World GDP in current US dollars is in some sense the simplest world GDP calculation that a person might make. It is calculated by taking the GDP for each year for each country in the local currency (for example, yen) and converting these GDP amounts to US dollars using the then-current relativity between the local currency and the US dollar.
To get a world total, all a person needs to do is add together the GDP amounts for all of the individual countries. There is no inflation adjustment, so comparing GDP growth amounts calculated on this basis gives an indication regarding how the world economy is growing, inclusive of inflation. Calculation of GDP on this basis is also inclusive of changes in relativities to the US dollar.
What has been concerning for the last couple of years is that World GDP on this basis is no longer growing robustly. In fact, it may even have started shrinking, with 2014 being the peak year. Figure 1 shows world GDP on a current US dollar basis, in a chart produced by the World Bank.
Figure 1. World GDP in “Current US Dollars,” in chart from World Bank website.
Since the concept of GDP in current US dollars is not a topic that most of us are very familiar with, this post, in part, is an exploration of how GDP and inflation calculations on this basis fit in with other concepts we are more familiar with.
As I look at the data, it becomes clear that the reason for the downturn in Current US$ GDP is very much related to topics that I have been writing about. In particular, it is related to the fall in oil prices since mid-2014 and to the problems that oil producers have been having since that time, earning too little profit on the oil they sell. A similar problem is affecting natural gas and coal, as well as some other commodities. These low prices, and the deflation that they are causing, seem to be flowing through to cause low world GDP in current US dollars.
Figure 2. Average per capita wages computed by dividing total “Wages and Salaries” as reported by US BEA by total US population, and adjusting to 2016 price level using CPI-Urban. Average inflation adjusted oil price is based primarily on Brent oil historical oil price as reported by BP, also adjusted by CPI-urban to 2016 price level.
While energy products seem to be relatively small compared to world GDP, in fact, they play an outsized role. This is the case partly because the use of energy products makes GDP growth possible (energy provides heat and movement needed for industrial processes), and partly because an increase in the price of energy products indirectly causes an increase in the price of other goods and services. This growth in prices makes it possible to use debt to finance goods and services of all types.
A decrease in the price of energy products has both positive and negative impacts. The major favorable effect is that the lower prices allow the GDPs of oil importers, such as the United States, European Union, Japan, and China, to grow more rapidly. This is the effect that has predominated so far.
The negative impacts appear more slowly, so we have seen less of them so far. One such negative impact is the fact that these lower prices tend to produce deflation rather than inflation, making debt harder to repay. Another negative impact is that lower prices (slowly) push companies producing energy products toward bankruptcy, disrupting debt in a different way. A third negative impact is layoffs in affected industries. A fourth negative impact is lower tax revenue, particularly for oil exporting countries. This lower revenue tends to lead to cutbacks in governmental programs and to disruptions similar to those seen in Venezuela.
In this post, I try to connect what I am seeing in the new data (GDP in current US$) with issues I have been writing about in previous posts. It seems to me that there is no way that oil and other energy prices can be brought to an adequate price level because we are reaching an affordability limit with respect to energy products. Thus, world GDP in current dollars can be expected to stay low, and eventually decline to a lower level. Thus, we seem to be encountering peak GDP in current dollars.
Furthermore, in the years ahead the negative impacts of lower oil and other energy prices can be expected to start predominating over the positive impacts. This change can be expected to lead to debt-related financial problems, instability of governments of oil exporters, and falling energy consumption of all kinds.
Peak Per Capita Energy Consumption Is Part of the Problem, Too
One problem that makes our current situation much worse than it might otherwise be is the fact that world per capita energy consumption seems to have hit a maximum in 2013 (Figure 3).
Figure 3. World Daily Per Capita Energy Consumption, based on primary energy consumption from BP Statistical Review of World Energy and 2017 United Nations population estimates.
Surprisingly, this peak in consumption occurred before oil and other energy prices collapsed, starting in mid-2014. At these lower prices, a person would think that consumers could afford to buy more energy goods per person, not fewer.
Per capita energy consumption should be rising with lower prices, unless the reason for the fall in prices is an affordability problem. If the drop in prices reflects an affordability problem (wages of most workers are not high enough to buy the goods and services made with energy products, such as homes and cars), then we would expect the pattern we are seeing today–low oil and other energy prices, together with falling per capita consumption. If the reason for falling per capita energy consumption is an affordability problem, then there is little hope that prices will rise sufficiently to fix our current problem.
One consideration supporting the hypothesis that we are really facing an affordability problem is the fact that in recent years, energy prices have been too low for companies producing oil and other energy products. Since 2015, hundreds of oil, natural gas, and coal companies have gone bankrupt. Saudi Arabia has had to borrow large amounts of money to fund its budget, because at current prices, tax revenues are too low to fund it. In the United States, investors are cutting back on their support for oil investment, because of the continued financial losses of the companies and evidence that approaches for mitigating these losses are not really working.
Which Countries Are Suffering Falling GDP in Current US Dollars?
With lower oil prices, Saudi Arabia is one of the countries with falling GDP in Current US$.
Figure 4. Increase in GDP since 1990 for Saudi Arabia in current US dollars, based on World Bank Data.
Saudi Arabia pegs its currency to the dollar, so its lower GDP is not because its currency has fallen relative to the US dollar; instead, it reflects a situation in which fewer goods and services of all kinds are being produced, as measured in US dollars. GDP calculations do not consider debt, so Figure 4 indicates that even with all of Saudi Arabia’s borrowing to offset falling oil revenue, the quantity of goods and services it was able to produce fell in both 2015 and 2016.
Other oil-producing countries are clearly having problems as well, but data is often missing from the World Bank database for these countries. For example, Venezuela is clearly having problems with low oil prices, but GDP amounts for the country are missing for 2014, 2015, and 2016. (Somehow, world totals seem to include estimates of the total omitted amounts, however.)
Figure 5 shows similar ratios to Figure 4 for a number of other commodity producing countries.
Figure 5. GDP patterns, in US current dollars, for selected resource exporting countries, based on World Bank data.
A comparison of Figures 4 and 5 shows that the GDP patterns for these countries are similar to that of Saudi Arabia. Because resources (including oil) do not account for as large a share of GDP for these countries as for Saudi Arabia, the peak as a percentage of 1990 GDP isn’t quite as high as for Saudi Arabia. But the trend is still downward, with 2014 typically the peak year.
We can also look at similar information for the historically big consumers of oil, coal and natural gas, namely the United States, the European Union, and Japan.
Figure 6. Increase in GDP since 1990 for the United States, the European Union, and Japan, in current US dollars, based on World Bank data.
Here, we find the growth trend is much more subdued than for the countries shown in the previous two charts. I have purposely put the upper limit of the scale of this chart at 6 times the 1990 GDP level. This limit is similar to the upper limit on earlier charts, to emphasize how much more slowly these countries have been growing, compared to the countries shown in Figures 4 and 5.
In fact, for the European Union and Japan, GDP in current US$ is now lower than it has been in recent years. Figure 6 is telling us that the goods and services produced in these countries are now lower in US dollar value than they were a few years ago. Since part of the cost of goods and services is used to pay wages, this lower relativity indirectly implies that the wages of workers in the EU and Japan are falling, relative to the cost of buying goods and services priced in US dollars. Thus, even apart from taxes added by these countries, consumers in the EU and Japan have been falling behind in their ability to buy energy products priced in US dollars.
Figure 6 indicates that the United States has been doing relatively better than the European Union and Japan, in terms of the value of goods and services produced each year continuing to grow. If we look back at Figure 2, however, we see that even in the US, wage growth has lagged far behind oil price increases. Thus, the US was also likely headed toward an affordability problem relating to goods and services made with oil.
The Asian exporting nations have been doing relatively better in keeping their economies growing, despite the downward pressure on energy prices.
Figure 7. Increase in GDP since 1990 for selected rapidly growing Asian exporting countries in current US dollars, based on World Bank data.
The two most rapidly growing countries are China and Vietnam. There seems to be a recent slowing of their growth rates, but no actual downturn.
India, Pakistan, and the Philippines are growing less rapidly. They do not seem to be experiencing any downturn at all.
Considering the indications of Figure 4 through 7, it appears that only a relatively small share of countries have experienced rising GDP in current US dollars. Although we have not looked at all possible groupings, the countries that seem to be doing best in terms of rising current US$ GDP are countries that are exporters of manufactured goods, including the Asian countries shown. Countries that derive significant GDP from producing energy products and other commodities seem to be experiencing falling GDP in current US dollars.
To fix the problems shown here, we would need to get prices of oil and other energy products back up again. This would indirectly raise prices of many other products as well, including food, new vehicles, and new homes. With lagging wages in many countries, this would seem to be virtually impossible to accomplish.
The Wide Range of GDP Indications We See
In this post, I am talking about GDP of various countries, converted to a US$ basis. This is not quite the same as the GDP that we normally read about. It is not until a person starts working with world data that a person appreciates how different the various GDP and inflation calculations are.
GDP in US dollars is very important because energy products, including oil, are generally priced in US$. This seems to be true, whether or not the currency used in the actual transaction is US$. See Appendix A for charts showing the close connection between these two items.
The type of GDP is generally reported is inflation-adjusted (also called “real”) GDP. The assumption is made that no one will care (very much) about inflation rates. In general, inflation-adjusted GDP figures are much more stable than those in Current US$. This can be seen by comparing world GDP in Figure 8 with that shown in Figure 1.
Figure 8. GDP in 2010 US dollars, for the world and for the United States, based on World Bank data.
Using inflation-adjusted world GDP data, there doesn’t seem to be any kind of crisis ahead. The last major problem was in the 2008-2009 period. Even the impact of this crisis appears to be fairly small. The 2008-2009 crisis shows up more distinctly in the Current US$ amounts plotted in Figure 1.
World GDP growth figures that are published by the World Bank and others combine country by country data using some type of weighting approach. Economists tend to use an approach called Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). This approach gives a great deal more weight to developing nations than the US dollar weighted approach used elsewhere in this post. For example, under the PPP approach, China seems to get a weighting of about 1.9 times its GDP in US$; India seems to get a weighting of about 3.8 times its GDP in US$. The United States gets a weight of 1.0 times its GDP in US$, and the weights for developed nations tend to be fairly close to 1.0 times their GDP in US$. The world GDP we see published regularly should be called “inflation-adjusted world GDP, calculated with PPP weights.”
The relationship among the three types of GDP can be seen in Figure 9. It is clear that GDP growth in Current US$ is far more variable than the inflation-adjusted growth rate (in 2010 US$). PPP inflation-adjusted GDP growth is consistently higher than GDP growth with US dollar weighting.
Figure 9. World GDP Growth in three alternative measures: Current dollars, Inflation-adjusted GDP is in 2010 US$ and adjusted to purchasing power parity (PPP).
It is also clear from Figure 9 that there is also a big “Whoops” in the most recent years. Economic growth is at a record low level, as calculated in Current US$.
World “Inflation” Indications
The typical way of calculating inflation is by looking at prices of a basket of goods in a particular currency, such as the yen, and seeing how the prices change over a period of time. To get an inflation rate for a group of countries (such as the G-20), inflation rates of various countries are weighted together using some set of weights. My guess is that these weights might be the PPP weights used in calculating world GDP.
In Figure 10, I calculate implied world inflation using a different approach. Since the World Bank publishes World GDP both in 2010 US$ and in Current US$, I calculate the implied world inflation rate by comparing these two sets of values. (Some people might call what I am calculating the implicit price deflator for GDP, rather than an inflation rate.) I use three-year averages to smooth out year-to-year variability in these amounts.
Figure 10. World inflation rate calculated by comparing reported World GDP in Current US$ to reported World GDP in 2010 US$. Both of these amounts are available at the World Bank website.
The implied world inflation rates using this approach are fairly different from published inflation rates. In part, this is because the calculations take into account changing relativities of currencies. There may be other factors as well, such as the inclusion of countries that would not normally be included in aggregations. Inflation rates tend to be high when demand for energy products is high, and low when demand for energy products is low.
Figure 10 shows that, on a world basis, there have been negative inflation rates three times since 1963–in approximately 1983-1984; in the late 1990s to early 2000s; and since about 2014. If we compare these dates to the oil price and energy consumption data on Figures 2 and 3, we see that these time periods are ones that are marked by falling per capita energy consumption and by low oil prices. In some sense, these are the time periods when the economy is/was trying to stall, for lack of adequate demand for oil.
The workaround used to “fix” the lack of demand in the late 1990s to early 2000s seems to have been an increased focus on globalization. China’s growth in particular was very important, because it added both a rapidly growing supply of cheap energy from coal and a great deal of demand for energy products. The addition of coal effectively lowered the average price of energy products so that they were again affordable by a large share of the world population. The availability of debt to pull the Chinese and other Asian economies forward was no doubt of importance as well.
The United States has been fairly protected from much of what has happened because its currency, the US Dollar, is the world’s reserve currency. If we look at the inflation rate of the United States using data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the last time the United States had a substantial period of contracting prices was in the US Depression of the 1930s. It is quite possible that such a situation existed worldwide, but I do not have world data for that period.
Figure 11. US inflation rate (really “GDP Deflator”) obtained by comparing US GDP in 2009 US$ to GDP in Current US $, based on US Bureau of Economic Analysis data.
It was during the Depression of the 1930s that debt defaults became widespread. It was only through deficit spending, including the significant debt-based funding for World War II, that the problem of inadequate demand for goods and services was completely eliminated.
How Do We Solve Our World Deflation Crisis This Time
There seem to be three ways of creating demand for goods and services.
[1] A growing supply of cheap-to-produce energy products is really the basic way of increasing demand through economic growth.
If there are cheap-to-produce energy products available, a growing supply of these energy products can be used to increasingly leverage human labor, through the use of more and better “tools” for the workers. When workers become increasingly more productive, their wages naturally rise. It is this growing productivity of human labor that generally produces the rising demand needed to maintain the economic growth cycle.
As growth in energy consumption slows and then declines (Figure 3), this productivity growth tends to disappear. This seems to be part of today’s problem.
[2] Increasing the amount of debt outstanding can work to make the energy extraction system work more effectively, by raising the price that consumers can afford to pay for high-priced goods.
This increasing ability to pay for high-priced goods seems to come in two ways:
(a) The debt itself can be used to pay for goods, making these goods more affordable on a month-to-month or year-to-year basis.
(b) Increased debt can lead to increased wages for wage earners, because some of the increased debt ultimately goes to create new jobs and to pay workers. Figure 12 shows the positive association that increasing debt seems to have with inflation-adjusted wages in the United States.
Figure 12. Growth in US Wages vs. Growth in Non-Financial Debt. Wages from US Bureau of Economics “Wages and Salaries.” Non-Financial Debt is discontinued series from St. Louis Federal Reserve. (Note chart does not show a value for 2016.) Both sets of numbers have been adjusted for growth in US population and for growth in CPI Urban.
Debt is, in effect, the promise of future goods and services made with energy products. These promises are often helpful in allowing an economy to expand. For example, businesses can issue bonds to provide funds to expand their operations. Selling shares of stock acts in a manner similar to adding debt, with repayment coming from future operations. In both cases, the payback can occur, if energy consumption is in fact growing, allowing the output of the business to expand as planned.
Once world leaders decide that debt levels are too high, or need to be controlled better, we are likely headed for trouble, because debt can be very helpful in “pulling the economy forward.” This is especially the case if productivity growth is low because per capita energy consumption is falling.
[3] Rebalancing of currency relativities to the US dollar.
Rebalancing currencies to different levels relative to the dollar seems to play a major role in determining the “inflation rate” calculated in Figure 10. Currency rebalancing also plays a major role in determining the shape of the GDP graph in current US$, as shown in Figure 1. In general, the higher the average relativity of other currencies to the US$, the higher the demand for goods and services of all kinds, and thus the higher the demand for energy products.
One problem in recent years is that, in some sense, the average relativity of other currencies to the US dollar has fallen too low. The fall in relativities took place when the US discontinued its use of Quantitative Easing in late 2014.
Figure 13. Monthly Brent oil prices with dates of US beginning and ending QE.
The price of oil and of other energy products dropped steeply at that time. In fact, in inflation-adjusted terms, oil prices had been falling even prior to the end of QE. (See Figure 2, above.) The shift in the currency relativities made oil and other energy products more expensive for citizens of the European Union, Japan, and most of the commodity producing countries shown in Figures 4 and 5.
The ultimate problem underlying this fall in average relativities to the US dollar is that there is now a disparity between the prices that consumers around the world can afford to pay for energy products, and the prices that businesses producing energy products really need. I have written about this problem in the past, for example in Why Energy-Economy Models Produce Overly Optimistic Indications.
At this point, none of the three approaches for solving the world’s deflation problem seem to be working:
[1] Increasing the supply of oil and other energy products is not working well, because diminishing returns has led to a situation where if prices are high enough for producers, they are too high for consumers to afford the finished goods made with the energy products.
[2] World leaders have decided that we have too much debt and, indeed, debt levels are very high. In fact, if energy prices continue to be low, a significant amount of debt currently outstanding will probably be defaulted on.
[3] Countries generally don’t want to raise the exchange rates of their currencies to the dollar, because lower exchange rates tend to encourage exports. If the United States raises its interest rates, either directly or by selling its QE bonds, the level of the US dollar can be expected to rise relative to other currencies. Thus, other currencies are likely to fall even lower than they are today, relative to the US dollar. This will tend to make the problem with low oil prices (and other energy prices) even worse than today.
Thus, there seems to be no way out of our current predicament.
Conclusion
The world economy is in a very precarious situation. Many of the world’s economies have found that, measured in current US$, the goods and services they are producing are less valuable than they were in 2013 and 2014. In particular, all of the oil exporting nations have this problem. Many other countries that are producing commodities have the same problem.
Governments around the world do not seem to understand the situation we are facing. In large part, this is happening because economists have built models based on their view of how the world works. Their models tend to leave out the important role energy plays. GDP growth and inflation estimates based on PPP calculations give a misleading view of how the economy is actually operating.
We seem to be sleepwalking into an even worse version of the Depression of the 1930s. Even if economists were able to figure out what is happening, it is not clear that there would be a good way out. Higher energy prices would aid energy producers, but would push energy importing nations into recession. We seem to be facing a predicament with no solution.
Appendix
Growing Inflation-Adjusted GDP Comes From Growing Energy Consumption
We often hear that GDP no longer depends on energy consumption, but this simply is not true. Energy consumption is needed for practically every industrial process, because energy causes the physical transformations that are need (including heat, light, and movement). Even services that only require a lighted, air-conditioned office and the use of computers require energy consumption of some type.
An industrialized country can outsource manufacturing of many of its goods to other countries, but the need for energy products goes with this outsourcing. The transfer of manufacturing to lesser developed countries tends to stimulate building in these countries. As a result, on a world basis, the amount of energy consumed tends to remain close to unchanged.
Using data for 1965 through 2016, we find the following relationship between inflation-adjusted world GDP and world energy consumption:
Figure A1. World growth in energy consumption vs. world GDP growth. Energy consumption from BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2017. World GDP is GDP in US 2010$, as compiled by World Bank.
Another way of displaying the same data is as an X, Y graph. A very high long-term correlation can be observed on this basis.
Figure A2. X-Y graph of world energy consumption (from BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2017) versus world GDP in 2010 US$, from World Bank.
This high level of correlation can be seen for other groupings as well. For example, for the grouping Middle East and North Africa, there is a high level of correlation between energy consumption and GDP.
Figure A3. X-Y graph showing correlation between energy consumption and GDP in the Middle East and North Africa.
If a person calculates the implications of this fitted line, energy consumption for these oil-producing countries is actually growing faster than inflation-adjusted GDP for these countries. This type of trend is to be expected if oil-producing countries are in some sense becoming less efficient in producing oil. This could happen for a number of reasons. One is that the easiest to extract oil is extracted first, leaving the more expensive to extract oil to be extracted later. Another possible reason for this trend is rising human populations in oil producing countries. These people drive cars and live in air conditioned buildings, driving up energy consumption for these countries. Whatever the cause, this loss of efficiency in oil production can be expected to at least partially offset growing efficiencies elsewhere in the system.
The Stoics appeared to have used similar contemplation themes, too.
The point at which so-called ‘East’ touches so-called ‘West.’
I prefer to call it ‘Contemplation of Transformation’, rather than of death as such.
The above referred to Tim’s earlier post on meditation!!!
I like it, Xabier. The word transformation has a more positive, almost energetic connotation.
That’s the intention, grayfox!
‘1900 was a long time ago’
Yes thank you for pointing that out. As any 7 year old with have a brain would understand that this was the point I was making.
Massive hurricanes happened before all this fuss about the current ones being caused by wooble gooby.
Definition of “Largest Hurricane”
Wind speed, cost, deaths, intensity, and width are some of the ways to define the largest hurricane. If using wind speed, intensity, or width as the definition, it is necessary to explain whether the measurement was recorded at landfall or was the highest measurement recorded in the hurricane’s life cycle.
Five Deadliest Hurricanes in U.S. History
Hurricane Year
Great Galveston Hurricane 1900
Okeechobee Hurricane 1928
Hurricane Katrina 2005
Louisiana Hurricane 1893
S. Carolina / Georgia 1893
Data from NOAA.
Do you need me to explain this as if I were speaking to a profoundly met ally re tar dddded person (which I clearly am)…
Just let me know which bit of the logic is confusing you and your room temperature IQ.
I am standing by.
Moreover, when talking about “deadliest” hurricanes, we shouldn’t neglect the fact that there are more people living along the US East Coast and Gulf Coast these days than at any time in the history of the Universe bar none.
In the case of Houston, Texas, for instance, there are 50 times as many residents today as there were in 1900.
1900 ….. 45,000
1910 ….. 79,000
1920 ….. 138,000
1930 ….. 292,000
1940 ….. 385,000
1950 ….. 596,000
1960 ….. 938,000
1970 ….. 1,234,000
1980 ….. 1,595,000
1990 ….. 1,630,000
2000 ….. 1,978,000
2010 ….. 2,016,000
2016 ….. 2,303,000
not only that
but Houston was built on cheap oil over the last 100 years
the expectation is that Houston and all the other disaster-hit towns will be rebuilt using expensive oil. In time, the government will run out of the necessary funds to rebuild. (money is energy after all)
After that, whatever nature knocks down will stay down.
Nature’s energy really is infinite.
Ours isn’t
The major takeaway from Houston situation was that clip of police/rescue chopper pilots wardrobe – giant helmet with gadgets and tiny shorts, who knew, humidity – temperature – floods, how practical..
Going to have to decide what to defend as waters rise.
Miami- not a chance.
SF- yep
NYC -yep, for a while
Houston– we shall see
“Nature’s energy really is infinite.
Ours isn’t”
Good way of putting it. I am afraid that this is one of the things that won’t get funded in legislation that needs to be passed in September.
Absolutely – since energy can’t really be stored, 100% of our present energy stream is committed…and the future is overcommitted into a model that assumes infinite BAU growth.
Peak Houston was in 2017?
BAU has ended prematurely for a considerable number of Huston residents, just as it did for many people in New Orleans in 2005.
Funny …. the MSM goes with the simple meme – the earth is boiling – these incidents are going to get worse… no mention of the points you and Gail have made…
The Big Lie — glooooally wooooorming…
not boiling. Just 86 deg F in the gulf. Boiling is 212 F.
I’m not feeling that… the weather is very cool here in Bali….
There was a lot of snow in Queenstown this year as well…
I remember looking at one in insurance rate filing for hurricane costs that seemed to look as if costs were going down over time, rather than up. The really bad hurricanes were in the past. We haven’t had a major hurricane hit the US since 2005.
One of the things that has made things worse in recent years is the tendency of builders to build right in the flood plain, in areas that should remain unbuilt so that they can absorb excess water flow. The Federal Government for many years has practically given away flood insurance, to those who want to buy coverage to build in areas where no sensible person would build, it they had looked at past hurricane history. Needless to say, no private insurer has wanted to compete with this nonsense. But if the economy is wealthy (large energy surplus), we can afford to keep rebuilding on flood plains, at least for a while.
We are getting to the point where we cannot afford to keep rebuilding, however. We will have to see what funding congress can agree on in September.
I think we will borrow until the payments cannot be made – if something else doesn’t happen first (such as lenders realizing that this is what is going to happen).
In New Orleans, not everything was rebuilt. Grass patches here and there.
“Yes thank you for pointing that out. As any 7 year old with have a brain would understand that this was the point I was making.”
Wrong, cucksocker, when you gave only a solitary fact. Incidentally, gonad, your stuff would be a lot better without the in~sults.
However, I am genuinely trying to get to the bottom of this. Your above point is a good one, as is the below one by the Groves lassie.
Next, what is your take on who is pushing the gee-dubya issue ? Is it the MSM – or not? Cui bono? Why is it being done, and who by? And who are the main forces against gee-dubya?
news flash north korea has shot a missile over japan looks like world war 3 is coming and just in time to save bau from imploding the powers that be have saved us again
no, not WW3.
in this increasingly high tech world, a ground war seems more unnecessary and less likely.
I’m sure there are many covert ways to attack NK and/or the “crazy fat kid” who leads their insane country.
we shall see how the don will respond
Yes, as I explained recently, the destruction potential of conventional warfare increased ~50x from WW2 era, might vary a bit depending what specifically branch you are focusing on, e.g. single vehicle multi rocket launcher can completely destroy ~200acres, modern artillery was tasked with near nuclear strike impact capability ~40yrs ago, and they more or less delivered already.. The same for carpet bombing, or tanks sniping precisely at 12kms distance nowadays etc.. It’s just insane today, fewer hardware (and people) numbers necessary, but higher impact. It’s obviously effect of climbing on the tech complexity tree. You needed many dozens of thousands of airplanes or tanks back in WWII, now it maxes out in hundreds or few thousands copies for each of the biggest countries with global reach.
However, we can’t completely deny that on day the contemporary practice of the big boyz testing their hardware in conflicts like Syria/Iraq against much weaker opponents and proxy conflicts, would eventually move on the outskirts or centers of the primary countries as well. But most likely this would occur in steps anyway, wait for precursors first like Poland and Hungary sending tanks against future much larger migrant waves for the first time in Europe ~2025.
It won’t matter what the price of oil ever goes to. Because 90% of our total supplies come from conventional oil supplies. That have permanently peaked and are now declining between 3-7% a year. And for everyone 1% decline of conventional oil supplies shale as an example would have to ramp up 20% every single year to cover the difference. What i am saying is that the oil shortages that are coming are going to be permanent. And 7.5 billion people are sleepwalking into a great Malthusian Nightmare (Trap)…
https://media.tenor.co/images/dfa88bb4f7316d34e09165830f86a8e2/tenor.gif
I can’t see any holes in your logic there. We can run from Malthus but we can’t hide, and in the end he’s bound to get us.
In terms of “Foreign Office Strategy”, my guess is that we are are at Stage 3 now and moving gradually perceptibly towards Stage 4.
https://youtu.be/HSD1d-6P6qI
absolutely agree with you on our oil supply predicament but the powers that be are always looking for more efficiencies in our system and that is why the global currency reset may be tried in the belief that world gdp growth can reverse course to keep bau going the powers that be are either getting desperate or foolishly believe that the global currency reset will save bau permanently as they believe in an infinite supply of energy
I saw that cover of the economist from the 1980’s that talked about a world currency starting in the year 2018. I read the article but wasn’t totally convinced it wasn’t just some writers wild idea. But it is strange they picked the year 2018 all the way in the future. I guess we will have to wait and see..I doubt it though.
i think i got obsessed with that story and reached a wild conclusion that there is a massive conspiracy going on
okay.
TPTB may be making a big mistake IF they do the reset.
I still “feel” that this “reset” idea comes from ConspiracyTheoryLand.
TPTB are still sitting pretty, and why risk their places of luxury?
IF there is another 2008/2009 event or worse, then extreme measures are more likely.
The art of government is, and has always been, one desperate and temporary expedient after another.
Fingers crossed that the balancing act can continue……
This is how investment in Lithium is being sold …if I understand the articles correctly;
‘They believe unlocking this crystal fuel’s potential is akin to discovering “The Holy Grail.” ‘
‘The innovations and applications are mindboggling.
Self-landing space rockets
Self-driving delivery trucks
Formula one race cars
Smart energy grids
Drones ‘
https://pro.moneymappress.com/p/EADLTM2MMR/LEADT816/Full?iris=727995&sid=war%2cETF+Daily+News&h=true
But this is how other commentators see the scam:
‘Another day, another crazy hyped-up pitch from Dr. Kent Moors — this time, he’s advertising his “entry level” Energy Advantage newsletter with a promise that he has found a way to profit from a “breakthrough superfuel.” ‘
‘And he refers throughout to this “OBL” fuel, which is a term he made up to make it sound like it’s a mysterious thing that you couldn’t possibly understand without his assistance… that’s somehow an acronym for “Oro Blanco”, a reference to the white crystal structure of this “fuel”.
Which means, if you’ve been paying attention to natural resources investing at all over the past few years, that you probably already know the basics of what he’s talking about — this is another pitch for a lithium stock, though he persists in using that “OBL” term throughout.’
https://www.stockgumshoe.com/reviews/energy-advantage/sniffing-out-kent-moors-obl-superfuel-whats-the-white-gold-1693x-more-powerful-than-gasoline/
And heres a comment from this review;
‘Not an expert, but why are battery components being touted as a “superfuel” anyway? They take scads of energy to mine and refine, and the energy to charge them has to come from somewhere else too. “SuperEnergyStorage” just seems more accurate.
Hydrocarbon fuels usage is widespread because they are already stored energy, and you just have to light the fire. You can pack them with you, in liquid form, without conversion to electricity first. We harness a lot more energy, long-term, from solar through hydroelectric projects (the Water Cycle is solar-powered, after all) than we likely ever will with panels.
I’m sure I’m missing a lot here, but I’m not seeing why electric cars are inevitable, or even driverless cars for that matter. I’m seeing technology and ‘green’ companies as a ‘tail’ trying to wag the marketing ‘dog’ from my perspective. If there’s no net energy benefit none of this is going to happen, or at least not for very long.
Enlightenment is greatly welcomed. Energy storage and transportation advances are extremely important to all of us in the modern world, but batteries still aren’t fuel. The ‘juice’ still has to come from somewhere else. Someone, please clue me in?’
Jerry
“I’m sure I’m missing a lot here, but I’m not seeing why electric cars are inevitable, or even driverless cars for that matter.”
Autonomous vehicles are inevitable because they will: 1) reduce traffic accidents and deaths by more than 90%; 2) enable much higher traffic densities and reduced transit times, 3) free up billions of hours of time for more productive activities every year in the U.S., etc.
Electrical vehicles are inevitable because they will have lower operating costs than gasoline vehicles, and electric vehicles can be used for electrical grid storage. Capital costs should eventually be lower, too. (But lower capital cost versus internal combustion engine cars is probably about a decade into the future.)
an EV is a hydrocarbon derived vehicle with a battery in it
a mobile phone is exactly the same
A house with a Tesla battery in it is also the same thing
We are not going to get battery powered planes and trucks
So can anybody enlighten me about this battery powered infrastructure that’s going to save us all?
Even if EV’s increased immensely this would destabilize the oil industry. The fraction of a barrel of oil into diesel vs gas is not as flexible as the lay audience acts. Less gasoline usage would impact diesel and jet fuel production. I would think this would increase the capex investment problem and long term shortfalls, impacting aviation and trucking.
had to shoot down an idiot elsewhere who tried to assure me the oil industry could just go on producing tar for roads and stuff, after the need for motor fuel was no longer there
but that belief is common
Then will follow flying cars, trips to moon and world peace.
Koombaya…. dawg….
Autonomous vehicles aren’t anywhere close either. The WSJ had an article recently, talking about the staff members who had quit after Elon Musk had announced that Tesla had the capability to make autonomous vehicles, when it really didn’t.
Autonomous vehicles…. For those of us who live and work in the field of machine learning, this problem looks AI complete from every angle. One question is: Would you turn the responsibility for your life, and maybe your kids, over to a machine that’s 99% accurate? (And they surely aren’t there yet).
There is another problem. A significant fraction of the industry makes a product that appeals to people who actually likes to drive. Think BMW.
still missing the point
journeys require purpose
post fossil fuel there will be no purpose, hence no journeys
sorry
You are exhibiting extremely delusional thinking
I’m just saying EV’s aren’t going to happen, and listed two reasons.
Funny, but I have not seen a single rescue vehicle in Houston that was electric.
LOL!
You are living with extreme Delusion. What does it feel like?
Didn’t they call this dilithium crystals in Star Trek? Scotty to the rescue.
But silly Davidinatrillionyrs persists in proclaiming that peak oil will be in 2027. By then the output of major oils field will be down by 60% from current levels. We will be in shitcreek, deepkimche, between a rock and a hard place, shtf, long before that.
Dennis Coyne at peakoilbarreldotcom has done the math using all available world oil data.
his latest “projection” is peak oil between 2017 and 2030.
not a prediction, just an estimated range.
if you think your math is better, please let us all know.
thanks.
but he did recently change his outlook to begin with 2017, not 2020.
so it could be, like, real soon.
so you actually may be right.
I hope not.
David, read the HSBC report on the rates of decline of oil fields. The problem is, the percentage decline I gave is based upon the present average rate of decline of the major oil fields, which is presently 6.5%. That means 50% less oil from the majors in 2027 than today. However, the decline rate of major oil fields continually increases every year, once the major field starts declining, therefore, 50% less oil from the majors in 2027 is optimistic.It will be far less oil, or a greater percentage than 50% less oil. There apparently is only a small group of people aware of the depth of this calamity.
Anybody out there got any replacements for >50% of our oil?
How about EU goes to 0, and US continues wasting it. Sharing this resource fairly has never been one of our strong points…
Peakoilbarrel are very optimistic in their calculations. I find this surprising sometimes given that they were at the TOD in the early days.
The Powers That Be always have a Plan B!
https://youtu.be/vu8HR3nkb5A
I saw him play the Wall in Chicago back in 2010. Best show I had ever seen!
the global currency reset that may be being planned will ultimately seal our fate on whether bau continues or implodes, i’m betting that it will implode sometime in the 2020’s
that could be.
by 2029 or so, sure.
but why would TPTB do a reset that implodes BAU?
the Elites have their luxuries because of BAU.
without BAU for the 99%, the 1% will lose the worker bees that support their hives.
Attempted tweaking and near gov crash level programs first, e.g. NAmerica will be forced to lower transportation fuel usage by various methods, forced car sharing/buses-HOVs/Asian style personal scooters – they now work even in snow and ice with ABS and mud+snow tires..
Simply, combination of methods how to push the per capita/mile “wastage” down. This might cut the consumption by a lot for kicking the can another ~5-10-15yrs.. depending on other factors like wars, natgas situation globally etc.
FE is right on Wolf Reicter he is a shill. He is completely sucked in to Elons web. Too bad he has other valuable insights.
Wolf Richter has a pretty good article up on what Hurricane Harvey will do to the problem of low auto sales. (I didn’t mention any of Teslas either.)
https://wolfstreet.com/2017/08/29/what-will-harvey-do-to-carmageddon/
This is the US subprime fiasco on steroids, coke, meth, speed, and crack…. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-28/stevenson-yang-warns-china-about-hit-wall
So far this year has been crazy, particularly in the area around Beijing. Just a few weeks ago I was in this little rustbelt city called Zhuozhou in the Hebei province where the steel mills are. It’s a very unpleasant place to spend time. It’s very polluted, there’s nothing to do, the food is bad and the landscape is awful. It’s just no place you want to be and yet property prices have doubled, tripled and in some places even quadrupled in a year.
What’s fueling this boom?
It’s like in every property bubble: People build these stories. In Florida for example, the idea in the housing bubble was that all Americans are going to retire there. Florida has nice beaches, it’s warm and Americans are getting older, so everybody’s going to retire there. In China, the idea is that all these areas 200 miles outside of Beijing are going to be bedrooms for the working class of Beijing.
So they’re going to build subways, schools, hospitals and other public facilities there and the prices are going to go up. The story goes that all these people who can’t afford to live in Beijing but work there are going to live in places like Zhuozhou instead and that they are going to take the high speed rail into Beijing. Everybody is speculating like mad but in the end nobody wants to live there.
And how are such ghost towns financed?
There is probably no company that is more representative of the investment bubble than Evergrande. It’s the biggest pyramid scheme the world has yet seen. Evergrande is highly leveraged and has like 270 projects all over the country. I have been easily to 40 of them yet I have only seen one that was fully occupied.
Many of these projects are megalomaniac visions and totally empty.
Yet you go to these places and you see their sales room filled with young buyers. When I open my eyes I see crumbling stone and empty jungles or deserts. What they see is a future with wealthy Europeanized people strolling on modern paths. It’s just amazing. It’s a mass illusion and Evergrande more than any of these developers plays to this illusion by building developments that are specifically positioned for the investor, not to live there but to buy for some future appreciation in price.
China’s exports as a percentage of GDP are way down. China needs to have workers with jobs doing something.
The trading landscape is littered with CFR types suggesting to short China. They’re probably talking their book, old money loves the arbitrage.
Chinese large caps +39% ytd
CNY/USD +10% ytd
China current account + $300B
Chinese govt. debt 41% of GDP ($ 4.1T).
Zero chance I’d step in front of that freight train.
Not only that but their quality control is garbage
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-28/looting-begins-houston-distracted-police-rescue-over-2000-floodwaters
BAU ends – power goes out — the looters hit the shops taking their hauls home — then to their surprise — the power won’t go back on – ever.
Joy turns to confusion turns to panic….
Interesting problem; all that newly ‘acquired’ tech sitting in the corner and no power to use and enjoy it!
…but.. but I’ve got an App!!
that’s it!
Eureka!
what we need is a collAPPse!
an app for The Collapse!
now I must get to work on a trademark for The CollAPPse.
National Geographic made a documentary about the grid going down called “American Blackout” Its on youtube.
This seems to be a link to the movie. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYoXxVnTePA
But will their sneakers still light up?
Otherwise, so terribly sad to put in a hard days work thieving – it’s their regular job after all, a vocation, just like mum and dad -and have nothing to show for it!
Reflecting on the end of Civilisation, I have started to picture to myself a decomposing corpse – with glowing footwear. 🙂
Maraṇasati (mindfulness of death, death awareness) is a Buddhist meditation practice that uses various visualization and contemplation techniques to meditate on the nature of death. The cultivation of Maranassati is said to be conducive to right effort and also helps in developing a sense of spiritual urgency (Saṃvega) and renunciation (Nekkhamma)
Lol, come on Xabier, don’t you know they only light up when you take steps? We’ll have to kick you in your dead feet for entertainment. 😉
I’m sure the looting started days ago, emptying the pharmacies first I’m sure.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VCWZaf_FT80
snorp
btw, here is a link to that dam situation
https://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDetail/Index/2110
I saw a report of pipelines being in danger, but nothing specific.
If alt righters want a race war. Then take your torches and go marching into downtown Detroit or Chicago. Prove yourself! LOL
in Chicago, like most major US cities, black murders are committed by other blacks more than 90% of the time.
in major US cities, most murderers are young black men.
is that what you mean by “race war”?
Unwrap and use.
No training necessary.
Brown Shirts would get their a s kicked in a serious way.
Brownshirts vs Snowflakes….
Isn’t that a bit like putting me into the ring with Mike Tyson?
https://i0.wp.com/daisyluther.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/wellsley-reaction.jpg
Just the same in the worst parts of London these days.
Alt-righter don’t want a race war. The left wing antifa funded by Soros and Obama want to instigate a race war, and are working hard to start it.
Still pretty optimistic: “My money’s still on being clubbed to death in the resource wars of 2036.” Nick Goodall NUMBER RANDOMIZER http://www.theonion.com/americanvoices/study-world-could-run-entirely-renewable-energy-20-56786
What are we going to do with all the dead bodies?
I presume this comment relates to the previous discussion about this article. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-23/prepping-lives-rich-famous-far-away-all-issues-world
Total CEO Patrick Pouyanné warns we are going to have oil shortages around 2020 due to lack of investment
http://www.boursorama.com/actualites/je-suis-convaincu-qu-on-va-manquer-de-petrole-selon-le-pdg-de-total-patrick-pouyanne-9b2d911a65572f5f989a74319b68d296
then higher oil prices because of the shortages…
then higher investment because of those higher prices…
then higher supplies and less shortages…
this is why peak oil perhaps maybe will not happen until 2025 or so.
this is all theoretical and may not happen… in a few years, we shall see.
It won’t matter what the price ever goes to. Because 90% of our total supplies come from conventional oil supplies. That have permanently peaked and are now declining between 3-7% a year. And for everyone 1% decline in conventional oil supplies shale as an example would have to ramp up 20% every single year to cover the difference.
Chevron CEO warns US shale oil alone cannot meet the world’s growing demand for crude
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/01/us-shale-cannot-meet-the-worlds-growing-oil-demand-chevron-ceo-warns.html
Someone did us the courtesy of translating Pouyanne’s interview. From a comment by VR on the Un-Denial blog;
“Meanwhile, an interview with Patrick Pouyanné, CEO of Total (June 20, 2017)
Journalist: So, the optimal oil price of for everyone, producers and consumers, is, what, $50-60?
PP: There is no optimal price for the simple reason that price is always a matter of supply and demand. (…) Because of population growth, demand for oil is growing and hence the need for increased investment. As production is brought online, the price will eventually go down, and investment will tail off which after time makes the price go up again. (…) I am convinced that due to the lack of investment in recent years, in three years from now there will be a shortage of oil.
Journalist: So you are saying that because of under-investment there will be an oil shock in 2020?
PP: Yes. (…) What people fail to understand is that there is such a thing as natural depletion, it’s about 3% per year, that amounts to approx. 3 mbd. Adding 1% growth in demand, that is 20 mbd in 5 years. That means we need to invest in the replacement of as much as the equivalent of two Saudi Arabia’s in that timeframe. (…) The reason I foresee an oil shortage is the time lag between initial investment and actual production. It takes 4-5 years to see the result of increased investment, or of a lack of investment for that matter. That is why in our sector we see these so-called “cycles”.
In other words, it is all about supply and demand and cycles…”
PP: Yes. (…) What people fail to understand is that there is such a thing as natural depletion, it’s about 3% per year, that amounts to approx. 3 mbd. Adding 1% growth in demand, that is 20 mbd in 5 years.
http://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/icbkDFACM4iA/v2/800x-1.png
Peak oil was always destined to end in a glut — with collapse soon to follow.
I expect the Eeeelders will be able to hold the financial system together longer than the oil supply situation holds together… oil supply falters — prices blast off for a very short time — then the house of cards comes down????
Live each day as if it were your last
Just think of what an alarming statement. we have to find and bring online two new saudi arabia’s ever five years for the rest of our lives. we won’t be able to bring on one let alone two, let alone two every five freaking years in a row for the next 50 years.
The geopolitical feedback loop I think we need to think about is whether Saudi Arabia and other important producer/exporters will decide at some point to stop exporting and keep the oil at home for domestic consumption when faced with exponentially depleting production and domestic unrest. And if one country decides to do that, will others fall in line, creating the mother of all oil crises?
if a country like SA does that, they will ruin their economy with the loss of all their export revenues.
this relates to the Export Land Model created by J. Brown.
many countries are no longer exporters, not because they wanted to change, but because their production dropped too low to continue exporting.
Only one problem. They need Dollars to trade with and oil is the only way they get Dollars to play with on the international playing field. The petrodollar was the most glorious and devious scheme ever devised: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-31/secret-story-how-saudi-petrodollar-deal-was-born
PEAK ENERGY, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND THE COLLAPSE OF GLOBAL CIVILIZATION
http://content.csbs.utah.edu/~mli/Economics%207004/Morrigan_2010_Energy_CC4.pdf
People are starting to panic:
“As Harvey continues dumping rain on East Texas and the waters there continue to rise, people are starting to panic, rushing rescue boats and even shooting at them if they don’t stop, said one volunteer rescuer.”
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIWGb3zUwAAyZCM.jpg
“rushing rescue boats and even shooting at them if they don’t stop, said one volunteer rescuer.”
Attention Doomie Preppers…. your little piece of paradise is going to attract desperate people like shi t attracts flies…
And guess what — they won’t be asking you to share food — or if you mind if they ‘breed your women’
You may have read that water is being let out of two swollen reservoirs by the Army Corps of Engineers. In fact, water is now going over the top of one. This adds to the problems.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2017/08/28/houston-releases-water-from-two-dams-in-attempt-to-prevent-uncontrolled-overflow/?utm_term=.84817485e1e6
//www.washingtonpost.com/video/c/embed/6a1bc0ac-8cd3-11e7-9c53-6a169beb0953
Stock Market will Crash when Investors realize Peak Oil is Real
http://energyskeptic.com/2012/stock-market-will-crash-when-investors-realize-peak-oil-is-real/
could be.
when peak oil hits in the 2017-2030 range (newest data analysis) then…
there would likely have to be a few years for its confirmation.
then, who knows?
meanwhile, October ’17 looms like a dark cloud on the horizon.
The CEO of Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, was recently (July, 2017) quoted at the World Petroleum Congress in Istanbul as saying that the world is heading towards an oil supply shortage before too long as a result of falling discoveries of new conventional oil reserves and steep drops in new investment. At that same conference, Mark Richard, who is the senior vice president for global business development at Halliburton, said that the industry’s slashing of about $2 trillion in investments will weigh heavily on the market in a few years when oil supplies fail to keep up with demand and will lead to massive oil price shocks when the market catches up – according to him, somewhere around 2020-2021.”
2021… it would be nice to get another 3+ years out of this old heap
That would be turkey, turkey, turkey.
“… massive oil price shocks when the market catches up – according to him, somewhere around 2020-2021.”
yes, that is possible.
then after 2020-2021, higher investments and higher supplies are possible.
that’s why peak oil is possible as late as 2030.
but that’s only a possibility.
2023 plus or minus 7 years is the probable range based on world oil data.
most of us will live to see peak oil.
cool.
It won’t matter what the price ever goes up to. Because 90% of our total supplies come from conventional oil supplies. That have permanently peaked and are now declining between 3-7% a year. And for everyone 1% decline in conventional oil supplies shale as an example would have to ramp up 20% every single year to cover the difference.
Chevron CEO warns US shale oil alone cannot meet the world’s growing demand for crude
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/01/us-shale-cannot-meet-the-worlds-growing-oil-demand-chevron-ceo-warns.html
Conventional Oil Peaked in 2006 –IEA-NATURE
http://imgur.com/a/uCz7V
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/has-peak-oil-already-happened/
Saudi Aramco CEO believes world oil shortage coming despite U.S. shale boom
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017/07/10/saudi-aramco-ceo-believes-oil-shortage-coming-despite-u-s-shale-boom.html
HSBC Global Bank warns 80% of the worlds conventional fields are declining and world oil shortages by 2020
https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/24/vzchQwb
I sort of agree. The thing that the IEA has been counting on is that oil prices would permanently rise to $300 per barrel. If that could actually happen, then there would be a lot of unconventional oil that would suddenly become economic. We wouldn’t need to discover more, because we already know about a huge amount of unconventional that could be produced, at a high enough price.
I suppose the question is “How high is high, and for how long?” If we are talking spikes to $80 per barrel, this will do nothing to produce unconventional oil. You are right; we are pretty much tied to conventional oil for production. If we really could produce oil at $300 per barrel, and make the economy operate on such oil, we would have no problem producing enough unconventional oil.
Your looking at the wrong data. It will come much sooner.
A Nation of Broke People Are Killing Retail More Than Amazon: Top Expert
https://www.thestreet.com/story/14277483/1/a-nation-of-broke-people-are-killing-retail-more-than-amazon-peter-schiff-says.html
Amazing how something so obvious seems to be ignored. It’s rare to see it acknowledged, that lousy wages and huge debts crimp spending power. There’s no economy without spending.
I agree, people like to use the Amazon excuse for “retail armeggedon” when the real problem is people are just plain broke. Selling material consumption can take an eCONomy only so far before it begins to implode. Every waking second/minute of every day somebody is trying to sell you something wether you think you need it or not. Then add to the mix that most of those purchases are on credit and those making those are only making enough to just get by from paycheck to paycheck. It never ends well.
You know it’s bad when retailers start their Black Friday deals in June and July.
++++
It is not as if people just discovered Amazon …
The biggest issue is wages are flat — and people are maxxed out on their credit cards
“financialization is nothing more than money with its value removed.”
(Graham Reinders.)
I like that quote!
So the Don begins the domestic arms race. It was inevitable, this link confirms it
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-police-tanks_us_59a4052ee4b0821444c4869c?ncid=inblnkushpmg00000009
If the coming civil disorder is obvious to doomsters on OFW, it has be obvious in the WH. They know perfectly well that post oil means social collapse.
Come shtf time, things are going to get very nasty indeed—the above piece bears out what I’ve been saying all along, there will be military intervention against a disorderly civil population
A dictator needs a paramilitary force beholden to him alone, making sure they have the best armament guarantees that. For all the assurances about police impartiality, you can be certain that police/military will do what they always do, fall in behind whoever pays their wages when their own existence is threatened
that is the key factor.—they have jobs and want to keep them, no matter what that entails.
I wrote this back in May
https://medium.com/@End_of_More/the-usa-is-sleepwalking-to-totalitarianism-91fe09db6174
all it needs now, is some kind of attack on the homeland—it won’t take much—for martial law to be declared and the constitution to be suspended
(temporariliy of course)
This should go well with all those bullets homeland security purchased a few years ago.
yes that all went quiet i recall
That’s just what the people wanted when they voted for his vision for America, police with bayonets.
Yes your stating the obvious. But very soon an irresistible solution will emerge. That will be a game changer. But not for long.
Trump seems to be adopting the idea that the county sheriff is the highest authority in the land. Witness his approval for David Clarke (even shilling for his book!) and his approval of and pardon of Arpiao. Scary trend, indeed.
hadnt heard about the David Clarke thing, whats that about?
David Clarke is another “law and order” sheriff who basically violates civil rights daily. He wrote a book about his “rough, tough” approach and Trump tweeted that everyone should read the book.
Check out this new white nationalist propaganda video.
This video is very probably CIA/Soro agit-prop, manufacturing the sort of opposition real white nationalists would be ashamed to be seen dead with. But the pot of racial strife is being stirred vigorously by the MSM these days, and so the question remains, if and when push turns to shove in Michigan, Montana or Mississippi, is a poor dumbed-down white boy going to join “the Deplorables” or is he going to become “a Race Traitor”? At the end of the day, what other choices does he have?
A few weeks of rioting and overall bedlam on the streets — before the power goes out — will be very entertaining.
I am hoping to get my money’s worth in the run up to the total holocaust
Largest Church In Texas Closes Doors, Tells Members To Pray
http://faithfullymagazine.com/harvey-lakewood-church-cancels-harvey/
t is too late for prayer. A more timely mass sacrifice of unblemished lambs might have helped, but it is too late now.
Cabbages For Christ are so practical.
Hey Duncan, I participated in Cabbages For Christ as a child…or something like it.
Black Swans are circling all around the shale oil industry. And a calm surface is exactly what they love to land on. So keep your ears pricked for the sounds of wings flapping…
Olduvai theory is happened in Gaza strip
In Gaza, we get four hours of electricity a day — if we’re lucky
some friends threw me a surprise birthday party last month. They placed a chocolate cake lit with candles before me and told me to make a wish for the year ahead. I immediately blurted out, “24-hour electricity and air conditioning.” They laughed and suggested I wish for something more realistic.
Here in the Gaza Strip, 24-hour electricity has been a distant dream for well over a decade. Israel’s bombings of Gaza’s only power plant, its closing of the Gaza border and fallout from the split between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, which governs Gaza, have meant chronic power outages. Not long ago, we had adjusted to eight hours of electricity a day. Now even that seems a luxury.
Our power comes from three sources: Israel, Egypt and our single functional power plant, which runs on fuel. Even before the current crisis, only about half of Gaza’s electricity needs were being met. Then there was a dispute between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas over payment for the fuel, both refused to pay, and the plant shut down in April, reducing the already inadequate supply by about 25%.
http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-almasri-no-electricity-in-gaza-20170820-story.html
The situation in the Gaza strip is indeed very bad. Israel should be doing something very differently, but it is hard to see that change.
Hmm let me see. If I correlated migration with stable electric supply what do you think the percentage would be?
The coming collapse of the China’s Ponzi economy
http://www.scmp.com/news/article/2108442/my-prediction-coming-collapse-chinas-ponzi-scheme-economy
We sometimes forget what a “gift” the built-in pricing system of supply and demand is, in determining prices. It is based on affordability, which in turn is influenced by debt levels, wages levels. The growing consumption of cheap energy is what ultimately increases affordability.
The author thinks the administered pricing system is unsustainable, and will end in collapse. He probably is right.
We are trying something similar when we mandate the use of intermittent renewable energy that requires indirect subsidies from other energy providers. It too looks like a system headed for collapse.
Without insurance, some vendors balk at stocking Sears’ shelves
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-sears-vendors-insight-idUSKCN1B50E9?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+reuters/businessNews+(Business+News)
I can imagine this kind of thing happening at other retailers who seem to be near bankruptcy as well.
On Wolfs cite you’ll find the delusional masses believing that electric cars will become a reality.
How about a little fact checking.
Electric cars will never compete with gas. First of all a Tesla 85kwh battery weighs 1200lbs it has the same energy storage as two gallons of diesel that weigh 14.8lbs. The curb weight of a Tesla S is 4500 lbs the curb weight of a Chevy Impala is 2500lbs. Do the math. Where is the weight advantage of electric vehicles? To often all we find in forums on this subject is the propaganda that allows a ponzi like Musk to keep going.
Even a 400% improvement in battery technology will not make an electric car competitive with ICE cars. Something else to consider. With proper maintenance an Impala can last 250,000 miles. Tesla can’t possibly go that long without battery replacement.
On top of that the cost of production of electric vehicles will never be less then ICE vehicles for a very important reason. They weigh more!!! This means more materials are required in their construction hence more cost.
Facts trump Dreams. Unless your Elon.
Clunkers indeed….
Try posting this on wolfs site – he won’t allow me to…
Electric vehicles in Hong Kong could be adding “20 per cent more” carbon to the atmosphere than regular petrol ones over the same distance after factoring in the city’s coal-dominated energy mix and battery manufacture, a new research report found.
Investment research firm Bernstein also claimed that by subsidising electric vehicle purchases, the government was effectively “harming rather than helping the environment” at the expense of the taxpayer.
“The policy is to encourage drivers to be green, but they are actually subsidising vehicles that create more emissions of CO2 and particulates from power plants,” said Bernstein senior analyst Neil Beveridge.
http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/1935817/electric-shock-tesla-cars-hong-kong-more-polluting
He is fried. His head is stuck in the renewable hopium.
Very very deep in the matrix is Wolf. He will insult you if you challenge him with facts — then he will ban you from the site.
Good points. I thought this article was good. http://www.newsday.com/classifieds/cars/5-things-tesla-model-3-owners-need-to-know-1.14091907
The points it makes are
1. Supercharging is No Longer Free
2. You’ll Want Your Own Charger
3. EV Charging for Apartments and Condos is Difficult
4. Public Charging is a Nightmare – “. . .you can expect prices to range from free (a rarity) to more expensive than gasoline (far more likely than you would think). Beyond wildly varying prices that have no rhyme or reason, public networks don’t have standard charging speeds, many requiring 8-12 hours to fully charge a Tesla.”
5. Charge Up Every Night
I wonder what the resale value will be on electric plug-in vehicles, if people who live in apartments and condos can’t find a way to charge up at home.
Liquid fuels have been an amazing gift. Never to be repeated.
It’s never acknowledged that one of the great benefits of oil-wealth has been that poor people, widows, orphans, etc, have not been forced to prostitute themselves in order to survive – social welfare, economic expansion and higher wages have seen to that.
As wealth fades, so it will return.
The pretty farmer’s daughter thrown on the world and her luck by the death of parents was a common theme of European literature in the 17th-18th centuries.
Higher class prostitutes were certainly able to live much better than ‘honest’ girls who merely laboured for a pittance in shop or factory – healthier, better-housed, clothed and fed – a fact which moralists tried to cover up in the 19th century, trying to portray their fate as terrible.
Shop girls in 19th century London often had to supplement their poor wages in this way, by finding ‘friends’, regular or temporary.
to add a little humour to a grim picture, the Thomas Hardy poem might help:
“O ‘Melia, my dear, this does everything crown!
Who could have supposed I should meet you in Town?
And whence such fair garments, such prosperi-ty?” —
“O didn’t you know I’d been ruined?” said she.
— “You left us in tatters, without shoes or socks,
Tired of digging potatoes, and spudding up docks;
And now you’ve gay bracelets and bright feathers three!” —
“Yes: that’s how we dress when we’re ruined,” said she.
— “At home in the barton you said thee’ and thou,’
And thik oon,’ and theäs oon,’ and t’other’; but now
Your talking quite fits ‘ee for high compa-ny!” —
“Some polish is gained with one’s ruin,” said she.
— “Your hands were like paws then, your face blue and bleak
But now I’m bewitched by your delicate cheek,
And your little gloves fit as on any la-dy!” —
“We never do work when we’re ruined,” said she.
— “You used to call home-life a hag-ridden dream,
And you’d sigh, and you’d sock; but at present you seem
To know not of megrims or melancho-ly!” —
“True. One’s pretty lively when ruined,” said she.
— “I wish I had feathers, a fine sweeping gown,
And a delicate face, and could strut about Town!” —
“My dear — a raw country girl, such as you be,
Cannot quite expect that. You ain’t ruined,” said she.
I love Hardy: missed that one though.
I think you are probably right. Also, there were an awfully lot of widows back then. Many men died in accidents, or of diseases that would be treatable now. (Same for women, leaving men with children and no wife.)
I vaguely recall that, pre-antibiotics, the average length of a marriage before termination by the death of one spouse was 12 years.
Men against women.
In the villages of Thailand … the prettiest girls in school…. generally end up in whore houses…
I have heard that parents will flip their daughters for the price of a new tv….
Of course the vast majority of the girls are not sold into this life — rather they choose it.
Who can blame them — slave away in a rice field or live like a rock star making big dollars….
If I were female and in their shoes… I would be up on stage….
https://bangkokhangover.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/spanky.jpg
vs
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-mZ8JVvJy1cY/Tq33aPDcEFI/AAAAAAAAFYg/ZtBtVUHkBhE/s1600/IMG_8135.jpg
How can you know she’s not a he? It’s pretty amazing how they can do it there.
Adriana Velásquez gets ready for work, heading out into an uncertain darkness as she has done since hunger forced her into the only job she could find at 14.
She was introduced to her brothel madam by a friend more than two years ago after her mother, a single parent, was fired and the two ran out of food. “It was really hard, but we were going to bed without eating,” said the teenager, whose name has been changed to protect her.
Since then Venezuela’s crisis has deepened, the number of women working at the brothel has doubled, and their ages have dropped. “I was the youngest when I started. Now there are girls who are 12 or 13. Almost all of us are there because of the crisis, because of hunger.”
Nearly three-quarters of Venezuelans have lost weight over the past year, and the average loss was a huge 9kg, or nearly a stone and a half, according to a survey by the country’s top universities. For many that is simply because food is too expensive. Nine out of 10 homes can’t cover the cost of what they should eat.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/26/nicolas-maduro-donald-trump-venezuela-hunger
And this country has not even collapsed yet…..
Doesn’t matter too much what we may say about the goal economy flatlining…. there is a big bunch of people out there who recognise resource limits and elution limits but they argue black and blue that money is not tangible so we (the global community) won’t be significantly impacted by recession or depression. Adam Smith is still alive and well. So long as resources are there, even if lower in quality, it becomes profitable to extract them. This denial is not too different to climate change denial, except it’s much more entrenched.
Regarding “So long as resources are there, even if lower in quality, it becomes profitable to extract them,” I think that there is really a ratio of benefits to costs that is involved. The overall economic network must get enough benefit for the benefit to flow through to higher wages of non-elite workers, and the demand of these workers in turn to rise high enough to keep prices up.
There are other influences on demand as well, including debt. Repaying debt with interest requires that the economy be truly growing. This happens when the benefit to cost ratio is high enough for energy products. It is related to EROI, but is a little different. EROI does not pay attention to energy quality or timing, or the energy cost of human labor.
Goods are in some sense more important than services. If there is a shortage of energy, the services portion of the economy will necessarily be cut back. This makes it even harder to maintain the benefits to cost ratio.
Hunger eats away at Venezuela’s soul as its people struggle to survive
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/26/nicolas-maduro-donald-trump-venezuela-hunger
Pemex reported that in July its average crude oil production slipped below the psychological barrier of 2.0 million barrels per day, the lowest daily level registered since 1980. It’s a far cry from the glory days of the early 2000s when the company was pumping an average of 3.4 million barrels per day.
It’s not just Pemex’s crude production that’s falling. The total production of petroleum products in July was 834,000 barrels per day, 157,000 barrels per day less than in June. That’s a monthly drop of 19%. Compared to July 2016, Pemex produced 246,000 barrels per day less — a year-over-year drop of 29%.
How did things get this bad, this fast?
https://wolfstreet.com/2017/08/27/how-did-it-get-this-bad-for-mexico-oil-giant-pemex-corruption/
Shale in trouble — Saudi’s unable to swing production higher – tar sands kaput?
This is looking more like a financial collapse triggered by a decline in oil production … rather than a financial collapse triggered by a finance-related problem such a key country or industry sinking below the waves and defaulting…
well…
perhaps a financial collapse in Mexico.
perhaps a financial collapse in oil exporting countries.
oh, look, that sounds like Venezuela.
perhaps Saudi Arabia is next.
so far, there is a clear emerging pattern.
smaller weaker countries are wobbling and falling economically.
there is no uniform decline in the economies of all countries.
peripheral economies seem to be taking the first hits.
the G7 or G20 core countries seem more stable.
relatively speaking.
Last Winter I lived in Mexico. (Jalisco)
Things are functioning well enough.
Of course I lived in Colombia in the 70’s.
One just needs to be street smart (probably eliminated most of OFW).
Remove reserve currency status for Federal Reserve Notes and the United States is Venezuela cubed. Infrastructure and all.
The US’s Reserve Currency status has enable its huge balance of payment deficit since the 1970s. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/historical/gands.pdf
A big part of this relates to imported oil, and its cost. This is a chart of US net oil imports. They hit a maximum in 2005, and have been relatively flat in 2014, 2015, and 2016.
Many countries have current account deficits without Reserve Currency status.
Ours is worse and more persistent, though.
Right, so losing Reserve Currency status would be not good.
Scroll to the bottom, you’ll find us.
http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Economy/Current-account-balance
It’s not getting better.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_current_account_balance
Current account balances in Surplus are good for non monetary nations and MS nations undergoing boom times, like China. The Surplus keeps a lid on the economy
Current account balances in deficit are good for Monetary Sovereign nations, since spending by government boosts the economy and allows it to grow. A surplus on the other hand crimps the economy and often leads to recessions, nearly always in fact.
I have been looking at some data on this subject. From what I am seeing, what you are saying is untrue.
Examples of countries with current account balances in surplus include China in nearly all recent years, Japan while it was growing rapidly (but not recently), Germany all years since 2000, and Saudi Arabia until oil prices dropped. The United States is the major country with a chronic deficit situation.
Of course, Germany is not a monetary sovereign country.
You might have missed Mark Blyth’s explanation of why this is so. Europe and China are export oriented. So that means they need a market which imports. That is what the USA does.
Exactly. The US also needs a way to “recycle” its growing debt. Saudi Arabia, Japan, and China bought up US debt, at low interest rates, when they were in a position to do so. Now the ability to recycle is going away, at the same time the US is talking about selling its QE bonds. Coming from a Norwegian background, my comment is “Uff da!”
This is looking more like a financial collapse triggered by a decline in oil production … rather than a financial collapse triggered by a finance-related problem such a key country or industry sinking below the waves and defaulting…
Yup. That is what i have my money on…Just like the conclusion of that leaked German army peak oil study. They accurately predicted the rise of Trump and nationalism. And it said oil is used directly or indirectly in the production 90% of all industrial goods. So a shortage of oil would collapse the world economy and world government democracies. It also said there are certain psychological barriers that protect humans from accepting the reality of peak oil…And Dennis Meadows said in an interview a few years ago. He has talked directly to the head of the World bank about the limits to growth and peak oil. And he said the Director told him “Peak oil is not allowed to ever be talked about at the World Bank. Anyone who tries to bring it up will be instantly fired or demoted, It’s simply a taboo topic”..
So you want to decommission a nuclear power plant?
http://www.heraldpalladium.com/news/local/so-you-want-to-decommission-a-nuclear-power-plant/article_1f95d061-b7f7-5879-9e06-0fed86b42b86.html
One of the injured Brown Shirts that were scattering like cockroaches when the light is turned on:
http://ww3.hdnux.com/photos/65/24/05/13975926/3/core_breaking_now_medium.jpg
anyone with wisdom would “scatter” if they were approached by a mob of black-clothed violent “masked anarchists”.
in my opinion.
We in Berkeley and Oakland have been fighting in the street from the 60’s on.
Brown Shirts be warned.
in the 60’s, were you fighting against free speech?
are groups there now fighting against free speech?
No, we were fighting for free speech, against a repressive State.
I’m all for expression.
There’s a time when the operation of the machine becomes so odious, makes you so sick at heart, that you can’t take part! You can’t even passively take part! And you’ve got to put your bodies upon the gears and upon the wheels…upon the levers, upon all the apparatus, and you’ve got to make it stop! And you’ve got to indicate to the people who run it, to the people who own it, that unless you’re free, the machine will be prevented from working at all!
-Savio
It is a matter of strategy– Brown Shirts understand violence, and it was presented to them.
Don’t lock yourself up in ideology.
“No, we were fighting for free speech, against a repressive State. I’m all for expression.”
you “were”…
but NOW…
are these violent leftist mobs always “fighting for free speech”?
or NOW, are some of these violent leftist mobs actually fighting against free speech?
Only if you define the issue as free speech.
(Don’t lock your mind up)
If you are kicking some Fascist A z, that is the strategy.
One needs to expand you view.
Brown shirts, black shirts, blag flags, red flags, rainbow flags, masks – who let the little children into the dressing up box?
Duncan is allied with the antics fascists. He feels empowered by their violence.
Ok spell check. Duncan is with antifa.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antifa_(United_States)
“Antifa is a political movement of autonomous, self-styled anti-fascist groups, including in the United States.” “Antifa focuses more on fighting far-right ideology directly than on encouraging pro-left policy.”
So Duncan, you have picked a side to root for in Civil War 2.
At least that will give you a sporting interest in the slaughter to come.
Attention Doomsday People — reach for your pipe —– the latest flavour of hopium is now on the market
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-27/researchers-announce-nuclear-fusion-breakthrough
He-3 where do they get it and how much does the word have? People have talked for decades about mining the surface of the moon for He-3 that is produced there by high energy proton bombardment from the sun. So we are saved by fusion fueled by lunar mining of He-3? What could go wrong.
I won’t hold my breath.
Anyone one with wisdom would’nt be there in the first place.
True-
Any pablum eating middle of the road ‘Merikin would be watching tee vee.
Hey, how about those Dodgers?
Bad day for the Brown Shirts:
Masked anarchists violently rout right-wing demonstrators in Berkeley
http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Masked-anarchists-violently-rout-right-wing-12041287.php
“We’re just puzzled as to why people consider violence a valid tactic,” said Kristin Leimkuhler, 60, of Berkeley, who with a group of neighbors left the protests when they turned chaotic. “We felt disappointed and surprised by how many people were not in any way discreet about being with antifa — in fact being very bold and prepared to be violent.”
I am for free speech.
I am against “white supremacists”.
I am against “masked violent anarchists”.
I agree with these liberal Berkeley citizens who are disappointed in this leftist violence.
I denounce violence from left-wing AND right-wing demonstrators.
who will join me in denouncing these violent groups?
Some strategies are not for public relations.
Sometimes you need to let people know consequences who only understand violence.
It is more complicated then most liberals brought up in a peace and justice world realize, or want to understand.
If you eliminate strategies, you diminish reality.
so you are NOT denouncing these violent groups?
I leave everything open for observation.
Don’t subtract or add anything to reality.
Pro Buddhist tip—
okay, so as of now, you are clearly not denouncing these violent groups.
Depends on the “violent” group.
I don’t discount violence as a tactic.
When a someone breaks a window, he is a vandal.
When someone clears a forest, he is a developer.
Pick a side already. “You can’t afford to be neutral on a moving train”
Truth flows form the barrel of a gun.
Isn’t that power flows from the barrel of a gun?
I thought truth flowed from a bottle of bourbon.
Two Greek Anarchists were making Molotov Cocktails.
One says to the other:
“Who are we going to throw these at?”
The other says:
“What are you, some kind of intellectual?”
I am for Entertainment!
Libtards/Snowflakes vs Trumptards.
Maybe throw a few lions into the fray to make it interesting.
Bring it!!!
More correctly, a bad day for civilized democracy.
If you have a running sore, it requires treatment, not scratching.
The best treatment for these people is simply to ignore them – they are very good at making themselves look foolish and their ideology is repulsive enough.
But yes, it is exciting in a maliciously childish way to put on masks and uniforms (by the way, brown shirts, have they no sense of history?!!!) and have a punch-up: it accomplishes nothing except lots of ‘I was there!’ stories repeated into senility, (like the so-called ‘Battle of Lewisham’ in London,) and a further deterioration in public life.
Yes, I wish they would wear brown shirts. it would at east make the joke funny.
Harvey throws a wrench into U.S. energy engine
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-harvey-energy-idUSKCN1B70YQ
Trump to reverse ban on local police using military equipment: report
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/348201-trump-to-reverse-ban-on-local-police-using-military-equipment-report
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-26/matt-taibbi-confirms-media-real-villain-creating-world-dumb-enough-trump
Theory: The El ders wanted Trump as president for his entertainment value — he is a distraction from the collapse that is imminent?
“If you look at the groups that Trump has primarily targeted: CNN, The New York Times, The Washington Post, Saturday Night Live, Stephen Colbert,” he said, “every single one of those has seen a quite remarkable growth in their viewing figures, in their sales figures.”
Disaster Capitalism.
Take what you can get.
Don’t waste a opportunity.
One day difference:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIRMfLRUIAADDIr.jpg
The comments section of this article has some great insights on CO2 and funding/science scams related to research results.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-27/houston-surreal-and-after-photo
Kicking some fascist a z:
3:03 p.m. Joey Gibson “rescued”: Police officials said the detaining of Patriot Prayer leader Joey Gibson was actually a “rescue.” Gibson was placed in handcuffs after being chased, hit and pepper-sprayed by a mob of black-clad demonstrators. He was not arrested or charged.
Were you attempting to bring violence and turmoil to my neighborhood? Are you just here for the publicity and the blunt agitation? Many think so.
Of course you don’t want discussion or debate, or to try and convert anyone to your filthy, brick-dumb “cause.” You simply wish to punch kindness in the face and stab compassion in the eyeball and run back to your parents’ basement, cackling like rocks. And later, crying. And huffing glue.
All things are limited n a finite world. At the moment the number of humans is having a rare unconstrained period. These non-equilibrium periods are short lived (<30 reproduction periods). Humans will soon be constrained again and our numbers will match our resources. I am surprised no one wants to try to export some of the death and suffering to outsiders in other countries.
“I am surprised no one wants to try to export some of the death and suffering to outsiders in other countries.”
this has been ongoing for centuries. The British Empire, yes?
the “first world” does try to give some aid to the “third world”.
but mostly, richer countries try to obtain large amounts of resources from poorer countries, and increase their wealth at the expense of these poorer countries.
and this will only get worse as The Collapse approaches.
“this has been ongoing for centuries. The British Empire, yes?”
Don’t be silly. We Brits only got the Empire by being jolly decent fellows. After all, the OBE (Order of the British Empire) is still one of our top honours. Just see how barbaric the USA became after escaping the Empire. Trump should apologise to the Queen for all the trouble those Americans have caused and pay a 14 trillion dollar bill to be allowed back into the fold.
I didn’t say the US Empire was any better or worse than The British Empire.
though you Brits have the better music:
I agree somewhat.
In the 60’s it was all about SF and London.
The price of a Hurricane keeps going up. – Home Depot (Kemah, Texas).
http://imgur.com/a/pDHhc
the small print says: Lower prices Guaranteed.
okay, so about $1.75 per bottle.
not outrageous for 20 oz Dasani.
(though I try to never buy water.)
but IF this is a large price increase, Home Depot should be shamed.
http://imgur.com/a/1KKtj
I like Fall. Autumn is a good season.
I like capitalism too.
and I’m very patient.
I can wait another decade or two for The Collapse.
but October ’17 is looming like a dark cloud on the horizon.
Taylor Swift now requires you to buy several items of merchandise to even get a chance to buy tickets to her concerts
http://mashable.com/2017/08/25/taylor-swift-ticketmaster-reputation/#.6o.VBUxVSqU
Her fame was purchased for her by her wealthy father.
No better use of money than improving the prospects of one’s offspring. 🙂
In Britain, the skilled working class used to fix their kids up with jobs, the unskilled had little or no chance to rise up the scale.
I know. Everyone starts out the game equal like David asserted. LOL
surely a different David?
Enter and exit through the gift shop.
Fascism is capitalism in decay.
— Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
The Capitalist will sell us the rope we will hang them with.
-Lenin
https://media.tenor.co/images/ab919a7b82fa049b0d0c81eff1b0634f/tenor.gif
And what was that sick little man’s view of Totalitarianism?
USSR
1917 – 1991
wow.
that didn’t last very long.
All hierarchical organized systems get taken over by sociopaths (often psychopaths, just look around).
The solution is obvious.
You need new people who doesn’t organize in hierarchies and conquer, steal and plunder other people?
Lenin was perceptive!
Now here’s a talk which really well summarises the economy as has happened since the post war period. I had never heard of Mark Blyth until yesterday, but his talk is really informative. There is only one blot and that is that he thinks taxes fund spending while at the same time saying the government has a blank cheque to buy whatever it desires that is for sale. The logic escapes so many people.
The talk was pre-Trump but he explains why he was going to win. Spot on there!
I listened to part of this, and I wasn’t nearly as impressed as you. He definitely misses the importance of energy growth in creating economic growth. Says there will be no financial crisis.
The reality of the agriculture in Slovakia this year:
The south part of the country with the lowlands that used to have record corn and wheat crops in the past: due to the spring frost and the subsequent drought, the agricultural subjects have such a low crops that their existence is endangared.
The north part of the country, with a lot of forests: the crops of the oil-seed rape are so damaged by the wild animals that it is uneconomical to harvest it.
Hey, I just wanted to apologise for my insensitive remarks surrounding the impact of Hurricane Harvey.
This is shaping up to be a terrible calamity. Worse than Katrina. I can’t believe some of the pictures coming out of Texas!
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/1d/58/da/1d58da83bad162e2cfdf758f57dc8c0b–weather-conditions-texas-pride.jpg
Look on the bright side all the clean up will boost their gdp and give people jobs. And they will get tons of money in donations.
Even debt is helpful to the economy, Job layoffs are not. Neither is a truly lower amount of oil and gas reaching end users, either because it is unavailable or it is un-affordably expensive.
It takes character to apologise for something said on the net.
It takes even more character not to say it in the first place.
Well said Xabier.
It takes even more character (and a lot more characters) to apologize for something said on the net than it does not to say it in the first place.
Wrong, lassie!
Looks like quite a mess!
Wing Pawn wake up event.
“Houston, we have a problem.”
(sorry, I’m sure I’m not the first one with this.)
it does vividly show how completely indifferent Nature is to the human species.
It’s just as well there’s no such thing as globbular warruming, or else it could have been much worse. Fyres, fluds – they’re all started on purpose by ho oli gans. That’s the gospel according to Flatulent Eddy, of course, and he’s never wrong.
Deadliest US hurricane.
The Hurricane of 1900, also known as the Great Galveston Hurricane, made landfall on September 8, 1900, in Galveston, Texas, in the United States. It had estimated winds of 145 miles per hour (233 km/h) at landfall, making it a Category 4 storm on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1900_Galveston_hurricane
Proof of woooobbal glormmming way back in 1900.
Look in the mirror — now you know what a MOREon looks like
1990 is long ago – lot of water under the bridge since then, thikkie. Forgotten Katrina, and all the fluds n fyres since this century? And the methane craters in Siberia? Go away and learn something, girlies More-on.
I notice my t-h-i-c-k-t-w-a-t- response to the FE got sen-sor-ed. One rule for FE’s insults, another rule for the rest.
It is … as it should be
Psile, I like your comments very much, don’t listen to that aZZwhole.
I think Houston and the likes of New Orleans/Katrina point to unsustainability. Why would anyone live in a swamp that periodically floods? Nature will wipe away man’s gains and production on a regular basis. Man’s cities always come back, relying on excess energy to repair the damage. One day there will be no money or resources to repair and restore.
Some new statistics on earnings, etc in Spain: in the rich North, some 25% of people say that they have had to cut back significantly in basic expenditure since 2008,and continue to have to do so.
This is the region where unemployment, although quite high – above all among the young – is still nothing like that in the poorer parts,above all the South which was construction-led pre-2008.
Basic goods and services slip further out of reach, in such a way that they will never come back.
Society is like a stew, unless stirred frequently, the scum rises to the top.
-Abbey
But stir too deep, and you only bring up the dregs. 🙂
Why The Shale Oil “Miracle” Is Becoming A “Debacle”
https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/110440/why-shale-oil-miracle-becoming-debacle
Ultimately, the problem is that we cannot get the price up high enough to cover the cost of the shale drillers. Coal producers are having the same problem. Other oil producers are too.
Becoming a debacle?
Gail,
I’d like to mention a general question: your basic idea is that raising exploration costs of diminishing resources increase unit costs which leads to lower wages and thus produce a demand crisis.
Now looking to Michal Kalecki’s profit equation, profit equals roughly industrial investment (P=Cp + I). Raising exploration costs however are undoublty connected to higher industry investment. Therefore higher exploration costs should boost economy. Where are we going to with this?
My humble solution: Kalecki’s equation only works if the investment leads to lower unit costs (and a higher productivity), which is not the case with higher exploration costs.
What do you think?
Jan
I agree with you that we need lower unit costs of energy in order for economic growth to occur.
Part of our problem with wind and solar is that we have not really figured out what true unit costs are–they are very high, but we never figured that out. We only looked at engineering studies that claim “it can be done,” at some unknown high cost.
Here’s another formula:
Excessive emotional investment = ridiculous forecasts of viability.
Or,
Believe in fairies at the bottom of the garden, and you will probably see them. 🙂
The fairies will, of course, be waving solar wands.
“I agree with you that we need lower unit costs of energy in order for economic growth to occur.”
Is it realistic to expect and call for continual economic growth in A Finite World? Is economic growth a good thing…or is time to face up to the end of growth and to whatever comes next?
What comes next is suffering and death…. I vote for more growth… whatever it takes
There is a very tight connection between world GNP and world energy consumption – so tight that the idea that money is only a proxy for surplus energy is obvious:
We buy a lot of things. These things – no matter of what type – are produced under industrial circumstances. Wages eventually are spent buying millions of different products which are all produced under industrial circumstances. Wind turbines are industrial products and all auxiliary means from wages to the final decommissioning must be taken into account if you try to figure out what the costs of for instance a wind park are. Why not convert the total costs of the wind farm to industrial kwh? If all expenses in connection with the wind park – from birth to death – are 1 billion euro, and you know the price of 1 kwh in Europe where the wind generators are build (maybe approx. 0,07 euro per kwh) then you could have bought 14 billion kwh – if the wind park produces 42 billion kwh in its entire life time the eroie is SO FAR 3. But then you have to take into account all the minuses in connection with an intermittent energy producer and it may very well be so, that the actual eroie falls under 1.
Makes sense.
Too bad you can’t put a price on intermittency.
Global Warming vs. Economic Collapse
Fast Eddy: Is anyone on FW afraid of boiling to death?
Tim Groves: Only after the end of BAU…. In a cannibals’ pot.
🙂
yum yum.
tastes like chicken?
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/19/business/the-stock-market-has-been-magical-it-cant-last.html
The Stock Market Has Been Magical. It Can’t Last.
It is not operating in a “normal” world anymore. Instead, we are living in a world of ETFs, and of hope for growth, even without profit. The disconnect is becoming greater and greater.
high speed computers do almost all stock trading nowadays.
the question is: does their programming allow the market to go down?
it’s doubtful.
the market may continue up until The Collapse.
though the “money” it’s valued in may drop like a rock.
We live in the collapsing world, which more and more uses machines and technology to keep at least its nice facade.
Yes, MG, and the greatest invention was the small glowing-screen pacifier and distractor.
and mine is a laptop.
will The Collapse be televised?
I don’t care, as long as I keep getting the latest updates via the internet.
if there’s no information during The Collapse, it won’t be as fun.
Collapse = power off for good. So no tv or internet – no press — total blackout.
Your world will shrink to what you see out of your window.
sure, on the day that The Collapse is complete.
but I’m still agreeing with the saying “slowly at first, then all at once.”
perhaps the USA will be one of the last places to have electricity, and here we will be able online to experience most of the “all at once” before the power goes off.
who knows?
“slowly at first” might last a decade or two.
No doubt the entire world won’t go dark at the same moment — so we will get to enjoy watching countries as they descend into total chaos….
Venezuela first?
Or perhaps there will be a news blackout — seeing a country disintegrate like that would not be good for morale….
Saw this a few weeks ago, not sure of it’s origin
Never saw that one, and it’s not on his website but from the style of the cartoon, it’s definitely Steve Cutts. He’s the one that created this gem a few years ago: