Why a Great Reset Based on Green Energy Isn’t Possible

It seems like a reset of an economy should work like a reset of your computer: Turn it off and turn it back on again; most problems should be fixed. However, it doesn’t really work that way. Let’s look at a few of the misunderstandings that lead people to believe that the world economy can move to a Green Energy future.

[1] The economy isn’t really like a computer that can be switched on and off; it is more comparable to a human body that is dead, once it is switched off.

A computer is something that is made by humans. There is a beginning and an end to the process of making it. The computer works because energy in the form of electrical current flows through it. We can turn the electricity off and back on again. Somehow, almost like magic, software issues are resolved, and the system works better after the reset than before.

Even though the economy looks like something made by humans, it really is extremely different. In physics terms, it is a “dissipative structure.” It is able to “grow” only because of energy consumption, such as oil to power trucks and electricity to power machines.

The system is self-organizing in the sense that new businesses are formed based on the resources available and the apparent market for products made using these resources. Old businesses disappear when their products are no longer needed. Customers make decisions regarding what to buy based on their incomes, the amount of debt available to them, and the choice of goods available in the marketplace.

There are many other dissipative structures. Hurricanes and tornadoes are dissipative structures. So are stars. Plants and animals are dissipative structures. Ecosystems of all kinds are dissipative structures. All of these things grow for a time and eventually collapse. If their energy source is taken away, they fail quite quickly. The energy source for humans is food of various types; for plants it is generally sunlight.

Thinking that we can switch the economy off and on again comes close to assuming that we can resurrect human beings after they die. Perhaps this is possible in a religious sense. But assuming that we can do this with an economy requires a huge leap of faith.

[2] Economic growth has a definite pattern to it, rather than simply increasing without limit. 

Many people have developed models reflecting the fact that economic growth seems to come in waves or cycles. Ray Dalio shows a chart describing his view of the economic cycle in a preview to his upcoming book, The Changing World Order. Figure 1 is Dalio’s chart, with some annotations I have added in blue.

Figure 1. New World Order chart by Ray Dalio from an introduction to his theory called The Changing World Order. Annotations in blue added by Gail Tverberg.

Modelers of all kinds would like to think that there are no limits in this world. Actually, there are many limits. It is the fact that economies have to work around limits that leads to cycles such as these. Some examples of limits include inadequate arable land for a growing population, inability to fight off pathogens, and an energy supply that becomes excessively expensive to produce. Cycles can be expected to vary in steepness, both on the upside and the downside of the cycle.

The danger of ignoring these cycles is that researchers tend to create models of future economic growth and future energy consumption that are far out of sync with what really can be expected. Accurate models need to include at least some limited version of overshoot and collapse on a regular basis. Models of the future economy tend to be based on what politicians would like to believe will happen, rather than what actually can be expected to happen in the real world.

[3] Commodity prices behave differently at different stages of the economic cycle. During the second half of the economic cycle, it becomes difficult to keep commodity prices high enough for producers. 

There is a common belief that demand for energy products will always be high, because everyone knows we need energy. Thus, according to this belief, if we have the technology to extract fossil fuels, prices will eventually rise high enough that fossil fuel resources can easily be extracted. Many people have been concerned that we might “run out” of oil. They expect that oil prices will rise to compensate for the shortages. Thus, many people believe that in order to maintain adequate supply, we should be concerned about supplementing fossil fuels with nuclear power and renewable energy.

If we examine oil prices (Figure 2), it is apparent that, at least recently, this is not the way oil prices actually behave. Since the spike in oil prices in 2008, the big problem has been prices that fall too low for oil producers. At prices well below $100 per barrel, development of many new oil fields is not economic. Low oil prices are especially a problem in 2020 because travel restrictions associated with the coronavirus pandemic reduce oil demand (and prices) even below where they were previously.

Figure 2. Weekly average spot oil prices for Brent, based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.

Strangely enough, coal prices (Figure 3) seem to follow a very similar pattern to oil prices, even though coal is commonly believed to be available in huge supply, and oil is commonly believed to be in short supply.

Figure 3. Selected Spot Coal Prices, from BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy. Prices are annual averages. Price for China is Qinhuangdao spot price; price for US is Central Appalachian coal spot index; price for Europe is Northwest European marker price.

Comparing Figures 2 and 3, we see that prices for both oil and coal rose to a peak in 2008, then fell back sharply. The timing of this drop in prices corresponds with the “debt bust” in late 2008 that is shown in Figure 1.

Prices then rose to another peak in 2011, after several years of Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is intended to hold the cost of borrowing down, encouraging the use of more debt. This debt can be used by citizens to buy more goods made with coal and oil (such as cars and solar panels). Therefore, QE is a way to increase demand and thus help raise energy prices. In the 2011-2014 period, oil was able to maintain its price better than coal, perhaps because of its short supply. Once the United States discontinued its QE program in 2014, oil prices dropped like a rock (Figure 2).

Prices were very low in 2015 and 2016 for both coal and oil. China stimulated its economy, and prices for both coal and oil were able to rise again in 2017 and 2018. By 2019, prices for both oil and coal were falling again. Figure 2 shows that in 2020, oil prices have fallen again, as a result of demand destruction caused by pandemic shutdowns. Coal prices have also fallen in 2020, according to Trading Economics.

[4] The low prices since mid-2008 seem to be leading to both peak crude oil and peak coal. Crude oil production started falling in 2019 and can be expected to continue falling in 2020. Coal extraction seems likely to start falling in 2020.

In the previous section, I showed that crude oil and coal both have the same problem: Prices tend to be too low for producers to make a profit extracting them. For this reason, investment in new oil wells is being reduced, and unprofitable coal mines are being closed.

Figure 4 shows that world crude oil production has not grown much since 2004. In fact, OPEC’s production has not grown much since 2004, even though OPEC countries report high oil reserves so, in theory, they could pump more oil if they chose to.

Figure 4. World crude oil production (including condensate) based on data from BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy. Russia+ refers to the group Commonwealth of Independent States.

In total, BP data shows that world crude oil production fell by 582,000 barrels per day, comparing 2019 to 2018. This represents a drop of 2.0 million barrels per day in OPEC production, offset by smaller increases in production for the US, Canada, and Russia. Crude oil production is expected to fall further in 2020, because of low demand and prices.

Because of continued low coal prices, world coal production has been on a bumpy plateau since 2011. Prices seem to be even lower in 2020 than in 2019, putting further downward pressure on coal extraction in 2020.

Figure 5. World coal production based on data from BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy.

[5] Modelers missed the fact that fossil fuel extraction would disappear because of low prices, leaving nearly all reserves and other resources in the ground. Modelers instead assumed that renewables would always be an extension of a fossil fuel-powered system.

The thing that most people do not understand is that commodity prices are set by the laws of physics, so that supply and demand are in balance. Demand is really very close to “affordability.” If there is too much wage/wealth disparity, commodity prices tend to fall too low. In a globalized world, many workers earn only a few dollars a day. Because of their low wages, these low-paid workers cannot afford to purchase very much of the world’s goods and services. The use of robots tends to produce a similar result because robots can’t actually purchase goods and services made by the economy.

Thus, modelers looking at Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI) for wind and for solar assumed that they would always be used inside of a fossil fuel powered system that could provide heavily subsidized balancing for their intermittent output. They made calculations as if intermittent electricity is equivalent to electricity that can be controlled to provide electricity when it is needed. Their calculations seemed to suggest that making wind and solar would be useful. The thing that was overlooked was that this was only possible within a system where other fuels would provide balancing at a very low cost.

[6] The same issue of low demand leading to low prices affects commodities of all kinds. As a result, many of the future resources that modelers count on, and that companies depend upon as the basis for borrowing, are unlikely to really be available.

Commodities of all kinds are being affected by low demand and low selling prices. The problem giving rise to low prices seems to be related to excessive specialization, excessive use of capital goods to replace labor, and excessive use of globalization. These issues are all related to the needs of a world economy that depends on a high level of technology. In such an economy, too much of the output of the economy goes to producing devices and to paying highly trained workers. Little is left for non-elite workers.

The low selling prices of commodities makes it impossible for employers to pay adequate wages to most of their workers. These low wages, in turn, feed through to the uprisings we have been seeing in the last couple of years. These uprisings are part of “Revolutions and Wars” mentioned in Figure 1. It is difficult to see how this problem will disappear without a major change in the “World Order,” mentioned in the same figure.

Because the problem of low commodity prices is widespread, our ability to produce electrical backup of all kinds, including the ability to make batteries, can be expected to become an increasing problem. Commodities, such as lithium, suffer from low prices, not unlike the low prices for coal and oil. These low prices lead to cutbacks in their production and local uprisings.

[7] On a stand-alone basis, intermittent renewables have very limited usefulness. Their true value is close to zero.

If electricity is only available when the sun is shining, or when the wind is blowing, industry cannot plan for its use. Its use must be limited to applications where intermittency doesn’t matter, such as pumping water for animals to drink or desalinating water. No one would attempt to smelt metals with intermittent electricity because the metals would set at the wrong time, if the intermittent electricity suddenly disappeared. No one would power an elevator with intermittent electricity, because a person could easily be trapped between floors. Homeowners would not use electricity to power refrigerators, because, as likely as not, the food would spoil when electricity was off for long periods. Traffic signals would work sometimes, but not always.

Lebanon is an example of a country whose electricity system works only intermittently. It is hard to imagine that any other country would want to imitate Lebanon. Lack of reliable electricity supply leads to protests in Lebanon.

[8] The true cost of wind and solar has been hidden from everyone, using subsidies whose total cost is hard to determine.

Each country has its own way of providing subsidies to renewables. Most countries give wind and solar the subsidy of “going first.” They are often given a fixed rate as well. Both of these are subsidies. In the US, other subsidies are buried in the tax system. Recently, there has been talk of using QE to help wind and solar providers lower their cost of borrowing.

Newspapers regularly report that the price of wind and solar is at “grid parity,” but this is not an apples to apples comparison. To be useful, electricity needs to be available when users need it. The cost of storage is far too high to allow us to store electricity for weeks and months at a time.

If we were to use intermittent electricity as a substitute for fossil fuels in general, we would need to use intermittent electricity to heat homes and offices in winter. Sunshine is abundant in the summer, but not in the winter. Without storage, solar panels cannot even be counted on to provide homeowners with heat for cooking dinner after the sun sets in the evening. An incredibly huge amount of storage would be needed to store heat from summer to winter.

China reports that it has $42 billion in unpaid clean energy subsidies, and this amount is getting larger each year. Countries are now becoming poorer and the taxes they are able to collect are lower. Their ability to subsidize a high cost, unreliable electricity system is disappearing.

[9] Wind, solar, and hydroelectric today only comprise a little under 10% of the world’s energy supply. 

We are deluding ourselves if we think we can get along on such a tiny total energy supply.

Figure 6. Hydroelectric, wind, and solar electricity as a percentage of world energy supply, based on BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Few people understand what a small share of the world’s energy supply wind and solar provide today. The amounts shown in Figure 6 assume that the denominator is total energy (including oil, for example), not just electricity. In 2019, hydroelectric accounted for 6.4% of world energy supply. Wind accounted for 2.2%, and solar accounted for 1.1%. The three together amounted to 9.7% of the world’s energy supply.

None of these three energy types is suited to producing food. Oil is currently used for tilling fields, making herbicides and pesticides, and transporting refrigerated crops to market.

[10] Few people understand how important energy supply is for giving humans control over other species and pathogens.

Control over other species and pathogens has been a multistage effort. In recent years, this effort has involved antibiotics, antivirals and vaccines. Pasteurization became an important technique in the 1800s.

Humans’ control over other species started over 100,000 years ago, when humans learned to burn biomass for many uses, including cooking foods, scaring away predators, and burning down entire forests to improve their food supply. In my 2018 post, Supplemental energy puts humans in charge, I wrote about one proof of the importance of humans’ control of fire. In the lower layers of a cave in South Africa, big cats were in charge: There were no carbon deposits from fire and gnawed human bones were scattered around the cave. In the upper layers of the same cave, humans were clearly in charge. There were carbon deposits from fires, and bones of big cats that had been gnawed by humans were scattered around the cave.

We are dealing with COVID-19 now. Today’s hospitals are only possible thanks to a modern mix of energy supply. Drugs are very often made using oil. Personal protective equipment is made in factories around the world and shipped to where it is used, generally using oil for transport.

Conclusion

We do indeed appear to be headed for a Great Reset. There is little chance that Green Energy can play more than a small role, however. Leaders are often confused because of the erroneous modeling that has been done. Given that the world’s oil and coal supply seem to be declining in the near term, the chance that fossil fuel production will ever rise as high as assumptions made in the IPCC reports seems very slim.

It is true that some Green Energy devices may continue to operate for a time. But, as the world economy continues to head downhill, it will be increasingly difficult to make new renewable devices and to repair existing systems. Wholesale electricity prices can be expected to stay very low, leading to the need for continued subsidies for wind and solar.

Figure 1 indicates that we can expect more revolutions and wars at this stage in the cycle. At least part of this unrest will be related to low commodity prices and low wages. Globalization will tend to disappear. Keeping transmission lines repaired will become an increasing problem, as will many other tasks associated with keeping energy supplies available.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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2,650 Responses to Why a Great Reset Based on Green Energy Isn’t Possible

  1. Harry McGibbs says:

    “…there is bipartisan support for a Cold War style strategy of containment against China. And that includes something like a new NATO, suggested by the Brits, called the G-10…

    “The U.S. will likely reshore critical and strategic supplies — from rare earth minerals to medical supplies.”

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/07/31/china-facing-strategy-of-containment-in-new-cold-war/#40a10a0d31ed

  2. Harry McGibbs says:

    “OPEC oil output has risen by over 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in July as Saudi Arabia and other Gulf members ended their voluntary extra supply curbs on top of an OPEC-led deal, and other members made limited progress on compliance.”

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-survey/opec-july-oil-output-surges-as-gulf-voluntary-cuts-end-survey-idUSKCN24W28O

  3. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Images of rioting protesters in the news… are scaring people eager for a break from the coronavirus lockdown from venturing out, according to an unusual study of how the US is trying to inch back to normal.”

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/protests-riots-scaring-people-from-going-out-traveling

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Riots could sweep the UK if authorities do not reduce tensions over local coronavirus lockdowns, policing tactics, Black Lives Matter and political polarisation, scientific advisers have warned.”

      https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-riots-2011-black-lives-matter-police-coronavirus-lockdown-a9648761.html

      • Kim says:

        What special knowledge would “scientific advisors” have to give advice on BLM, policing tactics, and the other listed items?

        Truly, many of these links you post here are just the most outrageous gaslighting.

        • Harry McGibbs says:

          You don’t need a background in science or academia to see how the UK could follow the US into civil unrest but FWIW this is the body that is opining here:

          “The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) provides scientific and technical advice to support government decision makers during emergencies.”

          https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies/about

          • Very Far Frank says:

            I think the point Kim is making is that management of those subjects are value judgements; there is no objectively ‘correct’ way to deal with them.

            • Harry McGibbs says:

              I cannot disagree with this.

              I hope OFW readers understand that I post a patchwork quilt of news articles to follow the overarching themes in Gail’s analysis andnot because I endorse or seek to promote any of the political biases on display in those articles.

        • Ed says:

          Kim, I think it is a method to deflect blame from politicians on to the group of experts.

        • Xabier says:

          I think we are now well past the point when we are inclined to genuflect at the mention of science – above all ‘social science’…..

          Their stance seems quite politically biased. Radical Leftism and Braindeadism is the real political and public order threat.

      • I would expect anything that makes it less possible for people to purchase the goods and services they need (falling incomes or missing goods from stores) could make the rioting situation worse. I notice that 7-day average reported COVID-19 UK COVID cases have almost doubled since their low on July 6.

  4. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Tens of millions of Americans face financial devastation after losing access to emergency US$600 ($840) per week payments because Democrats and Republicans failed to agree on a new coronavirus relief deal.

    “The average unemployed worker will lose 61 per cent of their benefit, with laid-off workers in some states losing up to three quarters of their income, after the emergency payments expired at midnight on Friday.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/millions-in-us-face-financial-ruin-as-emergency-jobless-benefits-end-20200801-p55hiw.html

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “One of the world’s major credit-rating companies fired a warning shot regarding the U.S.’s worsening public finances on Friday…

      “Fitch Ratings revised its outlook on the country’s credit score to negative from stable, citing a “deterioration in the U.S. public finances and the absence of a credible fiscal consolidation plan.”

      ““High fiscal deficits and debt were already on a rising medium-term path even before the onset of the huge economic shock precipitated by the coronavirus,” Fitch said. “They have started to erode the traditional credit strengths of the U.S.””

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-31/united-states-outlook-revised-to-negative-from-stable-by-fitch

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        “…the US currency has suffered its poorest monthly performance in 10 years… The 5 per cent drop in the value of the dollar in July might sound modest, but in the relatively stable foreign exchange market that counts as dramatic…

        ” old is soaring to record nominal highs as investors seek an alternative to the US currency. Some are openly asking, once again, whether US institutions are now too weak for the world to rely on the dollar.”

        https://www.ft.com/content/7c963379-10df-4314-9bd0-351ddcdc699e

        • the rise in the gold price is the barometer of global financial affairs.

          there is almost nowhere else to stash cash.

          all other productive commercial systems need the ongoing consumption of cheap surplus oil on a global scale on which to thrive (that includes us btw).

          That rate of use has now drastically slowed, which removes the value-support of our medium of exchange, — essentially paper money.
          Paper money is worth only what our collective belief says it is worth. We will hang on to that belief as long as supermarkets and petrol stations are full, and the majority of people have the means to buy what they need.

          If that belief evaporates then our commercial system is over, We are seeing that (and have seen it for a while now) in countries where the debt to GDP is rocketing out of control.

          Which is another way of saying that they are (in some way) borrowing from their future to support their present.

          The promise being, that in true Dickensian fashion, ‘something is bound to turn up’.

          Let’s hope it does.

        • Given the huge amount of support the Federal Reserve has been giving to try to keep the US economy afloat, it should not be a surprise that the dollar is falling. The support also isn’t really targeted very well, leading to some with much more cash, and many others out protesting regarding lack of income.

          • Kowalainen says:

            Getting the manufacturing industry back to the US does not come cheap. Devaluing the dollar makes the manufacturing base more profitable. There is no lack of natural resources in the US.

            • We are not very much interested in very polluting industries, however.

            • Kowalainen says:

              Are you aware that transportation and energy production are the most polluting “industries”?

              With the manufacturing base closer to home, there will be lesser need of transportation and import/export. The coal produced in, for example, Appalachia will go directly into a gasification plant and then excess electricity will be shipped with HVDC to the manufacturing base. The synthetics will of course be produced on-site and shipped by rail.

            • Excess electricity is electricity produced when it is not needed. It is a headache. It is pretty much just lost. In theory, there are things that can be done, but they require a huge amount of infrastructure to support.

    • Lidia17 says:

      Strange framing: “lose 60% of their benefit”. .when it was a temporary and arbitrary benefit which, if extrapolated, would represent $31k/year on top of states’ existing benefits. People I know that got it were “making” significantly more than what was coming in before they stopped working.

  5. Lastcall says:

    Infected minds more than infected bodies methinks.

    • DB says:

      Excellent, concise summary of the global situation. Infected with propaganda and nonsense.

  6. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    All of this extraordinary spending is pushing the national debt to astronomical levels. The gap between spending and revenue in June alone was $864 billion—nearly as large as the deficit for all of 2019. The
    Congressional Budget Office projects the 2020 deficit to be $3.7 trillion, and that’s without the current stimulus bill Congress is negotiating now. That national debt—the total amount Uncle Sam owes—is now $26.5 trillion, which is larger than the size of the entire U.S. economy
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/another-stimulus-bill-wont-jump-start-the-economy-154751033.html

    ANY WAGERS on HIGH the Deficit can go before the wheels fall off and a financial collapse happens?
    Meanwhile in the land of OZ on Capital Hill proceed as debt doesn’t matter…per Dick Cheney because Ronald Reagan proved it so!🤢🤑

    Congress is poised to pass another stimulus bill that could inject $1.5 trillion or more into the economy. It won’t be enough to trigger a recovery.
    “Almost nothing the federal government can do from an economic standpoint is going to make it feel like we’re progressing into a recovery,” Shai Akabas, director of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, says on the latest episode of the Yahoo Finance Electionomics podcast. “At best, unemployment is going to stay in the high single-digits, if not the double-digits, through November.”
    Most economists think another stimulus bill is necessary, to keep the unemployed above water, maintain a lifeline to struggling businesses, and help states and cities running way short on tax revenue. The problem is that no amount of stimulus spending will fully reopen businesses and coax consumers out of their homes as long as the coronavirus is rampant.

    Got Previous Metals. Food, Water, ECT…

    • Chrome Mags says:

      “Congressional Budget Office projects the 2020 deficit to be $3.7 trillion, and that’s without the current stimulus bill Congress is negotiating now.”

      Wow! I’ve always wondered what the limit is for the country to borrow, especially with the astronomical level of borrowing recently, and that doesn’t even include the FED’s slight of hand conjured up trillions (QE, without the FED calling it that anymore) injected into the markets via paying off Corporate bad debt. We are racking up one heck of a bill! Sky’s the limit until something breaks.

    • Minority Of One says:

      I agree Herbie. Mission accomplished (by Fauci, Gates and their hunta-colleagues). As Gail has mentioned several times before, this virus is not going away, ergo we will have lockdowns to some extent ad infinitum. The economy is well and truly screwed, everywhere.

    • covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “ANY WAGERS on HIGH the Deficit can go before the wheels fall off and a financial collapse happens?”

      yes, I bet it gets to $40 or $50 trillion before The Collapse.

  7. Free$solvesinjustice says:

    Well Norman while i disagree with much of your political leanings I must admit you forecast this talk of election postponement. It reflects quite poorly on Trump regardless of his motives. People have had a taste of MMT now. They will demand it. Those that actually produce goods and services- not so much.

    • covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      I agree that Norman forecast that talk.

      but it is all talk and no action.

      the election will be held on November 3.

      • covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        JHK today:

        “The result would be an election that can’t be resolved even by the Supreme Court. What will happen then?
        I’ll tell you how it goes: Donald Trump will stand aside and yield to the military, to some general or committee of generals, and the country will be under martial law until the election is sorted out or re-run. And by then, the election may be the least of our problems, with tens of millions out-of-work, out-of-business, penniless, homeless, and hungry. That’s when they’ll truly be selling postcards of the hanging, as the old song goes. Then comes America’s Bonaparte moment. Yes, things can get that weird.”

        if the tens of millions of mail ballots can’t be counted accurately, then who knows?

      • I’ve said lots about the don, and election postponement.
        Contradicted myself a few times too–because the whole mess veers this way and that, nobody knows what might happen. Certainly not me..

        The don is the symptom, not the cause.
        We chose to burn oil and tell ourselves that consumption could be infinite. That was what threw up Trump. (and his hangers-on)

        If Biden gets in, he will offer common sense, on climate change, healthcare and so on, but the neckless masses will scream ‘socialism’, despite the fact that unrestrained capitalism has wrecked the country.

        The demand will be for BAU, which neither Biden or anyone else will be able to provide.
        So the overall slide will be ‘downhill’, and it will be seen as a problem that can be solved by political means. Another change of leader.

        The USA engaged itself in the fantasy of democracy for 200 years. It hasn’t worked.

        Time for something different. When Biden’s methods are seen not to work, it will be time to install another nutcase.

        Though It might just be that social collapse will come on Biden’s watch, he won’t be able to anything about it. The consensus of opinion has always been ‘mid 2020s’—I’ve said that lots of times, as have others.
        But the seeds of collapse were sown 100 years ago.

        So dispense with elections and install a dictator

        My ultimate forecast is that the USA will secede into several nation-states, for no better reason than it is too big to hold together without the cheap energy that created it.

        And each of them will spawn a petty dictator, grabbing what he can for himself and his clan—just like the present incumbent.

        • I think a big question is, “How long can the United States remain united?” We know that political systems tend to fall apart/be overthrown/lose wars as wage disparity becomes too big an issue. When the United States becomes less united, we can expect multiple top level governments, each with their own leader and their own currency.

          There is a similar question regarding the European Union and the government of China.

          • Ed says:

            Gail, how about India?

            • I suppose it is in a similar situation. It has had huge debt problems recently, and its electricity is always a problem.

              Also, India has multiple languages in different parts of the country. (China does as well, but a common written language binds most people together. Inner Mongolia seems to be one exception, with its vertically written language.)

              India tries to teach multiple languages in its schools, but it is difficult to do well, because there is only so much teaching time available and the teachers aren’t necessarily fluent in the various languages. There are even different alphabets for some of the languages.

          • Dennis L. says:

            A thought on the US separating. There is a huge and powerful vested interest in it remaining together – pensions of federal legislatures and high federal officials.
            Dennis L.

            • Robert Firth says:

              Dennis, I am not so sure. The accumulated phantom wealth of the “vested interests” is an excellent reason to liquidate them. And as for being powerful: they are powerful only as long as they are believed to be. The ancien regime in France seemed very powerful, until suddenly it wasn’t.

        • Ed says:

          Norman, “The Nine Nations of North America” is still a good book.

          • Norman Pagett says:

            thanks

            I hadn’t picked up on that book will check it out

            Always reassuring to know that others think the same as me

          • This is a map of the Nine Nations of North America. It looks fairly accurate.

            https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d2/Ninenations.PNG

            I live in Atlanta, which is viewed as the capital of Dixie. Dixie has relatively more black citizens than other parts of the US. Atlanta is a transportation center, among other things.

            The Empty quarter is where a lot of the “renewable energy” is generated. Also, in the Breadbasket. But this electricity needs to be transported long distance to get to population centers. There are separate “Eastern” and “Western” electric grids. Also, a Texas Grid.

            • North America will not devolve quietly into peaceful regional nation-states

              wars of denial are inevitable, as ethno/political/god groups seek to prove their righteousness, while trying to grab sufficient energy resources to keep themselves alive.

              each region will possess what another must have, which was the driving force behind the European wars of the last 2000 years.
              The USA is now in the situation where the eternal rolling conflicts of Europe are taking root across what is currently America.
              They are the same peoples.
              Every warring nation in Europe was comforted by having god on their side.

              As the USA falls apart, every combatant will have the same conviction, and be prepared to kill to prove it.

              The American nation is declaring war on itself, now there isn’t enough to go round.
              The BLM movement is effectively an uprising because of that.

              the top 0.1% have creamed off the best of what there is, leaving the poor to make do with what’s left.
              the Senate has approved $750bn military spending, while millions are facing eviction and food shortages.

              That is what I mean by a nation declaring war on itself.
              Consuming scarce energy in order to make things that will ultimately be destroyed, and pay wages for ultimately doing nothing.
              And of course to enrich weapons makers while people starve.
              Making wartoys involves fewer and fewer people now. Much is automated. So the govt is paying robots instead of people.

              (That’s called diversion of resources)

              as the USA devolves into its nation states, it seems inevitable that its borders will be fluid and bloody. There is already an inclination to shoot at each other with very little provocation.

              Suppose that was elevated to border-legitimacy? Already there have been self-elected vigilante groups along the Mexican border. They will eagerly participate in other enterprises.

            • I agree that North America won’t devolve peacefully into regional nation-states. Energy resources are scattered around, for one thing. There will be too many people to support without today’s level of imports.

            • Ed says:

              Hydro Quebec is a tempting prize.

        • hkeithhenson says:

          > The don is the symptom, not the cause.

          Yes. The cause is economic, the response is due to psychological traits that were selected in the stone age.

          Lots of people reject that they have any such psychological traits at all. A relatively easy to understand concept is https://en.citizendium.org/wiki/Capture-bonding Ever wondered where fraternity hazing or battered wife syndrome came from?

          I can’t fault people for not wanting to know about the evolved origins of humans. I find it depressing.

          • Norman Pagett says:

            one of my favourite movies is Inherit the Wind

            where Tracy is cross examining Brady

            “4004 BC—etc etc—at 9am—would that be Eastern standard time or mountain time?’.

            Great stuff!!

            Anybody who hasn’t seen it should google it and watch that clip

            • hkeithhenson says:

              > “4004 BC—etc etc—at 9am—would that be Eastern standard time or mountain time?’.

              Wherever it was banker’s hours. Nobody would expect God to follow workman hours. 🙂

            • Robert Firth says:

              Silly question. As everyone knows, there were no time zones in 4004 BC. The Earth was still flat.

          • Norman Pagett says:

            there is a definite evolutionary link back to where captured females had the choice of becoming a breeder or breakfast

            • hkeithhenson says:

              > there is a definite evolutionary link back to where captured females had the choice of becoming a breeder or breakfast

              Excellent. So you are one of the people who can account for the otherwise hard to understand behavior of Patty Hearst and Elizabeth Smart.

              The genetic model for how the psychological traits leading to wars were selected is more complicated. That model needs both Hamilton’s rule and the human trait of taking the young women of a defeated tribe as booty. Without going into detail, from the viewpoint of genes, the copies in the daughters of the defeated (and killed) warriors limit the downside (to genes) of losing a war. It was a fairly large selection advantage, 37% over half the tribe dying from starvation.

              It turned out that if a tribe went to war *without* facing 50% starvation that the selection was even stronger against going to war.

            • Norman Pagett says:

              in trying to mentally deal with the behaviour patterns of humankind, you may have noticed that i generally try to use a collective context rather than try to deal with individuals.

              Hence I wouldn’t attempt to categorise Patty Hearst, or anyone else,

              Just seems to me that females were always prized trophies after battles, so over 000s of years there would seem to have been an evolutionary trait towards survival, so those who chose to serve breakfast (etc) to their captors passed their traits on.

              those who preferred to be breakfast didn’t.

              I doubt if that deterred said female from tipping breakfast over her captor’s head from time to time, once she’d taken over as boss. (twas ever thus)

              We all possess hundreds of characteristics that make us what we are. My observation is not to denigrate females in the slightest. Just saying the way things have evolved.

            • hkeithhenson says:

              > in trying to mentally deal with the behaviour patterns of humankind, you may have noticed that i generally try to use a collective context rather than try to deal with individuals.

              > Hence I wouldn’t attempt to categorise Patty Hearst, or anyone else,

              Capture-bonding is a psychological trait that only applies to individuals. It was so intense and went on so long that the trait is close to universal in humans. Applies to males as well as females, though the selection happened almost exclusively in females. (Males were normally just killed.) I seldom quote the Bible, but there is a graphic account in the Book of Numbers, The Holy Bible, King James Version Chapter 31. verses 7-18.

              7: They warred against Mid’ian, as the LORD commanded Moses, and slew every male.
              8: They slew the kings of Mid’ian with the rest of their slain, Evi, Rekem, Zur,Hur, and Reba, the five kings of Mid’ian; and they also slew Balaam theson of Be’or with the sword.
              9: And the people of Israel took captive the women of Mid’ian and their little ones; and they took as booty all their cattle, their flocks, and all their goods.
              10:
              All their cities in the places where they dwelt, and all their encampments,they burned with fire,
              11:
              and took all the spoil and all the booty, both of man and of beast
              12:
              Then they brought the captives and the booty and the spoil to Moses, and to Elea’zar the priest, and to the congregation of the people of Israel, at the camp on the plains of Moab by the Jordan at Jericho.
              13:
              Moses, and Elea’zar the priest, and all the leaders of the congregation, went forth to meet them outside the camp.
              14:
              And Moses was angry with the officers of the army, the commanders of thousands and the commanders of hundreds, who had come from service in the war.
              15:
              Moses said to them, “Have you let all the women live?”
              16:
              Behold, these caused the people of Israel, by the counsel of Balaam, to act treacherously against the LORD in the matter of Pe’or, and so the plague came among the congregation of the LORD.
              17:
              Now therefore, kill every male among the little ones, and kill every woman who has known man by lying with him.
              18:
              But all the young girls who have not known man by lying with him, keep alive for yourselves.

              > Just seems to me that females were always prized trophies after battles, so over 000s of years there would seem to have been an evolutionary trait towards survival, so those who chose to serve breakfast (etc) to their captors passed their traits on.

              > those who preferred to be breakfast didn’t.

              Exactly.

              After figuring this out (some 15 years after John Tooby) I tried to account for a number of hard to understand human behaviors as partial activation of the capture-bonding mechanisms. I suspect that how to turn it on in a captive is also an evolved psychological trait. Thus army basic training (the bonding aspects) and fraternity hazing (bonding). I make a case that battered wife syndrome, as well as SMBD, are due to partial activation of the capture-bonding psychological mechanisms. These speculations are far less obvious than the basic trait, but until someone comes along with a better speculation, they seem to be a reasonable way to account for otherwise hard to understand human behavior.

              > I doubt if that deterred said female from tipping breakfast over her captor’s head from time to time, once she’d taken over as boss. (twas ever thus)

              > We all possess hundreds of characteristics that make us what we are. My observation is not to denigrate females in the slightest.

              It’s a trait in males as well even though the selection happened in females

              > Just saying the way things have evolved.

              Right.

              I don’t know how many of the readers of OFW are following this discussion, but you seem to have a solid grasp of the evolutionary selection process that made humans what they are. At least for this trait. The selection of the traits that lead to war is more complicated.

            • The book “Against the Grain” by James C. Scott makes the observation that male slaves were often kept to work on projects that were too physically demanding for men to volunteer for them. This would be heavy labor in mines, making roads, building bridges and the like. Mortality rates would be high.

              Women were kept as wives and household slaves, if I remember correctly. Scott thought that the death rate in childbirth was high enough that the population of young women needed to be replenished with young women gathered through conquest. Of course, inbreeding would be a problem if a population did not get some genetic diversity from outside. Adding captive women to the gene pool helped solve this problem.

              Young women in many countries have lived with marriages arranged by their parents. Being brought into a foreign land and taken into the home of an unknown man would not be all that different. Women (in some places, at least) were considered more or less like property. They we expected to do what they were told to do. If they couldn’t have children, some stories in the Bible indicate that this was a reason for divorce.

            • hkeithhenson says:

              > The book “Against the Grain” by James C. Scott makes the observation that male slaves were often kept to work on projects that were too physically demanding for men to volunteer for them. This would be heavy labor in mines, making roads, building bridges and the like. Mortality rates would be high.

              My focus on the evolution of human psychological characteristics has mostly been in the stone age, hunter-gatherers. When you start talking roads and bridges it is both late and really complicated to figure out what was selected.

              Between the rise of agriculture and the rise of states, there was a long period where the males were seriously culled. It seems modern humans descended from those groups have about 17 times as many female ancestors as they do male ancestors. Some researchers from Stanford figured that the male lines were killing each other off.

              It’s really complicated and there is not much data. On the other hand, Gregory Clark has researched probated wills in the UK from around 1150 to 1800. Those show serious selection for the traits that make people well off.

              My other interest is in the singularity and what may come after.

            • I am not sure that the males would need to kill each other off to get this effect. If the women were most attracted to the “alpha male,” or if there were customs that allowed the alpha male to have multiple wives/concubines, this effect would take place. Many of us have read the story of Solomon and all of his wives and concubines. Peter Turchin remarks in Secular Cycles that limiting the number of wives a man can have, has the tendency to limit population. Without such a limit, the rich men tend to father a lot of children, with many different wives. The poor men have a hard time affording any wives.

              Back in hunter-gatherer times, most researchers think that there was more equality, so this shouldn’t happen. But I don’t know.

            • Norman Pagett says:

              the alpha hunter gatherer would always attract the best breeding female—the ‘pride of lions’ if you like, because the female is conditioned to recognise the male who was most likely to give her offspring the best chance of survival

              crude and brutal, but that’s what nature is

              equality was never an issue

            • i try to strip concepts to single-sentence basics wherever possible.

              The female of our species is generally smarter than the male, as a survival trait from prehistoric times. Ignore the lady’s opinion at your (toldya so) peril.

              the female was always left with little ones to feed while knuckle dragging hubby went off and got himself eaten by something bigger and hungrier.

              the result of that?

              The female had to find high protein food that couldn’t run away. She couldn’t chase food and look after kids at the same time.
              best food: Shellfish. Which by chance is also best for brain function/growth.

              But shellfish needs a tool to get at it

              So the lady invents tools.

              Or make a fire in a clay hollow somewhere,
              After a while, the lady (sitting around waiting for hubby to get back) notices that water collects in the hollow after the fire has gone out,
              Digs out the hollow, finds clay has fired hard.

              Lady invents pottery.

              she wants to keep the kids warm.
              works out how to use a bone needle to stitch furs together.

              Food, –water –Warmth

              There you have the three pre requisites for the much of the progress of civilisation.

              ********

              Same happens now. Men go off and get themselves killed in the name of some god or other, while the women stay home and pick up the pieces and survive.

            • Kowalainen says:

              Not quite. The rabble went on to fight “wars”. The leftovers so to speak. The dividing line is among the descendants of the rulers with less capable intellect that with time turned into rabble and on the other side of the line is the artisans, black smiths, mill owners/operators/book keepers, scholars, skilled carpenters, artists, etc. Today commonly thought as the “bourgeoisie”. Selection in this group is ruthless. The nerd, lightly autistic, “gene” eventually went on to totally dominate every instance of where value and productivity is created.

              Now the show is being run by the offspring from the artisans of the past. Well, assisted by super computation and game theory. The occasional smart ass “elder” descendant knew where this was heading and put the money on a winning proposition. Gotta have a blood hound capability to catch the whiff of where the technological omnipotence lies.

              It unfolds in real time, the power transfer is an absolutely stunning development.

            • hkeithhenson says:

              > Now the show is being run by the offspring from the artisans of the past.

              It sounds like you might appreciate this article as it is highly supportive of your thoughts.

              http://faculty.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/gclark/papers/Capitalism%20Genes.pdf

            • ElbowWilham says:

              @norman: men having higher average iq then women after puberty. Notice any grand master chess players that are women?

              Women hardly invent anything at all. The few women in enters are celebrated far above their accomplishments, because there are so few of them.

              I have spent time in 3rd world fishing villages. The men were still the ones doing the fishing and gathering the shellfish.

              Just adding another perspective.

            • Lidia17 says:

              Norm, women now seem to be among the most corrosive modern social elements.

            • Kowalainen says:

              “Norm, women now seem to be among the most corrosive modern social elements.”

              No, women are subject to relentless social engineering. The manufactured gender specific of useful consumerism. The smart ones despise the status and prestige signalling, specially on the absurd ‘social media’ platforms.

            • observing as a mere make, in general terms it seems to me that men do most of the aggravation—from wars to football crowds –while women stay home and clear up the mess

              true—women by and large do not figure in the halls of great invention and creativity, though there are great exceptions of course.

              but those who who rush to point out the lack of female creative input to the progress of humankind should stop and check their blind spot in that respect.

              it’s easy to find it:

              Stand in front of a mirror (unclothed) and ask yourself what your navel is for.

            • Kowalainen says:

              @hkeithhenson, thanks, Ill read it.

            • hkeithhenson says:

              > thanks, Ill read it.

              It’s short, one page. If you have any suggestions to make it better, I am working to recover loss access and probably can fix it. It’s been up for a long time.

            • Kowalainen says:

              @hkeithhenson, I speculate that the selection process was well established and partially finalized at before the ice age. The final nail in the coffin was the invention/(re)discovery of agriculture and then of course the brits discovered FF’s and with that IC came along and further crystalized the process.

              However, the Flynn effect basically states that the more advanced a society become, then, in parallel all people collectively smarten up. In fact, there is few species with as similar genome as homo sapiens sapiens. Now is that a ruthless selection or what? Borderline inbreeding for certain traits. Any woman given the opportunity to “marry up” in social status will likely do it, for good reason. Yes, it sucks to be a lowly male sometimes, but victimhood isn’t a thing of a proper alpha male. It is why free education and equal opportunity is such an important concept.

              I think the correct perspective is to view the current era “bourgeoisie” as the spearhead with the rest of mankind along for a ride. At least it is how I like to view it, on a positive note. The bourgeoisie is also quite a vague concept, more like a genetic melting pot of which genes are “hot” today.

            • hkeithhenson says:

              > @hkeithhenson, I speculate that the selection process was well established and partially finalized at before the ice age.

              I agree, but it has been a continuous process. The people who dig into ancient DNA find wave after wave of peoples coming out of the East and replacing the European population.

              > The final nail in the coffin was the invention/(re)discovery of agriculture

              From what we see in the collapse of Y, we are descended from 1/17 of the males around when agriculture started so there was a lot of room for selection.

              > and then of course the brits discovered FF’s

              Clark thinks that the selection for the traits leading to wealth ended about 1800. Beyond that point, the improved food supply meant that fewer of the children of the pood starved and the wealthy started using birth control to limit the number of children they had.

              > and with that IC came along and further crystalized the process.

              It certainly caused the “great divergence” where some of the world become much more wealthy and the rest stayed in a Malthusian state (poor).

              > However, the Flynn effect basically states that the more advanced a society become, then, in parallel all people collectively smarten up. In fact, there is few species with as similar genome as homo sapiens sapiens. Now is that a ruthless selection or what?

              Why are people as smart as they are and not smarter? If you consider any trait of any animal, it falls on a bell curve. If the center of the curve does not change over time, that means that those on both ends of the curve are not reproducing as well as those in the center. If you take intelligence as an example, the very low and very high are not reproducing as well as those closer to the center of the distribution. It is also hard to sort out other historical effects. The addition of iodine to salt in the US is supposed to have added 7-8 IQ points to the whole population.

              The subject is really complicated.

            • Kowalainen says:

              @hkeithhenson, remember this:

              https://mmstudies.com/scholars/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/02/1024484-300×300.png

              Staring blindly at the Y-chromosome is a huge omission.

              It is the female that stipulates the trials and tribulations of the males.

              Well, apparently you agree with me with regards as to the bourgeoise being the improver of average cognitive abilities. The artisanry and intelligentsia figured out that adding antiseptics to the water will reduce disease spread. And of course health improved and with it general intelligence.

              Now what do you think the internet has done so far to improve the average ability for abstract thought?

              Not to mention video games and music?

              I rest my case.

        • Free$solvesinjustice says:

          Biden will return the USA to the path of producing nothing and consuming Chinese goods. Coincidentally making himself and his son much richer with their millions of Chinese investments. At the same time massively increasing government debt. This path along with wanting war with Russia is the final steps in abuse of US dollar hegemony.
          Productivity, the ability to produce goods and services and a currency based on it is the first defense against tyranny. It puts the power in the hands of the people. The labels of communism capitalism this and that mean very little. They are propaganda tools. What matters is that people have a way of making a living that is honest and real.
          Whatever you label the democrats they are not good people. Their santimonius propaganda is not truthful. Their motives are only of power. They incite they do not unite.
          The current propaganda in regards to black citizens is a good example. The terrible violence of the black ghettos in democrat citys and a function of democrat policies. Instead of enabling blacks they institutionalize them with welfare. I grew up in one by the way.
          Until we understand that the path to peace and harmony with all brothers and sisters lies with accountability regardless of race or gender we are lost.
          Martin Luther kings great words I hope for a day where people are judged by their actions not their color is not worked towards by the ideas of white privilege etcetera. The democrats need supposed injustice to facilitate their power grab. They dont care about peace and harmony. Au contraire they need and want class differentiation and conflict.
          Trump is not my dream president. Ron Paul would be my dream president. A guy that has delivered hundreds of babies in the real world. What Biden stands for is a lie. What trump stands for is also a lie. The trump lie is far less repugnant to me. What we have witnessed is incredible. Four years of condeming trump as a racist bigot traitor . FROM DAY ONE. Literally.
          Seperation is not possible. The divide is largely urban vs rural not state vs state. Separation is also not allowed. Its been tried before if I remember correctly.
          Biden and his crowd are about as common sense as nasty drunk. They know only one thing to condemn others. I find trumps flaws which are numerous to be nothing in comparison. If the democrats could run a fair campaign based on respect and valuing harmony in our society i could look at their policies. Their actions show their disdain for harmony , their greed for power, and their despicable character.

          • you’ve missed the point entirely–though interesting to read.

            the problem is not poltical

            the problem is the availabilty of cheap surplus energy and the means by which it is put to use

            In the 20th c that was no problem

            in the 21st c that is our insoluble problem

            Billions of people are convinced they can vote prosperity into office. They can’t and never will

            • hkeithhenson says:

              > the problem is the availability of cheap surplus energy

              I don’t understand “surplus” in this context. Would just “cheap energy” suffice?

              > and the means by which it is put to use

              Could you give a couple of examples? I don’t see any lack of machines, buildings, fertilizer plants, refineries, etc. to use energy.

              > In the 20th c that was no problem

              Ah . . . I think a case can be made that Germany lost WWII to the US partly on the basis of not having as much energy available. The US had lots of oil, the Germans were reduced to making liquid fuels out of coal.

              > in the 21st c that is our insoluble problem

              There are problems such as time travel into the past and faster than light travel which are probably not possible to solve.

              But for energy, we need to agree on what would be a solution before saying it can’t be solved. This engineering method is called “design to cost” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Design-to-cost or my version, https://htyp.org/design_to_cost which has been cluttered up with various side issues over the years.

              Let’s put numbers on it. Certainly, there is no lack of sunlight, the whole Earth intercepts a tiny fraction of the Sun’s output. It costs to collect it either on the ground or out in space, so how little would it have to cost for a particular proposal to be considered a solution?

              Energy cost is usually in cents per kWh. For hydrocarbon fuels, the US people see the cost at the pump as dollars per gallon. There is around 40 kWh in a (US) gallon of gasoline so we can use either one.

              Please state the cost ($/gallon or cents per kWh) where you would consider a proposal to be a solution.

              You may be right and the problem really has no solution, at least none that are currently within the state of the engineering art.

            • clarifying the point of surplus energy and cheap surplus energy—

              a poor man might gather firewood, and use it to heat his home and cook his food etc.
              his energy input to gather ‘cheap’ energy might take a lot of time.
              the energy is cheap but quickly consumed to provide ‘essential’ means of existence and survival.

              he also walks everywhere.

              on the other hand, the rich man can command resources to utilise ‘surplus’ energy in wood to construct a carriage, and all its trappings, use the surplus energy from the land to feed horses to pull the carriage.

              The rich man commands the use of ‘surplus’ energy and rides everywhere. The poor man doesn’t.

              It applies in every era:

              I can ‘command’ the use of a seat in an aircraft if I want to. My energy availability is both cheap (I have enough to live on) and ‘surplus’ (I can go where I want if I feel so inclined, within sensible reason) I don’t but that is my personal choice.
              I ‘command’ the use of my ‘personal carriage’ because I have energy available that is both cheap and surplus.
              My g-grandfather walked everywhere, I can move at 100mph if I feel stupid today.

              My nice ‘personal carriage’ is in fact the product of a century or two of personal enterprise of my forebears. I and my siblings and children got lucky in other words.
              Our homes are built and filled with the products of cheap surplus energy.—our ‘external machines’ were built (and consume) ultimately for that purpose. (ie to make our lives easier) And make it easier to consume ‘surpluses’.

              Sunlight alone will not do that. Meaningful Sun-energy isn’t fungible without an intermediary.

              The only other purpose they are used for is killing each other. Which is the alternative way of consuming surpluses. Shooting rockets off earth is doing the same thing. We pretend it isn’t.

              A man reduced to sleeping on a park bench isn’t in that situation.. His personal choice has been removed by lack of surplus energy. He ‘exists’ and no more. He is likely to die early.

              ****************

              The 20th c saw an explosion of humankind who live much as I do.—or aspire to.

              But to do that consumed the global ‘surplus energy’ available to all of us. I live to excess in world terms. This expensive mac computer is unnecessary ‘excess’. But I love it.

              We have now entered the 21st c where energy surpluses are in decline. (we burned it all)
              We delude ourselves otherwise. But we must continually consume surpluses to give ourselves employment and provide wages. That is now the conundrum of our existence. This is why UBI cannot work.

              Effectively, we demand ever-increasing wages in order to acquire ever-decreasing surpluses, .

              Politicians promise that this can go on forever. The laws of physics say it can’t.

              This is why chasing space-energy won’t work.

              To get hold of mars stuff requires declining surplus earth energy, not mathematical theories and computer graphics.
              Your academic credentials far exceed mine Keith, but to quote:

              ///”Design to cost is a management strategy and supporting methodologies to achieve an affordable product by treating target cost as an independent design parameter that needs to be achieved during the development of a product.///

              Forgive my saying so–but that is gobbledegook

              This post is too long already, without dissecting that.

            • hkeithhenson says:

              Your writing above this point I could not parse.

              > Sunlight alone will not do that. Meaningful Sun-energy isn’t fungible without an intermediary.

              Such as using ridiculously cheap solar electric power to make synthetic fuel?

              This has been analyzed for years. The synthetic fuel looks like it would cost no more than we currently pay for ones made from natural oil and it is carbon neutral.

              > Your academic credentials far exceed mine Keith, but to quote:

              ///”Design to cost is a management strategy and supporting methodologies to achieve an affordable product by treating target cost as an independent design parameter that needs to be achieved during the development of a product.///

              It isn’t my words, I pulled it off here. http://www.npd-solutions.com/dtc.html That kind of engineering management was not part of my education but it seems fairly straightforward. It’s just something you keep in mind that cost has to be considered for a product such as power satellites.

              The last study Boeing did before they fired everyone working on power satellites came in at $1.80 cents per kWh. If you know anything about the cost of energy, you know that cost is a non-starter. The target is to undercut coal at perhaps 4-5 cents a kWh with 3 cents per kWh power from space or maybe even less expensive ground solar.

              > Forgive my saying so–but that is gobbledegook

              The Wikipedia article https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Design-to-cost says about the same thing. It is that any easier to grok? If it isn’t, we can discuss making it more understandable and I can edit a new version into the Wikipedia article.

            • Kowalainen says:

              It’s not about “surplus “energy it is all about the diminishing marginal utility of oil.

              Most oil is being used to pump additional oil and to sustain the behemoth. Growth is over.

              Well, ok, let’s say “surplus” on second thought. 🙂

            • The oil is really being used in a wider way that allows oil to be extracted. It is not that it is being used directly in extraction. For example, oil is what enables the world to grow grain crops and the Middle East to imports the grain to feed the high populations of their countries. With low oil prices, this ability is starting to erode. We can see this especially in marginal countries such as Nigeria and Lebanon.

              The belief that one can count surplus energy of oil as it is pumped out of the ground, isn’t quite right, as far as I can see. It is the overall energy requirements of the economy that matter. The energy used in making oil varies with the type of extraction. It can be coal that is made into electricity (China), or natural gas (US). Oil is a high cost type of energy. Oil is not the first choice of type of energy to be used for extraction, but may be used in some places. Prof. Charles Hall has an EROEI theory that is popular among peak oilers. It is not exactly right, in my opinion.

            • Kowalainen says:

              A curtailment of resource usage is of necessity until the situation improves, that is if that ever will happen. Since the ‘green energy’, except for hydro and wind in its proximity, geothermal as well, is nothing but a natgas racket of epic proportions, and with nuclear as a non renewable stopgap resource. Some constraints must be put in place.

              Growth will continue along the path where it is immutable. That is in technology. The society will evolve into a low-consumption high-tech technocracy. The latter part is already a reality and now the former is shaping up.

              As a dear friend of mine observed, whatever “they” put onto the agenda is nothing but destruction. Rampant feminism – the destruction of legitimate feminism. Glowball warmongering – the destruction of ecosystems and massive pollution. Multiculturalism – the destruction of culture and ethnicity. Mass immigration – the destruction of post-industrial countries.

              Yes, it is about time to realize that mankind is nothing but a rapacious primate and change that to something of grandeur and style. Once that is sorted out we’ll take it to the stars in no time. Gaia is getting mighty tired of the monkey business and letting it “rain” in China. Either conform with the wishes of competitive collaboration or something with some more “heft” will be coming plunging down towards earth.

            • louploup2 says:

              “The society will evolve into a low-consumption high-tech technocracy. The latter part is already a reality and now the former is shaping up.”

              How is “low-consumption” shaping up while “high-tech” continues? IOW, how can you power “high-tech” with “low-consumption”?

            • Norman Pagett says:

              you’ve obviosly not been reading “Fairy Story Times” lately

              Everybody is being given a free lamp to rub

              so anytime we need anything—we rub the ‘low tech’ lamp, and get whatever ‘high tech’ we wish for

            • Kowalainen says:

              IOW, how can you power “high-tech” with “low-consumption”?

              Here is a gedankenexperiment. Lets set Ghawar ablaze and burn a copious amount of energy. Now, that is the ultimate useless consumption of a finite resource. Was anything of use accomplished. No, of course not. Draw your own analogies from here.

              Now ponder upon this: Is it possible for a fully renewable resource with an EROEI of more than 100:1 to be self sustaining? Obviously it is. No matter how you do your calculation the energy produce will eventually surpass the expenditure of construction, block upgrades, maintenance and disposal.

              Technology marches relentlessly onward. The irrelevance of the rapacious monkey inches first forward, then by leaps and bounds. And now, yes, the cliff off irrelevance is clearly visible in the horizon and “we” are traveling at the speed of sound, with a constant third derivative of the distance formula.

              https://youtu.be/7Pq-S557XQU

          • Ed says:

            Yes, the politicians are ruthless willing to murder to win.

  8. Tim Groves says:

    Unlike Duncan, I don’t claim to know much about virology. But I know someone who does—Dr. Mercola, who writes that the Common Cold Can Trigger a Positive COVID-19 Antibody Test:

    Right now, there are three types of COVID-19 tests:

    Molecular — Also known as a PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test, this test detects whether genetic material of the virus is present in the sample collected from your throat or sputum (the back of your sinuses)
    Antigen — This test, sometimes referred to as “rapid test,” detects viral proteins
    Antibody — Also known as a serology test, it detects the presence of antibodies in your blood
    The first two, molecular and antigen, are so-called “viral tests” that detect active infections, whereas the antibody test will tell you if you’ve developed antibodies in response to a previous coronavirus infection. It typically takes your body one to three weeks after an infection clears to start making antibodies against the virus in question.

    Each of these COVID-19 tests have their issues and controversies. The problem with antibody testing is that there are seven different coronaviruses known to cause respiratory illness in humans.2 Four of them cause symptoms associated with the common cold:

    229E
    NL63
    OC43
    HKU1
    In addition to the common cold, OC43 and HKU1 — two of the most commonly encountered betacoronaviruses3 — are also known to cause bronchitis, acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and pneumonia in all age groups.4 The other three human coronaviruses — which are capable of causing more serious respiratory illness — are:

    SARS-CoV
    MERS-CoV
    SARS-CoV-2
    The tricky part is that the antibodies created by these different coronaviruses appear very similar, and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention admits recovering from the common cold can trigger a positive antibody test for COVID-19, even if you were never infected with SARS-CoV-2 specifically.

    More here;
    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/07/joseph-mercola/common-cold-may-trigger-positive-covid-19-antibody-test/

    • Antibody tests seem to have a high false-positive rate in general. They are not yet recommended for telling whether an individual person has had COVID-19.

  9. “The mystery of why some people keep testing positive for covid-19
    “We’re still learning about how long it lasts inside the body.”

    https://elemental.medium.com/amp/p/3c0c11a6bd10

    • I can’t bring up the article for some reason right now.

      It is my understanding that there is a real question of what the “cutoff” for a positive test should be. Apparently, there is a magnification factor that needs to be applied to figure out whether the virus can be seen. The higher the number, the lower the virus load. A cutoff about 35 seems to be appropriate, but we don’t know for sure. Test results cut off a different levels, but generally use a higher magnification level than 35. Thus, they may tend to give false positives after the illness is no longer transmissible. But we are not really certain.

      • Duncan Idaho says:

        It is a little lower number—
        Around 25 for infection transfer.
        35 is a very low viral load.
        PCR for testing is overkill.

        • May Hem says:

          and it is very possible that many test kits are defective.

          • Duncan Idaho says:

            PCR kits are incredibly reliable.

            But we don’t need them to be that accurate.
            A simple test, inexpensive, and done by the person alone is what is needed.
            If you are able to transmit, you can be easily tested.
            If you have the intention span, here is a good explanation:
            TWiV 640: Test often, fast turnaround, with Michael Mina
            https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-640/

            • When I went to TWiV 640, the notes gave a link to this paper about sensitivity. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7314112/pdf/ciaa619.pdf

              To Interpret the SARS-CoV-2 Test, Consider the Cycle Threshold Value
              Michael R Tom and Michael J Mina

              From my reading of the paper, they are arguing that a cutoff of 40 cycles for a negative test rest is too high. Instead, the cutoff should be >34.

              You mentioned earlier that perhaps the threshold should be as low as 25. It sounds like there is a lot of work to be done in this regard. We are very good at finding tiny pieces if what used to be viable virus, but good at telling whether the virus can still transmit to another person. There is a high cost associated with not knowing. Isolating people who don’t need to be isolated is expensive. If they can’t work online, they likely cannot go back to work, for example. On the other hand, putting people who are really infecious in a nursing home is a recipe for disaster.

      • Lidia17 says:

        Kary Mullis: “The vice of the PCR is that it can find the biochemical equivalent of the needle in the haystack. Viral fragments that are present only in minute quantities can be amplified and identified, but this tells us nothing about whether replicating virus is present in sufficient quantities to do harm.”

        (85.) Thomas, C., Mullis, K. B., Ellison, B. J., and Johnson, P. 1993. Why there is still an HIV controversy. Unpublished manuscript.
        https://www.thefreelibrary.com/Genetic+determinism+as+a+failing+paradigm+in+biology+and+medicine%3a…-a0104681129

        [I had come across this quote elsewhere, but this was the closest I got to the source with limited searching.]

        • Duncan Idaho says:

          Yep—
          As few as 80 particles—
          You need millions to be able to transmit.

  10. Harry McGibbs says:

    “COVID-19 has led to a global economic slowdown that is affecting all four pillars of food security—availability, access, utilization, and stability—according to a new article from researchers at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), published in the journal Science.”

    https://phys.org/news/2020-07-economic-food-chain-disruptions-endanger.html

  11. Harry McGibbs says:

    “This unconscionable withdrawal of support [for the unemployed] comes as the federal eviction moratorium on federally backed properties has expired, while a number of state and local eviction moratoriums are set to expire soon.

    “These two expirations are threatening to collide and make millions of people homeless in the middle of a global pandemic.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/30/millions-of-americans-risk-homelessness-if-the-600-unemployment-benefit-ends

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “At a congressional hearing this month, extremism researcher J.J. MacNab delivered a warning: “There is a potential street war brewing.”

      “MacNab cited the dangerous mix of armed factions squaring off at protests around the United States.”

      https://www.npr.org/2020/07/30/896770081/analysts-say-armed-groups-at-protests-raise-specter-of-a-street-war

      • Kim says:

        The media. They report it to program it. It is an old trick. So far I have seen only one side of extremism – the left – “squaring off” in the streets, and that is against the law and normal people.

        • Harry McGibbs says:

          “…normal people.” That is a phrase to conjure with, lol.

          In 2020 people seem to be reactive, polarised and generally on the look out for things to be morally outraged about.

          And I am not speaking from some position of serene detachment – much as I resist the urge to get sucked in I can feel the pull of it. The collective unconscious is positively roiling.

          • Xabier says:

            As Ghandi might have said, instead of his rather cheap shot at Western Civillisation:

            ‘Normal people? What a good idea, we should try it sometime.’

            I try to imitate my dog, who doesn’t give a damn about any of it.

            • Harry McGibbs says:

              Pets can be great sanity-restorers in that regard. I recall Eckhart Tolle saying, “I have lived with several Zen masters — all of them cats.”

      • Robert Firth says:

        “J.J. MacNab is one of the nation’s leading experts on sovereign citizens, tax protesters, U.S. paramilitary militia groups, and related anti-government extremist organisations.”

        In other words, she is a rabid left wing totalitarian hater of freedom and the US Constitution. Preparing the ground for the coming tyranny.

      • JesseJames says:

        “extremism researcher J.J. MacNab“

        Change to right wing hyped up extremism …left wing extemism ignored…researcher J.J. MacNab”

        Fixed it for you Harry

    • Loss of homes and inability to afford food are the two big issues.

  12. Harry McGibbs says:

    “It is fitting that as I write this I am guided only by the light from my screen and a candle, which I have placed not far from my feet. Power outages have long been a constant in Lebanon.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/30/candlelight-lebanon-economic-crisis-social-catastrophe

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “The controversy over the Lebanese central bank’s decision to record seigniorage as an asset in its crisis-torn balance sheet is no parochial matter. Across the world, strange things are happening to this important source of income for central banks and finance ministries.

      “Described as the profit made from printing money, seigniorage is the difference between the amount central banks receive on issuing money and the much lower cost of producing it…”

      https://www.ft.com/content/daac9683-9148-4e85-9d05-6da1ea315721

      • Robert Firth says:

        It seems the Lebanese banks have never heard of Gresham’s Law. This will end badly, just as it did for the Emperor Diocletian.

        • Lidia17 says:

          Wasn’t Lebanon once a rich banking center.. kind of the Switzerland of the ME? Maybe I’m remembering badly.

          • Harry McGibbs says:

            No, you are right – it was the Dubai of its day back in the 50’s and 60’s. Then civil war broke out in the 70’s and that was that.

            Strange to think, too, that Venezuela was the wealthiest nation in Latin America up until the 80’s.

          • Robert Firth says:

            Lidia, my memory accords with yours. Lebanon was a peaceful, prosperous country. Then came five Israeli invasions between 1978 and 2006, supposedly to dispose of “terrorists”, but mostly concentrating on destroying infrastructure, including people’s homes, with the occasional foray into random massacre, as at Qana in 1996. One result was a prolonged Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon, including a siege of the capital, Beirut, in 1982, which killed about 15,000 civilians and zero terrorists.

            The result of this protracted conflict, as one might expect, was the ruin of the country. Not, of course, Israel, whose wars were fully financed by US aid and armaments.

            • Kowalainen says:

              Yes, and you as a beneficiary of the theft of natural resources from ME and Africa. If you are critical of the wars in ME, feel free to hand back the prosperity you have been handed. Start with your Internet connection, computer, car, albatross of a house and other frivolous excesses you have grown accustomed to.

              So when will you take the responsibility that of which you demand of “others” to take? Any takers beside Lidia?

  13. Harry McGibbs says:

    “France’s economy contracted by a record 13.8 percent in the second quarter under the impact of coronavirus lockdowns, the national statistics institute INSEE said on Friday…

    “The second quarter figure means the French economy has been shrinking for three consecutive quarters and continues to be in recession.” [ie it was shrinking *before* the pandemic.]

    https://www.thelocal.fr/20200731/frances-economy-contracted-by-record-138-percent-during-lockown

  14. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Anti-government protesters have occupied two key crossroads in central Sofia, threatening to block traffic until the conservative government they accuse of corruption resigns.

    “Thousands of people have rallied for three weeks in the Bulgarian capital and other cities in the EU member’s biggest protests in years.”

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/bulgarian-anti-government-protesters-block-central-sofia-200730102635205.html

  15. Harry McGibbs says:

    “…the hit to UK employment and household finances is gathering pace.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jul/30/uk-economic-revival-jobs-concerns-grow-lockdown-easing

  16. Harry McGibbs says:

    “After the U.S. dollar was removed from the gold convertibility, Debt began to climb rapidly and, during the Great Financial Crisis, cumulative Debt soared past cumulative GDP and has since gone parabolic…

    “Since 1982, if you backed out Debt from the equation, the economy would have actually been shrinking.If we back out just the Federal Debt alone from GDP, it would have been negative in most quarters since 2008.

    “This has been a global phenomenon. Globally, GDP produced from Debt has declined on average over 11% in comparison to 2009…

    “it’s possible that we may have crossed the secular, systemic Rubicon into a new paradigm in which the expansion of money supply has no effect, or even a negative effect, on GDP growth.”

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4362396-debt-financialization-gross-domestic-product-and-systemic-paradigm-shift

    • Chrome Mags says:

      “Since 1982, if you backed out Debt from the equation, the economy would have actually been shrinking.If we back out just the Federal Debt alone from GDP, it would have been negative in most quarters since 2008.

      “This has been a global phenomenon. Globally, GDP produced from Debt has declined on average over 11% in comparison to 2009…

      Interesting that conventional oil peaked in 2006.

  17. Harry McGibbs says:

    “This economy is bad. It is not on the verge of recovery, but Wall Street has recovered. The S&P 500 is within 5% of its peak and the DJIA has risen about 40% in four months…

    “…when it comes to the markets, remember that what Wall Street doesn’t know will hurt us.”

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2020/07/30/the-economic-crash-what-wall-street-doesnt-know-will-hurt-us/#560d3505337a

  18. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The owner of a Nevada solar farm financed with government backing filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy, proposing to repay taxpayers less than half of what they are owed on $425 million in outstanding public debt used to build the project.”

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/energy-department-poised-to-lose-up-to-225-million-on-solar-project-bankruptcy-11596145244

    • Robert Firth says:

      I believe this was the Crescent Dunes solar energy project. It used very expensive high technology (molten salt) and unfortunately the (Spanish) contractor who built it did a very poor job. The installation never reached more than 40% of its claimed output, and the need for almost constant maintenance raised the cost of its output to more than twice the then current market price.

      Its supposed advantage was no intermittency, since the salt could stay molten and provide power through ten or twelve hours of darkness. I believe better engineering, by better teams in not so great a hurry, might have worked. Might.

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        “This month the Democratic presumptive presidential nominee, Joe Biden, outlined an ambitious plan for tackling climate change that shows how far the party has shifted on the issue since it controlled the White House…

        “Biden’s new plan, which carries a price tag of $2 trillion, would eliminate carbon emissions from the electric sector by 2035, impose stricter gas mileage standards, fund investments to weatherize millions of homes and commercial buildings, and upgrade the nation’s transportation system.

        “To reach its 2035 carbon-free electricity goal, the campaign includes wind, solar and several forms of energy that are not always counted in state renewable portfolio standards, such as nuclear, hydropower and biomass.”

        https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2020/07/30/biden-calls-100-percent-clean-electricity-by-2035-heres-how-far-we-have-go/

      • Tim Groves says:

        Also, this facility has incinerated a lot of unfortunate birds. Those that avoid being chopped up by wind turbines risk being broiled alive in mid-air by these abominable solar contraptions.

        This video shows footage from a similar facility at Ivampah, San Bernardino.

        https://youtu.be/ICLXQN_lURk

    • I see that Popular Mechanics has a recent article called Why the World’s Most Advanced Solar Plants Are Failing.

      It references a new NREL report called Concentrating Solar Power Best Practices Study, which is really about everything that is going wrong.

      This report is titled CSP Best Practices, but it can be more appropriately viewed as a mix of problematic issues that have been identified, along with potential solutions or approaches to address those issues. In some cases, but not all, the solutions are in fact best practices. But in other cases, they may be more accurately viewed as practices valuable for consideration or as innovative but unproven ideas to solve problems or improve operations.

      The report notes:

      The very nature of fixed-price, fixed-schedule, full-wraparound performance-guarantee EPC contracts has likely been a main reason for issues experienced at existing CSP plants. Given the nascent state of the technology and the market, some EPCs did not have adequate knowledge to properly bid, engineer, procure, construct, and commission projects. As a result, many EPCs and projects have struggled with cost, schedule, and performance. The most successful projects have experienced owner and EPC contractor teams.

      The cost of electricity generated bu CSP has been high, but has been falling. This is a chart from the NREL report:

      https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/csp-levelized-cost-of-electricity-nrel.png

  19. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Argentina economy minister Martin Guzman emphasized on Thursday that the country’s proposal to creditors to restructure around $65 billion in foreign debt was the maximum effort it could make, and hinted the deadline for a deal could be extended.”

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-argentina-debt/argentinas-guzman-says-debt-offer-maximum-effort-hints-at-deadline-delay-idUSKCN24V3NA

  20. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Mexico’s economy contracted 17.3 per cent in the second quarter compared with the previous three months, putting it on course to be one of the biggest emerging market casualties of the coronavirus pandemic.

    “It is the fifth quarterly contraction in a row.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/1e25c567-66c3-44e0-86ed-54805a5d6503

  21. covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    https://apnews.com/e3081a60a6abf62effa2e6030556ee30

    “While deaths from the coronavirus in the U.S. are mounting rapidly, public health experts are seeing a flicker of good news: The second surge of confirmed cases appears to be leveling off.

    Scientists aren’t celebrating by any means, warning that the trend is driven by four big, hard-hit places — Arizona, California, Florida and Texas — and that cases are rising in close to 30 states in all, with the outbreak’s center of gravity seemingly shifting from the Sun Belt toward the Midwest.”

    once most of the more densely populated areas get past their “surge”, then the pandemic will be winding down.

    man oh man, I hate being wrong.

    https://covidtracking.com/blog/cases-declining-deaths-rising-hospital-data-remains-a-question-mark

    daily death charts 7 day moving average peaked at about 2,000 and plunged to 500 but is now back up to about 1,000.

    now daily cases are dropping, so the daily death chart should be heading down soon.

    or not.

    • covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “Before this week’s decrease, we saw five weeks of sharp increases in new cases. This is our third week of sharp rises in COVID-19 deaths. We can expect that the spike in cases from the last several weeks will continue to translate into rising deaths in the first half of August, though the absolute number of COVID-19 patients who will die of the disease in the next few weeks remains unknowable.”

  22. covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    https://www.oann.com/fda-chief-covid-vaccine-must-be-at-least-50-effective-to-be-approved/

    “FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn recently announced he will approve a vaccine for COVID-19 if it’s at least 50% effective. On Thursday, Hahn confirmed the U.S. government has several vaccine candidates that have entered the final stages of clinical trials.
    However, he has said he will not approve a vaccine unless it’s proven safe.

    “We all want a vaccine tomorrow, that’s unrealistic,” added Hahn. “We all want a vaccine that’s 100% effective: again, unrealistic.”

    so here you go everybody!

    a lifesaving vaccine that is…

    50% effective!

    • covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2020/07/29/johns-hopkins-press-conference-coronavirus-pandemic-latest/

      “A reasonable timeline for wide distribution of vaccines is likely the end of 2021, according to Dr. Bar-Zeev.”

    • Lidia17 says:

      Just watched this today.. the first part is about HCQ censorship, then he gets into some of the sketchy drug and vax papers/trials. The “Frontline” docs seem to be right-ish, but in an interview with Michelle Malkin, Bigtree talks about being a life-long Democrat.

      Very good segment towards the end of the first link where he parses the initial vax trials and shows up how wacky they are! Very chilling overall.

      https://thehighwire.com/videos/the-cyber-attack-on-truth/

      • Rodster says:

        The HCQ censorship is VERY telling this is a power grab by the Elite. I wonder how many of them including Anthony Fauci will volunteer to take the Vaccine? I bet none of them will but they will push the vaccine on we the people or the useless eaters while Bill Gates is adding to his pile of billions.

        Medical tyranny at its finest. George Orwell in his wildest dreams could not come close to what is happening today. And the SUCKERS i.e. “useless eaters” just continue to get spoon fed lies upon lies and will come begging for “forced injections and the banning of cash”.

      • Minority Of One says:

        I only came across Del Bigtree for the first time a few weeks ago. Excellent interview.
        Looks like he got banned from various social mediums this week. Nuff said.

    • Ed says:

      Well at 50% we will need to give three vaccines if they each cover a different 50% that will give 87.5% coverage.

  23. fred_goes_bush says:

    Snapshot from Thailand:

    Population: 69M
    COVID deaths to date: 58 (fifty eight)
    Tourism as % of GDP: 22
    No of visitors per year: ~40M, ~11M of those are Chinese
    The country still had Chinese tourists post-Wuhan
    Current state of international tourism: Complete shutdown, borders closed
    Societal disruption & suicides: Way up, v.limited social safety net

    The interesting question is how do ‘they’ achieve this?

    What could persuade a country to do that much damage to itself with so little justification? What bribery or threats are employed?

    • Minority Of One says:

      I believe the WHO is telling governments what to do, and they just follow orders.

  24. fred_goes_bush says:

    I’ve been discussing the progress of the virus and societal response since it began with a non-conspiracist friend, who’s a really good thinker. We both agree that most data these days is manipulated to fit the narrative, so it’s really hard to get to the truth of any matter.

    He said he’d been looking at excess deaths as the main metric as it’s one that’s hard to corrupt.

    Then it hit me later, that’s why e.g. aged care homes have been deliberately mismanaged, why treatment has been so poor in US hospitals and why safe, effective treatments such as Hydroxchloroquine + zinc are suppressed. It’s to get the death rate up to justify the ongoing panic.

  25. Rodster says:

    This is why you should always question EVERYTHING. Anthony Fauci says we should obey social distancing laws, wear mask and he says Hydroxchloroquine is safe and doesn’t work but he assures everyone that rushed to market vaccines will do the job. So if Fauci is preaching all the do’s and don’ts about Covid 19 then why is he breaking all of them? Because he is an ELITIST and the rules don’t apply to him but more importantly because Covid 19 isn’t the Monster Virus he and the media have made it to be.

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/the-elitists-are-rising-their-lives-to-maintain-lockdowns/

    https://d33wjekvz3zs1a.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Fauci-Anthony-Game-no-mask.jpg

    • Rodster says:

      and he says Hydroxchloroquine ISN’T safe

      • Duncan Idaho says:

        It isn’t for covid

        • Rodster says:

          And there are many doctors who have come out and would say you are wrong.

          • Tim Groves says:

            Duncan is never wrong!

            No doubt he could explain to you why he isn’t wrong on this issue, but his mode of giving out pronouncements is similar to that of the Sibyls such as the Oracle at Delphi.

            The most we can expect out of Duncan the an occasional hint.

        • Wolfbay says:

          I wish Trump never mentioned HCQ. Dr Chris Martenson says there is good evidence that HCQ and Zinc are effective if taken early in the disease process. It’s been so politicized that if I became infected I probably won’t be able to be treated with it.

    • Lidia17 says:

      He just said people should be wearing goggles or face shields, too.
      Birx backs him up.

      https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/dr-fauci-says-people-should-probably-use-eye-shields-protect-against-covid-19

      https://twitter.com/theconservador/status/1288823368985313280
      “And they can be decorated!”

      • Lidia17 says:

        They really are shameless. Psychopaths.

      • How about face shields instead of masks? These might be more acceptable to wearers. I have a face shield I was, usually without a mask. I keep a mask in my purse, in case someone want a mask instead.

        The solutions that work are ones that people can be persuaded to do. Leaders have to be willing to do them as well. I don’t see leaders with both masks and face shields.

        Having both a mask and face shield on makes it difficult to be understood when a person talks. I have also had difficulty with my glasses fogging over, when I have both on.

    • We also saw the earlier video of Fauci, when he took off his mask as soon as the camera was turned away from him, but there were still people around him in the room.

      • Duncan Idaho says:

        A Fauci interview.
        Insightful, but a bit detailed for this podcast.
        Virologist talking to each other.
        But, if you have a concentration—

        TWiV 641: COVID-19 with Dr. Anthony Fauci

        https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-641/

      • Dan says:

        Omg I am so sick of the argument of whether or not its fake….just go out and expose yourself to the virus I don’t care!!!! The real matter is what is going to happen to the economy and how and when it is going to affect us….the people on planet earth….

        Do you really think that the PTB can orchestrate something as complicated as this and not have someone screw it up? Really?!?!!??! Have you ever met a politician or a major CEO? I have and most of the time the are about as smart as a box of rocks! They get to their positions by playing the game but by now someone would have spilled the beans. Sorry I am just getting so bored with the constant barrage of this is fake story……..really Dude….you are getting very lame!!

        • Tim Groves says:

          Who are you addressing as “Dude”, Dan. It isn’t clear from the context of your comment or its position in the thread.

          Also, your language in general comes over as trolling. If you are not trolling, you would be well advised to employ a different tone. Because the tone you are using now screams, “I am a troll and I live in a hole.” 🙂

        • Rodster says:

          “Omg I am so sick of the argument of whether or not its fake”

          Who said it’s fake? What I and others have said and fully believe, that it’s not as bad as what you have been led to believe. Look at all the current athletes who have tested positive. Have they “ALL” dropped dead? No !

          They have recovered. Covid 19 is NOT the Black Death II. It’s another variant of the Common Flu albeit a little stronger. You really need to educate yourself. Don’t believe everything the Media and The Elite tell you. Question EVERYTHING !

          • Rodster says:

            Oh btw, I practice what I preach. I don’t wear mask in public and I don’t partake in social distancing. If Covid 19 strikes me dead, so be it because LIFE is terminal. Something else will get you. That fact has been proven for thousands of years.

            • Harry McGibbs says:

              “If Covid 19 strikes me dead, so be it because LIFE is terminal.”

              But surely wearing a mask and maintaining social distancing at least reduces the possibility of *you* passing Covid 19 on to *someone else*?

              Even if the science is somewhat unsettled and the virus is endemic it would seem a kind thing to do.

              https://comb.io/MsQUWB

            • Minority Of One says:

              I don’t wear a mask either, except in shops because I’ll probably get arrested if I don’t (UK). Never put sanitizer on my hands, doing that several times a day has got to have negative affects on your skin, and your natural skin flora.

              If I pass Covid-19 on to someone else, it won’t matter if they are healthy or young because they will not even notice. If they are plumpish or seriously ill, then yes they are susceptible, but then again maybe they should not be out and about.

              As I have mentioned before, I think the almost 8,000 M of us on this planet are killing the planet off, does not seem to bother anyone though. A few less of us would be doing the rest of the planet a favour. There are way too many species on this planet that I like, and on the verge of extinction (most species of vultures for example, are on the brink, and albatrosses too, wonderful birds).

            • Tim Groves says:

              Harry, using your logic, we can never end the mask + social distancing custom because there will always be a finite chance of passing some nasty infection or other onto another person.

              Conventionally, people who are showing symptoms of potentially dangerous contagious pathogens are asked (not ordered) to take precautions such as wearing masks when in the presence of others who could be infected. This is the case for people with active tuberculosis for instance. But people who are asymptomatic have not been not asked to do so because up to now this degree of prophylactic caution has been considered overkill.

              Even in the bad old days of combining those with leopracy to certain islands, this policy only applied to those who were symptomatic.

              The virus that causes COVID-19 is a coronavirus, and it’s mode of infection seems to be the same as that of other coronaviruses that frequently cause colds. According to Dr. Pastula (a neurohospitalist at UC Health University of Colorado Hospital and an associate professor of neurology, infectious diseases and epidemiology for the University of Colorado School of Medicine and the Colorado School of Public Health.), “In terms of transmission, this virus appears very similar to other coronavirus strains. It travels through infectious droplets. If someone coughs or sneezes, the droplets fall to the surface. If someone touches that surfaces, then touches their face, they can get the new coronavirus. It’s also possible to have someone sneeze or cough directly towards you, though infectious droplets can only really travel a maximum of about 6 feet before falling to the ground.”

              That’s why public health experts are urging people to keep their distance from one another.

              https://www.uchealth.org/today/viruses-101-why-the-new-coronavirus-is-so-contagious-how-to-fight-it/

              According to Dr. Pastula, most experts agree that to avoid getting this coronavirus,

              “It’s very important to wash your hands frequently (soap and water works best) and not to touch your face with unwashed hands. Contaminated hands are the No. 1 way that this virus is transmitted. You can get it from touching a surface that has virus on it, then touching your face.”

              The upshot. Stop worrying about what other people are doing and protect yourself by taking precautions that you think will work for you. Wear a mask if you like. Avoid French kissing. Bung wet tissue paper up your nostrils. Stay in your basement at all times. Or get yourself a space suit for trips to the supermarket. But even then, you could pick up a coronavirus infection from the germs on you smartphone.

              https://youtu.be/ctGzLjUfpag

            • hkeithhenson says:

              > Contaminated hands are the No. 1 way that this virus is transmitted.

              That may not be the case, in fact, it probably isn’t.

              As they have learned more about this virus, it looks like the biggest spreading mode is aerosol. It’s not that you can’t get the virus other ways, but those aerosol spreading events seem to be the major way it gets around.

              Fortunately, masks really reduce this spreading mode.

  26. Minority Of One says:

    This YT video (6 min) re China floods is from 21 July, but very interesting. Explains why so much farmland is being deliberately flooded, to save cities, especially Wuhan.

    A closing comment – ‘A massive famine in China is expected’

    The deception of the 3 Gorges Dam released
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZCpz0g-IrA

    Today’s Crossroads update has a few items on China food security, or lack of it. (from 2 m 45 s). The CCP is telling the 31 regions of China they are responsible for local food security (reading between the lines – when famine hits we can blame you).

    Food Crisis with the Floods, Locusts, Virus In China; Summer Snow in Beijing; US Forms New Alliance
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rtJ4hU6gFEI

    In the meantime, the heavy rain that has been causing the serious flooding the last 50 days or so is forecast to move north (in China) over the next few days. Presumably new lands will be flooded.
    Interesting times ahead, for as all.

    • Thanks for the videos. The story in China does seem to be disturbing. I can see why China would want to protect Wuhan and Shanghai, even if it meant flooding rural areas. There would be fewer people in the way, and it might be more possible to move most of these people, a person might think.

      The food situation is concerning as well. Why do leaders bring it up, if it is not a concern?

      It would seem like China would be ripe for political changes as well, if things get too bad. Between the financial situation, the floods, COVID-19 and the food supply, they definitely have problems.

      • info says:

        I thought it would be more advantageous to let the Pandemic go around but control its spread. Thereby reducing demand for food that way.

  27. Duncan Idaho says:

    Best dive ever

    2020-Q2 GDP

    US -33%
    UK -14%
    Germany -11%
    China +3% (if you trust it)

  28. Chrome Mags says:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/astrazeneca-ceo-coronavirus-vaccine-might-require-annual-shots.html

    ‘We don’t know’: AstraZeneca CEO says ‘unpredictable’ coronavirus may require annual vaccinations’

    But I thought AstraZeneca’s vaccine included T-cells which have memory? Maybe this bonanza of pharm money is just too alluring to be satisfied with a single shot. Like hurricane’s are to the weather channel or merchandise sales are at Xmas, they are now use to the flow of billions and want mo money!

    Just to be sure we really ought to inoculate the masses every single year. Oh, ok, here’s another couple hundred billion. Need more?

    • GP says:

      “Just to be sure we really ought to inoculate the masses every single year. Oh, ok, here’s another couple hundred billion. Need more?”

      The Flu model.

      Just call it a “Health Subscription” and people will probably pay up but not take the treatment.

      • Duncan Idaho says:

        Plus, in most cases, you are going to need 2 vaccinations.
        In the US, that will be hard.
        Its a covid, one is going to have to be vaccinated frequently, if it follows other covid .

        • Tim Groves says:

          Why not optimize your Vitamin D level, just say “No” to vaccination, and let your immune system take care of this virus? And if you happen to come down with it, take one of the several effective cures that should be available? You know it makes sense.

          Says Catherine Austin Fitts:

          When you help a family with their finances, it is imperative to understand all their risk issues. Their financial success depends on successful mitigation of all risk – whether financial or non-financial – they encounter in their daily lives. All non-financial risks impact the allocation of family resources – attention, time, assets and money.

          Many of my clients and their children had been devastated and drained by health care failures and corruption–and the most common catalyst for this devastation was vaccine death and injury. After their lengthy and horrendous experiences with the health care establishment, they would invariably ask, “If the corruption is this bad in medicine, food and health, what is going on in the financial world?” Chilled by the thought, they would search out a financial professional who was schooled in U.S. government and financial corruption. And they would find me.

          The result of this flow of bright, educated people blessed with the resources to pay for my time was that, for ten years, I got quite an education about the disabilities and death inflicted on our children by what I now call “the great poisoning.” As a result, I had the opportunity to repeatedly price out the human damage to all concerned–not just the affected children but their parents, siblings and future generations—mapping the financial costs of vaccine injury again and again and again. These cases were not as unusual as you might expect. Currently 54% of American children have one or more chronic diseases. Doctors that I trust assure me the number is much higher as many children and their families can not afford the care and testing necessary to properly diagnose what ails them.

          One of the mothers featured in VAXXED—a must-watch documentary for any awake citizen, as is its sequel VAXXED II: The People’s Truth—estimated that a heavily autistic child would cost present value $5MM to raise and care for over a lifetime. When my clients who were grandparents insisted that they would not interfere with their children’s vaccine choices because it was “none of their business,” I would say, “Really? Who has the $5MM? You or your kids? When your kids need the $5MM to raise their vaccine-injured child, are you going to refuse them? You are the banker, and it is your money that is at risk here, so it is your business. Do you want to spend that $5MM on growing a strong family through the generations or on managing a disabled child who did not have to be disabled?” Often, that $5MM in expenditures also translates into divorce, depression and lost opportunities for siblings.

          https://home.solari.com/deep-state-tactics-101-the-covid-injection-fraud-its-not-a-vaccine/

          • I know from looking at medical malpractice claim information that the cost of raising (and lifetime care) for a disabled child is distressingly high. Certainly, it is well over $1 million. And no one is going to cover the cost. The mother (or father) can quit their job to be a full-time caregiver, but this still leaves a lot of physician visits. And a parent doesn’t live forever. How is this person going to be cared for, permanently?

            I have often wondered why the healthcare system tries to “save” so many children who will need permanent care. It would be better for the mother to have another child and try again.

            • GP says:

              Re: long term care.

              News sites are always looking for the “I woke up after several decades in hospital in a coma” stories. Rarely do they report the other side of the coin or consider the benefits for the patient or the society that has supported them.

              Some years ago I read a story about a man involved in a single vehicle car crash in one of England’s less heavily populated areas.

              He was severely injured and brain damaged but the local hospital managed to keep him alive.
              It transpired that he was an immigrant without a valid visa who was meant to have returned to his country in Eastern Europe a year or to before the accident. Obviously that was not now going to happen.

              Being a location with a small population the local health authority had quite a small budget to work with compared to the big cities but this man’s long term care costing circa £350k per annum at the time, became their responsibility.

              There were no local facilities that could provide the service “correctly” and for an extended period, so he was transferred to a Hospital in London where a room, equipment and staff could be provided and paid for by the small health authority up country. That meant their own service to local people were adversely affected by the £350k per annum budget transfer to London.

              The man, as I recall, was about 30 at the time of the accident and was expected to continue to survive, in a vegetative state, for something like 30 years. Maybe longer.

              With the best will in the world I find it very difficult to see a sound moral argument for that sort of situation being useful and acceptable. But equally it would be very difficult, once the medics had “saved” the chap’s life, to take a different decision.

            • Right! Lots of very tiny babies “saved” as well, with poor outcomes.

            • fred_goes_bush says:

              The ‘healthcare’ system was what damaged them in the first place e..g. by excessive vaccines administered in the pursuit of profits.

              The reason they’re “saved” is again profits from ongoing treatment, plus it’s the medical cartel who has control of when you’re allowed to die.

              The average American 65 year old takes 27 prescription drugs. What a fantastic business model.

            • hkeithhenson says:

              > The average American 65 year old takes 27 prescription drugs

              That’s really impressive. Got a URL for this data?

            • I doubt the average 65 year old takes 27 prescription drugs. This 2019 article (from Kaiser Family Foundation) says https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/data-note-prescription-drugs-and-older-adults/

              Nearly nine in ten (89%) adults 65 and older report they are currently taking any prescription medicine. This compares to three-fourths of 50-64 year olds who report taking prescription drugs, half (51%) of 30-49 year olds, and four in ten (38%) 18-29 year olds. Older adults are also more likely than their younger counterparts to be taking multiple prescription medications. More than half of adults 65 and older (54%) report taking four or more prescription drugs compared to one-third of adults 50-64 years old (32%) and about one in ten adults 30-49 (13%) or 18-29 (7%).

              Of course, I am sure that this doesn’t include the many vaccines and the occasional rounds of antibiotics for “whatever is going around.”

            • Lidia17 says:

              There was a podcast by the LA Times some months ago that talked about folks in vegetative states being warehoused in CA “vent farms”. It followed the story of one in particular, an illegal immigrant whose name was unknown for 15+ years. They called him “Sixty-Six Garage”.

              https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/room-20/id1473207217
              (9 episodes.)

              $4 million at least for just this one guy (so far).

            • Norman Pagett says:

              we used to have a family doctor of the ‘old school’ had no compunction at all about allowing a badly disable baby quietly ‘slip away’ or helping an aged patient ‘on their way’

              it seemed a fairly common and accepted act of kindness in the medical profession.

              the community cannot afford £$ millions to keep people alive indefinetely

            • All of these “care homes” of various types help maintain the view that we need to provide top level care to everyone, no matter how disabled. I know that when we had my husband’s parents in an Assisted Living Center (for people who are better off than require Nursing Home Care) near our home, we would get phone calls from the facility insisting that we pick up our relative and take him/her to an emergency room because of a rash or other minor complaint. I suppose the home was concerned about possible spread within the facility, if the cause was something contagious. An emergency room is the most expensive type of care, but for some reason (health cost reimbursement rules?), lower levels of care facilities, such as “Urgent Care Facilities” could not be used. And we certainly couldn’t just wait and see if the problem went away by itself.

            • Tim Groves says:

              Prescription per capita in the United States by age group 2013
              Published by Statista Research Department, Apr 30, 2014

              The average number of prescriptions per capita in the U.S. was, on average, 12.2 per capita in 2013. Trends indicate that the number of prescriptions per capita increases with age. Those aged 65-79 years utilize, on average 27.3 prescriptions per year. The number of prescriptions filled in the U.S. has increased in recent years.

              Prescription drugs in the U.S.
              It is expected that there will be 4.57 billion prescriptions filled annually by the year 2024. The total percentage of the U.S. population that had used prescription drugs in the past 30 days was about 47 percent as of 2014. The top therapeutic area in the U.S. in 2016 was represented through antihypertensive drugs, followed by pain management drugs.

              The U.S. pharmaceutical industry
              Residents in the U.S. pay some of the highest pharmaceutical per capita costs worldwide. One consequence of high pharmaceutical costs in the U.S. is a booming pharmaceutical industry. The U.S. pharmaceutical industry, which is responsible for the production and development of prescription drugs, in the U.S. has grown significantly in recent years. Domestic revenue from U.S. pharmaceutical companies was about 225 billion U.S. dollars in 2017.

              Read more:
              https://www.statista.com/statistics/315476/prescriptions-in-us-per-capita-by-age-group/

            • I imagine most of these prescriptions are for a one-month supply of a drug. Thus, 27.3 prescriptions per year would come out to a little over 2 per person per month.

            • hkeithhenson says:

              > Those aged 65-79 years utilize, on average 27.3 prescriptions per year.

              Thanks for looking it up. Wow.

  29. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    Boy, my first business suit I bought was from JC Penney and gold signet ring.
    That was close to 45 years ago….now..
    J.C. Penney looks to sell company in bankruptcy to avoid liquidation
    USA TODAY
    Kelly Tyko, USA TODAY
    USA TODAYJuly 29, 2020
    J.C. Penney is looking to go forward with a sale of the business to avoid a brush with liquidation.
    The retailer’s attorney, Joshua Sussberg of Kirkland & Ellis, said during a bankruptcy court hearing Wednesday that the sale should be completed by the fall under an expedited process and rebuffed rumors of a liquidation of the entire chain.
    “We have had not one discussion with our lenders or any other stakeholders about a liquidation. That is simply not in the cards,” Sussberg said.
    The retailer filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in mid-May with 846 stores and 85,000 employees at the time of the filing. J.C. Penney has said it hopes to emerge from bankruptcy with about 600 stores and has begun liquidation sales at around 150 stores.
    ….In mid-July, the company received an extension from certain lenders until July 31 to secure their approval for a business plan to restructure its operations in Chapter 11 bankruptcy and announced plans to cut 1,000 jobs.

    Sussberg said Wednesday there are three separate bids being considered for sale of the company’s real estate and other assets. He did not name the bidders and called the proposals confidential. He said they were actively in negotiations ahead of the Friday deadline.

    During the hearing, Sussberg lambasted an article published earlier this week by The New York Post that reported a $1.75 billion bid by private equity firm Sycamore Partners to buy J.C. Penney and merge with another struggling chain Belk Inc. Sussberg called the report “ill-informed.”
    “We are moving forward with a sales process,” Sussberg said. “We are hopeful.”
    A spokesperson at Sycamore Partners declined to comment.
    The coronavirus has deepened the ongoing troubles for department stores, which have had a difficult time adjusting to the rise of digital threats and nimble physical competitors that offer affordable fast-fashion apparel.
    As many as 25,000 stores could shutter this year as businesses continue to feel the impacts of the pandemic, according to a recent report from Coresight Research.
    Ascena Retail Group, Brooks Brothers, Lucky Brand, J.C. Penney, Neiman Marcus, Sur La Table and J. Crew have all filed for Chapter 11 since May.
    Many others are downsizing locations
    Can’t imagine why there isn’t a financial panic yet….oh, that’s right, free checks from Uncle Sam

    • covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      panic is one of the biggest dangers.

      group behavior might do much more damage to the economy later this year, as the true nature of the present economic damage comes into clearer focus, as the average person sees that mass unemployment is permanent and that we have fallen into a great depression.

      those who still have some money will be holding on to it ever more tightly, and thus the velocity of money will tank even more.

      after the school year restarts, this will be more real to people, that things are far far worse than the 2019 normal.

      • covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        “The U.S. economy posted its worst contraction in history during the second quarter, with GDP from April to June plunging 32.9%. Meanwhile, U.S. weekly jobless claims came in at 1.434 million, roughly in line with estimates. However, continuing claims, or those who have been collecting for at least two weeks, totaled 17.018 million, up from about 16 million last week.”

        the big news may have been that minus 33% but:

        just another Thursday reminder that before covid, the usual weekly jobless claims were about 300,000.

        now after 18 or so weeks of record jobless claims, even though the number has declined from its peak, the number is still ONE MILLION higher than the previous usual weekly number.

        how long can it go on with over a million lost jobs per week?

  30. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Donald Trump has called for November’s presidential election to be postponed, saying increased postal voting could lead to fraud and inaccurate results.

    “He suggested a delay until people can “properly, securely and safely” vote.”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53597975

    • That is a creative approach to the problem. Since a vaccine is just around the corner, no problem!

    • covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      the POTUS has no authority to postpone the election.

      99.9% chance the election happens on schedule.

      • Dan says:

        No? But how about the Attorney General?

        • covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

          AG Barr seems like a man who actually cares about what is just and right, and so I suspect he would be all for carrying on with the election on its designated date.

          I also suspect that 99% of Americans want the election to happen.

          99.9% chance the election happens on schedule.

          • Dan says:

            Just and right!!!!??? I almost pissed myself I laughed so hard! Barr is about as crooked as they come!!!

  31. MG says:

    Jiří Beran, a Czech physician, says Isoprinosine, which is used against dengue fever, is effective against coronavirus. He tried it on himself and his son:

    https://science.hnonline.sk/medicina/2187416-imunolog-liecil-koronavirus-u-seba-aj-syna-liek-uz-davno-existuje-hovori

    The seniors in a care centre in the Czech Republic were also prescribed Isoprinosine (inosin prinobex) and no one died.

    “Viete koľko umiera v Českej republike nakazených nad 85 rokov? Vo vekovej kohorte 85 plus ochorelo do konca minulého týždňa 430 osôb a 119 zomrelo. Zomiera každý tretí človek,” povedal Baran.

    V prípade litovelského domova seniorov sa však štatistiky nepotvrdili. Z dvadsiatich seniorov, ktorým ošetrujúca lekárka Isoprinosine hneď po prvých príznakoch predpísala, nepodľahol chorobe ani jeden.”

    • Chrome Mags says:

      There would need to be double blind medically supervised testing, but it sounds promising.

      • Tim Groves says:

        If people developing serious symptoms are given this and the symptoms go away, why would double blind medically supervised testing be required? It would be nice to know that a treatment works and is free from horrible side-effects, but we already know that Isoprinosine has few major side effects and is effective for many viral infections.

        Isoprinosine (inosine pranobex) is an old drug that has been extensively studied and used in many countries for herpes, genital warts, influenza, melanomas, other tumors, hepatitis B, and a rare brain inflammation in children caused by the zoster virus (subacute sclerosing panencephalopathy). No one really knew how it worked (not that it always did) until someone noticed that it seemed to be boosting people’s immune response, perhaps by helping the body recognize that it was under attack. When the AIDS crisis struck, it was one of the first drugs evaluated.

        Isoprinosine seems to be well tolerated. The few side effects reported included: dizziness, problems with digestion (for example, slight stomach pain and feeling full after you ate only a small amount of food), and itching.

        Incidentally, how many vaccines pass double blind medically supervised testing before they are rolled out on a massive scale? Those annual flu shots don’t have time to get proper testing because by the time the test results were in they would be useless for this year’s flu.

    • Thanks! There seem to be any number of inexpensive work arounds, but those who want to make money off of the epidemic are not interested in telling people about them.

  32. Harry McGibbs says:

    The French not in on the controlled demolition, apparently. Or could this be a double bluff? Or a smokescreen for an even more devious psy-op? The mind boggles.

    “As concerns grow of a return of Covid-19 in France… the French government is ruling out a nationwide lockdown in the event of the continued spread of the virus.

    “Prime Minister Jean Castex has been clear on this saying that a full confinement must be “avoided above all”.

    “Castex said the shutting down of the country again after the strict two month lockdown between March and May, would be “catastrophic” at an economic and social level…

    ““We will adapt,” Castex said.”

    [Guardian live news]

    • Duncan Idaho says:

      California and Florida hit new daily record high coronavirus deaths

      https://www.cbsnews.com/news/california-florida-coronavirus-new-daily-record-high-covid-deaths/

      It never left.
      One a State with a somewhat informed governor, and one with a creative thinker .

      The virus could care less.

      • covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        197 daily deaths in CA.

        how can they possibly cope with such masssive carrrnage?

        same day deaths in NY = 6

        in a couple of months, CA will be there.

        the down slope usually mirrors the up slope.

        • 197 deaths in a day in a population of about 40 million is not a whole lot. California has had 142,821 deaths from all causes on the table the CDC shows https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm, which seems to be from February 1, 2020. So that would be six months time. The next column indicates that actual deaths year to date are 104% of expected deaths, so about 137,328 deaths are expected in a half-year, and 274,656 in a full year. So something like 753 deaths would be expected from all causes, on any given day. The 197 deaths would be a 26% increase in expected deaths, relative to expected.

          When I look at the same table for other states, I see hugely worse death statistics. New York City, for the six month period, is at 198% of expected deaths. The remainder of New York is at 125% for the six-month period. New Jersey is at 144% for the six-month period. Massachusetts is at 124% for the six-month period.

          California got its COVID problems postponed with its early shut down. The problems don’t go away, however. The deaths could start looking like Massachusetts (at 124% for the six-month period), if it keeps up the current death rate for six months.

    • Xabier says:

      Any attempt to enforce a real lock-down in the immigrant suburbs in France would no doubt fail – rather spectacularly – in the summer heat which is now upon us.

    • At least some people have figured out what should be obvious.

  33. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    Almost all commenters here seem to be Boomers…well…
    MarketWatch
    Bye, boomer: the coming cull of workers over 50
    Brett Arends
    July 29, 2020, 12:01
    Employers seize on slumps to purge more expensive, more experienced workers, study warns
    Uh-oh. Those of us who remember when ’80s music was new had better start bracing ourselves for those big-box-store greeter jobs earlier than we expected.
    It doesn’t take a genius to see that the jobs market is probably heading for a massive, rolling shakeout. And that means plenty of employers may be using the cover of COVID-19 to get rid of lots of expensive older workers
    Age discrimination in the jobs market, which is supposedly illegal, goes up in recessions. Some employers take the opportunity to ax experienced workers who are paid a reasonable wage, and replace them with cheap, desperate kids who will put up with anything
    ……Bottom line: The higher the unemployment rate, the likelier employers are to favor younger women applicants over older women applicants. “All else equal, an older female is 6.8 percentage points less likely to receive a callback when she is competing against two additional younger female applicants, which translates to a 63% reduction relative to the mean.”
    They conclude: “Taken together, our two analyses provide compelling evidence that age discrimination rises as labor markets deteriorate. As far as we know, this is the first direct evidence for age discrimination varying with the business cycle, both for the firing and hiring margins
    ……s Let’s hope when this is all over there are actually some stores left hiring greeters
    Basically, we Boomers are not ready to retire and can’t rely on the financial sector to support us and employers are pushing us out the door with window dressing early retirement offers like those in the Airline Industry….
    If the Airline files for Chapter 1 1, bankruptcy….those packages go into receivership…haha

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bye-boomer-the-coming-cull-of-workers-over-50-2020-07-29?siteid=yhoof2

  34. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The virus has disrupted global and local food systems, and India’s poor and hungry are being affected worse than ever.”

    https://phys.org/news/2020-07-covid-worsens-hunger-india-world.html

  35. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The coronavirus struck at the heart of the British banking system yesterday as it wreaked havoc on the finances of two of the country’s biggest lenders. In a grim economic sign, Barclays has earmarked £3.7billion so far this year to cover the cost of loans to households and businesses turning sour, up £1.6billion since March.

    “And Spanish giant Santander Group wrote down the value of its UK arm by £5.4billion as profits dwindled.”

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-8573249/Coronavirus-strikes-heart-British-banking-system.html

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Spanish multinational banking firm Santander fell to its largest loss in history following a massive write-down on some of its businesses.

      “The group slumped to a €10.8billion (£9.8billion) loss in the first half of the year…”

      https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-8572407/Santander-records-biggest-loss-163-year-history.html

      • Minority Of One says:

        How does a bank cope with a 10.8 billion euro half-year loss, when the worst is still to come, without going bankrupt? Presumably they are being propped up?

        • Robert Firth says:

          Santander is an icon of predatory capitalism. Backed to the hilt by the Spanish government, it acquires overseas businesses, drains them of capital, and offers them as sacrifices to the bankruptcy courts. It will not bear those book losses: the taxpayers of other countries will. Score another win for European Union corruption.

      • Covid 19 stopped us burning fuel/consuming energy at an ever increasing rate

        that kicked away the foundations of what money requires in order to exist.

        how difficult can it be to understand that?

        Yet everybody has a different take on it.

        Billions of the earth’s inhabitants no longer possess the means to survive, the rest no longer possess the means to thrive in basic energy terms.

        yet discussions ramble on about putting up sunshades and other nonsense.

        Which is roughly the same as offering a sun shade to a man in the sahara who’s had no water for week

        • Minority Of One says:

          The nearest analogy I can think of is The Matrix. No-one wants to take the pill (i.e. accept reality). Almost no-one.

        • fred_goes_bush says:

          A note of positivity here please:

          TSLA shares are up for the year from $234 to $1,487, so that shows that a brave green future awaits us.

          Damn doomers always looking for the bad news.

  36. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Covid-19 has sucked up the political capacity of virtually every European nation, leaving every other area of policy playing second fiddle as the world tries to fight this invisible threat.

    “This has created a uniquely difficult problem for Boris Johnson, the UK Prime Minister, who faces the harrowing prospect of two unprecedented crises taking hold simultaneously before the end of 2020.

    “Brexit might not be at the top of anyone’s in-tray at the moment, but the clock is ticking on the UK’s current transition period with the European Union (EU), which allows the UK to operate as though it is more-or-less still a member state while both sides negotiate their future relationship. This expires on December 31.”

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/29/uk/eu-brexit-intl-gbr/index.html

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Businesses that have escaped the worst effects of the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic are typically in sectors which are more likely to feel the impacts of Brexit, a new analysis finds.”

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        “Boris Johnson is facing a major Brexit test with the future of Eurotunnel operations at stake, it has emerged…

        “Unless there is an overarching deal with one body responsible for legal disputes regarding the entire 30-mile (50km) tunnel there will be chaos, insiders say.”

        https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/30/brexit-european-court-row-puts-eurotunnel-operations-at-risk

        • Harry McGibbs says:

          “A disorderly break with the European Union at the end of the year poses a bigger threat to Britain’s food supplies than the coronavirus pandemic that saw supermarket shelves emptied, a Parliamentary committee warned…

          ““The government cannot afford to be complacent,” the report said.”

          https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brexit-bigger-threat-u-k-230100425.html

          • Robert Firth says:

            The game plan behind there panic stories is obvious: get the transition period extended. If it is done once, it can be done again, leaving the UK enslaved to the EU forever. Which has always been the goal of a large part of the political establishment. I fear this is our last chance at recovering our sovereignty, and I truly hope we stand firm, even in the face of enemies without and traitors within.

        • Too many details!

          Has anyone figured out what will happen to nuclear power plant inspections/standards? It seems like there was a UK organization that did this for the EU as a whole.

  37. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Shale profitability was already under pressure in 2019, and, in 2020, nothing could have prepared the U.S. shale sector for the COVID-19 pandemic. ”

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Halliburton-Looks-Beyond-Shale-As-Fracking-Remains-Unprofitable.html

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Shale firms could write down an estimated $300 billion in assets starting this quarter, pushing some out of compliance with loan covenants and sparking new bankruptcies, according to accounting and consulting firm Deloitte.”

      https://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL1N2E12YQ

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        “Denbury Resources Inc. became the latest debt-laden oil producer to say it will seek bankruptcy and hand ownership to lenders in the aftermath of a pandemic-fueled plunge in crude prices.”

        https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/denbury_to_file_chapter_11-29-jul-2020-162863-article/

        • It sounds like this is another natural gas producer that was having problems even before COVID-19 hit. It sounds like there is a plan for the company to keep operating, after wiping out some of those providing funding.

          • Hubbs says:

            As long as shale oil is thermodynamically providing a net energy return on the energy required to extract, (EROEI) process, and distribute, investors will be made whole by stealth government/FED bailouts. To keep the PONZI finance going, I suspect that the FED will have to even pay a hidden premium for this toxic garbage through some sort of special purpose vehicle (SPV). Of course, it will be argued that these are merely typicsl Buffet-like vulture capitalists who are buying up these distressed assets because they are a “bargain.”

            • Harry McGibbs says:

              “To help ease the economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act appropriated $454 billion to the Treasury Department to support the Federal Reserve Board’s emergency lending facilities.

              “The oil and gas sector, which was already facing serious financial difficulties unrelated to the coronavirus crisis, could be a key beneficiary of this relief… the Main Street Lending Program was established to provide emergency support to small and midsized businesses.

              “Yet after extensive pressure from the oil and gas industry, its allies in Congress, and the Trump administration, the program was changed to scope in heavily indebted oil and gas companies that were struggling well before the current crisis.”

              https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/reports/2020/07/31/488320/feds-oil-gas-bailout-mistake/

    • According to the article:

      “As oil demand recovers, I expect the international business will continue to be a more meaningful contributor to our revenue going forward,” Chief Executive Officer Jeff Millerwas quoted this week. “North America production is likely to remain structurally lower in the foreseeable future and has slower growth going forward.”

  38. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The crippling effects of the coronavirus crisis have crushed government and corporate finances and sent debt soaring… it is also crunching their credit ratings and causing a spike in defaults.”

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-ratings-graphic/how-the-coronavirus-is-crushing-credit-ratings-idUKKCN24U18Y

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “The American economy has lived on debt for a long time… U.S. companies owe …an eye-watering $17 trillion, the Financial Times reported earlier this month…

      “In the last few months, this mountain of corporate debt has been compounded by a once-in-a-century event… debt maturities put the livelihoods of millions of Americans at stake.”

      https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-corporate-debt-covid-19-bonds-federal-reserve-1521219

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        “A global squeeze on disposal income and a lockdown in the key Indian market caused a collapse in demand for gold jewellery in the first half of the year, according to new figures that underscore how record precious metals prices are being driven by demand from financial investors…

        “…weak physical demand for gold was more than offset by record inflows into gold-backed exchange traded funds…”

        https://www.ft.com/content/9c67f5ab-262a-4992-aebe-d818c9713b21

      • The US government is extending credit to practically every business, including junk rated businesses. The programs were originally scheduled to end Sept. 30. Now they look like they will end December 31.

        • Minority Of One says:

          So after Christmas, that’s nice. Unhappy New year!
          Surely the UK will now follow suit? UK furlough due to end in Oct, what’s a couple of extra months?
          Looks like collapse is going to be postponed until next year.
          Fast, what you thinking these days?

  39. Harry McGibbs says:

    “More than 11,000 people in the automotive industry have lost their job in the last six months due to coronavirus, as the sector heads for its worst year of car production since 1957… The last six months have been the weakest for vehicle manufacturing since 1954.”

    https://www.cityam.com/carmakers-shed-11000-jobs-as-production-set-for-worst-year-since-1957/

  40. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The Covid-19 crisis has taken a big bite out of the chocolate market, causing a collapse in demand that has sent cocoa prices sharply lower and created “disastrous” conditions for farmers…

    “The pandemic has already created a crisis for farmers, said Nestor Yao, president of the Capressa farmer co-operative, which represents about 3,200 farmers in Abengourou, in eastern Ivory Coast.”

    https://www.ft.com/content/37aa0ac8-e879-4dc2-b751-3eb862b12276

  41. DB says:

    Further below Minority of One posted a comment that included a video that covered, in part, the threat of the Three Gorges Dam bursting. If this is indeed a distinct possibility, the Chinese government’s apparent lack of significant action to reduce the threat of catastrophe (such as evacuation planning, fortifying river defenses, etc.) poses a conundrum. A dam burst would be close to a country, if not global civilization, killer. As I noted early on in the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, why would the Chinese government commit economic suicide unless it thought it was facing an existential threat? The government clearly cares little about the welfare of its people, as past politically-induced famines, easily preventable accidents/disasters, rampant pollution, and many other incidents illustrate. A dam burst would be an existential threat. Why no forceful action, even if it can’t be prevented? And why the extreme over-reaction to COVID? I’ve yet to see a consistent and coherent explanation for this, especially in light of these other kinds of threats/problems/disasters.

    • There is no place to evacuate the huge number of people to. And if their homes were destroyed, the businesses they worked for would likely be destroyed as well. Those who came back would have no livelihood and no place to live. The large number of homeless would represent a huge threat to the economy. They would easily catch diseases of all kinds and transmit them to others. They would likely participate in uprisings as well.

      I remember hearing a similar issue in Japan, at the time of the Fukushima event. There is no way that Japan could evacuate Tokyo, either.

      • DB says:

        By the same reasoning you articulated, the Communist Party would have recognized that lockdowns for COVID are hopeless, too, only ensuring greater economic and other pain. Nothing in the past — not far greater objective threats — got in the way of the Party’s push for economic advancement. If they understand anything, they understand how not to upset their economic engine.

  42. Tim Groves says:

    This video has been censored by YouTube, FB and Twitter. A group of proper doctors—you know, medical folks who actually treat patients and save lives—who are on the frontlines of the COVID-19 pandemic, held a press conference in DC to debunk a plethora official and mass media lies told about about Covid.

    They are saying that hydroxychloroquine and zinc given to mild cases will make people feel right as rain in no time.
    This doctor from Nigeria who works in Texas has treated over 350 Covid-19 case and hasn’t lost a single one. She reports many patients coming to see her are terrified of the diagnosis. My impression is that many American people are being terrorized to death by their government and media. Video’s like this should help calm people down.

    https://banned.video/watch?id=5f1fc7a468370e02f29f34cf

    • fred_goes_bush says:

      Good video, but will it work on people entrained by 24×7 MSM propaganda, Govt fear-porn and BigTech censorship? Doubt it.

      How strange that Hydroxychloroquine, a cheap, effective cure is more-or-less banned. Could that perhaps be helpful to Big Pharma?

      189 COVID deaths in 6 months in Aust, with a spike from the second wave happening now. Border closures, lockdowns, panic.

      Normal deaths in that period = 79,300, so 189 = 0.24% increase in deaths.

      Normal flu season deaths in the range 1,500 – 4,000.

    • Robert Firth says:

      Only today I saw a CNN report on Dr Stella Immanuel and her work. They couldn’t fault her credentials or her track record of success. So they mocked her for being from Africa, called her a “witch doctor” and other names, and photoshopped her picture to make her look blacker than black. If you want to see systemic racism in action, look no further than the sneering white liars and presstitutes on CNN.

  43. Chrome Mags says:

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-doctor-warns-chronically-ill-patients-young-people-take-covid-19-seriously/

    I know a lot of people have been led to assert that someone is either a case with little or no symptoms or tiny percentage die, or you don’t get it, i.e. covid-19, however here’s an article warning young people to take the virus seriously.

    “However, recent studies have shown that even when patients survive the coronavirus — which most do — the disease can have long-lasting effects such as brain and heart damage that could take months or longer to recover from. “I am very worried about a new generation of chronically ill patients,” Kass said.

    She recalled treating coronavirus patients who at first “look totally fine” until lab tests show “they are basically on fire on the inside.”

    “Their heart, their lungs, their blood vessels, you know, their kidneys, it really does affect all the organs,” Kass explained. “There will be evidence of this having really detrimental effects on the body.”

    “One recent study from the U.K. found troubling signs of “brain complications” in severe coronavirus patients — and while the complications were more likely to result in a stroke in older people, younger people also showed signs of confusion and newly-diagnosed psychiatric conditions.”

    “A number of recent studies have found the virus may cause an acute inflammatory response in the heart, increased blood clotting and cardiac problems.”

    “We see now, in the heart, that there may be long-standing effects of the inflammation and scarring that occurs after having this virus.”

    Please take a moment to read those potential symptoms above. It’s like rolling the dice getting this virus.

    • Do we have an alternative? That is the big question.

      Does everything we do to try to push COVID-19 away have such a terribly negative impact on the economy that its impact indirectly kills more people (not necessarily the same people) instead?

      Are we kidding ourselves about a vaccine really being a solution? Will it only be a partial solution for a few rich people in a few rich countries?

      • Duncan Idaho says:

        Bingo!
        This is just the start comrades—
        Sit back, it is going to be a long ride, with many twists and turns.

    • Tim Groves says:

      It’s like rolling the dice living.

      I had an antibody test last week that revealed I am infected with the virus that causes chickenpox.

      Does this make me a chickenpox case?

      No, of course not.

      I had chickenpox over 50 years ago, recovered, and ever since I’ve been harboring the dreaded varicella zoster virus (VZV). One day if my immune system gets lazy, I may develop shingles as a result.

      If you test positive for COVID-19 through a PCR or an antibody test, does that mean you are a COVID-19 case?

      Officially, yes.

      Does it matter if you have developed no symptoms and your immune system successfully thought off the dreaded the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)?

      Does it matter if you have a 90% chance of developing zero symptoms and that in any case you can be easily cured with hydroxychloroquine and zinc.

      Not at all. You are still officially a covid case and you should be afraid—very afraid, and you should wear a mask and you should have the word COVID-19 branded on your forehead.

    • Robert Firth says:

      Authored by “Dr. Dara Kass, an ER doctor and Yahoo News medical contributor, …”

      Yes, the same Yahoo that censors all news about the virus that is not likely to induce panic.

    • Xabier says:

      ‘Basically on fire on the inside’ is irresponsible and unprofessional language. It is also meaningless.

      This can only serve to induce panic and even terror when the greatest need is to keep out heads over this issue.

      Rather interesting stats coming out if India: 50% of slum dwellers estimated to have had COVID, and they haven’t been dying like flies as many expected they would, due to their poverty, over-crowding and lack of advanced medical services.

      While we are being encourage to tremble like jellies and to think it’s all over unless a vaccine arrives, and govts continue to inflict terrible and one suspects irreversible damage on economies through continued and probably unjustifiable lock-downs.

      • Tim Groves says:

        I have an Indian friend who quit seriously swears that the reason Indians are relatively immune to COVID is because they eat an awful amount of curries. But it could just be that they have so many germs in circulation that everyone’s immune system is as strong as Conan the Barbarian.

        • They are always close to each other, because there are so many people. This keeps the immune systems operating well. There are a number of studies showing that church attendance is positively correlated with increased longevity. There is also evidence that they same people who attend church regularly tend to socialize much more with friends. Somehow, this seems to work very well for the immune system. But modelers leave this out.

        • Harry McGibbs says:

          Turmeric and capsaicin are supposed to have anti-viral properties, so perhaps that plays a role.

    • Lidia17 says:

      ” younger people also showed signs of confusion and newly-diagnosed psychiatric conditions.”

      I’d think you’d be hard-pressed to find ANYbody without those signs, these days.

  44. Kim says:

    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/micaelaburrow/2020/07/28/redfield-says-more-abovebase-suicides-than-covid-deaths-n2573278

    “Center for Disease Control Director Robert Redfield testified in a Buck Institute webinar that suicides and drug overdoses have surpassed the death rate for COVID-19. Redfield argued that lockdowns and lack of public schooling constituted a disproportionally negative impact on young peoples’ mental health.

    “We’re seeing, sadly, far greater suicides now than we are deaths from COVID. We’re seeing far greater deaths from drug overdose that are above excess that we had as background than we are seeing the deaths from COVID,” he said.”

    So, it’s all going according to plan, right?

    As they say, too stupid to be stupid.

    • I am wondering if Redfield means is that for some age group (say, 15 – 50 year olds) the number of suicide and drug overdose deaths is exceeding the number of COVID-19 deaths.

      People within the CDC seem to be able to pull off extracts of data, long before the data is fully complete. There was an interesting report showing that the number of deaths of infants had fallen during the lockdown. It was almost as if the lack of immunizations had stopped some major cause of death, such as Sudden Infant Death Syndrome.

      • Kim says:

        “It was almost as if the lack of immunizations had stopped some major cause of death, such as Sudden Infant Death Syndrome.”

        Ha ha ha. Imagine my surprise if that were found to be so.

        • GP says:

          ““It was almost as if the lack of immunizations had stopped some major cause of death, such as Sudden Infant Death Syndrome.”

          Ha ha ha. Imagine my surprise if that were found to be so.”

          On the other hand others have postulated that the disproportionately low apparent effect of the virus on younger age groups seem to be aligned with the generations that have been receiving multiple vaccinations for a variety of severe and possibly deadly illnesses that have previously plagued the world but are now much reduced and considered to be “under control”.

          It seems that there is much yet to be discussed and understood. If understanding is indeed possible.

      • fred_goes_bush says:

        There was a study in Egypt a few years ago on infant mortality.

        Quite by accident, because it would never be allowed as an official study point, the data showed kids following the vaccination schedule had a 4x greater risk of death from all causes vs non-vaccinated kids.

        Oops!

        i thought I’d saved the report on my PC, but I can’t find it now.

  45. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    Saw this on YouTube of Jerome Powell…the most powerful man in the world to save the day

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wV23zMSLPkc

    And he has some help to do it! The Sheeple must be saved from the wolf wolf virus

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GgKgk3–bf0

    Well, the Fed had to inflate the debt away…..

    • Dan says:

      I wonder what the clearing of the throat many times is? Is he really nervous or is it that he has no idea what he is doing and is trying so hard to pretend that he has all of this under control.

      • Herbie Ficklestein says:

        From clips I’ve seen, he’s putting the best face on a dismal, damn if I do and damned if I don’t situation. Obviously, in good conscious the Fed is giving fair warning to all on what’s up
        WHATS UPp
        https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cpKHCn4wDp0

        So, the tax that will had will be in depreciating currency, same as it ever was.
        Yes, I agree, he looks uncomfortable and pensive and knows he’s walking on eggshells. The once powerful US Federal Reverse is losing its status as the only game in town.
        Never thought in my lifetime the Chairman would come out and say what he just said about future 😂 actions?
        Oh, it’s so bad the CEO came out and afmitted

        JetBlue CEO warns of ‘day of reckoning’ for airlines as coronavirus continues to devastate demand
        PUBLISHED WED, JUL 29 2020 1:15 PM EDT

        Yep, the day of reckoning is coming to us all, Brother
        Oh, almost forgot..Got Precious Metals?
        Seems I read Pension funds and Institutional investment firms are adding them to their mix, wonder why?

  46. kesar says:

    Even dendrologist’s view on the collapse is quite similar… a bit too long, I suppose, but close.

    https://futurism.com/the-byte/physicists-90-percent-chance-civilization-collapse

    • The theory is based on deforestation. Perhaps current society could end in 20 to 40 years.

      Yes, there are a lot of different way our economy could end. If deforestation were the only one, it might be 20 to 40 years away.

    • covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “So the most effective way to increase our chances of survival is to shift focus from extreme self-interest to a sense of stewardship for each other, other species, and the ecosystems in which we find ourselves.”

      so then there’s no chance.

      • Rodster says:

        One of Chris Martenson’s better quoptes was: “If humans are given the choice, they are wired to always take the easy way out.”

      • Hide-away says:

        Build a dyson sphere around the sun??
        They talk about this in the same article as deforestation, talk about clueless. They obviously do not have a clue about resources, especially the resources needed to put a dyson sphere around the sun. Firstly there would be no Earth as we would have totally consumed every molecule before we had built the sphere a fraction of the way around the sun, so where would we be living??

        Time for Keith to weigh in…

        • hkeithhenson says:

          > Build a dyson sphere around the sun??
          They talk about this in the same article as deforestation, talk about clueless. They obviously do not have a clue about resources, especially the resources needed to put a dyson sphere around the sun. Firstly there would be no Earth as we would have totally consumed every molecule before we had built the sphere a fraction of the way around the sun, so where would we be living??

          > Time for Keith to weigh in…

          Dyson spheres look to be unlikely due to both material limits and the fact they can’t be in orbit. Many years ago, though, Eric Drexler and I proposed surrounding a star with a hemisphere of light sails. They would be floating in light pressure, coupled to the star by gravity but not in orbit. Why would people do something like this? It’s a way to move a star, the whole thing is a fusion-photon rocket. It’s a way to travel and stay home. It is not much for performance, but over the typical lifetime of a G type star, it could travel between galaxies. You can also warm up an M type star so it looks like a G if you want.

          A much smaller project is known as Dyson Dots. They are a way to adjust the sunlight reaching earth by very large sunlight blockers in Earth-Sun L1. That project is probably out of range for a planet-bound civilization, but not for a space-based one.

          • Robert Firth says:

            Unfortunately the L1 point is unstable. A “sun blocker” there would be pushed off by light pressure, and fall back to Earth. Not a good outcome. Only the L4 and L5 (“Trojan”) points are stable.

            • hkeithhenson says:

              > Unfortunately the L1 point is unstable.

              That’s true, but it takes relatively little station-keeping fuel to stay there.

              > A “sun blocker” there would be pushed off by light pressure, and fall back to Earth.

              The JBIS paper which discusses “Dyson Dots” deals with these problems. I believe they placed the sunshade inside L1 to compensate for the light pressure. (Nine newtons per square km.)

              > Not a good outcome. Only the L4 and L5 (“Trojan”) points are stable.

              True, but the other points are useful.

              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lagrangian_point#Sun%E2%80%93Earth

              ” Sun–Earth L1 is suited for making observations of the Sun–Earth system. Objects here are never shadowed by Earth or the Moon and, if observing Earth, always view the sunlit hemisphere. The first mission of this type was the 1978 International Sun Earth Explorer 3 (ISEE-3) mission used as an interplanetary early warning storm monitor for solar disturbances.[21] Since June 2015, DSCOVR has orbited the L1 point. Conversely it is also useful for space-based solar telescopes, because it provides an uninterrupted view of the Sun and any space weather (including the solar wind and coronal mass ejections) reaches L1 a few hours before Earth. Solar telescopes currently located around L1 include the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and Advanced Composition Explorer. ”

              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L5_Society

              Having founded the L5 Society, I know a bit about Lagrangian points.

            • Robert Firth says:

              For hkeithhenson:

              Thank you for your detailed comments. And congratulations on being a founder of the L5 society, an organisation I greatly admire. On the L1 problem: yes, it takes only a small amount of effort to maintain an artefact there; but the problem is exactly how to apply that force. Whither is it drifting? And in full sunlight and full earthlight, can we observe well enough to estimate the direction and velocity of the perturbation? I believe so, but doubt it would be easy; and one meteor could take out the requisite sensors. Once again, this proposal seems to be working against Nature, not with her. But if you disagree, I shall defer to your far broader expertise.

            • hkeithhenson says:

              > can we observe well enough to estimate the direction and velocity of the perturbation?

              Yes. This is called “station keeping” and it is highly developed. It’s the way the satellite operators keep all the GEO communication satellites where they belong.

              Still, it is not obvious to me that humans will build space colonies at L4 and L5, or for that matter anywhere at all. For speed of light reasons and cooling, civilization might be sunk in the deep ocean.

              There does not seem to be any physical reasons people could not go off across the galaxy. The main problem would be getting far out of step with those who stayed behind, particularly if you are slowing your perception to get subjectively shorter trips.

            • Robert Firth says:

              Keith, I suspect you are here comparing apples to oranges. GPS satellites are already in stable orbits, so it needs only a small force on a known vector to adjust their orbits. An object at L1 has no stable orbit, so the problem of keeping it on station seems rather harder to resolve. And, of course, it has never actually been done.

            • hkeithhenson says:

              > Keith, I suspect you are here comparing apples to oranges. GPS satellites are already in stable orbits, so it needs only a small force on a known vector to adjust their orbits.

              From memory, it’s about 50 m/s per year to keep a GEO communication satellite in place.

              > An object at L1 has no stable orbit, so the problem of keeping it on station seems rather harder to resolve. And, of course, it has never actually been done.

              Actually, it has. I posted a pointer to the Wikipedia article which mentioned there are three spacecraft currently in the Earth/Sun L1 orbit. And the Chinese have a communication relay satellite in the Earth/Moon L2. The James Webb Space Telescope is destined for the Earth/Sun L2.

              The most interesting use of Earth/Moon L1 is a lunar elevator going out through L1. Needs no station keeping at all. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerome_Pearson https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_space_elevator A lunar elevator has not been built yet, but Spectra cable looks like it will do the job.

          • Tim Groves says:

            If a Dyson sphere is a non-starter, at least the old man’s namesake has given us some very SF-ish looking vacuum cleaners.

            Keith, given the limited amount of interplanetary matter available in our solar system, how would you feel about a Larry Niven-style Ringworld or something more modest?

            • hkeithhenson says:

              I knew Freeman for many years and am still in contact with his daughter Esther. I don’t know how (if at all) they are related to the Vacuum cleaner Dysons. One of my GG grandmothers was Mary Virginia Dyson.

              Re Ringworlds, one of the cool things you can get out of the net is finding where you commented on something a long time ago, in this case, 30 years ago

              https://www.cs.cmu.edu/afs/cs/usr/mnr/st/std076

              LITTLE RINGWORLDS

              Do we really need Larry Niven’s “scrith” to build ringworlds or can we get by with known, or at least projected materials? If you leave most of the structure non-spinning (or spinning retrograde very slowly) and support a much lighter spinning part on superconducting magnetic bearings, O’Neill-type cylinders can be built large enough to house a continent. I have my doubts about cooling such a thing because radiator mass per unit of radiation goes up as the square root of the absolute size of a radiator. Giant O’Neill cylinders are not a particularly efficient use of mass to get living area. But, as Eric Drexler pointed out, there is an even _less_ elegant way to build one-g ringworlds. You spin a ringworld supported by bearings, pile all the non-spinning mass on the outside, and let the star’s gravity acting on the mass keep the ringworld from flying apart.

            • Norman Pagett says:

              this forum was better when the main debate was about the precise width of the flat earth

            • Tim Groves says:

              Thanks Keith!!

              Norman, there are things going on in your imagination that the normies around you can’t comprehend or see the point of bothering to try, which is why when you attempt to explain some of your excellent ideas, their eyes glass over. “The End of More is such a bore,” they say; “give us no more of the end of more.”

              It’s much the same with Keith’s excellent ideas, most of which are imaginings or thought experiments that have not been realized in the material world as far as we can tell. All the best new ideas are bound to sound off the wall to the great mass of normies, because the minds normies are bounded by the conventional wisdom and lost in the fog of illusion and consensus trance.

              This next poem is taken from Sonnets and Verse, put together almost a century ago by Hillarie Belloc.

              NEWDIGATE POEM

              A PRIZE POEM SUBMITTED BY MR LAMBKIN, THEN SCHOLAR AND LATER FELLOW OF BURFORD COLLEGE, TO THE EXAMINERS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD ON THE PRESCRIBED POETIC THEME SET BY THEM IN 1893, “THE BENEFITS OF THE ELECTRIC LIGHT”

              Hail, Happy Muse, and touch the tuneful string!
              The benefits conferred by Science I sing.
              Under the kind Examiners’ direction
              I only write about them in connection
              With benefits which the Electric Light
              Confers on us; especially at night.
              These are my theme, of these my song shall rise.
              My lofty head shall swell to strike the skies.
              And tears of hopeless love bedew the maiden’s eyes.
              Descend, O Muse, from thy divine abode,
              To Osney, on the Seven Bridges Road;
              For under Osney’s solitary shade
              The bulk of the Electric Light is made.
              Here are the works;—from hence the current flows
              Which (so the Company’s prospectus goes)
              Can furnish to Subscribers hour by hour
              No less than sixteen thousand candle power,
              All at a thousand volts. (It is essential
              To keep the current at this high potential
              In spite of the considerable expense.)
              The Energy developed represents,
              Expressed in foot-tons, the united forces
              Of fifteen elephants and forty horses.
              But shall my scientific detail thus
              Clip the dear wings of Buoyant Pegasus?
              Shall pure statistics jar upon the ear
              That pants for Lyric accents loud and clear?
              Shall I describe the complex Dynamo
              Or write about its Commutator? No!
              To happier fields I lead my wanton pen,
              The proper study of mankind is men.
              Awake, my Muse! Portray the pleasing sight
              That meets us where they make Electric Light.
              Behold the Electrician where he stands:
              Soot, oil, and verdigris are on his hands;
              Large spots of grease defile his dirty clothes,
              The while his conversation drips with oaths.
              Shall such a being perish in its youth?
              Alas! it is indeed the fatal truth.
              In that dull brain, beneath that hair unkempt,
              Familiarity has bred contempt.
              We warn him of the gesture all too late:
              Oh, Heartless Jove! Oh, Adamantine Fate!
              A random touch—a hand’s imprudent slip—
              The Terminals—a flash—a sound like “Zip!”
              A smell of burning fills the started Air—
              The Electrician is no longer there!
              But let us turn with true Artistic scorn
              From facts funereal and from views forlorn
              Of Erebus and Blackest midnight born.
              Arouse thee, Muse! and chaunt in accents rich
              The interesting processes by which
              The Electricity is passed along:
              These are my theme: to these I bend my song.
              It runs encased in wood or porous brick
              Through copper wires two millimetres thick,
              And insulated on their dangerous mission
              By indiarubber, silk, or composition.
              Here you may put with critical felicity
              The following question: “What is Electricity?”
              “Molecular Activity,” say some,
              Others when asked say nothing, and are dumb.
              Whatever be its nature, this is clear:
              The rapid current checked in its career,
              Baulked in its race and halted in its course[J]
              Transforms to heat and light its latent force:
              It needs no pedant in the lecturer’s chair
              To prove that light and heat are present there.
              The pear-shaped vacuum globe, I understand,
              Is far too hot to fondle with the hand.
              While, as is patent to the meanest sight,
              The carbon filament is very bright.
              As for the lights they hang about the town,
              Some praise them highly, others run them down.
              This system (technically called the Arc),
              Makes some passages too light, others too dark.
              But in the house the soft and constant rays
              Have always met with universal praise.
              For instance: if you want to read in bed
              No candle burns beside your curtain’s head,
              Far from some distant corner of the room
              The incandescent lamp dispels the gloom,
              And with the largest print need hardly try
              The powers of any young and vigorous eye.
              Aroint thee, Muse! Inspired the poet sings!
              I cannot help observing future things!
              Life is a vale, its paths are dark and rough
              Only because we do not know enough:
              When Science has discovered something more
              We shall be happier than we were before.
              Hail, Britain, Mistress of the Azure Main,
              Ten thousand Fleets sweep over thee in vain!
              Hail, Mighty Mother of the Brave and Free,
              That beat Napoleon, and gave birth to me!
              Thou that canst wrap in thine emblazoned robe
              One quarter of the habitable globe.
              Thy mountains, wafted by a favouring breeze,
              Like mighty rocks withstand the stormy seas.
              Thou art a Christian Commonwealth; and yet
              Be thou not all unthankful—nor forget
              As thou exultest in Imperial Might
              The Benefits of the Electric Light.

            • Norman Pagett says:

              repetition of words, as i used to point out to FE, is the hallmark of the bar-propper

              who

              pint in one hand, and the other formed into a pointy finger, fills his vacant spaces with hoaxes, plots and conspiracies, and is wont to dispense them to all who have not had the immediate foresight to leave before he gets started on his latest theories.

              And I would grant HK the intelligence to state his own case against me if he was interested enough to do so.

              which

              as we diverge so radically, he probably isn’t.

              originality is all.

            • hkeithhenson says:

              > And I would grant HK the intelligence to state his own case against me if he was interested enough to do so.

              which

              as we diverge so radically, he probably isn’t.

              Not sure what you want.

              My main objection to stuff that gets posted on OFW is people being certain they know how the future will turn out. If we spotted a big asteroid headed our way, then ok, the laws of orbital mechanics make the future certain, baring human efforts to divert the asteroid.

              But things like nanotechnology/AI or power satellites are not certain, especially in timing. Even less so is how humans might respond. I have studied this since the 1970s and I don’t know how things will turn out.

              A relatively minor complaint is people posting things that are just wrong, and would take less than a minute to search with Google or find on Wikipedia. Ghod knows we have enough problems even when we get things as accurate as we can.

            • hkeithhenson says:

              > It’s much the same with Keith’s excellent ideas,

              It’s worth pointing out that I originated very few of the ideas I mention. It’s one of my characteristics (or faults) that I am meticulous about giving credit where due–at least in writing.

              Heh, heh. My brother read the Heinlein novels when he was in college. I had read them in junior high and they were a source of many ideas I talked about. I remember him commenting one time that after reading them that he realized I wasn’t so smart, just had read a lot.

    • Robert Firth says:

      Yawn. There is 100% probability our civilisation will collapse, sometime. There is 100% probability we will become extinct, sometime. The truth is, nobody knows when, certainly not a bunch of theoretical physicists. Their physics isn’t too good either: at one point in their report they suggest building a Dyson Sphere to capture more solar energy. Simple Newtonian physics tells you that such a sphere has no stable orbit: in other words, it would crash into the Sun.

  47. Chrome Mags says:

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/28/europe/russia-coronavirus-vaccine-approval-intl/index.html

    ‘Exclusive: Russia claims it’s on track to approve Covid-19 vaccine by mid-August. But speed of process raises questions’

    “While some global vaccines are in the third phase of trials, the Russian vaccine is yet to complete its second phase. Developers plan to complete that phase by August 3, and then conduct the third phase of testing in parallel with the vaccination of the medical workers.”

    This is fascinating because the Russian vaccine’s phase II testing will only be complete on Aug. 3rd and then they will begin phase III testing. So even before having phase III test results they will begin inoculating healthcare workers with the vaccine.

    Also, there are no phase I & II Russian test results available to the public. So no one knows what type of adverse reactions or how severe they may have been.

    In this regard Russia is no further ahead than Moderna, Astra-Zeneca & China’s vaccine, which are also ready to begin phase III testing. So this is not a Sputnik moment, but rather a jump to the front of the line BEFORE taking the major step of phase III testing, while comically claiming it’s a Sputnik moment.

    I wonder if the US will offer billions for this vaccine too?

    • Rodster says:

      I wonder how many guinea pigs will take it unless it’s made mandatory by the Federal Gov’t. If it does happen this is nothing more than medical tyranny and it needs to be opposed on all levels. I know I won’t volunteer until I’m forcibly strapped down on a gurney.

      This whole Covid 19 BS has been played to the benefit of centralized government. They won’t stop the fear and hysteria until people are begging for injections whether they work or not, safe or not. And that’s what Bill Gates and other Globalists are hoping for.

      • Duncan Idaho says:

        Hint:
        “despite the devastating burden that COVID-19 has imposed so far, most of the world is still susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Most countries have yet to see sufficient depletion of susceptibility to meaningfully reduce infection spread, but such effects are likely to shape the future. Models projecting into this future have evaluated policy scenarios and assessed the potential impact of seasonal variation in transmission . Notably, the immunological details on which these models rely (duration of immunity, whether immunity blocks transmission or prevents disease after infection, etc.) remain unclear. Models are one tool among many for tackling the pandemic, but they are perhaps the best framework for grappling with these possible futures.”

        • I would hope that the model would also include the economic damage done by various types of attempts to control COVID-19. I think that this is what has been left out. Also, if more effort is put into controlling COVID-19, the less medical resources can be used to fight other illnesses, such as TB, malaria, and cancer.

          We find ourselves with all of the recommendations being made by people who are clueless about how the overall system works. Epidemiologists seem to think that we have such an advanced medical system today, we can solve any medical problem. That isn’t really true. A problem can require too many resources sucked from other segments of the economy to really be fixable. We can’t be giving everyone $100+ COVID tests, practically every day, without sinking the economy (as an extreme example).

          • Duncan Idaho says:

            “Also, if more effort is put into controlling COVID-19, the less medical resources can be used to fight other illnesses, such as TB, malaria, and cancer.”

            Capitalism?
            I think you understand the dynamics.

          • GP says:

            ” A problem can require too many resources sucked from other segments of the economy to really be fixable. We can’t be giving everyone $100+ COVID tests, practically every day, without sinking the economy (as an extreme example).”

            Talking to a friend yesterday he mentioned that his wife has developed a “bad back” and was advised an MRI scan was required but she was unbale to book one via the UK NHS for some reason. Likely Covid related.

            So they paid to go privately. He is well into the retirement age group though you would think him perhaps 10 years younger than his age. She is somewhat younger but still in the retirement age group and still very active.

            Today I heard, via one of my daughters, about the father of a friend of hers who had skin cancer some years ago (successfully treated) but is now seeing a recurrence. He has been offered and assessment appointment and biopsy with an 18 month wait. By which time he may well have succumbed.

            It seems that resources are on hold “just in case” there is a dramatic resurgence of the virus combined with winter flu.

            When our Prime Minister touted the Slogan “Save our NHS” and started his campaign of sound bites to which so many seemed to subscribe and follow the lockdown instruction avidly (except himself some of his own family.) I suspect they had in mind the fast return of “normal” Medical services rather then their partial suspension.

            • Robert Firth says:

              GP, outrageously long waiting times, endless runarounds, denial of service, and sheer incompetence *are* normal for the UK National Health Service.

            • GP says:

              “GP, outrageously long waiting times, endless runarounds, denial of service, and sheer incompetence *are* normal for the UK National Health Service.”

              A&E yes.

              Not so much in recent years for other services – depending on local circumstances.

              Effectiveness is another matter …

        • Rodster says:

          ““despite the devastating burden that COVID-19 has imposed so far, most of the world is still susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection. ”

          Hint: the world is still susceptible to “Death”. Covid 19 is just another way the Grim Reaper gets to visit you.

        • JesseJames says:

          “Models are one tool among many for tackling the pandemic, but they are perhaps the best framework for grappling with these possible futures.”

          “Models projecting into this future have evaluated policy scenarios and assessed the potential impact of seasonal variation in transmission.”

          Models can be worthless. The original models of infection and death rates were worthless. What a bunch of gobbledegook.

          Duncan…I just LUV your hints.

  48. Rodster says:

    Latest article by JMG and it’s a good read whether you agree with him or not: “The Arc Of Our Future”

    https://www.ecosophia.net/the-arc-of-our-future/

    • covidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      yes, a good read.

      he doesn’t seem up to speed on where the economy is, and I suspect that is due to the dozen or so novels he has written in the past 5 years taking up much of his time. He’s 58, gotta start thinking about retirement funds, and perhaps getting his book series produced by the HBO or Netflix types.

      so he still has the weak idea that oil prices will be rising.

      otherwise, the ideas about the bloated administrative jobs are good reading. In a way, this is along the lines of the idea of non-essential subsystems shrinking or being eliminated by the resetting self-organizing shrinking economy.

      he does tend to repeat one other weak idea. He states that all previous civilizations have had a Long Descent of stairstep declines, and thus our globally networked high tech IC must also follow the same pattern.

      it could, it might, but it is not a MUST that IC declines gradually. It could collapse swiftly, so he is a bit illllogical in insisting that it must decline gradually.

      I would grade the article as B- or C+.

      • Lidia17 says:

        I agree, covid.. Has he ever addressed the 450+ nuke plant thing?

        • Rodster says:

          He has when he was blogging on the Arch Druid Report and according to him it’s not the end of the world as it will have a more localized effect. I can’t say I agree with him but that’s his view on NPP’s.

        • Xabier says:

          Yes, he minimizes the nuclear issue as leading only to some clearly known dead zones here and there, nothing more. Phew, what a relief!

          His pose as an infallible guide and seer leads him in to all kinds of absurdities, which is unfortunate as he does make some good points in some areas.

          ‘Collapse now and avoid the rush’ is his favourite mantra, which makes little sense as one has to live within the current paradigm almost entirely in order to survive.

          ‘Reduce your vulnerabilities to disruptions as much as possible’ would make more sense, but isn’t so catchy.

          It’s notable that he has given up on growing food himself -‘Green Wizardry’ – as it is better for him to be in a cheap town and concentrate on writing, which pays his bills and taxes.

          Now he likes to say that Green Wizardry wasn’t really about self-sufficiency, that is ‘a shallow interpretation’ of what he meant…..

          It’s never worth while entering into debate with him. although he is becoming a little more tolerant of questioning.

      • nikoB says:

        Personally I find that JMG, Orlov and Martensen are not worth reading anymore, which is a pity as I used to really enjoy them. The agendas they now push are not in touch with reality.

      • Robert Firth says:

        “He states that all previous civilizations have had a Long Descent.”

        That is simply not true. Just from memory: Minoan, Carthaginian, Babylonian, Classic Mayan, Maurya, and, of course, Byzantine.

        • ElbowWilham says:

          Pretty sure you are proving JMG’s point as those societies collapsed over 100+ years, in stages.

          • Robert Firth says:

            A good point. I would not consider 100 years a “long descent”; it is less than two human lifetimes. But on this point, I am happy to agree to differ.

    • fred_goes_bush says:

      Economically, so far COVID-time is a re-run of the GFC except worse. More self-inflicted damage, more blatant free money to the 1%, more random, idiotic bureaucratic edicts etc.

      A big underlying issue along with energy is the ageing population. 2 points:
      1. We don’t/won’t have enough working age people vs the elderly.
      2. The innately more fearful thinking process of the elderly drives a fearful, knee jerk society. Hence the overreaction to COVID.

      See: https://econimica.blogspot.com/2019/10/america-2020-through-2040the-era-of-80.html

      But we’re still (capable of) cranking out 80M+-ish barrels of oil per day, so a lot of stuff can happen and eventually self preservation will drive behaviour to get essential things done. We’ll muddle through with people and living standards dropping off along the way.

      So I side with JMG, except the LTG decline graph is really a series of step downs, like this COVID one. Looks smooth from a distance though.

      • Kim says:

        1. We don’t/won’t have enough working age people vs the elderly.

        The dependency of th eelderly is far from being the biggest problem, as they will soon pass. A much bigger probelm is the vast number of young people and people who are still being born who by nature or nurture are 100% dependents/takers/destroyers in a modern (such as it is) society.