Why are we seeing so much violence recently? One explanation is that people are sympathizing with those in the Minneapolis area who are upset at the death of George Floyd. They believe that a white cop used excessive force in subduing Floyd, leading to his death.
I believe that there is a much deeper story involved. As I wrote in my recent post, Understanding Our Pandemic – Economy Predicament, the problem we are facing is too many people relative to resources, particularly energy resources. This leads to a condition sometimes referred to as “overshoot and collapse.” The economy grows for a while, may stabilize for a time, and then heads in a downward direction, essentially because energy consumption per capita falls too low.
Strangely enough, this energy crisis looks like a crisis of affordability. The young and the poor, especially, cannot afford to buy goods and services that they need, such as a home in which to raise their children and a vehicle to drive. Trying to do so leaves them with excessive debt. If the affordability problem changes for the worse, the young and the poor are likely to protest. In fact, these protests may become violent.
The pandemic tends to make the affordability problem worse for minorities and young people because they are disproportionately affected by job losses associated with lockdowns. In many cases, the poor catch COVID-19 more frequently because they live and/or work in crowded conditions where the disease spreads easily. In the US, blacks seem to be especially hard hit, both by COVID-19 and through the loss of jobs. These issues, plus the availability of guns, makes the situation particularly explosive in the US.
Let me explain these issues further.
[1] Energy is required for all aspects of the economy.
Energy is required by governments. Energy is required to operate police cars. Energy is required to build schools and to operate their heating and lighting. Energy is needed to build and maintain roads. Tax revenue represents available funds to buy energy products and goods and services made with energy products.
Energy is needed for any type of business. Operating a computer requires electricity, which is a form of energy. Heating or cooling a building requires energy. Growing food requires solar energy from the sun; liquid fuel is used to operate farm machinery and trucks that transport food to the locations where it is sold. Human energy is used for some of these processes. For example, human energy is used to operate computers and farm machinery. Human energy is sometimes used to pick the crops, as well.
Wages paid by governments and businesses indirectly go to buy energy products of many kinds. Food is, of course, an energy product. The heat to cook or bake the food is also an energy product. Metals of all kinds are made using energy products, and lumber is cut and transported using energy products. With sufficient wages, it is possible to buy or rent a home, and to purchase or lease an automobile.
Interest rates indirectly reflect the portion of goods and services produced by energy products that can be transferred to parts of the system that depend on interest earnings. For example, banks, insurance companies and those on pensions depend on interest earnings. If interest rates are high, benefits to pensioners can easily be paid and insurance companies can charge low rates for their products, because their interest earnings will help offset claim costs.
Interest rates are now about as low as they can go, indicating a likely shortage of energy for funding these interest rates. The last time interest rates were close to current levels was during the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Figure 1. Ten-year and three-month US Treasury interest rates, in chart made by FRED.
[2] When there is not enough energy to go around, the result can be low commodity prices, low wages and layoffs.
This is not an intuitive result. Most people assume (low energy = high prices), but this is the opposite of what actually happens. The problem is that the amount workers can afford to pay for finished goods and services needs to be high enough to make production of the commodities used in making the finished products profitable. When affordability falls too low, the system tends to collapse.
We are really dealing with a two-sided problem. The prices of commodities such as oil, wholesale electricity, steel, copper and food tend to fluctuate widely. Consumers need these prices to be low, in order for the price of finished goods made with these commodities to be affordable; producers need the prices of these commodities to rise ever-higher, to cover the cost of deeper wells and more batteries, to try to partially offset the intermittency of solar and wind electricity.
Most people assume that the situation will be resolved in the direction of commodity prices rising ever higher. In fact, commodity prices did rise higher, until mid 2008. Then, something snapped; commodity prices have been falling ever-lower since mid 2008. In fact, ever-lower commodity prices have been a world-wide problem, causing huge problems for countries trying to support their economies with export revenues based on commodity production.
Figure 2. CRB Commodity Price Index from 1995 to June 2, 2020. Chart prepared by Trading Economics. Composition is 39% energy, 41% agriculture, 7% precious metals and 13% industrial metals.
Even before the lockdowns, low commodity prices were leading to low wages of those working in commodity industries around the world. These low prices also led to low tax revenue, and this low tax revenue led to an inability of governments to afford the services that citizens expect, such as bus service and subsidized prices for certain essential goods/services. For example, South Africa (an exporter of coal and minerals) was experiencing public protests in September 2019, for reasons such as these. Chile is a major exporter of copper and lithium. Low prices of those commodities led to violent protests in 2019 for similar reasons.
Now, in 2020, lockdowns have led to even lower commodity prices. At times, farmers have been plowing their crops under. Oil companies are laying off workers. The trend toward lower commodity prices had been occurring for a long time; the recent drop in prices was “the straw that broke the camel’s back.” If prices stay this low, there is a danger of falling production of commodities that we depend on, including food, metals, electricity, and oil. Businesses producing these items will fail, and governments with falling tax revenue will be unable to support them.
[3] Historical energy consumption data shows that violence often accompanies periods when energy production is not growing fast enough to meet the needs of the growing population.
Figure 3 shows average annual growth in world energy consumption, for 10-year periods:
Figure 3. Average growth in energy consumption for 10 year periods, based on Vaclav Smil estimates from Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects (Appendix) together with BP Statistical Data for 1965 and subsequent.
Economic growth encompasses both population growth and rising standards of living. Figure 4 below takes the same information used in Figure 3 and divides it into (a) the portion underlying population growth, and (b) the portion of the energy supply growth available for improved standards of living. During most periods, increased population absorbs over half of increased energy consumption.
Figure 4. Figure similar to Figure 3, except that energy devoted to population growth and growth in living standards are separated. A circle is also added showing the recent growth in energy is primarily the result of China’s temporary growth in coal supplies.
There are three dips in the Living Standards portion of Figure 4. The first one came in the 10 years ended 1860, just before the US Civil War. Most of us would say that was a period of violence.
The second one occurred in the 10 years ended 1930. This is the period when the Great Depression began. It came between World War I and World War II. This was another violent period of our history.
The third dip came in the 10-year period ended 2000. This was not a particularly violent period; instead, it reflects the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union, leaving the member republics to continue on their own. There was a huge loss of demand (really, affordability) on the part of countries that were part of the Soviet Union or depended on the Soviet Union.
Figure 5. Chart showing the fall in Eastern Europe’s materials production, after the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union in 1991.
[4] The world is facing a situation in which total energy consumption seems likely to drop by 5% per year, or perhaps more.
If we look back at Figure 3, we see that even in very “bad” times economically, energy consumption was rising. In fact, in one 10-year period, the average increase was more than 5% per year.
If the world economy is reaching a point in which we consumers, in the aggregate, cannot afford the goods and services made with commodities, unless commodity prices are very low, we will likely experience a huge drop in energy consumption. I don’t know exactly how much the annual change will be, but energy consumption growth and GDP growth tend to move together. We might guess that GDP growth is shifting to 5% GDP annual shrinkage, and energy consumption will be shrinking by a similar percentage.
Clearly, shrinkage of 5% per year would be far worse than the world economy has experienced in the last 200 years. In fact, for the 10-year periods shown in Figure 3, there has never been a reduction in energy consumption. Even if I am wrong and the shrinkage in energy consumption is “only” 2% per year, this would be far worse than the experience over any 10-year period. In fact, during the Great Recession, world energy consumption only shrank in one year (2009) and then by 1.4%.
History doesn’t give us much guidance regarding what impact a dramatic reduction in energy consumption would have on the economy, except that population reduction would likely be part of the change that takes place. If half or more of energy consumption growth goes toward rising population (Figure 4), then a shrinkage of energy consumption seems likely to reduce world population.
[5] What the world is really facing is a competition regarding which parts of the economy can stay, and which will need to be eliminated, if there is not enough energy to go around. It should not be surprising if this competition often leads to violence.
As I indicated in Section [1], all parts of the economy depend on energy. If there is not enough, some parts must shrink back. The big question is, “Which parts?”
(a) Do governments, and organizations that bind governments together, collapse? If countries are doing poorly, they will not want to contribute to the World Trade Organization, the United Nations or the European Union. Governments, such as the government of Saudi Arabia, could be overthrown, or may simply stop operating. In fact, any government, when it faces insurmountable problems, could simply stop operating and leave its functions to lower levels of government, such as states, provinces, or cities.
(b) Do pension plans stop operating? Are pensioners left “out in the cold”? How about Social Security recipients?
(c) Can international trade be kept operating? It is a big consumer of energy. Also, competition with low-wage countries tends to keep wages in developed nations low. Without international trade, many imported goods (including imported medicines) become unavailable.
(d) Which companies will collapse, leaving bond holders and stockholders with $0? People who formerly had jobs with these companies will also find themselves without jobs.
(e) If the world economy cannot support as many people as before, which ones will be left out? Is it people in rich countries who find themselves without jobs? Is it people who find themselves without imported medicines? Is it the ones who catch COVID-19? Or is it mostly citizens of very poor countries, whose income will fall so low that starvation becomes a concern?
[6] The violent demonstrations represent an effort to try to push the problems related to the shortfall in energy, and the goods and services that energy can provide, away from the protest groups, toward other segments of the economy.
In an ideal world:
(a) Jobs that pay well would be available to all.
(b) Governments would be able to afford to provide a wide range of services to all, including free health care for all and reimbursement for time off from work for being sick. They would also be able to provide adequate pensions for the elderly and low cost public transit.
(c) Police would treat all citizens well. No group would be so poor that a life of crime would seem to be a solution.
As indicated in Section [2], back in 2019, before COVID-19 hit, protests were already starting because of low commodity prices and the indirect impacts of low commodity prices. One reason why governments were so eager to adopt shutdowns is the fact that when people were required to stay inside because of COVID-19, the problem of protests could be stopped.
It should be no surprise, then, that the protests came back, once the lockdowns have ended. There are now more people out of work and more people who are concerned about not having full healthcare costs reimbursed. Social distancing requirements are making it more difficult for businesses to operate profitably, indirectly leading to fewer available jobs.
[7] Violent protests seem to push problems fueled by an inadequate supply of affordable energy toward (a) governments and (b) insurance companies.
In some cases, insurance companies will pay for damages caused by protesters. Eventually, costs could become too great for insurance companies. Most policies have exclusions for “acts of war.” If protests escalate, this exclusion might become applicable.
Governments of all kinds are already being stressed by shutdowns because when citizens are not working, there is less tax revenue. If, in addition, governments have been paying COVID-19 related costs, this creates an even bigger budget mismatch. Governments find themselves less and less able to pay their everyday expenses, such as hiring teachers, policemen, and firemen. All of these issues tend to push city governments toward bankruptcy and more layoffs.
[8] Dark skinned people living in America tend to be Vitamin D deficient, making them more prone to getting severe cases of COVID-19. Vitamin supplements may be an inexpensive way of reducing the severity of the COVID-19 epidemic and thus lessening its diversion of energy resources.
There are a number of reports out that suggest that having adequate Vitamin D from sunlight strengthens the immune system and helps reduce the mortality of COVID-19. Adequate Vitamin C is also helpful for the immune system for people in general, not just those with dark skin.
Dark skinned people are adapted to living near the equator. If they live in the United States or Europe, their bodies make less Vitamin D from the slanted rays available in those parts of the world than they would living near the equator. As a result, studies show that Vitamin D deficiency is more common in African Americans than other Americans.
Recent data shows that the COVID-19 mortality rate for black Americans is 2.4 times that of white Americans. COVID-19 hospitalization rates are no doubt higher as well. Encouraging Americans with dark skin to take Vitamin D supplements would seem to be at least a partial solution to the problem of greater disease severity for Blacks. Vitamin C supplements, or more fresh fruit, might be helpful for all people, not just those with low Vitamin D levels.
If the COVID-19 impact can be lessened in a very inexpensive way, this would seem to be helpful for the economy in general. High-cost solutions simply divert available resources toward fighting COVID-19, making the overall resource shortfall for the rest of the economy worse.
[9] Much more equal wages would seem to be a solution for wage disparity, but this doesn’t bring the wages of low earning workers up enough, in practice.
There are a huge number of low-earning workers in many countries around the world. In order to increase commodity prices enough to make them profitable for producers, we really need wages in all countries to be much higher. For example, wages in Africa and in India need to be much higher, so that people in these parts of the world can afford goods such as cars, air conditioning and vacation travel. There is no way this can be done. Furthermore, such a change would add pollution and climate change issues.
There is a fundamental “not enough to go around” problem that we do not have an answer for. Historically, when there hasn’t been enough to go around, the attempted solution was fighting wars over what was available. In a way, the violence seen in cities around the globe is a new version of this violence. Governments of various kinds may ultimately be casualties of these uprisings. Remaining lower-level governments will be left with the problem of starting over again, issuing new currency and trying to make new alliances. In total, the new economy will be very different; it will probably bear little resemblance to today’s world economy.
“The sometimes violent protests which have engulfed dozens of US cities since then also raise fresh questions over the longer-term impact of rioting, and the economic scars that can linger after the flames and tear gas have died down.
“Victor Matheson, a professor at the Massachusetts-based College of the Holy Cross, lived in Minneapolis for a decade and is one of the few academics to have seriously studied the after-effects of civil disorder…
“Using sales tax data, he calculated that the riots cost LA almost $4bn in lost revenues over the following decade.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/06/us-riots-set-scar-economy-years-come/
“Tens of thousands rallied in cities and towns across the US on Saturday as protests over the killing of George Floyd gathered strength across the world.”
https://www.ft.com/content/2b0f40c0-8e07-4eb4-b2d6-0ed0e3599243
“Fourteen police officers have been injured and 14 more have been arrested after violence erupted in central London during a Black Lives Matter protest.”
https://news.sky.com/story/george-floyd-violence-breaks-out-at-anti-racism-protest-in-london-12001942
https://granitegrok.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/democrats-protests-and-social-distancing-1024×576.png
An idiot writer for The Guardian actually called it ‘a battle between public health and social justice’: approving of the protests and the behaviour of the crowds, of course.
I’m pretty sure you could make the same meme with some right-winger gun nuts.
The current conditions have not persuaded you even a little of the wisdom of keeping a rifle for home defense?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EZ3bokNXQAAXec6?format=jpg&name=small
This one is even funnier:
https://images.hive.blog/p/2bP4pJr4wVimqCWjYimXJe2cnCgn9BsU4EfzpniEWBQ?format=match&mode=fit&width=640
Unsociable gatherings can have far more people than sociable ones!
Interesting!
I was talking to my sister-in-law in Minnesota. Minneapolis is talking about disbanding its police force. What would happen to property values in Minneapolis, if this were done? With lower property values, how would Minneapolis ever collect enough taxes for schools and whatever other services it is trying to provide.
Making big changes for the worse is almost certain to have a long-lasting impact.
The idea would be to start afresh, but I doubt it will happen.
It is just the working out of one of Lenin’s favorite sayings: “The worse, the better.”
From the point of view of the bolsheviks, things are going very well indeed. This is probably not 1917, but it certainly is a very good imitation of 1905.
There is an interesting book that you can find online called “The Truth of the Russian Revolution: The Memoirs of the Tsar’s Chief of Security and His Wife”.by Konstantin Ivanovich Globachev.
Of course we may say that such a book will be self-serving, but this fellow – who ran the secret police in St Petersburg before the revolution – constantly emphasizes the idea that the ruling classes even in the last months and days were oblivious to the realities of what was happening. It was difficult to get through to the Tsar (the Tsarina-Rasputin thing was a real problem), incompetents were occupying important posts and nobody was concerned with anything but his own advancement.
According to him – and this matches our experience today – the Bolshevik’s campaign of making things worse and of maintaining a never-ending chorus of slanders and demoralization was the most effective element of all. To me, it sounds like nothing so much as what we have got without remission from the media and antifa since November 2016.
““People are gardening like never before,” says Mark Dunau, owner of Mountain Dell, an organic farm near the New York-Pennsylvania border. Dunau has partially pivoted from supplying restaurants to selling vegetable starts to local home-owners trying their hand at small-scale agriculture.
“For the most part, he says, this isn’t part of a “The Good Life” backyard-cultivation comedy, but people trying to “cover their asses”.
““They’re afraid for their food supply. They’re thinking, if they have some land and you can’t go anywhere, they might as well try to grow something.””
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/06/food-insecure-americans-are-home-farming-as-covid-wreaks-havoc-on-agricultural-chain
Which is what I have argued: that growing food is not about the idealised Good Life (who wants to get stuck in a 1970’s sitcom?) but making up for likely deficiencies in government rations and turbulent times.
To my surprise, a very urban, and fairly wealthy, Italian friend who despises anything Green or to do with peasant life has started to think along the same lines.
They recently tried to acquire a rural property in England for about £1m which would be ideal for this strategy, and the bidding went crazy – a sign of the times……
People see empty shelves in grocery stores and they stop to think, “This could get worse before it gets better.” I don’t blame them.
The signs of the times are getting clearer to read even for those who haven’t been tuned in to Collapse issues …..
Grotesque economic/financial inequality (especially in the US) is one source of discontent and conflict. Money/wealth is a rough proxy for the ability to use available energy. In practice, the super-wealthy use only a fraction of “their” energy (or they would not remain super-wealthy). If the poor or middle class receive more money, they will tend to spend it (as will the military).
How far can financial/energy redistribution go before increased energy demand results in serious resource shortages and accelerated climate change?
Would a high wealth tax (and much reduced military spending), without accompanying increased government spending (effectively reversing money-printing), reduce inequality, and therefore discontent and violence?
There are 7.8 billion people in the world. I am not sure what country you live in, but I am guessing it is not the US, since you posted this comment at 3:17 am Atlanta time.
The problem is that at most, a particular government has a little control over its own wage and wealth distribution. If it can find citizens willing to vote in leaders who will change the tax structure to lead to a high tax on the wealthy, it can somewhat change the distribution. If the distribution becomes too even, there will be huge problem, however. Jobs will go away. People will not want to bother to go to work, because they will receive income no matter what they do. So, at most, a local government can take a smallish step toward higher taxes on the rich, or a small supplement so that the less well off can afford to buy groceries and other necessities.
I think of Australia when I hear the name “Graham.” Australia has only a population of 25.5 million (a tiny percentage of the world population), so whatever redistribution it does will have a minimal impact on world demand, climate change, and the problem of too low prices for commodities.
If you live in the UK, it has a population of 68 million. Also, its wage distribution is already somewhat equitable (say, compared, to the United States). And fixing through higher taxes and wage subsidies it would still have very little impact on the world as a whole. Commodity prices are to a significant extent world prices.
The real problem with wealth disparity is a problem of all of the poor people in Africa, South America, India, and many other parts of the world. No one is volunteering to give them money to buy cars, air conditioners, and well insulated homes. IEA forecasts assume that future “demand” growth will come from these people. This is how they get to their high global warming assumptions. Indirectly, models assume that someone could mine the coal from under the North Sea and bring it to these people, so that they can grow their economies.
This cannot really happen. There is no way to make whatever wealth there is in rich countries somehow transfer to poor countries in a way that creates prices high enough for coal (and still cheap enough for shipping) to make this kind of scenario work.
“The new wave of stimulus has both governments and central banks moving in sync to continue flooding lenders, markets and companies with cheap credit at an unprecedented pace.
“[But] there are… concerns that monetary policy can only do so much to revive growth before it loses its potency.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-06/guardians-of-the-world-economy-stagger-from-rescue-to-recovery
“The world is amidst a significant deflationary shock and extreme policy measures are warranted to prevent us from falling into the abyss.
“But there is no free lunch and these extreme measures will come at a longer-term cost to society, especially when you consider the less than ideal starting point for the current crisis: a massive debt overhang, large unfunded liabilities, and bloated central bank balance sheets.
“Time will tell how great the cost will be.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4352355-fighting-deflation-not-causing-inflation-yet
“You can already sense in the public debate over the economy that people are starting to lose the thread — viewing the slight rebound from epic collapse as a sign that a crisis has been averted. That certainly is the kind of optimism evident in the stock market, which is now down a mere 1.1 percent for the year.
“But there are clear signs that the collapse of economic activity has set in motion problems that will play out over many months, or maybe many years…
“The fabric of the economy has been ripped, with damage done to millions of interconnections — between workers and employers, companies and their suppliers, borrowers and lenders. Both the historical evidence from severe economic crises and the data available today point to enormous delayed effects.
““There’s a lot of denial here, as there was in the 1930s,” said Eric Rauchway, a historian at the University of California, Davis, who has written extensively about the Great Depression. “At the beginning of the Depression, nobody wanted to admit that it was a crisis. The actions the government took were not adequate to the scope of the problem, yet they were very quick to say there had been a turnaround.””
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/06/upshot/coronavirus-economic-crisis.html
“The reality is that the major economies of the world were already moving into a severe crisis by the end of last year, far worse than the Great Recession of 2008/09; moving in a direction similar to (or worse than) that of the 1930s.
“The crash seemed inevitable, Covid or no Covid. The lockdown has, of course, aggravated the already bad situation 10-fold.”
http://www.mainstreamweekly.net/article9469.html
“Business lobby groups in 18 countries forecast the global economy to contract 4 percent this year due to the impact of the new coronavirus outbreak, a South Korean industry association said Sunday.”
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200607000154
[For reference, 2009, the worst year of the GFC, saw a global contraction of just 0.1% (for the global economy as a totality we can loosely say that it is in recession if it is growing at less than 2.5% p/a).]
“Fidelity chief warns of global corporate solvency crisis:
“Fidelity International boss Anne Richards has warned that the asset management industry will struggle to provide enough capital to fix the solvency problems public businesses face as economies emerge from lockdown.”
https://www.ft.com/content/d6fd7d11-c06e-4e88-82a7-87465c84a120
It is hard to print enough money to keep all of the asset prices up!
Absolutely worth reading
A really good summary of the current situation in the global economy. The historical derivation is also dazzling. The predictions are plausible.
Unfortunately, he does not have much lower negative interest rates on his screen.
Downside: no mention of the energy problem. But you already know that from other publications.
All in all, it can be stated that difficult times are approaching human
The post belongs to mainstreamweekly.
Thanks, Frankly. I agree the author does a great job, the shortcomings you mention notwithstanding.
One silver lining the pandemic offers governments is that it obscures the fact that we were already in serious economic trouble when it struck. It is an easily digestible narrative that covers a multitude of sins and one that large sections of the media now seem to be swallowing.
The article is unusual in placing the pandemic in its proper economic context and worth reading for that alone.
I was talking about an upcoming crash back in November 2019. China was a country doing particularly badly. My talk in Hawaii was about this subject.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2019/12/08/recession-ahead-an-overview-of-our-predicament/
Right! There is a lot of denial going on.
The worst thing a “news outlet” can do is to have “half truth”. Some are lies, some are propaganda, and some are truth. This is the worst because you don’t know what to believe. If you know the media is lying all the time, then just assume the opposite is true. If that news outlet is always telling the truth, then take everything at face value. The most problematic is “half truth” because the person just does not know what is real and what is fake. Compound that with “no critical thinking” or “analytic skills”, you have a perfect storm for propaganda. The confusion surrounding the the people just shuts down the thinking part of the brain.
It is very prevalent. It has nothing to do with education level. In fact the higher educated you are, the more you believe these “half truth media”. I have personally encountered many of them who believe 100% what the government and the media say. It never crosses their mind to analyse and think for oneself what they have read. So, their mind are filled with half truth which they will steadfastly agree because the news said so. No questions are ever asked “Why”?
If people say that they don’t trust the figures given out by the labour department or unemployment numbers or any metrices presented by the government, why is it they believe the data from police showing that certain group of people tend to be incarcerated more? Why selectively believe in data or information given out by “Department A” of the government and say that “Department B” of the government is giving false data? Cherry picking what to believe so that you can support your cause? Do they ever allow you to count them? Do you trust them 100%. I don’t unfortunately. Do they allow you to audit Fort Knox? Why now? Why do they cover up many things? Why do they now allow you to check out certain things? Does anyone anywhere question “why?”
The issue of half truth is so endemic and so prevalent that it is actually destroying the very fabric of our civilization. 20 or 30 years ago, communication was not advanced and nobody really bothers about “being quick” or “real time”. So, it was no big deal back then but why now? When did “fake news” (this word) appear? 2016 during the USA presidential election. Do “fake news” ever happen in 1990s? Yes, there was but it was in a form of newspaper. There were also propaganda and news to influence you. However, there were some form of investigative journalism at that era and scandals were exposed.. Do we even have investigative journalism now? Where are the check and balance? They don’t have Google, FB or Twitter to filter news as they deem fit. Are the news media pandering to the government? Yes of course but not so much in the past. Right now, everyone can have their own blogs and their own online news, etc. So, the line that separates real news and fake news is gone. Real news can be twisted in such a way that it becomes distorted. Data from government are manipulated in every way to fit their agenda. If A is bad and B is good, the data and the write up will be done in such a way that A is bad even though B is not that good either.
Consider the following
1. Climate change
2. Renewable energy
3. Race / equal opportunity,
Are these being talked about so much in the 1980s or 1990s? No, not that much. Why? Because the news flow was slow and at that time it was quite prosperous and people don’t really worry about these things. Why now? Why item #1 and #2 suddenly disappeared from practically every news outlet since end of 2019 or just before COVID became an issue? We should continue to talk about this. Right? Why stop? Does it mean that if we stop talking, the problem will go away on its own? Does it mean that we continue talking about it, the thing will be solved? Why stop now? Why no hysteria surrounding these 2 topics? Why we are talking about #3 now after COVID is at the back burner? Isn’t #3 always there since time immemorial?
All these are narratives, the talking point that the government all over the world are controlling. Consider yourself in a game of mind control.
1. Are eggs good for health? You have studies saying 2 eggs is the maximum you should eat and another study says no limits to the number of eggs.
2. Hearty bypass is effective, and another study says no.
3. This product is good for this but another study says the opposite.
4. Data supports that A is good and another study says no it is not.
So, what do you believe in? Do you believe the data?
Consider the following headlines from ZH:
** 1200 Public Health Experts Advocate Mass Gatherings Because “White Supremacy” Is Bigger Threat Than COVID-19
**Buffalo Cops Who Shoved Elderly Protester Charged With Felony Assault; Mayor Calls Man ‘Agitator’
** “THESE NUMBERS ARE INCREDIBLE” Trump Booms After Job Report Shock: May Payrolls Soars By 2.5 Million, Unemployment Rate Drops, Crushing Bearish Expectations
These are all half truths. Can you spot which ones are the truth and which ones are lies? Even with critical thinking, it is extremely difficult to believe what you are going to read. Most people, instead of reading, will watch video and guess what? All the information are absorbed directly into the brain. No processing required.
Company selling me product A and they showed me the data that their product is excellent. Do I believe the data? A normal sane person would not because these data are used for making a profit. That is why we have the “review system” where feedback from customers are used as a gauge. Yes, it can be abused but if you have a large data set, then it is not easy to fake.
So, my question to many of you all here – if you see a data from certain police force (they may or may not have an agenda, we don’t know) that certain minority tends to have more issues with police, do you automatically believe it? Do you question why you have people telling you eggs are good or bad? Carbo is good or bad? Heart surgery is good or bad?
Bottom line, if it fits your narrative, you will use it blindly. It bypasses the part of the brain that is called “critical thinking and analysis”
I made a comment a few days ago saying that it is easy to know from the comments section that if someone can see the trees or the forest. What I get in respond? “sheer hubris” as one person said it in a GIF file. Have you ever talked to anyone who is such a pain in the a** ? Have you talked to a SJW, climate advocate or someone who is so focused on the cause that they don’t even see what they are fighting for? Do you think, if they decide to put it in words and come over to Gail’s blog and start talking that what Gail said is fake and renewables will solve all energy problems and climate change is really a big problem that needs urgent attention? Leonardo DiCaprio and Al Gore are the heroes of these people but when you confront them with facts by showing how big their houses are and their private jets (energy footprints), what do these people do? The pause for a short while and then they continue their crusades again. Totally ignoring what you have said. It is as though they are simulated human beings who just simply follow what their algorithms (brain) are.
How about those people whose job require them to be 100% bullish. Real estate people, economist, financial planners? It is always a good time to buy. Do you ever see one that is really “looking at the big picture or seeing the forest instead of the trees?” Not really. They don’t even see the trees. Will they come over and comment at OFW? No. They just cannot fit in. If they come over and comment, do you think you can identify them immediately as “totally impossible to see the forest and the trees”? If course, anyone can spot him or her in the comments section. From the way the person comments, you can see it. So, why “sheer hubris”?
Gail made a point that, the treeline may vary. There is some truth in it but generally, the tree line is more or less fixed. Either you see or you don’t. Consider the following example
NORMAL FLU – does it cause fever? No, flu does not cause fever. Fever is a response by your body to fight the virus. It elevates the body temperature so that is not ideal for the virus/bacteria/pathogen to survive and the human immunity system will attack the pathogen. So, if you take fever suppressing medication, does it really help you in your recovery? Do you think about that? I had an experience in China a decade ago where I could not find medication for my fever. I had to stay at the hotel, running extremely high temperature because I was shivering and very weak. With no one to help me, I just lay down in bed and waited for 2-3 days. The fever subsided rapidly and I was back to normal, in fact, I felt better. I took no medication. After that incident, I had complete faith in my immune system and I do not take any form of medication unless it is really required.
Assuming that you know why you have fever, do you still take medication to reduce fever? Yes, a large majority of the people will take the fever medication eventhough they know it is counter intuitive. The fever is the cause or effect of the infection? Are you targeting the wrong thing in your fight against the pathogen? Move on to the next paragraph :
Same thing that goes to riots. Riots, protest and violent overthrow of government are all part and parcel of human civilization. It is nothing new. What is the most basic underlying cause? Economic hardship. Nothing else.
Assuming a country that is very biased against certain group of people but the country is very prosperous and every one has a job and a car. Most of the people are spending money like no tomorrow. Velocity of money is very high and there are only few homeless people. More jobs chased after people. Bonuses are huge and shops are bristling with activity and sales are high. Everyone is happy. There are crimes and the police are very brutal against those who commit crimes. A few died in custody.
Question – what are the chances of people protesting the brutality of police? I will tell you – next to no one because they are all chasing after money, cars and luxury. They will be having holidays and the media will talk about luxury car, yacht or overseas travel. No one will bat an eye on the police brutality. The history of human civilization confirms that when times are good, no one cares and no one bothers. When times are bad, a small spark would cause a bonfire.
Same as in a marriage. The marriage counselor asks why the divorce? The wife says that it is because he did not put the toilet seat down. Is the divorce happening because of such menial issue? No, it is not. It is built up over a period and exploded due to a small issue. During good times, when money is flowing in and they have more money than required, these issues are suppressed but when bad times come, the divorce rates go up. It is because of the toilet seat or economic situation that is causing the divorce? The toilet seat is the spark that cause the divorce. It is NOT the cause of the divorce.
Ask yourself this question – will this riot be an issue if there are 5 job openings for every working adult? Will this happen if everyone is rich and can afford to spend on good food and holidays? Will this police brutality, white supremacy, race equality or whatever be even the topic of conversation if people are hopping jobs and doubling their salaries every 2 years?
Will the priests in Maya/Egypt/whatever old civilization face riots if there is enough food and prosperity? Same answer, different era.
This is what I mean by seeing the forest instead of the trees. The “race issue” is just a manifestation of the underlying social economic crisis, which in turn is related to energy issue or lack of. If you still continue to focus on race being the cause, then you are just looking at the trees. If you administer the medication (social equality to all, no police violence), it is like suppressing the fever and never address the main issue (your health is weak, should eat good food and exercise). With no jobs, no prospects, they will go to the streets again for some other reasons.
This idea applies to all. Climate change, renewable energy, equality, COVID19 lockdown, etc. 99.9% of the people just look at the trees because it is beyond their scope/knowledge/skill/mental capacity to look beyond the trees. That is the reason why there will be “no solution” because the solution they propose will not solve the problem.
Excellent piece CTG.
Interesting…. where I live there is massive building going on again and everyone talking again on how much their property how is worth in great smugness; Young people upset at having to move two towns away to afford a house. People with money in the stock market rubbing their hands together in glee. My president and jay powell taking a victory lap for their V RECOVERY. I know that Gail says that some places might do better than others in the collapse but I feel that when you take out one element the crash is everywhere. I don’t want to hold on to an idea and not be able to change my mind but I used to agree that we would be heading for deflation but with the U.S and the rest of the world “printing Money” to a large degree- I now see massive inflation or stagflation,
I keep hearing Bob Dylans “It’s all over now Baby Blue”
There is a massive amount of debt defaulting at the same time all of this money is being printed. We have $75 trillion of debt in the US alone. The amount of assets on the Federal Reserve balance sheet is $7 trillion.
There is also a huge amount of derivatives to default, which are not in the $75 trillion. I do not see runaway money printing leading to massive inflation.
Maybe it is a different inflation than you are thinking. Since 2008 we have seen a lot of inflation in housing, medical care, Cars, Education, services. Before 2008 A billion dollars would have been a lot of money; I saw up above you commenting that 28 billion is nothing for a bail out. I guess a better term for it will be stagflation. Do you think the FED will stop sending money out? I don’t see it they have said they will keep the faucets open full tilt and buy up a lot of the debt and make it disappear…….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9-rsQT4HScA&t=1415s
https://youtu.be/9-rsQT4HScA
I agree with this you tuber that Powell is probably a nice guy with good intentions but that just makes it easier to read when he is not telling the truth…..you need someone who is a politician in this role and they can lie without guilt!
All the funny money printing is just heading off massive deflation, the main goal appears to be to keep the asset prices high at all costs, keep the asset owners whole.
It won’t go on forever, but how long is the question?
As for half-truths, I’ve been watching videos of the protests in London.
The Guardian video showed the police charging on horseback to clear the street (and not in riot gear or using batons) which supports their White Capitalist Oppression narrative, but failed to show the mob stoning the police, attacking them and trying to spook the horses by throwing bicycles at them (how Green, riot bicycles!).
Their articles also glossed over the protester violence,and the failure to maintain social distance -this after bellyaching for months about higher death-rates among so-called BAME people.
Thankfully one can still view videos from different sources to try to gage just what did happen.
I am impressed by the moderation of the Met police in the face of provocation by these idiots.
Very good points, CTG.
There is an increased pressure to report the “right kind” of news as well, not to stray too far from concensus etc, to make sure the media outlet doesn’t get cut off from funding, sponsors, ad money. Similar to academic and research communities. It’s all a racket, nobody is interested in the objective truth, if such a thing even exists.
I responded negatively to your previous comment because I do not like one commenter telling another commenter that he can’t see the forest for the trees.
People are coming from different walks in life. They see different parts of the story. Maybe they think that the current situation can go on longer than you or I do, but they have good insights into some other issues. I have been wrong on how long the situation can go on. There is a wide range around what is “right.” There are also many parts of the story. People can have good insights on one part of the story, and less good insights on other parts of the story.
I would rather that commenters used different language. For example, I wouldn’t object to one commenter telling another that he is “too optimistic” or that he “misses important interactions.” I don’t like comments that suggest that there is something wrong with another commenter, even if it is only suggesting that the other commenter’s ability to see the forest for the trees, is lacking.
hmmm….wish you had this policy when Fast Eddie would personally attack anyone who not agree that the moon landing was fake and that covid is all fake… but better late then never….
I took down quite a few of his posts, after they went up.
This is a very nice policy, Gail. We all get a bit hot under the collar from time to time. In such cases, a little time out doesn’t hurt.
Gail, if for any reason you feel a need to respond “negatively” to any of my comments, please do so. You have my permission, and will later have my thanks. We all need a candid friend.
Thanks, excellent post.
But besides energy a thermodynamical system is also associated with entropy=a measure on how effectively the energy can be used to produce meaningful work compared to just heat.
These riots seems to quite clearly manifest the fact that USA and some other western nations have suffered badly in terms of entropy from multiculturalism and identity politics. Japan for instance does not suffer from these reasons (but of course from others). It could be the regions that handle their entropy most wisely that will suffer least from collapse . The importance of entropy may increase dramatically on the way downhill.
As an example of the issue you are talking about, an educational system that tries to handle a whole lot of diversity requires a huge amount of administration and specialized courses compared to one in which there is conformity on both the inputs and the output.
I went to a high school in a small town. I was surprised to find typing on my schedule my third year, out of a four-year program. When I asked the principal (who put these schedules together) why I was given typing, he said, “All girls need to take typing. If they go to college, they will need typing. If they don’t, a large share of jobs will require at least some typing.” Quite a few of the males were studying either agriculture or industrial arts. I don’t think that those tracks required typing. I took typing, but only got a B in it. My hand coordination is not up to fast typing. In retrospect, it was probably worthwhile that I had it. I needed to type term papers in high school as well.
I am torn here between two quotes:
……………………………………………………………………………….
“When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.’
’The question is,’ said Alice, ‘whether you can make words mean so many different things.’
’The question is,’ said Humpty Dumpty, ‘which is to be master — that’s all.”
………………………………………………………………………………
“Contrariwise,’ continued Tweedledee, ‘if it was so, it might be; and if it were so, it would be; but as it isn’t, it ain’t. That’s logic.”
……………………………………………………………………………..
So yes, there is a problem related to epistemology, or how we know what we know and the degrees of certainty that we attach to our claims of knowing. This used to be an important part of any university education. There are domain-related ways of knowing, these are related to our methodologies. When someone studies for his doctorate, he has to show how he knows what he is claiming now to know and this is one reason why theses have literature reviews and methodology sections.
Unfortunately, many university courses – and universities are producing our “laders” – no longer give any emphasis at all to the “how we know and how strongly we know” part of education and there are entire domains and “disciplines” (there’s a joke) in the Humanities that eschew the notion that there is any viable agreed methodology at all. For some domains this is true (there are no agreed methodologies for the study of Literature, not inclusive of Linguistics). And for career-subjects that have no real research agenda, something like Journalism, which has no place in a University.
Yet it is these people, the intellectually and emotionally walking dead of the humanities who are controlling the minds of the rest of society.
Of course, in saying that, I tip my hat to the master-discipline of Psychology, because all of us now live every day under the tyranny of a powerful knowledge base on human nature and human manipulation that it has created these last 100 years and that the media and governments are using with incredible skill to “nudge” us, and to manipulate and control us into doing things that are overwhelmingly against our best interests.
But as for the average or even “educated” person today?: not the faintest ability to think critically, to ask pertinent questions of him or herself or even of others. They are just empty vessels, waiting to be filled with whatever poison the mass media and entertainment induistres case to pore in.
Kim, when I was a schoolboy, there was indeed an established methodology for the study of literature. By a guy called Aristotle.
I agree with Ed; this is an excellent comment,CTG.
One minor point, Influenza symptoms can include fever, as well as chills, headache, muscle pain, runny nose, sore throat, extreme tiredness and cough. Children may also experience nausea, vomiting or diarrhea. Although infections from other viruses may have similar symptoms, those due to the influenza virus tend to be worse.
The novel coronavirus causing the current COVID-19 pandemic would appear to be an exception to this general rule, as are SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. Most other coronaviruses that infect humans tend to cause only mild symptoms.
Absolutely!
continuation to my earlier posting: (please merge both postings)
PHES can also meet the seasonal demands when solar or wind or run of hydro is not available where water and energy storage are complimentary. The countries which are above 35N altitude can import electricity from their southern neighbors. But Canada, Russia, Sweden, Norway, Finland has surplus hydro and wind power with capacity to export seasonally to other European/ USA countries . North Africa can also export renewable electricity to southern Europe at affordable price. These countries also have surplus biomass to generate seasonally required electricity. European electricity grid connected to Russia and north Africa can meet all the energy needs of Europe from renewable energy sources throughout the year. Similarly, USA grid connected to Canada, Mexico, etc can meet all the energy needs of North America continent throughout the year. In some cold countries like Iceland and Greenland, geo-thermal renewal energy is available to meet all their energy needs.
In worst case, electricity can be generated during the winter in Arctic region from the temperature difference between cold atmospheric air and warm sea water (as high as 72 deg F) Refer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_thermal_energy_conversion#Cold_air/warm_water_conversion
There are very few countries with thin populations below 35S altitude and these countries are rich in hydro power which can meet all energy needs throughout the year supplemented with storage type hydro plants.
More related links:
Elon Musk Should Build Pumped Hydro With Tesla Energy, The Boring Co., & Coal Miners https://cleantechnica.com/2019/11/09/elon-musk-should-build-pumped-hydro-with-tesla-energy-the-boring-co-coal-miners/
Race Heats Up For Title Of Cheapest Solar Energy In The World https://www.forbes.com/sites/dominicdudley/2019/10/17/cheapest-solar-energy-in-the-world/#3ce13bb94772
Abu Dhabi announces world’s lowest tariff for solar power https://www.arabnews.com/node/1666846/business-economy
China and Spain are leading in building CSP with thermal storage in Morocco, Dubai, Chile, Greece, Cyprus, China, etc.
CSNP to build 1GW Concentrated Solar Power +Storage Project in Northwest China (north west China is outside the tropical belt with severe winter but endowed with sunshine). http://helioscsp.com/csnp-to-build-1gw-concentrated-solar-power-storage-project-in-northwest-china/
Are you not aware of how impoverished, unstable and corrupt North Africa is?!
Or should European states now embark on a new Energy Imperialism t secure their renewable future?
Even in the past, they needed local elites to maintain their empires. And with climate change and the consequences of bad agricultural practices, there will be massive crop failures in this region, collapse of cities, etc.
The problem with most technical ‘solutions’ is that they entirely ignore geopolitical and cultural factors, which, of course, determine everything.
There is always the assumption, too, that someone somewhere will be making all The parts for Renewables.
In other words, it assumes the continuation of Globalism – most doubtful.
leave anything lying around in n africa and it gets covered with a dusting of sand
and what do you need to clean it off?
water
and what are they short of?
water
And thats assuming the warring factions there will be content to let our solar panels just sit there to feed infidel aircon systems and whatever
They will occupy the solar panels and demand ransoms.
When Hobbes talked of lives nasty, brutish, and short, it was to support his argument that men needed strong government lest everyone be at the mercy of the worst. Hobbes lived a very long time for any age (1588 – 1679) and while he lived through the big English Civil War of that century (there had been many earlier civil wars) he did not experience the unutterably violent chaos of the 13th, 14th and 15th centuries, where the nobility fought largely with the aid of mercenaries. But of course he would have been well aware of it.
It was during Hobbes’ lifetiime that Oliver Cromwell introduced the New Model Army, which was new and model in that it was a first in not being essentially a mercenary army. Such an army would not – ostensibly – prey on the citizenry when not at war. But there are no free lunches and of course the new standing army was very expensive and entailed a large and ever-rising tax burden. All of this was coupled, for the common people, with the burdens of enclosure and a more “efficient” English agriculture.
Anyway, my point is that if we want an advanced and especially a safe society, we have to be able to afford to maintain centralized power with the will to deploy a strong military or enforcement apparatus, not even necessarily against foreigners, but against anarchic elements of our own country. Will this produce hierarchies and unfairness? Absolutely. Is that worthwhile to avoid anarchy? Perhaps we should ask Libyans which they would prefer, Gaddaffi or the lot they are suffering under now.
“electricity can be generated during the winter in Arctic region from the temperature difference between cold atmospheric air and warm sea water (as high as 72 deg F)”
The sea doesn’t get that warm even in the summer. In the Gulf stream. Outside the Gulf Stream it freezes…
72 deg F is the temperature difference between sea water and the ambient air when sea water is at 32 deg F and ambient air at minus 40 deg F. Also see the link provided earlier.
All countries lying between 35 S and 35 N altitudes can meet seasonal fluctuations in the energy demands satisfactorily from solar PV / wind / run of hydro power. Other countries may also import renewable energy from these countries if economical. The links are given below:
Global resource potential of seasonal pumped hydropower storage for energy and water storage, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-14555-y#Fig2l
Interactive map showing the feasible locations of PHES projects. https://nationalmap.gov.au/renewables/#share=s-oDPMo1jDBBtwBNhD
A medium size state in India has nearly 637 GW PHES which can work both in daily and seasonal needs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_sector_of_Andhra_Pradesh
Getting to 100% renewables requires cheap energy storage. But how cheap? https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/8/9/20767886/renewable-energy-storage-cost-electricity
When I looked up 35N to 35S latitudes, I first came across this map. The lines really are at about 30N and 30S latitude. This is map from the National Ocean Service of the US NOAA.
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/horselatitudes.jpg
According to the page this map is found on:
The horse latitudes are regions located at about 30 degrees north and south of the equator. These latitudes are characterized by calm winds and little precipitation. So don’t count on wind. Don’t count on growing many crops (except for India, some of Brazil, some of China).
The 35th parallel defines the northern border of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. It passes south of Los Angeles, and north of San Diego. It runs through Morocco and the northern edge of Egypt. It passes through the top if India.
The 35th parallel south touches the southern tip of Africa and comes close to the southern tip of Australia.
There is relatively little of current industry in these latitudes, except some southern Chinese industry and industry in India.
Just Dumb Rigged Luck…
Bloomberg
Dumb Money Is Looking a Lot Smarter in Never-Ending Stock Rally
Katherine Greifeld and Claire Ballentine
June 5, 2020, 1:36 PM EDT
(Bloomberg) — The scores of individual investors who piled into what seemed like an endlessly falling stock market are winning big now.
The S&P 500 has soared more than 43% since March 23, the start of a torrid rebound from the rout that sent stocks spiraling around the globe amid the coronavirus pandemic. In the months since, a flood of fiscal and monetary support combined with economic reopening optimism has fueled gains in even the mostly badly battered corners of the market.
That’s been a boon for the growing ranks of day traders. Retail brokerages including Charles Schwab Corp. and TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. posted record account sign-ups and trading volume in the first quarter as individuals tried to catch the bottom, prompting warnings from Wall Street professionals in the process. However, with the S&P 500 just a hair away from turning positive for th year, the retail uprising’s timing looks downright prescient.
“Young investors have been putting money in the market, and in the short run, that seems to be good timing,” said Mike Skillman, chief executive officer of Cadence Capital Management. “The evidence in history for folks that day-trade their own accounts on average is not very good, so we’ll see how that plays out over a full cycle, but in the short term, that looks like a pretty good decision.”
That’s been particularly true in the exchange-traded fund universe. The US Global Jets exchange-traded fund has swelled to over $1 billion in assets and soared nearly 58% in the past months as “bored” millennials pile in. The United States Oil Fund LP — another favorite among retail traders — has returned over 34% in that time frame.
Those young day traders rule👍😜
I wonder how much of the total upswing came from day traders.
I suppose they could borrow money inexpensively to gamble in the market.
Gail has been consistent in projecting wind and solar power are not solutions because of their intermittent availability and costly energy storage systems such as battery storage (BESS). Recent studies in Australia and Sweden show that there is plenty of economical high head pumped hydroelectric energy storage systems (PHES) in excess of ultimate requirements in many nations to harness solar and wind resources. These long life (more than 50 years) PHES occupy less land than the equivalent BESS housed in a three storied enclosure/building. These PHES cost (<40 US$ per KWh) less than the land and building cost of equivalent BESS. India is one of such country with these cheap resources to prosper faster by eliminating present energy imports. Wages will not go up in India but those wages will have more purchasing capacity since more energy availability /consumption (not fossil fuels but sun energy) without external impediments dictates the growth of economy .
We need to store excess solar from summer to winter. This takes lots and lots of storage. It is cold and dark in the winter; that is when we need the benefit of the solar from summer.
Do you have links to those reports? Do they talk about the magnitude of the problem?
Dear Gail, I have made an attempt to evaluate that aspect for France with a set of rules of three: https://jancovici.com/en/energy-transition/renewables/100-renewable-electricity-at-no-extra-cost-a-piece-of-cake/
It is a “fast and dirty” calculation, but the conclusion I derive is that we will never ever complete such a program “on time” (if ever!) to avoid the direst consequences of climate change if the question is replacing coal power plants, and even less oil depletion if we have to add on top the means to convert to electricity of end-uses presently ensured by oil (mobility to begin with).
So I am afraid I share your conclusion on the fact that less energy coming without being managed (and even with) will lead to economic contraction, violence and life expectancy decrease. It is a challenge to bring these points to being discussed with political leaders…
I wonder what is the sticking point for politicians in this regard: ideology, lack of scientific training and competence, inability to envisage profound change from the narrative of Progress?
Thanks for sharing a link to the very fine analysis you did in 2018 of the feasibility of going to 100% renewables in France. It does indeed take a lot of calculations to see what is goes wrong in such a situation. The academic journals seem to be filled with less comprehensive calculations, and lots of areas of wishful thinking. Your analysis is about 11,000 words, with many exhibits.
People don’t understand how big a change needs to be made. Regarding the need for storage, you say:
Really enjoyed your analysis. Well written and easy to follow.
Jean-Marc Jancovici is an absolute rock star in this space. As far as discussions with political leaders go, this video of one of his presentations from 2013 made me laugh out loud (though I’m not sure whether that was its intended effect). Check out the faces on the Eurocrats:
https://youtu.be/Fb_GNIa2joE
Gail, above and below 30 degrees latitude say your statement about summer versus winter is true. Maybe industry will move to the equatorial region.
You may have missed a fundamental point
if industry ‘moves’ into certain latitudes, then:
A —-the resources that feed the industry must be transported there
and
B —-The products of that industry must be transported to where there are wanted
Good points. People with the technical capabilities to operate/manage this industry must live in these latitudes. Schools likely will need to be available in the area with this endpoint in mind.
there’s a great parable movie ‘The Mosquito Coast’ starring Harrison Ford about a genious who invented a cheap way to make ice and decides to construct an ice plant in the tropics, on the Mosquito Coast in Belize. too bad his genious did not extend to the economics of supply and demand. things spin out of control and he ends up using his invention as a weapon of self-defense, in true Harrison Ford adventure style.
Gail, it depends where you are talking about. Here in Australia there are places with as much sun in winter as in summer, so no need for seasonal storage at all. I would think that sun hours in places like New Mexico would not have vast differences between seasons with correctly angled solar panels.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwigpsuE9O_pAhXRxTgGHV6cDsQQFjACegQIARAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Frredc.nrel.gov%2Fsolar%2Fpubs%2Fredbook%2FPDFs%2FNM.PDF&usg=AOvVaw2voXjyK0o-Bq8QgTtF7gGG
Looking at that Albuquerque data, using latitude plus 15 degrees of tilt (fixed tilt = longer life, no moving parts) gives a yearly average of 6.2 hrs/d, with a seasonal variance from 6.6hrs/d in summer to 5.5hrs/d in winter, and that is at a latitude of 35 degrees North. Go closer to the equator for a better result.
You appear to be locked into negative thinking about renewables instead of looking at solutions to the supposed problems. We still have enough cheap FF energy to create a renewable future, using pumped hydro seawater, not batteries, and locating the renewables in the correct places.
However ‘we’ certainly appear unwilling to try and convert at all. I think it is more the self organizing system prefers to just use the cheap energy for consumption and let the future take care of itself. Short termism always seems to be our collective archilles heel.
If you are using solar panels to try to heat your home in cool climates, you need a lot of stored energy, because of the massive energy needs for home heating. If you happen to find a sunny, warm area fairly close to the equator, perhaps this need can be reduced. Or if you can cut down trees and burn them for heat (at least temporarily, until the supply depletes), you can eliminate the solar to heat part of the problem.
Most people can live without air conditioning.
I think the comment above about PHES in Australia maybe referring to the study here. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544217309568
This suggests the use of “off-river” hydro and the same people have done analysis suggesting there are many, many suitable sites world wide.
I am not a scientist or engineer, just an interested Australian. I have tried to research this “off-river” concept further, but have found no reference to it outside the work of Andrew Blakers, the lead on this report.
There has also been a concept paper produced in Australia a few years ago about pumped hydro using seawater and the height of the cliffs over the Great Australian Bight (about 90metres I believe). This would be a significant distance from population centres (several hundred miles at least). I cannot find a link to this paper.
Neither of these papers have had much press in Australia, both published a few years ago,
The Blakers paper was discussed on a few non-Australian blogs when published – http://euanmearns.com/?s=australia https://trustyetverify.wordpress.com/?s=australia+blakers
It is my idea, that I’ve been trying to promote for a few years. The solar insolation throughout the year is magnificent in the area across the Nullarbor and for hundreds of kilometers to the North. The wind resource is also excellent, plus the height above sea level and the proximity of the ocean.
There would need to be HVDC transmission lines built both east and west, which would be a significant cost, but it is all necessary.
I’m not talking in terms of doing it for Clim.ate Change, but in terms of more expensive energy in the future. At some point an attempt at renewables needs to be made. If humanity waits until real limits in both coal and natural gas kick in, to build such large projects will become too expensive in energy terms. It would take decades to build, but could entirely power the Australian grid many times over when you do the math.
Gail HVDC can move enormous amounts of power over long distances, so not really an issue taking the generated power to colder climates, if humanity is prepared to spend the effort and energy in attempting to provide an energy future.
I’m starting to come around to the idea that it is not resource limits that is preventing a renewable future, but humanity that has put it in the too hard basket so we will coll.apse through indifference to the future. There are always good excuses for doing nothing, like the people over there wont allow us, this boundary, that border etc, that government wont allow etc. If energy spent went from cruises and holidays, new mansions, etc, there would be plenty of energy to build a renewable future.
I’m talking about what is possible, but I agree with you that it is not probable.
There is a huge energy cost of building and maintaining HVDC power lines. Part of the problem is preventing and fighting fires. These transmission lines need to be scaled to the maximum transmission, not the average transmission, so on average, their use is much less than 100%.
The output of these transmission lines is not very useful either, without an incredibly huge set of battery backup, storing output for months. These is a belief that hydroelectric can be used for balancing wind and solar, but its quantity and ability are fairly limited. In most parts of the world, hydroelectric is very seasonal. It also varies greatly from year to year. Regions cannot build infrastructure to rely on it.
Real limits to coal and natural gas have already started to kick in. They are low commodity prices. These low prices are also limiting what can be spent on hydroelectric as well. You still seem to cling to the belief that if we have the technology and the resource seems to be available, somehow prices will rise to allow its production. This simply isn’t true in a networked economy. The use of too much technology leads to too much wage disparity, and this wage disparity leads to very low commodity prices of all kinds.
Gail you keep going on about batteries, when they are not needed ….
“The output of these transmission lines is not very useful either, without an incredibly huge set of battery backup, storing output for months.”
The pumped seawater hydro scheme IS the battery. There is no need for months of storage either as the solar and wind production in the correct locations is fairly consistent throughout the year. There is not a limit to how much seawater can be used.
The electricity can then be taken to the colder areas via HVDC, even under the sea, like happens with Basslink, where there is not much danger of fires.
“somehow prices will rise to allow its production. This simply isn’t true in a networked economy. The use of too much technology leads to too much wage disparity, and this wage disparity leads to very low commodity prices of all kinds.”
Which brings the problem back to not being one of resources at all!!
It is all about the human condition with the way we do things. Our entire economic modelling framework is incorrect with what is deemed important. Now, is important, the future be dam.med it can take care of itself.
The argument appears to be we are no better than yeast, consuming all resources then dying out, yet the mere existence of modern civilization would seem to indicate otherwise. The type of social cooperation we have to have, too live together the way we do, too develop the technology and communication of today seem to also indicate a species that is capable of much more than just survival of the fittest.
There are plenty of vast expenditures that do not make an economic return, the US military being a particular case, the bankers on Wall street needing trillions in bailouts being another, so cost or price with dollars appears to be irrelevant, if the desire is there.
I will believe the pumped seawater schemes when I see them. Has anyone stopped to figure out what size that they would need to be to store electricity for months, and the quantity of transmission lines that would be needed to service? Where would we get all the materials from? How would this system be maintained? Would there be a danger of flooding nearby areas, if the system were not properly maintained? Where would the land for these huge lakes/seas come from? How would it be paid for?
Finally! Thank you Psile!
BLS alters jobs report, changes data, and hides millions of job losses. Colour me surprised. It’s all about jamming the stock market, that’s the only trick left to those at the top.
Jobs Report Was A Lie, Record Business Creation While Most Were Closed Millions Of Job Losses Hidden
https://unicornyard.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/What-does-unicorn-poop-look-like-rainbows.jpeg
There was much fanfare over yesterday’s Jobs report from the BLS yet this was one of the worst alterations in BLS history as they hid millions of job losses using a few tricks and even added extra for good measure. We attempt to break down the report yet we’ll begin with the addendum on the report itself which detailed some major changes they were instructed to make which are clearly performed to soften what was supposed to be one of the worst jobs reports in history expectations were for 8 million job losses.
So how did we end up adding jobs well it has to do with the way they typically calculate business opening and closings and the changes resulted in record business creation the reason being they just removed most of the businesses whos employee counts went to 0 meaning almost all of the businesses that were shut down.
Funny how just ignoring all of the effects of the actual economic realities can make it appear like the economy was on a firm footing. This is a plain lie and it’s crazy they even called a press conference in advance to celebrate what was called amazing numbers. I think this is immoral and is actually encouraging risk based on lies.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
this is his take on the BLShit:
“Not So Happy, That News Was Not Particularly Credible, Given: Major Prior-Period Downside Revisions; Unusually Low Response Levels; Revised Methodologies and Seasonal Adjustments; Counting 4.9 Million May Unemployed as “Employed” (the Third Month of Acknowledged Misreporting); and details Running Meaningfully Counter to New Claims, Irrespective of Definitional Conflicts”
his calculation:
“May 2020 ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment is 34.0%, 36.5% net of BLS errors”
“As millions of Americans return to work amid the worst economic crisis in a generation, they’re unexpectedly discovering their old positions are far more burdensome than they used to be.
“Their hours have been cut, their pay has been slashed and their responsibilities are now magnitudes greater. And their job security — despite President Trump’s recent proclamations about an economy on the mend — remains anything but guaranteed.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/06/workers-pay-cuts-coronavirus/
Job security is a big issue. We are nowhere near herd immunity. And the ideas for preventing disease spread are terribly burdensome.
The Shadow Stat numbers show very much higher numbers. The thing that people have been rejoicing about is that fact that the latest numbers show a change in trend. This is true, even on the Shadow Stat numbers. Other people ignore how terribly high the numbers are.
Really the US seems to be almost in what one might call a Soviet state of propaganda and faked statistics.
‘No statistician can be trusted to report with honesty and accuracy that on which his job depends’.
Obviously, the BLS had a gun put to its head to “get the job done”, and not for the first time lately, because a lot’s at stake, not least of which is Trump’s re-election prospects, but also for the continuation of the status quo, which was already on very shaky ground economically, heading into the pandemic. However, they hid their statistical manipulations in plain sight, I guess out of feelings of guilt?
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/86482
COVID-19 Sequelae Can Linger for Weeks
— Even patients with mild cases describe persistent fatigue, trouble breathing, cardiac issues
The problems with Covid-19 aren’t just those who die, but also for recovered patients the fight to feel good again goes on for weeks, even months. Here’s a few examples:
“DeSanti:
“47 days after first testing positive for COVID-19, his symptoms have yet to completely subside. He still suffers weakness, a daily low-grade fever, shortness of breath, increased heart rate, and the constant anxiety that his illness will worsen yet again.”
“More than 230,000 people in the U.S. have recovered from COVID-19, according to Johns Hopkins University. But like DeSanti, Mixon & Perlo, many have lingering symptoms long after their initial infection — ranging from fatigue and muscle aches to rashes and heart issues.”
Mixon:
“Chest pressure prompted Mixon to return to the hospital. An x-ray revealed ground glass infiltrates on her lower left side, but doctors said it looked like whatever she had was clearing up. The pressure remained. “That lasted about 3 or 4 weeks,” Mixon said. “The chest pressure was just still there lingering, and it wouldn’t go away.” Mixon says she has not fully recovered, suffering dull, persistent headaches that she didn’t have before.”
Perlo:
“Still another patient with prolonged symptoms is Evan Perlo, a 36-year-old psychotherapist from Los Angeles. Around the time that he was tested for COVID-19 on March 16, Perlo experienced fatigue, body chills, and nausea, a wooziness he had not felt before. It became difficult to breathe on his daily walks, his ability to concentrate was impaired, and it took a toll on his mental health, he said.”
“Around 8 weeks after he first felt symptoms, Perlo told MedPage Today that those symptoms are finally starting to subside. Yet, the sense of uncertainty around how long it will take to return to full physical health has been a challenge. “That in itself became like a source of grief,” Perlo said.”
There’s a divide on how people see this virus, with many in a cavalier way tossing caution to the wind, while others are rightfully, I think, very concerned about getting something potentially deadly or taking a very long time to recover from with uncertainty about whether or not they will ever feel like they did before contracting Covid-19.
Yes, but only one out of 10 or 20 infections are detected and counted as cases, and most of them are more or less benign. Ugly situations could be between 2 and 5%, and deaths are between 0.5 and 1%
“Ugly situations could be between 2 and 5%…”
2 to 5 % therefore means that this virus is a hugely significant health risk…
I had those symptoms in late January/early February – not very nice, but not that bad either. It was the feverishness which really stood out as odd.
But Evan Perlo needs to get a back-bone: ‘Grief’? Good God! He hasn’t lost a leg or something, he’s not in a wheel-chair or blind.
What’s happened to men these days?
Frankly ,
I did not read much/most of your post but this caught my eye, “System crash because everyone is involved in the game.”
I have posted at length about education, it is changing, and it is networking, it is happening in plain sight and the lock down has hastened the inevitable. Home schooling is very effective for those able to learn and for many trades it has been from father to son, mother to daughter for centuries. Now it is moving from a few outliers to mainstream and very fine college education is possible without going to a campus.
Manufacturing is moving back into the home, incredible products can be manufactured, there are some areas that require scale, but many do not. The tax advantages of working from home are incredible and in a way it is very Marxian, the worker gets a return on his capital and there is no employment tax on capital. This was one of the tenants of Marx if I understand correctly, he saw the state owing the capital, more and more it is the individual owing the capital he personally uses.
Marx called religion “the opiate of the masses.” Maybe he was right, but it works and it adapts to the surroundings in which humans find themselves. It is much less destructive than fentanyl.
Secular humanism has been extremely destructive to the masses, indeed it seems very “racist” to me. That is not a cheap shot, it correlates well with anecdotal observation.
All the best to you in your search,
Dennis L.
Reply to myself:
The idea is change is happening, they system is already changing before us and two examples were sited. For some change is a crash, for others it is change, returns on capital are changing, some is obsolete and will crash, some is rising.
Perhaps a “Facebook” type of change is right infront of us and is happening, at some point it becomes a “network effect.”
Dennis L.
Silvio Gesell really had nothing to do with Karl Marx. He wanted a free economy. Free entrepreneurs. With fair conditions for everyone. By eliminating the positive interest.
Marx, on the other hand, wanted to control the negative effects of interest rates on the economy and the vast majority of employees by nationalizing companies.
Keyword: Expropriates the expropriators (expropriate the expropriators). See communist manifesto.
It’s really not compatible with each other.
Good points, Dennis!
Part 1 again.
Afterwards part 2
Nothing is for nothing part 1
The world is upside down. Not only since the Corona crisis. Enormous efforts are required every day to maintain this condition.
Those who practice yoga and practice standing upside down, in yoga the exercise is called Shirshasana, know what I mean. The smallest gust of wind, the slightest carelessness, Kawumm … – landed rudely on the yoga mat.
But practice makes perfect. The Kawumm …, in the figurative sense of the crash, occurs less and less. You have learned to keep your attention.
But not even a master of yoga would come up with the idea of keeping this state endless. The exercise actually only serves to change the perspective. Serves as a training of the mind.
But afterwards it is always necessary to return; that is: to get up again.
But our world is always upside down. The condition is chronic. Even more, standing upside down is now considered a natural state.
But since he is not, there are a lot of people who feel it. They feel increasingly uncomfortable, feel overwhelmed, insecure people look for the mistake in themselves. Some despair so much that they brutally elude standing upside down.
But anyone who manages to stand on their own two feet will shortly thereafter feel excluded. Is no longer understood. Is an outsider.
The majority, however, tries to come to an arrangement. Believe the elites, the politicians, the economists, leading media representatives and the company bosses who assure that the situation is completely normal.
And even the critical voices (yes, there are), who feel the fallacy, deal endlessly with the statements of the elites.
Hi! Don’t switch off now. Hold on.
Now it’s about getting everything back on its feet. With the help of the Bible.
The Bible?
Yes, hard to believe.
It goes back in time. Quite far. Roughly three thousand years. To the old testament. To the book Genesis. To Abraham and Melchizedek to Genesis chapter 14, verse 18-20.
https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=genesis+14&version=CSB
It follows that Melchesedik is the high priest of God. Abraham, as a blessed one, is a believer in God. And as such, he hands Melchizedek the tithe of the loot.
If you want to know where the spoils of war came from, just read the verses in front of it.
Genesis Chap. 14, verses 18-20 is, to my knowledge, the first mention of tithe in the Bible.
Since there is no previous text, it can be assumed that tithing was handed down orally before the Bible. And thus must be accepted as the first obligation of a believer in God towards God.
Except for the commandment in Genesis chapter 8, verse 4, “However, living flesh, still connected to its blood, you should not eat.” A commandment that I think is related to the tithing.
There is also further evidence of voluntary tithing, which affects Jacob. Mentioned in Genesis chapter 28, verses 20-22.
I now come from the first obligation of a believer in God to put this obligation in writing, and thus to the law.
As the law, tithe is first mentioned in Leviticus, chapter 27, verses 32-34, in the third book of Moses.
The most interesting thing about this text is the precise definition of the procedure for the survey. Since it is mentioned that animals are not allowed to be exchanged, there were probably people who circumvented the law and wanted to circumvent it even before it was written down.
Even more interesting is the mention that a twenty percent surcharge was due when paying with money.
So those who paid with money had to give up twelve percent a year.
The tithe collectors were the temple servants, the Levites, who in turn received ten percent of the tithe for their work and again had to give ten percent of this tithe to the priesthood (Aaron and Aaron’s descendants).
The question that now arises: what actually happened to all the remaining eighty-eight to ninety percent of the cattle that were brought in, all the fruit and vegetables, all the money?
The answer to that is really startling. There was a festival at the tithing site. A huge festival where everyone was allowed to eat it all. Always with the proviso of thanking God for his benevolence.
Benevolence? That is the question now. What should tithing be if people got a good portion of it back, according to God’s will? Why this strange construct?
Perhaps this thought will help.
The priesthood, as well as the Levites, were in the former God state (I am the Lord your God), the elite of the state and could therefore decide on the direction in which the community should steer.
So the Levites and priests were at the same time something like the central banker and government in one.
In any case, if you follow his mention in the Bible, the tithe shows a logical development. And is always the focal point of the action. It is not for nothing that the prophets repeatedly urge them to keep God’s laws. Which suggests that tithing, as God wished, usually did not work. Which was probably also due to the kings that God had appointed at the people’s request (they wanted a king, like all the peoples around them).
OK, you can have it, God said, but be aware that the tithe is no longer due to me, but to the king.
So once again the question at the end of the first part of the post “Nothing is for nothing”: why did God so urgently and so emphatically demand tithing?
the world is only upside down because the Australian aborigines didn’t sail to europe and discover it
Simple when you stop to work it out
Lol
In heaven you can play the role of court jester. I you want.
Finally, the true reality become evident.
Nothing is for nothing – part 2
Actually, the answer to the question asked: why is tithing? Easy to answer. But believe me, the answer is difficult to get into your head.
We are all shaped by what surrounds us, what we have been taught and what we have our own experiences with. And none of us can say that he has no experience in dealing with money.
Money moves us. Don’t leave us alone.
Johann Wolfgang von Goethe writes in Faust: Everything is pressing for gold, everything depends on gold. Oh poor!
The whole Faust of Goethe is permeated by the money topic. In the second part also of the impending state bankruptcy. And of course caught by the moral struggle of men between Mephisto and God.
We all know the fight. One way or another.
Many of the problems that mankind currently has could be solved with a completely different kind of money. And as God promises in the Bible texts, we would then have him on our side. With rich harvests and peace in the country. And with justice between people.
That’s why I’m a fan of God, even more a supporter of God.
One does not have to be a believer for the following solution. Reason is enough.
It was in 1994 when I noticed a book in a three-hour nightly broadcast on public radio, the author (Peter Kafka) of which brought up thoughts that really upset me at the time.
I then started reading. Thought. Read more. And at some point I knew that’s it.
Another book, written by Margrit Kennedy, was published in Germany in 1995 and, in my opinion, is the best work I know as an introduction.
And for most readers here, not to be scoffed at, it also appeared in English.
Attention: 58 pages
https://www.kennedy-bibliothek.info/cx-content/uploads/bibliothek/GeldbuchEnglisch.pdf
findable:
https://www.kennedy-bibliothek.info/home/
Unfortunately, Margrit Kennedy is no longer alive. But her CV does exist in Wikipedia (engl.).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margrit_Kennedy
The book – Interest and Inflation free Money – suggests that central bankers should charge an annual fee for all cash and any deposits in simple bank accounts. She speaks of about 5-6%.
So it differs from God’s demand, who demanded 12% when the tithing was paid.
The difference is serious, but not nearly as big as that between zero and minus five to minus six percent. Whereby I would rather be for the divine specification.
Result of this central bank operation: the basis of the interest calculation would change.
More specifically, the rate of return.
Result of this central bank operation: the basis of the interest calculation would change.
The basis for calculating the interest is then not 100% but only 94-95%. With the divine application only 88%.
And that would have tremendous effects. It would be a matter of huge amounts of money worldwide, which would be distributed differently every year.
The losers in this central bank action would be today’s winners, the money elites.
Which also explains that apart from central bankers (who have been working intensively on it since the 2008/9 financial crisis), hardly anyone knows about it. And the few who report about it and get attention face the violent headwind.
It is not an easy matter. But once understood, a real eye opener.
Margrit Kennedy referred to the work of Silvio Gesell.
His CV also at the English-language Wikipedia.
Suggestion: Read the “Opinions of Gesell”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silvio_Gesell
And now also the link to his main work
Silvio Gesell (1929)
New Economic Order (translated by Philip Pye). Berlin 1929.
zum PDF-Download
This is reading material for many, many hours.
And imagine; in this system it is even possible to shrink without breaking it down. What is unthinkable in our current system. Keyword: system crash.
System crash because everyone is involved in the game, all pay tribute to the same system that has to grow at all costs so as not to cause any distortions as we are currently experiencing.
Individual countries have been hit countless times in the past. State bankruptcies without end.
Only this time, because everyone is intertwined, it will ultimately affect everyone. Unless we humans in democratic countries stop this madness. And get back on our feet.
A huge number of the current problems could then dissolve into nothing and create space for a new way of thinking. A way of thinking that also respects the limits of growth and resources.
I don’t want to hide the fact that I doubt that this will happen. If the Vatican and the Vatican Bank do not abide by God’s laws, then what can be expected from other, more secular institutions?
But at least I wanted to inform you about the alternative. Our media haven’t done it so far or I’ve overlooked it … it can be.
The link in the text doesn’t work.
Here is the link to silvio Gesell’s book
https://www.silvio-gesell.de/the-natural-economic-order.html
Thank you very much sir. you may like this:
“Where does it end?
With taxes, of course. The need for cash will be insatiable. And enduring. Some believe we’ve crossed the Rubicon, thanks to this virus. Now we all get a pony.
Well, this is a profound problem. These days four in ten households pay no net federal income tax, thanks to benefits like the cash-for-kids program. That leaves the other six to fund it all. But most of them (90%) earn less than $81,000. Hmm, so the top 10% of us – anybody earning $96,000 or more – currently bring in a little more than a third of all the income but already pay 54% of all the taxes.
Let me repeat. Ten per cent of Canadians pay 54% of the income tax. Of those, just a sliver are ‘rich’. The top 1% (earning $235,000 or more) number only 271,000. (Of those, 120,000 live in Ontario.)
This is why ‘taxing the rich’ won’t work. We don’t have enough to milk.”
https://www.greaterfool.ca/2020/06/02/the-inevitable-4/
Maybe Garth would like it if canadians were having even fewer children per family?
“With Taxes, of course…”
Take note: The opposite is currently happening.
In Germany, income tax (employer) in 2012 was 6.2% of total tax revenue.
The income tax (employee) was 24.8% of the total tax revenue.
Yes, yes the rich are really being ripped off excessively. When they keep the whole economy going. Think of something better as an argument.
Dr. Nafeez Ahmed rarely writes but when he does, it’s usually brilliant. He gets it and connects the dots by zooming out and taking a snap photo of converging problems. But then he usually ends things by thinking there is a way forward from this mess. Maybe there is maybe there isn’t. We really don’t know and won’t know because we won’t be around when or if the change does happen.
What we DO KNOW is that EVERYTHING we have built including our current population of roughly 7.8 billion humans and counting was made possible by fossil fuels. Without it, it’s like trying to thread a needle, it gets tight just to get it right.
It’s a long read but well worth it.
“White Supremacism and the Earth Systeme
The protests, the pandemic, and the planet: from systemic decline to civilizational renewal”
https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/white-supremacism-and-the-earth-system-fa14e0ea6147?source=collection_home—1——0———————–
I’ve read the first few paragraphs. And Dr. Ahmed has informed me that the US is a racist state with a racist police force and that we’ve just witnessed the racist murder of George Floyd.
Sorry, I can’t willingly take 27 minutes of this sort of brilliant analysis. Dr. Ahmed was brilliant two decades ago when he collated and analyzed what was going on before and after nine-11 in his two excellent books, The War on Truth and The War on Freedom.
Since then, his brilliance has failed to impress me. He got into promoting clim-mate alarmism, de-carbon-ization of the economy and trusting our collective future in renewables. Now he seems so be blaming white supremacism for our predicament.
Do we really need an article that takes 27 minutes for a college educated person to read in order to say that, or are there some important nuggets of wisdom and common sense buried it this article that will amaze and astound us with their brilliance if we persevere?
The ‘earth system’ is being destroyed by the global application of the civilizational model developed in Ancient Mesopotamia, not white supremacy.
Urban areas established by destroying local eco-systems; intense and excessive exploitation of resources through farming, fisheries and forestry; enhanced by international trade in commodities and warfare; resultant degradation and over-population, etc. We all know the drill. These people were in current parlance ‘BAME’.
Well, poor old Ahmed needs to get published,and no doubt looks for grants, so his ‘white supremacy’ spin on the issue is no surprise.
More White Supremacism? Again? Really? Whites are responsible for the chaos of Pakistan or Bangladesh? The tyranny of China? The tribalism of Africa? The narrowness of Islamic theocracy? Black family disintegration and criminality in the United States?
I was watching an old “Yes Minister” today. Minister Hacker’s daughter was going to stage a nude sit-in to save threatened badgers. This is of course embarrassing for Hacker. His private secretary Bernard asks “Can’t you reason with her?” and Hacker answers “Don’t talk nonsense, Bernard. She’s a sociology student!”
It seems that half the world today have the minds of sociology students: information poor or entirely misinformed, confused by poorly understood undergraduate concepts, pushed hither and thither by adolescent peer pressures and a slavery to current trends, personal insecurities and overwrought emotions.
A rational and informed or thoughtful person might as well try to discuss matters with Fido.
There is certainly very little sense around at the moment, and a great deal of embarrassing emoting.
As for trying to reason with anyone in such an irrational state, the Persian proverb applies:
‘A word to a fool is as good as silence’.
Thank you for that proverb, Xabier. It’s full of insight.
Persian proverbs, in fact most proverbs, are generally pregnant with hard-won experience.
Worth keeping in mind when you get exasperated with some nonsense someone is spouting.
Just keep silent and pass on, because you won’t change them.
One of the ironies of life is that it takes a smart person in the first place to seek and appreciate good advice…..
One comment I read, regarding covid-mask-obsessors (who seem to be highly-correlated with knee-takers), said ““Do not try to teach the Karens that the lockdown was a mistake. That is impossible. Instead, only try and realize the truth. — The truth is that the lockdown has turned fear into a virtue. Those that are afraid think they are better than those who aren’t, and will subconsciously look for ways to multiple that fear, because it’s their virtue.”
Like the local gallery owner who came up to us at the pop up food stall today, asking what we know about “testing” in the village next to us. I can now see that he expected us to be concerned and must be disappointed at our polite coolness. He was bewildred about where/how/when to get the results from his recent test, and I told him others had complained about getting the results as well. It was like he wasn’t REALLY accepting this disclosure. It wasn’t quite on program.
Thanks for the link Rod.
Cycles are the real tell in this story. Big dips in energy consumption result in larger violent fractures in society and little dips result is smaller, less violent fractures in society. The little dip in 2008 created the Occupy Wallstreet Movement in the US, the big dip during Covid lock down created the current events. I imagine it was rough living in Russia during its restructuring.
I wish more people could see and understand these cycles and I wish more people understood how important oil and gas are to our system. I never understood how ubiquitous oil and gas are in our society until I watched Michael Rupert’s “Collapse” interview. This is the real story.
Instead, what I’m hearing from very intelligent and educated people is: we have to vote for Biden – as if that’s gonna do anything!
Our only hope? Develop a personal Energy Descent Plan in line with the Transition Handbook.
As always, great article, and great comments.
I am afraid the current dip in energy consumption will be the “gift that keeps on giving.” It is giving the current violent protests. It will give us cuts of government employees next. Broken supply lines will cut back on the goods and service we can access. Things will tend to change for the worse.
I think the Saker’s got it! By george, he’s got it! He7s identified the real cause of what is taking place today is the systemic collapse of the US society.
On the other hand, what is the real cause of that systematic breakdown?
I have lived in the United States for a total of 24 years and I have witnessed many crises over this long period, but what is taking place today is truly unique and much more serious than any previous crisis I can recall. And to explain my point, I would like to begin by saying what I believe the riots we are seeing taking place in hundreds of US cities are not about. They are not about:
Racism or “White privilege”
Police violence
Social alienation and despair
Poverty
Trump
The liberals pouring fuel on social fires
The infighting of the US elites/deep state
They are not about any of these because they encompass all of these issues, and more.
It is important to always keep in mind the distinction between the concepts of “cause” and “pretext”. And while it is true that all the factors listed above are real (at least to some degree, and without looking at the distinction between cause and effect), none of them are the true cause of what we are witnessing. At most, the above are pretexts, triggers if you want, but the real cause of what is taking place today is the systemic collapse of the US society.
https://www.unz.com/tsaker/the-systemic-collapse-of-the-us-society-has-begun/
Miles Guo is saying that China has launched a 3F Plan against the US.
Foment weakness
Foment chaos
Foment destruction
First they release a virus, which led to lockdowns and economic ruin.
Secondly comes the protests, riots, burning and looting.
Thirdly comes the second wave of mass infections and a complete breakdown of the economy?
There are talks about a million protesters coming to DC this weekend. Someone described as a biological bomb against DC.
There is a fourth F, fentanyl, which China supplies.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/06/06/hayward-democrats-embrace-the-four-stages-of-ideological-subversion/
People have been warning of this for decades.
I don’t think that they realized quite how bad the problem could be, however.
I am afraid you are right.
The population of Washington DC is heavily black. It would seem to be more susceptible to COVID-19 than other places, because of the difficulty black people have with making enough Vitamin D, living in the United States.
Right! And Blacks are especially being marginalized by the systemic collapse that is taking place. They had had hopes that their status would gradually be rising, and recent changes make it look like their status is slipping away. This is especially disturbing. When there are too many people for resources, someone needs to be cut out. It is becoming clear that in the US, Blacks will be affected more than other races.
Don’t you wonder, Gail, if you aren’t sometimes trying to fit a square peg into a round hole by linking violence to resource shortages?
Of course we can see the linkage at some demographic scales, especially about the level of tribe or nation, but isn’t that tperhaps the limit of its explanatory power?
Is there any place in your theories for the notion that some people are just evil, that they are greedy and selfish and willing to be violent to get what they want?
Surely such people are all around us, like the man who has a good job but also robs banks.
Plenty of people can have what they need by working but prefer the easy and psychologically self-aggrandizing life of violent crime. Some people will beat up the spouse even though on a salary of ten thousand a week. Doesn’t simple psychology or personality explain most or even almost all (at least interpersonal) violence?
Yes, a few of us are monsters
but by and large we fit the entry for Earth in the Hitch hikers guide to the galaxy:
Mostly Harmless
The USA has 2.5 million people in prison. They have all committed felonies, which are very serious crimes like assault, DUI, robbery, rape, drug dealing, and so on.
On top of that, there are millions more ex-prisoner felons walking the streets.
In a sea of 330 million, it is true that by far most are harmless. But noone with any sense swims where the sign says “No swimming, crocodiles.” Although the occasional tourist does ignore these signs in Australia. They end up in the newspapers.
It seems to me that one of the great failings of modern society is that people have been persuaded that there is no such thing as evil. That is like persuading sheep that there is no such thing as a wolf.
46% of inmates in USA are in prison for crimes related to drug trafficking or consumption. Seen from Europe, the penal and prison system in the USA is a greedy insanity, it is a way to turn poor into prisoners and a BIG business opportunity for contractors.
Besides in USA a black person is more likely to be charged and convicted of a drug-related crime than a white one.
Have you take these facts into account in your conclusions?
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5614457/
https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_offenses.jsp
“46% of inmates in USA are in prison for crimes related to drug trafficking or consumption.”
So what? What is the point of this comment? Take them away and ou will still have 1.3 million in prison for an astonishing array of the most vile violent crimes. And the dispropostionate and vast majority of those felons will still be black! So, so what? What’s your point?
But we should also note:
1. First, very few-to-nobody is in prison in the United States for drug *consumption*. That is a furphy. Rather, many people are in prison for drug dealing *and related crimes*, as they should be, and in those cases, they are in prison for those drug crimes because they are the easiest to prosecute and the felon has been pled down. Nobody is in prison for just being a small time drug dealer. They are almost always also housebreakers and armed robbers, pimps and drunk drivers as well. Aside from being clearly against the law of the land – so one shouldn’t be selling drugs or shold accept the consequences – the drug business is the most degrading and socially destructive activity in the nation. Drug dealers are not innocents. They are consciously destroying people, families and communities. We should just let it all just run until it destroys us?
2. Is it your idea that it should be “decriminalized”? How would that work? Could I still buy meth from people manufacturing it in their garages? Could I still use meth, cocaine, PCP, ecstacy and fentanyl to enslave and control my street prostitutes? Would China then cease importing fentanyl into the United States as part of her plan to destroy the United States? Who would be permitted to produce and sell these drugs? If I ignored any such strictures would I still be doing something illegal? Marijuana is legal now in some states. Guess what? There is still illegal production and distribution.
Fentanyl, cocaine, heroin, and meth are a deadly business backed by murder and funding a raft of other brutal industries. Along with pills like oxycontin, sold through pill mills, these drugs kill at least 50,000 people a year in the United States. The people who sell these drugs are responsible for those deaths. Is that okay?
“Seen from Europe, the penal and prison system in the USA is a greedy insanity,…”
As Europe has continued it’s immigration policies of recent decades what have we found? Well, amazingly, they show a pattern that is very similar to or even more extreme than what we see in the United States, in particular, a massive “over-representation” of brown and black people in crime and incarceration:
“A Brookings Institution report says that “Muslims are greatly overrepresented in prisons and within the eighteen- to twenty-four–year-old age group in particular: they make up only 8.5 percent of that age cohort in France, yet 39.9 percent of all prisoners in the cohort.” \
https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/are-70-of-frances-prison-inmates-muslims
So apparently it isn’t just nasty old white America that has this problem.
Maybe somebody ought to tell the criminals to stop commiting rapes, murders, assaults, burglaries, and to stop selling drugs to make their livings and thereby destroying people, families and communities.
,
“Besides in USA a black person is more likely to be charged and convicted of a drug-related crime than a white one.”
Indeed, blacks are proportionally over-represented in prison for every category of crime, including white collar crime. Guess why. Because they commit far, far, far, far more such felonies than any other section of American society. They are in prison because they commit crimes. It is as simple as that.
Nothing to do with “white privilege”.
Have you take these facts into account in your conclusions?
Of course, drug use should be decriminalized. This was done in Portugal in 2001, considering that heroin addicts should be seen as sick and not as criminals, with the state now supplying them with a heroin substitute, just as it supplies insulin to diabetics. The result was far less petty theft, far less overdose deaths, far more street safety. In Portugal the judicial system works poorly, but at least it is not yet a machine to turn poor people into prisoners to give money to corporations. Did you get it at last?
Second point. Prisons are mostly made for poor people., in USA as in Portugal and everywhere. If there’s if the percentage of poverty among blacks is higher than among whites, it is natural that blacks are overrepresented in prisons, right? I’m even ready to admit that blacks are generally more prone to violent crimes than whites, but I think your perspective is completely exagerated and quite antiblack skewed. Lifeis not a a good versus baddie movie. In harsh circunstances we are all potential monsters.
End of conversation with you about this matter (fortunately in relation to other subjects you seem much more lucid and balanced)
I am afraid I don’t see some people as, “Just evil.” Some people have grown up in broken homes, amid violence. Their backgrounds make life difficult for them. Some people seem to have chemical imbalances in their brains, making them prone to mania/depression at intervals. Some people have different abilities than are demanded in today’s economy, making fitting in more difficult. Some people have grown up in cultures in which men are almost expected to mistreat their wives, if they do not do precisely what they want.
I see a lot of alcoholism and drug taking as “self-medicating.” People feel depressed or inferior. They need to try to fix the situation any way that they can.
Syria turned into a failed state due to oil depletion…poverty…mass protests…government crackdown…armed rebellion…war.
Only a fraction of the population joined first the FSA and then Al Qaeda and ISIS.
Most of the population remained civilians.
Not everyone has to resort to violence for a war to break out.
Just so. I find it out that people who usually subscribe to a very evolutionary-ecological way of thinking – e.g., certain animals have evolved to take advantage of ecological niches, some animals are more predatory than others, and so on – are not entirely consistent in applying it to the human animal.
Of course, people today do not widely favor the idea that people might be – for the most part – born as they are – although on the psychologcal side it seems to be acknowldeged that people and in fact even entire groups are born with tendencies to sociopathy and psychopathy. But mostly, when it comes to human behavior, Lysenkoism is the dominant mode of thinking for teh man in the street. People can be anything, apparently. We just have to apply sufficent Soviet grit.
This is where the title comes from for that movie “The Shape of Water” – it is Marxist idea, that humans, like water, merely take the shape of the container that holds them. A really monstrous idea in its implications.
While acknowledging that people are influenced by circumstances (just as, analogously, there is epigenetics as well as genetics) from what I have seen in my own life, the basic structure of a human personality is born along with the person.
Everyone has his own experience, but lots of readers here have children. My experience with my own children is that they were all their little selves from Day One and they never changed very much, except perhaps in amplification. The most outgoing and social of my children as a rugrat and toddler has stayed that way her whole life. The quieter and more thoughful ones stayed quieter and more thoughful. And that has been the same in my own life. I have a very vivid memory of myself at around teh age of four having exactly the same kinds of moods and feelings and thoughts that I have today, decades later. And I know very many children today and watch them grow. The bold little boy as a toddler grows into the bold young man.
I knew a lesbian couple once who wanted a child (early 1980s). One of them enlisted the help of a friend, the deed was done, and a little girl resulted. Now, this couple was very politically aware and were sure that they were going to turn out a very politically aware and modern woman. Instead what they got was a little girl who loved tutus, dress-ups and makeup and with the most feminine of natures. A very beautiful little girl, she grew up to become a successful fashion model.
The most ironic part of all this is in the issue of who was to educate whom, because over the years as they raised the little girl, the couple, originally so politically charged and sure on issues of feminism. sex roles and so on, ultimately abandoned – at the very least – all of the associated jargon and talking points and were very proud of their hyper-female young daughter.
That is an interesting story about the girl and her parents. Raising children taught me at least as much about human nature as all of my reading the scientific literature.
Teachers and educational experts just love the doctrine that they -and they alone, not families – can and should shape children according to some ideal pattern, the blank-slate worked upon by their expertise, to produce the perfect citizen – according to their ideology.
Flattering to them, but nonsense.
Both Nazism (with the addition of absurd theories of blood and race) and the Soviet system were based on this premise; Mussolini tried it in Italy but gave up claiming Italians were too corrupted by ‘impure blood’ after centuries of invasions!
Oh for sure there’s plenty of evil people in this world, but if you want to find them, your are looking in the wrong direction. You must aim much higher than the black petty thiefs and burglers. Take instead a look at Wall street and thereabout..
|”but if you want to find them, your are looking in the wrong direction. You must aim much higher than the black petty thiefs and burglers.”
No one says Wall Street and the banks aren’t snakes. That is the topic 364 days a year. But can’t we look at all of the criminals? Isn’t the topic here physical violence?
And why the attempt to diminish the reality of black crime with “petty thiefs and buglars”?
You know, it is not petty if it is *your* car that has its windows smashed in a “petty” theft and your wallet stolen, putting you on a decade-long identity theft roundabout. And it is very common for burglars to graduate to murder. And you know that Chicago has 500 murders a year. mostly by black gangs. There are lots of other US cities just as bad.
To tell the truth, this entire converstaion we are having here just boggles me.
Please explain something: why does everyone insist on wriggling around this way, always refusing to acknowledge basic facts?
Why does everyone seem to think that crime is okay?
“”Why does everyone seem to think that crime is okay?”
You like to use a lot of hyperbolic generalisations, Kim, for someone who claims adherence to facts.
Again we come back to the fundamental doctrine of the Left, based on Trotsky’s definition of Revolutionary Violence: if a group is ‘oppressed’, it’s crimes are either to be justified -‘revolutionary’ in intention – or minimised as unfortunate consequences of their suffering in a corrupt system.
The Left looks kindly on all crime by those who come from masses for this reason, but above all youth crime, riots and arson (‘rising against the System!’) and crime by favoured and ‘oppressed’ ethnic groups.
Among the Left these days, black criminals are considered almost beyond reproach for this reason.
The Guardian tried very hard to define the 2011 London Riots as a political uprising by marginalized youth, when it was all smash and grab, with some arson thrown in for fun.
We an expect that they will excuse the violence at the protests in London as either caused in some way by the police, or as a legitimate strike against the System.
We live in a profoundly violent world. The greatest (physical) violence is committed by gentlemen who have never taken up a weapon, but who are capable of reducing thousands of people to extreme poverty with a simple signature in a document. In view of this, my ability to be indignant at the brutality of criminal gangs is somewhat limited.
I understand your indignation and your point of view about black crime, but it seems superficial and a little tedious to me.
On the other hand, if we look at it all as just a remorseless thermodynamic process in which humans are simply part of the universe process of energy release, part of a process in which they have no agency, then that is something else, a different kind of theory.
But we would still have to posit theories for why different agency-less humans act differently under what they each perceive as “resource constraints”.
Maybe the answer is nobody acts differently. The circumstances in which you find yourself and your personal pluckiness is what determines your probability to break the law. And I suppose the average young black American has a lot more pluck than his white counterpart.
“And I suppose the average young black American has a lot more pluck than his white counterpart.”
“Pluck”? Maybe so. But how would we define it or recognize it when we see it? We can’t mean “bravery” because usually criminals or all kinds look for the weakest and most defenseless victims they can find. They have numbers, weapons, size, and attack suddenly and without warning. Is that “pluck”?
Remember the video of that young man beating the old man in the hospital bed? Is that what we should call “plucky”?
No, usually criminals are cowardly. Cowardly and vile and often very stup1d too. Although what they do can appear to be brave, what we are in fact seeing is their fecklessness, their uncontrolled impulsiveness, their inability to predict consequences and balance risk and reward, and their lack of empathy….they are never held back in the least by the idea that they might hurt their victims.
So I am pretty sure that “pluck” is not the word we are looking for.
I agree totally, Kim.
We’d have to praise the ‘bravery’ of Gypsy criminals too: somehow, threatening peaceful people with arson, shotguns and crowbars as happened here a few years ago doesn’t seem very bold to me, just thuggish and cowardly.
Actually, they were faced down by a neighbour who had lots (no exaggeration) of illegal weapons and made it clear he was mad enough to use them – now, he was brave, facing a whole travelling gang on his own.
And mugging frail old ladies as has become quite common in Spain recently? Does that require courage?
Yours is a valid way of looking at the phenomenon of crime, but there are others. I always thought that choosing a life of crime, risking arrest, requires some courage. The courage is not in stealing an old woman, of course, but in the risk of being caught by the police and get a sentence of years in prison. Frankly, I see more cowardice in spending a whole life in a slave job, earning 600 euros month and enduring all the humiliations that a boss decid to inflict on you. I have no particular sympathy for small criminals, but seeing them only as lazy people who don’t like to work and have chosen the “easier” path is a very reductive way of looking at things. In a way, stealing is hard work, work without benefits, and with many associated risks (starting with social disapproval). If it were such an easy life, there would not be so many people choosing a life of poor but honest work.
maybe non-theft is something ingrained with us throughout our evolutionary time
yes there are habitual thieves, and they get punished, but if everyone stole everything that wasn’t nailed down, then the result would be societal chaos–unless of course the concept of property didnt exist at all
I understand predator animals generally cull the weakest (oldest, most lame) members of a herd. Perhaps criminals are doing the same thing. We don’t call lions cowardly and vile.
Self-domestication.
Europeans expressed surplus energy throughput in part by building cathedrals and writing music for symphonies (for example), because that was the best they could do (they also did a lot of warring and pillaging as well). Elon Musk ineptly makes cars and rockets that explode, because that’s the best he can do. Looters, rapists, and arsonists steal, rape, and burn because with low IQs that’s the best they can do in contributing to the Energy-Throughput-Fest. Earthly impact-per-individual may very well be greater in summation, according to intelligence and degree of “civility.”
We already see Garrett having come up with the CO2/GDP constant. GDP is not just a measure of good things that raise our quality of life, but also of bad “broken-windows” expenditures.
That is an interesting way of putting it:
“Looters, rapists, and arsonists steal, rape, and burn because with low IQs that’s the best they can do in contributing to the Energy-Throughput-Fest.”
I was juror on a trial quite a few years ago. I remember hearing one of the police testify that in the fall, some people would commit some minor crime, so that they could have a nice warm room in the jail to live in, for a few months, until warmer weather came around. People aren’t necessarily stupid.
Also, you are right that any kind of broken-windows expenditure adds to GDP. You reference to Garrett is Dr. Tim Garrett at the University of Utah.
Not so sure about the poverty part….if people were truly rich and not suffering the effects of inflation and deflation at the same time I think things would be different. The frogs don’t know that they are being boiled in the pot yet.
I tried to share this link out via Facebook Messenger to my friends. It was blocked. FB states that this is not a good link to share and denies the share.
Talk about personal censorship
I have been a little cautious about how I title my articles and how strong the statement I make are. People (and censors) get upset when the story is too “strong.”
Wow – Brexit uncertainty is the gift that keeps on giving:
“Failure to reach a Brexit deal with Europe will lead to much worse food shortages than the coronavirus panic buying crisis: this was the stark warning made to MPs today by Andrew Opie, director of food at the British Retail Consortium…
“He said the UK would face a severe threat of shortages of fresh products. With 90% of lettuce, 80% of tomatoes and 70% of soft fruit shipped from Europe, Opie said these would be among the products hit.
“Asked what the biggest message from the experience of the coronavirus outbreak was, Opie told the inquiry: “I think mine would be a warning that if we thought this was a problem, I think we should look forward to a disorderly Brexit in January.”
https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/brexit/no-deal-brexit-will-cause-food-shortages-worse-than-coronavirus-panic-buying/645117.article
““I don’t think we can go on like this forever,” said Michel Barnier, in some room or other in Brussels, as the latest round of Brexit talks proved as pointless as the last.
“He then listed all the areas in which no progress has been made.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-negotiations-boris-johnson-coronavirus-lockdown-a9551611.html
EU trade does not matter. If BAU is ending we need to do things ourselves without the EU. Best get on with it.
https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51MvMB7vlOL._SX324_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg
Absolutely! I would give up lettuce and tomato for the rest of my life if it meant my country could be free again.
“Britain is a world by itself, and we will nothing pay for wearing our own noses” William Shakespeare, Cymbeline, Act III scene 1.
Said the bard in a time UK’s population would be ~5 M people.
UK is now, as most of world countries, way overpopulated. Most countries couldn’t be self-sufficient even if they tried it as hard as never, at least without a big cull.
I would be very unhappy if I lived in Britain. A shortage of fresh produce would be a big problem.
I would expect that there would also be a problem for producers. With fewer buyers of their output, they would find it harder and harder to make a profit. Some would go out of business, adding to unemployment in places like Spain that supply fresh produce.
“I would be very unhappy if I lived in Britain. A shortage of fresh produce would be a big problem”.
Not as big a problem as living in Spain without fresh water.
Just get frozen fruit and veg instead.
(jangles jester’s bells)
Buy yourself a 3D printer. It’ll give you whatever food you want, just program it in. I printed off an elephant tikka masala last week. It was gorgeous! Roll on the singularity.
Italia too i think. Marocco. And poor countrys
Harry, we could do an awful lot better than we do in making our food supply more resilient. Importing out of season food from the EU leads to starvation eventually.
– There is lovely tree in next door’s garden that is currently ripe full of cherries. Nobody is interested apart from the squirrels. People would rather buy imported ones from Sainsburys, crazy.
– The local Isle of Wight greenhouses produce tomatoes for 11 months of the year, so why do we need to import 80% of our tomatoes from the EU; most of which come from the Netherlands with a similar climate, crazy.
I’m sorry to say but Britain seems particularly vulnerable. Low natural resources and too many people on that Island is going to be a tough roe to hoe going forward. What does Great Britain export? Love the Brits and feel sorry for them and Italy and Spain and Greece too!
“Dust is gathering on our suitcases, and our overnight bags haven’t seen daylight in months. Unsurprisingly, the coronavirus crisis and the total collapse of international travel have consumed yet another victim – this time luggage brand Antler, which went into administration in May.
“But as borders remain closed and quarantine measures are in place around the world, even rock-solid brands like Samsonite and Rimowa are in crisis.”
https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/fashion-beauty/article/3087522/luggage-makers-travel-slump-creates-worst-case-scenario
“COVID-19 has taken a metaphorical sledgehammer to global tourism, although European nations are trying to revive the industry. Not so in Ireland or the UK, where stringent quarantine rules further threaten the sector.”
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-quarantine-plans-raise-serious-questions-for-tourism-in-ireland-and-britain/a-53690865
“Hoping to salvage what’s left of a summer season to boost an economy brought down by the COVID-19 Coronavirus and a long lockdown of businesses, Greece’s scheme to lure visitors is being called Restart Tourism.
“Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, at the unveiling of the campaign, said that, “We hope to be able to welcome visitors safely, first and foremost, and that this, the summer of 2020, will be a memorable one.”
““Greece is more than just sea and sun,” said Mitsotakis. “What we want to communicate is that Greek summer…is a state of mind,” although the prospects are uncertain after 12 passengers arriving on a Qatar Airways flight were put into quarantine after testing positive for the virus.”
https://www.thenationalherald.com/greece_economy/arthro/greece_restarting_tourism_with_slogan_restart_tourism-397461/#gsc.tab=0
“Thailand’s capital Bangkok was named the world’s most visited city in 2019. With 40 million visitors – tourism is referred to as the engine driving the kingdom’s economy.
“But with global travel halted during the pandemic, that engine is running on empty.”
Video:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/06/thailand-aims-revive-tourism-pandemic-200605094734675.html
40 million visitors! I wouldn’t have dreamt that Bangkok would rate that high, but it is close to Asian countries with tourism.
It is amazing how many things are interconnected. People buy suitcases when they are traveling.
“Airports have gone from cash generators to drains as flights are grounded, shops are shuttered and passenger numbers fall to a trickle…
““Infrastructure was viewed as a long-term, stable asset class to provide inflation-linked cashflows,” said the boss of a pension funds giant. “Not many would have factored in a Covid situation.”
“Crashing valuations are the latest blow for the insurance and pension fund giants that prized infrastructure assets. They have also been hit by the bonfire of stock market dividends and collapsing share prices, investments such as offices plummeting in value and contributions from members drying up.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-crash-landing-for-airport-takeovers-v3ffdlhtw
“The coronavirus pandemic has hit both formal and informal jobs in Mexico, according to data published Monday by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography.
“At least 12 million people left the workforce in April: all of them stopped receiving income and are still uncertain as to whether their occupation will be available with the opening of the economy.”
https://theunionjournal.com/about-12-million-people-stopped-working-in-mexico-during-april-economy/
“Three police officers have been arrested in the Mexican state of Jalisco over the death of a man taken into custody for allegedly breaking coronavirus restrictions, authorities said Friday…
“The arrests follow riots in the state capital Guadalajara after protesters had gathered to demand justice over Lopez’s death.”
https://news.yahoo.com/police-arrested-mexico-riots-over-mans-death-195753191.html
“Mexico is not in a position to make additional oil output cuts beyond those agreed at the April meeting of the OPEC+ group of oil-producing countries, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said on Friday…
““We couldn’t do any more, we’ve done our part and you can check that we’re not extracting more oil, that there was a reduction of 100,000 barrels as we offered,” the president said.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/mexico-oil/update-3-mexico-cannot-make-additional-oil-output-cuts-president-idUKL1N2DI0WK
[Worth remembering that Mexico was already in recession in the second half of 2019.]
Mexico has been past peak oil for a long time. That is a big part of its problem.
Mexico is another country that cannot handle people leaving the workforce. Many of them are very poor to begin with.
“Angola has cut the number of oil cargoes that it will ship to Chinese state firms to pay down debt to Beijing as it seeks to renegotiate repayment terms to deal with the crippling impact of the coronavirus, three sources familiar with the matter said.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-angola-china-debt-oil-exclusive/exclusive-angola-cuts-oil-shipments-to-china-as-it-seeks-debt-relief-idUKKBN23C1M0
I don’t have a related story, so here is Angolan singer, Artur Nunes.
[Born in 1950 in Barrio Cuba, Sambizanga, Angola. A legend in his time, Artur Nunes was the voice and one of the most influential composers in the pre-independence days of revolutionary Angola. His songs drew inspiration from kombas, the funeral rites where women sang laments.]
YouTube not liking that. This may work:
I didn’t know this singer (and I should). Thanks!
Angola really needs current payment for this oil. Putting toward debt repayment doesn’t really work.
“In the past two months, [US] states and cities have cut more jobs than they did after the last recession.
“Even as businesses hired employees back as much of the nation started reopening, the number of workers on state and local government payrolls fell by 571,000 to 18.3 million in May, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday.
“That pushed the number of job cuts to about 1.5 million over the past two months, roughly twice as many as were ushered in after the last economic contraction over a decade ago…
“…the steep cuts underscore the deep financial strain on usually slow-to-act states and cities, which are facing massive budget deficits after surging unemployment and business closures decimated their tax collections.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-05/more-state-city-jobs-lost-in-two-months-than-during-recession
“The US economy added around 2.5 million jobs in May, defying expectations. The rise coincides with states lifting lockdown measures. Still, the unprecedented economic collapse has seen millions turn to food banks.”
Video:
https://www.dw.com/en/long-lines-at-us-food-banks/av-53698347
“Over the past two months, thousands of small businesses in Lower Manhattan have closed, thrusting an untold number of people into economic precarity and food insecurity.
“With no income, and mounting bills including rent, utilities, and health care, families are facing the prospect of bankruptcy, homelessness, hunger, or worse.”
https://www.thenation.com/article/society/new-york-food-insecurity/
Mis has a different view of this: The BIS Admits Another Phony Job Report.
He believes that U6 is a better estimate of unemployment. This says unemployment drooped from 22.8% to 21.1%.
https://imageproxy.themaven.net/https%3A%2F%2Fimages.saymedia-content.com%2F.image%2FMTczMDU2NDc2NzcwNzM5NzQ0%2Fnonfarm-2020-06a.png
State and cities are both collecting far less revenue than in the past. They use this revenue for programs such as schools, police, parks and road repair. They are facing cutbacks.
“Pakistan’s economy was in tatters even before the emergence of coronavirus, but the pandemic has added to the South Asian country’s economic woes…
“…in order to revive the economy, Khan’s government is shifting the onus to the private sector, which experts say could result in thousands of public job cuts… Amid the coronavirus crisis, the government is planning to shed a number of state-run enterprises…
“About 9,000 employees of Pakistan Steel Mills will be sacked in two phases after payment of their dues and one-month salary.”
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-pakistani-government-lays-off-thousands-of-workers-to-revive-economy/a-53699236
“[India’s] migrant workers have had enough… hundreds of protests that have erupted across India.”
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/dyzpxy/indians-are-protesting-the-hunger-crisis-and-migrant-deaths-triggered-by-the-coronavirus-lockdown
If China’s migrant workers had the freedom, they would likely be protesting as well, I expect.
“Guterres said Yemen is “hanging by a thread” with its institutions “facing near collapse” and its economy “in tatters.”
“…the Palestinian economy is headed for an alarming downturn in an already dire situation because of COVID-19…
“Although Jordan appears to have so far managed the COVID-19 crisis with only 765 reported cases (in a population of over 10 million) and just nine deaths (a 1% fatality rate), the economic costs may be catastrophic.”
https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/06/covid19-economic-crisis-yemen-jordan-palestine-guterres.html
“Strict public health measures, coming on top of a severe economic downturn since the fall, have left many Lebanese families without income. More than a dozen jewelers across Beirut said their gold purchases had spiked after Lebanon imposed its lockdown in March, forcing businesses to shutter their doors and lay off their employees.
“Women… unearthed their delicate gold chains and intricate bracelets — some even took off their wedding bands — and solemnly made their way to jewelers…
“When a married woman sells her gold, it is often done with a sense of shame. It means that all other options have been exhausted – and is interpreted as the husband having failed his family… ”
https://www.expressnews.com/news/article/Desperate-Middle-Eastern-women-resort-to-selling-15320155.php
This kind of activity hurts the price of gold.
A find. It fits.
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20200603-divorces-rise-by-30-per-cent-in-saudi-arabia-after-quarantine-uncovers-polygamous-husbands/
did not go well
https://www.breitbart.com/social-justice/2020/06/05/black-conservatives-reject-medias-racism-victimhood-narratives-condemn-blacklivesmatter/
“Prominent black conservatives are seeing how the mainstream media are using the death of George Floyd — to portray America as racist, to vilify all police officers, to force the mantle of victimhood onto black Americans — and they are calling foul.”
black voices matter…
A superb performance of a Domenico Scarlatti sonata by a talented lady. Scarlatti was truly ahead of his time. I encountered his music via Wendy Carlos (or Walter Carlos, as she then was). I’d seen the film ‘A Clockwork Orange’ in 1971 and admired her synthesiser music. Through that I explored her electronic renditions of Bach on her ‘Switched on Bach’ album and Scarlatti et al on ‘The Well Tempered Synthesizer’ album. Back then you couldn’t play chords on the machine – they had to be laboriously created in the recording studio.
“Back then you couldn’t play chords on the machine – they had to be laboriously created in the recording studio.”
yes, but then polyphonic synths came out and the sounds were amazing… then digital keyboards arrived in the late 1970s and the sounds became much more sanitized as it seemed that so many recording artists preferred the digital imitations (or limitations) of orchestral instruments…
measured by prog rock, the 1970s were the peak years of IC…
not W Carlos, but a joyous version:
Concerning poverty and criminality, studies on their correlation have been conducted in Sweden.
“Unsurprisingly, when Sariaslan and his team looked at childhood family income and serious adolescent mischief alone, they found that those children from the lowest income quintile had significantly higher “hazard rates” of being convicted for violent criminality and substance abuse versus those in the highest income quintile.
But when Sariaslan and his team factored in the behavior of cousins and siblings into those hazard rates to try and account for unknowns like genetic differences and household culture — “unobserved familial risk factors” — the strong correlation between low socioeconomic status and crime and drug abuse essentially vanished. ”
From :
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2014/08/31/Questioning-Connection-Between-Poverty-and-Crime
Similar results have also been produced in the UK. The necessary personality traits to become a criminal are to quite a fair extent genetic. Though also culture matters. I think that the “slum doctor” (white slum) Theodor Dalrymple got it right when he claims that the progressive changes of society since the 1960ies had a devastating impact on primarily the underclass. The elite and middle class may find the destruction of old norms and ideals liberating, but the lower classes are to a much higher degree left to nihilism without the stabilizing affect of the old virtues, norms and ideals. Read Dalrymples “Life at the Bottom: The Worldview That Makes the Underclass”, really interesting book.
This makes a great deal of sense, the virtue signaling by the pampered class could be seen as a form of atonement for destroying the basic values that allowed those less fortunate to make a life. The life style of the rich and famous does not have a great deal to recommend it, mostly valueless, The cover of People shows those of great privilege making a mess out of their lives and still photographing well.
Dennis L.
The good music makes us forget about the tough reality for a while. Here is the Slovak genius, a singer without any formal education in singing, who came to the recording studio and recorded songs immediately, without the need to repeat.
Karol Duchon – a heavy alcoholic who died at the age of 35.
https://lyrics.sunamo.cz/artist/karol-duchon
https://youtu.be/8b6aQEyole4
Karol Duchoň would be 70 this year. It was that fantastic era of the music of the 70s and the 80s:
https://youtu.be/qc5oxgQMSiA
The portuguese equivalent would be the eccentric António Variações, a rara avis who provoked sensation and scorn in his meteoric career of 3 years, before dying of AIDS in 1984. He’s a legend in Portugal.
nothing really matters:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMMEviSTc9U
nothing really matters… BUT me…
The Republicans, the protests and the President – BBC News
George Floyd: attacks on reporters at protests – BBC News
I made a note under Gail regarding the money spent to maintain a workforce. A team is very difficult to assemble, getting two teams to collaborate and work for a common goal is even more difficult. Supposedly a certain European country in the 1940’s has sufficient uranium in total to sustain fission, but two different teams hoarded theirs and both failed, sometimes failure has a desirable outcome.
When we come out of this we will need groups of people who can function together, easier said than done. We will also need intact nations, while some seem to see collapse as a great adventure it has a strong possibility to be not nearly as much fun as anticipated. Those who are thinking they will be king of the hill might want to read early soviet history, the “inventors” all died, one as far away as Mexico City, Papa Joe came along.
So we spend some paper money, try and keep things going and hopefully make it to the other side. You need teams, John, easier to take what you have than start anew.
Dennis L.
Dennis, when that nuclear programme was handed over to the Reichsforschungsrat in 1942, the work was divided among no fewer than nine institutes, all doing what research institutes usually do with government money: spend it on their own agendas. Nothing useful came of it. Perhaps the least unsuccessful part of the whole effort was the heavy water facility built in Vernork in occupied Norway. Norwegian resistance fighters, aided by allied bombing raids, disposed of it in 1943, but it did work.
The way the system seems to work now is government funding is given for projects deemed “worthwhile.” Promotions within universities are given for research deemed “worthwhile.” Politicians come up with a huge number of goals deemed worthwhile: renewable energy, energy efficiency, racial equality, sustainability, . . .
The projects are broken down into small enough pieces that no one suspects that the goals are really not attainable in the form they are laid out. The part of the economy aimed at profits of businesses (including the profits of farmers) moves in one direction. The part of the economy driven by government sponsored theories of the day moves in a different direction.
Actually, we cannot get to a sustainable solution, though either the business driven approach or the wishful thinking of politicians and educators because resources per capita are too low.
Nothing is for nothing part 1
The world is upside down. Not only since the Corona crisis. Enormous efforts are required every day to maintain this condition.
Those who practice yoga and practice standing upside down, in yoga the exercise is called Shirshasana, know what I mean. The smallest gust of wind, the slightest carelessness, Kawumm … – landed rudely on the yoga mat.
But practice makes perfect. The Kawumm …, in the figurative sense of the crash, occurs less and less. You have learned to keep your attention.
But not even a master of yoga would come up with the idea of keeping this state endless. The exercise actually only serves to change the perspective. Serves as a training of the mind.
But afterwards it is always necessary to return; that is: to get up again.
But our world is always upside down. The condition is chronic. Even more, standing upside down is now considered a natural state.
But since he is not, there are a lot of people who feel it. They feel increasingly uncomfortable, feel overwhelmed, insecure people look for the mistake in themselves. Some despair so much that they brutally elude standing upside down.
But anyone who manages to stand on their own two feet will shortly thereafter feel excluded. Is no longer understood. Is an outsider.
The majority, however, tries to come to an arrangement. Believe the elites, the politicians, the economists, leading media representatives and the company bosses who assure that the situation is completely normal.
And even the critical voices (yes, there are), who feel the fallacy, deal endlessly with the statements of the elites.
Hi! Don’t switch off now. Hold on.
Now it’s about getting everything back on its feet. With the help of the Bible.
The Bible?
Yes, hard to believe.
It goes back in time. Quite far. Roughly three thousand years. To the old testament. To the book Genesis. To Abraham and Melchizedek to Genesis chapter 14, verse 18-20.
https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=genesis+14&version=CSB
It follows that Melchesedik is the high priest of God. Abraham, as a blessed one, is a believer in God. And as such, he hands Melchizedek the tithe of the loot.
If you want to know where the spoils of war came from, just read the verses in front of it.
Genesis Chap. 14, verses 18-20 is, to my knowledge, the first mention of tithe in the Bible.
Since there is no previous text, it can be assumed that tithing was handed down orally before the Bible. And thus must be accepted as the first obligation of a believer in God towards God.
Except for the commandment in Genesis chapter 8, verse 4, “However, living flesh, still connected to its blood, you should not eat.” A commandment that I think is related to the tithing.
There is also further evidence of voluntary tithing, which affects Jacob. Mentioned in Genesis chapter 28, verses 20-22.
I now come from the first obligation of a believer in God to put this obligation in writing, and thus to the law.
As the law, tithe is first mentioned in Leviticus, chapter 27, verses 32-34, in the third book of Moses.
The most interesting thing about this text is the precise definition of the procedure for the survey. Since it is mentioned that animals are not allowed to be exchanged, there were probably people who circumvented the law and wanted to circumvent it even before it was written down.
Even more interesting is the mention that a twenty percent surcharge was due when paying with money.
So those who paid with money had to give up twelve percent a year.
The tithe collectors were the temple servants, the Levites, who in turn received ten percent of the tithe for their work and again had to give ten percent of this tithe to the priesthood (Aaron and Aaron’s descendants).
The question that now arises: what actually happened to all the remaining eighty-eight to ninety percent of the cattle that were brought in, all the fruit and vegetables, all the money?
The answer to that is really startling. There was a festival at the tithing site. A huge festival where everyone was allowed to eat it all. Always with the proviso of thanking God for his benevolence.
Benevolence? That is the question now. What should tithing be if people got a good portion of it back, according to God’s will? Why this strange construct?
Perhaps this thought will help.
The priesthood, as well as the Levites, were in the former God state (I am the Lord your God), the elite of the state and could therefore decide on the direction in which the community should steer.
So the Levites and priests were at the same time something like the central banker and government in one.
In any case, if you follow his mention in the Bible, the tithe shows a logical development. And is always the focal point of the action. It is not for nothing that the prophets repeatedly urge them to keep God’s laws. Which suggests that tithing, as God wished, usually did not work. Which was probably also due to the kings that God had appointed at the people’s request (they wanted a king, like all the peoples around them).
OK, you can have it, God said, but be aware that the tithe is no longer due to me, but to the king.
So once again the question at the end of the first part of the post “Nothing is for nothing”: why did God so urgently and so emphatically demand tithing?
Christ…
No ideas…?
OK. Then continue with part 2.
Nothing is for nothing – part 2
Actually, the answer to the question asked: why is tithing? Easy to answer. But believe me, the answer is difficult to get into your head.
We are all shaped by what surrounds us, what we have been taught and what we have our own experiences with. And none of us can say that he has no experience in dealing with money.
Money moves us. Don’t leave us alone.
Johann Wolfgang von Goethe writes in Faust: Everything is pressing for gold, everything depends on gold. Oh poor!
The whole Faust of Goethe is permeated by the money topic. In the second part also of the impending state bankruptcy. And of course caught by the moral struggle of men between Mephisto and God.
We all know the fight. One way or another.
Many of the problems that mankind currently has could be solved with a completely different kind of money. And as God promises in the Bible texts, we would then have him on our side. With rich harvests and peace in the country. And with justice between people.
That’s why I’m a fan of God, even more a supporter of God.
One does not have to be a believer for the following solution. Reason is enough.
It was in 1994 when I noticed a book in a three-hour nightly broadcast on public radio, the author (Peter Kafka) of which brought up thoughts that really upset me at the time.
I then started reading. Thought. Read more. And at some point I knew that’s it.
Another book, written by Margrit Kennedy, was published in Germany in 1995 and, in my opinion, is the best work I know as an introduction.
And for most readers here, not to be scoffed at, it also appeared in English.
Attention: 58 pages
https://www.kennedy-bibliothek.info/cx-content/
findable:
https://www.kennedy-bibliothek.info/home/
Unfortunately, Margrit Kennedy is no longer alive. But her CV does exist in Wikipedia (engl.).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margrit_Kennedy
The book – Interest and Inflation free Money – suggests that central bankers should charge an annual fee for all cash and any deposits in simple bank accounts. She speaks of about 5-6%.
So it differs from God’s demand, who demanded 12% when the tithing was paid.
The difference is serious, but not nearly as big as that between zero and minus five to minus six percent. Whereby I would rather be for the divine specification.
Result of this central bank operation: the basis of the interest calculation would change.
The basis for calculating the interest is then not 100% but only 94-95%. With the divine application only 88%.
And that would have tremendous effects. It would be a matter of huge amounts of money worldwide, which would be distributed differently every year.
The losers in this central bank action would be today’s winners, the money elites.
Which also explains that apart from central bankers (who have been working intensively on it since the 2008/9 financial crisis), hardly anyone knows about it. And the few who report about it and get attention face the violent headwind.
It is not an easy matter. But once understood, a real eye opener.
Margrit Kennedy referred to the work of Silvio Gesell.
His CV also at the English-language Wikipedia.
Suggestion: Read the “Opinions of Gesell”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silvio_Gesell
And now also the link to his main work.
Silvio Gesell (1929)
https://www.silvio-gesell.de/the-natural-economic-order.html
This is reading material for many, many hours.
And imagine; in this system it is even possible to shrink without breaking it down. What is unthinkable in our current system. Keyword: system crash.
System crash because everyone is involved in the game, all pay tribute to the same system that has to grow at all costs so as not to cause any distortions as we are currently experiencing.
Individual countries have been hit countless times in the past. State bankruptcies without end.
Only this time, because everyone is intertwined, it will ultimately affect everyone. Unless we humans in democratic countries stop this madness. And get back on our feet.
A huge number of the current problems could then dissolve into nothing and create space for a new way of thinking. A way of thinking that also respects the limits of growth and resources.
I don’t want to hide the fact that I doubt that this will happen. If the Vatican and the Vatican Bank do not abide by God’s laws, then what can be expected from other, more secular institutions?
But at least I wanted to inform you about the alternative. Our media haven’t done it so far or I’ve overlooked it … it can be.
I fear we are rapidly moving from Shirshasana (Headstand pose) to Savasana (Corpse pose).
Nice try.
And now that I think about it again, you may be right. The path from the headstand (shirshasana) probably leads at least through a barely perceptible resting position (savasana). Then to switch balanced to Tadsana (the upright position).
Everything else is for acrobats.
You can imagine for yourself what this means for the change from the upside down to the upright world.
god didn’t demand tithing—the priests did.
Originally it would have been the means by which genuine priests doled out money to the destitute. Later it got corrupted into church income.
Because ‘holy buildings’ are expensive, and like every other human enterprise must constantly expand.
https://www.historytoday.com/archive/tithes-country-life
Why dyou think the televangelists keep demanding money from suckers? Look at cathedrals, and compare them to the average dwelling at the time they were built. Now they have megachurches and learjets
In 000s of years nothing has changed. They prey on people’s fears and ignorance
Holy buildings also provide jobs for workers. They were part of the economic infrastructure of the Middle Ages. Population was expanding too much for everyone to become farmers; farms would have to be cut into tiny pieces. Work on the cathedrals could start and stop as needed, if workers were needed for agriculture or wars.
All of these systems are self-organizing. The megachurches sometimes have recreational activities for children of members. They seem to fill a need that governments are not filling.
There are indeed a handful of televangelists with high incomes. There are also a lot of young people who have finished seminary and find themselves with a high level of debt. Today’s wages for pastors/priests are not high enough for young pastors to pay back their debt, without a spouse having a second income to help support the family.
country parishes in uk used to have what was called a ‘glebe’ which was a parcel of land set aside to provide a living for the priest
wages for building cathedrals came out of contributions paid by the laity–which made them essentially job creation schemes on the same basis we have today
i was under the impression that ordinary labourers gave thier time free to keep in god’s good books come reckoning time. —only skilled craftsmen got a decent wage
As to unemployed newly ordained priests, they seem to fall into the same category as other jobs that can only flourish in a ‘surplus’ society—art historians, avant garde musicians (my window cleaner has a degree in that) and so on. If there are too many of them, they have to find alternative real work.
In UK many priests were often the later sons of aristocracy, which also gave them some means of support, or at least social standing
Sound like somer of the foundation material we’ll need going forward. Good info!
“god didn’t demand tithing — the priests did.”
No. If you say so, you have not read the text. Certainly not the Bible texts. The third book of Moses (Leviticus) chapter 27 – God spoke to Moses – describes in detail the requirements of God and the implementing regulations.
And in Deuteronomy chapter 12 the procedure is again described. And also written about tithing consumption.
The prophets also report that there were repeated arguments about tithing and it follows from my text.
If it had only been about the care of the priesthood, the population would certainly have liked to give up two percent of the income instead of the 1% that the Levites and the priesthood received from tithing.
So the argument doesn’t work.
I will simply post part 1 again and immediately afterwards part 2 – and hope that Gail Tverberg will unlock him promptly, then it will become clear what tithing really was about.
I have enough trouble with Jwitnesses quoting chapter and verse at me on my doorstep—Though I’ve feeling a bit unsaved lately
Do they do emergency visits when I feel a mortal sin coming on? Or after I’ve committed one?. Cant even do that these days. ( and maintain social distance as well)
(your real nick isn’t doorstep by doorstep is it?)
I believe in biblical times, salt was a major form of currency—I can see why. Pinches could never be enough to go with it all.
The last thing we want to get into here is bible regulations..I might enjoy some of them till i got arrested.
Then the Jwitnesses would consign me to the outer darkness (provided there were 4 witnesses), where I would find myself in good company I daresay.
There are several books of human wisdom. The Bible is one of them. And no, I’m not the one who runs from door to door and tries to win followers.
I’m more of a loner.
But since 1994, when I first came into contact with Silvio Gesell’s theory, I had a lot of time to think.
And at some point I noticed contact with tithing.
In Germany, after experience 33-45, it is difficult to talk about topics such as interest and changes in the monetary system. To prevent this, I quoted the bible. Not even Angela Merkel’s Christian party can object to this.
I hope my statement calms you down.
awwww—cmon
I had a jwitness uncle, and I can remember even he laughed once
I think it was when I told him the earth was 4bn years old
Norman, tithes turned out not to be nearly enough. The mediaeval church invented two other money spinners. One was the sale of indulgences, which thanks to Luther we all remember. the other was the “cullagium”, a tax paid by clergy who kept concubines or catamites, which in those days seemed to be almost all of them. Sigh. As usual, power tends to corrupt.
Today, people talk about taxing the rich, with these fund being used to help the poor.
I think of indulgences as a very clever voluntary tax on the rich. They could give some of their wealth to the church (which in turn could hire nuns, priests, and cathedral builders) as a way to buy their way into heaven. Self-Organizing systems work in very strange ways!
Gail, I think one of the best ways to help the poor is to train them in a job that makes luxury goods (yachts, for instance). That way, the rich get value for money, and the poor get the whole sum paid. Put the government into the picture, and by the time the tax gatherers, the accountants, the politicians, the bureaucrats, and the social workers have all taken their cut, there isn’t much left for the poor.
CTG,
What do you think is going on? Im from the UK and lots of the major companies are getting silently bailed out, once again by central banks money printing.
Im aware that the conventional oil peaked in 2005 and since 2008 the whole system has been propped up by massive money printing debt. I remember in 2019 something big was brewing in the global economy and here we are it seems like the central banks just remedied it with massive money printing like always.
How long can they keep this ponzi financial monetary system going with debt? I find it strange how a global pandemic arrives as soon we were hearing alarm bells going about a coming global recession in 2019. How long can the central banks keep this system propped up with massive money printing from a implosion?
The world is self organizing and complex. Complexity always fail though it has resilience is some way. The endpoint is known and confirmed that it will collapse. Civilization is never permanent. History has shown time and again. Humans never learn. Our world, in the 2 decades has taken a lot hits and are normally wounded. We don’t know the exact time when it will end. In ancient times, it ends when the capital city is abandoned and the people moved away. Right now, it is worldwide and we are nor going to Mars.
Like Enron, WorldCom and Arthur Andersen, the employees are still buying company stocks right up the day the company ended. In hindsight, people asked why the employees are doing it right up till the day it went bankrupt? They also asked are the employees stupid? No, they do not have access to previledge information. They were in the dark. There may be some signs but normalcy bias was strong. Suddenly one day, they went to work and realized that the company did not exist anymore.
In order to preserve their status and cushy jobs, the top people will lie. 100% as certain as the sun will rise tomorrow. As critical thinking is gone, due to myriad of reasons, no one bothers to look for signs of impending doom. Those who are so unfortunate to be endowed with critical thinking are cast away and stigmatized. Happened before in history. Nothing new.
So yes, the signs are there. How long before the financial system collapse (no money coming out from ATM or hyperinflation), the supply chain breaks or the “pandemic” comes back with a vengeance? No one can answer. Just ask the employees of Enron who bought company stocks (just before the collapse) because his supervisor said that Enron has a very bright future the supervisor was just as duped as his employee. If you can read between the lines and catch my drift…..
Humanity is toast.
*mortally wounded
Right. We don’t know how long the system can be propped up. Quite a bit of the new debt is propping up companies that don’t really have a future. Also, giving wages to people who work for companies that don’t really have a future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBCUkdd57qc
Human coloring is not the issue. Our prejudice is explained so simply by Dr. Seuss in the story about the sneetches, and most people tend to think and relate this simplistically. To rise above this level and see the forest requires use of our critical thinking skills, which also entails becoming a grown up. Grown ups arguing with children is quite pointless. Now back to limits to growth….
A good example of the rhetorical style of a child. Caveat lector.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/04/lancet-retracts-major-covid-19-paper-that-raised-safety-concerns-about-malaria-drugs/
The Lancet, one of the world’s top medical journals, on Thursday retracted an influential study that raised alarms about the safety of the experimental Covid-19 treatments chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine amid scrutiny of the data underlying the paper.
Just over an hour later, the New England Journal of Medicine retracted a separate study, focused on blood pressure medications in Covid-19, that relied on data from the same company.
The retractions came at the request of the authors of the studies, published last month, who were not directly involved with the data collection and sources, the journals said.
“We can no longer vouch for the veracity of the primary data sources,” Mandeep Mehra of Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Frank Ruschitzka of University Hospital Zurich, and Amit Patel of University of Utah said in a statement issued by the Lancet. “Due to this unfortunate development, the authors request that the paper be retracted.”
“We can no longer vouch for the veracity of the primary data sources,”
No, you could *never* vouch for the veracity of the primary data sources, but you hoped to get away with it anyway. And why has the editor of one of the world’s top medical journals, now exposed four times as a perpetrator of hoaxes, not resigned?
A man walks up to you on the street and introduces himself as Napoleon Bonaparte. What do you do?
A. Put your head down and mumble, “Nice to meet you, I’m late for a meeting.”
B. Try to cure him by quoting statistics.
Obviously, you do A (or some variation) and move on. He is insane/delusional.
C: You say “Bonjour, mon Empereur”. The man is a “trans” character, and refusing to address him as such is now officially “hate speech”. And anyway, it’s a lot less absurd than a man with a Y chromosome demanding to be referred to as “she”.
D. You say, ‘Ah! Obviously you’ve changed your name by deed poll. How much did that cost?’
‘No’, he replies. ‘I am the great-great-great-great-great grandson of the great man himself and my parents named me after him!’
E. ‘Really. So you’ve met my friend Jacob von Floghume, then?’
https://assets.londonist.com/uploads/2015/06/i638/hogflume.jpg
“I’ve always wanted to visit St. Helena!”
“I’ve always wanted to visit St. Helena!”
Now why would you want to cheat on your poor wife?
I have. A weird little place.
Napoleon complex
I once worked for a boss who was born in Corsica, and who was much the same size as Napoleon, not to mention temperament. But he taught me a lot about technical management, which served me in good stead later.
no experience is ever wasted
‘I once worked for a boss who was born in Corsica, and who was much the same size as Napoleon, not to mention temperament. But he taught me a lot about technical management, which served me in good stead later.’
You’re old enough to have known Napoleon well enough to have compared him physically to your boss, and yet you were open enough to learn from him. Bravo!
“The energy industry’s bet that a petrochemicals boom would support decades of oil and gas sales growth is on shaky ground as an already saturated plastic market is hit by a coronavirus demand shock.”
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/pandemic-exposes-cracks-oil-majors-070630029.html
“The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry is set to face its first seasonal demand contraction since 2012, Wood Mackenzie said on Tuesday.”
https://www.kallanishenergy.com/2020/06/03/global-lng-demand-heads-to-1st-contraction-in-8-years/
According to the article,
With the rest of the world still in recession, it will be difficult for China to shift have enough demand to increase its LNG use.
Back when shale oil was booming in North Dakota, I heard executives talking about the plan they had to get rid of the short chains that they didn’t have room in pipelines for. They would make plastics out of it.
Maybe we can use more plastic in take out containers from restaurants, now that they can’t serve as many inside!
In terms of reaching thermodynamic an resource limits, the plainest issue of violence is whether we can afford it. With the balance of power implications of that.
The warship Bellerophon, a 74 gun 3rd rate wooden warship of the British navy, was constructed using a minimum of 2000 oak trees at least 100 years old. That kind of consumption can go on only as long as the forests last.
Meanwhile, the mayor’s of certain cities say that they are going to make swingeing cuts in their police budgets and redistribute the funds to community or social projects.
It is in budgets (of pethaps already broke cities) that we will see the clearest signs of trends in the resources/violence dynamic.
One rating puts New York City, Chicago, Philadelphia, Honolulu and San Francisco as the most broke cities. These cities would seem to be at risk of having to reduce their budgets.
The metro areas with the highest percentage of low income people, pre-COVID, were listed as follows:
1. McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas
2. Las Cruces, New Mexico
3. Laredo, Texas
4. Brownsville-Harlingen, Texas
5. Valdosta, Georgia
These metro areas don’t line up with the most violence.
seems to me that the cities with the highest rates of unemployment amongst youth would be the cities experiencing the most violence.
It could be. They haven’t had as much in the way of high school and college classes to keep them busy, either. They want something to do. They would like to be around friends of their own age. Protests are a way of doing this.
The original Bellerophon was the son of Poseidon, so the name of the ship was quite appropriate. She distinguished herself in three great naval battles: the Glorious First of June (1794), the Battle of the Nile (1798) and finally Trafalgar (1805). She later received Napoleon’s surrender after the Campaign of the Hundred Days (July 1815).
I am not that political but I wonder if this jobs report today is not manipulated. Seems strange
1,877,000 new claims for unemployment insurance (versus the 1,775 ,000 expected in a survey of economists) making for a total in excess of 42,000,000 since early March is still pretty glum.
“Even as states reopen, claims in the millions are an indicator that the economic pain of the COVID-19 crisis is still acute,” said Daniel Zhao, senior economist at job placement site Glassdoor.
“Continuing claims, which provide a clearer picture of how many Americans remain unemployed, totaled 21.5 million, a gain of 649,000 over the past week, also worse than Wall Street expected.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/04/weekly-jobless-claims.html
The headline in the WSJ is “US Unemployment Rate Fell to 13.3% in May.”
The article you linked says:
The stock market is up 952 points, and WTI oil is up to 39.01.
The problem is past, at least in some people’s view.
Not, apparently, in Mac10’s, lol:
“First off, I want to give Mark Zandi full props for being the biggest crack smoker in human history.”
https://zensecondlife.blogspot.com/2020/06/setting-up-biggest-crash-in-human.html?m=1
Biggest crack smoker AND still holding down a regular job….. 🙂
Hint:
One possibility is that many companies brought back employees to qualify for the PPP (Payroll Protection Plan).
But, I have been wrong before.
People brought back workers, not realizing that with social distancing requirements and many frightened customers, the number of actual sales will not support this level of employment.
Gail,
As a businessman/woman workers are brought back because they are valuable even if “only” restaurant workers. Skilled workers are very difficult to replace, a rumor is Mayo has had a great many “mature” nurses retire – they are the ones who pass their experience and clinic culture on to the next group. It takes years to put teams together, if they are gone the remaining capital is worth essentially nothing.
I always invested in my people, it was always a winning bet even if they did not work out, the remaining employees knew I valued them – a story if you will.
Dennis L.
Yes but could the numbers be manipulated. I know the U.s is not China but… something seems fishy
During the Bronze Age collapse. Men formed into gangs and took to the seas and brought war to CIvilizations all around the Mediterranean. Known as “Sea Peoples” only Egypt was able to beat them off. While other Civilizations had to keep fighting wave after wave of warriors until they ran out of resources.
Very interesting (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_Bronze_Age_collapse)
I’d noticed that the Egyptian “New Kingdom” had lost control of Palestine, about that time (something that gave me more pause about biblical fundamentalism: if the Isrealites had crossed the Gulf of Suez, & gone into Palestine, they would have been in more Egyptian territory — the books of Exodus & Joshua are heavily contradicted by history & archeology).
They crossed earlier.
The whole Exodus story is a fiction. Supposedly, two million people wandered around the desert for 40 years, and left not a single mark of their passage. And what did they eat? Manna, of course: that is how religions get discredited, they try to prop up one silly myth by another, sillier myth, and so on. And what did they drink? Water from a magic spring. Just how long would it take for two million people to get a daily cup of water from such a spring? Say 20 people at a time, and five seconds each. That’s 500,000 seconds, or almost 6 days, queueing day and night. Does not compute.
No, the Exodus story was written much later, at a time when the north eastern boundary of Egypt was the “River of Egypt” (Wadi El Arish) , and by someone who thought that had always been the case. The story is pure invention.
The version I have heard is that a much smaller number of people were involved. There were probably some elements of truth to it, but the story was improved upon as it was told.
Gail, there is probably some truth in the notion that some slaves escaped Egypt during the upheaval wrought by the Sea Peoples, but it is vanishingly unlikely they were the ancestors of the Hebrews. Perhaps the story got passed on and appropriated. At this remove in time, hard to tell. The Egyptians did not practice slavery as a society, but prisoners of war were certainly expected to work for their keep, which is near enough the same thing. And if they got free, naturally they would head for the hills, just as slaves did in the antebellum USA.
Robert, I find your lack of faith in Biblical literalism disturbing. 🙂
I find it interesting that when the Hebrews left Egypt, they took so much gold with them that they were able to make a golden calf. So I wondered if they were really slaves at all or if they came by that wealth honestly.
Of course if you don’t believe its possible. It’s inconceivable. Otherwise look at this:
http://www.tektonics.org/af/exoduslogistics.php
Its very possible.
There was a lot of intermarrying with people in the area, adding to the numbers of the Jews.
Also, the number of years between generations was more than what would be assume by looking at the genealogies in the Bible. They skip over many people in the list.
Thank you, info, for a most interesting reference. However, I fear it supports my thesis that religions prop up silly tales with sillier ones. Generation after generation, all having 10 or more children, at a time when child mortality was 30% to 50%. And among slaves, no doubt higher still. Again, does not compute.
I respectfully disagree. Joseph Campbell relates the importance of stories in peoples across all civilizations, from my perspective they are simple parables that work 80% of the time which is good enough. Campbell put it well when he said, “Myths are public dreams, dreams are private myths.” Calling them silly tales is condescending to those who believe and having a hypothesis that they prop up religions is pretentious.
Secular humanism has from my perspective been a failure expounded by an elite which exhibits a hubris in considerable excess of their demonstrated abilities. Much of what they preach is their vision of an imaginary world which leads to cogitative dissonance when compared with reality as generally experienced. Where as a myth is an allegorical version of the world, secular humanism seems to me to be a literal interpretation of of a vision of a group or philosopher, Marx comes to mind. It was tried, it hasn’t yet worked.
That ought to cover it, top of the evening to you in Malta.
Dennis L.
Denis, what you are saying sounds very reasonable to me.
Many tales will sound silly to people who don’t share the cultural perspective of the people who created and persevered the tales, because the stories usually don’t make sense unless people have been programmed to find them sensible, plausible or at least useful.
Having said that, it is remarkable how many ancient stories still delight audiences today despite the disappearances of cultures that created them and regardless of whether they are believed to be true in a literal sense.
On a related note, I think a lot of modern narratives that are part of our current official collective reality are silly tales—such as the nine-11 tale, the globbly wobbly tale and the coronavirus tale. But I recognize that those tales are told and shared and widely believed for a purpose—in order to get public support for or at least acquiescence in national or international policies that they might otherwise strongly object to.
Good point!
Liberal religions do not take “oral traditions” or even the more modern texts, literally. Even these were written many years after events supposedly took place. They look instead for insights on things like, “How should we treat our neighbors?” Religious services are more a platform for looking at things today. They are also social gathering places, especially for older women. Years ago, they were a good place for young people to meet a spouse. Now, with fewer young people attending churches, this is less the case.
I met my husband at a church. My only brother met his wife at a church.
Bad Bronze and Iron Age Fiction.
Plus, really violent.
We really need something better for our fictions and superstitions.
These are the stories people told their children. We can choose to believe them or not.
On the other hand, all the evidence points to the rather violent nature of life itself,an endless cycle of hunting, killing and consumption, and of human beings in particular -so perhaps it’s far more more realistic than fantasies of brotherly love and peace.
I agree, it’s just so poorly written (by numerous societies).
Superstitious writing can be good.
The Iliad, or anything by someone like Homer, is a treat to read.
We need better superstitions and even better ignorance .
Let’s keep the mind open.
The tales in the Bible must have suffered greatly in translation. When it was compiled, the scribes may have edited most of the best bits out of it and left all the boring “begat” “and “the Lord said unto” bits, In. The stories may have been a lot more entertaining in the original to native listeners.
once writing was established and came into common use, (as the next stage on from pictograms) seems to me that the first useful thing they did with it was to count what they had.
As it eems to have been roughly in parallel with early agriculture
the next logical use would be to write down all the legends of how we came to be.
even the dimmest nomad would recognise the significance of the umbilical cord, figuring out that there had to be a ‘start’ to it all— a historical chain which could only have been the work of ‘god’.
once that was written down, it becomes ‘holy writ’ after a few generations, and can’t be challenged. (heresy)
All this was at the end of the last ice age, so ‘great flood’ events would have been common, and associated climate changes. Great floods are likely to have been folk memories from 000s of years previously. The sahara dried out causing movements of people–always toward alternative water sources.. Another folk memory. Memories are almost always of good times past, (garden of eden?)
Stuff gets written down, , but once the writers are dead, later readers read it as contemporary material. One legend gets overlaid with another
The Ancient World was very violent. And yes it features the Bronze and Iron Age. You look down on our Ancestors and we are somehow the enlightened ones.
Robert, hmmm,
It was a very good try, it gave rise to a tribe that found its promised land, lost its nation and say 2,000 years returned as a nation, it gave rise to more Nobel laureates than any other group, a certain nation in the 1940’s tried to exterminate them, a bunch escaped, ended up in a northwestern desert town built from nothing and boom!
Very powerful story, it has endured. Written by God to keep his people together? Heard a better one lately that endured that long? It needs to refer to a tribe that is extant.
As for the water, well, maybe it was a big spring. A bit of humor, sometimes we take ourselves too seriously.
Dennis L.
Thank you, Dennis, for a most interesting and courteous response. I can only answer that I agree with almost all you say, but I regard it as a tribute to the enduring power of myth, which is indeed to be celebrated. As in Egypt they still celebrate the Divine Alexander (Iskander dhu l-qarnayn) after 2300 years. I also believe that myths may be false to fact, but capture an inner truth of the human psyche. You have probably noticed that I have been greatly influenced by Carl Gustav Jung.
made a great movie, if you believe the Red Sea is made of gelatin.
I think the view of the “demystifiers” is that the body of water in question was not the Red Sea, but the River of Egypt, which is quite shallow and can indeed be made dry by a wind from the right quarter. Rather a stretch, in my opinion, not least because it could never have drowned Pharaoh’s chariots. Another memory: our school chaplain once said he imagined a little fish, swimming through the Red Sea, suddenly finding itself swimming through that Cecil B de Mille wall, and finding itself in air. Poor little fish!
Just as history is written be the victors, maybe biblical stories were written by the survivors of past harsh times. Telling tales might have been a part of what made some groups survive and others not.
Fundamentalists: Moses really did part the Red Sea
Modernists: Maybe it was really the Sea of Reeds, or there was a really strong wind…
Postmodernists: Moses never existed, the whole story is a myth
Millennials: confuse Moses with Noah
interesting. another critic is the bottom of most seas and even rivers can be covered in fine silt and clay, which would be hard to walk through when wet and would probably “bog down” the pursuing chariots.
Medieval Europe found that one great drawback of the widespread use of mercenaries was that after they were paid off and had nowhere else to fight they would hang around the former employer’s lands doing pretty much what they wished. Which wasn’t good. But there was so much war there was usually someone available to employ them.
Agreed. Machiavelli had a very poor opinion of mercenaries, and (as usual) he was right.
Once they;d left off stomping behind a plough or wielding a scythe why would they wish to go back – unless rich from plunder and able to employ others to do the dirty work?
Good point, Xavier. But in fact many mercenaries were gently born, and recruited followers from their vassals and lower class neighbours. As Sir John Hawkwood (1323 to 1394), who terrorised much of Northern Italy. A fascinating man, knighted for his services to rapine and pillage, who adopted the arms “argent, on a chevron sable three escallops of the field”, also an interesting device to those who know blazonry.
Hello, Great write-up by Gail and like the references to the 1930s Great Depression….here is another similarity…
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/06/04/business/billionaire-wealth-inequality-pandemic-jobs/index.html
New York(CNN Business)The past three months have been financially painful for many Americans — but not for billionaires.
US billionaires have become $565 billion richer since March 18, according to a report published Thursday by the Institute for Policy Studies, a progressive think tank.
Total wealth for billionaires now stands at $3.5 trillion, up 19% from the low point near the beginning of the pandemic, the report said. Amazon (AMZN) boss Jeff Bezos alone is worth $36.2 billion more than he was on March 18.
That should make the have nots unhappy😭
Also, just posting this article about a scandal here in South Florida concerning Covid 19 testing.
Our Governor is pushing for testing and since a month ago more access to free unrestricted testing has been open. Too bad trying to get your RESULTS is a problem!😭
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-coronavirus-test-results-delays-20200530-lp4ib7alwvalnexltjkdddkue4-story.html
Healthy or not: One doctor, 12 coronavirus test sites, delayed results and plenty of frustrated people
What a scandal and my family went to one and could not get results at all!
Questions the whole concept of testing!
And testing is done at a scale, and for agendas that we the people have no control over.
Herbie, they are probably evaluated on the number of tests they perform, not the number of results they communicate. As usual, you get what you measure.
This looks like a nice American small town. Such clean litter-free streets. Such beautifully kept storefronts. Lots of regular guys and some gals on the street. No masks but lots of guns.
If you think you’re going to loot and riot in this town, you better think again.
https://153news.net/watch_video.php?v=8189OM5N251D
Living in Japan, I find the lack of masks amazing. It’s almost as if this is a protest against the lockdown as well as against the so-called “invasion”.
I’ll try to embed the video. Here goes!
Nah, if you want to see it, you’ll have to follow the link.
I find it amazing because here we have 95% mask-wearing. It has become established as a form of social etiquette and many stores won’t let you come inside if you aren’t wearing one.
Whereas in good old England the government can’t even summon both the sense and the authority to order users of public transport to wear masks as soon as they appear at a terminal/ station. The incompetence here passes all understanding.
Report on reactions to Covid-19 in Japan:
https://www.corbettreport.com/how-is-japan-reacting-now-questions-for-corbett-061/
JThanks for posting this, Jarle.
James Corbett is a near neighbor of mine. He lives about an hour from my place by rail or car. Also, although I’ve never met him or communicated with him, I’ve watched so many of his videos and I’m so familiar with his voice, face and mannerisms that I feel I know him personally.
Interesting video!
I put some charts together, showing how Japan is doing relative to some other countries that are frequently mentioned. It is doing phenomenally well!
This is cumulative reported cases:
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/japan-italy-sweden-uk-us-confirmed-covid-cases.png
Japan is way at the bottom. China would be similarly low.
This in new reported cases (7 day average)
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/japan-italy-uk-us-sweden-new-covid-cases-june-6.png
Japan had a little bit of a bump, but then it returned to practically zero. Sweden is the one rising.
This is the cumulative death rate. Japan is clearly the bottom of the chart. But the US is second lowest.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/japan-us-sweden-italy-uk-cumulative-deaths-from-covid-19-june-6.png
The thing that connects deaths to reported cases is the cumulative death rate (relative to reported cases). Reporting changes, depending on how extensively a country is testing. The US and Japan have much lower rates of deaths to cases than the other countries.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/japan-sweden-uk-us-italy-mortality-rates-june-6.png
A person might guess that Japan, with its older population would have a higher death rate. A person might think that the US, with its overweight population, would have a higher death rate. In fact, in the US, the death rate for blacks has been very much higher than that for whites–2.4 times as high as high as for whites, if I remember correctly. If a death rate for whites were computed, US death rates would be a lot lower.
Why are European death rates so high? Have they been using a lot more flu shots, and these flu shots make mortality higher?
And why is Japan’s experience so much better than everywhere else? It is right next to China, after all.
I found an article that mentions how high Japan’s Vitamin D levels are relative to the rest of Southeast Asia, because of eating fish. The article is concerned about osteoporosis in women, so it is written from that perspective. The article says:
It may be that Japan’s high Vitamin D level is what is preventing COVID-19 cases!
watched that video
interesting
why did i keep getting visual flashback of that great clip from ‘Blazing Saddles’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-VQGdHR3Vw
Gabby Hayes: The Sheriff is a n—Bbbbbbbbooooonnnnggggg
cracks me up every time
To whom it may concern,
this is “our finite world”, not “black = bad, white = good” or whatever similar.
To whomever it may concern,
You should write letters to the NYT editorial board, Los Angeles Times, MSNBC, Washington Times, et al. They have a group official policy of white= bad.
No, you should write letters telling that we are running out of cheap resources and that more and more debt won’t save us.
Keep grinding that axe, Kim.
In the final analysis to perceive reality through such a dense veil of simplistic racial prejudice with all the attendant bitterness evident in your posts is its own punishment.
Perhaps you should scold Jarle, who after all raised the issue unprompted. Tell him to give it a rest.
But somehow, I don’t see you as an unbiased arbiter in this matter.
Hypocrisy upon hypocrisy.
“… somehow, I don’t see you as an unbiased arbiter in this matter.”
Absolutely I’m not. Anyone who can denigrate an entire race of people as “evil, predatory, selfish and criminal” based on the behaviour of its most dysfunctional members, whilst making no sincere effort to place those dysfunctions in context, is not my cup of tea.
Anyone who can denigrate an entire race of people as “evil, predatory, selfish and criminal” based on the behaviour of its most dysfunctional members…
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QJ882QYzr-M
Cheers,
-GBV
Anyone who can denigrate an entire race of people as “evil, predatory, selfish and criminal” based on the behaviour of its most dysfunctional members, whilst making no sincere effort to place those dysfunctions in context, is not my cup of tea.
Well said. And i would hope nobody around here is consciously denigrating an entire race even the words might sound that way to some people reading them.
Wouldn’t it be more constructive to consider approaching this whole subject from another angle?
https://www.azquotes.com/picture-quotes/quote-if-we-re-gonna-progress-as-a-people-we-are-going-to-realise-that-as-one-of-my-favourite-saul-williams-31-61-27.jpg
“Perhaps you should scold Jarle, who after all raised the issue unprompted. Tell him to give it a rest.”
Mein Gott as some say …
Henry, with respect for a contributor whom I admire: it is not prejudice to tell the truth; it is prejudice to deny the truth and slander those who do tell it. I lived through the Nigerian civil war, and saw both the good and the bad. If we do not call them what they are, there will be less good, and more bad.
I often wonder why people feel the need to tell others that their world view is wrong, when simply stating that you do not share the same view would suffice.
If people want to hate other people because of the colour of their skin (not suggesting that Kim falls into this category), then who are we to stand in their way of being the best hater they can be? Likewise, if you do not want to bake a cake for a gay couple’s wedding, that should be fine as I’m sure there is some baker out there who likes money more that bigotry and intolerance.
It’s really our intolerance of differing views (“intolerance of intolerance”) that starts so many of these conflicts…
Though to be my own Devil’s Advocate for a moment, people who encounter resistance / conflict to their world view could stand to wise up a bit and recognize that ever view / approach to life has it’s downside, and that they do not occupy some sort of “moral high ground” as a result of their views / beliefs…
Cheers,
-GBV
GBV, thank you for a most thoughtful analysis, with which I agree without reservation. None of us here occupies the “moral high ground”, granted. But it does have an inhabitant: the truth. And, as a scientist brought up and trained, I respect the truth wherever it is found, even in China. And I follow the advice of many, from Giordano Bruno to Carl Sagan, that when we speak the truth, we light a candle in the darkness. To me, this present darkness is in dire need of those candles. Thank you for listening.
Thank you for your wise post, GBV.
FREE AFRICA
Freedom There = Freedom Here (the US, in particular)
Africa is often (simplistically) said to be free, but it is not. At the same time, there is a complex analytical requirement to clarify what and where Africa is.
???
The term Africa is used very loosely. Africa is a continent and not a nation state. The cultures and languages within the continent are very numerous and varied. So much so that high level recommendations have surfaced re dividing the continent (possibly for the purpose of congealing component parts into unified nations) into the section north of the Sahara (which is largely Arab) and the section south of it (which is largely Christian). But all of that suggests that the definition is up for grabs; it is mutable, not fixed. Some have thought that the definition and well being of “Black Africa” will determine how Black Americans see themselves and how they are regarded in the US.
I tried to post a response, but it didn’t seem to post. The same after I tried a second time. But I think I can save it to see how I can convey the gist of it in some different way,
“Africa’s debt crisis has been simmering for some time. Two years ago the imf was already anxious about a growing number of African countries in “debt distress” or at high risk of it.
“This crisis was brought to the boil by covid-19, which has caused economies to shrink and tax revenues to plunge.”
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/06/06/african-governments-face-a-wall-of-debt-repayments
And while I can’t say why/how exactly, the same condition seems to prevail in the former British Caribbean.
I know that poor old Barbados has one of the highest debt to GDP ratios in the world and defaulted on its bonds in 2018.
Over 90% of food imported and over 90% of energy from imported fossil fuels, apparently.
A lot of African nations export commodities. If the prices of commodities are too low, the income that the workers can earn is low as well. The taxes government can collect are also low. So the general situation is poor. The developed world has sold all kinds of projects in Africa, leading to lots of debt for African nations. If commodity prices were very high, there would be less problem. But exploitation by rich countries is part of the problem, too.
The term Africa is used very loosely. Africa is a continent and not a nation state. The cultures and languages within the continent are very numerous and varied. So much so that high level recommendations have surfaced re dividing the continent (possibly for the purpose of congealing component parts into unified nations) into the section north of the Sahara (which is largely Arab) and the section south of it (which is largely Christian). But all of that suggests that the definition is up for grabs; it is mutable, not fixed. Some have thought that the definition and well being of “Black Africa” will determine how Black Americans see themselves and how they are regarded in the US.
Don’t forget the Berbers in North Africa, Artleads!
A fascinating people, who fought the Arabs tooth and nail, under a magnificent fighting queen, and then formed the spearhead of the conquest of Spain. Shafted by the Arabs, they got the worst land when it was all carved up….
Their eco-friendly farmhouses are worth studying – heated by underground cows and delightfully painted.
Yes indeed: Queen Dihya (the arabs called her Al Kahina) fought a noble if losing battle against the invader. People forget that North Africa was once peaceful, stable, civilised, and a part of the wider oikumene. Until it was destroyed by the Arab and the goat.
Xabier and Harry, thanks for the info.
Africa is also being divided by the Great Rift Valley. That will eventually widen and split off East Africa from the rest of the continent not very long into the future in geological time.
The real issue is that we live in a world in which ecosystems of all kinds are governed by “survival of the best adapted.”
People indeed do have a mix of abilities:
-Women can be mothers of babies, and can nurse them during the first couple of years of life; men can’t do these things.
-Men tend to be stronger than women.
-Some men can do physically demanding work longer than others, in ore harsh conditions
-Some people have more “people skills” than others
-Some people are more artistic than others
-Some people can see colors better than others
-Some people have better memories than others
-Some people do better on IQ tests than others
-Some people are better at eye-hand co-ordination than others
-Light skinned people make Vitamin D more efficiently in northern climates than dark skinned people do.
Women started entering the workforce in large numbers in the 1960s and 1970, after the birth control pill allowed families to more easily limit the number of children they had. The addition of machine and computers eliminated a lot of physically demanding work. It looked at that time as if any person could do any job, equally well, if the person had proper training for it. It was clear, however, that women made a lot less money than men, on average, and black people made less money than white people.
The Civil Rights Act of 1964 banned discrimination based on race, color, religion, or national origin. The Women’s Liberation movement emerged in the late 1960s. A lot of big newspapers jumped in to support these movements. They couldn’t understand why blacks and women didn’t make more progress than they did.
I saw the women’s side of this. I was in a high paying profession, but I chose to work part-time most of my life. Full time consulting actuaries were working 60 hours a week, with lots of travel. They were expected to “wine and dine” clients, when they met with them. This did not fit in with trying to raise three children, one of which was mildly autistic. Also, the school system didn’t always work out well. There were no buses to private schools, and it was helpful to have someone at home when we did home schooling. So I varied my part time percentages (60% to 80%) and turned down offers to move to another location, where I could “grow” an office.
With respect to blacks, the problem is that the ability mix of blacks seems to be different from whites and asians. Blacks tend not to do well on IQ tests. Becoming an actuary in the US requires passing a number of tests. A person’s race cannot be determined by those grading the exams. There is no underlying college degree requirement. The actuarial profession has been trying to find more blacks, but according to this website, only 2% are black. I am certain that Asians are over represented in the actuarial field. They tend to do well on exams.
Back, when physical strength, coordination, and ability to work in hot conditions was important for jobs, black men did reasonably well. But then these jobs went away, and black men have had a hard time finding other jobs where they did as well as other races. When I look at publications from universities, it is clear that university management is bending over backwards to try to include black faculty and students. But the dropout rates of blacks tend to be higher. They tend to be the ones left with more debt, too. It is hard to start from behind and catch up.
I found a study relating to the problems of African American boys, and their poor language development. One paragraph says,
Gail, I did not notice much “poor language development” among real Africans. Many of them could speak Hausa, English, French, and Arabic. Even primary school children could read the Koran, albeit rather slowly. I think the problem with the American tribes is that if they try to speak well, they are bullied by their peers. And many of them are victims of “the bigotry of low expectations”. Which affirmative action only reinforces (as it was intended to do).
“China’s exports likely tumbled in May after a surprising rebound the previous month as global coronavirus lockdowns continued to devastate demand…
“Both official and private factory surveys for May showed sub-indexes for export orders remained in contraction, suggesting strong external headwinds on Chinese exporters in the near term.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-economy-trade-poll/china-may-exports-seen-tumbling-as-coronavirus-hits-demand-imports-fall-reuters-poll-idUKKBN23C0MU?il=0
“The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic has exacerbated the downward trend in exports from Latin America that had been observed since last year and the future does not seem encouraging, revealed a report by the Inter-American Development Bank…
“China, the engine for the region’s external sector in recent years, has paralyzed its demand to the region.”
https://santiagotimes.cl/en/2020/06/04/latin-american-exports-fall-sharply-amid-covid-19-pandemic-idb-report/
It sounds like Latin America wasn’t doing well a year ago either:
“Thailand’s economy will contract more than expected this year and the jobs outlook to deteriorate sharply from the impact of the coronavirus outbreak, minutes from the central bank’s latest meeting showed on Thursday.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/thailand-economy-minutes/update-1-thai-economy-to-shrink-more-than-expected-as-job-losses-mount-cbank-minutes-idUKL4N2DH0P7
“In the weeks before she took her own life, Thai waitress Nitiwadee Sae-Tia felt growing financial pressure after she lost her job, a member of the family said.
“She was one of millions of Thais who lost their jobs after lockdown restrictions to combat the spread of the coronavirus forced malls and other public venues to close in March.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-thailand-suicide/calls-to-suicide-helpline-show-thais-stress-in-downturn-idUKKBN23B3GU
May she find welcome, comfort, and healing in the Pure Land. Or, as my religion calls it, the Field of Offerings, Sekhet Hetepu.
It is hard to recover without jobs for workers.
“India is gradually unlocking its economy after a shutdown that lasted more than two months.
“But it’s unlikely to be business as usual for millions of retailers, small enterprises and factories… they are all bogged down by low demand, falling exports, labour shortages and new rules of operation requiring social distancing and other safety measures to curb the pandemic.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-52905093
“India Risks Junk Status As Economy Faces 10% Contraction:
“The kind way to interpret India getting downgraded this week is that the news could’ve been worse… Can formal junk status really be far off?”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/williampesek/2020/06/04/india-risks-junk-status-as-economy-faces-10-contraction/#2a757e3f68ae
“World Steel Association on Thursday said India’s steel demand may fall by a steep 18% to 83.3 million tonne (MT) in 2020 from 101.5 MT in 2019.”
https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/indias-steel-demand-may-slump-by-18-per-cent-this-year/1981838/
“The Covid-19 outbreak and the ensuring lockdown has hurt almost all industries in India, but for the country’s $370 billion shadow banking sector, this might be the last nail in the coffin.”
https://qz.com/india/1860466/how-indias-nbfc-crisis-deepened-from-ilfs-defaults-to-covid-19/
With only a one-step down-grade, we can pretend things are O. K. for a bit longer.
The violence is the result of not enough resources to solve the complexity, i. e. inappropriate reactions to the particular problems/situations.
If we talk about the limits to growth, the violence is the result of seeing the world less complex than it really is (becoming).
With the rising population, the complexity is going up.
The humans solve the problem of the rising population with decrasing the living space and the construction of the buildings that are higher and higher.
The violence is the result of the conficts that arise from the inability to further decrease the living space and go higher and higer, as regards the living space. That way the wars and various conflict over land arise, which are in fact the conflicts about the living space.
There are various factors that influence the possiblity of increasing the complexity: enough drinking water and water for hygiene, food etc. The energy underlies all of them, because it is the energy (human or other) that brings resources to the places where they are needed.
The human settlements are the centers where the resources concentrate. As soon as the resources start to dvindle, the growth of the human settlements stops and the dieout starts. It can have various forms: diseases, violence, malnourishment…
Recently, I had such a conflict with my neighbour: he was a police officer, the district police chief before he retired. He has 4 children with 2 women, he separated with the first wife. He gave a part of his plot to one of his sons to build a house. But the trick is the son started the construction without the legal permissions, violating various norms, including the rights of the neighbours etc. The problem is also the pollution – discharge of the wastewater, not enough underground water for the new construction etc. One interesting thing about this officer is that he is a member of the hunters organization. Guess what was his conflict of the interests during his service: the law protected vermins that endanger the wild game…
But the increased number of the hunters is just the product of the industrialized agriculture. Once the industrialized agriculture increases the protection of the fileds or collapses, the number of the hunters becomes too high… The father who is the hunter startes to compete with his son who is a hunter, too.
The domestic violence often leads to the separation and the divorces of the partners. They can start a new relationship, but the underlying resources/energy problems often pertain and even get worse without realizing them, if they e.g. have some secure jobs in the state financed organizations/administration.
That way the policemen are more exposed to the discrepancies regarding how the reality is and how it is pictured. Furthemore, being on the justice can give them some feeling of the superiority over the rest of the people.
I meant “on the justice side”.
Thanks for your example. We try to find ways to work around the shortages, but ultimately they don’t really work, no matter how hard we try. Even the policeman can’t find the way around.
With a 5% contraction of world energy consumption and world GDP and 350 million of world middle class people thrown into absolute poverty every year… violence will rise globally.
Tribal conflict, ethnic conflict, religious conflict, racial conflict, class conflict…and so on.
To create unity within nations, a foreign enemy must be created, and then nations go to war against each others.
The US owns the world reserve currency and the biggest military force in the world. The US will do better than other nations.
The Chinese comrades seems to have thrown a monkey wrench into the system though with the release of the virus into the world.
The US also has close to the most arable land per resident. It also has energy resources, but they may be too expensive to really use.
I don’t know how winners and loser will work. There may be no winners, or winners may be parts of countries. Or a reasonable year-around climate may be what determines winners and losers.
Gail, the US arable land is being systematically destroyed by agribusiness. Truly arable land should not need artificial fertiliser, but should subsist on the natural fertiliser recycled from animals and humans. But a more acute problem is water. Much US agriculture relies on fossil water, and it is rapidly running out.
Ghost shops, waiting for goods from ghost ships, sailing and sailing to arrive….one day.
Maybe you have fb? I add you
Simple solution, Xabier. Just build bamboo harbours, with bamboo lighthouses lit by tame fireflies, and wait on the beach for the Cargo to come. Or if that is not silly enough, try Modern Monetary Theory, and pay for the cargo with ones and zeros, which are still capable of infinite growth.
“Some shipping lines, whose retail customers are being hammered by the coronavirus pandemic, are reducing sailing speeds and taking longer routes around Africa, avoiding Suez canal passage fees, according to the companies and ship-tracking specialists.
“Many are also cutting down the number of voyages and providing short-term storage for clients as the industry, which includes heavyweights like Maersk (MAERSKb.CO), MSC and Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG.DE), faces its biggest downturn since the 2008 financial crisis.
“The new tactics not only save on costs, but also help adapt to the needs of cash-crunched retailers – among their biggest customers – who are stuck with huge inventory surpluses thanks to COVID-19 store closures and a collapse in consumer demand.
“Slower shipping times also means importers can delay payments made on delivery.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-shipping-retail/ocean-shipping-shrinks-as-pandemic-pummels-retailers-idUKKBN23C0MS
“The International Air Transport Association (IATA) stated that global passenger demand in April decreased by 94.3% compared to April last year.
“The decrease was attributed to the travel restrictions due to Covid-19, which shut down the international and domestic travel.”
https://www.airport-technology.com/news/iata-passenger-demand-april/
“The global economic growth in 2020 [such as it was] has been eclipsed since the Covid-19 pandemic outbreak causing fears of looming unemployment and recession in a number of countries.
“Verdict has been tracking the optimism over global economic recovery through an online poll started in April and still ongoing in 22 of the network’s websites.”
https://www.verdict.co.uk/optimism-over-global-economic-recovery-hits-a-low-as-may-ends-poll-analysis/
The title of this article is, “Optimism over global economic recovery hits a low as May ends: Poll analysis.”
Now, as unemployment ticks lower, optimism seems to shoot up.
Creative! Just take longer for shipping, and you can take longer for payment.