Today’s energy predicament is a strange situation that most modelers have never really considered. Let me explain some of the issues I see, using some charts.
[1] It is probably not possible to reduce current energy consumption by 80% or more without dramatically reducing population.
A glance at energy consumption per capita for a few countries suggests that cold countries tend to use a lot more energy per person than warm, wet countries.
Figure 1. Energy consumption per capita in 2019 in selected countries based on data from BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy.
This shouldn’t be a big surprise: Our predecessors in Africa didn’t need much energy. But as humans moved to colder areas, they needed extra warmth, and this required extra energy. The extra energy today is used to build sturdier homes and vehicles, to heat and operate those homes and vehicles, and to build the factories, roads and other structures needed to keep the whole operation going.
Saudi Arabia (not shown on Figure 1) is an example of a hot, dry country that uses a lot of energy. Its energy consumption per capita in 2019 (322 GJ per capita) was very close to that of Norway. It needs to keep its population cool, besides running its large oil operation.
If the entire world population could adopt the lifestyle of Bangladesh or India, we could indeed get our energy consumption down to a very low level. But this is difficult to do when the climate doesn’t cooperate. This means that if energy usage needs to fall dramatically, population will probably need to fall in areas where heating or air conditioning are essential for living.
[2] Many people think that “running out” of oil supplies should be our big worry. I believe that lack of the “demand” needed to keep oil and other energy prices up should be at least as big a worry.
The events of 2020 have shown us that a reduction in energy demand can occur very quickly, in ways we would not expect.
Oil demand can fall from less international trade, from fewer international air flights, and from fewer trips by commuters. Demand for electricity (made mostly with coal or natural gas) is likely to fall if fewer buildings are occupied. This will happen if universities offer courses only online, if nursing homes close for lack of residents who want to live there, or if young people move back with their parents for lack of jobs.
In some ways, the word “appetite” might be a better word than “demand.” Either high or low appetite can be a problem for people. People with excessive appetite tend to get fat; people with low appetite (perhaps as a side-effect of depression or of cancer treatments) can become frail.
Similarly, either high or low energy appetite can also be a problem for an economy. High appetite leads to high oil prices, as occurred back in 2008. These are distressing to oil consumers. Low appetite tends to lead to low energy prices. These are distressing to energy producers. They may cut back on production, as OPEC nations have done in the recent past, in an attempt to get prices back up. Some energy producers may file for bankruptcy.
Figure 2. Weekly average spot oil prices for Brent, based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.
Just as people can die from indirect effects of too little appetite, an economy can fail if it cannot keep its energy prices (appetite) up. In fact, an economy will probably collapse quite quickly if it cannot keep oil and other energy prices up. The cost of mining or otherwise extracting energy supplies tends to increase over time because the cheapest, easiest-to-extract supplies are taken first. The selling price of energy products needs to keep rising as well, in order for producers to be able to make a profit and, therefore, be able to continue production.
We know that historically, many economies have collapsed. Revelation 18:11-13 tells us that in the case of the collapse of ancient Babylon, the problem at the time of collapse was inadequate demand for the goods produced. There was not even demand for slaves, which was the type of energy available for purchase at that time. This lack of demand (or low appetite) is similar to the low oil price problem we are encountering today.
[3] The big reduction in energy appetite since mid-2008 has particularly affected the US, EU, and Japan.
We would expect lower energy prices to eventually lead to a decline in energy production because producers will find production unprofitable. On a world basis, however, we don’t see this pattern occurring except during the Great Recession itself (Figure 3).
Figure 3. World per capita energy consumption, based on data from BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy. On a worldwide basis, energy production and consumption are virtually identical because storage is small compared to production and consumption.
Note that in Figure 3, energy consumption is on a “per capita” basis. This is because energy is required for making goods and services; the higher the population, the greater the quantity of goods and services required to maintain a given standard of living. If energy consumption per capita is rising, there is a good chance that living standards are rising.
The countries of the US, EU, and Japan have not been very successful in keeping their energy consumption per capita level since the big drop in oil prices in mid-2008.
Figure 4. Per capita energy consumption for the US, EU, and Japan, based on data from BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy.
The falling per capita energy consumption for the US, EU, and Japan is what one would expect if economic conditions were getting worse in these countries. For example, this pattern might be expected if young people are having difficulty finding jobs that pay well. It might also happen if repayment of debt starts interfering with young people being able to buy homes and cars. When fewer goods of these types are purchased, less energy consumption per capita is required.
The pattern of falling energy consumption per capita cannot continue for long without reaching a breaking point because people with low wages (or no jobs at all) will become more and more distressed. In fact, we started seeing an increasing number of demonstrations related to low wage levels, low pension levels, and lack of government services starting in 2019. This problem has only gotten worse with layoffs related to the pandemic in 2020. These layoffs corresponded to substantial further reduction in energy consumption per capita.
[4] China, India, and Vietnam are examples of countries whose energy consumption per capita has risen in recent years.
Not all countries have done as poorly as the major economies in recent years:
Figure 5. Some examples of countries with rising energy consumption per capita, based on data from BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy.
These Asian countries could outcompete the US, EU, and Japan in several ways:
- Big undeveloped coal reserves. These resources could be used as an inexpensive fuel to compete with countries that had depleted their own coal resources. Coal tends to be less expensive than other types of energy, especially if pollution problems are ignored.
- Warmer climate, so these countries did not need much fuel for heating. Even Southern China does not heat its buildings in winter.
- Pollution was generally ignored.
- New, more efficient factories could be built.
- Lower wages because of
- Milder climate
- Inexpensive fuel supply
- Lower medical costs
- Lower standard of living
The developed economies were concerned about reducing their own CO2 emissions. Moving heavy industry to these Asian nations meant that the developed economies could benefit in three ways:
- Their own CO2 emissions would fall, whether or not world emissions fell.
- Pollution problems would be moved offshore.
- The cost of finished goods for consumers would be lower.
Moving heavy industry to these and other Asian countries meant the loss of jobs that had paid fairly well in the US, Europe, and Japan. While new jobs replaced the old jobs, they generally did not pay as well, leading to the falling energy consumption per capita pattern seen in Figure 4.
[5] The growing Asian economies in Figure 5 are now reaching coal limits.
While these economies were built on coal reserves, these reserves are becoming depleted. All three of the countries shown in Figure 5 have become net coal importers.
Figure 6. Coal production versus consumption in 2019 for China, India and Vietnam based on data from BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy.
[6] World coal production has remained on a bumpy plateau since 2011, suggesting that its extraction is reaching limits. (Figure 7)
Figure 7. World energy consumption by type, based on data from BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy. “Renewables” represents renewables other than hydroelectricity. Total world consumption is approximately equal to total world production, since stored amounts are small.
Figure 8, below, shows that growth in China’s coal production was the major reason for the big rise in world coal consumption between 2002 and 2011. In fact, this rise in production started immediately after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001.
Figure 8. World coal production by country based on data from BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy.
China’s rapid growth in coal production stopped in 2011. The problem was that extraction from an increasing share of coal mines became unprofitable: The cost of extraction rose but coal prices did not rise to match these higher costs. China could build new mines in locations more distant from where the coal was to be used, but transportation costs would tend to make this coal higher-cost as well. China could increase its coal consumption by importing coal, but that would also be more expensive.
Figure 9. Coal production for selected areas based on data from BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy.
In Figure 9, above, we see how dramatically higher China’s coal production has been, in comparison to coal production in other areas of the world. After China’s coal production stalled about 2011, it bounced back in 2018 and 2019 as the country opened mines in the north of the country, farther from industrial use.
Figure 9 indicates that the US’s coal production was on a long plateau between 1990 and 2008; more recently, the US’s production has fallen. Coal production for Europe was falling even before 1981, but the data available for this chart only goes back to 1981. Declining production again results from the cost of production rising above the prices producers could obtain from selling the coal.
Whether or not world coal production will increase in the future remains to be seen. Normally, a person would expect a long bumpy plateau in coal production, such as the world has experienced since 2011, to precede a fall in production. This would be similar to the pattern observed in the US’s coal production. This pattern would also be similar to the shape modeled by geophysicist M. King Hubbert for many types of resource production.
Figure 10. M. King Hubbert symmetric curve from Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels.
[7] World oil production through 2019 has continued upward in an amazingly steady pattern, despite low prices. Its major problem has been unprofitability for producers.
Figure 7 above shows the total amount of oil produced has continued upward in almost a straight line, except for a dip at the time of the Great Recession.
In fact, every person needs goods and services made with energy products. Rising energy consumption per capita will mean that, on average, every person is getting the benefit of more energy supplies. Figure 11 shows information similar to that on Figure 7, except on a per-capita basis.
Figure 11. World per capita energy consumption by type based on data from BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy. Total world consumption is approximately equal to total world production, since stored amounts are small.
Figure 11 indicates that on a per capita basis, oil supply has been approximately flat. In a way, this should not be surprising. Oil is absolutely essential in many ways. It is used for agriculture, transportation and construction. Oil is also used for its chemical properties in medicines, herbicides, pesticides, lubricants, and many other products. Oil is very energy dense and can be easily stored.
Because of its special properties, many people have assumed that oil prices will always rise. We saw in Figure 2 that this doesn’t actually happen. Low prices have continued for long enough now that they are becoming a serious problem for producers. Many companies are seeking bankruptcy. One analysis shows that 230 oil and gas producers and 214 oilfield services companies have filed for bankruptcy since 2015.
Oil exporters find their countries in financial difficulty, because at low prices, the taxes that they can collect are not sufficient to maintain the programs needed for their people. If the programs cannot be maintained, citizens may become unhappy and revolt.
At this point, oil production during 2020 is down. Figure 12 shows OPEC’s estimate of oil production through July 2020. World oil production is reported to be down about 12%. The highest month of supply was about November 2018.
Figure 12. OPEC and world oil production, in a chart made by OPEC, from the August 2020 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
Figure 13 shows oil production for selected areas of the world through 2019.
Figure 13. Oil production for selected areas of the world based on data from BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy. Europe includes Norway. Russia+ is the Commonwealth of Independent States.
Middle East production tends to bounce up and down. If prices are low, the tendency is to reduce production, as occurred in 2019.
US production rose rapidly between 2008 and 2019, but dipped in 2016, as prices dropped way too low.
Europe’s oil production (including Norway) reached its highest point in the year 2000. It has been declining since then, causing concern for governments.
The production of what I call Russia+ dropped with the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union in 1991. Oil prices had been very low between 1981 and 1991. It appears to me that these low prices were instrumental in the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union. Production was able to rise again in the early 2000s when prices rose. My concern now is that a similar collapse will happen for some oil exporters in the next few years, due to low prices, and it will lead to a major decline of world oil production.
[8] Natural gas is the fuel that seems to be available in abundant supply, if only the price could be made to rise to a high enough level for producers.
Natural gas production can be seen to be rising on both Figures 7 and 11. The fact that natural gas consumption is rising on a per capita basis in Figure 11 indicates that production is rising robustly–enough to offset weakness in coal production and perhaps help increase the world standard of living, to some extent.
We can see from Figure 14 below that the increase in natural gas production is coming from quite a number of different areas, including the US, Russia and its affiliates, the Middle East, and Australia. Again, Europe (including Norway) seems to be in decline.
Figure 14. Natural gas production for selected areas of the world based on data from BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy. Europe includes Norway. Russia+ is the Commonwealth of Independent States.
The problem for natural gas is again a price problem. It is difficult to get the price up to a high enough level to cover the cost of both the extraction of natural gas and the infrastructure and fuel needed to transport the natural gas to its destination.
We used to talk about “stranded natural gas,” that is, natural gas that can be extracted, but whose cost of transportation is simply too high to make the overall transaction economic. In fact, historically, a lot of natural gas has simply been burned off as a waste product (flared) or re-injected into oil wells, to keep up pressure, because there was no hope of selling it profitably at a distance. It is this formerly stranded natural gas that is now being produced.
Figure 15. Historical natural gas prices based on data from BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy. LNG is liquefied natural gas transported by ship. German imported natural gas is mostly by pipeline. US Henry Hub gas is natural gas without overseas transport costs included.
The increase in investment in natural gas production in recent years has been based on the hope that prices would rise high enough to cover both the cost of extraction and transportation. In fact, prices have tended to fall with crude oil prices, making the overall price far too low for most natural gas producers. Prices in 2020 have been even lower. For example, recent Japan LNG prices have been about $4 per million Btu. Thus, natural gas seems to have exactly the same problem as coal and oil: Prices are far too low for producers.
[9] The world economy is a self-organizing system, powered by energy. It can be expected to behave in a very strange way when diminishing returns become too much of a problem.
In the language of physics, the world economy is a dissipative structure. This has been known at least since 1996. The economy is a self-organizing system powered by energy; it is not possible to significantly reduce energy consumption without a major collapse.
The economy has many parts to it. I have illustrated the situation in the following way:
Figure 16. Chart I used in a talk given at a meeting of the Casualty Actuarial Society.
The fact that consumers are also employees means that if wages fall too low (for a significant share of the population), then consumption will also tend to fall too low.
Prices are set by the market. Contrary to the popular view, prices are not based primarily on scarcity. Instead, they are based on the quantity of finished goods and services that consumers in the aggregate can afford. If wage disparity gets to be too great a problem, commodity prices of all types will tend to fall too low.
[10] Economists and modelers of all kinds have completely misunderstood how the economy actually operates.
Our academic communities each seem to exist in separate ivory towers. Economists don’t talk to physicists. Physicists know that dissipative structures cannot last indefinitely. Humans are dissipative structures; they each have limited lifetimes. Hurricanes are also dissipative structures that last only a limited time.
Most economists and modelers have never considered the possibility that today’s economy, like that of ancient Babylon, could be reaching collapse because of low demand, and thus, low prices.
Economists don’t realize that once energy resources become too depleted, energy prices are not likely to rise high enough for producers to make a profit; instead, the overall system will tend to collapse. Central banks have been trying, without success, to get commodity prices up to the point where they can be profitable for producers, but they have not been successful to date. I am doubtful that even more new tricks, such as Universal Basic Income, will work, either.
The erroneous belief systems of most economists and modelers leads to all kinds of strange results. The economy is modeled as if it will grow indefinitely. Most modelers assume that if we have oil, coal, or natural gas in the ground, plus the technical capability to pull these resources out, we will eventually pull them out. Perhaps a later civilization, built on the remains of our current civilization, can do this, but our current civilization cannot.
Climate change models are applied to fossil fuel assumptions that are absurdly high, given the problems with low energy prices that we are currently encountering. No one stops to model what will happen to the climate if fossil fuel consumption is decreased very quickly, which seems to be a real possibility in 2020. The loss of aerosol emissions (smog, for example) from fossil fuels will tend to spike world temperatures, even with reduced CO2 emissions from fossil fuels.
We are led to believe that an economy similar to today’s economy can operate solely on renewables. This is simply absurd. Figures 7 and 11 show that there are nowhere near enough renewables to support today’s population, even if substitution were possible for fossil fuels. In fact, we need fossil fuels to make and maintain solar panels, wind turbines, electric transmission lines, hydroelectric plants, and nuclear power plants.
If we cannot keep fossil fuels operating because of continued low prices, today’s economy can expect a disturbing change for the worse.
Nice recent article: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0237672
Past world economic production constrains current energy demands: Persistent scaling with implications for economic growth and climate change mitigation
by Timothy J. Garrett , Matheus Grasselli, Stephen Keen
I haven’t had a chance to look at it yet.
is this a book or a post?
OK, I see it is an article posted, with a lot of math.
The journal this article is in is PLOS ONE. This is a journal with a liberal view of what it will publish. If the math and English meet its standards, it will publish the article, even if it falls outside the mainstream of what others in a particular field might believe to be true. The front page of the website says,
I can understand why the authors might have chosen to publish with this journal.
What this article says, in essence, is “Demand cannot fall, because there is not enough past investment in innovation to make it fall.” CO2 concentrations are likely to rise, exceeding 500 ppmv, regardless of what attempts we make to try to incorporate renewables and/or nuclear at this point.
The authors are right about not being able to fix the situation using renewables and nuclear. They don’t realize that the economic system can (and will) fix itself in ways their model doesn’t contemplate. Demand can fall because the system is reaching limits. Demand can fall because of COVID-19 shutdowns and because of inadequate buying power of the world population, due to too much wage disparity. We don’t know how the CO2 level will turn out, but most of us won’t be around to see the result.
https://pocket-syndicated-images.s3.amazonaws.com/5f105b214142d.jpg
The main result of both measures is to confirm that there was a marked slowdown in productivity growth when we compare the earlier period (1890–1970) to the latest period (1970–2014). Both series give a slowdown of 0.6 percentage points per year in productivity growth. The alternative estimate is that the growth in productivity slowed from 1.7 percent per year in the earlier period to 1.0 percent per year in the second period.
https://getpocket.com/explore/item/why-growth-will-fall?utm_source=pocket-newtab
The ECB paints an even bleaker picture. To give some context, labour productivity growth (PG) has gradually converged toward zero in all ‘mature’ economies since the 1970s. The downward trend was briefly interrupted in USA by ITC diffusion and has since recommenced. PG averaged just 0.5% per year in USA since 2011 according to ECB.
It may simply be the case that there is no new technology, that it is profitable to implement, to raise total factor productivity and PG. Also more expensive energy plays a role to undermine the profitability of investment. If so, then capitalism has hit its historical limits to develop the quality of the means of production.
Capitalist states now rely entirely on increased labour utilisation, more workers, to countervail diminished PG (and profitability) to maintain GDP growth and to keep the capitalist system going. That is largely why anti-m igration policies would be economically so nonviable. Even Trump has maintained the steady flow.
> The slowdown in US labour productivity growth – stylised facts and economic implications
Historically, US labour productivity growth (defined as output per hour worked) in the business sector has varied greatly (see Chart A). Strong growth rates (of 3.3%) in the period 1949-1973 were followed by a sharp slowdown (to 1.6%) in the two decades that followed. The information and communication technology (ICT) boom of the period 1996-2003 led to the “productivity miracle”, when labour productivity growth doubled. As the gains from the ICT boom had largely been reaped, productivity growth slowed down to 1.9% in the pre-crisis years (2004-07). While the Great Recession led to a cyclical rebound in 2008-10, this was followed by disappointing labour productivity growth. Since 2011 US labour productivity has grown on average by only 0.5% per year, compared with a long-term growth rate of 2.5%.
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/eb201602_focus01.en.pdf
The long-term (data here is since 1970) USA PG trend has pretty closely mirrored that of the OECD (37 countries) considered as a whole.
Diminishing PG is generalised to capitalist economies rather than specific to USA.
https://data.oecd.org/lprdty/gdp-per-hour-worked.htm
The systemic problem of capitalism is usually discussed in terms of diminishing PG rather than TRPF.
One could assume PG is big part of Tim Morgan’s SEED modeling.
Productivity growth comes from an increasing amount of energy consumption per capita. With more energy consumption, human labor can be increasingly leveraged. We are losing this benefit now.
Unbelievable, outrageous! French covid-terrorist caught by the police eating a cake in the street without a mask! Certainly throwing infected crumbs all around! Some people are simply too irresponsible and thoughtless to live in society. I hope the guy will spend in prison the rest of his life! He’s to dangerous to walk in the street.
https://www.ouest-france.fr/leditiondusoir/data/104448/reader/reader.html#!preferred/1/package/104448/pub/157309/page/14
The guy drew the cop’s attention because of the mask, but he certainly got all his troubles for calling names on him, which wasn’t very clever.
You seem reluctant to reflect that part of the story in your comment… Though I agree that we’re going overboard with those excessive sanity measures
Spain is being particularly abusive:
https://www.westernjournal.com/cops-ram-woman-car-refuses-wear-mask/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8717707/Spanish-police-officer-kneels-neck-14-year-old-boy-wasnt-wearing-face-mask.html
Some people are starting to fight back. Here a number of bystanders rescue a mask truant, remove their own masks, and chase off the police:
https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/1302932100639789056
I see difficult times for law enforcement officers. As much as health authorities try to multiply the number of cases by testing everyone in sight, the low death toll (and the fact that it gets mainly people older than 70) undermines the credibility of the Covid Story. They need the deat toll to rise urgently. The growing number of “infections” is not enough per se to keep the sheep obedient and in place.
I understand the guy’s indignation. Prohibiting us from eating a cake on the street (or smoking, as in Spain recently) on the grounds that we are puting public health at risk is in a way the same thing as calling us idiots (covidiots, to use the official term), and so it’s understandable the guy lost his mind and called the cop crazy. I get that these “sanitary measures” are necessary for the big reset plan, but without that knowledge, taken separatedly, they cannot fail to appear utterly insane. And the fact that there are not many more people rebelling against those measures, just proves that the propaganda machine is so effective today as it was in 1933.
Millennials to redistribute wealth from older generations to the young in new ‘age of disorder,’ warns Deutsche strategist
Marketwatch
Sept. 9, 2020 at 9:11 a.m. ET
By Rupert Steiner and Steve Goldstein
What new era means for markets
This could see the revenge of the millennials as they take more control and skew policies to redistribute wealth away from older generations to the young.
“Such a shift in the balance of power could include a harsher inheritance tax regime, less income protection for pensioners, more property taxes, along with greater income and corporates taxes . . . and all-round more redistributive policies”, the Deutsche Bank report said.
The ‘new’ generation might also be more tolerant of inflation insofar as it will erode the debt burden they are inheriting and put the pain on bond holders which tend to have a bias towards the pensioner generation and the more wealthy.
“The older generation may also have to be content with lower (or even negative) asset price growth if the younger generation does not have a sudden income boost. This will be a big break from the status quo and lead to far more disorder than in the prior era of globalisation
Too bad much of the so called. wealth is illusionary and digital and will be stranded and abandoned
Such trend is sort of baked into the cake “theoretically”, but with today’s medical treatment many of the 70-80-90yrs old bankers are simply here to stay in control for the grand finale. Besides there is enough compromised in younger gen to serve with the system as willing accomplices no matter what.. This advanced technociv of ours mutated and transformed profoundly all even invalidated the good old “4th turning” – which now become more like stretched “5th turning”, lol.
And you are correct in the end much of the virtual wealth will be stranded, but there are likely many steps to that end.
Tim Morgan said about talking to the US govvernment: Tey are only concerned about the next two weeks. If the young accept to work until death as they expect from the old, well, go for it. Retirement on the other hand is a ponzi as well.
Baut we now saved the people over 85 with Covid!
There will be no more people above 65 in 45 years.
There won’t be many above 45.
Yes, I love asset price deflation. The Appartment I bought for my children will essentially be worthless when they want to sell it.But at least they cann raise children there. Chicken breeding in chicken boxes.
All this is basically complete deflation of everything. This is what we were saying all along
I just raised some chicks for 6 weeks in my bathroom. It was not a good idea.
Oops, I thought your kids would be breeding chickens, but now I realize you meant they would themselves be the chickens. Are they currently living in that apt.? Could they sell now and move to a less precarious place?
McKibben, Klein, and other fakes are named in this interesting report. I’m glad to see Cory Morningstar’s “Wrong Kind of Green” mentioned. Her work on Greta Thunberg’s background connections was most enlightening.
https://thegrayzone.com/2020/09/07/green-billionaires-planet-of-the-humans/
I don’t exactly admire any of the players in this piece, but Naomi Klein has always stood out as a particularly synthetic soul to me. She is looking fat and sassy these days since she’s making bank on her “environmentalism.” She turned to climate change, etc., as a new project in 2009, yet she decided to birth a baby in 2012, despite all the on-coming planetary horrors that she claimed to believe in.
Interesting article . . . “They” always enjoy their inside jokes at our expense.
“Blood and Gore,” har har har . . .
[Quote]: These entities are jointly managed by Al Gore, the former US vice president who negotiated a notorious carbon offsets loophole at the 1997 Kyoto Climate Protocol that has been blamed for the release of 600 million tons of excess emissions. Gore launched the fund alongside David Blood, the ex-CEO of asset management for Goldman Sachs, in order to promote a climate-friendly capitalism.
Micah, I agree. Smart lady but synthetic is just the word. For all the moralising she strikes me as a moral vacuum.
She justified her u-turn on becoming a parent by arguing that having a child is now a “statement of hope”. But of course she had a child simply because she wanted a child.
Hard to overcome our instinct of reproduction and survival. I did also get two children even after I learned about finite world stuff. Why? Because I wanted to. We will all return to dust one day, might as well experience life while we have it.
If everyone stopped having children, this would also lead to extinction. Even if you only have one child, your neighbor gets four. No matter how deeply concerned one is with ecological and economical collapse, one will always find an excuse to have children. That’s how life works.
No need for any human to do anything. Mother nature will handle the number of humans.
Exactly, Harry. Her rationalization reminds me of all her similar-believing cohorts who are part of a growing cottage industry lately: “experts” supposedly aware of the dying biosphere because they’re in the biz, whining about how awful the future is going to be for the babies they’ve callously decided to fling into the ring.
An example is Joe Brewer. His amusing bio: “I am a change strategist working on behalf of humanity, [sic] and also a complexity researcher, cognitive scientist, and evangelist for the field of culture design.”
His quote from a few years ago: “I say this as a man who is about to become a father. My wife and I chose — with eyes wide open — to bring a child into this world in the midst of great upheaval. We believe deeply and firmly in humanity and are investing our blood in the future. This is not something we do lightly. It is a great responsibility to continue the human race even as billions starve…”
“to continue the human race” what he meant was “to continue my gene line even as billions starve” this is basic evolution no shame on him
One of my favorite on-line discussions concerned Eric Holthaus, an environmental journalist.
Holthaus from a few years ago:
“How am I supposed to do my job—literally to chronicle planetary suicide—without experiencing deep existential despair myself? Impossible.”
“But what the hell am I supposed to do? Write another blog post? Our secretary of state is the f****** Exxon CEO.”
Astute commenter’s response:
“I suggest a vasectomy. He’s living in the Tucson desert, has been married 3 years, and has already pumped out 2 kids. How in the f*** did he get a Ph.D., write about climate change for over a decade, and still remain oblivious to human-caused planetary destruction?”
———————-
Update: Holthaus’s wife divorced him while the kids were still babies. Now he never refers to overpopulation, which he used to write about quite a bit pre-reproducing. The moral of this? The human ego will never, ever be restrained, and most men will do anything to try to keep wifey happy.
Joe Brewer sounds hilariously self-important. Guess there’s no ego-trip quite like imagining you are one of the heroic good guys saving the planet.
Speaking of which, “Thirty bare-chested women locked themselves to the railings outside Britain’s Houses of Parliament on Thursday in an Extinction Rebellion protest to demand action against climate change.”
[Alas not many photos].
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-climate-protests/bare-chested-women-lock-themselves-to-uk-parliament-in-climate-protest-idUSKBN2611WF
People don’t understand this whole sad story at all. There are a group of foundations working together to present a false view of what is possible in the future. People don’t understand, “It means selling global mining as the solution to climate change because mining metals is the only path to green energy and green transport.”
There will be winners and losers on any path chosen. This group picked the group of winners they wanted.
“Speaking to the Financial Times, the European Central Bank (ECB) said that the central bank will deepen the pressure on the big European banks, asking them to prepare for Brexit once again as the summer draws to an end.”
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecb-and-big-banks-continue-to-clash-over-brexit-ft-202009090424
“Lloyds Banking Group has announced its first round of job cuts since putting restructuring plans on hold at the start of the pandemic. The UK’s largest high street lender said it would eliminate 865 roles, starting in November…”
https://www.ft.com/content/2ffbedc2-b35d-4c33-84be-2762100a17ea
I am afraid we will see a lot of job cuts this fall.
Good Morning Everyone! Thanks for all the posts 😊 and a special call out to Harry McGibbs wrap up …most comprehensive….must keep a pulse on a dying patient of BAU
Saudi Arabia’s Financial Woes Mean It’s Squeezing Cash Cow Aramco
Matthew Martin
September 9, 2020, 8:06 AM EDT·
(Bloomberg) — The world’s biggest oil company is getting squeezed by its main shareholder, the Saudi Arabian government.
Even with crude dropping to $40 a barrel this week and its cash flow plunging, Saudi Aramco is trying to pay a $75 billion dividend this year, almost all of it to the state. Concerns are mounting, including among global fund managers who bought into the company during a record initial public offering last December, that Aramco is putting strategic projects on ice and racking up debt too quickly.
Aramco has been the country’s cash cow for decades. But the pressure it faces has been thrown into sharper relief by the coronavirus-induced collapse in energy demand — Brent crude fell another 5% on Tuesday — and now that it’s a listed firm with shareholders from New York to Tokyo.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the 35-year-old de facto ruler, has pledged to diversify the kingdom from oil and spend billions developing everything from futuristic cities to tourism and financial services. For that, he needs Aramco’s money.
“The crown prince has basically decided the company is a piggy bank he can raid to fund his other projects,” said Jean-Francois Seznec, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council of Washington’s Global Energy Center, and a Middle Eastern specialist. “It will limit how much they can invest in things like maintaining the oil fields and developing new technologies.”
Yes, diversify….Gail recommends it….something might work out🤗😳🤑
if there is a god, she must have a dark sense of humour
she created two races of people and encouraged each of them to believe they were her chosen ones, meaning the other one was always infidel.
the infidels of the middle east, sitting on the world’s last major reserves of oil, cannot use it without the machines of another set of infidels in the west.
both sets of infidels convinced themselves that the oil, and thus the toys it provided, would last forever, and no one would have to return to the feudal peasantry of pre oil times.
One set of infidels built vast arsenals of wartoys, essential to defend to oil of the other infidels. While the other build vast desert cities.
Neither recognises the bizarre joke, that were it not for the oil, the warfleets could not exist, and the bedouin would have no need of them
Each
so economists encouraged the building of cities in the deserts, promising that they will continue to function when the oil has gone, and deliver revenue to sustain gold plated lifestyles.
each group is now locked in a macabre dance to the music of the economists and politicians, spookily reminiscent of those endurance dance marathons of the 1930s, where each partner had to prop up the other.
if either stops, the dance is over, more than that, the dancers die, which they didn’t used to do in the 30s.
Oil is now their religion. (and ours)
Disbelief in oil-future is heresy, so as a sop to that future, they offer the sacrificial rites of renewable energy, that it will go on delivering all that oil delivered, and we won’t be aware of any difference to our material comfort.
I think some small losers will be those who “bought into” the company. Why would any sane fund manager buy into an oil company when the price of oil is at an historic low, with no indication that it would rise in the forseeable future? But small is relative: the really big loser is the state, which is trying to suck revenue out of a company with near zero nett cash flow. And without that revenue the state is about three months away from collapse.
“The world’s biggest oil company is getting squeezed by its main shareholder, the Saudi Arabian government…
“Concerns are mounting, including among global fund managers who bought into the company during a record initial public offering last December, that Aramco is putting strategic projects on ice and racking up debt too quickly.”
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/saudi-arabia-financial-woes-mean-040000251.html
“Why Nigerian economy may not recover soon – Experts.
“The reality is that the nation lives above its means, and borrows in a way that is not sustainable.”
https://nairametrics.com/2020/09/08/why-nigerian-economy-may-not-recover-soon-experts/
Nigeria should look at the outcome for Venezuela and Ecuador. Living high on future oil revenue doesn’t work for long.
It is a big problem if Saudi Arabia’s expected cash flow is less that its expected dividend for the next several yeas.
“Tullow Oil warned it risked defaulting on a debt facility if it does not resolve a potential liquidity shortfall, as the Africa-focused explorer slumped to a $1.4bn pre-tax loss for the first half of the year.”
https://www.ft.com/content/719eba0e-4c08-4a21-9088-1db286b484bd
“Leading offshore driller Transocean’s recently announced distressed debt exchange offer isn’t exactly going according to plan, to put it mildly.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4373111-transoceans-distressed-debt-exchange-offer-prompts-notice-of-default-large-bondholders
More oil related companies doing badly, financially.
GFA has bipartisan support in USA and no USA-UK trade deal would be possible if Boris follows through on his stated intention to break international law in the WA and GFA. The USA-UK relationship would particularly chill under a Biden presidency and he is currently ahead in the polls. You see, international law does exist in so far as there are people willing to back it up. USA is the guarantor of GFA and it intends to act like it.
UK plans to change Brexit rules threaten US trade deal, top Democrats say
Altering terms of withdrawal agreement on Northern Ireland could damage relations under Biden presidency
Senior Democrats have warned that any attempt by the UK government to backtrack on the Brexit agreement on Northern Ireland would jeopardize a future US-UK free trade deal and could hobble bilateral relations across the board if Joe Biden wins the presidency.
Biden, an Irish American, is a staunch defender of the Good Friday Agreement, of which the US is the guarantor, and which requires an open border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.
“[Joe Biden] is committed to preserving the hard-earned peace & stability in Northern Ireland. As the UK and EU work out their relationship, any arrangements must protect the Good Friday Agreement and prevent the return of a hard border,” Biden’s chief foreign policy adviser, Antony Blinken, said on Twitter on Tuesday night.
People close to the Democratic presidential challenger said any UK move away from those parts of the EU withdrawal agreement that put the 1998 peace deal at risk would present a major impediment to a close relationship between London and Washington in the event of a Biden presidency.
Richard Neal, the chair of the House ways and means committee – which would have a decisive influence on ratification of a trade deal – said he had been repeatedly assured by British officials that there was no threat to the open border between the two Irelands.
“This just came out of the clear blue, nobody was talking about this 72 hours ago,” Neal told the Guardian. “Joe Biden shares my position on this issue entirely … It’ll be a very significant problem and I have also reiterated time and again to the UK government that I can’t imagine that we could develop a bilateral trade relationship if there was any return to a hard border.”
Democratic officials also said that if Boris Johnson proceeded with legislation that his own government admits would break international law, it would call into question the UK’s trustworthiness as a partner.
Even if Donald Trump secured a second term, bipartisan support for the Good Friday agreement in Congress would probably dash any UK hopes of sealing a quick free trade deal after Brexit.
“The Good Friday Agreement and the broader peace process must be protected if the UK has any hope of obtaining congressional support for a potential US-UK free trade agreement,” Eliot Engel, the chair of the House foreign affairs committee, said.
“While I deeply value the US-UK relationship, it’s outrageous that Prime Minister Johnson is reportedly considering overriding critical parts of the withdrawal agreement that give Northern Ireland special customs considerations,” Engel said in an emailed statement.
“These steps are necessary to prevent a hard border on the island and throwing Northern Ireland back into the fast lane toward potential violence. I urge Prime Minister Johnson to abide by the legally binding agreements the United Kingdom agreed to and I call on the UK and the EU to continue to negotiate in good faith to seek out a smooth Brexit transition.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/08/brexit-northern-ireland-us-uk-trade-deal
Perhaps Biden will change his view? Stranger things have happened.
Well yes, it is not literally impossible that Biden would drop his support for GFA and that he would no longer see it as a precondition for any USA-UK trade deal but it is extremely unlikely. He is long committed to GFA and he personally and publicly stated his intention to protect GFA on the campaign trail in South Carolina in November.
In any case, GFA has bipartisan support and the entire House of Representatives unanimously voted in December to protect GFA and to make it a precondition of any trade deal. No trade deal would be possible without the support of the lower house, which would block it, whoever wins the presidency.
TP is free to tear up the WA if it thinks that is for the best but it will have consequences. It is not literally impossible that UK would get a trade deal with USA but it is extremely unlikely. ‘No deal’ is the best way to go in my opinion and then any other matters can be settled. The important thing is that democracy is done and seen to be done.
> US House of Representatives reaffirms Good Friday Agreement support
The US House of Representatives has approved a resolution reaffirming support for the Good Friday Agreement, urging that it be adhered to during upcoming Brexit negotiations.
The legislation was passed on Tuesday night by unanimous voice vote.
It urges the UK and EU to ensure Brexit does not threaten peace in Northern Ireland and opposes any hard border.
It also insists that any UK-US trade agreement must meet the obligations of the Good Friday Agreement.
The US legislation was co-sponsored in the House of Representatives by Democratic Congressman Thomas Suozzi and Republican Congressman Peter King.
“The United States played an important role in the signing of the Good Friday Agreement, a momentous achievement that has been largely responsible for the relative peace over the last two decades,” said Congressman Suozzi.
Congressman King added that it was “imperative that the United States do all that it can to not only support the Good Friday Agreement but prevent any return of a hard border”.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-50658187
Ah yes, “The Guardian”, of course. The UK has repeatedly promised that *they* will not create a hard border between Northern and Southern Ireland, and frankly I believe them. It is the EU that will enforce a hard border on Southern Ireland. And then the Guardian and all hose meddling Americans will instantly change their tune. That has been the obvious outcome from the start. The only remaining uncertainty is, what will the Republic of Ireland do when they realise the EU set them up in this no win situation only to throw them under the bus?
Anyone who follows the Brexit negotiations must realise by now that the sole concern of the Brussels oligarchs was to preserve their own power, and to hell with 400 million peasants.
Yes, it would be so funny if TP went for a ‘dreams come true’ approach, well said.
I would advise TP to completely tear up the WA and to go for ‘no deal’. WA is an appalling piece of legislation and a border poll in Ireland is the only way forward. Then England can get on with its trade deals.
There’s no such thing as Southern Ireland. There’s Ireland.
“There’s no such thing as Southern Ireland.”
So they don’t teach geography in Ireland? It’s even worse than I thought. And they only got postcodes in 2015. Fact!
Pelosi today again laid down the law – UK will be held responsible for any customs ‘hard border’ in Ireland/ NI. UK must specifically abide by the NI Protocol within the WA – or there will be no USA trade deal for UK. USA is a guarantor of GFA and they take that seriously. Boris indicated today that he is pushing ahead with the Internal Markets bill, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Pelosi warns ‘no chance’ of US-UK trade deal passing Congress if Brexit law breached
Britain must ‘respect the Northern Ireland Protocol as signed with the EU’, House speaker says
US house speaker Nancy Pelosi has warned there will be “absolutely no chance of a US-UK trade agreement passing the Congress,” if Britain violates an international treaty and Brexit undermines the Belfast Agreement.
In a statement to The Irish Times on Wednesday evening, Ms Pelosi said Britain must “respect the Northern Ireland Protocol as signed with the EU to ensure the free flow of goods across the Border.”
“The Good Friday Agreement is the bedrock of peace in Northern Ireland and an inspiration for the whole world,” she said.
“Whatever form it takes, Brexit cannot be allowed to imperil the Good Friday Agreement, including the stability brought by the invisible and frictionless border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland.”
“If the UK violates that international treaty and Brexit undermines the Good Friday accord, there will be absolutely no chance of a US-UK trade agreement passing the Congress. The Good Friday Agreement is treasured by the American people and will be proudly defended in the United States Congress.” …
It comes as Richard Neal, the chair of the Ways and Means committee, told The Irish Times that a trade deal between the United States and UK “simply will not happen,” if a hard border returns.
Mr Neal, who has significant authority over US trade policy as chair of the House Ways and Means committee, said of the British government: “I think that they are making a terrible miscalculation. A trade deal between the United States and Britain simply will not happen if they restore a hard border.”
“What they’re missing here, and perhaps they need a reminder of how bad things were 30 years ago,” he told the Irish Times.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/pelosi-warns-no-chance-of-us-uk-trade-deal-passing-congress-if-brexit-law-breached-1.4350920
Yep, EU is saying that they will pursue legal action against UK – and that they will impose financial sanctions on UK if Boris negates the NI Protocol in the WA. The WA allows EU to settle any disputes, so Boris would need to dump that section too or UK will be settled and slapped with sanctions. This is a total mess. What on earth does Boris think that he is doing?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-08/astrazeneca-shares-fall-on-report-of-vaccine-trial-setback
‘AstraZeneca Vaccine Tests Face Delay After Patient Gets Ill’
“A volunteer in the U.K. trials was diagnosed with transverse myelitis, an inflammation of the spinal cord generally caused by infections, the New York Times said, citing a person close to the situation that it didn’t name.”
I then did a Google search on Transverse Myelitis:
“Transverse myelitis is an inflammation of both sides of one section of the spinal cord. This neurological disorder often damages the insulating material covering nerve cell fibers (myelin). Transverse myelitis interrupts the messages that the spinal cord nerves send throughout the body.”
Then I searched for causes:
“Causes of transverse myelitis include infections, immune system disorders, and other disorders that may damage or destroy myelin, the fatty white insulating substance that covers nerve cell fibers.”
What stands out there is immune system disorders. It would seem that taking a vaccine runs the risk of tweaking the immune system to the point of potentially causing TM.
This is bad news for Astra-Zeneca because only 1/3 ever recover. So this was a hospitalization and potentially a permanent condition resulting from their vaccine. By the way, the US has already paid this company for 300 million doses.
Guillain-Barre (gee-YAH-buh-RAY) syndrome is a rare disorder in which your body’s immune system attacks the nerves. Weakness and …
That’s something that occurred to 1 in 10M people getting the 1976 swine flu vaccine, I.e. paralyzed. It also sounds similar to transverse myelitis.
I think what this tells us is everybody needs to have patience while phase 3 vaccine testing progresses for the various vaccines. No vaccine before it’s time just because an election is imminent.
I imagine this will cause some concern for other vaccine makers as well. This side effect could be lurking in other types of vaccines, as well.
Many thanks for thinking to do all of the research on this. I expect this information will take some time to get out to the press.
Oil prices have slid into the upper thirties (http://oil-price.net/) — it’s almost 2 years since world “peak oil” — as JH Kunstler has said, the energy inputs aren’t there.
Somehow, the Ponzi Scheme of the economy must be kept up without the help of growing crude oil production.
Up until the shutdowns, some other types of energy (natural gas liquids, natural gas, wind and solar) were growing, keeping total energy supply growing faster than world population growth. Growing per capita energy consumption allows the economy to grow. Crude oil consumption seems to need to at least grow to keep up with population growth.
Now with the shutdowns, total energy consumption per capita is down. We are trying to prop up the world economy with increased debt and other financial instruments, and so far it is sort of working. At least the financial system and international trade have not completely collapsed. The question is how long it can last, and how it comes apart when it comes unglued.
As simple as that Gail. Boatloads of hopium driven comments, blogs, writers, philosophers, central bankers and politicians won’t keep us from facing reality.
We have the International Treaty for Human Rights. But we do not have a treaty for duties. Capitalism is poisoned with socialism and vice versa. There’s only more, not less. There’s only quantity. Not quality.
“These gradients, when steep enough, give rise to far from equilibrium dissipative structures (e.g., galaxies, stars, black holes, hurricanes and life) which emerge spontaneously to hasten the destruction of the gradients which spawned them. This represents a paradigm shift from “we eat food” to “food has produced us to eat it”.
So galaxies produce black holes at their center to consume the galaxies.
At some point in the future the black holes have consumed all galaxies and the universe will consist of only black holes that then start to consume each others untill there’s is only one giant, super massive black hole.
And then what? A new big bang?
no, because the universe is expanding (evidence is red-shift of galaxies, the farther away, the shiftier). the end will be heat death, nothing around, not even radiation.
Or is there a source of the power behind this whole system that allowed/created the big bang to begin with, and continues to cause/permit far more evolutionary changes in the direction of growing complexity than could be expected based on random changes in DNA and selection based on those random changes?
Guess all agree that this does not mean we have to buy a golden Mercedes to the preacher next door. We cannot thus delegate our spititual and social responsibility. We have to do it ourselves.
In all religions we find that community is what the gods point us to. We interpret this under social aspects, for education, control, insurance, power.
Could there be a spiritual aspect too? That spiritual community allows to connect to this bigger something and allows interaction? Asian religions and shamans tell us so.
Boris and Co. are banning meetings of no more than five people and requiring all “hospitality” facilities (does this include Chinese takeaways?) to close between 10 pm and 5 am.
Matt Hancock announces the strategy and the data behind it in the House, where the MPs are taking their social distancing very seriously.
https://youtu.be/ddiaPRwhb1s
Remember “Hancock’s Half Hour”? This article makes Matt Hancock look as ridiculous as his latest policies, and will give you a laugh as well.
https://off-guardian.org/2020/09/03/hancocks-half-hour/
Back in Tony Hancock’s day, things were so much simpler and sensibler.
All the authorities were asking us to do was use a hanky.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETGLn-wWAAAUtmL.jpg
Thank you for that, Jean. Recently the Telegraph suggested that the lockdowns are about as effective as having a cordoned-off peeing section in swimming pools.
They are, on the contrary, 100% effective: in fundamentally damaging economies and destroying whole sectors thereof…..
Pluck the chicken and some PG&E info.
I finally got a chance to listen to this.
There are too many schemes today, like Uber drivers claiming that they vomited in the back of his car, and charging you to clean up the problem. Only, it is businesses and banks that find reasons they need to get extra governmental funds.
One of Max Keiser’s good lines is, “You can’t taper a Ponzi economy.”
He points out that looked at from the low point of oil prices, there has been huge inflation in commodity prices. Max sees this as related to the money printing and falling dollar.
With respect to all of the televised riots, Max sees this as like the “bread and circuses” in Rome. (The bread comes from the financial giveaways.)
His guest during the second half is someone named Tyson Slocum. With respect to the PG&E outages on August 14 and 15, he would like to know which natural gas electricity suddenly tripped off line on August 14. Was it a legitimate reason or not? Also, which wind farm had a large outage on August 15? Prices spiked very high, when no backup supply was available, before the rolling outages. In his view, the outages might have been intentional, to try to force wholesale prices higher, to help out other electricity producers. (I really don’t think there is much of a possibility of this. I think PG&E has been relying too much on buying imported electricity too long, and has no margin for anything to go wrong.)
Tyson Slocum thinks solar panels are a good option for a country like Namibia, because they are good for charging batteries on cell phones. In fact, he claims to see more uses for them, including “cooking and cooling.” He sees an end of life problem with the solar panels needing to be recycled, but doesn’t think that this will present a problem, because recycling companies will appear to take on this task and resell them. I think Slocum in confused. It is hard to get a reliable enough supply to use for things like refrigerators, even with batteries and inverters. This is too much complexity. They could never have the real power needed for recyling the panels either. They would need to get the materials back to the manufacturers. Solar panels with batteries would never provide enough power for any kind of industry. They wouldn’t help with building roads or improving agriculture either.
At the end, Tyson Slocum talks a bit about ETF’s in the commodity market being a problem, in terms of causing false sense of demand. I can believe this. He mentions that regulators (SEC and CFT) plan to investigate this.
Someone named Jan Smelik sent me this short You Tube video called, “The Impossibility of Windmills.” It is intended for a Dutch audience, but he has translated it for English speaking audiences as well. It becomes humorous the amount of land needed for all of the wind turbines needed, if energy is to be replaced solely by the turbines.
Very comprehensive. Thanks for sharing !
For some time the debt bubble helps to keep up higher resource prices but then a currency reform or inflation is needed or a wealth tax. After that fossile fuel production starts on a lower level (because the credit injections are missing) producing less economic activity. That is the downward curve in Hubbarts model, though I guess it could be a cliff.
After the end of cheap coal the British applied the four-field system which produced more food to suppy the grown population, Peter Turchin found out. It is possible to find solutions.
I guess some rich people play revelation with us. Now it is the period of epidemics. As an atheist I cannot think of any god being so cruel. We should free our minds and find simple solutions to secure our brats. Believers should remember that the message is love, not fear.
I guess that means more likely watering pumpkins next to the streets than harvesting cosmic energy and beaming it down to earth. There is no larger problem, we could start it tomorrow.
There are many such things which would make sense.
Re “I guess that means more likely watering pumpkins next to the streets than harvesting cosmic energy and beaming it down to earth. “
“. . . He had been eight years upon a project for extracting sunbeams out of cucumbers, which were to be put in vials hermetically sealed, and let out to warm the air in raw inclement summers. He told me, he did not doubt in eight years more, that he should be able to supply the Governor’s gardens with sunshine at a reasonable rate; but he complained that his stock was low . . . since this had been a very dear season for cucumbers. I made him a small present. . . ” Lemuel Gulliver, visiting the Grand Academy of Lagado, which was devoted to “scientific” projects that were (a) absurd, and (b) endless sources of funding. Sound familiar? And one such project, it seems, was green energy. Not bad for 1726. But even Jonathan Swift would not have believed a green energy project that would pollute almost half a country with the detritus from lithium mining.
according to my conspiratorial nature a big die-off is coming via a World War involving the superpowers after the die-off we will be living in a world like the movie Gattaca
Very interesting, the political climate is cooling everywhere. Thinking of Wolfgang Schäuble’s remark that crisis reduces resistance against reforms they could use a war to strengthen the EU which is not very popular in Europe. If my suspicion is right, that some elites play revelation, we have to expect everything. In Germany a lot of epidemiologists come out saying there is no pandemy (Sucharit Bhakdi, Wolfgang Wodarg, Beda Stadler, Angela Spelsberg, Hendrik Streeck, Dolores Cahill, Pierre Capel, Ulrike Kämmerer, Karina Reiss). These people are not nobodies. If they are right the pandemy does not exist (the majority has cross immunity and there are severe cases but no pandemic). The inscenation of a pandemic despite better knowledge could be seen as a revelation game (other ideas I came across: stupidity, criminal act of big pharma, way to mask the unavoidable financial crash). In Germany there is significant opposition against the corona measures. This fuels activities around a new constitution. I am very sceptical to this. If the state made the lockdown for criminal reasons the current political system is in danger. This could be a purpose behind all too. On the other hand the US population does not listen to their experts too if it comes to 9/11.
A classic war would demand a lot of fuel for planes and tanks. I guess Russia would have a strategic advantage. What could be any goal, the creation of three large cultural blocks? What would be the advantage?
If the weakness of the current political establishment is energy related (more efforts to get the oil out, higher costs, credit expansion, less political leeway, criminal acts to keep the power), then we are on the second half of the Hubbart curve and decline will move on. We should see in that case an anarchic fight of man against man about what is left until people accept that without fossiles we can only harvest what the sun gave us in the gardens and forests. If we dont find a coordinated way we will have an immense loss of knowledge.
The biggest dangees for mankind is not WW3 though but the nuclear waste present in every country that will spread around after the loss of state authority and technological knowledge. And yes, I dont believe it is enough to fetch the fuel rods and carry them by oc cart to the beach for cooling.
I am not Smelik btw 🙂
“What could be any goal, the creation of three large cultural blocks? What would be the advantage?”
If there is going to be trading done, trading within a small area would likely take less fuel than supply lines reaching around the world.
I would expect some areas that are doing very poorly would be left out of all three areas.
I’m still interested in universal basic income, in the Western countries at least, and why some say it is not feasible. Gail says we need to raise demand for energy. Surely that would help. We have more and more billionaires. Amazon gets ever richer by people clicking buttons to download best sellers, with no real work involved.
OK, a lot of this billionaire wealth is notional and helps to inflate asset values. But surely some of it could be redistributed to the just about managing who are currently rioting in the streets. How many billions would it cost, and why is it not feasible in economies that are worth trillions? I can’t do the math, but I don’t think anybody has yet.
Yanis Varoufakis – My proposal is a Universal Basic Dividend
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtTg4qFce_U
I don’t know enough about the subject to comment on the feasibility of this idea, however. Any thoughts?
I’ve always found him quite brilliant.
But, he is coming from a European view.
Hint:
“To take just one crude example, one thing you surely have to do in order to live a good life is, well, not die. And that’s one area in which Italians have been outperforming Americans by an ever-widening margin. In the mid-1980s, the two nations had roughly the same life expectancy. These days Italians can expect to live around 4 ½ years longer”
They may not live as long as Swedes or Danes, but the US is far in the rear view mirror.
Varoufakis is just another narcissistic, fraudulent Left academic windbag: for instance he wants abolish the Patriarchy, too, universal reform to create Utopia, etc – one can’t take him very seriously as a thinker.
I’m not a leftie, insofar as it’s possible to describe ‘left’, though I accept an ideal society and economy probably requires a mixture of ideas from different positions. So I do find a lot of his ideas impractical, to say the least. Narcissism? Well, we all need a little to get us through life.
However, I did enjoy his book, ‘Adults In The Room: My Battle With Europe’s Deep Establishment’. I was surprised at how pragmatic he was, as he tried to get tideover funding from the euro zone and to implement reforms in Greece that would collect more tax and fairly – given that the oligarchy there manages to pay hardly any tax. He also explained the privatisations he would be prepared to accept and those he wouldn’t and why. In the event, he was sidelined, and there was a bargain basement fire sale of some of Greece’s best assets.
Greece should never have been allowed into the euro, of course. The EU was brimming with self-satisfaction and dizzy with optimism when it allowed Greece in. ‘Ah, but Goldman Sachs told us it would be fine but they’d cooked the books!’ said the Germans. Really. And you just accepted their word? Where was the due diligence? And when it predictably started to fall apart, the majority of the pain and blame was pushed onto Greece, with hugely deflationary policies.
Varoufakis is very amusing in his description of the tactics the EU used to thwart some of his quite surprisingly reasonable suggested policies. They’d agree to some, then send him memos full of questions requesting details. He’d answer in detail, then they send more memos with the same questions posed in different ways, and so on. ‘Playing the Swedish national anthem’, he calls it. It’s an insightful book and interesting to see how an avowed Marxist pragmatically accepted the premises of the capitalist economy he had to work within, such as privatisation, in order to find a solution to Greece’s problems.
Agreed. If there is to be a “Universal Basic Dividend”, who is supposed to create the wealth that provides said dividend? Martians? Facebook? (Actually, the Martians might be a better bet: Facebook has enough money to bribe, or otherwise dispose of, any politician who threatens them.)
The problem with universal income is that it’s easy to make people slaves. Who will decide the amount of money you give to peasants? You will give them a false feeling of security while keeping them dependant. In the end, the scammers will win, as always. But you will give them even more power.
It’s rich with problems, for sure. But they are there to be solved.
I would argue we are all slaves anyway, to life, work, finance, the rigged economy, and our country. And the rest. If you give money to people without hope, some grab the opportunity. You would find that some would do without things in order to save from their basic income and pay for training, so they could go into work and add to their income and also fill their time with something interesting.
Some decent people suffer the hammer blows of fate and end up on the streets. One of those hammer blows is the ridiculous lockdowns and their propensity to put people out of work or make them homeless. This is a problem that needs a solution.
Hey make me a slave. Im down. The problem is not slavery. The problem is in a finite world infinite money will fail. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8HqyEHqEYho
OK, I’ll make you a slave.
Let’s think about Venezuela and Ecuador. They managed to presell quite a bit of their oil resources in the ground. They then distributed the proceeds to the population as nicer homes, better jobs, and the many things the people would expect from a higher standard of living. In a way, what they did is what people would like to do with a Universal Basic Income scheme. They would like “found money” to suddenly come their way, without a big penalty in the value of their currency. They would then help out the many poor people. Venezuela and Ecuador had oil in the ground, so that they could use it as collateral on their loans.
In a way, pre-selling the oil in the ground did help the people of those countries for a while. Their standards of living were higher. Population was able to grow, making the benefit, over time, less and less per person. Now, with low oil prices, the “chickens are coming home to roost.” There is a huge drop in the standard of living. We just saw a post about the percentage of people without jobs in Ecuador being 85%. And we keep hearing how bad off the people in Venezuela are. The countries are in no position now to try to take on more debt, to try to continue this plan.
I think that pretty much all of the rich countries are already printing a huge amount of money. The ones that do most of this are likely to see their currency fall relative to the currencies of other countries. Poor counties really can’t print much money, and they are the ones who most desperately need a Universal Basic Income. How would South Africa create a Universal Basic Income, for example?
The EU is relatively rich. Suppose the EU decides to give its people a universal basic income of 1000 euros per month, in addition to whatever they currently earn. I think the Euro would drop relative to other currencies, making the additional income worth a whole lot less, in terms of actual goods they could purchase. Perhaps it would stimulate the world economy somewhat, leading to more goods and services produced around the world, and a higher price of oil. So maybe it would be temporarily beneficial to the world economy. But aren’t most of the countries of Europe already doing somewhat similar, with their schemes for continuing to pay many people wages for jobs that are no longer really there? What happens when funding runs out in October? Don’t we have a similar problem with any Guaranteed Income Plan for trying to support would-be workers? It can never be stopped, it just needs to get bigger and bigger.
I have a hard time understanding how “tax the rich” schemes would work. Farmers are in theory rich, because their farmland is worth a large amount if it is sold. It likely has a lot of debt against it. Most farmers are having a very hard time making “ends meet” because the sales price of commodities is low. Do you tax the farmer so he/she cannot pay back the mortgage on the farm?
Another example is a dentist who buys a practice from someone else, again using debt. The dentist’s income then goes back to paying back the debt for buying the practice, and perhaps for renting the facility and paying staff members. What do you do? Tax the dentist so he/she can hire fewer workers?
I think that trying to get enough funds for a Guaranteed Income Plan through high taxes on the rich is a “can full of worms.” You can raise the percentage tax on realized capital gains, or you raise the income tax on layers of income above certain thresholds. I doubt that you will get a whole lot of money back out of such arrangements, however, certainly not enough to give individual citizens very much guaranteed income. Because of these impracticalities, it seems like countries have mostly just added to their debt, rather than trying to get the money back through higher taxes on the rich.
Currencies are kept aloft somewhat by market sentiment. The sentiment that matters most is that of the rich countries, who therefore benefit! Once upon a time QE would not have been acceptable to the market movers and finance people. Now they have decided that it is.
Up until now, QE has mostly inflated the asset prices. My little London flat / apartment is worth roughly 5 times what I paid for it 29 years ago, but UK inflation has not increased 500% since then. It’s more like 90%.
UBI would get more money to the people at the bottom. That would stimulate the economy more effectively than asset price inflation, and probably not hugely, since the amounts we are talking are not huge. And if the rich countries all came to accept it and do it as the price for a more stable society, then currencies would not tank.
The Greek guy suggested taxing large companies, like Google and Amazon. OK, that indirectly hits a wide target, but he wasn’t talking about burdening the little dentist practices. In any case, I think UBI may end up being tried out of desperation, and if it doesn’t work perfectly at first, it can be tweaked. I think that’s normal for new policies. But we’ll see.
When the United States introduced the income tax it was touted as a wealth tax. And was just 1%.
Exactly, the idea in Gail’s reply to the effect of “markets” being realistic and unbiased brokers of relative value be it in currencies and debt is not realistic, it’s extra naive. For example, Russia has almost no debt, 3/4 $T in reserves, but “the markets” usually swing their currency exchange rate as on roller coaster and with evident downward bias..
The Chinese have had better starting position, learning to live with the [western financial racket] in ~slow increments (and “w. help of non mainland diaspora”, gradually shielding themselves through the rise of recent decades, now they can’t be pushed around as easily, the inertia simply isn’t there. Obviously tons of other (interlinked) problems.
In terms of Latin America these countries were hollowed out basket cases way before the entrance of lefty populists ~20yrs ago..
But I concede to these arguments in the sense that inside debt ruled “culture” there is little point of lefty policies, they can’t deliver inside such settings. The recently departed scholar David Graeber made lot of presentations on the role of debt through history, recommended.
https://peakoil.com/publicpolicy/what-will-the-world-look-like-in-2030
Extracts:
We’re going to see more automation. We’re going to see, unfortunately, more technological unemployment. Many other jobs have been lost in the American economy. I don’t think they’re coming back. We’re going to have to think very carefully in political terms and in social terms about the implications of further automation, especially in the service sector.
We have to figure out how to retrain people and how to help those people find other jobs. We may have to consider very seriously ideas such as a universal basic income. This used to be a fringe idea, but it’s quickly becoming more mainstream.
Universal basic income also has a business case. Remember, two-thirds of the American economy is [made up of household] consumption. If people don’t have jobs or don’t have well-paying jobs, then we need to compensate for that.
====
My own thoughts: yes, if automation creates mass unemployment, then it’s as well to distribute to humans the wealth that machines can’t spend, to keep the economy going. Extra credits should also be directed at those whose factories / inventions create more wealth for society. as Gail points out, we need demand. Without it, we’re sunk.
“So, what do you think of that, Mr Robot? Stand and deliver!” demands FE. Robot: ‘Don’t want to!’ Robot delivers laser beam that vaporises FE’s groin. “Ouch!”
Robots/automation must kill off their own groundbase of existence.
robots cannot go on producing stuff ad infinitum without ’employed’ (ie solvent) humans to absorb/use/waste/recycle it again
It isn’t possible to sustain a commercial system that only has a means of production, with no means of consumption. It’s pointless anyway.
I might have missed a pertinent detail about it, no doubt someone will point it out if I have
I’ve tried to explain it here, as I see it.
https://extranewsfeed.com/robots-cannot-survive-automation-f45605a58ad7
There is also an additional problem: if UBI is offered in one country but not in the others, it will increase the pressure of migration uncontrollably.
Some propose, to avoid this, that only citizens can receive the UBI, but that would generate two castes: those who have nationality and start the month with € 1000 in their pocket and foreign workers, who suffer the inflationary effects and start without nothing.
Do we want to create a caste society?
Can we really close the borders to the free money call?
“if UBI is offered in one country but not in the others, it will increase the pressure of migration uncontrollably.”
Yes, one drawback.
“Do we want to create a caste society?”
I’d be fine with that. I get tired of the refugees from Arab and Muslim lands, who journey far from their continents to reach the UK, when their cultures do not fit with ours.
Not so much the different cultures, as refusing to assimilate once here.
It’s generally the clever and talented who do change and want to fit in, but they are not the majority.
When the Huguenots settled in Britain, they were I believe forbidden to hold all their church services in French, forcing them to assimilate and learn English. This was a great success within a generation or two.
Traditional religious practices in an alien language, settlement in huge numbers in concentrated areas, and being able to live on welfare or through organised crime, make assimilation just another option, not a necessity.
For the criminals, a non-assimilated community is actually their best protection and cover. This city is riddled with Turkish drug-front businesses, employing only Turks…..
There was a Huguenot influx to my area, and the parish church still has some French prayer books.
Well, something along the lines of quasi “uncontrollable migration – UBI” already exists, it’s called “anchor baby immigration” and especially in some EU states the money provided with ~4-5 kids or even fewer allows for rather “opulent lifestyles” for the adults around.. many years.. for ever as the new youngsters get pregnant early and cycle repeats somewhat..
Or; would the masses share less, with more people?
Hahahahhh…
The hoodies already start looting for the latest Nikes. You better start taking care of your own tribe, because we need 5 billion less people.
The people rioting are very much a minority, and they have an ideological agenda, it’s not really economic distress, nor are they actually the victims of anything.
These sinister trash, who do no good and much harm to small businesses -look at the videos of shops and restaurants being trashed – are very much outweighed by all the decent people who feel they are struggling but wouldn’t dream of rioting and looting.
So we don’t really need UBI to pacify them – not just yet.
I’m rather more interested in the reform of welfare, so that people thrown out of work en masse are not humiliated by the system and unfair penalties, as happens at present. I find this truly disgraceful.
With many more millions soon to be probably permanently unemployed, they should not be treated as frauds and subjected to irrational and impossible targets, looking for jobs which will simply not exit.
I agree with you on rioters, Xabier. However, I notice that recessions tend to produce more rioters – look at the riots of the first half of the 1980s. It’s a problem to be solved. Violence also begets violence, so responding with too much violence also does not solve the problem. It’s a very tricky problem.
The Greek guy’s argument that giving everybody a basic income would at a stroke get rid of the need for many bureaucrats is a brilliant one. How much do their salaries and offices cost, compared to the small allowances they are dishing out – or putting a stop to? That’s quite apart from the fact that they do assess some literal semi-cripples, who are not very bright or talented, over harshly, so they end up on the street, increasing the homelessness problem and putting more pressure on the social services. We currently clearly do not have joined-up solutions.
True. Have not followed the recent UK riots closely, but the US case was evidently tiny minority of bused/flown in gangs of pro-malcontents to hire, causing spectacular msm-catchy havoc during the night. The daily protest by locals were largely non violent. It’s all just mighty shiny wurlitzer played on behalf of..
It wouldn’t take very much money to deal with the rioters in the same way General Mundus did with the Nika rioters. Probably less than the cost of one torched supermarket.
Such masses of activists usually have ring-leaders: take them out and the mass will disintegrate and be comparatively easy to deal with.
Avoiding violence or any firm action can unfortunately all too easily lead to more violence in the end – that is certainly the very tricky issue to be faced.
For instance, if the black rioters and vandals had been properly smashed, or even just stopped from gathering, in Westminster and Whitehall recently, they would have got the message, but the suburbs where they live might well have gone up in flames.
However, they were treated so gently that the message is ‘Do as you like’,and the authorities are left with no credit, and decent people disgusted and disillusioned.
TP is set to tear up the UK-EU WA. The concern centres on borders between Britain/ NI/ ROI (EU). TP seemed to have agreed to custom checks between Britain/ NI in order to avoid them between NI/ ROI a la the GFA. Now Boris is saying that there will be no checks between NI/ Britain in the event of ‘no deal’ and they are discussing checks, between Britain/ NI, with the EU.
Boris unofficially indicated before the GE that there would be no checks between Britain /\ NI, so this is not a massive surprise to anyone who has been paying attention. He entered into the WA just to get out of the EU and on to the deal phase, in the face of massive opposition from within and outside his party. No deal seems to be the way to go.
NI has become a bit of a nuisance to Britain. USA politicos are saying that there can be no trade agreement between USA and Britain if GFA is violated. Presumably that would include any ‘hard border’ due to EU imposed checks between ROI/ NI ‘due to’ TP. Likely this is all headed toward a border poll on a united Ireland, which may be for the best for everyone concerned. If the status quo has become untenable then the status of NI will need to be clarified one way or the other.
> Government admits new Brexit bill ‘will break international law’
The government has admitted that its plan to reinterpret the special Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland will break international law.
The Northern Ireland secretary, Brandon Lewis, astonished backbenchers when he told the House of Commons: “Yes, this does break international law in a very specific and limited way. We’re taking the powers to disapply the EU law concept of direct effect … in a certain very tightly defined circumstance.”
In a new internal market bill, the government is expected to unveil plans for domestic powers to govern part of the Northern Ireland protocol, something that has threatened to torpedo Brexit talks that resumed in London on Tuesday…
“There are precedents for the UK and, indeed, other countries, needing to consider their international obligations as circumstances change,” he said citing changes in the Finance Act in 2013…
Johnson’s move to try to override part of the Northern Ireland protocol has put Brexit talks at risk but Lewis told MPs the new legislation, which would “clarify” part of the special arrangements on Northern Ireland, was designed as “limited and reasonable steps to create a safety net” in the event that talks collapse…
However he batted away a question from Hilary Benn, the chair of the Brexit select committee, who demanded to know if, as expected under the protocol, businesses from Great Britain would have to fill in paperwork, including entry summary declarations, if sending goods to Northern Ireland.
That, said Lewis, was being discussed by the specialised EU-UK committee set up under the withdrawal agreement.
Totally good news. Leaving Northern Ireland subject to the EU was a betrayal of our loyal fellow countrymen that should never have happened and that now one hopes will be reversed. As for international law, the only laws that matter in a sovereign UK are the laws made by the Queen in Parliament. They should reflect international law only if based on “open agreements openly arrived at”, which has not been the case since 1919.
And if Boris is purging from his government and civil service the last of the “remainers”, newspeak for “traitors”, they should think themselves lucky they are not facing the headsman.
Well, NI voted to remain in EU. The democratic way forward is for them to choose whether they want to remain in UK or EU. Plainly they cannot do both, the leave vote in England and Wales guaranteed that.
GFA provides a mechanism for a border poll in Ireland, should it seem likely that a majority in NI would vote for Irish unity. UK could not renege on that commitment without major international repercussions, maybe even sanctions from USA and EU.
So the matter is headed along predetermined paths. If polls begin to indicate majority support in NI for UI then a border poll will have to be called and it will be for the people of NI to democratically decide the matter. The situation needs to be solved one way or the other.
Thank you; I agree entirely. If the people of NI indeed vote to join with the country that murdered in cold blood four thousand of their loyal citizens, so be it. As a man sows, so shall he reap.
Yes, the GFA was a remarkable witness to the ability of both communities to make peace, to put the past behind them and to embrace the democratic process. ‘Blessed are the peacemakers, forgive and you will be forgiven, love your enemies.’ It must have taken a tremendous effort to make peace after decades of sectarian strife. They practised rather than just professed, they sowed peace and their reward is peace. Now they can all judge their best future, rationally and democratically, the same as everyone else. They have earned it, and good luck to them whatever they decide.
Good fences make good neighbors.
In Northern Ireland, many communities are segregated from each other by physical walls of separation. That’s what’s keeping the peace; not some ‘Blessed are the peacemakers, forgive and you will be forgiven, love your enemies’ Kumbaya singing poppycock.
Frank Brennan vividly recalls the shootings and bombings in Belfast, Northern Ireland, when he was a young man in the early ’70s as well as attacks on his own life.
Brennan, a member of the Irish republican movement, grew up in Short Strand, a staunchly Catholic, working-class neighborhood in predominantly Protestant east Belfast.
Since the late 1960s, a bloody, 30-year guerrilla war was waged throughout Northern Ireland, leaving over 3,600 dead. Commonly referred to as “troubles,” this period is defined by the conflict between Catholic republicans and nationalists, and Protestant loyalists and unionists. Catholics aimed to have a united Ireland, while Protestants fought to keep their British allegiance. This still continues today.
In the ’70s, the British government began to build separation barriers known as “peace walls” around Northern Ireland to separate Catholic and Protestant areas in an attempt to control sectarian violence.
The walls were meant to be temporary, but they helped to calm tensions and decrease attacks between the two communities living in close proximity and became permanent. Today, many residents who live along these walls still want them to remain.
https://www.pri.org/stories/2020-01-14/northern-ireland-still-divided-peace-walls-20-years-after-conflict
Utter tripe: the swords have not been turned into ploughshares in Northern Ireland, merely laid aside for the time being.
Sectarian hatred is still rife and deeply embedded, and simmering low-level violence has never ceased.
Both communities did not make peace. Traitor Blair gave the republicans everything they wanted, including free pardons for the terrorists, and then imposed a Carthaginan peace on the loyalists. That was his “legacy”. It is now coming apart, but why should he care.
Yes, it is fantastic that all the NI political parties bar the DUP signed up to the GFA and that the communities voted for peace and democracy as the way forward, in both jurisdictions and by very wide margins.
The people of NI showed the world that peace and democracy are possible, and that is admirable. Everyone who supports peace and democracy will welcome the GFA as the way forward.
Indeed the entire international community welcomed GFA and it is now international law and sanctionable by the international community. Let us all put our best foot forward for peace and democracy in NI.
How do we know that Lord Mountbatten had dandruff?
His Head and Shoulders was found on the beach.
Greetings from Northern Ireland. We did indeed vote to remain in the EU along with London, Scotland, Cambridge and Gibraltar among others. Perhaps they should all secede from the U.K., or perhaps the whole thing is a complete mess from beginning to end.
There is no such thing as “international law”.
Nations and peoples are sovereign.
It depends what you mean by a ‘thing’. Obviously. ‘sovereignty’, states and their laws are just as ‘made up’ as international law. They are at base enforceable agreements. UK is very much signed up to international law.
Laws ‘exist’ in so far as there is someone to back them up. UK courts themselves uphold some international law by agreement. Beyond that, it is up to other states if they want to punish UK and to thus make the laws a reality. Many states get sanctioned, UK is not immune to that.
One might as well say that there is only ‘sovereign’ individuals, but laws are enforced through agreements and punishments. It is human modus operandi rather than metaphysics
Meanwhile in liberal socialist Sweden, aka the crackpot banana republic of social(ist) engineering quagmire.
“Swedish media blackout as police raids former Prime Minister’s apartment, finds cocaine and arrests Fredrik Reinfeldt’s high-as-a-kite son Erik, 25, wearing only his underpants and screaming for “DADDY!”“
Yup, it’s a good idea to give money to the institutionalized sociopathy. They get all the dope and fun, while dispatching you to endure drudgery until you are 75 years old. Then, god bless you if you are diagnosed with covid, get ready for palliative care and morphine. Well, then at last the dope becomes available.
https://www.friatider.se/swedish-media-blackout-police-raids-former-prime-ministers-apartment-finds-cocaine-and-arrests
We’ll eat again.
IGC projects record output for corn, wheat and soybeans
According to the IGC’s Grain Market Review, released Aug. 27, total global grains production will reach 2.230 billion tonnes this marketing year, up 50 million tonnes from the July forecast and 9% higher than the previous year (2.181 billion tonnes).
A record world wheat crop also is expected at 763 million tonnes, topping the previous mark of 762 million tonnes set last year.
Largely on an upgraded outlook for the United States, global soybean production is projected to set a record in 2020-21 at 373 million tonnes, up 8 million tonnes from the July forecast and 9% higher than last year’s total of 339 million tonnes.
Soybean exports are estimated to reach a peak during the recently completed marketing year.
“Tied to continued heavy shipments from South America, chiefly Brazil, the Council’s forecast for global soybean trade in 2019-20 is lifted to a peak of 163 million tonnes, the 7% year-on-year increase primarily stemming from bigger dispatches to China,” the IGC said.
Global rice production is projected to rebound by 2% year-on-year to a record 505 million tonnes in 2020-21, on bigger crops among leading exporters.
Total grains consumption is seen climbing by 41 million tonnes over the previous year to 2.222 billion tonnes, led by gains for feed (18 million tonnes) and industrial uses (12 million tonnes).
“Amid record supplies, corn demand is seen rising the most, up by 33 million tonnes year on year,” the IGC said.
https://www.world-grain.com/articles/14164-igc-projects-record-output-for-corn-wheat-and-soybeans
Great, we can all be chemically feminised through the consumption of phytoestrogens. Man bras it is! (joke)
Wow! I had heard that apart from the strange windstorm in Iowa, growing conditions were good this year. Of course, if restaurant are going broke everywhere, who is going to make use of all of this grain?
2.222 billion tonnes of grain.
If 7.8 billions humans had to eat it all, it would work out to 285kg per person.
We’d all end up looking like this lady.
https://www.henrymakow.com/upload_images/white-racism.jpeg
Tim, there are also about 700 million pigs, and fat pigs are very tasty. Pig Suuie!
One of the biggest energy milestones of 2020 is that the EU with its Directive 2010/31/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 19 May 2010 on the energy performance of building introduced compulsory construction of the passive houses.
Many people do not realize the fact that the passive houses use a lot of glazing, which means that they are practically glasshouses dependent on the sunshine. This means a lot of problems when planning new contstruction, as your house casts shadows that can damage energy gains from the sun of your neihgbours.
The result of this will be mostly ground floor houses and buildings as nobody (the authorities, the companies, the organisations or the individuals) will risk lawsuits with their neighbours. The conditions for new constructions become worse. You e.g. can not build a fence that is too high, as such fence would damage calculated energy consumption of your neighbours house or place some temporary objects on your plot that will cast shadows reaching the windows of your neighbours house!
This is really a revolution in construction: less work for wall builders with wood or blocks and more work for those who produce special, insulating multilayer glazing.
Revolution? No: it is a reversion to the architecture of the Anasazi. And where are they?
Yes, the human population is ageing and declining. But only a few people realize that there are no other options than leaving the buildings that consume too much energy, i.e. those that are big and require a lot of energy inputs. No matter if they are fossil fuels or firewood from nearby forest.
“The result of this will be mostly ground floor houses” thousands years ago, Lao Zi used to say the same. Live on the ground!
What we will discover is that unhappy people can easily break glass in riots. This glass is not easily replaced.
Also, passive houses tend to be tightly sealed. If the problem is COVID-19, we need a lot of ventilation. If multi-generational families will be living together, I expect that multilevel homes would be helpful as well.
Passive houses are an example of too much complexity, I am afraid.
If you are poor, then there is no reason for a multilevel house, as caring for the elderly requires a lot of energy. Moreover, the families are getting smaller. All this fits ideally into a ground floor house. When the population is aged, i. e. weak, the tendency for riots disappears, as the people realize that there is no way out.
“Hedge fund sentiment towards crude and products turned sharply more negative at the end of August amid signs of a slow post-epidemic recovery in oil consumption and persistently high inventories.
“Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of almost 40 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts in the week to Sept. 1.
“The rate of selling equalled the week to July 28 as the fastest since mid-March, when the epidemic was raging unchecked and major oil exporters were engaged in unrestricted volume warfare.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/oil-global-kemp/rpt-column-hedge-funds-grow-sceptical-of-oil-market-rebalancing-kemp-idUSL8N2G42LO
I see WTI is at $37.04 now. Brent seems to be about $41.65. Not much incentive for oil companies to do more drilling.
“One in 10 UK businesses that have taken on debts from government-backed coronavirus schemes could go bust, according to a prominent survey.
“Some 42pc of companies have used the schemes during the pandemic, and more than a quarter report that they may have to scale back operations to repay them, a poll by the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) with banking group TSB found.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/09/08/one-10-companies-have-taken-covid-debts-could-go/
“Ending the job retention scheme as the economy heads into a bleak winter solves nothing and will compound the long-term economic scarring left by Covid-19.
“Some numbers… to consider: there are 32.9m workers in the UK, and according to the Office for National Statistics’ latest survey, 11pc of them were still furloughed as of the end of August. That’s 3.6m workers currently facing a very uncertain future after October.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/09/08/halloween-jobs-horror-awaits-unless-sunak-u-turns-furlough/
“The government doesn’t need the Bank of England to provide financial forecasts at the moment – the supermarkets are doing it for them.
“Today Morrisons became the latest retailer to announce it was cutting the prices of hundreds of products across its stores, with CEO David Potts pledging the reductions to help cash-strapped Brits were “here to stay”.
“It represents the latest in a series of moves by the mults to reset prices ahead of what they clearly think will be a long and drawn-out recession.”
https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/the-grocer-blog-daily-bread/supermarkets-price-cuts-put-them-on-collision-course-with-suppliers/648089.article
“Britain went into Tuesday’s fresh round of Brexit trade talks with a warning to the European Union that it was ramping up preparations to leave without an agreement as both sides bickered over rules governing nearly $1 trillion in commerce…
“European diplomats said Britain was playing a game of Brexit chicken by threatening to collapse the process and challenging Brussels to compromise first. Some fear Johnson may view a no-deal exit as useful distraction from the coronavirus crisis.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-frost/brexit-poker-begins-uk-ramps-up-no-deal-preparations-idUKKBN25Y23A?il=0
Smells like deflationary death spiral
It is difficult to deal with demands from consumers for lower prices at the same time producers want higher prices.
No one stopped to figure out what would happen if a recession lasted a whole lot longer than the job retention scheme. It seems like the situation could be like going off the edge of another cliff.
Gait, politicians hardly ever think long term, because in most democracies the “people” have the attention span of a chicken. Their first instinct is to kick the can down the road. So, no amount of job retention schemes will avert the recession, merely postpone it, and hence make it worse. No amount of lockdown will stop the virus, merely slow it down, and make it worse, because people in enforced idleness will become less healthy and more susceptible to infection. This has been obvious from the beginning, but nobody is willing to listed because they are terrified of the truth.
“‘Without financial assistance, the restaurant industry in New York State could collapse’
“Close to two-thirds of restaurant owners in the state of New York said they could be out of business by the end of 2020, a new survey released last week has found.”
https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/coronavirus/1599493654-survey-63-of-new-york-restaurants-may-close-until-2021
“US banks are increasingly worried about being repaid on loans secured against commercial property, as offices, malls and hotels continue to stand empty.
“The darkening outlook of banks is laid bare by disclosures on so-called criticised loans, which are flashing warning signals about a borrower’s ability to pay.”
https://www.ft.com/content/0865e993-d454-40d0-af57-9a75c7016177
I can understand why banks would be worried about the repayment of loans secured by commercial property. “Socially distanced” spaces simply don’t work financially. A restaurant closes instead, for example. It is even worse if a restaurant cannot serve food inside at all.
“In the United States, the catastrophic economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic has forced increasing numbers of young adults to move in with their parents.
“A recent Pew Research Center analysis has now found that the share of 18-to-29-year-olds living with a parent has reached its highest level since the Great Depression era.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/09/07/highest-number-of-american-young-adults-live-with-their-parents-since-the-great-depression-infographic/#7d7453df1f49
“Hopes of stimulus compromise fade… White House feels confident economy can rebound without new spending…”
https://www.ft.com/content/363eb1a2-f211-4fed-8b9e-c572433cafa1
On this one, classical economics is firmly in the same camp as the White House. Let those that cannot survive die, so that their assets and workers can be acquired by those better able to survive. Fewer airlines, more farming cooperatives; fewer banks, more credit unions; fewer cruise liners, more dory fishers.
Downsizing will happen; we can encourage it to our advantage, or suppress it and make the descent even worse and more socially destructive. But the “stimulus” lobby don’t care about social destruction, because they can use it to loot the real economy.
Multigenerational families will become the rule rather than the exception. Children have a hard time getting jobs that pay enough for them to afford a new home. Grandparents have no intention of going to Assisted Living Centers that will neglect them and keep them from their families.
Great opportunity to rise the local taxes then..
Young and old confined to same dwelling can’t hide anymore from paying various surcharges to offset the lack of enough top gov printing reaching the municipalities. Btw. Congress stimulus dead now, EUR member state stimulus on the weak side, hence CBs must ponny up in the effort, it seems..
Someone must print eventually.
local taxes can only be generated by people working locally
no work
no taxes
sorry
Eighty percent of the income of my local authority is derived from central government coffers. Local taxes are a significant and welcome but minor part of the income stream.
Amazingly, our city of 80,000 had a budget surplus of several hundred million yen last year for the first time in living memory. No doubt heads will roll for that. The prevailing bureaucrat ic philosophy is “We spend therefore we are.”
“If you have not been hearing much of the French Gilets Jaunes or of the Italian Sardines in the last few months, it’s because “the social and psychological unrest arising from the epidemic tends to crowd out the conflicts of the pre-epidemic period, but at the same time, it constitutes the fertile ground on which global protest may return more aggressively once the epidemic is over,” writes Massimo Morelli, Professor of Political Science at Bocconi, in a paper recently published in Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy.”
https://phys.org/news/2020-09-epidemics-unrest.html
Ecuador a fairly solid bet for more unrest:
“A shocking 85 percent of Ecuadorans are now either unemployed or in precarious jobs.”
Video:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/09/ecuador-faces-worst-unemployment-crisis-latin-america-200907161139845.html
I think of Ecuador as being very much like Venezuela, in many ways. Their leaders were friends. They both borrowed from China, based on the hoped-for future value of their oil in the ground, and used the proceeds to give citizens a lifestyle that the economies could not really afford, based on a socialist type approach. Now, this is all falling down.
I visited Ecuador in 2009. At that time, there was no freedom of the press. Ecuador’s government had cooked up false allegations against Chevron and was trying the equivalent of extortion. This scheme ultimately did not work.
Ecuador’s oil extraction has been fairly close to flat, but with low oil prices, the amount the country can get for it is not high at all. Ecuador’s debt to China related to oil is no doubt what is mentioned in this video as being a problem.
Lenin Moreno is making harsh decisions to deal with low oil Prices, Correa will be jailed if he comes back to Ecuador.
WTI 38.85
The oil price has broken down from its support line.
Another crash is coming?
As prices go down…the dollar goes up…and then the Fed can print more dollars and buy everything to bring up all prices again.
How long can the Fed do this? Untill it owns everything?
FED serves it’s top shareholders, handful of families behind global banking cartels, but also needs active cooperation of their – transmission mechanism – the upper wealthier classes in every corner of the world, say the top ~ 1-20% wealthy/income classes.. which in itself is a diverse layered grouping of tax heaven residents to merely “ordinary” bank account/assets rich, .. if/when these refuse (or are made to) play no longer it’s (this) gamer over. We are not there yet..
USD EUR bounced on its multi year trendline and is now rising.
They haven’t abandoned the king yet.
WTI 37.65
WTI 36.75
Oil futures drop 8% in China…and China is the buyer of last resort.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhZdEbPUYAIlCVa?format=jpg&name=900×900
Doesn’t sound good!
Thanks for the coverage, as the neo-ETP/ASPO (Hills Group) people estimate in latest revision, the ~2022-25 seems as the thermodynamic threshold for global oil, and when even the best “can kicking” ~substitutes are being threatened (e.g. now the idea of sanctions on NordStream2 supported even from inside by some psychotic German 5th colon) the situation is pretty unpredictable anyways. Simply, more and more crazies crawling from the swamp and manically storming the levers at the helm, more general uncertainty, as we approach the thresholds.. PS the US is also due to roll-over lotsa trillions of t-bonds in this very time frame, and few (none) are interested to buy.. which is not necessarily the end of the world but certainly closer to end of an era.
One could expect the combo of such financial war, shooting war and economic disarray to unravel further on more serious level in the 2020s..
Not until the nuke and gasification card has been played.
Plenty of SMR nukes coming online supporting fracking/gasification and offshore oil, gas and coal extraction.
The Machine will be churning until BAU reaches 1:1 EROEI of energy extraction.
As I have stated, this joint will be lit until the end of the century. 🔥 🚬
The machine churning until 1-1 eroi? I strongly disagree. Churning is not exactly a quantifiable metric but we have seen a sizable decrease i n the things that high erois allow free explorations of travel ,art and music. i would say this is a reduction in ‘churning’ right now. This reduction is IMO not a temporary reduction but the start of a trend. As maximum power principle kicks in or kicks out rather this trend will decelerate. Since humans are rather ignorant on the whole that their existence is only the result of energy there will be social unrest which will accelerate chaos. Villains are created and used by political vampires. The EROI metric to determine 2 minutes to midnight is not reliable because of the complex systems required to sustain the current EROIs. When extraction goes to zero EROI does not have a lot of meaning. Here in the USA we have considerable capacity to manufacture high quality arms and ammunition and production is in full swing. Retail can not keep stocked. Everything gets bought as high prices as soon as it enters the retail market. im not sure what everybody thinks they will be shooting at. The idea that there is some sort of dark villain that must be destroyed and that a return to abundance will occur once is is achieved is counter productive to high EROIS that allow the very lifestyles that are the issue for conflict in the first place. People have lapped up the direa of polarized politics. i cant imagine that this is unintentional and its result will be conflict by the hotheads and a resulting crackdown in the name of order. The new austerity. The election seems fraught with probabilty of conflict. Trump seems to have taken a liking to “they stole the election” rhetoric of the left. Court challenges seem inevitable. The left views the supreme court as stolen via the mcconnel delay in appointment. Those that care about anything other than burning everything down. Really there seems to be no support of our election or system of justice or constitution. Fools. They probably think the magna carta is in the way of “justice” too. Not that they know what that is. What is clear is there will not be a clearing of the very nasty stench of polarized hatred that has been created after the election. WE could just get along and do the best we can but people seem to be intent on conflict. IMO this conflict will not lead to either the end of BAU or a new golden age but a authoritarian austerity. The fools will pretend they like the taste of the foul tyrannical soup they have cooked and only look wistfully at the feast of high eroi lifestyle they used to enjoy silently. Things might continue to function for awhile under a iron fist with a very thin and smelly velvet glove. If thats churning you might be right.
Good points BAUparadise.
The observable situation so far: someone decided it’s necessary to weaponize every levers against DJT under their thumb (msm, the security-intel agencies, mercenary color revolution gangs, stand down of police during riots, ..) means that there is real worry among at least some top faction grouping he could prematurely derail the whole program by not adhering fully to complex pre-scripted strategies.
You see there is an evident separation in pecking order between say DJT and Dem nominees this year, as the latter are at least of two levels lower ranking solitary bums, which could be hired for pennies (few dozen megabucks). While the DJT presents threat of potentially a wider clan – mafiosi competing structure of enduring prospect, much more expensive to either compensate-buy out, moreover with the pesky potential of eventually demanding his own chair in the top club, and that’s a no go, very expensive proposition (notional $Ts and double digit spendable billions at stake), also “organizational nightmare” as they owned the global joint already at the time Donnies grandpa was just starting out in that plywood bordello-corner shop in Alaska..
In short, this borders on civil war like reshuffles inside the elite and managing apparatus circles.. at the unfortunate time of reaching important energy crunch threshold (be it temporary or final). Not good at all.
There are scenarios and probabilities, you could be right, Russia and China have their next gen nuclear ready, apart from alt coal (now operational) and lot of arctic shelf resources, the US could on optimal conditions catch them in a decade or so and then perhaps theoretically even leapfrog in mass production of these. I just sense the mid 2020s present some sort of disequilibrium period, everything can’t be phased in and or scaled up as fast and easily as we discussed it, also with regard to ownership/bragging rights of new vs old elites which only complicate matters etc.
Now, back to our little universe.
Space is a black hole. It is black and a hole. A different kind of a black hole where the atoms are enjoying them selves and creating marvelous things.
“Scientists detect collision of huge black holes
Astronomers say they’ve detected the signal from a violent collision of two black holes that created a new one of a size that has never been seen before.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna106?__twitter_impression=true
If a combination of dissipative structures is another dissipative structure, I suppose the combination of two black holes might be another black hole.
Yes.
Maybe black holes are dissipative structures that need more energy or they collapse?
I found this article from 2008 that lists black holes as a type of dissipative structure:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1571064508000250
Life, gravity and the second law of thermodynamics
Abstract
We review the cosmic evolution of entropy and the gravitational origin of the free energy required by life. All dissipative structures in the universe including all forms of life, owe their existence to the fact that the universe started in a low entropy state and has not yet reached equilibrium. The low initial entropy was due to the low gravitational entropy of the nearly homogeneously distributed matter and has, through gravitational collapse, evolved gradients in density, temperature, pressure and chemistry. These gradients, when steep enough, give rise to far from equilibrium dissipative structures (e.g., galaxies, stars, black holes, hurricanes and life) which emerge spontaneously to hasten the destruction of the gradients which spawned them. This represents a paradigm shift from “we eat food” to “food has produced us to eat it”.
Pretty much correct, in my view. But if the Cosmos started as a singularity of zero size, as the Big Bang Theory states, then there was no gravitational potential energy, and the low entropy conditions must have another explanation. (Note: I do not endorse this theory; the Heisenberg Principle forbids singularities)
There’s a black hole in the center of our galaxy, which is a spiral galaxy and actually looks like a hurricane with the eye of the hurricane (the black hole) in its center.
That black hole is consuming the galaxy, which feeds it with energy.
What happens when the black hole has consumed the entire galaxy?
Malcopian
I had a similar experience after a deep meditation when I experienced that my soul woke up.
The experience lasted for two week and then ended. I didn’t understand the experience as well as you do. I had no other paranormal experiences with it.
Maybe our souls do enter our bodies so that they can sleep for awhile? But sometimes they awaken?
‘Seek and you will find’, the saying goes. If you wonder about the universe long enough, I suspect that the universe will respond and show you some of these things, to say, ‘Yes – there is MORE!’
I expect we do the hard physical graft on this plane as part of an apprenticeship, so that afterwards we can FLY.
Re: “A viable economy may very well be created based heavily on wind and solar. It will, however, support a much poorer world than we have known for many decades in the world’s advanced economies.”
Key words “much poorer”. Also much smaller i.e. the population needs to shrink.
Whether it’s viable depends on how much damage society self inflicts on the way down e.g. large scale riots, regional wars etc. Trashed infrastructure is unlikely to get replaced (not affordable).
Most likely the 2019 lifestyle is gone forever.
Most likely the 2019 lifestyle is gone forever.
Fast Eddy DID warn us that if we wanted to get our bucket list done we should be snappy about it.
and Foil Eddie was sure that The Collapse would have arrived by now.
oh look, up in the sky, is that the moon?
yes, 2019 was Peak IC.
He meant it mostly as sightseeing and experiencing the world in relative safety and comforts but it’s already here in the following sense as with tax on Chinese imports, drop of consumer demand/manufacturing pause/supplier chain shocks, some ~important (not only frivolous) items are beginning to disappear for ever as of now. The next stage would materialize and becoming even more apparent like 2-3 brands of fridges available and in certain sizes/models and disorderly delivery time only. Then nothing, the flow of most “complex” goods stops.. Some “lucky” countries / clusters perhaps patch up some domestic / regional analogues for a while more but at poorer quality and smaller production volume.
We still have science and technology that could be used to analyse supply chains. Nothing wrong with fewer choices. What is possible to make and maintain supply chain for. It ought not be like rocket science. People on this blog who have enormous technical smarts could at least begin with a taxonomy of supply chains, using GIS maps, etc. It would be a service to civilization to get the ball rolling. If not here, where?
Can’t L.A. California get a break?
50-60 MPH Santa Ana Winds To Rake L.A. This Week As Fires Rage; Utilities May Cut
Power
Tom Tapp
September 7, 2020, 8:45 PM EDT· Yahoo News
The National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning for Ventura and Los Angeles Counties on Wednesday and Tuesday. The NWS alert says early season Santa Ana Winds will create “critical fire danger” in many areas:
Meanwhile, the entity that operates California’s electrical grid is warning that local power providers may “begin Public Safety Power Shutoffs to keep communities safe from wildfires.”
After power lines were responsible for the deadly Camp Fire in Northern California and the Woolsey Fire that ripped through Agoura Hills, Calabasas and Malibu in 2018, power providers like Southern California Edison, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power and PG&E are quick to cut power to lines in wildfire-prone areas
…..
The DWP urged people to set air conditioners to 78-82 degrees and “skip laundry and heavy appliance use.”
Those experiencing a power outage were urged to report it at http://www.ladwp.com/outages or by calling 1-800-DIAL-DWP (1-800-342-5397) using the automated system.
No wonder there is an exodus of folks leaving and heading to Texas…
To be honest, when visiting myself decades ago couldn’t hear out of the City fast enough
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=u6YaJMrmxFM
Though the song has held up nicely
…..
California has been “living on the edge” for a long time. It may very well be going the way of downtown New York City.
Collapse has already hit some folks in Los Angeles California and other well known places that attracted multiples looking to live the Good Life American Dream.
See video of tent encampments among the beautiful neighborhoods
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4iZtKR0sVYU
Well, at least tents do not need building codes….
More to come soon enough….when the extensions run out…🤢
It looks like selling tents will be a growing business in the future. Unfortunately, this is not a favorable trend.
I hear bikes are also selling quite well.
Does not sound like “Big Ticket Items”
Art Berman has a good post up called Stop Expecting Oil & the Economy to Recover
He is expecting both supply and demand to fall, so he agrees with what I am saying.
He points out that the rig count is now too low for oil production not to fall. He estimates that there is about a one year lag between the time a well is drilled and the time that it leads to increased or decreased production. This chart one of his charts forecasting a big drop in tight oil production in the second quarter of 2021.
https://www.artberman.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/image-92.png
He explains why he doesn’t expect much benefit from the many “Drilled but Uncompleted Wells.” About half of the cost is in completion, according to him. Some wells are not worth completing without much higher oil prices, so will be left unfinished.
Berman mentions dissipative structures. He refers to Nate Hagens as the source of some of his ideas. As far as I know, I was the first one talking about dissipative structures with respect to the economy. There have been quite a few oil writers who have picked up on the idea, including Richard Heinberg.
Near the end, Berman comes up with a future I don’t see:
Gail,
I see the arguments, I have heard Art for many years beginning in DC at ASPO.
Whenever the last ASPO meeting in DC occurred he had tight oil as a retirement party – it was a long party and the oil came out of the ground and helped keep things going.
Now solar and wind are the next thing – maybe, but Google engineers threw up their hands and said essentially they didn’t see a way. If it worked, they had basically infinite capital to make it work.
Yes, you were the first person I remember speaking of dissipative systems, it took a while to understand what you meant with the pick up sticks, to look at it as a self organizing system. So far from what I can see your ideas are a basis to build on, try various ideas and maybe gain some understanding what is and what is not possible going forward. From what I see, the complexity is becoming very difficult to navigate and requires incredible knowledge to understand. That is a big problem in social equity.
Dennis L.
tonight it’s WTI at $39
I know Art Berman from my Oil Drum days. I have met him in person more than once. He is a good public speaker. He has very definite ideas, and he doesn’t like them challenged at all.
I didn’t fit in at TheOilDrum.com very well because I was talking about financial aspects related to oil limits, and the fact that there was no real reason to think that the reserves in the ground could actually be pumped out. I kept pointing out inconvenient things that would go wrong if an attempt was made to go to electric cars and a renewables-only existence.
Nate Hagens probably had the background closest to mine, but he was willing to come up with a happily ever-after scenario that many people liked. Of course, I know Nate Hagens well, as well, and have met him in person multiple times.
This you tube video starring AL GORE explains the worlds next step the green economy so watch it , it may keep things going for a while longer
I listened to the first few minutes of this. He is going to tell us about the perils of global warming. This is caused by treating the atmosphere as an open sewer for our CO2 emissions.
Why doesn’t he tell us the perils of getting off fossil fuels too quickly? A fast reduction in smog and other aerosols will lead to a spike in world temperatures, as we are seeing now.
Also, if he knows so much, why didn’t he run for President? He is “only” 72, so he would be a at least somewhat younger than Joe Biden (who is 77 now, but would be 78 by the time he takes office).
Further up, some folks seemed to be rather blandly accepting or assuming a socialist future. Problem with this is that it requires a Big State to implement.
From a comment on the Berman article: “For the Civilisation itself, the predicament cannot be won as – “in an Energy system, Control is what consumes Energy the most”, and that’s why Maxwell’s demon experiment in Physics always fails.”
I like that: “Control is what consumes Energy the most.”
“Further up, some folks seemed to be rather blandly accepting or assuming a socialist future. Problem with this is that it requires a Big State to implement.”
the USA has that.
(I have a reply held up in moderation that says more.)
speaking for myself, it’s about a more socialist economy, while the (far from ideal) voting democracies will remain.
I see it as a choice: move forward under the same heavily regulated free market capitalism and collapse sooner, or have the Big State take over essential industries to kick the can farther down the road.
as we have seen in 2020, the Big State is trying to save all of the nonessential failing airlines. That’s not the real deal, just a sign of what even supposedly “conservatives” will do to try to keep the system running.
the big deal will be when energy industries are saved by bailouts handouts zero% loans nationalization etc whatever it takes, even if it means a socialisation of the economy, which will be ever more necessary in the years ahead.
capitalist on the way up the energy slope, and socialist on the way down.
Well let me pu it this way: We will have something like a health signalling app for our personal security and then it will add an identity token. The next upgrade will bring Central Bank Digital Currency to your phone and then you will be locked in. When this is accomplished and the riots shot down we will switch to a token based resource currency that will let you only consume as much resources in a year that a state grants you. This will be implemented using 5G (check) and smartphones (check) and the platform tech companies like Google apple and so on (check). Did someone say “social credit sytem)? (check) I do not see a huge control infrastructure required, when switching off your money supply will simply “kill” your social live. You might want to become a refugee in Somalia or Yemen in that case so you will still have a pretty good chance of survival.
david, I did’t say the US doesn’t have a lot of gov. infrastructure. Still, overtly socialist countries have even more. And, you’re right, our financial system has been greatly socialized and they will want to do more of that. With the lockdowns, it seems like they want to precipitate us going Venezuelan, where everyone ends up looking to the State for provision.
A truly capitalist country would let the banks, airlines, tc. go bankrupt and allow for re-orgs at some lower energy level. We will really need to hack off some gangrenous limbs damn quick (another example is the bloated and dysfunctional public education sphere), but that won’t be allowed.
I was mainly thinking about the Control aspect. In Italy, you have to let the gov. know where you are at all times by formally registering your presence (holdover from fascist days); they can ask for your “papers” while you are riding the bus. All the newspapers are under gov. control (they kind of have them divvied up by political party.. the parties also being subsidized by the gov.) and all the journalists are licensed by the State. I asked a communist why someone couldn’t just print up a little pamphlet without the supervision of a State journalist. Shocked at the suggestion, he said “Because *then*, there’d be NO CONTROL.” (like I was some kind of retard). This is the kind of fine-grained control I was thinking about. Running a nationwide totalitarian social-credit system with all of its phone gear and servers and processing and facial recognition is costly. What they will do without the Internet is anyone’s guess.
I stumbled across a strange-yet-intriguing blog piece written by a guy by the (fake, I assume) name of “Moldbug”. It was a long piece about how the U.S. has long been communist. His writing style is discursive and some of the connections he makes are awfully subtle.. I couldn’t get as much as I wanted out of it the first time I read it. I will have to try again. But not tonight.
https://www.unqualified-reservations.org/2013/09/technology-communism-and-brown-scare/
The Brown Scare doesn’t have to do with skin color, rather fear of Brownshirts.
Maduro is still holding on to power however.
It is certainly organization that consumes energy, and the tighter the organization, the more energy is consumed.
Globalization is part of our organization. That seems to be leaving us.
All of the high level political organizations seem to be at risk, whether they are the European Union (or even the United Kingdom), China, the United States, or India. If the world economy starts breaking up, socialist control will not actually provide much goods and services for each of the individual units. Wind energy in Scotland won’t be worth much, unless it can be sold elsewhere, and total output balanced with natural gas, for example. Renewables lose their value, as trading areas become smaller. Electric transmission lines become more difficult to maintain.
WTI $39
Stock market headed down again today.
A few months ago, I posted an article from Art where he said something similar, wind and solar are the future. But he was also very clear, it would require both a drastic reduction in population and reduction in personal energy consumption. I don’t think he gave figures, but a 90% drop in both would help. I assume these are the sort of figures he would have in mind.
or there’s this
don’t know what to make of it–laugh–cry–beat head against wall
OFW’ers please comment
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/thermal-blocks-technology-to-convert-coal-fired-power-station/12638462
It would have to be awfully cheap and abundant to matter, and we would still be left with only electricity. Our food and transport sectors operate on oil. Also, our construction sector.
This is an interesting technology….it seems similar to the German approach to store heat with large rock pile mass, then extract the heat later. There is no mention of how costly it is, nor of how long each individual manufactured ‘block’ will remain viable under constant thermal cycling. I think at this point cost is not considered a factor since governments will spend anything necessary to go ‘renewables’. There will definitely be losses involved for each cycle, pumping water or steam, but It may be a viable storage technology. The big question is how large a pile of blocks are required per kWatt.
Another point to consider is “What are the unintended Consequences of this technology?” ….more pollution from mining and constant replacement of the blocks on a periodic basis? It would seem that the blocks, could be reused as building materials when they are replaced…unless they are toxic, which may be likely.
Storing heat in rocks does not seem like a good idea. First, they have less than half the thermal capacity of plain old water; secondly, they are harder to gather, put together, and insulate. And finally, how do you get the heat out of them?
I agree Robert, water or liquid salt is the only efficient heat storage medium.
I suspect somebody got a “green” government grant to study rock heat retention.
More money down the drain.
“SEAS-NVE,” a Danish energy company was developing storing heat in crushed rock using air blowing technology….as of a year ago.
Also,
Siemens Gamesa to install hot-rocks-heat storage for wind energy in Germany.
“It will feature about 1,000 tons of rock fill which will be able to provide 30 MWh of electric energy at temperatures of 600°C. Via a steam turbine, the heat can be re-converted into electricity. A generator rated at 1.5 megawatts will produce energy for up to 24 hours.”
I doubt it is hardly cost effective. You incur huge losses transferring from electric to steam (or air) and later reversing those processes.
But that is how crazy this green thang has become…as long as there is gov mandates and money.
instead of a lifestyle where energy production is a necessary add-on
We are slipping into an existence where:
energy production forms our lifestyle and life itself is necessary add on
“Japanese trading house Sumitomo Corp 8053.T has sold all its stake in the Marcellus shale gas project in the United States for a undisclosed sum, it said on Monday in a statement…
““We have sold our stake as it is difficult to predict future prices of natural gas, and as it may take a long time to gain profit contribution from the project and its development may not proceed as planned even after the prices recover,” a Sumitomo spokesman said on Tuesday.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sumitomo-corp-gas-un/japans-sumitomo-sells-all-of-its-stake-in-us-marcellus-shale-gas-project-idUSKBN25Z03T
“Difficult to project” corresponds to “way too low now and hard to see a way to a sustained higher price.”
Amazing! I suppose centuries have elapsed since this kind of “diplomacy” was usual.
I see the image on the phone version, but not on PC, it matches the transcript
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/09/07/russias-basic-instinct-dig-provokes-spat-with-ally-serbia-a71362
I see just another scene of the soap opera politics became with television and now virtual social media. In both, vulgarity reigns by default, that is, by an express majority. The age of gentleman politicians ended perhaps in 1918, since mass media neccessarily brings demagogy and i’m a sure a true gentleman abhorrs demagogy!
Interesting photo: but I suppose if Trump and the Serbian chap had sat side by side in those nice comfy armchairs by a coffee table the headlines would have been: ‘Trump (Russian asset) cuddles up to Russian ally’, or some such tripe.
Russians have, generally, rough tongues and a sometimes crude sense of humour, which I always found rather wearing.
Interesting news from a couple of the smaller YT news channels that focus on China, re the Three Gorges dam. The rains have never stopped since June and floods still ongoing. Until two days ago, up to 11 of the three-gorges flood gates were open at full pelt. But they all got switched off some time over the last couple of days, leaving 3G dam-watchers rather confused.
The Yangtze is still in flood, but the water level is dropping at the 3G dam, and the flood gates are all switched off? One individual is speculating that there is massive leakage under the dam, or near the bottom of it. If so, it should be reported by the main western-based China news channels on YT through the week. If not, I won’t mention anything again.
Thanks for the tip! I looked on Google, but didn’t see anything yet.
Malcopian
Are you an experiencer of the UFO phenomenon?
Or…are you an experiencer of paranormal phenomena?
Or…both?
If both…then…do you think they are connected?
I have only seen UFO’s and am interested in the phenomenon…as well as in the paranormal phenomena.
The video you were searching for sound familiar.
Maybe it war in a documentary about Harvard professor John Mack’s study into the experience phenomenon?
I didn’t hear John Mack’s name mentioned, though maybe the video I saw was just an excerpt.
Yoshua, thank you. I just googled ‘Mack’ and ‘ab ductees’ and found a shorter version of the program that I was looking for on YouTube. Sadly it doesn’t include the bit about the orbs filmed on the home video, that I mentioned earlier. Mysterious orbs have often been noted in ab ductee situations.
The video is in several parts, Yoshua. Go to the 6 minute point of Part 4, then watch. You’ll see the orbs that I mentioned. Thank you again, Yoshua.
Paranormal phenomena. Two close encounters of the ridiculous kind (not your bog standard ETs at all), giving me to understand that there is more than one reality (e.g. dimension). I won’t go into detail here, as I regard it as too personal. We live in a multidimensional multiverse inhabited by humanoids. That’s clear to me now.
When I read NASA scientist Tom Campbell’s ‘My big TOE’ (‘theory of everything’) and he asked, ‘What is your reality frame?’, my mind opened and I began to understand. He means that there is more than one reality. So forget about ‘This reality is real, but THAT can’t be real, even though I experienced it.’
Are the paranormal and yoofoes connected? The inhabitants of yoofoes are higher up the scale of being than we are. They have abilities that we normally do not which we therefore have to call paranormal. Just as birds can fly but we had to wait centuries to emulate flight by means of technology and science. If something exists in science, then it must exist in nature first, and the chances are that some beings in the multiverse will have it as a natural ability. Bear in mind that scientists are now experimenting at a low level with tractor beams and teleportation. Then think about what I just wrote. I’m serious.
So the paranormal to us is normal to (some) higher beings.We just don’t understand it. If you have a close encounter it may change you. You find you can do things you didn’t know you could. For instance, I discovered the healing power of chi. JMG corroborated it. Todd Murphy, a scientist and colleague of the late Michael Persinger, also corroborated it. He told me to try projecting it from the palm of my hands, rather than just from my fingers – or maybe even learn Reiki (which I haven’t and know nothing about).
Yoofoes, dreams and the afterlife are connected via the subtle body. Higher beings, the mystics say, vibrate at a higher rate. They mystics say they exist on a different wavelength from us and are therefore made of thinner material: ‘subtle material’. They are subject to a different physics – just as our own ‘subtle body’ is, which we use in sleep and dreams. That’s why in dreams you find you have this one extra ability – you find you can levitate or even fly, quite naturally. Why? Why this one extra property? Because you’re in your subtle or astral body.
When you die, your subtle body peels off and enters the afterlife. If you are too attached to this earth, you will remain earthbound. This is where ‘ghosts’ or ‘spirits’ come into the picture. Some psychics can see or sense the subtle bodies of people or animals that have remained earthbound. And in your dreams, in your subtle body, you can meet the dead, who are also in their subtle body. How often do you dream of an old friend or lover, for the first time for decades, then you learn that they recently died but you never knew it? I’m convinced they can deliberately seek you out in your sleep and dreams – and they do. Weird logic to those who remain materialists, as I used to be. But I seem to be going through a period of ‘gnosis’. At times I have watched with astonishment as reality has gone weird around me. My Dawkins-like scepticism has gradually been worn down by such experiences and coming across reasons for them in relevant books. Therefore I can’t really complain if people scoff at me – I did exactly the same when I was younger. But they’ve not had my experiences. We know that when you die, you get your life review. It flashes past you, and if you’ve read my words here, you will briefly see them again, and if you then you find yourself in the afterlife or afterdeath, you will think, with astonishment, well, that that weirdo (me!) was right after all ! It’s entirely possible that I’m wrong, but I’ve only come to these beliefs out of necessity. And if so, I would be particularly pleased not to have an afterlife, since I have never asked for one and it would violate my free will.
As for yoofoes being made of subtle material, you will know that John Keel and Jacques Vallee conjectured with astonishment from their experiences that these craft must be ‘interdimensional’, due to their ability to waft in and out of our dimension. So that correlates with their being made of ‘subtle’ material. One British air marshal called them ‘paraphysical’ – his own phrase.
And the ancient Hindu Vedic texts have tales of vimanas (spacecraft) and ‘gods’ who are probably just higher beings from the higher (subtle) dimensions. And what the hell are such ancient texts doing talking about spacecraft and beams and weapons of mass destruction anyway? Read ‘Parallel Identities’ by the late Richard L Thompson – he pieces it all together. You will understand that much more about the multiverse after reading that book.
“Therefore I can’t really complain if people scoff at me – I did exactly the same when I was younger.”
good to know. 😉
(scoff)
everyone is unique.
(scoff)
we all perceive Reality imperfectly.
(scoff)
The paranormal is perfectly normal. ‘He who taste knows.’
And yet Greer, I believe, seems to adhere to the view that UFO stories are a cover for military projects in the US.
One of my cousins claims to have seen a UFO off the coast in Catalonia, the dogs ran away, too. Who knows?
As for invisible entities, the Jinn are said to have been made of fire by Allah, and to live alongside men unseen.
Questions that occur:
Can you define “subtle” and “vibrate”? “Spirit” is another term that I suspect may not actually mean anything, other than to signal a certain view of the mind / body problem,
When you talk about higher dimensions, other realities, or the multiverse, are these referring to the same idea? Do you mean “higher” dimensions in the mathematical sense, or is your usage more poetic / “metaphysical”? What makes one “higher” or “lower” than other? (People used to talk this way about evolution, so that humans, for example, were thought to be “higher” or “more evolved” than apes. Biologists no longer talk this way.)
A vimana is a flying chariot of the gods, often very elaborate like a palace. The God of the Western religions is also sometimes depicted on a throne-chariot. Could this not just be mythology? Does everything in the Hindu epics have to have happened?
Subtle – thin, thinner than normal -as regards matter and flesh. ‘Vibrate’ – this refers to wavelength. I’m not a physicist, but I think it refers to wavelength and the speed at which matter vibrates in a particular dimension or wavelength. A good metaphor here would be that the beings of the multiverse live, co-exist, in different dimensions that could be compared to TV channels. Our mind and senses tune in to only our own dimension, but we could get beings from other dimensions coming in. Sometimes beings made of subtle material can be visible in our dimension.
Spirits – I prefer to speak of entities, or creatures, living in other dimensions of the universe, and made of subtle material – sometimes with the ability to materialise in our dimension. Jacques Vallee thinks some such entities appear to be able to manipulate time and space, whether that is an innate ability or merely a technological ability.
Entities in ‘subtle’ dimensions often show greater powers than we have – be they powers or innate abilities – therefore we think of them as ‘higher’ in that sense. But there’s no conventional sense of up or down here, just as higher education does not take place in the sky. The afterlife – if you believe it exists – is often thought of as a subtle and therefore ‘higher’ dimension that you progress to after your apprenticeship here on Earth. As is the ‘astral plane’, which you journey through in your subtle body as your gross physical body sleeps, allowing you to meet the dead. I’ve explained how I’ve had the dead apparently turn up in my dreams, then later I learn they’ve recently died. Peter Fenwick corroborates this in one of his YouTube videos.
Mythology? It could be, but some of the texts talk of the vimanas scorching the hillsides with their flames, and the use of terrible beams as weapons and beams that knock you unconscious. This all seems a bit too advanced for peasants working the fields and dreaming of mere chariots. Also one text was quoted that described a vimana ascending into the sky, and describing that after a certain point, the sky was no longer blue, and you could see the stars twinkling like pinpricks in the darkness. There is just too much of this sort of stuff for supposed primitives. Then again, we have the idea of earthly catastrophes – there are legends of a great flood right around the world – overwhelming previous technological civilisations. We still don’t really know how the pyramids were built, and why it would take NASA to move some of the huge and heavy megaliths.
In different dimensions, time is reported as running at a different rate. In old tales of people who get abducted by the ‘fairies’, they return after a few hours (in their time) to discover that nobody recognises them and decades have passed. As others have pointed out, this concept is also very modern and Einsteinian.
science has demonstrated that the elemental table holds good throughout the univirse,
more of one element here–less there, but the same basic materials.
physical laws also govern the movements of the universe.
There are likely to be other sentient life forms, but they will be governed by the same physical laws as ourselves, existing as they do, in an environment evolved from the same elements and compounds
That being so, it would seem to suggest that there are no ‘ethereal beings’ that exist beyond our consciousness.
We have the power to ‘imagine’ them of course,, but that does not make them ‘exist’.
Then we move to the next level:
Ah..ha–but you cannot prove they do not exist. The ultimate fallback ‘proving ground’ by which any notion can be given credibility by the proposer.
At which point we reach the teapot analogy by Bertrand Russel:
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/38828-if-i-were-to-suggest-that-between-the-earth-and
Which says it better than I can
The idea of a china teapot in that situation is ridiculous and meant to be, as part of his reductio ad absurdum argument.
Millions of people have noted inexplicable phenomena down the ages. Even if something was reported eons ago, we can’t assume that all the people living then were stupid, deluded, or both. Clearly you haven’t watched the recent History Channel programmes about such phenomena, which have been recorded on radar doing impossible stuff and have astonished the top hi-tech and military folk interviewed in these documentaries.
Mysteries remain in science, Norman. It hasn’t come to a dead stop. What about dark matter? “Dark matter is a form of matter thought to account for approximately 85% of the matter in the universe and about a quarter of its total mass–energy density or about 2.241×10−27 kg/m3.” Yet we don’t know wtf it is!
Science marches on, Norman, and when we investigate something outside our ken, we need hypotheses to hang them on: theories to test. So above I explained the theories. Science marches on, so one day we will maybe learn more.
I can imagine Norman living in the 1700s and, on being told there were black swans in Australia, he would have ridiculed the idea, and even if shown one he would have insisted that all black swans had clearly been painted black and gone to his death holding to that.
But science marches on, Norman, even if you don’t. 😉
I think we can accept that Russell had a greater philosophical mind than yours or mine. And I am aware that science hasnt come to a dead stop.
I am also aware of ‘dark matter’–what concerns me is that the concept of it is that it is ‘out there’ when in fact whatever it is, is ‘here’ as well, affecting us as well as everything else in the universe.
Therefore it affects ‘us’ as well. ‘We’ are part of ‘it’. It is balanced in all of us.
there isn’t a set of physical laws applicable beyond pluto, and another set controlling us
I am also aware of unexplained phenomena down the millenia
Where would you like to start?
Burning bushes?
Red Sea pedestrians?
Jesus in Missouri?
All real to millions of people, and beyond question.—their children are taught that–down the generations, and are mightly offended if contradicted.
Such certainties are part of their life support.
you can’t pick and choose your myths and legends.
The point you miss or choose to ignore, is that humankind is a unique species in being able to examine the deep past and conceive of far future.
We sat around campfires and looked for reasons for everything. We bury our dead facing a certain way. After 4 generations a story becomes a legend, after 10 it can become religious truth.
We tell tall tales. We can imagine, Animals cannot draw on xx generations of history, or plan the future for their offspring.
We can and do.
We counted 365 intervals before a sun shadow came back to its start point. How many generations before a man creature stuck a stick in theground, and sat there for a year to work that out? Remember somebody had to feed him all that time.
no other animal pays another to sit and think.
We saw unpleasant things spew from the earth, and mostly good things emanate from the sky.
Heaven and hell—in the absence of any other explanation
The certainty you have about ‘unexplained’ phenomena also manisfested itself in witchburnings in the 1700s. (my ‘evolutionary level’) Are you seriously suggesting my thinking should revert to that ? Witches were certainly real then. People swore on oath to seeing them fly.
Aerodynamics?–nonsense. Witches fly. Thats why your cows died last night. In UK we had witchfinders.
https://earlofmanchesters.co.uk/who-was-matthew-hopkins-the-witchfinder-general/
One must assume that it was in the witchfinder’s interests to find more of them.
But don’t let the hysteria stop there:
McCarthy started the same hysteria, to explain the unexplained.
“Where would you like to start? B urn ing bus hes?” Plenty of those nowadays. They don’t need a paranormal explanation.
“Red Sea pedestrians?” Where did I say we should look at those specifically, when they happened long ago, if at all. The ancient Vedic Hindu texts were describing technological weapons that should have been beyond the imagination of supposedly primitive people, that have parallels with some modern weapons. That ought to tell us something.
“you can’t pick and choose your myths and legends.” – I’m not talking about myths and legends. I’m talking about perplexing phenomena witnessed by millions of serious, intelligent, modern people, with weird correlations. Phenomena that leave behind physical traces and that have sometimes been tracked by machines. We need theories to get a handle on them. Where have I suggested or advocated witch burning? But serious people such as John Mack, who have suggested investigating perplexing phenomena, have lots their job because of ridicule by people, materialists, like you, and still do, because you reject them out of hand. You haven’t commented on the videos I posted, nor on the phenomena witnessed by Xabier or his friends, because your mind rebels against it. You can’t handle it, so you use smears and scare tactics. People of your ilke would never have investigated quantum mechanics, or even magnetism. But there are still known phenomena that are not properly understood, such as hypnotism, which was once ridiculed. Scientists are still perplexed at quantum mechanics, which suggests the power of mind over matter.
We need outstanding logical minds to investigate these astonishing phenomena. You want to label such minds as potential witchb urn ers and then b urn them yourself in advance. Your mind is not up to it. It is not open enough to accept the testimony of serious, hard-boiled, intelligent people: engineers, scientists, pilots, the military. You just want to shut them all down in advance and smear them with propaganda as potential witch-burners. You are not worthy of entering the debate. Get out of here!
not smearing at all
I was just picking a few well known odd occurences that are well known and widely believed. Which seemed reasonable to me. They happened long ago, true–but so did the Hindu vedic stuff I guess.
when an alien, or jesus, or a Hindu who has been reincarnated as a man and not a cockroach, shows up to prove me wrong, I’ll admit my mistakes.
As to hypnotism, or ‘healing’ I can do that to a very limited extent. So I certainly don’t ridicule it. Haven’t pursued it because I don’t know very much about what I’m doing. Not thought of it as a very big deal really.
Depends on the situation. I certainly don’t try to explain it or exploit it.
Can’t heal broken legs, plague or raise from the dead—outside my paygrade in that respect I’m afraid.
I don’t go into hysteria about proving or disproving it. Or anything else for that matter. You may have noticed that in this forum I rely on humour a lot. Humour can be difficult to put across to someone determined to see slights and affronts in every phrase.
a trait common to the zealot, whether godly or not.
None of it matters, try to accept that.
I recognise no god, so it matters not whether people say one exists or not. Same with ‘technologies’ that somehow no longer exist.
My mind rebels against nothing. Why should I waste brain energy on nonsense? What’s in other peoples heads is their problem, as long as they don’t physically infict it on me.
In the 17th c, where my thinking apparently belongs, witches were most certainly real—common agreement said so—- as was the devil and all his works
Those beliefs are still with us in vast areas of the world
John Mack?? You really expect serious response to the alien abduction stuff? Youve been watching too many repeats of Independence Day. Not good.
My bottom line is the known universe seems to be governed by common laws of physics, acting on known elementals.
come to think of it—the best thing would be for a being to show up and reverse the 2nd law of thermodynamics.
which is basically the basis of every ‘second coming” if you think about it
arrange that and I’m with you 100%
“John Mack?? You really expect serious response to the ay-le-en ab d uct ion stuff? Youve been watching too many repeats of Independence Day.”
Never even seen it and don’t know what it’s about. I don’t like the word ay-lee-en (cen sore d here) for a start. The video I linked to showed sane people troubled by an inexplicable phenomenon. Your mind doesn’t want to deal with that. Fair enough. Others do and want to find out what is behind it. There is masses of literature on weird phenomena: reliable witnesses and real physical evidence, but you continue to ignore that.
“As to hypnotism, or ‘healing’ I can do that to a very limited extent. So I certainly don’t ridicule it. Haven’t pursued it because I don’t know very much about what I’m doing.”
Then what about people or beings who might be able to do it to a far greater extent? Different only in degree but not in kind? You’re not willing to cross that barrier.
“My bottom line is the known universe seems to be governed by common laws of physics, acting on known elementals.”
SEEMS to be. KNOWN universe / physics. Your intellectual conservatism shines through. You are not interested in as yet ‘unknown’ physics, that is not yet understood but might be behind paranormal phenomena. Science can investigate and demystify the paranormal and discover the principles behind it that would make it normal. But you are not interested. Yes, stick to the known – for you. Energy etc. Einsteins are not made from intellects like yours.
Science explores the unknown. Norman can’t conceive of that. So, yes, please stick with the known and stay out of my conversations. You’re not up to it, you’re not acquainted with the relevant literature and investigations, and have nothing to offer. Anyway, we must return to Gail’s subjects and not digress too much.
My father taught himself hypnotism years ago (using materials he ordered) and used it very successfully in his medical practice. He regularly delivered babies using hypnosis of the mother to reduce pain. I believe that he sometimes used it at the scene of accidents as well.
I’d never heard of John Mack, but you brought him into this thread, not me
So I took the trouble to look him up–as he’s being proposed as a worthwhile scientific individual. knows lotsa stuff etc.
Then what do we find, relating to Mack?
Quote:
>>>>Elizabeth Loftus, professor of psychology at the University of California, Irvine, and an expert in the malleability of memory, said that Dr Mack “underestimated his own role in creating the recollections and beliefs” of his patients. “His use of hypnosis gave the method undeserved credibility.”<<<<
“Why should I waste brain energy on nonsense?
Norman, I agree with almost everything you say. My brain is designed to think the way you do. But I have been recently wondering looking at all the occult symbols that are round us. If there is a good reason to “waste brain energy” on those matters, it’s certainly because rich and powerful people who control our lives are interested in it. Aren’t you curious to know what they think, what they believe in?
In 1917 three young shepards “saw” Our Lay in a tree near Fátima, Portugal, and in October of the same year thousands of people “saw” with their own eyes the Sun zigzagging in the sky and other curious athmosferic phenomena. If the muslims could suspend the laws of physics in september 2001, i don’t see why God himself could not do the same on behalf of Virgin Mary.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miracle_of_the_Sun
seems reason able to me
Edwin Sidney V: “The Science of Fairy Tales”, Chs VII to IX, “The Supernatural Lapse of Time in Fairyland”, first published in 1891. You can find the relevant chapters online: http://cdn.preterhuman.net/texts/religion.occult.new_age/www.sacred-texts.com/neu/celt/sft/sft08.htm
Thank you, Robert. I think Graham Hancock was the last person I read who went into this subject, in his book ‘Supernatural’.
And we here thought we had the biggest BUBBLE….
Yahoo NewsYahoo News
Search query
Profile imageVincent
Bloomberg
A Bubble Scarier Than Big Tech Is Brewing in China
Shuli Ren
September 6, 2020, 7:57 PM EDT
(Bloomberg Opinion) — In China, an even scarier bubble than Big Tech is brewing. It’s engineered not by the nation’s notorious mom-and-pop investors, but professional stock pickers.
These days, even a soy sauce maker can be valued at 100 times earnings. And this is no penny stock: Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Co. is a blue chip with an $81 billion market cap. From pig farmers to manufacturers of China’s famous fiery liquor, the food and beverage industry has surpassed banks as the heavyweight in the benchmark CSI 300 Index. On average, the sector has rallied 60% this year.
This trade started to unwind last week. On Thursday, without warning, Foshan Haitian tumbled off its record high. The selloff widened to the entire sector Friday. Foshan dropped 14% in two days.
Unlike the retail-focused tech names in Shenzhen, these blue chips are chased by institutional investors. Mutual fund managers have allocated 11.8% of their money to food and beverage stocks on average, second only to healthcare, data compiled by Haitong Securities Co. show.
This comes just as mutual funds are raising money at record pace — at over 2 trillion yuan ($292 billion) from January to August, that’s more than all of 2019. No surprise, hybrid and stock funds got the lion’s share. This year’s bull market boosted managers’ performance, which in turn attracted inflows.
All that money has to go somewhere. Much as Beijing has advocated investing in young hard-tech stocks, professionals are still apprehensive. More than half of their money is allocated to companies on the main boards, which have profitability requirements.
Yes Sir, got to get back to fundamentals….as my High School Football Coach would preach!
One thing that keeps me going is seeing all this ponzi pyramid schemes come tumbling down.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_oIN1GQZ1mA
Perfect 💖 example
it is so inspiring to see that huge quantity of TP.
no shortage for those builders.
and such a solid pyramid!
is there no end to the optimism?
TPAU tonight, baby!
Sigh. Five million tonnes of limestone didn’t save Khufu from the tomb raiders. I doubt toilet paper will be a good deterrent.
Sounds like Socialism …
Japanese government exposed to 40% of $6.7 billion Nissan loans: sources
TOKYO (Reuters) – The Japanese government has guaranteed most of a loan to Nissan Motor Co from the Development Bank of Japan (DBJ), a source said, taking its guarantee to more than 40% of 713 billion yen ($6.7 billion) in finance for Japan’s No.2 automaker.
The hefty government guarantee suggests financial firms are cautious about helping to fund the automaker as it seeks to return to profitability and stop bleeding cash.
The government has guaranteed 104 billion yen of the 180 billion in loans from the DBJ, said the source with direct knowledge of the matter who declined to be identified as the information is not public.
DBJ and Nissan declined to comment. The Ministry of Finance could not immediately be reached for comment.
Three other sources told Reuters in May the government would guarantee part of a loan from Mizuho Financial Group Inc , aimed at helping Nissan ride out the COVID-19 pandemic.
The two guarantees, if confirmed, would put the government on the hook to the tune of 304 billion yen, or 43% of the total loans Nissan has secured from its main lenders to weather the COVID-19 pandemic, Reuters calculations show.
Nissan has also secured 120 billion yen from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group and 50 billion yen from Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group , the sources previously told Reuters. The government has not guaranteed any portion of these loans, the sources said.
Nissan had pledged to slice 300 billion yen from annual fixed costs and become a smaller, more efficient company after the pandemic exacerbated a slide in profitability that culminated in its first annual loss since fiscal 2008 in the year ended March.
(Reporting by Takashi Umekawa; Editing by Stephen Coates)
The lender of last resort…
A gradual socialisation of the economy and the financial sector seems to temporarily countervail systemic TRPF, with a particular locus in the energy sector, to somewhat maintain exergetic function in a socio-economic dissipative structure as the overall efficiency (EROI) of the system to maintain itself is lost. : )
A socialism of sorts may yet be the final stage of capitalism.
Yes, we were warned….
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ix5qPzz8EvA
I’ll just quote the whole:
“A gradual socialisation of the economy and the financial sector seems to temporarily countervail systemic TRPF, with a particular locus in the energy sector, to somewhat maintain exergetic function in a socio-economic dissipative structure as the overall efficiency (EROI) of the system to maintain itself is lost. : )
yes yes yes yes yes.
I didn’t comment on your previous TRPF posts, but this is an excellent summary.
The Economy (a dissipative structure) definitely WILL COLLAPSE if the present form is allowed to continue: a mixed economy of a heavily regulated free market capitalism plus the late corporatism addition.
but why let it collapse when “a gradual socialisation of the economy” can kick the can down the road for many more years?
“A socialism of sorts may yet be the final stage of capitalism.”
this has already started, with the twofold 2020 bailouts of consumers ($600 per week! of free money MMT) and companies (gov thinks they must save every failing airline).
farther down the road, most energy companies must be kept running, no matter what level of “socialisation”.
Yes, also because govs can (fearing disorderly chaos vector) at least for a while administer austerity and prioritizing-triage policies on the public and the economy aka circling the wagons or attempted quasi autarky.
Hence, I’d always expect the longer-delay collapse scenario option with higher probability, while obviously many “smaller yet nasty events” along the road should be expected anyway. Namely, consisting of severe curtailing of personal consumption (less carz, air travel, foreign vacations, less *Chinese consumable imports, .. etc) imminently.
*this is very peculiar topic since “even the tame” German govs just publicly announced few days ago the need for re-balancing out of existing investments in Chinese production (joint ventures); so there are evidently SERIOUS under currents already at play which we mere mortals would fully notice and experience with notable delay in few years time..
I agree with all that.
just think, we are the optimists here.
In addition, socialism has historically demonstrated much greater competence in controlling the masses. And in order to manage decline and austerity forever, it makes sense to recall techniques of historically compelling effectiveness. And the best school of repression was undoubtley the fascist one. 99.5% guaranteed effectiveness and avaliable in two colors: black or red. After all, how many worker’s strikes, popular riots or demonstrations have occured during Mr. Adolf or Mr. Joseph’s terms? In practice, nilch.
So a techno-fascist boot in the face is on our way, and the worst of all is that the boot (some brand it Reboot) is our best hope, since the alternative would be a fast and catastrophic desintegration of all this. Should we toast to the success of the planners?
Citizens certainly like the idea of socialism. It even seems to work for a time, so it may indeed be a way to kick the can down the road a bit.
A person has to think about the idea of socialism (and probably of renewable energy), not from a perspective of whether they will work for any long term. Instead, the question is, “Given the state of the economy now, are they the band aids whose side effects will be most desirable in the near future?” What the systems promise to do is irrelevant; it is more how the overall system, together with these views for the short term, can actually perform for a short time. Will renewables be a sufficient distraction from our energy problems, for example?
Socialism surely knows ways to make people crave it, promising them security and work (whatever that means today).
The big question is of course for how long can be streched that “short” time of, let me call it Pax Globalistana? I have no idea. Ten years of new normal would be awesome, but i have a hard time seeing how any state could maintain COG, in an energy decline/rupture situation. with all the inevitable violence around, along “decades”.
I refer “decades” not in relation to you of course, but because is a word i see ventilated here sometimes, with a confidence that puzzles me a bit. But who knows if i’m only thinking as the pessimist i’ve ever been?.
“In addition, socialism has historically demonstrated much greater competence in controlling the masses.”
mainly, the move forward would be a gradual increasing socialisation of the economy.
I think (far from ideal) voting democracies will continue.
but the 2020 USA example is a R president, supposedly opposed to the idea of a Socialist government, handing out free money MMT to millions of citizens and thousands of companies.
the bigger deal will be whatever socialist economic programs are implemented in the years ahead to keep FF companies running, whether handouts bailouts zero% loans nationalization etc, many ways to circumvent free market capitalism when it will become necessary to save energy industries.
“Should we toast to the success of the planners?” Im afraid the answer to that is yes. Socialism will work as long as the currency holds value. Right now the property value in rural areas is increasing very very fast. There is some increase in real value due to the disturbances in the cities but also dollar destruction methinks. towns that had a occasional 30k house and some 60 k houses, those houses are are 125k now. rural properties with acreage and seclusion have seen even more increase. The neighbor just sold for 2 million. He bought for 100k ten years ago. the property sold in two days sight unseen by a out of state buyer. This pretty much eliminates working class home ownership. I dont see how anyone could afford a home at 125k with two people working at 10-15 a hour. I would be very pleased if socialism kicks the can. I say biden wins. The kids are all for it. Its only a matter of time. The question is dollar destruction. Everybody and i mean everybody even grandma knows that only one thing is giving the “markets” their current value the printing press. You cant eat gold and the average joe is too lazy to own something like that anyway. Cash is losing value like cow poop in texas. That leaves real estate. The cleanest dirty shirt. IMO we are going to see inflation in consumer goods. If they can keep it at 3% we might kick the can for a while. Higher and the printing press has to go offline. But we all know it cant go offline and wont go offline. So ten years of can kicking with everything getting weirder and weirder? The rich getting “richer” via dollar destruction and the working class kept alive by the state?
Restaurants, good ones, landmark restaurants, are throwing in the towel. A lot of small business owners have only kept going for their employees. I talk to them they really dont want to keep at it in this environment. 65 years old you really dont want to be spending your time keeping people in a job no matter how much you love them. UBC is coming or people and their children will be on the streets. Mechanics plumbers electricians they will still be working. Cashiers servers and cooks not so much.
So socialism must come. As long as currency still buys basic needs things wont fall apart. It will be a twisted distorted BAU but beggars cant be choosy. Long live BAU!
Socialism has easy moral trappings in its favour. “Would it not be better if we could all work together for the good of all?”
Of course, Marxism is an ‘historical, materialist’ view of socio-economic development rather than a moral interpretation of social development. Socialism is not supposed to occur in the linear, epochal development until capitalism has developed the quality of the means of production to the utmost of its capacity to do so. Socialism is due only once bourgeois property relations become an hindrance to the further development of the economic base, just as feudal property relations gave way as capitalism developed. The industry developed under capitalism is supposed to be the material basis of socialism.
The present, actual situation is rather one in which the responsibilities of bourgeois property, essentially to maintain profitability, are gradually giving way to a gradual socialisation of the responsibility to provide the running costs of companies (an aspect of profitability) in order to countervail systemic TRPF with a key locus in the energy sector, just to maintain what we can of systemic exergetic function.
It is likely that the responsibility of company ownership, to maintain profitability, will be socialised without a socialisation of the actual property ownership, at least initially. High taxes will be used to redistribute what profit and wages remain in the system to maintain the system in its weak points, particularly its weak key points, like energy production. They can also just print money, QE, ZIRP, state aid, as they have been doing since 2008, which is the same phenomenon of the gradual socialisation of the responsibilities of bourgeois ownership.
Whether, and at what point, the process of the socialisation of the economy takes on a full blown revision of the property relations remains to be seen. Likely the energy sector will be nationalised first – but who knows what the ideological capitalist state will do? It is not that far out to socialise the ‘commanding heights’ of the economy as Lenin termed it, * but the need for a socialisation, at least of the property responsibilities, goes far beyond that, it is systemic. Whether the claims of bourgeois ownership can be maintained without the responsibilities of ownership remains to be seen.
A socialism of sorts is then the final stage of capitalism, not as a grand new era that will allow a further expansion of the material base for centuries to come, but rather to keep capitalism going for a bit longer. Whether outright socialist ownership will put in a brief appearance as industrial civilisation winds down remains to be seen. Socialist property relations may even remain after collapse but that is crystal ball territory, the chaos of collapse may not allow that.
Yes, a ‘moralistic’ socialist ideology might help to keep the citizens in line for a bit longer, otherwise the state will likely stick with some sort of corny ‘nationalism’ to try to rally the citizens to its material interests. Likely the state will go for whatever they think will ‘work’.
* “In Marxism–Leninism, the “commanding heights of the economy” are certain strategically important sectors of private industry. Some examples of industries considered to be part of the “commanding heights” include public utilities, natural resources, and sectors relating to foreign and domestic trade.” – Wiki
So, TRPF is specifically a theory about the ‘break down’, or ‘collapse’ of systemic capitalist function. It is the tendency and mechanism by which it becomes not only ‘necessary’ to realise the ‘possibility’ of socialism, as provided by the capitalist development of the economic base, but also ‘unavoidable’.
Socialism however will not be ‘necessary’ as preconceived, in order to further advance the development of the economic base, but rather to maintain what we can of it, at least temporarily. In that sense it will be ‘unavoidable’, at least in terms of the gradual socialisation of property responsibilities.
Thus the theory of capitalist breakdown through TRPF, and of a transition to socialism, remains relevant without the preconception of infinite economic ‘progress’; it has its import within the scenario of limited economic progress and indeed contraction. Then socialism functions not to advance but to somewhat retain economic gains as systemic TRPF (EROI) takes its toll on systemic capitalist function.
The bourgeoisie are the ones at the head of the queue to the chopping block indeed.
The general purpose worker and the capital have no need for useless middle men easily replaceable with computation.
An absolute and observable truth is the dance of the unemployable both with and without worthless diplomas and degrees on the streets of Portland.
They are feeling the burn from the relentless progression of automation, while the nurse, plumber, engineer and carpenter are busier than ever.
The useless eaters are trying to rile up the worker, but no one useful is interested in joining the ranks of sanctimonious hypocrites and violent dregs.
Can you imagine that 28% of the Welsh are that naive to think that TP will actually ‘level up’ Wales to levels of productivity and living standards comparable to London and the SE?
Investment and economic development have deliberately been centred around London and SE for generations to give a quick optimum return, and the conventional wisdom has long been that it is far too late to do anything about that.
UK has 9 of the 10 poorest regions in Northern Europe and the worst wealth disparities of any country in EU between its richest and poorest regions. The UK negligence of its regions is without parallel anywhere in Europe.
The only reason why TP is talking about ‘levelling up’ now is because of the growing strength of independence movements, with record levels of support in Wales now at one-third support for independence, 55% in Scotland and 49% in NI.
How cynical is that? TP never delivered on any of its promises made before the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. Many of the older ‘patriotic’ gullible types will no longer be around to vote in Indy2.
The Welsh are not taken in by TP but still – 28% are that gullible, even there.
> Almost three quarters in Wales ‘not confident’ UK Government will deliver on ‘levelling up’ promise, poll finds
Almost three quarters of people in Wales are not confident that the UK government will deliver on its promise to improve the economy of underperforming areas, an exclusive ITV Wales poll has found.
Boris Johnson pledged when he became prime minister in July 2019 that his government would lead a “levelling up” of prosperity – including higher living wages and higher productivity – across the UK.
He said, it was time “we unleashed the productive power not just of London and the South East” – but all parts of the UK.
He reiterated that promise to “unite and level up” the country after the Conservatives’ landslide General Election victory in December, when the party won seats traditionally held by Labour in Wales, and across the north of England – the so-called “red wall”.
But, an exclusive poll by YouGov for ITV Wales has found more than 70% of people are not confident that the UK government will deliver on that promise.
72% are not confident that levelling up will be delivered, including 53% of those who voted for the Conservative Party last December.
Previous research has found that Wales has, on average, more deprivation in its towns than any other region in England or Scotland.
In a report published by Cambridge University in January, researchers found seven towns in Wales have twice as much ‘severe deprivation’ than the average British town.
No Welsh town features in Britain’s 40 most economically improving areas.
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2020-09-06/almost-three-quarters-in-wales-not-confident-uk-government-will-deliver-on-levelling-up-promise-poll-finds
It seems that it may be possible to interpret the weakness of UK and the rise of the independence movements in terms of the energetic principle of maximum power.
“The maximum power principle can be stated: During self-organisation, system designs develop and prevail that maximise power intake, energy transformation, and those uses that reinforce production and efficiency.”
According to that theory, a system prevails in its self-organisation when it maximises its power intake and the maximisation of the transformation of energy for self-preservation through useful work (exergy).
We may add the corollary that systems that prevail thus maintain their organisation in its parts through maximum beneficial work. The system maintains itself only in so far as it adequately maintains its parts through useful work. The loss of vital organ will take out the organism.
It seems easy to apply that principle to UK, which simply fails to maintain itself by developing the regions (nations) in their maximum transformation of energy through work – economic development. Thus the UK system is set to fail in line with my corollary to the proposed fourth energetic principle.
For the parts are able to detach and to better organise themselves for maximum power utilisation.
The process of the selection of social organisational systems according to the maximum power principle is mediated politically, in the case of independence movements, through human consciousness and democracy.
The more knowledge that the demos has of the situation, and of other possible situations, the better informed it is to make a wise decision about its future. Thus information, wisdom and democracy act as social mechanisms for the selection of maximally exergetic organisational systems.
Ignorance and false promises by Westminster are intended to hinder maximally exergetic organisation.
Independence movements may be characterised as a ‘will to power’ on the part of regional (national) demoi to organise themselves according to the maximum power principle, according to which that system will prevail that maximises power intake and its transformation through useful work. Unionism may be understood as an attempt to hinder that selection and to nullify the maximum power principle.
Thus the regions are not superficial appendages to be neglected and run down, they are akin to vital organs without which the Union system will fail. An independent England will obviously emerge and do well upon the break up of UK but the UK organisational system itself is set to fail. Its failure may be best for everyone concerned.
UK is simply not the optimum dissipative system and as such will not prevail against other models. Independence is the democratic selection of social organisations according to the maximum power principle and the corollary of the need to maintain parts that can better go it alone.
Sounds most interesting.
Fresh polls:
A new Yougov poll is out today, and it suggests that most English could not care less whether Scotland leaves the UK, including half of TP voters.
In a new twist, the government’s own polling has been leaked, and it suggests that support for independence in Scotland has now reached 56%, the highest level ever. A series of polls this year has shown support gradually increase.
– YouGov poll: Less than half of English people think Scotland should stay in UK
LESS than half of English people think Scotland should remain part of the UK, new polling has revealed.
The YouGov research collated the views of adults in the UK about the Union breaking up.
It found just 46% of English people think Scotland should stay in the Union.
Only 13% expressly stated that the country should become independent from Westminster, with 34% giving no opinion, saying it’s for Scots to decide.
The poll also shows a fifth of Conservative and Unionist Party voters would be pleased to see Scotland become independent.
A further 29% of Conservatives say they wouldn’t be bothered if Scotland ditched the Union, meaning 49% would either be unphased or pleased in the event of Scottish independence.
– Scottish independence: Secret UK polling puts Yes support on 56 percent
THE latest polls have recorded 56% support for Scottish independence, the UK Cabinet has reportedly been told.
The secret figures would be the highest level of Yes support ever recorded.
Writing in today’s Guardian, Mujtaba Rahman, a professor of political risk who previously worked for the UK Treasury, said: “Ministers are increasingly nervous that a Scottish breakaway is on the cards (the Cabinet was recently briefed that the latest opinion polls show 56% of Scots would vote for independence, and 44% to stay in the UK).”
The figures, which may have been found by internal Government polling, have not been published.
When approached by The National, the Cabinet Office denied any knowledge of the poll.
However, Rahman, who is currently the managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group, a political risk research and consulting firm, assured The National his statement was correct, although he could not reveal his source.
The 56% for Yes figure represents a lead of 12% over No when the Don’t Knows are excluded, and would be only the latest in a long line of polls putting Yes in the majority.
The UK Cabinet’s secret polling would suggest that support for Scottish independence is still climbing towards the 60% senior SNP politicians have said would be the ideal starting point for a new referendum campaign.
A poll last month which found 55% support for independence sent “shockwaves throughout the political world”, according to Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp, the CEO of Business for Scotland.
Rahman’s assertion that UK ministers are growing “increasingly nervous” echoes the sentiment expressed by a senior Government source last month.
The unnamed minister told The Sunday Times that Michael Gove was in “panic mode about the Union”.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/18703315.scottish-independence-secret-uk-polling-puts-yes-support-56/
Of COURSE we English are cool about the Scots leaving and taking their little country with them. They’ve been moaning for long enough, so we’re used to it now, and we have our own much larger country of England to fall back on – and as Vera Lynn told us, there’ll always be one.
Then the people of Cornwall can start demanding independence from England, and the English nationalists will say, fine, why should we subsidise you anyway. Then Cornwall will leave, and maybe the Cornies will find that they don’t much like the Wallies and have a war, and maybe then that will inspire the Yorkies and the Lancastrians to have a re-run of the war of the roses. Et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, forever and ever. Amen.
Anyway, when is Herzegovina going to secede from Bosnia? And I’m sure the Govinians would be much better off without the Herzeans too.
This topic is nonsense. Dreamers and half wits. How many countries could be formed from distinct ethnic/cultural schisms in Scotland? At least four. To begin with.
Yes, any country can split and split again. But first you need to find the will, then the political power to do so. At some point, you will be stopped. I doubt Shetland will ever become independent, however much it might one day want to.
There is a precedent for a Scottish indyref, and now times have changed and Scotland is being bounced out of the EU against its will. Time for another referendum, they will argue.
Independence is normal for a country.
Countries can chose to enter into a Union and they can choose to leave it.
England chose to join the EU and then chose to leave it.
Countries do not have to enter into a Union or to remain in one, it is a free choice.
All that really matters is what they want to do, not what anyone else thinks.
It is no massive deal to Englanders, one way or the other, as the polls show.
It is all good.
Independence is normal for a country.
Define ‘country’. Is Cornwall a country? Is the Basque land a country?
As the nationalists say, ‘Why should I be a minority in your country when you can be a minority in mine?’
Anyway, the UK – not England alone – chose to join the EU, or EEC as it then was. Only Northern Ireland, if its votes are broken down separately, voted against.
Scotland is universally recognised as a long-established distinct country. It was a distinct kingdom from the early Middle Ages (843). It was distinct from England since Roman times (Hadrian’s wall).
It remained a distinct country despite the personal union of the crowns (1603) and the political union (1707). Scotland agreed to enter into a political union, not to cease to be a distinct country.
Neither UK constitutional law nor anyone doubts that Scotland is a distinct country. It is a legal reality regardless of any metaphysical hair splitting.
“As the nationalists say, ‘Why should I be a minority in your country when you can be a minority in mine?’”
Nations are said to be too big and complex to manage on available energy resources. If so, they’ll split apart one way or another. I wondered if it would work better to soften what it means to be a nation (perhaps the term is virtual nation?), where the critical daily support systems are local, but we still retain a national identity for whatever use it has for holding different local groups together.
“Countries can chose to enter into a Union and they can choose to leave it.”
Tell that to the Confederacy…
Well spotted. “Wayward sisters, depart in peace”: the five words that would have avoided the War Between the States, and the century or more of division and alienation that followed. But the North was hell bent on war, and Lincoln was determined the South would fire the first shot, which is why one of his first official acts was to issue the lying memorandum that promised to evacuate Fort Sumter. A promise, of course, that he had no intention of keeping.
Tim Watkins about “levelling-up”:
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2020/08/30/welcome-to-real-britain/
“Despite their stated pre-pandemic aim of “levelling-up” the UK economy, the post-pandemic economic environment may leave them with little choice but to watch the few remaining pockets of prosperity prior to 2020, level-down to the wastelands where most of the population has been living for decades.”
the future is “level-down”.
That is an interesting website, I spent a couple of hours reading the articles last night. Recommended. Thanks for that.
Thanks for the link! I always enjoy Tim Watkins’ posts. The UK seems to have a lot in common with the US, in terms of empty city center for small towns years ago and now empty city centers of major cities as office workers are found to be more productive at home.
“Singapore has long been a favoured destination for foreign expatriates… But as the pandemic-fuelled recession begins to bite and unemployment rates soar, the lure of the city-state is fading as recruiters face increasing barriers to hiring… foreign employees…”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/06/end-singapore-expats-government-tells-firms-hire-locals-coronavirus/
I suppose those not hired are the many foreigners living in crowded dorms, who are prone to catching COVID-19.
From April 2020: “Thousands of people in tightly packed dorms pose new challenge for Singapore’s virus fight”
Today: Singapore Faces Test as Virus Re-emerges in Workers’ Dorms
The “expats” are the high priced “foreign talent” who live in 11 room apartments (mentioning no names beginning R F). The underclass are imported workers from elsewhere in Asia who are irreplaceable, because native Singaporeans have been conditioned over two generations to believe themselves a privileged class and will not do what they do.
I’ve never liked that term “expat.” I’m not sure what it means. It seems to mean different things to different people. Take my colleague’s daughter, a Taiwanese woman who has been working in Singapore (in the hotel industry). Is she an “expat”? Can Asians be expats, or only white people? Does it depend on how much money she makes, or whether she goes there on her own initiative (as opposed to being sent by a company)?
For your edification and amusement, here’s a chart showing self-reported salaries, mostly of foreigners, in Taiwan. As you can see, they’re all over the place, with certain professions much higher than the others. (1 USD = about 30 NTD, which is the currency being reported here):
https://tw.forumosa.com/t/share-your-taiwan-salary-anonymously/195852/226
The “average” person makes 10kUSD/month?? When I saw 60k as a fair salary, I thought they were talking about per year.
That’s in NTD (New Taiwan Dollars). Divide by 30 to get the US dollar equivalent, which in this case would be about 2k USD a month.
(Got modded. Let’s try this again)
It’s denominated in Taiwan dollars. Divide by 30 for the US dollar equivalent.
Thanks!
I also hate the term “expat”; it is a relic of the UK colonial period when civil servants sent to “take up the white man’s burden” were so called. In my travels I have always tried to respect and follow the customs of the host country, no less in Singapore than here in Malta. By the way, my monthly salary in Singapore in my final year there was about EUR 13,500. I saved over half of it.
East asians not “white”?
You all look pretty white to me, for sure different but white. I’m not sure if that is a plus or a minus, never mind.
Regarding “brown” people.
https://www.enigma-mag.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Halle-Berry-Young.jpg
I guess I’m a quite flexible “white” supremacist. 🤣
“I can love both fair and brown,
Her whom abundance melts, and her whom want betrays,
Her who loves loneness best, and her who masks and plays,
Her whom the country formed, and whom the town, …”
John Donne, in case you didn’t know.
“Malaysia’s decision to lock expats out of the country has caused a lot of distress…”
https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/opinion/2020/09/08/is-malaysia-telling-foreigners-not-to-make-their-homes-here/
“Almost 300 people were arrested in Hong Kong as police fired rounds of pepper balls and swooped on protesters who gathered to show their opposition to the decision to postpone key elections that should have been held on Sunday.
“Hundreds of protesters had taken to the streets to demonstrate against the year-long delay to elections for the Legislative Council…”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/09/hong-kong-police-arrest-dozens-protests-delayed-election-200906091953109.html
Harry
on a different thread I wondered if you’d caught up om this
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-54028339
Norman, I hadn’t – thank you. There is a shortage of affordable housing here, for sure. I gather that companies constructing new homes on Islay must legally ensure a quota of them are affordable in an attempt to redress that balance.
So many of the houses are holiday-lets that a couple of the smaller towns feel quite eerily deserted in winter. I can’t imagine the staycationing trend will help with that.
I don’t have much insight into the use of Gaelic. The only place I seem to hear it spoken is the airport for some reason. Gaelic lessons are mandatory in schools until the children are around 14 but of course that is no guarantee of its survival. My eldest, who is 14, was happy to ditch it!
I remember a story about some Chinese guy who learned Gaelic, but not English, in the hopes that he could travel around Ireland. He had some communication problems, but never had to buy his own beer!
Apparently a lot of Irish live in Iceland. Presumably they’re dyslexic.
“China has rushed to build up its reserves of food and other strategic goods from foreign sources, aiming to ensure a steady supply in the face of a widening array of global risks.”
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Commodities/China-hoards-resources-as-trade-war-and-pandemic-threaten-access
“As tensions between the U.S. and China continue to roil, speculation that China will [further] reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasury bond re-emerges…
“China could make more drastic cuts if the U.S. moves to sanction China financially.”
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3611809-china-may-trim-u-s-treasury-holdings-tensions-simmer-u-s-debt-swells
“In August this year, the Chinese government announced an overhaul in its academic curriculum in the ‘autonomous’ region of Inner Mongolia. The region, annexed by China after the Second World War, is home to 4.2 million ethnic Mongolians.
“Under the new rules, classes in Mongolian in the region will be stopped and subjects such as literature, politics, and history will be taught in Mandarin.”
https://www.opindia.com/2020/09/inner-mongolia-protest-chinese-imposition-mandarian-mongolian-school/
I visited Inner Mongolia in 2015 with a graduate student from there. He said it was a real challenge learning Mandarin well enough to study at the university at Beijing. Quite of a bit of the lettering on buildings is in characters (different from Chinese characters) that are arranged vertically. I would imagine it would be a challenge teaching in two fairly different languages, at any age.
I have also talked to people from India who have complained about the huge differences in languages in India, including different alphabets, which make learning multiple languages difficult. It is difficult to fit the multiple different subjects into the academic day. It is hard to find teachers who are fluent in multiple languages.
That’s a vertical alphabet, not a character-based writing system like Chinese. It was actually inspired by Aramaic by way of (old) Uyghur, but written vertically to match what was then the custom with Chinese. Manchu looks almost the same. (If you have any Chinese paper money, both these languages are on it, along with Tibetan and modern Uyghur.
In the Republic of Mongolia, they recently voted to switch from Cyrillic (like Russian) to this old Mongolian script. Before both were used, with Cyrillic probably being more popular.
Those who do not remember history are compelled to repeat it. That policy is precisely the one introduced by the government of Czechoslovakia in the 1920s in respect of their German minority: first, prohibit the use of German in schools; secondly, prohibit its use in public places; thirdly, ban it in the home. Number three never happened, because Hitler intervened.
Don’t forget to fire on the crowd protesting against the above and kill a couple of dozen. It’s often difficult to find the original sin in historical processes.
Some of the items mentioned as being added to reserves were oil, cobalt, potassium, wheat and rice. Buying while prices are low is probably a good strategy; it helps keep the prices from falling any lower.
https://www.weforum.org/press/2019/06/world-economic-forum-and-un-sign-strategic-partnership-framework/
World Economic Forum and UN Sign Strategic Partnership Framework
It would seem like magically making energy should be on their list as well!
All the Empire citizens reap (at least some of) the fruits of the imperial power action (massacres, pillages, etc). We could not like (and what’s to like in that “heart of darkness”? But even the citizens that profess to abhorr imperialism are its accomplices, since they couldn’t live without imperial panem, so their point is moot. Yes, we are all fruits of the mighty Imperial Anglo-American Tree, we are imperialists (as we are also bourgeois).
Racist, I personally don’t see it so clear. I suspect the white man can particularly good at certain tasks and processings, that the black man can be extremely good in others, and the asians in another ones, and the yanomami idem, and the bushmen, etc. There’s no The better here i think, only different survial strategies.
Sorry, misplaced it. It was a reply to Tim Groves above.
JMS, I can see your points and I think some of what you say is reasonable
Empires can bring many benefits to the people they subject to their rule, making the conquered vastly better off (although this is a horrible value judgement) than if they had been left to their own devices while giving them the added psychological benefit of having somebody else to blame for their troubles. It doesn’t always happen, but their are plenty of examples where it did.
One example: The British thank the Romans now for all the benefits of civilization the later bestowed on their northern province. But at the time, a lot of the natives must have been quite irate at having been colonized and forced to take regular baths.
The Philippines suffered greatly under the Spanish and later the American conquests, and yet I have Filipino acquaintances that tell me they thank the Americans for all the good things they gave to their country and they thank the Spanish even more for their even greater gifts, including the Spanish language and the Roman Catholic Church. Appreciation is still a virtue in the Philippines.
However, talking about the white man and the black man in general terms is, I think, the height of racism, not to mention sexism. Unless you are a black man, of course. Then you would get a free pass on the basis of natural justice, reparations, or something. 🙂
That notorious tome The Bell Curve has been mentioned in the comments recently. It was extremely controversial in its time and roundly condemned by academics and journalists, particularly on the left. Some denied its findings and others thought that even if they were valid, it would be far better that they were left unstated.
My own view is that race is a social construct, just as society is. There are only individuals and their innate abilities and their social and cultural training. Even if the bell curve for one race doesn’t quite match that of another race, it doesn’t matter much because almost everyone is close to the apex of the curve—stuck in the mediocre middle. Very few of us are outliers, so what does it matter?
So I agree along with MLK that people, if they are going to be judged at all, should be judged on their individual merits and the content of their characters. Otherwise race get used on the one hand as an excuse for prejudice and discrimination and on the other as a justification for failure and lack of achievement.
Anyway, it’s all so horrible I can hardly bare to look. I used to know a Chilean woman in the UK back in the 1970s who told me that the place was wonderful in the 1940s and 50s when she was young but had become such a terrible mess since. I’ve met black people from Tanzania, Zimbabwe and Nigeria who’ve told me that ordinary people in their countries were better off under colonialism. Probably all these people were just nostalgic for their lost youth. How could things have been better in the past? Surely we live in the best of all possible worlds?
I did not express myself clearly. As an individualist, I too can only see each person as individuals. I don’t evaluate people on the basis of pigmentation.
I believe the difference between a bushman and a texan is mostly cultural, And if i ‘m sure i wouldn’t last 48 hours in the Kalahri desert, that’s not because of my skin colour or genetics, but because I haven’t acquired the necessary skills to survive in such environment.
However i don’t know if “There are only individuals and their innate abilities and their social and cultural training.” If that’s so, how can we you explain, for example, that in the list of the 50 best sprinters (or long distance runners) ever there are almost no caucasian athletes?
When I spoke of the benefits reaped by the subjects of the empire, I was referring mainly to their citizens, including the ex-barbarians culturally assimilated, and not so much abour the enslaved or colonised people. Pax Romana was ultimately beneficial to the Gaul or Iberian people, just as pax americana has been beneficial to Europeans since 1945. Of course the capital of the empire reaps most gains, but some of these trickle down for citizens on the empire periphery too.
Decolonization has brought many African countries a succession of civil wars, invariably fuelled by ideological or tribal differences. So it is no wonder that an Angolan in the 1990s, for example, missed the peacetime of colonial rule. He might have been equally poor in 1960, but at least he weren’t at great risk of stepping on a mine or getting shot.
in fundamemtal terms, we europeans went into africa over the last 300 years, messed it up and are now left wondering why africans are coming into europe and messing us up
In even fundamental terms, it was we Europeans surrounded by a world of slavers and slaves, pagans, barbarians, savages, and cannibals. So we asked ourselves, “do they know it’s Christmas time at all?”
Especially Africa, the Dark Continent. It was all hopelessly messed up before we Europeans ever sailed past Morocco.
https://blurb-pdf-processing-service-prod-preflight.s3.amazonaws.com/default/blurb/P14465339/preview_72dpi/cover-trim-no-fold-front_cover-44488f0e-36cb-4f63-ab11-48f4fe169c29.jpg
It was all messed up yet, right, but you sure agree we introduced a new scale of “messedupiness”. All of a sudden in the XVI centry the portuguese started buying slaves from african sobas or merchants and exporting them by the thousands every year to the plantations of the New World. So along 300 years the lifes of some 10 million Africans were messed up in a scale that could never be possible under the rule of their indigenous rulers.
But should we consider guilty for all those cruelties perpetrated by our ancestors? Of course not. To judge the past is such a silly and futile exercise that it should be made illegal,or at least be always condemned by every person of good will!
but it was their own mess–not ours
No systematic racism in Liberia.
However i don’t know if “There are only individuals and their innate abilities and their social and cultural training.” If that’s so, how can we you explain, for example, that in the list of the 50 best sprinters (or long distance runners) ever there are almost no caucasian athletes?
Thats’s a difficult question, but a fair one.
My explanation would be that the record books show unequivocally that most of the fastest sprinters and (to a lesser extent) long distance runners over the past century have been black, and that on the average blacks are probably physiologically more able to compete well at these sports than whites or yellows are. However, these best sprinters and long distance runners other lists are populated by outliers. You would concede, I expect, that over 90% of people, including black people are not Olympic level sprinters.
The athletics business is engaged in identifying outliers and training them to become star athletes. This is because most of the time it isn’t worth the effort to train the 90+% of humanity who are not outliers two compete against those whose natural gifts give them a head start.
Moreover, the categorization of races is a bit iffy. Sub-Saharan black people contain more genetic diversity than the rest of humanity combined. They also live in a wide diversity of environments that have shaped their genomes. For instance, very few pigmies excel at either sprinting or long distance running.
It should come as no more of a surprise that people who live at high elevations can perform well at low-elevation long-distance running regardless of their skin color, than that people who are 2 meters tall are better at basketball than those who are 1.5 meters tall.
You’re certainly righ. Tim. Anyway, i see the racial path of “inquiring” as a cemented bore, that can never leads a mind to any significant place. I prefer to drop it. Cheers!
You may not be interested in race, but race is interested in you.
Race is interested in me? Don’t see how nor why. Didn’t you mean “Grace”? But Grace who? I don’t know any Grace.
Charles Darwin is to be cancelled as a racist and an imperialist.
It is ironic that the ‘left’ pushes for this sort of thing when historically they had more awareness of the relativity of ideology and morality to the historically developing economic base, and the ‘right’ maintained a ‘bourgeois’ approach to ideology and morality as ‘eternal, natural, unchanging’.
And it is especially ironic that Darwin, who is practically the father of evolution, would now fall foul to a radically unevolutionary understanding of social and ideological development.
All the signs are that material conditions have improved in 21c, and living standards and social morality have developed with them – but the scientific understanding of social and ideological development has completely gone out of the window.
Of course Darwin was an imperialist and a racist, that was the dominant capitalist state ideology of the day that reflected the imperialist and colonialist economic base. It would have been odd had he not been. They all were.
But it now suits the same establishment, in the post-imperialist period, to condemn persons from the past for their now archaic ideology – it reinforces the ‘anti-racist’ ideology of the present and thus advances the current material interests of the economic state for an inflow of ever more workers, which is what it is really all about.
> Cancelling the father of evolution: Natural History museum will review ‘offensive’ Charles Darwin exhibitions because HMS Beagle’s Galapagos voyage was ‘colonialist’
Collections under review include specimens of exotic birds gathered by naturalist Charles Darwin on his expedition to the Galapagos Island with Captain Robert FitzRoy on HMS Beagle in 1835.
According to the academic paper shared with museum staff, the HMS Beagle was cited as one of Britain’s many ‘colonialist scientific expeditions’.
It wrote that one of the purposes of the voyage was ‘to enable greater British control of those areas’.
The paper also argues that ‘museums were put in place to legitimise a racist ideology’.
A statue of Charles Darwin that sits in the museum’s main hall could also come under questioning as well as a statue of scientist Thomas Henry Huxley because of his theories of five ‘races’ of human.
According to The Sunday Telegraph, Michael Dixon, the director of the Natural History Museum, explained to staff: ‘The Black Lives Matter movement has demonstrated that we need to do more and act faster, so as a first step we have commenced an institution-wide review on naming and recognition.
‘We want to learn and educate ourselves, recognising that greater understanding and awareness on diversity and inclusion are essential.’
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8702867/Natural-History-museum-review-Charles-Darwin-exhibitions-HMS-Beagle-colonialist.html
I wonder how all this statue cancelling is supposed to change anything? All it does is fooling the “suppressed people” to believe that change is coming. I think it is counter productive to their cause.
What will be next, tearing down NASA museums because they didn’t put a black man on the moon?
Careful–the claim that the m**n landings actually happened is controversial around here. (Some YouTube personalities even deny that that celestial body exists at all.)
‘The Black Lives Matter movement has demonstrated that we need to do more and act faster …’
No: The Black Lives Matter movement has demonstrated that you should defend your history and culture in the first trench, lest you end up defending it in the last. Charles Darwin was a great and noble man; the voyage of the Beagle was a turning point in the history of science, and that England sponsored it is a source of national pride. It is way past time we defended our own, and “cancelled” those who would betray us, including Michael Dixon, who is clearly hoping the crocodile will eat him last.
Thank you Robert.
Well put.
Dennis L.
I’ve come to the conclusion that ‘black’ people living in ‘white’ countries is a case of ‘cultural appropriation’. Something should be done about it.
Look at that nice Belgian man, Mr Sax, who invented the saxophone. Black people culturally appropriated it, and see what happened. They thought ‘sax’ was spelt with an ‘e’ and emphasised the instrument’s phallic side. There must be hundreds of thousands of potential white saxophonists who got put out of a job as a result. 🙁
The antiapartheid movement in South Africa used to use a tactic called “necklacing” to deal with black people who were seen to be collaborating with the wife regime.
If white people in traditionally white countries were ever to get serious about defending their cultures, they would eventually need to take violent action against their own collaborators. This would be bloody and nasty and savage and lamentable, and many white people would prefer their own cultural extinction to indulging in such rough stuff. So it’s a big “If”. But as the provocations continue and increase, the pressure is building for some kind of violent and clandestine oppositional movement to form and grow.
This is all a great shame, because the vast majority of all people of all races, creeds and colors can get on with each other if they aren’t “programmed” to fear and loathe the other, curtesy of the****ing intelligence-directed activist movements and the ****king mass media. But the fact is, at least in the West, we are not going to be allowed to get on with each other.
Perhaps general racial unrest has already been planned by the controllers as the next stage in their strategy of tension. First everybody living with low- to medium- to high-level anxiety. Then everybody living in fear. And finally everybody living in Outright Terror….. Blood and Brilliant!
https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/513c543ce4b0abff73bc0a82/1364203403672-YNB9CVVCEQZSJUHUYWEH/ke17ZwdGBToddI8pDm48kOOaloqBQrwkfZon1UlXG5JZw-zPPgdn4jUwVcJE1ZvWQUxwkmyExglNqGp0IvTJZamWLI2zvYWH8K3-s_4yszcp2ryTI0HqTOaaUohrI8PITbl6tQzjimJVuQmx6RHqMB01Lq8789WuFiAVunRBNd4KMshLAGzx4R3EDFOm1kBS/outright+terror.jpg
Why are my brilliant posts being sabotaged by spelling errors? I can only surmise that THEY are out to make me look illiterate..
Errata:
• collaborating with the WHITE regime.
• BOLD and Brilliant
I have the same issue, even my proof reading is subject to these issues. THEY are definitely the issue.
Dennis L.
I think there are Bible colleges where you can major in spelling.
Those who thrive in institutional environments like museums are not generally known for having any backbone, so we should not be surprised at his craven capitulation to this destructive and anti-intellectual movement.
At the Tate Gallery, there are now little race-aware captions by certain paintings, pointing out the awful ‘patriarchal racist colonialist’, etc, attitudes of the painters; but I observed that, for some reason, an amusing 18th -century country tavern scene in which black servants are getting merrily drunk along with everyone else had no caption praising the clear equality and good-nature being shown.
But how long before offending artworks are not merely captioned but taken away and even destroyed? Frankly, nearly everything would be liable to condemnation based on gender, race and class-war criteria.
The iconoclasts are clasting everything that offends them these days, along the lines of the Taliban and the stone Buddhas. A most potent power, is the power to veto. It’s all the more important when it’s the only power malcontents have to bring to the table. I think it is a psychotic reaction against that which they cannot and could never create.
What will remain? Nothing, if the revolution is to be permanent, as promised. The menu is scorched-earth and resentment, day after God-forsaken day. Imagine the mind that embraces such a thing.
Whether the State can loose and bind
In Heaven as well as on Earth:
If it be wiser to kill mankind
Before or after the birth–
These are matters of high concern
Where State-kept schoolmen are;
But Holy State (we have lived to learn)
Endeth in Holy War.
Whether The People be led by The Lord,
Or lured by the loudest throat:
If it be quicker to die by the sword
Or cheaper to die by vote–
These are things we have dealt with once,
(And they will not rise from their grave)
For Holy People, however it runs,
Endeth in wholly Slave.
Whatsoever, for any cause,
Seeketh to take or give
Power above or beyond the Laws,
Suffer it not to live!
Holy State or Holy King–
Or Holy People’s Will–
Have no truck with the senseless thing.
Order the guns and kill!
Saying –after–me:–
Once there was The People–Terror gave it birth;
Once there was The People and it made a Hell of Earth
Earth arose and crushed it. Listen, O ye slain!
Once there was The People–it shall never be again!
(Rudyard Kipling, of course; one of our most prescient authors)
Quite so: they love the idea of perpetual Revolution, ignoring the unquestionable fact -do they know any history? – that it would certainly consume them, too, eventually.
A waking nightmare, and it is alarming to see that career politicians in the US are irresponsibly, and very cynically, endorsing this: Kamala Harris promising more of it even if Trump is not elected, etc.
I cannot see how any sane person desiring the long-term welfare of their country and Constitution could now vote for the Democrats given their open complicity in civil disorder, destruction of property and ideological persecution. It will not get switched off if the Dems win, that is the promise.
Of course, this happens elsewhere; in Spain, Basque Left nationalists turn a blind eye to arson (trucks and coaches, rubbish bins) and the persecution of other political parties -attacking their local offices for instance – as it is the ‘legitimate voice of marginalised youth.’ In other words, their voter base……
The Basques at least have a comprehensible separatist goal. BLM is more: 1.) we wreck stuff 2.) ??? 3.) Profit! They’ve amassed $1.5 billion, so it seems to be working. If BLM were asking for a separate nation for themselves, I wouldn’t be able to get my checkbook out fast enough.
Unfortunately, they seem not so much interested in taking over our real estate (that has material overhead costs) as they are in taking over our minds.
A couple of years ago the Manchester Art Gallery took down John William Waterhouse’s painting “Hylas and the Nymphs”. The vandal responsible justified her action in (where else) the Guardian. Her reasons? First, it celebrated the male objectification of women. Because she didn’t know that Hylas was the lover of Herakles and not very interested in women. She also didn’t know it was the nymphs objectifying Hylas, before they dragged him to his death in the water. She also tried to claim the naked nymphs were “child pornography”, when Waterhouse’s own biography tells us that all the nymphs were posed by his regular model, who was 18 at the time. It seems one of the “qualifications” for managing a major art gallery is that you be not only ignorant, but pig ignorant.
It’s about power.
When Enlightenment rationality could be used against monarchies and the church, it was convenient. Now scientific rationality no longer behooves (Biden: “We choose truth over facts”), so we are being inculcated into the new religion of “equity” fetishes and credentialism cargo cults (clearly the white man’s magic piece of paper is what allows successful air flight, bridge-building, and brain surgery to happen).
Rationality no longer serves humanity’s larger aims in another sense: with the end of FF energy flows in sight, there is a diminishing point to, and capacity for, the practice of modern science as we know it. Science will become a kind of boutique luxury again, if it is practiced at all; our ability to “see” in the “Powers of Ten” directions will be curtailed if not completely destroyed.
Wonderful Biden quote, I must look up the context! Truth over facts, my my…..
The trajectory he has spent 47 years helping to construct….
Wonder where Biden stole that line from?
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/07/23/joe_bidens_plagiarism_problem_143788.html
Last week, Democrat nominee for president Joe Biden delivered an economic speech under the slogan “Build Back Better.” Despite the radical proposals contained within the speech, that’s some clever branding.
However, Joe Biden didn’t come up with the slogan, the United Nations did. That’s right—Joe Biden and his campaign plagiarized the title directly from a United Nations climate change initiative launched in April. In fact, Biden’s released economic plan seemed eerily similar to President Donald Trump’s “America First” message.
Following these latest incidents, one can’t help but flash back to Biden’s well-documented history of plagiarism, which dates to his first presidential campaign in the summer of 1987, a bid that ended ignominiously amid repeated examples of plagiarism and outright fabrication.
The Powers that pull strings must has a reason….
Sort of strange, I will agree.
Yup we have dumb and dumber competing for the race…..thanks for keeping politics in the forefront Lydia….its not like we are trying to figure out complicated economic scenarios for society. I do have access to Fox news and CNN so I don’t think you really need to be posting all this junk…unless you are trying to push a political agenda and tell us that Trump is the better choice… Are you? Really we are not that Dumb as to know what your agenda is…Comrade!
This is an example of where we are headed (4 min.):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9SiRNibD14
Normal students vs. “fallists” (#ScienceMustFall)
https://reason.com/2016/10/14/watch-leftist-students-say-science-is-ra/
I am sure that someone can develop a “scientific model” explaining how witchcraft can allow someone to cast a spell so that lightning will strike someone.
Ya know, that kind of expertise would be worth $40k in tuition!
What a load of rubbish.
I note that the standing “fallists” is wearing a pair of spectacles. I vehemently protest this blatant cultural appropriation.
that’s a good catch there.
and more than cultural, those eyeglasses are actually the end result of much science, and I’m fairly certain that science arose in Asia or Europe, not Africa.
Actually, the basic science did indeed arise in Africa: Hellenistic Africa, in the form of Heron of Alexandria’s “Catoptria”. We tent to forget that Africa north of the Sahara was once part of the Ecumene, the civilised world.
https://www.pulse.ng/gist/moving-up-sa-minister-to-introduce-bsc-in-witchcraft-into-education-system/3e7mwp3
Nzimande made this known while speaking to representatives from student unions around the country, announcing the move and urging future university applicants to consider taking Witchcraft as a course of study.
“There is a lot like how they fly in that winnowing basket. Imagine if we learn that skill; it will eradicate traffic jams and everyone will just get in their basket and fly. It also means we will not be importing fuel anymore.”
I’m pretty certain that humans can only fly in their ‘subtle bodies.’ I may be wrong, of course, and perhaps Tibetan lamas have mastered the art – ‘ascended masters’. As for the ‘ET’ humanoids – well, for some it is said to be an innate ability to appear or disappear in or from our dimension. The late John Keel and also Jacques Vallee (still living) were adamant, to their own astonishment, that this was the case. Perhaps J M Greer might have something to say about that.
Did you know you can earn academic credit for “yogic flying” at the Maharishi University of Management? The close-minded allege that they are just hopping on their butts, but when you think about it, they have to be levitating for at least a second.
In an episode of Mythbusters Jr called “Gravity Busters”, Adam Savage and a few of his teenagers got a car to levitate. And it didn’t even have to meditate!
Video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M672sEfGZhg
People probably have a better chance of finding a job if they say that they can practice witchcraft than if the say that they understand art history or if the say they have a degree in a whole lot of other things that are popular today.
I’d like to meet the job-seeker who dares to talk about practicing witchcraft at an interview. I’m aware of a philosophy Ph.D. who wore a Dracula cape to interviews at conferences. (Not sure if he got any offers.)
Perhaps in some parts of Africa, Witchcraft would be acceptable.
If someone could package Witchcraft with some scientific sounding models and theories, it might even be acceptable at universities outside of Africa. The potential employers would be other “enlightened” universities, wanting to set up witchcraft programs for their students. Perhaps also by cities wanting to find a way to use the money that comes from defunding police departments in a way that suits the de-funders. Use witchcraft to fix up problems of inner cities.
Actually, in much of Africa, people identified as “witches” are killed or exiled.
It’s a kind of social hysteria, these are not people who consider themselves to be witches. For example, if your cow dies, the local sangoma (“witch doctor”) might blame it on witchcraft from your neighbor, so you lead a mob to chase her out of town and then take her farm for yourself. Yes, occasionally some Peace Corps Volunteer who practices Wicca has to figure out what to say to people!
This may have an under-valued social cleansing factor. I wonder to what degree the accusations are random.
I’ll tell a non-PC story: I have a friend from way back who is unlucky enough to have a genetic issue with brain tumors. Objectively speaking, her looks might be a just a touch off of “normal”, but nothing that ever impressed itself on me one way or the other. Traveling with her in very rural Italy, we entered a tavern. Some local men, upon seeing her, immediately moved to scratch their balls. She didn’t notice this, and if she had, she would not have known what it meant. Touching one’s genitals is a form of “scaramanzia”, a warding-off of evil. The way this chick looked freaked those dudes out.
My friend had her tubes tied, since her malady is genetically-transmitted. I don’t wonder that people may be able to subliminally sense who is “whole” and who is “damaged”.
Accusations of witchcraft could also weed out other social undesirables (the woman who is too crabby or stingy, the mentally ill). It does seem to have focused on women, but men were also accused in Salem. Excess men die off in fighting; excess women..?
Many times, animals abandon young who appear to humans as though they should survive. The big-brained human may try to nurse along rejected babies with a limited rate of success. How does an animal immediately know that something is “not right” with its offspring, and that the baby doesn’t merit further investments of energy?
That is something for the “remote sensers” to figure out.
Why bother? Just magic yourself up a job. Better still, magic some money to appear in your pocket. Sorted.
Good point!
In fact, this website has been self-organizing out of almost nothing since March 2007. Actually, I had gotten interested in the subject of resource limits, and whether the assumptions actuaries were making about continuous growth made sense, back when I worked as an actuarial consultant. In early 2007, some organization offered a free seminar at the university where my husband teaches one Saturday. One of the optional courses was a one-hour session called something like, “How to Set Up Your Own WordPress Blog.” A woman walked a group of perhaps thirty of us through the details of getting our own websites set up. My daughter suggested I create a Quiz as my first post, to get people interested. People were interested in the possibility of oil shortages at that time. I entered a couple of my posts into a contest regarding the subject, and they ranked very highly in the ratings. I found quite a few readers that way. I also found the group website “TheOilDrum.com,” and posted links to my articles there. Editors at TOD wrote back, inviting me to write for them. The versions of HTML used on OFW and TOD were different, so it became impractical to write on both sites. I wrote at TOD for a while, and then came back to OFW.
Anyhow, things have gone on for a very long time, with commenters helping me along a lot in finding new ways of understanding the issues we are facing.
I suppose I could magic myself up some money by selling advertising on my site.
How about getting back to the Basics! A lot of people on here believe that the united states had so much oil that all they had to do was put a straw in the ground! Not only do they believe that they believe that the u.s was doing so well economically that the dark side had to do something about it. So they conjured up a spell and viola!
I get so little out of this site these days. I come here to learn what is going on economically in the energy sector but then discussions get bombarded with people pushing Trump or Biden agendas. They are both wrong…I know we all have are biases but Come on Gail you love to bash the lefties but you hold back when it comes to the righties propaganda. Unless …..
I got so little out of that reply.
what do you think about the future of FF production in the USA?
do you think that the D side is all in on a Green agenda, and a Biden victory would give that agenda a huge push?
as you know with the recent CA situation, that state is having major electricity problems because of an over reliance on Green energy.
do you think a Biden victory will give the whole USA an electricity problem a la CA?
or do you think there is little to no difference in the energy ideas of the left and the right?
do you think that most OFW readers are biased against the left because of their Green agenda?
King Midas did exactly that: at his foolish request, the gods gave him the gift that everything he touched would turn to gold. He starved to death, because he could not eat golden food. May it happen to Jeff Bezos, and soon.
We had a “jujuman” put a protection spell on our bungalow in Africa. It was a lot cheaper than a burglar alarm, and didn’t turn off when the electric power cut out. However, it didn’t work on black mambas, which would turn up at sunset to snooze on the warm stones of the verandah. For them, you needed a steward who knew how to throw a machete.
“Flying Witch”, a gentle anime series about a witch learning to fly. On a broomstick, of course, not in a basket. Watchable for several reasons, but for me because, although Japanese, it is grounded in Western witchcraft. For instance, our trainee witch learns a spell that summons a murder of crows; very traditional. It also has a lovely quiet music track, again based on Western traditions.
“Kiki’s Delivery Service”, the famous Ghibli movie. Again, very gentle and emotionally involving. Witches and airships, great combination.
Of course Darwin was an imperialist and a racist
Aren’t we all, deep down?
The World Bank started tracking COVID-19 test kit trade already in 2017.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhPI_bgUMAU2-4b?format=png&name=large
Very strange! Perhaps is is a miscode.
Pentagon has studied the UFO phenomenon since 1947:
Project Sign
Project Grunge
Project Blue Book
AATIP
UAP Task Force
The opposition against studying the phenomenon comes from a Christian group in the DoD called The Collins Elite.
They think that ET’s are demons and they technology is demonic. They regard the phenomenon as evil in nature and a sign of the End Times.
We live in very strange but interesting times.
‘They regard the phenomenon as evil in nature and a sign of the End Times.’
These phenomena have been noted for millennia, so the End Times are taking an awful long time to play out, if so. The simple fact is that we are not at the top of the food chain and never were. The authorities have just never wanted to admit it, even though probably at least 40% of the public are on board with the concept now. Are we due a Copernican moment soon? Let’s hope so. People like Norman are the equivalent of the flat earthers in this respect.
I look at this more like the military’s former interest in remote sensing (as shown in “The Men Who Stare at Goats”). Sure, it’s a waste of money, but that’s hardly unusual for the military.
Remote viewing? I wouldn’t knock it. Your ESP is evidently not well developed. I’ve experienced examples of clairvoyance – an image coming into my mind of what was going on elsewhere, later vindicated. Never heard of the holographic universe? Everything is connected to everything else. Trouble is, until you experience it, you wouldn’t believe it. Maybe if I could film my thoughts and mental images – or catch my experience in a jam jar and show it to you. But like Norman, you evidently have underdeveloped ESP.
One could make the argument that those experiences are the result of food poisoning or drug use.
Bollocks. Didn’t you see the word ‘vindicated’ ? I don’t do drugs, anyway.
I have just drawn a simple picture, and set it face-up on my desk. I invite any psychics who may be reading this, to tell me what I’ve drawn.
A man staring at a goat?
depends on which of you has cloven hooves
@ Yoshua,
It is astonishing the ignorance of the Bible and its teaching. Take for example Deicide and what never gets mentioned are the words of Christ when he glued the high priests ear back onto his head after it was cut off:
“Put your sword back in its place,” Jesus said to him, “for all who draw the sword will die by the sword. 53 Do you think I cannot call on my Father, and he will at once put at my disposal more than twelve legions of angels? Matt. 26:53
If Jesus so desired He could have ended the entire Roman Empire with a single sentence. What was standing in the Garden of Gethsemane was not just a man but a terrifyingly dangerous individual who no doubt was thinking about the history of Elisha:
“Don’t be afraid,” the prophet answered. “Those who are with us are more than those who are with them.”
17 And Elisha prayed, “Open his eyes, Lord, so that he may see.” Then the Lord opened the servant’s eyes, and he looked and saw the hills full of horses and chariots of fire all around Elisha.
18 As the enemy came down toward him, Elisha prayed to the Lord, “Strike this army with blindness.” So he struck them with blindness, as Elisha had asked. 2 Kings 6:17
The Roman Empire if not humanity in general could have ceased to exist on that day in the Garden of Gethsemane!!!!!!!!
Don’t think for one minute that all the UFO’s are demons and such. Life is full of life and frightening life as was attested by those who encountered the angel of God at the empty tomb.
Live in fear for what you do not understand and never seek to communicate with any of these. A hellish existence awaits those who do.
Live in fear for what you do not understand and never seek to communicate with any of these. A hellish existence awaits those who do.
I would expect this same advice to hold good for meeting with representatives of the Police, the IRS, BLM, SJWs, religious cult members, and door-to-door “home improvement” vendors to name but a few.
“It is astonishing the ignorance of the Bible and its teaching.”
yes, so many are unaware that it is the fictional invention of unscientific superstitious ancient men, as are most all religions and their gods.
“Live in fear for what you do not understand and never seek to communicate with any of these. A hellish existence awaits those who do.”
are you aware of the Many Gods problem?
if God exists, the reality could be a multitude of different possibilities, besides the one which claims that the “real” God is the one invented by those unscientific superstitious ancient men.
anything is possible for the unknown God:
the real God might not have any positive regards for the hundreds of billions of unspecial humans who have lived and will live.
God could love irony, and give atheists an afterlife and not anyone else.
or this:
a just God might send to Helll only those persons who believe in Helll.
imagine that: a “hellish existence” could await every person who believes in Helll.
could it be a big eternal risk to believe in the God who sends people to Helll?
well, free will allows us to “believe” what we want.
@davidinamonthorayearoradecade
The bible isn’t only literal. There are portions of the story that are meant to be literal like the story of David and Goliath.
But Genesis 1 is a very highly symbolic book. If you see the Bible as symbolic alongside literal it would make much more sense.
Even the stupid diet laws are meant for maintaining ritual purity to make themselves fit for worship.
The bible has a lot of stories passed on by parents to their children. They weren’t necessarily true, even when they sound like they might be true. They needed to be entertaining; a little exaggeration was fine.
Some of what was included was helpful tips on “what works for this particular time.” Having lots of children seemed to be part of this. Not eating too much meat was another; dietary restrictions would have the effect of holding down the meat consumption, even of the well to do.
The stories are more helpful for understanding the thinking of the time than they are for understanding what exactly happened.
As an aside about dietary prescriptions, Always found a bit intriguing that of the great world religions Christianity is the only one that does not seem to attach great importance to dietary prescriptions. Muslims avoid pork meat and alcohol, hindus do not eat cows and are mainly vegetarians, but Christians eat (or drink) everything and its mother (except on Lent). An effect of Christianism being the religion of the empire par excellence? IOW an indirect result and benefit of surplus energy made available by imperial rule?
AFAIK budhism have also no strong “dont’s” about diet, but vegetarianism is certainly encouraged.
It was not the high priests’s ear; it was the ear of Malchus, servant of the High Priest. (Matt xxvi:51) And eight exclamation marks do not make your nonsense any more convincing, especially since your knowledge of the bible seems seriously lacking.
@ Robert Firth
What is going on in Utah?
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/weather/45-semitrucks-topple-in-1-day-due-to-extreme-winds/vi-BB18RCFm?ocid=msedgntp
and does it have anything to do with:
Therefore this is what the Sovereign Lord says: In my wrath I will unleash a VIOLENT WIND, and in my anger hailstones and torrents of rain will fall with destructive fury. (Ezekiel 13:11–13)
Jesus didn’t need 12 legions of angels to end the Roman Empire He has the weather as His weapons WELL!!!
And guess what the bible if one didn’t know has the solution to climate change!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I am not aware that the bible has an answer to climate change. But the wind in Utah is interesting.
Gail also has stated wars usually are over scarce. desirable, economy resources and this case is brewing in the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Cyprus. Video gives a full explanation at the stakes.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kCpL9JATq9I
Seems most of the nations are too weak to save a military conflict on their own…
Perhaps a Superpower will provide one side with assistance?
France is.
Yes, of course, This is a hornets nest of potential powderkeg of conflict from what I have read. Two many hands grabbing at the piece of pie with geopolitical arrangements overlapping that will lead to perhaps a military intervention. Interesting lead up to where the situation is now.
Desperate times mean extreme measures to secure the needed resources to maintain BAU..
I’ll follow this story and see if Israel becomes more deeply involved
This just posted
Turkey begins military exercises in Northern Cyprus
France, meanwhile, says sanctions against Ankara are on the table during European Council meeting later this month.
As tensions run high, the Turkish military began exercises called ‘Mediterranean Storm’ with the Turkish Cypriot Security Command [F
As tensions run high, the Turkish military began exercises called ‘Mediterranean Storm’ with the Turkish Cypriot Security Command
Turkey begins military exercises in Northern Cyprus
Turkey’s armed forces on Sunday began annual exercises in the breakaway republic of Northern Cyprus – an entity recognised only by Ankara – as tensions continue to rise with Greece in the eastern Mediterranean.
Turkey’s hunt for gas and oil reserves in waters claimed by Greece has put a huge strain on the relationship between the two NATO members.
INSIDE STORY: Will Greece and Turkey fight over energy? (24:31)
As tensions run high, the Turkish military began its exercises called “Mediterranean Storm” with the Turkish Cypriot Security Command, Vice President Fuat Oktay said on Twitter.
“The security priorities of our country and the TRNC [Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus] are indispensable, along with diplomatic solutions in the eastern Mediterranean,” Oktay said.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/09/turkey-begins-military-exercises-northern-cyprus-200906155131714.html
And while Berlin is left trying to reach a balance in the Greece-Turkey confrontation, Washington, traditionally the guarantor of peace between the Aegean NATO rivals, has been almost totally silent. There is a sense that all parties want to take advantage of this, onshore and offshore, before the US elections. It is oddly this vacuum, rather than fossil fuels, that is fanning regional rivalries. With the US withdrawn, Moscow continuing its opaque brinkmanship and the EU split over Turkey, the scene is unfortunately set for more instability to come.
https://theconversation.com/turkey-greece-conflict-in-eastern-mediterranean-is-less-about-gas-than-vaccuum-left-by-trump-144691
I can see why many countries would like access to the oil and natural gas resources found at the eastern end of the Mediterranean. With low gas and oil prices, it seems like the desirability of these resources would go down because it would be difficult to extract the resources profitably.
If the resources can really be profitably extracted, it seems like countries with more fire-power would get involved as well. If they can’t be profitably extracted, the posturing is about nothing.
Tim,
One wonders about the demographics of the protesters; they seem to be fairly young in the various videos.
We as a global society seem to have an almost perfect storm, resources are becoming more expensive to extract, incomes are declining, the scramble to the top is becoming less cooperative and more like king of the hill, and there is no underlying common set of values.
Where we are seems like a Gordian Knot, it is occurring all over the world. It is interesting to see various viewpoints presented here.
Where are the mums and dads? Do a search on YouTube for The Villages, Fl. There is not much left for the young.
Dennis L.
I’ve been tear gassed on 3 continents—
And I’m in my 70’s.
I’m upset with the young people in my village. They have very little life experience and yet think they know everything. The men seem angrier than the women. Anything you say that doesn’t compart with their narrow set of understandings and ideas meets with crabbiness. They are are in a values/opinions straight jacket. It doesn’t occur to them that there are valid consideration outside of it.
I can relate to that, seems like you are describing a teenager. Most of us make it through that period.
Dennis L.
Read clock work orange its happening today