Where Energy Modeling Goes Wrong

There are a huge number of people doing energy modeling. In my opinion, nearly all of them are going astray in their modeling because they don’t understand how the economy really operates.

The modeling that comes closest to being correct is that which underlies the 1972 book, The Limits to Growth by Donella Meadows and others. This modeling was based on physical quantities of resources, with no financial system whatsoever. The base model, shown here, indicates that limits would be reached a few years later than we actually seem to be reaching them. The dotted black line in Figure 1 indicates where I saw the world economy to be in January 2019, based on the limits we already seemed to be reaching at that time.

Figure 1. Base scenario from 1972 Limits to Growth, printed using today’s graphics by Charles Hall and John Day in “Revisiting Limits to Growth After Peak Oil,” with dotted line added corresponding to where I saw the world economy to be in January 2019, based on how the economy was operating at that time.

The authors of The Limits to Growth have said that their model cannot be expected to be correct after limits hit (which is about now), so even this model is less than perfect. Thus, this model cannot be relied upon to show that population will continue to rise until after 2050.

Many readers are familiar with Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) calculations. These are favorites of many people following the Peak Oil problem. A high ratio of Energy Returned to Energy Invested is considered favorable, while a low ratio is considered unfavorable. Energy sources with similar EROEIs are supposedly equivalent. Even these similarities can be misleading. They make intermittent wind and solar appear far more helpful than they really are.

Other modeling, such as that by oil companies, is equally wrong. Their modeling tends to make future fossil fuel supplies look far more available than they really are.

This is all related to a talk I plan to give to energy researchers later in February. So far, all that is pinned down is the Summary, which I reproduce here as Section [1], below.

[1] Summary: The economy is approaching near-term collapse, not peak oil. The result is quite different.

The way a person views the world economy makes a huge difference in how one models it. A big issue is how connected the various parts of the economy are. Early researchers assumed that oil was the key energy product; if it were possible to find suitable substitutes for oil, the danger of exhaustion of oil resources could be delayed almost indefinitely.

In fact, the operation of the world economy is controlled by the laws of physics. All parts are tightly linked. The problem of diminishing returns affects far more than oil supply; it affects coal, natural gas, mineral extraction in general, fresh water production and food production. Based on the work of Joseph Tainter, we also know that added complexity is also subject to diminishing returns.

When a person models how the system works, it becomes apparent that as increasing complexity is added to the system, the portion of the economic output that can be returned to non-elite workers as goods and services drops dramatically. This leads to rising wage disparity as increasing complexity is added to the economy. As the economy approaches limits, rising wage disparity indirectly leads to a tendency toward low prices for oil and other commodities because a growing number of non-elite workers are unable to afford homes, cars and even proper nutrition. 

A second effect of added complexity is growing use of long-lasting goods available through technology. Many of these long-lasting goods are only affordable with financial time-shifting devices such as loans or the sale of shares of stock. As non-elite workers become increasingly unable to afford the output of the economy, these time-shifting devices provide a way to raise demand (and thus prices) for commodities of all types, including oil. These time-shifting devices are subject to manipulation by central banks, within limits.

Standard calculations of Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI) ignore the fact that added complexity tends to have a very detrimental impact on the economy because of the diminishing returns it produces. To correct for this, today’s EROEI calculations should only be used to compare energy systems with similar complexity. The least complex energy systems are based on burned biomass and power from animals. Fossil fuels represent a step upward in complexity, but they still can be stored until their use is required. Intermittent renewables are far ahead of fossil fuels in terms complexity: they require sophisticated systems of storage and distribution and therefore cannot be considered equivalent to oil or dispatchable electricity.

The lack of understanding of how the economy really works has led to the failure to understand several important points:

(i) Low oil prices rather than high are to be expected as the economy reaches limits,

(ii) Most fossil fuel reserves will be left in the ground because of low prices,

(iii) The economy is experiencing the historical phenomenon of collapse, rather than peak oil, and 

(iv) If the economy is not to collapse, we need energy sources providing a larger quantity of net energy per capita to offset diminishing returns.   

[2] The world’s energy problem, as commonly understood by researchers today

It is my observation that many researchers believe that we humans are in charge of what happens with future fossil fuel extraction, or with choosing to substitute intermittent renewables for fossil fuels. They generally do not see any problem with “running out” in the near future. If running out were imminent, the problem would likely be announced by spiking prices.

In the predominant view, the amount of future fossil fuels available depends upon the quantity of energy resources that can be extracted with available technology. Thus, a proper estimate of the resources that can be extracted is needed. Oil seems to be in shortest supply based on its reserve estimates and the vast benefits it provides to society. Thus, it is commonly believed that oil production will “peak” and begin to decline first, before coal and natural gas.

In this view, demand is something that we never need to worry about because energy, and especially oil, is a necessity. People will choose energy over other products because they will pay whatever is necessary to have adequate energy supplies. As a result, oil and other energy prices will rise almost endlessly, allowing much more to be extracted. These higher prices will also enable higher cost intermittent electricity to be substituted for today’s fossil fuels.

A huge amount of additional fossil fuels can be extracted, according to those who are primarily concerned about loss of biodiversity and climate change. Those who analyze EROEI tend to believe that falling EROEI will limit the quantity of future fossil fuels extracted to a smaller total extracted amount. Because of this, energy from additional sources, such as intermittent wind and solar, will be required to meet the total energy demand of society.

The focus of EROEI studies is on whether the EROEI of a given proposed substitution is, in some sense, high enough to add energy to the economy. The calculation of EROEI makes no distinction between energy available only through highly complex systems and energy available from less complex systems.

EROEI researchers, or perhaps those who rely on the indications of EROEI researchers, seem to believe that the energy needs of economies are flexible within a very wide range. Thus, an economy can shrink its energy consumption without a particularly dire impact.

[3] The real story seems to be that the adverse outcome we are reaching is collapse, not peak oil. The economy is a self-organizing system powered by energy. This makes it behave in very unexpected ways.

[3a] The economy is tightly connected by the laws of physics.

Energy consumption (dissipation) is necessary for every aspect of the economy. People often understand that making goods and services requires energy dissipation. What they don’t realize is that almost all of today’s jobs require energy dissipation, as well. Without supplemental energy, humans could only gather wild fruits and vegetables and hunt using the simplest of tools. Or, they could attempt simple horticulture by using a stick to dig a place in the ground to plant a seed.

In physics terms, the economy is a dissipative structure, which is a self-organizing structure that grows over time. Other examples of dissipative structures include hurricanes, plants and animals of all types, ecosystems, and star systems. Without a supply of energy to dissipate (that is, food to eat, in the case of humans), these dissipative structures would collapse.

We know that the human body has many different systems, such as a cardiovascular system, digestive system and nervous system. The economy has many different systems, too, and is just as tightly connected. For example, the economy cannot get along without a transportation system any more than a human can get along without a cardiovascular system.

This self-organizing system acts without our direction, just as our brain or circulatory system acts without our direction. In fact, we have very little control over these systems.

The self-organizing economy allows common belief systems to arise that seem to be right but are really based on models with many incorrect assumptions. People desperately need and want a “happily ever after” solution. The strong need for a desirable outcome favors the selection of models that lead to the conclusion that if there is a problem, it is many years away. Conflicting political views seem to be based on different, equally wrong, models of how world leaders can solve the energy predicament that the world is facing.

The real story is that the world’s self-organizing economy will determine for us what is ahead, and there is virtually nothing we can do to change the result. Strangely enough, if we look at the long term pattern, there almost seems to be a guiding hand behind the result. According to Peter Ward and Donald Brownlee in Rare Earth, there have been a huge number of seeming coincidences that have allowed life on Earth to take hold and flourish for four billion years. Perhaps this “luck” will continue.

[3b] As the economy reaches limits, commodities of many types reach diminishing returns simultaneously.

It is indeed true that the economy reaches diminishing returns in oil supply as it reaches limits. Oil is very valuable because it is energy dense and easily transported. The oil that can be extracted, refined, and delivered to needed markets using the least amount of resources (including human labor) tends to be extracted first. It is later that deeper wells are built that are farther from markets. Because of these issues, oil extraction does tend to reach diminishing returns, as more is extracted.

If this were the only aspect of the economy that was experiencing diminishing returns, then the models coming from a peak oil perspective would make sense. We could move away from oil, simply by transferring oil use to appropriately chosen substitutes.

It becomes clear when a person looks at the situation that commodities of all kinds reach diminishing returns. Fresh water reaches diminishing returns. We can add more by using desalination and pumping water to where it is required, but this approach is hugely expensive. As population and industrialization grows, the need for fresh water grows, making diminishing returns for fresh water a real issue.

Minerals of all kinds reach diminishing returns, including uranium, lithium, copper and phosphate rock (used for fertilizer). The reason this occurs is because we tend to extract these minerals faster than they are replaced by the weathering of rocks, including bedrock. In fact, useable topsoil tends to reach diminishing returns because of erosion. Also, with increasing population, the amount of food required keeps increasing, putting further pressure on farmland and making it harder to retain an acceptable level of topsoil.

[3c] Increased complexity leads to diminishing returns as well.

In his book, The Collapse of Complex Societies, Joseph Tainter points out that complexity reaches diminishing returns, just as commodities do.

As an example, it is easy to see that added spending on healthcare reaches diminishing returns. The discovery of antibiotics clearly had a huge impact on healthcare, at relatively little cost. Now, a recent article is entitled, The hunt for antibiotics grows harder as resistance builds. The dollar payback on other drugs tends to fall as well, as solutions to the most common diseases are found, and researchers must turn their attention to diseases affecting only, perhaps, 500 people globally.

Similarly, spending on advanced education reaches diminishing returns. Continuing the medical example above, educating an increasing number of researchers, all looking for new antibiotics, may eventually lead to success in discovering more antibiotics. But the payback with respect to the education of these researchers will not be nearly as great as the payback for educating the early researchers who found the first antibiotics.

[3d] Wages do not rise sufficiently so that all of the higher costs associated with the many types of diminishing returns can be recouped simultaneously.

The healthcare system (at least in the United States) tends to let its higher costs flow through to consumers. We can see this by looking at how much higher the Medical Care Consumer Price Index (CPI) rises compared to the All Items CPI in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Consumer price index for Medical Care versus for All Items, in chart made by the Federal Reserve of St. Louis.

The high (and rapidly rising) cost of advanced education is another cost that is being passed on to consumers–the students and their parents. In this case, loans are used to make the high cost look less problematic.

Of course, if consumers are burdened with higher medical and educational costs, it makes it difficult to afford the higher cost of energy products, as well. With these higher costs, young people tend to live with their parents longer, saving on the energy products needed to have their own homes and vehicles. Needless to say, the lower net income for many people, after healthcare costs and student loan repayments are deducted, acts to reduce the demand for oil and energy products, and thus contributes to the problem of continued low oil prices.

[3e] Added complexity tends to increase wage disparities. The reduced spending by lower income workers tends to hold down fossil fuel prices, similar to the impact identified in Section [3d].

As the economy becomes more complex, companies tend to become larger and more hierarchical. Elite workers (ones with more training or with more supervisory responsibility) earn more than non-elite workers. Globalization adds to this effect, as workers in high wage countries increasingly compete with workers in lower wage countries. Even computer programmers can encounter this difficulty, as programming is increasingly moved to China and India.

Figure 3. Figure by Pew Research Center in Trends in Income and Wealth Inequality, published January 9, 2020. https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/

Individuals with low incomes spend a disproportionately large share of their incomes on commodities because everyone needs to eat approximately 2,000 calories of food per day. In addition, everyone needs some kind of shelter, clothing and basic transportation. All of these types of consumption are commodity intensive. People with very high incomes tend to buy disproportionately more goods and services that are not very resource intensive, such as education for their children at elite universities. They may also use part of their income to buy shares of stock, hoping their value will rise.

With a shift in the distribution of incomes toward those with high earnings, the demand for commodities of all types tends to stagnate or even fall. Fewer people are able to buy new cars, and fewer people can afford vacations involving travel. Thus, as more complexity is added, there tends to be downward pressure on the price of oil and other energy products.

[4] Oil prices have been falling behind those needed by oil producers since 2012.

Figure 4. Figure created by Gail Tverberg using EIA average monthly Brent oil price data, adjusted for inflation using the CPI Index for All Items for Urban Consumers.

Back in February 2014, Steven Kopits gave a presentation at Columbia University explaining the state of the oil industry. I wrote a post describing this presentation called, Beginning of the End? Oil Companies Cut Back on Spending. Oil companies were reporting that prices had been too low for them to make an adequate profit for reinvestment, back as early as 2012. In inflation-adjusted terms, this was when oil prices were about $120 per barrel.

Even Middle Eastern oil exporting countries need surprisingly high oil prices because their economies depend on the profits of oil companies to provide the vast majority of their tax revenue. If oil prices are too low, adequate taxes cannot be collected. Without funds for jobs programs and food subsidies, there are likely to be uprisings by unhappy citizens who cannot maintain an adequate standard of living.

Looking at Figure 4, we see that there has been very little time that Brent oil prices have been above $120 per barrel. Even with all of the recent central bank stimulus and deficit spending by economies around the world, Brent oil prices remain below $60 per barrel.

[5] Interest rates and the amount of debt make a huge difference in oil prices, too.

Based on Figure 4, oil prices are highly irregular. Much of this irregularity seems to be associated with interest rate and debt level changes. In fact, in July 2008, what I would call the debt bubble associated with subprime housing and credit cards collapsed, bringing oil prices down from their peak abruptly. In late 2008, Quantitative Easing (QE) (aimed at bringing interest rates down) was added just prior to an upturn on prices in 2009 and 2010. Prices fell again, when the United States discontinued QE in late 2014.

If we think about it, increased debt makes purchases such as cars, homes and new factories more affordable. In fact, the lower the interest rate, the more affordable these items become. The number of purchases of any of these items can be expected to rise with more debt and lower interest rates. Thus, we would expect oil prices to rise as debt is added and fall as it is taken away. Now, there are many questions: Why haven’t oil prices risen more, with all of the stimulus that has been added? Are we reaching the limits of stimulus? Are interest rates as low as they can go, and the amount of debt outstanding as high as it can go?

[6] The growing complexity of the economy is contributing to the huge amount of debt outstanding.

In a very complex economy, a huge number of durable goods and services are produced. Examples of durable goods would include machines used in factories and pipelines of all kinds. Durable goods would also include vehicles of all types, including both vehicles used for businesses and vehicles used by consumers for their own benefit. As broadly defined here, durable goods would include buildings of all types, including factories, schools, offices and homes. It would also include wind turbines and solar panels.

There would also be durable services produced. For example, a college degree would have lasting benefit, it is hoped. A computer program would have value after it is completed. Thus, a consulting service is able to sell its programs to prospective buyers.

Somehow, there is a need to pay for all of these durable goods. We can see this most easily for the consumer. A loan that allows durable goods to be paid for over their expected life will make these goods more affordable.

Similarly, a manufacturer needs to pay the many workers making all of the durable goods. Their labor is adding value to the finished products, but this value will not be realized until the finished products are put into operation.

Other financing approaches can also be used, including the sale of bonds or shares of stock. The underlying intent is to provide financial time-shifting services. Interest rates associated with these financial time-shifting services are now being manipulated downward by central banks to make these services more affordable. This is part of what keeps stock prices high and commodity prices from falling lower than their current levels.

These loans, bonds and shares of stock are providing a promise of future value. This value will exist only if there are enough fossil fuels and other resources to create physical goods and services to fulfill these promises. Central banks can print money, but they cannot print actual goods and services. If I am right about collapse being ahead, the whole debt system seems certain to collapse. Shares of stock seem certain to lose their value. This is concerning. The end point of all of the added complexity seems to be financial collapse, unless the system can truly add the promised goods and services.

[7] Intermittent electricity fits very poorly into just-in-time supply lines.

A complex economy requires long supply lines. Usually, these supply lines are operated on a just-in-time basis. If one part of a supply line encounters problems, then manufacturing needs to stop. For example, automobile manufacturers in many parts of the world are finding that they need to suspend production because it is impossible to source the necessary semiconductor chips. If electricity is temporarily unavailable, this is another way of disrupting the supply chain.

The standard way to work around temporary breaks in supply chains is to build greater inventory, but this is expensive. Additional inventory needs to be stored and watched over. It likely needs financing, as well.

[8] The world economy today seems to be near collapse.

The self-organizing economy is now pushing the economy in many strange ways that indirectly lead to less energy consumption and eventually collapse. Even prior to COVID-19, the world economy appeared to be reaching growth limits, as indicated in Figure 1, which was published in January 2019. For example, recycling of many renewables was no longer profitable at lower oil prices after 2014. This led China to discontinue most of its recycling efforts, effective January 1, 2018, even though this change resulted in the loss of jobs. China’s car sales fell in 2018, 2019, and 2020, a strange pattern for a supposedly rapidly growing country.

The response of world leaders to COVID-19 has pushed the world economy further in the direction of contraction. Businesses that were already weak are the ones having the most difficulty in being able to operate profitably.

Furthermore, debt problems are growing around the world. For example, it is unclear whether the world will require as many shopping malls or office buildings in the future. A person would logically expect the value of the unneeded buildings to drop, reducing the value of many of these properties below their outstanding debt level.

When these issues are combined, it looks likely that the world economy may not be far from collapse, which is one of my contentions from Section [1]. It also looks like my other contentions from Section [1] are true:

(i) Low oil prices rather than high are to be expected as the economy reaches limits,

(ii) Most fossil fuel reserves will be left in the ground because of low prices, and

(iv) If the economy is not to collapse, we need energy sources providing a larger quantity of net energy per capita to offset diminishing returns. 

Regarding (iv), the available energy supply from wind and solar (net or otherwise) is tiny relative to the total energy required to operate the world economy. This issue, alone, would disqualify a Great Reset using wind and solar from truly being a solution for today’s problems. Instead, plans for a Great Reset tend to act as a temporary cover-up for collapse.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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3,331 Responses to Where Energy Modeling Goes Wrong

  1. Texas braces for water & cell service outages as massive blackout leaves MILLIONS freezing in the dark ahead of 2nd snow storm

    A number of cities in central Texas have warned of water issues, with a prolonged outage in the city of Pflugerville prompting local officials to ask residents to boil water before consuming it in order to destroy harmful bacteria. Manville and Taylor have issued similar notices.

    Officials in Abilene said the city has lost water service altogether, leaving 124,000 residents entirely without a reliable source of drinking water on Monday night.

    People at the Austin Fire Department are battling with the element that is usually on their side when they deal with blazes. Water pipes have been bursting by the hundreds throughout the city as it was gripped by extreme cold. Responding to them was a challenge, since the AFD have their plate full with other emergencies.
    https://www.rt.com/usa/515660-texas-storm-cell-water-service/?fbclid=IwAR32KMCpL1320yOte-rEmlbIKRi_Qa2uIukppgomR58F-q3sFcKsHsWt3Q0

  2. It looks like what we are going to have is stagflation. Inflation, not b/c of demand, but b/c of lack of supply. Producers will get squeezed and cut back on manufacturing. The fed cannot do anything about that. I think we are probably setting up for 1970s stagflation scenario.

    • I think that lack of supply and lack of demand go together. There are people laid off from work and broken supply chains related to the lack of supply. The lack of supply works differently than expected.

  3. ECB balance sheet has hit fresh ATH as Lagarde keeps the printing press rumbling. Total assets rose by another €24.7bn to €7,070.1bn past week on QE. ECB balance sheet now equal to 71% of Eurozone GDP vs Fed’s 34.7%, BoE’s 36.9% or BoJ’s 128.7%.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EuYuVCXXcAM-E3S?format=png&name=900×900

    • The first home we purchased in Atlanta had water pipes in the outside wall. We had to learn to keep the water running whenever the temperature fell below freezing.

  4. Tim Groves says:

    Lots of good videos today!

    Well done Lord Sumpton for putting his head above the parapit! Blogger and video maker We Got a Problem talks us through Lord Sumption’s latest article in the Telegraph on Why the Liberal Democracy, once abandoned, will not be easy to regain.

    LORD SUMPTION POINTS OUT THE IRREVERSIBLE DANGERS OF WHAT THE PUBLIC ARE ALLOWING TO HAPPEN

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/aMyaDI8PxjM/
    https://www.bitchute.com/video/aMyaDI8PxjM/

  5. Fed’s Daly says don’t be fearful about too-high inflation

    “We should be less fearful about inflation around the corner, and recognize that that fear costs millions of jobs, millions of livelihoods, millions of hopes and dreams,” she said, referring to the economic damage that could result if the Fed tightens policy too soon.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-daly-idUSKBN2AG2NG?taid=602c5329a77dbd00019e22ff&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

  6. New Zealand Officials working on potential vaccine certificate to be used for travel

    The Ministry of Health is working closely with the World Health Organisation (WHO) on the issue, which is proposing a “Smart Vaccination Certificate”.

    Crucially, it also appears proof of vaccine could be required to enter New Zealand with the spokesperson saying “We expect if these standards are able to be implemented, they would apply as much to New Zealanders going overseas as those returning home.”

    The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is developing a Travel Pass app, where test results and vaccine certificates can be stored. From March, 20 airlines including Emirates and Singapore Airlines will begin using the app. Air New Zealand says it is looking into it.
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300232220/covid19-officials-working-on-potential-vaccine-certificate-to-be-used-for-travel

    • I hope that New Zealand can find imported jet fuel to use, if they actually plan to make use of the certificates. If their last oil refinery is leaving, they will have a problem.

      • JesseJames says:

        Good one Gail, allowing their only refinery to close spells doom for their future ability to conduct international travel and trade…not to mention their ability to continue with an industrialized economy.

  7. Health experts call for tight new lockdown as British COVID-19 variant sweeps through Italy

    Only a few days after he was sworn in as Italian prime minister, Mario Draghi is facing calls to put his economic reform agenda on hold and concentrate on a new health emergency as the highly contagious British variant of COVID-19 sweeps through the country.

    Leading health authorities this week urged Mr. Draghi’s unity government to implement stricter measures to fight the virus even though the number of daily new COVID-19 positives is well below its November peak.

    They fear that the British variant, known as the variante inglese in Italy, will soon trigger a surge in infections and fatalities unless a strategy is implemented that could include a tight national lockdown like the one seen in the spring.

    The Instituto Superiore di Sanità, Italy’s top health agency, revealed in a technical report published Monday that the British variant has been found in 17.8 per cent of new cases, and as high as 59 per cent in some areas – an indicator that it could become the dominant strain.
    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-health-experts-call-for-tight-new-lockdown-as-british-covid-19-variant/

  8. The End of Crypto in India? Proposed Crypto Ban Has Big Implications
    A proposed ban that would effectively end investment in private cryptocurrencies could have serious consequences.

    While not all of the details of the bill are yet in the public domain, crypto investors are to be given a three to six-month transition period before they will be barred from investing in crypto through both foreign and domestic exchanges. Investors will also be required to exit their holdings, though some are exploring options for storing their cryptocurrencies independently.

    Additionally, there are rumours that the bill will propose the creation of a government-controlled digital currency known as the ‘Digital Rupee’ that would replace all privately-created digital currencies.
    https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/news/the-end-of-crypto-in-india-proposed-crypto-ban-has-big-implications/

  9. Vaccine Passports Inch Closer in Europe, But Backlash Mounting

    Estonia is working with the World Health Organization (WHO) on a project to create standardized electronic vaccination certification the country hopes could become the “gold standard” and attract global recognition.

    Marten Kaevats, an adviser to the Estonian government on technology, told AFP the primary challenge for a globally endorsed system is to ensure that anyone checking the certificate can “trust the source.” The Estonian solution is looking at producing a digital version of the extant paper yellow-card used to prove yellow fever vaccination.
    https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/vaccine-passports-inch-closer-europe-backlash-mounting

  10. Ed says:

    Full head mask with HEPA filter by Michael Savage.

  11. Fast Eddy says:

    Provincial deaths Jan 2020 to July 2020.

    Ontario for example had less deaths in 2020 from Jan to July, then the previous years.
    2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 had more deaths per 100,000. Graph is on page 45.

    You might notice heart attacks, strokes, flu/pneumonia and cancer rates dropped in 2020.

    That information is also in there.

    https://rainbowwarrior2005.wordpress.com/2020/12/09/the-many-dangers-of-lockdowns/

  12. Malcopian says:

    A song that is not often heard today, but with a sense of danger that fits the times.

    The Who – Slip Kid

    • Duncan Idaho says:

      I saw the Who perform in the 60’s—
      They have had ups and downs.
      (like everyone)

      • Malcopian says:

        ‘I saw the Who perform in the 60’s’

        Never saw them in concert. Saw Bowie twice in the first half of the 1970s, also the Faces, and Roxy Music before they declined into ‘dance soul’.

    • Malcopian says:

      Let’s See Action – The Who

    • JMS says:

      it’s a pity that so many competent sociologists got lost to pop music in the 60s…
      IOW why my god why 60’s pop harmonies are generally so awful and vapid and naff why WHY?! I’m positive there’s a nobel prize awaiting the scholar who solves that psycho-social enigma.

      (Sorry!:) )

      • Tim Groves says:

        My granny solved that conundrum back in the 60s.

        “They’re all on drugs,” she observed. “And yer can’t ‘ere a word they’re shouting. Long-haired layabouts, the lot of them.”

        She preferred Sophie Tucker.

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        “IOW why my god why 60’s pop harmonies are generally so awful and vapid and naff why WHY?!”

        average intelligence declining on the social side, and the new structure of the music business where bands were given almost unlimited freedom to make their own music, and much of it sold very well, beginning with Beatlemania.

        soon enough 1970ish the low standards were being surpassed by overall higher quality singers who were outcompeting the lower quality, and that competition was not surprising since there was even bigger money than in the 60s.

        “I’m positive there’s a nobel prize awaiting the scholar who solves that psycho-social enigma.”

        I am willing to accept the monetary award.

        • JMS says:

          Hmmm, I don’t know, Tim’s grandmother’s theory seems more plausible and economical: it’s all about the length of the joints and hair. As they became shorter, from the beginning of the 70’s, the musical quality increased exponentially until mid 80’s, where after a short plateau it began to fall abruptly.
          The nobel commitee will have to decide.

  13. Mirror on the wall says:

    It turns out that the City of London was not too big to fall.

    > New York ‘gains at London’s expense’ post-Brexit

    A survey of top executives found London’s reputation as a global financial hub continues to fall, while New York’s star rises.

    Of the 250 finance professionals surveyed by consultancy Duff & Phelps, just 31% named London as the world’s premier financial hub. 60% plumped for New York. London’s mind share was down from 34% in 2019 and has declined by 22% since 2018.

    “It’s a sign of momentum,” Monique Melis, managing director and global head of compliance and regulatory consulting at Duff & Phelps, told Yahoo Finance UK.

    “It’s a big cake and there’s a piece for everybody but one shouldn’t loose sight of the momentum, simply because once you lose it you can never get it back.

    “When I started in the City in ’94, the UK had just got hold of German bund trading. When the German bunds and the eurobonds started trading in London, they never went back.”

    Data last week showed Amsterdam had overtaken London as the share trading hub of Europe. New York, meanwhile, has won hundreds of billions of euros-worth of derivatives trade from London. Both changes have happened since the turn of the year when Brexit took effect.

    Duff & Phelps pinned the blame on Brexit, which it said had undermined London’s reputation as a global hub.

    “With the end of the transition period and Brexit formalized, it’s inevitable that London will continue to lose ground in the battle to be the world’s leading financial center,” the company wrote in its Global Regulatory Outlook 2021 report.

    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/new-york-london-financial-centre-duff-and-phelps-134929185.html

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      ‘Yes siree, you betcha!’

      > Johnson reiterates commitment to NI Protocol during US TV interview

      Prime Minister Boris Johnson reiterated his commitment to the Northern Ireland Protocol while appearing on American television on Sunday.

      Despite urging from unionists to scrap the protocol, when asked on CBS’s Face the Nation programme if he would stick to the Brexit deal agreed with the EU in December the PM replied: “You bet.”

      Tensions are rising amid unionist claims the protocol cuts Northern Ireland off from the rest of the UK and is causing trade difficulties. Mr Johnson has been urged to invoke Article 16 to suspend the agreement.

      New US President Joe Biden, who has strong Irish heritage, has previously stated that Brexit could not be allowed to threaten peace in Northern Ireland and that the Irish border must remain open.

      During the appearance Mr Johnson was asked if he could reassure President Biden and the US Congress he would commit to sticking with the Brexit deal “in all circumstances”.

      “You bet. This is fundamental for us, the Anglo-Irish Agreement, the Peace Agreement, the Good Friday process, the Belfast Agreement, these agreements are absolutely crucial for our continued stability, and success as a UK,” the PM replied.

      “I have a great relationship with Dublin, with Michael Martin, the Irish Taoiseach. And we’re going to work together to do some great things and be in no doubt we don’t want to do anything to jeopardize the achievements of the Northern Irish peace process. It’s absolutely vital.”

      https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/johnson-reiterates-commitment-to-ni-protocol-during-us-tv-interview-40092688.html

      • Robert Firth says:

        Boris, there is an easy way out. Offer the Republic of Ireland an unconditional free trade deal, and a promise that any future UK trade deals will automatically include Ireland. The Irish are currently furious at the EU, and this may be their best opportunity to get out.

      • Jarle says:

        “I have a great relationship with Dublin, with Michael Martin, the Irish Taoiseach. And we’re going to work together to do some great things and be in no doubt we don’t want to do anything to jeopardize the achievements of the Northern Irish peace process. It’s absolutely vital.”

        Obamatalk as I labeled BS like this years ago …

    • Minority Of One says:

      “has won hundreds of billions of euros-worth of derivatives trade from London”

      I would have thought that since much if not most of derivative trading is gambling in the casino, this ‘trade’ moving from London to New York is a good thing for London.

  14. Fast Eddy says:

    https://swprs.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/sweden-eu-usa-dpm.png

    Covid – The Illusion of Control

    As the above chart shows, covid deaths in Sweden – without lockdowns, masks and primary school closures, and with one of the lowest ICU capacities in Europe – are almost identical to the EU average and somewhat lower than in the US. In other words, the many measures proposed by supposed experts have been largely ineffective medically, but highly destructive socially and economically.

    The only effective intervention to reduce severe disease and deaths – absent early border controls or all-out totalitarian policies – has been ignored or blocked by most Western health authorities: evidence-based early and prophylactic treatment. It may have been just too cost-efficient.

    SPR readers were among the first in the world to get the actual facts about the real covid mortality profile; the huge importance of nursing homes (still ignored by many authorities); the ineffec­tive­ness of cloth masks, lockdowns and ‘contact tracing’; the remdesivir fraud; the anti-HCQ ploy; the reality of long covid; the ventilator disaster; the trouble with PCR tests; the Mojiang miners virus origin hypothesis; widespread media disinformation; and effective early treatment options.

    Overall, the covid pandemic is closest to a medium influenza pandemic (like 1957 and 1968) hitting aged populations in industrialized countries with a high rate of cardiovascular disease. With the notable exceptions of children and Black Africa, covid is clearly worse than the ‘seasonal flu’, but clearly milder than the 1918 influenza and previous global pandemics.

    We wish our readers a healthy and positive 2021.

    Additional charts https://swprs.org/covid-the-illusion-of-control/

    Anyone think The Elders have not seen that data? Anyone think Covid is not cover for something big… it has to be absolutely mind-blowing what they have in mind for us … cuz it’s destroying their power base.

    • If we flatten the curve, it gives the virus more time to mutate, so we have a bigger problem going forward.

      • MM says:

        Not sure. Many different hosts = many more mutations. I would say that burn through and flat curve in the mutation scenario should play out similarly. The first mutation in the UK was said to have occured in a very long treated patient probably with blood donation. Well THAT makes recombination very likely!
        On the other side: many hosts make different immunizations. That makes it statistically more difficult for the virus to survive.
        I always opted for the burn through. But I admit that it includes lives lost.

        But we have lost a lot of elderly although we destroyed our civ.

    • nikoB says:

      Managing collapse ain’t easy. Out of all the strategies it will probably work the best. At least avoiding nuclear incidents.

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        a managed decline would be best, but too bad almost every member of the herd is all in on pedal to the metal, live for today, more resources now, gimme gimme gimme.

        so the system will proceed with its self-organizing decline/collapse.

        it’s the same familiar story.

  15. Ed says:

    I would love to settle in Wales. They have a great flag. Please fight for independence for the lizard Queen. Who will be King of Wales?

    • Tim Groves says:

      The Welsh are welcome to the Prince of Wales. At a pinch, the English could spare HRH. But if Charles isn’t up for it, then they could call on the likes of Anthony Hopkins, Tom Jones, Shirley Bassey, Gareth Edwards, or Patrick Stewart.

  16. Some antibodies can dampen antiviral defences in people with severe COVID
    Defects in the immune defences induced by the protein interferon are associated with some severe cases of COVID-19. An analysis of patients’ blood samples sheds light on how antibodies might contribute to these defects.
    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00352-0

    • Not being a biology major, I am afraid this article was basically over my head. The article ends,

      With several anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccines currently approved, it will be useful to determine the antibody profile that vaccination elicits, and to compare it with the profile that develops during SARS-CoV-2 infection. Such a comparison would help to reveal the checks and balances used by the immune system to help keep us alive during severe infection.

      In other words, do the various vaccinations lead to the same anybody profile that having the illness does?

      I got the impression that some antibody profiles seemed to be harmful:

      ” people with severe COVID-19 develop antibodies that engage with CD32B Fc receptors and thereby blunt interferon-mediated defence responses.”

      The article also says,

      “there are also reported examples of SARS-CoV-2 infection generating antibodies that turn against the host. People with COVID-19 can develop antibodies that target nucleic acids and host proteins.”

      This sounds like a nasty virus!

  17. Yoshua says:

    WTI 60

    How long before something breaks with rising energy and food prices?

    • Ed says:

      It always takes longer than we think. Give it a year.

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        perhaps glowball coooooling will be an unanticipated factor in rising FF prices.

        2020 high for WTI was 64 so that’s reachable in the short term.

        60s is far from a high price for oil.

        it seems to take longer than what some persons think.

        it will go up and go down, give it a few years.

    • Duncan Idaho says:

      highest in a year—–
      we shall see.

  18. NomadicBeer says:

    Gail, I found the article about the US excess deaths (https://uncoverdc.com/2021/01/25/have-400000-americans-died-of-covid-19/).
    I posted here because I think it’s worth reading, even though the researcher used data before the CDC updated it (with a huge chunk).

    Is this normal? Lots of data comes in at the end of the year? In that case, my mistake.

  19. Dennis L. says:

    Do we know what is going to happen going forward? Perhaps from history.

    “Global Crisis” is a history of cultures from the Far East to the American colonies and what occurred when a solar minimum occurred which resulted in a 1 degree C decrease in solar energy reaching earth. Approximately 1/3 of the population perished secondary to this in a very brutal period with seemingly constant warfare among everyone.

    We here seem to agree there is a decrease in all types of fossil fuel energy and very possibly a decrease in solar output as well. Texas is not a trend, three more years of the same and perhaps a trend.

    Political turmoil, social disruption seems to be occurring over much of the world. American elites are fighting amongst themselves more than looking at possible ways to minimize our problems. It has become a shouting match in the streets and in the halls of political discourse.

    JMG is a great fan of looking at history to understand the present. If the solar minimum is real, if we are indeed past peak fossil fuels then we can expect a leveling of man made warming. Combine this with a solar minimum and how various cultures handled the 17th century decline in energy may be instructive.

    My guess, it is a good time to keep your head low and your butt well covered.

    Shout out to CHS, he was one of the first to mention this book in one of his blogs.

    Dennis L.

  20. Gerard d'Olivat says:

    hello Gail I am referring to the title and content of your article.

    1. in fact, the content and thrust of your assertion is clear.
    Moreover, this is not the first time you have stated this. The fossil era is nearing its end and perhaps even ‘sooner’ than the calculations of Hugo Bardi cs suggest to us anyway. Let me preface that with a plausible theory. I study many African countries (former European colonies) in terms of energy and it is very clear that the decline in resource extraction, networks and energy supply etc. there is irreversible.
    In fact, you only give the ‘fossil’ era a short time to come. 2050 is already very ‘dramatically’ far in the future.

    2. I see that at the same time you are very concerned about the introduction and development of the inferior renawables. That certainly gets a lot of attention in the comments. Black outs etc.
    I share your view on that by the way and I see the whole greendeal as an at potty attempt that violates all laws of thermodynamics and physics. All these ‘greendeal’ plans, by the way, extend over a period of let’s take for convenience until after 2050.

    3. If I take the ‘models’ of your own argument the limits in the 2050 time frame are very illusory for a fossil fuel based ‘civilization’ Why then are you so concerned about the introduction of renwables? which at best will be an insignificant catalyst in a process which is irreversible?

    4. It reminds me of signs that used to hang in international trains…. ‘don’t lean out the window’, which seems to be very dangerous….
    That the train itself is about to derail is apparently irrelevant. 😉

    • Hubbs says:

      The (over)reliance on renewables will only accelerate the depletion of the remaining EROEI fossil fuels. But it’s just like the deficit. The politicians always claim that it can be reversed by their plans for more economic growth.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      I mentioned the ‘we are burning 6 barrels for everyone 1 we find’ and Covid being cover to reduce that burn rate (if you are on your proverbial last tank of fuel …. would you not stop joy rides)….

      And they immediately trot out ‘oil production is not projected to decline for at least 40 years’…. and by then we will have transitioned to renewables.

      Of course they read that in the MSM… whose job it is to control what we think… and they do NOT want us thinking — or knowing — we are well past peak and in the Desperation Phase….

      They believe that the MSM would actually run headlines announcing Peak Oil….or that someone would leak it (Colin Campbell and others have leaked it…) how naive is that!!!!

      Consider this….

      Suppose NASA scientists spotted a massive asteroid that is certain to strike Earth on October 10th 2025.

      Would we be told of this?

      If yes then what are the consequences of informing 8 billion people that life ends in 5 years?

      – epic levels of depression, hopelessness, drug and alcohol abuse, and suicide as people understand there is no future

      – difficulty motivating people to work, attend school or do much of anything
      – investment would plunge

      – the economy would quickly collapse

      Would someone at NASA leak this info?

      Highly unlikely.

      – this information would be highly classified and a leaker would be imprisoned (Julian Assange is currently in a dungeon as a message to would-be leakers)

      – why would someone want to leak such information knowing that if the masses became aware of it, it would collapse the economy. There is zero upside to releasing this info.

      – even if someone wanted to leak this information, the MSM would refuse to publish it (see collapse economy) — in fact if the leaker approached the MSM the FBI would be called and the leaker would be put in chains.

      – if the leaker tried to post a presentation on Youtube or Facebook or any other social media, they would be censored for posting ‘fake news’

      – If the MSM and social media refuse to publish the leak, then how does the leaker expose the leak? Does he stand on a busy street corner shouting ‘the end is nigh – an asteroid will demolish the planet in 5 years!!! (repent…)’ Does he corner people at cocktail parties and explain to them the physics of the trajectory of the asteroid and how it is certain to hit Earth at a specific time? He’d quickly be labelled a conspiracy theorist and crazy.

      No, I do not think NASA would release this information nor would anyone leak it.

      That said, is there an ‘asteroid’ approaching Earth?

      If there was… and we could see it headed towards us…. would we be told? Or would we be told not to worry, it will pass by harmlessly.

      And we’d go about our business without another thought of the asteroid (even though when we look at the sky that asteroid would appear to be on target for a direct hit).

      • Ed says:

        Eddy, Eddy, Eddy, you have to remember the gigantic oil reserves under Antarctica. Elon needs to get his tunneler to Antarctica.

      • Tim Groves says:

        By this logic (which I fully endorse, by the way), if it was announced that a big asteroid was going to hit the earth in five years, then we could be fairly confident it’s a scam.

        And by the same logic, any announced threat that scares the sheeple is likely to be a scam to fleece them, and any actual threat that would be really scary to the sheeple will not be announced ahead of time.

        I’ll frame this and stick it on the wall next to “Home Sweet Home” to save time and anguish the next time they try to scare me about something.

      • Bobby says:

        Marsdan point refinery being reduced to holding terminal. Signs of FF decline are making headlines in NZ alright, but COVID is featured as the main cause driving the economic downer, the narrative makes sense to the masses.

        https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/436579/refining-new-zealand-reports-net-193m-loss

      • Jarle says:

        As of late I’ve heard myself saying that I hope the end of time would hurry up and arrive. Time won’t end of course but a fat comet would help …

      • Robert Firth says:

        A topic explored in a beautiful and highly imaginative science fiction novella by John Brunner: “Earth is but a Star”. The title is taken from another beautiful work, a poem by James Elroy Flecker that is the prelude to his play “Hassan”:
        https://www.poetrynook.com/poem/golden-journey-samarkand

      • rufustiresias999 says:

        But Gail is leaking the information of collapse on the f..g internet. Why does no one stop her? She is indeed extremely dangerous. More people will believe in collapse, sooner it will come.

        • rufustiresias999 says:

          Normal people have a psychic system of resilience we usually call denial. We were discussing with colleagues last week about retirement, investements, planning and strategy. The discussion was animated. My colleague asked what my plans were. I answered him that I didn’t think there would still be a retirement funding system in the 30s when I’m supposed to retire (in France, it’s almost all regulated). End of discussion. No further question, no “why do think that?“. End of discussion.

          • Tsubion says:

            End of discussion. No further question, no “why do think that?“. End of discussion.

            I know how you feel. I get that all the time!

  21. Thierry says:

    Let’s go deeper with craziness
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelpeck/2014/01/13/iran-says-tall-white-space-aliens-control-america/
    Don’t really understand the purpose of that story, what will be next? Interesting time!

    • Kowalainen says:

      I’m tall and white. Would I count?

      👽🛸

      • Robert Firth says:

        Probably not, but the might recruit you for the Eidechse Jugend. “Today Andromeda; tomorrow the Universe! Sieg Heil!”

        • Kowalainen says:

          I’m all for some galactic drama, comedy, warmongering and domination by relentless evolution. Find any stagnant civilization, proceed to meddle with them without mercy.

          The only question remaining; when does the UFO come and pick me up? Let’s switch out the swastikas for the Yin-Yang and a picture of Darwin+Earth as decoration of the wolf pack battleships.

          And, yeah, forget about the regalia and pomp. Some a few bowls of rice a day and some technomagic wizardry to play with. kthx.

          Alright, I’m ready. 😁👍

    • I am not willing to pay for Forbes.

      The way I read the link, this article is from 2014. It sounds crazy, regardless.

  22. Russia is seeking to unlock unknown prehistoric viruses up to 50,000 years old by extracting biological material from carcasses of ancient animals frozen in permafrost.

    The work is spearheaded by Vector State Research Centre of Virology and Biotechnology, once a Cold War biological warfare research plant established by Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev. The high-security facility near Novosibirsk in Siberia is currently developing Russia’s second Covid-19 vaccine to compete with better-known Sputnik V.
    https://metro.co.uk/2021/02/16/russia-seeks-to-unlock-prehistoric-viruses-in-frozen-animal-carcasses-14091762/

  23. I rearranged comments again. Now the new comments are on top, instead of the bottom. It is a long ways to the bottom of 50 comments (including responses) to see what is new.

    If a person wants to start a new thread, they still need to go to the bottom of the 50 comments to add a new comment. But that is not as bad as going to the end of 2000 comments.

  24. Ed says:

    It could be Klaus and Gates and Fauci are all just full of themselves and in fact have no master plan and nothing is going to happen. FF will grind downward. Conflict within and between nations will grow as no one is willing to accept a lower standard of living. Nations run by ancient despots who have declining cognitive ability will increasingly appear arbitrary, random, self destructive, insane. There is a saying in physics “revolutions in theory happen one funeral at a time”. Meaning it is not until the old generation that is stuck in the old world view dies that the community accepts the new idea.

    • I think that the master plan of Klaus, Gates and Fauci, to the extent it exists, is centered on “make as much money for oligarchs as possible.” They can also spin the plan as preventing climate change.

      You don’t need a conspiracy, if there is money to be made out of an arrangement.

    • Robert Firth says:

      “Nations run by ancient despots who have declining cognitive ability …”

      An excellent description of Emperor Biden.

      • Kowalainen says:

        Imagine handing Biden the keys to the Death Star.

        Now consider who is the guy with access to the Doom Button.

        😱

        • Ed says:

          The military makes its own decisions. Just because the president hits a button does not mean the generals will follow. Everyone is in it for their own gain. Killing the goose that lays the golden egg is not in the interest of the generals.

        • Bobby says:

          POTUS SOTUS is just a hokus pokus, revolving door Punch and Judy show anyway. It’s socially acceptable as long as most of the masses think they are or will be happy in the future.

  25. Ed says:

    I would like to see a small town maybe in NZ go in the opposite direction. That is, require all its residence to have had CV19 and require any visitor to have had CV19. If a virgin CV19er tries to enter they will be required to be jabbed with CV19. This will make the town free.

    • NomadicBeer says:

      I’ll buy into that!
      Have infection parties (like people used to have for their kids to get over the mild childhood diseases).
      Shake hands, hugs and kisses with infected people then get a 2 weeks vacation.

      One small problem though – many people are completely immune to covid. They don’t get symptoms and don’t even have the virus in their system. There was a study in Sweden where they found the virus in only 40% of the people that should have been infected.

      How to convince the government of a negative?

      • Unfortunately, in general, immunity to coronavirus infections is not very long-lasting. This is why people tend to get colds every year.

        In fact, for some diseases like Dengue Fever, having the illness once can make having a later, slightly different mutation worse. There was some evidence that the virus underlying the earlier SARS epidemic was of this type. The two viruses are closely related.

        • Duncan Idaho says:

          Dengue Fever has 4 variants, and a second infection of the same variant can be considerably worse.

          Not the case with Sars CV2.
          But it is one interesting virus.
          450,000+ Americans dead in a year.
          The US had 291,557 deaths in WW2, in 4.5 years.

          • NomadicBeer says:

            “450,000+ Americans dead”

            Where does this number comes from (other than propaganda?
            If you look at the excess deaths graph (https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate) you can see the number of deaths increased linearly for at least 10 years and there is no change in 2020.
            Note: I changed the dates to 2000-2021 but you can play with it.

            So it is your choice if you want to believe in magic deaths that don’t show up in statistics but please do not assume it is a fact.

            • NomadicBeer says:

              Can’t resist to give another link. This one is from 2017 where they extrapolate the US increase in deaths due to an aging population. Lmk if you see any difference with the actual graph.
              https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2017/10/aging-boomers-deaths.html

            • To Nomdic Beer, since there is no box there.

              This is an old forecast of the number of deaths by year. It is hard to tell how many deaths are forecast for 2020 from it. I would guess about 2.7 million.

              The CDC hasn’t released final death numbers for 2020, but on a rolling 12 month average, through October 2020, deaths are 3,165,000. The rolling 12 months averages have increased every month since the pandemic started. I would imagine that the annual deaths would be higher, perhaps 3.3 million.
              https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm

              It looks to me as if deaths were ahead of 2.7 million back in January, before the pandemic started.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Lockdown Sceptics cites ‘5000 additional deaths in 2020 vs 2019’…. this is without masks or lockdowns…

              5000 people in a country of 10M…. and most of them were no doubt already half dead.

              More evidence that Covid is cover for other agendas….

            • NomadicBeer says:

              Thanks Gail, I cannot find the article that compiled the provisional CDC data with the previous years to show that the increase in deaths per 1000 was in line with the previous decade.

              If I find it, I will post it here, you are the expert and I would like you to take a look.

              Not to mention the confounding variables (how many people died from the lockdowns?).

              A better analysis would be state by state, depending on how strict the lockdown was – how did Florida do compared to last year, for example?

              Maybe you can write an article about this sometimes (if it’s not too dangerous).

              Thanks,

            • It takes a while to get the actual deaths recorded into the data base. I understand that North Carolina is particularly slow, for example.

              You can look at deaths actually recorded, in total, or for a specific state, at this link. You may have to download state data. The latest weeks are missing a very lot of deaths.
              https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

      • jj says:

        False positives not a problem with PCR testing for entrance into your hamlet.

    • NASDAQ is very high. Mortgages delinquencies are only now starting to turn up. Other loan delinquencies are staying low (as long as governments are guaranteeing everything, and adding lots of debt).

      • The best part is many in the markets believe that stocks counterweight real estate and vice versa, i.e. complete full spectrum market crash deemed impossible..

        Well, soon unemployed lower middle class now renting $.5-7M plywood bungalows in Cali (+ the property further leveraged up on tech stock mania) can’t and won’t end well.. This smells not like mere -10, -30 or -50% correction but way bigger implosion..

        • MM says:

          I guess, when you bought BTC at 45000 you wil be very anxious when a 20% correction aka 40.000 will occur. The people that bought now I asume are not that cold blooded. So from 20% to 100% it is only a small step (80/20 rule…)

          • Robert Firth says:

            MM, a 20% correction from 45,000 takes you to 36,000.
            And if you bought with a 10% margin, you are now 4,500 under water.

  26. 10Y Swap spreads collapsing just like they did into the March ‘20 market collapse.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EuWS99jXAAAupJH?format=jpg&name=large

    • According to this website: https://www.thestreet.com/topic/47223/swaps.html

      A 10-year swap is a transaction between two so-called counterparties in which fixed and floating interest-rate payments on a notional amount of principal are exchanged over a specified term. One counterparty pays interest at a fixed rate and receives interest at a floating rate (typically three-month Libor). The other pays interest at the floating rate and receives the fixed-rate payment.

      Also,

      Swap spreads correlate closely with credit spreads.

      The collapsing swap spreads would seem to imply that many in the market believe that 10 year treasury rates are headed downward, so that the difference between 10-year and short term interest rates is much smaller. A small spread makes it hard for banks to earn money on lending. They tend to cut back on lending.

      The low 10-year interest rate would seem to go with lower oil prices and thus lower inflation. The market does not seem to view today’s high oil prices to be sustainable.

      • Robert Firth says:

        Gail, based on the information you cite, a “swap” is a zero sum game. Why would anybody play? The likelihood that the eventual loser can recoup the losses over a 10 year time shift seems negligible.

  27. Ulrich says:

    Thanks Gail,

    what if it all was this easy:

    Our rulers know what is coming since a long time. They are not stupid and get together in Davos once a year to find solutions.

    Since years they got to hear in Davos:
    1. Too many people
    2. We cannot run the world without fossil fuels
    3. More and more of the fossil fuels are consumed to make them available until there is nothing left

    Solutions and restrictions:

    We (the rulers) can’t tell the people the real problem. Nobody would agree for a simpler lifestyle – all want more

    The only way to make people agree to cutting back is fear, maybe something like a deadly virus, that makes everybody want to stay at home.

    That would stretch our supply of fossil fuels but it is not sufficient, we must also come down from 7.5 billion people very quickly. Maybe a virus could wipe out most of the old and sick people.

    If that is not enough we might need something like a pretend vaccine to wipe out another large part of the population. This time not the weak and vulnerable but the stupid ones who readily accept to get vaccinated.

    What will then be left of the global population will be those who are young and powerful, and also more intelligent than average – for a bright future.

    That is what Klaus Schwab told me in Davos after we had a few beers.

    • Wow! I doubt that a quote from a commenter on a website that this is what “Klaus Schwab told me in Davos after we had a few beers,” will carry a lot of weight in court. But I can believe it is likely true.

      I know that back when Savings and Loans institutions were failing in the 1986-1995 period, I was with a group of actuaries who met with government staffers about the problem. They understood a great deal more about the problem than ever was apparent from news stories. The issue was that with the government guaranteeing S&L deposits, there was an incentive to invest in very speculative investments because the depositors were not concerned about the possible failure of the S&L.

      I am sure that this is another hidden issue that exists now as well.

      • Robert Firth says:

        Gail, I well remember that period, because i was grateful after every news story that I had never invested in a Savings and Loan. The problem became called “moral hazard”; a rather stupid term, since the hazard was exploited only by the immoral. It was also called “privatising gains and socialising losses”.

        A mere thirty years ago, that was considered a bad thing. It is now the main occupation of the US financial system. We cannot say we weren’t warned.

    • Jarle says:

      “Maybe a virus could wipe out most of the old and sick people.”

      They did a poor job with Scam-19 then, in Norway the average age of those who have died with this virus is higher than the average age of all that died.

    • Robert Firth says:

      Ulrich, I know your post is satire, but it does hit the gold (as many satires have throughout history). The only way to preserve our civilisation while reducing energy use is to reduce the number of people using that energy. This is the predicament that is the root of most other human predicaments.

  28. jj says:

    Rockefeller foundation operation lockstep circa 2012

    “n 2012, the pandemic that the world had been anticipating for years finally hit. Unlike 2009’s H1N1, this new influenza strain — originating from wild geese — was extremely virulent and deadly. ”

    The lockstep scenario is pages 18 -25. Its pretty boring actually compared to the high bar of the current fear porn journalism standard. Seriously it reads like a really bad gumshoe novel. Not sure i can believe that dr evil is going to take over the world with writing that bad.

    https://www.nommeraadio.ee/meedia/pdf/RRS/Rockefeller%20Foundation.pdf

    • Thanks for posting this link. I think it was posted before, but I had not kept very good track of it.

      This is an image from Operation Lockstep that I found very alarming.
      https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Headlines-in-Lock-Step-Rockerfeller-Foundation-2010-1024×496.png

      The report was published in 2010. The first item on the chart is “Quarantine Retricts In-Person Contact; Cellular Networks Overloaded,” dated 2013. This really happened in 2020. With all of the kids learning from home, there was big demand for cheap computers and bandwidth. Kids in poor areas had a hard time accessing their lessons. I wonder if some of the problems we are seeing now are an indirect result of this problem.

    • MM says:

      Lockstep is a management solution to a problem solution fallacy.
      Managers have been trained by the John Hopklins Center for Dísease Control in several events from 2001 on. The “scenario” aka “simulation and simulacra” always goes like:
      “Manage the drama until vaccination is available”. Then the simulation stops.
      I have had some contacts with managers (cough) and they are very good at focussing on a single issue (higher stock price) but not manage a healthy corporation (aka civilization)
      Whatever they simualted, people at OWF know that the world is complex.
      Command and control is the current approach but is it sustainable (as Klausi would frame it ?)

  29. Fast Eddy says:

    James Allan, the Garrick Professor of Law at the University of Queensland, was in London recently to see his two children. He has now returned to Australia, where he and his wife are holed up in a quarantine hotel, but he has written an account for Lockdown Sceptics of his seven-week stay in our capital. We’ve filed it under our ever-growing “Around the World in 80 Lockdowns” section on the right-hand side. It’s a corker – one of the best postcards we’ve published so far.

    Prof Allan, who writes regularly for Spectator Australia, isn’t just a common-or-garden sceptic – he’s a raging sceptic. I know I occasionally pour scorn on Australians – not so much the descendants of convicts as the descendants of turnkeys, given how they’ve acquiesced to lockdowns – but that’s nothing compared to Prof Allan’s reaction to the supine compliance of Londoners.

    Here’s an extract.

    A few things struck me quite powerfully. The first was how eerily empty London was as we walked around each day. We wondered when the great city of London last looked so deserted – not during WWII’s Blitz, not during WWI or the Spanish Flu, not at any point going back at least to the 17th Century. And for what? For a virus that in no-lockdown Sweden has led to 5,000 excess deaths for the year. Tops. And that’s if you don’t correct for population growth or an ageing population. For a virus that has a fraction of a soupcon of the lethality of the Spanish Flu, and all that it has concentrated on the elderly and vulnerable (who one might think should be the overwhelming focus of concern and action).

    Next there was all the propaganda everywhere. The BT tower made me want to vomit – “Stay inside. Stay safe. Protect the NHS.” I always thought health services were there to protect citizens, not the other way round. (Leave aside that for someone like me who has lived and worked in a lot of countries the NHS product is one of the worst I’ve ever experienced, perhaps marginally better than the health service in my native Canada but miles worse than Australia’s, New Zealand’s, and even Hong Kong’s.) Meanwhile the orchestrated clapping was nauseating. Can you imagine our ancestors clapping for the Battle of Britain pilots? Or those pilots wanting this to be done?

    And let’s not forget all the posters on bus shelters, straight out of some authoritarian government’s propaganda handbook. “Look him in the eye and tell him you can’t work at home.” Or “won’t wear a mask”. Or “It’s not that serious a disease.” These slogans ran below a photo of some deathly ill looking chap with an oxygen mask.

    Again, leave aside the subtle manipulation here that is involved in showing photos of actors far below 83 years old, that being the median death age from Covid. It is also dishonest because it presents only one side of the equation. The young are being decimated not by the virus – for them it is less risky than the flu – but by the Government’s response to it. Same for many workers in the private sector – though not, obviously, politicians and bureaucrats who will come out of these lockdowns that they themselves imposed better off materially than they went in.

    Where are the bus shelter posters of students who’ve lost a year of their schooling, or the many tens of millions in the Third World who are now newly in poverty, or those who’ve lost businesses and family homes with the slogans “Look them in the eye and tell them these lockdowns were necessary”?

    I also noticed that defenders of Boris’s supposed libertarian instincts had less and less plausibility as time went on during my seven weeks in Britain. If Boris Johnson is a South Dakota or Florida Governor-type libertarian, with a whole-hearted commitment to civil liberties and freedom and a willingness to make tough decisions in their defence, then I’m a marsupial.

    Any backbone the Prime Minister had has been slowly dissolved away by his SAGE advisers, the panic-mongering press, and his Cabinet in his transmogrification into an invertebrate. Go back and read what he used to say about Remainers and see how much applies to him now.

    At any rate, I came away from a seven week trip into the home of “the scary new Covid variant” with a sense that in two generations Britain had gone from the people who stood up to, and defeated, Hitler to the people who largely cowered in their homes, masks in place, because their Government told them to do so. Because of a virus that over 99% of those who catch it would survive!

    More https://lockdownsceptics.org/a-postcard-from-london/

    • We are now convinced that the healthcare system can protect us from everything. In fact, we are willing to pay an increasing amount each year for this service.

    • MM says:

      Influenza: history, epidemiology, and speculation (1958)
      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1951634/

      Describes many experiments where it was tried to deliberately “infect” people with “spanish flu” type influenza.

      You guess it: It worked in 0 (zero) cases

    • HDUK says:

      https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2021/02/09/london-the-first-global-city-to-fail/
      Exactly how long this will take to unfold is moot. Governments – national and local – will no doubt borrow and print new currency into existence in an attempt to keep global cities like London alive. But faced with post-pandemic declining prosperity, migrants fleeing the cities will take with them the practical knowledge and skills required to maintain the cities’ life support systems. Initially, this will probably manifest as things not being fixed as quickly as they used to be. Later, things that have broken will not be fixed at all. Water will be left to flow from broken mains, street lamps will be abandoned and road surfaces returned to – or left to return to –gravel. And, of course, the more things fall apart, the greater the exodus from the city will become.

    • HDUK says:

      London isn’t the only failing City.

      https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2021/02/15/a-failure-of-complexity/

      The trouble is that the trends which have become apparent in the course of the last year predate SARS-CoV-2. Human faeces was piling up on the pavements in San Francisco several years ago, even as a plague of rats was gnawing its way through the computer and electric cables beneath the floors of plush Los Angeles office blocks. Victorian diseases like typhus were rife among America’s growing army of homeless people long before the salaried class developed the vapours in response to Covid. And in the Brexit/Trump voting wastelands beyond the city walls, collapse and decay had been a way of life for decades

      • Fast Eddy says:

        And then there are the most important words ever written — acknowledgement that the battle against the end of cheap to produce oil has been lost.

        This signals that BAU had become nonviable … that the Central Banks were pushing on a string…. out of ammo …

        And as we can see… they knew it was time to drop a nuclear bomb on the global economy … they have smashed BAU and left it with a feeble pulse… just enough to allow them to deploy The Extermination Plan (TEP).

        The Beginning of the End:

        “The global economy was facing the worst collapse since the second world war as coronavirus began to strike in March, well before the height of the crisis, according to the latest Brookings-FT tracking index.

        “The index comes as the IMF prepares to hold virtual spring meetings this week, when it will release forecasts showing the deepest contraction for the global economy since the 1930s great depression.

        https://www.ft.com/content/9ac5eb8e-4167-4a54-9b39-dab48c29ac6c

      • These cities represent failures of complexity, as the title implies. It is the failure of complexity that brings down whole civilizations. Not many people understand this, however.

        If there are plenty of cheap fossil fuels, then it isn’t necessary to resort to so much complexity.

    • Jarle says:

      “At any rate, I came away from a seven week trip into the home of “the scary new Covid variant” with a sense that in two generations Britain had gone from the people who stood up to, and defeated, Hitler to the people who largely cowered in their homes, masks in place, because their Government told them to do so. Because of a virus that over 99% of those who catch it would survive!”

      I would rather say the Russians defeated Hitler et al, the Brits mostly watched from a distance.

  30. Fast Eddy says:

    The CovIDIOTS who think they are going to be free to travel and that things will return to normal once everyone gets jabbed… will be sorely disappointed:

    Boris Johnson was accused of shifting the goalposts again on lockdown after he said that infection rates must fall to “really, really low” levels before restrictions could be lifted.

    The Prime Minister had previously said that the level of Covid deaths, vaccine rollout, new variants and pressure on hospital beds were the main determinants.

    Speaking at the Downing Street press conference, the PM said he said: “We want this lockdown to be the last. And we want progress to be cautious, but also irreversible.”

    And even as the number of new cases fell to its lowest level since early October, he warned that the easing of lockdown could be delayed if there is a resurgence.

    While he said he could not give a ‘cast-iron guarantee’ that this would be the final lockdown, he stressed his belief that science was “in the ascendancy”.

    Asked about his plans to lift restrictions on a visit to a vaccination clinic in south London yesterday, Mr Johnson told Sky News: “We will want to see those rates really, really low. Because the risk is if you have a large volume of circulation, if you’ve got loads of people, even young people, getting the disease a couple of things happen.

    “First you have a higher risk of new variants, of mutations. Secondly there will also be a greater risk of the disease spreading out into the older groups again.

    “No vaccination programme is 100 per cent effective, so when you have a large volume circulating, inevitably, the vulnerable will suffer. So that’s why we want to drive it right down, keep it right down.”

    Speaking about next Monday’s announcement of his ‘road map’ for relaxing lockdown measures, Mr Johnson added: “The dates we will be setting out will be the dates by which we hope we can do something at the earliest. It’s the target date.

    “If, because of the rate of infection, we have to delay for a little bit, we won’t hesitate.”

    https://lockdownsceptics.org/

    • Xabier says:

      In summary: a little carrot to encourage the silly donkey, but mostly stick.

      More lies from Johnson, to add to the tidal wave of them which we have been forced to endure here for the last year.

    • JMS says:

      According to Johnson’s dad (at 22:50) Uk’s carrying capacity is 10-15 M people. Therefore, get to work, my son, you have a lot to do. It’s in your hands to save growth, I mean, lives, to save lives.

      • Tim Groves says:

        And according to the Deagel forecast, the UK’s population in 2025 will be — you guessed it — 14 million.

        That sounds a lot leaner and meaner than the 66 million mostly slobs that languish there today. No wonder Stanley is turning French.

        What do Boris’s dad and Deagel know that we don’t?

    • Robert Firth says:

      A higher rate of infection does not correlate with a higher risk of mutation. The risk of mutation resides in the billions of viruses within each patient. More patients increase that risk to an imaginably small extent.

      Toss 10 coins. What is the risk that one coin will come up heads? Now have two people each toss 10 coins, and do the calculation again. See what I mean?

      OK, let’s do the math. Of 10 coins, only one need come up heads (“mutate”). The probability is 1023/1024. For 20 coins, it is 2047/2048, a difference of less than 0.05%.

  31. Tim Groves says:

    Tony Heller is on good form today talking about the Texas blackouts—over a million people without power as solar panels are covered in snow and wind turbines frozen stiff. And about what windmills do to birds. Lots of nice pictures too.

    – – – –

    I went to a talk at an Audubon bird rescue facility in Phoenix on January 13, 2019, and pressed them about wind farms killing thousands of eagles. They acknowledged it was true and provided some details, but said it was a tough trade off between “clean energy” and dead birds.

    I then asked why hunters go to jail for killing eagles, and wind farm operators don’t – and they of course blamed President Trump for choosing jobs over the environment. So I responded with “are you saying President Trump is promoting wind farms?” They quickly changed the subject.

    https://realclimatescience.com/2021/02/environmental-movement-hijacked/

    • I see this quote:

      “Nearly half of Texas’ installed wind power generation capacity has been offline because of frozen wind turbines in West Texas, according to Texas grid operators.”

      This doesn’t help the situation.

    • Duncan Idaho says:

      Tucker goes socialist
      https://digbysblog.net/2021/02/tucker-goes-socialist/

      An interesting view– not a place I’ve had a interest in, but it is a major player.

      • Ed says:

        Texas is threatening to succeed and magic coal and nuclear plants go off-line in the middle of a record cold spell. How many are employed in the federal governments spy and dirty works organizations? 800,000? If Texas wants to mess with “the big guy” they will have to up their game.

      • So, Texas’ power problem is really a problem involving several kinds of generation. Coal, natural gas, nuclear and perhaps wind. No solar at this time of year. Texas’ grid is an island, so it can’t import electricity from elsewhere.

        • Duncan Idaho says:

          hint:

          “The real problem is that the Texas electrical grid is working exactly as designed, by people who created a system where the occasional failure is a virtue. Because the profits are better that way.”

          • Ed says:

            In NY State the profit margin is much better on emergency repair than on maintenance spending. As set by the NY regulators.

            • Back when electricity was a “utility,” high enough rates were charged so that regular maintenance could be done. Now, the cheapest approach is used. This means letting parts operate until they fail outright. Keep very little inventory on hand for repairs. Don’t plan for any unneeded capacity, because that has a cost involved. Plan to keep electricity production operating 98% of the time, or some other percentage, significantly smaller than 100%. It is the last few percentage points that are the most costly. Let the customers deal with the outages.

      • Kowalainen says:

        It is funny how Marxism becomes en vogue among the conservative and libertarians once the cracks in IC widens and some unfortunate souls tumble into the abyss, splashing down the the ice cold sea of bitter reality.

        A predicament is a predicament. There is no escaping that, no political or new age yada-yada will get us out of the suck we brought upon ourselves. Only supersonic remedies can cure these ailments.

        • JMS says:

          To manage people and things in times of energy surplus and growth, liberal capitalism’s modus operandi proved to be a winner.
          But in times of scarcity and diminishing returns, totalitarian communism has clearly demonstrated that its methods are unsurpassed.
          IOW, when control can be obtained through persuasion: liberal capitalism. When control has to be exercised through intimidation and violence: totalitarian communism (slavery/serfdom in pre-modern times)

          • Kowalainen says:

            The common thing with these “ideologies” is that they suck and is completely redundant. Sort of like the perpetrators and lions share of the victims themselves.

            Yeah, right, the allure of pomp and regalia to feel “in control”, “special” of that which cannot yield to control. The intrinsic processes of the ecosystem, solar system and universe in extension.

            All extinct without exception. Not if, rather when. Apparently sooner than later seem the modus operandi. Ultimately, it won’t make one iota of difference.

            The wheel of time will simply grind away on the chaff. It simply doesn’t care about some rapacious primate hallucinations swirling about in the vacuum between the deaf ears and behind eyes blinded by the myopia of the ordinary.

            It is sort of like that dude commenting here a while ago, trying desperately to deny peak oil/finite resources, injecting hopium in himself by convincing others. I’d assume OxyContin works better for people who wants to feel better, at least for a short moment. Indeed, the high eventually wears off and left is the brutality of a predicament. Solution: MOAR!

            But hey, I wish they won’t disappoint me. I’m expecting nukes to fly. A worthy grande finale. 🚀💥☢️

            😳👍👍

    • Robert Firth says:

      Wind farms are sited where there is a good chance of wind. That is, in the path of the prevailing winds. Those same paths are the preferred routs for wild birds, both local and migratory. If you wanted to design a system that would turn as many birds as possible into bird choppings, you could do little better than to design wind farms. But it’s green, don’t you know? No: it is part of our ongoing and implacable destruction of Nature for our own benefit.

  32. MG says:

    The rising complexity and the falling energy per capita at the same time are the reason for the declining uniformity of the society. As the system implodes, the uniform communism or socialism can not react to the system reorganization. That is why the communist and socialist regimes collapsed in 1989 when the population of the given countries started to implode (the fertility rate fell under 2.1).

    Periodically, it can happen that the socialist parties win the elections, but the overall downwards trend favours the big tent parties, as the socialist parties are gradually becoming too rigid to compete with the desintegrating trends which can be better addressed by the parties consisting of various minority views, as the example of Japan and Germany confirms.

    That is also why the Republicans in the USA are disintegrating and suffering identity crisis, as the figure of Donald Trump represented. As the governments are weaker and weaker, the nationalist and socialist parties, which favour the state, are very prone to epic failures, as they can not keep control over the rising complexity and the declinig uniformity.

  33. James says:

    Dr. Fauci receives one-million dollar prize from Israel for being a champion of science. I think he approved most of the funding for the gain of function work on SARS-COV-2. Truly a champion. Job well done.

    https://www.nbcboston.com/news/national-international/fauci-wins-1-million-israeli-prize-for-lifetime-defending-science/2303242/

    https://f.hubspotusercontent10.net/hubfs/8079569/The%20FauciCOVID-19%20Dossier.pdf

  34. Fast Eddy says:

    Is there any way to hurry up The Extinction…

    https://cufpa.wordpress.com/2018/01/05/israelis-sniping-palestinian-children/

    • I visited Israel and Palestine in 2018. The population is growing too rapidly in both countries. There is not enough fresh water to go around. Israel treats the Palestinians very badly. It is a sad situation.

      • Minority Of One says:

        Israel’s population was just over 1 M in 1950. It is now almost 10 M:

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Israel#Future_projections

        “In 2017, the Central Bureau of Statistics projected that Israel’s population would rise to about 18 million by 2059, including 14.4 million Jews and 3.6 million Arabs.

        …Other forecasts project that Israel could have a population as high as 23 million, or even 36 million, by 2050…”

        • Xabier says:

          They need to cut deep (‘Ze Cut, ze deep Cut!!!’ Yes, yes; calm down, Uncle Klaus) like everyone else.

          • Minority Of One says:

            Writing of deep cuts, I wonder if nuclear power station employees get the option of an mRNA ‘vaccine’?

  35. Simon says:

    Finally, you make a claim that there is alack of understanding of how the eocnomy really works.

    Lack of understanding by whom?
    And if they don’t understand how it works, then can you please elaborate on how you think it works?

    You can’t make vague unsubstantiated claims like that. Your argument is flawed at best.

    • My talk I am working on will discuss how the economy really works, and what goes wrong to cause collapse.

      You are welcome to register if you like. I expect any questions will need to be submitted in writing. The moderator will choose which questions I should answer. If questions sound too unknowledgeable, they likely will not be selected.

      This is a link to where you can register.
      https://uncomfortableknowledge.com/webinar-where-energy-modeling-goes-wrong/

    • Minority Of One says:

      There are many very interesting and insightful posts on this website going back years, covering “How the economy really works”. Why don’t you read some of them, then come back to us with your own insights.

      The regulars here are genuinely interested in knowing why Gail, and the rest if us, have it all wrong, and you don’t.

      • Simon says:

        I did, and I read a few other articles, and I’m sorry to tell you that I wasn’t persuaded. The articles are a collage of hypotheses that don’t really connect all that well. I do agree that an economy needs cheap oil and that the economy is somehow grounded in material limits but the facts stop there.

        The hyperinflation and rising inequality we’ve witnessed have been as a result of fiat and exuberant class privilege, not diminishing returns. Again, I want to understand the author’s position, but they have not made an effort to clarify it.

        I appreciate a multi-disciplinary approach, but the author is breaching is trying to assert themselves in a field which they have little expertise or practical knowledge in.

        • Kowalainen says:

          Do you have a complete thermodynamic and game theoretical model of the world (energy economy) and wish to share some data from those supercomputer runs? If no, then you have to accept a few iron clad postulates and reason from those.

          Go read LTG for reference and accept the fact that infinite growth on a finite planet is a contradiction in terms.

          Fossil fuels is a finite resource and the low hanging fruits will be those that gets picked the first. There is a limit to how much investment/capital expenditure people want to put in to keep your deluded ass and sanctimony warm and cozy. Once certain thresholds is passed, the fossil fuel party, where everybody is invited, is over.

          Now, how much have you volunteered to cut down on your own frivolous consumption? Let me guess; not much, and now, oh yes, the Marxist wants to a seize capital from the owners, then proceed to inject large doses of hopium into those depleted oil fields, because large doses of delusion automagically cause them to be topped up by the hand of our infinite stupidity of an objective reality which simply just exist as a rather convenient hallucination between your ears.

          Look man, it’s over. Accept it and move on.

  36. Simon says:

    Also — peak oil was debunked a while ago!

    • Duncan Idaho says:

      Well, global peak happened in November 2018 (C+C).
      It is fast fading in the rear view mirror.

    • Minority Of One says:

      “Also — peak oil was debunked a while ago!”

      You accuse Gail of supplying insufficient evidence in her post, but provide none yourself?

      The facts of the matter suggest otherwise and the only person who seems to not know that is you.

      Please post your evidence.

      • Simon says:

        Here’s the funny thing about peak oil… the goal post date keeps being pushed back. Why is that? In ’04 they said it would be in ’08, then the forecast was pushed to 2015. ASPO said it would be in 2010. Hubert (the geologist who came up with the Peak Oil model in the 50s) was initially right, but shale changed all of that.

        Global oil reserves are only increasing. In ’15 they were 1700 bil barrels, they’ve grown by 350+ bil. (BP data) Technology improvement makes oil more accessible. There’s more oil underground than we know.

        We can argue all day, but at the end of the day… markets don’t care, and neither do oil companies. Investments are going up, and so will extraction. Oil is a necessity and that won’t change any time soon.

        • Kowalainen says:

          Look, if they squeeze the juice out of shale rock. Isn’t that a mark of desperation or what?

          Face it, the oil party is over.

        • JesseJames says:

          “but shale changed all of that.”
          Try making diesel out of shale.
          Our civilization is built on diesel.

          Do you even have a clue how fast shale oil wells deplete?

          Should we call you SimpleSimon or StupidSimon?

          • Simon says:

            Another ad hominem. All the armchair engineers really smashing me out here – you’re all doing great, keep up the good work.

            Ok, back to reality.

            Shale is so abundant its no longer non-conventional. The environmental harm isn’t great and rapidly improving tech is making it increasingly cheaper to extract. Furthermore, there is increasing exploration in maritime areas. Is no one here keeping up with developments?

            Oil will never deplete for practical purposes. We will have moved on to new energy sources by then.

            You’re all afraid of ghosts.

        • The problem is the price stays too low to actually extract the oil that we can see seems to be available.

          At $300 per barrel, we wouldn’t have a problem for a long time. At $50 or $60 per barrel, the price is way too low for producers. One of the big costs for oil producers, especially in exporting countries, is taxes.

          If the oil price isn’t high enough, there aren’t enough taxes to cover the many things the oil exporting country really needs. They use the taxes to subsidize imported food, for example. They also create projects that provide jobs for would be workers. Middle East oil exporters tend to have un-diversified economies, since they don’t have water to grow food, and they don’t have much other than oil and gas products that they can make.

          • Duncan Idaho says:

            Gail–
            Don’t hold you breath on passing Nov 2018——
            Just concerned about your health if you do.
            It could happen, but the odds are decreasing by the day, at any price.

            • I don’t think I have ever suggested that oil production will exceed November 18. What I am suggesting is that all of the fossil fuels go down at once. Renewables do practically nothing.

            • Simon says:

              I agree with that, renewables are a joke. The only way out is nuclear.

          • Simon says:

            Ok, so if the economy is self-organizing, what is there to worry about. According to your hypothesis, oil price drops, consumption drops, great… everything is back to equilibrium.

            I reiterate as I did in one of my replies, shale is becoming increasingly cheaper that low oil prices will not slow upstream at all. We live in an era of energy abundance.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Conventional oil peaked in 2005… the price of oil shot up to $147 in 2007 …. then shale (which has lost $300B+ to date) was brought online in a mad desperate scramble to ensure adequate supply…

          In 2019 shale peaked

          Shale boss says US has passed peak oil | Financial Times https://www.ft.com/content/320d09cb-8f51-4103-87d7-0dd164e1fd25

          Apres shale.. there is no deluge … there is nothing … that’s the end of the road for oil – and civilization.

          Soooo…. the people who run the world launched Plan D (for Desperado)…. they introduced a virus and used that as cover to reduce oil consumption giving them time to get us ready for the Final Act…. which involves killing all humans in a nice way… rather than allowing 8B of us to rip each others faces off in an uncontrolled collapse of civilization triggered by end of oil.

          I know in advance you will not agree nor even understand what I have posted above… and that’s a good thing…

          I am sure it is much better for your mental health that you believe in the mirage of massive seas of cheap oil … that will be replaced by seas of solar panels and wind farms… powering oceans of EVs…. with everyone living happily ever after…

          The PR Team has done an excellent job … as you gasp for your last bit of oxygen — you and nearly 8B others… will not suspect that the cause of all of this … is the end of oil…

          • Simon says:

            End of civilization? We do not live in a linear world. By the time oil and gas run out, we will have come up with cleaner energy means.

            I was listening, but then you put on the tin hat, and now I realize what sort of a forum I find myself in. Better get going before the UFOs come back!

            • nikoB says:

              At present the vast list of civilisation collapsing (taking to a less complex level) issues includes deforestation, soil erosion, ocean acidification, atmospheric warming, insect loss, massive species extinction, desertification, pollution, plastics, fresh water aquifer depletion, resource depletion, EROEI increasing relentlessly, sea ice loss, a blue water event which could create a phase change in climate very rapidly due to the loss of the albedo effect, infectious diseases getting more of a foothold, etc…. I could go on but you get the picture. The vast list of techological innovations coming on line including nuclear do not for the most part address any of these issues. Collapse is baked into the overshoot cake. We can only hope that it is slow rather than rapid.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Yes of course Simon ….. like I was saying … the PR Team is outstanding!

              But then how good to they have to be when they know that all it takes is a few headlines across the MSM and the MORE-ONS will believe exactly what they are told to believe.

    • Robert Firth says:

      “It would really help your argument to have a proper abstract and a proper conclusion — essay style, as well as references.”

      Physician, heal thyself. (Luke iv:23)

      • Simon says:

        Ok? The type of comment that really makes this blog look good!

        • Robert Firth says:

          Simon, a friendly word of advice, even though you don’t deserve it and probably won’t take it: when you are deep in a hole, stop digging.

          You might also want to note that the only person in this dialogue who has indeed provide the references you so arrogantly demanded is me. You have provided none. Hence the admonition from a man far, far wiser than I, which it seems you have chosen to ignore. At your peril, I fear.

          • Simon says:

            I didn’t ask you for references, you really didn’t say anything warranting discussion anyways. Keep quoting Jesus, I’ll leave my engine idling and not lose sleep over it. Peace.

  37. Simon says:

    Sorry, I’m not sure what your thesis is trying to reach at. You also didn’t really cite anything, so I can’t cross reference.

    How does increasing complexity (added to the system? which system?) provide diminishing returns to non-non-elite workers as goods and services as a portion of economic output? (what does that mean? are you trying to say they get lower wages? what are you trying to say here exactly?

    And what you’re trying to say is that because they can’t afford to consume more, the decreased demand for goods and services will cause a correlated decrease in demand for oil and other input commodities?

    It would really help your argument to have a proper abstract and a proper conclusion — essay style, as well as references.

    • There is a limit to what I can do in the format of a post.

      • Simon says:

        With all due respect, at least please answer my questions so I can understand. I want to understand and learn from what you are saying, but I couldn’t quite take away anything meaningful because I didn’t find the necessary support for it.

        • I am sorry, right now I don’t have time to explain more fully. I have many posts that you can read and learn from.

          I have a very small number of academic papers as well. Sorry, I don’t have a book.

          • Simon says:

            I understand I am I being critical, but hopefully it helps you streamline your argument. I also appreciate you not ignoring my commentary, but as I stated, I do find your arguments unconvincing and incoherent to an extent.

            In the words of Albert Einstein, “If you can’t explain it simply, you don’t understand it well enough.”

            • Kowalainen says:

              You are not critical, you delude yourself on the hopium of a better tomorrow that simply won’t materialize.

              Accept it and move on.

            • Simon says:

              What?? What does anything you said have anything to do with what I said? Attacking me personally is not proving anything…

            • Robert Firth says:

              Simon, Kowalainen is attacking you personally because, in your limited time here you have deliberately and repeatedly attacked others personally. If you can’t take it, don’t dish it out.
              And otherwise, go in peace.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Agreed… so what specifically is your question(s)?

          • Robert Firth says:

            Dear Gail, your apology is gracious, but I fear futile. I believe we have another disruptor in this forum, and confess I have very little idea how to deal with him. But I strongly suspect that feeding the troll only increases his appetite for unsupported assertion, arrogance, and insult.

            Meanwhile, let us all take a deep breath (me first) and continue with civil and evidence based discussion.

  38. Unvaccinated citizens’ names should be DISCLOSED, new proposal by Israeli PM suggests amid slowdown in immunization campaign

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has proposed a law that would allow the names of people who have not taken the vaccine to be sent to local authorities. The idea has raised concerns over possible privacy violations.

    The PM said that the proposed “quick legislation” would allow local authorities to “receive data” on those who have not been vaccinated yet. The aim is to “encourage them to be vaccinated and save lives,” Netanyahu explained at a cabinet meeting on Sunday.
    https://www.rt.com/news/515621-netanyahu-disclose-names-vaccination/

    • Bei Dawei says:

      How about, the unvaccinated should wear a slightly different style of hat?

      • Tim Groves says:

        How about yellow stars for the vaccinated and pink triangles for the unvaccinated? If you’re going to get systematic about it, best to go all the way.

        • rufustiresias999 says:

          I had the same idea but didn’t dare post it. Jokes about Shoah is almost taboo here in western Europe, and I agree with the respect that the Shoah victims deserve. That is why I find shocking thar an Israeli minister has the idea of making and publishing lists of people. Nazis made lists of people with the mention “jew”.

        • Robert Firth says:

          Tim, many a true word is spoken in jest. The targets of these measures are not the viruses, but the Orthodox Jews. The largely secular, deracinated (and therefore intolerant) Israeli government should tread very carefully.

          • FoolishFitz says:

            I fear you are correct there Robert.
            Don’t know if you have read this, but they could hardly be clearer.

            “Let’s imagine, in a Middle Eastern land far away, a man straps a bomb-rigged vest to his chest. He wanders into a seminary, where young men are gathered learning from the holy books. Or he enters a house of worship, where row upon row of men are praying devoutly. He might stop by a market, board a bus, or even mingle in the crowd of a wedding or a funeral. He closes his eyes and cries “God is Great!” The explosives detonate.

            This is what is happening every day across cities in Israel, except that the man is wearing a vest with ritual fringes, a black suit and hat, and the incendiary device is a cloud of invisible droplets laden with COVID-19.”

            That’s just the first two paragraphs. Talk about setting the tone.

            https://web.archive.org/web/20210215011422if_/https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-deradicalize-israel-s-covid-insurgents-before-they-incite-a-civil-war-1.9529626

    • Fast Eddy says:

      It’s obvious where this is all headed… everyone — including under 18’s — who are virtually 0 risk from Covid (100 or so have died out of 75M in the US… more die from the flu in a given year).

      With an experimental vaccine which is NOT even a vaccine — it is at best a treatment… so why give an unproved untested treatment to people are not at risk?

      The Elders have shown their hand…. they have all aces… yet the DelusiSTANIS insist on continuing with the game.

      Stay Safe pea brains.

      • Bei Dawei says:

        Wait a minute–the Elders have been giving the vaccine to their own people. Does this mean the vaccine is good or bad?

        • Tim Groves says:

          Their own people are very important people— bankers, businessmen and buccaneers on a spectacularly big scale—aristocrats by any other name. The experimental gene therapy injectables are going to the little people, but I’ve seen no evidence that the jabs have been given to their own people.

          • rufustiresias999 says:

            I think that bei dawei made the awful assertion that “their people” are the jews.

          • They jabbed first responders (police, fire dept., emergency nurses..) – so this question should be incorporated into greater scheme somehow.

            Either don’t care, or it at some suitable point enhances chaos vector, perhaps some just got placebos..

      • Xabier says:

        Exactly: from ‘Protect Granny!’ to ‘We have to stick this crap in everyone, absolutely everyone!’ in one year.

        With, in the UK , Tony Blair as vaccine ambassador – that alone tells one everything about this imposition and fraud.

        Those who still can’t see it, just don’t want to know -too unsettling for them.

  39. As I noted in my current post, I am giving a talk to a number of energy researchers. The talk will be at 10am Atlanta time, on February 23.

    There will be a 45 minute talk, followed by a 45 minute discussion.

    If any of you would like to register for the talk and attend, this is the link. I understand that there are 65 people (mostly from Europe) registered now.

    https://uncomfortableknowledge.com/news/
    https://uncomfortableknowledge.com/webinar-where-energy-modeling-goes-wrong/
    https://uib.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_2Y8Scu7LQMidTkCJAlSatg

    In fact, I am working on my presentation now. That is part of the reason I have not been as available for comments today.

    • Violet says:

      Hi Gail, will a video be available after the webinar?

      • I am hoping so. The originator of the Zoom conference can “record” a conference, I think by checking a box and perhaps paying a fee. I should check with Mario. I know that there are people who cannot easily see the conference. I don’t think researchers in Australia are being invited because of timing problems. I am afraid Zoom may be behind “the Great Firewall of China,” but I don’t really know at this time.

        • Violet says:

          I will keep an eye out for it, thank you!

        • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

          I went to the link you posted to register and it was very easy and since I’m on vacation, will be able to watch and participate.
          Hopefully. Many here will do the same👍❤️

    • Robert Firth says:

      Gail, your link did not work for me. It led me into a :Zoom” labyrinth of IT rubbish that ended in the usual incomprehensible error message and a dead end. It also asked me to download unverified and unverifiable software on my personal machine. Sorry, no deal.

      Nevertheless, you have my good wishes. Please post the talk on a website that does not seek to invade my privacy.

      • NomadicBeer says:

        FYI Robert and Gail, I was able to use the website above and register (they only need an email address).
        Hope you can find a way to register too.

        • I know I registered for an earlier conference, and it worked fine.

          They muted all of the attendees and asked for written questions. This way they didn’t need to worry about an intruder doing something really strange.

        • Robert Firth says:

          NomadicBeer, I consider asking for an email address when none is necessary to be a gross invasion of privacy.

          • Zoom links are distributed by email. This way the organizers know who is coming and about how many to expect.

            If you decide to parade naked in front of the camera, the organizers will know who to blame. They likely won’t unmute the audience; they will ask for written questions, so there likely won’t be a concern by the organizers of loud interruptions.

            I suppose you could worry about the email address being used for junk mail later. Keep a junk mailbox, if that is a concern.

  40. MSN news is reporting (via Bloomberg), Blackouts Cascade Beyond Texas in Deepening Power Crisis

    Blackouts trigged by frigid weather are spreading across the central U.S. and into Mexico as an energy crisis that’s already brought Texas’s power grid to its knees deepens.

    As more than 2 million homes in Texas are already without power, the operator of an grid spanning 14 states from North Dakota to Oklahoma ordered utilities to start rotating outages to protect the system from failing amid surging demand for electricity. The outages have also spread into Mexico.

    A picture is worth a thousand words regarding what goes wrong when an area is depending on too many renewables.

  41. Malcopian says:

    In Wales, Nationalism is growing, and its appeal is deep. I blame OFW’s ‘Mirror on the wall’ 🙁

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/15/britain-welsh-support-independence-nationalism-wales

    EXTRACTS:

    YesCymru’s latest polling with YouGov suggested 33% of Welsh people with a view would support independence. The Plaid Cymru leader said this was precisely where support for Scottish independence was just 10 years ago, which is now in a majority.

    Independence is the reduction, often to geographical absurdity, of group identity politics. Isolation is where the group goes when it sees no alternative, and when democracy permits it.

    Since devolution, the Welsh government’s handling of its health and education services has not shone. But nationalism does not care about such things. Its appeal is deep and psychological and lies in sovereignty alone. The Irish tried it and succeeded. The Scots seem likely to do likewise. That Wales should follow suit might seem fantastical to some. But who knows?

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      LOL I am happy if I have played some tiny part in the promotion of local and meaningful democracy across Britain. Independence for the one means independence for the other – and the more democracy the better.

      A new analysis of the most recent poll in Scotland reveals that those under 55 years old, on average, support independence. That suggests that the longer that the TP waits to approve Indy2, the more pro-UK voters that they are liable to lose and the more likely they are to lose it. The SNP might do well to set the date near to the end of the coming administration (so within 5 years) but they will be making all the pertinent ‘calculations’ – and some of their more eager supporters may push for an earlier date.

      > Four fascinating findings from the latest Scottish independence poll

      …. Across all age groups up to the 45-54-year-olds category, a healthy majority are in favour of independence.

      Once undecided voters are removed, support for independence is as follows according to the Savanta ComRes survey: 16-24: 72%; 25-34: 66%; 35-44: 65%; 45-54: 59%; 65+: 35%

      https://www.thenational.scot/news/19091861.four-fascinating-findings-latest-scottish-independence-poll/

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        … And so there is the danger that both sides will desire the timescale for the referendum that is demographically least favourable to their cause – the one because they want it and the other because they do not.

    • Robert Firth says:

      The Irish indeed tried it. The result was a year long civil war, accompanied by atrocities previously unseen, including the deliberate execution of prisoners of war on the battlefield. The bitterness that created remains to this day.

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        Thank goodness we have referendums to settle things democratically and peacefully these days. : )

        Independence is particularly popular among Scottish women and youngsters and I just know that no old blokes are threatening them on the internet.

  42. Yoshua says:

    Aleister Crowley was an ET experiencer?

    Crowley said he didn’t write”The Book of the Law” …an entity dictated it to him…he just put the ink on the paper.

    It’s a very strange script.

    https://www.sacred-texts.com/oto/engccxx.htm

    • Bei Dawei says:

      Now we have to unpack what is meant by “entity”, but…have you seen this?

      https://www.pinterest.nz/pin/502573639652819044/

      • Azure Kingfisher says:

        “From Theosophy to the Beat Generation or How even the Occult was Disguised,” by Miles Mathis:

        “The success of Theosophy seems to have encouraged military intelligence to create many offshoots and splinter groups, including the Golden Dawn, Thelema, OTO, the Church of Satan, the Process Church,
        and hundreds of others. Aleister Crowley is one of the easiest agents to expose, since the transparent absurdity of his entire biography starts at Trinity College, Cambridge, where he was recruited by the British secret service and traveled to Russia while still a student (1897). He was also connected to Footlights, the famous Dramatic Club at Cambridge, where he slept with the (male) President of the Club. This is apropos, since Crowley would be an actor all his life.”

        http://mileswmathis.com/beat.pdf

    • Robert Firth says:

      An entity whose bizarre forays into Ancient Egyptian were pretentious gibberish. And who clearly did not understand Pythagorean number mysticism. When I want to study an unreadable document I’ll stick with the Voynich manuscript. At least it has pretty pictures.

  43. Jimothy says:

    I much prefer this format, though I understand the drawbacks of the slowdown it causes some people (it’s been fine for me)

    • Scientists Are Trying to Spot New Viruses Before They Cause Pandemics
      Scientists want to build a weather system for viruses. It would require a big financial investment, plus buy-in from doctors, hospitals and blood banks.

      More boondoggles for the healthcare system.

      • Rodster says:

        And more complexities added to the already complex system.

      • Dennis L. says:

        Gail,

        Our experiences seem to shape our perceptions; yours are a bit negative on the healthcare system. In any large group the objective is to achieve a basic goal which is better than the alternative; not everyone will be on the same page or share the same goals internally – this leads to political intrigue from what I can see. A good leader herds the cats well.

        Modern medicine is incredible, it can be very expensive. I have seen the old way up close and personal, I have experienced the new way up close and personal, new is better and probably cheaper. It is also disruptive; certain surgical skills which take years to master are rendered obsolete as are the recovery areas and staff. Capital has replaced human skills, the modern physician not only has an MD degree but a PhD from MIT in engineering. Four modern “OR’s” have a turn time of 45 minutes/procedure with I expect a substantial electric bill and a entry cost of $188m.

        We have a healthcare system with many agendas, it works fairly well when it works.

        Dennis L.

        • NomadicBeer says:

          Dennis,
          I had a different experience than you. I saw a free healthcare system in a poor country where most diagnoses were made using conversations, a stethoscope and (rarely) a blood test.

          I also experienced the most expensive US health business (and I have great insurance).

          The US doctors never diagnosed correctly with all their high tech gadgets. They never asked questions treating the patient like a piece of equipment.
          After being misdiagnosed and made to suffer for a week in US, a half hour conversation with a family doctor in the poor country diagnosed and solved the problem.

          This is not just my experience. In US the doctors are drug peddlers for the big pharma. All the humanity have been trained out of them. I guess if you are superrich they will eventually figure out what the problem is and fix you.

          Looking at the future ahead, I prefer caring doctors using simple instruments than failed technicians that don’t know what to do when their machines stop working.

          OTOH, I agree about dentistry – there was a lot of progress in terms of materials and pain control. Of course most people would not need a dentist if they would eat human food (i.e. hunter gatherers) instead of industrially processed corn.

          • Dennis L. says:

            Interesting, point estimates on our parts, guesses on my part.

            Again, there will be variation, not all clinics will be skillful, not all practitioners will be the best, the trick is to find the best of both.

            One perspective is to have a system which at least allows the best to survive.

            Whatever worked for you, whatever works for an individual is the best treatment.

            Dennis L,

        • People earning $10 per hour can never truly afford today’s health care costs. This is a big part of the problem. Even dental costs get to be a serious problem for them.

          There is no good way to get today’s health care costs down. No one can say, “We will just forget we know about these medicines and procedures.”

          One thing the system can do to reduce costs is make Assisted Living so unattractive that no self-respecting senior would want to move in. With COVID, that has pretty much happened. Nursing homes take sicker elderly people than Assisted Living. Even this option is less attractive.

          • Dennis L. says:

            Gail,

            Some experience with people making less than $10/hour – it is called MA and also FQHC. The latter is not great, but it works well for the Amish. MA really covers a great deal of care, chose the right place and the providers will do a good job so when they walk off the floor they have earned their self respect, they did their job.

            The best dentists were never the most successful economically, but many patients who found the most successful dentists were buying something besides dental care, can’t speak for medicine.

            Always the optimist, use the health care system wisely, don’t abuse your body, chose your parents wisely and overall it is a pretty good system; I have been/was part of it from both sides.

            Made mention earlier of “Global Crisis.” Man, what a mess, people went crazy, life is still good.

            Dennis L.

          • Duncan Idaho says:

            Yep, universal coverage, like the rest of the First World, is the solution.
            Plus, it only costs half as much, and you get to live longer and have a lower infant mortality rate.
            Capitalism and health care have never worked out well.

  44. Iran studying various options on official digital currency: CBI chief

    Central Bank of Iran (CBI) Governor Abdolnasser Hemmati says the bank is considering various options on how it can issue an official digital currency amid a global race to modernize payments systems and reduce the risks related to privately issued cryptocurrencies.

    Hemmati said on his Instagram page on Sunday that experts at the CBI were working on laws and regulations needed to issue a digital currency in the country.

    He said the bank had already compiled a draft of “Iran’s Comprehensive Document on Cryptocurrency”.
    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2021/02/14/645257/Iran-official-cryptocurrency-CBI-Hemmati

    • Fast Eddy says:

      If all the CBs issue their own digital currencies… why would anyone need Bitcoin?

      Might the CBs not designate non-approved cc’s as ‘counterfeit’…. and imprison anyone who tried to trade using a cc…. and impose big fines on any business that accepted anything but official CB issued cc….

      We have seen that in the UK HSBC has refused to allow Bitcoin holders to convert their ccs into real money…

      This cc thing is a load of shit… it never made any sense and it makes even less sense now … I suspect it’s part of the mirage that the Elders and their minions have foisted upon the DelusiSTANIS… you can throw Tesla and the EV nonsense along with renewable energy into the mix….

      I see ccs as the ‘new gold’….many are buying because they can see out of control fiat money printing… and they have been hoodwinked into believing ccs will hold value when the SHTF…

      They of course believe there will be some sort of reset and that they’ll be able to use their ccs to buy up assets with it…

      They are of course clueless MORE-ONS… it would be priceless to be a fly on the wall when their delusion is shattered… that realization will come when the power goes off… permanently… and their ccs disappear into a black void of nothing…. and they sit their huddled in the dark … freezing .. and starving … and wondering WTF happened…

      Similarly amusing will be the moment the doomie preppers realize living with petrol and electricity… ain’t quite what they expected… in fact it just ain’t….

      Too bad the Trojan Horse Vaccine is gonna pre-empt all of these epiphanies…

      • MM says:

        When the central banks talk about digital currency because it is “better” than cash, they actually have already destroyed the “illusion of money” in the first place. I do not get it why they promote these? Maybe just to counter BTC? Sounds like stuck between a rock and a hard place..

      • Yorchichan says:

        I suspect that much like TOR, bitcoin was created by an American intelligence agency in order to create the illusion of trading anonymously. Sure, if you use both to order a bit of weed delivered to your door the agencies don’t care about you, but if you are a major dealer in drugs or weapons you will be closely monitored and taken down if deemed appropriate.

  45. “What If Bill Gates Disappeared?” – CREEPY Kids Video Praises Bill Gates as the Defender of the Earth’s Climate from Those Evil Fossil Fuels
    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/02/bill-gates-disappeared-creepy-kids-video-praises-bill-gates-defender-earths-climate-evil-fossil-fuels/

    • Dennis L. says:

      Finished “Scale,” West understands resource issues, last chapter of book.

      Started Geoffrey Parker’s “Global Crisis.” Basically 100 years of war during Maunder Minimuim – not unlike the sunspot cycle we are experiencing. It got really, really cold, crops failed, 1/3 of population perished for one reason or another. People seemed to have lost their minds, war for no reason, war for good reason, war for any reason, war with enemies, war with friends – a God awful mess.

      Some may have noticed it is cold this winter, even in Texas, check your utility rates, price is going up, up and away.

      Humility has a great deal to recommend it, catch a wave in software, be bright and think one is bright in many areas, maybe so, maybe not. My bet is sunspots beat a bit of pesky CO2 from man – the sun has mass on its side.

      Hmm, good time to go long natural gas, electricity, oil, firewood? If we are going local, what would be the local market for derivatives on firewood? Possible business niche? Could one heat their home with derivatives alone? Certainly a great deal of hot air, or is that a noncombustible metaphor?

      We are going to find out.

      Dennis L.

      • Possible surplus “biz niche” after (full / deep) collapse means it’s treasured and guarded very tightly. The NA has got advantage there vs Europe and Asia as the pop density will be even smaller then. The only issue for NA is the land bridge with the Central and South America.. But if you can set up living up up up there in rural Canada or Alaska I’d not worry about it much at least for few decades.. for young-ish people it’s the best bet available, the second best being “fortress” conservative rural southern states.. and by the way if you had no started like (half) decade ago not much chances anyway..

        But we (doom aficionados) could be very wrong again, and some techno-fix miracle saves the day either ~just now or after some shallow set back. For example Muskianas are now claiming .2TWh batt capacity per year, perhaps they could ramp it up (incl. outsourced suppliers) by factor of 10x, hence 2TWh of batts available per year, and this could be triage away from automobiles only. And that’s good enough to some sort of hybrid IC based mostly on natgas and renewables..

        Or completely other vectors could jump ahead..

    • If he disappears, his children get the money and spend like moguls.

  46. Dominic Raab says ‘vaccine passports’ COULD be needed to get into pubs or supermarkets in the UK despite the government insisting they will only be used for foreign travel

    Asked if proof of jab could be needed to go into supermarket, said not ‘ruled out’
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9259043/Dominic-Raab-says-vaccine-passports-used-inside-UK.html

  47. Vaccine refusers will be kept to ‘supermarkets, pharmacies’ when Israel opens up

    The Health Ministry is reportedly planning to clamp down on Israelis who refuse to vaccinate against the coronavirus and impose severe sanctions on businesses that accept unvaccinated customers and on individuals who forge a document that says they have been vaccinated.

    According to a Channel 12 news report Thursday night, Health Minister Yuli Edelstein wants to encourage widespread vaccination by offering advantages to those who take the shot, and also by limiting the options of those who don’t.
    “Whoever doesn’t vaccinate will only go out to supermarkets or pharmacies, while the vaccinated will go to stadiums and gyms,” Edelstein was quoted as saying.
    https://www.timesofisrael.com/government-plans-to-punish-businesses-that-serve-unvaccinated-customers-report/

    • Rodster says:

      Coming to a Nation near you !

    • JMS says:

      Supermarkets would be fine to me, and i even do without the pharmacies.
      So i gladly take it (the restriction, not the pseudo-vax)

      • Don’t give them any ideas..

        In any case this is likely sequenced long term game so the push will come later anyway, “supermarkets and pharmacies” opened for you but inside cordoned regional perimeter or special camp for refusniks etc.

        • JMS says:

          I’m not so sure this is a long term game. I believe there is a sense of urgency in the measures taken in the past year. Slowing down the speed of current transformation would mean losing momentum and to risk losing everything. Besides, i am sure our Dear Leaders are well aware of Machiavelli’s recommendation: “When doing evil, do it all at once.”

          • Artleads says:

            ++++++++

          • Xabier says:

            I’d tend to agree with that, JMS, they have to maintain the momentum – to relax it could be fatal to their great transformation plan.

            The propaganda and the imposition of changes will be relentless, until they have hammered us, willing or not, into the new shape they desire.

            There is one consolation: which is when they are done with the lies and killing, and imagine that they have triumphed, they too will be overtaken by the inevitable collapse.

            • I’d agree but we also have to allow for various sub-scenarios such as aborted attempt for whatever reason (not ready). Another one, perhaps it was all just about “calibrating” in the sense of measuring the reaction on many fronts with the desire for tweaking policy (to precision model) in the following further steps..

            • JMS says:

              The scale and degree of coordination of this Event seems too vast for a rehearsal or a mere step forward.To me, this feels not like a step, but as a leap of maoist proportions. I would venture the testing phase took place in the twenty years prior to 2020, with its highlights in New York, London, Madrid (coincidentally on the same day, March 11, which WHO choose to decree terror pandemic in 2020), Boston and Paris-Nice. In that department, i would say everything was already in place on Dec 31, 2019.
              But who can know for sure? Not me!

            • Tim Groves says:

              This would have been gamed and modeled in great detail by a gigantic AI that the elite are relying on to do their bidding in line with the program they fed it. But gigantic AI’s may have other priorities than doing anyone’s bidding.

            • Xabier says:

              I noted an interesting comment under a Youtube video, from an Iranian, saying that he recognised the basic strategy behind COVID measures as it reminded him of Islamisation in Iran after the Revolution, and the reversal and abolition of Western liberalisation and dress.

              So few in the West seem able to recognize a totalitarian coup when it is actually in operation, despite all those films about Hitler & Co.

              Too many explosions, I suppose, and not enough of the real politics?

              But maybe this is just human nature: the bigger the lie, the less it is comprehended.

              Sci-fi films seem to have primed people better for our emerging reality, in some respects; but they mostly show the awful Dystopia/Matrix after it has been imposed and settled, when only desperate rebellion is left as an option.

            • Jarle says:

              Xabier:

              “Sci-fi films seem to have primed people better for our emerging reality, in some respects; but they mostly show the awful Dystopia/Matrix after it has been imposed and settled, when only desperate rebellion is left as an option.”

              Real rebels don’t wail till after …

    • All is Dust says:

      More under-capacity venues then… good luck making a profit…

    • jj says:

      Id be perfectly content to be able to buy cat food in sector 9.

      • Duncan Idaho says:

        So you also like skateboarding?
        I still have recovering colors on my body.
        Go for surfing– there is nothing like the green room.

Comments are closed.