Author Archives: Gail Tverberg

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.

China and US Trade Talks: A Solution for Oil Shortages?

President Trump of the US and President Xi of China will be meeting in Beijing on May 14-15. This meeting would seem to be the perfect time to start reorganizing the world with shorter trade routes, so that the world economy uses less fuel for transportation. Continue reading

Posted in Energy policy, News Related Post, Oil and Its Future, oil shortages | Tagged , , , | 1,784 Comments

Losing the Iran War May Be the Best Outcome for the World

At this point, the world economy needs to make a major transition in order to deal with the inadequate level of fuels available for long-distance transportation.
It is ironic that the world economy cannot make a change such as this without a war to focus our attention in this direction. Continue reading

Posted in Energy policy, Financial Implications, News Related Post | Tagged , , | 3,760 Comments

A New Explanation for Tariffs and Bombings

Because of energy-related shortages that are already being encountered, national economies are beginning to act like the players in a game of musical chairs, with one too few chairs. Leaders have taken to building up armies, cutting off exports of critical minerals, imposing tariffs, and bombing other countries. Continue reading

Posted in Financial Implications | Tagged , , | 3,475 Comments

Understanding Deglobalization: The Role of Diesel and Jet Fuel

While international trade grew as a percentage of GDP between the 1960s and 2008, it has been basically flat since then. Now the shortages of diesel and jet fuel are forcing the international trade percentage to start falling to a lower level. Continue reading

Posted in Financial Implications, News Related Post | Tagged , | 1,446 Comments

2026: Expect a very uneven world economic downturn

The Maximum Power Principle strongly suggests that even as limits are hit, the world economy cannot be expected to collapse all at once. Instead, the most efficient producers of goods and services will be able to succeed as long as resources are available, while less efficient producers will tend to fall by the wayside. Continue reading

Posted in Financial Implications, News Related Post | Tagged , , | 1,895 Comments