The way the world economy is manipulated by world leaders is a little like a giant video game. The object of the game is to keep the world economy growing, without too many adverse consequences to particular members of the world economy. We represent this need for growth of the world economy as being similar to making a jet airplane fly at ever-higher altitudes.
Figure 1. Author’s view of the situation we are facing. World leaders look at their video screens and adjust their controllers to try to make the world economy fly at ever-higher levels.
World leaders look at their video game screens for indications regarding where the world economy is now. They also want to see whether there are specific parts of the economy that are doing badly.
The game controllers that the world leaders have are somewhat limited in the functions they can perform. Typical adjustments they can make include the following:
- Add or remove government programs aimed at providing jobs for would-be workers
- Add or remove government sponsored pension plans and payments to those without jobs
- Add or remove laws regulating efficiencies of new vehicles
- Change who or what is taxed, and the overall level of taxation
- Through the above mechanisms, change government debt levels
- Change interest rates
There are numerous problems with this approach. For one thing, the video game screen doesn’t give a very complete picture of what is happening. For another, the aspects of the economy that can be controlled are rather limited. Furthermore, the situation is very complex–there seem to be several “sides” of the economy that need to “win” at the same time, for the economy to continue to grow: (a) oil importers and oil exporters, (b) businesses and their would-be customers, (c) governments and their would-be taxpayers, and (d) asset holders and the would-be buyers of these assets, such as families needing new homes.
An even bigger problem is a physics problem that is hidden from the view of those operating the control mechanism. Jet airplanes in the real world cannot rise beyond a certain altitude (varying depending upon the plane), because the atmosphere becomes “too thin.” There is a parallel problem in the economic world. The atmosphere that allows an economy to grow is provided by a combination of (a) an increasing supply of cheap-to-produce energy, and (b) increased technology to put this growing energy supply to use. This atmosphere can become too thin for several reasons, including the higher cost of energy production, rising population, and growing wage disparity.
We know that in the real world, a jet airplane cannot rise ever-higher. Instead, at some point, the airplane hits what has been called its “coffin corner.”
Figure 2. Diagram of Coffin Corner by Aleks Udris of Boldmethod. On the chart, Vs is the velocity; MMO is the Maximum Mach Number.
According to Aleks Udris, “The region is deadly. Get too slow, and you’ll stall the jet at high altitude. Get too fast, and you’ll exceed your critical mach number. The air over your wings will go supersonic, you’ll pitch down, the aircraft will accelerate, and your wings will fall off. Also bad.”
What Happens As Coffin Corner Limits Are Reached in the Economic World?
What do world leaders do, as the world economy hits limits? One temptation is for the world leaders in Figure 1 to take their foot off the throttle that is operated by low interest rates and more debt, because they don’t seem to be providing very much benefit anymore. The leaders fear that if more debt is added at low interest rates, it risks creating “asset bubbles” that are easily disturbed if any little bump to the economy occurs. If a big bubble pops, there is a significant risk that the economy could fall down to a much lower level. This is like stalling the jet at high altitude.
World leaders can also use approaches that create situations more like “making the wings come off” the economy. These approaches involve favoring one group over another. For example, a government can give big tax breaks to businesses, but raise taxes on individual citizens. Businesses will ultimately be harmed by this approach, because they depend on individual citizens for their sales. The result is like tearing the wings off the airplane.
Another approach that would tear the wings off the economy involves actions by a different group of world leaders than those shown in Figure 1, namely the leaders from OPEC and Russia. These leaders have different video game screens and different game controllers. They can manipulate the world economy by reducing the supply of oil they provide. With this approach, they hope to increase the price of oil, and thus obtain a larger share of the world’s goods and services through higher tax revenue.
Raising the oil price would benefit oil exporters, but would make goods and services more expensive for oil importing countries. Ultimately, this approach would lead to recession in oil importing nations. The result would likely be worse than the 2008-2009 recession–another way to make the wings come off the economy.
Let’s look in a little more detail at what is happening, and what goes wrong:
[1] Energy plays a huge role in this game, because a growing supply of cheap-to-produce energy allows greater worker productivity.
It takes energy of various types to make the economy grow, because energy is needed whenever we move something, or heat something, or use electricity to operate something. We use energy products to leverage our human labor. For example, we use a truck to deliver a package, rather than walking and carrying the item in our hands. If fresh water is in short supply, we use energy to operate a desalination plant, and thus produce the fresh water we need.
It is generally workers who produce goods and services. If energy supply is inexpensive and readily available, it is easy for governments or businesses to create “tools” to make these workers more productive. These tools include such things as roads, vehicles, machines of all types, and even computers. If the quantity and capability of these tools are increasing, the labor of these workers is increasingly leveraged by the availability of these tools. This is what allows economic growth.
[2] The extent of world economic growth seems to depend primarily on how quickly total energy consumption is growing.
If we look at historical economic growth, we see that the rate of growth of energy consumption seems to play a major role.
Figure 3. World GDP growth compared to world energy consumption growth for selected time periods since 1820. World real GDP trends for 1975 to present are based on USDA real GDP data in 2010$ for 1975 and subsequent. (Estimated by author for 2015.) GDP estimates for prior to 1975 are based on Maddison project updates as of 2013. Growth in the use of energy products is based on a combination of data from Appendix A data from Vaclav Smil’s Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects together with BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015 for 1965 and subsequent.
The highest rates of world economic growth took place in the 1950-1965 period, and in the 1965-1975 period. These were both periods of very high growth in energy consumption. As we will see below, these were both periods when the price of oil was less than $20 per barrel, for almost the entire period.
If we look at economic growth over shorter periods, we also see a strong correlation between world economic growth and growth in energy consumption:
Figure 4. World growth in energy consumption vs. world GDP growth. Energy consumption from BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2017. World GDP is GDP in US 2010$, as compiled by World Bank.
[3] On Figure 4 (above), the widening gap between GDP growth and energy consumption since 2013 could either represent (a) Much greater efficiency in using energy or (b) A problem in measuring true economic growth.
We can see true efficiency improvements in the 1975-1985 and the 1985-1995 periods shown on Figure 3. These were the periods when the world was truly trying to “get away from oil,” after a spike of high prices in the 1970s. Governments around the world were encouraging new smaller cars; electricity generation was being changed from oil to nuclear; home heating was being changed from oil to natural gas or electricity. The new furnaces installed were much more efficient than the old ones. Thus, during this period, efficiency/technology improvements were aiding economic growth to a greater extent than usual.
Now, in the period since 2013, much of the “low hanging fruit” has already been picked. We may still be finding some technology gains, but it seems likely that at least part of the problem is an “economic growth counting problem.” GDP looks like it is growing, but it is really very hollow economic growth. Governments invest in projects of essentially no value, and their investment is counted as GDP. For example, they invest in unneeded roads, in apartments that citizens cannot really afford, in educational institutions that do not produce graduates with wages that are sufficiently high to pay for education’s high cost, and in high-priced medical cures that are unaffordable by 99% of the population. Are these things truly contributions to GDP?
We also find businesses that look like they are growing, but in fact are taking on increasing amounts of debt as they sell off assets. This is not a sustainable model! We encounter energy companies that claim to be doing “sort of” alright, but their profits are so low that they need to cut back on new investment, and they need to borrow in order to have funds to pay dividends to shareholders. There is something seriously wrong with this growth!
[4] The economic “atmosphere” becomes thinner and thinner, when oil prices rise above an inflation-adjusted price of $20 per barrel.
Back in the time period prior to 1973, oil prices were generally below $20 per barrel, in inflation adjusted terms. Since then, prices have tended to be above this level.
Figure 5. Historical oil prices are Brent oil prices in 2016$ from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017; $20 per barrel is the maximum price level where oil is truly affordable; and $300 per barrel is the maximum price per barrel that the International Energy Agency seems to believe is possible for the world economy.
When oil (and other energy prices) were very low, companies could add tools to make workers more effective with little expenditure. As a result, the United States saw wages growing much more rapidly than inflation prior to 1968 (Figure 6).
Figure 6. Chart comparing income gains by the top 10% to income gains by the bottom 90% by economist Emmanuel Saez. Based on an analysis of IRS data, published in Forbes.
Once prices of oil started rising, prices of tools (broadly defined) rose. Governments and companies needed more debt to buy these tools. It became more of a burden to add capital goods of all kinds. Governments tried to raise GDP by adding debt, but to a significant extent they ended up with higher debt to GDP ratios rather than the rapid growth they were looking for (Figure 7).
Figure 7. Worldwide average inflation-adjusted annual growth rates in debt and GDP, for selected time periods. See post on debt for explanation of methodology.
The changes in the economy that allowed continued growth (more debt and more technology) tended to push the economy toward more wage disparity, in part because more technology required more training for some of the workers, but not for others. This allowed wages of the workers with special training to rise.
Furthermore, the need to repay debt with interest tended to funnel wealth toward the financial sector, and toward those within the economy who could afford to hold financial assets. These changes left less of the output of the economy for non-elite workers.
Economists never really understood what was happening. They had never thought through the important role that energy plays in the economy. Cheap energy is needed to create jobs. It is jobs, and the wages that those jobs pay, that tend to suffer when oil prices are too high (Figure 8). Thus, high-priced oil has a double impact on the economy:
- It makes goods of many kinds more expensive.
- It reduces job availability and wages.
Figure 8. Average wages in 2012$ compared to Brent oil price, also in 2012$. Average wages are total wages based on BEA data adjusted by the CPI-Urban, divided by total population. Thus, they reflect changes in the proportion of population employed as well as wage levels.
Logic would suggest that the economy cannot really operate on high-priced oil. Lower wages and higher prices do not peacefully coexist! We should expect high oil prices to be very unstable. Even if prices can reach a high level in response to a specific shortage or stimulus, we cannot expect these high prices to be maintained for a sustained period, without added stimulus. Unstable high prices are not likely to give rise to more oil production; they cannot be depended upon.
Economists have never understood this situation. Instead, they have made pronouncements that at some point in the future, they expect that oil would become scarce. Because of this scarcity, oil prices would rise. In their view, when oil prices rise, high-priced substitutes would suddenly become the best option available; somehow, the economy would become able to operate using these high-priced substitutes. (If energy products were not needed for labor productivity, this view might make some sense. In the real world, it does not.)
It never occurred to organizations such as the International Energy Association (IEA) that high oil prices might be a problem for the economy. The IEA has shown exhibits suggesting that oil prices could theoretically rise to $300 per barrel. Of course, at such an elevated price, there would be an almost unlimited amount of oil available to extract (Exhibit 9).
Figure 9. IEA Figure 1.4 from its World Energy Outlook 2015, showing how much oil can be produced at various price levels.
[5] The real enemies of continued economic growth are (a) diminishing returns with respect to oil and other energy production, (b) continued population growth, and (c) increasing wage and wealth disparity.
We seem to be playing a video game where the players don’t understand who the real enemies are.
Diminishing returns with respect to oil and other energy production have to do with the cost of energy extraction rising ever-higher, as more resources are extracted. There are a lot of resources that we can “see,” but that we cannot economically extract, unless prices rise to very high levels.
Figure 9. My version of the resource triangle for oil. Note that oil shale is not the same as tight oil, found in shale formations. Oil shale is kerogen that must be processed at very high temperatures in order to produce oil. This is rarely done, because of the high processing cost. Tight oil is not on this chart. Tight oil probably would be above “onshore heavy oil; oil sands.” It still would disappear, if oil prices permanently fell to $20 per barrel or less.
Continued population growth is a problem because it is really “energy per capita” that matters. Each individual needs food, transportation, and housing. All of these things take energy. Many years ago, when most of the workers were farmers, it was necessary to create ever-smaller farms, as population rose. This clearly would lead to lower food production per farmer, unless some sort of technological breakthrough was taking place at the same time. Today, we have a parallel issue.
Increasing wage disparity tends to be associated with the rising use of technology. When most labor is hand labor, workers truly do “pay each other’s wages.” All wages can be fairly equal. With increased technology, some workers have specialized training; others do not. Some workers are supervisors; others are laborers. Unless the overall output of the economy is rising very rapidly, non-elite workers find themselves increasingly unable to afford the output of the economy. It is this falling “demand” (really affordability) that tends to pull an economy downward.
[6] High oil prices can be temporarily tolerated by an economy, if interest rates are lowered to make this arrangement work.
Clearly, lower interest rates make capital goods of all kinds more affordable to both businesses and individual workers. If we look back at the period since 1981, we see a long period of falling interest rates, acting to stimulate the economy.
When oil prices exceeded $20 per barrel, the economy did not collapse immediately. In “normal” times, lowering interest rates was sufficient stimulus to keep the economy growing (Figure 4).
Figure 10. Ten-year treasuries through Nov. 17, 2017. Chart produced by FRED.
When there is a very big drop in oil prices (as in 2008, related to falling debt levels), then Quantitative Easing (QE) has been helpful (Figure 11). The US began its program of QE in late 2008, when oil prices were near their low point. There were three phases of the US’s QE. The US discontinued the third phase in late 2014, just as oil prices started to slide again.
Figure 11. Monthly Brent oil prices with dates of US beginning and ending QE.
[7] It is quite possible for a disconnect to occur between (a) the cost of oil extraction, and (b) the selling price of oil.
Oil that costs more than $20 per barrel is never very affordable by the economy. It really needs continual stimulus to keep prices at an elevated level. Once debt growth falls too low, the balance between the supply and demand for oil is settled in the direction of the amount of goods and services made with oil that non-elite workers can afford. Prices fall below the cost of production. This seems to be what has happened since 2014.
[8] In fact, since 2014, the selling prices of oil, natural gas, and coal have all fallen below the cost of extraction.
Figure 12. Price per ton of oil equivalent, based on comparative prices for oil, natural gas, and coal given in BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Not inflation adjusted.
It is popular to think that the reason why oil prices are too low is because of overproduction by the United States or Saudi Arabia. When a person stops to realize that essentially the same situation arises for all three fossil fuels, a person begins to understand that there likely is an affordability issue underlying the low prices for all three fuels. The affordability issue, of course, arises because energy supply is not rising quickly enough because (at over $20 per barrel), it is too expensive to be truly affordable. The “atmosphere is too thin” at today’s high cost of energy extraction.
9. Coal production seems to have “peaked” because at today’s low prices, few mines find the extraction of coal profitable.
It is popular in “Peak Oil” circles to believe as the economists do: oil and other energy prices can rise endlessly, because of growing “demand.” Economists have never stopped to think that at any given price, there is an affordability issue for customers. If prices drop too low, there is a profitability issue for those operating extraction facilities.
If we look at the situation with coal, we see a situation where peak production seems to have been reached because of low prices. China has closed down mines because falling prices have made mines that were previously profitable, unprofitable (Figure 13). Coal is the lowest-cost fuel; if it cannot be mined profitably, the world economy has a problem.
Figure 13. China’s energy production, based on data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2017.
In fact, it appears as though we have reached peak coal on a worldwide basis, as a result of low prices (Figure 14). It is hard to see any major production area that can grow substantially in the future, without much higher prices.
Figure 14. World coal production, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy Data. (For 1965-1980, consumption is substituted for production, because only consumption is given, and imports/exports are likely small.
[10] The world economy needs to be able to keep repaying debt with interest. If world economic growth slows too much, this will not be possible.
We may already be reaching a “too slow growth limit.” Below this growth limit, it becomes impossible to repay debt with interest, especially if interest rates rise. We may already be reaching this point, based on the lack of growth in energy consumption per capita shown in Figure 15. (Also, as noted in Item [3], it seems quite possible that recent GDP growth indications are overstated.)
Figure 15. Average energy prices (averaging oil, coal, and natural gas) versus the total quantity of energy products consumed per capita, based on BP energy consumption data and UN population data. (Prices have not been inflation adjusted.)
Figure 15 suggests that affordability and price go together. When the world economy is growing rapidly, energy prices tend to rise (as does energy consumption). When energy consumption per capita falls, it is a sign that the world economy is not doing well.
One of the things that confuses matters is the very different economic growth results for different parts of the world. If oil prices are low, this improves economic growth prospects from the point of oil importers, such as the United States and China. This is what our video game players are looking at, not the results for the world as a whole. It is oil exporters, such as Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, who are having problems.
If we look at world news, Venezuela may collapse because of low oil prices. Saudi Arabia has found it necessary to take on debt, and has undergone regime change, at least partly related to low oil prices. Norway is proposing that its oil and gas fund no longer invest in oil and gas companies, because it expects that there is a significant chance the oil price will not rise high enough to bring companies back to adequate profitability.
[11] The whole “game” has been confused by a lot of not-quite-correct pronouncements from academic circles.
A lot of well-meaning people have tried to solve our energy problems, but haven’t gotten the story right.
Economists have gotten the story pretty much 100% wrong. Energy is very important for the economy. Furthermore, energy prices don’t rise endlessly.
Peak Oilers have confused matters by talking about oil, coal and natural gas being determined by the amount of technically recoverable resources in the ground. This might be true if energy prices could rise endlessly, but clearly they cannot. By following the wrong views of economists, Peak Oilers have led world leaders to believe that far more resources are available to be extracted than really is the case.
People who call themselves Biophysical Economists haven’t really gotten the story correct either. The Biophysical Economists realized that there was a need for a measure for diminishing returns. They put together a measure which they called Energy Returned on Energy Invested. The measure, unfortunately, only “sort of” works. It gives a lot of wrong answers. It does not suggest that oil prices above $20 per barrel are a problem. It also does not suggest that substitutes for oil that are priced above $20 per barrel are a problem. It tends to give a lot of “false positives” when it comes to the question of whether renewables can be substituted for fossil fuels. It seems to suggest that a particular ratio is important, when it is really the total quantity of an energy product available at a very low price that is important.
I should not pick on the Biophysical Economists. There are many others with academic credentials who produce metrics that really aren’t very helpful. Energy payback time is not a very helpful metric, especially from the point of view of deciding whether or not to use a particular device. It is not the energy that the economy must pay back; it is the full cost of manufacturing the device that needs to be recovered, including human labor costs and taxes. In some applications, the cost of mitigating intermittency may also need to be considered.
Even the standard Levelized Cost of Energy calculations can give misleading indications, if they are used on intermittent renewables without taking into account the cost of mitigating the intermittency.
Conclusion
With all of these issues, it is not surprising that world leaders have difficulty playing the energy and economy game. In fact, it is hard to see any winning strategy.
One of the issues that makes the game impossible to win is the fact that all sides must win. A solution that cuts out the oil exporters is a problem for an economy dependent on oil. Any solution that cuts out the workers is a problem, partly because businesses need workers as consumers, and partly because governments need workers as taxpayers.
The reason I have not included any discussion of renewables is because at this point in time, we do not have any renewables that are sufficiently inexpensive and sufficiently scalable to represent a solution.
WORLD’S FIRST ELECTRIC SHIP NOW SAILING IN CHINA—AND HAULING COAL
http://www.newsweek.com/worlds-first-electric-ship-now-sailing-china-and-hauling-coal-740015
How amusing …. the ship will no doubt ply the waters from the coal yards — to the power plant — which will burn the coal — and charge the ship — so it can cruise back to the coal yards …..
Otherwise known as an endless circle jerk….
I can’t find any mention of costs on my google searches….
“This kind of ship takes into consideration the harmony between humans and nature and can protect water quality and marine life, and should be copied by other ships sailing on local rivers,” says Chinese environmentalist Wang Yongchen’
Hey…. wait a minute…..
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7f/Herzogin_Cecilie_SLV_AllenGren.jpg
We need an image of a hairy man floating on a log, pushing along with a branch, – that’s eco-friendly, sort of. 🙂
I suppose anything beside treading water and praying for a ship (of any kind) to rescue you is wishful thinking.
Humans were carbon liberators. End of story.
Good point i1 and liberators for many other combinations as well! Perhaps that is natures plan, adding complexity for the next stage of evolution. Humans providing the ingredients for the next leap toward of intelligent life! Hard to conceive what it will look like or attain?
One thing is the CO2 and other GHG has averted another ice age. Perhaps the cosmic intelligence will pull the plug on the human consumptionians party at the appropriate
time.
The folks I come in contact do not have a clue on our predicament, nor do they care, except one ….he’s response…”They HAVE to come up with something!”
So, my response is if they don’t, I’ll just won’t get a traditional retirement…can’t complain too much about that….
Carbon is good for plants…. more plants = more fossil fuels (in hundreds of millions of years)…. so maybe we will have a another run at this some day….
A billion years goes by in a flash …. for Mother.
I am sure that the purpose of building these electric ships is to use some of China’s coal, and to have a product other countries may choose to buy. Emissions saving is not high on the list.
An electric ship hauling coal. Oh the irony. And I thought a circular economy was impossible. We can haul coal to make electricity to haul more coal. HAHAHAHA!!!!!
The Walmart of Music…reaches junk bond status.
Guitar Center Debt Default “Imminent” – Won’t Survive 2018?
https://youtu.be/0lNUez1JfYs
…maybe they’ll survive by trading crypto?
Makes sense…. if your enterprise is failing … fire sale all your stock… take call your operating cash…. have your staff turn tricks in the washroom with customers and split the take….
And buy Bitcoin…
You never know…………
The Lord’s mercy is great, but not infinite.
a shame….they hosted a great drum-off competition every year. My son competed in it.
It gets better. Elon Musk has a brother who’s also an entrepreneur and who also doesn’t understand the laws of Physics that prevent “green” and organic things from scaling up.
Organic food…real organic food is a much more inefficient way of growing food.
Inefficiency cannot scale.
Things that cannot scale can not turn into a large multinational businesses that makes money.
I’m of two world about people like this. He is either “running game” or he really isn’t very bright.
My money is on the “not very bright but had a lot of people telling him that he was gifted simply because he was born into money”
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/16/dining/kimbal-musk-food.html
BAU the end of? Not if Norway has any say…
This is a great day for the Kingdom of Norway and the region of northern Norway,” a jubilant Oil and Energy Minister Terje Søviknes said.
Statoil executive vice president Margareth Øvrum called the Johan Castberg project a “central part of the future development” of Artic oil projects, claiming it will “create substantial value and spinoffs for Norway.”
Hammerfest vice mayor Marianne Sivertsen Næss said the project was “extremely positive,” stressing its weight for the entire region. At present, Hammerfest already serves as the base for the Goliat project, Norway’s first oil drilling project in the Arctic.
Kjell Giæver, the director of Petro Arctic, a regional network of oil and gas industry suppliers, went so far as to say that the project puts northern Norway on the map as the country’s “gold coast.”
https://sputniknews.com/business/201712061059741997-norway-arctic-oil/
But at today’s prices???
Statoil said it will be profitable even at $ 30 a barrel, so no worries …
http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/san-diego-continues-desperate-attempt-to-control-hepatitis-a-outbreak_12042017
The same problem occurs in Slovakia, especially in the capital of Bratislava. Densly populated areas have their drawbacks:
Number of hepatitis incidences growing in Slovakia
https://spectator.sme.sk/c/20706763/number-of-hepatitis-incidences-growing-in-slovakia.html
so 2018 and 2019 are looking good…
We will keep our fingers crossed. Having Bitcoin shoot toward infinity is not a good sign.
yes, I think it’s worth repeating that soaring Bitcoin prices and art prices and stock markets are actually signs of danger…
the bigger the Everything Bubble gets, the bigger the “pop”.
friend of Saudi Arabia’s MBS buys Da Vinci…
https://www.sabinews.com/mbss-friend-mystery-buyer-450-million-da-vincis-painting-jesus-christ-alaraby/
It’s called “Money Laundering”
Apart from the ‘Da Vinci’ , which was ‘mis-marketed’ shall we say, – the upper end of the art market has stagnated, and auction houses have been cutting staff and closing offices. Not a bust yet, but teetering…..
Does artwork rise and fall with commodities in general?
I agree. That Bitcoin, which is completely virtual, could be perceived as having value must mean there is nothing of real value left.
Will the US Really Experience a Violent Upheaval in 2020?
“My model suggests that the next [peak in violence] will be worse than the one in 1970 because demographic variables such as wages, standards of living and a number of measures of intra-elite confrontation are all much worse this time,” said Peter Turchin, an ecologist, evolutionary biologist and mathematician at the University of Connecticut.
https://www.livescience.com/22109-cycles-violence-2020.html
Peter Turchin doesn’t understand the role that energy plays in this, and that there is a physics problem underlying some of the patterns he is seeing.
We have a problem with all of our academic areas being too isolated. Each researcher develops a theory, without understanding how the other areas fit in.
It’s the best way to obtain grants and a reputation in academia. Whereas ‘Collapse Studies’ needs inspired generalists.
“We have a problem with all of our academic areas being too isolated.” – Exactly. I totally agree. Too many “experts” that live in a vacuum.
Limits to Economic Growth? Lecture given at Nottingham University on 28th Nov 2017.
http://www.feasta.org/2017/12/07/limits-to-economic-growth-2/
This talk is reasonably good. Brian Davey brings together some of the pieces of the predicament we are in. I don’t think he realizes that the economy has to grow, but he does see that the potential solutions we have been looking at are a long way from working. Intermittency adds a huge cost, if we want to use wind and solar, for example. He also brings up the point of affordability, which is something most have missed.
The other thing he is missing is that there is physics reason behind what he is seeing (including the growing wage disparity). He is taking steps in the right direction, but isn’t yet to the full story of where we are.
.
THE RELIGION OF ENERGY
“These studies consider intuition and analytical thought as opposed systems, and while this is frequently applicable, previous research has found that in some people these two modes of thought co-exist to a high degree and are associated with supernatural beliefs.”
https://www.psychologytoday.com/…/reason-versus-faith-the-i…
Someone recently posted on the relationship of beauty to what was found over eons to be good for our survival. I wonder if the same can be said about the sense of the sacred?
https://video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search…
I don’t say that ether of these links are the best on the subject, but they are short and suggestive of a need to look further.
Our crisis today lies with energy, about which TPTB (the powers that be) are silent. You have to come to OFW () to hear the subject discussed. If the sacred, like beauty, indicates what serves us best, and if a low-energy future is all we can foresee, then might we grow to worship the non expenditure of energy? If so, we would need to see as sacred stasis and inertia regarding change to the visual environment. We wouldn’t demolish buildings, even if they could be deemed “ugly.” John Ruskin’s mantra that we have no right to destroy what was built by others before us, and thus belonged to them and not to us, would therefore be adhered to in practice. No demolition of anything. No cutting of trees. No scraping away of topsoil.
So now you have less to worry about and your path is clearer. If you’re not going to remove or subtract anything from your environment, then you can focus your energies where they need to be focused: You can hone in on how to add new things without destroying the old. That will require a considerable amount of attention and concentration. For you must not only not destroy anything in material, physical terms; you must not destroy anything in sacred visual terms. Among many other considerations, that will include building on piers, building at modest size, camouflaging structures in such ways as hiding them behind existing ones or behind trees…
So, by default, you almost have the makings of a land use plan. You do not subtract from anything that exists; you add more things to it, and in such a way that it cannot be seen. The alternative would be akin to visiting strangers and bumping into things and rearranging their furniture. Good manners in visits requires restraint, and good manners are required in new development.
Could you look at the links again? They don’t work for me.
I got these to open. If they still don’t work for you I’ll keep looking for better links.
Cinema Modeoff
The Beauty of Islamic Art is based upon Sacred Geometry
Frustrating. The second link didn’t open here at all. I’m just saying that once something gets built–wise and ‘beautiful” or not–it is sacred in some way that has to do with energy. Will keep working on it.
When you have a link to a site open, make certain that you copy the whole link, and paste it into your comment.
‘Baraka.’ Important concept in this respect. I would like to see your principles followed by those who are current;y pouring concrete everywhere here!
Thanks! This link works. Yes, Islamic arctic is based on geometric patterns. It is beautiful, just as the patterns we see in nature are often beautiful.
Math, art, and music are all closely related. Physics is related to these things as well. Somehow, there is an order to the universe that is amazing.
I’ll have to return to the drawing board to figure this out. I was trying to bring intuition, religion, the sacred and analysis into relationship, but it’s still elusive. The part of it I’ll stick with–it’s the intuitive part that I was trying to combine with energy–has to do with land use planning.
Any given scene in a built environment supports a social system.
If you disrupt the scene, you disrupt the social system, in physical and emotional terms.
The social system reflects energy flow of a certain type, along with its emotional corollaries.
That energy flow is too complex and subtle to grasp intellectually.
But the sense of the sacred, based on aesthetic intuition, can make physical disruption jarring and offensive. It realizes that subtle flows of energy are being disorganized and subjected to entropy.
Ergo, it concludes that the purely intellectual calculation based on arbitrary rules of development are grossly destructive, and can only lead to deteriorated energy and social situation.
But since aesthetic excellence tells you how to add new things without disturbing the old (to a significant extent anyhow), you can have a lot of new development as long as it is nuanced and camouflaged.
A hideous, monolithic, building has just been completed by the university here to house thousands of anticipated Chinese graduate tech students, in ‘Silicon Valley UK.’
The architects actually had the nerve to say they wouldn’t be planting any screens of trees, or landscaping, as it would ‘be so beautiful people would want to look at it.’ !!
A local called it ‘a slum of the future.’
Much more accurate, and for now even when new it is depressing to look at.
It is one of the things that – occasionally – make me wish for the End.
“A hideous, monolithic, building has just been completed by the university here to house thousands of anticipated Chinese graduate tech students, in ‘Silicon Valley UK.’”
Was it built with Chinese financing?
“The architects actually had the nerve to say they wouldn’t be planting any screens of trees, or landscaping, as it would ‘be so beautiful people would want to look at it.’ !!”
That’s the part I try to tease away from the practical aspect of housing bodies (or even of perpetuating BAU). What’s happening here is the indulgence in the RELIGION of modernity. There is no reason to have this monolith, or to have it prominently displayed other than to celebrate progress and modernity. Building something less spectacular could support the trucking, cement, construction industries in a different way perhaps (although it might not).
“It is one of the things that – occasionally – make me wish for the End.”
Yes, in a strange way, The End is like money in the bank. It provides some assurance.
Understanding Bitcoin…
You need to own Bitcoin because it is replacing CB fiat cash
Wow Bitcoin is headed towards 20k!
I just made over 20x my investment.
I think I will take half of it off the table — convert it to CB money — and buy a house.
Bitcoin is pointless. It is entirely fake. There is nothing backing it. It is no different than me making Origami flowers… I will ONLY make so many of these…. and they are valuable – they will replace fiat currency …. you need to own my flowers or you will be left out of the future
Will Bitcoin mining help prolong BAU?
“Mining Bitcoins is like finding solutions to complicated math problems that become progressively more difficult. Coins are awarded to computers that verify transactions with an algorithm that gets more complex over time. In the early days of the currency in 2009 — with few computers, few transactions, and a price of $2 per coin — this was something you could do on your home computer.
Now with a global market cap of more than $167 billion, it requires specialized hardware called Application Specific Integrated Circuit miners, and mining operations now use tens of thousands of these power-hungry devices in expansive warehouses to extract more coins.
As a result, the largest mining operations are springing up in parts of the world with cheap electricity, like China. It also means Bitcoin mining is a growing contributor to climate change.
A study from the University of Cambridge earlier this year found that 58 percent of Bitcoin mining comes from China, describing ‘an arms race amongst miners to use the cheapest energy sources and the most efficient equipment to keep operators profitable.’ Cheap power often means dirty power, and in China, miners draw on low-cost coal and hydroelectric generators. De Vries analyzed one mine in China whose carbon footprint was ‘simply shocking,’ emitting carbon dioxide at the same rate as a Boeing 747.”
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/12/2/16724786/bitcoin-mining-energy-electricity
Good way to prop up energy prices…
And those who own the coins would be spending some of the gains — good for GDP.
my newest prediction for 2018…
Bitcoin will rise to $1 million…
you heard it here first!
warning: I’ve been wrong before!
disclaimer: this is not financial advice… please consult your financial professional… Bitcoin is a registered trademark of Hopium Inc… Bitcoin price could go to zero.
Escalators go down as well as up. Your house maybe at risk, if you leave the doors and windows open.
It worked for me…the funny part was in the early days I was offering them for free to geeks and my free time on how to play….kinda like a hobby…
Lets just say I have paid moar tax on sales than my family ever did on everything combined.
Lets not forget they were almost free.
Too late to get in on Bitcoin?
Do not fret!!!
Fast Eddy is set to launch a new crypto — http://www.bitTULIPS.com
Act now — as you can see there is a bank account on that landing page — deposit $5000 NOW — and I will get you on the list to receive digital tulip bulbs soon:
http://www.strangehistory.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/tulip-bulb.jpg
I am here … to help … you.
People will literally believe anything. Lab rats are more intelligent.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KGukAoiGhZU
https://st2.depositphotos.com/2931363/5498/i/950/depositphotos_54986251-stock-photo-surprised-family-watching-tv-at.jpg
https://media.npr.org/assets/img/2014/03/26/OsteenWorship-213795f3e72e3239e08cd14517f49f5831e88252-s900-c85.jpg
http://www.notsuperhuman.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/3009900665_ece6644900.jpg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0K2dvB-7WY
Alllahhhhh…. Akbar…… round and round and round…..
congrats, zenny…
I’m curious… was it hard to prevent hacking or theft or just plain lost coins?
re:
http://time.com/money/5053744/hackers-steal-bitcoin-nicehash/
Well yea the internet is not a safe place. People that keep coins on the net have not done homework.
I am in a new coin now that is also doing well and I like it because it has more features….It begins with the letter E
Can you actually own a physical bitcoin … or is it purely a digital thing?
It is a blockchain…I like the E one better
So you cannot actually get a physical coin for any of these currencies?
As I sift through the ‘news’ this morning —- I find myself feeling what it must feel like to be insane…
From Bitcoin to Tesla semi sales — neither make any sense — yet there will be billions of people the world over reading this stuff and believing it… believing the future has arrived.
I can see that it is very obviously a pack of lies…. but if I were to strike up a conversation with just about any person I were to come across today and claim this was all total bull sh it…. I am 100% confident that they would look at me and think that I was touched…. kinda like one of those dudes you see on busy street corners in any major city claiming he is the second coming….
We are in in maximum overdrive now…. the engines are running red hot….
Don Draper is furiously pushing levers and punching buttons … he is lowering the window shades so that nobody can see the mountain ahead…. he is pumping hopium directly into the cabin now … DIRECTLY INTO THE CABIN!!! … can you smell it …. hints of a barrel of sh it that has been left in a hot sun for 3 days …. mixed with rotting fruit — the breathe deeply signs are flashing …
I am sliding open the shade … I can see the mountain – I can see the mountain – come on people — look LOOK! We don’t want to look Mister…. get outta here …. don’t interrupt our bliss….
http://renewingallthings.com/wp-content/uploads/keep-calm-and-breathe-deeply-26.png
https://poster.keepcalmandposters.com/default/5857720_keep_calm_and_breathe_deeply.png
Meanwhile inflation in Venezuela hits 1,369%:
“Crisis-stricken Venezuela’s inflation rate reached quadruple digits for the first time, according to figures released by the opposition-led Congress, which show consumer prices rising by 1,369 percent between January and November… The central bank reported inflation of 180 percent and 240 percent in 2015 and 2016, which had been the highest on record. It has since then stopped providing figures.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-economy-inflation/venezuela-inflation-reaches-quadruple-digits-hitting-1369-percent-idUSKBN1E12UP
Venezuela was talking about a new bit coin. I am wondering how it is doing, relative to the inflation rate. Or probably, bit coin is not there yet. The patterns of the two show a similarity. The bit coin would supposedly be backed by the oil reserves (which are not worth much at today’s prices), among other things.
A read that a guy accidentally threw out his hard drive that had encryption codes on it worth 100 million in Bitcoin. Maybe someone can dig it up and cash in.
Bitcoin =
https://image.slidesharecdn.com/tvagilencr-140404075301-phpapp01/95/agile-panacea-or-placebo-2-638.jpg
Rat meals are apparently not impacted by inflation….
https://uprootedpalestinians.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/b05de-boiledrat.jpg
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Dc1cdXGcfqk/VMb-8gVREtI/AAAAAAAAAnc/bdnw76K1j7A/s1600/DSC06463.JPG
http://www.denznet.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/exotic-fried-rat.jpg
The KFR option (3) doesn’t look so bad…. even the roasted option (2) looks doable… with a squeeze of lemon and a sprinkle of salt?
Not sure about boiled — I imagine the texture would activate the vomit reflex … think about a trying to tear off a hunk of soft chewy skin and cartilage … then chew it and swallow it…. I can right now feel a hint of vomit backing up into my mouth….
Nah – cook ’em like squirrels!
https://honest-food.net/squirrel-stew-recipe-paprika/
Boil it all up so its just soup.
We need more of this — could be hugely entertaining
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-07/crackdown-comes-wall-street-morgan-stanley-fires-harold-ford-jr-over-alleged-sexual-
I must admit — Bitcoin has me mesmerized — and I don’t even own any.
Lots of lottery winners out there at the moment
Bitcoin Exchanges Are Buckling While the Price Surges Past 16,000
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-07/bitcoin-soars-through-14-000-mark-up-more-than-40-this-month
Meanwhile, https://www.wsj.com/articles/millions-may-be-missing-in-bitcoin-heist-1512625176
Hackers Steal $70 Million in Bitcoin
Theft prompts shutdown of NiceHash, which markets itself as the largest cryptomining marketplace
Unreal! Imagine If a bank lost $69million due to theft!
and your identity was stolen to take out several home mortgages and student loans…because lending standards have faded away due to public opinion. The public could come to believe that lending standards are discriminatory against “marginalized groups. ” This has a legal precedent. One of the reasons why the early 2000s housing bubble happened was because of lower lending standards. Lending standards were lowered in the 1990s, I believe, to make up for centuries of redlining.
It is all so reminiscent of https://www.zynga.com/games/farmville Where you pay real money to get fake animals and stuff…
Perhaps this is all the final stage of us merging with computers?
Smite… can you pop in here to advise….
I saw today that “ultra violet” is Pantone’s color of the year. Now we can decorate with ultra violet colored unicorns. Fits in with today’s realism.
Perhaps the colour of the year for 2018 will be Midnight Black
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/sswbuVhGKMk/maxresdefault.jpg
One market on…I think Do The Math blog said that a possible response to resource shortages could be virtual reality.
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist/
“we could all own virtual mansions and have our every need satisfied: all by stimulative neurological trickery. We would stil need nutrition, but the energy required to experience a high-energy lifestyle would be relatively minor. This is an example of enabling technology that obviates the need to engage in energy-intensive activities. Want to spend the weekend in Paris? You can do it without getting out of your chair…
Really? Who could refuse it? All your needs met and an extravagant lifestyle—what’s not to like? I hope I can live like that myself someday.”
Notice how abstract his concept of human needs are. He doesn’t say we need food a he says we need nutrition. He doesn’t realize that it takes additional energy to make liquid meals that don’t require chewing, vitamins pills, and other supplements.
There are some things that Tom Murphy doesn’t get right. Too many needs for a physicist to understand and really calculate a value for. I don’t think he talks about the need for cooked food (or pre-processed food), for example. This takes energy.
But wouldnt it require magnitudes less energy to physically live in a small urban apartment, eat microwaved food (and a multivitamin) and mentally live in a virtual reality.
Than living in suburbia, commuting to work, playing with toys like sailboats and going for vacations to the other side of the planet twice a year.
Virtual reality is a big resource and energy saver. The depopulation of the rural areas is inevitable, as they do not produce energy anymore, but require large energy inputs into practically unproductive areas, distant from the centers which distribute energy and resources transported on long distances.
This is where the robot AI thing comes into play …. the robots do all the work… including making and delivering super sized pizzas….
And virtual reality becomes the new reality — whatever it is that turns one’s crank… can happen…
Want to be a rock star – a tycoon – a great athlete… want to travel the world in a yacht… fish the world’s greatest rivers catching 50lb rainbow trout on every second cast?
Utopia approaches!
http://s3.amazonaws.com/digitaltrends-uploads-prod/2014/09/Samsung-Gear-VR-v1.jpg
Come and get your lies – read all about — a big fat lie this morning – come and get your lies!!!
General Electric Co. plans to cut 12,000 jobs in its power business as the company’s new leaders look to slash costs and stabilize the beleaguered manufacturer.
The reductions, accounting for about 18 percent of GE Power’s workforce, include both professional and production employees, the company said Thursday in a statement.
The world’s largest maker of gas turbines said the unit needs to become leaner as customers turn away from fossil fuel-based energy sources.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-07/ge-is-said-to-plan-12-000-job-cuts-as-new-ceo-revamps-power-unit
Green Groopies around the world are celebrating this fantastic LIE. We are headed for that brave new world of renewable energy!
Red Alert – the MSM full court press is on — the stuuuupid humans are being programmed — do NOT attempt to argue with them. They are very deep in the indoctrination process right now and if you do throw facts and logic at them they are sensitive and could react like vicious dogs snapping and tearing at you.
You cannot question renewables — you cannot question GGG WWWW…… indoctrinated animals…. are DANGEROUS animals
http://www.heyladypublications.com/uploads/1/5/5/4/15544774/8395438_orig.jpeg
Bitcoin over $20,000…This is beyond asinine now. We might be watching unraveling in real time now.
Everything is fake. Bitcoin is proving that. Senators are resigning too. Truly amazing times.
This is a concern.
As far as I know, only Al Franken is considering resigning.
Bitcoin is trend, like “stripper fitness” classes are among millennial (upper class, ) women.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-01/signs-market-top-pole-dancing-instructor-now-bitcoin-guru
EXCERPT:” Pole dancing instructor, Dee Heath, built a successful fitness business in western Sydney teaching “stripper fitness” classes that seem to be in vogue among millennial women.
But recently, Heath has discovered a new passion: Investing in digital currencies.
Heath has spent $5,800 on Bitcoin since July and has more than tripled her investment.
“Look, I love pole dancing but lately my passion has definitely been Bitcoin,” she told SBS News.”
LOL …passion… Bitcoin probably seems like an area to make money by doing a lot less work than being a pole dancing instructor, to her but she won’t say that.
USA Today talks about Senator Al Franken (D-Minn) and Representative Trent Franks (R-Ariz) actually resigning. One is from the Senate and the other is from the House of Representatives, so they don’t exactly offset.
Another who is being investigated is House Republican Blake Farenthold, from Texas.
On Tuesday, House Democrat John Conyers retired over sexual harassment claims.
You’re probably following this a lot more closely than I am.
The way that sexual harassment seems to be vaguely defined, there are very few confident men in a professional setting that has women in it that HAS NOT been guilty of “sexual harassment” at some point.
Get ready for some mass layoffs.
Over time, it seems like standards change. One survey I saw more or less implied that young people today have higher expectations of how men will act than women did 25 or 50 years ago. What would have passed as a friendly pat years ago is now considered disrespectful.
Pingback: Understanding the world's economy-energy conundrum as a video game - Ecologise
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/07/anheuser-busch-preorders-40-tesla-semis.html
Makers of Budweiser pre-ordered 40 Tesla Semi trucks.
“The move is part of Anheuser-Busch’s goal to reduce its operational carbon footprint by 30 percent by 2025”
Notice they did not buy them because they will save money. Undisclosed are the performance requirements that will have to be met by Tesla.
Also notice that they can buy carbon credits with this purchase, because the carbon footprint of the electrical energy they will consume is probably not costed properly.
Anheuser-Busch says the trucks will be fully electric and equipped with Tesla’s semi-autonomous pilot system.
Lies lies lies lies lies….
We are approaching peak madness…. the centrifuge is beginning to wobble…. brace brace brace… put on your hard hats…. tighten the seat belts….. (meanwhile the green groopies are taking off their seat belts… rejoicing …. finally!!! — dreams are coming true)
They’re drunk.
Never going to happen – because it cannot happen — but it is good PR for Bud….
Student Loan Debt Is Now As Big as the U.S. Junk Market
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-05/student-loans-raise-other-risks-as-debt-equals-u-s-junk-market
And with the new tax code the interest on those loans will not be deductible. Another cruel act the R’s have thrown to ‘The People’.
The message I get loud and clear is: “do not go to college, it isn’t worth the expense or time.”
I think the educational industrial complex has brainwashed the masses into thinking that wealth comes from education. In reality, preexisting wealth is what makes education possible. The amount of wealth can be increased by education, but history has made it very clear that wealth precedes education.
And in the global and local competition for limited resources… education has often given people an advantage in this competition …
Not so much any longer…. and not at all … shortly….
The people who benefit the most from education tend to be the offspring of parents who had been doing well to begin with. There is the odd rags-to-riches story but that involves someone who is an exceptional individual and although everyone knows someone who is an exceptional student—exceptional students are rare. The offspring of affluent parents, even if they are mediocre or just plain unemployable, will likely, never have to do low wage, low status jobs unless they are trying to prove they are “independent” from their parents’ money or connections.
The real entertainment starts… when the Ivy League types… start to get scared… and start popping Oxyconin.
We speak of negatives so often on FW…. there are in fact some positives coming down the pipeline as well…
http://www.fashionisingpictures.net/photoshoots/PreppyVsSporty.jpg
http://outfitideashq.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/preppy-7.jpg
Oh daddy… life has been so wonderful… what happened daddy…
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/7/7b/The_Road_bleak_scenery.jpg
I think the exception is autistic and other disabled children. They tend to do poorly in the job market, but there is a lot of variability. Having well-off parents to look out for them does help them, as well.
Global homicide rate rises for first time in more than a decade
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/07/global-homicide-rate-rises-first-time-decade-venezuela-jamaica
GE Plans 12,000 Job Cuts as New CEO Revamps Power Unit
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-07/ge-is-said-to-plan-12-000-job-cuts-as-new-ceo-revamps-power-unit
Wall Street Tells Frackers to Stop Counting Barrels, Start Making Profits
Dec. 7, 2017
“Twelve major shareholders in U.S. shale-oil-and-gas producers met this September in a Midtown Manhattan high-rise with a view of Times Square to discuss a common goal, getting those frackers to make money for a change.”
“In the past decade, the shale-fracking revolution has made the U.S. the world’s largest oil-and-gas producer and reshaped markets. Yet shale has been a lousy bet for most investors. Since 2007, shares in an index of U.S. producers have fallen 31%, according to data provider FactSet, while the S&P 500 rose 80%. Energy companies in that time have spent $280 billion more than they generated from operations on shale investments, according to advisory firm Evercore ISI.”
“Investors are tired of getting burned,” Mr. Heltman says. “Many are telling companies that unless this becomes a more disciplined industry, they aren’t going to come back.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-streets-fracking-frenzy-runs-dry-as-profits-fail-to-materialize-1512577420
I think we keep seeing versions of this story.
And farmers are not making enough money either.
Coal producers are not making enough money; this is why China keeps closing coal mines. Uranium prices are low.
I think that this is what we expect as collapse nears. Revelation 18: 11-13 indicates that when ancient Babylon collapsed, the problem was a lack of demand and low prices. Merchants found no one to sell their cargos to; no one would even buy human slaves–an energy product.
I am wondering if this is what happens as we approach the point of net zero return on oil- everything just sort of grinds to a halt. Some of the indicators that I am seeing are-
*CBs are barely able to raise interest rates above zero. If we were really on a 3.3-4.0% growth path, the US economy would have enough demand for capital to pull those rates strongly upward toward normal ranges.
*the huge number of young people who are unable to get anything going with many living in parents basements etc. I know of young couples whose lifestyle and financial situation resembles that of the Joads of Grapes of Wrath.
*the opioid epidemic appears to be a cry for help from millions of mostly younger people who see poor opportunities ahead. Most may be understanding this instinctually that we are heading down economically.
*the world is not rebuilding those nations & cities who have experienced climate disasters. New Orleans is still half wiped out. Haiti waits in vain for international help to rebuild. If we were in the 1960s, these places would likely be rebuilt better than new.
*And of course, the low energy prices that can’t get much traction.
Lots of other signs.
I think you are right. We are seeing these signs of “low energy” problems all around us. Young people especially are having a hard time earning enough (two or three part-time jobs) to repay educational loans, plus take care of themselves. Certainly can’t have a family or buy a new home.
The Dow Jones average has not ground to a halt.
Duck and cover. Now.
Some financial commentators are diagnosing hyperinflation in the US. This based on a big recent uptick in US inflation numbers. My thinking is that any hyperinflation would be linked more to end-of-empire geopolitics rather than to an overheating economy. A situation to watch….
Stocks can be a reasonable place to be during high inflation periods because stocks represent ownership of real companies with real operations. Quality companies have power to raise prices to combat inflation losses in product pricing, factors of production, etc. So, the prices of quality stocks MAY rise to hold value in an inflationary environment.
Also, individual or organizational investors may seek out the stocks of strong companies for protection as they find themselves losing out on declining cash & bonds.
DOW 50,000?
Bitcoin is hyperinflating…..
The world’s largest oil trader Vitol says US oil production will peak in 2018
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-commodities-summit-vitol/u-s-oil-output-may-be-set-for-last-spike-in-2018-vitol-idUSKBN1CF1MZ?rpc=401&
https://imgur.com/a/3tZN7
Oahu Hawaii
Dec.6,1941 – another day in paradise.
Dec.7,1941 – bombs and bullets rain from the sky.
Most days are like yesterday.
All days are not like yesterday.
Remember Pearl Harbor.
Good point!
“Remember Pearl Harbor.”
… or Hiroshima *and* Nagasaki.
out here in paradise, we keep waiting for the bright flash and that awful rumbling sound of crumbling sky scrapers. nice view, if you remember to bring your dark sunglasses.
With our health, it is similar. Every day is like the previous one, until something changes. We are injured in a car accident. Or we trip and fall and break an arm or leg. Or we are diagnosed with cancer, or a heart attack. Or, in the case of women, we find out that we are pregnant. Health doesn’t look like it would change, but it does.
I’ve been reminded of this with recent passings and sudden health problems from people I know lately. Someone might seem completely healthy or today and may need a major operation tomorrow based on something unpredictable
Keep in mind … this is not total collapse …
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-06/what-life-million-people-puerto-rico-who-still-dont-have-power
…there is very little food, no fresh water, 97% are still without power, limited cell signals have stymied communications, and hospitals are struggling to keep people alive. There is no 911. Help is not on the way. If you have no cash, you can’t buy anything. As people get more desperate, violence increases. (source)
“My family has lost everything. My uncle with stage 4 cancer is in so much pain and stuck in the hospital. However, conditions in the island are far worse than we imagined and my greatest fear has been made reality. The chaos has begun. The mosquitos have multiplied like the plague. Dead livestock are all over the island including in whatever fresh water supplies they have.
My family has been robbed and have lost whatever little they had left. The gang members are robbing people at gunpoint and the island is in desperation. People are shooting each other at gas stations to get fuel.
They’re telling us to rescue them and get them out of the island because they are scared for their lives. We’re talking about 3.5 million people on an island, with no food, no drinking water, no electricity, homes are gone. Family if you have the means to get your people out, do it. This is just the first week. Imagine the days and weeks to come. These are bad people doing bad things to our most vulnerable.
Imagine a few weeks with no resources and the most vulnerable become desperate. What are you capable of doing if your children are sick and hungry? We have to help.”
The sounds of automatic weapons firing were audible Tuesday evening in San Juan. We were told the National Guard had arrived, but I hadn’t personally seen a Jeep or uniform in the streets yet.
Total darkness has swallowed Puerto Rico, as it has every night since the 12-hour monster Hurricane Maria roared across the island with more than 20 inches of rain and 155 mph winds. I’ve never experienced anything like it: wind and rain from every direction, pounding continuously.
Now, a war zone best describes what’s left of what was once an emerald green gem in the Caribbean…
…after Maria, we face hours upon hours of waiting in lines for gas that might not be there; hours waiting in bank and ATM lines for money that might not be there; hours waiting in grocery store lines for food that might not be there.
It’s dangerous to venture outside at night. An island-wide curfew was lifted last week, but without streetlights, stoplights or police, driving and walking are dangerous after dark.
Trash and debris from the storm remain a rampant problem. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reported it has removed more than 639,000 cubic yards of debris. But it is still tasked with removing at least 2.7 million remaining cubic yards.
still nothing compared to Yemen
At least PR has massive amounts of outside aid coming into the island.
In a few more decade of oil depletion, nobody will be coming to help.
PR in its current state — would be a very popular holiday destination — when BAU collapses.
What is the difference between the Christian and Muslim religions? The Christianity is the religion of the energy limits that cause the collapse of the human population.
The muslim religion is the religion of woman: the Kaba stone vagina and the moon cycle of the woman are the most evident symbols
“Kaaba cube mean in Arabic, but the Kaaba itself is the old “Kaabou” , the Greek word for ‘girl’ , and refers to the goddess Astarte , that is to say Aphrodite in Greek mythology is the Roman Venus and al-‘Uzza (العزى) Arabs considered the goddess of fertility.”
http://fishcalledsanda.blogspot.sk/2013/07/origins-of-islam-godess-allat.html
The key role of energy in populating the world by the humans is overlookeed by the majority of the religions. It was the destruction of the fetishism in the Judaism that allowed for seeing the reality as it is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YzAJIXwc49A
http://fishcalledsanda.blogspot.sk/2013/07/origins-of-islam-godess-allat.html:
“Allah ( the god- ) is the title of the moon god Sin-Hubal (Baal) patch late in Mesopotamia in the Arab pantheon, he dominated thereafter to Mecca.”
http://biblehub.com/2_kings/10-28.htm:
“Jehu Kills the Priests of Baal
…27They also broke down the sacred pillar of Baal and broke down the house of Baal, and made it a latrine to this day. 28Thus Jehu eradicated Baal out of Israel. 29”
The difference between the fetish and the reality is like the difference between the Moon and the Sun: the Moon is just the reflection of the Sun.
Good point!
Quite funny really: all circling the Cube, feeling privileged to enter it, and of course, rubbing that meteoric stone in the wall.
If it is a relic of fertliity rites, it’s Monty Python-level crazy
I always say that the Muslim suicidal attacks are the same as the Japanese Kamikaze: the end is here…
Posting this here because it caught my eye with the catch phrase “Business as Usual”
The paper, published on Wednesday in Nature, found that global temperatures could rise nearly 5 °C by the end of the century under the the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s steepest prediction for greenhouse-gas concentrations. That’s 15 percent hotter than the previous estimate. The odds that temperatures will increase more than 4 degrees by 2100 in this so-called “business as usual” scenario increased from 62 percent to 93 percent, according to the new analysis.
Darn it..don’t these Egghead’s know there won’t be an end of the century for humans…
Climate models are sophisticated software simulations that assess how the climate reacts to various influences. For this study, the scientists collected more than a decade’s worth of satellite observations concerning the amount of sunlight reflected back into space by things like clouds, snow, and ice; how much infrared radiation is escaping from Earth; and the net balance between the amount of energy entering and leaving the atmosphere. Then the researchers compared that “top-of-atmosphere” data with the results of earlier climate models to determine which ones most accurately predicted what the satellites actually observed
Man, talk about an alternate reality of being…must be nice to live as an Egghead
https://m.youtube.com/watch?t=31s&v=8BkTBJUcLTw
Notice how the dates are always left so far out in the future?
We can’t even tell what price Bitcoin will be tomorrow….
I wonder (well … I don’t wonder… I know) if maybe they keep pushing the date of catastrophic GGG wWWWWW further out — because if they were to put a closer date on it … and that date was reached … and nothing happened ….
That would lead to them being dismissed as clowns. Which of course they are.
China’s debt levels pose stability risk, says IMF
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/07/china-debt-levels-stability-risk-imf
The world is drowning in debt, warns Goldman Sachs
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11625406/The-world-is-drowning-in-debt-warns-Goldman-Sachs.html
‘WORSE THAN 2007’: Top Central Banker warns of looming wave of worldwide bankruptcies
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/12108569/World-faces-wave-of-epic-debt-defaults-fears-central-bank-veteran.html
USA may not attend 2018 Winter Olympics over fears of war with North Korea
http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/06/politics/nikki-haley-olympics-north-korea/index.html
Just a few hours ago, Bitcoin surged above $13,000 and now, on notable volume, it has reached the stunning $14,000 level… up 20% today…
For those keeping track, this is how long it has taken the cryptocurrency to cross the key psychological levels:
$0000 – $1000: 1789 days
$1000- $2000: 1271 days
$2000- $3000: 23 days
$3000- $4000: 62 days
$4000- $5000: 61 days
$5000- $6000: 8 days
$6000- $7000: 13 days
$7000- $8000: 14 days
$8000- $9000: 9 days
$9000-$10000: 2 days
$10000-$11000: 1 day
$11000-$12000: 6 days
$12,000-$13,000: 17 hours
$13,000-$14,000: 4 hours
I am thinking this is some sort of barometer of what is happening to the global economy…. spinning faster and faster … at some point it spins so fast that the centre cannot hold …
http://future-sync.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Bre-Bush-6-things-to-remember-when-it-feels-like-youre-life-is-spinning-out-of-control-1080×675.jpg
http://thefridacinema.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/MAD-poster.jpg
Maybe I still will be right about a downturn in 2017. At this rate, we will not make it until the end of the year.
Maybe the idea here is that people see that financial independence is as easy as buying Bitcoin…. if you have no money to buy then you get an interest only loan from the bank….
The more people resist the more Bitcoin is pushed higher — look at what you are missing out on!
Eventually everyone capitulates and buys Bitcoin and we all Live Large forever…. perpetual prosperity…. private jets for all…. blah blah blah….
Finally – we are now seeing Plan B. And it is looking good!
Insane. What used to take years of speculative mania to achieve now takes not days, but only hours!
Perhaps this is Al Bartlett’s ghost playing a little trick on us…. he’s demonstrating exponential growth using Bitcoin….
They must be using the energy equivalent of a small European country to mine this amount of crypto now. Quick, who can they bump off the modernity ladder to keep the scam going?
Still a lot less energy ( and lives) than is required to keep the petro-dollar alive in my guesstimation. This is the candy floss stand in the corner of the circus.
+++++++++++
Still, it’s the derivative exposure to BTC that might truly whack the system and take down a big trading house or two leading to a domino effect. GFC redux anyone?
Since Bitcoin exists … without any real purpose … other than it is supposedly going to make CBs obsolete… yuck yuck yuck…..
So I am assuming the CBs are involved in this…. are tolerating this ….
The question is … why?
The only thing I can thing of is that it has been thrown out there as a distraction for the masses.
Bread and circuses…
Bit Coin seems to act like debt; it acts like a promise for future goods and services (to the extent it can actually be traded). In that way, it is helpful, especially in countries that cannot count on their own currency.
It is a way that the economy can generate more debt. The debt, in a sense, is backed by the energy used to generate the bit coin. Of course, at some point it becomes not feasible to make more bit coin, given their high energy cost.
Relatively insignificant at 250 B cap….
I believe they’re going to try and take it out by shorting it on the futures market, which is set to start trading in BTC in just a few days. The volumes are relatively thin and heavily on the long side. Imagine the windfall profits that might be had from such a play?
That would be entertaining!
And without a doubt … if the CBs want this gone …. they have some very clever people who would invent a way to end it….
Just as they invent ways to get rid of leaders in countries that do not kiss the ring.
All it would take is the pitter patter of a few nervous feet… to take this down
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-08/the-bitcoin-whales-1-000-people-who-own-40-percent-of-the-market
Great idea. Krypocurrencies as collateral for even more debt.
Unlike housing that can’t rise much more than building cost there is no real limit for kryptocurrencies.
Intrinsic value of a bitcoin is less than $.01 and still it is traded for $20k, why not $1M?
When the last tree is cut down and the last fish is caught man will realize he can’t eat Bitcoin.
Or fiat currency.
As Midas realised that it wasn’t so great an idea to turn the whole world into gold. He owned it, but…… 🙂
+++++++++++++++++++++
At some point, the bubble has to burst, though.
Futures trading in BTC commences in a few days, so institutional traders will be able to short the thing. I feel this is a massive pump and dump to clean up the foolish, as they are all on the long side of the market. If it pans out like I think, it will be a bloodbath.
I can believe a bloodbath. So many other things going wrong that derivatives related to other currencies may be affected as well.
interesting article series on Bitcoin over on theautomaticearth.com Looks like the author there is in support of Bitcoin. I know Nicole wrote an article not too long ago in the support of physical cash. Oh well. At least ponziworld is sticking to a consistent story: this is bullshit.
Isnt Raul always a bit inconsistent?
I think so too. I was also a bit surprised when Nicole suggested not buying land & property. The deflationary crash was imminent. Jason Heppenstall has a different opinion over on 22billionenergyslaves.com
Nicole is always to be taken with a pinch of salt in so far as she recommends a specific course of action.
She can’t even get her own act together, always running from one place to another.
Jason is far more practical and sensible.
I saw an interview with Nicole some years ago – she was insisting her daughter learn to bang a drum of something like that — because it would be a valuable skill in Koombaya…
I was thinking … better to learn how to fire an automatic weapon…. and how to clean it…. maybe learn some ambush tactics….
She should change the name of her site to Automatic Weapon
I keep telling people to consider a career as a warlord. Join my army. I promise to take care of the local spent fuel rods with my slave labor bucket brigade.
Being near the center of power is no doubt a good idea. Warlords have existed since Old Testament days. Other than the detail of spent fuel rods, not a bad idea.
Great new article out by Steve!
Steve Ludlum of Economic Undertow?
https://www.economic-undertow.com
Excerpts:
Since 2009, Americans have been privileged to participate’ in one of the great Wall Street bull runs in history. . . Governments’ number one job was to make necessary resources available to business cartels at the lowest possible cost.
Today, the government purposefully aims to make itself irrelevant, to shrink itself until it can be drowned in a bathtub, to give free rein to gamblers without heed, to do so for obsolete ideological reasons. How can this end well?
The cryptocurrencies are Ponzi schemes, . . .
Q: How would you describe the economy?
A: It is a system that allows a select few to borrow immense fortunes. The rest of us; you, me, everyone else, repay the debts.
Bitcoin is rising because of the Chinese…and previously the Japanese. In the Japanese case their CB has made the Yen worthless to own so what do you do with your money? The easiest thing is BC. For the Chinese, it has become a way to get wealth out of China through BC outfits in HongKong. The value of BC is supposed to be electronic work. I think it is actually now based on advantage. Whoever has the cheapest electricity and the fastest computers can mine new BC.
Think about an exponential function where BC keeps rising, therefore more and more of electricity is used to power ever more larger number of ever powerful computers to mine it. With an increasing exponential function of resources devoted to mining BC, soon a significant part of the planets resources are consumed for this purpose. Imagine if BC goes to $1M….or $100M. Our planetary power system will collapse under the mining efforts. Soon, all computer production is devoted to BC mining. Eventually…thangs break.
Forget bitcoin – it was so last night! Im all in with criptokitties.
https://www.cryptokitties.co
I have my next new year’s prediction…
though it’s a long shot, so really it falls outside of my recommendation that new year’s predictions should be largely based on repeating the situation of the previous year…
so it’s more of a wild guess.
I think that in 2018 there will be a missile attack from North Korea that will possibly start WW3 and will certainly lead to the loss of millions of lives.
what I’m sure of is that this missile attack will go off course and will surely hit an unintended target…
my best guess is it will hit New Zealand.
no need to panic, though, as the nuclear weapon will not take out very many lives.
but, I see the attack taking down the entire power infrastructure of NZ, and soon after that, there will be a pandemic of cholera.
that’s fairly certain.
the cholera will take out at least 99% of the population of NZ, and only the strongest, wisest, and Fastest of New Zealanders will survive.
sorry, folks, but this is almost a sure thing for 2018.
ps: 25 days until 2018 but for now…
BAU tonight, baby!
Re Breeding…. this is what happens when you take the strongest male slave and hook him up with the strongest female slave….
Keep in mind this guy was a third rate college football player before this…. guys that run as fast as him but are close to 100kg … are a dime a dozen in the NFL…..
You sound like this guy, classic
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WzB7IsmOegE
Yes I have quoted him earlier. He is right. I have no idea why he was fired.
If I was a black American I would consider this a badge of honour
Maybe they know when the cheap oil runs out, its back picking crops in the field, among other unpleasant things…
While forced labor is rife among Britain’s building sites, nail bars, factories and farms, car wash slavery is rocketing with unregulated sites sprouting up rapidly nationwide, according to the country’s anti-slavery agency and chief.
Police are ramping up investigations but say the crime is tough to crack with 20,000 car washes believed to be flouting laws, most victims too scared to speak out, and the increasingly cash-squeezed British public hunting for ever cheaper services.
“This is modern slavery on an industrial scale,” said Lysbeth Ford of the Gangmasters and Labour Abuse Authority (GLAA), Britain’s anti-slavery body. “The government and the police are not yet aware of the extent of car wash slavery”.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-slavery-carwash/modern-slavery-seeps-through-murky-world-of-britains-car-washes-idUSKBN1D80XI
And this is in BRITIAN!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=z7LT56dYrr4
Glad I won’t be around for all those retro ways
Nigel Walker was a Welsh hurdler turned rugby player – pretty nifty, too:
Won the gladiators also. But I think it is rare football and rugby players are potential world track athletes, to “multidimensional” sports.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaldo_Nehemiah
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/olympics/2016/08/19/before-football-careers-many-nfl-stars-excelled-at-track/88986110/
https://www.flotrack.org/articles/5024592-track-and-the-nfl-whos-the-fastest-ever
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bo_Jackson
There are loads of NFL stars who ran high level track…. no doubt they opted for the NFL because the NFL is far more lucrative….
Does anyone remember the name of the silver medal winner in the 100m at the Olympics? If you don’t take the top spot you don’t make much money ….
If you are the main man…. you do well…..
Usain Bolt. As Bolt’s fame soared, his paycheck took off as well. Bolt earned an estimated $20.3 million over the last 12-months from prize money, bonuses, appearance fees and sponsors.
Plenty of NFL players make more than that….on salary alone….
Did I mention that everyone is using PEDS? http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/12/27/al-jazeera-investigates-secret-world-of-sports-doping.html
It is easy forgetting as a non-american that what you see in the olympics are the leftovers of professional sport.
Guys who can run ok but can’t catch a ball.
Yep…. Olympic athletes make chump change compared to this:
Highest Paid NBA:
2017–2018
Player [7] Salary Team
Stephen Curry $34,682,550 Golden State Warriors
LeBron James $33,285,709 Cleveland Cavaliers
Paul Millsap $31,269,231 Denver Nuggets
Gordon Hayward $29,727,900 Boston Celtics
Blake Griffin $29,512,900 Los Angeles Clippers
Kyle Lowry $28,703,704 Toronto Raptors
Russell Westbrook $28,530,608 Oklahoma City Thunder
Mike Conley, Jr. $28,530,608 Memphis Grizzlies
James Harden $28,299,399 Houston Rockets
DeMar DeRozan $27,739,975 Toronto Raptors
Highest played NFL http://www.businessinsider.com/highest-paid-nfl-players-2017-2/?r=AU&IR=T/#25-champ-bailey-cb-1028-million-1
The 20 highest-paid players in the NHL http://www.businessinsider.com/nhl-highest-paid-players-2015-10/?r=AU&IR=T
Those who cannot make it in the elite sports…. go to the Olympics…. in America
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/12/chinas-super-low-cost-heat-only-nuclear-plants.html#more-140013
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/12/thorcon-floating-supertanker-molten-salt-reactors-starting-with-2021-prototype.html
Nuclear to China and Indonesia.
The thorcon article is rambling, confusing. Why put it on a ship?
Why is is a dead ringer and cheaper than coal. If so, why isn’t Germany ALL IN?
The one bright spot is an engineer out of Texas Instruments. That says technical critical thinking will be applied.
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/12/game-changing-nuclear-molten-salt-reactor-will-be-cheaper-than-natural-gas.html
Nukes cheaper than natural gas.
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/12/china-spending-us3-3-billion-on-molten-salt-nuclear-reactors-for-faster-aircraft-carriers-and-in-flying-drones.html
Molten salt reactors in China.
Next big future… stopped reading there
My impression is that China has been using a lot of district heat as well, generally from what we would call “combined heat and power” based on coal. The nuclear home heating is to replace the “heat” portion.
The disadvantage of district heating is that homeowners have little control over the heat their homes get. There is a beginning heat day and an ending heat day. If you want heat outside of the days it is provided, it is too bad.
Used to be the same in England, in schools, etc. Heating on in October, and off in April (or maybe May).
In Beijing, heating is off March 15. (I came to Beijing a few days before March 15, 2015, so I know.) It is still quite cold on March 15, so people really have to bundle up.
In the classroom, however, I found that having the heat off was better than having the heat on. The Petroleum University jammed 80 students into a classroom that in the United States might have held 40, so the amount of body heat from the students was very high. There were windows along the long wall, where the sun shown in. There was no temperature adjustment for individual classrooms. The result was a classroom that was way too warm, in the middle of the day. But in an almost desert area, the temperature drop by nightfall was very large, so it was quite cold.
My (quite nice) apartment was not on this system. I had two electric heat pumps, each with its own temperature control, one in the bedroom and one in the living room of my apartment.
Russian space program close to collapse as latest failure exposes its fragility
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-space-programme-collapse-soyuz-2-1b-rocket-cosmodrome-launch-failure-latest-news-a8094856.html
With tight budgets, I am sure that corners get cut. This could be part of the problem, too.
Why are America’s farmers killing themselves in record numbers?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/dec/06/why-are-americas-farmers-killing-themselves-in-record-numbers
Quote: “Since 2013, net farm income for US farmers has declined 50%. Median farm income for 2017 is projected to be negative $1,325. And without parity in place (essentially a minimum price floor for farm products), most commodity prices remain below the cost of production.”
The suicide rate is very high compared to other professions. With income negative, I would expect the value of land to be headed downward as well.
The prices of all commodities, including food, tend to rise and fall together. Since 2013, food prices have been too low.
The Wall Street Journal has an article today titled, Low Food Prices Are Hurting Farm State Economies.
Doesn’t this sound familiar? This is the same thing that is happening in oil, natural gas, coal, uranium, and many metals. Couldn’t it be that the wages of the workers, together with rising debt, are not enough to keep demand rising fast enough? It is the same thing everywhere. If we could only cut back production, we could (maybe) fix the problem. Sounds like deflation in pretty much everything (with a small uptick in 2017).
Sounds too eerily similar to the low prices that caused ranchers to pour out their milk at the side of dirt roads because of prices too low in the Depression.
Sounds a lot like the days of Babylon, when it collapsed. Revelation 18: 11-13 indicates that when ancient Babylon collapsed, the problem was a lack of demand and low prices. Merchants found no one to sell their cargos to; no one would even buy human slaves (an energy product).
POWER! (absolute)
U.S. Lawmakers Seek to Criminally Outlaw Support for Boycott Campaign Against Israel
THE CRIMINALIZATION OF political speech and activism against Israel has become one of the gravest threats to free speech in the West. In France, activists have been arrested and prosecuted for wearing T-shirts advocating a boycott of Israel. The U.K. has enacted a series of measures designed to outlaw such activism. In the U.S., governors compete with one another over who can implement the most extreme regulations to bar businesses from participating in any boycotts aimed even at Israeli settlements, which the world regards as illegal. On U.S. campuses, punishment of pro-Palestinian students for expressing criticisms of Israel is so commonplace that the Center for Constitutional Rights refers to it as “the Palestine Exception” to free speech.
https://theintercept.com/2017/07/19/u-s-lawmakers-seek-to-criminally-outlaw-support-for-boycott-campaign-against-israel/
Free speech, like most other popularised/politicised ideas and concepts, is an amorphous blob comprising of actual reasoning, hypocrisy, confusion or just downright irrationality held together in a palpable shape by pragmatism and sophistry.
Wall Street’s Fracking Frenzy Runs Dry as Profits Fail to Materialize -WSJ
The shale-oil revolution produces lots of oil but not enough upside for investors
https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-streets-fracking-frenzy-runs-dry-as-profits-fail-to-materialize-1512577420
https://imgur.com/a/ra9Jn
It doesn’t look good.
So basically the plan is to change CEO compensation in order to drive greater profitability. And how is that achieved? Buying back stock apparently. Talk about long term thinking.
This year over 7k retail stores have closed which is an all time record. Restaurants and bars are having their worst years since 2009..Applebees,Ihop, and Outback had to close hundreds of locations. And movie sales are having their worst sales in over a decade. Car sales were positive by only 0.9 percent thanks to two hurricanes. The housing market is having its worst year since 2014..And the dollar is having it’s worst year since 2003.
yet bau is running as ever
“yet bau is running as ever” – Yes tell that to the new millions of unemployed workers since 2008. The show goes on for fewer and fewer people every year. At some point too many people drop out of the economy and it will collapse.
but till it happen the show must go on
Right! We have a lot of young people working two or three part time jobs. None pay very well, but in total is possible to get by.
In Australia they talk about all the jobs being created they fail to mention that most are just casuals in the service and hospitality industries.Most pay subsistence wages.
Symptoms of a very sick BAU…. she’s riddled with just about every disease known to horse….
BUT… the CBs are beating her with whips…. shocking her with cattle prods…. injecting her with adrenaline, coke, speed, meth…. shooting Red Bull directly into her veins….
In spite of her grave illnesses….. she is running faster than she ever has… the centre is holding!!!!
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-86x-utqrEHU/T97di3rMdqI/AAAAAAAAAio/w5fE6BDx5YI/s1600/31.jpg
Come on BAU — don’t quit!
My nightmare….
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/k_PRywoGds4/maxresdefault.jpg
Actually … the end of BAU isn’t going to be any more traumatic than say being caught up in a war… or a mass famine…. millions upon millions have in such situations…
The big deal is that we have all lived completely inside a comfy bubble — we’ve only seen such crises on the tee vee…..
These things do not happen to we who live in civilized nations.
Aren’t we whiny little buggers!
I don’t wanna starve! I don’t want to my head bashed in! I don’t want to die from some heinous disease! I deserve to live – to be comfortable — it is my god-given right!
Big deal… so we die. Anyone who wants to avoid the traumatic part…. need only find a tall building.
“Big deal… so we die. Anyone who wants to avoid the traumatic part…. need only find a tall building.”
Or a fast car, a rock wall, and that last litre of petrol. Right FE?
When it comes to that Ed hopefully there is the blue pill option.
“Brexit could have as big an impact on the British economy as the 2008 credit crunch, David Davis warned today.
“The Brexit Secretary said quitting the Brussels club will amount to a ‘paradigm change’ comparable with the biggest financial slump since the Depression of the 1930s.
“He made the extraordinary comment as he was called before the Brexit select committee where he admitted no Brexit impact assessments have been carried out by Whitehall.
“He said an assessment of the potential impact of Brexit on different sectors of the UK economy would not necessarily be ‘informative’ as economic models ‘have all proven wrong’ in the past.
“…The shock admission comes in a crunch week for Brexit as Theresa May faces a frantic scramble to rescue her attempt to get the talks to move on to trade by the New Year…”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5151193/David-Davis-says-Brexit-impact-like-2008-crash.html
The world economy does not need a major economy to crash. Everything is tightly connected.
Don’t Expect Aggressive U.S. Shale Drilling
The changes underway in the shale industry highlight how much influence Wall Street has over the shale business. If the profits aren’t there, the growth no longer will be.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Dont-Expect-Aggressive-US-Shale-Drilling.html
Schlumberger seems to come to a similar conclusion. This is a slide from a recent presentation.
The next slide says:
Light Tight Oil Revolutionized Supply – But Limits Emerge
–Forecast rates of production growth slowing in the medium term
–Pursuit of growth now balanced by stronger focus on financial performance
–Investment in light tight oil has reached one-fifth of world E&P investment
–Well spacing and completion volumes may be reaching technology limit
Thanks for sharing that Gail..I uploaded it online…
https://www.scribd.com/document/366501275/Schorn-Cowen-12042017-Slidesonly
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-06/declaration-war-trump-jerusalem-decision-sparks-outrage-warning-fire-no-end-sight#comments
If there is a large scale conflict in ME, it is not good at all. People think that it is just the ME that is in trouble but the fact that if oil is disrupted, that will cause dislocation in the supply chain and financial services which ultimately will be an ELE (extinction level event).
Why stir the hornets nest?
Trump is probably being led to believe that we are energy independent.
Compared to the EU and Japan, the US is doing fairly well in supplying its energy needs. It does need to import oil, which is the most expensive of its energy needs.
Print and buy.
I was at a sports bar and they had CNN on.And they said the US is now a net exporter of oil.I moved to another tv. Fake news
None of these stations or news media really understand the story. It is sad. Perhaps that is how the self-organized system works. To get ahead, a person has to have a way of telling a happy story.
The MSM is not about understanding or explaining issues….
It is about passing along what the el ders and want the masses to believe.
And the el ders want us to believe that there is plenty of oil … that we are not in danger….
Happy Happy Cows!
https://ak8.picdn.net/shutterstock/videos/19039498/thumb/1.jpg
I don’t know who is informing these politicians, but I noticed during the prez debates H. Clinton also thought the US was energy independent because of fracking. What was weird was no one debated that point and none of the people at the town hall type debate questioned that fact. I would expect if someone were to do a poll, most Americans would think the US is energy independent. Ignorance is bliss as they say.
Obama said back in 2012 we have a hundred years worth of natural gas now…So that means we still have 95 left….
We might have 95 years of gas, if oil were at $300 per barrel, and gas were at 1/6 or that, or $50 per Mcf. The fact that prices are not high enough for either oil or gas drillers substantially cuts back on the amount of oil and gas available.
But some are still drilling which is irrational, but there is this story that prices will go up any time now… That’s a very important story for MSM. Btw, if you want BAU to continue we should support these stories and shut down OFW. Clearly what we’re doing here isn’t causing people to go all out on their credit cards in their X-mas shopping. That’s what’s needed…….
If the Fed gives you free money and says – use this to drill — and there will be more to come…. you drill…
They know that the US is not energy independent. It is pretty obvious.
The eld ers want everyone to believe that there is plenty of oil available — and everyone from the MSM to the politicians has received the same play book
If we had a parliamentary system like every other advanced country this government would have fallen and we’d be having a new election. Instead, our wonderful system is allowing his rabid minority to enact an extremist agenda while the majority has to watch helplessly, waiting for the next scheduled election.
( this could be a bug or a feature, depending on strategy and ideology)
-Just saying it might be time to change this failing late enlightenment experiment.
Minority? I thought he got 49% of the votes.
Sweden is ruled by 38%. (But in reality mostly ruled by EU, can’t day how they got elected.)
“Sweden is ruled by 38%.”
Not really, it is ruled by a coalition of parties (the Greens in this case and Swedish Social Democratic Party ).
Do you understand how a parliamentary system works?
DJ is right. I have to go home and check out the situation for myself here soon. The immigration situation is very interesting now. How can one country take so many? Turns out there are limits.
Do you seriously believe the politicians make the big decisions?
Can you point me to the vote that was taken on the decision to spend trillions of dollars to keep BAU alive?
Wildfires are a consistent danger for Californians, and insurers have paid out $3.3 billion (€2.8 billion) in claims so far this year. The threat decreases as winter approaches, but blazes erupt when drought combines with the Santa Anas — winds that carry dry air from the deserts to the coast and in 2016 helped contribute to the threat of “firenadoes.” Hardly any measurable rain has fallen in the region in the past six months.
“It’s been a five, six-year drought so the fuel is just tinder dry and just as ripe as can be for fire spread,” Chief Lorenzen said on Tuesday.
fficials reported at least one death in a car accident as blazes burned on Tuesday across 200 square kilometers (80 square miles) in counties abutting Los Angeles. Like fires that killed 44 people and destroyed 8,900 structures in Napa and Sonoma counties in October, the current blazes have broken out in areas more suburban than rural.
Fanned by winds that have topped 100 kilometers per hour (60 miles per hour), grounding aircraft and complicating the efforts of more than 1,000 firefighters, the Thomas Fire has grown wildly since beginning in Ventura County on Monday. “It was just exponential, huge growth because the winds, 50-mile-an-hour (80 kph) out of the east, were just pushing it and growing it very, very large, very quickly,” said Mark Lorenzen, the county’s fire chief.
A smaller fire has burned on the northern edge of Los Angeles, threatening the Sylmar and Lakeview Terrace neighborhoods and billowing smoke that has created a breathing hazard for millions. Officials have yet to release immediate damage estimates, though residents evacuated about 2,500 homes
No problem, disaster relief on the way…..hmmm,
https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/7i0eav/the_morning_commute_in_los_angeles_this_morning/
But think about how much rebuilding can be done, and how this will help GDP!
Todays top story: Wildfires burn up half of California….
And let’s go to Abigail Hoffman for more on this wonderful story.
Yes Fast, these massive fires are fantastic news for the struggling US economy. Estimates indicate 400,000 homes have been burnt to the ground and many hundreds of thousands of vehicles have been destroyed.
Wow Abigail that is great news indeed! Let’s bring in our financial report Dirk Strong in New York to found out how Wall St is reacting.
Hello Fast — Wall St is LOVING THIS. Markets are up 4% already on this great news. Home builders, home retail and auto manufacturers are of course leading the way.
And now onto sports… and the NFL … where black athletes continue their domination ….
Sounds like an opportunity for
https://thumbs.dreamstime.com/b/silhouette-terrorists-plane-crash-concept-terrorism-evening-city-62689544.jpg
Save us super man!!!
http://nfornerds.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Christopher-Reeves-N-For-Nerds.jpg
Let’s call batman too!
https://www.bleedingcool.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/BatSignal-600×455.jpg
what the hell France army doing in Mali
is there any resources in Mali
but if you ask french army general do they regret invaded Mali
they will say no
https://youtu.be/Q3Kvu6Kgp88
I tried to figure out what is going on in Mali. This probably reads like rambling. There seems to be a possibility of oil and gas, but at today’s prices, I would question whether it would be economic to extract them. (Perhaps at $100+ per barrel in 2011, they made sense.) Thus oil and gas resources are one of the reasons for the conflict. I think population problems, lack of water, and lack of resources in general are part of its problems as well.
According to Wikipedia:
So US arms in the wrong hands seems to be part of the problem.
Also, sparsely populated Northern Mali wanted independence or greater autonomy. France got involved because the government of Mali asked for foreign military help to re-take the North.
The possibility of oil in the North was likely the reason for the interest in ceding. http://www.oil-price.net/en/articles/mali-and-oil-untold-story.php
Apart from oil, all the North seems to be part of the Sahara Desert, and thus is of little value. The US Geological Services shows some oil and gas resources for Mali. https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3003/fs20163003.pdf
Like all African countries, Mali has a problem with growing population. Mali’s population was 4.7 million in 1950 (UN) and 17.9 million in 2017 (CIA). Somehow, all of those mouths need to be fed.
The US Central Intelligence Agency gives more information about Mali.
According to the CIA, Mali is a landlocked country, a little less than twice the size of Texas. Its terrain is mostly flat to rolling northern plains covered by sand; savanna in south, rugged hills in northeast. Land use is agricultural land: 34.1%
arable land 5.6%; permanent crops 0.1%; permanent pasture 28.4%
forest: 10.2%
other: 55.7% (2011 est.)
Natural resources include
gold, phosphates, kaolin, salt, limestone, uranium, gypsum, granite, hydropower
note: bauxite, iron ore, manganese, tin, and copper deposits are known but not exploited
Natural hazards:
hot, dust-laden harmattan haze common during dry seasons; recurring droughts; occasional Niger River flooding
Environment-current issues:
deforestation; soil erosion; desertification; inadequate supplies of potable water
Mali has a long history of seasonal migration and emigration driven by poverty, conflict, demographic pressure, unemployment, food insecurity, and droughts. Many Malians from rural areas migrate during the dry period to nearby villages and towns to do odd jobs or to adjoining countries to work in agriculture or mining. Pastoralists and nomads move seasonally to southern Mali or nearby coastal states. Others migrate long term to Mali’s urban areas, Cote d’Ivoire, other neighboring countries, and in smaller numbers to France, Mali’s former colonial ruler. Since the early 1990s, Mali’s role has grown as a transit country for regional migration flows and illegal migration to Europe. Human smugglers and traffickers exploit the same regional routes used for moving contraband drugs, arms, and cigarettes.
Among the 25 poorest countries in the world, landlocked Mali depends on gold mining and agricultural exports for revenue. The country’s fiscal status fluctuates with gold and agricultural commodity prices and the harvest; cotton and gold exports make up around 80% of export earnings. Mali remains dependent on foreign aid.
Trafficking in persons:
Mali is a source, transit, and destination country for men, women, and children subjected to forced labor and sex trafficking; internal trafficking is more prevalent than transnational trafficking, but foreign women and girls are forced into domestic servitude, agricultural labor, and support roles in gold mines, as well as subjected to sex trafficking; Malian boys are forced to work in agricultural settings, gold mines, the informal commercial sector and to beg within Mali and neighboring countries; Malians and other Africans who travel through Mali to Mauritania, Algeria, or Libya in hopes of reaching Europe are particularly at risk of becoming victims of human trafficking; men and boys, primarily of Songhai ethnicity, are subjected to debt bondage in the salt mines of Taoudenni in northern Mali; some members of Mali’s Tamachek community are subjected to hereditary slavery-related practices; Malian women and girls are victims of sex trafficking in Gabon, Libya, Lebanon, and Tunisia; the recruitment of child soldiers by armed groups in northern Mali decreased.
My comment: I suppose that if you don’t have other resources, you sell the labor of people. The birth rate is still 6 per woman, and the population growth rate is over 3%, among the highest in the world.
Mortgage fraud is not just limited to China
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-05/laurentian-bank-audit-finds-misrepresentations-in-mortgages
Canada in this example, I see.
It has become obvious to nearly everyone that we have reached this stage on the planet and in our democratic institutions. We see how the absolute dysfunction of the global information architecture — represented in the intersection of mainstream media outlets, social technology platforms and giant digital aggregators — is generating widespread apathy, despair, insanity and madness at a scale that is terrifying.
While progressives fight government, the corporations and the super-rich we drown in despair. While philanthropists, fueled by their own certainty and wealth, fight for justice or equality or for some poor hamlet in Africa we become apathetic and distracted from the real source of the problem. And while the president fights everyone and everyone fights the president, the collective goes mad.
In the background, however, the game of hoarding resources and not redistributing them accelerates; absorbing the sum total of our collective actions and commitments into a singular unacceptable future. There is only one way to avoid this fate; uncover the source of the disease and cure it by mobilizing solutions.
https://www.counterpunch.org/2017/12/01/the-collapse-of-media-and-what-you-can-do-about-it/
NAFEEZ AHMED… is going insane… because he does not understand or refuses to accept that there are no solutions to mobilize…
Ugo Bardi is also going insane … so is Richard Heinberg… Kunstler has a touch of insanity coursing through him as evidenced by his Made By Hand solution… Steve St Angelo is also certified insane believing that owning PM is a solution …
The kitchen … she’s hot!
http://rca.asn.au/magazine/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/kitchen-fire.jpg
Isn’t this article a thinly veiled plea for funds for Nafeez Ahamed’s own organization?
The last paragraph, and the about statement are as follows:
There just isn’t much money in trying to foist unpalatable truths on the unsuspecting public. Nafeez was trying to get a movie off the ground a couple of years ago. Not sure what happened to that:
I don’t think getting involved with new currencies is going to help either.
Ahhhhh….. when I encounter Koombaya … I don’t usually make it to the end….
They are barking up the wrong tree. Accurate and informative reporting, and the truth, is perhaps the very last thing that most people want.
He might have better luck seeking funding to not publish negative articles.
Many members of the professional class have literally lost their minds since Brexit and Trump’s election.
“ehe does not understand or refuses to accept that there are no solutions t”He calls this apathy and sloth.
Other people have called it nihilism
These people believe it is better to do something even if it is not likely to work…it makes them feel better.
Contemplating the (civilized) world ending in your life time is depressing for most people.
Goals and having something to look forward to is an important part of mental health for most people.
I suppose people will turn to religion when things get really really bad.
When you say “I suppose people will turn to religion when things get really really bad.” I would rejoinder that I think the problem is that people don’t realize their problem is that they already have a religion – techno progressivism – and that the odd behavior you mention is the result of this religion failing.
I would agree. We have many religions.
Imagine that moment …. right at the very end … when the realization hits the green groopies that EVs and Solar and all that jazz did not save the day….
It would be like being hit with a sledge hammer in the head that unequivocally stated ‘god does not exist… or god is dead’
Or more likely they will stand their cursing our leaders because they did not do enough to shift us off of fossil fuels sooner
Something like this .. (only different)
‘Goals and having something to look forward to is an important part of mental health for most people.’
Very much so.
‘Knowing’ presents a problem because it destroys purpose … it exposes the reality that there really is no purpose and never was (other than to eat and procreate) …
I am forever making what might be considered poor decisions because to a large extent… I have lost interest in the future (and to some extent the present) — because there is no future….
I mentioned I sold a property recently … I could barely be bothered to negotiate — I just slapped an aggressive sale price on it to move it as fast as possible…. the buyer actually asked me ‘is there something wrong with this place that I should know about’….
Ya there is …. it is a spectacular hunk of land — but it is sitting in the middle of a village of people who — when the power goes off and the urea required to grow their rice is not available — will gut you and put you in a pot…. so I am cutting and running …. and I want to get this done before the end comes and I cannot piss the cash away… now let’s get this signed off asap so you can enjoy the view.
Good decision? Bad decision? What do I care. What does it matter.
Nothing matters.
Other than when.
It is now very rational to believe that £40 spent on a truly excellent vintage, or similar pleasure in the present, is better than putting the same sum towards a never-never pension.
Interesting
For your information; i once tried to share some of the contents of OFW at work. the prime goal was to ensure awareness that renewable energy is probably going to face a lot more headwinds. To avoid getting labelled as a doomer i looked up the JRC EU workshop that Gail presented on a while ago (titled “alternative energy narratives” or something like that) and use the more respectable EU workshop as a platform to launch the issue. Kind of like “see ? the regulators are thinking fairly critically about this, we need to anticipate this…”
The link to the presentations / video on the official website, didn’t work. When i contacted JRC to get a copy of the powerpoints they refused, citing some “post-event issue”. Gail presentation is online anyway but the presentations from the other presenters wasn’t. So i decided to contact them individually. Although i wasn’t expecting much response they politely provided the slides. Interestingly i had a brief telephone conversation with one of them. When i mentioned JRC refusal, the first reaction was something along the lines of “there was large discussion / row after the meeting” . Presumably referring to wether it should be publicly available or not ? Anyway the presenter checked and claimed to be able to see the video-stream of the presentation, whereas i couldn’t.
Interpret it how you like; my paranoid mind instantly thought; “Jeezes; not only are they blocking it, they’re smart enough to make the presenters think they aren’t…..”
So here’s my query for OFW people; i’m not sure if the link to the video recording is still there, but have any of you tried to access it when it was online (between march-june roughly ?). I
I tried to access it at the time, and it didn’t work for me. I only tried once though.
What the old tale didn’t say is that the little kid who pointed out that the emperor was in fact naked, got strangled. 🙂
Thanks for letting me know.
Hehehe; yeah for some reason i can’t help myself and always go after the shaky parts in any narrative. I’m not planning anymore to wake up anybody again on energy matters any time soon though 🙂
I checked. The video of the conference is available at this link. https://webcast.ec.europa.eu/inspirational-workshop-new-narratives-of-energy-and-sustainability#
There was at least one person who was unhappy that our presentations did not mesh well with the official story, but ultimately that did not affect having the presentations put up on line.
By the way, this isn’t my best “performance” for a variety of reasons–some of my slides did not render properly on their equipment; I found the setup strange (I couldn’t look at the audience at all); and confusion on how long I had for the talk.
My write-up of the talk is available at this OFW link: https://ourfiniteworld.com/2017/05/05/why-we-should-be-concerned-about-low-oil-prices/
Thanks for checking Gail.
The link you gave me worked; so i guess i can put the conspiracy theory to rest right here.
Its nice to know that i was indeed being too paranoid on this. Might have been company firewall blocking the videostreaming or something like that.
For shale oil to make up for the conventional oil supplies declining. It would have to ramp up at least 3-4 million barrels, every single year…Forever!
The Great Recession is having an unexpected impact on Christmas tree sales nearly a decade later
http://www.businessinsider.com/great-recession-affecting-christmas-tree-sales-2017-12
One way in which tires are used is as a fuel source for generating power, but this is very inefficient, not to say questionable in terms of emissions. Incineration occurs at higher temperatures than coal and produces 25% more energy, but since burning a ton of tires produces almost the same amount of carbon, it is hardly eco-friendly.
Blue Circle, Britain’s largest cement maker, uses scrap tyres as a replacement fuel at its plant at Westbury, Wiltshire. The company argues that this is a “win-win” situation for the environment: fewer fossil fuels are burned and the tyres are re-used instead of being deposited in landfill sites; and Blue Circle benefits, since the 4m tyres it plans to burn every year help save the company an estimated £6m a year.
https://recyclenation.com/2010/06/sea-rubber-truth-tire-recycling/
https://recyclenation.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/tyreMount.jpg
What should happen — will happen.
Elon Tusk must re-invent the wheel/tyre ….or do electric cars (heavier..?) have an exemption cos they’re emission free?
Aren’t Tesla tires made of bamboo?
KEVIN DRUM
FEB. 9, 2011 5:36 AM
The Guardian reports today on another WikiLeaks cable, this time about oil production in Saudi Arabia. Based on conversations with Sadad al-Husseini, a geologist and former head of exploration at Aramco, the Saudi state oil company, the U.S. consul general thinks the Saudis have been significantly overstating both the size of their reserves and their production capacity:
The cables, released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take seriously a warning from a senior Saudi government oil executive that the kingdom’s crude oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 300bn barrels — nearly 40%….According to the cables, which date between 2007-09, Husseini said Saudi Arabia might reach an output of 12m barrels a day in 10 years but before then — possibly as early as 2012 — global oil production would have hit its highest point. This crunch point is known as “peak oil”.
….The US consul then told Washington: “While al-Husseini fundamentally contradicts the Aramco company line, he is no doomsday theorist. His pedigree, experience and outlook demand that his predictions be thoughtfully considered.”….While fears of premature “peak oil” and Saudi production problems had been expressed before, no US official has come close to saying this in public.
This won’t come as a surprise to anyone who’s been following the oil industry over the past few years. Matthew Simmons’ Twilight in the Desert, which I reviewed six years ago, made a detailed case that Saudi Arabia’s production capacity had pretty much maxed out already, and Business Week published an article three years ago based on internal Saudi documents that said much the same: the Saudis could pump 12 million barrels a day in short spurts but only 10 million barrels on a steady basis — and that’s all there is. Production capacity just isn’t going up.
There’s always Iraq, of course, which certainly has more production capacity if it can develop it, but Saudi Arabia increasingly looks like it’s peaked already. And if that’s true, it probably means that the global peak in production, which was delayed a few years by the 2008 recession, is most likely not too far away. Our future is going to be increasingly oil free whether we like it or not.
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2011/02/wikileaks-saudi-oil-may-have-peaked-already/#
So where does KSA stand nearly 7 years later…. with oil priced at half of what it was in 2011…
a quasi-recycling is on my mind at the moment…
I’m thinking about new year’s predictions…
which some here have earnestly begun, apparently because there seems too little time left in 2017 for The Collapse, so attention has turned to 2018.
now, I’ll first refer to John Michael Greer who has consistently given good new year’s predictions over the years, and I think it’s because of one simple step:
predict the incoming year to be very similar to the outgoing year.
so here’s my general prediction: 2018 will be much more of the same slow process of resource depletion and debt building, with December 2018 looking pretty much the same as this month, at least in the core bigger-faster-stronger countries.
other than by a Giant Black Swan (and they are by definition unpredictable), The Collapse will not appear in 2018.
Odds are that you will be correct…
My take is that it all hinges on the amount of oil that is made available to the global economy…. if we hit a bottleneck in production — then 2018 is an RIP year for humans.
It is impossible to even guess at how close we are to the ultimate peak… a lot of things are in flux… what is the status of KSA and other major producers? How close is shale to an overall decline?
We have various institutions calling for calamity in 2018 — some 2020….
But they would not have access to the complete data set — that info is ultra top secret — nobody other than those tasked with keeping BAU alive would get to have a look at that…
We get hints… but never the full picture https://www.cnbc.com/id/41492809
There’s always Iraq, of course, which certainly has more production capacity if it can develop it, but Saudi Arabia increasingly looks like it’s peaked already. And if that’s true, it probably means that the global peak in production, which was delayed a few years by the 2008 recession, is most likely not too far away. Our future is going to be increasingly oil free whether we like it or not.
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2011/02/wikileaks-saudi-oil-may-have-peaked-already/
https://imgur.com/a/mmHLG
If only there was a scientist who could have predicted when conventional oil would peak?
Saudi Arabia may be out of oil to export by 2030 – Citibank
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/9523903/Saudis-may-run-out-of-oil-to-export-by-2030.html
you can be certain about that
and the crash will come well before then, because it wont be an sudden shutoff, but a downward spiral to the point where saudis realise that cliff they’re going to fall off is just ahead
then the panic and fighting will start, and shut off the oil well before 2030, because various factions will be in a state of blame-denial, and killing each other to prove it.
that will involve iraq and iran, so the entire oil production system of that region will be wiped out within weeks
if saudi oil collapse wasn’t imminent, they wouldn’t be selling shares in aramco
‘then the panic and fighting will start’
Already started?
this is just thewarm up before the main bout
“We get hints… but never the full picture”
true…
which is another reason to approach predictions by thinking the next year will be similar to this year.
if we had all the secret info, perhaps that would alter the forecasting.
what do they know that we don’t?
I don’t get it FE. You keep saying MSM is full of sh it but then you keep linking to them as part of your argument. It tends to undermine your claims.
The MSM is 99% sh it…. with 1% being truthful… and useful….
The trick is working out which 1% is the useful part…
Fast Eddy has developer a 6th sense for this …. you can too — provided you recognize that the MSM does not exist to inform you of the truth – it exists to tell you what to think ….
Recycling is on my mind at the moment…
This morning I picked up a used tractor tire at the tire shop…. the guy said – take your pick – take as many as you want – free — it costs us 60 bucks to give them to the recycle people….
For a moment I was thinking… if you give me $80 bucks I will take two … and buy a couple of nice bottles of wine at the bottle shop…
But then … it was epiphany time — I was momentarily staggered by the sheer genius of an idea…. as I realized the idea had private jet written all over it….
What IF…. I cut a deal with this guy to take all the used tires — there must have been a couple of hundred sitting there… and he paid me 40 bucks each – saving 20…. and I agree to ‘dispose’ of them….
Then I pick up the tires … drive to a quiet place with a cliff overlooking the ocean …. then heave the f789ers over the cliff?
What IF… I set up a tire fueled electricity generator … and opened an aluminum smelter in my backyard… AND an EV plug in station …
Or What IF … I just piled up the tires during the day … and set fire to them when the sun went down— so nobody could see the smoke?
What IF I cut deals with all the tire vendors in NZ… or the world even… to dispose of their tires at a huge discount?
https://blog.privatefly.com/us/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Bombardier-Global-6000-PrivateFly1.jpg
Mafia, toxic waste and a deadly cover up in an Italian paradise: ‘They’ve poisoned our land and stolen our children’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/mafia-toxic-waste-and-a-deadly-cover-up-in-an-italian-paradise-t/
Tosti explained that the Mafia dumped huge quantities of contaminated industrial waste there, then obtained backdated permission for their actions.
These hazardous materials were left on prime agricultural land, next to a car dealership, with bingo halls and furniture stores nearby, and just a few hundreds yards from a town of 39,000 people.
A criminal investigation was launched 18 months ago, but local people do not expect convictions. This was far from an isolated incident.
There are thousands of similar dumps all over this once-paradisiacal slice of Italy: in canals and caves, in quarries and wells, under fields and hills, beneath roads and properties.
Role models!
you think that’s bad check out this video about the remnants of WW1
https://youtu.be/dL-BCrMVi58
And also Somalia:
“The ‘Ndrangheta, a criminal organization from Calabria (Italy) has been involved in radioactive waste dumping since the 1980s. Ships with toxic and radioactive waste were sunk off the Italian coast. In addition, vessels were allegedly sent to Somalia and other developing countries with toxic waste, including radioactive waste cargoes, which were either sunk with the ship or buried on land. The introduction of more rigorous environmental legislation in the 1980s made illegal waste dumping a lucrative business for organized crime groups in Italy.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toxic_waste_dumping_by_the_%27Ndrangheta
Or What IF … I just piled up the tires during the day … and set fire to them when the sun went down— so nobody could see the smoke?
Not very original idea. I read some years ago about a guy in a rural area not far away who accepted tires for a small fee and threw them on the back 40 until there were thousands. Then the tires caught fire (or were intentionally ignited) and burned out of control for weeks. Neighbors did not like it. Corrective legal action ensued for illegal dumping, open fire without permit, etc.
Why do they need to punish these businessmen? It stifles innovation
It’s ok to do this
https://saferenvironment.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/pollution.jpg
But NOT this!
http://tyrepyrolysisplants.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/wastetires.jpg
You gotta love BAU!
https://youtu.be/zMxgRGmmpsk
The best scheme I heard of in NZ was a guy who took everyones tyres for 20% less than they were currently being charged. He leased a very large warehouse and stacked them to the rafters.
When he left the country (he was only here on a work visa) he had amassed a few hundred thousand dollars and had even fallen behind the rent on the warehouse.
The tyres became the problem of the property owner.
Brilliant!!!!
How about this …. lease some cheap sh it land …. and a digger…. and bury the tires….
And if the authorities catch on and you get hauled into court — you simply argue that the world is about to end so what’s the big deal…. alternatively you put the blame on the tire manufacturers…. one could even argue that if $60 is being charged by the recycling companies that this = a huge amount of energy being expended — and that storing the tires under ground is a greener option — after a few hundred years they might even turn back into oil!!!
Winning!
Tire Inferno
An environmental disaster at a Virginia tire pile 30 years ago helped advance fire-monitoring methods and spark a recycling revolution
It was a fire to remember. On Oct. 31, 1983, residents of the farming community of Mountain Falls, Va., awoke to a mushroom cloud of black smoke expanding into an otherwise cloudless sky. The 300-foot-wide plume rose 4,500 feet from the floor of their valley nestled between autumn-colored ridges of the Appalachian Mountains. Some wondered whether it was an early Halloween prank gone wrong, or whether the Russians had dropped the bomb.
Estimates are that the Rhinehart tire-recycling operation had handled as many as 25 million tires in the decade leading up to the fire. The enterprise sold most of the tires for retreading and for ship docking bumpers, floor mats, shoe soles, and other uses. But some 7 million tires that were in too poor condition for resale had accumulated in a pile reaching 80 feet high and strewn across some 5 acres of wooded slopes on the Rhinehart farm. Paul had a plan for these tires—to melt them down to recover and sell crude oil and scrap metal. But the fire got to the tires first.
The Rhinehart tire fire ended up burning for nine months, in the process generating a plume of toxic smoke that spread across four states and a stream of thousands of gallons of crude oil from melting tires that was contained in the nick of time. The environmental disaster created by the tire fire took more than 20 years and nearly $12 million to clean up.
https://cen.acs.org/articles/91/i43/Tire-Inferno.html
This tax bill is an abomination, an act of brutal plunder. Its sponsors should be tarred and feathered and ridden out of town on a rail, if not hung from a lamp post.
-Dr Paul Craig Roberts
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2017/12/04/plunder-capitalism/
And that’s Reagan’s Asst. Secretary of the Treasury!
But really, the tax bill is essentially a partial admission of collapse. The promises made during the age of cornucopia are being retracted.
This Guy is such a good read…sounds like Ralph Nader
What we are witnessing in the US and indeed throughout the western world is the total failure of capitalism. Capitalism is now merely a looting machine. The financial sector no longer supplies capital for production. What the financial sector does is to turn discretionary consumer income into interest and fee payments to banks. Aggregate demand can only grow through debt expansion, and the consumers reach a point where they cannot expand their debt.
Capitalism, hiding behind “globalism,” which is misrepresented as a good thing when it is death itself, locates production where labor is cheapest, thus depriving First World labor of good wages and work opportunities and putting First World countries on the path to becoming Third World countries. Short-term profits and executive and board bonuses and stock options are maximized at the cost of the destruction of the domestic consumer market.
Plunder Capitalism also privatizes as much of the public sector,
BAU at any means…