Why we get bad diagnoses for the world’s energy-economy problems

The world economy seems to be seriously ill. The problem is not overly high oil prices, but that does not rule out energy as being a major underlying problem.

Two of the symptoms of the economy’s malaise are slow wage growth and increasing wage disparity. Tariffs are being used as solutions to these issues. Radical leaders are increasingly being elected. The Bank for International Settlements and the International Monetary Fund have raised concerns about the world’s aggregate debt levels. The IMF has even suggested that a second Great Depression might be ahead if major banks should fail in the manner that Lehman Brothers did in 2008.

Figure 1. Ratio of Core Debt Growth (non-financial debt including governmental debt) to GDP, based on data of the Bank of International Settlements.

If the economy were a human being, we would send it to a physician for a diagnosis regarding what is wrong. What really is needed is a physician who has a wide overview, and thus can understand the many symptoms. Hopefully, the physician can also provide a reasonable prognosis of what lies ahead.

Individual specialists studying the world’s economic and energy problems tend to look at these problems from narrow points of view. Some examples include:

  •  Curve fitting and cycle analysis using economic data by country since World War II, as is often performed by economists
  • Analysis of oil supply based on technically recoverable reserves or resources
  • Analysis of fresh water supply problems
  • Analysis of population problems, including rising population relative to arable land, and rising retiree population relative to working population
  • Analysis of ocean problems, including rising acidity and depleting fish stocks
  • Analysis of the expected impact of CO2 production from fossil fuels on climate
  • Analysis of rising debt levels

In fact, we are facing a combined problem, but most analysts/economists are looking at only their own piece of the problem. They assume that the other aspects have little or no influence on their particular result. What we really need is an analysis of the overall economic malady from a broader perspective.

In some ways, the situation is analogous to having no physician with a sufficient overview of where the world economy is headed. Instead, we have a number of specialists (perhaps analogous to a psychiatrist, a urologist, a podiatrist, and a dermatologist), none of whom really understands the underlying problem the patient is facing.

One point of confusion regarding whether today’s oil prices should be of concern is the fact that the maximum affordable oil price seems to decline over time. This happens because workers around the world increasingly cannot afford to buy the goods and services that the world economy produces. Inadequate wage growth within countries, growing globalization and rising interest rates all contribute to this growing affordability problem. To make matters confusing, this growing affordability problem corresponds to “falling demand” in the way economists frame the issues we are facing.

If we believe the technical analysis shown in Figure 2, the maximum affordable West Texas Intermediate oil price has declined from $147 per barrel in July 2008 to $76 per barrel recently. The current price is about $62 per barrel. The chart suggests that downward price resistance might be reached at $55 per barrel, assuming no major event occurs to change the current trend line. Any upward price bounce would appear to leave the price still much lower than oil producers need in order to reinvest sufficiently to allow future oil production to be maintained at current levels.

Figure 2. Down sloping diagonal line at the top of chart gives an estimate of the trend in maximum affordable West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices. The downward trend line starts in July 2008, when oil prices hit a maximum. This high point occurred when the US real estate debt bubble started unwinding. Later maximum points correspond to points when oil prices stopped rising and crude oil reservoirs started refilling. Chart prepared by Amit Noam Tal.

Thus, our concern about adequate future oil supplies should perhaps be focused on keeping oil prices high enough. It takes a growing debt bubble to keep oil demand high; perhaps our concern should be keeping this debt bubble high enough to allow extraction of commodities of all kinds, including oil. Figure 1 seems to show a recent downward trend in Debt to GDP ratios for the Eurozone, the United States and China. This may be part of today’s low price problem for commodities of all types.

Needless to say, climate analyses do not consider the severity of our energy problems, nor do they consider the extent to which there is a connection between energy supply and the ability of the economy to operate as usual. If the real issue is a near-term financial crash that will radically affect future fossil fuel consumption, the climate analysis will certainly miss this event.

The Real Nature of the Limits to Growth Problem

To truly understand the headwinds that the economy is facing, we should be looking at the combined effect of all of the limits that the individual specialists have been studying. We might also include other issues not listed. The 1972 book The Limits to Growth presents an early computer model of how at least some of the limits of a finite world might be expected to play out.

Figure 3. Base scenario from 1972 Limits to Growth, printed using today’s graphics by Charles Hall and John Day in “Revisiting Limits to Growth After Peak Oil” http://www.esf.edu/efb/hall/2009-05Hall0327.pdf

This early approach reflected an engineering view of the problem, considering expected diminishing returns with respect to resources of all types. Other considerations included likely resource needs based on prior economic and population growth trends and efficiency gains. The Base Scenario shown in the 1972 book (Figure 3) showed collapse taking place about now–in other words, in the early part of the 21st century.

In the time since the 1972 Limits to Growth analysis was prepared, there has been a major discovery relating the importance of energy to the economy. Ilya Prigogine tackled the problem of the physics of thermodynamically dynamic open systems, earning a Nobel Prize for his efforts in 1977. When energy flows are available, many structures, called dissipative structures, can grow and change over time. Examples include plants and animals, hurricanes, stars (they expand in size, then collapse at the end of their lives), ecosystems, and economies. These structures are utterly dependent on energy flows. The economy needs energy in almost the same way that humans need food. Without sufficient energy flows, the world economy will collapse.

It is because of the laws of physics and energy flows that markets are able to set price levels. Indirectly, physics sets the maximum affordable price for energy products based upon the total quantity of goods and services individual workers can afford. These maximum affordable prices may be invisible, but they are very real. Economists may talk about “demand” for energy products, but the real issue is affordability: “Will the laws of physics allow prices to stay high enough to provide the commodities the world economy needs?”

It is because of the laws of physics that debt can play a major role in the economy. Debt can provide time-shifting services if an economy does not have sufficient energy supplies to permit the equivalent of bartering of finished goods and services for new capital goods. Debt can allow future goods and services (manufactured with energy products) to serve as payment for capital goods and other goods purchased using debt. Thus, debt acts as a promise of future energy supplies. These future energy supplies may not, in fact, actually be available at prices that consumers can afford. This is why debt bubbles so often collapse and have a devastating impact on economies.

In theory, the new physics discoveries might also be added to the Limits to Growth model. If this were done, I would expect the downslopes in Figure 3 to be much steeper. Also, the date when the population decline starts would likely move forward, relative to other declines. The actual dates of the declines would of course be expected to change as well, because of updated knowledge regarding resources, population, and other factors.

Including the physics aspect of the economy would lead to many periods when sharp changes take place. When these sharp changes take place, there might be wars, collapsing governments, and epidemics, all causing large numbers of deaths. Debt bubbles might pop, causing deflation and widespread banking problems. These types of events are similar to those that economies have experienced in the past. There is no reason to expect that today’s world economy will have unusual lasting power.

Of course, modeling one piece of the economy at a time, as described at the beginning of this post, leaves out such troublesome implications. Economists tell us all we need to worry about is price fluctuations as the economy substitutes one product for another. If a person has blinders on, perhaps this a good description of the world we live in. Otherwise, the model leaves a lot to be desired.

Implication of the Laws of Physics Being in Charge of How the Economy Operates

Politicians would very much like us to believe that they are in charge. They would like us to believe that adding more technology can solve all of our problems. They would like us to believe that citizens can make a significant difference by voluntarily cutting back on their own energy consumption. They would also like us to believe that countries can cut back on their debt levels without the whole Ponzi Scheme unraveling.

Anyone who has watched bread rise in a bowl can see the implications of growth within a finite structure. It doesn’t take very long for the volume growth of bread dough to exceed the space available. Even if the bread maker pushes the dough back down again, the effect is only temporary. The bread dough quickly rises again to overfill the bowl it is in.

One possible implication of the 2008 financial (and oil price) crash is that we are very close to limits, right now. Regulators can try to fine tune how the economy operates by raising and lowering interest rates (sometimes using Quantitative Easing (QE) in the process), but they are, in some sense, playing with fire. Figure 4 shows the dramatic impact that popping the real estate debt bubble seems to have had in 2008. It also shows the impact that adding and removing QE has had.

Figure 4. Figure showing collapsing debt bubble at the time US oil prices peaked. Figure also shows the use of Quantitative Easing (QE) to stimulate the economy, and thus bring oil prices back up again. Ending US QE seems to have had the reverse effect.

By raising interest rates, regulators could easily send part, or all, of the world’s economy to a financial crash that is worse than 2008’s. Or the economy could again reach limits, by itself, with just a little economic growth. In some sense, the world economy is very close to filling the bread bowl, as it was before the 2008 crash pushed it back down.

The World Economy Is Reaching Limits in Many Areas Simultaneously

Many people believe that we are reaching limits in at most a few areas of the economy, such as “running out of oil.” The evidence suggests that because of the networked nature of the economy, we are really reaching limits in many places, simultaneously. The following represent some problem areas:

(1) Too Low a Return on Labor for Workers Whose Jobs Are Easily Exportable. With globalization, workers are indirectly competing with workers around the world regarding who can produce goods and services most cheaply. They are also competing with computers and robots that can easily replicate their functions. The net impact is a world where a large share of the citizens find themselves living at a level not much above the subsistence level. In more developed countries, young people may live with their parents longer and may delay having children almost indefinitely, because wages are not keeping up with living costs. Many studies have shown rising wage disparity. In some ways, the wage disparity now seems to be as bad as in the 1930s.

Figure 5. U. S. Income Shares of Top 1% and Top 0.1%, Wikipedia exhibit by Piketty and Saez.

(2) Interest Rates. Interest rates are the lever that economists like to adjust upward or downward to try to stimulate the economy or push the economy downward. Short term interest rates, up until about the end of 2015, were at the level they were at during the Depression of the 1930s.

Figure 6. Monthly average 3-month term treasury bill rates in chart prepared by FRED. Amounts shown through October 2018. Grey bars indicate recessions.

Raising interest rates is like adding a little more dough to the already over-full bread bowl. With these higher interest rates, borrowers need to pay more for monthly payments, making the strain on their finances even worse than it was previously. Figure 6 shows that raising interest rates very often creates a recession. In fact, the Great Recession of 2008-2009 seems to be the result of an increase in short term interest rates. This time we are being told that the increase will be gentle, but if the bread bowl is already overly full (in the sense that affordability of the output of the economy is already way too low, for many workers), what difference does “gentle” make?

(3) Return on Capital Investment/Added Debt. Falling long-term interest rates between 1981 and 2016 seem to be an indirect reflection of falling long-term return on capital investment. If capital returns had been higher, there would be more demand for debt, forcing interest rates up to levels closer to where they had been when the economy was growing more quickly.

Figure 7. Monthly average 10-year US Treasury interest rates in chart prepared by FRED. Amounts shown through October 2018. Grey bars indicate recessions.

Another way we can look at how productive the addition of debt has been is by comparing the debt increase each year with the GDP increase (including inflation) each year. We use current year GDP as the denominator in both calculations. Figure 8 shows the indications for what the Bank for International Settlements calls “Core Debt” (that is, Total Non-Financial Debt, Including Government Debt).

Figure 8. Dollar Increase in US Core Debt as % of GDP, shown beside GDP dollar increase, as percentage of ending GDP. Amounts based on FRED data.

Comparing the red and blue lines on Figure 8, GDP rose fairly reliably in the pre-1981 period, as the amount of core debt rose. The core debt increases tended to be higher than the GDP increases, but not a great deal higher. Thus, the US ratios on Figure 1 could be close to 1.0 in early years.

Once interest rates started falling after 1981 (see Figures 6 and 7), core debt growth and GDP growth greatly diverged. I expect that quite a bit of this change was related to asset price inflation as interest rates fell. With lower interest rates, assets of all types started becoming more affordable. Thus, a greater number of buyers could be expected, driving up prices of assets of all kinds, including homes, stores, and factories. Owners of these assets could “take the equity out” as prices rose and could use the equity to purchase other goods and services. In theory, these activities might somewhat stimulate the economy. Figure 8 suggests that the benefits of these activities with respect to the “goods and services” portion of the economy (red line) were slight at best, however.

Figure 9. Dollar Increase in US Financial Debt as % of GDP, shown beside GDP dollar increase % of ending GDP. Amounts based on FRED data.

Figure 9 shows Financial Debt amounts corresponding to the Core Debt amounts shown in Figure 8. At first glance, it appears that Financial Debt (blue line ) has provided no benefit whatsoever for the Goods and Services part of the economy (red line). But clearly the bankers who created these financial products benefitted from the income they received from them. So did the low-income home buyers who bought homes that they could not really afford in the early 2000s. Home building was stimulated, and inflation in home prices was stimulated. Banks benefitted by being able to transfer their problem home loans to unsuspecting buyers. Whether this whole arrangement had any net benefit to the economy, other than to create pseudo-solutions for people who could not really afford the homes they were purchasing, is doubtful. But when the economy is near limits, strange solutions to stimulating the economy are attempted.

(4) Commodity Prices. If we have a supply problem with one kind of commodity, we likely have a supply problem with many kinds of commodities at the same time. The reason why this happens is because the prices of many types of commodities tend to move together, in response to general market conditions. This is why the US government talks about inflation in oil and food prices as a separate category of Consumer Price Inflation.

If prices for commodities are generally low, as they have been since 2014, this means that commodity investors have received low rates of return for several years. With low rates of return, producers of many commodities have cut back on reinvestment. With inadequate reinvestment, supply crunches are likely to occur across a broad spectrum of commodities simultaneously. A recent Wall Street Journal article says, Supply Crunch Looms in Commodities Markets. The article mentions copper, zinc, aluminum and nickel. Other articles talk about oil in a similar fashion.

The question becomes, “Can consumers bid up the prices of all of these minerals sufficiently, to encourage enough reinvestment to solve the world’s commodity supply problem?” Food prices would likely need to be bid up as well, because oil is used heavily in the production and transport of food.

It was possible to bid up commodity prices in the 1970s, because the economies of the United States, Europe, Japan, and the Soviet Union were all growing rapidly. Also, women were joining the labor force in large numbers. It was possible to bid up commodity prices in the 2002 to 2008 era, because China and other Asian nations were rapidly ramping up their demand for goods and services of all kinds.

Figure 10. China energy production by fuel plus its total energy consumption, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018 data. The difference between the production figures shown and the black line consumption total is imports.

Now we are facing a much different situation. China is in much worse shape than most people recognize because its coal supply seems to have passed peak production. This has happened because the cheap-to-extract coal is mostly depleted, making it unprofitable to increase coal production without significantly higher prices. Imported coal and natural gas are expensive options. China also has a serious debt problem.

Because of China’s problems, the country will necessarily need to cut back on manufacturing, road building and home building in the years ahead. (This would happen, with or without Trump’s tariffs!) For some minerals, China currently represents over 50% of the world’s demand. China is the largest oil importer in the world. It is doubtful that China can make major cutbacks in its use of commodities without lowering prices for many commodities worldwide.

Persistence of Outdated Models

We are dealing with a situation where a large number of people suspect, at least vaguely, that the world economy is like bread dough about to outgrow its bowl, but this is not an issue anyone really wants to quantify. Everyone wants solutions; they don’t want a better delineation of the problem. Repeated publication of climate change forecasts is, in a sense, a denial of the possibility that we may be facing resource limits that are close at hand. Such publication is saying, in effect, that the closest limit that citizens need to worry about is the climate limit.

Also, the reliance of researchers on the past work by others in the same field tends to reinforce what are essentially incorrect models. Cross-pollination across fields is difficult, given the technical nature of today’s academic research. Furthermore, it becomes increasingly difficult to properly model a situation that is very complex and depends upon non-linear interactions.

Putting All of These Issues Together

The focuses of today’s narrow research can give a surprisingly distorted overview of where the economy is. A few areas in particular stand out:

(a) The choice of the word “Demand” instead of “Affordable Quantity” makes it sound like the buyer has more control over purchases than he really does. Growing demand seems to depend on continually increasing debt. This is the reason for the debt bubble problem.

(b) Framing the energy problem as “running out of oil” makes it sound like searching for substitutes will be a fruitful area for solution. Because of the affordability issue, this search is futile unless the substitutes are truly cheaper, when all costs are considered. Declining availability of many minerals because of persistently low commodity prices could be an issue as well.

(c) If limits are being reached in many areas simultaneously, incentives for countries to co-operate seem likely to go downhill quickly. Bullies who claim to be able to obtain a bigger share of the shrinking total supply will tend to be elected.

(d) The physics tie between energy and the economy makes major energy consumption cutbacks virtually impossible, without risking economic collapse.

(e) Adding technology isn’t really a solution to the debt problem, because it tends to make the affordability problem worse. The problem is that while adding technology seems to lead to more employment for a few elite workers, it tends to displace lower-wage workers at the same time. The spending of lower-wage workers is really needed if adequate demand for commodities is to be maintained. Additionally, the ownership of the technology-related capital goods tends to be concentrated among the elite; this further shifts wealth from the non-elite to the elite.

The long term prognosis for the world economy seems pretty grim, when all of these issues are put together. Defaulting debt and a resulting collapse in asset prices of all kinds is of particular concern. The default of subprime housing debt was an issue in the US at the time of the Great Recession; the next round of defaults is likely to start elsewhere. Debt defaults could start fairly soon, perhaps in the next 6 to 12 months. The more hostile political situation we have been seeing recently seems to be evidence that limits are close at hand.

 

 

 

 

 

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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2,136 Responses to Why we get bad diagnoses for the world’s energy-economy problems

  1. Yoshua says:

    Eurodollar “the market” took a hit in 2008 and hasn’t recovered since despite the Fed’s QE program, since the problem is the collateral that underpins the eurodollar.

    Eurodollar: but what is it?

    https://www.valuewalk.com/2016/12/eurodollar-market/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

  2. adonis says:

    the elders must have figured out a way to run the worlds financial system in a deflationary model they have probably been working on it for fifty years and what they came up with is beyond our level of comprehension

  3. adonis says:

    we are heading to a collapse in oil prices which will bankrupt the vast majority of investors and reduce oil reserves to a lot less than anticipated this collapse will allow the elders to bring in the planned currency reset which in turn will bring in their planned new world order which will save us all .How do I know this ? Ask yourselves why are the Fed tightening when the oil price is dropping the answer must be they want to collapse the oil price to cause a crisis .It is a classic hegellian dialect move , cause a problem ,wait for the reaction then come in with the solution.
    If I am right then the planned collapse is happening on the 29th of November

  4. Baby Doomer says:

    Debt, Not Trade War, Is China’s Biggest Problem

    Officially China’s debt is a small number: 47.60%. Unofficially, it’s hard to figure it out. For a good reason: the government is both the lender and the borrower. One branch of the government lends money to another branch of government.

    Government-owned banks, for instance, lend money to State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) and Town Village Enterprises (TVEs).

    But there are some unofficial estimates. Like one from the Institute of International Finance (IIF) last week, which place China’s debt to GDP at 300%!

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2018/11/24/debt-not-trade-war-is-chinas-biggest-problem/#2809abd54c4d

    300 percent! LMFAO!

    • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

      “Officially China’s debt is a small number: 47.60%. Unofficially, it’s hard to figure it out. For a good reason: the government is both the lender and the borrower.”

      then I still say their debt is closer to 0.00%…

      anybody see a problem here?

  5. Rodster says:

    Gail, what’s your educated opinion on what’s currently happening in France with the riots and disturbances related to Marcon raising petrol prices on the public? Do you think this will spread globally?

    • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:
      • Rodster says:

        Thanks for that article. The last sentence summed it up: “Macron insists the higher taxes are necessary to reduce France’s dependence on fossil fuels and to fund renewable energy sources, according to the AP.”
        —————————————————————————————————————————-
        So basically in a nutshell, people talk a big about going Green and using Alternative Energy but when push comes to shove they reject it because they want the cheapest option, which is always fossil fuels becuase that’s what cheaply made their way of life. Which then means that we will always continue on the same path until everything breaks down.

    • Most leaders have figured out that tax cuts are the “way to go,” not tax increases, especially on oil products. For that reason, I don’t think very many leaders will consider raising taxes on oil products. Thus, this particular problem will not spread globally.

      The question is, “What will leaders do about all of the pension promises that have been promised, but that governments cannot afford to pay?” They will get very bad riots, when they try to cut those benefits back. Some countries may resort to wars, rather than attempt to cut back major promises such as these.

  6. Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

    post Black Friday, if anyone is still shopping:

    there is a steep discount price for Bitcoin tonight:

    $3750

    but if you’re Xmas shopping…

    should be much lower by mid December…

    I will make a bold prediction that it will never get back to $19,000…

    those who bought then with a credit card are probably defaulting…

    • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

      $3695

      • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

        $3621

        this is getting too predictable…

        • if energy doesn’t underpin it, money can have no value

          • Governments can promise a whole lot more than they can deliver. The can promise pension plans and health insurance that they cannot deliver. Derivatives can look like they have value, but when a quick fluctuation in values occurs (which they are supposed to protect against), they may not actually behave as expected.

            I think that people can believe that money (and other promises) have value, when they really do not.

    • craig moodie says:

      I will also make a bold prediction, bitcoin will eventually go back to its real value. ZERO

    • zenny says:

      Any thing over a buck and I am in the pink.
      All kinds of prices are going down Just picked up a new 32 inch 4K TV for 70 bucks

      • Baby Doomer says:

        Now you can watch your favorite shows “Rosanne” and “Last man standing” with your brother/husband..

      • Slow Paul says:

        It’s a fire sale everywhere. Profit is no longer required to run a business, you just need investors and/or people buying your stock for one reason or another.

    • MG says:

      If mining Bitcoin requires more and more energy, then the process of creating Bitcoins becomes more and more uneconomical.

      This crash reminds of oil crash of 2008: there will be no higher price for Bitcoin like $19,000. Moreover, maintaining Bitcoins requires energy for computers. When you have paper banknotes or metal coins, you do not need electricity.

  7. Baby Doomer says:

    Syria state TV: 50 injured in rebel poison gas attack

    https://www.apnews.com/de485f81696f46bdaacb15f964147451

  8. adonis says:

    i think that the trajectory of oil prices is down based on the continued quantitative tightening by the Fed so therefore there will be oil shortages but will prices bounce back up i’m betting they will not because of peak demand having been reached so the demand will not be there to cause a sufficient rise in the oil price so all those people expecting high oil prices will instead see low oil prices

    • Hubbs says:

      What I am trying to figure out is how much of these price swings (between too high and unaffordable for consumers vs too low and unaffordable for producers) is based on inherent cycles vs how much is being driven by traders and futures markets?

      • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

        2008 above $140 then plunging to $30…

        that does not sound like “inherent cycles”…

        but this year could be?

      • Baby Doomer says:

        Here’s what happened …

        A] … Oil should be around $100 so oil companies can afford to invest in new oil production.

        B] … Without new investment there will be major oil shortages in just a couple more years.

        C] … Oil has been too low since 2014 mainly because of over production by US tight oil companies.

        D] … There has been $1 Trillion in under investment since 2014 , which means it is a very serious problem.

        E] … Everyone knew US tight oil is very expensive to drill . So Saudi Arabia and OPEC first reacted by trying to maintain market share and force US companies to cut production . Saudi Arabia even increased production trying to force US drillers to cut back.

        F] … It didn’t work for several reasons . There are thousands of US oil companies . American oil companies cannot collude under US antitrust laws . So even though they need lower prices , they each hoped other companies would cut back first . US companies have contracts with the landowners that require them to keep drilling and pumping or they lose their leases . Plus oil company CEOs earned million dollar bonuses that were tied to pumping more oil. So oil companies kept drilling and pumping . The companies lost billions of dollars . Hundreds of companies went bankrupt . But after going bankrupt they got out of debt and kept on drilling and pumping . Last year , even all the biggest US tight oil companies – and even the 2 main US tight oil industry associations – expected US oil production to level off last year , because they were all hurting financially. But instead US tight oil production increased another 1 million barrels.

        G] …Russia and OPEC countries were all really hurting economically because oil is their main source of income and a lot of countries incomes were cut by more than half . So finally in 2016 , Russia and OPEC agreed to cut production to try to increase oil prices . But they needed to be careful not to cut too much or it would cause a price shock that would cause a global recession . They were afraid to cut too much and they should have made at least one more cut to stabilize prices . It took more than a year , but finally oil prices started to rise to levels that would allow oil companies to afford to start investing again.

        H] …The price of oil was steadily rising for over a year . The price more than doubled from 2017 to October 2018 . Prices were finally close to where they needed to be . But this was near election time and Trump wanted much lower oil prices so he got down on his knees and started begging Saudi Arabia to pump more oil.

        . “The Price Rise”

        1] …For several months Trump said he was going to sanction Iran’s oil production. Trump threatened to sanction any country that violated the sanctions.

        2] …OPEC and Russia had wanted to make another cut , but instead they pumped a little more to make up for Iran’s oil cuts that they expected because of the sanctions.

        3] …On the day before sanctions on Iran took effect , at the last minute, Trump issued a bunch of waivers to China, India, and like 5 other countries to allow them to keep importing oil.

        4] …Suddenly there was too much oil on the market again. So the oil price took a $20 hit in a few days.

        5] …In the meantime Saudi Arabia murdered a journalist in a very cruel , gruesome , and disgusting way. So now they’re walking on eggshells and it doesn’t look like they’re going to be able to work with Russia any time soon to make more cuts to increase oil prices. It is winter, so Russian oil companies cannot make major cuts big enough to increase prices on their own because they need to be careful that their pipes don’t freeze.

        So now , again the oil price is way too low . Nobody is doing anything to fix it . And in just a few years there will be a major oil shortage so big that it will cause a global recession far worse than 2008 or the Great Depression of the 1930s . If nobody does anything soon, it will be an calamity unprecedented in all of human history. Food prices will skyrocket .Food production will decrease . And literally billions of people will starve or die from conflict..

        • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

          “And in just a few years there will be a major oil shortage so big that it will cause a global recession far worse than 2008 or the Great Depression of the 1930s.”

          or there will be a global recession first, likely next year, and that will drive worldwide demand far enough down that there will actually be an enormous glut of oil…

          predictions are hard, especially about the future…

          “And literally billions of people will starve or die from conflict.”

          this is easier to predict: all 7+ billion of us are going to die, one way or another…

          but, hey…

          have a good one, everybody…

      • In your analysis, where do you put interest rate increases and dips, caused by Federal Reserve and QE policies? These are not inherent cycles in a sense. They are the Federal Government trying to stomp down inherent cycles, caused by the impact of diminishing returns on oil and other commodities production. These are a big cause of what is happening.

  9. Baby Doomer says:

    A global energy assessment (Jefferson 2015)

    The World in the 21st Century is faced with huge challenges that go far beyond, but importantly include, energy challenges on the supply, access, and use sides. So severe are these challenges, mainly arising from the demands of a rapidly increasing human population on the Earth’s limited resources, that the future existence of large numbers of people may be threatened with
    extinction. In that sense, we may be observing the twilight of the Anthropocene (Human) Age.

    https://www.scribd.com/document/394043449/A-Global-Energy-Assessment-Jefferson-2015

  10. Baby Doomer says:

    During the Great Depression, the U.S. deported between 400,000 to 2,000,000 people of Mexican heritage. Approximately sixty percent of them were born in the U.S. Because the forced movement was based on race, and ignored citizenship, the process arguably meets modern legal definitions of ethnic cleansing..

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_Repatriation

  11. Yoshua says:

    World C+C production less the U.S peaked in November 2016. Without U.S shale oil production we would be 2 years past peak oil today.

    http://peakoilbarrel.com/opec-october-production-data-2/

  12. Baby Doomer says:

    US Pushes for Dangerous Military Activity Near Russian Border – Lavrov

    https://sputniknews.com/world/201811241070089205-us-russia-border/

    https://imgur.com/a/FPAOnQz

  13. Baby Doomer says:

    This is how Arab newspapers are drawing Trump

    https://i.imgur.com/roDUI5Y.jpg

  14. Baby Doomer says:

    IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000

    There will be an oil shortage in the 2020’s, Goldman Sachs says
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/09/goldman-sachs-there-will-be-an-oil-shortage-in-the-2020s.html

    Growing demand for oil will lead to shortage and high prices in 2020s
    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2185046-growing-demand-for-oil-will-lead-to-shortage-and-high-prices-in-2020s/

    German Military (leaked) Peak Oil study: oil is used in the production of 95% of all industrial goods, so a shortage of oil would collapse the world economy & world governments
    https://www.scribd.com/document/387459134/german

    Imminent peak oil could burst US, global economic bubble – study
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/nov/19/peak-oil-economicgrowth

    • Chrome Mags says:

      I can’t wait. Really, we’re pumping more and more CO2 into the atmosphere, acidifying the oceans, causing a 6th mass extinction, initiating increases in methane emissions, increasing our population more every day. Bring on oil shortages as soon as possible.

      • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

        “oil shortages” sooner or later mean poverty for you and me…

        I live in the US northeast…

        I hope that means later for me…

        where do you live?

  15. CTG says:

    Have a look at this CCTV video clip (just one minute) and you will realize what “contagion” or “dominos” are in real life… Seriously, interconnectivity is a bit*h

    https://youtu.be/-CFTIOQCqTc

    • Volvo740 says:

      Amazing!!!

      • Hubbs says:

        This clip brings back “fond” memories of Flickinger’s Warehouse in Cheektowaga NY where I worked as a food selector back in 1976-7. Items were not so “securely” stacked onto shelves, rather on pallets, which required periodic forklift lowering a pallet on the top of a stack down to the ground where the lowly selector could remove one box and place it on his cart and from there to the loading docks. Back then, because we were on a piece count, it took time to call over the intercom for a forklift driver to come and lower a pallet twenty feet high off the top when the bottom pallet was empty.
        Selectors would undermine the stack by trying to peel off a single box from the bottom of the stack, and another, until the next guy tried the same and the whole tower collapsed. I remember once a stack of Motts apple juice come crashing down. It smelled like a cider mill in there for weeks.

        • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

          that’s an extraordinary video…

          but… it makes me think…

          apparently when the twwin towwers fell in 2001…

          they left all the surrounding buildings untouched…

          Amazing!!!

    • i1 says:

      cgi

      • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

        ya think?

        the guys in yellow shirts go running right away…

        maybe some of it but not the beginning?

        a yellow shirt guy reappears right at the end…

        maybe…

      • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

        also, watching on YouTube for a clearer picture:

        forklift driver ducks and covers his head with his arms…

        and near the end, a guy with a black shirt goes running away from the final stack that falls in the lower right of the scene…

        wild…

    • zenny says:

      It was in the UK and the operator had only minor cuts

    • Hubbs says:

      I took note of the sentence about the report that exploration when oil was 150 /bl failed to deliver any new substantial discoveries. It is a “duh” realization that even if you are currently producing from existing wells but you don’t find any new sources of oil, then you are eventually going to run out of oil! That says it all.
      But then the article falls apart.
      It wasn’t that there was a “shortage” of oil driving exploration, it was because for a while, you could sell oil for $150 a barrel if you could find it, until the market discovered it couldn’t tolerate those prices. The author doesn’t realize that he has rebutted his argument for higher prices in the future. He is stuck in the mindset of traditional supply and demand economics. This is why energy requires a unique coordination between the disciplines of finance, geology, physics. Instead, we have the classic example of three blind men trying to describe the elephant depending on whether they are touching its ear, body, or tail.

      Oil producers buying up their shares of stock rather than exploring for more don’t even seem to realize they are eating their own tails into a simgulairty. Even Exxon-Mobile by this realization will cease to exist, but by then, the CEOs will have been long gone with their bonuses.

      • It is the affordability issue that kills oil. Prices don’t rise endlessly. In some reports a few years ago, the IEA was envisioning $300 per barrel oil. This doesn’t happen.

        • Rodster says:

          And I’m sure the IEA thought the average median salary in the US would be $200,000 with oil priced at $300 p/b. Oil would be worthless at $300 p/b because few if any would be able to afford it. Your “Just In Time” delivery system would grind to a halt so would the global eCONomy.

  16. MG says:

    The problem of coal: burning local wood chips instead of transported and mined coal becomes more economical

    https://hnonline.sk/svet/1847550-takto-dokazali-obce-usetrit-na-energii-niektore-hlasia-aj-usporu-70-percent

    • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

      until the wood is harvested at a greater rate than it grows…

      I’ve read that those rolling grassy hills that we can see in pictures of Scotland were once dense forests…

      it’s the Tragedy of the Commons…

      which is an overpopulation problem…

      • xabier says:

        Our ancestors (mostly) worked out how to harvest wood -trees, thorn bushes, etc – for fuel on a rotation system, and this can actually increase the life of some species of tree by hundreds of years – somewhat counter-intuitively. If you love a tree, don’t hug it, cut it!

        The deforestation problem mostly seems to have its roots in over-extraction and grubbing-up of whole trees for constructional timber – ships, palaces, fortresses, etc – and also the determination to turn woodland into cereal-producing areas and grazing for goats.

        Goats are also the best grubbers-up in the world. So together the farmer and the goat create the fatal cycle of deforestation – soil erosion and exhaustion – semi or full desert.

        Historically, ignoring the intelligently-planned rotation cycle for firewood led not to the disappearance of the woodland, but population collapse: lots of wood for a few years, and then nothing much to use until the growing cycle caught up again – so people die off through cold and find their lives unsustainable.

        In medieval Europe, rotation cycles were rigorously-enforced by landowners, who derived a money-value from the sale of firewood, and who mostly expected their descendants to be in possession of their estates hundreds of years later – so self-interest, earl;y capitalism and inequality paradoxically helped to preserve woodland.

  17. Duncan Idaho says:

    Well, you could consume 3 mg of cyanide.
    (2.7001728 × 10-14 per human)

    You would be dead.

    A lot less than methane.

    • Chrome Mags says:

      It’s not the consumption of methane that’s the problem, but as a gas in the atmosphere if there’s too much of it.

      • Duncan Idaho says:

        Way too much.
        More than anytime homo sapiens have been alive.
        We shall see—-

      • JesseJames says:

        I do wonder how much methane 60 million buffalo farted and belched. Add to that 50 million wildabeasts, and so on. The numbers of large animals alive in the 18th and 19th centuries were impressive.

    • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

      those comparisons to tox-ins and pois-ons are ab-surd…

      why don’t you address the actual level of meth-ane…

      2 parts per million…

      the sky is falling!

      • Duncan Idaho says:

        Not much the sKy is falling—-
        I just gave you reality check on amounts.
        Maybe you can comprehend?

      • jupiviv says:

        “those comparisons to tox-ins and pois-ons are ab-surd…”

        No the focus on the number of molecules without context is absurd, which those comparisons are meant to demonstrate.

        • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

          but I gave the actual physical context…

          2 meth-ane molecules in the context of one million “other”…

          now, perhaps there are some ominous implications to that…

          but I doubt it…

          • jupiviv says:

            That isn’t a context, just another meaningless number. Arsenic toxicity is expressed in ppb. I don’t know why you think parts per refers to molecules.

  18. Chrome Mags says:

    http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20181119-why-flammable-ice-could-be-the-future-of-energy

    “Take a chunk of this stuff up to the surface and it looks and feels much like ice, except for a give-away fizzing sensation in the palm of your hand, but put a match to it and it doesn’t just melt, it ignites. Large international research programmes and companies in Japan, among other countries, are racing to retrieve this strange, counter-intuitive substance – known as fiery ice – from beneath the seafloor to use its methane for fuel. If all goes to plan, they may even start extraction by the end of the next decade. But the journey so far has been far from smooth.”

    They plan to dig this stuff up from the seabed. No chance a lot of that stuff could escape to the surface and into the atmosphere, right? Why worry, it’s just methane.

    • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

      this quote:

      “If all goes to plan, they may even start extraction by the end of the next decade. But the journey so far has been far from smooth.”

      they “may” even start before 2030…

      amazingly, that’s about when we will be seeing fusion reactors and Mars colonies…

      what a coincidence…

      • Duncan Idaho says:

        that’s about when we will be seeing fusion reactors and Mars colonies…

        I would not hold your breath on either—-

    • Volvo740 says:

      Maybe the extra methane is what led to the coolung? Who whudda thunk?

        • Volvo740 says:

          G wrng is pretty bad. But what’s worse is that we as humans can’t have an honest discussion about it. Not can we have an honest discussion about resource depletion or “the conomy” either.

          As an individual I’m starting to get a little annoyed by this. Certain narratives are accepted but others are not. Apparently the researchers behind “gloable dimmung” had one heck of a time getting their hard work acknowledged.

          We’re living through an extinction event that’s 10-100 times faster than any prior extinction event.

          Amazing. Sad. Overwhelming. All of it.

          • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

            wasn’t there recently an ice age here?

            I mean, a new ice age in the near future would seem to be more than a little annoying…

            and quite beyond “pretty bad”…

            • Volvo740 says:

              10,700 years ago. Without humanity we would have headed towards one again. Slowly. Now there is no chance of that happening.

            • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

              “we see a coooling trend” says who?

              oh, just a NASA scientist:

              https://www.sott.net/article/400550-We-see-a-cooling-trend-says-NASA-scientist

              have confidence in the science!

            • Volvo740 says:

              … in the upper atmosphere as a result of a large solar minimum.

              Has almost nothing to do with cliiimmate chaaanve.

            • Duncan Idaho says:

              The earth hasn’t has a single cool bias month in 34 years.

              We actually had been getting colder for 4,000 years.
              Then we used the atmosphere for a dumping ground for carbon.
              You have nothing to worry about for at least 100,000 years.

            • Slow Paul says:

              The glowball warming guys use the same scientific techniques as the ingenious economic guys. Extrapolate trends from year X to year Y so this and that will happen in year Z.

              If humans can’t understand economics (which is a human construct), how can we expect to understand the climate? Anything can happen.

              A man who knows how little he knows is well,
              A man who knows how much he knows is sick.

            • Duncan Idaho says:

              https://www.sott.net/article/400550-We-see-a-cooling-trend-says-NASA-scientist

              “Signs of the Times is a monthly magazine originally published by Pacific Press, a Seventh-day Adventist publishing house. ——- The magazine focuses on life’s-style issues, health articles and Christian devotional and other religious articles. From its historical roots, the magazine emphasizes the second coming of Christ to this earth and living such lives so as to be able to meet Jesus at His second coming.”

              Typical wingpawn news source.

            • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

              “We see a coooling trend,” Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center said in late September. “High above Earth’s surface, near the edge of space, our atmo-sphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, it could soon set a Space Age record for cold.”

              either the source is true or false…

              doesn’t matter who picks up the story…

          • Duncan Idaho says:

            About Psychology Tomorrow
            “Founded in 2012 as a protest against the dominance of conventional psychologies, Psychology Tomorrow Magazine (PTM) explores the practice of psychology and its alternatives in all their beautiful and complex possibilities.”

            Another great news source.

            Where do wingers find this stuff?

    • Or too little growth in energy consumption per capita is the real problem. Has nothing to do with Trump, except causing his election. Trumps actions are symptoms, not causes.

      • Baby Doomer says:

        Source Gail?

      • Greg Machala says:

        I agree. Trump is a symptom of the broader disease of diminishing returns. People are lashing out against the status quo. People can sense something isn’t right but they don’t know what it truly is.

        What is happening today is the cumulation of 200 years of rampant burning of a (once) cheap but finite energy resources. The greatest concentration of energy humans have ever laid hands on.

        The US has been in trouble since the early 1970’s when cheap conventional US crude oil production peaked. I’d say we extended and pretended pretty darn well. But, all the debt which really is going exponential now, is going to bite us hard as defaults begin to spread across the US and global economies.

        • Artleads says:

          These clear summation are a relief every now and then.

        • doomphd says:

          “But, all the debt which really is going exponential now, is going to bite us hard as defaults begin to spread across the US and global economies.”

          i’d expect that to begin in ernest after the X-mas New Year’s commercial holidays end, so about mid-to-late January.

          • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

            that’s good… I like near term predictions that are testable…

            I think defaults in 2019 will be mostly in EM-peripheral countries…

            do you want to predict what will default in “the US and global economies”?

  19. Duncan Idaho says:

    1958 — US: Astrology Works! Ronald & Nancy Reagan appear together in the “GE Theatre” production of “A Turkey for President”.

  20. Dennis L. says:

    Some of you might find this interesting, it dates from 2/18. https://www.bain.com/insights/labor-2030-the-collision-of-demographics-automation-and-inequality/
    The comments of this blog are very interesting and those of you who know about Bain might help the rest of us understand their point of view better.

    Dennis L.

    • jupiviv says:

      Looking at automation in isolation from energy isn’t useful.

    • Some of the right idea, but his timing is way too late. So many things going wrong at once mean that collapse comes much sooner than these issues by themselves might suggest.

      • Dennis L. says:

        Gail,

        Could you please search for a light at the end of the tunnel which is not an engine light coming down the tracks? You are brilliant and I suspect a Nobel Prize awaits you(recall, Albert worked as a patent clerk), but please a light in the darkness.

        Dennis L.

        • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

          I’m no Gail, but then…

          I do see the light… (pardon my very humble humility)…

          it’s where we are (in America, right?)…

          per capita energy elsewhere is declining and will continue…

          worldwide, it will be pushed downward mostly by huge declines in EM-peripheral countries…

          The Core can stay somewhat flat even as the worldwide per capita falls severely…

          it’s totally unfair, but we will benefit from this situation…

          which is happening now and could continue for many years…

          The End will be near when most of the EMs have fallen and the weaker core countries start to fall…

          the key is that this is not theoretical…

          it’s really happening now…

          More For The Core…

          • Christopher says:

            “The Core can stay somewhat flat even as the worldwide per capita falls severely…”

            Crashing EM will cause an unprecedented wave of migration. My guess is that the core will have to take a hit in order to convince the core population of the necessity of border walls an military prevention of migration at the borders. Most western european countries are far to divided in this question at the moment. Also USA seems to be to divided.

            • xabier says:

              In Europe, for instance, we see the globalising capitalists arguing for even more immigration on ethical humanitarian grounds and also to provide the workers to rectify the growing demographic imbalance caused by too few births in Europe, etc.

              They tend not to mention their age-old desire for dirt-cheap, politically neutral labour (people who have never known labour rights, etc) and the need to maintain mass consumption.

              The Left, on the other hand, tends to argue for immigration on internationalist humanitarian grounds, ‘solidarity’ and anti-racism, and the moral duty ‘to share the wealth’ of Europe (ha!). This is a strong argument in Spain as so many had to leave in the 1950’s and 60’s to work in the richer countries of Europe due to the poverty of the Spanish economy.

              But I’ve noticed increasing working class disenchantment with this argument: ‘What wealth? they say. And ‘What good are so many unskilled people, a large % of whom don’t work anyway?’

              The official and public arguments are growing a bit thin, and the population replacement in many major cities is resented, but the status quo parties, Left and Right will continue to make them.

        • nikoB says:

          There is a light at the end of the tunnel. It’s a Flamethrower.

    • JesseJames says:

      This article ignores the effects of energy on automation. Automation is only viable (today) for mass production. Similarly, mass production is only viable with near-infinite demand worldwide, which also depends on cheap energy.
      Automation in a manufacturing plant is specific to a product type, which means that robots must be regularly replaced, or the product never changes significantly. Automated equipment robots have high maintenance costs, and require highly skilled, expensive technicians to service them. They require complex supply chains to maintain them.

      I will disagree that there is no longer cheap labor available. What is no longer abundant is cheap highly skilled labor. The March of cheap energy fueled technology carries with it the ever increasing need for skilled labor. Thus a new highly complex product requires ever more trained technicians and programmers. Often, these highly skilled repair and maintenance technicians travel large distances to maintain equipment disperses around the world. This is due to the cost of these highly trained technicians, and due to their scarcity. These are what is in short supply.
      It is a trap set by cheap energy. A never ending spiral of energy fueled complexity that eventually exhausts itself. I look at robots and I see an energy and complexity sink. It is never ending and ever increasing. I look at mass production and I see shipping transportation and delivery costs, again, all dependent upon cheap energy. Forget smartphone, they do not matter. What matters is production of products that make things, move things and feed and care for people. It is the complexity sink of technology and automation that dooms our hyper complex society to economic and logistical collapse, due to decreasing supply’s of energy.

      At the end if the article, there is a url for another article titled, “Spatial eceonomics, the declining cost of distance”. Distance in economics is only declining in cost if energy is cheap to transport products. One day in the future, outlets like Wallmart, which import many products from China, will see costs rising, and local, regional mnaufacturing will return.

  21. Clay says:

    Nice summary Gail. I like your your clarification of the term “demand”. Clears some of the problems people have with understanding things using incorrect terminology.

    Best of luck, Clay

  22. CTG says:

    50.83USD/bbl.
    -3.80-6.96%

    No kidding

    • Things falling apart quickly!

      • Greg Machala says:

        It is crazy. Seems like last month everyone was waiting to see how high oil will go. Now, everyone is watching how low it will go. If you look at the trend over the last 12 years, if we do fall back into the 30s again just from that alone I don’t think will will ever see oil prices get above $80 ever again. And there are other reasons to be pessimistic about oil prices. Look at SA pumping flat out again disregarding the production limits. Other oil producing countries will certainly follow suit. All that will come as people around the world will not be able to afford the output of the economy. Leading to further deflation. We are nearing the breaking point.

        • Slow Paul says:

          I agree, we will probably see the price back to 20-30 and then slowly build up (“recovery”) to about 60-70 and then we will see another crash, and so on. The oil price will keep on bumping it’s head in the ever descending ceiling of affordability.

          New oil fields doesn’t seem profitable to explore and recover in general. We will probably cut back on environmental and safety regulations to make it more profitable. Meanwhile there are an ever decreasing amount of resources to be divided on an increasing population. Everybody is getting poorer, but the core will shake off some peripheral countries to make sure they have enough for their own. Mass famine/refugee-crisis ensues. Probably war as well but not in the core.

  23. CTG says:

    Hey….. WTI at $52.09.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM

    It must be on Black Friday sale too!

    • Duncan Idaho says:

      yep—- at about 50 now—-

      The big blip in deep water discoveries in the 2000s from improved technologies and higher prices contributed greatly to the subsequent glut and price collapse – and now what’s left? There hasn’t been much of an uptick in exploration despite the price rally, offshore drillers continue to go bust, leasing activity still fairly slow – the tranches get bigger as the last, less attractive bits are released but lease ratio falls, Permian dominates all news stories. Why would the recent decline curve turn around? And the biggest surprise might be that gas is just as bad as oil, so the recent boost in supplies from condensate and NGL might also have run its course.

      We shall see– we will soon be in supply situation that is new.

    • Dennis L. says:

      Shakespeare understood this well; the more things change the more they are the same.

      Dennis L.

  24. Baby Doomer says:

    Gap looking to close hundreds of stores at malls ‘quickly and aggressively’

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/21/gap-to-close-hundreds-of-stores-at-malls-quickly-and-aggressively.html?__source=sharebar|facebook&par=sharebar

  25. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The stock market is no longer not just not great — it’s downright awful. In fact, after the 550-point plunge in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday (November 20), 2018’s market meltdown

    “…at least in terms of valuations, now ranks among the worst of the past few decades.”

    https://gulfnews.com/business/analysis/it-could-all-get-a-lot-worse-for-us-stocks-1.60516960

  26. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Italian banks are sitting on [Europe’s] biggest pile of bad debt: €224.2B ($255.9B), with NPLs and advances making up nearly a quarter of all loans. As if that is not bad enough, the banks now have to contend with potentially heavy penalties coming from Brussels after Italy’s recalcitrant leadership refused to revise the country’s fiscal 2019 budget to lower debt and borrowing.

    “The sharks can already smell the blood in the water, and investors have been shorting Italian banking stocks to death. Italian banks hold nearly a fifth of the country’s government bonds.”

    https://safehaven.com/news/Breaking-News/The-Big-Bet-Against-Italian-Banks.html

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Greece is scrambling to figure out how to save its banks — again. Burdened by bad loans that make up almost half of total lending, crippled banks remain one of the biggest hurdles to Greece’s economic recovery.

      “There are even worries that the country may face yet another financial crisis if it can’t dislodge its lenders from their downward spiral.”

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-23/how-greece-is-scrambling-to-save-its-banks-again-quicktake

      • Greece fits the standard pattern:

        if a nation doesn’t produce sufficient energy from within its own borders it must beg buy borrow or steal it from somewhere else, or sink back to a median level it can support from its own resources

        • Theophilus says:

          The question is can a nation, “sink back to a median level that is supported by its own resources” without experiencing collapse? I think the majority opinion of OFWers is that complex systems don’t shrink in an organized way, they collapse past what we would consider a median support level. Self organizing systems grow and increase in complexity in an organized way as energy is increased, but when energy is decreased they fall apart in a disorganized way. I recently read an article in which an author suggested that we could reduce our consumption of energy resources by 25% or more. And that would be okay because we used to live that way only ten or twenty years ago. Sorry I forgot where I read that. But I think it’s naive to think that a complex system can just shrink in size without catastrophic consequences. Usually when an organism life supporting resources are reduced the organism dies.

          • sinking back was a polite way of saying collapse—with all the associated chaos that will go with it

            the regression piece was here:
            https://www.resilience.org/stories/2018-11-21/the-limits-of-renewable-energy-and-the-case-for-degrowth/

            saying we should go back to 1975 energy usage—completely ignoring the fact that world pop has doubled since then…thats why I fire back at articles like that in the comments section—waste of time though

            • xabier says:

              Even funnier are the ‘1850’s energy usage’ suggestions……

            • lol—yes

              i think you have to wear blinkers to write for resilience

            • Greg Machala says:

              I agree. Once growth occurs anywhere in our industrial economy then, that is the new baseline. There is no going backwards. This becomes a problem with “renewable” energy as folks will want to maintain all the comforts and conveniences we have now with no sacrifices. To really have a process that is closer to renewable would mean it would come with a lot of undesirable side-effects. Take for instance if everyone bathed out of a bucket (made from plants) with water heated by the sun; it would reduce carbon emissions and energy use. But, it is hardly desirable as folks are too conditioned to fossil fuels luxuries such as indoor plumbing, cleaning,pumping and heating water . Same goes for sailing ships. Everyone wants a free lunch. In physics there is no free lunch.

              The sum of what I have learned over the years leads me to believe there isn’t even enough fossil fuels left on this planet to build enough wind turbines and solar panels and batteries to provide 100% of societies electrical needs. And I am speaking of only electrical needs and nothing else.

              The reasoning behind my theory is that while building the millions of panels, turbines and batteries, a point will be reached (well before 100%) where the earlier wind turbines, solar panes and batteries would begin to fail faster than they could be built and replaced. At that point, you would forever be stuck on a treadmill to nowhere until fossil fuels run out trying to build and replace all the wind turbines, batteries and solar panels. You would never reach the 100% goal. In addition, electrical costs would have to go through the roof to pay for all this waste. It is a waste. It is an energy sink. There is no such thing as “renewable” energy.

            • doomphd says:

              whilst i am in tenative agreement with the no going backwards versus population growth meme, i think we should examine where this population growth has occurred and is going, to see if there will be negative effects on going backwards. my impression is most of the recent population growth has been in africa, south asia and south-central america, not in the eurozone, north america, japan, or russia. if so, then the broad-bush statements about “population growth” on a global scale have little/less meaning in the argument, unless globalization has us all that connected.

              the only region i can see as seriously affecting economic growth would be south asia, and certainly not south-central america. the latter are no economic powerhouse, as are most of the african countries.

            • in broad terms, the world economic system is interlocked, because the energy production/use system is interlocked

              in nations where there’s been pop growth but little econ growth, their people try to migrate to where economic wealth/safety is. This is human instinct for survival and is happening right now.

              this in turn gives rise the backlash politics of extremists, to counter these movements–which is also happening right now

              as conditions worsen, action-reaction will get more violent as resources continue to decline. This decline will be seen as a ”political problem” rather than an energy problem.

              So right wing idiots get voted into office, by making idiotic promises based on ignorance of what is really happening—again–this is happening right now.

              all these factors must coalesce into a ultimate global collapse as each energy system goes down. Not all at the same time obviously, but as one nation goes down, others will follow with increasing speed and inevitability

              when?

              our oil supplies will be finished in 30 years tops. So well before then as people fight for foothold on the stern rail of the Titanic

            • Theophilus says:

              Ok, sinking back like the Titanic

          • xabier says:

            If we imagine our societies and economies as an organism which has grown in size, adapted and evolved, to require the current level of energy production, then the ‘we can just shrink back, life was pretty cool in 1965’ arguments are shown up for what they are.

            Furthermore, the change is quite likely going to be so rapid, comparatively speaking, that evolution towards a smaller size and different habits will be impossible in a useful time-frame.

            And just look at the violence in France caused by a rather modest rise in fuel costs.

            The tipping point for social disorder – leading to political chaos, dictatorships,, etc, seems to be quite close in every advanced economy; much as a rise in the cost of bread or rice causes riots in more primitive economies where a much higher % of income goes on food and other basics than in the advanced economies.

            • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

              “If we imagine our societies and economies as an organism which has grown in size…”

              or, if we imagine our countries as individual organisms…

              then what do we see?

              many sick and losing weight…

              if those peripheral countries no longer stay alive in IC, then what?

              more for The Core…

              hmmmm…

              a slogan is born:

              More For The Core…

        • zenny says:

          Or they could invite people with cash and show them a good time and use that cash.
          Instead they turned the place int a dump and have become beggars. AKA tird world

  27. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Oil prices slumped to 2018 lows on Friday in thin but volatile trading, pulled down by concerns of an emerging global supply overhang amid a bleak economic outlook…

    “Amid the plunge, Brent and WTI price volatility has surged in November to approach levels not seen since the the market slump of 2014-2016 and, before that, the financial crisis of 2008-2009…

    “High production comes as the demand outlook weakens on the back of a global economic slowdown.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/23/oil-markets-crude-supply-global-economy-in-focus.html

  28. Chrome Mags says:

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-fans-sink-savings-into-iraqi-dinar-scam

    Are there any posters on here buying Iraqi Dinars?

    “Trump supporter Hayes Kotseos runs a North Carolina pool-maintenance company, but she’s got a side bet that she thinks might make her fabulously wealthy: the Iraqi dinar. The currency is nearly worthless outside of Iraq, but Kotseos bought millions of dinars in April, after watching a video of President Trump at a 2017 press conference. In the clip, Trump says, with characteristic vagueness, that all currencies will soon “be on a level playing field.” In reality, Trump was talking about trade imbalances with China. But like other Trump supporters who have fallen into the dinar investment scam, which has existed since at least 2012, Kotseos interpreted Trump’s rambling statement as proof that the Iraqi dinar would soon be worth as much or even more than the dollar, making anyone who had been smart enough to buy in early a millionaire.”

    “I love my president, and I was like, ‘Oh my God,’” Kotseos told The Daily Beast.

    The purchase, Kotseos said, cost her and her husband somewhere between $5,000 and $10,000, counting the cut to the company that sold them the dinars. Two of her adult children have bought millions more dinars, too. Like other investors in the incredibly long-shot dinar scheme, Kotseos hopes that Trump and the Iraqi government will somehow “revalue” or “RV” the currency, boosting its current value of less than $0.001 to $3 or $4. Dinar promoters have claimed that near-mythical event will occur for nearly a decade. But if it does it would theoretically make a millionaire of anyone with the foresight to put just a few thousand dollars into dinars.”

    • jupiviv says:

      Trump supporters can’t get enough of what is coming to them. Same for anyone else who thinks supporting politicians makes them and/or the world better.

  29. Chrome Mags says:

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-most-thankful-for-tremendous-difference-he-has-made-in-america_us_5bf73215e4b0eb6d930cf748

    ‘Trump Is ‘Most Thankful’ For His Own ‘Tremendous’ Work.’

    That’s an interesting approach to life. Instead of waiting for others to compliment you, you simply complement yourself. It’s faster, easier and can be repeated as often as needed to maintain self esteem. In post collapse, times will be tough, but if we repeatedly pat ourselves on our own back, maybe the stress won’t be as difficult to handle.

      • doomphd says:

        my dos centavos on the above pictures: Bush should show the most support, after all, he sent them there; typical Obama hype, he helps pay for one free meal per year to those homeless vets, yeah; Trump allocates the least effort, since he is just showing support for the troops sent into harm’s way by the two former CNCs. those are not his wars. notice he hasn’t started any new ones.

        • Dan says:

          The point is that leadership is done from the front and involves some sacrafice. I know the Don was bigly put out by making his phone call from a golf resort. I watched the spectacle live yesterday and after being MIA on memorial day lets just do away with any pleasentaries about supporting troops. As for not starting any new wars I believe he is drumming one up with Iran – ses his explanation via tweets on giving MBS a pass on the Khashogi murder. Can’t wait to see his spin once the Turks release the tape of him ordering it
          A pathetic attempt at leadership. Always Trump about Trump above all else.

          • doomphd says:

            starting wars with Iran or with North Korea might just be enough disruption to bring the whole house of cards down. let’s hope he’s just bluffing.

            regarding SA and the murdered journalist, the US deals with murdering bastards all the time, and is in fact among the best of the murdering bastards globally, ironically executed by the suddenly-truthful CIA. not saying any of this is OK, it is what it is, and the rest is simply Trump-bashing, a popular sport these days.

  30. adonis says:

    silver or gold is good during a hyper-inflationary event which could happen once the elders lose control

  31. Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

    tonight’s sale price on Bitcoin is $4171

    be patient… Black Friday sale should be below 4000

  32. Baby Doomer says:

    Peak Oil & Drastic Oil Shortages Imminent, Says IEA

    https://cleantechnica.com/2018/11/22/peak-oil-drastic-oil-shortages-imminent-says-iea/

    • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

      okay, we know that peak oil either has happened recently or will happen soon…

      that’s a mathematical certainty…

      but the IEA doesn’t read OFW and has no clue about demand destruction and affordability issues with oil…

      as surplus energy continues to decline, the per capita affordability of oil will continue to decline…

      so as long as the affordability decline is at least as fast as the supply decline, there will NOT be oil shortages…

      the real shortage will be the money that the average person is able to spend…

      and oil prices could go even lower, but if incomes decline at a faster rate, there will be less oil related purchases…

      yes, supply will be going down in the near future…

      but that’s only one side of the coin…

      affordability may crash in the next year or two, and the world may have plenty of unsold oil available, even with a drop in production…

      • Baby Doomer says:

        When you add one billion people to the world around every decade, demand doesn’t stop..And the majority of demand is coming from Asia..And there are no affordability issues their..There per capita income has increased five fold over the last 30 years..

        https://imgur.com/a/24quMTm

        • The number of call phones sold worldwide has leveled off and seems to be falling. (I haven’t looked at all of them, but that seems to be the direction.) Auto sales seemed to have fallen off too. Both China and India are having difficulty in maintaining home sales. Where do you get the idea that there is no worldwide affordability problem? Have people decided to stop buying these things, even though they can afford them?

  33. jupiviv says:

    Article on wind from Alice Friedemann’s blog:

    http://energyskeptic.com/2018/germanys-wind-energy-mess-as-subsidies-expire-thousands-of-turbines-to-close/

    “The Baseler Zeitung adds that some 5,700 plants with an installed capacity of 45 GW will see their subsidies run out by 2020. In the following years, it will be between 2000 and 3000 GW, for which the state subsidization is eliminated. The German Wind Energy Association estimates that by 2023 around 14,000 MW of installed capacity will lose production, which is more than a quarter of German wind power capacity on land. According to the German Wind Energy Association, installed capacity per megawatt is expected to cost 30,000 euros.

    The Swiss daily reports further: So with new turbines coming online only slowly, it’s entirely possible that wind energy output in Germany will recede in the coming years, thus making the country appear even less serious about climate protection.

    So what happens to the old turbines that will get taken offline?

    Wind park owners hope to send their scrapped wind turbine clunkers to third-world buyers, Africa for example. But if these buyers instead opt for new energy systems, then German wind park operators will be forced to dismantle and recycle them – a costly endeavor, reports the Baseler Zeitung.”

    • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

      this article is sweet schadenfreude…

      “Next, the Baseler Zeitung brings up the disposal of the massive 3,000-tonne reinforced concrete turbine base, which according to German law must be removed. The complete removal of the concrete base can quickly cost hundreds of thousands of euros.

      Some of these concrete bases reach depths of 20 meters and penetrate multiple ground layers, the Baseler Zeitung reports, adding:

      Already wind park operators are circumventing this huge expense by only removing the top two meters of the concrete and steel base, and then hiding the rest with a layer of soil, the Baseler writes.

      In the end, most of the concrete base will remain as garbage buried in the ground, and the above-ground turbine litter will likely get shipped to third-world countries.

      That’s Germany’s Energiewende and contribution to protecting the environment and climate!”

      or the above-ground litter could also be buried…

      out of sight, out of mind…

      it’s been going around here at OFW for quite a while that “renewable” equipment has a (short) finite lifetime and then must be replaced…

      stories that confirm this are fun to read…

  34. adonis says:

    listen up lads it would be a good idea to stock up on silver coins as it will give you enough payback to survive what’s coming as the end of BAU may result in a hyper-inflationary period silver could be the difference between life and death

    • DJ says:

      Why not gold?

      • Most things a person wants to buy are things like food and clothing. Silver coins are better matched in value (in theory) to what a person want to spend than gold coins.

    • Duncan Idaho says:

      The trouble with us in America isn’t that the poetry of life has turned to prose, but that it has turned to advertising copy.
      ~Louis Kronenberger

      • We seem to find advertising wherever we look: bill boards, web sites, e-mail, snail mail, land line phone, cell phone. It is hard to get away from it, wherever a person goes.

        • Rodster says:

          Many years ago, I read that from the moment we wake up to the moment we go to bed, we are being sold something.

    • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

      in a short crisis…

      I would prefer canned food over silver…

      in a long enough crisis, even canned food won’t save you…

      and silver will be a funny joke…

    • zenny says:

      Just remember not all eggs in one basket

      • Greg Machala says:

        I don’t think there is even a basket to put eggs in regarding what lies ahead.

        • Theophilus says:

          That’s the funniest and most depressing statement that I have heard in a long time. Did you make that up yourself or is it a quote? Either way I’m going to steal it. Thanks Greg.

        • xabier says:

          I saw an amusing reference to how rats deal with the egg problem, and not having a basket.

          One rat grabs the egg when flipped in its back: another rat then pulls its pal back to the nest by its tail.

          Probably devoid of any practical application for us, but I like it.

          Rats Will Conquer All! 🙂

  35. Kurt says:

    Happy Thanksgiving to Gail and everyone here on our finite world!!!

    • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

      Kurt!

      I had turkey!

      did you have turkey?

      apparently The Collapse has been delayed again…

      • Duncan Idaho says:

        “There’s nothing viscerally tragic about living a middle class life in first world countries.

        The tragedy is a slow unwinding of lost potential happiness where we are subjugated to menial jobs serving employers whom we can never escape – entrapped and coerced into an unwanted life. The American dream has always been a dream for the nothing, but the nothing is getting worse, and has been refashioned into a dream of finally not worrying about food, housing, and retirement security which is dangled cruelly in front of us in an unending cavalcade of predatory advertising.”

    • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

      and Happy Thanksgiving to you…

      I had turkey!

      did you have turkey?

      • Kurt says:

        I had a lot of turkey. And stuffing, and mashed potatoes. I plan to do it on Xmas as well. I might have Adonis and FE over to the house for dinner. Then again, maybe not.

        • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

          for Xmas, I think I will invite Am-ber Herrd…

          I like the new calmer funnier FE that we have been seeing…

          and adonis has shortened his timelines…

          usually no more than 10 days ahead…

          that’s good, since it shortens the time that I have to worry about him being correct…

          it’s all good fun…

          peace…

  36. Harry McGibbs says:

    “”Interest rates in many big markets have been at zero or even below zero during the past decade. This has produced a massive increase in debt levels all over the world. The era of cheap money is gradually coming to an end, and this could have massive implications for your portfolio [at the very least!].”

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4223927-global-debt-bubble-explode-time-protect-portfolio

  37. Uncle Bill says:

    Plantagenet wrote:
    Thanksgiving Could Be Among the Coldest on Record

    Depends on where you are. Up here in Alaska we are still having near record warm temperatures. Thanksgiving this year is set to be 65° warmer then the first thanksgiving I experienced in Alaska.

    I repeat…its 65° warmer now!

    Cheers!

    • Tim Groves says:

      Its a bit warmer than usual here in Kyoto too. And the prediction is for a warmer than usual January and February, which suits me fine as I quickly tire of shoveling snow. And I’m assured its colder than usual down in NZ. All this is just weather, which is, as we all know, extremely variable. If an when you are consistently 65° warmer in Alaska every Thanksgiving for 30 years or more, you’ll be living under a different clime-ate.

    • Uncle Bill says:

      From the BBC …a DIFFERENT STORY…go figure
      Andaman Director of the General Police Dependra Pathak told the News Minute, an Indian news website, he was told that Chau lived in the US state of Alabama and was “some kind of paramedic”.

      “People thought he is a missionary because he had mentioned his position on God and that he was a believer on social media or somewhere online. But in a strict sense, he was not a missionary.

      “He was an adventurer. His intention was to meet the aborigines.”

      Officials say the islanders have lived in isolation for nearly 60,000 years and therefore have no immunities to common illnesses such as the flu and measles.

      Advocacy group Survival International said that by contacting the community, Chau may have passed along pathogens that have the “potential to wipeout the entire tribe” of about 50 to 150 people

    • jupiviv says:

      That tribe can’t resist the compassionate embrace of BAU much longer.

      https://pics.me.me/it-is-inevitable-quickmeme-com-19928750.png

  38. adonis says:

    but mark my words the elders are planning to pull the plug on the current system on the 29th of November thinking they know how to solve all the worlds problems i predict this will lead to some crazy times in the next couple of years as BAU unravels

    • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

      the “elders” benefit greatly from “the current system”…

      that is why “they” are doing everything possible to keep The Core (where “they” live) working…

      there is no Plan B…

      November 30th will be similar to the 29th…

      The Core will be saved from near disaster again and again…

      until a “save” doesn’t work…

      probably some year in the mid 2020s…

    • Lastcall says:

      many have already unraveled, including some on here!

  39. Fast Eddy says:

    Wildfire investigators rarely find themselves in the spotlight; they are less visible and less celebrated than the firefighters and hotshot crews that battle the blazes on the frontlines. But in an era of increasingly destructive—and increasingly costly—wildfires, investigators’ work is more important than ever. The fires that tore across the state between October and December of 2017 cost nearly $12 billion in claims, the California Department of Insurance reported. And Citigroup analysts estimated on Wednesday that the Camp Fire alone could top $15 billion. It is in large part up to wildfire investigators to sort out who will foot the bill.

    By policy, Cal Fire keeps wildfire investigations under tight wraps. Of course, that has not prevented speculation about the cause of the Camp Fire. PG&E, the utility company that state officials say was responsible for at least 17 of 21 major fires in Northern California last fall, has reported two power-line failures around the time of the fire, and some have begun trying to connect the dots. The company’s stock value has taken a roller-coaster ride since the fire broke out on November 8, plunging more than 60 percent in a week before pulling out of free fall and surging almost 40 percent on Friday. For now, though, Cal Fire has remained tight-lipped about the Camp Fire investigation. And it likely will for the foreseeable future; investigations into major wildfires often take the greater part of a year, if not longer.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/11/california-wildfires-fire-investigators/576286/

    And I am thinking … there are other reasons why they don’t like to disclose the cause…. before shooting up the local mall… why not spark up have the county …. or if you wanted to do real harm as a terrorist… and not get caught…. every couple of weeks… take up smoking….

    • zenny says:

      Hopefully they declare it a tard free zone and ban rebuilding and charge a 50% carbon tax on insurance payouts.
      It would help the children.

  40. MG says:

    The Foreign Affairs Minister of Slovakia Miroslav Lajčák seems to be too much open for the migration, regardless the energy principles:

    https://spectator.sme.sk/c/20966121/lajcak-considers-resignation-if-the-migration-compact-is-rejected.html

    He probably knows nothing about the “sauna principle”:

    https://ourfiniteworld.com/2018/10/14/the-worlds-fragile-economic-condition-part-2/comment-page-20/#comment-190506

    So he must resign or will be fired…

  41. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/20/magazine/palm-oil-borneo-climate-catastrophe.html
    Palm Oil Was Supposed to Help Save the Planet. Instead It Unleashed a Catastrophe.
    A decade ago, the U.S. mandated the use of vegetable oil in biofuels, leading to industrial-scale deforestation — and a huge spike in carbon emissions.

  42. psile says:

    A great collapsatarian article with one of the founders of the French Green Party. Really nails it:

    THE END OF A WORLD (3/6) – Collapse, nuclear and capitalism: interview with Jean-Marc Jancovici and Yves Cochet

    LCI: Do not you think that at the moment of this collapse, the leaders and the richest will manage to keep their comfort and interests?

    YC: I think that at the time of the collapse, which will intervene for me rather before 2030 than before 2050, the rich will not be able to isolate themselves from the rest of the population and continue as if nothing had happened. In this rapid collapse, which can happen in a few months, maybe the army alone will last longer because it has stocks of just about everything: gas, food, and so on. But not Emmanuel Macron or Bernard Arnault, who are too dependent on the world economy.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      I stopped here (I actually should have not opened the link at all given it was from the Green Party)…

      MJ: If you’re wondering how to preserve something that you can not preserve, you already have the answer … The question I can answer is: what can we sustainably preserve for 7 billions of people? If we do not eat too much meat, we can probably preserve the food, because most plant surfaces are currently used to feed animals. But our model will have to adapt, because the current agriculture is a “mining” agriculture which must extract potash or gas to manufacture the fertilizers and which causes an erosion of the grounds. Current yields in the West are allowed by fertilizers, tractors and pesticides, hence by hydrocarbons, and this is not sustainable.

      Because he is clearly not thought this through — or is just stuuupid (my default assumption is the latter — because most people are stuuuupid):

      Soil that is farmed using petro-chemical inputs — will support no crop once the additives are stopped – without years of intensive rejuvenation involving organic inputs

      Effect of Pesticides on soil fertility (beneficial soil microorganisms)

      Heavy treatment of soil with pesticides can cause populations of beneficial soil microorganisms to decline. According to the soil scientist Dr. Elaine Ingham, “If we lose both bacteria and fungi, then the soil degrades. Overuse of chemical fertilizers and pesticides have effects on the soil organisms that are similar to human overuse of antibiotics.

      Indiscriminate use of chemicals might work for a few years, but after awhile, there aren’t enough beneficial soil organisms to hold onto the nutrients” (Savonen, 1997). For example, plants depend on a variety of soil microorganisms to transform atmospheric nitrogen into nitrates, which plants can use. Common landscape herbicides disrupt this process: triclopyr inhibits soil bacteria that transform ammonia into nitrite (Pell et al., 1998); glyphosate reduces the growth and activity of free-living nitrogen-fixing bacteria in soil (Santos and Flores, 1995) and 2,4-D reduces nitrogen fixation by the bacteria that live on the roots of bean plants (Arias and Fabra, 1993; Fabra et al., 1997), reduces the growth and activity of nitrogen-fixing blue-green algae (Singh and Singh, 1989; Tözüm-Çalgan and Sivaci-Güner, 1993), and inhibits the transformation of ammonia into nitrates by soil bacteria (Frankenberger et al., 1991, Martens and Bremner, 1993).

      Mycorrhizal fungi grow with the roots of many plants and aid in nutrient uptake. These fungi can also be damaged by herbicides in the soil. One study found that oryzalin and trifluralin both inhibited the growth of certain species of mycorrhizal fungi (Kelley and South, 1978). Roundup has been shown to be toxic to mycorrhizal fungi in laboratory studies, and some damaging effects were seen at concentrations lower than those found in soil following typical applications (Chakravarty and Sidhu, 1987; Estok et al., 1989). Triclopyr was also found to be toxic to several species of mycorrhizal fungi (Chakravarty and Sidhu, 1987) and oxadiazon reduced the number of mycorrhizal fungal spores (Moorman, 1989).

      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2984095/

      Organic inputs will be hard to come by considering nothing can be grown – and most if not all animals are killed and eaten.

      Less than 1% of all farmland globally is farmed organically.

      Get ready to starve. No matter where you are:

      https://assets.weforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/agriculture3.png

      https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/08/which-countries-have-the-most-organic-agricultural-land/ (note – most organic land in Australia is rubbish and supports sheep only)

      • Fast Eddy says:

        So BAU ends…. can we stop eating meat …. and instead feed the people that are left with the crops used to raise cattle pigs etc?

        NOPE!

        Because nothing will grow on those millions of hectares without years of repair — and to repair it you need manure — you need animals….

        And what do you eat while you wait years?

        Like I said — stuuuupidity … right up there with the petrol station scene from Zoolander …

        And yet the re tar d who made these comments on this article … no doubt believes he is making deep insights…

        His insights are about as deep as a bowl of water…

        And now look at this — 3 minutes of my time wasted responding to an article from a Green Groopie — what is this world coming to???

        • adonis says:

          you’re 3 minutes were not wasted i learnt something without BAU no system can exist to feed the people

        • Theblondbeast says:

          There will be plenty of people to eat. Don’t worry so much.

          • doomphd says:

            you may have to pen them up, like in “The Ro ad”, because of lack of refrigeration, or salt the meat down, like in the olden days. maybe stock up on rock salt and big barrels, and say hello to high blood pressure and heart disease/stroke. disgusting, but a way to survive.

      • psile says:

        Stop being such an asshole FE, fer f#cks sake.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Further to that comment…

          Man U won… see:

          KKKLIMATE DATA FAKED

          by John Bates (leading kkklimate scientist)

          In the following sections, I provide the details of how Mr. Karl failed to disclose critical information to NOAA, Science Magazine, and Chairman Smith regarding the datasets used in K15. I have extensive documentation that provides independent verification of the story below. I also provide my suggestions for how we might keep such a flagrant manipulation of scientific integrity guidelines and scientific publication standards from happening in the future. Finally, I provide some links to examples of what well documented CDRs look like that readers might contrast and compare with what Mr. Karl has provided.

          https://judithcurry.com/2017/02/04/c limate-scientists-versus-c limate-data/

      • xabier says:

        Yes, the Frog Greenie is a chump: eiiminate all the livestock and there is no possibility of a traditional historic mixed agriculture, with manure provided by those animals – and by their owners, we shouldn’t forget.

        I get the impression that most land farmed as ‘organic’ is marginal, except where some very rich owners (like the Tetrapak heiress Lisbet Rausing) have gone all ecological and run it as a personal – and very expensive – experiment. Good for them, their estates are beautiful, but insignificant in proportion to the whole.

        The military are also just as much a part of the global economy these days as any other sector, with huge supply chains. I know someone who spends their day desperately trying to track -globally – down spare parts for the trainer planes used in the UK.

      • Rufus says:

        You should have read further. This would probably have pleased you :

        « If we find ourselves in instability, even barbarism or chaos, …. Knowing that there are several tons of plutonium in the nuclear reprocessing centre at La Hague, imagine what would happen if public services were to fail…. what would happen if the cooling of the pools at La Hague stopped. »

        Waouw ! First time, I read about spent fuel ponds elsewhere than OFW.

        You must considere that this is an interview on a MSM, not on OFW. It’s the web site of the most popular french TV watched by the normal average french guy, who mainly cares about the price of gasoline and his future retirement pension.

        It’s pretty impressive to read such doomy theories exposed on a mainstream media.

        Note : Yve Cochet left the green party because of disagreement of view. He’s now a doomer, joined a movement hoping to help prepare people for collapse.

  43. milan says:

    got to see this to believe it?

    The Ayatollah’s Revenge
    Iran’s Secret Plan to Push the Price of Gas Above $16 a Gallon
    But you don’t have to suffer…
    The last time oil prices spiked, early investors could’ve made
    12 times their money. And the same thing could happen again
    this winter when Iran strikes at the heart of the global oil supply.

    tps://secure.caseyresearch.com/chain?cid=MKT386311&eid=MKT389257&encryptedSnaid=umYbfTirOMlQwZJPXYKnFvGV5lW4CFuQ9quPKGJ2e6A=&snaid=SAC0005785340&step=start&emailjobid=3504891&emailname=181121%20-%20CSR%20Free%20-%20TCR%203rd%20oil%20Shock%20-%20Image%20Ded%20-%20Fear#

    • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

      I probably won’t watch it, but curious:

      what’s the story here in this match of Iran vs The World, that Iran will win?

      why?

  44. Fast Eddy says:

    Evidence of thought control:

    Cryptocurrencies.

    The fact that you have to convert them to fiat means they are completely pointless… a ponze.

    Yet they have value — a bitcoin can be exchanged for over $4000.

    I was speaking to someone recently who is in deep on the ponze … he was telling me that corporations are shifting cash into crypto ‘because it makes it easier to move money around’

    I asked why they needed CCs to move money around — just pay a small TT fee and you can move massive amounts of money around in seconds….

    He did not respond…

    (and the good thing about using major currencies is that when you move the money … it is likely to retain most of its value … with a CC you never know what you are gonna get… maybe that’s the appeal — the mystery of moving the CC then checking what the value is when it arrives – in fiat of course- live on the edge baby!)

    Anyway – this demonstrates that it is possible to create something from nothing … and make people believe it is valuable… even though it is backed by nothing and useless .. so really worthless.

    Diamonds are a close second

    • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

      that’s a good point…

      the values of diamonds are only supported by common psychological trickery that will not be persuasive as Creeping Collapse closes in…

      will diamond prices be an indicator of an imminent economic collapse?

      are diamond sales to the under 30 year old population plunging?

      I suspect that is happening…

    • Greg Machala says:

      How much value will bitcoin have without electricity? That is my standard of measure for worthiness.

    • zenny says:

      I just ordered a pizza with crypto Try that with Diamonds

      • Davidin100millionbilliontrillionzillionyears says:

        there was a comment here recently where the person admitted that he had bought a pizza quite a few years ago and paid one Bitcoin…

        I suspect Bitcoin is headed back to that “one pizza” worth…

Comments are closed.