World GDP in current US dollars seems to have peaked; this is a problem

World GDP in current US dollars is in some sense the simplest world GDP calculation that a person might make. It is calculated by taking the GDP for each year for each country in the local currency (for example, yen) and converting these GDP amounts to US dollars using the then-current relativity between the local currency and the US dollar.

To get a world total, all a person needs to do is add together the GDP amounts for all of the individual countries. There is no inflation adjustment, so comparing GDP growth amounts calculated on this basis gives an indication regarding how the world economy is growing, inclusive of inflation. Calculation of GDP on this basis is also inclusive of changes in relativities to the US dollar.

What has been concerning for the last couple of years is that World GDP on this basis is no longer growing robustly. In fact, it may even have started shrinking, with 2014 being the peak year. Figure 1 shows world GDP on a current US dollar basis, in a chart produced by the World Bank.

Figure 1. World GDP in “Current US Dollars,” in chart from World Bank website.

Since the concept of GDP in current US dollars is not a topic that most of us are very familiar with, this post, in part, is an exploration of how GDP and inflation calculations on this basis fit in with other concepts we are more familiar with.

As I look at the data, it becomes clear that the reason for the downturn in Current US$ GDP is very much related to topics that I have been writing about. In particular, it is related to the fall in oil prices since mid-2014 and to the problems that oil producers have been having since that time, earning too little profit on the oil they sell. A similar problem is affecting natural gas and coal, as well as some other commodities. These low prices, and the deflation that they are causing, seem to be flowing through to cause low world GDP in current US dollars.

Figure 2. Average per capita wages computed by dividing total “Wages and Salaries” as reported by US BEA by total US population, and adjusting to 2016 price level using CPI-Urban. Average inflation adjusted oil price is based primarily on Brent oil historical oil price as reported by BP, also adjusted by CPI-urban to 2016 price level.

While energy products seem to be relatively small compared to world GDP, in fact, they play an outsized role. This is the case partly because the use of energy products makes GDP growth possible (energy provides heat and movement needed for industrial processes), and partly because an increase in the price of energy products indirectly causes an increase in the price of other goods and services. This growth in prices makes it possible to use debt to finance goods and services of all types.

A decrease in the price of energy products has both positive and negative impacts. The major favorable effect is that the lower prices allow the GDPs of oil importers, such as the United States, European Union, Japan, and China, to grow more rapidly. This is the effect that has predominated so far.

The negative impacts appear more slowly, so we have seen less of them so far. One such negative impact is the fact that these lower prices tend to produce deflation rather than inflation, making debt harder to repay. Another negative impact is that lower prices (slowly) push companies producing energy products toward bankruptcy, disrupting debt in a different way. A third negative impact is layoffs in affected industries. A fourth negative impact is lower tax revenue, particularly for oil exporting countries. This lower revenue tends to lead to cutbacks in governmental programs and to disruptions similar to those seen in Venezuela.

In this post, I try to connect what I am seeing in the new data (GDP in current US$) with issues I have been writing about in previous posts. It seems to me that there is no way that oil and other energy prices can be brought to an adequate price level because we are reaching an affordability limit with respect to energy products. Thus, world GDP in current dollars can be expected to stay low, and eventually decline to a lower level. Thus, we seem to be encountering peak GDP in current dollars.

Furthermore, in the years ahead the negative impacts of lower oil and other energy prices can be expected to start predominating over the positive impacts. This change can be expected to lead to debt-related financial problems, instability of governments of oil exporters, and falling energy consumption of all kinds.

Peak Per Capita Energy Consumption Is Part of the Problem, Too

One problem that makes our current situation much worse than it might otherwise be is the fact that world per capita energy consumption seems to have hit a maximum in 2013 (Figure 3).

World daily per capita energy consumption

Figure 3. World Daily Per Capita Energy Consumption, based on primary energy consumption from BP Statistical Review of World Energy and 2017 United Nations population estimates.

Surprisingly, this peak in consumption occurred before oil and other energy prices collapsed, starting in mid-2014. At these lower prices, a person would think that consumers could afford to buy more energy goods per person, not fewer.

Per capita energy consumption should be rising with lower prices, unless the reason for the fall in prices is an affordability problem. If the drop in prices reflects an affordability problem (wages of most workers are not high enough to buy the goods and services made with energy products, such as homes and cars), then we would expect the pattern we are seeing today–low oil and other energy prices, together with falling per capita consumption. If the reason for falling per capita energy consumption is an affordability problem, then there is little hope that prices will rise sufficiently to fix our current problem.

One consideration supporting the hypothesis that we are really facing an affordability problem is the fact that in recent years, energy prices have been too low for companies producing oil and other energy products. Since 2015, hundreds of oil, natural gas, and coal companies have gone bankrupt. Saudi Arabia has had to borrow large amounts of money to fund its budget, because at current prices, tax revenues are too low to fund it. In the United States, investors are cutting back on their support for oil investment, because of the continued financial losses of the companies and evidence that approaches for mitigating these losses are not really working.

Which Countries Are Suffering Falling GDP in Current US Dollars?

With lower oil prices, Saudi Arabia is one of the countries with falling GDP in Current US$.

Figure 4. Increase in GDP since 1990 for Saudi Arabia in current US dollars, based on World Bank Data.

Saudi Arabia pegs its currency to the dollar, so its lower GDP is not because its currency has fallen relative to the US dollar; instead, it reflects a situation in which fewer goods and services of all kinds are being produced, as measured in US dollars. GDP calculations do not consider debt, so Figure 4 indicates that even with all of Saudi Arabia’s borrowing to offset falling oil revenue, the quantity of goods and services it was able to produce fell in both 2015 and 2016.

Other oil-producing countries are clearly having problems as well, but data is often missing from the World Bank database for these countries. For example, Venezuela is clearly having problems with low oil prices, but GDP amounts for the country are missing for 2014, 2015, and 2016. (Somehow, world totals seem to include estimates of the total omitted amounts, however.)

Figure 5 shows similar ratios to Figure 4 for a number of other commodity producing countries.

Figure 5. GDP patterns, in US current dollars, for selected resource exporting countries, based on World Bank data.

A comparison of Figures 4 and 5 shows that the GDP patterns for these countries are similar to that of Saudi Arabia. Because resources (including oil) do not account for as large a share of GDP for these countries as for Saudi Arabia, the peak as a percentage of 1990 GDP isn’t quite as high as for Saudi Arabia. But the trend is still downward, with 2014 typically the peak year.

We can also look at similar information for the historically big consumers of oil, coal and natural gas, namely the United States, the European Union, and Japan.

Figure 6. Increase in GDP since 1990 for the United States, the European Union, and Japan, in current US dollars, based on World Bank data.

Here, we find the growth trend is much more subdued than for the countries shown in the previous two charts. I have purposely put the upper limit of the scale of this chart at 6 times the 1990 GDP level. This limit is similar to the upper limit on earlier charts, to emphasize how much more slowly these countries have been growing, compared to the countries shown in Figures 4 and 5.

In fact, for the European Union and Japan, GDP in current US$ is now lower than it has been in recent years. Figure 6 is telling us that the goods and services produced in these countries are now lower in US dollar value than they were a few years ago. Since part of the cost of goods and services is used to pay wages, this lower relativity indirectly implies that the wages of workers in the EU and Japan are falling, relative to the cost of buying goods and services priced in US dollars. Thus, even apart from taxes added by these countries, consumers in the EU and Japan have been falling behind in their ability to buy energy products priced in US dollars.

Figure 6 indicates that the United States has been doing relatively better than the European Union and Japan, in terms of the value of goods and services produced each year continuing to grow. If we look back at Figure 2, however, we see that even in the US, wage growth has lagged far behind oil price increases. Thus, the US was also likely headed toward an affordability problem relating to goods and services made with oil.

The Asian exporting nations have been doing relatively better in keeping their economies growing, despite the downward pressure on energy prices.

Figure 7. Increase in GDP since 1990 for selected rapidly growing Asian exporting countries in current US dollars, based on World Bank data.

The two most rapidly growing countries are China and Vietnam. There seems to be a recent slowing of their growth rates, but no actual downturn.

India, Pakistan, and the Philippines are growing less rapidly. They do not seem to be experiencing any downturn at all.

Considering the indications of Figure 4 through 7, it appears that only a relatively small share of countries have experienced rising GDP in current US dollars. Although we have not looked at all possible groupings, the countries that seem to be doing best in terms of rising current US$ GDP are countries that are exporters of manufactured goods, including the Asian countries shown. Countries that derive significant GDP from producing energy products and other commodities seem to be experiencing falling GDP in current US dollars.

To fix the problems shown here, we would need to get prices of oil and other energy products back up again. This would indirectly raise prices of many other products as well, including food, new vehicles, and new homes. With lagging wages in many countries, this would seem to be virtually impossible to accomplish.

The Wide Range of GDP Indications We See 

In this post, I am talking about GDP of various countries, converted to a US$ basis. This is not quite the same as the GDP that we normally read about. It is not until a person starts working with world data that a person appreciates how different the various GDP and inflation calculations are.

GDP in US dollars is very important because energy products, including oil, are generally priced in US$. This seems to be true, whether or not the currency used in the actual transaction is US$. See Appendix A for charts showing the close connection between these two items.

The type of GDP is generally reported is inflation-adjusted (also called “real”) GDP. The assumption is made that no one will care (very much) about inflation rates. In general, inflation-adjusted GDP figures are much more stable than those in Current US$. This can be seen by comparing world GDP in Figure 8 with that shown in Figure 1.

Figure 8. GDP in 2010 US dollars, for the world and for the United States, based on World Bank data.

Using inflation-adjusted world GDP data, there doesn’t seem to be any kind of crisis ahead. The last major problem was in the 2008-2009 period. Even the impact of this crisis appears to be fairly small. The 2008-2009 crisis shows up more distinctly in the Current US$ amounts plotted in Figure 1.

World GDP growth figures that are published by the World Bank and others combine country by country data using some type of weighting approach. Economists tend to use an approach called Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). This approach gives a great deal more weight to developing nations than the US dollar weighted approach used elsewhere in this post. For example, under the PPP approach, China seems to get a weighting of about 1.9 times its GDP in US$; India seems to get a weighting of about 3.8 times its GDP in US$. The United States gets a weight of 1.0 times its GDP in US$, and the weights for developed nations tend to be fairly close to 1.0 times their GDP in US$. The world GDP we see published regularly should be called “inflation-adjusted world GDP, calculated with PPP weights.”

The relationship among the three types of GDP can be seen in Figure 9. It is clear that GDP growth in Current US$ is far more variable than the inflation-adjusted growth rate (in 2010 US$). PPP inflation-adjusted GDP growth is consistently higher than GDP growth with US dollar weighting.

Figure 9. World GDP Growth in three alternative measures: Current dollars, Inflation-adjusted GDP is in 2010 US$ and adjusted to purchasing power parity (PPP).

It is also clear from Figure 9 that there is also a big “Whoops” in the most recent years. Economic growth is at a record low level, as calculated in Current US$.

World “Inflation” Indications

The typical way of calculating inflation is by looking at prices of a basket of goods in a particular currency, such as the yen, and seeing how the prices change over a period of time. To get an inflation rate for a group of countries (such as the G-20), inflation rates of various countries are weighted together using some set of weights. My guess is that these weights might be the PPP weights used in calculating world GDP.

In Figure 10, I calculate implied world inflation using a different approach. Since the World Bank publishes World GDP both in 2010 US$ and in Current US$, I calculate the implied world inflation rate by comparing these two sets of values. (Some people might call what I am calculating the implicit price deflator for GDP, rather than an inflation rate.) I use three-year averages to smooth out year-to-year variability in these amounts.

Figure 10. World inflation rate calculated by comparing reported World GDP in Current US$ to reported World GDP in 2010 US$. Both of these amounts are available at the World Bank website.

The implied world inflation rates using this approach are fairly different from published inflation rates. In part, this is because the calculations take into account changing relativities of currencies. There may be other factors as well, such as the inclusion of countries that would not normally be included in aggregations. Inflation rates tend to be high when demand for energy products is high, and low when demand for energy products is low.

Figure 10 shows that, on a world basis, there have been negative inflation rates three times since 1963–in approximately 1983-1984; in the late 1990s to early 2000s; and since about 2014. If we compare these dates to the oil price and energy consumption data on Figures 2 and 3, we see that these time periods are ones that are marked by falling per capita energy consumption and by low oil prices. In some sense, these are the time periods when the economy is/was trying to stall, for lack of adequate demand for oil.

The workaround used to “fix” the lack of demand in the late 1990s to early 2000s seems to have been an increased focus on globalization. China’s growth in particular was very important, because it added both a rapidly growing supply of cheap energy from coal and a great deal of demand for energy products. The addition of coal effectively lowered the average price of energy products so that they were again affordable by a large share of the world population. The availability of debt to pull the Chinese and other Asian economies forward was no doubt of importance as well.

The United States has been fairly protected from much of what has happened because its currency, the US Dollar, is the world’s reserve currency. If we look at the inflation rate of the United States using data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the last time the United States had a substantial period of contracting prices was in the US Depression of the 1930s. It is quite possible that such a situation existed worldwide, but I do not have world data for that period.

Figure 11. US inflation rate (really “GDP Deflator”) obtained by comparing US GDP in 2009 US$ to GDP in Current US $, based on US Bureau of Economic Analysis data.

It was during the Depression of the 1930s that debt defaults became widespread. It was only through deficit spending, including the significant debt-based funding for World War II, that the problem of inadequate demand for goods and services was completely eliminated.

How Do We Solve Our World Deflation Crisis This Time 

There seem to be three ways of creating demand for goods and services.

[1] A growing supply of cheap-to-produce energy products is really the basic way of increasing demand through economic growth.

If there are cheap-to-produce energy products available, a growing supply of these energy products can be used to increasingly leverage human labor, through the use of more and better “tools” for the workers. When workers become increasingly more productive, their wages naturally rise. It is this growing productivity of human labor that generally produces the rising demand needed to maintain the economic growth cycle.

As growth in energy consumption slows and then declines (Figure 3), this productivity growth tends to disappear. This seems to be part of today’s problem.

[2] Increasing the amount of debt outstanding can work to make the energy extraction system work more effectively, by raising the price that consumers can afford to pay for high-priced goods.

This increasing ability to pay for high-priced goods seems to come in two ways:

(a) The debt itself can be used to pay for goods, making these goods more affordable on a month-to-month or year-to-year basis.

(b) Increased debt can lead to increased wages for wage earners, because some of the increased debt ultimately goes to create new jobs and to pay workers. Figure 12 shows the positive association that increasing debt seems to have with inflation-adjusted wages in the United States.

Figure 12. Growth in US Wages vs. Growth in Non-Financial Debt. Wages from US Bureau of Economics “Wages and Salaries.” Non-Financial Debt is discontinued series from St. Louis Federal Reserve. (Note chart does not show a value for 2016.) Both sets of numbers have been adjusted for growth in US population and for growth in CPI Urban.

Debt is, in effect, the promise of future goods and services made with energy products. These promises are often helpful in allowing an economy to expand. For example, businesses can issue bonds to provide funds to expand their operations. Selling shares of stock acts in a manner similar to adding debt, with repayment coming from future operations. In both cases, the payback can occur, if energy consumption is in fact growing, allowing the output of the business to expand as planned.

Once world leaders decide that debt levels are too high, or need to be controlled better, we are likely headed for trouble, because debt can be very helpful in “pulling the economy forward.” This is especially the case if productivity growth is low because per capita energy consumption is falling.

[3] Rebalancing of currency relativities to the US dollar.

Rebalancing currencies to different levels relative to the dollar seems to play a major role in determining the “inflation rate” calculated in Figure 10. Currency rebalancing also plays a major role in determining the shape of the GDP graph in current US$, as shown in Figure 1. In general, the higher the average relativity of other currencies to the US$, the higher the demand for goods and services of all kinds, and thus the higher the demand for energy products.

One problem in recent years is that, in some sense, the average relativity of other currencies to the US dollar has fallen too low. The fall in relativities took place when the US discontinued its use of Quantitative Easing in late 2014.

Figure 13. Monthly Brent oil prices with dates of US beginning and ending QE.

The price of oil and of other energy products dropped steeply at that time. In fact, in inflation-adjusted terms, oil prices had been falling even prior to the end of QE. (See Figure 2, above.) The shift in the currency relativities made oil and other energy products more expensive for citizens of the European Union, Japan, and most of the commodity producing countries shown in Figures 4 and 5.

The ultimate problem underlying this fall in average relativities to the US dollar is that there is now a disparity between the prices that consumers around the world can afford to pay for energy products, and the prices that businesses producing energy products really need. I have written about this problem in the past, for example in Why Energy-Economy Models Produce Overly Optimistic Indications.

At this point, none of the three approaches for solving the world’s deflation problem seem to be working:

[1] Increasing the supply of oil and other energy products is not working well, because diminishing returns has led to a situation where if prices are high enough for producers, they are too high for consumers to afford the finished goods made with the energy products.

[2] World leaders have decided that we have too much debt and, indeed, debt levels are very high. In fact, if energy prices continue to be low, a significant amount of debt currently outstanding will probably be defaulted on.

[3] Countries generally don’t want to raise the exchange rates of their currencies to the dollar, because lower exchange rates tend to encourage exports. If the United States raises its interest rates, either directly or by selling its QE bonds, the level of the US dollar can be expected to rise relative to other currencies. Thus, other currencies are likely to fall even lower than they are today, relative to the US dollar. This will tend to make the problem with low oil prices (and other energy prices) even worse than today.

Thus, there seems to be no way out of our current predicament.

Conclusion

The world economy is in a very precarious situation. Many of the world’s economies have found that, measured in current US$, the goods and services they are producing are less valuable than they were in 2013 and 2014. In particular, all of the oil exporting nations have this problem. Many other countries that are producing commodities have the same problem.

Governments around the world do not seem to understand the situation we are facing. In large part, this is happening because economists have built models based on their view of how the world works. Their models tend to leave out the important role energy plays. GDP growth and inflation estimates based on PPP calculations give a misleading view of how the economy is actually operating.

We seem to be sleepwalking into an even worse version of the Depression of the 1930s. Even if economists were able to figure out what is happening, it is not clear that there would be a good way out. Higher energy prices would aid energy producers, but would push energy importing nations into recession. We seem to be facing a predicament with no solution.

Appendix 

Growing Inflation-Adjusted GDP Comes From Growing Energy Consumption

We often hear that GDP no longer depends on energy consumption, but this simply is not true. Energy consumption is needed for practically every industrial process, because energy causes the physical transformations that are need (including heat, light, and movement). Even services that only require a lighted, air-conditioned office and the use of computers require energy consumption of some type.

An industrialized country can outsource manufacturing of many of its goods to other countries, but the need for energy products goes with this outsourcing. The transfer of manufacturing to lesser developed countries tends to stimulate building in these countries. As a result, on a world basis, the amount of energy consumed tends to remain close to unchanged.

Using data for 1965 through 2016, we find the following relationship between inflation-adjusted world GDP and world energy consumption:

Figure A1. World growth in energy consumption vs. world GDP growth. Energy consumption from BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2017. World GDP is GDP in US 2010$, as compiled by World Bank.

Another way of displaying the same data is as an X, Y graph. A very high long-term correlation can be observed on this basis.

Figure A2. X-Y graph of world energy consumption (from BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2017) versus world GDP in 2010 US$, from World Bank.

This high level of correlation can be seen for other groupings as well. For example, for the grouping Middle East and North Africa, there is a high level of correlation between energy consumption and GDP.

Figure A3. X-Y graph showing correlation between energy consumption and GDP in the Middle East and North Africa.

If a person calculates the implications of this fitted line, energy consumption for these oil-producing countries is actually growing faster than inflation-adjusted GDP for these countries. This type of trend is to be expected if oil-producing countries are in some sense becoming less efficient in producing oil. This could happen for a number of reasons. One is that the easiest to extract oil is extracted first, leaving the more expensive to extract oil to be extracted later. Another possible reason for this trend is rising human populations in oil producing countries. These people drive cars and live in air conditioned buildings, driving up energy consumption for these countries. Whatever the cause, this loss of efficiency in oil production can be expected to at least partially offset growing efficiencies elsewhere in the system.

 

 

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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2,988 Responses to World GDP in current US dollars seems to have peaked; this is a problem

  1. Cliffhanger says:

    How To Position For A USD Collapse. Put simply, this chart is telling us that the USD is going to collapse in the coming months.
    https://www.investing.com/analysis/how-to-position-for-a-usd-collapse-200210476

    • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

      one month until October!

      look out below!

    • ejhr2015 says:

      I trust you take little notice of such stuff and nonsense. You can’t make a trend out of micro movements in rates. That’s just stuffing to fill air time. If the USD were to collapse it would take a serious event, much greater than the GFC. Confidence in the US $ is still pretty high.

  2. Yoshua says:

    I never felt that I was part of this world. I know that I am made of the same stuff as the stars. The universe isn’t just something out there, it stretches within me. I am the universe.
    Still… I never felt that I was part of this world.

    • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

      oh, that should be of no concern.

      we didn’t exist for the first 13.7 billion years of this universe.

      and of course, soon we are all headed for the nothingness of eternal deth.

      we could reach our end because of The Collapse.

      or go some other way.

      but for sure: The Universe is indifferent to our situation.

      Cheers!

    • muchly2long says:

      “Seek and you will find, and when you find, at first you will be disturbed. But after, you will be astonished, and then you will reign over all, AND YOU WILL NOT TASTE DEATH.”

      “Today a young man on acid realized that all matter is merely energy condensed to a slow vibration, that we are all one consciousness experiencing itself subjectively, there is no such thing as death, life is only a dream, and we are the imagination of ourselves. Here’s Tom with the Weather.”

      “My father’s house has many rooms”. Christ talking about the multiverse.

      • xabier says:

        Those who participated in the Mysteries of Eleusis -one of the most important initiatory religions of the Ancient world – emerged with the conviction that ‘death was no longer to be feared’ in the Journey of the Soul.

        It seems very likely that the Nordic peoples also held similar beliefs, which one can just discern in the myth material relating to the goddess Freya, the ‘Maiden with the Mead’ who will await us in the Invisible World, or Hell.

        Maria Kvilhaug from Norway has published excellent material on this, from the comparative religion point of view: the mystical religions of the Ancient Persians, the Greeks, the Sami, the Nordic peoples, all one…..

        One just has to side-step the monotheistic religions of the Middle East, with their truly perverted, fear-mongering, notion of eternal Hell-fire and damnation after a life which for most of our ancestors lasted only 20 years or less – a ridiculous concept!

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Here’s an idea for a new religion:

          Burial Rites:

          The body is put in a hole in the ground and covered with compost — a fruit tree is planted in the hole — the fruit tree grows and absorbs the nutrients from the dead body —- a child picks and apple from the tree and eats it — you live on through the child.

          Quite a comforting thought – no?

          Be sure to drop some money in the donation box on the way out of the Church of Fast Eddy

      • Yorchichan says:

        “Today a young man on acid realized that all matter is merely energy condensed to a slow vibration, that we are all one consciousness experiencing itself subjectively, there is no such thing as death, life is only a dream, and we are the imagination of ourselves. Here’s Tom with the Weather.”

        Been there, done that. I’ve experienced total bliss and been in hell too. Death is far closer to bliss than life is.

  3. Cliffhanger says:

    The U.S. stock is rigged beyond definition. By this I mean that interference with the stock market by the Federal Reserve in conjunction with the U.S. Government via the Treasury’s Working Group on Financial Markets – collectively, the “Plunge Protection Team” – via “quantitative easing” and the Exchange Stabilization Fund has destroyed the natural price discovery mechanism that is the hallmark of a free market. Capitalism does not work without free markets.
    http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/stock-market-what-stock-market/

    • Greg Machala says:

      “Capitalism does not work without free markets.” – and BAU doesn’t work without the markets, the corporations and their profits. So, the FED’s job is to do whatever it takes to guard against another financial crisis. Yellen even said it won’t be allowed to happen on here watch. No more recessions. Everybody has their head in the sand on purpose.

      • Duncan Idaho says:

        Capitalism has never worked without a strong central State to enforces its rules, from its emergence in the 15th Century Italian City States, to our current neo liberal phase of end stage collapse.

        • greg machala says:

          I read somewhere that Communism and Capitalism both lead to ruin but Communism just takes longer.

          • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

            USSR

            1917-1991

            RIP

            • Duncan Idaho says:

              A bit heavy handed for sure.
              But they did go from a place where 70% of the population were serfs, to putting a man in space in 50 years.

            • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

              they had oil.

              they (Russia) have oil.

          • Duncan Idaho says:

            Never had communism, so we don’t know (in the Marxian model, where workers controlled the decision making– or “dictatorship of the proletariat” , which always initiates a knee jerk reaction.)
            I always thought Marx a optimist, and a bit neuro science naive.
            But it was his analysis of capitalism that proved he had a time machine.

            Capitalism— From the 15th Century on, a robust model.
            All you need is a continually expanding resource base, and a population willing to be exploited.

  4. muchly2long says:

    It would be interesting to see the best site that demolishes AGW, if it is indeed wrong. I am specifically asking Beavis and Butthead not to respond to this, as the former, with his imitation of an irritating teenager repeating MOR_E~ON ad infinitum, amongst other silly insults, is bringing this site low.

    • Lastcall says:

      It can be hard to use scientific data to disprove a scientific ‘fact’ in the same way it can be hard to disprove the existence of a ‘g.od’ using only the literature of the Bi.ble. Does that make sense?

      By ring fencing the conversations many disciplines make it impossible to debate in a logical way. Economics uses mathiness and dodgy modelling to obscure their arguments. Their failings are out in full sight, but they insist on their veracity.

      Remember the Titanic was unsinkable on paper – how could you argue with the designers, and yet!

      I certainly believe the burning of fossil fuels has altered our environment (how can it not?) but there is far too much smoke, blame and money tied up here to justify the self-righteousness of the AGW truthers.

      Lies, damn lies and statistics anyone.

      • Lastcall says:

        Guess I am saying that AGW remains a theory – a well argued one that the massaging of data has sort of supported. But then the Earth was flat for aoens, and was supported by the ‘facts’ of the Bi.ble and the cheerleading of the beneficiaries. The occasional eclipse (flooding anyone..?), once they were understood, was well used by the hierarchy to put the fear of ..?.. into people and maintain the power structure of the day.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Duncan – even if there were an unpleasant reality — I would ignore it — because there would be NOTHING I could do about it

          It would be of ZERO concern to me

          I would just go on burning more coal and oil and consuming more stuff….

          Exactly as you are doing.

          You are the fo oool here. Not us

          You waste your energy on this utter nonsense.

          Are you a burn out from the Sierra Club – or perhaps Greenpeace?

          Light a fire a dance about it to the smooth sounds of Koombaya – and give this a rest

        • Lastcall says:

          Opinions are free, and you get what you pay for on here!

      • muchly2long says:

        “I certainly believe the burning of fossil fuels has altered our environment (how can it not?)” – This is true: entropy, etc.

        “but there is far too much smoke” – no pun intended ? 😉

        I was thinking back to the time of sites like LATOC (Life after the oil crash) etc., and of course we now have Mrs Tverberg finessing the arguments. So I was wondering, where all these great sites that have got the AGW debate sussed? But maybe it’s too early. Or maybe it will always be too early. After all, you need AT LEAST a century’s worth of good and rigorous date – better still, a millennium’s worth. And then, of course, we are pushing out pollution mainly from the cities, but much more of the Earth’s surface is covered by sea.

        [Now, I’ve read about the “underwater UFOs” with interest (see “Invisible Residents: The Reality of Underwater UFOS” by Ivan T Sanderson – take it with a pinch of salt if necessary, but the author was in the navy and was a biologist to boot), but if these things are not just illusions, then they are powered by stuff that is way beyond our ken.]

        Anyway, ignore that bracketed stuff – it amuses and intrigues me, that’s all. Beyond that, we have 9/11 – and nobody has piece together the different parts yet in such a way that they all agree. So perhaps AGW – or what is REALLY going on, i.e. the truth – will be just as foggy and slippery as 9/11.

        • Lastcall says:

          Its crop circles that bemuse me. Everything in my world would be a lot more certain if there was a definitive answer on those. Don’t ask me why.

          • muchly2long says:

            Of course you are bemused by crop circles, Lastcall. Aren’t we all? But as for me, I believe I have found the definitive answer. Tellingly, though the theory comes from a UFO investigator, his findings are completely earthbound. Jacques Vallée also wrote the world’s first chat program, on ARPANET, the forerunner of the internet, back in 1977. He has connections to people in the defence industry, and he mistrusts the military-industrial complex, the Deep State, and the MSM — just like us! Have a read of this astounding piece:

            http://www.ufoevidence.org/documents/doc1754.htm

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacques_Vall%C3%A9e

            • muchly2long says:

              Lastcall, another interesting book for you might be this:

              https://www.amazon.co.uk/Earth-Lights-Towards-Understanding-Unidentified/dp/0855001232/ref=sr_1_5?ie=UTF8&qid=1504252522&sr=8-5&keywords=paul+devereux

              Paul Devereux was fascinated by inexplicable phenomena he witnessed in the sky over England, along with several other people. He goes into the geology of the UK, in particular Wales, as he pursues his findings. He doesn’t come up with completely solid answers, given the hugely mysterious nature of these phenomena. This is what one reviewer concludes about his book:

              “Finally, the author in a bold move speculates that the collective unconscious is in some sense objective too, and that archetypes might be Gaia’s dreams. But if so, the interaction between the human mind and the earth light is really a kind of spiritual interaction between humans and Gaia.”

              Certainly a hugely intriguing theory, as far as it goes.

            • Lastcall says:

              Thanks. The Tao of Physics intrigued me greatly; how come the structure of atoms were intuitively/wholistically described before physicists arrived from a mechanistic/destructive approach?
              Science should stay with the de.ad, and refrain from dealing with the living, as it has never understood how the whole can be greater than the sum of its parts. Not so long ago most DNA was considered ‘junk’. Now we realise how efficient an information system it is. Science has basically destroy.ed the planet.

          • muchly2long says:

            “The Tao of Physics” – I’ve heard this mentioned before, so I’m putting it on my list to read within the next 6 months. I’ve experienced some of the weird stuff in recent years, so reading a lot of mystical stuff has actually helped. I thought, a few years ago, that the Archdruid was putting us on, as at heart I was more Dawkins than Dawkins, but the Archdruid is actually more grounded than I realised, and it’s possible to explore a little without getting anywhere near any weird religions.

    • Greg Machala says:

      AGW is irrelevant. It doesnt’ matter. It is unimportant. The real problem is resource scarcity leading to financial collapse.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      It is a tried and true technique to drive DelusiSTANIS from FW…. and it works.

      If you find yourself with this label tacked to your forehead… you really need to look yourself in the mirror and ask — where did I go wrong.

      Logic facts and common sense rule my world.

      If I smell MSM regurgitation at play on any issue — I will come for you.

      https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/t_original/1389366647884326800.gif

    • Greg Machala says:

      The last paragraph of the article is the most telling (kind of sounds familiar):

      “investors (including governments) are suckered-in by lurid investment brochures and glaring media headlines promising billions of barrels of oil and trillions of cubic metres of gas, before it transpires that little or no profitable oil and gas can actually be recovered. By then, of course, the investors’ money has been spent.”

      • Fast Eddy says:

        The Hidden Persuaders apply their strategies to just about everything.

        I think this is a book — Do You Wanna Be Right, or Do You Wanna Make Money?

        Never read it…

        But if the MSM pounds a drum hard enough people will believe a circle is a square …. if you join the herd (ideally early) you can make a lot of dosh…

        Does not matter if the investment is bogus — if you get in before the herd you will make money…

        The trick is knowing when to get out… because at the end of the day what cannot continue will stop.

        Tesla for instance… a lot of money has been made on that fake company… it will never be profitable … at some point it will collapse

    • The conditions in the arctic favor gas over oil, and recent exploration seems to show that reality follows the theory. The price available for gas is very low, so it generally does not make economic sense to extract it from distant locations. Also, shipping costs for gas are high.

    • Buster Douglas says:

      Often hurricanes approaching the US east coast veer off harmlessly into the Atlantic. Irma looks too far north in it’s projected tract to hit the US. The one’s to watch for are the one’s skimming just above South America that hook in like bowling balls, like Harvey did. It’s also more damaging if they peak late like Harvey did just before landfall vs. Irma’s early Cat. 5 projection.

      • Duncan Idaho says:

        Might want to examine that a bit more closely.
        Track is about where high pressure aligns with the storm.
        This is 2004/2005 all over again.

        • greg machala says:

          I hope so but right now there is a big ridge over the Atlantic. This will act to push the storm more southward. Most storms that pass through the Lesser Antilles wind up in the GOM. I hope the thing just dies out.

          • Duncan Idaho says:

            We will know in 5 days.
            The EURO (bets record) says the it will hit the Antilles.
            “Merican Model (not as robust because of budget cuts– and you know for what reason) brings it further North.

  5. Cliffhanger says:

    “Imports can’t make up for this. … This is going to be the worst thing the U.S. has seen in decades from an energy standpoint.”
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-harvey-colonial-co-northeast-idUSKCN1BA2Z6

    • water—-energy—-food supplies (when fuel supplies go, so does food)

      this is turning out to be a dress rehearsal for OFW doomsters

    • Laserninja says:

      You heard it from me first. Harvey would be the beginning of the end of happy motoring

    • Duncan Idaho says:

      Irma up next
      This is a real beast
      https://s.w-x.co/wu/irma-cfan-aug31.png

    • There are a lot of pipelines closed or closing. And, IIRC, it takes close to a week after a pipeline reopens, to get the oil pushed as far as Houston to Atlanta. So we are dealing with something that has a time-delay to it. The problems may not really hit for a few days more, in quite a bit of the country.

      In Atlanta, we have been through this several times before. The most recent times were twice in 2016, when there were accidents in Alabama that broke the Colonial gasoline pipeline. Some Atlanta people ended staying at home for a few days, because they couldn’t find an open gas station. (There were a few open stations around, if you looked far enough, and hit the time of day right.) In theory oil that was refined in the Midwest can be trucked in, but that takes a while and costs money.

      I am not sure how this whole thing will play out. There will not be a lot if insurance coverage for cleanup and rebuilding. The United States Government will be trying to figure out funding for the next year. It seems like Hurricane Harvey will add to the mess. If we get another hurricane, that will add to the problem as well.

      • greg machala says:

        It is getting harder and harder to deal with these disasters because of increasing population densities, aging infrastructure, resource scarcity, politics, and corruption. I don’t think Sandy is behind us yet as far as insurance payouts are concerned. Soon these disaster bills will begin to pile up.

        • Tim Groves says:

          I think you’re right, Greg. I can see a time coming when a lot of what gets destroyed in the US isn’t going to be replaced because the financial resources simply won’t be available.

    • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

      I think Kurt is up here in the northeast with me. (others?)

      hey Kurt, good thing we don’t depend on gasoline much, eh? (sarc)

      perhaps ironically, JHK is also here in the northeast.

      hey JHK, happy motoring!

      Cheers!

  6. and this is just one city where the dominoes really start to fall

    It’s always been one of the themes in here, that water will be the first to go

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/beaumont-texas-water-supply_us_59a803fce4b010ca289a9d69?ncid=inblnkushpmg00000009

    • Greg Machala says:

      I agree. The real hardship begins when the potable water goes away. 100+ thousand people without drinkable water. Many are displaced and homeless. What could possibly go wrong.

    • Greg Machala says:

      There is a lot of “we” and “I” need this water in that article. Not to much of the giving spirit anywhere in that article. Just goes to show you how quickly people can change even before they are actually in dire need of water.

      • you can go without water for 3-5 days tops

        that doesnt leave much time for generousity

        • Buster Douglas says:

          I wonder if Texas being a RED state watching FOX 24/7 and not in any way asserting to GW, will ever wonder if Harvey dropped more rain due in part to GW’s effect of pumping the atmosphere with more moisture and from the water in the gulf being warmer than it otherwise would have been? Food for thought for people that actually think beyond immediate lower brain stem drives. Oh, but we’re not suppose to discuss this while people are suffering – we need to wait until this simmers down and the news has moved on to Trump’s latest. Oh, right, that’s how it works.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            I prefer the MSM theme of blaming everything on Putin

            You gotta wonder if that hurricane didn’t drop more rain because Putin did a rain dance in the Kremlin

            I have absolutely no evidence of that — but that does not matter — I am still wondering …. no – I am pretty sure that is what happened.

            Because I do not deal in facts or logic — I deal in wonder

          • Tim Groves says:

            There’s been a 12-year “major hurricane drought” in the US since Katrina that’s just been broken by Harvey.

            You know this, Buster, right?

            So let’s get this right. The implication of your hypothesis is that all weather is “due in part to GW” because “it’s warmer than it would have otherwise been”. Hence, the dearth of Atlantic hurricanes coming ashore over the past 12 years was also due in part to GW’s effects.

            OK so far?

            According to NOAA in 2015, the US was experiencing a record-long streak of no major hurricanes. This continued through 2016 and up until Harvey in 2017, of course.

            The 2015 hurricane season marks a continuation of a record-long streak of no major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger) making landfall in the United States. The last major hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. was Wilma on November 24, 2005. This major hurricane drought surpassed the length of the eight-years from 1861-1868 when no major hurricane struck the United States’ coast. On average, a major hurricane makes landfall in the U.S. about once every three years.

            https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/sotc/tropical-cyclones/2015/annual/NAT_ace_2015.png

            By your logic, Buster, GW must have contributed to this record-long streak of no major hurricanes. Without GW to influence nature in this way, statistically,there would have been more major hurricanes, more flooding, more weather-related death and destruction in the US, your logic dictates.

            I’m glad we could clear that up. It’s been nice discussing science with you, and very enlightening.

          • Tim Groves says:

            One more thing — and I think it’s an important point. People living in the Red States tend to be more skeptical about GW than people living in the Blue States do. The same can be said about counties.

            So basically this is a city verses country disparity. And here’s where the country folk win hands down over the city slickers.

            The writer Ryonosuke Akutagawa of Rashomon fame wrote an observation that can be loosely translated “country people do not know the night, they only know the darkness.” This remains the case today—people like to go out for a night on the town or a day in the country, but nobody apart from an astronomer goes for a night out in the country because there is sod all to do after dark—and this would have been even more starkly true in the days before the electric light banished the darkness from the average person’s life.

            Similarly, I want to make the crass generalization that “city people do not know the clim-ate or the weath-er, they only know the urban environment.” I’m not nearly as poetic as Akutagawa was, but I recognize as he did the vast difference between people who live their lives in the country and those who live in the city. The former experience the full monty of natural world against their skin while the latter are protected most of the time from the extremes by the buildings and other infrastructure that break the force of the wind and reduce the temper-ature difference between day and night, and by the haze that cuts the amount of UV light penetrating down to street level.

            Also, in he vast hinterland of the Red States, seasonal differences in temps are huge, and there are no high mountains between Texas and the Arctic to prevent warm air systems rushing north and cold air systems sweeping south, in the process generating some of the most varied and challenging living conditions on Earth.

            I have some friends who farm in North Dakota. They have to deal with temps, ranging from 40 degrees C above to 40 degrees C below zero, with spring rains, summer droughts and autumn frosts than can wipe our a year’s crops, and sudden early blizzards that can kill a herd of cattle before there’s time to get them in from the pasture to the safety of the big barn. Such people are Nobel Laureates of Agriculture, out standing in their fields in all weath-ers. They aren’t likely to be worried about the prospect of a one or two degree rise in average annual glo-bal temp-erature. They know full well that the only temp-erature that counts is the actual one here and now, and that the effects of the temp-erature also depend greatly on the humid-ity and the wind speed. If they were the type of people who got their knickers in a twist about every hurricane or drought, they would not be living where they do, they would have fled the boondocks for the safety and security of big city life in one of the Blue zones.

            http://thoughtfulreading.com/files/2016/11/us-2016-presidential-election-map-3.png

            • Lastcall says:

              Great post!

            • doomphd says:

              only one point: a few degrees of glo.bal war.ming is a lot mor.on serious than even tens of degree swings in local weath.er. otherwise, a good post and figure.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Fortunately that is not happening … so much ado about nothing … next topic.

            • Tim Groves says:

              Lastcall & Doomphd, thanks! A few degrees of gw would surely raise sea level and that would be extremely serious for people living along the coasts. So on that count alone, in the US it isn’t surprising that gw is a bigger concern for the people in the Blue states, as they tend to be along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts. So although there is a political heard component to the Dems and Repubs attitudes, geography, such as living by the sea or at sea level might play a part too.

  7. Greg Machala says:

    Reading the stories of all the rain and flooding from Harvey I had an epiphany. One story was speaking of how long it will take for life to return to “normal” in the Houston area. If you just think about that statement for a moment: “return to normal”. Is that really what is going on in Houston? To me it seems that Houston had a taste of what “normal” really is. Normal is a brutish and grinding existence. The natural world is relentless and unforgiving. Every now and then nature is able to overwhelm our protective bubble of BAU and give us a taste of what the real world is like. So, in a sense Houston is seeking a return to “artificial life”.

    • Harry Gibbs says:

      Greg, that is a thoroughly depressing insight, not least because it is entirely accurate.

      • xabier says:

        Well, perhaps not so depressing, as there is no pleasure on earth like a difficulty overcome or a battle survived.

        Without struggle life is tasteless, and one goes mad like the super-rich – I’ve seen that at close hand.

        Nor any maturity like that which comes from the acceptance that you will be beaten in the end.

        It is in all the old myths.

        Even the gods die.

        We are returning to the way of all things, after a brief holiday….

  8. A Real Black Person says:

    Okay, who’s the smart guy who gave Telsa my phone number and told them that I wanted an appointment about “solar panels”?…

    Seriously, I did receive a phone call from a Telsa employee this week. I assumed that she called me by mistake but it was surreal.

    I mention this because we live in surreal times..or as other people would say “interesting times”.

  9. Fast Eddy says:

    I’m a bit busy on my end of the world burn more coal tour… getting ready for another 10 hour flight on Saturday … so the comments are piling up…

    Be patient … I will get to whatever you are referring to… and put the flamethrower to it.

  10. Fast Eddy says:

    You have really applied the scientific method to this.

    I imagine the MSM reported this and claimed it was evidence for gggg wwww. Very scientific indeed.

    These cities and islands are affected (within or near core **subjective to wind fields**) the most in the Atlantic Basin SINCE 1871.

    Examples:

    1) Cape Hatteras, North Carolina every 1.36 years Hit by Tropical Storm Hermine and brushed by Hurricane Matthew in 2016. This area has probably more brushes than any other area in the top 50 with many recurvatures just offshore. There are also numerous back door systems from the Gulf of Mexico that have cut through Hatteras on the way out to sea some as extratropical. (affected a whopping 107 times since 1871)

    2) Morehead City, North Carolina every 1.53 years Also Tropical Storm Hermine & Hurricane Matthew brush the area in 2016, located just S.W. of Cape Hatteras affected by many of the same systems. Alone in the 1.53 group with 25 hurricane hits but overall 12 less storms than Cape Hatteras. (affected 95 times since 1871)

    3) Grand Bahama Island, Bahamas every 1.63 years Hit by Hurricane Matthew in 2016 but remains in the #3 position and the most affected island in the Bahamas by named storms. Located in the N.W Bahamas the island see’s many storms turning N.W and North off the state of Florida. (affected 89 times since 1871)

    Many more http://www.hurricanecity.com/rank.htm

    Can you tell us what it is like to be so D umb? What’s a normal day look like for you?

  11. Interguru says:

    Just for a happy thought on the elimination of inequality.

    In his new book, Walter Scheidel offers a simple, though jarring, story of how past societies struggled with inequality. The Great Leveler is a cautionary tale to policy makers who believe in economic redistribution as a means to level the playing field

    ……………

    Scheidel argues that history offers few peaceful antidotes to the accumulation of property, money, and leverage in the hands of the few. “For thousands of years,” Scheidel observes, “civilization did not lend itself to peaceful equalization

    ………………….

    Scheidel notes that large estates and monopolies, and the wealthy classes that control them, collapsed only during relatively rare times of chaos. The “massive and violent disruptions of the established order” encompass the four horsemen of the redistributive apocalypse, which Scheidel collectively describes as the “the Great Leveler.

    http://inference-review.com/article/equal-by-catastrophe

    • If nature allowed for complete equality, then every time a species hit a bottleneck, either 100% would pass through it, or 0% would. This would be great when the 100% passed through, but not great at all when the 0% times hit.

      Nature seems to have devised the plan that there will always be random differences. Some members of any species are always a little better adapted to the particular adverse circumstance that hits. Those members survive disproportionately. This pattern allows some members of the species to survive. It also helps the species to gradually adapt to changes in the environment.

      • xabier says:

        Exactly, the elimination of inequality in general isn’t even remotely desirable.

      • Duncan Idaho says:

        Except when you are in a Mass Extinction (like now).
        Then often 95% of them don’t pass through the bottle neck.
        We almost went extinct as a species about 70,000 years ago– down to as little as 2,000 of us– we can tell by the genetic record.

        • We started the mass extinction back in hunter gatherer ages. Things like this happen.

        • Tim Groves says:

          Again Duncan, you are citing conjecture as it if were proven fact. I suspect you know a good deal less than you pretend to know about the state of humanity 70,000 years ago, and you flaunt your knowledge with much more confidence than the current state of the knowledge warrants.

          In this particular instance, you are conflating the controversial Toba catastrophe hypothesis, presented in the late 1990s to early 2000s (which suggested that a bottleneck of the human population occurred c. 70,000 years ago, reducing us down to perhaps 10,000–30,000 individuals) with the hypothesis presented in Molecular Biology and Evolution suggesting a transplanting model or a ‘long bottleneck’ to account for the limited genetic variation, rather than a catastrophic environmental change. This would be consistent with suggestions that in sub-Saharan Africa numbers could have dropped at times as low as 2,000, for perhaps as long as 100,000 years, before numbers began to expand again in the Late Stone Age.

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_bottleneck

          You’ve managed to conflated these two enormously different conjectures into a single “factoid” and pontificated that “we can tell by the genetic record.” Actually, no we can’t. At least, not yet we can’t. How do you manage to keep falling down on the basics like this while remaining so very confident that you are smarter than the average guy?

          Yours is a mere show of knowledge. You’re not a “Science Guy” but you play one online. You complain about the Daily Mail not getting its science right, but you are as sloppy as the next know it all, projecting your pretend knowledge with the effortless superiority of the college teacher who thinks he can lecture to the OFW crew as if we were a batch of freshmen.

      • Greg Machala says:

        Inequalities of pressure in the atmosphere create the flows of moisture and air that bring weather and give the planet life.

        • Lastcall says:

          And the steeper the pressure gradient the stronger the flows are. The economy feels like it is holding its breath; will it gently exhale or will it go for the explosive sneeze?

  12. Lastcall says:

    Actually I was accused of being a Consp. theorist a few days ago in a situation where it was difficult/useless to reply. But since then I have figured out my reply – I have modified an old fairy tale to modernise it;

    Its the ‘Emperor has no Clothes’ and I have altered just the end. When the young boy shouts out ‘he has no clothes’, one of the assembled crowd turns and points to him and says ‘cons.piracy theory’, and thus the crowd discounts what their own eyes can see, and returns to their happy state of ign.orance. The End…is not far off.

    Mark twain comes to mind often – if you don’t read papers (MSM) you are un-informed, if you do read papers you are mis-.informed.

    Had to alter and repost??!!

    • Fast Eddy says:

      +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    • Really like, “if you don’t read papers (MSM) you are un-informed, if you do read papers you are mis-.informed.”

      • Greg Machala says:

        Yep. Bottom line is you must do you own research to figure out, understand and (hopefully) accept the truth.

        • Duncan Idaho says:

          Yea, like using the Daily Mail and Tony Heller as sources.

          • Tim Groves says:

            I’ve posted Tony Heller’s excellent research as a rebuttal of the propaganda you post because he is often very effective at exposing the chicanery of “Science Guy” Chaucerian frauds and the insanity of Soviet mentality Democrats demanding compliance with their cult.

            By doing my own research and my own thinking, I had pretty much worked it out that people were using the CC issue as a power play and an enormous cash cow 20 years ago, without any help from Mr. Heller or the MSM. Really, you only need to study the words (and if you are into it, the body language) and the deeds of the people pushing the agenda and the fraud exposes itself.

            Heller’s debunking of the project to make the present seem warmer by systematically misrepresenting past measurement records is just the icing on an already very rich and fruity cake.

        • ITEOTWAWKI says:

          That reminds me of what CTG once said where you can tell someone all the points that show the person our unsolvable predicament (which soon will not be a predicament anymore, since we won’t be here anymore)….but in the end, you have to do your own leg work and research to understand and absorb the nature of our predicament…

  13. Lastcall says:

    Actually I was accused of being a Consp. theorist a few days ago in a situation where it was difficult/useless to reply. But since then I have figured out my reply – I have modified an old fairy tale to modernise it;

    Its the ‘Emperor has no Clothes’ and I have altered just the end. When the young boy shouts out ‘he has no clothes’, one of the assembled crowd turns and points to him and says ‘conspiracy theory’, and thus the crowd discounts what their own eyes can see, and returns to their happy state of ignorance. The End…is not far off.

    Mark twain comes to mind often – if you don’t read papers (MSM) you are uniformed, if you do read papers you are misinformed.

    • Greg Machala says:

      How does one find a “conspiracy theory” in the FACT that you cannot have infinite growth in a finite world? This is just a physical fact. Humans are conspiring to deplete the planets resources to the point where human population levels will have to drop precipitously to re balance consumption of finite resources. It is really that simple. It doesn’t take a 1000 pages to realize our predicament.

  14. Fast Eddy says:

    So … a good friend who lives in the US emails me informing me that Trump has sold out to the Russians and that he needs to be stopped — spread the word.

    He is either going out of his mind or pissed on too much wine…or both…

    My response:

    If he has then it is kind of like selling the Titanic — just before it hit the iceberg no?

    https://sites.psu.edu/ruggierr/files/2016/10/ba-dum-tiss-1fjxult.jpg

    • Lastcall says:

      Most people would rather believe the lies than use their eyes!
      Better a comfortable lie than a harsh truth is my experience (well in the past) of trying to enlighten people!

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Yep … he still believes the unemployment rate is 4.5%… and that obama was awesome…

        That leaves at a crossroads in terms of conversation….

        • Lastcall says:

          Ha same with this dude; thinks Obobo could have won despite me pointing out he went from having both senate and congress majorities to lame duck during his turn as cook/ um prez..
          It shows how normalised wa.r has become when I point out he was bomm..bing 8 diff countries by the end of his term and still held the Nob Pie.ces Prizzee.

          Use.ful Idi.ot as he is well qualified professional.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            I am feeling rather isolated in real life — hehehehe….

            • Lastcall says:

              Yep my circle of people I hang with is small, and even then I only fully broach this topic on here. Within my circle I keep my observations to pointing out how the fiction on MSM is at odds with the reality of what we see around us, but I don’t go past that. I throw in some history and some statistics and thats about it. Mostly I try and share a laugh and point out how absurd things have become, and how relevant is the Chines.e curse is of ‘May you live in interesting times.’

              I still retain a shred of inner denial; I plant trees, I don’t spend all my money, I listen without comment to other peoples plans, and I still try to read ‘great books’ to broaden my outlook.

              Finally, as part of my denial I am still desperately waiting for someone to come on here (anywhere) and provide ‘the answer’ to getting out of this train to nowhere.

              Not. holding. my. breath.!

            • xabier says:

              We are separated from others by the bones of our skulls. In many cases, these are very thick indeed. 🙂

            • ITEOTWAWKI says:

              Lc, I too save up cash every month. But for me it is not so much as being in denial…I fully realize that most of the (pretty decent) nest egg I have built up over the years will have been all for naught…however it’s not in my nature to be a big spender (I HATE debt, been debt-free for years) and in any case I have all the toys I need…so the parallel to what I am doing would be a 95 year-old who has millions saved up but has always been thrifty…just because he knows the end of the line for him is very soon, he won’t necessarily start blowing his millions….one thing I do though is I will splurge more for higher-end items (wine, food, etc..) than I would have if I thought IC had decades to go 🙂

    • xabier says:

      Political discourse in the US seems to have reached the rational level to be found in a Marrakech cafe – with everyone stoned.

      The propagandists must be very pleased to see how effective they are.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        It has become addictive — my mate is an expat — yet his wife tells me that he spends every spare moment glued to CNN (she is not far behind).

        This is all just another manufactured distraction aimed at keeping the masses from focusing on the fact that we are about to be flushed down the sh itter.

        All of these strategies are working very very well… the masses are so passionate about such pointless things as politics and wooble gooorming

        Just like how a cat will be distracted by a string for hours…

        Stewpid humans… so easy to manipulate. You can even tell them exactly how it is being done but they will only get angry if you try.

        In their own little worlds…. of delusion

      • Duncan Idaho says:

        The physics doesn’t care

        The age of paid debate is over , the age of costs is here.

  15. Cliffhanger says:

    A flooded Texas chemical plant is about to explode
    https://news.vice.com/story/a-flooded-texas-chemical-plant-is-about-to-explode

    • Duncan Idaho says:

      Yea, it has been a few days–
      We shall see.
      That are freaked.

    • Rodster says:

      And just this morning a report came that loud explosions were heard and black smoke was seen from the location of the chemical plant.

  16. This is the future of the world.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EeEcp3vvj8k

    Already the successful people, like Joel Osteen, showed they don’t give a f’k about tho refugees, which is a necessary development as civilization progresses.

    The “deluge”, mentioned by smite, will come to the people.

    The situation the little ‘match seller’ (Andersen’s original title, which suggests she might have been selling something else, too, a reference today’s PC sensors expurgated) was how things in Scandinavia was when Gail’s ancestor decided to come to America.

    The people will be too busy, and too mindful of their own business, to care about the poor and the unfortunate. Mercy will die, humanity will die, etc.

    The little girl goes to a non-existent heaven, dying in a phosphorous-induced delusion.

    An honest version of this story would end with the girl thrown into pauper’s grave, complete with spitting workers who have to take the trouble to do so in a frozen ground, dumped with a bunch of wretches who were out of gene pool. The merry-going middle class who have no time for her will enjoy the earth, with their gene pool still intact.

    That’s how evolution goes.

    • Child prostitution was rampant. In William Hogarth’s painting, this was how the ‘early teen’ girls often behaved.

      https://mydailyartdisplay.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/marriage-a-la-mode-the-inspection-by-william-hogarth.jpg?w=640&h=487

      the girl already complains for a sore in the mouth, meaning she already has venereal disease. Such was the norm for most of the poorer girls before about 1940, which is why those who were not rich enough to marry a ‘decent’ mate were easily written off from the gene pool.

    • psile says:

      Except, in the era of ‘The Little Match Girl”, the human population wasn’t in rampant overshoot.

    • Lastcall says:

      To see the future, discover the past. This about the Irish fam.ine;

      ‘The consequences were hor.rific; Ireland was transformed into a post-apocalyptic landscape. Destitute men lined the roads in their rags, sleeping in crude shelters dug into roadside ditches. People ate dogs, rats, and tree bark. Reports of can.nibal.ism were frequent and perhaps accurate. Entire families died in their homes and were eaten by feral pets. Dis.ease picked at the survivors: dysentery, smallpox, typhus, measles, a host of ailments listed in death records as “fever.” Mobs of beggars—“homeless, half-naked, fam.ishing creatures,” one observer called them—besieged the homes of the wealthy, calling for alms. So many died that in many western towns the bodies were inter.red in mass gra.ves.

      As resources vanished, life became a struggle of all against all. Starving men stole into fields to steal turnips from the ground. Farmers dug mantraps in their fields to stop them. Landlords evicted tenants in huge numbers, tore down their homes, then went bankrupt themselves. Neighbor fought neighbor for food and shelter. Crime levels exploded, the mur.der rate almost doubling in two years. Some hungry people stole to put food on the table, others to be fed while incarcerated. In one case two men released from prison were sent back the next day for trying “to break into jail.” The only violent crime to decline was rape, because potential perpetrators lacked the energy.’

      http://energyskeptic.com

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Organic Koombayaist Preppers should read that post a few times…

        Then think …

        Do I have neighbours? What will they do when they are hungry? Can I feed them?

        How many people live within say half a tank of petrol of my position?

        If you are honest with yourself…. if you do not stick your fingers in your ears and block your eyes…

        You will see — that you are wasting your time.

        You will understand why my motto is Live Large Longer LLL….. you are not going to make it through this …. and I guarantee you when hell on earth descends…

        You will welcome deth.

        • Lastcall says:

          I have always imagined that feral dogs will be a problem for both the d ceased and the feeble/isolated living. No real fear of previous masters.

          • Hide-Away says:

            Not a chance, in an EOTWAWKI situation, all the stray dogs will be eaten, just like all other megafauna.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              +++++++++++

              Keep your children close — you don’t want your neighbours eating them —- afterall they are your children — you fattened them…. they go to your pot

            • Lastcall says:

              Ummm…the excerpt I posted just detailed how feral pets actually did feast on the victims of famine. Not sure how much clearer that message could have been.
              Maybe for you it will not happen is what you mean?

      • xabier says:

        Norwegians used to eat tree bark – inner bark -in times of famine. I imagine most Nordic people did so.

        You can apparently make a kind of bread/biscuit out of it (lots of wood to do the cooking!)

        Also used as a kind of extender in regular baking.

        Many peasants ate a little even in good times, so it wouldn’t be too much of a disagreeable shock when famine times came.

      • Ireland was still producing and exporting food at that time

        The famine was brought about by potato blight, which destroyed the basic food staple in southern/western Ireland.

        The problem was compounded by indifference and a lack of political will, rather than a lack of food, which is still the case with most famines today. Commercial interests and constraints prevented comprehensive famine relief. The well off didn’t starve to death.

        If future food supplies are cut off altogether, then that will present an entirely different picture

        • Harry Gibbs says:

          The potato famine made it up here to Islay in the 1840’s. There was a better support-system than in Ireland so nobody died but living here became untenable. Along with the highland clearances it initiated a huge exodus to Glasgow and North America. The population never recovered. The 1831 census recorded a population of 14,992 – today it is around 3,000. Suits me, of course.

          • and what people don’t realise is that the potato blight hasn’t gone away

            it is keep at bay only by modern oil fuelled farming methods.

            it has the potential to return

            • Harry Gibbs says:

              Norman, as, I suspect, with most of us commenting on this blog, I have learnt the hard way that trying to explain our predicament to people is tantamount to volunteering for weirdo-pariah status, so I keep very schtum on the matter these days. It is frustrating on one level because obviously we are only going to survive as a community and our chances of doing so would greatly improve with some focused, advance preparation but I just daren’t ‘out’ myself.

              I have never discussed my concerns with the kids. The youngest is only 4 so that would be a non-starter in any case. The eldest is 11 but I can’t bear to burst his bubble – like everyone he assumes infinite BAU; he wants to be a Youtube presenter when he grows up! And he’s a sensitive kid – I don’t want to make him anxious. As far as they are concerned we are here just because it is a nice place to grow up – and it is, so the deception is a low-key one.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              For those with children I highly recommend conversations be directed to the pre-packaged MSM guided topics meant to deflect anxiety about the end of the age of oil and our extinction.

              Examples of pre-packaged topics include:

              – recycling
              – g al w ming
              – EVs
              – renewable energy

              The resource materials for this package are readily available for free on any MSM outlet.

            • Slow Paul says:

              I think you are doing the right thing regarding your eldest, by not crushing his dreams. My 5 yo daughter may ask me about death and if old relatives are going to die, which I regrettably reply “everybody dies”. Lots of crying ensues… But all in all I think it is correct to have a “relaxed relationship” with death.

          • psile says:

            Do you speak Gaelic?

            • Harry Gibbs says:

              Psile, I know my colours and my greetings but that is about it! My kids have a smattering as it is taught in their school and in true incomer fashion my house has a somewhat twee Gaelic name. Unofficially its sobriquet is ‘Our Finite Home’ as it was Gail’s articles that inspired me to move here, away from the densely populated SE of England, and build it.

            • lol

              you’re doing what thousands are doing, moving either north or west in uk—mainly west i think. from london

              i genuinely wish you well with it.

              do the locals regard you as ”incomers” or have you settled fully in there—it’s something that interests me.–whether you are accepted or looked on as prey or livestock.

              youve done it early, i worry about all the people who will leave it to the last minute before trying to find a bolt hole. not everyone can afford to do that of course.

              My concern would be can Islay feed itself (3000 people) apart from whisky?

            • Harry Gibbs says:

              Norman, thank you for the well wishes!

              I looked at Islay quite carefully before moving up here. It is bigger than the Isle of Man but the standing population is 3,000 versus 83,000. The population can as much as double here during the tourist season but even allowing for that, we have a lot land and resources per capita – deer and livestock, the River Sorn with its salmon, the inland lochs full of trout and of course the large bay (confusingly known as Loch Indaal) in the middle, surrounded by edible seaweed and full of lobster and fish. There is a pretty deciduous wood in the middle – Bridgend Wood – but better for fuel is the local peat. There are eight distilleries up here as well, so I suppose we could even burn the whisky at a pinch, although I’d rather be drinking it.

              It’s not an easy place for the zombie hordes to get to. The seas are notoriously treacherous. The Corryvreckan whirlpool by neighbouring Jura is supposed to be the second most powerful in the world. It nearly claimed George Orwell when he was up on Jura writing 1984.

              People here have an enforced appreciation of supply-chain vulnerabilities – if there is rough weather and the ferry can’t make it over then the Co-op supermarket shelves rapidly empty – so there is already a culture of self-sufficiency and most people have a store of food in their garage; there are quite a few polytunnels as well.

              The locals have been welcoming and we have made some good friends. The demographic is elderly because a lot of the young people leave to the mainland to forge careers, so families with young kids tend to be welcomed – it means the local school gets more funding, for example. Now, whether or not that will translate into them not eating us when push comes to shove only time will tell!

              Of course if FE is correct about the nuclear power stations then we are buggered in short order like everyone else, as Hunterston NPS is only 60 miles to the east and there are a few dotted around Ireland to the south, but as a father I felt obliged to give it a go. My other concern is loss of global dimming and the knock-on effects that may have on marine-life, weather patterns thence our ability to grow food, instances of extreme weather and so forth.

              But I have no regrets. It was scary packing our belongings into a caravan and heading up here but the whole thing has been an hilarious adventure, quite worthwhile on its own merit.

            • i envy you, apart from the midgies

              i know the hebrides well—skye,barra, wester ross etc, been there many times but never made it to islay

              do your kids accept/know why you made the move? —must have been difficult for them.
              my kids think i’m nuts

            • Harry
              with your kids so young you can’t involve them too much in the unpleasantness of the future, so now is the right time to make your move i guess

              any older, teens say, and you’d probably have a mutiny on your hands.

              just out of interest, how do you earn a living up there?

            • Fast Eddy says:

              The south island of NZ had a similar appeal for me when the decision was made to move here… but those dastardly spent fuel ponds threw one of many wrenches into the gear box.

              But no regrets — we enjoy our time in NZ very much and there is something to be said for spending one’s final days closer to nature rather than packed into a city with millions of other rats.

          • Indeed. A depop is great for those who manage to survive. More land and more resource for everyone.

        • muchly2long says:

          Many Irish emigrated to England, becoming “navvies” during the industrial revolution. The wheelbarrow was a great invention for the Irish, as it taught them to walk on their hind legs.

          • Indeed. The English has never considered the Irish as being equal to them, even now.

            Although why England was so nice to the Brahmins is another question.

          • Harry Gibbs says:

            Norman, I ran out of room so my reply is further up under your earlier comment about the potato blight ^^^ 🙂

  17. Buster Douglas says:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/30/us-revised-second-quarter-gdp.html

    “US revised second-quarter GDP up 3.0% vs 2.7% rise expected”

    That seems a far cry from imminent collapse.

  18. Cliffhanger says:

    I figured the conscience of some in the oil industry would perpetuate alarmist reports as the Total CEO did recently …more to come, I’m 100% sure…

  19. jupiviv says:

    Not that it has anything to do with the topic, but I must say that, as stupid and nonsensical as a few of the comments here are, the overall comment-board discourse is incomparably saner than at Kunstler’s website nowadays. It’s like an insane ideological jamboree. I don’t blame Kunstler himself, but…damn!

    I wonder what it is that draws calmer heads to this blog, but left libertarian nazis and Christian SJWs to Kunstler’s blog. Perhaps it has to do with the subject matter he writes about, and his perspective, which I read as left inclined centric and libertarian. Turns out centrism can be as irrational as extremism. In fact, much of the political chaos in the US can be boiled down to people refusing to give up arbitrarily lumped together sets of beliefs when faced with circumstances that require them to do so.

    • Quite a few of my posts are hard to understand, unless you sit down and read them a second time. Even the less difficult ones require a person to look at graphs and interpret them. These things bias the kind of readers I have toward folks who are willing and able to read technical material.

      I also have taken the position that neither the democrats or republicans have solutions. That holds down the politics a bit.

    • Slow Paul says:

      JHK has written alot of books so he might draw a big crowd to his blog that way. He is blaming people left and right so this might appeal to people looking for scapegoats and solutions. Gail offers none, just objective data analysis. So you get more level headed people over here.

    • Davidin100trillionyears says:

      “… I must say that, as stupid and nonsensical as a few of the comments here are…”

      what? Peak Houston means the end of BAU by September.

      “I wonder what it is that draws calmer heads to this blog…”

      I think it’s that we mostly acknowledge that the decline of IC is inevitable, but there is benefit in discussing the timing and ramifications.

      JHK seems to keep saying that the end of BAU, “happy motoring”, is going to happen every year for the past 10 years.

    • Davidin100trillionyears says:

      “… I must say that, as stoop-id and nonsensical as a few of the comments here are…”

      what? Peak Houston means the end of BAU by September.

      “I wonder what it is that draws calmer heads to this blog…”

      I think it’s that we mostly acknowledge that the decline of IC is inevitable, but there is benefit in discussing the timing and ramifications.

      JHK seems to keep saying that the end of BAU, “happy motoring”, is going to happen every year for the past 10 years.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Those types do land on FW regularly …

      They leave fairly quickly when they see this

      https://i.pinimg.com/originals/d7/93/36/d793369a3bce0a66bad56f1542b42cdb.jpg

  20. Cliffhanger says:

    US Opioid Use Linked To Unemployment, Researchers Say
    http://www.ibtimes.com/us-opioid-use-linked-unemployment-researchers-say-2583092

    • Davidin100trillionyears says:

      world data shows that 99% of opioid addiction is in the USA.

      so there’s more going on here than just unemployment.

      Big Pharma?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Eeeelddders…. they are providing a solution to those who are in despair…

        Speaking of the eelllldders…. here we have a PM bad mouthing them

        “I don’t question your motives (to be a politician). But the results are important. Hitler, who killed millions of people, was no good, even if his motives were right,” Aso told a meeting of his faction of the governing Liberal Democratic Party on Tuesday.

        The Simon Wiesenthal Center, an organization which confronts anti-Semitism, hate speech and terrorism, said Aso’s comments could spoil Japan’s reputation. “This is just the latest of a troubling list of ‘misstatements’ and [they] are downright dangerous,” the center’s head, Rabbi Abraham Cooper, said in a statement on Tuesday. “These words damage Japan’s reputation at the very time when all Americans want to show their solidarity with Japan, our sister democracy and ally, following the missile launch from Kim Jong-un’s North Korea.”

        http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-30/global-outrage-after-japan-finance-minister-said-hitler-had-right-motives

        • Tim Groves says:

          Mr Aso is a member of a minority religious sect in Japan; he’s a Roman Catholic (0.4% of the population). He was Prime Minister for just under a year and earned the rare distinction for an LDP leader of losing a general election.

          I was reading a Wikipedia article on Masayoshi Ohira, a PM in the late 1970s, and it says
          “Ōhira was the sixth Christian to hold this office after Hara Takashi, Takahashi Korekiyo, Ichirō Hatoyama, Tetsu Katayama, and Shigeru Yoshida.” Hatoyama’s grandson Yukio also held the post just after Aso, so by my count that means eight Christian PMs at least out of the first 60 of them. Looks like the Vatican/Templar/Opus Dei faction of the El-ders may have a tentacle or two on this part of the world.

  21. maybe someone already posted?

    America’s largest oil refinery, in Port Arthur, Texas, prepared to shut down Tuesday as Tropical Storm Harvey continued to batter the storm-ravaged region, plant operation sources said.

    http://nypost.com/2017/08/29/americas-largest-oil-refinery-preps-shut-down-in-texas/

    • Thanks! I see that this article says that a total of 12 refineries are at leas partially shut down. http://money.cnn.com/2017/08/30/news/harvey-motiva-oil-refinery-shutdown/index.html

      Reuters is saying that 3.6 million barrels a day of capacity is offline.
      http://money.cnn.com/2017/08/30/news/harvey-motiva-oil-refinery-shutdown/index.html

      • Davidin100trillionyears says:

        the quote I heard was “one quarter of all gasoline refining” is offline.

        Gail, didn’t you speculate that gasoline shortages will start next week?

        never mind the price increases.

        people will pay a lot to fill a tank on E.

        BAU?

        • The pipeline of concern in the Atlanta area is the Colonial Pipeline. It has gone out several times before. There is a new article out this evening saying that the pipelines are again headed for shutdowns – diesel first, then the gasoline line. http://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/277548078-story These are quotes from the Colonial Pipelines press release:

          Due to supply constraints caused by storm-related refinery shut-downs and the impact to Colonial’s facilities west of Lake Charles, Colonial’s Line 2, which transports primarily diesel and aviation fuels, will suspend service this evening. For the same reasons, we expect that Line 1, which transports gasoline and is currently operating at reduced rates, will suspend service tomorrow (Thursday). Once Colonial is able to ensure that its facilities are safe to operate and refiners in Lake Charles and points east have the ability to move product to Colonial, our system will resume operations.

          Of the 26 refineries that connect to the Colonial system, 13 are located between Houston and Lake Charles.
          Colonial is one part of the fuel delivery system, and there are multiple means of supplying the market to mitigate concerns with supply, including other pipelines, trucks, and barges.

          We have to have higher prices to get gasoline and diesel by the other methods.

          I am sure that this will be in the local paper tomorrow. In fact, it seems to be on Fox News TV now.

          • Davidin100trillionyears says:

            uh oh, national TV already.

            we’ll see soon enough if this stirs up panic buying and long lines at the gas pumps.

          • Duncan Idaho says:

            You watch Faux News?
            Entertainment at best.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              All MSM news is Faux (ox) News.

            • I “Google” to figure out what is being said on a particular subject. The AJC did have a very short article out, that said practically nothing. Fox News had a longer article that actually quoted the Colonial Pipeline press release, so I quoted it.

              I (intentionally) do not have a television, so I do not watch any station. This morning, the AJC had a longer article out.

        • Duncan Idaho says:

          In its wake, more than two million pounds of hazardous chemicals have been released into the air, according to filings reported with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality and first reported by Politico.

          Those chemicals include cancer-causing and potentially lethal gases like carbon monoxide and benzene, among others.

  22. Lastcall says:

    Further on in same article…

    ‘As we have emphasized, Industrial Civilization is beholden to electricity. Namely: In 1999, electricity supplied 42% (and counting) of the world’s end-use energy versus 39% for oil (the leading fossil fuel). Yet the small difference of 3% obscures the real magnitude of the problem because it omits the quality of the different forms of end-use energy. With apologies to George Orwell and the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics — “All joules (J) of energy are equal. But some joules are more equal than others.” Thus, if you just want to heat your coffee, then 1 J of oil energy works just as well as 1 J of electrical energy. However, if you want to power up your computer, then 1 J of electricity is worth 3 J of oil. Therefore, the ratio of the importance of electricity versus oil to Industrial Civilization is not 42:39, but more like 99:1. Similar ratios apply to electricity versus gas and electricity versus coal.’

    http://www.dieoff.org/page224.htm

    Question: Where will the Olduvai die-off occur? Response: Everywhere. But large cities, of course, will be the most dangerous places to reside when the electric grids die. There you have millions of people densely packed in high-rise buildings, surrounded by acres-and-acres of blacktop and concrete: no electricity, no work, and no food. Thus the urban areas will rapidly depopulate when the electric grids die

    • There are two ways of counting electricity–based on joules and based on a “grossed up” valuation, under the view that electricity is more valuable. That is why we burn fossil fuels, and in fact, get fewer joules (heat value) of electricity with them.

      The Joules approach is what IEA uses. Under this approach, (using BP world data for 2016), electricity amounts for 22% of the total and oil amounts to 45% of the total. It truly would be correct to say that this approach omits the quality of the different forms of end-use energy, so it understates the value of electricity.

      BP and the EIA use a “grossed up” approach for electricity, based on the view that electricity is really worth more than its joules of output. If we use this approach, we get oil at 33% of the total and electricity at electricity at 42% of total energy consumption. In this approach, electricity is already grossed up, so we don’t need to do more to it. In fact, this approach does show more electricity than oil.

      The article is quite old, since it is quoting numbers for 1999. Oil consumption has dropped as percentage of the total since then, while coal use has grown. It is clear that the author is already quoting amounts for “grossed up” electricity. Thus, the part where he says that there is a need to adjust for quality differences isn’t really true, in the numbers he is using.

      In today’s numbers, electricity is clearly greater than oil, when using grossed up amounts (42% to 35%). But in joules, it is behind 45% to 22%. This makes comparing reports by different authors confusing. Some authors gross up one kind of electricity and not another–for example, comparing hydroelectric and nuclear. Strange!

  23. Lastcall says:

    Maybe its this…? Whatever narrative you want, just goo gal it; karma/carbon/gaia/the Russians and you can find a reason for the flooding. Pick your medicine.

    ‘The earth’s immune system, so to speak, has recognized the presence of the human species and is starting to kick in. The earth is attempting to rid itself of an infection by the human parasite.’

    Richard Preston, 1994

    http://www.dieoff.org/page224.htm

    • Davidin100trillionyears says:

      he was being overly dramatic back then.

      human numbers keep on increasing.

      6.5 million in the Houston area.

      every year has its share of flooding.

      now, more humans than ever before live in flood zones.

      it’s better modeled as overshoot.

      as population increases, there will be more frequent “major” events that result in mass death, by famine or war or disease or flood etc.

      • Jesse James says:

        The increased population density, as is the case in Houston and was the case in NewYork whenHurricane Sandy hit, means the damage is proportionately worse and more expensive….not necessarily that the storms are worse. Hurricane Harvey was not much worse than other hurricanes…but the fact that it stalled due to a confluence of high pressure zones blocking its forward progress, resulted in so much water being dumped in one place. The big joke is when g l o b a l w a r m I n g is trotted out as the reason for these things happening. They said that about Sandy also, but Sandy was no worse than hurricanes that occurred in the early 20th century. It is just that the entire New York area was so heavily populated and delevloped, that the resulting totality of damage was worse. Houston is way over developed. Water drainage is ruined and wetlands destroyed. Flooding will continue with future storms.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          The bigger joke is that people on this site — who fancy themselves as deep thinkers —- line up at the trough to drink this MSM slop.

          Again – this is a ‘tell’ — the MSM — without a shred of evidence — simply blames the damage on gggeeeby weeeebbby…

          Not even a feeble attempt to point out that far more people are living in locations that are prone to flooding and destruction when these storms hit.

          Incredible

  24. Dennis L. says:

    Houston:
    Houston is not only a refining center, it appears to be a manufacturing center for one of a kind petroleum related parts that only a handful of men in the world are capable of making and then on only very specialized 5 axis machining centers with tools for these centers custom made by these few men. Think Steve Jobs and Apple.
    If the shops are under water, the machines are ruined, the tooling is ruined; is this the supply chain disruption so many of you have discussed?

    Dennis L.

    • xabier says:

      Interesting: sounds like it might be a possible ‘CTG Event’, the kind of manufacturing disruption he warns us of, aka ‘They don’t even make toothbrushes in your continent anymore.’

    • It seems like a temporary disruption is more likely than a long term disruption, if specialized parts are being made in Houston. The people and most of the machines will still be around, even if the buildings are damaged.

  25. Duncan Idaho says:

    Anyone into statistical probability?
    Harvey is the third 500-year flood to hit the Houston area in the past three years

    • Tim Groves says:

      I see the GW ghouls are out already. Can’t you people even wait until the bodies are fished out of the bayous and buried?

      The Huston area is low-lying, by the sea, and prone to hurricanes and to flooding. Also, to design the infrastructure to cope with 500-year+ events would be prohibitively expensive. The problem with that level of design is two-fold:

      The local regulations specify 100-year FEMA floodplains as the standard of design because this simplifies things and keeps costs under control. Also,a 100-year event is likely to occur in many people’s lifetimes (almost a 50% chance in 70 years). A 500-year event, by contrast, has a less than 13% chance of occurring in 70 years.

      The claim “Harvey is the third 500-year flood to hit the Houston area in the past three years” is unfounded for three reasons.

      For a start, the term “500-year flood” is merely a estimate based on past records, and past records of rain and flood in Texas over the past 500 years are—how can I put it—far from complete.

      Secondly, land use and waterway changes over the past century in the Huston area have been significant, rendering direct comparisons with previous centuries invalid. For instance, replacing swamp and pasture with asphalt and concrete and building lots of long straight canals or drainage ditches is a great way to take a lot of water that has fallen as rain over a wide area and to funnel and concentrate rapidly it into a narrow area.

      And thirdly, here’s a list of over 150 reports of significant flooding in the Huston area over the past 200 years Quite a lot of these weather events were at least in the same ballpark in terms of scope to what Texas is suffering today. Thousands of homes flooded, homes and bridges washed away, dozens, hundreds or thousands of people drowned, and the bayous and in particular the Buffalo Bayou bursting their banks with depressing frequency.

      http://www.wxresearch.com/almanac/houflood.html

      So forget this once-in-500-years statistic. That’s a diversion away from the real issue. The area is prone to flooding period. And Huston was built on the floodplain and has grown into the fourth largest conurbation in the US despite the tendency of the place to flood every few years. Flood disasters—small, medium, and large—are guaranteed to flow from the confluence of decisions of all the people who elected to build and inhabit the place.

      • I expect that investors feel that someone will bail them out, if they build in a floodplain. (In fact, they tend to make flooding worse, by all of the concrete covering areas that should be absorbing excess water.)

        At some point, resources get stretched too far for all of the necessary bailouts to really happen. We will see how this works in practice. Insurance companies won’t pay very much. They will cover cars for flood damage, if they have “comprehensive” coverage.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Pu… leeeease….

        Don’t try to use logic and facts to prove a point…

        The MSM says Burning More Coal is the cause of this… and the MSM does not lie (saaarrrkkkkk)

    • Duncan Idaho says:

      Well, as some of my gay comrades say:
      The only thing I like better than sucking _____ is kicking ____.

      Perfect military material.

      • xabier says:

        Being a sodomite certainly didn’t stop Alexander the Great from being a mass murderer,so they have a case.

  26. Artleads says:

    No mention of jobs not available or of moving back into mom’s basement. A lot seems to be left out here, but it’s important to look at what is actually going on with cities as we speak.

    Millennials Are Driving the Suburban Resurgence

    “And something interesting about these smaller cities is that it’s not clear whether they’re urban or suburban. We think of “suburbs” as extensions of big metros, but a lot of these smaller, thriving places have a distinctly suburban feel — ranch houses, strip malls, etc., maybe with a few blocks of walkable restaurant/clothing shop areas. But they depend on the clustering of smart people for their productivity, and their populations keep growing. Is that kind of place a city, or a suburb? I don’t even know.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-08-25/millennials-are-driving-the-suburban-resurgence

    • Davidin100trillionyears says:

      “Sen: There’s no reason to think that these decades-long trends will reverse.”

      well, Sen, if you weren’t totally ignorant about the world’s fossil fuel situation, you might just be able to think of at least ONE reason why these trends will not continue.

      • Davidin100trillionyears says:

        “Sen: Noah, we’re trying to figure out which places “are going to be okay,” which ones aren’t and which policy levers have the most impact to help out the places that currently lack a path to success. Our shared destiny depends on it.”

        he’s talking freakin’ POLICY LEVERS!

        hey buddy, here’s our shared destiny:

        peak oil very soon, followed by a declining economy and a wobbling BAU that will likely bring down most of the current wealth of IC.

        freakin’ POLICY LEVERS! can you believe it?

        • Duncan Idaho says:

          Of course you could look at the macro, rather than the micro:

          Population overshoot, 6th Mass Extinction, runaway climate change, resource collapse, ecocide, system collapse, economic fragility—

          • Artleads says:

            Thanks. I always make their seeming intelligence get to me. We need to draw a line in the sand that their smooth BS can’t cross over. It would be systematically applied to all deniers. What is the most obvious breakdown that every level of denier has to acknowledge?

            • Artleads says:

              Graphs showing–real income stagnation?, the transition from single-job breadwinner to several-job breadwinner per household? Overshoot, mass extinction, population overshoot, resource collapse, ecocide, system collapse won’t mean a thing to them. They really have to be stopped in their tracts…somewhere.

            • Artleads says:

              tracks

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Deniers of what?

            • Artleads says:

              “Deniers of what?”

              That all hell is either breaking loose (depending on where you stand) or about to do so.

      • Artleads says:

        If they are blind to obvious things like job loss and declining infrastructure, then they aren’t able to understand fossil fuels. They’ve thought through a lot, and come off to the average reader as innovative and well informed. Where to begin to say, oh no you don’t, open your (bleeping) eyes…? It might take calamity after calamity, but there should be a more rational way to get through to them.

  27. Cliffhanger says:

    Norway’s Arctic Oil Ambitions Suffer As Most Promising Well Yields None

    http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/151562/norways_arctic_oil_ambitions_suffer_as_most_promising_well_yields_none

    • Davidin100trillionyears says:

      bummer.

      peak oil might just come sooner rather than later.

      in the newest published range of 2017-2030, it’s looking like 2017 could even be the winner.

      after that, higher prices will keep the declines at a slow pace…

      maybe very very slow…

      maybe very very very very very slow.

      BAU will be wobbling throughout the 2020’s.

  28. Cliffhanger says:

    Televangelist Jim Bakker: Christians will start a civil war if Trump is impeached

    http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/348418-televangelist-jim-bakker-christians-will-start-new-civil-war-if

    • Artleads says:

      Might makes right…but doesn’t necessarily always make for survival.

      • Duncan Idaho says:

        A least Cheeto Jesus is supplying our local law enforcement:
        “A single discharge from a grenade launcher can do the work that would have previously required an officer to fire 15 or more times at a potential criminal, which is great for departments’ bottom lines,” said lead researcher Grant Sherman, noting that access to an array of surplus Pentagon equipment and firearms would allow police to conserve pricey ammunition when encountering individuals matching the descriptions of burglary perpetrators, responding to reports of minors holding unknown objects, or during routine traffic stops. “No longer will law enforcement have to foot the substantial cost of having five or six responding officers unload their entire clips into a suspicious looking individual on the street when they can instead fire one shell from the roof-mounted cannon of an armored truck. In sum, we expect police forces in the U.S. to save tens of millions of dollars annually.” Sherman added that state and federal corrections departments should also see considerable savings from the initiative, noting that expensive overcrowding would likely abate due to significantly higher and more cost-effective suspect fatality rates.

        • Artleads says:

          Well I DO think the bottom line what drives the managers. So they’ll do anything they can get away, and that they think will maintain their power. We shouldn’t be surprised. They aren’t aware of larger, lurking dangers.

        • Tim Groves says:

          That will teach people to think twice before looking suspicious on the street.

          • xabier says:

            That’s me done for, then.

            Please give the remaining, smoking, fragments a decent funeral. 🙂

          • Artleads says:

            There’s still what serves for public opprobrium against some of that. Physical and cultural segregation means that those on the margins get stomped on first (and nobody cares). But it’s coming for you wherever you are. 🙂

    • xabier says:

      ‘Praying to Jesus, and wacking people on the head.’ (Old Spanish proverb)

      • bakker was more entertaining when he was doing his grab n grope style of evangelism—oh and the occasional bout of weeping for jesus.

        • xabier says:

          Weeping? Jesus must be awfully bored with that sort of thing by now.

          I’m inclined to believe that he’d much prefer good-humoured, slightly sinful, people, with a basically good heart.

          Why else perform that trick with the water?

  29. Cliffhanger says:

    You folks here hear about what happened to Guy Mcpherson the climate doomsday nutter?
    http://imgur.com/a/A61xL

    • I don’t know whether to put this post up or not. It does sound sincere–not something a person would make up. On the other hand, I don’t know what people make up.

      I do know that on the occasions I have met Guy McPherson, he has come across very strangely to me. He comes across as far too polished to fit in with “back to the earth” type activities. He has shown photos of what he did in the wilderness, it they were filled with gleaming stainless steel fixtures and other fanciness, which didn’t fit in at all with the wilderness area he was in. He was supposedly married, but doing all kinds of wilderness activities, with his wife living in another city. He was co-developing the area with a couple, but he couldn’t get along with them. He eventually dropped out of this activity.

      He is indeed an emeritus faculty member https://snre.arizona.edu/people/emeritus in the School of Natural Resources and the Environment within the University of Arizona. But it is hard to tell from what his research area was that he had any particular climate training.

      “Watershed Management and Ecohydrology” “Climate Adaptation and Sustainability, Conservation Biology, Ecology Management and Restoration of Rangelands”

      He interviewed my on his show once, but he clearly had not done much research in advance. Most people who interview me have done more homework.

      • Yorchichan says:

        I used to read NBL many years ago. At first it was unmoderated and Guy liked to flaunt his anarchist credentials. However, when posters came along who were better at debating than his sycophant regulars, Guy banned these posters claiming they were abusive. It appeared to me that in fact they only replied in kind after receiving abuse from Guy’s fans.

        Guy maintained he would only moderate posts abusive to others whereas he would allow any criticism of himself. However, when a post appeared stating he had not voluntarily left the University of Arizona because he was “unable to continue working at the apex of empire”, but rather he was forced to leave after an affair with one of his students (who was named) came to light, the post unsurprisingly disappeared rather quickly!

        • Being given the title of “emeritus professor” before Guy even turned 50 stuck me as strange. Usually, I associate the title “emeritus professor” with retirement. It gives the chance to still carry the business cards of the university, and perhaps still have a few privileges such as a web page listing him as an emeritus professor, and probably the use of an e-mail address if he wants it. He can also serve on school committees and perhaps use the library. But it doesn’t mean a whole lot otherwise.

      • Tim Groves says:

        Guy has responded to this incident by turning on almost everyone he knows in a blogpost complaining that “nearly everyone turns”.

        And from the pompous prose, and without knowing or having followed his work over the years, I am having trouble trying not to judge this guy rather harshly as a narcissist of the first water. But then again, anyone can see he’s going through a hard time at present being accused of improprieties in public. I know I’m old fashioned, but even if he’s old enough to be her father, they are both over 21, so for her to take this “witch hunting” approach seems very sordid and underhand. The post is well worth reading as an example of how not to romanticize one’s own righteousness and generalize about (nearly) everyone else’s failings.

        Well, at least nearly everybody turns. As with a relationship in decline, with friends who say, “we won’t take a side,” essentially everybody then takes a side in the wake of the failed relationship. The chosen “side” is based on rumors, lies, half-truths, and innuendo. Customary for the culture, evidence is neither sought nor considered. Facts rarely change our minds.

        I followed and transmitted the evidence regarding civilization as an omnicidal heat engine. I turned toward the seemingly contrary evidence when it became clear that terminating a civilization in decline would not stop runaway, irreversible climate change. In doing so, I assumed others would follow my evidence-based path. I transformed myself from a popular homesteader to a reviled scientist promulgating evidence nobody wants to know.

        My naïveté became immediately obvious. In restrospect, remaining ignorant and promulgating lies would have allowed me to retain my privilege and my relationships.
        Most turn away from evidence and into their comfort zones. A few, overwhelmed by the overwhelming evidence, are no longer able to deny abrupt climate change leading to the near-term demise of humans on Earth. These latter few are my target audience. I’ve left behind the vast majority, those without ears to hear or eyes to see.

        Noam Chomsky turned shortly before the 2016 presidential election in the United States. Why would I expect others to follow evidence when a leading intellectual makes a hard right turn to support a promoter of genocide?

        American comedian Lee Camp not only turned away from evidence, he took ignorance-rooted potshots along the way. His success at snark-filled comedy is ill-suited for absorbing evidence. And there’s no career for him without an audience. Thus his continued acceptance of snark over evidence.

        Perhaps a few additional examples will help. I’ll not use names beyond Chomsky and Camp, strictly to protect the guilty. Each of the following examples is amalgamated from a few to many people. A couple of them represent nearly everybody I know.

        Exhibit A (for artist) understood immediately. She wasn’t pleased to learn of her near-term death, nor the deaths of her friends and children. Rather, she was devastated. She cried, alone, for a few weeks. And then she began pursuing her dreams with urgency. She became increasingly compassionate, forgiving, and kind. The evidence turned her into a different person, better in many ways. She turned toward the evidence.

        Exhibit B (for bicycle) simply could not budge from his acceptance of anthropogenic climate change as the gradual, we-can-fix-this variety. He knows about fossil fuels and he’s a fan of bicycling, recycling, and electric cars. He’s the consummate negotiator who fails to recognize that nature doesn’t strike deals. He turned away from the evidence when the evidence became uncomfortable.

        Exhibit C (for confused) cannot distinguish me from my message. He’s quick to pass judgment rooted in ignorance of my life. He, and most other individuals within celebrity culture, believes what he prefers instead of what the evidence indicates. He joined Exhibit B in turning away from the evidence when the evidence became uncomfortable.

        A well-known, early promoter of living off grid, an icon in the permaculture community, Exhibit D (for dollars) knows and accepts the evidence leading to our near-term extinction. Or so he tells me privately. Publicly, he promotes “solutions” he knows will not work. As he told me during our latest meal together, there’s money in hope. There’s no money to be had based on organizing, synthesizing, and then sharing the hope-free evidence I share with realists. The evidence turned him into a money-grubbing, status-seeking liar. He turned away from the evidence in exchange for fiat currency.

        Exhibit E (for ex-friend) was never influenced by evidence. She used her relationship with me to build her “brand” as she remained indifferent to the realities imposed by nature. We parted ways when her friends warned her away from me. She readily admits that nature bats last. She won’t admit nature is already at the plate. She didn’t turn. She’s stuck in an era long behind us. She is alone in this list of examples: She didn’t turn. I doubt she will turn until she draws her last, surprised breath.

        Exhibit F (for fear) turned away for that most obvious of reasons: fear. He and his cousin, Exhibit H (for hope), abandoned reason in pursuit of the tomorrow that never comes. Not surprisingly, Exhibits F and H share a workplace with Exhibit C. Also unsurprisingly, the workplace is the K-12 indoctrination camp known as public education. In a culture motivated by the illusion of fiat currency and underpinned by sociopathy, hope and fear have far greater influence than living in the present moment.

        I’m often told that my hope-free perspective automatically makes be a cynic filled with despair. I’m very rarely visited by despair, although I’m saddened by the many adverse consequences of industrial civilization. I’m usually having too much fun to be caught by despair. My version of cynicism matches that of George Carlin: I’m a disappointed idealist. What idealist wouldn’t be, knowing what I know?

        This diverse assortment of individuals imperfectly and incompletely represents the ignorance and indifference I’ve come to expect from the culture I’m trying to escape. Having failed in my lifelong attempts to positively influence the culture into which I was born, escape remains the only viable alternative. And escape is a temporary phenomenon along the path from death-defying adventure to, well, death.

        Exhibits B through H have much in common. They are comfortable with their blinders. They are faithful, rather than skeptical. They haven’t given much thought to their deaths, hence to how they live, but they can talk all day about television, film, and football.

        In other words, as typical examples of individuals within a culture of blind followers, these people know a lot about nothing of significance. In contrast, they know little about their passions, their purposes, their pursuits of excellence, and the importance of love. I suspect they know little about what really matters because the culture in which they are unthinkingly embedded discourages such thoughts. They know the old adage about the nail that sticks up getting pounded down, so they willfully join the herd.

        Is it any wonder the college football coach draws the largest salary in most states within the United States? Is it any wonder human extinction looms? Is it any wonder that, at the edge of extinction, love is the last resort of the masses?

        https://guymcpherson.com/2017/08/everybody-turns/#more-14186

        • Fast Eddy says:

          “A few, overwhelmed by the overwhelming evidence, are no longer able to deny abrupt ____ _____ leading to the near-term demise of humans on Earth”

          You know what I find really f789ing stewpid?

          Let me tell you….

          People who moan and wail about ______ _______ — people who scream from roof tops about this…

          When even if it were real …..

          1. We have NO choice. We MUST burn more car bon — otherwise die

          2. These same fools who moan and wail and offer no solutions — are themselves participating in gang banging the planet by shopping … driving … and using electricity…. and hollering ‘we need to do something – we need to do something’

          A bigger group of idi ots…. I cannot imagine.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          “A few, overwhelmed by the overwhelming evidence, are no longer able to deny abrupt ____ _____ leading to the near-term demise of humans on Earth”

          You know what I find really f789ing stewpid?

          Let me tell you….

          People who moan and wail about ______ _______ — people who scream from roof tops about this…

          When even if it were real …..

          1. We have NO choice. We MUST burn more car bon — otherwise die

          2. These same fools who moan and wail and offer no solutions — are themselves participating in gang banging the planet by shopping … driving … and using electricity…. and hollering ‘we need to do something – we need to do something’

          A bigger group of idi ots…. I cannot imagine.

        • Yorchichan says:

          You can always tell the narcissists from the fact they include their name in the URL of their web site.

          • Tim Groves says:

            Yorchichan, today I came across and read your valiant attempt to reason with one of Guy’s fanboys over at the Doomsday Diner in 2015. I also saw a couple of Norman’s posts on the thread too.

            http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/blog/2015/09/27/debunking-near-term-human-extinction/

            Re. narcissist tendencies, here is Guy’s bio on his website:

            CONSERVATION BIOLOGIST, SOCIAL CRITIC, THOUGHT LEADER, EXPERT WITNESS
            Dr. Guy McPherson is an internationally recognized speaker, award-winning scientist, and the world’s leading authority on abrupt climate change leading to near-term human extinction. He is professor emeritus at the University of Arizona, where he taught and conducted research for twenty years. His published works include 14 books and hundreds of scholarly articles. Dr. McPherson has been featured on TV and radio and in several documentary films. He is a blogger, cultural critic, and co-host of his own radio show “Nature Bats Last.” Dr. McPherson speaks to general audiences across the globe, and to scientists, students, educators, and not-for-profit and business leaders who seek their best available options when confronting Earth’s cataclysmic changes.

            “THOUGHT LEADER”? Isn’t that also Mika Brzezinski’s job description?

          • Yorchichan says:

            Tim,

            If you are interested in Guy’s work, this was his most famous essay and the one that finally persuaded me he’d lost it:

            https://guymcpherson.com/2012/06/were-done/

            In reply is probably the only half decent comment I’ve ever posted:

            https://guymcpherson.com/2012/06/were-done/#comment-43054

            (It was prior to my taxiing days when sleep deprivation had not yet robbed me of my few remaining brain cells.)

          • Tim Groves says:

            Cheers! I’ve been reading a fair amount Guy’s online work over the past couple of days and I find him extremely intense, and with an idiot savant’s attention to the details that he regards as important, bringing up the same references in post after post. He collects his facts with the assiduity and the selectivity of a squirrel gathering nuts for the winter and arranges them in logical chains that point towards certain definite conclusions. In that respect, he has mastered one of the essential attributes of the scholar.

            But logical chains are only as good as their weakest links, and the pertinent facts one doesn’t collect (either by ignoring them or being ignorant of their existence) are often more important than those one does. Guy seems to have a filter to eliminate or invalidate inconvenient facts that might get in the way while he’s creating his scenarios or slow down the speed of his ranting—because ranting is what he does, like a good old-fashioned preacher, rapidly piling on fact after fact in a built up to an emotional crescendo without giving himself of the reader pause for breath or discussing the pros and cons or the validity of said facts.

            This May, for instance, Guy wrote the paragraphs below. He insists he’s not predicting, so we must take it that he’s adumbrating (Adumbrate: To give a sketchy outline of; to prefigure indistinctly; foreshadow; to disclose partially or guardedly; to overshadow; shadow or obscure. Note the “-umbra-“, as in penumbra and umbrella). Some literally-minded souls may take these adumbrations for predictions or prophecies of imminent doom, and understandably some sensitive souls might be scared or even suicidal upon reading them. So it’s just as well Guy is also a a certified grief-recovery specialist.

            We’re headed for an ice-free Arctic, as predicted by the United States Naval Postgraduate School. This event last happened some 3 million years ago, before our genus appeared on Earth. In 2013, the School predicted an ice-free Arctic in 2016, plus or minus three years. We’ve dodged four bullets so far, and it appears our luck is about to run out. An ice-free Arctic, which appears imminent this summer, seems likely to trigger the 50-Gt burst of methane from the relatively shallow sea floor of the Arctic Ocean described by field researcher Natalia Shakhova and colleagues at the European Geophysical Union meeting in 2008 as “highly possible for abrupt release at any time.” Such as event would raise global-average temperature beyond the temperature experienced by humans in the past, and almost certainly would cause the demise of civilization as a result of our inability to produce and store grains at large scale, thereby adding another 3 C or so to global-average temperature. Thus could Earth reach 19.C C, about 6 C above the 1750 baseline of 13.5 C, by next summer. That’s in 14 months.
            People in bunkers might survive a few years. They’ll be dehydrated, hungry, lonely, and living within a bleak world nearly devoid of other complex life. Their survival will be a day-to-day proposition, with every day more tenuous than the day before, much as it is today for non-human species.
            Or perhaps civilization will reach its overdue end as a result of the demise of the petro-dollar this September, consistent with the kinds of events that have occurred historically during past Septembers. I’m not predicting this outcome. And I’m not ruling it out. If it occurs, we can expect an abrupt global-average rise in temperature well beyond the temperature at which Earth has harbored anything resembling humans. Most people dwelling in cities will die within a few days as a result of dehydration or starvation. October 1 is 120 days away.

            On a brighter note, for those worried about that 50-Gt burst of methane, Guy’s fears about “an ice-free Arctic imminent this summer” have not come to pass. According to NSIDC, “On August 21, 2017, ice extent stood at 5.27 million square kilometers (2.03 million square miles). This was 1.82 million square kilometers (703,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 median extent for the same day, and 804,000 square kilometers (310,000 square miles) and 221,000 square kilometers (85,000 square miles) above the 2012 and 2007 extents for the same day, respectively.” This persistent late summer Arctic sea ice is just one of many inconvenient facts, Guy doesn’t take into account when adumbrating about thermageddon. Indeed he mustn’t. If he were to acknowledge it at all, it would be as another dodged bullet for humanity, not as a cannonball strike on his hypothesis of planetary death by steaming.

            • scientifically speaking, i’m not really au fait with this polar ice fluctuation thing, but isn’t there some aspect of it which deals with ice thickness rather than extent

              ie—the ice can show increases in area or not, year on year, but i think a lot of it is just 1 year old ice, whereas what really counts is ice that builds up over years and presents a permanent cover.

              i think youll find that this is the main problem

              i dont think the inuit and polar bears are in on the ice hoax, if there is one

            • Yorchichan says:

              Norman

              As long as the water at the Arctic has an ice covering, it cannot warm up much. The energy required for the phase change from ice to water is huge, about 80% of the energy that would heat the same mass of water from 0C to 100C. Once the ice covering has gone, the energy that would have been absorbed by the ice will warm up the Arctic waters quickly. In addition the reflectivity of the ice is lost. The warmer water could potentially destabilize methane hydrates on the shallow ocean floor, leading to a ‘methane burb’.

              That’s the theory. Whether the thickness of the ice is more important than the area covered would obviously depend on the exact location and depth of the methane hydrates.

              Tim

              In Guy’s defence, it was one of his essays that first alerted my to OFW a couple of years ago.

    • Slow Paul says:

      Serena has been a regular guest on the show for the last 6 months or so, should be easy to verify if this is real or not. Guy has a lot of haters.

      • Slow Paul says:

        https://guymcpherson.com/2017/08/im-mostly-done/

        Posted August 26th. He says he is shutting down his radio show and social media communications…

        • Strange timing, I agree.

          I did look at what Guy McPherson says about his education on Linked In. He says “B.S. in Forestry from University of Idaho; Ph.D. in Range Science from Texas Tech University.” That would go along with my impression of little or no advanced education in climate science.

          • Slow Paul says:

            He has also been predicting global financial crash with a corresponding catastrophic runaway GW-event in September 2017. So he has literally put all of his doomer eggs in one basket.

            • Yorchichan says:

              He also predicted the collapse of IC by the end of 2012, so don’t hold your breath.

            • Cliffhanger says:

              He is going full blown Michael Ruppert now babbling on about the deep state coming to get him

            • Tim Groves says:

              What you young bucks don’t appreciate because you are still young bucks, is that most men go through something known as the andropause in their fifties. It’s associated with the slow but steady drop in testosterone and the diminishing ability to handle the consequences of stress philologically, plus the in-your-face knowledge that you are now on the fast train to decline, decrepitude and death—no more dreams of invincibility and immortality for you, my lad.

              Basically it’s a whole new ball game and the middle aged male—particularly the boomer-generation American middle aged male—has a hard time crossing over the river into graceful seniority, senility and sagacity.

              Mike Ruppert was one of those who had a breakdown in his fifties and never completely recovered. On the other hand, he did exemplify the witticism, “Just because you’re paranoid, it doesn’t follow that they’re not out to get you.”

      • Artleads says:

        I spent a few years posting/reading on NBL. Despite saying a permanent goodbye a couple years back, I’m still grateful for Guy’s efforts. Because of him, I got imprinted with a much heightened sense of urgency. Extinction wasn’t up in the year. It was ongoing and immediate. And I was impressed at how repeatedly he would stress the responsibility of privileged white men for this mess. Not that I ever doubted it; but it was good to hear it from a privileged white man himself.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Can you explain how privileged white men are responsible for the mess

          As for mess… I see no mess… what do you mean by mess

          • Artleads says:

            🙂 Nothing much except near term extinction. Please don’t tell me it’s simply the human condition to go extinct in exactly the way we’re doing extinct. Then we’d get into your free will argument against mine.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Feel free to explain the other path that was open to us.

              Keeping in mind … the hunter gatherer lifestyle is the only path that would be even remotely sustainable.

              Expecting hunter gatherers to eschew fire and blaming them for embracing it and shifting to farming …. is like expecting your dog to come into the house in the winter and not curl up next to the fire.

              It is like expecting yeast to not consumer the sugar in the bowl.

              There is no free will — if you think there is then feel free to reject BAU and run into the wild — take Duncan with you as well so he can stop posting his hypocritical rubbish on FW

              Of course neither of you will walk that walk… just as the hunter gatherers rejected that option.

              There is no need to have the free will argument – the fact that you moan about what man has done — yet you continue to participate in the orgy — is evidence of that fact that free will does not exist

              You are an animal. And when it comes right down to it… humans run on the same programs as every other animal.

            • yup

              but dont tell the godbotherers

  30. Duncan Idaho says:

    It is Zero Brain, but take a look:

    Ford To Abandon “Traditional Credit Scores” For Underwriting Decisions As Sales Stall
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-25/ford-credit-abandon-traditional-credit-scores-sales-stall-and-subprime-delinquencies

    • Davidin100trillionyears says:

      Ford sees additional competition ahead:

      when those half a million “flood cars” are moved north from Houston and sold on the used car market.

      though all Texans will be able to buy new Ford cars even if they can’t afford them.

      afFord them.

      ha ha ha ha ha.

      I’m funny.

      yuk yuk.

      • I found a couple of articles about resale of Flood-Damaged cars.

        http://consumer.georgia.gov/consumer-topics/flood-damaged-vehicles

        “Consumers should be warned that many previously-flooded vehicles are recycled into the economy and end up being resold. In the months following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, large numbers of such vehicles were released into the marketplace. These may have been the property of dealers, fleet owners, or individuals and may have been written off as “salvage” or “totaled” by insurance companies in other states, though this may not appear on the title.”

        “With new or recently-shampooed upholstery and carpeting, and perhaps some body work, the damage on these vehicles may be very well disguised and difficult for even a professional to detect. Nonetheless, electrical problems are practically guaranteed, and the brakes, airbags and computer system may have been seriously compromised.”

        This ABS News article is called “Flooded cars go to market with little to stop them.” http://abcnews.go.com/Business/LifeStages/story?id=3504293&page=1 It is from 2009, but it is quite possible that it is true today. It says

        •A crazy quilt of state vehicle laws allows unscrupulous sellers to “wash” flood designations from vehicle titles by registering them in states that don’t recognize water damage as trouble.

        •The federal government has yet to fully implement a 15-year-old law creating a national database of vehicle histories. Many states still aren’t participating.

  31. Cliffhanger says:

    Japan, US look to cut off North Korea’s oil supply

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Pyongyang-provocation/Japan-US-look-to-cut-off-North-Korea-s-oil-supply

    This is how the US provoked Japan into attacking Pearl Harbor.

  32. psile says:

    It appears that tropical storm Harvey (nee Hurricane Harvey) is reforming its structure. Maybe becoming another CAT 1/2 hurricane?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6f03b9e2b5ec1d24f3aacfb4bab4041e7a7df5517bf36aa7d5de432f1fa7fff5.gif?w=800&h=480

    Trillions of tons of water are currently being sucked into it again, fed by the superheated waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

    http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/plots/gulf_buoy_watertemp.jpg

  33. psile says:

    The Onion is really producing some spot on articles nowadays. Once it was considered just a parody site, but now, the real world is the parody, and the Onion casts a fine mirror to that.

    Houston Residents Begin Surveying Damage Of 200 Years Of Unchecked Worldwide Industrialization

    “HOUSTON—Appearing shellshocked as they took in the scenes of devastation around them, Houston residents reportedly emerged from their homes Monday to survey the damage caused by 200 years of rampant, worldwide industrialization. “Oh my God. Everything’s destroyed, everywhere you look,” said visibly stunned citizen Chris Marciano, one of the 2.3 million locals who stared silently, buried their faces in their hands, or broke down in tears at the sight of entire neighborhoods and business centers that had been wiped out by generations of aggressive, unregulated expansion of mass production methods and transportation technologies and the resultant exponential growth in harmful gas emissions. “We’ve lost everything, absolutely everything. I’ve never seen destruction like this before. If only there had been some way this could have been prevented.” At press time, officials were urging citizens all along the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf Coast to prepare for similar emergencies, warning that the centuries of unrestrained global manufacturing growth that hit Houston could strike anywhere, any time.”

  34. Houston says bridges, roads starting to fail under stress of flooding

    http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL2N1LF1GL

    • Cliffhanger says:

      Joel Osteen Sails Luxury Yacht Through Flooded Houston To Pass Out Copies Of ‘Your Best Life Now’

      http://babylonbee.com/news/joel-osteen-sails-luxury-yacht-flooded-houston-pass-copies-best-life-now/

      • Greg Machala says:

        Shirley you must be jokiing! And people are not shooting at him?

        • Greg Machala says:

          That is satire.

          • Cliffhanger says:

            The article is hilarious. “He’s shouting “When you think positive, excellent thoughts, you will be propelled toward greatness!”, smiling for photo opps, and having his handlers escort the families back to their lifeboats and tree logs.”

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Reminds me of when I went to Haiti after the quake — a missionary approached me and she said – are you here with a Christian group — I asked her if they were helping rebuild — or offering medical aid — oh no — we teach the children about god — we give them literature and play Christian games with the kids…

        Despair = opportunity …. for some.

        But then humans are so steeewpid – they deserve it — the logical conclusion would be that god is a real sun of a biiitch — a cruel monster —- why else would he bring such suffering upon us?

        • xabier says:

          Or, as Marcus Aurelius put it:

          If the gods have deliberately caused this and it is truly evil, then we should abandon the gods, as they are not worthy of worship.

    • Greg Machala says:

      The dam is 70 years old. A lot of aging infrastructure out there under the radar.

    • dont worry

      wind turbines and solar panels will save the day

      • greg machala says:

        Warning sarcasm ahead! Not only will solar panels save the day, they will rebuild Houston and return it to prosperity. Houston, the US energy capital, will become a solar powerhouse. It will leave all of silicon valley behind and massively revolutionize solar power bringing wealth to the region unlike anything Texas has ever seen. It will be so colossal in scale that Houston will completely abandon its polluting fossil fuel roots and begin anew with green energy technologies that will make Elon blush. This incredible journey is about to begin and it is this journey that will ultimately lead to the America becoming great again.

        • Jesse James says:

          I imagine Houston will abandon its “polluting fossil fuel roots” when you and 7 billion other people do. Tell me, do you drive a car, or ride around in one?

        • Fast Eddy says:

          This is the opportunity we have been waiting for — Texas is going green!

  35. Lastcall says:

    The economist Paul Romer at New York University has recently begun calling attention to an issue he dubs ‘mathiness’ – first in the paper ‘Mathiness in the Theory of Economic Growth’ (2015) and then in a series of blog posts. Romer believes that macroeconomics, plagued by mathiness, is failing to progress as a true science should, and compares debates among economists to those between 16th-century advocates of heliocentrism and geocentrism

    https://aeon.co/essays/how-economists-rode-maths-to-become-our-era-s-

  36. Cliffhanger says:

    How we all think now, in an energy glut that enables relative abundance in the Western world, is starkly different to how our minds would operate under scarcity. Research has shown that if a human experiences scarcity, valuable mental processes such as strategic and long term planning, social intelligence and lateral thinking are heavily affected in favour of focusing on what the body needs in the short-term, producing a different set of behavioural schemas. Under a scarce environment then, you would quite simply be a different person to the one that has thus far lived in comparative security and stability.

    An interesting parallel that can be drawn is that of an energy-rich civilization; energy allows for increased complexity of social roles, services and technologies, and allows greater permissiveness due to the growing distance between the individual and their means to survival. An individual’s daily life is divorced from what sustains them and becomes embroiled in their own corner of the complexity. As less net energy enters the civilization’s thermal system, these complexities contract and break-down, and the individual is brought closer to their means to survive due to the collapse of their support systems and supply lines.

    The mind may see the same dynamic at play; while in abundance, the brain has enough spare energy for nuance, abstract thought and permissiveness as it isn’t occupied with finding food, processing it, and maintaining shelter and warmth. As scarcity takes hold, the more complex processes are shut off in favour of these survival processes; like a smartphone preserving charge. Many of us who hold certain ideologies or frames of mind now, regardless of our knowledge of the coming collapse, will see their minds change rapidly when actually faced with it, producing individuals who think in the complete opposite manner than before the collapse hit. The point to make here then, is this sub, perhaps more than all others, should ideally be more reticent. Entrenching yourself in one ideological position or another before the resource base that shapes those ideologies changes, is leaving yourself vulnerable to an inability to adapt to new realities.

    Mullainathan, S., & Shafir, E. (2013). Scarcity: Why having too little means so much. New York, NY: Times Books.\
    Shah, A., Mullainathan, S., & Shafir, E. (2012). Some consequences of having too little. Science, 338, 682–685.

    • JT Roberts says:

      Interesting and makes sense. That would explain the drama at the Universities. Because of having lived a resource rich life the young people have lost critical thinking that scarcity provides. The only recourse they have is to throw a tantrum, expecting as it has in the past, to provide them with what they need. Lets call it the Marie Antoinette moment.

      The converse are the inner city youth growing up in poverty. They will be well equipped to face scarcity and likely will feel puzzled by the drama coming from the privileged classes. It’s like the French Revolution on a grand scale.

    • xabier says:

      Scarcity is trauma – repeated traumas (every day, what will I eat, if at all?) – , and one supposes must lead to PTSD, and probably permanent character changes.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      That lines up with the experiences I have had in the 3rd world…

      People tend to be much closer to the edge of survival — and they often do not act in what we would call a ‘civil’ manner… they do not follow the same rules that we — who have more than enough – do

  37. interesting take on the OFW view of the future

    already in Houston water is selling at vastly inflated prices—and that’s after just a few days

    • SymbolikGirl says:

      This exactly, too many people focus on scarcity of food when it is the lack of clean, fresh water that presents the most danger. I could see in a large-scale grid-down scenario far more people contracting diseases like Cholera and Dysentery and passing away than starving to death, Yemen is a good example of this. I watched the lead up videos in Houston and saw that far too many people were socking up on food but not nearly enough water, at least in this case there is still functioning society outside the floodzone to hopefully get more water into the area.

      • Good points!

      • why should it be necessary to scream the obvious

        imminent disaster—no1 water goes off—it just does

        i live on a hill, but i have 600L of water storage, and 75L of drinking water storage available.
        When catastrophe looms, you fill water containers—why should it be necessary to even say it?

        • i1 says:

          Large swaths of the American public don’t even know that rain water is drinkable.

          • Duncan Idaho says:

            In Micronesia, i used rainwater off the roof, into a split bamboo gutter, into a 55 gallon drum.
            You get innovative without electricity or running water.

        • Jesse James says:

          I have over 50,000 gallons of water stored. That does not count a pond out back

      • Volvo740 says:

        You just need a 55 gal drum, empty, and when you see the storm coming start filling it with city water. Should last you a month.

      • xabier says:

        Cholera and dysentery: hello, old friends. The reports from Yemen are truly shocking.

        • xabier says:

          The next stage in collapse of health seems to be when typhus appears: from what I gather, the determining factor there is the spread of lice, always associated with deep poverty and over-crowding, and lack of water access. Very difficult to eliminate form the seams of clothing, once they have got a foothold.

          Bizarrely, the elimination of lice was one of the major pre-occupations of the Germans in Auschwitz – they didn’t want people dying of infection before they were ‘selected.’

    • Greg Machala says:

      That is why they need truckloads of cash LOL!

    • I can believe that. Potable water becomes a problem, very early.

  38. Greg Machala says:

    Is it just me or does this article make cash seem like magic fairy dust: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/29/fed-is-ready-to-truck-cash-to-harvey-devastated-areas-richard-fisher.html

  39. Cliffhanger says:

    Joel Osteen, criticized for closing his Houston megachurch to Harvey victims, relents

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/joel-osteen-criticized-for-closing-his-houston-megachurch-amid-flooding-2017-08-28

    Their “morals” their “Code”. It’s a sick joke. Dropped at the first signs of trouble. -The Joker

    • Duncan Idaho says:

      Cabbages For Christ are so transparent in their greed.

    • Greg Machala says:

      If it were not for Osteen bilking the gullible, someone else (with no ethical or moral standards) would fill the void. Osteen’s $10.5M abode is rather disgusting for a supposed messenger of God.

      • xabier says:

        As the Orthodox would say: ‘His good fortune shows that God loves him.’ 🙂

        • Yadayada says:

          Try getting that through the eye of a needle.
          What sort of orthodox?

        • Fast Eddy says:

          “Believe and declare you are coming into a shift!” Osteen yelled through a bullhorn, according to reports. “God wants His best for you! Enlarge your vision, develop a healthy self image, and choose to be happy!”

          “When you think positive, excellent thoughts, you will be propelled toward greatness!” he called out to one family floating on a raft on a freeway-turned-river, whose earthly possessions had been entirely destroyed the previous day.

          Why doesn’t someone snipe him with a high-powered rifle?

      • psile says:

        More like Satan’s messenger.

      • just jellus cos god didnt choose you as his messenger

    • They say they are waiting until other shelters are full. The photo is full of air mattresses.

    • Greg Machala says:

      I think this will be a bigger problem than folks realize as more and more people cannot afford insurance or deductibles.

    • Robert Hunter is an actuary, whom I have met. What he says sounds correct to me.

      Flood insurance is a problem for many reasons:

      1. People like to build in low-lying areas, and government officials don’t like to discourage this, because such building adds to tax revenue.

      2. The government has a subsidized flood insurance program, but people still think the rates are too high, even at the subsidized rates.

      3. Giving people subsidized flood insurance encourages building in low-lying areas. Once building is done, rain has nowhere to go, making the flooding problem all that much worse.

      4. The solution in the past has been lots of loans for people in the area. But this has difficulties, especially for people living paycheck to paycheck.

      5. The government in theory could do bailouts, but it is in such bad financial shape now, there is substantial doubt that it can pass a budget, without subsidizing Hurricane Harvey bailouts.

      6. The National Flood Insurance Program is expiring on September 30, 2017. And it would not be surprising if Hurricane Harvey pushes the program past its $30 billion borrowing limit. Unless these problems get fixed, it is possible that even those with flood insurance will have reimbursement problems. The second article linked suggests that claims might be paid, as premiums for other flood insurance are collected, adding a delay to the claim payment process. Of course, if this procedure is followed and another flood comes along, we again have a problem. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/28/harvey-could-overwhelm-federal-flood-insurance-program.html http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2017/08/28/462472.htm

      • Greg Machala says:

        Wonder how many people have significant flood damage, a mortgage and no flood insurance? Sounds like a majority of the homes that are flooded according to that article.
        Wonder how many will walk away from their mortgages?

  40. Harry Gibbs says:

    “Norway’s hope of discovering a large oilfield in the Barents Sea has suffered a major setback after the far north Arctic’s most promising reservoir turned out to contain only small amounts of natural gas.

    “Statoil, the country’s top oil and gas producer, has stepped up drilling in the Barents Sea this year as the government seeks to attract more explorers to its Arctic waters to make up for declining North Sea output.

    “However, Statoil said on Tuesday that after drilling the northernmost exploration well in the highly anticipated Korpfjell prospect it had found only non-commercial quantities of gas and no oil…”

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/statoil-draws-a-blank-in-billion-barrel-arctic-oil-exploration-1.3202176

    • Greg Machala says:

      Running out of places to drill. The geology that makes economic oil, isn’t very widespread – unfortunately.

      • Davidin100trillionyears says:

        that’s why 2017 may be the year of peak oil.

      • Slow Paul says:

        Yes. There are more promising and easier accessible prospects along the northern coast but drilling there is banned because these are also major fishing areas. I suspect the ban will be lifted eventually.

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