Many people are concerned today with the low price of oil. Others are concerned about slowing or stopping COVID-19. Is there any way forward?
I gave a few hints regarding what is ahead in my last post, Economies won’t be able to recover after shutdowns. We live in a world with a self-organizing economy, made up of components such as businesses, customers, governments and interest rates. Our basic problem is a finite world problem. World population has outgrown its resource base.
Some sort of economy might work with the current resource base, but not the present economy. The COVID-19 crisis and the lockdowns used to try to contain the crisis push the economy farther along the route toward collapse. In this post, I suggest the possibility that some core parts of the world economy might temporarily be saved if they can be made to operate fairly independently of each other.
Let’s look at some parts of the problem:
[1] The world economy works like a pump.
To use a hand water pump, a person forces a lever down, and the desired output (water) appears. Human energy is required to power this pump. Other versions of water pumps use electricity, or burn gasoline or diesel. However the pump operates, there needs to be some form of energy input, for the desired output, water, to be produced.
An economy follows a similar pattern, except that the list of inputs and outputs is longer. With an economy, we need the following inputs, including energy inputs:
- Human energy
- Supplemental energy, such as burned biomass, animal power, electricity, and fossil fuel.
- Other resources, including fertile land, fresh water and raw materials of various kinds.
- Capital goods, built in previous cycles of the “pump.” These might include factories and machines to put into the factories.
- Structure and support provided by governments, including laws, roads and schools.
- Structure and support provided by business hierarchies and their innovations.
- A financial sector to provide a time-shifting function, so that goods and services with future value can be paid for (in actual physical output) over their expected lifetimes.
The output of the economy is goods and services, such as the following:
- Food and the ability to store and cook this food
- Other goods, such as homes, cars, trucks, televisions and diesel fuel
- Services such as education, healthcare and vacation travel
[2] Adequate growth in supplemental energy (such as fossil fuels) is important for keeping the economy operating properly.
The more human energy is applied to a manual water pump, the faster it can pump. The economy seems to work somewhat similarly.
If we look back historically, the world economy grew well when energy supplies were growing rapidly.
Figure 2. Average growth in energy consumption for 10 year periods, based on the estimates of Vaclav Smil from Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects (Appendix) together with BP Statistical Data for 1965 and subsequent.
Economic growth encompasses both population growth and rising standards of living. Figure 3 below takes the same information used in Figure 2 and divides it into (a) the portion underlying population growth, and (b) the portion of the energy supply growth available for improved standards of living.
Figure 3. Figure similar to Figure 2, except that energy devoted to population growth and growth in living standards are separated. An ellipse is added showing the recent growth in energy is primarily the result of China’s temporary growth in coal supplies.
Looking at Figure 3, we see that, historically, more than half of energy consumption growth has been associated with population growth. There is a reason for this connection: Food is an energy product for humans. Growing food requires a lot of energy, both energy from the sun and other energy. Today, a large share of this other energy is provided by diesel fuel, which is used to operate farm equipment and trucks.
Another thing we can see from Figure 3 is that peaks in living standards tend to go with good times for the economy; valleys tend to go with bad times. For example, the 1860 valley came just before the US Civil War. The 1930 valley came between World War I and World War II, at the time of the Great Depression. The 1991-2000 valley corresponds to the reduced energy consumption of many countries affiliated with the Soviet Union after its central government collapsed in 1991. All of these times of low energy growth were associated with low oil (and food) prices.
[3] Even before COVID-19 came along, the world’s economic pump was reaching limits. This can be seen in several different ways.
(a) China’s problems. China’s growth in coal production started lagging about 2012 (Figure 4). As long as its coal supply was growing rapidly (2002 to 2012), this rapidly growing source of inexpensive energy helped pull the world economy along.
Figure 4. China energy production by fuel, based on 2019 BP Statistical Review of World Energy data. “Other Ren” stands for “Renewables other than hydroelectric.” This category includes wind, solar, and other miscellaneous types, such as sawdust burned for electricity.
Once China needed to depend on importing more energy to keep its energy consumption growth, it began running into difficulties. China’s cement production started to fall in 2017. Effective January 1, 2018, China found it needed to shut down most of its recycling. Auto sales suddenly starting falling in 2018 as well, suggesting that the economy was not doing well.
(b) Too much world debt growth. It is possible to artificially raise economic growth by offering purchasers of goods and services debt that they cannot really afford to pay back, to use for the purchase of goods and services. Clearly, this was happening before the 2008-2009 recession, leading to debt defaults at that time. The rise in debt to GDP ratios since that time suggest that it is continuing to happen today. If the world economy stumbles, much debt is likely to become impossible to repay.
(c) The need to lower interest rates to keep the world economy growing. If the world economy is growing rapidly, as it was in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, the economy is able to grow in spite of increasing interest rates (Figure 5). After energy supply growth slowed about 1980 (Figure 2), interest rates have needed to fall (Figure 5) to hide the slowing energy consumption growth. In fact, interest rates are near zero now, similar to the way they were in the 1930s. Interest rates are now about as low as they can go, suggesting that the economy is reaching a limit.
Figure 5. 3-month and 10-year US Treasury rates. Graph provided FRED.
(d) Growing wage disparity. Increased technology is viewed positively, but if it leads to too much wage disparity, it can create huge problems by bringing the wages of non-elite workers below the level they need to support a reasonable lifestyle. Globalization adds to this problem. Income disparity is now at a peak, around the level of the late 1920s.
Figure 6. U. S. Income Shares of Top 1% and Top 0.1%, Wikipedia exhibit by Piketty and Saez.
(e) Excessively low commodity prices, even before COVID-19 problems. With the world’s wage disparity problem, many workers find themselves unable to afford homes, cars, and restaurant food. Their lack of purchasing power to buy these end products tends to keep commodity prices too low for producers to make an adequate profit. Oil prices were already too low for producers in 2019, before lockdowns associated with COVID-19 were added. Producers of oil will go out of business at this price. In fact, other commodity prices, including those of liquified natural gas, copper, and lithium are all too low for producers.
[4] The COVID-19 problem, and in fact epidemic problems in general, are not going away.
The publicity recently has been with respect to the COVID-19 virus and the need to “flatten the curve” of infected individuals, so that the health care system is not overwhelmed. The solutions offered revolve around social distancing. This includes reduced air travel and fewer large gatherings.
The problem with these solutions is that they make the world’s problems related to slow economic growth and too much debt a great deal worse. Growing businesses are built on economies of scale. Social distancing requirements lead to less efficient use of buildings and furnishings. For example, if a restaurant can only serve 25% as many customers as previously, its overhead quickly becomes too high, relative to the customers it can serve. It needs to lay off workers. Laid off workers add to the problem of low demand for goods like new homes, vehicles and gasoline. Indirectly, they push commodity prices of all kinds down, including oil prices.
If this were a two-week temporary problem, the situation might be tolerable, but the virus causing COVID-19 is not easily subdued. Many cases of COVID-19 seem to be infectious during their latency period. They may also be infectious after the illness seems to be over. Without an absurd amount of testing (plus much more accurate testing than seems to be really available), it is impossible to know whether a particular airline pilot for a plane bringing cargo is infectious. No one can tell whether a factory worker going back to work is really infectious, either. Citizens don’t understand the futility of trying to contain the virus; they expect that an ever-large share of our limited resources will be spent on beating back the virus.
To make matters worse, from what we know today, a person cannot count on life-long immunity after having the disease. A person who seems to be immune today, may not be immune next week or next year. Putting a badge on a person, showing that that person seems to be immune today, doesn’t tell you much about whether that person will be immune next week or next year. With all of these issues, it is pretty much impossible to get rid of COVID-19. We will likely need to learn to live with it, coming back year after year, perhaps in mutated form.
Even if we could somehow work around COVID-19’s problems, we can still expect to have other pandemic problems. The problem with epidemics has existed as long as humans have inhabited the earth. Antibiotics and other products of the fossil fuel age have allowed a temporary reprieve from some types of epidemics, but the overall problem has not disappeared. Our attention is toward COVID-19, but there are many other kinds of plant and animal epidemics we are facing. For example:
- Bananas are being attacked by a fungus in many parts of the world.
- African swine fever has killed tens of millions of pigs in China and elsewhere.
- Locusts are attacking crops in Africa.
- Human pathogens are constantly evolving, so that today’s antibiotics work much less well.
Even if COVID-19 does not do significant harm to the world economy, with all of the resource limits and economic problems we are encountering, certainly some future worldwide pandemic will.
[5] Historically, the way the world economy has been organized is as a large number of almost separate economies, each acting like a separate economic pump. Such an arrangement is much more stable than a single tightly networked world economy.
If a world economy is organized as a group of individual economies, with loose links to other economies, there are several advantages:
(a) Epidemics become less of a problem.
(b) Each economy has more control over its own future. It can create its own financial system if it desires. It can decide who owns what. It can decree that wages will be very equal, or not so equal.
(c) If population rises relative to resources in one economy, or if weather/climate takes a turn for the worse, that particular economy can collapse without the rest of the world’s economy collapsing. After a rest period, forests can regrow and soil fertility can improve, allowing a new start later.
(d) The world economy is in a sense much more stable, because it is not dependent upon “everything going correctly, everywhere.”
[6] The COVID-19 actions taken to date, together with the poor condition the economy was in previously, lead me to believe that the world economy is headed for a major reset.
Recently, we have experienced world leaders everywhere falling in line with the idea of shutting down major parts of their economies, to slow the spread of COVID-19. Citizens are worried about the illness and want to “do something.” In a way, however, the shutdowns make no sense at all:
(a) Potential for starvation. Any world leader should know that a large share of its population is living “on the edge.” People without savings cannot get along without income for for a long period, maybe not even a couple of weeks. Poor people are likely to be pushed toward starvation, unless somehow income to buy food is made available to these people. This is especially a problem for India and the poor countries of Africa. The loss of population in poor countries due to starvation is likely to be far higher than the 2% death rate expected from COVID-19.
(b) Potential for oil prices and other commodity prices to fall far too low for producers. With a large share of the world economy shut down, prices for many goods fall too low. As I am writing this, the WTI oil price is shown as $1.26 per barrel. Such a low price is simply absurd. It will cut off all production. If food cannot be sold in restaurants, its price may fall too low as well, causing producers to plow it under, rather than send it to market.
(c) Potential for huge debt defaults and huge loss of asset value. The financial system is built on promises. These promises can only be met if oil can continue to be pumped and goods made with fossil fuels can continue to be sold. Today’s economic system is threatening to fall apart. Even at this point in the epidemic, we are seeing a huge problem with oil prices. Other problems, such as problems with derivatives, are likely not far away.
The economy is a self-organizing system. If there really is the potential for some parts of the world economic system to be saved, while others are lost, I expect that the self-organizing nature of the system will work in this direction.
[7] A reset world economy will likely end up with “pieces” of today’s economy surviving, but within a very different framework.
There are clearly parts of the world economy that are not working:
- The financial system is way too large. There is too much debt, and asset prices are inflated based on very low interest rates.
- World population is way too high, relative to resources.
- Wage and wealth disparity is too great.
- Too much of income is going to the financial system, healthcare, education, entertainment, and travel.
- All of the connectivity of today’s world is leading to epidemics of many kinds traveling around the world.
Even with these problems, there may still be some core parts of the world economy that perhaps can be made to work. Each would have a smaller population than today. They would function much more independently than today, like mostly separate economic pumps. The nature of these economies will be different in different parts of the world.
In a less connected world, what we think of today as assets will likely have much less value. High rise buildings will be worth next to nothing, for example, because of their ability to transfer pathogens around. Public transportation will lose value for the same reason. Manufacturing that depends upon supply lines around the world will no longer work either. This means that manufacturing of computers, phones and today’s cars will likely no longer be possible. Products built locally will need to depend almost exclusively on local resources.
Pretty much everything that is debt today can be expected to default. Shares of stock will have little value. To try to save parts of the system, governments will need to take over assets that seem to have value such as farm land, mines, oil and gas wells, and electricity transmission lines. They will also likely need to take over banks, insurance companies and pension plans.
If oil products are available, governments may also need to make certain that farms, trucking companies and other essential users are able to get the fuel they need so that people can be fed. Water and sanitation are other systems that may need assistance so that they can continue to operate.
I expect that eventually, each separate economy will have its own currency. In nearly all cases, the currency will not be the same as today’s currency. The currency will be paid only to current workers in the economy, and it will only be usable for purchasing a limited range of goods made by the local economy.
[8] These are a few of my ideas regarding what might be ahead:
(a) There will be a shake-out of governmental organizations and intergovernmental organizations. Most intergovernmental organizations, such as the United Nations and European Union, will disappear. Many governments of countries may disappear, as well. Some may be overthrown. Others may collapse, in a manner similar to the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union in 1991. Governmental organizations take energy; if energy is scarce, they are dispensable.
(b) Some countries seem to have a sufficient range of resources that at least the core portion of them may be able to go forward, for a while, in a fairly modern state:
- United States
- Canada
- Russia
- China
- Iran
Big cities will likely become problematic in each of these locations, and populations will fall. Alaska and other very cold places may not be able to continue as part of the core, either.
(c) Countries, or even smaller units, will want to continue to limit trade and travel to other areas, for fear of contracting illnesses.
(d) Europe, especially, looks ripe for a big step back. Its fossil fuel resources tend to be depleted. There may be parts that can continue with the use of animal labor, if such animal labor can be found. Big protests and failing debt are likely by this summer in some areas, including Italy.
(e) Governments of the Middle Eastern countries and of Venezuela cannot continue long with very low oil prices. These countries are likely to see their governments overthrown, with a concurrent reduction in exports. Population will also fall, perhaps to the level before oil exploration.
(f) The making of physical goods will experience a major setback, starting immediately. Many supply chains are already broken. Medicines made in India and China are likely to start disappearing. Automobile manufacturing will depend on individual countries setting up their own manufacturing supply chains if the making of automobiles is to continue.
(g) The medical system will suffer a major setback from COVID-19 because no one will want to come to see their regular physician anymore, for fear of catching the disease. Education will likely become primarily the responsibility of families, with television or the internet perhaps providing some support. Universities will wither away. Music may continue, but drama (on television or elsewhere) will tend to disappear. Restaurants will never regain their popularity.
(h) It is possible that Quantitative Easing by many countries can temporarily prop up the prices of shares of stock and homes for several months, but eventually physical shortages of many goods can be expected. Food in particular is likely to be in short supply by spring a year from now. India and Africa may start seeing starvation much sooner, perhaps within weeks.
(i) History shows that when energy resources are not growing rapidly (see discussion of Figure 3), there tend to be wars and other conflicts. We should not be surprised if this happens again.
Conclusion
We seem to be reaching the limit of making our current global economic system work any longer. The only hope of partial salvation would seem to be if core parts of the world economy can be made to work in a more separate fashion for at least a few more years. In fact, oil and other fossil fuel production may continue, but for each country’s own use, with very limited trade.
There are likely to be big differences among economies around the world. For example, hunter-gathering may work for a few people, with the right skills, in some parts of the world. At the same time, more modern economies may exist elsewhere.
The new economy will have far fewer people and far less complexity. Each country can be expected to have its own currency, but this currency will likely be used only on a limited range of locally produced goods. Speculation in asset prices will no longer be a source of wealth.
It will be a very different world!
“…the pandemic has reached Chile against a backdrop of unresolved social tensions, and the factors that triggered last year’s explosion of protests are clearly reflected in the way the health crisis has played out.”
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/may/05/chile-coronavirus-healthcare-protest-inequality
“…Martín Guzmán, the economy minister [Argentina], says the country is effectively bankrupt. Pleading persistent recession and widespread poverty, he argues that Argentina cannot offer private bondholders anything for the next three years.”
https://www.ft.com/content/74f60bcc-8e1a-11ea-a8ec-961a33ba80aa
“Brazil’s political landscape has since become a minefield… Those tensions have hastened a world-leading plunge in the real, which smashed through its own record low on April 27. That drop stands to bring its own set of problems, as a weaker currency may fan inflation by making imports more expensive.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brazil-central-bank-historic-easing-080000664.html
I can’t image that extracting Brazil’s oil would be profitable at current prices. That must be at least part of the country’s problems.
How Dare Bolsonaro not follow the CDP!
“Indonesia’s economy has slowed faster than expected and food security issues are looming large as travel restrictions slow the flow of labour to rural regions.”
https://www.afr.com/world/asia/indonesia-food-shortage-fears-as-lockdown-hits-workers-growth-20200505-p54q12
I couldn’t read the linked article but I am trying to match this summary up with the reality I see. I can imagine that the cities would have problems if trucks are not allowed to deliver, but I live right in the middle of the rural food growing areas and I can’t understand what is intended.
There is no such thing as a “flow of labor to rural regions” such that could affect most agriculture in Indonesia. Local people work the fields that they live right next to. They get up in teh mornng and walk about 100 meters to work. An exception might be labor in Borneo where imported workers are sometimes brought in to work the palm oil plantations, but locals usually drive them off with machetes. So, no, not even there, really. Ther eis no such thing as a “flow of labor to rural regions”. Does the author think that Indnesian peasants live the off-season in urban condos?
Shaking my head, really.
You know, all my life I have noticed a strange phenomenon where I have see something reported in the media that I have some personal knowledge of and – without fail – the media report is completely wrong. In fact, the report will scarcely touch reality. Why is that?
Indeed. I’m from Northern Ireland, and I’ve been reading inaccurate rubbish about my homeland, my neighbours, and indeed, me, since I was a child.
From the article:
“Households on average spend about half their disposable income on non-discretionary items such as food and fuel. The Indonesian government, wary of the threat of social unrest, this week took extra steps to ensure supplies of staples such as rice.
“Although the rice harvest has so far met expectations, farmers have warned they are short on labour because of travel restrictions.”
“The government wants a rice stockpile of 5.62 million tons and would consider upping imports – as it has recently with garlic and sugar – it this goal is not realised. This would be more expensive than in previous years because of the near-cessation of passenger flights to carry cargo.
“The labour shortage is the lesser of two evils, according to Berly Martawardaya from the Indef Centre for Food, Energy and Sustainable Development.
“Just under half of Indonesia’s 270 million people live in rural areas, where access to quality healthcare is often limited.
“Calculating how long the rice stock could last in the event of an infected rural area in the face of insufficient hard currency to buy food from abroad is not a task any economist would enjoy,” Berly told The Australian Financial Review.”
…It is not the most cogent article but it does seem to suggest that the travel restrictions are posing a problem for rural labour.
A solitary example but I am friends with a young man from Kalimantan who is at college in Pontianak Uni but returns to his home village in the country to assist with harvests. He is under lockdown right now in Pontianak but planning to sneak back.
Here in the USA, prior to Covid 19 the Media was telling us how we had record low unemployment i.e. around 4%. When in fact about a third of the US population is out of the labor force. So if true how can you have 4% unemployment when close to 100 million out of 350 million are out of work. That’s easy because the main stream media doesn’t tell us that the Bureau for Labor Statistics doesn’t count people who are no longer looking for work because they gave up. The jobs weren’t there.
That’s a pretty major statistic to f ake. And yet they have been getting away with this for years.
Does anyone think they might be fa king the total death / Covid death etc… numbers —- given this is the biggest false flag in the history of the planet?
Trust … NOTHING.
All we have are a few brave doctors and epidemiologists willing to speak out (who are being silenced) — trust them before the MSM or the govts that is for sure.
From my fairly limited experience with actually going in and getting a truth … the MSM is mostly useless… even if they do not have an agenda they usually get it wrong… that’s probably because they almost always have an agenda so are not looking for truth — or they know that people have the attention span of a tweet — and are only interested in sound bites and catchy clicky headlines.
I don’t think this has been posted before:
Humanity is imprisoned by a killer pandemic. People are being arrested for surfing in the ocean and meditating in nature. Nations are collapsing. Hungry citizens are rioting for food. The media has generated so much confusion and fear that people are begging for salvation in a syringe. Billionaire patent owners are pushing for globally mandated vaccines. Anyone who refuses to be injected with experimental poisons will be prohibited from travel, education and work. No, this is not a synopsis for a new horror movie. This is our current reality.
https://plandemicmovie.com/
There is no killer pandemic. The safest place you can be… is outdoors in the sunshine.
So what have we been told to do? Stay indoors. Stay away from other people. Which reduces immune function. That way when everyone emerges they will get sick as their immune systems readjust.
Then the authorities will lock down again and no one will be allowed out ever again. For your own safety!
Yorchichan, yes, thank you.
Sounds like a case of predictive programming.
Doesn’t matter if these are real numbers or not – the lockdowns will NOT STOP:
https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106431762-1588737847718coronavirus_breakdown200506.jpg
These good times in India are almost over
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/77/KolkataFlowerMarket.JPG
“Alex” is funny today.
https://www.alexcartoon.com/index.cfm?cartoon_num=7669
Fantastic cartoon. Full of hidden meaning
Very appropriate for today’s problems. Parallel last year’s problems.
“Armed conflict, widespread displacement and climate change are pushing millions of people across West Africa, including the volatile Sahel region into hunger. Added to this toxic mix is COVID-19.”
https://www.voanews.com/africa/pandemic-likely-worsen-west-africas-looming-mass-hunger-wfp-warns
“Last Wednesday, aerial photographs captured a snaking queue, 4km long, of thousands of hungry residents from shantytowns outside Pretoria in South Africa awaiting food packages from a charity organisation.
“There was a chilling resonance with the images of 27 April 1994, 26 years ago, when citizens lined up to vote for the first time, and put Nelson Mandela into power.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/05/coronavirus-crisis-south-africans-lives-livelihoods
Not to mention the underlying problem of continued population growth, which leads to too many people in relationship to resources. COVID-19 threatens to partly fix this underlying trend of too many people relative to resources.
Somehow, the population problem (which has been aggravated by rich countries sending antibiotics, vaccines, and food aid) never gets mentioned in this story.
“Euro zone business activity almost ground to a halt last month as government-imposed lockdowns to stop the spread of the coronavirus forced factories to shut, shops and restaurants to close and recreational pursuits to cease, a survey showed.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eurozone-economy-pmi/euro-zone-business-activity-ground-to-near-halt-in-april-pmi-idUKKBN22I0XV
India even worse:
“Governments trying to contain the new coronavirus have shut down large parts of their country’s services sector, but none appears to have gone so far as India’s.
“According to data firm IHS Markit, the purchasing managers index for India’s services sector collapsed to 5.4 in April from 49.3 in March, the largest single-month drop in that measure of activity for any country at any time on record.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/indias-service-sector-sees-record-contraction-2020-05-06
Winston is in hell smiling as more Indians get ready to starve
India’s reaction is just bizarre, in my view. What possibly do they have to gain by doing this?
Especially when they have had time to observe the Bali situation … and see that not locking down is not the end of the world.
Poor Bali … zero tourism in a nearly 100% tourism dependent island…
Poor Queenstown … M Fast is in town dropping off a pile of non-perishable food for the ‘deplorables’… you know — the people who would be working and not queuing outside the farking sally ann to get a box of food so their kids don’t go hungry… if it weren’t for the Morrron ic policies of the Grade 3 Teacher.
“The U.S. services sector contracted for the first time in about a decade last month as the coronavirus pandemic brought economic activity in the country to a near-screeching halt, according to the Institute for Supply Management.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/ism-nonmanufacturing-index-april-2020.html
“Like a global tsunami, the coronavirus pandemic has caused a huge loss of life and taken a massive economic toll. In the US economy, skyrocketing unemployment is the most-visible sign of the devastation: almost overnight, at least 30 million workers lost their jobs…
“The April employment report, due out Friday, is expected to show the unemployment rate soaring into double digits, perhaps as high as 20 percent, far surpassing the worst of the global financial crisis and reaching levels not seen since the Great Depression last century.”
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/1913504/grim-and-getting-worse-us-set-for-historic-unemployment-surge
“Emptied out malls and hotels across the U.S. have triggered an unprecedented surge in requests for payment relief on commercial mortgage-backed securities, an early sign of a pandemic-induced real estate crisis.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-05-05/workout-specialists-brace-for-career-worst-property-debt-crash
Reminds me of when I took something apart as a child, and couldn’t get it all back together: the politicians and scientific advisors (silo-thinkers) thought the were just pressing ‘Pause’ and in fact it was ‘Detonate’!
Ordering online we have reached a new stage: ‘Thanks for your order, it’s important to us
and we really will try to fulfill it sometime’!
Lots of supply and courier difficulties must be building up…..
I used to do that too! Didn’t become an engineer… just enjoyed deconstructing things and then walking away! Maybe a career in demolitions was always waiting with open arms and never realised?
I don’t think we’ve experienced the full force of supply chain break down yet. Not even close… but it’s coming, even as services pick up again. After all… behind the scenes everything relies on individuals amnning their posts. A lot of those individuals are highly trained specialists and not easily replaceable.
I have noticed an uptick in hack attack campaigns – even the service I use (Ghost) was used to mine some crypto on their servers. Thankfully they left the sensitive info alone even though they had full access to it.
As things break down further I see more of this oportunistic (massively automated) criminal activity taking place. That’s where next level AI comes in and more and more people will be sidelined until machines are left talking to themsleves.
Didn’t become an engineer… just enjoyed deconstructing things and then walking away!
Joined the US Military?
There’s a career in Black Opps for anyone who likes taking down skyscrapers
These stories talk about pandemic-induced. They really should talk about “induced by reaction to pandemic.”
Yes that is how I prefer to rephrase these headlines…. caused by the Covid Lockdowns… not by Covid
“Inflation in the wealthiest countries has collapsed at the fastest pace since the financial crisis, as the coronavirus outbreak sinks the world into the deepest recession for almost a century.
“The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said annual growth in the price of goods and services across the group of 37 advanced countries slowed significantly in March as Covid-19 brought business and social activity to a near standstill.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/05/inflation-collapses-world-coronavirus-pandemic-global-economy-business-great-depression-recession
“The global economy is looking at a difficult climb back to levels seen before the coronavirus pandemic as countries are slowly start to loosen containment measures, according to OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-05/don-t-expect-global-economy-to-bounce-back-quickly-boone-says
Too little demand!
End of the World Preparations….
M Fast and I bought an antique phonograph a few years ago and a bunch of scratchy records… candlelight … a glass of wine (or two)…. a slow spin … a farewell kiss…. a handful of Fentanyl (Jacinda… do the right thing and all is forgiven)…. and adios….
Working on the play list …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RK_8dnfj-Ng
Pooosy!
I wouldn’t miss the end of the world… for the end of the world.
I’m hanging around until I have a zombie chewing at my ankles. And at that point I’m half expecting a siren to sound and the curtains to pull back revealing a huge crowd applauding the spectacle and saying it was all a test and bit of a joke. No hard feelings.
I’d like to hang around to see nature recover, all the grass grow long, weeds growing everywhere, mammals returning to the cities. Presumably the keepers will release the wolves, bears, lynx and other big cats before they depart. But the cities at least will be run by well-armed gangs whose idea of fun will be everybody else’s idea of hell.
I love post-apocalyptic imagery! Sad and hopeful. Nostalgia and green shoots!
So many movies and games entertain with these ideas. Some take pictures or visit real life abandoned areas like Chernobil, Fukushima, old industrial sites where nature rushes back in as soon as the humans leave.
If collapse continues we’ll see a lot more areas recieve the same treatment much like China’s ghost cities.
That said … there is beauty in a stark… gray … depressing… apocalyptic scene:
https://viewerscommentary.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/the-road-cityscape.jpg
http://assets.signature-reads.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/the-road.jpg
However if it’s your world — maybe not so….
Wouldn’t that be something… death is simply the end of your performance — you take a bow….
Might as well go out in a blaze of glory with a big fat smile on your face!
But yeah… The Hunger Games, The purge, The Walking Dead, and The Hunt all rolled into one coming to a town near you at some point… probably, maybe.
I mean… you wanted entertainment right?
Hate to leave that massive locker full of ammo behind…. worst (best?) case scenario is we down the Fenties… splash petrol all over the place and put the ammo in one room… then flick a match before going into the perma zone….
Would be a perfect way to end it if there are bad guys trying to get in… burn up all the food too — flip them a finger through the upper floor window while they stand back watching the flames dance
Collaps of civilization soon
Nah… Space Force to the Rescue!!
But first… fake skirmish with China, Iran, Venezuela.
Then… apparently… we’re mining the moon!
Not a joke. Deals done.
An interesting take on the Asian flu of 1957, in the USA
Elvis Was King, Ike Was President, and 116,000 Americans Died in a Pandemic
https://www.aier.org/article/elvis-was-king-ike-was-president-and-116000-americans-died-in-a-pandemic/
…It was first reported in Singapore in February 1957, Hong Kong in April 1957, and in coastal cities in the United States in summer 1957. The estimated number of deaths was 1.1 million worldwide and 116,000 in the United States.
…Like the current pandemic, there was a demographic pattern to the deaths. It hit the elderly population with heart and lung disease. In a frightening twist, the virus could also be fatal for pregnant women. The infection rate was probably even higher than the Spanish flu of 1918 (675,000 Americans died from this), but this lowered the overall case fatality rate to 0.67%. A vaccine became available in late 1957 but was not widely distributed.
…What’s remarkable when we look back at this year, nothing was shut down. Restaurants, schools, theaters, sporting events, travel – everything continued without interruption. Without a 24-hour news cycle with thousands of news agencies and a billion websites hungry for traffic, mostly people paid no attention other than to keep basic hygiene. It was covered in the press as a medical problem. The notion that there was a political solution never occurred to anyone.
…The New York Times had some but not much coverage…
How sane! What’s the difference?
Pharmaceutical companies were not so powerful and greedy, and didn’t have the ambition to keep everyone medicated all the time; and people weren’t so weak.
Of course, then the days of 20% of deaths being caused by TB, cuts and blisters killing you, etc, and no antibiotics being available, were in living memory for all adults, so they didn’t have the exaggerated and cowardly ‘Keep me safer than safe’ mentality of today.
Much more a world of ‘Get on with it and don’t whine!’.
Most adults had experienced the real horrors of total war, too, which alters one’s perspective on life and death considerably.
So true. I see alot of weak domesticated people today. Ripe to be preyed on by the wolves and vultures.
Getting you leg hacked off was merely a flesh wound back in the day. Stiff upper lip and all that.
Today it’s… how dare you call me names. I’m off to my safespace.
This was the 1957-1958 H2N2 flu pandemic. According to UN 2019 estimates, the US population in 2020 is 1.862 times as high as it was in 1957. The world population is 2.713 times as high as was in 1957. So relative to today’s population, we would expect 3.0 million deaths worldwide and 216,000 deaths in the US. But nothing was shut down.
So far, we have seem 29,423 deaths in the US and 257,000 deaths worldwide from COVID-19.
So maybe in some ways similar, but different.
Supposedly 9 million tabacco related deaths every year (mostly in china) and I don’t see anyone with their hair on fire screaming for the closure of the tobacco factories.
Smoking is not scary like a virus… you can’t get lung cancer from touching a smoker … and they are already banned from public places….
So smoking could not be use for the CDP.
I recall similar from the GFC:
“As households were warned to brace themselves for the worst recession in living memory, the motor industry revealed that sales of new cars plummeted by 97 per cent in April to the lowest level since 1946.
“The scale of the crisis affecting the industry is highlighted by this striking photograph of an overflowing car storage facility at the Upper Heyford airbase near Bicester, Oxfordshire.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8290433/Old-RAF-airbase-packed-35m-worth-cars-wants-amid-covid-19-crisis.html
And the merchants shall weep etc.
“There are gluts of all shapes and kinds forming in the United States nowadays, a testament to the scope of the economic pain the coronavirus is inflicting.
“Slaughterhouses are killing and tossing out thousands of pigs a day, dairy farmers are pouring away milk, oil sellers were paying buyers recently to take barrels off their hands, and now, brand-new cars are being left adrift at sea for days.”
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/05/05/business/corporate-business/us-auto-market-glut/#.XrJlSuDTU0M
Thus spake the Prophet Gail, and it came to pass……
We can’t escape the cycles of civilization, the same ever since mass- commerce was invented.
The buyers need to afford the output of the economy, or the economy hits a huge obstacle: too low commodity prices. Also, big gluts of unaffordable goods build up.
Coronavirus Mutates Into Now-Dominant, More Contagious Form As Doctors Ponder ‘East Coast vs. West Coast’ Strains
“We cannot afford to be blindsided…”
= Frankenstein Virus — MUST lockdown. Cannot unlock. Fear Fear Fear.
More siren!!! (wanna bet you won’t see that on Saturday Night Live)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ciAl8Bynjs
The religious services and the taxi drivers after coronavirus in Slovakia:
https://domov.sme.sk/g/158212/koronavirus-na-slovensku-spustila-sa-druha-a-tretia-faza-uvolnovania-opatreni-6-maj-2020?gref=https%3A%2F%2Fdomov.sme.sk%2Fc%2F22398236%2Fkoronavirus-na-slovensku-otvorili-dalsie-obchody-fotogaleria.html&list=1
I expect taxis cost more, with this level of service.
Retail Landlords Reel as Big Luxury Brands Threaten to Close Stores if Rents Aren’t Slashed
A source who is familiar with the situation told me that some of the luxury brands have made their respective landlords a brutal ultimatum: either reduce the rent by 75% or tie it intrinsically to the sales generated by the store, which right now is essentially zero.
Otherwise, they will shut the shop.
https://wolfstreet.com/2020/05/05/retail-landlords-reel-as-big-luxury-brands-threaten-to-close-stores-if-rents-arent-slashed/
What’s not to like? BAU sure is a tough sumbitch… he’s take heavy heavy blows to the head and body yet he doesn’t got to his knees… Something MUST give here… what we need is for the el d ers to kick him in the balls….
Harry … can you serenade FE with more wonderful news…
Yes, no doubt and that is to be expected. Now factor in how many stores and businesses are wondering if this is the first of MANY lockdowns to come and can they survive as a business with bills to pay and NO customers?
The Greatest Depression has arrived. But watch how the US mainstream media will spin it as a recession.
The second wave will be the killer wave. It will break everyone’s back (and spirit).
Landlords are going to have to take a whole lot less rent, or none at all. This is not good for paying mortgages.
Some LL are getting ahead of the curve and recognizing this is not going to return to normal — and they are unloading on those who believe in the fable of the V-recovery.
Notice how your chains are being pulled… you get the hope message from Trump:
US President Donald Trump has confirmed the White House coronavirus task force will be winding down, with Vice-President Mike Pence suggesting it could be disbanded within weeks.
And the earlier Cuomo how dare you suggest we unlock….
This is from PR101… keep the sheeple hopeful that the end is near — even though it isn’t… confuse them… up is down down is up … bewilder them…
This is an effective way to prevent them from revolting…
The general public pretty much everywhere are already excercising their right to be out and about in the sunshine. Funny how the sun does that to people. makes them kinda crazy. They all want to run to the beaches and parks and run around with their kids without a care in the world.
As it should be. Especially since you can’t “catch” viruses out in the sunshine. Immediately zapped by ultraviolet light. Why do you think we run packages and other stuff under ultraviolet light on conveyor belts etc?
Immune systems at peak when out and about in the sun. Vitamin d, fruit juice, all that good stuff.
The police state cops can try and arrest thousands of people at a time. Good luck with that! And the courts will throw out all the summonses. No way they can process that many cases of disobedience especially for something as trivial as standing too close to each other.
I had to find a paper bag to hyperventilate after reading this …. I was so excited I almost passed out. Do you know how hard it is to find a paper bag in a sea of plastic!!!
Subprime Auto Loans Already Exploded in Pre-Covid-19 Good Times. With 30 Million Unemployed, Even Prime Loans Will Sour
“Delinquencies will now explode through the ceiling”
In April, specialized subprime lenders started reporting surging delinquencies and plunging new business.
Among the first was Credit Acceptance Corp [CACC] when it disclosed in an SEC filing on April 20 that it was getting hit due to the sudden job losses, as consumers were “delaying payments or re-allocating resources, leading to a significant decrease in our realized collections.”
It complained of a sudden drop in new business as consumer demand for vehicles fizzled. And this toxic mix of the surging delinquencies and dropping new business, it warned, “could cause a material adverse effect on our financial position, liquidity, and results of operations.”
https://wolfstreet.com/2020/05/05/subprime-auto-loans-already-exploded-in-pre-covid-19-good-times-now-come-30-plus-million-unemployed-and-even-prime-loans-will-sour/
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/US-auto-loan-deliquencies-dollars-2020-q1.png
Opportunity is in your cards! Have you considered a career in car repo? The fast and furious school of car repo can help you realize your dreams with a lucrative career in car repo. (course material presented online due to COVID 19 (AHHHH RUN AWAY)).
The next quarter will likely be a whole lot worse. I wonder how much repossessed autos will sell for in such a market.
The news is coming so fast and furious I may as well just keep the bag on all day
https://revolutionaryradar.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/paper-bag-over-head.png
https://wolfstreet.com/2020/05/06/service-sector-falls-off-cliff-in-the-eurozone-manufacturing-not-far-behind/
http://images.clipartpanda.com/laughing-smiley-face-clip-art-dc6y7qKc9.gif
China … domestic flights have increased…
Ghost Towns
Ghost Flights?
https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2020/05/05/wheres-the-beef-nearly-20-of-wendys-have-run-out-of-beef/
“Nearly one-fifth of Wendy’s U.S. restaurants have run out of beef, according to a study by a Wall Street analyst.
James Rutherford, an analyst with Stephen Inc, said in a note recently that 1,043 Wendy’s restaurants, around 18 percent of the U.S. total, have listed beef items as out of stock.”
just the tip of the proverbial iceberg which the economy is crashing into even now…
if countries run out of meat, what goes next?
… as I reach for the paper bag again 🙂
huh, Americans:
https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/05/05/video-kentucky-woman-wears-mask-hole-make-easier-breathe/
“A Kentucky woman was caught on cell phone video wearing a mask with a hole cut it in because she claimed it made it “easier to breathe.”…”
“Well, since we have to wear them and it makes it hard to breathe, this makes it a lot easier to breathe,” she replies.
The first thing that struck my mind – it seems air travel, especially international may not be coming back anytime soon…..
Coronavirus Mutates Into Now-Dominant, More Contagious Form As Doctors Ponder ‘East Coast vs. West Coast’ Strains
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/coronavirus-mutates-now-dominant-more-contagious-form-doctors-ponder-east-coast-vs-west
East-West. One of my favorites
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jz0MhWZ9MJI
Might as well, since it appears we still don’t have a handle on this.
There are clearly some big difference between the level of infections relative to population in East Asia (including Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, So. Korea, and other areas) and the level of infections of Europe and the Northeastern US. I was thinking that masks might have been the difference. It could also be different strains.
I am not sure that the authors here have proven very much, but I didn’t really try to read the academic paper. One commenter notes that faster transmissibility and virulence don’t necessarily go together. The result is more often the opposite. If what these researchers are saying is true, we should see more papers laying out the situation more clearly.
“One commenter notes that faster transmissibility and virulence don’t necessarily go together. The result is more often the opposite.”
that’s a good point not to miss…
it could be mutating to more infectious/less fatal…
also, relative to East Asia, the comorbidities probably are much higher in the European and American populations…
this probably explains the much higher deaths above expected deaths in recent weeks in the UK and France and Italy and the NY/NJ area…
this is where it’s important to acknowledge that these excess deaths are C19 related deaths… and that word “related” is quite important and its meaning should not be overlooked…
C19 “related” deaths…
perhaps there is a different strain in those East Asia countries, but poorer overall health in the west and the resulting comorbidities are also a big factor…
yes more scary headlines…
You’d think the world would be half dead and lying on the streets waiting to die… it isn’t — well apparently it is in NYC — so they say — but everywhere else nope.
HK has not covid + for many days now. Fare more dense than NYC. Funny that
I saw a couple of comments that suggested that the majority of those East Asians are more hygienic than those NYC dwellers…
I haven’t been on a NYC subway in many years, but the thought of riding on one again, and I mean even in 2019 or prior, is a thought about how unsanitary they likely are…
perhaps someone who has been to both HK and NYC can fill in the gaps here…
there are cultural differences throughout the world, and I suspect that one difference is that a big swath of Americans are less into cleanliness…
if anyone has ever seen how dirty much of our paper money is, that might be a clue…
What the fark does any of this have to do with cleanliness?
Are you talking about bacteria and viruses? The bacteria that you’ve come into contact with your whole life? And that makes up most of your organism – your biome? Mostly friendly… symbiotic relationship – and some unfriendly but usually not much of a problem unless you have a compromised immune system i.e. you’re very old and sick.
Do you mean BO? Which is smelly bacteria and relatively easily dealt with using aluminum laced deoderants? Or snot covered surfaces where everyone has spread their love to everyone else via their fingers? But again… no one makes a big deal out of unless one is an extreme germaphobe? How could you ever use public toilets again? Or public touch screens for that matter?
Are you going to wear a mask and gloves for the rest of your life because a goblin like Fauci tell you to?
We live in a world of germs. We’re made of them too. Even fungus that helps us break down undigested food in our gut. Sometimes it can get out of balance usually caused by the introduction of toxins – many being medical in nature. But balance can ususally be restored with a little bit of wisdom.
Or do you really think that the whole world needs to go digital… because the bugs are out to get you?
Face coverings.
BTW – the british underground stinks of stale p iss… a vile place
a daft statement that I know to be made up just for ‘sound effect’ (re london underground),
Whether you ‘like’ the underground is another matter, most people don’t. I don’t either.
but 99.999% of the time and places, even then, it doesnt smell of urine,
It just smells of what it is—an underground railway line. A distinctive smell
there are bound to be isolated incidents ( just like anywhere else)
but a statement like that is useful because it means that someone is prepared to spout off nonsense about anything to the same purpose.—just for ‘noisy effect’
That helps no end when trying to decide whether a ‘questionable’ statement is true or not–chances are it isn’t
The first time I visited London I was disgusted by the stale pi ss that I smelled in the subway.
And no, subways do not have to smell of stale p iss. The HK subway does not. Singapore does not. Moscow does not. Tokyo does not.
Only the London subway.
I can still remember that stale pi ss stench. And having to wait and smell the stench because the trains were not every few minutes like Hong Kong.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D5JOas9WsAAsGfS.jpg
i do enjoy (in a perverted sense) the way a comment is answered by making up something that wasn’t in the previous comment.
I’ve noticed that that happens regularly–almost always, as if flounderng around to put words together contentious in an adult manner
At no point did I say that subways ‘have’ to smell like that. (or that it was Churchill’s fault)
Subways smell of what they are, they certainly do not smell of urine. You might have had one ‘bad’ experience xx years ago—perfectly possible. Saying they smell that way now, all the time is a nonsense
Try to bear in mind that London subways were the first to be built. Others followed maybe a century later and learned better ways to do it. London underground is stuck with a 170 year old central system.
Maybe you are just used to the smell norm?
It’s like a hobo who pis ses himself and has no other clothes or access to a shower — he just gets used to the smell…
The London subways stinks of urine… not fresh urine… it’s that stink of urine that has been accumulating for weeks….
repeating stuff i know to be untrue just reinforces my certainty in other respects and other subjects, where i might have had self doubts and listened to ‘reasoned debate.’
constant repetition on the underground thing is more useful than you have been aware, laughable though
if i were you I would demand a refund from those con artists who sold you that residential course at that Tibetan monastery.
Hey maybe normies think stale ur ine is what roses smell like… did it smell like roses?
It’s never reported how many of the British dead were waddling fatties – most of the population are obese in some way, it can be quite horrifying in the summer but amusing as they puff along in the heat.
Being fat increases a person’s chance of death from covid-19 ten times, but it isn’t just fatties at increased risk, it’s anyone with an unhealthy diet.
Pretty obvious really.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkW2qD6gjzI
Not having flour in the supermarkets is a lucky break. If only all the other wheat containing products were to take a leave of absence the population would be far healthier for it.
Good to see the doctor raise the point that those working in the health sector eat just as badly as everyone else, and therefore suffer the same chronic diseases related to diet that everyone else gets. Implication being, the more unhealthy ones will be susceptible to Covid 19, but he was cut off before saying that – presumably that is where he was headed.
Greens and beans my friend… greens and beans.
Another reason why there should be no lockdowns.
https://vid.alarabiya.net/images/2014/08/17/854edffa-e834-43fd-8a00-8ba8b1d6a15a/854edffa-e834-43fd-8a00-8ba8b1d6a15a_16x9_788x442.jpg
Chris Martenson has some good information on the possibility of mutation of nCOV his video today:
https://youtu.be/hFCMZZKFE4w
Chris Martenson?
Ignored.
Isn’t that the site that about 4 years ago banned FE because he questioned their statements that renewable energy was our saviour?
Martenson in red — FE in white
http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1155838/penaltyy.gif
FE white – Martenson black
https://cdn0.vox-cdn.com/assets/4567325/cuphit.gif
FE Red – Martenson White (btw this was a career ending hit — faced with nothing to do, Chris turned to hawking solar panels)
http://talkhockey.ca/wp-content/uploads/Kariya-Goal2894.gif
Satisfying!
I honestly wish for the same body slamming bone crunching treatment on alllll those that jumped on this bandwagon to peddle their products and services. There’s being an entrepreneur and there’s being an outright opportunistic scumbag!
Other peddlers that got it totally wrong and never apologised…
Mike Adams – the health ranger! – predicted millions of deaths according to his computer models – shamed on air by the likes of Steve Pieczenick but still wouldn’t back down.
Infowars and many others ramped up the peddling of expensive supplements and storable food based on the idea that a bioweapon that eats your testicles had been released!
But worst of all… Big Pharma running this scam to sell vaccines and chip the human populace like cattle. And all the other companies rushing to come up with miracle cures – all planned well ahead of time.
https://i.makeagif.com/media/8-05-2015/uo-5P7.gif
“The first thing that struck my mind – it seems air travel, especially international may not be coming back anytime soon…..”
unlike the movie line “if you build it, they will come”…
many/most businesses will try to “reopen” within the next few weeks/months…
the doors will be open, but will the customers come?
recent reports from China, which is on the leading edge of the lockdown/reopen curve, are showing that after reopening, demand stays very low…
People are like sheep. No really.. they act exactly the same when in large groups. Once you reach a tipping point… you get a cascade as no one wants to be left behind looking like a total spaz. Something to do with the laws of physics I believe. Possibly infecting the laws of large populations of carbon based life forms.
Of course.. you will always get the odd idiot (or smart one) that doesn’t follow the herd but eventually they too succumb.
People will lose their fear of everything when the time comes. The floodgates will open because people will have nothing to lose. They’ll be outdoors more than ever roasting their neighbours on spits and singing songs about how timid they were in the old days.
This is what Freud and his nephew Bernays discovered…. and once they understood this… the E lde rs applied this knowledge and created a global sheep farm (they called it a cattle farm but same same)….
We are told these methods are applied to advertising… war… politics… but never are we told that they are coupled with control of finance and the media to create an airtight global empire….
Truly we have nothing left to lose. The level of total control is astonishing. All they did was snap their fingers and most people obeyed without question. They had been programmed their whole life waiting for this moment.
Time for an uprising. May it be glorious. And may the best carbon based life form inherit the earth. Let the games begin!
I think I saw a survey where nearly 70% support the lockdowns… when the second wave hits that number will jump
A few stray bullets will convince the others that the lockdowns are necessary
This is a crucial presentation – Simon is one of the people who oppose the NZ lockdowns:
Thanks! Dr. Thornley makes some reasonable points. For example, a harsher shutdown in in New Zealand than Australia does not produce a faster reduction in cases.
I think his point about the low mortality rate in New Zealand would be stronger if he actually had some antibody tests to show how many were really infected.
I am hoping that at least some people will start thinking about the situation more clearly.
In the near future if you dissent or attempt to subvert you will be a target…. you might end up dead.
It’s coming…..
Thank God I am not living in a dictatorial hellhole like New Zealand.
yes, perhaps those of us who don’t live in NZ should pause to thank all of the numerous man-made gods…
I was referring to the US. But this will be the game plan everywhere I suspect
Jacinda the Great Mother (women leaders do COVID management so much better, says The Guardian) loves her people so much she is forced to be very, very strict with them – but it’s all Love…..
She learned that in Grade 3 teaching school
“The US Federal Reserve has claimed the rise of Nazism in Germany was due to the 1918 influenza pandemic– historical revisionism that may seek to absolve the Fed from responsibility for the fallout from its own disastrous policies.
“Influenza deaths during the 1918-1920 pandemic triggered “long-term societal changes” that led Germans to vote for Hitler en masse in 1933, New York Fed economist Kristian Blickle claims in a paper published with the Fed this month. Confusing correlation with causation on such a grand scale would get the average data scientist laughed out of a lecture hall, but Blickle works for the Fed, so his conclusions were reprinted with a straight face in the Wall Street Journal on Monday.
“Attempting to tie the rise of Nazism to a pandemic that happened over a decade before that rise is a tall order, but the Fed has good reason to make the effort. The same hyperinflation that made Germany fertile ground for the rise of Hitler is again looming on the horizon, thanks to the de facto central bank’s decision to pour trillions of dollars into Wall Street and US corporations after the government response to the coronavirus pandemic sent the economy into a death spiral months ago.”
I like this girl’s writings, but she is (must be) a populist. In case usd goes through the roof, it won’t be because of wall street’s money but because of main street’s, I guess
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/487844-hitler-coronavirus-fed-excuses-history/
The world was dealing first with peak coal in the UK at the time of WWI. Peak coal was associated with a lot of wage and wealth disparity (sort of like now). About that time both war and the pandemic are along.
Then, during the 1920s, mechanization took many agricultural jobs away, and made mechanized farms much more productive than unmechanized ones. This created a lot of wage and wealth disparity. This led to a whole lot more wage and wealth disparity.
After limping along during the depression (with lots of food gluts because people could not afford the food being raised), Germany started hitting peak hard coal at the time of World War II.
All of these things look a lot like the problems we are having now. Prices are too low for energy products and food, because of too much wage and wealth disparity.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2018/10/52-peak-coal-in-uk-and-germany-led-to-world-wars.png
Just prior to WW1, both Germany and the UK were transitioning their navies from coal to oil fuelled. Oil had been found in the Middle East and Germany were working on building a railroad from Berlin to Baghdad to bring that oil to Germany. The British government wanted that oil for themselves, which gave them motivation to go to war against Germany.
There was more to it than just oil (such as the desire on the part of the German Kaiser for a greater empire, as well as other imperial powers of Europe wanting the same for themselves), but oil had a significant role to play. Significant enough that WW1 could be considered to be the first oil war.
A lot of people talk about inequality. The notion of wealth disparity caused by scarcity/technology/complexity is unfamiliar to them. If there is a way to label the issue differently so that it makes more sense of “inequality” to the masses, it sure would help.
Good point!
I came across this years ago on MIT’s TECHNOLOGY REVIEW website. STEM workers seem to be aware that technology itself might be driving inequality.
https://www.technologyreview.com/2014/10/21/170679/technology-and-inequality/
https://www.technologyreview.com/2014/10/21/170679/technology-and-inequality/
I think different special interest groups see how technology can be used to drive inequality, few will say that technology itself is causing inequality. They are more likely to blame prejudice.
Thanks!
This is actually very funny — because I know loads of people (normies) who will now be parroting ‘The illness is death’
The Lockdowns Must Continue Otherwise It’s Murder
Reporter: “These are regular people who are not getting a paycheck and they’re saying that they don’t have time to wait for all of this testing and they need to get back to work in order to feed their families. Their savings are running out, they don’t have another week, they’re not getting answers, so their point is the cure can’t be worse than the illness itself, what is you’re response to them?
Gov. Cuomo: The illness is death, what is worse than death?
https://cbs6albany.com/news/coronavirus/cuomo-tells-protesters-to-get-essential-jobs-says-economic-hardship-doesnt-equal-death
The natives are going to start getting restless over this CDP….. desperation is setting in …
We can already see what the response is going to be … you want to murder your neighbour by insisting on breaking quarantine? We will deal with you like we would any other murderer. We will shoot you dead.
And most people will be cheering on the cops and soldiers as they shoot dead the murderers.
It’s coming….
“We can already see what the response is going to be … you want to murder your neighbour by insisting on breaking quarantine? We will deal with you like we would any other murderer. We will shoot you dead.”‘
Fast, this just crossed my mind today as I thought about the mandatory mask requirements for my area of residence. We must be injecting the same brand of bleach into our veins to beat covid-19. If they classify someone without a mask as someone who’s a threat to the lives of others, what is going to stop them from using lethal force to protect the public?
We’re not there yet, but since politicians can get the public to believe anything now, they could convince them that the lockdowns are lasting as long as they are because some selfish, irresponsible people are still spreading the Wuhan Flu.
Some parts of the law and order are being suspended because of covid-19. If some courts can’t open and lawyers can’t come and see a defendant, that defendant is at the mercy of politicians and government bureaucrats. We’ve already seen them release people from prison sentences over fears of covid-19…what will stop The-Powers-That-Be from making other changes? If they delay hearing and trials..doesn’t that mean law and order, in the U.S. at least,(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speedy_trial)
…will break down soon if things don’t get back to normal?
https://www.law.com/2020/03/10/as-coronavirus-spreads-some-courts-shutter-others-carry-on/?slreturn=20200405185207
From my experience with Covid… there is no talking sense to these fanatics…. it’s like trying to show a greenie that an EV is charged using coal….
Actually even more difficult because FEAR is involved….
This is a very dangerous situation. It is not far fetched to suggest that anyone who refuses to wear a mask could be severely beaten – or even killed.
I have attempted to point out to a few people that this will tip into famine shortly and global economic collapse … they do not care (or they do not believe that)… they are rabid… one mate of 20 years has lashed out at me basically doing a Cuomo on me… I am supporting mass murder for selfish reasons apparently….
Extinction Humans = GOOD!
I get the same treatment for questioning the official narrative and not going along with the prison training!
By the way… have you seen the new doc that blows the greenie deception wide open? Even if Mr Moore is involved and they still push depopulation it may change a few attitudes. Of course the left are trying to get it banned because that’s their response to everything they don’t like.
Yes that is an outstanding documentary.
We now need one on g w.
It has to be made by a greenie though … otherwise the g w will not watch it.
If Leo would narrate that would get them all watching!
Oh to be in the room as the Green Family sits down to watch Leo’s blockbuster g w movie…. and watch their jaws drop as he exposing the gigantic fra ud.
The part where Al Gore is ridiculed for promoting g w then making many millions off of it (like he did with renewables …. ) would be the BEST PART!
A mo on expose would also be very entertaining… if the PTB want to completely blow the minds of the sheeple and distract them they’d release a series of exposes (9-11… JFK… how they gassed women and children in Syria and blamed Assad — that could be a comedy!…. I am sure there are so many others… they could have an entire series on false flag opps!!!)
Wonderful! Wonderful!
Where do I sign up for the Leo Narrator Kickstarter campaign! I’m sure he’d be up for it cos money is involved. Maybe drag his buddy Joachin Phoenix along for the ride with his save the cows spiel!
But if you really want the gold medal… I suggest you approach AOC. She’ll sell her soul for any old malarky just to remain relevant.
I have full confidence that you can pull this off FE. I will gladly support any campaign that makes leftist heads explode like the fourth of july!
God bless Globbly Wobbly and Super Space Force!!
Interesting headline with a look behind the headline.
“Scientist Whose Doomsday Models Sparked Global Lockdown Resigns After Breaking Quarantine To Bang Married Lover.” “Prof Ferguson allowed the woman to visit him at home during the lockdown while lecturing the public on the need for strict social distancing.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/exclusive-government-scientist-neil-ferguson-resigns-breaking/
We can skip the “tsk, tsk.” and think about social mores. These are two very talented people, she claims to be in an open marriage, so it was really one housefold, etc., etc.
Many of the elites have decided that social convention is so yesterday, we are liberated human beings. Maybe so intellectually, but at a base level her husband contacted the disease, where from is not mentioned.
I am not an immunologist so take this for what it is worth. Close intimate contact with exchange of bodily fluids by necessity gives a pathway for pathogens from one to another. It would not be unreasonable to assume that two people living as one develop similar pathogens and similar resistances to those pathogens. Clans and separate territories accomplish much the same thing along with physical barriers – Amerindians come to mine.
We have old taboos against “French kissing,” multiple sexual partners. Different cultures had different ideas on personal space. We also have old taboos about “them” vs “us.” Perhaps our immunological systems can only fight so many battles at once, a clan could be expected to have similar pathogens, similar resistances. A simple myth, a taboo is easier to teach than lengthy discourse.
Gail mentioned the tendency for societies to become more conservative in times of stress; we are stressed, there could be good biological reasons for being conservative. For a while the world went global, we were all to become netzens, one world. Life evolved as it did because it basically worked, where it didn’t those groups are no longer with us. It may be that what we are doing doesn’t work and can’t be made to work.
Dennis L.
This is nothing new. The elite have always lived decadent lifestyles and usually proscribed something completely different to the peasants because they understood if everyone tried to imitate their lifestyles…well, nothing would get done.
Right now, we are imitating them in the sense that we think work is optional and some theoretical essential government worker will “risk his life” to take care of us.
from twitter:
Marianne Williamson
@marwilliamson
“The answer is not to reopen the economy; it’s to freeze the economy. The government should provide everyone with the economic wherewithal to survive this period without leaving home. It’s criminal to make people have to choose between their livelihood and their health.”
https://tinyurl.com/ycqcrxjx
It sounds like the woman that Ferguson has been seeing has children, who are living with their mother and father. This sounds a little too liberal for at least some folks.
Tsk, tsk, tsk, tsk, tsk!
It’s clear that justice demands a combination of the ducking stool and the stocks for these two. Quarantine should be lifted and tomatoes rotting in the fields as a result of the restrictions Ferguson advocated should be collected for the occasion. The size of the crowd would rival Woodstock, which by the way also took place during a flu pandemic that killed 100,000 in the US and a million people worldwide.
https://www.aier.org/article/woodstock-occurred-in-the-middle-of-a-pandemic/
Humans… lemmings…
There is no point in resisting…. those making this happen are 100% aware of all of what Simon is saying in that presentation — and they know about that 1968 flu…. and they know that what they are doing is collapsing BAU.
One of the reasons people that I know (who are not drinking the kool aid and want the lockdowns to stop) do not believe there is an agenda (they think the PTB are making a mistake…) is that they cannot understand why the PTB would suicide the world.
If one presents the CDB they will hurl stones…. or dismiss any such suggestion — even though… it is the only logical explanation for what we are experiencing.
Thank god some people see the big picture for what it is FE. Don’t you feel like you’re banging your head against a wall these days. Watching people do cosplay in their masks and shooting you nasty looks for not maintaing precisely six feet distance protocol made me lose faith in humanity for a while. At least 80% are still lemmings?
But I see the protests and my faith is restored. Even if just for a little while. And the 20% may even grow to 30%… Can we at least hold our heads high while the world tries to take us down? Not whimper like cowards and squeal like snitches?
In a way it is frustrating to be able to see what is so obvious and so few are able to see – even if you show them.
On the other hand… I really do want humans gone … so I am quite pleased that they are embracing the lockdowns ignoring the fact they are destroying their ability to feed themselves.
I was speaking to someone involved in the opposition to the NZ lockdowns movement the other day and he said he knew of a guy who owns a painting business — he refuses to restart his business (he can in Level 3) because he does not want to get infected and kill his family. Meanwhile he said he’ll be insolvent if this continues for two to three more weeks.
We need more people like this. If we are to achieve my goal.
I am pro human… so you can count me out!
I want good humans (I count you as one) to survive and thrive in some shape or form.
I still don’t understand why you chose not to have kids.
I want the elite gone. The secret societies. The Grabblers! The Psycho Goblins!
We don’t need them and all we have to do is shine a light on them and they shrivel up and die.
Population would naturally reset every time it gets out of hand.
But a few years of life on this planet is worth experiencing wouldn’t you say?
Whenever I encounter a misanthrope as adamant as yourself I always ask… why are you still around?
Or is it everyone else that you want to get rid of first so that you can be the last man on earth?
I am pro human… so you can count me out!
So you are pro bowel cancer too?
I want good humans (I count you as one) to survive and thrive in some shape or form.
There are no good humans. Fossil fuels means we have enough so we do not rip each other’s throats out. Take 10 humans and lock them in a room for a week and delivery 10 pizzas per day. Then lock them in for a second week and deliver one pizza every 3 days.
I still don’t understand why you chose not to have kids. Hate babies and infants. That’s why we snatched two kids from the 3rd world when they were 8 and 10 and put them in school.
I want the elite gone. The secret societies. The Grabblers! The Psycho Goblins!
So you want some form of communism? Won’t work. Won’t happen. Humans are competitive. New elites always emerge. I am happy to take over once the El d er s are gone. And if anyone crosses me I will have my army take care of them.
We don’t need them and all we have to do is shine a light on them and they shrivel up and die.
see above
Population would naturally reset every time it gets out of hand.
Radiation ponds will take care of the population problem.
But a few years of life on this planet is worth experiencing wouldn’t you say?
Not under covid lockdowns. End it now (not the lockdowns… end IT… everything)
Whenever I encounter a misanthrope as adamant as yourself I always ask… why are you still around?
If I could end myself and take everyone with me then I’d make the sacrifice. Life has actually been very good — mostly enjoyable. I suspect cancer cells are also rather happy as they have mass or gy parties and breed as they rip through a body.
Or is it everyone else that you want to get rid of first so that you can be the last man on earth?
Boring.
Can we get beyond this good/bad dichotomy? After all, it’s just a social construct.
Humans are mammals, and they are intrinsically no better and no worse than any other mammals. Even cuddly mammals are capable of being mean and destructive given the right circumstances.
As for the carnivores and omnivores, don’t get me started. It’s possible to contract bubonic plague from a cat bite and rabies from a dog bite. So my advice would be never to invite them to dinner.
https://t1.ea.ltmcdn.com/en/images/0/3/1/are_dogs_carnivores_or_omnivores_complete_answer_3130_orig.jpg
thanks, T G… I didn’t know this about that flu:
“The flu spread from Hong Kong to the United States, arriving December 1968 and peaking a year later. It ultimately killed 100,000 people in the U.S…”
so in TWO flu seasons, 1968/1969 and the following one 1969/1970, there were 100,000 flu “related” deaths…
and to think, that in only the past month and a half, there have been 70,000 C19 “related” deaths in the USA…
that is quite the comparison…
it’s reassuring to see that you seem to have placed a good amount of certainty in the data that you quoted for 1968 to 1970…
I guess you do trust official data after all…
I don’t necessarily trust the data for 1968 to 1970 either. But I am not aware of any ulterior motives that the authorities would have had to distort that data.
With the current pandemic, several factors leading to over-reporting of deaths from COVID-19 in the US have been established. Doctors are being advised to count deaths from “presumed” COVID-19 cases, not just confirmed cases, as being due to COVID-19. And hospitals are being paid more to list patients as COVID-19 cases. I’m not aware of any such practices in the sixties.
Also, there is the uncontroversial fact that the US population today is 65% larger than it was in 1968. This change would need to be taken into account in trying to make a realistic comparison of the relative scale of the pandemics.
But my bigger point is that diseases and deaths that are classified as influenza or Covid-19 may actually be fairly classified in other ways, because in the vast majority of cases their are comorbidities present that were already making the patients chronically or terminally ill.
Now, how about Koch’s postulates and Covid-19? Does the alleged pathogen fulfill the first postulate?
The organism must be found in people with the disease and be absent in people without the disease.
Actually, it seems that the vast majority of people found to be infected with the new coronavirus exhibit no symptoms of Covid-19? While those people who do exhibit symptoms are often not tested for the virus because they are assumed to be infected with enough of the virus to be causing their symptoms, and PCR testing is not quantitative in any case meaning it can’t tell how much of a virus might be present in a sample, so it is possible theoretically that there are virus-free sufferers of this disease.
Anyone who is unsure of what is going on … needs to watch this
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/06/cbs-news-edits-testing-story-after-project-veritas-exposes-clinics-line-stuffing-ploy/
There is a video that is being passed around. It claims that Vitamin D greatly affects both the severity of COVID-19 and the likelihood of death.
This seems to be the academic article upon which the video is based. If the video is only based on this paper, I think it is overstated. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3585561 According to the abstract,
There seems to be other recent Vitamin D research, however, that is very favorable for Vitamin D. Vitamin D supplementation could possibly improve clinical outcomes of patients infected with Coronavirus-2019 (COVID-19) is referenced in a recent recent letter to the BMJ. In fact, the letter characterizes the new study as a remarkable preprint. The BMJ letter says:
Exposure to UV-sunlight is required for synthesis of Vitamin D. It has been suggested that the shortage of sunlight in winter months is a factor that leads to the normal seasonal influenza and common cold epidemics. In the southern hemisphere the flu season starts in July, when the days are shorter and the Sun is low on the horizon.
If the lack of sunlight contributes to more cases of the flu and COVID-19, then staying indoors is a bad advice.
https://time.com/5181153/sunlight-flu-prevention-study/
Do supplements work?
Supplements raise the level of the Vitamin D in the blood. I had my blood tested last week. My Vitamin D level was a little low, so I raised my supplement level.
Tuna and salmon are excellent dietary sources of Vitamin D, along with B12 and Omega 3 fatty acids.
Thank you, because of this site I take Vitamin D supplements, now I shall have the level added to my yearly physical examination.
Dennis L.
From Gabe Mirkin, my go-to guy for nutrition and health.
“For many years I have offered my opinion that sunlight provides benefits that are not gained just from taking vitamin D pills. Recent research is confirming that opinion, and many scientists now believe that low vitamin D blood levels are only a marker for not getting enough sunlight.
People who get little sunlight are at increased risk for heart attacks, strokes, several types of cancers, infections, bone fractures, diabetes, obesity, depression, auto-immune diseases and other diseases that can cause premature death (J Intern Med, Oct 2016;280(4):375-87), yet the increased risks for these diseases are not reduced by taking vitamin D pills:”
https://www.drmirkin.com/health/morehealth/sunlight-more-than-vitamin-d.html
Breaking! We’re made to be outdoors! And not covered from head to toe in hazmat suits! Or burkas! Or toxic sunscreen!
We’ve been deliberately locked up under house arrest to make us sick. And as we go back out we’ll get a few bugs but it’s fine. Perfectly normal.
The house arrest and dog training is prison protocol preparing the general public for events to come. Live exercise according to Pompeo. Not a hoax… a live exercise. Which is training or cover for something else taking place.
Perhaps I am too covered up outside. I use very little sunscreen–just on a band across my nose and under my eyes, where I have had problems with sun-damaged skin.
Gail, my family have history of nose and lip skin cancer so I’m not saying that people shouldn’t use sun blockers sparingly. I have some lying around too. And many people have to work outdoors long hours.
But there is an obssession with covering up entirely and never allowing sun to kiss the skin which is vital for health. The family cases are from mega sunbathing sessions in the seventies when people would literally fry themsleves for hours in the sun with oily suntan lotions! Not many people use those today.
Supplements are for those who are too lazy to bother with intense exercise (a walk around the block doesn’t count) and eat properly.
I wonder if any of these supplements are in a form that the body can absorb… taking the oil out of a fish and jamming it in a pill then putting it on a shelf…. hmmmm….. why not eat some fish instead?
I agree. No substitute for greens and beans, blue fish, eggs, dairy etc. Don’t even need much meat with that lot inside you.
So called quality supplements are expensive like taking out a mortgage expensive! That goes for storable ready to eat meals too which I see many peddling these days. Jeez, what’s wrong with some dried food and tins?
‘The Automatic Earth’, another spin-off from the Oil Drum, used to be a very informative newsletter, but they seem to have lost their way.
Why Lockdowns Work
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2020/05/why-lockdowns-work/
1818 — Germany: Communist theorist, philosopher of labor, capitalist critic, Karl Marx lives, Trier. Nemesis of Michael Bakunin.
“WE have nothing to lose but our bricks.”
Duncan, I visited Trier, Germany some years ago to tour the Ancient Roman Ruins there, which are impressive, as well as, the Museum. The city was the Capital of Gail (France) at that period, where the Western Co-Emperor resided.
What a surprise for me to walk by a house museum where Karl Marx lived at and opened to the public. Didn’t know it was his birthplace. Very respectful and informative👍. From what I recall it was constructed mostly of wood and not bricks, but many of the Ancient Roman Ruins were made of bricks!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KboMbTNMs4M
Highly recommend, a super stop while visiting the region!👍
I’ll put it on the list.
Thanks
Yeah ***kdowns work if every singe person is tested multiple times for days or weeks on end ”
“The knowledge we have gained since times of old also allows us to understand that if a virus cannot spread to a new host for an x amount of time, it will die off. ”
This will absolutely work with millions of people in close proximity to each other. It’s not like there are people who harbor viruses without getting sick from them.
“: we need a lockdown precisely because we don’t know who is healthy or not.”
Someone asymptomatic is just as sick as someone who is hospitalized. Got it.
“You don’t necessarily have to eradicate a virus to inhibit it from jumping from host to host”
Yet, doctors tell patients to take all their antibiotics to get rid of a bacterial infection. Why would they say that if eradication doesn’t matter?
“we need to keep people, who are all potential hosts AND spreaders, away from each other. Until we know precisely how the virus spreads and/or until we know that the people involved are not virus carriers.”
We don’t know anything about how this virus.
“one of the few things we do know about COVID19: we know it exists and we know it spreads”
The only problem with this statement is that WE DO know a lot more about it than that. This thing has been around for over five months and it has been studied in medical or laboratory settings for that amount of time. To say we “don’t know anything” is a lie.
I know nothing, nothing, about this alleged virus.
I also think that lot of what other people think they know about is stuff that just isn’t so.
https://i.imgflip.com/1g8385.jpg
I keep being told the California doctors have been debunked…
Yes i have heard that but i have not seen any actual debunking… they are debunked because CNN said so…
Meanwhile we have a NZ epidemiologist essentially supporting what they said….
He also demonstrates that Australia (minimal lock) vs NZ (total lock) ended up with the same result…
Well at least in terms of infections … NZ’s economy has been eviscerated… Australia bad but nothing like this basket case I am living in
I was told Chris Martenson had “debunked” Ioannidis. When I went through Martenson’s video line-by-line, there was no “debunking” and he actually did not end up disagreeing with Ioannidis.. he just made scoffing noises over all of Ioannidis’ points and act ed dismissive, for show.
Martenson’s mission is to sell website subscriptions. His Covid 19 articles when not behind a paywall have a 75-80% increase in comments. He’s like the Weatherperson hyping up the latest hurricane for viewership.
There has been no debunking. Because they cannot be debunked. What they are stating is very basic medical facts. It is the authoritarian medical establishment namely Fauci, Birx, Gates, Fergusson etc that have been lying to the general public via the controlled mainstream media propaganda machine in order to sell vaccines and the biometric tracking systems that they have been waiting to roll out for many years.
If people stay in a state of fear and go along with the Great Lie of our time there will be no way out. Everyone will end up locked into a dystopian hell with Musky boy’s Neuralink chip embedded in the back of their heads tracked everywhere on earth by his wonderful blanket of satellites that now obstruct the natural night sky.
Rise up my people! Stop the madness! We can survive on greens and beans! And the Ponds will spew their love and grace transforming us into what we were always meant to be!
Come the Revolution, Fauci, Birx, Gates, Fergusson, etc., will be the first to get their shots.
Skip orlov and automatic earth and peak whoever gives me money I will support martenson… all you need is OFW….
Home to Fast Eddy – Purveyor of Truth — possible God … potential Messiah — Seer of Seers
Cancel your cable … blow off your Netflix… THIS is IT.
Fast Eddy is your HOST for the End of the World Broadcast.
I would not pay any money to Martenson. He’s found his golden egg, it’s called Covid 19 and his website subscriptions have probably gone way up. When he started the Covid 19 hysteria, he and his partner Adam Taggert were actively pushing for new subscriptions to his website.
I don’t doubt that Chris Martenson has done very well with his fear porn, but a lot of what he posts is excellent. His video a few days ago explaining why sars-cov-2 could only have arisen through insertion of genetic material in a lab was the best explanation I have seen of the origin of the virus.
I would be willing to give Martenson a break. He does have some useful things in his commentary. I don’t agree with everything he says, but that is true of pretty much everyone.
Except……
Good point – yes this is like a godsend for Chris… I’ve even had a couple of senior banking people sending me links to his Covid rubbish… he’s penetrated the mainstream.
Take a scan of the ZH headlines (I might read 1 of 10 on a good day)… and it’s just endless gaslighting… up down left right trump this democrats that fear calm … space mining… then Belgium is now banging the drum against China (all this anti China stuff is distraction — there will be no war – China released the Wuhan in cooperation with everyone else who attended the last Davos meeting)
They really are all over the place… The sheeple are totally confused. And confused people are scared people. And scared people look to authority for direction.
I got rid of ZeroHedge. Total distraction. I’m all in Bitchute until there’s nothing left.
Thank you Fast Eddy! Afterwards I sometimes go get a second opinion….
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MiVSs3d4TKw
Or two
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TiBcwolNZME
Just to make sure everyone agrees
Don’t know how prevalent this problem is elsewhere in the world, but here in UK we suffer from graffiti ‘artists’ who feel compelled to write their own name on any and every available surface
How’s the wallpaper project coming along normie?
FE is getting some FE statues commissioned out of bronze… shall he send you one?
There will also be a GI Joe FE doll, FE fridge magnets, pens, calendars, mousepads, screen savers and much much more.
i rest my case
FE = Foil Eddie…
i thought that was his hat
I suspect it is a tailored suit…
Hertz on verge of bankruptcy, gets a reprieve
http://brookvale-nsw.place-advisor.com/img/companies/1/14/147/1476/14768.jpg
$17 billion of debt for a company that only has a market cap of circa $500 million. Another well-managed enterprise.
A lot of large companies/corporation who are in trouble financially are going to be watching the outcome because there’s going to be a long line of companies on the verge of bankruptcy with their hand out.
Given the number of cars, 567,600 that is about $30K of debt per car, about right based on what was BAU, they would be turned and sold for liquidation value equal to debt, the capital would have earned a return adequate to cover interest payments. Given the tax structure, accumulating capital to purchase the cars outright would not be be wise. Good business practice.
Recall, nobody on this site predicted this outbreak, not even a member with a 700 IQ.
The vitriol is disturbing, there is almost a delight here some days on things failing. There were people who had jobs washing those cars, people behind the desks renting those cars, the debt created a business with a flow, gave a life insurance company a place to invest capital to pay for souls lost, their widows saved from destitution – nice touch I think.
Dennis L.
Dennis, how can you say that, having frequenting this site for so long? A lot here were expecting the wheels to fall of the apple cart around this time, from years ago.
By January this year every indicator of the world economy, and also natural ones, were redlining, so if it wasn’t the virus, it would have been something else that finally popped the massive bubble we’d built globally. Sheesh.
People (not necessarily here) have been predicting a new plague since forever, it’s just basic science. This was not an unforeseen, “black swan” event. Only the particulars of COVID-19 were unknown (and are still not well understood).
The vitriol is disturbing, there is almost a delight here some days on things failing.
I can only think of one commenter who claims to be enjoying the way things are falling apart, and that person has stated quite clearly why he feels this way (often with horrific pictures of animals being mistreated to back it up).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GwjfUFyY6M
https://sayingimages.com/wp-content/uploads/so-excited-can-t-wait-meme.jpg
It’s possible to predict a flu – they happen every year.
What is difficult to predict is the el der s making a flu then releasing it and using it to tip over BAU.
FE has made a prediction – it’s called the CDP.
You are starring in it.
When you run out of food – remember this prediction. It’s funny how when predictions come true – that people laughed at — they do not acknowledge that the prediction was right
From an ecological point of view, humans are in a position of extreme overshoot (resources of all types are ‘running out’, global food production dependent on plentiful FF which will soon be gone etc.) and we are killing off the planet. Think ‘survival of life on Earth’. Spare a thought for them.
There are almost 8,000 million sheople on Earth, and a more sustainable number that leaves room for other life forms would be about 50 million.
It does not matter how emotional we feel, industrial society’s time is up and we have been asking for it for a long time. Were we capable of real thinking, we could have chosen a different path, but we didn’t.
Hi Dennis!
I predicted the use of bioweapons to thin the herd back in 2016 because I thought we were getting close. Only it wasn’t really a prediction because the global elite have been bragging about these methods for a very long time in their own literature.
Weak asss pandemic scares have been rolled out over the past 20 years to prep people for the big one. If you don’t prep people adecuately they don’t react and play along the way you want them to. So remember to prep prep prep before the big release.
The thing is… this isn’t the big one. The shut down is. They want people to die of poverty and starvation the world over. They want the world on its knees. They want the survivors to beg for help and salvation. Which is exactly what people will do when the time comes.
What comes next? Brown outs, sabotage, hack attacks, riots, civil war, international skirmishes, compulsory vaccination, microchipping, 5G, Neuralink, Starlink, Space Force, all of it.
And then Lord Putin – the king of the north – will ride up to the top of the mountain on a white horse and all shall bow to their new master commander.
Next?
According to the CDP — lockdown reductions in a few places — infection surges — return to lockdowns (willingly) — starvation.
I don’t think we’ll see much in the way of civil wars … riots… few will be on board for that … and the few that do rock the boat will be dealt as neighbours report them and the police/military smack them
And don’t expect the military to come on side with the anti-lockdown movements… they are as susceptible to the propaganda (probably even more so) than the average sheep…. they will gun down their own families if they break quarantine and ‘endanger everyone’
If ANYTHING goes BAD, we know what to BLAME…the CHINA VIRUS!
Destruction of Amazon rainforest accelerates amid coronavirus
Ines Novacic
May 5, 2020, 8:37 AM EDT
More than 7,300 have died. Some of the worst hit areas are inside the Amazon rainforest, where researchers say the spread of COVID-19 is exacerbating another crisis: destruction of the Amazon rainforest.
Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon increased by more than 50% in the first three months of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019, researchers say. Brazil’s space agency, INPE, uses data from satellite imagery to document the clear-cutting and burning of thousands of square miles of trees across the region each year. Last year, fires were up 30%.
Non-governmental organizations that work with indigenous people’s groups in the Amazon say the increase in deforestation is in part due to a reduction in the presence of oversight agencies that typically operate in the Amazon because of recent social distancing measures as well as a lack of funding from the current Brazilian government. In April, local media highlighted how indigenous leaders and advocates fear that loggers, illegal miners and land-grabbers may take advantage of the coronavirus chaos to accelerate their incursions into these territories.
Man with a plan….burn, baby, burn..
Fast Eddy can’t happen FAST enough human extinction
What is being done is wrong, solutions are needed.
Dennis L.
Birth control for the indigenous people, I suspect.
Hungry people try to solve their problems in the only way they know. Cutting down trees is the lowest cost/most accessible type of energy to obtain. It also yields farmland.
Thata Boy Munchie Mnuchin!👍😜
Steve Mnuchin Urges Americans To Live Dangerously And Travel The Country
HuffPost
Mary Papenfuss
HuffPostMay 5, 2020
Despite the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin is encouraging Americans to travel around the country this summer.
“It’s a great time for people to explore America,” Mnuchin said on Fox Business News on Monday. “A lot of people haven’t seen many parts of America. I wish I could get back on the road soon.”
One problem: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention strongly recommends avoiding all nonessential travel to protect against COVID-19.
“Travel increases your chances of getting and spreading COVID-19,” the agency warns on its website. The “CDC recommends you stay home as much as possible, especially if your trip is not essential.”
Twitter critics were not amused by Mnuchin’s dangerous advice.
LOL…Don’t forget to stop at the Malls and pack the car with STUFF!
I can see the Donald, maybe playing a round with Billy Clinton by his rules of Golf, unlimited Mulligan’s
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vVIzr80YhRM
There are two views regarding everything. If you want to keep the economy going, you encourage everyone to spend–spend–spend. If your only concern in “saving the world from the dreadful things COVID-19 might do,” you encourage everyone to go into hibernation. This, of course, collapses the economy and sends starvation around the world. But it is easy to count the local lives “saved.”
Suppose there is just a failure to communicate….I don’t like anymore than you all!
Boy, wezee😭going to take it right on the chin.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=452XjnaHr1A
Yep, 1984, doublethink keeps the masses in a state of submissiveness and confusion.
Should be an interesting Summer….
1982…Hot in the CITY….
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=poINzGrJils
Billy Idol….is it that long ago!?
Gail,
It may be that we humans have certain ecological limits, we have devised instantaneous travel and accompanying spreading of biological agents into differing ecosystems. Perhaps nature or self organization recognizes certain systems as non-sustainable and has thus limited the size of social groups and their interaction.
We assume humans can do anything, there are no limits, maybe not. Tough area as it might be in conflict with certain contemporary social norms.
Economics is a social construct put on top of different ecologies, the industrial revolution would have been impossible for an Eskimo.
It will be fine, we adapt, chose a course that works and all is well with the universe, chose a blind alley at that set of genes ends. It has always been that way, it is non deterministic.
Dennis L.
Happy Eskimos!
‘Last Kings of Thule’ is good book about them: when a girl fancied you, she would chew your boots before you woke up, to make them nice and soft – isn’t that charming?
Although I was amused to read that when Europeans introduced them to jam, they went crazy for it. Sadly, alcohol was a mistake.
Unfortunately, in an economy, all businesses are necessary. If we want truckers to be able to stay at hotels and eat at restaurants along the highway, we need to have other people doing the same thing. This way the businesses will have enough customers to cover the overhead and be able to pay their staff.
We need truckers to deliver our food and the chemicals used to treat our water, among other things. It is hard to see how all of the pieces fit together. Trucking is at least as necessary as electricity; probably more so.
This is related to the issue of the internet needing the support of the gamers, if businesses are to find the internet inexpensive enough for their purposes.
I think there’s a movie there.
America! The Final Road Trip.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/01/coronavirus-patients-describe-symptoms-that-last-a-month-or-more.html
“But at this point in the crisis, the worst you can say about the Canadian response is that it has been basically competent — what you would expect from a country with a functioning political and health care system. The United States, by contrast, hasn’t cleared this lowest of bars. Our lack of attention to public health, poorly designed national health care system, and deep political dysfunction have contributed to the greatest public health crisis of our lifetimes.”
(The cost of that will be counted in lives. And undercounted at that.)
We need to be getting both the patients and people who someday might be patients adequate levels of Vitamins C and D. Without them, they will struggle for a very long time with the disease.
It would also be helpful for most people to add magnesium, zinc and selenium to the mix. From what I’ve read, magnesium is helpful for everything! Zinc is needed to make immune cells. And selenium supports the body’s antiviral response.
New Zealanders should be especially careful to get enough selenium as the soil of that country is deficient in the mineral.
That’s interesting. I always say… get your greens and beans! But if the soil’s deficient then your beans would be too. We don’t test for these things usually so how would we know unless we monitor nutritional levels etc. Most people simply eat their industrial bakery and that’s that.
New Zealand beef would be selenium deficient too since they’re grazing from the same soil. Unless they take supplements of course. And at that point we’re on a path where we might as well make a soylent green type substitute slop for all humans to end deficiencies.
And I’m not even joking… much.
“A top German court ruled Tuesday that the European Central Bank’s bond buying did not respect the “principle of proportionality,” suggesting the euro zone’s central bank went too far with its mandate.”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/05/05/german-top-court-says-ecbs-qe-partially-violates-law.html
“The euro slid, as did German and Italian bonds, on the prospect that the ECB may soon be prevented from exercising the full might of its asset-purchase program.”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloombergquint.com/amp/onweb/analysts-fret-ruling-to-spur-questions-about-other-ecb-programs
“Unfortunately, while the ECB can try to stop outright deflation and prevent a sovereign debt crisis, it’s in no position to deliver a sustained economic recovery…
“…governments such as Italy and Spain will still be very mindful of the risk that investors might lose confidence in their ability to service their spiraling debts — if not now, then maybe in the future. That will limit their confidence in spending enough to support companies and individuals.
“The European Union wants to create a “Recovery Fund” to help the neediest nations, but there’s no agreement yet over whether this will take the form of grants, or merely loans.
“If it’s the latter, as Germany and other fiscally conservative countries would prefer, there will still be grave doubts about whether the southern European nations will be able to cope with their massive post-coronavirus debts.”
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/05/04/commentary/world-commentary/lagarde-cant-solve-covid-19-crisis/#.XrFbruDTU0M
Italia can risk defoult? No currency? Off grid? What exactly mean…i think soon collaps
The ECB really needs a sustained economic recovery, but money-printing can’t give that.
The economy is going nowhere pleasant without spending a lot of money on stimuli. Imagine, this pandemic is an order of magnitude greater than was the GFC. Between 2008 and 2010 the Fed spent $29TRILLION, so consider we might be up for payments an order of magnitude greater than the GFC. None of it is “taxpayers money”It never was nor can ever be.
Germany says the the ECB needs to prove its bond-buying is needed.
Doesn’t look like we’ll be having an OFW gathering in Queenstown any time soon:
New Zealand PM: No open borders for ‘a long time’
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52540733
That’s right keep those dirty diseased New Yorkers out. NYC the most diseased slum in the world.
Its coming on winter–
The good fly fishing isn’t until November.
It is hard to buy imports, when a country has nothing to sell.
I expect that I will never leave NZ again.
What are you… 95?
Oh come on… look on the bright side… at least you made it to your safe space. Get inside your end times container bunker and give the disco ball a little twirl for me will ya.
Don’t worry dude. Elon is gonna turn up in mech super robot suit and save us all from imminent doom. I guess you didn’t get your copy of the script?
Get a job working with cargo shipments. At some point, figure out a way to leave with the cargo ships, perhaps as an employee. Without cargo ships, NZ would be in a heap of trouble.
Or wait for your current PM to change her mind.
yup
they make stowaways walk the plank
I believe I can leave if I want to because I have permanent residency in HK and a Canadian passport. I would need to make the argument that I was ‘returning home’ (even though I am a permanent resident of NZ). I’d need to get to Christchurch then fly to Auckland then out from there.
However if I was allowed to do that I’d need to quarantine in HK or Canada… and if I came back I’d face the same issue.
Not possible to get a job on a cargo ship because I am not allowed to leave Queenstown without special permission — and usually those ships hire people from countries like the Philippines… lower wages.
I may go out back and dig my grave later…. I’ll need a pick though … it’s mostly shale rock….
No open borders? That’s racist!
At least it was when Donald tried to close a few.
I was told ‘awhile’ by the policy scientist at Otago U…. the WHO guy said 30 years… (as he chuckled about the insanity of the NZ policy)….
It would appear it’s going to be between ‘awhile’ and ’30 years’ a long time … sounds like long enough to Mad Max/The Road NZ.
And you know what — the sheep are not the only sheep in NZ…. as they are sent to the slaughter house by the G3T …. they will be doing this
https://petercombe.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/applause1234363884-1.gif
Very funny all of this … I am loving it actually. They are being extincted … and begging for it!
The Grade 3 Teacher Strikes Again! I’ve got some hockey mates who work at Skyline…. onto welfare NZD800 per month….
This fkkking re ta r ded bi tch needs to be stopped.
On the other hand… if she’s just carrying out the CDP … then please continue to demolish the NZ economy … and prepare the sheeple for their starvation.
Whenever I mention this stuff to Normies that I know (outside of the OFW ones)… the reaction is that they are not so keen on bad news…. they also support the lockdowns…. and they do not blame the Gr 3 Teacher.
Crazy… huh?
https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/121413275/skyline-to-cut-half-its-jobs
Skyline to cut half its jobs. Other tourism operators are cutting many jobs as well.
Without airlines and cruise ships coming in, how will these businesses have any customers at all?
they plan on a new Swiss economy, where each village takes in the laundry of the other. works great, I’m told.
168 houses for rent on the local property site… usually there are maybe a dozen or so — at very high prices.
There are no tourist so people pull off short term rental sites and fight for the few tenants – 10,000 people on govt assistant does not bode well for these people with million+ dollar properties.
The rents are certainly not fire-sale …. I suspect that’s because the owners need a certain amount of cash to pay the mortgage… if they don’t get it they default.
We took a drive into town to get a coffee and noticed a queue of about 25 people at the salvation army to pick up food boxes…
Oh and the friendly lady at the take away coffee shop looked at me like I was crazy when I mentioned I’d just watched a presentation from a NZ epidemiologist and suggested the extreme lockdowns have achieved about the same result as the Australian lower level of lockdown (meanwhile the economy is in ruins).
She said ‘we need a more restrictive lockdown because Kiwis are more huggy type people than Australians’ Ardern probably said that.
Join the FE Campaign to Extinct Humans.
At this point… I’m starting to agree with you… on the extinction that is… although I’m still hesitant (noob extinctionist) since it involves my neck as well. Unless you mean everyone else… then I’m all in.
I get the same killer looks when I spout non conformist rhetoric be it family – that hate me for it – or passers by that are generally bewildered that I’m not all in on Bill Gates injecting me with his love!
Tough times huh. But I really don’t give a flying fark at this point. If it all goes to shart… we kind of deserve it. If some of make it to the zombie apocalypse… may the best cannibal win!
“1. Shadow banking
2. Securitization and Derivatives
3. Deregulation
4. Subprime Lending
“Today, all four elements are still at work in the US housing market. In some ways, their current manifestation has led to even more perverse lending practices than before 2008.
“As a result, stresses in the housing market could lead to another financial crisis.”
https://www.ccn.com/housing-market-checks-4-boxes-caused-2008-crisis/
“Store-closing sales are crucial to the nation’s retail economy: They help liquidate slow-to-sell inventory, and in many cases, they fund a company’s operations through bankruptcy. Without liquidation sales, retailers would find it much tougher, if not impossible, to stay in business during a reorganization.
“The coronavirus pandemic is making retail bankruptcies more likely. But, ironically, it could also make bankruptcies more difficult, and lead to delayed filings. With much of the United States still limiting nonessential businesses, and with shoppers nervous about visiting open stores, closing sales are much more difficult to hold.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/04/business/retailers-lack-of-store-closing-sales-delaying-bankruptcy/index.html
“Debt commitments are much wider than just retail, though…
“Bloomberg displayed this headline on Jan. 2, well before the pandemic arrived in North America: “S&P Takes Most Bearish Stance on U.S. Corporate Debt Since 2009.” At that time, players in the oil and gas industry were taking the biggest hits. In other words, there was a debt problem before the coronavirus and its arrival magnified the problem.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/worrisome-state-corporate-debt-214054795.html
Let’s think about commercial real estate. It must be a whole lot worse off than home sales.
I remember ten years ago after the housing collapse many were saying that commercial retail estate would be next.
It took a while longer than expected but we finally may be seeing the next stage in that process. I think catastrophic collapse may be putting it mildly. Much of what was being propped up doesn’t have a chance of being saved.
Do you see a lot of debt cancellation in the near future Gail? Maybe some rescuing of major corporations and nationalisation of essential industries for what it’s worth? Just to keep things ticking along a while longer?
We are already seeing postponements of debt payments. I understand that long term leases are now moving toward revenue sharing, rather than fixed amounts.
The value of a lot of assets, such as high rise buildings, has to fall as the number of firms willing to rent them falls. Elevators look like they are good ways of sharing viruses. If the number of people who can occupy a floor falls, the amount of revenue each of the workers must generate to justify the rental cost rises.
Yes, governments will need to try to rescue essential industries. I am afraid that they cannot rescue supply lines, however.
I’m pretty sure that no industry is going to go along with the spacing requirements as more information is revealed about this scamdemic.
Airlines are already pushing back because there’s no way they can run a service with such ridiculous regulation.
That said… I still think most of these industries and companies will fail in short order as business simply doesn’t return to what it was.
Maybe that is what is meant by a New Normal.
WHO has been only asking for three feet, not six feet, between people. Six feet makes almost anything non-economic.
Any feet ensures fear will remain. So everything remains uneconomical.
Which is pretty ridiculous because you get strung up if you cough or sneeze in public these days… and a key transmission point is from touching a surface with the virus on it.
And of course this is no different than any other flu so why in the fkkkk are we doing any of this?
(hint – CDP)
They’ll push .. the authorities will cave —we’ll get more infections — and more lockdowns…
“Unsurprisingly, trying to plug the holes of a leaking $23 trillion economy with government money resembles a rudderless adventure right now. The economic repercussions of COVID-19 are almost too vast to fully appreciate…
“Further out, the question for the short to medium-term is, how exactly could prices go up? Aside from essentials (see personal protective equipment and, of course, toilet paper), demand has collapsed…”
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2020/05/04/our-new-world-is-it-inflation-deflation-or-something-else
“…It took 10 years to catch up on the output lost in 2008… we are starting all over again, and this time from an even more extreme scenario.”
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/05/01/1588344147000/An-absolutely-enormous-output-gap-is-forming/
it’s that skimming stone problem
with each impact on the water, the next bounce gets less—until the stone sinks without trace
Right, Norman – and we just hit a very large ripple, too.
There is a $9 trillion output gap that is forming according to the IMF. This will be a big hurdle to overcome.
https://media1.tenor.com/images/83dc3a1c723fde99ef6fc11f7c046c79/tenor.gif
You know what I find really funny is how much effort the US Gov’t takes to combat counterfeit money and here you have the Federal Reserve doing EXACTLY the same thing. It’s like that bumper sticker which says: “Don’t Steal, the Government Hates Competition”
“Factory activity was ravaged across the world in April, business surveys showed, and the outlook looked bleak as government lockdowns to contain the new coronavirus pandemic froze global production and slashed demand…”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-global-economy/pandemic-slams-global-factories-activity-sinks-to-new-lows-idUSKBN22G0AU
“Coronavirus lockdowns have hit the market for thermal coal, where demand is expected to fall by the most this year since the second world war after factories power down.
“Prices for the fossil fuel — used to generate electricity in power stations — held up during the early part of the pandemic crisis before tumbling over the past month. The drop in demand from industries such as car manufacturing has more than outweighed the bump from home usage.
“This overall fall in consumption has been particularly pronounced in Europe, where the UK has gone a record-breaking 24 days without using the fuel.
“A a result, the price of thermal coal shipped to north-west Europe fell to its lowest level since 2003 last week, below $40 a tonne. High-quality Australian coal — the benchmark for the vast Asian market — has dropped to a four-year low at $51 per tonne, down from about $68 a month ago, according to the latest assessment from Argus, a data provider.”
https://www.ft.com/content/c7b67992-b8e5-4ced-8efd-3b6b444d62d9
“While tankers are one of the few “silver linings” in the shipping market in the current context, things could very well turn south if the negative impact from the pandemic of COVID-19 is larger than originally thought.
“Shipping, not just tankers, needs a growing global economy and trade growth, in order to preserve a sustainable market.”
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/global-economys-rebound-will-determine-shippings-fate/
The growing use of tankers is, of course, simply to store oil.
Coal is simply another fossil fuel whose price won’t stay high enough with the current level of demand.
“Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has declared that his country will not approach the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for loans, despite a financial crisis triggered by a collapse in global oil prices and coronavirus lockdowns.
“”Accumulating debt harms national sovereignty,” said Tebboune, in a meeting with Algerian media broadcast late Friday.”
https://www.dailysabah.com/business/economy/algeria-wont-seek-imf-loan-to-ease-financial-woes-president-says
“The Turkish central bank’s international reserves are drying up and the lira has hit a 20-month low amid the coronavirus crisis, yet the overwhelming majority of Turkish citizens don’t want Ankara to take a loan from the International Monetary Fund.”
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-public-oppose-imf-loan-austerity
The IMF is indeed known for austerity programs for those it lends to. The only ones really helped are the rich countries encouraging the IMF loans.
“Four zeroes will disappear from the value of the Iranian currency and the name of the currency itself change, thanks to a new law by the Iranian parliament amid hyperinflation caused by US sanctions and the coronavirus pandemic.
“The rial, Iran’s currency since 1925, has recently lost more than 50 per cent of its worth..”
https://www.news.com.au/world/breaking-news/iran-cuts-four-zeroes-from-currency-value/news-story/5398fbbe222b5799912f41a16cd1b558
“As the COVID-19 world positions itself into a strange potential stagflation situation due to the collapse of categories of demand due to lockdown restrictions as well as supply shocks caused by the disease, the fiat currencies of some governments are collapsing in value — leaving their people stranded, hungry, and desperate.
“This, in turn, leads to inflation — as belief in a government’s ability to pay its own debts and maintain a stable economy flounder, its fiat currency weakens, and the goods you can buy with that fiat currency decrease. Once that inflation hits a critical phase and continues accelerating, it is dubbed hyperinflation.
“In Lebanon, the government has defaulted on its debt and warned that its large amount of public foreign debt has lowered foreign exchange reserves to critical levels.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerhuang/2020/05/03/hyperinflation-in-lebanon-leads-to-mass-protests/#74c3808a730b
“According to Utomi… Nigeria was at such a crisis stage that it needed borrowing to pay its dues, keep up with international transactions and have a running economy.
“…for borrowing, he noted that the nation was on a downward spiral, on its way to experience the Zimbabwean situation of a dollar being equivalent to N1,000, a Venezuelan crisis of hyperinflation, escalating starvation, crime and mortality rates and a return to 1984 where Nigerians had to be on long queues to purchase essential commodities.”
https://tribuneonlineng.com/imf-loan-nigeria-at-risk-of-venezuelan-zimbabwean-crisis-return-to-1984-%E2%80%95-utomi/
“South Africa’s finance deputy minister was quoted in a leading newspaper on Sunday as urging the central bank to temporarily create money to fund the government response to the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic fallout.
[However] …the government would… be keen to avoid a situation like neighbour Zimbabwe, whose runaway money-printing to pay its bills triggered massive hyperinflation a decade ago.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-safrica-financing/update-1-safrica-deputy-finance-minister-urges-central-bank-to-print-money-to-fund-govt-report-idUSL8N2CM2EE
Downward spiral in value, too many places!
Coronavirus: Nearly one in four UK workers furloughed in past fortnight, government data shows
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-furlough-a9498846.html
“Nearly one in four UK employees have been furloughed in the past fortnight under the scheme to support workers and firms during the coronavirus outbreak, according to government data.
HM Revenue and Customs data released on Monday showed 6.3 million workers are having up to 80 per cent of their salaries paid by the Treasury under its job retention scheme.
Some 23 per cent of the country’s workforce has been temporarily laid off, according to the most recent labour market data, which placed the number of private sector workers at 27.5 million.
…Last week, the Office for Budget Responsibility estimated the first three months of the government’s furlough scheme to have a cost (net of income tax to HMRC) of £39bn, with a further £10bn for self-employed workers.
…Even despite mass furloughing, unemployment is still soaring, with over 2 million new claims for benefits coming though.”
Once the lower tax revenue becomes obvious, then government programs start getting cut back as well.
Our governments (in the UK) waste a lot of money. For example:
The nuclear deterrent programme – Trident: tens of billions of pounds
New bypass for Aberdeen city (completed a year ago): £1 billion+ (just under 10% of Scottish annual budget, on one road.)
£100 billion+ on the new rail link London – Birmingham (HS2). Just started, due to come online between 2029 and 2035. We’ll see how far they get by Christmas. Unfortunately one of the first steps is to clear a path through all the native woods in the way, about 70.
https://i2.wp.com/images.slideplayer.com/16/5025385/slides/slide_7.jpg
Everything we do now is unsustainable and just screams that total collapse is near. We’ve overshot the planet’s carrying capacity to support us, not by a little, but by 100 fold. I’d be surprised if we get out of it. (Check the red line above). Oh well, we had a good run. 2-3 million years of genus Homo, where the average lifespan for a species is around 1 million years.
If Ayn Rand were still around … I’d give her a book idea…
Instead of the villain being the useless liberal socialist morrrons — the people who contribute nothing — yet want everything (particularly for themselves)… they are typified by the average morronic east coast university professor… Ardern is also a good example… never worked a day in her life…
Rand could substitute these foools with those with the new breed of useless morrrons — the green G W hipster types… lead by Geeeta, Elon and Al Gore… end of the day just like the socialists in Atlas Shrugged… these people are both hypocrites and sucking the blood out of civilization with their b ull shi t projects….
They are more than useless.. they are dangerous — because their goal is to replace FF when there is no alternative…. we are seeing how potentially dangerous they are now as we witness what happens when we phase out FF….
Such a book would not sell many copies… because normies would be offended… and normies are 99.99999999999999% of the population.
Now watch the normies pour in and shriek at FE …. How Dare You! How Dare You! How Dare You! (repeat that 3x and FE will give you a dog treat)
https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/roblox/images/5/5a/Shriek.png
Beef Prices Explode To Record High As More Stores Limit Meat Purchases
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beef-prices-explode-record-highs-more-stores-limit-meat-purchases
The sky may or may not be falling but usually when we know about it, it will be too late. Will we be lucky this time?
if/when the meat runs out in stores, then people will have to buy/eat other foods…
and so there likely will be a next wave of panic buying…
to be continued…
The wholesale and retail prices for beef across Europe are pretty stable by contrast.
Lots of imbalances though, which could impact prices moving forwards:
“The slump in calf exports this spring has the potential to create a long-term cattle glut and seriously hit beef prices in the coming years, farmers [in Ireland] have been warned.”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/farming/news/farming-news/calf-exports-slump-raises-fears-of-a-cattle-glut-39179725.html
“Beef farmers are reeling after the Irish Government confirmed it was paying the wages of processors’ staff, allowing cheap imports to flood the UK market.”
https://www.fginsight.com/news/news/beef-farmers-left-angry-over-subsidised-irish-beef–108351
And loss of service industry demand is causing the retail price of premium cuts to fall by as much as 15% in the UK.
“ In a move that is undoubtedly going to cause chaos for landlords in Santa Monica, the city extended its moratorium on residential and commercial evictions to June 30 and extended from six to twelve months the time tenants have to pay rent they were unable to pay late last week.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/bailout/renters-now-have-12-months-repay-unpaid-rent-santa-monica
Now I am thinking … even if I could afford the rent… I’d just not bother to pay… then in 12 months I’d try to cut a deal with the LL…
Of course 12 months will never come — I be dead LL be dead.
IBDLLBD.
In many cases, it will be landlords that lose out.
Tell us all something that we here don’t know…..
We’ve probably peaked in terms of retirement security — and it’s not great,” Monique Morrisey of the
liberal-leaning Economic Policy Institute tells Englund. “And now it’s all downhill. Unless something changes, we’re going to start seeing much more hardship.
A Look at America’s ‘Broken Retirement System’
The Fiscal Times
Michael Rainey
The Fiscal TimesMay 4, 2020
https://www.yahoo.com/news/look-america-broken-retirement-system-224000204.html
“Every day, 10,000 Americans reach the age of 65,” Will Englund says Monday in The Washington Post, noting that the number will peak at 12,000 a day in 2024. “And every year, fewer and fewer of them have traditional employer-sponsored pensions to support them. The system that was supposed to provide for them is shot through with holes
Just got in the mail😘 a noticed from my pension plan that’s in the RED ZONE and underfunded.
Seems it’s just 87% and was T 89% just last year. Says it will adjust rules to shore up the depletion.
Rust never sleeps.
It don’t look good….😭
Coming soon….
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3SjlXZspQ5Y
Yes, the Fed Res is flat out of control….yes, Eddy….I can see it all👍
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=j3pSJn8UkfQ
Everyone, retirees included, needs to share in the same pot of “goods and services” produced. If there are fewer goods and services produced, all will receive less. Retirees, because they are not contributing to the labor force, probably should not be receiving much of the pot, if there is not enough to go around.
Found this interesting bit, regarding a UK poll: “just 47% of men are scared, compared to 62% of women. Among different age groups, the most scared are not the over-55s, but 34-44 year-olds.”
https://lockdownsceptics.org/
I’m in the USA and male and 60+…
I would prefer not to get it, but I’ve lived enough, so I would be in the “not scared” category… not that I’m so brave, but that it’s getting close to the time when something gets me, so whatever…
I can see where 34-44 year-olds would be most scared since they would be more likely to have young children…
They need not be too concerned… they’ll win a lottery price before they die from wuhan
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105596/covid-19-mortality-rate-by-age-group-in-spain-march/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1106372/coronavirus-death-rate-by-age-group-italy/
Your chance of dying in a car in 60 years of driving equals your chance of dying from CV19. Why have you not given up driving?
I like FDR’s maxim: ‘We have nothing to fear but fear itself’.
Im terrified.
I am terrified my friends and family will starve from no work. I am terrified that the children will have no future because of the spending. I am terrified that a unsafe and ineffective vaccine will be injected into my body without my consent. I am terrified that the moronic and bigoted PC culture that sees no problem with these lock downs and sees them as a opportunity will be donning black boots and sporting truncheons soon.
Being infected with the virus is not even a anxiety let alone a fear. That will probably be a thought crime soon. Its really quite amazing. Virus phobia that would have been considered borderline mentally ill a few months ago is now demanded by the PC police. I do believe the public has developed a unhealthy taste for fear. Its….Going… to…GETYOU!
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcTxqOQhw55KjYJSAIpdz1pIU-PfL_c3JGAqLyR7S1DDUJQzrJeY&usqp=CAU
Fruitloops, we have the same fears. What the goal of this campaign of fear is I do not see.
I did take that year long course on western civilization at Columbia University (formerly Kings College). We in the five eyes had such a wonderful history and inheritance of rights, of a belief in reason and law. Now it is gone; given away to a few piggish billionaires and their greedy millionaire servants.
Join the campaign to extinct humans. Be on the winning team!
You have to believe to be on that team. I wouldnt cut the mustard.
‘The proles are not human beings,’ he said carelessly. ‘By 2050 earlier, probably — all real knowledge of Oldspeak will have disappeared. The whole literature of the past will have been destroyed. Chaucer, Shakespeare, Milton, Byron — they’ll exist only in Newspeak versions, not merely changed into something different, but actually changed into something contradictory of what they used to be. Even the literature of the Party will change. Even the slogans will change. How could you have a slogan like “freedom is slavery” when the concept of freedom has been abolished? The whole climate of thought will be different. In fact there will be no thought, as we understand it now. Orthodoxy means not thinking — not needing to think. Orthodoxy is unconsciousness.’
One of these days, thought Winston with sudden deep conviction, Syme will be vaporized. He is too intelligent. He sees too clearly and speaks too plainly. The Party does not like such people. One day he will disappear. It is written in his face.
As Wuhan was amping up I was sent something about the ‘future of advertising’… without getting into the details I responded with ‘hopefully we don’t get to that point – maybe Wuhan will ensure we never see this Dystopian future’ (chuckle chuckle… )
But I was not kidding …
The Freak Show is about to ended… step right up and watch the Freak Show’s final performance.
Isn’t it grand!
Right:
Recognition of “co-existence” seems to be moving the authorities away from an ‘everything stops, everything resumes’ stance towards a much more nuanced position, in which some economic activities can be restarted relatively quickly, whilst the resumption of other activities will take very much longer.
Aviation falls very much into the second category. If physical (wrongly labelled “social”) distancing needs to remain in situ, it’s almost impossible to see how airports and airlines can return to operation. Even if they could, it’s very hard to envisage passengers returning in their droves. Quite apart from the fact that most people are going to be a lot poorer after the crisis, there will remain an extreme and prolonged unwillingness to enter crowded spaces. Aviation has the additional handicap – which it shares with the cruise industry – that people will be reluctant to risk finding themselves put into extended isolation, either at their destination or on their return home.
Both the practical and the psychological implications of the crisis for consumers are likely to be profound, and to extend far beyond the international transport and tourism sectors. As and when the virus recedes, most households are likely to have experienced a draining of their savings, an increase in their debts and a meaningful reduction in their incomes. To health-related fears will have been added a new financial conservatism, reflected in a reduced propensity to engage in discretionary (non-essential) purchases.
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2020/05/03/171-inflexion-point/
well, at least he now is saying that there will be no V shape recovery…
quite bold of him (sarc)…
many months later than some of us here at OFW…
in my opinion, he is still way too optimistic about the fall of passenger airlines…
perhaps he will catch on in a month or two… 😉
The fault in Tim Morgan’s thinking is that he dwells to much in a world of abstractions.
He seems quite happy to class this crisis as an early instalment of ‘De-growth’ with consequent ‘sector elimination’ – which must happen, of course – but is unwilling to face the implications of it. For instance, for his chosen place of residence, Spain, this is going to be simply disastrous!
He is unable to see the full implications of continued restrictions and lock-downs. Another example of a well-heeled theorist feeling insulated from reality and inclined to complacency.
His general theory is correct, of course, and should be appreciated.
Agree.
That’s the first article in awhile that I have read in its entirety…. he should stick to hard analysis and not look beyond that.
I actually thought he was coming around about a year ago when he mentioned being somewhere on holiday and the power went down for an extended period of time. It jolted him but then he went back to his safe place.
Poor Tim — seems like such a nice chap. Too bad the locals will skin him alive with razors and make wallets out of the left over skin….
The power went down on the island he is living on, and didn’t get back up until the mainland sent loads of generators to help – even after that, he stated that he didn’t believe in prepping of any kind. Puzzling: the possibility that one day the mainland might not be able to help seems not to have occurred to him -but that too must happen in ‘De-growth’.
Tim Morgan has lots of good insights and worthwhile things to say but I am with David Korowicz on de-growth:
“…the possibility of a controlled orchestrated de-growth to some viable steady-state position is probably deluded in the extreme.”
Tim would probably have nightmares and drop into a deep funk if he were to accept this reality.
Most people would… people hate to feel negative.
In fact a lot of people would off themselves.
We are not returning to anything near normal so this grim state of affairs is as good as it’s going to get so we might as well just get this over with.
Pull back the curtain…. open the gates…. let’s have a look at this BEAST
https://5150businessstrategy.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/gates_of_hell_by_anarkyman.jpg
IOW, once a tipping point of excessive contraction has been breached, we find ourselves in a chaotic, rapidly accelerating and self-reinforcing downward spiral of declining socio-economic complexity until a new equilibrium has been reached.
Unfortunately this is likely to be closer to FE’s doomsday scenario than most commentators will admit.
We might experience the scenario where everything gets locked down for so long that we get random and cascading failures in key infrastructure due to failing logistics of spare parts and cancelled maintenance. Especially the grid but also water supply, sewage, fuel supplies / gas stations and trucking where you get spill-over effects if one of these are failing in any given area. Everything is built for JIT logistics and the use of specific computer software/hardware and the internet communication for small and big transactions.
Hopefully these problems will be contained but we will probably see a whole lot of unforeseen and uncontrollable consequences, especially if we get these problems in key hubs (which there are many).
You’d think he’d at least get a crate of wine….maybe some olives and some chorizo….
The second is that, once restrictions are lifted, it would be very hard indeed to reimpose a “lockdown 2.0”. This latter consideration has inclined governments towards caution, despite the siren, often self-interested voices calling for an accelerated “exit”.
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2020/05/03/171-inflexion-point/
wrong: https://time.com/5826918/hokkaido-coronavirus-lockdown/
Easy to re-lock … just show images of many sick and dead people… and everyone will be begging for the lockdowns to be reinstated
I’d agree, they have everyone so scared now it will be very easy to re-impose lock-downs.
As people become poorer and more depressive, they will be much easier to control,and their powers of reasoning about evidence will diminish still further.
One of the East European dictators did much the same thing to keep control, allowing people to go to work and making them scurry back home afterwards, nothing else allowed. Was it Roumania or Albania? They were also told that life outside their country was a Capitalist Hell, and that they lived in paradise for workers.
“The latest findings of the “Edelman Trust Barometer,” which for two decades has polled tens of thousands of people on their trust in core institutions, challenge the notion that “lockdown fatigue” is rising among populations hit by the pandemic.
“Overall, 67% of the 13,200-plus people interviewed between April 15 and April 23 agreed with the statement: “The government’s highest priority should be saving as many lives as possible even if it means the economy will recover more slowly.”
“Just one-third backed the assertion: “It is becoming more important for the government to save jobs and restart the economy than to take every precaution to keep people safe.””
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-politics-trust/coronavirus-health-fears-outweigh-concern-for-economy-global-survey-idUKKBN22H098
That’s the problem when they poll normies…. they are so feeble-of-mind… that they’d opt for guaranteed starvation over maybe getting a touch of the flu.
Du m ber than rats.
In the West, though, starvation never, ever, seems likely – last famines in WW2 – so it’s not on the radar.
That’s something that only happens ‘over there’…
It’s going to be so amusing to see how these people react when they are living in utter destitution… worried about where their next bit of food is going to come from. The Facebooking, lime scootering, tweeting, teevee addicted, big gulp gulping bozos…. are about to be dropped into their own version of the third world… then there are the je rk offs who live large and treat everyone else like shoe shine boys…
A big dose of Schadenfreude for the wealthy liberal NY Time subscribers who are urging the government to maintain the lockdowns…. When this things busts you can bet your bottom dollar I will be thinking of them as I sip whisky…..
I hope those vile coiffured vermin suffer… in fact I hope the deplorables drag them from their elegant homes and roast them over a fire…. I really do.
Currently re-listening to Germinal… just finished a scene where a mother, unable to get credit, and unable to get help from the coal mine owner…. wh-ores her daughter to the shopkeeper for food.
Well, it’s all in the framing of the question:
Do you want to restart the economy, or to keep people safe and alive?’ Economy v care for life, obvious response.
But if the question were to be more truthful and accurate, ie
‘Do you want to restart the whole economy which is now collapsing – at only small and reasonable risk to the majority of people – so that we can actually have the money and equipment to look after whoever falls ill and is vulnerable, and avoid mass starvation?’
The answer would, one hopes, be very different.
Xabier, I agree – it is a false, binary choice.
That is a good way of putting the issue.
Looked at from the point of view of the many elderly and in poor health, more lockdowns definitely look like the way to go.
I noticed that the headline in the Atlanta Journal Constitution today was, “CDC: Outbreak Worsens in GA.” I know that the statistics being reported for the state of Georgia show no such thing, so I read all of the way to the end of the article to find out what the CDC was concerned about. The outbreak is worsening in some counties in GA. Well, yes!
There is alway some piece of the data to be concerned about.
“As states begin to reopen their economies, former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb warned Tuesday that the U.S. might not be able to lower transmission of the coronavirus much more than the current rate, which has resulted in about 30,000 new cases a day.
““I think that we need to understand this may be the new normal,” Gottlieb said…”
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/new-normal-ex-fda-chief-warns-u-s-may-not-n1200146
30,000 cases a day is not a whole lot, in the whole scheme of things. For the sake of the economy, we may need to choose even a higher “normal” rate.
The medical system may need to learn to adapt to what the economy can afford. What inexpensive treatments can be offered to patients? How can they be kept out of the hospital longer? What vitamins and minerals can they take to lessen the severity of the illness?
Not really, FE. Maybe in rich neighborhoods / countries the sheep would peacefully accept a re-lock. but not in poor countries. Even without a re-lock of the economy it already seems impossible to avoid famine and riots on the streets – they are exploding everywhere now outside OCDE countries. And May has just began – what will be the flavour of mayhem we’ll get in August is anybody’s guess. If PTB try to implement a re-lock in July, they must be prepared to put soldiers in the streets, while having to maintain the supply chains for energy and food at least. That’s the tallest order ever made i suppose. The millions angry mob will want to set everything on fire and hang all the politicians and the more notorious businessman (good luck with that!). And the PTB will want to be intimidating enough that the mob would rather starve than face them. For sure, we are facing a really hot summer. We just need to wait and see, the events wil come to us. It’s an exciting and appaling time to be alive. This is HUGE, the biggest show produced in this planet since the cretacious, and We Were/Are There (we could even print it in t-shirts to flaunt in the Last Party)
Maybe the third world goes out of control … maybe not.
Egypt put an end to mass protests by shooting 600 people… haven’t heard a peep out of there since.
It’s amazing how people respond to bullets.
Of course the military might at some point turn on the government …
End of the day it doesn’t really matter — if people in a country do not want to go along with the CDP… then I am sure the PTB could care less… if they want to go through the end of civilization tearing each others hearts out and eating them…. so be it.
The purpose of the CDP is to get the sheep into their pens…. then starve them to death – thereby avoiding
https://media.giphy.com/media/5yuC2vIsQJdoA/giphy.gif
Welcome to 2030. I own nothing, have no privacy, and life has never been better
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/shopping-i-can-t-really-remember-what-that-is/
Truly delusional. Problem is many believed in something similar.
Someone needs to pave the roads and build the buildings, not to mention grow the food.
The interesting aspect is how the first part might be accurate, just not in the way they thought…
” I don’t own anything. I don’t own a car. I don’t own a house. I don’t own any appliances or any clothes.”
It is funny how some people can be accurate in the least expected way…
She is related to GEEEta… second cousin or something like that… those Geetas are all inbred cousins brother sisters mothers .. it’s a mish mash of bad genes with a touch of morrronism and a heaping dose of r etar da tion…. rumour has it there’s a bit of donkey gene in there.. not sure how that transpired.
That said.. it’s quite as bad as the British royal family …
http://diablo.incgamers.com/gallery/data/500/Royal_Inbreeding.JPG
Poor fella.. it’s not his fault….
Did I say donkey? I meant horse….
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2018/10/15/22/5073704-6279203-image-m-57_1539637636483.jpg
Never trust anyone with eyes are so close together
https://randomoverload.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/368f1760like-dobby.jpg
http://www.rhizomes.net/issue26/hoffmann/image006.jpg
https://www.animatedimages.org/data/media/1309/animated-laughing-image-0133.gif
Technically she doesn’t qualify for all the good things mentally disabled people get … but make no mistake – she is me nta ally re tar ded.
Imagine be trapped with this person in a room and having to converse…
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/authors/ida-auken
That’s funny, well spotted!!
“She is member of the Danish Parliament for The Social Liberal Party and is Chairman for The Parliament’s Climate and Energy Committee.”
Any evidence of “a Plan” by TPTB just went out the window if that is the calibre of person in charge … ‘chairman’ of the ENERGY committee.
What further evidence is needed that the scary version, of there is no plan, is what is actually happening!! It’s the blind leading the blind!!
Run Forest run!!
My little sister, to my despair, thinks the same: it’s all going to be perfect Green Socialism in which you get to enjoy everything you want but all Green, Clean and not Capitalist!
If you lack any reasoning capacity, have never considered what all those dirty ff factories and machines actually do, and have never got your hands dirty with real work, it all does sound plausible and wonderful.
I like the part where randos use her home for “business meetings” while she’s out!
“Mr. Akbar, here’s how the coffeemaker works. I’m just popping down to the shops; can I get you anything? Condoms? Machete polish?”