Author Archives: Gail Tverberg

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.

Understanding Deglobalization: The Role of Diesel and Jet Fuel

Posted on February 2, 2026 by Gail Tverberg

While international trade grew as a percentage of GDP between the 1960s and 2008, it has been basically flat since then. Now the shortages of diesel and jet fuel are forcing the international trade percentage to start falling to a lower level. Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications, News Related Post | Tagged , | 1,347 Comments

2026: Expect a very uneven world economic downturn

Posted on December 31, 2025 by Gail Tverberg

The Maximum Power Principle strongly suggests that even as limits are hit, the world economy cannot be expected to collapse all at once. Instead, the most efficient producers of goods and services will be able to succeed as long as resources are available, while less efficient producers will tend to fall by the wayside. Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications, News Related Post | Tagged , , | 1,895 Comments

Too many promises; too few future physical goods

Posted on December 4, 2025 by Gail Tverberg

The world is filled with financial promises, including loans, pensions, and even the market value of stocks. So far, the system seems to be working, but in a finite world, it is hard to believe that the system will work indefinitely. Governments can create money simply by adding more promises, but they cannot create goods and services in a similar fashion. Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications, Planning for the Future | Tagged , , , | 1,375 Comments

A lack of very cheap oil is leading to debt problems

Posted on October 31, 2025 by Gail Tverberg

The economy needs a strong middle class to maintain the buying power needed to purchase goods such as vehicles, motorcycles, and new homes, to keep the price of oil up. Prices must be both high enough for producers and low enough for consumers. Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications, Introductory Post, PDFs Available | Tagged , , , , | 1,521 Comments

What has gone wrong with the economy? Can it be fixed?

Posted on October 6, 2025 by Gail Tverberg

I don’t believe that the situation is hopeless. At the end, I discuss where we are now, relative to historical patterns, and some reasons to be optimistic about the future. Continue reading →

Posted in Energy policy, Financial Implications, oil shortages | Tagged , , , | 1,621 Comments