyone can cash out of them.
The attempt to cash out can reveal the falsity of the valuation of the whole.
For instance, one can walk along a very average London street of, say, 1930’s semis (very pleasant little houses by the way) and total up some £40 millions or more in notional value. The streets of London are indeed paved with gold!
But close observation of the market reveals that those few properties currently for sale are taking a very long time to sell, and presumably do so for lower offers than the asking price (estate agents admit this privately) and that’s if they sell at all.
And yet the government likes to talk about all the immense ‘housing wealth’ locked up in these properties With a view to tax, of course.
Inflation must be present to provide motivation to take risk. The see saw slams the other way in deflation.. Everyone tried to get to cash because cash isn’t losing value like before. Risk assets lose value as people try to get to cash. As you mention the ultimate cash out is the dream of exchanging cash for goods and services where there are lots of same because of abundant and affordable energy.
There is another issue too. As economy goes south pockets of wealth get consumed for living expenses. This forced liquidation of wealth may seem like misfortune but it can actually be fortunate. It forces liquidation prior to the stampede of both turning assets to cash and cash to goods and services when supply chains no longer supply them.
This creates triple indignation. The people who never had a little to save a pocket of wealth because of economy that never understood its own make up Those who saved but were forced to liquidate because of the ignorant economy. Those who hold on to pocket of wealth but there are little goods and services in the ignorant economy.
This creates the clamor for change and the belief there is always a solution drives it as well as victim perpetrator mind set. Occuring even now as we see a wave of socialist candidates be selected and traditional democratic candidates rejected. Anything that breathes that is not associated with trump will be elected in the fall. The elections are occuring now n the primaries.
What will not occur in my opinion is the education of the ignorant economy. Politicians by nature believe money can create results whatever their motives as they fight windmills. Nor does the conventional ideas about hyperinflation from currency debasement reflect reality. Those ideas are that goods and services still exist but currency to purchase them no longer has value. This is a very convenient and optimistic assessment of a section of the ignorant economy while not assessing the rest. None the less the newly elected politicians will print as they battle the windmills. When that fails catastrophically the ignorant economy will still not be educated. Victim perpetrator mind set does not allow it. How it will select a perpetrator after both Trump and socialism fail is unknown. Peak perpetrator. Any remnant of physical ignorant economy will be gone but the fundamental ideas and emotions that formed it will remain .
At here,
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2026/06/29/why-oil-shortages-may-bring-lower-prices-and-recession/comment-page-2/#comment-512685
Ivanislav talks about a few super duper tech which might save BAU.
I personally think they won’t be introduced until after a huge depression which will knock out more than 80% of world’s pop out from Industrial Civilization.
We grew the Civ in a wrong way so a nobody from a country nobody had heard off could mock Messi, and people in Papua New Guinea jungles could watch the soccer game sin a 99 inch TV.
So, until we reinstall discipline to 80% of world’s pop there cannot be an improvement.
Unfortunately for your irrational, idealistic, traumatized worldview, teevees trickle down because trickledown is the maximum civilizational Maximum Power Principle.
I haven’t got a steady occupation
And I can’t afford a telephone
And I haven’t got a stereo, radio or video
A mortgage, overdraft, or bank loan
The only way that I can get my fun
Is by sitting in the midday sun
With no particular purpose or reason
Sitting in the midday sun
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=995hFZcaDO4
I think we are well past global peak teevee by now. The younger generation are deserting that medium in droves.
History shows that transitions take many, many years. It is necessary to build mines and train workers. It is necessary to figure out supply chains and make them work.
I am afraid that Kulm is likely right that near term we are coming to a huge recession. There can be smaller groups working on new ideas, but bringing it all together quickly would seem to be a challenge.
We know that China was able to grow quickly, from 2002 to 2013, but China had cheap coal to work with. Also, the Kyoto protocol encouraged developed nations to send their manufacturing to low wage countries around the world. The lack of competition from the developed nations allowed a quick transition. The new transition will be much worse.
Are you using the term “recession” as euphemism for “depression”. Is there a difference between the terms? Since oil is the gateway fossil fuel and it needs to be cheap, will be first need to downsize the economy and the way we live in order to rebuild since there is not much left of the cheap oil?
Yeah it’s a euphemism. The economy is beginning to get downsized right now but downsizing doesn’t enable rebuilding in any way because economies of scale during the growth phase are part of what made oil cheap in the first place.
Reante how do you see things playing out in the next few years?
“If everyone demanded peace instead of another television set, then there’d be peace.”
– John Lennon
I follow Mark Crispin Miller’s weekly tragedy-fest, News From Underground, as it gives a bird’s-eye view of what’s going on the celebrity illness and obituary front. I seldom share anything from it, but today I see in last week’s report that Rod Stewart has had a major health event on stage during a concert, and Rod, as some of you may remember, was the guy who publicly vowed not to let anyone unvaccinated come to his Christmas Party. Still, we vaccine hostile folks will doubtless want to wish him a full recovery and many more happy Christmases to come.
Another well-known British “jab nut”, Jeremy Clarkson, is also featured. Jeremy, has disclosed that he was diagnosed with an “aggressive” form of prostate cancer. But then again, Jeremy has always been an aggressive sort of guy. This cancer diagnosis comes in the wake of serious heart problems in 2024 that necessitated the fitting of a stent, and the photo posted in the report shows Jeremy looking crinkly, disheveled and very much the worse for wear, as if all that fast living has finally caught up with him.
Miller’s researcher has provided a note:
Clarkson publicly supported “vaccination.” On August 3, 2021, he tweeted, “If you really want to know what I think: get vaccinated [sic]. It’s not a government plot [sic]. Governments can’t even mend pot holes.”
https://markcrispinmiller.substack.com/p/us-rod-stewart-needs-oxygen-mask
That was rather witty of Jeremy, I think. Sure beats Jordan Peterson’s “Get The DAMN Vaccine And Let’s Get The HELL Over This!”
But Jordan later had a change of heart and told Dave Rubin:
“Look, I got vaccinated and people took me to task for that, and I thought: ‘alright, I’ll get the damn vaccine. Here’s the deal, guys, I’ll get the vaccine, you f***ing leave me alone. And did that work? No. So, stupid me you know. That’s how I feel about it. So, now I have to get tested for COVID when I come back into Canada. I have to get tested before I leave Canada.”
There’s a famous Spanish proverb which Clarkson’s comment brings to mind:
‘The air of Madrid is so subtle (or sharp) that it can’t blow out a candle, but it can kill a man’.
Which we can adapt as:
‘The British government can’t mend potholes, but it can inject and kill you’.
Boris the Clown, indeed all those in Parliament, whom we took to be ineffectual jokers and grifters, did a lot of people in didn’t they?
Interesting, too, to note the delayed effect of the jabs which we are currently seeing.
Trump’s cabinet. Suzy Wiles, Pam Bondi and the husband of Tulsi Gabbard all have cancer.
lol—mass murderers—
lol some more
i never did trip over all those piles of millions of bodies lying in the streets you assured me were there xabier…
but that was back in the day when you were eddys bagman—eager to agree with every daft thing he trotted out.
I do miss the humour of it all now he’s departed.—all those rude words on the skoolyard wall.—such an original mind.
Murdered By The State
by Jacqui Deevoy.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Murdered-State-Jacqui-Deevoy/dp/1919384421
A silent genocide is happening in UK hospitals, hospices and care homes.
For decades, thousands of vulnerable souls have been secretly euthanised with ‘end of life’ pathways and killer cocktails of drugs without consent, without transparency, without justice.
In 2020, under ‘death protocol’ NG163, the blatant culling was ramped up. Since then, investigative journalist Jacqui Deevoy has focused on exposing this scandal while the mainstream media buried it.
In this book, 42 devastated relatives of victims reveal – in their own words – the truth about involuntary euthanasia.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
JOHN O’LOONEY: “Is this a modern-day Invasion Of The Bodysnatchers?”
Outspoken funeral director John O’Looney exposes the horrors he’s witnessed since 2020 and explains the excess deaths that have occurred since 2021 and joins the dots between what he’s seen and the organ harvesting industry.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1kGvmZGnBI
A “dead” person started breathing while an NHS surgeon was removing his donated organs. “Oh, it’s just the Lazarus effect”, he told a concerned nurse. Hmm.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
In the UK, it is now automatically presumed that you will donate your organs after death. Unless you specifically opt out, the eager state can legally harvest them, once you appear to be dead.
https://www.organdonation.nhs.uk/organ-donation-laws/
https://www.organdonation.nhs.uk/organ-donation-laws/organ-donation-law-in-england/
https://www.organdonation.nhs.uk/register-your-decision/
Dem
70 years ago I was chums with a nurse in a major teaching hospital. It was (relatively) common practice for doctors and nurses (including herself) to adminster pain killing drugs to allievate suffering (with a terminally ill patient) to the point where the drugs themselves ended life.
She was fully informed of this, directly and specifically asked if she was OK with it, and given the choice of doing it or not.
She never questioned it—it was part of the job.
Do try to stop this mass euthanasia BS
oh
—and if i get consigned to a care home—they can ”presume me dead” and harvest any bits of me that are usable…. and welcome.
that really would be the last place I want want to be.
LOL, LOL and thrice LOL!
They bagged them up and bunged them all in the ovens every night before you collected your morning milk and newspaper, Norman.
But the excess death statistics for the UK since 2020 reveal the truth for anyone who’s interested in learning about it.
Incidentally, I never did trip over all those piles of millions of bodies that the mass media and every government spokesperson told me were coming down the pike from the virus in 2020, Did you?
Let me jog your memory. As a Guardian reader, you’ll doubtless recall this:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/31/a-man-lies-dead-in-the-street-the-image-that-captures-the-wuhan-coronavirus-crisis
Was this street theatre production a Chinese version of the dead parrot sketch? Lying on the pavement in Wuhan, surrounded by people in biohazard suits who are happy to pose for a publicity photo, and stone cold dead despite wearing a mask!
Norman, as everyone here knows, you are lying when you assert that I claimed ‘millions of bodies’ were lying in the streets.
It would be better if you did not indulge so much in ad hominems and naked, foolish, lies, while pretending to be purer than driven snow yourself.
Everyone here also knows that the vaxxes caused millions of deaths globally, and inflicted serious injuries on many more. All one can argue about, at this stage, is whether this was intentional, or not.
A few months ago, I met a man whose daughter, very young, and as a paediatric nurse vaxxed to the hilt, still being given the Covid vaxx as a vulnerable immune-compromised, person, was dying slowly and painfully in a hospice.
Luckily, he had no idea at all as to the lethality of the injections, poor man. He told me she was a wonderful woman, full of love.
In the light of this your ‘lol’ eye-rolling levity is to say the least in very bad taste, and utterly disgusting.
If you are a quarter of the ‘thinker’ you claim to be, you might care to look at the numerous articles on the carcinogenic action of the Covid vaxxes published by Professor Angus Dalgleish, the London oncologist: but of course, you won’t, because that would disturb your complacent ignorance.
And the conservative estimate of deaths by Professor Emeritus Norman Fenton.
i often forget what day it is—and where i left my car on sainsburys carpark—
but i have a razor sharp memory for some things Xabier
i have no need to lie about anything—certain comments, (and I wont go into detail) land in my mind and stay there.
especially those emanating from your double act with eddy.
Your memory might not be as sharp as you believe Norman.
My recollection backs Xabier and it has from the very first time you twisted the words written. Maybe you are confusing Xabier’s words with Eddy’s, or even your own(it was the believers after all, that were screaming at everyone to do as told, or millions of people would die. They done as told and millions of people still died, but the believers still believe. How bizarre they are).
“i often forget what day it is—and where i left my car on sainsburys carpark.”
Thank you, Mr Pagett, for confirming that. By your own testimony, you would seem to be rather an unreliable witness.
No further questions, Your Honour!
We are online here on a blog, and the comments here should be searchable.
Type into your browser: site:ourfiniteworld.com “Xabier”
and you should be able to see all of Xabier’s comments back to 2012.
I have just searched: site:ourfiniteworld.com “Xabier” “millions of bodies” and nothing came up . I got the “No Results Found” response.
I tried site:ourfiniteworld.com “Xabier” “millions dead” and got three results, as follows:
Foolish Fitz says:
September 17, 2023 at 9:40 am
Before this upside, you would need a world war and all evidence(so far) points to a catastrophic lose, with many millions dead.
worldofhanumanotg says:
September 2, 2017 at 1:50 pm
Both the Soviets and Germans agree, the first winter was close enough by a hair, the first surprise attack almost worked, but since then it was “only” an issue of dedication of dozens of millions dead and dozens thousands of tanks, airplanes, several years of ordeal, to repel the bogged invasion which was now doomed exactly because of that scale factor.
Robert Firth says:
June 17, 2013 at 8:43 pm
The alternative to using the atomic bomb was to accept the surrender that Japan had already offered. The allies’ insane policy of “unconditional surrender” probably prolonged the war by over a year at the cost of more millions dead.
If Xabier said something along the lines of what you remember he said, you should be able to find the exact quote and when he said it. If you find it, please get back to us and I am sure Xabier will apologize and own up.
However, if you can’t find it, or can’t be bothered to look, but you don’t apologize and withdraw your assertion, we will all think you are not quite as much of a gentleman as you seem to think you are.
It is asking for trouble to go around accusing people of have having said something online years ago if you can’t trace the time and place when they are supposed to have said it. Human memory is fallible. We should all admit this.
I know a woman who has Down’s Syndrome in my local area and she can remember everyone’s birth date, telephone number, and car number. But most of us lack the ability to remember large numbers details that clearly. Let’s be humble, and we’ll get on, right?
Ahah! I have just replaced Xabier with Fast Eddy in the search box and eight results have popped out.
site:ourfiniteworld.com “Fast Eddy” “millions of dead”
One of these is from 2016 from Worldofhanhuman talking about millions of dead Russians in WW2. I one them is a dead end without any reference to millions of dead at all.
And Bingo!, the other six are all from Norman, claiming others have used the offending phrase.
Such as this:
Norman Pagett says:
February 15, 2022 at 2:28 pm
you should read comments in context. i do not despire or hate anyone–waste of time. Some of it is worth little more than laughter—spoons sticking to foreheads—Gates injecting us with iron filings. Millions of dead and maimed sheesh.
It could also be protein overdose.
AI tells me:
Summary: High protein diets, particularly those rich in animal sources like red meat and dairy, have been linked to an increased risk of certain cancers. This association is thought to be related to factors such as insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) levels, which promote cancer cell growth.
Connection Between High Protein Diets and Cancer Risk
High protein diets, especially those high in animal sources, have been associated with an increased risk of certain cancers. This connection is primarily linked to the following factors:
Key Factors Contributing to Cancer Risk
–Insulin-like Growth Factor 1 (IGF-1): High protein intake, particularly from animal sources, can elevate IGF-1 levels in the body. Elevated IGF-1 is known to promote cancer cell growth.
–Type of Protein: Animal proteins, especially red meat and dairy, are more closely associated with cancer risk compared to plant-based proteins.
Types of Cancers Linked to High Protein Intake
Type of Protein Source – Associated Cancer Risks
Red Meat – Increased risk of colorectal and prostate cancer
Dairy Products – Linked to higher risks of prostate and breast cancer
Conclusion
While protein is essential for health, the source and amount of protein consumed can significantly impact cancer risk. It is advisable to focus on plant-based proteins and moderate animal protein intake to potentially lower cancer risk.
——–
I also know that studies of people who live in Blue Zones (with very long life expectancies) tend to eat mostly vegetarian diets.
Studies of life expectancies seem to suggest that vegetarian (with dairy) and vegetarian with dairy and fish, come out longest. Vegan doesn’t seem to work as well; weight sometimes falls too low.
I eat a diet that is mostly vegetarian including dairy and a little fish. It seems to work well for me.
But people in cold countries find meat to be available year-round, so they often eat a lot of it. Also, animals can grow on land that is unsuitable for most crops. So there are trade-offs.
The Blue Zones story seems to be a myth. There was a lot of bad science in it. Read also Dr. Malcolm’s Kendrick’s books. He’s a retired NHS GP and is a stickler for the scientific method. He’s blogged for 15-20 years at drmalcolmkendrick.org.
I think Simon Fairlie’s 2010 book on ‘Meat A Benign Extravagance’ shows fairly accurately how much animal protein we could produce without feeding human food to livestock. Actually his title may be a bit misleading – dairy and eggs seem to be a more efficient way to convert inedible grass or food wastes into nutritious human food than red meat and poultry.
Great topical mini-thread, thanks.
In terms of dairy, also consider the locale per given brand. Usually for smaller or regional dairy operation you can easily get the info about their perimeter where it is chiefly sourced. Hence avoid operation in the low-lands with larger chem/pesticide/.. collection risk ( be it legacy ) throughout the soil profile. While ~highlands are usually the best bet, but here also issuing caution if it’s done sensibly, i.e not pastured on bare rock or something over the top kind of exploitation..
Now speaking of red meat it needs very lush environment and sensible stocking rate per land-size / potential, that’s why pastured brands are so expensive. So, don’t eat it from super markets ( if $hort ), get ~quality highland milk and broad-ocean fish instead ( !not ~closed maritime areal though: e.g. avoid NorthSea near the coast, Baltica, ClubMed, southern parts of Great Lakes, BlackSea-Crimea, etc.. similar ~enclosed spots near mega cities in Asia..
It’s not hard to figure out, although at our current global dev level over-reach, it’s always a lottery, as a sub or ocean vessel could anytime in emergency dump something nasty directly into the swarm of fish nearby, hence you get direct exposure then.. as the above described picky-informed end consumer anyway, hah.
Thanks for sharing. I became vegan in early 20’s and still am now at 55. My mom begged me as she was passing away from stage 4 Ovarian cancer. She had read the China Study. A documentary was made out of it called Forks Over Knives. The reason I kept going for so long was because of the cruelty of Factory Farms… 99% of the meat consumed in the US comes from factory farms. I have no issue with hunting or people eating the meat they raise (hopefully they raise kindly). I heard from a doctor on podcast that the number 1 cause of diabetes in this country is from cheese. I do have to take B-12 supplements as its difficult to get in large quantities from plants.
Jordan Peterson also tweeted to Israel’s president “GIVE EM HELL”
Noted!
I for one have never advocated giving HELL to anyone, including Israelis, Arabs, Iranians, Muslims, Jews, Americans, undocumented aliens, or tax inspectors.
I think that kind of rhetoric helped stoked the 1990s bouts of genocide/ethnic cleansing in Rwanda and Bosnia and probably every other similar event.
I also think it brings bad Karma on the people who broadcast it. Jordan’s daughter has reported that it feels like her family has been under some kind of spiritual attack. She might like to consider that demons will tend to flock to those who invite them in.
No doubt, some crucifixes a Bible, garlic flowers, a circle of fire around Jordan’s bed, and a good exorcist are in order. The dude has been dealing with dark forces.
“All these
8:38 things mean is that NATO is continuing with US direction and help and
8:45 intelligence gathering um in such a way as to make Ukraine an effective firing
8:52 platform without people.”?
John strikes me as a bit of a concern troll.
Incidentally, drb, has the gas situation changed at all?
Nope. Going there as soon as I finish eating because today or tomorrow I need to gas up and Tuesday I need to travel. 95 octanes only, 30 liters only. queues down from 4 hrs to 1.5 hrs. no queues for diesel. Apparently in Moscow the situation is close to normal. Locals understandably upset as our stations have been closed 3 weeks. Market frozen, no chance of selling any unused equipment. We are haying though. We had 850 liters of diesel and we are using them.
what a difference ten days make. There was no line, although the station had about 12 cars. Still only 30 liters, but all 4 pumps had gas. Diesel also. I am going to go there after Brazil Norway with canisters and get me 60 liters (I will have to drive around once). Tuesday I will see the M-8 situation, which I expect to be close to normal.
Hell yeah dude! Football comes first! All I got is the 15 minute yootoob highlights. And that’s a good thing. You’ll be in so much diesel again you can afford to use a splash for cleaning the dreaded knotters. Won’t have to climb up there and piss on em.
Well, Brazil Norway is a certified big game. I am on the fence on whether I should do the night and watch Mexico too. what the hell, if I get my 60 liters I will stay up for Mexico. It is raining anyway right now, so no haying tomorrow.
If I were Putin, I would be angry about the recent attacks. I would want to hit back and probably escalate.
It’s almost impossible to replace a president through procedure in Russia. Putin might get Prighozhined and it blamed on the west to start the festivities. All it would take is Intel to Ukraine. Thus hardliner comes in with a Martyr to avenge to boot.
Otherwise it’s peacenik Putin for five more years.
Worked for Iran.
Word in the street is that the era of low casualties is over, and that mortality at the front is at 2022 levels. So about five times (I estimate) what it was in 2023-2025. All part of the current escalation.
Russian MoD still reports the same number of killed Ukrainian soldiers, so at least one of the parties is lying:
https://mskvremya.ru/article/2023/1520-poteri-ukrainy-za-vremya-spetsoperatsii
It should be said that in the last 10 or 15 days there have been no significant infrastructure attacks. they are killing civilians every day of cours, and these are I think all autonomous drones with AI.
I spoke in Moscow with a Brit (Stimson?) who was jailed 7 years in the UK for fighting with the Novorussians in 2014. He still spends time on the front and told me he was attacked by drones twice. Once he was able to get into the underbrush which the drone could not penetrate and the operator exploded it, but it was 4-5 meters away and no damage was done. The second one there was no possible escape, he ducked behind a truck and the drone chose the truck. I came away with the impression that the second one was fully autonomous, with some stupid AI prioritizing trucks over humans.
This could be the plan unleash drones on us a whole lot cheaper than vaccines.
I remember you mentioned in a previous article about a year ago that Russia’s motivation to invade Ukraine had to to with too low oil price. Could it also have been that NATO was trying to expand eastward as Russia is very resource rich?
John Helmer says that Russian escalation is too late. Drones are terribly important now. The war is now against NATO, which is supporting the drone warfare of Ukraine. Russia has no interest in a long war against, what is essentially, NATO.
He could be right. Sea of azov limits supply routes. Kramatorsk fortress has kept any supply being established north of the sea. Thin strip to south getting wacked by drones. There’s a reason the ai prioritizes tricks. Cut off supply and Russia can’t hold the donbas.
Now they have downgraded oil trading from a high ended poker table to the slot machines . From a contract of a 1000 barrels to 10 barrels . You can now play with $700 and get wiped out .
” Chicago-based CME Group has said retail traders will be able to buy and sell contracts for just 10 barrels of oil — currently worth around $700 — with trading available around the clock, seven days a week, from the end of August.
The move comes after popular crypto-trading platforms such as Hyperliquid and Binance began offering retail traders 24/7 access to commodity-linked products. “
What they won’t come up with next! A way to get more money invested in the commodity market. Perhaps they get the prices up higher. Or make more money in commissions.
I take it that the people investing in these trades don’t actually have to take delivery of the oil.
Interesting how AI , like Norman, doesn’t believe in personal motivations of groups with specific goals for how things are the way they are. AI likes to cast blame on
self-organizing “systems” or “profit” for social ills.
ai: “Not intentionally — but yes, it has that effect.
Social media encourages:
identity politics
personal expression
niche communities
micro‑audiences
emotional content
insular norms
Social media discourages:
broad coalitions
shared cultural values
universal narratives
mass movements
collective identity
This is because fragmentation is profitable and unity is not.
So the outcome you’re describing is real — but the mechanism is economic, not conspiratorial”
Politics is over here and commerce is over there and they never ever intermix according to AI. And Norman, of course.
Exactly, it’s so retarded: “the self-organizing emergent phenomenon is real but it’s not human.” LOL. It has no structure. It’s all egregore and no embodiment.
All emergent phenomena start out as ideas whether they are human metaconscious ideas or the unconscious evolutionary trialling and erroring of biological intelligence. If they’re good, adaptive ideas, they get physically implemented. An organism grows adds a brain on to a distributed nervous system; globalization grows a Hand onto digitally distributed supranational Elites.
Whenever Mom and Dad might’ve been concerned about me when I was growing up, they didn’t talk about making parenting adjustments in front of me. I was downstream of that. Because that’s how parenting works best.
‘Comes the hour, comes the man’.
‘Comes the Mother of all Crises, comes The Hand”!
X hacking into the Hand’s latest zoom call and catching the opening ritual group intonation said three times, after which his feed was cut. You know the Englishmen in the Hand were thinking of Harry Kane the whole time.
“Crisis is the rallying cry of the tyrant.”
– James Madison
Or perhaps the Higher Power coordinates what happens, behind the scenes.
The whole Covid period had so many parts to it that it seems impossible that a group of humans could have come up with the idea:
1. It enabled the financial system to be bailed out, using lots and lots of government debt.
2. The student loan problem could be kicked down the road a while further by temporary forgiveness programs.
3. The population could be at least somewhat reduced using both the virus and the vaccine to kill a group of people who were disproportionately elderly or in poor health.
4. The pharmaceutical industry could be propped up financially.
5. A trend toward working at home was started, saving fuel.
Also, when the Kyoto Protocol was developed in 1997, I question whether those putting it together thought about the fact that it would greatly help the growth of China with its coal industry. A Higher Power, rather than a group of humans, makes more sense. The Higher Power works through the motivations of a diverse group of individuals. Both organizations that wanted to add overseas subsidiaries in China and India and those who actually wanted to prevent climate change could subscribe to this idea.
What about transnational power? Or are you referring to demonic type of influences (on a spiritual level)?
I think that the word supranational is the correct one in this context because supra means above and trans merely means across as with multinational.
Since the Hand is a group of humans then I gather that by Higher Power you mean a god.
You’re free to believe that a god usurps human free will in order to orchestrate industrial civilization on planet Earth.
Myself, I believe that if I can narrate the plandemic, then others can conceive of it and implement it from the top down. Because that’s just self-evident to me because it’s the same way on my farm. I make the rules with absolute power and everything and everyone must self-organize within those rules because they don’t have a choice. Except my wife. Complex hierarchy is 1% elite ordering people about and 99% self-organizing positive feedback loop.
AI is not a physical entity
it is a collection of electronic signals that learns from interaction with ‘us’…no more than that.
trouble is, the ‘unthinkers’ of this world remain convinced that ai will ‘do’ this or that in a physical sense, —it won’t.
my car is loaded with ”ai”—but unless i put power into it, my car will sit there as a lump of metal, going nowhere….As i drive it, it ”learns” from my driving habits..agreed…but it cannot make decisions without me, for its own purpose.—it wont do a terminator on me…
i can produce decent artwork, but lately ive been doing ‘ai’ art—i tell my computer what i want…and a picture appears 100 x faster than i could do it..so it saves me a lot of time…amd the results are amazing..but my mac doesnt just switch itself on and start delivering pictures at random—i have to tell it what to do–the more detail i supply, the better the picture.
the one thing i never do, and will never do, is tell it to write—ai writing is crap, which i would be embarrased to put out with my name on it…
…though i do have a conscience about overheating the planet with it.
Yes, we know all that. AI is just a higher level of computing. It needs energy and has dependencies, but you and everything depend on something else. You would not have been born if your mother had not powered herself with food.
What AI does is turn you from a worker into a manager. It can produce certain things for you at great speed – excellent art work, for instance. That’s progress of a sort, but it comes at a price – lots of extra energy is required to power the LLMs and their data centers. The Chinese are developing AI that used much less power. But how long can that continue?
Eventually progress collapses under the weight of its own complexity, of course.
well—i did say i have a conscience about my ai artwork overheating the planet–
and i wasnt joking about that, i have an acute awareness of the real cost that our lifestyle involves, to humankind in general…and have had for many years…people are producing entire movies with AI, I’m just producing 1 picture every few weeks.
my artwork comes at a price, knowing that doesnt stop me doing it, or any of the other things that are globally destructive..
AI of a sort has been around for decades, and it can do physical work.
Fiat Strada – Handbuilt By Robots (1979, UK)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEVTorBHhOo
that wasnt the same thing, and you know it
stick to reality
Oh, wasn’t it? You couldn’t get one without the other. Everything has its predecessors. Some of Elon Musk’s cars have rudimentary AI – but it’s far from safe enough yet.
12thc chinese fireworks were the exact predecessors of spaceflight
Norm how do you explain its ability to do visual art better than written art? Do you consider visual art to be less intelligent or more artificial by nature or perhaps both?
Perhaps humans are more fussy about the spoken or written word than the visual world, so we demand a higher degree of compliance with what we’ve been taught is correct grammar and good storytelling.
?
I have to say I’ve never been drawn to art but it’s probably mostly because I can’t draw.
at my level (which isnt particularly high) the art i produce is just industrial history material, which does not exist in any recorded form–If i ask AI to do a picture of Roman soldiers marching past where i live (which they did, 2000 years ago)…it will deliver that, but there is no soul or feeling to it—its merely an illustration and nothing more.
whereas words can carry depth and nuance of meaning–words can give a far more powerful image, because that image is in the mind of the reader.
Words, delivered by a great writer, can make you laugh or cry no matter how many times you read them.
Its not words or pictures that have ”intelligence”—its you, the reader that carries the intelligence of interpretation. If the reader is brain-dead, then it will have no effect of course.
Words can grab you, wring you out, take you places– But only if you have an open mind to it..pictures can’t do that.
Read Dylan Thomas—In my Craft or Sullen Art, to see what I mean. (or not, as the case may be).
there is a wonderful magic in storytelling, an artform all of itself…no matter what the context.
one of the exceptions in pictures would be the work of Edward hopper—but thats just me.
Thanks very much. I have to agree since I almost never look at visual art but read and write every day.
its certainly writing which is good for the soul, if we have such a thing—-words, either written or spoken, can paint pictures better than any brush or pencil
AI is not a physical entity.
And neither are you, dear Norman.
You may think you are, and the rest of the world may agree that you are, but without your human cognitive, emotional, and social traits such as consciousness, empathy to understand others, self-awareness, abstract language, and a capacity for creativity, you wouldn’t be human at all.
Killer insight: These traits are not physical, They are intangible qualities, albeit with roots in the physical world. In this respect, what makes you you is similar to what makes an AI system and AI system. You can’t have an AI system without a physical infrastructure on which to run the thing, and you can’t have Norman without his physical body on which he runs,
Moreover, both AI systems and humans, including you, Norman, are programmed. Humans need to undergo a lot of programming before they can make sense of the world and communicate with each other with more than grunts and basic gestures.
I would agree.
“fragmentation is profitable and unity is not.”
Every business needs to find a new niche of its own. This is why Russia, years ago, produced a very small number of products–such as refrigerators, stoves, men’s and women’s coats, and vehicle types and colors. With standardization, if one part broke, it was easy to replace the part and fix the product. Factories could crank out lots and lots of pretty much identical products, cheaply.
Like the old Soviet tractors whose bolt head sizes were different from the nut sizes so you didn’t need two wrenches or sockets of the same size.
That hefty agri stuff was probably ” carry-over ” from the over-all mil. doctrine necessity of ~field conditions repairable if possible.. Obviously, the other end of this equation usually means higher weight, end fuel consumption etc.
Soviets operating [ en masse ] landscapes did NOT have the need or pedigree for indiv artistic tiny farm-scale going into ~mass production ala [ Kubota B/LX/.. series ] .. , which we dig and love so dearly, lol ..
My next door neighbor has an old belarus brand compact tractor I saw him working on one day in his shop. He joked that he only needed one wrench to work on it because if a commie ever needed a second wrench he’d have to go borrow it from his neighbor.
I recommend following Christine on X and youtube. I’ve posted some of her videos before. Summary: estimated 5mbpd through the strait. As far as I’m concerned, that’s basically closed, with a minor delay in when we hit tank bottom. This situation is still really bad, you can’t take 15% of oil offline without enormous impact.
https://x.com/HormuzReport/status/2073065612373541249
Christine Guerrero reposted
The Hormuz Report
@HormuzReport
·
23h
BREAKING: Marine traffic, Kpler’s verified data directly contradicts Trump administration’s claims that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have surpassed 10 million barrels per day.
According to maritime tracking firm Kpler, there were 34, 48, and 38 vessel crossings over the past three days — far below the prewar average of 125-140 crossings per day.
Kpler estimates approximately 5 million barrels of oil are exiting the strait daily on average in June. This is half the U.S. official’s 10 million bpd claim, and just one-quarter of the roughly 20 million barrels per day that transited the strait before the war.
The numbers don’t add up. A U.S. official told Bloomberg this week that U.S. military support had driven a shipping surge. Kpler’s verified crossings data tells a different story. The Strait is moving oil again, but at a fraction of pre-war capacity.
So Trump administration is clearly lying.
So it doesn’t matter if it’s open because effectively open is closed. Strait opening open house and no one came. Iran does not have to take risk to keep strait closed because open is closed. The outcome will be the same with the only difference measured in days. Short of a miracle outcomes whatever they might be are not malleable.
Humpty Dumpty has fallen off the wall and Hormuz open house can’t put him together again.
Much lower state of economic equilibrium ahead
You would see the feathering matters a great deal if you were to slip into god mode again for just a minute and look at it as a managed event that’s being managed for a good reason.
With this particular issue… just about anything is possible. Nothing makes sense, and yet…. here we are.
It feels as if endless nearly-full-war would be the easiest functional state to manage events for….. and so, it probably is.
Yeah this suspended animation war theater is definitely the easiest functional state for managing the intiation of a global energy crisis that just takes time to emerge. And I can also see what you are suggesting – that it would follow that just continuing it endlessly — or at least through the end of Trump’s term — would seem to be the continuation of that easiest state. That would be a legitimate alternative to the BNS for sure. Gail’s intensified feathering mechanism rather than my sledgehammer with built-in feathering mechanism. Sledgehammer hammer with a deft touch. For me the sledgehammer just feels like a shock doctrine style necessity. I have a hard time really seeing a longer term, more steady state type feathering being politically tenable and able to adequately catalyze the restructuring that needs to take place. I am however starting to let go of the American Coup theory as much as it pains me lol. Starting to, but that might just be a function of the extended feathering. Fitz ain’t wrong to bust my balls over my failed 2 month long wham bam thank you ma’am BNS call. Like Gail says, people don’t want the story to end too quickly. She must be talking bout the women folk. General thrust is on the mark but reante got a premature ejaculation problem.
” So Trump administration is clearly lying.”
Not only Trump , but many others . I have been exposing the contradictions for ages based on figures . When in doubt look at the math –Matt Simmons .
My understanding is that there are two different approaches to counting that are being used.
If oil transported strictly through the Strait of Hormuz are counted, most people agree that the amount is about 5 million barrels per day.
The other way of counting relates to total oil leaving the region, using alternate approaches, including pipelines or trucks. On this basis, the consensus seems to be that 10 million barrels per day is leaving the area. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has a pipeline that can take a significant amount away. The amount that is transported is limited by port and shipping capacity at the pipelines outlet near the Red Sea.
There seem to be other ways of avoiding the strait, too. Oman has (or had before it was bombed) a pipeline that lets out farther south than the Strait of Hormuz, into the sea of Oman. But pipelines seem to be easily repaired. Iraq can export some oil northward, I understand. And, IIRC, Iran has a pipeline to the Gulf of Oman, exiting south of the strait.
Not a single vessel used Hormuz’s US-backed Omani corridor for over 12 hours.
What’s reported?
🔸Iran’s IRGC speedboat fleet shut down the Omani corridor entirely, per marine traffic data
🔸IRGC issued radio warnings to all ships this morning, then deployed special forces patrol boats
🔸More than 10 vessels have diverted to Iran’s own approved route instead .
https://x.com/jackprandelli/status/2073452592143778250/photo/1
Yes, as reported few dayz ago here about one cargo ship just crashing into sea bed (moving?) sand-dunes within that “Omani route” – well it’s genuinely safer corridor up north in that Iranian proper navigation channel apparently ( depth, more closer shore – islands for permanent optical signals, more collected geo-data, etc.. ) .. not just ” toll gate ” in the hands of “wrong guys” kind of question.
Each player in this conflict wants its own way. It doesn’t sound like the US-back approach is getting much of a following.
A must-watch video for everyone that thinks ore grade decline is a show-stopper:
To reiterate my position – we already know about multiple technologies and resource stores that can keep BAU going, *if* they are implemented at scale in time. These are some combination of:
* sodium batteries
* thorium or breeder reactors
* deep sea hydrocarbon drilling
* fracking in non-USA regions like Vaca Muerta
* deeper mining
So if China+Russia do this, IC keeps going no matter what happens to us, barring nuclear war, epidemic, etc. I think these are all matters of technological development, not basic physics.
So don’t worry, be happy … unless you’re in India or Latin America or Europe or Africa or the Middle East, or the USA or Japan if we have financial collapse etc etc etc.
Broadly speaking, we could get some kind of historical-antiquity scenario rehash, as one dominant region-culture disintegrates, while other/s soldier on ( +eventually continue to develop further ).
Recently, G. Diesen had this CHN Prof. on and to our credit he also called the EU as the very #1first horse to be sent into the glue factory ( hopefully based on his own analysis NOT copycat from this very OFW forum lol ).. as happened already with others ~public outreach persons already.
So back on thread, in that above scenario, US limps around, CHN still increasing its influence-wealth orbit, EU bloc goes into internal turmoil. Then comes the crucial period when US juiced out all the key vassals in reachable-legacy domain while can’t compete with CHN anymore much strategically, again there the history could fork into either mad desperate war attempt or rather just another round of regional+ abandonment, hence the East rulez ” over the globe ” under that sub scenario path.
(h)ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kygtd00Xbto
PS obviously the listed technologies / breakthroughs could alter the time-line somewhat but doubt about the “hard rail” of hist. predicament altering much in favor of the pre-destined loosers.. should they get some of these miracles applied first and in scale ( very unlikely )..
PS2 timelines are the most iffy subject, given Morgan’s graphs and on the ground fast dev in recent yrs: EU should be completely out of the picture by ~2035-40, and US perhaps hanging-clinging onto something till 2050+ perhaps..
as a i am wont to repeat—-
humankind has had only 2 ”breakthroughs”
1—the ability to make and control fire at will
2—-the production of ferrous metals and tools by design..
without exception, all human endeavour of any living or commercial consequence, hangs on those 2 factors…
I would think that the wheel belongs on the list somewhere. The concept of paved roads certainly helped as well. And the concept of cities, with a concentration of people and ideas helped, also.
a viable city needs preserved food—which means cooking/storing/transporting it in some way. killing/harvesting food is also most efficient with iron tools..
the wheel evolved to transport materials, which would have had a fundamental depence on the availability of fire i think
cut stone for paved roads cant be produced in quantity without iron tools
Yes, key food preserving:
– plain open ( wood/bast weaved basket ) cold storage/cellar -> most eff. by masonry hence using iron tools, as suitable natural cave structures are rare-few and dispersed haphazardly
– or vinegar and alike solutions, you needed a solid container ( ceramics / glass ), hence need of fire again, and digging that stuff precursors in the earth crust
– smoke-curing then again in need of fire and iron
..
.
PS note: fire pre-dates metalz/iron tech by very long time ( # ice ages ? ), people used stones inside personal traveling kit for sparks..
Control of fire seems to have happened over one million years ago, which is many ice ages ago.
The big breakthrough in storable food was grains. Read “Against the Grain: A Deep History of Ancient States.”
Fire and the lever huh Norm.? You got this: spokes on a wheel are just levers leveraging angular momentum like it’s air. The wheel is just a spiraling lever mechanism.
“Fire and the Lever: Breakthroughs to Extinction.” That’s the title of your next book.
Fire and the lever. The internal combustion engine as the hub of fire and the debt leverage as the fins, together making a turbine called the wheel of fire. That’s all this civilization is, levering the wheel of fire by enclosure: Roman civilization’s open wood fires is the difference between agrarian civilization and industrial civilization. It’s not the fossil fuels. As I recall a cord of wood will get you across the United States in a car powered by wood gasification.
Well, in antiquity, they were supposedly ( at several time spots ) not far off proper steam engine proof of concept designs, the metallurgy could evolve further if needed be..
The problem was likely within the over-all organizational-civ structure ( incl. various ongoing degrees of slavery concept ), relatively low pop density, not yet depleted topsoils in some key settlement areals – so hand work still brought big payoff ( while salting / other ~chem reactions also appear as their key prob ), also sciences set at varied social acceptance across ClubMed+ and under specific rulers aka not taken seriously long enough in some locales! And plethora of other contrib. factors – that’s why it needed to wait for another ~2.5-1.5k yrs plus to actually arrive in full swing.
the wheel is merely a form of lever
and to answer reantes point, fire enables us to convert explosive force into rotary motion by using the principle of the wheel-lever.
that would not be possible, other than at a very insignificant scale, without the use of ferrous metals
That doesnt detract from my previous comment about fire and iron—it merely adds to it.
Kinda like how in industrial civilization there were nuclear power plants and battery systems. Reaching ain’t grasping and grasping ain’t using and using ain’t mastering.
OK, if say next-gen ~non-rare elements batts are legit ( top industry honchos say mass-manuf it’s there now 40% out of 90% remaining work to do under 3yrs ) => then this batt tech works at the minimum [ as extension ] of current civ scaffolding, trends, ..
In other words it ( helps ) move the thresholds, goalposts for semi-collapse being imminent etc. by decades, centuries.. into the future.
Perhaps, ~futile when looking back in millennia scaled purview. I don’t dispute it.
PS similarly, for next gen reactors and other contraptions, although these are likely several notches of complexity above/away still..
I’d say beer/alcohol are commercially significant.
Wrong wrong wrong without exception all. human endeavour of any living or commercial consequence hangs on one factor when man turned his sights into using fossil fuels. Had man avoided fossil fuels the world’s population would be in balance now and is what got us into the mess we are in now.
Remember that Malthus lived in the era before fossil fuels were widely used. His major writing was in 1798. The population was already outgrowing resources, then.
The reason why we chose to use fossil fuels is because they were so much more effective than wind and water. This is a chart by Tony Wrigley.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/wrigley_annual-energy-consumption-per-head-1561-to-1870.png
Figure 1. Annual energy consumption per person (megajoules) in England and Wales 1561-70 to 1850-9 and in Italy 1861-70. Figure by Tony Wrigley, Cambridge University.
fossil fuels have no use until they are burned, in one way or another.
iron cannot be produced at scale without burning fossil fuels
I recall that graph, and the many interpretation joys it provides..
Amongst others:
Industrial revolution lag between areas-countries indeed in some instances of ~[ 150-170yrs ]. And the very quick make up for that in ” also ran ” countries, e.g. Germany and Japan in late 19th century in terms of raw econ output spiking up. While they failed ~immediately on the geopolitical realm vs that UK-US-(RU) alliances of the day or upto present in some aspects.
Fossil fuels are not only made from fossils.
They have lots of uses besides burning.
They can also be traded!. I’m told one can make a great deal of money by betting on their prices in the futures market.
They can be used as bargaining chips in international relations and power politics! As we are seeing recently.
They can be turned into plastics!
They can be a subject for political posturing! Politicians love to talk about oil, coal, gas, and our policy regarding them.
They can be left in the ground to show the world how ecologically pious we are!
It pains me to say this, Norman, it really does, but you’re wrong there!
Humankind’s first and most important breakthrough was………
wait for it…….
[drum roll]…..
The hammer!
Before fire!
Before the lever!
The hammer came first.
Hammerstones—heavy, naturally shaped rocks used for cracking bones and making other tools—date back approximately 3.3 million years, predating modern humans but invented by our remote human ancestors, the early hominins,
The definition of “human” typically applies only to members of the genus Homo, including early species like Homo habilis (the earliest toolmakers) and Homo erectus, as well as extinct relatives like Neanderthals. Anatomically modern humans (Homo sapiens) are the only surviving species in this group
The first species to use hammerstones were hominins, probably Australopithecus species, in what is now Kenya about 3.3 million years ago. Later, the Homo lineage—specifically Homo habilis and Homo heidelbergensis—relied heavily on hammers for crafting tools and butchering game.
Handled hammers appeared around 30,000 BC. The lever emerged much later, with the earliest evidence (digging sticks and balance scales) appearing roughly 5,000 to 10,000 years ago, and formally described in 260 BC by Archimedes.
Homo erectus is widely credited as the first human species to control and use fire. The earliest evidence of hominins maintaining flames dates back 1.8 million years ago at the Wonderwerk Cave in South Africa, a timeline primarily linked to Homo erectus.
So humans or humanoids were banging away in Africa processing their food with hammerstones for one and a half million years before showing even a spark of interest in using fire!
No need to thank me!
But do try to learn something new about fundamental human breakthroughs before pontificating to the rest of us.
Tying a rock onto the end of a stick maybe the greatest technological achievement in history.
Rocks weren’t a human breakthrough or even a hominid breakthrough they were a monkey breakthrough. Handled rocks (rocks with handles strapped to them) are Norm’s lever breakthrough.
reante—i’ve watched crows fly up with snails, and drop them repeatedly on a hard surface.
same ”technology” which was obviously learned millennia ago
but no ”breakthrough”—which is an overused word anyway
Nonsense! 🙂
How do you know the monkeys didn’t learn about rocks by aping the apemen?
It could have been a case of cultural appropriation, like Joy Reid’s blonde hair or use of a microphone, or the European and American use of fireworks and printing, which they got from the Chinese?
Actually, AI tells me my guess could might well be possibly correct:
Several species of monkeys have independently developed their own forms of rock-hammering and smashing. While it differs from the deliberate blade-making of early humans, they use stone tools to crack open tough nuts, open shellfish, and even harvest minerals.
The most notable tool-using monkeys include:
Bearded Capuchins (Brazil): These monkeys use the “hammer-and-anvil” technique to crack extremely hard nuts and fruits, a behavior documented to have been passed down for at least 700 years. They select heavy, durable rocks, lift them with both hands, and smash them against an embedded anvil stone. Interestingly, during this process they also smash stones together. This action inadvertently creates razor-sharp stone flakes that closely resemble primitive cutting tools made by early humans.
Long-Tailed Macaques (Thailand & Myanmar): Often referred to as crab-eating macaques, these primates use heavy rocks as axes and hammers to smash open tough, rock-hard coastal oysters and palm nuts. Scientists have even “excavated” macaque stone tools, finding evidence that they have been using these sites to process food for decades.
Similarly, among the primates, archaeological evidence shows chimpanzees have been using rock hammers and anvils for nut-cracking for at least 4,300 years.
There is no evidence I could find that suggests any of these species were using rocks 3 million years ago or more.
How do I know? Because monkeys also used levers, and levers are on the same level of tool use as rocks. When we’re talking about the human lever breakthrough, we’re talking about advanced use of the lever, which has only got even more advanced with the wheel. Although it gets more interesting than that because logs were wheels before wheels and rocks were wheels before logs.
Norm that crow technique is like inverted tool use, using the biggest tool ever.
Speaking of crows, this morning I’m stooping to hunting crows from the top of the shipping container. That’s why I’ve written so many comments this morning, I’m stuck here til I’m sure the chickens have finished laying. Couple days ago the crows cottoned to the laying nest in the coop and have been walking right in and roughing up Mother a little bit who likes to sit on the eggs until I come get them, in order to keep them from the squirrels. Lost half the eggs two days ago and all but one yesterday. The crows are too smart though and hanging around in the trees over yonder but staying away from the coop. Really I need a hunting blind otherwise it’s gonna be cat and mouse forever.
Been taking the time recently to dice up the squirrels nice and fine with the broad axe and the chickens are really going to town on them now. Before I was hoping that they would figure out how to use their feet as levers and step on the squirrel parts while they rip and tear but as it is the body parts just get lifted up in the air and they struggle to get enough purchase on the food.
Reante, you have my sympathies regarding the crow problem, And the squirrels have my sympathies regarding their you problem.
I feed the local crows every morning. I live in a narrow canyon-like valley and so I only ever get one family of crows visiting. I feed the parents year round and their kids in the late spring to early autumn, After that, their own parents drive them out of the nest and the neighborhood.
At this time of year, they wake us up about 7 am while perching on the utility pole that overlooks the kitchen window, I give them whatever the cats have refused to eat as well as any kitchen scraps that they may find tasty.
If I kept chickens, I don’t think I could afford to be so generous with the crows. But I quite like having them around. The other biggish daily avian visitors are one or two black kites that compete with the crows for small animals, and three or four herons that take small fish from the streams and tadpoles from the paddy fields. But the crows, being omnivorous, do very well on fruit and vegetables too from growers that don’t use sufficient netting.
When we’re talking about the human lever breakthrough, we’re talking about advanced use of the lever
Likewise’ when we’re talking about the human rock hammer breakthrough, we’re talking about advanced use of the rock hammer.
Early humans crossed the threshold from simply using found rocks to deliberately modifying them. While some monkeys and apes use rocks to crack nuts or shellfish, early humans, or more specifically their ancestors the hominins, started intentionally fracturing stones to create razor-sharp edges 3.3 million years ago. This marked the dawn of the Stone Age, separating hominins from other primates,
The parallel with your”advance use of the lever” theory is exact, and I hope you will be able to see that in both cases, the advance represents not just a refinement in technique, but a fundamental intellectual difference between human users of hammers and levers and all other animal tool users. Not every use of a stone is advanced stone hammering, just as not every use of a lever is advanced levering.
Agreed Tim, about rocks and levers.
Reason allows us to be confident that monkeys, which have apparently been around for upwards of 40M years, have been using rocks and levers for at least that long or they wouldn’t have become monkeys in the first place, just like homo sapiens sapiens wouldn’t have evolved without making use of fire. Just like how human population is always a trailing indicator of food supply. Soft-determinism. Biology is a product of its existential environment. Human metaconsciousness has the unique ability to further soften that soft-determinism with ethics.
Of course the deciding factor is whether these ores can be extracted and processed (or not) with less energy. Kevin discusses the need for more concrete and of course the ore needs to be elevated by 2+km to reach the surface. There needs to be much more pumping capacity which can never stop.
I was involved with Homestake in South Dakota to see whether some low background experiments could be situated there, and only 1 mile down the temperature was 125F. He is talking about mining 140F+ rock.
I can see high temperatures quickly become a problem.
I expect that it takes a huge amount of energy to extract resources at these deep levels. Most of the resources discussed are metals and other minerals. The only energy resource I heard mentioned was uranium, so I suppose electricity could be ramped up, using this methodology, but I would expect the EROEI would be poor.
What today’s economy really needs is cheap oil and cheap oil, to make the economy operate. I don’t see these advances getting us in this direction.
It sounds like today’s economy is finished as we run out of cheap oil But it’s so difficult to imagine what comes next and ascertain the timing of its demise. I was listening a few years back to Art Berman describing in a video the 4 pillars of our current civilization. These include fertilizer, steel, plastics and cement (all requiring oil – the gateway fossil fuel). There is also a climate factor that is concerning. As civilization collapses and we lose the aerosols from fossil fuel burning, the planet could warm up to an additional 2°C of equilibrium global temperature very quickly. This is based on the work of James Hansen however what’s so frustrating about him and other climate scientist is they don’t discuss the end of cheap oil. Instead he points to the loss of aerosols mainly (so far) due to ocean commercial ships having more emission controls. This means that doing a good thing creates more warming because in cleaning up the air you also get rid of the “good aerosols” which reflect the sun (mainly thru clouds and this has a big impact across the oceans as the air is more pristine). Hansen noticed a big jump in temperature from 2015 and he thinks its because we are losing the aerosols that have kept the planet cooler than it should be. He thinks the IPCC is greatly underestimating this risk. Gail, it would be interesting for you to track this with your data particularly China as climate scientists fail to talk about end of the era of cheap oil. I prefer following realists like yourself and some geopolitical analysts. There is one other area of concern in regards to the planet and that is the methane hydrates in the shallow waters of the Arctic (particularly in the seas above Russia. These releases could bring on a lot more heat in a short amount of time. Natalia Shakhova and Igor Semiletov have done extensive studies of the ESAS. I highly recommend checking out their studies. I feel they were treated very badly by the science community.
When funding only goes to those that support the dogma, you preselect the result and end up with “scientists” who are charlatans and fools.
In grad school, I was thoroughly unimpressed with most science professors and their research, and the students were even more pathetic. Most of academia is borderline fraud. Please take anything from this group with a major pinch of salt and a heap when it’s in a politically charged subject like climate science.
Wise words, Ivanislav.
I remember that James Hansen said a lot of things were going to happen that didn’t subsequently happen and then the upholders of the dogma prefer to ignore or forget them than to hold Hansen to account.
For instance, he reportedly predicted that by 2018 the Arctic would be ice-free, and Lower Manhattan would be underwater.
From the Wayback Machine from 2001:
From Story Weather by Suzy Hansen
[Reporter Bob] Reiss spoke to Salon from his home in New York.
Extreme weather means more terrifying hurricanes and tornadoes and fires than we usually see. But what can we expect such conditions to do to our daily life?
While doing research 12 or 13 years ago, I met Jim Hansen, the scientist who in 1988 predicted the greenhouse effect before Congress. I went over to the window with him and looked out on Broadway in New York City and said, “If what you’re saying about the greenhouse effect is true, is anything going to look different down there in 20 years?” He looked for a while and was quiet and didn’t say anything for a couple seconds. Then he said, “Well, there will be more traffic.” I, of course, didn’t think he heard the question right. Then he explained, “The West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water. And there will be tape across the windows across the street because of high winds. And the same birds won’t be there. The trees in the median strip will change.” Then he said, “There will be more police cars.” Why? “Well, you know what happens to crime when the heat goes up.”
And so far, over the last 10 years, we’ve had 10 of the hottest years on record.
Didn’t he also say that restaurants would have signs in their windows that read, “Water by request only.”
Under the greenhouse effect, extreme weather increases. Depending on where you are in terms of the hydrological cycle, you get more of whatever you’re prone to get. New York can get droughts, the droughts can get more severe and you’ll have signs in restaurants saying “Water by request only.”
When did he say this will happen?
Within 20 or 30 years. And remember we had this conversation in 1988 or 1989.
Does he still believe these things?
Yes, he still believes everything. I talked to him a few months ago and he said he wouldn’t change anything that he said then.
https://web.archive.org/web/20110202162233/https://www.salon.com/books/int/2001/10/23/weather/
Wise only if one considers logical fallacy as wisdom.
It is well past my bedtime, so I will leave you with the following:
Strictly speaking, logical fallacies are errors in reasoning that render an argument invalid or structurally flawed. However, in practical human communication, what is technically a fallacy can overlap with wisdom, intuition, or effective rhetoric when the goal is persuasion, decision-making, or navigating social realities rather than winning a strict debate.
https://www.reddit.com/r/NoStupidQuestions/comments/1lq9kt3/can_some_logical_fallacies_in_some_contexts_you/
But in ivan’s case there is rarely overlap, including this one. The scientific foundation of industrial -scale greenhouse gases forcing climate to a relevant degree is sound. It is not dogma.
If we all die off, we can perhaps solve the climate problem starting many years in the future. But this solution is not one anyone wants. There will be no future generation to save from climate change.
But in ivan’s case there is rarely overlap, including this one. The scientific foundation of industrial -scale greenhouse gases forcing climate to a relevant degree is sound. It is not dogma.
Oh dear, I hope we don’t have to go through the entire climate change debate again.
I agree with Ivan’s comment above:
“When funding only goes to those that support the dogma, you preselect the result and end up with “scientists” who are charlatans and fools.
“In grad school, I was thoroughly unimpressed with most science professors and their research, and the students were even more pathetic. Most of academia is borderline fraud. Please take anything from this group with a major pinch of salt and a heap when it’s in a politically charged subject like climate science.”
I agree with every word of it, and the sentiment, and the punctuation too. I greed with it because I have felt exactly the same way when forced to interact with some of these science professors—although there are also plenty of excellent science professors in fields such as chemistry, geology, botany, meteorology, and engineering.
The fact is, it is difficult to get into climate science or to remain in it if you don’t kowtow to the dogma. Dozens if not hundreds of excellent climate scientists have been hounded out for just that reason. If you aren’t aware of that, I could give you plenty of individual case histories. But before wading into that, you should be able to imagine the situation based on how dissident scientists and medical people are treated if they refuse to kowtow to the vaccine or virus dogmas – a smart lad like you.
Moreover, I disagree with your implication that “The scientific foundation of industrial-scale greenhouse gases forcing climate to a relevant degree is sound. It is not dogma,” is a serious attempt to refute Ivan’s contentions that most of academia is borderline fraud and that climate science is a politically charged subject.
I could spend hours or days explaining why I also disagree with your view that the scientific foundation of industrial-scale greenhouse gases forcing climate to a relevant degree is not dogma, but I don’t want to try everyone’s patience, particularly Gail’s, by diving into climate yet again.
However, it is important to note that whether or not it is dogma is irrelevant to what Ivan was quite correctly IMHO saying about academia and the subject of climate science. For this reason, I think your latest comment falls somewhere between a straw man and a red herring. I don’t mean to be provocative, but that is my honest impression.
The reason it is irrelevant is that, whether a belief is accepted as dogma (a principle or set of principles laid down by an authority as incontrovertibly true) and whether it is objectively true or false are fundamentally different concepts, To be a dogma, a belief merely needs to be held dogmatically. It can be true or false or something that can’t be proved either way. So, I think you have introduced a false dichotomy there by arguing that just because a fact is sound it is not a dogma.
But please correct me on all the above if needed, because I am just a simple man, working with my hands…..
Professor Valentina Zharkova disagrees.
The Little Ice Age Which Has Already Started
https://principia-scientific.com/professor-valentina-zharkova-and-the-little-ice-age-which-has-already-started/
I debunked Zharkova’s false theory here last year in a manner such that nobody here could argue with the debunking. Her theory is false because she wildly exaggerates the negligible effect of the sun’s revolution around the solar system’s barycenter. Most false theories are based on foundational thinking mistakes resulting in catastrophic failure of the systems theory.
I think we are in unknown territory right now in terms of adding so much greenhouse gases in such a short time however, its interesting to see what’s coming next as we reach the end of affordable oil. And oil is the gateway to the other fossil fuels. This is where I wish scientists like James Hansen would address. He’s already getting backlash from the established science community for his recent papers, etc. I’m not wanting to fix anything but just curious. Also we are the end of this interglacial period and supposed to be moving into glaciation but of course that all took a wrong turn starting with modern agriculture (and going bonkers after industrial revolution). There was a 2021 study from Cardiff linking Antarctic iceberg melt to initiating ice ages. So in other words, still a lot of unknowns however, I agree with you that this warming is not looking good. I think by knowing we are not in control, we can keep mind much more open to better understand what’s going on.
Thanks. James Hansen is internationally renowned because he’s ignorant of peak oil (perhaps willfully who knows?). TPTB weaponize anthropogenic climate forcing in order to cover for peak oil collapse by extending the timing of collapse in the public sphere out beyond the impending peak oil collapse, as well as delay peak oil collapse by shifting marginal ‘virtue’ culture demand away from oil which has created consumer demand for the alternatives financial bubble. No famous people can talk publicly about peak oil, only ‘peak oil demand,’ because if peak oil got a foothold mass panic would ensue.
What’s he getting backlash for?
I wouldn’t take our unwillingness to critique your debunking as any form of conclusive proof that you were correct – although I suspect you were. I don’t think any of us at OFW are experts on barycenter effects.
The scientific community roundly debunked her work leading to a paper being retracted in 2020. But she keeps going back to the old drawing board and coming up with new angles to debunk. That’s the marvelous thing about science. Nobody gets to have the last word. There are always more questions to explore.
He’s getting backlash for his temp and sea level rise forecasts which include the aerosol effect. And this is from the main stream scientists.
Thanks ks. Well that’s interesting, if I understand it correctly – and do correct me if I’m wrong: assuming his modeling is otherwise reputable, Hansen is further out on the cutting edge than the Establishment in incorporating the end of global dimming from civilizational collapse into his modeling, and the Establishment can’t go there because that’s taboo, which makes me wonder if you’re wanting him to incorporate peak oil into his systems theory in order to strengthen his justification for including the global dimming dynamic into his modeling.
I see several issues:
1. Humans outcompete all other animals, because of their better developed brains. This was indirectly made possible by human’s control of fire over one million years ago. There may have been other steps even earlier, such as getting marrow from the thigh bones of animals. Better nutrition, without chewing all day, and the need for big teeth and big gut allow the brains of humans to develop in ways different from animals. Because of this issue, human population tends to grow and grow, until the quantity of resources per capita falls too low, or pollution issues become too great.
2. Even if population dropped down to say, 5%, of current population, if there were enough resources available (that is inexpensive, easy to use energy resources), human population would explode again.
3. The availability of food is closely tied to the fossil fuel we use. Without fossil fuels, we cannot eat. Agriculture uses diesel for farm work and for transportation of food to markets. Electricity is not a substitute.
4. Our so-called “renewables” are simply fossil fuel extenders. We cannot have them without fossil fuels.
5. There are huge lags involved in CO2 emission accumulations. Even if human population could be reduced to 5% of where it is now (and similarly fossil fuel use), it would not make a difference for many, many years,
6. I have seen enough of the “scientific process” to figure out that whatever is proven is whatever will be most beneficial to the field the study comes from. “Peer review” is intended to keep research following the desired outcome of the day. If jobs that pay well are in the field of “climate change,” you will find all kinds of stuff written about the subject.
7. Any transition to any other fuel base than fossil fuels is close to pie-in-the sky right now. Perhaps there is a possibility that some advances can be made, but any major transition is likely 100+ years away. Whole systems would need to change. Right now our system is about 20% electricity, 80% direct use of fossil fuels. And all of our electricity indirectly used fossil fuels in making the system it is in. Also, the electric grid is a major impediment to electricity expansion. It is very dependent on fossil fuels, too. Also, parts made in China.
8. Our entire biosphere is a self-organizing system. It tends to heal or work around parts that are problems. The climate has been varying greatly over the years. We don’t have any responsibility to “fix” the system; the system will transition the way it needs to in the future. The system works through tiny difference in offspring and “survival of the best adapted” to ever-changing conditions. God seems to be behind the current system; we don’t need to play God.
Very nice. Thank you. I hesitate to add anything but I will. I have always like the ideas of the book lives of a cell. I have found it to be accurate. One of the greatest expressions of God is experienced through science. It proposed that humans have a special place a perhaps the equivalent of a nervous system of the planet. Exceptionalism? Perhaps. But I do believe we have a responsibility not to play God but to understand him within the extent of our limitations. We are not very good at it myself included.
Yes, and now with the in-rush of data from that new telescope ( Vera Rubin’s in Chile ) about the Universe, the gazillion of galaxies out there..
It ( the reality) all gets vibes of controlled ” Petri-dish ” kind of experiment conducted by higher level universe – entity and so on. Meant in non-religious mechanistic sense.
https://rubinobservatory.org/
https://rubinobservatory.org/gallery/image-releases/ocean-of-stars
I grew up in an Atheist household however, I’m Agnostic. I am drawn to Christianity and all my closest friends are Christian but I haven’t felt that spiritual connection yet. Gail, I love how you bring spirituality into your work and are not trying to fix anything but just trying to understand and accept what is going on. Most cannot handle the information you are sharing as its too scary. Is there any Christian literature that inspires you to continue looking for the truth as you have been and not be discouraged?
You may get something out of this video on practicing the presence of God, or then again you may not. But you might at least get some cooking hints.
Thanks I will check out
it is widely accepted than many hominids were creatures of the shoreline.
that being the case, the food most easily accessible would be shellfish—which dont run away or bite back, but are a source of high value protien….children on a shellfish diet get better brains as result—which is what early human mothers would feed them on.
women would have been the first toolmakers—needing to open shells…
on the next part—////2. Even if population dropped down to say, 5%, of current population, if there were enough resources available (that is inexpensive, easy to use energy resources), human population would explode again/////
no–a population that small would only have trees as a ”fire-energy” source, there wouldnt be the collective manpower for anything else.
our sole energy source would be the biomass we grew—nothing else.
ks, welcome.
The OFW commentariat is mixed on the climate change issue, from denialist (ivan), to agnostic (Gail maybe, it’s hard to tell exactly), to believer (myself). Some of us here have talked about the end of global dimming factor now and again that you mentioned, that will come with industrial collapse and spike the temperature. Nicole Foss incorporated such a spike, and climate change more generally, into her convergence of crises analysis. The Climate and Economy blog also does. The undenial blog too I think.
Climate change operates on a longer timeline than the financial and energy collapses so naturally it’s more of a background issue. Beyond the Non-Public Degrowth Agenda, nothing can be done about any of them, as and by the time the spike from global dimming or arctic methane releases make themselves known, we’re not going to have weather forecast anymore, and we’re just going to be grinding out Collapse if we’re lucky, and in a more extreme and challenging climate.
The hand is getting ready for negative interest rates once interest rates are set to negative 10% the oil price will be forced up and bau will continue for a lot longer than we realise.
Rate setting can’t go much below zero without blowing everything up. If they want to devalue they’d just go back to ZIRP before it’s too late. After it’s too late deflation will force it back to involuntary ZIRP.
Reante: I think climate and overshoot are playing out now. I am way passed thinking we will fix anything and just watching with others who are not afraid but just curious. Thanks for those blog recommendations as I want to get more deeply into the conversations that combine energy/geopolitics with climate/overshoot.
Pleasure. Climate is definitely playing out but not yet with an intensity relevant to civilizational collapse like with peak oil. Is climate an aggravator to peak oil collapse already? Maybe a little bit. Could that change to a lot in a few short years? Sure. But in a year from now I personally don’t expect that you and me would even be having this conversation because of peak oil collapse.
Know that those other two blogs are deficient in their systems analysis of peak oil collapse relative to this blog, and I doubt that they are even superior analysts of the climate issue than this blog community, though the coverage is more extensive and the participation more willing. I think I’m the only frequent commenter here who is a believer and is willing to talk climate though I don’t keep abreast of the developments anymore. I do know that they’re talking about AMOC right now. The Honest Sorcerer blog also does climate as I recall.
I would worry a lot more about the AMOC than climate in general. But, here again, it is doubtful that anything can be done about it. The gulf stream seems to change over very short periods of time–ten years or less. This recent article says that no immediate tipping point seems to be in sight.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/greenland-meltwater-adds-to-amoc-weakening-but-updated-model-finds-no-tipping-point-in-sight/ar-AA27d9ne
It makes no sense to talk about climate change without addressing the big “elephant in the sky” called geoengineering—yes, I’m referring to the chemtrails that people fail to see, even having them right before their eyes.
I believe climate is less and less a natural phenomenon. Heat waves, biblical floods, ice storms, cyclonic winds – today, all of these can be, and are, man-made. And they’re very useful for promoting the narrative that we have to get rid of fossil fuels because “they’re killing the planet.”
Even if that were the case you still agree that climate change weaponization is in service of coping with peak oil collapse, right, so what’s the problem?
The problem is that they’re poisoning me, and i’m afraid I have a natural distate for being poisoned.
Being selfish, I know.
It’s not selfish, just personal. I’m personally happy to see that chemtrails in my area are still way down since the plandemic.
I certainly don’t mean to make it seem like I’m onboard with the DA. I’m absolutely not onboard with it. When I defend it or celebrate it I’m just defending or celebrating its intelligence.
From a political realist’s perspective, it’s diffiuclt not to be somewhat on board with the DA. Anything is better than the fast and uncontrolled collapse that we most feared here in OFW some ten years ago.
The “plandemic” made me realize that there really was a plan for the controlled demolition of the current system.
I don’t have much to object to in any proposal that helps prevent chaos, but I do find useless, unacceptable and even diabolical to poison the air, the soil and the animals with chemicals.
I simply don’t get it. (Unless, of course, chemtrails are just another diversionary tactic, like flat-earth or ivermectin.)
The chemtrails are a huge component of global dimming that keeps a lid on the true state of the watming. They are the intentional component. We know that from the spike in temperatures the few days after 9/11 when they grounded all flights. It stands to reason that one of the ancillary functions of 9/11 was the Hand finding out how effective the chemtrails dimming program was. And it was proven to be very effective.
AI:
“During the three-day grounding of U.S. commercial flights after 9/11, the average diurnal temperature range (the difference between daytime highs and nighttime lows) increased by 1.1° Celsius (2.0° Fahrenheit). This widening was caused by an increase in daytime temperatures and a decrease in nighttime cooling resulting from the absence of heat-trapping aviation contrails.”
Then after the plandemic global temps spiked and I wonder if its linked to chemtrail reduction.
AI:
“Global temperatures experienced an unprecedented spike between 2023 and 2024, pushing the Earth to its hottest years on record. During this period, global warming significantly accelerated, increasing at a rate of roughly 0.35°C per decade over the past 10 years, compared to less than 0.2°C per decade prior to 2015.The recent unprecedented temperature jumps and continuous heat streaks are attributed to a combination of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, reductions in cooling aerosol pollution, and natural climate variability like the recent El Niño/La Niña cycle.”
I get why you’d be on board with the DA. Any normal person would be. I’m just anti-civilization and don’t believe that the inevitable collateral damage (the means) from managing collapse (the end) is justified. But I get that it’s a reasonable and positive cost-benefit analysis for the Hand, especially given that the ultimate goal is to denuclearize the civilization.So from a reason -based perspective I’m on board but in tracking it I’m in no way advocating for it except when I’m being tongue in cheek about it. The vaxxes almost killed both my parents and my brother got colon cancer at 50. Hand be like, hey we got them premium medical care and we saved their lives and besides they wouldn’t have been born in the first place without us so you can’t really say nothing. That’s true too.
I have been following this guy for a while now. He focuses on collateralization of assets via their conversion into a tokenized system which in theory avoids the problem of debasement of our debt-based currencies. This might explain the “need” for all these data centers.
If you fall behind on your mortgage payments, the bank repossesses your house through a complex legal process. Does this tokenized system accelerate wealth transfer and concentration through these convenient tokens?
He may not have factored in the criticality of energy in all this. Eg., will farmland actually become less valuable if there is not enough diesel, fertilizer, or availability of spare parts for the tractors to grow food?
https://milesharris.substack.com/p/they-turned-land-into-money-now-they?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
One place where Harris goes wrong is with this statement:
A sensible choice would be to choose to focus on developing the productive capacity of the economy, by allocating new credit selectively to small and medium sized businesses. Firms that are far more labour-intensive than the capital-intensive multinationals. This would boost economic growth, real wages and the ability to repay debts.
This means adding more services. In fact, our big problem is with physical resources, and the need for an abundant supply of cheap energy to extract resources, as they become more depleted and as population using them grows.
Yes, tokenization may be used to make our debt towers taller, but interest payments tend to overwhelm the system. Lack of physical products seems likely to bring the towers down. The economy is bound by the physical system that gives us food and transportation.
GeoffMiell
1 day ago
The US SPR volume, as at 26 Jun 2026, was 325,655 kb (change -5,536 kb/week), which represents 45.6% of full SPR capacity. The US SPR is now at a level not seen since May 1983.
The US is committed to releasing 172 million barrels from the SPR on a loan basis. This will take approximately 120 days to deliver based on planned discharge rates. The 172-million-barrel SPR drawdown will reduce the SPR stock level to about 243 million barrels (34% of full capacity), a level that has not been seen for more than 43 years.
At the current rate of US SPR drawdown, the 243 Mb floor level will likely be reached by September-October 2026.
Per EIA data, US commercial + SPR crude oil inventories, as at 26 Jun 2026, were at 734,014 kb (-9,311 kb relative to 19 Jun 2026), at the lowest level since May 1984.
USA is a NET IMPORTER of crude oil, but a NET EXPORTER of petroleum products. That’s a critical distinction!
The US can never be oil independent because it will always need to import heavier crude oil to make diesel, the lifeblood of the global economy.
By any measure, data indicates the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) has not resumed to ‘normal’ marine traffic flows, and is unlikely to be for many months.
While ever the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) remains substantially constrained there is NOWHERE ELSE that can make-up the substantial global crude oil production shortfall. Not Canada, not Brazil; not Kazakhstan; not Venezuela; not Guyana!
Will marine insurance providers allow empty tankers back into the Persian Gulf? Will ship owners allow their ships back into the Persian Gulf? Do ships’ crews want to go back into the Persian Gulf? I’d suggest confidence in the sustainability of the MOU is low.
The world is rapidly draining petroleum inventories. Audited data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) reveals that global inventories suffered an astonishing daily drawdown of 6.3 million barrels per day throughout the duration of the conflict. The vast majority of this operational burden was borne by developed economies.
The developed world has now depleted its entire economic safety margin.
The world will need to learn to make do with significantly less global crude oil supply soon.
Fuel prices are likely to increase dramatically within weeks as more global commercial oil/petroleum inventory buffers deplete to “operational floor levels”, regardless of whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens or not.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aR_pBweTf44
Best comment from this video
“Fuel prices are likely to increase dramatically within weeks as more global commercial oil/petroleum inventory buffers deplete to “operational floor levels”, regardless of whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens or not.”
We will see,
It seems like they woo have to at least in the short term. Unless we are already in a depression and they are covering it up. The stock market it’s at all time highs…
I understand your thesis and I think it is correct in the long term but it just seems that in the short term with government intervention the price needs to go up.
I see fuel prices rising in the next few months and then falling to very low. Unless we are in a great recession already. It has to happen governments have added so much cash to the economy it can be absorbed by oil. Look around in Atlanta does the high prices seem to have slowed everything down? I don’t think so… consume consume consume.
Influenced by Mirror on the Wall, I have been browsing Nietzsche and finding him heavy going but very sensible. In my youth, I was influenced by Russell’s over-harsh critique of Nietzsche’s philosophy. Now I am thinking that Russell was motivated be envy as much as anything else. I expect Nietzsche would have thought that.
These are not my favorite AI philosophy videos, but they help explain the Big N’s thinking to us laymen/lay people/lay persons. This one is on 4 things you should never reveal and certainly not on the first date:
There are four things you will be tempted to share — and every time you do, you hand someone a weapon. Friedrich Nietzsche understood a truth most people never learn until it’s too late: the world does not reward honesty, it rewards control. In this video, we expose the four things you must never reveal to anyone — not your closest friend, not your family, not the person sleeping beside you — and why silence, not confession, is the true mark of a strong mind.
This is not academic philosophy. This is a brutal, modern breakdown of how power actually works — how ambition gets sabotaged the moment it’s announced, how pain gets exploited the moment it’s shown, how strategy gets defeated the moment it’s explained, and how weakness becomes a button anyone can press once they find it.
This video link is not showing up for me. These sound like good ideas to me. My mother always told me that no one else wanted to hear about any health issues or any other difficulty I might be going through. They want someone else to listen to their problems. I have found here that many commenters can offer good insights, coming from different life experiences.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8P7uzSnvS8
4 Things You Should Never Reveal to Anyone — Friedrich Nietzsche
0:34 Think about the last time you trusted someone with something real. Maybe it was a dream that you hadn’t finished building yet. Maybe it was a wound that you thought had healed. And somewhere along the way, that same thing was used against you.
1:11 The strong man is not the man with the loudest voice. He is the man who has learned the discipline of silence.
1:15 Let’s begin with the first thing. You must never reveal your true ambition. The moment you tell your true ambition, you invite two kind of people. The ones who will try to slow you down out of jealousy and the ones who will try to get there before you do out of fear.
2:00 The second thing you must not reveal is your pain.
2:18 There is a certain kind of person who does not want your pain to end.
2:29 Suddenly, they are kinder, gentler because they have a role to play.
2:52 The third thing must never reveal is your next move.
3:11 Nietzsche believed that believed that power belonged to those who acted while others were still talking.
3:18 Every army that has revealed its battle plan before the battle has lost more wars than it has won.
3:45 Never reveal what truly controls you. Not your weakness, not your trigger, not the one thing that can break your composure in seconds.
Thank you Gail! That was the video I was trying to post.
Nietzsche was ignorant of the yin and the yang because he wasn’t good enough. Nested inside his darkfield ‘enlightenment’ sits next-level internal open space of true enlightenment, that knows no weakness, no fear, and faces no negative consequences for truth because there are no negative consequences in that space, there’s only change.
And as always it comes down to politics. Nietzsche built his entire dark philosophy by observing the social politics within civilizational hierarchy. Just like Thomas Hobbes did. The both projected their personal dissatisfactions onto their ‘philosophies’ when doing that is the opposite of philosophy. Dissatisfactions are informative but they’re not generative. And he the mind of a young zealot. From devout Christian to atheist.
What darkness sits nested inside the whitefield of true enlightenment? Regression. Don’t nothing come for free, including the maintenance. Let the come from aging and nothing else, with the aging being the natural dying of the ability to perform the maintenance. Respect for elders is rooted in respect for the quality of their maintenance.
Below is more favorable view of Nietzsche, engaging your critique.
I am absolutely not up to making it, but my AI chum who’s fun to chat with, who goes by the name of Grok, has had a bash at it.
——-
Nietzsche’s philosophy stands as one of the most vigorous attempts in the West to stare directly into the abyss of existence without flinching — and to dance anyway. Far from mere political projection or youthful zealotry (the classic Christian-to-atheist arc), his work is a sustained yes to life’s full polarity: creation and destruction, ascent and descent, strength and the honest reckoning with weakness.
Your point about yin and yang is well-taken. Nietzsche operated in what you call the “darkfield,” relentlessly exposing the shadow side of morality, resentment, and herd comfort. He saw civilizational hierarchies not as petty dissatisfaction (though personal suffering sharpened his eye), but as arenas where the will to power — the drive to overcome and affirm — plays out. Like Hobbes, he diagnosed the political and psychological realities of rank and power, yet unlike Hobbes he refused to settle for a Leviathan of stability. Instead, he pushed toward the Übermensch: the one who integrates and transcends those dynamics through self-creation.
This “darkfield enlightenment” does not deny the brighter, open space you describe. Nietzsche’s amor fati (love of fate) and eternal recurrence are precisely exercises in fearless affirmation: facing change without fear of negative consequences, because one wills the whole cycle. There is real lightness and openness here — a joyful wisdom (fröhliche Wissenschaft) that celebrates becoming over static being. His apparent zeal is the intensity of a mind clearing idols so something higher can emerge, not ignorance of balance.
Where your critique highlights regression, aging,
maintenance, and respect for elders as the nested darkness within true enlightenment’s “whitefield,” Nietzsche offers a complementary strength. He revered the Greeks’ tragic wisdom and the noble types who knew how to maintain greatness amid decay. He warned against the very regression you note — the “last man,” the exhausted nihilist who lets maintenance fail into mediocrity. True nobility, for him, includes the discipline of ongoing self-overcoming, which naturally honors what is well-maintained (including the hard-won wisdom of those who age with dignity).
In short, Nietzsche wasn’t “good enough” to reach a frictionless enlightened space free of all consequence — few are — but his philosophy equips us to navigate the costs with courage rather than denial. Dissatisfactions became generative in his hands: fuel for diagnosing decadence and forging new values. He gives us tools for the darkfield that make the open space more habitable, not less. Readers who wrestle with him often emerge with greater respect for life’s full rhythm — yin, yang, maintenance, and all.
That tension you describe is where his enduring power lies.
Like both Rousseau and Ayn Rand, I wouldn’t want to be likened to Nietzsche in any respect. Dunbar’s Number demolishes Nietszche in one fell swoop.
I’ve never read post-Nietzsche Ayn Rand, after she learned to think and became anti-Nietszche, and probably never will read her but she and I probably have quite a bit in common as Objectivists strictly basing our philosophy in Reason.
Here’s a 28min interview of her on Nietszche:
https://youtu.be/U6gV1MUSXMg
Like both Rousseau and Ayn Rand, I wouldn’t want to be likened to Nietzsche in any respect.
There is some ambiguity in the above sentence.
And I say this purely as a grammar nerd! 🙂
The most natural reading or way to parse it would be:
“Just as Rousseau and Ayn Rand would not want to be likened to Nietzsche in any respect, neither would I.”
But I suspect that isn’t your intended meaning. You are thinking of something along the lines of:
“Just as I wouldn’t want to be likened to Rousseau or Ayn Rand, I wouldn’t want to be likened to Nietzsche either.”
Or:
“I wouldn’t want to be likened to Rousseau, Ayn Rand, or Nietzsche in any respect.”
Fun.
I meant the first, natural reading of it, and, despite the technical grammatical ambiguity, the context in which the statement was made makes that clear.
Firstly, I was informally quoting what Rand herself said at the beginning of that interview – that she wouldn’t want her philosophy to be likened to Nietszche’s in any respect.
Secondly, I reflected upon the fact that both Rand and me are Rational Objectivists.
Thirdly, you know that as an animist I’m a fan of Rousseau.
She was awesome in that interview huh? Making Nietszche loo like a freeloading, parasitic little bitch.
Thanks for the clarification.
I initially took the sentence as meant to be read in the first “natural sense.” And I would have left it at that if you had not mentioned Rousseau.
By Rousseau, I assume you meant the philosopher Jean-Jacques Rousseau, and he died in 1778. But he would never have heard of Friedrich Wilhelm Nietzsche, who wasn’t born until 1844. So he wouldn’t have been able to express the sentiment that he “wouldn’t want to be likened to Nietzsche in any respect.” That’s why I rejected the original natural meaning of your sentence.
Of course, if you are an animist–and I don’t mind what consenting adults get up to in private!–you could reasonably claim a certain kinship with Rousseau, who saw humans as animals who had once lived in a state of nature. It is easy to imagine Rousseau, as a deist, being sympathetic to animism if he had had a chance to encounter it, which of course he didn’t as it wasn’t fleshed out as a worldview in his lifetime.
Nietzsche was not an animist—as he did not literally attribute spiritual souls to inanimate objects or animals—but he frequently deployed the concept of animality to critique modern civilization and explored a proto-panpsychist view of reality.
Nietzsche argued that humans are essentially just animals that have been severed from their natural instincts by civilization. He saw societal rules and Christian morality as a process of “domestication” that forces us to repress our wild drives, making humanity the “sickest” and most interesting species.
He also rejected the idea that the universe is made of dead, lifeless matter. Instead, scholars argue his concept of the Will to Power hints at panpsychism, the belief that psychological features are ubiquitous in all of nature, both organic and inorganic. He believed the physical world is ultimately driven by forces that possess internal, experiential properties.
In that sense, the two dudes’ views of nature and man had much in common. However, their philosophies were totally opposed in that Rousseau championed egalitarian community and the natural goodness of humanity, whereas Nietzsche advocated for aristocratic individualism.
I would put these contrasting philosophies down to their very different upbringings and social backgrounds.
Rousseau was orphaned at birth by his mother’s death and raised by an emotional watchmaker father in radical Geneva, who fed his imagination with romantic novels.
Conversely, Nietzsche’s upbringing was defined by strict Lutheran piety, his pastor father’s early death, and a household of women in conservative Prussia.
What this tells me is that we never truly outgrow our childhood traumas–no matter how much philosophizing we may do. If we are fortunate, we may learn to live with them and not take them too seriously.
A critique of Ayn Rand’s philosophy, Objectivism that I looked up at Reddit stresses that it “is frequently criticized for its extreme emphasis on radical individual self-interest, lack of methodological rigor, and dogmatic dismissal of alternative perspectives. [Note: Sounds perfect for you! :)] Critics contend these concepts are difficult to implement without triggering social abuse or collapse.” [Note: Nobody seriously suggests modelling society along Rousseau’s or Nietzsche’s philosophies. If that was done, social collapse would probably follow in short order.]
Another comment I found at Reddit said: “Rand intended to be taken seriously – her books were meant to flesh out a philosophy in the Nietzschian mold of rejecting nihilism. She offered up what she believed was an answer to the question of meaning in a meaningless universe.”
If that’s so, why did she reject being likened to the German philosopher with the comically huge mustache? Could it be because her ideas were closer to his than she would care to admit? It is widely said among those who say such things that Rand was heavily influenced by Nietzsche, particularly in her early work.
I’m going to stop here as it’s bedtime again. But I’m wondering what you find particularly attractive about Rand’s philosophy? No need to answer about that unless you want to. I haven’t studied her work at all–just read the odd article about her here and there. I have a dog-eared copy of the novel Atlas Shrugged that I picked up for next to nothing at my local second-hand book shop years ago, but I have never been able to make it past the first few pages.
Thanks Tim.
Firstly I just want to mention that I replied to you on the climate change topic yesterday morning I think but for whatever reason Gail never wants me to have climate change conversations with you. Either she thinks denialism is your sacred cow at risk of kneeling over (which is disrespectful to you) or denialism is secretly her sacred cow. Needless to say I don’t appreciate Gail pulling that sh- because it’s not the first time.
I referred to Nietszche’s early influence on Rand’s work before Rand learned to think in my first comment.
I also said that I’ve never read Rand. And I also said that because she is also an Objectivist who based the fundamentals of philosophy in Reason, her and me have quite a bit in common. No doubt we also have plenty that separates us.
You don’t seem to want to address the excellent reason-based drubbing she gave Nietszche’s elitist, parasitic philosophy. If you don’t think it was an ethical drubbing you can just say why.
Regardless of childhood trauma, philosophy needs to be judged on its own merits and not on speculation about childhood influences. If you disagree than that makes you a subjectivist by definition and since I’m a member of the vast minority camp of Objectivists, the twain shall never meet. 🙂
Thank you so much, Reante, for a nicely considered answer, And I am sorry I didn’t do my homework by looking into what you said more deeply, and by not looking at what Rand said at the link you supplied.
I will do that when I get some time, probably later today. From now, I am going out to dig potatoes as they are ready to come up and if I leave them any longer the summer heat will ruin them.
Sometimes Gail disappears my more “inciteful”posts but she usually leaves the insightful ones. I regard her as less of a censor than a second chamber, like the Senate or the Upper House, that can block legislation or refuse to ratify it if the Lower House, me, gets it wrong. She has saved me from embarrassment and potential flame wars on several occasions.
While not wanting to get into the ins and outs of the climate debate right now, I would put it to you that your “virus denialism” (which I am beginning to embrace although I remain agnostic due to ignorance) and my “climate denialism” are comparable stances. In both cases there is a huge establishment running a propaganda campaign and profiting from driving and stoking public fear, large-scale perversion of the scientific process, and wide-ranging persecution of dissident scientists, public officials, and anyone with a high-profile public persona who dares to question the dogma.
Express any doubts about any aspect of either climate or virology orthodoxy and people will come out of the woodwork and draw cartoonish caricatures of you as a Denier! Conspiracy Theorist! Heretic! Blasphemer!
Because of the above, and because you are such a well-read and independent thinker, I am surprised you are not more skeptical about the whole climate change issue. On the other hand, I am confident that, being such a smart lad, you will figure out what we know, what we don’t know, and what we can’t logically claim to know about these things to your own satisfaction one day.
Tim there was nothing inciting about my post yesterday. I don’t appreciate you calling me a lad in that context that assumes that I haven’t put the work in on climate change. I said many times before that just because climate change is being politically weaponized in service of managing peak oil collapse doesn’t mean that it’s not true in and of itself. It’s an egregious logical fallacy to think otherwise. That said, science establishments, which are political establishments, are supposed to attempt to repress unscientific political movements like climate change denial if that denial runs contrary to the society basing public policy on good science. That also said, the science establishment can be right on some things like anthropogenic climate change and horrifically unscientific on other things like germ theory, although I use that example with the caveat that germ theory, though completely wrong, is a far more functional theory for an industrial civilization to hew to than is terrain theory. LOL. Welcome to the shitshow we call civilization. It’s complicated, and each issue needs to be judged on its own merits and with independent use of a well-cultivated reasoning faculty instead of just farting around and finding talking heads who can ‘confirm’ our political biases for us tower of babble style.
The well-cultivated reasoning faculty is where objectivism emerges. Not that objectivists can’t be wrong about stuff, but objectivists being wrong about stuff also doesn’t mean that objectivism is null and void.
Payroll Data Just Confirmed The Worst-Case Scenario
Jeff Snider of the Eurodollar University says:
“There is no way to spin this, not that everyone won’t try. The June employment report did not just come in weak or just miss expectations. It wasn’t a little cooling after a decent stretch. No — the June jobs report strongly suggests the worst-case payback for the labor market is now unfolding.”
Also, the household survey of employment (unlike the employer survey) is showing a big recent drop in employment. If the household survey dropped but the employer survey did not, I would guess that there was a big drop in workers that are hard to count, like contract workers. Computer programmers on contract. Uber drivers, if they are contract workers. People working for very small shops.
Snyder feels that the real economy is weak, and this has been covered up by employers trying to front run higher costs from tariffs.
I would add that the war effort is a way to hide weak employment. Some of the employment comes indirectly, through the making of materials for both the Ukraine and Iran wars.
I noticed that George Gammon has a video out, saying that we are headed for something like the 2008 crash.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GkdhYhW2-c
Are We On The Brink Of Another Financial Crisis? (Answer Will Surprise You)
Just drove home from Boston on the Mass Pike. The rest areas have slots for food vendors. At one area four our of four slots were empty. At another three out of four empty. The tiles in the bath room at kick height were kicked in not repaired. One fuel dispensing island roof had been burned and not repaired.
Went to a once nice restaurant in Kendell Square, home to MIT and biotech companies, it was not what it used to be very disappointing. When the well paid executives of bio tech companies can not keep your restaurant afloat something is going on.
I think the economy is not as healthy as we are told.
It seems like there are a lot of locations in terrible repair. Shopping malls built in the 1980s have been going bankrupt for example. I know our local mall has severe financial difficulties.
https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/cobb-county/auction-cobb-countys-town-center-mall-averted-after-owner-pays-outstanding-property-taxes/446C7WATNFHOLBY5L34G5OS2Z4/
https://www.newsbreak.com/marietta-daily-journal-561232/4488633227625-what-s-left-at-town-center-mall
Don’t want jinx it but looking like it’s over?
Ships moving through south passage in convoys
Money changed hands?
Reports all the groups that form in pentagon when operations active back to 9 to 5.
China not topping off SPR. Better price ahead? Japan buys that oil.
China declining purchase changed Irans perspective?
Money changed hands?
No bragging no drama but ships transiting south channel?
Just like that? Peace breaks out? Ho hum? All irreconcilable manifestos from both parties down memory hole?
China told everyone to behave and it stuck? Both parties twiddle thumbs and stare at ceiling talk sports?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=S_svsJ1ijRg
Video is called “EU ACCEPTS HORMUZ FEES AS “INEVITABLE”, 40 SHIPS PASS DAILY-”
There are more ships now going both in and out. But the situation could change quickly. The trend is definitely upward. A lot is still up in the air. The US could perhaps be helping behind the scenes in opening the strait (paying money, clearing mines, helicopter assistance), but the speakers really don’t know.
About minute 27:
“What we’re seeing right now is literally that the world is accommodating a lower level of kind of supply than ever before.”
“The system is kind of wound tight like a rubber band. It can sustain it, but if something happens and it snaps, it’s going to be a lot worse than what normally would be.” [Mentions the problem if a hurricane disrupts oil production in the Gulf for a while.]
About minute 28:
Do you know how much they’re actually paying for the oil coming out?
There is a long discussion. It sounds like no one really knows what the prices being charged right now really are, (or perhaps these speakers don’t know).
The WSJ has an article up called,
What Happened in Fuel Markets When Trump Lifted the Century-Old Jones Act
California drivers, Gulf Coast refiners and Puerto Ricans have benefited from temporary suspension of the act
One of the most drastic measures taken by the Trump administration to tame fuel costs during the Iran war: suspending the Jones Act to allow foreign ships to haul fuel and other industrial commodities between U.S. ports. . .
[In the first 90 days] More than 31 million barrels of fuel and chemicals were shuttled between U.S. ports by foreign vessels. About 67% of the cargo volume was refined products, such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, and about 26% crude oil. Propane, fertilizer and bitumen were also shipped.
More than 70% of these shipments originated on the Gulf Coast, home to more than half of U.S. refining capacity and numerous petrochemical facilities and fuel-export docks.
The most popular destination has been California, which depends on Persian Gulf imports and has the highest gasoline prices in the country. Gasoline has been shipped to California from refineries in Texas and Louisiana and Washington. [Gail’s comment-this must have been shipped through the Panama canal.]
Intrastate trade routes emerged. Crude oil moved from Los Angeles, where pumpjacks bob around the city, to a refinery near San Francisco. That refinery sent fuels back to Los Angeles, where gasoline prices are roughly 40% above the national average. [Gail’s comment–shipping by boat likely took the place of a pipeline that is being shut down, because of lack of profitability–too little local crude oil.]
. . .
“We displaced international crudes with domestic grades into our refining system and sold the international barrels into tight overseas markets,” Brian Mandell, a Phillips 66 executive, told investors in April.
There is a political question now regarding whether this suspension should continue.
B at the Honest Sorcerer has an excellent post up about the new 2026 Statistical Review of World Energy, and what it indicates.
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/infinite-growth-delusions-continue?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1498475&post_id=204296321&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=222ei&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
He correctly observes that the text that the Energy Institute puts out is pie-in-the-sky nonsense about the future. Renewables will save us, etc.
B points out that the section showing reported oil reserves has been deleted from the report. B tells us what RystadEnergy is saying instead. The problem seems to be that reserves are now declining, so they are no longer being reported.
Much of B’s analyses is about the consumption of transportation fuels. These are gasoline and diesel (and perhaps a bit more, such as jet fuel). B shows that these uses peaked in the US, EU, and China years ago. The charts he shows are not “per capita.” The downturn would be earlier and more severe if per capita data had been shown.
This post is called
“Infinite Growth Delusions Continue – For Now”
When conflict of interests meets reality
He thinks the Energy Institute folks and the people providing the data have a severe conflict of interest in telling the truth.
I thought the cannibalizing of heating oil to produce more diesel in the 80s was an interesting point.
He said that huh? Cannibalization is a zero-sum game. I don’t imagine that there were any zero sum game dynamics at scale in the 80s. It could only be called a cannibalization if there was a diesel shortage at scale and people were left out in the cold at scale due to the cannibalization. Does he at least argue that that was the case?
Electricity from nuclear, the way it was done back then (cheap construction, plentiful uranium) was definitely beneficial. The East Coast of the US is very dependent on nuclear electricity. Also the Midwest.
The availability of additional electricity from nuclear was very helpful.
Perhaps refining would be a better word than cannibalizing. Refining also made more money for oil companies.
Not sure it is interesting. The economy is supposed to allocate resources efficiently. The use of heating oil for heating and electricity was always a loser. It’s like saying that gas flares in the Middle East were cannibalized to produce aluminum and urea.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said that he and his wife had stockpiled water, food, and other essentials in advance in case of a possible war or emergency.
https://ua.news/en/world/pistorius-ziznavsia-shcho-trimaie-vdoma-zapasi-na-vipadok-viini
(Spiegel interview supposedly)
–
German emergency advice says 10 days of food/water supplies..
(govs link inside) https://www.reddit.com/r/germany/comments/1p16dli/german_emergency_advice_says_10_days_of_foodwater/
–
Germans told to stockpile food and water for civil defence
22. 8. 2016 · Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere told a group of schoolchildren that Germany must be prepared to react if water or food reserves were …
http://www.bbc.com › news › world-europe-37155060
also from that year:
“For the first time since the Cold War, the German Government is asking citizens to start storing food and drink in case of a national emergency. “
We also saw something a while back from the government of France, recommending the stockpiling of emergency food and other essentials.
Ten days of supplies to get you through a potentially multi-year war?
Well, good luck with that!
I can’t imagine having to stockpile water. Imagine having to stockpile water. What an existence!
You may get through the first 10 days of that war.
As a practical matter, it is difficult to store up most commodities (except for perhaps rice and beans). The amounts available in stores aren’t that high. The storage space in homes is limited. The assumption is that any commodity interruption won’t last very long, and you will be able to restock, even if a war is going on.
you can buy water sterliastion tablets cheaply by the 000, they take up no real space, much easier than trying to store water.
Commenters at Resilience and elsewhere used to talk about adding a little chlorine bleach to water.
i think bleach is much the same thing as water purification tablets
In a war zone, I imagine it might be hard to store almost anything, including sterilisation tablets. They sound ghastly!
But if you have a decent fridge and reliable electricity, you can store a lot of semi-perishable foods permanently.
I am currently coming to the end of the batch of 100kg of soft wheat flour that was grown in 2007 and has been sitting in plastic bags at 12 degrees C ever since. I have a largish rice refrigerator, which is very common in the Japanese countryside, and I use it to keep lots of things cool and fresh, including pasta, oats, coffee, homemade marmalade, dry cat food, etc. Even works on fruit for a few weeks.
Of course, if the power goes off or the hordes overpower the defenses, I will be in a mess. But I find it miraculous that flour will store forever without any additives or even properly sealed packaging, just by keeping it cool and dry.
Ten days?
Simply. Too. Funny. For. Words.
traditionally—all wars are ”over by christmas”
they never have been of course, yet the mantra persists…
10 days of food and water is truly laughable…
This Asian (ethnic Chinese?) guy was just in China and said there’s a huge economic downturn. This is a tangent on his part, he doesn’t seem like a paid schill / disinfo agent. Found it interesting: he says all the foreign business folks are gone.
https://youtu.be/escPlO4P0LA?t=685
This Asian speaker seems to fit in with a whole lot of other videos we have seen in recent months about China (or perhaps even longer). The government has been greatly subsidizing the cost of electric vehicles, but even with that, there aren’t very many being sold within China. We know that the real estate bubble there continues to crash. I can believe that other countries are pulling investments out of China now with investments there not doing well. Even wind and solar have been struggling with low profitability. And US tariffs have been hurting China by reducing exports and keeping the prices of exports lower than they might otherwise be..
Immediate consequence of the Hand’s sanctioned-based 8 year backdoor energy bailouts of the broke ass albatrosses of industrial civilization coming to an end. There’s your controversially low oil prices right there. ‘Uncertainty’ about the adequacy of the 60day sanctions relief as the Hand’s elaborate Kabuki theater political cover for the plandemic 2.0 BNS psyop. The gentrified, overcomplex little bitch that capitalism is is rapidly and very publicly proving to not be up to the task.
Welcome to the DA.
May I ask what you studied at university, reante. I’m guessing it must be one or more of these – political science, or economics, or philsophy, or even history.
Or perhaps rhetoric and oratory with a special emphasis on highly informal, edgy, and colloquial descriptive phrases designed to evoke strong emotion?
“The gentrified, overcomplex little bitch that capitalism is” is a real gem!
Always nice to get a compliment from a pro writer. In retrospect I wish I had written complicated instead of overcomplex. Don’t you just hate it when that happens?
What did you study at university, Tim Groves? Was it in Britain or Japan? I have read that you live in Japan these days.
In answer to your question, dothk, I never studied at university. I dropped out of school at seventeen and joined the Post Office. That’s how I cam to ruin myself.
I must say, the headmaster was devastated. When he saw my A Level results, he thought, we’ve got a winner here!
Please tell me something about yourself, dothk. Where in the world are you from? Your English is excellent and at the same time rather formal. So I would guess you not a native speaker. Most native speakers display idiosyncrasies that would be rated as errors on the Henry Higgins scale.
I was a literature major because it was the only major that didn’t require a big ass senior project or having to work with others lol. The senior year paper in whichever emphasis one chose (I chose Postmodernism) only had to be 13-15 pages. Smart huh? 😁 I did not go to graduate school, it was all I could do to finish senior year. I only went to university because my parents expected at least that much out of my middle class upbringing. I just wanted to go to the local junior college with my high school friends and my girlfriend, so I chose the nearest university with a good basketball team (Santa Clara University) so I could be nearby them, and near home, too.
For my senior paper I analyzed a canonical Postmodern short story with my thesis being that it wasn’t postmodern at all, only superficially so. Surprise surprise from me huh? I argued that it was classic feminism instead which preceded Postmodernism. I was right of course. It was my best paper. My female teacher was pissed and hauled me into her office on charges on plagiarism because I wrote a long, complex sentence with the word transmogrification in it, and between that and my being just a presumably dumb jock on the basketball team (I had also had to miss some classes because of traveling for basketball which English teachers weren’t used to and didn’t like because athletes are rarely English majors), and my undoubtedly arrogant and antiestablishmentarian thesis of feminism, to her it all equaled plagiarism. I didn’t plagiarize of course so she had no way of substantiating it. I believe I ended up with a B- on that paper.
After college I mostly wandered around aimlessly for a few years couch surfing and hitchhiking and doing oddjobs. Not wanting any part of all the bs.
>> I was a literature major
This explains your tendency to write pages and pages
Imagine how awful it would be if I had a real keyboard.
Name that canonical Postmodern short story?
Angela Carter’s “The Bloody Chamber”
I did read some of Angela Carter’s output years ago but was not a fan. I do avoid “feminist” works.
It explains also the scientific foundation of the writings, Ivan.
[dropped / sorry if repost]
drb, yes but I was trying to be nice so I held my tongue!
ivan as the perfect example of why Nietzsche recommend that people live their lives as closed up fearful little bitches. Because the world is full of people like ivan.
How pathetic Nietzsche was to have his reactionary worldview and approach to life determined by low quality people who amount to little more than the white noise of the Machine.
drb weighing in by saying that the scientific ability is rooted in critical thinking and critical thinking is rooted in a literary approach to language. Language being the greatest lever wheel of all, born of the cooking fire that tripled our brain volume.
Tolstoy for example was a far better scientist than Darwin ever was because he levered the spirit out of reality and that enabled him to see living patterns that Darwin couldn’t. For the mechanical Darwin, biological life was behavior by genetic selection. Vertical. For Tolstoy behavior was a living process. Epigenetic. Horizontal. You decide whether you prefer to watch 90s England play football or you prefer to watch 90s Brazil. If 90s England didn’t blacklist the midfielder Matt Le Tissier and centered their whole team around him like a wheel there might be a debate.
ivan giving Ivan the benefit of the doubt in regarding drb’s comment as a slight against reante, as the world turns.
Reante> great personal story, not always easy going public.
If you excuse my curiosity that ~2000yr CAD designed re-build of the basketball court/hall at Santa Clara Uni taken place prior or after your stint ?
reante i aint readin all that … brevity if the soul of wit, haven’t you heard? so what do your rambling monologues provide evidence of?
After, I heard about it but never saw it. After graduation me and my best friend who stopped going to classes during the last quarter of senior year so never graduated –and who I started this farm with 15 years later — we lived in the large concrete joint between the old basketball venue and the swimming venue adjoining it. Throughout the summer and several months into the following school year. Couldn’t do that now even if the building was still there because of the yin and the yang gulag of capitalist gentrification. That’s why we love the 90s so much huh Jr? Peak cheap oil’s high water mark on the edifice, like that Hunter S Thompson quote:
“…we were riding the crest of a high and beautiful wave. So now, less than five years later, you can go up on a steep hill in Las Vegas and look West, and with the right kind of eyes you can almost see the high-water mark—that place where the wave finally broke and rolled back.”
You didn’t read it ivan because you can’t look yourself in the eye.
It is interesting about your being a literature major.
When I was invited to the colloquium at the Naval War College in 2009, they wanted to know how to plan realistic “war games” about the future that the navy would be facing.
They invited people from a lot of different fields. I was the only one from peak oil. There was a man who talked about the excessive fishing of the ocean, I remember. And one or two from a climate change perspective.
What surprised me was that there were at least a couple of writers of fiction. Perhaps the writers might have a good feel for what the “story line” might look like. No one wants the ending to come too quickly, for example.
That’s interesting, too, Gail. Were you fairly satisfied with what the group came up with?
“It is interesting about your being a literature major.
When I was invited to the colloquium at the Naval War College in 2009…”
I think that rank is defunct now. It’s userly just trumpet major these days.
Hand just wanted to compare notes for the hell of it lol. Hand absolutely gets lonely because it’s axiomatic that it’s lonely at the top. But in the emotional sense.
OFW commentariat goes a long way to keeping the Hand company these days. The post-parasitic Hand loves to slumlurk it up, in the peanut gallery.
But not in the emotional sense.
What is a BNS-Psyop?
Thanks!
Shakespeare has coined a few terms: Big Nuclear Scare, The Hand. I’m not sure who came up with The Elders, surely I’m missing a few terms here.
The Elders likely stems just from the church books, and given such upgraded context during the ~1960-1970s “anti-civ” nascent awakening movements, most likely..
The Big Nuclear Scare (the combined climaxes of the engineered Iran and Ukrainian wars) is the second set- piece of the 8 year old Non-Public Degrowth Agenda. The first was the plandemic. All covertly managed events, at the supranational level, and that operate under political cover, are psychological operations. The purpose of the BNS is to attempt to control the catastrophic collapse of Global Capitalism due to peak oil collapse. Superficially looks like accelerationism but actually functions as decelerationism. Smart, because public decelerationism — classical public degrowth political theory which would have had to be implemented 30 years ago or whatever under the theory — is a political paradox that cannot exist in a market reality because all medium- and long-term investment would cease, which would be like stomping on the brakes rather than decelerating. So the only realistic way to implement Degrowth is just waiting til the last minute before stomping on the brakes in order to minimize the worst of the damage ie, the nuclear fallout, hence the Big Nuclear Scare. And of course that’s not Degrowth. That’s slamming on the brakes. The Degrowth in Non-Public Degrowth Agenda is just a rhetorical euphemism. The DA is just the Elite Collapse management protocol that seeks to avoid the chaotic nuclear collapse of the civilization. And that’s no easy feat so it’s a complex, decadal operation.
It’s an attractive and plausible thesis: one cannot deny, for instance, that the ‘Terrible, terrible Pandemic’ was a contrived event, proving beyond any reasonable doubt the existence of a supra-national co-ordinating and directing agency( ie ‘The Hand’).
The ‘BNS’ hypothesis, and the Global Peace Accords, is also perfectly plausible: at present I would give it, in Cambridge terms, a solid 2:1.
If events bear it out, it shoots to Double First, Starred.
Those who deny that there is any directing agency – hello Norman! – are, very sadly, to be sent down for failing to pass Prelims. Repeatedly…….
with my limited ability to make sense of what you were rambling on about xabier
….I would suggest that you watch a murmuration of starlings, a thing of impossible beauty, with no apparent purpose, no guiding hand, just thousands of individuals moving as one….just as human beings do.
(we are not so easily visible, but that is what we do)
we like to think we have some kind of divine purpose, but we do not, other than finding a direction that will ensure the survival of the majority with the least effort.
long term this may or may not be a survival strategy—time will tell.
Don’t forget the soaring music of orchestras Norm. Another self-organizing miracle.
2:1 aaaand climbing. Fuck yeah. Double First Starred here we come. Tulsi! Tulsi! Tulsi!
Brilliant analogy, Norman!
The Rules of the Flock
In the 2010s, physicists used high-speed video and 3D computer modeling to crack the secret of the murmuration. They discovered that each starling only pays attention to its seven closest neighbors. Every bird constantly adjusts its flight based on three simple instincts:
Attraction: Fly toward the birds next to you to stay together.Alignment: Turn and fly in the exact same direction as your neighbors.
Separation: Avoid crashing into the birds right beside you.The Anatomy of a WaveBecause every bird is locked onto its seven neighbors, a single change in direction ripples through the crowd at lightning speed.
The Trigger: A bird on the edge might spot a predator, like a falcon, and dive to escape.
The Wave: The seven birds next to it immediately copy the move to avoid a collision. Their neighbors do the same.
Of course, down on Animal Farm, the commie chicks take their orders from Uncle Joe Starling.
A similar dynamic applies to many aspects of human behavior, especially to crowds and people using digital networks.
The analogy breaks down quite quickly, though, because starlings have no guiding hand. Humans, however, actively look for a guiding hand.
We elect politicians, follow CEOs, and listen to influencers. Even when humans appear to be moving like a swarm, there is often a hidden “leader” or an algorithm (like the TikTok or X feed) quietly directing where the crowd looks.
I imagine Norman’s guiding hand is the BBC. But it could just be the seven closest normies to him, and he copies their every word, act, and gesture, and they his?
Reante, don’t forget every orchestra playing a symphony at Carnegie Hall and even the humble brass band playing military marches in the part have one thing in common.
They all employ a conductor to keep all the players unified. Otherwise their beautiful synchronized performance would degenerate into a jam session or a cacophony.
Thanks Tim I was being facetious about the orchestra. The orchestra is superficially directed by the conductor (political class) and almost entirely ordered about by the composer (the Hand). It’s a perfect analogy to the civilization under the DA.
Thanks. Looks legit. I always wonder with the China is shutting down stories. It’s across the board now.
Supply chains break at first link
Good point. China is especially dependent on fossil fuels.
SOH conflict main objective is to induce inflation to support oil, economy, cut the debt but it’s not enough?
https://thebull.com.au/news/oil-forecast-is-a-multi-million-barrel-surplus-approaching-in-2027/
robust US crude exports providing flexible barrels to global markets, and unexpectedly low Chinese import volumes as the world’s largest crude buyer grapples with slower economic growth and accelerating electric vehicle adoption.
China had to bail out the world . It did so during the 2008 financial crisis also . It was/is TINA . China would have collapsed . Tainter has pointed out that nations collapse because their trade partners collapsed . We are ” Bozos on the same bus ” .
“Exports of goods and services account for approximately 20% of China’s total Gross Domestic Product (GDP). While this share indicates a more internally driven market than many smaller European countries, manufacturing and trade remain fundamental drivers, with industrial output representing nearly 37% of China’s GDP .”
It is 37% that counts .
The labor force in the US has shrank by 1.1 million since Jan. 2026. So many people have left the work force the unemployment rate actually went down from 4.3 to 4.2%. If you add back the people that aren’t counted since Jan. 2026 the real unemployment rate is 6.1% BTW.
The only reason the US has positive GDP numbers is because of AI CAPEX. Which clearly isn’t enough to create jobs to keep these 1.1 million people employed.
Nothing inflationary about an oil price shock. Not that any of the Central Banks matter but they will be cutting rates back to zero as this plays out.
Household credit in China has been in contraction. The reason interest rates are so low in China is because lack of demand for credit.
China, Japan, and Switzerland all have very low interest rates. Low interest rates aren’t stimulus. They are just reality in a low growth environment.
1.1 million people dropping out of the work force is demand destruction. Demand destruction with a negative feedback loop.
Right!
A negative positive feedback loop. Or a positive positive feedback loop to an accelerationist.
True, but even under over-all leading deflationary wave you get inflationary (“partial”)undercurrents in various segments of the economy ( and vice versa ).
Could be. The rising costs of i-phones, for example, because of rising chip costs.
I agree. I think the unemployment rate in the IT-computer programming sector is particularly understated because quite a few of these folks were contract “employees.” They are aren’t eligible for unemployment insurance. I expect that they are particularly undercounted.
If the I.T. sector is one of the few sectors of the economy doing well, why is it laying so many workers off? A lot is discussed about a.i. increasing efficiency but there are so few examples. Most of the examples listed like automated password resets and predictive maintenance have been around for 20 years.
One thing I thought about including in my latest post, but didn’t have space to include, was the strange timing of the Iran attack. It came right after the Supreme Court struck down the tariffs, and leaders figured out that big repayments would be needed.
Something needed to be done to try to offset the loss of this protective “moat” of tariffs that the US had tried to put around the US economy. The choice that was easily available was to help Israel with its desire to attack Iran.
This is a super speculative question. Besides a war between the powerful countries, could there be a war within each of these countries between the nationalists and transnationalists?
Boomers fell for this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O9h2EBdCu6I
If they went to college, their ability to think critically about the service economy was diminished. It’s not their fault, though. They grew up being told that services was the future. Outsourcing began as soon as the world rebuilt the damage from World War II. Outsourcing began as as early as the 1960s, in some cases.
Correctamundo, JAP scooters and such in the late 1950s – early 1960s followed by carz, similarly DE VW carz sipping less gas followed by some ~lux brands ala BMW, .. , then in 1970s HK electronics, toyz, and small appliances.., then TW early mini computers, ..
Also, the general sub-trend of US manuf. outsourced to Mexico.., textiles even more southbound LatAm ( apart from Asian inflows )..
Video is called “Gary Hoover Rise of the Service Economy”
Video shows percentage of service workers was surprisingly high, even 100 years ago.
I suppose a person could argue that if women stayed at home, doing child care they were, in some sense, unpaid service workers.
Hoover argues that the system changed [I would say, due to the use of fossil fuels] , so that not so that only a tiny fraction of the workforce now needs to work in agriculture. The rest of the economy could grow up around the smaller agricultural use.
There are a few concerns I have:
1. Our bodies are designed to eat minimally processed food–cooking, primarily. If eaten this way, there is much less tendency toward overweight and overeating.
2. Our bodies are designed for exercise. If we are trapped behind a desk doing a service job, we are unlikely to get this exercise.
3. All of the service industries that built up work on maximizing their own revenue. Their concern about the people they serve is minimal. In the US, restaurants serve oversized portions. The fiber in food is removed in processing and replaced with over-processed materials. The medical community has a strong incentive to over-diagnose and over-treat symptoms that will never amount to anything (and for which the treatments are as harmful as the original disease).
4. All of the changes have led to a need for huge amounts of debt. This debt cannot be repaid with interest unless the economy is growing.
5. It looks like we are on the edge of losing much of the fossil fuels. It is not clear that we can keep the economy growing. It is not clear that the debt bubble can stay inflated. The service economy looks terribly vulnerable if the economy needs to be reorganized.
Yes, energy for farming but also automation. For all economic activities energy plus automation (machines no AI). There is no need for growth if the available energy and automation is sufficient to feed, cloth, house the people. It is no horror if a human is born at a certain level of wealth and lives and dies at that same level. Just as long as it is a comfortable level.
Yes transitioning from a debt economy to a pay as you go economy will be difficult maybe even violent as the debt owners will fight to the end to remain rich on the backs of the humanity. Currently the debt owners control the governments so the possibility of transition to a Jesus economy is zero for the foreseeable future.
The debt owners are disproportionately included in the decision makers of the world.
But if the system starts to contract, there is a huge problem:
1. The debt starts to collapse, or
2. Some scheme can perhaps be cooked up, using Stablecoin or something similar, to add more debt to kick the problem down the road a bit farther.
A Substack post I saw said that based on astrology, some kind of turning point around July 19 might be reached. Whatever the turning point really is, it can’t be very far way.
The main issue with the services available in our service-based economy is that they are unaffordable to many people.
Borrowing money is a necessity for consumption of many services. Borrowing money is now expensive. The economists and c-suits don’t see the issue.
The interest paid on borrowed money helps to funnel money to the already wealth. People don’t realize this.
People who grew up in the Great Depression were counseled by their parents to stay away from debt. People today don’t realize how important that is. Maybe gambling in the stock market with “levered” investments can work for a while, but eventually it will fail.
“.Their concern about the people they serve is minimal. ”
This has been a long-running critique of many available services.
The quality of services seems to be of no interest to rulers or their advisers, either.
This is what happens when you run out of diesel .
” Excavators and cranes ground to a halt at some rescue sites in Venezuela as fuel shortages hampered recovery efforts after last week’s earthquake, leaving crews unable to clear debris in some of the hardest-hit areas of La Guaira state.
“There is no fuel, the machines are stopped since yesterday,” said Ariana Requena, who is trying to find her mother and brother in the rubble of Roca Park, a residential building that collapsed in La Guaira. Her grandparents’ bodies were recovered earlier this week. ”
https://archive.md/BITIX#selection-1545.0-1549.266
I am afraid this is not a surprise. There have been long electricity outages in the past also.
Oil not affordable at recent prices? Recession we have been missing?? Confusion on sanctions?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/iran-runs-big-problem-no-buyers-its-oil-full-tankers-pile-china
Iran Runs Into Big Problem: No Buyers For Its Oil, As Full Tankers Pile Up Off China
Iran was euphoric when as part of the Trump MOU, it got permission to flood the world with its oil after Trump effectively eliminate sanctions that had been in place for 40 years. However, it has quickly run into another, potentially far bigger problem: as the armada of Iranian oil tankers exits the Persian Gulf, it is now struggling to find buyers before the expiry of a 60-day window granted by Washington,
According to Vortexa data and Bloomberg calculations, there are more than 58 million barrels of Iranian crude and condensate was on-the-water as of July 1, yet more than 90% has no clear destination. The vessels are either indicating “for orders” or Singapore as their next port of call, a sign they may conduct ship-to-ship transfers in the Malacca Strait. . .
And here is the culprit : demand from Chinese independent refiners – Iran’s main customers prior to the conflict – has been muted as the sector’s run rates crash to a nine-year low. China’s state-owned refiners have also stayed on the sidelines, citing concerns over the ability of banks to finance any deals.
Translation: as we suspected a month ago, China’s economy is in far worse shape than telegraphed, and as a result it does not need Iranian oil (what oil it does need it just sources from its massive strategic reserves). . .
Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Puri met his Iranian counterpart in New Delhi last week, but stopped short of committing to imports. The country’s state-run processors are avoiding the Iranian oil for now, because they’ve already secured Russian crude supplies through at least the end of August. They are also still seeking clarity from Washington over US-denominated payments, they added. . .
Still, Asian interest in Iranian oil could quickly emerge if the price is right.
I’ve already read several news reports about the lack of interest in Iranian oil on this blog and other media outlets, and there are… loose ends in the news.
If China has reduced its imports by more than 5 million barrels per day (mbd) for over 100 days, and previously needed at least 4 mbd of those 5, why would they prefer to keep drawing on reserves rather than buying crude? Because they must have a hole of more than 400 million barrels in their reserves. The refineries may be full, but the reserves are not.
Another possibility is that it would be cheaper for China to use Iranian tankers as floating storage facilities instead of pumping oil into the country, while waiting to make room for the new shipments. We saw something similar throughout March, with a phantom fleet loaded and beached, which was then activated to unload in China.
Copy/paste from Quark comments
Typical
@zerohedge
oil amateur hour
They confuse “no declared destination” with “no buyer.”
That’s how Iran has shipped and sold crude for years
One month of weak China imports doesn’t prove a structural demand collapse
Art Berman
House of Mirrors
The agenda to print money to pump tech stocks and short oil as an economic stimulus continues. It’s a big club and you ain’t in it.
Mike Shellman
Ouch!
I would guess that for example Japan would be delighted to accept that oil. Where am I wrong?
drb , It is the uncertainty . It is not only Japan but everyone else including India .
https://www.marketscreener.com/news/iran-exploring-oil-sales-to-japan-buyers-seek-longer-sanctions-waiver-sources-ce7f5edad981f625
https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/061826-once-a-favorite-among-refiners-india-rethinks-oil-sourcing-strategy-from-iran
The Orangutan cannot be trusted .
Yes, there is fear they will be punished. The Orang is a mean drunk.
it seems to me that if your SPR is empty there is no uncertainty. you buy.
More datacenter problems. This is a different data center than two days ago:
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/worlds-largest-data-center-campus-verge-collapse-after-blackstone-unexpectedly-pulls-out
World’s Largest Data Center Project On Verge Of Collapse After Blackstone Unexpectedly Pulls Out
The digital ink is barely dry on its Virginia data center sales, and we learn that Blackstone’s QTS (QTS Realty Trust) is again quietly fading its AI exposure by walking away from plans to build its portion (which at this point is the only portion left after its partner already pulled out days ago) of a 2,100-acre data center campus in Virginia – also known as Prince William Digital Gateway which would house as many as 37 data-center buildings – handing a win to residents who fought for years to topple the project.
The data center developer had planned to transform more than 800 acres in Northern Virginia’s Prince William County, a project that would have spanned 22 million square feet, making it the largest data center campus in the world. Located on the edge of an historic Civil War battlefield and on what used to be land protected from development, the project ignited strong pushback from homeowners and has been stalled by lawsuits.
. . . Already, Brookfield-backed Compass Datacenters, which was supposed to build on more than 800 acres at the site, had pulled out in May.
The U-turns by both firms, Bloomberg writes, amount to one of the most dramatic retreats by developers from a data center project.
EIA has posted a figure for world crude oil production for last March (76.395 Mb/d) — this is 11.9% below their next-highest monthly figure (86.715 Mb/d, for last February).
Is world “peak oil” past? http://oil-price.net/ https://davecoop.net/seneca
https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world/petroleum-and-other-liquids/monthly-petroleum-and-other-liquids-production?pd=5&p=0000000000000000000000000000000000vg&u=0&f=M&v=mapbubble&a=-&i=none&vo=value&t=C&g=00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001&l=249-ruvvvvvfvtvnvv1vrvvvvfvvvvvvfvvvou20evvvvvvvvvvnvvvs0008&s=94694400000&e=1772323200000
Correction: last February was their HIGHEST monthly figure.
Clearly, data for March is after the Iran war started. The difference between February at 86.715 million bpd and 76.395 million bpd = 10.320 million bpd would give one estimate of the oil production lost, but it would probably be better to look at the details a bit more.
Data by country will tell how much Middle East oil seems to be missing. If Russian oil is also missing, we can also figure this out.
As part of this report:
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/ai-memory-trade-unraveling
Zerohedge is reporting:
China’s memory moment
Apple is reportedly considering Chinese memory suppliers for products sold domestically. The immediate benefit is obvious: lower costs and greater supply flexibility. The bigger story is what it signals. If Apple embraces Chinese memory suppliers, it does more than lower costs; it validates domestic competitors and could gradually reshape competitive dynamics in the world’s largest electronics market.
But this will not go over well with the market, if true.
A key phrase: “An underlying issue is that the price of oil extraction has tended to rise faster than inflation.” If you replace the world “inflation” with “what the market will bear”, you have the definition of economic peak oil. One of the predicted indicators of economic peak oil is wide fluctuations, also for the reasons you cite: a low oil price is a disincentive for more extraction, a high oil price is a disincentive for more consumption. We’re seeing both.
Good point:
“If you replace the world “inflation” with “what the market will bear”, you have the definition of economic peak oil.”
You are right on the second part of what you write, also.
Well, it is well to remember the early days of TheOilDrum blog where Gail was ‘just another’ poster… and I, all bright and bushy-tailed, was reading her posts then —she caught my attention with her suggestion that oil prices may fail to rise as a response to increasing demand. I figured I’d stick around and find out.
” if water doesn’t flow blood will”
India and Pakistan two nuclear armed nations have coexistence issues.
Not enough chairs.
Solved in the usual way?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6L6dClwjuQs&pp=ugUEEgJlbg%3D%3D
During the growth phase of agricultural civilization might makes right. MPP. During the collapse phase difficult compromise makes MPP, especially between nuclear powers.
It is hard to imagine two countries, as close geographically as India and Pakistan, to use nuclear weapons. There is too much that can go wrong.
A nuclear armed adversary on your border is always problematic. Probably either India or Pakistan could execute a successful nuclear decapitation strike. Their warheads are small and total warheads about 340. It would be kind of a tactical nuke ++ shootout and very one sided for whoever got on the trigger first. Not as bad as you might think. Probably not a civilization ending event. This scenario is weighted for entertainment so their is actually a exchange. There simply wouldn’t be much of a exchange with distances involved. Small distances between nuclear adversaries encourage possibility of a event because the probability of success of a capitulation strike and the do on to others before they doo doo on you principle. Realistically maybe 20 million dead on one side 5 million dead on the other. Islamabad Delhi and Mumbai gone. Fallout much much smaller than if the real players were tossing high yield devices about.
https://youtu.be/xpAOM-qUGdU?si=XEuS6uEFvvMVWsEs
Do India and Pakistan have fusion bombs or just “small” fission bombs?
Nothing will happen between India and Pakistan . China just warned India ” if you cut off downstream water just to remind you that you are downstream to China ” . India cannot take on China –India is working on a back channel to open the water . No , they don’t have fusion bombs .
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Vf-8UVBKDBQ
Not same degree of supply domination. Majority of Indus water enters after China. Still I agree with you. India doesn’t have the ability to cut off the water. Lake Punjab is not going to fly.
Your comment reveals a major crack in the BRICs alliance. Putin tried to gloss over the China India rivalry. He has other things to do now.
India not pleased with China Pakistan alliance. Now it is demonstrated in a non economic realm. These threats may not have substance but they do reveal real animosity. India tossing the Indus water Treaty reveals a lot of things. Tossing treatys always is destabilizing. Laying exclusive claim to previously shared critical resources is always destabilizing.China stepping up for Pakistan can go either way longer term. India may feel obligated to show China they are not dominated. Surrounding can bring out fight responses or flee responses. If China becomes the economic player in the gulf countries via Pakistan India is indeed nicely surrounded their two rivals teamed and in on the ground floor. Brics would be nothing more than a facade. Because it always was a facade. BRICs was always China.
China stepping in for Pakistan may stabilize short term. Longer term it may be destabilizing.
Low self esteem is not always crippling. Sometimes it creates interesting responses.
Great new (thesis-data updating) article by Tim Morgan:
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2026/07/01/327-surplus-energy-economics/
In my first derived simplistic reaction ( not claiming author’s per se ) it seems as the ” prosperity knee ” threshold as in personally felt very rapid profound change to worsening trends could occur around [ 2035-40..] boundary. And that dependent on condition there are no profound colliding, intervening events along the route way before to such idealized curve of time ( Hormuz – anybody hah ). Specifically, as some region/s of the world could go down way sooner, hence dragging the rest into the expedient ( overall ) downdraft as well..
Obviously, these are world aggregates; so for example the current statistics and self identified dis-grunt (on the ground reality) of large part of US workforce already found themselves on the ever sloping curve to the right (Fig. 4,5) .. experiencing ~collapse of prosperity already.. And the discretionary affordability cliff ahead around ~2030-35-40 is absolutely massive free-fall then..
My note/speculation: hence, we can’t discount the possibility the US acted pre-emptively with that Hormuz gamble for that very reason.. It would also explain the EU near-suicide policy gamble tendencies as of lately ..
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In the last chapter 4.11 and graph (Fig.8c), also interesting fact: the leverage of GDP vs broad (all) fin assets is roughly 1:8 ! But my addition, it could be slightly worse because both GDP and fin world shenanigans. In any case 1:5 – 1:10 overexposure seems as realistic boundary there ..
If Reante’s ~natsoc~ scenario answers to that crash, the new structure would have to be almost all synthetic debt instrument free, which seems impossible from our today’s vantage point, but similar grand civ-shocks ( and corresponding answers ) happened already throughout larger history span ( K-years) few times already..
Yes I expect Phase 2 of the DA to qualify as fast collapse by anyone’s standards. Nature of the beast. Even the Hand can’t do anything about fast collapse. The harder the civilization comes the harder it falls. All it hopes to do is stave off chaotic collapse for as long as possible.
Also interesting this “~apogee forcing” meant in figurative sense of that curve at graph (Fig.5d), placed there ( somehow / someone ) during-onwards 2019 – C19 exercise, very doubtful such timing-fit on that exact spot-segment of curve being just randomly-happen stance..
In short, revealed testing and (scheming)bracing up for civ-altering impact.
Quotes from the post. I put a couple of important points in bold. The post also talks more about the current faults of the thinking of today’s economists. Clearly, Tim Morgan thinks that market values will keep rising, until the financial system collapses completely.
Today, through the application of a series of fundamental precepts, we can know, and at very high levels of confidence, that the economy has stopped expanding, and is heading into contraction.
. . .
What we also know is that this process of economic inflexion will be accompanied by crises, which might be financial, social, geopolitical or, in all probability, a combination of all three. . .We need to be clear that the ending and reversal of growth can only end in crisis.
. . .
Governments don’t have “answers” to this problem, because no such answers exist within current political parameters. . .International relations, meanwhile, have been degenerating into intensifying competition for scarce and dwindling resources.
. . .
a successor to fossil fuels won’t be found in any sudden moment of ‘technology saves the day’. . . The lessons of this history are that energy evolution happens very gradually, and that each progression has required the foundational technologies of its predecessor.
. . .
global average prosperity per capita grew by about 2.7% annually in the 1950s, rising to 3.0% in the 1960s. . . And these, of course, were the years when then-cheap oil – and, latterly, natural gas as well – were taking over energy leadership from coal.
. . .
the key point to be taken from this sequence is the essential energy causation of economic trends.
. . .
The problem with renewables is that, far from providing a qualitative advance on fossil fuel energy, they cannot be detached from it, and do not boast meaningful superiorities over it.
. . .
ore grades have declined more quickly than mining methods have improved, and that agricultural land has degraded more rapidly than farming techniques have progressed.
. . .
With due deference to Benjamin Franklin, more can now “be said to be certain” than mortality and taxation. The first thing we know, and are learning in real time, is that ‘infinite, exponential growth on a finite planet’ is indeed the preserve of madmen and economists.
The other is that this inevitability will be denied, up to, and even beyond, its point of demonstration.
. . .
economic growth alone enables some to prosper without a corresponding detriment to others.
. . .
Since the prices of assets tend move inversely to the cost of capital, the result has been the inflation of an “everything bubble” across most asset classes. This manipulation of the relationship between assets and incomes has been a major driver of widening inequalities.
It’s very important that we remember, at this point, that assets only ever command paper values, and can never be monetised in the aggregate. The only possible buyers for the entirety of the stock market, or for the whole of a nation’s housing stock, are the same people to whom these already belong.
Accordingly, it might be contended that those who advocate a political rebalancing of inequalities of wealth and income might, in reality, need to do no more than wait for the collapse, not just of most paper wealth, but also, very possibly, of fiat money itself.
Even the wealthiest are only ever one market crash, or one currency collapse, away from losing almost everything.
. . .
The excessive faith vested in monetary innovation and the wonders of technology has at least served the purpose of telling us where to look for failure.
. . .
Our understanding of finance, when benchmarked to the material, should inform us that the moment of monetary failure will coincide with the attainment of absolute peak valuation
Or, as Ibn Khaldun put it in the 14th century:
‘The candle flame burns brightest just before it goes out’.
Most red pilled movie quote.
Most Red Pilled song ever made.
Yup Lennon was killed for playing pied piper and trying to lead the kids off the reservation just like Marley and Tupac were.
That was awesome man thanks. Fun trippy comments section too. The guy’s wife even dropping in. Miles Mathis fanclub also dropping in saying that Miles proved it’s actually Lennon lol. Good times.
heard an interview on Martha’s Vineyard Radio with “Peter McNamee” (the director) years ago and he sounded just like Lennon. That’s no longer available, but this “Peter McNamee” interview below sounds much more like the “Peter McNamee” I recall from a director’s-cut CD, where all the folks involved were chatting it up at a celebration.
https://archive.wfpl.org/052810PeterMcNamee.mp3
The rabbit-hole continues in the comment section of this (supposed) Mark Staycer performance at Little Bohemia in Traverse City in 2012. One could make this stuff up, but they don’t have to 🙂
No clue what the joke might be here, if any. The Beatles were to open for Roy Orbison on a UK Tour (3-weeks in 1963), but the bill “famously flipped” (per Claude, PC) due to The Beatles popularity, and they closed the shows. Guess Orbison was gracious about it, PC.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yg4kcIh-OMg
Curious that both Peter McNamee and Mark Staycer died in 2023. Maybe they’re making movies with Dave McGowan at the Lookout Mountain Studio in Laurel Canyon?
Fun. Yeah that voice on the audio sounds like he’s from the south of England consistent with it saying he’s from London. Not at all Lennon’s nasal lilt. Voice otherwise could possibly be considered to sound similar. After watching the movie I watched a bit of an interview with Staycer on the channel and he didn’t look enough like Lennon to my eye. Jawline and chin weren’t right. Didn’t read the Mathis essay. I’m strongly inclined to take the whole movie project at face value.
Thank you!
I didn’t know the full version of Let Him Be was available online.
I’ll say one thing.This guy looks like a John Lennon and sounds like a John Lennon a lot more than the biopic actors who played Freddie Mercury and Michael Jackson resembled the originals they played. And this movie was pre-AI.
Although Michael’s nephew made a passable Michael and there is a definite basic resemblance.
Hey Tim, pleasure’s mine. I ran the director’s cut on CD by an old friend in Traverse City. He knew Mark Staycer and thought all the CT surrounding Lennon was a hoot. I had him on the lookout for Lennon slipping-in at a club, to perform in Mark’s place. Ha 🙂
The song is very repetitive. It has no “hook”.
vaxxers have 1-3 years left. tops
The way things are going mobbie, that looks like you can include us all in that group…good luck feeding the human hoard with the chaos in the mix ..
Hungry anger and destitute folks tend to act out…right, Kulmmie?
That’s a very provocative and also an alarmist statement that will only make people anxious. If the MSM started broadcasting it as an official prediction, hearing or reading it would probably finish off thousands of people early. The MSM are the West’s modern equivalent of witch doctors and voodoo practitioners. Their scare stories are on a par with giving people the evil eye.
Having said that, US mortality, especially amount younger age groups, is much higher than any other Western country.
The food we eat in US is particularly bad. Young people have grown up on MacDonald’s hamburgers and french fries, with ketchup for their vegetable. Cookies are monstrously sized.
At least some older folks remember the foods they grew up with. They cook from scratch at home. Some even have gardens.
Well, to be fair, there are also other ff chains avail., providing (tiny) bit of ~veg salad into the sandwiches and so on.. ; besides there should be cafeterias/school(uni) kitchens at least at some places still in function for the youngsters.
But the thrust of the argument is likely correct, I recall many decades ago, my land-lady in the US, was shocked-appalled me cooking ( out of habit ) and tight budget almost daily ( obviously meant easy-quick meals ).
Now from Italian friends I know that even this particular notable sub-culture of theirs with deep traditional roots keeping for 100+ yrs somewhat degraded/degenerated inside US recently. So, many still cook at home, but it’s way simplified and sporadic vs say ~1970-80s situation ( then more multigen households )..
Obviously, this phenomenon took place to some extent at all continents, and across many other cultures as times went by..
Deutche Bank has an interesting article (optimistic) about AI. In Figure 4 of the article it points out that on one market where AI tokens are bought and sold (OpenRouter), Chinese tokens now outsell those of the US.
https://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/IE-PROD/PDFVIEWER.calias?pdfViewerPdfUrl=PROD0000000000632122&rwnode=REPORT
Always a great read! Thanks! On the petrodollar issue. It was clever because it allowed U.S. banks (and U.S. industrial interests) to make a profit of just about every barrel of oil. Iran threatened that monopoly soon after it began, in 1979. The U.S. has never let it rest–trying to get Iran back in line. Now, with that idiotic attack, we’ve cut off our nose to spite our face. Sorry to jump around, but the cart is now leading the horse. Trump and his cronies believe dollars run the world and they’re extorting money wherever they can. I believe we both agree that oil creates dollars not the other way around?
Trump’s regime still views US military power as it was post WWII. that 3/4 of our re-fuelers and B-52s were flying during the Vietnam war doesn’t give them pause. That the word pathetic doesn’t begin to describe our shipbuilding capacity. That China’s engineering and manufacturing base is now way ahead.
A reason why the U.S. economy might not be able to self-adjust oil prices is that much of the world, backed by China, is working to divorce oil from the petrodollar which will impact the “reserve” currency status and and ratchet up inflationary pressure.
Put another way, the U.S. has always had this delusion that the Fed can control inflation. Those days, I believe, are over. The U.S. will have to adjust to global energy markets which are increasingly anti-dollar. I think you’ve pointed this out, that we’re walking into a hyperinflation trap. Again, loved your piece.
Glad you loved my piece!
I agree that oil creates dollars rather than dollars creating oil.
The US has tried to manipulate inflation rates for years. I was astounded when I saw the fall in interest rates between 1981 and 2021. But rising interest rates has the potential to bring about calamity, as does falling levels of debt.
I also saw oil production from Iran drop off the cliff when sanctions were imposed in 1979. This is a chart I made today showing Iran’s oil production from 1965 to 2025. I would be very unhappy about the situation, if I were Iran.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Iran-Oil-Production-through-2025.png
I can only assume that the source of calamity would come from non-productive members of society. In a period of calamity, non productive members of society would realize that without “passive income” from the financial sector, they would have to do something productive to survive.
But that’s me and my limited perspective. You may have some other, more accurate source in mind.