There have recently been many warnings about near-term oil shortages stemming from the conflict in Iran. Most analysts assume that shortages mean higher prices. As I will explain, the dynamics of a self-organizing economy suggest the opposite outcome — lower prices, deepening recession, and shortages of goods and services that have little to do with price.
Rather than high prices, my major concerns are recession and the disappearing availability of goods and services that we rely on. This might be similar to the empty shelves that many stores experienced in 2020 and 2021. There may also be new government restrictions, intended to work around the reduced oil supply in a way that will allow essential services to continue to operate normally. Oil prices are likely to fall below $40 per barrel, as they did in 2020 with Covid restrictions.
In this post, I will try to explain why this counterintuitive outcome — shortages leading to lower prices rather than higher — is what the self-organizing economy tends to produce. Along the way, I will look at the current state of oil reserves, why the conflict with Iran is unlikely to be quickly resolved, and what the price behavior of oil since February 28 tells us. I will also step back to consider the broader picture: why war can seem like a solution to struggling economies, and what the 2020 Covid experience might teach us about what lies ahead.
[1] Reserves of already-pumped US oil have dropped to concerningly low levels.
On June 17, President Trump said, “We will run out of reserves in about four weeks without a deal.” According to the article, we are not certain whether Trump intended to apply this statement to US or world emergency reserves.
Also, according to this recent video, the US’s largest tank farm seems to be very close to the minimum level at which crude oil can be withdrawn from its tanks. And, on June 23, MSN said, “America may see actual gasoline shortages by July 4.”
The already-pumped oil in storage is intended to be used as a buffer if there are variations in supply or demand. The reason that these buffers are falling low is because considerable oil from them has already been used to mitigate the shortfall in crude oil supply to date.
The shortfall in the supply of crude oil supply cannot be expected to disappear quickly. There has been considerable damage to infrastructure in Iran and elsewhere. It will take years rather than months for this to be repaired. In countries where oil production has been shut in, some wells are likely to produce less after being reopened following many months of closure. Furthermore, Iran has no incentive to completely reopen the shipping lanes, since keeping them potentially closed has the potential to raise oil prices per barrel. Higher oil prices would help the finances of Iran.
[2] Perhaps because of concern about low buffer supplies, the US has negotiated a deal with Iran that seems unfavorable to the US.
Information keeps coming out that indicates that Trump’s current Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is very favorable to Iran. It looks as if the MOU has been written as if Iran won the war. We are also seeing that other countries have begun acting as if Iran has indeed won the war. For example, on June 23, a joint statement was issued by Iran and Oman. The two countries seem to be co-operating in setting up the collection of funds from ships passing through the strait to cover insurance and other costs.
If we are dealing with a “done-deal,” and the US is coming out poorly, the level of conflict within the US is likely to rise. Many people will be angry with Trump for getting the US into the war to begin with. Unfortunately, there is likely close to nothing we can do about this situation.
[3] Trump or another leader cannot restart the war against Iran and expect to do any better.
A major problem is that the US has substantially depleted its ammunition supplies, and it will take years to replenish them. While the US could perhaps launch a short attack, it would not be able to carry out a sustained campaign for very long.
Another issue is that the armaments that the US has stocked to date are designed to be used in a different type of war than the one that is being fought today. The US needs drones and close-by locations from which to launch them. Iran damaged most of the US’s bases that are close to Iran in the conflict that began on February 28. Without substantial rebuilding, the US has no functioning bases close to Iran from which to launch such drones.
Restocking armaments will likely take several years, especially if new types are needed. Adding to the difficulties of the US is the fact that China has been the primary source of many critical minerals used in the production of high-tech goods and ammunition. In recent years, China has restricted access to these critical elements. The US is now developing mines for some of these minerals, but setting up entire supply chains will take years.
[4] One motivation for attacking Iran might have been to raise oil prices to a higher level.
Based on their models, economists typically reach the conclusion that inadequate oil supplies will lead to high oil prices. It is likely that President Trump and his advisors believed that inadequate oil supply would lead to high oil prices.
Some analysts, including me, would argue that the models of economists are very inadequate; they give misleading indications by leaving out the complex self-organizing nature of the economy.
Higher oil prices are sometimes desirable because they encourage more oil extraction. For example, higher prices allow marginal wells to continue to be profitable longer. They can also make a new, higher-cost source, such as tight oil from shale, attractive for drilling. Looking ahead, higher oil prices would make it easier to get oil company support for ramping up oil production in Venezuela.
Figures 2 and 3 show the connection that higher oil prices seem to have had in encouraging tight oil extraction from shale. Figure 2 shows historical oil prices, adjusted for inflation. Noted on this figure is my view of whether prices were high enough to encourage extraction from more difficult locations.
Figure 2 indicates that prices started to run up in the 2003 to 2008 era, when China started ramping up its manufacturing, and thus its demand for oil. In this same timeframe, there was also a growing demand for housing in the US, thanks to very liberal underwriting standards for home mortgage loans. Thus, the total demand growth for oil was very high.
Figure 3 shows that production of tight oil started ramping up in 2009, after oil prices had been rising for several years.
Another factor in the growth of tight oil production was the availability of cheap credit after 2008, but this has tended to disappear since 2021. Now, tight oil production seems to be leveling out, leading to rising concerns that tight oil production may soon decline, especially if credit is no longer cheap. Having higher oil prices might help postpone the decline of tight oil.
[5] Oil prices since the war started on February 28 have not bounced very high. Recently, they have tended to fall back, close to their pre-war level.
The first thing to note is the fact that the prices on Figure 4 do not reflect the actual prices to the consumer, which have often been greater. The cost of transporting oil has jumped in many markets, but this higher transport cost is not reflected in the “West Texas Intermediate” price of oil, displayed in this chart. These higher prices at the pump have led some of the more price-sensitive buyers of oil products to cut back on their purchases.
Second, there is a lag issue regarding how soon the impact of missing supply actually hits the market. The slow transit time of oil from the Middle East to markets means that the actual disruption of supplies did not hit until at least 50 days later. If crude oil first needs to be processed by local refineries and then the oil products shipped to customers, the lag would be even greater–perhaps 75 or 100 days in total. Thus, much of the price increase to date may be based on a fear of shortages, rather than on an actual shortage issue.
Third, there have been some changes that impact oil “demand.” Some consumers have been told by their governments to work from home or otherwise restrict their driving to save on oil consumption. Also, some flight schedules have been cut back. Recently, Ukraine has been targeting some of the oil infrastructure of Russia, leading to reduced gasoline and diesel availability within that country. All these issues have tended to reduce the demand for oil. The lower demand acts to hold down oil prices.
A fourth issue has to do with worldwide economic conditions before February 28. Even before the war, much of the world was in close to a recessionary situation. There were very many low wage earners who could not afford much beyond the basic necessities of life. Even a small run-up in oil prices tends to affect food prices because oil is often used in farming operations and food is usually transported to market using oil. With higher food prices, poor consumers were forced to cut back on other purchases. This recessionary dynamic can be expected to get worse if oil prices inch up even a bit.
[6] I expect that oil prices will continue to remain relatively low, or they will only briefly rise to high ($150+) levels, even if there are actual oil supply disruptions.
I expect that the dynamics we have been seeing since February 28 will continue, and may intensify. Governments will add new restrictions that will reduce oil use. Airlines will go bankrupt, or they will reduce flight schedules. Recession will become even more of a problem. These issues will tend to reduce usage without raising prices.
[7] What we may see more of is broken supply chains.
There will be more signs in grocery stores and in home product stores saying, “This product is temporarily unavailable.” Car repair shops may tell us that a required replacement part will not be available for several months. Physicians may tell us that a medicine or chemotherapy drug that they normally use is, at this time, unavailable.
[8] The operation of the economy depends on an adequate supply of many kinds of energy. If oil supply is reduced, an economy needs to shrink to a smaller size to match. This is what leads to recession.
One reason for the above observation is that we know that our own vehicles will not operate without whatever fuel they are designed for. This is clearly also true for all the delivery trucks in the world, and for farm machinery and for ships that transport goods across the ocean. With less fuel, fewer trips of many kinds will be made. Workers will be laid off. This dynamic sounds a lot like recession.
The expected lower world oil supply in the near future is not an issue that can easily be resolved. We are already seeing that even with a supposed settlement, disruption in oil supplies seems likely to continue and even to worsen, as the various limits on buffer supplies are reached. Unfortunately, we cannot expect the situation to be completely fixed for several years.
Furthermore, the economy is facing even more disruptions than I have outlined above. For instance, Ukraine has been disrupting Russia’s oil infrastructure with drone attacks. There have also been disruptions to sulfur exports from the Middle East. Sulfur is used in many ways, including as a fertilizer and in the production of sulfuric acid, which is used in the mining of uranium, among other things. In addition, there have been disruptions to liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from Qatar. The lack of these important products will tend to further damage supply chains and lead the economy deeper into recession.
[9] We are ultimately dealing with multiple not-enough-to-go-around scenarios. This situation will tend to increase conflict in the world.
The dynamic we are dealing with is similar to that in the game of Musical Chairs.
The game of musical chairs is played in rounds. Players walk around the edge of a circle of chairs while music is played. When the music starts, the number of players is equal to the number of chairs. In each round, one chair is removed. The music plays and then suddenly stops. The players must then scramble to grab a chair. Since the number of chairs is now one fewer than the number of players, small fights can ensue.
The problem is basically, “Not enough to go around.” War often sounds like a reasonable solution to leaders.
[10] War can seem like a solution.
Strangely enough, war has multiple advantages to economies that are suffering from difficulties related to low commodity prices and, indirectly, low wages in related industries. One commodity is food. If food prices are too low, farmers will be unhappy that their earnings are low. They may stop farming and try to make a living from putting their land into a land bank and working elsewhere.
If oil prices are low, the oil industry can experience pockets of low wages. There have recently been reports of lockouts and strikes in the oil industry. I would expect these labor actions to be most prevalent where oil fields are depleted.
If a government announces a war, it looks like the government is “doing something” about the country’s problems. There is suddenly employment, either as a soldier, or in building armaments. GDP tends to rise because the war leads to a larger share of the population working. The war can be used to justify the additional government debt needed to hire the additional workers. What convinced me of this relationship was this chart, showing a huge increase in US GDP during World War II:
Looking closely at the chart, it is also possible to see GDP increases during the Korean War (1950-1953) and between the time the US entered the Vietnam War, deploying up to 549,000 soldiers, and the time the US greatly reduced its forces there (1964-1969).
I think much of Europe is now in a situation in which war looks like a solution. Russia may also be in such a situation. Ukraine, with its problems, is also in such a situation.
[11] There may be lessons to be learned from the 2020 Covid restrictions and the ultra-low oil prices that resulted then.
Back in 2019, many people in the financial world were concerned about the economy. In 2019, the US faced significant financial issues, including a budget deficit that increased by $205.4 billion to $984.4 billion. In addition, in September 2019, there was a spike in the interest rates financial institutions charge each other (repo rates) that concerned those who followed financial markets closely.
What took place in 2020 seemed to some of us to be close to miraculous. The strange actions related to Covid greatly brought down the price of oil. Covid also provided an excuse to give money to households. US government debt was able to increase greatly, and, somehow, the world economic system has held together until now. Financial problems were “kicked down the road” a while longer. Without the pressure of financial problems, the economy could work on ways to mitigate the energy problem a while longer.
Economies are self-organizing systems, just as the human body is a self-organizing system. Both are powered by “energy dissipation.” Human bodies tend to heal wounds, like magic. Economists talk about an “invisible hand” being helpful to economies. In situations where the healing of economies does occur, low oil prices can be part of the magic.
[12] What might be ahead?
We are again in a period when the US and world economies are on shaky ground. Debt levels are high, and conflict levels are high.
As I have discussed in this post, I expect the general trend in oil prices will be down, rather than up. The major reason why oil prices are likely to be low is because, with the damage done in the Middle East, the quantity of oil supply available to the world is starting to shrink. As a result of the low oil quantity, the world will produce fewer goods and services. This is close to the definition of recession! (Also, on Figure 1, this is why we expect Wile E. Coyote to fall down, rather than to float up, when his support disappears.)
I expect as oil product shortages hit, local leaders will figure out ways to mitigate the oil bottleneck that the world now seems to be facing. Local leaders will enact rules that make certain that whatever oil is available is used to maintain essential services. It will not be surprising if local leaders keep people at home, using one excuse or another, to keep oil demand in line with the quantity of oil that is available. This is a big part of why oil prices will tend to be low, in a manner similar to 2020.
With low oil prices, I expect that inflation will be low. Pressure to keep raising interest rates will disappear. The economy will not be doing well, but the issue will not be high interest rates preventing new investment.
In my opinion, the world economy needs to reorganize with shorter supply lines to get through the oil “tight spot” that the economy is in. If supply lines could mostly be kept within the areas marked on Figure 7, it seems like a significant amount of transport fuel could be saved.
The conflict with Iran doesn’t seem to be ending well for the US, but there might be a silver lining. The pain the US is experiencing in Iran will hopefully teach the US to stay out of issues in the Eastern Hemisphere. If a conflict with Iran is to ramp up again in the near future, I expect that it will be a European group that will be getting involved, not the US.
We don’t know quite what is ahead, but the experience in 2020 shows that a strange confluence of events leading to low oil prices can actually be helpful. Let us hope that a similar result will be possible this time.
Fragilisée par les attaques ukrainiennes, la Russie contrainte de couper ses exportations de diesel
https://www.slate.fr/monde/penurie-mondiale-diesel-russie-ukraine-prix-baril-petrole-brut-carburant-trump?utm_campaign=la-quotidienne&utm_medium=email&utm_edition=202607120400&utm_source=newsletter
In French,
Weakened by Ukrainian attacks, Russia is forced to cut its diesel exports
The Ukrainian drones hit their mark. An indirect consequence: motorists (and others) are likely to face some unpleasant surprises for an indefinite period.
Yes, I am sure that this is a major issue. Some others have been talking about this. Commenter drb lives in Russia, so he shares his perspective on this.
There is diesel, even though it is currently limited to 200 liters per purchase at the station. no queues at least here but many stations closed. In the past I have bought as many as 800 liters in one shot. The government has called everyone with a legal entity (including me) to find out how much diesel we need, and wants to sell direct to us. so export money reduced. what is really rationed is gasoline, and for that there are queues.
According to Prof Robert Pape, he believes that Putin has been stuck in an escalation trap with Ukraine and that the war will likely end like the Korean War with possibly a peace treaty signed for 10 years at the active battle line and with some NATO concessions. Apparently, Ukraine’s recent breakthrough in drone technology came about from American billionaire funding.
Pape is a bargaining fool. Ukraine as a nation can’t structurally survive losing what Russia has taken. Russia has already taken most of the good shit.
In terms of the big picture, I find Gail Tverberg’s work the most reliable, however, in the short term, I’m looking at different experts who use history as their guide (helps me with the fog of war ). The same goes with James Hansen… he mostly relies on paleoclimatology more than models, etc. However both Hansen and Pape have significant blind spots (intentional or self delusional?)
Anti-Immigration UFC Hero Conner McGregor humiliates himself last night.
https://x.com/0xSTILL/status/2076153361464775078
That was indeed a circus. The last two fights each lasted something like a minute. UFC events are hit or miss – one of the reasons I wouldn’t want to attend.
Gail’s whole reasoning is that oil will dominate world energy for the foreseeable future, that maybe true in the short term. The world is transitioning, maybe not fast enough but it is unstoppable. These will be enough oil in the future for the important uses, farming and mining, great. So lets all relax a bit and look forward to a cleaner future, there is no alternative.
Yes, that option is filed under the ” oilz broad bumpy plateau scenario to be cont. for decades ahead “, ft. increasing role of other incoming streams such as natgas, renewables + batt, legacy npps + breeders, etc.
Gail is skeptical towards it in terms of the whole system analysis – dynamics,
because some form of oil input ( & its necessary infrastructure realm ) is always partly present in various industry feeding streams in the background for the ” new energy ” things running to be viable at all.
So, in backbone analysis everything is to some degree [ always soaked in oil ] throughout this entire civilization no matter what. And that sober reality of ” soaked-in ” relationship itself is prone to be limited by various systemic ( ~PO ) and man-made bottlenecks ( polit/war crisis ) through time.. Which is another unknown vector, but at the moment evidently being tested in that Hormuz thing, to provide an example, ..
Perhaps to better illustrate on real example..
– TSLA Semi-truck ft. ~.85MWh battery sized pack ( say 8-16x passenger car eq.), needs a factory, that has been build with lot of direct/indirect oil inputs, but also for cont. operation: delivery of various off-site precursor-inputs/consumables for the factory to churn its final product then. These inputs sourced from all over the world are all soaked and continue to be soak to some degree w. oil into the future! In other words the [ electricity as fuel ] is not a closed cycle in terms of entire globo-economy and likely never will be.. !
Now, that end product, yes the truck will displace certainly big amount of diesel fuel, either looking at it from y/y or lifecycle analysis over several decades of duty. However, the whole global economic bubble surrounding it will have to ensure some limited amount of oil is still available, be it the road maintenance, other ( none electrified ) sectors of economy interacting with the warez just shipped on board of said e-truck cargo bed etc.
So, the often over-used comparison to replacing horses with an automobile is not much correct / helpful discussion. The former grazing pastures for horses where either left aside ala natural preserve, or turned into RE plot, or cont. in agri sector usage, hence we got more people over-all ( and or just individually fattened up through the process ) instead.
What transition, Michael? You say “cleaner” (the whole product life cycle, no it’s not) and in the short term (meaning 5 years to a decade?) Sorry, a link to the Honest Sorcerer lastest debunks your wishful thinking. But that’s OK, it’s a mental coping mechanism and maintains your composure., fine with me
You could be a millionaire.
We are transitioning into becoming a space-faring species.
We don’t need oil in space.
Strange!
Just like we are transitioning to a fusion powered future. We are definitely doing it. Just a couple more minor issues to work out first. But, definitely happening. Definitely.
Thanks for the laugh, really appreciate it 🙂
Do rockets run on unicorn farts, or is their fuel something more realistic?
Facts are just air
They run with unicorn shit.
Transitioning to what ?? Male, female, ot Hermaphrodite?
so we are down to three chew dominated countries and spain. i have yet to see the switzerland highlights as the ukies are at it now but egypt was robbed blind. so kulm might be right, the fix is in to bamboozle the anyway stoopid argentinian people and lease patagonia.
what is particularly unpleasant to me is that for the first 85 years or so the world cup was how american colonies expressed and maintained their still alive nationalism. the great team of 1982, all fascists to some degree, still holds a spot in my heart. now there is nothing left, they are culturally prepared for slaughter.
Forgive me, but i, myself, cannot in any way understand the frenzy over the so called “world cup” and just another “circus” distraction to keep the public “entertained “.
Not that I haven’t watched a bit when I had no choice. I suppose it’s different if one was born a child that it’s was ingrained and conditioned to be a “fan”atic. Enjoy the excitement, “are you not entertained”?
People seem to be desperate to be part of something greater than themselves. It’s almost as if most people are devoid of any purpose and subconsciously seek out people…rulers to tell them what to do, what to be excited about, and who to cheer for.
edpell writes :
” Currently a small group of rich people rule us. We do not want rulers.” I think millions of examples prove otherwise.”
Many people want to be told what to do. The leadership doesn’t want them to do much because that might mess things up, (farming now is a sophisticated industrial process with many moving parts. The average person might “mess things up” growing their own food according to the experts, I think, so they are not encouraged to grow food on their property.)
so they redirect them towards breads and circuses instead of solving problems or fighting.
This joke best encapsulates the prevailing theory of management that rulers follow.
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2022/01/30/future-factory/
the automated factory of the future will have only two
employees: one human and one dog:
The human feeds the dog.
The dog makes sure no one touches the equipment.
It was explained here that Orwell, Huxley and Vonnegut were motivated by Zamyatin.
While the Quoteinvestigator yields origin of the 2 employee factory to be earliest 1978; the short story Second Variety by PKD was published in 1953 and explicably intimates that the factory will eventually preserve itself.
I dislike sport, but I accidentally glimpsed a bit of televised Wimbledon last week. I saw a ball boy scurry robotically to retrieve a ball. He then quickly stood perfectly upright and quickly raised his arm to a perfectly vertical position (looked as if he was going to do a “Zeeg Hiel!”), before throwing the ball equally stiffly and robotically to whomever. I became quite entranced by this routine and half convinced myself that the ball boys were androids who had been donated by Elon Musk. Maybe the time will come when I’m the only human left in my neighbourhood, but without being aware of it.
US Republican Senator Lindsey Graham has died at the age of 71 following a brief and sudden illness.
His office has released a statement saying he died on Saturday evening, adding that Graham’s family “asks for privacy during this incredibly difficult period.”
Elected to the Senate in 2002, the South Carolina politician was one of Washington’s most influential voices on foreign policy and a key ally of Trump.
He had just returned from Kyiv, where he met the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday. There were no known health concerns ahead of his trip.
In a social media post marking the senator’s death, US President Donald Trump said Graham was a “true American Patriot”.
Graham also served as Chairman of the Senate Budget Committee.
He was a strong proponent of US support for Ukraine. In his most recent trip to the country, Graham was working on a version of the Russia sanctions bill, which he said would give “tools to President Trump to end this war.”
“To be weak in Ukraine means that you lose in Taiwan,” he said.
Over the years, Graham clashed with President Trump. After the US Capitol riots in 2021, Graham gave a speech on the Senate floor, in which he said: “Trump and I, we’ve had a hell of a journey. I hate it to end this way.”
“All I can say is a count me out. Enough is enough.”
But he later became one of his staunchest backers and supported Trump in the 2024 election.
He told the BBC in 2023: “There is a dark side to Donald Trump… and he was a very good president. But I am sticking with him because I saw what he did,” citing Trump’s record on the US southern border, the killing of Iran’s Qasem Soleimani and the appointment of conservative judges.
Graham “consistently pushed for outcomes in the War on Terror that protect our long-term national security interests,” his website said.
He was opposed to the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in 2021, describing it as a “sad and dangerous event for US national security…Jihadists all over the world are celebrating. America will be seen as weak.”
Graham was a staunch supporter of Israel. Israel’s President Benjamin Netanyahu paid tribute to Graham, saying “Lindsey understood that the security of Israel and America are inseparable.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgj25j6nmeo
My first reaction:
Seventy-one is still quite young when you are fairly fit and have no obvious health issues. And Lindsay did have the best healthcare package the American taxpayer can buy.
Still, long-haul flights can be fatal, although I doubt he ever flew economy class.
So, the possible causes of death include:
Jet lag?
An overdose of coke with his mate Volodymyr?
A heart attack following too much fun with the boys and/or girls in Kiev?
Execution in Gitmo? (There was a rumor this is what happened to his friend John McCaine.)
A Russian Strike on a building where he was present. (Dozens to hundreds of NATO staff appear to have been blown up in Ukraine recently.)
The Jabs?
RIP Lyndsey. You must have died happy after getting those wars you were aching for all these years.
it could be that he was killed in kiev and this is a coverup. young, tan, unvoluntary catchers of the world rejoice.
In Kiev Friday.
Dead Saturday, after a “brief and sudden illness”.
Maybe the Kiev rent boy said no.
It could have been poisoning, so that he would die a day or two after. or a traumatic incident. Possibly one they could not pin on Russia, or that they could pin on Russia but the political situation (midterms) requires coverup. All options are open, RF has a lot of intelligence there, and there is certainly a lot of pressure here to start punishing the West. We also know that Ukies male models are aggressive. Perhaps he felt entitled to better treatment than Starmer.
I hear that he wasn’t travelling officially, so certain protections lost.
I also hear that he visited a drone factory and Russia destroyed a drone factory.
He may have been one of the tiny few on this planet, that wasn’t entitled to more than Herr Starmer, but with such shared interests as they had, here’s hoping they meet again soon.
Tim,
the “air pressure”
” RIP Lyndsey. You must have died happy after getting those wars you were aching for all these years.”
👍
He took the mantle for the Greek God, Aries.
I did NatZi this coming.
“Long haul flights can be fatal “ huh??? What you talking bout Willis? Is this sarcasm?
Sarcastic? Me? Nopooo, not at all.
Economy class syndrome can be a real killer at that age.
But officially, Graham died from an aortic dissection. No word yet on who dissected him!
====
Senator Lindsey Graham passed away from an aortic dissection caused by arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease (hardening of the arteries). While his specific personal medical records regarding a high blood pressure diagnosis were not publicly broadcast prior to his death, medical experts confirmed that chronic high blood pressure is the primary driver of the artery-hardening condition that caused his dissection.
According to cardiologists and The John Ritter Foundation (no relation to Scott) – for Aortic Health, Graham fit the classic epidemiology of this cardiovascular event. His recognized risk factors for developing an aortic dissection included:
Age: At 71 years old, he was in the peak age demographic (60s and 70s) most susceptible to aortic tears.Arteriosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease: Preliminary findings from the D.C. medical examiner cited this hardening and degeneration of the arteries as the direct underlying cause of the dissection.
High Blood Pressure: Chronic hypertension is the single biggest risk factor for aortic dissection and is the main culprit behind the artery hardening that weakens the aortic wall.
Biological Sex: The condition disproportionately affects men.
Family History: Graham had a family history of cardiovascular issues; his father died of a heart attack in his late 60s.
High-Stress, High-Travel Lifestyle: Medical experts noted that while travel doesn’t cause dissections, his highly demanding job and recent heavy travel (including long-haul flights) may have caused transient blood pressure surges, which can act as a trigger on an already-weakened aorta.
It would be absolutely epic if the Hand went silent assassin on the engineered BNS and all the Zionists on the posters at the engineered Khameini funeral just started dropping like flies one by one until the engineered Zionist clown show couldn’t continue.
The Self-Organizing System works strangely, but this would be very strange.
ks, that’s very stange as analogous to recession 😄
Wouldn’t it be nice to have a “double funeral”, like having a “double wedding” with both like minded “partners” ending it together. Just saying, could have this playing at the service
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YU6TcxAl78&list=RD0YU6TcxAl78&start_radio=1
Well. Now at least the music will cover up all the dirtiness.
WSJ is now saying:
Sen. Lindsey Graham died of an aortic tear due to cardiovascular disease, according to preliminary findings by the District of Columbia medical examiner.
Graham’s office announced the findings on Sunday and said a death certificate will remain pending until all toxicological and microscopic testing is completed.
Every single bit of chaos is being created on purpose. Every last nonsensical bit of it.
The purpose is for when the time comes, you will be begging for order.
Their order.
Ordo ab Chao — Order out of Chaos
Orders, which must be obeyed at all times without question!
Yes organized chaos is a special talent of our human species; whether it’s intentional or not…and in most cases leads to unexpected outcomes.
We “solve” one problem and spurt up ten other worse ones…but it’s good for economic growth
It’s hard to take resources (a job) away from someone who’s “tackling a difficult issue”.
It seems like they’ve been running this game plan for decades. They can never ever cut government spending when they get the chance to because a new problem they would like to solve seems to always manifest right before they cut. In the 1980s, it was crime. There was all sorts of crime that required significant increases in federal government spending. That of course, means more order. More regulations.
48 ships in 120 hours. Russia tankers getting absaloutly slaughtered by Ukraine in sea of Azov. While Russia is running belt feds and anti drone gunners with its trucks running the Crimea gauntlet apparently there was not a single one in this fleet. Probably these are large fixed wing UAVs so some marines with belt feds and tracer could have been quite helpful. Not only that apparently no emergency action was taken during this five day turkey shoot. ??? Sebastopol a stone throws away incapable of responding????IRGC hits something in Hormuz with small arms and it’s world news. Custers last stand in azov… Oh well. Thank you sir may I have another at the exact time fuel is critical in Crimea. I mean who would have thought Ukraine would target these sitting ducks after they did so a couple years ago and the black sea fleet stays on the far side of the black sea. Who could have known?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FPXLPjre30o&pp=ygULNDggdGFua2VycyDSBwkJTwsBhyohjO8%3D
Wow! 48 ships in 120 hours. A person might think that someone wants a world war on their hands.
Third wave of US slaughter on Iran.
https://www.rt.com/news/642902-us-third-night-strikes/
Rt reporting 2 tankers hit in sea of Azov not the 48 documented while reporting on Iran.
Like how drb was caught off guard with the fuel shortages because of Russian media suppression. There’s only one reason why you would find yourself writing a comment like that, huh? The Hand is throwing some nasty combinations right now in service of restructuring oil exports away from the Black Sea. Maybe the Hand doesn’t like the look of oil having to transit the length of the Mediterranean while North Africa gets starved out and then through the Strait of Gibraltar. The Global Peace Accords will be a geopolitical game changer but the Hand ain’t under any illusions that during Phase 2 it’ll have the full-spectrum dominance of the age of bread and circuses.
Now hold on reante most of that black sea oil that makes it to the Mediterranean would presumably be hanging a left at the Suez Canal. But that’s another nasty looking Phase 2 choke point now that everyone thinks Egypt got robbed at the world cup lol.
This is of course inaccurate. We had a brief time in 2023 when they would give me only 400 liters of diesel at a time at the pump. We had another while my manager was driving to the Black Sea and back, 4000 km total, and when I questioned him on his return he said no problems during the whole trip. We had a few more. I always commented here about them. So I thought this was another instance.
“Of course” lol. That’s because you have a selective memory drb.
drb753 says:
June 29, 2026 at 6:25 am
Russia. Situation seems stable at the pump locally, which is the first time in 2 weeks where I have not seen it deteriorating. I am mildly encouraged by the sudden appearance of the fuel crisis in russian news. I was very worried because there was no mention anywhere of the problem which means you are getting fucked bad. Russian people also noticed that and drew comparisons to the 1990s.
In fact yesterday there were 3 articles on it on dzen.ru (yandex news portal). All about the fuel crisis and Putin’s initiatives to quell it, with a stress on the impact on businesses. I yandexed articles on the fuel crisis and indeed there was one on June 24 (which I did not see) and those three in the last 24. so this is now in the open and also I was not imagining things. RIA and RT said nothing during the crisis for example.
This was also true because the government (Moscow) did call me on Friday at 18 and asked me how many tons of diesel I needed. I tried to explain them my situation and they were not interested and hung up. My mechanic has tried to call them today and it is always busy, meaning they are really trying to contact everyone.
So they are doing something. A lot of demand has been destroyed. The tourists are gone. No one is going to buy heavy equipment in the current climate. I think they are very aware of the possibility of losing the war economically now.
No, it is simply you who are a cretin. Th current crisis started around June 15, 2026.
Nobody likes a gaslighter drb. You better watch that shit during Collapse that’ll get you killed.
From the article:
Iran has responded by firing missiles at the Gulf states, with air raid alerts reported in Qatar, the UAE, and Bahrain. The IRGC said it had “destroyed” a command center and hangars housing US MQ-9 Reaper drones at Prince Hassan Air Base in Jordan. The IRGC added that it had targeted a support and refueling facility for US aircraft carriers at the port of Duqm in Oman.
Also:
The US, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar demanded that Iran stop targeting tankers after three ships were hit by projectiles earlier this week. In a statement on Saturday, the IRGC blamed the US for the “incidents,” accusing Washington of “illegally designating” a shipping lane near the Omani coast.
The US has used the lane to guide vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles around a quarter of global seaborne oil and LNG trade.
It is time for BRICS to supply PV and batteries to Cuba. A tanker of oil only lasts for a month until it is burned. PV and batteries can give for many decades.
Don’t count on the batteries for that long. You will need an inverter if you want to run appliances that operate on alternating current. The life spans of inverters seems to be particularly short.
Even with this arrangement, it is not of much help for farming. It also is of now help for mining, or for paving roads. You can perhaps read a few books with LED lights.
https://apnews.com/article/cuba-fuel-crisis-electric-tricycles-fa75dc2aca5b78dac90b1e86c7c762b1
Renewables are better than nothing and innovation or ingenuity will make them even better these solar tricycles are working for the Cubans and the bonus is their is no pollution. In 10 years the whole world will look like Cuba so either we give the world a chance with solar or make do with nothing.
Well, I’d not be that ” far out ” optimistic; but piggybacking on my post bellow:
In practical terms, have tiny setup approaching ~20yrs age based on these ~first gen lithium phosphates ( not basic earlier gen lithiums of 1990s ), basically a sub 1.5kWh sized smallish pack ( for layman: 1/50th of a car ). It’s just very rudimentary ~24VDC backup for storm grid failures ( once in few yrs ) to have the fridge connected ~dozens of minutes or couple hours before the grid is back on, or for charging up flash lights etc.
It has NOT been cycled much, the ” batt. health ” in terms of above depicted low output application is certainly way above 80% after all these years (the inverter another story as I did not get the higher quality stuff).
I bought the batt. when those CHN guys were sort of touring the world with it back then; some early experimenters were putting them in motorbikes, cars etc. At one public venue I asked the engineer about these data spec. sheet longevity limits in practice, and he was bit evasive not in dishonesty style, but explaining to me the wide gamut of aging forcing possibilities out there.. Say, in steamy hot boat engine room environment and w.out proper addon corrosion protection on batt. contacts it won’t last as long as say in my ” baby-sitting ” dwelling only application etc. As some of the internal layers/~pouch cells inside these batt. modules could also soften up and age quicker in extreme hard conditions etc.
There are many specialized forums for particular details in this domain.. it’s all well known – tested to some degree of certainty by this point.
The article says,
The tricycles, with a cost between $2,000 and $4,000, are used to transport goods and serve fixed routes once covered by buses. . .
Some owners have installed solar panels on the awnings over seats of the tricycle, allowing them to recharge on the go and keep operating despite the island’s energy crisis.
It sounds like at least some of them don’t have batteries. Perhaps they only work when the sun is out.
Yes, the time horizon-perspective of longevity for each tech is very important. To trivialize, you can still run ~100-200yrs old steam-coal powered tractor – NOT likely with this electronics stuff.
The batt. question has been answered for now as dependable output for ~20yrs life-span with current generation of various ~lithium products and likely double that with the incoming next gen in the form of [ sodium-ion ] – and the context here being chiefly in hi-tec settings carz/grid energy etc.
Obviously, in Cuban setting ( harsher d/d y/y conditions ), and particularly these e-rickshaw like blast from the past approaches the quality of used products would be lower/cheaper.
In terms of power electronics ( inverters ) this has been mentioned-explained several times already also. Almost any part could be sourced ( post crash / major disruption ) simply by cannibalizing content of another copy of the same product, given the skilled person to perform such job is still around.
Hence the fleet of e-contraptions would be getting smaller y/y, cannibalized for the spare parts essentially, but again this process could be relatively ( un/intuitively ) slow in reality.
I have been studying the longevity of LiFePO4 batteries and inverters. I am on page 293 of Nick’s “Off-Grid Power Simplified ” book which in my layman’s opinion is a good introduction to solar power strategies. Nick also has a You Tube Channel http://www.cleversolarpower.com/off-grid-solar-power-simplified.
I live in northeastern coastal NC where hurricanes sometimes can be a problem, but more ominously, in the southern part of the very stretched PJM (Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland) grid which supplies the northeast -including NYC, Washington DC etc. Thus my interest.
In a nutshell, inverters fail prematurely when they are used to power motorized appliances like refrigerators or AC units whose motors place sudden surge demands on the electronics. This is more problematic with high-frequency inverters as opposed to lower-frequency inverters, which rely on proven copper transformers. I think Victron sells low-frequency inverters with their Multiplus II units, which explains their $$$$ compared to high-frequency inverters which are lighter, cheaper and used for campers and small off-grid situations where weight is also an issue.
Then there is the issue of LiFePO4 battery longevity. The weak link in these may not be the chemical degradation after several thousand charge-discharge cycles, but rather the failure of the built-in electronic BMS (Battery Management System) needed to balance the individual cells within each battery.
We are all well aware of the slow degradation of solar panels, but those can be stored indefinitely. LiFePO4 batteries are best stored at a SOC (state of charge) of 50%.
Yes, quite correct, in the example above I simply grabbed older no-name generic CHN inverter at hand. I’d use (new ~pricey) Victrons only for some core task.
In terms of LiFePO4 it’s often times the better strategy having the oem battery cells from them only, and thus BMS for pack / modules sourced elsewhere “3d party”, either as some top quality separate brand ( oem batt. manufs usually NOT keen to provide with their cells ) or some otherwise proven diy project ( publicly documented ).
There are lot of such integration examples documented, scaled to application desired power output/budget, out there..
PS lets be also realistic about the quality of PV panels as it varies greatly by technology selected, and particular manufacturer, .. it can easily go duds even under ~15yrs.. even in not enviro extreme conditions; yes most of production facilities – assembly lines are newer/updated gen these days, but you never know..
Also people often ( “pro tip” -> ) find out with delay / after the facts that even ~mild hale storm protection is quite shi++y with some brand or manuf. model year..
I look forward to the machine commune that does all the work and is taxed to support human citizen. Maybe they can start small, say, making wooden chairs.
Maybe the most important industry is the weapons industry. Europe is tooling up to make missiles. They should use robots to work 24/7/365.
https://www.rt.com/news/642891-natos-missile-summit-ankara/
The robots making weapons can be taxed to pay for robots to fight on the front line.
“We are living in something much closer to Huxley’s Brave New World. The truth is not hidden – it is almost always readily available. But it is buried beneath an industrial quantity of noise: propaganda, outrage, half-truths, conspiracy theories, influencer theatre, algorithmic rage bait and an endless stream of content designed not to inform us, but to keep us emotionally stimulated. The modern information system does not need to censor the truth when it can simply drown it in noise. “?
https://x.com/BiankaB12/status/2075840051456401551?s=20
That quote pretty well describes the current situation.
Both Huxley and Orwell plagiarized Yevgeny Zyamatin’s book “We”, something Kurt Vonnegut, who did not hide that he used ideas from that book, pointed out when he was criticized for that.
Info is very atomized. People only look for what they want, so it is possible to not know where the world is going to and just watch whatever they follow now.
So what, it happens in many trades and professions…
You’re just a whiner and sore commoner
PS Glad you don’t own any inherited landing theUK
Please don’t let Kulm’s soliloquies get you down, Mike. They are meant for our edification.
Also, he is nostalgically lamenting the passing of a golden age and a far more humane and civilized society than the one we inhabit today.
There is no way back there, of course, but one can remember and one can dream.
I imagine Kulm speaking in a Mitteleuropean accent in the voice of the late great Peter Lorre.
I am not sure what specific books from Huxley and Orwell you are referring to, or what specific books Vonnegut had in mind.
It is worth reading all four authors.
At least ‘Wir’, ‘1984’, ‘Animal Farm’, ‘Brave New World’, ‘Das höllische System’.
If different authors describe similar dystopian ideas from different angles it is an advantage, I think.
Even in science like mathematics you have different authors describing same theories, each one probably giving different proofs for theorems, or providing different examples for better illustrations. This is an advantage. You might not grasp one example immediately but might find another example from another author quite illustrative.
Huxley’s essays are always over-looked, and many of them are brilliant.
I often recall his assessment that in propaganda under a totalitarian system,,the suppression of the truth is much more effective than lies.
Lies wear out, but keep people completely in the dark and you’ve got them at your mercy.
Excellent point, Kulm. Zamyatin’s work deserves far more recognition than it has received.
The exhilarating dystopian novel that inspired George Orwell’s 1984 and foreshadowed the worst excesses of Soviet Russia.
Yevgeny Zamyatin’s We is a powerfully inventive vision that has influenced writers from George Orwell to Ayn Rand. In a glass-enclosed city of absolute straight lines, ruled over by the all-powerful ‘Benefactor’, the citizens of the totalitarian society of OneState live out lives devoid of passion and creativity – until D-503, a mathematician who dreams in numbers, makes a discovery: he has an individual soul. Set in the twenty-sixth century AD, We is the classic dystopian novel and was the forerunner of works such as George Orwell’s 1984 and Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World. It was suppressed for many years in Russia and remains a resounding cry for individual freedom, yet is also a powerful, exciting and vivid work of science fiction. Clarence Brown’s brilliant translation is based on the corrected text of the novel, first published in Russia in 1988 after more than sixty years’ suppression.
Zamyatin was one of the luckier Soviet dissident/non-conformist writers in that Stalin allowed him to leave the country and he spent his last six years in Paris, where he died aged 53 in 1937.
https://www.britannica.com/biography/Yevgeny-Zamyatin
To what extent Huxley and Orwell plagiarized from We is vexed question.
Orwell definitely read it. In January 1946, he published a review of the French edition (Nous Autres) in the Tribune, writing that We was a clear inspiration for Aldous Huxley’s work. His deep appreciation and assimilation of Zamyatin’s themes directly informed his drafting of Nineteen Eighty-Four.
While there is intense scholarly consensus that We influenced Brave New World (1931), Huxley consistently denied reading the novel prior to writing his own. However, because a widely distributed English translation had been available since 1924, it is highly probable he had access to it.
One of the purpose of the outrageous tweets emanating from the WH these last few months; issued under the name of Trump, but almost certainly not drafted by him.
A barrage of claims, insults, threats and lies which serve to hide what is really transpiring, and what is possible.
Of course, to some degree, everyone is at it.
Kevin Walmsley’s latest video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWl8_DYzZWE
Simple Math: why construction companies buy materials directly from Chinese factories. Should you?
Blurb:
The International Building Fair attracts tens of thousands of homebuilders and property developers to Guangzhou, along with thousands more sourcing agents.
Building materials and supplies are in shortage in most global markets. Soaring costs for land transport, and for warehouse services, mean that even small building companies can save hundreds of thousands of dollars per year, by directly sourcing their materials from Chinese factories.
Eliminating local distributors and box stores cuts product costs by up to half, including freight. It also eliminates the stockouts problem that is such a challenge to builders.
We run the numbers on three small- and medium-sized businesses. Should they source their products directly from Chinese factories? And should they use their own trucks to pick up containers at the nearest port of entry? Or should they outsource freight operations completely?
In some ways Ukraine can be regarded as a possibility of a model for new management systems placed. Economy is a interesting word. Ukraines economy started transforming after 2014. Today very little remains of the prior economy.
This can be regarded as a example of when a new management system is inserted
Technology is key to this as technology is often quite powerful.
The inserted management system used minority beliefs and extrapolated them into widespread majority beliefs. This is a demonstrated example of insertion of management systems.
In Ukraines new economy it is one of the predominant military providers in the world.
Now Ukraine is beginning to be recognized not as a burden but a investment.The conflict serves as training opportunities for individuals looking to radically increase their skill set and value within military and extrajudicial organizations.
It is impossible to contain the revolutionary innovation demonstrated in Ukraine or the success of a inserted management system. These economic management systems can be regarded as hybrids created for specific solutions for specific conditions.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dV2-9DOzRgA&pp=iggCQAE%3D
When is Congress set to have a “Declaration of War” vote on Iran? I keep hearing the term WAR over and over again by the Administration and other officials and yet our elected officials have yet approved it? This is NOT how Democracy works.
We have not declared war since world war 2. Under present law the president can conduct military operations in an emergency for a certain amount of days, after which congress has to approve funding of the operations. After so many days the operations must stop unless congress approves funding. This operation appears to be stretching the limit on what the president can do. I. believe he is past the limit since congress has not acted to approve the funding. I don’t see the legal basis for what the president is doing.
Oh, sorry wrong selection of words..but
Yes, Congress approved the military invasion of Iraq in October 2002 by passing the Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq Resolution of 2002. The vote gave President George W. Bush the legal authority to use military force to disarm Iraq, remove its government, and defend U.S. national security.The resolution passed with strong bipartisan support in both chambers:House of Representatives: Approved 296-133 on October 10, 2002.Senate: Approved 77-23 on October 11, 2002.Decades later, in March 2023, the Senate voted to officially repeal this 2002 authorization and the 1991 Gulf War resolution, in an effort to restore war powers to Congress.
First the trend of energy cessation must include the gulf. Then Trump can blamed for everything and be the catalyst for the changes that will occur with reduction in energy consumption. The changes will be ongoing. A process.
V2.0 v 3. 0 ecetera. Looks like Reante was right. A attempt at maintaining some sort of order as energy consumption reduces via popular aka inserted beliefs. The delay in ending gulf energy inputs may be so the management process matches gulf energy cessation in timing. A radical structural paradigm shift is necessary to match the energy consumption reduction. The opportunity will be taken to eliminate some of the more bothersome unsustainable aspects of the old paradigm.
Necessarily there are not winners and losers in this process as of course from a standard of living perspective every one loses as energy consumption reduces. Winners and losers perspective is absaloutly necessary for the theatre.
All we have is trends. Everything else is theatre. Trump is not mad just dancing to the beat of the management apparatus. He plays one of the great villains.
Using the major trend of cessation of energy transit beginning with Nordstream it is my belief that energy cessation out of the gulf will be completed prior to the new year. That’s the job. Ceasing energy production out of the gulf is finishing the job. The other aspect of the job is theatre to enable the management process.
You better not be teasing me again like the last time you cosplayed your way into god mode.
Why would the Hand want to eliminate much of the cheapest energy on the planet if it hopes to slow Collapse? That’s clownshow strategy. Hand strategy is the opposite of clownshow strategy.
I am not sure it is the cheapest oil on the planet. The wells are mostly very old wells. There is a need for taxes to support the government to be included in the price of oil. Population has been rising, so the amount of subsidy likely keeps rising.
There are a few places with oil available, fairly cheaply. UAE seems to be one of them.
Thanks. Included in the DA is the forecast that the consumption of energy exporting countries will be drastically reduced in order to maximize exports, particularly to nuclear countries.
Would you guess that the ME is the lowest cost high volume producer of all regions or not? I don’t know as much about that as you but nowhere else jumps out to me.
We have a difficult time with nuclear because we don’t have enough mined uranium. This problem is especially bad in the Western Hemisphere. Kazakhstan is the largest producer. Australia seems to have significant resources that can be mined, if there is sufficient sulfuric acid, among other things.
The problem with mining uranium is the price of uranium doesn’t rise high enough for long enough to build new mines. I forget the exact number of years for a new mine–well over 10. The West isn’t good at reprocessing fuel used in power plants, either. We have been living off of down-blended nuclear warheads from Russia and the United States. Now those are in short supply.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2024/11/11/nuclear-electricity-generation-has-hidden-problems-dont-expect-advanced-modular-units-to-solve-them/
My point about nuclear was just that until decommissioning happens those countries naturally need to be prioritized to make sure they remain stable enough for the decommissioning. It seems to me that this would apply to a lesser degree for nuclear weapons since it’s easy to decommission nuclear weapons.
No opinion on the oil question? Almost all ME oil is diesel friendly heavy sour right? International ost sharing of production is pretty much a given if you ask me. Necessity is the mother of invention.
Very helpful Reante…. thank you…
Can you elaborate more on EROI (Charlie Hall’s work) as we move more into global economic collapse and/or shrinkage?
In following Gail’s lead on the subject, I believe we’re in general agreement that EROEI is obviously a fundamental technical aspect of peak oil collapse but that it’s not a very useful one for dynamically modeling Collapse because EROEI is not adequately quantifiable.
Reason, however, says that the average EROEI of surviving plays will improve with economic collapse because, generally speaking, the lower-return plays will disappear from global production.
Well, well, well, I now can’t discriminate between the Hand and the Clown now.
The Hand has gotten so old that it slips things one out of two times.
A certain delusionist who used to frequent here floated the 80-20 principle, i.e. if something works 20% of the time it works.
I shot him back that if you have to be operated and the dr only succeeds 20% of the time would you be operated by that doctor? He never answered.
Now the Hand is often undistinguishable from clown.
It’s might be impossible to tell if the Hand makes a mistake because it is inside and we are outside. Calling it a clown makes you a clown.
Rather than knocking out the ME oil supply – much of which appears to be on it’s last legs anyway, but not all – wouldn’t one be better off simply eliminating much of the local population and establishing full, overt control?
They are not needed for the exploitation of resources in this region, nor for generating demand – the rest of the world can supply that.
And as we know, most of the real work is done by outsiders anyway.
Yeah overthrowing the profligate and Zio-adjacent ME ruling classes is the bare minimum. And as hideous as it is to think about, ME oil production is not directly dependent on the desalinization plants. BNS is setting up to get real ugly.
This is not democracy. It is rule by money.
Thank you for spelling it out plainly…and without the “spice/oil” there ain’t no mojo
THE BERMUDA TRIANGLE OPENS THE DOOR
➡️ The Strait of Hormuz now operates like the Bermuda Triangle where vessels and 20,000 mariners never know from one day to the next whether safe passage exists.
➡️ This constant uncertainty created the perfect opening for a new kind of energy power play.
THE CHINA DEMAND WEAPON
➡️ For the last 45 days China stopped buying 6 to 7 million barrels per day in the open market.
➡️ Instead Beijing is draining its 1.4 billion barrel strategic reserves to create intentional demand destruction.
➡️ Eckard states clearly this is worse than normal demand destruction because it is completely intentional and calculated.
➡️ The result could push oil prices into the low 70s, the 60s, or even the $50 range.
THE PRODUCER SQUEEZE
➡️ Crushed prices force companies worldwide to slash capital spending and delay new drilling projects.
➡️ China simply waits to refill its own storage at the lowest prices once producers capitulate.
➡️ This demand swing tactic has never appeared in Eckard’s four decade career.
THE 180 DAY POWER PLAY
➡️ China consumes 11.5 to 11.7 million barrels daily yet produces only 4.5 million barrels at home.
➡️ Its reserves give Beijing the ability to halt all imports for roughly 180 days if required.
➡️ No supply swing player has ever held this level of demand side leverage until now.
THE BOTTOM LINE
China has turned Strait of Hormuz uncertainty into a powerful demand weapon that lets them crush prices today and quietly restock tomorrow at everyone else’s expense.
This is the sound of a new energy order being born where demand manipulation becomes the ultimate strategic tool.
https://x.com/Mark4XX/status/2075960807737704693
That is an interesting view. China’s government has no doubt played a major role in buying all of this oil when prices were low. No doubt, this buying pattern helped keep oil prices from falling any lower than they already were. In some sense, this buying in advance was likely helpful to the world oil market, since it helped keep oil prices from falling way too low for producers.
What could go wrong, one may ask?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxOCL2FI-uQ
A video with my favorite AI person. Does anybody know a name for this AI? Who created it?
This Tiny 1.9MB Tool Is Destroying Microsoft’s Windows 11 Plans
This is an AI video about a tiny program that is destroying Microsoft’s Windows 11 Plans. The speaker is very familiar, from many other AI videos.
Regarding who made the video, I remember reading a partial explanation. The view was that the videos are made in India, because of some of the idioms used. I forget how much more is known. It seems like one of the videos accidentally left in some information about who made it.
According to these recent news updates on Muskianic universe, they now have AI hardware ft. 32-64GB RAM for the upcoming fully autonomously driven robotaxi fleet.
Why it is important / relevant, because their system is fully vision processing based, not depending on say radar/lidar etc. It’s truly more closer to ” an artificial living form ” an artificial brain-soul vs other more plain / rudimentary robot efforts out there..
From that we can infer this is also the ~min. threshold for next gen AI – humanoids roaming the streets in say early 2030s.
To put it in perspective, 32-64GB RAM vs 4MB RAM for the mid 1990s Nokia Communicator, yes comparing carrots to flambeed bananas, but at least some metrics. So, that’s ” intelligence processing ” jump in factor of 8 000 – 16 000x ; obviously that’s just a crudely attempted comparison as the AI hardware works/flows in parallel tasks as natural nervous systems do etc. So, the real abyss of say past ~30yrs between two such gadgets is actually way bigger..
Hm, up to this point, I did not pay close attention, just took it as mundane ~ IT / tech advancements.. BUT NOW it’s apparently very worrisome, in terms of mass-deployment of real AI goons, protecting then whom-ever is in power.
Mind you they could then take such ” AI ” into whatever form factor, be it humanoid, dog-animal sized, grizzly bear, mega-anaconda or even large pterodactyl flying above you and lobbying bombs down on the unworthy earthlings etc.
” The slump is evident in sales. Across the EU, new car registrations in 2025 remained nearly 30% below 2019 levels, while the UK market also failed to recover to its pre-pandemic performance.
Germany has been hit hardest, with the industry shedding around 125,000 jobs since 2019. In France, automotive employment has fallen by roughly a third since 2010, dropping from about 425,000 to fewer than 290,000 workers. In Italy, the wider manufacturing sector has lost more than 103,000 jobs since 2008, while a further 12,650 automotive positions are considered at risk.
https://web.archive.org/web/20260710015108/https://www.rt.com/business/642624-europe-auto-industry-crisis/
Spreading misinformation is a crime. You have been warned.
I presume you intend to be kidding.
The WSJ had an article today in which it showed that the vehicles sold in 2025 per employee was 14 for VW and 28 for Toyota. Clearly, production is much more automated at Toyota than VW.
The chart with these figures shows following figures for other companies:
Ford 26 cars
GM 25
Stellantis 22
BMW 16
Mercedes Benz 13
https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/volkswagens-vast-jobs-factory-is-under-threat-like-never-before-74566696
I guess you know that, but just for over-all clarification: BMW and Benz are ~lux brands ( notable part of their production ), their factories churn lower volume yet with higher price tag per copy..
It seems that Benz is not in large panic vs ascending Asian lux brands for the moment, but BMW has been feeling the pain lately ( say ala Audi/VW ), hence the recent panic wave of pivoting into that kiddo-style shockingly awful-horrendous designs..
They forgot Xiaomi. Because it you include them the rest is meaningless. Xiaomi is basically down to 0 factory workers per car. Overall the number isn’t known as they produce so many other things but estimates are about 1 employee for 100 cars a year…
Yes, in shorthand the nascent future of automotive industry on next level robotization is brutal for most of the legacy also runs ( brands / old manuf. hub-sites ).
The thing is [ new factories and their product ] say in CHN / new_US are already conceived with the %%productivity jump that old-er factories ( and their products for it ! ) can no longer compete.
No what’s ahead? Closure, wave of bankruptcies, lower output and less varied products ( fewer “brands ” ) just to live for another day on the way out, plus int. tariff-wars for a moment ?, employee strikes etc.
Then as alluded before partly turned over into AI robot goons production.
Eventually, it all leads to some other extreme pole: ubiquitous commoditization ala hard sci-fi reality, where the indiv personal choices are very limited ( not on offer anymore ).
Thanks again for the tip.
There are several videos even from major W. msm outlets in recent months about these new ” Dark factories of CHN ” – assembly plants with so few people inside the entire sections are not under light for large part of the week.. PR gimmick? or for real.. Now this whole concept of total robotization is so profitable ( in comparison to legacy factories ) it jumps across these high tariff barrier to EU(US) as well, notably revamped factory for the XPeng brand in Austria.. and soon likely elsewhere etc.
Also, worth mentioning is that this highly intensive robotic system is likely more fit to accommodate “EREV” type of vehicles, where ~small traction battery is supplied by generator only mode combustion ( gasoline ) engine of smaller dimensions and complexity; the key difference from more costly PHEV vehicles of today is that these still retain two quasi independent modes of fuels working in parallel or solo.. always directly transferring power to the wheels. While the EREV approach has been achieved only now via newer gen of batts. which maintain long cycle life even with way demanding-rapid charge/discharges in such a setup. Surprisingly, it’s mature enough by now, hence why they are deploying it already, I guessed it was more delayed still.
PS now the most important question remains, who will ultimately buy these ( even if more affordable ) contraptions both in CHN or EU/US respective markets, when people ” stopped working ” for salary.. under these vanishing jobs mega trends.
So we are back into the very old debates, how machines would eventually null most of the employment needs under this scenario.
Is this a Zerohedge exaggeration?
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/leftists-celebrate-murder-conservative-british-politician
The savage killing of 78-year-old Reform UK spokeswoman Ann Widdecombe has unleashed a torrent of vile celebration from left-wing activists, revealing the depths of ideological hatred among the left in the UK.
Widdecombe, the outspoken former Conservative MP and prisons minister, was found dead with serious injuries at her Dartmoor home, prompting an immediate murder investigation by Devon and Cornwall Police.
Police keenly informed the public that a 26-year-old white British man has been arrested on suspicion of the crime. The incident is not being treated as terrorism, but the public reaction – particularly from leftist corners – has shocked many and exposed a chilling tolerance for violence against political opponents.
That’s just expedient US jargon slander..
As ” left-wing activist ” is wide tent – banner for many various, often non aligned sub-groups. For example, given our today’s realities there are evidently some ” genuine leftists groups ” out there still in awe submission and adoring posture in direction of that perennial ~nazi family derived ” head ” of the EU Comm. etc.
“Police keenly informed the public that a 26-year-old white British man has been arrested on suspicion of the crime.”
They released him and have now arrested a 28-year-old white British man. “Keenly informed” – probably a precaution, because you know what is liable to happen in England these days if rumours spread of a non-white immigrant committing a particular crime.
Otherwise, well, you know the internet. People’s usual filters do not always operate when they are alone with their computer or mobile / cell phone.
But yes – a brutal murder of an elderly woman politician.
Here are some of Ann Widdecombe’s pithiest quotes:
Television turns out a diet of swearing, drunkenness, drug-taking, shouting and screaming, abuse of authority, sex, criminality and provocative humor, delivered in Estuary English. That is before the watershed; after which it merely gets worse.
For years there’s been an assumption that as society gets more civilised and doesn’t have a death penalty, it’s going to be a much gentler, kinder, more decent society to live in. Now look at the society we do live in as a result of all that thinking. It’s a society in which children kill each other, the murder rate has absolutely shot up, you’ve got rampant paedophilia. That’s the society which all this so-called enlightened thinking has created and it’s because we’ve lost sight of one very fundamental fact. There is such a thing as evil and if you do not fight it, it will eventually triumph.
The only way you can interest people in politics is when they’re faced with a real choice. When I had my first vote the world was divided into two conflicting political ideologies – capitalism versus communism. There was an enormous difference in this country between the Conservative Party and a socialist party. Young people today have never seen a socialist party. Blair (Tony Blair) and Brown (Gordon Brown) weren’t about socialism, Foot (Michael Foot) and Kinnock (Neil Kinnock) were. It mattered to people who ran the country. Now they don’t see that difference. They’re not making decisions about political philosophy.
To fight socialism and solve seemingly insoluble problems. (On her reason for going into politics)
It was non-stop vulgarity. To record 30 minutes for the programme you have to film it for two and a half hours. And two and a half hours of Carr’s sense of humour was more than I could stand. (On appearing on Have I Got News For You with Jimmy Carr)
I was walking across King’s Cross station when a drunken Irishman came stumbling up and flung his arms around me. He wanted to thank me for the peace process in Northern Ireland.
There have to be sensible limits to the smoking ban. Some councils want to ban smoking in parks and meanwhile a campaign grows to ban smoking in all public places including the streets. Heaven help the children of smokers if mum or Dad can no longer nip outside for a fag but give these busybodies enough time and smoking will be banned from private houses on the grounds that visiting workmen might be affected. I have never been a smoker and I do not like cigarette smoke but I need a lot of convincing that I shall be unable to avoid it in a park. Freedom should be curtailed only in the interests of protecting others from harm and not merely to give jobs or satisfaction to petty officials. Or is that no longer a basic tenet of British life?
[on Brexit] We’ve got the worst prime minister since Anthony Eden, we’ve got the worst leader of the opposition in the entire history of the Labour Party, and we’ve got the worst parliament since Oliver Cromwell, and with that combination we’ve got the most important negotiation in 50 years.
Nigel Farage has been more successful than any politician other than Margaret Thatcher that I can think of in my lifetime of getting his agenda through, and he’s actually done it from outside Westminster.
If this killing turns out to be a political assassination, and even if it doesn’t, it is going to translate into a few million more votes for Reform at the next general election. Makes me wonder whether the Hand had a Hand in it.
“If this killing turns out to be a political assassination, and even if it doesn’t, it is going to translate into a few million more votes for Reform at the next general election.”
A few MILLION more? Really, Tim, I think you’ve lost the plot. I’d be surprised if anybody will be doing sympathy votes for her (or for any deceased politician of any stripe), come the next election of whatever sort. It’ll be about the issues. You must have had a soft spot for Miss Widdecombe. I’ll have to get reante to give you a stiff talking to.
Miss Widdecombe was well past her heyday. She was very reactionary in many ways and even converted to the Roman Catholic church, which is corrupt to its rotten core – a distinctly unEnglish thing to do. She did have her points and was very performative and got herself noticed. Her death must have been horrific, though, and she certainly never did anything to deserve to be murdered in cold blood.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUS0cBdFicI
Ann Widdecombe likens Brexit to the emancipation of slaves in EU parliament speech
Estuary English – good turn of phrase but a rather stuffy, elitist political sentiment if you ask me.
I agree with Tim that there’s more than one way to steal an election, or just ensure that there’s a wide enough margin for error. I also agree with Tim that the mounting issues you refer to are in political alignment with her martyrdom. I also acknowledge that the transparently one-sided attempts by the neoliberal establishment to keep a lid on inter-ethnic strife in that extremely overcrowded little fishbowl has legitimate political value; frankly it’s just common sense statecraft but since Collapse is a tipping point that inverts most everything, such common political sense can now also be framed as a Problem for the controlled opposition to React to in order to find a moderate Solution for it at the ballot box.
It’s a nothing story.
Mad old dear gets murdered(shame, but no big deal).
As far as the media following public goes, why bother building complicated stories, when they are so thick, you could tell them South Atlantic plankton are invading the country, raping everyone and they would follow along. Can you imagine the outrage when they find out the sneaky little bastards don’t even need a dingy to get to these sacred shores.
If you doubt that, may I remind you of covid and the million white girls raped(just in little old England), or if you want to go beyond the realms of your average mental illness, 100% Safe & Effective.
Don’t tell me there’s anything they wouldn’t believe. You have Trump for God’s sake and plenty of people far too willing to believe him(I really want to call him the pompadour pedo, but he just hasn’t got enough hair left to carry it off).
She’s not a martyr, whatever they’re called have no chance of getting enough votes(probably won’t even exist soon) and only the really thick believe otherwise, because the outrageous stories they come out with are just that(remember 1m white girls raped by a small group of taxi drivers). So thick, it’s a suprise that they can even remember how to breathe. Thankfully for the rest of us, being so thick they are easy to distract, so some advice for anyone that might have the misfortune of bumping into one or more of them. Carry some crayons(they like drawing crosses. It soothes them, just don’t whatever you do, tell them that George was basically a Palestinian, or inquire about the sudden appearance of thousands of star of remphans on all their “marches”).
Thanks Fitz
I have shown that there has been no reset in the British isles since 1066. All the landowners who were there since 1066 are mostly there, with minor changes not significant enough to note. I don’t know too much about Ireland but the old families there seem to be quite strong there as well.
Once a landowner family is set up, you do not care who is the President or whatever. The whole region is the landowner’s, including the police, fire department, school, church, you name it.
You don’t get a job if you cross the landowner, who can run over anyone he feels like and the police and the court will keep silent since if they cross him they are out of the town.
Landowners tend to be farmers. They know how to cull their herd and how to destroy bad crops, and they have the same standards over two legged animals. They tend to be quite merciless over their tenants, and will gladly show their power as central authority weakens.
I have to laugh over the movies about refugees during a collapse. Like the town of Gretna after Katrina, the locals will simply set up roadblocks to block any flow of refugees, and kill everyone who crosses it. The landowners will ride , horses , pick up trucks or 4x4s, and happy run over those who cross them.
This works, as long as the landowner can defend his land. I doubt that this works, when the whole system collapses. If the landowner can no longer get diesel for his vehicles that need diesel, he has a problem. If the landowner can no longer buy food from markets, he has a problem, unless he grows and processes his own food.
70% of the land in Britain is still owned by 1% of the population. Many descend from William the Conqueror’s army
Norman descendants are still doing very fine in today’s Britain.
https://www.zmescience.com/other/economics/britain-70-percent-william-conqueror-rep/
Interesting. I spent 2-3 months in Louisiana post-Katrina. Working for an ad agency, I took a 1-week tour of the devastation from Pax Christian to Lake Charles with a film crew documenting the damage to insured fire companies then returned for a stint with a relief organization doing drywall and roofing work in several areas.
Here’s some background on the Gretna story (CJR, E.B. Colby 2025):
“Leave it to NPR, then, two weeks after the news first broke, to explain clearly and concisely what Lawson and his compatriots were thinking when they turned the desperate people of New Orleans back. “City officials emphatically defend themselves and ask that their side be heard,” Burnett reported. He then quoted Lawson:
“I’m very pissed off … I am, because I’ve been painted as a racist and this community’s good reputation has been blemished because of something that we did because the city of New Orleans was ill-prepared to handle the situation that they had and expected us to evacuate their city without any preparation, without any notice, without any contact …
“We were not contacted by anybody in the city of New Orleans, police or city officials, prior to, during, or since the storm. No one called us and said, can you handle these people? Can you help?”
The chief’s decision to seal the bridge “prompted accusations of racial prejudice,” Burnett went on, “But Lawson explains that initially Gretna police commandeered buses and used them to ferry more than 5,000 evacuees to a rescue site. But more and more kept coming, and after a day of this shuttling, he says, his small police force became overwhelmed.”
Added Harry Lee, the sheriff of Jefferson Parish: “FEMA didn’t have any food for those people in Gretna. They didn’t give me any food. I didn’t have any water. My obligations are to the people of Jefferson Parish.”
Concluding the explanatory narrative, Burnett reported that Gretna officials had already been put on edge the day before by a mall fire set by “hooligans from New Orleans,” leading to their decision to shut down the bridge to all pedestrian traffic.”
Itrustmydog will like the above statement.
All these are just post fact statements, not consistent with the real events.
The landowners didn’t do quite so well in France after 1789, or Russia after 1917, or China after 1948, did they?
Charles X of France, reinstalled by the courtesy of city of London, issued huge bonds so the nobles could buy the land back at a lower price so they have returned
That’s a fair point.
By the way, it’s interesting that in Japan after the unconditional surrender, MacArthur implemented a major land reform program that gave farm land to the people farming it, taking it away from the landlords.
According to Grok:
MacArthur’s 1946–1950 land reform was one of the most effective postwar reforms:
Dramatic redistribution: Tenancy dropped from ~46–50% to under 10%. Millions of tenant farmers became small owner-cultivators.
Social/political impact: Reduced rural poverty and inequality, broke landlord power (often tied to prewar militarism), stabilized the countryside, and helped prevent communist influence by creating a class of small “rural capitalists” invested in the system.
Economic impact: Contributed to social stability that supported Japan’s broader economic miracle. It had mixed direct effects on agricultural productivity (some studies say limited boost or even slight drag due to tiny plots), but greatly improved rural living standards and equity.
It’s widely regarded as a major success story in development economics for its speed, fairness, and long-term stabilizing effects.
========
In recent decades, these new land owners have tended to abandon their rice paddies, or even build houses on them. Tens of millions of rural dwellers have upped stakes and headed for the cities, leaving the countryside increasingly abandoned. What the British accomplished in Scotland with the highland clearances and in Ireland with the potato famine has been achieved in Japan simply by providing the peasants with better economic opportunities in industry and commerce.
an equal distribution of wealth is impossible, and instead technofeudalism is more likely to prevail.
Land is finite, and landowners tend to be the most conservative, most against changre and most likely to maintain things as they are.
They will never, never, never give up their land or privileges, never.
In the days before, sharecrop rents were usually 30-40% of total harvest, sometimes higher. if a tenant died, plenty of others to fill the gap.
Such was how everything worked, and as Gregory Clark has proven, only the landowners (and some businessmen, not seen before about 1500) tended to leave descendants , the line of the poor all ground to dust.
Such is how the world works. The landowner wins in the end. Period.
Perhaps you have to set historical time-space boundaries for that presented type of argument.
For example, picture today’s UK for a moment, the landed classes are surely like at least 80% of the former pedigree stock, while the over-all majority of metro / suburb inhabitants influenced by recent (100yrs) immigrant waves from vastly diff. cultures is fast approaching 40-60-70% majorities (depending on given spot-locale) thus completely re-formatting en bloc the entire society.
So, in order to remain in power ( on their estates into the future ) the landed caste has to found some modus vivendi w. the newly structured society. Some claim this two-tier society could be cleverly managed into the future ( puppeteer-ing essentially ); well I guess long historical account seems more than clear on the negative outcome instead. As the landed elite will be sooner or later wiped-out by the ascending newcomer’s replacement wave aka say few decades remaining, tops ~2050-2100.. ; also some forms of blending-merger scenarios for elites are also possible, but eventually the over-all pop re-formatting process is the same inescapable time vector in the end.
We have ample historical accounts about ~similar dynamics taken place over say past 5k yrs at the min.
oops meant as reply to your 7:32 post..
I anticipate the corrupt royals to convert to Islam one day.
Of course, they will. Ritualistically easy religion, when one has to simply bend-over 5 times a day and do not commit sins during daylight in Ramadan.
reante and a small handful of others here would be fully vindicated, as well – re: the Disappearance Act (same as it every was, right?)
Another substantial benefit to the remaining societies – hysterical biological females will be shown their places once and (hopefully) forever under the new and shiny 1000-year Sharia Law 🧕🤦♀️😅
Hindus vs Muslims.
Just like Mughal india.
Ironically it was Britain who overthrew the Mughals and made Hindus great again.
Or , like the Clearances of the past, the landowners and their gendarme will wipe out the newcomers.
with the overpop being corrected, the landowners have the edge.
Cultural and economic terraformers.
Owning the means of production works, as long as the system continues well enough. If the landowner needs diesel and fertilizer from elsewhere, all bets are off.
Pre Industrial Farms were run without FF with animal labor.
The strong soil of Ukraine needed 16 horses to till, which is why only large landowners could thrive there before Stalin introduced tractors.
And the landowners resisted , leading to the Holodomor in 1930s. They would rather go down with everyone than share their wealth.
We don’t have the horses to do this now. And we have way too many people to support with this type of agriculture. The horses need to be fed also.
Yeah farmers aren’t farmers anymore. They’re literally just plug and play, point and click equipment operators.
I agree. We lack the equipment for draft Powered agriculture as well, in addition to the specialized knowledge of training and working with draft animals
And when draft farming one has to devote acreage just to feeding the draft animals, which reduces food available for human.
re:horses
https://cdn.minds.com/fs/v1/thumbnail/1775152573776158720/xlarge/
In addition to horses, of several different breeds, great oxen and mules, too.
Mostly taken out and shot post-WW2: the careful breeding of many centuries just thrown away.
People tend to think of the draught animals as in some way taking away from productive land, but they mostly grazed on land which wasn’t suitable for the plough anyway.
And they contributed fantastic quantities of prime fertilizer!
I think that oxen were better for providing the services you talk about. They graze on whatever is around. But it is my understanding that horses need the higher calories of grain. They also don’t have four stomachs.
That black soil, that Ukrainian Kulaks claimed to be theirs (up to approximately 1933), used to belong to completely different people, the latter people apparently had domesticated the horse somewhere in that region some 25000 years ago…
The whole story goes much deeper. We’ll see.
I assume you meant neofeudalism rather than technofeudalism. The only neofeudalism will be microfeudalism which is just a euphemism for people falling in together on land that one or a couple of them has a claim to as either a legacy claim from the Before Times or by virtue of them just being the Big Man alpha dogs who know how to git er done.
Trump says thousands of missiles aimed at Iran as US sets Hormuz deadline .
https://www.iranintl.com/en/liveblog/202607116587
Washington reportedly gave Iran until tomorrow to declare Hormuz open and toll-free, and to admit the ship attacks were a mistake
That’s the Axios framing: a public statement by Saturday, every channel open, no fees, plus an acknowledgment that “they screwed up,” with one official warning it won’t be a great day for Tehran otherwise.
Larry Johnson rated the odds of compliance in two flavors: no way, and no way in hell.
The surrounding picture is pure contradiction.
Trump posts that Iran asked to keep talking and the ceasefire is over, in the same breath.
Talks are reported for Islamabad, Switzerland, AND Jordan simultaneously while Iran’s side denies any of it.
And per Larry’s sourcing, redeployment orders keep getting countermanded, units sent home now told to stay, someone randomly pulling levers in the control booth.
He expects strikes within 24 hours.
The political ceiling in Tehran was set by Khomeini’s own grandson this week: anyone negotiating peace with America is a traitor, because the killing planted an enmity that never goes away.
One detail says how seriously the threat reports landed: per the WSJ, Trump flew home from Ankara on the OLD Air Force One, because the Qatari-donated jet lacks the defenses for an elevated-risk flight.
https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2075766146335121805
Well, there is also that at least partially legit argument that the Iranian side
DOESN’T act nor talk in single voice at all. Simply, the ~autonomous power centers ( civ govs vs religious leader and linked militia )* are maintaining their own – specific agenda throughout the pre/during/after phases of the conflict.
Yes, partly perhaps designed on purpose as to create wall of chaos for the US/IL adversaries, but to some degree also reflecting a true power split inside – across Iran.
—
* assuming there are only two major rival blocks, but it could be the case there are even 3-5x such effective centers antagonistic or separate agenda wielding enough to mix up the picture so profoundly to simplistic analysis tools..
Does the US even have “thousands of missiles to aim at Iran”? Is this mostly a bluff?
World oil demand set for first annual decline since 2020, IEA says
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/10/iea-world-oil-demand-declines-iran-war.html
China has stopped Helium exports on account of escalating US-Iran tensions. Negative for global chip makers outside of China.
https://x.com/JoshiEien/status/2075824533635056034/photo/1
Don’t confuse tanker exodus with production recovery.
Gulf exports are rising because stranded ships are finally leaving.
Production remains down 7.1 mb/d
Only 1 tanker entered versus roughly 50 normally.
The export bounce is temporary.
The shut-ins are not.
What is the biggest mistake I think the market is making? Confusing exports for production: surge in exports from vessel exodus while production remains down 7.1MM Bbl/d. The last of the ships have left = TEMPORARY imbalance vs. 1 ship entered (vs. 50 normal) = ENDURING shut-ins.
https://x.com/ericnuttall/status/2075612763825578185/photo/1
thankers are exiting? oh boy.
The emergency buffer is mostly gone.
1. IEA members have released 276 of the 400 million barrels committed since March 11.
2. Another 37 million from the US SPR is already locked in through August, shock or no shock.
3. Over 100 million barrels of the original commitment have no fixed release date at all.
The safety valve most of the market is pricing in already fired.
https://x.com/jackprandelli/status/2075876245770752188/photo/1
so 2026 will be sort of normal in the west.
Probably not….at this pace. Buckle up buttercup.
Good points!
Interesting point!
Zerohedge has an article on the helium cutoff by China
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/china-shuts-helium-valve-qatar-outage-deepens-global-supply-squeeze
China produces only a fraction of the helium it consumes and imports roughly 85 percent or more of its requirements, according to reporting by Reuters, with the Associated Press places China’s domestic production at no more than ~ 15 percent of its needs. This suggests the ban is principally an effort to conserve helium for domestic industry rather than a measure capable, by itself, of depriving foreign buyers of large quantities. It also implies that Beijing expects the present shortage to persist. . .
Chinese companies have increasingly acted as intermediaries – importing some Russian helium and re-exporting volumes to overseas markets, including Europe. The ban could therefore remove more internationally traded material than China’s domestic production figures alone would suggest. . .
China’s exposure to Qatar is not accidental. In February 2025, QatarEnergy signed a 20-year agreement to deliver 100 million cubic feet of high-purity helium annually to China. It was the first direct, long-term helium supply agreement between Qatar and a Chinese buyer.
The new ban therefore raises an important question: Is China merely stopping helium produced domestically, or is it also preventing imported Qatari, Russian and other foreign-origin helium from being resold abroad?
https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/token-revolt-goes-mainstream-palo-alto-ceo-demands-90-ai-price-collapse-meta-and-openai-reach
The Token Revolt Goes Mainstream: Palo Alto CEO Demands 90% AI Price Drop
90% Or Bust
Arora wants token costs at roughly one-fifth of current levels within the next 12 months, and down 90% by the year after that. Arora joins a growing list of executives – Karp most loudly among them – calling out runaway token costs, and that the bill shock is already pushing corporate buyers toward cheaper open-weight alternatives, including Chinese models that are rapidly closing the capability gap with the American labs.
Yes, it would be nice to have a ballpark number for this US vs China AI domain cost structure. Surely, there would be two major components for it, chiefly the speculative premium-rush as the largest component of such elevated price and then the lesser one ~natural price/cost structure diff. between these two countries within the ~same (AI) sector.
People just want to elevate themselves into that proverbial bln. club in short span of yrs while the over-all novelty mania lasts, .. and then go for the next (gig)thing. Rinse and repeat.
What is most interesting is that there are still new further innings of this top-rat race, while ” resource limit advocates ” were / are preaching instant doom for decades.
So, what’s next?
Perhaps the next one will be related to defense/armament ( also meant internally as in totalitarian control or for directly manning neo-feudal fiefdoms of the elite ).
Hence after this drones era rush, new gigafactories for ” AI-solider ” robots anybody?
I’m sending back my Insta-Doom Flakes: the contents don’t match the picture on the box.
Especially the AI-enhanced one….
It is time for a more equal distribution of wealth. I suggest once every seven years the government take by tax half of all wealth and divide it equally to all the citizens. All people are equal only if they have equal wealth. The time has come to act.
The only problem is that the wealth of the rich is that it is disproportionately paper wealth. Over the long term, it likely will not be worth much.
True wealth is the ability to work and earn current wages. When there is clearly not enough food to go around, it seems like current wages will be what you need. You may need to work on a farm, for example.
We have created the fiction that it is possible to store up wealth as the debt of governments. This is a very temporary solution. It only works with a growing economy, made possible by a growing supply of resources. At some point, this situation collapses. Most of the paper wealth goes to zero.
Taking away half of the wealth of the rich doesn’t fix the underlying resource problem that tends to lead to wage and wealth disparity.
Land and shelter is wealth an equal distribution guaranteed for every person on earth no one should be allowed any more it should be equal in order to have a fair society.
The above paragraph will never happen because humans are naturally selfish and that is why a complete collapse with extinction of the human race is a more likely outcome.
No one owns factories? Or just a few shares apiece? No one owns houses, because that starts creating wealth disparities?
In collapse, perhaps we are all equal at close to 0.
Death, the Great Leveller……
The pursuit of equality is a delusion.
But it is desirable that inevitable inequality should not be pernicious, destructive, degrading and cruel.
Both that pursuit and that desire are delusions. Keynes legitimately ripped Marx a new one and Marx legitimately ripped Adam Smith a new one. National socialism tried to find a third, slightly less delusional approach and was wiped off the face of the Earth for not being maximally pernicious one way or the other.
MPP – Maximum Perniciousness Principle
I do not seek equality rather a muzzle on those who would be dictator. Currently a small group of rich people rule us. We do not want rulers.
felt i had to chip in on that bit of nonsense edpell—–
2 men, one is a boozer and gambler
the other a sensible level headed citizen…
give each of them £$1m
the boozer and gambler burns through his million and is broke in 2 years
the sensible citizen invests in a casino and a brewery—and is worth £$2m in 2 years.
Its called human nature.
Try thinking—it works if you practice hard enough….
You could’ve been a billionaire.
Not many people grasp that ” becoming a billionaire ” apart from inheritance option is basically the odds getting through several conseq. bottlenecks, probabilistic forecasting.
Say, there are many highly competent, talented people out there per every field of activity, but they could be short of proper specific social arena competencies or ” luck ” for the exact right timing at crucial fork/cross-roads within given time-space and developing situation.
Yes, Norman with his early grasp ( decades earlier to most ) of resource limits ( and effects on fin/economy ) could have easily made it towards the inner pool of just those few final contestants. That’s actually even worse feeling than being complete lifelong zero chance type of out-cast, getting so close..
Perhaps even applicable to more souls freq. this or other ” limits ” type of forums..
“I spent a lot of money on booze, birds and fast cars.
The rest I just squandered.”
– George Best
One of B the Honest Sorcerer’s clearest and best overview posts yet.
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/we-are-not-mining-with-renewable-104?
Thanks, that graph (inside article) nicely illustrates the recent discussion about the batt. world trying to move to the right of x-axis instead, meaning towards more avail. resources. Say away from the left axis domain of lithium, cobalt, nickel, .. in needed extra rock to final metal ratio – depletion situation of said commodities.
I agree that this is an excellent article. A person needs to read all of it.
Introduction:
There are no “renewables” without mining, an unsustainable practice turbocharged by the burning of fossil fuels. Yet, advocates of green technologies still believe that we could “somehow” electrify the recovery of critical minerals, and continue with civilization in a “business as usual but greener” manner. In reality, this could not be further from the truth.”
First Section: Saving the environment by destroying it.
. . . the term “building a mine” is actually an euphemism for environmental destruction on a truly industrial scale. First of all, opening a site for mineral extraction inevitably comes with destroying the green blanket of a living habitat. It also takes large harvesting machines to cut down all those trees and shrubs—all powered by diesel fuel, of course, as there are no power plugs nearby to do all this with electric chainsaws. Then a bunch of diesel guzzling bulldozers are brought on site to build roads leading to the would be mining site, followed by a fleet of trucks to haul all those logs away—again, by burning diesel—as the distance and load is usually far-far beyond what an electric semi could cover.
Later, regarding open pit mining:
You see electric dumper trucks are best utilized if they are loaded on the top of a hill, then driven down to the valley where these materials are used in making cement or get burned for power. The weight difference between the light ascent and heavy descent is enough to charge the batteries, and make the climb back to the mine a freebee. In an open pit, however, you have to drive down to a man-made canyon empty and climb back loaded with heavy ores — exactly the opposite what is needed to charge the batteries on the way. Besides, you are likely hundreds of miles away from the nearest power plant… This means that you would need to install huge solar panel and wind turbine arrays near the pit where the trucks would spend at least half of their useful time charging.
At the end:
Sorry, but no diesel, no coal. And no coal, means no steel. And with a drastically diminished steel production, it would be even harder to build more mines, railroads, processing plants, wind turbines, you name it. No steel, no manufacturing, no construction, no complex society either.
Once large scale coal and oil extraction will be gone, though, our descendants will be forced to return to burning charcoal to process the scrap metals left behind by us. This would not only mean rapid deforestation but also a drastic drop in metal production and recycling. As a result more than 90% of the materials currently in circulation today could be lost during the long descent of modernity, as we will most likely lack the capacity and energy needed to process them. Most of our metals will simply be left to rot and rust where they are. And as we have already depleted all easy to access high grade ores (amenable to artisan mining and smelting techniques) our descendants far into the future will eventually have nothing to extract from Earth—surely not with a pickax and ox-drawn carts. We will thus first see the emergence of a vibrant scavenger economy, salvaging and repurposing whatever they can as modernity starts to break down, then as we lose metallurgy due to the lack of energy to power it, our late descendants will witness the complete loss of all our present day modern technologies. Sure, they will have an odd blacksmith here and there, but that’s about it.
Art Berman has described the 4 pillars of our civilization being steel, fertilizer, cement and fertilizer all requiring oil, the gateway fossil fuel. I have heard estimates of about 1.5 billion left on the planet without fertilizer. It’s amazing how in the 1800’s we had 1 billion on the planet and look at our population today – over 8 billion. If anyone has more info about this, please share… thx!
Population always tends to outgrow its resources. Steel, cement and fertilizer help population grow.
The population of 1 billion about 1800 is precisely (actually 1798) when Malthus wrote about not having enough food for the huge number of people to feed.
I believe Art Berman’s four pillars of civilization are cement, steel, plastics, and ammonia. They all rest on fossil fuels. Ammonia is one type of fertilizer.
yes sorry meant plastics… thanks for the clarification on ammonia… need to do research on this… if you have any articles on fertilizer to share that would be great. And in 1798 the planet wasn’t so degraded as it is now…
That is why all these renewable arguments are just for show
Stupid article. It assumes all power comes from a power plant. The power to charge the battery’s can come from on site photovoltaic.
Which is not to say the photovoltaic or the mining can occur without oil. It can’t.
I find the all green technology are crap as stupid as green technologies will eliminate oil. Let competent engineers make decisions on real metrics and put this cultural war aside.
Well, competent engineers have spoken already.
Best to illustrate it on private-public transport sector:
If you are urbanite city dweller (& ~low income) then tram/trolley-buses and subway is your mobility, +folding ebike.
If you are sub-urbanite (& ~low income) you need rail service with direct transfer point dug under the destination megacity center (i.e. hop onto subway etc.), +folding ebike.
Otherwise you need EV or PHEV given the tasks/errands you have to perform as per varied daily/weekly/yr regiment. And yes you can partially charge it via renewables throughout the yr.
The entire scheme above requires by definition centralized electric grid, perhaps with some %renewables share but obviously NOT as the core contribution/dependency factor.
So, this has been know as ~optimal econ/energy path corridor for decades, and +/- govs and respective industries are slowly adjusting to such a world setting ( demands ).
It takes oil to maintain roads. They go downhill quickly, especially in areas with freezes in winter.
Yes, that’s a subplot of above, if lot of traffic is put on rail* ( ala JAP/CHN/.. ), then remaining resources last longer as per maintaining then the rural-local, hw, or city roads.. you mentioned.
Also per road maintenance, apart from freeze/hot/wet cycling the very important issue is the actual load on the surface, hence the less heavy cargo going through it ( forbidden / limits ) the better.
PS this has been all well-known for many decades, yet few societies implemented it ( to some degree at least )..
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* meaning rial full spectrum: local rail/commuters, underground city subway, long distant fast speed connecting all cities, and also specific point A-B bullet trains corridors ( replacing partly key hw and airline routes )..
“The power to charge the battery’s can come from on site photovoltaic”
It gets a brief mention.
“This means that you would need to install huge solar panel and wind turbine arrays near the pit”
The tone of the rest, doesn’t seem to put much faith in fully loaded electric trucks, getting up that big slope, but he did say it was ok in the lighter applications.
I would still agree with dog in saying it’s a stoopid article because as always B is just stimming on the rearranging of deck chairs because he doesn’t know how to do anything else but act like a former soccer mom cum empty nester and keep rearranging the furniture while not expecting different results. He’s dull as ditchwater as my rearranger of a mom would say.
My question about the Iran war is this. Why is it necessary to keep Iran from getting s nuclear bomb. Lots of countries gave them. India, Pakistan, North Korea, China, Israel. Why is Iran so much more dangerous and likely to use it than these other countries. Is there something the government knows that they are not telling hs. All counties know that using the bomb would result in self destruction and suicide. What evidence fo we have that Iran would use it?
Look at the situation (w. Iran) through optics of past decades and regime change policy action applied. Basically, regional outposts with some capacity and active inkling to cooperate ( and or fully ally ) with CHN/RU vector ala Iraq, Syria, Libya, .. were knocked out of Club-Med/ME wider region.
In similar vein, but located in other theater, the case of N.Korea a client state ( attack dog by some pundits ) of CHN/RU has demonstrably achieved such a high degree of destructive potential recently, that US faction doesn’t dare to approach – confront it directly, as retaliatory action against assets in Pacific would be very costly then.
Now, back to ME, where Iran was approaching this quasi “untouchable” status ala NKorea ( + energy export hub role ) as well, but this antagonistic status was deemed still as ” workable / reversible ” to forced regime change eventually as well. Hence TPTB tried that in such recent attack on Iran. Now the calculus has been revealed as erroneous as the propensity for more ~autonomous Iran is demonstrably stronger amongst its leadership and general pop than anticipated-evaluated or merely propagandized as of lately.
That is a good comparison to North Korea. A country with a long history of mistreatment will focus its efforts on, “How can I eventually retaliate?”
I think that the US has been guilty of long-term disruption of Iran’s ability to sell oil supplies at market prices since 1979 because of US sanctions against Iran. US sanctions were intended to keep the price that the US could sell its oil at sufficiently high. If there was less oil on the market, the hope was that market prices would be higher. But Iran’s economy would be hurt.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Iran-Oil-Production-through-2025.png
One idea why the US is concerned about Iran’s nuclear ability is that the US rightly assesses that Iran is very unhappy about this long-term mistreatment. If Iran had the nuclear bomb, it probably would not have the ability to send it long distance against the US. But it very well could use it against Israel. In fact, with 11 of them (which is the number of bombs available based on Iran’s upgraded uranium supply), Iran could pretty well wipe Israel off of the map. But why would the US protect Israel to that extent that it would go to war against Iran?
Another idea is that the US desperately needs to retain its hegemony. It needs to show its might against Iran, to show that it really is in charge. It needs an excuse to attack Iran. The idea that Iran is more dangerous seems to me to be mostly based on the fact that the US has treated it worse than other countries.
A third thought is that is that there has been some long-term on and off animosity between Israel and Persia. Persia is now Iran, more or less. This is documented in the Book of Esther. The fact that the war started near the time of the festival of Purim suggests this connection.
Purim and the Israel–Iran Conflict
https://icejusa.org/2026/02/27/purim-and-the-israel-iran-conflict/
According to Prof. Robert Pape, Iran needs nuclear weapons to cement their ascendency to regional power of the Middle East (now that they have Hormuz). Israel was competing for this role, however, after Hormuz, he sees Iran winning. Conflict will continue until all three parties agree to this (US, Israel and Iran). In addition, Iran wants all US military bases out of the region. He anticipates Israel will become like a Sparta state with nuclear weapons.
That makes sense. Even if Ira gets nuclear weapons I don’t see them using them against Israel as long as Israel has theirs. Iran knowns there would be a counterstrike.
“. Why is it necessary to keep Iran from getting s nuclear bomb. Lots of countries gave them. India, Pakistan, North Korea, China, Israel. ”
The majority of those countries are U.S/NATO/Israel allies.
The U.S. has wanted regime change in China since at least the 1960s. Socialists ,such as Israel Epstein, and many others were quite happy when China went Communist but the U.S. has seen China as a problem for a long time. Recently confirmed that both the Korean War and the Vietnam wars the U.S. engaged in shortly after the end of World War II were to some extent proxy wars with China.
This morning the report seems to be:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/guns-fall-silent-qatar-struggles-get-us-iran-back-negotiating-table
The guns have actually been silent in the Middle East overnight, after two days of deadly strikes between the United States and Iran, amid a general return to premarket open headlines of ‘peace imminent again’ as mediators desperately work to get diplomacy back on track.
There are many countries involved in this. Many of them need the situation to normalize for their economies to continue.
Zerohedge also reports:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/no-takers-nor-tankers
Daily crossings through the Strait of Hormuz increased substantially after the US and Iran announced a “peace” agreement in mid-June. However, those numbers have started to dwindle as the ceasefire—peacefire, shmeasefire—appears increasingly shaky. According to Bloomberg, the Joint Maritime Information Center said that traffic through the Strait remains at “reduced levels,” (around 24% of pre-war transit) even though US-assisted vessel transits have been largely uninhibited. . .
Reuters reports that “some war insurers advise shipowners to pause Hormuz voyages after attacks,” adding that “war insurance for ships inside the Gulf has already ticked higher towards 3% of a vessel’s value, up from 2% at the end of last week.” Meanwhile, quotes for coverage as high as 5% are still circulating. So even though the Strait is technically open, there don’t seem to be many takers—nor tankers.
IEA seems to now spin around its previous 2027 globo oil market over-supply narrative..
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-iran-escalation-could-threaten-2027-oil-market-surplus-iea-says-2026-07-10/
(no ads):
https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/07-10-2026-iea-warns-u-s-iran-escalation-could-upend-2027-oil-oversupply-outlook-343161543531873
PS although who knows – if hard(-er) recession was/is looming ahead..
IEA says
the escalation in hostilities from July 7 to 8 has clouded the outlook and could upend its projection that the market will turn to oversupply next year.
In some ways, oversupply of oil reminds me of the US jobs reports.
–There is an oversupply of oil because not many people can afford the high-priced end products (such as food transported long distance) that high-priced oil products provide.
–The jobs report says the unemployment rate is low because too many would-be workers have simply dropped out of the labor market. Wages are too low. Often government benefits are available instead. If more high-wage jobs were available, the number of jobs would be higher. We need low priced oil to get jobs that pay well.
[ Hideaway ] former ~regular here and other topical related sites has mentioned this reality obfuscating effect, when ( industrial civ ) efficiency gains are still somewhat occurring-increasing as of now, but the total energy intake ( available ) is already waning or going through some instability.
In other words a situation of competing mega-trends, hard to discern to most analyst, and as I’d add the clarity moment usually then comes delayed through some sort of bottleneck – suddenly like short time crisis appearing on the scene. In other words we* are still within gestation period on path towards such critical time-space node.
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2026/07/01/327-surplus-energy-economics/#comment-52403
PS sorry for multiple-site cross posting..
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* [we ] meant as observers and player of not yet fully crisis experiencing enclaves of the world
jobs report says the unemployment rate is low because too many would-be workers have simply dropped out of the labor market. Wages are too low.
Are you talking on America? Do you have a link for this? I’m seeing tons of available jobs. Atlanta seems to be thriving I don’t see it ….
There are a lot of contract workers in Programming jobs. There are a lot of workers driving Uber or something similar. I wonder whether employment of these individuals is being picked up properly.
If a person is slightly handicapped–for example, my older son is mildly autistic and cannot drive. He can do computer programming. In fact, he has a master’s degree in computer science. But he is over 40. At that age, he is supposed to be a manager. Autistic people make terrible managers, however. He has had programming jobs, but he has been laid off from them when the work was sent to China or India. His most recent programming job was as a contract worker, so he had no promise of continuing employment or unemployment insurance. Most of his programming experience is with Java, but that language is no longer as popular as it once was, adding to his difficulty.
My son cannot drive. Needless to say, he doesn’t own a car, and there is no public transportation nearby. There are jobs within walking distance that he could do. He might work as a dishwasher in a nearby restaurant, for example, if he could walk there. He would have a difficult time doing public-facing work, such as working as a cashier in a store. It would be a huge come-down to move from being a programmer to a dishwasher, which is a major issue in his mind.
His latest idea is trying to make a video game to sell online, using a game engine. If that works, perhaps he can make a little money selling it online. There might be other online jobs he could do, but it is hard to tell scams from serious opportunities.
So he is probably one of the people who is picked up as dropped out of the labor market. He lives with us, so his lack of income is not a huge problem.
Part of the big picture is that what the silent generation and back would call “an honest day’s work” has been devalued. The people who do it are demonized across the political spectrum and the work itself is seen as work that is necessary but not valuable.
What is deemed valuable by the market is basically whatever Elon Musk does.
I should probably add that there a probably a lot of reasons why workers fail to take the jobs available in the Atlanta area.
For many jobs, it is necessary to drive to the job. Owning a car is expensive. Many jobs don’t pay enough to cover the cost of a car, plus other living expenses. A person is, in many cases, better off looking for programs run by their states that will cover their expenses better. If a person needs child care to work, the wages likely need to be quite high to make the trade-off work.
I understand I have a few autistic people in my family. However what you are describing is anecdotal. There is a lot of cash sloshing around; your argument that oil can’t get expensive is right on a real value level but on a nominal level it will be high. There are jobs they just don’t pay enough in real value to survive. Most people don’t calculate all the cost. I work with people that drive 90 miles for work. That comes out to about $15,000 not to mention their time.
My fear is that we have come so far in collapse that we are “in the fog of war” and it is much worse than we can see. Government’s around the world are manipulating the truth. Trust is falling apart.
John, that’s very interesting personal account about the situation where people who commute ~90mi to their job site.. seem not to think/debate it more thoroughly still.
Around CEErealm it’s being referred to it in German term as ” pendler ” meaning long distance job commuting as well but here the wider internalized core meaning all way back to Latin is pendulum as in old wooden clock ” tic – toc ” mechanism.. , perhaps also hinting involuntary madness..
Yes, many lively-hoods are stretched well beyond rational limits, while %%segments of pop intentionally don’t work at all ( refuse even token job – miniscule few hrs daily – say keep park clean etc. ). It’s crazy..
What do you think is the real unemployment rate? I get the sense that this information is heavily suppressed.
No one seems to care about the unemployment rate. The focus is on who should hired first when an employer is deciding on who to hire, but not on whether there are enough jobs overall for job seekers.
One of the effects of education and
financial literacy in recent years is ,barring a perception of of discrimination based on identity , that most people blame themselves for their inability to get a job. The unemployment rate is irrelevant if unemployment is framed as a flaw in personal character by everyone.
Requiring “reliable transportation” in many cases is to discriminate against poor people, if it is an “office job”. It also has the benefit of screening out people who have disabilities, ensuring only a narrow range of people, people who “fit in” socially, apply.
.
Hiring is all about discrimination. Any employer that claims they do not discriminate are not telling the truth. Very often, they treat employment as an extension of their social circle, and treat hiring as if they are screening for a future friend or spouse, or a daughter-in-law.
I know that at the consulting firm I worked for, to some extent we looked for relatives of existing employees who seemed to be doing a good job. Or adult children of close friends of a senior consultant. As an experience actuary, I was hired by the head of the relatively new unit (at that time), based on the fact that he knew me and my work because we had worked together earlier, each with different employers.
The view was that it was difficult to judge who would work out from biographies and interviews. In a way, we were a big family. The firm at that time was employee owned.
“Now the
13:33 Russian side has allowed the uh supply lines, the logistic traffic, the trains
13:40 and the roads from Jes across the border to Lav to remain open. They must close.
13:48 If they don’t close, then the seriousness of the escalation from the NATO side is not being addressed by the
13:55 general staff. The general staff know how to address this. Sergey Lavrov knows how to report why it’s necessary.
14:04 The Kremlin refuses to date. . . .
So yes, it it’s essentially uh a a war which the US can profit from as
16:31 it tightens its imperial protectorate of Europe and collects. And that’s what Trump advertises with every tweet at
16:39 every hour of the day. He keeps collecting money from uh the far-flung dominions and servants and vassels of
16:49 his empire. He dresses like an an emperor and he dresses Washington like an imperial capital and he’ll have more
16:57 and more triumphs of the Roman kind if he can. So he’s winning. That’s what he
17:04 thinks. . . . And until now uh the Russia Ukraine war can go on forever.
17:18 And that’s [why it will go on forever. ”?
Helmer in multiple appearances says Russia failed to break the Cuba blockade after promising to do so, painting Russia as unreliable, having only delivered one tanker. However, I’ve read elsewhere that Cuba denied additional tankers, which could have happened due to threats or political pressure by the USA; there are different factions in Cuba. Knowing what really happened there would be helpful background in assessing Helmer’s reliability as a reporter. Currently I think of him as something of a concern troll (that’s a term, not my invention).
This commenter points out that today, Iran hit three American allies, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PimBWoGHEOM
The Day The War Changed – It’s No Longer U.S. Versus Iran
According to the video, up until today, Iran has been hitting US bases in retaliation for US attacks. Today, the US dropped out of hitting Iran, perhaps because of the funeral celebration, but we don’t know.
Kuwait and Bahrain seem to have attacked Iran today. Iran retaliated by hitting their ports, instead of their oil and gas infrastructure. Attacking ports takes out all exports, not just oil. Adding more countries makes this a wider war. The commenter calls it more of a Gulf War now.
Last year some people said AI 2027. AI takeover by 2027.
The same folks are now saying AI 2040.
https://blog.aifutures.org/p/ai-2040-plan-a
Like some cults who endlessly changed the date Jesus was supposed to return, these folks are also into changing the date of the AI domination.
Well, looks like AGI takeover is not something we have to worry about for now, I guess.
AI will not be as smart as humans, by 2027. Now the hope is that they will become as smart as humans by 2040. The author says,
” It would have happened much sooner (in 2030, to be precise) if not for decisive action on the part of the US and Chinese governments.”
I hear you, but the wider ~PO discussion over the previous decades also made several very wrong ( pre-mature ) timing boundary calls..
It seems to me we are into really ~big continuous plateau, be it of bumpiness sort of inherit profile, perhaps stretching to ~2050+ of quasi BAU in many aspects of our lives at the minimum. Something, frankly unimaginable for me personally around 2000s oily-energy related debates then.
Besides many already talked about other sub-sectors, and trends, e.g. say the way how the bigwigs are now as of lately pushing large battery units for the grid, based chiefly on plentiful sodium and aluminum potential out there ( at ~low cost ), .. , means that some combo of renewables, grid batt storage hubs, NPPs, natgas and coal, .. would keep this civ edition afloat way longer..
They are producing +20M passenger EVs y/y, now the semi-trucks are ready ( for US and beyond ), apart from partial phev bus/trolleys (high occupancy) and myriad of such schemes for which the industrial base – capacity now exists, not R&D toyz anymore.
Obviously, nothing guaranteed, and jockeying for controlling globo position could drive this entire circus into a ditch pretty quickly anytime.
Alpine salami piece-meal announcement method or
rather bratwurst for the choler voles ?
So, the VW corp just updated the few dayz old news about deleting ~100k of its employment force ( 4x factories or more ) by admitting few minutes ago to also cut almost half of the model line up in production.. eh.
https://eu.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/foreign/2026/07/09/drastic-lineup-capacity-cuts-planned-at-vw/90867394007/
https://www.motor1.com/news/801179/vw-group-reduce-lineup-in-half/
PS glad never supported this shy..+e with my hard earned rupees lol
rupees?
Kidding, I expect.
SKK korunas…
MG localized inside the EUR corral since Q1/2009..
[ And Jr. /= MG ]
It was evidently just stand-in for any currency on hand, mindless joke, no pun intended at all.
Hopefully, nobody ( say Ravi ) got offended..
According to the first link:
Europe’s top carmaker said the model lineup would be gradually cut by up to half and concentrated on the most attractive market segments, adding that production capacity would be reduced further to 9 million vehicles per year.
Sources have said CEO Oliver Blume plans to cut up to 100,000 jobs and close four German factories, which drew massive worker protests across Volkswagen’s German sites on Thursday.
The second link adds,
The number of available options for the surviving models will be cut by up to 75 percent.
Soon, there will be two or three model cars, available in one or two colors.
[ ” Ver are da kahs? ” ]
Arnold Schwarzanegger asking enthusiastically in 2006 before saddling the Tesla Roadster for very first time!
(true story as ~always):
https://www.autoweek.com/car-life/classic-cars/a35673804/tesla-before-it-was-tesla/
Oh, but they can change to making bombs and drones, surely?
Only if they can find the right raw materials to work with. If rare earth minerals are required, for example, and they don’t have them, it would be a problem. But Ukraine seems to be making bombs and drones, so perhaps they can.
Better margins until you get hit with an Oreshnik.
It’s official…Donnie’s Egomaniacal sickness knows no bounds…
Palm Beach International Airport became President Donald J. Trump International Airport on Thursday, but while the signage may change, the official airport code will not for another month.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a law in March to officially change the airport name in honor of President Trump, and the Federal Aviation Administration issued guidance that the name will change on July 9.
However, the three letter airport code that passengers most often see — which is currently PBI — will not change to DJT until Aug. 18.
That means that for 40 days, the FAA locational identifier and the International Civil Aviation Organization will be using a different airport code for pilots, air traffic controllers and aviation operations, DJT, than passengers will be using for ticketing and flight information, PBI.
There are plenty enablers to feed his delusions of grandeur…
Unfortunately, this is the way the self-organizing system seems to work. Having a person’s name on an airport is an ego thing, nothing more. It won’t buy food, if food is scarce. It isn’t a pension plan. In some sense, it is not really worth much.
When there are enough goods and services to go around, the distribution seems to be a whole lot more even. We are seeing more evidence that the economy is near limits.
The man is lead by his ego. That’s how he was trick into a unwarranted surprise, illegal assassination strike on Iran.
That was my point. They know what buttons to push to control his decisions. The PM of Japan even publicly stated such and one has to be very careful on how one approaches him in a conversation…he can not tolerate some lines of communication
The world seems to be changing in terrifying ways. First, I saw this article about the US cutting off relations with Spain, yesterday.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-tells-bessent-halt-us-trade-spain-calls-madrid-wasted-cause
During a NATO summit in Ankara, President Trump instructed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to cut off trade with Spain over defense spending.
“I didn’t speak to Spain. Spain is a wasted cause. We don’t want to do any trade business with Spain anymore,” Trump told reporters.
“By the way, I’d like you to cut it off,” the president said, turning to Bessent, who replied: “Yes, sir.”
Trump then added, “Take it immediately. Don’t even talk to them. They’re hopeless. They’re bad people … They make so much money with us, and we’re going to make sure they make a lot less.”
Edit by Gail This video is two months old. Please disregard it!”
Then someone sent me a link to this video, which sounds at least somewhat possible, considering the current situation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=712Nk4lYGKQ
All Hell Breaks Loose as US Banned from All Allied Bases
It alleges that a whole list of what used to be allies are cutting off the US in different ways.
How can this current Administration not be held responsible for all the dysfunction going on all fronts? Really now, I distinctly recall Donnie stating back on February 28th his surprise attack/assassination on the Iran nation was a “little excursion” or something to that and last a few weeks at most.
Doing so without any regard to the democratic process or our trusted alliance in the world today.
No one is being held accountable for this failure. And it is a total failure that is a historic milestone in world affairs. On par to anything I can think of in my 70 years.
All I see is much chatter on YouTube videos to keep the viewer informed… pitiful …
PS.. see viewers comments to “mushroom” Iran and no moral compass on the act itself. We (USA and Israel)can have it and use it but you can’t …
The human hoard when it’s gone from the face of the Earth will bring a big sigh of relief to the cosmos.
What’s the frequency Kenneth?
You want explanations and the DA has the answers.
The issue is overshoot and collapse. Not enough to go around. Any leader would somehow come to this same result, I am afraid.
Trump’s adversaries whether political or kinetic share a common tactical rule if probably nothing else. Never stop your adversary when he is making catastrophic blunders. Political domination is their primary motive every thing else is far far down the list..
The other issue is soon as Trump is removed from power the decisions are theirs and despite their narrative to the contrary they share many of the exact same obligations.
Unfortunately Trump’s discusting rudeness towards a respected nation is likely to be regarded as a focus of the problem. As well as the hubris surrounding him when thr real issue is exceptionalism allowing a total abandonment of diplomacy.. Anger and violent rhetoric was noted in Biden also.
Hidden polite exceptionalism where policy does the same thing expressed by Trump’s crude comments is perhaps even worse.
The other team gets the ball soon and Trump’s catastrophic decisions will not be the basis of deep contemplation but a golden opportunity for their particular brand of exceptionalism.
If people were trained in understanding and identifying manipulative behavior perhaps they could desire something different. They do not. They like the opera they like their anger and they like their exceptionalism. The greatest offense is not to be opposition in the Opera but to reject the premise of exceptionalism.
Trump was not created to allow contemplation of the exceptionalism that lies within all of us. He exists to allow the power that his anti thesis will wield nd that is left intentionally undefined. Exactly like Trump’s thesis of not Biden was left undefinef.When it is defined it is based on hubris not actual issues. Hubris that Trump intentionally creates because that is his job as nemesis. Just like the hubris we witness around Spain where being in conflict with Trump allows no questions to be asked about the behavior of the neo liberal socialists of western Europe and soon their USA counterparts.. Of course Trump vomits in public. You don’t stand for vomit do you? The opera stars play their roles. The horrible perpetrator Trump. The noble victim Spain. It’s better than Peter and the wolf.
Maybe it is best if we think about what is happening as a play. Trump has a role to play. He supposedly has so much power that he can make statements offending pretty much anyone.
If the US really can’t afford to buy goods from Spain, what better excuse for not buying them than that Spain has done something to offend Trump. Previously, the plan was high tariffs.
This sounds a whole lot like Europe deciding they did not want oil from Russia. Of course, the real situation was that they could not afford oil from Russia. Also, a war against Russia would add a whole lot of jobs, for laid-off European workers (such as from the VW layoffs).
There should be a scene in the play in which the El Cid character slaps Trump with a wet fish and then says:
“No more paella or wine from the cella!
Rotate the rotters out of Rotan! [the naval station!
Remove the morons from Morón [the air base]!
Expel the embassy, close the consulates, and deport the diplomats as persona non grata!
Remember the Maine!
We Spaniacs are not going to take this lying down.”
That would be very entertaining.
The piece of theater we’ve just witnessed looks like Trump wants to insult the Europeans into kicking the US out of NATO.
“This sounds a whole lot like Europe deciding they did not want oil from Russia. Of course, the real situation was that they could not afford oil from Russia.”
Are they not now paying more than they were to Russia?
“Also, a war against Russia would add a whole lot of jobs, for laid-off European workers (such as from the VW layoffs).”
When you say jobs, I read death, as they will be sent to the front.
I was thinking the same thing Fitz.
In terms of consolidation of powers for the gang at the helm currently you could be right. For them to re-arrange the incoming economic slump trajectory vs CHN/RoW then into domestic mil. build-up effort would be quasi logical near-mid term solution as numerous times tried in the past on ~similar occasion.
If only someone had foreseen what they would do to themselves(again).
“We have liberated Europe from fascism, but they will never forgive us for it”
Marshal Zhukov
Nice quote, Fritz!
Here’s 2 minutes on Marshall Zhukov:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/3f_hOhjmhYo
I thought the goal was to remove the middlemen to Russian oil, the Russian government and its taxes, by turning Russia into a vassal state. None of this will make FF from Russia cheap, but it would make it slightly less expensive and it would give them leverage to try to turn China into a vassal state.
The solution to not-enough-to-go-around seems to be imperialism. This has been America’s strategy since the 1970s. It seems to be Europe’s as well, now since they all seem in agreement that “P utin is bad” meaning, “we need to take control of the resources in Russia”.
I also believe – open to correction as I have’t followed it closely – that the EU is planning to buy cheap agricultural produce from the poor South, esp N. Africa, thereby undercutting its smaller farmers in Spain, etc, (the big ones already use cheap Moroccan labour) and obviously not touching US products. Sour grapes?
But you are correct, much of this is theatrical, although Shakespeare it ain’t…..
Good point!
Don’t forget that Shakespeare being too lowbrow was a common complaint up in the boxes. There’s another soliloquy coming right up.
What about the Hand doing Stoppard doing Shakespeare?
“the natural condition is one of insurmountable obstacles on the road to imminent disaster. strangely enough it all works out in the end… it’s a mystery.”
https://youtu.be/jTQurAEmt64
(1min)
The fiction is necessary because it’s a political fiction. Imperial political fictions are the breeding grounds for imperial vs anti-imperialist political false dialectics. Meanwhile, the non-political truth is singular: it’s a false dialectic seeking political cover for peak oil collapse. Many of us, from the earliest days, knew that Collapse would happen under cover of war because that’s how civilizational collapses always find political cover.
My reply here on the fiction was meant as a reply to Ernie’s question about Italian having nuclear weapons.
Drill (transfer) pumps are good too, that you hook up to your battery powered drill.
Well, given Spain was to large degree in recent decades basically an DE/FR econ colony – appendage, one could assume from domestic performance of these two countries lately, that Spain won’t be performing much differently as of now. Hence why Don aimed at them as the ~weakest link ( while ESP daring to refuse/conditionality for US airforce bases coop ) on the continent as of now..
Sorry. Please disregard the above video. It is two months old.
Not at all, it fits ( as ongoing trends ) into today’s narrative and upto date events very well.
Also likely very connected to this NATO membership interplay is the RU issued warning they are ( finally ) upgrading the classification of this conflict with UKR up from regional skirmish as into some sort of quasi ~war proper~ cat.
So, in practical terms, if said ongoing arm supplies and provided W- sourced intel stream won’t be seized in upcoming short time window – RU will likely start to nibble at some NATO proper sites in short order, although obviously again going in easy, e.g. storage facilities say in PL/Baltica not high command Brussels in the first round.
Obviously, the spill effect of it could be also in world seas naval engagement and also heftier support to various ~edgy non state players across key global choke-points.
That’s why that apparent Don’s and EUR-folk nervousness of recent days..
OK, but the US is still flying missions near Iran. Where from?
I don’t know. The UK doesn’t seem to be on the list. I am sure that there are other places not on the list.
Several prime-candidate locations:
– The Erdo-state
– al-Sharaa’s Syria
– some of the ex Soviet -stans
– Greece
– Romania
( + air tankers )
..
.
I found out the video is an old video. I likely isn’t right now.
~Latest info on the Don x Sanchez timid cat fight:
https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-he-ordered-cutting-off-all-trade-with-spain-2026-07-08/
Summary:
-Trump previously made similar threat in March, but US-Spain trade continued normally
-Spain says EU customs rules bar singling out individual member states
-PM Sanchez says Spain is reliable NATO ally and US trade ties ‘very strong’
-US Treasury, Commerce Department, USTR to give Trump ‘menu’ of Spanish products to embargo, official says
-Major US investors enthusiastic about Spain
They all made meaningless statements, hoping that they could get around the problem, whilst still being involved in one way or another. Iran wasn’t fooled.
You only need to look at the latest nato statement to know.
From Britian going east, all of them are involved, except Spain who have been consistent from the start and even got extra gas supplies from Algeria because of it. I also doubt Turkey have any active involvement, as they have a shared boarder and Edragon rarely shows his hand, let alone when it’s potentially unpredictable. Why get involved when you can let others fight it out, which allows you to deal with the Kurds, when everyone is looking elsewhere.
Jordan has been saying hello to various Iranian ordnance today, so must have been some activity from there to trigger the incoming.
Tonight or tomorrow might see an escalation, as the funeral has reached Mashhad, were they will be layed to rest(2.3m Iraqis turned out to the first of 3 Iraqi stops) and the drone footage from Mashhad is something to behold(must be topping 20m overall by now). They are all calling for vengeance.
Here’s the occupant of the tiny little coffin
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/245825/VIDEO-Coffin-of-Leader-s-granddaughter-at-Tehran-s-Mosalla
On the other side we see projection, nothing but projection.
“They’re bad people. And, uh, frankly, I don’t wanna waste my time with them. Now, I’ll let our wonderful negotiators keep talking if they want, but I don’t see it. Uh, I don’t like these people, you know that?.. I don’t want to deal with them anymore. They’re scum. You know what scum is? They’re scum. They’re sick people. They’re led by sick people. And, uh, they’re vicious, violent people. And if they had a nuclear weapon, they’d use it. As far as I’m concerned, it’s over.”
I hope, when he said “you know what scrum is?” someone asked if he understood what a mirror is.
The enduring and ephemeral sanctity of the female infant. The raw power of the Islamic martyr complex means you have no compunction about turning your own granddaughter into a sitting duck. And to think we all used to think granny had a martyr complex.
Trump’s just mad because it was a thousand times bigger than the Charlie Kirk funeral he threw.
Blaming the victim!?
Much?
Tell me please. Explain it to me like I am a six year old. Where was the necessity in blowing up the Ayatollah with his family and dozens of officials and advisors and any who just happened to be within a 500-meter radius of the blast? And where was the necessity to put a cherry on the top by blowing up as girls’ primary school.
What difference did that make to the US and Israeli strategic situation? Do you all feel safer now? Has evil been defeated?
Now that it is perfectly fine to kill non-combatants wholesale for whatever political or military purposes are deemed expedient, I guess we all better just duck and cover and pray our loved ones are not to close to round zero when the big bombs go off.
Who cares what the Iranians think or act or what capital they make out of their martyrs? Why the f__k should anyone condemn the mourning of innocent dead kids. That totally misses the point that we “civilized” Westerners have a prohibition against killing innocent children.
I worry a lot more about us than I do about them. We are acting like cannibals planning a barbecue and asking, “Who shall we invite over for dinner?” And we are winding ourselves up, or letting the Hand wind us up, for yet another mass bloodletting on the scales of WW1 and 2.
We need to repent and recognize our sins, before we are justly punished by far higher powers than the Ayatollahs. We certainly don’t need to cheerlead for anything Trump and Bibi have done to innocent civilians, although I am sure you personally are not doing that.
Moreover, under international humanitarian law, intentionally killing civilians during an armed conflict is strictly prohibited and constitutes a war crime. And furthermore, when Trump and Bibi bombed the Ayatollah, there was no armed conflict going on between the US/Israel and Iran. Official sources admit that the conflict broke as a result of the strikes on February 28.
Don’t be vague!
Send Trump and Bibi to the Hague!
Not that I expect to ever see that happen.
Every utterance is either hypocrisy, or projection. That’s how corporate administration works.
“Since entering office, the second Trump administration has embraced power politics. Openly flouting international law, the administration has repeatedly used force in international affairs. It has committed illegal extrajudicial murders in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific, conducted an illegal military intervention in Venezuela, and directed an illegal attack against Iran. The Trump administration is facilitating genocide in Gaza.”
https://fpif.org/applying-the-imperial-rule-in-the-strait-of-hormuz/
The more they bleat, the surer you can be that Iran is hurting them badly.
Who wants to talk about an ongoing, live streamed, genocide of children?
Just scroll through the first page below and when you get to the bottom, notice how many pages there are(anyone still no sure, just watch some).
https://archivegenocide.com/
I’m not blaming Khameini for getting killed even though he had repeatedly refused the advice of his security to leave for a secure location as the situation was escalating over the previous weeks and months. I’m blaming him for allowing his granddaughter and other civilian family to be anywhere close to him. If that doesn’t make any ethical sense to you Tim then I don’t know what to tell you. He didn’t take personal responsibility for his actions. The 12 day war on Iran itself started with surprise assassination strikes on military leadership! Israel had been on a rampage of decapitation strikes since then. His security told him to move multiple times and he refused and not only got his security and leadership killed but civilian family too, Tim, because the propaganda coup was more important.
That’s the level of political theater on which Fitz and you and me are thus far discussing events, anyway. In reality I assume that the Hand insisted that such a quid pro quo propaganda coup was necessary to the anti-Zionist, anti-imperialist DA that will set Iran free, and I think we can now see why. It’s no coincidence that the absurd, not-real Minab School double-tap happened at exactly the same time, which ‘intelligence failure’ presumably has the Hand’s fingerprints on it, too.
Points taken, Reante. And despite my old-fashioned sentimentality and outrage at violence against civilians, I do see the point that the school could have been deliberately bombed IN ORDER to make ordinary people in Iran and everywhere else angry or enraged. Or to desensitize us and soften us all up and grease the slope down to the next holocaust, apocalypse, or armageddon to come.
As I see it, the problem with the Hand theory is that it can explain every event after the fact by simply ascribing it to the behind the scenes choreography of the Hand. And by explaining everything. Whatever may happen or not happen, one can say that the Hand planned it that way.
I blame Franklin D. Roosevelt for htis! He is reported to have said: “In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way.”
By claiming to explain everything, this sort of theory explains nothing. In this it seems a lot like Henry Makow’s theory that everything is being run behind the scenes by the Chabad in order to orchestrate World War III and the rule of the Antichrist. They are all in on it, says Henry, Look at their masonic handshakes!
Henry thinks Trump, Bibi, Putin, and Xi were all part of the Chabad. He also thought the Ayatollah was a member too. But now that the Ayatollah is no longer with us, he no longer speaks of that. It is hard to imagine Chabad blowing up their own, so for the theory to hold, we must assume the old guy and his family were spirited away before the bombing and are now living on a kibbutz in Judea or perhaps in Golder’s Green under an assumed identity. Neat!
In any case, the slope has been greased, and now Trump’s family are no longer safe, nor are Putin’s, Zelensky’s, Netanyahu’s or Xi’s, and nor are yours or mine. If someone powerful enough doesn’t like you and can get away with it, any of us can be literally toast any time. We should all definitely keep well away from everybody’s grandchildren, just to be on the safe side.
That’s one more thing I’m going to be worrying about all the time now in addition to global warming and an asteroid falling on my head. I had thought we were covered by a comprehensive insurance policy that promised we wouldn’t get bombed or blown to bits by somebody’s military unless there was an actual war declared. But clearly, I was wrong there.
Tim
“As I see it, the problem with the Hand theory is that it can explain every event after the fact by simply ascribing it to the behind the scenes choreography of the Hand. And by explaining everything. Whatever may happen or not happen, one can say that the Hand planned it that way.”
Actually, the DA employs foresight with 20/30 vision, watches events unfold, and then with hindsight corrects that vision to 20/20.
Welcome to god mode buddy. Cultural physics.
Foresight says that in order for the Hand to chase Collapse MPP, Phase 2 of the DA requires that Zionism must disappear and Iran must be free. So the BNS opens with a simultaneous Zionist strategic double clownshow: Israel kills the moderate Khameini and his civilian family and the US performs a ambush double-tap — the lowest of war tactics — on schoolgirls. That war strategy is the opposite of “hearts and minds.”
See the patterns. The DA is all the same not-real clownshow playbook, starting with the plandemic. Running the globalist duopoly off of the cliff by forcing them into carrying out one gruesome clownshow after another. And everyone eats it up because they no longer know what realism is anymore. What reality is.
Welcome to the postmodern age.
Civilization is serious, serious business. It cannot run on clownshows. It’s never run on clownshows. So when structural Collapse of civilization arrives, what do we suddenly get? A series of clownshows. Why? So that structural Collapse can find political cover since everyone knows that civilization can’t run on a series of clownshows and expect not to collapse.
It’s dreadful, these days, to be a sane Iranian, an opponent of the barbarous and utterly corrupt Shia regime, and to face the fact that those you hoped might liberate you – the West in general, and the US in particular – are themselves corrupt, barbaric murderers, nothing more.
Spain discovered the worlds largest silver mine. Which made them super rich. Countries like Portugal used their currency. Then, they started to “run out” of silver and paid Columbus to go searching for more resources. (resource curse).
( They / we ) all played-fiddled on the great world stage for a a brief silly peak moment.. Let’s recall the Scandinavians-Swedes for a topical picture slide from the family album:
they pillaged half of Europe once, and now can’t cross the street in their metro ares not getting instantly mobbed by new ” welcoming culture ” guests, hah.
Full stop .
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/oil-tanker-traffic-through-hormuz-near-standstill-attacks-strain-iran-truce-2026-07-09
This is unfortunately not surprising, given the amount of fighting going on.
Oil markets declined on the news. The disconnect between financial markets and physical reality is growing. I think financial markets will run into reality sooner (weeks to a couple months, max) rather than later. Financial markets will have to be shut down / trading stopped, or pricing will blow out, or contracts will cease to be honored for delivery. An alternative explanation is that demand destruction eclipsed supply disruption, but I think not, because national SPRs and all forms of storage shrunk, if public data is to be believed.
https://oilprice.com/
We disconnected from physical reality in 2020, and were really only attached before then by a thread.
Sure, in general, but with commodities, no. There is a physical forcing function / truth that manifests: delivery either happens or not.
Lol. Oil markets didn’t decline on the news as if you reading news you don’t like causes oil markets to decline. Oil markets declined for all of the reasons. Technical analysis would call call it a retracement from the last few days. Others like myself would once again suggest the prevailing economic undertow is at play due to Hubbert true global peak oil happening in 2018.
I agree that this is a major issue:
“Hubbert true global peak oil happening in 2018.”
Was it the US fracking boom after 2008 that made it seem things were going back to normal as it kept the global economy afloat? And if it weren’t for low interest rates, fracking wouldn’t have happened? So now that fracking is peaking and interest rates are going up, things will only get worse from here…
There was lots and lots of US debt added as well, in the boom after 2008. Somehow, with all of the debt, oil prices stayed up high from 2010 to the beginning of 2014. The high price of oil and low cost debt encouraged fracking. But by mid-2014, too much fracked oil was dumped on the world market, and oil prices fell.
High prices and low interest rates help a lot of industries, including oil.
And fracking would’ve never got up and running if the Dallas Fed didn’t indefinitely suspend mark to market accounting of fracking assets back in 2011 I believe. Which is fair game of course if one is glad that we got a very long undulating plateau out of it. Hard not to be in a way even reante must admit on the odd occasion like now lol.
.Gasoline supplies from Belarus to Russia by rail tripled…to over 181k metric tons. Exports of diesel in June rose by 1.5x to over 77k tons.”
Let’s put those volumes into perspective:
✳️ 50kbd of gasoline is actually more than we thought possible from Belarus. Prior to the Omsk plant going offline earlier this week, Russia was probably 100-150kbd short on gasoline, so that is a material amount, although it won’t solve the problem. Also, Omsk typically produced ~35kbd of gasoline, so the target moved for the moment.
✳️ 19kbd of diesel is not material to the Russian market. Prior to the drone campaign, Russia was producing 2mmbpd of diesel and exporting 1mmbpd. As of last year exports dropped to 845kbd, and now they will be cut off entirely. Completely different scales…
https://x.com/RusOilGasExpert/status/2075177491761639803
Belarus is much smaller than Russia. It is nice that it has been willing to help; total supply isn’t that great.
Just in .
Russia’s Saratov oil refinery has completely halted operations after a drone strike hit its only primary processing unit on July 9.
It’s one of the oldest refineries in the country and a key fuel source for the Volga region and it’s already the second time this year it’s been knocked offline, after a similar attack in May forced a shutdown until mid June.
This comes just a day after Ukrainian drones hit the Omsk refinery, Russia’s largest by volume, roughly 2,500 km from the border previously considered out of reach.
👀Between the 2 strikes, every one of Russia’s top 10 refineries has now been hit since the start of the year.
The country’s already dealing with fuel shortages, long lines at gas stations, and has started importing gasoline from India.
https://open.substack.com/pub/themerchantsnews/p/when-did-the-war-move-inside-the?r=tf0g2&utm_medium=ios
Well, for an ” intel guy ” hope-believing he could possibly have the same superb relationship with Merkel as in the previous Chancellor Schroeder was a very bad mistake, followed up by ~trusting Don to some extent.. Hence now the quite dear sequence of payment time!
Vlad kind of dropped the ball there evidently..
( yes I know he playz for time )
Vlad and Gerhard as kids both played in the (legacy) ruins of the post WWII respective arenas – hence the shared true manly bondage and outlook on the world.
While, Merkel was a half religious teenage freak co-opted by W. Germany’s state services; and Don disco parlor champagne tiger of the 1970-80s.. as you can see very different pedigree – profiles comparatively speaking!
I knew the AI ‘revolution’ would fail after I saw the composition of Meta/Facebook’s think tank, which had 44 total, out of these
22 of them were Chinese, and 11 ‘Americans’, out of which 5 of them were obviously Chinese.
The only notable non-Asian of the lot was Yann LeCun, who has since left the project to strike on his own.
Other major centers of AI would be the same – a roundeye front person and mostly Chinese and other Asians in the research centers , offscreen.
I personally think the world loses nothing after lobotomizing all these strivers from Asia, who add nothing but garbage to technology.
I have posted old footage from Asia. They ruled the continent for millennia and that’s all they were capable of. and they will gladly go back to such instances after Fossil Fuel ends.
Asians are masters of rote learning, which make them score well in test to be able to crowd out other peoples, but very useless in real life as seen by the macnhu dynasty’s abysmal response against British incursion in 1839.
Asians are incapable of crossing the barrier to the new frontier. The only voyager from Asia who is somewhat known is Zheng He, who was castrated because he was born a Muslim (i.e. non-Chinese to begin with). After Zheng died nobody ventured out of there again.
Trusting them to bring the AI revolution was as wise as trying to breed a herd of cattle with a steer.
I agree that Chinese have a tradition of rewarding experience over innovative thought. This approach has a place, but it tends to miss things that are truly changing. It would likely miss new opportunities.
Lol kulm saying the AI revolution is failing because his tiresome cosplaying on race is true.
AI is the very definition of rote learning so by your logic that rote Chinese are not the ones to bring AI to the world makes no sense.seems like a low cost match made in heaven to me.
“sounds like a low cost match made in heaven to me.”
I think that this is what is happening.
Good times are up for the world’s so-called middle class.
Mass consumption only led to needless consumption of resources for no good purposes.
As the true elites retreat to places like Patagonia, large swathes of world will be abandoned and their living conditions will return to , say, 1800s, ending mass consumption, and the countryside of the developed world will once look like Millet’s paintings, beautiful to look at and horrible to work at.
=
The consumption of the world’s unnecessariats is what brought the world to this condition so it will end so there would be a chance to rebuild something and reach a higher plate of existence for the worthy.
In the 1800s, we had horses to help with the farm work. We won’t have enough of them to make a difference going forward. I am afraid the conditions will be worse.
Millet’s paintings show the past: the soil is depleted, the high temperatures kill the plants.
No large scale monoculture agriculture with high yields. Rather diversity because of the resilience when some crops fail.
Finally we have indisputable proof of the validity of germ theory! Ha Ha!
By the way, I never use chorine bleach in the sink, under the rim or round the bowl, because I have one of those combined air blower-equipped septic tanks that has its own microbiome.
I wonder if global oil consumption is dropping like a rock and Iran stuff is just to keep the price spiked.
And it could be possible we’re running into peak oil supply and demand at nearly the exact same time. This sorta reminds me what gail has been saying in her work and that weird “Hills group report” that came five years or so ago. That said everyone was looking the wrong way and peak supply would choke off the economy causes peak demand and the price would go way down bankrupting the industry. Instead of shooting up and increasing production via unconventional and such. etc. (in a nutshell).
To the first paragraph argument, quite possibly so, but that meant within Gail’s article last map-pic of new global domains – spheres – blocks of influence reality.. So, the energy / oilz “surplus” would be then #1 divided according to spheres of influence and then #2 distributed willy-nilly inside such respective spheres given other than market only preferences, i.e. arbitrary energy control policies enacted ( say US vs CHN zones decision-making ); obviously partly masked early on as PR only dev-help assistance program on the most abandoned places to be jettisoned away etc.
I’m thinking the same thing but I hope we are wrong if we are right then time is short
The time ahead is worrying!
The AI bubble seems to show more signs of difficulties. An article earlier today was called:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/south-korea-falls-bear-market-memory-euphoria-fizzles
A later article today article says,
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/korea-tumbles-goldman-tells-clients-rotate-china-ai-value-chain
As Korea Tumbles, Goldman Tells Clients To Rotate To “China AI Value Chain”
An AI rotation trade is accelerating in Asia as investors pull money from the chipmakers that powered this year’s rally (read the couple of names that are responsible for most of the Kospi’s gains this year) and hunt for cheaper ways to play the technology boom (in China).
The shift pushed the Kospi Index to a technical bear market overnight, after gains that made it the world’s best-performing major benchmark in 2026. . .
As Bloomberg notes, Korea’s outsized reliance on the chipmakers has left it especially vulnerable when sentiment turns. . .
Which brings us to the latest report from Goldman’s thematics team, which after riding the Korea trade for much of the past year, recommends that clients rotate from the Korea AI trade to its Chinese equivalent.
Arguably, this does not affect US AI, but it does not sound like a good omen.
Google searches for “Medical Emergency” growing exponentially
https://trends.google.com/explore?q=medical%2520emergency&date=all&geo=US
That is close to five times as much as a year ago.
Interesting. It has been quite stable since 2004 when data begins. I wonder what explains this. “Emergency center” seasrch term shows the same hockey-stick uptrend.
https://trends.google.com/explore?q=medical%2520emergency%2Cemergency%2520medical%2520center%2Cemergency%2520center&date=all&geo=US
Supply chain
https://trends.google.com/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=supply%2520chain
Same hockey stick for “Refrigerator truck”. (they rent those when the morgues overflow)
https://trends.google.com/explore?q=refrigerator%2520truck&date=all&geo=US
Who knows why … Americans gobble up drugs like they are candy. Middle age women are taking everything they can to look young. And then there is the fat pills and I think statins might be bad for you. It is best to let nature take control eat well and exercise. Magic pills from pharmaceutical companies are danger.
Placebo = sugar pill.
Candy = flavored and textured sugar pill (well it once was but now more commonly HFCS pill as that is both sweeter and cheaper than sugar).
Considering dopamine release some would classify sugar as a drug.
So
Americans gobble up drugs like they are placebos.
and
Americans gobble up sugar like it was a drug.
Any questions? (not snark but a reference to the old egg-in-a-frying-pan PSA)
Fighting over-industrialized ” poison ” candy / sugars :
( for decades )
– dark choco of higher %% content only
– agave sugar free syrup
– fructose from eating common berries and whole fruits
– real ( ~dark ) honey
– if above occasionally fails use at least the sugar cane var. ( and less of it anyway )
..
.
I understand that pharmaceutical makers are some of the biggest advertisers on television today. They advertise very heavily. People compare all the treatments they are getting with there friends.
There is a belief that if you pay more for something, it must be better. There is a huge tendency by US doctors to overtreat for every illness or perceived problem. They look for a patented pharmaceutical product to sell for anything that might be wrong. Then they get an office visit to go along with writing or rewriting the prescription. Scans are suggested for anything that seems to be wrong, and then incidental findings are followed up on endlessly.
I get my healthcare from Kaiser, because I know that Kaiser doctors are paid to keep patients well, not to get more treatment from them. I am currently in a Medicare Advantage plan. This plan is unbelievably inexpensive compared to what many other people who are 65+ pay. If I tell people that I get my care from Kaiser, they look at me like I am crazy. The majority of the Kaiser Advantage patients are from low income households.
And even at Kaiser, I find myself turning down recommended treatments. The doctors there are required to provide treatments that private doctors do.
There is a WSJ opinion article today called Why Do Democrats Hate Medicare Advantage?
It’s the best program in the entire U.S. healthcare system, including even employer-sponsored plans.
In traditional Medicare, Mr. Halvorson [former President of Kaiser] wrote, “20% percent of diabetes patients routinely get ulcers and 20% of those ulcers turn into amputations.” In Medicare Advantage, the number of amputations is a tiny fraction of that. “Far too many low income people who are not on Medicare Advantage plans go blind and then they stay blind for life,” he added. The key to preventing blindness in diabetics is controlling blood sugar levels. Medicare Advantage plans have strong incentives to do that. Traditional Medicare doctors don’t.
Well, nevertheless it’s somewhat advisable to get basic screening.
And then pop up regularly the deficient key nutrients per said report. It’s the usual suspects namely: zinc, magnesium, selenium, .. , add Vit C/D, and few others micro nutrients .. based on your avg diet, climate exposure, activities ( way you tend to deplete them ) etc.
Obviously all as per separate items ( packages ) only, and as naturally sourced ( vs mere chemical derivatives ) as possible..
I sometimes get small cravings, which I accept as my boby telling me something is missing. Bananas are probably the most regular and obvious, but sometimes with a blue steak all I want with it is a plate full of broccoli. I like broccoli, but not that much and guess it’s iron that’s missing, but don’t know. I’m into grapefruit at the moment, but that might just be the weather.
Your other post mentioning honey. Agree, real honey is so much healthier, flavoursome and nowhere near as sweet. If you haven’t tried, vanilla fir(black fir) is very good, although thyme honey(Greek) is my personal favourite.
I guess this could have been posted previously, as it gets updated y/y..
Here graph and debate on peaked obesity levels within the US.
They discuss it from supposedly the key forcing via “GLP-1” weight loss injection angle, but for our purposes perhaps could reveal some energy ( food )flow / real income related mega-trends instead.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/712157/glp-usage-reaches-new-high.aspx
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth
Lets notice, that mid 2010s obesity growth pattern shaping almost into
[ cubic growth ] followed by the peak about 2022 yr threshold..
Many possible culprits behind it, likely leveraged intake of junk meat ( ~gmo fed animals ) etc.
PS meant as addendum to a post about [ 2000s -> onwards to our present ] ~PO outlook into our times.. now in ~moderation pile..
…wait, this mean the economy is growing!?!
Well, given the obesity rate spike that particular (sub-)segment (of food/agribiz) was apparently growing, mind you as US consists or %%large recent immigrant pop, where the early generations seek after previously deemed “living-large” unobtaniums, i.e. larger meat servings and several per week freq. at that etc. This obviously mellows down further down theirs follow-up younger generations, and or social status escalator effect. Hence, people then re-adjust to other type ( more healthy ) type of foods and or rather often enter the cringe-loop of saving up for large expenses ala the core household RE investment, hence trim their food expenses etc.
I re-call the tail end era of my-old folks WWI – WWII ( and throughout depression ) generation aka parents of my parents, and they were very into any meat stuff as ~luxury now to be desirable-affordable thing since very late 1940s ( me witnessing this “psycho-cultural angle” legacy phenomenon few decades later obviously ).
At the end, the article says,
“While brand-name GLP-1s continue to significantly lead the marketplace, the lower cost of compounded or custom-mixed varieties is fueling a shift away from brand-name choices and is likely making GLP-1s available to broader sectors of the population. That broader availability — though still limited — may be what’s driving GLP-1 usage higher overall.”
And, GLP-1s became available to some Medicare patients, as of July 1, 2026. This is only a temporary program until December 31, 2027.
https://www.cms.gov/medicare/coverage/prescription-drug-coverage/medicare-glp-1-bridge
In answer to a FAQ, the site says
Eligible beneficiaries will have a $50 copay. Eligible GLP-1 drugs furnished under the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge are provided outside of the Part D benefit payment flow and coverage. This means that the Part D deductible will not apply, no part of the $50 copay counts towards the beneficiary’s TrOOP costs, and there is no low-income subsidy (LIS) provided for LIS beneficiaries.
Trump has been talking again about grabbing Greenland off Denmark. And that would make some sense. It would also be interesting.
The war against Iran on behalf of Israel is just boring and pointless. The USA has already lost that one. So why do it again? Boring.
The USA is still involved in the Ukraine war and Trump seems to be getting more interested in that again, but the USA has no real strategic interest there, and the USA is just being pointless and boring.
The USA has its primary strategic interest in the Western Hemisphere. The attack on Venezuela was just boring. Cuba? Boring.
Now Greenland, that is the real target. And it would be totally interesting. Is the USA bored of being boring? Maybe. Will it man up and stop being boring? Who knows?
Who is afraid of Denmark? Who is afraid of Denmark?
https://apnews.com/article/greenland-denmark-security-trump-arctic-north-nato-95f6d033dc24938a8cb61f463175e6d7
Why Trump covets Greenland
… Here’s why Trump covets Greenland, and why it is strategically important in the Arctic:
Trump says America needs Greenland for security
Trump has mulled territorial expansion via Greenland, Canada and Venezuela during his second term. But of the three, he comes back to Greenland most often, arguing that it is necessary for U.S. security to be in control of the Arctic island.
“Greenland is very important to the United States, but it’s not important to Denmark,” Trump said Wednesday during a NATO summit. “We need it for protection of the world, not just the United States.”
Earlier in his term, he would not rule out taking the island by military force to secure its “right, title and ownership,” though the president has since said he’s taken military options off the table.
Trump says the U.S. needs Greenland to deter threats from Russia and China, and has repeatedly made false claims of Chinese and Russian military forces lurking off the island’s coastline.
Greenland’s location is key
Greenland sits off the northeastern coast of Canada, with more than two-thirds of its territory lying within the Arctic Circle. That has made it crucial to the defense of North America since World War II, when the U.S. occupied Greenland to ensure it didn’t fall into the hands of Nazi Germany and to protect crucial North Atlantic shipping lanes.
Following the Cold War, the Arctic was largely an area of international cooperation. But climate change is thinning the Arctic ice, promising to create a northwest passage for international trade and reigniting competition with Russia, China and other countries over access to the region’s mineral resources.
Security threats prompt European worries
In 2018, China declared itself a “near-Arctic state” in an effort to gain more influence in the region. China has also announced plans to build a “Polar Silk Road” as part of its global Belt and Road Initiative, which has created economic links with countries around the world.
Then-U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo rejected China’s move, saying: “Do we want the Arctic Ocean to transform into a new South China Sea, fraught with militarization and competing territorial claims?”
Meanwhile, Russia has sought to assert its influence over wide areas of the Arctic in competition with the U.S., Canada, Denmark and Norway. Moscow has also sought to boost its military presence in the polar region, home to its Northern Fleet and a site where the Soviet Union tested nuclear weapons. Russian military officials have said that the site is ready for resuming the tests, if necessary.
Russia’s military has been restoring old Soviet infrastructure in the Arctic and building new facilities. Since 2014, the Russian military has opened several military bases in the Arctic and worked on reconstructing airfields.
European leaders’ concerns have been heightened since Russia launched a war in Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.
Last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted that Moscow is worried about NATO’s activities in the Arctic and will respond by strengthening the capability of its armed forces there. But he said that Moscow was holding the door open to broader international cooperation in the region.
US military presence in Greenland already supports missile operations
The U.S. Department of Defense operates the remote Pituffik Space Base in northwestern Greenland, which was built after the U.S. and Denmark signed the Defense of Greenland Treaty in 1951. It supports missile warning, missile defense and space surveillance operations for the U.S. and NATO.
Greenland also guards part of what is known as the GIUK (Greenland, Iceland, United Kingdom) Gap, where NATO monitors Russian naval movements in the North Atlantic.
Thomas Crosbie, an associate professor of military operations at the Royal Danish Defense College, said that an American takeover wouldn’t improve upon Washington’s current security strategy.
“The United States will gain no advantage if its flag is flying in Nuuk (Greenland’s capital) versus the Greenlandic flag,” he told The Associated Press. “There’s no benefits to them because they already enjoy all of the advantages they want.
“If there’s any specific security access that they want to improve American security, they’ll be given it as a matter of course, as a trusted ally. So this has nothing to do with improving national security for the United States.”
Denmark’s parliament approved a bill last year to allow U.S. military bases on Danish soil. It widened a previous military agreement, made in 2023 with the Biden administration, where U.S. troops had broad access to Danish air bases in the Scandinavian country.
Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, in a response to lawmakers’ questions, wrote last summer that Denmark would be able to terminate the agreement if the U.S. tries to annex all or part of Greenland.
Mineral wealth attracts Western powers
Greenland is also a rich source of the so-called rare earth minerals that are a key component of cellphones, computers, batteries and other high-tech gadgets that are expected to power the world’s economy in the coming decades.
That has attracted the interest of the U.S. and other Western powers as they try to ease China’s dominance of the market for these critical minerals.
Development of Greenland’s mineral resources is challenging because of the island’s harsh climate, while strict environmental controls have proved an additional hurdle for potential investors.
I expect that the amount of fuel required to take ore back to the US will be an issue. The cost of moving workers up to Greenland would be another challenge. But we need to extract whatever energy-related resources we can, if the economy is to go on.
Yes, the deal structures along nicely depending on the over-all goals of the intended operation, we shall see..
For one thing, if the thrust of action is about [ Rear Earths ] mining ( not mil. bases / install as such ) – it will be interesting to watch how they approach it..
1/ Firstly focus on the most pressing issue-minerals say for aeronautics, i.e. likely low volume mine/re-processing output but extreme rarity of such elements for the first yrs of operations there
2/ Or they focus on some multi-purpose giant operation doing it all, processing all sorts of rare and more common minerals around the targeted deposit sites; the second option sounds too much sense ala CHN way of things so likely NOT attempted by US for now, lol
As Mirror posted, this issue is likely getting assigned high priority, Don taking it on pedestal of key wants again, hence I’d venture to count on the option 1/ mentioned above for now..
Also, we could not deny the specific scenario – it’s a cloak effort of some sorts, and should the US need some very specific stuff for say next gen energy reactors or such, then this over-all Greenland deal is more about just grabbing – securing the area as fast as possible forNOW, while on the ground dev. coming later there.. say throughout next decade or so.. ; perhaps to obfuscate the other major players it has been decided to going such energy production route and its implication ( allow for slow decay / re-prioritization of legacy oil biz angle ).. Yes highly speculative narrative say 1-5% chance only for now..
Is the USA bored of being boring? Maybe. Will it man up and stop being boring? Who knows?
My sediments precisely–as I like to say when drinking home-brewed beer. But what can I do?
Tim, here’s one for ya with Mick Jones band B.A.D. titled “Rush”
Big hit of the early 1990s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGqA5itVzns&list=RDGGqA5itVzns&start_radio=1
If I had my time again
I would do it all the same
And not change a single thing
Even when I was to blame
For the heartache and the pain
That I caused throughout my years
How I learned to be a man
Through the laughter and the tears
[Chorus]
Situation no win
Rush for a change of atmosphere
I can’t go on, so I give in
Gotta get myself right outta here
[Verse 2]
Now I’m fully grown
And I know where it’s at
Somehow I stayed thin
While the other guys got fat
All the chances that I’ve blown
And the times that I’ve been down
I didn’t get too high
Kept my feet on the ground
Boy, weren’t we the lucky ones ..
Oil transit not popular.
It’s a trend!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=k9AskjMeo5U&pp=ygUWdWtyYWluZSBkcm9uZXMgaW4gZ3VsZg%3D%3D
Oh, dear!
“New Drone Footage Shows Strikes on Russian ‘Shadow Fleet'”
Ukraine military released drone footage striking eight tankers from Russia’s “shadow fleet” delivering fuel to occupied Crimea overnight on July 7. The reported attack comes a day after Kyiv military targeted two other sanctioned vessels in the same area.
This attack took place in the sea of Azov. It is considered internal waters not international. (Hague ruling just this year).
Ukraine is now demonstrating their full military capabilities in the black sea. IMO this means the black sea like Hormuz is effectively closed to transit. This is not surprising to me. From almost the beginning of the war the new war the new UAV warfare dominated. Starting with the sinking of the Moskva the best and most heavily armed ship going to the bottom. Basically Russias black sea fleet has been Neutralized. If military ships with upgraded defenses can not transit without risk obviously commercial ships are sitting ducks. This was a significant attack right ships being hit much greater damage than all the damage to ships on Hormuz IMO.
Apparently this represents a progression. With Russias land based trefonrrys largely severely damaged the shadow fleet represents mopping up. These are easy soft targets that could have been attacked at any point on the war.
20 percent of Russias oil exits the black sea. This leaves the baltic as the main sea port representing about half of Russias exports. A bigger question is where will the refined product imports dock. The UK has been issuing statements their navy needs to board and confiscate shadow fleet ships.
As usual the dilemma is who has targets. Russia is faced with the decision of whether to attack Ukraine exports much of them grain on response.
But there’s a catch. The recent 2026 Hague ruling that sea of azov are internal waters of Russia and Ukraine means blowing up ships there is no big deal. Most of the Russian ships transit through sea of azov but the Ukraine ships ports are on the black sea. International waters
Once again the rules are Russia can be hit but not hit back or the war becomes international .
Most probably almost all Kazakhstans oil which exits through the black sea will also cease export. No insurance.
https://astanatimes.com/2026/04/kazakhstan-not-winning-from-hormuz-crisis-as-capacity-hits-limit-expert-says/
The Sea of Azov is north of the Black Sea, within Russia. This is no doubt why it is not considered international water.
It is hard to believe all of this damage is being done. It is a sad situation for Russia, I am certain.
A little recount of current events
Nordstream
Hormuz
Azov
Such terrible bad luck these conflicts occuring next to energy choke points.
Nobody says nothing.
But the Opera is stunning..
People we are told are intelligence professionals sing the Opera.
Saudi east west pipeline.
Low hanging fruit.
“The recent 2026 Hague ruling that sea of azov are internal waters of Russia and Ukraine”
Do you think Russia is bound by the rulings of the Hague?
They cannot attack a Ukraine “grain” ship.
Russian oil tanker being grabbed right and left.
Really?
Current events (Ukraine as well as SOH) along with boarding and capturing russian oil tankers, show that there is no international law being followed anywhere. It is basically who can bring to bear greater destruction through asymmetric or direct military assets.
Perhaps Russia should board all grain ships, kidnap them and then sell the grain, funnel it into a “trust” held for the Ukrainian people.
Russia attacking Ukrainian ships in black sea would violate both Montreux and Bucharest conventions with high probability of international response
Ukraine can blow up Russian ships in dea of azov without any convention violation. Additionally Ukraine exports are grains only a rogue nation would destroy those whereas energy assets are considered strategic and fair game.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/8/why-have-us-iran-strikes-resumed-and-what-does-it-mean-for-peace-talks
Why have US-Iran strikes resumed and what does it mean for peace?
Both sides have accused each other of violating the memorandum of understanding signed in June.
The United States launched dozens of strikes on Iran early on Wednesday in what it said was retaliation for Tehran’s attacks on commercial ships in the highly contested Strait of Hormuz, sparking widespread fears of the renewal of all-out war in the Middle East.
After the US attacks, President Donald Trump told reporters at a NATO summit in Ankara, Turkiye, that he thinks the memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Iran is “over”. While he “might” allow peace talks to continue for now, he said, he believed they were a “waste of time”. In an angry tirade, he referred to the Iran leadership as “scum”.
This supposedly started the shooting:
Iran, CENTCOM said, had attacked three vessels: the Marshall Islands-flagged M/T Al Rekayyat, Saudi Arabia-flagged M/T Wedyan, and Liberian-flagged M/T Cyprus Prosperity, which are thought to have been sailing close to the coast of Oman.
Iran has directed all shipping to follow its map for a “safe route” through the strait, which takes ships much closer to its own coast and marks a section of Omani territorial waters as a “restricted zone”. Local television reported that the ships had ignored warnings to change direction from Iranian forces.
Apparently there is some disagreement about the meaning of article 5 mou not NATO). “Shall facilitate safe passage”.
Mou kinda forgot to specify whether it was “it’s ours now bud” or ‘back to before”.
MOU was not pay as you go but agree as you go.
But it bought time.
I’m s little surprised. I wouldn’t thing the new Ukrainian manufactured anti shahed Drones and operators would be in place in the gulf nations yet. It’s only been three months since they started to arrive. One thing they have is cash though and cash makes things happen. Even though these new anti drones are simplistic for AD (but effective ) wethey still take time. If I was a gulf monarch I would want a buttload in place before hostilities restarted based on recent learning experiences
It’s almost ho hum if the gulf infrastructure gets destroyed at this point. Economic consequences are baked in the cake regardless. The reality is Hormuz is closed it never opened not really. Does it matter if gulf infrastructure gets blown to hell. Doomster smorgasbord burnout.
Sad!
Last prepper post, finer points about stockpiling.
1) Oil drum is out, too much work as you have to go from station to canister to drum to canister to tank. I store in canisters, I have many (50+) from when I was buying black market diesel and also of course I get 20+ a year from oil and coolant purchases. do not throw them away.
2) previous post not wrong, finding ways to fill canisters at station most efficient, but this woman (I asked her for 60 liters the other night, and she does not trust me no more) comes out and watches what I do. So it is station to tank to canister (at home) to tank.
3) getting fuel out of tank not easy. need car to be elevated. found solution with car next to drainage ditch in front of house, and canister in ditch. It gives me the 40-45 cm I need.
4) tube for moving gasoline needs to be a bit stiff so it can be trusted to the bottom of tank, but also of decent diameter. I did not want to sacrifice a garden hose so I use an hydraulic line from a tractor. Inner diameter 6mm and it takes forever. Use an old garden hose, needs to be 2.5 m long in my setup
5) sucking gasoline is awful. Beer making supplies stores sell systems with a simple pump incorporated. See if you can buy one of those.
That’s it. You need a funnel with a stick or piece of hose to go from canister to tank, to keep open the internal cap. I have at this point a full tank, 80 liters in canisters, 12 liters of gasoline for chainsaws. I will have 120 in canisters tomorrow. Wait for the shift to change before going back to station to minimize problems. Also black market is there, finally got offer of 5 liters for 1000 rubles, 200 a liter, is 63 at pump. Do not plan to use. But having two full tanks in garage is sufficient for me.
Thanks for the update, I gather the rather largish appropriation for chainsaws is not for emergency (tree over road) but chiefly cord wood / heating purposes, right ? May I ask you do you have a RU wood boiler – heating system or something Scandinavian made for biomass or else.. ~dreg oil/natgas ?
The guys complain about not getting work. We need to clear some pastures so we are also stockpiling firewood for winter. I have a central wood stove that goes through two floors, it heats the entire house. Water is heated electrically. Neighbors have those you mention.
Awesome drb you da man. The suddenly third world man.
Get a cheap electric transfer pump with 3/”4 male threads you can hook the garden hoses up to. Or I you have a flatbed truck you should have room to strap a second tank to the chassis and put a splitter with a two way valve in the filling line to the stock tank so that you can pretend to be filling the stock tank and then just gravity drain the dummy tank or make it easily removable.
Diesel is basically unrestricted at this station, although today they ran out. I can get 200 liters in a single go. Going with a truck will do me no good. But hey, I found my method and I am good.
If we transfer our minds back in time to say mid-late 2000s or early next decade around 2012, some authors hanging around ~PO sites hypothesized correctly then about future resource / sphere of influence wars, although perhaps on a bit wider front by today, meaning not yet situation: 2026. The time flew past so fast, it’s incredible..
What other parts of scaffolding go under by mid 2030 though? Hard to tell, I guess the homefront likely will have to change profoundly vs today’s mellow situation, meaning the onset of ~real hunger to wider %%segments of pop and obviously lack of proper full spectrum energy saturation there, with some forcing on achievable pop longevity.
On techno gadgetry supposedly to alleviate somewhat the energy pinch, we are stuck to ~same tech gen as by early mid 2010s, meaning same HV Teslas+ and CHN offshoots, the new non rare e. / lithium batteries although solved on principle and early working prototypes here today, they are still ~3-5yrs away from true mass production.
Moreover, the (grid) generator / power plant issue does NOT seem leapfrogging ahead to upper boundary domains yet, state budgets are instead suffocating under gargantuan idiotic mil. expenditures, although you never know, and perhaps general science/tech off shoot of mil. industry could bring about true novelty approach in energy sector as well.. that would present yet another unusual ” last moment ” ladder step up towards further human domain existence.
Thanks. I was talking gasoline, but I did neglect the fact that you didn’t want to use a garden hose which in my experience you’d have to sacrifice by cutting in order to fit it through the metal port that the pump nozzle goes into because it’s a tight fit, but splicer barbs or hose repair connectors can salvage cut hoses. Just thinking for a more long term solution in situations like in some parts of Asia early on where they were only allowing vehicle dispensing and not dispensing I to canisters.
Way to get it done man.
Storing gasoline has more fire risk than diesel. Scrub tanks no fun.
Thanks, but not relevant. It’s not so hot here and I can pick perfect canisters.
Safety is always relevant and especially when offering storage strategies for storing large quantities of flammable liquids.
How about this 10-dollar sucker to do your sucking for you!
Since it can even pump uphill, getting a few gallons of gas out of a tank by pumping it downhill should be simplicity itself.
I’ve got one of those for changing tranny and rear differential fluids etc. They would be extremely tiresome to use at the scale of gallons and the inlet hose is nowhere near stiff enough for running down into the tank as drb mentioned.
If drb wants to stretch to something battery powered, this one looks very nice. even has an auto shut-off.
I do all my filling of agricultural machinery manually, but I think I might get one of these for convenience.
China stopped buying to give Trump a chance to implement the ridiculous ” agree as you go” MOU? Worth a try I suppose but so much for that?
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-further-eases-fuel-export-curbs-july-sources-say-2026-07-08/
What a opera!
Hard to bicycle when it’s above 100 and your old.
Learn to swim was optimistic.
You need water to swim.
Doomster smorgasbord.
Placing my bet for megadoom.
It’s discovered there is no data center tooth fairy at the same time as energy consumption reduction.
China is holding off on buying because it is well-stocked up with oil it bought dirt cheap via the sanctions -based backdoor bailouts, just like I’m holding off on buying more diesel because I’m stocked up on diesel I bought for $3 a gallon. Since the Yuan is pegged to the dollar and may well remain pegged to the dollar, it has enough oil stocks to sit it out til oil crashes and oil is relatively cheaper in Yuan for a period of time while almost every other currency gets slammed and can’t compete with the Yuan in the oil market.
It is self-evident that if we can narrate it with play by play and color commentary then Collapse can be intelligently designed just before it happens organically.
Reuters’s article says:
China lifts fuel export curbs for July, sources say
China has lifted refined fuel export restrictions for the rest of July and allowed a private refiner to resume shipments after a four-month halt, trade sources said on Wednesday, as the world’s biggest refiner returns towards normal after disruptions from the Iran war.
The resumption of refined fuel exports from one of Asia’s largest exporters comes after the interim peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, and is expected to ease prices for transportation fuels in a region where consumers have been grappling with inflation since Beijing curbed shipments to secure domestic supplies in March.
We do’t know the order of the various things that happened. I am wondering if Trump found out about this release and was worried it would further lower oil prices. He needed to do something to raise oil prices, so cooking up an excuse to bomb Iran was the way to go.
https://charleshughsmith.substack.com/p/without-subsidies-ai-is-unaffordable
Without Subsidies, AI Is Unaffordable
Let’s pull all this into an undeniable conclusion: AI is based on massively subsidizing users’ costs.
The major AI platforms and vendors are subsidizing corporate and individual users in the hopes that they can achieve AI sector dominance –and the pricing power that comes with it–via the network effect, the dominance generated by having the majority of users bound by habit or dependence to your platform or tools.
Gail: This reminds me of hegemony and its power.
Meanwhile, back in the real world of costs, AI Costs More Than The People It Replaced (forbes.com)(via Tom D.)
It turns out that experienced human workers doing the work right in the first place is cheaper than having AI run a probability distribution process that needs vetting and corrections. And remember, AI isn’t actually “intelligent,” it’s just a probability distribution using natural language.
Gail: Two examples: Today, I tried to use Amazons’s AI to stop a “Subscribe and Save” I had signed up for. There seemed to be no way to do it. Eventually, I found a real world person to talk to.
Yesterday, I wanted to deal with the electricity company in the area. I first talked to a human who said I needed to make the change I wanted online. She transferred me to the telephone AI line. The telephone AI system quickly led me to where I needed to put in my PIN number, which I didn’t have. So I ended calling back the real world person. She said, “Oh yes, I can set up the PIN number for you.” (I had previously tried the website and had issues with it.)
As management guru Peter Drucker observed, enterprises don’t have profits, they have costs. Purveyors of AI platforms and tools have costs, and so do their customers. Those costs are currently being funded by investors, who are in effect subsidizing the AI companies’ “free” giveaways of horrendously costly “tokens” in a manic, desperate attempt to grab the brass ring of network effect dominance before their cash runs out.
Later:
AI is built on the systemic theft of copyrighted content. Last month alone, AI scrapers gorged on 246,000 pages from my Of Two Minds server, and hundreds of thousands of pages of my copyrighted works on my mirror site and other sites posting my work.
This is legal, but is it moral? Nobody asks such questions because the important thing is to avoid saddling AI users with the real costs. So if all those content creators get nothing–in effect, subsidizing both AI companies and the users of their AI platforms and tools–well, so what, because if it’s legal, it’s moral, and what’s legal is for sale.
“How The Guardian Sells Imperialism To Progressives”?
https://www.donotpanic.news/p/how-the-guardian-sells-imperialism?hide_intro_popup=true
Question: who controls the Western “Press”, maybe the same as the “Finance” and “”Entertainment Industry”…
The self-organizing system controls the “Western Press.” It tends to present stories that advertisers would like to hear, and that will send the prices of stocks upward.
The “Entertainment Industry” is presented as being able to make people “happy,” which is the new substitute for religion. Lots has been written about it. Video Games have replaced in person entertainment because there is not enough fuel for very many people to get together in person.
Yep, and they all push their “agenda”…to make a buck
Not many years ago, the emergency rooms wanted to get their on-line ratings up from users. They asked patients to start rating their pain scores, on a scale of one to five. This pain rating system started being used elsewhere, also, to improve ratings.
Indirectly, because of this, emergency rooms and others started prescribing more opioids, starting the opioid crisis. It wasn’t until people figured out that opioids are terribly addicting that this silliness stopped.
Or more likely property values are too high to buy or use real estate in a desirable for that purpose. The few places that exist for people to gather in large numbers charge high prices to cover rent, and overhead, like security. Otherwise, the situation is like that in India and many u.s. “inner city” areas–people die at large human gatherings. As some newly married woman told me 11 years ago, “going out” in the u.s. is now a dangerous affair. To offset the high cost of human gatherings in the U.S., some “nightclubs” or “bars” are used as fronts for more profitable activity such as drug dealing or human trafficking.
We would have to make serious changes to replace computer games with in-person entertainment. People would have to dial back their expectations and not expect their spouses or family members to perform as well as professional entertainers or computer programs.
Mike
Same people who wrote the bible?
I’ll chew on that one…
Maybe the Bible can point to the spot where the final big bang occurs…looking more and more in the .land of milk and honey
Bible was written to get people to behave in the desired way to allow the Maximum Power Principle to work its magic.
People needed to somehow look out for others, (not just themselves), especially within their own family and their somewhat wider group of acquaintances. In the Old Testament, I do not think that the Ten Commandments were not written to apply universally. For example, a person should not kill anyone in his close-knit group. A person should not steal from anyone in his group.
But if there was not enough to go around, stealing from outside your group was OK. Going to war with other groups was fine.
The New Testament was written during the time of the Roman Empire. There were much better roads. People were exposed to wider groups than before. There was more energy per capita, thanks to the work of slaves. The message changed a little, but it still worked in the direction of the MPP. In fact, all religions I have run across seem to work in the direction of the MPP.
Religions take advantage of the fact that people can work together more effectively if they know each other and work together in a like-thinking group. But when resources per capita start getting stretched, and there is too much wage and wealth disparity, then conflict or war seems to be a solution.
“Spin” has become a way of life. Maybe, it always has been a way of life. It is related to propaganda, without people realizing it.
The article focuses on how the Guardian presents Israel’s continued attacks on Gaza:
If the Guardian had any integrity and wasn’t simply a soft mouthpiece for empire dressed in progressive clothing, the headline would read “Israel advances illegal annexation of West Bank.” It certainly would if they were writing about Russia, which is another clue about the intention here. Can you imagine the Guardian soft-balling it like this over Ukraine?
“Russian government figures seek to cement Crimea gains.”
Everything we read is an interpretation of what is going on. The interpretation varies with the writer.
It’s more interesting than that though. When we realize that what is going on with respect to Collapse is a management protocol, the interpreting gets a whole lot easier because the whole function of the management protocol is to greatly simplify the dynamics of complex Collapse, right? Control is simplification.
So, in turn, the interpreting is greatly simplified such that objectivity of interpretation can emerge and progressively chase real world confirmation.
Here’s another new nothing to see here, platformed echo of the language of the Non-Public Degrowth Agenda: Trump today saying that Iran is not about regime change, it’s about “denuclearization.” Denuclearization is the most important word according to DA theory. It is the be all end all of the DA. It has yet to be uttered in mainstream discourse that I’m aware until today. And it’s utterance by Trump is the ultimate irony and misdirection play. Same old playbook: the Hand needs to denuclearize the civilization before it’s too late, so it has King Lear cause a nuclear catastrophe as a result of claiming to try to denuclearize a country that doesn’t even have nuclear weapons such that the world realizes that humans can’t be trusted with nuclear technology, whether weaponry or power generation.
Denuclearization is now in the public consciousness and set to drastically expand in scope.
It also may be that the reason hostilities are being ramped up is to try to get oil prices higher. They had started falling too low, at least for some.
All of this is off and on. If we don’t like what is happening today, wait until tomorrow.
No doubt Gail. And above all the feathering is in service of keeping the barrel price out of the $50s is in the name of the fracking bubble (and tarsands). The fracking bubble: Last In First Out. And lo and behold we have new fracking production highs again, now that ‘all’ the tankers have been diverted to the USA, and American fracking is saving global production for the second time, only this time at a much more brief and smaller scale, like the second, post-peak shoulder in a head and shoulders top.
The only thing left to debate is whether the feathering is just the catastrophic intensification of feathering or the intra-BNS feathering. 🙂 Looks like we might find out pretty soon here now that the three suns appear to be aligning.
The cultist, Son of Sam sits down at a bar and orders a Bloody Mary. The musician Sun Ra sits down next to him and orders Absinthe. The military strategist, Sun Tzu sits down and what does he order?
Claude replied:
A Kamikaze.
The joke runs on matching each “Sun/Son” figure to a drink that fits their whole vibe:
Son of Sam (the killer) → a Bloody Mary — blood, murder.
Sun Ra (the cosmic, psychedelic jazz visionary who claimed to be from Saturn) → Absinthe — the hallucinatory “Green Fairy” beloved of bohemian artists.
Sun Tzu (the Art of War strategist) → a Kamikaze — a real cocktail (vodka, triple sec, lime) whose name is straight-up military.
🙂
Sonny Bono sits down and orders a Rocking Chair.
Sun Yat-sen would likely order a glass of premium Yunnan tea with ice and one of those fancy cocktail umbrellas. The founding father of the Republic of China was a well-documented teetotaler. If pressed to chose something alcoholic, he would likely go for a Goddess Highball (Vodka and Tie Guan Yin oolong cordial), an Osmanthus Oolong Punch (Rye whiskey, Benedictine, and oolong tea), or a Lapsang-infused sour.