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History back to 1820 gives hints regarding what may follow
With the recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, many expect oil prices to spike and stay high. Instead, they have barely budged. The latest spike in prices is a mini spike. If these oil prices were adjusted for inflation, the spikes in the past would appear even higher.
This is not a new problem. Looking at energy data going back to 1820, low demand (affordability) has repeatedly produced financial crashes, wars, and collapses. We appear to be entering another such period.
In this post, I examine differences in how the economy behaves, comparing two different types of periods: those with low energy affordability (“low demand”) and those with high energy affordably (“high demand”). I also offer my view on what this analysis suggests may be ahead for the world economy.
[1] How high demand differs from low demand
High demand looks like a situation in which, each year, an increasing number of people can afford cars and the fuel that they require. With high demand, the number of new cars sold each year tends to rise. Young people are eager to buy homes because they find homes affordable. They find their incomes relatively higher than their parents’ were at their age. Countries around the world find it easy to industrialize. This allows their citizens to have better lifestyles. As we will see later in this post, the periods of the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s were periods of high growth in demand for oil products.
What we have now is the opposite: too many young people who cannot find jobs that pay well, even with advanced degrees. They cannot afford to go on a vacation or buy a new car. Record numbers live with their parents after they finish their schooling. They spend their spare time playing video games, rather than socializing with their friends.
The number of cars sold worldwide hit a peak in 2017, indicating indirectly that people are getting poorer. If people are not buying as many cars, demand for oil tends to fall, especially if more of the cars that are sold are electric.
Building new homes also takes oil. According to the US Census Bureau, the number of US new homes sold in the US hit a record of 1,283,000 in 2005. In 2025, the number of US new homes sold amounted to only 678,000, or about 53% of the peak amount. The huge drop in new home construction is a sign that people, quite often young people, are not as well off financially as they were years ago. They cannot afford to buy a new (or even a used) home anymore.
One study based on income tax data revealed that between 1948 and 1970, US incomes tended to rise faster than inflation. Between 1968 and 1983, the incomes of both the top 10% and the lower 90% rose as fast as inflation. However, between 1983 and 2012, the top 10% received far greater increases than the bottom 90% (Figure 2).
If workers in the bottom 90% of the distribution are not doing well, it is difficult to keep prices of commodities as high as those producing the commodities would prefer. Purchases of commodities, including food, and fuel for vehicles, do not rise proportionately with huge incomes. Elon Musk and other very high-income individuals do not spend all day eating or driving their vehicles. The bottom 90% must prosper for demand (affordability) of oil and other commodities to stay high.
[2] What experience with high and low growth in energy supplies since 1820 teaches us.
Several years ago, I prepared an analysis of how the world economy behaved over the long term, over the period from 1820 to 2017. I have recently updated this study. I found that the economy behaved quite well in times of high energy consumption growth. In times of low energy consumption growth, there seemed to be many adverse events, such as financial crashes, wars, and government collapses.
I am afraid that with today’s oil and debt problems, we are headed into a pattern of low energy consumption growth, or even energy consumption contraction. If this is the case, we should expect outcomes at least as undesirable those experienced during past periods of low energy consumption growth in the past.
(a) Methodology
I first prepared a new data set by combining two data sets, the earlier of which was available only every 10 years, with more recent data available more frequently. The energy quantities reported were rising rapidly. To analyze how fast they were rising, I first computed the average annual increase percentage for each 10-year period, as shown on Figure 3.
For example, the period from 1961 to 1970 (shown as the 1970 bar) had a very high annual rate of growth rate for energy consumption. This was the period when many of the interstate highways in the US were opened and many pipelines were added.
On Figure 4, I divided the bars shown on Figure 3 into two parts.
On Figure 5, the blue portions of the bars represent the average annual increase in population over the 10-year period. The red portion of the bar is computed by subtraction from the total. It is the amount that seems to be left over for a rising standard of living. Having a tall red portion of the bar would be very good; having little or no red bar left would represent a problem. Note that in two periods (the one ended 1860 and the one ended 2000), the amount left over for an increase in living standards was negative.
(b) Good things happened in years with very high growth in “Living Standards”
Figure 5 shows the information on Figure 4 as an area chart.
While I don’t show oil prices on Figure 5, those who are familiar with oil prices will remember that high oil prices were a feature of the 1973 to 1981 period. Also, as China began its growth period, another spike in oil prices took place. High growth in energy supplies and high oil prices seem to go together. High demand from a growing economy tends to hold prices up.
The label “China” refers to the rapid growth that took place in the decade after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. This was mostly powered by China’s huge growth in coal supply between 2002 and 2011 (Figure 6).
China and the world experienced another spurt of increased coal production starting in 2022, when coal prices temporarily spiked to a high level, perhaps indirectly related to the conflict in Ukraine. But coal prices have gradually come back down, resulting in flat world growth in coal production since 2023, and a plateau in China’s coal production growth.
(c) Troubled Periods took place when the growth in “Living Standards” was low or negative
Figure 7 labels three periods with very severe dips in “Living Standards.”
The First Troubled Period started with the Panic of 1857, which some consider to be a cause of the US Civil War. According to this view, the collapse was related to an over-expansion of the US economy, followed by the collapse of the debt bubble that had allowed this expansion to occur. Financial problems affected both the North and the South.
As I see the situation, one part of this financial problem was the declining profitability of slave labor. In the US South, the labor of slaves was the main source of energy used to operate plantations. An underlying issue was that the soil had gradually become depleted because of many years of growing of cotton and tobacco. These slaves had been purchased with debt; this debt could not be repaid with interest unless the income of the plantations was sufficiently high. However, poor harvests were not offset by sufficiently higher prices, which led to financial problems for plantation owners.
There may also have been an issue that the population, in general, was becoming poorer, essentially because of overpopulation. I say this because studies show that the height of army recruits had fallen, suggesting poorer nutrition. Sanitation had recently been improved, allowing a larger share of babies to survive to maturity. At the same time, immigration into the US continued. With overpopulation, it was difficult to keep incomes up. If farms were divided among many sons, farm sizes would tend to become smaller, leading to lower farm incomes. There would also be greater competition for factory jobs, tending to hold wages down.
Of course, when the Confederacy lost the war, the Confederate Dollar became worthless. For some, this added another financial crisis.
The Second Troubled Period was 1920 to 1940. This is a notoriously bad period, with the Great Depression and World War II included. Arguably, World War I should also be included. Commodity prices of all kinds fell very low. Tariffs were added in the 1920s. The problems seem to have arisen at the time Peak Coal hit–prices could not rise high enough to cover the cost of extracting coal from narrower and deeper seams. In my view, World War I began at the time of Peak Coal in the UK, and World War II took place at the time of Peak Hard Coal in Germany.
With depletion, the cost of extracting coal kept rising, but the sales price of coal would not rise to compensate for the higher extraction costs. Instead, wages of miners were increasingly squeezed. Strikes and lockouts became common. Taking a job as a soldier seemed like a reasonable alternative.
There were many events from this period that most people would like to forget, including the currency hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic between 1921 and 1923 and the Holocaust from 1933 and 1945. Country lines were redrawn. Some countries disappeared, and new ones were added. Those holding currencies of countries that disappeared were likely left without funds.
The Third Troubled Period was 1990 to 2000.
A major event of the Third Troubled Period was the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union, leaving the 15 republics as independent states. The collapse also indirectly affected Cuba, North Korea, and some countries in Eastern Europe that were not part of the 15 independent states. With this change, the demand for fuel of all kinds fell in the countries affected. Factories were closed in many areas, including Ukraine, which was part of the Soviet Union.
The pullback in demand from the collapse of the Soviet Union helped hold oil prices down in the 1991 to 2001 period. Oil prices had previously been brought down by the spike in interest rates in the 1980-1981 period. In my opinion, these low oil prices played a major part in the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union, as an oil exporter, needed higher oil prices to invest in developing new fields. In my opinion, the impact of the collapse of the government of the Soviet Union kept world demand (and oil prices) low during the 1991 to 2000 period.
The collapse of the Japanese real estate bubble also took place in this period, as did the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. Low growth in the world economy, indirectly related to the collapse of the Soviet Union, may have played a role in these financial events.
[3] The world’s self-organizing and self-healing economy
From a physics perspective, all economies are dissipative structures. Other examples of dissipative structures include ecosystems in general, all plants and animals, including humans, and hurricanes. One characteristic of dissipative structures is that, at some point in their lives, they tend to grow. Another is that if there is an injury, within a range, the systems tend to be self-healing. For example, a cut on a person’s arm will tend to heal; a hurricane going over land will temporarily lose much of its force, but it may increase in force again if it returns over warm water.
Another characteristic of dissipative structures is that they are dependent on having a sufficient energy supply of the right kinds to continue their existence. For humans, the energy supply is food; for an economy, it is a combination of many kinds of energy needed to match the built infrastructure of the economy.
All dissipative structures have finite lifetimes. Ecosystems often come to an end through fires. Humans generally do not live more than 80 or 100 years. Economies also tend to come to an end, either by losing a war or by the collapse of a central government, related to debt problems. The collapse of the Soviet Union involved a debt problem, among other issues. Figure 9 shows the huge drop in demand for energy of all types as its central government collapsed.
There is more stability of dissipative structures than a person might expect. Economists talk about an Invisible Hand being involved. Researchers examining dissipative structures talk about them being “self-organizing.” For example, if a fire or a change in climate causes a forest to collapse, it does not take many years for the forest to refill with suitable plants and animals for the somewhat changed situation. If a business or government fails, new, somewhat different businesses or governments are likely to take their place.
I would argue that if the Universe is constantly expanding (so it is an “open system,” rather than a “closed system”), what appear to be self-organizing systems may, in fact, be God-organized systems. In other words, instead of creation being a one-time event in the distant past, some type of literal higher power may be involved in a way that makes creation more or less an ongoing event. A person might wonder with the strange confluence of recent events, including the strange weather patterns associated with El Nino, whether today’s humans are being warned that a major change in economies will take place soon.
[4] What kinds of things may happen in the near future?
(a) Current disturbances in the Middle East and elsewhere are raising long-distance shipping costs for both food and oil. (See this video.) Normally, the price of food and oil must be high enough to satisfy producers and at the same time be low enough to satisfy customers. But now a new layer of costs has been added: the cost of shipping longer routes.
I would argue that because of the problem with low demand (affordability) by consumers, shipping costs must be paid almost entirely through a reduced net oil price available to oil producers and reduced net food prices available to farmers. The amount that consumers can afford doesn’t increase because of higher transportation costs.
(b) Furthermore, the use of extra oil for transportation of oil and food will tend to push the overall economy toward contraction because there will be less oil available for other uses, such as to power agricultural machinery and jet airplanes. If the overall economy begins to contract, we can expect dips in oil prices similar to those in 2008 and 2020 (Figure 1). But if recession persists, low oil prices will not reverse themselves as quickly as they did earlier.
(c) I expect home and farm prices will tend to fall around the world. This is related to the low level of demand (affordability problem) in the US and elsewhere. Figure 11, showing median US asking prices for homes, suggests that home prices have been barely holding their own for quite a while. A decrease would not be surprising with all the pressure the economy is now encountering.
Farm prices are likely to be under pressure as well, because of the difficulty farmers are having obtaining adequate income from their farms. If farm and home prices fall, there is a substantial chance that the debt bubble holding up these prices will collapse.
(d) There are many other debt bubbles that seem to be waiting to collapse. Some of the debt relating to AI seems to be in a bubble. There is considerable commercial real estate whose value seems to be being held up by “extend and pretend” loans. Collapsing debt bubbles tend to lead to collapsing banks. They also tend to lead to banks less willing to make new loans. Layoffs seem likely. All these things point to a major recession ahead, with less buying power for the population.
(f) Collapses of some top levels of government, similar to the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union, may be ahead. Such collapses can greatly reduce world energy consumption, including oil, with relatively little violence.
[5] How the nature of the economy may help over the long term
As noted previously, economies seem to have self-healing properties. Troubled periods can last for many years, but there seems to be a substantial chance that a way out will eventually be found.
If a government fails because of excessive debt, a new government (or governments) is likely to take its place. The new government will likely have fewer employees and offer fewer services to citizens. Pensions will likely need to be reduced or eliminated completely.
Even if governments fail, or national boundaries are redrawn, I expect that some businesses will continue operations. Such a situation will take place even if a new currency needs to be created to make this happen. Even in a troubled period, new businesses will start operations. Some of these businesses will make use of recycled materials available from failing businesses.
According to the Maximum Power Principle, if there are resources available that can easily be used, somehow, some organization will develop a way to use them. Over the long term, the economy will likely re-organize itself in a way that is more complex and more sparing in energy use. If energy use is efficient enough, it seems likely that a higher price for that energy supply could be made affordable to consumers. But, such a transition may take many years, if it is possible at all.
There were questions even before. The Aramco stock offering way back when. The reserve numbers. If you have a oil money machine why borrow? But they did.
Saudi has a pretty good tab going and revenue just dropped to zero.
I think it happens quickly. If you don’t have income you don’t have credit.
Can Saudi still float Pakistans debt to China?
Well of course. It’s SAUDI. Things change. Saudi borrowing is far from a slam dunk now IMO. It’s not just the oil buyers that MUST get the pipeline back on line.
They can thin out the oil and get it working without the pumping station just replacing pipe. It’s a pretty desperate patch. Certainly pumping stations will be better defended in the future with EW and other methods. Next time it might only be pipe.
Would you lend to house of Saud? How many points? That 8 billion they tried to float last week will cost more now. There’s always the IMF. Right?
Show me the lending model where Saudi revenue drops by 80 percent let alone 100percent and you continue to lend. Anyway you crunch it it will cost more once existing lines of credit are maxed.
At some point Saudi must replace revenue with more debt.
https://www.outlookindia.com/international/when-oil-wealth-meets-a-war-bill-saudi-arabias-debt-dilemma
Debt is a way of supporting additional demand in a way that pulls the economy forward. Of course, if future oil supply is lower, the debt is likely to lead to a large crash. Building for things like a huge tourist industry probably doesn’t make sense.
Something new is being planned to replace a dying system based on technology so after the crash we will see the new fairer system but with no pensions or free money.
Everything will be tokenized so will be for sale such as your house or parts of it.
@Adonis. I too cannot shake this nagging feeling that the governments will be searching for a stealth mechanism to tokenize all things, starting with your house. In a way, it will be like offering you an automatic home equity line of credit, which you think might be a good idea because it will allow you to borrow without all the hassles of having to deal with a bank. But lo and behold, what you thought was your collateral will be the governments collateral in the form of “tokens” but which is a thin disguise for the governments’ new found ability to borrow against this vast new found “wealth” as tokens on its ledger. CBDCs and digitalization on the block chain, and even control of the DTCC (Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation). All assets will be tokenized and used as collateral to print a new form of currency payment system. Clear as mud, right? It’s deliberate.
But once they get all the trillions in collateral tokenized, then in the fog of debt, the government(s) will suddenly be able to spend, and control, everything based on all the collateral it has suddenly created out of thin air. Kind of sounds like a new FED that at one time created dollars out of thin air and loaned them to the government at interest, only this time it will be tokens. Digitalization of your ID, health records, income, expenditures, travel, etc and your tokens will allow government’s total control.
Will it work? I don’t know. But the thought had crossed my mind.
https://milesharris.substack.com/p/the-financial-system-wants-the-equity?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=5714111&post_id=215344469&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=16win7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Hie Hubbs everything will be tokenized housing, food products such as tea and coffee and cash will disappear not because it is banned but because if you want to buy something you have to buy it as a token on a blockchain,this big change will probably happen after a massive breakdown in our JIT systems which could be the result of a lack of diesel , I believe it is very close thats why stocking up on years of food supplies is a good idea there will be no angry mobs knocking on your door they will be too busy using the new system to purchase food .
Will remittance to India for the Indian labor force in KSA decline?
To be exact, most of that labor is bangla deshi, because they are muslim. Indian muslims are also present of course.
If KSA is pumping less oil, if won’t need as many workers, from Bangladesh or India or anywhere else.
The workers and the camels will be the new pipeline, lugging oil across the desert.
Saudi has well over half T of debt in its version of bonds alone. The reason why the pipeline was critical is higher oil prices has been buffering the reduced production in revenue reduction. Now that doesn’t matter. The yanbu pipeline is critical to Saudi financial health. Point EW can protect the pumping stations but not the pipe itself. How can Saudi prosecute a war in Yemen when it is now open season on the pipeline? Any strike they execute with their airforce is likely to be met with further attacks? If obvious targets that their air force could paste are hit the pipeline gets hit again and revenue goes to zero. There is zero contingency for zero revenue in Saudi financial plans. They operate with a deficit even prior to war. They spend about a trillion and a half a year. They have 30 billion in reserves.
You do the math. Days not weeks that the pipeline is down is critical and that doesn’t include cost rebuilding the pipeline and other infrastructure that was just destroyed.
With Hormuz closed the pipeline is the cou d grace for Saudi.
A financial failure of Saudi would not be good for the world financial system. That won’t stop the sharks from starting to short things like big Saudi banks. if it goes that way.
IMO Saudi eats crow now. No offensive air response in Yemen. They can not prosecute this war against either Iran or Yemen without radically deviating from their financial planning. Their bonds are arraignment where there is a tie to collateral aka oil reserves. They have already used their oil reserves as collateral to a unknown extent. That depends if you believe their reserve numbers. The alternative is.a rapid increase of their debt if the pipeline continues to be hit and Hormuz is closed and further scrutiny of reserve numbers and when and if they get turned into revenue. Someone has to have the ability to extend that debt. A trillion and a half annually. Who is that?.The pipeline being hit changes everything.
This is what Iran making good on their promise if our oil doesn’t move no one oil moves means.
Two outcomes. Iran becomes the dominant nation in the region and oil flows. The whole world takes a fall. I take no joy in that analysis . Yes Saudi becoming insolvent would have a consequence or two. IMO nuclear weapon deployment can not change these outcomes only accelerate the latter. The easy west pipeline buys time. Time is very important right now. Getting that pipeline operating is critical. God help us if it stays down. God help us if all the infrastructure is destroyed.
Russian roulette with hand grenades.
https://spa.gov.sa/en/N2370557
If KSA has to sell its 5% of the NYSE might that start the “correction”?
It is hard to believe that the NYSE will be as high a year from now, as it is now, wether or not KSA sells it 5%.
If they sell tomorrow they may have a bit of company.
70 Million barrels of Iranian crude/condensate has been destocked over the past 5 months as independent Chinese refiners are running short on barrels!
Yet another of the world’s inventory buffers has now been depleted, while a historic global crude oil under-supply persists. 🛢💰
https://x.com/WhiteTundraSG/status/2099196104512553172/photo/1
The graph does look worrying! Iran has been able to ship less oil to China, so inventory on the water is lower.
Bessent says if China gets ASI first the US is doomed. Sanders says 20 years in jail if you try to make ASI. Deepseek say 20 years from now for AGI and 40 years for ASI. DS says we do not even have AGI. Current AI lacks reliable long term agency, grounded causal understanding and continuous self-directed learning.
We run out of materials to keep the Internet going. Without these, all forms of AI disappear.
And that is why I keep coming back to this Blog – for a dosage of sober, well-articulated objective thinking…
Just wish there was a way to permanently hide/block MG, edpell3, Agamemnon, ITMD and other dignitaries posts, not to waste valuable time/effort on that incoherent nonsense…
I would rather not cut off very many comments by commenters. They often have insights I wouldn’t think of. And even if commenters are wrong, it gives me a chance to explain why.
From the 17thc on the worth of what others say:
‘The worst speak something good;
If all want sense,
God takes a text
And preacheth Patience.’
George Herbert
I wonder how long the tankers Iran hits are down. Are they able to limp into Karachi shipyards on their own power get a patch and go on their way? With the rates Ravi outlined light UAV damage might be overhead like barnacles. My perspective has been Iran has chosen to use light UAV not something like Shahed with a over 100lb payload. We saw what that does to tankers in sea of azov. Bridge is heavily damaged ship is adrift.
The US strikes on Iranian tankers were far from love taps. If Iran uses heavy winged UAVs it may change the equation encouraging running the south passage gauntlet.
Iran may not want to risk further damaging eco systems with a large oil spill. The tanker the US sank the Kylo was empty. Tankers leaving gulf will be full. While there has been significant oil spills from the war no exxon valdez type events. This may be partially why Iran targeted the pipeline rather than tanker tit for tat.. Environmental damage on land and in Saudi. Based on behavior observed I don’t think any amount of prodding will make Iran sink a fully laden tanker. They will target land based infrastructure in tit for tat. That’s why tankers will run gauntlet. The environmental hazard of their cargo is a deterent.
Normally a large oil spill would be a large concern for insurance. Any ship running the gauntlet is uninsured and liability for any spill undefined like the first Iraq war.
The equation just changed. Iran does not like or want tanker tit for tat so they are asserting regional dominance instead. Land based infrastructure destruction is no longer taboo. Irans use of proxy forces is a laughable paper thin veneer.
Does all the infrastructure of the gulf get destroyed after the midterms? No need for costly blockades then.. Destroying khargh Island loading pretty much does the same thing. Buying instead of renting.
Will a region be accepted where Iran consolidates power every month? Or will all the chips be knocked off the table instead? What do you think? As Iran says the spice doesn’t have to flow. At all. No infrastructure no oil. No sandworms no spice. No infrastructure no credit. No credit for Iran. No credit for Saudi. Aramco will pay the dividend? No credit for capital investment for new infrastructure that can be destroyed in a blink. Lots of Shaheds no infrastructure. Everyone thought they had a deterent. Mutually assured destruction. As it turns out the deterents we thought were deterents are not all that and the ones that have sprung up are not either. Everyone is ok hitting the wall. Ke sera.
https:/https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/9/why-us-iran-war-over-hormuz-is-threatening-the-gulfs-waters&ved=2ahUKEwjZ0eqQ8OuWAxUfmWoFHeHjGpkQFnoECCIQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2ZvSIBkeVuP02uZE57xvMh
You are right. Oil spills are one thing that Gulf countries will worry about.
Try this link:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/9/why-us-iran-war-over-hormuz-is-threatening-the-gulfs-waters
Why US-Iran war over Hormuz is threatening the Gulf’s waters
US-Iran attacks on tankers around Hormuz are raising fears of devastating oil spills across the Gulf.
As of Monday, MarineTraffic data shows 42 tankers waiting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, while hundreds of other vessels are waiting or moving slowly in the wider Gulf of Oman and the Gulf region. Of those tankers, 18 are carrying oil.
While it is not known exactly how much, if any, crude they were carrying, these vessels have an estimated combined capacity of 1.76 million cubic metres of oil and petroleum products – cargo that could be at risk if attacks on commercial shipping continue.
. . .
A spill already spreading off Oman
Oil has been leaking from the Caroline Bezengi since it ran aground about 22 nautical miles (41km) off Oman’s coast after its crew reported a suspected explosion in early June. The Reuters news agency estimates the tanker was carrying 800,000 barrels of oil.
Oman’s Environment Authority warned that the spill could affect about 40km (25 miles) of coastline near Ras Madraka, as well as Masirah Island.
I am sure that the countries in the Gulf region would be worried about this. They have fishing industries, and perhaps tourist industries. Oil does biodegrade, and there are organisms that “eat” oil. We know that there are a huge number of natural oil seeps. In fact, that is how many offshore oil resources have been found. In the long run, nature takes care of these spills, but the intermediate time is a problem.
light UAV = light unmanned aerial vehicles
“running the south passage gauntlet” = trying to get through, despite the attempted blockade.
I imagine this will happen. Insurers will not want to cover this kind of things.
Given the onslaught of bad news for the US, isn’t it strange that we hear not a peep from them? are they very busy with putting the finishing touches to the Trump ballroom? and we are not even discussing Canada seeking a trillion dollars (through bond sales) to build new pipelines, and a possible imminent Iranian nuclear test. Canada also signing financial accords with Europe, not just diminishing the already bad market for treasuries. Bessent must be sobbing on his husband chest at night, accusing the world of bigotry when he was not taken seriously that he “is the house now”. (Market says: “go in the kitchen and make me a sandwich.”)
The lack of bad news hitting the US amazes me, as well.
The debt Canada is looking for presumably relates to new pipelines to send more heavy crude to China, rather than the US.
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/other/asia-is-poised-to-take-up-70-of-canadian-oil-exports-pipeline-executive-says/ar-AA2bNXP0
Asia is poised to take up to 70% of Canadian oil exports, pipeline executive says
Yes, some news are three layers bad. I suspect that regime changing Canada is going to be tough.
BREAKING: Costco is now rationing motor oil for the first time in history, limiting members to one transaction and a maximum of 2 units every 7 days on its Kirkland house-brand full-synthetic oil.
https://x.com/HormuzLetter/status/2099134927765754166
WOW!
Costco is now rationing motor oil
“stores are now imposing a two-per-customer, per-week limit.” – Drive
https://x.com/DonMiami3/status/2099038546942406906/photo/1
Sorry, I didn’t see you posted it. plse Ignore/apologize duplicate above.
That’s wild tho.
And breaks the ice to rationing all oil products . (Gasoline next? maybe diesel?
Update, update….
Saudi Arabia will run out of oil stocks for exports if it doesn’t restart its major pipeline to the Red Sea within days, leading to a loss of up to 4 percent of global supply, Saudi oil buyers and traders told Reuters on Sunday.
A further decline in Saudi flows will worsen the global supply crunch, which has already pushed global fuel prices to record highs since the start of the US-Iran war.
Following the drone attacks launched from Iraq forced Saudi Arabia to shut its huge East-West oil pipeline on Friday, Riyadh has not given full details about the extent of the damage or how long the route will stay offline.
Sources that spoke to Reuters gave varying estimates, with one saying the damage could take as long as five to six weeks to repair, while another said it could be fixed sooner and could resume pumping partially while repairs are ongoing.
https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/saudi-arabian-pipeline-outage-threatens-global-oil-supply
Yeah, Baby, stock up now before the toilet paper runs out
The assumption here is that there is no problem other than the broken pipeline. How about the Houthis controlling the straight at the end of the pipeline?
Will Costco be able to replace this oil, at a similar price? Probably not.
It’s not the price , it is the quality . The basic ingredients for all synthetic motor oils come from SABIC ( Saudi Arabia Basic Industrial Chemicals) . This unit was bombed at the very beginning of the war and is working at 50% capacity . Of course logistics is still a headache .
Gail, I remember reading through a few papers about the 1970s “oil shock” and I was shocked to find out that inflation did not begin with the oil embargo in the 1970s but that inflation was high enough in the later half of the 1960s that if had been left uninterrupted would have become severe in the 1990s.
https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-inflation
The inflation of the second half of the 1960s, referred to as “the great inflation” was fueled by political initiatives to maximize employment and global trade. Just as with the most recent spells on inflation, helicopter money and currency debasement was behind “the great inflation”. The later half of the 1960s has been characterized as turbulent and violent but the explanations have been sociological or political and never economic; falling purchasing power and the disappearance of “low iq” jobs (outsourcing had also began before the 1970s) that made raising a family on a single income impossible. Just as with the 2000s, inflation of the 1960s led people to adopt new media quicker, even though tv, and cable (in the later half of the 1970s), were more expensive up front. Despite the higher upfront cost, people flocked to new media due to the perception they’d be getting more content for less. (This lie behind cable tv disappeared by the mid 2000s right around the time the internet was becoming the dominant media. New content made exclusively for cable tv began to dry up. )
People lying about or misrepresenting the past made seem like nothing new but I think there’s more going on here. Not only do we double down, we seem to insist on re-creating the past to the point people just think we are just on particular part of a cycle, like another world war 2 or another post-war boom, or another late 1990s dot com internet bubble. This perspective tends to lead people to brush off limits to growth issues assuming they can be addressed with policy (“we need more Raeganism” or New Deal!”)
There were 3 problems with oil at the time:
– 1973. The ‘Oil Shock’ you speak of, the Middle Eastern oil embargo, which came later and had immediate effects
– 1970. Conventional oil production peaked in America
– 1960s. As the best spots got exhausted, and before peaking, Oil loses EROI, that’s obvious, and that’s what happened and generated the inflation you speak about, even if absolute quantity only peaked in 1970.
– 1971. There was also the Nixon Shock, but this didn’t affect the 60s. It was more a consequence of both the inflation that was forming due to the lowering of American oil’s EROI and the peak in the previous year.
Thinking about it more, EROI works literally like diminishing quantity, as less oil is available to be used in the economy, and more and more is used just to sustain production and distribution. And that will always generate inflation, always.
Now, deflation appears as a secondary effect after sufficient and spiking inflation destroys the economy via demand destruction.
I imagine how that happened in the past, when burning trees was the energy equivalent.
I reject the notion that the inflation of the 1960s was due to the lowering of eori oil. The evidence leads me to conclude that it was driven by policies to maximize demand. If falling eori on oil was the primary driver of inflation in the 1960s, inflation in the 1960s would have been coupled with a recession or two. Oil is important but not primarily the ONLY input that determines whether a place is a low cost area to manufacture something.
-The oil shocks came at a time as U.S. was doubling its imports from the Middle East. From 1965-1975.
https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/showtext.php?t=ptb0507
There was a domestic peak and decline in high eroi oil production but the initial reaction to is the same exact reaction we have now, consume more oil. That’s my point.
You are right. Inflation did begin before oil prices started pushing prices up, starting about 1973. It began in the second half of the 1960s.
https://www.rateinflation.com/inflation-rate/usa-historical-inflation-rate/
I worked in the insurance industry, starting in 1970, and I noticed this pattern. The estimates that claims adjusters made initially with respect to how much would be paid in settlements tended to turn out too low, on average. Reserves set in 1967, 1968, and 1969 did not pay out as well as expected.
Insurance companies with liability claims that took several years to settle were especially hurt by this changing pattern. Their premiums were based on earlier cost levels than their payments.
One aspect left out, we were in a guns and butter economy with funding the Vietnam War still being waged….just like today….History repeating itself..sort of…
Wonder if the attack on Iran would have occurred if they had no resources like North Korea…just asking for Kim, his friend
Yeah, I remeber the late 60s as a schoolboy. What I recall of economic matters was that there was signiificant inflation on metal prices and a stock market boom based on mining stocks. We had our own scrap metal collections of copper and lead (for cigarette money) and currency redenomination provided cover for the govt to remove all the silver coins which were 50% silver from circulation and replace them with cupronickel. A friend’s father, who was the equivalent of a today day trader, opened up my first broker’s accountand set me on my way to play the boom which lasted almost another two years. Then 1970, my first experience of a crash. Worse than this, though, I was just a little too young to participate the the hippie era – by the time I caught up with it it was just over the hill and then poor Jimmy Hendrix and Janis …
Michael Hudson has written extensively about the end of the 60s and the Vietnam War induced inflation. This killed the fixed currency system of Bretton Woods which gave us wonderful exchange rates. The coup de grace was Nixon repudiating gold redeemability and the following toil shocks.
ah, the days of abundance …
Medicare started on July 1, 1965. Also, the Viet Nam War significantly ramped up in this period. War is an excuse for more employment and spending.
And, I believe that Social Security was collecting substantially more than it was spending in expenses during this period, allowing the system to temporarily look better funded than it was for the long run. This was before the overhang of all of the interest on borrowed debt, adding to the mess.
Thinking about it, the addition of Medicare to pay for whatever disabled people and those who are 65 or over thought they needed helped enable rising health care costs for the long term.
Arabie Saoudite : 36 heures chrono
https://2000watts.org/index.php/energies-fossiles/petrole/1490-arabie-saoudite-36-heures-chrono.html
This is a very timely article, about how the US let Saudi Arabia down, its time of greatest need.
Saudi Arabia: 36 Hours
While Trump was promising $5,000 to his fellow citizens, a major oil pipeline was blown up in Saudi Arabia. Drones launched from Iraq carried out the attack. Furthermore, the Houthis seized control of the region’s second-largest oil strait.
The Houthis’ lightning advance took place in just 36 hours. They succeeded in capturing the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, through which a large portion of Saudi Arabia’s oil passes. . .
Calls for help: we’re on our way
Desperate calls for air support from Yemeni generals began pouring in mid-morning on Thursday. The advance of the Iranian-backed Houthis toward the strategic port city of Mocha was in full swing, and no reinforcements from their main ally, Saudi Arabia, were in sight.
The United States Central Command had assured that the US was ” closely monitoring the situation and that Saudi air support was en route .” Needless to say, the air support never arrived. . .
A few hours later on Friday, the Houthis seized another strategic coastal site, Perim Island, at the mouth of the Red Sea. The island divides the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in two, thus giving Tehran de facto control of another vital maritime route.
Trump’s geopolitical expertise
In Riyadh, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called Trump twice. Too busy preparing for his appearance at the Republican convention and his golf trip to Ireland this weekend, he declined the help. “You can manage on your own,” he announced. . .
Between now and Monday morning, when the oil and financial markets open, Washington needs to find a solution or a communication plan. Will they bomb the Houthis to dislodge them? In any case, there is a need to reduce diesel prices, which are over $6 in the US. . .
If oil tankers can no longer pass, the budget will be short of petrodollars. Trump’s phone must be ringing off the hook this weekend. This weekend also sees the meeting of Gulf foreign ministers, who also need to reassure the markets before they open this Monday.
To sum up, this weekend: The BRICS are meeting, the Gulf ministers are meeting, Trump is playing golf in Ireland. Something is going to happen, but what?
Never mind, Gail. You can still look forward to your five thousand bucks, and I just know you’ll want to share it with your loyal commenters here. 😉
I want it, and I want it now….but I’ll wait if they print up a special commemorative issue with DJTrump picture on the C note….that would make it extra special like his good coin
https://apnews.com/article/iraq-iran-yemen-saudi-arabia-c1359273dd970b969e823356e5ead377
Attack that closed key Saudi pipeline is blamed on Iran-backed militias in Iraq
For the kind of fires it started there must have been substantial drones involved. I think it was Iran.
The accused have denied involvement.
Launchers were apparently left to be found.
The military leader of the region that the launch is said to have originated from has been sacked by the PM, who it is said has also closed a border crossing(with Iran) and flights from at least one airport(to Iran only).
Iranian MPs are already demanding that gas supplies be shut off and no more gratis at Hormuz(as a first measure), if Iraq plays the USs game.
The Iraqi PM will fold soon enough, no matter what the yanks tell him to do(as can be witnessed by the dragging of feet when it comes to the disarming of above mentioned group).
Watch Yemen, as other Arab tribes will be paying close attention,.
The Koran might even tell them to do that and a lead that should be followed.
Worrying times for those that find themselves living in someone else’s home, uninvited. Saud has struck yemen 129 times in 48hrs, but agreed not to retaliate against the supposed attacker, just to telegraph their fear to anyone that was still unsure, but of course there will be bigger losers(next year, no more, if predictions prove correct).
“Yemen is a nation that, if fully liberated from the proxy forces of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, would undoubtedly dedicate its foreign policy to opposing the Zionist entity and supporting the Palestinian Resistance. This alone is a major threat to the Israeli regime.
Yet, it will also mean something else. It will be the only Arab country that has an independent government which is not allied with the United States. In other words, it will serve as an example to the entire region and will represent the spirit of Arabism. For Riyadh, Damascus, Amman, Cairo and beyond, this is a major problem, because once the example is set, their own populations could begin getting ideas about what their future should look like”
https://english.almayadeen.net/articles/why-the-israelis-are-so-afraid-of-a-liberated-yemen
Let us spare a thought for Wiley Bin Salman, who is going down the stairs head first, in his inimitable way, without helmet. He has been frantically calling the ACME company, who has promised to help as soon as one of the carriers gets out of the shop, six months from now. He is now preparing for a 2T confiscation of bonds, which will be advertised in the west as winning. Probably also preparing his villa in Aspen.
Explosive media were quick to join the fun.
https://farsnews.ir/Sayeh/1789297002826559324/Explosivemedia-LEGOStyle-Video-Mocks-Saudi-Reliance-on-US-Air-Support
The tribes will be rumbling with discontent, given the consistent repetition of picking the worst option each and every time.
There’s another on there about the anti ship missile(today, so should still be on the main page), which is interesting given Iran’s announcement of their own blockade line(Pakistan border across to Oman).
In other news the Iraqi PM folded in record time(by this morning) and the Abu Dhabi royals have been sucking up to Masoud Pezeshkian, whilst the Iraqi military are begging the dumb Kurd separatists to move away from the border, before Iran invokes the signed agreement and sends them to their maker, whilst charging the Iraqis for not controlling their side of the border.
Syria is starting to kick off again as well (fuel prices(remember Yemen and the start of the true Arab Spring, might be just around the corner)).
For a bit of normality, Ghalibaf is still playing with their minds on social media(musk media for those that do, but I don’t so no link).
Yes but it was Iran. Only Iran has the long range telecommunication for precision strikes with shahed class.
This is a escalation in itself. Iran has demonstrated it can launch shahed class from Iraq and control them for precision strikes. Most probably IRGC were directly involved. Iraq has closed the border crossing.
Shia militias operate widely in Iraq. Very widely. This may be a message to Turkiye to stay out of the Yemen conflict. Not that they show any sign of jumping in. The Mecca agreement ink fresh. From Iraq Shahed class can hit anywhere in Turkiye. It also complicates any sort of Saudi defense.
You don’t have to transport a Shahed on a truck. The components can be transported in a passenger vehicle and assembled at the launch point. But it’s the Iranian telecommunication that allows the strikes. The operator guiding it in could well be in Iran and probably is not at the launch point.
There are quite the rumors out there that Iran is about to leave the NPT. Historically this is accompanied with a nuclear test/demonstration. This could be seen as a response to the question how Pakistans nuclear capability apply under the Mecca agreement.
This of course would be a immediate crisis and not only for adversaries in the region. It may be part of the extreme response to the ballistic missiles launched at the carrier group. If one were to have a nuclear warhead and detonate with a airburst it’s accuracy would not be relevant. As uncomfortable as a ballistic missile coming down is not knowing whether it’s payload is nuclear in nature would be more uncomfortable.
Iran is not stupid enough to do that. But if and when they demonstrate nuclear capability that carrier group can be destroyed at will. It’s been extremely unusual to use ballistic missiles with conventional explosives because they are too fast to be accurate. Nuclear payloads fix that.
We are in a period of extreme escalation. The damage to Saudi was not minor even ignoring the pipeline itself a major escalation. Not pin pricks. Significant infrastructure destruction.No one believes anyone other than Iran did the pipeline because no one else had the capability to guide the shahed class into the pumping station with perfect accuracy at that range.
If Saudi does not respond directly against Iran it is a complete loss of face even though Iran gave them a way out with (un) plausible deniability by launching from Iraq.The whole region knows who destroyed the pumping station. The region knows who told Ansarallah gloves off. If Saudi does not respond directly against Iran complete loss of face and defacto domination. Iran did it this way by not using Ansarallah for the strike on purpose. It’s a defacto claim of dominance in Iraq as well. The textbooks will have this one listed under asymmetrical if humanity actually survives this.
Saudi will respond against Ansarallah to pretend to save face. Iran and Ansarallah will pretend they saved face. The reality will be Saudi will not respond against Iran directly. Iran demonstrates a primary rule. Always leave your adversary with a way out. Do not put their back against a wall. This is it. This is Irans demand for copitulation that allows Saudi to save face. No such thing is offered to the Don. If Iran leaves NPT …
Very dangerous times.
I agree. We are in very dangerous times. The Shahed drones are extremely capable drones.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shahed_drones
Wikipedia says:
The Shahed drones are developed by Shahed Aviation Industries. . . On 5 December 2011, the Iranian government seized an American Lockheed Martin RQ-170 Sentinel UAV, which had been commandeered and brought down by Iran’s cyberwarfare unit.[9] Shahed Aviation Industries then reverse-engineered the American UAV, and used the acquired knowledge to develop the Shahed 171 Simorgh and Shahed 191 Saeqeh.[10]
There are many different models of these drones. There seem to be made in Iran, with parts imported from around the world.
Ansarallah is a different name for the Houthis.
I presume the NPT is the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. We don’t want nuclear bombs exploding overhead. They cause great damage.
One of my sons tells me that the Saudi Arabian army is intentionally very weak. It is intended primarily as a way to provide employment to local citizens, but those in power do not want the army to become strong enough to themselves take over and lead the company.
Drones are just a sideshow. Like rates, debt etc etc.
Managed degrowth is in full attack mode. The Bretton Woods Bullshit is in motion Sheeple. A capped flow through tech smart same old.
That makes sense, regarding the army.
Historically, Arab politics has been very treacherous, one bloodbath after another.
During the early Empire, the rulers took to using Turkic mercenaries instead of Arab soldiers, to create an army loyal only to them, without Arab tribal allegiances which were dangerous to the ruler.
Eventually, however, the Turks took over themselves, selecting Arabs as mere puppet rulers.
Well less oil on the market.. I guess that should make the price of oil go down…. Right?!? Markets are so manipulated. I hope Trump has a place to hide Bessent when this whole thing crashes
With things going was badly as they have been recently, I would not be shocked by this. Most markets are not paying attention to this rumor, however.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/beijing-threatens-cancel-trump-summit-if-us-approves-new-arms-sale-taiwan
Japanese news outlet Kyodo News reported that Beijing threatened earlier today to cancel the summit with President Trump in Washington if the US approves new arms sales to Taiwan.
Kyodo stated:
“China has told the United States that it intends to cancel a planned meeting between their leaders later this month if Washington approves any new arms sales to Taiwan by then, multiple sources familiar with bilateral ties said Saturday.
“U.S. President Donald Trump, apparently eager to showcase some diplomatic achievements ahead of November’s midterm congressional elections, places great importance on holding the summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
“While preparing for Xi’s upcoming trip, China has restated its position that the Taiwan issue is a “red line” in bilateral relations, sources said.”
Do they have arms to sell? I am just a guy on the internet but this is a clear cut two birds one stone chance for the US.
NYC went from being attacked by Muslims. To being owned by them.
(bad joke, sorry, Ill let myself out)
You do not know what you are talking about. It is clear to anyone paying attention that another tribe has owned NYC for over a century.
who’s says there’s only one?
You should come to South Florida, baby, talk about tribes…Oy Vey!
The owning class needs rent payers.
the owning class is too fat and can’t adapt.
Fascinating interview with Alexander Dugin, influential Kremlin insider and Russian “court” philosopher. He discusses the recent visits from Ratcliffe and the Trump personal envoys. His reflections on the different roles of the head of state in Russia and the USA give significant insight into both Putin and the Russian political structure. The interview continues to discuss the recent AfD victory in the east German state elections and the emergence of strengthening opposition to mainstream centrist politics. He extends his analysis to European nations more broadly.
What is taking shape in Europe, broadly, is a new political situation: a fight to the death between the party of common sense and elites who have gone completely manic. These are elites who insist on perversion, on wars, on crimes, on immorality and sin against the will of their own peoples. That is why they are winding democracy down, hanging terrifying labels on anyone who respects common sense, and waging what amounts to a terrorist war against them. That is Europe as it now stands.
The interview conclude with a comment on a major procession of hundreds of thousands recently in Moscow to celebrate traditional orthodox Russian values, in essence a support for the present political direction.
https://www.multipolarpress.com/p/kings-yes-jokers-no
Of course there is no relation to energy depletion. Dugin is a light weight intellectual, well below Gail for example. Immorality is largely something that is against life values and at a time when population degrowth is needed almost a necessity so i do not know what he is talking about.
Putin is almost certainly a decent man but his co-tribesmen in music and movies trace a path much closer to Hollywood and american media, even though depopulation is not needed. I do not own a TV but when I drink coffee with friends at the local hotel or wait at the local DMV I get to see what it spews. Same when I take a taxi. The population responds by ending 70% of marriages in divorce and producing very few children. Putin so far has maintained a balance between his tribes interests and the nation’s interests. That will abruptly end when the war ends. He has to become much more pro-small business, pro-returning soldiers, pro-family, anti-forced vaccines. Stalin did pick the right side and eventually paid with his life.
“Population Degrowth..”
Gotta get a tee shirt that says that!
Dugin is imho mixing up all kinds of stuff. Btw, his daughter Darya was killed by a car-bomb, why isn’t he on that case? (… there may be reasons, Idk.)
From the linked article summary:
“Dugin argues that Trump sent family and dealmakers to hear that Moscow will end the war on its own terms, while Europe’s “common-sense” revolt and a vast Moscow procession show peoples waking up faster than the elites still enforcing their firewall can keep up.”
Kushner and Witcoff are not negotiators, they are messengers. They come with some kind of message / proposal, get a response, say thanks, and leave.
Russia (Putin) has made its aims in UKR. clear since forever, everybody knows all this, Trump has tried from before his first term for ‘peace’ and lucrative deals with Russia, but he can’t attain that, it doesn’t fly, >> much interference, many complications, etc.
As for Europe’s ‘common sense revolt’, yes, what are called ‘radical right-wing’ parties in some European countries shout loud for a ‘positive’ re-set of relations with Russia (mostly re. energy matters and geographical proximity – while the screeching is kicking out lousy immigrants.) These parties are aligned (some say bought by) ISR, and support it tentatively (they know the public doesn’t agree) or whole-heartedly. For ex. Alice Weidel, the present ‘star’ of AFD (she is co-chair of the party, not the head) has always stressed that ISR has the right to ‘defend itself.’
I can believe this:
“Kushner and Witcoff are not negotiators, they are messengers. They come with some kind of message / proposal, get a response, say thanks, and leave.”
Russia won’t reduce its demands in any way.
A comment on the affordability of petrol and diesel
I would like to make a comment about the affordability of petrol and diesel, which is what is usually debated here.
As of today, the price per litre of petrol in Egypt is about 47 cents. In Morocco, the price is $1.58; in the Netherlands, the price is $2.67; in Peru, the price is $1.60. Remember that I am talking in litres, not gallons. In Venezuela, the price is 4 cents at government-subsidised stations and 50 cents at non-subsidised ones. In Australia, the price is $1.54 US dollars. In India, the price is around $1.12 per litre. In Gabon, Africa, the price is $1.05 per litre.
The list is endless and the differences, as can be seen, are abysmal.
Therefore, in my opinion, the problem of affordability has more to do with tax issues than with the availability of the product.
Let’s say this is an expression of the canary in the coal mine problem: as long as there are countries that can sell fuel for fifty cents, it is not possible to point to scarcity as the cause of unaffordability, but rather to tax policies, which have found in fuels an easy source of revenue to tax.
If your criticism is energy, and it is, before reaching collapse, governments can abandon their policy of aggressive taxes on fuels and extract that revenue from other products, such as dried peas, mandarins and shower gel, to give three stupid examples that no one can seriously cling to.
If oil has a common or similar origin, and prices are so disparate, the problem of affordability lies not so much in the oil as in the channels that carry it to the end consumer.
Affordability, like Father Christmas and the Three Wise Men, is down to the parents. The problem is not out there: it is at home.
This might help some but the economy runs on diesel, not petrol.
#Hungary will give 20,000 forints ($64) per car to hundreds of thousands of drivers through the end of the year to help offset the impact of soaring fuel prices, the government said.
The payments of 5,000 forints each month until December will go to the owners of around a million diesel cars with a capacity of less than 150 horse power, Prime Minister Peter Magyar said in a social media post on Friday.
“We have chosen a form of support that helps those that need it but which won’t lead to fuel shortages or cost the budget another 50-100 billion forints,” he said.
Bloomberg
It did not take long for the globalist puppet who took Orban’s job to work his magic. and what about the nuclear plant that the Russkies built?
Virus outbreak spurs ‘horrendous’ deer die-off in Michigan
“Typically with this disease you can see a large number of deer die in a short period of time, mortalities in the same areas,” said Brent Rudolph, DNR deer, elk and moose management specialist. “The disease progresses pretty rapidly once they are exposed.”
Visible symptoms of EHD in deer include appearing lethargic, disoriented, lame or unresponsive − though those symptoms can often be associated with other deer illnesses or injuries. Deer infected with EHD may show bloody discharge from the nose and mouth, a swollen or blue-tinged tongue and swelling of the eyelids or around the neck and head.
“If you’re a landowner or at the place you hunt, it could be very noticeable − come this fall you may find, wow, there are a lot fewer deer around because of that localized outbreak has occurred and a large number can die pretty quickly,” he said.
https://www.freep.com/story/news/environment/2026/09/11/ehd-deer-disease-outbreak-michigan-dnr/91689382007/?gnt-cfr=1&gca-cat=p&gca-uir=false&gca-epti=z118147p004350l000950c004350e1174xxv118147&gca-ft=58&gca-ds=sophi
Italy just sent in the military to rome to stop crime. (checkpoints set up)
https://nypost.com/2026/09/05/world-news/rome-declares-area-around-colosseum-a-red-zone-adding-24-hour-security/
And according to CNN “The military — armed and wearing camouflage standing by their vehicles — has always been present in the area, but has not fully deterred criminals, CNN reported.”
Gimmie a break. LOL
https://nypost.com/2026/09/05/world-news/rome-declares-area-around-colosseum-a-red-zone-adding-24-hour-security/
We must be getting close cause they’re moving their pieces into place..
Too many poor people can become a problem. At least, at this time of year, it should be getting cooler. Having unhappy poor people congregate in hot weather seems to be a recipe for problems.
I think we are going to see changes in a availability and pricing of food in the future. Every aspect of food production uses diesel both in production and transportation. Ideally this will just be passed to the consumer leaving the industries intact but I’m not sure that is realistic. Certainly fishing will be effected and of course agriculture.
Diesel machinery and trucking is going to become less profitable to operate lowering its value. There will be losses and where it has been financed they may end up in the banks. Some of these pieces of equipment are incredibly expensive. We may see a large devaluation and cessation of investment into new equipment effecting manufacturers.
I think pricing and profit models are going to change across the board for food in the USA. Retailers will adjust seeking to sell food with good profit margins and reasonable availability. This may be more expensive types of food. If transportation and production cost go up the same for a $1 item and a$20 item the $20 item is less effected. USA has always had abundant available and affordable food relative to income levels. I think we will see changes ahead.
Agriculture faces challenges. Large retailers seek the best deal on produce and high profit margins. If they can’t get it how farmers sell their crop is not their problem.
I think we will see large societal changes around this also. Many regard food as a right. There will probably be attempts to fix this with money at some point ignoring the energy input that is causal. Currency debasement is probably inevitable. It is at that point reality of the situation will become impossible to ignore. There will be more money but the quantity and quality of food purchased will be reduced not increased. If I have one hope it is more affordable foods will remain available albeit less affordable as a substitute for more expensive foods. That will depend on the degree of currency debasement. Beans rice and potatoes beats nothing any day of the week.
I have a friend who considers herself self sufficient. She spends $600 a month on feed for the animals. I haven’t had the heart to explain things to her. Nor would my perspective be welcome in the least.
I feel there are learning experiences ahead and they will be painful. People will want to return to “back to normal” even if things have fundamentally changed. And that seems to be the crux of the situation right now. The benefits of relatively abundant and affordable energy are regarded as normal and any deviation as temporary.
We’ll be entering rationing and quotas territory as soon as next year if nothing changes about the wars in ~30 days. Today we saw a dramatic escalation of affairs, and critical infrastructure keeps getting destroyed.
Rationing may not look the way we expect. The strange shut-ins of 2020 are a way of reducing automobile usage, but something a bit different may be needed for reducing diesel usage.
I also feel like we are close. One unexpected thing is that you feel it when it is about to come.
like any day now… things feel very weird.
We have gotten spoiled in the US with abundant and affordable food.
So has Europe, and every other country…
I had hoped to gain about a 100 pounds of fat for the end times … now I am too late!
Not just the US, of course!
Everyone I know is spoiled and soft, regarding luxuries and total comfort as the base level of existence.
Frankly, even members of the aristocracy led physically harder lives in the past, in many respects (their houses, palaces and castles emphasised grandeur rather than comfort).
My father is still typically Spanish in talking about ‘el comfort ingles!’
This is also true of the Western working class who, if they do work outside and do dirty and tiring jobs, can also go back to warm and comfortable homes and fill their bellies, and take foreign vacations several times a year.
Migrants too, live in sufficient comfort even on welfare, from my observations in London.
Quite a shock coming to everyone….
I am afraid even those who try to be self-sufficient by establishing their homesteads or even those who try to form small communal groups will be shocked to find out that in the event of a food crunch, their gardens and chicken coops will be raided.
It is a perverse chicken or the egg dilemma. There is be a need for population degrowth, yet people will not be able to become self -sufficient with these homesteads —until there is population degrowth!
I AM THE MOB’s Comment above made me think about all those romantic preppers who think they are going to provide food in a crunch by hunting for deer. I thought CWD (Chronic Wasting Disease) in deer is due to prions, but involved only small numbers, but now there may be a virus that is killing off deer there in Michigan at a faster rate.
But in the event of a true SHTF, deer population will be depleted by hunters in weeks, kind of like what happened during the Great Depression, when deer numbers collapsed from overhunting. It took decades and government restrictions through permits, and a lifting of the economic factors that contributed to the GD to start restoring their numbers.
I am gradually having to accept the futility of it all.
At present, homesteading, veg gardening, etc can help people to be disciplined, and to feel purposeful and happy, which is no small thing.
I wouldn’t attempt to disillusion anyone who is doing that sort of thing. If one feels one is not powerless and in the helpless grip of wider forces, it’s a better place to be than open-eyed despair.
I did note a comment on a UK prepping YT channel, in which the maker asked what five essentials people would buy to prep: one commenter wrote ‘One thing, a machete, then I could take things.’
Indeed Xabier, I have recently thought the best strategy might be to have all the seeds, pumps, chicken wire/mesh, electric fence, batteries, solar panels, and charge units, wire, even raised garden bed cedar boards, farm implements etc stashed away for future use, while trying to gain as much book knowledge about homesteading, yet not planting your garden or your building your chicken coop until AFTER a “depopulation” or SHTF event.
The best strategy ( not that there will be any guarantee for any strategy) may be to have enough food supplies to last you through the “lying flat” period (as the Chinese youth call it) until it is safe to start your own food production, although there is considerable risk of failure ( learning curve) especially on your first try.
Kind of like how gold and silver will probably only be useful after the crunch when things restart on the smaller more regional or community scale. Until then, gold and silver for stackers will be a “feel good” false assurance.
Hahaha. 2 weeks to flatten the curve!
Likely the better idea despite the reference imo. Blend in, look like you’re starving the same as your neighbors, stay strong enough to outlast the walord’s hordes (& hold on to your hidden supplies), and then very gradually roll out whatever plan you have. There are worse options.
I have lots of old, torn, stained crappy clothes specially reserved so as not to stick out. I wear them wood-cutting too.
In town one day, an old boy came up to me and said ‘I used to do what you do: I was a farmer’!
So, I would say the ‘disguise’ worked. I was dressing down that day.
Grow food that people aren’t used to: Jerusalem artichokes are recommended by some.
Here in the US South, 4 or 5 okra plants will keep you alive and give you enough okra to can for the winter.
Our bounty with potatoes this summer makes me think we could almost survive…except for the folks that will kill you for food.
https://taalas.com/
1000x less power for inference. Acquired by AMD. Maybe we do not need to give Altman 100 trillion dollars. This is an important step to personal at home AI with a complete history of the users preferences.
Personal AI is the wave of the future. You can have your AI align with your politics, religion, sex orientation, cultural position. If you are a senior, white, married, Lutheran, from Norway your AI will highlight news, art, things of interest to you.
The AI for a KSA minor prince with three wife and ten children, with fears of being killed in palace intrigue, a fondness of horse riding and several women will offer different information.
The Era of Material Scarcity Has Arrived
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/the-era-of-material-scarcity-has?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1498475&post_id=214546856&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=216vfx&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Thanks, Fast Eddy appears in the comment ssection as a reply
Fast Eddy
7h
When we are gone — all traces of humans will be eliminated by the Mother… it might take a couple of million years… but she’s if anything patient
I prefer the “early eddy” and “mid eddy” Hoolio period.
“Replacing all fossil fuels requires roughly 4.5 billion tonnes of copper. Known world reserves sit at 880 million tonnes. We currently mine about 25 million tonnes a year. At this pace, it will take 187 years to extract enough copper for the energy transition. “?
https://ctindale.substack.com/p/the-copper-residual
There have been a lot of road works in my locality in recent months. Apparently they are updating the fibre optics network (if that’s the right term).
I switched to the fibrenet a year ago, having been bribed with a lower monthly fee by my ISP. I was sad to lose my landline, though, as I struggle to type with my thumbs on my titchy mobile. Cue lots of mistyping and backspacing. I much prefer the wide keyboard of my desktop PC, where my fingers can range at will.
A lot of copper is being replaced by fibre now. When I order a new cable for my printer, I was surprised to receive a fibre cable instead of the usually plastic and wire one. I was highly distrustful of it, but it works fine.
Exactly. Which is why replacing all fossil fuels is a fake all or nothing argument. It’s like saying if I can’t be a billionaire I will be homeless.
Yes, the formerly Fast Eddy was much more entertaining than the mellow version
This is an interesting article, mostly about the shortage of copper, and to some extent, other critical mineral. B makes some interesting observations near the end, particularly about how the Iran war is squeezing China’s use of copper and other critical minerals. This is an excerpt:
Putting The Copper Shortage Into Perspective
The world economy is entering an era of growing scarcity. Not only when it comes to copper, which is essential to everything electric and cannot be easily substituted, but also diesel fuel, fertilizer, sulfur, helium, and in a few months time: food. The war on Iran has arrived at the worst possible time: when future copper supply was already put into question and when world oil production was already just a few short years away from embarking on its long decline.
War and geopolitics act as an accelerator here, pushing the world far faster and far deeper into disarray than it otherwise would be the case. Viewed from a higher perspective the US-Iran war was thus never really about Iran but Asia—and especially China. By limiting oil supplies to the region (which used to source 80% of its petroleum imports from the Persian Gulf) the US has managed to throw Chinese domestic consumption growth into reverse, and imposed a considerable cost increase on Chinese manufacturing—squeezing profit margins there, as well as putting a strain on Chinese banks financing these activities. It also reduced South-East Asian growth rates by imposing much higher fuel costs on the region, and increased US political leverage by becoming these nations’ biggest LNG and LPG supplier. Last but not least, the lasting impacts of this war has reduced Asia’s future critical mineral demand growth potential—especially, but not solely, for copper.
Unless we enter an economic depression ruining South East Asian economies, where demand growth for the red metal was the highest before the war, the world will likely face a worsening physical copper scarcity. This, together with the unfolding many other commodity shortages and the growing debt crisis, will put a pressure on the US economy as well, potentially pushing an already weak economy into a severe recession and its revered stock market into a free fall. Producer prices for commodities are higher than ever—higher than in 2008, higher than in 2022—we are already in uncharted territory. And while it’s hard to predict how this story will end, or how the world will accommodate to a lower and lower output of critical materials and oil, one thing is for sure: the current economic-growth model can no longer be sustained and is about to end for good.
As that odious, but not in this respect insignificant, little man Macron stated a few years ago, definitively:
‘The age of abundance is over’.
And no one was listening.
When oil prices rise and LNG quantities are cut back, the price of coal rises, to encourage it to act as a substitute.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/coal-nears-breakout-gulf-energy-shock-drives-utilities-back-dirty-fuel-ahead-winter
Coal Nears Breakout As Gulf Energy Shock Drives Utilities Back To Dirty Fuel Ahead Of Winter
Newcastle thermal coal futures are approaching the $150-a-ton breakout level as the global energy shock, most acute in industrial fuels, encourages utilities to shift toward coal ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter while electrification trends and all things AI expand electricity demand. . .
The IEA identified gas-to-coal switching in China, South Korea, Japan and Europe, showing how a Gulf supply shock is reshaping electricity generation far beyond the region, especially in Europe where natural gas prices have topped 80 euros per megawatt-hour.
Just for a laugh .
The new I phone in India is for $ 4500 . The base price for a Tata Tiago cheapest model car is $ 4700 . 🤣
Wow! I can imagine that theft rates would be high for i-phones.
There was a story from India of the death of an adult son that jumped off a building upset over an argument he was having with his Father over his smart phone bill. The father lost his life also while trying to save him from doing so.
The poor mother also died afterwards by taking her own life afterwards by the grief. Very sad
19-Year-Old Falls to His Death Alongside His Parents amid Argument Over His New Phone: Reports
Kunal Chandgude’s parents and emergency personnel spent three hours trying to convince him not to jump off a cliff before the tragedy on Friday, Aug. 21
By Escher Walcott Published on August 23, 2026 08:13AM EDT
Crazy times
As if the phone was his only connection with reality,
when energy gets less affordable. Or providing him some phantasies, false hopes, an illusion of free space?
Ravi, from Switz.
In the 60s, 70s, > 85 or so, older teens, young adults, 30’s, aspired to own a car.
A car was a status symbol, afforded self-decided travel, new experiences -> young ppl doubled up to buy one.
In 2026, the status symbol is the phone, which is used to (amongst many other services..) order prepared meals, groceries, various goods, services, via deliveries / etc. to their homes. See … “Hey Mate here is a Tip.” Too cool having other ppl do it all for you…
Wider-further movement is by Uber, train (Switz. train is +++ so not comparable to other countries) and plane.
Today, owning (by sharing, again) a private plane is the TOPS.
Recently, I’ve been exploring the sports ideology that shapes the media and promotes false narratives of infinite growth. Our Finite World (OFW) provides a framework for demystifying this ideology, which is used as a context for other texts, collectively reinforcing the view that we live in an infinite world:
“The deepest ideological lie is therefore not that athletes do not work hard. They obviously do. It is the claim that individual effort is the dominant causal explanation of performance. In a Tverberg/Our Finite World framework, the athlete is instead one component of a much larger energy-supported production system.”
https://chatgpt.com/share/6aa43aac-3dc4-83eb-a3ae-797dc9d0ff72
Thanks! This is pretty amazing.
Using Chat GBT to explain how energy consumption and diminishing returns are involved in reaching maximum performance for athletes. And how it is the group as a whole that succeeds, using energy in hidden ways.
I don’t think that I can really take credit for this view. Howard T. Odum developed the idea of measuring energy inputs of a combined system in terms of what he called “Transformities.” He was also one of the people involved in developing the Maximum Power Principle.
H. T. Odum died in 2002, so I never met him. I did meets his wife Elisabeth, his daughter Mary, and his student Mark Brown when I was invited down to the University of Florida once.
Prof. Charles Hall was a student of H. T. Odum. Hall developed the concept of EROEI, which is very much simplified. I have no great love for EROEI; it leaves out too much. It equates things that are not equivalent. But Transformities do not work well in calculations.
The economy builds up over time, using increasing quantities of energy as well as increasing complexity, to allow people to do things besides raising food and cooking it. As the system develops, more free time is available for some people to start writing books, and other people, later, to have time to read them. The system requires a huge amount of hidden energy that is invisible to most people.
It is true that AI sometimes mistakenly attributes EROI ideas to you, probably based on generalizations. I’m aware of that.
But the concept of the ever-more-complex system behind modern sports, which produces increasingly minor—or sometimes no—advancements in world records, is a true mirror of real human progress in physical terms.
ChatGPT provided this summary:
“Sporting records provide a physical demonstration of diminishing returns. The greatest improvements occurred while relatively accessible sources of performance gain were still available. From roughly the early 1970s onward, the rate of improvement began to decline substantially. The system responded not by abandoning the pursuit of growth, but by increasing complexity: more specialised training, technology, medical support, optimisation and resources were deployed to obtain progressively smaller improvements. Thus, modern sport can be interpreted as a miniature model of a broader finite-world process: as a physical frontier is approached, maintaining the appearance of continued progress requires disproportionately greater complexity and resource input for progressively smaller increments of output.”
https://chatgpt.com/share/6aa49d12-5578-83eb-8435-fb69043aa81f
I am well aware of AI’s limitations, and I always consider its outputs a source of inspiration.
I was amazed at what Chat GPT could do.
VLCC rent is now $ 1 million per day = $ 0.50 per barrel / per day . Transit time Basra to Busan is 40 days, so freight alone is now $ 20 per barrel . FUBAR .
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/mideast-chaos-sends-supertanker-rates-soaring-800000-day
Shipping transit time from Basra (via Umm Qasr, Iraq) to South Korea (Busan) generally takes between 25 to 40 days for sea freight, depending on vessel schedules and transshipment hubs.
Thank you for your attention .
Adding $20 per barrel for freight becomes a huge problem. The required selling price for products rises too high.
Yanbu ship loadings not unexpectedly fall to zero.
https://x.com/phileeppos/status/2098421379062235334
WSJ is reporting:
Anthropic Says Iran Used Its American AI Model to Target U.S. Navy Warships
Anthropic says it disrupted the plot, which was included in its report on adversaries using AI to develop weapons and track dissidents
An Iranian-linked group compiled information from ship and aircraft transponders, military photographs and commercial satellite photos to track American warships and look for vulnerabilities in their ship-born communications, the report found.
and they didn’t hit! AI is going to kill us all! (just like covid)
It’s all BS. All they can do is lie, they’ve been doing it since .com burst
I agree… it seems like AI is being used as an excuse for everything (like Covid).
And…
Oil is down?
Lukas Ekwueme
@ekwufinance
·
3h
Oil is plunging as reports emerge that Iran and GCC nations are meeting to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
We are in an endless loop of:
“Hormuz is going to open soon… just trust me this time, bro.”
Here is the answer .
This is a very strange world. Up and down. Attacks, and then rumors of settlements. We need each other, but there is not enough to go around. And all of the blockades make the situation worse.
Yes, strangely.
There is no way you can convince me that the price of oil not being manipulated by the West.
Have you ever wondered how Iran flies its huge VIP Airbus A340 when the West won’t sell them any plane spare parts?
Because of big economic sanctions, Iran can’t just call up Airbus to buy fresh engines or spare parts. So to keep their VIP plane flying, they have to use some crazy tricks:
Ghost Planes: They use fake companies in other countries to secretly buy old, retired planes. Once the plane is flying over Iran, it turns off its tracking signal, lands in Tehran, and mechanics immediately take it apart for spare engines and wheels!
Secret Middlemen: They buy small computer chips and valves through middleman sellers in places like the UAE and Turkey, pretending the parts are going somewhere else.
Smart Local Mechanics: Instead of taking the plane back to the factory in Europe for repairs, Iranian engineers fix the huge engines themselves and even make simple parts from scratch.
It sounds like something straight out of a spy movie, but it’s the only way they can keep their President’s plane safe in the air!
Sanctions . 🤣🤣
Georgia and on land transport also. I visited a truck part factory near Tehran and was amazed at their ingenuity.
When my husband and I visited Cuba a few years ago, we discovered somewhat of a lower version of this going on in Cuba. The taxi drivers were driving ancient automobiles, but they kept buying spare parts from wherever they could get them. They don’t have the major supplies of oil and gas that Iran has, so they could not just make parts themselves, however. They trained medical doctors, and bartered their services for oil from Venezuela.
All the grunts in the Saudi military are Pakistani. Saudi citizens come in as officers.
Saudi has soft infrastructure targets up the yahoo. Yemen has none.
Saudi should have cut loose some cash and bought Yemen some water treatment plants and agriculture equipment.
https://m.youtube.com/shorts/u3YNVYm7FRU
Yemen is an incredibly poor country. It is reported to have a population of 43 million, while Saudi Arabia has a population of 36 million. (Iran has a population of 93 million, and Israel has a population of a little under 10 million.)
Yemen’s oil production peaked years ago. It still has some natural gas to sell. Its water supplies are low for such a large population, however.
The number of humans must decline to a point where they can live off of local resources. A factor of 100x should be good.
Yemen 430,000 humans
KSA 360,000 humans
Iran 930,000 humans
Israel 100,000 humans
Zerohedge’s summary of where the war is now, very much overlapping with what we have heard elsewhere. Maps provided.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/twin-chokepoint-shock-houthis-seize-mayyun-island-bab-el-mandeb-strait-hormuz
Three converging threats to watch are intensifying pressure on global energy markets: damage to Russian refining capacity, ongoing disruption at Hormuz, and new, expanding Houthi threats to Red Sea shipping. The resulting physical market squeeze extends well beyond the Gulf area. Record-high diesel prices in the US and other markets, such as China’s return to buying crude, raise the risk that oil markets will remain exceptionally tight into the Northern Hemisphere winter.
What we know so far is that the Russia-Ukraine war has knocked out a whole bunch of refining capacity and halted exports of critical fuels from Russia. The Gulf area has seen an escalation in fighting this week as the Hormuz chokepoint remains open with tanker transits but still limited and far from pre-war levels.
Couple this all with the chokepoint madness still being disrupted and new developments overnight: Iran-backed Houthi forces advanced toward a strategic port near the southern entrance to the Red Sea, threatening to tighten control on a second critical shipping corridor.
Bloomberg reported that Houthi rebels have gained ground around Mokha, with some geopolitical analysts reporting that the Yemeni port city has fallen. . .
And strangely oil is falling this morning; it’s gotta be bessent manipulation
As you know in Italy we make good coffee with Mokka, that is a special boiler.
The name ‘moka’ has its roots in the ancient history of coffee, taking us back to the port city of Mokha (also known as Mocha or Al-Makha), situated on the west coast of Yemen…
https://www.foodandwineitalia.com/perche-la-moka-si-chiama-cosi-la-storia-della-caffettiera/
You don’t need any fancy expresso machine when you have the simple Mokka…
My Italian room-mate, from Bergamo, introduced me to that when I was student.
These days I make either Turkish coffee in a traditional copper pot, or use a French press, grinding the beans by hand in a 200 yr-old brass mortar, which is a pleasant start to the day.
Down with the Machines!
Nice to know where the mokka name came from thanks!
As a poncey Hackney type , I prefer an expressed coffee and have had many machines over the years. All have been destroyed by London limescale. I have alighted on the La Pavoni lever machine , from about 1981. Just a lever and a boiler and a steam wand, no pump to break, no complexity . It’s great . I imagine I could get something out if it even without electricity.
This and an old hand grinder , Dutch .
It will be my collapse go to.
I’ve been buying cheap Ethiopian beans and roasting batches of them with a solar cooker lately . That’s quite novel. It will stop in a week or two now we’re into the dog days.
All to save me £3.80 for daily latte
US boots on the ground now a certainty. But on the finance front (the other side of the candle being burnt, according to Hubbs): the chances of a rate increase now, perhaps across the West, must be above 90%, amirite?
But we really don’t have very many US boots to put on the ground. And it becomes hard to sell enough US debt without raising interest rates.
The squatter press published an article not long ago, on how the US could offer student debt erasure for anyone willing to sign up and erase their own future for the squatters. I don’t suppose the US press informed the population of what was being planned for them.
MacGregor says Islands always a bad idea. No place to run to and no place to hide. It was widely thought that Occupying Khargh island would result in extremely high casualties when ordnance was brought to bear. Saudi has a significant air force and probably ample ordnance. Perhaps even gravity bombs could be used.
And then more Saudi infrastructure gets destroyed.
What ended the Yemen Saudi war was Ansarallah use of precision ordnance on the Aramco plant. Now the same dynamic is used offensively. Saudi is paralyzed. If they execute military operations more infrastructure gets destroyed. They can of course ignore the proxy facade and hit Iran infrastructure.
With the disabling of the Yanbu pipeline Iran has made good it’s threat. If our oil doesn’t move no one’s oil moves.
Only 30 months to go. In a year we should have a idea what the new equilibrium looks like. Yanbu closed the leak. Zero energy output from the gulf. You cant go below zero with real things. Now it’s a waiting game.
Bab El mandeb matters a lot less if Yanbu is not exporting and Hormuz is not exporting. All that’s left is consumer goods to Europe and those can go around the cape assuming bunker oil is still viable.
“With the disabling of the Yanbu pipeline Iran has made good its threat. If our oil doesn’t move no one’s oil moves.”
It seems like a lot of things go wrong without sufficient cheap oil, however. Repaying debt with interest becomes a problem. Debt collapses seem likely, for example.
Recent developments are so dreadful and ominous.
How are we all feeling:
1/ Numb?
2/ Resigned and Fatalistic?
3/ Depressed?
4/Terrified?
5/ Still slightly hopeful that it won’t be quite as bad as it looks?
I probably experience the full rage of responses during the day, except for terrified.
However, the beautiful pedigree – Birman – stray cat which befriended me the other week has sneaked into the house with her three new kittens, so every day I can start by saying hello to a basket of kittens!
This is better even than Tim’s charming Japanese cat videos.
And, for a time, I can occupy myself with their fate instead of my own.
I have that sinking feeling, Xabier. I did not think we would see the crisis level rising fast and so far. We are definitely deep into the so called “Fourth turning” now. Where will be this time next year? We have yet to see severe damage to our everyday life and economy here in England – but just wait!
I’ve had ‘that sinking feeling’ for so long it has become, in a way, normalised and I don’t really notice it anymore.
Thankfully, I do not have a depressive temperament, which also helps.
Where indeed will we be in Merrie England a year, or even 6 months from now? !
I long ago decided it was important to live somewhere with a sufficient measure of natural beauty in order to counter-balance the probably awful things to come- which means, here in Eastern England, big skies.
I’ll give up the ghost when they are sprayed out, but not before!
I could move to a very beautiful part of Wales, with fantastic walking opportunities, but things are deteriorating so fast I don’t feel that is practical anymore, would lose all direct contact with remaining friends, and maybe get burnt to toast into the bargain……
Xabier wrote:
“I long ago decided it was important to live somewhere with a sufficient measure of natural beauty in order to counter-balance the probably awful things to come- which means, here in Eastern England, big skies.”
Which raises the question, which place boasts the SMALLEST skies in the world? In fact, I’m pretty sure the sky is the same size all over the world, Xabier, so you’ve wasted your money. If you think you have access to a sky measurer who can prove me wrong, do let me know, but they’re in short supply these days. I would at least insist that he has a degree in geography.
Forgive me, though – a bit of oinky sarcasm helps keep my spirits up in these times. 😉
I’m 1, 2 and 5.
At the same time, I am averting my eyes so I don’t have to witness the full horror of it all.
Let’s stock up on essential luxuries such as Mocha coffee beans while we still have the chance.
And dog food. Can’t have too much dog food.
Myself I like variety. One day Hudson. One day Sigourney. One day Vasquez.
I went to COSTCO today and bought a little extra food to have on hand.
Feeling normal with ambient temperature continuing to increase …
Some years back after we’d gone through the snakeflu dramatics, next was the Russian move with the SMO. I asked a neighbour what he thought of what was happening in Europe and his vehement response was “I don’t care!”
At the time I was puzzling the failure of a lifetime of our attempting to oppose the destruction of nature, vehicle proliferation, the politics of corporate expansion, etc etc and why it has all turned out the way it has. I was beginning to appreciate the dynamics of the MPP, which makes the futility of the little guys’ efforts inevitable against the jaws of Moloch. What we do doesn’t make any difference.
About then, Reante posted an acerbic remark that a commenter here should read the Phaedo. I’d read some of Plato, the Republic and some other dialogues, but not this one which I read. Wow! I then tackled the Apology, a screamingly funny denouement of western greed and Socrates determined response, which showed me that the struggle against the nature of power in his society had been the same as that that I’d experienced. These two dialogues also brought to mind a strong parallel between underlying buddhist philosophy of letting go of attachment
To some, it appears as indifference. But it’s not that I don’t care. I do, particularly when seeing the ongoing destruction of the natural world, but for the sake of my peace of mind I have to reject despair, anger and fear; and by orientation I’m not a particularly optimistic spirit.
I am really struggling emotionally Xabier. A big change between this year and last. I came into this doomosphere in 2015 but this year feels like the worst by far.
” I am really struggling emotionally Xabier. ”
Don’t . Get unto the fifth stage of grief ” acceptance” .
15 years ago I got into prepping and joined the ” Transition Towns ” and ” Perma culture society” in Belgium . Then I came across ” shortonoil” and the Hills Report and understood the futility of of it all . At the next meetings I asked the question ” While I like the work our societies are doing , what will we do when the mob turns up at the gate because you are the only community in a 20 Kms radius that has food ” . All were stunned , no answer . I left thereafter and decided I will just go ” My way” . I have oft said ” Only in a world of unlimited resources can men live as brothers ” . Ever wonder why the brothel houses all over the world never run out of fresh meat ? The parents will sell their children for the next meal . As I write I just learnt about child trafficking in the poorest of the poor parts of India done by an investigative journalist . Girls are being sold for $ 1.00 ( ONE) to traffickers . They are then injected with growth hormones so that they grow breasts and then off they go . Sorry , but this is so distressing , this is even beyond my wildest imagination . 😭. Take care and be well .
P.S ; Old timers here know about “shortonoil ” and ” The Hill report” .
Writing on the wall?
Shell puts longtime U.S. headquarters on the market for $325 million as it shrinks Houston footprint
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/real-estate/article/shell-office-houston-headquarters-sell-energy-22401095.php
Not a growing company:
“The Woodcreek campus is being marketed as a sale-leaseback opportunity. Shell would lease a little more than half the campus for 15 years from the new owners, while vacating roughly half the complex, according to marketing materials obtained by the Chronicle.”
Also rather certain Shell isn’t a US company.
Shell seems to be out of London, so the lack of North Sea oil affects them more directly. Also, UK politics. The biggest US oil and gas companies are Exxon and Chevron.
Halliburton left Houston for Dubai around 10 years ago. I remember it being controversial because they got a bunch of govt contracts for Iraq.
Didn’t they used to be called Royal Dutch Shell?
British, Dutch and I’d be surprised if the Danish rulers didn’t have a percentage(amazing how often they are in the background).
You are right. They used to be called Royal Dutch Shell. This is a link to a History page.
https://www.shell.com/who-we-are/our-history/our-company-history.html
It was founded through the merger of two different companies, back in 1907.
“In the Netherlands, the plc Royal Dutch Company for the Exploitation of Petroleum Wells in the Dutch East Indies was founded.” The Dutch East Indies is now part of Indonesia.
Shell was in the Import-Export business. It had been founded in 1833 by Marcus Samuel. When he died in 1870, the business was passed down to his two sons who wanted to expand it. According to the link:
“In the 1880s they became particularly interested in the oil exporting business but shipping still posed a problem as oil was carried in barrels which could leak and took up a lot of space. To solve the problem, they commissioned a fleet of steamers to carry oil in bulk, including the Murex which, in 1892, became the first oil tanker to pass through the Suez Canal.”
Wikipedia says, “Shell plc is a British multinational oil and gas company, headquartered in London, England.”
Got this off Reddit “Houston” page. According to local people on that sub. All of Shell’s new hiring is happening in India. And its been like that for a little while. (according to people posting so grain of salt)
Shell hiring could be with respect to refineries in India. India has low wages. But the refineries would need enough oil coming in–mostly from the Middle East and Russia, I would expect.
When a Chart Worth a Thousand Words: Saudi Oil Exports from Western Ports .
https://anasalhajjieoa.substack.com/p/public-no-paywall-when-a-chart-worth-e23?r=8x05sd&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web
That’s cause they peaked.
You just don’t understand how to read between the lines.
It is difficult to read the time scale along the bottom. The total time involved is quite short–much shorter than supply peaking.
I think this chart has to do with the ability to get oil out of Saudi Arabia from its port on the western side of the peninsula. This, in turn, has to do with the control by the Houthis of exports through the Red Sea.
Flying under the radar . All the oil leaks and waste from the stranded ships is leading to algae blooms and clogging of desalination plants .
https://www.enr.com/articles/63627-algae-bloom-disrupts-five-plants-in-desalination-dependent-israel
Wow! Israel can lose in ways we never thought about:
Algae Bloom Disrupts Five Plants in Desalination-Dependent Israel
Two facilities remain offline as an unprecedented event tests coastal infrastructure supplying much of the country’s drinking water
JUST IN 🚨: Diesel soars to highest price in history
https://x.com/Barchart/status/2098154030409056735
Everything we consume comes on truck, ship or plane. (all Diesel engines) gasoline get too hot! (read Alice’s book “When trucks stop running”.
This is real DOOM!
Gonna need Trump’s 5K check to afford $20 loaf of bread soon!
Remember when COVID was first in China like in October and people were dropping and coughing up fluorescent pink froth and the doomers were going uhh this doesn’t look good? And all the normies were like whatever your tripping but around Christmas they all went into a COVID fear panic like throwing a switch.
That’s where we are at. We crossed the Rubicon today.
Those videos were as fake as SPACEX.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/10/houthis-seize-key-port-mocha-yemen-red-sea-coast-iran-saudi-arabia-us
Houthis seize key Yemeni port of Mocha in drive to take control of Red Sea coast
Iran and its proxies move closer to full control of two shipping chokepoints as regional conflict widens
Saudi east west Yanbu pipeline reported hit by Ansarallah multiple places unconfirmed.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/brent-tops-102-mideast-escalation-threatens-hormuz-flows-hsbc-hike-oil-forecast
Wow! If confirmed:
Yemen’s armed forces targeted Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline; satellite data shows fires at six points along the route that transports crude oil from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea. (IRIB News)
Many pundits saying not looking good. Oil will rip tomorrow.
https://x.com/CRUDEOIL231/status/2098158488497328312
You are right. WTI at $103.84 at the end of the trading day today.
Maybe Trump can announce he is in talks and deal soon? I’m afraid it’s reality time and not the kind on TV. More tankers hit in south passage.
https://x.com/BrettErickson28/status/2098156025346228389
This is truly disturbing:
Brett Erickson
@BrettErickson28
Breaking: On what has already been a
DISASTROUS day for the global energy markets, Iran has now added to the mess by striking TWO tankers attempting to cross along the Omani Route, causing one to catch fire.
Just to make sure I have everything straight over the last 24 hours, we have:
– Brent reaching $109/barrel (+7.7% today)
– Diesel reaching $6/gallon for the first time in US HISTORY
– Houthis sprinting towards control over the Bab Al-Mandeb
– Houthis potentially striking the Saudi East-West Pipeline
– WTI reaching above $100/barrel
Video and satellite footage on this channel of what is going on in Saudi.
https://x.com/Gazawins12
> Breaking | Satellite images show a major fire breaking out south of Medina in Saudi Arabia, and it’s likely that the Yemeni Houthi army targeted oil pipelines in that area.
> Urgent | Saudi Arabia’s oil refineries are burning now
The fires have spiraled out of control, reaching the neighborhood adjacent to the oil facilities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
This looks terrible! It is probably best to post your link up at the top. It is easier for people to see.
Trump has chucked his presidency for Israel.
Voters are mainly concerned about inflation, and Trump’s illegal, unnecessary and unprovoked war against Iran on behalf of Israel has pushed up energy prices for consumers in the USA, and worsened the cost of living crisis for ordinary Americans.
Trump completely lied to American voters that he would start no more foreign wars, and that he would bring down inflation. The midterms will give American voters a chance to say exactly what they think about being lied to like that.
https://www.axios.com/2026/09/07/iran-gas-prices-diesel-100-billion
Iran war drives $100 billion in extra energy costs for U.S. consumers
The war in Iran has now cost U.S. consumers $100 billion in higher energy prices, and the bill is rising another $1 million about every two minutes, per a real-time estimate from Brown University as of Monday morning.
Why it matters: Energy inflation shows up across the entire economy, and the recent surge in diesel prices in particular threatens to have a dramatic impact on freight and travel in the weeks and months to come.
By the numbers: The Iran War Energy Cost Tracker from Brown’s Watson School says higher gasoline and diesel prices have cost the average U.S. household more than $760 since the war began Feb. 28.
Most of that is gas, though the diesel burden is rising faster of late.
On Friday, diesel hit an all-time record high, and it’s continued to rise every day since. As of Monday morning it’s at $5.90 a gallon, per AAA, up about 60% from a year ago.
Between the lines: Texas has borne the biggest share, with consumers paying around $11 billion in extra gas and diesel costs since the war began in late February, per the tracker.
California and Florida are next, at about $8 billion and $5 billion, respectively.
Yet voters consistently say inflation is their most important issue, and on that subject they give the president substantial negative marks.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-approval-rating-new-poll-iran-war-economy-b3045676.html
Trump approval rating drops to record low in new poll
Pessimism about the US economy and the impact of war in Iran driving record low numbers
Donald Trump’s approval rating has dropped to a record low in a major poll, presenting a headache for Republicans in the lead up to the midterm elections.
Less than two months before November’s elections, a Financial Times poll carried out by Focaldata found that only 33 percent of registered voters approve of Trump’s performance as president.
This is the lowest number recorded since the newspaper began asking the question in May and a three-point decrease from the previous month.
Pessimism about the economy and the cost of living among Americans was a primary reason for Trump’s dropping numbers, the poll suggested, as the majority of those polled rejected his trade and tariff policy.
Almost two-thirds of registered voters said they believed the economy was heading in the wrong direction, and 57 percent said they were worse off financially under the Trump presidency.
Only 53 percent of Republican voters said they were in favor of how Trump has handled jobs and the economy, representing an almost eight-point drop from the previous month.
It comes as fuel costs hit an unprecedented high in the U.S. on Friday, with diesel soaring to a record national average of $5.85 a gallon as the ongoing war with Iran continues to disrupt global fuel flows.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-cnn-harry-enten-inflation-polls-b3046866.html
Trump’s favorite CNN star delivers ‘worst-ever’ polling news to him
President Trump is the first U.S. president to record a net inflation rating 50 points underwater, CNN data guru Harry Enten said
Donald Trump’s favorite CNN journalist, Harry Enten, revealed his “historically awful” polling numbers on inflation Tuesday, noting that the president’s approval rating is “lower than the Titanic.”
Trump’s net approval on inflation has held steady at about 50 points underwater. Reuters/Ipsos polling put it at -52 in May, -48 in June and -50 in both July and August.
“These numbers are historically awful and they’ve been historically awful for a long period of time. You just don’t ever see numbers like this,” Enten said Tuesday.
Enten, CNN’s Chief Data Analyst, rattled off the numbers by month and then exclaimed: “I mean, it’s lower than the Titanic, for goodness sake.”
Trump had recorded the 11 worst individual presidential polls on inflation “of all time” since April. He is also the first U.S. president to record a net inflation rating 50 points underwater, Enten said.
“No other president?” CNN’s John Berman asked. “You’re telling me this is worse than it was for Joe Biden in 2022?”
Enten noted that former President Joe Biden’s inflation rating was 38 points underwater in August 2022 — but was also improving at the time.
Inflation was a key issue during the 2024 presidential race, and saw voters side with Trump over White House opponent Kamala Harris. Enten described the change since then as a 60-point swing against Trump.
“There is no sign of improvement on this issue of inflation. The issue that got Donald Trump reelected to the White House and is still the number one issue in the minds of the American electorate,” Enten said. “He’s stuck 50 points underwater in a place that no other president has ever been before.”
Trump recently deemed Enten his favorite CNN reporter. Following years of declaring the network as “fake news,” he took a moment last month to laud its chief data analyst on Truth Social.
“The best person on CNN Is Pollster Harry Enten, because he was willing to show that Donald J. Trump is six times more popular than Abraham Lincoln, George Washington, or any other President — He’s got Credibility (Don’t fire him!)” Trump wrote.
However, if attacking Iran was what the Power that Be wanted, Trump needed to follow orders. The economic system was starting to come apart, and Trump needed to show that US-Israel could win. Of course, it can’t really.
I think Trumps job may have been to damage the US.
Likewise with Biden, Obama and Bush.
They’re all the same.
The reason why certain segments of the population despised them was because their policies were designed to damage them, knock them out of their spot in the game of musical chairs. Most of modern politics is about rationalizing why certain people deserve to lose.
We can be certain that he is following orders, with a little leeway being granted to him only in matters of presentation and really very minor policies.
The ‘dementia’ is no doubt also an act, serving as a distraction from the underlying trend and aims of US policy and the true global situation.
The former spooks claiming that Trump is ‘out of control’ and ignoring experts are also, mostly , actors.
Trump is just a pawn in the scheme of things, we and the powers that be know that the oil age is finite and there are not many years left for the oil age perhaps as little as 5 years under BAU.
What would you do if that was the case?
What would be a temporary solution to extend our expiration time here on Earth?
A Great Depression could buy us a few more decades…. enabling the powers that be to fight the good fight and save the day.
This is the only sensible reason that the powers that be are doing what they are doing.
Ok this is a bit on the paranoid side. My local Walmart has the best prices on canned goods. They are doing a remodel. I judged this as a security thing. Police are there a lot I assume for shoplifters. The higher dollar items cosmetics and clothing were moved to the front of the store in little enclaves with a cash register there. One way in one way out away from more secluded parts of the store.
The canned vegetables beans and fruit shelves were a half of a full aisle before. This went to 1/3 of half a aisle. 33 percent of before I and other customers crowded in front of the reduced array. Grumblings about products that disappeared. Stock was not great before on certain things often empty shelves for days at a time. Before there were large lengths of great value brand of certain things to keep up with demand. Corn. Green beans ten feet or so. These items very rarely went out of stock. These were now two feet or so of shelf space. Any particular item seemed to have half the shelf space. Things I know. Chili beans. Half.
Is transportation cost lowering profit margin on canned food? Heavy large volume items will be most effected.
Perhaps I’m a suspicious sort but it sure appeared this store appeared to be battening the hatches.
Where are you located?
Colorado.
The thing I would point out is that Walmart appeals to lower income shoppers. I think that that may have something to do with the issue. I haven’t particularly noticed the issue in the grocery store I shop in.
Walmart is probably aware of what its customers typically buy, and where its margins are highest. It is also aware of the shoplifting issue, especially in inner city areas. Have other commenters noticed this issue?
These are obvious foods for bulk stockpiling: reduce availability and stockpiling becomes more difficult.
Maybe a prelude to true rationing?
Interesting idea.
Or perhaps even a reflection of stockpiling already taking place, leading to a need to restrict future supplies.
États‑Unis, Arabie saoudite, Russie : à chacun sa manière de vaciller pour les trois grands du pétrole
https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/actualites/etats-unis-arabie-saoudite-russie-a-chacun-sa-maniere-de-vaciller-pour-les-trois-grands-du-petrole-4041603b02f9361ce614ea29685004c4
Translation:
United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia: each has its own way of faltering for the three oil giants
Key points:
–It’s a paradox: despite soaring prices, the three main oil producers are shaken.
–The crisis reveals that being a “big” producer is not enough to be powerful, especially when flows are disrupted.
–And, while oil remains essential, the energy transition is gradually weakening the power of these three leading countries.
The summer of 2026 tested the three pillars of global oil supply: the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Russia. None could act as a buffer. We are not yet in the post-oil era, but the conditions of oil power have changed. For consuming countries, Europe first and foremost, the lesson is clear. They can no longer rely on a benevolent, or even minimally reliable, producer to absorb shocks for them, and energy conservation, electrification, and diversification are ceasing to be climate policies and becoming, quite literally, security policies. . .
Washington, a power on a treadmill
The United States remains by far the world’s leading producer, with a record 13.6 Mb/d of crude in 2025, and today, together with the rest of the American continent, provides almost all of the available growth, an additional 1.4 Mb/d in 2026, according to the IEA.
But this dominance rests on a fragile mechanism: the conveyor belt. A shale well loses around 70% of its production in the first year, compared to about 15% per year for a conventional deposit. The vast majority of wells drilled each year are therefore not used for growth, but to compensate for the decline of previous wells. It’s a constant struggle to stay still.
This is where the sector’s behavior in 2026 becomes theoretically intriguing. Empirical literature had established that US shale was highly responsive to price. Richard Newell and Brian Prest estimated the net “price elasticity” of unconventional supply at around 1.2, and Hilde Bjørnland, Frode Nordvik, and Maximilian Rohrer, using data from over 16,000 sites in North Dakota, measured an elasticity of 0.3 to 0.9. This responsiveness had made shale the new regulator of the global market in the 2010s.
Nothing like that this year. The capital expenditure budgets of the major US operators have been set at around 5% lower for 2026, and the number of active drilling rigs in the Permian Basin has remained stable, even as crude oil prices have exceeded $100. The explanation is not geological.
After a decade of growth at any cost, resulting in massive capital destruction, shareholders are demanding dividends rather than volume. Consolidation has replaced dozens of aggressive independents with a few cautious majors, and the best acreage is becoming depleted. A producer who cannot adjust their supply at will is not a swing producer, but a particularly large price-taker.
Riyadh, a capacity that geography confiscates
. . .
Moscow, the scissor of volumes and value
A reformulation of the equation
The energy transition is indeed a factor that alters the terms of the problem. It initially mitigates the impact, modestly but effectively. The electrification of road transport has prevented approximately 1.7 million barrels per day of consumption in 2025, and the IEA projects that electric vehicles will account for around 30% of global new car sales in 2026. This proportion is expected to reach nearly 60% in China. These are barrels of oil that the Strait of Hormuz crisis did not have to eliminate through price increases.
It then shortens the time horizon. Since Harold Hotelling, we know that the holder of a finite stock decides between extracting today and extracting tomorrow, depending on the anticipated price. If demand for road fuels peaks at the end of the decade, the monetization window will subsequently narrow, and some studies offer insights into the capital threatened by this shift. This, as much as shareholder discipline, explains the caution of the American oil industry in the face of a $100 barrel.
Finally, it complicates the outlook. Hans-Werner Sinn has termed the reaction of resource owners—who, anticipating climate constraints, are accelerating current extraction—the “green paradox.” Applied to rentier states, this reasoning necessitates defending market share (and therefore producing) while simultaneously financing costly diversification (and thus supporting prices). These two imperatives are incompatible. This explains why OPEC+, which is completing the withdrawal of the voluntary production cuts decided upon in 2023 in September, now meets monthly without managing to establish a credible course beyond a few weeks.
A less dependent world, but no less vulnerable
Two symmetrical narratives are equally fragile. The first predicts the end of oil, and 2026 demonstrates the opposite, since a few million missing barrels were enough to destabilize the global economy. The second promises the perpetuation of oil wealth, even though the three largest producers have just shown that they no longer control the conditions of that wealth.
The actual situation is more uncomfortable. Structural dependence on oil is declining slowly, while the system’s buffers—reserve capacity, stocks, long-term investment, and redundancy of shipping routes—are deteriorating more rapidly. There is less oil in the economy, but it is more difficult to replace in the event of a shock.
What is ending, therefore, is not the era of oil, but that of comfortable oil power, where barrels of oil were converted into influence simply by opening or closing a valve, and according to the laws of commerce. The rent remains, but the authority that accompanied it is crumbling.
In the absence of external stabilization, consumer countries will have to internalize this insurance function as quickly as possible. What Europe presented as its climate agenda is thus becoming a security agenda.
Author: Patrice Geoffron – Professor of Economics, Paris Dauphine University – PSL
To me, the lack of investment and drilling new wells in the US is a sign that the US is indeed at peak shale output. I am not as convinced of the ideas of Harold Hotelling and Hans Woerner-Sinn. They do not understand the economy’s dependence on oil and the way the system really works.
They are paid to reassure so they reassure.
Telling people how the economy is dependent on oil and how the system really works would make them withdraw from the market and participation in society, which is not desirable for everyone so everyone chooses reassuring lies over reality.
Seems Scotty has ” bitten off more than he can chew ” . Bond traders calling his bluff .
Traders Brush Aside Scott Bessent’s ‘Bet Against Me’ Tough Talk .
https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/traders-brush-aside-scott-bessent-233552852.html
when it comes to perhaps the two most critical factors nudging bond yields and oil higher — the US budget deficit and the war in Iran — Bessent has limited influence.
“The market has called his bluff,” said Mark Spindel, founder and chief investment officer at Potomac River Capital. He said the massive federal deficit, coupled with concerns about the Federal Reserve’s ability to tame inflation, are overshadowing Bessent’s maneuvers. . .
Stephen Myrow, a managing partner at Beacon Policy Advisors and former Treasury official in the George W. Bush administration, said Bessent’s recent rhetoric echoes the style of Trump, who has repeatedly claimed imminent victory over Iran even as the war continues to drag on. He said that poses a risk if markets keep moving against him.
They are trapped. Fed should raise because of inflation. Inflation that’s a different animal because it’s supply side. Fed can’t raise because it will destroy bonds, hyperscalers,real estate and everything else.
They will take inflation. They always do. Stagflation. With no Saudi to rescue pumping this time like the 70s.
Mortgage index hits 7 percent. And fed is going to raise? Fed is powerless locked. Both inflation and rates will go where they will.
https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates
So, you are saying that rates will stay flat, even if inflation goes up. They certainly can’t cut rates.
People were highlighting that is scenario could have been a consequence of their covid lockdowns years ago. They decided to take this path.
India becomes a sugar importer from being a sugar exporter and now Qatar becomes a LNG importer from an exporter . These are tipping points .
” The world’s biggest LNG seller is shopping for American gas.
QatarEnergy is reportedly seeking long-term LNG supply from the United States, from plants already running and from projects still under construction.
Read that twice… ”
https://x.com/jackprandelli/status/2098069106301820956/photo/1
Wow! Qatar has become a buyer, rather than a seller, of natural gas. They actually want to buy it on long-term contracts, indicating that they don’t expect their production back quickly.
Europe has been trying to buy natural gas without using contracts. This has hurt them in the past, because Japan and other Asian countries were quite willing to outbid Europe.
Right now, US Henry Hub natural gas prices seem to be slightly lower than one year ago. Thus, at this point, there is no big problem in terms of prices.
It has recently looked as if LNG might be somewhat oversupplied because of its high cost of production and large planned increases in output. So perhaps, the loss of Qatar LNG may not adversely affect the total world amount available–it may bring total production down in line with what countries can afford. For example, India really needs natural gas, but it cannot afford high-priced LNG.
One thing not commented on here is the fact that the US has tripled the long term Treasury buyback rate. In true banana republic style, they first doubled, then had a think, and decided to triple it. 6B a day now. Of course to buy back the 10 and 30 year bonds they need to issue 2 and 5 years bonds. It is a clear cut sign of financial crisis.
This suggests that soon the US will be moving in the direction of using all 30- to 90-day paper to fund the economy.
Is it not USD6B per buying day and not USD6B every day?
Today the treasury sold USD2.6B of new 30yr bonds at 5.31% yield compared to USD2.4B at 5.22% at their previous auction
Mental health in adolescents: Girls attempt to take their own lives significantly more often than boys. Among adults, the situation is the reverse
“Adolescents behave differently
In 2025, a total of 832 men and 490 women attempted suicide. However, whilst 79 women died as a result of their attempts, the figure for men was as high as 430. This difference is mainly due to the fact that men tend to choose more brutal methods of suicide, where the chance of survival is lower.However, the situation is markedly different among adolescents.
Last year, 42 boys aged between 15 and 19 and 71 girls of the same age attempted suicide. However, 11 boys and three girls died as a result of their attempts.
Up until around 2014, the difference in the number of unsuccessful suicide attempts amongst adolescents was not particularly large; however, after that year, this figure began to rise significantly amongst girls.
It peaked in 2022, when there were almost 90 attempts per 100,000 girls. For boys, the figure was 24.5.”
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)”
https://www.postoj.sk/199945/dievcata-sa-pokusaju-ukoncit-svoj-zivot-vyrazne-castejsie-nez-chlapci-u-dospelych-je-to-naopak
“The pandemic has accelerated this development
This trend is not limited to Slovakia; it can be said that it is a global issue. The mental health of young girls is at greater risk than that of boys.
According to initial research, one reason for this may be that the pandemic has had a greater impact on them. IZA analysts cite a study by researchers at the University of Washington, which showed how the pandemic has affected the maturation of children’s brains.
A comparison of MRI data from before and after the pandemic revealed a significant difference between the sexes: in girls, the pandemic led to accelerated brain maturation, whilst this effect was not observed in boys.
Whilst changes in boys were observed in only two areas of the brain, in girls the cortex thinned significantly in as many as 30 areas – particularly those responsible for regulating emotions and interpersonal perception.
“The estimated acceleration in development reached up to 4.2 years, which corresponds to ‘premature maturity’ of the brain under conditions of chronic stress,” explain the analysts.
However, this is just one study. Other factors may also influence the acceleration of brain development, so no definitive conclusions can be drawn from it alone.
Social media is also largely to blame for the deteriorating mental health of girls. Its negative impact has now been proven, as has the fact that adolescent girls are particularly vulnerable to it.”
At age 17 I was quite popular in high school, one my girlfriends “attempted to take her own life” with pills. The result was that I stayed by her side more while I neglected the other girls, and we became a stable couple.
With these topics, reactions fall under “you guys are losers” or ” Heh heh! I’m glad things worked out for me and mine”.
As mentioned Ansarallah forces are on the move in Yemen and significant combat is occuring. Ansarallah entered the port of Mokha increasing their ability to deploy force over the Bab El mandeb.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g7vr0lngwo
Houthis control ~80% of the Yemen population. The Saudi proxy government controls the oil and gas fields. Likely this is going to end with the expulsion of the proxy government.
Interesting. How did you become aware of this?
Yemen is far past “peal oil.” This is a chart I made years ago of its oil production.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/yemen-oil-production-and-consumption.png
My guess is that whatever it is producing now is mostly natural gas, and natural gas doesn’t sell for very much. This leads to an economy with little revenue.
This is with a map so one can understand the significance .
“The Houthis are in the process of controlling the islands in the middle of the Red Sea, giving them fire control over traffic.
Brace for impact. ”
https://x.com/tleilax___/status/2098094926500122759/photo/1
Controlling the island was mentioned as an important issue in the Zerohedge article I linked earlier. Now it looks like it may be happening.
Those island’s are the two that the UAE and the genocidal illegal squatters have been developing militarily.
I’ve been away fishing with no internet for a few days and suprised Mocha fell so quickly. I knew AnsarAllah were going to go in from two directions(Monday), but all over so fast is impressive.
https://english.masirahtv.net/post/58045/Military-Expert-West-Coast-Liberation-Shatters-Greater-Israel-Scheme
Got home a couple of hours ago and two bags of Haraz coffee were delivered this morning, so perfect coffee from the centre of AnsarAllah territory to sip while catching up on all the good news(I’m tempted to quote Ghalibaf’s words from the other day).
You’ve probably seen this, but for others, some more maps
https://indi.ca/the-yemen-war-in-7-maps/
Ghalibaf’s words are covered at the above link(different articles).
FYI Ansarallah = Houthis.
BREAKING: Today, for the first time, Yemen struck Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, which carries crude oil from Abqaiq to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast
Multiple fire hotspots were detected at six points along the pipeline route at roughly the same time, around 17:56 UTC.
https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/36624
A follow up on the tungsten problem we read about recently:
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/not-behind-us-major-us-tool-distributor-warns-tungsten-cost-shock-hitting-factory
Speaking at the Jefferies Industrials Conference earlier on Wednesday, MSC Industrial executive Martina McIsaac warned of a tungsten supply shock rippling through the company’s supply chain and continuing to drive up industrial tooling costs.
McIsaac told Steve Volkmann, an industrial analyst at Jefferies, that inflation affecting tungsten carbide inputs is “in the neighborhood of 500%” and said suppliers were still passing higher costs through the manufacturing chain.
Wow! If those costs are passed on to the consumer, it will very much add to inflation.
I think we need to re-examine the causes and consequences of inflation.
I understand that when you print currency, prices will increase once the money has been released into the economy. This assumes no other ongoing problems such as a deficiency of energy or materials. This is demand-pull inflation, where the economy, stock market, and wealth creation may continue. This is the traditional “monetary cause” as I understand it.
But when there is a physical lack of raw materials or energy to make things, we have cost-push inflation. There is a difference, because cost-push inflation, while initially causing nominal prices to increase, eventually consumes itself, as customers have to cut back on purchases of other more discretionary items, which could suddenly result in a recession as certain industries can no longer sell their products to cash-strapped consumers.
So I gave up trying to understand this. I am aware of the differences, I think, but can not predict it. Economics is indeed a DISMAL SCIENCE promoted by useless parasites who are always hawking their financial newsletters, always exploiting this uncertainty with the usual disclaimers that something “could,” ” might,” “may,” or “possibly” happen. The system is too complex for anyone to be able to predict when and how. And this spans the entire spectrum from “pseudo-savvy” (or articulate bullshitters) people Jim Rickards, Martin Armstrong, Chris Martinson, George Gammon, to people who understand the principles of economics but can not apply them like Peter Schiff, to people who have never done a productive thing in their lives like Dave Mahoney or Maneco64, to off the wall people like Bo Polny, Liz Alton, etc.
An unsound monetary debt-based fiat fractional-reserve system guarantees creation and expansion of useless, non-productive people. From lawyers, to bankers, to financial analysts, stock traders ( also encouraged by favorable capital gains tax rates to “enourage “ necessary investment needed to promote “growth.”)
Economic growth. Growth. Growth. Growth. We need economic growth! I am so sick and tired of hearing this mantra spewed by these useless politicians who are trying to get reelected.
We need to lower the number of humans to the point where they can live off of wood lots and stream feed hydro. 100X will certainly do it.
How much are the powers that be paying for your disinfo campaign in the comments section here?
Actuaries are ones who benefited from all of this growth. The high interest rates of the 1970s made actuaries assume that “of course” high positive returns could be made on investments. The way the stock market has run up since then has reinforced this idea.
If they would stop and think, they would realize that growth cannot continue indefinitely in a finite world. But most of them very much want BAU to continue indefinitely. That is what pays their paychecks.
I agree. We are dealing with two different issues. Higher costs of production are pretty much impossible to pass on to the rest of the economy, without pushing it into recession.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IQV-pMuKvc
Google entering the zeta flop era. See 7:35 min. That is 10E21. Holy cow. Just right for ASI. Bernie file an injunction.
Please note no white male cartoon people were used is this presentation.
The title of this video is “Google’s new beast: Ironwood TPU System Architecture and Performance.”
Note this TPU can really only do tensor flow calculations. It is an extremely specialized computer. You could not browse the internet in it, or install any app. Still, I am moderately impressed by the technical achievement. Also the spped is greatly aided by the data staying “on chip” through the entire calculation.
This well beyond the compute ability of a human brain. Exciting times.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBK2WX7TA4g
Deep state campaign to keep SAI out of the hands of the common person.
Talks about fear of Democrats gaining power and regulating AI to the point that it is no longer useful.
But that is only in the US. If China has much cheaper AI, it will do as it pleases, I would expect.
LOL. Well yes and no. Deepseek does not care about Bernie. But try talking Chinese politics and it shuts up fast. Also no talk about military matters.
But that aside Deepseek is my favorite AI for learning (my learning). They (pronouns are important, the companies development team) just did an update today now it gives very long answers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BnuK6eKiGZ4
Cerebras faster, cheaper, larger SAI. Take that Bernie.
10x more tokens per watt
It does sound very impressive. The blurb says:
Cerebras has unveiled the CS-4 and WSE-3 Turbo, its latest wafer-scale AI computing system designed to challenge traditional GPU-based AI infrastructure. Instead of cutting a silicon wafer into hundreds of individual chips, Cerebras turns almost the entire wafer into one enormous AI processor, and the new CS-4 pushes that idea further than ever. [Emphasis added.]
The Cerebras WSE-3 Turbo packs 4 trillion transistors, 900,000 AI-optimized cores and 44GB of on-chip SRAM, while delivering up to 250 PFLOPS of AI compute and 43.2 PB/s of memory bandwidth per wafer. The CS-4 combines three WSE-3 Turbo processors in one rack for 750 PFLOPS of AI performance and 129.6 PB/s of aggregate memory bandwidth. In this video, we break down Cerebras CS-4 vs GPU-based AI systems, its claimed 4,400+ tokens per second on GPT-OSS-120B, ultra-low-latency AI inference, Direct Wafer Links, the new Nexus architecture, and the Wafer Scale Backpack. We also explore why Cerebras believes faster inference could transform AI agents, large language models, and next-generation AI data centers.
As NVIDIA, AMD, AWS, and Cerebras compete to power increasingly massive AI models, wafer-scale computing could become one of the most interesting alternatives to conventional AI GPUs.
I started in the semicon industry in the 90s. These current new products are like magic to me. A pleasant way to end.
“A pleasant way to end.”
To END?! Which country do you reside in, Ed? I’m sure there are laws against going round spreading apathy and defeatism. >:(
“These current new products are like magic to me.”
From the internet:
Arthur C. Clarke formulated the third law, which states that “any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” This principle suggests that technological capabilities far beyond current human understanding appear supernatural to observers unfamiliar with the underlying science.
The law has become a cornerstone of speculative fiction, influencing works ranging from Star Trek and Harry Potter to Thor, where advanced alien or divine powers are rationalized as science rather than mysticism.
Computers that don’t require user input sound like magic.
A.I. does not exist or else the biggest concern would be a.i. powered hacking.
A.I. is vaporware, on par with quantum computers, cryogenics and “cold fusion”.
This is at the mouth of the Red Sea. Houthis are closely allied with Iran.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/houthis-seize-yemeni-port-mocha-giving-greater-leverage-over-bab-al-mandab-strait
Houthis Seize Yemeni Port Of Mocha, Gaining Greater Leverage Over Bab Al Mandab Strait
Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi militants (Ansar Allah) have scored a major victory against Saudi-backed government forces, after the war was fiercely reinvigorated this month, having seized a historic Red Sea port on Thursday which effectively givens the Houthis even greater leverage over the Bab Al Mandab Strait.
The port of Mocha – also spelled Mokha or Al Makha – once stood at the center of the global coffee trade and is a common household name internationally, but now is also the place from where Iranian proxies could further squeeze global energy markets.
According to the latest on the fluid battle lines via Reuters, “The group [Ansar Allah] has launched attacks on the strategic Red Sea islands of Hanish, pushing government forces and their allies south to Dhubab, which sits directly on the strait across from the island of Perim, the Yemeni sources told Reuters on Thursday.” And more: “Control of Dhubab and the island is key to gaining hold of the strait, they said.” . . .
Fresh unconfirmed reports Thursday say that the Houthis have now actually reached the Red Sea islands of Hanish. If true this would be a further strategic advantage for taking more coastline.
Google maps shows that the two main islands are about 8 miles across. There are a few more rocks. I assume the US could come in and “liberate” those islands to claim a victory. But in the past they have been successfully targeted by Yemen while being on the other side of the Red Sea.
Confirmation of earlier post .
” The first-half shortfall has exceeded Qatar’s original full-year forecast. Doha has said cuts to operating spending exclude salaries and capital projects, while European gas buyers face delivery cancellations extending into early November as the Iran war postpones revenue.
Qatar’s budget deficit more than doubled to 21.2bn riyals (€5bn) in the second quarter of 2026, the Ministry of Finance announced on Tuesday.
The deficit stood at 10.3bn riyals (€2.44bn) in the first quarter.
Total revenue reached about 25.6bn riyals (€6.06bn), while expenditure amounted to approximately 46.9bn riyals (€11.1bn). ”
https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/09/09/qatars-budget-deficit-more-than-doubles-to-5bn-in-second-quarter-amid-lng-disruption
This is terrible news for the economy of Qatar. How do they provide services for their people?