The Federal Reserve would like to raise target interest rates because of inflation concerns and concern that asset bubbles are forming. Part of their concern seems to arise indirectly from the rise in oil prices, relative to their low level in early 2016.
Figure 1. WSJ figure indicating likely reasons for rate hike.
A finite world does not behave the way most modelers expect. Interest rates that worked perfectly well in the past don’t necessarily work well now. Oil prices that worked perfectly well in the past don’t necessarily work well now. It seems to me that raising interest rates at this time is very ill advised. These are a few of the issues I see:
[1] The economy is now incredibly dependent upon rising debt to prop up its spending. The pattern of total debt to GDP for the United States is shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2. United States’ debt to GDP ratios based on Federal Reserve Z1 data and BEA GDP data. The red line represents the increase over the latest three years.
There was a huge increase in debt in the period leading up to the 2008 crash. Every year between 2001 and 2008, the increase in debt was greater than four times the increase in GDP. In fact, for some years in that period, more than $8 of debt were added for every dollar of GDP added.
We now seem to be starting a new run up in debt. In 2015, the amount of debt added was $2.5 trillion ($66.1 trillion minus $63.6 trillion), while the amount of GDP added was only $529 million. This indicates a ratio of over 4.7 for the single year of 2016. (Figure 2 shows only three-year averages, because of the volatility of amounts.)
[2] The vast majority of the debt run-up since 1981 (Figure 2) seems to have been enabled by falling interest rates (Figure 3). Given how dependent we are now on large increases in debt to produce GDP, it would seem to be dangerous for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
Figure 3. US Federal Bonds 10 year interest rates. Graph produced by FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data).
With falling interest rates, monthly payments can be lower, even if prices of homes and cars rise. Thus, more people can afford homes and cars, and factories are less expensive to build. The whole economy is boosted by increased “demand” (really increased affordability) for high-priced goods, thanks to the lower monthly payments.
Asset prices, such as home prices and farm prices, can rise because the reduced interest rate for debt makes them more affordable to more buyers. Assets that people already own tend to inflate, making them feel richer. In fact, owners of assets such as homes can borrow part of the increased equity, giving them more spendable income for other things. This is part of what happened leading up to the financial crash of 2008.
The interest rates that the Federal Reserve plans to change are of a different type, called “Effective Federal Funds Rate.” These also hit a peak about 1981.
Figure 4. US Federal Funds target interest rate. Graph produced by FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data).
[3] The last time Federal Funds target interest rate was raised, the situation ended very badly.
Figure 4 (above) shows that the last time Federal Reserve target interest rate was raised was in the 2004-2005 period. This was another time when the Federal Reserve was concerned about the run-up in food and energy prices, as I mention in my paper Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis. The higher target interest rate was somewhat slow acting, but it eventually played a role in bursting the debt bubble that had been built up. In 2008, the amount of outstanding mortgage debt and consumer credit started falling, and oil prices fell dramatically.
It is ironic that the US government is again trying to bring down food and energy prices, when they are at a price level similar to the price level when they tried this approach the last time.
Figure 5. Monthly average Brent oil prices, with notes regarding when the Federal Reserve changed its target interest rate.
The Federal Reserve looks at its favorite metrics, PCE inflation and PCE inflation excluding food and energy. From this high-level view, it is likely that they have no real understanding of exactly what energy price problems are causing the strange result. With this high-level view, they do not realize that a big contributor to the rising costs is the increase in oil prices between the January – March 2016 period, when they were under $40 per barrel, and recent prices, which were above $50. (They are now back below $50 per barrel, but this would not be apparent from the metric.)
When this high-level view is used, it is easy to miss how low energy prices are today, relative to the needs of energy producers. Most people who have been following what is happening in the oil industry know that prices are not high, relative to the prices needed for profitability. Even if some US companies claim to be profitable at $50 per barrel, it is clear that, in general, the industry cannot withstand prices as low as they are today. At the current price level, investment is too low.
Part of the problem is that oil exporters need higher prices if they are to obtain adequate tax revenue to fund their programs. For example, Saudi Arabia has found that because of its falling tax revenue, it needs to borrow money to maintain its programs. This is a big change from being able to set aside money in a reserve fund, out of excess tax revenue. This is another place where the shift is toward more debt.
[4] The pattern the Federal Reserve seems to want to follow is the 1981 model, in which temporary high interest rates seemed to force energy prices down for a long time.
If we look at oil prices compared to US wages per capita (dividing total wages by total population), we find that oil “affordability” was at a low point in 1981. We saw previously in Figures 3 and 4 that interest rates were raised to a very high level at that time. The gray stripes in Figures 3 and 4 indicate that a recession followed.
Figure 6. Average barrels of crude oil affordable by US residents, calculated by dividing the average per capita wages (calculated by dividing BEA wages by population), by EIA’s average Brent oil price for each year.
Figure 6 shows that after interest rates fell, affordability rose until 1998. To a significant extent this was the result of falling prices, but it also was the result of a larger share of the population working, and thus contributing to rising wages.
There were many things that allowed this benevolent outcome to happen. One was the fact that we already knew about available oil in the North Sea, Mexico, and Alaska. When this oil came online, oil prices were able to drop back to a much more affordable level. It is very doubtful that shale oil could play a similar role today, especially if it is likely that higher interest rates will drop oil prices from today’s $50 per barrel level.
One thing that helped improve affordability in the post-1981 period was improved gasoline mileage. There were also cutbacks in oil use for home heating and for electricity generation.
Figure 7. Average on-road fuel efficiency by Sivak and Schoettle, “On-Road Fuel Economy of Vehicles in the United States: 1923-2015,” http://www.umich.edu/~umtriswt/
Figure 7 suggests that the earliest changes in fuel economy provided the biggest savings. In fact, overall savings after 1993 are quite modest.
One factor that helped reduce oil consumption both in the 1970s and in the 2008 to 2013 period was high prices. Now that oil prices are lower, we cannot expect as good a result. If oil prices drop back further, there is even less incentive to conserve.
[5] Adjustments made using Quantitative Easing (QE) (a way of producing low interest rates) appear to have had a rapid, significant impact on oil prices.
In late 2008, after oil prices had crashed, the US Federal Reserve implemented QE. Using QE created very low interest rates, which seem to have had an impact on world oil prices.
Figure 8. Monthly Brent oil prices with dates of US beginning and ending QE.
Clearly, lower interest rates encourage more borrowing, and discontinuing a program that gives very low rates would tend to have the opposite impact. Thus, we would expect the direction of the oil price changes to be similar to those shown on Figure 8.
One hypothesis regarding the rapid impact of QE was that it encouraged borrowing in US dollars, in order to purchase bonds in other currencies with higher interest rates (“carry trade”). When QE ended, the carry trade was cut off, reducing investment in countries with higher interest rates. Instead, there was more interest in investing in the US. These changes led to the US dollar rising relative to many other currencies. Since oil is priced in US dollars, these shifting relativities made oil more expensive in non-US dollar currencies. Thus, the affordability of oil declined for buyers outside the US. It was this decline in affordability outside the US that brought down oil prices. Figure 9 shows the shift in currency levels when the US discontinued QE in 2014.
Figure 9. US Dollar vs. Major Trade Weighted Currencies. Chart created by FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data).
Increasing Federal Reserve target interest rates would seem to have the effect of further raising how high the US dollar floats compared to other currencies. If this happens, we would expect lower oil prices, and more problems with excessive supply.
[6] The way increased lending seems to move the economy along is by using time shifting to provide a “layer” of future goods and services that can be used as incentives for businesses to invest in making goods and services now.
The problem when making goods of any kind is that resources need to be purchased and workers need to be paid, before the finished product is available for sale.
Figure 10. Image created by author showing how goods and services are created. It also needs a “government services sector,” but it didn’t fit easily on the slide.
As a result, at the time goods and services are produced, there aren’t enough already-created goods and services to pay all of those who have contributed to the effort of making the goods and services. To work around this problem, debt or a product similar to debt is needed to pay some of those contributing to the process of creating future goods and services.
One way of thinking about the situation is that an increase in debt during a time period adds a layer of future goods and services that can be distributed to those contributing to the effort of making the goods and services (Figure 11). This significantly increases the amount of goods and services to be distributed above the level that would be available on a barter basis, based on goods that have already been produced.
Figure 11. Figure by author showing how the “increase in debt” effectively adds another layer of goods and services that can be distributed. (As with Figure 10, this chart should include a category for government services as well.)
[7] The spending ability of US citizens has been lagging behind, even with the huge amount of debt being added to the economy. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it will tend to make the situation worse.
The biggest expenditure for most households is housing costs, either for an apartment or a new home. As with oil, we can compare affordability by comparing prices to per capita wages (total US wages/total population). On Figure 12, one amount shown is the median rent for unfurnished apartments in the US, based on US Census Bureau data; the other is The People History’s estimate of “new home” prices over the years. In general, affordability has been falling. Figure 12 shows that the fall in affordability of apartment rent is a relatively recent phenomenon. The fall in affordability of home prices is a long-term phenomenon, no doubt enabled by falling interest rates since 1981.
Figure 12. Comparison of new home prices from The People History and median non-subsidized rental asking prices based on US Census bureau data. These are divided by (total US wages/ US population) from the US BEA. The indexes are different for home and apartments, chosen so that two would show separately on the chart. If amounts shown are falling over time, housing is becoming less affordable.
Another product whose affordability is of interest is electricity. Electricity is an energy product whose affordability is important, because it is used in residential, commercial, and industrial locations. The affordability of electricity tends to be less volatile in pricing than oil, whose affordability was shown in Figure 6. Because the pricing of electricity is more stable, I have shown the affordability of electricity at three different spending levels:
- Per Capita Wages – Total US wages divided by total US population.
- Per Capita DPI – Total Disposable Personal Income (DPI) divided by total US population. Disposable Personal Income includes government transfer payments (such as Social Security and unemployment payments), in addition to wages. It also includes “proprietors’ income,”which is a relatively smaller amount.
- Per capita DPI+Debt – Total Disposable Personal Income, plus the increase in Household Debt during the year, divided by population.
Figure 13. Quantity of electricity that an average worker could afford to buy, using three different definitions of income. (Average wages are based on BEA total salaries and wages, divided by BEA total population, and Disposable Personal Income is defined similarly, using BEA data. DPI plus debt includes the change in Household Debt, from the Federal Reserve’s Z1 report, in addition to DPI in the numerator.)
Based on Figure 13, electricity was becoming more affordable until 2001 on a wages-only basis. Since then, its cost has been relatively flat.
On a DPI basis, electricity was considerably more affordable until 2004, after which it declined, and then rose again.
On a DPI + Debt basis, there was a much bigger jump in affordability. This big increase in debt corresponds to the housing bubble of the early to mid 2000s. Interest rates were lower and underwriting standards lessened, so that almost anyone could buy a home. This allowed a run-up in home prices. Homeowners could borrow this equity and use it for whatever purpose they chose–for example, fixing up their home, buying a new car, or going on a vacation. The big increase in DPI+Debt, relative to DPI, gives an indication of the extent to which the housing-related debt bubble in the early 2000s affected spendable income.
Which of these scenarios is really correct? It depends on the segment of the economy a person is looking at. For people of modest income, in other words, those who rent apartments, the wage-only scenario is probably the most representative. For people who have high incomes and own a home, the DPI plus Debt scenario is probably more representative.
[8] All income seems to ultimately derive in part from rising debt, and in part from energy consumption. If interest rates are too high, the required interest payment exceeds the benefit of time shifting.
We can see from Figure 13 that debt is very helpful in producing income for workers. Some of this comes from the government transfer payments, funded by debt. Some of this comes from the wages paid by businesses, funded in part by shares of stock, which are debt-like in nature. The currency with which workers are paid is, in fact, debt. A person can see the connection, by thinking of currency as being similar to “gift cards,” issued by a business. The business would need to record the value of these gift cards as a liability on its balance sheet.
The underlying problem giving rise to the need for debt is “complexity,” and the need to obtain the services of many trained people and of many types of tools, before goods and services can actually be created. All of this builds extra expense and delays into the system, in the manner described in Figures 10 and 11. Somehow, there must be interest payments to compensate for the time shifting that is necessary: the whole string of events that must lead up to producing the products that are needed. Tools must be made far in advance of when they are needed. In fact, there is a whole string of “tools to make tools” that takes place. Factory buildings need to be built, and roads need to be built. Workers must be trained. In order for the people and businesses involved in these processes to be compensated for their effort, and induced to delay their own consumption of goods and services, there need to be interest payments made for the time-delay involved.
Debt (together with shares of stock, which are debt-like) cannot operate the economy alone. Energy products are also needed to provide the physical transformations required. These include heat and transportation, and electricity to operate devices that use electricity. Of course, human workers are needed as well. The major pieces of the system, and the way they operate together, are shown in Figures 10 and 11.
It would appear that an economy can start “from scratch,” using only debt, plus available resources (including energy resources, such as biomass for burning), and some sort of government (perhaps a self-declared king). If the king sees a productive project that might be undertaken–perhaps building a bridge, or cutting down more trees for farmland–the king can impose a tax on the citizens, and use the tax to hire a group of laborers to use the available resources. Once the tax is imposed, it is a debt of the citizens. It can be used to pay the laborers who do the work.
The debt-based system seems to build upon itself. As more wages are available, these wages allow workers to take out loans, and allow businesses to create new goods and services that can be purchased using these loans. These loans are promises that can be exchanged for future goods and services. Since energy is used in creating all goods and services, these loans are more or less guarantees that the economy, and its use of energy products, will continue in the future.
The thing that connects debt to the rest of the system is the interest payments required for time shifting. When the system is relatively efficient, the return on investment is high, so interest payments can be high. As diminishing returns set in, interest rates need to be lower. We are now encountering diminishing returns in many areas: extracting fossil fuels, extracting minerals, producing enough fresh water for a rising population, creating an adequate supply of food from a fixed amount of arable land, creating new antibiotics as bacteria become drug resistant, and the cost of finding new drugs to treat diseases that affect an ever-smaller share of the population.
[9] It is relatively easy to make economic growth occur when energy products are becoming more affordable, relative to spendable income. When energy products are becoming less affordable, it becomes virtually impossible for economic growth to occur.
We know that historically, the cost of energy products has tended to fall over time. This has been described in more than one academic paper.
Figure 14. Figure by Carey King from “Comparing World Economic and Net Energy Metrics Part 3: Macroeconomic Historical and Future Perspectives,” published in Energies in Nov. 2015.
A United Nation’s report also shows the same pattern (the bottom two categories are energy related):
Figure 15. Figure from UNEP Global Material Flows and Resource Productivity.
The only way that energy costs can fall relative to GDP, at the same time that energy use is rising, is if energy products are becoming less expensive over time, compared to the incomes of the citizens. This falling price level allows more energy products to be purchased. As energy prices drop, it is possible for the economy to afford the increasing quantity of energy products required to produce even more goods and services.
There are many ways that energy products can become less expensive. For example, the mix can shift among different energy products, shifting to the less expensive products. Or new techniques can be found that make extraction less expensive. Finding more efficient ways to make use of energy products, such as the increasing miles per gallon shown in Figure 7, also contributes to the falling relative cost to workers. Of course, “falling EROEI” tends to work in the opposite direction.
Unfortunately, we are now running out of ways to truly make energy use cheaper over time. The ways we seem to be down to now are (a) paying energy companies less than their cost of extraction, and (b) reducing interest rates to practically zero.
We can see from Figure 6 that oil was becoming more affordable relative to wages between 1981 and 1998. Falling interest rates and rising debt seemed to play a role in this, as well as success in drilling for oil in places such as the North Sea, Mexico and Alaska. Since then, the only way that oil affordability could rise was by oil prices falling below the cost of extraction, starting in mid 2014.
The situation for electricity is shown in Figure 13. Electricity was becoming more affordable on a “wages-only” basis, until 2000. Since then it has plateaued. The economic push that would have come from falling electricity prices must come from elsewhere–presumably from adding more debt.
Affordability of electricity on a “DPI plus debt” basis rose considerably more, with a peak in 2004. Thus, adding more debt, in the form of transfer payments and rising debt for homes and vehicles, added considerable spendable income. But it has not been possible to regain the affordability of the 2004 period in recent years.
We are now reaching limits because we no longer are truly seeing a reduction in energy costs. Instead, we are seeing very low interest rates and oil prices lower than the cost of production. These seem to be signs that we now are reaching limits. Energy prices really need to drop for the economy to grow; the economy will make them drop, whether or not producers can profitably extract oil at the low cost that is affordable by the citizens.
[10] China seems to be cutting back on growth in debt now, at the same time the US is talking about increasing interest rates. Energy products, especially oil, are sold to a world market. If China cuts back on debt at the same time as the US raises interest rates, energy prices could drop dramatically.
Figure 16. UBS Total Credit Impulse. The Credit Impulse is the “Change in the Change” in debt formation.
UBS calculates a global “credit impulse,” showing the extent to which there is a trend toward increasing use of debt. According to their calculations, since 2014, it is China that has been keeping the Global Credit Impulse up. If China is cutting back, and the US is cutting back as well, the situation starts looking like the 2008-2009 period, except starting from greater problems with diminishing returns.
Observations and Conclusions
The economy looks to me like a type of Ponzi Scheme. It depends on both rising energy consumption and rising debt. Judging from the problems we are having now, it seems to be reaching its limit in the near term. Raising interest rates will tend to push it even further toward its limit, or over the limit.
Debt is used to pay participants in the economy using a promise for future goods and services. This allows the economy to appear to distribute more goods and services than are actually available. In a way, adding debt is like being able to manufacture future energy supplies that can be used to pay those who participate in making the goods and services we produce today. When energy products are high-cost to produce, and delayed in timing (such as wind and solar PV), the need for debt especially rises.
Part of our problem today is the extent of specialization of those analyzing our current problems with energy and the economy. This means that virtually no one understands the full problem. Bankers seem to think that debt, and interest rates on debt, can solve all problems. Energy analysts think that energy resources in the ground are all-important. They both create incorrect analyses of the overall problem. Rising debt is needed, if energy products that have been created are to be absorbed by the world economy. The energy gluts we are seeing are signs of inadequate wage growth. A major function of growing debt is to add wages. Unwinding debt leads to the kinds of problems that we encountered in 2008.
It is tempting for world financial leaders to think that they can find a solution to today’s problems by using higher target interest rates to slightly scale back economic growth. I don’t think that this is really a good option. The world economy is operating at too close to “stall speed.” The financial system is too fragile. If any solution can be expected to work, it would seem to need to be in the direction of re-starting QE. Even if it produces asset bubbles, it may keep the world economy operating for a bit longer.
Stagflation on the Horizon
Logic and current trends suggest that declining output growth accompanied by higher prices will begin hitting economies and facing policy makers in the coming years. Markets should begin sniffing out this stagflationary macroeconomic setup this year.
Output
We have published data showing global output growth is in decline and have argued this trend will continue. Indeed, a long term graph of US Real GDP growth implies a change in complexion since 1999, from credit-induced boom-bust economic cycles to a secular trajectory of decline (red lines on graph 1).
Graph 1: US Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent change from preceding period is in secular decline
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/03/06/pb%201_0.jpg
This trend is especially troublesome following the debt-induced wash-out recession in 2008/2009, subsequently offset by zero-bound interest rates and central bank asset purchases. Since then, real GDP growth, characterized by middling output and low consumer inflation, has languished on a low plane, bouncing between 2.5 percent and 1.6 percent (shaded box on graph 1).
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will not release its initial GDP estimate for Q1 2017 until April 28, but credible high frequency reports suggest real US output growth is in the process of falling below its low plane. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecasts growth of only 1.3 percent in the first quarter.
Among the factors weighing on the updated outlook are softer projections for household spending and non-household capital expenditures. Even more ominous is that this estimated slow growth included a month (February) in which the average temperature was ten degrees above normal – the hottest in sixty years.
Weak output growth is a far cry from the Fed’s official 3.1 percent forecast based on broad econometric models. This more optimistic forecast has more influence over the Federal Open Market Committee, which establishes and executes monetary policy. Accordingly, the Fed has communicated it will hike rates today and hinted it will again two or three more times in 2017.
Declining secular growth stems from the downside of pervasive debt assumption, which retards capex and consumer spending. Unperturbed, policy makers are doubling down. GaveKal Capital published the following two graphs showing how critical Treasury debt issuance has become to US growth. The first shows how debt assumption is increasing far more than GDP ($1.05 trillion of federal debt vs. $632 billion of GDP in the latest quarter). Clearly, it takes a lot of government debt assumption to drive output growth.
Graph 2: Diminishing Impact of Federal Debt on Nominal GDP: 2007 – 2016
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/03/06/pb%202_0.jpg
To prove its point, GaveKal notes a close correlation: “In the first three quarters of 2015, debt growth was held in check by the debt ceiling and fiscal conservatives in Congress. Notice the negative effect on GDP growth in this period as growth slowed each quarter. Then in the fourth quarter of 2015, the debt ceiling was suspended and the flood of federal debt began again. Predictably, growth picked up too.”
GaveKal then extended the same graph back 35 years and expressed the time series annually. We can see from Graph 3 below that output growth regularly outpaced debt assumption when a dollar of debt produced more than a dollar of output; which is to say when the US economy functioned properly.
This was real economic growth – growth that was not borrowed and that was expected to be repaid someday.
Graph 3: Diminishing Impact of Federal Debt on Nominal GDP: 1980 – 2016
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/03/06/pb%203_0.jpg
More http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-15/paul-brodsky-stagflation-horizon
http://macro-allocation.com/
Note:
GaveKal then extended the same graph back 35 years and expressed the time series annually. We can see from Graph 3 below that output growth regularly outpaced debt assumption when a dollar of debt produced more than a dollar of output; which is to say when the US economy functioned properly.
This was real economic growth – growth that was not borrowed and that was expected to be repaid someday.
Interesting info.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Gardner_(photographer)
This Scottish idealist-turned-photographer, best known for taking the last pics of Lincoln, had financed a homestead in Iowa, sending some of his friends there. When he arrived to America in 1856 the homesteaders in Iowa mostly died of tuberculosis or were dying of it.
After learning that he chose to stay in Washington DC, taking pics of important people, instead of farming. He lived for 26 more years.
The people who died were hardly Scots , not today’s fat slobs. Yet they died because homesteading was too hard.
—-
I do find the would-be homesteaders expecting to survive the collapse in their farms. Before the looters arrive, they will be cut down by disease and malnutrition.
I have read a couple of books about homesteaders in Canada in the 1800’s…. and they met with similar fates… it was a grim existence at best.
Preppers would be served well to read books of this nature … or better still … turn off the power for a week – chop wood with an axe – wash clothes by hand — eat only what you grow or are able to capture.
Fukushima its just gets worse and worse?
http://enenews.com/nuclear-engineer-fukushima-is-worst-industrial-cataclysm-in-the-history-of-the-world-its-about-as-close-to-hell-as-i-could-imagine-the-nuclear-cores-have-disappeared-contami
Oh, you know. Those cores are around somewhere. No big deal. How about some sushi?
Out of sight, out of mind. Out of mind being the key phrase here.
I was a meltdown “China Syndrome”. The cores are probably under the ground burrowing deeper by the day. Ground water contamination can’t be far off.
The fuel will soon emerge in the Falkland Islands…..
It’s the FALKLANDS SYNDROME!
Molten nuclear powerplant cores from Fukushima – having burned their way down through the planetary crust and plunged into the Earth’s centre – are set to emerge again on the other side of the planet and devastate the Falkland Islands, scientists believe.
Sensationally, the Register can reveal full details of the impending disaster in the South Atlantic, despite ongoing efforts by both the British and Japanese governments to keep it secret.
“It’s usually called the China Syndrome,” explains Dr Petar Glick of the Federation of Concerned Scientists. “The idea is that if a US-based reactor core melted down it would become so hot that nothing could resist it, and it would burn its way down through the planet until it reached China.
“But in the case of Fukushima, the other side of the planet is actually the Falkland Islands.”
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/04/01/falklands_syndrome_fukushima_meltdown_to_cause_10000_chernobyls_in_south_atlantic/
(april fools?)
The date on the piece is 1 April 2015, the names are bogus and the science is very fishy.
If nuclear “corium” ever melted through the crust it would reach the mantle and eventually melt and fuse with the earth’s “corium”, and they would all live happily ever after.
There’s a mention of April Fool’s somewhere there… 🙂
The story just goes on and on. I plan to visit Japan in May. I will stay very far from Fukushima, and keep my fingers crossed that it doesn’t get worse while I am there.
I can see why Japan cannot get the population interested in restarting nuclear reactors. It seems like there are three that have been restarted, and they are all in the far south of Japan.
A handy map if you are worried.
BTW, (right?) clicking on the map should bring up access to the raw data. That tends to show that more recent readings are, in some places, significantly lower than in 2011.
Just sayin’
http://safecast.org/tilemap/
We won’t go farther north than Tokyo.
If you go to Japan, you will find that the closer people are to ground zero, the less bothered they are by the radiation. People in Western Fukushima contemplate breaking away to form a new prefecture in order to “re-brand” their region. People Tokyo refuse to go to Fukushima or eat the food for fear of who knows what, while people from West Japan refuse to visit Tokyo for the same reason and people from overseas balk at the prospect of coming to Japan. All along the West Coast of the US, iodine tablets and geiger counters have never so well. Whereas unless you go within a 1km of the plant, you would likely be getting more exposure to radiation living in Denver, Cornwall and certainly Ramsar. Gail, you will get more exposure flying to and from Japan than you ever would living in Fukushima, and then there’s those airport scanners…..
Thanks! That is an interesting observation.
We have a lot of nuclear in the US, but not generally on earthquake faults.
The amount of fixes, to try to get them to the high standards many people would like seems to be what is driving nuclear power plants out of business.
Last Friday, Tokyo Electric said they would not be re-starting Fukushima Daini, a plant with four reactors and capable of producing over 4,000 MW that survived the earthquake and the tsunami without melting down.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daini_Nuclear_Power_Plant
As I want to see BAU continue for as long as possible (and at least until Keith launches his fleet of space-based solar power plants) and prevent Japan from going through a re-run of the Warring States period, the abandonment of so much existing nuclear capacity fills me with disappointment. The industrialists who used to have carte blanche I deciding how to run things seem to have lost their collective nerve, and among the general public the fear of the nuclear bogeyman trumps the “unknown known” of a future without it.
I hadn’t heard about Fukushima Daini. Perhaps resistance to reopening the plants has been ending.
Japan has had debt troubles even with the availability of nuclear. Without it, it seems like their problem would have been much worse.
We have a huge amount of nuclear electricity in the US. In fact, the US is the largest user of nuclear power, with close to a third of the world’s nuclear electricity consumption in 2015. In the Eastern part of the US, it is especially used.
Hey Jerry I saw that day one…Just went on the web and saw the plans of them and i knew it was a full melt down…they had the spent rods on the roof and the roof was gone
apocalypse? were taken ET home lol
should have bought Lockheed Martin stock in 2008
“We now have the technology to take ET home.”
~ Ben Rich, retired CEO of Lockheed Skunkworks, 1993
https://solari.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Screen-Shot-2017-03-14-at-3.52.08-PM-325×182.png
A comparison of the stock of Lockheed Martin, the US government’s largest defense contractor, vs. the S&P 500 is in order. Among other responsibilities, Lockheed had lead responsibilities for numerous information and payment systems at DOD during the period from FY 1998 to FY 2015 when DOD experienced over $10 trillion of “undocumentable adjustments.”
Whether or not Lockheed is “taking ET home” as Ben Rich once suggested is impossible to say. However, Lockheed’s unique position as both weapons manufacturer and running critical aspects of the federal government. including their unique role with satellites and all things space, is taking their stock to the moon.
Related Reading:
Lockheed Cuts & Runs
The Spy Chief’s New Financial Power
well put grayfox ‘dodos’
Does anyone else feel that we here at OFW are like the smartest and most wary of what was once the largest flock of dodos.
yup
the only argument is about who is the smartest of the smart
I vote Gail.
Thanks!
Well, as for being smart, one of my friend’s flock of sheep was smart enough to take shelter during heavy rain instead of standing around like the others.
She still went to the slaughterhouse with the rest.
Insight is perhaps useful only if it can bring peace of mind or courage in facing events.
Otherwise, best to remain one of the herd…..
Good advice, no point getting worked up about things beyond our control. I see lots of venting of frustration, that would be my guess.
Interesting way of putting the problem!
how long have we got before fast eddies apocalypse scenario plays out my gut instinct is within seven years
Since 2012 I have been thinking to myself that I won’t live to see my 50th (because of the collapse of IC).,, I was born in 1971..so not too far off from you…but I wouldn’t fall off my chair if it happened this year…
1975 here. Got a bit more ways to go to 50. I always assumed that I’d be around in 2045, when on August 12th, the midday sun disappears in the place I was born and have lived my whole life. Damn exponential function.
I hear you timl2k11…unfortunately the laws of the physical world do not give a rat’s behind about you, me or anyone else…they just are…our species thought we could circumvent them, but we were always going to lose that game…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-15/stagflation-strikes-us-consumer-prices-surge-fastest-pace-5-years
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/03/09/20170315_CPI%2B.jpg
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/03/09/20170315_CPI1.jpg
Actually GDP forecast is 0.9% now….
And as we know in the new normal — higher interest rates are a great way to increase GDP and at the same time tamp down inflation …
Janet has everything under control.
in other words the central banks of the world are pulling the plug on BAU so they can bring in their version of BAU-LITE, is their something we don’t know or something they don’t know ?
BAU Lite is not possible
It would appear that inflation is building in the system — and they need to tamp it down….
The medicine is likely to kill the patient…
i totally concur on that fast eddie the end is nigh this could be the straw that broke the camel’s back
“BAU Lite is not possible”
What do you think we have now? That’s BAU lite in comparison to the higher percentage GDP rise there use to be.
Uh… duh…. GDP is still rising …. huh… huh huh huh…. that is not BAU Lite… hu… huhuhu
MOAR….
Yellen’s response to ‘why are you raising rates when GDP is tanking’ is ….
Epic Gibb–erish….
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-15/startled-reporter-asks-why-yellen-hiked-gdp-and-real-wages-sliding-here-response
Don’t feel bad, just take some economics classes and you’ll understand her answers better.
Gawd. The Fed at least needs a plausible and superficially reassuring bullsh*t-artist in that post. She is neither of those things, alas.
Plenty of analysts are not fooled:
“Lance Roberts, chief investment strategist at Clarity Financial, makes the case in one chart that raising interest rates off ultralow levels during a period of tepid economic growth coincides with recessions in the following three to nine months.
“The Fed lifted key rates by a quarter-point Wednesday to a range of 0.75% to 1%. The rate increase comes as the U.S. economy has been growing at a lackluster pace. Government data show that gross domestic product—the official report card of economic performance—was growing at a seasonally adjusted pace of 1.9% in the fourth quarter compared with 1.6% in 2016 and 2.6% in 2015.
““Outside of inflated asset prices, there is little evidence of real economic growth, as witnessed by an average annual GDP growth rate of just 1.3% since 2008, which by the way is the lowest in history since…well, ever,” Roberts wrote in a blog post March 9.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-rate-hikes-low-growth-recession-says-stock-market-strategist-2017-03-15
One thing Yellen mentions is the expected drop in labor force participation with so many people reaching retirement. This is expected to have an adverse trend on future growth rates. There are an awfully lot of people in younger age groups who are not working. And given the problems we have with funding Social Security benefits, we should be raising the retirement age. If there were enough good paying jobs around, it is hard to believe that the labor force participation rate would be going down.
the powers that be obviously know that a deflationary collapse is coming in 2017 or 2018 which would imply on oil price of 10-20 dollars a barrel so they are giving their buddies the banks a pay rise by raising rates the collapse in oil prices is inevitable and this will lead to no oil glut as oil supply naturally contracts at the new oil price
How do you ‘know’ this collapse will occur in 2017 or 2018?
Must be some type of visionary skill set IMO, I will just wait to see, what can any one do about it. Too many predictions here, the sun will be up shortly will look forward to that.
As my dear grandmother-in-law says: nobody knows what the day brings before the sun has set.
Inflation Hits Consumers, Mortgage Rates Take Off, “Financial Repression” for Bondholders and Savers
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/03/15/inflation-hits-consumers-mortgage-rates-take-off-financial-repression-for-bondholders-and-savers/
The Fed appears to have no choice — they must raise rates.
Healthcare is the thing that has skyrocketed the most over the years, on the chart shown. The fact that people must purchase insurance now hits some people especially hard. I understand healthcare is now 18% of GDP. Why not figure out a way to get healthcare cut back to, say, 9% of GDP. The situation is absurd beyond belief. Somehow, there needs to be a cutback in the whole program.
“cutback in the whole program.”
It certainly could be done. One of the things that is being done is making sure of people’s wishes re end of life treatments and hospice care. I am not sure what the current numbers are, but a while ago about half the medical expenses were for terminal patients in the last year of life. A lot of that treatment people don’t want. To some extent medical cost is being held down because the medical profession has become aware and tries to get end of life directives from everyone who comes in contact with them.
The other thing would be the FDA reducing cost by accepting new cheaper treatments. Stem cell treatments are relatively cheap. Rebuilding bone on bone knees with stem cells cost about 15% of the cost of metal replacement knees. It’s not permitted in the US, so my wife had her knees rebuilt this way in the Cayman islands almost 5 years ago. She is totally happy with the result.
It seems like there is a long ways to go.
I didn’t realize that stem cell treatment of knees was available. (My knees are OK, so I had never looked into the idea.)
when ”free” healthcare starte in uk in 1948—it was said that once everyone was made ”better” the need for healthcare would diminish
fast forward to now–and its easy to see where everything went wrong (or maybe right)
This chart, of all the one’s I’ve seen, is the most terrifying.
http://www.numbernomics.com/nomicsnotes/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Fed-Funds-Rate-1.jpg
Mainly that long flat line. At risk of stating the obvious, the next bear market could very well be “the” trigger. I noticed that the FED does not agree with what would seem to be the incredibly rosy outlook that the stock markets imply. As someone else said, there’s a huge disconnect between the markets and reality. Run bull, run!!
Right! And the practically straight down line, before the flat line, when the Federal Reserve finally realized the big “Oops!” they had made with raising rates before.
Lowering interest rates to close to zero creates asset bubbles, since if you can borrow money at practically zero interest, why not borrow money and invest in bonds wherever rates are higher? Or invest in new shale developments, if it looks like there will be at least a small chance of payoff? It makes sense to invest in all kinds of investments with virtually no return. Buying back stock is especially a favorite one. Then earnings per share seems to rise.
The thing is…
The big money understands how this all ends — I saw a clip from CNBs — and the cheerleader let slip and said ‘we all know how this all ends’
He was discussing an investment opportunity with a high yield — and it was pointed out that it was a big risk (might have been a bond issuance from serial defaulter Argentina) — and his response just confirmed that the financial world knows this is a house of cards…
They may not understand the root cause — but they know how it ends…
So if you can pick up cash and virtually no cost why not just punt anything with a good story?
Look at Snapchat — what a joke — but look at the valuation at IPO….
Look at shale — a joke — but it has a good story — it’s got the PR machine behind it…. so even though it bleeds money — the cash pours in
Look at Tesla — lost half a billion dollars in Q4… and yet they are able to go back to shareholders in a rights issuance for another billion —- Tesla is a joke — if not for easy money combined with investors understanding that the future will bring a massive collapse — it would not exist. Nobody would buy this dog.
That’s where we are — no sense sitting on the sidelines watching the Ponze inflate — jump in — because when it deflates —- no matter what you do — you are in a world of hurt.
What they do not know is that collapse is just the beginning of the end.
I guess someone let Trump know we gotta keep the Saudi’s happy!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-15/saudi-prince-sees-trump-as-true-friend-to-muslims-full-text
Bizarre! It definitely is a piece written for public consumption. It is hard to believe that anyone could come up with some many positive things to say about someone that they were previously at odds with.
First, on oil. Of course there is an oil glut. We are producing more oil than ever before. That’s what it means to be at peak. The question is…when does the decline set in, and how fast?
Second, on Saudi Arabia. Why should one be jealous or upset at their oil wealth? Life is random and unfair. If anything, one should be upset at the massive advantage of America in all things (resources, land, protection, etc.), which gave it the illusion of omnipotence and immortality. This is slowly declining and should be welcomed by all.
For all you out there who aren’t American, admit it. You secretly rejoice in the spasms that America is experiencing.
‘Why should one be jealous or upset at their oil wealth?’
Are envy and jealousy the same thing?
Is envy not a form of admiration — a desire to emulate?
Is it bad to want to travel at say 10% of the level that the King does? A smaller private jet — a harem of 20 vs 200 — 20 bottles of champagne instead of 200 — 20 suites instead of 200….
Did you see they have an escalator to get off the plane!!! An escalator! Heaven forbid they should walk DOWN the stairs….
I have no problem with walking down the stairs — I’ll even walk UP the stairs….
I think envy is a good thing — it allows you to identify a role model — and you try to be like that person —- of course without a kingdom filled with oil it is unrealistic to think one can be as awesome as the King….
But in this instance a Lite version is feasible….
Think of it this way — some people idolize Paris and Kim…. so they put naked pics of themselves up on the interweb — now they are unlikely to rise to fame and fortune by doing this — but they still get a bit of Lite notoriety…. a bit of fame…
It’s like that with me and the King — he is my role model…. if I could achieve 10% of the greatness that is him….. I will have succeeded during my brief time on the planet ..
I can’t wait for the Saudi’s to crash. They are a pox on the world of Islam, using their wealth to establish salafist madrassas and their Wahhabi ideology throughout the muslim world. It’s bad enough the greedy west being after their oil wealth. They don’t need the Saudi’s further destabilizing them.
Well… Islam is a farce…. so I have no problem with anyone who poxes it…
It would rather please to watch these guys knocked off their thrones into the gutter…. unfortunately when that happens — I will be in the gutter welcoming them…
But that said — seeing as we are all going into the gutter and there is nothing we can do about it — there will be some satisfaction knowing they ate rat as their last meal too….
@dolph
“For all you out there who aren’t American, admit it. You secretly rejoice in the spasms that America is experiencing.”
No I certainly do NOT rejoice. America has been a very, very benevolent master of the world and a dear friend to Europe, and still is. A beacon of good will and tolerance. A friendly companion, not a foe! Your willingly shared your wealth and protected us. Thank you USA!!
Seriously?
In reality though, something like 99% of that “master’s benevolence” was only due to Europe’s potential producing quality luxury goods desired in the upper caste in the US. And the ~1% rest was due to the fact, part of the global wealth is parked and controlled from within Europe, think about all the Luxembourg and Swiss shell investment companies owning megabanks and megaindustries, shares in the CBs ownership structure, etc..
This was explained here numerous times already, the US is just one of the global nodes, for a moment (past ~100yrs) linked with dominant financial debt reserve status, a host organism for tiny (supra global) entity living above it.
Hope they still need the host for a while, seems that way to me. Not familiar with this ” was only due to Europe’s potential producing quality luxury goods desired “, where was this covered on this site, did not read the whole site ?
Depends what side of that fence you are on.
America has raped and pillaged much of the world in order to live large….
Since it is a zero sum game — and I have picked up a few crumbs — I have no problem with that…
But if I were crumbless and I had a daughter who’s best shot at making a living was peddling her ass to fat bald old Eurotrashians…. I might feel differently.
Peaks come when prices are low; the low prices are what make producers cut back. Valleys come when prices are high. By the way, natural gas has a glut too, and coal has had problems with a glut. It is not a production oversupply problem; it is an under-demand problem.
I would expect that we have some kind of financial collapse that causes prices to drop to $10 or $15 per barrel. Producers decide it isn’t worth the effort and quit. Or banks close, so oil companies can’t pay their workers. However it happens, the decline seems likely to be pretty quick. It doesn’t have much to do with “decline rates” we usually hear about.
Fed raises rates for second time in three months
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, encouraged by steady economic growth and strong job gains.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-idUSKBN16M0GY
‘strong economic growth’
0.8% is strong?
Full employment? hahahahaha
The Council of Economic Advisers found that the other half of the drop in labour-force participation came from cyclical factors tied to the Great Recession. In addition to the normal falloff in participation seen in other recessions, the depth and severity of the Great Recession pushed millions of Americans to the sidelines, discouraging them from even looking for work.
In recent months, the labour-force participation rate has mostly held steady, possibly indicating a tightening labour market as people who were previously discouraged from looking for work move back into the labour market.
According to the December jobs report, the labour force participation rate ticked up to 62.7% from a rate of 62.6% in November.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/labor-force-participation-rate-december-2016-2017-1?r=US&IR=T
https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/586f9e79ee14b621008b6e65-1200
Crumbling castles. Game over bro.
This is a disturbing development … no doubt about that….
I have been working off of the assumption that rates would remain in the zero — and perhaps negative range —- right up until the very end….
Maybe Delilah knows why….
Face saving time. But as we know it just accelerates things. I wonder what it’s like to be Janet Yellen. Has to be surreal like walking on clouds maybe marshmallows. Alice in wonderland moment.
they have given the banks a pay rise as interest paid on any money parked in their accounts was being paid at 0.5 % now it will go up to 0.75%
I don’t know what the FED is up to. The whole idea of raising rates is insane at this point.
Unless the FED wants to do a controlled experiment in collapse. Perhaps raise rates to test how much of an interest rate hike the economy can take. Then, come to the “rescue” with lower rates again?
It’s crazy Greg. No one can explain it in secular terms. We’re so far into overshoot that these moves are only delaying the inevitable. Not by much. The markets are totally disconnected from reality. What’s interesting to consider is the children sacrificed to Baal were veiled and drugged. (Ancient Canaan) Very sad so much information is available now but so few care.
This is what the sheeple are seeing :
These Markets Are Really Moving After the Fed Interest Rate Hike
The S&P 500 Index rallied to its highest level of the session on the back of the Fed’s announcement and is holding on to its gains.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-15/these-markets-are-really-moving-after-the-fed-interest-rate-hike
Fed raises rates for second time in three months
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, encouraged by steady economic growth and strong job gains.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-idUSKBN16M0GY
The sheeple are left with the impression that rate hikes improve GDP — lead to job creation — and they can’t wait for the next one!
Hurrah — Hurrah — let’s try 0.5% next time Janet! We want MOAR.
If this results in another crisis — similar to the 2008 one only much larger in scale — one has to wonder if the CBs could come to the rescue again …
They’ve already thrown everything at this trying to fend off the next crisis —- I am not sure what they could do now should something big hit.
There is the other option ‘they have no choice because keeping rates low will blow up the system – raising them will also blow up the system — but not as quickly’
If that is the case then we are really close to the edge…. QE ‘floats all boats’ ….. rising interest rates is like piling ingots of lead into all boats….
Perhaps a controlled demolition as the next phase of who knows what is rolled out?
Not sure what who knows what could be — martial law is not really a viable next phase — because that would just signal the ultimate end game…. the death spiral would quickly follow.
Oh to be have a listening device on the wall inside the Eccles boardroom!
Eddie
If that’s your name. This is the end. Only fools believe the system can be sustainable. Only a few months remain. Your smart enough to recognize that fact. Are you smart enough to recognize the way out? I’m a realist bro not a fanatic like Glenn. Any Dissipative system is doomed to failure. However you and I have lived because of the Dissipative system we have grown in. For any life or intellectual thought to exist this system has to be preserved. Only a fool like Glenn thinks it’s by chance. The tuning is so precise that your odds are far better in winning the lottery. Man must recognize his limitations.
yes… it sure looks like the end is very close… we may not even have months….
Low interest rates are what have made the giant global debt load serviceable …. the whole thing could just suddenly tip over….
Zero Hedge has published a few articles on this issue http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-04/why-fed-trapped-1-increase-rates-would-result-24-trillion-losses
if things are that close Eddy you better send those 69 virgins over to me to save.
Wouldnt want the poor dears to come to harm, and I have a certain expertise in saving fallen women
Too late…. I’ve just come back from locking them into the container…. for their ‘safety’ … because there are reports of The Terrorists in the area….. they are fine with that
i hope your self sufficiency programme is working out
or you must have an astronomical feed bill
They are all former super models —- all they eat is a single leaf of lettuce per day —- and the great thing is that I can grow lettuce in my green house in the winter months!
I got this all worked out…..
http://d1z88p83zuviay.cloudfront.net/ProductVariantThumbnailImages/3ecf8605-46c0-4981-989f-272492777ec4_425x425.jpg
something tells me youve got bunny girls confused with bunny rabbits
easily done in a state of end times stress—you’d better let me give you a hand there—or something.
From the look of things… invites to the End of the World Party will be going out shortly — hold tight
JT-
Months…do you really think we are down to that?
One big difference now as compared to 2008 or 1987 – a lot of people know something is wrong now. Many of them are awake. It is not easy as it was last time.
And most of them have never recovered from the last crisis…. in fact they are mostly far worse off…
This is the big one!
Their “forward guidance” reminds me of the lookout on the titanic. These rate hikes are just a scream in the night. Left, right, no back!!! It doesn’t matter. We are going to hit that iceberg. Yellen and company will be safely aboard the life raft at that point.
The uncertainty with regard to the timing of the impact of these rate rises is really causing me a great deal of confusion:
– do I stop buying slightly green bananas?
– had a wheel alignment on the 4 ba 4 last week and The Guy said the tires have 2-4k tread left on them — should I buy new tires or use the cash for more whiskey?
– I’ve got some gorse bush grabbing hold down in one of the paddocks — and for the life of me I cannot find the attachment for the trimmer to cut bush …. is there any point in wasting money on another blade? I understand that radiation is the mortal enemy of gorse….
– should I just start eating pizza and ice cream for breakfast lunch and dinner — and sipping whiskey from morning till night?
Gin, go with gin.
Greg, I’m thinking the Feds need a couple of tools in their box when the next recession hits. Lowering interest rates is the best tool they got but how can they do that when rates are close to zero. Can you imagine a major recession when interest rates are already at zero?
The problem is … the entire system is reliant on ZIRP…. if we move to much off of ZIRP …. it all goes to pieces… there will be no recession — there will be collapse.
Pull back out QE. Get long term rates down with short term rates, too.
Wouldn’t that cause the banks to collapse? I thought I read somewhere that they make money by borrowing money at low interest (short term) and lending money at higher interest (long term). So the yield curve needs to stay “normal”.
U.S. gross domestic product was on track to grow at a 0.8 percent annualized pace in the first quarter following the latest jobs, consumer price and retail sales data, down from the 1.2 percent rate calculated on March 8, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now forecast model showed.
Its latest first-quarter GDP estimate would be the lowest for any quarter since a 0.20 percent GDP contraction the government reported for the first quarter of 2015 USGDPF=ECI.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-atlantafed-idUSKBN16M2E4
Seems a strange time to be raising rates….. perhaps they have no choice?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-15/fed-raises-benchmark-rate-as-inflation-approaches-2-target
Well, Gail, there’s the firs 1/4% rate hike by the Fed this year. Claim there will be two more later this year.
http://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/World_Incremental_crude_production_2000-Nov2016.jpg
http://crudeoilpeak.info/latest-graphs
It looks like higher oil prices prompted a resurgence of US fracking activity, last year — but, will it hold up? (http://oil-price.net/)
Here’s a thought, let’s deploy a slew of the mylar origami reflecting ‘umbrellas’ into high stationary orbit to light up the dark side of the earth. That would eliminate the intermittent problem of solar power for electricity. Besides that we could grow plants 24/7 and eliminate the need for sleep. I just love tecnological fixes for all our dilemmas. 😉
While you’re at it calculate the life cycle against 250,000 pieces of space debris. 😳 And we’re back to shale, shale, shale.
I think that space debris is the reason for trying to put generating power in geosynchronous earth orbit (GEO) instead of low earth orbit (LEO). I agree that space debris is a problem, especially at lower orbits. There are a lot of unknowns. If some people want to spend their time examining all of the details of what would need to be done to make space solar work, I have no objection. Other people want to look at all of the details of (sort of) sustainable local farming.
There’s a good summary here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space-based_solar_power
When someone has actually addressed all of these — and I mean has workable solutions to these problems — not just pie in the sky nonsense —- then I agree it is worth a discussion
‘
But as it stands – space solar is not feasible — nobody has addressed these issues — and nobody other than some crack pots — are even bothering trying to make this work — because the obstacles are insurmountable
Drawbacks[edit]
The SBSP concept also has a number of problems:
The large cost of launching a satellite into space
Inaccessibility: Maintenance of an earth-based solar panel is relatively simple, but construction and maintenance on a solar panel in space would typically be done telerobotically. In addition to cost, astronauts working in GEO orbit are exposed to unacceptably high radiation dangers and risk and cost about one thousand times more than the same task done telerobotically.
The space environment is hostile; panels suffer about 8 times the degradation they would on Earth (except at orbits that are protected by the magnetosphere).[38]
Space debris is a major hazard to large objects in space, and all large structures such as SBSP systems have been mentioned as potential sources of orbital debris.[39]
The broadcast frequency of the microwave downlink (if used) would require isolating the SBSP systems away from other satellites. GEO space is already well used and it is considered unlikely the ITU would allow an SPS to be launched.[40]
The large size and corresponding cost of the receiving station on the ground.[citation needed]
Energy losses during several phases of conversion from “photon to electron to photon back to electron,” as Elon Musk has stated.[41]
It also looks like Iraq’s production is up.
There was lot of officialdom talk about Russia demanding non USD denominated payment for energy carriers (natgas, oil exports) starting 2014/15. Interestingly enough, someone somewhere opened the credit spigots for the shale again around the same time. It could be a mere coincidence, the “triangle of doom” and affordability of oil could be the driving factor instead. Or all of the above. Who knows..
That’s an interesting graph to look at from the standpoint of increasing amounts of oil worldwide. To get the overall trend to DROP over the time indicated, US Shale, US, Canada, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Libya & Qatar would all have to be removed. So it would appear there is plenty of oil, thus the glut, but maybe the bigger question is if price is reaching a point of causing a stall speed for oil producers, particularly those on a tighter budget? But then again even US shale producers are back at it.
That US shale portion looks like a pretty good piece of the total. Glad to see that world total still climbing up, may have to adjust the graph scale soon who knows?
You have to understand that Matt’s graphs represent the incremental change since 2000. So everything you see is in some sense being magnified.
Thanks, I now see that base is the dominant portion, looked at the group of graphs again. The magnified view really affected my perception, appreciate the clarification.
Keith, why did we ever doubt you?
Russian scientists will create a system after 2020 to transmit the Sun’s energy to the Earth from satellites on its orbit, the State Space Corporation Roscosmos said on Tuesday.
“By now, we have finished research work – our scientists have developed an experimental stand with a solar-pumping oxygen-iodine laser. A draft technical assignment for R&D work for this invention has been fully prepared. It is planned that the final stage of developing laser systems for transforming solar energy will be accomplished after 2020,” the Roscosmos press office quoted First Deputy CEO of Shvabe Holding Company (part of state hi-tech corporation Rostec) Sergei Popov as saying.
As Rostec said, these systems will be mounted on orbital satellites.
“The use of the oxygen-iodine laser Foil with direct solar pumping and a capacity of 1 GWt will help transform stellar energy into laser irradiation. The technology is an innovative method of generating electricity through the use of a laser-optical adaptive system of forming an angular divergence of up to 10-7 rad,” the state corporation said.
More:
http://tass.com/science/935434
My 2 cents:
This is as usual, conveniently a few years away. Remember nuclear fusion?
Let’s pretend for a moment that the second law of thermodynamics does not apply and more energy can be extracted than consumed in the process.
If that comes to pass, Jevon’s paradox will apply. Humans will use the new found source of energy to accelerate the mining/extraction of what’s left of the Earth’s mineral resources/topsoil/fisheries/forests, etc.The destruction of the Earth’s ecosystems, which give it the capability to sustain complex life, will accelerate even more and the crash will come even sooner. The End.
Glenn, any comments about this religious dogma?
One clarification: I am NOT talking about the economic crash. That may come sooner-from human perspective, it’s all a matter of perception. The ecological crash AKA the 6th mass extinction has been going on IMHO since humans intentionally started to alter the environment by the use of fire. So, relax, nothing’s under control…
++++
When Green Groupies insist that ‘all we need is a very low cost – even free — clean energy solution — and we’d be saved’
I challenge them on the implications of that — noting that we had nearly free energy for the past 100+ years… and look where that got us….
That usually results in the glazing over of the eyes.
“Keith, why did we ever doubt you?”
Most interesting, thanks for pointing it out.
The concept has been around since the late 60s. Back in the late 70s Boeing spent some serious money developing the concept. 5-10 years ago the Japanese spent some effort designing a laser type power satellite and creating some good artwork.
However, GW class lasers generate some horrible military problems. 4 GW is equal in energy to one ton of TNT being fired per second. A GW laser is a formidable weapon. There may be ways of assuring such power plants are not used for military purposes but so far they are not obviously foolproof.
The question (after you cope with the military aspects) is what mass per kW this kind of power satellite has? The product of the kg/kW and $/kg needs to be about $1300/kW for the economics to make sense. For military purposes this number is much relaxed.
There are lots of years after 2020. Perhaps they are talking about 2050.
While waiting for the Russians to save us, I will head off to the local wood to gather fallen timber for next winter.
The money I save by so doing will be spent in the globalised consumer economy, on things I really don’t need at all, and thereby keep BAU ticking over.
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/03/14/foreign-investors-pile-into-us-commercial-real-estate-bubble/
http://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/US-Commercial-Property-Index-GreenStreet-2017-02.png
http://www.petyak.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/bigstock-Flock-Of-Yellow-Canary-Serin-3469891-810×262.jpg
How does anyone know it’s a ceiling? From where it is on that graph it could plateau, go down or go up.
I hope you are not a financial analyst in your day job…
You have noticed that there is a bloodbath in retail? Major retailers are shuttering hundreds if not thousands of shops in malls across America …
That’s not generally a positive for commercial property…. actually it points to another crisis — on the scale of the subprime residential housing crisis….
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Just checking in on bin laden ….. he seems to be doing well….
http://www.freakingnews.com/pictures/85500/Osama-Bin-Laden-in-Paradise–85536.jpg
The end of BAU might not be so bad afterall…
https://thecampofthesaints.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/harem-theclassicliberal-560.jpg
Which one is the gardener…?
Need to keep your energy up as BAU is going down…
Anyway, I am thinking that Shale is still operating in the US as a result of the availability of the reserve currency.
If innovation was making Shale a worthwhile proposition, then this should see its adoption outside of the US, especially where desperate Govts need new resources. But nada so far. Is this where capital goes to die, with the new investors money going to pay interest on the sunk capital, thereby disposing of the printed dollar. Rather tidy huh?
‘If innovation was making Shale a worthwhile proposition, then this should see its adoption outside of the US, especially where desperate Govts need new resources.’
Now that would make sense…. to someone who had common sense….
http://bitsandpieces.us/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/imagessanda-floating.jpg
i.e. proof Bin Laden is dead as advertised.
He probably died in the winter of 2001 and buried in some cave.
But the body might actually be his.
Hitler’s corpse , which was supposed to be burnt, was captured by the Soviets along with that of Goebells and his family. The East Germans flushed them to a sewer sometime in the 1970s.
I might be willing to work with him on a harem sharing programme…. the gods have been rather kind to him….
Fast Eddy
Do you have a line on where I can get a good pool side chair like that? The is no way the junk that sells at big box stores around here will hold that much weight.
it could double as a wheel barrow in a pinch….
meanwhile in south australia the cashless society has taken a small step forward http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-14/cashless-welfare-card-to-continue-after-trial-success/8350946
And then “you” talk about command economy and rationing. We already have rationing. It is just the rations has to be halved, and then halved again, and …
All kinds of approaches. Reminds me of prohibition. Also of India calling in its currency. Perhaps South Australia’s approach cuts out drug use as well.
Here in Europe we just estimate spending on drugs and whack it on to GDP:
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2014-05-30/sex-drugs-and-accounting-in-europe
Meanwhile South Australia has highest priced electricity in Australia, after decades of privatizing the formerly state owned utilities (EVERYONE knows that private is best, sarc) and subsidizing solar and wind (only the best and brightest have such schemes, ROFLMFAO).
.
So now we have frequent power failures but, fear not, no less than Elon Musk is offering a humungous battery back-up system for when the Sun don’t shine (aka known as night, or cloudy) and for when the wind don’t blow (aka often). Idiotocracy rules OK.
Actually … Musk’s ‘solution’ does not fix that problem — he is quoting for 4 hours back up supply in the event there is an outage…
And as usual – he is lying about the numbers — perhaps he is expecting the US government to subsidize the install — so as to enhance his Cult of Personality aka Solar Jesus (riding about on a 70M jet….)
The Art of Spin (Spin for Dummies)
Ministry of Truth (MOT): hmmm…. there’s a problem with auto sales — they are faltering — incentives are not helping to move inventories… we are F876ed if this continues…. I know — let’s go sub-sub prime on this — all the bums are driving around in new cars — so let’s get the mega bums better credit scores so they can qualify for new cars and other credit lines….
How should we do that? Let’s just eliminate a few things that are dragging down their FICO scores… Yes let’s do that.. Ok done.
One problem — we can’t say that we did this because we are desperate — that would scare the sheeple…. so what can we do?
We spin it as a positive — we say we are doing this because the old methodology was not fair — nobody should have a black mark on the credit rating — it’s not fair!!! — it hurts their job chances… it makes it difficult to rent an apartment – buy a car — and so on ….
But they are bums – that is why their credit rating is so low – won’t people figure this out?
No — people will not figure it out — because they are sheeple — they will think what we tell them to think…
Just like what this ‘journalist’ says
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfrLkqsEuog
Now we must contact all the most respected MSM and tell them to publish these lies… I mean this spin … um I mean propaganda…. ah what was I thinking — they must publish this TRUTH!
In a move that is likely to boost many people’s credit scores, all three major U.S. personal credit monitoring firms are going to remove tax liens and civil judgments from credit reports.
Having a credit report with less black marks and better scores not only means a higher chance of getting a loan, but also a higher likelihood of success in everything between renting a home and landing a job.
The latest omission of negative information from the compilation of FICO scores comes in response to regulatory concerns, according to the Journal. Since 2015, the three credit-reporting firms have reached settlements with more than 30 states over practices including handling of errors. Since then, some information unrelated to loans, like gym memberships and traffic tickets, have been struck off credit reports.
http://fortune.com/2017/03/13/fico-credit-scores-personal-finance/
Saudi King Arrives In Japan: 10 Aircraft, 500 Limos, 500 Tons Of Luggage, 12,000 Hotel Rooms, 2 Golden Escalators
When Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz of Saudi Arabia visited Georgetown in September 2015, the Four Seasons hotel did some serious redecorating. As we reported at the time, eyewitnesses at the luxury hotel had seen crates of gilded furniture and accessories being wheeled into the posh hotel over the past several days, culminating in a home-away-from-home fit for the billionaire Saudi monarch, who was in Washington then for his first White House meeting with President Barack Obama.
“Everything is gold,” said one Four Seasons regular. “Gold mirrors, gold end tables, gold lamps, even gold hat racks.” Red carpets were been laid down in hallways and even in the lower parking garage, so the king and his family never have to touch asphalt when departing their custom Mercedes caravan
The guests staying at the 222-room hotel for the next couple of days are all part of the 79-year-old king’s entourage of Saudi diplomats, family members and assistants, one source said; a full buyout of the entire property was reserved for the visit. Guests who had booked to stay at the Four Seasons during the royal visit have apparently been moved to other luxury hotels in town. A call to the Four Seasons confirmed the hotel is sold out Thursday, Friday and Saturday nights.
Fast forward to this week, when the same King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud landed in Japan, leading to largely to the same reaction, namely people stunned at the size of his delegation and his 500 tons of luggage. The king made quite an entrance, descending from his plane on one of his two golden escalators. The four-day visit, which began Sunday, is part of the Saudi royal’s month-long Asia trip, as the kingdom looks to diversify its economy from oil dependency. Saudi Arabia is Japan’s largest oil supplier.
The king’s delegation arrived in Japan on 10 aircraft and according to the Japanese press, an entourage so large even Japanese government officials didn’t have an accurate number of how many people to expect. In preparation for the royal visit, 1,200 rooms in Tokyo’s best hotels were booked for the delegation.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-14/saudi-king-arrives-japan-10-aircraft-500-limos-500-tons-luggage-12000-hotel-rooms-2-
And to think … I’d be happy with a private jet…. it’s so unfair!
And I bet they bring a massive harem with them too… probably one jet is full of harem girls…. and high grade coke — and pills — and really really good wine and whiskey
I am sick with envy!
On the positive side… when BAU goes …. and I am starving … I will think about how these pigs are also starving…. and it will bring a smile to my face…
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/564x/65/09/2c/65092c954369405bbcf9c867b08a194a.jpg
Rat Bastards…
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/d1/86/1d/d1861dd0216d876197225275dfa05a98.jpg
I’m rather surprised by all that gold: I’d always thought that bohemian shabby chic was more the Saudi style.
Perhaps the Prophet is to blame: he (or rather, Allah) forbade muslims to wear silk or jewellery, but he clearly never thought of home furnishings – that gave them a loophole for all the gilt fittings.
You thought wrong.
http://www.apmex.com/product/60672/1945-46-saudi-arabia-gold-4-pounds-aramco-u-s-mint-au-55-ngc
Would I love to drop his “Royal Highness” in the middle of one of these places….
Boy, would that be a “Reality TV show” Mega Hit. Hey, maybe we could sign up a number of the Saudi Princes and have a contest. Who could last the longest!
Bully idea, bully, I say!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Uwo5rjiIEsQ
The people in “The Slum” are surprisingly dressed well. Color clothes? come on. The people in 1800 would have envied this kind of lifestyle.
Not many of them would be around if Norman Borlaug and the Rockefeller and Ford Foundations did not spread around the Green Revolution. When MacArthur returned to Manila in 1945 it had less than a million, and a lot of the city destroyed by the Japanese. Now it has 12 million.
That’s funny, your standards are very low, and to be honest now I know where my donations end up that I throw in the container at the mall!
A World Hungry for Used Clothing
thrift store, used clothing
More than 60 percent of all donated clothes received by U.S. charities are exported to overseas markets where demand for secondhand clothing is high. Most of this clothing (approximately 55 percent) is resold as is and worn again. Twenty percent may be remanufactured into industrial wiping cloths, another 25 percent may be converted back to raw fiber for reuse as insulation or paper products
A major export to the 3rd world. Your comment about envy of 1800, everything is relative and we can argue that about just about anything.
Still his Royal Highness in a ripped T shirt and cut offs shifting through the dump for something to eat…now that is my idea of entertainment!
By the way, if we are indeed living in a simulation, the Glenn is most definitely an AI Program who has been programmed to piss off us realists here on OFW with his general cluelessness, endless stupid comments and citations of articles that disprove absolutely nothing about what we talk about here on OFW…
This is in response to an earlier post of Norman.
Before the Great War, most people had barely enough to survive, and abundance limited to only the chosen few.
However, that was the period with the greatest advances of technology and civilization.
After the Great War, too much resources were wasted on too many people – we are just going back to the days before it.
Smite is right – technofeudalism is the way to go, with very low standard of living for the most.
Interest rates should not be raised, so the landowners could buy up the properties on cheap and kick out the poor,
How about keeping the poor, so that they can farm the land with hand tools or sticks?
prior to the industrial revolution, that was what the poor did
then when factories were built, they moved there for 200 years and pretended they were rich.
now it’s back to tilling the soil again
Primitive tool-based agriculture could only support maybe 1 billion people, much less now with a lot of polluted or built-up areas which can’t be reconverted to farmlands.
Obviously the landowners will be very selective about what poor people to keep. By the time of Jane Austen, George Knightly, the largest landowner in Emma, only had one single tenant named Martin, who was a single guy with no family obligations.
Interesting conversation. My instincts have tended toward keeping the class system where it was around 1950. There was considerable innocence then among the peasant majority throughout most of the world. In my native third world nation, I didn’t see people starving, and there were safety nets (of sorts) for even the most indigent. I don’t know where the money came from to buy basic tools, but I doubt that peasant farmers were using sticks. (The British has a sense of the land, of how to meld the highest sophistication with the humblest peasantry that Americans completely, completely lack.)
Then that all went haywire in the 60’s. I’m not convinced that it’s just that “population grew” and people started moving to the cities (although that might be more true than I realize). Some other global dynamic–an intensification of greed and real estate development as part of it, perhaps–appears to have been at work. In all this, it’s unclear to what degree population explosion was cause or the effect. But there was a lot more stability and health in the old days.
economic systems, particularly in europe, revolved around extracting energy from the land—grain meat and timber—and used the peasant class to do it, while the aristos used the profit to build mansions and live a life of liesure.—think downton abbey.
the only reason that propped that up was land ownership, often originating in right of conquest in the past.
it was a status quo that seemed like it would last forever, then they invented the steam engine and made cheap iron.
so the peasants went into factories, and were mobilised into armies, and began to kill each other on an industrial scale.
the survivors thought they were wealthy–not realising that their wealth was debt.
this went on until the energy to do it ran out….like now
the usa hasn’t reached that stage yet because the american land mass absorbed fresh energy extraction.
but an imposition of the feudal economy is inevitable—the many working for the few.
My impression is that World War II added a huge amount of wealth to the economy. Quite a few women went to work, and this raised incomes. Also, non-government debt started to be used a great deal more, and this allowed people to buy homes and cars. The concern at that time seems to have been with the added wealth lifting all boats. This is the three-year average increases in per capita wages I showed earlier.
The change allowed many families to live in homes in the cities and suburbs. For the first time, women could stay at home with families, without the huge workload of trying to do all of the things that made a farm operate. Families were beginning to be able to afford at least one car. We kept adding more and more programs to help the poor. Perhaps the culmination was Lyndon Johnson’s “Great Society,” that was his campaign slogan in 1964. He was known for his space program, pressure on states to allow racial equality, and the Viet Nam War.
Gradually, things started falling apart. Desegregation brought a lot of concerns. People moved to the suburbs, rather than having their children go to school with children who might not be from a similar background to theirs. In order to afford a house in the suburbs, often both spouses had to work outside the home. The Viet Nam war was very unpopular. Young men could avoid being drafted if they were in college or graduate school. This brought about a huge interest in college and graduate school, as a means of staying out of the war. The country got divided in a different way (more education based) than what had been the case before.
It’s not what a guessing person like me would have thought. The huge spike in earning during the war. Then the huge dip around ’47, when the GI bill and suburbanization might have been in effect. It’s great to have your facts and figures available.
In recent years, I’ve thought more about integration too. I don’t believe it’s ever going to work for the non-elite (inner cities) to be integrated anywhere. If inner city schools were so attractive that whites wanted to integrate INTO them, that would be fine with me. The entire vision of black communities being so hapless as to have no recourse but integration outside is insane. These places would have done better had they incorporated the philosophy of Marcus Garvey instead of MLK.
You have to remember I am using three year averages, so timing can be a little off from the actual dates. The dip came because the government first tried to start paying back its war debt, without sufficient offsetting rise in other debt, and this created a problem. Then, they figured out that this wouldn’t work. I suppose the Korean War from 1950 to 1953 helped wage growth, too, especially if the government financed the war with debt.
Ive always expressed wars and warwork as digging (finite) resources out of the ground, reworking them into hardware and throwing it at the opposing side.
This seems to fit arrowheads or shells to my way of thinking.
cost is borne by the nation as a whole, via the taxpayer.
if the nation is energy rich (ie USA), they win—if they are energy poor, (ie UK) they go broke, if they run out of energy altogether, they lose (ie Germany/Japan)
Wealth added to the economy is the mirage of government spending–ie taxation. So people get taxed in order to get wages to get taxed to get wages—ad infinitum
Unfortunately such ‘innocence’ will never come back. 50 years of American-style consumerist lifestyle has destroyed every corner of earth, including Bhutan whose monks installed satellite TVs to watch soccer played in England and elsewhere.
you are right except for the techno part
technology—essentially making things move in ways other than using muscle power–requires a mass-participation creative industrial complexity.
the highest technology used to be the wind mill and the sailing ship—essentially the same thing.
a feudal society by definition cannot sustain complexity.
It might be possible to have slave staffed factories—as in Germany in the 30s/40s, but that carries the seeds of its own destruction, so these must be short lived because it is not possible to force people to make/operate complex machines…only things like picks and shovels.
society will be feudal, but without the techno part
North Korea – where oxcarts, steam engines and hydrogen bombs coexist.
The societies of Singapore and some Middle eastern city states are feudal as well. Singapore is, for all practical purposes, the personal kingdom of Lee Kwan Yew’s descendants and people who don’t like them are not allowed to live in there.
those places are not viable
N Korea is a short term subject state—as was Na..zi Germany
Singapore is just a trading hub kept viable by the industries of surrounding nations
the gulf states exist only because of oil—when the oil goes so will they
Those examples exist because the rest of the world isn’t like that. When the world economy crashes, they will not survive.
my thinking was related to a major industrial nations—usa europe etc, which could not be sustained with techno-feudalism
Capitalism a genetic aberration?
http://faculty.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/gclark/papers/Capitalism%20Genes.pdf
Seems so—–
“Capitalism”
That’s one of the most interesting papers I have run into in many years. The conclusions are not certain, but it’s a step in the direction of understanding why the industrial revolution took off when and where it did.
We know, from the work the Russians did breeding tame foxes that personality traits can be genetically selected. It turns out the population of the UK was subject to about the same intensity of selection over roughly the same number of generations as the fixes.
There is a related paper where the researchers were looking at persistent psychological traits in China. They found major differences in the personality of people who lived for many generations in wheat or rice growing areas. It’s turns out that growing rice takes a special set of personality traits different from wheat. I think I sent it to Gregory Clark, so if you can’t find it and want a copy, ask.
So it was not the fault of religion…imagine that;-)
It has been surmised that their long experience of hunting, and also the herding and slaughtering of vast flocks of sheep made the Central Asian horsemen – Mongols, Turks, Chipchaks, etc – particularly suited for dealing with the human flock – encirclement, seizure, elimination, etc. And probably quicker-witted than cereal and rice farmers.
No doubt adding debt at lower interest rates is the easiest near term option. Still, its going to blow up.
Sorry to beat this dead horse again, but I know FE took a bit of heat (no pun intended) a while back on spent fuel ponds. Well, here’s yet another source from 2016: http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/scientists-say-nuclear-fuel-pools-pose-safety-health-risks-n577666
What boggles my mind is that it appears nobody has considered what would happen if a spent fuel pond was left unattended and without power for an indefinite period of time. I guess that is just absolutely inconceivable in most people’s minds.
There are a lot of things nobody has seen relevant to consider, here’s some of them
– solar and wind uses a lot of raw materials, and also fossil fuels for their maintenance
– an global energy revolution is not possible, because we don’t have enough raw materials or fossil fuels to do it
– climate change is now irreversible
– the world economy needs economic growth ad infinitum, or it collapses
– the only way we stay alive, is by using more and more fossil fuels annually
– pensions and welfare were always impossibilities, because they rely on infinite growth
– growth of the Anthropocene has lead to the sixth mass extintction, and the ecosystem is now in shut down mode
– once an economic collapse begins, or a deflation death spiral, our marvelous JIT global economy will be destroyed completely
– once energy, raw materials and spares are not delivered by the JIT global economy, there will be no rebuilding civilisation. The End.
Most people fall into three categories.
1. If it was truly important, somebody is already considering it. THEYs, the “authorities” will take care of it.
2. It is not my job, nobody told me it was my resposibility to consider it. NIMBYs
3. I choose to be p-o-s-i-t-i-v-e, everything else is a false reality. The Glenns.
and then we have a minority that DO consider what would happen.. But like the Glenns have demonstrated on this site, its like we are talking totally different languages. These sort of real life considerations doesn’t register in any way to the Glenns.
Glenn is a cult of one. His “facts” are irrelevant and he uses profanity to try to make a point. Incoming in 3…2…1.
Agree, but lets be correct, civilization’s on lower complexity level ran fine on hay, wood (charcoal) and bit of various low grade metal ores.. Not saying we are going to regress there from here – in long term perspective (thousands of years into future) it could be more like waves of dark ages punctuated by some periods of re-complexity attempts..
What would be the problem with 400 spent fuel rod ponds on fire?
A little radiation would reset our evolutionary history——-
(assuming anything survives– maybe something other than a RNA world?)
I recall giant Mi-26 copters flying sorties of tons of sand and some special substances and dropping it into the Chernobyl site. The crews were heroes. It’s very much doubtful anything of that sort will be organized in the future, in comparison the Fukushima response was a kabuki joke..
The Fukushima response didn’t require droppings of tons of sand, fortunately, but you should recall the brave crews in their giant helicopters dropping tons of seawater onto reactor buildings to keep the fuel ponds wet to prevent FE’s doomsday scenario from coming to pass.
https://youtu.be/yll-VuaCjb0
I recall them peddling the story of a diffuse hydrogen gas explosion-
https://youtu.be/W69thuv4e3o
Chernobyl could be entombed because it involved the reactor core — the amount of fuel was limited and it was still contained — so it could be covered with cement.
A fuel pond is not contained — and the fuel volumes are exponentially higher — so it’s not possible to entomb them
We can look at Fukushima where the reactor fuel is apparently outside the containment structure — making it impossible to entomb the problem.
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Sungevity Cuts Staff by Two-Thirds as Downward Spiral Continues
(Bankruptcy could be coming very soon, multiple sources at the company reported.)
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/sungevity-layoffs-solar-rooftop
Sungevity was not a solar company. They were a high tech SW company that farmed out all the solar dirty work…probably hoping for the wondrous CA SW billion dollar IPO.
Godspeed as they get flushed down the toilet. Good riddance.
This is symptomatic of our high flying tech culture that is powered by either cheap energy (past) or cheap money (present). Smart people don’t want to do any physical work. They are above that. They pursue the life of wealth created by being so smart, but enabled by the cheap energy/money matrix.
I wonder how many of the doomers on this site fall into the category of just not being willing to live any way but the easy life? They say everyone will die after BAU. I think lots will survive here and there. It’s just that they will be working their asses off to survive, not sitting in an ivory tower and posting onto blogs.
I have a small organic farm. We pull weeds by hand. After doing that for a while you kind of gain a perspective on mankind. I believe that man labored so long in the dirt and animal crap that he is genetically predispositioned to escape it for a life of comfort and ease.
Hence the psychological disposition toward ultimate doom after BAU.
Life will not be easy after BAU. But some will do ok.
Oh but I forgot…we are all going to roast from climate change or radiation. Radiation I can buy into…but (sorry, not AGW)
This is a different greentechmedia article. https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Sungevity-Declares-Bankruptcy-Sells-Assets-Gains-Up-To-20M-to-Continue
This is a great way to bring the costs of solar down… some fool invests hundreds of millions into a solar business…. it goes bankrupt (as expected) …. then a vulture swoops in to purchase the whole lot for pennies on the dollar…
And voila — the new owner is producing electricity at nearly now cost.
We just need to replicate this business model many times over and…..
We are saved! We are saved!
The one I keep watching is Spain’s Abengoa. http://in.reuters.com/article/abengoa-results-idINL5N1GD838 They seem to have bought themselves a little more time.
Speaking of weeds…. I would like to take this opportunity to provide an update on my twitch weed problem – otherwise known as the medusa….
http://www.kiwicare.co.nz/content/images/772/source/couch_twitch_grass.jpg
So … last winter I took a shovel to the beds that were infected digging down about 70cm…. I ripped those MOFs out right by the hair — their goddamn scalps were bleeding and they were begging for mercy …. NO F876ing way was that gonna happen —- the more they whinged the harder I hit them — I tore their F8767ing scalps right out of the ground….
I took a few of these bastards and stuck them onto pikes placed on the perimeter of the garden
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/06/13/article-2158950-13987FF1000005DC-240_306x423.jpg
And this growing season — they pretty much stayed away — I am sure the message was passed through the community ‘stay the F876k away from Fast Eddy’
I do get a few of the stupid ones showing up …. but they don’t stick around for long because….
Don’t ever let your guard down. That twitch grass is like this guy….
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zFxaCa-hr8o
It’s a never ending battle to stem the tide of encroaching.
Interesting little tidbit:
“With rising resource nationalism, Exxon has found it increasingly difficult to increase production and book reserves. As a result, it’s more reliant on higher-cost projects than in the past.”
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/14/energy-companies-feeling-pain-from-saudi-arabia-production-and-low-oil-prices.html
Brazil tumbles deeper into its worst ever depression
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/08/brazil-tumbles-deeper-into-its-worst-ever-depression.html
Brazil used to be able to collect significant taxes when oil was high priced. At low prices, it can’t collect the taxes. This is a big part of its problems.
Some analysts are now anticipating a pick-up in the economy, with forecasts suggesting the country will close the years with positive GDP of around 0.5 percent, close to 2014 levels when the economy was buoyed by events including the World Cup.
“However, we suspect that the fourth quarter should also mark the end of the recession.”
Anal-ists. We suspect – we have nothing to base this on — we hope — we pray ….. idiots
Asia Inc. stumbles through two years of profit shrinkage
First double dip since 1997 financial crisis puts resilience to the test
http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Asia-Inc.-stumbles-through-two-years-of-profit-shrinkage
These shrinking profits affect investments. This is not a good sign for demand for future goods and services.
What is alarming about this is that it is happening in spite of ongoing massive stimulus….
Are we here?
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/__sgXJ0qRoEs/TGGybI946hI/AAAAAAAAAkg/E9SdPLwLsp4/s1600/bernankestring.jpg
Dr. Tim posits that ~70% of the Chinese debt is confined to private industries aka production (over) capacity.. As opposed to the model of personal/gov debt in the west sunken mostly into frivolous crap..
‘The slowdown in China has hit the country’s domestically focused businesses hardest. Sixty-four companies based in mainland China and Hong Kong saw their profit shrink by 12%, or a combined $31.3 billion’
And this region is what has been keeping the global economy afloat…
US GDP is trending towards 1%…. Japan and the EU are basket cases….
Edging closer to the abyss….
And yet the PTB must be doing a damn good job. Two years ago on this site, many were projecting that we’d all be dead by now.
We must take our hats off the those who are keeping us alive….. this really is a truly magnificent performance —- like Bernanke said when he walked (no doubt he is still involved) ‘a lot of people hate me for what I have done — but when they come to realize why I did this things – they will thank me’
Imagine knowing you and your team are the only thing holding back total chaos — and not being able to defend your actions by explaining them……
I hope these people are being rewarded…. it must be stressful —- I don’t mind lending them my future harem if it helps keep them focused on the job at hand
We can thank China for keeping the debt supply going.
Manhattan Rents Fall for Every Apartment Size, Even Studios
Landlords offer concessions on 26% of all new leases
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-09/manhattan-rents-decline-for-every-apartment-size-even-studios
There are often other options instead of getting an apartment. Living with friends or relatives is one. If health care costs and education are taking too big a bite out of wages, living at home may be the only option.
Another option in New York might be getting a cheaper apartment elsewhere, with a longer commute.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Schoon/images/2014-01-08/clip_image002.jpg
Missing in this chart: The glorious technological miracle that has blessed U.S. with a large glut of expensive oil that cannot be sold in the U.S. or anywhere and how it’s fueling Oil energy independence for America.
Glenn will continue to be vindicated as long as shale could be subsidized and $US debt still forms the most important artery for the world’s fat cats system and also protectorate mindset govs all over the place keep on keeping the cart on the road..
And these powerful conditions my friends can last perhaps up to two more decades, although severe gyrations on commodity markets and in overall stability might be present through that epoch as well.
So I have your guarantee “a formal promise or assurance (typically in writing) that certain conditions will be fulfilled” for 2 decades or less, at no cost. Thank you, time to call it a day, the cat summons.
P.S. Glenn did get worked over a bit if you did not notice.
i never laid a finger on him
That’s most likely true…
What?
You mean the apocalypse has been postponed for maybe up to two decades, and won’t happen in 2017?
So many commenters on this forum will be so very disappointed to hear that.
You mean just because we are in population overshoot, a mass extinction, ecological collapse, and runaway climate change things aren’t great?
These realists are just Debbie Dowers!
Who cares haven’t you been listening to Glenn. As long as shale is being fracked everything else doesn’t matter. Life is shale, shale is life. Not original I read it on the Rigzone.
U.S. Subprime Auto Loan Losses Reach Highest Level Since the Financial Crisis
Rate rising amid worsening recoveries when borrowers default
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-10/u-s-subprime-auto-loan-losses-reach-highest-level-since-crisis
Getting a bit wobbly out there with the cargo cults—
Probably not yet at a crisis leave, but moving that way. Lenders start making cutbacks in who they will grant loans to.
I posed an article re: Fico scores yesterday — the authorities are headed the other way at the moment — they are removing some elements used to determine credit ratings so that those with previously poor ratings are now qualifying for loans….
The thing is…. there is a reason why banks don’t make loans to people who are unlikely to pay them back — the reason is that they frequently don’t pay them back…
Not a problem — just bail the banks out when those people don’t pay them back — I suppose….
Fast-
Speaking of loans. There is a guy who lives here that has never had a real job for more than a year, has defaulted on everything in his life, and just “bought” a $50,000 tractor. This while he has no current job and hardly a pot to piss in. Maybe this type of thing is worse in the “rich” countries but it must be bad when this is possible.
I wonder if I went to the bank and said I need a loan for a private jet — and operating costs for 3 years — if they would ok that….
Try these guys;
Deutsche Bank Tries to Stay Alive
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/03/09/deutsche-bank-plan-to-stay-alive-raise-capital-biggest-shareholders/
If that fails I can always try one of those Eye-Talian banks….
They are very adept at loaning billions without the expectation of being paid back…. and the really good thing is that they don’t even bother to seize the assets because that would mean that they have to realize the losses!
And to top it off — if I agreed to pay a token $1000 per month and they agreed to keep loaning me more cash to keep the plane in the air — they could refer to my loans as ‘performing’ and claim they are headed back into the black – they are making progress!
Son of a bitch — I may be onto something here…..
Only if your dog co-signs.
Paw print ok?
Shouldn’t be a problem, as of lately YT is full of teenagers buying ~$250k carz, and flipping them soon enough they got bored with the model/brand. Simply, using a middle layer of financing company, so everybody inside such a charade chain of fraudulent credit-debt issuance is happy. Only the ever shrinking pool of working for living idiots with no debt are shaking heads in disbelief.. and riding a bus..
Fast, and don’t be shy at the banker’s..
Get from them a proper jet, since entry level “get away” airplanes for ~1,600nm refueling legs start at $1M/(4M pressurized), and that’s way beyond your social not mentioning stardom status. So, instead aim for the real hardware with standing height and proper toilets on board. Good luck.
Maybe something like this http://www.private-jet-fan.com/elon-musk-jet.html
I wonder — does it run on solar power? Is it a green machine?
The poster boy for renewable energy and his 70m jet — pretty much says it all doesn’t it…
Oh hang on … he has competiton:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQxia_M-NkU
Could Glenn be Leonardo? You will notice that when confronted with facts Leonardo just walks away —- where have we seen that before? Hmmmmm…..
And what do the regulators do about this?
Yep – the make it even EASIER for people with really bad credit ratings — to borrow….
New FICO criteria could help borrowers
The changes to FICO criteria are aimed at reducing the negative effect of overdue medical bills and at removing the penalties to consumers who pay off debts that had been assigned to collection agencies.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-fico-20140809-story.html
We are in the twilight zone folks!
Hey Glenn
Here’s another bet you can’t lose.
https://www.google.com/amp/amp.usatoday.com/story/78083134/
Turns out the lottery is the best way to get rich.
Glenn – Even if fracking 3.0 is marginally profitable, it won’t solve the larger problem of the main oil suppliers need for a fairly high price level. Fracking accounts for a very small percentage of the total oil produced worldwide and you can’t really ramp it up in a way that will solve the larger problem. Big picture, that’s what Gail is all about.
Also, you are spending entirely too much time at the keyboard — get a grip.
Kurt,
Please pull your head out of your ass.
If Gail spouts all the fact-free nonsense that gets repeated ad nauseaum on these threads, she will completely destroy her credibility, serious people will dismiss her out of hand, and her more important insights will never even receive a fair hearing.
And you believe I spend “entirely too much time at the keyboard,” but Fast Eddy doesn’t? Do double standards much?
I don’t insult you, why are you using profanity?
Kurt,
You make these proclamations of future events as if they were fact. But you don’t know what the future holds. This is the reason you come off sounding like a crank, and anybody who has even a scintilla of knowledge about the oil business will immediately tune you out.
Examples:
• Even if fracking 3.0 is marginally profitable,,,,
(How do you know what the future profitability of fracking 3.0 will be? Even the current profitability of fracking 3.0 seems to escape you, much less what the future holds.)
• [Fracking 3.0] won’t solve the larger problem of the main oil suppliers need for a fairly high price level.
(How do you know what the future price of oil will be?)
• Fracking accounts for a very small percentage of the total oil produced worldwide and you can’t really ramp it up in a way that will solve the larger problem.
(How do you know this? Shale oil already amounts to 52% of crude oil produced in the United States. This is not speculation or a prediction, this is a fact, as in something that has already occurred.
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=847&t=6 )
You are no longer making any sense.
Wow, you are pretty entertaining Glenn! What about “[Fracking 3.0] won’t solve the larger problem of the main oil suppliers need for a fairly high price level.” suggest that Kurt thinks he knows what the future price of oil will be? The mind boggles.
Glenn is deeply invested in shale stocks so he is just trying to talk up the price. He isn’t necessarily delusional just has vested interest. Maybe he is saving up for a Fast Eddy end-of-days party container of his own?
Shhhhhhh!!!! Don’t mention _______________ He seems to have disappeared…
“And you believe I spend “entirely too much time at the keyboard,” but Fast Eddy doesn’t? Do double standards much?” – That depends how much you add to the discussion. Gail, Tim, Kurt, Fast, Dolph, Adonis, Joel, JT, Norm and others post many well thought out long posts that make a person think. You can tell they think critically of our situation. If your posts are long and repeat claims that many on this blog either disagree with or are just plain wrong then, you are spending too much time on this blog and really should find a blog better suited to your way of thinking.
“If Gail spouts all the fact-free nonsense that gets repeated ad nauseaum on these threads” – If you don’t like Gails “fact-free nonsense” then leave.
+++++++++++++++ x 10000000000000000000000000000000
Greg Machala said:
Ah, but Gail doesn’t make a habit of spouting fact-free nonsense the way you do.
She is much more careful about what she says. But i suppose this is lost on you.
You WISH it was fact free nonsense. I can assure you what I post is quite factual.
I have grown to like Glenn. Its rather boring if we all agree. I think he has a point about the psychologies of those who are sure of doom. If one was crazy how would one know? In the end it comes back to this exponential growth and finite world. Even if every single piece of land had a gwahar under it in the end it would be consumed and quickly. There is no logical refutal of exponential growth and finite world.
Glenn in the end you must agree with increasing consumption and a finite supply you must run out?
I agree. We need a few Glenn’s on the site. The site can’t be just an echo chamber.
I am not fond of commenters who comment endlessly and know absolutely nothing. If they have some reasonable background knowledge, they can at least bring up points those who never come to the site have. Quite often I learn things from commenters who come from a very different perspective than the people who are convinced that everything I say is correct.
The spin out of the MSM is that shale and conventional players are in a battle to the death trying to destroy the other…
Apparently shale is ‘winning’ or so the story goes because they can make money at 50 bucks…
The thing is…
Shale is roughly 5% of all oil production — so even if shale could be profitable at 50 bucks (it’s not but let’s pretend) then ‘winning’ means bankrupting the entire conventional oil industry — the Saudis go bankrupt — the Russians — the Kuwaitis – Exxon – BP – Chevron etc…. everyone goes bankrupt – the conventional oil stays in the ground — and we run the world on shale.
http://www.bobcesca.com/files/2013/09/Duh-Winning-55132393261.png
Here is the big picture of historical oil price trends.
http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/images/charts/Oil/Inflation_Adj_Oil_Prices_Chart_650.jpg
It is iimportant to note how stable oil prices were up until the USA hit peak oil in the early 70s. Then, from about 1973 to the early 1980s oil was expensive. Then moderate levels of volatility set in 1986 to 2002. Then we hit another oil crunch from 2002 to 2008. After 2008 we see extreme oil price volatility. The trend I see here is the increasing levels of oil price volatility.
Some group (probably producers) want high prices. Another group (probably consumers) want low prices. Now more than ever we are seeing this paradox played out before our very eyes. Like a teeter-totter of oil prices. One day producers get there high price the next day consumers get their low price. It seems to me that the newer marginal oil plays are adding to the volatility. Whereas years ago the legacy conventional fields (that produced for decades) stabilized oil prices. Interest rates can only do so much to offset the ongoing volatility of the energy sector. At what point to producers throw in the towel? if interest rates rise this will add more pressure to already stressed producers and force them into bankruptcy.
I think before they throw in the towel Governments will start printing money like crazy to keep the oil companies pumping and people buying.
Oops sorry they already did that😳
Print MOAR MOOOAAARRRR!!!!
I think I saw an ad for volunteers willing to stick fingers in holes in the dyke….
http://dragonflycap.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Fingers-in-a-dyke.jpg
Another consideration once we recognize that money is a hold on energy is that as the system contracts from an energy perspective any value of embedded energy that can be recovered is consumed to subsidize the system. So for example many pension and retirement funds are now tied to the junk bond energy markets. If the Saudis get their way even more will with their IPO of Aramco. It’s sobering when we look at PEs of the S&P 500 money is being plowed into unprofitable companies like Amazon and Uber. At the same time these companies are gutting malls and taxis. All off it has increased efficiency by lowering costs to the consumer but no growth in real value. The overall picture is a system in contraction trading off elements to mask that fact.
“If the Saudis get their way even more will with their IPO of Aramco.”
Its a nice can kicking option – give the pension funds some investment “opportunity” to prop up consumer demand … one which does actually deliver needed Oil and let the Saudis start putting it on the credit card .. all to keep the show going a bit longer.
When its pretty obvious it means the show is coming to a close.
In one word: “Entropy”. We are doing battle with a cosmic force, and losing. It was always going to be this way and nothing we do will make a bit of difference.
JT said,
“When a shale oil producer calculates his cost of production he only includes direct cost. He doesn’t include indirect cost. Indirect cost includes the roads bridges cell service computers truck depreciation utility maintenance the agriculture to feed the rough necks the depreciation of the houses they live in.”
One other cost is that low interest rate policies on money causes retired non earning savers to spend their savings at a faster rate. This is a cost of BAU that has impoverished many and also taken personal money out of investments of many kinds. The CB’s have to backfill this shortage with more fiat debt. The CB’s have chosen to spend it, not the citizens. This is especially stark when negative interest rates come into play. Cannibalizing the personal wealth of the retired and frugal to keep the oil rigs drilling is a cost.
Agreed many are missing that fact. It’s all connected.
“Agreed many are missing that fact. It’s all connected.” – ++++++++ I am sure Gail would concur as well about the connected-ness.
It would be like Apple stating costs as : labour and parts and electricity to make an iphone — and stating that if the phones are sold at a dollar above those costs — Apple would be profitable.
It is bullshit.
This is a direct result of the fact that Oil is the master resource. It’s acquisition and subsequent burning makes everything else possible and so those who ignore this when calculating the cost of anything do so at their own peril. Nothing is as cheap as it seems without including the cost of the oil and everything else that oil makes possible. Even more ignored are the external costs (heat, pollution, climate change, entropy). Once all of these are factored in, nothing seems quite as cheap as it does before.
Following the ‘massive’ 1.2 billion barrel of oil find in Alaska – 12 days global supply worth — the biggest find in 30 years…
Today it was announced that an even bigger oil discovery has been made — as much as 10 billion barrels!!!! (100 days of supply…)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-03-14/the-monumentally-expensive-quest-to-pull-off-an-alaskan-oil-miracle
Isn’t this amazing — it’s like winning the lottery twice in one week!
The sheeple are reading this and believing a) it is not fake news b) that 10 billion barrels of oil must be enough to last us decades
Stay tuned — up next — we have found 10 new earth-like planets! — and later in the show Jesus Musk is going to tell us how he will solve Australia’s energy problems for 25 million dollars — then he will release details of plans to build a replica of New York city on Mars —- with the help of the ghost city experts in China
10 Billion? How exciting! I wonder how long that will take to burn? Perhaps I will try and get a job on the North Slope, I hear they are enjoying a record warm winter there and haven’t seen any polar bears. We’re saved! By the way, I didn’t know that Jesus was related to Elon Musk. He must be thrilled.
Nice post,
Retired and frugal isn’t that bad, hyper inflation that would be bad IMO. Keep on drilling…
The show Max Keiser with his ” interest rate apartheid ” comes to mind as well.
Old story Published time: 6 May, 2013 11:57
https://www.rt.com/op-edge/epithets-apartheid-racism-hatred-871/
“If you live on one side of the interest rate apartheid wall, your cost of capital is zero, and in some cases (like when Wall St. banks lend to the Fed), less than zero. Wall St. and City………… What about those living on the other side of the interest rate apartheid wall, ‘the epithets’ I’ll call them. This is you, me and everyone else (who is not a partner on Wall St. or the City). What do we pay? “
One thing I think is missing from this conversation is that money is a hold on future energy. The stability of its convertibility can either build or destroy economic activity. We have a lot of information about how inexpensive shale oil has become. Much of the conversation is blurred by using money as a proxy for energy. If instead you use energy for energy things are a little clearer.
When a shale oil producer calculates his cost of production he only includes direct cost. He doesn’t include indirect cost. Indirect cost includes the roads bridges cell service computers truck depreciation utility maintenance the agriculture to feed the rough necks the depreciation of the houses they live in. All those energy inputs have to be included in the true cost of production and more including government hospitals on and on. So that is why Charles Hall estimated that EROI has to be above 10 or even 30 to maintain the industrial economy we presently have.
If energy prices rise the effect is less future activity is available from present production. That is a reduction of EROI in real terms. As has been demonstrated debt growth compensates for this but like any study of Keynes reveals it can only help short term but long term money is net neutral. So what has already happened is external energy has been subsidizing the oil industry and there is no way out. Either the consumer is borrowing or the oil companies are borrowing from external inputs to keep the oil flowing.
At some point both production and consumption become tapped out. Meaning the external energy systems can no longer subsidize oil production. This is not a future event this is now. So what do consumers do? One thing is to raise the EROEI of existing resources since no low cost sources can be found. A way to do this is by raising the efficiency of oil producing nations by limiting their consumption and applying technology to their fields. This was done successfully in Iraq the population was reduced and continues to be with Depleted Uranium poisoning, and western oil majors have access to fields increasing their productivity.
If we naively think that wasn’t the reason for the Iraq war than answer this question. Why didn’t the government spend the trillions they did in that war on development of the shale industry? Just give it to the companies to produce the oil in the US. Because the EROEI of shale doesn’t work. The hydrocarbon chains are too short. It’s a bunch of poo.
If shale was profitable from an EROEI perspective the US would already be energy independent instead it is importing the same amount today as four years ago leading to a glut of poo oil in storage.
No matter how we measure it conventional oil is flat and declining. The trade offs have already been made. Growth is now impossible so what’s left is choose what to give up a car? A plane? A house? Why are young college grads back home with mom and dad? Why do millennials prefer experiences rather then things? Think about it.
Why are Greeks in the streets? Why are Teamsters in the streets? Why are Dallas cops cashing out of their pension funds? Etc.
The net EROEI of the system can’t maintain itself.
I agree JT. Diminishing returns is inescapable. It is interesting to note that when prices go up over $50.00 shale oil producers restart production. Conversely, when prices drop below $40.00 shale oil production stops. So, if Glenn is right and all new oil production is from shale oil then, all this new oil going into storage is expensive oil. The economies of the world cannot afford expensive oil so it piles up in storage. Zerohedge has a timely article on this current trend:http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-14/oil-plunge-accelerates-eia-now-expects-109kbpd-increase-april-shale-production
However, Glenn surely thinks it is a lie and shale oil is profitable at sub $40.00.
Also note… conventional oil is supposedly more expensive to extract than shale …. therefore if shale stops at 40 should conventional not also stop?
It remains unclear what the mechanism is that determines when different types of oil extraction stop and start — but it would appear that price and profitability are not the main determinants — in fact they probably have nothing to do with those decisions because virtually all oil production loses money at 40 bucks… and 50 bucks…
If not then shale and conventional would not be bleeding red ink….
Good post,
You said “The net EROEI of the system can’t maintain itself”
With the blend of old lower cost and subsidized new plays this may go on for some time, how long that is, could be a while IMO.
The Greek thing has been a long on going story, poor riot dog is no longer with us, yet the politicos still meet in fancy rooms.
Well the fancy rooms are part of the embedded energy of existing infrastructure. If we started today with no infrastructure (and with the current energy situation) could we find the energy to get enough water and food for ourselves, have productive jobs and rebuild it all? What about one city – could we rebuild Dallas or Houston? Every building, road, water line, gas line, electric line? There is an immense amount of embedded energy we take for granted. And all the “stuff” ages and needs replacing.
That’s my point Greg. Every day entropy increases the only way it can be reversed is by increasing it in another form this has been historically oil or coal. Gas and nuclear prolonged the oil system, renewables might have increased the decline rate. But all the time the clock keeps ticking on the deferred maintenance of our industrialized world.
Thanks I know that, even had some details made up for a Detroit post, sort of lost interest. Will be back with the Paris of the West Story…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit
Current research historical maps of my area, glad to see things calming down here.
I agree. Did post the Paris of the West story I had, though unfinished it went into moderation, should have edited out the recent Paris activities out.
Glad we have infrastructure in place, even if it cannot be maintained.
I think we’re past that. For example you can burn oil for heat unless it’s cheaper to use oil to dig coal. If you’ve noticed the energy price structure tends to balance itself on the equivalent btus of the fuels. So the EROEI of all sources are about even.
So right now if we could we would trade coal energy for oil energy but the net energy doesn’t work once you account for all inputs.
Not complete but did have something, have no idea how it will display, 8 day old text file attached:
In the time span of a human life, though 100 is quite a long one, things really can change. Living in the same state as Detriot but 190 miles away, its decay has intriqued me
100 years ago
1917 Detroit was once called the Paris of the West because of it’s beautiful architecture
https://www.pinterest.com/pin/194217802650140688/
Comparisions now vs 50 years ago
Detroit Re-Photography https://placesjournal.org/article/detroit-re-photography/?gclid=CNXbwoeiwtICFQ65wAodeq8By
More current from ZH – The Death And Decay Of Detroit, As Seen From The Streets
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-07/death-and-decay-detroit-real-time-seen-streets?page=1
France’s Death Spiral http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-05/frances-death-spiral
“February 2, 2017: A “no-go zone” in the eastern suburbs of Paris. Police on patrol hear screams. They decide to check. While there, a young man insults them. They decide to arrest him. He hits them. A fight starts. He accuses a policeman of having raped him with a police baton. A police investigation quickly establishes that the young man was not raped. But it is too late; a toxic process has begun.”
Decay and resource depletion
Those image comparisons are very sobering. They are a strong visual of the decline in net energy. Sometimes we humans think we are stewards of the Earth and forget we are children of the Earth. And as such we are limited as to the extent to which we can mold our environment.
In commemoration of the centenary of Detroit being called “the Paris of the West”, we start calling Paris “the Detroit of the West”.
The factual reality, however, is this: The EROEI using Fracking 2.0 and Fracking 3.0, combined with new and improved drilling technology, is much higher than the EROEI that was achieved using Fracking 1.0 and the older, less efficient drilling technology. And it is much less than the EROEI of high-cost conventional, deep-water offshore, Canadian tar sands, tertiary recovery projects, etc.
The EROEI using Fracking 3.0 and the most advanced drilling technology, nevertheless, is still far less than, for instance, the EROEI of extracting achieved by extracting oil from the East Texas Oil Field in 1931 or 1932.
I mean, my God, the East Texas Field was tantamount to this:
http://www.coastalcapitalwealth.com/news/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Texas-Gold-Beverly-Hillbillies.jpg
The main question is this: Can modern consumerist, capitalist economies run on the EROEI achieved by using Fracking 3.0 and the latest drilling technology?
Another question is this: Will there be enough oil produced using Fracking 3.0 and the latest drilling technology to make that shale barrel of oil the marginal barrel? Or will more expensive-to-extract oil be necessary to fulfill future demand?
My answer to these questions is: I don’t know.
Oops! Should have read:
And yet even with oil at what have been middling prices in historic, inflation-adjusted terms, shale states have fallen into recession. These shale patches don’t seem to be flushing the system with lots of juicy surplus energy:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-13/these-oil-states-entered-recession-while-rest-of-u-s-recovered
Gosh, those states with economies heavily dependent on the oil industry suffered during a year of extremely low oil prices.
Who would have ever thunk it?
Glenn ‘I am wrong therefore I exist’ Stehle speaks. But nobody is listening.
Fast Eddy,
Oh, I think plenty of people are listening. If they weren’t, you wouldn’t be going ballistic with all your histrionics.
” extremely low oil prices.”
Dear God, go back and read thru Gail’s previous posts. The more the better. Inform yourself. Then you’ll understand (one can hope) how utterly ridiculous the above statement is.
There are limits to the comments on each article — and we ran up against those on the last article — if Glenn would just disappear and stop posting nonsense — we’d not have that problem
My point is that those prices really weren’t low in historic terms, and yet still those states experienced recession – a clear illustration of the inadequate energy profit one gets from shale oil.
That point was — and remains – lost on Glenn.
Glenn does not deal in common sense or logic.
When addressing Glenn – if you want to waste your time — do so in a manner in which you would address a 4 year old — that is roughly the level he is operating on
Harry Gibbs,
And my point is that there has been a great deal of research and writing done on the resource curse, the Dutch disease and the staples theory. Your claim that “those states experienced recession” is “a clear illustration of the inadequate energy profit one gets from shale oil” is unmitigated bunk.
An excellent place to start on what happened in these states would bd the series of posts that The Progressive Economics Forum did on the Staple Theory:
Really, Glenn? You’re trying to argue that profligacy is the key dynamic here? I think it is the basic fact that IC was not set up to run on shale oil…
“I think it is the basic fact that IC was not set up to run on shale oil…”
I think you miss the flexibility of refineries and the fungible nature of energy. If light fractions shale oil was all we had, then whatever else we need can be made from that. It’s worth keeping in mind that we make diesel from natural gas.
Harry Gibbs says:
And you are violently certain of that prediction?
You offer yet one more example of someone who doesn’t know the difference between speculation and fact.
Energy may be fungible but the infrastructure it serves is not in real terms. We need lashings of cheap oil to maintain and grow IC. Shale is not cheap.
Oh my gosh, maybe I’ll get this right on the third try:
Back before things became heated I started a post, in jest mind you, which started like this:
Fracking 3.0 release notes
Releases > 3.0 release notes
Release date: Monday, 6th March 2017
————-
I thought you were kidding about this 3.0 stuff ?
I certainly do not know
Joel,
Anyone who doesn’t believe that there have been great advances made in drilling and fracking technology in the past couple of years is living in a fact-free fantasy world.
That, unfortunately, includes the apocalyptic religious fanatics who comment on this blog.
Here, for instance, is but one very specific example of a new drilling techology that has reduce the number of days required to drill a horizontal well. It’s called PowerDrive Archer RSS system, and it cut drilling time by six days:
https://s1.postimg.org/hphfls7vj/Captura_de_pantalla_1257.png
The net is this: Using this new drilling technology and many others, the number of rig days to drill a horizontal shale well is now about half what it was back in 2012.
http://www.pointlogicenergy.com/images/Duvernay-Encana-Drill-Time.jpg
And the greatly reduced number of rig days to drill a shale well doesn’t even touch upon the fact that wells completed using Fracking 3.0 are producing somewhere on average between 50% to 100% more than wells completed using Fracking 1.0
Ah, so it’s just like software, all we have to do is upgrade the features and complexity. I can’t wait for Fracking 10.0!
That reminds me of this weekend when I went to visit the farm I grew up on. We had an oil well drilled there in the early 80’s (Austin Chalk). I have always been fascinated with oil and its production since I was a kid. It has been producing for well over 30 years now. 5 to 10 barrels per day now. It started life producing about 200.
The pump jack is old and rusty now. It is powered by and electric motor. It moans and creaks a lot as it pumps from a mile long horizontal drill bore. It amazes me every time I hear the moans and creaks from that pump jack. Ironically, this pump jack, and many others like it, are what make technology possible.
So, for all the glory and splendour of complexity we enjoy today it really all boils down to this moaning creaking pump jack extracting the resources that make modern life possible. It really makes you realize how primitive we really are.
Yep…. but with shale you also drill far more holes — blast the rock — pump in chemicals and water and sand — and the wells produce for a couple of years — then they collapse to next to nothing …
And that is meant to be less costly than just drilling a hole and pumping from a reservoir.
Now if I were to let the heavy weight boxing champion hit me with his hardest right hand – 5 x over — and I survived — I would believe that. I’d believe anything.
I’m looking more forward to Glenn 10.0. So far he is not convincing anybody, and I find him to be guilty of all the things he wrongfully accuses us of. This is not a religion. Religion is supposed to make you feel good about yourself, whereas I have been through all 5 stages of a depression over this.
How magical that fracking costs were cut in half …. yet still there is a sea of red ink…..
The PR masters really pulled a quick one there …. how do we get more cash to prop up these dog plays?
Oh I know – let’s just tell the punters the costs are halved — they are now MUCH lower than the costs of conventional oil!!! They are so stupid that they will believe anything — so long as it’s spouted by CNBs Boomberg etc…
Technology, in the case of shale oil production, doesn’t reduce cost, you shyster.
Technology=throwing more energy and resources at a task.
Technology increases the capital requirements for shale oil production.
This added cost needs to be paid for with higher prices.
In a functional market, shale oil would not be priced at the same price as conventional oil.
The market economy , as Gail observed in her last post “Oops! The economy is like a self-driving car” , is NOT working properly.
The increase in U.S. oil production has not stimulated the global economy because…
demand is DOWN.
The falling prices of oil, AND OTHER COMMODITIES THAT ARE NOT ENERGY PRODUCTS, is not due to falling costs and increasing supply, but FALLING DEMAND.
Shale oil is being pumped out of the ground and is being STORED because there are very few people who can afford to consume the stuff.
I think the Quantitative Easing has confused you into thinking that shale oil was becoming more affordable.
Oil shale was known about for decades. The problem with using was not a lack of available technology to extract the oil.
What was holding back oil shale production wasn’t technology but COST. and CHEAP CREDIT. When the government started QE in 2009, this created significant demand for oil in developing countries. Demand allowed global oil prices to $4 a gallon.
At $4/ gallon and very low borrowing costs oil shale production became PROFITABLE.
Things get developed when they are PROFITABLE, not because “they figured out how to do it”
If you believe otherwise, you are telling us that you know no better than a layman–because that is what the average person believes. The average person, who knows nothing about economics or energy aside from what Reuters feeds them believes in the narrative of a non-existent technological miracle that underscores the Saudi America myth. You are not an informed person. You are not fooling anyone with you presumably fake prescription glasses and your fake mild-mannered appearance that you are a “Smart Person” on here.
PS. Posting a graph about the number of days it takes to drill to a area as “proof” of oil shale’s technological miracle is beyond stupid, “Glenn”
Drilling is not what make shale so expensive.
Stop with the stupid arguments.
Gail, I feel what I’ve had to say here, while it is not polite, needs to be said. Release the post, if you get the chance, I mean, like, if you feel like it.
Release the Post! Release the Post! Release the Post!
(especially if it mocks Glenn…)
Sorry, I sometimes get behind in looking at what gets caught by the filter.
Actually, I do think that the number of days it takes to drill a well has a bearing on one piece of costs–namely the rental of drilling equipment and the operators. It doesn’t say anything about a lot of other costs, such as fracking and lease cost, or tax levels.
And there may be a point about productivity also rising from the wells.
Our big issue today is the fact that world oil prices are too low for most producers, especially when a person factors in reasonable interest rates, and the tax levels needed by governments. Even if shale oil could be produced for current prices, it wouldn’t fix our overall oil problem. It certainly would not fix the problem we have with falling coal production (because of low prices), or the problem we have with natural gas prices too low. A person gets the distinct idea that our problem is an affordability problem, that is affecting many products at once.
Right .. but let’s look at the big picture:
A lot of reasons have been given as to why Saudi Arabia is allowing the oil price to not only fall but remain weak. Some suggest it’s because it’s seeking to harm emerging rivals like the U.S. and Russia.
Others have suggested that the move is because it wants to keep its regional rival Iran at bay. While both could be true, the reason Saudi Arabia isn’t worried about the oil price is because it doesn’t need a high oil price to justify the drilling costs needed to maintain or grow its production.
This is due to the fact Saudi Arabia only needed to drill 399 new wells last year just to keep its daily production at 11.4 million barrels of oil. That’s a simply jaw-dropping number when we compare it to its two closest rivals, which are detailed on the following slide from a Schlumberger Limited (NYSE:SLB) investor presentation.
As that chart demonstrates, Saudi Arabia needed to drill nearly 99% fewer wells than the U.S. needed last year to maintain its global production lead. To put that into perspective, at an average well cost of roughly $8 million for a shale well in the U.S., it would have cost U.S. oil companies roughly $285 billion to drill those 35,699 wells. Meanwhile, at that same $8 million well cost it would have cost Saudi Arabia just $3 billion to drill the 399 wells it needed.
That suggests at a $50 oil price nearly all of Saudi Arabia’s production is generating free cash flow, which the country can use for things other than drilling new oil wells.
Meanwhile, at that same price nearly half of the cash flow generated by U.S. oil production would need to be reinvested in new oil wells. It’s why Saudi Arabia makes so much money on oil while others don’t have a lot left over, especially now that oil prices are lower.
https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/07/12/this-jaw-dropping-slide-shows-why-saudi-arabia-mak.aspx
https://g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/172046/schlumberger-limited-saudi-arabia_large.jpg
Let me repeat this in case anyone missed it the first time:
To put that into perspective, at an average well cost of roughly $8 million for a shale well in the U.S., it would have cost U.S. oil companies roughly $285 billion to drill those 35,699 wells. Meanwhile, at that same $8 million well cost it would have cost Saudi Arabia just $3 billion to drill the 399 wells it needed.
Is anyone seriously going to try to argue that shale oil has a lower break-even cost than conventional?
If so then I have some ocean front land to sell you in Manitoba….
I am sure fewer wells to drill makes a significant difference in costs. There are clearly other kinds of costs involved. Manifa heavy oil field required 27 manmade islands and 41 miles of causeway. http://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/manifaheavycrude/ This is their big new site of added production. If Saudi Arabia had thought they could do better elsewhere, they most likely would have used another site.
Add to that, why Brexit? Why Trump?
‘If we naively think that wasn’t the reason for the Iraq war than answer this question. Why didn’t the government spend the trillions they did in that war on development of the shale industry? Just give it to the companies to produce the oil in the US. Because the EROEI of shale doesn’t work. The hydrocarbon chains are too short. It’s a bunch of poo.’
++++++
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Gail Tverberg said:
High-priced oil, however, was not Paul Volcker’s target. High-cost labor was.
Do you really believe that the FED would intentionally and deliberately set out to destory the profits of the IOCs (aka major oil companies)?
Here’s how Christian Parenti explains it in Lockdown America. The “crisis” that provoked Volker’s actions
The destruction of high oil prices, and the concomitant destruction of the Soviet economy (and Soviet Union), were unintended consequences of Volker’s war on people who have to work for a living.
Vockler, nor Reagan, had absolutely nothing to do with all the new production which, as a result of pure serendepity, just happened to be coming on line at the time.
The Reagan administration, nevertheless, was quick to take credit for the destruction of high oil prices, and the concomitant implosion of the Soviet economy:
To clarify, I should have said:
Your wry good at quoting very lengthy blocks of text, but are you capable of critical thinking? Can you make an argument about anything? Or is all you can do is post long blocks of quot d text that you don’t even understand?
Do you know how bad inflation was in the 70’s? Should the Fed just have let it go on unchecked? Here’s the thing, you are clinging for dear life to some specific narrative that fits your worldview, that enables BAU for you, that avoids you having to take a long hard look in the mirror. Read. Synthesize the information. Make sense of it. Then make your own arguments that stand on there own. The truth is out there, if you really want to see it. I think it’s obvious to most of us here that you don’t, can’t or won’t.
There is a fitting quote from George Orwell (1984) that really applies to the dialog here: “The further a society drifts from the truth, the more it will hate those that speak it. – George Orwell.
Greg-
Interesting quote, and I agree but who, on the world stage today, is speaking the truth?
Very few MSM types speak the truth and if a guest comes on that does they are silenced.
This is a classic:
Ah, that brings back memories. Used to love the guy, but eventually he stopped making sense.
timl2k11,
Pure ad hominem.
You just don’t do facts or sound logic, do you?
The fundamentalist religious fanatics on this site demonstrate over and over and over again that they are incapable of making an argument based on facts and sound logic.
It’s all cherry-picked data, or outright lies, and rhetological fallacies.
🙂 Yes, I hate facts. I ignore them whenever I can. And logic? Bleh! Not for me! Rationality is for fools. And clearly the Earth was made 6000 years ago. No problems here!
timl2k11,
Saying “the Earth was made 6000 years ago” is no different from all the fact-free nonsense that you spout.
Glenn — remember this?
http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/blog170209e.gif
Stop with the personal attacks already. I visit this blog to converse with other like-minded folks who think of the bigger picture. Surely there is another blog you can frequent that would accept your illogic.
Peak Prosperity.com would be a good start.
Fast Eddy, one cannot talk sensibly about shale oil with Glenn. It is like talking to a lawn mower – he just mows right over the facts and shreds them as if they do not exist. It is past time to just scroll over his comments. It just adds nothing to the discussion at hand.
Very much so.
Do we ignore him — or do we post this every time he posts?
http://www.icompositions.com/music/uploads/530/49674Dunce_Cap.png
Greg Machala says:
I agree.
That’s the only type of argument Fast Eddy is capable of, and he uses it ad infinitum.
If you would like the attacks to end then I recommend you shift to peakprosperity.com
Fast Eddy,
I don’t mind the attacks. Every one you make, it just represents one more opportunity to debunk the fact-free nonsense that you spew.
I can imagine that you are quite used to being ridiculed. You develop a thick skin after years of being mocked and ridiculed right?
What is amazing is that someone who is so consistently proved to be wrong — can still hold true to their illogical positions.
This is a tribute to idiocy. Idiocy is incredibly powerful.
FE, Greg, et al, Glenn is paID by his master on how many rebuttals he gets. So, the more you attack him, the more he makes. You cannot win over a guy who uses data from government or private organization who has vested interest in putting a positive picture (like shale companies) because those data are totally skewed or propagandize.
Do you want to argue or debate with me if I insist US unemployment is 4.9%? Do you think you will win over me if I were to keep on saying “you have no data to prove me wrong on the 4.9% rate”?
“FE, Greg, et al, Glenn is paid by his master on how many rebuttals he gets.”
He is a very naughty man if this is true, lol.
The thing is, you need an irritant like a grain of sand in order for a beautiful oyster to form. Contrarian viewpoints provoke the OFW commentariat into strengthening and refining its arguments. Without them this just turns into an echo-chamber, albeit an often interesting and insightful one.
That being said, it does feel a bit like we’ve exhausted the conversational possibilities afforded us by Glenn’s ‘shale is terrific’ shtick. Shale and the credit bubble that enabled it have kept the wolf from the door for a few years and for that I am eternally grateful – but it is not the future.
However — Glenn smells like a troll…. engaging him brings him gratification … it encourages him… it makes a mockery of the rest of us if we attempt to debate him … he laughs at us..
There are only two courses of action — ridicule him — or ignore him.
I tried the former — that did not work — so it’s now the latter…. if I see any comments in my inbox that involve his name — I tick tick tick tick tick — delete.
He does not exist.
++++++++
Don’t feed the troll
Here’s a projection of future US energy use. Everything is shrinking.
http://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-americas-changing-energy-mix-1970-2030/
Mother Nature does not take IOUs
Gail Tverberg said:
Rosenfelt agrees.
Low oil prices will eventually curtail investments in high-cost oil extraction projects. Because of the low investment, new oil supply coming on the market will eventually dry up. Markets will rebalnce without any help (supply reductions) from OPEC.
Glenn
Just curious do you read anything besides Rigzone? You do realize they have a specific audience. Have you ever read Manufacturing Consent? If the industrial oil companies said “hey guys were in liquidation” how long would it take for investors to be out the door. If you were a CEO what message would you spin one that increases or decreases your stock value? Are you really that naive?
JT Roberts,
I am a voracious reader. In case you haven’t noticed, I cite all kinds of sources.
The reason I cite notes from Rigzone is that it debunks the fact-free nonsense that people like you are so enamored of.
Facts, my friend, facts, not a bunch of specultion, theorizing, and fanataical end-times theology.
you forgot Eddy’s cache of 69 virgins
Norman Pagett,
You are another one that is so in love with your fanatical end-times theology that you have completely departed from factual reality.
if i was emperor of Rome
I would insist that you rode behind me in my chariot—whispering—remember you are but mortal
but on a more serious note—if you read what i write carefully, You won’t find any rants, because that is pointless
instead you will find verifiable facts, with an opinion on what they are likely to mean for our future, and thoughts on their origins.–but it is only an opinion, not a n excuse for pistols at dawn.
I leave it to others to agree or disagree–we all have slightly different futures to look forward to, except for the final curtain–no point in me caring about it one way or the other, i learned long ago that one cannot influence those who choose to differ for the sake of difference itself
if folks think we can have infinite growth while living on a sphere-that’s fine by me, or we can move to mars or proxima centauri–great, or that humankind can appropriate unlimited energy resources during the next 10 years by using methods as yet uninvented, contrary to the known laws of physics—one can only wish them well in thier endeavours.
but I think i can be allowed the position of joker in the pack of delusion.
I have to head over the library and get off this mobile device. Work out how to spend my day, play nice!
i! you put psychopaths in total control of your polity, economy and ‘society’, as occurs, inevitably, under capitalism, then you must self-destruct. Sane people have seen this catastrophe coming for millennia, but certainly in the last few decades as the evidence of a global cataclysm of Life destruction and pollution has become apparent. Yet the capitalists drive on, and under the most toxic form, so-called ‘Free Market’ capitalism (as here in Australia) a devilish death cum cargo-cult prevails in every aspect of life, predicated on the implicit belief that human existence is driven, motivated and mediated by GREED, and nothing more. The ‘economics’ produced by this ‘monoculture of the mind’, is ludicrous beyond belief, its predictions of a grand Arcadia on Earth NEVER come to pass, yet its adherents, like all true cultic fanatics, only ever assert that we need more and more and more of the very poison that is killing us.
M&M
Norman Pagett says:
I’m sure that’s true. All the tell tale signs — how violently certain you are in your assertions, how you so aggressively attack anyone who disagrees with your fanatical apocalyptic theology, etc. — are there.
I have absolutely no doubt that, like all fundamentalist religious fanatics, if you had any real political power that, just like John Calvin did, you would not hesitate for a moment to use it to the hilt in order to suppress dissent and prevent those facts that run counter to your fanatical apocalyptic religion from seeing the light of day.
https://s30.postimg.org/8wnexuozl/John_Calvin_Titian_B.jpg
nope
my beard is longer than that
as to aggressive attacks—if you care to browse back through my comments, I don’t think you’ll find any aggression anywhere—–I have tortured my subjects into confessing that to be true—they now can only nod in agreement because I have had their tongues cut out and poured superglue on their keyboards (with their fingers still attached of course).
But they have all seen the funny side, and unanimously elected me as head of the OFW Committee of the Inquisition. (under threat of excommunication from OFW and all its fringe benefits —Eddie’s virgins etc) burning at the stake would be the easy option.
And NOBODY expects the Spanish Inquisition.
And it’s not for me to propose a vote on who the ranter in chief is—though because this is a democracy, people are free to vote if they feel so inclined
“And NOBODY expects the Spanish Inquisition.”
Actually, you should. For well over a million years, when there were resource shortages, people would either attack the neighbors or go after some segment of their own population.
One of the earliest to recognize this was attributed to Pope Urban II. If you read the wikipedia article, it’s amazing how much the people around him anticipated evolutionary psychology.
you are appropriating one of my main themes
All wars are fought over resources, one way or another
“All wars are fought over resources” Agreed.
https://www.academia.edu/777381/Evolutionary_psychology_memes_and_the_origin_of_war
12 year old paper I wrote that’s being downloaded at around one copy a day for the last year.
The previous paper was Sex, Drugs and Cults. For those three words, it is at the top of google listing and has been since it was published.
It’s just happenstance that I wondered into the field while there was a lot of low hanging fruit.
Duncan Idaho says:
You Marxists have been predicting for more than 150 years the imminent self-destruction of capitalism.
You’re no different from the Christians, endlessly waiting around for the second coming of Christ.
I also cite a lot of empirical data from EIA and IEA (things that have already occurred), because again it blows all your distoritons, half-truths and outright lies out of the water.
“it blows all your distoritons, half-truths and outright lies out of the water.” – Specifically what statement(s) on this blog do you consider a lie, half-truth or distortion?
Do you consider this chart a lie:
https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/icbkDFACM4iA/v2/800x-1.png
Is this a lie too:
https://i1.wp.com/peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Bakken-North-Dakota.jpg
Is this too a lie:
http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/blog170209e.gif
Greg Machala,
Nice job of cherry picking data (and in some cases predictions, and not even facts, facts being things that have already occurred) to bolster your fanatical, fact-free apocalyptic theology.
EIA data, however, paints a very different picture.
If it gives you comfort for some reason to live in your fact-free world, by all means go for it. But don’t expect many others to buy into your, SRrocco’s and Peak Oil Barrel’s world of defacualzed nonsense.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W
https://s2.postimg.org/sc8v2yztl/Captura_de_pantalla_725.png
Glenn says: “Nice job of cherry picking data (and in some cases predictions, and not even facts, facts being things that have already occurred) to bolster your fanatical, fact-free apocalyptic theology.” Where are the predictions in these three charts? These are factual charts and graphs of things that have occurred. And the chart you refer to: “Weekly Production Of US Crude” is chopped off so you cannot see the big picture or “trend” as you call it. And that chart is NOT shale oil production, it is “Weekly Production of US Crude.” Here again is the full chart (from your approved source the eia) so you can see the tiny blip you refer to at the tail end of the chart on this page: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W
Greg Machala said:
The problems with the SRrocco chart have already been discussed at length here:
And here:
But hey, don’t let the facts get in the way of your religious zealotry.
Greg Machaca,
And you don’t like the tail end of the EIA chart?
Well here’s the whole chart. It all tells the same story, regardless of your insipid attempts at spin doctoring.
The EIA chart tells the whole, not the cherry picked data from the Bakken, which is by far the worst performing of the shale oil basins.
https://s22.postimg.org/hvduc8h4x/Captura_de_pantalla_721.png
Let’s not forget these two:
Chesapeake loses $4.8 billion in 2016
At the end of February, Chesapeake Energy announced it posted a net loss of $4.8 billion during 2016. The loss resulted from lower commodity prices, lower production values and a decrease in the value of the company’s oil and gas assets. Average daily production for the fourth quarter was around 574,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day, including 108,00 coming from the Utica shale play.
http://businessjournaldaily.com/chesapeake-reports-net-loss-of-4-8-billion-in-2016/
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES: Example Of What Is Horribly Wrong With The U.S. Shale Oil Industry
According to Continental Resources website, it labels itself as America’s oil champion. To be a champion, one is supposed to be winner. Unfortunately for Continental, it’s taking a serious beating and is a perfect example of what is horribly wrong with the U.S. Shale Oil Industry. During the beginning of the U.S. shale energy revolution,…
https://srsroccoreport.com/continental-resources-example-of-what-is-horribly-wrong-with-the-u-s-shale-oil-industry/
Fast Eddy,
The points you raise have already been discussed on these threads at length.
But hey man, I get it. For religious fanatics like you, no reality and no common sense will ever penetrate your mind.
Yes they have – and I just wanted to remind you that you are still wrong. You are still holding that DelusiSTANI passport. You remain the Jester of FW.
Say something ridiculous Glenn — dance for us… come on …. do a jig.
if he’s the jester, can i be lord high executioner?
If I fail I will pass the sword…
Glenn and Keith:
http://images.mentalfloss.com/sites/default/files/styles/article_640x430/public/dumb_lead.jpg
Fast Eddy,
Are ad hominem attacks the only arguments you are capable of making?
Here’s a test try to post something for the rest of this blog without using Rigzone.
What, stop posting factual information that lays waste to the little fantasy world you live in?
When donkeys fly.
Good grief, you have posted nothing that “lays waste” to the reality of exponential growth leading to resource depletion. You must believe in perpetual motion machines too.
wrong anyway
the correct analogy is ”when pigs fly”
Greg Machala,
Do you fundamentalist religious fanatics know how to make an honest argument?
I ask this because now you are engaging in nothing more than staw manning.
Have I ever stated that exponentail growth is possible? Have I ever stated that resource depletion is not a problem?
Can you show me one single example of where I have said those things?
Just stop it with all your distortions, half-truths and outright lies.
Norman Pagett says:
Norman,
In your insatiable desire to score points, is there no limit to your pettiness, or your propensity to make empirical claims that are not entirely true, and can be so easily be demonstrated not to be true?
Glenn, what are we supposed to think of someone who doesn’t see that tight oil is desperation, fueled by a massive debt bubble? The only conclusion is that you are clueless and you don’t even realize it. You’re part of the “easy money will save us” religious cult.
timl2k11.
Are you really so full of yourself and so in love your fanatical end-times theology that you are completely blinded to the difference between facts and your own opinions and pet theories?
“fundamentalist religious fanatics ” – For the record, I am atheist.
Greg Machala says:
Right.
Atheists labor under this delusion that they are the opposite of traditional religionists.
But atheists are not the opposite of the traditional religionists, they are the mirror image.
The opposite of the traditional religionist and the atheist is the agnostic.
New Rule:
When you see in your inbox – Glenn Stehle commented.
Do not open — tick the delete box for all comments – then delete.
It does not give him a chance to be wrong – therefore he does not exist.
I see.
Glenn – you have the intellect of a donkey — does that make you a donkey? Can you fly?
Fast Eddy,
Are ad hominem attacks the only type of argument you are capable of?
The thing is…
I do not respect your intellect — therefore I will not bother to engage you in debate — because all you do is regurgitate spin from the Ministry of Truth.
If you pay me then I will pretend to engage you as if I respect your intellect. Let me know and I will pass you my account details.
Otherwise the only use I have for you is to entertain me.
Dancing.. singing… telling jokes… making a fool of yourself….
I’d have to fill my wine chalice if you were not a digital court jester….
Come on Glenn…. dance for us…
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-l7Ur3oV-9MU/TzL5v8xqGpI/AAAAAAAAAKI/n_-32nMFgSI/s1600/SixFlagsOldMan.jpg
Can you do this?
http://cdn0.techly.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/AssLight-990×620.jpg
And by the way, I don’t know about donkeys, but elephants can fly:
Glen has spoketh: “I am a voracious reader. In case you haven’t noticed, I cite all kinds of sources.”
Quantity over quality, eh? Not my cup of tea. Reading isn’t enough. Critical thinking, an insatiable curiosity, and being able to connect the dots are what is required. Try that. Question everything you think you know.
timl2k11,
What, “question everything” that doesn’t square with your fundamentalist, apocalyptic religion?
I think I’ll pass. Defactualized religious zealotry and intolerance were never my cup of tea.
If one reads but does not learn anything — what does that make one?
Glenn – the trouble with your “facts” argument is that you can only look backwards.
BY your logic Norman will only be justified in his opinion once the collapse has been and gone.
but will anyone be around to notice
unravel,
You do know the difference between facts (things which have alredy happened) and speculation (a guess or prediction about what might happen in the future)?
The two are quite different, and should not be conflated, even though many people believe in all earnestness that the results of their speculations posess the same kind of validity as the results of cognitive processes.
Gail Tverberg said:
Again, it seems that, in the long run, and it is important to note that this is true if we are speaking of in the long run, Rosenfelt agrees.
Russia is really an influential energy player, will be interesting how things play out. Another cool morning 18F, still like cheap gas for heat, and the potential risk of a price war!
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